Hezbollah secretary general Hassan Nasrallah recently tackled the recent battles southwest of Aleppo, where the party reportedly suffered its worst losses since entering the conflict in Syria. Nasrallah admitted in a speech broadcasted live on the group’s Al-Manar TV on June 24 that 26 Hezbollah fighters had been killed since the beginning of June. This rare acknowledgment of the party’s death toll seems to be an attempt to downplay the recent spate of casualties suffered in fighting near Syria’s largest city. This tally was later confirmed by the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, who reported that “25 Hezbollah fighters were killed in southwest of Aleppo, which is the highest toll for Hezbollah fighters in a single battle since 2013.” Nasrallah later explained that the heavy losses came after the arrival of thousands of opposition fighters to the area via the Turkish border, who aim is to capture Aleppo and its surrounding countryside. However, several experts claim that the mounting Hezbollah casualties were mainly due to a lack of Russian air cover in the battle.
Russia’s unilateral announcement of a two day ceasefire in Aleppo was actually one of the main factors that contributed to Hezbollah’s heavy losses. Russia’s defense ministry stated that the goal of the ceasefire, which began on June 16, was to lower the level of violence and stabilize the situation in Aleppo. However, it was later claimed that Russia announced the ceasefire in Aleppo without consulting Damascus or Tehran and that the Russians intentionally deprived pro-Assad forces in Aleppo of air cover due to conflicting agendas among the allies. Mustafa al-Ahmed, a rebel fighter with Jaysh al-Fatah in Aleppo, believes that the absence of Russian airstrikes was the main reason behind Hezbollah’s losses. “Although the extensive use of mortar shelling and car bombs had contributed to a high number of casualties among Hezbollah’s fighters, the main reason was the absence of Russian air support to the Shiite militias backed by Iran,” Ahmed argued. Similarly, Hezbollah supporters reportedly blamed Russia for the mounting casualties and publically criticized Moscow for not using its air force to protect the party’s fighters.
Exhaustion among Hezbollah fighters, who are spread over several fronts in Syria, may also have contributed to the recent spike in casualties. Ali al-Saadi, a field commander in the Iraqi Shiite militia Harakat al-Nujaba, which is active in Syria and Iraq, told Al-Quds al-Araby that Hezbollah has requested urgent reinforcement from Iraqi Popular Mobilization militias to support their fighters in Aleppo. Saadi linked this request to the increased inability of Hezbollah to fight effectively while its fighters are active in multiple operations across Syria. He added that the Russian government had informed its Syrian counterparts that airstrikes in support of Hezbollah near Aleppo would not be useful unless there were enough soldiers on the ground to secure areas taken from rebels. Although not having enough fighters may have contributed to Hezbollah’s losses, it is unlikely that this was the main reason behind the spike in casualties. Al-Akhbar’s editor-in-chief Ibrahim al-Amin wrote on June 17 that Iran, Russia and Syria have agreed on an action plan for a large battle in Deir Ezzor province in which Hezbollah will play a central role. This claim, if true, refutes Saadi’s explanation and demonstrates that Hezbollah is willing and has the man power to expand their operations into new fronts in Syria.
The most likely explanation behind the mass casualties is that Russia was not on board when the Syrian regime and Iran launched their Aleppo offensive. Nasrallah argued the fighting near Aleppo was necessary to “defend what remains of Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and Jordan.” However, it seems that Hezbollah was not able to convince Russia to fully support this battle. “Nasrallah’s latest speech exposed Iran’s failure to convince Moscow to fully join the fight to retake Aleppo and its countryside from the opposition,” wrote Mustafa Fahs, a former fellow at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations. Interfax news agency also quoted Russia’s ambassador to Syria saying that he did not expect the Syrian army to assault the city in the near future. Nevertheless, it seems that Iran had a plan to change Russia’s position, but the strategy backfired. “Iran was trying to drag Russia into Aleppo by starting the fight there alone and hoping that the developments on the ground would push the later to join. However, it seems that Hezbollah is the one who paid the heaviest price for Iran’s gamble,” said a Western diplomat based in Lebanon, who spoke under the condition of anonymity.
“We had to be in Aleppo, and we will stay in Aleppo,” Hassan Nasrallah declared in the same speech. The Hezbollah leader even promised to increase their presence there as “retreat is not permissible.” However, it seems that the party leader is ignoring the recent improvements in relations between Russia and Turkey, which may reduce Russia’s involvement in Aleppo and could in turn increase the party’s losses there.
**Haid Haid is a Syrian researcher who focuses on foreign and security policy, conflict resolution and Kurds and Islamist movements. He tweets @HaidHaid22
Deir Ezzor civilians pressed into Hezbollah’s new militia: activists
Now Lebanese/July 05/16
BEIRUT – The Syrian regime has reportedly been conscripting civilians in the government-controlled parts of Deir Ezzor city into a new militia force formed by Hezbollah, according to activists. The local Deir Ezzor Is Being Slaughtered Silently group claimed Sunday that regime forces were arresting civilians and forcing them into service with the Zayn al-Abidin Brigade. Meanwhile, the pro-rebel Syria Press Center said Monday that dozens of young men living around the embattled city’s Jura quarter were forcibly conscripted, with the largest round of arrests occurring on Saturday.
“Most of these arrested men were forced into Hezbollah’s recently-formed Zayn al-Abidin Brigade, which has its headquarters in the villas next to Deir Ezzor Central Prison in Jura,” the activist outlet added. Another activist outlet, Al-Nateq, also reported Monday that the Zayn al-Abidin Brigade was undertaking a campaign of pressing young Deir Ezzor men into service, without going further details on the matter.
Reports emerged in late June that Hezbollah had established a new military faction in the city—which is split between the regime and ISIS—called the Zayn al-Abidin Brigade, named after the fourth Shiite Imam, who survived the Battle of Karbala in 680.
The head of the activist Deir Ezzor Is Being Slaughtered Silently group explained that Hezbollah’s new militia force is based in the city’s Al-Jura neighborhood and is comprised of approximately 150 fighters.“Hezbollah members began appearing in the city four months ago,” Ahmad Ramadan told Zaman al-Wasl, adding that regime helicopters have been transporting fighters of the newly-formed Zayn al-Abidin Brigade to Deir Ezzor in the past week.
Hezbollah ramping up Deir Ezzor presence
Hezbollah’s alleged military moves in Deir Ezzor comes after a leading Lebanese daily close to the party printed an article saying that Hezbollah would soon take part in a major regime operation in eastern Syria. Al-Akhbar’s editor-in-chief Ibrahim al-Amin wrote June 18 that Iran, Russia and Syria have agreed on a “large action plan” for a “very big battle in the Deir Ezzor” province in which Hezbollah will play a “central role.”
“Perhaps the forces of [Hezbollah] will face a test largely resembling what happened in Qalamoun, Zabadani and Qusayr,” he said, in reference to the lead role Hezbollah took in the 2013-2015 operations to clear rebels from regions along Syria’s border with Lebanon. Amin, an influential commentator known for his close relations with Hezbollah, noted that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s government has expressed its “strong desire” to support the regime troops holed up in the city of Deir Ezzor, which have been repeatedly attacked by ISIS since the jihadist group swept rebels out of the rest of the province in mid-2014.“A loss [in Deir Ezzor] means a real massacre of thousands of civilians and soldiers, and the loss of a key area in eastern Syria,” the Al-Akhbar column cautioned.
According to Amin, the plans for a wide-scale Deir Ezzor offensive moved forward after the June 9 meeting of Iran, Russia and Syria’s defense ministers in Tehran.
He wrote that mobilization efforts for the upcoming campaign “have just started,” but clarified that the battle will start in the “not-too-distant future.”
Syrian army troops backed by Hezbollah, Russia and Iran seized Palmyra—an ancient archaeological city approximately 185 kilometers west of Deir Ezzor—from ISIS on March 27.
In the days following the Palmyra victory, the pro-regime forces set their sights eastward on Al-Sukhna, a town on the M20 highway leading to Deir Ezzor, however no major desert drive materialized.
“Linking Palmyra to Deir Ezzor will contribute to [splitting lines between] ISIS’s main areas of in Syria and Iraq, and disperse their forces fighting in the Raqqa and Aleppo provinces,” Amin postulated in his report.
He further claimed that the planned east Syria offensive “will not be part of a deal” reached with the US, which is currently backing the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces battling ISIS in northern Syria.
The US has also reportedly supported two smaller Free Syrian Army-factions, the New Syrian Army and Ahmad al-Abdo Martyrs Brigades, conducting small-scale campaigns against ISIS in the vast Syrian semi-desert stretching to the Iraqi and Jordanian borders.
**NOW’s English news desk editor Albin Szakola (@AlbinSzakola) wrote this report.
