English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For September 17/2024
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

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Bible Quotations For today
Jesus sat down, called the twelve, and said to them, ‘Whoever wants to be first must be last of all and servant of all.’
Mark 09/33-37: “Then they came to Capernaum; and when he was in the house he asked them, ‘What were you arguing about on the way?’But they were silent, for on the way they had argued with one another about who was the greatest. He sat down, called the twelve, and said to them, ‘Whoever wants to be first must be last of all and servant of all.’ Then he took a little child and put it among them; and taking it in his arms, he said to them, ‘Whoever welcomes one such child in my name welcomes me, and whoever welcomes me welcomes not me but the one who sent me.”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on September 16-17/2024
Elias Bejjani/Video: The plight of Boutros Khawand and Lebanon’s arbitrarily detained in Assad's jails will never be forgotten./Elias Bejjani/September 15/2024
Elias Bejjani/Text & Video: The plight of Boutros Khawand and Lebanon’s arbitrarily detained in Assad's jails will never be forgotten/Elias Bejjani/September 15/2024
Elias Bejjani/Video/.The Assassination of Bashir Gemayel Targeted the Entire Lebanese Nation./Elias Bejjani/September 14/2024
Elias Bejjani/Video & Text/.The Assassination of Bashir Gemayel Targeted the Entire Lebanese Nation/ Elias Bejjani/September 14/2024
WATCH Hezbollah’s Hostages: A Special Series Presented by The Free Press
Israeli airstrikes destroy residential buildings in Hula as casualties rise
Israeli minister says time running out for diplomatic solution with Hezbollah in Lebanon
Gallant tells Austin 'possibility for solution in North running out'
Situation in North can’t continue, Netanyahu says ahead of Hochstein visit
Le Drian to Lebanon Next Week… Quintet Awaits Results of His Visit
Editorial – Moussaoui’s Succinct Phrase: Laying All the Cards on the Table/Michel Touma/This Is Beirut/September 16/2024
Israeli army says leaflets dropped over Wazzani not approved by northern command
Top general said pushing for ground incursion to create south Lebanon buffer zone
Israel defiant as Hochstein warns it against war on Lebanon
Israeli military threats rise as US seeks Gaza ceasefire for south Lebanon solution
Saudi Ambassador Reaffirms His Country’s Steadfast Support to Lebanon
Biden Admin Pushes Israel to Give Land to Hezbollah....Making deals with Islamic terrorists doesn't work/Daniel Greenfield/ Gatestone Institute./September 16, 2024
Eric Bordenkircher/Middle East Quarterly/Can the Lebanese End the Hezbollah Dystopia?/September 16, 2024
For Lebanon, Netanyahu’s Israel is more dangerous than Sharon’s/Ghassan Charbel/Asharq Al-Awsat./September 16, 2024

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on September 16-17/2024
Suspect in apparent assassination attempt against Trump charged with federal gun crimes. Here's what authorities say happened at his Florida golf course.
Who is Ryan Wesley Routh, the suspect in another apparent Trump assassination attempt?
Israel rattled by talk that Netanyahu may replace defence minister
PM Netanyahu is planning to dismiss Gallant in immediate future - report
Israel Markets Drop on Reports Netanyahu May Fire Defense Chief
Hamas chief says Gaza militants ready for 'long war of attrition'
UNRWA chief: Gaza polio vaccination coverage has reached 90 percent
Netanyahu threatens retaliation over Houthis targeting Israel in missile strike
Iran's president says direct talks with US possible if it abandons its hostility

Titles For The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources on September 16-17/2024
Yemen's Al-Hodeida port still inactive, two months after IDF strike - expert/Ohad Merlin/Jerusalem Post/September 16/2024
On Abraham Accords anniversary, Iran pushes Gulf ties - analysis/Seth J. Frantzman/Jerusalem Post/September 16/2024
The Houthi missile attack is Iran’s latest move - analysis/Seth J. Frantzman/Jerusalem Post/September 16/2024
Iranian Equivocations and the New Cold War/Charles Chartouni/This Is Beirut/September 16/2024
Instead of focusing on unachievable goals, Israel should redefine the conflict - opinion/MARK LAVIE/THE MEDIA LINE/September 126/2024
A Muslim Aliyah Paralleled the Jewish Aliyah: Part II, Since 1948/Daniel Pipes/Middle East Forum/September 16/2024
The New Muslim ‘Conquest’ of Europe and the Role of Ribat/Raymond Ibrahim/The Stream/September 16/2024
Baghdad plays unwilling host to Iran’s axis of evil/Baria Alamuddin/Arab News/September 16, 2024
Tiny Useless Lebanon Would be Boring Without Lovely Israel, Brotherly Arabs, Cordial Iran/September 16, 2024

Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on September 16-17/2024
Elias Bejjani/Video: The plight of Boutros Khawand and Lebanon’s arbitrarily detained in Assad's jails will never be forgotten.
Elias Bejjani/September 15/2024
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qhJj88KC4u8&t=11s
On September 15, 1992, Boutros Khawand, a senior official in the Lebanese Kataeb Party, bid farewell to his wife, Janet, and left his home in Hourj Thabet. It was an ordinary morning, but little did he know it would be the last time his family saw him. At 8:30 AM, as Khawand approached his car, a group of eight armed, unmasked men ambushed him. Despite his attempts to resist, they forcibly abducted him and drove off in a van. Since that fateful moment, Khawand’s fate has remained a mystery.

Elias Bejjani/Text & Video: The plight of Boutros Khawand and Lebanon’s arbitrarily detained in Assad's jails will never be forgotten.
Elias Bejjani/September 15/2024
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2024/09/134486/
Use your bodies for the glory of God
The First Epistle of Saint Paul the Apostle to the Corinthians /06/18-19): " Flee sexual immorality! “Every sin that a man does is outside the body,” but he who commits sexual immorality sins against his own body. Or don’t you know that your body is a temple of the Holy Spirit who is in you, whom you have from God? You are not your own, 20 for you were bought with a price. Therefore glorify God in your body and in your spirit, which are God’s."
On September 15, 1992, Boutros Khawand, a senior official in the Lebanese Kataeb Party, bid farewell to his wife, Janet, and left his home in Hourj Thabet. It was an ordinary morning, but little did he know it would be the last time his family saw him. At 8:30 AM, as Khawand approached his car, a group of eight armed, unmasked men ambushed him. Despite his attempts to resist, they forcibly abducted him and drove off in a van. Since that fateful moment, Khawand’s fate has remained a mystery.
Boutros Khawand’s abduction is not an isolated incident; it is emblematic of a broader human tragedy that has haunted Lebanon for decades because of the Syrian, Palestinian and Iranian evil occupations. Thousands of Lebanese citizens were kidnapped by the Syrian occupation during its presence in Lebanon and imprisoned in Syria’s notorious jails. These individuals were forcibly disappeared, with no official acknowledgment from the Syrian regime regarding their whereabouts. Furthermore, the regime has consistently denied human rights organizations access to investigate their fates. Under both Hafez al-Assad and his son Bashar al-Assad, the Syrian regime has maintained this cruel policy of denial, deepening the wounds inflicted on Lebanon.
Thousands of Lebanese—clergymen, soldiers, political activists, journalists, and ordinary citizens—were abducted by Syrian forces without trial or charges. These victims remain at the mercy of a regime that targeted anyone suspected of opposition or disloyalty. Numerous local, regional, and international human rights organizations have tried to gain access to Syria’s prisons to uncover the truth about these detainees. Yet, the criminal Assad regime has consistently blocked all efforts to shine a light on this dark chapter.
The Assad regime, in the eras of both father and son, late Hafez and the current Bashar, has shown itself to be devoid of humanity. For decades, it has perpetrated acts of repression, terror, torture, and disappearance against thousands of innocent people—both Lebanese and Syrians. What makes this tragedy even more heartbreaking is the regime’s ongoing refusal to acknowledge the existence and fate of these prisoners, as though attempting to erase their memory and silence the calls for justice.
The fate of Boutros Khawand, along with many other Lebanese held in Assad’s prisons, remains unknown. Are they alive? Have they perished under torture? No one knows—except their captors. The Syrian regime, which has ruled with an iron fist for decades, refuses to provide any information about these disappeared individuals, ignoring the desperate pleas of families who have spent years searching for their loved ones.
While the Syrian regime bears much of the blame, the responsibility for the kidnapping and disappearance of Lebanese citizens does not rest solely with them. Many Lebanese political forces, especially those in power during the Syrian occupation, were complicit in these crimes. Numerous parties and figures collaborated with the Syrian regime, handing over Lebanese citizens to Syrian intelligence, betraying Lebanon’s sovereignty and its people’s rights. Some of these collaborators remain in positions of power today, having not only shielded the truth but also exploited the suffering of the families of the disappeared for personal or political gain.
It is tragic that the issue of Lebanon’s disappeared risks fading into obscurity, especially with the lack of political will to pursue justice. However, there is no doubt that this wound will remain etched in the collective memory of the Lebanese people. They will continue to seek the truth and hold those responsible accountable—chief among them the Assad regime’s symbols and every Lebanese figure who played a role in this crime.
Boutros Khawand is one of the most poignant examples of this humanitarian tragedy. More than three decades have passed since his disappearance, yet the question remains: Where is Boutros Khawand? Will he ever return to his family? One undeniable truth is that the Assad regime knows the fate of Boutros Khawand, just as it knows the fates of the thousands of Lebanese who vanished in its prisons.
In conclusion, the Lebanese people will not stop demanding the truth, nor will they forgive those Lebanese Trojans who participated in the abduction of their citizens or in covering up the Assad regime’s crimes. The Assad regime and its local Trojan allies will forever be remembered by the free people of Lebanon as symbols of betrayal and injustice. Meanwhile, the plight of Boutros Khawand and Lebanon’s missing will never be forgotten.

Elias Bejjani/Video/.The Assassination of Bashir Gemayel Targeted the Entire Lebanese Nation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rarA0MNV-hc&t=3s
 Elias Bejjani/September 14/2024

Elias Bejjani/Video & Text/.The Assassination of Bashir Gemayel Targeted the Entire Lebanese Nation
 Elias Bejjani/September 14/2024
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2024/09/134399/

The Assassination of Lebanon’s President-Elect Bashir Gemayel: A Target on the Entire Nation
Elias Bejjani/September 14/2024
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2024/09/134399/
On September 14, 1982, Lebanon was struck by a political earthquake: the assassination of President-elect Bashir Gemayel that was not merely an attack on a man; but an evil and Trojan assault on the very soul of Lebanon, a calculated blow aimed at destroying the fragile dream of an independent and sovereign nation. Bashir Gemayel was more than a leader—he was the embodiment of hope, a symbol of escape from the devastation of war of others, and the promise of a unified Lebanon, free from the iron grip of foreign manipulations. Bashir Gemayel did not just represent a political faction; he carried the torch of a national project, a vision to restore Lebanon’s sovereignty and place it firmly in the hands of its people. In the chaos of a Lebanon torn apart by regional and international powers, Gemayel stood as a bulwark against foreign meddling. As the leader of the Lebanese Forces, he spearheaded the formation of a military force with one purpose: to protect Lebanon’s integrity and independence.
Elected on August 23, 1982, Gemayel’s rise to the presidency sparked a renewed sense of hope in a population battered by civil wars since 1975. For many Lebanese, his election was a lifeline—an opportunity to rebuild a nation at the brink of disintegration. His presidency was poised to usher in a new era of security, sovereignty, and unity, a direct challenge to the factions and foreign actors who profited from Lebanon's fragmentation. In one of Lebanon’s darkest hours, just days before assuming presidential office, Bashir was assassinated in a bomb attack that obliterated the Phalange Party headquarters in Ashrafieh. This wasn’t just the murder of a man—it was the assassination of a vision and a dream for a free and independent Lebanon. Those responsible weren’t merely seeking to eliminate Gemayel; they sought to snuff out the dream of national sovereignty. His killers sent a brutal message: Lebanon would remain a playground for foreign interests, and any attempt to wrest control back into the hands of its people would be met with violence, plots, assassinations, wars and destruction.
The heinous crime was a calculated move by forces that thrived on Lebanon’s instability, who saw Gemayel’s vision and dream of a strong Lebanon as a threat to their grip on power. His assassination was a dagger plunged into the heart of every Lebanese citizen who longed for a future free from foreign domination and internal division.
Bashir Gemayel’s assassination sent shockwaves through the country, deepening the fractures in Lebanon’s social and political landscape. It was a blow not just to the Lebanese people, but to the very idea of a cohesive, sovereign state. The murder of Lebanon’s president-elect symbolized the unraveling of a nation already teetering on the edge of collapse. It opened the door to more foreign meddling, more chaos, and a renewed cycle of violence that would grip the country for years to come.
Even today, the reverberations of this assassination are felt across Lebanon. Gemayel wasn’t just another political leader; he was a unifying force, the embodiment of a national project to reclaim Lebanon’s independence. His assassination serves as a stark reminder that Lebanon’s battle for sovereignty is not merely an internal struggle, but a perpetual fight against external powers that seek to divide and exploit it.
The assassination of Bashir Gemayel stands as a sobering lesson for all Lebanese: the road to a truly independent state is long and fraught with danger. Lebanon’s future can only be secured through unity and an unyielding commitment to sovereignty. The forces of division are relentless, but the people’s resolve must be stronger. The murder of Bashir Gemayel was not the end of Lebanon’s struggle—it marked the beginning of new challenges. Today, remembering this crime should inspire current and future generations to redouble their efforts in securing a sovereign, peaceful, and united Lebanon, free from the chains of foreign control and internal discord.
In conclusion, the assassination of Bashir Gemayel is not merely a chapter in Lebanon’s history; it is a deep and unhealed wound in the nation’s fabric. His death was a direct assault on a project of national revival—a deliberate attempt to crush the possibility of a Lebanon where sovereignty, stability, and peace could reign. The memory of his assassination should serve as a rallying cry for all Lebanese, a reminder that the fight for independence is ongoing and must be pursued with unwavering determination.'

WATCH Hezbollah’s Hostages: A Special Series Presented by The Free Press
https://youtu.be/Ck4Ya-8uKhY
The first episode of Hezbollah’s Hostages is “The Combatant”– the true story of a Lebanese Shi’ite boy transfixed by American action movies who is lured into combat by Hezbollah during the Syrian civil war.
The Free Press is proud to exclusively present this series
Meet the people risking their lives to speak out against the brutal terrorist group. Today: A Hezbollah fighter who became a voice of resistance.
By Joseph Braude/September 16, 2024
Hezbollah—meaning “Party of God”—is an Islamist party, a terrorist group, an organized crime syndicate, and a proxy of Iran that for over four decades has spread destruction and death across the Middle East. Born out of the turmoil of the Lebanese civil war, it aims to eliminate Israel and undermine the West, in particular the United States. But Hezbollah, designated a terror group by the U.S. since 1997, doesn’t limit its desire to assassinate, destroy, and subjugate to Israel and the West.
For decades it has harmed millions of Arabs and Muslims it supposedly champions. Hezbollah is a tyrant in its native Lebanon, an occupier in neighboring Syria, a transnational mafia of sex and drug trafficking, and the nerve center of Iran’s empire in Arab lands—what it calls the “Axis of Resistance”—stretching across the Levant, Yemen, and Iraq. Hamas, which has ruled in Gaza for a generation and committed the atrocities against Israel on October 7, is also a proxy for Iran. But Hezbollah’s size and reach dwarf that of Hamas. Hezbollah likely has more than 40,000 active and reserve fighters, and an arsenal larger than that of many nations, with an estimated 150,000 to 200,000 rockets and missiles.  Many are aimed at northern Israel from Hezbollah’s perch on the southern Lebanese border. The escalation of the firing of these weapons has forced 100,000 Israeli civilians in the country’s north to flee their homes—and triggered a forceful Israeli response. Amid the fighting, 95,000 Lebanese civilians have been displaced from that country’s south, and the threat of a broader regional war looms.
But the grip of Hezbollah, though far-reaching, is not absolute. Hezbollah’s brutality is also its chief weakness. It provokes seething resentment everywhere it operates, a feeling shared by millions of Arabs who yearn to break free.
Hezbollah maintains control by wielding lethal force to silence dissenting voices, especially among the Lebanese Shi’ites it claims to represent. Yet these voices want to be heard—and the world needs to hear them, for the sake of a new conversation about how to end the harm Hezbollah does to Arabs and Israelis alike. Over the past year, the Center for Peace Communications, a New York nonprofit which I lead, interviewed Shi’ite opponents of Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Sunni victims of Hezbollah in Syria, each of whom in their own way has fought back against the group’s depredations. At great personal risk, they let us record and film them bearing witness to the reality Hezbollah hides. To obscure the identity of these brave people, we have illustrated their stories with striking animation. The voices you hear, however, are theirs. The result is Hezbollah’s Hostages, a Center for Peace Communications production, which The Free Press is presenting every Monday, starting today. The first episode of our series is “The Combatant.” It tells the story of a Lebanese Shi’ite boy transfixed by American action movies who is lured into combat by Hezbollah during its entry into the Syrian civil war. The fables he was told about the thrill of combat turn into bitter reality on the battlefield. He undergoes a profound change of heart and mind that leads him to an improbable new life. In other weekly episodes, we breach Hezbollah’s criminal underworld through unprecedented testimony from a mule in its drug trade, and bring the moving and harrowing account of a young woman who was forced into sex slavery. In taking on the powerful Hezbollah, we believe the best approach is to unmask its pretensions of being a movement of “resistance” by exposing its oppression of Arab peoples. Breaking the silence is crucial to rallying Hezbollah’s many victims across the region. They must speak out, and they must know they are not alone.
*Joseph Braude is president of the Center for Peace Communications. Follow his organization’s work on X @peacecomcenter and on Instagram @peacecomms.

Israeli airstrikes destroy residential buildings in Hula as casualties rise
NAJIA HOUSSARI/Arab News/September 16, 2024
BEIRUT: One Hezbollah member was killed, and three were wounded in intense Israeli airstrikes on Monday on the border town of Hula. The airstrikes destroyed several buildings, adding to the destruction of other residential areas that were leveled in the town, which has seen its residents flee. The escalation of Israeli hostilities in southern Lebanon coincided with the arrival of Amos Hochstein, US envoy to the Middle East, in Tel Aviv.
His visit aims to de-escalate tensions between Israel and Hezbollah and avoid a full-scale war after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced his intent to “expand military operations in the north.”
BACKGROUND
Hezbollah has traded regular cross-border fire with Israeli forces since the Oct. 7 Hamas attack sparked war in the Gaza Strip, in a campaign the movement has said was in support of its Palestinian ally. The explosions from the missiles “felt like an earthquake,” Samer, a resident living near the targeted border area, told Arab News.“The ground shook under our feet, even though we were dozens of kilometers away from the airstrikes.
“Now, the strikes target groups of houses at once, unlike before when it was just a single building or home.”Israeli artillery also shelled the outskirts of the towns of Kfarkela, Kfarchouba, Aita Al-Shaab, and Hanine in the Bint Jbeil district. Ali Shbib Shehab, the mayor of Hanine, told Arab News: “The town is being destroyed daily. It is a town about 2,000 meters from the border and has lost four civilian martyrs so far, women and children, while eight other civilians were injured. Around 50 homes have been destroyed either partially or entirely. “It is a small town, and those who remain are farmers who hold on to their land and insist on staying despite the daily shelling.”A security source stated: “The area from Odaisseh to Kfarkela is now empty of residents, while in the Bint Jbeil — Mays Al-Jabal — Hula axis, some residents remain in their homes, relying on aid.”
Israeli leaflets were dropped on Saturday over the Lebanese agricultural border area of Wazzani, calling on the remaining residents to evacuate by 4 p.m. However, the Israeli army denied dropping the leaflets, claiming it was an “individual act” by an officer in the northern brigade. An Israeli artillery shelling on the border town of Adaisseh on Sunday evening resulted in injuries to four residents of the city, who were in the process of transporting household items outside the area. Previously, owners of commercial establishments storing their goods in warehouses located in border towns, particularly in Mays Al-Jabal, coordinated with the Lebanese Army and UNIFIL, the UN peacekeeping force in Lebanon, which in turn liaised with the Israeli side. Over the past two weeks, goods and household items from homes and shops were evacuated in phases to prevent damage, as the conflict approaches a year since its inception. Israeli media reported on Monday that “the commander of the Northern Command of the Israeli army, Ori Gordin, recommended during closed sessions that the military be permitted to take control of a security buffer zone in southern Lebanon.”
The Israeli side aims to distance Hezbollah forces to ensure they do not pose a threat to the northern residents while also exerting pressure on Hezbollah to reach a lasting settlement.
Netanyahu has threatened to carry out a large-scale military operation against Hezbollah.
Israel’s Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told the visiting Hochstein on Monday that prospects were dimming for a halt to nearly a year of fighting with Hamas ally Hezbollah in Lebanon. Gallant on Monday met with Hochstein to discuss Israeli military operations against Hezbollah and the plight of Israelis displaced by the cross-border strikes, the Defense Ministry said in a statement. He “emphasized that the possibility for an agreement is running out as Hezbollah continues to ‘tie itself’ to Hamas and refuses to end the conflict,” the statement said. “Therefore, the only way left to ensure the return of Israel’s northern communities to their homes will be via military action.”Earlier on Monday, the ministry said Gallant delivered a similar message by phone to his US counterpart Lloyd Austin about time “running out” for an agreement to end the conflict.Israel “is committed to removing Hezbollah from southern Lebanon and ensuring the safe return of Israeli residents to their homes in the northern and border areas,” Gallant said. In response to Netanyahu’s remarks on Monday concerning the potential expansion of the conflict to the northern front, Hezbollah MP Hussein Ezzedine asserted that Israel was “unable to extend the war to any additional front.”He said the exhausted and worn-out army in Gaza had not yet reached an end to the current operations and could not assert victory in Gaza. “Therefore, how can it contemplate opening a new front with Lebanon or any other location?”Ezzedine affirmed that “the resistance is strong, capable, and prepared for any unexpected developments that the enemy may attempt to surprise us with, and it continues its daily operational activities that deplete the capabilities of the Israeli army.”
Israeli Channel 12 reported on Monday that several rockets launched from Lebanon struck the Metula settlement, resulting in damage to a building and the outbreak of fire.
Hezbollah announced that it targeted the positions of Israeli enemy soldiers in the vicinity of the Metula site using missile weapons. It also targeted the Birkat Reisha site with artillery shells and the Israeli army’s artillery positions in Za’oura with rockets. On Sunday, Hezbollah executed military operations against 10 Israeli military installations, which included an assault on the headquarters of the 188th Brigade’s armored battalions located in the Rawiya barracks with numerous Katyusha rockets.Additionally, an attack drone was deployed to strike a technical system at the Al-Malikiyah site, achieving a direct hit. Another attack drone targeted Israeli soldiers at the Metula site. Espionage equipment at the Ruwaysat Al-Alam site in the occupied Kfar Shuba hills was struck with a guided missile, while Israeli positions in Za’oura and further espionage equipment at the Ramya site were also targeted using guided missiles.
The Samaka site in the occupied Kfar Shuba hills was attacked with rocket weaponry, and buildings utilized by soldiers in the Shlomi settlement were also hit. Furthermore, Hezbollah conducted an aerial assault employing a squadron of suicide drones on the headquarters of the Golan Division’s military assembly battalion in the Yarden barracks, accurately targeting the positions and settlements of their officers and soldiers, resulting in multiple casualties. Additionally, Israeli artillery positions in Dishon were targeted with rockets.

Israeli minister says time running out for diplomatic solution with Hezbollah in Lebanon
Reuters/September 16, 2024
JERUSALEM (Reuters) - Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant told U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on Monday that the window was closing for a diplomatic solution to the standoff with the Iranian-backed Hezbollah movement in southern Lebanon.
Gallant's remarks came as the White House Special envoy Amos Hochstein visited Israel to discuss the crisis on the northern border where Israeli troops have been exchanging missile fire with Hezbollah forces for months.
"The possibility for an agreed framework in the northern arena is running out," Gallant told Austin in a phone call, according to a statement from his office.
As long as Hezbollah continued to tie itself to the Islamist movement Hamas in Gaza, where Israeli forces have been engaged for almost a year, "the trajectory is clear," he said.
The visit by Hochstein, who is due to meet Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, comes amid efforts to find a diplomatic path out of the crisis, which has forced tens of thousands on both sides of the border to leave their homes.
On Monday, Israeli media reported that the head of the army's northern command had recommended a rapid border operation to create a buffer zone in southern Lebanon.
While the war in Gaza has been Israel's main focus since the attack by Hamas-led gunmen on Oct. 7 last year, the precarious situation in the north has fuelled fears of a regional conflict that could drag in the United States and Iran.
A missile barrage by Hezbollah the day after Oct. 7 opened the latest phase of conflict and since then there have been daily exchanges of rockets, artillery fire and missiles, with Israeli jets striking deep into Lebanese territory.
Hezbollah has said it does not seek a wider war at present but would fight if Israel launched one. Israeli officials have said for months that Israel cannot accept the clearance of its northern border areas indefinitely but while troops remain committed to Gaza, there have also been questions about the military's readiness for an invasion of southern Lebanon.
However, some of the hardline members of the Israeli government have been pressing for action and on Monday, National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, a longtime foe of Gallant, called for him to be sacked.
"We need a decision in the north and Gallant is not the right person to lead it," he said in a statement on the social media platform X.
Hundreds of Hezbollah fighters and dozens of Israeli soldiers and civilians have been killed in the exchanges of fire, which have left communities on both sides of the border as virtual ghost towns. The two sides came close to all-out war last month after Israeli forces killed a senior Hezbollah commander in Beirut in retaliation for a missile strike that killed 12 youngsters in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.
On Monday, Israel's defence ministry said it had approved the distribution of 9,000 automatic rifles to civilian rapid response units in northern Israel and the Golan Heights.
(Reporting by James Mackenzie; Editing by Susan Fenton)

Gallant tells Austin 'possibility for solution in North running out'
Jerusalem Post/September 16/2024
Gallant also asserted Israel would operate "by any means" necessary in order to return the hostages held in Gaza captivity and to destroy Hamas. Defense Minister Yoav Gallant discussed the situation in Israel's North in a phone call on Monday with his American counterpart, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, Gallant's office reported. Gallant said that the possibility for an agreement in the North is passing, adding that Hezbollah continues to "tie itself" tp Hamas. He further pointed out to Austin that the direction in the North was "clear" and affirmed Israel was committed to returning the evacuated residents to their homes in the communities in northern Israel. Concerning Israel's war against Hamas, Gallant asserted Israel would operate "by any means" necessary in order to return the hostages held in Gaza captivity and to destroy Hamas. Gallant also spoke of the Houthi threat following the missile that was fired at central Israel on Sunday and noted the Yemeni terror group posed a "regional threat." The defense minister further noted Israel had exemplified how it operates against terrorist organizations that threaten its citizens.
Heightened tensions in Israel's North
The call came amid heightened tensions on Israel's northern border with Lebanon, with Hezbollah firing dozens of rockets into Israel's North in the past few days. On Sunday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the situation in the North “cannot continue," requiring instead “a change in the balance of forces on our northern border.” Tovah Lazaroff contributed to this report.

Situation in North can’t continue, Netanyahu says ahead of Hochstein visit
Jerusalem Post/September 16/2024
Amos Hochstein is expected to meet Israeli leaders in a push to find a diplomatic solution to the IDF-Hezbollah conflict. The cross-border violence between the IDF and Hezbollah in the North of the country “cannot continue,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said ahead of a meeting with US special envoy Amos Hochstein on Monday. What is needed, Netanyahu said at the weekly government meeting, is “a change in the balance of forces on our northern border.” He also pledged to restore safety to that area so that the more than 60,000 residents of the border communities evacuated in October can return home. “I am attentive to the residents of the North. I speak with them and with the heads of local authorities in the North. I see their distress. I hear their anguish,” he said. “I am committed to this. The government is committed to this and we will not suffice with less than this,” he stated.
Hochstein, who is also expected to meet with Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, is pushing to find a diplomatic solution to the contained IDF-Hezbollah war to prevent it from breaking out into a more wide-scale conflict.
Gallant has argued that Netanyahu has to prioritize the North over the South, making it the primary focal point of the IDF’s efforts rather than the South.
Prioritized fronts and potential new borders proposed
Netanyahu, however, has continued to invest in the southern front with Hamas as the main military objective. Hochstein, according to KAN, is expected to propose a slight redrawing of the map along the border between Israel and Lebanon. It had also been hoped that a Gaza hostage deal would open the door to a diplomatic resolution along Israel’s northern border, but no such agreement has been forthcoming. Hezbollah increased its attacks against Israel on October 8, in support of Hamas’s October 7 invasion of Israel.
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-820262

Le Drian to Lebanon Next Week… Quintet Awaits Results of His Visit
This Is Beirut/September 16/2024
Local TV channel MTV has revealed that French envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian will visit Lebanon next week, between September 24 and 25, and the Quintet (France, Saudi Arabia, United States, Egypt and Qatar) is awaiting the results of his visit to decide on the next steps. Information also noted that “there will be no meeting of the Quintet committee at the residence of the Saudi ambassador on Tuesday, especially since the Egyptian ambassador is on vacation abroad.”Regarding the possibility of a dialogue under Le Drian’s leadership, sources within the Quintet disclosed that “nothing is ruled out.”
“Let’s wait for Le Drian’s visit, and then we’ll proceed step by step,” the source added.

Editorial – Moussaoui’s Succinct Phrase: Laying All the Cards on the Table
Michel Touma/This Is Beirut/September 16/2024
The strategy of gradual encroachment, aimed at progressively undermining, step by step, the various mechanisms of the State and the country’s politico-communal framework… This is the unapologetic and ongoing approach adopted by Hezbollah. The Maronite Patriarch, Cardinal Bechara Rai, succinctly captured this reality in his Sunday sermon during a mass commemorating the martyrs of the Lebanese resistance (the Lebanese Forces) in Mayfouk on September 15: “Certain groups (a thinly-veiled reference to the pro-Iranian party) seek to turn Lebanon into a vacant territory to implement their project, in blatant disregard for the State, the Constitution, and the rule of law (…).” He further added, pointedly, “The Lebanese are facing an invasion far worse than occupation.”Viewing the Land of the Cedars as little more than a vast, desolate wasteland, a “private property” and a strategic outpost for the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has long been the steadfast approach of Hezbollah’s leadership and its affiliated factions for many years. Former Hezbollah MP Nawaf Moussaoui—who was ousted from his parliamentary seat and sidelined by his party after making sectarian outbursts during a parliamentary session—has reemerged on the local scene, likely at the behest of his superiors, to further escalate the intimidation tactics used by the henchmen of the Iranian regime. Candidly unveiling his party’s (well-known) methods, he openly declared that any president of the Republic who opposes Hezbollah’s policies “will not survive!” To further clarify his stance, Moussaoui referenced the case of Bachir Gemayel (whom he pointedly refrained from naming), even going so far as to suggest that the president-martyr’s assassin, through his murder, had “fulfilled his national duty!”
When a high-ranking party official exhibits such contempt and disregard for the sensibilities of a broad segment of the population—not only Christians, as evidenced by the widespread outrage from politicians and online users across various communities—, it signals a failure to genuinely commit to building a State and reconstructing the country in partnership with all segments of society. In this context, it is not surprising to see activists, senior officials and intellectuals from various communities—particularly Christians—openly state that “living together” is no longer possible with a faction that adopts such practices and rhetoric as Moussaoui. This faction continually demonstrates that its sole aim is to further the hegemonic and sectarian agenda of the mullahs in Tehran. From this perspective, anything is permissible: assassinations (as Moussaoui himself acknowledges), a strategy of dismantling the State and its vital sectors, as well as political and community structures, unilateral decisions that drag the country into conflicts unrelated to Lebanese interests and that serve only Tehran’s objectives, attempts at demographic manipulation, threats, intimidation, militia pressure and highly dubious economic practices, among other actions.
In this context, the prospect of meaningful dialogue and the formulation of a balanced, healthy and sustainable national vision with a party that neglects Lebanese interests appear increasingly improbable. This faction’s ideology and political doctrine, established in the mid-1980s, demand unwavering loyalty to the supreme and untouchable leader of a regional power laying claim to divine “legitimacy,” detached from popular concerns. Some Western leaders may be tempted to engage in realpolitik, showing complacency towards Hezbollah’s leadership or the mullahs’ regime in Tehran. However, this approach either overlooks or deliberately ignores the fact that it only exacerbates chronic instability and fuels a terrorist threat that could eventually transcend Lebanon and the region to reach major cities in the West. Recently, several European Union countries, notably Germany, have begun to address the rise of political Islam, which is being partly driven by the Iranian Islamic Republic and its radical affiliates. While denouncing Islamophobia and stereotypes is understandable, turning a blind eye to the surge of jihadist and fundamentalist terrorism is increasingly perilous and could yield devastating consequences for human rights and universal humanist values.

Israeli army says leaflets dropped over Wazzani not approved by northern command
Agence France Presse/September 16/2024
Israel dropped leaflets over a Lebanon border village Sunday urging residents to leave, state-run media said, but Israel's military told AFP a brigade had taken the initiative without approval. It was the first time Israelis had told residents of south Lebanon to evacuate in 11 months of cross-border fire between Hezbollah and Israel over the Gaza war, triggered by Hezbollah ally Hamas' October 7 attack on Israel. "The Israeli enemy dropped leaflets over Wazzani calling on those in the area and its surroundings to evacuate," the official National News Agency said, referring to a southern border village. Wazzani Mayor Ahmed al-Mohammed shared with AFP a picture of the leaflets that showed a map of the region with the areas marked for evacuation in red. The leaflet read in Arabic: "To all residents and refugees living in the area of the camps, Hezbollah is firing from your region. You must immediately leave your homes and head north of the Khiam region before 04:00 pm (1300 GMT). Do not return to this area until the end of the war."It added: "Anyone present in this area after this time will be considered a terrorist."Wazzani is an agricultural region where Syrians are often hired to work the land.
Asked about the incident, an Israeli military spokeswoman said the leaflets had been dropped by drone in an area from which rockets had been fired into northern Israel. "This was an initiative of the 769 Brigade, it was not approved by the Northern Command. An investigation has been opened," she added. A cameraman collaborating with AFP saw Syrian families preparing to evacuate their makeshift tents, with young children carrying belongings in plastic bags. Some families relocated to an area about a couple of kilometers (miles) further north, said the cameraman, who saw children and women unloading a truck filled with mattresses. "Some of the Syrian workers are leaving the area... But as for us, we are farmers and we have livestock. We cannot leave our land," Mayor Mohammed said.In the Gaza Strip, Israeli aircraft regularly drop leaflets urging residents to evacuate before an attack. On Saturday, Hezbollah's second-in-command Sheikh Naim Qassem warned that an all-out war by Israel aimed at returning 100,000 displaced people to their homes in areas near the Lebanon border would displace "hundreds of thousands" more Israelis. The cross-border violence since early October has killed 623 people in Lebanon, mostly fighters but also including at least 141 civilians, according to an AFP tally. On the Israeli side, including in the annexed Golan Heights, authorities have announced the deaths of at least 24 soldiers and 26 civilians.

Top general said pushing for ground incursion to create south Lebanon buffer zone
Naharnet/September 16/2024
Israel’s top general commanding the restive northern frontier has reportedly begun actively lobbying leaders to okay a ground offensive into southern Lebanon with the goal of securing a buffer zone and halting Hezbollah’s attacks on Israeli settlements in the Galilee, amid disagreements over the matter among politicians and defense brass. Defense Minister Yoav Gallant is believed to oppose a major military operation in Lebanon at this time, according to reports in Israeli media, while Netanyahu has appeared at least outwardly in favor of an operation, with one report suggesting he had threatened to fire Gallant over the issue. Maj. Gen. Ori Gordin, the head of the Israeli army’s Northern Command, is pressuring decision-makers to launch a large-scale incursion into Lebanon, while Gallant and Israeli army chief Herzi Halevi have expressed doubts over launching a war against Hezbollah, which is a more formidable enemy than the Hamas group Israel is currently fighting in Gaza, Israel’s Kan TV and Channel 13 reported Sunday and Monday. According to the reports, Gallant believes now is not the right time for such action, and wants to give a chance to efforts to achieve a diplomatic solution in the north and a ceasefire-hostage deal in Gaza. In a call with U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin overnight, Gallant said the possibility of reaching a diplomatic solution on the border was passing, cautioning that Israel is committed to pushing Hezbollah away from the border and allowing residents to return to their homes in the north, according to a statement from the defense minister’s office Monday morning.
Hezbollah, which began launching attacks on Israel in support of Hamas a day after the Gazan group’s October 7 attack in southern Israel, has said it will stop firing only once the war in Gaza ends, though many Israelis fear the north will remain under threat as long as Hezbollah forces are able to operate along the border. Gordin, according to the Israel Hayom daily, has recommended in recent closed-door meetings that the army be given the green light to seize and occupy a buffer zone in southern Lebanon. The report said Gordin believes pushing Hezbollah fighters away from the border would be achievable quickly, with most elite Hezbollah forces along the border having been killed in Israeli strikes or having already fled north, and with an estimated 80 percent of civilians in southern Lebanon also thought to have left the area.
Such a move would likely risk all-out war against Hezbollah, thought to have an arsenal of 150,000 rockets, including advanced precision missiles supplied by Iran that it could use to bomb Israel for weeks. However, the reports suggested that Gordin believes such a move would secure northern Israel in the long term and obtain leverage for a more advantageous diplomatic solution. Kan reported that Netanyahu is pushing for an operation in Lebanon, albeit a more limited one, with an unnamed associate of the premier threatening to replace Gallant “if (he) tries to thwart an operation in the north.”An unnamed government official denied the report, Kan said. A Channel 13 report Sunday meanwhile suggested that while Netanyahu appeared to back Gordin’s position, some have questioned if the normally risk-averse prime minister is just paying lip service to the need for military action, amid growing public cries for an end to the crisis. Many Israelis have bitter memories of Israel’s last attempt to create a buffer zone in southern Lebanon, which lasted from 1985 until 2000, when the government pulled out troops under intense public pressure sparked by deadly Hezbollah operations.
Hezbollah has largely had freedom to operate along the border ever since. The sides maintained an uneasy detente after fighting a 34-day war in 2006, until Hezbollah resumed attacks on the north on October 8 this year.
Both Hezbollah and Israel maintain publicly they are not interested in a new all-out war, which would likely cause widespread damage in Israel and destroy much of Lebanon, but are ready to fight if need be. It could also draw in other Iranian proxies, such as Yemen’s Houthis who fired a ballistic missile at Tel Aviv on Sunday, or Tehran itself.
Speculation regarding an escalation in fighting has ramped up in recent days, with Hezbollah regularly firing volleys of dozens of rockets and explosive drones at evacuated settlements in the largely uninhabited border region and at those further afield. Israel has responded with daily airstrikes against the group, and has assassinated some of its top commanders and hit arms depots deep inside Lebanon, according to the Israeli army. According to a Channel 13 report over the weekend, Netanyahu warned security chiefs during discussions on Thursday that Israel was facing a “large-scale confrontation” with Hezbollah, a possibility that he contended would not diminish Israel’s military pressure on Hamas in Gaza.
The report stated that senior defense officials largely agreed that an operation was needed, but disagreements remain over whether Israel has the manpower necessary so long as fighting is ongoing in Gaza. According to a separate Saturday report by Kan, Gallant has contended that war against Hezbollah would require a reduction of forces in Gaza and could harm the chance of freeing the 101 hostages still captive in the Palestinian enclave.
Tens of thousands of people have been displaced on both sides of the Israel-Lebanon border and Israel has repeatedly warned that it might resort to military action to return its residents should diplomatic efforts fail. The cross-border violence since early October has killed 623 people in Lebanon, mostly fighters but also including at least 141 civilians, according to an AFP tally. On the Israeli side, including in the annexed Golan Heights, authorities have announced the deaths of at least 24 soldiers and 26 civilians.

Israel defiant as Hochstein warns it against war on Lebanon
Agence France Presse/September 16/2024
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday told visiting U.S. mediator Amos Hochstein that a "fundamental change" was needed after nearly a year of cross-border exchanges with Hezbollah in Lebanon. Displaced residents of the border area would not be able to return home "without a fundamental change in the security situation in the north" and Israel "will do what is necessary to ensure its security," Netanyahu told Hochstein, according to a statement from the Israeli leader's office. Israel's Defense Minister Yoav Gallant for his part told Hochstein that prospects were dimming for a halt to the fighting with Hezbollah. The Iran-backed Lebanese armed group has traded regular cross-border fire with Israeli forces since Hamas' October 7 attack sparked war in the Gaza Strip, in a campaign Hezbollah has said is in support of its Palestinian ally. Gallant "emphasized that the possibility for an agreement is running out as Hezbollah continues to 'tie itself' to Hamas, and refuses to end the conflict," a statement from the Israeli minister's office said.
"Therefore, the only way left to ensure the return of Israel's northern communities to their homes, will be via military action," he added. Earlier on Monday the ministry said Gallant delivered a similar message by phone to his U.S. counterpart Lloyd Austin about time "running out" for an agreement that would end the conflict. Hochstein meanwhile warned the Israeli leaders he met that the U.S. does not believe that a broad conflict in Lebanon would return the residents of the north to their homes, and that there is a danger that it will develop into a regional and much longer conflict, Israeli media outlets said. Hochstein also made it clear to his Israeli interlocutors that the U.S. remains committed to a diplomatic solution to the northern sector, either together with a cease-fire agreement in Gaza, or on its own.
While repeated rounds of talks mediated by the United States, Qatar and Egypt have sought a truce in Gaza, there have been no signs of progress in diplomacy aimed at halting the fighting between Hezbollah and Israel. Hezbollah officials have said the group would stand down if a Gaza ceasefire is reached, while Israel insists it cannot allow militants to remain in the border area in Lebanon's south. The violence has killed hundreds of mostly fighters in Lebanon, and dozens of civilians and soldiers on the Israeli side.
The fighting has also forced tens of thousands of people on both sides to flee their homes.
Hezbollah deputy chief Sheikh Naim Qassem said Saturday his group has "no intention of going to war," but if Israel does "unleash" one "there will be large losses on both sides."
Israel and Hezbollah fought a month-long war in the summer of 2006 that killed more than 1,200 people in Lebanon, mostly civilians, as well as 160 Israelis, most of them soldiers.
The Israeli defense ministry statement about Gallant's call with Austin said the Israeli minister "reiterated Israel's commitment to the removal of Hezbollah presence in southern Lebanon, and to enabling the safe return of Israel's northern communities to their homes" after more than 11 months.
Tensions in cabinet
Monday's defense ministry statements came as several Israeli media including the left-leaning Haaretz daily reported that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was considering firing Gallant, which Netanyahu's office denied. Gallant, who had already survived an attempt by Netanyahu to dismiss him in March 2023, is among several Israeli officials who have been at odds with the prime minister on war policy. While Gallant, a former general, remains grimly committed to destroying Hamas over its October 7 attack, he has clashed with Netanyahu on the issue of Gaza's post-war governance and pressed the prime minister to declare a policy. Gallant has opposed any permanent Israeli occupation of Gaza, which Israel seized in 1967 before withdrawing troops and settlers in 2005, then imposing a crippling blockade and, after October 7, a siege. The Israeli defense minister had said that "the 'day after Hamas' will only be achieved with Palestinian entities taking control of Gaza, accompanied by international actors", rejecting long-term Israeli administration of the Palestinian territory. Israeli media last month quoted Gallant as telling a parliamentary committee that a deal to release hostages held in Gaza "is stalling... in part because of Israel," prompting Netanyahu's office to accuse Gallant of adopting an "anti-Israel narrative."Netanyahu on Sunday publicly addressed the crisis on Israel's northern border, saying at a cabinet meeting that the current situation was not sustainable.
"The status quo will not continue. This requires a change in the balance of power on our northern border," said Netanyahu, without specifying how he planned to achieve it.

Israeli military threats rise as US seeks Gaza ceasefire for south Lebanon solution
LBCI/September 16/2024
U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein recognizes that resolving the situation in southern Lebanon hinges on achieving a ceasefire in Gaza. Hochstein aims to accomplish two objectives: a ceasefire in Gaza and a long-term agreement in southern Lebanon that resolves border issues and allows for the return of Israeli settlers and displaced Lebanese. Reports suggest that the Israelis were assured by the U.S. that a solution for southern Lebanon could be reached by September. Since this solution has not yet materialized, Israeli threats of a wide-scale military operation against Hezbollah have increased, with the goal of ultimately returning settlers to northern settlements. The reports also indicate that both the U.S. administration and Congress have become increasingly aligned with this Israeli stance, but they lack information about the nature of the military operation the Israelis are discussing. Is it a ground invasion, or merely an escalation and expansion of aerial attacks with a request to evacuate areas south of the Litani River to create a buffer zone? The official Lebanese side, represented by caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati and Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib, said no new information about any Israeli escalation has been received, reaffirming continued international efforts to prevent such escalation. They also noted that the key to a ceasefire in the south is a ceasefire in Gaza. There is speculation among Lebanese circles that if the Quintet Committee succeeds in electing a president, this event could serve as an entry point to separate Lebanon’s situation from Gaza’s.

Saudi Ambassador Reaffirms His Country’s Steadfast Support to Lebanon
This Is Beirut/September 16/2024
Saudi Arabia’s Ambassador to Lebanon, Walid Bukhari, and Maronite Patriarch Bechara al-Rai held an hour-long meeting on Monday during which the envoy reaffirmed Riyadh’s steadfast support for Lebanon and its commitment to help the country navigate its multifaceted crises. The talks held at the patriarch’s summer residence in Diman touched on key issues, including the latest developments regarding the presidential election, in light of the meetings of the quintet and the anticipated visit of French envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian to Lebanon. They also discussed the tense situation in southern Lebanon and the ongoing war in Gaza. Bukhari refrained from making a public statement following the meeting.

Biden Admin Pushes Israel to Give Land to Hezbollah....Making deals with Islamic terrorists doesn't work
Daniel Greenfield/ Gatestone Institute./September 16, 2024
"In its boldest move, Hezbollah sent four drones toward the Karish platform several weeks ago, all of which were intercepted by the Israel Defense Forces," reported The Times of Israel on July 31, 2022.
This was exactly what surrendering part of the gas field to Hezbollah was supposed to prevent.
"The proposal for this point involves recognizing it as part of Lebanon, with UN forces deployed there as a neutral party for both sides." — The Jerusalem Post, September 8, 2024.
United Nations forces are absolutely useless and pull back whenever there's any conflict. (Nor is the UN remotely neutral.)
Hezbollah will claim any territory it gets and attack anyway because that is what Islamic terrorists do. Hezbollah is backed by Iran. It's going to attack when Tehran tells it to. As an Islamic terror group, attacking non-Muslims and dominating them is a fundamental religious obligation. So making deals with it won't work.
Just like making deals with Hamas doesn't work.
Hezbollah will claim any territory it gets and attack anyway because that is what Islamic terrorists do. Hezbollah is backed by Iran. It's going to attack when Tehran tells it to. As an Islamic terror group, attacking non-Muslims and dominating them is a fundamental religious obligation. So making deals with it won't work. Pictured: Hezbollah terrorists in Baalbek, Lebanon give a Nazi salute on November 12, 2019. (Photo by AFP via Getty Images)
The appeasement lobby only has one big idea when it comes to Islamic terrorists and any other enemies:
Give them land.
When the terrorists attack anyway, explain that it's because they didn't get enough land last time.
Give them more land.
When the terrorists attack anyway, explain that it's because they didn't get enough land last time.
Israel has been living through this particular "peace process" nightmare for a generation.
Now, faced with growing Hezbollah attacks, the Biden administration has one big bright idea.
"American officials recently proposed, in a virtual meeting with their Israeli counterparts, a land swap between Lebanon and Israel as part of a comprehensive agreement to end the border conflicts and resolve the land dispute between the two countries, the Kuwaiti newspaper Al-Jarida reported on Sunday," reported The Jerusalem Post on September 8, 2024.
Amos Hochstein, Biden's envoy, insisted on Israel turning over gas fields to Hezbollah all the way back in... October 2022. That was supposed to avert conflict.
We know how that worked out. The Times of Israel reported on July 31, 2022:
"The Lebanese Hezbollah terror group on Sunday morning published a video threatening the gas extraction infrastructure at an Israeli offshore field, near a disputed maritime border between the countries."
"Hezbollah has recently escalated its rhetoric and actions over the border dispute, after Israel moved a natural gas drilling vessel into its Karish field, which Lebanon claims is a disputed area. In its boldest move, Hezbollah sent four drones toward the Karish platform several weeks ago, all of which were intercepted by the Israel Defense Forces."
This was exactly what surrendering part of the gas field to Hezbollah was supposed to prevent.
But appeasing Islamic terrorists doesn't work. Defeating them does.
Hezbollah will claim any territory it gets and attack anyway because that is what Islamic terrorists do. Hezbollah is backed by Iran. It's going to attack when Tehran tells it to. As an Islamic terror group, attacking non-Muslims and dominating them is a fundamental religious obligation. So making deals with it won't work.
Just like making deals with Hamas doesn't work.
Last week's Jerusalem Post report continued:
"On the other hand, two outstanding issues were raised in Washington's proposal for a diplomatic settlement. The first is the 'Point B1' issue, the westernmost border point of the 'Blue Line,' overlooking the Israeli tourist site at Rosh Hanikra.
"The proposal for this point involves recognizing it as part of Lebanon, with UN forces deployed there as a neutral party for both sides."
United Nations forces are absolutely useless and pull back whenever there's any conflict. (Nor is the UN remotely neutral.)
Lebanon is controlled by Hezbollah. Treaties signed by its puppet regime are worthless. These regimes exist purely for plausible deniability purposes, so the U.S. can keep arming it and providing it with foreign aid.
The 2022 deal signed off on by Israel's Yair Lapid and Naftali Bennett disqualified either of them from ever again holding office. Doing the same thing again would be criminal insanity. Appeasing Islamic terrorists never works. If any single event should have broken through on that, it would be Oct. 7. Any perceived economic benefits for terrorists just sets up a bigger attack.
*Daniel Greenfield is a Shillman Journalism Fellow at the David Horowitz Freedom Center.
Reprinted by kind permission of JNS.
© 2024 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Eric Bordenkircher/Middle East Quarterly/Can the Lebanese End the Hezbollah Dystopia?
"إريك بوردنكيرشر/نشرة الشرق الأوسط الفصلية/هل يستطيع اللبنانيون إنهاء ديستوبيا حزب الله؟
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2024/09/134536/
September 16, 2024
"In its boldest move, Hezbollah sent four drones toward the
معنى Dystopia
"Dystopia" (ديستوبيا) هو مصطلح يشير إلى مجتمع أو دولة خيالية تسود فيها الفوضى، الظلم، والقمع، حيث يعيش الأفراد في ظروف لا تطاق تحت أنظمة استبدادية، وغالباً ما تتسم الحياة فيها بالخوف، الفقر، ونقص الحريات. على عكس "يوتوبيا" التي ترمز إلى مجتمع مثالي، فإن "ديستوبيا" تجسد العكس التام، حيث تكون الحياة مليئة بالمعاناة والاضطهاد، وتستخدم عادة في الأدب والأفلام لتسليط الضوء على المخاطر المحتملة للأنظمة الشمولية أو الفساد المجتمعي.
Lebanon sits on the precipice of disaster… again.
Over the last several months, the Lebanese militia Hezbollah has regularly attacked northern Israel with an array of missiles, drones, and mortars. The militia’s unprovoked aggression threatens to subject Lebanon to another destructive conflict with its southern neighbor. Hezbollah’s actions are the latest incident in the group’s long history of defying the Lebanese state and manipulating Lebanon’s state of war with Israel.
For years, many Lebanese have wanted to have their cake and eat it too. They seek to espouse a loyalty to the Palestinian cause and desire the destruction of Israel while aspiring for a sovereign Lebanese state. To realize this objective, certain politicians repeatedly speak about having the Lebanese state rein in Hezbollah by disarming or integrating its militia into the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF).1
As the events of the last six months further demonstrate, Lebanese politicians are on a fool’s errand and many of Lebanon’s citizens live in a state of denial. Regaining their state and sovereignty while upholding the Palestinian cause is the equivalent of squaring a circle. Lebanese authorities cannot compete with Hezbollah—tactically, ably, ideologically, or rhetorically—regarding the confrontation with Israel. The militia’s independence, power, success, and symbolism preclude the state’s disarmament or integration of it into the LAF anytime soon.
Reclamation of the Lebanese state and Lebanon’s sovereignty would demand a change in attitude, not a change in the ownership of weapons. Yet any such change appears distant.
A Rejectionist Ideology
The state of war with Israel enables the survival of a rejectionist, maximalist ideology in Lebanon. This ideology empowers and lionizes Hezbollah’s resistance and its weapons. The realization of the ideology supersedes everyone and everything. Even a Lebanese state and society attempting to recover from a historic economic collapse or arresting and prosecuting the culprits of the third largest non-nuclear explosion is of secondary importance.
The maximalist, rejectionist ideology in Lebanon dates back to the creation of the state of Israel in 1948. Lebanon and other Arab countries believed the liberation of Palestinian land required the destruction of the Israeli state. Every inch of the Zionist presence in the Levant required removal. This maximalist objective demanded no moderation or compromise (no negotiation or recognition of Israel), only the maintenance of the state of war. To help achieve the outcome, the Lebanese government surrendered Lebanon’s sovereignty to the Palestinian cause in the Cairo Agreement of 1969. The agreement turned southern Lebanon into a base of operations for Palestinian organizations to launch attacks into Israel.
While a growing number of Arab states have abandoned the rejectionist approach to Israel by establishing relations during the last 45 years, Lebanon remains a fountainhead for maximalist outcomes. The reason is straightforward: Iranian interference. Iran’s entrance into Lebanese affairs beginning in the early 1980s through their creation of Hezbollah has perpetuated rejectionism. Iran’s continual financial, military, rhetorical, and spiritual support of Hezbollah has been critical to elevating Hezbollah’s voice and power, withstanding setbacks, and remaining resolute to its stated objectives. Iranian patronage of Hezbollah in an environment like Lebanon—a failed state—is an important dynamic because the militia operates with the belief that they will not be abandoned. It allows them to ignore or reject any conciliatory measures.2
The introduction of Hezbollah into the Lebanese equation from the 1980s onwards also accentuated another element to the struggle between the Israeli and Palestinian nations—the religious dimension. Hezbollah perceives the establishment of Israel as an unacceptable imposition of a non-Islamic presence in the Islamic world. According to this view, the presence of Israel must be removed like a cancerous tumor because it poses a threat to the Islamic world. Israel disrupts Islamic societies through its occupation of territory and presence in the region. Israel’s existence diffuses non-Islamic mores into the area and the land it governs. Because of this, there can be no accommodation with Israel or its acknowledgement. While countries like Egypt, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain have compromised their “Islamic identities and principles” by establishing diplomatic relations with Israel, Hezbollah, and by extension Lebanon, remain resolute in seeking Israel’s destruction.
Initially, Hezbollah’s rejectionism in Lebanon enjoyed a wide consensus. The Israeli security zone in southern Lebanon, an 800-square kilometer area established in 1978, demanded liberation in the eyes of most Lebanese. The Taif Accord, the document outlining a road map for post-civil war Lebanon, assigned Hezbollah with the task of liberating southern Lebanon. Its status in this regard ensured that Hezbollah retained its stockpiles of weapons at the exclusion of other Lebanese militias at the conclusion of the civil war.
Hezbollah’s weapons have since become woven into the fabric of the Lebanese state and society.
It took ten years of military action for Hezbollah to achieve its assigned task. In May 2000, Israel withdrew its forces from the security zone. According to the United Nations Secretary General, Israel’s withdrawal fully complied with the stipulations of UN Resolution 425—a complete withdrawal from Lebanon.
Hezbollah’s weapons have since become woven into the fabric of the Lebanese state and society. Over the last 24 years, Hezbollah’s militia transformed its self-perceived raison d’être from liberator to liberator-protector of the Lebanese state. Hezbollah parliamentarian Mohammad Raad conveyed the self-asserted indispensability of Hezbollah in a recent comment about the appointment of a new Lebanese prime minister, declaring that the prime minister “must know the importance of the resistance in protecting the country and its crucial national role for Lebanon and the Lebanese.” 3
An Unassailable Raison d’être
Hezbollah’s status as liberator-protector is seemingly unassailable. The obstacles to disarming the organization or integrating it into the LAF are formidable. Hezbollah has no immediate incentive to abandon its armed campaign. Their arms bring them power and prestige. Many Lebanese see the militia as a source of pride and would protest efforts to demilitarize it. Implementing the Arab Peace Plan of 2002, UN Resolutions 1559 (adopted in 2004) and 1701 (adopted in 2006)—disbanding and disarming all Lebanese militias (i.e., Hezbollah) by the state—would meet the militia’s opposition, and further fracture society.
The militia and its supporters either ignore, intimidate, or eliminate confrontational politicians, religious figures, public personalities, and civil society members. Walid Jumblatt, the former Progressive Socialist Party leader, parliamentarian, minister, and supporter of the Palestinian cause, declared in 2022 that “we can no longer accept the slogan ‘army, people, resistance.’”4 The comment, an attack on Hezbollah’s operational independence, fell on deaf ears. The Maronite Catholic Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi provoked outrage because of his concern for the safety of Maronites of southern Lebanon during the latest escalation of violence between Hezbollah and Israel. Authorities detained American University of Beirut professor Makram Rabah after a TV interview where he stated publicly known locations of Hezbollah.5 The academic remains under investigation. Former journalist and Hezbollah critic Hanin Ghaddar received a six-month prison sentence in absentia for defamation.6 Civil society activist and Hezbollah critic Lokman Slim received five bullets to the head in 2021.7
The voice of the people goes unheard. Election results and changes in governments do not compel the militia to alter its position. Nor does it require a parliamentary majority to do as it pleases, as shown by its decision to strike Israel in 2006. At the time, Hezbollah and its allies held just 56 out of 128 seats in parliament.8 Government policy is also openly defied. For example, despite the Lebanon government instituting a policy of non-involvement in the civil war in Syria, Hezbollah chose to intervene in the conflict. In Lebanon the organization acts with impunity and indifference to the wishes of the official authorities.
The strength of Hezbollah’s militia is the ultimate trump card for the organization in any domestic challenge or dispute. Hezbollah is battle-hardened from fighting in Syria and against Israel. It has built a network of tunnels, stockpiled weapons and drones, imported precision missiles capable of hitting targets hundreds of miles away, and even created its own airstrip in southern Lebanon. The capacities of the state military—the LAF—pale in comparison to Hezbollah in terms of capabilities and equipment. In fact, the LAF required the assistance of Hezbollah to defeat pockets of the Islamic State located on Lebanon’s eastern border with Syria.
Protesters clash in Beirut in 2019.
Any attempt to use force to rein in Hezbollah would be ruinous. The reasons are several. Any confrontation initiated by the LAF would fragment the force, either resulting in elements refusing to fight or a mutiny. Soldiers will choose their well-being and communal and political identities over their obligation to defend the Lebanese state and nation. Anyone attempting to use force against Hezbollah would thus be bloodied and defeated. The events of 2008 affirmed this reality: Hezbollah seized most of west Beirut in a matter of hours after the state threatened the militia’s independence.9
Apart from the strength and operational independence of Hezbollah, elements of the Lebanese population who are not party members revere the militia, making it even more difficult to disarm the group or integrate it into the LAF.
Many Lebanese still see Hezbollah as the champion of resisting Israel. Hezbollah “succeeded” where other Arab states failed. The group’s “success” against Israel translates into credibility, respect, praise, popularity, and the perception of competence even among non-Hezbollah Lebanese. For them, the organization represents a lone “bright spot” or “asset” in an otherwise bleak Lebanese landscape. Some even want to be associated with the resistance. For example, the Shia Harakat Amal, fields its own militia. Several members have died in the recent fighting in the latest Hezbollah-provoked violence at the Israeli border. Of course, the identification with Hezbollah is far less pronounced among Lebanon’s non-Shia communities, in particular the Maronite Christians, but also the Sunni Muslims.
Political allies benefit from Hezbollah’s strength and popularity or are protected by it.
The founder of the Free Patriotic Movement, Michel Aoun, signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with the militia in 2006. The partnership helped catapult the former head of the Lebanese Army into the presidency. As the head of state, Aoun helped further normalize the ultimately incompatible idea of co-existence between a state army and a militia. Witness his praise in 2022: “the Resistance (Hezbollah) has proven that it is an element of strength for Lebanon.”10 Aoun has more recently changed his tune. He recently criticized Hezbollah for engaging in “a losing battle.”11 The comment is convenient for Aoun considering his presidential term ended and he subsequently stepped down as the leader of the Free Patriotic Movement. Having achieved what he wanted from the relationship with Hezbollah (the presidency), he evidently now feels free once again to revert to a critical stance.
Harakat Amal (Amal Movement), Hezbollah’s parliamentary Shia ally, has also benefited. Amal, particularly its leader Nabih Berri, has increased his stature by being a conduit for dialogue between the United States and Hezbollah during times of war and escalation. Another party member, former member and current parliamentarian Ali Hassan Khalil, received an arrest warrant regarding the Beirut Port blast. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah protested the measure and demanded the removal of the investigating judge. Nasrallah claimed the investigating judge was using “the blood of the victims to serve political interests.”12 Khalil’s warrant was eventually cancelled.
Manipulating and Monopolizing the State of War
Hezbollah’s adherence to a rejectionist ideology and its unassailable status has allowed it to control the resistance narrative in Lebanon. Hezbollah decides who can resist, when to resist, how to resist, and why to resist. Hezbollah employs a seemingly unending array of arguments for maintaining the resistance to Israel. It guarantees the movement’s indefinite primacy, buttresses their power, and perpetually places Lebanon on the brink of war—until the Israeli state can be vanquished.
Political allies benefit from Hezbollah’s strength and popularity or are protected by it.
To frame the resistance as more than just a self-interested Hezbollah and Iranian endeavor, Lebanese (national), Islamic, and Palestinian elements have participated in the resistance from Lebanon. Non-Hezbollah Lebanese militants (i.e. Amal) have lost their lives in the fighting at the border during the last six months. Hezbollah also operates Resistance Brigades for non-Shia Lebanese that allows Christians and Sunnis to participate in the fighting against Israel. Palestinian militants have also periodically launched rockets into northern Israel. All these actions are conducted under the auspices of Hezbollah. Little happens in southern Lebanon without the militia’s knowledge. To provide some perspective on the ubiquity of the organization’s watchful eye, an Irish member of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) was shot and killed by “Hezbollah’s supporters” in December 2022 when his vehicle deviated from a designated route.
Iran’s scion will not relinquish the occupation argument. The reason is obvious. It is the easiest argument to advance, in order to rationalize its power, privileges, and weapons in Lebanon, and maintain popular support. It enables Hezbollah to portray its actions as sacrifices for the interests of the Lebanese nation. As a result, Hezbollah repeatedly discovers outstanding examples of occupation. No withdrawal is complete. No negotiation is final.
Take for example Israel’s May 2000 withdrawal from its security zone in southern Lebanon. Despite the withdrawal being acknowledged by the UN as fulfilling UN Resolution 425, Hezbollah maintains that Lebanese territory remains under Israeli occupation. The most prominent example is the Shebaa Farms, a 22-square kilometer area at the foot of the Golan Heights. Shebaa has become a part of the liberation narrative and arena for repeated armed conflict between Hezbollah and Israel. Just four months after the Israeli withdrawal, in October 2000, Hezbollah launched an attack that killed four Israeli soldiers.
Many Lebanese will tell you they had never heard of the Shebaa Farms until 2000, let alone whether the territory is Lebanese. The international community recognizes the Shebaa Farms as Syrian, not Lebanese territory. It fell under Israeli jurisdiction in 1967, a war that Lebanon did not participate in.
Another example is Lebanon’s maritime boundary with Israel. The discovery of gas fields under the floor of the Mediterranean Sea with a disputed boundary remains another potential conflagration point. The United States mediated a resolution to the boundary and the gas fields between Israel and the Lebanese government.13 However, several days after the announcement of the “historic” resolution, on October 29, Nasrallah declared that a portion of Lebanese territorial waters remain “occupied by the enemy” and demands liberation.14 An additional issue is an aperture in the U.S.-meditated resolution that can be exploited by Hezbollah. Israel’s economic rights to one of the disputed gas fields remains unresolved by the agreement.15 If the gas field yields exportable gas, Hezbollah can assert that Lebanon’s territorial rights are being infringed upon and justify aggression.
Demarcation of the Lebanese-Israeli land boundary is being discussed as a means to alleviate the Hezbollah-Israel violence erupting in the wake of the Hamas October 7 attacks. The Biden administration seeks a replication of its work on a resolution to the maritime boundary and gas fields. Considering Hezbollah’s interests in keeping the liberation argument alive, even if the border issues are resolved between the Lebanese and Israeli governments, Hezbollah will subsequently identify a new outstanding issue at the border. Do not be surprised if they raise the return of seven villages in northern Israel. Hezbollah believes the “Lebanese villages” were annexed by Israel in 1948.16
Demarcation of the Lebanese-Israeli land boundary is being discussed as a means to alleviate the Hezbollah-Israel violence erupting in the wake of the Hamas October 7 attacks.
Somewhat ironically, withdrawals and negotiated resolutions have emboldened Hezbollah, not pacified or appeased the militia. Following the maritime agreement, Nasrallah declared: “You are mistaken if you think that the resistance in Lebanon has been deterred from attacking.”17 The comment is further evidence of its adherence to maximalist outcomes. Negotiations and concessions are not the end, they are a means to an end—the eventual destruction of the Israeli state.
Complementing the liberation argument is the belief that Hezbollah and its weapons protect Lebanon and its interests. Adopted after the May 2000 Israeli withdrawal, Hezbollah believes its militia deters Israel from committing aggression against Lebanon or exploiting the country. The militia presents itself as providing another layer of security to Lebanese Armed Forces and additional leverage for Lebanon.
For example, Hezbollah interprets the 2022 resolution of the Israeli-Lebanese maritime boundary and the division of the gas fields as a “great historic victory.”18 Leading up to the “victory,” Nasrallah threatened war. He declared in July that “all the options are on the table” after the group launched three drones at a gas rig operating in Israeli waters.19 Hezbollah also conducted “exceptional mobilization” of its militia.20 The group believes its threat of war, show of force, and actions extracted concessions from Israel—protecting and realizing Lebanon’s full interests.
Another example of the “protection argument” is Hezbollah’s entrance into the Syrian civil war. Hezbollah proclaimed that by entering the war in Syria, it was preventing spillover of the war into Lebanon and keeping Islamists from coming to Lebanon—the best defense is a good offense. Hezbollah’s decision ignored the Lebanese government’s policy of disassociation from the Syrian civil war. Lebanese civilians paid a deadly price for the intervention. Hezbollah’s intervention in Syria subjected Lebanese citizens to a series of suicide bombings by ISIS.21
On October 8, Hezbollah added solidarity with the Palestinians of Gaza to the resistance narrative. Hezbollah has launched almost daily attacks on northern Israel. The motivation is to pressure Israel into ending its attack on Gaza after Hamas launched its attack on October 7. After nearly a year, Hezbollah has failed to end the Israeli attack, while Lebanon is on the receiving end of Israeli responses.
Engaging with Israel over developments in Gaza cannot be connected to Lebanon’s national interests. Lebanon has no military obligations to the Palestinian people. Furthermore, if the militia cared about the plight of Palestinians, they would do more to alleviate the predicament of thousands of Palestinians residing in Lebanon. For decades Palestinians in Lebanon have lived in squalor and with few rights. It is evidence of Hezbollah’s manipulation of the state of war to advance its Islamic-Iranian agenda.
The solidarity argument adds to examples of Hezbollah actions that cannot be explained by liberating or protecting Lebanon. The most notable example is from 2006. Hezbollah militants crossed into Israel proper and killed and captured several Israeli soldiers. The act of aggression triggered a 33-day war. Nasrallah apologized to the Lebanese for the miscalculated aggression. Nevertheless, the militia continued to engage in similar activities. A recent example is the bombing at Megiddo Junction in 2023.
Suspended Animation
The state of war with Israel prevents Lebanon from developing along successful lines. It places Lebanon constantly on the precipice of a war that disrupts society, further corrodes the state, stalls recovery, and discourages development.
Over a dozen assassinations have occurred in Lebanon over the last 17 years. No guilty verdicts have been announced, let alone individuals brought to trial by the Lebanese judicial system. The international tribunal created to prosecute the assassins of former Prime Minister Rafiq el-Hariri only produced one conviction. The individual has never been arrested. The investigation into the Beirut port explosion is the latest search for justice to encounter delays and disruptions. Two different judges have been appointed to the case. Nasrallah has demanded the second judge be removed. Nasrallah claims the investigation into the port explosion is “politicized.”22
The current situation demonstrates to citizens the state’s inability or unwillingness to provide security. Rights are infringed upon as demonstrated by the detainment of Professor Makram Rabah. Corruption and the defiance of the law are further enabled. Societal divides are aggravated and distrust deepens.
Lebanon is currently a dystopia. Its economy experienced an implosion not witnessed by another country in more than 150 years.23 Since August 2019, the Lebanese lira lost 98 percent of its value.24 The inflation rate stands at 212 percent.25 Lebanon requires electricity from other countries.26 Life-saving medicines are at a premium. Buildings collapse and thoroughfares become impassable during rainstorms. Citizens wait in lines for bread and gasoline.27 Cholera outbreaks periodically afflict parts of the country.28
Substantial development and investment remain a pipe dream. Why would a responsible investor consider Lebanon? The Lebanese themselves will not invest in the future of the country as demonstrated by the constant rate of emigration.
Even prior to the tit-for-tat exchanges between Hezbollah and Israel since Oct. 7, 2023, the situation has been ripe for violence. Hezbollah launched drones into Israel and at Israeli gas rigs in the Mediterranean Sea. Witness the threatening July 12, 2022, words of Nasrallah: “If you want to prevent Lebanon from exercising its right to save itself by extracting oil and gas, no one will be able to extract oil and gas.”29 Nasrallah went a step further on February 16, 2023, by threatening to attack and kill Israelis over the gas fields. It did not concern the ownership of the gas fields, rather it was about the harvesting of the gas.
A Never-Ending Nightmare
Lebanon’s relationship with “resistance” dates to 1967 when Palestinian fighters began launching attacks from Lebanon into Israel. During that time, the Palestinians and more recently Hezbollah have demonstrated little adherence to boundaries, the rights of citizens, agreements, or international edicts. The 57-year-old mostly low intensity conflict has only produced death, destruction, and uncertainty for Lebanon. The latest Hezbollah-initiated escalation of violence has the potential to produce irreparable damage to an already debilitated society and a floundering state. Any process that may bring change to this situation does not appear to be currently on the horizon. Disaster, meanwhile, as a result of the current direction remains a real possibility.
1. “Talks launched in Lebanon to integrate Hezbollah’s arms.” Gulf News, September 16, 2008.
2. Eric Bordenkircher, “‘Lebanonization’: Framing Policy for the Puzzles of the Middle East.” Middle East Policy. Spring 2020 (27:1), 46.
3. “Raad: PM-designate, ‘while not a saint’, must recognize ‘resistance national role,’ Naharnet Newsdesk, June 20, 2022.
4. “Joumblatt and Geagea take aim at Hezbollah’s weapons,” L’Orient Today, May 21, 2022.
5. “Lebanese academic criticizes Hezbollah for dragging country into war, gets detained – report,” The Jerusalem Post, March 19, 2024.
6. “Lebanon orders jail term for journalist who slammed army, Hezbollah in DC speech,” The Times of Israel, January 18, 2018.
7. Kareem Chehayeb, “Lebanon: The assassination of activist Lokman Slim, one year on,” Al-Jazeera, February 3, 2022.
8. Esther Pan, “Lebanon: Election Results,” Council on Foreign Relations, June 21, 2005.
9. Robert F. Worth and Nadia Bakri, “Hezbollah Seizes Swath of Beirut From U.S.-Backed Lebanon Government,” The New York Times, May 10, 2008.
10. “Aoun announces Lebanon’s official approval of border deal with Israel,” Naharnet Newsdesk, October 13, 2022.
11. “Aoun dubs Hezbollah’s involvement in Gaza war ‘a losing battle’,” Naharnet Newsdesk, March 15, 2024.
12. Kareem Cheheyab, “Beirut blast probe suspended again as judge issues arrest warrant,” Al-Jazeera, Oct 12, 2001.
13. Press statement from Antony Blinken, U.S. Secretary of State, “Historic Breakthrough on the Israel-Lebanon Maritime Boundary,” U.S. State Department, October 11, 2022.
14. “Nasrallah: Agreement is a ‘victory,’ but Lebanon did not get ‘100 percent of its demands’,” L’Orient Today, October 29, 2022.
15. https://www.naharnet.com/stories/en/292953-full-text-of-israel-lebanon-maritime-border-deal
16. Danny Rubinstein, “The Seven Lost Villages,” Haaretz, October 1, 2007.
17. “Nasrallah: Agreement is a ‘victory,’ but Lebanon did not get ‘100 percent of its demands’,” L’Orient Today, October 29, 2022.
18. Ibid.
19. Bassem Mroue, “Hezbollah threatens Israel with escalation in border spat,” Associated Press, July 13, 2022. Nasrallah warns of sea border ‘escalation’ if Lebanon demands not met”, Naharnet Newdesk, August 19, 2022.
20. “Hezbollah chief says armed group’s mobilization to end,” Reuters, October 27, 2022.
21. Laila Bassam, “Car bomb kills 20 in Hezbollah’s Beirut stronghold,“ Reuters, October 15, 2013. Kareem Shaheen, “Isis claims responsibility as suicide bombers kill dozens in Beirut,” The Guardian, November 12, 2015.
22. “Hezbollah chief Nasrallah says Beirut port explosion investigator biased,” Reuters, August 7, 2021.
23. Ben Hubbard, “Collapse: Inside Lebanon’s Worst Economic Meltdown in More Than a Century,” The New York Times, August 4, 2021.
24. “Lebanon to sell unlimited US dollars to prop up collapsing pound,” Reuters, March 21, 2023
25. “Trading Economics,”https://tradingeconomics.com/lebanon/inflation-cpi.
26. Nader Durgham and Liz Sly, “Lebanon’s national electricity grid collapses,” The Washington Post, October 9, 2021.
27. Sami Moubayed, “With worsening food shortage, Lebanon in a state of crisis,” Gulf News, August 1, 2022. Ben Hubbard, “As Lebanon’s Crisis Deepens, Lines for Fuel Grow, and Food and Medicine Are Scarce,” The New York Times, July 5, 2021.
28. “Lebanon warns deadly cholera outbreak ‘spreading rapidly’,” Al-Jazeera, October 19, 2021.
29. Tobias Siegal, “Nasrallah threatens war over Israel-Lebanon maritime border dispute,” The Times of Israel, July 13, 2022.
***Eric Bordenkircher, Ph.D., is a research fellow at UCLA’s Center for Middle East Development. His twitter handle is @UCLA_Eagle. The views represented in this piece are his own and do not necessarily represent the position of UCLA or the Center for Middle East Development.

Tiny Useless Lebanon Would be Boring Without Lovely Israel, Brotherly Arabs, Cordial Iran
Hanibaal Atheos/https://lebanoniznogood.blogspot.com/September 16, 2024
The Lebanese have endured nearly 50 years of entertainment whose stars are the Zionist monstrosity south of the border (1948-present time), the Arab skullduggery (~1960s - 1980s) all around it, and the Iranian infatuation (1980s - present time). What would we have done without all these lovely ultra-religious barbarians, some worshipping good old ghastly biblical Iron Age Yahweh, others the equally terrifying Bronze Age Allah and their human manifestations in the form of prophets, presidents, prime ministers, monarchs, dictators? It's been 5 decades of displacement, moving, traveling, hiding in basements, going to endlesss funerals, exiles, family gatherings every 5 years or so, destruction of infrastructure....
Thank you Israel, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Egypt, Emirates and others who start by funding and inciting the war then come back (except destitute Syria and stingy Israel) with money to rebuild what you destroyed and also to reconstitute your terror subsidiaries for another round of enterntainment. Thanks to y'all, we have discovered zen living from one's suitcase, we fengshui'ed our lives down to their most basic necessities (like the people of Gaza right now) and we explored the world with its so many countries, some just as lovely and barbaric as you, others not.
Two reassuring headlines, toe to toe:
Israeli minister says time running out for diplomatic solution with Hezbollah in Lebanon
Hezbollah [i.e. Iran] warns Israel against Lebanon border flare-up
The lovely Hebrew prophet Yoav Gallant who never smiles. I think the man is suicidal given the tens of thousands of children he has killed...
and the even lovelier Shiite prophet of doom, bunker-bound cell-phone-free Hassan Nasrallah who is always yelling. His parents may have constantly shushed him as a young boy
Both men are physically, if not mentally, circumcized, to say the least.
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on Monday that there will be no diplomatic solution to the standoff with the Iranian-backed Hezbollah movement in southern Lebanon. US Special envoy Amos Hochstein, a cool world-trotter who can sell death to death itself, is trying to sell fake gold to the two dudes portrayed above.
He is visiting the lovely Gallant to discuss the ongoing entertainment along the border between Israel and Lebanon, which has displaced 100,000 people on each side of the border, the Zionist settlers further south, and the Shiite crazies further north. He should visit Gallant's alter ego Nasrallah in Lebanon, but Nasrallah is like a virgin bride: She doesn't meet men in her underground bunker. Instead, she has castrati slaves (i.e. the Lebanese so-called "government") who do the talking with the matchmaker Hochstein.
The chorus of the Israeli media and radical ultra-religious barbarian recent Jewish converts from Eastern Europe is chanting tunes like "rapid border operation" (kind of like Putin's special operation in Ukraine) or "massive invasion", all aimed at creating yet another (I believe this would be the fifteenth in 50 years) buffer zone in southern Lebanon. Meanwhile, the dirgey laments of the eternally victimized Shiites - something they share with their Jewish brethren - look up to the sky and scream to Allah to descend fire and brimstone upon the Jews who want to steal Al-Aqsa Mosque and transform it into a third Jewish temple. Bottom line: The Shiite Iranian crazies want to liberate Palestine and Jerusalem-Al-Quds when they can barely dare crawl out of their bunkers and tunnels.
The Jewish-Muslim entertainement consists of exchanging missiles, rockets, shells and fancy drones, against the background of the exclusive melody of Israeli jets striking deep into Lebanese territory at Mach 2 or 3. Hezbollah has already shown some of its equipment but has reserved mysterious prototypes of the deadly entertainment for the real show, again, if forced to do so. Israel too appears reluctant to start the show, but is edging closer to doing so. For the Lebanese, the suspense is more killing than a bomb from the sky.
An example of a theater stage on which Orthodox Jews and Shiite Muslims perform
Despite its reluctance to join the Jewish-led entertainment, Hezbollah said that, if necessary, it was ready to displace more Zionist settlers if Israel insists, according to Naim Qassem, another turbaned representative of the Iranian theobarbarity in Beirut. He too leads a lavish life underground without a cell phone and has promised, if compelled, to ensure "large losses of life on both sides."
From the vantage point of the Lebanese living relatively far from the entertainment theater, they are stocking up on whiskey and junk food to watch the fireworks. Lebanon is tiny (some 4,000 square miles) but it is all rugged mountains. So you could be 10 miles away from the theater as the crow flies but still feel safe. Back in the 1970s, Lebanese people would be seen setting up picnic tables with food, drinks and hookahs along the high mountain ridges to watch the fighting in Beirut.
Preparations for the Grand Flare-up Party are ongoing. Both performers are testing their equipment with controlled strikes by each side against the other side.

For Lebanon, Netanyahu’s Israel is more dangerous than Sharon’s
Ghassan Charbel/Asharq Al-Awsat./September 16, 2024
On Sunday, Israeli planes dropped leaflets over Wazzani in southern Lebanon, demanding residents leave immediately under the pretext that Hezbollah was firing from the area. The most alarming part of the message was a phrase warning the population not to return “until the end of the war.”
The Israeli army’s quick claim that the leaflets were distributed on the orders of an officer acting on his own initiative does not diminish the seriousness of what is going on in the minds of Israeli security officials. Chief among their concerns is the view that Hezbollah’s Iranian arsenal poses an existential threat.
This is not the first time Israel has resorted to dropping threatening flyers over Lebanon. The Lebanese have long, bitter experiences with this. In the summer of 1982, the Israeli army surrounded Beirut and its planes dropped leaflets designating “safe routes” for residents to leave the capital. They did the same in south Lebanon as Israeli tanks advanced rapidly toward the capital.
It would not be an exaggeration to say that the current situation is far more dangerous than it was during the Israeli invasion that summer. At that time, Israeli pressure aimed to force Palestine Liberation Organization fighters to leave Lebanon, which was achieved after a ceasefire.
The current situation is far more dangerous than it was during the Israeli invasion in the summer of 1982
Back then, Israel saw the threat as coming from Yasser Arafat’s forces and his keffiyeh-wrapped appearances from a Lebanese balcony. At that time, Lebanon did not host any force that Israel considered an existential threat — one that needed to be eliminated. From that summer of invasion and flyers, Hezbollah would be born, after Iran viewed Lebanon as an opportunity to implement its constitutional mandate of “exporting the revolution.”
The dropping of leaflets over Lebanon today is quite different from what occurred in the early 1980s. Israel is very different from what it was even a year ago. The region today does not resemble what it was four decades ago. Lebanon has changed and so have Syria, Iraq and Yemen.
We can also talk about a different Iran, with its arsenal, regional presence, nuclear ambitions and the imprints left by Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani in four Arab countries, not to mention his involvement in Gaza’s armament, training programs and war tunnel creation.
Israel’s defense minister and some of its generals do not hide their desire to repeat Gaza’s scenes on Lebanese soil. They see war with Hezbollah as an alternative to war with Iran itself. They view it as a war with Iran, but on Lebanese soil. Within this context lie dreams of restoring deterrence, imposing a long-term ceasefire and making Lebanon pay a heavy price for Hezbollah’s “war of attrition” strategy, which the group chose to wage at a calculated pace following the outbreak of the war on Oct. 7.
In previous calculations, observers would dismiss the likelihood of Israel waging a full-scale war against Lebanon. Hezbollah is not encircled like Hamas is in Gaza. Its arsenal is advanced and its supply routes remain open through Syria, with connections to Iran via Iraq. Moreover, Iran, which can afford to provide limited support to Hamas in its confrontation with Israel’s military machine, could not exercise such restraint if Hezbollah were to face a crippling blow. In the 2006 war, Soleimani was present in Beirut, actively participating. Today’s calculations appear to be different.
In assessing the imminent danger facing Lebanon, attention must be paid to the changes occurring in Israel
In assessing the imminent danger facing Lebanon, attention must be paid to the changes occurring in Israel. In recent months, Israel’s most dangerous prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has succeeded in turning the conflict in Gaza into an existential war, not merely a war of discipline or revenge. It is likely that even Yahya Sinwar did not anticipate this. The prevailing view was that Israel could not endure the deaths of hundreds of its soldiers and the strain of a prolonged war that would exhaust its population and economy.
This issue is not just about Netanyahu’s personal concerns and his fear of the “day after” the war, with investigative committees and courts awaiting. It also involves the military and security establishment’s reading of the scale of the threats, the priorities and the required costs to confront them. The Israeli public’s belief that the current war is an existential one leads them to tolerate the burdens of a costly conflict in terms of human lives and the economy.
Netanyahu has also succeeded in prolonging the war until America enters its election season coma, particularly after confirming that its fleets have no choice but to support him in the event of a regionwide confrontation.
In recent months, Netanyahu has shown an ability to defy American advice and warnings, as if he is attempting to turn the current war into a decisive one that would spare Israel from renewed fighting in the coming decades. Recent Western accusations against Iran — of providing missiles and drones to Russia and concealing its nuclear ambitions — could further push him toward a major war on Lebanese soil. The combat would not be easy, of course, and the destruction would not be limited to the Lebanese side, but the prolonged war in Gaza reveals that a shift has occurred in Israel regarding its capacity to wage a lengthy battle.
Hamas’ leadership likely did not expect the war to last long enough to nearly mark its first anniversary. Similarly, Hezbollah’s leadership probably did not expect the war of attrition to continue to this extent or at its current cost. Hezbollah ties the halt of its war of attrition to the cessation of hostilities in Gaza, but what if Israel decides that the second phase of its “existential war” should unfold on Lebanese territory and it unleashes its advanced killing machine on an already fractured country?
It is clear that Lebanon is slipping further into the danger zone. The country is exhausted and the majority of its people oppose involvement in a full-scale, open-ended war, but it lacks the means to stave off the threat of conflict. Only the US can avert the looming danger, but Lebanon is not prepared to pay the price for America’s role. Netanyahu’s Israel is more dangerous than Ariel Sharon’s Israel.
**Ghassan Charbel is editor-in-chief of Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper. X: @GhasanCharbel

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on September 16-17/2024
Suspect in apparent assassination attempt against Trump charged with federal gun crimes. Here's what authorities say happened at his Florida golf course.
David Artavia/Yahoo News/September 16, 2024
Ryan Wesley Routh, 58, made his first appearance in federal court Monday morning.
The FBI is investigating an apparent assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump after a man armed with an AK-style rifle was spotted near Trump’s golf course in West Palm Beach, Fla., on Sunday. The suspect, identified as Ryan Wesley Routh, 58, was taken into custody in nearby Martin County after fleeing the scene. He made his first appearance in federal court Monday morning and was charged with federal gun crimes, including possession of a firearm by a convicted felon and possession of firearm with an obliterated serial number. Additional charges are likely.
Trump, who was golfing with longtime friend and adviser Steve Witkoff, was unharmed and quickly moved to a secure location. This is the second apparent assassination attempt against Trump’s life within the last nine weeks.Speaking to reporters at the White House Monday, President Biden said that he was thankful the former president was safe. Biden added that the Secret Service "needs more help,” and urged Congress to address the agency's needs.
What happened on Sunday, according to authorities
During a press briefing on Sunday, officials said that U.S. Secret Service agents opened fire after spotting the suspect near the golf course's perimeter. It remains unclear if the individual fired any shots before fleeing in an SUV. The suspect was taken into custody in a neighboring county. The incident happened around 1:30 p.m. ET, authorities said. Palm Beach County Sheriff Ric Bradshaw stated that the suspect, armed with an AK-style rifle, was positioned roughly 300 to 500 yards away from Trump, concealed in shrubbery that lines the course just a few holes ahead of where Trump was. According to the criminal complaint filed in U.S. District Court, Southern District of Florida, cell phone location data obtained by the FBI indicates that Routh "was located in the vicinity of the area of the tree line" for nearly 12 hours, from just before 2:00 a.m. ET Sunday until about 1:30 p.m. ET.
Witness helped authorities track down suspect
The suspect fled in a vehicle but was quickly apprehended on I-95 in Martin County, north of Palm Beach. Martin County Sheriff William Snyder said the suspect was unarmed at the time of the arrest. Bradshaw said that a witness saw a man fleeing the golf course bushes. The witness took a photo of the suspect's black Nissan, and a license plate reader spotted the vehicle. The Martin County Sheriff's Office posted footage from an officer's body camera of Routh's arrest to its Facebook page. FBI calls it another apparent 'assassination attempt' on Trump’s life. The FBI has confirmed that it is investigating the incident as a potential assassination attempt. Law enforcement officials recovered the AK-style rifle from the scene and are processing additional items found at the location, including two backpacks and a GoPro camera.
The motive for the attack remains unclear.
Trump responds: 'I AM SAFE AND WELL!'
After Sunday’s incident, Trump remained at the club for several hours while Secret Service agents double-checked the security at his Mar-a-Lago residence before he returned there safely, according to law enforcement. Trump emailed his supporters: “There were gunshots in my vicinity, but before rumors start spiraling out of control, I wanted you to hear this first: I AM SAFE AND WELL!" He added, “Nothing will slow me down. I will NEVER SURRENDER!”
Trump’s running mate, Sen. JD Vance, said on social media that the former president is “in good spirits.”Fox News host Sean Hannity said on air that he spoke to Trump and Witkoff after Sunday's incident. According to Hannity, the pair were golfing at the fifth hole when they heard "pop, pop, pop, pop." Witkoff said that within seconds, Secret Service agents "pounced" and "covered" Trump. According to Hannity, Witkoff said that after Secret Service agents protected him, Trump thanked all of them individually before saying: "'I was even. It was the fifth hole. I had a birdie putt. I really wanted to finish the hole.’ So classic Trump, if you ask me.” Vice President Kamala Harris said she was "glad" that Trump was safe. "Violence has no place in America," she posted on X. In a statement from the White House, President Biden commended the work of law enforcement agencies who protected Trump and said he was "relieved" that Trump was unharmed. "As I have said many times, there is no place for political violence or for any violence ever in our country, and I have directed my team to continue to ensure that Secret Service has every resource, capability and protective measure necessary to ensure the former President’s continued safety," Biden's statement read.
Questions about security
On July 13, Trump was grazed by a bullet during an assassination attempt at a rally in Butler, Pa. One rallygoer was killed and two others were injured. The Secret Service killed the shooter, identified as a 20-year-old who climbed to the roof of a building nearby.
A bipartisan House task force investigating the July assassination attempt requested a briefing from the Secret Service this week about Sunday's apparent assassination attempt. "The Task Force is monitoring this attempted assassination of former President Trump in West Palm Beach this afternoon. We have requested a briefing with the U.S. Secret Service about what happened and how security responded,” Republican Rep. Mike Kelly of Pennsylvania and Democratic Rep. Jason Crow of Colorado said. After that attack, the Secret Service came under scrutiny. The agency acknowledged denying some requests from Trump's team for increased security at his events in the years leading up to the most recent incident. Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle resigned amid scrutiny over the agency's handling of Trump's security. Since July, authorities have increased security measures around Trump. However, because Trump isn't the current president, the entire golf course was not surrounded with security — and an agent was sweeping the grounds just one hole ahead of Trump, Bradshaw said. "If he was [the president], we would've had this entire golf course surrounded. But because he's not, the security is limited to the areas that the Secret Service deems possible," he continued. "They provided exactly what the protection should have been, and their agent did a fantastic job," Bradshaw added.

Who is Ryan Wesley Routh, the suspect in another apparent Trump assassination attempt?
Dylan Stableford/Yahoo News/September 16, 2024
Suspect in apparent assassination attempt against Trump charged with federal gun crimes. Here's what authorities say happened at his Florida golf course.
Ryan Wesley Routh, 58, made his first appearance in federal court Monday morning.
The FBI is investigating an apparent assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump after a man armed with an AK-style rifle was spotted near Trump’s golf course in West Palm Beach, Fla., on Sunday.
The suspect, identified as Ryan Wesley Routh, 58, was taken into custody in nearby Martin County after fleeing the scene. He made his first appearance in federal court Monday morning and was charged with federal gun crimes, including possession of a firearm by a convicted felon and possession of firearm with an obliterated serial number. Additional charges are likely. Trump, who was golfing with longtime friend and adviser Steve Witkoff, was unharmed and quickly moved to a secure location. This is the second apparent assassination attempt against Trump’s life within the last nine weeks. Speaking to reporters at the White House Monday, President Biden said that he was thankful the former president was safe. Biden added that the Secret Service "needs more help,” and urged Congress to address the agency's needs.
What happened on Sunday, according to authorities
During a press briefing on Sunday, officials said that U.S. Secret Service agents opened fire after spotting the suspect near the golf course's perimeter. It remains unclear if the individual fired any shots before fleeing in an SUV. The suspect was taken into custody in a neighboring county. The incident happened around 1:30 p.m. ET, authorities said. Palm Beach County Sheriff Ric Bradshaw stated that the suspect, armed with an AK-style rifle, was positioned roughly 300 to 500 yards away from Trump, concealed in shrubbery that lines the course just a few holes ahead of where Trump was. According to the criminal complaint filed in U.S. District Court, Southern District of Florida, cell phone location data obtained by the FBI indicates that Routh "was located in the vicinity of the area of the tree line" for nearly 12 hours, from just before 2:00 a.m. ET Sunday until about 1:30 p.m. ET. Read more from the AP: Trump was the subject of an apparent assassination attempt at his Florida golf club, the FBI says
Witness helped authorities track down suspect
The suspect fled in a vehicle but was quickly apprehended on I-95 in Martin County, north of Palm Beach. Martin County Sheriff William Snyder said the suspect was unarmed at the time of the arrest. Bradshaw said that a witness saw a man fleeing the golf course bushes. The witness took a photo of the suspect's black Nissan, and a license plate reader spotted the vehicle. The Martin County Sheriff's Office posted footage from an officer's body camera of Routh's arrest to its Facebook page. FBI calls it another apparent 'assassination attempt' on Trump’s life. The FBI has confirmed that it is investigating the incident as a potential assassination attempt. Law enforcement officials recovered the AK-style rifle from the scene and are processing additional items found at the location, including two backpacks and a GoPro camera.
The motive for the attack remains unclear.
Trump responds: 'I AM SAFE AND WELL!'
After Sunday’s incident, Trump remained at the club for several hours while Secret Service agents double-checked the security at his Mar-a-Lago residence before he returned there safely, according to law enforcement.
Trump emailed his supporters: “There were gunshots in my vicinity, but before rumors start spiraling out of control, I wanted you to hear this first: I AM SAFE AND WELL!"
He added, “Nothing will slow me down. I will NEVER SURRENDER!”Trump’s running mate, Sen. JD Vance, said on social media that the former president is “in good spirits.”
Fox News host Sean Hannity said on air that he spoke to Trump and Witkoff after Sunday's incident. According to Hannity, the pair were golfing at the fifth hole when they heard "pop, pop, pop, pop." Witkoff said that within seconds, Secret Service agents "pounced" and "covered" Trump. According to Hannity, Witkoff said that after Secret Service agents protected him, Trump thanked all of them individually before saying: "'I was even. It was the fifth hole. I had a birdie putt. I really wanted to finish the hole.’ So classic Trump, if you ask me.”
Vice President Kamala Harris said she was "glad" that Trump was safe. "Violence has no place in America," she posted on X.
In a statement from the White House, President Biden commended the work of law enforcement agencies who protected Trump and said he was "relieved" that Trump was unharmed. "As I have said many times, there is no place for political violence or for any violence ever in our country, and I have directed my team to continue to ensure that Secret Service has every resource, capability and protective measure necessary to ensure the former President’s continued safety," Biden's statement read.
On July 13, Trump was grazed by a bullet during an assassination attempt at a rally in Butler, Pa. One rallygoer was killed and two others were injured. The Secret Service killed the shooter, identified as a 20-year-old who climbed to the roof of a building nearby. A bipartisan House task force investigating the July assassination attempt requested a briefing from the Secret Service this week about Sunday's apparent assassination attempt.
"The Task Force is monitoring this attempted assassination of former President Trump in West Palm Beach this afternoon. We have requested a briefing with the U.S. Secret Service about what happened and how security responded,” Republican Rep. Mike Kelly of Pennsylvania and Democratic Rep. Jason Crow of Colorado said. After that attack, the Secret Service came under scrutiny. The agency acknowledged denying some requests from Trump's team for increased security at his events in the years leading up to the most recent incident. Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle resigned amid scrutiny over the agency's handling of Trump's security. Since July, authorities have increased security measures around Trump. However, because Trump isn't the current president, the entire golf course was not surrounded with security — and an agent was sweeping the grounds just one hole ahead of Trump, Bradshaw said. "If he was [the president], we would've had this entire golf course surrounded. But because he's not, the security is limited to the areas that the Secret Service deems possible," he continued."They provided exactly what the protection should have been, and their agent did a fantastic job," Bradshaw added.

Israel rattled by talk that Netanyahu may replace defence minister
Steven Scheer/JERUSALEM (Reuters)/September 16, 2024
Reports that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was considering firing Defence Minister Yoav Gallant shook the political landscape and sent Israeli financial markets lower on Monday. Israel's leading television channels and news websites reported that Netanyahu, under pressure from far-right coalition partners, was contemplating firing Gallant and replacing him with a former ally turned rival, Gideon Saar, who is currently a member of the opposition. Such a move would be a major shock to the political and security landscape, especially with the looming threat of all-out war between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon. The shekel weakened 1% to nearly 3.75 versus the dollar, while main Tel Aviv share indices were down 1.4% to 1.6%. The Israeli currency was expected to appreciate after data on Sunday showed Israel's inflation rate rose more than expected to 3.6% in August, a jump analysts said would delay rate cuts well into 2025 in contrast to expected rate cuts in the United States and Europe. Netanyahu denied that he was in negotiations with Saar, though he did not refer to his plans for Gallant. Saar denied that he was negotiating with some members of the coalition.
NETANYAHU AND GALLANT AT ODDS
It would not be the first time Netanyahu has tried to fire Gallant. The two have been at odds over a number of government policies and, more recently, the handling of the war in Gaza and the terms of a possible hostage release and ceasefire deal with Islamist militant group Hamas. Centrist lawmakers criticised Netanyahu for getting sidetracked by political wrangling rather than focusing on the task at hand. "Instead of the prime minister being busy with victory over Hamas, returning the hostages, with the war against Hezbollah and allowing (evacuated) residents of the north to return to their homes, he is busy with despicable political dealings and replacing the defence minister," centrist lawmaker Benny Gantz wrote on social media. Police minister Itamar Ben Gvir, who heads an ultranationalist party in Netanyahu's coalition, has for months been advocating to replace Gallant and called for his immediate dismissal. "‮W‬e must resolve the situation in the north and Gallant is not the right man to lead this," Ben Gvir said referring to a possible escalation with Hezbollah. Tens of thousands of Israelis have been displaced near the Lebanese border in the north due to daily rocket fire from Hezbollah. Gallant, who rose to the rank of general during a 35-year military career, on Sunday told U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin he was committed to returning residents back to their homes and that the "possibility for an agreed framework is running out."On Monday, he said the only way to return residents evacuated from the north to their homes was with military action. In March 2023, Netanyahu fired Gallant after he broke ranks with the government and urged a halt to a highly contested plan to overhaul the judicial system. That triggered mass protests and Netanyahu backtracked.

PM Netanyahu is planning to dismiss Gallant in immediate future - report
Jerusalem Post/September 16/2024
According to the source, Netanyahu's associates are negotiating with United Right Chairman Gideon Sa'ar to replace Gallant.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is preparing to dismiss Defense Minister Yoav Gallant in the immediate future, a source in the Prime Minister's Office told KAN News on Monday. According to the source, Netanyahu's associates are negotiating with United Right Chairman Gideon Sa'ar to replace Gallant. However, Sa'ar denied the claims. In response to the news, the Prime Minister's Office said, "The publications regarding negotiations with Gideon Sa'ar [to replace Gallant] are incorrect" but did not make any mention of the dismissal of the Defense Minister. National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir posted on X/Twitter that he had been calling on Netanyahu to fire Gallant for months, "and the time has come to do so immediately." "A decision must be made about the North and Gallant is not the right man to make it," he added. MK Meirav Cohen said, "If it is possible to replace a defense minister during a war, it's possible to change a prime minister during a war." Democrats leader, Yair Golan, said "Gideon, unflattering polls are no reason to abandon your values. For years, you've preached how corrupt Netanyahu is and how he acts out of personal motives. If you join his government, you'll become exactly what you've spoken out against.""Those who don’t want elections know why. When they happen, and the public ousts this failure of a government, we’ll be there as a clean, honest alternative that doesn’t trade values for positions."
"To avoid elections, Netanyahu will fire Gallant, appoint Gideon as Defense Minister, start a war with Lebanon, which will surely turn into a full-scale regional war. The horrors of the war will allow him public support, silencing the protest and forgetting the hostages." Benny Gantz criticized Netanyahu: "Instead of the Prime Minister focusing on defeating Hamas, returning the hostages, fighting Hezbollah, and ensuring the safe return of northern residents to their homes, he is preoccupied with disgraceful political maneuvers and replacing the Defense Minister just as Israel is about to begin an intense campaign in the North."
"This reflects poor judgment and distorted priorities."KAN also reported that senior officials in the ultra-Orthodox parties said that they "could work better" with Sa'ar than with Gallant regarding the specifications of the Haredi draft law. In response to rumors, the hostage families' headquarters said that the appointment of Sa'ar "would be a clear and unequivocal admission by the Prime Minister that he has decided to finally abandon the hostages."
"MK Sa'ar has previously expressed his clear and public opposition to the deal, calling it 'terms of surrender.'"Sa'ar's party currently has four MKs, the other three being MKs Ze'ev Elkin, Sharren Haskel, and Michel Bouskila. According to a Channel 12 report, the other three MKs will also receive government positions – with Elkin and Haskel becoming ministers, and Buskila becoming the chairman of a Knesset committee. Another report by Channel 12 was that the prime minister was also considering appointing Sa'ar as foreign minister, and appointing either current foreign minister Yisrael Katz or Agriculture Minister Avi Dichter as defense minister instead of Gallant.  Justice Minister Yariv Levin reportedly was the mediator between Sa'ar and Netanyahu. The justice minister refused the report. A number of Likud MKs expressed support for the move. MK Dan Illouz wrote on X that it was time for Sa'ar to "enter under the stretcher" instead of remaining "irrelevant in the opposition." Another Likud MK, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said that Gallant needed to be removed since he was acting according to "has-beens" and not according to Netanyahu's policies. Sa'ar was a worthy choice as defense minister, the MK said, adding that defense ministers did not have a security background. The MK gave as an example the former defense ministers Moshe Arens and Amir Peretz who were "excellent" despite not coming from a security background. Another difference of opinion between Netanyahu and Gallant has been on the issue of the haredi IDF draft. The prime minister has preferred to keep the haredi draft to the IDF to a minimum so as not to risk a departure by the haredi parties from his government. Gallant, however, has demanded a broader solution that will be accepted by parts of the opposition, whereby haredi men will be drafted in larger numbers in order to meet IDF manpower needs. Sa'ar said in a statement that the issue of the haredi draft had not come up in negotiations, and that his position has remained unchanged, that "the legislation must be based on the IDF's needs and coordinated with the security establishment."
Disagreements over the North
According to KAN, tensions between Netanyahu and Gallant reached a peak on Sunday night regarding the escalating situation with Hezbollah. KAN reported Netanyahu as saying that "If Gallant tries to thwart an operation in the North - he will be replaced."
The commander of the IDF's Northern Command, Uri Gordin, supported a limited operation, while Gallant opposed it.

Israel Markets Drop on Reports Netanyahu May Fire Defense Chief
Paul Wallace and Dan Williams/Bloomberg/September 16, 2024
Israeli markets weakened after widespread reports in local media that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was considering firing his defense minister, Yoav Gallant, and replacing him with Gideon Saar, an opposition lawmaker. Netanyahu’s office put out a statement soon after the emergence of the reports, carried by broadcaster Kan, the Jerusalem Post and others. While he denied he was in negotiations with Saar, he did not refer to Gallant. “The reports on the matter of negotiations with Gideon Saar are not correct,” Netanyahu’s office said. Gallant’s office declined to comment to Bloomberg. Netanyahu and Gallant have frequently clashed over the war in Gaza against Hamas and whether or not to accept a cease-fire that would lead to the release of hostages held by the Palestinian militant group. Most recently, Gallant was the only member of the 10-person security cabinet to vote against a policy to maintain a military presence in Gaza’s so-called Philadelphi corridor. Netanyahu’s insistence that troops remain in the corridor, which runs along the Gaza-Egypt border, has angered Hamas and Cairo and proved a key sticking point in the truce talks.Gallant, a retired admiral, also crossed swords with Netanyahu last year over a divisive judicial overhaul plan championed by the prime minister. Noting that some anti-government protesters were threatening not to turn up for military reserves duties, Gallant publicly warned that Israel’s war—readiness was being sapped. Netanyahu announced Gallant’s dismissal and then walked back after a wave of street demonstrations. Gallant’s open channels with the Pentagon have helped the Israel-US alliance weather tensions between Netanyahu and US President Joe Biden, especially after the Gaza war erupted last October. Israeli polls have generally shown Gallant to be more popular than the legally embattled prime minister. The defense minister belongs to Netanyahu’s Likud party, while Saar, a veteran lawmaker, heads a party that has four members in the 120-seat parliament, or Knesset. If Saar joined the ruling coalition, that would boost Netanyahu’s political strength.
‘Political Machinations’
Benny Gantz, another opposition leader who quit the emergency government in June after clashing with Netanyahu, said the prime minister was prioritizing his political survival over the return of the hostages, defeating Hamas and dealing with Hezbollah militants based across Israel’s northern border in Lebanon. “He is busy with disgraceful political machinations and a replacement of the defense minister ahead of an intensive campaign in the north,” Gantz said on Monday on X, formerly known as Twitter. “This indicates poor judgment.”Saar, 58, held cabinet portfolios in previous Netanyahu governments. After a failed bid to unseat Netanyahu as Likud leader in 2019, Saar created the New Hope party and later allied himself with Gantz. Saar, together with Gantz, joined Netanyahu in the emergency government after the Oct. 7 attack by Hamas that triggered the Gaza war. In March, Saar split with Gantz and withdrew from the government, complaining of his exclusion from the narrow war cabinet that was handling day-to-day decision-making. Saar’s military experience is limited to a stint as an infantry conscript. He is a lawyer by training and former attorney-general’s aide.
--With assistance from Galit Altstein.

Hamas chief says Gaza militants ready for 'long war of attrition'
Agence France Presse/September 16, 2024
Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar said on Monday the Palestinian group was prepared for prolonged fighting against Israel, in a message to Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels nearly a year into the Gaza war. "We have prepared ourselves to fight a long war of attrition that will break the enemy's political will," the Hamas leader said, asserting that the militants in Gaza and allied Iran-aligned groups in Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen would defeat Israel. The message followed a rare missile attack on central Israel on Sunday claimed by the Houthis, who control the Yemeni capital Sanaa and much of the country's Red Sea coast.
The attack caused no casualties but sparked vows of retaliation from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Sinwar said in the message addressed to Houthi leader Abdul Malik al-Houthi: "I congratulate you on your success in sending your missiles deep into the enemy entity, bypassing all layers and defense and interception systems." The Houthis said they had "penetrated" Israel's air defenses, while Israel said the missile likely fragmented mid-air but was not destroyed. "Our combined efforts with you" and with groups in Lebanon and Iraq "will break this enemy and inflict defeat on it," Sinwar added. Since November the Houthis have targeted Israel and its perceived interests in stated solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza, launching dozens of missile and drone strikes that have disrupted global shipping through vital waterways off Yemen. The Houthis are fighting Israel as part of Iran's so-called "axis of resistance", which includes Hamas, Lebanon's Hezbollah and Several Iraqi Shiite Muslim groups. In July, a Houthi drone strike killed a civilian in Tel Aviv, at least 1,800 kilometers from Yemen. It prompted retaliatory strikes that caused significant damage and deaths at Yemen's rebel-controlled Hodeida port.

UNRWA chief: Gaza polio vaccination coverage has reached 90 percent
Arab News/September 16, 2024
GAZA: Polio vaccination coverage in Gaza has reached 90 percent, the head of the United Nations Palestinian refugee agency said on Monday, adding that the next step was to ensure hundreds of thousands of children got a second dose at the end of the month. The campaign to vaccinate some 640,000 children in Gaza under 10 years of age against polio, which began on Sept. 1, presented major challenges to UNRWA and its partners due to the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas. It followed confirmation by the World Health Organization (WHO) last month that a baby had been partially paralyzed by the type 2 polio virus, the first such case in the Palestinian territory in 25 years. More than 446,000 Palestinian children in central and south Gaza were vaccinated earlier this month before a campaign to vaccinate a final 200,000 children in north Gaza began on September 10 despite access restrictions, evacuation orders and shortages of fuel. The first round of the polio vaccination campaign in Gaza ended successfully, UNRWA’s chief Philippe Lazzarini said, adding that 90 percent of the enclave’s children had received a first dose. “Parties to the conflict have largely respected the different required “humanitarian pauses” showing that when there is a political will, assistance can be provided without disruption. Our next challenge is to provide children with their second dose at the end of September,” he wrote on X. Israel began its military campaign in Gaza on Oct. 7 last year after Hamas led a shock incursion into southern Israel, killing about 1,200 people and taking about 250 hostages, according to Israeli tallies.The resulting assault on Gaza has killed more than 41,000 Palestinians, according to the enclave’s health ministry, and reduced much of the territory to rubble.

Netanyahu threatens retaliation over Houthis targeting Israel in missile strike
Darryl Coote/United Press International/September 16, 2024
Sept. 16 (UPI) -- Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is threatening retaliation after the Houthi rebels of Yemen targeted central Israel with a missile attack on Sunday. "This morning, the Houthis launched a surface-to-surface missile from Yemen at our territory," the Israeli leader said following a government meeting."They should know that we exact a high price for any attempt to attack us."Yahya Sarea, spokesman for the Houthi military, said they had conducted a "specific military operation" with the use of "a new hypersonic ballistic missile." It had traveled more than 1,267 miles in under 11 1/2 minutes and "caused a state of fear and panic among the Zionists," he said. Though the Houthis claim the missile had reached its target, the Israel Defense Force said the projectile appeared to have "disintegrated in the air." Fragments of the missile fell into open areas, causing a fire near Kfar Daniel village, which is about 12 miles away from Ben Gurion International Airport. The IDF said several interceptor systems responded to the missile and "the result of which are under review." Israel has long been in a proxy conflict with Iran that exploded into a full-out war 11 months ago when Hamas, another Iran-backed militia, launched a bloody surprise attack, killing 1,200 Israelis and seeing another 251 kidnapped. The Houthis amid the war have repeatedly attacked Israel from its borders while attempting to enforce a military blockade of the Red Sea, claiming solidarity with the Palestinians of Gaza where the conflict is being mostly conducted. In July, Israel conducted an airstrike on the Yemen port city of Hodeidah, killing several people and injuring dozens more. The strike was in retaliation over a fatal drone strike on Tel Aviv. Netanyahu referenced the Hodeidah attack in his statement on Sunday, highlighting it as an example of what happens to those who target Israel."Whoever attacks us will not evade our strike. Hamas is already learning this through our determined action, which will bring about its destruction and the release of all of our hostages," he said.

Iran's president says direct talks with US possible if it abandons its hostility
Reuters/September 16/2024
Iran is open to direct US talks if Washington shows goodwill, aiming to revive the 2015 nuclear deal negotiations.
Iran could hold direct talks with the United States if Washington demonstrates "in practice" that it is not hostile to the Islamic Republic, President Masoud Pezeshkian said on Monday. Pezeshkian was responding to a question at a news conference in Tehran on whether Tehran would be open to direct talks with the US to revive a 2015 nuclear deal. Former US president Donald Trump reneged on that deal in 2018, arguing it was too generous to Tehran, and restored harsh US sanctions on Iran, prompting Tehran to gradually violate the agreement's nuclear limits. US response to statement
"We are not hostile towards the US, they should end their hostility towards us by showing their goodwill in practice," said Pezeshkian, adding: "We are brothers with the Americans as well."After taking office in January 2021, US President Joe Biden tried to negotiate a revival of the nuclear pact under which Iran had restricted its nuclear program in return for relief from US, European Union and UN sanctions. However, Tehran refused to directly negotiate with Washington and worked mainly through European or Arab intermediaries.

The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources on September 16-17/2024
Yemen's Al-Hodeida port still inactive, two months after IDF strike - expert
Ohad Merlin/Jerusalem Post/September 16/2024
Houthis use primitive, shut port of Rad Isa instead, which may be Israel’s next target, says expert on seafaring tracking.
Almost two months passed since July 19, when a Houthi explosive drone breached Israeli air defenses, murdering 50-year-old Yevgeny Ferder, and injuring eight others. Only one day later, the Israeli air force launched a retaliatory attack against the Houthi-controlled port of Hodeidah, dubbed “Operation Outstretched Arm.”Despite the Houthi promises for retaliation and targeting of the Tel Aviv area, no such retaliation came until Sunday, as a ballistic missile attack aimed at central Israel left no injuries. In this context, experts point out that, almost two months since the Israeli retaliatory attack in Hodeidah, the notable port is still essentially disabled. “After Israel’s attack, some claimed that the damage will take only a week to fix,” said Eran Efrat to The Jerusalem Post. Efrat is an entrepreneur and owner of several companies in the biomass sector who imports raw materials for the green energy industry, and who, as part of his job, tracks shipping routes and cargo ships. “Already back then I claimed that following a bombardment of a fuel terminal, assuming that pipelines and fuel tanks were damaged as well, a long time would be needed to fix everything,” he explained, adding that his companies also boast port terminals and establishing such infrastructure is not at all a simple task.According to Efrat, rebuilding this infrastructure is very hard, as oil and gas terminals are not an easy operation. “Ship tracking tools are as accurate as aircraft tracking, and they are free to use as well, except for some premium features. Every ship is registered, and its route is well documented, along with sailing times, documents, and any information that doesn’t qualify as a commercial secret.”
Efrat started monitoring the damage at Al-Hodeidah out of curiosity, and has now reached a level of an open source intelligence analyst, monitoring the port and making his conclusions available for the public. “A month after the retaliatory attack I saw that there were no listed tankers transporting fuel or liquefied gas in Al-Hodeidah, which I concluded from the list of ships scheduled to moor in the port,” added Efrat. “Additionally, the port has issued an official notice to ships calling them not to arrive. For me, this was a main indicator that they were not able to receive oil and liquid gas, both of which were part of the infrastructure of Al-Hodeidah. We also saw that cranes were damaged, and therefore the unloading was carried out more slowly using either the ships' cranes or mobile cranes, which are much smaller.
Economic impact of strikes
“The economic damage is immense,” continued Efrat. “I calculated according to the size of the tanks – they were able to store about 40-50 thousand tons. I found that they lose about 50 thousand tons of oil and liquid gas every 48 hours or so. This is based on how often the ships would dock and how large those containers were.”“I also checked tankers to check if there is an improvement in the unloading of containers according to ships that dock and leave. You can see the size of the ship and guess how long it takes to unload. If you leave after 24 hours or more, you know that the capacity is not high, especially when you compare it to a year ago, and you see that ships would enter and leave several times a day. According to my calculation, this means that the port is running at 30% of its original capacity,” he added, stressing that from 2-3 tanks of fuel or gas unloaded every day, the Houthis are now down to one tank per month.
Another month later, Efrat noticed that no new calls for tankers to dock at the port was issued for the next 30 days, at least until September 21. “This means two or three months that the port will be shut.”
Efrat claimed that instead of the Hodeidah port, the Houthis opted for the primitive and formally closed Ras Isa port. “Take a look at the tanker Lady Amira 1. This is a well-known tanker, which nowadays can’t dock in Hodeidah. I saw that it stopped in Hodeidah for one day, probably for a regular inspection of the goods by the Houthis. From there it continued to Ras Isa, a former export port that has three tanks for the use of oil and liquid gas. The port has no pier. The ships have to anchor several tens of meters in the sea, and there is a pipe that goes into the ship and the cargo is pumped back to the shore. This is how the goods were unloaded in a port that is defined as closed, but it is a small port so if in the past there was a tanker a day - today a tanker is emptied one every twenty days or a month.”
As for the Ras Isa port, Efrat stresses that its officially closed, and ships are not supposed to dock there. “There is no formal staff or nothing. In the photos you can see trucks waiting there, which is further proof that there is unloading activity going there. So, this is their auxiliary port that they’re using to unload oil and gas, albeit at a much slower pace. Following today’s attack, the Israeli government may be mulling the targeting of the auxiliary port in Ras Isa,” he concluded.

On Abraham Accords anniversary, Iran pushes Gulf ties - analysis
Seth J. Frantzman/Jerusalem Post/September 16/2024
The Houthis attacked Israel on September 15 on the anniversary of the Abraham Accords, and at 6:32am, symbolically almost the same time as the October 7 attack.
Iran has a new Deputy Foreign Minister for Political Affairs Majid Takht Ravanchi. He is pushing for closer ties with the Gulf countries, according to Iranian state media. This push comes on the four year anniversary of the Abraham Accords. The Accords were signed in Washington on September 15. They led to peace between Israel and Bahrain and Israel and the United Arab Emirates. In December of 2020, Morocco also signed a normalization agreement of ties with Israel.
Iran has always opposed the Abraham Accords. It especially does not want Israel’s ties with Bahrain and it is concerned about Israel increasing any kind of agreements in the Gulf. For instance Iran sought to derail any expansion of the Accords to Oman and it does not want Israel-Saudi normalization.
The October 7 attack by Hamas was likely part of Iran’s response. Iran backed the attack. Hamas leaders are hosted in Qatar. Doha did not join the Accords, despite being a close US non-NATO ally. It is worth recalling that back in 2017 Saudi Arabia led the UAE, Bahrain and other countries to cut ties with Doha. Although there was reconciliation, it's possible that Doha was pleased to get back at the other Gulf states for the 2017 crisis.
Therefore, Hamas can be seen as a tool of a variety of enemies of normalization. For instance, Ankara withdraw its ambassador to the US and Israel over the US decision to move the embassy to Jerusalem in 2018. Ankara also tried to derail the Accords. It is in this context that one must understand Iran’s current outreach to the Gulf. Iran’s new President Masoud Pezeshkian “is eager to continuously interact and consult with the eight Arab countries bordering the Persian Gulf,” Iran’s IRNA reports. According to IRNA, “Takht Ravanchi made the comments in a joint meeting with the heads of the representatives of the Persian Gulf countries in Tehran on Sunday.”
Sunday, September 15 was the four year anniversary of the Abraham Accords. Iran is using this symbolic date to try to create its own initiative in the Gulf and reduce Israel’s emerging ties with these countries. Tehran wants Israel isolated and at war in a long war of attrition with Hamas in Gaza, in order to harm Israel’s ties in the region. This is why Iran is mobilizing so many proxies against Israel. The Houthis attacked Israel on September 15 on the anniversary of the Abraham Accords. They attacked at 6:32am, symbolically almost the same time as the October 7 attack.
Iran's symbolic timing
Iran believes in symbols and timing. Iran worked to reconcile with Saudi Arabia, in a deal brokered by China, in order to use reconciliation against possible Israel ties. Iran also wanted the Houthis free to attack Israel and it has used Saudi ties to guarantee that. Saudi Arabia is not pleased with the Houthis being put on steroids by Iran. But Riyadh is not ready yet to derail reconciliation. Iran is also reaching around behind Saudi to Cairo to increase ties. Along with Turkey, Iran hopes the Arab League will also work to condemn Israel and isolate Jerusalem.
Iran’s president used his first trip abroad to go to Iraq. Iraq is keen to help normalize Syria-Turkey ties and Baghdad played a key role in normalizing Iran-Saudi ties. Therefore, the Iranian president sees Iraq as a gateway to the Gulf. Iran already has close ties in the Gulf with Qatar and Oman. Kuwait, which suffered in the Iran-Iraq role in the 1980s is keen to stay out of any crisis this time. Kuwait is also very hostile to Israel. As such Iran already has inroads in Kuwait, Oman and Qatar. Iran also works with the Houthis in Yemen.
“The geographical proximity, bonds and commonalities between the eight Persian Gulf countries provide a suitable ground for dialogue and consultation, and it is necessary for them to have continuous cooperation and coordination on issues of interest,” the Deputy Foreign Minister for Political Affairs Majid Takht Ravanchi indicated, according to IRNA. “By enumerating some common issues between the Persian Gulf littoral states such as economic cooperation, transit, environment, shipping, combating drug trafficking, coast guard, Takht Ravanchi said all these countries have the same views on these issues, and therefore, need constructive dialogue and consultations,” the report noted.
Meanwhile, Iran’s president’s trip to Iraq opened a new “chapter,” IRNA said in a separate report. Iran also wants to work on ties with Europe and to get around US sanctions. Iran’s foreign minister also talked up support for “resistance” against Israel in light of the Iraq trip. Iranian militias operate in Iraq and use Iraq to threaten Israel. Iranian militias also operate in Syria.“ A US military base in Kharab al-Jeer, located in the northern suburbs of the eastern Syria, has reportedly come under rocket attacks. The Lebanese TV network Al-Mayadeen on Sunday night citing sources said that several rockets were fired at the American military base in Syria’s Al-Hasakah Governorate,” IRNA reported on September 16. It is likely that Iran will increase threats to the US in Iraq and Syria as part of its wider regional game plan.
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-820312

The Houthi missile attack is Iran’s latest move - analysis
Seth J. Frantzman/Jerusalem Post/September 16/2024
It’s worth thinking of the attack in light of Iran’s overall war against Israel in the region using its proxies rather than seeing it in a purely Houthi-centric context.
The Houthi missile attack on Israel on Sunday was an important move for the Iranian regime. The attack was part of Iran’s overall war against Israel in the region, using its proxies, and not simply in a Houthi-centric context. The group claimed to use a “hypersonic” missile, a claim that dovetails with Iran’s claims of developing a hypersonic missile last year. This is very much part of the Iranian multi-front war plan against Israel, a war launched by Hamas on October 7, 2023. Iranian state media heralded the Houthi attack in an article on IRNA on Monday. It quoted Yemeni Foreign Minister Shaya Mohsen Al-Zindani as saying that “the country’s armed forces targeted the heart of Israel with missiles to send a message to the Zionist regime that it is not safe.” The Houthis themselves put out a statement to pro-Iranian Al-Mayadeen media on Sunday evening, noting that their “armed forces are developing their capabilities following the confrontation with the Saudi coalition and that they have been able to expand their capabilities in various fields.”Their claim is like this: Years of war against Saudi Arabia, between 2015 and 2022, helped the Houthis galvanize their abilities. The group was backed by Iran in the war against Saudi Arabia and had tried to capture Aden in Yemen in 2015, on the brink of taking over a swath of the country. The Saudis led a number of Arab countries to intervene in Yemen to back the government, which was on the ropes. The Houthis held on and got support from Iran, and soon, they were able to attack Riyadh with ballistic missiles.
A learning curve
The Houthis took the knowledge they gained from that war and blended it with Iranian support, and now they are attacking Israel. The war with Saudi Arabia was a prototype curve for the Houthis and Iran. China brokered the Saudi-Iran reconciliation between 2022 and 2023, which laid the groundwork for the Houthis to attack Israel in support of Hamas. Now, Iran is likely using the Houthis to test weapon systems against Israel, such as ballistic missiles. The Houthis are Iran’s test bed, a kind of terrorism garage in which Tehran tries out different weapons and tinkers with them. For example, Iran exported its Shahed drones to the Houthis in 2020-2021 before exporting them to Russia for use against Ukraine in 2022. The Houthis are excited about their missile attack on Israel, bragging about it in the report to Al-Mayadeen, which also appeared on IRNA, that “Yemeni missiles target and hit moving sea targets… [with the attack on Israel, here] is another important weapon that will be used at the right time.”
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-820304

Iranian Equivocations and the New Cold War
Charles Chartouni/This Is Beirut/September 16/2024
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2024/09/134553/
The politics of intentional prevarication are part of the repertoire of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The simulation, the doublespeak, and the outright dissembling are essential keys to understanding the subtexts of its political strategizing. Observers have difficulty pinpointing the true motivations and sifting through the multilayered agendas.
However, the political gyrations and the state of zero gravity are based on the mental restrictions mandated by “Taqiyya” (concealment of one’s intentions) and the state of pervasive insecurity of the Islamic regime that was never able to address its endemic legitimacy crisis throughout 45 years of revolutionary rhetoric and stifling repression. The overlapping dynamics between the endogenous instability, the militarization of security and imperial politics are central to coming to terms with the new Cold War conflicts highlighted by the Iranian regime and its ilk.
The Iranian regime partakes of the systemic traits that characterize the rising totalitarian alliance structured around China, Russia, and its junior partners recruited erratically among rogue states (North Korea, Venezuela, Nicaragua, etc.) and fake illiberal democratures (Islamist Turkey) experiencing an endemic crisis of legitimacy caused by the incremental liberalization, the strengthening of civil society platforms and the dissemination of democratic aspirations. These dictatorships are united around a set of common rules of governance: internal repression, dismantling of democratic institutions, rigged elections, international and regional politics of destabilization, militarization of security issues and dismissal of diplomatic arbitrations. Nonetheless, their Achilles heel lies at the crossroads between their structural political impairments, their hazardous imperial ventures, their economic shortcomings and entanglements and the rickety foundations of their projected illiberal international order. The big narratives are flawed and pointless, the overriding destabilization politics are erratic and non-performing, and the international power balances are quite asymmetrical and unable to uphold the attempted power projections (Ukraine, Gaza, South Lebanon).
The Iranian regime under the presidency of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad joined ventures with Hugo Chavez to create an international counter-order made up of political wastelands, organized criminality and ideological humbug recycling the old Cold War trash. The ideological throw-up is residual, and what’s left is organized criminality, fierce political repression and totalitarian regimentation in both countries, where the respective regimes are loathed. Oppositions are brutally squashed, organized criminality is well entrenched and in political control and trying to tie itself to an inchoative counter-political order unable to emerge and take shape.
The military cooperation between Iran and Russia, while complicating the military equation in Ukraine, undermines the chances of political cooperation with the US in the Middle East to deal with the cumulative imbroglios of the Gaza war and its sequels. This political trail is self-defeating by definition, since it proceeds through irreconcilable contradictions whose sole function is to procrastinate and set a process of continuous deferments until the course of military nuclearization is completed. Russia and Iran have found their common platform: sanctuarize their imperial politics, smother internal oppositions and operate destabilization politics in a discretionary manner. There is no need to find solutions for the war in Gaza, put Syria on the road of negotiated political settlement and reconstruction, or allow Lebanon to overhaul its state matrix intentionally subverted in the three aforementioned cases.
The purported obstructionism of Yahya Sinwar is part of the procrastination politics instrumented indefinitely by the Iranian regime. The eventual success of the truce depends on the unconditional liberation of the hostages, the shuttering of the extraterritorialities piloted by Iran in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria, the internationalization of Gaza Strip governance, the rehabilitation of Lebanese sovereignty and the enforcement of international law in South Lebanon, the Bekaa area and North-East Syria. Reverting to October 7, 2023, is a political oxymoron that can never serve as a platform for working diplomacy. As long as the Iranian regime is in control of Palestinian politics, there is no chance for a diplomatic breakthrough. Iranian diplomacy is regulated by ideological strictures, imperial objectives and the vested interests of a clerical-military conglomerate that has no other compass but its survival, safeguarding its maneuverability and its colonies.The same equation holds in Lebanon’s case. The destruction of Lebanese statehood is no coincidence, it’s a major springboard in the Iranian playbook of political subversion in the Middle East. The conditionalities set by Hezbollah are, by definition, antithetical to Lebanese sovereignty, to effective statehood, and to the ability of Lebanon to negotiate independently the conditions of a working truce based on the implementation of international resolutions (1949, 1701, 1559, 1680), the demilitarization of the borders and the dissolution of the illegal paramilitary formations, be they Lebanese (Hezbollah and its ancillaries) or Palestinian (Hamas, PLO, and rivals) and whichever grafted terrorist organizations. Iran and its associates are operating on the interfaces between destabilization politics and diplomatic meandering. Without initiating a steady and cumulative course of political disentanglement, this whole diplomatic jockeying is a mere bluff. We have reached a watershed whereby diplomacy has to put an end to the empty gesticulations and come up with tangible results in terms of truce, hostage vs. prisoners swap, agreement on the future of Gaza’s governance, the prospects of a peace agreement and the internationalization of security issues on the Lebanese and Syrian borders with Israel. Otherwise, we are on the road to major war upheavals, geopolitical realignments and a new power relationship configuration.

Instead of focusing on unachievable goals, Israel should redefine the conflict - opinion
MARK LAVIE/THE MEDIA LINE/September 126/2024
Israel can pivot its strategy in Gaza by redefining its goals and shifting its focus to long-term regional challenges.
What can you do if your war goals are unattainable? Redefine them away.
Israel’s stated goals—eliminating Hamas as a threat and winning the return of all the hostages Hamas is holding—are not only incompatible, they simply can’t be achieved.
Hamas still has some rockets to fire at Israel, but not many. Evidence of this is the single rocket that was fired at the central Israeli city of Rishon Lezion last month. It fell harmlessly in an open area. Contrast that to the salvos of dozens of rockets Hamas fired toward Israel’s heavily populated center at the beginning of the conflict. So, after 11 months of fighting, Israel has degraded Hamas to a fraction of its former terror capabilities. The challenge is to keep them there. That requires a change in tactics, moving away from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s “total victory” pledge.
The second goal, securing freedom for the hostages through military operations and pressure, is unrealistic. Hamas has made it clear it won’t allow the Israeli military to rescue the remaining hostages. That’s the lesson from the brutal murder of six hostages last month, as Israeli soldiers closed in on them in a Gaza tunnel 20 meters underground. Few hostages have been rescued alive. Nearly 100 were freed in a cease-fire deal months ago. Hamas is still holding about 90, some of them probably alive—but the clock is ticking.
So, how does Israel get the maximum out of this unfavorable situation? Instead of doubling down on its unachievable goals, it can redefine the conflict. Instead of calling it the “Gaza War,” Israel should look upon it as a “Gaza battle.” There have been many, and there will be more. That’s the reality of the 21 st century—no one wins wars anymore. Not a single war has ended with total surrender since World War II.
Not Korea, not Vietnam. The closest, ironically, were Israel’s two wars against Arab forces in 1967 and 1973—but those, too, ended with negotiated cease-fires, not unconditional surrender.
Kissinger's approach
It was legendary American diplomat Henry Kissinger who invented the tool of redefining a conflict to end it. Faced with an unwinnable quagmire in Vietnam, growing opposition at home, and ever-increasing casualties among American forces, Kissinger adopted a policy of “declare victory and get out.” He negotiated a flimsy cease-fire with North Vietnam in 1973 to end the war, and the US pulled its troops out. It didn’t fool anyone, except possibly the Nobel Peace Prize committee, which awarded its accolades to Kissinger and North Vietnamese Foreign Minister Le Duc Tho. As expected, despite the accord, North Vietnamese troops surged into the South. Just over a year after the Nobel Prize announcement, the North Vietnamese took over South Vietnam and even renamed its capital after the legendary leader of the North, Ho Chi Minh.
By then, the American troops were long gone.
No two historical events are identical, and Vietnam and Gaza are not even similar. But the Kissinger principle would work for Gaza. If Israel declares the current conflict a “battle,” and behaves as if it were over, Israel can withdraw its forces from Gaza, get as many hostages as it can—hopefully with world pressure—and live to fight another day. The “Kissinger method” could help correct some of Israel's many mistakes over the past 11 months.
After dedicating huge forces to a lengthy Gaza war with diminishing returns, Israel could redeploy its soldiers to more dangerous fronts like Lebanon, and, increasingly, the West Bank.
Israel could reestablish a working relationship with Egypt to control the vital Egypt-Gaza border, known as the Philadelphi Corridor, where Hamas has been smuggling weapons through tunnels and bribing Egyptian border guards to allow in massive amounts of contraband, including a tunneling machine big enough to dig a subway. Israel has infuriated Egypt by demanding the right to post Israeli soldiers on the Gaza-Egypt border. It would be more productive and effective to work with Egypt. The Egyptians have already blocked many of the Hamas tunnels on their side, and it’s known that Egypt’s president despises Hamas.
Israel could develop an alliance that is just waiting to join forces to combat the real threat in this region—Iran. It’s time to scrap the notion that Israel must go it alone against a hostile world. It can’t, and it shouldn’t. Israel should even resist calls from armchair experts and cynical “friendly” politicians to attack Iran or attack the Houthis in Yemen by itself. These are world problems, not Israeli problems, and Israel should not be expected to do the world’s dirty work and absorb the consequences alone.
Israel could work to restore some unity among the fractured, wounded, and hate-damaged Israeli public. That, however, would require a clean sweep of the current leadership, both political and military. It should be obvious that the leaders responsible for building up Hamas, ignoring intelligence reports, and botching the response to the Hamas pogrom on Oct. 7, 2023, cannot remain in power.
Even if it appears as if Israel has lost this battle, it’s not the end of the world. Despite Israeli leaders throwing around the word “existential,” the Gaza conflict does not threaten Israel’s existence. Golda Meir might have been right in the 1970s when she said that if the Arabs lose a war, they just lose a war—but if Israel loses a war, it ceases to exist—but this isn’t the 1970s. Israel needs to grow up, accept reality, and recognize the rules of the 21st century.
That might mean losing a battle here and there.
***Mark Lavie has been covering the Middle East for major news outlets since 1972. His second book, Why Are We Still Afraid?, which follows his five-decade career and comes to a surprising conclusion, is available on Amazon.

A Muslim Aliyah Paralleled the Jewish Aliyah: Part II, Since 1948
Daniel Pipes/Middle East Forum/September 16/2024
https://www.meforum.org/middle-east-quarterly/a-muslim-aliyah-paralleled-the-jewish-aliyah-part-ii-since-to-1948
Editor’s note: The following analysis makes up the second half of a two-part study. The first part, “A Muslim Aliyah Paralleled the Jewish Aliyah: Part I, until 1948,” appeared in the Summer 2024 issue of the Middle East Quarterly.
“When I saw the Israeli soldiers, I nearly fainted from happiness. I fell on the floor and kissed the earth before their feet. It was as if I was born all over again…I saw a country that cared about its citizens, something that would not happen to such an extent even in Western cultures like the United States.” – Yusuf
No, the exuberant statement above was spoken not by a Jew making aliyah (lit. going up; fig. immigration to the Land of Israel) but by an Egyptian journalist and poet, Nabih Sirhan, who changed his name in Israel to Yusuf Samir to hide his identity. Samir likely has the distinction of being the only Muslim twice to flee for his life to Israel. He did so first in 1968 when, after criticizing Egyptian media inaccuracies, he fled the country and, via Libya and Greece, found refuge in Israel, working at Israel Radio’s Arabic service, eventually becoming a citizen.
The second time took place in 2001, when the Palestinian Authority (PA) seized him and held him for seven weeks as a suspected Israeli “collaborator.” Samir reported that he “was beaten non-stop.” On release from the PA’s tender mercies, he not only spoke of his own deep feeling for the Jewish state (“I place all my confidence in this small country, which I love from the bottom of my heart”), but also spoke publicly about Israel’s virtues (calling it “a land of love”) and the Palestinians’ deficiencies: “The Palestinians are animals. They are less than human. They are savage beasts. … the Palestinians do not love. They hate. They should be destroyed.”
Samir’s double flight to Israel may be unique but it fits into a larger pattern, that of Muslims moving to what the Koran calls the Holy Land (al-Ard al-Muqaddasa). I call this Muslim aliyah. Neither celebrated nor condemned, individual in nature rather than organized, driven by practical goals rather than by idealism, and smaller than its Jewish counterpart, it is obscure, routine, important, and embarrassing. Obscure, because not part of a formal movement, but representing individual initiative. Routine because not rebuilding an ancient state but a move for personal reasons. Important because of its demographic implications. Embarrassing because it contradicts the Palestinian narrative of Muslim hostility toward the Jewish state.
That immigration began with the birth of Israel and continues to the present: in the first half of 2024, Israeli security sources report, around 4,000 people illegally entered the Jewish state just through its border with Jordan. Among other countries, these migrants came from Jordan, Sudan, Turkey, and Uzbekistan. However, the immigration is best understood divided into two: Palestinian and other Muslims, where Palestinian is defined as anyone who identifies as such, with the exception of Arabic-speakers with Israeli citizenship (who by definition cannot make aliyah).
Palestinians
An estimated 600,000 people, predominantly Muslims, fled the newborn State of Israel during its war of independence. A substantial number soon then tried to return to it and some succeeded. Hillel Cohen of the Hebrew University estimates that “More than twenty thousand Arab refugee-infiltrators managed to cross into Israel during its first five years of existence. They hid in Arab settlements and the state granted them Israeli citizenship. This augmented the country’s Arab population by about 15 percent.” He also notes that “thousands [of them] were killed by the Israeli army.”
Muslim immigration began with the birth of Israel and continues to the present.
After this first wave, closed borders kept down the number of Muslim immigrants. Only with the Six-Day War of 1967 did Israel’s conquests bring many Muslims under Jerusalem’s control. Other than small populations in Sinai and the Golan Heights, all the conquered peoples―West Bankers, Gazans, and eastern Jerusalemites―considered themselves Palestinian. Since 1967, many of them have, legally or illegally, voted with their feet and moved to Israel. With the exception of a few with malign intentions, they did so mainly to take advantage of Israel’s superior economy (higher pay, greater work opportunities), its better services (education, health care, health insurance, pension, law enforcement, water, sewage, trash), and its democracy (the rule of law, freedom of expression).
Palestinians making aliyah fall into a number of distinct categories, including eastern Jerusalemites, husbands and wives, workers, PLO fighters, the beneficiaries of good-will gestures, homosexuals, informants, criminals, and political murderers.
Eastern Jerusalemites: The residents of eastern Jerusalem found themselves annexed to Israel in 1967 and offered citizenship. Choosing in overwhelming numbers to reject that offer, they and their descendants live as permanent residents of Israel. Now numbering about 350,000, they have the right to live anywhere in Jerusalem or in Israel. The non-citizens among them―our concern here―tend to move from eastern Jerusalem to majority Jewish areas of Jerusalem or to pre-1967 Israel for three main reasons.
Some wish to flee the city’s tensions, high prices, and (in its remoter areas) paucity of city services. They usually move to predominantly Arab areas of Israel (Jaffa, Haifa, Umm al-Fahm, Nazareth, Ramla, Lod, Abu Ghosh, Beit Naquba), but also to some predominantly Jewish ones, whether in other parts of Jerusalem (French Hill, Neve Yaakov, Pisgat Zeev) or in other cities (Tel Aviv, Eilat).
Others move in reaction to the separation fence that went up between Israel and the West Bank in 2004-05, fearing exclusion from Israel. As the Jerusalem Post notes, “Eager to maintain their freedom of movement … tens of thousands of Jerusalem Arabs moved into more central east Jerusalem neighborhoods keeping them on the Israeli side of the barrier.” Or they merely seek convenient access to Israel. Jalah Hussein, an electrical engineer, explains: “If I want to travel to work, or get the kids to school or a medical clinic, it is very difficult,” with crossing times lasting from minutes to hours. Thus did a separation fence, ironically, spur Muslim aliyah.
Finally, they worry about losing their Israeli identity cards were Jerusalem divided into Israeli and Palestinian parts, and they lived in PA territory. That would mean losing access to the many advantages conferred by their Jerusalem residency and the resulting blue Israeli ID card. When Jerusalem’s mayor in 2011 proposed placing about 60,000 eastern Jerusalemites in the Kafr Aqab, Shuafat, Semiramis, Zughayer, and Atarot neighborhoods under PA rule, the response was predictable: outrage, followed by plans to move into Israel. The city councilor for eastern Jerusalem argued, in a reporter’s paraphrase, that “any change in Jerusalem’s borders would produce a mass immigration of Israeli residents living east of the fence back into Jerusalem in order to keep their residency and rights.” A 2011 survey of eastern Jerusalemites conducted by David Pollock of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy asked if the city were divided into Israeli and Palestinian parts, would they move “to be a citizen of whichever side they preferred”? Very few would move to the PA, but 40 percent said they would probably or definitely move in order to live under Israeli rather than Palestinian rule. That number subsequently went down to 25 percent in 2023.
Husbands and Wives: Under a family reunification program in place from 1967 until mid-2003, Israel allowed West Bankers and Gazans married to Israeli citizens―almost all Arab―to enter Israel and acquire permanent residency. Estimates of the total number of spouses permitted to live in Israel vary greatly but are uniformly high for a small country: at least 100,000 (Meron Rapaport), 130,000 in the years 1993-2003 (Carolyn Glick), more than 137,000 (a Jerusalem Post editorial), more than 200,000 in 1993-2003 (another Jerusalem Post editorial), and 250,000 in 1963-2021 (Kohelet Forum).
A seemingly minor humanitarian gesture turned into a back-door ideological Palestinian right of return.
Whatever the number, Israeli authorities eventually noticed that a seemingly minor humanitarian gesture had turned into a back-door ideological Palestinian “right of return.” One indication of its political nature: requests for Israeli citizenship overwhelmingly came from West Bank or Gazan husbands joining Israeli wives, a stark contrast to the normal patrilocal Palestinian practice of wives moving to their husbands.
This awareness led to the passage in 2003 of the “Citizenship and Entry into Israel Law” that blocked Palestinians who marry Israelis from entering the country. Children of such unions were allowed to live in Israel until they reached 12 years of age, when they had to leave the country. Only the interior minister could make exceptions, granting citizenship to individuals who “identify with Israel,” who make economic or security contributions, or for visits with medical or employment purposes. The 2003 law, in other words, permitted Israel to hold out family reunification as a reward, not a right.
Wives also make aliya, if more rarely. Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh’s three sisters―Kholidia, Laila, and Sabah―married Israeli Muslim men and moved in the 1970s from Gaza to Tel Sheva, a mainly Bedouin town in Israel. “In a small community like ours there were not enough women to go round, so some of the men would go and look for wives elsewhere,” explained a relative. Compounding the irony, some of their children have served in the Israeli army. The wife of Ahmed Tibi, a former Israeli Arab advisor to Yasir Arafat and a member of the Israeli parliament since 1999, moved to Israel and received citizenship. Mona, the daughter of Ahmed Qurei, a top PLO negotiator, received a rare Israeli identification card on marrying a Jerusalem Arab after her father met with the Israel’s Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni―likely a special favor intended to curry favor with him.
Workers: The large disparity in work conditions and remuneration between the West Bank and Gaza on the one hand and Israel on the other makes the latter an extremely attractive destination for everyone from day laborers to permanent immigrants and unskilled laborers to professionals. The numbers of workers permitted into Israel depends in part on economic factors and in part on security ones, and therefore it has fluctuated considerably. In a revealing 2024 statement, the secretary-general of the Palestine Labor Union, Shaher Sa‘ad, estimated that more than 120,000 Palestinians possess Israeli work permits―in addition to about 45,000 illegals. He also revealed that the latter spend $400 for a ladder to climb over the security fence and about about $600 to be smuggled in by car.
PLO Fighters: In 1970, more than two hundred PLO fighters escaped Jordanian forces by crossing into the West Bank, where they surrendered to the Israelis. In 1982, another group fled the PLO’s rule in Lebanon by going to Israel. In 2007, the Fatah vs. Hamas fighting in Gaza prompted as many as one thousand Fatah fighters to seek refuge in Israel; one of them, waiting at the border with his wife and children, explained to a reporter, “We cannot live in Gaza. Even if I have to sleep here for a year, I will.” In 2008, 188 Fatah troops received permission, after laying down their arms, to flee to Israel where they were handcuffed and strip-searched, then allowed in on a humanitarian basis. But their leader, PA head Mahmoud Abbas, ordered them returned to Gaza, despite the danger, to send a signal of defiance by maintaining a presence in Gaza. One of those troops complained, “Hamas will kill us immediately. It will be a death verdict for us if we go back there.”
Beneficiaries of Good-Will Gestures: To strengthen the PA’s Abbas, Israel at times permits Palestinians to move to the West Bank or allows illegal migrants to gain permanent residency. An estimated 41 Palestinians from Iraq (out of a total population thought to be about 34,000) did so in 2007, then the numbers jumped: 4,495 in 2008 and 5,000 in 2021. Sometimes, Palestinians are allowed into Israel proper: 3,458 in 2009 and 442 in 2021.
Rumors swirled in 2008 that Prime Minister Ehud Olmert offered to take in 2,000 Palestinians a year for ten years on a basis of family unification, should all the other issues be resolved with the PA, as compensation for the PA foregoing a “right of return” to Israel. Olmert’s office denied this report, but Abbas later confirmed it. Homosexuals: Israel allows a certain number of homosexuals to stay in the country. Thus, a 33-year-old West Banker won temporary residence in Israel in 2008 to join his male lover in Tel Aviv. According to Rita Petrenko, founder of Albait Almukhtalef, an Israeli non-profit helping Arab homosexuals, about 90 individuals from the West Bank had taken refuge in Israel by 2022 due to persecution at home. Due to a change that year in Israeli law, they now may legally work in the country. At the same time, a complex of regulations, such as having to renew temporary visas monthly, keeps them from settling.
Informants: Israeli intelligence depends on a wide network of informants, many of them Bedouin; when exposed or in danger of exposure, it may move them to Israel. In one large-scale operation, as Israeli forces withdrew from Gaza in 2005, they evacuated about 250 agents from Dahaniya village, promising them compensation and help with resettlement. The agents’ spokesman, Abed Shtawi, talked hopefully of his “future as a Bedouin and an Israeli citizen.” In 2008, a number of Gazans living in the Israeli town of Sderot explained what made them switch sides and their appreciation of the Jewish state.
“I’m very happy that I helped the state of Israel. Here everything is straightforward, not like with the Arabs. Here there is a law and there are rights.”
“When the Israelis ruled Gaza people lived like kings.”
“The only choice is an Israeli military occupation to clean the area [Gaza] of weapons.”
Criminals: Some shady Palestinians take extraordinary steps to access Israel. Israel’s police in July 2001 accused a Palestinian businessman with a criminal record of fictitiously marrying a new Russian immigrant to obtain Israeli citizenship. It also recommended charging Salah Tarif, a Druze government minister (for Arab affairs) in the Labor government, with “facilitating a bribe and breach of trust” in exchange for legalizing the man’s status.
Political Murderers: In April 2002, a Palestinian with an Israeli identity card carried out a suicide bombing, killing 14, at a Haifa restaurant; he could pass through military roadblocks separating Israel from the West Bank by carrying an Israeli identity card and driving a car with Israeli license plates―both issued because his mother was an Israeli Arab. This was the worst but hardly the first such atrocity; already, 87 Israelis had been killed in 19 attacks that in one way or another involved West Bankers or Gazans outfitted with Israeli identity cards who had the run of the country. Yuval Diskin, head of the Shin Bet, reported in 2005 that of 225 Arabs involved in terror, 25 (or 11 percent) were Palestinians who had moved to Israel on the basis of family reunification.
In conclusion, those Palestinians who vote with their feet show an appreciation for Israel that more than balances the horrid things said about it by their chieftains, even when those chieftains are their brother.
Others
Egyptians: In 2009, Egyptian officials estimated that about 20,000 Egyptian citizens had gone to work in Israel and married Israelis, mainly Muslim women. In 2017, an Egyptian community leader in Israel told Haisam Hassanein of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy that they numbered 3,000 to 7,000 persons, mostly spouses of Arab Israelis. Most of them are legal,
but illegal migrants have also entered the country, usually to make money. Hassanein finds that most Egyptians prefer not to obtain Israeli citizenship, “as this would make their return to Egypt impossible and endanger their Egyptian citizenship.” That same year, the community founded a non-profit to represent its interests. Majed El Shafie recounts a somewhat implausible James-Bond-style passage to Israel via the Red Sea.
Notable Egyptian-Israelis include the afore-mentioned Yusuf Samir; his Israeli-born daughter Chaya, one of the first Muslim women to enlist in the Israel Defense Forces and later a well-known singer; Naglaa Suleiman, who won the Arab Miss Israel contest in 2009; and Noha Hashad, a professor of nuclear science in Egypt who escaped after her pro-Israel views landed her in prison and tortured. Majed El Shafie, born to a prominent Muslim family, converted to Christianity at 18 while in law school and wrote a book about the difference between Islam and Christianity. Also imprisoned and tortured, he escaped by making his way to Taba near the Israeli city of Eilat. El Shafie recounts a somewhat implausible James-Bond-style passage to Israel via the Red Sea:
It is patrolled by both Egyptian and Israeli boats, and either of them will shoot you. But at about 5:30 one day I stole a jet ski and I crossed the border on a jet ski. There is only one way you can get away with doing that, and that’s by coming between the two boats―that way they won’t shoot because they don’t want to shoot each other. That’s how I was able to do it. I got to Eilat and ran into the Princess Hotel where I asked for asylum.
Ibrahim Shahin, a Jerusalem-born Muslim, fled to Egypt following the 1948 war with Israel, married Inshirah, an Egyptian, lived in El-Arish, and had three sons―Nabil, Muhammad, and Adel. After Israel’s capture of El-Arish in 1967, the entire family spied on Egypt for Israel. Caught in 1974, Ibrahim was executed, but Inshirah was eventually pardoned and moved to Israel with her sons, where they all converted to Judaism and adopted Hebrew names. “I love being Jewish, the whole family is Jewish,” says Nabil, now Yossi Ben-David. His son, Daniel, concurs: “I am Israeli and Jewish and nothing will change that.”The six hundred members of the Azzama, a Bedouin tribe, differed greatly from these elite individuals. The tribe fled Egypt in 1999 to escape a feud with another tribe and ill-treatment by the Egyptian police. Despite an Egyptian official’s efforts to convince them to return to Egypt, they sought residential rights in the Jewish state. Similarly, hundreds of Bedouin from the Sinai peninsula gathered in 2007 at Egypt’s border with Israel, asking for refuge in Israel on the grounds that Egyptian authorities had mistreated their community.
Africans: I covered this topic in detail in a separate article, “Muslim Africans’ Harrowing Journey to Israel” (Middle East Quarterly, Summer 2023). To summarize: They nearly all reached the Jewish state by land via Egypt during the years 2006-12, often enduring a horrible experience at the hands of either Egypt’s authorities, the tribes, or Hamas, leaving many immigrants traumatized, brutalized, or murdered. The total number of illegal migrants to Israel from sub-Saharan Africa is estimated at 55,000, with about 25,000 now in the country.
Individuals and Families: Israel faced a curious invasion in March 2001. A family of sixteen Iraqi Kurds, including four children, after living in Beirut for three years without decent work, hired a taxi to take them to the border with Israel. Once there, this group of unarmed Muslims cut through the wire fence separating the two countries and walked into Israel waving a homemade Israeli flag. The family asked for asylum, was refused, and threatened mass suicide. Israelis publicly fretted about the morality of expelling them, but the authorities forced them across the Lebanese border a day later, leaving the Kurds stuck in a no-man’s-land, unable to enter Israel and fearful of returning to Lebanon. Eventually, the story ended happily with their winning asylum in Sweden.
This incident might appear to be eccentric, but it is not, for Iraqi Kurds have often tried to enter Israel. A party of forty-two tried this in early August 2001, ten more then tried later in the same month, and the pattern has often repeated itself since.
A year after the Israeli retreat from Lebanon in 2000, four South Lebanese men crossed into Israel, requesting political asylum; turned down, they returned to Lebanese territory―despite three of them having previously been jailed in Lebanon for “collaboration with the Israelis.” With time, it became routine to hear the IDF spokesperson make announcements such as, “Yesterday afternoon (August 24, 2003), an IDF force arrested a Lebanese citizen crossing the international border into Israel. An inquiry carried out by security forces concluded that his intentions were not terror related.” He was returned to Lebanon. At certain times, for instance mid-2006, the Israeli border guards apprehended about 600 illegal migrants a day.
The case of Ibrahim Yassin, a Shiite who became Rabbi Avraham Sinai, deserves special mention. His connection to Israel began in 1983 when Yassin, 19, was a cattle farmer in south Lebanon. As his wife went into labor, an IDF officer, Tzachi Bareket, took risks to help her delivery and subsequent recuperation. Grateful, Yassin in turn provided the Israelis with occasional information on the PLO―until Hezbollah suspected him, arrested him, tortured him, and murdered his child. For vengeance, Yassin joined Hezbollah and became a major intelligence asset for Israel, finally fleeing to the Jewish state in 1997, where he converted to Judaism and became a Haredi rabbi living in Safed. His son Amos went on to be a decorated soldier in the Golani Brigade’s Battalion 51. Asked about Israel and Lebanon, Avraham replied, “Here it’s heaven, there it’s hell.”
His case fits a pattern. “About 1,000 times a year,” estimates Seth Farber, the director of an organization that assists people to navigate the bureaucracy of Jewish life in Israel, illegal migrants seek to stay in Israel by converting to Judaism. They must prove their sincerity by being interrogated by a committee of government authorities―Interior Ministry lawyers, Prime Minister’s Office representatives, and Conversion Authority rabbis. The committee decides whether the applicant genuinely intends to convert or is gaming the system to stay in the country.
Luckier illegals get jailed in an Israeli prison devoted specifically to such immigrants. Muhammad Mashah, a Jordanian journalist who fled to Israel because he criticized both Jordan’s king and Palestinian violence, sought political asylum in Israel and declared himself almost happy in an Israeli jail: “I just want to live like a human being.”
Khudia Raisi walked to Israel from his native Iran through all of Turkey, Syria, and Lebanon because of his “problems with the regime.” One Iranian dissident wrote that “Israel is my dream,” and in 2020, during the height of the pandemic, Israel’s Foreign Ministry reported a dramatic increase in queries about Israel and in requests about moving to Israel. Indeed, the Jewish state remains a distant aspiration for many Iranians.
Yet further away, Pakistani authorities reported indicting a group of seven of its nationals who had lived in Israel for years, working at menial jobs and sending remittances home. Reports also surfaced about the disappearance of four or five Muslim tourists from Kerala, India, during a tour of Israel in 2023.
Large Groups: In December 1999, as negotiations about the Golan Heights returning to Syrian control became serious, at least 2,000 of the 15,000 Druze residents there made plans to move to Israel proper. The head of one village council explained: “many people here won’t want to live in a Syrian Golan. … people want quality of life―and they know what Israel has to offer and what Syria has to offer.”
The largest single group of Arabs accepted into Israel was the 6,500 mostly Christian members of the South Lebanon Army who fled to Israel along with the retreating Israeli forces in May 2000; the number of Muslims among them is unclear. A mid-2001 report estimated that 40,000 Jordanians entered Israel as tourists in 2000 but stayed on illegally to work at higher-paying jobs in the Jewish state. When, for security reasons, Israeli authorities rounded up those Jordanians for overstaying their visas, with plans to repatriate them to Jordan, one worker responded with outrage:
I came to Israel five years ago to improve my economic situation. I later married in an Arab villager and now I have two children. I submitted my documents to the Palestinian Authority in order to have legal recognition as a Palestinian whose family moved to Jordan, and I want to stay here. But the Israeli authorities insisted on deporting me to Jordan.
Conclusion
The large-scale influx of Muslims to the Jewish State of Israel began with the origins of the state and has continued until the present. It has several implications. First, growing numbers has cooled their reception. As Israel emerged as an economic success story, Israelis became more wary of non-Jewish immigrants, seeing them as the thin edge of the wedge of uncontrolled influx. What will remain of the Jewish state? Some voices began to worry about an “existential threat” to the country.
Second, Muslim aliyah contributed very substantially to the number of Israel’s Muslim citizens. Looking over the nearly two centuries since its takeoff in the 1840s, I estimate that today, three-quarters of them are immigrants or the descendants of immigrants.
Third, although some immigrants have malign intentions―murder in particular―most seek a better life by making more money, uniting with a fiancée, seeking freedom, or even joining the Zionist experience, flocking (as American journalist Joseph Farah puts it) “to the tiny Jewish state from virtually every Arab and Muslim land in the world.” The Jerusalem Post notes, “Though viciously demonized by the Arab media, Israel curiously remains an attractive destination.” Whether the specific motive, the general point is clear: Zionism has attracted and benefited Muslims as well as Jews.
**Mr. Pipes (DanielPipes.org, @DanielPipes) is president of the Middle East Forum and a senior fellow at the Center for Immigration Studies.

The New Muslim ‘Conquest’ of Europe and the Role of Ribat
Raymond Ibrahim/The Stream/September 16/2024
According to an August 22 report, “Mobs of armed Muslims, many waving Palestinian flags, took over swathes of Birmingham, England’s second city, on Monday, and pursued journalists from the areas under their control ‘for miles.’” One reporter on the ground, Fraser Knight, said he was “chased out of an area of east Birmingham by groups of Asian men”:
The security guard with me decided immediately it wasn’t safe for us — it was clear we weren’t welcome — but there wasn’t a safe place for us to go for miles,” he continued, adding that cars followed them and that “at one point a group of around six men ran after us down a road with what looked like a weapon. We were forced to run…. In the 40 minutes we were there, we saw perhaps two or three police cars driving past. There were no officers on the streets that we walked. There were no vans on standby nearby that I could see. It felt like it was them against us — and there were a lot more of them.
Knight wasn’t the only journalist to be driven out by Birmingham’s new masters:
[A] broadcast by Comcast’s Sky News in the city was terminated after a mob of masked Muslims shouting “Free Palestine!” and making gun signs descended on them. In a later incident, a Sky News crew filmed a Muslim with a knife stabbing the wheels of their van.
These apparent Muslim takeovers come in response to regular Brits having had enough of migrants murdering their children — the latest murderer being the son of two African migrants (who may or may not be Muslim) — and rising up in protest. Authorities, meanwhile, have responded with double standards. The report continues,
The scenes in Birmingham only strengthen the accusations of a two-tier system for the “far right” and ethnic minorities, however. Almost everywhere they have gone, anti-mass migration protestors have been confronted aggressively by police in full riot gear. On the other hand, Muslim counter-demonstrators have been met by police liaison officers politely requesting that they deposit any weapons they are carrying unlawfully at nearby mosques.
How did Muslims, who first entered the UK as poor, impoverished asylum seekers, reach such a point of dominance? Certainly mass migration and supportive, lenient governmental policies have helped. But there’s another element at work here, and it goes under the Arabic term ribat.
What is Ribat?
Soon after the jihad broke out of Arabia in the seventh century, ribats formed wherever and whenever jihad was forcibly stopped by non-Muslims. There, on the frontier, the jihadists created a permanent base to continue waging war on the infidel. These strongholds were referred to as ribat, from an Arabic word (رباط) etymologically rooted to the idea of a “tight fastening” or “joining,” and used in the Koran: “O you who have believed, persevere and endure and remain fastened [رابطوا verb form of ribat] and fear Allah that you may be successful [3:200].” In other words, for Muslims to be “successful,” they must form tightly fastened strongholds along the borders of non-Muslim habitations, where they “persevere and endure” in their jihad to conquer and seize the lands of infidels. Interestingly, the word ribat lives on, though few recognize it. Rabat, the capital of Morocco, is so named because it was originally a ribat, from which devastating Barbary/pirate raids on Spain and the Christian Mediterranean were launched for centuries. Similarly, the Almoravids — the name of an important eleventh-century North African jihadist group — is simply a transliteration of the Arabic al-murabitun, “they who fight along the ribat.” In 1086 these “Almoravids” invaded Spain and crushed the Castilians at the battle of Sagrajas. Afterward they erected a mountain consisting of 2,400 Christian heads to triumphant cries of “Allahu Akbar.”
The Pain in Spain
Speaking of Spain, which, in the context of contemporary Britain, offers a useful paradigm of how Muslim and Christian neighbors traditionally interacted for centuries, another important ribat formed along that nation’s Duero River, separating the Christian north from the Islamic south. For centuries, it too became “a territory where one fights for the faith and a permanent place of the ribat,” wrote historian Joseph O’Callaghan. After explaining how the Muslims intentionally devastated the Duero region of Spain, later naming it “the Great Desert,” French historian Louis Bertrand wrote the following:
To keep the [northern] Christians in their place it did not suffice to surround them with a zone of famine and destruction. It was necessary also to go and sow terror and massacre among them…. If one bears in mind that this brigandage was almost continual, and that this fury of destruction and extermination was regarded as a work of piety — it was a holy war against infidels — it is not surprising that whole regions of Spain should have been made irremediably sterile. This was one of the capital causes of the deforestation from which the Peninsula still suffers. With what savage satisfaction and in what pious accents do the Arab annalists tell us of those at least bi-annual raids [across the ribat]. A typical phrase for praising the devotion of a Caliph is this: “he penetrated into Christian territory, where he wrought devastation, devoted himself to pillage, and took prisoners.” … At the same time as they were devastated, whole regions were depopulated. …. The prolonged presence of the Musulmans, therefore, was a calamity for this unhappy country of Spain. By their system of continual raids they kept her for centuries in a condition of brigandage and devastation.
This historic expostulation on the nature and role of the ribat is important to understanding Islam’s position in the West. Because Muhammad’s creed is fundamentally tribal — going so far as to demand that all Muslims hate all non-Muslims — once in a Western locale, Muslims do not assimilate but rather form ghettoes and “no-go” zones, where “radicalization” and jihadist activities thrive. In other words, they form ribats — bastions of Islamization and jihadist sentiment, from which they launch terror attacks on the infidels across the way — or, increasingly, just as in the historic Spain examples, on the infidels across the street. Just take a look at the UK, Sweden, Germany, France, and other Western nations which are littered with ribats and suffering accordingly.
Welcome, Invaders
The only difference between past and present ribats is that, historically, they formed wherever non-Muslims forcibly stopped them. Conversely, today’s ribats are not located along the borders of Muslim and non-Muslim regions, but rather right smack in the middle of European nations and cities such as Birmingham. Moreover, those entering and turning these Western regions into Islamic enclaves did not do so by force but rather because they were welcomed in with open arms. And till this very moment, those who welcomed them in — that is, the ruling class of Western Europe — are doing everything in their power to continue providing cover for Muslims, including through their two-tiered system of “justice.”
In short, the reason ribats are a problem in the West in general, and Britain in particular, is entirely due to Western actions. Muslims are simply doing what Muslims have always done.
*Raymond Ibrahim, author of Defenders of the West and Sword and Scimitar, is the Distinguished Senior Shillman Fellow at the Gatestone Institute and the Judith Rosen Friedman Fellow at the Middle East Forum.

Baghdad plays unwilling host to Iran’s axis of evil
Baria Alamuddin/Arab News/September 16, 2024
In a further move toward making Iraq a front-line state in Iran’s “axis of resistance,” Baghdad’s militia-dominated administration recently gave permission for both Hamas and the Houthis to set up permanent offices in the capital. Even Iraqi officials horrified by the development have been unable to speak out, such is the mafia-like stranglehold of Al-Hashd Al-Sha’abi militias on the country — particularly as Hamas’ office is located in a region of Baghdad controlled by Kata’ib Hezbollah, which also provides security for office personnel.
With the entirety of Lebanon threatened by destruction in regionalized war and daily escalations across the Lebanon-Israel border, Tehran has increasingly been looking to develop Baghdad into the beating heart of its regionwide “resistance” franchise; raising fears that this places Iraq in the direct line of fire next time Israel and America stage retaliatory strikes. Although Iraq’s government has denied their presence, meetings between Hamas’ Mohammed Al-Hafi and the Houthis’ Abu Idris Al-Sharafi and paramilitary leaders like Asa’ib Ahl Al-Haq’s Qais Al-Khazali have been conspicuously circulated on social media.
This paramilitary supremacy in Baghdad has spawned incessant scandals, armed rivalries and a pervasive stench of corruption. No less than the head of the country’s anti-corruption body, Judge Haider Hanoun, was recently apparently caught on tape boasting of receiving large sums of money. Meanwhile, arrest warrants have been issued over the theft of $2.5 billion in public funds. Senior personnel from the office of Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani have been arrested for the Watergate-style wiretapping of the entire political and judicial class, including Supreme Judicial Council chief judge Faiq Zaidan and former prime ministers Haider Abadi and Nouri Al-Maliki.
Tehran has increasingly been looking to develop Baghdad into the beating heart of its regionwide ‘resistance’ franchise
The wiretapping scandal is symptomatic of the bitter factional power struggles within Al-Hashd al-Sha’abi. While figures like Al-Maliki and Badr commander Hadi Al-Amiri seem to have been victims, allies of the prime minister like Al-Khazali were notably absent from the list of those spied upon, fueling speculation that this espionage was a case of rival militia factions spying on and attempting to discredit one another.
The scandal highlights how Iraq’s intelligence and security agencies have been politicized and thoroughly infiltrated by Tehran-backed, gangster-like militias. As an investigation by the Washington Institute highlighted this month, Iraq’s National Intelligence Service had been seen as relatively professional and independent. But since 2022, Al-Sudani’s government has purged the department, filling key posts with Hashd appointees. The service’s counterintelligence director, Faisal Al-Lami, is a nephew of Hashd chairman Faleh Al-Fayyad. Top posts in the National Security Service were in 2023 likewise handed to senior figures from Asa’ib Ahl Al-Haq.
Paramilitary patron Al-Maliki has been capitalizing on the wiretapping scandal to demand the ousting of Prime Minister Al-Sudani, who himself heads a Hashd-dominated administration. This illustrates how today’s struggles for political supremacy are not Sunni-Shiite in nature, or even between rival Shiite ideological camps, but are rather rivalries between power-hungry politicians and factions beholden to the pro-Iran Hashd agenda.
A large proportion of the civil tensions are due to paramilitaries facing off against each other in squabbles for supremacy. There has been fierce competition for control of provincial council seats between factions like Badr and Asa’ib Ahl Al-Haq in provinces like Diyala. Meanwhile, Badr and Kata’ib Hezbollah have been exerting their influence via rival proxy militias in Nineveh and Kirkuk.
Sunni forces, meanwhile, remain divided and marginalized. Any influence they can occasionally wield is usually rooted in shotgun marriages of convenience with nakedly sectarian Shiite factions. Symbolic of this is the long-standing failure to select a parliament speaker — the preeminent political role for the Sunni sect. In one symptom of how retrogressive factional and sectarian dynamics are dragging Iraq backwards, a law is currently in process through parliament that could allow girls to be married from age nine. Iraq already has one of the highest rates of underage marriage in the world, with 28 percent of girls married below the current legal age of 18. The proposed law would make this far worse, excluding women from education, careers and meaningful social roles. Iraq’s paramilitary warlords and kleptocratic politicians are a parasitic caste weighing intolerably on the backs of ordinary Iraqis
While paramilitary warlords cream off Iraq’s vast oil wealth, Shiite, Sunni and Kurd citizens exist in a state of harsh impoverishment, living with chronic power cuts, unemployment, nonexistent public services and the crippling impact of the Hashd’s gangster-like extortion of all manifestations of economic activity. Iraq’s paramilitary warlords and kleptocratic politicians are a parasitic caste weighing intolerably on the backs of ordinary Iraqis, who only expect next year’s elections to bring new permutations of servitude, insatiable greed and periodic violence.
Post-election clashes between armed Shiite rivals and a resurgent Daesh resulting from the premature withdrawal of US forces are both terrifying scenarios. Indeed, 2024 has seen a net increase in Daesh activity, notably in eastern Syria, which shares a highly permeable border with Iraq.
I first started researching my book, “Militia State,” in 2017, examining how predatory paramilitaries were becoming dominant across Iraq. In the years since, these militias have only become more of a fundamental threat, while the Gaza conflict has encouraged these forces to flex their muscles across the regional stage. Many of us have been arguing for years that the Hashd not only poses an existential threat to Iraq, but that Tehran sees these fighters as a transnational force to be deployed at will against its many enemies — rival Arab states, Sunni demographics, Israel or the West. As its force size and military budget relentlessly expanded and militias monopolized the entire governing system, the world steadfastly looked the other way.
Now, with hundreds of thousands of militia fighters in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Iran, Palestine and Yemen increasingly acting as a seamless whole, while loudly boasting of the threat they pose to the regional and global order, it is well past time for the world to start paying attention. The international community must properly get its head around the complex and multipronged threat that the Hashd and Iran’s wider axis of evil poses.
*Baria Alamuddin is an award-winning journalist and broadcaster in the Middle East and the UK. She is editor of the Media Services Syndicate and has interviewed numerous heads of state.