A Bundle Of English Reports, News and Editorials For November 20-21/2019 Addressing the On Going Mass Demonstrations & Sit In-ins In Iranian Occupied Lebanon in its 35th Day
Compiled By: Elias Bejjani
November 20-21/2019
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on November 20-210/2019
Protests Continuing in Lebanon as Uprising Enters Day 35
Aoun to Address Nation on Eve of Independence Day
Lebanese minister, two ex-ministers could face corruption trial
Lebanese protesters released by security forces, Aoun discusses oil
Khalaf Helps Release Protesters Held Tuesday in Riad al-Solh
Berri Says ‘Bloodshed Scheme’ Defeated on Tuesday
Ammar Says Security Forces Stood Idly By as MPs were being ‘Insulted’
Jumblat Says Presidential Term, Taef Accord Have ‘Ended’
Report: Hizbullah, AMAL ‘Dismayed’ by Security, Military Strategy with Protesters
Protesters in Sidon Close Money Exchange and Transfer Shops
Jarrah to hold press conference Thursday on Ibrahim’s lawsuit
Hale: White House Holding Up Lebanon Security Aid
Young Lebanese Protesters Demand Better Future — at Home
Lebanese Army Rejects Bloodshed in Dealing with Protesters
Lebanon: President’s Conditions Complicate Cabinet Formation Process
Young Lebanese Protesters Demand Better Future — at Home
The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on November 20-21/2019
Protests Continuing in Lebanon as Uprising Enters Day 35
Naharnet/November 20/2019
University and school students in several parts in north Lebanon skipped classes on Wednesday in a stand of solidarity with Lebanon’s uprising and the latest arrests of protesters in Beirut’s Downtown area. In Akkar’s al-Joumeh area students staged sit-in “in solidarity with the incidents in Riad al-Solh,” in Beirut said the National News Agency. Three protesters were injured and several arrested –released Wednesday– in scuffles with riot police in Riad al-Solh Square Tuesday evening. Activists invited Lebanon’s schools to suspend classes and partake in a sit-in held Akkar’s town of al-Ayoun. Also in Akkar, protesters blocked several major roads protesting the incident. In the city’s major square in Halba and in the town of Rahbeh protesters marched the streets forcing the closure of institutions, banks, private and public schools. Moreover, in al-Koura district a number of students gathered on the campus of Balamand University in solidarity with the demands of the popular movement. Lebanon has since October 17 been rocked by an unprecedented wave of popular street revolt that have cut across sectarian lines. Lebanon’s parliament, besieged by angry protesters , for a second time postponed on Tuesday a session to discuss draft laws which critics charge would let corrupt politicians off the hook. After a morning of noisy demonstrations outside the chamber, and after several political parties had said they would boycott the session, parliament official Adnane Daher appeared before TV cameras announcing the news. Tuesday evening, NNA said the Riad al-Solh skirmishes broke out after some protesters tried to cross the barbed wire and enter into Nejmeh Square where parliament building is located.
Aoun to Address Nation on Eve of Independence Day
Naharnet/November 20/2019
President Michel Aoun will make an address to the nation at 8:00 pm Thursday, which will be broadcast on the various Lebanese TV and radio networks, the Presidency said. The speech marks Lebanon’s Independence Day and will tackle the current situations and latest developments, the Presidency added.Separately, the president called newly-elected Beirut Bar Association chief Melhem Khalaf to congratulate him on his election. Khalaf, who is a prominent civil society figure, is backed by the protest movement that has been sweeping Lebanon since October 17.
Lebanese minister, two ex-ministers could face corruption trial
Reuters, Beirut/Thursday, 21 November 2019
Lebanon’s caretaker information minister and two former telecoms ministers could face trial on charges of wasting public funds after their cases were referred to a special judicial panel set up to try top officials. The decision by a prosecutor to refer the cases to the Supreme Council for the Trial of Presidents and Ministers, according to judicial sources and state news agency NNA, follows protests fueled partly by corruption. The charges are among the first to be brought against high-level officials since the start of the unrest, triggered by dire economic conditions and anger against a ruling class seen as pillaging the state’s resources and driving it into crisis. NNA and the judicial sources said the officials referred to the Supreme Council by financial prosecutor Ali Ibrahim were information minister Jamal al-Jarrah and former telecoms ministers Nicolas Sehnaoui and Boutros Harb.
In remarks to NNA, Jarrah called the proceedings “part of a political campaign” to defame him. He said the financial prosecutor had no legal right to refer the case to the council, a move he said requires a two-thirds vote from parliament.
Posting to Twitter, Sehnaoui said: “I am fully prepared to appear before the competent judiciary, confident in there being no impurity in my practice of public affairs in the service of my country.” Harb declined to comment to Reuters until he had further information about the charges. NNA did not provide further details about the exact nature of the corruption allegations. The protests that have swept the country, and brought down Prime Minister Saad Hariri, were ignited on Oct. 17 by a government proposal to tax WhatsApp calls, a measure that was quickly scrapped. The country has only two mobile service providers, both state owned, and some of the most costly mobile rates in the region, a common grievance among Lebanese
Lebanese protesters released by security forces, Aoun discusses oil
Staff writer, Al Arabiya English/Wednesday, 20 November 2019
Protesters who had been detained following scuffles with security forces in central Beirut on Tuesday night have been released, reported Lebanon’s National News Agency on Wednesday. On Tuesday, protesters gathered in central Beirut to prevent the Lebanese Parliament from opening for a scheduled legislative session which had been criticized by demonstrators as out of sync with the public mood, as anti-government demonstrations showed no signs of stopping. Lebanon’s President Michel Aoun, who has refused to step down, met with the Caretaker Minister of Energy and Water Resources Nada Boustani on Wednesday. According to the NNA, they discussed the oil and gas exploration process, which Lebanese politicians have touted as a potential savior for the country’s struggling economy. The unrest has hit an already weak economy, including by limiting international assistance to the country. The White House confirmed that it is holding up security assistance valued at more than $100 million, according to a senior State Department official on Wednesday. Protests have continued across the country, including in the second largest city Tripoli, after Mohammad Safadi withdrew from replacing Saad Hariri as Prime Minister over the weekend. Al Arabiya English spoke to protesters in Tripoli who were mulling the return of Hariri as Prime Minister, amid continued political deadlock.
Khalaf Helps Release Protesters Held Tuesday in Riad al-Solh
Protesters arrested during scuffles with anti-riot police in Raid al-Solh Square on Tuesday evening have all been released, al-Joumhouria daily reported Wednesday. It said the new president of the Beirut Bar Association Melhem Khalaf -a candidate backed by the protest movement that is sweeping the country- followed up closely on their case from al- Helou barracks where they were held. The newspaper said Khalaf headed to the barracks and stayed there until after midnight with members of the syndicate Imad Martinus and Elie Bazerli and other lawyers to follow up the case.
They were released Wednesday morning. Three protesters were injured and several were arrested in scuffles with riot police Tuesday evening at Beirut’s Riad al-Solh Square. Scuffles also broke out when some protesters tried to cross the barbed wire and enter into Nejmeh Square where parliament building is located.Khalaf was elected on Sunday as head of the Bar Association, scoring a precious win for the nascent movement over the country’s established political parties.
Berri Says ‘Bloodshed Scheme’ Defeated on Tuesday
Naharnet/November 20/2019
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri on Wednesday said that the “biggest winners” on Tuesday were “Lebanon and civil peace,” after he was forced to postpone a legislative session due to lack of quorum and road-blocking protests. “Despite what happened yesterday, the important thing is that not a single drop of blood was shed although a bloodshed scheme was being plotted in dark rooms,” Berri said during the weekly meeting with MPs in Ain el-Tineh. “We do not accept this and the priority was and will always be Lebanon and civil peace,” the Speaker added. He also said that “a bet on spreading vacuum” was thwarted. Lebanon’s parliament, besieged by angry protesters Tuesday, for a second time postponed a session to discuss draft laws which critics charge would let corrupt politicians off the hook. After a morning of noisy demonstrations outside the chamber, and after several political parties had said they would boycott the session, parliament official Adnan Daher appeared before TV cameras. “The session has been postponed to a date to be determined later,” he said, citing “exceptional … security conditions.””This is a new achievement for the revolution,” cheered Mohamed Ataya, a 28-year-old demonstrator, vowing that no session would be held “as long as the people control the street.” From early morning, riot police had faced off with hundreds of noisy demonstrators and sporadic scuffles broke out outside the assembly, where activists tried to block MPs’ convoys. Warning shots were fired in the air as one convoy passed through the crowd, a broadcast on LBCI television showed. Demonstrators blamed an MP’s bodyguard for firing them. Lebanon has since October 17 been rocked by an unprecedented wave of popular street revolt that have cut across sectarian lines. What started with protests against a plan to tax online phone calls made through WhatsApp and other applications has turned into a broader popular revolt against the perceived ineptitude and corruption of the entire ruling class. Amid the crisis the prime minister, Saad Hariri, bowed to street pressure and resigned on October 29, but the parliamentary consultations needed to form a new government have yet to start.
Ammar Says Security Forces Stood Idly By as MPs were being ‘Insulted’
Naharnet/November 20/2019
MP Ali Ammar of Hizbullah’s Loyalty to Resistance bloc on Wednesday accused security forces of “standing idly by” as lawmakers were being “insulted” at road-blocking protests around parliament building on Tuesday. “We saw officers and soldiers standing idly by as the MPs of the nation were being insulted at roadblocks,” Ammar said from Ain el-Tineh. “The army commander promised that as much as he would protect protesters, he would be keen on protecting the right to movement, but unfortunately what we saw was suspicious,” Ammar added. A military source meanwhile clarified to LBCI television that “yesterday the Lebanese Army was tasked with securing the public roads leading to parliament’s entrances while the Internal Security Forces were in charge of the entrances.”Footage of Ammar riding a scooter near parliament and chanting with protesters besieging the legislature’s building has gone viral on social media in Lebanon. A video shows a smiling Ammar arriving on foot to a road-blocking protest near parliament, where a controversial legislative session was due to be held. Ammar then engages in an apparently friendly chat with protesters before leaving the area. Another video shows Ammar raising his fist in the air and chanting “down with the rule of thugs” with protesters as he arrives to another road-blocking point. And as protesters chant “Hela, Hela, Hela, Hela, Ho, parliament is closed, sweetie!”, Ammar starts clapping.
Jumblat Says Presidential Term, Taef Accord Have ‘Ended’
Naharnet/November 20/2019
Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblat on Wednesday announced that the presidential tenure of President Michel Aoun and the 1989 Taef Accord have “ended,” as he revealed that he has advised caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri not to lead the new government.
Asked whether caretaker Foreign Minister Jebran Bassil will be among the new ministers, Jumblat told MTV: “I believe that some faces have expired.”Revealing that Hizbullah has not “pressured” him to keep the PSP’s ministers in Hariri’s government, Jumblat said: “I showed solidarity with Hariri until he resigned and we all drowned.”“After resignation I advised Hariri several times not to lead the new government and I told him ‘let them rule even with a one-sided government,’” the PSP leader added. Asked about Aoun’s latest TV interview, Jumblat said: “The presidential tenure has ended, on the streets. Ghassan Ayyash wrote it – the second republic has ended. The Taef Accord has ended.”Noting that he had warned Hariri against endorsing Mohammed Safadi for the premiership, Jumblat added that he does not agree with Hizbullah that “most of what’s happening on the streets is a conspiracy.”“The people are honestly expressing their desire for change,” he said.
Report: Hizbullah, AMAL ‘Dismayed’ by Security, Military Strategy with Protesters
Naharnet/November 20/2019
The “Shiite duo” Hizbullah and AMAL Movement were reportedly dismayed by the technique used by security and military forces when protesters a day earlier blocked routes leading to the parliament, al-Joumhouria daily reported on Wednesday. Sources close to the “Shiite duo” told the daily that “security and military forces ensured protesters’ right to protest, but did not ensure the lawmakers’ right to reach the parliament,” session that was set to convene. They said the “leniency of official bodies regarding behavior of demonstrators in Downtown Beirut contradicts a decision preventing road blockages that was recently announced by a senior military official.”The source was indirectly referring to remarks of Army Chief Gen. Joseph Aoun. On Sunday, Aoun said that the closure of roads by protesters was “unacceptable.” He also said they have the right to protest. “The demonstrators blocked roads to a parliamentary session that would have discussed laws responding to some of their legitimate demands,” deplored the source. Angry protesters besieged the parliament on Tuesday forcing to stop lawmakers from attending a session they deem as “unconstitutional”. The session, postponed for a week due to pressure from the street, was due to discuss draft laws which critics charge would let corrupt politicians off the hook.
Protesters in Sidon Close Money Exchange and Transfer Shops
Associated Press/Naharnet/November 20/2019
Protesters in the southern city of Sidon forced the closure of exchange and money transfer houses as Lebanon grapples with a dollar shortage crisis triggering economic woes, the National News Agency reported on Wednesday. Tens of protesters, and school students marched in Riad al-Solh street in Sidon closing exchange and money transfer houses amid tight security measures, said NNA. Fears of a US dollar shortage have raised anxiety over a possible devaluation of the Lebanese pound and price hikes, amid nationwide protests lingering since October 17 demanding an overhaul of the entire political class. Amid the turmoil, banks stayed shut for weeks and restricted withdrawals, foreign currency transactions and access to dollars. The Lebanese pound has been pegged to the dollar at an official rate of 1,507 to the dollar since 1997. Exchange shops are now trading at 1,900 Lebanese pounds to the dollar, a devaluation of more than 25%.
Jarrah to hold press conference Thursday on Ibrahim’s lawsuit
NNA/Wednesday, 20 November 2019
Caretaker Minister of Information, Jamal Jarrah, is to hold a press conference at 4.00 p.m. Thursday afternoon to respond to the lawsuit filed by Financial Attorney General, Ali Ibrahim, against three former Telecoms ministers.
Hale: White House Holding Up Lebanon Security Aid
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 20 November, 2019
The White House is holding up security assistance to Lebanon valued at more than $100 million, leaving lawmakers and policymakers in the dark, David Hale, a senior State Department official, publicly confirmed in the impeachment inquiry against President Donald Trump. Hale, the top career diplomat at the State Department, acknowledged the freeze as he spoke under oath to lawmakers.Asked about the controversial delay in military assistance to Ukraine, Hale said that it was not an isolated case and pointed to Lebanon. “There was information that came to me starting in late June that a hold had been placed on both Ukraine assistance and Lebanon military assistance without any explanation,” said Hale, the undersecretary of state for political affairs, according to a transcript released by lawmakers late Monday. “It’s still not been released,” he said in the November 6 deposition when asked about the status of aid to Lebanon. Asked why the White House was not disbursing money approved by Congress, Hale said there was apparently “a dispute over the efficacy of the assistance,” but his full answer was redacted. The Trump administration, which has not explained its decision, has been pressing for the isolation of Lebanon’s Hezbollah that allied with Iran. The aid freeze came before the Oct. 17 outbreak of massive anti-government protests in Lebanon against economic hardship and corruption, which triggered the resignation of Prime Minister Saad Hariri. Two senior Democrats, in a recent letter to the White House, said that the “indefinite and unexplained hold” affected $105 million in aid to Lebanon including military vehicles, weapons and ammunition. Eliot Engel, chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, and Ted Deutch, head of its Middle East subcommittee, wrote that Lebanon “continues to face imminent threats to its security forces from a resurgent ISIS, al-Qaeda and its affiliates as well as an increasingly strong Hezbollah.””A more capable (Lebanese Army) is clearly in the interests of the United States and Lebanon,” they wrote. Hale said the top State Department and Pentagon officials handling the Middle East wondered if aid freezes by the White House’s Office of Management and Budget had become “a new normal.” In the case of Ukraine, Trump is facing accusations over charges that he withheld assistance needed to fight Russian-backed separatists as he pressed Ukraine to dig up dirt on domestic rival Joe Biden. Trump denies wrongdoing.
Young Lebanese Protesters Demand Better Future — at Home
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 20 November, 2019
At an anti-corruption rally in Lebanon’s capital, 16-year-old Mariam Sidani said she had skipped school to protest against politicians who care nothing for her life prospects. “No one’s taking care of my future,” she said, her face flushed after a day in the sun. “I want to live in my own country, not be forced abroad,” she said, her long hazel hair flowing over her backpack straps, AFP reported. At the heart of Lebanon’s one-month-old protests, a young generation of activists is coming of age and demanding a country in which they can see themselves thriving and growing old. With humorous songs, satirical art and creative slogans, they are demanding the overhaul of an entire political class they see as inefficient, corrupt and out of touch. Many of the protesters were born in 2000 or later, learning online what life is like overseas, and they say what is on offer in Lebanon is simply not good enough. “All over the world students are fighting for climate justice,” said Sidani.”But we don’t even have a sea,” she said of a polluted coastline that is largely privatised and to which access is prohibitively expensive.
‘Worse than season 8’
Near the seat of cabinet, students dance to the booming beat of a rapper from the northern Akkar region demanding “the fall of the regime”. A young female university student holds up a poster depicting top politicians as sharks. “Let’s go hunt,” it reads. Another student deplores the country’s endless political crises and crumbling economy with a pop culture reference. “It’s so bad you made me forget how bad season 8 was,” her poster says, referring to TV series Games of Thrones. Like their older counterparts, Lebanon’s Generation Z demand 24-hour electricity, clean water, healthcare, better garbage management, more public spaces and an end to corruption. But in a country where more than 30 percent of youth are unemployed, they also just want jobs. Tina, a 17-year-old high school student, said she wanted a future not defined by the ability to pay bribes or call in a favour from someone influential.
“We want to stay here with our families and find jobs without personal connections,” she said, clutching a cardboard poster that denounced parents who effectively buy their children good marks in school. Not far off, dancing among the crowd, 19-year-old Sandra Rizk had flown back to Lebanon from her first year at university in Italy to take part in the protests. “We have really intelligent people who are leaving this country to go and fix other ones. It shouldn’t be like this,” she said. “Those people have to come back and repair Lebanon,” said the fashion design student, short curly brown hair framing her face.
‘Social justice’
Analyst Nadim Houry said the new generation of demonstrators had surprised people. “Everyone expected them to be too lethargic from all these hours on YouTube and social media,” said the executive director of the Arab Reform Initiative. “But similar to their cohort in places as far as Hong Kong, they have shown themselves to be more political and articulate than their predecessors,” he told AFP. Born a decade after the country’s 1975-1990 civil conflict, they never knew some of the country’s politicians as warlords, and are not paralyzed by the same fears as their parents or even elder siblings, Houry said.
“They care less about sectarianism and more about social justice,” he said. In a multi-confessional country where Lebanese have long voted along sectarian lines, young protesters say they have freed themselves from political affiliations and are putting their country first. “They want to be treated as citizens and not as members of sects,” Houry said. Lebanon has been shaken by protests before, including a huge movement that ended Syrian occupation in 2005, and a brief outcry denouncing those responsible for heaps of garbage mounting in and around that capital in 2015. But 26-year-old interior architecture student George said today’s cross-sectarian uprising was different. “This is the real revolution that represents all of us,” he said, carrying a Lebanese flag. His generation would carry the movement forward, he said, even if those who were employed felt they needed to return to their jobs.
“If older people need to go back to work, we’ve swapped our university and school timetables for the revolution,” he said.
Exclusive: Lebanese Army Rejects Bloodshed in Dealing with Protesters
Beirut – Thaer Abbas/Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 20 November, 2019
The Lebanese army leadership rejects bloody clashes with anti-government demonstrators who took to the streets on October 17 to protest rising poverty and ask for better state services, a Lebanese official with knowledge of military affairs said. The army considers bloodshed a red line, the official told Asharq Al-Awsat. Constitutionally, the military institution falls under the authority of the Lebanese government. But since neither the cabinet nor the Higher Defense Council have met since the eruption of protests, the army hasn’t received any political instructions on ways to deal with demonstrators.
It was up to its leadership to decide what action to take to open roads blocked by the protesters while taking into consideration that they are Lebanese citizens and not terrorists or foreign enemies, said the official. The army sought to open roads through dialogue with the protesters and certain decisive measures while avoiding clashes. The military leadership is confident about its decision and will not hesitate to apply similar measures if needed, the official added. There were limited clashes with protesters because the army is not trained to deal with protests, he told Asharq Al-Awsat. He said pressure keeps piling after the leadership decided to put 90 percent of its reservists in service. “But we will continue to carry out our duty.”The official said political parties had no role in the first three days of protests when angry Lebanese took to the streets over proposed new taxes. The masses included the poor as well as the wealthy who wanted to express frustration at the deteriorating economic and financial crisis. He added that the majority of protesters were youth from colleges and universities, who are seen as the biggest constituents in the 2022 parliamentary elections. Prime Minister Saad Hariri resigned his government on Oct. 29 in response to the protests, which snowballed into calls for the entire political elite to step aside.
Lebanon: President’s Conditions Complicate Cabinet Formation Process
Beirut – Caroline Akoum/Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 20 November, 2019
Lebanese President Michel Aoun has renewed his call for the formation of a government of politicians and technocrats, setting new standards for the process, cabinet ministers close to the president. Aoun said on Tuesday the government must bring together politicians, specialists and activists, while sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that the prime minister-designate must approve the new standards to head the next cabinet. Well-informed sources said that caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri did not go back on his position regarding the need to form a technocrat government. “Hariri said what he has to say,” the sources told Asharq Al-Awsat, noting that he would only accept to lead a cabinet of technocrats. The sources added that Hariri had put forward the name of Lebanon’s Ambassador to the UN Nawaf Salam for the premiership, but his proposal was rejected. “We can’t ignore street protests that brought down the previous government… We should have a pragmatic assessment of the situation on the ground … and work to lay a solid foundation for any future government,” the sources underlined. Aoun has yet to call for consultations with parliamentary blocs’ leaders to name a new premier, three weeks after Hariri resigned amid nationwide protests. However, Lebanese ministerial sources said that contacts with Aoun’s rivals, such as the Lebanese Forces, the Progressive Socialist Party and the Kataeb, had reached a standstill. The sources were surprised by Aoun’s recent comments about a government of politicians and technocrats, stressing that Hariri was not in a position to head such a cabinet. Aoun met on Tuesday with the UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon, Jan Kubis, at the Baabda Palace. A statement by the presidential office said he was still holding contacts to form a new government that would enjoy “the needed political support and include representatives of the political components and protesters alongside technocrats.”The president added that he would set a date for the binding parliamentary consultations when the talks with the concerned political parties yield results by removing obstacles hindering the cabinet formation process.
Young Lebanese Protesters Demand Better Future — at Home
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/November 20/2019
At an anti-corruption rally in Lebanon’s capital, 16-year-old Mariam Sidani said she had skipped school to protest against politicians who care nothing for her life prospects. “No one’s taking care of my future,” she said, her face flushed after a day in the sun. “I want to live in my own country, not be forced abroad,” she said, her long hazel hair flowing over her backpack straps. At the heart of Lebanon’s one-month-old protests, a young generation of activists is coming of age and demanding a country in which they can see themselves thriving and growing old. With humourous songs, satirical art and creative slogans, they are demanding the overhaul of an entire political class they see as inefficient, corrupt and out of touch. Many of the protesters were born in 2000 or later, learning online what life is like overseas, and they say what is on offer in Lebanon is simply not good enough. “All over the world students are fighting for climate justice,” said Sidani. “But we don’t even have a sea,” she said of a polluted coastline that is largely privatised and to which access is prohibitively expensive.
‘Worse than season 8’
Near the seat of cabinet, students dance to the booming beat of a rapper from the northern Akkar region demanding “the fall of the regime”. A young female university student holds up a poster depicting top politicians as sharks. “Let’s go hunt,” it reads. Another student deplores the country’s endless political crises and crumbling economy with a pop culture reference. “It’s so bad you made me forget how bad season 8 was,” her poster says, referring to TV series Games of Thrones. Like their older counterparts, Lebanon’s Generation Z demand 24-hour electricity, clean water, healthcare, better garbage management, more public spaces and an end to corruption. But in a country where more than 30 percent of youth are unemployed, they also just want jobs. Tina, a 17-year-old high school student, said she wanted a future not defined by the ability to pay bribes or call in a favour from someone influential. “We want to stay here with our families and find jobs without personal connections,” she said, clutching a cardboard poster that denounced parents who effectively buy their children good marks in school. Not far off, dancing among the crowd, 19-year-old Sandra Rizk had flown back to Lebanon from her first year at university in Italy to take part in the protests. “We have really intelligent people who are leaving this country to go and fix other ones. It shouldn’t be like this,” she said. “Those people have to come back and repair Lebanon,” said the fashion design student, short curly brown hair framing her face.
‘Social justice’
Analyst Nadim Houry said the new generation of demonstrators had surprised people. “Everyone expected them to be too lethargic from all these hours on YouTube and social media,” said the executive director of the Arab Reform Initiative. “But similar to their cohort in places as far as Hong Kong, they have shown themselves to be more political and articulate than their predecessors,” he told AFP. Born a decade after the country’s 1975-1990 civil conflict, they never knew some of the country’s politicians as warlords, and are not paralysed by the same fears as their parents or even elder siblings, Houry said. “They care less about sectarianism and more about social justice,” he said. In a multi-confessional country where Lebanese have long voted along sectarian lines, young protesters say they have freed themselves from political affiliations and are putting their country first.
“They want to be treated as citizens and not as members of sects,” Houry said. Lebanon has been shaken by protests before, including a huge movement that ended Syrian occupation in 2005, and a brief outcry denouncing those responsible for heaps of garbage mounting in and around that capital in 2015. But 26-year-old interior architecture student George said today’s cross-sectarian uprising was different. “This is the real revolution that represents all of us,” he said, carrying a Lebanese flag. His generation would carry the movement forward, he said, even if those who were employed felt they needed to return to their jobs. “If older people need to go back to work, we’ve swapped our university and school timetables for the revolution,” he said.
240 Congresspeople to UN: Hezbollah threatens Israeli security
A majority of the House of Representatives lawmakers – over 240 from both parties sent a letter to the UN urging the enforcement of the UN resolution 1701.
Jerusalem Post/November 20/2019
رسالة من 240 نائب أميركي ديموقراطي وجمهوري إلى الأمين العام للأمم المتحدة تطالبه العمل على تنفيذ القرار الدولي الخاص بلبنان رقم 1701
“As Republicans and Democrats, we are united in our concern about the continuing, serious violations of United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701.”
WASHINGTON – A majority of the House of Representatives lawmakers – over 240 from both parties – sent a letter to the United Nations Secretary-General on Monday urging him to enforce Security Council resolution 1701. Four Congresspeople from both parties spearheaded the letter: Reps. Elaine Luria, Lee Zeldin, Haley Stevens and Michael Waltz. The American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) thanked the four publicly on Twitter for “pressing [António Guterres] to address the threat to Israel from the terrorist organization Hezbollah in Lebanon.”
The letter calls on Guterres to lead an international effort to limit Hezbollah’s capabilities “and to avoid the devastating but avoidable outcome of which you have previously warned.”“We fear significant civilian costs in Lebanon if Israel must act to defend its citizens because Hezbollah has positioned its massive arsenal in civilian areas – turning much of Lebanon’s population into human shields,” the letter continues. “Hezbollah will bear the responsibility for that, as will the Government of Lebanon and the international community.”
The group mentioned the terror organization’s ongoing efforts to attack Israel, including by digging underground tunnels that the IDF was able to find and destroy last year.
“As Republicans and Democrats, we are united in our concern about the continuing, serious violations of United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701 and the resulting threat our ally Israel faces on its northern border,” the letter reads. “After 13 years, Lebanon’s attempts to implement this resolution have been unsuccessful. Instead, under the nose of UNIFIL and the international community, Hezbollah has built a murderous capability aimed at Israel’s civilian population. “The United Nations Security Council spoke out clearly and unanimously by passing UNSCR 1701,” it continues. “In doing so, the international community committed itself to Lebanese sovereignty and Israeli security. Hezbollah’s military build-up threatens both. We believe Beirut must address the Hezbollah challenge on an urgent basis. Continued failure to do so weakens Lebanon’s relationship with the international community and increases the threats to the Lebanese People and Israel’s security.”The group urged Guterres to assist Lebanon’s prime minister to “finally reclaim Lebanese sovereignty and implement all the terms of UNSCR 1701, including allowing UNIFIL to fulfill its mandate in southern Lebanon. “At the same time, we request that you insist that UNIFIL fully implement its mandate despite pressure from Hezbollah. UNIFIL should accurately report on Hezbollah violations of UNSCR 1701 and work with the Government of Lebanon to remove Hezbollah’s weapons from the South,” the letter continues. The Jerusalem Post reported in July that Israel and the United States are jointly working to have the United Nations Security Council upgrade the mandate of the international peacekeeping force based in southern Lebanon, providing it with greater authority to weaken Hezbollah.
Israel Ambassador to the UN Danny Danon told the Post that Israel is working with the US to upgrade UNIFIL’s mandate, explicitly to give it the ability to visit and inspect any area in southern Lebanon. Under the existing mandate, UNIFIL cannot enter villages and the urban regions unless it first coordinates such visits with the Lebanese Armed Forces. The lawmakers also addressed the growing threat from Hezbollah’s missile arsenal. “No country can tolerate a terrorist organization on its border, acquiring the capability to endanger its population. Israel has the right to defend itself and will have the full bipartisan support of the United States if it must act to protect its citizens,” it concludes.
https://www.jpost.com/American-Politics/240-Congressmen-Hezbollah-threatens-Israeli-security-608390
Titles For The Latest Lebanese LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on November 20-21/2019
A majority of the House of Representatives lawmakers – over 240 from both parties sent a letter to the UN urging the enforcement of the UN resolution 1701./Jerusalem Post/November 20/2019
Lebanon confusion: Uneasy calm descends on Beirut amid ‘fear of what is to come’/Najia Houssari/November 21/2019
Arts of the Lebanese Revolution build an open historic museum/Salma Yassine/Annahar/November 20/2019
What’s next for Lebanon? Examining the implications of current protests/Jeffrey Feltman/November 20/ 2019
The Latest Lebanese LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on November 20-21/2019
240 Congresspeople to UN: Hezbollah threatens Israeli security
A majority of the House of Representatives lawmakers – over 240 from both parties sent a letter to the UN urging the enforcement of the UN resolution 1701.
Jerusalem Post/November 20/2019
رسالة من 240 نائب أميركي ديموقراطي وجمهوري إلى الأمين العام للأمم المتحدة تطالبه العمل على تنفيذ القرار الدولي الخاص بلبنان رقم 1701
“As Republicans and Democrats, we are united in our concern about the continuing, serious violations of United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701.”
WASHINGTON – A majority of the House of Representatives lawmakers – over 240 from both parties – sent a letter to the United Nations Secretary-General on Monday urging him to enforce Security Council resolution 1701. Four Congresspeople from both parties spearheaded the letter: Reps. Elaine Luria, Lee Zeldin, Haley Stevens and Michael Waltz. The American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) thanked the four publicly on Twitter for “pressing [António Guterres] to address the threat to Israel from the terrorist organization Hezbollah in Lebanon.”
The letter calls on Guterres to lead an international effort to limit Hezbollah’s capabilities “and to avoid the devastating but avoidable outcome of which you have previously warned.”“We fear significant civilian costs in Lebanon if Israel must act to defend its citizens because Hezbollah has positioned its massive arsenal in civilian areas – turning much of Lebanon’s population into human shields,” the letter continues. “Hezbollah will bear the responsibility for that, as will the Government of Lebanon and the international community.”
The group mentioned the terror organization’s ongoing efforts to attack Israel, including by digging underground tunnels that the IDF was able to find and destroy last year.
“As Republicans and Democrats, we are united in our concern about the continuing, serious violations of United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701 and the resulting threat our ally Israel faces on its northern border,” the letter reads. “After 13 years, Lebanon’s attempts to implement this resolution have been unsuccessful. Instead, under the nose of UNIFIL and the international community, Hezbollah has built a murderous capability aimed at Israel’s civilian population. “The United Nations Security Council spoke out clearly and unanimously by passing UNSCR 1701,” it continues. “In doing so, the international community committed itself to Lebanese sovereignty and Israeli security. Hezbollah’s military build-up threatens both. We believe Beirut must address the Hezbollah challenge on an urgent basis. Continued failure to do so weakens Lebanon’s relationship with the international community and increases the threats to the Lebanese People and Israel’s security.”The group urged Guterres to assist Lebanon’s prime minister to “finally reclaim Lebanese sovereignty and implement all the terms of UNSCR 1701, including allowing UNIFIL to fulfill its mandate in southern Lebanon. “At the same time, we request that you insist that UNIFIL fully implement its mandate despite pressure from Hezbollah. UNIFIL should accurately report on Hezbollah violations of UNSCR 1701 and work with the Government of Lebanon to remove Hezbollah’s weapons from the South,” the letter continues. The Jerusalem Post reported in July that Israel and the United States are jointly working to have the United Nations Security Council upgrade the mandate of the international peacekeeping force based in southern Lebanon, providing it with greater authority to weaken Hezbollah.
Israel Ambassador to the UN Danny Danon told the Post that Israel is working with the US to upgrade UNIFIL’s mandate, explicitly to give it the ability to visit and inspect any area in southern Lebanon. Under the existing mandate, UNIFIL cannot enter villages and the urban regions unless it first coordinates such visits with the Lebanese Armed Forces. The lawmakers also addressed the growing threat from Hezbollah’s missile arsenal. “No country can tolerate a terrorist organization on its border, acquiring the capability to endanger its population. Israel has the right to defend itself and will have the full bipartisan support of the United States if it must act to protect its citizens,” it concludes.
https://www.jpost.com/American-Politics/240-Congressmen-Hezbollah-threatens-Israeli-security-608390
Lebanon confusion: Uneasy calm descends on Beirut amid ‘fear of what is to come’
Najia Houssari/November 21/2019
BEIRUT: More than a month after bitter demonstrations erupted across the country, Lebanese protesters, just like warriors in battle, appear desperate for a rest. On Wednesday, 35 days after activists took to the streets to demand an end to government corruption and mismanagement, life in Beirut returned to normal. Students went back to their schools and universities, banks opened their doors to unprecedented numbers of customers, roadworks restarted on some streets and TV channels resumed regular schedules. However, behind the appearance of calm, many residents remain nervous and fearful. Taxi driver Abu Omar said: “The roads are no longer blocked by protesters, but people are still in shock. They fear what is to come. There have been no solutions, which means it is not over.”
Madeleine, shopping on Hamra Street with a friend, said: “We have had enough of sitting in front of the TV all day, watching the news. People in the street were right to protest and their demands must be met. Employees were told two days ago that their salaries will be cut in half.”
Another said: “We might lose our jobs at any moment. They told us that last month the company suffered enormous losses and might not be able to continue. I do not think that the protests are the cause, but the economic stagnation that began before the protests has got worse.”
Away from the capital, protesters are still setting up roadblocks, but the Lebanese army’s decision to open major roads between towns has been unopposed.
In the north of Lebanon, roads were blocked in Akkar, while life in Tripoli returned to normal and the main protest squares were closed. In Saida, in the south of the country, public facilities, schools and universities reopened. But protesters called for money exchange and transfer shops to be closed amid anger at the outlets’ high pricing of the US dollar while banks still have strict limits on providing customers with US currency. According to a final review by Lebanon’s Central Bank, more than $3.2 billion was withdrawn from banks at the start of the financial crisis. Alia Abbas, general director of economy and trade at the Lebanese Economy Ministry, said that prices of some products have risen by up to 11 percent. President Michel Aoun, caretaker prime minister Saad Hariri and Speaker Nabih Berri have failed to reach a formula to form a new government since Oct. 29. One activist, who declined to be named, said that he fears Aoun will name someone other than Hariri to form a government of both experts and politicians since the former PM is insisting on a technocrat government.
“Naming Hariri to form a techno-political government is a good thing, as familiar faces will be replaced with experts, but this will not be well received by the protest movement,” he said.
Arts of the Lebanese Revolution build an open historic museum
Salma Yassine/Annahar/November 20/2019
Brushstrokes are taking refuge in what is presented on the streets, and breathing life into it through immortalizing it on canvasses, making the revolution a museum of painted history.
BEIRUT: The Lebanese revolution is rendered a safe harbor for a crescendo of raw arts that revive the defiance within every hue.
A plethora of arts emanates from the Lebanese Revolution, with exuberance earnestly woven within the gravelly voices of the people, who are an indispensable essence to their unity. “The revolutionary arts we are witnessing are endearing, given their creative, sarcastic, and emotional nature. They are a remedy to the Lebanese’s past traumas, the ones lingering within the charcoaled days of the civil war,” Nada Mouzannar, a singer and a member of the Lebanese diaspora, noted.
The spectrum of arts encompasses various forms of paintings, graphic designs, music and written words, some of which are being transcribed on walls, and captured in snapshots. Brushstrokes are taking refuge in what is presented on the streets, and breathing life into it through immortalizing it on canvasses, making the revolution a museum of painted history. “The faces of the revolution inspire me, for they are art in their own sense. One could only drown in a sea of features; those of children on their fathers’ shoulders, young women, men selling flowers, the flags, the scarves, and the enormity of the architecture. Painting the revolution will eternalize it,” Reem Rashash Shaaban, a mixed media artist, told Annahar. Designs across Lebanese streets feature chants and slogans like “سلميّة، سلميّة – Peaceful, Peaceful,” “تحيّة للطّلّاب – Salutation to the Students,” and “الثّورة أنثى – The Revolution is Female” and reflect the crux of the revolution’s voice. Musical creations are also blooming to iconize the revolution through streaming old songs known to be classics for every revolt, featuring the legendary “شيّد قصورك عالمزارع – Erect your Fortresses on our Farmland.” Protesters are also producing new chants and modern revolutionary songs that speak of the current state of the country.
“I felt that injustice entered people’s homes without permission, and we all had our own stories and sufferings to narrate. I went out to the streets and met artists with whom I decided to compose an anthem for the revolution,” Mahdi Mansour, a poet, noted for Annahar.
A notable outcome of these melodic compositions was the birth of the “Revolution’s Anthem.”“The prominence of having an anthem lies in directing the voices of the people towards a plethora of unified demands that are fuming with love, social justice, political reform, and the abandonment of sectarianism,” he added. Omar Sfeir, a photographer, captured a still moment to represent the Lebanon that the revolution has birthed, by adding a twist to Magritte’s surrealist painting, titled “The Lovers.”
“My version portrays two people revolting under the name of love, regardless of their gender, religion, and sexual orientation. The kiss concealed with Lebanese flags is a token of defiance, wherein the cedar is complete by the two united lovers, just like my homeland’s people,” he told Annahar.
What’s next for Lebanon? Examining the implications of current protests
النص الكامل لشهادة السفير الأميركي السابق في لبنان جيفري فلتمان أما لجنة الشرق الأوسط وشمال أفريقيا والإرهاب الددولي حول الإحتجاجات الشعبية اللبنانية وما ما هو بعدها
Jeffrey Feltman/November 20/ 2019
Editor’s Note: Jeffrey Feltman testifies before the House Subcommittee on the Middle East, North Africa, and International Terrorism on “What’s Next for Lebanon? Examining the Implications of Current Protests.”
Below is the full testimony .
I thank the Subcommittee for inviting me to share my analysis on the situation in Lebanon, especially as it relates to U.S. interests.
I must begin by noting that I represent only myself before you today; the Brookings Institution does not take any institutional positions on policy positions. I would also like to emphasize at the outset that Lebanon’s current protests are not about the United States, and we should avoid anything that would change the focus to the United States. But the results of the protests could affect U.S. interests positively or negatively. That is why I very much welcome Congressional attention to Lebanon at what could be a pivotal moment in the country’s history.
LEBANON MATTERS TO THE UNITED STATES
There are two common perceptions of Lebanon in the United States. One view is romantic, seeing a multi-confessional, relatively open democracy and vibrant society, offering incredible culture, cuisine, history and hospitality. According to the alternative view, Lebanon, with a bloody civil war and where U.S. Marines and diplomats have been butchered, is a dangerous outpost of Iran threatening U.S. interests in the region and beyond.
With some truth in each description, I would like to open by reviewing how tiny Lebanon affects U.S. interests in big ways. Most obvious is Iran’s projection of its malign regional role via its most successful export, the terrorist organization Hezbollah with its advanced capabilities to threaten Israel and other U.S. allies. In addition, the risk of Sunni extremist groups and Al-Qaida or ISIS establishing strongholds in Lebanon has largely receded, thanks to impressive, sustained efforts by the Lebanese Armed Forces. But, as happened in Iraq, these gains can quickly erode, with international implications, without continued vigilance.
The history of Hezbollah and of Sunni terrorist groups demonstrate vividly why Lebanon’s overall stability is in our interest: Iran exploited Lebanon’s civil war, the post-2003 internal conflict in Iraq, and the more recent civil wars in Syria and Yemen to establish deep roots that prove difficult to eradicate. Civil wars, in other words, become vehicles for the expansion of Iran’s influence. Chaos is also a fertile breeding ground for Al-Qaida-type terrorists, as in Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Somalia.
Russia also eyes Lebanon as a venue to continue its aggressive expansion of its regional and Mediterranean role. Russia is entrenched in Syria, and Russian mercenaries enabling General Haftar’s assault on Tripoli in Libya gives Moscow a toehold on the southern Mediterranean. Lebanon’s three ports and offshore hydrocarbon reserves, if exploited by Russia, would add to the sense that Russia is winning in the eastern and southern Mediterranean, at our expense. With over 400 Chinese nationals in UNIFIL in southern Lebanon, China, too, may see potential in Lebanon’s ports and location – and the Lebanese may find China’s 5G technology hard to resist, given the sorry state of Lebanon’s current telecommunications networks.
Hezbollah: Revolutionary Iran’s most successful export
Closer to Lebanon, Bashar al-Assad, who for a supposedly strong-man dictator is embarrassingly dependent on Russia, Hezbollah and Iran to reassert his control over most of Syria, would undoubtedly love to posture again as a regional power broker by reversing his 2005 humiliation, when the combination of Lebanese protests and international pressure led by President George W. Bush forced him to end abruptly Syria’s long-time oppressive military occupation of Lebanon. Russia, never happy with President Bush’s focus on Lebanon’s freedom, may be happy to facilitate the restoration of Syrian hegemony over its small neighbor, especially as convenient cover for Russia’s own objectives in Lebanon.
In short, Lebanon is a venue for global strategic competition. Others will happily fill the vacuum if we cede ground.
However dysfunctional Lebanon’s democracy is, we also have interests in seeing an Arab, Mediterranean country with relatively strong civil liberties, democratic traditions, and multi-confessional co-existence succeed. With their strong international connections, most Lebanese aspire to be linked politically, culturally, economically, and financially, to the traditional West – Europe and North America – than with Iran, Russia, or China. There is a natural affinity between most Lebanese and the West that can work to our advantage. But as citizens of a small, vulnerable country in a dangerous region, the Lebanese will also, not irrationally, look for reliable external partners. As frustrating, “needy,” and complicated as Lebanon can be, we need to play the long game and not allow Iran, Syria, China, or Russia to exploit our absence.
LEBANON’S CURRENT PROTESTS COINCIDE WITH U.S. INTERESTS
Over the years, many of us have marveled at the neat theatrical trick Lebanon has perfected: somehow staying politically and economically afloat, amidst conditions and lamentations that suggest imminent collapse. Predictions of Lebanon’s doom have often proved, if not wrong, then at least premature. This time, it appears that the curtain may come down on this gravity-defying act. Not only is the management of Lebanon’s internal and external debt increasingly complicated in a no-growth economy, but the public is by and large weary of, or even enraged by, the sectarian script and excuses that establishment political leaders use to advance their narrow political or financial interests at the expense of the country at large. The confessional patronage spoils that grease the Lebanese economy are now increasingly understood as a system to keep people confined to sectarian prisons. Meanwhile, income equality is on the rise, and job creation in decline. As a result, the entire Lebanese political system is now under hostile public scrutiny, and even Hezbollah has become a target of widespread criticism, a topic I will discuss in more detail below.
As the media reporting indicates, the cross-sectarian nature of the demonstrations that erupted in October (when the government tried to impose a tax on WhatsApp messages in a straw-that-broke-the-camel’s back moment) is refreshing and inspiring in the Lebanese context. Sunnis, Christians, Shia and Druse are all in the streets, describing themselves as Lebanese first rather than falling back on their confessional identity. The significance of these protests outweighs that of the movement that began on March 14, 2005, after the murder of Rafiq Hariri, because, this time, the Shia have joined. Moreover, the 2005 protests were aimed at Syria’s occupation of Lebanon, which a significant part of the population – again, largely Shia – found less intolerable than most of the country. Today, the protestors focus on domestic issues – jobs, garbage collection, utility services and so forth – which can unify rather than divide the Lebanese. There is, in other words, widespread “bottom up” pressure for change in Lebanon.
While, to reiterate, the protests are not about the United States, the demonstrations and the reactions to them by Lebanese leaders and institutions fortunately coincide with U.S. interests. Hezbollah has long strutted as “invincible,” “clean” and “anti-establishment” compared to other Lebanese parties. Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah’s speeches – four and counting – hoping to discredit the demonstrations have undermined Hezbollah’s carefully cultivated narrative more effectively than years of U.S. efforts to do so.
Nasrallah, peddling absurd theories of foreign interference, called for an end to demonstrations; they continue. He told the Shia protestors to go home; some did, but most did not. He said the government should not resign; Prime Minister Hariri did just that. So much for invincibility. Nasrallah’s insistence that President Michel Aoun remain in office and his dismissal of the proposal for early parliamentary elections smear Hezbollah indelibly with the political establishment and the stench of the accompanying corruption that the protesters want eradicated. Hezbollah can no longer claim credibly to be “clean,” and its participation in the now-resigned, despised government damaged its claims to deliver services more effectively than others. In terms of the public perception of its political role, Hezbollah is now relegated to the same rubbish heap as the other discredited Lebanese parties.
In addition, Lebanon’s citizenry is unlikely to forget that Hezbollah and its junior partner Amal sent thugs on motorcycles to beat up the demonstrators. This brutality resurrected memories Hezbollah would prefer remain buried: In May 2008, Hezbollah and Amal seized swaths of Beirut and surrounding areas to block government efforts to dismantle Hezbollah’s parallel secure telecommunications link. Scores were killed before the army took control. While Hezbollah demonstrated no qualms about killing and even starving mass numbers of civilians in Syria, any attempt to repeat the May 2008 offensive at home in Lebanon would evaporate Hezbollah’s already diminished “resistance” pretext entirely. For years, the United States has tried to prompt the Lebanese to face the fact that Hezbollah and its rockets create the danger of war with Israel rather than provide protection from Israel. Hezbollah’s rhetorical and physical reaction to the current demonstrations may wake up more Lebanese – including the Shia, essential to undermining Hezbollah’s popularity — to that grim reality.
The current demonstrations also constructively undermine the partnership between Hezbollah and the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), a Christian party, of President Aoun and his son-in-law, Foreign Minister Gebran Bassile. In midwifing an alliance between Hezbollah and FPM in 2006, Bassile is the architect most responsible for Hezbollah’s ability to pretend to represent a national, cross-confessional movement and transcend its narrow Iranian and sectarian agenda. The FPM alliance slapped a veneer of Christian cover onto Hezbollah and thus became the primary vehicle for expanded Hezbollah influence inside government institutions: no longer was Hezbollah restricted by the “Shia quota” in Lebanese sectarian ratios, since Hezbollah could rely on the FPM’s Christian share as well. Bassile has long exploited the sincere concern the United States and other countries have about the status of Christians in the Middle East precisely to divert scrutiny of his personal enabling of Hezbollah and his corruption. Bassile has now become the personification of everything that provokes and enrages the protestors, while his presidential father-in-law’s speeches (including one suggesting that people unhappy with Lebanon’s status quo were free to emigrate) reflect someone seriously out of touch with the national mood. So far, Hezbollah is sticking with its alliance with the FPM. But the value of this asset has dropped considerably and adds to growing public disenchantment with the Hezbollah brand overall.
By contrast, the reputation of the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), which has managed largely to stay out of politics, has, for the most part, headed upwards. There have been some problems and discrepancies in the LAF’s reaction to the protests — the LAF protected demonstrators in Beirut against Hezbollah and Amal thugs, while units in Nabatieh, in the south, looked the other way; LAF fire killed one demonstrator last week. But overall, the LAF has responded with professionalism and restraint to what from both security and political angles must be a most trying situation: what would we Americans think if persistent protests prevented us from reaching our airports, hospitals, schools or jobs? Moreover, the LAF has been forced to operate and take risks with no coherent political guidance – or cover – from Lebanon’s civilian leadership and with veiled threats from Hezbollah to clear the protests. In recent days, to the dismay of the demonstrators, the LAF has moved more forcefully to open streets and roads, to allow schools, businesses and public buildings to re-open.
While its record has not been perfect, in general the LAF’s performance has been admirable in these circumstances. The contrast to the Hezbollah thugs on motorcycles could not be clearer, and the LAF’s behavior compares favorably to the Iraqi, Egyptian or Syrian security forces’ reaction to protestors. The LAF can be an example of how public respect for an independent, capable and credible national institution can start to chip away deference to a sectarian one. This, too, is a phenomenon not about us but certainly in our interest – and one to be nurtured.
Some in Washington may ask if the LAF should now prepare to confront Hezbollah kinetically and disarm Hezbollah by force. That would be a recipe for civil war, and, as noted above, Iran and its proxies as well as Al-Qaida tend to thrive in civil war situations. We need to think more long term. In general, LAF officers, protective of their independence, know how much the army’s capabilities and professionalism have improved thanks to sustained U.S. training and equipment, and the Lebanese public is starting to recognize that, too.
A 2007 counter-terrorism operation compared to the LAF’s more recent CT efforts demonstrate this improvement. In 2007, the LAF labored from May until September to liquidate Fatah al-Islam, a Sunni terrorist organization inspired by Al-Qaida. Through the course of the battle, 158 LAF soldiers and officers were killed (along with 222 Fatah al-Islam terrorists), over 50 civilians died, and the entire Nahr al-Barad Palestinian refugee camp, previously home to over 30,000 people, was destroyed. Now, the LAF conducts rapid and effective counter-terrorism operations including on the Lebanese-Syrian border with minimal civilian or army casualties. A 2017 operation to clean eastern Lebanon of over 700 ISIS fighters took a mere ten combat days, with seven LAF killed. The LAF arrested over 3,000 Sunni extremists in 2017 and several hundred more last year. Proud of their institution and mindful of increased public support, LAF officers already whisper resentment of Hezbollah’s arrogant dismissal of the LAF. It is only a matter of time before this resentment comes out into the open.
However unappealing the occasional tactical accommodation, especially in the Hezbollah-dominated south, we should recognize that the LAF-Hezbollah relationship is not an eternal romance. The United States deserves credit for contributing to the LAF’s professionalism and improved capabilities, and thus its enhanced local respect and independence. I regret that the current review suspending – I hope only briefly — U.S. Foreign Military Financing (FMF) to the LAF has interrupted a predominantly good news story about LAF-U.S. cooperation, while giving Hezbollah, Syria, and Iran a convenient talking point about U.S. unreliability.
DYSFUNCTIONAL LEBANESE ECONOMY MAY FORCE A CHANGE IN DIRECTION
While the demonstrations have focused on immediate issues of jobs, garbage, and services, they take place against the backdrop of a looming financial crisis. As one of the highest debt-to-GDP ratios in the world – exceeding 150 percent – Lebanon has long teetered on the brink of financial disaster. The ability of the banking system to pursue clever financial engineering to prevent a plunge off the cliff seems to have run its course. With a tightening of visa restrictions for Europe and the United States, with a decline in employment possibilities in the Gulf states, the traditional outlet for Lebanon’s youth – jobs (and possibly emigration) abroad – has lost its power to reliably churn large amounts of foreign currency remittances back into the Lebanese economy.
But the real problem is persistent economic stagnation. Debt can be managed in an environment of economic growth. Lebanon’s GDP, even before the current demonstrations, was projected to expand by only 0.02 percent this year in real terms. Privatization of state assets – telecom, electricity – could produce revenues, if the privatization schemes could be trusted, as well as improve services over the longer term. And certainly credible, transparent governance, where the public good rather than personal gain motivates the political leadership, can contribute to economic improvements. A significant difference would derive from new investment and a return of Arab Gulf tourists, companies, and financial deposits.
Yet success in attracting Western and GCC investors will remain elusive without significant changes. Western and GCC investors will look elsewhere for opportunities if the Lebanese remain complacent about being part of what is seen as the Iranian/Syrian axis and if they tolerate an only intermittent commitment to transparency and rule of law. More pointedly, investors and tourists will not return in sufficiently large and predictable numbers as long as Hezbollah can on a whim pull Lebanon into war, with no reference to public opinion or government oversight. The Lebanese themselves will need to choose the path leading either to perpetual poverty or potential prosperity, by determining whether they will continue to accept poor governance combined with the effective veto over government decisions that Hezbollah insists upon (while simultaneously rebuffing any public accountability for Hezbollah’s own often deadly actions). Lebanese voters may not be able to strip Hezbollah of its arsenal overnight, but they can seize the next electoral opportunity to strip Hezbollah of the parliamentary partners it uses as force multipliers to assert its will politically: thus, Nasrallah’s red line against early elections.
THE PROTESTS MAY NOT PRODUCE IMMEDIATE CHANGES, BUT A CONSTRUCTIVE PROCESS HAS BEGUN
As of this writing, it is not clear that Lebanon’s besieged political class has any clue what kind of government might satisfy the demands of the street. The candidate currently being discussed for the premiership, businessman and former Finance Minister Mohamed Safadi, does not seem to represent a break from past practices, as initial hostility on the streets indicates.
Arguing that they are concerned about safety in a country where political leaders and social activists have been routinely murdered, the demonstrators have intentionally rejected the idea of promoting leaders out of the protests to negotiate on their behalf. This leaves an inchoate impression about who and what might be acceptable. (One has images of the scenes from the movie and play “Network,” of people shouting from the windows about “not wanting to take it anymore,” but without any clear proposal about what would replace the status quo.) This is an ominous sign that the status quo establishment figures, otherwise so divided, might find common cause in evading accountability and replacement, since the “street” might be less united than the picturesque demonstrations (complete with pots of bougainvillea as decoration) suggest.
Moreover, in contradiction to the carefully nurtured non-sectarian image of the demonstrations, some public frustration in Sunni-majority areas such as Tripoli emerged that “Sunni interests” were damaged when PM Hariri (a Sunni) resigned, when Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri (Shia) and President Aoun (Christian) remained in place. Lebanon’s sectarian ghosts will be hard to exorcise.
After the missteps of Nasrallah’s speeches, Hezbollah must be recalculating along with other status quo leaders about how to retain their prerogatives while somehow managing the popular mood. According to one rumor, some traditional sectarian leaders are musing about allowing an authentically technocratic cabinet to emerge – in the belief that the technocrats will “own” the predicted financial collapse, thus paving a way for the traditional leaders to pick their way through the financial rubble in a rush back to power. The preliminary (if temporary) nod to Safadi, however, suggests that the protestors are not going to get the purely technocratic cabinet they appear to want. But the sustained, widespread criticism of Lebanon’s political class, sectarianism, and of Hezbollah have broken significant taboos. Furthermore, Syria’s proxies in Lebanon and Iran’s proxies in Lebanon – once viewed as virtually indistinguishable, singing their “resistance” duet in sinister harmony – show nascent but unprecedented signs of divergence. Even if not all the potential gains are realized immediately, 2019 is a turning point for Lebanon.
THE U.S. CANNOT DETERMINE BUT CAN INFLUENCE THE OUTCOME
The 2005 protests, which successfully forced the entrenched Syrian military and intelligence assets to leave Lebanon, offer an important lesson for today: the value of domestic initiative combined with external support. Had, say, the United States and France pushed 14 years ago for the Syrians to decamp to their side of the border, and had the Lebanese stayed home, the Syrians could have resisted the external pressure to go. Had the United States and France been looking away, uninterested, when the Lebanese took to the streets in such massive numbers, the Syrians would have displayed no qualms in crushing the demonstrations by force. The combination of Lebanese on the streets in massive numbers and the attention by the international community, led by the United States under President George W. Bush and France under President Jacques Chirac, gave the Syrians no viable option except the exit.
As in 2005, sustained attention and interest today – by Congress, by the Administration, by the UN Security Council, by others — can help protect the demonstrators. But the demonstrations cannot continue indefinitely, especially as average citizens tire of interruptions to daily lives and worry about the economic costs of paralysis. Sustained U.S. interest, attention and messaging can make a difference as the Lebanese struggle to decide how to proceed beyond the home-grown protests.
The trick for us is nuance. It would be unwise to interfere directly in Lebanese political decisions, which would make it too easy for Nasrallah (or Syria, Iran or Russia) to cite credible examples in predictable attempts to discredit the protestors and their demands as U.S.-directed. Nor should we be seen to be in the business of picking Lebanon’s next prime minister (Safadi or anyone else) or specific cabinet ministers; those are exclusively Lebanese decisions. But as our own national interests and those of our regional allies will be affected by what happens in Lebanon, we have a responsibility to clarify our own views by our action and by our words. The Lebanese deserve to understand fully what the implications will be of the decisions they make on cabinet appointments and policies.
As a first step, the military assistance now under review should be rapidly released. This would put the U.S. on the side of national, credible institutions. At a time when the LAF’s popularity is trending mostly upwards compared to what appears to be Hezbollah’s reputational decline, we can reinforce what is, for us and for Lebanon, a positive momentum. Release of the assistance would also undermine the ongoing attempts by Hezbollah, Iran, Syria and Russia to entice the Lebanese into their orbits by calling into question U.S. reliability. Our military aid is never provided unconditionally; we also benefit from the partnership with the LAF. Our expectation that the LAF would improve its professionalism and readiness has been demonstrated vividly by successful counter-terrorism measures and by the (mostly) appropriate response to the protests. The United States can link the release of the FMF with an insistence that the LAF remain outside of politics and treat peaceful demonstrators with equal respect across the entire country, in Nabatieh as well as Beirut.
I would also recommend that we find ways publicly to reinforce the position that we do not want to see the financial or political collapse of Lebanon (lest chaos and civil war provide further opportunities for Iran, Syria and Russia to interfere) – but that our ability to mobilize financial and economic support depends on decisions from the Lebanese themselves, including the composition and policies of Lebanon’s next government. Yes, we are willing to stand with Lebanon, but on the basis of how the Lebanese wish to proceed. If the Lebanese government finally addresses the questions of governance and accountability, the international community can respond; if the government returns to “business as usual,” we will not be able to mobilize support to prevent collapse. With the demonstrators calling for a technocratic rather than political government, our public messaging can emphasize our expectation that a new Lebanese government, if it seeks international support, should effectively and immediately address the reform aspirations of the Lebanese people.
While the decisions are theirs, the Lebanese, who have long lived complacently with the contradiction of self-identification with the West while harboring an Iranian terrorist subsidiary, need to understand the implications of the path they choose. In previous financial crises in Lebanon, Arab Gulf states shifted foreign currency deposits to the Lebanese Central Bank temporarily to shore up reserves; this could be repeated. The U.S., along with France and others, can lead engagement with the International Financial Institutions regarding support to Lebanon. With the right people and policies in place, a new Lebanese government might finally implement the reforms that could trigger release of a reformulated $11 billion assistance package pledged at an international conference in Paris in 2018. Such measures would offer the Lebanese officials a brief respite, while they enact reforms — long promised, never delivered, and now demanded by the population — to put Lebanon’s finances on a sustainable footing and to promote economic growth. But given past foot-dragging, the burden is on the Lebanese officials to overcome domestic and international skepticism, by choosing credible faces and policies for the incoming cabinet. Continued cronyism, corruption and coddling of Hezbollah will lead ever downward, while reform, accountability, transparency and reliance on national institutions instead of Hezbollah can attract the type of support to lead to a better destination, with the United States and others offering support and partnership. That should be our message.
Over the long term, U.S. interests in Lebanon would be best protected by what the Lebanese people indicate that they want: a prosperous, democratic, independent, fully sovereign, peaceful Lebanon, reliant (including for security) on effective, transparent government institutions subject to public accountability. With the right government in place and with renewed international support, this should not be impossible to achieve. At a bit more than 10,000 square kilometers, Lebanon is smaller than the New York City metropolitan area. The population of greater New York exceeds 20 million, whereas Lebanon, even including Syrian and Palestinian refugees, has a population of well under 7 million. Surely it can’t be that difficult to provide reliable electricity, internet, and garbage collection to a Lebanese citizenry that, in general, is both well-educated and internationally connected. Nor should it be that expensive under the right leadership to attract support to put the financial situation on a better course: to put this in perspective, Lebanon’s entire external debt (around $35 billion) is in line with the estimates of what Saudi Arabia is bleeding every year in pursuing a war in Yemen ($25-40 billion).
By releasing the military assistance now, by demonstrating we are paying close attention, and by making crystal clear the implications, good or bad, of the choices the Lebanese make, we can serve our own interests, contribute to the calculations the Lebanese will make regarding cabinet and policy decisions, and prevent a vacuum that others would fill to our detriment. I again thank Congress and this Subcommittee for focusing on U.S. interests in Lebanon.
https://www.brookings.edu/testimonies/whats-next-for-lebanon-examining-the-implications-of-current-protests/
