Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on July 22-23/2023
Lebanon is an Iranian Occupied Country
Elias Bejjani/July 23/2023
Introduction/For the majorit y of the Lebanese people, the holistic patriotic picture has become very clear. In general, they are now fully aware of the precipitating factors and perpetuating elements underlying the ongoing flagrant direct and indirect Iranian occupation of their country through  armed  militias and a bunch of traitorous, Trojan horse politicians and officials spearheaded by the terrorist – fundamentalist Hezbollah. Lebanese people both in the homeland and Diaspora are very much aware of the numerous evil, vicious Syrian-Iranian obstacles deliberately employed and imposed on them by force and murder to hinder their beloved Lebanon from fully reclaiming its independence, sovereignty, freedom, tranquility and peace. The free and patriotic Lebanese strongly reject and ridicule the fake and camouflaging slogans of hostility towards Israel, the USA and the Western Free world, as well as those of resistance, liberation, the people, government, and army triad, one people in two countries, and the many other deceitful tools of deception that Hezbollah utilizes as a pretext to maintain its ministate and hegemony on Lebanon and its people.

St. Mary Magdalene Annual Remebrance Day
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/120363/120363/
St. Mary Magdalene is one of the greatest saints of the Bible and a legendary example of God's mercy and grace. The precise dates of her birth and death are unknown, but we do know she was present with Christ during his public ministry, death and resurrection. She is mentioned at least a dozen times in the Gospels. Mary Magdalene has long been regarded as a prostitute or sexually immoral in western Christianity, but this is not supported in the scriptures. It is believed she was a Jewish woman who lived among Gentiles, living as they did. The Gospels agree that Mary was originally a great sinner. Jesus cast seven demons out of her when he met her. After this, she told several women she associated with and these women also became followers. There is also debate over if Mary Magdalene is the same unnamed women, a sinner, who weeps and washes Jesus' feet with her hair in the Gospel of John. Scholars are skeptical this is the same person.Despite the scholarly dispute over her background, what she did in her subsequent life, after meeting Jesus, is much more significant. She was certainly a sinner whom Jesus saved, giving us an example of how no person is beyond the saving grace of God. During Jesus' ministry, it is believed that Mary Magdalene followed him, part of a semi-permanent entourage who served Jesus and his Disciples. Mary likely watched the crucifixion from a distance along with the other women who followed Christ during His ministry. Mary was present when Christ rose from the dead, visiting his tomb to anoint his body only to find the stone rolled away and Christ, very much alive, sitting at the place they laid Him. She was the first witness to His resurrection. After the death of Christ, a legend states that she remained among the early Christians. After fourteen years, she was allegedly put into a boat by Jews, along with several other saints of the early Church, and set adrift without sails or oars. The boat landed in southern France, where she spent the remaining years of her life living in solitude, in a cave. St. Mary Magdalene's feast day is July 22. She is the patroness of converts, repentant sinners, sexual temptation, pharmacists, tanners and women, and many other places and causes.

Le Drian returns to Beirut Monday, may call for 'consensual president'
Naharnet /July 22/2023
French presidential envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian will return to Beirut on Monday after presenting to French President Emmanuel Macron and French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna his report on the outcome of talks with the Lebanese, regional and international parties, sources in Paris said. “Le Drian might carry an attempt to establish consensus among the domestic parties in order to elect a consensual president who would be acceptable to a Lebanese majority according to the characteristics of the five-nation committee,” the sources told Annahar newspaper in remarks published Saturday. Political sources meanwhile told al-Akhbar newspaper that “the Qataris have already arrived in Beirut and started a parallel endeavor that has a bigger margin than the French drive.” “Qatari officials have met with some political forces, including with the MPs of the (National) Moderation bloc and officials from the (Shiite) Duo,” the sources added. Several sources meanwhile told the daily that the Qataris believe that the French initiative ended after the Doha meeting of the five-nation group and that a French-sponsored dialogue might take place “without an Arab or international cover for it.” “The Qataris discussed the name of Army chief Joseph Aoun with some of those whom they met, tackling with them the possibility of his election as president and whether the current stage allows that he be promoted.”

Children’s NGO shut down in Lebanon amid trafficking, sexual harassment claims
Arab News/July 22, 2023
BEIRUT: A nongovernmental organization in Mount Lebanon was closed down on Saturday for presenting an “imminent danger” to children. The Village of Love and Peace purported to offer protection and accommodation to abandoned children or those at risk from their parents.
Lawyer Diana Assaf claimed on social media that the NGO has committed crimes against Lebanese and Syrian children. “Sexual harassment was recorded earlier in the NGO, but what has emerged is the crime of human trafficking,” Assaf said in a video clip on her Instagram page. “The director of the NGO deliberately sold a child to a family in return for money and forged hospital documents and other documents, an act that is considered human trafficking in the penal code.” The NGO cares for several girls, from newborns to 17-year-olds. A report by Judge Joelle Bou Haidar following initial investigations stated that Norma Saeed, the director of the NGO, “committed the crime of human trafficking by misleading some families into believing that the infants in her care, who were there by court order, could be adopted without resorting to the court by forging their documents with the help of a village headman and one of the hospitals in exchange for monetary payments.”
The report continued: “She used fraudulent maneuvers, pretending to have two infant girls in her care, while she actually handed them over to two unrelated families without the court’s knowledge or any legal justification. “The NGO director was also aware that two minors in her care had been sexually harassed by a person named Jebran, who encouraged them and other minors to engage in sexual activity and drug use, which resulted in one of the girls falling in love with him.” It added: “The girl told investigators that she wished to die since he was already married and could not be with her. The director took no action against Jebran and did not inform the relevant court about him, making her complicit in his crime.” The report also stated that Saeed “took some minors to a nightclub to celebrate her birthday, allowing them to consume alcohol to the point of intoxication. One of them attempted suicide without any known reason.”
It went on to say that Saeed “threatened the minors with imprisonment if they told the court about what was happening in the NGO. She used abusive language and insults against them. She also took some of the girls to her house to spend the night without the court’s permission, in violation of the NGO’s regulations, and forced them to do cleaning work in the house.”The investigation also raised suspicions regarding “the NGO’s collaboration with fake organizations to obtain donations and financial amounts in order to fulfill its mission.”
This matter is under investigation by judicial authorities “and falls within the framework of combating corruption for which children pay the price.”The report noted that the NGO failed to provide “the most basic human rights, such as physical, mental, and health safety, as it lacks the minimum cleanliness standards.”
Judge Bou Haidar “has been investigating the NGO for some time. It turns out that the suffering has been going on for three years,” said Assaf. Bou Haidar arrested the NGO director and her suspected accomplices for human trafficking, while the allegations of sexual harassment against Jebran are still under consideration by the public prosecution, according to Assaf. Judges across Lebanon have been told to remove all children from care of the NGO as it is a “source of imminent danger” to them. They have been transferred to another organization. In its application to the Ministry of Interior, the NGO, established in 2020, claimed that its purpose was to “provide shelter and rehabilitation for those at risk, especially those under the age of seven, and to provide everything that contributes to the development and improvement of their physical and mental abilities.”The case is the latest in a series of scandals related to children in Lebanon in recent weeks, including revelations of abuse at a private nursery, with a manager and an employee being arrested, as well as cases of infants being abandoned on the street.

Airborne exploitation: How human trafficking routes have evolved in Lebanon
LBCI/July 22, 2023
In Lebanon, human trafficking networks have adapted their methods, moving beyond land and sea routes to now include air travel. A network operating from Lebanon stretches its tentacles towards South America and Europe, with its members scattered across various countries, especially in South America. At its helm is a Palestinian mastermind known as "Al-Nablusi." The group's modus operandi for smuggling individuals into Europe is intriguing. The network books travel tickets for people through Beirut airport to destinations in South America, where they are provided with work permits. After a certain period, return tickets to Beirut are booked, with layovers in European countries. Upon arrival at European airports, the intended victims are led into their desired country through political asylum claims. This elaborate process costs $10,000 per person, half of the amount paid in Lebanon and the other half in South America.
Recently, information from the Interpol office in Madrid was passed on to the Beirut Interpol office, revealing the intricate details of this operation, with Spain being a part of its route. Following a thorough investigation by the Central Investigation Department of the Lebanese Judicial Police, the mastermind's identity was identified, even though his associates abroad had initially provided a false name during interrogation. Al-Nablusi has confessed to the trafficking of numerous individuals. In addition, authorities found 60 official documents in his possessions, revealing that these individuals were smuggled into Europe. The authenticity of these documents is yet to be verified. These tales of death-dealing gangs involved in human trafficking continue, where the lives of innocent people are traded for wealth, luxury, and power while the fate of these victims remains uncertain.

Lebanese Army raid in Brital leads to gunfight with wanted individuals
LBCI/July 22, 2023
A unit from the Lebanese Army conducted a raid in the town of Brital, resulting in a gunfight exchange with several wanted individuals. Preliminary reports indicate that casualties and injuries have been reported among the suspects.

Hezbollah Central Council member slams opposition's rejection of consensus
LBCI/July 22, 2023
Sheikh Nabil Kaouk, a member of Hezbollah's Central Council, emphasized the importance of national consensus as the only viable path to overcome the deepening internal crises. Speaking at an Ashoura event held by Hezbollah, Sheikh Kaouk criticized the opposing faction for their refusal to engage in consensus-building, attributing it to their lack of a unifying vision and their fixation on confrontation and conflict. "The depth of the problem lies in the fact that the opposing faction seeks confrontation and is actively planning and working towards it. Those who reject consensus should bear the responsibility, and it is natural for others to accuse them of obstruction," Sheikh Kaouk asserted. He challenged the group known for its defiance and confrontational stance, questioning whether they have reconsidered their decision to boycott sessions that would potentially elect Sleiman Frangieh. He urged them to provide the Lebanese people with a clear response. He considered that "the external movement succeeds if it is a helping hand and does not become part of the divisions." He believed that "incitement and misinformation do not change the equations, and some should not waste time and opportunities, but rather learn from past experiences." "The solution to the refugee crisis starts by liberating some official figures from the shackles of pleasing America," he stated.

BDL deputies weigh resignation over legislation dispute
LBCI/July 22, 2023
In a significant political development, the four deputies of the Lebanese Central Bank are refusing to assume governing responsibilities as of August 1 without proper tools. However, if the parliamentary council and the government do not respond to their proposed plan, they seriously consider a collective resignation, believing that navigating through the crisis requires practical tools. Upcoming Monday, Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati will meet with the first deputy governor, Wassim Mansouri, to hear the government's response to the request of the four deputies in the Administration and Justice Committee.
The deputies have requested a set of laws, including the parliament, to allow the government to borrow from the Banque du Liban (BDL) for a maximum period of six months to cover public sector salaries and secure essential supplies.
This condition serves as a warning to the cabinet, signaling that it is the final loan they will grant, contingent on implementing a comprehensive reform plan. However, the question remains whether the parliamentary blocs will accept such legislation. The Lebanese Forces party considered throwing the ball in the parliament's court unacceptable, as it is the government's responsibility to prepare a draft and refer it to the council. It also asked "how they can accept borrowing from the government when they already know it lacks the ability to repay the loan," adding that the priority should be to properly elect a president for the legislation. In this context, the Lebanese Forces bloc has not yet convened to discuss the proposals, but they are not opposed to legislating out of necessity to stabilize the financial situation. However, this is subject to a thorough examination of the four deputies' proposals. The Progressive Socialist Party stressed that either a new governor should be appointed or the ruling deputies should assume their responsibilities in collaboration with the parliament, but without preconditions. Sources from the Reform and Change Bloc confirmed to LBCI that they don't accept the legislation, urging first to elect a President. The notable position comes from the Development and Liberation Bloc, whose deputies were among the strongest critics of the BDL deputies' plan. Moreover, they believe that legislating without clear answers from BDL deputies is unacceptable, and the responsibility for overall policy lies with the government, not the central bank. However, Hezbollah, whose deputies were absent from the Administration and Justice Committee session, refrained from commenting on the legislation, maintaining the stance that any proposal will be studied before taking a position. As the situation unfolds, it becomes evident that more complications lie ahead. Could the rejection of legislation force BDL deputies to resign, leading them to govern until a new president is elected? The political landscape remains unpredictable, and intentions may become apparent.

MP Fadlallah emphasizes the equation of Army-People-Resistance for Lebanon's security
LBCI/July 22, 2023
In two separate speeches delivered in Kfar Remen and Zrariyeh, Member of the Loyalty to the Resistance bloc, MP Hassan Fadlallah, emphasized the significance of the equation of security and stability, which has been reinforced by the unity between the resistance and its people, as well as the role played by the Lebanese Army in what he referred to as the equation of the "Army-People-Resistance." "The equation of the resistance is focused on confronting the enemy, not the inside. We have settled on this matter internally, with our constitution and laws, some of which might require amendments and reforms. The path to fixing our state and its institutions lies solely through its constitution and laws," he asserted.  He added that internally, they act based on what they deem as beneficial in addressing internal affairs, implementing reforms, working within state institutions, combating corruption, and devising plans to address the financial and economic situation. However, they adhere to specific regulations because the composition and formula of the country necessitate it. He emphasized that anyone seeking change should not position them as an obstacle, as they firmly believe in the country's best interests. During his speeches, Fadlallah advocated avoiding provocative actions that could incite sectarian tensions or jeopardize civil peace, as these principles and foundations guide their actions. He highlighted the urgent need for state institutions to be reorganized and called for the election of a president and the formation of a fully empowered new government to devise plans and take action, emphasizing that they are actively working towards this goal.

Okais to LBCI: Caretaker government has no authority to extend, appoint, or accept resignations in BDL's governorship file
LBCI/July 22, 2023
MP George Okais considered that "there are three issues to address the upcoming vacuum in the governance of Banque du Liban (BDL). The first is the appointment of a governor by the caretaker government; the second is the extension of the current ruler; and the third is the transfer of the governor's authority to the first deputy," asking: "Does the caretaker government have the right to extend or appoint?" During an interview on LBCI's "Nharkom Said" TV show, he said: "The four deputy governors said: On August 1, we will not violate the law," adding, "This is an indication that the entire period preceding this date was marred by violation of laws as if their speech was a condemnation of all previous policies." Okais added, "We want the deputy governors or those in charge of monetary policies to implement the laws, and for the government to carry out the rescue plan, and for the parliament to issue reform legislation and laws after electing a president, and we want to abolish 'fake' platforms." He described the sessions held in Parliament with the Administration and Justice Committee and the deputy governors as "positive." He pointed out that "the caretaker government does not have the right to extend, appoint, or accept any resignation in the governance file, and 'there are confusions saying' that when we reach July 31, the governor is required to continue running the public utility, and this is a constitutional heresy that can be appealed and nullified on the second day." Okais pointed out that "the Governor of Banque du Liban is obligated to deliver and hand over the responsibility to First Deputy Governor, Wassim Mansouri, and after receiving it, Mansouri has the right to resign, and since it is a caretaker government, it is not entitled to accept the resignation, so he completes the management of the public facility, and the powers would be transferred to him in full." He stressed that "the parliamentary majority is against the extension of the governor's term, against the appointment of a new governor by the caretaker government, and the resignation of the four deputies." He said, "We intersect with the Free Patriotic Movement in rejecting Frangieh's candidacy, and the reasons for their rejection may differ from our reasons, and we intersect with them in adopting Azour's candidacy." In the presidential file, he said: "I do not think that Le Drian will listen to us on this visit, but rather we are the ones who will listen to him. The question is: Will he be a representative of his country only or to the Quintet meeting?" Regarding their relationship with France, he said, "It is a historical relationship, and France is a friendly country and supports Lebanon in several matters. I do not think that this relationship can be shaken by France's position at a specific political moment in Lebanon. This relationship is based on mutual respect, and we meet with the French regularly to listen to them, and they listen to us."

Security Forces Thwart Drug Smuggling Operation Through Beirut Airport
NNA/July 22, 2023
Airport police in Lebanon discovered a Syrian national carrying 16 pieces of cannabis wrapped in white transparent nylon, with a total weight of 1,266 kg, in his cargo and shoulder bags in chocolate envelopes. The man was on his way to Turkey and claimed he had no knowledge of the drugs. Further investigation led to the discovery of 20 boxes of the same type of chocolate with cannabis inside, intended for smuggling abroad. Two other individuals involved in the operation were arrested as a result of the investigation.

Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on July 22-23/2023
Iran's Khamenei says Sweden in 'battle-array' over Koran desecrations
DUBAI/STOCKHOLM,/Reuters/July 22, 2023
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Saturday that people who desecrate the Koran should face the "most severe punishment" and Sweden has "gone into battle-array for war on the Muslim world" by supporting those responsible. across Iran and Iraq after Sweden allowed the burning of the Koran under rules protecting free speech. Protesters in Iraq set alight the Swedish embassy in Baghdad on Thursday. An Iraqi immigrant to Sweden burned a Koran outside a Stockholm mosque last month. Protesters in Sweden kicked and partially destroyed a book they said was the Koran outside the Iraqi embassy in Stockholm on Thursday, but did not burn it as they had threatened to do, Reuters witnesses said. Swedish officials have deplored the acts but said they cannot prevent them. Iran's state media reported that Khamenei had demanded Sweden hand over those responsible for prosecution in Islamic countries. "All Islamic scholars agree that those who desecrate the Koran deserved the most severe punishment... The duty of that (Swedish) government is to hand over the perpetrator to the judicial systems of Islamic countries," Khamenei said in a statement carried by state media.
Iran, which has delayed the posting of a new ambassador to Sweden, also said it was not accepting a new Swedish envoy. "The Swedish government should know that by supporting the criminal who burnt the Holy Quran it has gone into battle-array for war on the Muslim world," Khamenei later tweeted. "They have created feelings of hatred & animosity toward them in all the Muslim nations & many of their governments," he said. A Swedish government representative was not immediately available for comment. (Reporting by Parisa Hafezi in Dubai and Supantha Mukherjee in Stockholm; editing by Jason Neely and Nick Macfie)

US Marines deployed to safeguard oil trade in the Strait of Hormuz
LBCI/July 22, 2023
In a notable move, all elements of the US Marine Corps will soon be deployed in the Strait of Hormuz, according to an announcement by the US Department of Defense. This decision comes in response to recent attempts by Iran to seize commercial vessels in the region of the US Central Command.
Pentagon officials confirmed that "F-16" fighters will provide air cover for ships navigating the Strait of Hormuz, bolstering the US military's presence in the area as a deterrent to Iran. Over the past two years, Iran has made nearly twenty attempts to attack or seize internationally flagged commercial ships in the Central Command's operational area. Additionally, Iranian officials have previously threatened to close the waterway. However, taking such unilateral action would violate international law since Oman and Iran jointly administer it. But why is the Strait of Hormuz so significant? It is the world's most important oil passage, with 20 to 30 oil tankers passing through it daily, accounting for 40 percent of global oil trade. The strait's width spans fifty kilometers and is a vital link between the Gulf and the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. For Arab states bordering the Arabian Gulf, it is the primary outlet for approximately 90 percent of their oil exports. Therefore, with the US's recent move, despite Iran's announcement of new alliances that include Iran's naval forces and several Gulf countries like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, and others, the question remains: Will Washington succeed in curbing Iran's activities in the Strait of Hormuz?

Netanyahu visit to Canada 'not on the table,' says PM Trudeau
The Canadian Press/July 20, 2023
OTTAWA — Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says he is not currently planning to join the American president in inviting his Israeli counterpart for a visit. "We remain steadfast friends of Israel, but every now and then we do have to point out where we disagree," Trudeau told reporters Thursday. Trudeau is slated to speak with Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu soon, after months of strain between the two countries. Canada has expressed concern over the past year about rising violence and ajudicial reform that Ottawa argues would undermine democracy in the Jewish state. Trudeau said that reform should only be made with widespread support of Israeli society, which has protested the proposal repeatedly in large demonstrations. The plan would allow Israel's parliament to overturn decisions by the country's Supreme Court. "We're also very concerned about the judicial reforms that the Israeli government is determined to move forward with," Trudeau said in Kingston, Ont. Netanyahu is governing through a coalition with right-wing politicians who have sought to ban the Palestinian flagand called for a village in the West Bank to be "erased" after violent clashes. His government has also allowed the expansion of settlements that Canada recognizes as illegal under international law — a characterization Israel disputes — and it wants to allow Israel’s parliament to overturn decisions by the country's Supreme Court. "The violence going on right now is difficult for people across the region, both Israelis and Palestinians were calling for de-escalation and peace and working through some of the flashpoints," Trudeau said. "Canada has a long-standing position that settlements and the settlement process is illegal and we need to stand against that. The Israeli government says its judicial reform would better balance the role of judges and elected representatives, and that the rising violence stems from Palestinian rocket attacks. President Joe Biden has expressed concern about increased violence in the past month between Palestinians and Israelis, but on Mondayhe invited Netanyahu to "soon" make an official visit to the United States.
Trudeau suggested he doesn't plan to extend an invitation when he speaks with Netanyahu. "That's not on the table right now," he said. The two were slated to speak Wednesday, but the call was rescheduled. Trudeau last had a formal bilateral meeting with Netanyahu in February 2021 by phone, and spoke with his interim predecessor Naftali Bennett in March 2022. In February, senators invited the speaker of Israel's parliament to make an official visit Canada, although no details have published on when that may occur. This past April, Liberal MP Salma Zahid criticized her own party's response to police violence in Jerusalem, saying Trudeau's government needs to do beyond "bland statements" and actually create repercussions for "provocations" by Netanyahu. "Either we stand for human rights or we don't," Zahid wrote on Twitter. In May, Israeli Diaspora Affairs Minister Amichai Chikli raised eyebrows by arranging a visit to Parliament Hill without following the usual diplomatic protocols, as well as giving a speech at a private Christian college run by controversial evangelical preacher Charles McVety.

Palestinian killed after alleged car-ramming attack in West Bank
Associated Press/July 22, 2023
Israeli forces on Saturday shot and killed a Palestinian in disputed circumstances in the northern West Bank — the latest in an ongoing surge of violence that has gripped the region. The Israeli army said in a statement that two Palestinian men tried to drive a car into soldiers at Sebastia near the city of Nablus in the occupied West Bank, around midnight, but the claim could not be verified. Soldiers opened fire, killing one and wounding the other. The Palestinian Ministry of Health identified the young man killed as Fawzi Makhalfeh, 18. Palestinian media quoted the victims' family as saying the two did not target soldiers but that they were ambushed while driving and their car was riddled with bullets. The mayor of Sebastia, Mohammad Azem, said he was one of the first to arrive at the scene. He described a bloody carnage, with more than fifty bullet holes in the chassis. "He was a university student," Azem said, "it was just so brutal."
Local media reported that Makhalfeh had just passed his high school exams and was in good spirits before the shooting. The shooting came hours after a 17-year-old Palestinian was killed by Israeli fire elsewhere in the West Bank. The spiral of violence, which shows no signs of abating, is one of the worst between Israelis and Palestinians in years. More than 150 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli fire since the start of 2023 in the West Bank and east Jerusalem, according to a tally by The Associated Press. Violence between Israel and the Palestinians in the West Bank intensified early last year when Israel expanded near-nightly raids into Palestinian areas in response to a spate of Palestinian attacks against Israelis. Israel says most of those killed have been militants, but stone-throwing youths protesting army raids and others not involved in the confrontations have also been killed. Israel captured the West Bank in the 1967 Mideast war, along with the Gaza Strip and east Jerusalem. Palestinians seek those territories for their hoped-for independent state.

Hundreds of thousands march in Israel. Former security chiefs beg Netanyahu to halt legal overhaul
JERUSALEM (AP)/July 22, 2023
Tens of thousands of protesters marched into Jerusalem on Saturday evening and hundreds of thousands of Israelis took to the streets in Tel Aviv and other cities in a last-ditch show of force aimed at blocking Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's contentious judicial overhaul.
Also Saturday, more than 100 of Israel's former security chiefs signed a letter pleading with the Israeli premier to halt the legislation, and thousands of additional military reservists said they would no longer report for duty, in a protest against the plan. In scorching heat that reached 33 degrees Celsius (91 degrees Fahrenheit), the procession into Jerusalem turned the city's main entrance into a sea of blue and white Israeli flags as marchers completed the last leg of a four-day, 70 kilometer (45-mile) trek from Tel Aviv to Israel's parliament. The marchers, who grew from hundreds to thousands as the march progressed, were welcomed in Jerusalem by throngs of cheering protesters before they set up camp in rows of small white tents outside the Knesset, or parliament, ahead of Monday’s expected vote. Meanwhile, hundreds of thousands flooded the streets of the coastal city of Tel Aviv, the country's business and cultural capital, as well as in Beersheba, Haifa and Netanya. Netanyahu and his far-right allies claim the overhaul is needed to curb what they say are the excessive powers of unelected judges. But their critics say the plan will destroy the country's system of checks and balances and put it on the path toward authoritarian rule. President Joe Biden has urged Netanyahu to halt the plan and seek a broad consensus.The proposed overhaul has drawn harsh criticism from business and medical leaders, and a fast-rising number of military reservists in key units have said they will stop reporting for duty if the plan passes, raising concern that the country's security interests could be threatened. An additional 10,000 reservists announced they were suspending duty on Saturday night, according to "Brothers in Arms," a protest group representing retired soldiers. Over 100 top former security chiefs, including retired military commanders, police commissioners and heads of intelligence agencies joined those calls on Saturday, signing a letter to Netanyahu blaming him for compromising Israel’s military and urging him to halt the legislation. The signatories included Ehud Barak, a former Israeli prime minister, and Moshe Yaalon, a former army chief and defense minister. Both are political rivals of Netanyahu.
“The legislation is crushing those things shared by Israeli society, is tearing the people apart, disintegrating the IDF and inflicting fatal blows on Israel’s security,” the former officials wrote. “The legislative process violates the social contract that has existed for 75 years between the Israeli government and thousands of reserve officers and soldiers from the land, air, sea, and intelligence branches who have volunteered for many years for the reserves to defend the democratic state of Israel, and now announce with a broken heart that they are suspending their volunteer service,” the letter said.
Israel Katz, a senior Cabinet minister from Netanyahu’s Likud party, said the bill would pass one way or another on Monday. “I represent citizens who are not ready to have their voice canceled because of threats of refusal to serve” or by those blocking the airport, highways and train stations, he told Channel 12 TV. “There is a clear attempt here to use military service to force the government to change policy.”After seven straight months of the most sustained and intense demonstrations the country has ever seen, the grassroots protest movement has reached a fever pitch.
The parliament is expected to vote Monday on a measure that would limit the Supreme Court's oversight powers by preventing judges from striking down government decisions on the basis that they are “unreasonable.”Proponents say the current “reasonability” standard gives the judges excessive powers over decision making by elected officials. But critics say that removing the standard, which is invoked only in rare cases, would allow the government to pass arbitrary decisions, make improper appointments or firings and open the door to corruption. Monday's vote would mark the first major piece of legislation to be approved. The overhaul also calls for other sweeping changes aimed at curbing the powers of the judiciary, from limiting the Supreme Court’s ability to challenge parliamentary decisions, to changing the way judges are selected. Protesters, who make up a wide swath of Israeli society, see the overhaul as a power grab fueled by various personal and political grievances by Netanyahu, who is on trial for corruption charges, and his partners, who want to deepen Israel’s control of the occupied West Bank and perpetuate controversial draft exemptions for ultra-Orthodox men. In a speech Thursday, Netanyahu doubled down on the overhaul and dismissed as absurd the accusations that the plan would destroy Israel’s democratic foundations. “This is an attempt to mislead you over something that has no basis in reality,” he said. Alarmed by the growing mass of reservists refusing to serve, the country’s defense minister, Yoav Gallant, pushed for a delay in Monday’s vote, according to reports in Israeli media. It was unclear if others would join him.

Crimea governor reports attempted Ukrainian drone attack
Agence France Presse/July 22, 2023
Ukraine "attempted" a drone attack on infrastructure in the centre of Moscow-annexed Crimea on Saturday, the Russian-appointed head of the peninsula said. The claims came five days after an attack on Russia's bridge linking Crimea to the Russian mainland killed two people. "The enemy attempted a raid using drones on infrastructure facilities in the Krasnogvardeisky district of the Republic of Crimea," Sergei Aksyonov said, referring to an inland area of the Black Sea peninsula. He said emergency workers were on the scene to deal with "possible consequences." He called on Crimeans to "remain calm."Aksyonov gave no details on exactly what Kyiv attempted to hit and did not report casualties. Crimea has been targeted throughout Moscow's 17-month Ukraine offensive but attacks have in recent weeks intensified.

After Ukraine's success with US-made HIMARS, European militaries are looking for their own rocket artillery
Michael Peck/Business Insider/July 22, 2023
Ukraine's use of HIMARS against Russia has earned the US-made rocket-artillery system high praise.
Other European countries are pursuing their own rocket artillery, buying HIMARS or building new systems.
Impressed with the success of the US-made M142 HIMARS multiple rocket launcher in Ukraine, more European nations want to buy HIMARS — or develop their own version of it. German defense contractor Rheinmetall and US defense firm Lockheed Martin have partnered to offer GMARS, a replacement for Germany's aging MARS 2 multiple launch rocket system, according to Defense News. The acronym "GMARS" seems to reflect HIMARS as much as MARS 2, of which Germany has delivered several to Ukraine. MARS 2 is the European version of the US-made M270 multiple launch rocket system.
GMARS would be similar to HIMARS but bigger, with a larger chassis based on Rheinmetall's HX 8x8 truck, and would have 80% commonality with HIMARS munitions and logistics, a Lockheed Martin official told Defense News. The GMARS vehicle would be about 39 feet long vs. the 23-foot length of a HIMARS truck and carry two rocket pods instead of HIMARS' one. Meanwhile, the US State Department approved a $10 billion sale of 18 HIMARS for Poland in February. Significantly, the sale includes 45 M57 Army Tactical Missile Systems — long-range guided rockets that Ukraine has repeatedly requested but which the US has declined to provide for fear of escalating the conflict. HIMARS will help Poland "deter regional threats," the department said in an announcement. "The proposed sale of this equipment and support will not alter the basic military balance in the region."
HIMARS has a range of about 50 miles. An ATACMS projectile can reach up to 190 miles and can be fired from a HIMARS launcher, though that feature reportedly has been disabled in HIMARS systems supplied to Ukraine. The Biden administration is now debating whether to send ATACMS to Ukraine after the UK gave Ukraine its Storm Shadow missile, which has a range of more than 150 miles. (France is also sending its version of the missile.) Multiple launch rocket systems have been around since World War II, when the legendary Soviet Katyusha battered Nazi forces.
Until the 1980s, the US and its allies favored howitzers rather than MLRS, which were considered inaccurate weapons suited for firing over a large area. For the Soviets, who preferred massed firepower, and for dictators and warlords unconcerned about collateral damage, rockets were just fine.
But rocket artillery has changed. A new generation of GPS-guided rockets, such as HIMARS and Russia's Smerch and Tornado-S systems, combine the accuracy of a howitzer with the range of a rocket and have the ability to fire salvoes quickly. What was once a blunt-force weapon that pulverized city blocks and the civilians living there is now a smart weapon. That "smartness" explains the buzz around modern MLRS at least as much as their actual military effectiveness, which is often overstated. HIMARS initially proved devastating against Russian forces that placed their command posts and ammunitions dumps too close to the front line. But Russia adapted and moved its command and supply centers out of HIMARS range, though at the price of compromising some efficiency. Russian GPS jammers have also hampered HIMARS and the Joint Direct Attack Munition glide bombs that the US has given Ukraine. Rocket artillery can't replace howitzers, which offer some advantages, such as the ability to fire barrages continuously for hours. Still, rocket artillery is certain to join howitzers as the backbone of Western artillery. Modern MLRS rockets have greater range than howitzer shells — although long-range rocket-propelled howitzer shells are being developed — and in an era when battlefield footage is spread wide, far, and fast, there will always be something impressive about the fiery trail of a rocket heading toward its target. Michael Peck is a defense writer whose work has appeared in Forbes, Defense News, Foreign Policy magazine, and other publications. He holds a master's in political science. Follow him on Twitter and LinkedIn.

Bulgaria agrees to send heavy military equipment to Ukraine for the first time since the invasion
SOFIA, Bulgaria (AP)/July 22, 2023
Bulgaria has agreed to provide the Ukrainian army with some 100 armored personnel carriers, marking a turnaround in the NATO member's policy on sending military equipment to Kyiv following the appointment of a new, pro-Western government. Direct arms supplies were rejected by previous interim governments, appointed by President Rumen Radev. He is sympathetic to Russia and recently said that Ukraine was to be blamed for the war and that supplying arms to Ukraine only prolongs the conflict. The parliament in Sofia late Friday approved by 148 votes to 52 the government’s proposal to make the first shipment of heavy military equipment to Ukraine since the beginning of the war. “This equipment is no longer necessary for the needs of Bulgaria, and it can be of serious support to Ukraine in its battle to preserve the country’s independence and territorial integrity after the unjustified and unprovoked Russian aggression,” the Parliament’s decision said. The Soviet-made armored vehicles were delivered in the 1980s to Bulgaria — then an ally of the Soviet Union in the Warsaw Pact. Bulgaria, which joined NATO in 2004, still maintains stocks of Soviet-designed weapons and has numerous factories making ammunition for them. Although Parliament approved in the principle at the end of last year the provision of military aid to Ukraine, it left the decision about the parameters of such aid to the executive, and amid political instability in Bulgaria over the past months, previous administrations had rejected the idea. But the new government, appointed in June, has now moved to send the armored vehicles to Ukraine along with armaments and spare parts. “We must give armored personnel carriers to Ukraine because Ukrainians are fighting not only for their freedom but also for ours,” said liberal lawmaker Ivaylo Mirchev. The decision sparked criticism from the Socialist party and pro-Moscow nationalists from the Revival party who voted against it. “I don’t think we can help Ukraine with military decisions and sending military equipment, but we can help it as a peace mediator, as a country that has specific relations with both sides,” said the deputy speaker of the National Assembly and of the Socialist Party, Kristian Vigenin, on Saturday.

Ukraine wants ships to keep exporting its grain despite Russian attacks. Some are interested
The Canadian Press/July 22, 2023
LONDON (AP) — Russia has repeatedly fired missiles and drones at Ukrainian ports key to sending grain to the world. Moscow has declared large swaths of the Black Sea dangerous for shipping. Even the U.S. said ships are at risk of being targeted. There is still interest from ship owners in carrying Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea — if they can mitigate the risk, according to a major shipping group. And that's a big if. Despite the warnings and port attacks, which have leveled grain infrastructure, “shipping has always been very, very resilient in the face of these sorts of risks,” said John Stawpert, senior manager of environment and trade for the International Chamber of Shipping, which represents 80% of the world’s commercial fleet. This week's strikes came after Russia pulled out of a wartime accord that the U.N. and Turkey brokered last year to provide safeguards for shipping companies in a bid to end a global food crisis. Ukraine — which, along with Russia, is a major supplier of wheat, barley and vegetable oil to developing nations — shipped 32.9 million metric tons of grain to the world and supplied 80% of the World Food Program's wheat for humanitarian aid so far this year.
Following the grain deal's collapse, Ukraine sent a letter to the U.N. International Maritime Organization establishing its own temporary shipping corridor, saying it would “provide guarantees of compensation for damage.”But Russia warned this week that ships traversing parts of the Black Sea would assume to be carrying weapons to Ukraine. In a seeming tit-for-tat move, Ukraine said vessels heading to Russian Black Sea ports would be considered “carrying military cargo with all the associated risks.”Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Vershinin said Friday that the navy will check vessels to ensure they are not carrying weapons before taking other action. Continued shipments from Ukraine will depend on vessels getting insurance for potential damage or injuries and deaths to crew members and how the safety risks play out. Ships that were exporting Ukrainian grain can be worth tens of millions of dollars, have 20 to 22 sailors on board and carry food also worth tens of millions, according to Jayendu Krishna, deputy head of maritime advisers at Drewry, a maritime research consultancy. All ships go through threat assessments to allow crews to protect against problems before setting sail, which have grown in importance as ships deal with piracy, terrorism and war zones. For the Black Sea, the risks for ships would be: explosive mines, becoming collateral damage at ports or being targeted themselves, which Stawpert said would be “a huge escalation.”“The million-dollar question is whether the threats to merchant shipping are serious and whether they’ll be followed through. And there’s no firm way of knowing that until it actually happens,” Stawpert said, adding that he has not yet heard from insurers. With Russia's warnings, “it is unlikely that underwriters will want to cover that risk,” said the International Union of Marine Insurance, which represents national and international marine insurers. The group thought it was unlikely owners would put their ships and crews in danger, echoed by Munro Anderson, head of operations for Vessel Protect, which assesses war risks at sea and provides insurance with backing from Lloyd’s, whose members make up the world’s largest insurance marketplace. He didn't directly speak to whether underwriting businesses like his would take on the risk but said without protections for ships like they had under the grain deal, "safety conditions cannot be guaranteed.”
Krishna said the only way to mitigate risk was through insurance from the 12 providers making up the International Group of P&I Clubs, which offers liability coverage for about 90% of the world's cargo shipped by sea, according to its website. “P&I clubs will be wary of even insuring” without a guarantee from the U.N. or some other body, he said. The International Group of P&I Clubs said its CEO was the only one who could comment and that he was on vacation. Individual clubs either declined to comment or did not respond to calls or emails.The head of the seafarers division of the International Transport Workers’ Federation, a union for crew members, said the question should be whether it’s too risky right now to ask sailors to go to Ukrainian ports. “The minds of seafarers won’t be on questions of insurance cover, but more likely on whether their lives are safe amidst the fighting,” David Heindel said in a statement, adding that crews “should never be targeted just for doing their job.”In the meantime, some analysts expect most of what Ukraine was going to ship through the Black Sea will get out by road, rail and river through Europe, but the transportation costs will be higher and likely lead to lower production by Ukrainian farmers. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said Thursday that Ukraine has made progress in improving those routes but that the best way to export grain is through the Black Sea. That's how 75% of the country's grain got to the world before the war, analysts say. Plus, the routes have created divisions in the European Union, with five countries saying Wednesday that they want to extend a ban on Ukrainian grain imports through the end of the year. While Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria would keep allowing grain to move through their borders to world markets, their bans could create challenges like infrastructure backups that might give preference to local grain before Ukraine's products, said Carlos Mera, head of agricultural commodities markets at Rabobank. The five countries say Ukrainian grain has flooded their markets, leading to a glut that drove down prices for their farmers and stirring protests. They signed a joint declaration ahead of EU talks next week, urging officials to work out ways of getting Ukrainian food to the world without hurting their agricultural industries. It's another hurdle for Ukraine — and possibly for developing countries already struggling with high local food prices, which are helping drive hunger. Wheat prices have risen about 17% over the last week, and poorer nations that are forced to pay more on world markets for the ingredient for staples like bread and pasta means “many millions of people being pushed into food insecurity,” Mera said.
Courtney Bonnell, The Associated Press

Zelenskiy, Stoltenberg discuss opening Black Sea grain export corridor
LBCI/July 22, 2023
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy announced on Saturday that he had a phone call with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg regarding the "opening" of a grain export corridor in the Black Sea, just a few days after the agreement with Russia on this matter came to an end. Zelenskiy stated in a tweet, "We have identified... with Stoltenberg the priorities and necessary future steps to open the grain corridor in the Black Sea and utilize it sustainably."

Hungary’s Orban Taunts Romania, Directs Barbs at Western Values
Andras Gergely and Zselyke Csaky/Bloomberg/July 22, 2023
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban made taunted Romania on Saturday, deepening a dispute over Transylvania and the ethnic Hungarians who live there, while also deriding Western values. Addressing supporters at an annual retreat in Baile Tusnad in central Romania, Orban said he’d received a note from the government in Bucharest asking him to avoid certain themes regarding Romania’s national symbols and territory. “We never claimed these were Romanian territorial units,” Orban said of Transylvania at the start of what is his signature address each year. The Romanian government is preparing a response to the comments, a spokesman said when contacted by Bloomberg News. The European Union and NATO member countries have a history of tension over the more than 1 million ethnic Hungarians who live in neighboring Romania, many of whom can vote in Hungary’s elections and tend to support Orban. At the same time, Hungary will support Romania’s accession to the Schengen travel area when it takes over the EU’s rotating presidency in July 2024, Orban said. Orban has regularly alienated other NATO allies by continuing to support Russian President Vladimir Putin after the invasion of Ukraine, and often relishes picking fights with neighbors and EU peers.
‘Migration, LGBTQ and War’
He said on Saturday that Russia cannot be cut from the rest of the world, and equated Western values with “migration, LGBTQ, and war.” He added that Asia, and China in particular, “stands in front of us in full great power garb,” re-purposing claims from last year’s speech about the impending demise of the West, and primarily the US. Romanian television channels showed a few dozen members of a nationalist association protesting against Orban’s presence in Baile Tusnad. They held Romanian flags and banners that read “One thing is eternal, Transylvania - Romanian land,” while being monitored by riot police.
In contrast to his remarks on Saturday, earlier in the week Orban had a surprise lunch with new Romanian Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu, who took up his post in June. It was the first high-level meeting between the neighbors’ top officials to take place in Romania for over a decade. The meeting ended with a statement from the Romanian government that it wants to maintain “an open, positive and constructive approach” between the two countries, and with Orban tweeting a photo and a catchphrase from the movie Casablanca.
--With assistance from Irina Vilcu.

Protesters try to storm Green Zone over burning of Quran, Iraq flag in Denmark
AP/July 22, 2023
Hundreds of protesters attempted to storm Baghdad's heavily fortified Green Zone, which houses foreign embassies and the seat of Iraq's government, early Saturday following reports of the burning of a Quran carried out by a ultranationalist group in front of the Iraqi Embassy in Copenhagen.
They were pushed back by security forces, who blocked the Jumhuriya bridge leading to the Green Zone, preventing them from reaching the Danish Embassy. The protest came two days after people angered by the planned burning of the Islamic holy book in Sweden stormed the Swedish Embassy in Baghdad. Protesters occupied the diplomatic post for several hours, waving flags and signs showing the influential Iraqi Shiite cleric and political leader Muqtada al-Sadr, and setting a small fire. The embassy staff had been evacuated a day earlier. Hours later, Iraq's prime minister cut diplomatic ties with Sweden in protest over the desecration of the Quran. An Iraqi asylum-seeker who burned a copy of the Quran during a demonstration last month in Stockholm had threatened to do the same thing again Thursday but ultimately stopped short of setting fire to the book. He did, however, kick and step on it, and did the same with an Iraqi flag and a photo of Sadr and of Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. On Friday afternoon, thousands protested peacefully in Iraq and other Muslim-majority countries. Also on Friday, according to Danish media reports, members of ultranationalist group Danske Patrioter burned a copy of the Quran and an Iraqi flag in front of the Iraqi Embassy in Copenhagen and livestreamed the action on Facebook. The incident prompted the protests in Baghdad overnight. Chanting in support of Sadr and carrying images of the prominent leader and the flag associated with his movement, along with the Iraqi flag, hundreds of protesters attempted to enter the Green Zone and clashed with security forces before dispersing. In a statement on Saturday, the Iraqi Ministry of Foreign Affairs condemned "in strong and repeated terms, the incident of abuse against the Holy Quran and the flag of the Republic of Iraq in front of the Iraqi Embassy in Denmark." It called the international community "to stand urgently and responsibly towards these atrocities that violate social peace and coexistence around the world." the statement read. Another protest is scheduled to take place in Baghdad at 6 pm.

Greece: Emergency boat evacuations from Rhodes as fires rage on
LBCI/July 22, 2023
More than 20 boats joined the emergency evacuation efforts from the Greek island of Rhodes on Saturday, where a wildfire has been raging out of control for five days. The Greek Coast Guard reported that the boats are loading people from the beaches of Kiotari and Lardos in the eastern part of the island, which is a popular tourist destination. Three coast guard vessels led the operation, involving over 20 private boats, while a Greek Navy vessel was also heading to the area.

At least 16 people killed in Nyala in intense artillery exchange
LBCI/July 22, 2023
Sixteen people were killed in Nyala, the capital of South Darfur, as shells fell on their homes during clashes between the army and the Rapid Support Forces, according to the Independent Darfur Lawyers Association on Saturday.
The association stated, "The city of Nyala witnessed extensive exchange of artillery shelling between the army and the Rapid Support Forces in the middle of residential neighborhoods.” It continued, "The indiscriminate shelling resulted in the death of 16 martyrs, according to preliminary statistics."

Shrinking budget: UN agency raises alarm over Syrian refugee relief in Jordan
Arab News/July 22, 2023
AMMAN: The UNHCR has warned of “serious consequences” for refugees in Jordan if no adequate funding is added to its shrinking budget. The UN refugee agency has issued a recent appeal calling for “immediate” assistance after other agencies announced plans to reduce health services and food help in camps in Jordan. commented on a UNHCR report which said that the UN refugee agency had only received 32 percent of its financial needs for 2023, or “$125.7 million of its annual budget of $390.11 million.”In light of this 68 percent deficit, Dominik Bartsch, the agency’s representative to Jordan, has warned of a “humanitarian crisis and serious consequences for refugees and host communities.”He added: “The current lack of funding for the refugee response is undermining the great achievements made in over a decade.”Now, there is an imminent risk that the situation is sliding back into a humanitarian crisis, with serious consequences for refugees and host communities. He said that there was growing concern that Jordan’s ability to include refugees in healthcare and education systems might be eroded. “Sustained support over the years has allowed Syrian refugees to access the labor market,” Bartsch said.
“Now, there is an imminent risk that the situation is sliding back into a humanitarian crisis, with serious consequences for refugees and host communities.” Bartsch praised Jordanian efforts in past years in giving assistance to refugees.
The country issued a record 62,000 work permits to Syrians in 2021, according to UNHCR. This was a result of the international community committing funding and expanded trade facilitation under the Jordan Compact, an initiative to improve access to education and legal employment for Syrians forced to flee their homes. Bartsch added: “Jordan has done so much, and donors need to recognize what is at risk.”He called for a “determined and coordinated action … to keep the success story in Jordan alive.”Bartsch said that the lack of assistance was exacerbating the vulnerability of refugees. He added: “The number of refugee families who cannot pay their rent and are at risk of eviction from their homes rose by 66 percent from December 2022 to February 2023.”The representative warned of another wave of refugees toward Europe should no “immediate action” be taken to improve their financial situation in Jordan.
He said: “Another consequence of lack of assistance is that it may push refugees onto irregular routes toward Europe. UNHCR is concerned about their protection after leaving Jordan as they are exposed to exploitation, abuse, and death.
“The recent shipwreck off Greece was a stark reminder that people who do not see a perspective, make desperate choices.”The World Food Programme has recently announced a reduction of the value of its monthly food assistance for refugees in Jordan’s refugee camps, from around $32 to $21.
The UNHCR has said that a number of nongovernmental organizations providing health services have left Zaatari and Azraq camps in Jordan, leading to serious shortages and quality issues of remaining facilities.
Jordan has said it is providing refuge to about 1.3 million Syrians, including some 670,000 officially registered with the UNHCR as refugees, making the kingdom host to the world’s second-largest population of Syrian refugees per capita after Lebanon. Turkiye has accepted 3.6 million Syrian refugees, while Lebanon hosts almost 1 million, according to the UNHCR. Jordan hosts the Zaatari camp, the largest in the Middle East, and the Azraq camp. Most Syrians in Jordan live in cities and urban centers, however, where they work in certain industries.
While Jordan has been stepping up efforts for a voluntary return of Syrian refugees, a recent UNHCR study found that only 0.8 percent of them are willing to go back home. The survey revealed that around 97 percent of Syrian refugees in Jordan have no intention of returning home in the next 12 months due to security and economic concerns, including a lack of housing and basic amenities in Syria. Jordan has announced that it has begun coordinating with the Syrian government and relevant UN organizations to facilitate the voluntary return of some 1,000 Syrian refugees. The decision was announced on May 1 following a landmark meeting in Amman of foreign ministers from Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Iraq, and Jordan. Syrian Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad also attended.

Biden names CIA Director William Burns to his cabinet
Reuters/22 Jul 2023
U.S. President Joe Biden on Friday said he had asked CIA Director William Burns to become a member of his cabinet, elevating one of his closest advisers on national security and foreign policy. "Under his leadership, the CIA is delivering a clear-eyed, long-term approach to our nation’s top national security challenges," Biden said in a statement, referring to Burns' approach to Russia's invasion of Ukraine and U.S. competition with China. The move was reported earlier by the Washington Post, which said it was largely symbolic and would not give Burns any new authorities. Bonnie Glaser, head of the Indo-Pacific program at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, said the appointment reflected Biden's confidence in Burns and his career experience. Burns, who became the first career diplomat to lead the CIA in 2021, "has made a significant contribution to national security decision-making, especially with regard to Russia and China" Glaser said. Burns is not the first CIA director to attain cabinet status. Former President Bill Clinton also named his CIA directors - John Deutch and George Tenet - to serve in his cabinet, as did Ronald Reagan with William Casey. Daniel Byman, director of the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service, saw it as testament to Burn's "incredible effectiveness rather than a broader decision about the role of the CIA in cabinet.""Burns has been a very important part of Biden's foreign policy, serving as of course an intelligence leader but also as a diplomat to Ukraine, the Middle East, and other parts of the world," he said. "Biden wants to draw on Burns' knowledge and skill as he shapes his foreign policy." A White House official said it was common for presidents to vary the agencies represented in their cabinets.For instance, former President Barack Obama elevated the head of the Small Business Administration to the cabinet and Clinton added Federal Emergency Management Agency head James Witt to his cabinet.

Pope Francis expected to meet with abuse victims at World Youth Day in Portugal
Vatican News/July 22, 2023
Pope Francis is set to meet with victims of sexual abuse when he travels to Portugal for World Youth Day next month. The Holy Father will meet with victims as part of his multi-day visit to Lisbon, Cardinal Manuel Clemente, the patriarch of Lisbon, confirmed in a conversation with journalists July 20. The location and date of the meeting would not be publicly announced to protect the privacy of the victims, Archdiocese of Lisbon Auxiliary Bishop Americo Aguiar told Reuters. A commission investigation had announced earlier in the year that nearly 5,000 children had been sexually abused by Church officials in Portugal over the course of about seven decades. The 2023 World Youth Day will be taking place in Lisbon Aug. 1–6. The five-day event is celebrated internationally every few years, with most meetings since the 1980s taking place in Europe. Francis, throughout his pontificate, has been outspoken in his condemnation of child sexual abuse among Church leaders. Last month he wrote to the president of Bolivia expressing “sorrow and …shame and dismay” over abuse in that country. In 2019 the pope promulgated the Church legislation Vos Estis Lux Mundi meant to address sexual abuse in the Church; earlier this year he updated those rules and made them permanent. The Holy Father will be present in Portugal next month for most of the event, dividing his time between World Youth Day functions and meetings with government leaders. Francis is also planning to visit the Shrine of Our Lady of Fatima, with the pope reportedly intending to pray the rosary with sick young adults at the shrine’s Chapel of Apparitions. The pope is scheduled to celebrate Mass on the final day of the event. World Youth Day’s launch is popularly attributed to St. John Paul II, whose 1984 Palm Sunday gathering to mark the Youth Jubilee of the Holy Year of Redemption drew hundreds of thousands of young participants from around the world.

Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on July 22-23/2023
Iran's Mullahs Escalating Aggression in Latin America, Middle East
Majid Rafizadeh/Gatestone Institute/July 22, 2023
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/120359/120359/
Thanks to the appeasement policies of the Biden and Obama Administrations, the ruling mullahs of Iran, called by the US State Department the top state sponsor of terrorism, have now also emerged as a major arms exporter. Moreover, coupled with imminent nuclear bombs, they appear determined to ramp up their exports even further.
Defense Minister Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Ashtiani, echoed a similar message. He pointed out that Iran has "no restriction" on exporting military equipment to other countries, including Venezuela.
Due to the Biden Administration's appeasement and Obama's nuclear deal, the Iranian regime has doubled down on enriching uranium to 84% (weapons grade is 90% ); vowed to become "one of the world's largest arms exporters"; caused former US allies Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to turn to the Chinese Communist Party for protection; escalated aggression in the Middle East to push the US out of the area; and expanded Iran's military presence in Latin America to threaten the United States.
How is the Biden Administration responding? It is reportedly threatening Israel, which Iran's former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, on December 14, 2001, called a "one-bomb country": If this "one bomb country," roughly the size of New Jersey (8,700 sq. mi; 22,600 sq km) does not go along with the Biden Administration's plan to allow Iran to have as many nuclear weapons as it likes – while the US is bribing Iran's mullahs with up to $100 billion please not to use them on the Biden Administration's watch -- the US will "reassess" its diplomatic ties with Israel.
What degree of dementia is that?
Thanks to the appeasement policies of the Biden and Obama Administrations, the ruling mullahs of Iran have now emerged as a major arms exporter. Moreover, coupled with imminent nuclear bombs, they appear determined to ramp up their exports even further. Pictured: Then US Secretary of State John Kerry (L) meets with then Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif at the United Nations April 27, 2015, in New York City. (Photo by Jason DeCrow/Pool/Getty Images)
Thanks to the appeasement policies of the Biden and Obama Administrations, the ruling mullahs of Iran, called by the US State Department the top state sponsor of terrorism, have now also emerged as a major arms exporter. Moreover, coupled with imminent nuclear bombs, they appear determined to ramp up their exports even further.
"Introducing the Islamic Republic's defense and military capabilities and sharing them [with friendly countries] can expand the country's defense relations and strengthen deterrence," the Iranian Armed Forces Chief of General Staff, Major General Mohammad Bagheri, recently bragged to Iran's state-controlled Mehr News at a gathering of Foreign Ministry officials and ambassadors in Tehran.
"The Iranian Armed Forces are fully prepared to upgrade the level of ties in various fields, including the wholesale export of defense and military equipment as well as training, exercises, and the practical transfer of experience."
Defense Minister Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Ashtiani, echoed a similar message. He pointed out that Iran has "no restriction" on exporting military equipment to other countries, including Venezuela.
"The future world is a different world. The new world order geometry is altering with the emergence of several new powers, particularly in Asia and in different fields."
Iran currently possesses the largest and most diverse ballistic missile program in the Middle East. No country other than Iran has acquired long-range ballistic missiles before obtaining nuclear weapons. While ballistic missiles can be used for either offensive or defensive purposes, the sophisticated ones are mainly developed as delivery vehicles for nuclear weapons.
According to John Kirby, Coordinator for Strategic Communications at the US National Security Council:
"As of May, Russia received hundreds of one-way attack [unmanned aerial vehicles], as well as UAV production-related equipment, from Iran. We are releasing a graphic that shows how Iranian drones are being transferred to Russia: the drones are built in Iran, shipped across the Caspian Sea... and then used operationally by Russian forces against Ukraine. Russia and Iran's actions are violations of their obligations under UN Security Council Resolution 2231 by participating in these transfers of drones from Iran to Russia without UN Security Council approval."
The regime's rise as an exporter of weapons seems to have begun with then President Barack Obama's 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal. Among the many rewards that the Obama Administration offered to the Iranian regime was one setting October 18, 2020 as the date when the arms embargo on Iran would be removed and allowing the regime to export, import, buy and sell weapons legally, however it might wish. The arms embargo had been previously placed on Iran by the five members of the UN Security Council in 2007, during the Bush administration. The embargo encompassed a wide range of weapons, including large-caliber artillery, drones, combat aircraft, battle tanks, armored combat vehicles, attack helicopters, missiles, missile launchers and warships.
The second gift to the ruling mullahs of Iran is the presidency of Joe Biden. The Biden Administration's obsequious leadership and the removal of the arms embargo may well have emboldened the Iranian regime to ratchet up its import and export of weapons.
Iran's ruling mullahs are also currently boasting that China is another customer for their weapons. "Our power has grown to levels where China is waiting in line to buy 15,000 of our drones," a senior official from Iran's Intelligence Ministry recently said at the Imam Khomeini International University in Qazvin. "Since the day we turned to the East," he added, "the West could not bear it and an example was the war in Ukraine."
"Today we have reached a point that 22 world countries are demanding to purchase unmanned aircraft from Iran," Major General Yahya Rahim Safavi proclaimed at Imam Hussein Military University in Tehran.
Iran's regime has also been focusing on the proliferation and export of long- and short-range precision-guided ballistic missiles. According to a report by Forbes:
"Russia also wants Iran's Fateh-110 and Zolfaghar short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) with ranges between 186 and 435 miles, respectively. A large order of such missiles could give Russia some substitution for its arsenal of ballistic and cruise missiles, which has reportedly dwindled, enabling it to sustain its bombardment of Ukrainian cities."
Due to the Biden Administration's appeasement and Obama's nuclear deal, the Iranian regime has doubled down on enriching uranium to 84% (weapons grade is 90% ); vowed to become "one of the world's largest arms exporters"; caused former US allies Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to turn to the Chinese Communist Party for protection; escalated aggression in the Middle East to push the US out of the area; and expanded Iran's military presence in Latin America to threaten the United States.
How is the Biden Administration responding? It is reportedly threatening Israel, which Iran's former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, on December 14, 2001, called a "one-bomb country": If this "one bomb country," roughly the size of New Jersey (8,700 sq. mi; 22,600 sq km) does not go along with the Biden Administration's plan to allow Iran to have as many nuclear weapons as it likes – while the US is bribing Iran's mullahs with up to $100 billion please not to use them on the Biden Administration's watch -- the US will "reassess" its diplomatic ties with Israel.
What degree of dementia is that?
*Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a business strategist and advisor, Harvard-educated scholar, political scientist, board member of Harvard International Review, and president of the International American Council on the Middle East. He has authored several books on Islam and US Foreign Policy. He can be reached at Dr.Rafizadeh@Post.Harvard.Edu
© 2023 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

From camping trips to the cold shoulder, why the Middle East's most powerful friends fell out
James Rothwell/The Telegraph/July 22/2023
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/120370/120370/
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has not spoken to Emirati President Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan for six months
They seemed to be the best of friends when they embarked on a camping and falconry trip in the Saudi desert to discuss matters of state, only seven years ago.
But this week, an explosive US media report has exposed a bitter rift between the leaders of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates [UAE], raising concerns that their rivalry could spill over into open hostility.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has not spoken to Emirati President Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan for six months, according to the Wall Street Journal, which cited multiple sources close to the pair.
The Crown Prince is also alleged to have threatened a Qatar-style blockade of the UAE during an off-the-record briefing with Saudi reporters in December, warning: “They will see what I can do.”
Saudi and Emirati officials have sought to play down the inflammatory details in the report and insist that relations between the two countries are strong.
A source close to the Saudi leadership stressed that rivalry between close allies is nothing new, citing the occasionally stormy partnership of the United States and the United Kingdom.
The relationship between the two Gulf states remains stable but may not always feel comfortable, they said.
They added that there were no disagreements between the two states on how to tackle major regional conflicts, such as Syria and Yemen, though both are pursuing their interests.
But the claims suggest that a close relationship between the two men, who are better known by their initials MBS and MBZ, has gone sour as they struggle to fill a power vacuum in the Middle East left by the Biden Administration.
“These are two highly ambitious people who want to be key players in the region and the go-to players,” a senior US official told the Wall Street Journal, which also interviewed officials from Gulf states and former US intelligence agents for its report.
“On some level, they still collaborate. Now, neither seems comfortable with the other being on the same pedestal. On balance, it’s not helpful to us for them to be at each other’s throats,” the official added.
Since the US reduced its engagement in the Middle East, Mohammed bin Salman has been trying to present himself as the next major power player in the region.
In recent months, he led the Arab world’s efforts to normalise relations with Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad, who in May addressed an Arab League summit for the first time in a decade.
The process had actually been started several years earlier by the United Arab Emirates, which reopened its Damascus embassy back in 2018, but Riyadh appears to be taking much of the credit for the move.
The Crown Prince also sought help from China in a major thaw in relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran that will reopen their embassies and potentially forge an end to the ongoing war in Yemen, where Riyadh and Tehran back opposing sides.
The series of diplomatic coups appears to have frustrated MBZ, who not so long ago was more of a mentor than a rival to the Saudi ruler.
The Emirati leader is said to have played a key role in lobbying the Trump Administration in favor of MBS when he was the deputy Crown Prince - and helped to secure Mr. Trump’s high-profile visit to Saudi Arabia in 2017.
'Frustrated': Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan - Getty Images Europe
But the existing rivalries go far deeper than diplomacy. Both Gulf states are competing for global investment and want their capitals to be the home of choice for wealthy, powerful Western firms and expats.
Dubai currently has the edge, but Saudi Arabia has launched a string of investment and construction projects, such as the Neom mega-city, which aim to make the country far more attractive to foreigners.
When MBS sought to modernize his ultra-conservative kingdom, the Wall Street Journal reported, he sought counsel from MBZ and hired the same consultants which the UAE had used for a similar project a decade earlier.
In economic terms, both Gulf states are increasingly clashing over oil production, while MBS has launched a second national airline to compete with UAE carrier Emirates.
Complementarity or competition?
The United States is said to be concerned that the Gulf power struggle may weaken efforts to build a security coalition against arch-foe Iran and could delay work on resolving the Yemen conflict.
Sir John Jenkins, the former UK ambassador to Saudi Arabia, said it was no surprise that rivalries were heating up but that this wouldn’t necessarily lead to a major blow-up between MBS and MBZ.
“MBS wants to turn [Saudi Arabia] in some ways into a supercharged version of the UAE, that complementarity now looks like competition. It can be managed - as long as both sides are happy to compromise,” he said.
1A UAE government spokesman denied that there was a rift between the two leaders.
“Allegations concerning strained relations between the United Arab Emirates and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia are categorically false and lack foundation,” they told The Telegraph.
The Telegraph approached the Saudi authorities for comment but did not immediately receive a response.
“The UAE is a close regional partner of Saudi Arabia, and our policies converge on a wide range of issues of mutual interest,” a Saudi official told the Wall Street Journal when approached for comment about the alleged rift.

Support from Israeli expats offers big boost to protesters
Yossi Mekelberg/Arab News/July 22, 2023
If there is behavior you would not normally associate with Israeli expatriates and members of Jewish communities around the world, it is vociferous criticism of Israel, even of administrations whose behavior through the years they have felt deeply aggrieved by. Any such criticism is usually confined to conversations within immediate families or social circles, not shared in public with the wider society.
There has always been a mentality of not wanting to “wash dirty laundry in public,” and some sort of submissiveness to the decisions and actions of the Israeli government. Thanks to the current government, however, this approach has changed and protests against its attempted judicial coup continue to take place frequently in places such as New York, Los Angeles, London, Paris, Berlin and even as far away as Sydney.
There is no single answer to why this specific Israeli administration, unlike all the others before it, has managed to provoke such opposition and anger among Israeli expats, as well as from more liberal elements in Jewish communities.
Yet two things clearly unite the protesters. The first is an understanding that the 2023 version of the Israeli government is a threat to the very values upon which — at least declaratively speaking — the country was founded and are still held sacrosanct. This is true because so many of this government’s actions are endangering its long-term survival. The second is a recognition that the actions of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government are harming the bond between the Jewish state and Israelis and Jews who live outside Israel. The actions are challenging the very foundations of any willingness among these communities to support a country that is on a journey toward authoritarianism.
Bear in mind that supporting Israel, regardless of the state of its domestic affairs, is in any case becoming more challenging for many as a result of its 56-year occupation of the West Bank and Gaza, which continues to deprive Palestinians of their national and human rights. But this issue has, for now and for tactical reasons, been parked by the leaders of the protests in order to keep the pro-democratic camp united.
As is the case with the protests taking place inside Israel, an impressive leadership structure, the members of which are all volunteers, has emerged organically in other countries. It is made up of a group of people from different walks of life who for months have dedicated almost every waking hour to rallying support for those battling to preserve democracy at home. They are doing so with creativity and great political astuteness.
By now, there is enough evidence of the effectiveness of these protests around the world and of how they are annoying Israeli officials. In one infamous incident, a member of the Knesset who is one of the driving forces within the coalition government, and a very unpleasant one, violently snatched a megaphone from the hands of a female demonstrator in New York, where the politician was participating in Israel’s 75th Independence Day celebrations.
This loss of nerve by a leading member of the Israeli government served only to energize the protest movement in New York and elsewhere. In London, for example, a group of protesters gathered outside the Israeli ambassador’s residence equipped with megaphones, not only to protest against the judicial coup, but as an act of defiance against a vile and violent attempt to silence their compatriot on the other side of the Atlantic Ocean.
Many Israeli expats who take part in the protest rallies have paid their dues to Israel by serving in its military or paying their taxes.
Earlier this year, after forming his sixth government in late December, Netanyahu and his wife, Sarah, found solace every weekend in traveling abroad. Their trips offered a brief respite from the prime minister’s corruption trial and the weekly protests that gradually became a daily occurrence, and indeed from a coalition government that is as much Netanyahu’s worst nightmare as it is for most Israeli citizens. These junkets came at vast expense to the public purse. Off to Rome, Paris, Berlin and London they jetted, in quick succession, allegedly on official visits — but given that Israeli officials do not work on the Jewish sabbath, much of their purpose was to recuperate through shopping sprees and enjoyment of good food, some of which Netanyahu’s coalition partners would not necessarily approve.
Much to the surprise of the couple, however, everywhere they went they were confronted by protesters. Not only were they in possession of accurate information about the couple’s whereabouts, they were equipped with, yes, megaphones and whistles, which they used to remind the prime minister that what he is doing to the country is utterly shameful — the Hebrew word for which, Busha, sounds even more powerful — and that democracy will prevail long after he is gone.
After several of these whirlwind weekend trips, and protests, the Netanyahus stopped taking them, most probably to avoid facing such humiliation abroad.
Some people, even among those who support the pro-democratic demonstrators, have asked whether it is legitimate for individuals who live abroad to protest against an Israeli government and to do it so publicly and vocally.
Frankly, I believe it is indeed legitimate — and in the spirit of full disclosure, I myself have participated in some of these protests — because freedom of expression is a basic right.
Many of the Israelis who take part in these rallies have paid their dues to Israel by serving in its military or paying their taxes year-in, year-out, so they have supported the Israeli economy and society during their residences abroad. Many do not intend to live in other countries permanently, and if and when they decide to return to Israel they would like to find themselves in a country that has not changed beyond all recognition — and much for the worse.
For too long it was expected, even demanded, of Israelis in Jewish communities abroad that they support whatever actions were taken by Israel’s leadership and avoid any criticism of it, even if such support left those communities facing moral and ideological dilemmas, or friction with other segments of the societies in which they live.
For most of the time since the Jewish state was established, this was indeed the case. The exhilaration and enthusiasm created by fulfilling the Zionist dream led many people to turn a blind eye to Israel’s faults, whether it was the Nakba, the post-1967 occupation, widespread corruption, or how its democratic system has recently been plunged into a downward spiral. Now, however, demographically and perceptually, there has been a profound change, which the current judicial coup has only underlined, and which has accelerated existing trends. It is estimated that about 1 million Israelis live abroad, the vast majority of them in the US, and unlike many members of the current coalition government, they served in the armed forces and are expected to do so in the future. They continue to contribute to their home country’s economy and society, and their advocacy for Israel has been invaluable. Therefore, there is no requirement for them to remain silent and stand idly by while their home country is hijacked by a group of anti-democratic and corrupt political pyromaniacs. The main battle to safeguard Israel’s democracy will be fought by those protesting en masse across Israel itself, but the protests in other countries are providing Israelis at home with a significant tail wind, sending them the clear message that they are not alone in their just, and winnable, battle.
• Yossi Mekelberg is professor of international relations and an associate fellow of the MENA Program at Chatham House. He is a regular contributor to the international written and electronic media.
Twitter: @YMekelberg

Israeli recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over the Western Sahara
Zaid M. Belbagi/Arab News/July 22, 2023
In a seismic announcement this week, Israel recognized Moroccan sovereignty over the Western Sahara. This long-awaited development was a requirement for Morocco’s agreeing to join the 2020 Abraham Accords, the normalization agreements between Israel and a number of Arab states.
Though the recognition was not immediately forthcoming, its arrival this week follows a similar announcement by the US, and recent support from Spain and Germany for Morocco’s autonomy plan. A vast territory covering more than 250,000 sq. km, the Western Sahara, otherwise known as Morocco’s Southern Provinces, accounts for almost 40 percent of Moroccan territory.
Soon to be home to the largest port in the country — and if Morocco’s bid to host the 2030 World Cup is successful, the location of the opening match of the tournament — the territory is very much sharing in the development that is taking place in the rest of the country. Where a low-scale conflict once persisted for decades, the Rabat region is now attracting three times the level of investment in areas in the north of the country. These economic realities reflect its growing role as a regional hub that is unmistakably Moroccan.
Moroccan control over the territory has long been politically contentious, in Rabat and in other regional capitals. Often described as an unresolved post-colonial open wound, the reality is that it is impossible for Morocco, which lost a third of its historical Eastern territory with the 20th century French creation of Algeria and Mauritania, to relinquish the area.
Long supported by Algeria, the Sahrawi cause of the rebel Polisario group took on a Cold War character, as much like today, Algiers endeared itself to Moscow.
In the modern context, Morocco’s rapid development has become a bone of contention to resource-rich, but economically stagnant, Algeria, where a military-led government has sought an extension of the conflict to placate a restive young population that is two generations removed from the veteran freedom fighters still in power. It is against this backdrop that the Israeli and US recognition has come about. Though there are of course Israelis of Sahrawi origin, this week’s announcement is less a declaration about the Abraham Accords than a ratification of the de facto reality on the ground.
Israel joins the likes of Bahrain, the UAE and Jordan as one of many countries that have formally recognized Moroccan sovereignty over the territory, echoing the 1975 opinion of the International Court of Justice that “ties of allegiance” between Sultans of Morocco and the tribes of the region “have existed since antiquity.”As Dakhla and Laayoune become international destinations and the phosphates of the region provide critical supplies of fertilizer amid the global commodities crisis caused by the war in Ukraine, effective governing of the region by Morocco has supplanted conflict with development.
Today, the estimated 20,000-60,000 Sahrawis languishing in camps on the Algerian border, who are nominally part of the Polisario movement, represent less than 10 percent of the wider population of the territory who are Moroccan citizens of Sahrawi origin. This long-awaited development was a requirement for Morocco’s agreeing to join the Abraham Accords.
Morocco’s agreement with Israel is itself also a formalization of day-to-day realities. Given that 20 percent of Israelis are of Moroccan origin, the normalization of relations was much needed, less as an expression of the realpolitik and more to meet the consular requirements of families who travel between the two countries and consider themselves dual citizens.
So established is the Moroccan Jewish community within Israel that Col. Sharon Itach, Israel’s first-ever military attache to Morocco, who arrived in Rabat this week, was born to Moroccan parents. So was Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana, who recently visited Rabat.
As much as the position taken by Israel on the Sahara is “clear-cut” — and comes amid broader momentum in Morocco’s favor after Washington and Madrid, and other European capitals, supported its autonomy plan — Morocco has nevertheless been prescriptive in its continued support for a two-state solution to the Palestinian issue. An effective broker between both sides of the conflict for decades, Morocco recently condemned Israeli military action in Jenin amid the wider international outrage.
In addition, the country’s chairmanship of the Al-Quds Committee, which is responsible for the protection of Al-Aqsa Mosque and the cultural heritage of Jerusalem, remains a key pillar of its foreign policy. With 87 percent of the intergovernmental organization’s funding coming from Moroccan taxpayers, the cause remains a politically sensitive rallying point in Morocco and is unlikely to be affected by the normalization agreement.
Broadly speaking, the Abraham Accords represent a diplomatic coup of sorts for Israel. With animosity against Iran on the wane, they provide another conduit for diplomatic outreach. Decades after the establishment of Israel, recognition from its Arab neighbors, who long refused to acknowledge its existence at all, has been a foreign policy priority. It is, therefore, unsurprising that the accords have been such an important focus for Tel Aviv.
In hindsight, however, they were signed without significant progress, or commitment, on the Israeli side to improving the situation of the Palestinian people. In pacing its engagement with Israel, Morocco avoided a similar fate by achieving a major diplomatic goal prior to offering Israel what it sought most.
This should be at the forefront of the considerations among Israeli decision-makers as they seek to ingratiate themselves with other Arab countries, which are unlikely to follow suit on normalization without any significant movement on the big issues in the region.
• Zaid M. Belbagi is a political commentator and an adviser to private clients between London and the GCC.
Twitter: @Moulay_Zaid

Russia’s Black Sea grain gambit is a clear win for Turkiye
Nikola Mikovic/Arab News/July 22, 2023
Russia’s recent decision to suspend its participation in the Black Sea Grain Initiative, a UN-backed agreement that has allowed Ukraine to export food during the ongoing conflict, will have repercussions that go beyond threatening global food security. It could also rewrite the region’s political map.
In the eyes of many Russian propagandists, the grain-deal reversal is payback for humiliation caused by Turkiye on July 7, when Ankara repatriated five captured Ukrainian commanders. The fighters had spent several months in a secure facility in Turkiye after surrendering to Russian troops in the Ukrainian port city of Mariupol last year. They were part of the Azov Regiment, which Russia considers a terrorist organization. From Moscow’s perspective, Ankara’s decision to send the men home was a slap in the face. If Russia had extended its participation in the grain deal, which uses Turkiye as a transit hub, Moscow would have looked even weaker, the thinking goes.
The withdrawal from the deal does not mean that the Kremlin is ready to reimpose another full-scale blockade of the Black Sea, as it did at the beginning of the war, or that it plans to jeopardize its relations with Ankara. However, there is no doubt that one of the major goals of Russia’s recent missile strikes on Ukrainian ports was to prevent, at least temporarily, the country from exporting grain.
Despite having differing views on the UN-supported export initiative, Moscow and Ankara remain “friends.” The Russian president is expected to visit Turkiye in August, and the grain initiative will be high on the agenda. Although Russia has shown its hand, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan insists that Russia is still interested in a continuation of the agreement.
What any new deal might look like remains unclear. Russian officials say that Turkiye will have to purchase Russian grain “at normal world prices.” Ankara, on the other hand, hopes to continue buying both Russian and Ukrainian grain at a discount. And yet, because Erdogan seems to have the upper hand, it is conceivable that Russia will have to accept Ankara’s conditions. Failure to do so could be costly for Moscow.
For one thing, Turkiye could effectively close the Bosporus and Dardanelles straits to Russian naval and civilian ships heading to Syria, complicating Moscow’s engagement in the Middle Eastern country.
Russian energy companies involved in multibillion-dollar projects in Turkiye could also be squeezed. Rosatom, which is building a nuclear power plant in the southern Turkish province of Mersin, and Gazprom, which seeks to turn Turkiye into a gas hub, would almost certainly apply pressure on the Kremlin to avoid angering its Turkish counterpart. Turkiye is in the driver’s seat. Ankara will not hesitate to push Moscow to reach a new grain deal that saves Ankara money and keeps the world fed. Barring that, Turkish authorities could follow the West and impose sanctions on Russian oligarchs who have found safe haven in their country.
Turkiye and Ukraine might even implement a grain deal without the participation of Russia, which would represent another humiliation for Moscow. In this scenario, Ukraine could simply continue exporting grain to Turkiye, ignoring Russia’s threats. Indeed, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently called on Erdogan and UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres to support grain shipments without Russian involvement.
Kyiv and Ankara understand that it is unlikely the Kremlin would dare sink Ukrainian or Turkish civilian ships, as such an action could lead to direct involvement by Turkiye in the war in Ukraine. Thus, Ukraine and Turkiye can simply continue doing grain business as usual.
However, if Moscow did decide to escalate the situation and started attacking ships entering or leaving Ukrainian ports, Kyiv would almost certainly respond. As a last resort, Turkiye could even start supplying Ukraine with weapons via the Black Sea route, which would represent another blow to Russia and its war effort.
To avoid any of these outcomes, the Kremlin might have no choice but to follow Ankara’s lead. The Russian propaganda machine could always spin Moscow’s policy as another “goodwill gesture” with the goal of helping poor countries in Africa. Erdogan might even insist that Moscow continue to send free grain to nations such as Mali, Djibouti, Sudan and Somalia — places where Turkiye has been trying to increase its influence.
The fact that Baykar, the Turkish combat drone production company, has begun building a plant in Ukraine clearly indicates that Erdogan feels confident and does not see Russia as a threat to its interests. He knows that if Turkiye is at the table, Russia’s room for political (and even military) maneuvering is limited.
For now, Turkiye is in the driver’s seat. Ankara will not hesitate to push Moscow to reach a new grain deal that saves Ankara money and keeps the world fed. Moscow’s latest move might appear strategic but in reality it is a desperate ploy by a leader quickly running out of options.
• Nikola Mikovic is a political analyst in Serbia. His work focuses mostly on the foreign policies of Russia, Belarus and Ukraine, with special attention on energy and pipeline politics.
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