English LCCC Newsbulletin For
Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For December 29/2022
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news
The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/aaaanewsfor2021/english.december29.22.htm
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Bible Quotations For today
An angel of the Lord appeared to Joseph in a dream and said, ‘Get up, take the
child and his mother, and flee to Egypt, and remain there until I tell you; for
Herod is about to search for the child, to destroy him
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Matthew 02/13-18/:”Now after they
had left, an angel of the Lord appeared to Joseph in a dream and said, ‘Get up,
take the child and his mother, and flee to Egypt, and remain there until I tell
you; for Herod is about to search for the child, to destroy him.’Then Joseph got
up, took the child and his mother by night, and went to Egypt, and remained
there until the death of Herod. This was to fulfil what had been spoken by the
Lord through the prophet, ‘Out of Egypt I have called my son.’ When Herod saw
that he had been tricked by the wise men, he was infuriated, and he sent and
killed all the children in and around Bethlehem who were two years old or under,
according to the time that he had learned from the wise men. Then was fulfilled
what had been spoken through the prophet Jeremiah: ‘A voice was heard in Ramah,
wailing and loud lamentation, Rachel weeping for her children; she refused to be
consoled, because they are no more.”
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese &
Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on December 28-29/2022/
God Bless Mohamad Chatah’s Soul/Elias Bejjani/December 27/2022
A Decorative, Or A facade President?/Etienne Saqr – Abu Arz/December 27/2022
European investigators to visit Lebanon as part of Riad Salameh inquiry
Salameh tells citizens to head to AMBank to benefit from 38,000 rate
Geagea slams 'attempt to impose' president, urges 'real' head of state
Al-Rahi: Country in danger, attacks on Rmeish unacceptable
Aude meets Mikati, says security 'can't be outsourced'
Gunshots fired at al-Jadeed TV after Molotov attack
Berri meets Spanish Prime Minister in Ain El-Tineh
Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs at AUB holds
conference on political violence, impact of archives on memory and...
Contaminated cancer drug batch identified in Lebanon, Yemen
US boosts UNICEF aid to back Lebanon's response to cholera outbreak
Hezbollah wants spotlight off Lebanon after Irish UN peacekeeper killing -
analysis/Seth J. Frantzman/Jerusalem Post/December 28/2022
Titles For The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on December 28-29/2022/
Pope Francis asks for prayers for former pontiff Benedict/Head of the
Roman Catholic Church describes his predecessor as 'very sick'
Britain urges Iran to stop ‘unfairly detaining’ dual nationals
Turkiye, Syria, Russia defense ministers meet for first talks since 2011
Saudi FM: We support international efforts to resolve Ukraine crisis politically
Israel has improved readiness to attack Iran, minister says
Netanyahu names ex-general Yoav Galant as defense minister
Israeli vow to annex West Bank
Putin bans Russian oil exports to countries that imposed price cap: Decree
Ukraine has freed more than 1,450 POWs since Russia invaded: Zelenskyy
Explainer: What is Zelenskyy’s 10-point peace plan?
Chief of Russia's Gazprom admits 'difficult' year
Kosovo shuts main border crossing with Serbia
Tunisian prosecutors move to try 13 judges on 'terror' charges
Fears of extremist campaign after attack on US power substations
Titles For The
Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published
on December 28-29/2022/
Taliban’s misogyny has dire consequences/Dr. Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg/Arab
News/December 28, 2022
Deepening Russia-Iran Relationship Should Worry Israel/Nadav Pollak/The
Washington Institute./December 28/2022
A Stabilizing Factor: Oman’s Quiet Influence amid Mounting Uncertainty in the
Gulf/Leonardo Jacopo Maria Mazzucco/The Washington Institute/December 28/2022
To Ease Syria’s Energy Crisis, Assad Must Return to the Negotiating Table/Andrew
J. Tabler, Erik Yavorsky/The Washington Institute/December 28/2022
Why bilateralism is key to any Saudi-Israeli agreement/Tony Badran/Al Arabiya/December
28/2022
on December 28-29/2022/
God Bless Mohamad Chatah’s Soul
Elias Bejjani/Published on December 27/13, The Day Mohamad Chatah was
assassinated
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/11050/elias-bejjanigod-bless-mohamad-chatahs-soul/
Once again the Iranian-Syrian Evil Of Axis
Criminals brutally assassinate a patriotic, peaceful and intellectual Lebanese
dignitary. Today, in occupied and oppressed Lebanon, the former Lebanese
minister Mohamad Chatah was murdered in a massive car bomb blast that killed
also and seriously injured tens of innocent citizens in Lebanon’s capital,
Beirut.
Mohamad Chatah, the courageous outspoken 62 years old moderate academic and
noble political figure strongly believed in a free and sovereign Lebanon,
dialogue, the language of reason, and in the right to different views and
political stances.
Sadly, this morning, Chatah joined all the other patriotic and heroic Lebanese
martyrs who with faith and devotion fell while struggling to reclaim Lebanon’s
confiscated independence, sovereignty and freedoms.
There is no doubt that the Assad dictatorship intelligence and the terrorist
Hezbollah Iranian militia are behind this horrible crime, as they were with
evilness and shame accountable for all other similar crimes that occurred since
1960 and targeted Lebanese patriotic leaders, clergymen, officials and
politicians.
It is worth mentioning that Chatah’s assassination took place three weeks before
the long-delayed opening of a trial of five Hezbollah suspects indicted for the
2005 bombing that killed former Lebanese PM Rafik al-Hariri with 21 other
individuals.
The Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL), trial is due to start next month in
Hague. The suspects are all prominent Hezbollah military members. Meanwhile this
terrorist Iranian organization has strongly refused to cooperate with the court,
alleging it is politically motivated.
In my capacity as a Canadian – Lebanese Human Rights Activist and political
commentator, I strongly and with the harshest terms condemn this barbaric and
terrorist crime and call on the free world countries to help the Lebanese people
and its patriotic and peaceful leaders by all available means and resources to
reclaim Lebanon’s independence that is confiscated by Hezbollah, the
Iranian-Syrian Axis of Evil military proxy
Deepest sympathies are extended to the families and friends of those killed in
today, and all wish for a speedy recovery to all the injured.
May the souls of all those innocent victims that were killed today rest in
peace.
A Decorative, Or A facade President?
Etienne Saqr – Abu Arz/December 27/2022
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/114452/114452/
Statement from the Guardians of the Cedars – Movement of Lebanese Nationalists,
(in the Lebanese language).
Any one who says that we must elect a new president as soon as possible, and in
this current political atmosphere, he is definitely either fooling himself, or
deceiving the Lebanese people.
The current ruling gangsters and thugs, can not produce anything, but a
president who resembles them. These thugs and the present political atmosphere
can only bring out a consensual president, or a follower of “Hezbollah”.
1- A consensual president means, a non-Binary individual (neither female nor
male), who is A decorative, or a facade President?
Such a president will be obliged and forced to satisfy and appease the interests
of all the political blocs, and political parties that elected him, at the
expense of the interests of Lebanon. and the Lebanese. Such a status quo, with
such a president will prevail for six years, dragging us backwards, or at best,
a stalemate situation with the same miserable current status quo.
2- A president affiliated with “Hezbollah”, means a clone from the previous era.
May Almighty God save us from another six years in the flames of hell.
I, stated more than once, and will repeat, that the presidential vacuum at the
present time, with a caretaker government, remains much better than a bad
president, who will be riding on the back of our people for another six years.
Our people, ask me what is the solution? My response: the revolution is the only
solution.
Meanwhile, if our people do not take their rights into their own hands, no one
will offer them these rights on a silver platter.
Long Live Lebanon.
Etienne Saqr – Abu Arz
(Translated freely by Elias Bejjani)
European investigators to visit Lebanon as
part of Riad Salameh inquiry
The National/December 27/2022
Governor of the Bank of Lebanon is being investigated over financial dealings in
at least five European countries
Investigators from three European countries will visit Lebanon next month as
part of an inquiry into embattled central bank governor Riad Salameh. In March,
France, Germany and Luxembourg seized properties and froze assets worth $130
million in an operation linked to an investigation launched by French
investigators into Mr Salameh's personal wealth. A team including prosecutors
and investigative judges from the three countries will arrive in Beirut in
mid-January, a judicial official told AFP. Two Lebanese judicial sources
confirmed the story when contacted by The National. They will look into the
activities of Mr Salameh, 72, and other officials at the Banque Du Liban, as
well as the heads of Lebanese commercial banks. Mr Salameh is being investigated
over his financial dealings in at least five European countries. Lebanon opened
an investigation into Mr Salameh's wealth last year after the office of
Switzerland's senior prosecutor requested assistance in a case in which Mr
Salame allegedly embezzled about $330 million from the central bank with the
help of his brother Raja via a company registered in the Virgin Islands.
Liechtenstein’s prosecutor general said in November last year that the country
had opened a “money-laundering investigation” into Mr Salameh. In June, a
Lebanese prosecutor investigating Mr Salameh on suspicion of financial
misconduct requested charges be issued against him based on preliminary
findings.
Mr Salameh and his brother deny any wrongdoing.
Last week, a Lebanese judge froze property assets belonging to prominent
Lebanese actress Stephanie Saliba, who was questioned in an investigation into
alleged corruption by Mr Salameh. Investigators are looking into the sources of
funds Mr Salameh used to buy the actress expensive gifts — including property.
The judge who froze the property assets told The National last week that Saliba
has two “very expensive apartments” in the fashionable Gemmayze neighbourhood of
Beirut, one in Beit Misk in the Metn region, about 20km east of Beirut and
another in Ghazir, in Keserwan district, about the same distance north of the
capital. The judge involved, Mount Lebanon prosecutor Ghada Aoun, has previously
raided the central bank and properties belonging to Mr Salameh, but were unable
to locate him. Lebanon is embroiled in an economic crisis that first emerged in
2019 and which has been blamed on decades of corruption and financial
mismanagement. As the governor of the Banque du Liban since 1993, Mr Salameh is
seen by many as a key figure in the country's financial downturn. The crisis has
plunged much of Lebanon into poverty, while the local currency has lost more
than 95 per cent of its value against the US dollar. The country faces severe
shortages of essentials such as clean water, electricity and medicine. Earlier
this week, the Lebanese pound had slipped to a record 47,000 pounds to the
dollar on the parallel market, the most used rate. That led the central bank on
Tuesday to slash the value of the Lebanese pound to 38,000 per US dollar on its
Sayrafa trading platform, one of several exchange rates in Lebanon. Lebanon’s
official rate is 1,500 pounds per dollar, but it is largely meaningless now.
Salameh tells citizens to head to AMBank to
benefit from 38,000 rate
Naharnet/December 28, 2022
Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh on Wednesday said citizens can head to any
AMBank branch to carry out Sayrafa currency exchanges at the LBP 38,000 rate
should their bank refuse to conduct the transaction.
“The aforementioned bank has agreed to carry out these operations,” Salameh
added, in a statement. He also called on “banks willing to take a similar step
to submit a request to the central bank so that it gets approved.” Salameh’s
move comes after the owners of fuel stations and distributors decried that they
have not been able to buy dollars from commercial banks at the new Sayrafa rate.
Refusing to suffer losses, the majority of stations closed across Lebanon as
long queues formed at those that remained open. The black market dollar exchange
rate had witnessed a dramatic drop on Tuesday after Salameh announced that banks
would start selling dollars to the public at a Sayrafa platform rate of LBP
38,000. Salameh also said Tuesday that “individuals and institutions, and
without sum limits, can apply to all Lebanese banks to carry out these
operations until further announcement.” The black market rate had reached the
LBP 48,000 mark on Monday.
Geagea slams 'attempt to impose' president, urges 'real'
head of state
Naharnet/December 28, 2022
Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea has slammed what he described as an “attempt
to impose a president” by the Hezbollah-led camp, as he stressed that the
country needs a “real” head of state. “What is happening today is not due to the
might of the Axis of Defiance, but rather due to the weakness of those who
should have shouldered their responsibilities and are still refusing to do so,”
Geagea said at an LF dinner. “The Axis of Defiance has not been able to secure
the election of the candidate it wants, and accordingly it is blocking the
election. This honestly is not a democratic nor a political, honorable or a
patriotic act. It is rather an extremely despicable act that undermines
democracy, patriotism and Lebanon,” the LF leader added. “They are saying that
they want a president who protect the back of the resistance, but do we need a
president who would protect Hezbollah’s back or do we need him to protect the
back of the Lebanese?” Geagea wondered. Lamenting that the other camp wants a
president who would “implement their schemes and join them in what they are
doing,” the LF leader decried a perceived attempt to “impose” such a president.
Addressing those saying that they don’t want a “provocative president,” Geagea
said: “What we’re demanding is not at all aimed at provocation; we’re rather
seeking a real president who would be at the same distance from everyone.”“His
only concern should be the implementation of the constitution and restoring the
state’s decision,” Geagea stressed.
Al-Rahi: Country in danger, attacks on Rmeish unacceptable
Naharnet/December 28, 2022
Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi on Wednesday warned that the country is “in
danger.”“The country is in danger, because the constitution is in one place and
we’re heading to another place,” al-Rahi said, during a meeting with a Kataeb
Party delegation.
“The people are receiving the blows and the parliamentary blocs do not have the
right to continue what they’re doing in the presidential file,” the patriarch
added. Separately, al-Rahi said that the recent attacks on lands owned by
residents of the southern border town of Rmeish are “unacceptable,” noting that
they resemble “what happened in Lassa.”“The relevant authorities have informed
us that they are incapable of doing anything. When we asked if there is a law or
not, they answered that it exists but that they can’t enforce it,” the patriarch
added.
Aude meets Mikati, says security 'can't be outsourced'
Naharnet/December 28, 2022
Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati on Wednesday held a meeting with Greek
Orthodox Metropolitan of Beirut Elias Aude. “His Eminence supports the election
of a president as soon as possible and within the real democratic system,”
Mikati said after the talks. “As for security, His Eminence said that security
cannot be outsourced and that the state should be fully in charge of citizens’
security,” Mikati added. “Security must be strict and let no one think that they
can replace the state,” the premier quoted Aude as saying. The Metropolitan also
raised “many questions” related to the probe into the Beirut port explosion and
the file of aid for those affected, Mikati added.
Gunshots fired at al-Jadeed TV after Molotov attack
Naharnet/December 28, 2022
Unknown assailants fired gunshots after midnight toward al-Jadeed TV building in
Beirut’s Wata el-Msaitbeh area, around 24 hours after a Molotov bomb was hurled
at the station’s premises, the TV network said on Wednesday. “The shots fired in
the vicinity of the building were heard across the area and security forces have
launched an investigation,” al-Jadeed said. Authorities are “carrying out a
comprehensive combing of al-Jadeed’s building and the neighboring buildings in
search of bullet marks,” the TV network added. The station’s public relations
director Ibrahim al-Halabi meanwhile warned that “this attack might subject the
neighboring buildings to harm, not only the station’s building.”The incidents
are believed to be linked to an uproar over a recent comedy segment aired on al-Jadeed
that was deemed offensive to southerners and southern women.
Berri meets Spanish Prime Minister in Ain El-Tineh
NNA/December 28, 2022
House Speaker, Nabih Berri, on Wednesday evening met at the Second Presidency in
Ain El-Tineh, with visiting Spanish Prime Minister, Pedro Sánchez, accompanied
by Spanish Minister of Defense, Margarita Robles, and Spanish Ambassador to
Lebanon, Jesus Santos Aguado.
Talks reportedly touched on the general situation in Lebanon and the region, and
the bilateral relations between Lebanon and Spain. Speaker Berri praised the
visit of the Spanish prime minister and the accompanying delegation to Lebanon,
especially at this stage, heaping praise on Spain's role and support for
Lebanon, especially through its participation in the UNIFIL forces in southern
Lebanon. Berri also hailed the historical relationship with UNIFIL.
Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International
Affairs at AUB holds conference on political violence, impact of archives on
memory and...
NNA/December 28, 2022
On the occasion of the International Day of Commemoration and Dignity of the
Victims of the Crime of Genocide and of the Prevention of this Crime, the Issam
Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs (IFI) at the
American University of Beirut (AUB), in collaboration with the Armenian General
Benevolent Union (AGBU) Lebanon and Lepsius Haus Potsdam, held a hybrid
conference titled “Memory and Justice: Remembrance in the Aftermath of Political
Violence.” The conference took place on December 9, 2022, with panel discussions
covering the importance of archives in the analysis and interpretation of
history, as well as regional experiences in the modification of history and
memory and its repercussions on justice. “This is the sixth edition of this
conference series that IFI holds regularly with AGBU,” Dr. Joseph Bahout, IFI
director, noted in his opening remarks. “This is the sixth conference that we
hold around the same thematic of genocide, justice, memory, remembrance,
reparation, and other very painful issues. It is my personal view, and one I
believe AGBU’s leaders also share, that we have started to build an intellectual
and conceptual coherence around a very important theme, not only politically but
intellectually and conceptually on how to think about past wounds and traumas,
and how to treat them politically and historically.” Bahout concluded that
“without this, there can’t be a peaceful present nor a peaceful future.”
Executive Director of AGBU Lebanon Arine Ghazarian, said that “on this occasion,
we honor and remember the victims of the crime of genocide while AGBU continues
its 116-year history of driving thoughtful conversations and impactful
programming, as the largest Armenian philanthropic organization in the world to
support the global Armenian nation through cultural, educational, humanitarian,
and socio-economic development initiatives.” Ghazarian added that “the Genocide
Convention was adopted in December 1948 and it was the first human rights treaty
adopted by the UN General Assembly. Since 2016, AGBU has been proudly standing
with the United Nations to highlight the issue of genocide awareness, human
rights, and refugee’s assistance.”
Director of Lepsius Haus Potsdam and keynote speaker Dr. Roy Knocke highlighted
the importance of archives in the analysis and interpretation of history.
Describing archives as the “crooked timber of memory,” Knocke stressed on the
subjectivity of these documents and how memory could be modified and changed
according to various factors. As such, Knocke claimed that there are “different
perspectives of the same historical event found in an archive. History is a vast
canvas of grey zones, which we should approach with objectivity.”
The conference’s panel discussions covered the process of archives collection,
uses and misuses of archives and their storage, as well as how archives stand as
independent and historical witness and their relation to transitional justice.
The case studies of the Yazidis, Cambodia, and Lebanon were also presented. The
conference ended with a fireside chat on accountability mechanisms, highlighting
the new methods of archiving and documentation, including the role of social
media as archiving institutions.
A recording of the entire conference can be watched online on IFI’s Facebook
page.
Contaminated cancer drug batch identified in Lebanon, Yemen
Naharnet/December 28, 2022
A batch of a contaminated drug for the treatment of cancer and autoimmune
diseases has been identified in Lebanon and Yemen, the World Health Organization
has warned. The WHO said the alert refers to “one batch of substandard
(contaminated) METHOTREXTM (methotrexate) 50mg.”“Following adverse events in
pediatric patients receiving METHOTREXTM 50mg, the health authorities in both
Yemen and Lebanon conducted microbiological testing on the remaining unopened
vials of METHOTREXTM 50mg. Results in both countries were positive for
Pseudomonas aeruginosa, indicating contamination of the products,” the WHO
added. The stated manufacturer, CELON Laboratories Pvt Ltd., confirmed to WHO
that the batch number, manufacturing, and expiry dates combination match their
internal records. At this stage, the manufacturer has not had access to samples
of the suspect products for its own confirmatory testing. Methotrexate is a
chemotherapy agent and immune system suppressant. It may be given by intrathecal,
intramuscular, intravenous, or intra-arterial routes. Patients receiving
methotrexate treatment may have weakened immune systems and be more vulnerable
to opportunistic infections.
Pseudomonas aeruginosa bloodstream infection is a serious infection that may
lead to death and any product that has any contamination and is administered
directly in the body would present serious risks to patients. The WHO noted that
METHOTREXTM 50mg batch MTI2101BAQ was intended to be “sold exclusively on the
Indian market,” noting that the batch available in Yemen and Lebanon was
“procured outside the regulated supply chain.” “Therefore, the stated
manufacturer cannot guarantee the safety of this product which was not destined
for these markets,” the WHO added. “However, it is likely that this product may
have been distributed to other countries through informal markets. It is
important to detect and remove this contaminated product from circulation to
prevent harm to patients,” it warned. The WHO also urged increased surveillance
and diligence within the supply chains of countries and regions likely to be
affected by this product, adding that increased surveillance of the
informal/unregulated market is also advised. “Competent authorities are advised
to immediately notify the WHO if this product is discovered in their respective
market,” it said. In remarks to MTV, the head of the Order of Pharmacists of
Lebanon, Joe Salloum, said the drug had been “smuggled” into Lebanon and that it
is present in some hospitals and not in pharmacies.
US boosts UNICEF aid to back Lebanon's response to cholera outbreak
Naharnet/December 28, 2022
In response to the Cholera outbreak in Lebanon, the United States Government has
made available an additional $1.3 million for UNICEF’s emergency response to
contain Cholera and stop transmission in affected areas, UNICEF and the U.S.
Embassy in Beirut said in a joint statement. Since the start of the outbreak,
UNICEF has been ramping up prevention efforts with partners on the ground to
strengthen the health response through the provision of medicine and hygiene
kits; the sanitation systems and hygiene practices at the household and
community levels, focusing on areas already experiencing an outbreak and those
at high risk.Through this new U.S. Government funding, UNICEF will be able to
scale up its support by improving access to safe water and sanitation across
facilities and water points in hotspot areas and personal hygiene through the
distribution of Disinfection Kits and Cholera Family Hygiene Kits to vulnerable
communities. “The United States counts UNICEF among its most important
partners,” said U.S. Ambassador Dorothy Shea. “As we enter the new year and
confront both new and ongoing challenges, the United States looks forward to a
continuing coordination with the Government of Lebanon and other donor
countries, our United Nations and civil society partners, and most importantly,
the recipients of our humanitarian assistance. We are in this together,” Shea
added. “Through the support of our international partners, we were able to
successfully respond to the cholera outbreak and this is very important
especially in these challenging times that the country is facing,” said Firass
Abiad, the caretaker minister of public health. “All of this was possible
because of donors headed by the Government of the United States, through their
support to hospitals and health centers, and also through the efforts of
international organizations namely UNICEF, WHO, UNHCR, as well as other
partners,” Abiad added. Through existing funding from the U.S. Government,
UNICEF also procured and distributed emergency medical supplies to hospitals
designated for Cholera management, including 150,000 Oral Rehydration Salts
(ORS) and 40 Cholera Treatment Kits to support the treatment of 5,000 cholera
cases and symptoms including moderate to severe diarrhea. Additional orders have
been received and many more supplies will be delivered in the coming weeks.
“Containing and preventing cholera is a priority for UNICEF and we are employing
every effort to support the government to ensure the safeguarding of children
and their families,” said Edouard Beigbeder, UNICEF Representative in Lebanon.
“Sustainable access to safe water and sanitation is critical to prevent
recurring outbreaks, alongside building strong healthcare systems and engaging
with communities to raise awareness and support good hygiene practices. I want
to thank the United States Government for their continuous, sustainable support
of children and families affected by this terrible crisis,” Beigbeder added.
Hezbollah wants spotlight off Lebanon after Irish UN
peacekeeper killing - analysis
Seth J. Frantzman/Jerusalem Post/December 28/2022
Clearly the government of Ireland, the UN and others will want answers. However,
there is also an agenda to not rock the boat in Lebanon.
More than a week after an Irish UN peacekeeper was killed and others wounded in
an attack on their vehicle in a village in Lebanon, reports say a suspect has
been handed over to authorities. However, the reports indicate that Hezbollah,
the Lebanese terror group which is also a political party in parliament, was
involved in handing the man over. This follows days in which Hezbollah claimed
it was not responsible for the killing, but said the killing was also
“unintended,” implying it had some kind of a role. Hezbollah controls the area
of southern Lebanon where the UN vehicle was ambushed and the men killed.
According to pro-Hezbollah accounts, the UN vehicle strayed into a village which
is not on its usual route. However, that doesn’t explain the killings. Instead,
those who excused the attack claimed the vehicle had come through the streets at
night when men were on the streets watching the World Cup. An altercation
occurred and the men murdered the driver of the vehicle. This doesn’t make a lot
of sense, since it can’t be logical that Hezbollah both controls what happens
but then can walk away from responsibility when there are attacks like this.
A message from Hezbollah?
The brutality of the attack, in which men fired at the windows and then ripped
open the rear of the vehicle and shot seven times into the car, illustrates a
vicious attack. This is not normal and it indicates that the men doing the
shooting felt impunity. Was this a message from Hezbollah? Is it possible that
the men made a mistake? The car was armored and clearly marked UN, so anyone
shooting at it knew what they were doing. Hezbollah understands that the focus
is on the terror group. It has thus facilitated handing over a suspect.
According to reports, the Lebanese army detained the man in a deal coordinated
with Hezbollah. This shows the degree to which Hezbollah controls Lebanon. It
functions as a powerful terror entity that is more powerful than the state
itself. It conducts Lebanon’s foreign and military policy, threatening other
countries and sending forces to fight in places like Syria. It also feels free
to carry out extrajudicial assassinations in Lebanon and elsewhere. As such, it
is the group that decides law and order, and whether the Lebanese army will
operate or not. According to the reports, the man that was detained is a
supporter but not a “member” of Hezbollah. What is not explained is why this man
and others chose to attack the UN vehicle. Why did the man shoot at a clearly
marked UN vehicle? It doesn’t make a lot of sense unless Hezbollah has given a
quiet message to its supporters to attack the UN whenever the UN strays off the
roads it usually uses.
This UN convoy was heading back at night from southern Lebanon, traveling the
main route from Tyre to Sidon. However, there is also a coastal road that
parallels the route and the vehicle exited by mistake into a village south of
Sidon. It was then attacked. Reports at the time say it might have been
followed.
Clearly the government of Ireland, the UN and others will want answers. However,
there is also an agenda to not rock the boat in Lebanon. The West wants to
maintain the illusion that the Lebanese army controls Lebanon. In addition, this
means continued US and other support for the Lebanese army. The fiction that the
state of Lebanon controls its territory is important because this means it can
sign deals, such as the maritime deal that it agreed with Israel before Israel’s
recent election. If one dispenses with that fiction then one has to realize
Lebanon is run by Hezbollah. Hezbollah has some 150,000 missiles and rockets, it
apparently has large numbers of drones, precision-guided munitions and air
defenses and anti-ship missiles. It has carried out assassinations before, such
as targeting former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafic Hariri in 2005. It carried out
an attack on Israel in 2006 that led to a war. It has sent forces to Syria. It
threatens Israel from areas in Syria near the Golan. It has also killed
political enemies and likely was behind the murder of publisher Lokman Slim.
The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on December 28-29/2022/
Pope Francis asks for prayers for former pontiff
Benedict/Head of the Roman Catholic Church describes his predecessor as 'very
sick'
The National/December 28/2022
Pope Francis on Wednesday asked for prayers for former pope Benedict, saying he
is "very sick".
The Pope made the surprise appeal at the end of his general audience, but
provided no further details. "I would like to ask all of you for a special
prayer for Pope Emeritus Benedict, who, in silence, is sustaining the Church,"
Pope Francis said, speaking in Italian.
"Let us remember him. He is very sick, asking the Lord to console and sustain
him in this witness of love for the Church, until the end."The Vatican confirmed
that the health of the former pontiff had worsened in the past few hours and
that he had been visited by Pope Francis. "I can confirm that in the last few
hours there has been a deterioration due to advancing age. The situation at the
moment remains under control, monitored continually by doctors," spokesman
Matteo Bruni said in a statement. In 2013, Benedict, 95, became the first pope
in about 600 years to resign. The German pope emeritus, whose real name is
Joseph Ratzinger, has been living in the Vatican since then. His resignation
created an unprecedented situation in which two "men in white" — Benedict and
his successor, Pope Francis — co-existed within the walls of the tiny city
state. In 2020, Maltese Cardinal Mario Grech said Benedict "has difficulty in
expressing himself". The former pope, who uses a wheelchair, said "the Lord has
taken away my speech in order to let me appreciate silence", Cardinal Grech told
Vatican News. In April, Benedict's long-time secretary, Archbishop Georg
Gaenswein, told Vatican News the former pope was "physically relatively weak and
fragile", but "in good spirits". Pope Benedict was 78 when he succeeded the
long-reigning and popular John Paul II in April 2005. His papacy was beset by
Church infighting and an outcry over a sex abuse scandal and international
investigation, which rocked Catholic churches throughout the globe. He became
the first pontiff to apologise for the abuse scandals, expressing "deep remorse"
and meeting with victims in person. But while he took key steps to tackling
child abuse by members of the clergy, he was criticised for failing to end
Church cover-ups. The scandal has returned to haunt him in retirement.
A damning report for the Catholic Church in Germany in January 2022 accused him
of personally failing to stop four predatory priests in the 1980s while
archbishop of Munich. Benedict has denied wrongdoing and the Vatican has
strongly defended his record. Unlike his successor, Pope Francis, a Jesuit who
delights in being among his flock, Benedict is considered a conservative
intellectual. He was described as "God's Rottweiler" in a previous post. But as
pontiff he appeared overwhelmed by the challenges facing a Church that was
losing influence and followers, and years of Vatican turmoil took their toll. He
stepped down in February 2013 in an announcement delivered to cardinals in
Latin, later saying the decision was the result of a mystical experience. Pope
Francis, 86, has said he may also resign at some point. He revealed for the
first time in an interview this month that he signed a resignation letter nearly
a decade ago should poor health prevent him from carrying out his duties.
Britain urges Iran to stop ‘unfairly detaining’ dual
nationals
Reuters/December 28, 2022
LONDON:Britain urged Iran on Wednesday to stop detaining dual nationals
following the arrest of seven people with links to the United Kingdom, saying
the practice should not be used to obtain “diplomatic leverage.”Iran’s
Revolutionary Guards arrested the seven people over anti-government protests as
they tried to leave the country on Sunday, according to a statement published by
state media. Some of the seven hold dual nationality. “We are urgently seeking
further information from the Iranian authorities on the reports of those
British-Iranian dual nationals,” British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s
spokesperson told reporters. “We’ve always said that we will never accept our
nationals... being used for diplomatic leverage and we urge the government of
Iran to stop its practice of unfairly detaining British and other foreign
nationals.” The reported arrests follow unrest triggered by the Sept. 16 death
in detention of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old Kurdish Iranian who was arrested for
wearing “inappropriate attire” under Iran’s strict Islamic dress code for women.
The protests have posed one of the biggest challenges to the Shiite Muslim-ruled
Islamic Republic since the 1979 revolution. Britain’s main opposition Labour
Party has asked for new sanctions on organizations and individuals who have been
involved in Iran’s crackdown on the protests. “The killings and repression being
carried out by the Iranian regime against courageous Iranian protesters seeking
a better future is appalling,” Labour’s foreign affairs spokesman David Lammy
said in a statement. “There must be an end to impunity.”Asked about the
potential for future sanctions on Iran, a British foreign ministry spokesperson
said it had already imposed human rights sanctions on more than 40 Iranian
officials and the entirety of the so-called “Morality Police.” “We will continue
to hold Iran to account for the shocking violence they have inflicted on their
own people,” the spokesperson said.
Turkiye, Syria, Russia defense ministers meet for first
talks since 2011
AFP/December 28, 2022
MOSCOW: The defense ministers of Russia, Turkiye and Syria met in Moscow on
Wednesday, the first such talks since a war broke out in Syria, the Russian
defense ministry said. It was also the first meeting between the defense
ministers of Turkiye and Syria since the start of the war in 2011. Russia and
Turkiye are both involved in Syria, with Moscow supporting the Damascus regime
against its opponents, and Ankara backing rebels. The meeting came as Turkish
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has repeatedly threatened to launch a military
offensive in northern Syria against Kurdish groups.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and his Turkish and Syrian counterparts,
Hulusi Akar and Ali Mahmoud Abbas, discussed “ways to resolve the Syrian crisis,
the problem of refugees, and joint efforts to combat extremist groups in Syria,”
said the Russian defense ministry.
It added that the meeting had been “constructive” with a need to “continue it in
the interests of further stabilising the situation” in Syria and the region. The
Turkish defense ministry struck a similar note, saying the meeting was held in a
“constructive atmosphere.”
“At the meeting, the Syrian crisis, the refugee problem and joint efforts to
combat all terrorist organizations in Syria were discussed,” the ministry said.
Syria’s state news agency SANA, quoting the defense ministry, said that the
Syrian spy chief was also present and the meeting was “positive.” The report
said that the Syrian defense minister and the head of the Syrian intelligence
service met with their Turkish counterparts in Moscow, with Russian officials
also taking part. On Saturday, Akar told reporters that Turkiye was in talks
with Russia about using Syrian airspace in a possible operation against the
Syrian Kurdish YPG militia. “We are holding discussions with the Russians about
the opening of the airspace” in Syria, he said. The Turkish and Syrian foreign
ministers had a brief informal exchange on the sidelines of a regional summit in
2021, and Ankara had acknowledged contacts between intelligence services of the
two countries. In November, Erdogan said a meeting with Syrian leader Bashar
Assad was a possibility, after cutting diplomatic ties with Damascus throughout
the 11-year conflict. In mid-December, he indicated that he could meet with
Assad after defense and foreign ministers from the two countries had met. “We
want to take a step as Syria, Turkiye and Russia,” he said at the time.
Saudi FM: We support international efforts to resolve
Ukraine crisis politically
Arab News/December 28, 2022
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan said on
Wednesday that the Kingdom continues to support international efforts aimed at
politically resolving the crisis in Ukraine. His comments came during a phone
call with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in which they discussed the
latest developments in the Ukraine crisis, the Kingdom’s foreign ministry said.
The two ministers also discussed bilateral relations and ways to develop them in
various fields. Prince Faisal also received a call from his Turkish counterpart
Mevlut Cavusoglu, and the two ministers “reviewed bilateral relations and ways
to enhance them to serve the aspirations” of their countries. They also
discussed the most important regional and international issues of common
interest, and aspects of intensifying joint efforts that would enhance
international peace and security.
Israel has improved readiness to attack Iran,
minister says
Bloomberg/28 December ,2022
Israel has improved its readiness to attack Iran, outgoing Defense Minister
Benny Gantz said on Wednesday as he cited preparations that the military is
making to hit nuclear sites. Speaking at an Air Force graduation ceremony, Gantz
said that pilots may one day be called upon to take part in such an offensive.
“You may cross the sky to the east in two or three years and take part in an
attack on nuclear sites in Iran, for which we are preparing, while significantly
increasing readiness in recent years, Gantz said. Israel is becoming
increasingly concerned that Russia’s growing dependence on Iran’s military
potential in Ukraine could prompt Tehran to seek Russian assistance for its
nuclear program in return. Israel rejects Iran’s assertions that the nuclear
program is for peaceful purposes, and has said that it will take any steps
necessary to prevent Iran from acquiring a bomb. A new Israeli government headed
by Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to be approved by parliament on Thursday after
winning elections last month. Gantz, a former Chief of General Staff of the
Israel Defense Forces, is likely to remain in parliament as a member of the
opposition. Israel destroyed an unfinished nuclear reactor in Syria in 2007.
Iraq under Saddam Hussein had a well-developed program until Israel, an
unacknowledged nuclear state, stifled his ambitions by destroying the Osirak
research reactor in an air raid in 1981.
Netanyahu names ex-general Yoav Galant as
defense minister
Agence France Presse/December 28, 2022
Israeli Prime Minister-designate Benjamin Netanyahu has named former general
Yoav Galant as defense minister in his upcoming cabinet, a spokesperson for his
Likud party said Wednesday. Galant, a member of the right-wing Likud, was given
the key portfolio a day before Netanyahu's cabinet is expected to be sworn in
before parliament. A former commander of the southern region of Israel, Galant
has also served in several ministerial posts in Netanyahu's previous cabinets.
Following his November 1 election win, veteran hawk Netanyahu secured a mandate
to form a government backed by ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties and an
extreme-right bloc. His incoming government has sparked fears of a military
escalation in the West Bank amid the worst violence in the Israeli-occupied
Palestinian territory for nearly 20 years.
Israeli vow to annex West Bank
Arab News/December 28, 2022
RAMALLAH: Benjamin Netanyahu’s new Israeli government pledged on Wednesday to
legalize dozens of illegally built settlements and annex the occupied West Bank.
The coalition agreement with the ultranationalist far-right, published a day
before the government is sworn into office, also included language endorsing
discrimination against people on religious grounds, contentious judicial
reforms, and generous stipends for ultra-Orthodox men who study instead of work.
The new government has vowed to expand and vastly increase government funding
for settlements in the West Bank city of Hebron, where a tiny ultranationalist
Jewish community lives in heavily fortified neighborhoods amid tens of thousands
of Palestinians. “What worries me the most is that these agreements change the
democratic structure of … the state of Israel,” said Tomer Naor, chief legal
officer of the Movement for Quality Government in Israel, a watchdog group. “One
day we’ll all wake up and Netanyahu won’t be prime minister, but some of these
changes will be irreversible.” The US has already warned the incoming government
against actions that undermine hopes for an independent Palestinian state.
Palestinian experts told Arab News that the composition and policy of the new
Israeli government was “an existential threat“ to them as a people and to their
dreams of a free homeland. “The new right-wing Israeli government must realize
that without complying with the resolutions of international legitimacy, nothing
will be achieved and there will not be any settlement left on the lands of the
independent state of Palestine,” said Palestinian presidential spokesman Nabil
Abu Rudeineh. Without an independent Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as
its capital the region would have no security or stability, he said, and he
urged the US administration to turn its words into actions. Lt. Gen. Jibril
Rajoub, secretary of the Fatah Central Committee, told Arab News: “The laws
enacted and recently passed by extremists in the Knesset to facilitate the work
of the new extremist Israeli government are a clone of the Nuremberg race laws
that were enacted in 1935 by the Germans to persecute the Jews and today are
enacted by the Israeli extremists to persecute the Palestinians,”Ismail Haniyeh,
head of the political bureau of Hamas, said the priority of the Palestinian
people was to counter the policies of the new Israeli government in resistance
and unity. “The settlements will be confronted by escalating the resistance,
expanding its area, and applying pressure by all means available to uproot the
settlers and the occupying entity from all the land of Palestine,” he said.
Ahmed Deek, an adviser to the Palestinian Minister of Foreign Affairs, told Arab
News: “We call on the US administration to put pressure on the Israeli
government not to implement these agreements related to the Palestinians. This
government is racing against time to annex the lands of the West Bank and to
perpetuate the occupation and the apartheid regime.”Deek said the Palestinian
Authority was coordinating with Jordan and other Arab countries to confront the
policies of the new Israeli government.
Putin bans Russian oil exports to countries
that imposed price cap: Decree
Reuters/28 December ,2022
President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday delivered Russia's long-awaited response to
a Western price cap, signing a decree that bans the supply of oil and oil
products to nations participating in the cap from Feb. 1 for five months. The
Group of Seven major powers, the European Union and Australia agreed this month
to a $60-per-barrel price cap on Russian seaborne crude oil effective from Dec.
5 over Moscow's “special military operation” in Ukraine. The Kremlin's decree
stated: “This...comes into force on Feb. 1, 2023, and applies until July 1,
2023.”Crude oil exports will be banned from Feb 1, but the date for the oil
products ban will be determined by the Russian government and could be after
Feb. 1. The decree includes a clause that allows for Putin to overrule the ban
in special cases.
Ukraine has freed more than 1,450 POWs since Russia
invaded: Zelenskyy
Reuters, Kyiv/28 December ,2022
Ukraine has secured the release of 1,456 prisoners of war since Russia invaded
on February 24, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told parliament in an annual
address held behind closed doors on Wednesday. Kyiv and Moscow have held a
series of prisoner swaps throughout the war which is now in its eleventh month.
Zelenskyy has said the release of prisoners of war is a priority. Russia is
thought to hold thousands of Ukrainian prisoners of war, but the exact figures
are not known.
Explainer: What is Zelenskyy’s 10-point peace
plan?
Reuters/28 December ,2022
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been vigorously promoting his
10-point peace plan, discussing it with US President Joe Biden among others, and
urging world leaders to hold a Global Peace Summit based on it.
Here is an explainer on the plan and world reactions:
What is Zelenskyy’s 10-point peace plan?
Zelenskyy first announced his peace formula at a November summit of the Group of
20 major economies.
The plan calls for:
1. Radiation and nuclear safety, focusing on restoring safety around Europe’s
largest nuclear power plant, Zaporizhzhia in Ukraine, which is now-Russian
occupied.
2. Food security, including protecting and ensuring Ukraine’s grain exports to
the world’s poorest nations.
3. Energy security, with focus on price restrictions on Russian energy
resources, as well as aiding Ukraine with restoring its power infrastructure,
half of which has been damaged by Russian attacks.
4. Release of all prisoners and deportees, including war prisoners and children
deported to Russia.
5. Restoring Ukraine’s territorial integrity and Russia reaffirming it according
to the UN Charter, which Zelenskyy said is “not up to negotiations.”
6. Withdrawal of Russian troops and cessation of hostilities, restoration of
Ukraine’s state borders with Russia.
7. Justice, including the establishment of a special tribunal to prosecute
Russian war crimes.
8. Prevention of ecocide, need for protection of environment, with focus on
demining and restoring water treatment facilities.
9. Prevention of escalation of conflict, and building security architecture in
the Euro-Atlantic space, including guarantees for Ukraine.
10. Confirmation of the war’s end, including a document signed by the involved
parties. What is Zelenskyy’s global peace summit proposal?
In December, Zelenskyy urged the leaders of the Group of Seven nations to
support his Global Peace Summit idea in winter that would focus on the peace
plan “as a whole or some specific points in particular.”
What has been the world’s response?
Russia rejected Zelenskyy’s peace proposal this month and Moscow reiterated on
Tuesday that it would not give up any territory it has taken by force, around a
fifth of Ukraine, which it says it has annexed.
Zelenskyy has been on a diplomatic flurry presenting his plan to leaders
including Biden, French President Emmanuel Macron and India’s Prime Minister
Narendra Modi, whose country has assumed the G20 presidency. The Western world’s
support for Ukraine’s military has run into billions of dollars, led by
Washington, and nations have rushed to help Kyiv with demining and fixing power
infrastructure.
But the response to Zelenskyy’s peace plan and his proposed peace summit has
been more cautious. During Zelenskyy’s visit to Washington on December 22, Biden
said in public remarks only that he and Zelenskyy “share the exact same vision”
for peace and that the United States is committed to ensure that Ukraine can
defend itself.
Modi, whose government has not explicitly condemned Russia’s invasion of
Ukraine, said after Zelenskyy’s presentation of the plan he “strongly
reiterated” his call for an immediate end to hostilities and conveyed India’s
support for any peace efforts. The G7 leaders said they were committed to
bringing peace to Ukraine “in line with its rights enshrined in the UN
Charter.”UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres said that chances for any peace
talks are small any time soon.
“I do believe that the military confrontation will go on, and I think we’ll have
still to wait for a moment in which serious negotiations for peace will be
possible,” he said in late December.
Chief of Russia's Gazprom admits 'difficult'
year
Agence France Presse/December 28, 2022
The head of Gazprom said Wednesday the Russian gas giant had a challenging year,
as the company seeks new markets following international sanctions over Moscow's
Ukraine offensive. "I want to say right away that 2022, of course, has turned
out to be very, very difficult," Alexei Miller said during an end-of-year
conference as tensions soar between Russia and the West. Miller noted a "total
change in the energy markets" driven by the consequences of Western sanctions on
Moscow in response to President Vladimir Putin's decision to send troops to
Ukraine. He insisted, however, that Gazprom continues to operate in a "very
well-coordinated" manner. In 2021, Russia was the largest gas supplier for the
27 countries of the European Union. After the start of the Ukraine conflict, the
bloc drastically reduced its imports of Russian natural gas as it seeks to cut
its reliance on Moscow's energy. Gazprom accounts for 11 percent of the global
natural gas production and has the largest gas reserves in the world. The loss
of its currents buyers has led Russia to seek alternative markets, particularly
in Asia. Miller also welcomed last week's launch of the Kovykta gas field in
Siberia, which would significantly raise exports to China. "The Power of Siberia
gas pipeline is now in operation throughout its entire length, more than 3,000
kilometres," Miller said.
Kosovo shuts main border crossing with Serbia
Agence France Presse/December 28, 2022
Kosovo closed its biggest border crossing with Serbia, police said Wednesday,
after Serbs set up more barricades on their side in one of the worst regional
crises in years. Kosovo declared independence from Serbia in 2008, but Belgrade
has refused to recognise it and encouraged Kosovo's 120,000 ethnic Serbs to defy
Pristina's authority -- especially in the north where ethnic Serbs make up the
majority. The latest trouble erupted on December 10, when ethnic Serbs put up
barricades to protest the arrest of an ex-policeman suspected of being involved
in attacks against ethnic Albanian police officers -- effectively sealing off
traffic on two border crossings. After the roadblocks were erected, Kosovar
police and international peacekeepers were attacked in several shooting
incidents, while the Serbian armed forces were put on heightened alert this
week. Late Tuesday, dozens of demonstrators on the Serbian side of the border
used trucks and tractors to halt traffic leading to Merdare, the biggest
crossing between the neighbors -- a move which forced Kosovo police to close the
entry point on Wednesday. "Such an illegal blockade has prevented the free
movement and circulation of people and goods, therefore we invite our citizens
and compatriots to use other border points for circulation," Kosovo police said
in a statement. Pristina also asked NATO-led peacekeepers to clear the
barricades that were erected on Kosovo soil. Serbian Defense Minister Milos
Vucevic on Wednesday said Belgrade was "ready for a deal," but did not specify
other details. Vucevic described the roadblocks as a "democratic and peaceful"
means of protest and added that Belgrade has "an open line of communication"
with Western diplomats on resolving the issue. "We are all worried about the
situation and where all this is going... Serbia is ready for a deal," Vucevic
told state-controlled public broadcaster RTS. Northern Kosovo has been on edge
since November when hundreds of ethnic Serb workers in the Kosovo police as well
as the judicial branch, including judges and prosecutors, walked off the job.
They were protesting a controversial decision to ban Serbs living in Kosovo from
using Belgrade-issued vehicle licence plates -- a policy that was eventually
scrapped by Pristina. The mass walkouts created a security vacuum in Kosovo,
which Pristina tried to fill by deploying ethnic Albanian police officers in the
region. The EU and several international ambassadors this week condemned four
recent attacks against journalists who were covering the flare-up.
Tunisian prosecutors move to try 13 judges on 'terror'
charges
Agence France Presse/December 28, 2022
Tunisian prosecutors asked the top judicial body to strip 13 judges of immunity
so they can be tried on terror charges, their lawyer said Wednesday, describing
the case as "purely political". The move comes nearly seven months after
President Kais Saied sacked 57 judges, accusing them of corruption and blocking
enquiries into two left-wing political figures in 2013, among other purported
transgressions. Defence lawyer Ayachi Hammami said the 13 were among 49 judges
reinstated in August. But the justice ministry has been investigating his 13
clients for "terrorist crimes mentioned in security reports," he added. "This
case is purely political," Hammami said. The accused judges are to appear before
the Supreme Judicial Council (CSM) on January 24, he told AFP. Saied staged a
dramatic power grab in July 2021, sacking the government, suspending parliament
and rocking the foundations of the only democracy to have emerged from the Arab
Spring uprisings. In February he dissolved a previous top judicial body,
replacing it with the CSM whose members the president picks -- and can sack
without appeal. In June he issued a decree tightening his control over the CSM,
a day before he suspended the 57 judges. Rights groups Human Rights Watch and
Amnesty International had slammed the suspensions as "a direct attack on the
rule of law", and Tunisian lawyers went on strike for a month in response.
Fears of extremist campaign after attack on US power
substations
Agence France Presse/December 28, 2022
Investigators probing vandalism at electricity substations in the western U.S.
state of Washington have appealed for public help in tracking down those
responsible for attacks that have fueled concerns of a right-wing extremist
campaign. Local police gave no information on who they suspected was behind the
vandalism, which knocked out power on Christmas Day for some 14,000 in Tacoma, a
port city area south of Seattle. Tacoma Public Utilities, which owns two of the
facilities targeted on Sunday, said in a statement that it was alerted by
federal law enforcement in early December about threats to its grid. The Pierce
County Sheriff's office appealed Tuesday for those near damaged substations to
look at "surveillance video at your home or business... and let us know if you
find anything that could help our detectives identify the suspect(s)
responsible."On the day of the attacks, the office said it was investigating but
had made no arrests and did not know if it was a coordinated attack. "It could
be any number of reasons at this point... We have to investigate and not just
jump to conclusions," it said, adding that it was aware of similar incidents in
Washington, Oregon and North Carolina.
The vandalism follows warnings by U.S. officials that neo-Nazis who say they
want to spark a race war are targeting electricity infrastructure. Violent
extremists "have developed credible, specific plans to attack electricity
infrastructure since at least 2020, identifying the electric grid as a
particularly attractive target given its interdependency with other
infrastructure sectors," the Department of Homeland Security said in a January
intelligence memo, according to US media. In early December, 45,000 homes and
businesses in Moore County, North Carolina were left without power after someone
used a high-powered rifle to damage two electricity substations. In February,
three men with neo-Nazi ties pleaded guilty in Columbus, Ohio to plotting to use
rifles and explosives to damage power infrastructure in various locations. They
pursued "a disturbing plot, in furtherance of white supremacist ideology, to
attack energy facilities in order to damage the economy and stoke division in
our country," Assistant Attorney General Matthew Olsen said at the time. And
last year, five men who allegedly belonged to white supremacist and neo-Nazi
online discussion groups were charged in North Carolina with planning attacks on
power infrastructure.
They planned the attack to create "general chaos" as part of their "goal of
creating a white ethno-state," the indictment said. Jon Wellinghoff, the former
chairman of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, said on CNN in early
December that the Moore County attack resembled one on an electricity network
substation near San Jose, California in 2013. In that case, which has never been
solved, one or more people fired close to 100 rounds at the substation, damaging
17 high-voltage transformers at a cost of $15 million. The Washington Post said
after the Moore County case that law enforcement was investigating eight
incidents in four states.
The Latest LCCC English analysis &
editorials from miscellaneous sources published
on December 28-29/2022/
Taliban’s misogyny has dire consequences
Dr. Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg/Arab News/December 28, 2022
The UN Security Council on Tuesday denounced the Taliban’s ban on women
attending universities or working for humanitarian aid groups. It called for
“full, equal and meaningful” participation of women and girls in Afghanistan.
The council said that barring women and girls from higher education in the
country “represents an increasing erosion of respect for human rights and
fundamental freedoms.” The ban on women aid workers also will have a
“significant and immediate impact for humanitarian operations in the country,”
the statement said. The Security Council statement represents a rare
international consensus, including by its five permanent members.
Following the announcement by the Taliban’s Ministry of Economy last Saturday,
an increasing number of major nongovernmental aid groups have suspended or
curtailed operations in Afghanistan, at least temporarily, because many of their
key staff, especially those who deal directly with Afghan families, are women.
The UK-based Save the Children, the Norwegian Refugee Council, Geneva-based Care
International, and the US-based International Rescue Committee said on Sunday
that assistance programs will be suspended while they seek greater clarity on
the announcement.
The Norwegian Refugee Council employs about 1,500 staff in Afghanistan,
including 500 women. More than 3,000 of the International Rescue Committee’s
staff in the country are women.
The Birmingham-based Islamic Relief Worldwide also said that it would suspend
non-lifesaving operations.
Without NGOs, the burden falls on UN agencies to provide critically needed
assistance, but the halt to women’s participation in humanitarian work is likely
to affect their work as well, including that of the main UN mission UNAMA.
The Taliban seized power in August 2021, promising to allow women and girls to
continue to receive education and participate in the labor force. Many in
Afghanistan and in the international community hoped that they would live up to
those commitments and not revert to the anti-women policies on display when they
ruled Afghanistan previously from 1996-2001.
Since taking control, the Taliban have reassured the Afghan people, and their
regional and international interlocutors, including the UN, the Organization of
Islamic Cooperation, and the Gulf Cooperation Council, that they had no
intention of going back to the restrictive policies of the 1990s, or to ban
women’s work or education.
However, in recent months, those promises have been proven false, and the
Taliban have gradually reversed the gains made by Afghan women over the past two
decades. In the process, these anti-women policies have resulted in clear human
rights violations. But the Taliban are also jeopardizing the economic future of
the country by denying education and work to half of its population. Most
immediately, their actions are making a serious humanitarian situation worse by
barring women from aid work and, thus, paralyzing international relief efforts.
In their arcane and convoluted recent justifications of the new restrictions,
Taliban leaders have tried to give the draconian measures an Islamic patina, but
Muslim countries and organizations around the world quickly shot down their
false arguments.
The Senior Scholars Council, Saudi Arabia’s top religious authority, issued a
statement on Dec. 24 admonishing the Taliban and calling on them to rescind the
ban, saying that access to education is one of women’s fundamental rights in
Islam.
The head of Al-Azhar, the Cairo-based top religious authority in the Muslim
world, issued a similar statement the previous day, denouncing the Taliban move,
and warning against “believing or accepting the allegation that banning women’s
education is approved in Islam.” It described Taliban claims as a “fabrication.”
Saudi Arabia and most other major Muslim countries have also acted in unison,
making it clear that the Taliban’s antics are the products of misogyny and male
chauvinism, and have little to do with Islamic teachings or traditions.
The Taliban are almost alone in the brazenness of their misogynistic policies;
others try to hide or sugarcoat them. Two countries now stand out in their
mistreatment of women — Iran and Taliban-controlled Afghanistan. The first is
cracking down on female-led protests which are demanding an end to archaic
restrictions on female dress and public conduct, while the latter is introducing
increasingly harsh restrictions on women’s movement, education and work. Both
countries are using extreme measures to enforce their policies. Iran is
executing protesters and imposing collective punishment on communities,
including the Kurds in the northwest and Balochis in the south. In an incident
on Monday, Iranian authorities ordered a Dubai-bound flight to land and forced
off the family of former Iranian footballer Ali Daei, who is believed to support
protests in the country.
The Taliban appear to be thumbing their noses at their detractors. In fact, the
university ban on women was announced as the Security Council met last week in
New York to discuss Afghanistan.
Almost all outside powers, including Afghanistan’s neighbors, have refrained
from conferring political recognition on the Taliban’s rule, making it clear
that any acknowledgement depends on the group’s conduct, especially regarding
women, forming an inclusive government and combating terrorism. Some countries,
including Russia and China, have maintained significant economic dealings with
the Taliban. Other states and organizations have held hopes that the group would
moderate its views in time. But the recent reversals are making it difficult to
maintain those hopes.
The dilemma the world faces is how to help the Afghan people, while making sure
that the Taliban get the message denouncing their harsh restrictions on women.
The group is effectively holding Afghanistan’s population of almost 40 million
people hostage. UN aid officials told the UN Security Council last week that 97
percent of Afghans live in poverty, two-thirds of the population need aid to
survive, and 20 million people face acute hunger.
Withdrawal or reduction of humanitarian assistance due to the ban on women’s
work in that area threatens the lives of those in need in Afghanistan. The
resistance to Taliban rule can only thrive and grow with these latest draconian
measures. The country’s stability, unity, social cohesion and economic health
are all at stake.
Friends of Afghanistan need to coordinate their efforts on how to address this
dilemma. A meeting organized by the GCC for early January is certain to focus on
how these new measures affect the delivery of aid to those in need in the
country.
*Dr. Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg is the GCC assistant secretary-general for political
affairs and negotiation, and a columnist for Arab News. The views expressed in
this piece are personal and do not necessarily represent GCC views. Twitter:
@abuhamad1
Deepening Russia-Iran Relationship Should Worry Israel
Nadav Pollak/The Washington Institute./December 28/2022
The Kremlin will have many ways to thank Iran for supporting its war against
Ukraine.
In the past few weeks, officials in both the United States and Britain have
observed deepening military ties between Russia and Iran. On December 16, CIA
director William J. Burns explained the situation this way in an interview with
PBS NewsHour: “What’s beginning to emerge is at least the beginnings of a
full-fledged defense partnership between Russia and Iran, with the Iranians
supplying drones to the Russians, which are killing Ukrainian civilians as we
speak today, and the Russians beginning to look at ways in which,
technologically or technically, they can support the Iranians.” Burns went on to
say that this development “poses real threats to Iran’s own neighborhood, to
many of our friends and partners in Iran’s neighborhood as well.”
The CIA director’s assessment is accurate, and the development presents a threat
specifically to Israel. Russia’s sudden reliance on Iran for military aid will
soon prompt a repayment of the debt, and Israeli decisionmakers must be
attentive and prepared. To be sure, Russia will be able to reciprocate in
numerous ways that can augment Iran’s military capabilities.
A Changing Bilateral Rapport
Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February, Iran has been one of the Kremlin’s
most steadfast supporters. The regime in Tehran has provided hundreds of drones,
perhaps more, to Russia’s military and has sent its own trainers to Crimea to
help the Russian military make good use of these weapons. Recent reports also
indicate that Iran is planning to provide Russia with advanced short-range
ballistic missiles and helping Russia establish its own production line of
Iranian drones. So far, Russian forces have used these weapons widely but with
limited success—although enough success to occupy Ukraine’s air defenses and
inflict significant damage on civilian targets. Communication between Russian
and Iranian leaders suggests President Vladimir Putin and his generals very much
appreciate Iran’s steady flow of military aid.
Today’s enhanced relationship nevertheless must be qualified. The two countries
have maintained a relationship for years, encompassing the military and economic
fields, and they have recently cooperated against common enemies in the Syrian
war—although their interests are not fully aligned there. Both countries also
have long sought to limit the U.S. role on the world stage and, in turn, empower
each in its respective sphere. But Russian and Iranian interests also diverge.
Russia maintains close relationships with some of Iran’s enemies, especially
Israel and Saudi Arabia, and the countries compete for energy market share,
especially now given Russia’s increasing reliance on Asian oil buyers.
What has changed in recent months is Russia’s elevated perception of Iran in
light of the boost Tehran has given to Moscow’s bombing campaign. This raises
the likelihood of generous compensation later on. In particular, recent reports
indicate that Russia has already trained Iranian pilots to operate advanced
Russian aircraft and might provide Iran with helicopters and air-defense
systems.
Moscow’s Possible “Gifts” to Tehran
Russia can improve Iranian military hardware capabilities significantly, mainly
through the provision of air-defense systems, which would honor a longtime
Iranian request. Russia has rejected past such inquiries, fearing the
relationship problems that agreeing would create with other countries, including
Israel, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Turkey. But the likelihood
of an affirmative Russian response has now risen.
Should Iran obtain advanced air-defense systems from Russia, the Tehran regime
will be better equipped to thwart any future possible attack on its nuclear
infrastructure or other strategic facilities. Add the possibility of acquiring
advanced aircraft such as the Sukhoi Su-35, and the challenge of executing an
aerial attack against Iran while minimizing losses becomes yet a bigger headache
for military planners.
Russia can also provide Iran with weapons originating outside its borders. In
the past year, it has already delivered to Iran Western weapons seized in the
Ukraine fight. Thereafter, the Islamic Republic can reverse-engineer these
weapons to achieve two objectives: learning how to better defend against the
weapons; and learning how to design and produce their own versions. Iran has
already shown much innovation in reverse-engineering Western weapons and
proliferating them across the region. Examples include antiaircraft systems
designed partially based on U.S.-made surface-to-air-missile systems, which were
shipped to the Houthis in Yemen, and—judging from Iranian statements—drones
designed from a captured U.S. drone.
Yet a focus on military hardware can obscure other threats to the balance of
power between Israel and Iran, first among them intelligence. Here, Russia
enjoys advanced capabilities in both imagery and signals intelligence and could
furnish such capabilities to Iran, or share sensitive intelligence that could
help Iran better defend itself. Imagine here a scenario in which Russia obtains
intelligence on Israel’s future war plans, or on covert Israeli operations in
the Middle East. Whereas Russia might previously have hesitated to share such
information, it may now be more forthcoming, considering the risks to its own
people Iran has assumed by arming Russia.
Cyber constitutes another area of concern. Iran already has advanced cyber
capabilities, and it has shown a willingness to use them against foreign
governments, as demonstrated in the cyberattack targeting Albania in summer
2022. Russia, a cyber superpower, can teach Iranian hackers plenty about
conducting more sophisticated attacks against sensitive targets. Russia might
even share with Iran crucial vulnerabilities that could help it execute
cyberattacks aimed at gathering intelligence or destroying computerized systems.
Some Israeli analysts have argued that Iran’s working relationship with Russia,
and specifically incoming prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s connection with
Vladimir Putin, can alleviate these concerns. This argument holds that Russia
will not take any steps to dramatically alter the Israel-Iran balance of power,
for fear that this would harm Russia’s relationship with Israel or push Israel
to provide Ukraine with air-defense systems. But this argument fails to
understand the fundamental change in Russia-Iran relations—namely, Tehran’s
rising status in Moscow—a change that will hold if the Ukraine war drags on and
Russia needs more Iranian drones and ballistic missiles.
Israeli Steps to Minimize Risk
To bolster its security prospects amid strengthening Russia-Iran ties, Jerusalem
should first communicate its redlines to Moscow, making clear that any breach of
them will do immense harm to the relationship and might change Israel’s
calculations about providing Ukraine with air-defense systems. Still, even in
the very unlikely event that Russia respects Israeli redlines, it can covertly
augment Iran’s cyber capabilities or provide sensitive intelligence to the
regime. Needless to say, the Israel-Russia relationship is not one of equals,
and the Russian military especially has long been pushing to diminish it. Yet
imparting these redlines will clarify the Israeli position and might push the
Kremlin to deliver more limited compensation to Iran.
Second, Israel should exploit the current spotlight on Russia-Iran relations to
push for more American and European actions aimed at hindering or limiting
cooperation between the two states. This could take the form of a new
U.S.-Europe-Israel working group rooted in shared concerns about the
relationship. Such a group could craft more targeted sanctions, expose
additional intelligence on the depth of the relationship—as the United States
has already done to some extent—and devise other solutions.
Third, Israel should simultaneously communicate with its regional
partners—namely the UAE, which appears to have a direct line to Putin and is
likewise threatened by the Russia-Iran upgrade—to pressure the Russian president
to limit aid to Iran.
The bottom line is this: not far into the future, Iran will receive something in
return for its indispensable military generosity toward Iran, and Russia will
have many ways to return the favor that could impede Israel’s security. When the
day comes, Israel will have limited means to respond to this new regional
reality, so it must be prepared to the greatest extent possible.
*Nadav Pollak is a lecturer at Israel’s Reichman University and a former Diane
and Guilford Glazer Foundation Fellow at The Washington Institute.
A Stabilizing Factor: Oman’s Quiet Influence
amid Mounting Uncertainty in the Gulf
Leonardo Jacopo Maria Mazzucco/The Washington Institute/December 28/2022
Based on its sound reputation as a conflict mediator and talks facilitator, Oman
is well-positioned to tone down flaring rivalries in the Gulf and prevent
tensions from spiraling out of control.
After a timid thawing of tensions, the Gulf region is witnessing a renewed phase
of uncertainty. Despite being a skillful master at navigating turbulent waters,
Oman is eyeing the revamping of tensions in its immediate neighborhood with
growing apprehension. The failed attempts to review the Joint Comprehensive Plan
of Action (JCPOA), the revamping of Iran’s outward-looking incendiary rhetoric
as well as localized military retaliations amid recent mass protests, and the
failure to extend the U.N.-brokered ceasefire in Yemen do not bode well for the
region’s precarious stability. Muscat has a vested interest in preventing at-sea
incidents from escalating and harsh infighting among rival Yemeni factions from
reaching alarming proportions, especially given its coasts looking out on the
Strait of Hormuz and much of its southwestern frontier bordering Yemen.
Undoubtedly, diplomatic ties among the Gulf countries are in better shape than
they were a couple of years ago. On the one hand, the Al Ula Agreement formally
ended the intra-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) spat and brought Qatar back into
the Arab fold. The Arab Gulf monarchies have also made steady headways in
clearing the air with Iran—the on-again off-again Saudi-Iranian bilateral talks
have found in Baghdad a safe venue to defuse tensions, and the UAE and Kuwait
have recently returned their ambassadors to Iran after a six-year spat. However,
should the continued lack of a nuclear agreement and the failure to revive a
truce in Yemen become the long-term trajectory for the Gulf, the shaky and
hard-earned progress achieved during the past years may prove short-lived. In
response, Oman has ramped up its diplomatic activism. Nevertheless, Muscat’s
de-escalation endeavors may not be enough to defuse the current geopolitical
frictions.
The Tenets of Oman’s Foreign Policy
Oman is no stranger to navigating highly polarizing conflicts in the Gulf
region. Despite heavy targeting by external pressures to alter its foreign
policy positioning, Oman has consistently resisted external influences and
scrupulously safeguarded its independent decision-making. Positioned on the
front line of the deep-rooted rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran, Oman is not
new to seeing its backyard turned into a battleground where the leadership
ambitions of these two regional powerhouses clash. Nevertheless, Muscat has
sought to use a heightened insecure environment to its advantage by leveraging
its role as a buffer zone state in order to conduct an independent foreign
policy. Historically, Oman has adamantly sought to avoid being dragged into
political-military rifts that did not represent a direct, immediate threat to
its national security interests.
Indeed, Oman's two-pronged approach to foreign policy—based on preserving
cordial diplomatic ties with rivaling factions and championing negotiation as
the favored conflict-resolution mechanism—has traditionally been held up as the
most effective way to uphold its strategic priorities. These efforts have
moreover earned Oman the much-deserved title of “Switzerland of Arabia,” while
markedly boosting its credentials as a genuine stabilizing force in the eyes of
regional and global actors. However, Oman’s aversion to picking sides should not
be misunderstood as a lack of political decisiveness. Quite the contrary, it
requires a great dose of strength to remain above the fray when push comes to
shove.
Wedged in the southeastern corner of the Arabian Peninsula, Muscat must balance
a mix of inescapable geographic factors and multi-faceted political ties when
shaping its foreign policy compass. As a founding member of the GCC, Oman is
part of the club when it comes to Arab Gulf monarchies. Unlike many other,
however, it simultaneously enjoys bullet-proof diplomatic relations with Iran.
Due to the geographic proximity between the two countries, Muscat-Tehran ties
date back centuries, with positive interactions flourishing in political,
economic, and cultural spheres. These joint custodians of the Strait of Hormuz
have also gradually developed a sense of shared responsibility in managing
common security concerns arising from this strategic waterway.
The Ripple Effects of Iran’s Security Anxiety
After approaching alarming thresholds between May and September 2019, the Gulf
of Oman timidly embarked on a path of gradual de-escalation. While sporadic
harassment episodes—such as the seizure of commercial vessels by Iranian forces
and drone attacks on oil tankers—continued to spoil the security of these sea
trade corridors from time to time, precarious stability seemed to hold.
However, these maritime conditions have quickly deteriorated in the past few
weeks. On November 15, the Pacific Zircon vessel—a Liberian-flagged oil tanker
operated by an Israeli-controlled shipping company (Eastern Pacific
Shipping)—was hit by a drone in the Gulf of Oman. U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM)
highlighted how Iranian fingerprints were all over the attack, with the Shahed-series
suicide drone as the main suspect of the raid.
A few days later, a commercial ship navigating in the same area reported an
unsafe approach by a drone to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO),
a U.K. Royal Navy-linked platform for information-sharing between the military
and shipping industry stakeholders. Neither the ship nor the crew were harmed,
but the latest episode emphasizes how quickly tensions could escalate and how
precarious security conditions are in the maritime space between the Strait of
Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman. With almost 2,000 miles of coastline facing these
turbulent waters and a mounting desire to expand its blue economy, the
resumption of at-sea harassment has set off alarm bells in Muscat.
While numerous factors underpin the current belligerent posture of Iran, the
heightening of tensions offshore might can be viewed as a side-effect of growing
domestic turmoil in Iran. On the one hand, months-long popular protests have
markedly increased the leadership’s security anxiety, resulting in an
intensification of cross-border military operations. These protests, along with
an increasingly dwindling potential for a breakthrough in the nuclear talks and
controversial images of Iranian-made drones operated by Russian forces targeting
Ukrainian civilian infrastructures, have significantly widened the gap between
Iran and Western countries.
Deeply committed to a dialogue-based approach to conflict management, Oman has
quickly stepped in to engage in an intense “telephone diplomacy” exercise with
Iran to defuse further incidents at sea. Ultimately, Omani efforts to turn down
the heat of maritime tensions reached a peak with the trip of Oman’s Foreign
Minister, H.E. Sayyid Badr Al-Busaidi, to Tehran on November 19. During the
state visit, the top Omani diplomat discussed with his Iranian counterpart
Hossein Amir-Abdollahian and Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi joint solutions to
promote security for commercial vessels transiting through the Gulf of Oman.
While it remains to be seen whether Muscat’s latest moves will bring about a
return of relative maritime stability in the region, the country’s successful
track record in favoring cooperative interactions between rivaling parties even
when formal diplomatic channels hit rock bottom is reassuring. More recently,
Oman has played a decisive role in negotiating some prisoner swaps. On October
2, a joint Omani-Iraqi mediation endeavor resulted in the release of an Iranian
citizen arrested by Saudi authorities in mid-Summer 2022. A few days later, on
October 5, Oman contributed to the release of Baquer Namazi, an Iranian-American
jailed in 2016 by the Iranians on charges of conducting espionage activities for
the U.S. government.
Being the partner of choice for conducting hostage diplomacy benefits Oman as it
helps Muscat cement its diplomatic credentials as a reliable, genuine mediator
in the eyes of its American and Iranian friends. However, Oman has only limited
agency to uphold its primacy in this niche diplomacy. On the one hand, engaging
in prisoner exchanges remains a highly volatile affair that largely depends on
the counterparties’ will to make concessions. On the other hand, the successful
Emirati-Saudi intermediation between Washington and Moscow for releasing the
U.S. basketball player Brittney Griner has highlighted that alternative conduits
for behind-the-scenes negotiations are gradually taking shape in the Gulf.
Back to square one in Yemen
With the “Ramadan ceasefire” hammered out in April 2022 no longer active,
Yemen’s Houthis may be eager to return to efforts to gain control over the
energy-rich province of Marib. The massive display of uniformed troops,
ballistic missiles, drones, and naval assets during the Houthi military parades
in Hodeida and Sanaa last September rang hollow on hopes for a fourth truce
extension to the truce, and with efforts to further expand the UN-brokered
ceasefire running aground in early October 2022, it was only a matter of time
before tensions returned to the surface.
As such, observers look to Marib as the sight of the Houthi’s most recent major
offensive. Prior to the UN-brokered truce, the Houthis launched a months-long
attack, although failing to obtain significant military victory as the battle
ultimately ran aground in the outskirts of the city of Marib. During the
six-month-long truce, the Iran-backed insurgent group has had enough time to
gather further support from its strongholds, reorganize its troops, and solidify
its grip on fortified forward positions. The Houthis might perceive that current
conditions on the ground are tilting in their favor, and time now ripe for a new
assault on Yemen’s energy heartland.
Meanwhile, armed clashes erupted in late October with a series of Houthi air
raids launched against critical logistics and energy infrastructures in the
Shabwa and Hadramout governorates. Houthi drones targeted the Nushayma and Al-Dabba
oil terminals, preventing a couple of tankers from loading their cargo of crude
oil. As an intensification of drone strikes has mirrored the Houthi mounting
threats to paralyze shipping traffic in the waters south off the Arabian
Peninsula, Muscat eyes with growing concern the revamping of armed clashes in
its close neighbor.
Since 2015, Oman has tirelessly engaged in active tension-easing diplomacy in an
attempt to bring Yemen’s downward spiral to an end. As a GCC member state with
solid relations with both the United States and Iran, Oman was well-positioned
to play the challenging role of putting together mediated talks among different
warring factions. On the other hand, Oman’s marginal leverage over rival actors
and the latter’s reluctance to make meaningful compromises have repeatedly
hindered Muscat’s efforts to promote a durable political solution to Yemen’s
painful troubles.
With the Houthis ramping up their military offensive and torpedoing the window
of opportunity opened by the Ramadan ceasefire, hopes to achieve a long-lasting
political solution have suffered a major setback. However, although the road to
a negotiated settlement remains littered with major obstacles, Oman continues to
stand out as the most favorite regional candidate for promoting a positive
environment conducive to de-escalation talks. Muscat will likely need to step in
once more to establish informal communication channels among warring parties
alive and try to smooth their harder edges, while building some ground consensus
for future negotiations.
Future prospects
Muscat’s inclination for a low-profile, mild-tone style when conducting its
foreign policy should not be misunderstood for the country’s disinterest in
geopolitical affairs. On the contrary, Oman is a keen observer of developments
in its immediate neighborhood and an active player in the regional power
game—especially in two key regional conflicts likely to heat up in 2023.
Traditionally, Oman has counterbalanced the lack of security in the Gulf region
by developing its role as a geopolitical balancing force. To uphold its role as
a neutral middle-ground power, Oman has been careful not to overplay its
mediator status and avoided being perceived as an antagonizing player.
Nevertheless, Omani pro-neutrality efforts have occasionally raised eyebrows of
some Gulf capitals, which looked at them as an act of soft defiance and passive
contestation. Muscat’s cautious approach to thorny geopolitical issues has
translated into Oman crafting a foreign policy that is prudent and firm at the
same time.
With the Gulf worryingly approaching insecurity onshore and offshore, Oman’s
ambition to act as a go-between will face a new stress test. Previous regional
crises have also shed some light on the pragmatic constraints hindering Muscat’s
desire to emerge as an unbiased powerbroker. Lacking the military might and
financial clout of other regional and international players, Oman cannot wield
political and economic rewards as leverage to persuade warring actors to sit at
the negotiating table. With few cards left to play, Oman’s capacity to tilt the
balance drastically narrows down. The picture worsens even more when antagonist
forces become gradually deaf to Muscat’s calls for de-escalation and worryingly
pivot toward hawkish positions. As fissures between them grow larger, it would
be increasingly painful for Muscat to find a working formula to reconcile
centrifugal pressures. Should the Gulf enter more turbulent waters and
underlying geopolitical frictions take a turn for the worse, Oman might have a
hard time abiding by its traditional balancing posture and be induced to make
unprecedented tough choices.
To Ease Syria’s Energy Crisis, Assad Must Return to the
Negotiating Table
Andrew J. Tabler, Erik Yavorsky/The Washington Institute/December 28/2022
Washington can help alleviate the country's fuel crisis, but only if Damascus
and Moscow agree to extend the cross-border aid mechanism and resume progress
toward a final political settlement.
On December 4, Syrian security forces in the southern city of Suwayda opened
fire on over two hundred protesters who were demonstrating against energy
shortages, skyrocketing prices, and governance issues. In response, protesters
expelled a joint Russian-Syrian patrol that had been deployed to monitor local
unrest, then returned to the streets on December 12. Although protests occur
daily in Syria, they are rarely seen in minority-dominated areas like Suwayda,
where many residents fill the ranks of the regime’s military and security
forces.
The precise cause of the energy shortages remains unclear, but the fact that
they are happening so early in the season means this may be the harshest winter
for Syrians since 2016. Meanwhile, another UN Security Council vote on
cross-border assistance looms on January 10. These urgent factors highlight the
need for Washington to work creatively with its allies on developing a plan to
alleviate humanitarian suffering for Syrian civilians—all the while leveraging
the regime’s economic woes to obtain concessions in negotiating a final
political settlement under UN Security Council Resolution 2254.
Protests Highlight Dire Energy Situation
The December 4 protest was described as Suwayda’s largest demonstration since
the days of Syria’s nationwide uprising in 2021. Dozens of locals stormed a
local government building, destroying photos of President Bashar al-Assad and
lighting fires inside. Security forces eventually opened fire on the protesters,
killing one; a police officer died as well.
In response to the incident, the governor of Suwayda was recalled to Damascus,
while locals in Suwayda city expelled the aforementioned joint patrol and
resumed street protests days later. The governor is now reportedly back in
Suwayda with assurances from Prime Minister Hussein Arnous that additional
electricity and diesel allotments will be provided. Yet protests continue as of
this writing.
Previously, reports indicated that the prospect of wider instability and unrest
in the area had spurred Assad to transfer the Suwayda security file from the
Military Intelligence Directorate (Mukhabarat) to his trusted hand Husam Luqa,
head of the General Intelligence Directorate. In October, the regime opened a
settlement center in Suwayda for military deserters and individuals who evade
conscription, placing it under the watchful eye of Luka and the army’s 4th
Armored Division, an elite unit dominated by Assad’s younger brother Maher.
These steps have been taken against a backdrop of new energy and fuel shortages
that are far more severe than the chronic shortfalls resulting from a decade of
civil war. Photos from Damascus show long lines waiting for buses, whose
services have been reduced for want of fuel. Taxi drivers are likewise cutting
back now that subsidized fuel is scarce. Food transportation is being affected
as well—the price of vegetables has increased over 100 percent in some areas
because it is too expensive to transport them to city centers, while bread
distributors in certain Aleppo neighborhoods are unwilling to move their product
when it is cheaper to just stay home. And absent heating mainstays such as mazut
fuel oil, some Syrians have resorted to burning pistachio shells in order to
survive the winter.
Many of these problems can be pinned on the regime’s economic woes, which
largely stem from rampant corruption and the lack of widespread postwar
reconstruction. In response, the regime has slashed basic subsidies—historically
one of its best tools for maintaining public loyalty. In November, for example,
it announced a 40 percent cut in fuel subsidies for government workers. The
draft budget for 2023 does not offer much reprieve. The government plans to
spend 12 percent less on social subsidies than in 2022, with wheat and flour
subsidies expected to see a 44 percent decrease. Although provision of oil
products is slated to increase by 25 percent, that may not be enough to reverse
the current slide. Gasoline is now available only on the black market, where
prices are beyond the reach of most Syrians, while Aleppo province has been
forced to cut diesel allotments for cars and public transport by 30 percent.
Such problems have led government offices to announce facility closures on
select days, and even recreational activities are taking a hit, with
regime-controlled sports leagues temporarily stopping play.
The severity of the current situation is also tied to a nebulous perfect storm
of unfavorable decisions made by key regional actors. On December 2, Syria’s
Ministry of Internal Trade and Consumer Protection announced that Iran had
halted oil shipments to the country as of early September, citing “extenuating
circumstances.” In November, however, Iranian sources told the pro-regime daily
al-Watan that Tehran’s crude deliveries to Syria would be increasing from 2 to 3
million barrels per month; indeed, reports show that Iranian oil tankers are
still transiting to Syrian ports. Whatever the case, such help is more of a
Band-Aid than a panacea—the total of 16 million barrels of oil that Iran
supplied to Syria from January through September was only enough to meet eighty
days of local demand.
Another foreign hindrance is Turkey’s latest spate of cross-border military
strikes against positions held by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in the
northeast. This campaign appears to have taken some Syrian oil fields and
facilities offline, reducing national production from 90,000 barrels per day to
around 20,000—a stark drop in a country whose daily oil needs hover around
200,000 barrels. It remains to be seen whether external producers can step in to
ease the shortages, as Iran did in 2019. Overall, though, the multitude of
likely drivers behind Syria’s current predicament are yet another sign of state
failure.
Leveraging Energy for Humanitarian Relief
The Suwayda protests have ignited the usual debates in policy circles, with some
advocating the immediate suspension of sanctions and others calling for tougher
sanctions in order to hasten the Assad regime’s collapse. Neither approach is
realistic, however. Syria’s energy shortages and other economic problems are
driven by the war’s destruction, not sanctions, which do not target the
country’s imports of oil products. And while the shortages could send more
protesters into the streets this winter, the likelihood of regime collapse seems
remote—Assad and his circle decided long ago on a policy of shooting Syrians
into submission, so the government cares little about closing offices that serve
the public or otherwise tightening its budgetary belt in response to sanctions.
With this in mind, the United States needs to think more creatively. First, it
should work with allies to sustain cross-border aid before Security Council
Resolution 2642 expires on January 10. That mechanism allows for supplies to be
sent through the Bab al-Hawa crossing into northwest Syria, where around 4
million refugees and displaced persons continue to take shelter. Russia allowed
just a six-month extension of the mechanism last July, seemingly gambling that
harsh winter conditions would give it more leverage when negotiating the next
resolution. In remarks at the Security Council on December 21, Moscow seemed to
pivot away from renewal, stating it is “not convinced” that the current
mechanism is the optimal way to bring aid into the country. With Syrians feeling
the economic pain even in regime-held areas, however, Russia may yet have
incentive to accept an extension in order to help its client in Damascus.
Second, Washington should fully explore expanded humanitarian waivers to help
alleviate suffering without benefiting the Assad regime’s networks. These
include Treasury Department guidelines announced this week designed to
facilitate aid flows while keeping current sanctions in place. Building on these
new rules, officials should explore the possibility of emergency fuel shipments
to Syria while limiting opportunities for the regime to exploit the flows.
One way to do this is the creation of a “white channel” for humanitarian aid in
Syria—similar to the approach taken with Iran in October 2020, when Washington
announced that foreign governments and financial institutions could establish a
payment mechanism for legitimate humanitarian exports to that country as long as
no funds were transferred to the regime. Creating such a channel for Syria would
require simultaneous decisions by like-minded governments to allow the
mechanism, as well as the establishment of a sovereign clearinghouse to assume
transaction risk for shipments in Syria (more details on these technical points
will be discussed in future PolicyWatches). This would ensure that the Assad
regime and designated organizations do not benefit from or manipulate aid
shipments—a major policy concern.
Sending energy supplies to Syria is particularly complicated because most of
them are diverted to regime facilities and networks due to the layout of the
country’s energy infrastructure. To avoid affecting civilians, U.S. sanctions
have never targeted the import of refined oil products, though some of the
sanctions stemming from the Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act have secondary
effects. Washington has shown a willingness to provide more sanctions exemptions
for certain types of energy even if this helps the regime indirectly. For
example, it recently exempted the transfer of natural gas and electricity across
Syria to Lebanon in return for energy deliveries to the Assad regime.
Technically, the latter deliveries were restricted to humanitarian uses, but
U.S. officials are no doubt aware that Syria’s electricity grid powers regime
gulags and military bases, not just civilian homes.
If Washington facilitates emergency fuel shipments to Syria, it should do so in
a manner that does not expand normalization with the Assad regime, whose abuses
are only getting worse. This means extracting clear political concessions in
return. Specifically, U.S. officials should require the regime to take concrete
steps mandated by Security Council Resolution 2254, such as releasing detainees
and allowing the Constitutional Committee to actually do its work, in line with
UN envoy Geir Pedersen’s “step for step” confidence-building measures. By
carefully leveraging the energy crisis, Washington could show Syrians that it
cares about their fate—while simultaneously signaling Assad and his Russian
patrons that he cannot restore full sovereignty over Syrian territory, so a
negotiated settlement is his only way out of the ongoing collapse.
*Andrew Tabler is the Martin J. Gross Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute
and former director for Syria on the National Security Council. Erik Yavorsky is
a research assistant in the Institute’s Program on Arab Politics.
Why bilateralism is key to any Saudi-Israeli
agreement
Tony Badran/Al Arabiya/December 28/2022
Ahead of his victory in Israel’s election in November, Benjamin Netanyahu had
been telegraphing loudly that his top priority is to pursue a peace accord with
Saudi Arabia. As he put the finishing touches on his coalition to return as
prime minister, he was given the opportunity to make his case in a historic
interview with the Saudi Al Arabiya English language website, which was covered
extensively by Arabic-language media, Reuters, AP, and the global press. At the
heart of the conversation was Netanyahu’s view of the future of Israeli-Saudi
relations, which he depicted as a “quantum” game-changer for the entire region
and the key to unlocking Israel’s impasse with the Palestinians. Netanyahu
firmly presented the possibility of peace with Saudi Arabia, which he has
described as “the big prize,” as a bilateral Saudi-Israel discussion. The
Israeli Prime Minister-elect seemed at pains to emphasize that Israel has acted
and would continue to act independently of the United States, especially when
foundational issues of the country’s security—such as the threat posed by Iran
to Israel and to the region—are at stake.
With the exception of the Abraham Accords, which were promoted by Donald Trump,
Netanyahu’s position was true to the prior history of prior successful Israeli
peacemaking efforts. Israel’s 1977 agreement with Egypt was, if anything, a
bilateral maneuver to bypass a larger US framework promoted by Jimmy Carter that
sought to emphasize the centrality of an Israeli deal with the Palestinians.
Similarly, the Jordanians wanted nothing to do with America’s “comprehensive”
peace framework, which would have put them at the mercy of the maximalism of
radical regimes like Syria, and sought a bilateral track with Israel instead. By
contrast, successive US administrations from both parties have for decades not
only focused obsessively on elevating the Palestinians, but also pursued
frameworks and tracks that empowered radical actors in the Iranian axis, like
the Assad regime, and turned them into regional centers of gravity under the
apparent theory that the spoilers should get the spoils. Barack Obama took that
approach and multiplied it tenfold with his Iran Realignment doctrine, which
elevated Iran while downgrading US ties to Israel and Saudi Arabia, depicting
them as undesirable irritants, if not outright hostiles.
The shared dilemma that has brought Israel and Saudi Arabia unexpectedly closer
over the past decade has been how to handle their relationship with an erratic
Washington bent on elevating their mutual foes. This problem is one of the
interesting aspects of the interview. In fact, Netanyahu decided to lead with
it:
“There is a need for a reaffirmation of America’s commitment to its traditional
allies in the Middle East. Israel, of course, is there and we’ve had a solid,
unbreakable relationship. But I think that the alliance, the traditional
alliance with Saudi Arabia and other countries, has to be reaffirmed. There
should not be periodic swings, or even wild swings in this relationship, because
I think that the alliance between America’s allies and with America is the
anchor of stability in our region.”
Leaving aside Netanyahu’s pretense of offering mediation on behalf of Saudi
Arabia with “my friend of 40 years, President Biden,” the Israeli Prime
Minister-elect’s statement reflects recognition of the serious shift that has
taken place in Washington with the cementing of Barack Obama’s status as the
maximum leader of the Democratic party. And although Netanyahu presented the
problem in terms of the US-Saudi relationship, in truth, behind his affirmation
of its enduring solidity, he was describing Israel’s own tensions with Team
Obama-Biden.
In recognition of this enduring divergence, Netanyahu gave a forthright positive
answer on whether he’d be prepared to attack Iran’s nuclear infrastructure
irrespective of Washington’s preference. The expressed willingness to act
independently and not be resigned to what American folly might attempt to
dictate is critical to Saudi-Israel relations, and in fact might be seen as
their overriding raison d’être.
One of the obstacles on the road to a formal agreement between the two natural
strategic allies is a workable framework. The upside of the Abraham Accords, and
what distinguished them from all previous American-sponsored frameworks, is that
they were about formally organizing US allies together in one camp and drawing a
clear line between these friends of America on one side, and the common
adversary, Iran, on the other. Netanyahu articulated this central rationale in
the interview, and described the Abraham Accords as agreements “with like-minded
states, traditional allies of the United States, and now, I think sharing common
interests to block Iranian aggression.”
But aside from the fact that the Biden team, inasmuch as it is pursuing Obama’s
diametrically opposite framework of Realignment, has expressed contempt or
downright pathological aversion to the Abraham Accords, an Israeli accord with
Saudi Arabia has to be a standalone, bilateral agreement. Netanyahu pointedly
acknowledged this need, and spoke of “a new peace initiative” with the Kingdom,
which he clearly set apart from the Abraham Accords, and appropriately so.
The importance of a bilateral framework, especially when bucking the destructive
preferences, or follies, of an American administration, cannot be overstated.
Removing the outside noise that could only sabotage bilateral interests is
paramount.
Moreover, the Kingdom’s unique position demands it.
Then there’s the fact that the Saudis had proposed their own initiative for a
peace deal two decades ago—the Arab Peace Initiative (API). Unsurprisingly, from
a Saudi-backed outlet, a large number of questions revolved around how to tackle
the Saudi initiative, with Al Arabiya reporters pressing Netanyahu to say that
he would accept the API as a “blueprint” which could be modified as needed as
the two countries hash out the details.
Yet the framing of the questions, combining the acceptance of the Saudi
initiative as a blueprint with “taking concrete steps” toward “resolving the
Palestinian issue” exposed some of the problems that made it unlikely for
Netanyahu to give a straight “yes” answer— even as the Israeli prime minister
heaped praise on the Saudi initiative and went far in outlining what the
Palestinians stand to gain.
By emphasizing “the Palestinian issue,” the framing removes the initiative from
a bilateral framework, saddling it with the intractable Palestinian baggage and
the maximalism of members of the Iran axis, like the Assad regime. Likewise,
framing the agreement as a general settlement of the issues of all Arab elements
or states with Israel instead of a bilateral initiative between Israel and the
Saudis makes any agreement hostage to revanchist elements that are hostile to
both Israeli and Saudi interests. These are some of the issues that Israel and
Saudi Arabia will need to work out moving forward, so as to center the
bilateralism that is critical to the success of any agreement between the two
states while also giving the API the due that the Saudis seem to feel is
necessary for the legitimacy of any future agreement.
Netanyahu showed a recognition of these issues when pressed again, this time
without mention of the Palestinians, on whether he’d accept the API as a
blueprint or as a “starting point” (which gives both sides more room to
maneuver): “I think 20 years later, you know, we need to have a fresh view. And
I’m not going to say what it is. I think we need to talk about it. Maybe talk
discreetly.”
Netanyahu was clearly not about to trap himself with a major announcement before
getting a much clearer and more definite indication from the Saudis of their
willingness to amend the obsolete, non-bilateral and problematic aspects of the
API. The removal of any mention of the Golan Heights from the API is one obvious
amendment: The notion that Saudi Arabia should hinge its own national interest
on Israel conceding strategic territory to Bashar al-Assad and Iran is clearly
absurd.
That such terms, related to the so-called 1967 lines, are designed to sabotage
bilateral agreements between Israel and the Arab Gulf states can be seen in how
Barack Obama, in his final hours in office in 2016, rushed to adopt them in UN
Security Council resolution 2334. With that maneuver, Obama pulled a page from
the playbook of the radical Middle Eastern regimes. Obama saw that resolution as
an instrument to fortify his Iran Realignment doctrine, to keep America’s
now-downgraded traditional allies apart, while continuing to wield the
Palestinians as a club against Israel.
It is in this context that one should read the famous John Kerry version of the
1967 Khartoum summit rejectionist “No’s.” It wasn’t analysis. It was a warning
to Israel and the Arab Gulf states that laid out Obama’s policy and preferences,
which is why Team Obama-Biden is reluctant to even utter the name of the Abraham
Accords. Hence the need for the Saudi-Israeli dialogue to be strictly bilateral
both in form and substance.
In a recent, self-parodic article written in Team Obama-Biden’s classic
Netanyahu-hating genre, an unnamed administration official asserted that the
Israeli leader would not be able to achieve any breakthrough with Saudi Arabia
without the administration’s backing. This was merely the administration looking
to insert itself in the middle in order to control the process and keep both
countries in line with its regional priorities. Perhaps, that’s another reason
why the Saudis are so eager to have Netanyahu — the man they clearly are looking
to deal with — give their initiative some sort of a public nod, which would
obviate the need for a third actor. But it’s also one reason why it’s important
they understand the pitfalls of a rigid API and how it could enable Team
Obama-Biden to push its Realignment agenda, and the tactical use of the
Palestinians to that end, under the cover of championing the API.
When it came to the administration’s pro-Iran framework for the region, there
was a section of the Al Arabiya interview where Netanyahu didn’t convey a full
appreciation of what Team Obama-Biden has been doing, including with Israel. In
a salvo of sharp back-to-back questions, Netanyahu was pressed on whether he saw
the difference between “US-sponsored agreements with countries that are backed
by Iran on one hand, and the agreements between Israel and Gulf states,” and
whether these agreements “support two very different potential regional security
architectures: one centered around the US relationship with Iran, and the second
centered around Israel's relationships in the Gulf?”
The Al Arabiya interviewing team was referring to the maritime border
demarcation deal that the Biden administration rammed through before the Israeli
elections, in which the Yair Lapid government conceded all of Hezbollah’s
demands. The deal positioned the US as a guarantor between Israel and the
Hezbollah-run pseudo state.
Netanyahu’s answer left something to be desired. To be sure, he did draw a clear
distinction between the two types of agreements and their fundamentally
different natures. That is to say, true to his understanding of the Abraham
Accords’ essential function, there’s no doubt about Netanyahu’s sense of the
regional fault lines and of the concept of friends and enemies. But his answer
did not provide insight into his view of how the administration conceptualized
the maritime agreement and how it was embroiling Israel in stabilizing
Hezbollah-land — something, by contrast, that the Saudi questioner very clearly
did understand.
For instance, while Netanyahu drew an analogy between the maritime deal and
tactical, ceasefire agreements that “hold as long as the common interest to hold
them keeps on,” he didn’t take even that analogy to its logical conclusion. That
is, Team Biden was very clear that what it was doing in Lebanon was establishing
security for “both countries” —which is to say, Israel and Hezbollah.
Administration amplifiers and cutouts spoke openly of the deal setting in place
a balance of mutual deterrence. This, the administration said, was a
manifestation of its “regional integration” framework — that is, “integrating”
Iranian equities by entangling US allies in propping them up.
While Saudi Arabia has refused to sign on to the American framework and fund its
enemies, despite tremendous pressure from the administration to underwrite
Lebanon, the Lapid government folded like a lawn chair. It’s obvious from
Netanyahu’s tiptoeing around the issue that he’s basically stuck with the deal —
a deal which will stabilize, entrench, and enrich Hezbollah on Israel’s border.
But Netanyahu also went to great lengths in the interview to describe Israel’s
persistent campaign over the past decade targeting Iranian and Hezbollah
infrastructure in Syria to prevent the latter from becoming another missile base
on Israel’s border. The strikes are now a near-weekly occurrence — itself a
testament to Iran’s own determination. But the price for these strikes has been
to leave Hezbollah’s infrastructure in Lebanon unmolested. Netanyahu rightly
described that build-up — not any border dispute —as the cause of instability.
But with the maritime deal, the Biden administration, explicitly, was trying to
lock in place an arrangement to keep Lebanon stabilized and unmolested as a
Hezbollah missile base. That is to say, with the foreign investments that come
with the deal, as well as with the insertion of the US in the middle as a
guarantor, the administration was putting multiple checks in place on Israeli
action in Lebanon moving forward.
Perhaps inherent in Netanyahu’s answer is the acknowledgement that, if and when
at some point a war with Hezbollah becomes necessary, then this deal will not
stand in the way. Maybe also, as with his answer about his willingness to take
action against Iran’s nuclear program, he will disregard Washington’s
preferences in Lebanon when Israel’s security is even more directly threatened.
But we’re not clear on whether or not he recognizes that extending a protective
umbrella to Hezbollah-run Lebanon is the active US intent here.
This historic interview gave us a front-seat look at an initial public
discussion of some of the issues that the two US allies will need to tackle
moving forward as they look to come together to grapple with the disaster that
Team Obama-Biden has foisted on them and the region.