English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For August 10/2024
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

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Bible Quotations For today
Strive to enter through the narrow door; for many, I tell you, will try to enter and will not be able
Saint Luke 13/22-30/:"Jesus went through one town and village after another, teaching as he made his way to Jerusalem. Someone asked him, ‘Lord, will only a few be saved?’ He said to them, ‘Strive to enter through the narrow door; for many, I tell you, will try to enter and will not be able. When once the owner of the house has got up and shut the door, and you begin to stand outside and to knock at the door, saying, "Lord, open to us", then in reply he will say to you, "I do not know where you come from." Then you will begin to say, "We ate and drank with you, and you taught in our streets."But he will say, "I do not know where you come from; go away from me, all you evildoers!" There will be weeping and gnashing of teeth when you see Abraham and Isaac and Jacob and all the prophets in the kingdom of God, and you yourselves thrown out. Then people will come from east and west, from north and south, and will eat in the kingdom of God. Indeed, some are last who will be first, and some are first who will be last.’"

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on August 09-10/2024
Israeli strike kills senior Hamas figure in south Lebanon
Hezbollah retaliates after drone strike kills two in Naqoura
MP says Hezbollah to take Lebanese interest into account in response against Israel
Israel vows to fight 'aggression' from Hezbollah 'with all its might'
Missile lands in Lebanon during Israeli strike on Syria
Man wounded in Hezbollah drone attack on Nahariya has died
Lebanon supports US-Egypt-Qatar call for truce talks on Aug. 15
Lebanon Would Struggle to Cover 'Fraction' of Aid Needs in War With Israel, Minister Says
Mikati Discusses UNIFIL Extension with Bou Habib
Hezbollah Wary of Bassil’s Actions
Ayoub Clarifies Speech Amid ‘Misleading Campaign’ Against Her
The threat Israel didn't foresee: Hezbollah's growing drone power
Arabists & the Arabic Civilization/Edmond El Chidiac/February 22/2023
The Story of the Next Lebanon War Starts Now/Mark Dubowitz and David Daoud/National Security Journal/August 08/2024
Understanding Nasrallah’s speech: How will Hezbollah avenge Shukr?/David Daoud/Atlantic Council/August 09/ 2024

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on August 09-10/2024
Israel agrees to resume Gaza truce talks next week
US releases $3.5 billion to Israel to spend on US weapons and military equipment, months after Congress appropriated
US tells Israel that escalations in Middle East serve no one
Mediators urge Israel and Hamas to accept ‘final’ proposal on ceasefire deal as threat of Iran attack looms
Families flee new Israeli assault in Gaza's Khan Younis
US says no sanctions against Israeli military unit in death of Palestinian-American
Quds Force Chief Says Iran Will Avenge Killing of Hamas Leader
Iran leader’s order to ‘harshly punish’ Israel will be carried out, Guards deputy chief says
Iranian Guards navy has new highly explosive missiles, state media say
Pakistan says it will support all efforts to prevent Middle East escalation
UN rights office decries 'alarmingly high' number of executions in Iran: 29 over two days this week
Three suspected Houthi attacks target a ship off Yemen, authorities say
US to lift ban on offensive weapons sales to Saudi Arabia, sources say
Exclusive-Iran to deliver hundreds of ballistic missiles to Russia soon, intel sources say
Passenger plane crash in Brazil kills all 61 on board

Titles For The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources on August 09-10/2024
Question: “Are all sins equal to God?”/GotQuestions.org/August 09/2024
'Just in Time' Defense Modernization: Will the United States Miss the Boat?/Peter Huessy and Stephen Blank/Gatestone Institute/August 09/2024
The Olympic ‘Trans’ Ceremony Exposed More than Hatred for Christianity/Raymond Ibrahim/The Stream/August 09/2024
US ‘dual citizenship’ creates double standards. It should end/Ray Hanania/Arab News/August 09, 2024
Iran-Israel Conflict: The War between the Two Regional Powers/Abdulrahman Al-Rashed/Asharq Al-Awsat/August 09/2024
Iran: A Grin and Bear it Game?/Amir Taheri/Asharq Al-Awsat/August 09/2024
Four Scenarios for The Day After in Gaza/Dr. Nassif Hitti/Asharq Al-Awsat/August 09/2024

Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on August 09-10/2024
Israeli strike kills senior Hamas figure in south Lebanon
NAJIA HOUSSARI/Arab News/August 09, 2024
BEIRUT: Fears of a major escalation in southern Lebanon grew on Friday as separate Israeli attacks killed two Hezbollah and two Hamas members. One of the Hamas members was Samer Al-Hajj, the group’s security official in the Ain Al-Hilweh Palestinian refugee camp, who was killed when the car he was in was hit by a missile launched from an Israeli drone. The incident occurred in Sidon, 44 kilometers from Beirut, and was the first time the town has been targeted. Two Hezbollah members were killed in an earlier attack on Naquora. Hostilities continued on Friday as the Lebanese government — in which Hezbollah is also represented — welcomed a joint statement from the leaders of Egypt, Qatar and the US. The statement emphasized “the need to put an immediate end to the suffering of the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, reach a ceasefire, and conclude an agreement to release hostages and detainees.”
FASTFACT
The fear of the conflict expanding in the Middle East has led more airlines to suspend their flights to Lebanon. It also called on the two parties to the conflict “to resume urgent discussions to overcome the remaining obstacles to reaching the desired agreement.”Lebanon’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that “what the trilateral statement included embodies Lebanon’s vision to diffuse tension in the region and avoid an all-out regional war according to a basic first step, which is the immediate ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and the implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 2735, which is based on the initiative of US President Joe Biden.”It stressed “the need to exert maximum pressure on Israel to oblige it to sit at the negotiating table and implement UN Security Council Resolution 2735 without delay.” The Lebanese statement came as the Israeli Broadcasting Authority announced that “residents of the towns on the border with Lebanon are required to remain near safe areas until further notice.” Also on Friday, Israeli drones were seen flying over border villages, including Yahoun, Kounine and Bint Jbeil, using loudspeakers to broadcast provocative messages in Arabic against Hezbollah and its Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, prompting armed people to respond by firing machine guns at them. The government in Cyprus declared “its readiness to help evacuate European civilians from Lebanon.” The US Embassy in Beirut reiterated in a statement on Friday that it “encourages those who wish to depart Lebanon to book any ticket available to them, even if that flight does not depart immediately or does not follow their first-choice route.” It recommended that “US citizens who choose not to depart Lebanon prepare contingency plans for emergencies and be prepared to shelter in place for an extended period.”
The fear of the conflict expanding in the Middle East has led more airlines to suspend their flights to Lebanon, including Air Algerie and Air India.
Royal Jordanian resumed flights to Beirut after having suspended them since July 29. Britain advised airlines in the UK “not to enter Lebanese airspace from Aug. 8 until Nov. 4,” citing “a potential risk to aviation from military activity.”
On the first day of the 11th month of ongoing hostilities, more Israeli assassinations of Hezbollah field cadres were reported after further Israeli breaches of Lebanese airspace, as well as its ability to infiltrate landline and cell calls and the internet network. Hezbollah announced the death of Mehdi Mahmoud Ksaibani, 30, from Harouf, and Hadi Jihad Deeb, 27, from Bafliyeh, southern Lebanon, who died in an Israeli raid on Naqoura on Friday morning. Israel on Thursday night and Friday morning targeted Aita Al-Shaab and a house in Hanaouay. The house was empty, but five civilians in nearby houses were injured, according to the Ministry of Health. Israeli army spokesperson Avichay Adraee said that Israel’s target was “Hezbollah’s command headquarters in Hanaouay and infrastructure in Aita Al-Shaab.”A Lebanese security source said Hezbollah responded with a series of attacks that were limited to “Israeli military, strategic and logistical bases, in response to specific Israeli attacks, while avoiding civilian targets. Israel’s Army Radio reported “several attacks on the (Kiryat Shmona) settlement,” adding that “the last salvo included 10 rockets launched from Lebanon toward the settlement.”Israeli media outlets said that five explosions were heard and that a missile landed in Kiryat Shmona. Hezbollah said that it bombed “the command headquarters of the 769th Brigade in the Kiryat Shmona barracks with a salvo of Katyusha rockets, in response to Israel’s attacks on Hanaouay.” It also targeted a “gathering of Israeli soldiers in the vicinity of Metula with missile weapons.”In response to the attack on Naqoura, Hezbollah launched a squadron of precision drones on the command headquarters of the coastal battalion belonging to the newly established Western Brigade in Liman, “targeting the positions and concentrations of its officers and soldiers.”The group said that “it hit its targets accurately and inflicted confirmed casualties.”Hezbollah attacked the “Al-Sammaqa site in the occupied Lebanese Kfarchouba Hills with rocket weapons” and “a building used by soldiers in the Manara settlement.”Israeli airstrikes hit the town of Tallouseh in the Marjeyoun district, coinciding with artillery shelling on the city.

Hezbollah retaliates after drone strike kills two in Naqoura
Naharnet/August 09/2024
Two people were killed on Friday morning in an Israeli drone strike on the coastal border town of al-Naqoura in south Lebanon, with Hezbollah announcing the death of two of its fighters "on the road to Jerusalem".Later during the day, Israeli warplanes raided a forest between Kfarkela and Deir Mimas. The region was also targeted by artillery shells.Israeli artillery also shelled the southern border town of al-Khiam. Hezbollah, for its part, targeted a post in the occupied Kfarshuba Hills, and soldiers in Metula and Menara in north Israel. The group said it fired a volley of Katyusha rockets at a military command center in Kiryat Shmona in retaliation to an overnight strike on the southern town of Hanaway in the Tyre district that lightly injured five people. Hezbollah also targeted a command center and buildings used by soldiers in Kiryat Shmona "with Falaq rockets" and other weapons and a military base in Liman "with an array of suicide drones" in response to the attacks on Hanaway and Naqoura. On Thursday, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said that Israel would fight Hezbollah "with all its might" if the Lebanese armed group continued its "aggression" across the border. Hezbollah has traded near-daily fire with Israeli forces in support of ally Hamas since the Palestinian militant group's October 7 attack on Israel triggered war in Gaza. Fears of all-out war have mounted after Israel killed Hezbollah's top military commander Fouad Shukur in an air strike in a Beirut suburb last week.

MP says Hezbollah to take Lebanese interest into account in response against Israel
Naharnet/August 09/2024
A Hezbollah lawmaker has said that his group will take the Lebanese interest into consideration in any response against Israel over its assassination of Hezbollah military chief Fouad Shukur. Addressing Hezbollah supporters, MP Ali Fayyad said: “We call on you to have confidence in God Almighty’s will and in the wisdom of the resistance that it managing this battle.”He added that the group takes into account “the Lebanese special situations, the higher national interests and the interests of our people and society.”“At a time we are insisting not to allow any breach of rules by the enemy to go unpunished, no matter the consequences, we are also acting under the ceiling of the interests of our people and country,” Fayyad went on to say.

Israel vows to fight 'aggression' from Hezbollah 'with all its might'
Agence France Presse/August 09/2024
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has said that Israel would fight Hezbollah "with all its might" if the Lebanese armed group continued its "aggression" across the border.
"We will not allow the Hezbollah militia to destabilize the border and the region. If Hezbollah continues its aggression, Israel will fight it, with all its might," Gallant said in a message Thursday addressed to the people of Lebanon, according to a statement from his office. Hezbollah has traded near-daily fire with Israeli forces in support of ally Hamas since the Palestinian militant group's October 7 attack on Israel triggered war in Gaza. Fears of all-out war have mounted after Israel killed Hezbollah's top military commander Fouad Shukur in an air strike in a Beirut suburb last week.
Reminding the people of Lebanon of the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah, Gallant warned Lebanon to "learn the lesson of the past so as not to fall into a dangerous scenario in August 2024".The devastating 34-day war in July-August 2006 killed more than 1,200 people in Lebanon, mostly civilians, and some 160 Israelis, mostly soldiers.

Missile lands in Lebanon during Israeli strike on Syria
Naharnet/August 09/2024
A Syrian interception missile landed overnight in the forests of the Zgharta town of Miryata during an Israeli airstrike on the Shuairat airport in central Syria, media reports said.The missile hit the area without exploding, the reports said.
Four Syrian army soldiers were injured in the Israeli airstrike, Syrian state media reported. Syrian state news agency SANA, citing an unnamed military source, said strikes targeted “a number of military points in the central region.”The UK-based war monitor Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported explosions near a military airport in the countryside of Homs province that were “likely caused by an Israeli targeting of weapons storage warehouses.”There was no immediate statement from Israel, which frequently targets the sites of the Syrian army and Iran-backed groups in Syria but rarely announces the strikes.

Man wounded in Hezbollah drone attack on Nahariya has died
Naharnet/August 09/2024
Mikhail Samara, 27, who was critically injured by a malfunctioning Israeli Iron Dome interceptor missile on Tuesday amid a Hezbollah drone attack on the Western Galilee, has succumbed to his wounds, Israeli hospital officials said on Friday.
Samara, originally from Kafr Yasif and a student in the Czech Republic, had arrived in Israel recently to visit his family.Amid the attack on Tuesday, an Iron Dome interceptor missile missed one of Hezbollah's explosive-laden drones and hit a highway near Nahariya. Samara was critically injured by shrapnel from the interceptor impact and taken to the Galilee Medical Center in Nahariya for treatment. Earlier Friday, he died of his wounds, the hospital said. Another 19 Israelis were wounded amid the attack, mostly with minor injuries, including six soldiers, when one of the drones impacted a nearby army base.

Lebanon supports US-Egypt-Qatar call for truce talks on Aug. 15
AP/August 09/2024
Caretaker Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib said Friday, after he met with caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati, that the Lebanese government supports a joint statement by the United States, Egypt and Qatar, calling on Israel and Hamas to return to the negotiating table. The foreign powers involved in brokering a possible cease-fire aimed at halting the fighting in Gaza and releasing Israeli hostages have jointly appealed to Israel and Hamas to return to the negotiating table next week. The statement issued Thursday by the U.S., Egypt and Qatar, the three mediators in the monthslong Israel-Hamas war, called on the parties to resume stalled cease-fire talks on Aug. 15 in either Qatar’s capital of Doha or Egypt’s capital of Cairo. “There is no further time to waste nor excuses from any party for further delay,” it said, adding that the negotiators have already finalized a “framework” for the deal. All that’s left to hammer out, it said, are the details of implementation. The statement, signed by U.S. President Joe Biden, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi and Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, said the mediators were prepared to present a final compromise "that resolves the remaining implementation issues in a manner that meets the expectations of all parties." It did not elaborate on what that would look like. "There is no time for further delay," Bou Habib said, adding that the Lebanese government urges all parties to end the war and release the hostages as soon as possible. "It is time for calm to return to the region," he added. There has been a flurry of diplomacy in recent days after the assassination of Hamas’ political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, prompted fears of a wider regional war. Hamas this week announced that Yahya Sinwar, one of the architects of the Oct. 7 attack on Israel, would replace Haniyeh as the leader of Hamas’ political wing. Haniyeh previously served as the key interlocutor in the indirect cease-fire talks with Israel. U.S. diplomats said the negotiations had been approaching a breakthrough just before Israel’s assassination of a top Hezbollah commander in Beirut and the killing of Haniyeh in Tehran brought vows of retaliation from Hezbollah and Iran and left the Middle East on edge. Israel confirmed that it will send negotiators to resume the indirect cease-fire talks with Hamas next week. The office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said late Thursday that the government would heed the call by foreign mediators to revive negotiations aimed at halting the fighting in Gaza and bringing home Israeli hostages still captive in the enclave.

Lebanon Would Struggle to Cover 'Fraction' of Aid Needs in War With Israel, Minister Says
Asharq Al-Awsat/August 09/2024
Lebanon would struggle to meet even a fraction of its aid needs if full-scale war with Israel erupts, a senior official said, as it seeks increased donor support amid persistent border clashes. Nasser Yassin, the minister overseeing contingency planning for a wider conflict, told Reuters Lebanon would need $100 million monthly for food, shelter, healthcare and other needs in a worst-case scenario. "A small fraction, even 10 to 15 percent of that, would be huge for the government. We will need donors to step up," Yassin said. International aid is already falling short. Lebanon has received only a third of the $74 million sought over the course of the 10-month conflict between Iran-backed Hezbollah and Israel. "Humanitarian funding in many places has been reduced to a minimal level of just keeping heads above water. Some organizations are even slashing funding for critical life-saving matters," Yassin added. Lebanon's state, hollowed out by a five-year economic crisis left to fester by ruling elites, struggled to provide basic services even before the current conflict began alongside the Gaza war. Nearly 100,000 Lebanese, mainly from the south, have been displaced, as well as more than 60,000 Israelis, according to official figures. While Israel houses its displaced in government-funded accommodation, Lebanon relies on ill-equipped public schools or informal arrangements such as staying with family or friends. An Aug. 7 government document seen by Reuters outlines two scenarios other than the conflict remaining at its current levels. A "controlled conflict" displacing 250,000 people, requiring $50 million in monthly funding for three months. An "uncontrolled conflict" displacing 1 million or more, needing $100 million monthly for three months. The document emphasizes the urgent need for additional resources, noting current stocks and shelter capacity are "far from adequate". "Additional resources are urgently needed to respond to ongoing needs and to prepare and respond to increasing needs in event of escalation," it says. Yassin said Lebanon's food supply would last four to five months under an Israeli blockade similar to the 2006 war. However, diesel supplies would last only about five weeks - a concern given the country's reliance on generators to power everything from hospitals and bakeries to the internet due to limited availability of state electricity.

Mikati Discusses UNIFIL Extension with Bou Habib
This is Beirut/August 09/2024
Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati discussed on Friday with Caretaker Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib the extension of the UNIFIL mandate and was briefed on the results of Bou Habib’s visit to Egypt, as well as a message from Lebanon to ambassadors. The meeting took place this morning at the Grand Serail. After the meeting, Bou Habib said that the results of his visit to Egypt was its unconditional support for Lebanon and the need to end the war in Lebanon, a matter tied to the conflict in Gaza, of course. “However, our primary concern is peace in Lebanon. We also discussed the extension of UNIFIL’s mandate after receiving the first draft, which we agreed on with minor modifications. We hope the extension will be finalized this month, securing another year for UNIFIL,” he added.
Bou Habib pointed out that they will also send a message to ambassadors outlining the state’s basic principles concerning foreign policy, particularly regarding the ongoing situation in Gaza and southern Lebanon.
“As you know, there is a US-Egyptian-Qatari initiative to hold a meeting on the 15th of this month to discuss a ceasefire in Gaza,” he said. He stated, as a result of his meeting with the prime minister, that “the Lebanese government supports the joint statement issued by US President Joe Biden, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, and the Emir of Qatar Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani,” adding that “it is essential to provide immediate relief to the Palestinian people in Gaza and to the hostages and their families who have endured immense suffering.” Bou Habib praised the efforts of the three leaders to establish a ‘framework agreement’ and emphasized Lebanon’s support for a ceasefire and the release of hostages as outlined by President Biden and UN Security Council Resolution 2735. He stressed that delays are unacceptable, urging swift action to implement the agreement. Lebanon also plans to support a new initiative to complete the remaining provisions in a way that satisfies all parties involved.“The Lebanese government joins the call to resume urgent discussions on Thursday, August 15, in Doha or Cairo to finalize the agreement and begin its immediate implementation,” he said.

Hezbollah Wary of Bassil’s Actions
This is Beirut/August 09/2024
Political circles close to Hezbollah have reportedly revealed the “reproaches” of Hassan Nasrallah, the group’s Secretary General, with regard to the recent steps taken by Gebran Bassil, leader of the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM). “Reducing the number of MPs in the bloc on the eve of the presidential election would weaken the FPM’s position,” the same source explained, elucidating Hezbollah’s reaction. Against a backdrop of tensions within the FPM, several veteran and founding members have been expelled by the party leadership or have anticipated this decision by announcing their departure. The latest on the list are MPs Alain Aoun and Simon Abi Ramia. In this context, Bassil’s position was to let go “anyone who does not wish to abide by the rules” of the FPM. According to the same sources, Bassil made attempts to renew ties with Hezbollah, requesting a meeting with Nasrallah in order to “discuss the establishment of new bases for a new alliance.” This new “turn” is said to have displeased the pro-Iranian group, particularly after the FPM lost several MPs from its parliamentary bloc.

Ayoub Clarifies Speech Amid ‘Misleading Campaign’ Against Her
This is Beirut/August 09/2024
Member of the ‘Strong Republic’ bloc, MP Ghada Ayoub, stated on Friday that the video that circulated of her speech was not leaked; it has been posted on her X account for four days and on the Lebanese Forces Facebook page in Jezzine. She added that the said event “took place on Saturday, July 26, the anniversary of Dr. Geagea’s (Lebanese Forces leader) release from prison.”In recent days, Ayoub explained that a “misleading campaign has emerged against the speech I delivered at the celebratory dinner on July 26, 2024. In it, I mentioned that we have been in a continuous struggle for over 1,400 years, a fact known to many but perhaps forgotten by some. My words were distorted, and the ongoing struggle was misunderstood, losing the emotional and spiritual meaning I intended, which was to recall the Feast of the Martyrs of the Maronite Church or the Martyrs of Saint Maron,” adding, “This continuous struggle is against persecution, from any source, and against injustice and oppressors, regardless of who they may be. Persecution and injustice know no religion, sect, color, or race.”In an interview with the local TV station Al-Jadeed this Friday, Ayoub clarified that “my speech in the video was during a dinner event in Jounieh, and it was impromptu. I mentioned the 1,400 years to highlight the long struggle of Bkerke, the Maronite Patriarchate, leading to the establishment of Greater Lebanon.”

The threat Israel didn't foresee: Hezbollah's growing drone power
Bassem Mroue/BEIRUT (AP)/August 09, 2024
Lebanon’s militant Hezbollah group launched one of its deepest strikes into Israel in mid-May, using an explosive drone that scored a direct hit on one of Israel’s most significant air force surveillance systems.
This and other successful drone attacks have given the Iranian-backed militant group another deadly option for an expected retaliation against Israel for its airstrike in Beirut last month that killed top Hezbollah military commander Fouad Shukur.
“It is a threat that has to be taken seriously,” Fabian Hinz, a research fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said of Hezbollah's drone capability.
While Israel has built air defense systems, including the Iron Dome and David’s Sling to guard against Hezbollah's rocket and missile arsenal, there has been less focus on the drone threat. “And as a result there has been less effort to build defensive capabilities” against drones, Hinz said.
Drones, or UAVS, are unmanned aircraft that can be operated from afar. Drones can enter, surveil and attack enemy territory more discreetly than missiles and rockets. Hezbollah proclaimed the success of its May drone strike, which targeted a blimp used as part of Israel's missile defense system at a base about 35 kilometers (22 miles) from the Lebanon border. The militants released footage showing what they said was their explosive Ababil drone flying toward the Sky Dew blimp, and later released photographs of the downed aircraft.
Israel’s military confirmed Hezbollah scored a direct hit. “This attack reflects an improvement in accuracy and the ability to evade Israeli air defenses,” said a report released by the Institute for National Security Studies, an independent think tank affiliated with Tel Aviv University. Since the near daily exchange of fire along the Lebanon-Israel border began in early October, Hezbollah has used drones more to bypass Israeli air defense systems and strike its military posts along the border, as well as deep inside Israel.
While Israel has intercepted hundreds of drones from Lebanon during the Israel-Hamas war, its air defense systems are not hermetic, an Israeli security official said. Drones are smaller and slower than missiles and rockets, therefore harder to stop. That's especially true when they are launched from close to the border and require a shorter reaction time to intercept. The official, who was not authorized to speak publicly in line with Israeli security restrictions, said Israeli air defense systems have had to contend with more drones during this war than ever before, and Israel responded by attacking launch points. On Tuesday, a Hezbollah drone attack on an Israeli army base near the northern city of Nahariya wounded six people. One of the group’s bloodiest drone attacks was in April, killing one Israeli soldier and wounding 13 others plus four civilians in the northern Israeli community of Arab al-Aramsheh.
Hezbollah also sent surveillance drones that filmed vital facilities in Israel’s north, including in Haifa, its suburbs and the Ramat David Airbase, southeast of the coastal city. While Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has boasted the militant group can now manufacture its own drones, its attacks so far have mainly relied on Iranian-made Ababil and Shahed drones. It has also used a drone, at least once, that fires Russian-made S5 guided missiles. Hezbollah’s increasing capabilities have come despite Israel killing some of its most important drone experts. The most high-profile was Shukur, who Israel said was responsible for most of Hezbollah’s most advanced weaponry, including missiles, long-range rockets and drones.
In 2013, a senior Hezbollah operative, Hassan Lakkis, considered one of its drone masterminds, was shot dead south of Beirut. The group blamed Israel. More recent strikes in Syria attributed to Israel killed Iranian and Hezbollah drone experts, including an official with the Iranian paramilitary Revolutionary Guard’s aerospace division. In its early days, Hezbollah used lower-tech tactics, including paragliders, to attack behind enemy lines. After Israel withdrew from southern Lebanon in 2000 after an 18-year occupation, Hezbollah began using Iranian-made drones and sent the first reconnaissance Mirsad drone over Israel’s airspace in 2004.
After the 34-day Israel-Hezbollah war in 2006, Lakkis, the Hezbollah drone mastermind, took charge of the drone program. Hezbollah increased its use of drones in reconnaissance and attacks during its involvement in Syria’s conflict. In 2022, as Lebanon engaged in indirect negotiations to demarcate its maritime border with Israel, the group sent three drones over one of Israel’s biggest gas facilities in the Mediterranean before they were shot down by Israel.
Hezbollah's drone program still receives substantial assistance from Iran, and the UAVs are believed to be assembled by experts of the militant group in Lebanon.
“Since Iran has not been able to achieve aerial supremacy, it has resorted to such types of aircraft,” said retired Lebanon general and military expert Naji Malaaeb referring to drones. He added that Russia has benefited from buying hundreds of Iranian Shahed drones to use in its war against Ukraine.
In February, the Ukrainian intelligence service said that Iranian and Hezbollah experts were training Russian troops to operate Shahed-136 and Ababil-3 drones at an air base in central Syria. Russia, Iran and Hezbollah have a military presence in Syria, where they have been fighting alongside Syrian President Bashar Assad’s forces.
In a 2022 speech, Nasrallah boasted that “we in Lebanon, and since a long time, have started producing drones.”The Lebanese militant group still apparently relies on parts from Western countries, which could pose an obstacle to mass production.
In mid-July, three people were arrested in Spain and one in Germany on suspicion of belonging to a network that supplied Hezbollah with parts to build explosive drones for use in attacks in northern Israel.
The Spanish companies implicated, like others in Europe and around the world, purchased items, including electronic guidance components, propulsion propellers, gasoline engines, more than 200 electric motors and materials for the fuselage, wings and other drone parts, according to investigators. Authorities believe Hezbollah may have built several hundred drones with these components. Still, Iran remains Hezbollah’s main supplier. “Israel’s air force can fire missiles on different parts of Lebanon, and now Hezbollah has drones and missiles that can reach any areas in Israel,” Iranian political analyst and political science professor Emad Abshenass said. He added that as the U.S. arms its closest ally, Israel, Iran is doing the same by arming groups such as Hezbollah.

Arabists & the Arabic Civilization!!!
Edmond El Chidiac/February 22/2023
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2024/08/76788/
Introduction
Long before the establishment of "Grand Lebanon" in 1920, the Arabists were aggressively and viciously fighting to annihilate Lebanon's distinguishable identity, eradicate its national memory, brainwash its new generations history wise, forge Lebanon's rich, deeply rooted history and sabotage its unique pluralistic, mosaic and multi-cultural society.
The prime objectives of the Arabists' ongoing cultural venomous scheme against the entity of Lebanon and its rich pluralism have always been crystal clear, especially during the last six years. The current scheme is extremely frantic, accusative, and intimidating in its theme and treacherous nature.
At the present time, the scheme is evilly portrayed through an ongoing debate revolving around the state's "history book" that is still in preparation. This book will be adopted by Lebanon's official educational curricula and taught in its schools. The Arabists have been forging the contents of this book in a bid to hide Lebanon's actual history and portray the barbaric and savage Arabic occupation as an act of public re-liberation of a stolen country.
The Arabists and state of Lebanon
The Arabists, known also as unionists, have been, and still are, endeavoring laboriously with bold persistence and tunnel vision mentality to force their Arabism doctrine on Lebanon's pluralistic, multi-ethnic communities. They are committing this assault on the account of the many deeply rooted civilizations that compose Lebanon's pluralistic rich society. They justify these hostile, immoral acts by banners of fate, unity, language, life courses and even religion.
From day one since the Arabic occupation of Lebanon, the Arabists have been infringing on the Lebanese people's rights and aggressively attempting to impose the doctrine of Arabism on them. These attempts have been taking numerous forms and changeable courses. By the end of the Ottoman era they carried their scheme under the pretext of fighting the"Turkeyiazation", and after that under the flag of battling imperialism, occupation, Zionism and the safeguard of unity between the Near East and North Africa that they tagged as the "Arabic world".
The Arabists who refuse to recognize tolerance toward other cultures and religious faiths do not honor any kind of civilized argument or debate. In their own narrow concepts, everybody else must adopt blindly the Arabism doctrine and blindly believe in the faith of all its principles and obligations, or otherwise those others are fascist, separatists, isolationists, Zionists and collaborators.
The Arabists have staunchly rejected the declaration of "Grand Lebanon" in 1920 due to the fact that they were longing for Lebanon's unity with Syria and then for a a comprehensive unity of all the Arabic countries.
The Arabists' rejection of the "Grand Lebanon" state was expressed in their hostile boycotting of the 1922 State's General Census. They boldly and openly abstained from registering themselves in this census and refused to recognize and carry an identity card that says they are Lebanese citizens, as stated by Mohammed Jamil Bayham in his book (The Political Conflicts in Lebanon, page 12). Bayham added: "They carried on their boycotting, until General Goro convinced them to end it, after which he took off the lower section of the identity card that denoted its holder is Lebanese".
Is the Arab Unity viable
In the early sixties, Mohammed Hassanaen Haikal, the well-known Egyptian journalist, paid a visit to the respectable Lebanese historian, Jawad Boulous and listened to his views on Arabic unity. Boulous, who opposed such unity, reminded his guest with the two setbacks in this unity realm. He reminded him of Mohammed Ali's attempt that failed in Egypt and that of Jamal Abdel Nasser's contemporary Egyptian-Syrian unity that ended with a bloody military Syrian coup d'état in 1961.
Why both Arabic unity attempts were nipped in the bud.
Both attempts were a failure due to many vital elements that were ignored. For example, the emotional and enthusiastic Egyptian-Syrian unity took place under the influence of language and religion, but afterwards could not hold on in the face of geographical and historical solid factors.
At the present time, what makes a political and military unity between Arab states impossible lies in the strong rejection of the people of these countries to abandon their freedom and independence for another country, even to a brotherly Arabic one. Their rejection stems from historic hardships, humiliation and oppression that they have experienced through eras of foreign occupation and hegemony to their countries.
The majority of the Middle East countries--ie., Egypt, Syria, Lebanon, Palestine, Iraq, and the Arabic Peninsula--form a big oasis where they are separated from each other by vast deserts. Some of these deserts comprise small oases that are inhibited by nomads (Bedouins). This geographical formation not only rendered the Arab countries' unity--or at least some of them--difficult, but definitely makes it impossible politically and even socially on a voluntary basis. The deserts that are natural obstacles have hindered such unity, while there are no means of transpiration even among those neighboring Arabic countries.
These factors are among many other vital ones that have prevented any partial or complete unity of the Arab countries in one state all through history, except for very short intervals and only via military means. On the other side the separation has always been a trend every time the power that united these countries was weakened.
As a pretax for man-made laws and for their political, economical and social procedures to be successful, they ought to perfectly match and appeal to the environment's needs and take into consideration the society's natural inclinations where they are going to be implemented and adopted.
Meanwhile social changes that are enforced through decrees--mostly made by oppressive, shortsighted politicians--always end in disaster. History teaches us that nations are not reformed or changed merely by laws, but through their peoples' faith, hard work and freedom of choice.
Facts that should be known
The unilateral rigid concepts in the domains of civilizations, ethnicities, cultures, history, religions, etc. are bold infringements on the freedom that Almighty God has granted to man and an underestimation of man's intelligence. These sickening concepts contradict the pluralism, multi-cultural and mosaic bases on which the Lebanese state and other free world democratic countries, like Canada, USA, Australia, etc. were established.
Pluralism calls for the respect of differences in ethnicities, religions, cultures and civilizations. It calls for the kind of societies where respect among people is mutual and tolerance is honored as well as equality, freedom and democracy. It calls for no dominance of majorities over minorities on the bases of religion, culture or ethnicity.
It is worth mentioning that the so-called Arabic civilization does not have the needed elements required to eliminate other civilizations and replace them through enforced biased laws, especially when many of the Eastern civilizations are historically deeply rooted and have been solidly established through thousands of years.
The prime aim of this editorial is to amend many of the derailed, thwarted social, religious and ethnic concepts derived from an environment that bizarrely philosophizes its awkwardness and attempts to impose it on others. These stone-aged Arabists brag about a mirage civilization that has no solid foundations except in myths that they have fabricated and spread.
Realities and facts
1- More than 20% of the Arab countries' inhabitants are not Muslims and have no inferiority complexes in regard to their ancestries' attribution to Qoraiesh. They are fully aware of the numerous realities of their history prior to the Arabic conquest. They call on their Arabic brothers in Lebanon and other Near East countries to respect the non Arabic-Muslim cultures and the history of other peoples in the region since there is no logic or fairness in ignoring more than 7,000 years of history and civilization that prevailed in the Near East countries and its vicinity.
Meanwhile forged and manipulated history, culture and traditions that the Arabists are attempting to force on Lebanon and its neighboring countries are mere infringements on human rights. They will not hold because they are solely based on fanaticism, hatred, awkwardness and rejection of others. We strongly believe that Islam as a religion has nothing to do with these infringements, while those who carry their flags are not following the teachings of this religion.
2- If all Arabs are Muslims, it is a mistake to allege that all Muslims are Arabs. No one can deny the Pharaohian roots of the Egyptians, the Sumaric-Assyrian and Chaldean roots of the Iraqis, the Persian roots of the Iranians and the Barbarian root of the Libyans, Algerians and Tunisians. Most importantly, who can deny the Phoenician roots of the Lebanese, including many of Lebanon's Muslim population.
It is worth mentioning that the percentage of those with Arabic roots among the peoples living in the so-called Arabic countries does not exceed 10%, while the majority of those who say they are Arabs stem from emotional and religious affiliations and not from ethnic or historical realities and facts.
Here is what the historian Dr. Philip Hitti has stated in his book (The history of Syria, Lebanon and Palestine, second edition, pages 88, 89 and 96): "The numbers of the Arabic Army that conquered Syria were around twenty thousand. The numbers of the Muslim and Arab soldiers during the reign of Merwan the First (684-685) were twenty thousand, as documented in the "Dewan Al Jond" records in Homs and its vicinity. Their numbers during Al-Walid's reign (705-715) were forty-five thousand in Damascus and its adjuncts".
Based on these figures, the number of Muslims in Syria in the first century after the conquest could not have exceeded two hundred thousand of the total estimated population of three and half million. Meanwhile the majority of Lebanon's inhabitants remained Aramaics who came from Phoenician descendents. A minority of Bedouins (nomads) were scattered all around.
3- According to the Qur'an, Arabs are the descendents of Ishmael who was Abraham's son. Abraham was Aramaic, according to the Old Testament statement in the Bible in (Deuteronomy 26-5: "Then, in the LORD's presence you will recite these words, 'My ancestor was a wandering Aramean")
Abraham lived in Haran (North East Aleppo, located at the present time in Turkey). His origin was from the Chaldean Or in Iraq. Ishmael, who escaped with his mother Haggar, is an Aramean according to both the Bible and the Qur'an. He came from outside the Arabic Peninsula and his descendents have the same roots.
Based on these facts, those who allege to be of an Arabic origin are required to review the Holy Books and recognize that the Aramaic civilization represents them, or otherwise they would be contradicting these Holy Books that clearly delineate their ancestry.
4- The Arabic civilization as a productive, genuine and creative entity does not actually exist due to the fact that it is merely a transcribing one. It copied from the Aramaic civilization, and then it was detached and isolated in the dry desert that destroyed its components. Later on it was revived religiously by the emerging of Islam, but not as a civilization. Meanwhile the civilizations that Islam oppressed have molded the Arabic civilization and have given it their marvelous creativity and form.
The great Lebanese historian Jawad Bolous delineates this fact in his book ("Great transformations in the Near East History- in the third printing, page 158-160) he states: "In an inclusive sense, there is no absolute and pure Arabic civilization. The Islamic civilization during the first "Abasi era", that by some was called, an Arabic civilization, was in fact an Eastern, Islamic one that used the Arabic language. The Arabic civilization was founded and colored by writers, authors, scientists, doctors, philosophers, scholars, theologians and artists, most of whom came from non-Arabic ancestries".
These facts were also stressed by the Lebanese historian Dr. Philip Hitti in his book, (The Arab, a Summarized History- in pages 76-77) he says: "The Arabs' conquest of the Fertile Crescent, Persia and Egypt made them own the most ancient centers of civilization in the world. They borrowed (learned) science and arts from them; e.g., building, philosophy, medicine, mathematics, literature and governing knowledge, as they had nothing of all of these. With the help of their brothers--from the inhabitants of the conquest countries--the Arabs were able to learn from and invest in their intellectual and educational heritage and shape them to match their mentality".
Dr. Hitti continues to say: "Accordingly the 'Arabic' civilization, was not Arabic in its origin, or in its basic formation, nor in its major national characteristics. The input of the genuine Arabs in this civilization did not exceed the language knowledge and some religious facets. The Arabic - Islamic civilization was basically Aramaic, Greek and Persian. It evolved and progressed under the Qalifa's flag and expressed itself through an Arabic tongue. The Arabic civilization was in fact a logical continuation for the ancient deeply rooted Semitic civilization that was founded by the Babylonians, Assyrians, Phoenicians, Arameans and Hebrews."
Based on all of the above we can conclude that this civilization was not Arabic, except in its name, but actually was an Islamic one that stuck to an Arabic name due to the fact that Islam's language was and is still Arabic. Even the progress of this civilization that reached its peak in the ninth and tenth century was proportional in comparison with that of the West which was drawn into its ages of darkness (the Middle ages).
For all of the above reasons, and for many others that could not be addressed in this editorial, we call on the Arabists:
1- To use logic and abide by the Human Rights' basic principle of tolerance before imposing their "Arabic personality" on others. Meanwhile there is no shame if this personality is tailored to their own size and to match their ambitions, but the shame lies in acts of forcing its limitations and restrictions on others while they claim to honor openness and respect for other civilizations.
2- To restrain themselves from using and abusing the Islamic religion in their irresponsible and bizarre acts, as well as in their fantasies and day dreaming strategies revolving around Arabism. They are also required to abstain from forcing their stone-aged ideologies on others in the name of the Islamic religion when in fact this religion is innocent from all these heretic acts.
Historically Arabists and those akin to them have been the worst enemies of the Muslim faith that advocates freedom of choice in matters of religion in the Qur'an. While Almighty God has given man freedom of choice in regard to religion, how could anyone justify the Arabists' ongoing military war to force certain civilizations on others. One wonders if these Arabists are wiser in their own eyes than God's prophets and angels!!!
The Balanco civilization
We advise the Arabists and all those who advocate for a Lebanese-Syrian unity on the bases of brotherhood and comprehensive Arabic unity to confer first with families of thousands of Lebanese innocent citizens from all denominations and ideologists whose loved ones were either kidnapped, arbitrarily detained, oppressed, humiliated, sent into exile, tortured or brutally murdered by the Syrian Baathist regime and their Lebanese, Palestinian, Irani and Arabic proxies during the past thirty years.
It would be fair, very informative and extremely helpful for those advocates, those akin to them and for all Lebanese people to know how in the name of Arabism, Arabic civilization and Arabic unity, hundreds of Lebanese villages, towns and cities were savagely destroyed, and how many thousands of innocent Lebanese citizens were murdered under these same pretenses. The only crime that all these unfortunate courageous Lebanese have committed is their longing for freedom, peace, equality, democracy, respect of their human rights and the liberation of their occupied beloved country, Lebanon from Syrian and other foreign occupiers. The Arabists' Balanco civilization of one religion, one civilization, one ideology, torture, murder, assassinations, oppression, infringements on other civilizations, discrimination and lack of tolerance is not the kind of civilization the majority of the Lebanese multi-cultural and pluralistic communities would welcome and hale.
NB: Translated by Elias Bejjani

The Story of the Next Lebanon War Starts Now
Mark Dubowitz and David Daoud/National Security Journal/August 08/2024 |
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2024/08/133087/
Beirut, the once-fabled “Paris of the Middle East”, has been down on its luck in recent years. The lack of attention to Lebanon’s decline is now translating into complacency about the combustible situation on the country’s southern border, which it shares with Israel.
On July 27, a Hezbollah rocket flew across the border and killed 12 children on the Golan Heights, the most civilians lost in one day since the massacre of October 7. In retaliation, an Israeli air strike eliminated Hezbollah’s top military commander on July 30. The group’s response is likely to determine whether Lebanon plunges into a war as devastating as the one in Gaza.
Now is the time for journalists and their audiences to develop a clear understanding of how Hezbollah’s misrule and belligerence have brought Lebanon to the brink of a devastating conflict. Regrettably, much of the press corps has decamped from Beirut to more stable hubs such Dubai, Istanbul, and Cairo as the capital sank into misery while Hezbollah consolidated its ascendancy in Lebanese politics.
Epic graft led to Lebanon’s economic implosion in 2019, ushering in a five-year recession that ended the quarter-century of relative prosperity that followed the country’s civil war. The poverty rate has tripled while the middle-class has fled. The country has had no president for almost two years because its ethnic power-sharing arrangements have become paralyzing.
The greatest share of responsibility for this mess belongs to Hezbollah, which wields the most power in Beirut while professing loyalty to the Supreme Leader in Tehran. The group is a terrorist organization, political party, ethnic militia, welfare agency, and narco-crime syndicate rolled into one.
If you’ve not been hearing much about Lebanon’s immiseration or Hezbollah’s role, it is partly because foreign correspondents are now covering their beloved Levant from afar. But there is no substitute for on-site journalism.
The first thing these journalists need to understand, preferably before Hezbollah’s war with Israel begins, is that Hezbollah unilaterally initiated the war of attrition that has now claimed the lives of those 12 Israeli children. The border enjoyed 17 years of relative calm after a brief war in the summer of 2006.
But on October 8, the day after the massacre in southern Israel, Hezbollah began lobbing rockets and suicide drones at Israeli communities. This was a pure expression of support for Hamas, not a response to any Israeli provocation, real or imagined.
Which may also explain why you’ve not been hearing much about the second and far more combustible front to the Gaza war: the Lebanon-Israel border, across which Hezbollah has been lobbing rockets and suicide drones at civilian communities since Oct. 8, just one day after the Hamas atrocities that set the region on edge.
Western diplomats, mainly from Washington and Paris, have shuttled back and forth, urging restraint and offering flimsy solutions that do not address the main cause of conflict: Hezbollah’s determination, with support from its sponsors in Tehran, to tie down Israeli forces in the north to tilt the Gaza war in Hamas’s favor. This is precisely the reason the Islamic Republic in Iran has ringed the Jewish state with proxy forces, so they can work together to destroy it.
If and when an all-out war begins, there will be an ingathering of the Fourth Estate in Beirut, as if by magic. Their bandwidth will expand like a mighty wind filling a sail. They will focus on the innocents who inevitably pay the price for terrorists’ belligerence. And, inevitably, their breathless chronicling of the tragedy will skip past basic causality.
Their focus on the asymmetry of conventional military power will blind them to the asymmetric motives of the combatants: one, a sub-state actor bent on the destruction of a neighbor, the other a democratic nation that merely wants to be left in peace.
We’ve been here before — in 1982, and in 2006, and in an unending parade of smaller border skirmishes in-between. We must not indulge this media myopia again.
On American campuses, there will be new encampments where teach-ins portray the conflict as the war of a Western capitalist juggernaut against downtrodden anti-imperialists. They never see that Tehran is the actual fountainhead of imperialism in the Middle East, bringing the capitals of Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen under its thumb. But the capital it covets most is Jerusalem, and it is employing the war in Gaza as a weapon of mass distraction, turning attention away from its aggressive moves to reach the nuclear weapons threshold.
Once the war begins, the dispatches filed from Beirut are unlikely to remind readers that Hezbollah helped immiserate Lebanon, then plunged it into war. Yet a quick Google search will serve to establish who was attacked first, who appealed time and again for quiet, and who issued warnings about a war it sought avoid: the Israelis. And having established that, you should not indulge reporting that skimps on basic recent history in favor of partisan messaging.
*Mark Dubowitz is chief executive of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD).
David Daoud is a senior fellow focusing on Israel, Hezbollah, and Lebanon. Follow them on X at @mdubowitz and @DavidADaoud.
https://nationalsecurityjournal.org/the-story-of-the-next-lebanon-war-starts-now/

Understanding Nasrallah’s speech: How will Hezbollah avenge Shukr?
David Daoud/Atlantic Council/August 09/ 2024
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2024/08/133096/
Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah spoke for the second time in seven days on August 6, commemorating one week since the assassination of the group’s military commander Fuad Shukr by Israel on July 30. Uncharacteristically calm, Nasrallah devoted much of his speech to covering the Lebanese group’s weaknesses exposed by the assassination and promising to avenge the fallen commander. Like his speech on August 1, this address by Nasrallah also contained hints regarding the form of Hezbollah’s anticipated revenge attack.
Shukr’s killing has put Hezbollah in a bind. The group has been hesitant to provoke Israel since Lebanon’s economy collapsed almost five years ago—recognizing that every altercation could spiral into an undesired conflagration and not wanting to be blamed by the Lebanese for compounding their economic miseries with a war from which the country may not recover. After Hamas spearheaded the October 7, 2023 attack against Israel, however, Hezbollah joined in the next day to support its Gaza-based allies—both expecting a short conflict and feeling secure that their intervention would not spark a war since the Israelis were too preoccupied with operations in the Gaza Strip and restrained by American opposition to the conflict’s expansion into Lebanon. The group split the difference with a war of attrition, as Nasrallah noted in his latest speech that “we have been balancing between the support front [for Gaza] and the conditions in our country.” But as that conflict dragged on, a fatal mistake was inevitable.
That came on July 27, when an errant Hezbollah missile struck a soccer field in Majdal Shams in the Golan Heights, killing twelve Israeli children. Notwithstanding the group’s ongoing and desperate denials of responsibility, Israel had to exact a painful price on the group by killing Shukr in Hezbollah’s stronghold in the capital, Beirut. This wasn’t the first time the Israelis had assassinated such a high-ranking Hezbollah commander. In 2008, in a joint operation with the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), Israel assassinated Imad Mughniyeh, then Hezbollah’s commander-in-chief and most storied military commander in Damascus, Syria. Eight years later, in 2016, the Israelis eliminated his successor Mustafa Badreddine in Syria.
Either of those assassinations should have also warranted serious responses from Hezbollah. However, both occurred outside of Lebanon, during periods of quiet with Israel and during sensitive periods for the group. Mughniyeh was assassinated amidst a political crisis in Lebanon that began in December 2006—mere months after Hezbollah’s war with Israel that summer—and only ended in May 2008. Meanwhile, Badreddine was killed while Hezbollah was fully engaged in Syria’s civil war, perhaps the most existential battle in the group’s history, and could ill afford to open a second front with a foe as powerful as Israel. Yet Israeli silence in both instances allowed Hezbollah to quietly absorb the blows—even blaming Sunni Islamist militants in the case of Badreddine—and focus on more pressing matters.
Shukr’s assassination is fundamentally different. The location alone—Beirut—violated a serious red line for the group. Coupled with his stature and the fact that the Israelis claimed the attack amidst an ongoing confrontation, the strike denied Hezbollah an off-ramp. The group must now respond, but a routine retaliation, akin to the ones it has been conducting for killings of lower-level commanders in south Lebanon, will not suffice given Shukr’s stature and the location of his killing. To avoid looking weak and permitting Israel to set the redlines of the conflict, Hezbollah must mount a more severe response—but this risks an escalation the group would prefer to avoid right now. Hence the group’s dilemma.
Enter Nasrallah. True to form over the past five years, the talkative secretary-general sought to cover his group’s exposed vulnerability with propaganda. Highlighting Hezbollah’s very real destructive power—the group has amassed 200,000 projectiles of different levels of sophistication, after all—he inevitably veered into exaggeration by claiming it could wipe out most of northern Israel’s vital infrastructure “in one hour, half an hour.” He also stressed just how much Hezbollah had established an equilibrium of pain with the Israelis. “Airlines stop arriving in Beirut and Tel Aviv, foreigners flee Lebanon and the entity alike, the villagers of the south and the colonizers of northern Palestine are both displaced, their homes are destroyed like our homes, their factories burn like ours, and their people fear just like ours,” Nasrallah said.
He also stressed the need for Hezbollah to have entered the conflict to prevent an Israeli victory over Gaza. If that occurred, Nasrallah claimed, the Israelis would be so emboldened that “there will be no Palestine, there will be no Palestinian people, there will be no Palestinian refugees—meaning they will be naturalized—and there will be no holy sites [in Jerusalem],” he claimed, stressing that both “Al-Aqsa Mosque will be in grave danger” of being brought down “by one bomb”—as would the Church of the Holy Sepulchre.
Then he vacillated between talking points from this conflict. Nasrallah’s oft-repeated claim is that the Israeli army, which defeated several Arab armies in mere days, had become too weak to defeat Hamas over months, overlooking the differences in Israeli objectives and the added complexity of defeating a guerilla organization embedded in civilian areas. Namely, that Israel was “standing on a leg and a half” in anticipation of Hezbollah’s retaliation—and that “this Israeli anticipation for a week is part of the punishment, response, and battle, because the battle is psychological, one of morale and nerves and brains, [not just] weapons and blood.”
Here, Nasrallah was harking back to the last time the Israelis had flagrantly violated a Hezbollah redline by killing one of their fighters, Ali Kamel Mohsen, in Damascus in July 2020. “If you kill our fighters in Syria, we will kill you from Lebanon,” Nasrallah had thundered in August 2019. But when Mohsen was killed, with the COVID-19 pandemic further burdening Lebanon’s battered economy—which had practically imploded in October 2019—Hezbollah failed to act on its threats, quickly covering up their inaction by claiming that Israel’s fear of a response was, in and of itself, the punishment for Mohsen’s death.
But propaganda alone will not suffice now. Hezbollah will have to respond, and their responsibility must be obvious. Nasrallah promised—in his August 1 speech as with his last—that “our response is coming, God willing…precious blood [has been shed], and the resistance cannot, no matter the consequences, remain idle….our response will be strong, impactful, and effective,” without elaborating more.
It is quite possible the Israelis have crossed one of Hezbollah’s irreversible redlines, and the group, either alongside the rest of the Iran-backed Resistance Axis or separately, has decided to go to war or to undertake a retaliatory response that bears a high chance of leading to war—“no matter the consequences” for Lebanon. Nasrallah certainly hinted at that in his speech, both by detailing the alleged threat posed to the region by an Israeli victory in Gaza and by stressing, “No one can ask, in Lebanon or outside, that we deal with the aggression that happened last Tuesday [i.e., Shukr’s assassination] as if it was an ordinary aggression as part of the battle ongoing for ten months.”
But it’s likelier that Hezbollah is planning a more limited response. It’s not that the group does not desire a full war with Israel, one it hopes will bring about the Jewish state’s destruction, but it seeks to wage that war under optimal conditions that maximize its chances of success: when its arsenal is stronger and larger, Lebanon’s domestic conditions have improved, its regional partners are similarly positioned, and—preferably—when Iran can provide them with a nuclear umbrella. Indeed, Nasrallah indicated these conditions had not ripened by noting, “the objective of the current battle is not destroying Israel, but denying it victory and the ability to destroy the Palestinian resistance.” This was echoed the same day by Ibrahim al-Amine, Nasrallah insider and editor-in-chief of the secular left-leaning pro-Hezbollah daily Al-Akhbar. Al-Amine wrote that, whatever the nature of the retaliation against Israel, its effect on the central goal of the ongoing battle—“stopping the aggression against Gaza”—will remain the core consideration.
Therefore, Hezbollah and the Resistance Axis will not likely undertake any action that would complicate achieving a ceasefire in Gaza, the surest and quickest way to halt the Israeli campaign there.
Hezbollah could be planning a one-time, intense, individual retaliation. This would be the riskiest option for the group. It would carefully have to thread the needle between a retaliatory attack sufficiently painful to settle the score for Shukr while remaining below the threshold, which could lead to a spiral of escalation. Alternatively, the group could plan to participate in a one-time retaliatory strike alongside Iran and the remainder of the Resistance Axis. This would be more advantageous for Hezbollah, allowing the group to strike Israel with more intensity in that one instance but leaving it less exposed to individual consequences by blending its attack into the rest of the Resistance Axis retaliation.
Hezbollah could also be planning to overall permanently escalate the intensity, frequency, and depth of its attacks against Israel—but keep them limited below the threshold that would justify war. This could occur only on the Lebanon front or across all “support fronts” opened by the Resistance Axis.
*David Daoud is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD). Follow him on X: @DavidADaoud.
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/iransource/hezbollah-nasrallah-speech-fuad-shukr-iran/

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on August 09-10/2024
Israel agrees to resume Gaza truce talks next week
AFP/August 09, 2024
GAZA STRIP, Palestinian Territories, Aug 8, 2024 Agence France Presse: Israel has agreed to resume Gaza ceasefire talks on August 15 at the demand of US, Qatari and Egyptian mediators, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said on Thursday, as regional tensions skyrocket over the war. Gaza’s Hamas-controlled civil defense agency said Israeli bombardment killed more than 18 people in strikes on two schools on Thursday, as Iran accused Israel of wanting to spread war in the Middle East. After a week-long pause in November, US, Qatari and Egyptian mediators have endeavoured to secure a second truce in the 10-month-old war sparked by Hamas’s unprecedented October 7 attack on Israel. In a joint statement on Thursday, the three countries’ leaders invited the warring parties to resume talks on August 15 in Doha or Cairo “to close all remaining gaps and commence implementation of the deal without further delay.”A framework agreement was “now on the table, with only the details of implementation” left to conclude, and the mediators were “prepared to present a final bridging proposal” to resolve remaining issues, they said. Netanyahu’s office said later Thursday Israel would send a negotiating team on August 15 “to the agreed place to conclude the details of implementing a deal.”A prospective cessation of hostilities also involving the release of hostages held in Gaza and scaled-up aid deliveries has centered around a phased deal beginning with an initial truce. Recent discussions have focused on a framework outlined by US President Joe Biden in late May which he said had been proposed by Israel. “It’s not like the agreement’s going to be ready to sign on Thursday. There’s still a significant amount of work to do,” a senior Biden administration official said of the talks that come after calls between Biden and the Egyptian and Qatari leaders this week. Israel had been “very receptive” to the idea of the talks, the official told reporters on condition of anonymity, rejecting suggestions that Netanyahu was stalling on a deal. The announcement of the talks came after Hamas named Yahya Sinwar — the alleged mastermind of the October 7 attack — as its new leader, sparking fears the torturous negotiations have become even more difficult.
On the ground in Gaza, the Hamas-controlled civil defense agency said Israeli strikes hit Al-Zahra and Abdel Fattah Hamoud schools in Gaza City, killing more than 18 people. Senior agency official Mohammad Al-Mughayyir said 60 people were wounded and more than 40 still missing. “This is a clear targeting of schools and safe civilian facilities in the Gaza Strip,” he said. The Israeli military said the schools housed Hamas command centers. At least 13 people were killed elsewhere in Gaza, rescuers and medics reported, as the Israeli military issued its latest evacuation order, for parts of the main southern city of Khan Yunis.Diplomats pressed efforts to defuse tensions in the region, sky-high after the killing of two top militant leaders in attacks blamed on Israel that the militants and their Iranian backers have vowed to avenge. Iran’s acting foreign minister, Ali Bagheri, told AFP that Israel had committed “a strategic mistake” by killing Hamas’s political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran last week — hours after the assassination in Beirut of Hezbollah’s military chief. Although Israel has not admitted to killing Haniyeh, Iran and its allies have vowed to retaliate. Israel seeks “to expand tension, war and conflict to other countries,” but has neither “the capacity nor the strength” to fight Iran, Bagheri said. Netanyahu, speaking at a military base on Wednesday, said Israel was “prepared both defensively and offensively” and “determined” to defend itself. Officials in the Middle East and beyond have called for calm, with Britain’s minister for international development, Anneliese Dodds, telling AFP on a visit to Jordan: “We must see a de-escalation.”The United States, which has sent extra warships and jets to the region, has urged both Iran and Israel to avoid an escalation. France’s President Emmanuel Macron spoke Wednesday with his Iranian counterpart Masoud Pezeshkian and later with Israel’s Netanyahu, telling both to “avoid a cycle of reprisals,” according to the French presidency. The Israel-Hamas war in the Gaza Strip has already drawn in Tehran-aligned militants in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen.
Lebanese Hamas ally Hezbollah, which has traded near-daily cross-border fire with Israeli troops throughout the Gaza war, has vowed retaliation for military chief Fuad Shukr’s killing. The unprecedented Hamas attack that triggered the war in Gaza resulted in the deaths of 1,198 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on Israeli official figures. Palestinian militants seized 251 hostages, 111 of whom are still held in Gaza, including 39 the Israeli military says are dead. Israel’s retaliatory military campaign in Gaza has killed at least 39,699 people, according to the Hamas-run territory’s health ministry, which does not give details of civilian and militant deaths. Netanyahu, who has resisted making an apology for security failures over Israel’s worst-ever attack, said in an interview published Thursday that he was “sorry, deeply, that something like this happened.”“You always look back and you say, ‘Could we have done things that would have prevented it?’” Netanyahu told Time magazine.

US releases $3.5 billion to Israel to spend on US weapons and military equipment, months after Congress appropriated
Natasha Bertrand, Alex Marquardt and Lauren Fox, CNN/August 9, 2024
The US is set to provide Israel with $3.5 billion to spend on US weapons and military equipment, releasing the money months after it was appropriated by Congress as tensions continue to rise between Israel and Iran, multiple officials familiar with the matter told CNN. The State Department notified lawmakers on Thursday night that the Biden administration intended to release the billions of dollars worth of foreign military financing to Israel, one of the sources said. The money comes from the $14.1 billion supplemental funding bill for Israel that was passed by Congress in April, the sources said. The funding is essentially money Israel can use to buy advanced weapons systems and other equipment from the US through the Foreign Military Financing program. Sources told CNN it is not unusual for it to take time for money to be released from these packages. But the funding was released this week as Israel and the broader region have been bracing for an attack by Iran and/or Hezbollah following Israel’s assassinations of senior Hamas and Hezbollah leaders in Tehran and Beirut earlier this month. Israel won’t receive $3.5 billion worth of US-made weapons immediately. Instead, the funding is so Israel can procure systems that are being built now and likely won’t be delivered for several years. The supplemental funding also allocated billions of dollars’ worth of equipment that the Pentagon can draw from its own stockpiles to send directly to Israel on a much faster timeline. US diplomats and the Biden administration have also been pushing peace efforts in the region in recent weeks, amid the looming threat of retaliatory strikes against Israel. Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke with Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi for the second time in a week, according to a State Department readout of their call Friday, about “efforts to calm tensions in the region.”“The Secretary and Foreign Minister Safadi discussed the joint statement by the United States, Egypt, and Qatar which called for an immediate ceasefire to provide relief to both Palestinians in Gaza and the hostages and their families,” according to State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller in the statement.

US tells Israel that escalations in Middle East serve no one
Kanishka Singh/WASHINGTON (Reuters) /August 9, 2024
- U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken told Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant in a phone call on Friday that the escalation of tensions in the Middle East was "in no party's interest" while also stressing the need for a Gaza ceasefire, the State Department said. There has been an increased risk of escalation into a broader Middle East war after recent killings of Palestinian Islamist group Hamas' leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran and of Hezbollah military commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut drew threats of retaliation against Israel. As a result, many fear a widening of Israel's war in Gaza that has already killed tens of thousands and caused a humanitarian crisis, following Hamas' Oct. 7 attack on Israel. "The Secretary reaffirmed the United States' ironclad commitment to Israel's security and discussed how escalation is in no party's interest," the State Department said in a statement. Blinken stressed the "urgent need to reach a ceasefire in Gaza" that could release hostages held in the enclave and "create the conditions for broader regional stability," the State Department added. A day earlier, Gallant spoke to U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin about the situation in the region. The latest bloodshed in the decades-old Israeli-Palestinian conflict was triggered on Oct. 7 when Hamas attacked Israel, killing 1,200 and taking about 250 hostages, according to Israeli tallies. The Gaza health ministry says that since then Israel's military assault on the Hamas-governed enclave has killed nearly 40,000 Palestinians while also displacing nearly the entire population of 2.3 million, causing a hunger crisis and leading to genocide accusations that Israel denies.President Joe Biden laid out a three-phase ceasefire proposal in an address on May 31. Washington and regional mediators have since tried arranging the Gaza ceasefire-for-hostages deal but have consistently run into obstacles.

Mediators urge Israel and Hamas to accept ‘final’ proposal on ceasefire deal as threat of Iran attack looms
Alex Marquardt and Mostafa Salem, CNN/August 9, 2024
Mediators in ceasefire-hostage talks between Israel and Hamas are making a renewed push to bring the warring parties to the negotiating table, as fears of an imminent Iranian attack on Israel threaten to escalate the conflict into a wider regional war. The leaders of the United States, Qatar and Egypt said on Thursday they may present what they called a “final bridging proposal” next week, urging Israel and Hamas to conclude a ceasefire and hostage deal in Gaza. The three countries have been leading mediation efforts to strike a deal, and US officials claimed they were getting close before the political leader of Hamas, a principal negotiator on the deal, was killed last week in Iran in a blast widely believed to have been orchestrated by Israel. Israel hasn’t confirmed or denied responsibility. On Thursday night, the mediators stepped up the pressure on Israel and Hamas to resume talks in either Cairo or Doha next week. A source familiar the discussions told CNN that a meeting is being planned for August 15 and is expected to happen, but Israel and Hamas need to confirm their attendance. “The three of us and our teams have worked tirelessly over many months to forge a framework agreement that is now on the table with only the details of implementation left to conclude,” the three heads of state said in the statement. “There is no further time to waste nor excuses from any party for further delay,” they added. “It is time to release the hostages, begin the ceasefire, and implement this agreement.”The joint statement comes as the region braces for potential strikes against Israel by both Iran and Hezbollah – as well as other Iranian proxy groups – following the killing of top Hezbollah military commander Fu’ad Shukr and the Hamas leader, Ismail Haniyeh, late last month. “This situation is extremely dangerous,” Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi told CNN on Wednesday. “The threat of the region being dragged into a regional war is real.”For months, Hamas and Israel have traded proposals and counterproposals, with help from the trio of mediators. On Thursday, the three mediators argued that they are “prepared to present a final bridging proposal that resolves the remaining implementation issues.”The office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed Israel will send a delegation to the talks. “Following the proposal of the United States and the mediators, Israel will send on August 15 the negotiating delegation to a place to be determined to summarize the details for the implementation of the framework agreement,” according to a statement from Netanyahu’s office.
CNN has reached out to Hamas officials for comment.
Yahya Sinwar, a senior Hamas official and one of Israel’s most wanted individuals, has been named as the new political leader of the organization, succeeding Ismail Haniyeh, who was based in Qatar. Sinwar, reportedly hiding in a tunnel beneath Gaza, is difficult to reach and is considered a hardliner in his stance towards Israel.
Warning Israel and Iran
Washington has been warning both Israel and Iran against escalating the violence after 10 months of war in Gaza, in calls with Israel directly and indirect communications through allies to Tehran. “The risk of a major escalation if they do a significant retaliatory attack against Israel is extremely high,” a US official said Iran was told. Escalation would mean “a serious risk of consequences for Iran’s economy and the stability of its newly elected government if it goes down that path,” the official added. The warnings are not meant to imply that the US would carry out its own military strikes against Iran, the official said. The Biden administration is preparing to help defend Israel, as it did in mid-April during an unprecedented Iranian strike with over 300 drones and missiles. That attack was preceded by a suspected Israeli bombing of an Iranian diplomatic facility in Damascus. The Wall Street Journal earlier reported the warning to Iran. Just days before Haniyeh’s killing, the mediators met with Israel’s head of intelligence, Mossad director David Barnea, in Rome to receive Israel’s latest proposal. Barnea left after just a few hours following a strike attributed to Hezbollah in the Israel-occupied Golan Heights that killed a dozen people. If a meeting happens next week, it would be the first movement on talks that were feared over following Haniyeh’s assassination, and would resurrect hopes that an agreement may be reached. The Hostage and Missing Families Forum expresses “deepest gratitude” to the US, Qatar, and Egypt for their statement.
“A deal is the only path to bring all hostages home,” HMFF said in a statement on Thursday. “Time is running out. The hostages have no more to spare. A deal must be signed now!”

Families flee new Israeli assault in Gaza's Khan Younis
Nidal al-Mughrabi and Hatem Khaled/CAIRO/GAZA (Reuters)/August 9, 2024
Israeli tanks returned to the southern Gaza city of Khan Younis on Friday, forcing thousands to evacuate along congested roadways, as Palestinian fighters continued to attack Israeli troops from the ruins, residents and the military said. Families fled eastern Khan Younis in vehicles and on foot, belongings heaped on donkey carts and motorcycle rickshaws as they made their slow escape along congested roads. With Israel and Lebanon braced for a possible escalation in fighting, leaders from the United States, Egypt, and Qatar attempted a last-ditch effort to revive efforts to halt the fighting in Gaza, scheduling a new round of talks for Aug. 15. In recent weeks Israeli forces which swept into nearly the entire Gaza Strip over more than ten months of war have been returning to the ruins of areas where they previously claimed to have driven Hamas fighters out. In the latest assault, the military dropped leaflets ordering residents and displaced people sheltering in eastern Khan Younis, Gaza's main southern city, to evacuate from an area that has already seen repeated waves of fighting. Families packed into buses and cars, many seeking shelter in Al-Mawasi, a sandy stretch of ground along the coast, though some expressed fear that it has been attacked in the past despite being designated as a safe zone by Israeli forces. "We don't know where are we going, to the beach to Al-Mawasi, any place we will stay at. There is no safe place here. They struck everywhere, they already struck Al-Mawasi and many people were killed. There is no safety, the safety is with God," said displaced man Ahmed al-Farra. Um Raed Abu Elyan said she and her family were "running from the fire, we are running with our children from fear". Asked where would she go she replied: "God knows, we are walking now. They said to go to humanitarian areas, but there is no safe place here in Gaza. It is all destroyed and damaged." The Israeli military said troops hit dozens of targets belonging to Hamas militants in Khan Younis and Rafah close to the Egyptian border, seizing arms depots, destroying infrastructure and killing dozens of fighters equipped with weapons including rocket propelled grenades.
CEASEFIRE TALKS
There was no immediate detail on what was expected from the meeting called for Aug. 15 to discuss a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal. Previous talks have failed to yield a ceasefire since a single week-long truce last November. Israel's prime minister's office said a delegation would be sent to the talks but declined to give further details. There was no immediate comment from Hamas, whose newly appointed overall leader Yahya Sinwar is believed to run the battle, possibly from the tunnels of Gaza. The mediators are anxious to revive the effort to halt the fighting in Gaza with fears growing of a possible broader conflict in the region. Iran has vowed to retaliate after Hamas's leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran and Israel killed a top commander of Lebanese militant group Hezbollah in a strike on a Beirut suburb. A Hamas response to the latest proposal for talks "needs to be studied carefully with its allies. If Israel was serious about reaching a ceasefire, they could have simply accepted the proposal Hamas agreed to," said one Palestinian official familiar with the mediation effort. Israel launched its assault on Gaza aiming to wipe out Hamas after the group's fighters launched an assault on Israeli towns on Oct. 7, killing 1,200 people and capturing more than 250 hostages according to Israeli tallies. Since then, Israel has killed nearly 40,000 Palestinians in Gaza, according to figures from health officials in the enclave, who say thousands of others are feared dead under the rubble. Israel says it has killed or incapacitated more than 14,000 Hamas fighters, roughly half the number it estimated it faced at the start of the war, and broke the group's organised fighting structure. But Palestinians say that despite the near total devastation of Gaza Israel has failed to crush Hamas, with fighters able to mount guerrilla attacks and ambushes even as Israel prepares for war on a possible second front on the Lebanese border. In the Central Gaza Strip, residents and Hamas media said Israeli tanks had advanced into the western area of Al-Nuseirat, one of Gaza's main historic refugee camps. The territory's health ministry said Israeli military strikes in central and southern parts of the enclave had killed at least eight Palestinians so far on Friday.

US says no sanctions against Israeli military unit in death of Palestinian-American
AFP/August 10, 2024
WASHINGTON: The US State Department said Friday it would not sanction an Israeli army unit involved in the killing of a Palestinian-American, saying Israel had already taken remedial action. Omar Assad, 78, a grocer who spent most of his adult life in Milwaukee, was on a return visit to the West Bank in January 2022 when he was handcuffed, gagged and blindfolded, dying after lying on the ground for more than an hour on a cold winter night. The incident was linked to the Israeli army’s Netzah Yehuda, a unit founded in 1999 to encourage recruits from the ultra-Orthodox community, which is largely exempt from compulsory military service. A State Department panel decided against imposing sanctions on the unit after being presented with information by the government of Israel, which has vocally opposed action against its military amid the ongoing war with Hamas in the Gaza Strip. “After thoroughly reviewing that information, we have determined that violations by this unit have also been effectively remediated,” State Department spokesman Vedant Patel said. “This unit can continue receiving security assistance from the United States of America,” he said. A US official said that two soldiers involved in the incident, while not ultimately prosecuted, were removed from combat positions and have left the military. The military has also taken steps “to avoid a recurrence of incidents,” including enhanced screening of recruits and a two-week educational seminar specifically for the unit.
Experts say that Netzah Yehuda has mostly drawn ultra-Orthodox youths who see the military as a way to integrate into Israeli society, but it has also attracted fervent nationalists from the West Bank. The West Bank, which Israel has occupied since 1967, is home to three million Palestinians alongside some 490,000 Israelis living in settlements considered illegal under international law. The army concluded that Assad’s death was the result of “a moral failure and poor decision-making on the part of the soldiers.” It said Assad “refused to cooperate” when stopped by soldiers in the village of Jiljilya and that soldiers tied his hands and gagged him without checking on him later. It was unclear why soldiers stopped Assad. The Palestinian official news agency Wafa said he died from a stress-induced heart attack. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has voiced anger over foreign pressure on human rights, insisting the country has its own means of justice. The International Criminal Court in May said it intended to pursue arrest warrants for Netanyahu, his defense minister and Hamas leaders for alleged war crimes in the Gaza war.

Quds Force Chief Says Iran Will Avenge Killing of Hamas Leader
Asharq Al-Awsat/August 09/2024
Iranian Revolutionary Guards' Quds Force chief Ismail Qaani says in a letter to the new leader of Hamas that Tehran will avenge the killing of his predecessor who was killed in the Iranian capital last week. The letter, of which a copy was seen by The Associated Press, came days after the leadership of Hamas chose Yahya Sinwar as its new leader replacing the late Ismail Haniyeh, who was killed during a visit to Iran. Since Haniyeh was killed in an explosion during a visit to Iran, tension has been rising in the region as Tehran blamed Israel for his death and vowed to retaliate. “We are preparing to avenge his blood, a painful and difficult incident that happened in the Islamic Republic of Iran. This is our duty,” Qaani told Sinwar about Haniyeh. He didn't elaborate on how Teheran will avenge Haniyeh’s death. Qaani said that Haniyeh’s blood will “make the harsh punishment to the Zionist entity at the hand of the Islamic Republic” harsher that previous ones. He was apparently referring to the mid-April missile and drone attack that Iran launched against Israel to avenge an Israeli airstrike on the Iranian Consulate in the Syrian capital in which two Iranian generals were killed. Qaani vowed in the letter to Sinwar that Tehran “will be with you on the road of resistance until we achieve the divine promise which is to clear Jerusalem.

Iran leader’s order to ‘harshly punish’ Israel will be carried out, Guards deputy chief says
Reuters/August 09, 2024
DUBAI: Iran is set to carry out an order by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to “harshly punish” Israel over the assassination of a Hamas leader in Tehran, a Revolutionary Guards deputy commander was quoted as saying on Friday by local news agencies. “The supreme leader’s orders regarding the harsh punishment of Israel and revenge for the blood of martyr Ismail Haniyeh are clear and explicit ...and they will be implemented in the best possible way,” said Ali Fadavi, cited by Iranian media. Asked by reporters to respond to the Iranian remarks, White House national security spokesperson John Kirby, said the United States was ready to defend Israel with plenty of resources in the region. “When we hear rhetoric like that we’ve got to take it seriously, and we do,” he said.

Iranian Guards navy has new highly explosive missiles, state media say
Reuters/August 9, 2024
The Iranian Revolutionary Guards said on Friday that its navy has new cruise missiles equipped with highly explosive warheads that are undetectable, state media reported. The announcement by the country's most powerful security organisation coincides with fears of a full-blown Middle East war after Iran vowed to avenge the assassination in Tehran on July 31 of Ismail Haniyeh, leader of the Palestinian Islamist Hamas. Iran has blamed Israel, while Israel has neither confirmed nor denied involvement. "In today's world you either have to be powerful to survive, or surrender. There's no middle ground," said the Guards' top commander, Major-General Hossein Salami. "A large number of cruise missiles have been added to the Guards' navy fleet. These new missiles have capabilities of highly explosive warheads that are undetectable and can cause extensive damage and sink their targets," a Guards statement said.
The Guards' navy also said in a statement that various types of long and medium range missile systems, as well as reconnaissance drones and naval radars, have been added to its fleet. "These systems are among the most up-to-date anti-surface and sub-surface weapons in the Guards' navy," it said. State television displayed several of the weapons on Friday. The navy added that only 210 of the 2,654 systems were shown as it was not possible to unveil other strategic ones for security reasons. Iran has one of the biggest missile programs in the Middle East, regarding such weapons as an important deterrent and retaliatory force against U.S. and Israel in the event of war. According to the U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence, Iran is armed with the largest number of ballistic missiles in the region.

Pakistan says it will support all efforts to prevent Middle East escalation
Charlotte Greenfield/ISLAMABAD (Reuters)/August 9, 2024
Pakistan would support all efforts to prevent war escalating in the Middle East, its foreign ministry said on Friday, as fears grow of a wider conflict involving Israel and Iran. The Middle East is bracing for a possible new wave of attacks by Iran and its allies following last week's killing of senior members of militant groups Hamas and Hezbollah. Tehran has blamed the death of Hamas's political leader on Iranian soil on Israel, which has not confirmed involvement. The United States has been carrying out round-the-clock diplomacy, urging other countries through diplomatic channels to tell Iran that escalation in the Middle East is not in their interest, according to the state department. "Pakistan will support all efforts to prevent a war in the Middle East," said Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mumtaz Zahra Baloch at a media briefing. She did not comment on whether Pakistan had been in contact with Washington over the issue.
She denied reports by the Jerusalem Post newspaper that Pakistan was planning to provide Shaheen-III medium-range ballistic missiles to Iran. Pakistan does not have diplomatic ties with Israel. It has seen a stark improvement in previously rocky ties with neighbouring Iran that culminated in tit-for-tat military fire between the two nations in January. Iran's president visited in April and the nations have said they are boosting trade ties and regional cooperation. Pakistan's deputy prime minister and foreign minister Ishaq Dar had spoken by phone with Iran's foreign minister in recent days, Baloch said, and had attended an emergency meeting convened by the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) meeting in Saudi Arabia this week where he condemned Israel's actions in the Gaza strip and called for a ceasefire and better access for humanitarian aid. "He also called for preventing further escalation of violence and tensions," she added. This week a Pakistani man with alleged ties to Iran was charged in the United States in connection with a foiled plot to assassinate a U.S. politician or government officials, according to the justice department. Baloch said Pakistan had contacted U.S. authorities and was waiting for more information. She added Pakistan could not determine any individual's nationality without full details.

UN rights office decries 'alarmingly high' number of executions in Iran: 29 over two days this week
GENEVA (AP)/August 9, 2024
The U.N. human rights office is expressing concerns about reports that Iran has executed 29 people over two days this week, with the rights chief decrying “an alarmingly high number" of executions in such a short period of time. The office of the U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights said Friday it has verified 38 people were executed in July, bringing the total number of executions to at least 345 this year — mostly for drug offenses or murder — including 15 women. “Imposing the death penalty for offenses not involving intentional killing is incompatible with international human rights norms and standards,” rights office spokeswoman Liz Throssell told a U.N. briefing Friday. “U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk is extremely concerned about reports that, in the space of two days this week, Iranian authorities reportedly executed at least 29 people across the country,” she said. “This represents an alarmingly high number of executions in such a short period of time.” Throssell said minorities including Kurds, Arabs and Baloch were disproportionately affected by the executions. Some prisoners were executed without their families or lawyers being told. The United Nations has had longstanding concerns about executions in Iran, and U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres issued a report in November decrying the “alarming rate” of them in the Islamic Republic.

Three suspected Houthi attacks target a ship off Yemen, authorities say
Jon Gambrell/DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) /August 9, 2024
Three suspected attacks by Yemen's Houthi rebels targeted a ship in the strategic Bab el-Mandeb Strait linking the Gulf of Aden to the Red Sea, including one that saw private security guards shoot and destroy a bomb-loaded drone boat, authorities said Friday. The Houthis did not immediately claim the assaults, though they follow a monthslong campaign by the rebels targeting shipping through the Red Sea corridor over Israel’s war on Hamas in the Gaza Strip. After a recent two-week pause, their attacks resumed following the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran, amid concerns of a wider regional war. Iran backs the Houthis as part of what it calls a regional “Axis of Resistance.” “The operations are ongoing — our operations toward occupied Palestine to target the Israeli enemy, our operations at sea, the inevitable forthcoming response, as well as coordination with the axis in any joint operations,” warned the Houthi's secretive leader, Abdul Malik al-Houthi, in a speech Thursday. “The decision to respond is a collective decision, at the level of the entire axis and at the level of each front individually.”In the first attack, a rocket-propelled grenade exploded close to the ship Thursday, according to the British military's United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center. Two smaller craft, with men aboard wearing white and yellow raincoats, launched the RPG, the UKMTO said. The second attack came early Friday, with a missile “exploding in close proximity to the vessel,” the UKMTO said. “The vessel and crew are reported to be safe.”The private security firm Ambrey reported that the ship was hit by a drone that caused no injuries or physical damage. “The vessel was assessed to be aligned with the Houthi target profile,” Ambrey said. “The vessel was assessed to have been targeted earlier in the day.”
Then came the third attack with the drone boat, where private security guards on board “opened fire and (were) able to successfully destroy the vehicle,” Ambrey said. Though the Houthis did not immediately claim the attack, it sometimes can take hours or even days to acknowledge their assaults. They've also claimed others that apparently haven't happened. The Houthis have targeted more than 70 vessels with missiles and drones in a campaign that has killed four sailors since the start of the Israel-Hamas war in the Gaza Strip. They have seized one vessel and sunk two in the time since. Other missiles and drones have been either intercepted by a U.S.-led coalition in the Red Sea or splashed down before reaching their targets. The rebels maintain that their attacks target ships linked to Israel, the United States or Britain as part of a campaign they say seeks to force an end to the war. However, many of the ships attacked have little or no connection to the war, including some bound for Iran. Since November, Houthi attacks have disrupted the $1 trillion of goods that flow annually through the region, while also sparking the most intense combat the U.S. Navy has seen since World War II.
The Houthis also have launched drones and missiles toward Israel, including an attack on July 19 that killed one person and wounded 10 others in Tel Aviv. Israel responded the next day with airstrikes on the Houthi-held port city of Hodeida that hit fuel depots and electrical stations, killing and wounding a number of people, the rebels say. After the strikes, the Houthis paused their attacks until Saturday, when they hit a Liberian-flagged container ship traveling through the Gulf of Aden. Meanwhile on Thursday, U.S. Air Force F-22 Raptor fighter jets arrived in the Mideast from a base in the United Kingdom, authorities said Thursday. U.S. Central Command posted images online of the fighters, saying their presence in the region was “to address threats posed by Iran and Iranian-backed groups.” The U.S. has declined to say where the aircraft landed due to host nation sensitivities. Central Command later said it destroyed two Houthi anti-ship cruise missiles and one Houthi ground control station, as well as a drone boat in the Red Sea.

US to lift ban on offensive weapons sales to Saudi Arabia, sources say
Humeyra Pamuk, Patricia Zengerle and Steve Holland/WASHINGTON (Reuters)/August 09, 2024
WASHINGTON/The Biden administration has decided to lift a ban on U.S. sales of offensive weapons to Saudi Arabia, five sources familiar with the matter told Reuters on Friday, reversing a three-year-old policy to pressure the kingdom to wind down the Yemen war. The administration briefed Congress this week on its decision to lift the ban, a congressional aide said. One source said sales could resume as early as next week. The U.S. government was moving ahead on Friday afternoon with notifications about a sale, a person briefed on the matter said. "The Saudis have met their end of the deal, and we are prepared to meet ours," a senior Biden administration official said. Under U.S. law, major international weapons deals must be reviewed by members of Congress before they are made final. Democratic and Republican lawmakers have questioned the provision of offensive weapons to Saudi Arabia in recent years, citing issues including the toll on civilians of its campaign in Yemen and a range of human rights concerns. But that opposition has softened amid turmoil in the Middle East following Hamas' deadly Oct. 7 attack on Israel and because of changes in the conduct of the campaign in Yemen. The threat level in the region has been heightened since late last month, with Iran and Lebanon's powerful Iran-backed Hezbollah group vowing to retaliate against Israel after Hamas' political chief Ismail Haniyeh was killed in Tehran. The Biden administration also has been negotiating a defense pact and an agreement for civil nuclear cooperation with Riyadh as part of a broad deal that envisions Saudi Arabia normalizing ties with Israel, although that remains an elusive goal. Since March 2022 - when the Saudis and Houthis entered into a U.N.-led truce - there have not been any Saudi airstrikes in Yemen and cross-border fire from Yemen into the kingdom has largely stopped, the administration official said. Biden adopted the tougher stance on weapons sales to Saudi Arabia in 2021, citing the kingdom's campaign against the Iran-aligned Houthis in Yemen, which has inflicted heavy civilian casualties. Yemen's war is seen as one of several proxy battles between Iran and Saudi Arabia. The Houthis ousted a Saudi-backed government from Sanaa in late 2014 and have been at war against a Saudi-led military alliance since 2015, a conflict that has killed hundreds of thousands of people and left 80% of Yemen's population dependent on humanitarian aid. "We are regularly conducting airstrikes to degrade Houthi capabilities, an effort that is ongoing and will continue together with a coalition of partners," the senior U.S. administration official said. "We have designated the Houthis as Specially Designated Global Terrorists, and we will have imposed sanctions and additional costs on the Houthi smuggling networks and military apparatus. This pressure will continue to build over the coming weeks," the official said.

Exclusive-Iran to deliver hundreds of ballistic missiles to Russia soon, intel sources say
Anthony Deutsch, Tom Balmforth and Jonathan Landay/(Reuters) /August 9, 2024
Dozens of Russian military personnel are being trained in Iran to use the Fath-360 close-range ballistic missile system, two European intelligence sources told Reuters, adding that they expected the imminent delivery of hundreds of the satellite-guided weapons to Russia for its war in Ukraine.
Russian defence ministry representatives are believed to have signed a contract on Dec. 13 in Tehran with Iranian officials for the Fath-360 and another ballistic missile system built by Iran's government-owned Aerospace Industries Organization (AIO) called the Ababil, said the two intelligence officials, who requested anonymity in order to discuss sensitive matters. Citing multiple confidential intelligence sources, the officials said that Russian personnel have visited Iran to learn how to operate the Fath-360 defence system, which launches missiles with a maximum range of 120 km (75 miles) and a warhead of 150 kg. One of the sources said that that "the only next possible" step after training would be actual delivery of the missiles to Russia. Moscow possesses its own ballistic missiles, but the supply of Fath-360s could allow Russia to use more of its arsenal for targets beyond the front line, while employing Iranian warheads for closer-range targets, a military expert said. A spokesman for the U.S. National Security Council said the United States and its NATO allies and G7 partners "are prepared to deliver a swift and severe response if Iran were to move forward with such transfers." It "would represent a dramatic escalation in Iran's support for Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine," the spokesman said. "The White House has repeatedly warned of the deepening security partnership between Russia and Iran since the outset of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine." Russia's defence ministry did not respond to a request for comment.
Iran's permanent mission to the United Nations in New York said in a statement that the Islamic Republic had forged a long-term strategic partnership with Russia in various areas, including military cooperation. "Nevertheless, from an ethical standpoint, Iran refrains from transferring any weapons, including missiles, that could potentially be used in the conflict with Ukraine until it is over," the statement said. The White House declined to confirm that Iran was training Russian military personnel on the Fath-360 or that it was preparing to ship the weapons to Russia for use against Ukraine. The two intelligence sources gave no exact timeframe for the expected delivery of Fath-360 missiles to Russia but said it would be soon. They did not provide any intelligence on the status of the Abibal contract. A third intelligence source from another European agency said it had also received information that Russia had sent soldiers to Iran to train in the use of Iranian ballistic missile systems, without providing further details. Such training is standard practice for Iranian weapons supplied to Russia, said the third source, who also declined to be named because of the sensitivity of the information. A senior Iranian official, who requested anonymity, said Iran had sold missiles and drones to Russia but has not provided Fath-360 missiles. There was no legal prohibition on Tehran selling such weapons to Russia, the source added. "Iran and Russia engage in the mutual purchase of parts and military equipment. How each country uses this equipment is entirely their decision," the official said, adding that Iran did not sell weapons to Russia for use in the Ukraine war. As part of the military cooperation, Iranian and Russian officials often travelled between the two states, the official added.
"DESTABILIZING ACTIONS"
Until now, Iran's military support for Moscow has been limited mainly to unmanned Shahed attack drones, which carry a fraction of the explosives and are easier to shoot down because they are slower than ballistic missiles. Iran's semi-official Tasnim news agency said in July 2023 the system had been successfully tested by the country's Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) Ground Force. "Delivery of large numbers of short-range ballistic missiles from Iran to Russia would enable a further increase in pressure on already badly overstretched Ukrainian missile defence systems," said Justin Bronk, Senior Research Fellow for Air Power at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a London-based defence think-tank. "As ballistic threats, they could only be intercepted reliably by the upper tier of Ukrainian systems," he said, referring to the most sophisticated air defences Ukraine has such as the U.S.-made Patriot and European SAMP/T systems.
Ukraine's Ministry of Defense did not have immediate comment.
The NSC spokesman noted that Iran's newly elected President Masoud Pezeshkian "claimed he wanted to moderate Iran's policies and engage with the world. Destabilizing actions like this fly in the face of that rhetoric." U.N. Security Council restrictions on Iran's export of some missiles, drones and other technologies expired in October 2023. However, the United States and European Union retained sanctions on Iran's ballistic missile programme amid concerns over exports of weapons to its proxies in the Middle East and to Russia. Reuters reported in February on deepening military cooperation between Iran and Russia and on Moscow's interest in Iranian surface-to-surface missiles. Sources told the news agency at the time that around 400 Fateh-110 longer-range surface-to-surface ballistic missiles had been delivered. But the European intelligence sources told Reuters that according to their information, no transfer had happened yet. Ukrainian authorities have not publicly reported finding any Iranian missile remnants or debris during the war. Authorities in Kyiv did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Passenger plane crash in Brazil kills all 61 on board
AFP/August 09, 2024
VINHEDO, Brazil: An airplane carrying 57 passengers and four crew crashed Friday in Brazil’s Sao Paulo state, killing everyone on board, the airline said. The aircraft, an ATR 72-500 operated by Voepass airline, was traveling from Cascavel in southern Parana state to Sao Paulo’s Guarulhos international airport when it crashed in the city of Vinhedo. Voepass initially said the plane was carrying 58 passengers, but a statement later on the airline’s website revised the figure to 57. Images broadcast on local media showed a large plane spinning as it plummeted almost vertically, while other footage showed a large column of smoke rising from the crash site in what appeared to be a residential area. “There were no survivors,” the city government in Valinhos — which was involved in the rescue and recovery operation in nearby Vinhedo — said in an email sent to AFP.
Vinhedo, with about 76,000 residents, is located approximately 80 kilometers (50 miles) northwest of Sao Paulo. “The bodies are being taken to the morgue,” the Vinhedo city government told AFP. Before an official death toll was given, President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said during an event in Santa Catarina state that it appeared there were no survivors, and called for a moment of silence for the victims. In a statement, Voepass reported “an accident involving flight 2283.” The company said it was cooperating with authorities to “determine the causes of the accident,” while giving full assistance to victims’ families. The plane, a twin-engine turboprop, took off “without any flight restrictions, with all its systems operational,” the statement added. ATR, a Franco-Italian aircraft maker and Airbus subsidiary, said its experts were working to help investigators. Nathalie Cicari, who lives near the crash site, told CNN Brasil the impact was “terrifying.”“I was having lunch, I heard a very loud noise very close by,” she said, describing the sound as drone-like but “much louder.” “I went out on the balcony and saw the plane spinning. Within seconds, I realized that it was not a normal movement for a plane.”Cicari was not hurt but had to evacuate her house, which was filled with black smoke from the crash. “I arrived at the scene and saw many bodies on the ground — many of them,” another witness, Ricardo Rodrigues, told local Band News. Firefighters, military police and state civil defense were deployed at the scene. Military police on the ground told local media that the accident had not caused any additional casualties at the crash site, and that the fire sparked by the crash had been brought under control. The plane’s black box “has already been found, apparently preserved,” Sao Paulo state security official Guilherme Derrite told reporters at the scene. The doomed plane recorded its first flight in April 2010, according to the website planespotters.net. Air safety has improved dramatically in recent decades, with deadly passenger plane crashes becoming ever-more rare worldwide, though still more frequent in developing nations. In January 2023, another ATR 72 operated by Yeti Airlines crashed after stalling in Nepal, killing all 72 on board. Nepalese authorities attributed the incident to pilot error.

The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources on August 09-10/2024
Question: “Are all sins equal to God?”
GotQuestions.org/August 09/2024
Answer: All sin is a falling short of God’s glory (Romans 3:23). So there’s either righteousness or unrighteousness, and righteousness—perfection—is an absolute. Broadly speaking, all sins are equal to God in that all sins are by definition “unrighteous” and “imperfect.” All things less than holy share the quality of unholiness.
We can picture man’s efforts to attain righteousness as a group of people trying to jump a chasm. Some get a running start; some try to pole vault; others flap their arms on the way across—but none of them reach the other side. It doesn’t matter if they fall short by two inches, two yards, or two miles—they all plunge downward. In a similar way, all sins are equal to God; it doesn’t really matter how short we fall. We all fall.
Jesus indicated that, by their nature, all sins are equal to God. In His Sermon on the Mount, the Lord mentioned two “big” sins—murder and adultery—and equated them with unjustified anger and lustful thoughts (Matthew 5:21–22, 27–28). Anger, murder, lust, and adultery are all sins, and we need to take them all seriously.
Now that we’ve established the general rule that all sins are equal to God by nature, we can add some refinements. Although lust and adultery are both sinful, that does not mean they are equal in every respect. Having lust in one’s heart will have consequences in this world, but those consequences will not be as severe as committing the physical act of adultery. The same is true with harboring a grudge versus actually committing murder. Coveting has a lesser effect than thieving. Sin is sin, but not all sin bears the same penalties in this world. In that sense, some sins are worse than others.
Scripture singles out sexual sin as having worse consequences than other types of sin: “Flee from sexual immorality. All other sins a person commits are outside the body, but whoever sins sexually, sins against their own body” (1 Corinthians 6:18). In this passage, immorality is considered apart from other sins such as dishonesty, pride, envy, etc. All sin will negatively affect the mind and soul of a person, but sexual immorality will immediately and directly affect one’s body. The destruction wrought by sexual immorality will have a physical impact. The extended warning against sexual sin in Proverbs 6 contains this warning: “A man who commits adultery has no sense; whoever does so destroys himself” (verse 32).
All sins are equal to God in that any and every sin will keep one out of heaven. In the eternal state, the New Jerusalem will be inhabited by the righteous, the redeemed of the Lord. “Outside the city are the dogs—the sorcerers, the sexually immoral, the murderers, the idol worshipers, and all who love to live a lie” (Revelation 22:15, NLT; cf. 21:8). At the same time, even in the final judgment, there seem to be degrees of punishment among the “dogs”: “Someone who does not know [the master’s will], and then does something wrong, will be punished only lightly” (Luke 12:48, NLT). So not all sins carry the same weight of punishment in hell. There is one other way in which all sins are equal in God’s eyes: all sins, no matter how “big” or “small,” can be forgiven in Christ. Scripture says that “where sin increased, grace increased all the more” (Romans 5:20). No one can out-sin God’s grace. We are all equally sinful before God. But, in Christ, we are made righteous. We are “justified freely by his grace through the redemption that came by Christ Jesus. God presented Christ as a sacrifice of atonement, through the shedding of his blood” (Romans 3:24–25). By faith in Christ, we are born again and therefore victorious over sin: “Everyone born of God overcomes the world. This is the victory that has overcome the world, even our faith” (1 John 5:4).

'Just in Time' Defense Modernization: Will the United States Miss the Boat?
Peter Huessy and Stephen Blank/Gatestone Institute/August 09/2024
All four reports called for major new investments in US defense spending, completion of the current nuclear deterrent modernization effort, and also recommended, given the projected rise of military power by America's enemies, that the US add serious new nuclear capabilities to its deterrence.
The issue not addressed by all of the reports is: before the improvements in US defense capability are completed, will the US be able to successfully avoid conflicts with the new axis of China, Russia, Iran and North Korea?
All four studies emphasized that the time was late for US modernization and that the dangers are escalating.
All of the studies also proposed significant upgrades to the US deterrent capability, including nuclear, conventional, space, cyber and missile defense weaponry, and emphasized with the utmost urgency that modernization was needed now.
Modernization, unfortunately, is slow. The system has not achieved what then Secretary of Defense James Mattis explained in 2018 was the ability to buy weapons at "the speed of relevance" -- a capability that remains dangerously elusive...The timetables for the invasion of Ukraine, and the coordinated attacks on Israel, the potential invasions of Taiwan or the Republic of Korea, are in the heads of four dictators, Putin, Xi, Kim and Khamenei. They are not necessarily going to wait for the US to modernize its deterrent strength before striking.
With US deterrent strategy perceived as weak, there are serious concerns that US military modernization may not be completed in time, but only "outside the time-zone," as Zelikow notes, meaning after it was needed.
Without nuclear modernization of our long-range delivery vehicles, as Admiral Charles Richard, the former commander of Strategic Command, has emphasized, the US is out of the nuclear business.
Where Zelikow gets it right is in his proposals that the US also use its economic strength as a deterrent, particularly against China.... Success cannot be ensured, however, at the expense of de-emphasizing US military power. If the US fails to deter its enemies, and they are left to believe that, instead, the United States will deter itself from winning for fear of "escalation," the ground is set for major new conflicts, especially over the next few years when the United States may be poorly prepared to win. Four recent reports call for major new investments in US defense spending, completion of the current nuclear deterrent modernization effort, and also recommend, given the projected rise of military power by America's enemies, that the US add serious new nuclear capabilities to its deterrence. Pictured: An unarmed Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile launches during an operational test on August 2, 2017, at Vandenberg Air Force Base, California (Image source: U.S. Air Force) The US election in November 2024 may well determine the future direction of US national security strategy. In the past year, there has been a steady stream of thoughtful reports about what America's national security strategy should be. This is a discussion that will hopefully be taken up by the various campaigns of those seeking the presidency.
Four reports are particularly worth attention. They all assess in various detail the current and projected US nuclear posture as well as the nuclear threats the United States faces, especially compared to the situation of a decade and a half ago.
Two of the studies were mandated by Congress. The October 2023 report on the Strategic Posture of the United States and the July 2024 report on the National Defense Strategy of the United States.
The other two reports were both more narrowly focused on US nuclear capability. One was by Robert Peters of the Heritage Foundation, issued in July 2024, the "New American Nuclear Consensus." The other was "The Next Chapter in US Nuclear Policy" by Brad Roberts, the Director of the Center for Global Security Research Center of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.
All four reports called for major new investments in US defense spending, completion of the current nuclear deterrent modernization effort, and also recommended, given the projected rise of military power by America's enemies, that the US add serious new nuclear capabilities to its deterrence.
The issue not addressed by all of the reports is: before the improvements in US defense capability are completed, will the US be able to successfully avoid conflicts with the new axis of China, Russia, Iran and North Korea?
In "Confronting Another Axis? History, Humility, and Wishful Thinking" Hoover Institution fellow Philip Zelikow wrote for the Texas National Security Review an article which concludes that US defense modernization may be completed but only after the US is challenged by armed conflicts initiated by the four new axis members and/or their proxies. All four studies emphasized that the time was late for US modernization and that the dangers are escalating.
All of the studies also proposed significant upgrades to the US deterrent capability, including nuclear, conventional, space, cyber and missile defense weaponry, and emphasized with the utmost urgency that modernization was needed now.
The US however, will not acquire such nuclear and other capabilities for at least a decade, due to the current defense acquisition system of the US defense department, as Zelikow noted, Some near-term nuclear advances could be implemented sooner, such as acquiring the B61-13 earth-penetrating nuclear bomb, or adding nuclear warheads to America's existing force of ICBMs, SLBMs or strategic bombers. Such an effort might take as long as three to four years to complete. Modernization, unfortunately, is slow. The system has not achieved what then Secretary of Defense James Mattis explained in 2018 was the ability to buy weapons at "the speed of relevance" -- a capability that remains dangerously elusive, just as Zelikow warns.
The four main enemies of the US -- North Korea, Iran, China and Russia— Zelikow warns, have their own internal clocks. The timetables for the invasion of Ukraine, and the coordinated attacks on Israel, the potential invasions of Taiwan or the Republic of Korea, are in the heads of four dictators, Putin, Xi, Kim and Khamenei. They are not necessarily going to wait for the US to modernize its deterrent strength before striking. Whatever their current timetable, those internal clocks may also be suddenly reset. Soviet ruler Josef Stalin changed his mind late in the day about supporting North Korea's invasion of the Republic of Korea, as Zelikow notes, and the Japanese leadership decided to go to war in southeast Asia and Indochina only after seeing the Nazi success in seizing France in WWII.
Zelikow relates that these current axis leaders pay particular attention to world events and especially actions by the US that inform them of America's ability and willingness to defend its interests. A key factor is always whether the US is seen as having a credible will to use its deterrent, let alone having the necessary deterrent capability to begin with. Over a period of recent years, according to the military historian Victor Davis Hanson of the Hoover Institute, the US took actions that gave the impression of seeking to forgo conflict in the short-term interests of keeping the peace, but also mistakenly took off the table the threat of escalation as a means of winning a conflict, out of the fear of triggering a wider conflict, or a nuclear war.
The US, Hanson notes in a July 26 podcast, has made a series of moves that have, in the eyes of our enemies, undermined deterrence:
Embargoed arms to Ukraine after the 2014 Russian invasion, and in December 2021 had to take back the comment that "a minor incursion" by Russia into Ukraine might be acceptable: "I think what you're going to see is that Russia will be held accountable if it invades. And it depends on what it does. It's one thing if it's a minor incursion and then we end up having a fight about what to do and not do."
Withdrew from Afghanistan without requiring any quid quo pro from the Taliban, and ending in a tragic killing of American special forces while Afghani citizens, seeking to escape, died trying to hang onto US airplanes. The US also left behind billions in military hardware and a $96 million-dollar military airbase now presumably being used by China's People's Liberation Army (PLA), as well as the Taliban
Failed to challenge Chinese spy balloons roaming over key military installations in the US.
Failed to rebut accusatory allegations when senior US diplomats were repeatedly insulted by Chinese officials at an official meeting in Anchorage.
With US deterrent strategy perceived as weak, there are serious concerns that US military modernization may not be completed in time, but only "outside the time-zone," as Zelikow notes, meaning after it was needed.
Gordon Chang, a China expert and Gatestone Institute Distinguished Senior Fellow, has also expressed significant concern that America's military insufficiency, especially in the near future, needs urgent attention to move it front and center in a debate over America's future security policy.
The issue is particularly urgent given that members of this new "axis of evil" may decide at any time to widen their aggression. Zelikow and others stress that this belligerency is possible, most probably in the next few years. All four countries are now part of current wars against American allies, Ukraine and Israel.
Where Zelikow disappoints, however, unlike Chang, is in his implied opposition to the various calls for greater defense spending. Even assuming a more benign view of the world, the US defense strength is not now sufficient to credibly meet our current security obligations, as the two Congressionally-mandated reports referenced above unanimously concluded.
There is no doubt that US defense modernization is critically needed, especially in the nuclear area. Without nuclear modernization of our long-range delivery vehicles, as Admiral Charles Richard, the former commander of Strategic Command, has emphasized, the US is out of the nuclear business. The same point was also made July 29 at an event hosted by the National Institute for Deterrence Studies on Capitol Hill, in remarks by Jill Hruby, Under Secretary of Energy for Nuclear Security and head of the National Nuclear Security Administration, on the urgent need to rebuild US nuclear warheads.
Where Zelikow gets it right is in his proposals that the US also use its economic strength as a deterrent, particularly against China -- a point underscored by Institute of World Politics President Emeritus John Lenczowski in his recent essay on taking down China.
As part of an all-of-government approach to security, as highlighted in recent testimony by the chair and vice-chair of the National Defense Strategy Commission to the Senate Armed Service Committee, it makes great sense for the US to use its economic tools as a primary means of deterring the serious dangers presented by the new axis, and to do so aggressively to ensure US success. Success cannot be ensured, however, at the expense of de-emphasizing US military power. As the late Henry Kissinger wrote, "The attempt to separate diplomacy and power results in power lacking direction and diplomacy being deprived of incentives."
If the US fails to deter its enemies, and they are left to believe that, instead, the United States will deter itself from winning for fear of "escalation," the ground is set for major new conflicts, especially over the next few years when the United States may be poorly prepared to win.
*Peter Huessy is a Senior Fellow at the National Institute for Deterrent Studies and *Dr. Stephen Blank is a Senior Fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute.
© 2024 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

The Olympic ‘Trans’ Ceremony Exposed More than Hatred for Christianity
Raymond Ibrahim/The Stream/August 09/2024
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2024/08/133113/
Many have asked the same rhetorical question concerning the Olympics’ opening ceremony, which — by using a group of demonic- and clownish-looking transgender people to mock the Last Supper — went out of its way to spit on Christ, Christianity, and Christians.
After dismissing this “trans” ceremony as a “gross mockery” of a “very central moment in Christianity,” Bishop Robert Barron went on to articulate that question:
Would they ever have dared mock Islam in a similar way? Would they ever have dreamed of mocking in this gross, public way a scene from the Koran?
As the bishop went on to say, “We all know the answer to that question.” To be sure, never would “they” do such a thing as mock Islam or a scene from the Koran.
But was this, as so many seem to think, due to fear that some Muslim would retaliate by bombing whichever venue dares foist such a mockery?
While elements of fear are surely there, the main reason the group that is unsatisfactorily called “the Left” would never risk mocking, but rather does everything to flatter and enable Islam, is far more sinister. To the Left, Islam is the perfect ally against its true and most hated enemy: Christianity.
Open Hostility
Let us count the ways in which this is true:
First, of all world religions, only Islam is openly hostile to Christianity, with key scriptures condemning and calling for the abject subjugation of all Christians.
Koran 5:73 declares, “Infidels are they who say God is one of three,” a reference to the Christian Trinity. Koran 5:72 says, “Infidels are they who say God is the Christ, [Jesus] son of Mary.” Koran 9:30 complains that “the Christians say the Christ is the son of God … may Allah’s curse be upon them!”
The significance of these verses can only be understood when one understands the significance of the word translated here as “infidel,” kafir. The kafir — the disbeliever — is the mortal enemy of Allah and his prophet; Muslims are obligated to war on, kill, and subjugate him, whenever possible (Koran 9: 5; 9:29).
Check for the Left.
Most Obvious
Of course, while the Left counts on Islam’s hostility for Christianity, it also covers for it, hence why the Left is the chief fount from whence flow all apologetics for Islam. Put differently, the Left knows Islam hates Christianity and, wherever possible — such as throughout the Muslim world — persecutes Christians; but it also knows that the general public must be shielded from this fact so that Islam can exercise its hostility unhampered.
Second, Islamic hostility for Christianity regularly manifests itself in the sort of mockery and desecration of Christian symbols — churches, crucifixes, statues, and icons — that the Left delights in. Wherever Muslims make for large populations in the West — in France, Germany, Sweden, the UK, etc. — not a day goes by without a church being torched, a cross being broken, or a statue (usually of St. Mary) being beheaded.
Another check for the Left.
Indeed, the Left and Muslims appear to be neck-to-neck when it comes to which group is better at desecrating and mocking Christian symbols. In Canada, which is the Western Hemisphere’s epicenter of church burnings, Leftists own the lion’s share of attacks on churches. While Leftists and Satanist certainly do attack and torch churches in Western European nations as well, they are outstripped there by Muslims, who own the lion’s share.
This is especially the case in France, which just treated us to that repulsive opening ceremony of the Olympics. It has both Europe’s largest Muslim population, as well as the highest number of Europe’s most torched and desecrated churches (at least two per day). And, as recently seen, the French government and media — the Left’s twin arms — respond to this by lying about the facts and covering for the church-destroying Muslims.
An Unholy Alliance
The Left can and does cite Muslims as pretexts to cancel Christianity from the public square. Today, in those European cities with large Muslim populations, public displays of Christianity must be curtailed, lest (so the Left claims) they offend Muslims, or merely in celebration of “diversity” and “multiculturalism.” Examples are legion; just three days ago it was reported that “Montreal city hall replaces crucifix with hijab…”
Check.
Finally, and perhaps counterintuitively, Islam is actually rather lax when it comes to sexual mores, certainly in comparison to Christianity: pedophilia, polygamy — the sexual laxity and promiscuity cherished by the Left — are permitted in Islam (at least for men).
Check.
What about Islam’s more draconian elements? Surely the liberal Left doesn’t sponsor these? Actually, even some of these perfectly comport with the Left and its modus operandi. For example, and as discussed at more length here, neither Islam nor the Left can survive without constantly threatening the opposition about what they can and cannot say.
Despite all the above, no alliance is, of course, ever perfect, and the Left’s reliance on Islam as its staunch ally against Christianity sometimes backfires.
Last year, for instance, in Hamtramck, Michigan — the only Muslim majority city in the U.S. (for now) — its city council.
blocked the display of Pride flags on city property — action that has angered allies and members of the LGBTQ+ community, who feel that the support they provided the immigrant groups has been reciprocated with betrayal.
“We welcomed you,” former council member Catrina Stackpoole, a retired social worker who identifies as gay, recalls telling the council this summer. “We created nonprofits to help feed, clothe, find housing. We did everything we could to make your transition here easier, and this is how you repay us, by stabbing us in the back?”
These, of course, are small setbacks that come with the Left’s dalliance with Islam. That which is gained — a staunch and reliably anti-Christian ally — is by far worth the tradeoff.
In short, the real and greatest enemy of the Left is Christianity. And because the enemy of my enemy is my friend, the Left has taken Islam — Christianity’s “most formidable and persistent enemy” — under its wing as a sort of “foot soldier.”
If people are not fully understanding this unholy alliance, they are at least beginning to understand what and who the Left really is. As Bishop Barron went on to say, I think what’s interesting here is that this deeply secularist, post-modern society knows who its enemy is — they’re naming it — and we should believe them. They’re telling us who they are, and we should believe them.
Yes, the “deeply secularist, post-modern society” are they who despise, loath, and seek to do everything in their power to destroy “its enemy,” the one which “they’re naming” — Christ and His followers.
And one of their many strategies is to empower Islam in the West — not because they fear it, but because they want its formidable aid against that which they truly dread.

US ‘dual citizenship’ creates double standards. It should end
Ray Hanania/Arab News/August 09, 2024
Israel is waging a massive propaganda war not only against the Palestinians but also against the fundamental precepts of what it means to be a true American. Unfortunately, many Americans are so blinded by pro-Israel propaganda, and their politicians so inundated with pro-Israel money, that they cannot, or do not want, to see it. The foundation of Israel’s propaganda war is that killing Israelis is wrong, but killing of non-Israelis is not. The killing of Israelis by Hamas and the killing of non-Israelis by Israelis all falls on the shoulders of the Palestinians.
One way to do this is to inject “American patriotism” into the Israeli propaganda. And the Israelis do that by asserting that many Israelis killed in the violence are “Americans.”This assertion is based on the American and Israeli policy of “dual citizenship,” which is a contradiction of each country’s fundamental patriotism and loyalty laws.
But it works.
When a Hezbollah missile struck a Druze school in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, Americans were immediately outraged and accused Palestinians of being “inhuman.” The media blasted the stories across front pages and lead TV broadcasts, showcasing children and women who were killed.Many of the hostages held by Hamas are dual citizens. They quoted Israeli officials at length decrying the inhumanity of the Palestinians and going so far as to describe anyone who criticizes Israel, like the student protesters, as being “antisemitic” and “pro-Hamas.”
In stark contrast, when Israel’s military killed scores of civilians, women, and children who were in a “safe zone” near Rafah, a place where Israel’s military had ordered them to go, most Americans shrugged off the meager news media reporting as a consequence of war. The more Israel can claim Arabs hate Americans, the easier it is to sell the lies and propaganda to the American public and get the American news media to act as Israel’s cheerleaders. That is where “dual citizenship” comes in. Dual citizenship allows a person who has pledged his or her loyalty to America to also pledge their loyalty to a foreign country, such as Israel.
When Israeli-American “dual citizens” enjoy lands and property stolen by Israel from the Palestinians, they are “Israeli.” When these “dual citizens” are killed while serving in Israel’s military, they are described as “American.”
Many of the hostages held by Hamas are dual citizens who are both Israeli and American. But “dual citizenship” allows Israel, the news media, and politicians who receive millions in campaign donations from Israel’s political lobby, to blame it all on Hamas and Palestinians. What is “dual citizenship?” How can a person claim loyalty to two foreign countries? It is a contradiction of the term loyalty because you cannot be loyal to two countries that have different governments, foreign policies and citizenship laws. Every country requires a loyalty oath. Those born in the US are automatically citizens and a “loyalty oath” is implicit. Immigrants who seek American citizenship must take an oath. Immigrants who seek American citizenship must take an oath
Israelis who defend this contradictory policy exploit the fact that the US Constitution does not specifically address “dual citizenship” or loyalty because the American founding fathers believed the Constitution is a declaration of loyalty and allegiance. In 1940, however, the US government realized it had to address this loophole. At the start of the Second World War, and in the face of the large presence of American citizens who were of German, Italian and Japanese ancestry, American lawmakers feared those “Americans” might act to protect their ancestral homelands because of past loyalty and allegiance to their heritages. The US government feared they would betray America for Germany, Italy or Japan.
Thousands of Japanese, especially because they were not white European like Germans and Italians, were forced to live in internment camps. Few were permitted to serve in the military. African Americans were also restricted in their service, but for reasons of rampant white racism that plagued the US.
Ironically, “antisemitism” was greatest not in the Middle East, but in Europe and the US itself. When the war ended, the US and Europe did not want Jewish refugees from Nazism to settle in their countries. They supported sending those refugees elsewhere, to the Arab world and to Palestine. To address these post-war “loyalty” concerns, Congress adopted the Nationality Act in 1940 to prohibit any American from pledging allegiance or taking an oath of loyalty to a foreign country and to deal with immigrants from the Axis countries. The provision of the Nationality Act dealing with loyalty is titled, “Taking Oath of Allegiance to a Foreign State.”
That provision states that any person who is a national of the US, “whether by birth or naturalization,” is prohibited from swearing allegiance to a foreign country. It clearly and unambiguously mandates that an American citizen “shall lose his nationality by: (b) Taking an oath of making an affirmation or other formal declaration of allegiance to a foreign state.”
Section 2 of the Act (March 2, 1907) addresses immigrants who might support one of the foreign Axis countries. stating that if an American citizens “expatriates” themselves (leaves the country for citizenship in another country) shall lose their citizenship. It states “that any American citizen shall be deemed to have expatriated himself ... when he has taken an oath of allegiance to any foreign state.”
To prevent a mass emigration of Germans, Italians and Japanese, and to keep them under surveillance or in internment camps, it further mandated that “no American citizen shall be allowed to expatriate himself when his country is at war.”
The fact is that “dual citizenship,” where a person swears an oath of allegiance to a foreign country, contradicts what it means to be an American.
It is illegal. But, as I noted, Israelis are engaged in much worse illegal activity, such as war crimes, land theft and genocide, so that the illegality of “dual citizenship” is far down the list of American morality.
• Ray Hanania is an award-winning former Chicago City Hall political reporter and columnist. He can be reached on his personal website at www.Hanania.com. X: @RayHanania

Iran-Israel Conflict: The War between the Two Regional Powers
Abdulrahman Al-Rashed/Asharq Al-Awsat/August 09/2024
We are witnessing significant changes as a result of the ongoing conflict between the two regional powers, Iran and Israel, which has been escalating since last October. We are in an advanced stage of the conflict, with both sides defending their positions and attempting to exploit the crisis to weaken the other.
In these confrontations, Israel has emerged as more powerful and aggressive on all fronts, seemingly indifferent to the potential risks. The assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the chief negotiator for Hamas, in an act that violates even the norms between warring enemies, is an example of this, as it was carried out on Iranian soil on the first day of the new president’s term. Israel also destroyed the Iranian consulate in Damascus and killed a commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) abroad, actions that also violate international law, though Israel insists the building was not under diplomatic immunity. This is in addition to the ongoing daily military operations in Gaza, resulting in unprecedented levels of killing and destruction.
Why does Israel present itself as more powerful, bold, and ruthless? Netanyahu explained in an interview with Time magazine that the primary and most important reason is the restoration of Israeli deterrence.
Israel has launched direct attacks on the heart of Iran, abandoning decades of the prevailing regional warfare strategy, which was limited to skirmishes with Tehran’s regional proxies. Simultaneously, its attacks on these proxies have become more violent; Israel has crippled Yemen’s Hodeidah port, almost the only one available to the Houthis, setting fire to dozens of oil tankers and destroying cargo cranes there.
Against Hezbollah, Israel has assassinated its most prominent leaders in operations demonstrating its technical and intelligence superiority, and it has also eliminated a full cadre of Hamas leaders in Beirut, Tehran, and Gaza itself.
The final point is Netanyahu’s ability to maintain his leadership despite heavy losses; the number of Israeli soldiers killed in Gaza now surpasses Israel’s losses in the 1967 War, the War of Attrition, and the 1973 War combined, yet he still enjoys overwhelming popular support in Israel.
Israel’s new policy is one of excessive force, limitless revenge, and reckless bravery that could ignite a wide regional war.
The logical explanation for these changes and behavior is the October 7 attack, which Israel viewed as an existential threat, and its current battles aim to restore its influence and image. In truth, the existential fear didn’t originate from that moment alone, but from years of successful Iranian encroachment that has now surrounded Israel – from the east with Iraq, from the north with Syria and Lebanon, from within with Hamas in Gaza and parts of the West Bank, and the Houthis in the far south. The large-scale October attack can be seen as a natural outcome of Hamas’s confidence in Iran’s growing power.
The current war will pause temporarily for a few years, but with the continued pressure from the Iranian encirclement, Israel’s options will become tougher – either direct war with the master in Tehran or making significant regional concessions to him, with the understanding that nuclear weapons are only usable in a total destructive war, or if Iranian forces reach the gates of Jerusalem, all of which are unrealistic scenarios.
Washington is pressing Bibi Netanyahu to accept ending the Gaza war, but he continues to stall, aiming to extend the conflict for a full year, marking the anniversary of the Hamas attack, which is just two months away. If Iran and Hezbollah launch their expected retaliatory attack on Israel, the crisis may accelerate towards a political solution rather than the opposite, because both Israel and Iran understand the dangers of escalation, which began like a slow tennis match and has grown as attacks are exchanged.
The war was initially contained regionally, but now Russia has entered the fray, providing Iran with defensive weapons this week to “protect” Iran against Israel’s superior air power, with a suggestion from Putin to execute a “restrained response” against Israel, “avoiding civilian casualties.” This effectively announces Russia’s involvement, just as it did in the Syrian war. Russia has different objectives; it is neither with Iran nor against Israel. Russia seeks to expand crises in East Asia, the Middle East, and Africa to pressure Washington to halt the war in Ukraine. With these new developments – the American Iron Dome in Israel and Russian missiles in Iran – the balance of power returns, highlighting the need for a peaceful solution to avoid the risks of escalation and deadly errors in military operations that could lead to a full-scale regional war.

Iran: A Grin and Bear it Game?
Amir Taheri/Asharq Al-Awsat/August 09/2024
"Today he is the bravest, the wisest and the most popular leader of the Resistance Front." This is how the daily Kayhan spoke of guess who.
Wrong guess.
The daily's editorialists are notorious for their exaggerated praise of the "Supreme Guide" Ali Khamenei. But this time it was not Khamenei they had in mind. Believe it or not, it was Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of the Lebanese branch of Hezbollah was thus being accoladed beyond his wildest dreams. You may wonder why...Until recently the Tehran media treated Nasrallah as something of an Iranian satrap in Beirut. Each time he came to Tehran he was reported to have asked for an audience with the Great Leader to offer a report on his satrapy.
So, what's happening?
The short answer is that the ayatollah is in a conundrum. The assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran has been a great humiliation for a regime that claims to be the new superpower that is making America "tremble like an autumn leaf". But what to do?
A repeat of the recent comedy of launching 400 flying objects against Israel while making sure none reaches a target would be one hoax too many even from a master of all hoaxes. Doing nothing is also an option for a regime inebriated with fake activism. It wasn't such a long time ago that the ayatollah claimed that his message was conquering the whole world including Belgium where its "young people" sent him a love letter to announce readiness for martyrdom.
Actually, launching a real attack may offer initial satisfaction. But the question: then what? cannot be dismissed
The ayatollah knows better than anyone else that his Islamic Republic isn't in any shape for a serious classical war.
To start with there is zero popular support for dragging Iran into a war which former Foreign Minister Muhammad-Javad Zarif, now brought in from the cold, says "has nothing to do with us."
Next, any war with Israel would come in the shape of air attacks by warplanes, drones and missiles. As Iran has now an air force worth speaking of Israel would have the advantage of pick-and-hit targets. Iran is 88 times the size of Israel and being unable to protect its skies would be a sitting duck.
Israel, by contrast, has a small air space to secure which it does with its Iron Dome system and support from 12 allies in the region and beyond.
Even if the ayatollah manages to kill many Israelis and Palestinians in an initial raid he risks putting his whole regime at risk.
Exposed as a big talker and small achiever he could face an internal popular uprising that might wish to seek a different way of life,
Khamenei knows that, and yellow being his favorite color he is trying to step back from the brink with a minimum loss of face.
This is how he is trying to do it. First, he lowers his profile. Unlike the usual routine in which he gives a running commentary on every event under the sun, he has left the talking to two dozen clerical, military and political cherubins making blood-curdling threats. Next, he has changed the mise-en-scene of his public appearances. Until now, he would always appear alone entering a mosque or a lecture hall, sometimes followed by scores of hangers-on from a distance. Recently, however, he is shown walking alongside other officials as a group including the new President Masude Pezeshkian who was also allowed to stand next to him in the mourning prayers for Haniyeh. The message is that we are moving towards collective leadership and, if there is a humble pie to eat, everyone at the banquet shall get a portion.
Next his propaganda machine started talking of something called " The High Council of Islamic Resistance" the first-ever session of which was attended by leaders and representatives of most of the militias funded by Tehran including Hezbollah, Hamas, Hashd al-Shaabi, Houthis, Islamic Jihad who had come to Tehran to attend Pezeshkian's inauguration.
According to Tehran sources Khameeni has asked his special adviser Ali Aikbar Velayati to develop the gathering into a periodical one charged with " coordinating" resistance operations against the "Zionist enemy".In other words, the big boss is recruiting accomplices who may get a share of the credit if things go well but would receive a portion of the blame if they do not. Khamenei is also seeking accomplices abroad. Tehran has just hosted Gen. Sergey Shoyugu, Russia's chief of security who delivered a message of restraint from President Vladimir Putin.
Tehran media also claim that China and half a dozen Muslim nations have begged the "Supreme Guide" to play any scherzo moderato. According to reports Tehran has also sent a message to US President Joe Biden assuring him that any Iranian attack on Israel would be designed to do minimum damage. In exchange, Tehan wants a US guarantee that Israel will not retaliate. The text of the Iranian letter first appeared on the site of the Islamic Republic embassy in Bern. Switzerland is the contact country between Tehran and Washington and was supposed to pass on the letter. All that is bad news for the various "resistance" outfits that are invited to take their own decisions individually or collectively and no longer counting on automatic intervention by Tehran in case they are attacked.
Being elevated as the bravest leader of "Resistance" Nasrallah may find himself in deep water without the ayatollah throwing a buoy. Pretending that other "resistance" groups have a mind of their own could encourage Israel to go for a Tennessee bird shoot strategy by taking out the laggard in a flight of birds and then proceeding to take out those ahead one after another until the leader is reached.
Khamenei's new shying-off tactic could give Israel the chance to follow the destruction of Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza with the crippling of the Houthis, the next laggard. That could be followed by "downgrading" the laggards in Iraq, with tacit support from the Iraqi regular army and Israel's allies inside Iraq. That would put Hezbollah next in line for downgrading. All that, of course, is speculation. But the fact is that anyone who thinks Khamenei would risk his own skin for Hamas, Islamic Jihad, Houthis, Hashd and Hezbollah needs to have his head examined.

Four Scenarios for The Day After in Gaza
Dr. Nassif Hitti/Asharq Al-Awsat/August 09/2024
The Palestinian struggle is at the forefront of the regional priorities agenda after a years-long absence that resulted from the need to put out the many other fires that have broken out. The Palestinian question has now become the most pressing and volatile concern in the region following Israel's genocidal war on Gaza. The war gave rise to a temporally and spatially open-ended conflict, as a new element has been added to the struggle: the "unity of arenas" strategy. As a result, the geography of the war has been gradually expanding, and the nature of the conflict has changed. The October War (Yom Kippur War), the last of the Arab-Israeli wars, was confined to neighboring countries directly involved. After that, we saw "asymmetric" wars between an occupying power and resistance movements, whether in Palestine or Lebanon.
With the war on Gaza, the conflict has further transformed again. It is now a conflict between an occupying state on one side, and on the other, a coalition of factions and forces supporting the resistance in the occupied territories. This shift was made in the name of transnational ideological and identitarian solidarity, and it is an operational strategy that some have turned into a key card play in the "game of nations" underway in the region.
What scenarios could await us once the "day after" arrives?
First scenario: A protracted war of attrition that remains chronologically open-ended amid efforts to contain it geographically, as well as to prevent it from escalating into a full-blown regional war that would threaten the stability and security of the Middle East and “reshuffle the cards” in the region. One segment of this scenario would be an agreement among the "three influential parties" to contain the conflict, both geographically and in terms of the nature of attacks, as they work to gradually de-intensity the conflict until the war ends altogether.
This scenario would involve temporary ceasefires whose sustainability would hinge on the achievement of certain goals that Israel has reiterated on a daily basis. These goals include the release of prisoners, total Israeli security and military control over the Gaza Strip, and allowing a political authority formed in partnership between the Palestinians, Arabs, and international actors to administer Gaza through a predetermined framework. However, this scenario is practically impossible, as it would essentially legitimize the reoccupation of Gaza at no cost to Israel.
Second scenario: The region slides into an open war that reshuffles the cards. Ending such a war would require a "grand bargain" among the key regional and international actors involved. However, such a bargain would not lead to a stable and sustained settlement, as it does not address the root causes of the conflict: the perpetuation and consolidation of the occupation. So long as these root causes are not addressed, the likelihood of hostilities resuming in a different form would remain high.Third scenario: Israel continues its overt attempts (through the increasing Judaization of the West Bank—both geographically and demographically) to establish Greater Israel. This remains the Israelis’ explicitly stated strategic and ideological goal, as reflected by Israel’s policies amid the social and political hegemony of religious and traditional right-wing factions. Implicitly, the other side of the coin, here, is the revival of the so-called "Jordanian option." Various "soft" approaches to creating this link between the West Bank and Jordan are already being discussed. It goes without saying that the Jordanians and Palestinians clearly and firmly reject this idea.
Fourth scenario: The "realistic" way this war ends is through a Security Council resolution for a permanent ceasefire, rather than the frameworks for a partial or conditional truce laid out in current proposals. The Security Council was established to maintain global peace, security, and stability, as well as ensure the peaceful resolution of conflicts. Doing so requires taking this path: taking the decisions and exerting the pressure needed to ensure Israel's compliance, which is in the interests of all the parties involved, both within the region and beyond.
After that, an international conference attended by the key international actors would be held to revive the peace process and oversee and support its implementation within the framework of relevant UN Resolutions and international law, leading to a two-state solution. There are several impediments to reaching the two-state solution, most of them coming from Israel. Nonetheless, it remains the only legal, internationally recognized, moral, and realistic path to achieving comprehensive, just, and lasting peace. The other options we mentioned are temporary solutions that essentially buy us time but further complicate the path toward a solution. These kinds of stop-gap measures would perpetuate the conflict and lead to its resumption in new forms by different parties.
To sum up, achieving these partial solutions is relatively easy. However, they can only create temporary calm, kicking the can down the road at great cost without creating real peace. On the other hand, the two-state solution and an end to the occupation, while difficult (indeed, extremely difficult) to achieve given the current circumstances, remains the only solution that can- if the conditions we mentioned are met, which is more than possible- lead to a comprehensive, just, and lasting peace. It would open a new chapter in the region, creating new priorities and state-relation patterns.