Is tacit Aoun-Berri struggle blocking Cabinet formation?
Hasan Lakkis/The Daily Star/December 16/16
Contrary to wide expectations following a wave of optimism that a solution to the 6-week-old Cabinet standoff was at hand, white smoke did not rise from the meeting between President Michel Aoun and Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri heralding the birth of a new government.
Statements made in the past few days by Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri and MP Sleiman Frangieh over solving the problem of the Marada Movement’s representation in the government, as well as remarks by caretaker Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil, had raised hopes that a Cabinet lineup would be announced following Hariri’s meeting with Aoun at Baabda Palace Wednesday.
However, no Cabinet lineup was announced and there are no serious indications that a new government will be born soon, raising doubts that new hurdles might have popped up, hindering its formation.
Following the Wednesday meeting with Aoun, Hariri told reporters that the “matter still requires further consultations.” Matters were heading in a positive direction when agreement was reached to allocate the Public Works Ministry to Frangieh, and the Lebanese Forces, which had insisted on taking control of this ministry, was persuaded to drop this demand, while the Free Patriotic Movement and other political powers did not oppose this solution, sources close to the Cabinet formation process said.
What complicated the situation and brought the Cabinet formation back to square one was not the dispute over whether the government should include 24 or 30 members, but the way in which the announcement over the Cabinet deal was made by Frangieh following his meeting with Berri at Ain al-Tineh, the sources said.
Frangieh declared after his meeting with Berri Monday that the speaker had agreed to concede the Public Works Ministry to the Marada Movement. Berri also said his move was aimed at facilitating the Cabinet formation. Frangieh’s statement was probably interpreted by sources close to Aoun as a sign of victory by one side against another and [Berri’s Ain al-Tineh residence] as a mandatory path to ensure the success of the Cabinet lineup, the sources said.
Media outlets had reported that Aoun was displeased with Frangieh’s statement, which according to the sources, can only be construed as a means of presenting the president with a fait accompli, even though everyone knows very well that Aoun does not like such a method. In the meantime, sources close to the FPM said they doubted all the positive elements that emerged from Ain al-Tineh, adding that they still believe that the Parliament speaker is working to drive a wedge between the FPM and the LF, or that he plans to stir up a Christian-Shiite problem despite the denial issued by Hezbollah chief Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah and Bassil, the FPM leader, in this respect.
The sources noticed the absence of any meeting between Bassil and Berri despite the fact that the former heads a political movement represented in Parliament with about 20 MPs, in addition to his being the president’s son-in-law.
Such a meeting should have taken place had there been intentions that the outcome of the presidential election has become a thing of the past, the sources said. Before knowing the fate of the Cabinet lineup, the sources underlined the need to clarify some facts, the most important of which is whether the FPM is convinced that any divergent viewpoints between the Amal Movement and Hezbollah will not lead to unraveling their alliance over the Cabinet deadlock.
The sources said that Berri must know that it is difficult for him to bring Hezbollah to his side in order to settle scores with the FPM. Until this picture is crystallized, the government’s birth will remain in the freezer unless an agreement is reached between the president and the prime minister-designate on issuing the Cabinet formation decrees, making it difficult for any side to reject it, regardless of how Berri’s relations will develop with the FPM, the sources said.
The sources added that the FPM’s bid to separate the Cabinet formation process from attempts to approve a new electoral law might be linked to the formation path and is also meant to provide proof that the FPM is serious about reforms and that the government will see the daylight sooner or later, regardless of the ministerial portfolio that will be allocated to Frangieh, and whether it will be a 24- or 30-member body.
