Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on January 23-24/2024
Elias Bejjani/Video: Commemorating the Annual Brutal Damour Massacre
Elias Bejjani/Video and Text: Commemorating the Annual Brutal Damour Massacre
Israel violates rules of engagement in southern Lebanon
France says wants to avoid 'escalation' between Lebanon and Israel
Hezbollah targets Meron command center in northern Israel
Mikati denies that he intends to quit politics
Mikati praises Hezbollah 'restraint', says Hochstein didn't mention group 'pullback'
Majdal Selm's calm shattered: Israeli strike hits house, raising concerns
Israel firing in south Lebanon kills over 200 since start of Gaza war
Berri discusses with Saudi ambassador efforts to expedite the presidential process
Egyptian ambassador meets Berri, says no dispute among 5-nation envoys
Arab peace advocacy: Bou Habib's vision for comprehensive solutions
Qatari envoy in Beirut as KSA explores Iran stance on '3rd candidate'
Kataeb Party leader warns against Hezbollah's 'influence' on Lebanon's fate amidst Hamas-Israel tensions
BDL's new circular: Limiting monthly withdrawals to $150 amid economic crisis
Mikati Hails Hezbollah’s ‘Restraint,’ No Mention of ‘Pullback’ by Hochstein
Hezbollah Strikes Meron Command Center in Northern Israel
France Aims to Prevent Lebanon-Israel ‘Escalation’
Lebanon: The Liberation Era of 2000 Has Come to an End/Nadim Koteich/Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper/January 23/2024
Lebanon’s political standoff: Impasse over army appointments/A new crisis has erupted in Lebanon, this time, over its military council/Sami Moubayed, Correspondent/Gulf News/January 23, 2024
Lebanon, Iran, and Forms of Solidarity with Gaza/Hazem Saghieh/Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper/January 23/2024

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on January 23-24/2024
Israel says 24 soldiers killed in deadliest day of ground war
Israeli says its forces have encircled Khan Younis city in south Gaza
Israel proposes pause in fighting as part of hostage deal: Axios
Netanyahu under pressure over Israel troop losses, hostages
Egypt warns Israel not to seize control of land that separates them
Egypt confirms Israel has proposed a 2-month ceasefire
Netanyahu: Loss of 21 Soldiers a ‘Toughest Day’ in the War
Khan Younis Encircled by IDF; Hospital Exodus Unfolds
Israel Offers Ceasefire in Hostage Deal Talks, Axios Reports
War Continues: Israel at a crossroads after recent attack amid Israeli public's fury
Path to peace: EU presents long-term peace plan for Israeli-Palestinian resolution
UN chief warns that Israel's rejection of a two-state solution threatens global peace
Very little aid reaching northern Gaza - WFP
Iran's top diplomat says risk of war in the Middle East 'has gone up,' blames US
NATO approves $1.2 billion for artillery
Canada sending more equipment to Ukraine as full-scale war with Russia nears two-year mark
Syria says there were no grounds for Jordanian air strikes on its soil
US and UK Unleash Fresh Strikes on Houthi Sites in Yemen
Russia Denies Allegations of Deporting Ukrainian Children, Responds to UN Inquiry
US defense secretary makes first public appearance, virtually, since hospitalization

Titles For The Latest English LCCC  analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources on January 23-24/2024
Iran on the Borders of Israel/Ghassan Charbel/Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper/January 23/2024
A Real Global System Needs a Different Type of Leadership/Eyad Abu Shakra/Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper/January 23/2024
Temporary Survival/Tariq Al-Homayed/Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper/January 23/2024
What does Iran want?/Andrew England in London and Najmeh Bozorgmehr in Tehran/Financilal Times/January 19/2024
Wanted: Palestinian Leaders Who Will Condemn Terrorism/Bassam Tawil/Gatestone Institute./January 23, 2024
After Israel-Hamas war, Egyptian Copts face ambiguous future/Haisam Hassanein/ Washington Examiner/January 23/2024 |

Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on January 23-24/2024
Elias Bejjani/Video: Commemorating the Annual Brutal Damour Massacre
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CKGYNVyj_Os&t=31s
Elias Bejjani/January 21, 2024

Elias Bejjani/Video and Text: Commemorating the Annual Brutal Damour Massacre
Elias Bejjani/January 21, 2024
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/126200/126200/
The memory of the Damour Massacre, perpetrated by the Syrian Assad regime, Palestinian terrorism, leftist and Arab nationalist groups, and jihadists on January 20, 1976, remains etched in the Lebanese, Christian, moral, national, and faith-based consciousness. It serves as a painful reminder of a brutal chapter in Lebanon's history and the resilient struggle of its free Christian community.
This anniversary reflects a dark period where internal traitors and mercenaries aligned with Palestinian, Arab, leftist, and jihadist terrorism executed brutal and barbaric massacres against the peaceful inhabitants of the Damour Town, and the Christian residents along the Shouf region coast. This period culminated in the siege of President Camille Chamoun in the town of Saadiyat.
The Damour Massacre anniversary symbolizes a bloody chapter in the ongoing evil attempts to uproot Christians from Lebanon, dismantle Lebanon's entity, disrupt coexistence, undermine its role, erode identity, and attack its civilization. Enemies of Lebanon, civilization, and humanity destroyed homes and churches in Damour and its neighboring coastal towns, burning fields and displacing the Christian population.
The innocent victims of the Damour Massacre, estimated at 684 individuals, including children, women, elders, and fighters, will not be forgotten.
planners and executors of this atrocity, along with their demonic objectives to uproot and displace Christians from Lebanon, remain ingrained in our collective memory.
These sinister schemes persist today, targeting not only Christians, but various Lebanese sovereign and independent groups through local, regional, and international entities, each with its distinct identity, yet united under hostile, sectarian, and terrorist concepts.
In the present time, the Iranian Mullahs' regime, through its terrorist proxy Hezbollah, the criminal Assad regime, and numerous local mercenaries from leftists, jihadists, and resistance traders, continue the chapters of the Damour Massacre.
The occupation faced by Lebanon goes beyond Damour to encompass the entire country and its social community fabrics. The Mullahs' regime seeks, through force and terrorism, not only to uproot Christians from Lebanon, but also to destroy its entity, overthrow its coexistence and civilized system, aiming to replace it with an Islamic Republic annexed to Tehran's rulers. This serves as a base to overthrow all Arab regimes and establish the Persian Empire.
On this painful anniversary, all Lebanese sovereign, independent, and peaceful social and denominational groups, led by the Christians, will not forget the heroism of our noble, honorable, and brave people who stood against invaders and mercenaries, sacrificing themselves for their sacred homeland.
No, we will not forget our Lebanese righteous Damour martyrs, and we will not forget their sacrifices. On this somber day, we raise prayers, humbly asking for their souls to rest in peace in God's eternal heavenly mansions.

Israel violates rules of engagement in southern Lebanon
NAJIA HOUSSARI/Arab News/January 23, 2024
BEIRUT: Israel has been found to have again violated the rules of engagement. Israeli warplanes launched air strikes on an open forest area located between Roumine, Houmin Al-Fawqa, and Sarba, in the Iqlim Al-Tuffah region on Tuesday afternoon.
A resident in the targeted area told Arab News that the intensity of artillery fire was unspeakable: “The buildings and the floor shook. Everyone was terrified.”A security source stated that “although Israel violated the rules of engagement, it is still excluding civilians in general. The Israeli army claims that the houses it is bombing are of Hezbollah cadres or have armed militants. Nonetheless, the destruction is huge, and the economy is paralyzed all along the border region.”Israeli aircraft launched two missiles on the targeted area. A massive explosion rocked Nabatieh and Iqlim Al-Tuffah and clouds of smoke coated the area. Hostilities between Hezbollah and the Israeli army were witnessed across all southern border fronts. Israel launched artillery shells targeting Hamams Hill, the outskirts of Chihine, Marwahin, Tayr Harfa, Ramyah, Jabal Blat, and the southern outskirts of Mays El Jabal. An Israeli drone fired two missiles at a shipping container located on an agricultural land in Al-Wazzani. Israeli warplanes raided Jumayjimah — a village located between Tyre and Bint Jbeil — for the first time since the beginning of the attacks. UNIFIL, the peacekeeping mission in Lebanon, remained in position while the administrative staff were still working from home. Alarm sirens sounded multiple times at the UNIFIL centers during the Israeli bombardment of the area, indicating that the Israeli army expanded the geographical scope of its assaults beyond the southern Litani River, targeting southern villages that had not experienced attacks since the beginning of the conflict. Meanwhile, Hezbollah announced that it had “attacked the Meron Air Control Base in Jabal Al-Jarmaq for the second time in response to the recent assassinations in Lebanon and Syria and the repeated attacks on civilians and homes in our steadfast villages with a large number of suitable missiles, achieving direct hits.”The Israeli army spokesman confirmed the attack, saying that “damage was caused to the infrastructure of Meron Air Control Base after being hit by missiles launched from Lebanon.”Hezbollah also announced that it had targeted “a gathering of enemy soldiers on Cobra Hill with missile weapons, achieving direct hits.”Israeli media reported that sirens sounded in several areas in the Upper Galilee. The launch of missiles caused a power outage in many settlements in the region. Israeli aircraft raided Blida on Monday night targeting three houses. The massive destruction in the town was revealed on Tuesday morning. After Israel threatened to launch a war against Lebanon, the Lebanese Ministry of Health resumed emergency preparedness activities in government hospitals in the south and in Beirut, simulating crisis situations in the event of any possible attack against Lebanon. Rafic Hariri University Hospital, located on the outskirts of Beirut’s southern suburb, hosted a training maneuver for the hospital staff. Competent authorities participated in the training, including the Lebanese Red Cross, the Emergency and Medical Services, the army command, the Internal Security Forces, and the municipality of Ghobeiry, in cooperation with the Ministry of Health, World Health Organization, and the International Committee of the Red Cross.

France says wants to avoid 'escalation' between Lebanon and Israel
Agence France Presse/January/23/2024
France hopes to avoid "an escalation" on the border between Israel and Lebanon, the French Ministry of the Armed Forces reiterated on Monday in Tel Aviv, where he met political figures including Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. "No one, neither in Tel Aviv, nor in Jerusalem, nor in Beirut, wants war. (...) The real challenge for us is to ensure that this escalation, which may seem inevitable, does not happen," declared Sébastien Lecornu in an interview with AFP. The priority, according to him, is to implement the U.N. Resolution 1701 so “that one party does not shoot at the other side of the border and that the other side (...) does not retaliate with the risk of escalation”.U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 conflict, called for all armed personnel to pull back north of the Litani River, except for United Nations peacekeepers and Lebanese state security forces. The Israeli army says Hezbollah attacks "violate U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701" while Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati said Lebanon was ready to implement international resolutions if Israel also complied and withdrew from disputed territory.

Hezbollah targets Meron command center in northern Israel
Naharnet/January/23/2024
Hezbollah targeted Tuesday Israeli troops and positions as Israeli air strikes and artillery shelling targeted Lebanese border villages. Hezbollah said it targeted the Israeli army's northern command center in response to "recent assassinations and repeated attacks on civilians" in Lebanon and Syria. It said it had launched a "large number" of missiles at the Mount Meron base in its second such attack since Palestinian militant group Hamas's unprecedented October 7 assault on Israel sparked war in Gaza. Its first on January 6 came in response to killing of Hamas deputy leader Saleh al-Arouri in a strike in Beirut widely blamed on Israel. The Israeli army said Hezbollah’s attack on Tuesday caused "minor infrastructure damage" at the Meron base. Earlier today, Hezbollah attacked a group of Israeli soldiers at the Cobra hill. The Israeli army for its part shelled the outskirts of Shihin, Merwahin, Tayrharfa, Ramia, Jabal Blat, Mays al-Jabal and the Hamames Hill while a drone carried out an airstrike on an agricultural land in al-Wazzani. Israeli warplanes had struck overnight three houses in the southern border town of Blida, the National News Agency said. Since the outbreak of war between Hamas and Israel on October 7, the Lebanese-Israeli border has witnessed a near-daily exchange of fire between Israel's army and Hezbollah. 202 people have been killed in south Lebanon, 147 of them belonging to Hezbollah. At least 26 civilians have also been killed, including three journalists and two rescuers in addition to a Lebanese soldier.
More than 83,000 Lebanese have been forced to flee their homes since hostilities began, according to the International Organization for Migration. On the Israeli side, 15 people have been killed in the northern border area, including nine soldiers and six civilians, according to the Israeli army.

Mikati denies that he intends to quit politics
Naharnet/January/23/2024
Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati on Tuesday denied a media report claiming that he intends to quit politics. “Most of what was mentioned in the aforementioned article is merely a host of premature analyses,” a statement issued by Mikati’s press office said. Mikati “will continue his work during this critical period that Lebanon is going through,” the statement added. Quoting sources close to Mikati, a report in al-Joumhouria newspaper has said that he is not interested in returning as premier when a new president gets elected. “After he exits the premiership, he wants to fully focus on managing the Azm and Saade Association, a social welfare association that he founded together with his brother Taha in Tripoli in 1988,” the report said. “He will refrain from returning to power or to traditional political activity … without abandoning his national action,” the report added.

Mikati praises Hezbollah 'restraint', says Hochstein didn't mention group 'pullback'
Naharnet/January/23/2024
Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati has praised again Hezbollah's restraint despite the elevated number of deaths of its members.The number of people killed by Israeli fire into south Lebanon since the start of the war in Gaza has risen to more than 200, with 147 of them belonging to Hezbollah. Israel has also moved in recent weeks to a strategy of targeted killings after more than three months of near-daily clashes with Hezbollah. "We see that Hezbollah is practicing restraint to preserve Lebanon’s best interest by not dragging it into open war," Mikati told Nidaa al-Watan newspaper, in remarks published Tuesday. He added that U.S. mediator Amos Hochstein had carried during his last visit to Beirut an "acceptable proposal" that would bring a relative stability to the border, paving the way for permanent stability. "He didn't mention to me anything about pulling back Hezbollah seven kilometers from the border," Mikati said. Israel has been pushing for Hezbollah to withdraw north of the Litani River, which lies about 30 km north of the border. Hochstein had reportedly proposed in his visit earlier this month a cessation of hostilities between Lebanon and Israel and an eight-kilometer pullback by Hezbollah from the border, which would allow for the return of displaced residents on both sides of the border. Mikati said that the issues of the land border demarcation and the occupied territories will be raised once stability returns to the border.

Majdal Selm's calm shattered: Israeli strike hits house, raising concerns
LBCI/January/23/2024
This is how the aftermath of the first Israeli strike on a house in a residential neighborhood in Majdal Selm appeared. Drones flew for a long time before the warplanes targeted a two-story house, destroying significant parts of it and leading to the martyrdom of one member and the injury of three from Hezbollah. Majdal Selm had previously been exposed to shelling, but its neighborhoods remained safe until Monday evening. The damages and debris scattered tens of meters away, affecting ten surrounding houses. Majdal Selm is seven kilometers away from the nearest border point. Before it, Kafra, the outskirts of Seddiqine, Bazouriye, and Taybeh were targeted by the Israelis. Notably, these towns form a rear line several kilometers away from the borders, where life continues in a semi-normal way and even welcomed displaced families since October 8. The attacks are still limited to specific points that were targeted. Will their repetition or expansion constitute a pressure factor by the Israelis toward a new wave of displacement?

Israel firing in south Lebanon kills over 200 since start of Gaza war
Agence France Presse/January/23/2024
The number of people killed by Israeli fire into south Lebanon since the start of the war in Gaza has risen to more than 200, according to an AFP tally. Since the outbreak of war between Hamas and Israel on October 7, the Lebanese-Israeli border has witnessed a near-daily exchange of fire between Israel's army and Lebanon's Shiite movement Hezbollah, an ally of Gaza-based Hamas. On Monday, Hezbollah announced that three of its fighters had been killed "on the road to Jerusalem" -- the phrase the group has been using to refer to militants killed by Israeli fire since hostilities began. That took the overall number of deaths in south Lebanon to 202, according to AFP's tally. The majority were fighters, with 147 of them belonging to Hezbollah, according to an AFP count of death notices issued by the group. AFP based its overall tally on death notices issued by groups involved in fighting, including Hezbollah and various Palestinian factions, as well as official sources. Israeli fire has also killed at least 26 civilians, including three journalists and two rescuers in addition to a Lebanese soldier. The Lebanese army has not exchanged fire with Israel since hostilities began. Hamas and the Palestinian militant group Islamic Jihad have also each said they have lost 10 militants in the hostilities in south Lebanon. Monday saw air strikes and artillery shelling targeting Lebanese border villages, with a high school damaged in Taybeh near the Israeli border, Lebanon's official National News Agency reported. Hezbollah also said it targeted Israeli troops and positions. The tally does not include the killing of Hamas deputy Saleh al-Arouri and six other militants in a strike on a Hezbollah-controlled south Beirut suburb, which was widely blamed on Israel. Hezbollah has also lost at least 16 fighters in Israeli strikes on Syria.
More than 83,000 Lebanese have been forced to flee their homes since hostilities began, according to the International Organization for Migration. On the Israeli side, 15 people have been killed in the northern border area, including nine soldiers and six civilians, according to the Israeli army.

Berri discusses with Saudi ambassador efforts to expedite the presidential process
LBCI/January/23/2024
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri discussed current political developments in Lebanon and the region with the Saudi Ambassador to Lebanon, Walid Bukhari, at Ain el-Tineh. The meeting delved into efforts to expedite the presidential process as the sole path to ensure Lebanon's stability and initiate essential reforms.

Egyptian ambassador meets Berri, says no dispute among 5-nation envoys
Naharnet/January/23/2024
Egyptian Ambassador to Lebanon Alaa Moussa held talks Tuesday in Ain el-Tineh with Speaker Nabih Berri, after a meeting between Berri and the ambassadors of the five-nation group for Lebanon was postponed. “The meeting of the five-nation committee (with Berri) that was scheduled for today has been postponed for the sole purpose of arranging the ambassadors’ appointments,” Moussa said after the talks. “It was an occasion to stress the unity of the five-nation committee’s stance and the challenges that are happening in the region necessitate speeding up the election of a president,” the ambassador added. “We discussed the events in the region, their impact on Lebanon, the presidential vacuum and the mechanism of the work of the five-nation committee in the future,” Moussa said. In an earlier TV interview, the ambassador had said that the envoys of the five-nation group would meet with Berri, caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati and other officials. “There is no dispute among the ambassadors of the five-nation group and they will hold a meeting Tuesday as part of the constant communication,” Moussa added. Al-Jadeed television had said that Berri’s meeting with the ambassadors had been postponed to a later date because some of the envoys had previously-scheduled appointments.

Arab peace advocacy: Bou Habib's vision for comprehensive solutions
LBCI/January/23/2024
Minister of Foreign Affairs Abdallah Bou Habib affirmed the "Arab desire to end the conflict through the establishment of a just, comprehensive, and sustainable peace based on the two-state solution, and the Arab Peace Initiative issued at the 2002 Beirut Summit, for the peace project to succeed in our region."
During a lecture at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York, the Foreign Minister explained "Lebanon's position, supporting the restoration of calm and security to the south through Israel's withdrawal from all Lebanese territories it still occupies, especially the Shebaa Farms, and the cessation of violations."
He noted that "the Prime Minister requested during the refugee conference in Geneva that the High Commissioner for Refugees initiate pilot programs for the safe return of Syrians to their villages, as their continued presence without solutions in Lebanon threatens the security and stability of the region."
Bou Habib also met with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, and they agreed on "the importance of respecting human rights in all conflicts and avoiding double standards." They also discussed "the provocations faced by Lebanon and attempts to lure it into war." They emphasized the "importance of Palestinian unity to achieve an independent Palestinian state." On the other hand, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Algeria, Ahmed Attaf, informed Minister Bou Habib during their meeting of "Algeria's support and standing by Lebanon and the Palestinian cause, as a representative of the Arab voice in the United Nations Security Council, to restore rights to their rightful owners."The two ministers, Attaf and Bou Habib, also agreed on "the importance and necessity of US pressure on Israel to accept a peaceful resolution to the conflict, by international legitimacy." Bou Habib also discussed the situation in the Middle East with the Foreign Minister of Indonesia, Retno Marsudi, and they agreed on the "urgent need for an immediate ceasefire and the two-state solution in Gaza."In addition, Bou Habib met with the Iranian Foreign Minister, Hossein Amir Abdollahian, emphasizing the "need to stop the war and its dangers on the situation in the Middle East." The Iranian minister also briefed his Lebanese counterpart on political contacts and the Iranian initiative to end the conflict.

Qatari envoy in Beirut as KSA explores Iran stance on '3rd candidate'
Naharnet/January/23/2024
Qatari envoy Jassem Al-Thani has arrived in Beirut and will exert efforts to facilitate the stalled Lebanese presidential election file, al-Jadeed TV has reported. Al-Joumhouria newspaper meanwhile said “the five-nation group for Lebanon seems to have decided to separate the presidential file from other demands that had been previously raised.”“It will deal with the presidential juncture separately from the other political issues,” the daily added. Ad-Diyar newspaper for its part commented on the meeting that was held Monday between the Iranian and Saudi ambassadors to Lebanon -- Mojtaba Amani and Walid Bukhari. Bukhari “tried to explore Tehran’s stance regarding any possible suggestion from the five-nation group as to a third (presidential) choice” other than Suleiman Franjieh and Jihad Azour, the daily said. The Saudi ambassador “heard the same and usual Iranian response, which is that Tehran does not interfere in Hezbollah’s choices,” the newspaper added.

Kataeb Party leader warns against Hezbollah's 'influence' on Lebanon's fate amidst Hamas-Israel tensions
LBCI/January/23/2024
On Tuesday, the leader of the Kataeb Party, Samy Gemayel, affirmed that "we will not change our positions, and we refuse to let anyone decide our future. We reject that Hezbollah or others drag Lebanon into destruction. Hezbollah opened the front in support of Hamas."During his speech, he said that Hezbollah "decides for all of us what happens in the south, meaning that it has not only connected Lebanon but also linked us to Hamas. The future of the Lebanese is now linked to Hamas."He affirmed that we must wait to see what happens between Hamas and Israel to determine whether Lebanon will enter a war or not.
Gemayel stated that "their goal is to protect Iran and its system in the region [...] In reality, we must support any oppressed people, and this is our duty, but not to the extent of destroying our country."The leader of the Kataeb Party reaffirmed the Palestinian people's right to have a state but rejected Lebanon's "destruction" for the sake of any country in the world. Gemayel reported, "We want a country of partnership, and we, who founded the country and participated in its establishment and independence for more than 85 years, insist on the 10,452 square kilometers."
"Whoever wants Lebanon to pay the price of Israel's security should 'pay' from his account and not ours," he added. He said they want to be present on all platforms, and "we will not run away because we want to tell the truth to everyone. As long as checking identities is 'okay,' let us check the identity of Amos [Hochstein], for example, who fought with the Israeli army."

BDL's new circular: Limiting monthly withdrawals to $150 amid economic crisis
LBCI/January/23/2024
To address Lebanon's economic challenges, the Banque du Liban (BDL) is reportedly drafting a new circular. The new circular restricts individuals to withdrawing a maximum of $150 per month from their dollar-denominated accounts stuck in the bank, regardless of the account size or the period it was opened, whether before or after October 17, 2019. However, the circular comes with three specific conditions for individuals seeking to benefit from this limited withdrawal option:
1- Individuals should not be currently enrolled in Circular 158, which allows monthly withdrawals of $300 or $400. 2- Beneficiaries can only withdraw from one account, even if they have multiple accounts in different banks. The withdrawal limit of $150 monthly applies to one account per individual.
3- The funds in the account must have legitimate sources, and individuals are not allowed to engage in speculative practices, such as purchasing undervalued checks for profit.
When will this new circular be activated?
The acting BDL governor, Wassim Mansouri, is awaiting the outcome of the budget session. If the budget is approved and the exchange rate remains at LBP 15,000 to the dollar in banks, the circular is expected to be issued by the end of this month.
Nonetheless, the circular may not be issued if the Parliament approves the budget with an exchange rate of LBP 89,000 to the dollar. In this scenario, the governor deems it unnecessary, as depositors will automatically receive their funds at the new exchange rate, equivalent to the market rate. Regardless of the fate of the circular, obstacles remain in its execution, with many banks expressing reservations about their ability to finance these monthly withdrawals, citing challenges in meeting the financial demands imposed by the circular.

Mikati Hails Hezbollah’s ‘Restraint,’ No Mention of ‘Pullback’ by Hochstein
Daily Star/January/23/2024
Lebanese Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati has once again commended Hezbollah for its controlled response despite the significant loss of its members due to Israeli actions. Since the Gaza war began, Israeli operations in southern Lebanon have resulted in over 200 fatalities, with Hezbollah members accounting for 147 of those deaths. Israel has shifted its military strategy to focus on targeted assassinations following three months of almost daily confrontations with Hezbollah. In an interview with Nidaa al-Watan newspaper published on Tuesday, Mikati highlighted Hezbollah’s efforts to protect Lebanon’s interests by avoiding a full-scale war. “We see that Hezbollah is practicing restraint to preserve Lebanon’s best interest by not dragging it into open war,” he said. Mikati also mentioned that U.S. mediator Amos Hochstein brought a feasible proposal during his recent visit to Beirut, aimed at creating relative stability along the border as a step towards lasting peace. Contrary to some reports, Mikati clarified that Hochstein did not suggest a seven-kilometer withdrawal of Hezbollah from the border. Israel has been advocating for Hezbollah’s retreat beyond the Litani River, approximately 30 km north of the border.
During Hochstein’s visit earlier in the month, he reportedly proposed a ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel and an eight-kilometer pullback by Hezbollah from the border. This measure was intended to facilitate the return of displaced people on both sides. Mikati stated that discussions regarding the demarcation of the land border and the issue of occupied territories would be addressed once stability is reestablished at the border.

Hezbollah Strikes Meron Command Center in Northern Israel
Daily Star/January/23/2024
Hezbollah launched an attack against Israeli troops and positions on Tuesday, while Israeli forces responded with airstrikes and artillery fire on Lebanese border villages. The attack by Hezbollah, which included targeting the Israeli army’s northern command center, was a response to what they described as “recent assassinations and repeated attacks on civilians” in Lebanon and Syria. Hezbollah stated it fired numerous missiles at the Mount Meron base, marking its second such assault since Hamas initiated a war in Gaza on October 7 with an unprecedented attack on Israel. The first Hezbollah attack on January 6 was a retaliation for the death of Hamas deputy leader Saleh al-Arouri, which was widely attributed to Israel. According to the Israeli army, the assault by Hezbollah on Tuesday resulted in minor damage to the infrastructure at the Meron base. Earlier the same day, Hezbollah also attacked a group of Israeli soldiers stationed at Cobra hill. In response, the Israeli military conducted shelling in various Lebanese locations, including Shihin, Merwahin, Tayrharfa, Ramia, Jabal Blat, Mays al-Jabal, and Hamames Hill. Additionally, an Israeli drone strike targeted agricultural land in al-Wazzani. Israeli warplanes also hit three houses in the southern border town of Blida overnight, as reported by the National News Agency. Since the onset of the conflict between Hamas and Israel on October 7, the Lebanese-Israeli border has experienced almost daily exchanges of fire. The conflict has resulted in the deaths of 202 people in south Lebanon, including 147 Hezbollah members. Civilian casualties include at least 26 people, among them three journalists, two rescuers, and a Lebanese soldier. The International Organization for Migration reports that over 83,000 Lebanese have been displaced due to the hostilities. On the Israeli side, the conflict has claimed the lives of 15 people, including nine soldiers and six civilians.

France Aims to Prevent Lebanon-Israel ‘Escalation’
Daily Star/January/23/2024
France has expressed its desire to prevent any escalation of tensions along the Israel-Lebanon border. This sentiment was reiterated by the French Ministry of the Armed Forces during a visit to Tel Aviv on Monday, which included meetings with various political figures, such as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Sébastien Lecornu, in an interview with AFP, emphasized that no party in Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, or Beirut is seeking war. He stressed the importance of avoiding what might appear to be an inevitable escalation. “The real challenge for us is to ensure that this escalation, which may seem inevitable, does not happen,” Lecornu stated. He pointed out that the immediate focus should be on enforcing U.N. Resolution 1701, which aims to prevent one side from firing across the border and the other from retaliating, potentially leading to further conflict. U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701, adopted to conclude the 2006 conflict, mandates the withdrawal of all armed forces north of the Litani River, with the exception of U.N. peacekeepers and Lebanese state security forces. The Israeli military has accused Hezbollah of violating U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701 with its attacks. Conversely, Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati has stated that Lebanon is prepared to adhere to international resolutions, provided Israel also complies and withdraws from contested areas.

Lebanon: The Liberation Era of 2000 Has Come to an End
Nadim Koteich/Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper/January 23/2024
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/126354/126354/
These days, the residents of South Lebanon see Hezbollah as a shattered shield. After the shadow of the liberation narrative that had been imposed on everyone and embellished by Hezbollah loomed large for over two decades, 2000, the year Israel withdrew from the country, now seems like a long, long time ago. This climate, and faith in a “grand achievement” (“the liberation of southern Lebanon from the Israeli occupation”), which had prevailed since the turn of the millennium, is nowhere to be seen today. At the time, debates about the various complex reasons for the withdrawal were swept under the rug.
There was no discussion about the fact that the withdrawal was the result of Israeli policy and not purely an outcome of resistance. Everyone was complicit in accepting Hezbollah's narrative, celebrating Israel’s withdrawal as a major victory for Hezbollah that reinforced the convergence of all Lebanese citizens around its resistance. It also allowed the party to help balance the influence of regional actors like Iran and Syria in the Lebanese arena.
Moreover, residents of South Lebanon became more convinced that Hezbollah was their most effective bulwark against Israel. They went about building homes along the border with Israel and opening small and medium-sized businesses facing the fence separating the two countries. “Inspecting the enemy” at “Fatima Gate” and other points of friction became a flourishing tourist attraction. Throughout, Hezbollah made use of its expertise in propaganda to further underpin its narrative of victory and convince the Lebanese that it could deter Israel and protect the country.
Two decades on, its luster has all but disappeared. Hezbollah’s narrative of liberation, changing equations, and rewriting history and the rules of engagement (and other terms Hassan Nasrallah added to the lexicons of the Southerners) has been undercut.
Even the July 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah, with its mass destruction and horrific casualty figures, did not do as much to undermine Hezbollah's reputation and prestige. At the end of that war, Nasrallah managed to declare a “divine victory” and pretend a role in reconstruction efforts as he strove to restore his image as a defender of the Lebanese people and protector of the South.
While the 2006 war - coupled with the party's entry into the assassination and intimidation game within Lebanon as the evidence directly linking it to the assassination of Rafik Hariri began to mount, as well as its attempts to consolidate its control over the country after Syria pulled out - marked the beginning of the gradual shift in how the Lebanese saw Hezbollah, it had managed to keep its narrative of resistance ingrained in the consciousness of the Southerners; indeed it managed to convince them that everything it had done was in defense of this resistance.
Today, the broad destruction in the villages along the border and the mass displacement of their inhabitants have negated the entire discourse Hezbollah had been promoting about the resilience of the Southerners and its ability to deter the enemy, and its claims that the time when Israel would attack these villages was behind us now ring hollow!
The picture becomes even more bleak once we consider that the four months of displacement and destruction have coincided with Lebanon’s economic collapse, a decisive factor in weakening Hezbollah's narrative of liberation, strength, and dignity. The South and the Bekaa have provided a rural refuge for citizens, mostly public sector employees or retirees, whose incomes had been decimated.
Now, they find themselves having to contend with the high cost of living in Beirut or its suburbs, where they have to rent apartments and pay for alternatives to collapsed basic services, or are deprived of the income they used to derive from renting out their property in Beirut and had depended on to make ends meet in their villages. At a time when Lebanon is suffering from hyperinflation, capital controls, a collapse of public services, and is on the brink of bankruptcy, Hezbollah can do almost nothing to meet the needs of its base and maintain its image as the protector of their interests and those of the Lebanese more broadly. Furthermore, supporters and observers would struggle to point to “glorious” moments in Lebanon since Hezbollah declared its war in support of Gaza on October 8th, like the moment it struck Israel’s Saar warship off the Lebanese coast in 2006. At the time, Nasrallah personally phoned in as the images were broadcast on a television station, in the midst of the war, telling the audience to “Watch as it burns at sea!”
On the contrary, the current war highlights many of Hezbollah’s many weaknesses. Several of its field commanders and key military commanders were taken out in close proximity. Israel has clearly come out on top as it pursues a strategy focused on weakening Hezbollah's operational capabilities by targeting its infrastructure and military top brass. Hezbollah's restrained retaliations present a sharp contrast to these painful blows, and, for that matter, to its performance in 2006 as well. Aggravating the difficult position it finds itself in as it retaliates with only limited strikes, Hezbollah has intervened in regional conflicts without a second thought, first in Syria and now in Yemen. These interventions have depleted its resources and distorted its mission in the minds of its support base, as well as undermining its overall standing in Lebanon and beyond. The role Hezbollah will play and the future it will exert in Lebanon and the region remain uncertain. What is certain is that nothing remains of the era of liberation and the myths around it that had granted Hezbollah legitimacy and allowed it to play that role. Nearly a quarter of a century after the so-called “liberation of the South,” Hezbollah is grappling with a series of military setbacks, a terrible economic crisis, and shifts in how people feel about the party. All of these factors have converged to totally dissipate the reputation it had built for itself at that moment in 2000.

Lebanon’s political standoff: Impasse over army appointments/A new crisis has erupted in Lebanon, this time, over its military council
Sami Moubayed, Correspondent/Gulf News/January 23, 2024
Lebanon is mired in a state of political gridlock and continues to grapple with persistent electricity shortages, compounded by a simultaneous financial and economic crisis
Before last year came to a close, Lebanon had been on the brink of a political showdown over the tenure of army commander Joseph Aoun, which was due to expire this January. Parliament speaker Nabih Berri had been pushing for an extension, arguing with a presidential vacuum at Baabda Palace ongoing since October 2022, the last thing needed was another one at army command. In Lebanon’s multilayered confessional system, both posts have historically been reserved for the country’s Maronite Christians. But it wasn’t only the future of army command that was on Berri’s mind. There were other vacancies at the Lebanese Military Council, waiting to be filled, including that of chief inspector of the armed forces, director of administrative affairs, and army chief-of-staff. They needed three signatures to pass; one from the Army Commander; one from the Minister of Defence, and a two-third approval in the Cabinet of Ministers. If Army Command remained vacant, then so would these three important posts. They pushed for extension, fearing that if no replacement was found, then the job of army commander would go to a non-Christian, like what happened to the governor of Central Bank Riad Salameh, when his tenure ended last year. For lack of alternative, his job — usually held by Christian — was taken over “temporarily” by a Shiite Muslim. Under no circumstances did Gagegea want that repeated at Army Command.
His rivals in the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) were strictly opposed to Joseph Aoun, whether as president or army commander, claiming that he had been unfaithful to President Michel Aoun.
Defence Minister Maurice Salem, a member of the FPM, had even toyed with the idea of rejecting an extension by naming his own army commander, a Doomsday Scenario that would have created duel and conflicting leadership of the armed forces, plunging the country into more political and administrative chaos. The FPM were talked into shelving that option, however, and Aoun’s term was extended through parliament in December. An angry Gibran Bassil took the matter to the Constitutional Court of Lebanon while Hezbollah played along, pretending to oppose the move but behind closed doors, they did not mind it. Hezbollah MPs simply walked out on the parliamentary session without vetoing it, allowing the extension to pass, believing that this will dilute Aoun’s chances at becoming president, thus automatically raising those of their candidate, Suleiman Frangieh.
Frangieh remains a polarising figure, backed wholeheartedly by Hasan Nasrallah and Nabih Berri, while opposed — for totally different reasons — by Gibran Bassil and Samir Gagegea. Bassil is now saying that he won’t sign off the vacancies at the Military Council, before there is consensus on the presidency, a position that is backed by the Maronite Church.
The Military Council vacancies
Bassil believes that he has already given way too many concessions, after putting off his own ambition at becoming president to replace his father-in-law. He is now striving to fill at least one of the three vacancies at the Military Council — that of chief inspector — with one of his favourites.
It’s a post traditionally reserved for a Greek Orthodox Christian and Bassil wants to name Mansour Nabhan for the job, who is presently bureau chief to Defence Minister Saleem. Now firmly back in power for twelve months, Joseph Aoun is obstructing all his ambitions, rejecting Mabhan and nominating his own pick, Brigadier General Fadi Makhoul. As for the director of administrative affairs, the name making the rounds is Riad Alam, presently first director to the director of intelligence. Meanwhile, the post of army chief-of-staff seems reserved for Brigadier General Hassan Awdeh, a favourite of Druze leader Walid Jumblatt. But in Lebanon, nothing is settled before everything is settled and nothing seems even remotely close to being settled, certainly not today with the Gaza war entering its fourth month. Hezbollah is too busy with its side of the border. They have made it loud and clear that everything is hold until that conflict comes to a close. Meanwhile, the entire country stands in political paralysis, still plagued by chronic electricity shortages, a duel financial and economic meltdown, plenty of unsolicited arms, and a vacant seat at Baabda Palace. The current premier, Najib Mikati, is in caretaker mode and constitutionally incapable of taking strategic discussions related to reforms in the financial sector in order for the country to be eligible for a loan by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). And if there is no money in the pipeline, unemployment will remain high and so will the country’s brain drain and monetary collapse. There won’t be a full-fledge constitutional cabinet, however, not anytime soon, and no president, until the Gaza War ends. And this means — by default — that there won’t be any appointments at the Military Council.
**Sami Moubayed is a historian and former Carnegie scholar. He is also author of the best-seller Under the Black Flag: At the frontier of the New Jihad.

Lebanon, Iran, and Forms of Solidarity with Gaza
Hazem Saghieh/Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper/January 23/2024
After many Lebanese officials voiced similar positions, Prime Minister Najib Mikati took things further than his colleagues and seemed less embarrassed about his embarrassing position. Besides implicitly acknowledging that Hezbollah is the actual negotiator at the table in which the situation in Lebanon and its future are being discussed, Mikati echoed the party’s theory about linking developments in Lebanon to developments in Gaza.
Fear of death and destruction, which is justified, was not the only reason that broad segments of the population met his rhetoric with indignation, nor was the fact that he ignored those segments and sidelined their opinions and sensitivities regarding a matter of life and death. In addition to both, there is a history of “linking” that has cost and continues to cost the Lebanese dearly.
Indeed, since the mid-1960s, Lebanon has been linked to Palestinian militancy, with the 1969 Cairo Agreement granting this link “legal” justification. Successive wars erupted as a result, culminating in the Israeli invasion of 1982.
After that, with Lebanon under the influence of the Syrian police state and with Hezbollah’s power growing, Hafez al-Assad came out with his famous theories about the shared destiny and path of "one people in two countries." Once again, disasters whose repercussions continue to reverberate, and whose consequences continue to add up, ensued. Mind you, Assad’s theories did nothing to help the Palestinians and their cause, however one interprets that cause; rather, these theories went hand in hand with policies that wreaked havoc on the Palestinians in Lebanon.
Today, with the “unity of arenas,” we are looking at one people in five or six countries that supposedly share the same path and destiny, but instead of being led by Damascus, this time, they are led by Tehran.
The most dangerous aspect of all of that might be this nihilistic - militia perspective that is being broadly promoted in some environments. This view makes light of doing away with states, borders, and national sovereignty, not to mention the interests and opinions of the population. It is an idea that can be partially traced back to an imperial consciousness that preceded the emergence of modern states.
At that time, for example, many “mujahideen” who did not recognize borders emerged, going from Syria to fight in Iraq or from Lebanon to fight in Syria or Palestine... It is obvious that this is no longer part of the global zeitgeist, just as the mood of the times is no longer favorable to the emergence of forces like the “International Brigades,” the 40,000 volunteers who fought in the Spanish civil war of the 1930s. Nowadays, a group like ISIS has been left to present the perfect image of pasting everything on everything else over a geographical area that “unified” western Iraq and eastern Syria.
One consequence of the times and its novelty is that religious, national, and ideological wars have become a thing of the past, and with them, so has the epic image of “nations,” “peoples,” or “masses” rising up as one in defense of a cause, be it just or unjust. The consolidation of states and societies has given rise to a clear distinction between transnational moral and humanitarian solidarity, like that of the people around the world expressing their solidarity with Gaza or with victimized groups like the women of Afghanistan, and political solidarity that goes as far as direct military intervention, which is now contingent on a particular country whose parties are drawn together by a life cycle and common interests.
Today, we see this distinction between degrees of engagement even among the Palestinians themselves, depending on their different circumstances. The West Bank, for example, with the exception of pockets here and there, did not take its solidarity so far as to announce a mass insurgency, to say nothing about the Arab population inside Israel. As for those searching for epics “between the Atlantic and the Gulf,” or in the vast “Muslim lands,” their disappointment with the times turns them back cursing their luck and carrying crushing frustrations.
On the other hand, there is good reason to be extremely skeptical about the meaning of solidarity with Gaza as it is expressed by today’s solidarity specialists. It does not take a genius to refute, based on knowledge and experience, the prevailing militant narrative about these new solidarity experts.
The Houthis’ social environment in Yemen had sided with Imam Al-Badr and against Nasserism and Arab nationalism in the Yemeni civil war of the 1960s, at a time when the slogan of liberating Palestine had been tied exclusively to Nasser. As for the Shiite parties in Iraq, their social environment launched attacks of retribution against the Palestinians in Iraq after 2003, because they considered them to be Saddamists and Baathists. Meanwhile, the environment of Lebanese Hezbollah crystallized politically through its clashes with Palestinian armed groups in the 1960s and 1970s, before it wiped out the Lebanese affiliated with those armed groups.
That is not to criticize or glorify those past choices, but to ask by what miracle that their descendants became “enamored of Palestine”? In all likelihood, they have fallen under the spell of Iran, not Palestine.
Using Gaza as a pretext, what they want is to turn their countries into militias and impose their control over their societies and central authorities. They want to turn their countries into part of Iran’s imperial domain, and of course to cast as a traitor anyone who does not buy into this hypocrisy in the name of Gaza, or who refuses to exchange his homeland and patriotism for Iran. In turn, the latter acts in solidarity through Arabs bodies, countries, and societies, and it avenges Gaza in Iraqi Kurdistan and Idlib, or on the border with Pakistan, while Gaza’s fate is left to God.

Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on January 23-24/2024
Israel says 24 soldiers killed in deadliest day of ground war
Associated Press/January 23/2024
Twenty-four soldiers were killed in the Gaza Strip in the deadliest attack on Israel's forces since the Oct. 7 Hamas raid, the military said Tuesday, a major setback that could add to mounting calls for a cease-fire. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to press ahead until Israel crushes the ruling Hamas militant group and wins the freedom of over 100 hostages held captive in Gaza. But Israelis are increasingly divided on the question of whether it's possible to do either, and large numbers of Israeli casualties have pressured Israel's government to halt past military operations. A senior Egyptian official said Israel has proposed a two-month cease-fire in which the hostages would be freed in exchange for the release of Palestinians imprisoned by Israel and top Hamas leaders in Gaza would be allowed to relocate to other countries. The official, who was not authorized to brief media and spoke on condition of anonymity, said Hamas rejected the proposal and is insisting that no more hostages will be released until Israel ends its offensive and withdraws from Gaza. Israel's government declined to comment on the talks. The official said Egypt and Qatar, which have brokered past agreements between Israel and Hamas, were developing a multistage proposal to try and bridge the gaps. On Monday, Israeli reservists were preparing explosives to demolish two buildings in central Gaza on when a militant fired a rocket-propelled grenade at a tank nearby. The blast triggered the explosives, causing both two-story buildings to collapse on the soldiers inside. Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said it was a "difficult and painful morning," but that Israel was committed to pressing ahead. "This war will determine the future of Israel for decades to come, and the fall of soldiers is a requirement to achieve the goals of the war," he wrote on X, formerly known as Twitter.
Families of the hostages and many of their supporters have called for Israel to reach a cease-fire deal, saying that time is running out to bring the hostages home alive. On Monday, dozens of hostages' relatives stormed a parliamentary committee meeting, demanding a deal to win their loved ones' release. Israel launched its offensive after Hamas crossed the border Oct. 7, killed over 1,200 people and abducted some 250 others. More than 100 were released in November in exchange for a weeklong cease-fire and the release of 240 Palestinians imprisoned by Israel. The offensive has caused widespread destruction, displaced an estimated 85% of Gaza's population and left over 25,000 Palestinians dead, according to health officials in the Hamas-run territory. The United Nations and international aid agencies say the fighting has caused a humanitarian disaster, with a quarter of Gaza's 2.3 million people facing starvation. The war has heightened regional tensions, with Iran-backed groups in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen attacking United States and Israeli targets in support of Palestinians. The U.S. and Britain launched another wave of strikes Monday against the Houthi rebels in Yemen, who have targeted international shipping in the Red Sea in what they portray as a blockade of Israel.
DEADLY FIGHTING IN THE CENTER AND SOUTH
Hamas is believed to have suffered heavy losses but has continued to put up stiff resistance in the face of one of the deadliest air and ground offensives in recent history. Militants are still battling Israeli forces across the territory and launching rockets into Israel. The attack that killed the soldiers occurred some 600 meters (yards) from the border in Maghazi, one of three built-up refugee camps in central Gaza dating back to the 1948 war surrounding Israel's creation. Ground operations have been focused on the camps, as well as the southern city of Khan Younis, after Israel claimed to have largely defeated Hamas in northern Gaza in operations that caused widespread destruction to that part of the territory, including Gaza City. Dozens of Palestinians were killed Monday in heavy fighting in Khan Younis, where people dug graves in the courtyard of the city's Nasser Hospital as staff struggled to deal with the large number of wounded people, including children. Gaza's internet and phone networks collapsed again Monday for the 10th time during the war, posing another challenge for first responders and making it impossible for people to reach loved ones in different parts of the territory. Israel believes Hamas commanders may be hiding in vast tunnel complexes beneath Khan Younis, the hometown of the group's top leader in Gaza, Yehya Sinwar, whose location is unknown. Hamas leaders are also believed to be using hostages as human shields, further complicating any rescue efforts.
PRESSURE FOR A CEASE-FIRE
The growing death toll and dire humanitarian situation have led to increasing international pressure on Israel to scale back the offensive and agree to a pathway for the creation of a Palestinian state after the war. The United States, which has provided crucial military aid for the offensive, has joined those calls. But Netanyahu, whose popularity has plummeted since Oct. 7 and whose governing coalition is beholden to far-right parties, has rebuffed both demands. Instead, he has said Israel will need to expand operations and eventually take over the Gaza side of the border with Egypt, where hundreds of thousands of Palestinians who have fled from other areas are packed into overflowing U.N.-run shelters and sprawling tent camps. That drew an angry protest from Egypt's government, which rejected Israeli allegations that Hamas smuggles in weapons across the heavily guarded frontier. Diaa Rashwan, head of Egypt's State Information Service, said Monday that any Israeli move to occupy the border area would "lead to a serious threat" to relations between the two countries, which signed a landmark peace treaty over four decades ago. Egypt is also deeply concerned about any potential influx of Palestinian refugees into its Sinai Peninsula. Rashwan said Egypt was in full control of the border after taking a number of measures in recent years, including the creation of a 5-kilometer (3-mile) buffer zone and the construction of barriers above and below ground. Egypt "is capable of defending its interests and sovereignty over its land and borders, and will not mortgage it in the hands of a group of extremist Israeli leaders who seek to drag the region into a state of conflict and instability," Rashwan said.

Israeli says its forces have encircled Khan Younis city in south Gaza
Associated Press/January 23/2024
The Israeli military said in a statement Tuesday that its forces have encircled the southern Gaza city of Khan Younis. The territory’s second largest city has seen heavy fighting in recent days, with dozens of Palestinians killed and wounded.
Israeli officials have said top Hamas leaders may be hiding in tunnels under the city. Khan Younis is the hometown of Yehya Sinwar, Hamas’ top leader in Gaza, whose whereabouts are unknown.

Israel proposes pause in fighting as part of hostage deal: Axios
Agence France Presse/January 23/2024
Israel has proposed to Hamas via Qatari and Egyptian mediators a pause in fighting of up to two months as part of a deal to free all the hostages being held in Gaza, the U.S. news site Axios reported. The report, citing unnamed Israeli officials, said the deal would take place in multiple stages, the first of which would see the release of women, men over 60 and those in critical medical condition. Subsequent phases would involve the release of women soldiers, younger civilian men, male soldiers and the bodies of dead hostages. The officials said the deal would also see the release of an as yet undetermined number of Palestinian prisoners being held in Israel, but not all of them. The proposal does not include promises to end the war, but it would involve Israeli troops reducing their presence in major cities in Gaza and gradually allowing residents to return to the territory's devastated north. The officials said the deal was expected to take around two months to implement. Israeli outlet Ynet also reported on the proposal, citing unnamed sources, and said Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had alluded to it in a meeting with hostages' families on Monday. News of the proposal comes as U.S. media said the White House's coordinator for the Middle East, Brett McGurk, was due in the region for meetings in Egypt and Qatar aimed at securing a new hostage exchange deal. About 250 hostages were taken during Hamas's bloody October 7 attacks, and Israel says around 132 remain in Gaza. That includes the bodies of at least 28 dead hostages, according to an AFP count based on Israeli data. The October 7 attacks resulted in the deaths of about 1,140 people in Israel, mostly civilians, according to official Israeli figures. In response, Israel launched a relentless offensive that has killed at least 25,295 people in Gaza, around 70 percent of them women, children and adolescents, according to Gaza's health ministry.

Netanyahu under pressure over Israel troop losses, hostages
AFP/January 23, 2024
JERUSALEM: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces a mounting crisis after Israel’s worst day of troop losses in the Gaza war as well as growing protests over his failure to bring hostages back. The military’s strategy in the Palestinian territory is under intense scrutiny following the death of 24 troops on Monday, Israel’s biggest one-day loss since its ground offensive in Gaza started in late October. Among those killed were 21 reservists, who died in a single incident. The incident, which saw rocket-propelled grenade fire hit a tank and two buildings the soldiers were trying to blow up, was deemed a “disaster” by Netanyahu. Emmanuel Navon, a lecturer at Tel Aviv University, told AFP the troop losses “affect everybody, because almost everybody in the country has a son or brother or a relative (fighting in Gaza).”Israelis would now be increasingly asking “what is the strategy... Do we really keep going until we finish Hamas?,” he added. At the same time, splits have emerged in Netanyahu’s war cabinet following protests in Tel Aviv and outside his Jerusalem home, where relatives of hostages staged a rally Monday chanting “everybody and now” to urge the return of captives. “The current mood in the war cabinet is very bad,” said Julia Elad-Strenger, a lecturer at Bar-Ilan University near Tel Aviv. Netanyahu’s steadfast vow to eliminate the Palestinian militant group Hamas in response to the October 7 attack is increasingly seen within the cabinet as incompatible with returning hostages held in Gaza, experts told AFP. Two members of the five-person war cabinet, Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot, have rejected Netanyahu’s stance that only military pressure on Hamas will allow the return of hostages, the experts said. “According to Netanyahu there can be no victory with Hamas left standing, according to Gantz and Eisenkot there can be no victory with hostages lost,” said Reuven Hazan, a professor of political science at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.
Eisenkot, whose son died fighting in Gaza, gave an interview last week in which he split from Netanyahu’s long-held position. “It is impossible to return the hostages alive in the near future without an agreement (with Hamas),” he told Israeli broadcaster Channel 12. Netanyahu has vowed “total victory” over Hamas in response to the unprecedented attack by its fighters on October 7 that resulted in the deaths of about 1,140 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures. The militants seized about 250 hostages and Israel says around 132 remain in besieged Gaza, including the bodies of at least 28 dead hostages, according to an AFP tally based on Israeli data. In response to the attack, Israel has launched a relentless offensive in Gaza that has killed at least 25,490 people, around 70 percent of them women, young children and adolescents, according to the latest toll issued Tuesday by Gaza’s health ministry. Netanyahu has rejected suggestions that his government should hold another round of talks with Hamas to reach a similar deal to one struck in November that led to the release of 80 Israeli hostages.
Under that deal, brokered by Qatar, the United States and Egypt, a seven-day humanitarian pause was agreed that allowed aid deliveries into Gaza, while hundreds of Palestinian prisoners were released in exchange for hostages.
The Israeli premier doubled down on his refusal to enter talks with Hamas on Sunday, saying: “The conditions demanded by Hamas demonstrate a simple truth: there is no substitute for victory.”Netanyahu said Hamas had set conditions for the release of more hostages that included an end to the war, withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza and guarantees that the group will stay in power. Experts said they expected the Israeli premier to continue the war as a tactic to remain in power, even as pressure to change course mounts. “I think he has made a decision to keep this war going and not just for his political interests, but endless war is his strategy in general,” said Mairav Zonszein, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group. “As far as Netanyahu is concerned, if the war lasts beyond 2024 that’s better for him politically because it gets October 7 further away from us and it gives him a chance to rebuild,” said Hazan of Hebrew University. “Right now he is at the worst point in his entire career,” said Hazan.

Egypt warns Israel not to seize control of land that separates them
Associated Press/January/23/2024
Egypt has warned Israel that any attempt to seize security control of the strip of land that separates Gaza and Egypt will result in a “serious threat” to relations between the neighboring states. The Philadelphi corridor is a 14-kilometer (nine-mile) -long slither of land that separates Egypt from Gaza. “It must be strictly emphasized that any Israeli move in this direction will lead to a serious threat to Egyptian-Israeli relations,” Diaa Rashwan, head of Egypt’s State Information Service, said in an online statement Monday. Israeli leaders have talked about taking control of the corridor to prevent possible weapons smuggling into Gaza. Egypt fears that a military operation on the border could push large numbers of Palestinians into its territory. Rashwan said Gaza’s western border was secure and that Israeli claims that weapons were being smuggled from Egypt into Gaza were false. The war has greatly tested relations between Israel and Egypt. Troop deployments on either side of the Egypt-Gaza border are regulated in bilateral agreements between Israel and Egypt. The two countries have maintained diplomatic ties since 1980, with Egypt having brokered a number of cease-fire deals during recent conflicts in Gaza. Throughout the current war, Egypt has accused Israel of plotting to nullify Palestinian demands for statehood by driving Palestinians from Gaza into Egypt. Israel denies this is part of its plan.

Egypt confirms Israel has proposed a 2-month ceasefire
Associated Press/January/23/2024
A senior Egyptian official says Israel has proposed a two-month cease-fire in which Hamas would release Israeli hostages in exchange for the release of Palestinians imprisoned by Israel. Under the proposal, Yehya Sinwar and other top Hamas leaders in Gaza would be allowed to relocate to other countries. The official, who was not authorized to brief media and spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity, said Hamas has rejected the proposal. The militant group is insisting on a permanent cease-fire before any further release of hostages. Israel’s leaders have thus far ruled that out. The official said Hamas leaders have also refused to leave Gaza and are demanding that Israel fully withdraw from the territory and allow Palestinians to return to their homes. The official said Egypt and Qatar, which have brokered past agreements between Israel and Hamas, are developing a multi-stage proposal to try to bridge the gaps. The proposal would include ending the war, releasing the hostages and putting forth a vision for resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Israeli media have also reported on the diplomatic efforts, describing the same general outline of a potential agreement. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office declined to comment on any possible talks, citing potential risks to the hostages. Qatari officials did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the proposal. White House senior adviser Brett McGurk is in the region this week to meet with Egyptian and Qatari officials to discuss hostage negotiations. The White House has also declined comment. In Washington, National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said Monday that a temporary pause in fighting was critical to winning the release of more hostages. “You can’t enact safe passage for hostages out of a danger zone if people are shooting at each other,” Kirby said. “We don’t support a general cease-fire, which is usually put in place in the expectation that you’re going to end a conflict.”

Netanyahu: Loss of 21 Soldiers a ‘Toughest Day’ in the War
Daily Star/January/23/2024
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has described the recent loss of 21 Israeli soldiers in Gaza as “one of the most difficult days” since the war began. Netanyahu expressed his grief for the fallen soldiers and offered his condolences to their families, stating on X, “I mourn for our fallen heroic soldiers. I hug the families in their time of need and we all pray for the peace of our wounded.”The tragic incident, which marks the most significant loss of Israeli troops in a single event since the conflict with Hamas started, occurred after a rocket-propelled grenade (RPG) struck a tank guarding Israeli forces. This led to the collapse of two two-story buildings onto the soldiers, as detailed by Israel Defense Forces (IDF) spokesperson Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari in a statement on Tuesday. Netanyahu announced that the IDF has initiated an investigation into the incident to learn from it and to enhance the safety of Israeli soldiers. He emphasized Israel’s determination to continue its military efforts, stating, “We must draw the necessary lessons and do everything to keep our warriors safe,” and affirmed, “Israel will not stop fighting until the absolute victory.”

Khan Younis Encircled by IDF; Hospital Exodus Unfolds
Daily Star/January/23/2024
Israeli forces have encircled the city of Khan Younis in southern Gaza amid escalating military actions. This situation has caused widespread panic among hundreds of displaced individuals currently sheltering on the grounds of local hospitals.
The Palestine Red Crescent Society (PRCS) reports a state of alarm among people at its headquarters and at Al-Amal Hospital due to the ongoing Israeli bombardment. As the intense Israeli military offensive in the western part of Khan Younis continues, it is expected to last for several more days, based on information from a knowledgeable source. Israel, meanwhile, is grappling with the loss of at least 21 soldiers in Gaza, marking the most significant single-day casualty count for Israeli troops in the territory since the conflict with Hamas began.
Recent developments include:
– **Khan Younis Assault**: The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) report that their ground troops, in coordination with the Israeli air force, have killed “dozens of terrorists” in the past 24 hours in and around Khan Younis. This military operation has severely affected the city’s medical facilities.
– **Escaping Conflict**: Residents like Ahmad Nassem from Khan Younis’s Al-Amal neighborhood are attempting to evacuate amidst intense fighting. The Hamas-run health ministry in Gaza warns that both Al-Amal and Nasser hospitals are facing grave threats, with building structures at risk due to ongoing shelling.
– **Israeli Military Losses**: The IDF confirmed the death of at least 21 soldiers following an incident where a rocket-propelled grenade (RPG) struck a tank protecting Israeli forces, leading to the collapse of two nearby buildings. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described the day of the incident as “one of the most difficult days” since the war began and announced an IDF investigation into the event.
– **Action Against Houthis**: Following further strikes against Houthi targets in Yemen by the United States and the United Kingdom, the Houthi rebel group has warned of retaliation. British Foreign Secretary David Cameron stated the joint efforts to diminish the Houthis’ military capabilities would persist, as disruptions in the Red Sea navigation continue.
– **Ceasefire Negotiations**: Israel has reportedly proposed allowing senior Hamas leaders to leave Gaza as part of a potential ceasefire agreement. Axios also reported that Israel offered a two-month ceasefire in a prospective hostage deal. However, an Israeli official clarified to CNN that any ceasefire-for-hostages offer is still not a concrete proposal. – **Gaza’s Humanitarian Crisis**: The UN Special Rapporteur on the Right to Food has accused Israel of destroying Gaza’s food system, causing widespread hunger. Additionally, environmental conditions in the southern city of Rafah are deteriorating, with piles of solid waste, flowing sewage, and air pollution creating severe health risks.

Israel Offers Ceasefire in Hostage Deal Talks, Axios Reports
Daily Star/January/23/2024
Israel has reportedly offered a truce to Hamas, spanning up to two months, as a part of a hostage release agreement, as per a report from Axios. This information, obtained from unnamed Israeli officials, suggests that the deal would be executed in several phases. Initially, it would involve freeing women, men over 60, and those with critical medical conditions from Gaza. The subsequent stages of the deal would see the release of women soldiers, younger civilian men, male soldiers, and the remains of deceased hostages. Additionally, the plan includes freeing a certain number of Palestinian prisoners from Israeli custody, though not all. This proposal doesn’t guarantee an end to the war. However, it involves a reduction of Israeli military presence in major Gaza cities and a gradual return of residents to the north of the territory, which has been heavily impacted by the conflict.
The implementation of this deal is expected to take about two months. Israeli news source Ynet, citing anonymous sources, also reported on this proposal, noting that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu mentioned it in a recent meeting with families of the hostages. This development coincides with reports of the White House’s Middle East coordinator, Brett McGurk, visiting Egypt and Qatar to discuss a potential new hostage exchange agreement. During Hamas’s attacks on October 7, approximately 250 hostages were taken, with around 132 reportedly still remaining in Gaza. This includes at least 28 deceased hostages, based on an AFP tally using Israeli data. The October 7 attacks resulted in roughly 1,140 deaths in Israel, predominantly civilians. In response, Israel’s offensive in Gaza has led to at least 25,295 deaths, with about 70 percent being women, children, and adolescents, according to the health ministry in Gaza.

War Continues: Israel at a crossroads after recent attack amid Israeli public's fury
LBCI/January/23/2024
Recent events on Monday reveal that 24 Israeli officers and soldiers died in Gaza as two buildings designated for reserve forces within the Israeli army were targeted for demolition. The structures were destroyed when two RPG missiles launched by the Resistance struck the area where the buildings were rigged with explosives, resulting in the soldiers being buried under the rubble. This marks one of the deadliest incidents for Israelis since October 7, leaving Israel at a crossroads—between continuing the war or shifting towards a political solution before becoming entangled in the impasse of Gaza. Since the operation unfolded, the War Cabinet and the expanded Security Cabinet have continuously evaluated the situation. The extensive list of casualties has ignited anger among the Israeli public, divided between those who view the operation as the beginning of the end of the war and those who consider it a costly venture.
Meanwhile, Benjamin Netanyahu, Yoav Gallant, and Benny Gantz sent a unified message to the Israeli people, highlighting the continuation of the war despite the internal dilemmas among them. On the battlefield, the army announced progress in the third stage of the war, successfully encircling Khan Yunis from all directions, considering it a key hub for Hamas' tunnel network and its leaders, with Yahya Sinwar at the forefront. Amidst the Gaza operations and the tripartite message, the northern region declared a state of extreme emergency due to Hezbollah's targeting of several areas in Israel, notably the sensitive military base, Meron.

Path to peace: EU presents long-term peace plan for Israeli-Palestinian resolution
LBCI/January/23/2024
In parallel with the intensity of the ongoing battles in the southern Gaza Strip, international efforts are underway to halt the war and move towards a political solution. Following the 90-day plan proposed by the Qatar-Egypt-US trio, which aims to cease hostilities in exchange for the release of Hamas-held prisoners and initiate normalization talks with several Arab nations, the European Union now presents a long-term plan paving the way for a comprehensive solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Prepared by the EU's Foreign Policy Chief Josep Borrell, the ten-point plan outlines the establishment of a "preparatory peace conference" to be held as soon as possible, bringing together key actors such as the EU, the US, Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the Arab League, and the United Nations. Participants will maintain constant communication with Israeli and Palestinian officials, who will not initially sit face-to-face. The talks will represent Gaza and the West Bank, with the Palestinian Authority and the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) participating instead of the designated "terrorist organization" Hamas, as classified by the EU and the US. The plan also calls for forming working groups and developing an "initial framework" for a peace plan within one year. Once ready, the Palestinian and Israeli sides will negotiate the terms directly. Simultaneously, participants in the conference are urged to alleviate the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, secure the release of Israeli hostages, prevent regional escalation, bolster the democratic legitimacy of the Palestinian Authority, support Gaza's reconstruction, and ultimately, establish an independent Palestinian state. The overarching goal is to normalize relations between Israel and the Arab world, ensuring long-term security in the region. In conclusion, the EU, along with the international community, is making concerted efforts to reach a resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Will they succeed?

UN chief warns that Israel's rejection of a two-state solution threatens global peace
UNITED NATIONS (AP)January 23, 2024
The United Nations chief warned Israel on Tuesday that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu 's rejection of a two-state solution will indefinitely prolong a conflict that is threatening global peace and emboldening extremists everywhere. In his toughest language yet on the Israeli-Hamas war, Secretary-General Antonio Guterres told a ministerial meeting of the U.N. Security Council that “the right of the Palestinian people to build their own fully independent state must be recognized by all, and a refusal to accept the two-state solution by any party must be firmly rejected.” The alternative of a one-state solution “with such a large number of Palestinians inside without any real sense of freedom, rights and dignity … will be inconceivable,” he said.Guterres also warned that the risks of regional escalation of the conflict “are now becoming a reality,” pointing to Lebanon, Yemen, Syria, Iraq and Pakistan. He urged all parties “to step back from the brink and to consider the horrendous costs” of a wider war. Netanyahu’s rejection of a Palestinian state in any postwar scenario opened a wide rift with Israel’s closest ally, the United States, which says the war must lead to negotiations for a two-state solution where Israel and the Palestinians can live side-by-side in peace. That goal is supported by countries around the world, as ministers and ambassadors reiterated Tuesday. The U.N. secretary-general also repeated his longstanding call for a humanitarian cease-fire — an appeal supported by almost all nations. But Israel’s U.N. Ambassador Gilad Erdan again rejected a cease-fire, saying Hamas, which carried out a brutal attack on southern Israel on Oct. 7, is committed to attacking again and destroying Israel, and a halt to fighting will only allow the militants “to regroup and rearm.” He urged the Security Council to “eliminate the root” of the conflict, which he said was Iran. Erdan strongly criticized the presence of Iran’s foreign minister at the council meeting, saying the country provides weapons to Hamas, to Hezbollah fighters in Lebanon and Houthi militants in Yemen, “and soon these acts will be carried out under a nuclear umbrella.”Iran has long denied seeking nuclear weapons and insists its nuclear program is entirely for peaceful purposes. But the U.N. nuclear watchdog has warned that Iran has enough enriched uranium for nuclear bombs if it chose to build them.
Riyad al-Maliki, the Palestinian foreign minister, said Israel is carrying out “the most savage bombing campaign" since World War II, which is leading to famine and the massive displacement of civilians. “This is an assault of atrocities,” which has destroyed countless innocent lives, he said. The Health Ministry in Hamas-ruled Gaza says more than 25,000 Palestinians have been killed since the start of the war, which has caused widespread destruction, displaced an estimated 85% of Gaza’s 2.3 million people, and left one-quarter facing starvation. Israel began its military campaign in response to the Oct. 7 attacks in which militants from the enclave killed around 1,200 people in Israel and took about 250 hostages. Al-Maliki said Israel doesn't see the Palestinians as a people and a “political reality to coexist with, but as a demographic threat to get rid of through death, displacement or subjugation.” He said those are the choices Israel has offered Palestinians, calling them tantamount to “genocide, ethnic cleansing or apartheid.”Al-Maliki said there are only two future paths: One starts with Palestinian freedom and leads to Mideast peace and security, and the other denies freedom and "dooms our region to further bloodshed and endless conflict.”

Very little aid reaching northern Gaza - WFP
WFP/Tue, January 23, 2024
STORY: Israel's offensive launched in the wake of a deadly rampage by Hamas militants in southern Israel on Oct. 7 has displaced most of Gaza's 2.3 million population and caused acute shortages of food, water and medical supplies.
At least 25,295 people in Gaza have been killed, according to Palestinian authorities, with thousands more feared buried under the rubble of a coastal strip largely laid to waste. Abeer Etefa, WFP spokesperson for the Middle East, said that there was a "systematic limitation on getting into the north of Gaza, not just for the WFP."The U.N. humanitarian office this month said Israeli authorities were systematically denying it access to northern Gaza to deliver aid and this had significantly hindered the humanitarian operation there. Israel has previously denied blocking the entry of aid.
Since the start of hostilities, aid deliveries to northern Gaza have been limited, and the area was cut off altogether from external aid for weeks earlier in the conflict.

Iran's top diplomat says risk of war in the Middle East 'has gone up,' blames US
ABC News/January 23, 2024
The chances that flashpoints in the Middle East will ignite a conflict that engulfs the entire region have increased, Iran's top diplomat told ABC News Chief Global Affairs Correspondent Martha Raddatz in an exclusive interview Tuesday. "The scope of the war has become wider. This means that the danger of having a wider war in the region has gone up," Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said, blaming the U.S and Israel for the escalating tensions. "If the U.S. today stops its backing -- logistical and weapons, political and media support -- of the genocidal war launched by Israel, then I can assure you that [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu will not survive for 10 minutes," he asserted. "So the key to solve the problem is in Washington before it is in Tel Aviv." "We consider Hamas a Palestinian liberation group that is standing against occupation," Amir-Abdollahian said. "Of course, we never approved the killing of women and children, civilians anywhere in the world. We never support it." Raddatz also questioned the foreign minister on Iran's backing of the Houthis -- the Yemeni rebel group responsible for dozens of recent attacks on vessels in the Red Sea, including U.S. ships.
The Pentagon has shared evidence of what it says is Iran's weapons smuggling network that supplies the Houthis, including details of a commando mission in the Arabian Sea that successfully intercepted Iranian-made missile components destined for Yemen but resulted in the death of two Navy SEALS.
But Amir-Abdollahian dismissed the allegations, baselessly accusing the U.S. military of fabricating the information. "Mostly, this is a TV show," he asserted, even though the United Nations and other foreign governments have documented similar arms transfers from Iran. While the Oct. 7 attacks and its tumultuous aftermath have renewed fears of direct combat between the U.S. and Iran, the two have teetered on the brink of war before in recent years. Hostilities between the countries hit a zenith in 2020, when then-President Donald Trump ordered an air strike that killed Qasem Soleimani, the leader of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Quds Force and a man the U.S. says responsible for the deaths of hundreds American and coalition service members and was actively plotting to kill more.
In the aftermath of Soleimani's killing, Iranian officials vowed they would eventually exact revenge. "That was a big, big mistake made by Trump. That is not something that we will be able to forget," Amir-Abdollahian said, adding that Tehran still wanted to see "all the people involved" in the strike "brought to justice.""What does that mean?" Raddatz asked. "Does that mean killed?" "Justice will rule on it," he responded. However, Amir-Abdollahian argued that whether Trump won or lost his bid for another term in the Oval Office would ultimately have little impact on the relationship between the U.S. and Iran. "Individuals are not important, what matters is the behavior of the government that takes the office.," he said. In the Middle East, Tehran wields much of its power through its vast web of proxies--an informal coalition terrorist organization like Hamas, the Houthis, Lebanon's Hezbollah, as well as paramilitary groups scattered through Iraq and Syria that are united by anti-Western and anti-Israeli sentiments. U.S. officials say Iran has significant influence over the network of militants that benefit from the country's financial and military support, but Tehran has consistently downplayed or denied the connections--insisting the country only wants to see peace across the Middle East. "Nobody is going to benefit from any war. We believe that the solution is never war," Amir-Abdollahian said. ABC News' Cindy Smith, Nate Luna and Christopher Boccia contributed to this report. Iran's top diplomat says risk of war in the Middle East 'has gone up,' blames US originally appeared on abcnews.go.com

NATO approves $1.2 billion for artillery
UPI/January 23, 2024
With Russia's invasion of Ukraine raging on in Europe, NATO announced on Tuesday that it has purchased $1.2 billion of artillery in conjunction with the NATO Support and Procurement Agency. The contracts included about 220,000 155-millimeter artillery shells, NATO said in a statement. NSPA has bought around $10 billion worth of ammunition since NATO signed its Defense Production Action Plan last July including $4 billion for 155-millimeter artillery, anti-tank guided missiles and tank ammunition. It also includes $5.5 billion for 1,000 Patriot missiles acquired by NATO members Germany, Netherlands, Romania and Span announced on Jan. 3. "This demonstrates that NATO's tried-and-tested structure for joint procurement is delivering," NATO's Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said during a news conference. "Russia's war in Ukraine has become a battle for ammunition so it is important that allies refill their own stocks, as we continue to support Ukraine." Russia has pounded Ukraine with a flurry of artillery since the start of the year, including more than 90 drones in a wide range of cities. The Ukraine military, though, has reported a high rate of success in shooting down a vast majority of the drones, boosting its air defense systems. "This week will also see the start of Exercise Steadfast Defender -- the largest NATO exercise in decades with approximately 90,000 forces from all 31 allies and Sweden," Stoltenberg said. "This Article 5 exercise is a clear demonstration of our transatlantic unity and strength and our determination to continue to do whatever is necessary to protect and defend each other."

Canada sending more equipment to Ukraine as full-scale war with Russia nears two-year mark
CBC/January 23, 2024
Canada is contributing another $35 million worth of military equipment to Ukraine as the embattled Eastern European country's allies meet to discuss its future needs, and as Russia's full invasion edges toward the two-year mark. Defence Minister Bill Blair, who participated in the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (UDCG) meeting via video link, said Canada is providing 10 Multirole Boats from Zodiac Hurricane Technologies, valued at approximately $20 million. The rigid hull inflatable boats (RHIBs) are a favourite of Canadian Special Forces for commando operations. The Department of National Defence (DND) says they also can be used for search and rescue, troop and cargo transport, surveillance and reconnaissance. Each boat has a sophisticated sensor, navigation and communications system, the department said in a media statement. The cost includes commercial training for the Ukrainian operators, as well as spares.
Blair also announced that Canada will pay for civilian instructors from Montreal-based Top Aces Inc. to train Ukrainian pilots to fly F-16s being donated by Norway, Denmark and the Netherlands. Canada does not operate the U.S.-manufactured F-16 but they are used by Top Aces, a private company that offers a wide range of fighter jet instruction. Blair said the use of Top Aces' aircraft for training is included in the $15 million training package. The first Canadian-sponsored classes begin next month and will last for a year. Canada is also donating English language training to Ukrainian Air Force personnel at the Canadian Forces Language School.
It's not known at this time what other members of the UDCG are donating. For the first time since U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin established the international group to support Ukraine in April 2022, the United States is hosting the monthly gathering without being able to contribute anything.
The Pentagon has run out of appropriation money and, for the time being, is unable to send the ammunition and missiles that Ukraine needs to fend off Russian forces. While waiting for Congress to pass a budget that might approve more money for Ukraine's fight, the U.S. will be looking to allies to bridge the gap.
"I urge this group to dig deep to provide Ukraine with more lifesaving ground-based air defence systems and interceptors," Austin said in opening remarks broadcast from his home, where he is still recuperating after prostate cancer surgery. The Canadian contribution came on the same day that NATO announced the signing of a major new investment agreement to produce artillery ammunition. The $1.2 billion US contract to make tens of thousands of artillery rounds is intended to replenish the dwindling stocks of NATO member countries as they supply ammunition to Ukraine. The contract will allow for the purchase of 220,000 rounds of 155-millimetre ammunition, the most sought-after artillery shell, according to NATO's support and procurement agency. It will allow allies to backfill their arsenals and provide Ukraine with more ammunition.

Syria says there were no grounds for Jordanian air strikes on its soil
AMMAN (Reuters)/, January 23, 2024
Syria said on Tuesday there was no justification for Jordanian air strikes on its territory that its neighbour said had targeted drug dealers whose border incursions posed a threat to Jordan's national security. Jordan has stepped up a campaign against drug traffickers after clashes last month with dozens of people it suspects of links to pro-Iranian militias carrying large hauls of narcotics over its border from Syria, along with arms and explosives. A deadly strike last Thursday, among several since last year on hideouts of drug dealers and warehouses linked to militias in Syria's south, killed 10 civilians, including children, according to regional intelligence sources corroborated by accounts of residents and witnesses. "The escalation that we have witnessed in the past few months," a Syrian foreign ministry statement said, "is not at all consistent with what was agreed upon from both sides." Two Jordanian officials, who asked not to be named, said civilians had not been targeted and that the strikes followed repeated warnings in high-level meetings with Syrian officials. They said the rise in incidents coincided with increasing attacks on U.S. bases in Kurdish-controlled northern Syria and in Iraq by pro-Iranian militias in solidarity with Palestinian militants fighting Israel's offensive in Gaza. Jordan's government, like its Western allies, says Lebanon's Iranian-backed Hezbollah group and other pro-Iranian militias who control much of southern Syria are behind the surge in drug and weapons smuggling. Iran and Hezbollah deny this, saying the accusations are part of a Western plot against them. Syria's government denies that its security and military forces work closely with Iranian-backed militias involved in drug trafficking. Jordanian officials say they have provided names of key drug dealers, manufacturing facilities and smuggling routes to Syrian authorities. "No real measure was taken to neutralise this threat and smuggling attempts have witnessed a dangerous increase in numbers," a foreign ministry statement said in response to the Syrian announcement. The kingdom expected Syria to take speedy and effective measures against those behind the smuggling operations, the Jordanian statement said. Supplies of a Syrian-made amphetamine known as captagon reaching Gulf Arab states via Jordan are worth billions of dollars a year and finance a host of pro-Iranian and pro-government militias spawned by more than a decade of conflict in Syria, according to U.S. and European officials. Both Washington and the European Union last year imposed sanctions on senior officials associated with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad for alleged involvement in captagon trade, which they say is also a financial lifeline for his inner circle. Assad's government denies any role in captagon trafficking. Some Jordanian officials say pro-Iranian militias in both Iraq and Syria are using the drug war to pile pressure on Jordan, a staunch U.S. ally that hosts hundreds of U.S. troops. Washington has given Jordan around $1 billion to bolster border security since Syria's civil war began in 2011, and has recently sent more military aid to that end, Western intelligence sources say.

US and UK Unleash Fresh Strikes on Houthi Sites in Yemen
Daily Star/January/23/2024
On Tuesday, the United Kingdom reiterated its commitment to impeding the capabilities of Yemen’s Houthi rebels to threaten Red Sea shipping, following recent joint airstrikes with the United States on the Iran-supported group. British Foreign Minister David Cameron, addressing broadcasters, emphasized the ongoing efforts to degrade the Houthis’ abilities to conduct such attacks, underscoring that their actions are met with decisive responses. He conveyed that both the UK and the US are firmly behind their words with actions. These latest airstrikes, conducted by the US and British militaries, targeted eight locations in Yemen used by the Houthis, marking the second time these allies have carried out coordinated strikes against the rebel group’s missile-launch capabilities. Yemen’s Houthi rebels warned on Tuesday of retaliation for the military strikes, with their spokesperson Yahya Saree stating on X (formerly Twitter) that 18 raids had been conducted in various provinces, including Sanaa, Hodeida, Taez, and Al-Bayda. Officials revealed that the US and UK employed Tomahawk missiles launched from warships and submarines, along with fighter jets, to destroy Houthi missile storage facilities, drones, and launchers. These officials, speaking anonymously, noted the involvement of Australia, Bahrain, Canada, and the Netherlands in the mission, providing intelligence and surveillance support. In their joint statement, the allied nations specified that the strikes focused on a Houthi underground storage site and locations related to their missile and air surveillance capabilities. They emphasized their goal to de-escalate tensions and restore stability in the Red Sea, warning the Houthis of continued defense against threats to vital maritime routes. The UK’s Ministry of Defense confirmed the participation of four Royal Air Force Typhoon jets, which attacked multiple military targets near Sanaa airfield with precision-guided bombs. According to Defense Secretary Grant Shapps, these strikes aimed to diminish Houthi capabilities, impacting their stockpiles and ability to threaten international trade.
A senior US military official reported that the strikes, involving 25 to 30 munitions, effectively hit multiple targets, including advanced weapons in an underground facility. This marked the first targeting of such advanced armaments. The official detailed that fighter jets from the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower aircraft carrier participated, alongside other naval vessels including the USS Gravely, USS Mason, and USS Philippine Sea. This operation follows a previous joint US and British military action against Houthi targets, part of an ongoing response to Houthi drone and missile attacks on commercial ships since the Israel-Hamas war began in October. The Houthi media office reported that the latest raids targeted various areas in Sanaa. Residents in southern Sanaa, including Jamal Hassan, reported nearby strikes, with an Associated Press journalist also confirming overhead aircraft. Al-Masirah, a Houthi-run news channel, identified specific strike locations in Sanaa, including al-Dailami Air Base, Sarif, and al-Hafa. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and US President Joe Biden had discussed the situation, agreeing on the necessity of targeted military actions to degrade Houthi capabilities. The recent series of allied attacks marks the eighth instance of US-led strikes on Houthi sites since January 12, following almost daily assaults on missile launchers. These rapid response missions target armed and ready-to-fire launchers, demonstrating an increased capability to monitor and strike militant activities in Yemen. Despite these retaliatory strikes, the Houthis have maintained their campaign against Red Sea shipping, with the broader regional war seemingly drawing closer. The Houthis claim their attacks target vessels linked to Israel or heading to Israeli ports in retaliation for Israeli military actions in Gaza. However, the validity of these claims has become increasingly dubious. The US and allies have warned of consequences for weeks, culminating in a final warning on January 3. Nevertheless, the Houthis have persisted in their attacks, occasionally targeting US Navy and US-owned ships, as well as a variety of commercial vessels. While the US has conducted most of the eight strike missions this month alone, joint operations with Britain have also taken place. Several of these strikes were in self-defense, targeting missiles poised for launch. The latest strike on Saturday disabled a Houthi anti-ship missile prepared for launch into the Gulf of Aden, as confirmed by Central Command. In addition to military actions, the Biden administration has re-designated the Houthis as a specially designated global terrorist group, aiming to cut off their financial support while ensuring continued humanitarian aid to Yemen.
US defense officials believe these strikes have weakened the Houthis’ weapons and strike capabilities. However, President Biden and others recognize that Iran’s support equips the Houthis to persist with their attacks. The Houthis, for their part, have expressed their determination to continue their assault. Following the first joint US and British attack, Houthi Foreign Ministry official Hussein al-Ezzi warned of significant consequences for the aggression. The ongoing conflict has prompted extraordinary measures to protect commercial vessels in the Red Sea through Operation Prosperity Guardian. This joint mission provides a protective shield for ships in this critical waterway, extending from the Suez Canal to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Approximately 400 commercial vessels navigate the southern Red Sea at any given time. The violence has led companies to reroute ships around Africa via the Cape of Good Hope, a longer and less efficient route.

Russia Denies Allegations of Deporting Ukrainian Children, Responds to UN Inquiry
LBCI/January 23/2024
Russia denied on Tuesday at the United Nations any "deportation" of thousands of Ukrainian children to its territory since the invasion of Ukraine. These accusations have been propagated by Kyiv, international courts, and non-governmental organizations. The UN Committee on the Rights of the Child, which is examining the Russian case within its regular meeting, called on Moscow on Monday to explain its position on "allegations of deportation." The head of the Russian delegation, Alexey Vovchenko, who is also the Deputy Minister of Labor and Social Protection, responded, stating that "since February 2022, the Russian Federation has not been involved in the deportation of Ukrainian citizens to its territory."

US defense secretary makes first public appearance, virtually, since hospitalization
Reuters/January 23/2024
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin made his first public appearance, virtually and from home since his secret hospitalization, during a meeting on Ukraine's military needs on Tuesday but skipped over prepared remarks that would have addressed his health. Austin, 70, was admitted to Walter Reed National Military Medical Center in Maryland on Dec. 22 to treat prostate cancer. He returned to the hospital on Jan. 1 due to complications, including a urinary tract infection. His hospitalization was not revealed until four days later, and the Pentagon did not specify why he was being treated until Jan. 9. Austin's failure to tell President Joe Biden he was hospitalized drew criticism from lawmakers and caught the White House by surprise. Austin appeared on the live stream for a few minutes as he made his opening remarks. Austin was sitting in front of a white wall with what appeared to be a security system keypad on his left and a Department of Defense seal on the right, with small US and Ukrainian flags on top of a printer next to it. While there was a slight break in the live stream, Austin did not address his health, even though the topic was in his prepared remarks.

Latest English LCCC  analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on January 23-24/2024
Iran on the Borders of Israel
Ghassan Charbel/Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper/January 23/2024
It is not simple for Israeli aircraft to destroy a building in Damascus where leaders from the Quds Force meet. It is not simple for the coffins of those who were targeted to return to Iran to join those who preceded them. Israel indeed carried out assassinations and attacks on Iranian territory itself, but it is also true that what comes after the Al-Aqsa Flood is not the same as before the operation.
Are we seeing the Iranian-Israeli conflict replace the Arab-Israeli conflict? Do we have to accept that we will live with the bloody and resounding strikes for a long time and that the key to the future of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is in Tehran? How can we talk about solutions if the Iranian leader expects the downfall of Israel in a period not exceeding three decades, and clocks have been set up in Tehran to count the remainder of the life of the “cancerous tumor”?
The Israeli raid on the Mezzeh area in Damascus is extremely dangerous and significant. Has Israel decided to invite Iran into a war in which the United States can only engage? Does Benjamin Netanyahu believe that there is no way out of the current impasse other than expanding the conflict, despite its risks and costs? It is clear that Iran does not want a large-scale war. It prefers to fight it in installments and phases through allies and proxies.
The US itself has been struggling for months to prevent the expansion of the war. But the conflict expanded, albeit at a reduced pace. There is the parallel war that Hezbollah is waging across southern Lebanon in increasing and decreasing doses. There is a war of missiles and Houthi drones in the Red Sea. There is also the war of expelling US forces from Iraq at the hands of Iraqi factions. The Mezzeh raid fueled tension on the Syrian front, despite its Russian and realistic conditions and controls.
There are new facts that must be observed in part of the Middle East. Suppose a successor to Netanyahu announces support for the “two-state solution.” It will certainly be conditional on full recognition of Israel’s right to exist. Can the Lebanese government, which is residing in Hezbollah’s custody, sign the recognition of Israel? Can the Syrian government recognize Israel, which will deprive Iran of the most important cards that facilitated its influence in the “Crescent of Resistance”? Can the Iraqi government recognize Israel after the law issued by the Iraqi parliament criminalizing any normalization?
Several scenes help us understand Israel’s role in reaching the current situation. In 1998, Palestinian-Israeli talks were held in Wye River, sponsored by President Bill Clinton. The session almost failed because Ariel Sharon wanted to make sure in advance that he would not have to shake hands with Yasser Arafat. As he entered the hall, Arafat greeted him “general to general” and extended his hand, but Sharon ignored the initiative and sat next to Benjamin Netanyahu.
When he assumed the premiership, he found pleasure in besieging Arafat and destroying his headquarters. Sharon’s behavior constituted the climax of political blindness. He was busy eliminating the man who opened the window for the Oslo Accords, accepting concessions that no one dared to accept.
But the major contribution to the drive toward disaster came from Netanyahu. He participated in closing the two windows that had been opened, namely the Oslo Agreement and the Arab Peace Initiative. He used the post-September 11, 2001 climate and the invasion of Iraq to undermine any chance of reviving an understanding with a “Palestinian partner.”
He was known for his short-sightedness when he considered undermining the Palestinian Authority a victory for Israel, even if this led to the rise of Iranian-backed organizations. Throughout his long tenure, Netanyahu refused to read the transformations taking place in some maps of the region, the birth of roaming “Iranian armies” there, and the approach of Iranian “advisers” to his borders.
The contribution of successive US administrations in creating the current situation in the Middle East was certainly immense. They all failed to acknowledge the importance of saving the Oslo Accords. They also did not realize the significance of the Arab Peace Initiative and the necessity of pressuring Israel to stop its attempts to write off the “Palestinian partner.”
A scene that expresses the US administration’s lack of foresight. At the session of the United Nations General Assembly, which was held in light of the September 11 attacks, Arafat went hoping to meet President George Bush or at least shake his hand, especially after it became clear that the attacks were the work of Al-Qaeda. Bush refused to receive Arafat. At the party reserved for heads of delegations, he told Secretary-General Kofi Annan: “This man (Arafat) thinks I will shake his hand. He should shake his own hand.” Bush inherited from Clinton an assessment that the Palestinians were not serious about seeking peace. Clinton was acting as if he was taking revenge for the failure of the Camp David tours.
On the other hand, Iran was moving on several fronts. Through suicide operations by Islamic Jihad and Hamas, it contributed to undermining the Oslo Accords. It dealt with the September 11 attacks with extreme caution. It initially coexisted with the US invasion of Iraq, then participated in the depletion of the US military presence there. It succeeded in exploiting the emergence of ISIS to its advantage. It also worked, with Russia’s help, to save the vital Syrian circle due to its extension to the Mediterranean. Qassem Soleimani was the architect of the Iranian thread linking Baghdad to Beirut via Damascus, in addition to the Yemeni breakthrough represented by the Houthis’ control.
When Yahya Sinwar launched the Al-Aqsa Flood on October 7 and Israel responded with its brutal war in Gaza, the Iranian thread had intensified on the four maps. Whether Iran was aware of the moment of the “flood” or not, its occurrence would have been impossible without its policies and arsenals that are scattered in the region.
It seems clear that Iran is now residing on Israel’s borders through arsenals and policies. The ceasefire process has new conditions. So does the “two-state solution.” Its problem is no longer with Sinwar, but with Iran’s spiritual guide.

A Real Global System Needs a Different Type of Leadership
Eyad Abu Shakra/Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper/January 23/2024
Doesn't the world deserve respectable leaders who put an end to the appeasement of the masses with slogans and populist actions? Many believed that increased awareness and culture in the 21st century would create a bulwark against this sort of behavior and that it would be voted out at the polls if it were tested. We have seen too many examples over the past few weeks to count, so where do we start?
From the United States? It seems that the most powerful force in the world is sleepwalking towards repeating the “scenario” of the election, in what looks like it will be a race between the same two men in their eighties that introduces nothing new... Democratic President Joe Biden and his Republican predecessor Donald Trump.
Or from Britain, where a Conservative government - whose prime minister and senior ministers all have immigrant backgrounds and belong to minority groups - has built its populist political strategy around the “expulsion” of asylum seekers?
Or should we begin with Germany, a country whose great civilization was tarred by Nazism and whose historical “guilt complex,” and a network of political interests, coalesce to leave it defending the atrocities committed by the children of the victims of Nazism in Gaza?
Or from France, which maintains delusions of being a global power that understands the anxieties of the peoples of the world and understands the contradictions of its civilizations... but has put a young duo in charge of foreign policy. This duo has not undergone the experiences or adopted the value systems necessary for developing a mechanism for dialogue and understanding with others.
Or from the Davos Economic Forum in Switzerland, where we heard a rattled populist who had been carried to power by the despair of the Argentine people deliver a foolish lecture on politics and economics, attacking every known system of governance in the world?
These are just examples of the things we have seen and continue to see. They reflect a regrettable state of affairs; politicians lack the credibility needed to build a global system worth complying with and respecting. From the Gaza Strip to Argentina, and from the Indian subcontinent to Ukraine, all the slogans that had emerged at the end of the Cold War are collapsing.
After the fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of the Soviet Union, many believed that the grand battle ended decisively. Thus, there seemed to be no justification for delaying humanity’s march towards happiness, peace, coexistence, prosperity, and justice. However, it later became apparent, to hundreds of millions of naive and well-intentioned people, that human nature is not as they had been to think it was in places of worship, partisan forums, or the “trenches of struggle.”
Moreover, the victorious bloc was not a “charity” seeking to bring people together, nor was it a hospital whose mission was treating diseases. Rather, it was a fierce warrior in an arena that did not accommodate the weak.
Indeed, as soon as the Cold War ended, putting an end to the East-West conflict, we saw the emergence of various ethnic, religious, and sectarian struggles and wars that sought to “correct historical wrongs.”
It did not take long for war to erupt in the Balkans and for the map of Europe to be drawn. It was followed by the wars in the Caucasus, and before the decade was complete, we reached Ukraine.
Moscow's return to the arena, this time in a nationalist guise, was one of these attempts to “right historical wrongs,” armed with a strong memory and a bitter indignation. The outcomes of this new state of affairs that emerged to the West of what used to be the “Soviet sphere” ... were repeated in the South in the Middle East.
Meanwhile, the West, elated by its victory, ignored the factors driving Moscow, as well as the dynamics of China's rise and the ascent of religious politics as an alternative to nationalism and secularism in South Asia, the Middle East, and North Africa.
Especially in the Middle East, Washington's insistence on being the only one entitled to conclude regional peace initiatives created not only a terribly imbalanced approach to ensuring true and lasting peace. it also precipitated the rise of an extremely radical right in Israel... Indeed, the Israeli right was fully convinced that it had the right to “drive” US policy in the region and “exploit” the US to further its projects.
As we have seen and continue to see, the decline in the “quality” of US leadership (be it Republican or Democrat) over recent decades has made it easier for the Israeli religious right to openly declare their intentions. Today, with the Gaza crisis, we find that what had once been small fringe groups of religious right-wing factions in the Knesset are now imposing their political agenda on the Israeli government. This government, in turn, has imposed its political agenda on Washington. It has been empowered by the launch of an “election year” in which both the Republican and Democratic parties compete to appease the American “Israeli lobby.”
Even outside of Washington, the “Israeli lobby” has exploited the October 7 attack in Gaza to reshape the “political narrative” on the Arab-Israeli conflict to their liking. In this effort, they were helped by the new Western definition of “antisemitism.” They also capitalized on Iran’s expansionist ambitions and Europe’s alarming descent towards populism, and hostility towards immigrants, refugees, and Muslims more broadly.
Here, it is worth noting that these “lobbies” are no longer satisfied with just infiltrating parties on the right and left - as is the case in the US, Britain, France, and others. They are now seeking to influence forces that had long been considered marginal and idealistic, unworthy of being infiltrated, like “the Greens”!
The logical explanation for this phenomenon is the decline in the quality of leadership and ethical standards of political institutions, even with democratic accountability. Indeed, this accountability is hindered when the “lobby” infiltrates both alternative - or options - competitors through services, money, and influence.
Wasn’t it the British politician Lord Acton who said: “Power tends to corrupt, and absolute power corrupts absolutely?”

Temporary Survival
Tariq Al-Homayed/Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper/January 23/2024
The region was spared a real catastrophe, but only temporarily, when both Pakistan and Iran were content with mutual strikes on the borders of the two countries, after the unprecedented attack carried out by Tehran on the Pakistani border.
The Iranian assault on Pakistani territory almost led to a real catastrophe, given that Pakistan is a nuclear state, with a population of 250 million, and a strong army. Any military confrontation between Iran and Pakistan would spark a major sectarian war.
The occurrence of a conflict of this kind, God forbid, would also lead to the return of all terrorist organizations, and the emergence of a world of militias throughout the region, in an unprecedented way. It would also disrupt every reform movement in this part of the planet.
Well, how do we read this Iranian aggression, which led to a direct and rapid Pakistani response, the first of its kind on Iranian soil by a country in the region, since the eight-year Iran-Iraq war in 1980?
Tehran’s targeting of Pakistani territory tells us that Iran has no red lines in the region. It also shows that the country, whenever it feels threatened or under siege, does not hesitate to jump into the unknown as its regime lives on the brink of abyss.
This is not a rumor, as Reuters quoted three Iranian officials as saying that the Iranian strike on Pakistan was motivated by Tehran’s efforts to strengthen its internal security rather than its ambitions for the Middle East.
This came after the recent bombings in Kerman, southeastern Iran, in which nearly a hundred people were killed, exposing the fragility of the security situation in Iran, especially following the successive security incursions into Iran by the Israelis.
Adding to all of this are the blows that Tehran’s militias have recently received in Iraq, Yemen and Syria from the Americans. Likewise, the strikes that Iran and Hezbollah are receiving in Syria from the Israelis, such as the killing of the commander of the Quds Force, and the director of the Corps’ intelligence, who was eliminated yesterday in Syria.
This situation prompted the Iranians to carry out attacks that would save face, whether in Iraq or Syria. But what is unusual is the targeting Pakistani territory, which was met with a quick Pakistani response, with a clear message that Pakistan is a red line, and outside the scope of the Iranian adventure.
Tehran did what it did, and what it has always done. It has not yet become a nuclear state, which raises this urgent question: What will a nuclear Iran be like? What are the limits of Tehran’s adventure in the region, or on all Iranian borders?
All the events in the history of Iran, the Khomeini Revolution, and even now, say that it is difficult to predict the behavior of the regime that does not hesitate to intimidate, even if it costs dire consequences. It is true that Iran is always standing on the edge of the abyss, but the matter is not always guaranteed.
Therefore, the easing of the Iranian-Pakistani tension represents temporary salvation. Because nothing is sure with this Iranian approach that always seeks to escape forward. This crisis in itself is an alarm bell that reminds of the danger of the Iranian project not only to the region, but even to the Iranian interior.

What does Iran want?
Andrew England in London and Najmeh Bozorgmehr in Tehran/Financilal Times/January 19/2024
https://www.ft.com/content/df656629-e27e-455f-bb9e-037eb8141778
The first sign that Iran felt the need to flex its muscles more directly after months of tension and hostility across the Middle East came on January 11 when its naval forces dropped from a helicopter to seize an oil tanker off the coast of Oman.
Days later, it was the turn of the elite Revolutionary Guards to deliver a glimpse of their military capabilities. The guards lit up the night sky over Erbil in northern Iraq after launching a barrage of ballistic missiles at what Iran described as an Israeli “espionage centre”.
The Biden administration condemned the attack — which reportedly rattled the nearby US consulate — as “reckless”.
However, in Tehran, these actions were interpreted as part of the Islamic republic’s calculated response to Israel’s more than 100-day offensive in Gaza. The display of force was intended to send a warning message to the US, Israel and other regional powers, but conducted in a targeted manner, far from the front lines of the Israel-Hamas war.
“The series of attacks are definitely related to the war on Gaza and are Iran’s show of power as the sole and leading military power standing against Israel,” says Saeed Laylaz, an Iranian analyst.
The assaults were the first time Iran has directly unleashed its military since Hamas’s October 7 attack triggered the war with Israel, sending shockwaves across the Middle East.
From the outset, there were concerns in Israel, its western allies and among Arab states about how Iran and the myriad militant groups it backs might respond. Days after Hamas’s attack, US President Joe Biden warned Iran “to be careful”, before dispatching two carrier strike groups to the region as a deterrent.
In the months since, Iran’s leaders have chastised Israel and expressed support for Hamas, but have publicly stated their desire to avoid a regional conflict, and kept their forces out of the fray. The regime was content for its so-called Axis of Resistance, which includes militant groups in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen, to lead the military response, launching missile, drone and rocket attacks against Israel, US forces in the region and global shipping.
Yet a series of hostile acts over the past three weeks, directed at Iranians as well as senior leaders of the republic’s proxies, appear to have compelled Iran to up the ante.
The first was an Israeli air strike in Syria that killed a senior Revolutionary Guards commander at the end of December. The following week, another Israeli strike killed Saleh al-Arouri, Hamas’s deputy political leader, in southern Beirut, a stronghold of Hizbollah, the Lebanese Shia militant movement that is Iran’s most powerful proxy.
On January 3, the next day, two suicide bombers killed almost 100 Iranians who had gathered in the southern city of Kerman to mark the anniversary of the US’s assassination of Qassem Soleimani, the republic’s most powerful commander. Sunni jihadist group Isis claimed responsibility for the attack, but only after Revolutionary Guards commanders suggested Israel was to blame.
Next, a US strike in Baghdad killed a senior commander of an Iranian-backed Iraqi militia, dealing another blow to the Axis of Resistance.
It was then that Iran began striking out directly. The guards described their attack on Erbil as a response to the “recent atrocities of the Zionist regime” as well as the killing of commanders of the guards and “resistance”.
Iran simultaneously launched missiles against Isis targets in Syria, in retaliation for the suicide bombings in Kerman. On January 16, it mounted a rare strike in Pakistan, targeting Jaish ul-Adl, another Sunni militant group. Islamabad responded with missile attacks against Pakistani separatists in Iran.
An Iranian official says Iran’s strikes do not represent a change in strategy but a change in tactics to make the US and Israel aware of the threat it could pose as long as the war in Gaza continues.
“Involving Pakistan and Erbil sends a message directly to the Israelis and the Americans, and the message is ‘don’t mess with Iran, and finish the war in Gaza’,” the official says. “Iran doesn’t want a direct war with Israel and the US. But we want to be seen and felt by the Americans — and show how nasty we could be.”
People walk under an anti-Israel mural in Tehran. An Iranian official says that ‘Iran doesn’t want a direct war with Israel and the US. But we want to be seen and felt by the Americans — and show how nasty we could be’ © AP
The strategy isn’t without risk, the official adds, but hardliners inside Iran believe the damage can be controlled. “From their perspective, a limited, calculated engagement could [also] give the message to Iran’s proxies that in hard times we are supporting them.”
Since its devastating 1980s war with Iraq, the Islamic regime has made proxies and asymmetrical warfare an integral part of its national security strategy, cognisant that it lacks the conventional weapons to match the US or Israel.
That network, which began with the birth of Hizbollah in the 1980s, has expanded over the past two decades as the 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq and the tumult triggered by the 2011 Arab uprisings reshaped the region’s dynamics.
United by an anti-US, anti-Israel ideology, the grouping has come to incorporate powerful Shia factions in Iraq; militias in Syria, where Iran intervened to back the Assad regime in that country’s civil conflict; Hamas; and Houthi rebels in Yemen, which have fought a nine-year war against an Arab coalition led by Saudi Arabia, Iran’s regional rival.
Each has responded militarily to Israel’s offensive in Gaza: Hizbollah has been locked in daily cross-border clashes with Israel; the Houthis have launched more than 30 attacks against merchant ships in the Red Sea, as well as drones and missiles at the Israeli port of Eilat; and Iraqi militants have fired more than 140 missiles and drones against US forces in Iraq and Syria.
Tehran publicly insists the militants are acting independently, but by opening multiple fronts, their actions have enabled Iranian leaders to project power and hostility to Israel, while distancing the republic itself from direct combat and reducing the risks of it being sucked into a broader conflict.
US officials, meanwhile, accuse the Iranians of being “deeply involved” in planning the Houthis’ assaults against shipping, saying they have provided drones and “tactical intelligence” to the group. Iran has long provided financial and military support to militants from Hizbollah and to Iraqi factions collectively grouped under the umbrella of the Popular Mobilisation Forces, or Hashd al-Shaabi.
“Iran is the head of the octopus and you see its tentacles all around from the Houthis to Hizbollah to Hamas,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told reporters in Tel Aviv on Thursday.
Hamid-Reza Taraghi, a hardline Iranian politician, boasts that the post-October 7 hostilities have provided a “good military drill” for the axis.
“There is today more unity and co-ordination between the different groups of the Axis of Resistance and they help each other, putting their lives at risk to defend their co-fighters in different places,” he says. “The reason is they all follow one leader, Ayatollah [Ali] Khamenei.”
Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi talks to a person injured in the Isis attack in Kerman. The jihadist group claimed responsibility for the attack, but only after Revolutionary Guards’ commanders blamed Israel © Iran’s Presidency/WANA/Handout/Reuters
Khamenei himself, Iran’s supreme leader, said this month the “resistance must keep its strength up and be ready, not falling for the enemy’s tricks, and, God willing, wherever possible, deliver a blow”.
Yet the groups within the axis are not homogenous, and each has its own national agenda. Hizbollah and the leaders of the Shia Iraqi factions have the strongest ties to Tehran. Hamas is a Sunni Islamist movement, while the Houthis, members of the Zaydi Shia sect, are less ideologically aligned with Iran than other groups. But their relationship with the republic has deepened after years fighting the Saudi-led coalition from their base in northern Yemen.
In recent months, the Houthis have been one of the most active members of the network, displaying their strategic value to Iran as they have severely disrupted global trade through the Red Sea and drawn the US and UK into combat. But the true extent of Iranian influence over the group is often debated.
Indeed, some in western capitals question how effectively Iran is navigating the crisis. “Iran hasn’t been the brilliant mastermind some perceive that is operating with a clear strategy, concrete objectives and clever manoeuvring,” says Ali Vaez, an Iran expert at Crisis Group. “A lot of its actions seem reactive, scrambling, short-sighted and impetuous.”
A US military picture shows what it says are Iranian-made missile components bound for Yemen’s Houthi group that the US seized off a vessel in the Arabian Sea © US Central Command (CENTCOM)/AFP/Getty Images
Contrary to what Iranian leaders say, he adds, the strikes against commanders in the guards, Hizbollah and the Iraqi militia have diminished Iran’s efforts to project regional deterrence through the axis, and put it “on the back foot”. His concern is that Tehran will turn to another avenue to up the stakes with the US — its nuclear programme.
Before the Israel-Hamas war broke out, there were tentative signs of movement in the west’s stand-off with Iran over its nuclear ambitions.
In September, the Biden administration and the republic agreed to a prisoner swap, which involved Washington unfreezing $6bn of Iran’s oil money. Alongside that deal, the parties discussed unwritten de-escalatory measures, including Tehran putting a cap on its aggressive nuclear expansion as it enriched uranium close to weapons grade. There had been signs that Iran was slowing the pace at which it was producing highly enriched uranium.
But the conflict dashed hopes of progress. Instead, a December report by the International Atomic Energy Agency said Tehran had increased its rate of production of uranium enriched up to 60 per cent purity — close to weapons grade — to levels reported in the first half of 2023. “I’m afraid Iran’s nuclear calculus could change, and in very problematic ways,” Vaez says.
The Iranian official says the increased enrichment was a message to the Biden administration after Washington informed Tehran that it would not discuss the nuclear issue until after the US election. “If America wants to wait, they should suffer the consequences, and the consequences are going to be increasing enrichment,” the official says.
Protesters in Tehran carry a portrait of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and a Yemeni flag as they tear apart an Israeli flag. US officials accuse Iran of being ‘deeply involved’ in planning the Houthis’ assaults on merchant shipping © Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto/Reuters
A consequence neither side wants, however, is military escalation. The US and Iran are relying on back channels through states such as Qatar to try to prevent that outcome. Biden has also publicly stated he has sent warnings to Tehran, most recently cautioning it not to aid the Houthis.
Sanam Vakil, Middle East programme director at Chatham House, believes the regime will continue to be restrained because of its ultimate goal: self-preservation.
“Iran’s number one priority is Iran, and we should never forget that. Iran will not mobilise its own forces unless it is directly hit,” she says. “It isn’t this sort of mammoth, behemoth puppet master behind the scene, but actually also tactical and it has weaknesses — and the ability to be deterred.”
Instead, it will continue to rely on its proxy network to project power. “It has a forward defence strategy that it has put into place and has tried to push its perceived threats far away from its borders,” Vakil says. “But it’s important not to oversell Iran’s position in the region or its investments in the Axis of Resistance.”A critical question, however, is whether the calculus in Tehran changes if a full-blown war erupts between Israel and Hizbollah — the proxy it has invested most heavily in, and which some see as indispensable to its patron.
“Hizbollah is not Hamas — Hizbollah is the Islamic Republic of Iran,” says the Iranian official.

Wanted: Palestinian Leaders Who Will Condemn Terrorism
Bassam Tawil/Gatestone Institute./January 23, 2024
If the Biden administration thinks that the Palestinian Authority leaders will cease inciting Palestinians against Israel, they need to think again.
How can Palestinian leaders, who are terrified of Hamas and even more terrified of their own people, be expected to prevent the terrorists from attacking Israel in the event that these leaders were handed a state?
In addition, why would Israel – or anyone else – trust any Palestinian leader who considers Islamist murderers, rapists and baby-killers as "part of the Palestinian national, social and political fabric"?
Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas has refrained from publicly denouncing the Iran-backed Hamas terror group for its barbaric attacks on Israelis. In fact, Abbas and the Palestinian Authority have stepped up their anti-Israel rhetoric since the beginning of the Israel-Hamas war. Pictured: Abbas (L) meets with Hamas leader Khaled Maashal (R) and Qatar's Emir, Sheikh Tamim ibn Hamad Al Thani (C) on August 21, 2014 in Doha, Qatar. (Photo by Thaer Ghanaim/PPO via Getty Images)
More than three months have passed since Hamas's October 7 attack on Israel, during which hundreds of Israelis were murdered, beheaded, raped, mutilated, and kidnapped -- and it is still hard to find any senior Palestinian Authority official who is prepared to condemn the atrocities.
Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, who has held a number of meetings over the past few weeks with senior US administration officials, including Secretary of State Antony Blinken, has refrained from publicly denouncing the Iran-backed Hamas terror group for its barbaric attacks on Israelis.
Abbas, it appears, fears a backlash from his people and other Arabs if he speaks out against the murder of Israeli women, children, and the elderly. One word against Hamas and its terrorism, and Abbas' people might well label him a "traitor" and "collaborator" with Israel.
Abbas's fear is not unjustified. Almost three out of four Palestinians believe that the October 7 massacre was "correct," according to a public opinion poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Research Survey (PSR). The poll also found that support for Hamas had risen in the Gaza Strip, and more than tripled in the West Bank, after the carnage.
Abbas most likely not only fears his own people, but also Hamas. He has hardly forgotten how Hamas staged a violent coup against him and the Palestinian Authority in 2007, killing dozens of his loyalists in the Gaza Strip. Some of Abbas's men were thrown off rooftops, while others were dragged to the street and lynched by Hamas terrorists. "We haven't forgotten how they [Hamas] amputated legs and threw people off rooftops," said Palestinian lawyer and political analyst Zaid al-Ayoubi.
This is the same Abbas that the Biden administration is hoping to hand the Gaza Strip over to after the removal of Hamas from power. Biden administration officials believe that a "revitalized" Palestinian Authority would be able to control the Gaza Strip in the post-Hamas era. Exactly what these officials mean when they talk about a "revitalized" Palestinian Authority, however, remains murky.
If the Biden administration thinks that the Palestinian Authority leaders will cease inciting Palestinians against Israel, they need to think again. In fact, Abbas and the Palestinian Authority have stepped up their anti-Israel rhetoric since the beginning of the Israel-Hamas war. Instead of denouncing Hamas for initiating the war, the Palestinian Authority has been accusing Israel of committing "war crimes," "genocide," and "ethnic cleansing" against the Palestinians. These false accusations are broadcast by the Palestinian Authority and its leaders on a daily basis.
If the Biden administration thinks that Palestinian leaders will stop rewarding terrorists for murdering Jews as part of the "Pay-for-Slay" policy, that too will not happen. How do we know? Just listen to what Abbas has repeatedly asserted over the past few years: "If we had only a single penny left, we would pay it to the families of the martyrs and prisoners."
The Wall Street Journal wrote in a January 15 editorial:
"Itamar Marcus of Palestinian Media Watch explains that "the PA [Palestinian Authority] does not differentiate between Hamas terrorists who committed atrocities after invading Israel on Oct. 7, the Hamas terrorists killed by Israel in the ensuing war, and civilian non-combatants killed in the Gaza Strip while being used as human shields by Hamas." All are treated as heroic martyrs to be compensated by the PA, whose activities are subsidized with Western aid."
If the Biden administration wants proof that Palestinian leaders have no intention of reforming the Palestinian Authority and distancing themselves from Hamas and terrorism, they should take note of what happened to Palestinian Social Affairs Minister Ahmed Majdalani.
In a recent interview with the Saudi TV channel Al-Hadath, Majdalani said:
"Hamas is a terrorist organization in its current form, its current program, and its current political discourse."
Initially, Majdalani's remarks seemed to offer a refreshing and encouraging perspective. Finally, it appeared, a Palestinian leader was willing to denounce Hamas for carrying out the bloodiest massacre of Jews since the Holocaust and bringing death and destruction on the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip.
This optimism, however, quickly proved to be short-lived. Shortly after Majdalani made his statement, many Palestinians and Arabs launched a scathing attack on him, accusing him of being a "Zionist dog" and "traitor" and calling for his execution.
A cartoon posted on X (formerly Twitter) featured Majdalani being thrown into a dumpster that carries the writing "Dustbin of History."
Several Palestinian factions issued a joint statement condemning Majdalani for labeling Hamas a terrorist organization:
"These dangerous and unacceptable statements do not represent our people. They are an attempt to coexist with the [Israeli] enemy and cover up for the crimes being waged against our people. Ahmed Majdalani continues his meetings and relations with the Zionists. These statements confirm his suspicious role and constitute a disgrace and a major crime."
The campaign of intimidation and defamation quickly achieved its goal. Majdalani was quick to issue a "Clarification to Palestinian Public Opinion" in which he claimed that his statements had been taken out of context. Not only did the Palestinian minister deny the words that he uttered during the TV interview (still available online), he went on to defend Hamas:
"The Hamas movement is part of the Palestinian national and social fabric. We reject any attempt to marginalize Hamas and call for national partnership with it."
What happened with the Palestinian minister shows, once again, how Palestinian leaders lack the courage needed for moral clarity and how they are intimidated by their own people. These are the same Palestinian leaders for whom the Biden administration wants to establish a Palestinian state on Israel's doorstep.
How can Palestinian leaders, who are terrified of Hamas and even more terrified of their own people, be expected to prevent the terrorists from attacking Israel in the event that these leaders were handed a state?
In addition, why would Israel – or anyone else – trust any Palestinian leader who considers Islamist murderers, rapists and baby-killers as "part of the Palestinian national, social and political fabric"?
*Bassam Tawil is a Muslim Arab based in the Middle East.
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After Israel-Hamas war, Egyptian Copts face ambiguous future
Haisam Hassanein/ Washington Examiner/January 23/2024 |
For almost a decade, Egyptian President Abdel Fatah el-Sisi has wanted to curb religious extremism and enhance the status of Christians in his country. In the wake of Hamas’ Oct. 7th attacks in Israel — and the response from radicalized Muslims throughout the Middle East and beyond — the fruits of Sisi’s work on behalf of Egyptian Christians are now threatened.
The enemy of my enemy is my friend, says the old proverb. It’s still relevant today, and it explains the current religious harmony in Egypt between pro-government elites, outlawed Muslim Brotherhood peers in the diaspora, and Jihadi supporters in general: All glorify acts of terrorism by Hamas.
Immediately following the Oct. 7th massacre, state-funded Al-Azhar — the largest Sunni Muslim institution in Egypt — declared that it “proudly salutes the resistance” for its attacks against Israeli civilians. But this discourse contradicts ongoing efforts by Sisi over the past decade to curb religious extremism. This antagonization in Egyptian society fueled by pro-government institutions should alarm Washington; more work is needed to protect the future of the Christian minority in the most populous Arab state. (This is nothing new. Egypt is already on the State Department’s special watch list that focuses on governments tolerating severe religious persecution.)  Christians make up roughly 10% of the 109 million people who live in Egypt. That makes Egypt’s Christian community the largest Christian community in the Middle East. Approximately 90% of Egypt’s Christians belong to the Coptic Orthodox Church, while others are affiliated with Armenian Orthodox, Greek Orthodox, and Roman Catholic faiths.
A devout Muslim, Sisi made a concerted effort to demonstrate tolerance toward Copts after assuming office. Since 2015, unlike his predecessors, he has made it an annual tradition to visit the Eastern Orthodox Church during Christmas time. His messaging has focused on unity against the Muslim Brotherhood, protection from terrorism, and building more churches. A famous incident occurred in mid-December 2018 in a televised conference during the opening of a residential project built by the armed forces: The Egyptian strongman asked one of his military generals, “Where is the church, Emad?” The answer did not satisfy Sisi, so he gave an order to the minister of defense to build a church in every new city.
Coptic representation in the Parliament is higher than in previous eras; currently, Copts represent 6.2% — 37 seats from a total of 596 — of the Parliament elected in 2020. There are two main reasons for this. First, election laws mandate quotas for Copts, which obligate political parties to include Christian candidates in their candidate lists to fulfill government requirements. Second, aggressive regime campaigns against the usage of religious slogans intimidate radical segments of the society and prevent them from harassing their Christian countrymen.
Let’s make no mistake, though. Sisi’s relations with the church have been transactional. Pope Tawadros II, the leader of the Coptic Orthodox Church of Alexandria, explained in one of his sermons, “The president always support us, and our role is to support him.” Friendly relations between state and church encouraged the Coptic community in diaspora to support the regime during its fight against the Muslim Brotherhood. Moreover, the church harnessed its capabilities to serve Cairo’s diplomacy. It utilized connections with the Ethiopian sister church to lobby for Cairo’s efforts with the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam issue, and in 2015, it served as a normalization gesture to the Jewish state when Pope Tawadros II paid a historic visit to Jerusalem to attend the bishop’s funeral, becoming the first head of the Coptic church to visit Israel since 1967.
While mutual understandings exist between the regime and the church, morale and the conditions of the community itself aren’t satisfactory. Young Copts are frustrated over the dire socioeconomic conditions. Together with continuous violent incidents — mainly in upper Egypt, where the security apparatus merely implements the strategy of “pain killers” through customary sessions, which forces Muslims and Christians to sign reconciliation agreements after sectarian incidents — discontent grows. Additionally, Christians are still discouraged from certain careers, such as sports, and they are under-represented in many positions in politics, security, and media. Not surprisingly, this boosts the desire to emigrate. The Israel-Hamas war served as a lifeline for Cairo. Because of its influence over Gaza’s future, the war reestablished Egypt’s relevance in regional politics. But this should not distract Washington and its Western allies from continuing to push for the necessary reforms Cairo still needs to undertake in the area of human rights. The future of Egyptian Christians is an important issue, worthy of high-level discussions. While Sisi has been personally warm to Egyptian Christians, his government institutions have not been — and the current radicalization sweeping the country’s domestic scenery is likely to put their future safety in jeopardy.
*Haisam Hassanein is an adjunct fellow at FDD, where he analyzes Arab-Israel relations.