Supporters hopeful, but Aoun’s road to Baabda still unclear Hasan Lakkis/The Daily Star/June 11/16
Free Patriotic Movement founder Michel Aoun has yet to secure his path to the presidency, despite optimism within his party that he will be elected president next month after Eid al-Fitr. Parliamentary sources close to Aoun explained that neither he nor anyone close to him has received any information that former Prime Minister Saad Hariri has changed his position on the candidates, and added that there are currently no indications that Aoun will make it to Baabda’s Presidential Palace. Last year, Hariri nominated Marada Movement leader Sleiman Frangieh for the presidency as a part of an internationally backed initiative to end the power vacuum. Frangieh is also supported by Speaker Nabih Berri and a number of independent lawmakers.
Despite this, sources explained that the FPM and its allies are optimistic that things are heading in the right direction. They said this optimism could have resulted from a series of recent revelations.
The FPM may have drawn inspiration from comments made by Interior Minister Nouhad Machnouk about Hariri’s adoption of Frangieh as his candidate for the presidency, and his subsequent suggestion that he was not Hariri’s personal choice for the top post.
It appears as if Machnouk’s comments may have paved the way for Hariri to let go of his commitment to Frangieh. And Hariri’s suggestion to Hezbollah Secretary-General Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah that they bring their two candidates together may yet happen, which could also push Hariri to abandon’s Frangieh’s nomination.
Earlier this month, Machnouk said in a TV interview that Hariri’s nomination of Frangieh for the presidency was initially proposed by Britain, the U.S., and Saudi Arabia.
Frangieh is standing against MP Michel Aoun, who is supported by Hezbollah and some of its March 8 allies, along with the Lebanese Forces. Both Aoun and Frangieh belong to the Hezbollah-led March 8 coalition.
As a way out of the presidential impasse, Hariri has urged Nasrallah to bring Aoun and Frangieh together to try to convince one of them to bow out of the race. FPM supporters might also be drawing hope from remarks by Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblatt. Jumblatt, who initially expressed his support for Frangieh’s nomination, said that if Christian leaders agreed on Aoun as a president, he wouldn’t stand against their choice.
The ongoing belief that Aoun’s ascendancy to the presidency could come as part of a package deal, which would see Hariri reinstalled as prime minister, is another sign to some that it may yet come to pass. The FPM’s optimism has also been affected by the continued failure of Arab and regional efforts to find consensus on another figure to fill the vacant presidency. Lebanon entered its third year without a president in May. The post has been empty since former President Michel Sleiman left office, and Parliament has failed dozens of times to elect a successor.
Nevertheless, the same sources admit that Aoun’s election as a president remains linked to regional developments, alluding to a Saudi-Iranian accord and the translation of this agreement in ways that Hezbollah could agree on. Such a deal will determine the future of complex national issues, including the tripartite equation of the people, the Army, and the Resistance, and how the Lebanese state will deal with the latest financial sanctions on Hezbollah. The position on Syria would also prove to be a contentious issue in such talks, especially if Syrian President Bashar Assad remains in power. Observers believe that he will not step down any time soon.
