Martin Chulov/The Guardian/This is the end of times: Lebanon struggles to find political path through its crisis/مارتن تشولوف: هذه نهاية الزمان: لبنان يكافح لإيجاد طريق لخلاصه السياسي من خلال أزمته/Sami Moubayed/Gulf News/Lebanon’s political crisis hits a serious deadlock/سامي مبيض: وصلت الأزمة السياسية في لبنان إلى طريق مسدود خطير
Lebanon’s political crisis hits a serious deadlock Sami Moubayed/Gulf News/June 30, 2021 سامي مبيض/ جلف نيوز/ وصلت الأزمة السياسية في لبنان إلى طريق مسدود خطير
This is the end of times’: Lebanon struggles to find political path through its crisis Martin Chulov/The Guardian/July 30/2021 مارتن تشولوف/الجارديان: هذه نهاية الزمان: لبنان يكافح لإيجاد طريق لخلاصه السياسي من خلال أزمته
As the country suffers from hyperinflation and shortages of fuel and medical supplies, pressure is growing at home and abroad to address its governance quagmire.
The lights dimmed further in Lebanon last month when two giant barges that had boosted its electricity grid were switched off. The result was six hours less power a day for most homes, or more need for generator fuel for those who could afford it.
However, fuel is also in short supply in the crisis-hit nation. Giant queues clog roads near filling stations and top-ups are limited to 20 litres, making most journeys precarious.
Over the weekend, troops deployed in the northern city of Tripoli, surrounding key state institutions after a night of protests and riots against worsening living conditions left several protesters and 10 soldiers injured. Drugs and medical supplies are scarce too, with many acute diseases going untreated.
According to many Lebanese, those now include the rot at the heart of the state, which 18 months after the first signs of economic crisis remains as potent as ever. As Lebanon disintegrates, diplomats, aid chiefs, global officials and even some local leaders are pondering the very viability of a state that refuses to reform even to save itself.
Almost 11 months after last August’s catastrophic explosion at Beirut’s port, there have been no breakthroughs in attempts to form a government – even as hyperinflation and a broken banking system destroy savings, food insecurity soars and a brain drain quickens.
“The explosion … has accelerated a lot of things, that’s for sure,” said Najat Rochdi, UN resident and humanitarian coordinator for Lebanon. “The crisis in the economy, the currency devaluation, as well as the governance vacuum, has meant a breakdown of public services at a time when they are most needed.”
Across Lebanon, extreme poverty has risen threefold since the first signs almost two years ago that the economy was approaching a precipice. For many households, basic services including health, electricity, water, internet and education are almost out of reach, but this has made little impact on politicians intent on protecting a patronage system run along the sectarian lines that has undermined competent governance for decades.
The country’s politicians remain incapable of compromising on cabinet portfolios and quotas, and their intransigence serves as a reality check to hopes that ministries could in the future be run as institutions instead of fiefdoms.
But where global bodies and international governments had been more or less willing to support Lebanon during past – far less severe – crises, the catastrophe this time is seen as largely avoidable – more a governance issue than a humanitarian one.
“The development of Lebanon is the responsibility of the Lebanese,” Rochdi said. “The development of Lebanon is not the responsibility of the international community.”
Such bluntness has been difficult to digest for civil war leaders and their loyalists who still hold sway over the country’s affairs. France, a long-term benefactor of Lebanon, has repeatedly told senior officials that aid will only start flowing after reforms, such as transparency and a central bank audit, are introduced.
“They still think a bailout is coming,” said one Lebanese acting minister. “Because they see the global community as secular humanists who won’t let us drown. What if they’re wrong? We all go down with the ship, and the villains get a life raft to France?”
Even that seems increasingly unlikely. As the Lebanese pound hits record levels of almost 16,000 to the dollar – it was 1,500 to the dollar 18 months ago – and reserves kept in the country’s central bank fall to near-critical levels, there is more readiness both in Lebanon and abroad to examine the system that paved a way for such a mess.
Extra attention has been paid to the schemes that lined the pockets of the political class and a range of other untouchables, including some security chiefs. Among the biggest sources of corruption have been Lebanon’s essential contracts – covering fuel importation, electricity generation, telecommunications, biometrics and passports.
“Lately, it has become the sale of subsidised goods [by the central bank] to Syria, especially fuel and medicines,” the minister said. “It’s all taking place in plain sight.”
One European diplomat described the fuel crisis as a scam. “There is no fuel shortage. It is being kept on ships by local suppliers as a way to increase margins and it is being shipped to Syria where it is sold at higher prices than they could reach on the local markets. The mark-ups are being pocketed by all manner of players.”
“The same systems and people who led us down this path are the ones who are supposed to get us out of it. But they don’t want to. You can’t fix a problem that refuses to be fixed.”
Some Lebanese politicians, including Samy Gemayel, who resigned from the parliament after the explosion at the port, have called for the administrative decentralisation of Lebanon and an overhaul of the country’s parliament and electoral laws. “If we hold on to the past and don’t learn the lessons of history, we are ruined,” he said. “We have enormous challenges across the board and it is past time to face them.”
While the political quagmire is yet to bring about change, there are signs that the country’s leaders are starting to feel the heat. Sanctions were imposed by the US on former foreign minister Gebran Bassil, who is a potential candidate to replace his ageing father-in-law, Michel Aoun, as president. France and the European Union have hinted they may follow suit with other leaders, including the head of the central bank, Riad Salameh.
“Up until this point they have given cover for each other,” said the minister. “They all know which corrupt deals have enriched which clans, and they know each other’s vulnerabilities. It’s been an omertà code until now.”
However, in May a judge loyal to Bassil raided a financial house that worked on behalf of Salameh, who is close to Lebanon’s powerful parliamentary speaker, Nabih Berri. Several weeks later, a judge loyal to Berri opened a corruption investigation into a contract between a Turkish company responsible for the power barges, and the ministry of energy, which had been run by Bassil. The lights went off later, with the company claiming it was owed almost $200m in arrears, and a financial prosecutor alleging widespread impropriety over many years.
“There used to be a time when we Lebanese would say as long as the country continues to run, we will look the other way,” said Suhaib Zogibi, a Beirut merchant. “But this is the end of times, and if one thing can come of this, it has to be the end of impunity.”
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https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/28/this-is-the-end-of-times-lebanon-struggles-to-find-political-path-through-its-crisis?fbclid=IwAR1V0BZhH3I4mZt_–QyE9GOXe0h4xByyPO8u7rfUtPDh9H68HZMZKG2YHI
Lebanon’s political crisis hits a serious deadlock Sami Moubayed/Gulf News/June 30, 2021 09:25 : سامي مبيض/ جلف نيوز/ وصلت الأزمة السياسية في لبنان إلى طريق مسدود خطير
Whether Hezbollah is going to respond to Gibran Basil’s appeal is yet to be seen
Recently the Lebanese President Michel Aoun was quoted saying: “He who is neutral has betrayed the truth without supporting falsehood.” This is a famous saying attributed to Ali Ibn Abi Talib, the fourth righteous caliph and son-in-law of Prophet Mohammed (PBUH). Aoun was using it in discrete reference to his allies in Hezbollah, who are claiming neutrality in the political conflict that is currently underway, between his son-in-law Gibran Basil and Prime Minister-designate Saad Al Hariri.
It was rare criticism from Lebanon’s octogenarian president, who owes his seat of power to Hezbollah.
An open letter to Nasrallah
The thinly veiled message was preceded by an open letter from Nabil Nicola, a member of Aoun’s Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) to Hezbollah secretary-general Hasan Nasrallah dated June 15, 2021. Nicola said that Hezbollah was accused of supporting smuggling and watching the state being looted, criticising Nasrallah for supporting a sectarian ally (in reference to Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri) over a Lebanese partner (in reference to Aoun) who is supported by the sons of all regions and sects.”
Berri, it must be noted, is supporting Hariri against Gibran Basil, with the full backing of Nasrallah. He was never too happy with the Aoun presidency, having preferred that the job goes to Suleiman Frangieh, leader of the Marada Party, a ranking member of the Hezbollah-led March 8 Coalition.
Berri realises that the forthcoming cabinet will probably be the last in the Aoun era, which ends in October 2022, and wants to make sure that it is crafted in a way that prevents Aoun from extending his term or making Basil the next president of Lebanon.
Nicola’s letter to Nasrallah triggered a most unusual response from Hisham Saffiddine, head of Hezbollah’s Executive Council, a person who rarely comments on Lebanese domestics and happens to be the cousin of Nasrallah. He fired back at Basil without naming him, accusing him of obstructing cabinet formation and seeking personal gains, rather than national interests, while stressing that Hezbollah stands firmly behind Nabih Berri’s mediation efforts.
Multi-faceted problems
The Aounists are furious with Hezbollah for supporting Hariri’s comeback and ignoring an objection made by Basil’s FPM since November 2020. Since then, Hezbollah leaders have feigned neutrality in the tug-of-war between Hariri and Basil, standing at arms-length from the FPM’s claim to strategic posts in the new government, like foreign affairs, interior, justice, and energy. They have also refused to support Basil’s insistence that gets to name all nine Christian ministers in the new cabinet, when/if it is formed.
Behind closed doors, Hezbollah has even supported Hariri’s bid to name two out of nine Christian ministers, which has endorsed by Berri yet flatly been rejected by Aoun and Basil. Both say that this is unacceptable, firing back — also behind closed doors — that Hezbollah would never allow Hariri to name all Shiite ministers, and nor would his allies in the Amal Movement. But that’s not the only reason why the FPM is angry with Hezbollah. Another reason is Basil’s attempt at hijacking the maritime talks with Israel, which began last year under UN auspices.
Hezbollah signed off those talks very unwillingly, conditioning that only maritime issues are discussed and that the negotiating team is composed strictly of military personnel, with no civilians. Basil has been trying to replace the current military delegation with one composed of civilians, which includes staffers from the presidency and advisers from the Foreign Ministry, which is controlled by the FPM.
Last December, Basil requested that a special committee is formed to revisit the Mar Mikhail Agreement of 2006, which famously made Michel Aoun president in 2016.
Nasrallah agreed to revisit the agreement, but has since stalled at convening a meeting, not wanting to give an impression that he supported Basil’s bid for president, when his father-in-law’s term ends or if he is incapacitated before then. Nasrallah has also refused Basil’s demand that a new agreement is drafted for his sake, agreeing only to revision of the 2006 document.
Basil’s impossible demands
Hezbollah literarily inherited Gibran Basil from Michel Aoun, to whom it has been allied for the past fifteen years. It never trusted Basil, however, considering him a manipulator, but was forced to deal more diligently with him after US sanctions were slapped on Basil last November, due to his alliance with Hezbollah.
Basil demanded many rewards for being targeted by the Trump Administration, like being given full say on who becomes premier, the lion’s share of cabinet posts, and a promise to be made president.
He also demanded that Hezbollah supports his attempt to extend the mandate of Lebanon’s current parliament, which ends in May 2022. He fears that any early elections would diminish his current share of parliament, a major bloc of 29 MPs.
Basil’s reputation has been severely damaged by the October Revolution of 2019, which angry Lebanese took to the streets, demanding rehaul of the political system.
Much of their anger was unleashed on Basil, who at the time was serving as foreign minister. He was accused, among other things, of nepotism, corruption, and misuse of public office. Much of that was due to his own malpractice, and Basil became a heavy burden for Hezbollah.
A revised French Initiative
French President Emmanuel Macron has silently altered his road map for Lebanon, which was conveyed to Lebanese leaders last September. He had originally called for rotation of cabinet posts, which he has now realised that none of the political parties will accept. Instead, the French initiative is now focused on upcoming parliamentary elections, making sure that they happen on schedule and lead to real change within the political system. Hezbollah doesn’t mind early elections, nor elections on time next May.
It is confident of its Shiite constituency, and the same applies to Hariri, who stands unchallenged among Lebanese Sunnis. The only party that would lose in any election is the FPM and high on the list of losers would be Gibran Basil himself.
Basil’s U-turn
Aborting the vote — or manipulating it — would be impossible without Hezbollah support, and Basil realises that only too well. He also has a very low chance of becoming president without the support of Nasrallah.
On June 20 he came out with a personal appeal to Nasrallah, trying to fix what his Aoun and Nicola had wrecked, saying: “Sayyed Hasan, I know that you never fail from the truth.” He also delegated Nasrallah officially to negotiate on behalf of the FPM to solve the cabinet crisis.
Whether Hezbollah will respond to Basil’s appeal is yet to be seen. As the Lebanese wait, the country falls from own pitfall to another, sinking into chaos, need, and a chronic gasoline shortage, topped with a deteriorating currency that is holding people by the throat, diminishing what remains of their already razor-thin savings and plunging them, and their country, further into poverty.
https://gulfnews.com/opinion/op-eds/lebanons-political-crisis-hits-a-serious-deadlock-1.80297034
