Hussain Abdul-Hussain: Macron could pressure Iran to disarm Hezbollah, but instead he was weak/حسين عبدالله حسن: كان بإمكان ماكرون أن يضغط على إيران لتجريد حزب الله من سلاحه لكنه تصرف بضعف/Ruwan Al-Rejoleh: If Macron wants to rescue Lebanon, Hezbollah must go/روان الرجولي: إذا كان فعلاً يسعى ماكرون لإنقاذ لبنان يجب انهاء دور ووجود حزب الله

195

Macron could pressure Iran to disarm Hezbollah, but instead he was weak
Hussain Abdul-Hussain/Al Arabiya/Thursday 03 September 2020
حسين عبدالله حسين/العربية: كان بإمكان متكرون أن يضغط على إيران لتجريد حزب الله من سلاحه لكننه تصرف بضعف

If Macron wants to rescue Lebanon, Hezbollah must go
Ruwan Al-Rejoleh/Al Arabiya/September 03/2020
روان الرجولي/العربية: إذا كان فعلاً يسعى ماكرون لإنقاذ لبنان يجب انهاء دور ووجود حزب الله
For too long in Lebanon and across the region, Hezbollah’s malign behaviour has been given a free pass. Despite naivety from many in the West, Hezbollah’s ‘reform’ is impossible. Since the explosion last month, after decades of destructive behaviour, it is clear that the corrupt political movement is just the polished, media-savvy arm of its violent and extremist paramilitaries.
Hezbollah’s contempt for modernity and democracy runs deep. From backroom deals with political elites, to open support and cooperation with an Iranian regime determined to destabilise the Middle East. Decades of dialogue have been pointless. Since reaching an accord with Lebanon’s President Michel Aoun after the murder of Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in 2005, the group have set about business as usual, indiscriminately bombing civilians, and provoking Israel and the US.
The people that suffer most are the Lebanese. Caught in the crossfire, literally, as Hezbollah embeds its military infrastructure in civilian areas, let alone its cross borders operations.
The Special Tribunal for Lebanon that investigated the deaths of the former Prime Minister and twenty-one innocent civilians at the bloodied hands of Hezbollah should have called for the group to be removed in its entirety from Lebanon. But it is clear the tribunal shied away, fearing it would spark yet more bloodshed.
This cowardice is not justice for those suffering from Hezbollah’s crimes. Justice for these victims and countless others can be served no other way. Hezbollah has proven over decades it cannot be trusted, much less to govern.
French President Emmanuel Macron was received warmly in Beirut by a desperate population angry at their lives being blighted by extremism and corruption. But now he needs to act.
Macron must rectify the tribunal’s glaring omission and attach the full condemnation of Hezbollah to political reform as a precondition for aid to Lebanon. A proposal recently delivered by the French Ambassador to Beirut, seen by Reuters, falls short; and calls only for action on COVID-19, reconstruction of the port, economic reforms and an early election.
Short-term international support is not enough, failing the restoration of Lebanon’s ability to self-govern which has proven impossible with Hezbollah. While investigations into the blast are ongoing, it would be the greatest injustice of all for a prime suspect of the chemical’s reckless storage to be handed a role in rebuilding Lebanon today.
Domestic turmoil in Lebanon is mirrored throughout the region. In Syria, Hezbollah and other Shia militia, fighting alongside their Iranian backers, have sought to bolster Assad, smuggling weapons and killing thousands of civilians. Unchecked, Hezbollah’s violence has become emboldened and unbound.
As both a militia and a political movement, Hezbollah will always answer to hostile foreign powers over the voice of the Lebanese people. Both have put the interests of Iran ahead of Lebanon openly, at home and abroad, and that false distinction can no longer be made, nor further excuses given, if the country is to meaningfully recover from the current crisis.
It should also be no surprise that, as the only militia still refusing to disarm and the first known Islamist group to use suicide bombers, Hezbollah has yet again set about wreaking havoc and sewing chaos in Lebanon. Grounded in radical Shia Islamism, Hezbollah’s 1985 manifesto pledged allegiance to Iran’s Supreme Leader, vowing to build an Iranian-inspired Islamist regime in Lebanon.
Even before the explosion, Hezbollah saw itself become a target of the mass protests that have been gathering across the country since the October 17, 2019 , even in the group’s traditional strongholds. While the political elite faces international scrutiny, Lebanon knows that Hezbollah is also at the heart of the rot after decades of broken promises and corruption laid bare.
As Al Arabiya English reported and the DC-based think tank the Atlantic Council have outlined, Hezbollah and their allies in the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) have even begun using the courts to undermine the rule of law in Lebanon. Hezbollah and the FPM have allegedly used FPM-aligned judges to bring groundless, politically motivated charges against opposition politicians and entrepreneurs, including the well-known Lebanese businessman Teddy Rahmeh.
Lebanon’s political actors must be trusted to follow the rule of law, from the prohibitions against murder to the rules of a functioning economy. Yet Hezbollah has consistently shown it cannot rise to that task. To restore order, President Macron must listen to Lebanon’s protesters calling from the streets that Hezbollah can have no role in the country’s future.
Rebuilding Beirut’s port and light-touch reforms are not enough. Macron’s list of demands must include the complete disarmament of its militia, dismissal of its politicians, and disavowal of Hezbollah’s ideology to ensure peace, democracy and economic growth in Lebanon.
Lebanese youth deserve political representation that is not rooted to the civil war. A real political system should be presented as an alternative to the current dysfunction. Dealing with Hezbollah is just the tip of the iceberg especially with its political blocs and alliances. It is not an easy task but action should have been taken years ago.
The international community has already come to a view. Now is the time for Macron’s ‘new political pact’ to enact it for the Lebanese people by denying Hezbollah a seat at the table.
**Ruwan Al-Rejoleh is an independent political consultant and analyst with a focus on geopolitics and extreme religious groups in the Middle East and North Africa. A Syrian national born in Washington DC, Ruwan is currently based in DC and is the Founder and CEO of a geopolitical advisory firm and a former analyst at the Tony Blair Institute.

Macron could pressure Iran to disarm Hezbollah, but instead he was weak
Hussain Abdul-Hussain/Al Arabiya/Thursday 03 September 2020
حسين عبدالله/العربية: بإمكان متكرون أن يجرد حزب الله من سلاحه ولكننه تصرف بضعف
France’s President Emmanuel Macron has taken the wrong approach in Lebanon, failing to assert French influence to pressure Iran to disarm Hezbollah and bring about real change.
Nothing shows the toothlessness of French diplomacy in Lebanon more than Macron telling Politico that, had he insisted on the popular candidate Nawaf Salam becoming Lebanon’s new prime minister, France would have undermined Salam’s tenure “because we put him in a system in which the parliament will block everything.”
So weak is Macron’s influence that the only thing he had to offer was to hold “frank, long and repeated conversations with the ruling class, threatening to withhold aid and impose sanctions,” wrote Politico. Even the policy of “long conversations” assumes that the ruling class – a rubber stamp outfit for the actual ruler, Hezbollah – can actually decide on anything in the country whose economy has been in free fall.
Macron seems unaware of the main principle of diplomacy: Speak softly and carry a big stick. In the Middle East, Macron does not offer a coherent strategy that gives him enough carrots and sticks to conduct his diplomacy. Even sanctions on Lebanon’s rulers are an American tool.
In fact, the French president had forfeited his leverage long before the Beirut port explosion, which prompted a sudden burst of French interest in Lebanon. By then, it had become common knowledge that Beirut’s decisions are made in Tehran. Yet instead of formulating a policy that bargains with Iran for an independent Lebanon – leveraging Tehran’s need of French support for the Iran nuclear deal for concessions in Lebanon – Macron incorrectly assumed that Lebanon could be fixed independently like a normal state.
Like Britain and Germany, France has endorsed a policy of appeasement toward Tehran’s regime. When US President Donald Trump asked that changes be made to the Iran nuclear deal, the Europeans started a mediation effort that collapsed under Iranian refusal to make any sunset clauses permanent. When America reimposed unilateral sanctions on Iran, France and the Europeans ducked.
Then came the expiry of UN arms embargo on Iran. The Europeans supported America on the need to extend the embargo at the UN, but when Washington put forward a resolution to that effect before the Security Council, France, Britain and Germany voted against it.
For some reason, perhaps lucrative contracts (such as the development of Iran’s Pars oil field by French oil and gas company Total, which was dropped after Trump reimposed US sanctions), France prefers to appease Iran rather than confront its destabilizing activities in the Middle East, especially in Lebanon. When Paris concedes its leverage with Iran, it loses its power in Lebanon. Macron was correct. With his weak hand, all he could offer was long conversations.
Macron steered clear from the real reform required to rescue Lebanon – disarming Hezbollah. The French president justified avoiding this subject by saying that he opposed whatever leads to military escalation, the same excuse given by Iran apologists in Washington, who oppose anything other than concessions to Iran based on the incorrect assumption that twisting Iran’s arm will certainly lead to war.
Disarming Hezbollah is impossible with war, and only possible through Lebanese consensus despite Hezbollah’s opposition. Whenever Lebanon’s ruling class spoke with one voice, it achieved what had previously seemed impossible, such as ejecting Palestinian militias in 1982, and Syrian troops in 2005.
To cover for his weakness and for the fact that he was only putting some good spin on an otherwise bad Iranian policy in Lebanon, Macron highlighted the cultural side of his visit. The French president therefore met with Lebanese diva singer Fairouz and decorated her with a French medal. He also met with protesters and took some great photos.
In Paris, intellectuals jumped on Macron’s bandwagon. Historian Henry Laurens told the French paper Le Monde that while Lebanon was “still important because of Hezbollah,” he argued that the Iran-backed militia was “no longer a priority because, in the meantime, Iraq and Syria have collapsed.” Laurens failed to notice that “collapse” in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon was due to the exact same reason: That Iran dominates these countries with its proxy militias.
Laurens said that France’s reasons to care about Lebanon were “more sentimental than anything else,” a statement unfitting for a historian who knows that foreign policy is about interests rather than sentiments.
Lebanon needs help, and Macron’s attention is welcome. But help is needed for fundamental change that includes disarming Hezbollah, a gargantuan task that is only possible through convincing the ruling class that the party cannot protect their corruption anymore, but will rather bring them down with it under international pressure and sanctions. Once the oligarchs gang up on Hezbollah and sink it, rebuilding Lebanon from scratch, including constitutionally, fiscally and financially, becomes possible.
Otherwise, by demanding early elections, in a country where a militia can coerce results in its own favor, Macron is doing Hezbollah a favor by whitewashing a failing system.
The attention that the president of France gave to Lebanon felt promising at first. But on his second trip, Macron seemed to have little policy and leverage and a lot of talk aimed at making more of the same look better.
Macron’s visit to Lebanon certainly took the Lebanese to a nostalgic past, but did not offer them any promising future.