إسرائيل قتلت 23 بينهم إيرانيون بضربات جوية واسعة النطاق في سوريا استهدفت فيلق القدس وقوات النظام/Israel killed 23 in strikes over 20 Iranian, Syrian regime targets/Syria is an increasingly dangerous chessboard for Iran in the Middle East/Ex-Mossad chief: Israel must disrupt Iranian influence in Iraq

106

23 قتيلاً بينهم إيرانيون بضربات إسرائيلية «واسعة النطاق» في سوريا والقصف استهدف «فيلق القدس» وقوات النظام… وموسكو تعتبره «خطوة خاطئة»
بيروت/الشرق الأوسط/20 تشرين الثاني/2019

صواريخ اسرائيلية قرب دمشق بعد قصف على الجولان بعد استهداف قيادي من «الجهاد» قرب العاصمة السورية و«الحشد» العراقي في البوكمال
تل أبيب: نظير مجلي – بيروت – لندن/الشرق الأوسط/20 تشرين الثاني/2019

23 killed as Israel strikes over 20 Iranian, Syrian regime targets
جيرازلم بوست: مقتل 23 شخص في سوريا منهم 20 من الإيرانيين جراء غارات إسرائيلية على اهداف داخل سورية
Jerusalem Post/November 20/2019

Syria is an increasingly dangerous chessboard for Iran in the Middle East
Jerusalem Post/November 20/2019

Ex-Mossad chief: Israel must disrupt Iranian influence in Iraq
Jerusalem Post/November 20/2019

Israeli air strikes knock over dozens of Iranian Guards and Syrian army targets
DEBKAfile/November 20/2019

*************
23 قتيلاً بينهم إيرانيون بضربات إسرائيلية «واسعة النطاق» في سوريا والقصف استهدف «فيلق القدس» وقوات النظام… وموسكو تعتبره «خطوة خاطئة»
بيروت/الشرق الأوسط/20 تشرين الثاني/2019
أكد الجيش الإسرائيلي أنه نفّذ هجمات جوية «على نطاق واسع» ضد مواقع عسكرية في دمشق، اليوم (الأربعاء)، مشيراً إلى أن الهجمات استهدفت «فيلق القدس» الإيراني وقوات النظام. وقال الجيش الإسرائيلي في تغريدة على حسابه في «تويتر»: «نفذنا للتو هجمات واسعة النطاق على أهداف لفيلق القدس الإيراني والقوات المسلحة السورية في سوريا رداً على الصواريخ التي أُطلقت على إسرائيل من قبل قوة إيرانية في سوريا». ونشر الجيش الإسرائيلي خارطة لستة مواقع قام بقصفها معظمها بالقرب من العاصمة السورية، وموقع بالقرب من الحدود الإسرائيلية تماماً. من جانبها، اعتبرت موسكو الضربات الجوية الإسرائيلية على سوريا «خطوة خاطئة». ونقلت وكالة إنترفاكس للأنباء عن ميخائيل بوغدانوف نائب وزير الخارجية الروسي قوله إن موسكو تواصلت مع حلفائها بشأن الواقعة، وكان الجيش الإسرائيلي أعلن امس (الثلاثاء) أن دفاعاته الجوية اعترضت أربعة صواريخ أُطلقت من سوريا المجاورة، بينما أفاد المرصد السوري لحقوق الإنسان أن الجانب الإسرائيلي رد بشن غارات على أهداف قرب دمشق. وأعلن المرصد مقتل 23 شخصاً بينهم مدنيان و16 مقاتلاً غير سوري من القوات الإيرانية والمسلحين الموالين لها جراء الضربات الإسرائيلية المكثفة على مواقع عسكرية في دمشق وريفها في ساعة مبكرة من صباح اليوم. وذكر المرصد أن القصف الإسرائيلي استهدف مواقع في الكسوة ومنطقة سعسع ومطار المزة العسكري وجديدة عرطوز وضاحية قدسيا ومحيط صحنايا جنوب وجنوب غربي العاصمة دمشق، وجرى تدمير مستودعات للأسلحة والذخائر تابعة لـ«فيلق القدس» التابع لـ«الحرس الثوري» الإيراني، كما جرى استهداف معسكر لهم، بالإضافة لاستهداف بطاريات صواريخ أرض – جو ومواقع لقوات النظام. وكان إعلام النظام السوري أعلن أن «الدفاعات الجوية السورية أسقطت أهدافاً معادية» عدة جنوب دمشق. وشن الجيش الإسرائيلي عملية ضد «حركة الجهاد الإسلامي» في قطاع غزة الأسبوع الماضي. واستهدف منزل أحد قادة الحركة أكرم العجوري ما أدى إلى سقوط قتيلين أحدهما ابنه. كما اندلعت مواجهات في غزة بعد اغتيال إسرائيل بهاء أبو العطا القيادي العسكري في «حركة الجهاد الإسلامي» والتي ردت بإطلاق صواريخ في اتجاه إسرائيل. وقال الجيش الإسرائيلي أن الحركة أطلقت نحو 450 صاروخاً. ورد الطيران الإسرائيلي بشن عشرات الغارات الجوية التي استهدفت خصوصاً مواقع لـ«حركة الجهاد الإسلامي». وبعد يومين من بدء المواجهات قُتل ثمانية من أفراد عائلة فلسطينية واحدة (رجل وامرأتان وخمسة أطفال) في ضربة في دير البلح بجنوب القطاع المحصار الذي يبلغ عدد سكانه نحو مليوني نسمة. وفتح الجيش الإسرائيلي تحقيقاً في سقوط ضحايا مدنيين «غير متوقعين» في هذه الضربة. وأسفر التصعيد بين الجانبين عن مقتل 34 فلسطينياً وجرح 110 آخرين، حسب وزارة الصحة في القطاع. وأُبرم اتفاق للتهدئة بعد جهود بذلتها مصر والأمم المتحدة لمنع تصعيد أخطر بين الجانبين.

صواريخ اسرائيلية قرب دمشق بعد قصف على الجولان بعد استهداف قيادي من «الجهاد» قرب العاصمة السورية و«الحشد» العراقي في البوكمال
تل أبيب: نظير مجلي – بيروت – لندن/الشرق الأوسط/20 تشرين الثاني/2019
شنّت طائرات إسرائيلية، صباح الثلاثاء، غارات قرب دمشق رداً على صواريخ أطلقت من سوريا باتجاه إسرائيل، حسب تقرير لـ«المرصد السوري لحقوق الإنسان».
وأفادت وكالة الأنباء السورية الرسمية (سانا) صباحاً بـ«دوي انفجارات» قرب مطار دمشق الدولي، من دون إضافة تفاصيل. وقال مدير «المرصد السوري» رامي عبد الرحمن لوكالة الصحافة الفرنسية، «استهدفت طائرات إسرائيلية بنحو خمسة صواريخ مواقع جنوب وجنوب غربي دمشق انطلقت منها الصواريخ على إسرائيل». وأوضح أن تلك المواقع تعود «لمجموعات موالية لقوات النظام، وقد تكون (حزب الله) اللبناني أو فصائل فلسطينية». وأعلن الجيش الإسرائيلي صباحاً اعتراض نظام الدفاع الجوي «أربعة صواريخ أطلقت من سوريا باتجاه الأراضي الإسرائيلية»، مؤكداً أنه «لم يصب أي من الصواريخ هدفاً في إسرائيل». ولم يصدر أي تعليق من إسرائيل حول الغارات في سوريا. وقتل شخصان، بينهما ابن القيادي في حركة «الجهاد الإسلامي» الفلسطينية أكرم العجوري، فجر الثلاثاء الماضي في قصف إسرائيلي في دمشق، وفق ما أفاد الإعلام الرسمي السوري والفصيل الفلسطيني الذي أعلن أيضاً «اغتيال» إسرائيل لأحد قادته في قطاع غزة.
وأفادت وكالة الأنباء السورية الرسمية (سانا) بأن «العدوان الإسرائيلي قام بإطلاق ثلاثة صواريخ»، أصاب اثنان منها منزل العجوري في منطقة المزة، ما أسفر عن «مقتل ابنه معاذ إضافة لشخص آخر»، وإصابة عشرة أشخاص آخرين بجروح. وأعلنت حركة «الجهاد الإسلامي» وقتذاك، بدورها، استهداف منزل عضو مكتبها السياسي أكرم العجوري، في دمشق، ما «أدى لمقتل أحد أبنائه». وأعلنت الحركة «استنفارها»، وقالت إنها «بدأت بالتصدي لهذا العدوان».
وكثّفت إسرائيل في الأعوام الأخيرة وتيرة قصفها في سوريا، وتستهدف بشكل أساسي مواقع للجيش السوري وأهدافاً إيرانية وأخرى لـ«حزب الله». وتُكرّر التأكيد على أنها ستواصل تصدّيها لما تصفه بمحاولات إيران الرامية إلى ترسيخ وجودها العسكري في سوريا، وإرسال أسلحة متطورة إلى «حزب الله». وقال «المرصد» إن طائرة من دون طيار استهدفت مساء الأحد سيارة لقوات «الحشد الشعبي» الموالية لقوات النظام عند أطراف مدينة البوكمال شرق دير الزور، بالقرب من الحدود السورية – العراقية، «حيث جرى تدمير السيارة ومقتل جميع من كان بداخلها، فيما لم تعلم هوية الطائرة التي استهدفت السيارة». كان «المرصد السوري» نشر أن «انفجاراً يعتقد أنه من طائرات مجهولة، استهدف موقعاً للميليشيات الموالية لإيران في قرية الرمادي بريف مدينة البوكمال، دون معرفة حجم الخسائر البشرية»، فيما أفادت مصادر لـ«المرصد السوري» بأن انفجارات سمعت قبل أيام في المنطقة دون معرفة تفاصيل إضافية. كان «المرصد السوري لحقوق الإنسان» نشر في 12 من الشهر الماضي، أن «طائرات مسيرة مجهولة، حلقت في سماء مدينة البوكمال الخاضعة لسيطرة القوات الإيرانية والميليشيات الموالية لها بريف دير الزور الشرقي، وسط استهداف القوات الإيرانية لها بالمضادات».
وفي ظل تصعيد للتوتر، وإرسال قوات إسناد جديدة، وإعلان الاستنفار الحربي الشامل في الجليل، إثر إطلاق 4 صواريخ من سوريا باتجاه مواقع الجيش الإسرائيلي في الجولان، قرر رئيس الأركان أفيف كوخافي، الرد على القصف بحذر، حتى لا يتهم جيشه بالمبادرة إلى الحرب، في وقت وجد رئيس الوزراء بنيامين نتنياهو ذلك فرصة لتعزيز مكانته في رئاسة الحكومة وإجهاض إمكانية تشكيل حكومة تستند على أصوات النواب العرب. وكان سكان المستوطنات اليهودية في هضبة الجولان السوري المحتلة، استيقظوا بهلع فجر أمس (الثلاثاء)، عندما أطلقت الجبهة الداخلية في الجيش الإسرائيلي صفارات الإنذار تدعوهم لدخول الملاجئ أو المناطق الأخرى الآمنة. وبعد نصف دقيقة طولبوا بالعودة لممارسة حياتهم الطبيعية. وأعلن الجيش أن 4 صواريخ أطلقت من الأراضي السورية باتجاه مواقعه في الجولان، فقام بإطلاق صواريخ القبة الحديدية، التي صدتها ودمرتها وهي في الجو، قبل أن تسقط في مواقع إسرائيلية. وقد ردت إسرائيل على هذا القصف، لكن بحذر، كي لا تتهم بأنها أشعلت حرباً ضد إيران. فقصفت مواقع في جنوب وغرب دمشق؛ حيث ينشط «حزب الله» اللبناني وغيره من الميليشيات الإيرانية.
ووفقاً لمصادر عربية، فإن إسرائيل استهدفت هذه المواقع بـ5 صواريخ، مؤكدة سياستها القائلة إنه لا يمكن أن يترك أي قصف على إسرائيل من دون ردّ. لكن مصادر مقربة من الجيش، أوضحت فوراً أنها لا تنوي الرد على التصعيد الإيراني بتصعيد أعلى، حتى تظل الأمور منضبطة. وأشار محللون عسكريون إسرائيليون إلى أن إطلاق الصواريخ من الأراضي السورية، فجر أمس، جاء رداً على العملية التي نسبت لإسرائيل، وفيها حاول سلاح الجو الإسرائيلي اغتيال القيادي في حركة «الجهاد الإسلامي» الفلسطيني، أكرم العجوري، مع العلم بأنه نجا من الاغتيال. لكن نجله قُتل وأصيبت زوجته، باستهداف ضاحية المزة في دمشق، وذلك في موازاة اغتيال إسرائيل للقيادي العسكري في الحركة في قطاع غزة، بهاء أبو العطا، يوم الثلاثاء الماضي.
وأكد هؤلاء الخبراء، نقلاً عن مصادر عسكرية عليا، أن محاولتي الاغتيال، الناجحة والفاشلة، كانتا بمثابة رسالة موجهة إلى إيران. وقال الجنرال يعقوب عميدرور، الرئيس الأسبق لمجلس الأمن القومي الإسرائيلي، وأحد واضعي السياسة الإسرائيلية تجاه إيران: «ما يجري يسمى دائرة النار… تحاول إيران إشعالها حول دولة إسرائيل. جميع المنظمات المحيطة، بما في ذلك (حماس)، مدعومة من قبل إيران على هذا المستوى أو ذاك. لكن منظمة (الجهاد الإسلامي) فقط هي التي تغذيها ميزانية إيرانية. صحيح أنها لا تعتبر، في أي حال، الجزء القوي أو المهم من آلة الحرب التي بنتها إيران حول دولة إسرائيل. لكن المنظمة هي قوة قسرية إيرانية، وقد نجحوا في جعل غزة جزءاً من حلقة النار نفسها».وقال المحلل العسكري في «القناة 12» للتلفزيون الإسرائيلي، روني دانييل، نقلاً عن مصادر عسكرية، الثلاثاء، إن المسؤولين في تل أبيب يرون أن «إطلاق الصواريخ الأربعة، فجر أمس، يأتي في إطار السياسة الجديدة التي تتبعها إيران، منذ أشهر، وتقضي بالرد على أي عملية عسكرية إسرائيلية. وأن الإسرائيليين يفكرون بالطريقة نفسها في موضوع الرد. وعليه فقد أعلنت حالة استنفار في الشمال لمواجهة أي تطور أو تدهور». وعلى إثر ذلك، سارع نتنياهو للإعلان عن ضرورة تشكيل حكومة وحدة بين الحزبين الأكبرين، الليكود وكحول لفان، واجتمع إلى رئيس حزب الروس أفيغدور ليبرمان، في محاولة لدفع فرص إقامة حكومة كهذه. وقال إن «الوضع الأمني الصعب الذي تواجهه إسرائيل يحتم أن يرتقي المسؤولون الإسرائيليون، ويترفعوا عن المصالح الضيقة، ويقيموا حكومة طوارئ تواجه التحديات بقوة».

23 killed as Israel strikes over 20 Iranian, Syrian regime targets
جيرازلم بوست: مقتل 23 شخص في سوريا منهم 20 من الإيرانيين جراء غارات إسرائيلية على اهداف داخل سورية
Jerusalem Post/November 20/2019
Defense Minister Naftali Bennett to Iran: You are no longer immune. Wherever you stretch your tentacles-we will hack them off.
Israel warned Iran from carrying out further attacks against the Jewish State after Israeli Air Force fighter jets carried out a wave of retaliatory air strikes against dozens of military targets belonging to the Iranian Quds Force (IRGC) and the Syrian army on Tuesday night in Syria.
Israeli Defense Minister Naftali Bennett said following the strikes that “the rules have changed: Anyone who shoots at the State of Israel during the day will not sleep at night. Like last week and now this week. Our message to Iran’s leaders is simple: You are no longer immune. Wherever you stretch your tentacles-we will hack them off. The IDF will continue to protect Israeli citizens According to a senior official in Israel’s Defense Establishment, the “head of the Iranian octopus” sits in Tehran but continues to attempt to surround Israel with proxy groups-Hezbollah in Lebanon, Iranian militias in Syria, Islamic Jihad and to some extent Hamas.“We have not yet threatened the head of the octopus – Tehran. But it is possible to start approaching the head of the Iranian octopus,” he warned.
IDF Spokesperson Brig.Gen. Hidai Zilberman told reporters on Wednesday the tens of targets struck in Damascus, west of Damascus and the Syrian Golan Heights overnight belonging both to the regime of Bashar al-Assad and Quds Force were carried out within minutes and were all located within 80 kilometers of Israel’s border. While the launchers which fired the rockets on Tuesday morning were not struck, some 20 other targets struck included advanced air defense systems (not the Russian-made S-300 missile defense batteries), surface-to-air missiles, reconnaissance sites and warehouses, the National Defense Building at the Damascus International Airport which houses the Quds Force headquarters and other military positions. According to the British-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), 23 people, including 16 non-Syrians who are most likely Iranians, were killed in the Israeli airstrikes. The senior Israel defense official acknowledged that there were injuries and a number of Iranian fatalities. Numerous others were injured, including a young woman who was wounded by shrapnel that hit the suburb of Qudsaya, west of Damascus.
“We express the wish for a speedy recovery for them,” the Assad government said in a statement carried by state news agency SANA. According to the senior Israeli defense official, the strikes were one of the largest which struck Iranian targets in Syria and was finalized Tuesday night by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Jerusalem, Defense Minister Naftali Bennett and IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Aviv Kochavi at the Kirya Military Headquarters in Tel Aviv. “Iran struck Israel, we can’t forget that. Iran attacked Israel and that’s not acceptable,” he continued, saying that Israel will strike harshly without giving any warning if attacked in the future. “We are changing the rules. Even when it comes to almost negligible attacks, whose impact is small, we are changing the equation and our retaliatory attack will be widespread. When I looked at the South when a small number of rockets are fired and we respond with a small retaliatory strike, then that sort of situation gets to be acceptable. We have to strike harshly to all attacks,” the official said, noting the link of the assassination of Palestinian Islamic Jihad leader Bahaa abu al-Ata in Gaza and the rockets of yesterday.
According to the senior officer in the defense establishment, the National Defense Building, which used to be a hotel, was a center for the Quds force.
“We will not let Iran entrench in Syria,” Zilberman said, adding that the IDF “is prepared to respond harshly to further attacks if necessary. We will not accept an Iranian force near our borders and will continue to work against it.”
Local Syrian media reported that two residential buildings were also struck from shrapnel from a Syrian air defense missile fired towards Israeli jets, sending one family including two children to hospital.
Syria responded quickly to the airstrikes, publishing numerous photos and According to SANA, Damascus promised to provide assistance to those who suffered the “brutal Israeli aggression” by repairing the homes of those affected.
It said that help would arrive immediately to those areas struck, with rescue teams sent to clear rubble in the village of Beit Saber in the Sasa district south of Damascus where a house was destroyed. According to SOHR, a man along with his wife and son were pulled from the rubble of the home Ambulances and fire engines were sent to other areas.
“During the attack, Syrian air missiles were fired, despite a clear warning that was ignored. As a result, several Syrian aerial defense batteries were destroyed,” the IDF said.
While the main goal were Iranian targets, the official said, the secondary goal were six air-to-ground missile batteries belonging to the Syrian regime “to maintain freedom of action and protect our pilots.”
While the IDF Spokesperson stressed that no special instructions for the North have been given, the military was prepared for three possible scenarios: no response, a minor response, and a more significant response.
“The IDF is highly prepared for a variety of scenarios and will continue to operate as required for the security of the citizens of the State of Israel. The Home Front Command instructions should be obeyed if required.”
The strike which began around 1AM on Wednesday morning was carried out in response to four rockets which the IDF said were launched by an Iranian force from Syrian territory towards northern Israeli territory in the early hours of Tuesday morning.
All rockets were intercepted by the Iron Dome missile defense system, causing no damage or injuries.
“The Iranian attack against Israeli territory yesterday is further proof of the current Iranian purpose in Syria. Their presence in the region is a danger to Israel’s security, regional stability and to the Syrian regime,” the military said.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued a statement following the attack, saying in it that “I made it clear that whoever harms us – we will harm them.”
“That is what we did tonight in Syria against Iranian Quds Force targets and Syrian military targets, after rockets were fired from its territory towards Israel. We will continue to aggressively guard the security of Israel.”
Syrian news agency Sana reported that Syrian regime air defense systems were able to intercept some of the 11 of the 18 missiles fired by a total of 6 jets before they were able to reach their targets.
According to SANA, regime defenses came under “a heavy attack” by Israeli fighter jets that targeted the Damascus area from the Israeli Golan Heights and Lebanese airspace near the town of Marjayoun.
Israel has been carrying out a war-between-wars campaign since 2013 in an attempt to prevent Iran and its proxies like Hezbollah from obtaining advanced weapons to use against the Jewish state and from entrenching itself in Syria.
Thousands of strikes have been carried out over the years in Syria and according to foreign reports has seen strikes in neighboring Iraq.
IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Aviv Kochavi and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have warned in recent weeks of the increased threat posed by the Islamic Republic which they say is getting bolder and more willing to respond to Israeli attacks on Iranian and Iranian-backed militias and infrastructure.
*Seth Frantzman contributed to this report.

Syria is an increasingly dangerous chessboard for Iran in the Middle East
Jerusalem Post/November 20/2019
Iran has so many forces in Syria that in 2018 the US included in its official policy the “removal of all Iranian-led forces and proxies from the country.”
Iran has spent many years exploiting the weakness of the Syrian regime to entrench its forces in the country, hoping to come out of the Syrian civil war in a much stronger position in the Middle East. It is part of Iran’s grand strategy through which it has also sought to take over parts of Iraq’s government and lever unprecedented influence over Lebanon’s political system. There isn’t much standing in Iran’s way, as the US has indicated its long-term objective is to leave Syria and its role in Iraq is tailored only to fighting ISIS. Iran’s role in Syria increasingly threatens Israel, as revealed through recent tensions and numerous air strikes on Iranian targets that Israel has said it carried out over the years.
Iran’s role in Iraq has a new spotlight on it after 700 pages of documents were leaked from Iran’s intelligence services to The Intercept and The New York Times. In Syria Iran’s role is more murky but it is also well known. Iran has so many forces in Syria that in 2018 the US included in its official policy the “removal of all Iranian-led forces and proxies from the country.” US recent studies, such as the Defense Intelligence Agency, include classified information on Iran’s presence, but a recent Inspector General report about the US-led operations against ISIS noted that “the bulk of Iranian-commander forces were concentrated in the western half of Syria prior to the USS withdrawal.” Iranian-backed militias are in close proximity to US forces “as part of the Iranian goal of forging ground lines of communications from the Iraqi border.”
We also know that satellite images from ImageSat International show Iran continues construction of its Imam Ali base near Albukamal on the Iraqi border. Other reports indicated that Iran had up to 19 bases in Syria in 2018.
From Iran’s perspective, Syria has been a key ally and a conduit for arms shipments to Hezbollah. This has gone back decades. But Iran knew in the early 200s that the Assad regime was flirting with the West and that if it could balance Iran’s role it would like to. The uprising in 2011 led the regime deeper into the hands of Iran, making it more dependent on Iran and Russia. Increasingly the regime was hollowed out, losing tens of thousands of casualties that it couldn’t replace and inviting in more of the IRGC and IRGC allies such as Hezbollah and Shi’ites recruited from Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iraq. Syria became a modern version of what Germany looked like during the Thirty Years War, a kind of massive black hole of suffering upon which was built a chess board for foreign powers.
The Syrian civil war began as one between Syrians. It looked like Syria had fallen into brief chaos, like Libya in 2011, but in fact the regime’s crackdown and the arming of the rebellion led to years of strife and destruction. Little by little, foreign actors moved in. Hezbollah in 2012-2013, ISIS and 50,000 of its foreign fighters in 2014, Russia in 2015, Turkey in 2016, and of course the US and Iran. The US, backing the Syrian Democratic Forces, came to control a third of Syria. Turkey took over another twenty percent. The regime eventually defeated the rebels in the south in the summer of 2018. But the regime then watched as Russia gave the approval for Turkish operation against Kurdish fighters in Afrin in January 2018 and also signed an Idlib ceasefire in September 2018. Russia was now the guarantor of Turkey’s role, because Russia was selling Turkey the S-400 air defense system. Russia, the ally of the Syrian regime, was also a kind of enabler of Turkey’s role. Russia could turn over more areas or not. It signed another deal on October 22 enabling Turkey to grab areas it had taken from the SDF and the Americans in October.
Now Syria appears partitioned, between Turkey in the north, a fading US influence in the east and south, and a growing Iranian influence in the south. Russia plays the big grandmaster watching all of this take place. But Russia is not interested in confronting the US or Iran or Turkey. Russia’s goal is to use Sochi and Astana, and even Geneva, to bring Iran and Turkey to the table again and again. The US is cut-out from this process and the US anyway sought to exclude its own SDF partners from Geneva. So long term, the US role in Syria is likely going to be deeply reduced or end.
But Iran’s role will grow. The problem for Iran is it has too many missions in Syria. It wants to cement its bases. It wants to build its “land bridge” to the sea and Hezbollah with an off-ramp toward the Golan. It wants to sign deals with Assad. And it wants to project influence along the Euphrates river valley towards Deir Ezzor.
Iran is struggling economically though. Protests at home harm its abilities abroad. It has an uphill struggle in Syria to maintain and expand its role. Iran has the technology that it wants to transfer, the precision guidance for instance that it hopes to put in Hezbollah’s hands. But it must be careful because protests in Iraq have also targeted Iran’s presence. Protests in Lebanon have also led to uncertainty there. Iran faces now what all great powers face as they become too powerful. They must manage their power. Iran says it is the “resistance.” But people are now “resisting” Iran throughout the region and at home. It’s bases are open targets, it has difficult conducting truly clandestine affairs. It’s main power is in human resources and deepening its human ties to places in Syria, Iraq and Lebanon. This is how it gets its power, through its network of Shi’ite allies, and places like the Sayyida Zaynab shrine in Damascus where pro-Iranian fighters gather.
Now Iran must determine what its next step is in Syria. The role of its IRGC Quds Force has been key to supporting the Assad regime while also benefiting on the side. But Iran understands that its role is entangled with the regime and also with the Russian role. Its presence must not undermine either of the others. In addition the Syrian regime and Russians are focused more on the north today, while there are questions about what the US is doing in the east. In the south and west therefore Iran’s forces have tended to be targeted by Israel over the last years. Iran boasts that it its IRGC believes the destruction of Israel is no longer just a dream. Towards that end it invested in new missiles, drones and other technology. It even transferred that technology to Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. Those transfers have made Iran’s role in Syria even more dangerous.

Ex-Mossad chief: Israel must disrupt Iranian influence in Iraq
Jerusalem Post/November 20/2019
Yatom was responding to hundreds of newly leaked Iranian documents that offered a detailed portrait of how aggressively and successfully Tehran has penetrated Baghdad.
Israeli intelligence must work to disrupt Iranian influence and its natural advantages in Iraq that could endanger Israeli security and Western interests, former Mossad chief Danny Yatom told The Jerusalem Post on Tuesday.
Reflecting over Monday’s reports in The Intercept and The New York Times regarding hundreds of newly leaked Iranian documents that offered a detailed portrait of how aggressively and successfully Tehran has penetrated Baghdad, Yatom said that the challenge was considerable, but that Israel could rise to the moment.
“Iran has a big advantage,” the former Mossad chief said. “There are many Iranians in Iraq,” highlighting that this home-field advantage makes it much easier “to build large facilities from which they can fire missiles” on Israel.
Yatom noted that both Israeli intelligence and the country’s aerial power might be in play, with Israel already having suspecting Iran-loyal militias that were building new capacities to potentially attack Israel from within Iraq.
“Iran wants to influence Iraq’s prime minister who often acts as if he is acting for them,” Yatom explained. “He is Shi’ite. Also, the prime minister before him was Shi’ite, but the newest one seems to lean even more toward” the Islamic Republic.
Noting that the current Iraqi prime minister “is not stopping Iran from sending militias into Iraq or building facilities there,” Yatom said that another issue raised by the report was the enhanced opportunity Iran has in Iraq to try to turn CIA, US State Department and other Western officials to start working for them.
“Iran is exploiting all of its options, not just in Iraq itself,” but using its penetration of Iraq to “recruit spies who will spy on Israel, the US and NATO states.”
Tehran’s goal continues to be using Iraqi territory “to train, to prepare attacks, to fire rockets that can reach Israel, and to spread out” its capabilities for attacking Israel and adversaries like the Saudis to as many places as possible, including Yemen, “so that it is harder for Israel, the US” and others to manage.
Despite all of the freedom that Iraq is giving Iran to operate in its territory and the potential cover that this gives the Islamic Republic, Yatom said that he did not think Iraq itself “has any interest in clashing with Israel directly. It is enough to give Iran lots of freedom.”
Yatom lamented that “until the US withdrew from Iraq, US influence was strong enough that Iran did very little there besides work with Shi’ite groups like that of Muqtada al-Sadr,” which, though problematic, was not nearly as threatening to Israel and the West as current groups directly controlled by Iran.
However, Yatom was still confident that Israeli intelligence has the capacity to penetrate Iraq to perform surveillance regarding Iranian forces and militias. “Israel always needs an intelligence presence in every place that endangers us and any place where there are Iranians,” he said, adding that although there were always challenges, it was easier to collect intelligence in Iraq than in Iran.
This was a strong statement given that in January 2018, dozens of Mossad agents penetrated the heart of Tehran to make off with the Iranian’s secret nuclear files.
The Iranian intelligence documents that were revealed on Monday went into great detail about their work, especially regarding al-Quds Force chief Qasem Soleimani, to embed themselves into every area of Iraqi affairs.
Documents from the leaked cables detail years of painstaking work by Iranian spies to co-opt the country’s leaders, buy-off Iraqi agents working for the US to switch sides, and infiltrate Iraq’s political, economic, and religious life. Mainly, the documents portray Iran as broadly outplaying the US within the Iraqi arena, especially when the CIA started to cut back its investment in Iraq.
One Iraqi nicknamed in the cables as “Donnie Brasco” turned to Iran for protection when the CIA started cutting many of its Iraqi agents loose.
He promised to tell Iran everything he knew about American intelligence gathering in Iraq – it was all for sale.
Monday’s report said that the documents indicate that he revealed “the locations of CIA safe houses; the names of hotels where CIA operatives met with agents; details of his weapons and surveillance training; and the names of other Iraqis working as spies for the Americans.”
Yatom made it clear that unlike the US, Israel would need to play the same longer-term game that the Iranians are playing, without dropping out of the game prematurely.
Some of the Iranian intelligence cables describe real-life espionage capers in dark alleyways and shopping malls, or under the cover of a hunting excursion or a birthday party.
These documents describe informants lurking at the Baghdad airport, copiously photographing American soldiers and performing surveillance of coalition military flights.
The archive even contains expense reports from Iraq’s intelligence ministry going deep into minutia, like €87.50 spent on gifts for a Kurdish commander.

Israeli air strikes knock over dozens of Iranian Guards and Syrian army targets
DEBKAfile/November 20/2019
Israel fighter jets early Wednesday, Nov. 20 smashed dozens of Iranian Revolutionary Guards and Syrian military targets in Syria – payback for the four-rocket volley against the Golan. They included ground-to-air missile batteries, command centers, weapons stores and bases. The IDF reported that Syrian anti-air batteries were destroyed after opening fire on the Israeli jets, although a warning was relayed to Damascus to abstain. Syrian military sources describe the Israeli fighters as shooting missiles from airspace over the Golan and Lebanon.
At the end of the attack, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu issued a brief statement: “I have said clearly that if anyone harms us, we will harm them. That is what we did tonight to the Iranian Al Qods Brigades and Syrian military targets, after rockets were aimed from Syria against Israel. We shall continue to vigorously safeguard Israel’s security.”
DEBKAfile’s military sources: Israel and Iran have recently embarked on an extraordinary duel, conducted between Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Aviv Kochavi for the IDF and and the Al Qods Brigades chief Gen. Qassem Soleimani for Iran’s Revolutionary Guards.
The Iranian general is determined to draw Israel into a drawn-out war of attrition on multiple fronts, Syria, Lebanon and the Gaza Strip, whereas the Israeli general’s tactics center on cutting short a potentially slow, debilitating conflict by sharp strikes against Iranian targets and those of its allies. Iran never knows when these surprise attacks are coming or where. Last week, Iran challenged Israel from the Gaza Strip with 450 Palestinian Islamic Jihad rockets. This week, the site of the duel moved to Syria.