Jamal Khashoggi: Syria, Russia and the Arabs: Could it get any worse/Dr. Theodore Karasik: Panorama: Russian violation of Turkish airspace and situation in Syria.

Syria, Russia and the Arabs: Could it get any worse?
Jamal Khashoggi/Al Arabiya/October 06/15

Last Wednesday, the Russians bombed Homs at noon, and the Americans bombed Aleppo in the afternoon. Both say the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) is the target, while the Syrian opposition – which published a list of the names of around 40 dead civilians – claims it is the one being bombed. Meanwhile, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad must have been following news of these bombings with a map of his homeland in front of him and a smile on his face. Thousands of defeated Arabs are toasting each other over Russian aggression against an Arab land. Things cannot get any worse, but we need to prepare for another tragedy at the hands of Assad. The Russians are cruel players at war, and do not value human rights. They burn the land and its residents just to eliminate one fighter. They did that in Afghanistan, displacing 5 million Afghans in one year. They did the same in Chechnya. If the Russians are not stopped, they will repeat the same crimes in Syria, leaving us with more displaced, dead and wounded civilians, while the only relief we can offer is more camps, caravans and another donor conference.

Saudi challenge
What is happening is a big challenge for Saudi Arabia, which will not bare an Iranian victory in Syria that would take away the beating heart of Arabism. This is not a Russian occupation, but a Russian-Iranian deal. Assad could not win this war despite the ferocity of Iran and Hezbollah. His aircraft is capable only of killing civilians with barrel-bombs. This is why he resorted to Russia. It is a partnership. It would be ignorant to believe that the Russian military presence in Syria will be at the expense of Iran. President Vladimir Putin clearly stated that Russian participation will be aerial only. They are all standing in one operation room. The first fires smart bombs and provides satellite photos, while the others move on the ground to destroy the Syrian revolution. They will continue to do so if we do not make a move. If they achieve victory, Assad will keep his presidential palace, while Iran will keep all of Syria and spreads Shiism in it, displacing whomever it wants into and out of Syria. Maybe one day we will discuss the “right of return” of Syrian refugees. Some will think I am exaggerating, but does Iranian insolence have any limits? Saudi Arabia will resist all that. I expect it will move diplomatically first to form an Arab stand rejecting Russian interference, then to establish an international stance. Then it will increase its support for the resistance.

These are dangerous grounds. The formation of an Arab stance will put to the test the sincerity of some of its allies. Egypt, for example, is enthusiastic about the Russian aggression, but no resolution can emanate from the Arab League without Egypt, and Saudi Arabia will not accept that its ally provides unprecedented support to its Russian opponent. Riyadh must point out to the Americans that this is due to their weakness. They must act to stop their dignity falling apart from Ukraine to Damascus. While Assad’s partisans in Beirut, Cairo and Tehran were celebrating an expected Russian victory in Syria, Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir was more decisive, saying “military action” was one of two options to overthrow Assad. Riyadh believes that no peace will be achieved in his presence.

Those who are not acquainted with Saudi Arabia must know that it does not resort to threats and intimidation if it cannot act on them. For example, it never threatened to destroy Israel. This is why Jubeir’s insistence on the expression “military action” means Riyadh is ready for confrontation.

Options
There are 1,000 ways to thwart the Iranian-Russian project in Syria, and Saudi Arabia will have to make a choice depending on its knowledge of the Syrian arena and its popular support there. The first step will be to protect the two most important factions targeted by the Russians: Ahrar al-Sham and the Army of Islam, whose images are being distorted to make them seem like ISIS, even though they are fighting it more than the regime. Thousands of defeated Arabs are toasting each other over Russian aggression against an Arab land. Ahrar al-Sham is being subjected to a smear campaign in Germany, where it was sent to court to be considered a terrorist organization. If such a decision is issued, it will be easier to criminalize its members throughout Europe. This will mean criminalizing the most powerful moderate Syrian faction. Saudi Arabia is carrying a heavy weight on its shoulders, but this has to be done. Iran now feels more confident in becoming a bully. The Russians are taking charge of the aerial war, while Tehran sends thousands to complete the mission on the ground. Its confidence has pushed it to venture into Yemen too. Iranian shipments of weapons, confiscated by coalition forces, are an example of that. So too are threats by Supreme leader Ali Khamenei to use force against Riyadh following the hajj pilgrim stampede. Russia too has tools of pressure, as it is a superpower that can influence the U.N. Security Council to behave negatively regarding the war in Yemen. It would be naïve to believe that Riyadh can choose between Yemen and Syria. This is not a struggle for land, or a conflict between a secular Syria and an Islamic one. It is a struggle between tyranny and freedom, and freedom will prevail. This is the real Arab liberation war, so we must win.

Panorama: Russian violation of Turkish airspace and situation in Syria
Dr. Theodore Karasik/Al Arabiya/October 06/15

Russia’s military activities, coupled with the Kremlin’s diplomatic solutions to the Syria crisis, are bringing Chinese views and actions into sharp relief. Moscow and Beijing are linked together through a number of channels, including the BRICS association, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and other institutions that illustrate a mix of political-economic unity. On Syria, China is maintaining, for now, its usual policy of patience and heart. As Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told the U.N. Security Council, the world cannot afford to stand by, but must also must not “arbitrarily interfere” in the Syrian crisis.

He emphasized the humanitarian challenge with vigor. Those comments seemed to be a message to Moscow on airstrikes and other activity. However, in the age of information warfare, comments may be interpreted in different ways, especially on Syria. The Chinese see the internationalization of what to do with the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), but also Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Throughout the Syria debacle, Beijing has supported Russia, but there is more to the Chinese policy. It also involves an expanding presence in the Mediterranean and other sea lanes. China is part of the EUNAVFOR counter-piracy mission, which is set to expire next year. In addition, a 700-strong Chinese battalion is in Sudan under an UNMISS mandate. The Chinese are involved where needed most on the regional and international stages. Down the road, Russia will need Chinese help on the Syrian transition away from Assad, through negotiation and elections, to a new government. That type of thinking was seen when Wang met with Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Moallem in New York. In that discussion, Wang said China believed the world should respect Syria’s sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity. Those comments sound like they came from the Kremlin.

Naval presence
Shady reports and rumors are fuelling the perception of China’s partnership with Russia on the latter’s military operations in Syria, especially in the maritime domain. The presence of Chinese naval ships in the Mediterranean is fuelling speculation that Beijing may be sending military personnel to Syria to reinforce the Assad regime. Zhang Junshe, a senior researcher at the PLA Naval Military Studies Research Institute, said hyper conspiracy theory reportage might have been confused over the movements of the Chinese navy’s 152nd fleet. It is headed by the Jinan guided-missile destroyer, along with the Yiyang frigate and the Qiandaohu supply ship, and has been conducting naval activities in the Mediterranean with Russia and Egypt. Zhang said after completing a four-month escort mission, the fleet began a five-month global tour from Aug. 23 that began from the Gulf of Aden, and included a passage through the Suez Canal to the Mediterranean and the Baltic Sea. The fleet has so far visited Sudan, Egypt, Denmark and Finland, after passing through the Mediterranean in late August or early September. The Chinese do have a vessel in the Syrian port of Latakia. According to a security official of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), the vessel is “just sitting” there, possibly in case Chinese diplomats or other officials in Damascus need help or evacuation out of Assad’s areas of control. Or perhaps the vessel is observing Russian actions.

Threats
The Chinese are very worried about ISIS. Beijing’s policy has remained to avoid becoming a target. Its policy in Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iraq all follow that line. Now, with Russian actions in Syria, China may well see itself on the cusp of getting involved against ISIS in new ways in the near future.

Uighurs are the key Chinese concern. In July 2014, ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi called out Chinese oppression of the Muslim Uighur minority in Xinjiang province. “Your brothers all over the world are waiting your rescue, and are anticipating your brigades,” he said. In September, ISIS taunted China in its online magazine Dabiq, featuring “the sale” of Fan Jinghui, a freelance consultant from Beijing. Reports of ISIS recruiters in Hong Kong approaching Indonesians and using Malaysia as a hub for gathering potential fighters only forces China to be more cautious but calculating. The plight of the Uighurs is not new, but what is new is disenchanted Uighurs who take up the ISIS message of violence. Caliphate Uighurs number perhaps over 1,000, each a ticking time bomb from Beijing’s point of view. That view came into sharp relief in Aug. 2015 in Bangkok, Thailand, when Uighur terrorists killed almost two-dozen people at the Hindu Erawan Shrine. Although not an outright ISIS attack, the Uighur bombing is a harbinger of things to come. With Russian actions in Syria, China may well see itself on the cusp of getting involved against ISIS in new ways in the near future. China is playing its game slowly and methodologically, using its usual practise of principals for engagement, whether diplomatic or militarily. Beijing is approaching the Russian action in Syria from a sense of being a partner, urging cooperation and strategy. The Kremlin understands Chinese foreign policy approaches very well, and Moscow and Beijing will approach each other within the following omnidirectional concept on Syria and ISIS: “You agree, I agree; you disagree, I disagree; you abstain, I abstain.” If necessary, China will perhaps see its first real display of force projection using concepts found in irregular warfare if the conditions merit such activity.