Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on July 01-02/2023
Syria says its air defences confront Israeli missile strike on central parts of country
AMMAN (Reuters)/Sat, July 1, 2023
Syrian air defences on Sunday intercepted what it said was an Israeli missile strike across central parts of the country and downed most of the missiles, state media said. An army statement said missiles that flew over parts of Lebanon's capital Beirut hit locations in the vicinity of the city of Homs, resulting only in material damage. Reuters could not immediately confirm the report. Israeli military officials were not immediately available for comment, but an Israeli military spokesperson said earlier on Twitter that an anti-aircraft missile launched from inside Syrian territory towards Israel exploded in mid-air. Reuters could not immediately confirm the reports and it was not clear whether the two incidents were related. Israel has in recent months intensified strikes on Syrian airports and air bases to disrupt Iran's increasing use of aerial supply lines to deliver arms to allies in Syria and Lebanon, including Lebanon's Hezbollah The Israeli strikes are part of an escalation of what has been a low-intensity conflict that has been going on for years with a goal of slowing Iran's growing entrenchment in Syria, Israeli military experts say. Tehran's influence has grown in Syria since it began supporting President Bashar al-Assad in the civil war that started in 2011. Fighters allied to Iran, including Hezbollah, now hold sway in areas in eastern, southern, and northwestern Syria and in several suburbs around the capital.

French police arrest more than 1,300 people in fourth night of riots
The Associated Press/01 July ,2023
French police arrested 1,311 people nationwide during a fourth consecutive night of rioting over the killing of a teenager by police, the interior ministry said Saturday.
The country had deployed 45,000 officers overnight, backed by light armored vehicles and crack police units to quell the violence over the death of 17-year-old Nahel, killed during a traffic stop in a Paris suburb on Tuesday.
Rioting raged in cities around France for a fourth night despite massive police deployment, with cars and buildings set ablaze and stores looted, as family and friends prepared Saturday to bury the 17-year-old whose killing by police unleashed the unrest. The government suggested the violence was beginning to lessen thanks to tougher security measures, but damages remained widespread, from Paris to Marseille and Lyon and French territories overseas, where a 54-year-old died after being hit by a stray bullet in French Guiana.
France’s national football team — including international star Kylian Mbappe, an idol to many young people in the disadvantaged neighborhoods where the anger is rooted — pleaded for an end to the violence.
“Many of us are from working-class neighborhoods, we too share this feeling of pain and sadness” over the killing of 17-year-old Nahel, the players said in a statement. “Violence resolves nothing. … There are other peaceful and constructive ways to express yourself.” They said it’s time for “mourning, dialogue and reconstruction” instead. The fatal shooting of Nahel, whose last name has not been made public, stirred up long-simmering tensions between police and young people in housing projects who struggle with poverty, unemployment, and racial discrimination. The subsequent rioting is the worst France has seen in years and puts new pressure on President Emmanuel Macron, who appealed to parents to keep children off the streets and blamed social media for fueling violence. Family and friends were holding a funeral gathering Saturday for Nahel in his hometown of Nanterre. Anger erupted in the Paris suburb after his death there Tuesday and quickly spread nationwide.
Early Saturday, firefighters in Nanterre extinguished blazes set by protesters that left scorched remains of cars strewn across the streets. In the neighboring suburb Colombes, protesters overturned garbage bins and used them for makeshift barricades. Looters during the evening broke into a gun shop and made off with weapons in the Mediterranean port city of Marseille, police said. Officers in Marseille arrested nearly 90 people as groups of protesters lit cars on fire and broke store windows to take what was inside. Buildings and businesses were also vandalized in the eastern city of Lyon, where a third of the roughly 30 arrests made were for theft, police said. Authorities reported fires in the streets after an unauthorized protest drew more than 1,000 people earlier Friday evening. Hundreds of police and firefighters have been injured, including 79 overnight, but authorities have not released injury tallies for protesters. Nanterre Mayor Patrick Jarry said France needs to “push for changes” in disadvantaged neighborhoods.
Despite repeated government appeals for calm and stiffer policing, Friday saw brazen daylight violence, too. An Apple store was looted in the eastern city of Strasbourg, where police fired tear gas, and the windows of a fast-food outlet were smashed in a Paris-area shopping mall, where officers repelled people trying to break into a shuttered store, authorities said. In the face of the escalating crisis that hundreds of arrests and massive police deployments have failed to quell, Macron held off on declaring a state of emergency, an option that was used in similar circumstances in 2005. Instead, his government ratcheted up its law enforcement response with 45,000 police deployed overnight. Some were called back from vacation. Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin, ordered a nationwide nighttime shutdown Friday of all public buses and trams, which have been among rioters’ targets. He also said he warned social networks not to allow themselves to be used as channels for calls to violence. “They were very cooperative,” Darmanin said, adding that French authorities were providing the platforms with information in hopes of cooperation identifying people inciting violence. “We will pursue every person who uses these social networks to commit violent acts,” he said. Macron, too, zeroed in on social media platforms that have relayed dramatic images of vandalism and cars and buildings being torched. Singling out Snapchat and TikTok, he said they were being used to organize unrest and served as conduits for copycat violence. The violence comes just over a year before Paris and other French cities are due to host 10,500 Olympians and millions of visitors for the summer Olympic Games. Organizers said they are closely monitoring the situation as preparations for the Olympics continue. The police officer accused of killing Nahel was handed a preliminary charge of voluntary homicide. Preliminary charges mean investigating magistrates strongly suspect wrongdoing but need to investigate more before sending a case to trial. Nanterre prosecutor Pascal Prache said his initial investigation led him to conclude that the officer’s use of his weapon wasn’t legally justified.
Nahel’s mother, identified as Mounia M., told France 5 television that she was angry at the officer but not at the police in general. “He saw a little Arab-looking kid, he wanted to take his life,” she said. “A police officer cannot take his gun and fire at our children, take our children’s lives,” she said. The family has roots in Algeria.Race was a taboo topic for decades in France, which is officially committed to a doctrine of colorblind universalism. In the wake of Nahel’s killing, French anti-racism activists renewed complaints about police behavior. Thirteen people who didn’t comply with traffic stops were fatally shot by French police last year. This year, another three people, including Nahel, died under similar circumstances. The deaths have prompted demands for more accountability in France, which also saw racial justice protests after George Floyd’s killing by police in Minnesota. This week’s protests echoed the three weeks of rioting in 2005 that followed the deaths of 15-year-old Bouna Traoré and 17-year-old Zyed Benna, who were electrocuted while hiding from police in a power substation in Clichy-sous-Bois.

France riots: President Macron postpones state visit to Germany
Reuters, Berlin/01 July ,2023
French President Emmanuel Macron has postponed a state visit to Germany that was to begin on Sunday due to unrest in France, both countries announced on Saturday. The announcement comes as more than 1,300 people were arrested in France during a fourth night of rioting. Family and friends of Nahel M, whose shooting by police sparked the unrest, gathered on Saturday for the teenager’s funeral in the Paris suburb where he died. Macron spoke on the phone on Saturday with German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier and briefed him on the situation, a spokesperson for the German president said.
“President Macron has asked that the planned state visit to Germany will be postponed,” the spokesperson said.

Israel is not nearing attack on Iran’s nuclear sites: Official
Reuters, Jerusalem/01 July ,2023
Israel is not nearing an attack on Iran’s nuclear sites, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s national security adviser said on Friday, as talks between Tehran and Washington have sought to cool tensions. Tzachi Hanegbi said it was still unclear what will come of talks Israel’s main ally the United States has held with Iran in recent weeks in an effort to outline steps that could limit Tehran’s nuclear program and de-escalate tensions. Nonetheless, no agreement would obligate Israel, which views a nuclear-armed Iran as an existential threat, Hanegbi told Channel 13 television. Asked whether an Israeli decision on a preemptive strike against Iran was any closer, Hanegbi said: “We are not getting closer because the Iranians have stopped, for a while now, they are not enriching uranium to the level that in our view is the red line.”Hanegbi added: “But it can happen. So we are preparing for the moment, if it comes, in which we will have to defend the people of Israel against a fanatic regime that is set on annihilating us and is armed with weapons of mass destruction.”Netanyahu has set a “red line” on Iran’s uranium enrichment at bomb-grade 90 percent fissile purity. Iran has ramped up enrichment to 60 percent purity in recent years. Having failed to revive a 2015 nuclear deal that had capped Tehran’s enrichment at 3.67 percent, Iranian and Western officials have met to sketch out steps that could curb its fast advancing nuclear work. The 2015 agreement limited Iran’s uranium enrichment to make it harder for Tehran to develop the means to produce nuclear arms. Iran denies it has such ambitions. Then-US President Donald Trump ditched the pact in 2018 and reimposed sanctions that have crippled the Iranian economy. Tehran responded by gradually moving well beyond the deal’s enrichment restrictions.

UK, Australia and Canada express ‘deep concern’ over Israel’s approval of new settlement units in West Bank
Reuters/July 1, 2023
LONDON: Britain, Australia and Canada have called on Israel’s government to reverse a decision to approve new settlement units in the West Bank, saying they are “deeply concerned” by an ongoing cycle of violence. This week, Israel approved over 5,700 new settlement units in the West Bank and earlier this month instituted changes to the settlement approval process which facilitate swifter approval of construction. “The continued expansion of settlements is an obstacle to peace and negatively impacts efforts to achieve a negotiated two-state solution. We call on the Government of Israel to reverse these decisions,” the foreign ministers of Britain, Australia and Canada said in a joint statement. Violence has been surging in the West Bank, including deadly clashes in Jenin, a fatal shooting by Palestinians near a Jewish settlement, attacks on Palestinian villages by rampaging settlers, and rare use of Israeli air power against militants.

Iran’s Nour News dismisses Israel report of capturing Iranian agent
AP/July 1, 2023
JERUSALEM: Iran’s state-run Nour News said on Friday Israel’s report that it had foiled an attack in Cyprus by capturing an Iranian agent was an effort to cover up its own domestic crisis. Israel said on Thursday its Mossad intelligence service carried out an operation in Iran to capture the suspected leader of an Iranian plot to attack Israeli businesspeople in Cyprus. “The Zionist regime, which is (facing a) deterioration of its domestic situation, has narrated a failed operation from a year ago in Iran where all its agents were arrested in an upside-down manner,” said Nour News which is close to Iran’s top national security body.Mossad announced on Thursday that its agents inside Iran seized the head of an alleged Iranian hit squad that planned to kill Israeli businesspeople in Cyprus.
HIGHLIGHT
Israel considers Iran its greatest enemy, citing Tehran’s calls for Israel’s destruction and support for hostile groups. It also accuses Iran of trying to develop a nuclear bomb — a claim that Iran denies. The Mossad, which rarely speaks to the media, said the man had given investigators a detailed “confession.” It said the information was relayed to authorities in Cyprus, where security services dismantled the cell. “We will reach whoever foments terrorism against Jews and Israelis around the world, including on Iranian soil,” said the Mossad statement, quoting an unnamed senior agency official. Israel routinely strikes Iranian targets in neighboring Syria and is believed to be behind a string of attacks on Iranian nuclear experts and facilities inside Iran over the years. Five years ago, Israel unveiled a vast collection of documents about Iran’s nuclear program that it said the Mossad had stolen from a warehouse in Iran. On Thursday, Israel released footage of a man it identified as the head of the Iranian cell, Yusef Shahabazi Abbasalilu, saying on camera that he received his orders from Iran’s powerful paramilitary Revolutionary Guard Corps. He further said he scoped out the target and took photos of the target’s home in Cyprus but fled the Mediterranean island nation and returned to Iran after being alerted that police were looking for him. It was not clear if the man spoke under duress. “In the wake of the information that he gave to investigators, the cell was dismantled in an operation by the Cypriot security services,” the Mossad statement said. Cypriot authorities would not comment when repeatedly queried by The Associated Press, saying only that “they don’t discuss matters of national security.” Israel has long claimed that Iran is plotting to attack Israeli targets around the world and urged citizens to be careful when traveling abroad. An Azeri man is on trial in Cyprus, a close Israeli ally, on suspicion that he planned to carry out the contract killings of Israelis living in Cyprus.

Biden's Iran envoy on unpaid leave pending review of classified documents handling
Associated Press/July 1, 2023
The Biden administration's special envoy for Iran has been placed on unpaid leave and had his security clearance suspended pending a review of allegations he may have mishandled classified information, U.S. officials said Thursday. Rob Malley has led administration efforts to revive the faltering Iran nuclear deal and resolve issues related to detained Americans in Iran, but has not been active in his main job for weeks. He told colleagues he was taking extended personal leave for unspecified family reasons. Two State Department officials said the agency's Bureau of Diplomatic Security was leading the inquiry, which revolves around Malley's handling of classified documents. The officials said they learned of Malley's change in status from paid to unpaid leave on Thursday, shortly after questions about his status were raised at the State Department's regular afternoon briefing. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity due to privacy reasons. Malley did not immediately respond to a query about the situation from The Associated Press but said in a short statement to several other news outlets that he had "been informed that my security clearance is under review." "I have not been provided any further information, but I expect the investigation to be resolved favorably and soon. In the meantime, I am on leave," he said in that statement. State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said earlier Thursday that Malley officially remains in his post but is on leave and that his deputy, Abram Paley, is currently leading the Iran portfolio as the acting special envoy. Malley's whereabouts have raised questions since he skipped a classified congressional briefing on Iran on May 16. At the time, State Department officials told lawmakers that Malley was on "extended personal leave" and suggested that his absence might be related to a family health issue. Malley, a close personal friend of Secretary of State Antony Blinken, had worked for the International Crisis Group during the Trump administration. In that job he met on several occasions with Iranians and Palestinian officials with whom U.S. officials are barred from having contact. During the Obama administration, Malley served as a National Security Council aide and was closely involved in the negotiations over the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran.

Ukraine’s Zelenskyy warns ‘serious threat’ remains at Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant
Reuters, Kyiv/01 July ,2023
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned on Saturday that a “serious threat” remained at the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and said that Russia was “technically ready” to provoke a localized explosion at the facility. Zelenskyy cited Ukrainian intelligence as the source of his information. “There is a serious threat because Russia is technically ready to provoke a local explosion at the station, which could lead to a (radiation) release,” Zelenskyy told a joint news conference in Kyiv with visiting Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez. He gave no further details. Ukrainian military intelligence has previously said Russian troops had mined the plant. Zelenskyy called for greater international attention to the situation at the facility in southeastern Ukraine, which is Europe’s largest nuclear plant. He also urged sanctions on Russia’s state nuclear company Rosatom. Sanchez said that by visiting the Ukrainian capital as Spain kicks off the six-month rotating EU presidency, he wanted to underscore his support for Ukraine. Spain would provide an additional 55 million euro ($60 million) financial package for Ukraine to help the economy and small businesses, he said.
The Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, located near the city of Enerhodar in southern Ukraine, has been occupied by Russia since early March last year, shortly after Moscow’s invasion. Russia has previously denied Kyiv’s accusations that Russia was preparing an explosion at the plant. Kyiv and Moscow have accused each other of shelling the vast facility. Ukraine, then part of the Soviet Union, suffered the world’s worst nuclear accident in 1986, when clouds of radioactive material spread across much of Europe after an explosion and fire at the Chornobyl nuclear power plant.

Zelensky imposes sanctions on more than 190 personalities from Russia and other countries
NNA/01 July ,2023
Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky signed a decree imposing sanctions on 193 people, most of whom hold Russian citizenship, as well as against 291 companies from Russia and other countries, according to the Russian "Novosti" news agency. A statement posted on the website of Zelensky's office said: "Implementation of the decision of the Security and Defense Council of Ukraine dated July 1, 2023 on the imposition of personal economic sanctions." The sanctions are imposed for a period of ten years and include freezing of assets, restriction of business operations (total suspension), prohibition of withdrawal of capital from Ukraine, prohibition of transfer of technology, rights over intellectual property, suspension of fulfillment of economic and financial obligations, and prohibition of transfer of technology of intellectual property rights. It is noteworthy that Zelensky's sanctions included the Georgian airline and its general manager, Tamaz Gayashvili.

Ukraine says no negotiations unless Russia retreats from Crimea
James Kilner/The Telegraph/July 01/2023
Volodymyr Zelensky: ‘The borders of February 24 2022 are not our borders. That was the contact line between us and the occupiers’ Volodymyr Zelensky: ‘The borders of February 24 2022 are not our borders. That was the contact line between us and the occupiers’ - Shutterstock/Sergey Dolzhenko Ukraine will only negotiate a peace deal with Russia once the Kremlin’s armies have fully retreated from Donbas and Crimea, Volodymyr Zelensky has said. His comments scotched suggestions that Ukraine may look for peace talks if its counteroffensive pushes Russian forces back to the border of occupied Crimea.“The borders of February 24 2022 are not our borders. That was the contact line between us and the occupiers,” Mr Zelensky said in comments made as Pedro Sanchez, Spain’s prime minister, visited Kyiv. Russia illegally annexed Crimea in 2014 during its initial limited invasion of Ukraine. Earlier on Saturday, the Washington Post reported that Ukrainian officials had told CIA chief William Burns during a secret trip to Kyiv last week that they were “bullish” about reaching the border with Crimea and that they then planned to scare the Kremlin into peace talks by threatening to shell the occupied peninsula.
Always aimed to recapture
But Mr Zelensky has always insisted that he aims to recapture Crimea, as well as Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzia and Kherson, which the Kremlin has also tried to annex. “Ukraine will be ready for one or another format of diplomacy when we are really on our borders. On our real borders in accordance with international law,” he said. Ukraine launched its counterattack last month but some Western officials have said it has progressed too slowly. Ukraine has recaptured around a dozen villages in its counteroffensive, mainly on the eastern edge of Zaporizhzhia region and in neighbouring Donetsk. Mr Burns, the CIA chief, made his secret trip to Kyiv to reassure Ukrainian officials that the US government believed that criticism of the counteroffensive was misplaced and that they still had the full support of President Joe Biden. The British Ministry of Defence has also confirmed that Ukrainian forces have established a bridgehead on the left bank of the Dnipro River. “Combat around the bridgehead is almost certainly complicated by the flooding, destruction and residual mud from the collapse of the Kakhovka Dam,” it said in a reference to the collapse of an upstream dam.
Its assessment follows reports from Russian military bloggers that the Russian army has lost control of territory south of the ruined Antonovsky bridge, which crosses the Dnipro River from the city of Kherson. Western tanks have been in action for the first time in the war in Ukraine during the Ukrainian counteroffensive but in an interview with the Washington Post, Gen Valery Zaluzhny, Ukraine’s top military commander, said that he wanted more weapons from the West, including F-16 fighter jets. “Without being fully supplied, these plans are not feasible at all,” he said of the counteroffensive. “Every day, every metre is given in blood.” A US official said that Mr Burns had been in Kyiv to meet senior Ukrainian officials shortly before Yevgeny Prigozhin and his Wagner mercenaries had launched their failed rebellion against the Russian Ministry of Defence. Washington and Kyiv have denied any links to Prigozhin and the US official said that Mr Burns had phoned his Russian counterpart Sergei Naryshkin to reinforce this point. As part of the peace deal that ended his rebellion, Prigozhin agreed to move into exile in Belarus. His personal plane has been spotted flying into and then out of Belarus, including on Saturday, sparking speculation that he and his family may have already arrived in Minsk.

Moscow hit with drones as Ukraine war comes to RussiaScroll back up to restore default view.
Business Insider/July 01/2023
Ukraine is now several weeks into its long-awaited counteroffensive.
But Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Kyiv's top general, doesn't want to hear complaints that it's moving too slow. "This is not a show," he told the Washington Post. "Every day, every meter is given by blood."Ukraine has fended off Russia's advances for more than 16 months, and it's now several weeks into its long-awaited counteroffensive. The pace is grinding in some sectors of the front, but Kyiv's top general says he doesn't want to hear complaints it's going too slow. Gen. Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the commander-in-chief of Ukraine's Armed Forces, told the Washington Post that it "pisses" him off to hear commentary that his counteroffensive operations are moving slower than anticipated. Kyiv's military is currently undergoing several offensive maneuvers along the front lines in the eastern and southern regions and has made small — but, at times, costly — territorial gains in the process.
Liberating Russian-occupied land means clearing obstacles fortifications, including anti-tank ditches, "dragon's teeth" anti-vehicle barricades, minefields, and trench labyrinths and breaking through Moscow's layered defensive lines. Breaching these many obstacles are dangerous and painstaking operations, especially since Ukraine doesn't appear to have all the capabilities that other militaries executing this kind of mission would normally employ.
"This is not a show," Zaluzhnyi said in the recent interview with the Post, which was published on Friday. "It's not a show the whole world is watching and betting on or anything. Every day, every meter is given by blood."
To be successful with the assault and conduct the kind of operations some expect from Kyiv's forces, specifically a fast, hard-hitting offensive, Ukraine's "Iron General" says he needs more advanced weaponry from Kyiv's Western military partners. "Without being fully supplied, these plans are not feasible at all," Zaluzhnyi noted. "But they are being carried out. Yes, maybe not as fast as the participants in the show, the observers, would like, but that is their problem."
He argued that NATO doctrine calls for neutralizing enemy air power and securing air superiority before conducting a ground-offensive, but Ukraine doesn't have the weapons to compete with Russia in the air.
"The enemy is using a different generation of aviation," Zaluzhnyi told the Post. "It's like we'd go on the offensive with bows and arrows now, and everyone would say, 'Are you crazy?'"The general also pointed out that in the artillery fight, Ukrainian forces are being outshot ten times over. Before Ukraine's counteroffensive began earlier this summer, Kyiv spent months building up a inventory of valuable heavy weaponry from the US and other NATO partners, weapons like advanced tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, and armored personnel carriers that complemented a steady procurement of missiles, ammunition, artillery, air-defense systems, mine-clearing equipment, and more.
Earlier this week, the Pentagon announced a new $500 million security assistance package for Ukraine, pushing the total dollar amount for all military aid provided by the US to the eastern European country to a whopping figure of more than $40.5 billion since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022. Ukrainian officials have indicated that the military still needs to boost its long-range strike capabilities so it can hit Russian positions in occupied territory that are deep behind the front lines. One such weapon Ukraine wants is the Army Tactical Missile System, or ATACMS, which have a range of nearly 200 miles and can be fired from Ukraine's existing inventory of US-provided High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS).
The Biden administration has long been reluctant to sign off on ATACMS for Ukraine, despite growing pressure from lawmakers and others, but The Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday that there now appears to be movement toward providing these weapons. When asked during a Thursday briefing about ATACMS, Pentagon Press Secretary Air Force Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder told reporters that he has nothing to announce and isn't "aware of any imminent decisions as it relates" to the weapon. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley said at an event Friday that "these things are on the table," but noted there's been no decision. ATACMS would extend Ukraine's long-range strike capabilities beyond the reach of its UK-provided Storm Shadow cruise missiles, which have lately been celebrated by officials for their "significant" battlefield impact and success. Another missing component of the Ukrainian counteroffensive is airpower. A much-sought item long on Ukraine's weaponry wishlist is American F-16 fighter jets. The Biden administration has already approved the export of F-16s by allies to Ukraine, but the details and timeline surrounding training and delivery remain relatively cloaked in mystery. It may still be some time before Ukraine can get its hands on these assets. Armed with the right missiles, these aircraft could help support Ukraine's air defenses and inflict damage on Russian positions at range. US officials have said that the training program is being led by Denmark and the Netherlands and should begin somewhere in Europe before the end of the year. Meanwhile, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said at a Thursday press conference that he expects new announcements from allies on security assistance to Ukraine at the military alliance's upcoming summit in Lithuania. "We'll also agree a multi-year program to help Ukraine," as well as support moves toward NATO and facilitate increased interoperability with NATO, Stoltenberg said. "So we just need to continue to support Ukraine and ensure that Ukraine prevails as a sovereign independent nation in Europe."

Key details still shrouded in mystery one week after Russia rebellion
Associated Press/July 01, 2023
Did mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin have inside help from the military and political elite in his armed rebellion that rattled Russia? A week after the mutiny raised the most daunting challenge to President Vladimir Putin's rule in over two decades, key details about the uprising are still unknown. Uncertainty also swirls around the fate of Prigozhin and his Wagner private military forces, along with the deal they got from the Kremlin, and what the future holds for the Russian defense minister they tried to oust. Finally, and perhaps the biggest unknown: Can Putin shore up the weaknesses revealed by the events of last weekend?
DID PRIGOZHIN HAVE INSIDE HELP?
Many observers argue that Prigozhin wouldn't have been able to take over military facilities in the southern city of Rostov-on-Don so easily on June 24 and mount his rapid march toward Moscow without collusion with some members of the military brass.
Thousands of members of his private army drove nearly 1,000 kilometers (about 620 miles) across Russia without facing any serious resistance and shot down at least seven military aircraft, killing at least 10 airmen. Prigozhin said they got as close as 200 kilometers (about 125 miles) from Moscow when he ordered them to turn back under a deal brokered by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. That agreement granted amnesty to him and forces from his Wagner Group of private contractors, allowing them to move to Belarus. Some Kremlin watchers believe senior military officers could have backed his push for the ouster of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and the chief of the General Staff, Gen. Valery Gerasimov. Or they simply decided to wait and see what happened. "The Wagner mercenary boss was counting on solidarity from senior army officers, and since he came close to reaching Moscow without encountering any particular resistance, he might not have been completely mistaken," analyst Mikhail Komin wrote in a commentary for Carnegie Endowment. "It's entirely possible that by the start of his 'march for justice,' Prigozhin believed he would find solidarity among many officers in the armed forces, and that if his uprising was successful, they would be joined by certain groups within the ruling elite." Russian law enforcement agencies might share this belief. Some military bloggers reported that investigators were looking at whether some officers had sided with Prigozhin. One senior military official, Gen. Sergei Surovikin, who had longtime ties with Prigozhin, is believed to have been detained, two people familiar with the matter told The Associated Press, citing U.S. and Ukrainian intelligence assessments. It's not clear whether Surovikin faces any charges or where he is being held. Russian military bloggers reported that some border guards were accused of failing to put up resistance to Wagner's convoy as it crossed into Russia from Ukraine, and some pilots also are facing possible charges for refusing to halt the convoy movement toward Moscow.
There was no official confirmation of those claims, however, and it was impossible to verify them. In noting the lack of a more forceful military response to the mutiny, some have cited the chaotic and uncertain situation and the Kremlin's doubts about using force in populated areas. Mark Galeotti, a London-based expert on Russian security affairs, said the government system is "hierarchical and slow," and doesn't encourage initiative.
"In that context, people would just not be willing to act without direct orders, either because they just feared being hanged out to dry if they guessed wrong or else because actually, they had a certain sympathy for Prigozhin," he added. Pro-Kremlin analyst Sergei Markov said some in the Russian military might have been reluctant to confront Prigozhin initially but their attitude hardened after Wagner forces downed several military helicopters.
A MURKY DEAL AND A MURKY FUTURE
Another mystery is the deal ending the mutiny. Russia's main intelligence agency opened an investigation against Prigozhin for the rebellion, but the case was later dropped as part of that agreement. Putin, Prigozhin and Lukashenko all described it as a compromise intended to avoid bloodshed, but few details have been released. Also uncertain is the future of Prigozhin and Wagner. Putin said the mercenaries who didn't participate in the mutiny can sign contracts with the Defense Ministry, retire or move to Belarus, but it's unknown how many will join him and whether they will continue to be a single force. Prigozhin may not feel fully safe under Lukashenko, who is known for his harsh rule and relies on Putin's political and financial support. The mercenary chief's exact whereabouts are unknown. Lukashenko confirmed he is in Belarus; Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov wouldn't say where he is. Lukashenko can be expected to maintain tight control over Prigozhin's troops. "I suspect the way Moscow hopes this will play out is the commanders will move to Belarus and then possibly decamp for operations in Africa," said Michael Kofman, an expert with the Center for Naval Analyses. "Meanwhile, they will try to get back Wagner's heavy equipment, and then figure out how to use the rank and file that chooses to stay," Others believe the Kremlin won't allow Prigozhin to operate independently abroad as he did before. Reports from Syria this week indicated that Wagner troops were told to report to the main Russian military base in the country.
Even though Russia closed its criminal inquiry into the mutiny, Putin signaled the authorities will look into Wagner's books for any wrongdoing. That could set the stage for potential charges of financial crime. In a stunning revelation, Putin declared that the government poured billions of dollars into Wagner, a statement that followed his previous denials of any link between the state and the mercenary group. "It turns out that Vladimir Putin actually paid for the mutiny with taxpayers' money," analyst Andrei Kolesnikov wrote.
WILL THE DEFENSE MINISTER SURVIVE?
While Prigozhin's stated goal was the ouster of the top military leaders, including the defense minister, some see that Shoigu could emerge strengthened. "Intriguingly, the main beneficiary seems to be Shoigu: With Prigozhin and Wagner out of the picture, Putin is now immunized against a similar mutiny and any sort of experiences with private military companies," said analyst Tatiana Stanovaya. Shoigu could use the showdown to get rid of any sign of dissent among the brass, she said. But Komin, of the Carnegie Endowment, said Prigozhin's mutiny "revealed the scale of the crisis within the Russian armed forces, which are disillusioned by constant failures and tired of war, and within the military and security elites."It could set the stage for more such tests of authority. "When senior and mid-ranking officers effectively respond to an armed mutiny with a 'go slow' strike, there can be little doubt that the Wagner boss will not be the last challenger to square off against Shoigu and his allies and seek to capitalize on the unspoken but growing resentment within the Russian armed forces," Komin added. There also is a debate about the future of military contractors in Russia. Vladislav Surkov, a former senior aide to Putin, strongly argued that they pose a major threat to Russia's integrity, saying private armies like Wagner could turn Russia into a "Eurasian tribal zone."
WILL PUTIN BE ABLE TO RECOVER FROM THIS?
Even though the quick deal with Prigozhin averted a battle for Moscow that could have plunged the whole country into chaos, the crisis revealed shocking weaknesses in Putin's government. After a stumbling response to the mutiny, Putin tried to repair the damage to his standing with a series of events aimed at projecting strength and authority. State television hammered home the message that a quick end to the rebellion made Putin even stronger. He spoke to army troops and law enforcement officers in a Kremlin ceremony that mimicked the pomp-laden military rites of the Russian empire. He traveled to the city of Derbent in the mostly Muslim region of Dagestan, on the Islamic holiday of Eid al-Adha on Wednesday. He walked among cheering crowds, talking to people and shaking hands, and even posed for a photo — extremely rare behavior for a secretive and reserved leader who was notoriously cautious about social contacts during the coronavirus pandemic. In an apparent bid to turn the page on the rebellion, Putin focused on issues such as the development of tourist industries in Derbent or technological innovations.
But despite such attempts and damage-control efforts by the state propaganda machine, Putin's weakness and vulnerability has become obvious. "This mutiny was so shocking that the regime appeared to many as near to collapse, which significantly undermines Putin's ability to secure control in the eyes of the political class," Stanovaya said. But Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Friday rejected claims that the abortive mutiny exposed any weakness, saying that "Russia always has come out stronger from any troubles … and it will so this time as well."

CIA's Burns: armed mutiny shows damage Putin has done to Russia
(Reuters)/July 01, 2023
U.S. CIA Director William Burns said on Saturday that the armed mutiny by mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin was a challenge to the Russian state that had shown the corrosive effect of President Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine. Putin this week thanked the army and security forces for averting what he said could have turned into a civil war, and has compared the mutiny to the chaos that plunged Russia into two revolutions in 1917. For months, Prigozhin had been openly insulting Putin's most senior military men, using a variety of crude expletives and prison slang that shocked top Russian officials but were left unanswered in public by Putin. "It is striking that Prigozhin preceded his actions with a scathing indictment of the Kremlin's mendacious rationale for the invasion of Ukraine and of the Russian military leadership's conduct of the war," Burns said in a lecture to Britain's Ditchley Foundation - a non-profit foundation focused on U.S.-British relations - in Oxfordshire, England. "The impact of those words and those actions will play out for some time - a vivid reminder of the corrosive effect of Putin's war on his own society and his own regime."Burns, who served as U.S. ambassador to Russia from 2005 to 2008 and was appointed CIA director in 2021, cast Prigozhin's mutiny as an "armed challenge to the Russian state". He said the mutiny was an "internal Russian affair in which the United States has had and will have no part."Since a deal was struck a week ago to end the mutiny, the Kremlin has sought to project calm, with the 70-year-old Putin discussing tourism development, meeting crowds in Dagestan, and discussing ideas for economic development. Russia will emerge stronger after the failed mutiny so the West need not worry about stability in the world's biggest nuclear power, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Friday. But Burns said that the war had already been a strategic failure for Russia by laying bare its military weakness and damaging the Russian economy for years to come, while the NATO military alliance was growing bigger and stronger. Burns said Russia's "future as a junior partner and economic colony of China" was being shaped "by Putin's mistakes." He said disaffection in Russia with the war in Ukraine was creating a rare opportunity to recruit spies - and the CIA was not letting it pass. "Disaffection with the war will continue to gnaw away at the Russian leadership beneath the steady diet of state propaganda and practiced repression," Burns said. "That disaffection creates a once-in-a-generation opportunity for us at the CIA - at our core a human intelligence service. We're not letting it go to waste." The Kremlin said in May that its agencies were tracking Western spy activity after the CIA published a video encouraging Russians to make contact via a secure internet channel. The short video in Russian was accompanied by a text saying the agency wanted to hear from military officers, intelligence specialists, diplomats, scientists and people with information about Russia's economy and its leadership.

The US flies nuclear-capable bombers in a fresh show of force against North Korea
SEOUL, South Korea (AP)
The United States flew nuclear-capable bombers to the Korean Peninsula on Friday in its latest show of force against North Korea, days after the North staged massive anti-U.S. rallies in its capital. The long-range B-52 bombers took part in joint aerial drills with other U.S. and South Korean fighter jets over the peninsula, South Korea’s Defense Ministry said in a statement. The bombers’ flyover is the latest in a series of temporary U.S. deployments of strategic assets in South Korea in response to North Korea’s push to expand its nuclear arsenal. Two weeks ago, the U.S. deployed a nuclear-powered submarine capable of carrying about 150 Tomahawk missiles to South Korean waters for the first time in six years. The USS Michigan’s arrival came a day after North Korea resumed missile tests to protest previous U.S.-South Korean drills that it views as an invasion rehearsal. The South Korean Defense Ministry said the B-52 bombers' deployment boosted the visibility of U.S. strategic assets to the peninsula. It said the allies have been demonstrating their firm resolve to strengthen combined defense postures and will continue joint drills involving U.S. strategic bombers. On Sunday, more than 120,000 North Koreans participated in mass rallies in Pyongyang to mark the 73rd anniversary of the start of the Korean War. During the rallies, officials and residents delivered speeches vowing “merciless revenge” against the United States over the war while accusing the U.S. of plotting an invasion on North Korea. The Korean War ended with an armistice, not a peace treaty, leaving the peninsula in a technical state of war. The U.S. stations about 28,000 troops in South Korea as deterrence against potential aggression by North Korea.
Since its June 15 launches of two short-range ballistic missiles, North Korea hasn’t performed any further public weapons tests. But the U.S. bombers’ deployment could prompt it to launch weapons again in protest. Enhancing “regular visibility of U.S. strategic assets" to the Korean Peninsula was part of agreements reached between U.S. President Joe Biden and South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol during their summit in Washington in April. Biden stated at the time that any North Korean nuclear attack on the U.S. or its allies would “result in the end of whatever regime” took such action. Since the start of 2022, North Korea has carried out more than 100 missile tests in a bid to enlarge its arsenal of nuclear-capable missiles targeting the U.S. mainland and South Korea. The allies have responded by expanding their military exercises.In late May, a North Korean launch of a rocket carrying its first spy satellite ended in failure, with the rocket plunging into waters soon after liftoff. North Korea has since repeatedly said it would attempt a second launch, saying it’s crucial to build space-based surveillance system to cope with what it calls U.S. hostility.

Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on July 01-02/2023
The Biden Administration's Dangerous Nuclear Deal: Congressional Approval Required
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Gatestone Institute./July 01/2023
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/119661/119661/
"I urge the Administration to remember that U.S. law requires that any agreement, arrangement, or understanding with Iran needs to be submitted to Congress." — Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas), Chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, in a letter to US President Joe Biden, June 15, 2023.
"INARA [the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act of 2015] was enacted with strong bipartisan support to ensure Congressional oversight of U.S. policy regarding Iran's nuclear program.... This definition makes clear that any arrangement or understanding with Iran, even informal, requires submission to Congress." — Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas), Chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, in a letter to US President Joe Biden, June 15, 2023 [Emphasis added].
[T]he return to the nuclear deal means that the current sanctions against Tehran will be lifted and the regime would reportedly receive $100 billion a year "to Destabilise [the] Region," as well as legitimately to rejoin the global financial system. Through the nuclear deal, the Iranian regime will again buy itself a blank check to advance its aggressive and fundamentalist policies across the Middle East, just as it did after the 2015 nuclear deal, but this time with the potential of threatening other countries with its nuclear breakout capability.
"To give them another windfall of cash like we did as a result of the 2015 nuclear deal, which led to an expansion of their proxy wars in the Middle East, it doesn't make any sense. It's not in our national interest.... They're gonna fuel their proxy wars and they're seeking domination and control in the Middle East.... No, it's not a good deal. It wasn't a good deal in 2015. It's not a good deal now." — Retired U.S. Army General Jack Keane, The Hill, June 18, 2023.
A nuclear deal will allow the flow of billions of dollars into the Iranian regime's treasury, thereby providing the funding for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) that they need to escalate their military adventurism in the region. (Image source: iStock)
The Biden Administration, in an attempt to revive the Iran nuclear deal, has been quietly negotiating with the theocratic regime of President Ebrahim Raisi, known -- for his crimes against humanity and his involvement in a massacre of nearly 30,000 political prisoners -- as "the Butcher of Tehran."
The editorial board of the Wall Street Journal wrote on June 16:
"Here we go again. The same people who gave us the Iran nuclear deal in 2015 are trying to pull off a new version that would send Iran cash on day one in return for promises down the road."
The Biden Administration is planning to release $17 billion in frozen assets to Iran, in exchange for the release three Iranian-Americans prisoners, thereby incentivizing the hostage-taking shakedown racket, and for some easily breakable promises down the road on Iran's nuclear program.
The Biden Administration has also been keeping these negotiations secret, most likely to dodge Congress and keep the American people in the dark. This has led to an outrage among officials. "Iran is an adversary and a state sponsor of terrorism," Senator Deb Fischer (R-Neb.), a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, tweeted. "Any back-door agreement here is an attempt to skirt congressional oversight."
"The Biden Admin is long-overdue to address reports of these misguided 'proximity talks' with Iran, Senate Foreign Relations ranking member Senator Jim Risch (R-Idaho) noted on Twitter. "Sanctions relief will only free up cash for the regime's support for Russia, terror proxies, and state-sponsored murder of its own citizens. Shameful."
Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas), chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, wrote Biden a letter warning him about congressional review of any nuclear deal with the regime of Iran, saying:
"I urge the Administration to remember that U.S. law requires that any agreement, arrangement, or understanding with Iran needs to be submitted to Congress pursuant to INARA [the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act of 2015]."
"INARA was enacted with strong bipartisan support to ensure Congressional oversight of U.S. policy regarding Iran's nuclear program.... This definition makes clear that any arrangement or understanding with Iran, even informal, requires submission to Congress." [Emphasis added.]
The Biden administration is already allowing the flow of cash to the top state sponsor of terrorism. As State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller confirmed, the Biden Administration has already allowed Iraq to transfer to Iran $2.76 billion by issuing a waiver for sanctions imposed on the Iranian regime.
"We approved a transaction, consistent with previous transactions that have been approved, to allow Iran to access funds held in accounts in Iraq."
Iran's leaders are doubtless excited about the prospect of resurrecting the nuclear deal for several reasons. First, the return to the nuclear deal means that the current sanctions against Tehran will be lifted and the regime would reportedly receive $100 billion a year "to Destabilise [the] Region," as well as legitimately to rejoin the global financial system. Through the nuclear deal, the Iranian regime will again buy itself a blank check to advance its aggressive and fundamentalist policies across the Middle East, just as it did after the 2015 nuclear deal, but this time with the potential of threatening other countries with its nuclear breakout capability.
A nuclear deal will allow the flow of billions of dollars into the Iranian regime's treasury, thereby providing the funding for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) that they need to escalate their military adventurism in the region. That project includes financing, arming and supporting their terror and militia groups in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and the Gaza Strip, as well as throughout South America (here, here and here).
One possible repercussion of a new nuclear deal is that countries in the region may find no other option than taking military action against Iran, a move that could spiral into regional war. According to retired U.S. Army General Jack Keane:
"To give them another windfall of cash like we did as a result of the 2015 nuclear deal, which led to an expansion of their proxy wars in the Middle East, it doesn't make any sense. It's not in our national interest.... They're gonna fuel their proxy wars and they're seeking domination and control in the Middle East.... That's the windfall that's going to take place, for what? The hold in 60 percent enrichment and curtailing some activities against Syria and Iraq? No, it's not a good deal. It wasn't a good deal in 2015. It's not a good deal now."
*Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a business strategist and advisor, Harvard-educated scholar, political scientist, board member of Harvard International Review, and president of the International American Council on the Middle East. He has authored several books on Islam and US Foreign Policy. He can be reached at Dr.Rafizadeh@Post.Harvard.Edu
© 2023 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/19758/dangerous-nuclear-deal

Israeli army finds itself facing new fronts, also at home
Ron Ben-Yishai/Ybetnews/July 01/2023
Analysis: While the IDF strives to curb Palestinian terrorism and counter Iranian subversion, the primary challenge arises from within, with far-right ministers who aim to set the West Bank alight and reservists who threaten to not report for duty
Since the War of Independence, the defense establishment has not faced a period as complex, dangerous and challenging as the current one. The IDF, Shin Bet and the police are currently compelled to fight not only against external enemies but also simultaneously against internal threats to their institutional nature and functionality. This necessitates top defense officials, starting with Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, to demonstrate creativity and a moral backbone.
The current situation has prompted the defense minister, the IDF chief, the heads of the Shin Bet and the Mossad and the police commissioner to unite and mobilize their forces not only toward combating Palestinian terrorism and Iranian subversion but also toward senior government ministers and their supporters who hold political and ideological agendas that clash with the objectives pursued by the IDF, Shin Bet and the police on the ground.
Some members of the government and their far-right supporters have an interest and an incentive to sow chaos in the West Bank and engage in destructive and lethal behaviors that would compel Palestinians to leave the territory, while defense officials strive to deescalate, separate terrorists from non-involved individuals and strengthen the Palestinian Authority and its institutions.
In fact, the IDF is currently dealing with several fronts simultaneously - the effort to halt Iran's nuclear advancement, the war between wars, fighting in the West Bank, the political situation and the calls to refuse reserves service. Additionally, there is the highly challenging and complex task of confronting the extremist Jewish nationalist crime.
Regional intifada
Some of the criticism against the defense establishment seems justified on the surface. For over a year, a "regional intifada" has been taking place in the northern West Bank, which is not only ongoing but also escalating.
Recently, the number and severity of attacks against Jews have increased, undermining the success of what was once considered Operation Breakwater by the IDF, Shin Bet and the Mossad. Motivated Palestinian youth are engaging in widespread violence, armed with weapons and benefiting from the lack of cooperation from the Palestinian Authority and its security apparatus.
Social media networks enable local terrorist organizations, supported by Iran through Hamas and Islamic Jihad, to organize and amplify their activities with weapons and funding.
As a result, the number of stone-throwing incidents and Molotov cocktail attacks in the West Bank as a whole has more than doubled and tripled compared to the first half of last year.
The number of terror attacks resulting in Jewish casualties has more than doubled this year compared to last year. Furthermore, there has been an increasing number of IEDs thrown at security forces during counterterrorism raids in the northern West Bank.
While most of these devices are small and rudimentary, their quality is improving, and their potency is increasing. This was evident in a recent incident in Jenin, where the IDF had to extract nearly 10 vehicles from Palestinian territory following a complex arrest operation.
Furthermore, there have been recent attempts to launch rudimentary rockets from within the West Bank. Although these incidents are infrequent and the rockets currently do not pose a threat to anyone or anything, they serve as a reminder that Palestinians, with external support, have the potential of developing more sophisticated explosive devices and rockets with improved warheads, expanding their range and capabilities.
Just like after Operation Protective Shield
Following these developments, in recent weeks the IDF and Shin Bet have recognized that the operational methods employed as part of Operation Breakwater have partially exhausted themselves. In fact, over the past week, we have witnessed a certain change in the operational patterns of the IDF, Shin Bet and special units of the Border Police, aiming to bring about a shift.
The current challenges that the IDF is addressing primarily involve shootings on the roads, whether it's from Palestinian vehicles toward Jewish vehicles or armed attacks on Israeli vehicles traveling along the main routes (60, 90, 453 and 5). All of this occurs alongside stone-throwing and Molotov cocktails, which have already become routine on West Bank roads.
The second issue that the security forces are dealing with involves improvised explosive devices (IEDs) and laboratories for manufacturing explosive materials, alongside attempts to smuggle conventional explosives initiated by Iranian initiatives to local organizations in the territory. The third issue is related to rockets, which are primarily addressed on the intelligence level.
In order to effectively suppress all these threats, the IDF is operating on multiple vectors in the northern West Bank. Firstly, there are large-scale arrest raids carried out by forces on a brigade level. Such an operation took place between Monday and Tuesday in Nablus, resulting in the arrest of 13 wanted individuals. They were taken for questioning by the Shin Bet, and it can be assumed that a significant number of arrests and investigations will yield valuable intelligence.Large-scale arrest and suppression operations are increasing alongside small, pinpointed operations, which will continue in places where the Shin Bet and the Military Intelligence Directorate have focused intelligence.
However, there is a tendency to prioritize large-scale arrest and suppression operations over smaller operations that result in friction and a high number of Palestinian casualties, with limited results. The IDF has deployed more than 25 trained infantry battalions to the West Bank, capable of conducting effective arrest and suppression operations on any scale deemed necessary by IDF commanders.
The agents of the Shin Bet's operations unit are usually the ones who pave the way for the forces and "kick down the door." Following them, IDF special units and Border Police enter the pre-identified targets marked by the intelligence agencies, while regular infantry units and reserve battalions serve as a surrounding force for the operation and provide reinforcement when needed.
The military insists that the surge in operations is driven by a commitment to optimize efficiency and reduce the potential risks faced by IDF soldiers when entering Palestinian towns or navigating major routes, rather than political pressures.
However, it is not currently, nor in the foreseeable future, a matter of launching a large-scale Operation Defensive Shield 2-like move. Instead, there is a possibility of targeted operations on a large scale. This aggressive activity aims not only to preempt Palestinian shooting attacks before they reach the routes but also to locate and destroy laboratories for the production of explosive materials and rocket fuel.
In addition to ground-based counterterrorism raids, the IDF has been operating for about two weeks on the main traffic routes to prevent attacks on Israeli vehicles, installations and residents.
The most significant development is the deployment of UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles) to neutralize terrorist groups in the northern West Bank. This approach will persist and could be further enhanced if the IDF utilizes combat helicopters, a practice that has been absent in the West Bank for a long time.
Nonetheless, these operations will be carried out with care and only under conditions that minimize unintended harm while maximizing the effective utilization of these resources.
Additionally, the IDF and the Border Police have set up surprise checkpoints, positioned ambushes alongside roads and conducted patrols. Furthermore, thanks to intelligence, the IDF does not hesitate to impose lockdowns on Palestinian villages that are indicated as hotspots. The closure prevents uncontrolled access from these villages to the main routes.
The IDF is seemingly dedicating significant resources in the northern West Bank, reminiscent of the Second Intifada following Operation Defensive Shield.
The subsequent Operation Determined Path capitalized on the IDF’s presence in Palestinian cities and enabled the Shin Bet to gather intelligence and significantly suppress terrorist activities based on past successes. This parallel can be drawn to the ongoing situation in the northern West Bank, with the possibility of expanding these measures. Encouragingly, there have been tangible results thus far: no terrorist attacks have occurred since the Alon Moreh incident and the targeted assassination of the terrorist cell by air.
Nationalist crime and reduced preparedness
However, alongside the fight against Palestinian terrorism, the IDF has recently been forced to deal with a surge in nationalist violence and vigilantism among Jews on a scale not seen in over a decade.
"What has changed is the number of people participating in these acts of nationalist violence," says a senior security official. "In certain incidents, we have seen hundreds of individuals taking the law into their own hands, setting fires, vandalizing and attacking Palestinian villages."
The high-ranking official notes that the IDF attempted to stop the perpetrators, but the forces at its disposal were insufficient because most of the troops and commanders were engaged in suppressing Palestinian terrorism, leaving them spread too thin.
In a meeting with the brigade commanders in the West Bank, they informed IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi that in order to curb Jewish rioters, they require a significant number of personnel who can physically block the troublemakers using crowd control measures. Otherwise, they would have to resort to live fire. Curbing nationalist-Jewish criminal activity also necessitates the presence of senior commanders in the field to prevent an escalation that could spiral out of control.
Settlers attack the Palestinian town of Turmus Aya following the terrorist shooting near Eli
These circumstances lead to two potential outcomes: either scaling back the IDF's counterterrorism operations or facing the possibility that Jewish rioters, who have become adept at mobilizing in large numbers armed with flammable materials, will effectively outmaneuver the comparatively limited security forces opposing them.
The IDF has increased its troop deployment and training in the West Bank, leading to a notable impact on the military's readiness and preparedness. Consequently, the defense minister, IDF chief, head of the Shin Bet and the police commissioner are urging government ministers to intervene and persuade their supporters in the West Bank to end nationalist violence and criminal activities.
These actions not only affect the operational readiness and training of the IDF but also undermine the international legitimacy the IDF has in countering terrorism in the West Bank. Moreover, the morale of IDF commanders is severely affected by the physical and verbal confrontations with extremists, as well as the direct or covert backing they receive from government officials.
The IDF's efforts to calm the northern West Bank and prevent a general uprising in the West Bank have also led the defense minister to call Hussein al-Sheikh, the de facto deputy of Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas.
The IDF chief and Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories Ghassan Alian support such a dialogue as part of the efforts to enable the Palestinian Authority to deploy its security forces in the northern West Bank over which it has lost control.
The main argument the defense minister presented to al-Sheikh is that the Palestinian Authority's security forces can prevent Palestinian casualties in clashes with IDF forces through proactive measures and that Israel is specifically interested in improving the economic situation in the territories.
However, according to Israeli sources, it seems that Israel's pleas are falling on deaf ears, as Abbas is focused on a political struggle against Israel and is unwilling to consider improving security coordination with Israel or his forces acting in the Nablus and Jenin areas.
Iran is trying to restrict freedom of action
Simultaneously with operations in the West Bank, the IDF continues to confront Iran’s proxies. These groups attempt to infiltrate the territories, providing funds and combat capabilities to terrorist organizations. Iran seeks to advance its nuclear program, establish militias in Syria and supply high-quality weapons to both Syria and Hezbollah.
Israel's efforts primarily focus on intelligence, aiming to intercept money transfers and combat supplies to the territories. It closely monitors Iranian uranium enrichment activities and the evolving developments between the United States and Iran regarding the suspension of uranium enrichment in exchange for the lifting of U.S. sanctions.
Israeli officials acknowledge that curtailing enrichment beyond 60% alone is insufficient, as Iran, through these developments, maintains a position that enables it to break through toward nuclear weapons production within a few weeks, effectively becoming a "nuclear threshold state."
Israeli officials understand their inability to halt the developments between the United States and Iran. However, they are simultaneously striving to ensure that the United States poses a credible military threat to Iran if it enriches uranium beyond 90%.
Former President Donald Trump played a role in assisting Israel in creating a credible threat against Iran when he disclosed to his aides the covert plans presented to him by General Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, for an attack on Iran. The release of the recordings on CNN, in which Trump discusses the attack plans presented to him by Milley, both serve Israeli deterrence and land the former president in hot soup.
As part of the ongoing war between wars, the main effort seems to be preventing Iran from transferring advanced surface-to-air missile batteries to its allies in Syria and Lebanon. Iran is currently attempting to limit the freedom of action enjoyed by the Israeli Air Force in the skies of Syria and Lebanon. Through various means at its disposal, Iran is supplying different types of surface-to-air missile batteries to militias in Syria and Hezbollah in Lebanon. The IDF has successfully countered this effort.
What complicates Israel's security situation and poses a moral and psychological burden is the fact that its senior officials, as well as soldiers in the field, are forced to contend with threats from within, stemming from the Israeli public.
The defense minister, the IDF chief, the head of the Shin Bet and the police commissioner implement operational activities based on practical considerations and urgent assessments, which discern the necessary changes in the deployment of forces in the field.
In contrast, the government and the Cabinet currently operate to a large extent based on political and ideological motives and considerations that are not operational in nature. Even worse, they serve a hidden agenda of Otzma Yehudit ministers and some Likud officials who aspire to ignite the West Bank and drive out their Palestinian residents.
And that's not all - the protest against the judicial overhaul has led many volunteers in the reserves to refuse to report for duty, which also presents a complex dilemma for the heads of the defense establishment and elicits demanding statements of "asserting control" from far-right ministers.
New tactic against refusniks
After a period of confusion and searching for direction, it appears that the leaders of the security establishment have adopted a mode of operation that enables them to appease far-right ministers while keeping the governmental and military institutions intact. When confronted with protests and instances of so-called insubordination, the IDF is working to mitigate tensions with reservists who, as civilians, act based on political or ideological motivations.
The IDF chief and the General Staff generals, for example, with the approval of the defense minister, have decided not to take drastic steps against reservists who declare that they will refuse to volunteer for reserve duty. The IDF will take decisive steps only if isolated reservists refuse to attend training or engage in operational activities specified in explicit orders from the IDF and their immediate commanders.
It could be a pilot refusing to participate in a mission over Syria or a reservist called to serve in the territories. If these individuals claim that they are refusing due to protest against government actions, the IDF will handle them according to the regulations of military law and based on the primary consideration of maintaining the military's readiness and preparedness.
Anything that does not harm the military's readiness and preparedness is of no concern to the IDF, and those who wish to express their opinions are free to do so. The IDF and other security bodies will not pay attention, except in one case - if reservists attempt to incite regular soldiers to refuse orders or engage in other forms of insubordination.
From his side, the prime minister tries to assist the heads of the security establishment by strongly condemning violence, nationalistic crime and the occasional statements by Otzma Yehudit ministers, which are hard to believe are coming from government officials.
In response to Netanyahu, IAEA denies watering down standards in Iran investigation
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Ynet News

Europe’s rapidly changing security map bolsters NATO
Andrew Hammond/Arab News/July 01, 2023
Much media bandwidth has been taken up in the past year or so by the economic repercussions of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, the conflict is also redrawing Europe’s military map, which is a pressing issue in the run-up to NATO’s annual leadership summit this month.
The most prominent development has been Finland’s incorporation into the Western military alliance, and also the pending accession of Sweden. Moreover, Denmark, which is already a NATO member, voted last year to scrap an opt-out clause that for three decades kept it out of the EU’s common defense policy.
These are huge changes for nations with a history of wartime neutrality and/or keeping a distance from military alliances.
Russia’s invasion shattered a long-standing sense of stability in Northern Europe, leaving Denmark, Sweden and Finland, among others, feeling vulnerable. The irony, of course, is that far from achieving his aim of less of a NATO presence on his doorstep, Russian President Vladimir Putin now has more NATO than ever in his neighborhood, including just across the 830-mile border with Finland.
While the Finnish, Swedish and Danish developments are particularly striking, there has been a much wider rethinking of the European security landscape. This includes debates in other countries with non-NATO, “neutral” status, including Switzerland, Ireland, Austria and Malta.
These four nations have joined the European sanctions against Russia and this has had consequences, particularly for non-EU member Switzerland. Russia’s ambassador to the country, Sergei Garmonin, has said, for example, that Moscow will no longer accept any Swiss-hosted peace summit on Ukraine’s future, as had been proposed by President Volodymyr Zelensky, on the grounds that the nation’s reputation for neutrality has been damaged.
More fundamentally, there has been a significant increase in military spending across Europe. Germany, for example, has announced major new investment in its military and reversed a post-war policy that prevented it from sending lethal weapons to conflict zones.
This transformation has been encouraged by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, a former German defense minister who has advocated for the establishment of a combined European army. She wants the bloc to become a more muscular global power and has emphasized the degree to which the conflict in Ukraine is “fundamentally challenging” Europe’s peace architecture.
It is not only the situation in Ukraine that is driving these shifts, however, but also a wider threat landscape, including Western concerns about China. Moreover, Brexit eliminated a longstanding obstacle to greater European cooperation in the security sphere, given that successive UK governments had long opposed deeper defense integration at the EU level.
Add to this, too, the uncertainty about transatlantic ties that arose during the presidency of Donald Trump. Concerns about this across the continent have not gone away, given fears that the result of the 2016 presidential election that put him in the White House might be repeated in 2024.
NATO faces some major challenges during its eighth decade, with its immediate fortunes resting largely on the outcome of the conflict in Ukraine.
Certainly, the EU still has a long way to go before it becomes the strategically autonomous goliath championed by some. But the tide is turning and it is against this backdrop that the NATO summit takes place this month.
After coming under the most strain it has endured in its seven-decade history, during Trump’s presidency, the transatlantic alliance’s own fortunes have also shifted significantly in the past year or so. US officials, including former National Security Adviser John Bolton, have confirmed that Trump came close to announcing a US withdrawal from NATO, an organization co-created by Washington in the immediate aftermath of the Second World War, which would have been a severe body blow to its future credibility.
The nadir of that troubled period came during the extraordinary scenes in 2018 when, as Trump threw the alliance’s annual summit into disarray by threatening to withdraw, a series of key announcements and press conferences were canceled.
To make matters worse, Trump not only criticized NATO colleagues but in the days that followed had a cordial meeting with Putin in Helsinki. This alarmed not only Canada and Washington’s Western European allies, but sent a chill down the spines of authorities in Eastern European states, many of which were formerly part of the Soviet Union.
Yet, the challenges within NATO during the Trump era were by no means only of his making. One of his critiques of the alliance, that more than half of its members at the time did not spend the prescribed 2 percent of their gross domestic product on defense, was a longstanding sore point that other US presidents had highlighted.
Moreover, Trump was not the only alliance leader to criticize NATO around that time. Take, for example, French President Emmanuel Macron’s astonishing assertion in 2019 that the organization was experiencing “brain death.”
Fast forward to 2023, however, and the crisis in Ukraine, coupled with concerns about China, have underscored the continuing relevance of this Western alliance of countries with a collective population of about 1 billion. For all its weaknesses, NATO remains one of the world’s most successful military alliances and it has helped underpin the longest period of sustained peace in the modern history of the West.
There will be a huge show of unity during the two-day summit on July 11-12, and there is the possibility of an announcement about a pathway to membership for Ukraine. Moreover, in face of new challenges — and opportunities — the alliance is already recalibrating its strategic direction. During recent summits, for instance, new perceived threats such as China have been formally discussed for the first time.
One other bonus development for the prospect of improved intra-alliance harmony is that the longstanding burden-sharing issue — which was perhaps Trump’s biggest gripe, given that the US funds about two thirds of total NATO defense spending — might be moving closer to resolution. Many NATO states are pushing ahead with significant increases in defense spending, including much of the EU membership.
Taken overall, the NATO summit will seek to bring a stronger sense of solidarity to the alliance. Yet, as much as there will be a significant show of unity, the organization still faces some major challenges during its eighth decade, with its immediate fortunes resting largely on the outcome of the conflict in Ukraine.
• Andrew Hammond is an associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics.