A Bundle Of English Reports, News and Editorials For October 31-November 01/2019 Addressing the On Going Mass Demonstrations & Sit In-ins In Iranian Occupied Lebanon in its 15th Day
Compiled By: Elias Bejjani
October 31/2019-November 01/2019
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on October 31-November 01/2019
Lebanon’s President Seeks to Appease Protesters by Pledging Cabinet of Technocrats
President Aoun calls for merit-based Lebanese government and shift away from sectarian system
AMCD Supports the Protestors in Lebanon
Dr.Walid Phares: Lebanese protests are against Hezbollah
Presidency Says Aoun Working on ‘Facilitating’ Parliamentary Consultations
Khamenei Accuses US, Allies of Backing ‘Turmoil’ in Lebanon, Iraq
Report: Hariri’s Resignation Was ‘No Secret’ to Political Parties
France Urges Lebanese Authorities to Accelerate Govt. Formation
Lebanon Protesters Fight on Amid Political Deadlock
Paralyzed by Protests, Lebanon’s Fiscal Crisis Worsens
Authorities Struggle to Reopen Roads as Lebanon Sit-Ins, Marches Continue
Protests Return to Lebanon Day after Hariri’s Resignation
Israeli military says attempt to down one of its drones over Lebanon failed
Hizbullah Fires Missile at Israeli Drone over Nabatiyeh
US, Gulf allies sanction Hezbollah-Iran network
Mustaqbal Slams ‘Militia-Style’ Attacks on Protesters, Urges Supporters Not to Block Roads
Hizbullah Bloc Says Hariri Resignation Wastes Reform Time
Geagea Says ‘Revolution’ is ‘Purely Lebanese’, System Change Not on Table
Lebanon struggles to reopen roads as sit-ins continue
Lebanon’s President Seeks to Appease Protesters by Pledging Cabinet of Technocrats
Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 31 October, 2019
Lebanese President Michel Aoun tried to appease protesters on Thursday by saying that the new government’s ministers must be chosen based on competence and not political affiliations. Aoun made a televised address after Prime Minister Saad Hariri resigned on Tuesday following two weeks of anti-government protests. Hariri handed the first victory for the demonstrators who are seeking the removal of a political class seen as corrupt, incompetent and sectarian. The president formally asked Hariri on Wednesday to continue in a caretaker role until a new cabinet is formed. The new government should meet the aspirations of the Lebanese people, Aoun said Thursday. Describing sectarianism as a “destructive disease,” he called for the establishment of a modern civil state and said that “putting an end to confessionlism would salvage Lebanon.” Aoun reiterated that the people should pressure their MPs to approve draft-laws that would fight corruption. “It is the responsibility of all sides to overcome this crisis,” he added. Aoun also called for an independent judiciary in the second address to the nation since the mass protests erupted Oct. 17. Banks, schools and many businesses remained shuttered Thursday. But Lebanon’s banking association said banks would reopen on Friday to meet “urgent” needs. It asked customers to keep “the interests of the country” in mind. “The association hopes that all bank customers understand the current situation and respond positively to serve their interests and the interests of the country during this exceptional period,” a statement from the Association of Lebanese Banks said. It said the banks would open to meet urgent needs such as salary payments.
President Aoun calls for merit-based Lebanese government and shift away from sectarian system
Arab News/October 31/2019
The president’s apparent concessions are greeted with skepticism by the protesters
Hezbollah parliamentary bloc says Hariri resignation wastes time
BEIRUT: Lebanon’s president Thursday said the country’s next cabinet should include ministers picked on skills, not political affiliation, seemingly endorsing a demand by a two-week-old protest movement for a technocratic government. Michel Aoun’s speech came as Lebanese protesters tried to block reopened roads and prevent their unprecedented non-sectarian push for radical reform from petering out.It followed the resignation of Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s government on Tuesday which had been met with cheers from crowds seeking the removal of a political class seen as corrupt, incompetent and sectarian.
“Ministers should be selected based on their qualifications and experience, not their political loyalties,” Aoun said in a televised speech on the third anniversary of his presidency, pledging also to combat corruption and enact serious reforms. But his speech was met with disdain by demonstrators in central Beirut who, in response to his words, chanted the popular refrain of the 2011 Arab uprisings: ‘The people demand the fall of the regime.’ Nihmat Badreddine, an activist, said the president’s promises were “good in theory.”
“But there is no mechanism for implementation… and there is no deadline” she said, expressing fears of a stalled process.
Sparked on Oct.17 by a proposed tax on free calls made through messaging apps such as WhatsApp, the protests have morphed into a cross-sectarian street mobilization against an entire political class that has remained largely unchanged since the end of the country’s 1975-1990 civil war.
Some schools have reopened this week and banks were due to reopen on Friday, as the protests piled more economic pressure on a country that has been sliding toward debt default in recent months. Key members of the outgoing government, including the Shiite Hezbollah movement and the Christian president’s Free Patriotic Movement have warned repeatedly against the chaos a government resignation could cause. “Lebanon is at a dangerous cross roads, especially with regards to the economy,” Aoun said on Thursday. “So there is a dire need for a harmonious government that can be efficient without getting tangled in political disputes.”
Aoun has asked Hariri’s government to stay on in a caretaker capacity until a new one can be formed, but Lebanon has entered a phase of acute political uncertainty, even by its own dysfunctional standards. With a power-sharing system organized along communal and sectarian lines, the allocation of ministerial posts can typically take months, a delay Lebanon’s donors say the debt-saddled country can ill afford. French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said it was “essential for Lebanon’s future that a new government be formed rapidly to carry out the reforms that the country needs.”
The new government would need to “address the legitimate aspirations expressed by Lebanese and take the decisions indispensable to the country’s economic recovery,” he said. Consultations for the formation of a new government have not yet started, such is the rift between Hariri and his coalition rivals, according to a political source involved in discussions.
The source said that consultations are scheduled to begin on Monday.Aoun was thought to be insisting on keeping his son-in-law Gebran Bassil, who is Lebanon’s foreign minister and one of the most reviled figures among protesters, in government. But “a technocratic government is a possibility,” political analyst Amal Saad-Ghorayeb said. “It would have to ensure a short-term stabilization of the economy, which has spiralled out of control these past weeks, while ensuring economic reforms pass quickly, otherwise mass protests will erupt once again,” she added. The fall of the government under pressure from the street had led to an easing of the lockdown that has crippled the country of six million inhabitants. While some life returned to Beirut and other cities this week, die-hard protesters were reluctant to lose one of the few forms of leverage they have to press demands that go far beyond the cabinet’s resignation.
“Giving up is out of the question,” said Tarek Badoun, 38, one of a group of demonstrators blocking the main flyover in central Beirut.
The mass mobilization, which has seen hundreds of thousands protest nationwide, has so far been largely bloodless, despite sporadic scuffles with counter-demonstrators from the established political parties. “We have decided to stay on the streets because we don’t feel like the government is serious about speeding up the formation of a cabinet,” said Mohammad, 39, who was demonstrating near the northern city of Tripoli. Earlier, Hezbollah’s parliamentary bloc said Hariri’s resignation would waste time available to enact reforms which are widely seen as necessary to steer Lebanon out of an economic crisis.
In a televised statement read by one of its MPs, the bloc said parliamentary consultations should take their “natural course” to start the process of forming a new government. “The bloc called on the (central bank) to take all measures and steps that would lead to guaranteeing avoiding the monetary situation in the country spiraling out of control, especially at this delicate and difficult time,” it said.
AMCD Supports the Protestors in Lebanon
WASHINGTON, DC, USA, October 31, 2019
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/80069/amcd-supports-the-protestors-in-lebanon-dr-walid-phares-lebanese-protests-are-against-hezbollah/
The American Mideast Coalition for Democracy supports the Lebanese demonstrators fully and shares in their hopes and demands for a democratic, sovereign state free from corruption, domestic militias, and foreign domination.
“The rampant corruption throughout Lebanon has facilitated Hezbollah’s control of the Lebanese government and military,” said AMCD co-chair, Tom Harb.
“This corruption combined with Western sanctions against Hezbollah is now plunging the economy into collapse.
As a result, the poverty rate in the country is skyrocketing. We receive reports from the suffering people daily.”
“The resignation of PM Hariri and his cabinet is welcome news,” continued AMCD co-chair, John Hajjar.
“We urge the Lebanese Armed Forces to continue to keep the peace and to put down any violence forcefully, including the attacks on peaceful protesters by vicious Hezbollah thugs.
Furthermore, we call on General Joseph Aoun, head of the Lebanese armed forces, to protect the people as they demonstrate for their just cause.
And we demand full accountability for all those who have served in government and any related entities or parties who have looted the country for years.”
“We encourage all friendly nations to stand in support of the Lebanese people and their God-given rights to live in a free, prosperous nation that abides by the rule of law,” added AMCD vice-chair, Hossein Khorram.
“Hezbollah should be disarmed and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard expelled from the country so that the people can finally be free from their corrupt domination,” continued Mr. Harb.
“We fear that Hezbollah may exploit the current crisis to tighten its grip on Lebanon and suppress the will of the people.
We call on the US, France and other Western nations to take any and all steps to prevent this from happening.”
Rebecca Bynum
The American Mideast Coalition for Democracy
Dr.Walid Phares: Lebanese protests are against Hezbollah
MEM/October 31/2019
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/80069/amcd-supports-the-protestors-in-lebanon-dr-walid-phares-lebanese-protests-are-against-hezbollah/
A former advisor of US President Donald Trump has claimed that the people of Lebanon are protesting against Hezbollah, Quds Press reported on Monday. Walid Phares was Trump’s advisor for Middle East affairs during his election campaign. Phares revealed that certain Lebanese activists had already contacted the Americans and others in the Middle East regarding the protests. Calling on Trump to help the Lebanese get rid of Hezbollah, he pointed out that two million Lebanese protested in Beirut and other cities against the “corruption and threats of terrorist” Hezbollah. “They are looking at you as a leader of the free world and their voice for justice. They want to liberate Lebanon one more time.” The US citizen of Lebanese origin said that the “real” protesters are the normal citizens. “They are more courageous and clearer than those organised ‘bourgeoises’ who refuse to recognise until now that this intifada [uprising] is aimed at Hezbollah.” He pointed out that the activists have called for international protection for the people on the streets who are subject to Hezbollah’s “violence and terrorism”.
Presidency Says Aoun Working on ‘Facilitating’ Parliamentary Consultations
Naharnet/October 31/2019
President Michel Aoun is delaying the binding parliamentary consultations for choosing a new premier in order to “facilitate” them, the Presidency said on Thursday, after protesters on the streets slammed perceived procrastination. “President Michel Aoun is carrying out the necessary efforts ahead of setting a date for the binding parliamentary consultations… in order to facilitate these consultations,” the Presidency said in a statement. Aoun is scheduled to make an address to the nation at 8:00 pm to make three years since his election as president.
Khamenei Accuses US, Allies of Backing ‘Turmoil’ in Lebanon, Iraq
London – Tehran – Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 31 October, 2019
Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei has contradicted himself by saying that the demands of protesters in Iraq and Lebanon are rightful while accusing the US and its allies of being behind the unrest. The Americans and Western intelligence services “backed by the money” of some countries in the region “are causing turmoil… to destroy security”, said Khamenei on Wednesday. “The people of Iraq and Lebanon have some demands that are rightful, but they should know these demands can only be realised within the legal frameworks,” he said in remarks aired on state television. “The enemy wants to disrupt the legal framework. When in a country there is no legal framework and a vacuum is created, no positive action can be taken,” he was quoted by his official website as telling graduating army cadets. In an apparent warning, Khamenei praised Iran’s crackdown against street protests at home that started in December 2017 and lasted till mid January 2018. At the time, he said Iran’s foreign enemies were seeking to overthrow the country’s regime. The editor-in-chief of the daily Kayhan, believed to reflect Khamenei’s views, on Wednesday renewed his call on Iran-backed militias mainly Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) to storm the US and Saudi embassies in Baghdad. He said the two missions were responsible for the recent turmoil in Iraq. Earlier this month, the newspaper urged in an article the PMF to close “the house of spying,” in reference to measures needed to be taken similar to the storming of the US embassy in Tehran in 1979, which cut diplomatic relations between the US and Iran.
Report: Hariri’s Resignation Was ‘No Secret’ to Political Parties
Naharnet/October 31/2019
Political contacts between officials have reportedly turned to a halt mainly after the resignation of PM Saad Hariri, which came amid nationwide protests against the political class, al-Joumhouria daily reported on Thursday. Center House circles, close to Hariri, told the daily that contacts between officials were severed. They rejected reports that the resignation was infused by foreign pressures. “It was made in Lebanon,” they said, adding that all political parties were in the picture of his move which was deliberated for some time beforehand. “No need to act surprised,” they said. The sources who spoke on condition of anonymity said that Hariri did not ask to continue as PM nor did he ask to be renamed, “but he would not hesitate to assume responsibility if he was renamed as Premier.”Moreover, on Wednesday evening, a video was shared on social media showing Hariri addressing a crowd of supporters in the Center House, accusing figures that he did not name of “taking advantage, stealing from me and in the end attempt to get a step ahead of me.”In another video, Hariri said he has a “list” of names about some parties who “stole and took advantage” of his position as PM. “Each one of them will be held accountable, God willing,” he concluded.
France Urges Lebanese Authorities to Accelerate Govt. Formation
Naharnet/October 31/2019
France’s Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian urged Lebanese authorities to expedite the formation of the government as he defended the Lebanese’s right for peaceful demonstrations. “Following the resignation of PM Saad Hariri, it is essential for the future of Lebanon to accelerate the formation of a government that can proceed with the necessary reforms the country needs,” said Le Drian on his Twitter account. “The Lebanese’s right for peaceful demonstrations must be preserved,” he stressed. On Tuesday, Le Drian stated that the resignation of Lebanon’s government in response to nearly two weeks of countrywide protests has made the crisis there “even more serious.” Hariri earlier had announced he was submitting the resignation of his government, bowing to rising public pressure. A nationwide protest movement has gripped Lebanon for almost two weeks, calling for an overhaul of a political class viewed as incompetent and corrupt.
Lebanon Protesters Fight on Amid Political Deadlock
Agence France Presse//Naharnet/October 31/2019
Lebanese protesters faced off with security forces Thursday as they tried to block reopened roads and prevent their unprecedented non-sectarian push for radical reform from petering out. The resignation of Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s government on Tuesday had been met with cheers from the crowds seeking the removal of a political class seen as corrupt, incompetent and sectarian. The fall of the government under pressure from the street had led to an easing of the lockdown that has crippled the country of six million inhabitants. While some life returned to the streets of Beirut and other cities this week, die-hard protesters were reluctant to lose one of the few forms of leverage they have to press demands that go far beyond the cabinet’s resignation.”Giving up is out of the question,” said Tarek Badoun, 38, one of a group of demonstrators blocking the main flyover in central Beirut. The tug-of-war between demonstrators seeking to block roads and security forces under orders to reopen the country for business repeated itself on Thursday. The mass mobilisation, which has seen hundreds of thousands protest nationwide, has so far been largely bloodless, despite sporadic scuffles with counter-demonstrators from the established political parties. Some schools have reopened this week and banks were due to reopen on Friday, as the protests piled more economic pressure on a country that has been sliding towards default in recent months.
– Technocrats –
“The political class is banking on the protests running out of steam, that much is clear,” said Karim Bitar, a professor of international relations in Paris and Beirut. “It hopes the Lebanese, choked by economic hardship, will resume their daily lives,” he said. President Michel Aoun has asked Hariri’s government to stay on in a caretaker capacity until a new one can be formed but Lebanon has entered a phase of acute political uncertainty, even by its own dysfunctional standards. With a power-sharing system organised along communal and sectarian lines, the allocation of ministerial posts can typically take months, a delay Lebanon’s donors say the debt-ridden country can ill afford. French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said it was “essential for Lebanon’s future that a new government be formed rapidly to carry out the reforms that the country needs”. The new government would need to “address the legitimate aspirations expressed by Lebanese and take the decisions indispensable to the country’s economic recovery,” he said.
France is a major donor and retains significant influence in its former colony. According to press reports, consultations for the formation of a new government are barely under way, such is the rift between Hariri and his coalition rivals. Among the possible scenarios is one which would see Hariri return at the helm of revamped line-up that includes technocrats, one of the demands of the protesters. “A technocratic government is a possibility,” political analyst Amal Saad-Ghorayeb said. “It would have to ensure a short-term stabilisation of the economy which has spiralled out of control these past weeks, while ensuring economic reforms pass quickly otherwise mass protests will erupt once again,” she said. The Hezbollah movement headed by Hassan Nasrallah was a key player in the outgoing government and had warned repeatedly against the chaos a government resignation could cause. The Shiite movement is allied to the Christian movement of President Michel Aoun, who had also counselled against a mass resignation. He is thought to be insisting on keeping his son-in-law Gebran Bassil, who is Lebanon’s foreign minister and one of the most reviled figures among protesters, in government. Aoun, who was elected president exactly three years ago, was expected to give a speech later Thursday.
Paralyzed by Protests, Lebanon’s Fiscal Crisis Worsens
Associated Press/Naharnet/October 31/2019
Lebanese banks have been closed for the last two weeks as the government grapples with mass demonstrations that have paralyzed the country, but an even greater crisis may set in when they reopen Friday. There are concerns the government may not have enough foreign reserves to defend its flagging currency, service its massive debt, and maintain the import of vital goods, particularly if there is a run on the banks. Lebanon, one of the most heavily indebted countries in the world, already was dealing with a severe fiscal crisis before the protests began, one rooted in years of heavy borrowing and expensive patronage networks run by entrenched political parties.
A proposed tax on the WhatsApp messenger service, coming on the heels of a deeply unpopular austerity package, sent hundreds of thousands of people into the streets starting on Oct. 17 in the largest protests the country has seen in more than a decade.
Banks have remained closed since then, as protesters have packed public squares and blocked major thoroughfares, bringing the country to a halt in hopes of pressuring the government to resign. The army reopened roads on Wednesday as the protesters stood down in the wake of their first victory, the resignation of Prime Minister Saad Hariri the night before. The Association of Banks in Lebanon said banks would reopen Friday for the first time since the protests began. The bank closures have taken a toll on ordinary Lebanese, preventing employers from distributing salaries and making it increasingly difficult to acquire U.S. dollars, which have long been widely used as a second currency. Small businesses that need foreign currency to import products have had to do without or turn to a newly emerged black market. Fawaz, the owner of a shop selling men’s suits in Beirut’s Hamra shopping district, said he hasn’t had a customer since the demonstrations began.”I had already sent an advance payment for goods from Italy, but I told them to keep it, to hold onto it for another three months until the situation is clearer,” he said, asking that his last name not be used so as not to attract negative attention to his business. “I’m buying expensive goods from Italy and the people here can’t afford it,” he said. “Before everything else, they have to pay rent and buy food.”Few blame the protesters, who have united Lebanese from the country’s many religious sects and factions against the political class that has ruled since the 1975-1990 civil war, and which is widely seen as having tanked the economy.
“The cost the political elite have imposed on the Lebanese population is in billions of dollars of public theft and mismanagement of the economy,” said Sami Atallah, an economist who heads the Lebanese Center for Policy Studies.
“So to me, whatever the cost of stopping the country from functioning over the last 12 days is peanuts compared to the mismanagement and the theft that the political parties have inflicted on us.” The sectarian political system put in place after the civil war distributes political power and high offices to Lebanon’s various religious sects. While it has kept the country from slipping back into armed conflict, it has transformed parties into political machines that maintain loyalty by distributing government jobs, contracts and other favors to supporters. The result is a bloated and costly public sector that struggles to provide even basic services like electricity, water and trash collection.
Lebanon’s national debt currently stands at $86 billion, or more than 150% of GDP, much of it tied to high-interest loans that impose additional obligations on the government. Meanwhile, inflows of foreign currency have dropped in recent years, in part because of the instability in neighboring Syria.
Even if there is no run on the banks Friday, experts say the political vacuum that is sure to follow the government’s resignation is likely to delay enacting necessary reforms, worsening the situation. Forming a government typically involves weeks or even months of political wrangling.
Atallah says a lack of transparency makes it impossible to know how much foreign reserves the central bank has and whether it can meet its obligations.
“The numbers are murky,” he said. “We know some things about the foreign reserves, but we don’t know how much of it is usable, that can actually be used to defend the exchange rate.”
The World Bank estimated that the Lebanese central bank had $39.7 billion in foreign reserves at the end of last year, saying it was equivalent to about 13½ months of imports of goods and services. The tiny country imports vital goods like wheat, oil and medicine, which requires considerable foreign exchange.
Banks may be forced to impose capital controls in order to hold onto their dollar reserves, which could deepen the uncertainty and inflict even more damage on the economy. The Lebanese pound is already said to be trading at up to 2,000 to the dollar on the black market, a devaluation of up to 30% from the official rate.
Ghazi Wazni, another economist, says people began converting pounds to dollars and spiriting them out of the country long before the protests, estimating that some $5 billion has been transferred abroad since the start of the year. He expects the banks to impose some form of controls to prevent a run on deposits.
On Tuesday, the Fitch ratings agency downgraded Byblos Bank and Bank Audi, two top lenders. It said Lebanese authorities would have a “high propensity” to support both banks, but might be unable to do so. More than two weeks before the protests began, the Moody’s ratings agency put the government “under review for downgrade” from its Caa1 issuer rating. It said the decision reflects the “recent significant tightening in external financing conditions and the reversal in the bank deposit inflows that are essential in enabling Lebanon to meet the government’s financing needs.”It said the government’s increased reliance on reserves to meet payments on foreign currency bonds “risks destabilizing (its) ability to sustain the currency peg and ensure financial stability over the longer term.”
Authorities Struggle to Reopen Roads as Lebanon Sit-Ins, Marches Continue
Associated Press/Naharnet/October 31/2019
Lebanese security forces were still struggling to open some roads Thursday as protesters continued their civil disobedience campaign in support of nationwide anti-government demonstrations. Protesters meanwhile staged a rally outside the central bank in Beirut’s Hamra area before marching to the Ring highway and Martyrs Square in downtown Beirut – areas which have witnessed attacks on protesters by supporters of Hizbullah and the AMAL Movement. Banks, schools and many businesses have been shuttered since mass protests erupted Oct. 17. The protests were ignited by a proposed tax on the WhatsApp messenger service but rapidly escalated into calls for the resignation of the government and sweeping political change. Schools had been set to reopen for the first time in two weeks, but late Wednesday many parents received text messages saying their schools would remain closed for security reasons. The state-run National News Agency reported that schools in some areas would remain closed until further notice. Banks were set to reopen Friday, amid concerns the severe fiscal crisis that preceded the protests could worsen. Government offices and businesses meanwhile remained shuttered across northern Lebanon after overnight clashes in which the army used tear gas to disperse protesters, wounding seven of them. President Michel Aoun, one of the main targets of the protesters’ anger, was set to deliver a speech later in the day. Prime Minister Saad Hariri resigned Tuesday, handing the demonstrators their first victory but plunging the country into greater uncertainty. It typically takes weeks or even months to form a government.
“They are trying to divide the street, but the street has one clear demand: We want to breathe clean air and stop the theft,” said Rania, a protester in Beirut who declined to give her last name for security reasons. France called on Lebanon to “quickly” form a new government. “Everything must be done to avoid provocations and violence and preserve the citizens’ right to demonstrate peacefully,” Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said in a statement. “It is crucial for Lebanon’s future that a new government is quickly formed that is able to lead reforms the country needs.” France, Lebanon’s former colonial ruler, has close ties to Hariri and other Lebanese leaders. The protesters stood down Wednesday as the army cleared most major thoroughfares, but they packed public squares that night and returned to the streets a day later, insisting their revolution was far from over.
Walid Rihani, a university professor, said the protesters want a government of technocrats and early parliamentary elections.
“We are back on the streets to remind (them) that the formation of a new government should not take more than 48 hours,” he said. The protesters have been sitting or lying in the roads, forcing security forces to drag them away by their arms and legs. In some places, security forces have removed piles of burning tires, concrete blocks and other physical roadblocks. There have been scuffles but no reports of serious clashes or injuries. On Tuesday, hundreds of supporters of Hizbullah and the allied AMAL Movement rampaged through the main protest camp, smashing chairs and setting fire to tents. Security forces dispersed them with tear gas and the protesters returned a couple hours later, repairing the tents and resuming their sit-in. The government is dominated by allies of the Iran-backed Hizbullah, which has accused unnamed foreign powers of exploiting the protests to undermine it.
The protesters have called for the overthrow of the political class that has dominated the country since its 1975-1990 civil war, and which includes several former warlords and their relatives. The sectarian power-sharing arrangement that ended the war gave birth to political machines that have drained the treasury and eroded public services. Three decades after the end of the war, Lebanon still experiences frequent power outages, the water supply is unreliable and trash often goes uncollected. The country is meanwhile $86 billion in debt, accounting for 150% of its GDP. Rania, the protester, said the demonstrators are determined to stay in the streets as long as it takes. “We don’t want what happened in 14 days to go to the dust bin,” she said. “That is why we are here, to keep the pressure on the government, and we will stay here. We won’t leave until you leave.”
Protests Return to Lebanon Day after Hariri’s Resignation
Beirut – Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 31 October, 2019
Protests renewed in Lebanon on Wednesday evening despite the calm the country witnessed a day after the resignation of Prime Minister Saad Hariri. A number of Lebanese protesters were seen demonstrating and blocking some roads across the country. At the so-called Ring bridge in Beirut, protesters cut one way of the road and said they demand that political parties agree on a cabinet of technocrats able to implement economic reforms. Other protesters blocked the highway linking Tripoli to the Lebanese capital in the north with metal barriers, saying that their protests should continue until all their demands are met. Despite a decision by Caretaker Education Minister Akram Chehayeb that schools reopen on Thursday, Lebanon’s National News Agency said many schools in Beirut and areas surrounding it decided late Wednesday to remain closed the next day. Separately, the Free Patriotic Movement, which is headed by caretaker Lebanese Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil, rejected that Hariri heads a nonpartisan government. “The FPM supports applying the same norms when forming the next cabinet,” Antoine Constantine, a senior adviser to Bassil, told Asharq Al-Awsat on Wednesday.
Therefore, he said, if a decision is taken to form a nonpartisan government, the same norms should be applied on the Prime Minister. This means the FPM would not accept that Hariri heads a cabinet of technocrats. The Progressive Socialist Party (PSP) of Walid Jumblatt said it would support Hariri for being renamed prime minister if the circumstances allow. PSP media officer Rami Rayyes told Asharq Al-Awsat that it was still very early to say whether the party would join the new government. For its part, the Lebanese Forces said it does not object to Hariri being tasked in forming the new cabinet.
“Currently, Lebanon needs a technocrat government, free of any political representation, capable of salvaging the economic and financial situation and to secure local and foreign support,” LF resigned minister Richard Kouyumjian told Asharq Al-Awsat on Wednesday.
Israeli military says attempt to down one of its drones over Lebanon failed
Reuters/October/2019
JERUSALEM: Israel’s military said an anti-aircraft missile was fired from Lebanon at one of its drones on Thursday but the aircraft was not hit in the rare launch. A military spokesman made the statement on Twitter after Lebanon’s Al-Mayadeen TV reported an Israeli drone was brought down near the town of Nabatiyeh in southern Lebanon. Neither side immediately identified who in Lebanon might have carried out the anti-aircraft fire. But an Israeli security source said Hezbollah was responsible. Lebanon’s biggest militia, Iran-backed Hezbollah had vowed in August to shoot down Israeli drones in Lebanese airspace. That followed a suspected Israeli drone strike on a Hezbollah-linked facility in Beirut. Tensions have risen between them as US sanctions squeeze Iran, which Israel accuses of trying to set up precision-missile plants for Hezbollah in Lebanon. Hezbollah has denied having such sites.
Hizbullah Fires Missile at Israeli Drone over Nabatiyeh
Associated Press/Naharnet/Agence France Presse/October 31/2019
Hizbullah on Thursday said its fighters used the “appropriate weapons” to confront an Israeli drone over south Lebanon, “forcing it to leave Lebanese airspace.”The Israeli army had earlier acknowledged that one of its drones came under fire in Lebanese airspace. In a statement, the Israeli army said an anti-aircraft missile was “launched over Lebanese territory” toward the drone, but the aircraft was not hit. Lebanon’s state-run National News Agency said a large explosion was heard near the southern town of Nabatiyeh and that Israeli spy aircraft were flying overhead at the time. The area is a stronghold of Hizbullah. Israel is technically at war with Lebanon and in recent weeks tensions spiked after two drones packed with explosives targeted Hizbullah’s stronghold in Beirut’s southern suburbs in August. Earlier this month, the Lebanese Army accused Israel of having sent a reconnaissance drone over the same area. Hizbullah vowed to take down Israeli drones overflying Lebanon following the August incident, and on September 9 claimed it had downed and seized one. The Israeli army confirmed that one of its devices “fell” in Lebanon, but it has not commented on the August 25 incident.
US, Gulf allies sanction Hezbollah-Iran network
Annahar Staff/October 31/2019
The move is seen as an attempt to further tighten controls on both’s group finances. BEIRUT: The U.S and six Gulf allies have announced new sanctions on four members of Iranian-backed Lebanese group Hezbollah and 25 entities associated with Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps.
The move is seen as an attempt to further tighten controls on both’s group finances. The sanctions were set by the Riyadh-based Terrorist Financing Targeting Center, which was founded two years ago, which includes Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates as well as the United States. The sanctions targeted a number of companies supporting the supporting Basij Resistance Force, a subordinate group of the Revolutionary Guard, that the Treasury said are used “to oppress domestic opposition with brutal displays of violence” and supply fighters to regional conflicts.
US Treasury Secretary vows more economic sanctions on Iran. Among the 25 companies were Iranian Bank Mellat and mining and other manufacturing and investment firms that allegedly support the Basij. Four of those listed were individuals coordinating Hezbollah’s operations in Iraq, the U.S Treasury said.
All 25 companies have previously been named in U.S Treasury sanctions announced in 2018. “The TFTC’s coordinated disruption of the financial networks used by the Iranian regime to fund terrorism is a powerful demonstration of Gulf unity,” said US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin in a statement.
“This action demonstrates the unified position of the Gulf nations and the United States that Iran will not be allowed to escalate its malign activity in the region,” said Mnuchin.
Mustaqbal Slams ‘Militia-Style’ Attacks on Protesters, Urges Supporters Not to Block Roads
Naharnet/October 31/2019
Al-Mustaqbal Movement’s political bureau on Thursday hailed the “peaceful” nature of the “popular uprising” despite what it called “militia-style attempts to harm it, derail it from its patriotic course and sectarianize it,” in reference to Hizbullah and AMAL Movement’s attacks on protesters.
The politburo, which convened under caretaker PM Saad Hariri, emphasized “the patriotic identity of the popular protest movement in all regions,” saying it has strongly succeeded in “overcoming sectarian alignments and the barriers of blind loyalties.”And lauding “the popular reactions that accompanied PM Saad Hariri’s resignation and the popular embracement around him in the capital Beirut and several towns and cities in the North, Bekaa and South,” the bureau urged supporters in all regions to heed Hariri’s calls and refrain from “provocation attempts and the blocking of roads.”
Hizbullah Bloc Says Hariri Resignation Wastes Reform Time
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 31/2019
Hizbullah’s parliamentary bloc on Thursday criticized Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s resignation, saying it would “contribute to wasting the time available to implement reforms,” complicating efforts to resolve the crisis. In a statement issued after its weekly meeting, the Loyalty to Resistance bloc added that security forces must protect people’s right to express themselves as well as “their right to move freely in all areas of the country.”It also condemned “American interferences in the affairs of countries of this region,” accusing the U.S. of manipulating the peoples of the region to undermine their national unity.
Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah is meanwhile scheduled to make a televised address Friday at 2:30 pm.
Geagea Says ‘Revolution’ is ‘Purely Lebanese’, System Change Not on Table
Naharnet/October 31/2019
Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea has stressed that “the revolution that has erupted in Lebanon was, is still, and will remain a purely Lebanese revolution.”“It started spontaneously and voluntarily and it is about to produce some leaders from among its ranks,” Geagea said in an interview with Emirati newspaper al-Ittihad. He added: “The government’s resignation is not in itself a goal but rather a first step towards rectifying the current course in Lebanon, which has led to the very difficult economic, financial and social situations that we are witnessing, and which have pushed people to take to the streets.”
“The only step that can correct this course at the moment is the formation of a government that would be totally different than its predecessors,” Geagea went on to say. “The issue of changing the Lebanese (political) system is not on the table at the moment as much as the issue is about resolving the economic, financial and social crises,” the LF leader added. He also called on security and judicial authorities to seek the arrest of anyone involved in attacking protesters.
Lebanon struggles to reopen roads as sit-ins continue
Associated Press/October 31/2019
The protesters have called for the overthrow of the political class that has dominated the country since its 1975-1990 civil war, and which includes several former warlords and their relatives.
BEIRUT: Lebanese security forces were still struggling to open some roads Thursday as protesters continued their civil disobedience campaign in support of nationwide anti-government demonstrations.
Banks, schools and many businesses have been shuttered since mass protests erupted Oct. 17. The protests were ignited by a proposed tax on the WhatsApp messenger service but rapidly escalated into calls for the resignation of the government and sweeping political change.
Schools had been set to reopen for the first time in two weeks, but late Wednesday many parents received text messages saying their schools would remain closed for security reasons. The state-run National News Agency reported that schools in some areas would remain closed until further notice.
Banks were set to reopen Friday, amid concerns the severe fiscal crisis that preceded the protests could worsen.
Protesters name and shame those who caused mayhem at Martyr’s Square
Government offices and businesses meanwhile remained shuttered across northern Lebanon after overnight clashes in which the army used tear gas to disperse protesters, wounding seven of them. President Michel Aoun, one of the main targets of the protesters’ anger, was set to deliver a speech later in the day. Prime Minister Saad Hariri resigned Tuesday, handing the demonstrators their first victory but plunging the country into greater uncertainty. It typically takes weeks or even months to form a government. “They are trying to divide the street, but the street has one clear demand: We want to breathe clean air and stop the theft,” said Rania, a protester in Beirut who declined to give her last name for security reasons.
France called on Lebanon to “quickly” form a new government.
“Everything must be done to avoid provocations and violence and preserve the citizens’ right to demonstrate peacefully,” Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said in a statement. “It is crucial for Lebanon’s future that a new government is quickly formed that is able to lead reforms the country needs.”
France, Lebanon’s former colonial ruler, has close ties to Hariri and other Lebanese leaders. The protesters stood down Wednesday as the army cleared most major thoroughfares, but they packed public squares that night and returned to the streets a day later, insisting their revolution was far from over.
Walid Rihani, a university professor, said the protesters want a government of technocrats and early parliamentary elections. “We are back on the streets to remind (them) that the formation of a new government should not take more than 48 hours,” he said.
The protesters have been sitting or lying in the roads, forcing security forces to drag them away by their arms and legs. In some places, security forces have removed piles of burning tires, concrete blocks and other physical roadblocks. There have been scuffles but no reports of serious clashes or injuries.
On Tuesday, hundreds of supporters of the militant Hezbollah group and the allied Shiite Amal party rampaged through the main protest camp, smashing chairs and setting fire to tents. Security forces dispersed them with tear gas and the protesters returned a couple hours later, repairing the tents and resuming their sit-in. The government is dominated by allies of the Iran-backed Hezbollah, which has accused unnamed foreign powers of exploiting the protests to undermine it.
A senior member of Hezbollah’s parliamentary bloc criticized Hariri’s resignation, saying it would “contribute to wasting the time available to implement reforms,” complicating efforts to resolve the crisis. Ali Mekdad said security forces must protect people’s right to express themselves as well as “their right to move freely in all areas of the country.”He said the bloc condemns “American interventions in the affairs of countries of this region” and accused the U.S. of manipulating the peoples of the region to undermine their national unity.
The protesters have called for the overthrow of the political class that has dominated the country since its 1975-1990 civil war, and which includes several former warlords and their relatives. The sectarian power-sharing arrangement that ended the war gave birth to political machines that have drained the treasury and eroded public services. Three decades after the end of the war, Lebanon still experiences frequent power outages, the water supply is unreliable and trash often goes uncollected. The country is meanwhile $86 billion in debt, accounting for 150% of its GDP.
Rania, the protester, said the demonstrators are determined to stay in the streets as long as it takes. “We don’t want what happened in 14 days to go to the dust bin,” she said. “That is why we are here, to keep the pressure on the government, and we will stay here. We won’t leave until you leave.”
Titles For The Latest Lebanese LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on October 31-November 01/2019
Lebanon is a basket case run by a terror group: don’t fund it/Tony Badran/Al Arabyia/Thursday, 31 October 2019
Lebanon’s plunge into civil warfare shakes Iran, Hizballah as Mid East powerhouses/DEBKAfile/October 31/2019
Lebanon’s protesters turn on their leaders, breaking taboos/Reuters/Israel Hayom Staff/October 31/2019
Iran’s Model: Smash the Protests in Lebanon and Iraq/Seth Frantzman, JPOST//October 31/2019
The Nasrallah — Bassil master plan ambush/Nayla el Khoury/October 31/2019
Iran’s Theory on Events in Iraq, Lebanon/Abdulrahman Al-Rashed/Asharq Al Awsat/October 31/2019
Ordinary citizens have turned against Iranian proxies/Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/October 31/2019
Song helps keep a lid on Lebanon’s factional differences/Tala Jarjour/Arab News/October 31/2019
Lebanon is a basket case run by a terror group: don’t fund it
Tony Badran/Al Arabyia/Thursday, 31 October 2019
After two weeks of popular protests in Lebanon against the country’s corrupt political class, Lebanese prime minister Saad Hariri has handed his resignation. While some see this development as a victory for the protesters, such assessments miss the mark. The same political barons will now consult to form a new government, a process in which Iran’s arm in Lebanon, Hezbollah, has final say. Far from signaling a change in the system, the episode will have marked its regeneration.
Lebanon’s serious economic crisis, meanwhile, will still be there. Hariri’s gambit is to return as the head of a new government, in partnership with Hezbollah, present a plan for some reforms, and hope for a bailout from international donors. For the United States, this is not a desirable outcome. The Trump administration should carry on with its sanctions policy while continuing to oppose a bailout for Beirut. Insofar as the new government will be formed in partnership with Hezbollah, bailing out such a government means bailing out Hezbollah.
Whatever happens in Beirut now, the protests have offered a good opportunity to assess the American policy debate on Lebanon, and what lessons the US can draw from it moving forward.
Prior to the outbreak of protests, the near-consensual view among Lebanon watchers was that the country’s stability was paramount. Analysts and activists therefore were adamant that the US must handle Lebanon with kid gloves. This view decried any policy of cutting off aid to Lebanon or of harsh sanctions which could undermine the Lebanese banking sector, which is the backbone of the country’s economy. The criticism grew louder after the United States designated the Jammal Trust Bank in August: push any farther, the warning went, and chaos could ensue.
Proponents of this view argue that tough US sanctions, aimed at squeezing Hezbollah, are misguided and ultimately self-defeating. If Lebanon’s economy broke under US pressure, they argued, then the country would become a failed state. According to them, Hezbollah would benefit from this breakdown, with a broken economy and financially battered society signaling the end of any domestic opposition to Hezbollah.
This approach is misguided.
The current protests, which have included varied criticism of Hezbollah, only came about due to impending economic and financial collapse. It is unlikely that they would have surfaced had the system been floated yet again, for instance, through the injection of capital by well meaning but misguided Western powers or Gulf Arab states, which in previous crises, had made large deposits in Lebanon’s Central Bank. More to the point, such an investment in the survival of the existing political-economic order would be an investment in the Hezbollah-dominated status quo. Hezbollah, the most powerful actor in Lebanon, had orchestrated the formation of the previous government, installed its ally as president, imposed the electoral law of its choice, which handed its coalition the majority in parliament, and it directly influences government agencies. It will similarly be the decisive force in the formation of any new government. It is no coincidence that the person who has spoken most forcefully in defense of the status quo during the two weeks of protests, while issuing directives to the government, is Hezbollah chief, Hassan Nasrallah — the real head of state.
To be sure, the popular protests were not an uprising against Hezbollah per se. They were against the entire political class, of which Hezbollah is the head. However, this new popular street action was discomfiting to the organization. Especially disconcerting was the sight of Lebanese Shia participating in the protests, and denouncing the political class and Hezbollah — regardless of how mixed the references to the group may be. For instance, some protesters made a point of expressing their agreement with Hezbollah when it comes to enmity to Israel, or have pointedly avoided discussing the group’s armed status. Others made an appeal to Nasrallah asking him to join them and back their demands, thereby drawing a subtle distinction between him and the rest of the political class.
Still, unpredictable and uncontrolled popular mobilization among the Shia was not something Hezbollah wanted to see. Before Hariri’s resignation, the party was trying to figure out how to reassert its authority. Rhetorically, it attempted to coopt the protesters’ demands for reform, but without much success. At the same time, Hezbollah wielded the weapon of intimidation, both rhetorically in Nasrallah’s threatening speeches, as well as on the streets, through groups of thugs attacking protesters, with the most violent such attack taking place in downtown Beirut shortly before Hariri handed his resignation. Aside from Beirut, the group cracked down hard on Shia areas to neutralize those regions and cut them off from the other parts of Lebanon’s sectarian geography.
Now that Hariri has resigned, albeit still serving in a caretaker capacity, what happens next is an open question. The protesters had rightly dismissed Hariri’s proposed plan for reforms. Will they now accept it, and whatever government reshuffle Hezbollah and Hariri agree to with the other leaders, assuming it concludes anytime soon? Likewise, will the European donors of the CEDRE conference for Lebanon play along with Hariri’s gambit and release funds, whenever the new government is formed?
If not, will the protests pick up pace again? Lebanese banks, which had been closed since the protests began, reportedly will reopen this Friday. How that plays out and what impact it will have on the value of the of the Lebanese Pound is unclear. On the day of Hariri’s resignation, Fitch Ratings cut the rating of Lebanon’s two top lenders, Bank Audi and Bank Byblos because of heightened liquidity risks. Meanwhile, the government remains unable to attract capital to finance its deficit. Lebanon’s rot runs deep.
There is a longstanding conceit in Washington and in Europe that Lebanon must be “saved” — an impulse undiminished by the fact the country is dominated by Hezbollah, and serves as a hub for its operations and criminal enterprise. However, a basket case run by a terror group cannot be treated like a normal state. For the United States, the conclusion ought to be clear: the claims that Washington should back off its sanctions policy lest Lebanon break, that instability would only benefit Hezbollah, and that the US should continue instead to invest in Lebanon’s “state institutions,” are deluded.
*Tony Badran is a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. He tweets @AcrossTheBay.
Lebanon’s plunge into civil warfare shakes Iran, Hizballah as Mid East powerhouses
DEBKAfile/October 31/2019
The Hizballah “special forces” battling Lebanese protesters are bound to swap their sticks for live ammo as Lebanon plunges into regime breakup amid a crumbling economy. Saad Hariri’s resignation as prime minister on Tuesday, Oct. 29, did not of itself greatly impact the declining political situation in Beirut – not only because he was not a strong leader, but because the sustained protest across the country had already cast Lebanon into three major power groupings in which he had no place:
DEBKAfile outlines those groupings:
1-The ruling caste led by President Michel Aoun and kin who are standing aloof from the turbulence on the streets.
2-The protesters who have managed to sustain the momentum of their demonstrations into a third week, while also preserving their non-secular national unity of purpose – hitherto unheard of in divided Lebanon – in their fight to be rid of a corrupt ruling administration. This could throw the country into chaos or end in each group reverting to its ethnical-religious roots for civil war.
3-Hizballah, which is watching its power bases in central government fall apart. While sending his “special forces” to break up the street demonstrations by force, Hizballah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah made the fatal mistake, maybe out of panic, of lining up with the central government targeted by the protest movement. This gave credence to the demonstrators’ demand to remove Hizballah from any new national ruling administration resulting tomorrow from their struggle.
It may be taken for granted that Lebanon’s various religious and ethnic groups and factions have reacted to the burgeoning power of the street by busily topping up their stores of weapons, ready to set up the lines for defending their communities. The elements of civil war are therefore already being put in place.
Here, Hizballah has the advantage – a paramilitary armed force unmatched by any of its rivals. This Shiite group commands 25,000 men under arms, of whom 6,000 spent six years on the battlefields of Syria, and an arsenal provided by Iran of some 130,000 assorted rockets. No rival group has the slightest chance of prevailing over Nasrallah’s army.
Lebanon’s protesters turn on their leaders, breaking taboos
Reuters/Israel Hayom Staff/October 31/2019
As protests in Lebanon over the dire economic situation and political corruption gain momentum, demonstrators’ irreverence toward senior figures who have long commanded respect shatters social traditions.
Lebanon’s protesters turn on their leaders, breaking taboos
Demonstrators wave Lebanese national flags during ongoing anti-government protests at a highway in Jal el-Dib | Photo: Reuters /Alkis Konstantinidis. In the protests sweeping Lebanon, nothing is sacred. Political leaders, who a few weeks ago enjoyed the loyal support of core followers despite worsening economic conditions, are now the target of many of those people’s ire. That show of irreverence toward senior figures who have long commanded respect has broken taboos, setting these demonstrations apart from previous waves of dissent. Saad al-Hariri stepped down as prime minister on Tuesday in the face of mass protests fueled by resentment against the ruling elite, whom people blame for the dire state of the economy. The son-in-law of President Michel Aoun, Gebran Bassil, who is also foreign minister, has become a figure of ridicule among many on the streets of the capital Beirut.
Hezbollah, the heavily armed Shi’ite group widely recognized as the most powerful force in the country, has not been spared. Chants against its leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah would have been unthinkable last month. Now they are common. A man walks past a torn poster of Lebanon’s Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri in Tripoli, Lebanon
In Nabatiyeh, a mainly Shiite town in the south of the country, protesters have set their sights on Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, one of Lebanon’s most powerful politicians whose Amal Movement dominates the area. “I have come down to protest to bring down Berri who is a symbol of corruption,” said Koussay Charara, a Shi’ite teacher who was one of the thousands of people occupying the town square and surrounding streets. When hundreds of protesters chanted against Berri in one of the town’s main streets, residents say they were attacked by groups of baton-wielding mobs believed to be supporters of Amal and its ally Hezbollah.
At least eight people were hurt, some of whom were hospitalized.
In other places in Nabatiyeh and elsewhere in the south, posters of Berri that adorned government buildings were damaged by angry demonstrators. The politician himself has sided with protesters, telling MPs from his party last week that the crowds had achieved some of the changes that Amal itself had been demanding for decades. A source within Amal said the tens of thousands of people taking to the streets had made legitimate demands for greater transparency, accountability and action against corruption. “The Amal movement and its leader were not surprised by the social explosion that took place,” he said.
That explosion is pitting people once aligned in a single faction against each other, adding to the sense of chaos in Lebanese towns and cities.
In Nabatiyeh, those backing Berri chanted their support.
“With our blood and lives we offer ourselves as a sacrifice for you Nabih,” they shouted. Demonstrators stand on a bridge decorated with a national flag during an anti-government protest along a highway in Jal el-Dib, Lebanon. New posters appeared of the smiling politician, accompanied by the words “We are With You”. Some Amal and Hezbollah supporters wearing black clothes and carrying sticks and pipes attacked and destroyed the anti-government protest camp in Beirut, believing the protesters were tarnishing their leader Nasrallah. It was the most serious strife in the capital since 2008, when Hezbollah fighters seized control in a brief eruption of armed conflict with Lebanese adversaries loyal to Hariri and his allies. Analysts are taking particular note of dissent in the south of Lebanon, because of the political dominance long enjoyed there by Amal and Hezbollah. “There are more daring voices in the south. Demonstrations were breaking the previous taboos in politics,” said Mohanad Hage Ali of the Carnegie Middle East Center.
The north has not been spared either.
In the mostly Sunni Muslim city of Tripoli, one of Lebanon’s poorest, protesters turned on their leaders by burning tyres near a villa owned by former Sunni prime minister Najib Mikati. “You are one of them!” they chanted, referring to the political elite they despise.
Ali Omar, a Sunni university teacher, said that a brief walk around Tripoli was more than enough proof that parliamentarians and Sunni leaders had done nothing for the city over the years. “Go look in the city and see the unemployment rate, look at the electricity … go to the social security offices, look at the roads with their potholes, at the oppression.”Tripoli has seen some of the biggest, liveliest demonstrations of the past two weeks. People have gathered daily in the city square, chanting and dancing deep into the night. Omar said people were sick of spending their lives asking for favors or begging officials for their basic rights. “Where are all these taxes going? Into their bank accounts,” he said. “For 30 years we’ve been screaming … that half the youth are unemployed. What do we have to do for you to hear us?”
Iran’s Model: Smash the Protests in Lebanon and Iraq
Seth Frantzman, JPOST//October 31/2019
You cannot protest in the Middle East. That has become clear in Iraq, as more than 200 people have been murdered by snipers and security forces. On Tuesday, Hezbollah and supporters of the Amal Movement Party attacked a peaceful protest in Beirut, scattering soldiers and civilians and destroying their tents. Iran and its allies are concerned that protests will challenge its attempts to slowly consume Lebanon and Iraq. Any mass mobilization of young people or anyone who wants to dissent must be crushed. In Iraq, it is being crushed with bullets and tear gas canisters purposely fired at people’s heads.
In Lebanon, in front of the world’s media where Hezbollah tries to pretend it is a normal political party “defending” Lebanon, it is crushed differently. But in the end, Hezbollah, the “resistance,” is only good at bullying average people and silencing them, just as it silenced former prime minister Rafic Hariri with a car bomb in 2005. Today, Rafic’s son, Saad, is set to resign as prime minister. It has been more than 14 years since his father was murdered and the rage from the murder helped push Syria to leave Lebanon and momentarily left Hezbollah stunned.
Iran is concerned that protests will challenge its attempts to slowly consume Lebanon and Iraq.
But Hezbollah clawed its way back. It launched a war on Israel in 2006 to try to gain legitimacy and to preserve its arsenal. Then, it involved itself in the Syrian Civil War in 2012, sending its fighters there. It hijacked the parliament and the presidency, forcing its candidate through. Even though it has only 13 seats in parliament, it is allied with Amal’s 17 parliamentarians and the Free Patriotic Movement, giving it strength.
It showed its strength on Tuesday after a week of protests had left Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah wondering what to do. Nasrallah needs to pose as if he is resisting Israel, not as if he is a stagnating oligarch thirsty for power in Lebanon and seeking to wrap Hezbollah’s tentacles around the country. So when young people came to the streets and inspired Lebanon in the last week, those people had to be stopped, lest they take away the crown of sectarianism that Hezbollah wears. Human chains and people doing nice things in Beirut, things not involving showing off rifles and missiles and talking of martyrdom, the way Hezbollah does in its rallies, were looked on with suspicion by Hezbollah.
Nasrallah has warned of “strife” and Hezbollah hints of “foreign interference,” the conspiracies borrowed from pro-Iranian parties in Iraq. Nasrallah is a close ally of Iraq’s Kata’ib Hezbollah and Harakat Hezbollah, and Qais Khazali of Asaib Ahl al-Haq and Hadi al-Amiri of the Badr Organization, all of them similar to Hezbollah in Iraq. Khazali even toured Hezbollahstan in southern Lebanon to look into Israel and say that Iraqi Shi’ite militias will fight alongside Hezbollah. Since Tuesday morning, tensions boiled over between Hezbollah, Amal and the protesters in Beirut. Tents were attacked and security forces “unable” to stop the attackers. In reality, the security forces could but they know their place. When Hezbollah needs to show its muscle, it will, and the army or others will back down. After all, no one wants another civil war. Attacks on the protest tents were caught on video in Beirut. It was an organized mob attempt to stifle the protest. It is a reminder of the 2008 clashes in Lebanon between the Future Party and Hezbollah, which also led to Hezbollah entering west Beirut and showing its ability to project power. This is the Iranian model, one perfected in suppressing protests in December 2018 and in 2009.
An Iraqi protestor lies injured after clashes with Iranian-backed security forces earlier this month. Nasrallah had prepared for this moment from October 25. That was the same day that Iraqis went back to the streets to protest, often attacking pro-Iranian party offices. In Iraq, some 200 people have been killed. In Lebanon, Nasrallah flexed his muscles a bit on October 25 when some clashes and images of Hezbollah members parading in vehicles were shown. He accused the protests of being supported by outside powers, including the US and Gulf countries. Nasrallah even made sure to include a Lebanese flag in his broadcast to show that he cares about Lebanon and not just Hezbollah and Iran.
So far, Hezbollah’s tactic was to send goons to attack the protesters who pretend to be locals. They are reticent at a full confrontation with security forces in areas like Riad al-Solh square. Now all eyes turn to Hariri and, of course, what comes next. But Hariri knows what happens if he does anything too aggressive or confrontational. He’ll end up like his father. He’ll end up like Samir Kassir, Pierre Gemayel Jr., Kamal Jumblatt and all the rest who have been assassinated over the years in Lebanon.
*Seth Frantzman, a Middle East Forum writing fellow, is the author of After ISIS: America, Iran and the Struggle for the Middle East (2019), op-ed editor of The Jerusalem Post, and founder of the Middle East Center for Reporting & Analysis.
The Nasrallah — Bassil master plan ambush.
Nayla el Khoury/October 31/2019
*This is my personal opinion, based on my political analysis.
A 7 hour meeting between Nasrallah and Bassil to plan the speedy ticket for the latter to replace General Aoun as President of the Lebanese Republic within weeks.
Few days after that very long mastermind meeting, the plan starts by mobilizing the streets (Hezbollah & FPM) towards protests against the current economic situation and shifts towards the Central Bank and its financial strategies, attacking the governor Riad Salameh and getting him to resign/ be replaced.
Bassil was then supposed to go to Syria, meet Assad and bring back the “dollar” that was exported there through business deals and refugees repatriation plan that would positively shake the economic situation.
Once back, the Bassil visit would cause a political drama inside the government thus the resignation of many parties starting by the Lebanese Forces ministers.
The ministers would be soon replaced by more FPM ministers thus creating a unified government that would actually let this coalition work.
Few days after, the President would present his resignation for not being apt and healthy enough to lead the country and would be replaced by Gebran Bassil (having covered the majority of the parliament with Hariri who would stay at the top of the government)
Little did they know that an orchestrated street mobilization would actually turn into a real revolution.
Thinking well is wise, planning well is wiser, knowing your people is wisest and best of all — and fortunately for Lebanon they didn’t.
On October 17, 2019 — right after that Whatsapp propaganda was diffused the protests started in all-well controlled Hezbollah regions.
What was supposed to be a stage-managed manifestation turned within hours into organic protests…
It all started with Hezbollah — communist covered partisans that hit the streets towards the central bank and the FPM partisans who headed to Jal el Dib & Zouk.
We still can all hear them on TVs saying: “yes, I participated the first couple of days but then it changed” — even Nasrallah said it in his speech.
Protestors (actually fed up with the economic situation) started heading towards Riad Al Solh, Martyr’s square… and soon roads were starting to get blocked all over the country.
Whether you like it or not, you gotta owe it to Samir Geagea for being the first opportunist to ambush the plan: the Lebanese forces partisans were instructed to completely block roads for days on Jal el Dib, Zouk, Ghazir, Okaibeh… and the rest followed naturally.
The protests soon went out of control because it was filled with real people, non-politically controlled, demanding their basic rights,…
After years of oppression, freedom of speech repression, disastrous economic situation and corruption extravaganza; the Lebanese have had it and finally took control of the streets.
In all of their public appearances, the politicians were all focusing on a putting a face to the person/party orchestrating all of this — fortunately for all of us that was impossible.
The turnout of events left the political class in complete panic and baffle. Their first public appearances were very confident (remember Bassil’s & Nasrallah’s first speeches) and they actually thought they would still be able to keep up with their plan.
Bassil’s devilish mind (apologies for the term devilish but you’ll soon know why) even orchestrated the President’s speech video editing.
Remember, Claudine Aoun — the President daughter owns an advertising agency that has created the most beautiful ads over the years — would she let her father, the General Aoun, the President of the Lebanese Republic appear in such a ridiculous degrading way?
Another tool used by Bassil to build up his case: President Aoun is no longer competent and can not lead this country.
Few minutes after the President’s speech, both Claudine & Mireille post ambiguous tweets and Instagram posts… were they trying to tell us something? Chamel Roukoz resigned from the coalition. Making sense now?
The revolution was a real earthquake that shook them all of. Two Nasrallah speeches in 10 days, and the third one tomorrow .Bassil’s complete silence. Complete absence.
Finally, knockout comes from the person that was supposed to cover it all up and provide the international cover: Saad Hariri who was supposed to stay at the top of that government under pressure of corruption files brought to his desk by Bassil & Nasrallah. Same applies to Berri.
Hariri resigns and puts the whole plan in flames…
Bottom line, “من حفر حفرةً لأخيه وقع فيها”. Karma did what it had to, and the Lebanese people finally woke up and spoke their word.
Knowing our political class, they are already planning the next devilish plan.
I just hope we’ll still be united to face them, all of them… cause only us can bring them down. Only us. The Free. The Real. The non-Controlled.
Reference: https://middleeasttransparent.com/ar/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A5%D9%86%D9%82%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%A8-%D9%83%D9%8A%D9%81-%D8%AE%D8%B7%D8%B7-%D9%86%D8%B5%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%84%D9%87-%D9%84%D9%88%D8%B6%D8%B9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%8A%D8%AF-%D8%B9%D9%84/
Iran’s Theory on Events in Iraq, Lebanon
Abdulrahman Al-Rashed/Asharq Al Awsat/October 31/2019
It is not difficult to realize to what extent the Iranian regime has become unpopular in Iraq and Lebanon. This has nothing to do with Al Arabiya TV or the hashtags of an electronic army, as claimed by Iranian regime officials. In Iraq, there is neither internet nor social media. Iraq’s government has blacked out the internet to please the Iranians, who think that waves of incitement are coming from cyberspace. Yet the uprising is alive and continuing.
Tehran claims that the millions of protesters who have flooded the streets in Iraqi and Lebanese cities in the past two weeks have been stirred by Saudi Arabia and Israel. Iran wants to close its ears to the protesters as it has caused their poverty, militia dominance in their countries and the failure of their governments. The truth is that the accusations match reality.
All armed militias in Iraq are affiliated with Iran or its allies. Hezbollah in Lebanon is stronger than the national army and is affiliated with Iran. Most of the world’s governments have been forced to refrain from dealing with Iraq and Lebanon because of Iran’s influence there.
Saudi Arabia supported Lebanon’s currency by depositing funds in its central bank, while Iran caused depreciation due to Hezbollah’s domination of state institutions. These are well-known facts, and people do not need TV channels or hashtags to point them to the source of their misery.
In Iraq, the Iranian project relied on the seizure of state institutions: Parliament, political parties and the armed forces, which were forced to incorporate Iran’s militias. So the situation worsened and people rose up in Iraq, not as Sunnis against Shiites, nor as one party against another.
The uprising was not led by the remnants of the Baath Party, it did not raise the black flag of Daesh, and the Americans show no interest in supporting it. The Iraqi uprising is purely peaceful and patriotic, despite attempts by Iranian media to describe it as foreign-driven. Its spectrum is broad and its demands refute their accusations.
Peaceful protests have taken place in Baghdad, Basra, Karbala, Najaf, and other parts of Iraq. Most of these governorates have a Shiite majority raising demands that everyone supports. They demand an end to corruption, an improvement in the government’s performance, and the elimination of armed militias and Iran’s influence.
They call for the independence of Iraq and its identity. Iran threatens to demolish everything over the heads of 30 million Iraqis if they stand in the way of its project to govern and control the country.
In Lebanon, the movement has similar features. The protests are against corruption, the political mafia and the government’s sectarianism. The massive protests have not only taken place in Beirut, but also Sunni Tripoli and Shiite Nabatieh and Baalbek.
Christian protesters have demanded the removal of corrupt Christian ministers, Sunnis were the first to demand the resignation of Prime Minister Saad Hariri, and many Shiite clerics expressed their rejection of Hezbollah.
The poor economic situation has taxed people’s patience and made them break their silence. We know that, in terms of weapons, the balance of power is not on the protesters’ side, but their resolve, determination, and massive public support will bring about change — or at least their message has been received.
Ordinary citizens have turned against Iranian proxies
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/October 31/2019
One of the core aims of the 1979 Iranian Revolution was to ensure the Islamic Republic’s influence across the Middle East by exportingits ideals and principles beyond Iran’s borders. In fact, the theocratic establishment incorporated this critical mission into its constitution as the preamble, which states: “The mission of the constitution is to create conditions conducive to the development of man in accordance with the noble and universal values of (Shiite) Islam.” It adds that the Iranian constitution “provides the necessary basis for ensuring the continuation of the revolution at home and abroad.”
To achieve this, the Iranian leaders began building alliances with Shiite communities in other nations. At first, Tehran projecteditself as an ally that was coming to the aid of those communities and helping to improve their living standards and political rights. But the Islamic Republic’s aims were not to provide social welfare programs to the ordinary people in the long term; rather it wanted to create and strengthen armed proxies that would serve its parochial and geopolitical interests.
For example, in Lebanon, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its elite Quds Force transformedHezbollah into one of Iran’s most important and powerful proxies by providing financial, military, intelligence, logistical and advisory assistance. Even Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, has confirmed that his group receives monetary and arms support from the Iranian government. He saidin a speech in 2016: “We are open about the fact that Hezbollah’s budget, its income, its expenses, everything it eats and drinks, its weapons and rockets, come from the Islamic Republic of Iran.”
In Iraq, instead of improving the lives of the ordinary people in Shiite communities, Iran invested in creating a conglomerate of militias known as the Popular Mobilization Forces. These proxies and armed groups not only serve the interests of the Iranian regime over those of the Iraqi people, but have also created conflict by engagingin various crimes against civilians.
Now, after almost four decades, it seems that Shiite communities in several countries have become disillusioned with the ideals of the Islamic Republic. For instance, in Lebanon, the latest protests have unexpectedly spread to Hezbollah strongholds in the south of the country and in Beqaa. The protesters have even attackedthe offices of Shiite deputies such as Mohammad Raad, president of the Hezbollah parliamentary group, and Hani Kobeissi and Yassine Jaber of the Amal party.
Astonishingly, Hezbollah — which has generally projected itself to be on the side of the Lebanese people, always prepared to come to the ordinary people’s aid and opposed to the government — has been attempting to quashthe protests. In fact, Nasrallah has sidedwith the government by declaring that he is opposed to any Cabinet members resigning. The Hezbollah leader said in a televised speech: “If this government resigns, we won’t have a new one for a year or two.” Hezbollah has significant control over Lebanon’s current Cabinet, which is why Nasrallah added: “Let this government continue but with a new spirit and new way of working and let it learn its lessons from the last two days of popular outburst.”
The important fact about the protests in Lebanon is that the Lebanese people were not differentiating between the various sectarian political groups when they shouted: “The government is corrupt, the sectarian leaders are corrupt, all members of Parliament are thieves — thieves, thieves, thieves.” People even named almost every senior Lebanese politician, chanting“Thieves, thieves… All of them, and Nasrallah is one of them.”
It seems that Shiite communities in several countries have become disillusioned with the ideals of the Islamic Republic.
Similarly, in Iraq, the latest protests have eruptedmainly in Shiite provinces.
The cross-sectarian character of the protests and widespread discontent with the leaders in Lebanon and Iraq — across the political and religious spectrums — highlights the Shiite communities’ frustrations and disaffectedness with the Iranian regime and its proxies.
The structure and nature of proxies generally reflect the system that sponsors them. If the sponsor, in this case the theocratic establishment of Iran, is filled with widespread corruption and crimes, its proxies will be too. And, just like the Iranian regime, Tehran’s proxies have become skilled at exploiting religion and using sectarianism as a tool to gain power and further their parochial, religious and political ambitions.
*Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian-American political scientist. He is a leading expert on Iran and US foreign policy, a businessman and president of the International American Council. Twitter: @Dr_Rafizadeh
Disclaimer: Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not necessarily reflect Arab News’ point-of-view
Song helps keep a lid on Lebanon’s factional differences
Tala Jarjour/Arab News/October 31/2019
Historians are yet to find a retrospective name for the current decade. Those with an eye on the Middle East will probably choose a label that references massive popular movements. After the turn of events in countries such as Syria and Yemen, even in Egypt and to some extent in Tunisia, where the spark of protest emerged, hopeful terms that are normally associated with positive outcomes have slowly faded out of common use. This shift of language began when the Syrian tragedy ensued and bled across regional and transnational borders. Yet words such as “spring” and “revolution” are slowly finding their way back into the Middle Eastern lexicon of popular movements thanks to Lebanon’s decision to take to the streets.
Those of us old enough to remember the dark years of internal conflict in the small Levantine state will recall its people’s knack for transforming intense precarity into entertainment. The ongoing massive street protests are a strong reminder of that creative spirit. By taking to the streets in their masses, the Lebanese people are showing resilience alongside fragility: An uneasy contradiction that, to this observer at least, is aptly expressed in music. It is little surprise that protesters throughout the country are using song. Indeed, chants of all kinds have accompanied protest demonstrations for as long as we can remember. In that sense, Lebanon is no different from other nation states or, for that matter, from fellow Arab countries whose populations have flocked to the public square in largely spontaneous waves, instigating irreversible changes, since 2010.
Within the wide brush stroke of similarity, each Arab (and other Middle Eastern) country maintains its proper set of regional and local circumstances. Thinking about other countries’ protest songs deserves more space than this column allows. So here I will take a look at what makes Lebanon different, at least in terms of how its demonstrators have used song over the past week or two.
For starters, Lebanon has a recent and, to a great extent, ongoing relationship with national tensions. Anxieties over social purpose, political allegiance, national integrity, as well as individual and collective dignity, stack on top of ethnic, social and religious diversity. These layers of difference are all too clear in a country that has been keen to preserve a minimal state of peaceful existence against internal and external odds. Since the civil war officially ended in the early 1990s, otherwise peripheral skirmishes have repeatedly evoked ghosts of deadly strife. The balance has been precarious, and emotions continue to run high.
Music, or song — to be specific to the Lebanese case — has been a crucial means for maintaining that balance. The power of song remains a unique way in which Lebanon, in all its tides and factions, keeps a safe lid on flammable rubbings.
In this sphere, the Lebanese singer Fairuz, along with her voice and songs, represents a cherished constant. In the ongoing wave of protests, the living legend seems to still unite a fractioned Lebanon. Decades-old songs that gained special meaning during the long years of war are now sung in unison by protesters. Fairuz herself, an icon of the country and its designated “Ambassadress to the Stars,” maintains a meta-national aura, despite her silence over ongoing events, which no one appears to contest.
As Lebanon is forming a new sense of purpose, it has a readily available store of musical material for the occasion.
Satisfaction over the silence of prominent artists is hardly the case for other singers, especially those whose voices have been coined with nationalistic sentiment. Songs by Julia Boutros, Majida Al-Roumi, Ziad Rahbani and Marcel Khalife — all of whose careers spanned years of war and survived it with performances attracting followers of opposing ideologies — continue to stir a collective sense of unity. Paradoxically, agreement over song happens in conjunction with popular calls for these artists to show up on the street and to live up to the ideals they once called for.
Khalife eventually made an appearance in one protest, to mixed reactions. Boutros’ silence has been condemned by some and justified by others. The singer of “Revolutionaries of the land, rise against oppression, rise against depravation,” is the spouse of the defense minister. Hers is an unenviable position, given that today’s revolutionaries decry her husband as one of the symbols of oppression and depravation, whose resignation is their main demand. Rahbani and Al-Roumi continue to be silent, while their songs and memorable quotes resound across a country that seems to have found a unified voice despite deep divisions. Today, as Lebanon is forming a new sense of purpose that stretches across its regionalized territories, it has a readily available store of musical material for the occasion. Whether the singers whose voices have, for decades, called for radical action and glorified revolutionary spirits might decide to declare allegiances this time remains anyone’s guess. But at a point where more uncertainty seemed hardly possible, a surprisingly unified popular voice is turning the tables, managing to upend decades of a careful political balancing act that was brokered by old players. In this new sphere, song seems to once again be the national constant, helping anxiety and reassurance to coexist, at least in the hearts of the Lebanese protesters.
*Tala Jarjour is author of “Sense and Sadness: Syriac Chant in Aleppo” (OUP, 2018). She is currently Visiting Research Fellow at King’s College London and Associate Fellow of Pierson College at Yale.
