Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on April 23-24/2024
You are invited to watch a film about the life of Blessed Brother Estephan Nehme, the Lebanese Maronite monk, on April 24, 25, 27
Reports: Hochstein to visit Beirut as Paris seeks to spare Lebanon war
Southern Lebanon: Increased Tensions after the Killing of Hezbollah Officials
Two civilians, including a child, killed in Israeli airstrike on a home in South Lebanon
An Israeli Strike Kills a Hezbollah Air Defense Unit Operative
Hezbollah targets bases near Akka after member's killing in Zahrani strike
Lebanon's presidential stalemate remains: Quintet Ambassadors report to Berri
Quintet: No President in the Foreseeable Future!
Quintet meets Berri as presidential void drags on
Berri: All efforts must be focused on finalizing presidential juncture
Ministers discuss refugee crisis at Grand Serail
European Commissioner Várhelyi meets Berri, Mikati in Beirut
Yasmina Zaytoun's MBC debut on 'Sabah El Kheir Ya Arab': A catalyst for redefining beauty pageants in the Arab world
US lawsuit raises stakes for Lebanon's financial institutions
E-governance: Lebanon's Economy Ministry launches online services to expedite procedures
Displaced Syrians: Lebanon Seeking Repatriation of Prisoners
Municipal Elections: Controversial Parliamentary Session in the Loop
No Elections Before Late 2024?
Baissari to Hold Talks With Damascus on Displaced Syrians
Lebanon: Bassil Eliminates Bou Saab from FPM after Differences over Presidency
Netanyahu set to pivot Israel’s focus to Hezbollah/Osama Al-Sharif/Arab News/April 23/2024
Understanding Israel-Hezbollah Clashes Since October 7/Ahmad Sharawi/The National Interest/April 23/2024

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on April 23-24/2024
Iran threatens to annihilate Israel should it launch a major attack
Iran's Israel strike coincided with crackdown on dissent at home, activists say Parisa Hafezi
Head of UN agency for Palestinians urges probe into staff killings
'An Israeli-style Wagner Group': The Israeli ultra-Orthodox military unit in Washington’s crosshairs
Israel's strike on Iran: limited hit, major message
Israel Intensifies Strikes across Gaza, Orders New Evacuations in North
UN Rights Chief 'Horrified' by Mass Grave Reports at Gaza Hospitals
Israeli Forces Kill Palestinian Man During West Bank Raid
Failed Rocket Strike Launched on US-led Coalition Forces Base in Syria
Blast at Iraq’s PMF base caused by explosion in ammunition storage: State media
US forces in Iraq, Syria attacked twice in under 24 hours
Sudan military downs drones targeting its HQ in Shendi, say army sources
Russian deputy defense minister detained on suspicion of corruption
Pro-Palestinian protests sweep US colleges after Columbia mass arrests

Titles For The Latest English LCCC  analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources on April 23-24/2024
Iran, next time, the target could be your nuclear sites/Jacob Nagel/The Jerusalem Post/April 23/2024
Many Culprits Behind Rise of Antisemitism, Including the Media/Howard Levitt/Gatestone Institute/April 23/2024
Israel Embraced, Israel Encircled/Sam Menassa/Asharq Al-Awsat/April 23/2024
The Middle East Between the American Root and the Iranian and Israeli Branches/Eyad Abu Shakra/Asharq Al-Awsat/April 23/2024
Is the Internet the Enemy of Progress?/The New York Times/April 23/2024
The US and the Erosion of the Two-State Solution/Nabil Amr/Asharq Al-Awsat/April 23/2024
Concerted US-French Efforts to Temper Regional Fires/Philippe Abi-Akl/This is Beirut/April 23/2024

Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on April 23-24/2024
You are invited to watch a film about the life of Blessed Brother Estephan Nehme, the Lebanese Maronite monk, on April 24, 25, 27
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/128930/128930/
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Reports: Hochstein to visit Beirut as Paris seeks to spare Lebanon war
Naharnet/April 23/2024
U.S. mediator Amos Hochstein will arrive in Beirut on a previously unannounced visit and it seems that the trip is linked to the meetings on Lebanon that were held Friday at the Elysee Palace, prominent parliamentary sources said. “It also comes against the backdrop of French President Emmanuel Macron’s continuation of his endeavor to spare Lebanon a broad war,” the sources told the Nidaa al-Watan newspaper in remarks published Tuesday. Macron had stressed Monday to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that he wants to avoid “a deterioration of the situation in the Middle East,” the French presidency said. Macron is also seeking a de-escalation on the Blue Line between Israel and Lebanon, the Elysee added. Diplomatic sources meanwhile told the daily that Hochstein’s expected visit is “in harmony with the French initiative.”“The U.S. mediator will carry proposals that might contribute to defusing tensions in the south, including a settlement for the pending points in the land border demarcation between Lebanon and Israel,” the sources added. “The meetings that the French president has held in Paris with caretaker PM Najib Mikat and Army chief General Joseph Aoun were the ‘last chance’ meetings,” the sources warned. “Paris is seeking a settlement that would spare Lebanon war through UNIFIL and the Lebanese Army,” the sources added, noting that Paris would not have launched such an initiative “had it not received information that Israel is determined to enter into Rafah and to address the Lebanese problem related to the border area where Hezbollah’s weapons exist.”

Southern Lebanon: Increased Tensions after the Killing of Hezbollah Officials
This Is Beirut/April 23/2024
The southern Lebanese borders witnessed on Tuesday afternoon increased tensions after the killing of two Hezbollah officials, one killed by the Israeli Army on Monday night and the other on Tuesday morning. Hezbollah claimed responsibility of a drone attack on the headquarters of the Golani brigade and the Egoz (621) unit in the northern Israeli coastal town of Acre. The pro-Iranian formation also declared targeting a gathering of Israeli soldiers in the Al-Assi position. Earlier this morning, they published a video showing an operation targeting Israeli Army spy equipment in the Wazzani and Hanita regions.
For its part, the Israeli Army carried out raids against the villages of Hounin, Hula, and Aita al-Shaab, also shelling Alma al-Shaab and Hanine.This morning, the outskirts of Tyre, Tayr Harfa, and Alma al-Shaab, were targets for Israeli artillery, while spy drones flew over villages in the western and central sectors, in addition to Tyre and Bint Jbeil districts. Israeli Army spokesperson, Avichay Adraee, announced on his X account that the air force intercepted “two suspicious objects over territorial waters in the north of the country.”“Alarm sirens have been activated,” he added. Tuesday morning, an engineer in Hezbollah’s air defense unit, Hussein Ali Azkoul, was killed in an Israeli drone-raid that targeted his car on the Abou el-Assouad road, near Adloun, in the caza of Tyre. It was not until midday that Hezbollah revealed the identity of the victim of the morning raid. Avichay Adraee, who had announced earlier in the morning that a high-ranking member of Hezbollah’s air defense unit had been killed in the raid, but without giving a name, subsequently stated on his X account that the Israeli air force had killed two members of the pro-Iranian group. According to him, the second was Sajed Sarafand, a member of the “Radwan” forces, killed on Monday night in the Arzoun region. Adraee also stated that Israeli fighter jets had attacked a military building belonging to the Hezb in Yaroun and four others of its infrastructures on Monday night.

Two civilians, including a child, killed in Israeli airstrike on a home in South Lebanon
AFP/April 23/2024
Two civilians from the same family, including a child, were killed in an airstrike targeting a home in South Lebanon on Tuesday, according to what a source in the Lebanese Civil Defense told AFP.The official National News Agency reported the same toll, noting that six other people were injured in the "hostile airstrike on a home in Hanine."

An Israeli Strike Kills a Hezbollah Air Defense Unit Operative
Asharq Al Awsat/April 23/2024
An Israeli airstrike on a car in southern Lebanon on Tuesday killed a Hezbollah official. The Israeli military said in a statement that it had killed Hussein Ali Azqul in the strike and described him as a “significant” operative in Hezbollah’s aerial defense unit. Hezbollah confirmed in a statement that Azqul had been killed. State media and witnesses said the strike happened in the area of Adloun, between the coastal cities of Sidon and Tyre, about 40 kilometers (25 miles) north of the border with Israel. The Lebanese militant group Hezbollah and allied groups have been clashing with Israeli forces along the border for more than six months against the backdrop of Israel’s war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Israel has regularly carried out targeted killings of Hezbollah and Hamas members in Lebanon, sometimes in areas far from the border.

Hezbollah targets bases near Akka after member's killing in Zahrani strike
Naharnet/April 23/2024
Hezbollah waged Tuesday a combined drone attack with decoy and suicide drones on a command center near the occupied city of Akka. Hezbollah said the air attack was in response to the killing of a Hezbollah fighter in Adloun and that the drones hit two Israeli bases in the Shraga barracks north of Akka. An Israeli drone had targeted on Tuesday morning a car near the southern coastal town of Aadloun deep inside Lebanon in the al-Zahrani region, killing a Hezbollah member. A source close to Hezbollah said the strike killed an engineer attached to the group's air defense forces as he was travelling in a vehicle.
Hezbollah announced the death of Hussein Azqoul "on the road to Jerusalem" -- the phrase used for fighters killed by Israel. The Israeli army said Azqoul was a key member in the air defense unit. The strike hit the Abu al-Aswad region between the coastal cities of Tyre and Sidon, about 40 kilometers from the border. Israeli artillery meanwhile shelled the outskirts of Tayr Harfa and Alma al-Shaab. Israeli warplanes had carried out overnight nine airstrikes on al-Jabbour, Jabal Abu Rashed, Yaroun and al-Aishiyeh. Hezbollah has recently intensified its attacks on Israel military targets across the border. On Monday, it fired "dozens" of Katyusha rockets at an army headquarters in northern Israel in response to Israeli attacks on "southern villages and civilian homes", most recently in Srifa, Odaisseh and Rob Tlatin. The strike on Srifa killed another Hezbollah member, Mohammad Atiyeh. The Israeli army said Atiyeh was also a key member in the Radwan air unit. On Sunday evening, Hezbollah shot down an Israeli Hermes 450 drone, the fourth to be brought down since the war began. Hezbollah also targeted Tuesday a group of soldiers in the al-Assi post, while Israeli warplanes struck the southern border towns of Houla and Aita al-Shaab and the outskirts of Markaba. Since Hamas's unprecedented October 7 attack on Israel triggered war in Gaza, there have been near-daily cross-border exchanges of fire between the Israeli army and Iran-backed Hezbollah. Since October 7 at least 378 people have been killed in Lebanon, mostly Hezbollah fighters but also 70 civilians, according to an AFP tally. Israel says 11 soldiers and eight civilians have been killed on its side of the border.

Lebanon's presidential stalemate remains: Quintet Ambassadors report to Berri
LBCI/April 23/2024
The Quintet Ambassadors concluded a series of meetings with Lebanese political forces, delivering their findings to Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri. The discussions centered on resolving the presidential vacancy, as efforts continue to elect a head of state. A significant aspect of these inquiries revealed that major blocs, particularly the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) and the Kataeb Party, did not outright reject dialogue. Instead, their consent was contingent upon guaranteed assurances. They demanded that any dialogue must lead to the Parliament's convening and holding a session to elect a president, either by consensus or, in the event of disagreement, Speaker Berri would ensure the quorum remains intact, allowing consecutive sessions until a president is elected by a required majority. Egypt's ambassador, Alaa Moussa, emphasized the importance of achieving consensus through dialogue. He stated, "The dialogue or discussions should lead to a consensus. A parliamentary session should be held with a full quorum." Following their discussions at Ain el-Tineh, the ambassadors concluded their visit, signaling that it would not be their last. The answers and clarifications they withheld will be conveyed to relevant blocs and forces in another round of consultations. It is noteworthy that during the ambassadors' meetings, particularly with the Lebanese Forces, their leader conveyed his conviction that the Amal-Hezbollah duo's wants their candidate, indicating their willingness to persist in obstructing institutions. Consequently, Samir Geagea did not pose any questions or inquiries to the ambassadors. Instead, he reaffirmed the rejection of dialogue for the sake of dialogue and the insistence on obstruction.

Quintet: No President in the Foreseeable Future!
Bassam Abou Zeid/This is Beirut/April 23/2024
Seemingly, no positive sign regarding the potential for successive sessions to elect a president of the Republic ensued from the meeting of the Quintet ambassadors (USA, France, Egypt, Qatar and Saudi Arabia) with the Speaker of the House, Nabih Berri. Furthermore, Berri did not convey any clear answer regarding the possibility of a dialogue session or any consultations that won’t be under his direct leadership. Most importantly, the Quintet ambassadors did not detect any willingness from the Shiite duo Amal-Hezbollah to give up their candidate, Sleiman Frangieh, leader of the Marada Movement. One of the ambassadors believes that for the Shiite duo, the time to elect a president isn’t favorable yet. On the surface, the Speaker of the House seemed cooperative with the Quintet’s ambassadors, conveying his wish to see a president elected as soon as possible. However, for him, this issue hinges first and foremost on securing a consensus. Berri promptly addressed the ambassadors’ questions and clarifications regarding his initiative related to the election of a president of the Republic. However, the Quintet’s answers are more than clear. The committee’s members assured the Speaker of the House that they were about to begin a second phase, emphasizing the need to expedite the election of a president. They stressed that the risks surrounding Lebanon are increasing, and there may be crucial impending obligations. In this regard, and in the absence of a president, the international community will object to Lebanon’s participation in any dossier. In this context, the information suggests that the ambassadors will convey to the key Lebanese parties the responses they received from Nabih Berri, albeit not definitive ones. However, they will attempt to secure an agreement from the opposition forces on dialogue sessions within a limited timeframe. This will serve as leverage to exert pressure on Berri and Hezbollah, aiming for compromises regarding the leadership of the dialogue and an open session for the election of a president. Despite being aware of the complexity of this move, the ambassadors are fully aware that Hezbollah will not accept being viewed as having backed down, risking a situation that may not lead to the election of Sleiman Frangieh.

Quintet meets Berri as presidential void drags on
Naharnet/April 23/2024
Four ambassadors of the five-nation group for Lebanon met Tuesday with Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, after a series of meetings with politicians and leaders in Beirut in an attempt to break the presidential impasse in Lebanon. The ambassadors of Egypt, France, KSA, and Qatar and the Chargé d'Affaires at the U.S. embassy in Beirut briefed Berri on the results of their meetings.The quintet's ambassadors had met this week with Marada leader Suleiman Franjieh, Kataeb leader Sami Gemayel, Free Patriotic Movement leader Jebran Bassil, the National Moderation bloc MPs, and Hezbollah's Loyalty to Resistance bloc. Crisis-hit Lebanon has been without a president since Michel Aoun's term ended in October 2022, with neither of the two main blocs -- Hezbollah and its opponents -- having the majority required to elect one. The international community and the five-nation group have long urged Lebanese leaders to end months of political wrangling and stem the financial meltdown. Egyptian Ambassador Alaa Moussa said the meeting with Berri was "positive" and that there will be more consultations in the coming days with the parliamentary blocs.A report published Monday in the Nidaa al-Watan newspaper had claimed that the five-nation group intends to pressure Berri to end the protracted presidential vacuum by setting a timeframe for holding the presidential vote.

Berri: All efforts must be focused on finalizing presidential juncture
Naharnet/April 23/2024
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri has stressed that “all efforts must be focused on finalizing the presidential juncture as soon as possible.”As for remarks by some about serious efforts to wrap up the presidential file by May at the latest, Berri told al-Joumhouria newspaper that “what’s needed is the election of a president -- yesterday rather than today and today rather than tomorrow.” Asked whether a visit abroad by him could lead to a presidential solution, Berri said: “In this case, and if I see serious efforts and solutions and positive results, I will go anywhere, even on foot!”

Ministers discuss refugee crisis at Grand Serail
Naharnet/April 23/2024
Ministers met Tuesday at the Grand Serail in a ministerial, judicial and security meeting to discuss the Syrian refugee crisis.The killing of Lebanese Forces Jbeil coordinator Pascal Sleiman earlier this month by a Syrian gang has triggered a backlash against Syrian refugees. Lebanese politicians and religious leaders urged Lebanese to show restraint, as hundreds of residents blocked roads in Byblos and footage circulated on social media of violence against Syrians -- many of them refugees from their country's more than decade-old civil war. The tiny Mediterranean country of over 6 million people, including refugees, hosts what the U.N. refugee agency says are nearly 785,000 U.N.-registered Syrian refugees, of which 90% rely on aid to survive. Lebanese officials estimate the actual number could be as high as 1.5 or 2 million. Caretaker interior minister Bassam Mawlawi had earlier said that 35% of detainees in Lebanon’s prisons are Syrian nationals, emphasizing the need to strictly enforce Lebanese laws on displaced Syrians. "The Syrian presence in Lebanon must be limited," he said.

European Commissioner Várhelyi meets Berri, Mikati in Beirut
Naharnet/April 23/2024
European Commissioner for Neighbourhood and Enlargement Olivér Várhelyi has met in Beirut with Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri and Prime Minister Najib Mikati. Várhelyi also met Monday with Minister of Foreign Affairs Abdallah Bou Habib, and the Commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces Joseph Aoun.The Commissioner’s mission aimed to lay the groundwork for restarting dialogue and identify areas of reinforced cooperation, the Delegation of the European Union to Lebanon said in a statement. Várhelyi's visit to Beirut followed a meeting of the European Council last week, where the European leaders recalled the European Union's strong support for Lebanon and the Lebanese people "in the difficult circumstances the country is experiencing domestically and due to regional tensions."

Yasmina Zaytoun's MBC debut on 'Sabah El Kheir Ya Arab': A catalyst for redefining beauty pageants in the Arab world
LBCI/April 23/2024
On MBC's "Sabah El Kheir Ya Arab" program, Yasmina Zaytoun made her first television appearance after her recent triumph, being crowned the first runner-up and Miss Asia and Oceania at the Miss World pageant. During the interview, Miss Lebanon's Yasmina Zaytoun, who hails from a conservative family in South Lebanon, expressed how her family, especially her father, supported her participation in the Miss Lebanon competition. She stressed that beauty pageants are no longer mere beauty contests, as they are now platforms showcasing empowerment, diversity, intelligence, and leadership. Yasmina also addressed the stereotypes often associated with beauty queens, stressing that these competitions are not just about physical beauty. She highlighted her involvement with a food bank initiative, driven by the need to address food shortages in many Lebanese households, especially following the Beirut Port explosion and the repercussions of the economic crisis. Yasmina's main goal is to change the stereotypical view of beauty pageants around the world, especially in the Arab world. Additionally, she is keen on promoting this new perspective. She encouraged young women to focus on their personal growth and goals rather than just external beauty, which is fleeting, whereas the contributions they make are enduring.

US lawsuit raises stakes for Lebanon's financial institutions
LBCI/April 23/2024
The Lebanese banking sector finds itself under legal scrutiny, albeit not within Lebanon's borders. For almost a week now, a group of Lebanese citizens has lodged a lawsuit in the United States against Banque du Liban (BDL), its former governor Riad Salameh, several Lebanese banks, and international auditing firms responsible for auditing these banks' accounts. The accusation revolves around alleged fraud against depositors by manipulating financial system integrity information in the country and deceiving them into believing they could access their deposits. This collective lawsuit, known in the US as a Class Action, typically carries more weight than individual lawsuits and awaits referral to the competent US judiciary. However, this lawsuit has deeply unsettled Lebanese banks. According to stakeholders: Firstly, lawsuits abroad could further tarnish the reputation of the banking sector, threatening to strain relationships with correspondent banks abroad through which all banking transactions, including remittances and imports, are conducted. Secondly, including BDL as a defendant in the lawsuit is erroneous, as the institution belongs to the state and owns assets for all Lebanese, not just depositors. Thirdly, affluent depositors are spearheading these lawsuits, and if successful, they could deplete what remains of the sector's funds, especially for small depositors. According to a delegation from the Association of Banks in Lebanon, addressing Prime Minister Najib Mikati, urgent action is needed to pass legislation regulating and restructuring the banking sector, a process that has been delayed for over four years. According to reports, Mikati is currently reviewing ministers' proposals and amendments to the latest version of this law for reintroduction in a later session of the Cabinet.

E-governance: Lebanon's Economy Ministry launches online services to expedite procedures
LBCI/April 23/2024
Soon, wasting time and enduring delays to obtain services from the Economy Ministry will become a thing of the past. Starting next week, a significant portion of these services will be available online, marking a significant step towards digital transformation. The Economy Ministry has aggressively pursued automation and digitalization to streamline services. Out of the 45 to 50 services provided, 18 services offered by the Consumer Protection Directorate will now be accessible online. This means that any citizen or commercial entity in need of these services can apply for them online through the ministry's dedicated application or its website: https://consumer-protection.economy.gov.lb/
Not only that, but applicants can also track their requests and check their status. If any documents are missing, they will receive a notification and can upload the required documents through the application. Once the application process is complete, applicants will receive a message containing a link to the request, which they can print and use as needed. This initiative, supported by the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) and the Lebanese Recovery Fund, in partnership with the Economy Ministry, is part of the government's broader journey towards e-governance. It falls within the framework of the National Strategy for Digital Transformation in Lebanon as an essential component of administrative reform. In line with this initiative, the ministry's team is undergoing intensive training conducted by UNDP to ensure they are ready to handle all requests and complaints in the upcoming days.

Displaced Syrians: Lebanon Seeking Repatriation of Prisoners
Rayan Chami/This is Beirut/April 23/2024
The Director of General Security, Elias Baissari, has been tasked by the government to initiate talks with the Syrian authorities on the repatriation of displaced Syrians and migrants serving prison terms in Lebanon. The decision was made during a ministerial, security and judicial meeting chaired by caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati at the Serail on Tuesday. The aim is to find solutions to the multifaceted challenge of repatriating Syrian convicts. The Minister of Foreign Affairs, Abdallah Bou Habib, complained during the meeting about occasional interventions made by politicians to secure the release of apprehended Syrians. “Whenever an illegal Syrian is arrested, someone intervenes to release him,” Bou Habib said, urging those concerned to refrain from obstructing legal procedures. For his part, Minister of Justice Henry Khoury underlined the persistent illegal entry of Syrian migrants fleeing economic conditions at home, and the crucial need to communicate with the Syrian authorities to alleviate overcrowding in prisons, where an estimated 2,500 Syrians are incarcerated. He said that the decision should cover “all cases,” including those who are convicted and those waiting for trial, “without exception.”
What Changed?
While Syrians have been fleeing to Lebanon since the war started at home in 2011, recent events in Lebanon and the region have caused the situation to change for the displaced population. However, today, Lebanon is grappling with a surge in criminal activities, prompting concerns about public safety. Recent crimes attributed to Syrians, including the killing of the coordinator of the Lebanese Forces in Jbeil, Pascal Sleiman, an elderly man in Achrafieh, and most recently, a resident of Aley region, caused a civilian outcry across the country. In a related development, Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides declared that the recent surge in illegal arrivals of Syrians from Lebanon via the sea caused the island to reach a breaking point in its reception capacity, resulting in the closure of asylum applications.
The Return
Recent events prompted a partial change in international response. On Monday, EU Commissioner for Neighborhood and Enlargement Oliver Várhelyi called for “facilitating the safe, voluntary, and dignified return of Syrian refugees in cooperation with Lebanese authorities, the UNHCR, and IOM.” It is the first time that a European Union official raised the possibility of a “safe, voluntary, and dignified” return home for displaced Syrians who have sought refuge in Lebanon since 2011, without linking it to a political solution in Syria. This followed Cyprus’ appeal on April 3 for action from the EU to curb the illegal arrival of Syrians via Lebanon. Additionally, the appeal led to an agreement between Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides and caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati to “coordinate with the European Union (EU) efforts to set up a framework for halting migratory flows, providing aid to Lebanon and encouraging displaced Syrians to return home.” Christodoulides also stated that he would revisit Lebanon with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on May 2 to announce an initiative for a larger financial package from the EU to deal with Lebanon’s refugee crisis.

Municipal Elections: Controversial Parliamentary Session in the Loop
Alissar Boulos/This is Beirut/April 23/2024
Caretaker Minister of Interior Bassam Mawlawi has set the following dates for the municipal elections: May 12 for Mount Lebanon, May 19 for North Lebanon and Akkar, and finally, May 26 for Beirut, Bekaa, and Baalbeck-Hermel. The door for submitting candidate applications in North Lebanon opened on Monday, but uncertainty still persists about whether these elections will take place or not. Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, a Hezbollah ally, is firmly opposed to excluding South Lebanon from the elections, while they are being held in all other Lebanese regions, due to unabating violence and fire exchange between Hezbollah and Israeli forces. However, for the anti-Hezbollah opposition, there is no justification for postponing the elections, which would still be held in South Lebanon once calm and stability are restored. Which of the two camps will prevail? The fate of the municipal elections sits in a balance that will be tipped in one way or another in parliament on Thursday. A plenary legislative session is scheduled for April 25 at 11 AM, with two laws of double urgency on the agenda. One pertains to the extension of the mandate of municipal councils and mukhtars until May 31, 2025, at the latest.
It is relatively clear who will vote in favor of a postponement and who will oppose it. The parliamentary blocs of the Kataeb and the Lebanese Forces will maintain their principled position by boycotting the session, as they believe that according to the Constitution, Parliament should not legislate but rather elect a President of the Republic. However, the LF made an exception when they attended the vote for extending the mandate of the Army Commander-in-Chief (on December 15, 2023).
“Then, it was done out of concern for the country’s national security. We refuse to extend the mandates of municipal councils and mukhtars. Elections must be held within the allotted timeframe,” an LF source told This is Beirut. “Last year, they (the Amal-Hezbollah duo) used the lack of funds as an excuse to postpone the vote, although the funds were available. This year, the pretext for postponement is the war in South Lebanon, even though elections could be held by excluding high-risk areas and organizing a partial vote later,” the source added. According to him, Amal and Hezbollah are pushing for a postponement, because their interests are at stake. “Both parties are against the vote because in certain regions of the South, they will have to compete separately. Moreover, they will have to face off against certain prominent families in the region, as well as representatives of the October 17 revolution. Therefore, to avoid internal discord, they prefer not to go forward with the elections.”The blocs aligned with Amal and Hezbollah will vote in favor of a postponement, while those close to the opposition, such as the Renewal bloc (Michel Moawad) and the Change Coalition (Mark Daou, Michel Doueihy, and Waddah Sadek), announced their intention to boycott the session, just like the LF and the Kataeb. Other independent MPs are expected to follow suit.
Which camp holds the majority if the quorum is ensured? The answer to this question depends on the parliamentary blocs of the Progressive Socialist Party (PSP) and the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM). The Democratic Gathering bloc, led by PSP chief Teymour Joumblat, has not yet indicated which way it will vote. However, its MPs will be present at the meeting. MP Bilal Abdallah confirmed this to This is Beirut, arguing that the PSP is against the “theory of obstruction,” noting that the bloc attended all previous sessions. The major uncertainty lies with the FPM bloc, which, like the opposition, is against holding legislative parliamentary meetings in the absence of a president. Its leader, Gebran Bassil, has kept the voting intentions of his bloc in the dark, stating that he wants to ensure that the Ministry of Interior is fully prepared to hold the vote first. Bassil explained that his bloc’s decision hinges on Mawlawi’s answers, regarding certain issues that the bloc would like to raise with him.
On Monday, a delegation from the FPM visited Mawlawi, but the final decision will be made at the end of its weekly meeting on Tuesday afternoon. Some believe that the FPM bloc would align with the Shiite duo’s decision and vote, as in 2023, in favor of a postponement. They also attribute the choice of this vote to the emerging rapprochement between the FPM and Amal, whose relations have been at their lowest for years. Gebran Bassil visited Jezzine on Sunday and was the guest of Ibrahim Azar, a former Maronite MP close to Nabih Berri. Azar would not have taken this initiative without the Speaker of the House’s approval. During the 2022 parliamentary elections, the FPM ran independently in this region, as did the Amal Movement. Ultimately, the LF ended up winning two out of the three available seats. This attempt at a rapprochement between the FPM and Amal, possibly in preparation for the 2026 parliamentary elections, could also be a reciprocal gesture made by Bassil in return to Amal’s support of the FPM’s candidate, who won the Order of Engineers elections. This tradeoff would involve the participation of the FPM bloc in the April 25 session and a vote in favor of a postponement, which would ultimately benefit the FPM, as it is losing ground in several regions. The Stakes of the Municipal Elections and the Mukhtars. These elections are important because they play a crucial role in maintaining the continuity of public services in a state where the institutions are paralyzed, the parliament is blocked, and the government is only a caretaker one. Additionally, they are significant for assessing the political landscape, providing voters with the opportunity to evaluate their position towards different political parties and even local dignitaries. These key figures are worried about being held accountable by voters for the causes and consequences of the current economic crisis.

No Elections Before Late 2024?
Johnny Kortbawi/This is Beirut/April 23/2024
Although the general situation in Lebanon indicated there might be a breakthrough – between May and June at the latest – in the presidential election issue, things look grimmer now. It is almost as if the fate of Lebanon, already low on the list of world priorities, has been adjourned until after the Gaza war.
The Al-Aqsa Flood operation, which was launched over six months ago, will only end in a way that suits Israel, and this might take time, especially given that the previously rejected solutions have now been accepted by Egypt and Jordan, albeit half-heartedly, and not without alluring propositions and promises. This means that the Gaza problem will be solved sooner or later, even if this means forcibly emptying the entire strip. In the longer term, this also means the total elimination of the Palestinian cause, knowing that dealing with the West Bank would not be as difficult, for military and security reasons.
On the Lebanese side, the Quintet did not manage to take any significant steps internally – it appears that the group members were never aligned, to begin with, and that no side is capable of communicating with its Lebanese counterparts or others, no matter how many excuses are given about the Hezbollah and Marada sides being ignored. Not to mention that Iran’s absence from any presidential initiative means that there is no foreseeable solution, as Iran is a crucial player given its hegemony over Lebanon’s internal politics. It remains that the most important chapter in terms of foreign policy is the American presidential elections to be held in November, starring Joe Biden and Donald Trump yet again. The former will endeavor to convince all that his health is not declining and that he can still govern, while the latter will try to make up for his previous loss and revert to his initial policy of re-imposing sanctions against Iran and implementing the “Deal of the Century” with Israel. In that case, Biden’s victory would be in Iran’s interest, but it is powerless when it comes to his election – unless it succeeds at portraying him as having won the foreign policy battle, but this would be too costly, especially given that it had been escalating the conflict of late. What this means is that Iran will not let go of its Lebanese crony to please Biden, because it can simply sell its “power card” for a higher price. However, it could concede provided that the United States prolongs the truce between the two countries – but it can also gift the card to Trump as if to say that it does not deserve all the sanctions. In any case, Iran will not solve the Lebanese election problem anytime soon, let alone the region’s most pressing matters. Therefore, it would be safe to assume that the presidential election will have to wait until late 2024, maybe longer if events similar to the Al-Aqsa Flood operation were to occur, or if a military operation is begun in Lebanon. One should expect anything.

Baissari to Hold Talks With Damascus on Displaced Syrians
This Is Beirut/April 23/2024
The Director of General Security, Elias Baissari, was charged by the government to hold talks with Syrian authorities to repatriate displaced Syrians and migrants serving prison sentences for crimes they committed. The decision was taken on Tuesday morning during a ministerial meeting chaired by caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati at the Serail, in the presence of judges and heads of security services. At the end of the meeting, the caretaker Minister of Justice, Henri Khoury, announced that General Baissari had been instructed to contact the Syrian authorities on this matter. His colleague in charge of Foreign affairs, Abdallah Bou Habib, reported on the political interventions made in some cases to obtain the release of Syrians arrested by the forces of law and order.The meeting comes in response to the outcry in the country over murders, involving Syrians, including the killing of the coordinator of the Lebanese Forces in Jbeil, Pascal Sleiman, an elderly man in Achrafieh and, most recently, a resident of Aley.

Lebanon: Bassil Eliminates Bou Saab from FPM after Differences over Presidency
Beirut: Asharq Al Awsat/April 23/2024
Disputes between leader of the Free Patriotic Movement Gebran Bassil and Deputy Speaker and FPM official Elias Bou Saab have ended with a rift two years after murky ties between the two. Bou Saab is not the first to be eliminated from the party. Bassil eliminated several prominent officials from the party in recent years. Bou Saab was a prominent figure of the FPM and adviser to former President and founder of the FPM, Michel Aoun. “Bou Saab is no longer among the ranks of the party”, prominent sources told Asharq Al-Awsat. “He has not taken part in the meetings of the (FPM’s) parliamentary bloc in months”.
Two Years of Differences
The first sign of the differences between Bassil and Bou Saab began during the 2022 parliamentary elections. Bassil was blamed for supporting an FPM candidate on the party’s electoral lists in the Metn area other than Bou Saab. Divisions got deeper after the elections when the candidates for the post of deputy speaker were named. FPM deputies and lawmakers of the Amal and Hezbollah parties had all voted in favor of Bou Saab who enjoyed the backing of Speaker Nabih Berri, the leader of Amal party. This “silent dispute” did not shatter the relations between the two men, nor did it affect Bou Saab’s relation with Aoun. Bou Saab, a deputy speaker and parliamentarian, had continuous contacts with Berri, and played a “mediating” role between the FPM and Aoun on one hand, and Berri on the other before the presidential vacuum. Bou Saab also had a negotiator role with US official Amos Hochstein who mediated the demarcation of Lebanon’s maritime border with Israel in 2022. Different Relations with the Political Components Tense relations peaked between the two during the presidential elections. FPM lawmakers were casting blank ballot votes while Bou Saab voted in favor of former minister Ziad Baroud. In the final presidential election session, Bou Saab was accused of not abiding by an agreement struck between the Lebanese Forces party, the Progressive Socialist Party and the FPM to support former minister Jihad Azour. In a televised interview two months before, Bou Saab said that Marada leader Sleiman Franjieh had the highest stakes to win the elections. He said that he would vote for him if his triumph stands at one vote. According to sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity, the differences between the two grew to their highest that Bassil could no longer tolerate, which drove him to eliminate Bou Saab. Sources informed about the atmosphere with the FPM said the move is unlikely to affect the political future of Bou Saab. They said his presence as a lawmaker is not linked to the FPM. He was a deputy before the FPM and will continue to be one despite any developments.

Netanyahu set to pivot Israel’s focus to Hezbollah
Osama Al-Sharif/Arab News/April 23/2024
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/129135/129135/
Iran and Israel appear to be content with the tentative outcome of what amounted to saber-rattling rather than open war. Israel misjudged by bombing Iran’s consulate in Damascus on April 1, triggering a calculated, direct and decisive retaliation by Tehran on April 13. And when Israel finally responded a week later, firing missiles against air defense systems close to sensitive nuclear facilities in Isfahan, it appeared that the threat of war had been averted. Israel came under US pressure to tone down its response, while Iran belittled the Israeli attack and declared that no reply was needed. The direct and grave showdown is, for now, over. The two sides have decided to go back to the shadow war that has been raging for years. Iran is again relying on its proxies in Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Lebanon to engage the Israelis, while Tel Aviv is satisfied to revert to targeting these proxies both openly and covertly. On Friday, the military warehouses of a pro-Iran proxy were targeted in Iraq. No one claimed responsibility, including the Americans. But while the US has managed to rein in the Israelis and stop them from venturing into a wider regional war, Israel is getting ready to ramp up its military campaign in Gaza’s Rafah. Its Western allies continue to implore it not to launch a ground offensive into the heavily populated border town. However, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his military have signaled that such an operation is imminent.
And although the world’s attention is back on the carnage in Gaza, following revelations of mass executions in Khan Younis and Nasser Hospital, the tensions along Israel’s northern border are reaching new heights. That front is likely to flare up precipitously in the coming days. Hezbollah decided to attack Israel soon after Tel Aviv launched its war on Gaza in the wake of the Oct. 7 Hamas assault. After nearly seven months, the two sides appear ready for a fiercer and more prolonged battle. After nearly seven months, the two sides appear ready for a fiercer and more prolonged battle
Tit-for-tat skirmishes have resulted in a heavy toll for both sides. More than 200,000 Israelis have been evacuated from their homes since Hezbollah started bombing northern Israel. The pro-Iran proxy has mostly abided by the so-called rules of engagement by directing its attacks within a 10-km stretch, but as Israel’s reprisals went deeper into Lebanon and hit harder, Hezbollah began hitting further into northern Galilee, including the city of Safed.
Israel’s strikes have resulted in at least 250 Hezbollah casualties, including key field leaders. Thousands of Lebanese civilians have had to leave their homes in the south of the country. Israeli bombing has resulted in severe devastation, while Hezbollah has concentrated on attacking sensitive Israeli tracking and listening installations. With a confrontation with Iran off the agenda, Netanyahu and his war Cabinet are now committed to neutralizing the threat from the north. Netanyahu is facing pressure from a polarized Israeli public over his failure to conclude a deal to return the hostages held by Hamas. His war on Gaza does not appear to be fulfilling any of the declared goals. On the contrary, the mission has burdened Netanyahu and his army. The world has turned against Israel and is now blasting it for creating an unprecedented humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza. The political fallout of Gaza has been disastrous for Israel. It now faces genocide charges at the UN’s highest court and the International Criminal Court may be forced to levy charges against Netanyahu and the top army brass. A number of European countries are on the verge of recognizing the state of Palestine. The American public is turning against Israel and the Zionist grip over US politicians. Netanyahu is once more under pressure to call for early elections, which he will undoubtedly lose to his rival Benny Gantz. He desperately needs to regroup and turn retreat into an attack. He is not alone in believing that a war on Hezbollah could turn things round. Netanyahu’s government has been under pressure to resolve the fate of the thousands of Israelis who have become displaced as a result of the low-intensity war in the north. These people demand to be allowed to go home. The Israeli self-defense card would work much better against Hezbollah than in the beleaguered Gaza Strip
Also, it was Hezbollah that broke a tentative truce in the north and breached a UN resolution to stay away from the common border area. The Israeli self-defense card would work much better against Hezbollah than in the beleaguered Gaza Strip. A strong retaliation against Hezbollah would not receive much objection from Israel’s Western allies. It is a case of self-defense, with Israel in a position to present itself as the victim. Added to this is the fact that Lebanon is deeply divided over Hezbollah’s latest gambit. Aside from its local allies, the Maronite Christians and the Lebanese Forces are becoming openly hostile to Hezbollah holding Lebanon’s future hostage. On the other hand, a full-fledged war against Hezbollah would open a Pandora’s box for Israel. The pro-Iran militia is tenfold stronger than Hamas and has prepared itself for all sorts of scenarios. It can retaliate with full force against an Israeli attack and could strike cities deep into Israel. It also has access to Iranian logistical support, unlike Hamas.
In recent days, Israeli war Cabinet member Gantz has highlighted the challenges the Lebanese front presents, stating that it requires “urgent attention.” “We have not yet achieved all the objectives of the war, but we have not given up on any of them,” he said. Gantz also emphasized: “The decisive moment is approaching on the northern front at the border with Lebanon.” He reassured residents of northern Israel that the “moment of truth” is approaching in terms of how to proceed militarily against Hezbollah. Hezbollah has been upping the ante recently, indicating that it is not backing down, making a possible showdown even more likely.Iran’s position on an open war between Hezbollah and Israel remains cryptic. Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian has not mentioned Hezbollah in a few weeks, but has said that Israel needs to end its crimes against Gaza. What that means is anyone’s guess. Would Iran come to Hezbollah’s rescue if Israel were to wage a total war against south Lebanon? And what would that help look like? Iran is unlikely to risk an open war with Israel and will instead rely on its proxies to keep Israel engaged. But the case for an Israeli attack on Lebanon is getting ripe. Netanyahu needs to deflect attention from Gaza and the aborted hostage deal. A war on Lebanon could provide that. It would be a calculated risk that he and his allies and rivals seem willing to take.
**Osama Al-Sharif is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman. X: @plato010

Understanding Israel-Hezbollah Clashes Since October 7
Ahmad Sharawi/The National Interest/April 23/2024
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/129139/129139/
After six months of trading fire, we can observe three distinct stages of the fighting between Israel and the Iranian proxy group.
Eighty thousand Israelis have evacuated their homes near the country’s northern border as Hezbollah rockets rain on their communities. Yet, Israeli forces are drawing the most fire on the Lebanese border. The rocket and mortar fire across the border can seem like skirmishes without a pattern or purpose. However, a closer look shows there have been three distinct stages to the fighting that began when Hezbollah fired the first rounds on October 8 to demonstrate its solidarity with Hamas.
Initially, Israel restricted its response to targeting Hezbollah launch sites near the border, yet in mid-November, it shifted to attacks deeper inside Lebanon with an eye toward degrading Hezbollah’s military infrastructure. Then, in January, the Israelis struck Dahiyeh—Hezbollah’s South Beirut stronghold—killing senior Hamas official Saleh Arouri. This prompted Hezbollah to match the Israeli escalation, yet Israel retains the initiative and has inflicted far greater damage while its adversary remains wary of provoking an all-out war.
Israel is determined to restore security for the tens of thousands of its citizens who live within range of Hezbollah rockets and mortars in southern Lebanon. In contrast, Hezbollah has to weigh the risk of provoking a massive response for which the Lebanese people across the political and religious spectrum would hold Hezbollah responsible. The group also needs to keep its powder dry so it can threaten retaliation in the event of an Israeli attack on its patrons in Tehran.
One day after Hamas launched the surprise attack that killed over 1,100 Israelis, Hezbollah intervened on Hamas’s side with rocket and artillery fire across Israel’s northern border. The attacks quickly spread across the breadth of the Blue Line—the de facto border between Israel and Lebanon—but their depth was limited, focusing on border towns and moshavs (collectives) like Shtula and Shlomi. The IDF retaliated by striking at the sources of the rocket and artillery fire, including southern Lebanese towns like Marwahin and Ayta Ash Shab. This choice of targets signaled that Israel sought to avoid escalation yet would exact a price from any unit that fired across the border.
Hezbollah conducted its strikes with a mix of anti-tank guided missiles (ATGMs) and a handful of drones, while the IDF employed artillery, drones, and helicopter strikes, as well as the Iron Dome defense system. In his first public address during the war, Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah claimed, “our operations on the border have forced the IDF to divert forces, weapons and equipment from Gaza and the West Bank to the Lebanese front.” Nasrallah’s words likely capture what Hezbollah hoped to accomplish, although there’s no clear indication that Israel faced any shortages on other fronts because of Hezbollah’s assault.
The Israelis’ targeting of an aluminum factory in Nabatieh on November 17 and Hezbollah’s retaliation against the headquarters of the IDF’s Ninety-First division in Biranit on November 20 signaled a shift towards the employment of an expanded range of weapons and a broadening of the clashes’ geographical boundaries compared to the initial phase. Israel’s strikes now stretched deeper into Southern Lebanon, reaching towns like Jezzine and Jibchit. For the IDF, this was a calculated departure from mere retaliation, aiming instead at dismantling Hezbollah’s capabilities.
Hezbollah, too, adjusted its strategy, turning its sights on IDF bases and barracks along the border. Yet, their strikes had minimal impact compared to Israel’s, as Hezbollah’s assaults often deliberately hit unmanned outposts and emptied barracks. With the geographical boundaries of conflict redrawn, Israel seized the opportunity to strike preemptively, targeting Hezbollah’s military infrastructure across the Lebanese south. It was a proactive stance, a declaration of intent to neutralize any threat posed by Hezbollah.
An Israeli precision strike that killed top Hamas official Saleh Arouri on January 2 marked the beginning of the third phase of the conflict in the north. Israel struck Arouri in Dahiyeh, Hezbollah’s south Beirut stronghold, marking a seismic shift toward a more aggressive approach that included the targeting of high-value assets and leadership.
Hezbollah responded by targeting the Meron air traffic base in northern Israel with sixty-two rockets. Yet, the IDF kept striking high-value targets such as Wissam Tawil, deputy commander of Hezbollah’s elite Radwan Force deputy, on January 8. Subsequent exchanges included an attack by Hezbollah on the IDF’s Northern Command HQ in Safed. At the same time, the IDF responded with the elimination of Hezbollah drone unit commander Ali Hussein Barji on January 9 . IDF also eliminated senior Radwan Force commander Ali al-Debs and his deputy on February 14 after an IDF soldier was killed in an attack on the Northern Command’s HQ. The latest targeted attacks eliminated Ali Ahmed Hussein, a senior operative in the Radwan Force, on April 8 and Yousef al-Baz, the coastal region commander in Hezbollah, on April 16.
Hezbollah’s operations also expanded geographically in this phase, targeting IDF bases in Golan Heights, yet their impact remained limited. Meanwhile, Israel conducted numerous strikes north of the Litani River, hitting significant targets like weapon storage facilities in Ghaziyeh, an air defense facility in Baalbek, and an Iranian-built airfield in Birket Jabbour.
Despite its attacks’ wider geographical reach, Hezbollah refrained from employing advanced weaponry like precision-guided missiles to prevent escalation to a full-scale war. Instead, there has been a rise in the use of Katyusha rockets targeting IDF sites more than ten miles from the border. However, the effectiveness of these attacks has been mitigated by Israel’s Iron Dome system, in addition to the low quality of the weaponry used by Hezbollah.
Looking back over the three phases of the conflict in the north since October 8, Hezbollah has clearly paid the higher price. It has suffered over 270 fatalities and extensive damage to its military infrastructure in southern Lebanon. The Radwan force has withdrawn from its positions on the border.
Israeli military analyst Alon Ben David sheds light on Hezbollah’s weakened state. He believes “its rocket and anti-tank missile capabilities have struggled to make an impact against Israeli forces, surprising even Hezbollah itself.”
On the domestic front, the conflict has exacerbated tensions within Lebanon. Criticism is mounting against Hezbollah’s decision to fight amidst a serious economic crisis. Civilians, already burdened by hardship, reject the use of their towns as launching pads for Hezbollah attacks, further straining the group’s support base. It is difficult to say how long the fight’s third phase will continue on the northern front. In Israel, speculation looms over an expanded IDF operation deep inside Lebanese territory. Conversely, Iran may activate Hezbollah to expand strikes on Israel following Tehran’s salvo of more than three hundred missiles and drones on April 13. Dramatic changes could happen at a moment’s notice, as they did on October 7.
*Ahmad Sharawi is a research analyst at The Foundation for Defense of Democracies, focusing on Middle East affairs, specifically the Levant, Iraq, and Iranian intervention in Arab affairs, as well as U.S. foreign policy toward the region. Follow him on X: @AhmadA_Sharawi.

Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on April 23-24/2024
Iran threatens to annihilate Israel should it launch a major attack
Reuters/April 23, 2024
DUBAI (Reuters) - An Israeli attack on Iranian territory could radically change dynamics and result in there being nothing left of the "Zionist regime", Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi was quoted as saying on Tuesday by the official IRNA news agency. Raisi began a three day visit to Pakistan on Monday and has vowed to boost trade between the neighbouring nations to $10 billion a year. The two Muslim neighbours are seeking to mend ties after unprecedented tit-for-tat military strikes this year. On Friday, explosions were heard over the Iranian city of Isfahan in what sources said was an Israeli attack but Tehran played down the incident and said it had no plans for retaliation. Iran launched a barrage of missiles and drones at Israel on April 13 in what it said was retaliation for Israel's suspected deadly strike on its embassy compound in Damascus on April 1, but almost all were shot down. "The Islamic Republic of Iran will honourably continue to support the Palestinian resistance," Raisi added in the speech in Lahore.

Iran's Israel strike coincided with crackdown on dissent at home, activists say Parisa Hafezi
DUBAI (Reuters)/April 23, 2024
The same day Iran launched its first ever direct attack on Israel it embarked on a less-noticed confrontation at home, ordering police in several cities to take to the streets to arrest women accused of flouting its strict Islamic dress code. Iranian authorities insist that their so-called Nour (Light) campaign targets businesses and individuals who defy the hijab law, aiming to respond to demands from devout citizens who are angry about the growing number of unveiled women in public. But activists and some politicians say the campaign appears aimed not only at enforcing mandatory hijab-wearing, but also at discouraging any wider dissent at a vulnerable moment for the clerical rulers. Under Iran's sharia, or Islamic law, women are obliged to cover their hair and wear long, loose-fitting clothes. Offenders face public rebuke, fines or arrest. The laws have become a political flashpoint since protests over the death of a young woman in the custody of the country's "morality police" in 2022 spiralled into the worst political turmoil since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. In a show of civil disobedience, unveiled women have frequently appeared in public since the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini. Security forces violently put down the subsequent revolt, which called for the government's downfall. As Iran's drone and missile assault unfolded on April 13, Tehran Police chief Abbasali Mohammadian went on state TV to announce the new campaign.
ARRESTS
"Starting today, Police in Tehran and other cities will carry out measures against those who violate the hijab law," he said, while hundreds of police swept onto the streets of the capital and other cities. Social media users posted pictures of a heavy morality police presence in Tehran and videos of police violently arresting women they alleged were improperly dressed, including plainclothes security forces dragging young women into police vans. Morality police vans had largely vanished from the streets since last year. The campaign rapidly drew public expressions of unease. Concerned about what they say could be a deepening rift between the establishment and society at large, some politicians have criticised the intensified crackdown. "... right at a time when national solidarity is more crucial than ever, the same ugly scenes (witnessed during the protests) are intensifying with more violence against Iranian women and girls! What kind of policy is this?," reformist politician Azar Mansouri posted on social media platform X. Former Labour minister Ali Rabeie posted on his X account: "I really don't understand when Iranian people feel good and are proud about confronting Israel, suddenly a group (of decision makers) push the society towards confrontation with the establishment?." Some others suspect the campaign had a political motive. A human rights activist in Tehran said the move was aimed at "injecting fear into society to prevent any anti-war protests and quell domestic dissent when the rulers are at war with Israel".
TOUGHER STANCE
"It is no coincidence that on the very day of the attack on Israel, police flooded the streets. They were concerned about the resurgence of unrest," said the activist, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the issue's sensitivity.
The prospect of a war with Israel, after a series of tit-for-tat retaliation between the arch foes, has alarmed many ordinary Iranians already facing an array of problems, ranging from economic misery to tightening social and political controls after the nationwide unrest in 2022-23. A former moderate government official said the clerical rulers had adopted a tougher stance against voices calling for political and social changes, fearing that such views could gain traction at a time when Iran is under external pressure. "That is part of the rulers' strategy to consolidate their grip on power when the country faces threats from its arch enemy Israel," said the former official. An Iranian politician, a former lawmaker, said "it is not just about cracking down on women who violate the dress code. In the past days, we have witnessed a clear crackdown on any sign of dissent". Journalists, lawyers, activists, human rights advocates and students have been arrested, summoned or faced other measures in the past days, according to opposition news websites. Those websites said the primary charge against those arrested was "inciting public opinion". On April 14, the intelligence unit of Iran's Revolutionary Guards warned against any pro-Israeli posts by social media users, state media reported.
(Writing by Parisa Hafezi, Editing by William Maclean)

Head of UN agency for Palestinians urges probe into staff killings
AFP/April 24, 2024
UNITED NATIONS, United States: The director of the United Nations agency for Palestinian refugees hit back at Israel Tuesday, calling for a Security Council probe into the “blatant disregard” for UN operations in Gaza after some 180 staffers were killed. Philippe Lazzarini also revealed that the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) had been able to partly offset a funding shortfall by raising $100 million from online donations since the Israel-Hamas conflict broke out in October. His comments came a day after the release of an independent review that said Israel had not yet provided evidence supporting its claim that hundreds of UNRWA staff were members of terrorist groups. The review did, however, identify “neutrality-related issues” within the agency, for example in employees’ social media posts. While accepting the findings of the review, Lazzarini told reporters that attacks on UNRWA’s neutrality “are primarily motivated by the objective to strip the Palestinians from the refugee status — and this is a reason why there are pushes today for UNRWA not to be present” in Gaza, east Jerusalem and the West Bank. UNRWA was established in 1949 to serve Palestinians who lost their homes in the 1948 Arab-Israeli conflict, as well as their descendants. There are now 5.9 million registered Palestinian refugees. Lazzarini said that he recently “called on the members of the Security Council for an independent investigation and accountability for the blatant disregard of UN premises, UN staff, and UN operations in the Gaza Strip.” As of Tuesday, 180 UNRWA staff have been killed in the war, 160 premises have been damaged or destroyed, and at least 400 people have been killed while seeking the protection of the UN flag, Lazzarini said. Vacated UNRWA premises have been used for military purposes by the Israeli army or Hamas and other militant groups, while UNRWA staffers have been arrested and even tortured, he added. Lazzarini stressed an investigation was necessary “to have accountability, in order not to set a new low standard in future conflict situations,” Lazzarini said. Allegations by Israel in January that some UNRWA staff participated in the Hamas attacks led to many donors freezing some $450 million in funding at a time when Gaza’s 2.3 million people are in dire need of food, water, shelter and medicine. Many countries have since resumed their donations, while others, including the United States — which passed a law blocking funding until at least March 2025 — have not. “In terms of our funding of UNRWA, that is still suspended. We’re gonna have to see real progress here before that gets changed,” White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said Tuesday. Lazzarini said UNRWA was operating “hand to mouth for the time being” but said that online fundraising to the agency totaled $100 million since October 7, in “an extraordinary indication of grassroots solidarity.” Israel has repeatedly equated UNRWA with Hamas, the militant group responsible for the October 7 attack which resulted in the death of around 1,170 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally of official Israeli figures. At least 34,183 people in Gaza, mostly women and children, have been killed in Israel’s retaliatory bombabardments and ground offensive, according to the health ministry in the Hamas-run territory.

'An Israeli-style Wagner Group': The Israeli ultra-Orthodox military unit in Washington’s crosshairs
Sébastian SEIBT/AFP/April 23, 2024
For the first time, the United States is expected to impose sanctions on an Israeli military unit. The Netzah Yehuda Battalion, initially set up to accommodate Israel’s ultra-Orthodox Jews but which quickly expanded to become a popular unit for radical right-wing settlers, has over the years been accused of a series of human rights abuses against Palestinians in the West Bank. The first word of the prospective sanctions emerged over the weekend when several Israeli and American news outlets reported that the Biden administration was gearing up to sanction Netzah Yehuda. Citing three unnamed US sources “with knowledge of the issue”, news website Axios said US Secretary of State Antony Blinken was expected to announce the unprecedented move against the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) “within days”. The sanctions relate to human rights abuses committed by the unit in the West Bank prior to Hamas’s October 7 attack on Israel, it said. ‘A unit every army should be ashamed of’ The threatened US sanction would thus conclude the investigation into Assad’s death.

Israel's strike on Iran: limited hit, major message
Associated Press/April 23, 2024
Satellite photos taken Monday suggest an apparent Israeli retaliatory strike targeting Iran's central city of Isfahan hit a radar system for a Russian-made air defense battery, contradicting repeated denials by officials in Tehran of any damage in the assault. The strike on an S-300 radar in what appears to have been a very limited strike by the Israelis would represent far more damage done than in the massive drone-and-missile attack Iran unleashed against Israel on April 13. That may be why Iranian officials up to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei have been trying to dismiss discussing what the attack actually did on Iranian soil. Analysts believe both Iran and Israel, regional archrivals locked in a shadow war for years, now are trying to dial back tensions following a series of escalatory attacks between them as the Israel-Hamas war in the Gaza Strip still rages and inflames the wider region. But a strike on the most advanced air defense system Iran possesses and uses to protect its nuclear sites sends a message, experts say.
"This strike shows Israel has the ability to penetrate Iran's air defense systems," said Nicole Grajewski, a fellow at the Carnegie Endowment's nuclear policy program who wrote a forthcoming book on Russia and Iran. "The precision of it was quite remarkable."The satellite images by Planet Labs PBC taken Monday morning near Isfahan's dual-use airport and air base, some 320 kilometers (200 miles) south of Tehran, showed an area nearby that served as a deployment point for the air defense system. Burn marks sit around what analysts including Chris Biggers, a consultant former government imagery analyst, previously had identified as a "flap-lid" radar system used for the S-300. Less-detailed satellite images taken after Friday showed similar burn marks around the area, though it wasn't clear what was at the site. Biggers said other components of the missile system appeared to have been removed from the site — even though they provide defensive cover for Iran's underground Natanz nuclear enrichment facility. "That's a powerful statement, given the system, the location, and how they use it," Biggers wrote. On Friday, air defenses opened fire and Iran grounded commercial flights across much of the country. Officials in the aftermath sought to downplay the attack, trying to describe it as just a series of small drones flying through the sky. "What happened ... was not a strike," Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian claimed in an interview with NBC News. "They were more like toys that our children play with – not drones." In the attack's aftermath, however, Iraqis found what appeared to be remnants of surface-to-air missiles south of Baghdad. That, coupled with a suspected Israeli strike on a radar station in Syria the same day, suggests Israeli fighter jets flew over Syria into Iraq, then fired so-called "standoff missiles" into Iran for the Isfahan attack. Small, shorter-range drones may have been launched as well — Israel has been able to launch sabotage attacks and other missions inside of Iran.
Still, Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani repeated Tehran's denial Monday. "Relevant authorities have announced that this harassment attack has caused no damage whatsoever and Iran's defensive system have carried out their duties," Kanaani told journalists at a briefing. "Therefore in our opinion this issue is not worthy of addressing."The S-300 and their years-delayed delivery to Iran show the challenge Tehran faces in getting any foreign-made advance weapon systems into the country. Russia and Iran initially struck a $800 million deal in 2007, but Moscow suspended their delivery three years later because of strong objections from the United States and Israel. After Iran reached its 2015 nuclear deal with world powers, Russia unfroze the deal and is believed to have given Iran four sets of an export variant of the S-300. The relationship between Iran and Russia has deepened in recent years. Moscow relies heavily on Iran's bomb-carrying Shahed drones to target sites across Ukraine as part of its war on the country. Those same drones featured in the Islamic Republic's attack on Israel. Tehran meanwhile has made repeated comments over recent years about trying to obtain Sukhoi Su-35 fighter jets from Russia to improve its decades-old fighter fleet. In September, a Russian-made YAK-130 combat trainer aircraft entered service in Iran. That model can be used to train pilots for the Su-35. Russia now has the S-400, but the S-300 which has a range of up to 200 kilometers (125 miles) and the capability to track down and strike multiple targets simultaneously, remains one of the most-potent air defense weapons in the world. The batteries can be used to shoot down missiles as well as aircraft. Iran likely needs Russian assistance to repair the damaged radar — and will seek newer weapons as well as time goes on, Grajewski said. "Iran wants new weapons from Russia all the time – to try to show that it's not so isolated," she said.

Israel Intensifies Strikes across Gaza, Orders New Evacuations in North
Asharq Al Awsat/April 23/2024
Israeli strikes intensified across Gaza on Tuesday in some of the heaviest shelling in weeks, residents said, and the army ordered fresh evacuations in the north of the strip, warning civilians they were in a "dangerous combat zone". Strikes by air and shelling from tanks on the ground were also reported in central and southern areas in what residents said were almost non-stop bombardments. In a post on social media platform X, Israeli army spokesman Avichay Adraee urged residents of four zones in Beit Lahiya on Gaza's northern edge to move to shelter in two designated areas. He said the military "will work with extreme force against terrorist infrastructure and subversive elements" in the region. The renewed shelling and bombing of northern Gaza comes almost four months after the Israeli army announced it was drawing down its troops there, saying Hamas no longer controlled those areas. This month, Israel also drew down most of its forces in southern Gaza. But efforts to reach a ceasefire have failed, and Israeli bombardment and raids on territory where its troops have withdrawn are making it difficult for displaced Gazans to return to abandoned homes.
Overnight, tanks made a new incursion east of Beit Hanoun on the northern edge of the Gaza Strip, though they did not penetrate far into the city, residents and Hamas media said. Gunfire reached some schools causing panic amongst displaced residents sheltering there. Tuesday's bombardment came after incoming rocket alerts sounded in two southern Israeli border towns, although no casualties were reported.
The armed wing of Islamic Jihad, a group allied to Hamas, claimed responsibility for the attacks on Sderot and Nir Am, indicating fighters were still able to launch rockets almost 200 days into the war, which has flattened large swathes of the enclave and displaced almost all of its 2.3 million people. Hamas said Israel had achieved only "humiliation and defeat" 200 days into its offensive. Speaking in a video aired by Al Jazeera television, Abu Ubaida, the spokesman for Hamas's armed wing, called for an escalation in conflict across all fronts and praised Iran for its first direct attack against Israel earlier this month.
He also said Hamas was sticking to its demands in ceasefire talks for Israel to permanently end its war, pull all of its troops out of Gaza and allow the displaced to return to the north. Israel has baulked at a permanent ceasefire, saying that would only allow Hamas to regroup.Thick black smoke could be seen rising in northern Gaza from across the southern Israeli border. Shelling was intense east of Beit Hanoun and Jabalia and continued on Tuesday in areas such as Zeitoun, one of Gaza City's oldest suburbs, with residents reporting at least 10 strikes in a matter of seconds along the main road.
'NIGHT OF HORROR'
"It was one of those nights of horror that we have lived in at the start of the war. The bombing from tanks and planes didn't stop," said Um Mohammad, 53, a mother-of-six living 700 meters from Zeitoun. "I had to gather with my children and my sisters who came to shelter with me in one place and pray for our lives as the house kept shaking," she told Reuters via a chat app. Just west of Beit Hanoun in Beit Lahiya an air strike hit a mosque, killing a boy and injuring several others, while a medic was killed in shelling near the town stadium, medics said. A separate strike in Beit Lahiya hit a crowd gathering on the coastal road to collect aid dropped from the air, medics said. Reuters could not immediately confirm that target, or whether there were casualties there. Elsewhere in the enclave, shelling hit the east of the main southern city Khan Younis a day after tanks raided the area, and in the central district four bodies were recovered from a house hit overnight in the Al-Nusseirat refugee camp. The Israeli army said rockets launched overnight into Israel had come from northern Gaza. It had struck rocket launchers and killed several militants, in what it called "targeted and precise" strikes. "Over the past day, IAF fighter jets and additional aircraft struck approximately 25 terror targets throughout the Gaza Strip, including military infrastructure, observation posts, terrorists, launch posts," it said in a statement. Israel says it is seeking to eradicate Hamas, which controls the enclave, following an attack by the armed group on Oct. 7 killing 1,200 and taking 253 hostages by Israeli tallies. Palestinian health authorities say more than 34,000 people have been confirmed killed in the seven-month war, with thousands more bodies as yet unrecovered. In Nasser Hospital, southern Gaza's main health facility, authorities recovered a further 35 bodies in the past day from what they say is one of at least three mass graves found at the site, taking the total found there to 310 in the past week. Palestinians say Israeli troops buried corpses there with bulldozers to cover up crimes. The Israeli military said its troops had dug up some bodies at the site and reburied them after testing to make sure no hostages were among them. Israel says it was forced to battle inside hospitals because Hamas fighters operated there, which medical staff and Hamas deny.

UN Rights Chief 'Horrified' by Mass Grave Reports at Gaza Hospitals
Asharq Al Awsat/April 23/2024
UN rights chief Volker Turk said on Tuesday he was "horrified" by the destruction of the Nasser and Al-Shifa medical facilities in Gaza and reports of mass graves containing hundreds of bodies there, according to a spokesperson. Palestinian authorities reported finding hundreds of bodies in mass graves at Nasser hospital in Khan Younis this week after it was abandoned by Israeli troops. Bodies were also reported at the Al-Shifa site following an Israeli special forces operation. The Israeli military said claims by Palestinian authorities that the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) had buried bodies were "baseless and unfounded". It said forces searching for Israeli hostages had examined bodies previously buried by Palestinians near Nasser hospital and had returned the bodies to where they were buried after they were examined. "The examination was conducted in a careful manner and exclusively in places where intelligence indicated the possible presence of hostages. The examination was carried out respectfully while maintaining the dignity of the deceased," it said in a statement. Ravina Shamdasani, the spokesperson for the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, said the rights organization was raising the alarm because multiple bodies had been discovered. Turk said he had been horrified by the reported mass grave discoveries and the hospitals' destruction, she said.
"Some of them had their hands tied, which of course indicates serious violations of international human rights law and international humanitarian law, and these need to be subjected to further investigations," Shamdasani said. She added that the UN human rights office was working on corroborating Palestinian officials' reports, including one that 30 bodies were found at Al-Shifa. According to those reports, some of the bodies were buried beneath piles of waste and included women and older people. Reuters reporters on Monday saw emergency workers digging corpses out of the ground in the ruins of Nasser hospital. Gaza's Hamas-run Civil Emergency Service said on Tuesday a total of 310 bodies had been found at one mass grave at Nasser so far and that two other graves had been identified, but not yet excavated. The Palestinian health ministry repeated the figure. Turk, who was represented by Shamdasani at a UN press briefing, also decried Israeli strikes on Gaza in recent days, which he said had killed mostly women and children. He also repeated a warning against a full-scale incursion on Rafah where some 1.2 million civilians are crowded together, saying this could lead to "further atrocity crimes". Violence has also surged in the occupied West Bank since Israel's war on Hamas began on Oct. 7, sparked by the latter's cross-border attacks on Israel which killed 1,200 people according to Israeli tallies. Palestinian health authorities said 14 Palestinians had been killed on Saturday in the Nur Shams area in one of the heaviest tolls in the West Bank in months. Shamdasani said the UN human rights office had received reports that some the victims in Nur Shams had been killed in apparent extrajudicial executions. The Hamas media office has accused Israel of executions but has not shared visual or other evidence. Israel denies carrying out executions. Israel's military has previously said a number of militants were killed or arrested in the West Bank raid and at least four soldiers wounded.

Israeli Forces Kill Palestinian Man During West Bank Raid
Asharq Al Awsat/April 23/2024
Israeli forces killed a Palestinian man and wounded two people including a child during raids in the occupied West Bank city of Jericho and adjacent refugee camps, Palestinian health authorities said on Tuesday. There was no immediate comment from the Israeli military on the incident, the latest in a series during a surge in violence in the West Bank since the start of the war in Gaza, with frequent raids by Israeli forces, as well as rampages by violent Jewish settlers and street attacks by Palestinians on Israelis. The dead man, identified as 44-year-old Shadi Issa Jalaita, had been standing outside his house in Jericho city, watching troops as they carried out a raid but had not been involved in the events his uncle, Shafiq Jalaita, said. "He was standing at the door, watching. My son asked him to go inside but he told him that he is far from what's happening," he told Reuters. "A sniper shot him from above, in his chest, they shot three bullets but only one hit him, and he died on the spot, he didn't do anything, nothing."The Palestinian news agency WAFA said the two wounded, including a child, were hit by bullets during a separate incident in the Aqabat Jabr refugee camp, just outside Jericho, where local residents said youths threw stones at the soldiers and there was a limited exchange of fire. Hundreds of Palestinians have been killed in clashes with Israeli forces since the start of the war in Gaza last October. Most have been armed fighters but stone throwing youths and uninvolved civilians have also been killed.

Failed Rocket Strike Launched on US-led Coalition Forces Base in Syria
Asharq Al Awsat/April 23/2024
A failed rocket strike was launched at a base housing US-led coalition forces at Rumalyn, Syria, marking the first time since Feb. 4 that Iranian-backed militias have attacked a US facility in Iraq or Syria, a US defense official said. No personnel were injured in the attack. Iraqi authorities said early Monday that they were searching for “outlaw elements” who launched an estimated five missiles across the border from Iraq into Syria late Sunday night targeting the base. No group has claimed responsibility for the attack. Also on Monday, a US official said American forces had shot down two drones near al-Assad Air Base in Iraq. The circumstances are under investigation, The Associated Press said. Israel’s defense minister on Monday visited members of an infantry battalion that could soon be blocked from receiving American aid because of human rights violations.Yoav Gallant on Monday told members of Netzah Yehuda battalion stationed on the Gaza border that they have the full backing of the Israeli state and its military. The decision by the US may come this week and would mark the first time the country has imposed sanctions on a unit inside the Israeli military and would further strain relations between the two allies, which have grown increasingly tense during the Israel-Hamas war. The conflict, now in its seventh month, has sparked regional unrest pitting Israel and the US against Iran and allied militant groups across the Middle East. Israel and Iran traded fire directly this month, raising fears of all-out war.
The war was sparked by the unprecedented Oct. 7 raid into southern Israel in which Hamas and other militants killed around 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and abducted around 250 hostages. Israel says Hamas is still holding around 100 hostages and the remains of more than 30 others.
The Israel-Hamas war has killed more than 34,000 Palestinians, according to local health officials, at least two-thirds of them children and women. It has devastated Gaza’s two largest cities and left a swath of destruction. Around 80% of the territory’s population have fled to other parts of the besieged coastal enclave. The US House of Representatives approved a $26 billion aid package on Saturday that includes around $9 billion in humanitarian assistance for Gaza, which experts say is on the brink of famine, as well as billions for Israel. The US Senate could pass the package as soon as Tuesday, and President Joe Biden has promised to sign it immediately.

Blast at Iraq’s PMF base caused by explosion in ammunition storage: State media
Reuters/23/,2024
A huge blast at Iraq’s Kalso military base used by the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) on Saturday was the result of an explosion in ammunition and rocket storage, state media reported on Tuesday citing the investigators’ report. No warplanes or drones were spotted in the sky above Iraq’s Babil province at the time of the explosion, according to the final report of the Iraqi military technical committee which investigated the explosion. The blast killed a member of the PMF security force that includes Iran-backed groups. Highly explosive material used in manufacturing ammunition was identified and the remnants of rockets were found 150 meters away from the explosion site, the report said. State media did not say explicitly whether the explosion was believed to be an accident. The blast occurred nearly a week after Iran fired a barrage of missiles and drones at Israel in response to a presumed Israeli airstrike that destroyed part of Iran’s embassy in Damascus on April 1, killing seven Iranian Revolutionary Guards officers. The PMF includes Iran-backed groups which, operating under the banner of the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, have attacked US troops in the region and targeted Israel since the eruption of the Gaza war, declaring support for the Palestinians.

US forces in Iraq, Syria attacked twice in under 24 hours
Reuters/April 23/,2024
US forces in Iraq and Syria faced two separate rocket and explosive drone attacks in less than 24 hours, Iraqi security sources and US officials told Reuters on Monday, the first reported after a near three-month pause. At least one armed drone was launched at the Ain al-Asad air base that hosts US troops in the western Iraqi province of Anbar, a US official said. That followed five rockets fired from northern Iraq towards US forces at a base in Rumalyn in remote northeastern Syria, on Sunday, according to US and Iraqi officials. There were no reports of casualties or significant damage from the drone attacks. On Saturday, a massive explosion at a military base in Iraq killed a member of an Iraqi security force that includes Iran-backed groups. The force commander said it was an attack while the army said it was investigating and that there were no warplanes in the sky at the time. The US military denied involvement. Near-daily rocket and drone strikes on US forces began in mid-October and were claimed by a group of Iran-backed Shia Muslim armed groups known as the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, who cited US backing for Israel’s war in Gaza. The attacks stopped in late January under pressure from Iraqi authorities and Iran, following deadly US retaliatory airstrikes in Iraq, after three US soldiers were killed in a drone strike on a small base on the Iraqi-Jordanian border. Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani returned at the weekend from a week-long visit to the United States where he met President Joe Biden in an effort to turn a new page in US-Iraqi relations despite soaring regional tensions. The US invaded Iraq in 2003 and toppled strongman leader Saddam Hussein, withdrawing in 2011 before returning in 2014 at the head of an international military coalition at the Baghdad government’s request to help fight ISIS insurgents.
The US has some 2,500 troops in Iraq and 900 in eastern Syria on an advise-and-assist mission.

Sudan military downs drones targeting its HQ in Shendi, say army sources
Reuters/April 23, 2024
Sudan's army used anti-aircraft missiles on Tuesday to shoot down drones targeting its headquarters in the city of Shendi, witnesses and army sources said, the latest in a series of such drone attacks. None of the drones hit their target, the army sources said. Reuters could not independently verify the report. The head of Sudan's army, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, arrived on Monday in Shendi, which is some 180 km (112 miles) north of the capital Khartoum, army media reported earlier. It was not immediately clear whether he remains in the area. Sudan's army is battling the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) for control of the vast north African country. Tuesday's drone attack is the third targeting areas that remain solidly under army control. The city of Atbara, also in River Nile state, and al-Gedaref state to the east have also come under drone attack. Both the army and the RSF have used drones in the conflict, which erupted a year ago. The RSF, which controls much of Khartoum and western regions of the country, has not claimed responsibility for any of the attacks. Shendi residents said the attacks have created panic in the town. The war between the army and RSF has sparked warnings of famine, displaced millions, killed thousands in the crossfire and given way to ethnic killings by the RSF and allied militias. The war appears likely to spread to the city of al-Fashir, the army's final holdout in the Darfur region, with many warning of a humanitarian catastrophe.

Russian deputy defense minister detained on suspicion of corruption
AFP/April 23, 2024
Russian Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov has been detained on suspicion of corruption, the Russian Investigative Committee announced Tuesday. The committee wrote on Telegram, "Deputy Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation Timur Vadimovich Ivanov has been detained on suspicion of committing a crime under part 6 of article 290 of the Criminal Code (taking a bribe)."

Pro-Palestinian protests sweep US colleges after Columbia mass arrests
Associated Press/April 23, 2024
Columbia canceled in-person classes, dozens of protesters were arrested at New York University and Yale, and the gates to Harvard Yard were closed to the public Monday as some of the most prestigious U.S. universities sought to defuse campus tensions over Israel's war with Hamas. More than 100 pro-Palestinian demonstrators who had camped out on Columbia's green were arrested last week, and similar encampments have sprouted up at universities around the country as schools struggle with where to draw the line between allowing free expression while maintaining safe and inclusive campuses.
At New York University, an encampment set up by students swelled to hundreds of protesters throughout the day Monday. The school said it warned the crowd to leave, then called in the police after the scene became disorderly and the university said it learned of reports of "intimidating chants and several antisemitic incidents." Shortly after 8:30 p.m., officers began making arrests. "It's a really outrageous crackdown by the university to allow the police to arrest students on our own campus," said New York University law student Byul Yoon.
"Antisemitism is never ok. That's absolutely not what we stand for and that's why there are so many Jewish comrades that are here with us today," Yoon said
The protests have pitted students against one another, with pro-Palestinian students demanding that their schools condemn Israel's assault on Gaza and divest from companies that sell weapons to Israel. Some Jewish students, meanwhile, say much of the criticism of Israel has veered into antisemitism and made them feel unsafe, and they point out that Hamas is still holding hostages taken during the group's Oct. 7 invasion. Tensions remained high Monday at Columbia, where the campus gates were locked to anyone without a school ID and where protests broke out both on campus and outside. U.S. Rep. Kathy Manning, a Democrat from North Carolina who was visiting Columbia with three other Jewish members of Congress, told reporters after meeting with students from the Jewish Law Students Association that there was "an enormous encampment of people" who had taken up about a third of the green. "We saw signs indicating that Israel should be destroyed," she said after leaving the Morningside Heights campus. Columbia announced Monday that courses at the Morningside campus will offer virtual options for students when possible, citing safety as their top priority. A woman inside the campus gates led about two dozen protesters on the street outside in a chant of, "From the river to the sea, Palestine will be free!" — a charged phrase that can mean vastly different things to different groups. A small group of pro-Israel counter demonstrators protested nearby.
University President Minouche Shafik said in a message to the school community Monday that she was "deeply saddened" by what was happening on campus. "To deescalate the rancor and give us all a chance to consider next steps, I am announcing that all classes will be held virtually on Monday," Shafik wrote, noting that students who don't live on campus should stay away. Protests have roiled many college campuses since Hamas' deadly attack on southern Israel, when militants killed about 1,200 people, most of them civilians, and took roughly 250 hostages. During the ensuing war, Israel has killed more than 34,000 Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, according to the local health ministry, which doesn't distinguish between combatants and non-combatants but says at least two-thirds of the dead are children and women. On Sunday, Elie Buechler, a rabbi for the Orthodox Union's Jewish Learning Initiative at Columbia, sent a WhatsApp message to nearly 300 Jewish students recommending they go home until it's safer for them on campus.
The latest developments came ahead of the Monday evening start of the Jewish holiday of Passover. Nicholas Baum, a 19-year-old Jewish freshman who lives in a Jewish theological seminary building two blocks from Columbia's campus, said protesters over the weekend were "calling for Hamas to blow away Tel Aviv and Israel." He said some of the protesters shouting antisemitic slurs were not students. "Jews are scared at Columbia. It's as simple as that," he said. "There's been so much vilification of Zionism, and it has spilled over into the vilification of Judaism." The protest encampment sprung up at Columbia on Wednesday, the same day that Shafik faced bruising criticism at a congressional hearing from Republicans who said she hadn't done enough to fight antisemitism. Two other Ivy League presidents resigned months ago following widely criticized testimony they gave to the same committee. In her statement Monday, Shafik said the Middle East conflict is terrible and that she understands that many are experiencing deep moral distress. "But we cannot have one group dictate terms and attempt to disrupt important milestones like graduation to advance their point of view," Shafik wrote. Over the coming days, a working group of deans, school administrators and faculty will try to find a resolution to the university crisis, noted Shafik, who didn't say when in-person classes would resume. U.S. House Republicans from New York urged Shafik to resign, saying in a letter Monday that she had failed to provide a safe learning environment in recent days as "anarchy has engulfed the campus."In Massachusetts, a sign said Harvard Yard was closed to the public Monday. It said structures, including tents and tables, were only allowed into the yard with prior permission. "Students violating these policies are subject to disciplinary action," the sign said. Security guards were checking people for school IDs.
The same day, the Harvard Undergraduate Palestine Solidarity Committee said the university's administration suspended their group. In the suspension notice provided by the student organization, the university wrote that the group's April 19 demonstration had violated school policy, and that the organization failed to attend required trainings after they were previously put on probation. The Palestine Solidary Committee said in a statement that they were suspended over technicalities and that the university hadn't provided written clarification on the university's policies when asked. "Harvard has shown us time and again that Palestine remains the exception to free speech," the group wrote in a statement.Harvard did not respond to an email request for comment. At Yale, police officers arrested about 45 protesters and charged them with misdemeanor trespassing, said Officer Christian Bruckhart, a New Haven police spokesperson. All were being released on promises to appear in court later, he said.
Protesters set up tents on Beinecke Plaza on Friday and demonstrated over the weekend, calling on Yale to end any investments in defense companies that do business with Israel. In a statement to the campus community on Sunday, Yale President Peter Salovey said university officials had spoken to the student protesters multiple times about the school's policies and guidelines, including those regarding speech and allowing access to campus spaces.School officials said they gave protesters until the end of the weekend to leave Beinecke Plaza. The said they again warned protesters Monday morning and told them that they could face arrest and discipline, including suspension, before police moved in. A large group of demonstrators regathered after Monday's arrests at Yale and blocked a street near campus, Bruckhart said. There were no reports of any violence or injuries. Prahlad Iyengar, an MIT graduate student studying electrical engineering, was among about two dozen students who set up a tent encampment on the school's Cambridge, Massachusetts, campus Sunday evening. They are calling for a cease-fire and are protesting what they describe as MIT's "complicity in the ongoing genocide in Gaza," he said. "MIT has not even called for a cease-fire, and that's a demand we have for sure," Iyengar said.

Latest English LCCC  analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on April 23-24/2024
Iran, next time, the target could be your nuclear sites
Jacob Nagel/The Jerusalem Post/April 23/2024 |
Iran must be held accountable for its exceptional attack. The Israeli response, immediate but also intended to have a lasting impact, was based on Iran's intention to cause destruction.
The Iranian ayatollah regime attacked Israel directly from its own territory, deploying hundreds of UAVs, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles. This was a significant departure from the usual Iranian method of operation through proxies in the region.
Despite Iranian leaders claiming that the attack was a response to an Israeli strike near the Iranian embassy in Damascus, the reasons for this shift in approach are much more complex than they seem.
Clearly, Khamenei did not expect the Israeli response to turn out the way it did.
A global defense coalition formed (including the US, UK, France, Jordan, and others) stood by Israel, effectively repelling the unprecedented attack, which in turn humiliated Iran and exposed inherent weaknesses in its attack systems against defensive capabilities.
These capabilities include Israel’s multi-layered defense system, which has been built over decades—Arrow, David’s Sling, Iron Dome, Patriot, interceptor aircraft, and others. The coalition intercepted over 95% of the threats, with Israel intercepting most of them. The few threats that got through caused little significant damage.
Iran still must be held accountable for their attack
However, this does not diminish the need to hold Iran accountable for its exceptional attack. The Israeli response, immediate but also intended to have a lasting impact, was not based on the success of the attack but on Iran’s intention to cause destruction. In a previous article, I suggested that Israel could respond by targeting one or more of the following: infrastructure directed against it, such as UAV and cruise missile factories, Iranian infrastructure facilities (like oil, gas, pipelines), or the nuclear program, focusing on the weapons program and its leading scientists.
This could also send a message about Israeli capabilities, potentially even targeting a symbolic icon of the Iranian regime or government.
Israel decided independently on the nature, scale, and timing of the response and carried it out, according to foreign reports. Israel informed its close ally, the USA, but did not seek its permission or participation.
The Israeli response reportedly included striking key elements in the Iranian defense infrastructure, such as the fire control radar of a Russian S-300 battery, considered the pinnacle of the systems Russia supplied to Iran to protect its nuclear facilities and other strategic sites. This also included other radar systems.
Viewed positively, this attack can be seen as a brilliant example of an “eye for an eye” approach, though with a sophisticated Israeli touch.
Despite its limited scope, it may seem to some Israelis to be too weak or disproportionate compared to the massive Iranian attack.
Yet, Israel’s technological and operational capabilities, demonstrated in defending against the massive Iranian assault, were showcased again, this time in the offensive response. To demonstrate capability and send a message without intending to punish or severely damage specific infrastructure, a limited but strategic attack deep into Iran against critical defense systems can suffice.
As it stands, Israel seems to have triumphed in both defense and offense.
With much less than a tenth of the Iranian attack force, the damage caused and the message conveyed were much greater than the Iranian achievement.
It is important to highlight that Israel responded despite American pressure not to do so, and the USA provided unprecedented security assistance shortly after the attack.
This suggests that, despite American reluctance to approve a direct response, they did not interfere with Israel’s actions. Iran attacked an Israeli air force base, while Israel targeted an Iranian air force base.
Israel’s attack in return
The Iranian attack aimed to damage aircraft and auxiliary capabilities, while the Israeli response, according to reports, launched missiles that struck defense systems.
This demonstrated to Iranians and Russians that their defense systems are not invulnerable and may not be able to protect even themselves. This serves as a message to Iranians, Russians, and Americans alike.
Although Israel did not target Iranian nuclear facilities or their support infrastructure, the areas attacked were near significant strategic nuclear facilities, including the conversion plant and the enriched uranium storage site.
This sends a clear message: “Your defenses are penetrable, and next time, the target could be your nuclear infrastructure.”
Despite the clear messages conveyed by Israel’s response, the balance remains uneven. It’s crucial to maintain focus on Gaza to achieve the war’s goals, including Rafah, the Philadelphi route, and addressing the situation in the north, while still working to prevent Iran from exploiting regional chaos to advance its nuclear program.
The “ring of fire” Iran constructed around Israel over the years has shown cracks due to Iranian miscalculations. Israel must capitalize on this momentum and start dismantling this “ring of fire” while building an international coalition.
However, it’s crucial to recognize that a defensive coalition might work, but there’s little hope for an offensive coalition against Iran. Israel must rely on itself.
**Brigadier General (Res.) Jacob Nagel is a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) and a professor at the Technion. He served as the National Security Advisor to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and as the Acting Head of the National Security Staff.

Many Culprits Behind Rise of Antisemitism, Including the Media
Howard Levitt/Gatestone Institute/April 23/2024
On the face of it, who can object to diversity, equity and inclusion? It is like objecting to Santa Claus. Unfortunately, these [DEI] workshops too often have been hijacked by radical ideologues who pitted races against each other.
Who indeed is to blame for the wave of hatred toward Jews that is roiling Canadian workplaces, universities, unions, social media postings, even our streets and neighbourhoods? Who are the purveyors of antisemitism?
Who is to blame for the wave of hatred toward Jews that is roiling Canadian workplaces, universities, unions, social media postings, even our streets and neighbourhoods? Who are the purveyors of antisemitism? Pictured: Police guard Talmud Torah Elementary School in Montreal, Canada, as parents pick up their children, on November 9, 2023. Two Jewish schools in the city had been hit by gunfire overnight. (Photo by Mathiew Leiser/AFP via Getty Images)
Over the last several years, Canadian employers have increasingly brought in "diversity, equity, and inclusion" (DEI) trainers to rid their workforces of conscious, and even subconscious, racism. On the face of it, who can object to diversity, equity and inclusion? It is like objecting to Santa Claus.
Unfortunately, these workshops too often have been hijacked by radical ideologues who pitted races against each other. The unhappy story of Richard Bilkszto, who committed suicide after alleging he was deemed a racist by one such trainer for observing that Canadians are not more racist than Americans, was simply the publicly exposed tip of that iceberg.
I have had many Jewish clients, even before Oct. 7, complain about how Jews have been treated in these DEI seminars. To what extent has this radical training played a role in the sudden outpouring of antisemitism here?
Who indeed is to blame for the wave of hatred toward Jews that is roiling Canadian workplaces, universities, unions, social media postings, even our streets and neighbourhoods?
Antisemitism has had a long sordid history in Canada and, for some (ironically many of those who have never knowingly even met a Jew), it has always been hidden just below the surface. There was a reprieve after the guilt induced by the atrocities of the Second World War. But it is ascendant again, and surprisingly, its adherents are proudly so.
Who are the purveyors of antisemitism?
Obviously, first are the radical Islamists importing their ancient historic Jew-hatred based on their particular interpretation of the Koran. Their hatred of Christians and other "infidels" is only slightly behind in the hierarchy.
There is the radical woke left, which has, since Israel's underdog defeat of the combined armies of Jordan, Egypt and Syria in 1967, viewed Israel as an oppressor. I believe much of the antisemitism in the public sector union movement can be attributed to that strain.
There is the influence of DEI which has too often placed Jews at the top of a racial hierarchy, ignoring the fact that Jews have always been, and remain, dramatically more discriminated against than any other group, including those groups at the supposed bottom of the DEI hierarchy of intersectionality: Indigenous, Blacks, Muslims and the LGBTQIA+.
Allied with those forces are universities and colleges, which have been temples of wokeness for years, penalizing students who express views that dissent from their left-wing pronouncements. While campuses are hotbeds of support for Hamas, polls have shown young people who have not been in the clutches of our university and college professors support Israel, as do most other groups in Canada by large majorities. Although I am distinguishing them, the left, the universities and DEI practitioners are somewhat interchangeable, and have many of the same members.
The last group which I believe has been responsible for rising antisemitism are irresponsible media publications.
Canada's public broadcaster, the CBC, has been particularly one-sided and unrelenting in its coverage of the conflict between Israel and Hamas. It still does not describe Hamas as a terrorist organization and has yet to apologize for falsely accusing Israel of bombing a hospital and killing hundreds — even though it has long been acknowledged that a misfired Palestinian Islamic Jihad rocket was to blame and that the death toll was much lower.
Consistently, the CBC has presented a view of the war, distorted in Hamas' favour.
In a recent column in the daily Toronto Sun, Warren Kinsella revealed that the CBC has a committee struck to directly oversee its coverage on Israel. He also reported that Jewish journalists there say the stories they pitch on the war are being routinely ignored.
CBC is the worst, but it is not alone. Montreal's La Presse daily ran a ghoulish cartoon depicting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as a repulsive vampire with a big nose and sharp claws poised to suck the life out of Palestinians, referring to him as "Nosfenyahu" in reference to the 1922 German silent horror movie Nosferatu, which has long been seen as deeply antisemitic. The Toronto Star has also published columns with strong anti-Israel positions.
I will close with a disturbing, but unsurprising, story about our public broadcaster. It says it all. Early in the war, CBC sought out "deeply personal essays" about what it means to be Jewish and Canadian today, and welcomed Jewish Canadians to pitch their stories. As a result, Shawna Cohen of Toronto submitted a piece. A producer from the CBC responded:
"Specifically, I'd like to hear from someone who wants a ceasefire/is finding it hard to be pro-Israel right now OR someone who supports the war despite the high cost of civilian life — and how their personal lived experiences inform those views. Please let me know if you might want to write something along those lines, and if so, what would your take be."
Ms. Cohen wrote back:
"As a Jewish person, I feel I have a responsibility to let you know that the specific angle CBC is searching for is dangerous and narrow-minded. The Jewish community is feeling extremely unsafe — in Canada and beyond.
"Rather than providing writers with an opportunity to share how and why Jews are feeling this way, CBC has reverse engineered the narrative. It is specifically seeking out a rare breed of Jew who doesn't support Israel and/or is willing to negotiate with a terrorist organization. Taking this approach only contributes to anti-Israel propaganda.
"To be honest, I was reluctant to pitch my story to CBC because of its established record of anti-Israel and anti-Zionist bias. From your response, it is clear that CBC does not welcome genuine opinions or perspectives that are not viewed through its own narrow, sociopolitical lens. This reality is unconscionable for a publicly funded broadcaster that considers itself the voice of a nation."
She never received a response.
Hopefully our public broadcaster will be defunded soon enough. It has become a national disgrace.
**Howard Levitt is the senior partner of Levitt Sheikh, Canadian employment and labour lawyers, and Bencher (Director) of the Law Society of Ontario. This article previously appeared in The Financial Post, and is reprinted here with the kind permission of the author.
© 2024 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Israel Embraced, Israel Encircled
Sam Menassa/Asharq Al-Awsat/April 23/2024
The Iranian drone and missile attack on Israel, as well as the response of the US and its Western allies in defense of Israel on the night of the attack, have brought to light many revelations that go beyond the exceptional nature of the attack itself.
Firstly, they showed that the US and Western allies did not align with Israel for its protection alone, as had been the case previously. They also stood behind it because of their sense, if not fear, of the threat posed by the adversary it is facing this time, Iran and its proxies in the region.
The cloud that had been obscuring the West's vision of the multifaceted threats Iran poses beyond its nuclear program was removed: its role in destabilizing regional security and breaking the region's states apart, its interference in the affairs of the Gulf states to build a new regional security system centered around Iran, and regional states approving of its political and military influence. Added to these threats is its role in undermining global security, whether by supporting Russia in its war against Ukraine, threatening global shipping in the Red Sea, or expanding its influence in East Africa and Central Asia.
The Gaza war that erupted in October 2023 has highlighted Iran's direct role in regional developments. It demonstrated that the various parties and movements that form the so-called "resistance against Israel" are committed to serving Iran, not to the causes of their own countries and their liberation. Iran controls them, and their actions are shaped to further its agenda.
Secondly, they showed that the regional shadow war that has been raging for years, between Iran and its allies on the one hand, and Israel and the West (particularly the United States and its allies) has come out into the open. For years, Israel has been conducting strikes on Iran and its allies in Syria, as well as raids and assassinations in Iran itself. These attacks have persisted throughout the past six months of its ongoing military campaign against Hamas in Gaza. Nonetheless, the attack of April 1st stood out, as it targeted a diplomatic site, which is traditionally not a military target, a clear declaration of war that Iran could only respond to directly.
Thirdly, they showed that Iran is fully aware of the United States' deterrence capacities in the region and the genuine commitment of Western powers to Israel's security, which allowed the latter to avoid casualties and damage. The Iranian response to the attack on its consulate in Damascus was calculated, reserved, and contained. Those who have said that it had been intended to "save face" were not wrong.
The retaliation had been announced beforehand, depriving Iran of the element of surprise. The weapons used in the attack, despite its intensity, were interceptable because of how long it took for them to reach their targets. Iran doubtlessly possesses more lethal and powerful weapons than those it chose to utilize, but it refrained from using them to avoid igniting a broad war, which all sides, especially Iran and the United States, want to avoid. This desire to avoid sparking a regional war might also explain why Iran did not call on its local proxies to avenge it this time around.
Fourthly, the night of drones and the Gaza war have highlighted the gap between Iran's military and technological capabilities and Israel's cutting-edge technological capacities. Israel's multi-layered defense systems allowed it to intercept 99 percent of the drones and missiles that Iran had launched. Many of them were intercepted outside Israeli territory, over the skies over Jordan and Iraq, with the United States conducting most of the operations.
The fifth and most important revelation that came to light that night is that the United States recognizes that this ongoing war in the region is being waged by two fanatics that must both be deterred: Iran and the far-right Israeli government. While Washington and its Western allies have rallied together around protecting Israel, this military embrace will come at a political cost for the Israeli state. That much was obvious from the scale and nature of the Israeli response to Iran's retaliation for the attack on its consulate in Damascus, which was limited to airstrikes in Isfahan. More of these political costs will emerge in the Gaza war and the mini-war in South Lebanon.
Despite all of the arrogance that Israel has shown, the stage we are currently in makes it particularly difficult for Benjamin Netanyahu and the Israeli government to go against or antagonize their allies. It is also becoming clear that the US president is taking a balanced approach. On the one hand, he wants to safeguard Israel's security, and on the other, he wants to prevent it from escalating against Iran.
Iran's retaliation to the attack on its consulate in Damascus and the subsequent Israeli airstrikes on Isfahan, will probably not give rise to a trajectory that leads to a full-scale war. A return to the status quo that had been in place prior to the consulate strike is likely, with negotiations regarding the situation in Gaza and South Lebanon likely to continue. Although it was calculated, Iran's retaliation necessitated intervention from allies. It created the nucleus for a coalition that includes the US, Britain, France, and Jordan, while other Arab countries are not far from it. This emergence of this nucleus could potentially open the door to expanding this coalition, as other Arab countries could be added in the future if two Israeli impediments are resolved. The first is the immense and glaring mistakes Israel has committed throughout the Gaza war and its callous violence in the West Bank. The second is its lack of a political vision, as Israel has been focused solely on the security dimension of all matters tied to Palestine.
Today, the entire world, particularly the Arab region, stands at a crossroads. Global and regional balances are being reshaped by ongoing developments. The broader geopolitical landscape suggests that political and religious extremism are receding. The reasons for this are many: the West has realized that it had been a mistake to indulge political Islam, extremist Sunni groups have been severely weakened, the West has had to stand up to Russia-Putin and defend Ukraine, Europe has confronted populist right-wing movements, the Shiite fanaticism represented by Iran and its proxies has been contained, and Jewish extremism in Israel is being pushed back. The success of the coalition's response to the Iranian attack on Israel on one hand, and Israel's encirclement by belligerents on the other, will inevitably reflect on the Arab world. It must be built upon to create an Arab initiative focused more on politics than security. This effort must encapsulate all the diplomatic movements we have seen over the past six months and push for a two-state solution while simultaneously fortifying regional security through strategic cooperation among partners. Most importantly, it must reflect the moderation that has been chosen by most Arab states, at the forefront of which are Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Jordan. Without this coalition, Iran and the figures of tyranny and extremism will continue to sow unrest and conflict across the region, as well as create obstacles to peace, development, and cooperation.

The Middle East Between the American Root and the Iranian and Israeli Branches
Eyad Abu Shakra/Asharq Al-Awsat/April 23/2024
The exchanged messages between Israel and Iran, especially over recent weeks, leave no room for reasonable doubt regarding the intentions of both sides.
By the intentions of both sides, I am referring first to their intentions regarding the Palestinian cause and secondly to the regional map of bilateral relations between Tel Aviv and Tehran.
The soft “bombardment” negotiations we witnessed were aptly “directed” by the US, which nearly delved into the details of the munitions that could be and the sites that could be targeted. If not for the remnants of decency, an agreement on the scale of losses on both sides would have been reached.
The direct and indirect messages that Tel Aviv and Tehran have sent conveyed that they are fully committed to complying with the “rules of engagement,” allowing both to save face. Meanwhile, the former continues to displace and massacre the Palestinians, hollowing out their cause at an increasingly rapid pace. On the other side, the latter continues to make empty claims and score cheap points at the expense of the Arab political system and the international community, which have failed to bring about any substantial change in the region.
Since October 7th, there has been a race to announce the objective to displace Palestinians en masse, through statements, maps, and systematic destruction, between Benjamin Netanyahu, Itamar Ben-Gvir, and Bezalel Smotrich. Their colleagues, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and Benny Gantz, "general of expediency and opportunism," have not shied away either, joining in intermittently.
Indeed, things have been going according to the plan unequivocally supported by the US, whose contributions range from supplying advanced weaponry to the stream of vetoes in the UN Security Council that prevent the disruption of the Israeli war machine's operations. Thus, nothing has undermined the momentum behind the effort to displace the Palestinians, whether it ends after the fall of Rafah or expands to reach the West Bank!
On the other hand, Iran’s retaliation- as we have seen for several months now- initially entailed Tehran's militias in the Arab Levant instigating skirmishes and harassing targets, which was accompanied by rhetorical “bravado” aimed at projecting its presence and appeasing grievances, with these actions doing nothing to change the equation in the Gaza Strip militarily.
However, it was natural that, over time, new considerations would emerge, recalibrating the "rules of engagement" at the local level... especially for the operational theater of each militia that takes its marching orders from Tehran and its IRGC. Four considerations were undoubtedly at the forefront:
1- Unease within Israel, particularly among the families of hostages and abductees, who are growing increasingly concerned for their fate with Netanyahu's government remaining in power. Indeed, these families have escalated recently, holding protests and sit-ins in streets and squares.
2- The entire world is watching coverage of the "starvation war" live. Everyone is watching the brutal bombardment, the tragic scenes of Palestinian civilians suffering, especially children, and the horrific destruction that has been brought up the Gaza Strip, where hardly a school, university, or hospital has been spared from direct targeting. Despite the viciousness of the displacement plan, this devastation is beginning to create repercussions that cannot remain "cost-free" forever...
3- Signs of timid "awkwardness" in the United States within President Joe Biden's administration have begun to emerge, especially in light of the unequivocal opposition voiced by many Muslims and Arab Americans, as well as liberal and progressive movements, in pivotal swing states during an "election year." Here it must be said that, despite Donald Trump's highly polarizing character- which makes it virtually impossible for a Democratic voter to change camps and vote Republican- the abstention of large numbers of Democratic voters in key states could cost Biden the election.
4- The growing resentment among many in the Arab world, which has been shocked by the provocative public stances of fanatical extremists, was compounded by the ongoing unprecedented pressure exerted by the Israeli lobby in the United States and Western Europe. This lobby is pushing for the suppression of opposition, harassing anyone who dissents and extorting them with accusations of "anti-Semitism" in the media and on university campuses.
These four considerations required "some sort of modification" to the rules of engagement that does not, however, prevent Netanyahu and his cronies from attacking and occupying Rafah. Thus, through what looks like telepathic communication, both the Israelis and Iranians began to modify the "rules of engagement" under the auspices of the US, which, contrary to the leaks and official statements from Washington, holds all the cards.
The fact of the matter, as the "messages" delivered with drones and missiles have shown, is that all of Tehran's regional Arab "tools", as well as those who make “decisions of war and peace" in Israel, comply with Washington's vision and operate in accordance with its priorities.
Indeed, Washington was the conductor of this "symphony" of bombardment and counter-bombardment. It was consulted by all sides on how far they could take their escalation. Meanwhile, questions about Rafah were almost completely forgotten...
As an Arab military expert put it yesterday, these Israeli-Iranian "messages" seemed like a "simulation exercise by allied armies, with each side playing the role of friend or foe, meaning Israel played the role of an enemy in this simulation rather than being an enemy that must be destroyed."
This analogy is accurate. In fact, what we are dealing with here is two regional powers that are more "complementary" than "confrontational." Despite their claims to the contrary, they both refer back to the same global power and are fighting a common enemy. Neither of the two incurs any loss... Only their "common enemy," the Arab states, loses out!
Based on the above, we must be forthright and acknowledge the following:
1. The series of events that have unfolded since October 7 confirm that Israel, with its own forces alone, may not consistently manage to successfully engage all of its surroundings.
2. There can be no doubt regarding the complete and total "alignment" of the United States and Israel- politically, militarily, and in terms of mutual interests.
3. The Iranian leadership- contrary to the grandstanding of its mouthpieces- is not engaged in an "existential war" against Israel across the Middle East. Rather, its ultimate goal is to enter the equation and share regional influence with Israel and Türkiye.
4. No matter how far the rhetorical war of words is taken and how potent the dose of minor harassment and limited skirmishes becomes, there will be no confrontation between the US and Iran. Actually, Iran as an entity (not necessarily as a regime), is of central strategic significance for Washington and its engagements with the Muslim world... its precise calculations.

Is the Internet the Enemy of Progress?
The New York Times/April 23/2024
It’s unusual when you find a strong dose of pessimism about the future of technological progress highlighted by one of the world’s leading techno-optimists. But if you follow the combative venture capitalist Marc Andreessen on X, you would have seen him giving wide circulation to this passage from Michael Crichton’s 1995 “Jurassic Park” sequel “The Lost World,” in which Crichton’s ever-prescient Dr. Ian Malcolm warns that the internet will put an end to human progress:
“It means the end of innovation,” Malcolm said. “This idea that the whole world is wired together is mass death. Every biologist knows that small groups in isolation evolve fastest. You put a thousand birds on an ocean island and they’ll evolve very fast. You put ten thousand on a big continent, and their evolution slows down ... And everybody on Earth knows that innovation only occurs in small groups. Put three people on a committee and they may get something done. Ten people, and it gets harder. Thirty people, and nothing happens. Thirty million, it becomes impossible. That’s the effect of mass media — it keeps anything from happening. Mass media swamps diversity. It makes every place the same. In a mass-media world, there’s less of everything except the top ten books, records, movies, ideas. People worry about losing species diversity in the rain forest. But what about intellectual diversity — our most necessary resource? That’s disappearing faster than trees. But we haven’t figured that out, so now we’re planning to put five billion people together in cyberspace. And it’ll freeze the entire species ... Everyone will think the same thing at the same time. Global uniformity.”
But it’s 29 years old, written when the true internet era was still just a gleam in Al Gore’s eye.
And as prophecies go, it’s pretty impressive — up there with Malcolm’s rather more famous prediction about just how bad things would get in John Hammond’s amusement park. The quote doesn’t capture everything about the current age (more on the prophecy’s limits in a moment), but it predicted quite a lot: the popular styles that seem stuck on repeat; the mid-list musicians and novelists disappearing amid the dominance of megastars; the dwindling interest in new music as the algorithm steers everyone to the Beatles; the “age of average” in everything from art and architecture to hotel décor, auto design and Instagram looks. You could further argue that the passage predicted the Great Stagnation that Tyler Cowen identified in 2011, the productivity slowdown and disappointing economic growth that followed the initial 1990s-era internet boom. You could say that it predicted the remarkable ideological groupthink of the liberal Western leadership class over the same period, the rise of Davos Man and then the heightened elite conformism of the woke era. Finally, you could say that it predicted the striking phenomenon of birthrates declining globally, not just locally, in nearly every country and region touched by the iPhone version of modernity. This last point is central to the updating of the Malcolm/Crichton thesis offered recently by the George Mason University professor Robin Hanson. Writing for Quillette, he argues that globalization and homogenization have reduced cultural competition in roughly the way that the “Lost World” passage describes. Instead of a bevy of cultural models competing the way private-sector firms do and dying off quickly if they don’t adapt successfully, globalization gives us a tendency toward “macro culture” — a few large-scale cultural models, or maybe eventually even just a global monoculture. This has initial benefits but long-term drawbacks:
The recent big jump in the size of macro cultures has boosted within-culture innovation, powering peace, trade and fast-growing wealth. As a result, our few huge cultures today suffer much less from famine, disease or war. But because of these effects, we should expect to now get much less selection of cultures, and thus less long-run innovation.
It’s not just that we’re forgoing opportunities to improve our macro cultures. Selection may also be too weak — at least in the short run — to cancel the mistakes of cultural drift. Shouldn’t we expect that macro cultures, when selection is weak, will drift into dysfunction just as firm cultures do?
This kind of maladaptive cultural drift, Hanson argues, is what’s happening with below-replacement fertility. For a variety of social and economic reasons, the developed world has converged on a reproductive model that’s already leading to rapid population aging and could lead — with South Korea as the blinking-red indicator light — to outright population collapse. This all but guarantees that technological and economic progress will slow down, but Hanson goes further and argues that depopulation may turn the world over to “insular cultures like Mennonites, Amish, and Haredim,” which by “doubling every two decades,” he writes, “look on track to replace our mainline civilization in a few centuries.”
For him, this is basically a fall-of-Rome scenario, with insular religious minorities playing the role of the early Christians and the rest of us cast in the role of the decadent Roman elites. And Hanson suggests that it’s extremely difficult for a culture that’s become universal but also maladaptive to escape this kind of fate, to get back to dynamism without first going through a crackup or collapse that yields more competition in the wreckage.
Now let’s consider the alternative to this kind of pessimism. When he posted the Ian Malcolm quotation, Andreessen did not endorse it; rather, he caveated it, saying that Crichton “was right about this. But also wrong. The internet is also the land of a million shards, cultures, cults.” Meaning that while there is a powerful tendency toward cultural homogenization and global uniformity, the online era also allows for more of Hanson’s within-culture innovation, if you know where to look for it: more conformism at the center, maybe, but more ferment at the fringe; more debilitating groupthink but also more eccentricity and radical experiments.

The US and the Erosion of the Two-State Solution
Nabil Amr/Asharq Al-Awsat/April 23/2024
The veto... is a consistent feature of US policy towards Palestine. The US explained its position by asserting that the United Nations is not the right place to address this issue. In fact, the US claims that raising this matter at the UN is the main obstacle to resolving the issue, as there is no alternative to direct negotiations between the parties to the conflict.
Since the Madrid peace process, which was taken to Washington and then Oslo, the Palestinian question has been in limbo. There has not been a solution; instead, we saw a war that goes beyond the confines of Palestine-Israel, and there are now real fears that it could expand to become a regional war. Here we are now, standing at the abyss, and there is nothing to reassure us that the current formula, which is grounded in the premise that neither Iran nor the US wants such a war, will hold.
Gaza remains the main flashpoint, and its current regional extension, due to the shared border, is the northern front. All that it would take for us to find ourselves in the midst of a regional war are surprises on the battlefield and an Israeli venture to impose one as it continues to draw the US into the conflict.
After the consulate attack, and the retaliation and counter-retaliation drills, it was leaked that the US, which is keen on keeping the military developments in the region under control and minimizing their scope to the greatest extent possible, had traded limiting the scope of Israel’s retaliation to the missile and drone “spectacle” for approval of the Israeli military campaign on Rafah.
Despite the US denying that such a deal had been made, developments on the ground do not demonstrate the contrary. The attack on Rafah is being discussed by the Israelis and Americans. They are not discussing whether the invasion should take place, but how to account for humanitarian considerations. These considerations can be circumvented by programming military operations and tying them to the provision of relatively safe zones for civilians. That is not very different from the formula of trading a limited response to Iran for Rafah.
Israel has far more freedom in operations in the Gaza Strip than it does on Iranian territory. Since the beginning of the war, Israel has seemed completely unrestrained in Gaza, as it has been shielded by the laxity of the US, which nominally expresses reservations about its actions on the ground while fully backing its goals. There is nothing new here. The Gaza war has been on this trajectory since it began. However, what is new is that the US has walked back on framing the two-state solution as the sole only way to avoid inflaming the region. If we compare US statements regarding this particular issue with its current rhetoric, we find a clear difference, not only in terminology but also in content and the direction being taken.
In their previous statements about the aftermath of the conflict, the Americans had gone as far as saying that they were looking for a way to recognize the Palestinian state. They said that they had consulted with numerous parties on this matter and discussed the need to reform the Palestinian Authority as a first step to solving the post-war quagmire. The plan would involve handing over Gaza to an "improved" PA and making serious efforts that would lead to the establishment of a Palestinian state. President Biden even said that this would happen within the framework of a “regional solution.”
The shift in rhetoric and behavior became clear after Israel mobilized all of its forces to prevent the US position from evolving, even reverting back to older premises. In this context, the Knesset voted, with an overwhelming majority, to reject the “imposition” of a Palestinian state and to insist that not only the question of establishment but also characteristics, should be negotiated rather than imposed.
The effectiveness of the "brakes" Israel put on the US initiative is obvious. Not only did the US persistently and keenly seek to prevent the UN Security Council from passing a vote on this matter, the US diplomatic top brass’s explanation of its "veto" also fully aligns with the Israeli position: there is only one path to resolving the Palestinian question, Israel, with a thin added veneer of negotiations that Israel categorically rejects.
With the Iranian-Israeli skirmishes, the involvement of the US and NATO in those skirmishes, the persistence of the war on Gaza, the American-Israeli understandings regarding Rafah, and Israel's ongoing operations on the northern front that abide by long-standing rules, we have seen a rapid erosion of the US position on the two-state solution that had been laid out as part of the plan for "the day after.”
The bottom line is that US policy towards Palestine has reverted back to where it had been in the past. The most dangerous aspect of this stance is that the solution has been placed in the hands of Israel. Recently, President Biden settled the matter by saying that now is not the time to recognize the Palestinian state. It reminds us of his statement in Bethlehem. “The Palestinians have the right to a state, but that will not be achieved, in the long term or longer term.” That means that the matter will continue to be discussed but no efforts will be made to bring it about!

Concerted US-French Efforts to Temper Regional Fires
Philippe Abi-Akl/This is Beirut/April 23/2024
The Middle East is teetering on the edge of chaos, just like a dormant volcano ready to erupt at any time, threatening to wipe out entire nations and governments. International powers, especially Washington, are working tirelessly to quell the unrest, fearing the worst. Nonetheless, and despite Israel’s practices against the Palestinians, the flow of US arms and aid to Tel Aviv persists, with the latest being a $26 billion package approved by the House of Representatives just two days ago. The “theatrical” Iranian response and the faint and “precise” Israeli retaliation indicate that Washington still holds sway in the region. Both responses were within the so-called rules of engagement defined by the United States and aligned with the timing and the confines of the political game that it has set. This has prompted Israel to adopt a new tactic to prevent a war. In this prevailing context, and as long as there is no agreement on a ceasefire in Gaza, and no consensus on the principles and foundations of a settlement, the situation in the region will remain in a heated, though non-explosive, state. Consequently, the actions of the key players will remain within the framework of American guidelines.
However, the international (Western) community is still highly concerned about the volatility of Lebanon’s southern border. Amidst the escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, which are being carefully managed to align with the American tempo, there is a fear that Israel might intensify its operations in the South to neutralize Hezbollah’s military capabilities, similar to its actions against Hamas in Gaza. Well-informed sources confirm that, based on the American-French consensus within the Quintet countries, there is a firm insistence on the precise and thorough implementation of Resolution 1701. In other words, it should be adhered to without any modifications or amendments.
In anticipation, the region is witnessing a series of visits by officials aimed at facilitating a solution before next July, when President Joe Biden’s administration shifts its focus to the election battle. In well-informed circles, there are talks of a potential visit to Beirut by the French president’s special envoy, Jean-Yves Le Drian, and by US envoy Amos Hochstein, aimed at setting the stage for the next phase, notably, the presidential election and de-escalation of tensions on the southern front. The two objectives, as well as starting the land demarcation process (following the resolution of the dispute over the contested points) are expected to be done in coordination with Speaker of the House Nabih Berri. Meanwhile, the pace of contacts and concertation between Washington and Tel Aviv over security and political issues is accelerating. The aim is to keep the pace of tit-for-tat retaliations under control and prevent the region from sliding into a war Washington is keen to avoid on the eve of its presidential elections, a sentiment shared by all parties involved in the current conflict.
Western circles acknowledge that Iran has become a key player in the region and is responsible for destabilizing regimes through its military proxies. “There must be an effective deterrent against Iran,” says a former US official. He adds, “Iran’s central role is all about disruption, and it must realize that any such escalation will be met with retaliation against valuable assets of the Revolutionary Guard and its members worldwide.” Washington, along with European countries, will resort to sanctions against institutions and individuals accused of undermining stability and obstructing progress towards a solution.
American sources rule out the prospect of a war in the region, despite the heightened tensions between Iran and Israel. In fact, none of the parties involved is currently willing or able to take on this military option and bear its disastrous consequences. With this in mind, Washington and Paris are now convinced of the need to resolve the issues pertaining to the volatile region, including Lebanon, and pave the way for an international conference dedicated to solidifying a potential regional settlement.
Regarding Lebanon, it is imperative to elect a president with the adequate personality and characteristics that would enable him to pave the way for an upcoming settlement. Rather than being the result of a settlement, he would contribute to its making.