Israel warns of Iran’s ‘tricks and shticks’ ahead of deal/Sharif Nashashibi/Preparing for the fallout from Iran’s nuclear deal/World Powers Seek Breakthrough in Iran Nuclear Talks

Ya’alon on ‘bad deal’ with Iran: Israel must be prepared to defend itself
By LAHAV HARKOV/J.Post/07/13/2015 /The World Powers’ deal with Iran is a bad one, ignoring that Tehran continues to develop long-range missiles and sponsor terrorism, Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon said at the opening of a Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee meeting Monday. “Even if there are some last-minute improvements, the agreement as we understand it is bad, allowing Iran to legitimately be a nuclear threshold state, with all that implies,” Ya’alon said. The defense minister warned that the agreement could spark an arms race in the Middle East, saying that Saudi Arabian, Egyptian and Turkish officials have talked about the need to arm their countries. Ya’alon focused on the many defense issues the expected agreement ignores, calling it “full of holes.” “This agreement will not lead to the closing of nuclear site or to the destruction of one centrifuge,” he stated. “It somewhat limits the pace of uranium enrichment, but it leaves a lot of holes, like what the military can use and what kind of supervision there will be from now on.” The defense minister also pointed out that long-range missiles were not discussed. He said Iran is already capable of striking Israel and all of Europe, and that Tehran plans to develop missiles that can reach the east coast of the US. “What concerns us every day is Iran’s terrorist activity against us, through arming Hezbollah and funding Hamas and Islamic Jihad and giving them information to develop weapons, and their attempt to open a terrorist front against us in the Golan,” he said. Ya’alon said Iran is undermining other states in the region, like Yemen, where it backed the Houthis, impacting Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern states, while the talks were ongoing, but that was not mentioned, either. “After the agreement, we’ll have Iran on the nuclear threshold and continuing to sponsor terrorism. Iran is mostly concerned with when and how sanctions will be removed. When they have more money to pay for these activities, Iran will be a greater threat not only to Israel but to the whole world,” he added. Ya’alon concluded that “the bottom line is, a bad deal is coming, and after it, we will have to be prepared to defend ourselves on our own.”

 Israel warns of Iran’s ‘tricks and shticks’ ahead of deal
Attila Somfalvi/Yoav Zitun/Ynetnews/Latest Update: 07.13.15 / Israel News /Nuclear deal expected to be signed in Vienna on Monday amid Israeli concerns of ‘inconceivably dangerous’ deal led by ‘amateur’ Western negotiators. After a grueling political marathon of negotiations, Iran and the P5+1 were reportedly close to striking a historic deal to end the Iran nuclear crisis. It is slated to be signed in Vienna on Monday. Meanwhile, an Israeli security source warned against Iran’s “tricks and shticks” that he said would surely follow the “inconceivably dangerous” deal. “The West is leading problematic negotiations that will result in failure,” said the source. “They have all the tools and capabilities to lead Iran down the correct path. “Iran entered negotiations at a disadvantage, economically strangled and desperate for an agreement. Instead of pushing them further, leading to the total freeze of the nuclear program, without tricks and shticks, the West acted like amateurs and gave Iran a gift.”Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon also criticized the impending deal, calling it a “historic mistake” filled with “unprecedented concessions.” According to Ya’alon, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkey would all feel an urgent need to develop their own nuclear options as a result of the impending agreement. French media reports cited one Iranian official claiming that 99 percent of the 100-page agreement had been completed, paving the way for the foreign ministers’ signatures on Monday. According to the official, negotiators had yet to agree on the expiration date of the agreement and precise dates to end sanctions on Iran. **Moran Azulay contributed to this report.

Preparing for the fallout from Iran’s nuclear deal
Sharif Nashashibi/Al Arabiya
Monday, 13 July 2015
Whether a deal over Iran’s nuclear program is reached by the extended deadline of Monday or at a later date, the regional repercussions will be huge. An agreement would improve relations between Tehran and Western powers, particularly its arch-foe the United States, though there would still be longstanding sources of friction beyond the nuclear issue.

The saber-rattling between Iran and Israel is likely to escalate in light of the latter’s vehement opposition to the nuclear negotiations. However, the biggest regional fallout will be felt with regard to relations between Tehran and Riyadh, which are currently facing off in proxy wars to a greater extent and on more fronts than is the case with Israeli-Iranian rivalry. The escalation and widening of Saudi-Iranian rivalry in recent years may pale in comparison with what will follow a nuclear deal and Tehran’s subsequent rehabilitation A nuclear deal would entail the lifting of wide-ranging sanctions imposed on Iran, which would boost its economy and military.

This would enable it to more forcefully flex its regional muscle, particularly in the Arab states and conflicts where it is most involved: primarily Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and to a lesser extent Yemen. Tehran’s involvement could thus be prolonged and deepened. Saudi Arabia has made it clear that it will not stand idly by, with Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir reiterating just four days before the deadline for nuclear negotiations that his country “is working to confront Iran’s trouble-making activities in the region. We are determined that Iran should not have a negative intervention in the region or in Arab countries.”

Riyadh has already shown such determination recently by increasing material support for Syrian rebels – contributing to a string of battlefield gains – as well its military campaign against Iran’s allies in Yemen. Tehran in turn has become more entrenched in Iraq and Syria, and increasingly boastful about the expansion of its regional influence and of its Islamic revolution.
Escalation
However, the escalation and widening of Saudi-Iranian rivalry in recent years may pale in comparison with what will follow a nuclear deal and Tehran’s subsequent rehabilitation. In their war of words and in their actions, including increased military expenditure, both sides seem to be gearing up for such a development. Riyadh has sought to consolidate its regional influence to offset Tehran’s, which has been on the ascendance since the U.S.-led invasion and occupation of neighboring Iraq.

Saudi Arabia is combining its traditional use of soft power (diplomatic and economic) with a greater willingness – particularly under its new monarch – to resort to hard, military power. To varying extents, it can count on the support of most Arab governments (with the exceptions of Syria, Iraq and Lebanon), including those of the wealthy Gulf states, and of geo-strategically important countries such as Egypt and Jordan. This is evidenced by the speed with which Riyadh was able to put together an Arab coalition against its opponents in the Yemen conflict. In the week prior to the nuclear-negotiations deadline alone, Jubeir held talks with Jordanian officials, and Saudi King Salman met with Qatar’s emir. Riyadh’s regional outreach is likely to intensify further. Saudi policies vis-à-vis the Middle East’s conflicts, as well as efforts to form a pan-Arab military force, suggest efforts to chart a course more independent from the United States. Washington’s negotiations with Iran, its reluctance to adequately support Syrian rebels, and its cooperation with Tehran in Iraq have angered Riyadh, which has grown more vocal in its frustrations. A central Saudi concern is that a nuclear deal will soften U.S. (and more generally Western) opposition to Iran’s regional footprint. A sense of patriotism will afford Tehran domestic support for its foreign policies, particularly when framed in terms of safeguarding the country from jihadists, imperialists and other aggressors. However, it is uncertain to what extent Iranians will be willing to see their resuscitated economy used to pay for costly, long-term military ventures abroad, and to perpetually prop up foreign allies, at the expense of much-needed internal development.

World Powers Seek Breakthrough in Iran Nuclear Talks
Agence France Presse/Nanarnet/13 July/15/Iran and major powers scrambled to finally nail down an elusive nuclear accord ahead of a Monday deadline, with China calling for “no more delays” in the marathon talks. After more than two weeks of intense political haggling in Vienna aimed at ensuring Iran does not get a nuclear bomb, diplomats said an agreement was tantalizingly close. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said the time had come to wrap up the talks, now in their 17th straight day. No deal could be “perfect” but “conditions are already in place for a good agreement”, he told reporters as he arrived for discussions in the Austrian capital, speaking through an interpreter. Foreign ministers from the so-called P5+1 — the United States, Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China — were gathering “to bring the negotiation to its conclusion,” he added. “We believe that there cannot and should not be further delay.”

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said he believed there should be no further extension to the talks but he would negotiate as long as needed. “I always believe there shouldn’t be any extension but we could work as long as necessary to finish this,” Zarif said as he met Wang. Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani will address the nation about the nuclear talks on state television on Monday night, a media official told AFP in Tehran. The official IRNA news agency said Rouhani would speak when the nuclear talks have concluded, but it did not give a time. The six major powers want Iran to scale down its atomic activities in return for an easing of crippling sanctions.

They have already missed several deadlines in the highly complex discussions in Vienna, but diplomats were hopeful that this time would be different. “No one is thinking of another extension. Everyone working hard to get to yes today, but political will still required,” Iranian diplomat Alireza Miryousefi said on Twitter. A source close to Iranian negotiators told AFP there were still “some important issues” to be resolved. There had been optimism that a deal would be clinched over the weekend, but finalizing a framework accord struck in April has proved difficult, with talks stumbling on the exact timing of sanctions relief and Iran’s desire to have a U.N. conventional arms embargo lifted. Such an accord, if it can be agreed, approved and implemented properly — which is also no small challenge — would draw a line under 13 years of failed diplomacy and threats of military action.

 In return Iran will be granted staggered relief from painful sanctions, although the six powers insist on the option of reimposing the restrictions if Tehran breaches the agreement. The current diplomatic effort dates back to Rouhani coming to power in 2013.
He sought a rapprochement with the West and an end to his country’s diplomatic and economic isolation.The prospect of a thawing of relations between Iran and the United States unsettles many in the Middle East, however, not least Tehran’s rivals Saudi Arabia and other Gulf monarchies. Israel, widely assumed to have nuclear weapons itself, is also deeply concerned, complaining that the proposed deal will fail to stop its arch foe getting the bomb.

“We are heading toward a bad deal, and in the period after it we will of course have to continue preparing to protect ourselves on our own,” Israeli Defense Minister Moshe Yaalon said on Monday. “It naturally contains implications on other states which perceive this situation as a threat, neighboring states that are talking about their need to be armed, which could start a regional nuclear armament race,” he said. US Secretary of State John Kerry huddled with the rest of the P5+1 for fresh talks on Monday morning. When asked whether the deadline might be pushed back again, he did not reply.

Speaking in Brussels, French President Francois Hollande said the negotiations were picking up pace. “We are not necessarily very far” from an agreement but that “does not mean we are there yet,” he said. The deal, if it can be sealed, will however prove a “hard sell” in the U.S. Congress, top Republican Mitch McConnell said in an interview broadcast Sunday. But Kelsey Davenport, Arms Control Association analyst, said she does not expect the Republicans to be able to scupper what would be President Barack Obama’s biggest foreign policy achievement. “If the administration presents a good deal that blocks Iran’s pathways to nuclear weapons and puts in place intrusive monitoring it should garner enough support from Congress to ensure implementation,” Davenport told AFP.