How rivals would react if Geagea supports Aoun’s candidacy
Hasan Lakkis| The Daily Star
January 14/16
Officials on both sides of the political spectrum are bracing themselves for the possibility of Lebanese Forces chief Samir Geagea declaring his support for MP Michel Aoun’s candidacy for the presidency against MP Sleiman Frangieh’s bid, which is backed by the Future Movement and some regional and international powers.
Sources in both the LF and the Free Patriotic Movement said efforts are underway to arrange a meeting between Aoun and Geagea at the latter’s residence in Maarab during which the LF chief would announce his endorsement of the FPM founder’s candidacy for the country’s top Christian post.
Political circles asked how various political parties would react to such an event which is bound to send shockwaves across the country, where Parliament has failed to elect a new president since April 2014 due to a lack of quorum and sharp differences between the March 8 and March 14 camps over who should be the next head of state.
In weighing possible reactions to Geagea’s endorsement of Aoun’s presidential candidacy, political sources said that such a move would evoke satisfaction in Christian areas as was manifested in comments made by supporters of the LF and FPM and also by some neutral Christian factions.
“The Christian popular base will be satisfied because such a development will dispel traditional fears between the Aounists and the LF and reflect positively within the ranks of students, universities, unions and other organizations,” the sources said.
The sources said that the influential Catholic Maronite Church would not be able to stand against Aoun’s candidacy, even though it would not declare a clear position, but would cover it by welcoming any rapprochement among the Christians.
In sharp contrast, Geagea’s support for Aoun’s candidacy will not be welcomed by the Kataeb Party, the sources said, adding that the Kataeb will always be skeptical about the continuation of agreement between the Aounists and the LF.
The sources said Christian independents would react negatively to Geagea’s decision to back Aoun’s presidential bid, but without taking any escalatory steps. However, the independent team will be worried about its political future because a Geagea-Aoun alliance will be applied to parliamentary and municipal electoral tickets, the sources said.
Yet, the strongest reactions will definitely come from Frangieh who will seriously feel that if his rival, Aoun, wins the presidency, he will restrict the Marada Movement leader’s capability to spread in the north by keeping him confined in Zghorta and Ehden, the sources said.
At the Muslim level, the sources said that by supporting Aoun’s candidacy, Geagea would embarrass former Prime Minister Saad Hariri, who had told Aoun during their meeting in Paris last year that if the LF backed him for the presidency, he [Hariri] would do the same.
The sources noted that Hezbollah will be the party embarrassed most by Geagea’s support for Aoun’s candidacy.
While Hezbollah wants to see Aoun elected president, it will not be happy with a Geagea-Aoun alliance in the future, they said.
Declaration of Geagea’s support for Aoun’s presidential bid still needs further consultations, according to LF and FPM sources. But if it happens, it will present Arab and international capitals interested in Lebanon with the following equation: Aoun gets support for his candidacy from the Hezbollah-led March 8 alliance and a key faction [LF] of the March 14 coalition, while Frangieh wins March 14 backing [the Future Movement], without getting support from his allies in the March 8 bloc.
Under the same equation, Aoun will get support from the majority of Christians and a good section of Muslims, while Frangieh will win only the backing of Sunnis and a minority of Christians that does not exceed 25 percent, the political sources said.
However, the sources pointed out that any understanding between two sides or two leaders in Lebanon on a presidential candidate cannot be attained in the absence of a regional and international understanding, namely between Iran, Saudi Arabia and Washington. They added that an understanding between Aoun and Geagea is capable of obstructing the presidential election, but is unable to impose a president.
The creation of a broad-based Christian political front following Geagea’s declaration of his support for Aoun’s presidential candidacy is ruled out, the sources said. “But this does not mean that the alliance between them will be strong and effective, while waiting to see what shape the relationship between the LF and Saudi Arabia will take,” the sources said.
