A Bundle Of English Reports, News and Editorials For March 10-11/2020 Addressing the On Going Mass Demonstrations & Sit In-ins In Iranian Occupied Lebanon in its 146th Day
Compiled By: Elias Bejjani
March 11/2020
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on March 10-11/2020
Rating Agencies Warn Lebanon over $1.2 Billion Loan Default
Nephew of Parliament Police Chief Held for Firing at Kataeb HQ
Report: Cabinet to Discuss Economic Plan, ‘Capital Control’
Wazni: Lebanon Foreign Reserves More than $20 Billion
Lebanon Records First Coronavirus Death
MoPH accredits new laboratories to test for coronavirus at LBP 150,000
Lebanon reports its first coronavirus-related death
Aoun Says Govt. Must Devise Plans for Debt and Restructuring of Banks
Oueidat Hears Testimonies of Banks Counsels, Owners, Chairmen
Eleven new coronavirus cases and one recorded casualty in Lebanon/Perla Kantarjian/Annahar/March 10/2020
Lebanon Banks Agree to Ease Some Curbs on Cash-Starved Depositors
Lebanon: Requesting IMF’s Help Heralds Political Clash
Lebanese Parliament Shut For A Week Over Coronavirus Fears
Jumblatt Accuses Govt. of Using ‘Tools of Totalitarian Darkness’
Strong Lebanon Bloc meets in periodic session to discuss financial situation
Abdel Samad after cabinet session: Public debt must be restructured, reform plan pursued
Wazni meets French diplomat over economic situation
Kataeb chief tackles overall situation with Algerian ambassador
Lebanon, the Dilemmas of a Monumental Unraveling
Charles Elias Chartoun/March 10/2020
In Lebanon, Criticism Of New Government: A Puppet Government Controlled By Hizbullah That Won’t Extricate Country From Its Crisis/MEMRI/March 10/2020
Lebanon faces mayhem after defaulting on its debt/Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib/Arab News/March 10/2020
The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on March 10-11/2020
Rating Agencies Warn Lebanon over $1.2 Billion Loan Default
Associated Press/Naharnet/March 10/2020
Credit ratings agency Moody’s warned Tuesday that Lebanon’s first-ever default on paying its sovereign debt will likely lead to significant losses for private creditors as well as serious implications for the country’s banking sector. Prime Minister Hassan Diab on Saturday said the government will suspend payment of $1.2 billion in loans that matured Monday. Diab said Lebanon’s foreign currency reserves “have reached a critical stage,” leading the government to suspend its debt payment so it can continue providing basic commodities to the Lebanese people. Lebanon has been engulfed in a financial and economic crisis that has worsened since October, when the country was rocked by nationwide protests over widespread corruption and decades of mismanagement by the ruling political class. Street demonstrations have been minimal since the outbreak of the new coronavirus. The default marked a new chapter in Lebanon’s economic crisis and could have severe repercussions on the tiny Mediterranean country, risking legal action by lenders that could further aggravate and push Lebanon’s economy toward financial collapse. Diab said sovereign debt reached $90 billion or 170% of GDP, making it one of the highest in the world. He added that the total debt and interest Lebanon had to pay back in 2020 is at $4.6 billion. Moody’s, which downgraded Lebanon’s ratings last month to Ca from Caa2, said the decision to defer payment of the March 9 international bond maturity “reflects the country’s extreme financial and economic pressures and the move will likely lead to significant losses for private creditors.” “A sovereign default would have a significant negative impact on banks’ financial health, and further undermine the economy and the sustainability of the peg,” said Elisa Parisi-Capone, a Moody’s vice president and the report’s author.
She was referring to the local currency, which had been pegged to the dollar since 1997 but in recent months lost up to 60% of its value on the parallel market. Local banks, who are a main lender to the Lebanese government, have imposed crippling capital controls on cash withdrawals and transfers since November. The statement by Moody’s came a day after Fitch Ratings downgraded Lebanon’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating to C from CC. Fitch said that the $1.2 billion Eurobond payment maturing on Monday has a grace period for paying the principal of seven days. Failure to make the payment during the grace period will put the sovereign into Restricted Default, or RD, and the specific bond into Default, or D. Lebanon’s economy has been hammered over the past years by the war in neighboring Syria, the flow of more than a million Syrian refugees and a drop in remittances from the Lebanese diaspora.
Nephew of Parliament Police Chief Held for Firing at Kataeb HQ
Naharnet/March 10/2020
A man who opened fire at dawn Sunday at the headquarters of the Kataeb Party in Beirut’s Saifi area was arrested on Tuesday, TV networks said. MTV said the man, Yahia Dimashq, was arrested by the Intelligence Branch of the Internal Security Forces after it turned out that the car from which the shots were fired belongs to him. Al-Jadeed TV meanwhile said that Dimashq is a nephew of Parliament Police chief Youssef Dimashq, aka Abu Khashbeh, a powerful security aide of Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri. It said he was apprehended in the Beirut southern suburb of Msharrafiyeh.MTV meanwhile published a video showing Dimashq being arrested by armed ISF agents. Kataeb’s iconic building in downtown Beirut was hit by six gunshots according to a statement issued by the party.
Report: Cabinet to Discuss Economic Plan, ‘Capital Control’
Naharnet/March 10/2020
The government is expected to meet on Tuesday in a session dedicated to discuss the financial and monetary situation and an economic plan to salvage crisis-hit Lebanon from an unprecedented economic and liquidity crisis. Measures to counter the spread of coronavirus diseases that left thousands dead worldwide, and infected 41 so far in Lebanon will also be discussed, according to reports. According to information obtained by MTV station, “the meeting will not highlight the issue of appointments.” A ministerial source told MTV that the financial and monetary file will occupy the largest part of the discussion in the session, which will discuss referring the Capital Control Law proposal to the Parliament. The Cabinet will convene at Baabda Palace.
Wazni: Lebanon Foreign Reserves More than $20 Billion
Naharnet/March 10/2020
Cash-strapped Lebanon’s foreign reserves stand at more than $20 billion, finance minister Ghazi Wazni said Monday, amid concerns over the country’s liquidity as it stumbles towards default. The central bank “says it has $29 billion, of which it has used 7 billion to give to the banking sector” to boost its liquidity, Wazni told local broadcaster LBCI. Central bank data had put the value of foreign reserves at $35.8 billion at the end of February. Lebanon, hit by a severe liquidity crunch and months of anti-establishment protests, was due on Monday to repay a $1.2-billion Eurobond, while another $700 million matures in April, and a further $600 million is due for repayment in June. But prime minister Hassan Diab on Saturday said his government would suspend payment of the March Eurobond and seek restructuring agreements with creditors on the country’s debt pile because of plummeting foreign reserves.
Commenting on Saturday’s decision, Wazni said the aim was to achieve an “orderly default” through negotiations with creditors who could pursue legal action against the state if an agreement is not reached. Lebanon’s debt burden, long among the largest in the world, is now equivalent to nearly 170 percent of its gross domestic product. Despite its turbulent history, the small Mediterranean country has never before defaulted, but in recent months it has grappled with its worst economic turmoil since the 1975-1990 civil war. Foreign currency has become increasingly scarce, Lebanon’s pound has plunged in value and banks have imposed tough restrictions on dollar withdrawals and transfers. The government met with a delegation from the International Monetary Fund last month for technical assistance but it has not requested funds.
Lebanon Records First Coronavirus Death
Naharnet/March 10/2020
Lebanon on Tuesday has recorded its first death from the new coronavirus, a health ministry source said. The 56-year-old was receiving treatment in a state-run Beirut hospital, the ministry source told AFP, adding that he had recently returned from Egypt, where the virus has also spread. Media reports said he was hospitalized at Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Notre Dame des Secours hospital, in Jbeil. Lebanon, already hit by economic collapse and anti-government protests, is now grappling with an outbreak of the deadly COVID-19 virus — its latest in a long list of crises. Health Minister Hamad Hassan said last week that the country has moved beyond the phase of “containment” and was bracing for a more serious outbreak. Schools, universities, cafes, pubs and other public places have since been ordered shut over fears of the virus. Sport tournaments have been postponed and cultural events cancelled.
According to the health minister, the origins of Lebanon’s cases have mostly been traced to other countries. Lebanon has said it would deny entry to non-resident foreigners arriving from China, South Korea, Iran and Italy, which are among the hardest hit by the epidemic. But domestic concern is still high amid fears that Lebanon is not equipped to face a mass outbreak. With a grinding liquidity crunch and dwindling foreign reserves, Lebanon has struggled to secure the dollars needed for medical imports even before coronavirus arrived. Prime Minister Hassan Diab announced on Saturday that the country would suspend payment on Eurobonds.
Lebanon Confirms 11 New Coronavirus Cases, Total Reaches 52
Naharnet/March 10/2020
Lebanon on Tuesday confirmed eleven new coronavirus cases, raising the country’s overall tally to 52. The director of the state-run Rafik Hariri University Hospital said the 11 cases were confirmed after lab tests for 202 suspected cases over the past 24 hours. Speaking at a press conference, the director said a virus patient who died Tuesday – Lebanon’s first fatality – had arrived at the hospital in a critical condition. “We offered him the internationally endorsed treatments but he suffered complications such as hypotension and high fever which resulted in the stoppage of his heart and his death,” the director added. He also announced that other hospitals should start exerting greater efforts in the battle against the COVID-19 coronavirus. The patient who died, a 56-year-old Lebanon man coming from Egypt, had been initially admitted into the Notre Dame des Secours hospital in Jbeil and Health Minister Hamad Hasan said he was not transferred in a proper way to the Rafik Hariri hospital. TV networks said he had diabetes and that his condition worsened after taking antibiotics and after his diagnosis with the coronavirus was delayed for several days. The Notre Dame des Secours hospital said the Rafik Hariri hospital had initially refused to conduct a coronavirus test for the man seeing as he had arrived from Egypt — a country not listed as a virus hotbed at the time. The man has reportedly infected several nurses and patients at the Notre Dame des Secours hospital.
MoPH accredits new laboratories to test for coronavirus at LBP 150,000
NNA/Tuesday, 10 March, 2020
The Ministry of Public Health announced in a statement this Tuesday “The accreditation of new laboratories – next to the Rafic Hariri University Hospital lab – to conduct coronavirus tests on suspected patients, since the Hariri Hospital is approaching its maximum capacity in terms of tests.
The newly accredited laboratories are:
The American University of Beirut.
The Saint George University Hospital.
The Rizk Hospital / Lebanese American University.
The Rodolphe Merieux Laboratory at the Saint Joseph University / Hotel Dieu Hospital.
The ministry pointed out that any other hospital or private laboratory wishing to carry out these tests must submit an application to be studied by a specialized committee, in order to obtain the approval of the ministry before starting to examine patients. The tariff will amount to a maximum of 150,000 LBP.”
Lebanon reports its first coronavirus-related death
The New Arab/March 10/2020
Lebanon recorded its first death from coronavirus on Tuesday, a health ministry source said, adding that the patient had been in quarantine since returning from Egypt. A Lebanese man died on Tuesday from the novel coronavirus, a health ministry source said, marking the country’s first recorded death from an epidemic that has infected 41 people nationwide. The 56-year-old was receiving treatment in a state-run Beirut hospital, the ministry source told AFP, adding that he had recently returned from Egypt, where the virus has also spread. Earlier this week, the government halted flights for non-residents from epicenters of the virus, shut schools and warned against public gatherings. Lebanon’s health minister said hospitals were ready to deal with any further spread of the novel coronavirus in the country. Hamad Hassan said the cases had all either returned from an affected country or were transmitted through “close contact” with a family member or neighbour – not “local transmission”. All people suffering from the COVID-19 illness are being treated at Beirut’s Rafic Hariri state hospital, where 140 beds have been designated to isolate and monitor suspected cases, he added.
Hassan said measures had also been taken beyond Beirut, naming eight cities across the country where hospital wards had been put aside as Lebanon works to contain the virus nationwide. “We have designated 20 to 40 beds in each facility to follow any unexpected developments as part of a precautionary plan,” he said. They include a monitoring area for patients suspected of having caught the coronavirus along with one or two quarantine units, he said. In what he described as a “positive sign”, Hassan said the country’s first case, a 45-year-old woman who had tested positive for the virus after visiting Qom in Iran, had now tested negative. “A second laboratory test will be conducted tomorrow, and she will be discharged and sent home if the negative result is confirmed,” his ministry said earlier in a statement. That showed that “there’s no need for hysterical panic”, Hassan said.
On Friday, Lebanon said it would deny entry to non-resident foreigners arriving from China, South Korea, Iran and Italy. Schools, universities and other educational institutions have been closed until 8 March. Globally, more than 100,000 people have been infected and more than 3,800 killed since the virus first emerged in China’s Hubei province late last year. Agencies contributed to this report.
Aoun Says Govt. Must Devise Plans for Debt and Restructuring of Banks
Naharnet/March 10/2020
President Michel Aoun on Tuesday said the government must devise a plan to restructure debt, plans to restructure banks and the central bank and others for financial and administrative reform as well as economic and social affairs. He said the plans must be laid out “in parallel with the negotiations with the Eurobond holders.”Aoun voiced his remarks at the beginning of a Cabinet session in Baabda. He had earlier met with Prime Minister Hassan Diab to discuss the latest developments. The session is dedicated to tackling the financial and monetary situation. A ministerial source had told MTV that the Cabinet will discuss referring the Capital Control Law proposal to Parliament. Diab announced Saturday that Lebanon “will seek to restructure its debts in a manner consistent with the national interest” through negotiations with creditors. Diab said debt restructuring is part of a wider economic rescue plan that seeks to cut state spending and save more than $350 million annually. The premier said Lebanon must now enter into debt restructuring negotiations, which “will take time, effort, and will require painful measures.” The default marks a new chapter in the country’s financial and economic crisis and could have severe repercussions on the tiny country, risking legal action by lenders that could further aggravate and push Lebanon’s economy toward financial collapse. The currency has already lost up to 60% of its value on the dollar on the black market and banks have imposed crippling capital controls on cash withdrawals and transfers. Lebanon has been suffering in recent years from a lack of economic growth, high unemployment and a drop in hard currency inflows from abroad. The financial crisis erupted amid nationwide protests over widespread corruption and decades of mismanagement by the ruling political class.
Oueidat Hears Testimonies of Banks Counsels, Owners, Chairmen
Naharnet/March 10/2020
State Prosecutor Ghassan Oueidat on Tuesday started hearing the testimonies of the legal counsels, owners and chairmen of Lebanon’s banks over the controversial capital flight that coincided with the intensification of Lebanon’s financial and monetary crisis. The National News Agency said a statement will be issued at the end of the hearing sessions. Oueidat had on Thursday suspended an order freezing the assets of 20 banks and their directors over concerns about its impact on the country’s fragile economy. The order was postponed to allow for the “study of its impact on the national currency, banking transactions as well as on the money of savers and economic security,” Oueidat said. Lebanon has been gripped by mass protests against the political class and banking sector even as it suffers its worst economic crisis in decades. Banks have imposed increasingly tight limits on dollar withdrawals and transfers abroad as part of measures to tackle a severe liquidity crisis. But bankers stand accused of having sent millions of dollars abroad despite those limitations. The value of the Lebanese pound has plummeted on the black market, prices have risen, and many businesses have been forced to slash salaries, dismiss staff or close. Lebanon is one of the most indebted countries in the world, with a public debt equivalent to 150 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP).
Eleven new coronavirus cases and one recorded casualty in Lebanon
Perla Kantarjian/Annahar/March 10/2020
The very first registered coronavirus patient in Lebanon is said to be on her road to recovery, as she is no longer showing symptoms of the disease.
BEIRUT: Lebanon recorded its first Coronavirus casualty and 11 new cases on Tuesday. 202 suspected cases underwent the necessary laboratory examinations on Tuesday, of which 11 tested positive for the virus, raising the total local Coronavirus tally to 52, said the General Manager of Rafic Hariri University Hospital Dr. Firass Abiad, in a press conference at RHUH. As for the first recorded death from the COVID-19 in Lebanon, the deceased, 56, was a Lebanese patient who recently came from Egypt.
When symptomatic of the coronavirus, he was transferred from the Notre Dame De Secours hospital in Jbeil to RHUH. As Abiad explained, the patient came to RHUH in an already critical condition of acute pulmonary inflammation. “The patient was subjected to complications, which are hypotension and high temperature, which led to his heart stopping, and his eventual death,” he added. According to Abiad, with the increase in Coronavirus cases, the RHUH is working on raising its capacity by adding a dozen more beds within the coming three days. However, in terms of conducting tests on suspected patients, RHUH is approaching its maximum capacity. For that reason, and to cointain the virus outbreak, the Ministry of Public Health announced in a statement on Tuesday that new laboratories will be accredited to carry out coronavirus tests on suspected patients. The newly accredited laboratories are: The American University of Beirut Medical Center, The Saint George Hospital, The Rizk Hospital (Lebanese American University Medical Center), and Hotel Dieu Hospital. The ministry highlighted that any other hospital or private laboratory willing to conduct these tests must submit an application for a specialized committee to study. If the laboratory meets the requirements, it will get an approval by the ministry to start patients’ examinations. The tariff will amount to a maximum of 150,000 LBP. Additionally, with the closure of most educational, industrial, and recreational facilities in Lebanon for more than a week, the municipality of Beirut indicated in a Tuesday statement that the city’s public parks will also temporarily shut down as a preventive measure against the spread of the disease. Similarly, the Minister of Culture and Agriculture Abbas Mortada, announced that the national museum and the archeological galleries affiliated to the Ministry of Culture will also be shut down until further notice. The very first registered coronavirus patient in Lebanon is said to be on her road to recovery, as she is no longer showing symptoms.
Lebanon Banks Agree to Ease Some Curbs on Cash-Starved Depositors
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/March 10/2020
Lebanese banks Tuesday agreed to lift certain restrictions imposed last year to stem a crippling liquidity crisis, the National News Agency said.
Lebanon is grappling with its worst economic crisis in decades, as well as widespread public discontent with the political class since October.
Since September, banks have increasingly been imposing limits on withdrawals of both dollars and Lebanese pounds, as well as transfers abroad. At a meeting between State Prosecutor Ghassan Oueidat and bank representatives Tuesday, both sides agreed to new rules, NNA said. These include banks allowing depositors to withdraw up to 25 million Lebanese pounds a month (around $16,500 under the official exchange rate). Other measures include allowing transfers abroad in hard currency for education fees, medical bills, tax purposes, “and everything else necessary,” NNA said. Banks would not be allowed to withhold any part of money freshly transferred into a Lebanese account.
There was, however, no mention of an easing of caps on withdrawals from dollar accounts, which have been squeezed down to just $100 a week at some banks. A judicial source said discussions were ongoing with the central bank over relaxing those limits.
Last week, Financial Prosecutor Ali Ibrahim attempted to impose an asset freeze on banks in an apparent bid to pressure them, but that order was suspended by Oueidat within hours. Earlier in the week, Ibrahim separately called in 15 banks over an alleged more than 2 billion dollars in capital flight late last year. On Tuesday, Oueidat began hearing the testimonies of banks’ legal counsels, owners and chairmen . Lebanon is facing its worst economic crisis since its 1975-1990 civil war. The value of the Lebanese pound has plummeted by more than a third on the black market, prices have risen, and many businesses have been forced to close. The Mediterranean country, one of the most indebted in the world, this weekend announced its first default on a $1.2 billion Eurobond that matured on March 9.
Lebanon: Requesting IMF’s Help Heralds Political Clash
Beirut – Paula Astih/Tuesday, 10 March, 2020
A new clash is expected to erupt between Hezbollah and Lebanese political forces supporting the request for financial assistance from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to save the economic situation in the country. Hezbollah has publicly declared its refusal to “yield to the IMF to manage the crisis.”In this regard, member of Hezbollah’s central council, Nabil Qaouk, said that foreign aid should not be an opportunity to impose tutelage over Lebanon. He stressed the rejection of “putting our economy, society and the future of our people at the mercy of external parties.” “At the same time, we are keen on reforms that encourage external parties to provide aid,” Qaouk stated. However, politicians and economists say Lebanon has no choice but to resort to the Fund. In remarks to Asharq Al-Awsat, Future Movement MP Dima Jamali said: “Requesting the assistance of the IMF became necessary and urgent.”“The refusal to resort to the Fund cannot be justified on the pretext that it will impose difficult measures and taxes, because addressing an economic crisis in a particular country is carried out according to the specific situation of that country, and the solutions of the IMF are not necessarily the same everywhere,” she added.
For his part, Rami al-Rayes, advisor to the head of the Progressive Socialist Party, Walid Jumblatt, pointed out that all economic, financial and monetary exits were now closed. “We have no choice but to resort to the IMF after the systematic destruction of Lebanon’s foreign policy, which led to the deterioration of relations with donor countries, especially the Gulf States,” he told Asharq Al-Awsat. Rayes revealed information that none of the decisions of the CEDRE Conference would be implemented unless they were coupled with the IMF’s monitoring of the reform process, as the international community has lost confidence in the Lebanese management. Financial and Economic Expert Walid Abu Suleiman pointed out that even if the Lebanese government succeeded in curbing the deficit in the State budget, the country would be forced – in light of the scarcity of foreign currency reserves – to provide hard currencies from the IMF. “The IMF was originally created to help countries with balance of payments problems,” he said, pointing to the possibility of obtaining from the Fund $8.6 billion for a period of 3 years. Writer and political analyst specializing in Hezbollah affairs, Qassem Kassir, ruled out that the party’s position was final regarding the request for assistance from the IMF. “The party is emphasizing two basic points: The first is that no help from the Fund be associated with the imposition of huge taxes, and the second is that no political conditions be linked with the assistance,” he explained. According to the Carnegie Middle East Center, Hezbollah’s refusal to resort to the IMF “may ultimately mean the collapse of Hassan Diab’s government, and Lebanon itself.”“Resorting to the IMF is no longer an option, but rather a necessity,” the center said, noting that without such decision, “Lebanon will not be able to obtain funds to support its economy, or receive the hard currency necessary to import vital necessities, such as food and fuel.”
Lebanese Parliament Shut For A Week Over Coronavirus Fears
Beirut – Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 10 March, 2020
The Lebanese Parliament announced on Monday that its offices in Beirut would be closed for one week as part of measures to prevent the spread of the coronavirus. On Monday, Speaker Nabih Berri took a series of instructions in this regard, including the postponement of the weekly Wednesday meetings usually held at the Speakership headquarters in Ain el-Tineh. Also, the meetings of the parliamentary committees were delayed, and the lawmakers’ offices at the parliament building were shut for one week to conduct sterilization procedures. Meanwhile, sources said Lebanon witnessed less official meetings and political activities in the past few days, as part of unannounced measures to contain the spread of the virus. The Health Ministry said Monday that 41 persons have been infected with the coronavirus so far, with some recoveries and no fatalities. And while ministries and municipalities continue with their work as normal, Lebanese authorities have imposed tight measures to keep those institutions free from the virus. In this regard, sterilizers and thermometers for measuring the body temperature were being distributed to employees in some public administrations. “Public employees are attending work as normal, but they are being subject to those new measures. However, we cannot deny that fewer people were showing up at those administrations,” the source said. Lebanon already closed schools, sports clubs, nightclubs, fairs, and other venues until March 15. Authorities also suspended judicial hearings and shut down academic institutions across the country. Restaurants were exempted from this decision. However, owners are not allowed to hold parties. This week, Health Minister Hamad Hassan announced that the country is no longer in the containment phase regarding the virus.
Jumblatt Accuses Govt. of Using ‘Tools of Totalitarian Darkness’
Beirut – Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 10 March, 2020
Lebanon’s Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblatt on Monday launched an attack on Prime Minister Hassan Diab’s government, accusing it of adopting a policy of obscurity. This is the first public criticism by Jumblatt against the current government. “What is this government hiding? Its president did not mention a word about reform… [What about] the electricity sector, protecting the industry, controlling legal and illegal borders, ignoring the coronavirus, judicial appointments… and others?” he said on Twitter. He went on to accuse the government of “spreading bankruptcy and seeking revenge against a political class through the tools of hatred and total darkness.”In contrast, Jumblatt had last week called for supporting Diab’s cabinet. “In light of these massive crises of coronavirus, electricity and Eurobonds, the government must be supported above narrow considerations, because if the void comes again, we will all fall into the unknown,” he said in a tweet.
Strong Lebanon Bloc meets in periodic session to discuss financial situation
NNA/Tuesday, 10 March, 2020
“Strong Lebanon Bloc” on Tuesday held its periodic meeting, chaired by MP Gebran Bassil, at the FPM’s headquarters in Mirna Chalouhi, to discuss the current financial situation following the government’s decision to suspend Eurobonds’ payment. In a statement issued in the wake of the meeting, the bloc called for coupling the Eurobonds’ suspension decision with a comprehensive financial-economic plan, which includes the needed reforms to restore confidence in Lebanon and its financial system and as a basis for negotiations with local and international donors, with the aim of reaching an orderly debts restructuring to avoid more negative repercussions on the country’s economy and its public and private sectors. The bloc also affirmed adherence to a free economic system, including individual initiative and free competition under the ceiling of the Lebanese laws and social justice, calling for strengthening the private sector in Lebanon and protecting it as a fundamental pillar of a productive economy. The Bloc also underlined its keenness on the independence, fairness and integrity of the judiciary, voicing its rejection of any interference in its affairs. The Bloc also called on the judiciary to exercise its powers in accordance with laws in effect.
Abdel Samad after cabinet session: Public debt must be restructured, reform plan pursued
NNA/Tuesday, 10 March, 2020
Minister of Information, Manal Abdel Samad, said after the Baabda cabinet session that was chaired by President Michel Aoun: “Financial conditions must be strengthened, public debt must be restructured, and a reform program for growth and dealings must be pursued, along with the restructuring of the banking system.”
She pointed out that “indicators for 2020 are bad,” saying: “We will seek a reasonable initial surplus, and wages will remain under control.”
“The Council of Ministers has met with a number of international consultants, and studied the headlines of the reform plan, from cutting spending to recovering looted money,” Abdel Samad added.
“Prime Minister Hassan Diab confirmed that we will seek to develop the judicial system, implement anti-corruption laws, address water and electricity problems, and launch reforms in public institutions,” she stressed.
Wazni meets French diplomat over economic situation
NNA/Tuesday, 10 March, 2020
Minister of Finance, Ghazi Wazni, met Tuesday with Regional Director of the Department of Economy of the French Embassy in Beirut, Francois de Ricoflis. The pair reportedly discussed the bilateral economic and financial relations and the means to improve the financial situation in Lebanon.
Kataeb chief tackles overall situation with Algerian ambassador
NNA/Tuesday, 10 March, 2020
Kataeb party chief MP Sami Gemayel, on Tuesday welcomed at the Party’s Central House in Saifi the new Ambassador of Algeria to Lebanon, Abdel Karim Rkaibi, who came on a courtesy visit.
Discussions between the pair reportedly touched on the bilateral relations and most recent developments on the local and international arena.
شارل الياس شرتوني: كشف معضلات التحلل الكبير في لبنان
Lebanon, the Dilemmas of a Monumental Unraveling
Charles Elias Chartoun/March 10/2020
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/84032/%d8%b4%d8%a7%d8%b1%d9%84-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%8a%d8%a7%d8%b3-%d8%b4%d8%b1%d8%aa%d9%88%d9%86%d9%8a-%d9%83%d8%b4%d9%81-%d9%85%d8%b9%d8%b6%d9%84%d8%a7%d8%aa-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%aa%d8%ad%d9%84%d9%84-%d8%a7%d9%84/
The latest developments are symptomatic of the structural breakdowns that have led to the demise of whatever is left in this agonizing Republic: The endemic crisis of national legitimacy and conflicting loyalties, the recurrent trials of dysfunctional governance, the pliability to foreign interventions and its swaying impact on internal dynamics, the brittleness of economic and financial sectors in an instable environment, and the stultifying effects of destructive power politics and private interests on public policy making. The endemic instability which has repeatedly questioned Lebanon’s civil peace, constitutional governance, liberal political culture and lifestyles have permeated the Lebanese psyche and created a set of defense mechanisms which account for the survival instincts of a population used to live through alternating stages of political and civil instability, socio-economic volatility, cultural wars and intertwining internal and external conflicts. The latest episode highlights the compounded nature of the latest financial crises and their reverberations across the political, economic and social systems, highly damaging consequences, and metonymic recapitulation of the manifold existential threats which hover over the country’s future and rickety civil peace:
A- The destructive fallouts of the financial crisis are expressive of systemic deadlocks which put at stake the country’s operational sovereignty and ability to tackle them amidst ramshackle governance, imploding consensuses, and the incapacity to come up with working compromises on financial policy, in spite of the exceptional opportunities offered by the civic rebellion and the creative dynamics it elicited. The Rentier-State status that accounts for the nature of governance is no hazard, since it reflects the idosyncracies of a deeply fractured polity made up of a collection of power centers subsumed under the fiction of a Constitutional State.The nature of the public debt which has been building up throughout the last three decades, reveals the arcanes of a plundering mechanism operated by the coalesced Sunnite and Shiite oligarchies, and their ancillaries among different Christian constituencies. The contracted odious debt was deliberately initiated to cater to the concurring oligarchic power strategies, personal self enrichment and in compliance with the agendas of regional power brokers ( Syria, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Turkey). Rather than being spent on the assignments of post war reconstruction and integrated development, the 350 billion dollars dilapidated on staggering institutional rents ( 85/ 90 per cent ), have not yet delivered, and if so they have failed to uphold the basic standards of professional credibility. The completion of forensic auditing should help us identify the sources and venues of this monumental robbery, public mismanagement and outright violation of the rules of elementary civic boundedness and sense of the common good.
B-The Hezbollah takeover of governance with the due complicity of well crafted and micro-managed intercommunal and political coalitions, highlighted through the partnership with General Michel Aoun and his political formation, overlaps with the radius of Iranian power projections in the larger Middle East, the expanding dynamics of a self defeating Iranian imperialism undermined by an eroding national legitimacy and the demise of its foundational narratives, failed governance and systemic economic and societal breakdowns, and the hazardous outcomes of its imperial overstretch. The attempt at foreclosing governance, building stonewalling tactical alliances, and flouting the normative and operational rules of a working consociational democracy are unlikely to be managed in the long run, since they have elicited multiple oppositions, internally and externally, and are swayed by the concurring regional and international power politics, the bolting weaknesses of the Iranian regime, and the inability of Hezbollah to curb the Shiite opposition unwilling to endorse its power drive, and the illusions prompted by the fallacies of a counter-international order ( along the schemes outlined by H. Chavez and M. Ahmadinejad in the 2000 ). The intertwining dynamics of a lethal financial debacle, and the pitfalls of outsized power projections attempted by Hezbollah have proven to be non dissuasive, so far, and might be at the roots of a new wave of destructive conflicts. The statements of Hezbollah about the financial and economic crises betray the inconsistencies of its ideological worldview, economic illiteracy and the irrelevance of economics on its scale of priorities, whereas it runs a vast international underground economy, promotes the fortunes of an illegal and parallel economy, and replicates the ground rules of the predatory economics of the Iranian regime.
C- The probability of a consistent reform in Lebanon hinges upon an integrated approach whereby, the reform of political and economic governance, the overhaul of civic culture, and the delineation of developmental agendas predicated on an integrated approach based on the complementarity between the economic, social, educational and environmental variables, evolve symmetrically. The priority of financial reforms revolves around the following objectives: The recapitalization of the banking sector, the negotiated solution of the compounded debts, the recovery of the immense public heist, the reform of the banking sector in conjunction with the structural reforms of the economy mandated by the international institutions and the community of potential donor countries, the implementation of an overall plan of economic reforms congruent with the epistemological norms of the international community ( IMF, World Bank, ILO, WTO, European Bank of Development and Reconstruction,…. ), and the inevitable nexus between consolidated political stability and sustainability. The stabilization of political life, and the distancing from the disruptive political and military dynamics of an imploded Middle East, prohibitive political alliances, imaginary economic shelters, and purported segregated trade spaces advocated by Hezbollah ( Iran, Russia, Venezuela, North Korea / Syria, Iraq and Jordan ) are the preliminary conditions of a steady reformist course, and the creation of its congenial environment. Short of these prerequisites, the regressive dynamics already in place, are likely to question civil concord and compromise the chances of cumulative reforms.
The most striking feature of the systemic unraveling we are witnessing, is the brittleness of social order, its fictitious and fiduciary nature, and the centrality of social constructivism in any future attempt at recasting the matrices of statehood, governance and participatory politics. We should avoid the fallacies of “ misplaced concreteness “ and make sure to keep in sight the dialectical relationship between political and financial reforms, and the prevalence of destructive regional power politics, shaky political consensuses and their stifling role. The civic rebellion sparked last October 2019, is mandated to build a functional platform of coordination, overcome the traps of maximal aspirations and the divisiveness of ideological politics, if we were to oversee a tangible reformist course and preempt their deleterious impact on its fortunes. The actual oligarchies and ongoing power politics have already erected their defenses around the demarcation lines of their interests, regional patronages and determination to use violence and civil war threats to protect their power turfs and absconded riches. Summarily, at the end of its first centennial ( 1920-2020 ), Lebanon is experiencing the worst economic tribulations after the excruciating famine of WWI ordered by the Turkish authorities ( 1915- 1918 ) which eradicated half of the Maronite population in Mount Lebanon ( 50/ 100, 400000/ 200000 ), and left its enduring imprints on the future of the emerging polity, its internal political dynamics and geopolitical entanglements.
The decision will appease protesters who have clamored for the government to prioritize domestic concerns. But it does little to solve the nation’s financial woes.
ميمري: حكومة حزب الله ليست هي المؤهلة لإخراج لبنان من أزمته..انتقادات للحكومة وتعرية فاضحة لمرجعيتها
In Lebanon, Criticism Of New Government: A Puppet Government Controlled By Hizbullah That Won’t Extricate Country From Its Crisis
MEMRI/March 10/2020
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/84035/%d9%85%d9%8a%d9%85%d8%b1%d9%8a-%d8%ad%d9%83%d9%88%d9%85%d8%a9-%d8%ad%d8%b2%d8%a8-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%84%d9%87-%d9%84%d9%8a%d8%b3%d8%aa-%d9%87%d9%8a-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%85%d8%a4%d9%87%d9%84%d8%a9-%d9%84%d8%a5/
On February 11, 2020, Lebanon’s government, headed by Prime Minister Hassan Diab, secured a vote of confidence in parliament. The formation of the new government had followed prime minister Sa’d Al-Hariri’s resignation in response to protests in the country against regime corruption and the economic crisis, that broke out on October 17, 2019.[1]
Once tasked with forming the government, Diab, who is supported by Hizbullah and its allies, aimed to mollify the protestors and the general public who were demanding a government not reliant on existing political elements. Pledging that it would comprise independent technocrats, the government he presented included 19 ministers, all unfamiliar names. However, most of them are not experts in the areas for which they are responsible, and nearly all of them were chosen by the March 8 camp – that is, by Hizbullah and its allies.[2]
Because of this, the newly confirmed government already faces serious opposition from protestors, who feel cheated. Demonstrations outside the parliament building immediately following the government’s confirmation led to clashes with security forces.
Also critical of the new government were newspaper op-eds by public figures and columnists identified with the March 14 camp. They called on the public not to have confidence in the new government, referring to it, inter alia, as a disgraceful government and a puppet government – and not a government of independent technocrats as promised, but one dominated by Hizbullah. Some argued that it would represent Iran and the resistance axis and make it difficult to obtain aid from the U.S., Europe, and Arab countries. They also said that it would be incapable of solving Lebanon’s economic problems – which include restrictions for banks on withdrawals and overseas transfers and a public debt of some $90 billion. Since this government is neither truly independent nor reformist, they added, it will not institute real reforms, tackle the security situation, or deal with the weapons illegally possessed by Hizbullah.
Anti-government protests outside parliament immediately following the confirmation of the government (Source: Al-Nahar, Lebanon, February 11, 2020)
The following are translated articles and commentary on events surrounding the confirmation of the new Lebanese government:
Al-Nahar Columnist: “Don’t Give [This Government] Your Confidence”
In a column titled “Don’t Give [This Government] Your Confidence” in the March 14 camp-affiliated Al-Nahar daily, Akl Awit argued that Prime Minister Diab had failed to keep his promise of an independent and professional government, and said that there should be no public confidence in it:
“The new government is no different from the one that preceded it… Those who brought its leader, its members, and its paymaster [to power] do not want it to be different, professional, free, sovereign, and independent. They do not want it to rescue the country and its people from the tragic fate that has befallen them. Were the prime minister true to himself, his commitments, his promises, and his declarations, he would have appointed ministers who are independent and experts [i.e. technocrats]. There is a vast gulf separating half of the members [of this government] from professionalism. With respect to [the claim] that it is independent of the elements [that have] controlled [Lebanon in recent years], you can say this as much as you like, [but it is far from true]. Maybe one or two ministers, and maybe, just maybe, three, at most, are the exception [to this, i.e. are independent]. But the government [as a whole] is not…
“In light of [the fact that] this government and its members continue to act like they have all the time in this world and in the next, that the fundamental guidelines set by its members are pathetic… that they have broken promises and [shattered] all hopes pinned on it… I call on the free public, on those who act peacefully, on those who rise up, on the revolutionaries, on the hungry and the sick, on the unemployed and the bankrupt, on those who are lost and are about to emigrate: Do not give this government your confidence, and do not allow it popular legitimacy.”[3]
Lebanese Political Analyst: Through Fraud, The Government Remains In The Same Hands – And Reform Won’t Happen
In a similar vein, Lebanese political commentator Tony ‘Issa asserted that the government remains in the hands of the same political elements, and expressed skepticism with regard to its ability to institute reforms: “Naturally, the Europeans and others have reservations about what is happening [in connection with the makeup of this government]. This is because Diab promised to hand the government portfolios to independent technocrats, but, through fraud, they remain in the hands of the same political elements. The previous government’s budget was adopted by [this new so-called] ‘reformist government’ with no changes. Likewise, we can expect no changes to the administrative staffs whose appointments are based on political connections. If this is the case, whence will reform come?
“The fundamental guidelines of [this] government are from the same mold as the previous guidelines in all things connected to the political-security aspect. With regard to the economic aspect, [this government] used numerous slogans about reform and rescue, to be carried out within undefined periods by means of no clear mechanism or organized plan. All this gives the impression that the reason [these issues] were included in the government’s fundamental guidelines was to ward off the [public’s] rage and to deceive public opinion with promises of reform.”[4]
Lebanese Journalist: The West And The Arab Countries Will Not Send Aid To Lebanon – Because It Is Considered Part Of The Iran-Led Resistance Axis
In the London-based Al-Arab daily, Lebanese journalist Khairallah Khairallah wrote about Lebanon’s foreign relations, arguing that no one in the new government is capable of communicating with the Americans, the Europeans, or the Arabs. He wrote:
“The government of Hassan Diab and its founders do not understand that Lebanon’s problem is first and foremost political – and that no one in this government is capable of talking to the Arabs, the Europeans, or the Americans. This is because no member has [even] minimally good relations with foreign elements that have a positive influence on Lebanon’s situation…
“The Trump administration no longer wants to deal with Lebanon or to consider its domestic sentiment. This came about at the same time as the disappearance of the imaginary, or non-imaginary, line separating Hizbullah and [Lebanon’s state] institutions, first and foremost the presidency and the government…
“With respect to the Arabs, Lebanon cannot request any Arab aid as long as the Gulf residents are fully convinced that it is a Hizbullah base. The current government has no way of persuading any Gulf country with financial means that Lebanon is not part of the Iranian axis. All anyone needs to be certain of this is to hear any speech by Hizbullah secretary-general Nasrallah –and especially when the aim of his speech is to attack a country like Saudi Arabia, which does only good for Lebanon.”[5]
In another article, Khairallah wrote: “The new government formed in Lebanon headed by Hassan Diab absolutely cannot rescue anything, in light of the boiling [rage] in the street and in light of the fact that official Lebanese elements are biased towards Iran – which pressured them to form this government led by a figurehead with no credibility worth mentioning in his community…”[6]
Al-Nahar Columnist: The New Government Is Betraying The Lebanese Protests – And We Must Oppose It
In his column titled “Struggle Against the Puppet Government” in the Al-Nahar daily, Ali Hamade criticized the new government’s violent suppression of the protests and urged the public to rebel against it. He wrote: “The government is a grave stab wound to the ‘October 17 Revolution,’ that sparked [a demand] for fundamental change in the country… The rebelling Lebanese people are called upon to first of all oppose the parliament that has surrendered to… the foreign occupier [i.e. Iran]; [then] to oppose the puppet government… and the insolence of [its February 7] meeting of the ‘Supreme Defense Council’ to finalize plans for suppressing the rebels, [with the aim of] terrifying independent national public opinion and letting it know that the government has extinguished the flames of the revolution that began on October 17…
“There is no alternative but to stand up to the policing mindset that is running the country, so that these [rulers] will understand that Lebanon is not Iraq and that the disgraceful government headed by Hassan Diab has no national legitimacy… Therefore, the free people and the rebels must not allow any rest for those who have stolen the people’s dreams and seek to throw the Lebanese people into a huge prison.
“We thus call on free public opinion to return to the logic of the resistance… by taking to the streets, as part of actualizing the democratic and non-violent right to revolt against the evil reality presented by this government [that sets out] facts on the ground starting at the tip of the pyramid and radiating to its base. The Lebanese people’s dire circumstances have reached a nadir. We can no longer remain silent, and we can no longer accept this reality…
“Therefore, we say to the Lebanese people – who are seeing their dreams and hopes evaporate before their eyes, who line up [at the banks] in shame and humiliation to salvage what remains of their money, who see their honor trampled by the few who seize their assets and their rights, who see their crust of bread being taken from their mouths and the mouths of their children, and whose future is bleak… – You have no choice but to keep protesting against this illegitimate political reality and the standard of living that humiliates you and your dreams…”[7]
Al-Mustaqbal Party Official: This Government Will Find It Hard To Act Against The Resistance Or Against The Firing Of Missiles From Lebanon
Al-Mustaqbal party senior official Mustafa ‘Aloush expressed his doubts regarding the new government’s ability to tackle the country’s economic problems, fight corruption, promote reforms, and take control of the security situation in the country, and to deal with the issue of Hizbullah’s illegal weapons. He wrote: “How will the government deal with this [economic] situation in the absence of foreign aid?… If the government [manages] to stabilize [the dollar exchange rate], what rate and price [will it set]? What will inflation be, and how much will the citizens’ buying power drop… Where will they [get the money] to return to the public what they stole? Will the members of government hunt down those outside it?…
“Moving on to the less pressing problems of the day, obviously in comparison to the current situation – for example the electricity [problem]… For two decades this issue has been in the hands of the ruling group, and is today [as well], yet the electricity situation is only getting worse. We have heard no hope of salvation from the minister – who was advisor to the previous minister. Some say we must wait to see results. But the minister belongs to the previous staff that worked on this issue, and [there are still no results]. Regarding corruption, how can we expect a government to go after its own people in the government, who are for the most part agents of the rulers who appointed them to their positions, and as long as corruption is the most important means for the government and its members to maintain their power?…
“I [also] want to ask about how [the government] is handling the matter of the illegal weapons, which is the main obstacle facing the economy. The economy has dwindling investment because of the instability and the death of tourism due to the ongoing threats and shows of force against tourists in Lebanon by the weapons of the resistance… Will the resistance’s shipments be inspected [at border crossings]? Will the government know what is in the trucks crossing the border with resistance passwords? What will the government do if the Lebanese Revolutionary Guard Corps [i.e. Hizbullah] is ordered to fire missiles? How will we persuade the Americans to lift the sanctions, in light of the ongoing struggle with Iran and when the resistance in our country is an integral part of the enterprise of the resistance [axis]?
“Every reform is likely to fail because of the loss of political and security control – [all of] which is connected to [Hizbullah’s] illegal weapons. Ignoring this reality ostrich-style will not lead to tackling the centers of the disease [afflicting the country].”[8]
[1] For more on the protests, see MEMRI Special Dispatch No. 8514, Journalists In Lebanese ‘Al-Nahar’ Daily In Pointed Criticism Of Country’s Leaders: Your Corruption Has Turned Lebanon Into Hell And Is Driving Its Citizens To Suicide, January 22, 2020; MEMRI Inquiry and Analysis No. 1492, Lebanese Protests Place Hizbullah In A Bind – Part I: Hizbullah’s Hostility To The Protests And The Reasons Behind It, December 3, 2019; MEMRI Inquiry and Analysis No. 1493, Lebanese Protests Place Hizbullah In A Bind – Part II: Hizbullah’s Position On Protests Evokes Unusually Harsh Criticism Among Its Supporters, Prompts Wave Of Resignations From Pro-Hizbullah Daily ‘Al-Akhbar’, December 3, 2019;MEMRI Special Dispatch No. 8332, Lebanese Politicians, Journalists, Before The Outbreak Of The Current Protest-Wave: It Is Hizbullah That Caused The Economic Crisis In The Country, October 25, 2019.
[2] Diab’s government is identified with the March 8 camp and its main elements are Hizbullah and its allies – Amal and the Free Patriotic Movement headed by Gebran Bassil, son-in-law of President Michel ‘Aoun. The Lebanese government comprises the prime minister and 19 ministers, in this government, four ministers are from Hizbullah and Amal, six are from the Free Patriotic Movement, and two represent Druze faction leader Talal Arslan, a rival of longtime Druze leader Walid Jumblatt who is affiliated with the March 8 camp. Additionally, two ministers are from the Maronite Marada movement, headed by Suleiman Frangieh, Hizbullah ally, and one is from Al-Liqaa Al-Tashawuri, which represents the Sunni opposition to Sa’d Al-Hariri and are also supported by Hizbullah. Another minister is from the Armenian party Tashnag that joined the March 8 camp. Only three ministers in the government are politically unaffiliated, but they were appointed by Diab, who, as noted, is supported by Hizbullah.
[3] Al-Nahar (Lebanon), February 8, 2020.
[4] Al-Gumhouriyya (Lebanon), February 7, 2020.
[5] Al-Arab (London), February 9, 2020.
[6] Al-Arab (London), January 29, 2020.
[7] Al-Nahar (Lebanon), February 8, 2020.
[8] Al-Gumhouriyya (Lebanon), January 28, 2020.
Lebanon faces mayhem after defaulting on its debt
Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib/Arab News/March 10/2020
For the first time in its history, Lebanon will default on its debt. Prime Minister Hassan Diab made the announcement on Saturday, saying: “How can we pay foreign creditors when the Lebanese can’t access their deposits?” He added that reserves had reached a “danger level.” Speculation was rife that it would come to this. The problem is that Lebanon is defaulting and it is alone — the country has no backing from the international community or the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Due to the objections of Hezbollah, which sees the IMF as a tool for American domination, a possible IMF intervention was rebuffed. Meanwhile, the international community is standing firm: It will not provide any aid unless reforms are conducted. The US and its allies do not see a difference between Hezbollah and the current government.
To start with, no one knows how much the central bank has in reserves, as it lacks transparency. Officially, the country had, as at the end of last year, $31 billion in reserves while owing $67 billion to banks, meaning the reserves are negative. Diab has announced reforms, saying they will save $350 millionannually. However, this number will not really make a difference or save the economy from collapsing. Drastic reforms are needed. The Ponzi schemethat has kept the system afloat for the last three decades does not work anymore.
The government is also planning to negotiate with debtors. However, what kind of negotiations can take place if Lebanon does not have a guarantor. Without an IMF plan, it is very hard to convince debtors of reforms, especially with a country like Lebanon, which ranks 137th out of 180in terms of corruption. Now that the country is bankrupt, opening letters of credit to facilitate imports is becoming increasingly difficult, especially as Lebanon’s importsare more than five times its exports. Former Prime Minister Saad Hariri called on friendly countries to open lines of credit to Lebanon for essential goods, but his call was not answered as the international community has lost trust and patience with the corrupt and failing political elite. Last month, a visit by theIMFto offer technical advice resulted in no developments. The government did not have a plan and expected the IMF to give it a magic spell that would solve the country’s problems without formally interfering.
Lebanon’s middle class is becoming poor. The US dollar reached a record high of 2,700Lebanese pounds last week and is expected to increase further, leading to a huge increase in the price of goods. Hyperinflation will drive people on to the streets. However, this time it will be violent, as people are hungry and angry. The government of Diab is on life support, and the important question remains: What’s next? No one seems to have a plan to take Lebanon out of its crisis. Unlike Greece, Lebanon does not have anybody ready to bail it out. To add to the calamity, the current leadership is stubborn and in denial.
Hyperinflation will drive people on to the streets. However, this time it will be violent, as people are hungry and angry.
One option would be for corrupt politicians to try to buy the people, as they do at the time of elections. They could use the wealth they have accumulated from pillaging the country for the past three decades to buy people’s loyalty. This way, they could regenerate their legitimacy for a while. However, the government is unable to offer basic services. In the regional context, the stability of Lebanon is paramount, but the current political configuration cannot offer stability. A skyrocketing dollar value and an ever-shrinking dollar supply in a highly dollarized economy is a huge problem. Additionally, inflation will wipe out people’s safety net in a country where the government does not offer any real social protection.
It will be important to see what Hezbollah does. Will it act like a militia, as it has since the beginning of the protests, and seek to intimidate and use force to strangle the calls for reform, or will the situation be too much and it will stay on the sidelines? There are many issues with the reforms. The reforms will mean controlling the porous borders with Syria, the airport and the ports. Even if Hezbollah is allowed to keep its arms in the south, it will be highly restricted and this is something the group won’t accept easily. Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah has previously warned that the protests could lead to civil war. However, a civil war is not in Hezbollah’s interest, just as it is not in the interest of any other political faction in the country. Sooner or later, Hezbollah will have to accept the IMF and its restricting conditions. Until then, Lebanon is faced with gloomy prospects, and there is no official plan to be put in place to lift the country from its current plight.
*Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib is a specialist in US-Arab relations with a focus on lobbying. She holds a PhD in politics from the University of Exeter and is an affiliated scholar with the Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs at the American University of Beirut.
