Bible Quotation For Today/Because you do not belong to the world, but I have chosen you out of the world therefore the world hates you.
John 15/18-21: “‘If the world hates you, be aware that it hated me before it hated you. If you belonged to the world, the world would love you as its own. Because you do not belong to the world, but I have chosen you out of the world therefore the world hates you.
Remember the word that I said to you, “Servants are not greater than their master.” If they persecuted me, they will persecute you; if they kept my word, they will keep yours also. But they will do all these things to you on account of my name, because they do not know him who sent me.”
Bible Quotation For Today/ Peter asked, ‘why has Satan filled your heart to lie to the Holy Spirit and to keep back part of the proceeds of the land?
Acts of the Apostles 05/01-11: “But a man named Ananias, with the consent of his wife Sapphira, sold a piece of property; with his wife’s knowledge, he kept back some of the proceeds, and brought only a part and laid it at the apostles’ feet. ‘Ananias,’ Peter asked, ‘why has Satan filled your heart to lie to the Holy Spirit and to keep back part of the proceeds of the land? While it remained unsold, did it not remain your own? And after it was sold, were not the proceeds at your disposal? How is it that you have contrived this deed in your heart? You did not lie to us but to God!’Now when Ananias heard these words, he fell down and died. And great fear seized all who heard of it. The young men came and wrapped up his body, then carried him out and buried him. After an interval of about three hours his wife came in, not knowing what had happened. Peter said to her, ‘Tell me whether you and your husband sold the land for such and such a price.’ And she said, ‘Yes, that was the price.’Then Peter said to her, ‘How is it that you have agreed together to put the Spirit of the Lord to the test? Look, the feet of those who have buried your husband are at the door, and they will carry you out.’ Immediately she fell down at his feet and died. When the young men came in they found her dead, so they carried her out and buried her beside her husband. And great fear seized the whole church and all who heard of these things.
Berri Calls for 25th Electoral Session in Spite of Low Attendance
Naharnet /03.06.15/Speaker Nabih Berri adjourned Wednesday the 24th time in a row a parliamentary session set to elect a new head of state over lack of quorum. Berri said that the new session will be held on June 24. Only 32 lawmakers arrived at the parliament. Lebanon has been suffering from a presidential vacuum since President Michel Suleiman’s six-year term ended on May 25 last year, the longest time the post has been vacant since the devastating civil war ended in 1990. The next session is also likely to meet the fate of of its predecessors if the rival parties failed to agree on a consensual candidate.Hizbullah and Free Patriotic Movement leader MP Michel Aoun’s Change and Reform bloc have been boycotting electoral sessions due to a disagreement with the March 14 alliance over a compromise presidential candidate.
Salam holds ‘fruitful’ talks with Saudi king
Mirella Hodeib| The Daily Star/Jun. 03, 2015/JEDDAH, Saudi Arabia: Saudi King Salman’s meeting Wednesday with a Lebanese delegation headed by Prime Minister Tammam Salam was “fruitful,” the Saudi ambassador to Lebanon said. “King Salman emphasized clearly and loudly cohesive efforts to protect Lebanon from the repercussions of regional events,” Ali Awad Asiri, who traveled with the Lebanese delegation to Jeddah, told The Daily Star. Asiri said the king told his visitors that it is important for the Lebanese to do their best to elect a president as soon as possible. He also called on all political parties to overcome their differences to protect Lebanon from regional turmoil, namely the conflict in Syria, Asiri said. Salman’s comments signal Riyadh’s support for dialogue between rivals Hezbollah and the Future Movement. The Saudi monarch was very “explicit” in his support of Lebanon’s stability and went into the details of Lebanese-Saudi ties over the past few decades. According to Asiri, the purpose of the visit was to “bolster” and “institutionalize” Lebanese-Saudi relations. “It’s high time Lebanese-Saudi ties become more efficient and more tangible,” he said, adding that the ties must eventually endure regardless of changes in Saudi Arabia or Lebanon. “It’s time for a more practical and progressive approach that is anchored in the institutions.” Asked whether there was a possibility of a thaw in relations between Riyadh and Hezbollah, the ambassador said this might happen once Hezbollah starts working for what he described as the welfare and interests of Lebanon. “But Hezbollah’s behavior [so far] doesn’t make me optimistic.” Separately Wednesday, former Prime Minister Saad Hariri hosted Salam for lunch, which was also attended by Foreign Minister Gebran Bassail, Interior Minister Nouhad Machnouk, Defense Minister Samir Moqbel, Health Minister Wael Abu Faour and Minister of Youth and Sports Abdul-Muttaleb al-Hinawi. Salam had also met with Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Nayef and Hariri Tuesday. A statement said the meeting addressed means to promote bilateral relations between Lebanon and Saudi Arabia, and touched on developments at the regional and international levels.Before heading to Beirut later Wednesday, Salam will meet members of the Lebanese community at the new Lebanese consulate in Jeddah.
Berri Snaps Back at Aoun over Appointments Row
Naharnet/03.06.15/Speaker Nabih Berri has stressed that the cabinet would not collapse over a dispute on security and military appointments despite threats made by Free Patriotic Movement leader MP Michel Aoun. “Even if some (parties) were absent (from the cabinet), it will remain constitutional,” Berri’s visitors quoted him as saying. “They are doing the same thing they did to the parliament,” the speaker said in reference to Aoun’s threats. “No one is bigger than his country.”MPs from Aoun’s Change and Reform bloc in addition to Hizbullah and other March 8 alliance lawmakers have been boycotting parliamentary sessions aimed at electing a head of state. Asked whether the government will turn into a caretaker if the FPM and Hizbullah ministers boycotted its meetings, Berri said: “It depends on Prime Minister (Tammam) Salam’s stance.”“I believe everyone will be damaged and I think that the boycotting parties will return (to the cabinet) after two or three sessions,” he added. Berri’s remarks were published in local dailies on Wednesday.
Aoun said following the weekly meeting of his Change and Reform bloc on Tuesday that the government should go on vacation until September if it will not appoint new security and military chiefs.He has repeatedly warned the government against extending the terms of the army and Internal Security Forces chiefs, deeming it illegal. He allegedly backs the appointment of his son-in-law, Commando Regiment chief Brig. Gen. Chamel Roukoz, as army commander. Military chief Gen. Jean Qahwaji is set to retire on September 23.
Report: PSP, Hizbullah in Contact to Avert Repercussions of Cabinet Paralysis
Naharnet/03.06.15/The Progressive Socialist Party kicked off contacts with Hizbullah to tackle the possible scenarios if the cabinet was paralyzed due to the sharp rift between ministers over the controversy of appointments of high-ranking security officials at state posts.
Al-Mustaqbal newspaper reported on Wednesday that the PSP underlined the available options to manage the cabinet paralysis if Free Patriotic Movement leader MP Michel Aoun went ahead with his threats and boycotted the government sessions.
Sources close to the PSP, which is led by MP Walid Jumblat, told the daily that Hizbullah officials didn’t express reservations over the proposals. The PSP reportedly suggested that Prime Minister Tammam Salam should continue to hold daily ministerial meetings to run the affairs of the state. The Higher Defense Council will also have to hold periodic meetings to follow up on the security developments and maintain stability, and ministers should cooperate with the premier and ink decrees that don’t need the approval of the cabinet. The proposals suggested by the PSP surfaced as Aoun threatened Tuesday after his Change and Reform bloc meeting that his ministers will boycott cabinet sessions until the appointments dilemma is resolved. He slammed the cabinet, saying that the government should go on vacation until September if it will not appoint new security and military chiefs. He has repeatedly warned the government against extending the terms of the army and Internal Security Forces chiefs, deeming it illegal. He allegedly backs the appointment of his son-in-law, Commando Regiment chief Brig. Gen. Chamel Roukoz, as army commander. Military chief Gen. Jean Qahwaji is set to retire on September 23, while ISF chief Major General Ibrahim Basbous is set to retire on June 4.
Al-Nusra Front Says ‘Manipulators’ Forced Suspension of Negotiations on Hostages
Naharnet/03.06.15/Al-Qaida-linked al-Nusra Front denied on Wednesday that there was progress in the negotiations to release Lebanese hostages in a prisoner swap, saying the talks have been suspended. The jihadists addressed the relatives of the hostages on their twitter account, saying: “Reports that the negotiations between us and General Security chief Maj. Gen. Abbas Ibrahim have been (successfully) completed are not true.” The talks to release the captive servicemen “have been suspended because of the manipulation of mediators from the Lebanese side,” they said. “We hope that the negotiations file would move to safe hands. We had previously proposed the formation of a committee from the hostages families to oversee the negotiations process,” al-Nusra Front added. The group has in its captivity 16 soldiers and policemen, while nine remain held by the Islamic State extremist group. The servicemen were taken hostage in the wake of clashes in the northeastern border town of Arsal in August last year. A few of them have since been released and four were executed. Reports have said that the negotiations with IS jihadists have stalled over their crippling demands. Al-Nusra Front’s announcement on Wednesday came a day after Ibrahim expressed relief over the progress in the mediation with the jihadist group. “The Qatari intelligence is mediating the timing of conducting the deal” with al-Nusra Front, Ibrahim said. Diplomatic sources told As Safir newspaper that Qatari officials were in shuttle diplomacy with the representatives of the group, in particular in Turkey. The negotiations included the details of the prisoners swap deal, the sources said, revealing that Qatari intelligence chief Ghanim al-Kubaisi could visit Lebanon soon. Al-Akhbar newspaper also said Tuesday that negotiations are touching on the names of prisoners, who will be released according to the agreement. Information obtained by the daily said that the Lebanese Army leadership received a list that included the names of 50 prisoners, including Joumana Hmeid
Bkirki Says Rahi Will not Meet Syrian Officials in Damascus
Naharnet/03.06.15/The seat of the Maronite church announced on Wednesday that Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi will not hold talks with Syrian officials during his visit to Damascus next week. Bkirki’s press officer Walid Ghayyad said the June 8 trip is “pastoral and will not include any political meetings.”Al-Rahi’s visit to the Syrian capital has three objectives – Inaugurating the Maronite Social Center, participating in a Christian spiritual summit and attending the inauguration of the Orthodox patriarchate, he added. This will not be the first time that al-Rahi travels to Damascus as a patriarch. He visited the Syrian capital around two years ago when he attended Greek Orthodox leader Youhanna X Yazigi’s enthronement.
Asiri Denies Saudi Arabia Delaying Arms Deal: We Will Not Back Down
Naharnet/03.06.15/Saudi Ambassador to Lebanon Ali Awadh Asiri downplayed Wednesday reports that his country froze a grant to the Lebanese army to purchase French weapons. “The kingdom will not modify, change or back down” on the agreement, Asiri said in comments published in al-Mustaqbal newspaper. Asiri stressed that he didn’t receive any instructions in this regard. “If the issue is technical and related to discussions between the Lebanese Army and French authorities or any other course linked to the delivery of arms, then the kingdom has nothing to do with that,” Asiri stressed. As Safir newspaper reported Tuesday that Saudi Arabia decided to freeze the deal over the rhetoric by some Lebanese officials, in particular Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, over it air-led war against Shiite Huthi rebels in Yemen. French diplomatic sources said that France’s chief of Staff General Jean-Pierre Bosser expressed belief that Saudi Arabia is delaying the accomplishment of the second delivery of French arms. Saudi Arabia is leading an Arab coalition that launched an air war on the Huthi rebels and their allies in Yemen on March 26. Nasrallah had slammed Saudi Arabia as the source of the “takfiri ideology” in the world, vowing that it will suffer a “major defeat” in the Yemeni conflict. Sources told al-Joumhouria newspaper Wednesday that the “Saudi grant didn’t halt and the reports are baseless.” “The delay is due to a demand by the Lebanese Army to purchase heavy weapons… which need time to be manufactured.”As Safir said in its report that Lebanese officials were supposed to schedule a new arms delivery with French counterparts to ship the second batch of arms. However, Army chief General Jean Qahwaji, who visited Paris at the end of May, was surprised that French officials stalled the signing ceremony. But Qahwaji denied making any statement concerning the matter. In April, Lebanon received the first shipment of $3 billion worth of French arms under a Saudi-financed deal to boost the country’s defensive capabilities to combat terror threats, along its northeastern border in particular. France is expected to deliver 250 combat and transport vehicles, seven Cougar helicopters, three small Corvette warships and a range of surveillance and communications equipment over four years as part of the $3 billion (2.8 billion-euro) modernization program. It is being entirely funded by Saudi Arabia, which is keen to see Lebanon’s army defend its borders against jihadist groups, particularly the IS group and al-Nusra Front.
Longtime Christian foes choose detente
Hashem Osseiran| The Daily Star/ Jun. 03, 2015 |
BEIRUT: Rival Christian political leaders Samir Geagea and Michel Aoun announced Tuesday a thaw in their decades-old rivalry, issuing a joint statement urging the election of a strong president. A highly anticipated declaration of intent announced Tuesday outlined 16 general points of agreement between the rival parties on certain key issues such as the need to elect a “strong president” that is representative of Christians and is accepted by Lebanon’s Muslim community.The election of a president and the drafting of a new electoral law, according to the historic accord, would redirect the wrongful implementation of the National Pact by realizing proper national partnership between Muslims and Christians. Bitter rivals whose leaders engaged in a bloody conflict in the final year of Lebanon’s 1975-90 Civil War, the Lebanese Forces and Free Patriotic Movement have held a series of dialogue sessions over the past six months which culminated in Tuesday’s meeting and declaration.
The gathering of the two party leaders was seen as a crucial step to ending the country’s year-long presidential impasse, given that both Aoun and Geagea are candidates, but neither has been able to garner enough parliamentary support to win.“I wished this meeting happened 30 years ago but it’s better late than never,” a gleeful Geagea said after meeting Aoun in the FPM leader’s Rabieh residence. The LF chief asserted that the meeting with Aoun sought to bridge a gap between “two large political forces that if brought together could achieve positive change in Lebanon.” “We were not happy with the [recent] stage in our relationship, and we needed to exit this point [in order] to move on to a better stage,” he said. “Some people think that this meeting is the end of our dialogue, but honestly this is only the start.”Geagea said the past six months of preparatory talks set the groundwork for improving decades of thorny ties between the two groups, noting that today the relationship would “start at zero and the real work will begin from here onward.”“We are going to exercise our full efforts so this attempt doesn’t fail,” he said. “Issues that we agree on will be good and any differences we have will be put aside for a later stage.”He said the declaration of intent wasn’t easy to reach but noted that it reflected the positive dynamic that was starting to exist between the two parties.An unusually buoyant Aoun also spoke briefly after the meeting, saying Geagea’s surprise visit crowned a phase that some people say has taken too long to reach.He said that dialogue between the rival parties was a gift to Christians who were anxious over the situation in the country.
“The Christians are more relaxed, and you will see more ease in the coming phase,” Aoun said. When asked about whether the fate of the Lebanese presidency was to be determined by regional powers like Saudi Arabia or Iran, Aoun said that “in the end the decision is ours.”The official document of intent, which was relayed by FPM MP Ibrahim Kanaan and LF media officer Melhem Riachi after the meeting, also involved an agreement on supporting the Lebanese Army and reinforcing legitimate security forces in a manner that would allow for them to exert the state’s full control over all Lebanese territory.The accord cited the keenness of both parties on securing Lebanon’s border with Syria and their rejection of using Lebanese territory as a corridor for the trafficking of weapons and militants.
The document concludes by noting that the new relationship between the LF and the FPM would be based on a mutual respect of democratic principles, whereby agreement on constitutional and democratic codes would surpass any existing political rivalry.
The statement confirmed both parties’ will to achieve partnership and their insistence on continuing communication in all possible outlets.
Leading by example
The Daily Star/Jun. 03, 2015/Tuesday’s meeting between Michel Aoun and Samir Geagea is important, primarily for the Christians of Lebanon, but it should serve as an example to all others in Parliament. The Free Patriotic Movement and Lebanese Forces leaders, with divergent opinions on so many key issues, have shown that where there is a genuine will to broker peace, or at least amity, then with another dialogue that can be achieved. This partial rapprochement is good news for the Christians of Lebanon, but it is also positive news for all citizens, of every sect and of every political persuasion. For the chasm between these two parties has been largely responsible for stalling many political processes, not least of all the election of a new president, or the hiring of new Army and intelligence chiefs. The fact that this new relationship was cultivated within Lebanon, by Lebanese parties, and without any external brokerage or sponsorship is also crucial, and should be applauded. Stressing the need to protect Lebanon’s borders and security, it is hoped that this latest meeting will usher in a new atmosphere wherein senior political figures of all stripes realize the urgent need for Lebanon to commit to protecting itself, by itself. This is not to say that the two now agree on every issue, but they have both committed themselves – and their parties – to continued discussions on many topics. They have also expressed their commitment to working within the limits of the constitution. Hopefully this latest meeting will lay the foundations for a new era of Lebanese politics, where all partners in government and in Parliament can put their differences aside.
Cyprus Official: Ammonium Nitrate Cache of Lebanese Suspect under Surveillance
Naharnet/03.06.15/The home of a man in Cyprus where police seized five tons of a chemical compound that can be turned into an explosive had been kept under surveillance for some time before officers moved in, a government official said Wednesday. Authorities put the Larnaca home in their sights after being tipped off, Justice Minister Ionas Nicolaou told The Associated Press, without revealing the source. Police are holding the 26-year-old Lebanese-Canadian man in connection with the seizure. He faces charges of conspiracy to commit a criminal offense and possession and transportation of explosives. A security official told the AP that the suspect arrived in Cyprus on May 21st and that authorities are also searching for the man who owns the home, in connection with the case.It’s unclear what use was intended for the cache of ammonium nitrate, which was stored in about 420 boxes. The official said the suspect is denying the charges and isn’t cooperating with authorities, which are investigating whether he’s linked to Hizbullah. The suspect is due to appear in court Thursday for renewal of his detention order. In his first court appearance last week, the judge ordered the proceedings to be closed to the public after a request by the state prosecutor. In 2013, a Cyprus court sentenced a Swedish-Lebanese man who admitted he was a Hizbullah member to four years in prison after finding him guilty of helping to plan attacks on Israelis in Cyprus. No Israelis were attacked. Associated Press
Gambia expels Lebanese businessman accused of Hezbollah ties
Jun. 03, 2015/Reuters/BANJUL: A Lebanese businessman accused by the United States of providing financial support to Hezbollah left Gambia at the weekend in compliance with an expulsion order, government sources said. Husayn Tajideen, known locally as an importer of rice and flour to the small West African country, was accused of “unacceptable business practices that are detrimental to the Gambian economy,” state television said last week.It added that he had 30 days to close all local businesses. Tajideen was not immediately reachable for comment. Staff at a supermarket that serves as one of his main businesses in Gambia declined to comment on his expulsion. Tajideen’s family has in the past denied accusations that some of its businesses serve as fronts for Hezbollah.
The United States accuses Tajideen and two brothers of running an African business network reaching as far as Angola and Democratic Republic of Congo that helps finance Hezbollah. Gambia ordered Tajideen’s expulsion once before in 2013, accusing him of profiteering, although he later received a presidential pardon for unclear reasons. It was not immediately clear if the other two brothers are residents of Gambia. On Monday, Trust Bank Gambia Ltd said that money transfer firm Western Union had terminated its contract with the bank, accusing it of links with an individual on an U.S. anti-terrorism list, without naming the person. The government sources said the individual in question was Tajideen. “Western Union stated that the proprietor of one of our point of sale shops was on the U.S. anti-terrorism list and, therefore, our business link with the shop contravenes the law and the rules of our agreement,” the bank said in a statement. The bank added that discussions were ongoing to renew its contract with Western Union.
Hezbollah seizes 15 positions on Arsal’s outskirts
The Daily Star/Jun. 03, 2015/BEIRUT/BAALBEK: Hezbollah fighters Wednesday seized at least 15 positions from militants on the outskirts of a volatile northeastern border town, killing at least 11 militants, a security source said. The source told The Daily Star Hezbollah fighters captured positions on the northern and southern outskirts of Lebanon’s Arsal along the porous mountain range on Syria’s western border. Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah last month vowed to oust jihadi militants from Arsal’s outskirts if the Lebanese Army failed to take action, sparking a heated debate between political rivals. The party’s opponents in Lebanon have demanded that Hezbollah stay clear of Arsal and its outskirts, describing the region as a red line. Hezbollah’s Al-Manar TV said Wednesday Hezbollah fighters had seized control over Jabal al-Zaroub and Wadi Abu Daher, in addition to several other positions on Arsal’s outskirts. They also captured positions south of the border town, the report said, including the strategic Al-Sharouq peak. That position overlooks the areas of Al-Rahwe, Wadi al-Khayl and Wadi Atneen, allowing Hezbollah to target militant bases in the southern portion of the town’s outskirts. The party pounded militant positions in the area, destroying three armed vehicles belonging to the Nusra Front, Al-Manar reported, adding that jihadis fled en masse. It said the militants set fire to their tents before fleeing. Following Hezbollah’s offensive, militants retreated in the direction of Arsal’s southern outskirts, particularly the areas of Wadi Atneen and Wadi al-Khayl, Al-Manar said. The report said those two areas host the Nusra Front’s central command for Qalamoun. Another security source in Baalbek said Wednesday’s push appeared to be an attempt by Hezbollah to regain control over hilltop positions that Syria-based jihadis had briefly taken over earlier this week. The source told The Daily Star that Islamist militants have retreated to their hideouts on the outer edges of Arsal after engaging Hezbollah in a firefight Monday. Hezbollah and the Syrian army launched an offensive early last month in Qalamoun, capturing dozens of militant bases and driving the jihadis north toward Arsal’s outskirts. Thousands of jihadi fighters affiliated with ISIS, the Nusra Front and other groups have been planted in Arsal’s outskirts since last spring. In August, the militants briefly overran Arsal, sparking a five-day battle with the Army that left dozens dead.More than 30 soldiers and policemen were taken hostage during the battle, of whom 25 remain in captivity on the town’s outskirts.
Sami Gemayel declares candidacy for Kataeb Party chief, urges Muslim membership
The Daily Star/Jun. 03, 2015/BEIRUT: MP Sami Gemayel announced Wednesday he was running for president of the Kataeb Party, two weeks after his father and current party chief Amine announced he would not seek another term in elections scheduled for later this month. “The Kataeb party is a Lebanese project,” Gemayel told a crowd of supporters, outlining his vision for an inclusive party open to Muslim members. “And because it is a Lebanese project, then it is not sectarian, and should be open to all Lebanese sects.”The MP said that he will exercise all efforts to show Muslims that Kataeb, which was once seen as one of the most sectarian collectives in Lebanon, is open to their membership, noting that he is seeking to reform the Christian party into a pluralistic entity.A new president, along with members of the party’s political bureau and other officials, will be elected on June 15 when the Kataeb Party is due to hold its 30th general conference. Outlining his vision for the future of the party, Gemayel said that he will seek to unite forces currently in the party and members the party had lost in an effort to bolster it. He noted that the party would be open to ties and dialogue with its rivals as long the exchange is based on mutual respect and honesty. “The Kataeb party during all previous difficult times has revolted against the status quo,” he said, urging a “new revolution,” against the deteriorating domestic situation. This new revolution, according to the MP, should reject political parties’ dependency on foreign patrons and the wrongful political practices exercised by the ruling class. This new force, he added, should also reject any attempts to drag Lebanon into further conflicts, be it domestically or with neighboring states. The Kataeb Party was notorious during Lebanon’s 1975-1990 Civil War for its sectarian killings, including its role in the 1982 Sabra-Shatila massacre. Following the death of party founder Pierre Gemayel in 1984, Georges Saade, Munir Hajj and Karim Pakradouni each led the party before Amine Gemayel was elected Kataeb president in 2007.Sami Gemayel is seen as his father’s likely successor.
Sami Gemayel Formally Announces Candidacy for Kataeb Party Leadership
Naharnet /03.06.15/MP Sami Gemayel announced on Wednesday his nomination for the presidency of the Kataeb party. He declared during a press conference: “Because I believe that the Kataeb has the power to introduce change, I have decided to run for the presidency of the party.” The Kataeb has an economic and social plan for Lebanon that would once again give the people hope, he added. “If elected its president, I will attempt to prove to all Lebanese that the Kataeb adopts an agenda and a project for Lebanon,” he remarked. “If elected its president, I will ensure that the party has no room for corrupt people,” stressed Gemayel, while emphasizing the importance of honest practices. The party should set an example to all people and parties, he declared to applause by the gatherers. “The Kataeb party will be open to all sides and open to cooperating with all rival parties, while still adhering to its values,” the MP said. “These dealings and dialogues will be based on mutual respect, honesty, and truth,” he said. “The Kataeb is open to all Lebanese from all over Lebanon and regardless of their sect. It is open to all youths who seek Lebanon’s interests,” he stated. “The party should lead the wave that rejects corruption and linking Lebanon to regional conflicts,” he said. “It is a Lebanese party, which is made in Lebanon, and which adopts a Lebanese agenda,” he stressed. “We will not place the interests of individuals above the interests of Lebanon,” Gemayel added. “It should lead a revolt against the current fragmentation of the state. The party should once again rise to the forefront in Lebanon,” he stated.
The Kataeb’s new project will not be based on relying on foreign powers, he said. “We have had long experience with relying on foreign powers. Those who are doing so today will be proven wrong,” he stated. In May, Amin Gemayel, Sami’s father, announced that he will not be running for a new term at the head of the party. He has been the head of the party since February 2008.
Girault Returns to Lebanon as Presidential Crisis Hits Dead End
Naharnet /03.06.15/The Director of the Department of the Middle East and North Africa at the French Foreign Ministry is expected to return to Lebanon Wednesday in a visit that comes three months after a similar trip. Jean-François Girault will reportedly continue endeavors to lessen the rift between the political arch-foes over the lingering presidential crisis. According to An Nahar newspaper, Girault is on a double mission in Beirut as he will try to mend the gap between the presidential candidates during his meetings with Lebanese officials and nominees and he will also chair a meeting for French ambassadors in the region. The visit of the French diplomat coincides with that of Papal envoy to Lebanon former Foreign Minister Monsignor Dominique Mamberti, who has been in Lebanon since last week.
He arrived on Friday in Lebanon on a 7-day official visit as the Vatican is seeking to press forward the election of a new head of state amid the sharp rift among the political rivals over a consensual candidate. His visit comes in light of Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi’s visit to Paris in May, where he met with French President Francois Hollande. Media reports had said that France, the Vatican and al-Rahi are synchronizing their efforts to end the presidential vacuum. Girault expressed pessimism over the protracting presidential vacuum during his last visit in February, considering an imminent breakthrough is not possible. Lebanon has been without a president since May last year when the term of Michel Suleiman ended without the election of his successor. Ongoing disputes between the rival March 8 and 14 camps have thwarted the elections. The French diplomat had been in shuttle diplomacy where he held talks in Riyadh, Tehran, Washington and the Vatican over the presidential crisis. The contract also promises seven years of training for the 70,000-strong Lebanese army and 10 years of equipment maintenance. Since the conflict in neighboring Syria broke out in 2011, Lebanon has faced mounting spill-over threats, first from the millions of refugees pouring across the border and increasingly from jihadists.
Iran deal ‘will reduce’ nuclear enrichment
(Reuters)AFP, Doha/Wednesday, 3 June 2015
A nuclear deal with Iran will significantly reduce Tehran’s enrichment capacity, U.S. Vice-President Joe Biden’s national security adviser told a conference in Qatar on Monday. Dr. Colin H. Kahl, speaking at the U.S.-Islamic World Forum in Doha, said the current deal being hammered out was the best on offer, despite many skeptical voices in the U.S. and elsewhere, including Gulf Arab states. “Under the deal we are negotiating… Iran’s enrichment capability will be substantially rolled back,” said Kahl. “The deal we are negotiating makes us and the region safer.”The ongoing talks to finalize a nuclear accord between Iran and world powers, including the United States, are deadlocked weeks ahead of a deadline. Negotiations at the weekend in Geneva, Switzerland, failed to bridge differences between Washington and Tehran, especially over the crucial issue of inspections of military sites. Other sticking points remain, including the possible military dimensions of the Iranian nuclear program and the demands by the P5+1 group for U.N. inspections of Iranian military bases.
A deadline has been set for June 30 to reach a ground-breaking agreement that would see Iran curtail its nuclear ambitions in return for a lifting of crippling international sanctions. After three decades of enmity, any accord would pave the way to bringing Iran back into the international fold and potentially create fresh impetus to resolve a host of conflicts in the Middle East. On April 2, Iran and the “P5+1” — as the US and its partners are known — agreed to the main outlines of a nuclear deal, with Tehran agreeing to rein in and mothball large sections of its atomic program. But differences remain, with both the United States and Iran under immense pressure from hardliners not to make major concessions. Since the April 2 accord, technical experts have been meeting behind the scenes to overcome the remaining issues. But many of the decisions now need to be made at a political level. Following talks last weekend, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry broke a leg while cycling but advisers said the accident would not slow the globe-trotting diplomat. Kahl said on Monday that “today” it would take Iran two-to-three months to produce enough fissile material for one bomb. But despite criticism he said a negotiated settlement was the best solution. “In the absence of comprehensive agreement to deal with this challenge and constrain Iran’s program, Iran would likely install and begin operating tens of thousands of fissile centrifuges in the near future,” he added. The forum is a three-day long conference involving politicians, policy advisers and academics from across the Middle East and the United States.
Iranian Rev Guards ready to intervene in Syria to save Assad. Soleimani: Expect major events in Syria
DEBKAfile Special Report June 3, 2015
Tehran is believed to be preparing to dispatch a substantial Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) special operations unit to Syria to tackle the separate rebel and ISIS advances closing in on the Assad regime, Western and Arab intelligence sources report. They say the Syrian army is already setting aside an area in northern Syria for the Iranian troops to take up position.
If this happens, debkafile’s military sources note that it would be the Revolutionary Guards first direct intervention in the nearly five-year Syrian war. Up until now, Tehran has carefully avoided putting Iranian boots on the ground in both Syria and Iraq. The only place where Iranian forces are directly engaged in battle is at Iraq’s main refinery town of Baiji, where small infantry and artillery units have been trying – without success thus far – to dislodge ISIS forces from the refinery complex.
In the other Syrian and Iraqi war arenas – and elsewhere – Tehran follows the practice of using local Shiite militias as surrogates to fight its wars, providing them with training and arms. The Guards have also brought Shiite militias over from Pakistan and Afghanistan.
That Tehran is about to change course to save Bashar Assad was indicated in a surprise statement Tuesday, June 2 by Gen. Qassem Soleimani, supreme commander of Iranian forces fighting outside the country. After urgent consultations in Damascus with President Assad and his military chiefs, the Iranian general said enigmatically that “major developments” are to be expected in Syria “in the next few days.” Another source quotes him more fully as saying: “In the next few days, the world will be pleasantly surprised [by the arrangements] we [the IRGC] working with Syrian military commanders are currently preparing.”
debkafile, which Sunday, May 31, exclusively disclosed Soleimani’s post-haste arrival in Damascus, now reports from its military sources that Hizballah military chiefs were summoned to Damascus to attend those consultations. On his way to the Syrian capital, those sources also reveal that the Iranian general stopped over at the Anbar warfront in western Iraq near the Syrian border.
The IRGC expeditionary force, according to Gulf sources, will have to initial objectives to recover Jisr al-Shughour in northwestern Syria and Palmyra. The first has been taken over by Syrian rebels of the Army of Conquest, a band of Sunni militias sponsored by the United States, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Qatar; the second was captured by the Islamic State last month.
The recovery of the two cities and their return to Syrian government control would deflect the immediate threats posed by opposition and Islamist forces to the highways from Homs to Damascus and the Mediterranean port of Latakia. This, in turn, would relieve the Assad regime of much of the military pressure threatening its survival.
In contrast to Obama’s claim, PM, Netanyahu points out report that Iran’s stockpile of uranium is increasing By HERB KEINON/06/03/2015/A day after US President Barack Obama told the Israeli public in his Channel 2 interview that Iran’s stockpile of very highly enriched uranium “is gone,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that in fact it is precisely those stockpiles that are increasing and very threatening to Israel. “There are reports now that Iran continues to grow its nuclear stockpile as the negotiations proceed,” Netanyahu said at the opening of a meeting with visiting New Zealand Prime Minister Murray McCully.
Netanyahu said if this development is added together with Iran’s continued development of long range ballistic missiles, its world wide terrorist web, its support for rocket attacks on Israel, its activities in Yemen, and the fact that it violates all Security Council resolutions dealing with it, then it all amounts to a serious peace and security challenge in the region. In contrast to Obama’s statement, the International Atomic Energy Agency issued a report last week saying that Iran’s stockpile has increased over the last 18 months, with the New York Times reporting that the stockpile has increase by some 20%. New Zealand is currently a temporary member of the 15-nation UN Security Council, and will serve as that body’s president for a month in July. New Zealand is expected to join France before September in proposing a resolution calling for the parameters of a two state solution, and a deadline for the establishment of a Palestinian state and an Israeli withdrawal from the territories. Netanyahu wished McCully “a lot of luck” heading the Security Council. “The main thing we have learned,” he said “ is that peace is achieved as we did with Jordan and with Egypt through direct negotiations between parties, and not by fiat – it just doesn’t work that way. I hope it works, but it has to work through direct negotiations.”
All Islamic Extremism is Unacceptable Tarek Fatah/The Toronto Sun
June 2, 2015 http://www.meforum.org/5286/all-islamic-extremism-unacceptable
On Sunday, over 700 Canadians braved unseasonal cold and non-stop rain for four hours outside an Islamic centre north of Toronto. They came to protest a bizarre celebration honouring the life and deeds of the late Iranian theocratic dictator, Ayatollah Khomeini.
There were politicians from the left to the right, writers, poets, artists, former prisoners and exiles, grandmothers, refugees, victims of torture. They were mostly Iranian Canadians, but also Pakistanis, Jews, Kurds, orthodox Muslims, Marxists and Monarchists.
Inside the sprawling mosque other Canadians were bused in to participate in the macabre display of contempt for life and liberty. It was encouraging to hear Liberal MPP Reza Moridi praise Prime Minister Harper for his stand against Iran. Such bipartisanship is rare. Denunciation of the Khomeini celebrations came from across the political spectrum, including Defence Minister Jason Kenney. He tweeted: “Disturbing to see anyone in Canada celebrating the murderous depravity of Ayatollah Khomeini’s brutal dictatorship.”
Misogyny, homophobia, anti-Semitism and cursing of non-Muslims are routine at Islamist centres across Canada. But there is another reality that does not bode well for our country. After all, there are other Islamist centres across Canada where misogyny, homophobia, anti-Semitism and cursing of non-Muslims and secular Muslims are routine. Yet politicians of all stripes shrug in the face of these facts, embracing those who would want to see a caliphate in Canada, with sharia law as this country’s constitution.
The difference being, these mosques are pro-Saudi Arabia and the Muslim Brotherhood, rather than pro-Iran and the ayatollahs. Apparently politicians have determined embracing pro-Saudi Islamists can generate votes while rejecting pro-Iran Islamists will cost almost none. Why else would NDP leader Thomas Mulcair in March visit the Islamic Society of North America (ISNA) mosque in Mississauga and declare: “For years, this mosque has played a vital role in Mississauga — promoting education and charity for all. And it’s been a leader in promoting unity—a lesson so important to the Prophet Mohammed, peace be upon him”?Perhaps Mulcair isn’t aware of a 2005 story in the Globe and Mail identifying millions of dollars worth of Saudi funding to the ISNA mosque where he spoke. (The Globe reported the funding was touted on the ISNA’s website although a spokesman officially denied it.)Or a 2013 Toronto Star story on the Canada Revenue Agency revoking the charitable status of the ISNA Development Foundation after concluding it “facilitated the transfer of (charitable) resources that may have been used to support the efforts of a political organization . . . and its armed wing,” in Pakistan. (The charity denied the allegation.) Or that the parent organization of ISNA in the U.S. has been listed by the U.S. Justice Department as an “unindicted co-conspirator” in a terror funding trial. ISNA was never charged with any crime, but prosecutors listed it as one of the “entities who are and/or were members of the U.S. Muslim Brotherhood.” (A federal judge later ruled the document should not have been released and ISNA said its inclusion was guilt by association.) In 2013, Liberal leader Justin Trudeau spent an evening at ISNA’s Islamic Centre with the congregation during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan. This same organization Mulcair and Trudeau embraced recently refused to allow its boys’ school soccer team to play against a Catholic school team with two girls on it. Does this mean Islamism Saudi-style is fine, while Islamism, Khomeini-style is not? Canadians need to put this question to all three political party leaders before this fall’s election. Tarek Fatah is a founder of the Muslim Canadian Congress, a columnist at the Toronto Sun, and a Robert J. and Abby B. Levine Fellow at the Middle East Forum. He is the author of two award-winning books: Chasing a Mirage: The Tragic Illusion of an Islamic State and The Jew is Not My Enemy: Unveiling the Myths that Fuel Muslim Anti-Semitism.
Aleppo, Homs and Damascus: Who Will Control Syria When Assad Withdraws?
Middle East Briefing/ 03/06/15 http://mebriefing.com/?p=1720
The features of ISIL Islamic State are rapidly being engraved on the rocks and sands of Iraq and Syria while the whole world is watching almost helplessly. After consolidating its recent territorial gains, ISIL’s menu consists now of the battle of Aleppo followed by the battle for Damascus. There is a high probability that ISIL is also eyeing Homs, even before these two big cities. In a pattern that has now become familiar, signs of mobilization and infiltration around the two cities have shown a rapid increase recently. We will lay out here the expected dynamics of the battles for the two major Syrian cities and the available ways to avoid their falling under the control of ISIL. But first, a couple of words about the general context of the confrontations on the ground in Syria. Syrian army forces are preparing to pull out of Dair Al Zour in their implementation of the dictated Iranian Plan B. This plan, which we described in detail in “Middle East Briefing” of May 11th, is simple: Iran and Hezbollah will not continue footing the bills for Bashar Al Assad’s insistence that he is the President of all Syria. They will restrict their support to the Syrian forces defending defensible areas in the West that is strategically important to them, in order to avoid the current war of attrition. However, Al Assad prefers to leave the regime’s areas that fall out of the new Iranian lines of demarcation to ISIL, not to the non-ISIL opposition forces. This is a continuation of Assad’s method of focusing on the elimination of the non-ISIL opposition in order to present himself as the only antidote to the terrorist group. Assad hopes that the world will ultimately knock on his doors to ally with him in fighting ISIL.
The retreat of the regime forces creates a new paradigm in the Syrian crisis. The central issue is the vacuum created by the withdrawal of these forces and the nature of the forces that will fill it. There are two contenders here: ISIL and the non-ISIL opposition. But a third force should be helped to play a role–the civil society in these areas. Both sides, ISIL and non-ISIL opposition, know that the moment has come when they can expand in new territories, left by Assad’s forces, relatively quickly. After gaining control of Palmyra, which was kind of given up by the regime once it was evident it would fall to ISIL, the terrorist organization, which is now in control of the vast stretch of land named Syrian Badeya or Desert, defined two axes for its next moves. The first axis is 28 miles South West of Palmyra. The second, not related to Palmyra per se, is Aleppo. It is not clear yet if Palmyra will be used as the springboard to move to the South West or if ISIL will rather go to Homs in the North West on its way to Aleppo. Both targets seem to be very important.
In terms of Homs, capturing the city will cut the connection between Damascus and the entire Northern region of the country through Route M5. This will weaken the regime’s defenses in both Aleppo and Damascus alike. As for going to the mountainous region of the South West, this could lead to the final and decisive blow to the Syrian army. The location, heavily fortified with underground bunkers, is the center of the nervous system of Syria’s military strategic forces. All missiles, chemical weapons and strategic weapons are stored there under the protection of the 18th Division of the Syrian Army. While ISIL may tend towards improving its positions around Homs and Damascus rather than attacking Division 18, the battle for Aleppo may gain priority for ISIL due to some external factors.
The regime’s positions around Aleppo have been substantially weakened under the relentless attacks by the non-ISIL forces. Officials in Damascus, under the pressure of the Iranian Plan B, are mulling over a withdrawal from the city. A plan to give the Industrial Zone on the outskirts of Aleppo to ISIL forces is being considered as a first step in abandoning the city. ISIL recently mobilized around 300 armored vehicles along an axis stretching from Al Bab, from which they run their Northern regional operations, to Jebrin, and in the vicinity of Aleppo Airport, northeast of the city.
The non-ISIL opposition, however, is better located around and in parts of the city. Yet, they do not have the massive military capabilities of ISIL. In going through all these details, it becomes obvious that the dynamics of the situation could be described as follows:
-The regime is indeed preparing to pull out from large areas designated by its backers as non-strategic and not worthy of wasting the lives of their men and the available resources. – The consequences of the Assad forces’ withdrawal pushes one question to the surface: Who will fill the vacuum? – What will happen after Assad, Hezbollah and Iranian forces concentrate their capabilities in “their” regions? In the strategically important Aleppo, there must be a decision by the US and regional powers to enable the non-ISIL forces to control the city, which is still possible for them, in return for few demands. The first is an iron clad commitment not to subject the minorities, particularly the considerable number of Armen Christians and Allawis, to any acts of revenge for their perceived support of Assad. The second is building a civilian administration in the city that should be provided with all possible assistance to start getting life back to normal while the non-ISIL forces are defending the city against ISIL. The third is to enable residents to create their own inter-sectarian networks and local forces to defend themselves. The fourth is to direct all guns, after controlling Aleppo, to fight ISIL and push its forces further east.
The civilian administration of Aleppo should be considered a strategic objective. Empowering civilians in the city will prove to be the seeds of anti-radical ideologies at a later stage. Furthermore, it will set an example of the future Syria that will emerge from the current ruins.
These conditions may seem to an exterior foreign observer as impossible to accept on the part of the non-ISIL opposition forces. Yet, there are reasons to believe that they are willingly accept them as they know they cannot run civilian administrative functions. They just need to know, through deeds, that there is a strong commitment from the Obama Administration to engage.
By engaging we do not mean putting forces on the ground. Engagement means an aerial protection that could be conducted by the Turks and supported by the US. This would provide Aleppo and its region with the protection the non-ISIL forces cannot provide. The regime is expected to use barrel bombs to punish the city once it leaves as it did, for no strategic reason whatsoever, in the case of Idlib. Accepting these conditions could be facilitated by Saudi Arabia which now backs the non-ISIL forces in the North. Aerial protection should be conditioned on implementing the mentioned conditions. Any massacres against minority civilians must be punished as they would mean the end of this safe haven area. Aleppo civilian administration and total protection of all civilians should be the price for a safe haven.
The positive elements that helps an optimistic view of the current developments are emerging. The moment the Assad forces pull out is the moment when ISIL and non-ISIL forces will fight harder to control Aleppo and the rest of the abandoned regions. This is certain, based on the their previous pattern of fights. Some kind of military force has to be empowered to control the ground. As the US administration refused to assist the non-Islamists early on in the civil war, we are faced with limited choices.
Therefore, the US administration has to take the strategic decision to do things differently after the withdrawal of Assad forces or face a terrorist organization that is larger, richer, stronger and more difficult to contain. Once ISIL controls all of Syria except the coastal enclave, it will be very difficult to defeat. Furthermore, talking then about a political solution will be nonsense.
Briefly, the name of the game now is who will fill the vacuum after Assad’s withdrawal. Non-ISIL forces are the reluctantly preferable answer. The element that should be introduced to the picture is the insistence of the US on civil administration and protection of civilians, minority and majority. It is by all means possible to reach a deal with the non-ISIL opposition on these bases.
Yet, an additional complication could be introduced to this picture, which is, if ISIL decides to attack Damascus. There are many signs which reinforce the impression that Damascus is indeed in the cross-hairs of the organization. According to leaked information from the Syrian capital, generals in Iran’s IRGC, Hezbollah and the Syrian army discussed withdrawing even from Damascus and focusing only on a limited stretch of land that guarantees the strategic interests of Iran, Hezbollah and the Alawi community on the coast.
The conclusion of these discussions is not clear known. But ISIL should be prevented from capturing Damascus at any price due to the psychological impact of such a development and the human suffering expected, particularly for minorities.
Gazing into the fog of the future, one can expect three choices related to Damascus. The first is to try a preventive step through a deal between Zahran Aloush, the non-ISIL Islamist who leads the opposition forces in the South on one hand, and the merchants of Damascus on the other, to protect the city in case the Assad coalition decides to leave it. The second is to wait for the inter-opposition fight that will certainly follow the fall of the city and hope for an agreement between the war lords related to their Modus Vivendi. The third is total chaos. The organizing principle in looking at the case of Damascus should be the State machine, in addition to the civil society that we explained in the case of Aleppo. The State machine has to be preserved and it is indeed possible to do that. It is possible, if the Administration wants to engage, to push for a kind of coordination between Aloush, who is fully backed by Saudi Arabia, and the notables of the capital city. Such a deal should focus on preserving order, keeping the civilian state structure intact; building a parallel civilian administration to take care of the population’s needs; and collectively confronting ISIL.
It is believed that the withdrawal of Assad to the coastal strip will encourage the regional backers of the non-ISIL opposition to fight ISIL in order to consolidate their control over the rest of Syria. Taking Assad out of the way will immediately push the contradictions between ISIL and non-ISIL to the front. Even if the non-ISIL groups do not fight ISIL, it will fight them. Therefore, Assad’s withdrawal will allow some time to contain the terrorist organization in Syria and force it onto the defensive. It will reduce the weight of removing Assad in the regional powers’ set of priorities and give all parties the space to breath and examine the potentials of a political deal. Assad will turn into a head of a militia. One among others. Unable to block a deal, that is if he survives the radical change in the map of his power. Therefore, and strange as it is, the withdrawal of Assad forces from large parts of Syria may provide an opportunity to galvanize all the anti-ISIL forces and mobilize them in a planned campaign to fight the terrorist organization. It just needs planning, a leading power, a serious commitment to fight terrorism, and a lot of patience and persistence. These are seemingly rare commodities in Washington today. But they are needed to shape the result of this crucial phase in the evolution of the Syrian civil war.
The question now is: who will control Syria once Assad implements the Iranian plan B? He can no longer refuse it any way. And he is indeed pulling out his forces. This huge stretch of contingent territory should not be left to ISIL. While other alternatives are prepared, ISIL should be stalled. It is a window of opportunity that may extend to 8-9 months. If the no engagement policy is sustained, ISIL will be difficult to contain. By virtue of its ideology, it will move to target those whom it considers its real enemies, in the region and in the world.
A Meeting with Golani
Diana Moukalled/Asharq Al Awsat/Wednesday, 3 Jun, 2015
Al-Jazeera’s televised interview with Al-Nusra Front leader Abu Mohammad Al-Golani has garnered controversy over whether the media should grant time and space to figures linked with terrorism. However, this is something that has taken place throughout the history of journalism. For example, Western media outlets today continue to scramble to get an interview with Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad, who is responsible for major massacres in the country, so why should we protest an interview with Golani? The issue is not about media interviews with such figures, but how they are being presented and whether they are being held accountable for their crimes. In Golani’s case, securing an interview with him may have been a scoop, but the content of the interview more closely resembled propaganda than journalism—he was not challenged or asked any difficult questions in the televised interview. This interview was between two people in total harmony. In fact, the questions implied admiration for Golani and his cause, while all his statements were sectarian in nature—despite the calm tone he spoke with and his assurances that the only aim is to topple Assad. Golani called on certain groups to abandon their religious convictions. He thinks Alawites must stop being Alawites, and Christians will be fine so long as they pay the jizya (a tax levied on non-Muslims under an Islam law system). This is Al-Nusra Front’s version of tolerance! The interview succeeded only in gaining the admiration of all those who consider the Al-Nusra Front—an Al-Qaeda affiliate, no less—to be an acceptable alternative to the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). The danger of interviews such as this is that embellishing a figure like Golani means deleting the history of the past four years. It is as if there was no revolution in Syria, as if the Syrian people did not take to the streets to demand freedom and dignity. The Golani interview implies that Syria and its people must choose between Assad, Al-Qaeda or ISIS. This is a logic that was adopted by the Assad regime from the start of the revolution that erupted in 2011.
In the past, many interviews have been held with warlords for the sake of promoting or marketing them. This has not been limited to Al-Qaeda and its affiliates, but also to “resistance” movements and regimes. However, with the embellishment of Golani’s image, it seems that terrorism—whether Sunni or Shi’ite—is still the trump card in the region. During the interview, Golani sought to reassure the West that the Al-Nusra Front it no threat. This is precisely what the Middle East’s ruling regimes did all the while depriving their peoples of freedom. Golani sought to reassure the West, but his reassurances have only created even greater concerns, particularly as there will likely be more such interviews to come.
The Islamic State’s Saudi Chess Match
Aaron Y. Zelin/Washington Institute/June 03, 2015
By attacking Shiite targets in Yemen and Saudi Arabia and potentially drawing Iran into the fray, the group is playing a complicated game aimed at delegitimizing the royal family and destabilizing the kingdom. Over the past two weeks, the so-called “Islamic State” (IS) has claimed two attacks on Shiite mosques in Saudi Arabia’s Shiite-majority Eastern Province, one in Dammam and the other in Qatif. While the incidents might not have an immediate impact on the kingdom’s overall security, they are relevant to long-term IS strategy of weakening the Saudi government by exposing its alleged hypocrisy. They also illustrate how IS has choreographed its actions in phases for its Arabian Peninsula theater. For example, when IS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi announced new wilayat (provinces) for the so-called caliphate in Saudi Arabia and Yemen last November, he told supporters that Shiites should be targeted first. And in remarks made last month, he zeroed in on the Saudi state and what he described as its failed Yemen war. The latest attacks are therefore harbingers of a wider IS threat to Saudi Islamic legitimacy.
THE ISLAMIC STATE’S CALCULUS
By attacking the Eastern Province, IS seeks to place Riyadh in the position of defending or appeasing Shiites, at the expense of a Saudi Wahhabist state ideology that does not tread too far from that of IS (e.g., Saudi schools teach students that Shiites are unbelievers and not Muslims). In that sense, the group likely considers Riyadh’s actions following the first attack a victory.In response to the May 22 suicide bombing in Qatif, Saudi Interior Ministry spokesman Maj. Gen. Mansour al-Turki stated that the goal of IS was to spread sectarianism, while Crown Prince Muhammad bin Nayef visited the town and gave condolences to the victims and their family members. Moreover, Grand Mufti Abdul Aziz ibn Abdullah al-Sheikh condemned the “criminal plot.” From the Islamic State’s perspective, such actions highlight Riyadh’s rank hypocrisy, showing “true” believers in the “land of the two holy places” how the Saudi state is contravening both God and its own founding standards. By casting themselves as the true bearers of Islam, IS leaders hope to draw more recruits and supporters.
HISTORICAL SUPPORT BASE FOR JIHADISTS
Beyond the potential for gaining new supporters, IS knows that Saudi Arabia has been a hotbed for foreign fighter and jihadist activism since the 1980s. In all of the major foreign fighter mobilizations over the past three decades (Afghanistan, Chechnya, Bosnia, Iraq, and Syria), Saudis have been the leading nationality to join up. Most important, Saudis composed the largest bulk of foreign IS members last decade when the group was calling itself al-Qaeda in Iraq, and once again in Syria and Iraq over the past couple years.
Since IS joined the Syrian jihad in April 2013, it has pushed anti-Saudi messaging through various means, including an official nashid (religiously sanctioned a cappella music), public announcements issued from its Syrian “provinces” in Raqqa (twice) and Deir al-Zour, and pictures showing words of support from inside Saudi Arabia. IS supporters also claimed responsibility for an attempted assassination of a Danish executive on a Riyadh highway last November, showing footage of the incident online.
Some may argue that IS will not succeed in shaking the monarchy, similar to the failed jihad in Saudi Arabia from 2002 to 2006. Although this scenario is definitely possible, local conditions are also quite different today. For one thing, many more Saudis are now involved with IS than there were with al-Qaeda in Saudi Arabia in the early to mid-2000s. In addition, the group has wide bases of training and operations on both sides of the kingdom’s border with Iraq, and to a lesser extent in Yemen. It also has a small yet important support base in Bahrain, in part because leading IS ideologue Turki al-Binali is Bahraini, but also because Manama has turned a blind eye to IS supporters and radical Sunnis in general — no surprise given that the island’s Sunni rulers are more worried about the Shiite majority threat to their power. Taken together, these bases could provide IS with strategic depth while also widening its war against Shiites in the region.
PROVOKING A SHIITE REACTION OVER TIME
Historically, the Shiite populations of the Persian Gulf — Saudis and Bahrainis in particular — have not been receptive to Iranian overtures in the same way as Lebanon. Yet just as Iran is now playing a larger role in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen, so too does IS hope for a similar scenario to play out in the Gulf monarchies, if only as a means of making the Saudi state look weak and convincing the Sunni populace to look to IS as their natural protectors instead. Iranian proxy networks in Iraq have already shown small signs of supporting militant networks in Bahrain — at the very least rhetorically, and perhaps materially as well. Since Riyadh deployed troops there to quash protest movements in 2011, Shiite militants on the island have been involved in a series of small-scale attacks on Bahraini state institutions, in addition to condemning the Saudi royal family and accusing it of human rights violations. They have also portrayed their familial connections with Shiites in the Eastern Province next door as an extension of their fight against the Bahraini government.
Therefore, if IS continues attacking Shiites in Saudi Arabia, it will likely hope to drive a wider wedge between them and Riyadh, spurring them to look for protection from the outside — namely from Iran, which could quickly provide such support via Hezbollah, Iraqi Shiite militant groups, and/or similar elements in Bahrain. This would put the Saudi state in a bind, forcing it to either push back against increased Iranian influence in its neighborhood or continue trying to tamp things down — a win-win situation from the Islamic State’s vantage point. This scenario may sound a bit absurd now, but many observers likewise believed that Iranian influence in Iraqi Shiite politics would never reach its current peak, so it is important to understand the worst-case developments that IS seeks to foment in Saudi Arabia. Some Shiites in the kingdom are already beginning to create “popular mobilization committees” (al-hashd al-shabi). While these groups are likely unrelated to the powerful Shiite militias of the same name in Iraq, that distinction will likely be lost on the many conservative Saudis who are already edgy about Iran and the potential for Shiite empowerment in the Eastern Province.
Of course, none of these scenarios are inevitable. The Islamic State is gambling on three outcomes: that it can push Saudi Shiites into the arms of militant networks and possibly Iran, that it can gain enough Sunni support for its project by laying bare Riyadh’s inability to follow through on its founding ideology, and that it can foster more sympathy for itself as the “true protector” of Saudi Sunnis.
CONCLUSION
The Islamic State believes it can shape future events to its advantage, and in some ways, its strategy for the first phase of its Arabian Peninsula campaign was a success. The Qatif attack was a bookend to its March attacks against four Houthi mosques in Sana, Yemen. Those incidents created a domino effect of sorts: they spurred the Houthis to move against Aden, which led the Saudis to launch their ongoing military campaign in Yemen, which in turn gave IS a wider opening for operations in Saudi Arabia due to the resources Riyadh is committing next door.
How this all plays out is difficult to predict, especially since so many aspects of regional and local politics in the Middle East have become extremely fluid. Many of the old rules have been rendered irrelevant since 2011, especially in the past year. At the very least, the Islamic State is vying to call checkmate against the Saudi state and bring about an even larger change that would further shake regional and global politics. The U.S. government should not take the latest attacks or related developments lightly. Otherwise it will once again be surprised by foreseeable outcomes that were ignored in places such as Iraq, Syria, Libya, and Yemen.
**Aaron Y. Zelin is the Richard Borow Fellow at The Washington Institute.
In contrast to Obama’s claim, PM points out report that Iran’s stockpile of uranium is increasing
By HERB KEINON/06/03/2015
A day after US President Barack Obama told the Israeli public in his Channel 2 interview that Iran’s stockpile of very highly enriched uranium “is gone,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that in fact it is precisely those stockpiles that are increasing and very threatening to Israel. “There are reports now that Iran continues to grow its nuclear stockpile as the negotiations proceed,” Netanyahu said at the opening of a meeting with visiting New Zealand Prime Minister Murray McCully.
Netanyahu said if this development is added together with Iran’s continued development of long range ballistic missiles, its world wide terrorist web, its support for rocket attacks on Israel, its activities in Yemen, and the fact that it violates all Security Council resolutions dealing with it, then it all amounts to a serious peace and security challenge in the region.
In contrast to Obama’s statement, the International Atomic Energy Agency issued a report last week saying that Iran’s stockpile has increased over the last 18 months, with the New York Times reporting that the stockpile has increase by some 20%.
New Zealand is currently a temporary member of the 15-nation UN Security Council, and will serve as that body’s president for a month in July. New Zealand is expected to join France before September in proposing a resolution calling for the parameters of a two state solution, and a deadline for the establishment of a Palestinian state and an Israeli withdrawal from the territories.
Netanyahu wished McCully “a lot of luck” heading the Security Council. “The main thing we have learned,” he said “ is that peace is achieved as we did with Jordan and with Egypt through direct negotiations between parties, and not by fiat – it just doesn’t work that way. I hope it works, but it has to work through direct negotiations.”
Analysis: With Syria crumbling, Israel’s security situation has never been better
YOSSI MELMAN/J.Post/06/03/2015
Deputy IDF Chief of Staff Maj.-Gen. Yair Golan said Tuesday that Israel’s security situation on the northern border has improved as a result of the Syrian civil war, which has served to drain the blood of Hezbollah. On the surface, these appear to be trivial remarks, which have been repeated by military experts and analysts over the past several years. But to hear them from such a senior military authority is refreshingly new.
As far as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minsiter Moshe Ya’alon are concerned, these comments verge on heresy. If our security situation has improved, does the IDF really need additions to its budget? And what about the approach taken by Netanyahu, who continues to warn, on every possible occasion, of the threat of Iran, Hezbollah, and Islamic State? Indeed, Israel’s strategic situation has never been better. Arab states that were once armed to the teeth, such as Libya and Iraq, have fallen apart. Egypt is a military and intelligence ally of Israel in its fight against Hamas the Sinai terror threat.
Syria, prior to the civil war, 50 months ago, was the greatest threat to Israel, and even then, to those who knew the truth, the country did not serve as that much of a serious threat. Today, Syria no longer actually exists as one sovereign, political entity, but rather it is broken up into territories. A small region in the northeast is the Kurdish enclave. Half of the country’s land, most of which is desert, mainly in the east, is controlled by Islamic State. In northern Syria and in the South on the border with Israel, in the Golan Heights, control is largely in the hands of the Nusra Front (the al-Qaida affiliate which has been made more moderate by funding from Qatar). The rest, which includes Damascus, the center of Aleppo, Homs and the coastal strip on the ports of Latakia and Tartus, in which Assad’s Alawite minority resides, remain in control of the regime. Soon, a new Druse enclave is also likely to be formed in the area of Druse Mountain in southeast Syria, near the approach to the Jordan border.
The Syrian Army is crumbling. Iran is providing reinforcements to save what remains of the Assad regime, with the understanding that their is a limit to how much they can demand that Hezbollah serve as cannon fodder in a war to save Assad.
The situation in Syria has fallen into chaos. The US Embassy Syria tweeted on its official account Tuesday that the Syrian Air Force was striking rebel positions in the Aleppo area, helping Islamic State, which is also fighting against the regime, but is mainly focusing its efforts against its adversaries among the opposition to Assad.
It is difficult to logically explain what is happening in Syria, and who is against who. There is a feeling that everyone is against everyone. With this being the case, any speculative report or rumor spreads wings and wins immediate headlines, which is how it was reported Tuesday in the Lebanese media that the Israeli Air Force again struck targets in Lebanon. Hezbollah-affiliated al-Manar television was quick to deny the reports, and Israel, as is its custom, neither confirmed nor denied the reports.
Anything is possible. It could be an Israeli attack or a false report. Nothing reported on the Syrian civil war is out of the realm of possibility.
Yossi Melman is an Israeli journalist and writer who specializes in security and intelligence affairs. He is co-author of Spies Against Armageddon: Inside Israel’s Secret Wars.
**Visit Yossi Melman’s blog: www.israelspy.com
