Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on August 06-07/2023
The Transfiguration of the Lord Annual Remembrance Day
Sain of the day page/August 06
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/120851/120851/
All three Synoptic Gospels tell the story of the Transfiguration (Matthew 17:1-8; Mark 9:2-9; Luke 9:28-36). With remarkable agreement, all three place the event shortly after Peter’s confession of faith that Jesus is the Messiah and Jesus’ first prediction of his passion and death. Peter’s eagerness to erect tents or booths on the spot suggests it occurred during the week-long Jewish Feast of Booths in the fall. According to Scripture scholars, in spite of the texts’ agreement it is difficult to reconstruct the disciples’ experience, because the Gospels draw heavily on Old Testament descriptions of the Sinai encounter with God, and prophetic visions of the Son of Man. Certainly Peter, James, and John had a glimpse of Jesus’ divinity strong enough to strike fear into their hearts. Such an experience defies description, so they drew on familiar religious language to describe it. And certainly Jesus warned them that his glory and his suffering were to be inextricably connected—a theme John highlights throughout his Gospel. Tradition names Mount Tabor as the site of the revelation. A church first raised there in the fourth century was dedicated on August 6. A feast in honor of the Transfiguration was celebrated in the Eastern Church from about that time. Western observance began in some localities about the eighth century. On July 22, 1456, Crusaders defeated the Turks at Belgrade. News of the victory reached Rome on August 6, and Pope Callistus III placed the feast on the Roman calendar the following year.

Homily of Patriarch Cardinal Mar Beshara Boutros Al-Rahi/Mass for World Youth Day
LCCC/Google translation/August 06/2023
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/120840/120840/
Bzommar Patriarchal Monastery – Sunday, August 6, the feast of the Transfiguration of the Lord
“His face shone like the sun, and his clothes became white as snow.” (Matthew 2:17)
1. When Jesus told his disciples about his suffering, his crucifixion, and his resurrection on the third day, they could not accept this matter, as Simon-Peter put it in their name (see Matthew 16: 21-22). Jesus took three of them, Peter, James and John to the mountain and transfigured before them: “And his face shone like the sun, and his clothes became white as snow” (Matthew 17:2).
Thus, he anticipated the glory of his resurrection, and revealed to them his hidden divine might under the guise of the humiliation of human nature. He wanted from this event that they remember his divine reality when they see the weakness of his humanity. But they did not understand all of this until after his resurrection, and the descent of the Holy Spirit on them on the day of Pentecost, so they flew like eagles from their nests and soared in the haunted atmosphere, bearing testimony to Christ and his salvation gospel to the world with the courage of lions without sword, weapon or violence. This is our Christian message and our testimony, we children of this generation, especially the youth of today, in facing the challenges of the present that refine your personality. Don’t run away from it.
2. We are very pleased, with the Council of Catholic Patriarchs and Bishops in Lebanon, dear young men and women, to celebrate together this divine liturgy that we conclude here in Lebanon, in the vicinity of the Monastery of Our Lady of Bzommar Patriarchal Al-Amer, on the International Youth Day, while the same celebration is held by His Holiness Pope Francis in Lisbon-Portugal with the participation of youth from different countries of the world
We will not meditate on the topic chosen by His Holiness the Pope: “And Mary arose and went away in haste” (Luke 1:39), because you meditated on it throughout the previous days that brought you together. Rather, we confine our contemplation to the Gospel of the Transfiguration of the Lord Jesus.
3. Through the transfiguration of the Lord Jesus, He showed in Himself that the human essence recovered the beauty of the first image in which every human being was born, which is that “God created him in His own image and likeness” (Genesis 1:26). But man distorted it and even lost it with his sin and evil deeds. He turned his mind, the center of truth, into the energy of lying, and his will, the center of good, into the energy of evil, and his heart, the center of love and tenderness, into the energy of hatred and malice. The Byzantine liturgy prays on this day: “You ascended to the mountain, O Savior, with Your disciples, and through Your transfiguration, You made the dark nature of Adam return to a shining light, returning its element to the glory and brilliance of Your theology.” Human).
4. During the transfiguration of Christ, the reality of the human being appeared as God wanted it to be, when He created it in His image and likeness; In the transfiguration, the secret of man and the heavenly glory that awaits him is revealed to us, as our Lord says about the righteous: “They shine like the sun in their Father’s kingdom” (Matthew 13:43). We remember all our saints, and among them we mention today the blessed young Carlo Acutis, whose relics have accompanied you in these days, to be an intercessor for you and an example in your humanity by shifting the gaze from oneself to God and to the brothers in their needs. This view he acquired from the Mass and Communion every day, and from the recitation of the Rosary and the weekly confession. The image of God imprinted in his humanity, which is rich in the highest spiritual and moral values, has become evident in this young man. With this concept, Jesus liked to call himself the “Son of Man.” Thus, in its light, the mystery of man is revealed, and without it man remains a mystery in himself (ibid.).
5. The transfiguration is complete with the appearance of Moses, the symbol of the law, and Elijah, the symbol of prophecy, conversing with Jesus (see Matthew 17: 3) “so that our Lord Jesus may combine in His Person the Old and New Testaments, and to show the whole world the teaching of the One Truth in His Person, for He is the universal divine Word, and He is the Master of the last and the first” ( Mar Jacob Al-Srouji: The Song of the Transfiguration of Our Lord, Maronite Shima, Ordinary Time, pp. 333-334).
6. The scene ended with “the luminous cloud that overshadowed them”, which is a symbol of the Church of Christ that gathers into one, and which echoes in its preaching and teaching the voice of the Father: “This is my only Son in whom I am well pleased, so listen to Him” (Matthew 17: 5; Mar Jacob Al-Srugy, Ibid., p. 352). By hearing his voice in the Bible, the teaching of the Church, the inspirations of the Holy Spirit, and reading the signs of the times, we follow his path that leads to the truth without which we are lost, and to life without which spiritual, moral and human death. He is the one who says about himself, and no one else can say it: “I am the way, the truth, and the life” (John 14:6).
Dear young men and women of Lebanon,
7. Today is your day, “You are the renewal force in the Church, society and the state,” as Pope John Paul II greeted you from the shrine of Our Lady of Lebanon – Harissa in May 1997.
Your strength is the splendor of the image of God in you with its spiritual, moral and human values! Your weapon is your prayers! Your treasure is truth and love! Your approach is the approach of the Virgin Mary: “You will rise and go hastily” to serve and help our homeland, Lebanon, and liberate it from its political corruption that is rampant in all its public institutions and administrations. Citizens loyal to Lebanon alone must emerge from among you, and new, conscious and impartial leaders. You alone are the hope for reviving Lebanon with its values and advantages.
May this International Youth Day be a new birth in your life, with the grace and blessing of the Holy Trinity, the Father, the Son, and the Holy Spirit, to whom be glory and thanksgiving now and forever, Amen.

Text of Archbishop Aoud’s homily delivered today, August 06, 2023, during the Divine Liturgy that he presided over at St. George’s Cathedral in Beirut: Revealing the truth about the Beirut tragedy is a duty for the judiciary, and punishing the perpetrators is necessary to serve as a lesson.
NNA/LCCC/Google Translation/August 06/2023
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/120836/120836/
“Our hope is that the minds of politicians and officials will be enlightened so that they realize the suffering of citizens and the injustice inflicted on them as a result of their neglect and the swallowing of their rights and obscuring the reality of the biggest catastrophe that befell them, which destroyed more than two hundred of the people of Beirut. And holding the perpetrators accountable, and this is what they have not received yet, just as they have not received the promised assistance in order to restore their homes, which has increased the severity of their physical and psychological pain, bitterness and disappointment, and those responsible for the disaster are still dismissing and may be planning another atrocity, and the leaders and officials are still unable to Taking any salvage step for the country that might release the election of a president, followed by the formation of a government that would prevent politicians from interfering in the work of the judiciary, in order to unleash the investigation and release the hand of the investigator in order to clarify the truth, achieve justice, and punish those responsible for the Beirut bombing and oppression of its people.
He added, “Was this apocalyptic bombing the killing of Beirut and its people, or the assassination of the judiciary in order to spread chaos and closure on the country? Is it reasonable for the victims’ families to wait with the people of Beirut and all the Lebanese for three years without result? Three years of pain, patience, and demand, and the truth has not been revealed despite the ugliness and magnitude of the explosion.” Is it indifference or underestimation of the lives of people who loved Lebanon and did not abandon it in pursuit of a decent life, or is it incapacity or intentional obscuration of a truth that they do not want to appear for fear of? Otherwise, why would the investigator’s work be hindered? And all those who assassinated people, all their fault is that they wanted to express their opinions freely, and all those who brought this beautiful country to collapse, and all those who abused the country and its people, usurped their rights, transgressed the laws, defied the state, or did any bad act? How do murderers, speculators, and monopolists escape punishment? And the rapists of children and the assaults on the lives of innocent people with their stray bullets? And he continued: “Justice is necessary for the continuation of life in safety and a sense of equality among citizens, and announcing the truth about the Beirut tragedy is a duty for the judiciary, and punishing the perpetrators is necessary to serve as a lesson for those who tempt themselves to commit a similar crime.” Aoudi concluded: “Our call today is to seek enlightenment from the transfigured Christ, the rational sun of justice, and to become, in turn, beacons that guide others to the true light, by illuminating their paths with the light of love derived from God, who loves mankind.”

Lebanese Minister of Trade and Economy Amin Salam clarifies ‘remark To in regards to his bizarre Kuwait related statement
BEIRUT/KUNA/August 06/2023
Lebanese Minister of Trade and Economy Amin Salam has underline the “positive intentions” of his remarks about Kuwait, saying that his country has been appreciating Kuwait throughout history. This came in a news conference held by Salam to clarify his statement regarding rebuilding wheat silos at Beirut’s port and call for Kuwait to help his country. Salam reiterated that Lebanon is keen on the deep-rooted and historic relations with Kuwait. He said in the statement that Kuwait could do that with a “stroke of a pen”, indicating he meant by using this phrase as “normal Lebanese language colloquial phrase” that rebuilding the silos could be speedily implemented. He elaborated that he did not mean by this phrase to “transgress the principles, and constitutional and legal mechanisms” in force by Kuwait or by Lebanon. Salam noted that he wanted to clarify these matters properly as being minister of trade and economy, and head of food security committee in Lebanon. He went on to say that his statement was a reply to some media and news questions on the anniversary of the explosion of Beirut’s Port falls on August 4. He stressed that he is aware of the matters and decisions in Kuwait that are taken in line with a constitutional and institutional process.” Salam, finally, expressed his hope that brothers in Kuwait would accept his clarification. Reassuring safety Meanwhile, Lebanon’s caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati has commissioned Minister of Foreign Affairs and Emigrants Abdullah Bou Habib to communicate with Arab brothers to reassure them about the safety of their nationals in Lebanon. In a statement issued by Mekati’s media office, the premier followed up with Bou Habib and Minister of Interior and Municipalities Bassam Mawlawi on the developments related to the “warning statements” issued by the embassies of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Germany for their nationals in Lebanon. In added that available information reached after discussing with the military and security leaders revealed that the “overall security situation in general does not call for concern or panic”. It noted that the political and security contacts on addressing the events of Ain Al-Hilweh camp of Palestinian refugees made progress. The statement indicated that matters are currently under “close monitoring” to ensure general stability and prevent any “security infringement or targeting” citizens, residents, and Arab and foreign tourists in Lebanon. Mekati asked Mawlawi to call for a meeting of the Central Security Council to discuss “the challenges facing Lennon in these regional conditions to take required decisions so as to maintain security in all parts in Lebanon, it stated. The refugee camp has been witnessing armed clashes between some Palestinian factions over a week that killed 13 people and wounded 60 others.

UAE, Bahrain, Qatar and Oman also issue Lebanon travel warnings
Associated Press/August 06/2023
Bahrain has called on its citizens to leave Lebanon "for their own safety" hours after Saudi Arabia did the same without giving a reason. Another Gulf nation, Qatar, meanwhile called on Qataris in Lebanon to “observe caution and vigilance, stay away from the areas that are witnessing the current incidents, and abide by the instructions issued by the competent local authorities.”The UAE for its part reminded its citizens of the travel ban that has been in effect for years. Kuwait and Oman have also issued similar travel warnings. Bahrain's Foreign Ministry said Bahrainis should abide by the government's previous decisions to avoid travel to Lebanon. The Saudi embassy in Beirut posted a statement late Friday night on X, formerly known as Twitter, calling on its citizens to avoid going to areas where there are "armed conflicts" and also to leave Lebanon quickly. The decision by the Gulf nations comes after days of fighting in the largest Palestinian refugee camp in Lebanon between members of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas' Fatah group and militants of Islamic groups. The four days of fighting in Ain el-Helweh camp near the southern port city of Sidon has left 13 people dead and dozens wounded.

Fear of escalation: Gulf countries react to Ain al-Hilweh tensions with travel warnings to their citizens
LBCI/August 06/2023
As the situation in Ain al-Hilweh camp remains uncertain in the upcoming days and weeks, Gulf countries have issued a series of statements addressing their citizens. According to exclusive sources reported by LBCI, the first of these statements came from the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, urging its citizens to leave Lebanon despite the presence of many Saudis in the country. The UAE and Bahrain have also called on their citizens to avoid travel to Lebanon, with Bahrain further urging its citizens currently in Lebanon to depart. On the other hand, Kuwait, Qatar, and Oman have not gone as far as requesting their citizens to leave. Still, they have emphasized the need for caution and adherence to necessary security measures, mainly staying away from areas experiencing armed conflicts. While some view these calls through a political lens, others believe that fear of renewed clashes in Ain al-Hilweh is the main driving factor behind these measures. Responding to inquiries about any coordination within the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) leading to these warnings, a source within the GCC told LBCI that each country's respective foreign ministries issued the statements based on what they deemed appropriate for their citizens and are not directly linked to the GCC. In conclusion, regardless of whether politics played a role, it is evident that these travel advisories would not have been issued without the escalation of the situation in Ain al-Hilweh.

The Joint Palestinian Action Committee in Lebanon confirms ceasefire in Ain al-Hilweh camp
LBCI/August 06/2023
The Joint Palestinian Action Committee in Lebanon has reiterated its commitment to maintaining a comprehensive and permanent ceasefire in Ain al-Hilweh camp. It calls for the withdrawal of all armed individuals from the streets and the opening of roads for vehicles and pedestrians to enter and exit the camp. In a statement, the Joint Palestinian Action Committee calls on the investigative committee formed to continue its work in identifying those involved in the "criminal assassination operation" that targeted the commander of the Palestinian National Security forces in Sidon, Abu Ashraf al-Armooshi, and his brothers, as well as the assassination of Abdel Rahman Farhud. Moreover, the Joint Palestinian Action Committee should immediately hand them over to the Lebanese judiciary. The statement also calls on all families displaced due to the clashes to return to their homes in the camp. The Committee calls on UNRWA to remove the rubble left by the clashes from the streets and clear waste from all camp areas. Furthermore, the Joint Palestinian Action Committee in Lebanon has assigned the Committee in Sidon to take the appropriate measures to implement the agreed-upon plan in coordination with the Lebanese political, security, and military authorities.

Hezbollah delegation and Fatah Movement address Ain al-Hilweh situation in Sidon meeting
LBCI/August 06/2023
A delegation from Hezbollah, led by Sheikh Ziad Daher, the head of the Sidon sector, visited the headquarters of the Fatah Movement in Sidon and met with the Secretary-General of the Lebanese arena in the movement and the Palestine Liberation Organization, Fathi Abu Ardat, in the presence of the Secretary-General of the Lebanon region, Hussein Fayyad. During the meeting, they discussed the implications of the events in the Ain al-Hilweh refugee camp on the camps and residents, affirming the provisions approved by the Joint Palestinian Action Committee in Beirut and Sidon.

Bankrupt government: Lebanon faces dire shortage of dollars for salaries and necessities
LBCI/August 06/2023
All state departments and institutions have been notified that no salaries are available in dollars at the end of the month. The government is bankrupt, and the bigger problem is that the situation has left the government without the necessary funds to cover essential expenses like medicines, fuel, food for the army, internet, and other expenses in dollars. The decision to suspend the Banque du Liban (BDL) funding to the government is irreversible, according to deputy governors, unless a law authorizing borrowing is adopted. Over the past week, the government and MPs have been tossing the responsibility for the law back and forth, with no clear consensus on whether it should be a government draft law or a proposal law presented by ten MPs. The Prime Minister said he tasked the Finance Minister to consult with the deputy governors on the draft law this week. However, since the discussions with the ministry have not started yet, dialogue will likely require more time. The Finance Ministry is preparing for intensive meetings next week to reach a specific formula that will be presented to the government. Meanwhile, deputy governors have taken a firm stance, declaring they are not concerned with the loan amount, duration, or distribution as their demands are limited to two main points. First, there must be a clear and convincing mechanism for the government to repay the loan, with deputy governors proposing reforms such as improving tax collection and cracking down on tax evasion and smuggling. The second point is that the loan contract should be subject to suspension at any time by the Central Council of the BDL if officials fail to enact the reform laws within the timeframe set in the deputy governors' recovery plan, which starts with correcting and adopting the 2023 budget and passing the Capital Control Law by the end of August. Nonetheless, deputy governors are not optimistic about the legislative process. According to sources of Wassim Mansouri, the acting governor of the BDL, Lebanese officials seem to have forgotten about reforms. They are stalling the law's adoption, debating whether it will be a draft or proposed law, even though reforms are more important than any amount of money or law. In conclusion, as the first week of August ends, there is still no clear solution to the law, and time is running out for salaries due in September.

Diman meeting: Prioritizing education, security, and economic concerns
LBCI/August 06/2023
The spotlight is on Diman next week, as the meeting between Lebanon's caretaker Prime Minister and the Maronite Patriarch, along with other bishops, is set to take place on Tuesday. Whether it is a ministerial meeting or a Cabinet session, the gathering has been controversial. However, governmental sources reported to LBCI that the meeting will proceed as planned and falls within the context of consultations on pressing issues, as inquired by the bishops during their previous meeting with Prime Minister Mikati. The discussions are expected to prioritize social, economic, educational, and security matters. Notably, the Education and Higher Education Minister will be present this time, indicating the significance of the education file. Other key topics include the Syrian refugee crisis, Lebanon's stance, and the current economic and living conditions. Governmental sources emphasized that the session is not a formal Cabinet meeting with an agenda but rather a consultation, with ministers actively engaged in participating. Addressing reactions to the Diman meeting, the sources dismissed the criticism as unjustified. They stated that the Prime Minister has the right to hold similar consultations in any region with different authorities, especially considering the country's current stalemate and stagnation. The priority should be finding solutions to the challenges faced by the Lebanese, overriding any political considerations that some might use to launch campaigns against the Prime Minister. Although Mikati invited all the ministers to the meeting, not all have confirmed their attendance. Similar to the first meeting, some ministers, particularly those affiliated with the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), have boycotted these meetings, rejecting attempts to bypass the constitution and expand the caretaker government's scope as if nothing had happened. The final count of attending ministers for Tuesday's meeting is yet to be confirmed.

Byblos International Festival 2023: Where East meets West in artistic harmony
LBCI/August 06/2023
As always, the location facing the historic Byblos Citadel and surrounded by the waters of the Mediterranean came to life with the enchanting Byblos International Festival 2023, showcasing an even greater splendor that has earned its place among the world's renowned festivals. In a scene of artistic elegance, the enchanting voice of Hiba Tawaji blended harmoniously with the timeless melodies of Oussama Rahbani, captivating the audience during the festival's grand opening. Hiba Tawaji's performance painted a vivid ambiance on the stage with her mesmerizing voice and captivating presence. More than two thousand people attended the opening ceremony, setting the stage for equally remarkable numbers in the upcoming concerts. This festival is a harmonious meeting of East and West. After a three-year hiatus, Byblos reclaims its spotlight with the enchanting performance of Hiba Tawaji at the opening and the grand finale featuring the American rapper Tyga, who will meet his audience on August 19 for one unforgettable night. In between, there will be a series of exceptional concerts, so mark your calendars and be part of the fun.

Qaouq: Hezbollah-FPM dialogue only ray of hope in the country
Naharnet/August 06/2023
Senior Hezbollah official Sheikh Nabil Qaouq on Sunday warned that “the political crisis in Lebanon is deepening the financial-economic-social crisis, while there is a political camp that is still rejecting solutions and insisting on the policy of challenge and confrontation.”“They are betting on the weapon of foreign sanctions and are inciting to draw these sanctions against their partners in the country,” Qaouq said. “Lebanon does not bear a president who would come through the weapon of sanctions, seeing as we are not in the year 1982 and will not be and Lebanon’s interest lies in the presence of a president who would oversee understandings in order to rescue the country,” Qaouq added, stressing that the new president “should not be a platform for settling political scores and threatening national unity.”“We in Hezbollah are searching for a solution and appropriate exits to save the country, whereas they are looking for continuing the confrontation and political battle,” Qaouq went on to say. As for the ongoing dialogue between Hezbollah and the Free Patriotic Movement, the Hezbollah official said: “Amid this political deadlock and tension, the only ray of hope in the country is the dialogue between Hezbollah and the FPM.”“The core of this dialogue is the election of a president and it is continuing in a positive manner and is not awaiting any foreign movements,” Qaouq added.

Lebanon facing food security threat as Beirut port silos yet to be rebuilt
Najia Houssari/Arab News/August 07, 2023
BEIRUT: Three years after being damaged in an explosion, vital grain silos at Beirut port remain unusable, posing a growing threat to Lebanon’s food security. The silos, which were hit by the blast and then gradually collapsed, had capacity for 120,000 tons of wheat and grains. As a result, Lebanon is now unable to import large quantities of wheat as it has nowhere to store it. “Today, the silos are encircled by wire to prevent people from approaching them and preserve public safety,” Dr. Bechara Asmar, head of the port’s workers’ syndicate and medical department, told Arab News. “The authorities spray the surrounding areas with pesticide from time to time to prevent the spread of fungi as a result of the rotting grains and wheat in the vaults of the silos,” he said. Asmar added that while the silos could not degrade any more than they already had, “the restoration work of the three basins adjacent to the silos hasn’t started. It is a paralyzed and isolated place.”While the families of the victims reject the demolition of what is left of the silos, some political figures do not want them to be rebuilt on their original site. Former Minister Fadi Abboud questioned the economic viability of “the reconstruction of the silos on land that costs $10 billion, besides the increase in the number of trucks entering and exiting the port, making it the most overcrowded part of Beirut.” Asmar said that Abboud had proposed turning the existing port into an entry point for tourist vessels and moving commercial operations to Tripoli to reduce traffic congestion. “This proposal is rejected,” he said. “We can build tourism ports at any location on the Lebanese coast, but the importance of the Beirut port is that it is one of the best basins on the Mediterranean Sea. “It is deep, distinctive and highly equipped to be an important trade corridor, and can also complement the port of Tripoli.”The devastating explosion that hit Beirut port on Aug. 4, 2020 damaged the high-rise grain silos, which were considered a landmark of the city. The vast tanks actually shielded the southern part of Beirut from destruction by absorbing most of the force of the blast. But several people were killed when part of the silos collapsed. Just days before the second anniversary of the explosion, a fire erupted in the silos and their surroundings, triggered by grain that had fermented and ignited inside. The blaze continued for several weeks as firefighters were unable to control the flames due to the failing state of the silos. According to customs statistics, Lebanon imported about 754,000 tons of wheat in 2021 and consumed about 60,000 tons of it per month. Asmar said the silos used to hold enough reserves for between six months and a year.“Today, the mills that are importing common wheat for Lebanese pita bread are storing it in their relatively small warehouses. The total imported quantity covers three months at most.”After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — the two countries from which Lebanon mostly bought its wheat — the nation agreed deals with Romania, Turkey and Egypt to help meet its demand.

How Lebanon, Syria and Jordan can overcome their troubles
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/August 06, 2023
It is not an exaggeration to argue that the political, security, humanitarian and economic landscapes in Lebanon, Syria and Jordan are closely interconnected. While prosperity and growth in one of these Arab nations directly affects the other two, so do economic woes and political instability.
Many of the problems that these three bordering Levantine nations currently face began with the Syrian civil war. Civil wars can inflict devastating damage on infrastructure and, more importantly, disrupt production and manufacturing processes in conflict-affected nations, as well as the countries adjoining them.
It is worth noting that Lebanon and Jordan continue to experience the spillover of the conflict in Syria, which has not yet fully ended. Some parts of the country remain very unstable and insecure. This is particularly true of the southern areas of Syria, including the city of Deraa, which was the birthplace of the uprising and is considered to be one of the most strategic places in the country. Deraa is close to the border with Jordan, as well as the Syrian Golan Heights region of Quneitra.
Another important dynamic that has directly affected Lebanon and Jordan is the huge influx of Syrian refugees to their nations. After more than 12 years of conflict, Syria remains the largest refugee crisis in the world. The UN Refugee Agency reported in March that more than “14 million Syrians have been forced to flee their homes in search of safety.”
Jordan has the second-largest number of refugees per capita in the world. According to the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, Jordan currently hosts some “675,000 registered refugees from Syria, who began fleeing in 2011 when the crisis in their country brought unimaginable suffering on its citizens. Most Syrian refugees in Jordan live in its towns and villages, among local communities. Only 17 percent live in the two main refugee camps, Za’atari and Azraq.”
Lebanon, meanwhile, now hosts the highest number of refugees per capita worldwide. “The government estimates 1.5 million Syrian refugees and 13,715 refugees of other nationalities. Ninety percent of Syrian refugees are living in extreme poverty,” according to the UN Refugee Agency.
As a result, it should not come as a surprise that many people in Syria, Lebanon and Jordan are facing severe economic hardship. Unemployment in all these countries is above 10 percent. Lebanon’s economic crisis has been characterized as one of the 10 worst globally since the 19th century. Syrians are facing a record level of food insecurity and increasing prices for basic necessities. Syria’s currency, which was trading at about 47 pounds to the US dollar just before the unrest erupted in 2011, recently hit an all-time low and $1 is now worth about 13,000 Syrian pounds. Inflation also hit 139 percent in 2022. This placed it fourth in the world in terms of highest inflation rates, only ranking behind Venezuela, Sudan and Lebanon, according to the World Population Review.
Many of the problems that these three bordering Levantine nations currently face began with the Syrian civil war.
Nevertheless, many of the problems Damascus, Beirut and Amman face can be adequately addressed and resolved if they cooperate closely with each other on several fronts.
In order to accomplish this objective, the first thing required is a united political will. The leaderships in Syria, Lebanon and Jordan can create a comprehensive, unified and long-term vision that advances their economic, humanitarian and political dynamics, all while taking into consideration the fact that their nations’ sociopolitical and economic landscapes are intertwined.
Several countries in the region have set up long-term and inspiring visions in order to direct their nations toward a better and more prosperous future. For instance, Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 is one of the most ambitious and comprehensive plans introduced in the modern Middle East because it encompasses not only economic, but also environmental, social and religious landscapes, along with political reforms. The UAE also has the “We the UAE 2031” vision, which represents “a national plan through which the UAE will continue its development path for the next 10 years, with focus on social, economic, investment and development aspects. The plan seeks to enhance the position of the UAE as a global partner and an attractive and influential economic hub.”
After the leaderships in Syria, Lebanon and Jordan set up a firm and united vision, they can chart a path to cooperate closely on security issues, securing their borders, enhancing political stability, attracting foreign investment and increasing revenues from tourism thanks to their historical significance. They must invest in their infrastructure, address food insecurity and power shortages, tackle the smuggling of drugs from Syria, and pave the way for Syrian refugees to safely return to their homes.
Without a doubt, such a plan will take time to bear fruit. But as the saying goes, Rome was not built in a day.Syria, Lebanon and Jordan all have historical and cultural significance and they made significant contributions to civilization in the past. If they cooperate closely on security, social, economic and political matters, not only can they adequately address many problems of those they currently face, but they can also become examples for other nations to follow. In summary, the political, economic, social and security landscapes in Syria, Lebanon and Jordan are intertwined. These three Levantine nations need a united and strong vision, as well as close cooperation on several fronts, in order to address the difficult issues they are facing.
• Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian-American political scientist.
Twitter: @Dr_Rafizadeh

Lebanon: Either Resistance or Justice
Hazem Saghieh/Asharq Al Awsat/August 06/2023
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/120856/120856/
As heartbreaking recollections of the port blast make their way back into the minds of Lebanese, the question of justice for the victims of the crime has forcefully returned to the fore. And justice inevitably comes with demands for the truth: Why did what happened happen? Who did it? Who made the order?
However, justice returns as an impossible, unattainable object. Judge Tarek Bitar having his hands tied, after the dismissal of Judge Fadi Sawan, merely encapsulated this state of affairs, besides serving as an early omen for what was to come.
This same justice was not achieved after the murder of the writer and activist Lokman Slim either, nor that of army photographer Joseph Bejjani.
Justice has also not been served, or has been suspended, in relation to the crime of the banks’ looting of their depositors, nor the economic and monetary collapse that preceded and accompanied it.
Before these crimes, backbreaking efforts were needed to allow for the International Tribunal into the assassination of Rafic Hariri and those who accompanied him on his convoy. As for the modest outcome of its investigations, they were brushed aside. In turn, the victims of the crimes that followed between 2005 and 2006 did not get any investigation to speak of, neither domestic nor international. They died, and that’s it. This is how things go!
All of these crimes remain without perpetrators. Hezbollah’s secretary general called the calamity at the port a “painful accident.” Public Works Minister and Transport Ali Hamieh posted a picture of a rehabilitated and thriving port, as if to say that nothing had happened.
These are facts that all the Lebanese have become familiar with, so they do not surprise anyone, though they enraged, and continue to enrage, many of them. What has not been given the significance it deserves, however, is the comparison between this image of Lebanon as a country that repels justice with that of a country of resistance, and thus, neither have the implications that can be derived from this comparison.
The fact is that the coexistence of these two images, which has been in place for a while now, is entirely normal. More than that, these are two sides of a single truth. Those insisting on demands for justice, be it domestic or international, and rising up against a regime that represses it, are foreign agents and traitors in the eyes of the resistance’s supporters. As for the latter, who want to go on dismissing justice and maintain the status quo in order to avoid jeopardizing the resistance, they are complicit in everything that reinforces the crime.
Indeed, the erosion of justice and its courts, and the inflation of the resistance and its missiles, are the two prominent features and excesses of contemporary Lebanese life. And each of these features is a requisite for the other: More resistance means less justice, and less justice means more resistance.
This is predicated on a revolutionary philosophy, so to speak. Revolutionary and ideological experiences, in all their variety, concur on replacing the courts with “revolutionary courts” and “people’s courts,” when courts are not abolished outright, that is. As for the furthest reason for this behavior, it is that those with an ideological makeup identify the perpetrator and who is the victim beforehand. It is not actions that underlie this knowledge. Rather, it is dictated by the intellectual and political positions of the perpetrator and victim, the backgrounds they come from, or the social groups they belong to. In this sense, the courts (reactionary, bourgeois, or heathen...) may reveal a truth, but they obscure a right which is deeper than the truth. What then, are we to expect when the proponents of this theory are the same people with the weapons that enforce it or the authorities that govern on its basis?
Indeed, it would be ridiculous to speak about a brilliant Soviet lawyer, or a distinguished judge in Nazi Germany or Khomeinist Iran. These things do not happen where “right” (which is inherently contentious of course) takes precedence over the concrete and well-established facts of murder.
Some Arab countries seized by armies and ideologies did not escape caricatures of “revolutionary courts.” And we thus saw the emergence of Fadel al-Mahdawi’s court in Iraq in the 1950s and Salah al-Dilli’s in Syria in the 1960s, while the “masses” were tasked with trying defendants in Gaddafi’s Libya.
Going back to Lebanon, it is more evident than ever that the choice, in the end, is between resistance and justice: either we have resistance amid an absence of justice - the status quo today that is probably going to become increasingly entrenched - or we have justice amid an absence of resistance, which is not likely in the foreseeable future.
Because the balance of power between these two formulas is skewed in this way, it could be said that those seeking justice are now without a homeland, or that their homeland is no longer worthy of the name.
Homelands of a resistance rappelling justice are jungles more than they are homelands. Today, increasing numbers of Lebanese are saying that they do not want to live in a jungle; that is, they do not want a homeland in which there is resistance and no justice. This is the point made by the poignant speeches delivered last Friday, when thousands of citizens gathered to commemorate the third anniversary of the port blast.

Lebanon: Anatomy of a nation’s travails
Michael Jansen/Gulf Today/August 06/2023
Ahead of the third anniversary on August 4th of the Beirut port blast, Dutch Ambassador Hans Peter Van der Woude, German Ambassador Andreas Kindl, and Australian Ambassador Andrew Barnes accredited to Lebanon made an emotional appeal in “L’Orient Today.” They urged the country’s authorities to explain to victims’ families why the explosion occurred. Two hundred and thirty-five people were killed, 7,000 wounded, and 300,000 rendered homeless by the detonation, the largest non-nuclear explosion since World War II — and, perhaps, ever. The blast, which was felt in distant Cyprus, levelled adjacent neighbourhoods and damaged buildings, and blew out windows in districts of Beirut far from the port. The envoys called for blame to be apportioned for abandoning 2,750 tonnes of volatile ammonium nitrate which had been stored along with paint and fireworks for six years in a deteriorating, insecure warehouse in the port. President Michel Aoun, Prime Minister Hassan Diab and several ministers and officials were warned about the danger the cargo posed. The material had been confiscated from an unseaworthy vessel, MV Rhosus, by port officials. The explosion was triggered by a fire at the warehouse, reportedly, set after Syrian workers welded shut a metal door on the orders of public prosecutor Ghassan Ouiedat. The ambassadors complained that the investigation has been stalled since December 2021 and said “with the prevention of due process, there are no answers in sight.” Instead of conducting an open inquiry into the blast, Lebanon’s politicians and officials have done their utmost to block chosen investigators. The judge who initiated a probe, Fadi Sawwan, was dismissed when he charged with neglect two ministers belonging to Amal, the party of powerful parliamentary speaker Nabih Berri.
In February 2021, the head of Beirut’s criminal court Tarek Bitar was given the job and has stuck with the risky task like a limpet. An independent, incorruptible judge from north Lebanon, Bitar has refused to stand down. He has suffered pressure, a travel ban, and prosecution by Oueidat who has been charged over the port blast. The ambassadors argued, “This lack of transparency and accountability does not serve Lebanon well. It means lessons are not learned, and those responsible go unpunished.”
The ambassadors did not mention that the authors of two civil wars since Lebanon’s Independence in 1943 and of the current economic meltdown have not paid any price for their actions.
The first three-month civil conflict erupted in 1958 when US-backed Camille Chamoun, elected president in 1952, sought a second term although Lebanon’s constitution limits presidents to one term. His bid was opposed by Druze and Sunni leaders and their armed followers which had the support of the United Arab Republic, the brief union of Syria and Egypt. The US – which wrongly accused the opposition of being communists – landed troops to support Chamoun, UN mediators intervened, Chamoun resigned and was replaced by General Fuad Chehab, who became Lebanon’s best president. US forces withdrew, looking foolish. On the pro-Chamoun side 1,000 were killed or wounded, on the opposition side 5,000 died or were injured. None of the politicians involved were held responsible. Lebanon reemerged from the crisis, prospered, and celebrated its “Golden Era” during the 1960s.
The second civil war was a far more serious and complex conflict which began in 1975 and ended in 1990. Tension had been building between right-wing Maronite factions who feared the erosion of their sectarian power and Sunni and Druze parties. Chamoun provided the spark for this war by establishing a trawler firm to monopolise fishing off the southern coast. Populist Sidon parliamentary deputy Maarouf Saad led a demonstration against Chamoun’s company and was shot and wounded, reportedly, by an army sniper. His death on March 6th launched the war which wound down in 1989 although fighting continued between troops loyal to army General Michel Aoun and his rival Lebanese Forces chief Samir Geagea. In 1990, the Syrian army, which had entered Lebanon in 1976 as a peace force, put an end to Aoun’s rebellion. He fled to France, the traditional refuge of Lebanese politicians in trouble. The death toll during this war was 120,000 and one million Lebanese left the country which has not recovered from conflict largely because of massive mismanagement and ballooning corruption. Chamoun died at 87 in August 1987.
Although there was a parliamentary amnesty for war crimes in 1991, Geagea was arrested in 1994 in connection with a church bombing and imprisoned for 11 years. After his release, he was elected to the assembly and was pardoned in 2005. He continues to head the Lebanese Forces. Since the 2022 legislative election it has been the largest Maronite Christian party in parliament and he has been a major obstacle to the appointment of a new president since Aoun — who returned to Beirut in 2005 and was elected president in 2016 – left the job at the end of October last year.
Since Lebanon’s economic crisis which surfaced in the summer of 2019, the country’s currency has fallen in value by 90 per cent and 80 per cent of the population has sunk into poverty while the politicians have done nothing. Lebanon has a caretaker government which cannot take existential decisions, no president, and a deeply divided parliament. Former central bank governor Riad Salameh - who has been accused of embezzling $330 million — remains free although his passport has been seized and he cannot escape to Europe where warrants have been issued for his arrest in France and Germany. His assets have been seized, and an arrest warrant has been circulated by Interpol.
Lebanon, of course, is not the only country to avoid holding leaders accountable for war and other major crimes. The US has never considered charging ex-President George W. Bush for his 2003 war on Iraq, which counted as unprovoked aggression under international law. Multiple Israeli prime ministers are equally guilty of aggression against Palestine, Syria, and Lebanon as well as imposing apartheid, designated as illegal by the UN, on the occupied Palestinian West Bank and East Jerusalem. The powers-that-be adopt a hypocritical policy of double standards when calling for accountability. This has infected the International Criminal Court which has issued an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin over his invasion of Ukraine but has ignored Bush and his accomplice ex-British Prime Minister Tony Blair as well as other Western and pro-Western aggressors.
Michael Jansen/The author, a well-respected observer of Middle East affairs, has three books on the Arab-Israeli conflict.

Spotlight on Terrorism : Hezbollah, Lebanon and Syria (July 28-August 3, 2023)
The Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center
https://www.terrorism-info.org.il/en/
Overview
This past week masked Lebanese cut the security fence near the village of Ghajar, waved the Hezbollah flag and chanted slogans at Israel, increasing the tension between Israel and Lebanon. Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah secretary general, claimed Israel still held territories belonging Lebanon and penetrated Lebanese airspace. He warned Israel not to do “anything foolish, ” claiming Hezbollah maintained its deterrent capabilities against Israel at a high level. Na’im Qassem, Hezbollah deputy secretary general, said that the organization was on prepared and developing its capabilities, as shown by Hezbollah’s most recent military exercise.
On July 29, 2023, violent clashes broke out and shots were fired in the Ain al-Hilweh refugee camp near Sidon, following the attempted assassination of a Salafist operative. So far, more than ten deaths (including a senior Fatah operative), and more than sixty wounded have been reported, including Lebanese army soldiers. Attempts by senior Lebanese government officials and Palestinians to calm the situation and reach a ceasefire were reported, but as of August 3, 2023, the exchanges of fire continued. In addition to the internal Palestinian conflict, the events in the Ain al-Hilweh refugee camp brought to the fore the problem of illegal weapons in Lebanon.
Wassim Mansouri was appointed to serve as governor of the Lebanese Central Bank of Lebanon.
Preparations continue to begin drilling in Lebanon’s offshore gas field.
Hezbollah and Lebanon
Israel-Hezbollah tension
This past week the Hezbollah continued its provocations along the Lebanon-Israel border. On July 30, 2023, a number of masked Lebanese went to the border in the region of the village of Ghajar, cut through the fence erected by UNIFIL, and for the first time since 2006 walked along the road, waving Hezbollah flags and chanting anti-Israeli slogans. The section of road surrounded by a fence is in Lebanese territory. UNIFIL soldiers made unsuccessful attempts to disperse them (Israeli media, July 30, 2023).
Ali Shoeib, a correspondent for the Hezbollah-affiliated al-Manar network, reported that several Lebanese cut the fence to protest the “occupation” of Ghajar and UNIFIL’s closing of the Wazzani-Abbasiya [sic] road, and for the first time since 2006 walked along the road (photojournalist Ali Shoeib’s Twitter account, July 30, 2023).
On August 1, 2023, Gilad Erdan, Israel’s ambassador to the United Nations, submitted an official complaint to the UN Security Council against Lebanon. He demanded the Lebanese government and UNIFIL force be ordered to act immediately to prevent Hezbollah from continuing the construction of its military infrastructure along the Israeli-Lebanese border, in violation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701[1] (Israeli media, August 1, 2023).
On August 2, 2023, IDF Chief of Staff Major General Herzi Halevi and Israeli President Yitzhak Herzog toured the Israel-Lebanon border. Lebanese media outlets reported the tour and Herzog’s message for the Lebanese people, which was snot to test Israel’s resolve. They also published photos of him using binoculars to look at the Lebanese side of the border (MTV network, August 2, 2023).
Last week Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah secretary general, addressed the border issue and tensions with Israel in a series of mostly religious speeches delivered for Ashura.[2] He said the following:
Israel has its nerve to talk about Hezbollah provocations on the border. Israel is the provocateur, Israel trespasses into Lebanese territory and violates [Lebanese] airspace, Israel reoccupies Lebanese land and continues its past occupation of land (al-‘Ahed, July 29, 2023).
Nasrallah warned Israel not to do anything “foolish.” Indeed, he said, Hezbollah would take Israel’s actions seriously, would not shirk its duty for a minute, not in defense, not in deterrence, not in liberation, and it would not lower its head before “defeated and unstable” Israel. Hezbollah would be ready for every option and to deal with any Israeli mistake or “foolish action” (al-‘Ahed, July 29, 2023).
Na’im Qassem, Hezbollah deputy secretary general, said in a speech that Hezbollah would be an integral part of the struggle for the liberation of Lebanese lands as long as Israel “occupied” them. He claimed the objective of Hezbollah’s most recent military exercise was to show its high level of preparedness and developing capabilities (Tasnim, July 29, 2023).
In an attempt to reduce tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, UNIFIL plans to convene a tripartite meeting between representatives of the IDF, the Lebanese Army and UNIFIL in the middle of August 2023. Two weeks ago the periodic tripartite meeting was canceled when Israel announced its representatives would not attend because of incidents on the Israeli-Lebanese border (Israeli Kan Radio Station, August 2, 2023).
Israel warned Hezbollah not to test it. Syria- and Hezbollah-affiliated commentators were skeptical of Israel’s threats against Hezbollah:
Rifat Ibrahim al-Badawi wrote in the Syrian daily al-Watan that Israel’s declarations were directed inward, to the Israeli public, to prove it was capable of acting against Hezbollah. In his opinion, they were empty words intended to prevent a war that was liable to destroy the “Zionist entity.” He said that given the Israeli government’s failure to calm internal protests, it had no choice but to threaten Hezbollah to prevent internal disintegration. He added that in his opinion, the IDF, which is regarded as invincible, would not be able to initiate a war against Hezbollah because “Hezbollah will defeat it.” He claimed that “Israel’s power eroded between the 2000 and 2023, and today it issues threats in an attempt to delay its disappearance” (al-Watan, August 1, 2023).
Yahya Dabbouq, a reporter for the Hezbollah-affiliated Lebanese daily al-Akhbar, wrote that Israel’s threats would not be translated into action because the Israeli government and its security establishment were trying to defuse internal protests by directing attention toward “other matters” which united Israelis. He claimed that Israel’s threats were intended to warn Hezbollah not to violate the “rules of the engagement” along the border and prove Israel was in fact ready for war, and were merely a statement of intent “that could be withdrawn if Israel or Hezbollah caused the situation on the ground to deteriorate” (al-Akhbar, July 31, 2023).
Internal Lebanese Affairs
Clashes in the Ain al-Hilweh refugee camp
Since July 29, 2023, there have been violent clashes and exchanges of fire in the Ain al-Hilweh refugee camp, located in the suburbs of Sidon in south Lebanon. The events were triggered by Fatah’s attempt to assassinate a senior operative of Asbat al-Ansar, a Salafist Palestinian organization. The assassination attempt led to armed clashes between Asbat al-Ansar and Fatah terrorist operatives. On July 30, 2023, Abu Ashraf al-Armoushi (a senior Fatah figure and commander of the “national security forces” in the refugee camp) and several of his men were killed in an ambush.[3] So far, more than ten deaths and more than sixty wounded have been reported. According to reports, many civilians fled from the camp (al-Nashra, August 2, 2023).
Lebanese army forces surrounded the refugee camp to prevent more armed men from entering but did not enter themselves. Najib Makati, prime minister of Lebanon’s interim government, condemned the events and called on the parties to obey the ordered issued by the security forces. Mahmoud Abbas’ office condemned the Fatah deaths (al-Nashra, July 30, 2023).
The Lebanese army said in a statement that during the clashes several soldiers were injured by a mortar shell which landed in a military base near the refugee camp, adding that several Lebanese army observation posts had been damaged. The Lebanese army warned [the rival sides] against putting its soldiers at risk, threatening that the next time they would return fire (Lebanese Army Twitter account, July 30, 2023).
There were several attempts to reach a ceasefire. A meeting was held by the Joint Palestinian Activity Committee and representatives of the Lebanese parties, including representatives from Hezbollah and Amal (al-Nashra, August 2, 2023). Joseph Aoun, commander of the Lebanese army, also met with Ashraf Dabbour, the Palestinian ambassador to Lebanon (Lebanese army Twitter account, August 2, 2023). As part of the attempts for a ceasefire, it was also agreed that a Palestinian commission of inquiry would be formed to investigate the circumstances of al-Armoushi’s death (al-Nashra, July 30, 2023).
Isma’il Haniyeh, head of Hamas’ political bureau, spoke on the phone with Nabih Berri, the speaker of the Lebanese parliament. He asked Berri to intervene to stop the clashes and restore the status quo ante. Haniyeh also sent a communiqué to Nasrallah, asking him to invest more efforts in restoring calm to the refugee camp (Hamas Twitter account, August 3, 2023).
Palestinian figures and Lebanese officials related to the events in Ain al-Hilweh and some also inserted Israel into the issue:
Hassan Nasrallah called for an end to the killings in Ain al-Hilweh, condemned the exchange of fire and called the events “painful and sad” (al-Nahar, August 1, 2023). He called for an end to be put to the fighting “in any way possible, ” because it negative influenced the Palestinians and south Lebanon (Hezbollah’s military information Telegram channel, August 1, 2023).
Jihad Tahe, Hamas spokesman in Lebanon, claimed “the Zionist enemy” was the first to benefit from the conflicts, noting that Hamas was investing great efforts to restore calm. He took advantage of the events to state that Hamas would work together with other invested parties to preserve the Palestinian refugee camps and keep them “a bone in the throat of the United States and Israel” (al-Aqsa, July 31, 2023).
Najib Mikati, prime minister of the Lebanese interim government, claimed that given the current regional and international situation, the timing of the clashes was “suspicious, ” and in his opinion, external parties were using Lebanon as an arena for settling accounts (al-Nashra, July 30, 2023).
The Arab media raised several hypotheses and assessments of the events:
The British newspaper Independent in Arabic (which investigated the events) claimed there was tension in the Ain al-Hilweh camp between different Palestinian factions, which in the past had also caused killings and other incidents. According to the newspaper, the conflict in the refugee camp reflected the conflict in the Gaza Strip and the existing tensions between Hamas and Fatah (Independent in Arabic, July 31, 2023).
The Hezbollah-affiliated daily al-Akhbar wondered if the events in Ain al-Hilweh were the result of the visit of Majed Faraj, head Palestinian general intelligence, to Lebanon the week before the events.[4] The paper also claimed that Faraj had expressed an interest in Fatah’s playing a role in restraining the various Palestinian organizations operating in south Lebanon, whose operatives have launched rockets at Israel in recent months (al-Akhbar, July 31, 2023).
The problem of illegal weapons in Lebanon
The events in Ain al-Hilweh caused the problem of illegal weapons to resurface in Lebanese public discourse. The issue is not new: in October 2022 Sky News in Arabic broadcast an investigation which noted the problem was common to all Lebanese cities and districts. According to the investigation, one of the causes was the ease with which teenagers could obtain weapons. Sky News also claimed that all the illegal weapons had been “smuggled into the country” (Sky News in Arabic, October 12, 2022).
The MTV news site stated that the problem of illegal Palestinian weapons could no longer be ignored, and acknowledged the government’s helplessness and inability to enter the refugee camp to end the exchanges of fire (MTV, July 31, 2023).
Waddah al-Sadek, a member of the Lebanese parliament, said the country had been taken hostage by illegal weapons, regardless of whether they were Lebanese or Palestinian. He criticized Hezbollah, which frequently uses the excuse of “resistance” not to disarm. According to Sadek, resistance was necessary when there was no state, its objective was not to overthrow it if it already existed (@WaddahSadek Twitter account, July 30, 2023).
Samy Gemayel, head of the Christian Phalanges Party, said Hezbollah was directly responsible for the problem of illegal weapons in Lebanon, including in the Palestinian refugee camps, because it prevented the country from upholding its sovereignty in all of Lebanon and from confiscating illegal weapons. Furthermore, Hezbollah took sides in the Palestinian internal conflict by supporting certain factions and coordinating with them (al-Watan, August 1, 2023).
Lebanon’s presidential crisis
The presidential crisis continues and a president has not yet been elected. Hassan Nasrallah indirectly addressed the issue in a speech this past week, claiming that unlike others, Hezbollah did not seek political positions and the organization’s participation in government should be a means to serve the Lebanese people, and not an end in itself (al-‘Ahed, July 29, 2023).
Na’im Qassem, regarding the candidacy of Suleiman Frangieh, said they had not nominated him but did support his candidacy (Tasnim, July 29, 2023).
Governor of the Lebanese Central Bank appointed
On July 31, 2023, Wassim Mansouri was appointed governor of the Central Bank of Lebanon, after the previous governor, Riad Salameh, had been terminated. According to reports, Hezbollah and its affiliates had tried to sabotage Mansouri by absenting themselves from the vote (Syria TV, July 27, 2023). Maroun al-Khouli, chairman of the Lebanese Federation of Labor Unions, who had expressed support for the appointment, said that granting the position to Mansouri would end a period of currency law violations, granting loans and corruption (al-Nashra, July 31, 2023).
Mansouri is a Shi’ite from Ain al-Tineh, in the Beqa’a District, who until his appointment served as the first deputy of the governor of the Central Bank. Mansouri is close to the Amal movement and is a confidant of Nabih Berri, the leader of Amal and the Speaker of the Parliament. He has a reputation as a professional and a technocrat. It is unclear if he will continue Riad Salameh’s monetary policy. In the past, Mansouri said he and Salameh had many professional disagreements (L’Orient Le Jour, July 31, 2023).
Preparations for drilling in the offshore Qana gas field
Najib Mikati, prime minister of the Lebanese interim government, met with a delegation from Halliburton, the contracting company of TotalEnergies and responsible for the drilling in Block Nine (Lebanon’s offshore drilling area). The company showed delegation the preparations for drilling and the challenges facing it (Lebanese interim government Twitter account, July 27, 2023).
Qassem Kharib, represented as an expert in the development of oil and gas fields, questioned the purity of TotalEnergies’ intentions. He claimed the company had not handed over all the data to the Lebanese Petroleum Administration. He also claimed the Administration suffered from a lack of qualified personnel and therefore proposed external experts be appointed (Qassem Kharib’s Twitter account, August 1, 2023). About a year ago Kharib gave the Hezbollah-affiliated al-Mayadeen channel an interview in which he praised Hezbollah for the position it had taken during the negotiations regarding the delineation of Lebanon’s maritime border (al-Mayadeen, July 7, 2022).
[1] Resolution 1701 was passed in 2006 at the end of the Second Lebanon War, and called for a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, and the deployment an armed UN force and the Lebanese army in south Lebanon to prevent Hezbollah from continuing operations in south Lebanon. It also called for the disarmament of Hezbollah. ↑
[2] The day of mourning in Shi'a Islam for the death of Imam Hossein bin Ali, Muhammad's grandson. ↑
[3] Abu Ashraf al-Armoushi was the most senior operative in the Fatah refugee camp and he held the rank of Amid (equivalent to a general). ↑
[4] “An official Palestinian source" denied the reports about the visit's connection to the clashes, claiming the reports in the Lebanese media had been fabricated, had no relation to the truth and were intended to create disputes among Palestinians. According to the source, an official invitation for the visit had come from the Lebanese security establishment (Wafa, July 31, 2023). The Hamas-affiliated alresala.net claimed Majed Faraj had gone to Lebanon to halt Hamas' increasing power in the refugee camps, disarm the camps and tighten control to ensure that weapons, including rockets, would not be transferred to Judea and Samaria (alresala.net, July 31, 2023).

Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on August 06-07/2023
Iran’s IRGC among biggest threats to UK national security: Suella Braverman
Arab News/August 06, 2023
LONDON: Iran has become one of the biggest threats to UK national security, the British home secretary warned on Sunday. Suella Braverman expressed concern over reports that Iranian intelligence agents are recruiting members of criminal gangs to take out regime opponents, with a Home Office source telling The Sunday Times that the threat from Tehran “worries us the most.” In February, Metropolitan Police Assistant Commissioner Matt Jukes said five schemes by Iran to assassinate, kidnap or intimidate people in the UK had been stopped in the first few months of 2023. “It’s a big issue because they are getting much more aggressive and their appetite is increasing,” the source said. “They are very defensive to anyone challenging their regime and just want to stamp it out. They are increasing their agitation.”According to The Sunday Times’ report, the regime in Tehran has close links with the Islamic Students Association of Britain, which is based at a former Methodist church in west London. Its former chairman, Mohammad Hussain Ataee, attended a conference in Tehran where he met Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the report added. According to an investigation by the Jewish Chronicle, the students’ association last week hosted online discussions seen by thousands of viewers between senior commanders from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Muslim students at British universities, where eight IRGC representatives are alleged to have made speeches containing antisemitic statements. In response, the association said: “All our activities are clearly lawful. It would appear that you are singling out yet another Muslim group for some kind of inquisition simply because they have chosen to exercise their right to freedom of speech, freedom of thought and freedom to practice their religion, rights that are established in both domestic and international law.”The UK government last month decided against proscribing the IRGC as a terrorist organization for fear of permanently harming diplomatic relations, but announced plans for a new regime of sanctions against Iran, including expanded powers to target key decision makers in Tehran. The new powers allow British ministers to sanction individuals for activities within the UK, not just in Iran. But the UK government has come under pressure to follow its partners in the US and Canada in labeling the IRGC a terrorist organization. “(It’s important) our domestic security needs are given proper weight,” former MI5 chief Lord Evans of Weardale said. “Perceived diplomatic interests have sometimes been given precedence in the past. For instance, with regard to Russian activists, and we shouldn’t repeat that mistake.” Alicia Kearns, chairman of the foreign affairs committee, said: “The proscription of the IRGC would allow us to prosecute those working on its behalf to sow discord, incite hatred and support terror activities and assassinations on British soil. “There is more and more evidence of the IRGC’s campaigns of transnational repression — we cannot afford not to act.”

Terror attacks kill 6 soldiers in northwestern Syria
AFP/August 07, 2023
BEIRUT: Six members of Syrian regime forces were killed on Sunday in attacks on regime positions in the conflict-torn country’s northwest, the last main bastion of armed opposition, a war monitor said. “Six regime forces, including two officers, were killed and two others wounded” in three attacks by extremist group Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham or HTS and allied factions, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said. The attacks targeted regime positions in Latakia province, said the Britain-based group which relies on a vast network of sources on the ground. Swaths of Idlib province as well as adjacent parts of Latakia, Hama and Aleppo provinces are controlled by HTS, which is led by Syria’s former Al-Qaeda affiliate. The war in Syria broke out in 2011 after the repression of peaceful anti-regime demonstrations escalated into a deadly conflict that pulled in foreign powers and global jihadists. With Russian and Iranian support, the government of Syrian President Bashar Assad has clawed back much of the territory it had lost to rebels early in the conflict. Since 2020, a ceasefire deal brokered by Moscow and Ankara has largely held in Syria’s northwest, despite periodic clashes. The 12-year-long war has killed more than half a million people and displaced millions. On Saturday, the Observatory said three family members, all civilians, were killed and six other people wounded when Russian warplanes struck the outskirts of the city of Idlib. The monitor said Sunday that the strikes had targeted a former HTS base nearby, adding that the extremists had abandoned the site several weeks earlier.

Israel's Netanyahu says he will likely advance legislation to change judges selection committee
JERUSALEM (Reuters)/August 6, 2023
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was quoted as saying on Sunday that he would work to change the committee that selects judges, amid a wave of protests over planned legislation which could see the highest court stripped of many of its powers. Asked about the next phase of legislation on the judiciary, Netanyahu said "it would probably be about the composition of the committee that elects judges". He told Bloomberg: "That's basically what's left.""Because other things I think we should not legislate," he said, without elaborating. Proponents of the legislation say it restores balance to the branches of government, while those against say it removes checks on government powers. The planned judicial overhaul has sparked national protests and criticism at home and abroad. Last month, the coalition passed legislation that removed the court's power to strike down government actions based on the action being classified as "unreasonable". Netanyahu told Bloomberg he did not want the government intervening in decisions made by the central bank and would consider asking the current director to stay on.

Israeli Security Forces Shot Dead 3 Palestinian Gunmen, Israeli Police Say
News Agencies/August 06/2023
Israeli security forces shot dead three Palestinian gunmen in the occupied West Bank on Sunday, Israeli police said in a statement. The statement said special forces "thwarted a squad from the Jenin refugee camp that was on its way to carry out an attack".Hazem Qassem, a Hamas Gaza spokesman, said the deaths would not go unpunished. "The enemy, which assassinated three of our Palestinian people, will not escape paying the price of its crimes," he said in a statement.The Israeli police statement said the head of an armed squad who was "involved in military action against Israeli security forces and advancing military activity directed by terrorists in the Gaza Strip," had been killed along with two other squad members.

Israelis take to streets again to protest judicial overhaul
Updated 06 August 2023
TEL AVIV: Thousands of Israelis demonstrated on Saturday in Tel Aviv and other cities against the hard-right government’s judicial overhaul opponents see as a threat to democracy. The reform package has split the nation and triggered one of the biggest protest movements in Israel’s history since being unveiled in January by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s governing coalition, which includes extreme-right and ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties. Demonstrators have kept up pressure on the Netanyahu government with weekly protests across the country. Several thousand protesters gathered on Saturday in the commercial hub Tel Aviv, Israeli media reported. Some were waving Israeli flags and chanting “Democracy, democracy.”The government views the reform, which would give politicians more power over the courts, as a necessary step to curb overreach by unelected judges. Opponents of the overhaul fear it may lead to more authoritarian government. Parliament last month passed the first key component of the reform package, which limits judicial oversight of some government decisions. Netanyahu, who is fighting corruption charges in court, has said he would be willing to negotiate with the opposition though previous mediation efforts have failed. In any case, the legislation will not move forward before parliament returns from summer recess in October.

Israel to demolish Palestinian gunman's home after Tel Aviv attack
Associated Press/August 06, 2023
The Israeli military on Sunday prepped the family home of a Palestinian gunman for demolition, a day after he killed an Israeli security guard in an attack. On Saturday a Palestinian gunman shot and killed 42-year-old security guard Chen Amir in central Tel Aviv. The attacker, identified by police as 27-year-old Kamel Abu Bakr, was shot at the scene and died later in hospital. Amir's funeral was expected to take place Sunday. Saturday's shooting came a day after two Israeli settlers were arrested on suspicion of killing a Palestinian man in the West Bank on Friday night. Palestinian officials said armed settlers entered the West Bank village of Burqa and shot 19-year-old Qusai Matan. The army said the Israeli settlers arrived in the area to herd sheep, leading to clashes between Israelis and Palestinians from the village. Israeli media reported that one of the suspects in the incident, Elisha Yered, was a former aide to an ultranationalist lawmaker in the "Jewish Power" party, one of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's key coalition partners. The shooting is part of an escalation of settler attacks on Palestinian civilians in recent months, and several Israeli commentators warned Sunday that assailants felt emboldened by fellow ultranationalists in key positions in government. The Israeli military said troops measured the home of the Palestinian attacker ahead of its demolition in the village of Rumana, near the restive West Bank city of Jenin. Israel says home demolitions are meant to deter future attackers but critics say they amount to collective punishment against the families of assailants and only exacerbate tensions with Palestinians. In the right-leaning Hebrew-language daily Israel Hayom, pundit Yoav Limor wrote that there are "armed Jewish militias that are operating like terrorist groups in Samaria," referring to the West Bank by its biblical name. "If the state of Israel doesn't come to its senses and stop them immediately, the damage they will do is far more dangerous than any terror attack of the enemy," he said. Last month Jenin's refugee camp was the scene of the largest Israeli offensive in the West Bank in nearly two decades. Twelve Palestinians, including at least eight militants, and one Israeli soldier, were killed in the fighting, which forced thousands to flee their homes and left extensive destruction. Violence has spiraled in the northern West Bank with the rise of shooting attacks by Palestinian groups against Israelis and daily arrest raids by the Israeli military, and growing attacks by extremist Jewish settlers. The surge in fighting is one of the worst between Israelis and Palestinians in nearly two decades. More than 160 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli fire since the start of 2023 in the West Bank and east Jerusalem, according to a tally by The Associated Press. Israel says most killed have been militants, but stone-throwing youths protesting army raids and innocent bystanders have also been killed. At least 26 people have been killed in Palestinian attacks against Israelis so far this year. Israel captured the West Bank in the 1967 Mideast war, along with the Gaza Strip and east Jerusalem. Palestinians seek those territories for their hoped-for independent state.

US, UN-sanctioned Houthi Air Force and Air Defense Force commander dies
Arab News/August 06, 2023
AL-MUKALLA: The Houthis announced on Sunday that Ahmed Ali Al-Hamzi, commander of the militia’s Air Force and Air Defense Force, had died after “suffering from illness.”The announcement came as local media outlets reported that the Houthis had arranged funeral processions for over 100 fighters killed on the battlefield since the beginning of July. In 2021, the US Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control sanctioned Al-Hamzi for smuggling drones and other weapons from Iran to Yemen and receiving military training in Iran. The US accused the Houthi commander of orchestrating drone and missile strikes against Yemeni civilians, neighboring countries, and commercial ships in international waters. Last year, the UN Security Council also imposed sanctions on Al-Hazmi, accusing him of violating the international arms embargo on Yemen by smuggling unmanned aerial vehicles and other weapons into the country, as well as conducting drone attacks in Yemen, cross-border attacks on neighboring countries, and attacks on international ships off the Yemeni coasts. Meanwhile, despite the cessation of hostilities since the beginning of 2022, when the UN-brokered ceasefire went into effect, the Houthis buried more than 100 fighters killed in fighting with Yemeni government forces since the beginning of July, Yemeni media said. Based on Houthi mourning notes on their official media, Al-Masdar Online, a Yemeni news site, reported that the Houthis held funerals for 103 warriors between July 1 and Aug. 3, increasing the total number of deceased Houthi fighters since the beginning of the year to 4,040.  Thirty-two Houthi fighters were buried in Sanaa, followed by 12 in Dhammar, 10 in Saada, and 10 in Taiz. The remaining Houthi combatants were buried in Amran, Hodeidah, Ibb, and other Yemeni provinces. In October, the Houthis refused to extend the ceasefire and resumed military operations across the country, albeit on a smaller scale. Three Yemeni soldiers were killed in clashes with Houthis who attacked their position in Lahj’s Yafae on Friday morning.

Deadline arrives for Niger's junta to reinstate president as residents brace for worse
Associated Press/August 07, 2023
The deadline has arrived Sunday for Niger's military junta to reinstate the country's ousted president, but the West Africa regional bloc that has threatened a military intervention faces prominent appeals to pursue more peaceful means. Neighboring Nigeria's Senate on Saturday pushed back against the plan by the regional bloc known as ECOWAS, urging Nigeria's president, the bloc's current chair, to explore options other than the use of force. ECOWAS can still move ahead, as final decisions are taken by consensus by member states, but the warning on the eve of Sunday's deadline raised questions about the intervention's fate. Algeria and Chad, non-ECOWAS neighbors with strong militaries in the region, both have said they oppose the use of force or won't intervene militarily, and neighboring Mali and Burkina Faso - both run by juntas - have said an intervention would be a "declaration of war" against them, too. The coup is perhaps the most challenging one so far for the West Africa region struggling with military takeovers, Islamic extremism and a shift by some states toward Russia and its proxy, the Wagner mercenary group. Niger's ousted President Mohamed Bazoum said he is held "hostage" by the mutinous soldiers. An ECOWAS delegation was unable to meet with the junta's leader, Gen. Abdourahmane Tchiani, who analysts have asserted led the coup to avoid being fired. Now the junta has reached out to Wagner for assistance while severing security ties with former colonizer France. Hours before Sunday's deadline, hundreds of youth joined security forces in the darkened streets in Niger's capital, Niamey to stand guard at a dozen roundabouts until morning, checking cars for weapons and heeding the junta's call to watch out for foreign intervention and spies. "I'm here to support the military. We are against (the regional bloc). We will fight to the end. We do not agree with what France is doing against us. We are done with colonization," said Ibrahim Nudirio, one of the residents on patrol. Some passing cars honked in support. Some people called for solidarity among African nations. It was not immediately clear on Sunday what ECOWAS will do next. The regional bloc shouldn't have given the junta a one-week deadline to reinstate Bazoum but rather only up to 48 hours, said Peter Pham, former U.S. special envoy for West Africa's Sahel region and a distinguished fellow at the Atlantic Council. "Now it's dragged out, which gives the junta time to entrench itself," he said.
The most favorable scenario for an intervention would be a force coming in with the help of those on the inside, he said. The coup is a major blow to the United States and allies who saw Niger as the last major counterterrorism partner in the Sahel, a vast area south of the Sahara Desert where jihadists linked to al-Qaida and the Islamic State group have been expanding their range and beginning to threaten coastal states like Benin, Ghana and Togo. The United States, France and European countries have poured hundreds of millions of dollars of military assistance into Niger. France has 1,500 soldiers in the country, though their fate is now in question. The U.S. has 1,100 military personnel also in Niger where they operate an important drone base in the city of Agadez. While Niger's coup leaders have claimed they acted because of growing insecurity, conflict incidents decreased by nearly 40% in the country compared to the previous six-month period, according to the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data project. That's in contrast to surging attacks in Mali, which has kicked out French forces and partnered with Wagner, and Burkina Faso, which has gotten rid of French forces as well. The uncertainty in Niger is worsening daily life for some 25 million people in one of the world's poorest countries. Food prices are rising after ECOWAS imposed economic and travel sanctions following the coup. Nigeria, which supplies up to 90% of the electricity in Niger, has cut off some of the supply.
Humanitarian groups in Niger have warned of "devastating effects" on the lives of over 4.4 million people needing aid. Some of Niger's already struggling residents said military intervention is not the answer. "Just to eat is a problem for us. So if there is a war, that won't fix anything," said Mohamed Noali, a Niamey resident patrolling the streets.

Niger junta closes air space citing ‘threat of intervention’
AFP/August 07, 2023
NIAMEY: Niger’s military rulers announced Sunday that they had closed the country’s airspace, warning that any attempt to violate it would meet with an “energetic and immediate response.”“Faced with the threat of intervention, which is becoming clearer through the preparation of neighboring countries, Niger’s airspace is closed from this day on Sunday... for all aircraft until further notice,” the country’s new rulers said in a statement. The announcement came as the deadline from the West African bloc ECOWAS for them to hand back power to the democratically elected President Mohamed Bazoum was due to expire. ECOWAS last Sunday issued Niger’s new military rulers with an ultimatum to stand down within the week or face possible military intervention. Bazoum was overthrown on July 26 when members of his own guard detained him at the presidency.

Niger military on brink of deadline to reverse coup
AFP/August 06, 2023
NIAMEY: Pressure on the leaders of a coup in Niger mounted Sunday with the approach of the west African bloc’s deadline for the military to relinquish control or face possible armed intervention. The ECOWAS bloc, chaired by regional military powerhouse and Niger’s neighbor Nigeria, had given the troops that toppled President Mohamed Bazoum on July 26 a week to return him to power. ECOWAS military chiefs of staff have agreed on a plan for a possible intervention to respond to the crisis, the latest of several coups to hit Africa’s Sahel region since 2020. “We want diplomacy to work, and we want this message clearly transmitted to them (the military) that we are giving them every opportunity to reverse what they have done,” ECOWAS commissioner Abdel-Fatau Musah said on Friday. But he warned that “all the elements that will go into any eventual intervention have been worked out,” including how and when force would be deployed. Niger’s military leaders have said they will meet force with force. In the dusty alleyways of Niamey’s Boukoki neighborhood, the prospect of an armed intervention by ECOWAS is met with defiance. “We’re going to fight for this revolution. We’re not going to retreat faced with the enemy, we’re determined,” said Boukoki resident Adama Oumarou. “We were waiting for this coup for a long time. When it arrived, we breathed a sigh of relief,” she said. Algeria, itself an economic and military power on the continent which shares a long land border with Niger, has warned against a military solution. “We categorically refuse any military intervention,” Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune said in a television interview Saturday evening, adding that such action would be “a direct threat to Algeria.” He stressed “there will be no solution without us (Algeria). We are the first people affected.” “Algeria shares nearly a thousand kilometers” of border with Niger, he said. “What is the situation today in countries that have experienced military intervention?” he said, pointing to Libya and Syria. Former colonial power France, with which Niger’s new rulers broke military ties after taking power, said it would “firmly” back whatever course of action ECOWAS took after the deadline expired. Niger has played a key part in Western strategies to combat militant insurgencies that have plagued the Sahel since 2012, with France and the United States stationing around 1,500 and 1,000 troops in the country, respectively.
Yet anti-French sentiment in the region is on the rise, while Russian activity, often through the Wagner mercenary group, has grown. Moscow has warned against armed intervention from outside Niger. Niger, one of the poorest countries in the world, relies heavily on foreign aid that could be pulled if Bazoum is not reinstated as head of state, Paris has warned. Bazoum, 63, has been held by the coup leaders with his family in his official Niamey residence since July 26. In a column in The Washington Post on Thursday — his first lengthy statement since his detention — Bazoum said a successful putsch would “have devastating consequences for our country, our region and the entire world.” Bazoum won an election in 2021 that ushered in Niger’s first-ever transfer of power from one civilian government to another. Nigeria has cut electricity supplies to its neighbor Niger, raising fears for the humanitarian situation, while Niamey has closed the vast Sahel country’s borders, complicating food deliveries. Senior Nigerian politicians have urged President Bola Tinubu to reconsider the threatened military intervention.

Russia rejects peace agreement, insisting its war in Ukraine will rage on 'for the foreseeable future'
Charles R. Davis/August 6, 2023
person in crowd of Ukraine flags holding blue-and-yellow sign that says "Stop War" A demonstrator holds a sign during a peaceful stand for Ukraine rally in Russia has no interest in a peace agreement at this time, an official told The New York Times. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said there are "currently no grounds" for a deal with Ukraine. "We will continue the operation for the foreseeable future," Peskov said. Moscow has no interest in any proposed deal to end the war in Ukraine, a Kremlin spokesperson told the New York Times in an interview published Sunday. The admission, which was promoted by Russian state media, comes amid claims by some American politicians that the United States could broker an agreement by withholding arms and urging Ukraine to make territorial concessions. "There are currently no grounds for an agreement," the Kremlin's Dmitry Peskov told The New York Times. "We will continue the operation for the foreseeable future." Russia had previously accused the US and other Western governments of undermining efforts to negotiate an end to hostilities. The rejection of a peace deal comes as critics of US military aid to Kyiv — including former President Donald Trump — have insisted that such an agreement could be quickly reached, especially if Ukraine were pressured to make concessions. It also follows a summit in Saudi Arabia over the weekend, where involving diplomats from countries such as China, India, and the US — but not Russia — discussed the war. There, Ukraine pitched a 10-point peace plan that calls for the withdrawal of all Russian forces from its territory. Russia has flatly rejected calls for it to leave Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin has described the country as a fiction that wrongly gained independence following the collapse of the Soviet Union. Last September, he also announced the illegal annexation of four regions in eastern Ukraine, stating that their residents "will become Russian citizens forever," a claim made despite the fact that Russia does not control large swaths of the territory in question. Speaking to the Times, Peskov claimed that Russia has no intention of trying to annex all of the country. However, Russian officials have also previously said they cannot tolerate an independent Ukraine that aligns itself with the West. "We just want to control all the land we have now written into our constitution as ours," he said. Have a news tip? Email this reporter: cdavis@insider.com

Drone downed over Moscow as Ukraine hit with missile, drone barrage
Agence France Presse/Associated Press/August 6, 2023
Moscow mayor Sergei Sobyanin said Sunday that Russian air defense had destroyed a drone nearing the capital, which had been rarely targeted throughout the conflict in Ukraine until several attacks this year. "Today at around 11 am (0800 GMT) a drone attempted to make a breakthrough toward Moscow. It was destroyed while approaching by air defense forces," Sobyanin said on Telegram. The Russian defense ministry said the Ukrainian drone was destroyed over the Podolsky district in the Moscow region. "There were no casualties or damage," the ministry said. Temporary restrictions that had been introduced at Moscow's Vnukovo international airport were lifted, Russian-state run news agency RIA Novosti said. This week drones targeted Moscow, damaging an office block as the capital's main business district was struck twice in a few days. The Kremlin said on Monday that "all possible measures have been taken to defend civil infrastructure" against Ukrainian strikes. Three people meanwhile died during a night of air strikes and intense shelling across Ukraine, officials said Sunday, as Kyiv's military exchanged fire with Russian occupation forces. Two people were killed and four more were injured following a Russian air strike in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region, said the head of the local regional military administration, Oleh Syniehubov. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that a guided bomb had hit a blood transfusion center in the area’s Kupyan district late on August 5. “This war crime alone says everything about Russian aggression,” Zelenskyy wrote on social media. “Defeating terrorists is a matter of honor for everyone who values life.”A woman in her eighties was also killed by Ukrainian shelling in the Russian-held Donetsk, the city’s Moscow-appointed mayor Alexei Kulemzin said Sunday. The attack also set alight the main building of the M. Tugan-Baranovsky University of Economics and Trade, said the Moscow-installed head of the illegally annexed Donetsk People’s Republic, Denis Pushilin. Russia’s Emergency Situations Ministry said that the blaze caused the building’s roof to collapse, but that there were no casualties. Alongside shelling in the country’s east, the Ukrainian air force reported Sunday that Russian forces had launched 70 attack drones and air and sea missiles overnight. The bombardment reportedly included cruise missiles launched from aircraft over the Caspian Sea and Iranian-made Shahed-136/131 strike UAVs. Serhiy Tyurin, deputy head of Ukraine’s Khmelnytsky region military administration, said Sunday that Russian missiles had damaged several buildings in the area, injuring one and sparking a fire in a warehouse.

At least half of the 30,000 elite paratroopers Russia deployed in Ukraine have been killed or wounded, UK intel says
Sophia Ankel/Business Insider/August 6, 2023
Half of Russia's elite paratroopers in Ukraine have been killed or wounded in battle, UK intel said. This comes after a top Russian general's admission of paratrooper casualties was deleted.It is unclear how exactly the figures were calculated by the British intelligence service. Half of Russia's elite paratroopers in Ukraine have been killed or wounded in battle, UK intelligence said on Sunday, after a top general's rare admission of casualties was mysteriously deleted. In its latest daily intelligence update, the British Ministry of Defense said that at least 50 percent of the 30,000 Russian paratroopers deployed to Ukraine "have been killed or wounded" since the start of Moscow's full-scale invasion more than 17 months ago. The number was extrapolated from comments made by the commander of Russia's VDV Airborne Forces, Col. Gen. Mikhail Teplinsky, in a video message earlier this week, the update said. In the video, which was originally published by Zvezda — a broadcaster run by the Russian Ministry of Defense — Teplinsky said at least 8,500 of his troops had been wounded fighting in Ukraine. "More than 5,000 wounded paratroopers returned to the front after treatment, and more than 3,500 of our wounded refused to leave the front line," Teplinsky said. He did not reveal how many of his paratroopers had been killed in combat. It is unclear how exactly the figures were calculated by the British intelligence service. A spokesperson did not immediately respond to Insider's request for comment. Teplinsky video was eventually removed without explanation several hours later, likely at the request of the Kremlin's military leadership, Insider's Jake Epstein previously reported. Neither Ukraine nor Russia provide official counts of their own losses in the war. However, there have been previous reports of Russian paratroopers suffering heavy casualties in Ukraine due to poorly designed vehicles and lack of adequate air-defense systems. An independent analysis by the BBC Russian Service estimated that at least 1,840 members of Russia's airborne forces — including over 320 officers — had died in Ukraine as of late July. Insider was not able to immediately verify these figures. Russia's airborne force is actually a separate military branch that serves as shock troops and a rapid-intervention force. It used to be highly regarded in the military.

Ukraine Says Blood Transfusion Center Hit in Russian Attacks; Crimea Bridges Hit
Asharq Al Awsat/August 06/2023
Ukraine said Russia bombed a blood transfusion center near the front line in a wave of air strikes overnight while Moscow reported that it had shot down a drone heading to the capital on Sunday in the third such attack in a week. Both countries have stepped up attacks on each other's troops, weaponry and infrastructure supporting the war as Ukraine seeks to dislodge Russian forces who have dug in across southern and eastern Ukraine since their invasion last year. The Moscow-appointed head of Crimea said the Chonhar bridge to the peninsula, which was annexed from Ukraine by Moscow in 2014, had been damaged by a missile strike. Another of the three road links between Crimea and Russian-occupied parts of mainland Ukraine, near the town of Henichesk, was shelled and a civilian driver wounded, a Moscow-appointed official said. Traffic was halted on a third bridge, linking Russia to Crimea, after both sides said a Ukrainian naval drone full of explosives struck a Russian fuel tanker vessel overnight from Friday to Saturday, the second such attack in 24 hours. The attacks are making it increasingly hard to get on and off the Black Sea peninsula, which is of military importance to Moscow as well as a popular tourist destination for Russians. Inside Russia, Moscow's Vnukovo airport suspended flights on Sunday, citing unspecified reasons outside its control. Vnukovo imposed similar suspensions when Moscow was attacked by drones last week. Moscow mayor Sergei Sobyanin said a drone had been shot down on Sunday south of the capital. At least 10 Russian missiles appear to have got through Ukraine's air defenses in the overnight attack, which Ukraine's air force said involved 70 air assault weapons including cruise and hypersonic missiles as well as Iranian-made drones.
Local media said a worker at a grain silo had been wounded and a rescuer died during a rescue operation. The attacks followed what President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said was a bomb attack on a blood transfusion center in the town of Kupiansk, a railway hub around 16 km (10 miles) from the front in the eastern Kharkiv region. "There are dead and wounded," he said on his Telegram channel, adding that rescue workers were extinguishing a fire at the scene and describing the strike as a "war crime". He did not say how many casualties there were or whether they were military or civilian. Reuters could not immediately verify the report. Russia denies deliberately targeting civilians or military hospitals in its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which has killed thousands of people, uprooted millions and destroyed cities. Russia's defense ministry said it had conducted successful strikes on Ukrainian air bases in the western Rivne and Khmelnytskyi regions and southern Zaporizhzhia region, without giving details. Ukraine's air force said it destroyed 30 out of 40 cruise missiles and all 27 of the Shahed drones that Russia launched overnight. It also said Russia launched three Kinzhal hypersonic missiles, but did not disclose any further information on them. It was not clear what happened to the 10 cruise missiles that were not shot down. The deputy governor of the Khmelnytskyi region, Serhiy Tiurin, said a military airfield in Starokostiantyniv was among the targets. He said most of the missiles were shot down, but explosions had damaged several houses, a cultural institution and the bus station and a fire had broken out at a grain silo. "Now, it is the Starokostiantyniv airfield that haunts the enemy," Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Yuriy Ihnat said. Russia had targeted the airfield at the end of July.
Pipeline leak
Poland halted oil flows through one part of the Druzhba pipeline carrying oil from Russia to Europe after detecting a leak, the latest hitch to energy flows since Russia invaded Ukraine. There was no indication of the cause and Germany said oil supplies were secure. Poland said it expected oil to flow again on Tuesday. Ukraine is two months into a grueling counteroffensive to try to push out Russian forces occupying almost a fifth of its territory in the south and east. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said late last month that while Ukraine had recaptured half the territory that Russia had initially seized, the Ukrainian counteroffensive was in its early days and would take shape over "several months". Another sea drone attack on Russia's navy base at Novorossiysk damaged a warship on Friday, the first time the Ukrainian navy had projected its power so far from its shores. Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev suggested Moscow would launch more strikes against Ukrainian ports in response to Kyiv's attacks on Russian ships in the Black Sea, and threatened to hand Ukraine "an ecological catastrophe". Zelenskiy's aide Mykhailo Podoliak characterized the overnight Russian missile attacks as a response to Ukraine's overtures to Global South countries that have been reluctant to take sides in a conflict that has hurt the global economy.

Germany has only delivered 10% of the Leopard 1 tanks it promised Ukraine as part of a $3 billion deal, report says
Alia Shoaib/Business Insider/August 6, 2023T
Germany pledged Ukraine almost $3 billion worth of military aid in May. However, many of the supplies are yet to arrive, German newspaper Die Welt reported. Only 10 of the 110 promised Leopard 1 tanks have been delivered so far, the report says.Germany has delivered only around 10% of the Leopard 1 tanks that it promised to Ukraine as part of a package it announced in May, German newspaper Die Welt reported. The country had agreed to a 2.7 billion-euro, which is around $3 billion, military aid package with Ukraine during Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's visit earlier this year. Die Welt tracked the progress of the deliveries and kept an account of the promised and delivered equipment, which is published online by the German government. The outlet found that in the last two months Berlin has sent Kyiv just 10 of 110 promised Leopard 1 tanks and 12 of 18 Gepard anti-aircraft tanks. Ukraine is also yet to receive any of the four promised IRIS-T missile defense systems or the 20 Marder armored vehicles, while roughly just 850 of the 26,350 155 mm artillery shells promised have been delivered. The package also included several hundred drones, air surveillance radars, tankers, ambulances, and heavy-duty articulated lorries. Die Welt noted that it was possible that the weapons commitment may be "withdrawn," citing the example of 5,032 anti-tank handguns that had been listed as being prepared to be sent to Ukraine since the early months of the war, which have now disappeared off the site without any explanation. It is not clear why Germany is dragging its feet over sending the weapons, although it was also slow to provide Ukraine with military aid at the beginning of the war. Despite that, it has since become one of Kyiv's biggest arms suppliers. After months of pressure, Germany finally agreed to send 88 Leopard 1 tanks and around 80 Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine earlier this year.

Ukraine calls Jeddah talks productive, Russia calls them doomed
Reuters/Sun, August 6, 2023
A senior Ukrainian official said on Sunday that talks in Saudi Arabia to make headway towards a peaceful settlement of the war with Russia had been productive, but Moscow called the meeting a doomed attempt to swing the Global South behind Kyiv. More than 40 countries, including China, India, the United States, and European countries, but not Russia, are taking part in the Jeddah talks that are expected to end on Sunday without any written concluding statement. Ukraine and its allies have said the talks are an attempt to secure broad international support for principles that Kyiv wants to be the basis for peace, including the withdrawal of all Russian troops and the return of all Ukrainian territory to its control. President Volodymir Zelenskiy has said he wants a global summit to take place based on those principles later this year. Eighteen months after Russia invaded Ukraine, any prospect of direct peace talks between Kyiv and Moscow appears remote. Speaking about the Jeddah talks, Zelenskiy's head of staff Andriy Yermak said in a statement: "We had very productive consultations on the key principles on which a just and lasting peace should be built."Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov was quoted by state media on Sunday as saying the meeting was "a reflection of the West's attempt to continue futile, doomed efforts" to mobilise the Global South behind Zelenskiy's position. While Western countries have broadly backed Ukraine, many other states have been reluctant to take sides even though they want an end to a conflict that has hit the global economy. The participation of China, which stayed away from an earlier round of talks in Copenhagen and has shunned Western calls to condemn Russia's invasion, signalled a possible shift in its stance but not a major change, analysts said. Western diplomats have also emphasised Saudi Arabia's role in convening a wider group of countries to take part, utilising its growing relationship with Beijing and its continued ties with both Moscow and Kyiv. Yermak said different viewpoints emerged during the talks in Saudi Arabia, calling them "an extremely honest, open conversation". He said all the countries present had demonstrated a commitment to the principles of international law and respect for the sovereignty and inviolability of the territorial integrity of states.

Ukraine strikes Chonhar bridge to Crimea, RIA reports
Reuters/Sun, August 6, 2023
The Chonhar road bridge linking mainland Ukraine to Crimea was damaged by a Ukrainian missile strike on Sunday, Russia's RIA news agency cited the Moscow-appointed head of Crimea, Sergei Aksyonov, as saying. RIA cited acting Kherson regional governor Vladimir Saldo -- another Moscow appointee -- as saying the strike on the bridge, one of three road links between Crimea and mainland Ukraine, involved an Anglo-French Storm Shadow missile. He did not provide any evidence. Both officials said the bridge was closed for repairs. In June Ukraine struck the same bridge, which lies on a route used by the Russian military to move between Crimea and other parts of Ukraine under its control. Saldo also wrote in his Telegram channel that another of the road links, a small bridge across the Tonky Strait linking the town of Henichesk with the narrow Arabat Spit on Crimea's northeast coast, had been shelled and that a civilian driver had been wounded. It was not clear whether traffic on the bridge had been suspended. He said a gas pipeline running alongside the bridge serving Henichesk, the temporary administrative centre of the Russian-controlled part of the Kherson region, had also been damaged, leaving more than 20,000 people without gas. The attacks are making it increasingly hard to get on and off the peninsula, which Russia seized from Ukraine in 2014 and is of military importance to Moscow as well as a popular tourist destination for Russians. On July 17, an attack attributed by Ukrainian media to Ukrainian sea drones damaged the Russian-built Crimean Bridge, which links the peninsula eastward to southern Russia, for the second time in less than a year, severely restricting road traffic during the summer holiday season. In the early hours of Saturday, a Ukrainian sea drone full of explosives damaged a Russian fuel tanker near the Crimean Bridge, the second such attack in 24 hours.

China, Russia send warships near Alaska; US responds with Navy destroyers
Dinah Voyles Pulver and Alia Wong, USA TODAY/August 6, 2023
Eleven military vessels from China and Russia found operating near the Aleutian Islands earlier this week were met by four U.S. Navy destroyers, Alaska’s two U.S. senators said. The two Republican senators, Dan Sullivan and Lisa Murkowski, issued a joint news release Saturday night saying they had been briefed about the operation. "We have been in close contact with leadership from Alaska Command for several days now and received detailed classified briefings about the foreign vessels," Murkowski said. "The incursion by 11 Chinese and Russian warships operating together – off the coast of Alaska – is yet another reminder that we have entered a new era of authoritarian aggression led by the dictators in Beijing and Moscow," Sullivan said. The war in Ukraine and China-Taiwan tensions have strained U.S. relations with the two countries. "This move is highly provocative," Brent Sadler, a retired Navy captain and senior research fellow at the right-leaning Heritage Foundation, told The Wall Street Journal. The combined force didn't appear to enter U.S. territory, however. “Air and maritime assets under our commands conducted operations to assure the defense of the United States and Canada. The patrol remained in international waters and was not considered a threat,” the U.S. Northern Command told the Journal in a statement. The command did not immediately respond to USA TODAY's request for comment, nor did the State Department. The Chinese and Russian embassies could not be reached either. Baked Alasa: Climate change's extreme heat is warming the state, and creating national security problems.
Have other joint exercises taken place in the area?
This is at least the third year in a row that Chinese naval ships have sailed in or near waters off the Aleutian islands in the Bering Sea and North Pacific Ocean. A similar joint exercise took place last year. In September 2022, the U.S. Coast Guard reported the crew of the cutter Kimball, during a routine patrol in the Bering Sea, encountered a People's Republic of China guided missile cruiser off Alaska’s Kiska Island. The crew later identified two more Chinese naval ships and four Russian naval vessels, including a destroyer.At the time, Coast Guard Rear Adm. Nathan Moore said the formation was operating in accordance with international rules and norms but would be met "presence-with-presence to ensure there are no disruptions to U.S. interests in the maritime environment around Alaska."In September 2021, Coast Guard cutters in the Bering Sea and North Pacific Ocean encountered Chinese ships, some about 50 miles off the Aleutians, according to the Associated Press.
What has been the US response?
Sullivan said he was encouraged by the Navy’s response this year, adding it "sends a strong message to Xi Jinping and Putin that the United States will not hesitate to protect and defend our vital national interests in Alaska." Last summer's response was "tepid," Sullivan said. He said he had "encouraged senior military leaders to be ready with a much more robust response should such another joint Chinese/Russian naval operation occur off our coast." The incident is "a stark reminder of Alaska’s proximity to both China and Russia, as well as the essential role our state plays in our national defense and territorial sovereignty," Murkowski said. Concerns not new over activity in the Arctic region. The U.S. Navy and others have been concerned for decades about increased military activity in the Arctic region given the warming climate and more open water as a result of melting sea ice.
The incident last summer occurred about a month after NATO had warned about China's interest in the Arctic and Russia's military buildup there. The Associated Press reported that NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said Russia had set up a new Arctic command and opened new and former Arctic military sites. Five Chinese naval ships also sailed through U.S. territorial waters off Alaska while participating in a joint exercise with Russia in September 2015.

Ukraine calls Jeddah talks productive, Russia calls them doomed
Reuters/August 6, 2023
A senior Ukrainian official said on Sunday that talks in Saudi Arabia to make headway towards a peaceful settlement of the war with Russia had been productive, but Moscow called the meeting a doomed attempt to swing the Global South behind Kyiv. More than 40 countries, including China, India, the United States, and European countries, but not Russia, are taking part in the Jeddah talks that are expected to end on Sunday without any written concluding statement. Ukraine and its allies have said the talks are an attempt to secure broad international support for principles that Kyiv wants to be the basis for peace, including the withdrawal of all Russian troops and the return of all Ukrainian territory to its control. President Volodymir Zelenskiy has said he wants a global summit to take place based on those principles later this year. Eighteen months after Russia invaded Ukraine, any prospect of direct peace talks between Kyiv and Moscow appears remote. Speaking about the Jeddah talks, Zelenskiy's head of staff Andriy Yermak said in a statement: "We had very productive consultations on the key principles on which a just and lasting peace should be built." Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov was quoted by state media on Sunday as saying the meeting was "a reflection of the West's attempt to continue futile, doomed efforts" to mobilise the Global South behind Zelenskiy's position. While Western countries have broadly backed Ukraine, many other states have been reluctant to take sides even though they want an end to a conflict that has hit the global economy. The participation of China, which stayed away from an earlier round of talks in Copenhagen and has shunned Western calls to condemn Russia's invasion, signalled a possible shift in its stance but not a major change, analysts said. Western diplomats have also emphasised Saudi Arabia's role in convening a wider group of countries to take part, utilising its growing relationship with Beijing and its continued ties with both Moscow and Kyiv. Yermak said different viewpoints emerged during the talks in Saudi Arabia, calling them "an extremely honest, open conversation". He said all the countries present had demonstrated a commitment to the principles of international law and respect for the sovereignty and inviolability of the territorial integrity of states.

US Marines gearing up to defend 'key' terrain near China are about to get a first-of-its-kind ship-hunting missile
Christopher Woody/Business Insider/August 6, 2023
Marines did a first-of-its-kind test of the Navy-Marine Expeditionary Ship Interdiction System in June. It's one of many weapons Marines are developing with the goal of controlling "key maritime terrain."Marines in California tested the Corps' new ground-based anti-ship missile in late June, just a few months before the service plans to field the weapon with a new unit in Hawaii, a milestone that reflects the Marine Corps' renewed focus on fighting alongside the US Navy to control important waterways in the Western Pacific. The test-firing of the Navy-Marine Expeditionary Ship Interdiction System, known as NMESIS, from June 27 to 29 was announced in mid-July. Marines with the 1st Marine Division "successfully launched and engaged a simulated target off the coast of Southern California," the Corps said. "NMESIS is the solution for the ground-based anti-ship missile capability," Staff Sgt. Derek Reddy, NMESIS team leader for the unit involved, said a video release. The June exercise was "absolutely imperative" and will help "set forth expectations" for the weapon's future use, Reddy added. NMESIS is meant to complement the Corps' air-launched anti-ship missiles by allowing Marines to attack ships from areas where aircraft aren't able to operate. It emerged from the force redesign initiated by Gen. David Berger in 2019, shortly after taking over as Marine Corps commandant. At that time, Berger said the Corps was "woefully behind" in developing ground-based long-range precision weapons. A ground-launched missile that can track moving ships is central to plans to control what Berger and other Corps leaders call "key maritime terrain" — like the channels connecting the South China Sea to the wider Pacific — and to deny enemies access. "The future NMESIS medium-range missile batteries are going to be operating in highly contested environments. We're shaping Marine Corps missile artillery and everything going forward" with the force-design plan, Reddy said. Work on NMESIS has moved swiftly, in part by drawing on technology that was already available. It was last tested in 2021 and has been fired three times overall.
The weapon pairs the Naval Strike Missile, which the US Navy already uses, with a launcher called the Remotely Operated Ground Unit for Expeditionary Fires, or Berger, who stepped down as commandant in July, told lawmakers in April that the Corps is transitioning most of its 155mm howitzer batteries to NMESIS-equipped medium-range missile batteries "to conduct anti-surface warfare operations as a component of an integrated naval force." The Corps has said that NMESIS will be fielded with the Hawaii-based 3rd Marine Littoral Regiment by the end of September, and it "is absolutely on track" for that, Berger said at the Modern Day Marine conference in Washington DC on June 27. While the Marine Littoral Regiment's design is still being refined, the service says it will be "task organized" around an infantry battalion and an anti-ship missile battery and be able to disperse across islands and coastlines, remaining hard to detect while coordinating with friendly forces. Marines with the 3rd MLR have already been practicing how they would employ NMESIS. During a major exercise in the Philippines in 2022, the unit conducted coastal-defense training that included passing "real-time targeting data" to HIMARS launchers standing in for NMESIS. During a major exericse in Hawaii months later, the unit simulated using NMESIS against an adversary vessel menacing a US aircraft carrier. Fielding the weapon will yield further lessons, Berger said at the conference: "What are we going to learn? One, on the offense and the defense, how do you employ that system? How do you make it part of a system of systems? How do you deter with that?"Berger added that Marines will learn how to use NMESIS on the go and to disperse the weapon — which can be operated remotely — as well as how to camouflage it in the field.
"I think the learning is going to happen really fast in 3rd MLR," Berger said. "NMESIS is going to teach us how do we control key maritime terrain — combined with the Navy, how do we do that? I think the learning begins this fall when we put it in the hands of a Marine unit."
Experts have raised doubts that NMESIS-equipped MLRs will be able to perform as expected in a conflict over Taiwan. In a series of war games conducted earlier this year by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a US think tank, participants found that political factors may prevent the unit from getting to Taiwan or the northern Philippines before a conflict and that even if it got to Taiwan, resupplying it during a conflict would likely be impossible. The war games also showed that MLR forces in Okinawa — where the Corps plans to establish its second MLR by 2025 — would have more freedom to operate but that the Naval Strike Missile's 115-mile range would limit their ability to reach Chinese ships near Taiwan. (The Navy is pursuing a Tomahawk missile that could hit maritime targets up to 1,000 miles away, which the Corps could eventually acquire.) "The problems of operating inside the Chinese defensive zone were insurmountable," the report on the war games said. Despite that skepticism, Marines have no doubt about NMESIS itself. "Oh, it hits ships," Gen. Eric Smith, who is now the Corps' acting commandant, said at the conference in June. "We've already tested it repeatedly, and it hits ships, because it's a sea-skimmer," Smith added, referring to the method of approaching a ship from the side near sea level to evade radar and other defenses.

Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on August 06-07/2023
Let Ukraine Bomb Russia
Con Coughlin/Gatestone Institute./August 6, 2023
The Ukrainian military's growing willingness to attack targets inside Russian territory is causing deep unease among some of Kyiv's Western allies, especially in Washington, where the Biden administration seems obsessed with preventing the Ukrainians from taking any action that might upset Putin.
While the White House has been reluctantly persuaded to give the go-ahead for Kyiv to be provided this equipment, the Biden administration remains reluctant to provide any kit that the Ukrainians could use to attack targets inside Russia.
Biden's failure to provide Ukraine with the weapons it requires to prevail on the battlefield, including the ability to attack targets inside Russian territory, demonstrates a fundamental lack of understanding of what is at stake in this dreadful conflict, namely the future security of the Western alliance.
A Ukrainian victory would not only inflict a devastating defeat on Putin and his authoritarian regime, it would send a signal to other autocratic regimes that they threaten the West and allies, such as Taiwan, at their peril.
Another concern that is inhibiting the Biden administration's handling of the Ukraine crisis are fears that if Putin is removed from power, he could be replaced by an ultra-nationalist who would make the threat Russia poses to global security even worse -- an eventuality that is bound to happen at some point and, to a strong US government, should probably be irrelevant.
There are also concerns about Moscow's constant threats to revert to nuclear weapons, even though this nothing more than a dangerous bluff on the part of the Kremlin, as China – among others – has made it clear it would not tolerate the use of such weapons. And without Chinese backing, Russia's predicament would be far worse.
Rather than exploring the possibility of negotiating a peace deal with Moscow, one that would inevitably betray Ukraine's sovereign integrity, Biden should be redoubling Washington's efforts to make sure that Putin's chances of surviving in power once the war is over are non-existent.
Ukraine's ability to launch attacks deep within Russian territory are vital if the Ukrainian military's counteroffensive is to stand any chance of liberating its territory from Russian occupation.
In recent days, Ukraine has launched a series of drone attacks against Russian targets, including two drone strikes against a skyscraper in central Moscow and an attempted drone strike against Russian naval ships in the Black Sea.
The skyscraper, which houses teams from Russia's Ministry of Economic Development, Ministry of Digital Development, Communications and Mass Media, and Ministry of Industry and Trade, was the target of drone strikes on two consecutive days.
Russian security officials claimed that several Ukrainian drones had been shot down by the country's air defences, but two of the aircraft succeeded in striking the target. The attacks briefly prompted the closure of Moscow's Vnukovo Airport, while staff working at the skyscraper were ordered to work from home.
Russia also claimed that three Ukrainian sea drones were destroyed while trying to attack Russian naval ships in the Black Sea.
While Kyiv has not claimed responsibility for the attacks, they are very much in line with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's recent warning that, 18 months after Russian President Vladimir Putin launched his unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, the war was now coming back to Russia. Speaking in the immediate aftermath of the drone attacks on Moscow, Zelensky said attacks on Russian territory were an "inevitable, natural and absolutely fair process" of the war between the two countries.
Ukrainian forces have launched dozens of attacks against targets located within Russian territory since the start of the year, including an alleged assassination attempt against Putin during a drone strike on the Kremlin in May.
Unlike Russia, which has regularly launched attacks against Ukraine's civilian infrastructure in an attempt to demoralise the Ukrainian people, Ukraine's attacks have been primarily focused on targeting Russian military assets, such as communications hubs and arms depots in an effort to undermine the effectiveness of Moscow's war-fighting capabilities, a perfectly legitimate undertaking under the laws of modern warfare.
Even so, the Ukrainian military's growing willingness to attack targets inside Russian territory is causing deep unease among some of Kyiv's Western allies, especially in Washington, where the Biden administration seems obsessed with preventing the Ukrainians from taking any action that might upset Putin.
From the start of the conflict, President Joe Biden has been reluctant to respond positively to Zelensky's calls to be provided with more sophisticated weaponry for fear of provoking an escalation in the conflict between Russia and the West. This has resulted in delays in providing much-needed tanks and other heavy armour as well as warplanes.
While the White House has been reluctantly persuaded to give the go-ahead for Kyiv to be provided this equipment, the Biden administration remains reluctant to provide any kit that the Ukrainians could use to attack targets inside Russia.
The latest example of the administration's squeamishness about providing Ukraine with the means to take the fight into Russian territory was its recent decision to block the delivery of the US Army's long-range Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) to Kyiv.
Expectations that Washington would send the weapons to Ukraine were raised in May when Biden said that the technology was "still in play", and the president is said to have discussed the issue of providing the weapons at the recent Nato summit in Vilnius.
According to the Washington Post, the administration has now ruled out sending the missiles on the grounds that it could deplete US missile stocks, and also fears that the conflict could escalate out of control if Ukraine fired the weapons into Russian territory.
Biden's failure to provide Ukraine with the weapons it requires to prevail on the battlefield, including the ability to attack targets inside Russian territory, demonstrates a fundamental lack of understanding of what is at stake in this dreadful conflict, namely the future security of the Western alliance.
A Ukrainian victory would not only inflict a devastating defeat on Putin and his authoritarian regime, it would send a signal to other autocratic regimes that they threaten the West and allies, such as Taiwan, at their peril.
Rather than pulling their punches, which is the Biden administration's current approach, the US and its allies should be straining every sinew to ensure that Zelensky has all the means at his disposal to achieve total victory over his Russian adversary.
The weakness of Putin's domestic position, moreover, in the wake of the failed Wagner Group's coup against Moscow is another factor that the Biden administration needs to take into account as they weigh up their options over Ukraine.
Another concern that is inhibiting the Biden administration's handling of the Ukraine crisis are fears that if Putin is removed from power, he could be replaced by an ultra-nationalist who would make the threat Russia poses to global security even worse -- an eventuality that is bound to happen at some point and, to a strong US government, should probably be irrelevant.
There are also concerns about Moscow's constant threats to revert to nuclear weapons, even though this nothing more than a dangerous bluff on the part of the Kremlin, as China – among others – has made it clear it would not tolerate the use of such weapons. And without Chinese backing, Russia's predicament would be far worse.
Rather than exploring the possibility of negotiating a peace deal with Moscow, one that would inevitably betray Ukraine's sovereign integrity, Biden should be redoubling Washington's efforts to make sure that Putin's chances of surviving in power once the war is over are non-existent.
*Con Coughlin is the Telegraph's Defence and Foreign Affairs Editor and a Distinguished Senior Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
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The Left: What Is Left of It?
Amir Taheri/Asharq Al-Awsat/August 6, 2023
Today, we have no extreme right or far-right parties in Europe; we only have "populist" parties that have established themselves as parties of government in more than half of the European Union. Solidly based social democratic regimes in such places as Scandinavia and Finland have been dethroned by coalitions led by "populist" parties.
Since the 1980s, European political parties such as the Alliance for the Future of Austria, founded by Jörg Haider, and the National Front, founded by Jean-Marie Le Pen, have broadened their electoral base and forced their opponents, that is to say the traditional social democratic left and conservative right, to drop the labels they had used against them. The label "extreme right" became "far-right" and, currently, replaced by "populist."
Today, we have no extreme right or far-right parties in Europe; we only have "populist" parties that have established themselves as parties of government in more than half of the European Union. Solidly based social democratic regimes in such places as Scandinavia and Finland have been dethroned by coalitions led by "populist" parties.
Similar coalitions are in power in Estonia, Greece, Italy, Poland and Slovakia.
In Hungary, Viktor Orbán's Fidesz party is in firm command, while in Belgium, Flemish "populists" are on the rise. The latest general election in Spain has also opened the way for "populists" to gain at least a side-chair in a future government.
If things continue as they are, France may see a "populist" in the Élysée Palace after French President Emmanuel Macron bows out.
Even Germany, the birthplace of post-war "consensualim" and the inventor of the "social market" shibboleth is wooed by the "populist" Alternative for Germany (AfD) party.
Why has the left suffered such setbacks in Europe, precisely the part of the world that Karl Marx hoped would build socialism as the final ladder to the communist nirvana in which the state "fades away" and an "administration of things" replaces government of humans?
Europe's left spent the first two decades of the post-war peace struggling against its Marxist, and in some cases, Marxist-Leninist demons. The continent's shattered economies could not be rebuilt through mass nationalizations and Soviet-style planning. With the cocktail of threats that Europe faced during the Cold War, preaching class struggle became a dangerous indulgence.
German Social Democrats managed to shed their pseudo-Marxist legacy with the Bad Godesberg reforms while the British Labour Party did the same 36 years later under Tony Blair. In France, where similar reforms didn't happen, both the Socialist and Communist parties gradually shrunk into shadows of the past. Two factors enabled the European left to maintain a political presence, often through coalition governments as in Germany.
The first was the economic growth that the old continent enjoyed until the 1980s. It helped the left adopt "redistribution" as core ideology.
The second was the idea of "cause-based" politics. That meant indulging in revolutionary fantasies through solidarity with people elsewhere engaged in real or imagined revolutions; in other words, a political version of voyeurism.
In her memoirs, Simone de Beauvoir, a demi-goddess of the French left, says that she and her comrades didn't even vote in the 1936 general election that brought the left-led Popular Front to power. "We wanted others to do things while we cheered," she laments.
A succession of "causes" provided the themes that political voyeurism needed.
First there was the "peace movement" of the 1940s and early '50s inspired and led by the Soviet Union. Then, came the campaign for nuclear disarmament. Next, there was the anti-colonial theme, the Algerian war of independence, the Mau Mau revolt in Kenya, the wars in Indochina, the big Enchilada of the "Palestinian cause" with the left cheering when Leon Klinghoffer, an elderly disabled American in a wheelchair, was shot, killed and thrown off a ship into the Adriatic because he happened to be a Jew.
However, the same left has gone into purdah over Vladimir Putin's war against Ukraine.
To cover its ideological bankruptcy, the European left has developed a grievance-based discourse in a bid to form a coalition of real or imagined victims.
It focuses on "alternative lifestyles", preaches atonement of "historic" sins, such as slavery, colonialism and racism, the toppling of statues of "imperialists" and renaming public places named after real or imagined "enemies of mankind". The left is constantly looking for underdogs to defend and, when not finding them, invents them, not realizing that by doing so, it dehumanizes the very people it pretends to defend. It also ignores that the tyranny of the underdog could be the worst of tyrannies, something we should have learnt from the great French Revolution.
Some old-timers try to keep the old flame of the left shimmering by promoting the "watermelon identity", green outside but red inside. "Environmentalism without class struggle is nothing but bourgeois gardening," says one recent Parisian slogan.
*Amir Taheri was the executive editor-in-chief of the daily Kayhan in Iran from 1972 to 1979. He has worked at or written for innumerable publications, published eleven books, and has been a columnist for Asharq Al-Awsat since 1987. He is the Chairman of Gatestone Europe.

Turkiye again tilting toward the EU
Yasar Yakis/Arab News/August 06, 2023
The EU has given its first positive signal regarding the softening of its relations with Turkiye. This signal came last week from EU Commissioner for Economic Affairs Paolo Gentiloni, who said that the Turkiye-EU Customs Union might be updated by the autumn.
It looks like a positive gesture, but it is a long-overdue promise by the EU. Turkiye joined this customs union with the EU in advance of joining the bloc. This is a unique example. Some EU countries did exactly the opposite. They joined the EU but postponed for a while their adhesion to the customs union.
But the main problem between Turkiye and the EU is the reluctance of Brussels to update the customs union. Turkiye has been losing money for decades because third countries that have signed similar deals with the EU can export their goods to Turkiye without paying customs duties, while Ankara cannot export goods to these countries because it has no customs agreement with them.
Each time Turkiye has asked the EU to update the customs union, it has come up with futile excuses and postponed any changes. Let us see whether the EU will again come up with new excuses.
A similar sign this time came from a member of the US House of Representatives. In a practice not seen for decades, Rep. Pete Sessions traveled to the Turkish part of Cyprus directly from Turkiye. The Greek Cypriots have imposed a ban on foreigners traveling from Turkish airports to the Turkish part of Cyprus. We have to see whether this was an isolated initiative for a member of the US House of Representatives or if something is brewing on the US front as well.
Despite this background, there is a new reality in Europe. The increasingly strained relations between Russia and NATO have changed the power balance on the continent. Turkiye flirted with Russia for a while. It still hesitates about whether it should stay close to Russia and play a mediating role between East and West. This is a sensitive balance. If Turkiye does not play its cards skillfully, it may spoil the entire scenario.
Every single member of the EU may have its own game plan for the role to be given to Turkiye in the future defense architecture in Europe.
Washington regards Sweden’s accession to NATO as a done deal, whereas Ankara is still trying to obtain as many concessions as possible to reduce the role of the Kurdish activists and the Turkish left in Sweden.
Turkiye also had a preponderant role in the Black Sea grain deal, both because of the importance of the Turkish Straits and its warming relations with Russia at the time the agreement was reached last summer. In addition to the strategic importance of the Turkish Straits, there is an international agreement, the Montreux Convention, that gives Ankara the right to close the straits to foreign warships in case it perceives an imminent military threat. Article 20 of the convention provides that “the passage of warships shall be left entirely to the discretion of the Turkish government.”
If Russia-NATO tensions continue to rise, there will be an awkward situation between Ankara and Washington.
The role that Ankara has played in the grain deal continues to be important. Although it has nothing to do with Turkiye’s EU accession process, in a grand bargain like that every minute factor will probably play its role.
Turkiye has a problem with the US as well. In 2021, it placed an order to buy 40 F-16 fighter aircraft and 79 modernization kits from America, but this deal has run into trouble. Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Menendez and some other congressmen initially opposed the purchase, but lately have started to use milder language, saying that they need to give further consideration to the subject.
If Russia-NATO tensions continue to rise, there will be an awkward situation between Ankara and Washington. Turkiye will be asked to contribute to the NATO forces, but the US may still continue to refuse to upgrade and sell spare parts to its NATO ally. This is an anomaly. By adopting such an attitude, Washington will be cutting down the fighting capacity of its biggest ally.
While Turkiye and Greece have recently softened their attitude toward each other, another chapter of their relations remains frozen. Greek Cypriots insist on a federal solution to the Cyprus problem, while Turkiye insists on a two-state solution. The two peoples of the island — Turks and Greeks — have very little in common. They speak different languages. They follow different religions. There are very few intermarriages between the adherents of these two religions. Atrocities committed by the Greek Cypriots on defenseless Turks in 1974 are still fresh in the mind of the Turkish Cypriots.
There are several examples of two-state solutions in the world, both big and small. One of them is the Baltic island of Usedom. The ratio of the land there is 373 sq km for Germany and 72 sq km for Poland. Saint Martin island in the Caribbean Sea is another example of a divided island. The French part constitutes 59 percent of the land and the Dutch part 41 percent.
Other islands shared by two or more states include New Guinea, Borneo, Ireland, Hispaniola, Isla Grande Tierra del Fuego, Timor, and Sebatik Island. Therefore, insisting on a federal solution for Cyprus does not make sense. In the Middle East, Turkiye supports a two-state solution for Cyprus and almost all Middle Eastern countries support a two-state solution for Israel-Palestine.
Turkiye’s EU bid may be revived during the new era that Europe will enter as a result of the Ukraine war. If Ankara plays a positive role in the present turmoil, it may change the course of events in its favor. If not, Turkiye will be left out of the EU accession process for many years to come.
• Yasar Yakis is a former foreign minister of Turkiye and founding member of the ruling AK Party.
Twitter: @yakis_yasar

In Jeddah, Saudis’ pragmatism proves vital for Ukraine
Faisal J. Abbas-Editor-in-Chief/Arab News/August 06, 2023
In one of his definitions of what a “Good Country” is, Professor Simon Anholt — the British academic who coined the term “Nation Brand” in the late 1990s — says it is a country that people, halfway across the world, wake up feeling grateful it exists.
Just imagine how we would all wake up feeling if the Saudi efforts, embodied in the recently concluded Jeddah peace talks on Ukraine, translated into a solid peace proposal and a starting point to end the conflict that started in February 2022.
For context, the war in Ukraine has impacted everyone and everything, from lives lost to energy bills soaring, from food shortages to the threat of a nuclear disaster looming over us. According to the UN, “the war has contributed to volatile and elevated commodity and energy prices, which exacerbated food shortages and stoked inflation in many regions across the world. Although energy and grain prices subsided from their mid-2022 peaks, the risks of their resurgence remain, and Europe may still face challenges to its energy security.”
For more than 18 months now, we have heard nothing but angry rhetoric from all sides, which has not helped reduce tensions and has only inflamed them further. Yes, Russia should not be rewarded for its aggression, but it became very clear from early on that a military solution is not what was going to solve this conflict. Yet everyone involved is too proud or has too much invested to admit the obvious. This is true even despite US foreign policy mastermind Henry Kissinger long advising the West to talk to Russia. “The time is approaching to build on the strategic changes which have already been accomplished and to integrate them into a new structure towards achieving peace through negotiation,” he wrote in December.
The solution cannot be the not-so-diplomatic one top Russian diplomat Andrey Baklanov suggested to Arab News last week — that the Ukrainian government must be annihilated. “I think that there is no opportunity for any kind of truce between the present-day government — the so-called government, these fascist people in Kyiv — and us,” he told “Frankly Speaking.” “I’m absolutely sure that the only option we have is to, well, to annihilate this regime in Ukraine and to return Ukraine to normality.
It can also not be the refusal of the current Ukrainian government to talk to their Russian counterpart as long as President Vladimir Putin stays in power. It is evident he is not going anywhere. Not to mention that, as long there is no clear cut winner, Moscow has demonstrated it can inflict sustained, intolerable pain on its Western foes — while being in a unique situation of having nothing more to lose itself.
This is why the Ukraine talks in Jeddah were about much more than just finding a peace proposal. In my opinion, they represented the triumph of the wise, patient and pragmatic views of the new Saudi Arabia over the populist, sometimes irrational and ideological decision-making that — unfortunately — plagues most Western democracies today.
Unlike Denmark, Saudi Arabia did not take sides, it has the ear of Moscow and was able to bring China to the meeting.
At the start of the conflict, Saudi Arabia was accused of siding with Russia, despite the fact that it voted against the aggression against Ukraine at the UN. The Kingdom supported the General Assembly resolution of March 2, 2022, that demanded Russia immediately end its invasion and unconditionally withdraw all of its military forces.
By meeting with the foreign ministers of both countries, the Kingdom sent a clear message that it wants to use its unique position, influence and power to mediate. Then, and despite oil prices going down following US President Joe Biden’s visit last summer, Saudi Arabia was accused of supporting Russia through OPEC+, when the reality was that it was this same deal that allowed stability in energy markets and trust to be built with Moscow and provided some sort of leverage to be used when needed.
A case in point was last year’s Saudi-brokered prisoner swap that resulted in the release of citizens of the US, UK, Sweden and other countries. While the current administration in the US continues to play politics and accuses Saudi Arabia of siding with Russia, President Volodymyr Zelensky himself thanked the Kingdom for its efforts and support for Ukraine, which includes more than $400 million in aid. Now, a new opportunity emerges after the conclusion of the Jeddah talks. People might ask, why will these talks be so different from their predecessor in Copenhagen? Well, there are crystal clear differences: First, unlike Denmark, Saudi Arabia has not taken sides in this war and, as such, is considered a much fairer mediator. Second, as previously indicated, the Kingdom has the ear of Moscow and has leverage through the mutual benefits. Third, Saudi Arabia has the added benefit of being able to talk to all parties, including the Chinese, who did not attend the Danish talks.
Will this bear fruit? Well, it pretty much depends on the Russian response. Moscow was not represented in Jeddah, but Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov on Sunday confirmed that Moscow will discuss the results of the summit with its BRICS partners that took part in the meeting. My assumption is that the outcomes of the recently concluded meeting will serve as a starting point for a discussion, not an end. However, if it means we move the goalposts from potential annihilation to a possible discussion, that is already a huge win for humanity.
So, why does Saudi Arabia go through this effort? Well, look at it this way: If the reforms and ambitions introduced by Vision 2030 injected the Kingdom with newly found superpowers, then the philosophy has to be — to quote the late comic book genius Stan Lee — that with great power comes great responsibility.
We saw this in action when Saudi Arabia helped evacuate citizens of other countries from Sudan, along with its own. And this is why it is adamant about resolving Sudan, Yemen, introducing green initiatives and finding a just solution for the Palestinians.
*Faisal J. Abbas is the editor-in-chief of Arab News. Twitter: @FaisalJAbbas

Frankly Speaking: What will it take to normalize ties between Saudi Arabia and Israel?
Katie Jensen/Arab News/August 06/2023
DUBAI: Israel has to meet the conditions set out in the Arab Peace Initiative proposed by Riyadh in 2002 for any dreams of normalization of ties with Saudi Arabia to materialize, Yossi Mekelberg, associate fellow for the Middle East and North Africa Program at Chatham House, has said.
Appearing in the latest episode of “Frankly Speaking,” the weekly Arab News current affairs show, Mekelberg said that the Arab Peace Initiative is “as relevant today as it was 21 years ago” as a means of ending the conflict and achieving normalization.
In a recent column for The New York Times, Thomas Friedman reckoned that a Saudi-Israeli normalization deal would force the ultra-rightwing elements in the cabinet of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to choose between annexing further Palestinian territory and accepting peace with the Arab and Islamic worlds.
The Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist should know the significance of this potential development: it was he who revealed details of King Abdullah’s initiative in a famous column back in 2002. The Arab Peace Initiative, proposed by Saudi Arabia’s late King Abdullah in 2002, was endorsed by the Arab League the same year at the Beirut Summit. It was re-endorsed at the 2007 and at the 2017 Arab League summits. It offered normalization of Arab-Israeli relations in return for a full withdrawal by Israel from the occupied Arab territories, a “just settlement” of the Palestinian refugee problem, and the establishment of a Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital. “I think it’s actually Saudi Arabia at the time that set the right tone for normalization with Israel — that it is something that is desirable, it’s something that is possible,” Mekelberg said. “But at the same time, there is one condition, and the condition is that Israel and the Palestinians resolve all their outstanding issues.
“Just to remind the viewers that this was in 2002, it was at the height of the second intifada, when this (breakthrough) didn’t look possible. But it could have been a real breakthrough given the right approach by Riyadh.
“Israel actually rejected the offer that was translated into the whole declaration. I think this is as relevant today as it was relevant 21 years ago. And possibly that should be the direction.”Saudi Arabia and several other states still want to see the Arab Peace Initiative implemented before they agree to consider formal normalization with Israel. According to Friedman, any US-brokered deal that seeks to normalize relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel would require Washington to give Riyadh certain security guarantees as well. He said that the deal could fail to materialize if Democrats in the US Senate were put off by the anti-democratic turn taking place in Israel.
He urged US President Joe Biden and his administration to lean on their Israeli counterparts to rein in the government’s extreme agenda and its attempts to dismantle the Oslo peace process and the road map for a two-state solution.
“If I am interpreting what Friedman is saying, that it’s possible to change the mind of the very right wing, the Zionist religion party, people like Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, and their supporters, that they will exchange the concessions that need to be made for peace, for this kind of normalization and acceptance in the region. If he is right and this is possible, why not? But I can’t see this happening,” Mekelberg said.
With the threat of a corruption trial looming, Mekelberg said, “Netanyahu can’t afford the government to fall … his main concern is to find a way to derail this corruption trial and prevent potentially going to jail.”
The US has been pushing for a Saudi-Israeli peace deal since President Biden’s visit to the Kingdom last year. Other high-level visits from National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan and Secretary of State Antony Blinken this year have also focused on normalization efforts.
But while Blinken told the AIPAC Conference in Washington in June that any normalization “should advance the well-being of the Palestinian people,” it is unclear whether the US will push for a freeze on settlements or a promise never to annex the West Bank.
Reports from Axios suggest that the White House wants an agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel before the end of the year to give the Biden administration a major boost on the campaign trail ahead of the 2024 elections.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken delivers remarks at the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) policy Summit in Washington. (File/Reuters)
Mekelberg said that “in principle, Washington can have great influence on Israel because of the close relationship alliance between the two countries,” but said he did not expect Biden to use this “influence or power … during (an) election year.”
Ultimately, Mekelberg argued, normalization would only be successful if Netanyahu and his government decide that the corruption trial “is secondary to normalization with Saudi Arabia” and that it is “important for the future in Israel. This is ensuring Israel’s security and prosperity in the long run.”
However, he added it would require Israeli political parties to “climb down from a very, very tall tree,” which would be challenging.
Mekelberg said that while any normalization “is a cause of celebration,” efforts by other countries in the region to improve diplomatic relations with Israel in the past have not yielded the desired results.
He called the Abraham Accords in 2020 between Israel and countries including the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco a “positive development,” but added: “It (still) left you with the Palestinian issue. And this was the elephant in the room and remains the elephant in the room.”
Mekelberg believes that Israel has used the Abraham Accords to “feel more secure” and “to take even more risk” against the Palestinians. He said the underlying feeling in Israel’s government was that “the whole world doesn’t care about the Palestinians anymore. We can get normalization for free.”
The prospect of normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel has stirred both anticipation and skepticism in recent weeks. Mekelberg believes that while diplomatic strides have been made, the road to full normalization remains rife with challenges. While Netanyahu has long claimed normalization is a top priority for his government and one that could lead to the end of the Middle East conflict, Mekelberg raised concerns that Netanyahu is a “weak leader, held hostage” by his ultra-rightwing government.
Saudi Arabia has consistently said that the success of a Saudi-Israeli normalization hinges on Israeli addressing the plight of the Palestinian people and creating a just solution they will accept. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman underscored this position in May at the Arab League Summit in Jeddah, saying that the “Palestinian issue was and remains the central issue for Arab countries, and it is at the top of the Kingdom’s priorities.”But while Saudi Arabia continues to push for Palestinian statehood and, ultimately, peace in the Middle East, Mekelberg appears skeptical of Netanyahu’s priorities.
He said that Netanyahu is “dreaming in public about having trains going all the way to Jeddah and Riyadh, but he forgets that it comes with certain things, certain concessions that he has to make until this becomes a reality.”
While normalization between historic adversaries “is possible,” he sees no evidence that Israel’s ultra-rightwing government will make the concessions needed for the Palestinians that will satisfy the Kingdom.
Mekelberg added that “Israel is in a huge crisis,” destabilized by the weekly protests and judicial reforms that critics say threaten the country’s democracy.
Because of Netanyahu’s new judicial reforms, “hundreds of thousands of people are in the streets, and (at) the same time, settlements are expanding. This is the most ultra-right government in Israel. So, normalization, yes, but probably not now.”There are major concerns about the new political reforms that the Knesset has passed recently, namely legislation abolishing the “reasonable doctrine.”
Until now, Israel’s Supreme Court has been able to intervene when it feels the government is acting recklessly. But last month, all 64 government members voted to abolish the law. It means Israel’s government can override any Supreme Court decisions with a small majority. The controversial reforms have divided the country, with weekly mass demonstrations and clashes with police since the start of the year. Hundreds of thousands of people have taken part, with huge numbers arrested. Mekelberg describes the judicial reforms as a “real danger” to Israel and accuses the current government of charting a path away from democracy. Netanyahu, he added, is now stuck in a political quagmire where he wants to “leave a legacy ... of peace ... with (the) normalization of Saudi Arabia (and Israel) and complete the Abraham Accords” while trying to appease his ultra-rightwing government, which is pushing for even harsher changes to the constitution.