English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For August 15/2024
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

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Bible Quotations For today
Feast of the Assumption of the Virgin Mary – Our Lady of the Vineyard
From the book The Liturgical Gospel (Bkerki-2005)
Assumption of the Virgin Mary The Christian tradition in the East and West tells us, and the Church proclaims a belief that our Lady, the Virgin Mary, has ascended to heaven with her body and soul. This was announced by Pope Pius XII in the year 1950. We do not deny the death of the Virgin, but rather we believe that she moved later to heaven without her body seeing corruption, by a special privilege from God. Just as He chose her as a mother and a virgin, and just as He protected her from original sin, He also transferred her to Him in her perfect human nature, body and soul. The history of this feast is old, dating back to before the sixth generation on the constant. And we find for every saint a place where they honor his body, except for the Virgin, as there is no single tradition about honoring the body of the Virgin. Today, all Christians in the East and West, Catholics and non-Catholics – except for Protestants – celebrate this feast. May our Virgin Mother intercede for us, and may her prayers be a wall for us, Amen.

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on August 14-15/2024
Gallant: Hezbollah must withdraw north of Litani River
US envoy Hochstein: Diplomatic resolution is achievable in Gaza
U.S. envoy visits Lebanon and warns that regional tensions could easily slip 'out of control'
Nasrallah refuses to meet Hussam Louka.. and Hezbollah does not trust Assad and fears revealing the location of its Secretary-General!
Berri and Hochstein agree 'no more time to waste' on Gaza ceasefire
Mikati urges Hochstein to press Israel to halt its attacks and threats
Southern Front: Israeli Raid on Marjayoun Kills Two
Israeli strike on al-Abbasiyeh wounds 17 as Hezbollah attacks Israeli posts
France's Séjourné to visit Lebanon for key talks: LBCI sources
Air France and Transavia say they expect to resume flights to Beirut Thursday
More than 200 prisoners evacuated from south and Dahieh amid wider war concerns
What if Lebanon Is Placed on FATF’s Gray List?
Cabinet Meeting: LBP 150 Billion to the High Relief Commission
Former Finance Minister George Corm Passed Away at 84
Is the Unification of Fronts a Realistic Approach?/Rami Rayess/This Is Beirut/August 14/2024
Kanaan Addresses Unity Amidst FPM Internal Strife
Moving Cameras and Shoes Hanging on the Wall: Unraveling the Mystery Behind this Family’s Grave
Will Israel restore security to the north?/Enia Krivine/Jewish News Syndicate/August 14/2024

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on August 14-15/2024
An unusual announcement about a US Navy submarine packed with cruise missiles is a loud message that puts Iran on notice
Blinken postpones Middle East trip amid ‘uncertainty,’ approves $20bn Israel weapons package
Israeli spy chiefs to attend Gaza talks in Doha: PM’s office
Qatar will try to convince Hamas to participate in peace talks
New round of Gaza cease-fire talks is starting. Why is a deal so elusive?
Iran’s mixed signals leave some allies in the dark and set region on edge
A new round of Gaza cease-fire talks is starting. Why is a deal so elusive?
Israel Is The 'Most Moral Country In The World', UN Ambassador Claims In Dramatic Goodbye Speech
Top Hamas official says group is losing faith in US as mediator in Gaza cease-fire talks
Israeli forces clash with Hamas in occupied West Bank
Israel publishes plan for new West Bank settlement as regional tensions simmer
Turkey will continue to increase pressure on Israel, Erdogan tells Palestinian leader Abbas
Major cyber attack strikes banks in Iran
Turkey, Iraq to hold new round of security talks in Ankara, source says
Ukraine said it shot down a $36 million Su-34 bomber jet inside Russia
Russia Slapped Down At UN Meeting As Ukrainian Allies Remind Moscow It Is Not A 'Victim'
Earthquake aftershocks hit Hama in western Syria

Titles For The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources on August 14-15/2024
China Is Now Goading Iran into Attacking Israel/Gordon G. Chang/Gatestone Institute/August 14, 2024
Iran’s apocalyptic Shi’ite dream/Lawrence Frankline/Jewish News Syndicate/August 14/2024
How much power do Arab and Muslim voters have in the next US elections?/RAY HANANIA/Arab News/August 14, 2024
Invading Russia is a gamble that may pay off for Zelensky/Mohamed Chebaro/Arab News/August 14, 2024
The 'quiet world war' behind the struggles in the Middle East: This is the global map of interests in the Middle East/Tzipi Shmilovich, Yair Navot/Ynetnews/August 14/2025
Today in History: Muslims Behead 800 Christians for Refusing to Renounce Christ/Raymond Ibrahim/The Stream/August 14/2025
Politico reporter speculates that MBS's life in danger over Israel-Saudi deal/Tovah Lazaroff/Jerusalem Post/August 14/2024
The Saudi Crown Prince is Talking About An Assassination. His Own./Nahal Toosi/Politico/August 14/2024
Politico reporter speculates that MBS's life in danger over Israel-Saudi deal/Tovah Lazaroff/Jerusalem Post/August 14/2024

Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on August 14-15/2024
Gallant: Hezbollah must withdraw north of Litani River
JNS/August 14, 2024
“We deal with both removing threats and preparing all the possibilities to be able to attack wherever we decide,” Israel's defense minister said. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on Tuesday vowed to push back Hezbollah terrorists north of the Litani River, in accordance with U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701 that ended the 2006 Second Lebanon War with the Iranian proxy. “We deal with both removing threats and preparing all the possibilities to be able to attack wherever we decide,” said Gallant during a visit to an IDF intelligence base in northern Israel. He was briefed on the intelligence operations that enabled last month’s targeted killing in Beirut of Hezbollah military chief Fuad Shukr, also known as al-Hajj Mohsin. “We are determined to fulfill our mission—we must allow the safe return of [Israel’s northern] residents to their homes, once we ensure that Hezbollah withdraws north of the Litani River,” added the defense minister. The Biden administration has rejected Jerusalem’s demand that a diplomatic deal to end the current low-intensity conflict in the north be based on the implementation of Resolution 1701, which calls for a demilitarized zone from the U.N.-demarcated Israel-Lebanon Blue Line border to the Litani River some 18 miles to the north. President Joe Biden’s envoy Amos Hochstein has been jetting between Beirut, Paris and Jerusalem trying to mediate a deal that would require Hezbollah to withdraw its forces around 10 km. (6.2 miles) from the border. According to The New York Times, Hochstein’s proposal would also require the IDF to withdraw from some of its positions along the border and see the U.S. transfer billions of dollars in reconstruction and other economic aid to the Hezbollah-controlled Lebanese government. The vast majority of Israelis agree that the safety of northern residents can only be secured by a diplomatic agreement requiring Iranian-backed Hezbollah to withdraw north of the Litani River, according to a JNS/Direct Polls survey of public opinion carried out on July 9. On Tuesday, Gallant also held a meeting with the head of IDF Northern Command, Maj. Gen. Ori Gordin, to discuss the military’s operational readiness. “I am aware of the tensions and the great burden placed on the citizens of Israel. We are closely following what is happening—also in Beirut, in Tehran and in additional places,” said Gallant. “Thanks to the people at this base and in many places all over the country—at sea, on land, and in the air—the citizens of Israel can maintain their routine lives, but must remain vigilant, alert and ready,” he added. Iran on Tuesday rejected calls by Western countries to back down from its threat to attack Israel over the assassination of Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31. Tehran’s Foreign Ministry said that the calls from France, Germany and Britain to exercise restraint “lack political logic and contradict principles of international law.”Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah have accused Israel of killing Haniyeh, but Jerusalem has not taken responsibility. Separately, Hezbollah has vowed revenge for the killing of Shukr, which Israel did take credit for. Three senior Iranian officials said on Tuesday that only a ceasefire deal with Hamas in Gaza can prevent an Islamic Republic attack on Israel. One of the sources, a senior security official, said that Iran and its regional terrorist proxies, including Hezbollah, would carry out a direct attack if the Gaza talks fail or if Jerusalem is perceived to be dragging out the negotiations. Iran has been conducting an “intense dialogue” with the United States and other Western countries on “ways to calibrate retaliation,” the sources said.

US envoy Hochstein: Diplomatic resolution is achievable in Gaza
NAJIA HOUSSARI/Arab News/August 14, 2024
BEIRUT: US Presidential Envoy Amos Hochstein believes a solution can be reached in Gaza. Speaking from Beirut on Wednesday, he said: “A diplomatic resolution is achievable because we continue to believe that no one truly wants a full-scale war between Lebanon and Israel.”Hochstein’s visit to Lebanon comes on the eve of Thursday’s Doha negotiations which aim to avoid all-out conflict. Iran and Hezbollah have vowed to avenge Israel’s assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas’s political bureau chief, and prominent Hezbollah military commander Fuad Shukr. The outcome is eagerly awaited as Hezbollah has said it will have a ceasefire in Lebanon if one is agreed in Gaza. According to the Lebanese Information International Center this secondary war, launched in southern Lebanon on Oct. 8 last year, has resulted in 564 casualties to date. This includes 393 Hezbollah members, 88 civilians, 11 Palestinians, 18 Syrians and one Lebanese soldier, along with seven paramedics, three journalists, and others linked to parties allied with Hezbollah. Hochstein met with caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, a Hezbollah ally and channel of communication with the party. He also met with Army Commander Gen. Joseph Aoun and several opposition MPs representing the Kataeb Party, the Lebanese Forces Party, independents and reformists. In a press conference after an hour-long meeting with Berri, Hochstein said: “When I was in Lebanon on my last visit in June, I told everyone that we believe the conflict has lasted too long, and that a diplomatic solution is both possible and urgently necessary. What was true in June, unfortunately, remains true today.”He said his discussions with Berri centered on “the framework agreement that’s on the table for a Gaza ceasefire, and he and I agreed there is no more time to waste and there’s no more valid excuses from any party for any further delay.” According to Mikati’s media office, the prime minister emphasized “the importance of exerting pressure on Israel to halt its aggressions and threats. He stressed that the key to a solution lies in establishing a ceasefire in Gaza and implementing the Security Council resolutions, particularly Resolution 1701, which ensures stability in the southern region.” MP Hankash spoke about “great efforts by the international community to reach a ceasefire” and said: “All parties must abide by this. The Lebanese government must make the decision, deploy the army and implement Resolution 1701.”An Israeli airstrike targeted a road at the junction of the entrance to the city of Tyre and the town of Abbasiyeh while Hochstein was in Lebanon. A motorcyclist sustained critical injuries, while ten civilians in a nearby vehicle and a number of other people were injured. Two young girls, Sara and Lara Tarmas, and their grandfather were struck by shrapnel. Security reports indicated that the motorcyclist, who was targeted, was linked with Hezbollah. On Tuesday two of the organization’s members, Ibrahim Al-Ashi and Fadi Shihab, were killed in an Israeli drone attack on their car in the town of Baraachit.

U.S. envoy visits Lebanon and warns that regional tensions could easily slip 'out of control'
Kareem Chehayeb/The Associated Press/August 14, 2024
A senior adviser to U.S. President Joe Biden said Wednesday it's critical to take advantage of “this window for diplomatic action” to end the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza and ongoing hostilities along the Lebanon-Israel border, fearing that escalations could spiral "out of control.”
Amos Hochstein, tasked with shuttle diplomacy between Lebanon and Israel, spoke to journalists after meeting Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, as the region anxiously anticipates retaliatory attacks from Iran and the allied Lebanese Hezbollah group on Israel. Hochstein met with Israeli officials Tuesday.
Cease-fire talks between Hamas and Israel are expected to resume in Qatar on Thursday with Qatari, Egyptian, and U.S. mediators. Hezbollah and Israel have traded strikes since Oct. 8, a day after Palestinian Hamas militants' surprise attack into southern Israel that sparked the war in Gaza.
“The more time goes by of escalated tensions, the more time goes by of daily conflict, the more the odds and the chances go up for accidents, for mistakes, for inadvertent targets to be hit that could easily cause escalation that goes out of control,” Hochstein said. An Israeli strike last month in southern Beirut killed Hezbollah’s top commander, whom Israel accused of leading a rocket attack on the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights that killed 12 youths. Hours later, an explosion widely blamed on Israel killed Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh. Both Tehran and Hezbollah vowed to retaliate.
Hochstein said he and speaker Berri agreed there were “no more valid excuses from any party for any further delay” on a cease-fire based on a framework Biden presented months ago. “The deal would also help enable a diplomatic resolution here in Lebanon,” the U.S. envoy added.
A diplomatic official told The Associated Press that Hochstein during his meetings discussed plans for a long-term diplomatic solution for Lebanon and Israel that the U.S. and France have preparing after a cease-fire in Gaza is achieved. The official spoke on condition of anonymity in line with regulations.
Hochstein also met with Lebanon's caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati and Army chief Gen. Joseph Aoun Hochstein. Fighting continued as the meetings took place. Lebanon’s Health Ministry and state media said an Israeli airstrike targeting a motorcycle in the southern Lebanese village of Abbasiyeh wounded 17 people. Hezbollah later said its fighters fired rockets toward the northern Israeli town of Kiryat Shmona in retaliation. There were no immediate reports of injuries in Israel.
The “broad consensus” is that a cease-fire in Gaza would help bring calm to hostilities in Lebanon and elsewhere in the region, said Maha Yahya, the director of the Beirut-based Carnegie Middle East Center. She believes that Hezbollah and Iran did not expect the war in Gaza to continue for so long.
“Nobody counted on the fact that this would last 10 months and still going, with an increasing humanitarian toll,” she told the AP. “Put aside the rhetoric and public anger, which is very much there and not for show, they have been open to diplomatic back-channel discussion to try to resolve this.”
Yahya said Iran and Hezbollah not attacking over the past two weeks slightly dims the element of surprise, while the U.S. military increases its naval reinforcements in the area and diplomatic discussion takes place.
If war breaks out between Hezbollah and Israel, it would be the first since a six-week war in the summer of 2006 ended in a draw. Hezbollah's military capabilities have developed significantly since then. War would further devastate Lebanon, which already has a deeply divided government and a battered economy. Mikati's caretaker government has met to discuss an emergency response plan should war break out.
About 100,000 Lebanese people have been displaced from the country's south, a similar number to Israelis who fled the north there. Health Minister Firas Abiad has told the AP that donors need to step up their support given that Lebanon also hosts over 1 million Syrian refugees. Environment Minister Nasser Yassin, who leads the emergency response plan, said 200 schools were being prepared as makeshift shelters. “We estimate we might have one million displaced from Lebanese towns and cities in case they are under attack,” Yassin told the AP.

Nasrallah refuses to meet Hussam Louka.. and Hezbollah does not trust Assad and fears revealing the location of its Secretary-General!
Janoubia/August 14, 2024
(Translated from Arabic by Google)
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2024/08/133276/

The gap between “Hezbollah” and its Secretary-General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and the Syrian regime headed by President Bashar al-Assad is widening. Informed sources reveal to “Janoubia” that Nasrallah refused to meet the head of the General Intelligence Service affiliated with the regime, Major General Hussam Louka, who was sent by Assad, and the party was satisfied with organizing an appointment for Louka with Sheikh Naim Qassem and Wafiq Safa. The sources indicate that Nasrallah does not trust Assad and feels that he is making a deal with the West, Europe and Russia that does not take into account the concerns and interests of Hezbollah. Due to the lack of trust factor, the “party” fears that Nasrallah’s location will be revealed to the Mossad, especially after the assassination of Fouad Shukr, its first military commander, and especially since Israel seeks to reveal Nasrallah’s location and is trying to assassinate him!
Meetings between Luka and Hezbollah
The meeting between Luka and Qassem Safa addressed the current regional situation and the Arab, regional and European contacts that have been taking place with the regime for some time regarding the refugee file and the ongoing war and the situation in southern Syria.
Luka explained to the Hezbollah leadership that he visited the Romanian capital Bucharest two weeks ago and met with his counterpart Edward Helwig and discussed developments in the regional and international situation, and that the latter promised him to cooperate with Cyprus and to participate in an effort to open a gap in the Syrian relationship with the US administration, according to the source. Luka also informed the party leadership of the developments in the Syrian regime’s relations with Saudi Arabia and the Emirates and the possible reconciliation with Turkey under Russian sponsorship and the ongoing talks with other countries such as Kuwait and the security and political coordination with Egypt and the Sultanate of Oman regarding the ongoing war in the Gaza Strip and southern

Berri and Hochstein agree 'no more time to waste' on Gaza ceasefire

Agence France Presse/Associated Press/August 14/2024
Visiting U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein warned Wednesday that the clock was ticking for a Gaza ceasefire that would also end 10 months of cross-border exchanges between Lebanon's Hezbollah and Israel. Hochstein told a Beirut news conference that he and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, a Hezbollah ally, discussed "the framework agreement that's on the table for a Gaza ceasefire, and he and I agreed there is no more time to waste and there's no more valid excuses from any party for any further delay.""The deal would also help enable a diplomatic resolution here in Lebanon and that would prevent an outbreak of a wider war," Hochstein said. “The more time goes by of escalated tensions the more time goes by of daily conflict the more the odds and the chances go up for accidents, for mistakes, for inadvertent targets to be hit that could easily cause escalation that goes out of control,” Hochstein warned. "Here in Lebanon we believe we can get to (the) end of the conflict now, today. We recognize that there are those who want to tie it to other conflicts. That is not our position," Hochstein said. "We have to take advantage of this window for diplomatic action and diplomatic solutions. That time is now," he added.
Berri for his part stressed the need to “halt the Israeli war on the Gaza Strip and Lebanon that has been ongoing for more than 10 months,” expressing grave concern over “the escalatory steps that the Israeli political and military echelons have been taking through the policy of cross-border assassinations.”
“This policy points to Israel’s determination to press forward with military escalation and foil any efforts to stop the war,” the Speaker added. Berri also reiterated “Lebanon’s adherence to the renewal of the mandate of the UNIFIL forces as per U.N. resolution 1701, which Lebanon has been seeking its full implementation ever since it was issued in 2006.”Hochstein arrived Wednesday in Beirut for talks with Lebanese officials, amid efforts to de-escalate tensions between Hezbollah and Israel.
Lebanon has been on a knife's edge since a strike on Beirut's southern suburbs last week killed Hezbollah's top military commander, just hours before the assassination, blamed on Israel, of Hamas' political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. Iran and Hezbollah have vowed revenge, amid fears that retaliatory attacks could spiral into all-out war, with airlines suspending flights to Lebanon and countries imploring foreign nationals to leave. "Hochstein will not offer a solution but he'd rather deliver warnings and threats," pro-Hezbollah al-Akhbar newspaper reported on Wednesday.
Hochstein last visited Beirut and Israel in June in an attempt to avoid a further escalation and to negotiate a ceasefire on Lebanon's border. Meanwhile, international mediators were trying to kickstart stalled cease-fire negotiations between Israel and Hamas with a new round of talks Thursday meant to finally clinch a deal between the sides. But the chances of a breakthrough appear slim. Prior to the meeting, Berri told al-Akhbar that he would have preferred to meet Hochstein after the ceasefire talks. He said he had no idea what information Hochstein would carry to Lebanon.

Mikati urges Hochstein to press Israel to halt its attacks and threats
Naharnet/August 14/2024 
Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati on Wednesday stressed to visiting U.S. mediator Amos Hochstein “the need to press Israel to halt its attacks and threats,” noting that “the gateway for the solution is a ceasefire in Gaza and the implementation of U.N. Security Council resolutions, especially Resolution 1701.”Mikati added that the aforementioned resolution would “guarantee the stability of the south.”Hochstein for his part said that “efforts are underway on the various diplomatic levels and in all capitals to secure the success of the diplomatic solutions that the U.S. and Egyptian presidents and the Qatari emir have called for,” Mikati’s office said. The solution “will be discussed in the Doha meetings that will begin tomorrow and will last several days,” the office added, quoting Hochstein. The U.S. envoy also hoped a ceasefire will be reached in Gaza, which would contribute to halting escalation in the south, adding that Resolution 1701 is the guarantee for stability in the south, Mikati’s press office said.Mikati had earlier told cabinet that “we are before anxious chances for diplomacy.”

Southern Front: Israeli Raid on Marjayoun Kills Two
This Is Beirut/August 14/2024 
An Israeli raid on Wednesday evening targeted the village of Marjayoun, killing two people and wounding four, according to the Ministry of Health’s Emergency Operations Center. Initial information indicated that the dead were members of the ‘Fajr’ force, affiliated with the Jamaa Islamiya group. Another Israeli airstrike reportedly destroyed an empty house in Aita al-Chaab, causing serious damage to the infrastructure, particularly to the water and electricity networks. Earlier in the day, seventeen people were injured in an Israeli drone attack against a motorcycle at the Abbasiya crossroads in the Tyre district. Four people were in critical condition, with the intended target of this attack remaining unclear. A separate airstrike on the town of Rab Thalatheen resulted in two injuries. Heavy Israeli artillery shelling was reported on residential neighborhoods in Hula and the outskirts of Habariyeh and Rashaya al-Foukhar. The Israeli Army announced that its air force hit Hezbollah infrastructure in Aita al-Chaab. In successive statements, Hezbollah claimed responsibility for “shelling the spy equipment in the Metulla site,” claiming “direct hits leading to its destruction.”
It also announced “targeting a gathering of Israeli soldiers in Shtula with rockets, scoring direct hits,” in addition to hitting the Baghdadi position and the Zebdin barracks.

Israeli strike on al-Abbasiyeh wounds 17 as Hezbollah attacks Israeli posts
Naharnet/August 14/2024
Seventeen people were wounded, four of them critically, when an Israeli airstrike targeted the intersection of the southern town of al-Abbasiyeh near Tyre on Wednesday, the Health Ministry said. Another strike meanwhile targeted a house in the southern border town of Rab Tlatine. Hezbollah for its part said it launched suicide drones at a gathering of Israeli troops in the Abirim area in northern Israel in response to the drone assassination of two of its members in Baraashit on Tuesday. It also said that it attacked Israeli posts in Metula, Shtula and al-Baghdadi as well as two other posts in the occupied Shebaa Farms and Kfarshouba Hills.

France's Séjourné to visit Lebanon for key talks: LBCI sources
LBCI/August 14/2024
LBCI sources confirmed that French Foreign Minister Stéphane Séjourné will visit Lebanon tomorrow, Thursday, to hold talks with Speaker of the Parliament Nabih Berri, caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati, and other officials.

Air France and Transavia say they expect to resume flights to Beirut Thursday
Agence France Presse/August 14/2024
Air France and its Transavia subsidiary expect to resume service to Beirut Thursday, which has been suspended since July 29 because of tensions in the Middle East, the French carrier said Wednesday. "At this stage, and subject to the evolution of the security situation at destination, the airline plans to resume its flights between Paris-Charles de Gaulle and Beirut on Thursday, August 15, 2024," Air France said in a communique. "The continuation of operations will be subject to a daily assessment of the local situation," it added.

More than 200 prisoners evacuated from south and Dahieh amid wider war concerns
Associated Press/August 14/2024
Lebanese authorities have evacuated prisoners from police stations in Beirut’s southern suburbs and southern Lebanon to other parts of the country out of concerns about possible war with Israel, judicial and security officials said.
The officials say about 220 prisoners were moved. It comes amid concerns that the ongoing exchange of cross-border fire between Israeli troops and members of the Lebanon-based militant Hezbollah group might expand after Israel killed a top Hezbollah official last month. Hezbollah has vowed to retaliate.
If all-out war breaks out, many fear that Beirut’s southern suburbs and south Lebanon, where Hezbollah has a wide presence, could face intense Israeli airstrikes. The officials say the evacuated prisoners are held on suspicion of committing various crimes such as murder and theft.

What if Lebanon Is Placed on FATF’s Gray List?
Maurice Matta/This Is Beirut/August 14/2024
Wassim Mansuri, the Acting Governor of Lebanon’s Central Bank (BDL), is set to travel to Washington, D.C., in the first week of September, in an attempt to shield Lebanon from being placed on the Financial Action Task Force’s (FATF) gray list, which monitors countries for financial crimes. His visit comes just days before a critical meeting where the organization will determine which nations have met the required standards and which have fallen short. Lebanon has repeatedly received grace periods from the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) last year at the request of the BDL, in the hope that the Lebanese government and official bodies would take the necessary measures to prevent Lebanon from being placed on the gray list. However, to date, none of the promised reforms have been implemented by the Lebanese government, nor has the Parliament succeeded in passing the laws and regulations that FATF deems essential to strengthen Lebanon’s financial system. There’s also a notable lack of judicial decisions against individuals accused of money laundering. As for the measure taken by the BDL, the latest report from the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) confirmed that the exceptional steps implemented by Lebanon’s Central Bank fully comply with the organization’s requirements for countering money laundering and the financing of terrorism. However, the weakest link remains the failure of successive governments and Parliament to enact the required legislation, compounded by the absence of judicial reforms needed to prosecute those the organization identifies as corrupt.
What Lies Ahead for Lebanon?
Wassim Mansuri will be visiting major international capitals to advocate for more time before Lebanon is added to the gray list. He will highlight the importance of the measures implemented by the BDL and Lebanese banks, which comply with international standards for financial transactions, transfers, and anti-money laundering. BDL’s Acting Governor will also argue that placing Lebanon on the gray list could worsen tax evasion, increase money laundering, and undermine the Central Bank’s efforts to address these issues. Once more, the FATF and the MENAFATF (Middle East and North Africa) FATF will question Mansuri about the state’s overall progress on reforms, especially regarding anti-corruption measures and judicial decisions related to money laundering. Information suggests that progress on paramilitary groups has been limited, and Wassim Mansuri is expected to address this issue in the upcoming phase.
When FATF puts a country on the gray list, it subjects that country’s financial and banking activities to international oversight. This will include rigorous monitoring of all money transfers from Lebanon, whether conducted by the government or the BDL, to ensure their legitimacy and purpose. Furthermore, there is a risk that correspondent banks may sever ties with Lebanese banks, which could also restrict the flow of new investments and capital into the Lebanese market.
In recent months, BDL’s Acting Governor has managed to increase the number of correspondent banks dealing with Lebanon, from one to six. In this context, it appears that Mansuri has successfully convinced these banks of BDL’s measures against money laundering and the financing of terrorism. As a result, banking operations and transfers to and from Lebanon are likely to remain stable, even if FATF decides to place Lebanon on the gray list. This situation mirrors what has occurred with several countries worldwide, such as the UAE and Monaco, which were later removed from the gray list after implementing the required reforms. To this end, Wassim Mansuri visited the US Departments of State and Treasury, as well as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, to persuade decision-makers that the actions and measures taken by BDL and Lebanese banks meet FATF’s standards for compliance with international laws and transparency. According to Mansuri’s sources, BDL’s Acting Governor has informed relevant stakeholders that placing Lebanon on the gray list would undermine the Central Bank’s efforts, increase the risks of money laundering, and further isolate a country already grappling with dwindling liquidity. During his meetings in the US, Wassim Mansuri managed to persuade some stakeholders, but was less successful with others. Although he did not secure a definitive agreement to delay Lebanon’s placement on the gray list, his sources confirm that correspondent banks are committed to continuing their operations with Lebanon, even if it is added to the gray list. Furthermore, FATF and the correspondent banks agree that the real issue lies not with the Central Bank and the banks, but with the government and the judicial authorities. Therefore, the MENAFATF is committed to not severing financial and banking relations with Lebanon and to ensuring that regular banking activities are not subject to any potential punitive measures. From this standpoint, placing Lebanon on the gray list could be seen as a tactic to pressure Lebanese authorities into addressing the risks at hand. Failure to address these issues promptly could lead to more severe consequences.

Cabinet Meeting: LBP 150 Billion to the High Relief Commission
This Is Beirut/August 14/2024
The caretaker government of Prime Minister Najib Mikati announced on Wednesday the allocation of LBP 150 billion for the urgent needs of the High Relief Commission, amidst growing risks of an open conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. The announcement was made at the end of a cabinet meeting that focused on a national emergency plan, according to the Minister of Environment, Nasser Yassin. “This plan has been elaborated in coordination with local administrations and the governors who have revitalized the crisis management committees,” Yassin said. In this context, Mikati gave instructions to guarantee credits in the event of aggression, insisting that these allocated funds “be spent with absolute transparency and in compliance with all the mechanisms and procedures for monitoring and controlling expenditure.”Yassin pointed out that “the caretaker Prime Minister would give final approval for the allocation of these funds.”“These would be gradually increased to meet urgent needs of the Ministry of Health and crisis management committees in the governorates, as well as equipping 200 schools to adapt them as shelters in the event of intensified attacks,” he added. Yassin concluded that cooperation with international organizations is also underway. In response to a question about the electricity issue, Minister of Information Ziad Makary asserted that the problem would be solved before Saturday. “Part of the fuel oil required will be purchased on the Lebanese market, with the funds being provided by the Electricity company,” he said. At the beginning of the session, Mikati announced his decision to withdraw temporarily from the agenda of the Council of Ministers, the items on filling vacancies in certain administrations. He reiterated the call “to speed up the election of a President of the Republic, condemning “sterile debates” in this regard, and reaffirmed “Lebanon’s clear position” on the conflict in the South, which is to “strictly respect the provisions of UN Security Council Resolution 1701.”

Former Finance Minister George Corm Passed Away at 84

This Is Beirut/August 14/2024
Former Finance Minister and renowned economist and historian George Corm passed away on Wednesday at the age of 84. He served as Minister of Finance in the government of Prime Minister Salim Hoss from 1998 to 2000. Corm studied at the Institut d’Études Politiques de Paris (1958–1961), where he graduated in Public Finance and also has a PhD from Paris University in Constitutional Law (1969). He authored books and numerous studies and articles on economic, social, and political affairs in Arab and international scholarly journals. His books have been translated into several languages. He was also an economic consultant to international organizations and a professor at Saint Joseph University.

Is the Unification of Fronts a Realistic Approach?

Rami Rayess/This Is Beirut/August 14/2024
The slogan “unification of fronts” was popularized many years ago among the members of the “Axis of resistance,” or “Moumanaa axis,” which includes Iran, Syria, a number of Iraqi factions, the Houthis of Yemen, Hezbollah and the Islamic Jihad organization. Hamas, also a member, had distanced itself from the axis during the Arab spring, then joined it again afterwards. The war waged by Israel against the Gaza Strip, as a reaction to Hamas’ October 7 attack, is still ongoing. These events constitute a serious challenge to the Axis of Resistance, as its unity is put to the test. Its lack of collective action in these trying times – whether politically or militarily – has cast doubts over the applicability of its slogan, allowing Israel more room for provocation as it continues to violate the sovereignty of Lebanon and Syria, all the way to Iran. As a matter of fact, the Hebrew State did assassinate Ismail Haniyeh, the chairman of Hamas’ political bureau, in the heart of Tehran.On October 8, Hezbollah targeted the occupied Palestinian Territories, calling it a “support front,” given the events unfolding in Gaza. A few weeks later, the Houthis fired their first rockets at Eilat and other areas located thousands of kilometers away. As for Syria, only a few rockets were launched from its territory before everything was brought to a halt. Although nothing points to a possible Syrian participation in the conflict, the Syrian territory, including Damascus International Airport, has been subjected to continuous violations at the hands of Israel.
Some have criticized the axis of resistance, saying that Gaza is currently witnessing a genocide and that the “unification of fronts” should be achieved now more than ever. That being said, it is clear that this is easier said than done, given that the international powers are the ones calling the shots in the entire Middle East. Additionally, the elimination of Israel, as proposed by some theorists from the Moumanaa, is impossible and inconceivable by the West, no matter the costs. The whole world has witnessed visits from Western leaders to Israel, as early as the first week of the war – the first of which being the American President Joe Biden. His move came as a surprise to many, as Biden seldom travels to war-ridden countries, let alone in the first week. One can therefore say that the axis of resistance faces major challenges, not the least because it lacks the means – it clearly does not, and Israel is well aware of that –, but because waging an all-out war could drag the entire region into the shifting sands of unpredictability, potentially destroying the entire Middle East.On the other hand, the “circumstances” of some members of the axis of resistance could contribute to more rationality in political and military decision-making. It is no secret that some parties, like Iran and Syria, are heavily impacted by American and international sanctions imposed on them. They are struggling, politically and socially, and don’t have the capacity to withstand open war.Moreover, the Lebanese people’s conflicting views on the war – some local political parties are vocally opposing the potential spread of the conflict to Lebanon – are forcing Hezbollah to stray slightly from the axis to avoid further strife internally. In any case, it is imperative that the Lebanese remain united in the present circumstances, especially given the absence of a President and the total paralysis of the country’s institutions. Uncertainty is now casting its shadow over the whole region, and the political transition in the United States is likely to make things even worse. After all, the withdrawal of Joe Biden from the upcoming elections and the candidacy of Vice President Kamala Harris complicates the situation even further. Most importantly, the Middle East must not explode in the meantime.

Kanaan Addresses Unity Amidst FPM Internal Strife
This Is Beirut/August 14/2024
Strong Lebanon MP, Ibrahim Kanaan, held a press conference on Wednesday to clarify what he described as “media statements, interpretations and leaks, as well as questions about my position”.In the wake of the expulsion of MP Alain Aoun on August 1 and MP Simon Abi Ramia’s resignation on August 7, rumors have swirled about Kanaan’s resignation from the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM). Kanaan did not tender his resignation as was expected but rather pushed the can down the road in an attempt to “patch things up” within his political group. The Metn MP conducted a lengthy press conference to clarify his position, emphasizing his determination to safeguard the unity of the FPM. He clarified, regarding his colleagues who had already left the FPM, that “no one has left the movement voluntarily […] All those involved have publicly stated or communicated with the movement’s leadership, expressing their reluctance to separate from the FPM.”Kanaan described the press conference as a “serious attempt” to foster profound dialogue based on partisan principles, solidarity, and unity. He called for a reversal of all previous decisions such as exclusions, resignations and suspensions from the FPM. He also asked to put an end to media campaigns between members of his political group. He set a one-week timeframe to resolve the issue of commitment through direct dialogue and adherence to the political group’s principles. He also called for respect for the FPM’s decisions, emphasizing a clear and transparent democratic process and effective participation in decision-making. This stance addresses allegations that the FPM’s current head, MP Gebran Bassil, adopts a dictatorial approach to party governance. Kanaan also suggested a retreat for the parliamentary bloc to outline political and national priorities for the next stage, “as has been our custom since our founding”. He concluded by stressing that “the state is more important than the party and should come before it.”

Moving Cameras and Shoes Hanging on the Wall: Unraveling the Mystery Behind this Family’s Grave
LBCI/August 14/2024
Moving cameras and shoes hanging on the house’s wall reflect the peculiar practices of those living inside a house in Kfarshima. There, you can find a house, trees, and many tools, with a room just a few meters from the house where five bodies were found. Inside the house, a woman asks everyone who enters about her son, Christo. However, Christo was being interrogated at the Hadath police station by the Internal Security Forces. His statement reveals that the five bodies belong to his father, Habib, and four of his brothers: George, Khalil, Bashar, and Elias. The room is the family’s burial site, and the residents are aware of it. According to Christo, the burials began in the room in 1986. Notably, Christo’s statement revealed that his brother Elias, whom neighbors and authorities believed to be alive, actually died on July 26th, just two weeks ago. Christo confirmed that he buried Elias himself without informing anyone or having a religious figure present to honor his brother’s wish. Christo’s statement further noted that his father and brothers Bashar and Elias died of natural causes, while Khalil committed suicide with a hunting rifle in 2000. He added that Khalil had killed his brother George in 1986 with a Kalashnikov rifle.
Forensic teams, accompanied by a coroner, inspected the bodies and collected DNA samples to verify that they indeed belonged to the family members as Christo described. The coroner confirmed that Elias’ death was natural. However, questions remain about Christo’s failure to report the deaths or arrange for a religious ceremony. Meanwhile, security forces obtained the DVR from the cameras placed on the house’s perimeter for review. The case has been referred to the Information Branch of the Internal Security Forces for further investigation.
Investigators have interviewed a religious figure who confirmed knowledge of the room where the family members were buried. The case came to light on Tuesday after the Lebanese Army Intelligence Directorate received additional complaints about improper actions, thefts, and strange behaviors by brothers Christo and Elias. However, upon raiding the premises, the five bodies were discovered in the room.

Will Israel restore security to the north?
Enia Krivine/Jewish News Syndicate/August 14/2024
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2024/08/133256/
If Hezbollah mounts a significant attack, Israel should declare war and establish a fully demilitarized zone between the border and the Litani River.
After multiple reports that Iran and Hezbollah will strike Israel in a matter of hours or days, the White House, the Kremlin and other regional actors are working overtime to convince Tehran and its proxies to stand down. But for Israel, this may be the moment to deliver a decisive blow to its adversaries that will restore security and prosperity to the citizens of Israel’s north. The United States must make clear that it will support any Israeli counteroffensive. Since the Iran-backed Hamas terror group launched its war with Israel last year, Jerusalem has focused its efforts on fighting in Gaza and maintained a mostly defensive posture on its northern border. That changed last month when the Iran-backed terror group Hezbollah killed 12 Druze children on a soccer field and Israel responded forcefully, killing two senior terror figures in Beirut and Tehran. Now there is a pregnant pause as the Iranian axis decides how to respond.
The White House is pushing all sides to stand down as Washington shepherds yet another round of hostage negotiations between Israel and Hamas. The Biden administration believes that if it can get a hostage deal and end the war in Gaza, Hezbollah will stop attacking Israel, bringing calm to the region at least until the November elections in the U.S.
As the world waits to see if Iran and its regional subsidiaries will cave to international pressure and stand down or instead choose to take the region into a sharp escalation, a maelstrom of rumors and disinformation is swirling. According to Aug. 11 reports, Iran planned to hold its fire long enough for hostage negotiations scheduled for Aug. 15 to take place. However, more recent reporting speculates that Iran plans to strike Israel imminently, irrespective of the negotiations. Similar conflicting reports continue to swirl regarding Hezbollah’s plans to attack Israel. Meanwhile, the Biden administration has moved significant firepower to the region in an attempt to deter military escalation, including an additional carrier strike group carrying F-35s and a guided missile submarine announced by DOD on Aug. 12. But even if Iran and its axis bow to international pressure and hold their fire long enough for Washington to conclude a deal that ends the war in Gaza, brings the hostages home and spurs Hezbollah to announce a ceasefire, Israel will not have lasting security in the north.
Hezbollah, after all, will still maintain an arsenal of 150,000 rockets and missiles near Israel’s border that it can unleash against its neighbor at any moment. Israel’s northern communities will remain vulnerable to attacks from terrorists that infiltrate the border.
Hezbollah began targeting the Jewish state with rockets and other projectiles on Oct. 8, pummeling Israeli homes, farms and businesses. In an unprecedented move, Jerusalem ordered the evacuation of 43 northern Israeli communities along the Lebanese border, leaving approximately 80,000 Israelis internally displaced. U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken admitted that Israel had “lost sovereignty” of its northern border region. Despite the evacuations, Hezbollah rockets and drones have killed dozens of Israelis who remained. The Jewish state has conducted limited airstrikes in response to Hezbollah attacks, but neither side has unleashed its full potential yet. Israel has not even officially declared war on its northern border. Instead, the Jewish state has devoted the bulk of its attention to defeating Hamas in Gaza. Even if the U.S. succeeds in brokering a deal with Hamas that delivers a ceasefire with Hezbollah, Israelis will not return to their homes in the north unless there is a credible buffer zone between the Israeli communities and the Hezbollah terrorists that have de facto rule of southern Lebanon.
After witnessing Hamas rape, slaughter and abduct their countrymen on Oct. 7, Israelis are understandably reluctant to live a stone’s throw away from another, even more capable Islamist terror organization. Only a major blow to Hezbollah that pushes the terror organization away from Israel’s border will restore security to Israel’s northern communities—a prerequisite for Israeli families to return. As long as there is any hope—however slim—of bringing home the hostages from Gaza, the Jewish state must pursue negotiations with Hamas. If the international community can restrain Iran and its axis long enough to conclude a deal that brings the hostages home and delivers some quiet to Israel’s northern communities, the north will likely remain neglected and underpopulated while the threat of Hezbollah looms. That is a sacrifice that Israelis can probably live with for a while. However, if Hezbollah mounts a significant attack on Israel in the coming days, then Israel should declare war on the group and take the military steps necessary to establish a fully demilitarized zone between Israel’s border and the Litani River, as called for in United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701. If Israel chooses this path and goes on the offensive, Washington must support it. Only by restraining Hezbollah and returning Israeli sovereignty to the north can Israel guarantee the security it seeks and deserves.
**Enia Krivine is the senior director of the Israel Program and the FDD National Security Network at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Follow Enia on Twitter @EKrivine.
https://www.jns.org/will-israel-restore-security-to-the-north/

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on August 14-15/2024
An unusual announcement about a US Navy submarine packed with cruise missiles is a loud message that puts Iran on notice
Chris Panella/Business Insider/August 14, 2024
The US publicly announced the deployment of a US Navy guided-missile submarine to the Middle East. The announcement is unusual and a clear signal of deterrence as an attack from Iran and its proxies appears imminent. USS Georgia is a significant threat capable of destructive missile strikes. In a rather unusual move, the US overtly revealed its plans over the weekend for the movement of a guided-missile submarine into Middle Eastern waters as regional tensions soar. The announcement is a clear and intentional warning to Iran and its proxies amid concerns that coming actions could send the region spiraling into further violence. On Sunday, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin ordered the Ohio-class guided-missile submarine USS Georgia to the Middle East, where the warship will join many other naval assets positioned across the US Central Command area of responsibility and in the nearby Eastern Mediterranean.
As of Tuesday, the submarine had yet to arrive in the area, Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder, the Pentagon press secretary, told reporters. The Georgia is still on its way, as are other assets like the Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group, which was also deployed to boost the US naval presence in and around the region.
A large ship at sea on the right and a smaller ship in the background on the left. The aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln follows the guided-missile cruiser USS Cape St. George in the Strait of Hormuz in May 2012.US Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Alex R. Forst. Such a public announcement on the movements of a cruise-missile submarine, also known as an SSGN, is significant and unusual, Bryan Clark, a former US Navy officer and defense expert at the Hudson Institute, told Business Insider.
Typically, he said, two or three of the four US SSGNs would be at sea at a given time, "and it would not be unusual for one to be in the Central Command region." "What is unusual is for the US to announce that it is moving," he explained. "Normally, the DoD does not discuss submarine operations. The public announcement suggests an intent to deter Iranian aggression," he said, referring to the Department of Defense by its acronym. The US military has engaged in this sort of signaling in other instances as well. For instance, as tensions in the Middle East began to skyrocket last fall, the US military posted photos of another SSGN transiting the Suez Canal. And more recently, the US Navy put out photos of a ballistic missile sub in waters off northern Europe in another flex of US naval might. Still, the practice of announcing submarine movements is uncommon. "Secretary Austin actually saying the Georgia is going to be in the area is extremely unusual, but it's sending that deterrence signal to a lot of people who might be considering what they're going to do next within the region," retired Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling, the former top Army general in Europe, told CNN this week.
Iran has vowed to take revenge after recent assassinations of top Hezbollah and Hamas leaders, which it blames on Israel. The stated intent in Tehran and among its proxies to retaliate has sparked concerns over a potential all-out regional conflict, putting the US, Israel, and other allies on higher alert.
In an effort to deter Iran, the Pentagon has deployed additional military assets to the Middle East. Along with his announcement of the Georgia's deployment, the secretary of defense has also ordered the Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group, equipped with F-35C fighter jets, to accelerate its transit to the area. These moves build on a previous order that also called for the movement of fifth-generation fighters and warships armed with the ability to engage ballistic missiles into position in and around the Middle East. "These US military force posture adjustments are designed to improve US force protection, to increase our support for the defense of Israel, and to ensure the United States is prepared to respond to a wide variety of contingencies," Ryder said Tuesday. The Pentagon press secretary added that Austin and his Israeli counterpart, Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant, had discussed a variety of topics during a Sunday phone call, including "our efforts to deter aggression by Iran, Lebanese Hezbollah, and other Iran-aligned groups across the region."
The ability to send stealthy, highly capable submarines off the coasts of US adversaries reflects the far-reaching might of the US Navy. Deploying a guided-missile submarine such as the Georgia to the Middle East also gives the US a major firepower boost. The Georgia is carrying over 150 Tomahawk missiles, making "it a significant strike threat" to a variety of key Iranian military assets, Clark said. "While aircraft would need to fly over Iranian territory to attack targets deep inside the country, such as the nuclear weapons facilities or ballistic missile launchers, the Georgia could position itself offshore of Iran and hit any spot inside the country with missiles," he explained. That adds a significant capability to the US forces in the area in the event of a conflict. Ryder said Tuesday, though, that the primary US goal is preventing a fight in the first place. "Our focus is on de-escalating the situation," he said. "We have put these additional capabilities into the region to enable us, as I highlighted, to protect our forces, but also to support the defense of Israel should it be attacked."

Blinken postpones Middle East trip amid ‘uncertainty,’ approves $20bn Israel weapons package
Reuters/August 13, 2024
WASHINGTON: US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has postponed his trip to the Middle East, delaying his planned Tuesday departure, Axios reported ahead of planned Gaza ceasefire talks this week. The top US diplomat’s travel was delayed over “uncertainty about the situation,” Axios said, citing two unnamed sources. On Tuesday, Hamas fired two rockets aimed at Tel Aviv for the first time in months while Israel launched separate deadly airstrikes in Gaza. On Monday, US officials had said they expected Thursday’s talks to continue as planned. Also on Tuesday, Blinken approved the possible sale to Israel of fighter jets and other military equipment worth over $20 billion, the Pentagon said. In a statement, the Pentagon said Blinken approved the possible sale of F-15 jets and equipment worth nearly $19 billion. He also approved the possible sale of tank cartridges worth around $774 million and army vehicles worth $583 million, the Pentagon said. The tank rounds would be almost immediately available for delivery. The Boeing Co. F-15 fighter jets would take years to produce and deliver. The US has staunchly supported Israel as its top Middle East ally prosecutes a war in the Gaza Strip that has devastated the Palestinian enclave. The war was set off by the militant group Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack in southern Israel. While approving weapons to Israel, Washington has also tried to arrange a ceasefire deal in Gaza that would potentially stave off a wider Middle East war. Fears of a broader war have increased since the recent killings of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran and Hezbollah military commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut. Both drew threats of retaliation against Israel.

Israeli spy chiefs to attend Gaza talks in Doha: PM’s office
Arab News/August 14, 2024
JERUSALEM: Israel’s spy chiefs will attend talks in Doha on Thursday seeking a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal after more than 10 months of war, the prime minister’s office said on Wednesday. “Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has approved the departure of the Israeli delegation to Doha tomorrow, as well as the mandate for conducting the negotiations,” a statement said. The head of Israel’s Mossad spy agency, David Barnea, and Shin Bet security service chief Ronen Bar are part of the team, Netanyahu’s spokesman Omer Dostri told AFP. “The head of the Mossad, the head of the Shin Bet, Nitzan Alon and Ophir Falk” make up the team, Dostri said. Alon coordinates issues related to hostages, and Falk is a political adviser to Netanyahu. Palestinian militant group Hamas has not said whether it would send negotiators to Doha. A Hamas official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told AFP that “negotiations with the mediators are continuing and have even intensified in recent hours.” “Hamas wants the Biden plan imposed and doesn’t want to negotiate just to negotiate,” the official said, referring a ceasefire proposal laid out in late May by US President Joe Biden. “We have to force the (Israeli) occupation government to stop its policy, which consists of dragging out the negotiations, and force it to stop massacring our people.”

Qatar will try to convince Hamas to participate in peace talks
Associated Press/August 14, 2024
Qatar will seek to convince Hamas to participate in Thursday’s peace talks over the war in Gaza, a U.S. State Department official said. Hamas has so far declined to agree to take part in ceasefire negotiations, which take place amid fears that tensions between Israel and Iran could escalate following Israel’s killing of Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh. “Our partners in Qatar have assured us that they will work to have Hamas represented,” U.S. State Department spokesperson Vedant Patel said during a briefing with reporters on Tuesday. Patel declined to respond to questions about specific demands made by either side but said American efforts are focused on preventing greater violence and ending humanitarian suffering in the region. “We are working around the clock every day,” Patel said of peace talks. “Everyone in the region should understand that further attacks only perpetuate conflict and instability and insecurity for everyone.”Patel said the U.S. continues to stand with Israel and will support its ally in the face of any Iranian retaliation for Haniyeh’s death. “We certainly won’t hesitate to defend Israel as well as our personnel from not just attacks from Iran but from Iranian-backed proxies as well.”

New round of Gaza cease-fire talks is starting. Why is a deal so elusive?
Associated Press/August 14, 2024
International mediators are hoping to kickstart stalled cease-fire negotiations between Israel and Hamas with a new round of talks meant to finally clinch a deal between the sides. But the chances of a breakthrough appear slim.The new talks are set to begin Thursday, but Israel and Hamas have been mulling an internationally-backed proposal for more than two months that would wind down the 10-month-long war and free the roughly 110 hostages still held in Gaza. The indirect talks have not advanced substantively during that time and sticking points remain. New terms put forward have complicated progress. And Hamas has yet to say outright whether it will participate in the new round. Meanwhile, the fighting in Gaza rages on, the hostages continue to languish in captivity, and fears of an all-out regional war involving Iran and one of its regional proxies, Hezbollah, have surged. The killing of Hamas' top leader in Tehran in an apparent Israeli attack further plunged the talks into uncertainty. Here is a look at the proposed cease-fire deal and why talks have stalled:
What does the proposal look like?
On May 31, U.S. President Joe Biden detailed what he said was an Israeli cease-fire proposal, calling it "a road map" to a lasting truce and freedom for the hostages. It set off the most concentrated U.S. push to bring about an end to the war, which was sparked by Hamas' Oct. 7 attacks on southern Israel. The original proposal involved three phases. The first would last for six weeks and include a "full and complete cease-fire," a withdrawal of Israeli forces from all densely populated areas of Gaza, and the release of a number of hostages, including women, the elderly and the wounded, in exchange for the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. Palestinian civilians would be able to return to their homes and humanitarian aid would be increased. The two sides would use that six-week period to negotiate an agreement on the second phase, which Biden said would include the release of all remaining living hostages, including male soldiers, and Israel's full withdrawal from Gaza. The temporary cease-fire would become permanent. The third phase would kick off a major reconstruction of Gaza, which faces decades of rebuilding from the devastation caused by the war.
What are the sticking points?
Even though Biden threw his weight behind the proposal, it has not led to a breakthrough and the sides appear to have grown further apart in the weeks since. Israel has been wary of the plan's provision that the initial cease-fire would be extended as long as negotiations continued over the second phase. Israel seems concerned that Hamas would drag on endlessly with fruitless negotiations. Hamas has appeared concerned that Israel would resume the war once its most vulnerable hostages were returned, a scenario reflected in some of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's recent comments. Israel could also make demands during this stage of negotiations that were not part of the initial deal and would be unacceptable to Hamas — and then resume the war when Hamas refuses them. Israel has added additional demands to the initial proposal in recent weeks, according to two Egyptian officials with knowledge of the talks. In a statement Tuesday, Netanyahu's office denied this, calling the additional terms "essential clarifications." It said Hamas has made 29 additions, without specifying which. The Egyptian officials said Israel seeks to maintain control of a strip of land along Gaza's border with Egypt known as the Philadelphi corridor. Israel believes Hamas uses the area to smuggle in weapons through underground tunnels, which Egypt denies. Israel also wants to maintain forces along an east-west route that bisects Gaza so that they can weed out any militants crossing into the territory's north. Netanyahu's office has said Israel wants some way to ensure this, but it denied accusations that this was an additional condition. Hamas has rejected the idea, saying Israel would use it as a pretext to prevent Palestinians from returning to their homes. The Egyptian officials and Netanyahu's office said Israel also wants veto power over the Palestinian prisoners who would be freed. Hamas refuses to compromise on the issue, they said. Israel also wants a list of the hostages who are still alive — another condition rejected by Hamas, according to the officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they weren't authorized to discuss the sensitive talks with the media.
What else is complicating progress?
The talks were further thrown into disarray last month when a blast killed Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh while he was in Tehran for the Iranian president's inauguration. The attack was widely blamed on Israel, which has not confirmed or denied it. Biden said the apparent assassination had "not helped" cease-fire efforts, and the talks were driven into a deep freeze. That killing came just hours after Israel assassinated a top Hezbollah commander in a strike in Beirut. Both strikes drew threats of retaliation from Iran and Hezbollah, and the fear of an all-out regional war diverted international attention away from efforts to wind down the fighting in Gaza. The killings spurred a flurry of diplomatic activity and led the U.S. to direct military assets to the region. Both Netanyahu and Hamas' new top leader, Yahya Sinwar, have incentives to continue the war. Netanyahu's critics say he is dragging out the war for his own political survival. His far-right coalition partners have pledged to topple the government if he agrees to a cease-fire, what could trigger elections that might oust him from power. Netanyahu has said he has the country's best interests in mind. Hamas has gained from the international condemnation that Israel has faced because of the war. And on a personal level, Haniyeh's killing has shown that Sinwar's own life could be on the line if he surfaces once the war ends.

Iran’s mixed signals leave some allies in the dark and set region on edge
Tamara Qiblawi, CNN/August 14, 2024
The mood in Lebanon’s restive capital has darkened in the two weeks since Israel’s July 30 attack in southern Beirut that killed Iran-backed Hezbollah’s top commander Fu’ad Shukr and four civilians. The city woke up the next morning to find that another Iran-supported official, Hamas’ political leader Ismail Haniyeh, had been killed in an assassination in the heart of the Iranian capital, Tehran. The chances of war, for months stowed away into the deeper crevices of this city’s psyche, had grown manifold. “Do you think I am sitting in Hezbollah’s war room?” said one exasperated political leader with ties to the powerful Beirut-based armed group. “I have no idea what’s going to happen next. You probably know more than I do.”Other officials in contact with Iran and Hezbollah said they were similarly in the dark as to how Tehran and its allied non-state fighting groups might deliver the “severe revenge” its top military officials, and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, have promised. Israel said the attack in Beirut served as a response to a rocket strike that killed 12 children in the town of Majdal Shams, in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, which it blamed on Hezbollah. Hezbollah has vehemently denied the charge. In his televised addresses since then, Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah said a response to the attack in southern Beirut was “inevitable,” dismissing Western attempts to prevent a retaliatory strike as futile. But he was scant on the details. “God willing, our response is coming,” Nasrallah declared solemnly in one address.
“We may act alone, or we may act with the axis,” he said, referring to the Iran-backed network of armed groups that span Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Lebanon. The alliance of fighting groups has been referred to by some Israeli commentators as a “ring of fire” around Israel – no match for Israel’s military might but with a strategic depth that sends jitters through the country as it awaits Hezbollah and Iran’s anticipated attacks.The messaging from Iran and its powerful non-state partner seems cryptic by design. Nasrallah and his backers have touted the benefits of the “psychological war” in which Israelis brace for an attack, with little sense of when that might come and what form it might take.
But there are also indications that Tehran is dragging its feet, held back by the prospect of triggering a wider war. One diplomat said he believed that Hezbollah and Iran had “trapped themselves” in their own vows of reprisals. Some have suggested that a possible ceasefire deal in Gaza may serve as an off-ramp, as the international community gears up for talks in Doha on Thursday. Iran has rejected the idea. The consequences of any reprisal are difficult to foresee. Both Iran and Hezbollah are looking to thread an extremely narrow needle, where they produce enough impact to deter future attacks on the Lebanese and Iranian capitals but stop short of igniting an all-out war. This may prove impossible. There is a widespread view that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu must keep a war going in order to keep his growing domestic problems at bay. Iran, its non-state actors, and even the international community, appear powerless to stop it.
“There is no deterrence to be re-established,” said Mohammad Shabani, Iran analyst and editor of Amwaj.media, an online outlet covering the region. “This is going to go on, and over time this is going to be very dangerous.” It is possible that Iran and Hezbollah may have come to terms with this, recognizing that the open-endedness of their messaging around the anticipated response may be the strongest weapon at their disposal. On most nights over the last two weeks, Israeli and US officials sounded alarms about an imminent response. This has not yet come to pass. It draws a striking contrast with the last time the region was on the brink of an all-out war, when Iran responded in April to an Israeli attack on its consulate in Damascus with a massive swarm of airborne weapons that were largely shot down by Israel and its allies. In the days that led up to that attack, diplomats and officials close to Hezbollah to whom CNN spoke in Lebanon had a rough idea about what Iran’s retaliation would look like: a show of force calibrated to cause very limited damage. Their estimates about the timeframe were largely accurate.
Iran at the time was telegraphing its next move through US allies in the region. Today, there is no evidence of that happening.
“There’s definitely an element of psychological warfare to this delay,” said Shabani. “But while you’re keeping the Israelis guessing, you’re also keeping the Lebanese and the Iranians on alert.” Uncharacteristically, Nasrallah conceded in his last speech that the killing of Shukr and Haniyeh must be considered “successes scored by Israel.” That sense of failure is palpable in Lebanon and in Tehran, where political tensions are on the rise and the economy has taken a hit. In Tehran, the Haniyeh assassination happened a day after the inauguration of Iran’s first reformist president in decades, Masoud Pezeshkian. Western analysts said Pezeshkian’s election could remedy rifts with the West. But the attack that killed Haniyeh has put a damper on those hopes. In Beirut, the summer season is normally a boon for the struggling economy. Fireworks that lit up the night sky in the days leading up to Israel’s attack in southern Beirut have given way to sonic booms produced by Israeli jets breaking the sound barrier overhead, shaking windows and keeping frightened Lebanese families at home. “I cannot think about what happens next,” said the political leader with ties to Hezbollah who CNN spoke to. “All I can do is make the appropriate preparations to help my community in case the worst happens.”
CNN’s Ben Wedeman, Sarah El Sirgany, Crendon Greenway and Charbel Mallo contributed reporting.

A new round of Gaza cease-fire talks is starting. Why is a deal so elusive?
Tia Goldenberg And Samy Magdy/August 14, 2024
International mediators are hoping to kickstart stalled cease-fire negotiations between Israel and Hamas with a new round of talks meant to finally clinch a deal between the sides. But the chances of a breakthrough appear slim. The new talks are set to begin Thursday, but Israel and Hamas have been mulling an internationally-backed proposal for more than two months that would wind down the 10-month-long war and free the roughly 110 hostages still held in Gaza. The indirect talks have not advanced substantively during that time and sticking points remain. New terms put forward have complicated progress. And Hamas has yet to say outright whether it will participate in the new round. Meanwhile, the fighting in Gaza rages on, the hostages continue to languish in captivity, and fears of an all-out regional war involving Iran and one of its regional proxies, Hezbollah, have surged. The killing of Hamas’ top leader in Tehran in an apparent Israeli attack further plunged the talks into uncertainty. Here is a look at the proposed cease-fire deal and why talks have stalled:
What does the proposal look like?
On May 31, U.S. President Joe Biden detailed what he said was an Israeli cease-fire proposal, calling it “a road map" to a lasting truce and freedom for the hostages. It set off the most concentrated U.S. push to bring about an end to the war, which was sparked by Hamas’ Oct. 7 attacks on southern Israel.
The original proposal involved three phases. The first would last for six weeks and include a “full and complete cease-fire,” a withdrawal of Israeli forces from all densely populated areas of Gaza, and the release of a number of hostages, including women, the elderly and the wounded, in exchange for the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. Palestinian civilians would be able to return to their homes and humanitarian aid would be increased. The two sides would use that six-week period to negotiate an agreement on the second phase, which Biden said would include the release of all remaining living hostages, including male soldiers, and Israel’s full withdrawal from Gaza. The temporary cease-fire would become permanent. The third phase would kick off a major reconstruction of Gaza, which faces decades of rebuilding from the devastation caused by the war.
What are the sticking points?
Even though Biden threw his weight behind the proposal, it has not led to a breakthrough and the sides appear to have grown further apart in the weeks since. Israel has been wary of the plan’s provision that the initial cease-fire would be extended as long as negotiations continued over the second phase. Israel seems concerned that Hamas would drag on endlessly with fruitless negotiations. Hamas has appeared concerned that Israel would resume the war once its most vulnerable hostages were returned, a scenario reflected in some of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's recent comments. Israel could also make demands during this stage of negotiations that were not part of the initial deal and would be unacceptable to Hamas — and then resume the war when Hamas refuses them. Israel has added additional demands to the initial proposal in recent weeks, according to two Egyptian officials with knowledge of the talks. In a statement Tuesday, Netanyahu's office denied this, calling the additional terms “essential clarifications.” It said Hamas has made 29 additions, without specifying which.The Egyptian officials said Israel seeks to maintain control of a strip of land along Gaza’s border with Egypt known as the Philadelphi corridor. Israel believes Hamas uses the area to smuggle in weapons through underground tunnels, which Egypt denies.Israel also wants to maintain forces along an east-west route that bisects Gaza so that they can weed out any militants crossing into the territory's north. Netanyahu's office has said Israel wants some way to ensure this, but it denied accusations that this was an additional condition. Hamas has rejected the idea, saying Israel would use it as a pretext to prevent Palestinians from returning to their homes. The Egyptian officials and Netanyahu's office said Israel also wants veto power over the Palestinian prisoners who would be freed. Hamas refuses to compromise on the issue, they said. Israel also wants a list of the hostages who are still alive — another condition rejected by Hamas, according to the officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they weren’t authorized to discuss the sensitive talks with the media.
What else is complicating progress?
The talks were further thrown into disarray last month when a blast killed Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh while he was in Tehran for the Iranian president’s inauguration. The attack was widely blamed on Israel, which has not confirmed or denied it. Biden said the apparent assassination had “not helped” cease-fire efforts, and the talks were driven into a deep freeze. That killing came just hours after Israel assassinated a top Hezbollah commander in a strike in Beirut. Both strikes drew threats of retaliation from Iran and Hezbollah, and the fear of an all-out regional war diverted international attention away from efforts to wind down the fighting in Gaza. The killings spurred a flurry of diplomatic activity and led the U.S. to direct military assets to the region. Both Netanyahu and Hamas' new top leader, Yahya Sinwar, have incentives to continue the war. Netanyahu's critics say he is dragging out the war for his own political survival. His far-right coalition partners have pledged to topple the government if he agrees to a cease-fire, what could trigger elections that might oust him from power. Netanyahu has said he has the country's best interests in mind. Hamas has gained from the international condemnation that Israel has faced because of the war. And on a personal level, Haniyeh's killing has shown that Sinwar's own life could be on the line if he surfaces once the war ends.

Israel Is The 'Most Moral Country In The World', UN Ambassador Claims In Dramatic Goodbye Speech
Kate Nicholson/HuffPost UK/August 14, 2024
Israel’s ambassador to the UN claimed his state is the “most moral country in the world” during his departure speech on Tuesday. Gilad Erdan was speaking at a UN Security Council meeting in New York about the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, following a particularly deadly strike from Israel on a school in Gaza. Erdan – who announced he was stepping down months ago – said: “I have been immensely, immensely, proud to represent my country here. “The most moral country in the world. The most moral country in the world!” At this point, he gestured to the Palestinian ambassador Riyad Mansour, saying: “You listen, Palestinian representative?” Mansour gestured back at him, pointing to the rest of the room (although that was not entirely clear why). Erdan continued: “In this warped place, I hope one day you will also see the bias and pervasion of morality here, and I pray that you will see the truth. “The terrorist organisation that that guy represents here and tyrannical regimes should be condemned, not protected, and Israel should be praised. “We are today the vanguard of civilisation. We are the vanguard of civilisation! But until then, Am Yisrael Chai. Thank you.”Aim Yisrael Chai is a Hebrew phrase to convey solidarity, which translates to “the people of Israel live”.He then got up and left after finishing his speech, although most delegates remained sat in the meeting. Israel’s relationship with the UN has become increasingly tense since the Hamas killed 1,200 people on Israeli soil and took approximately 250 others hostage in October. Israel then declared war, invaded the Palestinian territory of Gaza and imposed a blockade on international aid going into the region. Around 40,000 Palestinians are estimated to have been killed since the war began. The UN’s secretary-general Antonio Guterres sparked Israeli fury after saying that Hamas’ attacks “did not happen in a vacuum” and calling for a two-state solution. On Tuesday, delegates gathered to discuss the Israeli strikes on al-Tabeen school, the UN claims has killed dozens of Palestinians, many of whom are women and children. Israel was criticised even by its allies such as the UK for the strike, and its ongoing efforts in the Palestinian territory. The British representative, ambassador James Kariuki, noted there were 17 attacks on schools turned shelters in July, and that “Palestinians have nowhere safe to turn”. He added that 86% of Gaza is now under evacuation orders, with families being forced to move back and forth with no “safety or security they so desperately need”. While calling for Hamas to release its remaining Israeli hostages and to stop endangering civilians, Kariuki said it is “horrified by reports of sexual violence and abuse faced by hostages in Gaza and Palestinian prisons.” He said that Israeli ministers have been engaged in “unacceptable rhetoric”, and warned the state to follow international law. Erdan announced he was stepping back in May after four years in the post and declined an offer to stay in the US as Washington ambassador, citing family considerations. He will be replaced by Danny Danon, who claimed he will tackle the “resurgence of diplomatic terrorism”.

Top Hamas official says group is losing faith in US as mediator in Gaza cease-fire talks
Abby Sewell/DOHA, Qatar (AP)/August 14, 2024
A top Hamas official said the Palestinian militant group is losing faith in the United States’ ability to mediate a cease-fire in Gaza ahead of a new round of talks scheduled for this week amid mounting pressure to bring an end to the 10-month-old war with Israel. Osama Hamdan told The Associated Press in an interview Tuesday that Hamas will only participate if the talks focus on implementing a proposal detailed by U.S. President Joe Biden in May and endorsed internationally. The U.S. referred to it as an Israeli proposal and Hamas agreed to it in principle, but Israel said that Biden’s speech was not entirely consistent with the proposal itself. Both sides later proposed changes, leading each to accuse the other of obstructing a deal. Hamas is especially resistant to Israel’s demand that it maintain a lasting military presence in two strategic areas of Gaza after any cease-fire, conditions that were only made public in recent weeks. “We have informed the mediators that … any meeting should be based on talking about implementation mechanisms and setting deadlines rather than negotiating something new,” said Hamdan, who is a member of Hamas' Political Bureau, which includes the group's top political leaders and sets its policies. “Otherwise, Hamas finds no reason to participate.”It was not clear late Wednesday if Hamas would attend the talks beginning Thursday. Hamdan spoke amid a new push for an end to the war, sparked by the Oct. 7 attack on Israel in which Hamas-led militants killed 1,200 people and dragged about 250 hostages into Gaza. Israel responded with a devastating bombardment and ground invasion that has killed nearly 40,000 Palestinians and decimated wide swaths of the territory.There are now fears that the conflict could ignite a wider conflagration.
In an hourlong interview, Hamdan accused Israel of not engaging in good faith and said the group does not believe the U.S. can or will apply pressure on Israel to seal a deal. Hamdan claimed Israel has “either sent a non-voting delegation (to the negotiations) or changed delegations from one round to another, so we would start again, or it has imposed new conditions.”Israeli officials had no immediate comment on the claim, but Israel has denied sabotaging talks and accuses Hamas of doing so. During the interview, Hamdan provided copies of several iterations of the cease-fire proposal and the group’s written responses. A regional official familiar with the talks verified the documents were genuine. The official offered the assessment on condition of anonymity in order to share information not made public.
The documents show that at several points Hamas attempted to add additional guarantors —including Russia, Turkey and the United Nations — but Israel’s responses always included only the existing mediators, the U.S., Egypt and Qatar. In a statement Tuesday, the Israeli prime minister’s office said some changes it has asked for were merely “clarifications” that added details, such as to clauses that dealt with how Palestinians will return to northern Gaza, how many hostages will be released during specific phases and whether Israel can veto which Palestinian prisoners will be released in exchange for Israeli hostages. It accused Hamas of asking for 29 changes to the proposal. “The fact is that it is Hamas which is preventing the release of our hostages, and which continues to oppose the outline,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said earlier this month. Hamdan, however, claimed that more than once Hamas accepted in whole or in large part a proposal put to them by the mediators only to have Israel reject it out of hand, ignore it, or launch major new military operations in the days that followed. On one occasion, one day after Hamas accepted a cease-fire proposal, Israel launched a new operation in Rafah in southern Gaza. Israel said the proposal remained far from its demands. Hamdan said that CIA director William Burns told Hamas via mediators at the time that Israel would agree to the deal. But, he said, “the Americans were unable to convince the Israelis. I think they did not pressure the Israelis.” U.S. State Department spokesperson Vedant Patel told reporters Tuesday that Washington is making great efforts to prevent an escalation of violence and end suffering in the region. “We are working around the clock every day,” he said. “Everyone in the region should understand that further attacks only perpetuate conflict and instability and insecurity for everyone.”Negotiations have taken on new urgency as the war has threatened to ignite a regional conflict. Iran and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah are mulling retaliatory strikes against Israel after the killings of Hamas' political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran and of top Hezbollah commander Fouad Shukur in Beirut. Israel claimed the latter strike, but has neither confirmed nor denied its role in the blast that killed Haniyeh. After a brief truce in November that saw the release of more than 100 Israeli hostages, multiple rounds of cease-fire talks have fallen apart. Around 110 people taken captive remain in Gaza, about a third of them believed to be dead. Hamdan accused Israel of stepping up its attacks on Hamas leaders after the group agreed in principle to the latest proposal put forward by mediators.Israel said that a July 13 operation in Gaza killed Mohammed Deif, the shadowy leader of Hamas’ military wing. More than 90 other people also died, according to local health officials.
Hamdan insisted Deif is alive.
Two weeks later, Haniyeh was killed, with Hamas and Iran blaming Israel. Hamas then named Yahya Sinwar, its Gaza chief seen as responsible for the Oct. 7 attack, to replace Haniyeh — who had been considered a more moderate figure. Hamdan acknowledged there are “some difficulties” and delays in communicating with Sinwar, who is believed to be hiding deep in the network of tunnels in the Gaza Strip. But Hamdan insisted that this does not pose a major barrier to the negotiations. The most intractable sticking point in the talks remains whether and how a temporary cease-fire would become permanent.
Israel has been wary of proposals that the initial truce would be extended as long as negotiations continue over a permanent deal. Israel seems concerned that Hamas would drag on endlessly with fruitless negotiations. Hamas has said it is concerned Israel will resume the war once its most vulnerable hostages are returned, a scenario reflected in some of Netanyahu’s recent comments. All versions of the cease-fire proposal shared by Hamdan stipulated that the Israeli forces will withdraw completely from Gaza in the deal's second phase. Recently, however, officials with knowledge of the negotiations told the AP that Israel had introduced new demands to maintain a presence in a strip of land on the Gaza-Egypt border known as the Philadelphi corridor, as well as along a highway running across the breadth of the strip, separating Gaza’s south and north. Hamas has insisted on a full withdrawal of Israeli forces. Hamdan said the group had not yet received in writing the new conditions. Hamdan acknowledged that Palestinians have suffered immensely in the war and are yearning for a cease-fire, but insisted that the group couldn't simply give up its demands. “A cease-fire is one thing," he said, "and surrender is something else.”

Israeli forces clash with Hamas in occupied West Bank
Reuters/August 14, 2024
Israel said its forces had hit Palestinian militants in Tamoun in the occupied West Bank on Wednesday while Hamas said its fighters were engaged in fierce clashes with Israeli forces in nearby Tubas city after one was killed in an Israeli raid. Violence in the West Bank has escalated since the war in Gaza between Israel and Hamas broke out last October, with more Israeli raids, Jewish settler violence and Palestinian street attacks. Hamas has claimed more attacks there in recent days. The official Palestinian news agency WAFA reported that one man was killed in the Israeli raid in Tubas, while four others were killed in an Israeli drone strike in Tamoun, a few kilometres further south. It did not give their identities, but the Al-Qassam Brigades - the armed wing of the militant Palestinian group Hamas - later said one of its fighters, Fayyaz Fawaz Daraghmeh, was killed in the Tubas raid. "Our fighters have been engaged for hours in fierce clashes with the invading occupation forces in Tubas," it said. The Israeli military said: "As part of counterterrorism activity ... an aircraft struck a number of armed terrorists in Tamoun." It did not give a casualty figure. The Palestinian Education Ministry named one of those killed in Tamoun as 17-year-old Mohammad Bani Odeh. Reuters journalists at the scene of the Tubas raid saw a badly damaged house, with shattered glass and blood stains on the ground. A boy said his family were sleeping in their home when Israeli special forces burst in and called out for his father. "My father woke us up and he carried his weapon and there was an exchange of gunfire," he said. "Then they asked him to surrender but my father said he will not surrender and he would rather be a martyr or run away. My mother and we (children) began to ask him to surrender but he refused." Israeli forces have killed at least 620 Palestinians in the West Bank and East Jerusalem - areas the Palestinians envisage as part of their own eventual state - since the start of the Gaza war, according to Palestinian Health Ministry figures. Some have been armed fighters but others have been stone-throwing youths or uninvolved civilians. At least 30 Israelis - civilians and soldiers - have been killed by Palestinians in Jerusalem and the West Bank in the same period. WAFA also reported that President Mahmoud Abbas, whose Palestinian Authority has limited autonomy in the West Bank, will address the Turkish parliament in Ankara on Thursday. The war in Gaza threatens to spill into a full-out regional conflict involving Iran and its proxies in the region, including Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen. A new round of internationally mediated talks on a ceasefire and the release of Israeli hostages is still slated to go ahead on Thursday, though Hamas, which ran Gaza before the war, said it will not attend.

Israel publishes plan for new West Bank settlement as regional tensions simmer

Steven Scheer and Ali Sawafta/JERUSALEM/RAMALLAH (Reuters)/August 14, 2024
Israel has published plans for one of its proposed new settlements in the occupied West Bank, finance minister Bezalel Smotrich said on Wednesday, upping the ante a day before planned new Gaza peace talks seen as vital to preventing a regional war. The far-right minister said the move was a response to actions by the Palestinian West Bank leadership and countries which have recognised a Palestinian state. "No anti-Israel or anti-Zionist decision will stop the development of the settlement. We will continue to fight against the dangerous idea of a Palestinian state. This is the mission of my life," said Smotrich.
Most United Nations member states consider settlements built in the West Bank and other territory Israel captured in the 1967 Middle East war to be illegal under international law. Israel disputes this, citing the Jewish people's historical and biblical ties to the land. Israel announced in June it was going to legalise five outposts in the West Bank, establish three new settlements, and seize huge swathes of land where Palestinians seek to create an independent state, further inflaming Palestinian anger. The Palestinian Authority, which exercises limited authority over the West Bank under Israeli military occupation, reiterated that settlement construction and the demolition of Palestinian homes constituted ethnic cleansing, an allegation Israel has denied. In May, Spain, Ireland and Norway joined the majority of U.N. states that have recognised a Palestinian state, viewing the establishment of such a state alongside Israel as the only way to secure lasting peace between Israel and the Palestinians. Israel criticised their move as bolstering Hamas, the militant group that controls Gaza, and has condemned the Palestinian Authority for backing an international case accusing it of genocide, a charge which Israel firmly denies. A new round of internationally mediated talks to try and end the 10-month-old war between Israel and Hamas and secure the release of Israeli hostages held in Gaza is due to take place in Qatar on Thursday, although Hamas has said it will not attend. The new 60 hectare settlement called Nachal Heletz will form part of the Gush Etzion settlement cluster and connect the region with nearby Jerusalem, said Smotrich, who heads a pro-settler party and who himself is a settler. Peace Now, an Israeli NGO, said: "Smotrich continues to promote de facto annexation, disregarding the UNESCO Convention that Israel is a signatory to, and we will all pay the price."The Gaza war threatens to spill into a regional conflict involving Iran and its proxies, including Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israel is braced for significant Iranian and Hezbollah attacks following the killing of a senior Hezbollah commander in Beirut and the political leader of Hamas in Tehran. Little progress has been made on achieving Palestinian statehood since the signing of the Oslo Accords in the early 1990s.

Turkey will continue to increase pressure on Israel, Erdogan tells Palestinian leader Abbas
Reuters/ August 14, 2024
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan told visiting Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas on Wednesday that Turkey will continue to support the Palestinian cause and push the international community to increase pressure on Israel, his office said. The two leaders discussed recent developments and the steps to be taken for a lasting ceasefire and peace in Gaza, Erdogan's office said in a post on X. Erdogan condemned Israel's war in Gaza, the statement said, accusing some Western countries of remaining silent and continuing to support Israel. Erdogan also told Abbas that all countries, especially in the Muslim world, should step up efforts to ensure an immediate ceasefire in Gaza and the uninterrupted delivery of humanitarian aid to Palestinians. Abbas is set to address an extraordinary session of Turkey's parliament on Thursday.Israel's assault on Gaza started after the Palestinian Islamist militant group Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7. Turkey has denounced the war and has halted all trade with Israel. It submitted a request to join South Africa's case at the International Court of Justice accusing Israel of genocide . Turkey's invitation to Abbas came after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed the U.S. Congress on July 25, which Ankara has condemned. "We will show that Mr. Abbas has the right to speak in our parliament just as Netanyahu has the right to speak in the U.S. Congress," Erdogan told members of his ruling AK Party on Wednesday before meeting Abbas.
Erdogan, who has been a staunch supporter of Hamas, said Turkey had also planned to invite the political leader of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, who was assassinated in Tehran.

Major cyber attack strikes banks in Iran
Ynetnews/August 14/2025
London-based Iran International news channel, which is affiliated with regime opponents, reported on a cyber attack against the Central Bank of Iran and other banks that caused widespread disruptions.
The London-based Iran International news channel reported Wednesday afternoon on a major cyber attack against the Central Bank of Iran and several other banks. According to the channel, the attack caused widespread disruptions in the country's banking system. The channel, which is affiliated with opponents of the regime in Iran, reported that this may be one of the largest cyber attacks ever against the institutions of the Islamic Republic. In January 2023, Iran claimed that it had succeeded in foiling a cyber attack against the country's central bank. The report on the current attack and the disruptions in the Iranian banks comes at a time when senior officials in the country continue to threaten a harsh response against Israel, as revenge for the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran about two weeks ago. Iran has suffered from a series of cyber attacks in recent years. In December, Iran reported that a cyber attack disrupted the operations of approximately 70% of the gas stations in the country, and pointed an accusing finger at Israel and the U.S. Later, an Israeli hacker group took responsibility for the attack.The pro-Israel hacker group Predatory Sparrow wrote in a statement at the time claiming responsibility: "Today we shut down most of the gas stations in Iran in response to Iranian aggression in the region. Khamenei, know that playing with fire has a price. A month ago we warned you that we would make you pay for your provocations. This is just a taste of what that we are able to carry out. As in our previous operations, this attack was carried out in a controlled manner that limits the damage to the emergency services. Before the attack, we sent a warning to the emergency services in Iran and made sure not to damage some of the gas stations in the country, even though we had the ability to disable them completely." In the same attack, the Israeli hackers published screenshots with internal information from the Iranian gas companies and wrote: "Here is a small taste of what can be found on their network: information about gas stations, details about the payment system and access to the management system of the gas stations."
This was not the first time that the Predatory Sparrow group claimed responsibility for a cyber attack in Iran. Almost two years ago, a large steel plant in the country stopped its operations due to a cyber attack. The group of hackers then published documentation of the damage caused to the plant.
In 2021, Iran reported a cyber attack that caused widespread malfunctions and disruptions at gas stations throughout the country. The number of stations that were shut down at that time was 4,300 stations, about 80% of all stations. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's cyber advisor estimated at the time that the attack was carried out by a "foreign country."

Turkey, Iraq to hold new round of security talks in Ankara, source says

Reuters/August 14, 2024
Senior Turkish and Iraqi officials will hold high-level talks in Ankara on Thursday to develop cooperation on security issues, a Turkish diplomatic source said on Wednesday. The neighbours have in recent years been at loggerheads over Ankara's cross-border military operations against the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) militants based in northern Iraq's mountainous region. Iraq has said the operations are a violation of its sovereignty, but Ankara says they are needed to protect itself. Ties have improved since last year, when the two sides agreed to hold high-level talks on security matters, and after a visit in April by Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan to Baghdad, where he said relations had entered a new phase. Ankara and Baghdad have so far held three rounds of meetings as part of the dialogue mechanism, with Iraq deciding to label the PKK a "banned organisation in Iraq" during the latest talks held in March -- a move welcomed by Turkey. The Turkish source said Thursday's encounter would mark the first meeting of a "Joint Planning Group", which was decided during Erdogan's trip and is headed by the respective foreign ministers. Talks would also take place to put their cooperation within an institutional and sustainable framework, the source added, saying the delegations would discuss the implementation of 27 agreements signed during Erdogan's visit, and evaluate further joint initiatives. On Monday, Turkish Defence Minister Yasar Guler told Reuters that the recent steps taken by Turkey and Iraq in terms of counter-terrorism marked a "turning point", adding the technical work on establishing a joint operations centre for the region was ongoing. Guler also said Turkey's cross-border operations in northern Iraq would continue until "the name of terror is wiped out from this region", adding that Ankara expected Baghdad to label the PKK a terrorist organisation as soon as possible. The PKK, which has been waging an insurgency against the Turkish state since 1984, is designated a terrorist organisation by Turkey, the United States and the European Union. More than 40,000 people have been killed in the conflict.

Ukraine said it shot down a $36 million Su-34 bomber jet inside Russia
Mikhaila Friel/Business Insider/August 14, 2024
Ukraine downed a Russian Su-34 fighter jet over Kursk amid an ongoing territorial push. The Su-34, worth around $36 million, is Russia's most efficient fighter bomber with advanced tech. Ukraine has previously held long kill streaks with Russian Su-34s. Ukraine said its military downed one of Russia's most expensive fighter jets over Kursk more than a week after a surprise attack on the region. "Defense forces of Ukraine destroyed the enemy Su-34. The sky over Kurshchyna became clearer," Ukraine's General Staff wrote in a Telegram post on Wednesday. Video footage of what appears to be fire and debris from the downed jet is circulating on social media and was cited in a Newsweek story. Business Insider could not independently verify the video.The Su-34, also known as the Fullback, is worth around $36 million, The Kyiv Post reported. It is considered Russia's most efficient fighter bomber. It has sensors, avionics, and smart weaponry that enable it to identify targets quickly, Forbes previously reported. Ukraine has previously held long kill streaks with Russian Su-34s. In February, the Ukrainian military said it shot down four Su-34s in one week and a total of 10 Russian fighter jets in 10 days. It comes as Ukraine's push into Russian territory continues. As of Wednesday, 74 settlements are under Ukraine's control, according to the military's commander in chief Oleksandr Syrskyi. The invasion began on August 6, prompting a state of emergency in the region. The mission was kept secret — even from members of the Ukrainian military. The New York Times reported that a research institute affiliated with the military had analyzed the most successful operations in modern history and found those with the best outcomes were kept private. Speaking to The Times, an unnamed Ukrainian deputy brigade said most senior officers were only given three days' notice before the invasion took place, while soldiers in non-leadership roles were only given one day's notice. Representatives for Ukraine's Armed Forces and Russia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Russia Slapped Down At UN Meeting As Ukrainian Allies Remind Moscow It Is Not A 'Victim'

Kate Nicholson/HuffPost UK/August 14, 2024
Russia did not get the sympathy it was hoping for at an informal UN Security Council meeting on Tuesday. Ukraine has managed to humiliate Moscow over the last nine days by breaching Russia’s southern borders, reaching into the Kursk region and taking 100 Russian troops as prisoners of war. Kyiv says it is already occupying 1,000 sq km (386 sq miles) – that’s the same amount of Ukrainian land Russia has seized so far this year. Despite often boasting of its military prowess and Vladimir Putin’s promise to “kick the enemy out”, Moscow is struggling to remove the Ukrainian forces. And it’s certainly not getting any help from the West judging from what happened at the informal the UN Security Council. Ukraine’s allies, the US, France and the UK, did not waver in their support for Kyiv during the mini stand-off, and instead chose not mention the Kursk attack at all. Russia’s deputy UN ambassador Dmitry Polyanskiy said: “We haven’t heard a word of condemnation of these actions from the Western sponsors of the Kyiv regime who continue to cover up the abhorrent crimes of their puppet.”He claimed Ukrainians have been killing Russian civilians and questioned what Kyiv wants with the attack, adding: “I would be grateful for the explanation how intentionally targeting civilians serves the goal of disrupting attacks on Ukrainian territory, given the fact that there were no military objects or infrastructure in the area.”Several members instead accused Russia of hypocrisy, double standards and wasting the council’s time, listing all the ways Moscow has been accused of breaking humanitarian law in Ukraine. According to Reuters news agency, senior Slovenian diplomat Klemen Ponikvar said: “We will not recognise the aggressor as the victim.”UK diplomat Kate Jones said: “We will never falter in our support for Ukraine for as long as it takes to secure just and sustainable peace based on the principles of the UN Charter and international law.”And US diplomat Caleb Pine joined in, saying: “There is no question as to which country has committed numerous well-documented atrocities, including war crimes and crimes against humanity, on Ukraine’s sovereign territory. That country is Russia.”The amount of land Kyiv is occupying is nothing compared to the 18% (100,000 sq km or 453 sq miles) of its Ukrainian territory Russia is currently claiming as its own, more than two years after its invasion of its European neighbour.
However, diplomats from Syria, Belarus and North Korea spoke out for Russia at the meeting. Moscow has called Ukraine’s surprising offensive a “major provocation” and claims the country is just trying to strengthen its hand in any upcoming peace negotiations. The whole operation has been shrouded in secrecy. Kyiv has not revealed the exact purpose of this offensive, although it has said it has no plans to annex the Russian land, like Moscow has done with Ukrainian land. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy remained elusive on Monday, just saying: “Russia must be forced into peace if Putin wants to continue waging war so badly.”Ukraine’s allies have repeatedly claimed they had no prior warning of the offensive – the West is also eager to avoid the Ukraine-Russia war pulling NATO into direct conflict. Kyiv only confirmed that it had indeed breached Russia’s borders on Saturday, days after it first broke through. And, according to Reuters, both Ukraine and Russia have barred journalists from the battlefield, meaning any claims made by either side cannot be independently verified.

Earthquake aftershocks hit Hama in western Syria
Arab News/August 14, 2024
JEDDAH: Aftershocks struck the city of Hama in western Syria on Tuesday as the clean-up began after a 4.8 magnitude earthquake the night before. About 65 people were injured as they fled in panic after the quake, nearly 70 received hospital treatment for shock, and the tremors were felt across Jordan and Lebanon. “My son was sleeping, I don’t know how I grabbed him and got out of the house,” said Nasser Duyub, a state employee in Salamiya, 30 km east of Hama city. Jordan reported a 3.9 magnitude aftershock less than an hour after the initial quake, and Syria’s National Earthquake Center said monitoring stations recorded 13 tremors east of Hama city until Tuesday morning. Many people in Syria and Lebanon thought the initial quake was an Israeli airstrike. In Syria, others had flashbacks to February 2023, when a 7.8 magnitude earthquake killed more than 50,000 people — mostly in Turkiye, but thousands also died in northern Syria. That earthquake caused widespread destruction in both countries. “It was the same sound, as if it was coming out of the earth,” said Umm Hamzah, who lives in Damascus. “I got dizzy just like last time, but the scare was worse because I knew what happened in the previous quake.”

The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources on August 14-15/2024
China Is Now Goading Iran into Attacking Israel
Gordon G. Chang/Gatestone Institute/August 14, 2024
As countries around the world pressure Iran not to strike Israel — Tehran blames the Jewish state for the bomb that killed Haniyeh on July 31 — China was, in effect, publicly goading Iran to act.
Hamas is a proxy of Iran. Iran's regime believes that it is no one's proxy, but the Chinese seem to think that Iran is indeed theirs.
First, there is Beijing's direct economic lifeline to the ailing Iranian economy.
Beijing also provided diplomatic cover for the assault on Israel. Propaganda support may have been even more important: Some 96.5% of the videos on Hamas carried on the Chinese-owned social media platform TikTok support the terrorist group. China's Communist Party uses that platform to amplify favored narratives.
[T]he [Gulf] region is now especially concerned about the flood of Chinese weapons into the hands of Iran and its terrorist proxies. Regional leaders should be: All three of Iran's main proxy groups—Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis — fight with Chinese arms.
China's President Xi Jinping, apparently adopting the views of Mao Zedong, has been promoting "chaos" to pave the way for worldwide Chinese rule. Wang Yi in his call on the 11th to Tehran made a bold chaos move.
China, from all indications, wants more war in the world's most war-torn region.
As countries around the world pressure Iran not to strike Israel — Tehran blames the Jewish state for the bomb that killed Haniyeh on July 31 — China was, in effect, publicly goading Iran to act. (Image source: iStock/Getty Images)
China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi on August 11 told Iran's acting foreign minister that Beijing supports the Islamic Republic defending its "sovereignty, security, and national dignity." Wang said that killing Hamas's Ismail Haniyeh, the terrorist group's political leader, in Tehran violated Iran's sovereignty and threatened regional stability.
As countries around the world pressure Iran not to strike Israel — Tehran blames the Jewish state for the bomb that killed Haniyeh on July 31 — China was, in effect, publicly goading Iran to act.
Why would the Chinese foreign minister do that? Perhaps because Beijing believes that its proxy, Iran, is losing a war and has to act fast.
Hamas is a proxy of Iran. Iran's regime believes that it is no one's proxy, but the Chinese seem to think that Iran is indeed theirs.
Whether Iran is China's claw or not, Tehran could not have launched the October 7 war without the direct and indirect support of the Chinese state.
First, there is Beijing's direct economic lifeline to the ailing Iranian economy. Last year, when Iran's crude oil exports reached a five-year high, China took about 90% of the volume, according to Kpler, a European research firm. It appears that strong Chinese demand was the reason for the increase in Iranian production. Beijing also provided diplomatic cover for the assault on Israel. Propaganda support may have been even more important: Some 96.5% of the videos on Hamas carried on the Chinese-owned social media platform TikTok support the terrorist group. China's Communist Party uses that platform to amplify favored narratives.There is another telltale sign. "The proof of Iran's status as a Beijing proxy is the continual flow of both Chinese weapons to Iran and Chinese components for Iran's own arms," Jonathan Bass of InfraGlobal Partners told me this month. "Everybody in the region knows this."
Bass, who since October 7 has spoken to senior leaders of Arab League states and four of the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council, said the region is now especially concerned about the flood of Chinese weapons into the hands of Iran and its terrorist proxies. Regional leaders should be: All three of Iran's main proxy groups—Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis — fight with Chinese arms.
Why is China now promoting war in the Middle East? Beijing's approach to the region has fast evolved in the past half decade. Not long ago, Chinese policymakers had traditionally tried to maintain a balancing act by developing relationships with all sides and steering clear of the region's multiple conflicts.
Beijing, as a result, gained influence but was little more than a bystander as the United States dealt with the tough issues. Chinese diplomats, therefore, were on the sidelines as the Trump administration reshaped the region with the four Abraham Accords, pacts with two Gulf states, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates, and two in nearby North Africa, Sudan and Morocco. The result, peace with Israel, was historic.
China countered with two landmark deals of its own, one in March of last year between Saudi Arabia and Iran and the other on July 23, when Beijing got 14 Palestinian factions, including arch rivals Hamas and Fatah, to sign the Beijing Declaration, a unity pact, in the Chinese capital.
China, until the killing of Haniyeh, seemingly was driving events in the Middle East, but it now looks as if Beijing's green light for an Iranian attack on Israel is an attempt to stop an unfavorable trend.
Clearly, the Chinese need to do something. Hamas, which had won favor in Beijing, is in disarray. The group was able to appoint a successor to Haniyeh faster than many suspected, but it is losing control of Gaza, as Amir Bohbot of the Jerusalem Post reported on August 11. Israel's military successes, among other factors, have considerably weakened the organization.
Moreover, the U.S. is rushing military assets to bolster its already considerable forces in the region. On the August 11, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin ordered Carrier Strike Group 3 to expedite its transit to the Middle East. He also dispatched the USS Georgia, an Ohio-class guided-missile submarine, to make its way there. China cannot match American firepower in the region, and neither can its friend, Russia.
Ultimately, it is still the United States that wields power in the Middle East. Yes, at one point, it looked as if America was withdrawing. After all, the U.S., as it became the new Saudi Arabia, needed the region less. America has now pumped more crude oil than any other nation in history, for six years in a row. The U.S. produces more natural gas than any other nation. China tried to fill what it perceived to be a vacuum.
Yet just because America doesn't need the region does not make China powerful there. China's successes, its two big pacts, have proved to be somewhat imaginary. There has been, for example, little follow-up on the Saudi-Iranian agreement, one reason the Biden administration may be making progress on its own deal with Riyadh. Furthermore, the Beijing Declaration has already cratered in record time due in large part to the stunning killing of Haniyeh.
China apparently thought it was being clever in disrupting the Middle East with proxy war. When proxies falter, however, so do their masters. China is now faltering.
So China is now gambling. At the moment, China's newest gamble is emboldening Tehran: Iran's foreign ministry repeated Wang Yi's words on August 13 when the regime rejected calls from Britain, France, Germany and Italy not to hit Israel.
China's President Xi Jinping, apparently adopting the views of Mao Zedong, has been promoting "chaos" to pave the way for worldwide Chinese rule. Wang Yi in his call on the 11th to Tehran made a bold chaos move.
China, from all indications, wants more war in the world's most war-torn region.
**Gordon G. Chang is the author of The Coming Collapse of China and China Is Going to War, a Gatestone Institute distinguished senior fellow, and a member of its Advisory Board.
© 2024 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Iran’s apocalyptic Shi’ite dream
Lawrence Frankline/Jewish News Syndicate/August 14/2024
Hence, now or later, the Islamic Republic must be destroyed, whether they develop nuclear weapons or not.
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2024/08/133253/

To crush Sunni Islam, Iran must “persuade” the U.S. to jettison its view that Middle East stability is a vital American national interest.
It might be news to the United States and Israel that despite the Satanic appellations assigned to them by Iran’s regime—“Big and Little Satan” respectively—neither figure in the Islamic Republic’s final objective, which defines Shi’ite Islam. Iran’s theocratic worldview is shaped by the Shi’ite belief that Muhammad’s will was betrayed by the Sunni Caliphs who immediately succeeded the prophet. The true believers in the Shi’ite hierarchy assert that the Sunni hijacking of Islam will end with the return of the Imam Zaman (the Twelfth Imam), ushering in the end times.
For certain, the Islamic Republic employs the “Zionist Entity” as a foil to obscure its apostate image among Sunnis. Iran’s militancy also diminishes Saudi Arabia’s traditional primacy as guardian of Sunni Islam’s global interests. Iranian efforts to recruit both Shi’ite and Sunni Muslims to join the anti-Zionist “resistance” have succeeded in capturing the passion of even some Sunni extremist groups, like Hamas.
Although Iran’s revolution is a modern occurrence (1979), the essence of its theological ideology is rooted in the first decades of Islamic history. The Sunni-Shi’ite divide is traceable to the refusal by Damascus-based Umayyad dynastic Islamic notables to recognize the claim of Ali, the son-in-law and nephew of Muhammad, as the prophet’s legitimate successor as leader of Islam. Though Ali ultimately was named the Fourth Caliph, Sunni leaders disinherited his sons, killing his youngest, Hussain, and many of his followers at the Battle of Karbala, Iraq in 680 CE.
Following the defeat of their Shi’ite rivals, Sunni Muslims dominated the “Islamic world” in both power and population for centuries, except for a few periods of regional Shi’ite ascendancies. All that changed with the U.S.-led destruction of the Sunni dictatorship of Saddam Hussein. The demise of Saddam liberated Iraq’s Shi’ite majority, many of whom felt an affinity for Shi’ite Iran across the border. It is these Shi’ites who make up the several terrorist gangs in Iraq who do the bidding of Iran’s extremist regime.
Iran’s theocratic ideologues also share old-school ties with Iraq’s leading clerics, many of whom were trained in the same Shi’ite seminaries in Najaf (Iraq) and Qom (Iran). The overriding goal of Iran’s Shi’ite clerics is finally to replace Sunni dominance; first in the Middle East and eventually throughout the Islamic world. Iranian muscle in the Persian Gulf has now outclassed the Arabian Peninsula’s monarchial Sunni states in raw power. While these peninsular kingdoms remain wealthy, their thrones rest on sand. For the foreseeable future, they will all require protective guarantees from the calvaries of heathen states like America, Israel or China. Iran has appealed to Shi’ite minorities around the world, including in South Asia, West Africa and Mainland as well as Archipelago Southeast Asia. Iran has embraced Syria’s Alawite rulers as legitimate fellow Shi’ites. It has recruited Shi’ite soldiers from Afghanistan and Pakistan to join the ranks of the Lebanese Shi’ite terror group Hezbollah and Yemen’s ethnic Houthi Shi’ites who serve in the pro-Iranian international brigades fighting Tehran’s wars in the Mideast.
To deal the killing blow to Sunni political and religious Islam in the Gulf, Iran must “persuade” the U.S. to jettison its view that Middle East stability is a vital American national interest. Such a calculation by U.S. national security experts would, by definition, force Washington to reevaluate America’s longstanding commitment to Israel’s defense.
Iran’s efforts to create anti-Israel sentiment among segments of the U.S. population are precisely orchestrated to attrit traditional popular support for Israel among American citizens. The mobilization of Muslim-American sentiment for the “Palestinian cause,” together with idealistic and naïve support among some college students, has already influenced the 2024 U.S. presidential election to a greater degree than ever envisioned by Russia or China. Vice President Kamala Harris’s decision not to select the popular Jewish-American Democratic Governor of Pennsylvania Josh Shapiro as her running mate buttresses the accusation that she has bowed to the anti-Israel faction of her party, which includes open antisemites in its ranks.
Iran’s future strategy to undermine the American presence in the Middle East may include several confrontational tactics: Tehran could seek to enflame the Shi’ite-majority population of Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province. This region is the site of much of the kingdom’s oil wealth and has traditionally been a center of deep opposition to the ruling al-Saud dynasty, the global standard bearer of Sunni Islam.
Another disruptive option is already in play: Iran’s propagandists are presently stoking existing anti-Israeli animosities among Palestinian Arabs living in Judea and Samaria. Iran hopes these Palestinians will violently resist Israel’s administrative control to create another front on Israel’s borders.
Tehran’s radicalization of this population may also be used to attempt to topple the already teetering Hashemite dynasty in Jordan. Indeed, King Abdullah II might be the last King of Jordan, as his country’s Palestinian Arab population continues to grow. The overthrow of the Hashemites would remove a pro-Western ally that Iran could use as another tentacle in its anti-Israel strategy.
Furthermore, Iran has a subterranean network of cooperative elements in the Kingdom of Bahrain. This Sunni-ruled island state hosts the headquarters of the U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet and is a pro-Western ally in the Mideast. The dissolution of al-Khalifa dynastic rule in Bahrain would probably lead to the ouster of the Fifth Fleet, complicating the West’s ability to police Iranian aggression in the Persian Gulf.
Bahrain is vulnerable to the Islamic Republic’s malevolent designs because its Sunni dynasty rules over a restive, much larger Shi’ite population. The al-Khalifa Dynasty is unpopular but maintains control through a predominantly South Asian thuggish paramilitary of mercenaries. As an emergency security backup, a 15-mile bridge and causeway complex, built, in part, for a quick suppressive response, connects Bahrain to Saudi Arabia.
The U.S. and Israel must never underestimate Iran’s willingness to act on its ideologically inspired, apocalyptic dream that the Shi’ite narrative will be the universally accepted true legacy of Islam. The diminution of democratic power in the region will only lead to bolder moves by Iran’s clerics and their military class of zealots in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Hence, now or later, the Islamic Republic must be destroyed, whether they develop nuclear weapons or not.
https://www.jns.org/irans-apocalyptic-shiite-dream/
***Lawrence Franklin
Col. Lawrence Franklin was the USAF Reserve Military Attaché to the U.S. Embassy in Israel and the U.S. Defense Secretary's Farsi-Speaking Iran Officer and Islamic Terrorism specialist. He holds a PhD is in Asian Studies.

How much power do Arab and Muslim voters have in the next US elections?
RAY HANANIA/Arab News/August 14, 2024
CHICAGO: Veteran pollster John Zogby, president and founder of the polling company John Zogby Strategies, has said Arab and Muslim voters have more influence today than they have ever had since first settling in this country, and that the issue driving their vote is Gaza. Zogby noted that the public needs to look at polls not in terms of who is “winning” or leading the race, but rather in which way the voter popularity of a candidate is trending. Recent polls show that the majority of Arab and Muslim American voters favor third Party candidate Dr. Jill Stein of the Green Party, but that significant support is also shown for Vice President Kamala Harris who is expected to be named as the Democratic Party candidate for president at the Chicago Convention next week.
“I think the sun, moon and stars are aligned. The issues are there. There is broad support on that issue (Gaza), not only in our community but among young people and progressives. And I can’t believe all the calls I am getting about where Arab Americans stand,” Zogby said, noting the community is more together today than in past elections. Zogby noted that his brother Jim Zogby, the president and founder of the Arab American Institute, was instrumental in strengthening the voice of Arab and Muslim voters in the 1984 and 1988 presidential elections by defining issues on the Democratic Convention platform in alliance with the Rev. Jesse L. Jackson, who ran for president. That was the first time that the convention included a platform that called for support for the Palestinians and the two-state solution. Conventions since have excluded issues advocated by Arab and Muslim Americans.
“This time around is different; we hold some cards,” John Zogby said, noting that the voices will be heard more at the ballot box on Nov. 5, 2024.
Speaking during the taping of “The Ray Hanania Radio Show,” sponsored by Arab News on the US Radio Network and to be broadcast on Thursday at 5 p.m. EST, Zogby said that Arab and Muslim voters have come together more than they ever have in the past in this election, due to the conflict in Gaza and the need for candidates to address concerns more openly and without fear of pro-Israeli rebukes.
“Even among those fifth-generation kids who are named Scotty and Heather (and) who still have an eighth Arab American in them, the Palestinian issue is in the bloodstream,” Zogby said. “It is a fundamental injustice; it is a fundamental example of colonialism. I love it when I hear the kids on campuses saying this is colonialism, this is genocide. This is what it is and this is how we see it," he added, noting there are many variables at play. Despite many domestic issues driving the election, for Arab and Muslim voters “There are still some core issues and Gaza is in fact one of those issues.” Zogby said polling he did in April, just before President Joe Biden withdrew from the election, showed that the Biden administration’s failure to stop the carnage in Gaza had a tremendous impact on weakening support for Democrats among the Arab and Muslim community. Zogby pointed out that April saw “almost a destruction of the Democratic brand among Arab Americans and Muslim Americans because of Gaza.”
Arabs and Muslims should recognize that American political candidates will say one thing during an election but will tone it down or change it after being elected, the pollster said, adding that that polling changes frequently as it is driven by issues, and many trends. “I think what we need to strip away from our minds is that ‘the poll says someone is going to win.’ All a poll does is say that somebody is ahead. Somebody is behind. They are tied. That is a snapshot at the moment,” Zogby said.
Polling puts a spotlight on issues, and may show the impact third party candidates such as Stein and independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy might have on the major candidates.
“Yes, they (Kennedy and Stein) can have an impact. Right now, Kennedy is having more of an impact on Trump than he is on Harris. Jill Stein is having a slight impact, as she was on Biden. “I don’t have any real new numbers that tell the story but she is locked in at about 1 percent and Kennedy is about 8 to 10 percent.“However, for those who might be inclined to go with Bobby Kennedy and make a statement, his position on Israel and Gaza is as bad — frankly, if not worse — than both Biden and Trump. If that is the dominant issue, he was doing fairly well among younger voters, but this (Gaza) is a wall for me.”
Polling shows Stein is attracting the majority of votes from Arab and Muslim Americans, with Harris trailing behind and with Trump and Kennedy receiving insignificant community voter numbers.
Zogby noted Harris is currently leading the upward trendline (5), mainly because she is new entering the Democratic Convention and is enjoying a short honeymoon driven by her newness as a candidate. However, this popularity can change, he said.
Listen to the entire interview on Thursday at 5 p.m. EST on WNZK AM 690 radio, or online at https://Facebook.com/ArabNews, or on the Arab News podcast site at www.arabnews.com/rayradioshow.

Invading Russia is a gamble that may pay off for Zelensky
Mohamed Chebaro/Arab News/August 14, 2024
What, exactly, Ukraine’s endgame is with the Kursk operation remains an open question. The incursion might be President Volodymyr Zelensky’s boldest and riskiest gamble, a masterful strike that could bring about change within Russia and its leadership. If we are to believe Ukrainian claims that the operation is aimed solely at forcing Russia to redeploy fighting forces away from the northern front lines near Kharkiv, the chances are the move could backfire if Russia mounts a counterpunch, with reprisals that many fear will be bloody.
No doubt, Ukraine has been on the back foot since its long-awaited, but unsuccessful, offensive last summer, and Zelensky is desperate to change the narrative that it is losing the war despite its successes against Russian forces in the Black Sea, as well as in Crimea. Regardless of its aims, the incursion so far has lasted more than a week and claimed 1,000 sq. km of Russian territory, according to Ukraine’s generals — the first time a foreign force has set foot on Russian soil since 1941. And although Russian President Vladimir Putin has accused the West of being behind the operation — a claim the US and other allies reject — his regime finds itself in a tight corner.
The images from Kursk will shock the Russian public. In his assessment to his military leadership, Putin said that the operation is aimed at sowing discord among the local population and trying to improve Kiev’s position in any future negotiations — claims that might not be totally wrong.
Experts have praised the complex preparations for the incursion, with Ukraine relying on total secrecy and the use of electronic warfare techniques to blind Russians border defense units and blunt aerial surveillance.
Military strategists are trying to establish the reasoning behind the Ukrainian step — and in history, only the 1950 Inchon landings during the Korean War offer a counterpunch strategy that was as risky. But that operation was aimed at turning a whole offensive around, while the objectives of the Kursk incursion will be much more limited. Though the speed and suddenness of the Ukrainian operation appears to have caught Russian forces and the leadership by surprise, it is most likely a desperate act to try to disrupt Russian supply lines to troops near Kharkiv. However, the strike demonstrates that Ukraine is still capable of mounting cross-border raids, sending a message to Russians that they cannot sit easily at home while invading a neighboring country. Since February 2022, Kyiv has struggled to defend itself, while occasionally carrying out attacks targeting Russian territory aimed at tarnishing the invader’s image of invincibility. Stunts such as flying drones over Moscow and almost hitting the Kremlin were part of this strategy.
It is impossible not to praise Ukraine’s audacity
There was also success with the sinking of key Russian navy ships, and the limiting of Russian naval activities in the Black and Azof seas. Attacks on the Kerch bridge linking mainland Russia and Crimea were also effective in exposing Russian vulnerabilities and weaknesses, while other operations revealed Ukraine’s ability to engage in covert operations targeting military units, and the arms and oil industries using sabotage, drones strikes, and long-range missiles.
Other attacks have taken place inside Russia, mainly in border regions, such as Kursk, Belgorod and Bryansk Oblast. But these were undertaken by anti-war, anti-Putin Russian forces supported by Ukraine, with raids on lightly defended border settlements and towns before withdrawing back into Ukraine-held areas. The next phase of the Kursk incursion depends on what reserves each side has available and how it deploys them, in a race against time for both sides. The longer the operation lasts and Ukrainian forces increase their gains, the more Putin is likely to feel pressured to respond with any means at his disposal. He has described the attack as a terrorist act, which in the Russian leader’s lexicon means that anything will be permitted.
The other problem for Kyiv is that the initial incursion seems to have been more successful than expected, requiring the deployment of additional manpower and military resources desperately needed elsewhere. Although the Ukrainian forces are likely to dig in and fight, their efforts are unlikely to change the fundamentals present on the front line in the east of Ukraine, where Russian troops are advancing slowly against outgunned and outnumbered Ukrainian forces.
It is impossible not to praise Ukraine’s audacity and its leadership’s bravery in deciding to stand up and fight the forces of an invading superpower. If doubt begins to seep into the upper echelons of the Kremlin, with the suggestion that Russia is risking its peace and stability after losing face against a far weaker enemy, then the sacrifices of the Kursk operation will have been worthwhile.
The longer the Ukraine incursion survives, the more unpredictable Moscow will become — and that is likely to determine whether the gamble was worthwhile or a blatant miscalculation.
*Mohamed Chebaro is a British Lebanese journalist with more than 25 years of experience covering war, terrorism, defense, current affairs and diplomacy. He is also a media consultant and trainer.

The 'quiet world war' behind the struggles in the Middle East: This is the global map of interests in the Middle East
Tzipi Shmilovich, Yair Navot/Ynetnews/August 14/2025
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2024/08/133266/
Israel's war is a part of a broader global confrontation involving major powers whose involvement in the region is increasing; On one side is the United States, aiming to strengthen alliances with moderate Arab states, and on the other side is Russia, tightening its ties with Iran and, along with China and North Korea, seeking to weaken its Western rival.
Henry Kissinger famously remarked that "Israel has no foreign policy, only domestic policy," but right now, that statement seems to apply equally to the United States. For the Biden administration, U.S. foreign policy in the less than 100 days left before the election boils down to one goal: preventing a full-scale war in the Middle East, especially one that might involve American troops and exacerbate the sense of chaos that benefits Donald Trump and could lead to his reelection.
Beyond the immediate political calculations, preventing a regional war has been a primary focus for the Biden administration since October 7. The administration has largely given Israel free rein in Gaza while clearly concentrating on the broader threats posed by Iran and its proxies.
The U.S. has targeted proxy groups and issued particularly strong warnings to hostile actors in the region, from Hezbollah to the Houthis. Their highly publicized military movements in recent weeks are designed to keep the situation from spiraling out of control – a task that has become much more difficult even in the last two weeks.
In the longer term, the U.S. is working to strengthen its alliances in the Arab world, particularly with Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Qatar. While the Biden administration’s commitment to Israel’s defense remains unwavering, the president and his team have clearly lost patience with the Netanyahu government. They are deeply frustrated that a deal on the table – which could return hostages, lower tensions, and significantly strengthen U.S. and Israeli ties with Saudi Arabia – is repeatedly blocked for the same reasons that led Kissinger to make his famous statement. As the election approaches, the tension in the U.S., already at unhealthy levels, will only increase. The last thing the Democrats need is for the Middle East to dominate the headlines again. Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, made it clear at a campaign rally two days ago that she does not intend to let Gaza become a burden, as it was for Biden.
When pro-Palestinian protesters interrupted her speech at a massive rally in Detroit, she let them shout for a moment before saying, "If you want Trump to win, keep going. If not, I'm speaking now." While this may cause her some trouble with the left, the applause from the crowd suggested that most Democrats really do not want to hear more about the Middle East, and the Biden administration will do everything possible to ensure they don’t have to – at least until November 5.
Russia, in its own view, is a global power equal to the U.S. Its foreign policy is driven by this assumption and aims to diminish America’s influence, power and status worldwide, including in the Middle East.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 created unprecedented tension with Washington and many Western democracies, while also tightening Russia’s ties with China, Iran, and North Korea
– emphasizing security cooperation among these nations. This Russia-China-Iran-North Korea axis is united by the heavy sanctions imposed on each of them by the U.S. They all aim to reduce American dominance and shift the global order from a U.S.-led unipolar world to a multipolar one.
Russia’s policy toward Israel – against the backdrop of last week’s dramatic escalation and the risk of a full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah, possibly involving direct Iranian participation – is closely tied to its broader interests in the region, but also to the war in Ukraine.
In recent weeks, Russia has increased its involvement in the developments surrounding Israel. It has deepened security cooperation with Tehran and, according to Western sources, has even supplied Iran with advanced electronic warfare systems and air defense systems, and may soon provide them with advanced Su-35 fighter jets. Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas was in Moscow this week to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin – another sign of Russia’s attempt to assert its influence in the region.
Iran has been a significant ally for Russia in the Ukraine war, supplying thousands of drones, equipment and technological expertise. At the height of the tension between Israel, Iran and Hezbollah last week, Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu, the former defense minister, visited Tehran. He met with his Iranian counterpart, Ali Akbar Ahmadian, as well as the new Iranian president, Masoud Pezeshkian, and the Iranian military chief, before departing after just a few hours.
According to Reuters, citing two Iranian sources, during the visit, Shoigu delivered a message from Putin to Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, urging him to "respond with restraint against Israel" and advising him not to target Israeli civilians in the expected Iranian retaliation for the killing of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. The ongoing war in Gaza and the north over the past ten months serves Russian interests. It has diverted U.S. and Western military attention and resources away from Ukraine and has exacerbated internal political divisions in Europe and the U.S. And Russia has even directly accused Washington of being responsible for the war, arguing that its failure to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian dispute has significantly contributed to the descent into war – a stance that resonates in the Arab and Muslim worlds.
Weakening U.S. power and influence, including in the Middle East, is a top priority for Moscow, and almost any means to achieve this goal is considered acceptable. Continued tension, and possibly an escalation to a full-scale war, could greatly serve Russia’s interests, strengthening its regional standing just as U.S. influence in the Middle East is steadily declining.

Today in History: Muslims Behead 800 Christians for Refusing to Renounce Christ
Raymond Ibrahim/The Stream/August 14/2025
“The Turks have sworn the extinction of Christianity. A truce to sophistries! It is the moment not to talk, but to act and fight!” — Pope Sixtus IV
A little-remembered event that occurred 538 years ago today — the ritual decapitation of 800 Christians who refused Islam — sheds much light on contemporary questions concerning the ongoing conflict between Islam and the West.
Background: When he sacked Constantinople in 1453, Ottoman Sultan Muhammad II was only 21 years old — meaning he still had many good decades of jihading before him. He continued expanding into the Balkans, and, in his bid to feed his horses on the altar of Saint Peter’s basilica (Muslim prophecies held that “we will conquer Constantinople before we conquer Rome”) he invaded Italy and captured Otranto in 1480. More than half of its 22,000 inhabitants were massacred, 5,000 hauled off in chains.
To demonstrate his “magnanimity,” Sultan Muhammad offered freedom to 800 chained Christian captives, on condition that they all embrace Islam. Instead, they unanimously chose to act on the words of one of their numbers: “My brothers, we have fought to save our city; now it is time to battle for our souls!”
Outraged that his invitation was spurned, on August 14, Muhammad ordered the ritual decapitation of these 800 unfortunates on a lonely hilltop (subsequently named “Martyr’s Hill”). Their archbishop was slowly sawn in half to jeers and triumphant cries of “Allahu Akbar!” (The skeletal remains of some of these defiant Christians were preserved and can still be seen in the Cathedral of Otranto.)
Don’t Believe Your Lying Eyes
Now consider how this event relates to current realities:
First are the demonstrable but mainstream lies we are expected to accept in lieu of our lying eyes: Whenever Islamic individuals or organizations engage in violence against non-Muslims and cite Islam as their motivation, we are instantly told the exact opposite, that they are mere criminals and psychopaths, and that their actions have “nothing to do with the reality of Islam.”
Yet it was not just run-of-the-mill “Muslims” who committed atrocities atop Martyr’s Hill, but the virtual leader of Sunni Islam, the sultan himself, who always kept a pack of Muslim ulema — clerics, scholars, and muftis — to guide and confirm his decisions vis-à-vis infidels (including massacring those who reject Islam).
Incidentally, Muhammad II is a hero for Turkey and its president, Erdoğan, who transformed the Hagia Sophia into a mosque, partly to honor the murderous sultan.
Nor was Otranto an aberration. As copiously documented in two books, over the course of nearly 14 centuries, Islam’s official leaders and spokesmen — from sultans and caliphs to ulema and sheikhs — always spoke and acted just like the Islamic State (or rather vice-versa).
Also interesting to reflect on is how even more than half a millennium ago, Western nations preferred to engage in denial and wishful thinking than come to grips with reality or aid their beleaguered coreligionists. Soon after the Otranto massacre, Pope Sixtus IV chided an indifferent West accordingly:
Let them not think that they are protected against invasion, those who are at a distance from the theatre of war! They, too, will bow the neck beneath the yoke, and be mowed down by the sword, unless they come forward to meet the invader. The Turks have sworn the extinction of Christianity. A truce to sophistries! It is the moment not to talk, but to act and fight!
A Sleeping Christendom
Such laments were not uncommon; nor were they new. In 1433, Cardinal Julian had chastised the rest of Christendom’s factious nature and indifference to the jihad being waged against their Eastern coreligionists:
Look all around you, and see how the people of Christ are trodden upon and devoured by Turks, Saracens and Tartars [Muslims all]. Why do you not commiserate with the many thousands of your brothers, who year after year are reduced to the harsh servitude of the infidel?… But what is more pitiful, is that many of those who are led into captivity, and who are not able to bear such a hard servitude, deny the Catholic faith, and are led to the abhorrent sect of Mohammed. How many kingdoms, provinces, cities, towns are daily seized and depopulated? They have now cornered you in a small area in the west… Discord among Christians is the cause of all these calamities. If they would only grow wise and harbor love, this sort of persecution would soon end.
Nearly a century after Otranto, the West’s crusading zeal was still slumbering. In 1565, as a massive Islamic armament was sailing over to besiege the tiny island of Malta, Pope Pius IV, who was trying to raise an army, complained that the king of Spain “has withdrawn into the woods and France, England and Scotland are ruled by women and boys.”
Finally and not unlike today, whereas the mass of Western people were ignorant of Islam’s doings, a minority were always keenly aware, including from a historical perspective. Consider Sebastian Brant’s (b.1457) Ship of Fools, a satirical poem on the gradual nature of Islam’s advances vis-à-vis a “sleeping” Christendom:
Our faith was strong in the Orient/It ruled in all of Asia/In Moorish lands and Africa/But now [since the seventh century] for us these lands are gone …/We perish sleeping one and all/The wolf has come into the stall/And steals the Holy Church’s sheep/The while the shepherd lies asleep/Four sisters of our Church you find/They’re of the patriarchic kind/Constantinople, Alexandria, Jerusalem, Antioch/But they’ve been forfeited and sacked/And soon the head [Rome] will be attacked.
As the poem’s continuity suggests, learned Europeans saw the Ottoman scourge as the latest in a continuum of Islamic terror: for whereas the Arabs were “the first troops of locusts” that appeared “about the year 630,” to quote a contemporary English clergyman, “the Turks, a brood of vipers, are worse than their parent . . . the Saracens, their mother.”
Even in this little has changed: Today’s ever-morphing jihadist organizations — the Islamic State, al-Qaeda, Boko Harem, Hamas, Hezbollah, al-Shabaab et al — are the latest “brood of vipers” to be hatched by the perennial jihad.
*Raymond Ibrahim, author of Defenders of the West and Sword and Scimitar, is the Distinguished Senior Shillman Fellow at the Gatestone Institute and the Judith Rosen Friedman Fellow at the Middle East Forum.
https://stream.org/today-in-history-muslims-behead-800-christians-for-refusing-to-renounce-christ-and-embrace-muhammad/

Politico reporter speculates that MBS's life in danger over Israel-Saudi deal - report
Tovah Lazaroff/Jerusalem Post/August 14/2024
MBS referenced this threat to explain why the Israel-Saudi deal must include an immediate pathway to Palestinian statehood.
The US-based news website Politico raised speculation that the Saudi Arabian Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), was at risk of assassination over his push for normalization ties with Israel.
The column, written by Politico’s senior foreign affairs correspondent Nahal Toosi, relied on anonymous sources who told her about conversations that MBS had with members of the US Congress regarding the threats he faced.
MBS, she wrote, referenced this threat to explain why it was important that the deal also include an immediate pathway to Palestinian statehood.
Israel has been opposed to this component of the triad deal, even as it has embraced the idea of Saudi normalization.
“The Saudi royal has mentioned to members of Congress that he’s putting his life in danger by pursuing a grand bargain with the US and Israel that includes normalizing Saudi-Israeli ties,” she wrote.
Salman has “discussed the threats he faces in explaining why any such deal must include a true path to a Palestinian state, especially now that the war in Gaza has heightened Arab fury toward Israel,” she explained.
Is MBS trying to push US officials to raise pressure on Israel?
“I’ve come to view MBS’ framing of the situation as a clever diplomatic marketing strategy: He’s saying his life is in danger to push US officials to raise pressure on Israel to bend to a deal he likes,” Toosi wrote. “Arguing that you’re putting your neck on the line for a potentially epochal deal is certainly a compelling way to get your interlocutors’ attention,” she argued.
“In fairness,” Toosi stated, “It’s probably also true.”
The triad deal had been high on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s agenda prior to the Hamas-led October 7 attack, after which it was put on the back burner, and then resurrected. US President Joe Biden had hoped that a Gaza ceasefire deal would create a window by which to push the normalization agreement forward before the November 4 election for the White House.
It’s believed that the sitting Senate provides the best opportunity to pass such a deal, but Israel’s protracted war with the Iranian proxy groups Hamas and Hezbollah has made such a move impossible.
Netanyahu did not mention the Saudi deal during his joint address to the US Congress on July 24, but he did speak with Biden about it when the two met at the White House the next day.
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-814761

The Saudi Crown Prince is Talking About An Assassination. His Own.
Nahal Toosi/Politico/August 14/2024
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/08/14/saudi-prince-mbs-israel-deal-00173898
Many people want to kill the Saudi leader, but is he using such threats as a means to get the U.S. to pressure Israel on a future Palestinian state?
Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, knows a thing or two about assassinations. Lately, he’s been telling U.S. lawmakers he’s at risk of one.
The Saudi royal has mentioned to members of Congress that he’s putting his life in danger by pursuing a grand bargain with the U.S. and Israel that includes normalizing Saudi-Israeli ties. On at least one occasion, he has invoked Anwar Sadat, the Egyptian leader slain after striking a peace deal with Israel, asking what the U.S. did to protect Sadat. He also has discussed the threats he faces in explaining why any such deal must include a true path to a Palestinian state — especially now that the war in Gaza has heightened Arab fury toward Israel.
The talks were described to me by a former U.S. official briefed on the conversations and two other people with knowledge of them. All of the people, like others quoted in this column, were granted anonymity to describe a high-stakes, sensitive topic. The discussions have been weighty and serious, but one takeaway, the people said, is that the crown prince, often referred to as MBS, appears intent on striking the mega-deal with the U.S. and Israel despite the risks involved. He sees it as crucial to his country’s future.
The broad contours of the largely secret and still-developing pact have emerged in various reports, including my own. It includes multiple U.S. commitments to the Saudis, including security guarantees via a treaty, aid on a civilian nuclear program and economic investment in areas such as technology. According to some reports, in exchange Saudi Arabia would limit its dealings with China. It also would establish diplomatic and other ties with Israel — a huge boon for the Israelis given Saudi Arabia’s importance among Muslim nations.
To MBS’ chagrin, however, the Israeli government has been unwilling to include a credible path to a Palestinian state in the pact.
“The way he put it was, ‘Saudis care very deeply about this, and the street throughout the Middle East cares deeply about this, and my tenure as the keeper of the holy sites of Islam will not be secure if I don’t address what is the most pressing issue of justice in our region,’” said one of the people with knowledge of conversations MBS has had with regional and American leaders.
When I first heard about the Saudi royal’s conversations, I was intrigued and skeptical.
I thought, of course, of the late Jamal Khashoggi, the journalist MBS is accused of ordering killed. Now MBS is the one fearing for his life? Does this count as irony?
I also remembered the many past reports of how MBS didn’t care about the Palestinians, seeing their cause as slowing down Arab advancement and their leaders as inept. I wondered why the threat he faces now is more serious than the threats he’s long faced: He’s pushed through dramatic social changes in Saudi Arabia, sidelining many of his relatives and conservative Islamist clerics who no doubt seethe about it.
But the more I thought about it and talked to people smarter than me, the more I’ve come to view MBS’ framing of the situation as a clever diplomatic marketing strategy: He’s saying his life is in danger to push U.S. officials to raise pressure on Israel to bend to a deal he likes. Arguing that you’re putting your neck on the line for a potentially epochal deal is certainly a compelling way to get your interlocutors’ attention.
In fairness, it’s probably also true.
Peacemaking is a dangerous business. That’s especially true in the Middle East, where even before the Gaza war MBS was gambling by toying with the idea of establishing diplomatic ties with Israel.
“It’s another way of saying, ‘This is a momentous decision for me. That’s why I need something for it,’” said Dennis Ross, a veteran Middle East negotiator who’s worked for several American presidents.
Saudi representatives whom I reached out to were, unsurprisingly, hesitant to detail the crown prince’s conversations. The Saudi embassy in Washington declined comment.
One senior Saudi official told me, though, that MBS believes that without resolving the Palestinian issue, his country ultimately won’t benefit from the supposed economic, technological and military benefits of the overall deal. That’s because “we’re not going to have regional security and stability without addressing the Palestinian issue,” the official said.
His comments made sense in the context of how others described MBS to me — as a Saudi nationalist. Whether he personally cares about the Palestinian cause is irrelevant. He’ll support it if it benefits Saudi Arabia.
Like it or not, the mega-deal in the works could massively change the Middle East, not least by seeing Israel and Saudi Arabia act as a united front against Iran.
Given the electoral calendar, and the need for Senate ratification of any treaty involved, the bargain isn’t going to become a reality anytime soon. But I anticipate that no matter whether Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump wins the U.S. presidency in November, either one will still pursue some version of it. When the Palestinian militants of Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7, sparking the war that continues today, many observers feared the grand bargain was dead.
As the death toll in Gaza mounted — some 40,000 now, including civilians and militants — citizens of Arab countries have raged against what they see as Israeli atrocities. It was the latest wave of anger from people across the region who already despised Israel for its decades-long occupation of land claimed by Palestinians. Surprisingly, the top players involved did not abandon the bargain — viewing it as critical to the region’s long-term stability. Some of the offers on the table, however, have had to change.
Prior to Oct. 7, the negotiators had brought in Palestinian leaders to see what could be included for their people in the deal, something a senior Biden administration official pointed out to me when I sought comment from the White House for this column.
At that point, some small concessions — agreements for future talks or something — might have satisfied the Saudis. But now the demand is “a clear, irreversible path” to a Palestinian state.
MBS is an autocrat who has clamped down on political dissent, but he still cares about public opinion.
The Palestinian issue is sensitive in particular because it hurts him with younger Saudis who otherwise support his social reforms and provide a bulwark against religious hardliners and royals who oppose him.
“He has a very young population that has been in many ways energized, galvanized by the first major conflict between Israelis and Palestinians that many of them have seen in their lives. It doesn’t take being inside his head to understand that this would be weighing on him,” a second senior Biden administration official told me.
But Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed never to allow for the creation of a Palestinian state, as have far-right members of his governing coalition. Much of the Israeli public opposes the idea as well after Hamas slaughtered 1,200 people on their soil Oct. 7.
So far, there’s little evidence that outside pressure will change Netanyahu’s mind — not even demands from President Joe Biden have convinced Netanyahu to lay out a serious plan for how to deal with Gaza after the war, much less the Palestinians as whole.
I asked Israeli officials for comment, and the best one would offer was:
“Our understanding is that the governments of the U.S., Saudi Arabia and Israel are all interested in pursuing a deal that covers both U.S.-Saudi bilateral issues and Israel-Saudi normalization. However, it would require certain conditions for such a deal to materialize, not all of which are currently in place.”
It’s far from clear, then, if MBS’ strategy of emphasizing the risk he’s taking will convince Netanyahu that he, too, should take a risk.
And it would be a risk. Another Middle Eastern figure assassinated for pursuing peace was Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin.
Still, both MBS and the U.S. are likely hoping that Netanyahu will ask himself what’s best for his country in the long run, not just in the traumatic now.

Politico reporter speculates that MBS's life in danger over Israel-Saudi deal - report
Tovah Lazaroff/Jerusalem Post/August 14/2024
MBS referenced this threat to explain why the Israel-Saudi deal must include an immediate pathway to Palestinian statehood.
The US-based news website Politico raised speculation that the Saudi Arabian Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), was at risk of assassination over his push for normalization ties with Israel.
The column, written by Politico’s senior foreign affairs correspondent Nahal Toosi, relied on anonymous sources who told her about conversations that MBS had with members of the US Congress regarding the threats he faced.
MBS, she wrote, referenced this threat to explain why it was important that the deal also include an immediate pathway to Palestinian statehood.
Israel has been opposed to this component of the triad deal, even as it has embraced the idea of Saudi normalization.
“The Saudi royal has mentioned to members of Congress that he’s putting his life in danger by pursuing a grand bargain with the US and Israel that includes normalizing Saudi-Israeli ties,” she wrote.
Salman has “discussed the threats he faces in explaining why any such deal must include a true path to a Palestinian state, especially now that the war in Gaza has heightened Arab fury toward Israel,” she explained.
Is MBS trying to push US officials to raise pressure on Israel?
“I’ve come to view MBS’ framing of the situation as a clever diplomatic marketing strategy: He’s saying his life is in danger to push US officials to raise pressure on Israel to bend to a deal he likes,” Toosi wrote. “Arguing that you’re putting your neck on the line for a potentially epochal deal is certainly a compelling way to get your interlocutors’ attention,” she argued.
“In fairness,” Toosi stated, “It’s probably also true.”
The triad deal had been high on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s agenda prior to the Hamas-led October 7 attack, after which it was put on the back burner, and then resurrected. US President Joe Biden had hoped that a Gaza ceasefire deal would create a window by which to push the normalization agreement forward before the November 4 election for the White House.
It’s believed that the sitting Senate provides the best opportunity to pass such a deal, but Israel’s protracted war with the Iranian proxy groups Hamas and Hezbollah has made such a move impossible.
Netanyahu did not mention the Saudi deal during his joint address to the US Congress on July 24, but he did speak with Biden about it when the two met at the White House the next day.
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-814761