English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For August 11/2024
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

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Bible Quotations For today
The Parable of the Sower/But that on the good ground are they, which in an honest and good heart, having heard the word, keep it, and bring forth fruit with patience.
Luke08/04-15/And when much people were gathered together, and were come to him out of every city, he spake by a parable: A sower went out to sow his seed: and as he sowed, some fell by the way side; and it was trodden down, and the fowls of the air devoured it. And some fell upon a rock; and as soon as it was sprung up, it withered away, because it lacked moisture. And some fell among thorns; and the thorns sprang up with it, and choked it. And other fell on good ground, and sprang up, and bare fruit an hundredfold. And when he had said these things, he cried, He that hath ears to hear, let him hear. And his disciples asked him, saying, What might this parable be? And he said, Unto you it is given to know the mysteries of the kingdom of God: but to others in parables; that seeing they might not see, and hearing they might not understand. Now the parable is this: The seed is the word of God. Those by the way side are they that hear; then cometh the devil, and taketh away the word out of their hearts, lest they should believe and be saved. They on the rock are they, which, when they hear, receive the word with joy; and these have no root, which for a while believe, and in time of temptation fall away. And that which fell among thorns are they, which, when they have heard, go forth, and are choked with cares and riches and pleasures of this life, and bring no fruit to perfection. But that on the good ground are they, which in an honest and good heart, having heard the word, keep it, and bring forth fruit with patience.

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on August 10-11/2024
Lebanese government accuses Israel of intending to prolong war, expand its scope
Lebanese on edge amid fears of all-out Israel-Hezbollah war
Israel breaks sound barrier over many regions in Lebanon
Hezbollah: The enemy's actions demonstrate its commitment to a genocidal war
Israeli shelling with phosphorus on Kfarkela in South Lebanon causes severe injury: Health Ministry
Lebanese Foreign Ministry condemns targeting of Gaza school, urges unified international response
Conditional support: Lebanon seeks international assistance to reinforce military presence in south
From 2006 to 2024: A decade of preparation reveals evolving military capabilities of Hezbollah and Israel
South Lebanon: Four Injured in Majdal Selm, Including a Rescue Worker
Hezbollah vs Netanyahu: Washington Seeks to Avert Full-Blown War
The head of the National Liberal Party in a mass for the repose of the soul of President Chamoun in Deir al-Qamar: Money and weapons are for the destruction of Lebanon and we will bring a president who will raise heads
Audio/Zahle, Civil war, Committee of the Families of Kidnapped and Disappeared in Lebanon, Olive tree
The Role of Psychological Warfare on the Battlefield
The Shiite Duo and the Presidential Deadline Saga
René Mouawad Airport: A Strategic Advantage
The Role of Psychological Warfare on the Battlefield
Redefining Style: Hats in Summer Fashion

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on August 10-11/2024
IDF confirms 19 Hamas, Islamic Jihad operatives eliminated in controversial Gaza school strike
Extra-tense': Powder-keg Haifa port braces for possible bombardment
Israel's urban warfare tactics in Gaza offer lessons for NATO armies
Super Hornet fighter jets loaded with supersonic missiles spotted in Middle East ahead of potential Iranian attacks: report
Gaza civil defense says 93 dead in Israeli strike on school shelter
Cyprus: We Will Not Participate in Military Operations in the Middle East
Jordan’s foreign minister says we will not be a battlefield for any party
Israel lacks political will to end Gaza war: Egypt
US ship docks in Cyprus, could assist civilians if Mideast tensions flare
An Israeli airstrike on a Gaza school kills at least 80 people, Palestinian health officials say
Iran’s new president reappoints UN-sanctioned official as head of the country's nuclear agency
Ukraine is striking targets hundreds of miles inside Russia for 3 key reasons, say
Russia launches new operation to halt advancing Ukrainian troops
Iran to deliver hundreds of ballistic missiles to Russia soon, intel sources say
US troops attacked in Syria, no initial reports of injuries, official says

Titles For The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources on August 10-11/2024
Iran's Mullahs Iranian Mullahs Will Not Stop Unless They Are Stopped/Majid Rafizadeh/Gatestone Institute./August 10, 2024
Deepening US reliance stalls Israeli preemptive strikes; time for a strategic shift/Ron Ben-Yishai/Ynetnews/August 10/2024
Biden looks for legacy on foreign front/Andrew Hammond/Arab News/August 10, 2024
Sudan needs peace now/Hafed Al-Ghwell/Arab News/August 10, 2024
It is not too late to build a principled and powerful EU/Ana Palacio/Arab News/August 10, 2024
Only a Credible Offensive Threat Can Deter Iran from Climbing the Escalation Ladder/Farzin Nadimi/washington institute for near east policy/August 10/2024
Clashes in Northern Syria: The Triumph of Interests Over the Language of "Brotherhood"?/Salahuddin Hawa/washington institute for near east policy/August 10/2024

Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on August 10-11/2024
Lebanese government accuses Israel of intending to prolong war, expand its scope
NAJIA HOUSSARI/Arab News/August 10, 2024
BEIRUT: The Israeli army intensified its hostilities on Saturday against border villages in southern Lebanon, destroying and flattening several neighborhoods. The Lebanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs condemned Israel’s “disregard for international law and humanitarian standards” in a statement on Saturday.
It said that “the deliberate killing of large numbers of unarmed Palestinian civilians in the attack against the Al-Taba’een school in the Gaza Strip is clear evidence of Israel’s intention to prolong the war and expand its scope, especially as international mediators intensify efforts to reach a ceasefire.”
The ministry said that the Israeli “occupation army’s systematic and indiscriminate shelling, and the killing of children and civilians, clearly demonstrate the Israeli government’s disregard for international law and humanitarian standards.”It urged “the international community and relevant countries to take a unified, serious and effective stance to protect the Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip and put an end to this humanitarian catastrophe. “The first step to avoiding de-escalation and a wider conflict in the region is to halt the aggression on Gaza and adopt a peaceful diplomatic path by taking serious steps to obligate Israel to accept a two-state solution in line with relevant international resolutions,” the ministry added. It circulated a document from the Lebanese government to its diplomatic missions abroad, containing “the principles aimed at achieving long-term stability in southern Lebanon.”The ministry requested its missions to “conduct the necessary communications in their respective countries, both bilaterally and within the councils of Arab ambassadors, to present the Lebanese stance outlined in the document.”The document stated that “the Lebanese government believes that a full-scale war can still be avoided, and it is committed to protecting the safety and security of its citizens, retaining its right to self-defense under international law. “At the same time, the government believes that de-escalation is the most appropriate path to avoid a destructive cycle of violence, which would be more challenging to contain.”The document said that “the government cannot act alone. The international community must play a decisive and immediate role in calming tensions and curbing the ongoing Israeli aggression against Lebanon.”
The text added: “To achieve de-escalation, the Lebanese government proposes a systematic and organized approach that would provide an alternative to the current chaos. This approach would be purposeful, with the primary goal of restoring stability.”The government statement also demanded the “full and equitable implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701. There is a need for immediate de-escalation and cessation of provocative actions to reduce risks and protect civilians. “Any activity within this framework should not obstruct the full re-commitment to Resolution 1701 or increase the risk of a full-scale conflict,” it said. The document also said that “the Lebanese government believes that a ceasefire in Gaza would immediately calm tensions in southern Lebanon, paving the way for long-term sustainable stability. In this context, the Lebanese government supports President Biden’s agreement to ceasefire in Gaza and calls for its immediate implementation following Resolution 2735.”The Lebanese reaction came as a local TV team survived an Israeli raid on the Majdal Selm village this morning. Israeli artillery shelling targeted Houla, while Israeli warplanes raided several houses in Tayr Harfa, Tyre.
The Health Ministry emergency operations center said that “the Israeli artillery shelling with phosphorus shells on Kfarkila has resulted in a severe case of asphyxiation for one resident, who required hospitalization.”The destructive artillery shelling flattened several houses in Aitaroun, while Israeli warplanes hit Aita Al-Shaab. Hezbollah separately said in a statement that it destroyed “spy equipment in the Israeli military Ramia site with an attack drone.”Hezbollah released footage of its operation targeting “a newly established Israeli military position in Khirbet Manot.”It also announced targeting “a gathering of Israeli soldiers in Tel Sha’ar with rocket weapons.”Israeli warplanes continued to fly at medium altitude over southern villages, extending to Sidon and Beirut.

Lebanese on edge amid fears of all-out Israel-Hezbollah war
Agence France Presse/10 Aug 2024
Fears of a major escalation between Israel and Hezbollah have left many Lebanese on edge, exacerbating mental health problems and reviving traumas of past conflicts in the war-weary country. One 29-year-old woman, who lives near the southern city of Sidon, said she dreaded the thunderous, explosive boom of Israeli jets regularly breaking the sound barrier. "I feel the house will fall down on top of me... Sometimes I freeze... or start crying," said the woman, a contract worker for a non-governmental organization. She was 11 years old when Israel and Hezbollah went to war in the summer of 2006, and said bombs fell near her house. "Sometimes, unconsciously, you remember it," said the woman, requesting anonymity in a country where mental health issues are often stigmatized. "These sounds give you flashbacks -- sometimes you feel you're back at that time," she said. Since Hamas' October 7 attack on Israel sparked the Gaza war, Hezbollah has traded near daily cross-border fire with the Israeli army in support the Palestinian militant group, sending tensions soaring. Lebanon has been on a knife's edge since a strike on Beirut's southern suburbs last week killed Hezbollah's top military commander, just hours before the assassination, blamed on Israel, of Hamas' political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. Iran and Hezbollah have vowed revenge, amid fears that retaliatory attacks could spiral into all-out war, with airlines suspending flights to Lebanon and countries imploring foreign nationals to leave.
Panic attacks
"I already had been suffering from anxiety and depression... but my mental health has deteriorated" since October, said the woman, who can no longer afford therapy because her work has slowed due to the hostilities. "You feel afraid for the future," she said. Before the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war, Lebanon endured a grueling 1975-1990 civil conflict in which Israel invaded the south and in 1982 besieged Beirut. The current cross-border violence has killed more than 560 people in Lebanon, most of them fighters but also including at least 116 civilians, according to an AFP tally.
On the Israeli side, including in the annexed Golan Heights, 22 soldiers and 26 civilians have been killed, according to army figures. Laila Farhood, professor of psychiatry and mental health at the American University of Beirut, said "cumulative trauma" has left many Lebanese with stress, anxiety, depression and post-traumatic stress disorder. "Individuals transmit their anxieties to their children as cross-generational trauma," she told AFP. "What is happening now triggers previous traumas," causing some people to have panic attacks, said Farhood, who specializes in war trauma and its impact on Lebanese civilians. On Tuesday, Israeli jets broke the sound barrier over central Beirut, causing intense sonic booms that rattled windows and nerves, just two days after the anniversary of a catastrophic blast at Beirut's port in 2020. "I had my first panic attack," said Charbel Chaaya, 23, who studies law in France and is living with his family near Beirut. "I couldn't breathe, my legs felt numb... in that very first moment, you don't know what the sound is -- just like what happened on August 4," he said.
'Uncertainty'
Layal Hamze from Embrace, a non-profit organization that runs a mental health center and suicide prevention hotline, said people in Lebanon now are "more susceptible to any sound.""Baseline, the adrenaline is already high. It's a stressful situation," said Hamze, a clinical psychologist. "It's not only the Beirut blast," Hamze added. "The natural or automatic response" is to be frightened, she said, and while "maybe the older generation... are a bit more used to" such sounds, they could trigger "the collective trauma."Some on social media have urged people to stop letting off fireworks -- a ubiquitous practice for celebrations -- while humorous skits making light of difficulties like flight cancellations have also circulated. With coping mechanisms varying greatly, some people are "going partying", while others "are reaching out to the community more", which helps them feel they are not alone, Hamze said. Dancer Andrea Fahed, 28, whose flat was damaged in the port blast, said she panicked when she heard this week's sonic booms. She said she felt "lucky" to be a dancer, because with her community "we laugh together, we move together... you let go of a lot of things."But she said the "uncertainty" was a constant struggle, and now leaves her windows open, fearing another blast could shatter everything."Anything can happen," Fahed said.
"If it's happening with that intensity in Gaza, why wouldn't it come here?"

Israel breaks sound barrier over many regions in Lebanon
LBCI//10 Aug 2024
Israeli warplanes broke the sound barrier in two waves on Saturday over many regions in Lebanon, causing loud sonic booms.

Hezbollah: The enemy's actions demonstrate its commitment to a genocidal war
LBCI/10 Aug 2024
Hezbollah has condemned "the horrific massacre perpetrated by the Israeli occupation forces at Al-Taba'een school in Gaza, leading to over 100 martyrs and injuring dozens during dawn prayers." The party emphasized that the bloodshed occurred under the watch of an indifferent global community, which it holds morally and ethically accountable for "the atrocities committed by the Israeli enemy."In a statement, Hezbollah mentioned that "the actions of the enemy's government demonstrate its commitment to a genocidal war against the Palestinian people, with killing and massacres being its true agenda.""Talks of ceasefires and new negotiation dates as deceptive tactics that will not fool the Palestinian people, their resistance factions, or their supporters, who are increasingly determined to resist and halt the massacre to prevent the enemy from achieving its overt and covert goals," the statement added. Hezbollah strongly condemned the massacre, urging all free people worldwide to denounce it and intensify protests against the Israeli government. The party called for renewed solidarity campaigns with the children, women, and men of Palestine who have been enduring brutal massacres for over ten months.
Hezbollah expressed its deepest condolences to the steadfast, oppressed, and courageous Palestinian people, praying for mercy for the martyrs, swift recovery for the injured, and a quick end to their suffering with imminent victory.

Israeli shelling with phosphorus on Kfarkela in South Lebanon causes severe injury: Health Ministry
LBCI/10 Aug 2024
The Public Health Emergency Operations Center of the Public Health Ministry reported on Saturday that Israeli artillery shelling, using phosphorus shells, on the town of Kfarkela in South Lebanon has resulted in a severe case of asphyxiation for one resident. The individual was urgently admitted to Marjayoun Governmental Hospital for treatment.

Lebanese Foreign Ministry condemns targeting of Gaza school, urges unified international response
LBCI/10 Aug 2024
The Lebanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs condemned the Israeli occupation forces for targeting a school in eastern Gaza that was sheltering unarmed Palestinian refugees. The school, Al-Taba'een, was struck by three missiles that directly hit its prayer area, resulting in the deaths of more than 100 Palestinians and injuring dozens more.In a statement, the ministry described the attack as "systematic indiscriminate shelling" and said it demonstrated the Israeli government's disregard for international law and humanitarian standards. "The continued perpetration of crimes against Palestinians, especially the deliberate killing of large numbers of unarmed civilians, as international mediators intensify efforts to reach a ceasefire, is clear evidence of Israel's intention to prolong the war and expand its scope," the statement said. The ministry urged the international community to take a unified and effective stance. It called for immediate action to protect the Palestinian people in Gaza and to put an end to what it described as a "humanitarian catastrophe.""The first step toward de-escalation is halting the aggression on Gaza," the ministry said, adding that a broader conflict in the region could be prevented through diplomatic efforts. Furthermore, the ministry emphasized the need "for serious steps to obligate Israel to accept a two-state solution in line with relevant international resolutions."

Conditional support: Lebanon seeks international assistance to reinforce military presence in south
LBCI/10 Aug 2024
In light of escalating tensions in the south and the looming threat of a comprehensive war between Hezbollah and Israel, Lebanon is intensifying its diplomatic efforts to restore stability. The Lebanese government has communicated to diplomatic delegations in Lebanon the necessity of equitable implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701, emphasizing the pivotal role that the Lebanese Army and the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) will play. To this end, Lebanon has committed to bolstering its military presence along the southern border, announcing the recruitment of additional military personnel, and seeking international support for the Lebanese Army. Currently, the fifth and seventh brigades and the fifth intervention regiment, totaling about 4,000 soldiers, are stationed along the southern border. However, to reinforce this presence and ensure adequate security, the Lebanese Army must deploy an additional 6,000 troops, bringing the total to 10,000.Such an increase in human resources comes with significant logistical and financial challenges. The cost of recruiting and equipping each soldier ranges between $3,000 and $4,000, making the total estimated cost of this deployment plan around $1 billion—an amount that Lebanon cannot afford without external assistance. Lebanese Army Commander General Joseph Aoun has been advocating for this support in international meetings, including the army support conference in Rome last March and meetings in Paris with the French and Italian army commanders in April. Nonetheless, the understanding is that international support is contingent upon a ceasefire and a resolution on the southern front, which would create the conditions necessary for establishing new military posts. The United States continues to support the Lebanese Army, with reports indicating that during a meeting between General Aoun and US envoy Amos Hochstein, the latter promised to advocate for a US-hosted conference to support the Lebanese Army in implementing Resolution 1701 once the political scene is conducive. European contacts are ongoing to secure further support, along with the US, with potential involvement from another Western country. While the Lebanese Army awaits the fulfillment of these promises, sources indicate that the core of implementing Resolution 1701 lies in achieving a political solution and a comprehensive settlement, not just in increasing military presence.

From 2006 to 2024: A decade of preparation reveals evolving military capabilities of Hezbollah and Israel
LBCI/10 Aug 2024
Ten months have passed since a limited conflict between Hezbollah, one of the region's strongest non-state combat organizations, and the Israeli army, one of the Middle East's most well-equipped and armed military forces. What if this conflict escalates? What is Hezbollah's current military and operational status?
During the 33-day July 2006 War, Hezbollah showcased significant military surprises on the battlefield. One of the key elements was the "Kornet" anti-tank missile, which destroyed Israeli "Merkava" tanks in the Khiam plain and Wadi al-Hujeir, proving to be a decisive deterrent in the last two days of the war. Another notable weapon was the Iranian "Noor" or "C-802" anti-ship missile, which struck the Israeli warship "Saar 5" off the Lebanese coast. In 2006, Hezbollah's fighting force was estimated to be a few thousand fighters, and their preparation for the unexpected war was brief. At that time, Hezbollah possessed a limited number of Iranian and Russian missiles and unprotected rocket launchers, lacking drone capabilities. Conversely, the Israeli army held air superiority, immense destructive power, and technological dominance, especially since Hezbollah lacked air defense systems. Between 2006 and 2024, the landscape has changed. Hezbollah's combat-ready force has significantly increased, now comprising tens of thousands of well-trained and equipped fighters who have gained extensive battlefield experience in Syria against ISIS. Hezbollah now has eyes on the ground with various surveillance and attack drones that have proven effective in combat. Hezbollah's arsenal has also expanded, now including Russian and Iranian surface-to-surface missiles, fortified launch sites, and tunnels. Crucially, they possess precision-guided missiles capable of striking across Israel, such as the "Fateh-110" missile, though experts stress the need to test their effectiveness. In addition to precision missiles, Hezbollah has acquired more advanced anti-ship missiles to counter Israeli warships, boats, and submarines. The ten months of conflict have revealed that Hezbollah has ground-to-air missiles capable of downing Israeli drones, and it has fired rockets at fighter jets. Nevertheless, the specifics of their air defense systems, potentially including Russian, Chinese, and Iranian systems, remain unknown. Despite these advancements, Israel maintains air superiority, greater destructive capacity, and effective air defense systems like the Iron Dome, which can intercept many missiles. However, Israeli missiles often reach their targets unimpeded. This air dominance is complemented by Israel's significant technological edge and use of artificial intelligence, which, along with security breaches, has created an extensive database about Hezbollah field commanders and carried out precise assassinations. For 18 years, both Hezbollah and the Israeli military have been preparing for potential extensive warfare. Such a war would test the effectiveness, preparedness, and surprises each side has in store. One such surprise could be the possibility of part of the fighting extending into Israeli settlements.

South Lebanon: Four Injured in Majdal Selm, Including a Rescue Worker
This Is Beirut/10 Aug 2024
Clashes resumed on the southern front on Saturday, following a relatively calm morning. An Israeli raid targeted the village of Majdal Selm in the early afternoon, causing injuries to four people, including a rescue worker from the Islamic Mission. The wounded were taken to the government hospital in Tebnine. The NBN TV crew present at the scene narrowly escaped the strike. Phosphorus shells fired at Kfar Kila caused severe suffocation in a resident, who was transferred to the government hospital in Marjayoun. Israeli bombardments also targeted the villages of Hula, Markaba, Tayr Harfa, Aitaroun, and Aita al-Shaab. For its part, Hezbollah claimed responsibility for attacks on Israeli positions at Malkiya and Ramya, as well as a new position at Khirbet Manot and a deployment of soldiers at Tell Chaar. On the Israeli side, the media reported the sounding of alarm sirens in Malkiya, in Western Galilee.

Hezbollah vs Netanyahu: Washington Seeks to Avert Full-Blown War
Bassam Abou Zeid/This Is Beirut/10 Aug 2024
 Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati and Caretaker Foreign Affairs Minister Abdallah Bou Habib are trying to navigate a middle ground between Hezbollah and the international community. However, since October 8, they have found themselves in a difficult position. Hezbollah’s decisions are indeed driven not just by the Lebanese scene but also by broader factors, particularly Iran, which provides political, financial, and military support. Meanwhile, the international community is more than aware that the Lebanese government serves primarily as a mere mailbox for messages exchanged between Hezbollah and the international community. The main message conveyed to the international community is that Lebanon is willing to fully implement UN Resolution 1701, provided Israel does the same. According to Western diplomatic sources, this Lebanese commitment, now formalized in writing, is seen as a binding pledge, contingent upon an agreement to end Israeli violations — whether they are aerial, maritime, or terrestrial — and to resolve issues along the Blue Line. If such an agreement is reached, the Lebanese authorities would have no justification whatsoever for not ensuring that the area south of the Litani River is free of weapons and militants, placing it under the exclusive control of the Lebanese Army and UNIFIL. These sources also emphasize that the issues of the Shebaa Farms and the Kfar Shouba Hills should not be used as a pretext to obstruct the full implementation of Resolution 1701. Indeed, these areas are not covered by the resolution, and no formal border demarcation has occurred between Lebanon, Syria, and Israel. Furthermore, the fact that Lebanese citizens own land in these areas does not automatically place them under Lebanese sovereignty, just as Lebanese-owned properties in Syria are not under Lebanese control. Meanwhile, the international community — particularly the United States, France, Qatar, and Egypt — is striving to prevent an all-out war, with southern Lebanon currently being one of the main flashpoints. According to sources in Washington, the US administration is applying pressure on two key points:
– They are working to ensure that Iran’s response to the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh and Hezbollah’s retaliation for the killing of Fouad Shokr do not target Israeli civilians, as this would provide Benjamin Netanyahu with the justification he seeks to launch a broader offensive.
– They are trying to persuade the Israelis not to retaliate if the response is limited to military targets. However, the Americans have not yet secured any commitments from the Israeli Prime Minister on this front. Given the complexity of the situation, sources in Washington suggest that the Biden administration has decided to intensify its efforts to broker a prisoner exchange. They see it as the only viable option to prevent an escalation by Iran and Hezbollah and to secure a temporary truce that could pave the way for negotiations on a permanent ceasefire and a long-term political solution.
The key question remains: Will American efforts succeed in preventing the conflict from escalating further?

The head of the National Liberal Party in a mass for the repose of the soul of President Chamoun in Deir al-Qamar: Money and weapons are for the destruction of Lebanon and we will bring a president who will raise heads
NNA/August 10, 2024
The Attorney General, Bishop Maroun Kiwan, representing the Maronite Patriarch, Cardinal Bechara al-Rahi, headed a mass in the Church of Our Lady of the Hill in Deir al-Qamar, for the repose of the soul of President Camille Chamoun and his wife, Mrs. Zalfa, at the invitation of the National Liberal Party, with the participation of the Minister in the caretaker government, Hector Hajjar, representing the Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri and the Prime Minister Najib Mikati, MP Dr. Farid al-Bustani, former Minister Naji al-Bustani, and political, social, municipal and civil figures and figures, in addition to the head of the National Liberal Party, MP Camille Chamoun and family members. Monsignor Kiwan delivered a sermon in which he remembered the late President Chamoun, especially in the difficult circumstances that Lebanon is going through today, “as we long for the reassurance that the country enjoyed during your era, and the security and stability until the end of your era, and when your political opponents tried to remove you by force by igniting fire and sedition, but you held out until the last minute of your era, because you are a man of right and a fierce defender of right, dignity, justice and the homeland that you said was eternal, everlasting and everlasting.” He added: “We long for the prosperity and economic, urban, touristic and social stability that the Lebanese enjoyed during your era, because you were working for the benefit of Lebanon and the Lebanese and not for your personal interest as is the case these days. We long for the openness that you achieved with all Lebanese sects and groups throughout the country, as you succeeded in establishing a parliamentary bloc in all parts of the country, and it was the largest in the parliament at that time and diverse in sects. We long for a unified party that accommodates all free nationalists without being linked to anyone except the sovereign Lebanon.” Free and independent, as you used to say, Your Excellency, we long to unify ranks as you always sought in war and peace, where you would give up your right to spare blood and for the sake of Lebanon. You were a hero in peace and a hero in war defending Lebanon, and your directives to the defenders after the end of the war were to return to the intellectual and media struggle to preserve the homeland and the right of the Lebanese people to live in dignity. You fought with all the spirit of sacrifice and honor without hatred and malice because fighting was imposed on you and you are standing on the threshold of solutions that you will accept without weakening the Lebanese and their full dignity." He concluded: "We miss people like you in the presidency of the country and in the Council of Ministers and Representatives and representing the country abroad based on your faith in God and the Church."
Chamoun
After the divine sacrifice, speeches were delivered in the outer courtyard of the church by the Liberal Commissioner in Chouf, Fadi Maalouf, and the head of the party, MP Chamoun, who stressed the party's sovereign and independent role for the country, saying: "President Chamoun raised the status of his country to be a beacon in the Middle East and before the Lebanese communities abroad for those who immigrated in the past until today where immigration is very large and this is a very shameful matter, and this did not happen because people are not willing to travel as much as the country was exposed to it starting from the last century and until independence which has its heroes including President Chamoun which must be preserved and continues in the conviction of all believers in this country, so we are either independent or dwarves Mortgaged to the outside, no, we are not dwarves nor agents of the outside, but rather a source of pride for Lebanon and this idea must remain firmly rooted in the mind of every honest Lebanese citizen who is loyal to his country and whose only concern is Lebanon. He continued: "We cannot continue with imported ideas and those who are mortgaged to the outside and send money and weapons to Lebanon not to revive the country but to destroy it. Lebanon cannot defeat Israel except through its economy, the strength of its institutions and its men who built their country and will return to rebuild it because Lebanon does not die. We return to the importance of our unity, not only Christian but also national to achieve the dream of Lebanon that President Chamoun did, and with its basic components from hospitals to universities and those remain ammunition in the heart of each one of us." He concluded: "Despair is forbidden, and everything that is happening for that and so that they can reach their goals in the country and the president they want in exchange for, in their opinion, a piece of bread, in the face of this frustration, no, we will not accept the "crumbs" that they give us, but we have sacred rights. Our ambitions are greater than that and our heads will remain high and we will bring a president of the republic who will raise our heads and we deserve much more. We will put an end to the corruption that is eating away at the country and return the depositors' money, the savings of their lives." Our hand is extended to everyone who is good for his country so that we can continue forward.

Audio/Zahle, Civil war, Committee of the Families of Kidnapped and Disappeared in Lebanon, Olive tree
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UgOfVizR1jI&t=1s
Aubin Eymard/10 August 2024
Twenty members of the Committee of the Families of the Kidnapped and Disappeared in Lebanon planted the first of fifty olive trees to honor civil war victims, while demanding more state support.

The Role of Psychological Warfare on the Battlefield
Joanne Naoum/This Is Beirut/10 Aug 2024
In times of war, the language of power dominates, with the growl of artillery filling conflict zones, leaving behind devastation and fear. Alongside physical confrontations, a non-lethal battle unfolds through “psychological propaganda”. This psychological warfare wields an influence as powerful as the violence of war, impacting both military forces and civilian populations.
“A War Itself”
“Psychological warfare is not just a precursor to war; it accompanies and extends well into the post-war period,” said journalist and political analyst Ali Hamade. “In essence, it lays the groundwork by shaping the mindset of the population and public opinion, whether within the country or among the forces involved, as well as on the enemy’s side,” he explained during an interview with This is Beirut. Hamade highlighted that during active conflict, psychological warfare plays a crucial role in spreading disinformation and instilling fear. It intensifies the war effort by magnifying the successes of one’s own troops while dramatizing the losses and the deteriorating condition of the enemy forces. Moreover, he emphasized that psychological warfare continues after the physical battles have ended, targeting the morale of the adversary by underscoring their vulnerabilities and losses and influencing the interpretation of the post-war landscape. “Psychological warfare is not merely a component of war—it is a war in itself,” Hamade affirmed.
“Effects and Objectives”
Retired General Maroun Hitti highlighted the severe impact of psychological warfare, stressing that in today’s context, it must be integrated with strategic communication. “The effects of psychological warfare can be devastating, particularly when deception is involved. However, these effects are limited; once the source is exposed and its credibility is questioned, the impact diminishes. Meanwhile, the adversary gains valuable time, which is often a primary objective of such tactics,” Hitti explained in an interview with This is Beirut. He highlighted that one of the key aspects of psychological warfare is the delivery of a one-way message, often without an interlocutor, making the communication more powerful and difficult to counter. Hitti further noted that, given the conflicting objectives of the parties involved (Hezbollah and Israel in the case of the current prevailing situation), psychological warfare alone is unlikely to put an end to the conflict. “Currently, the objectives of Hezbollah and Israel are entirely incompatible. As a result, this psychological warfare, or the ‘psychological waiting game’ as Hezbollah’s Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah has called it, serves little purpose beyond rallying his own supporters, rather than affecting the Israelis,” General Hitti observed. He went on to discuss how Nasrallah’s so-called psychological warfare has been met with a “psychological one-upmanship” from the opposing side. Hitti explained, “When an adversary becomes aware that their opponent is conducting a psychological operation, the impact of that operation diminishes, and it ceases to function effectively. However, if, for example, at 6:38 in the morning, the Israeli air force were to create a ‘sonic boom’ over Dahieh at low altitude, the surprise effect of such an event would have an impact comparable to psychological warfare.”Hitti concluded by emphasizing the critical role that audio and visual elements play in modern warfare, much like in ancient times when warriors sought to inspire terror with fierce masks and synchronized chants. Psychological warfare instilled intense fear and panic among residents, especially children, across Lebanon. Sonic booms echoed through Beirut, Metn, and the South as the looming threat of retaliatory strikes from Iran, its proxies, and Israel turned the situation into a nightmare.

The Shiite Duo and the Presidential Deadline Saga
This Is Beirut/10 Aug 2024
According to Western diplomatic sources, the Shiite duo of Amal and Hezbollah will not break the deadlock on Lebanon’s presidential elections until an American-Iranian agreement has been reached. Indeed, the MPs of the Shiite duopoly have reportedly refused to meet with the opposition delegation to discuss the initiative they launched to facilitate the election of a new president. Opposition circles believe that this reluctance is clear evidence that the Shiite duo does not want to elect a president at the moment, preferring to keep the decision in the hands of Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri.
It would appear to the opposition that the Caretaker Prime Minister, Najib Mikati, consults Berri on every point, meaning that decisions would be taken in Ain el-Tineh and not in the Grand Serail. The Shiite duo is thus clinging to the presidential vacuum because it makes them the sole interlocutor-negotiator in the absence of other political forces, especially the Christian blocs and the Sunni leadership. Even the Socialist Party, led by the Joumblatts, has reportedly placed its decision-making in the hands of Berri for political and security considerations regarding stability in the Lebanese mountains, a Druze stronghold. It is worth recalling that the tandem has already obstructed several initiatives aimed at unblocking the presidential file, namely that of the Quintet (France, United States, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Qatar) and that of the National Moderation Bloc.

René Mouawad Airport: A Strategic Advantage
Liliane Mokbel/This Is Beirut/10 Aug 2024
The Qlayaat René Mouawad Airport is not intended to compete with Beirut Rafic Hariri International Airport. Its purpose is to address urgent needs in security, logistics, and economic development. The rehabilitation of Qlayaat René Mouawad Airport is contingent upon the approval of the Minister of Public Works and Transport, Ali Hamiyeh, who must sign off on the project currently awaiting his review. The project, estimated at approximately $45 million, is expected to be funded through a Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) model. Ever since President René Mouawad’s assassination in 1989, discussions about utilizing Qlayaat René Mouawad Airport in Akkar, Northern Lebanon, have continued. Officially known as “René Mouawad Air Base,” the airport is located 26 kilometers from Tripoli and seven kilometers from the Lebanese-Syrian borders. Although it was bombed by Israel in 2006 and subsequently rehabilitated, further work is needed to make it fully operational for civilian use. Beyond the political considerations of reclaiming a vital public asset from Hezbollah’s control, the use of Qlayaat René Mouawad Airport should not be viewed as a substitute for Beirut Rafic Hariri International Airport. It is not intended to compete with it. Even a small country like Lebanon can benefit strategically, economically, and logistically from having multiple airports. Cyprus, slightly smaller than Lebanon at about 9,251 square kilometers, has six airports, including two for civilian use in Larnaca and Paphos.
National Security
Given the current situation in Lebanon, it is essential to consider risk distribution and national security, including food security and petroleum products’ supply. In the event of attacks or natural disasters, decentralizing airports would ensure that if one facility is compromised, others can remain operational. In other words, this approach would significantly enhance national resilience.
Facilitating Trade
For economic viability, Qlayaat Airport should be integrated into a project to establish a duty-free trade zone, similar to Jebel Ali in Dubai, and connected to the port of Tripoli and the railway line to Turkey. Its role in facilitating pan-Arab trade is essential.
That being said, MP Sajih Attieh states that this airport, situated in a peripheral region, is expected to generate at least 5,000 jobs. He also highlights the advantages for residents of the Beqaa and Northern Lebanon, especially regarding transportation efficiency. For instance, while a resident of Hermel must travel 180 km to reach Beirut Rafic Hariri International Airport, Qlayaat Airport is only 20 Km away.
A Runway
Emphasizing the importance of operating Qlayaat René Mouawad Airport, the Akkar deputy points out the difficulties of adding a new runway at Beirut Rafic Hariri International Airport, based on various State-commissioned studies.

The Role of Psychological Warfare on the Battlefield
Joanne Naoum/This Is Beirut/10 Aug 2024
In times of war, the language of power dominates, with the growl of artillery filling conflict zones, leaving behind devastation and fear. Alongside physical confrontations, a non-lethal battle unfolds through “psychological propaganda”. This psychological warfare wields an influence as powerful as the violence of war, impacting both military forces and civilian populations.
“A War Itself”
“Psychological warfare is not just a precursor to war; it accompanies and extends well into the post-war period,” said journalist and political analyst Ali Hamade. “In essence, it lays the groundwork by shaping the mindset of the population and public opinion, whether within the country or among the forces involved, as well as on the enemy’s side,” he explained during an interview with This is Beirut. Hamade highlighted that during active conflict, psychological warfare plays a crucial role in spreading disinformation and instilling fear. It intensifies the war effort by magnifying the successes of one’s own troops while dramatizing the losses and the deteriorating condition of the enemy forces. Moreover, he emphasized that psychological warfare continues after the physical battles have ended, targeting the morale of the adversary by underscoring their vulnerabilities and losses and influencing the interpretation of the post-war landscape. “Psychological warfare is not merely a component of war—it is a war in itself,” Hamade affirmed.
“Effects and Objectives”
Retired General Maroun Hitti highlighted the severe impact of psychological warfare, stressing that in today’s context, it must be integrated with strategic communication. “The effects of psychological warfare can be devastating, particularly when deception is involved. However, these effects are limited; once the source is exposed and its credibility is questioned, the impact diminishes. Meanwhile, the adversary gains valuable time, which is often a primary objective of such tactics,” Hitti explained in an interview with This is Beirut. He highlighted that one of the key aspects of psychological warfare is the delivery of a one-way message, often without an interlocutor, making the communication more powerful and difficult to counter. Hitti further noted that, given the conflicting objectives of the parties involved (Hezbollah and Israel in the case of the current prevailing situation), psychological warfare alone is unlikely to put an end to the conflict. “Currently, the objectives of Hezbollah and Israel are entirely incompatible. As a result, this psychological warfare, or the ‘psychological waiting game’ as Hezbollah’s Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah has called it, serves little purpose beyond rallying his own supporters, rather than affecting the Israelis,” General Hitti observed.
He went on to discuss how Nasrallah’s so-called psychological warfare has been met with a “psychological one-upmanship” from the opposing side. Hitti explained, “When an adversary becomes aware that their opponent is conducting a psychological operation, the impact of that operation diminishes, and it ceases to function effectively. However, if, for example, at 6:38 in the morning, the Israeli air force were to create a ‘sonic boom’ over Dahieh at low altitude, the surprise effect of such an event would have an impact comparable to psychological warfare.”Hitti concluded by emphasizing the critical role that audio and visual elements play in modern warfare, much like in ancient times when warriors sought to inspire terror with fierce masks and synchronized chants. Psychological warfare instilled intense fear and panic among residents, especially children, across Lebanon. Sonic booms echoed through Beirut, Metn, and the South as the looming threat of retaliatory strikes from Iran, its proxies, and Israel turned the situation into a nightmare.

Redefining Style: Hats in Summer Fashion
Marie-Christine Tayah/This Is Beirut/10 Aug 2024 
This summer, hats are making a strong comeback. Whatever the occasion, they come in a variety of shapes and colors.
Hats are redefining style and silhouette this summer. Whether at the beach or in the mountains, they assert themselves, adding a personal and chic touch with a coquettish, even bold attitude. Whether made of straw, felt, as a sombrero, or in minimalist styles, hats transform summer outfits into creative and refined ensembles.
Whether it’s a touch of retro chic, a nod to fashion shows, a raw edge, or a delightful bohemian effect, hats are a must-have in summer wardrobes, breathing new life into seasonal outfits. Adopting a hat means embracing a trendy and timeless look, sure to turn heads this season. Additionally, this favorite accessory of those with a keen eye for fashion adds a remarkable artistic dimension. It protects the face and head from the sun, wind, mountain cold, or coastal heat. Constantly reinventing itself, it adapts to any happening.
With a Denim Outfit
Pairing a hat with jeans, whether it’s pants, shorts, a skirt, or a jacket, instantly changes the silhouette. This casual fabric takes on an air of mystery or nonchalance when paired with a hat. A straw or lightweight fabric fedora is the best choice for complementing a look with jean shorts, a simple white t-shirt, and espadrilles or white sneakers. You’ll achieve a polished yet relaxed look.
With Summer Dresses
A light dress in summer colors welcomes hats in various styles; depending on the dress, it can create a refined, retro, or casual look. The ultimate fashion tip? Pair a long dress with a wide-brimmed straw hat for a bohemian and elegant vibe. Sandals or espadrilles will complete the look you’ve dreamed of. For lightweight linen or cotton slip dresses, a sombrero or cloche hat is most suitable. With sandals on your feet and a martini in hand, you’ll be the right image of a sophisticated style.
With a Skirt
For a picnic or a day in the village, opt for a skirt paired with a light blouse. This outfit will give you an irresistible summer look, perfect for a laid-back day with a fresh twist.
With Pants
Casual yet chic, this style will give you an irresistible edge, completing your summer wardrobe. It’s the ideal accessory to perfectly match light clothing and refined accessories. You’ll exude grace and transform a simple outfit into a trendy, well-put-together look.
With a Swimsuit
In a world where fashion trends move at a dizzying pace, wearing a hat with a swimsuit, be it a one-piece or two-piece, expresses personality. Whether a large or small sombrero, adorned with accessories, drawings, or colors, a hat adds a distinguished and timeless look to the wearer.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on August 10-11/2024
IDF confirms 19 Hamas, Islamic Jihad operatives eliminated in controversial Gaza school strike
Yoav Zitun/Ynetnews/August 10/2024
Army casts doubt on Palestinian and Hamas claims of dozens of casualties, which sparked global condemnation, citing pre- and post-strike footage showing minimal damage to targeted site. The IDF and Shin Bet security agency confirmed Saturday evening that at least 19 Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad terrorists were killed in a strike on the Tabeen school complex in central Gaza City, which drew sharp international criticism over Palestinian reports of dozens of civilian casualties. The IDF casted doubt over Palestinian and Hamas claims of dozens of casualties. "The strike was carried out using three precise munitions, which, according to professional analysis, can not cause the amount of damage that is being reported by the Hamas-run Government Information Office in Gaza," according to a statement. "Furthermore, no severe damage was caused to the compound where the terrorists were situated." The army emphasized that precautions were taken to minimize civilian casualties, including using precision munitions with reduced warheads and gathering accurate intelligence. "The Hamas terrorist organization systematically violates international law and operates from within civilian infrastructure and shelters, brutally exploiting the civilian population and institutions as human shields for their terror activities," the statement added. Meanwhile, the White House expressed concern over reports of dozens of casualties, with Palestinians claiming nearly 100 people were killed, though the IDF disputes these figures. "We are in contact with our Israeli counterparts, who say they targeted Hamas leaders," the White House said. "We have requested further details. Too many civilians have been killed and injured in the Gaza war." The White House statement was relatively moderate compared to other global condemnations. European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, a vocal critic of Israel's actions in Gaza, noted that several schools in Gaza had been targeted in recent weeks. "There’s no justification for these massacres. We are dismayed by the terrible overall death toll," he wrote on X. British Foreign Secretary David Lammy expressed shock over the strike in an X post, emphasizing that "Israel must comply with International Humanitarian Law" while also saying, "Hamas must stop endangering civilians." France issued a strong condemnation as well. "Schools in Gaza have been repeatedly attacked for weeks, resulting in an unacceptable number of civilian casualties," a statement from Paris read. "France reminds Israel of its obligation to respect international humanitarian law and reiterates its call for the unconditional release of all hostages, alongside an immediate cease-fire given Gaza's humanitarian emergency."The strike in central Gaza City's Daraj Tuffah occurred early in the morning and was conducted by Israeli Air Force aircraft, guided by intelligence from Military Intelligence, Shin Bet and Southern Command.  According to the IDF, about 20 terrorists, including senior commanders, were operating from a mosque within the compound, using it to orchestrate terrorist attacks. Gaza's Civil Defense authority, operating under Hamas, claimed that 100 people were killed in the strike, though the exact number remains unclear. BBC cited medical sources reporting a lower number of around 70 fatalities.
The school, like many others throughout Gaza, served as a shelter for displaced civilians, with BBC reporting over 1,000 people were taking refuge there. Jaafar Taha, a Gaza resident living nearby, told the British network that he heard cries of "Help!" from the school after the strike. "The scene was horrifying. There were body parts everywhere, and blood covered the walls," he said.

Extra-tense': Powder-keg Haifa port braces for possible bombardment
Agence France Presse/August 10, 2024
Haifa's residents gaze warily on to the sprawling industrial port that flanks their Israeli city, knowing the potential for a major blast as they brace for possible bombardment from Hezbollah. The historic city cascades down a steep hillside to the very edge of the port, a complex which contains Israel's biggest oil refinery, giant fuel tanks and other highly flammable targets. Memories are vivid in Haifa, about 30 kilometers from the Lebanese border, of the 2006 war with Hezbollah when the group's rockets repeatedly slammed into the city, reducing homes to rubble and leaving more than a dozen people dead. Residents are also aware of the notorious Beirut port blast that killed more than 220 people, injured at least 6,500 and devastated large parts of the Lebanese capital in August 2020. Haifa is now in the crosshairs once again with Iran and its proxies feared to be preparing an attack over last week's killings of top officials from Hezbollah and Palestinian militant group Hamas. "Of course it's a main concern, especially after what we've seen happening four years ago in the harbor of Beirut," long-time resident Patrice Wolff told AFP, when asked about the potential for a big explosion. "We know how damaging it can be, a blast from this area, so we are very conscious of it. And we certainly hope it will not come to be that bad."
'We are very exposed'
Haifa's Mount Carmel offers panoramic views across the city, port, Israeli coast and northern Israel, all the way up to the mountainous, disputed border. However, the area has come under repeated drone attack in recent days, increasing jitters in the frontline region. The residents of Haifa, population 280,000, know the drill: if the air raid siren sounds, or is alerted via smartphone, they have one minute to reach a bomb shelter or secure area. Wolff, 58, who works for a medical supplies company, sleeps with his phone next to him in case of an alert. "We're all very conscious of the risk and we know what to do if things would go astray. We have instructions from the civil defense on how to behave," he said. "We certainly hope that it will not come to this extent but we are very exposed because we're in a straight line from Lebanon."As tensions climb, the number of tourists to the laid-back, beachside city -- home to Jews, Muslims and Christians -- has plunged. "There are fewer tourists now; there used to be a lot, but now there are fewer. Business is slow," said Nadia Abu-Shaker of Humus Abu Shaker, a popular restaurant close to the port. "Many people are afraid and don't leave their homes, they don't go anywhere," she added. However, the prospect of an attack does not faze Abu-Shaker, who lived through the 2006 Hezbollah strikes as well as 1991, when Iraqi missile fire hit her home. "I'm not afraid. I live near the port, at the Abu Shaker restaurant. If there is a war, I'm not afraid because I know that God protects us," she said.
'We don't trust them'
Many of Haifa's hotel rooms are occupied by evacuees from border areas, forced out of their homes by Hezbollah shelling since the Israel-Hamas war started in October. The city has made careful preparations for an attack, opening bomb shelters with capacity for tens of thousands of people, according to Leonid Reznik, head of emergency preparedness at the Haifa municipality. The shelters, many of which are converted underground car parks, can house people for days at a time and come equipped with generators, Wi-Fi, water and first aid, he said. Kindergarten teachers will be deployed to the bigger shelters to keep young children occupied, Reznik added. Haifa's main hospital, which received dead and wounded soldiers during the 2006 war with Lebanon, has a large underground facility that is already in use, he said. "Because we're waiting for the response from the Iranians or Hezbollah, we understand that something will happen. They will not do nothing. They will respond in some way," Reznik said. "We hope it will not be shooting into the city but we understand something will happen." Reassurances that some of the most explosive chemicals have been removed from the port do not reassure Andre Suidan, whose wine shop overlooks the complex. "We don't trust them. We don't trust that they did (move the chemicals)," said the Haifa native, 57, calling the refinery's presence "horrific." "People are completely impatient and they're completely stressed out. These are not normal times," Suidan said."It's affecting people on the street, it's affecting people everywhere. Everybody's extra-tense."

Israel's urban warfare tactics in Gaza offer lessons for NATO armies
Michael Peck/Business Insider/August 10, 2024
300,000 Israeli reserve troops headed to possible land war in GazaScroll back up to restore default view. Many NATO armies may not be prepared for large-scale urban warfare. Israel's operation in Gaza is a test-case for what they may need. The biggest lesson may be arming infantry platoons with as much firepower as possible.Urban warfare in Gaza has revealed a painful truth for NATO: Many of its armies are ill-prepared for fighting in crowded cities. The Israel Defense Forces has achieved some success in adapting new weapons and tactics, such as arming tactical units with missiles and drones rather than relying support from aircraft and artillery, according to a new British study. The problem is that the British Army lacks the equipment to replicate Israeli tactics. "While British troops may be trained to fight like the IDF, they find themselves equipped to die like Hamas," warned the report by the Royal United Services Institute, a British think tank. The British Army is understrength, underequipped and underfunded. But so are many European armies that dwindled after the end of the Cold War. Even some American experts worry about the city-fighting capabilities of the US Army, which is far more lavishly equipped and supplied than its NATO counterparts. There is good reason for concern: urban warfare has become a fixture of warfare on a rapidly urbanizing planet, from Fallujah in 2003 to Bakhmut in 2023.
So it's natural for NATO armies to study how the IDF — a NATO-style mechanized force with a reputation for innovative tactics and high-tech equipment — is battling Hamas among the labyrinthine streets and high-rises of Gaza. Like Western militaries, the last place the IDF wants to fight is in a city, where buildings and rubble shelter the defender, impede armored vehicles and hamper airpower and artillery. Gaza poses an added challenge: a vast tunnel network that Hamas uses for storing weapons and springing hit-and-run attacks. Indeed, Israel even coined a term for this form of combat: "Devastated terrain warfare." Israel's aerial barrage reduced many neighborhoods to rubble before ground forces moved in and is the leading cause of the 39,000 reported Palestinian fatalities. It is a challenging environment for Israel in particular, a small nation of 10 million people that is sensitive to casualties among its soldiers, the majority of whom are reservists. One tactic that proved effective was to give the lower echelon units — such as platoons — small attack drones and anti-tank missiles. "It was discovered that units that had these systems as well as ATGMs [anti-tank guided missiles] could monitor more urban terrain and conduct precision strikes at tempo in support of tactical actions," RUSI said. "The small size of the munitions used meant that they could be used with an expectation of precision."
With Hamas hiding in and raiding from an estimated 450 miles of concrete tunnels, the IDF also found that it couldn't clear buildings first and then destroy the tunnels underneath. "As the operation developed, it became evident that this allowed Hamas to persist in conducting ambushes for a protracted period and to then transition to a layered defense of underground facilities," noted RUSI analysts Jack Watling and Nick Reynolds, who co-authored the report. "Nor could underground infrastructure be safely bypassed." This meant that Israeli troops had to clear the surface and tunnels simultaneously.
Surprisingly, the high-rise buildings of Gaza proved less beneficial to Hamas than anticipated. Fighters stationed in the upper stories had limited visibility and fields of fire, so the tendency was to stick to the first few levels. But tall buildings did help the defender in another way: destroying them with air strikes led to extensive rubble that hampered the attacker's tanks and infantry. The biggest lesson of Gaza is the importance of firepower in urban warfare, according to RUSI. This makes arming tactical units, such as infantry platoons, with as much firepower as possible. Unlike mechanized operations, where low-level infantry and armored units might get air and artillery support from higher headquarters, city fighting tends to be waged by small units.
Firepower played a decisive role "in determining initiative during the fighting in Gaza," RUSI said. "Ultimately, the superiority in responsiveness and organic lethality of IDF units made it costly for Hamas to mount attacks, and the larger the force it endeavored to bring to bear, the higher the cost of any given action. Furthermore, while indirect fire prevented Hamas from concentrating its forces, the limited organic lethality of its teams meant that once they engaged IDF troops, they were quickly suppressed and thereafter destroyed." Another lesson is the importance of air defense. "Buildings do not offer significant protection against air-delivered munitions because of the weight of ordnance that can be dropped with precision," the report pointed out. Airpower also hampers maneuver, a major handicap for armies that usually lack the strength to occupy an entire city, and thus have to redeploy troops to key sectors. "Hamas's lack of ability to threaten Israeli aircraft and ISR [aerial reconnaissance] meant that it was unable to concentrate and lacked freedom of maneuver," said RUSI. "Once its defensive strong points were identified, they could be reduced. The weight of munitions deliverable from the air outweighs anything deliverable from artillery systems, such that many of the defensive advantages of urban terrain can be bypassed if it is possible to conduct precision bombing from medium altitude."In other words, aerial bombing from this altitude is accurate and high volume enough to destroy most urban strongholds or render them useless. This phenomenon has been seen in Ukraine, said Watling and Reynolds, who have extensively studied that conflict. "Whenever the Russian air force has established access at medium altitude near an urban settlement, it has rapidly destroyed it, enabling subsequent capture."However, the lessons of Israeli operations are not always applicable to other conflicts. For example, unlike Russia, Hamas has no artillery, nor electronic warfare to jam Israeli drones and communications, RUSI said. Hamas also only had 40,000 fighters at the war's start, many of whom are now casualties. Michael Peck is a defense writer whose work has appeared in Forbes, Defense News, Foreign Policy magazine, and other publications. He holds an MA in political science from Rutgers Univ. Follow him on Twitter and LinkedIn.

Super Hornet fighter jets loaded with supersonic missiles spotted in Middle East ahead of potential Iranian attacks: report
Cameron Manley/ Business Insider/August 10, 2024
US Navy F/A-18E Super Hornets have arrived in Jordan, The War Zone reported.
It comes as part of a US military build-up in the region ahead of potential Iranian attacks on Israel. Iran has vowed to hit back after the assassination of a top Hamas leader last week. US Navy F/A-18E Super Hornets have arrived in Jordan ahead of potential Iranian attacks on Israel, The War Zone reported.
Images of the jets, which are from Strike Fighter Squadron 25 (VFA-25), were released earlier this week after their arrival at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base on August 3, the report said. The photos showed the jets were primed for air-to-air operations, with each one equipped with at least four AIM-120 Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missiles and four AIM-9X Sidewinders, it added. AIM-120 missiles, also known as AMRAAMs, are supersonic missiles with a launch weight of 335 pounds, according to the US Air Force (USAF). They have a range of more than 20 miles and use a blast fragmentation warhead. Sidewinders are "supersonic, heat-seeking, air-to-air" missiles, the USAF says. They have a launch weight of 190 pounds and an annular blast fragmentation warhead. F-22 fighter jets have also touched down in the CENTCOM area of responsibility. The Super Hornet jets' arrival in the Middle East comes as part of a US military build-up in the region ahead of potential attacks by Iran and its proxies against Israel. Iran has vowed to hit back following the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, one of Hamas' top leaders, in Tehran last week. Iran said Israel was behind the assassination.
Haniyeh was the leader of the political wing of Hamas, the armed group that controls Gaza and which has been at war with Israel since the October 7 attacks. US Central Command said in a post on X on Thursday that some F-22 Raptors had also landed its area of responsibility. USAF F-15E Strike Eagle fighter jets flying out of Jordan were key to Israel's defense against Iran's large-scale attack in April, when Tehran launched some 300 drones and missiles toward Israel.

Gaza civil defense says 93 dead in Israeli strike on school shelter
Agence France Presse/August 10, 2024
Gaza's civil defense agency said Saturday an Israeli air strike on a school housing displaced Palestinians killed 93 people, as Israel's military accused militants of using the building as a command center. AFP could not independently verify the toll which, if confirmed, would appear to be one of the largest from a single strike during 10 months of war between Israel and Hamas Palestinian militants. Hamas denounced the "dangerous escalation" in north Gaza, which came after international mediators invited the warring sides to resume next Thursday talks towards a long-sought ceasefire and hostage-release deal. Jordan's foreign ministry said the timing of the school strike "is an indication of the Israeli government's efforts to obstruct and thwart these efforts."Civil defense in the Hamas-ruled territory said three Israeli missiles hit the school in Gaza City while people performed dawn prayers. "Their bodies were torn apart," civil defense spokesman Mahmoud Bassal told AFP. "It reminds us of the first days of the war in the Gaza Strip."With most of Gaza's 2.4 million people displaced during the war started by Hamas' October 7 attack on southern Israel, many have sought refuge in school buildings, which have been hit at least 14 times since July 6, according to an AFP tally. Israel's army said Saturday it had "precisely struck Hamas terrorists operating within a Hamas command and control center embedded in the Al-Tabieen school." The military has repeatedly made similar accusations after strikes on the school shelters. Hamas has previously denied Israeli claims that it uses schools, hospitals and other civilian facilities for military aims.
Bodies and blood
AFPTV live images from the scene showed a large complex with a courtyard where debris lay inside and out. Part of the structure appeared to be a mosque, the upper story of which was partially blown out and charred. Images showed white-shrouded bodies, blood stains on the ground, and smoke rising from the rubble. Hamas' October 7 attack allegedly resulted in the deaths of 1,198 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on Israeli official figures. Palestinian militants seized 251 hostages, 111 of whom are still held in Gaza, including 39 the Israeli military says are dead. Israel's retaliatory military campaign in Gaza has killed at least 39,699 people, according to Gaza's health ministry. Israel has vowed to destroy Hamas and in January the military said it had dismantled the group's command structure in northern Gaza. But the military has since found itself returning there and to other areas of the territory to battle militants again. Iran has accused Israel of wanting to spread war in the Middle East, and Hamas officials, some analysts and critics in Israel have said Netanyahu has prolonged the fighting. However, Netanyahu's office on Thursday said Israel would send negotiators "to conclude the details of implementing a deal", after the joint invitation from mediators the United States, Qatar and Egypt. The mediators' invitation followed intense diplomacy aimed at averting a region-wide conflagration. In a joint statement Thursday, the three countries' leaders invited the warring parties to resume talks on August 15 in Doha or Cairo "to close all remaining gaps and commence implementation of the deal without further delay".Recent discussions have focused on a framework outlined by U.S. President Joe Biden in late May and later endorsed by the U.N. Security Council. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, in talks with his U.S. counterpart Lloyd Austin, "raised the importance of swiftly achieving" a hostage release deal, Gallant's office said. European Union chief Ursula von der Leyen said on social media platform X: "We need a ceasefire in Gaza now" and expressed strong support for the mediators' efforts.
Engulfed by fire -
Saturday's strike in north Gaza came after the military on Friday said troops were operating around Khan oYunis, the southern Gaza city from which soldiers had withdrawn in April after months of fierce fighting with Hamas. The Gaza war has already drawn in Iran-aligned groups around the region. Fears of a broader Middle East war have surged following vows of vengeance from Lebanon's Hezbollah, Hamas, Iran and others for the killing of two senior militants, including Hamas's political leader. The killing last week of Hamas's Ismail Haniyeh during a visit to Tehran had sidelined truce talks. Iran and Hamas blamed Israel, which has not directly commented. Iran's mission to the United Nations on Saturday said the Islamic republic has "the legitimate right to self-defense" after its sovereignty was "violated." "However, we hope that our response will be timed and conducted in a manner not to the detriment of the potential ceasefire," it said. Haniyeh's death came hours after an Israeli strike on south Beirut killed Fouad Shukur, the military chief of Hezbollah. Israel said this was in response to rocket fire that killed children and teens in the annexed Golan Heights. Hamas ally Hezbollah has been trading near-daily cross-border fire with Israeli forces. On Friday an Israeli strike on a vehicle in the south Lebanon city of Sidon killed a Hamas commander, the Palestinian group and the Israeli military said. AFPTV images showed the car engulfed by fire. It was the first strike of its kind in Sidon during the Gaza war.

Cyprus: We Will Not Participate in Military Operations in the Middle East
This Is Beirut/10 Aug 2024
The spokesperson for the Cypriot government, Constantinos Petrides, affirmed that his country does not participate in military operations and is not involved in any conflict in the Middle East. In response to accusations regarding the presence of foreign military forces and weapons on the island, Petrides indicated that the Cypriot authorities only provide humanitarian assistance. He also stated that “the entire international community recognizes and welcomes the humanitarian role of our country.” Petrides emphasized that Cyprus remains “part of the solution, not part of the problem, and this is recognized by the international community.”

Jordan’s foreign minister says we will not be a battlefield for any party
Reuters/August 10, 2024
CAIRO: Jordan’s Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi said on Saturday that the kingdom would not be a battlefield for any party, adding that the current conflict in the region was essentially action and reaction between Israel and Iran.He also reiterated that Jordan will not allow the violation of its airspace.

Israel lacks political will to end Gaza war: Egypt
Reuters/AFP/August 10, 2024
CAIRO: Egypt said on Saturday that Israel’s “deliberate killing” of unarmed Palestinians shows that it lacks a political will to end the war in Gaza. Egypt’s Foreign Ministry statement came after more than 100 Palestinians were killed and dozens wounded in an Israeli strike on a Gaza school sheltering displaced people, according to the Palestinian news agency. Turkiye denounced the “new crime against humanity” after Israel’s deadly strike on the school in Gaza, according to a Foreign Ministry statement. “Israel has committed a new crime against humanity by massacring more than a hundred civilians who had taken refuge in a school,” the ministry said. “This attack shows once again that the Netanyahu government wants to sabotage permanent ceasefire negotiations. “The international actors who do not take measures to stop Israel are making themselves complicit in these crimes.”A spokesperson for Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, Nabil Abu Rudeineh, urged Washington to put an end to the “blind support that leads to the killing of thousands of innocent civilians, including children, women, and the elderly.”Speaking to Al-Jazeera television, Khalil Al-Hayya, the head of the Hamas team for the indirect ceasefire talks with Israel, said statements of condemnation were no longer sufficient. "Dismiss (Israeli) ambassadors, close down embassies, and sever ties with the occupation," he said.

US ship docks in Cyprus, could assist civilians if Mideast tensions flare
LIMASSOL/Reuters/August 10/2024
A US amphibious assault ship has docked in Cyprus as part of a pre-arranged visit, but could be used to support civilians if hostilities flare in the Middle East, the US ambassador to Cyprus said. EU member Cyprus has offered to assist, if needed, in the evacuation of Europeans and third-country nationals should tensions spill over in the Middle East amid a standoff between Israel, Iran and Iran-affiliated groups. “The visit comes at a time when the United States continues all efforts along with key partners to de-escalate regional tensions and to be prepared to support civilians in crisis,” US Ambassador to Cyprus Julie Fisher said on X on Friday. The USS Wasp arrived in the southern port of Limassol on Aug 8. The eastern Mediterranean island says it is not involved in military operations or any conflict.“Humanitarian assistance is what we do,” said government spokesperson Konstantinos Letymbiotis.

An Israeli airstrike on a Gaza school kills at least 80 people, Palestinian health officials say
DEIR AL-BALAH, Gaza Strip (AP)/August 10, 2024
An Israeli airstrike hit a school-turned-shelter in Gaza City early Saturday, killing at least 80 people, Palestinian health authorities said, in one of the deadliest strikes in the 10-month-old war between Israel and Hamas. The Israeli military acknowledged the strike, claiming it hit a Hamas command center within the school. Hamas denied that. The strike on the Tabeen school in central Gaza City also wounded 47 people, the Health Ministry said. The facility, like almost all of Gaza’s schools, has been used as a shelter for people who have been forced to flee their homes by the war. Video from the scene showed walls blown out on the ground level of a large building. Concrete chunks and twisted metal lay atop the blood-soaked floor, along with clothing, toppled furniture and other debris. A blackened car with the windows blown out was covered in rubble. Fadel Naeem, director of the al-Ahli hospital in Gaza City, told The Associated Press that the facility received 70 bodies of those killed in the strike and the body parts of at least 10 others.The strike hit without warning in the early morning before sunrise as people were praying at a mosque inside the school, according to Abu Anas, a witness who worked to rescue people.“There were people praying, there were people washing and there were people upstairs sleeping, including children, women and old people," he said. “The missile fell on them without warning. The first missile, and the second. We recovered them as body parts.”Three missiles ripped through the school and the mosque inside, where about 6,000 displaced people were taking shelter from the war, said Mahmoud Bassal, a spokesperson for the Civil Defense first responders who operate under the Hamas-run local government. Many of the dead were unrecognizable, he said, adding that he expected the death toll to rise. Many of the casualties were women and children, he said. According to the United Nations, 477 out of 564 schools in Gaza had been directly hit or damaged in the war as of July 6. In June, an Israeli strike on a school sheltering displaced Palestinians in central Gaza killed at least 33 people, including 12 women and children, according to local health officials. On Thursday Israel’s military hit two schools sheltering displaced people in eastern Gaza City, killing at least 15 people, according to hospital officials. Israel has blamed civilian deaths in Gaza on Hamas, saying the group endangers noncombatants by using schools and residential neighborhoods as bases for operations and attacks. Israeli intelligence indicated about 20 militants from Hamas and Islamic Jihad, including senior commanders, were using the Tabeen school compound to plan attacks on Israeli forces, Lt. Col. Nadav Shoshani, an Israeli military spokesman said in a statement on the social media platform X.
Izzat al-Rishq, a top Hamas official denied there were militants in the school.
Shoshani also questioned the casualty numbers issued by the Palestinian Health Ministry. Israel said the targeted school was located next to a mosque serving as a shelter for Gaza City residents. A cameraman working for The Associated Press said, however, that the mosque and the classrooms were in one building, with the prayer hall on the ground floor and the school above it. A missile appeared to have penetrated through the floor of the classrooms to the mosque below and then exploded, according to the cameraman. The strike came as American, Qatari and Egyptian mediators renewed their push for the two parties to achieve a cease-fire agreement that could help calm soaring tensions in the region following the assassination of top Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and a senior Hezbollah commander in Beirut. Egypt, which borders Gaza and serves as a key mediator, said the strike on the school showed Israel had no intention of reaching a cease-fire deal and ending the war. Neighboring Jordan also condemned the attack, calling it a “blatant violation” of international law. Late Friday, two separate airstrikes in central Gaza killed at least 13 people including three children and seven women, hospital authorities said. An Associated Press journalist counted the bodies at the al-Aqsa Martyrs hospital in the central city of Deir al-Balah. One strike hit a house in the Nuseirat refugee camp, killing seven people, all but one of them women, hospital officials said. Another hit a house in Deir al-Balah, killing six, including a woman and her three children, the hospital said. Israel’s campaign in Gaza has killed more than 39,600 Palestinians and wounded more than 91,700 others, according to the enclave's Health Ministry. The war was triggered by Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack, in which militants from Gaza stormed into southern Israel, killing around 1,200 people and abducting 250 others. More than 1.9 million of Gaza’s prewar population of 2.3 million have been driven from their homes, fleeing repeatedly across the territory to escape offensives. Most are now crowded into ramshackle tent camps in an area of about 50 square kilometers (19 square miles) on the Gaza coast.

Iran’s new president reappoints UN-sanctioned official as head of the country's nuclear agency
Amir Vahdat/TEHRAN, Iran (AP) /August 10, 2024
Iran’s newly-elected president reappointed a U.S.-educated official who came under United Nations sanctions 16 years ago as head of the country’s nuclear department, state TV reported Saturday.
Mohammad Eslami, 67, will continue his work as chief of Iran's civilian nuclear program and serve as one of several vice presidents. Eslami's reappointment by President Masoud Pezeshkian comes as Iran remains under heavy sanctions by the West following the collapse of the 2015 deal that curbed Iran’s nuclear activities in exchange for sanctions relief. Pezeshkian had said during his presidential campaign that he would try to revive the nuclear deal. The United Nations sanctioned Eslami in 2008 for “being engaged in, directly associated with or providing support for Iran’s proliferation of sensitive nuclear activities or for the development of nuclear weapon delivery systems”, when he was the head of Iran’s Defense Industries Training and Research Institute. He was appointed as the chief of Iran’s nuclear department for the first time by late President Ebrahim Raisi in 2021, before that, from 2018, in moderate former President Hassan Rouhani’s era, Eslami served as Transport and Urban Development Minister.He has experience working in Iran’s military industries, for years, most recently as deputy defense minister responsible for research and industry.
Eslami holds degrees in civil engineering from Detroit University of Michigan and the University of Toledo, Ohio.The U.S., France, Britain and Germany accused Iran of escalating its nuclear activities far beyond limits it agreed to in the 2015 deal and of failing to cooperate with the U.N. nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency. Iran accused the U.S. and its allies of continuing to apply economic sanctions that were supposed to be lifted under the deal, and insisted its nuclear program is peaceful and geared towards generating electricity and producing radioisotopes to treat cancer patients and remains under constant oversight by the IAEA. Iran is building two nuclear power facilities to supplement its sole operational 1,000-megawatt reactor at the southern port town of Bushehr, which went online with Russia’s help in 2011. Under its long-term energy plan, Iran aims to reach 20,000-megawatt nuclear electric capacity. The nation has in recent months faced country-wide power outages.
Amir Vahdat, The Associated Press

Ukraine is striking targets hundreds of miles inside Russia for 3 key reasons, say
Cameron Manley/Business Insider/ August 10, 2024
Ukraine has been striking targets deep inside Russian territory. Many of the attacks have focused on airbases or energy infrastructure. Experts told BI that Ukraine was hoping to cause strategic, economic, and psychological damage to Russia.
In late July, Ukraine said it had struck a Russian Tu-22M3 supersonic bomber at Olenya airbase in Murmansk, a record-breaking 1,100 miles inside Russian territory. While the news grabbed headlines, it was not the first time that Ukraine has reportedly targeted sites deep within Russia. In June, the GUR defense intelligence agency said Ukrainian forces had hit a prized Russian Su-57 fighter jet stationed at an airfield in the Astrakhan region of southern Russia, around 360 miles from the frontline. And in May, Ukraine's Security Service said a long-range Ukrainian drone struck a Gazprom oil refinery roughly 930 miles away in the Russian republic of Bashkortostan. Ukraine does not currently have permission to use long-range guided weapons such as the ATACMS to hit such targets inside Russia. It has instead made use of cheap, domestically-produced drones for long-range attacks, Mark Cancian, a Senior Adviser on the International Security Program at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, told BI. "These are packed with explosives and flown deep into Russia," Cancian said. While striking targets so far from the frontline may be seen as Ukraine spreading itself rather thinly, such attacks have three key benefits, experts told BI. Strikes on military-related sites, like airbases or defense-industrial facilities, aim to take out or temporarily disable assets that Russia uses to facilitate its war against Ukraine.And even seemingly small strikes can have a major impact. In the case of the Olenya airbase strike, which Ukraine later said had damaged two of the Tu-22M3 bombers, Justin Bronk, a Senior Research Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, said that it would have had a "measurable effect.""Russia's active fleet is not large and even the temporary loss of two airframes for missile launch sorties against Ukraine will have a measurable effect," he said. Strikes on oil refineries also aim to "hurt Moscow's pocketbook," John Hardie, Deputy Director of the Russia Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told BI. Although, he added, the extent to which they've done so is "debatable."Russia's oil revenue in April more than doubled year on year, Bloomberg previously reported, highlighting the Kremlin's apparent success in rediverting operations.Reuters reported in April that Russia also appeared to be able to quickly repair some of the key refining facilities damaged by Ukrainian strikes, reducing impacted capacity to roughly 10% from nearly 14% at the end of March, per the news agency's calculations.
Putting pressure on Russian air defenses
Ukraine is also hoping to "overwhelm Russian air defenses" with "mass" drone attacks, Hardie said, adding that it can be "difficult for air defense systems to detect and shoot down UAVs that are small in size or flying low to the ground.""Russia has already adapted its air defense posture following previous drone strikes and reportedly has stood up mobile counter-UAS [unmanned aircraft system] teams. But Russia is a vast country, so defending everywhere is difficult," he said. Moscow also started "well after Ukraine in developing countermeasures to the long-range UAV threat," Hardie added, and it "hasn't stood up anything like the system of cheap, distributed sensors that Ukraine uses to detect Shahed UAVs."Russia's S-400 is one of its most advanced air defense systems.  As a result, these attacks present Russia with a "serious dilemma," Bronk said. Given the vastness of Russia's territory and the number of potential targets Ukraine could hit, Moscow "is either forced to protect by taking air defence systems away from the frontline areas; or to leave [domestic targets] undefended which results in consistent harassing damage," he said.
Psychological warfare
Deep Ukrainian attacks within Russian territory also present the Kremlin with a serious political problem — ordinary Russians start to realize that "the state cannot fully defend its own airspace," Bronk said. Cancian agreed, saying the "psychological" impact of these attacks was crucial. One of Ukraine's main goals was "military embarrassment and popular anxiety," he said. It shows the Russian people that "there is a price for attacking Ukraine," he added.

Russia launches new operation to halt advancing Ukrainian troops
Agence France Presse/10 Aug 2024
Moscow on Saturday mounted an operation in three border regions adjoining Ukraine to halt Kyiv's biggest cross-border offensive in the two-and-a-half-year conflict. Ukrainian units stormed across the border into Russia's western Kursk region on Tuesday morning in a shock attack and have advanced several kilometers, according to independent analysts. Russia's army has rushed in extra troops and equipment, including convoys of tanks, rocket launchers and aviation units -- though neither side has given precise details on the extent of the forces they have committed. At least 3,000 civilians have been evacuated from Russian border areas, where emergency aid and medical supplies have been ferried in, while extra trains to the capital Moscow have been put on for people looking to flee. "The war has come to us," one woman who fled the border zone told AFP at a Moscow train station on Friday, declining to give her name.
Russia's army said Ukraine initially dispatched around 1,000 troops, and more than two dozen armored combat vehicles and tanks -- but it has since claimed to have destroyed around five times as many pieces of military hardware. AFP could not verify those numbers and both sides have repeatedly been accused of inflating the number of enemy losses while downplaying their own setbacks. Russia's national anti-terrorism committee said late Friday it was starting "counter-terror operations in the Belgorod, Bryansk and Kursk regions ... in order to ensure the safety of citizens and suppress the threat of terrorist acts being carried out by the enemy's sabotage groups."Security forces and the military are given sweeping emergency powers during "counter-terror" operations. Movement is restricted, vehicles can be seized, phone calls can be monitored, areas are declared no-go zones, checkpoints introduced, and security is beefed up at key infrastructure sites. The anti-terrorism committee said Ukraine had mounted an "unprecedented attempt to destabilize the situation in a number of regions of our country."It called Ukraine's incursion a "terrorist attack" and said Kyiv's troops had wounded civilians and destroyed residential buildings. The health ministry said Friday that 55 civilians were in hospital, 12 in a serious condition.
'Particularly effective'
Several Russian media outlets shared a video purporting to show residents from the Sudzha district of Kursk, where Ukraine's offensive has focused, appealing to President Vladimir Putin for help, warning that many were unable to evacuate. Russia on Friday appeared to hit back at the incursion, launching a missile strike on a supermarket in the east Ukrainian town of Kostyantynivka that killed at least 14 people. The U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War said Saturday it believed Ukrainian forces had pierced around 13 kilometers (eight miles) into Russian territory, though cautioned assessing the position of Ukraine's troops was difficult. Ukraine's leaders have remained tight-lipped on the operation. The United States, Kyiv's closest ally, said it was not informed of the plans in advance. But President Volodymyr Zelensky has appeared to tout his troops early successes, saying earlier this week that Russia must "feel" the consequences of the full-scale offensive it launched in February 2022. On Friday he also thanked Ukrainian troops for the "replenishment of the exchange fund" -- language used to refer to the capture of Russian soldiers, who can later be swapped for captured Ukrainians. "This is extremely important and has been particularly effective over the last three days," he said, again without making any specific reference to the Kursk incursion. Russian military bloggers, who typically post more open, detailed and timely information than the defense ministry in Moscow, previously reported several Russian soldiers had been taken prisoner by Ukraine. Russia's defense ministry published footage on Saturday of tank crews firing on Ukrainian positions in the Kursk region, as well as an overnight air strike, after it said Friday it had deployed yet more units to the border region. Elsewhere on the frontline, Ukrainian officials said two were killed in the northeast Kharkiv region and one in the city of Kramatorsk. The Ukrainian army on Saturday reported a reduced number of "combat engagements" inside Ukraine -- a possible sign that its incursion into Russia could be working to relieve pressure on other parts of the sprawling frontline where Moscow's troops had been advancing.

Iran to deliver hundreds of ballistic missiles to Russia soon, intel sources say
Reuters/August 10, 2024
TEHRAN: Dozens of Russian military personnel are being trained in Iran to use the Fath-360 close-range ballistic missile system, two European intelligence sources told Reuters, adding that they expected the imminent delivery of hundreds of the satellite-guided weapons to Russia for its war in Ukraine. Russian defense ministry representatives are believed to have signed a contract on Dec. 13 in Tehran with Iranian officials for the Fath-360 and another ballistic missile system built by Iran’s government-owned Aerospace Industries Organization (AIO) called the Ababil, according to the intelligence officials, who requested anonymity in order to discuss sensitive matters. Citing multiple confidential intelligence sources, the officials said that Russian personnel have visited Iran to learn how to operate the Fath-360 defense system, which launches missiles with a maximum range of 120 km (75 miles) and a warhead of 150 kg. One of the sources said that that “the only next possible” step after training would be actual delivery of the missiles to Russia. Moscow possesses an array of its own ballistic missiles, but the supply of Fath-360s could allow Russia to use more of its arsenal for targets beyond the front line, while employing Iranian warheads for closer-range targets, a military expert said. A spokesman for the US National Security Council said the United States and its NATO allies and G7 partners “are prepared to deliver a swift and severe response if Iran were to move forward with such transfers.”It “would represent a dramatic escalation in Iran’s support for Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine,” the spokesman said. “The White House has repeatedly warned of the deepening security partnership between Russia and Iran since the outset of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.”Russia’s defense ministry did not respond to a request for comment. Iran’s permanent mission to the United Nations in New York said in a statement that the Islamic Republic had forged a long-term strategic partnership with Russia in various areas, including military cooperation. “Nevertheless, from an ethical standpoint, Iran refrains from transferring any weapons, including missiles, that could potentially be used in the conflict with Ukraine until it is over,” the statement said.
The White House declined to confirm that Iran was training Russian military personnel on the Fath-360 or that it was preparing to ship the weapons to Russia for use against Ukraine. The two intelligence sources gave no exact timeframe for the expected delivery of Fath-360 missiles to Russia but said it would be soon. They did not provide any intelligence on the status of the Abibal contract. A third intelligence source from another European agency said it had also received information that Russia had sent soldiers to Iran to train in the use of Iranian ballistic missile systems, without providing further details. Such training is standard practice for Iranian weapons supplied to Russia, said the third source, who also declined to be named because of the sensitivity of the information. A senior Iranian official, who requested anonymity, said Iran had sold missiles and drones to Russia but has not provided Fath-360 missiles. There was no legal prohibition on Tehran selling such weapons to Russia, the source added. “Iran and Russia engage in the mutual purchase of parts and military equipment. How each country uses this equipment is entirely their decision,” the official said, adding that Iran did not sell weapons to Russia for use in the Ukraine war. As part of the military cooperation, Iranian and Russian officials often traveled between the two states, the official added.
“Destabilizing actions“
Until now, Iran’s military support for Moscow has been limited mainly to unmanned Shahed attack drones, which carry a fraction of the explosives and are easier to shoot down because they are slower than ballistic missiles. Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency said in July 2023 that a new training system for the Fath 360 had been successfully tested by the country’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) Ground Force. Justin Bronk, Senior Research Fellow for Air Power at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a London-based defense think-tank, said: “Delivery of large numbers of short-range ballistic missiles from Iran to Russia would enable a further increase in pressure on already badly overstretched Ukrainian missile defense systems.”“As ballistic threats, they could only be intercepted reliably by the upper tier of Ukrainian systems,” he said, referring to the most sophisticated air defenses Ukraine has such as the US-made Patriot and European SAMP/T systems. Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense did not have any immediate comment. In March, G7 leaders voiced concern at reports Iran was considering transferring ballistic missiles to Russia and warned in a statement that they would respond in a coordinated manner with significant measures against Iran. The NSC spokesman, in response to Reuters questions, noted that Iran’s newly elected President Masoud Pezeshkian “claimed he wanted to moderate Iran’s policies and engage with the world. Destabilizing actions like this fly in the face of that rhetoric.”A British government spokesman expressed deep concern at the reports suggesting that Russian military personnel were being trained in Iran. “Iran must not proceed” with the transfer of ballistic missiles, he said. UN Security Council restrictions on Iran’s export of some missiles, drones and other technologies expired in October 2023. However, the United States and European Union retained sanctions on Iran’s ballistic missile program amid concerns over exports of weapons to its proxies in the Middle East and to Russia. Reuters reported in February on deepening military cooperation between Iran and Russia and on Moscow’s interest in Iranian surface-to-surface missiles. Sources told the news agency at the time that around 400 Fateh-110 longer-range surface-to-surface ballistic missiles had been delivered. But the European intelligence sources told Reuters that according to their information, no transfer had happened yet. Ukrainian authorities have not publicly reported finding any Iranian missile remnants or debris during the war.

US troops attacked in Syria, no initial reports of injuries, official says
Reuters/August 10, 2024
WASHINGTON: US troops in northeastern Syria were attacked by a drone, a US official told Reuters, although there were no injuries according to initial reports. This is the second attack in recent days against US forces in the Middle East as the region braces for a possible new wave of attacks by Iran and its allies. Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of Iran-backed Hamas, was assassinated in the Iranian capital Tehran on July 31, an attack that drew threats of revenge by Iran against Israel, which is fighting the Palestinian Islamist group in Gaza. Iran blamed Israel for the killing. Israel has not claimed responsibility.
The assassination and the killing of the senior military commander of the Iran-backed Lebanese group Hezbollah, Fuad Shukr, by Israel in a strike on Beirut, have fueled concern the conflict in Gaza was turning into a wider Middle East war. Iran has said the US bears responsibility in the assassination of Haniyeh because of its support for Israel. “Initial reports do not indicate any injuries, however medical evaluations are ongoing. We are currently conducting a damage assessment,” the US official said on the condition of anonymity about the attack in Syria. The attack took place at Rumalyn Landing Zone, which hosts US troops along with those from the US-led coalition.Five US personnel were injured when two Katyusha rockets were fired at Ain Al-Asad air base in western Iraq on Monday, an attack the Pentagon blamed on Iran-backed proxies. The United States has 900 troops in Syria and 2,500 in neighboring Iraq, who it says are on a mission to advise and assist local forces trying to prevent a resurgence of Daesh, which in 2014 seized large swaths of both countries but was later pushed back.

The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources on August 10-11/2024
Iran's Mullahs Iranian Mullahs Will Not Stop Unless They Are Stopped
Majid Rafizadeh/Gatestone Institute./August 10, 2024
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2024/08/133157/
Since the Biden-Harris administration came into power in 2021, the Iranian regime's belligerent behavior has reached unprecedented levels. The only way to stop this regime's aggression is a response that makes it clear that the cost of any further malign activity on the part of them -- or their proxies -- will be a price too high to pay.
The fingerprints and influence of Iran are evident in countless conflicts – both global and regional. Iran, along with Qatar, have been key players in the war against Israel.
Iran was also behind "over 150 attacks" on US troops in the Middle East, just since October 7, 2023, wounding many American troops.
So long as the Iranian regime is allowed to expand its influence and wreak havoc –before it has nuclear bombs -- global security will continue to deteriorate. Just imagine what Iran will do once it has them. The only way to stop the Iranian regime's aggression is a response that makes it clear that the cost of any further malign activity on the part of them -- or their proxies -- will be a price too high to pay.
Since the Biden-Harris administration came into power in 2021, the Iranian regime's belligerent behavior has reached unprecedented levels. The only way to stop this regime's aggression is a response that makes it clear that the cost of any further malign activity on the part of them -- or their proxies -- will be a price too high to pay.
The fingerprints and influence of Iran are evident in countless conflicts – both global and regional. Iran, along with Qatar, have been key players in the war against Israel. Leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah, as reported by the Wall Street Journal, have openly admitted that Iran was involved in the attack, and quoted "senior members of Hamas and Hezbollah" as acknowledging that Iran's regime leaders were instrumental in planning the brutal assault. In addition, The Washington Post reported that, according to U.S. intelligence sources, Iran "provided military training and logistical help as well as tens of millions of dollars for weapons."
Iran contributes approximately $100 million annually to Palestinian terrorist organizations such as Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and $700 million annually to Hezbollah. As U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) stated:
"93% of Hezbollah and Hamas' money comes from Iran. They're the source of the problem. They're the great evil. So, if Hezbollah escalates against Israel, it will be because Iran told them to. Then Iran, you're in the crosshairs of the United States and Israel."
Iran was also behind "over 150 attacks" on US troops in the Middle East, just since October 7, 2023, wounding many American troops.
Furthermore, Yemen's Houthis have effectively blocked the Red Sea and the Suez Canal for commercial maritime traffic, forcing ships that are refused insurance due to Houthi threats to travel around the entire African continent.
The Houthis, with Iranian backing, also continue to amass weapons in Yemen, and have joined Iran in attacking Israel, resulting in deaths and injuries. Iranian aggression also appears to be aimed at pushing the U.S. out of the region.
The Iranian regime, from the beginning, has supported Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Since then, Iran has apparently become a significant arms supplier to Russia, beyond just supplying attack drones. A report from Sky News revealed:
"Iran has secretly supplied large quantities of bullets, rockets and mortar shells to Russia for the war in Ukraine and plans to send more... The source claimed that two Russian-flagged cargo ships, departed an Iranian port in January bound for Russia via the Caspian Sea, carrying approximately 100 million bullets and around 300,000 shells. Ammunition for rocket launchers, mortars and machine guns was allegedly included in the shipments. The source said Moscow paid for the ammunition in cash."
Iran's regime also reportedly deployed troops to aid Russia to attack Ukraine's infrastructure and civilian population.
A serious response to Iran should include targeting its key infrastructure, such as oil and gas facilities, training bases, and basic infrastructure such as electric grids. U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham has suggested, as Tehran's main revenue comes from oil exports:
"What I would do, is I would bomb Iran's oil infrastructure. The money financing terrorism comes from Iran. It's time for this terrorist state to pay a price for financing and supporting all this chaos."
Even destroying a few oil refineries could "send a message" and force Iran's leaders to reconsider their actions.
Additionally, imposing economic sanctions to cut off funding to Iran and its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps should be a priority. Furthermore, the Biden-Harris administration should enforce secondary sanctions -- prohibiting US commerce with any country that does business with Iran. The ban would include countries such as China that violate U.S. sanctions by purchasing massive amounts of oil from Iran at deeply discounted prices. Nations should be forced to choose between doing business with the U.S. or Iran —not both.
So long as the Iranian regime is allowed to expand its influence and wreak havoc –before it has nuclear bombs -- global security will continue to deteriorate. Just imagine what Iran will do once it has them.
*Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a business strategist and advisor, Harvard-educated scholar, political scientist, board member of Harvard International Review, and president of the International American Council on the Middle East. He has authored several books on Islam and US Foreign Policy. He can be reached at Dr.Rafizadeh@Post.Harvard.Edu
© 2024 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Deepening US reliance stalls Israeli preemptive strikes; time for a strategic shift
Ron Ben-Yishai/Ynetnews/August 10/2024
Analysis: Biden administration urges Israel to a preemptive strike against Iran and Hezbollah, as Washington and Jerusalem form joint national security plan; concerns include US forces' safety, upcoming elections and ties to Ukraine conflict
Israel's restraint in the face of potential Iranian and Hezbollah retaliation finds its roots in Washington. The current Democratic administration is deeply concerned about the prospect of a regional war and is determined to prevent it, particularly as U.S. elections approach. Both the Biden-Harris administration and the Republicans, led by former President Donald Trump, are committed to preventing a regional war and reaching a cease-fire for several reasons. The first reason is the potential threat to U.S. troops stationed in the Middle East, including 2,500 in Iraq and 900 in Syria. This threat materialized last week in Iraq when Iraqi Shiite militias attacked the Ain al-Assad base with Grad rockets, injuring several U.S. soldiers. This is merely a precursor to what the U.S. anticipates if Israel launches a preemptive strike on Iran. A similar incident occurred on Saturday when Syrian Shiite militias used a drone to attack a U.S. base in northeastern Syria. President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris do not want to see U.S. soldiers and civilians returning in coffins from the Middle East, especially during the election campaign, as Trump will undoubtedly use it against them. The second reason is that the U.S. might be required to deploy additional forces to the Middle East to support Israel and its allies, such as Saudi Arabia and Jordan. These "boots on the ground," as they're called in Washington, could face casualties. There are already U.S. troops on the ground in the Middle East, and a large contingent of Marines has arrived in Cyprus on landing ships to evacuate U.S. citizens from the region if necessary. Both the Biden administration and Trump are keen to avoid an increase in U.S. military presence in the Middle East. A regional war before the elections would be a disaster for the Democrats, as Trump would use it against them.
The third reason is that a regional war would benefit Russia, and to some extent, China, Washington’s main rivals. Such a conflict would divert global and Western attention from Ukraine and strain the U.S. and its NATO allies' logistical support for Kyiv, as some of their munitions would have to be redirected to Israel. The fourth reason is that a regional war would confront the Biden-Harris administration with the progressive pro-Palestinian wing of their party, potentially costing the Democrats, led by Vice President Kamala Harris, critical swing states like Michigan.
All of the above explains why the U.S. is urging Israel, in secret talks, to refrain from a preemptive strike.
Israel is complying because a preemptive strike is complex militarily due to Iran's distance and size, requiring an Israeli military effort that may be unsustainable if a full-scale exchange of blows develops. Israel desperately needs active and massive U.S. backing, which, under current conditions, won't be available if it initiates a preemptive strike on Iran.  On the other hand, Israel could deliver an effective preemptive strike against Hezbollah and Lebanon, preventing the retaliatory strike threatened by Hezbollah's Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah. Israel is ready to act now, at a moment's notice. The plans, weapons and aircraft are prepared—only the order is needed to end this frustrating and destructive waiting period. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the defense establishment agree that the IDF will not launch a preemptive strike to avoid the regional war that the U.S. fears.
The almost certain scenario is that if the IDF launched a preemptive strike on Hezbollah and Lebanon, similar to the Israeli Air Force's actions at the start of the 2006 Lebanon War when it neutralized Hezbollah's heavy Zelzal missiles in Operation Density within 39 minutes, Iran and its proxies would likely join the fight, leading to the regional war the U.S. is determined to prevent.
Gone are the days when Israel dealt individually with each element of the radical Shiite axis. Any Israeli initiative could now provoke a war with the entire bloc led by Iran.  Meanwhile, Washington applies considerable diplomatic pressure and offers incentives to dissuade Israel from attacking first, resulting in the frustrating wait we're currently experiencing. The growing US-Israeli interdependence.  Three seemingly unrelated stories published in the last 24 hours in the U.S. highlight the increasing interdependence between Jerusalem and Washington, approaching a near symbiotic relationship. This dynamic is evident not only in the national security interests of the U.S. and Israel—now intertwined as never before since October 7—but also in the domestic politics of both nations. The first story concerns the approval for Israel to use $3.5 billion from a previously approved aid package by Congress. The second story highlights worrying signs regarding Iran's nuclear weapons program. The third story involves a public rebuke from senior U.S. officials directed at Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich over his comments about Israel's "moral right" to starve Gaza's two million residents. The first story, granting Israel permission to utilize $3.5 billion from the $14.1 billion aid package approved by Congress over six months ago, serves as one of the "carrots" the Democratic administration uses to reward Jerusalem for "good behavior" aligned with the interests of the Biden administration and its vice president. This positive reinforcement is also intended to extract goodwill from Netanyahu regarding what is called the "hostage release deal" in Israel and the "war-ending deal" in the U.S.
The Biden-Harris administration aims to present the end of the Middle Eastern conflict and the hostage release as achievements within their election campaign. Another motivation behind this surprise gesture is to demonstrate to the region's Arab countries, U.S. allies and other global allies, such as those in Europe and Asia, that Uncle Sam is a loyal friend who comes to the aid of its allies, even amid disagreements. The second story serves as a deterrent to Iran, signaling that the U.S. stands alongside Israel in the short term, offering military support against missile and drone attacks, and in the long term, should Tehran complete its preparations to develop a nuclear weapon. In this regard, a report submitted by the U.S. Intelligence Community to Congress was published Friday, detailing the progress of Iran's nuclear weapons program. The report suggests that Iran has already achieved the status of a "nuclear threshold state" regarding uranium enrichment. More importantly, it indicates that Tehran is preparing and taking indirect actions to proceed to the next stage of developing the weapon itself. The report explicitly states that Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has not yet given the order to develop a nuclear explosive device or a nuclear warhead for a missile. According to the report, Tehran is not currently running an active project in this area. Still, Iranian scientists are conducting research that could aid the Islamic Republic should it decide to renew its "weapons program."This information complements reports that Iran is also acquiring dual-use components that could help develop and manufacture a nuclear explosive device and warhead. This means that the significant confrontation with Iran and the radical Shiite axis is still ahead, and we will need U.S. assistance to prevent Tehran from acquiring a nuclear weapon and posing an existential threat to Israel's security.
The third story involves a public reprimand directed at Smotrich from the White House National Security Council spokesperson and the U.S. ambassador in an interview with Dana Weiss on Channel 12. In both cases, the reprimand explicitly mentioned Smotrich by name, who said that Israel was providing aid to the Gaza Strip because "there is no choice" and "it may be moral to starve two million Gazans."This step, which breaks diplomatic protocol, points to the growing involvement of the U.S. administration in Israeli domestic politics. This time it is not through leaks, as there have been many recently in Washington against Netanyahu, but directly—toward a minister whose words could provoke not only the progressive wing of the Democratic Party but also broad constituencies in Western Europe, providing destructive political ammunition to international courts in The Hague dealing with Israel.
Smotrich's irresponsible and foolish remarks, reflecting the worldview of the current government's finance minister, cause damage not only to Israel but could also impact Harris' chances in the presidential race. This is further evidence of the symbiosis and mutual dependence between the U.S. and Israel, which is deepening in all areas. Just as the radical Shiite axis has "fused" over the past months into a single bloc whose components operate in coordination and mutual assistance, including Iran, as seen in the April missile and drone attack, so too is the pro-Western bloc, which includes not only the regional countries, the U.S. and Israel, but also Britain and France, growing closer. While there are risks in this development, it also presents an opportunity for Israel to leverage U.S. support efficiently to advance its national security interests without losing its freedom of decision and operational action.
In the Middle East, the U.S. needs Israel and its military and intelligence capabilities almost as much as Jerusalem needs Washington. Therefore, mutual consideration of each other's interests must continue and strengthen, with the next step being implementing a hostage release deal that can extricate both countries from the current strategic deadlock.

Biden looks for legacy on foreign front
Andrew Hammond/Arab News/August 10, 2024
Joe Biden viewed the Asia-Pacific region as key to his foreign policy when he took office as president in 2021. However, the crisis in Gaza and the wider Middle East since late 2023, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, has shifted his administration’s focus in consequential, unexpected ways.
The fact that the Middle East remains uppermost in the minds of the Biden team was once again illustrated when US Secretary of State Antony Blinken cut short by a day a recent trip to Asia so that he could be present at a White House meeting between Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on July 25. Nonetheless, with about six months remaining in office, Biden and Blinken still seek to craft a foreign policy legacy in the vast Asia-Pacific arena. It was regarding this, and reassurances about US commitment to the region, that Blinken engaged with allies during his recent trip to the region. The Biden team’s achievements include the development of deeper partnerships across the region since 2021, including with India, Japan, Australia, South Korea, and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.
Moreover, in October 2021 Biden said the US on his watch would defend Taiwan if China attacked, which was an apparent departure from Washington’s long-held foreign policy position of “strategic ambiguity” on this issue. While the White House asserted there had been “no change in our policy,” Chinese President Xi Jinping complained the US was seeking “all-around containment, encirclement, and suppression against us.”
This was the context that shaped Blinken’s trip last month. It was his 18th to the region since taking office in 2021 and took place very soon after Biden’s withdrawal from the 2024 presidential race. The overall stated goal of the visit, which might be his last as secretary of state, was “advancing a free and open” Asia-Pacific. There was also a great need to offer reassurances about US policy on the region under the next president. Allies in Asia have significant concerns about what a second Trump presidency might bring, not least because while he was in office between 2017 and 2021 he indicated that the six-decade-long US military presence in Japan and South Korea might be reduced or eliminated entirely. The Biden team, meanwhile, has plans to establish in Japan a new Joint Force Headquarters for the almost 55,000 US military personnel stationed there. This is proposed as a counterpoint to Japan’s planned Joint Operations Command for its own armed forces. Blinken’s visit in July, his longest tour of the region as secretary of state, encompassed visits to six countries. It began in Laos, where he attended the annual ASEAN Regional Forum alongside the foreign ministers of ASEAN member states and regional powers such as China, Australia, Japan, Russia, South Korea, and India.
With about six months remaining in office, Biden and Blinken seek to craft a foreign policy legacy in the vast Asia-Pacific arena.
He then headed to Vietnam to offer condolences following the death of communist leader Nguyen Phu Trong. Last year, Washington and Hanoi upgraded their ties to the level of a comprehensive strategic partnership. Moreover, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has proposed Vietnam as a “friendshoring” destination to help diversify US supply chains away from China in advance of a pending US decision that would potentially upgrade Vietnam to “market-economy status.”Blinken also visited Tokyo, where he and US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin held “2+2” talks with their Japanese counterparts, during which they concluded that China’s “foreign policy seeks to reshape the international order for its own benefit at the expense of others.” They also took part in a meeting of the so-called “quad” nations, with their Japanese, Australian, and Indian counterparts.
Austin also joined Blinken in the Philippines for more “2+2” talks, given that Manila, like Tokyo, has a mutual defense treaty with the US. The final two important stops on the tour were Singapore and Mongolia. All this activity reinforces the fact that Biden and Blinken have not lost sight of their longer-term ambition to intensify the US “pivot” toward the Asia-Pacific region. This, despite the fact that Biden’s greatest international legacy as president might be his determined defense of Ukraine, and his wider statecraft that has helped to strengthen the fragile Western alliance.
While Russia remains the main immediate threat to Washington’s security interests, this has done little to alter the administration’s view that Beijing remains the paramount, longer-term challenge.
In Laos, Blinken reiterated this point to his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, and expressed specific concerns about Beijing’s “destabilizing actions” in the South China Sea, through which trillions of dollars of shipborne trade passes each year to destinations including the Philippines, which since the election of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. in June 2022 has moved toward closer relations with the US. Blinken also criticized China’s extensive support for Russia’s defense-industrial base, which NATO leaders recently said in a joint statement had been a “decisive enabler” of Russia’s war against Ukraine. The US and Europe have in recent months accused Beijing of sending large amounts of dual-use goods to Moscow, and have sanctioned businesses in Hong Kong and mainland China.
Blinken’s meeting with his Chinese counterpart also followed the recent interception by North American Aerospace Defense Command of two Russian and two Chinese bombers close to Alaska. It was the first time aircraft from those nations had been spotted in the area operating in a coordinated fashion.
Taking all of this together, the next six months might therefore prove to be one of the most important periods in the recent history of the Asia-Pacific, as Biden and Blinken seek to nail down their legacy in the region.
While the uncertainties surrounding a potential second Trump term continue to grow, there will be a determined effort to double down on US attention to the region and reemphasize the US pivot there.
• Andrew Hammond is an associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics.

Sudan needs peace now
Hafed Al-Ghwell/Arab News/August 10, 2024
The civil war in Sudan that began in April 2023 is on the verge of plunging the entire Horn of Africa into turmoil. With nearly 10 million people internally displaced and more than 25 million facing acute hunger, the humanitarian toll is already catastrophic and continues to escalate. This tragedy stems from an unending cycle of failed peace initiatives and the intensification of the conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces. Ironically, each attempt at peace seems only to exacerbate the war, plunging civilians deeper into despair.
The chaos in Sudan mirrors previous conflicts in Africa, yet the implications of this one are uniquely alarming. The US special envoy for Sudan, Tom Perriello, has warned that the civil war could devolve into a multi-decade version of “Somalia on steroids,” potentially transforming Sudan into a permanent failed state. As the conflict continues to rage, the risk grows of a regional conflagration threatening to pull in neighboring countries such as Ethiopia, South Sudan, Chad, Libya, and the Central African Republic. The geopolitical fallout of this could be immense, with illicit flows of drugs, weapons, and fighters destabilizing an already volatile African continent. Al-Fashir, a heavily populated Sudanese Armed Forces stronghold in Darfur, exemplifies the potentially dire consequences of the conflict. As the Rapid Support Forces advance on the city, which is home to nearly 3 million people, aid groups fear widespread atrocities including gender-based violence, torture, and massacres. Across Sudan, civilians are caught in the crossfire and face relentless bloodshed and deprivation. Attempts to provide aid are thwarted by the combatants’ strategic embargoes. The situation is dire. The US State Department has confirmed that both sides have committed war crimes, with the Rapid Support Forces and its allied militias accused of engaging in forms of ethnic cleansing. Unfortunately, the responses by the international community to the crisis so far have been worse than inadequate, mostly diverted as they are by other global conflicts and rising tensions elsewhere. Despite US efforts to revive peace talks, success remains elusive and attempts so far have consistently failed to secure a lasting ceasefire.
This reflects the complex and entrenched nature of the conflict. The Biden administration’s policy on Africa has come under fire for unforced missteps. For example, misreading the civil war as merely a localized conflict while ignoring its potential for becoming an extraterritorial clash among rivals, which some experts believe has contributed to the unfolding crisis.
Beyond the fighting, the geographic and strategic significance of Sudan has drawn a multitude of other actors into the peace-making arena. Aside from the US and Saudi Arabia, neighboring countries, regional organizations and other global powers have all tried and are still trying to mediate.
The Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa, the League of Arab States, the African Union, and the UN are just a few of the entities involved. However, these peace efforts have allowed the warring factions to exploit the myriad initiatives to buy time, escalate the fighting, and worsen the civilian suffering.
The biggest hurdle remains the lack of differentiation between the well-intentioned efforts in search of peace, and the strategic gambles in pursuit of geopolitical advantages among rival powers. As a result, instead of a single coherent and inclusive peace process, what we have now is a muddled mess that makes any effort redundant at best and counterproductive at worst. The chaos in Sudan mirrors previous conflicts in Africa, yet the implications of this one are uniquely alarming. This uncoordinated flood of peace processes has allowed the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces to cherry-pick the initiatives with which they engage, based on whether or not they seek to prosecute the egregious acts committed by either faction, which range from blocking humanitarian aid to perpetrating war crimes. Despite repeated international warnings and sanctions, the hunger for military advantage continues to outweigh the desire for peace. Neither side is prepared to commit to any grand bargains in the interests of peace, or even a temporary ceasefire that freezes this brutal conflict and allows for more sophisticated diplomacy to take place while the guns grow cold. It cannot be overstated how rapidly the window of opportunity for influential actors to enforce a credible peace is closing.
In the absence of a credible, enforceable and widely accepted peace process, Sudan risks emulating Libya’s fragmented political future or becoming a perma-failed state akin to Somalia. If the past few years of UN mediation in Libya has taught the international community anything, it is that waiting for both sides to fight to a stalemate and then seeking bargains with the elite among this unelected and unaccountable lot will only create a new ruling class as disconnected from the public as the current belligerents. If Sudan is to find peace and keep it, therefore, the public must also have a significant and meaningful voice in any resolution. Failure to ensure this will only result in grave consequences that extend far beyond Sudan.
Recent history is rife with examples of how conflicts can easily spill over borders, as seen with how the turmoil in Libya has affected the Sahel region, and how the inconclusive war against Daesh has left splinters active and able to destabilize parts of West, Central, and Southern Africa. Sudan, with its population of about 50 million people, poses an even greater risk. The flow of refugees, fighters, and weapons could disrupt fragile states across Africa and beyond. Such instability would severely hamper efforts to counter extremism, with Sudan likely serving as a haven for terrorist groups — as was the case with Al-Qaeda during the 1990s. As the civil war in Sudan rages on, the grim reality is that each failed peace initiative not only prolongs the conflict but also deepens the suffering of millions of civilians. The world can no longer afford to turn a blind eye to this crisis, or allow self-interested actors to undermine concerted efforts to make peace and restore stability.
• Hafed Al-Ghwell is a senior fellow and executive director of the North Africa Initiative at the Foreign Policy Institute of the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies in Washington, DC. X: @HafedAlGhwell

It is not too late to build a principled and powerful EU
Ana Palacio/Arab News/August 10, 2024
Every year when European parliamentarians return from their summer break, the calls for a structural overhaul of the EU seem inevitable. This year will be no exception, though the impetus for change might be more powerful than ever.
The EU is facing numerous daunting, even existential, challenges. War rages on its doorstep, economic competitiveness lags, and deep social polarization persists. Political uncertainty in France and indecision in Germany compound the fragility of the EU at the same time as an unpredictable leadership transition in the US threatens to usher in a prolonged period of American isolationism, leaving Europe with little choice but to take its fate into its own hands.
The EU has managed to overcome severe disruptions in recent years, from sovereign debt crises to the withdrawal of the UK. But in the present geopolitical environment it is weak, vulnerable, and ill-prepared to handle the challenges it faces. A major reason for this is the enduring influence of populist forces that weaponize concerns about illegal migration and openly defy European unity.
For example, Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who has led Hungary’s government since 2010 (after previously holding the office between 1998 and 2002), has seemingly made it his mission to erode the rule of law in Hungary and across the EU, while undermining European cohesion.
Last month, his government assumed the rotating presidency of the Council of the EU. Within days, he paid surprise visits to Kyiv, Moscow and Beijing to discuss a potential Ukraine peace deal. It was a clear bid both to exploit the EU’s institutional apparatus and to undermine it strategically.
He also attended, again with no warning or coordination with the EU, the summit of the Organization of Turkic States, which includes as an “observer” the internationally unrecognized Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus.
EU leaders scrambled to clarify that Orban had no mandate to represent the EU externally, let alone to negotiate any kind of peace deal for Ukraine. To highlight the fact that Orban was acting out of turn, the EU’s foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, stripped Hungary of the right to host the next meeting of member states’ foreign and defense ministers, a responsibility that normally falls to the nation that holds the presidency of the Council of the EU.
Unfazed, Orban proceeded to announce a new fast-track visa system that would enable citizens of eight countries, including Russia and Belarus, to enter Hungary without security checks, raising fears about the integrity of border-free travel in the Schengen Area, and EU security more broadly.
Orban has also sought, with his counterpart in Slovakia, to use EU levers to force Ukraine to end its ban on the flow of Russian oil through the Druzhba pipeline, part of which runs through Hungarian territory.
Most recently, Hungary blocked a joint EU statement on “irregularities” during the presidential election in Venezuela, prompting Borrell to issue a separate statement.
EU leaders can attempt to carry out all the damage control they want, but Orban is achieving his goal of making the bloc appear confused, discordant, and weak. Having internalized key lessons from the Soviet era, he knows that empires and institutions begin to falter once they become objects of ridicule.
To regain its footing, the EU must act with greater urgency and resolve, even if that entails uncomfortable confrontations with member states.
This has contributed to the growing impression that in a world increasingly defined by geopolitical power plays and realpolitik, the moral authority of the EU and its commitment to values-based governance are quaint and ineffective relics of the past. A lack of visionary leadership and cohesion among key members have only compounded the problem.
Not only has the once-powerful Franco-German engine of European integration run out of steam, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s new mandate, which she secured by crafting an ambiguous platform that sought to appeal to a broad spectrum of interests, seems unlikely to bring profound change. Against this backdrop, forging a coherent vision on critical issues such as competitiveness, innovation, and defense will prove difficult, at best. Those who stand to gain the most from this situation are spoilers, such as Orban, who have learned how to exploit disunity and ambiguity.
During previous crises, from the Brexit negotiations following the withdrawal of the UK to the EU’s previous dealings with Hungary over Orban’s assaults on democracy and the rule of law, the bloc has relied largely on a legalistic and technocratic approach, which has often left it worse off.
But calls for the EU to start speaking the “language of power” have gone unheeded. And while proposals for strengthening Borrell’s mandate in his role as the EU’s high representative for foreign affairs and security policy have been advanced, they represent little more than cosmetic changes.
To regain its footing, the EU must act with greater urgency and resolve, even if that entails uncomfortable confrontations with member states. And to thrive in the world of today and tomorrow it must once again establish itself as an indispensable partner for the US.
This means strengthening its economy, not least through innovation. It also means heeding the advice of Robert Gates, a former US defense secretary, to engage more effectively with younger generations of Americans. In short, bolstering the image of the EU, which often is viewed more negatively than the images of individual member states, is essential. With US President Joe Biden now a lame duck after his decision to withdraw from the upcoming presidential election, Ukraine and Europe have entered a period of elevated vulnerability. Russia’s hybrid attacks could escalate in the coming months, posing a significant challenge for the EU, especially with Orban at the helm of the council.
If the US presidential election in November returns Donald Trump to the White House, pressure for a “negotiated peace” in Ukraine could intensify, further disrupting an already fragile geopolitical landscape.
The EU faces a stark choice. It can either continue to allow internal and external forces to weaken it or it can act boldly to reclaim its integrity and strengthen its influence. From encouraging innovation and bolstering the rule of law to establishing and implementing a shared foreign policy vision, the EU must demonstrate that it can be both principled and powerful. Otherwise, it risks being left behind.
• Ana Palacio, a former foreign minister of Spain and former senior vice president and general counsel of the World Bank Group, is a visiting lecturer at Georgetown University. ©Project Syndicate

Only a Credible Offensive Threat Can Deter Iran from Climbing the Escalation Ladder
Farzin Nadimi/washington institute for near east policy/August 10/2024
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2024/08/133163/
Amid a flurry of U.S. military deployments and allied diplomacy, it is uncertain if an embarrassed Tehran will attack Israel, but one thing is clear: allowing it to do so again without meaningful consequences would set a dangerous precedent.
The July 31 killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps guesthouse in Tehran was both a major humiliation and a severe security and intelligence setback for the Iranian regime. Officials immediately blamed the attack on Israel, claimed it was supported by the United States, and promised severe revenge against Israel using the combined capabilities of its “resistance front.” The question now is what form this revenge might take.
Iran and Israel have been in a state of war for more than four decades, with occasional periods of escalation and varying levels of proxy involvement. Their most recent escalation cycle unfolded in April, after an Israeli strike killed senior Iranian military officers in Damascus. Then as now, Tehran threatened a military response and was not deterred from carrying it out despite strong U.S. statements of support for Israel and highly visible military deployments. On April 13, Iran launched a barrage of drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles directly from its territory. Although the attack did not trigger a major Israeli response, the combination of potent Israeli, U.S., and allied defensive measures probably prevented a catastrophe. The region is now on the brink of a possible redux of unknown proportions, and efforts are once again being invested to prevent Iran from attacking—or, if it does attack, keeping its response at the lower end of the escalation ladder.
Iran’s Response Options
The list of potential tactics, intentions, and other variables that could shape Iran’s response is a long one:
Objectives and target sets: Humiliate and deter the enemy by destroying a specific set of key military or intelligence targets, a high-profile government building, or civilian infrastructure, in the process demonstrating the effects of its weapon systems and the depth of its intelligence on those targets.
Assets: Use specific types and combinations of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, suicide drones, decoys, terrorist incursions, and cyberattacks that offer better chances of success compared to the April 13 attack.
Timing and sequence: Choose the optimal time for the strike to maximize surprise and effectiveness while the enemy is closely watching, and to minimize the risk of uncontrollable escalation. This could entail one round of attacks or multiple rounds.
Rules of engagement and collateral damage: Aim to either cause or avoid casualties, maximize or minimize material damage, and strike or avoid civilian targets in accordance with set objectives. These objectives range from humiliating the enemy and maximizing deterrence to breaking the cycle of escalation, whether by projecting decisive power or limiting the response to “proportional” or “measured” actions that are deemed unworthy of retaliation.
Enemy defenses and response: Factor in the risks of an Israeli preemptive strike in various forms, and counter enemy defenses by using surprise, saturation fire, decoys, diversionary attacks, or attacks specifically targeting missile defenses.
Logistics: Either openly prepare for the strike with the intent of signaling adversaries (thereby losing the element of surprise), or maintain operational secrecy and use deeply buried assets capable of launching discreetly and reaching hypersonic speeds (in order to minimize warning time). Either option could involve coordinating with other members of the “axis of resistance” or acting alone.
Aftermath and escalation: Consider the broader implications of the strike, including political, social, and economic consequences, potential responses from Israel, and the risk of further escalation.
The cumulative effects of these variables will determine the success or failure of the strike—and whether it happens at all. Obviously, the best outcome for the United States would be if Iran decides that the risks of attacking Israel are unacceptably high. The April 13 attack was a mixed bag for Tehran, and by merely repeating that operation, it would risk facing a prepared enemy and losing any remnant of surprise. At the same time, another spectacular nighttime operation could still fulfill the regime’s desire to avenge Haniyeh’s death and boost morale within the “axis,” regardless of how many missiles actually reach their targets.
Potential Iranian Tactics in a Limited Strike
Iran will likely try to mitigate the shortcomings of the April 13 attack by seeking technological supremacy over Israeli defenses using a different mix of its more modern and reliable ballistic missile types such as the Sejjil, Khoramshahr-4, and Fattah. These systems are believed to have more survivable reentry vehicles/warheads—they are maneuverable and can use a solid rocket engine to accelerate to hypersonic speeds during the midcourse and terminal phases of their trajectories and evade Israeli and U.S. missile defenses.
During the April 13 attack, Iran stated that it did not use some of its most modern and capable ballistic missiles, probably expecting that the worst of the conflict was yet to come. By most estimates, half of the ballistic missiles it did use failed on the way to their targets. Iranian ballistic missiles are said to have a self-kill function that activates when they veer too far off course. Also, most of the Ghadr missiles used on April 13 seemingly carried barrage decoy warheads to saturate Israeli defenses so that other missiles with unitary warheads would have a better chance of getting through. Moreover, Iran claimed that the number of drones and cruise missiles it launched toward Israel was less than the number given by the coalition.
In a future attack, Iran may decide to relegate the drone and cruise portion of the operation entirely to its regional proxies while having its own forces focus on using some of their most capable ballistic missiles. Through this approach, Iran could aim to launch fewer projectiles (including decoys) and prove the effects-based operational concept it bragged about after its January 2020 missile strike against U.S. forces at al-Asad Air Base in Iraq—that is, achieving the same results or better with fewer assets.
Iran has a large number of underground missile bases within range of Israel that are capable of masking the preparation of their weapons. Combined with the hypersonic maneuvering capabilities of some of its missiles, the regime might aim to minimize Israel’s warning time to a few minutes by using these “doomsday” bases. In 2022, Iran claimed that its new Fattah missile could reach Israel in less than seven minutes.
On one hand, shorter warning times would put more strain on Israeli and U.S. defenses. On the other hand, by using its most secure bases and procedures and its latest-generation missiles, Iran might unwittingly give away locations and capabilities that may not have been discovered by foreign intelligence services.
As for outsourcing the drone and cruise missile part of the strike, Iran could maximize the element of surprise by having Hezbollah launch barrages of those weapons toward army bases, air bases, and air/missile defense sites in northern and central Israel. Hezbollah might also launch some of its Iranian-made precision-guided ballistic missiles at key targets in Israel in order to confuse and divide the country’s defenses.
In theory, Iran could even consider delegating the entire military retaliation to its axis partners and resorting to other tactics on its own (e.g., terrorism and cyberattacks). Yet doing so would jeopardize its credibility and deterrence.
U.S. Response
To deter Iran, the United States has moved a range of additional capabilities to the region:
An F-22 squadron
The USS Theodore Roosevelt Carrier Strike Group (CSG), repositioned from the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea
The USS Wasp Amphibious Ready Group, repositioned to the East Mediterranean near Israel, along with highly effective Navy destroyers capable of defending against ballistic missiles
The USS Abraham Lincoln CSG with a mixed air wing comprising F/A-18E/F, EA-18G, and F-35C jets, repositioned from the Pacific
A possible deployment of additional land-based air and missile defense systems
Having some of latest-generation Arleigh Burke-class destroyers in theater gives the United States added value in terms of mission flexibility and integration with outboard sensors, as well as the ability to employ the newest generation of antimissile interceptors. Similarly, the presence of fifth-generation fighters gives combatant commanders the ability to conduct all key airpower missions (air superiority, close air support, strategic attack, electronic warfare, reconnaissance, intelligence collection and distribution, and suppression and destruction of enemy air defenses) at the same time while contributing tremendously to understanding the overall threat picture.
To promote de-escalation, these measures have gone hand-in-hand with unprecedented diplomatic overtures and warnings delivered via parallel channels such as Switzerland, Jordan, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia. Taken together, these efforts show Iran that the United States will not desert its allies. Yet purely defensive measures did not deter Tehran from launching a major attack in April, so the United States needs to rethink its deterrence strategy. If one discounts Israel’s April 19 surgical missile strike that took out a key Iranian air defense radar, Tehran has effectively created a precedent for launching direct missile attacks against its enemies without facing deep consequences. Tehran needs to be unequivocally and credibly warned that any direct attacks against U.S. interests or allies will have serious—even existential—consequences for the regime.
While deploying defensive capabilities is undoubtedly important and contributes to deterring Iran, they cannot do the job alone. To back up its strong diplomatic messaging, Washington needs a credible niche offensive capability in the region.
One cutting-edge capability that the Pentagon can deploy to U.S. Central Command’s area of operations is the new Dark Eagle long-range hypersonic weapon system. This strategic surface-to-surface missile is fitted with a hypersonic glide body that can maneuver along a depressed trajectory to hit targets up to 3,000 kilometers away. The system has been successfully test-flown and is just now entering service. Deploying it to the region and inviting allied officers to see it would show Tehran that the United States is prepared to use its newest precision “prompt-strike” systems to deter and, if need be, impose costs on its adversaries. Despite its defiant rhetoric, the Iranian regime is very concerned about the vulnerability of its key centers of gravity and its hold on power. Therefore, it would likely back down in the face of a credible offensive threat.
**Farzin Nadimi is a senior fellow with The Washington Institute.

Clashes in Northern Syria: The Triumph of Interests Over the Language of "Brotherhood"?
Salahuddin Hawa/washington institute for near east policy/August 10/2024
With no prospects for a political solution to the Syrian crisis, the Turkish government's insistence on maintaining its previous policies in northern Syria and its usurpation of the Syrian people's decision-making warns of dire consequences for an already fragile relationship.
Soon after the outbreak of the Syrian civil war, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP) allowed over three million Syrians asylum within Turkey. Erdogan portrayed this decision as an expression of the Turkish people’s hospitality, empathy, and solidarity with their neighbors. Yet in the years since, refugees–particularly Syrian refugees–have been a focal point of Turkish media and politics, and the goodwill and charity extended to Syrian refugees in the past is now replaced with intense suspicion and vilification as Turkish citizens deal with rising inflation and other economic hardships.
Political parties from across the ideological spectrum now attempt to ratchet up anti-immigration rhetoric and endorse the departure and deportation of Syrians from Turkey. Consequently, these refugees have been placed under a microscope, and the misbehavior or criminal activity of individual Syrians is prime political fodder to paint all Syrians as a scourge to Turkish society. For Syrians in Turkey, Syria proper, and elsewhere, a series of inflammatory incidents have fueled anti-Turkish attitudes and threaten to disrupt President Erdogan’s recent attempts to normalize relations with the Assad regime in Damascus.
The events in the Turkish city of Kayseri were the latest episode in a terrible series of events based on falsifying information to commit acts of violence against Syrian refugees. On the evening of Sunday, May 30, a Turkish citizen posted a video claiming that a young Syrian man harassed a Turkish girl. Hundreds of Turkish youths responded by smashing and burning Syrian-owned shops and cars. For days on end, Syrians barred themselves inside their homes, only leaving to buy essential supplies. After hours of chaos and violence, the police arrived, and their director announced to the Turkish youths that they could return home as the girl was not Turkish, as reported by Syrian TV on July 1.
Across the border in areas controlled by the Syrian National Army (SNA)–backed by Turkey–videos of these incidents spread like wildfire. For Syrians still in Syria, scenes of violence against Syrian refugees are not new. However, the scale of harassment and destruction sparked an unprecedented outburst of anger. As the violence in Kayseri spread on social media, groups of Syrians took to the streets on Monday afternoon, July 1 to express their frustration. The demonstrations quickly escalated from merely blocking Turkish trucks to attacking some drivers and employees, smashing their vehicles, and shouting anti-Turkish slogans. The peak of these events came with the death and injury of several people in attacks on the Turkish governor's offices in Afrin and Jarabulus, and large groups of demonstrators heading to the Turkish side of the Bab al-Salam border crossing with Turkey, where Turkish flags were sometimes removed or burned.
Notably, no faction of the SNA or the Turkish-backed civilian or military police intervened to suppress the demonstrators or prevent them from reaching Turkish sites in the fiercest confrontation to date between the Syrian people and Turkish forces in Syria. The violence subsided by evening, accompanied by a complete internet blackout after the demonstrators seemed to feel they had achieved their goal of sending a clear message to Turkey that it should reconsider its policy towards Syrians, whether refugees in Turkey or those in northern Syria.
Many observers tend to believe that the primary motive behind the events in northern Syria goes beyond responding to the Kayseri incidents and protests against the official Turkish stance. They point to similar incidents in various Turkish cities that did not elicit the same reaction from Syrians in the liberated north. The past week alone saw several similar events, each of which could have caused the same level of tension and even confrontation. For example, a large number of demonstrators gathered at the Abu al-Zendin crossing between the liberated areas and Assad regime-controlled areas in the Syrian city of al-Bab following reports that Turkish forces intended to bring Russian officers into the liberated areas through this crossing. The demonstrators then inspected Turkish vehicles to ensure no Russian officers were inside.
These reports were confirmed when the local council in al-Bab, appointed by Turkey, announced that the crossing would officially open in the coming days for commercial movement in both directions under the pretext of supplying the city with water from regime areas. Shocked, demonstrators protested this decision, with some storming the crossing and smashing parts of it. Tensions were further heightened by unprecedented Turkish official statements about the possibility of restoring official relations with the Assad regime, considering that the Turkish and Syrian regimes are "one family," as President Erdogan said, quoted by the Turkish newspaper Zaman on July 16. Just hours after the Abu al-Zendin crossing incidents, Syrian activists in the Turkish city of Gaziantep––home to many Syrian refugees–reported that Turkish security forces raided and arrested dozens of unregistered Syrians, seemingly in response to Syrians' rejection of opening the Abu al-Zendin crossing. These dramatic events left a bad impression among Syrians in the north, with longstanding feelings of abandonment turning into a new sense of betrayal by Turkey.
For their part, Turkish authorities blamed Turkish nationalists for attacks on Syrian refugees Turkish authorities cited road camera footage showing a truck carrying dozens of those who participated in the attacks on Syrian refugees in Kayseri. After arresting many of them, it was revealed that 468 had criminal records, according to Turkish Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya. Erdogan emphasized that the Kayseri events and their aftermath were part of the "poisonous opposition discourse" and conspiracies by unnamed entities targeting Turkish-Syrian brotherhood and destabilizing Turkey.
Notably, opposition parties to the ruling AKP have made the Syrian refugee issue and their repatriation—through understandings with the Assad regime—a priority in their election campaigns over the past two years, prompting the Turkish president to announce a housing project in northern Syria to repatriate one million refugees. All of this has given the impression that the Syrian refugee issue has become a public opinion matter in Turkey.
While Turkish authorities are pointing the finger at unruly mobs and opposition parties, many Syrian entities and elites (such as the Syrian Trade Union Federation and some newly formed parties) considered the recent riots in northern Syria a result of "accumulations" related to Turkey's handling of the Syrian file. In their view, the shortcomings of Turkish government in northern Syria has steadily increased resentment among the local population, and the videos from Kayseri were merely the boiling point.
The Turkish government's management of northern Syria in all fields has played a fundamental role in developing negative feelings among Syrians towards Turkey. Many Syrians hold the Turkish government responsible for the deteriorating economic situation in northern Syria, with salaries for employees, SNA members, and teachers being less than $100 per month, for example. Additionally, United Nations and NGO programs have seen significant reductions in projects, staff, and aid provided to hundreds of thousands of internally displaced families. Additionally, the exclusive use of PTT (Turkey’s national post directorate) for distributing Syrian employees' salaries in major northern cities has caused severe congestion due to the limited number of PTT staff. The PTT centers in Azaz and Afrin (the largest cities in northern Syria, each with about half a million people) have only two Turkish employees each distributing salaries.
The Turkish government has not responded to repeated calls to solve the PTT issue, which has become a near-daily source of tension. Furthermore, many details about the Turkish government's negative performance in agriculture, trade, industry, and education have all contributed to the growing negative sentiment towards Turkey among the people of northern Syria recently.
In any case, many Syrian entities and elites see Turkey's insertion into the governance of northern Syria as a major cause of resentment against the Turkish government. With Turkey's direct military intervention in northern Syria starting in late 2016 to help defeat ISIS, its ability to turn back Assad regime forces backed by Russia and Iran, and campaigns to end the control of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in various areas, Turkey became the strongest and perhaps the sole player in northern and northwestern Syria. Turkey gradually began intervening in the formation of Syrian opposition institutions, starting with the coalition, then the Syrian interim government, and finally the local councils in northern Syrian cities and towns. As a result, any decision by these entities no longer reflects the will and interests of Syrians but rather the interests of the Turkish government.
Later, Turkey began directly appointing council heads, seemingly based on loyalty to Turkey, regardless of the heads' and council members' capabilities, qualifications, or social acceptance, or what they could offer to alleviate the hardships of war and displacement. This control reached the point of imposing some council heads by force. Turkey's near-total control over the coalition and government has paralyzed an organic and open furthering of revolution. This control was a first step towards Turkey's involvement as a guarantor of the Syrian opposition in Astana negotiations with Russia and Iran, leading to understandings that later redrew the lines of engagement and ceasefires between regime and opposition forces, resulting in the displacement of hundreds of thousands of Syrian civilians from their cities in preparation for regime and allies' control. Therefore, Syrians' sense of shock and betrayal was as great as their expectations and hopes built on the Turkish guarantor position.
Even weeks after the dust has settled in Kayseri and in northern Syria, it is still unclear whether the Turkish government will reform its approach or try to maintain the status quo. Immediately following the riots in northern Syria, Turkish officials met with SNA factions to discuss a path forward, emphasizing the need to ensure Turkish control in the region. On the other hand, Al Jazeera reported on July 5 that President Erdogan might invite Bashar al-Assad to a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. While some observers interpret this move by the Turkish leadership as a political tactic within a complex game that fits the geopolitical reality, large segments of the Syrian people see it as a betrayal of their rights and a commodification of their sacrifices fighting the Assad regime.
With no prospects for a political solution to the Syrian crisis, the Turkish government's insistence on maintaining its previous policies in northern Syria and its usurpation of the Syrian people's decision-making warns of dire consequences for an already fragile relationship. One warning sign appears in the recent article of defector Colonel Abdul Jabbar al-Aqidi in an article where he argues that the Syrian people, who sacrificed hundreds of thousands in their revolution for freedom, appear ready to sacrifice for their dignity and other things in response to the events in northern Syria. Any new racist attacks on Syrian refugees remain a ticking time bomb that could cause things to spiral out of control at any moment.
https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/clashes-northern-syria-triumph-interests-over-language-brotherhood