English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For December 28/2022
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

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http://eliasbejjaninews.com/aaaanewsfor2021/english.december28.22.htm

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Bible Quotations For today
The Magi, Wise men, prostrate & pay Homage to the child Jesus: When they saw that the star had stopped, they were overwhelmed with joy. On entering the house, they saw the child with Mary his mother; and they knelt down and paid him homage. Then, opening their treasure-chests, they offered him gifts of gold, frankincense, and myrrh
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Matthew 02/01-12./:"In the time of King Herod, after Jesus was born in Bethlehem of Judea, wise men from the East came to Jerusalem, asking, ‘Where is the child who has been born king of the Jews? For we observed his star at its rising, and have come to pay him homage. ’When King Herod heard this, he was frightened, and all Jerusalem with him; and calling together all the chief priests and scribes of the people, he inquired of them where the Messiah was to be born. They told him, ‘In Bethlehem of Judea; for so it has been written by the prophet: "And you, Bethlehem, in the land of Judah, are by no means least among the rulers of Judah; for from you shall come a ruler who is to shepherd my people Israel." ’Then Herod secretly called for the wise men and learned from them the exact time when the star had appeared. Then he sent them to Bethlehem, saying, ‘Go and search diligently for the child; and when you have found him, bring me word so that I may also go and pay him homage.’ When they had heard the king, they set out; and there, ahead of them, went the star that they had seen at its rising, until it stopped over the place where the child was. When they saw that the star had stopped, they were overwhelmed with joy. On entering the house, they saw the child with Mary his mother; and they knelt down and paid him homage. Then, opening their treasure-chests, they offered him gifts of gold, frankincense, and myrrh. And having been warned in a dream not to return to Herod, they left for their own country by another road

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on December 27-28/2022/
God Bless Mohamad Chatah’s Soul/Elias Bejjani/December 27/2022
A Decorative, Or A facade President?/Etienne Saqr – Abu Arz/December 27/2022
Suspect arrested in killing of UN peacekeeper in Lebanon
Lebanese army pledges continuous cooperation with UNIFIL in southern Lebanon
Lira recovers after Salameh says BDL to sell dollars at 38,000
Safa calls Aoun and Bassil, says 'no divorce' with FPM
Molotov cocktail hurled at al-Jadeed TV in Beirut
Al-Rahi to Berri: Christmas greeting should've been president election
Mikati meets Berri over govt. file, state affairs
Iran brags about its missile export to Palestinians, Hezbollah/Seth J. Frantzman/Jerusalem Post/December 27/2022

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on December 27-28/2022/
Audio/The Jihad Brothers/Foreign Podicy/December 27/2022
Israel's Netanyahu closer to hard-right government with new legislation
Israeli air force veterans say incoming government a danger
Israel parliament passes laws ahead of Netanyahu return
Netanyahu’s Right-Wing Blitz Is the ‘Most Corrupt’ Day in Israeli History
Labour calls for new Magnitsky sanctions amid Iranian crackdown
The Iranian Regime Has Musicians, Actors, and Artists In Its Crosshairs
Iranian chess players Sara Khadem and Atousa Pourkashiyan compete in international tournament without hijab
Iran holds funerals for troops killed in 1980s Iraq war
France opens suicide probe after Iranian found dead in Rhône river
Lavrov: Ukraine must demilitarize or Russia will do it
Russian Lawmaker Who Slammed Putin’s War Dies After Falling From a Window

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on December 27-28/2022/
Iran closer than ever to weapons-grade uranium, ex-top defense official says/Tal Schneider/The Times Of Israel/December 27/2022
Biden Opens Door to China Sabotage in North Dakota/Gordon G. Chang/Gatestone Institute/December 27, 2022
Here’s a list of Putin critics who’ve ended up dead/Jeremy Wilson,Taylor Ardrey/Business Insider/Tue, December 27, 2022
Zelensky in Washington… Looking for the US/Nadim KoteichRobert Ford/Asharq Al Awsat/December 27/2022
3 Predictions for American Politics in 2023/Robert Ford/Asharq Al Awsat/December 27/2022

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on December 27-28/2022/
God Bless Mohamad Chatah’s Soul
Elias Bejjani/Published on December 27/13, The Day Mohamad Chatah was assassinated
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/11050/elias-bejjanigod-bless-mohamad-chatahs-soul/
Once again the Iranian-Syrian Evil Of Axis Criminals brutally assassinate a patriotic, peaceful and intellectual Lebanese dignitary. Today, in occupied and oppressed Lebanon, the former Lebanese minister Mohamad Chatah was murdered in a massive car bomb blast that killed also and seriously injured tens of innocent citizens in Lebanon’s capital, Beirut.
Mohamad Chatah, the courageous outspoken 62 years old moderate academic and noble political figure strongly believed in a free and sovereign Lebanon, dialogue, the language of reason, and in the right to different views and political stances.
Sadly, this morning, Chatah joined all the other patriotic and heroic Lebanese martyrs who with faith and devotion fell while struggling to reclaim Lebanon’s confiscated independence, sovereignty and freedoms.
There is no doubt that the Assad dictatorship intelligence and the terrorist Hezbollah Iranian militia are behind this horrible crime, as they were with evilness and shame accountable for all other similar crimes that occurred since 1960 and targeted Lebanese patriotic leaders, clergymen, officials and politicians.
It is worth mentioning that Chatah’s assassination took place three weeks before the long-delayed opening of a trial of five Hezbollah suspects indicted for the 2005 bombing that killed former Lebanese PM Rafik al-Hariri with 21 other individuals.
The Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL), trial is due to start next month in Hague. The suspects are all prominent Hezbollah military members. Meanwhile this terrorist Iranian organization has strongly refused to cooperate with the court, alleging it is politically motivated.
In my capacity as a Canadian – Lebanese Human Rights Activist and political commentator, I strongly and with the harshest terms condemn this barbaric and terrorist crime and call on the free world countries to help the Lebanese people and its patriotic and peaceful leaders by all available means and resources to reclaim Lebanon’s independence that is confiscated by Hezbollah, the Iranian-Syrian Axis of Evil military proxy
Deepest sympathies are extended to the families and friends of those killed in today, and all wish for a speedy recovery to all the injured.
May the souls of all those innocent victims that were killed today rest in peace.

A Decorative, Or A facade President?
Etienne Saqr – Abu Arz/December 27/2022
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/114452/114452/
Statement from the Guardians of the Cedars – Movement of Lebanese Nationalists, (in the Lebanese language).
Any one who says that we must elect a new president as soon as possible, and in this current political atmosphere, he is definitely either fooling himself, or deceiving the Lebanese people.
The current ruling gangsters and thugs, can not produce anything, but a president who resembles them. These thugs and the present political atmosphere can only bring out a consensual president, or a follower of “Hezbollah”.
1- A consensual president means, a non-Binary individual (neither female nor male), who is A decorative, or a facade President?
Such a president will be obliged and forced to satisfy and appease the interests of all the political blocs, and political parties that elected him, at the expense of the interests of Lebanon. and the Lebanese. Such a status quo, with such a president will prevail for six years, dragging us backwards, or at best, a stalemate situation with the same miserable current status quo.
2- A president affiliated with “Hezbollah”, means a clone from the previous era. May Almighty God save us from another six years in the flames of hell.
I, stated more than once, and will repeat, that the presidential vacuum at the present time, with a caretaker government, remains much better than a bad president, who will be riding on the back of our people for another six years.
Our people, ask me what is the solution? My response: the revolution is the only solution.
Meanwhile, if our people do not take their rights into their own hands, no one will offer them these rights on a silver platter.
Long Live Lebanon.
Etienne Saqr – Abu Arz
(Translated freely by Elias Bejjani)

Suspect arrested in killing of UN peacekeeper in Lebanon
BEIRUT (AP)/December 27, 2022
The Lebanese army has arrested a suspect in the killing earlier this month of a U.N. peacekeeper from Ireland who died when his convoy was shot at in southern Lebanon, officials said Tuesday. The area of the Dec. 14 shooting attack, near the southern town of Al-Aqbiya, is a center of support for the Lebanese militant Hezbollah group, which has denied any role in the killing. Hezbollah spokeswoman Rana Sahili said on Friday that the Lebanese army arrested the suspect “in cooperation with Hezbollah,” and that he wasn’t a member of the militant group. Two Lebanese security officials confirmed the arrest, speaking on condition of anonymity in line with regulations, and said the investigation into the killing is ongoing. They did not identify or provide any details about the suspect. Initially, the military detained three people in connection with the attack but released two who were found not to have been involved in the killing, one of the security officials said. Andrea Tenenti, spokesman for the U.N. peacekeeping mission known as UNIFIL, said the peacekeepers have yet to receive “official information” regarding any arrests. On the fatal night, 24 year-old Pvt. Seán Rooney of Newtowncunningham and several other Irish peacekeepers were on their way from their base in the south to the Beirut airport. Two U.N. vehicles apparently took a detour through Al-Aqbiya, which is not part of the area under the peacekeepers’ mandate. According to earlier reports, a group of angry residents confronted the peacekeepers, claiming they were outside their jurisdiction, and opened fire at their vehicles. Confrontations between residents in southern Lebanon and UNIFIL troops are not uncommon. However, one of the two security officials said the suspect who was arrested had been part of a group that followed the U.N. convoy from the town of Sarafand, about 4 kilometers (2.5 miles) away, suggesting a targeted attack. The conflicting reports about the attack could not be immediately reconciled. Rooney was buried in Ireland last week, while another Irish peacekeeper, who was wounded in the attack, 22-year-old Pvt. Shane Kearney, was medically evacuated from Lebanon to Ireland. UNIFIL was created to oversee the withdrawal of Israeli troops from southern Lebanon after a 1978 invasion. The U.N. expanded its mission following the 2006 war between Israel and the Iran-backed Hezbollah, allowing peacekeepers to deploy along the Israeli border to help the Lebanese military extend its authority into the country’s south for the first time in decades. Hezbollah supporters in Lebanon frequently accuse the U.N. mission of collusion with Israel, while Israel has accused the peacekeepers of turning a blind eye to Hezbollah’s military activities in southern Lebanon.

Lebanese army pledges continuous cooperation with UNIFIL in southern Lebanon
Xinhua/December 27, 2022 
Lebanon's Armed Forces Commander Joseph Aoun on Tuesday reaffirmed the army's continuous cooperation with the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) to preserve peace in southern Lebanon. "UNIFIL is a strategic partner of the Lebanese army in implementing UN Resolution 1701," Aoun was quoted as saying by the National News Agency. Aoun's remarks came during his visit to the Irish-Polish Battalion of the UNIFIL in Bint Jbeil in southern Lebanon to honor the four Irish soldiers whose vehicle was shot at in Al-Aqbieh on Dec. 14, leading to the death of one of the soldiers, Sean Rooney.
"The Irish-Polish battalion has a long history of service within UNIFIL since 1978, and during this period, it offered martyrs among its members. I salute the battalion's members, the heroic peacekeepers, who are far from their homelands and their families to maintain peace in Lebanon and support the population in the south," said Aoun. For his part, Aroldo Lazaro Saenz, chief of UNIFIL, thanked the Lebanese army for its solidarity with UNIFIL, appreciating the efforts made by the army to investigate the incident. On Dec. 14, a peacekeeper was killed and three others injured in an incident in Al-Aqbieh outside UNIFIL's area of operations in southern Lebanon. L'orient Le Jour, a local newspaper, reported on Sunday that Lebanon's Hezbollah group has handed over a man suspected of killing the Irish peacekeeper, adding that "preliminary investigations are nearly complete."

Lira recovers after Salameh says BDL to sell dollars at 38,000
Naharnet/December 27/2022
The black market dollar exchange rate witnessed a dramatic drop around noon Tuesday after Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh announced that banks will start selling dollars to the public at a Sayrafa platform rate of LBP 38,000. “Throughout the three-day holidays period, the U.S. dollar exchange rate surged by LBP 2,000 on the parallel market due to speculation operations and the smuggling of dollars to abroad. This hike caused inflation on the markets, which harmed the Lebanese citizen seeing as prices in Lebanon are linked to the dollar exchange rate,” Salameh said in a statement. “Accordingly, and based on articles 75 and 83 of the Code of Money and Credit, it has been decided firstly to hike the Sayrafa exchange rate to LBP 38,000, and secondly for the central bank to buy all Lebanese liras and sell the dollar at the LBP 38,000 Sayrafa rate,” the governor added. He also said that “individuals and institutions, and without sum limits, can apply to all Lebanese banks to carry out these operations until further announcement.”Salameh’s statement swiftly led to a collapse in the dollar exchange rate on the black market. However, the unofficial rate re-bounced to LBP 45,000 at around 1pm Tuesday after having reached LBP 42,000 earlier in the day. The black market rate had reached the LBP 48,000 mark on Monday.

Safa calls Aoun and Bassil, says 'no divorce' with FPM
Naharnet/December 27/2022
Hezbollah security chief Wafiq Safa has wished former president Michel Aoun a merry Christmas on behalf of Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah. Safa told the OTV that there is no divorce between Hezbollah and the Free Patriotic Movement.
"I have called former president Michel Aoun and FPM chief Jebran Bassil to greet them for Christmas, on behalf of Hezbollah's Secretary-General," Safa said, hoping for "more dialogue and communication" between the two parties in the coming days.

Molotov cocktail hurled at al-Jadeed TV in Beirut
Naharnet/December 27/2022
Unknown assailants have hurled a Molotov cocktail bomb overnight at al-Jadeed TV building in Wata el-Mousaitbeh, the media outlet said. Al-Jadeed reported Tuesday that the bomb self-extinguished before reaching the building and that security forces have launched an investigation into the incident. Al-Jadeed TV and actress Joanna Karaky had recently been severely criticized after Karaky said, in a sketch comedy show, that many southerners have got married to United Nations peacekeepers and that's why many children there are blond with green or blue eyes. The sketch was broadcast on al-Jadeed's comedy show Fashet Kheleq against the backdrop of the killing of an Irish peacekeeper earlier this month. It infuriated the southerners who condemned the TV channel and the actress, especially on social media.

Al-Rahi to Berri: Christmas greeting should've been president election
Naharnet/December 27/2022
Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi has chided Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri during a phone call, media reports said on Tuesday. Berri called al-Rahi on Monday to offer Christmas greetings, which prompted the patriarch to admonish him, saying: “I was waiting for you to greet me through the election of a president.”Berri responded by reminding al-Rahi that he had called for dialogue twice and that his calls had fallen on deaf ears. “The priority today is for the election of a president,” Berri added. The patriarch for his part reiterated that “the state cannot function without a head” and that “without a president Lebanon would die.”

Mikati meets Berri over govt. file, state affairs
Naharnet/December 27/2022
Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati met Tuesday with Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri in Ain el-Tineh. The two leaders discussed the governmental file and how to run the state's affairs, Mikati said after the meeting.

Iran brags about its missile export to Palestinians, Hezbollah
Seth J. Frantzman/Jerusalem Post/December 27/2022
Tehran Times published an article describing how Iran developed its missiles and distributed it to its allies throughout the Middle East.
Iranian pro-government media published an article on Sunday bragging about its “integrated missile network” and how it has armed the “resistance” in the Middle East.
By “resistance,” the report was referring to a network of pro-Iranian groups and proxy groups it supports, particularly Hezbollah, the Palestinians and Yemen.
The article begins as a tribute to Hassan Tehrani Moghaddam, an Iranian IRGC general who was killed in an explosion at a missile facility near Tehran on November 12, 2011. The report notes that “several IRGC officers were also martyred in the Moddares arsenal explosion along with Tehrani Moghaddam. At the time of his martyrdom, Tehrani Moghaddam was preparing a missile test.” The article notes that he was a key figure in the missile program for years, often considered the “father” of Iran’s missile program.
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps rulers inherited an impressive arsenal in 1979 from the shah’s regime, including modern aircraft and other weapons. However, as they suffered attrition in the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, they had to replace the modern Western systems the shah’s army had used with new weapons – so they began developing missiles and drones. The missiles were based on Soviet models, or Soviet-origin models that came from China, or eventually, from North Korea, as well as from other sources.
The Tehran Times article notes, “Moghaddam also established the Lebanese Hezbollah’s missile units during a visit to Lebanon in the 1980s. Analysts believe that Tehrani Moghaddam has based Iran’s defense strategy on missile capabilities and missile deterrence, a move that effectively removed the military option of the enemies of Iran from the table.”Iran's missile threat overview
The article is unique in that it provides an overview of Iran’s missile threats. It is ostensibly a historic article, summarizing the last two decades of Iran helping Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Hezbollah, the Houthis in Yemen, the Hashd in Iraq, the Syrian regime and others develop missiles.
The overall message is also forward looking. Iran is moving more missiles and missile technology to Yemen and Lebanon, all amid active threats to the US, Israel and the Gulf from these proxy locations, such as Iraq or Syria.
According to the report, Palestinian groups began using missiles against Israel years ago, and eventually began to use the Fajr 5 rocket. This system was “strengthened” into a better missile in 2013, and Hezbollah began to deploy Iranian-backed missile technology against Israel. Missiles were used in the Second Lebanon War in 2006, and Hezbollah was eventually equipped with the Fateh 110 missile.
IRAN HAS also used this missile in its attacks against Kurdish groups in Iraq. The article brags about Iran targeting an Israeli Sa’ar 5 ship during the Second Lebanon War. The report adds that the missile Hezbollah used was an anti-ship cruise missile with a range of 120 km., approximately 75 miles.
“Recently, during the border dispute with the Zionist regime over the Karish gas field, Lebanon’s Hezbollah released a picture of a cruise missile launcher, which is similar to the Iranian Abu Mahdi anti-ship cruise missile launcher with a range of 1,000 km. [621 miles],” the article explains, adding that Hezbollah holds missiles that can target the “furthest” places in “the occupied territories,” a thinly veiled reference to Israel.
The article also hints that Iran helped equip the Syrian regime with missiles, in addition to the Houthis, specifically referencing the “unveiling” of missiles.
The Houthis began by using older missiles that were left over in Yemen from previous wars.
“In the next step, by upgrading the Scud missiles left over from the Soviet era, they obtained Barkan series liquid fuel missiles with a different warhead and very similar to the Iranian missiles,” the report notes. The Houthis have now upgraded these missiles – apparently with Iranian IRGC advice – and they now have liquid- and solid-fuel missiles, the article claims.
“What is a noteworthy point in this field is that the resistance forces in both Yemen and Lebanon today are equipped with surface-to-surface, anti-ship and cruise ballistic missiles, missiles that are able to hit all types of vessels in different ranges with proper accuracy and destructive power, and if appropriate tactics are used, they are also able to pass through the defense systems of combat vessels.”
This shows that Iran is increasingly thinking about targeting shipping vessels. Tehran used drones to target commercial ships in the summer of 2021 and again in November of this year.
The article, despite clearly bragging that Iran equipped the “resistance” in Yemen, also says, “No official source in Iran has yet officially confirmed the sending of missiles to Yemen and the resistance front. It seems that now the resistance groups have achieved the technologies of using and sometimes manufacturing all kinds of missiles and rockets.”
Indeed, they achieved this through Iran’s advice and backing.
The end result, the report says, is that Iran has now sought to create an “integrated missile network” that will be very important for the region, putting it “under the umbrella of the integrated missile and drone network of Iran and its allies, and a new challenge will arise for America and its regional supporters.”
This is the main point of the article, suggesting that Iran has knit together the missiles that are used by Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza, Hezbollah’s missiles, and those in Syria, Iraq and Yemen.
This gives Iran thousands of practical frontlines to use missiles against the US, Israel, the Gulf and others. It also extends this threat to the sea, with ranges up to 1,000 km., covering a very large area. Countries in the region are rushing to integrate their air defenses against this threat.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on December 27-28/2022/
Audio/The Jihad Brothers/
December 23, 2022/Foreign Podicy
https://www.fdd.org/podcasts/2022/12/23/the-jihad-brothers/
Clifford D. May/Founder & President
Reuel Marc Gerecht/Senior Fellow
Cynthia Farahat/Middle East Forum
Listen
FDD · The Jihad Brothers
The Muslim Brotherhood has been around for close to a century but most people – certainly most Americans and Europeans – know very little about it. Is it reformist and non-violent as its spokesmen and defenders claim? Or is it – as Cynthia Farahat argues in a new book – the world’s most dangerous terrorist organization?
The book is titled: The Secret Apparatus: The Muslim Brotherhood’s Industry of Death.
Cynthia Farahat is an Egyptian-American writer, counterterrorism expert, and fellow at the Middle East Forum, whose president, Daniel Pipes, a distinguished scholar, wrote the forward to her book.
She joins host Cliff May as well as FDD’s Reuel Marc Gerecht, formerly a Middle Eastern specialist at the CIA’s Directorate of Operations, to discuss

Israel's Netanyahu closer to hard-right government with new legislation
JERUSALEM (Reuters)/December 27, 2022
Israeli Prime Minister-designate Benjamin Netanyahu moved one step further on Tuesday toward establishing a government after parliament approved divisive legislation agreed with his far-right coalition partners. Already facing criticism on policy before taking office, Netanyahu has vowed to govern for all Israelis even as he will head one of the most right-wing governments in the country's history with key ministries in the hands of hardliners. Despite a clear election win in November for his right-wing and religious bloc of parties, it has taken Netanyahu almost two months to reach deals with his allies, who have demanded a significant share of power in return for their support. Tuesday's amendments to Israel's government law will ultimately enable the pro-settler Religious Zionism party to take up a post of second minister within the defence ministry, granting it broad authority over expansion of Jewish settlements in the occupied West Bank - land Palestinians seek for a state. A second amendment will allow Aryeh Deri, leader of the ultra-Orthodox Shas party, to serve as a minister despite a conviction for tax fraud. Deri is expected to serve as finance minister in two years, in a rotation deal with Religious Zionism leader Bezalel Smotrich.
But soon after the legislation was passed, Israel's Supreme Court said it would hear an appeal against Deri's appointment by a group of scientists, academics and former diplomats called "Democracy's Bastion."Netanyahu is expected to swear in his new government on Dec. 29 after advancing legislation to grant new powers over the police to Itamar Ben-Gvir, head of the ultra-nationalist Jewish Power party, as a national security minister. The legislation, along with pledges to curb Supreme Court powers, anti-gay statements from coalition members and calls to allow a business to refuse services to people based on religious grounds, have alarmed liberal Israelis as well as Western allies, while drawing criticism from rights groups, businesses and serving officials. In response, Netanyahu has repeatedly said that he will safeguard civil rights and will not allow any harm to the country's Arab minority or to the LGBTQ community.

Israeli air force veterans say incoming government a danger
JERUSALEM (AP)/December 27, 2022
Over 1,000 senior Israeli air force veterans, including a former Israeli chief of staff, on Monday urged the country’s top legal officials to stand tough against the incoming government. In a letter to the chief of Israel's Supreme Court and other top officials, they said the alliance of religious and ultranationalist parties threatens Israel’s future. The letter was delivered days before the new government is to take office. “We come from all strata of society and from across the political spectrum,” the letter said. “What we have in common today is the fear that the democratic state of Israel is in danger.”
It called the legal officials “the final line of defense” and implored them to “do everything in your reach to stop the disaster that is affecting the country.”Among the nearly 1,200 signatories were Dan Halutz, who served as military chief from 2005-2007; Avihu Ben-Nun, a former commander of the air force and Amos Yadlin, a former head of military intelligence. All three are former fighter pilots. Former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his ultra-Orthodox and far-right partners captured a parliamentary majority in Nov. 1 elections. While they have not yet completed coalition negotiations, Netanyahu has reached a series of deals that would grant his far-right partners authority over the national police force and settlement construction in the occupied West Bank. They are promoting legislation to allow a politician who spent time in prison in a bribery case to serve as a Cabinet minister while on probation for a separate conviction on tax offenses. They also are expected to promote a series of changes in the legal system that critics say will weaken the judiciary and potentially dismiss criminal charges against Netanyahu. On Sunday, Netanyahu rebuked an ally over anti-LGBTQ comments. Netanyahu is expected to return to office as head of his new government on Thursday.

Israel parliament passes laws ahead of Netanyahu return
Agence France Presse/December 27/2022
Israel's parliament on Tuesday passed controversial legislation paving the way for the return of veteran hawk Benjamin Netanyahu as prime minister. Following his November 1 election win, Netanyahu secured a mandate to form a government backed by ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties and an extreme-right bloc.
Netanyahu will present what analysts have said will be the most right-wing government in Israel's history to parliament on Thursday.On Tuesday, lawmakers passed legislation that now allows anyone convicted of offences but not given a custodial sentence to serve as a minister. Before the law was passed, there had been uncertainty over whether Aryeh Deri, a key ally from the ultra-Orthodox Shas party, would be able to serve as he had previously pled guilty to tax offences. A second law passed allows for two ministers to serve in the same office. The measure is aimed at the defence ministry, where Bezalel Smotrich, leader of the extreme-right formation Religious Zionism, is to be the minister with control over civil affairs in the occupied West Bank. The Knesset also voted to expand the powers of the national security minister, a portfolio set to be handed to Itamar Ben Gvir, another extreme-right figure. The morning session also saw Netanyahu ally Yariv Levin resign as interim speaker of the Knesset, ahead of his expected appointment to a ministry. Rules require that he had not been in the speaker's post for 48 hours before any ministerial appointment. Netanyahu, who is fighting corruption allegations in court, has already served as premier longer than anyone in Israel, including a 1996 to 1999 stint and a record 12-year tenure from 2009 to 2021. His incoming government has sparked fears of a military escalation in the West Bank amid the worst violence in the Israeli-occupied Palestinian territory for nearly 20 years.

Netanyahu’s Right-Wing Blitz Is the ‘Most Corrupt’ Day in Israeli History
Noga Tarnopolsky/The Daily Beast./Tue, December 27/2022
JERUSALEM—Israel’s parliament, now with a majority of legislators promising to back incoming Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, is on a radical right-wing “legislative blitz” ahead of his anticipated installation on Thursday. The House has effectively been commandeered to enable Netanyahu’s sixth government by passing laws required to tie up coalition deals with his radical new partners. Without a series of laws fundamentally transforming Israel’s judicial landscape, Netanyahu has no way of forming a governing coalition, and Israel would be launched towards new elections.
A law passed in the early hours of Tuesday permits the reinstatement of Aryeh Deri, a former interior minister, who resigned from the Knesset last year as part of a plea deal in which he admitted to defrauding the state of $152,365 in taxes, and agreed to leave public life. That was Deri’s second entanglement with the law: in 2000 he was convicted of accepting bribes and was sentenced to three years in jail, of which he served two. Netanyahu—don’t forget—is himself on trial for bribery, fraud and breach of trust, and does not have the parliamentary votes to form a coalition government without Deri’s Shas party. Ergo, the law which allows Deri to become a minister in the Netanyau’s latest coalition. Baruch Kra, legal analyst for Israel's Channel 13 television, tweeted that “this morning, December 27, 2022, with the passage of the Deri Law, will be remembered as the most corrupt in the history of the Israeli parliament.”Another law passed under cover of night will benefit Bezalel Smotrich, a nationalist theocrat who hopes to impose “Torah law” on Israel, and a self-described “proud homophobe” slated to become Israel’s finance minister in the new coalition. The law will allow him to take a huge amount of control over the occupied West Bank, which was previously under the sole purview of Israel’s army. It even explicitly limits Netanyahu’s ability to direct policy over the occupied territory.
These changes will also position Smotrich to clash with the Israeli army. On Tuesday, Smotirch attacked Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff General Aviv Kochavi and accused him of “blatant politicization” after Kochavi—in a very rare move—warned Netanyahu on Monday that “electoral deals will break the chain of command” and are “harming the army.”
The appointment of Itamar Ben Gvir, another extremist coalition partner, to a newly created Ministry of National Security, required the late-night passage of another special law, also granting him powers over the West Bank previously held by the Israeli army.
Netanyahu also committed to passing a death penalty law for “terrorists,” ironically demanded by Ben Gvir–the only Israeli lawmaker ever convicted of terror associations.
Under its newly clipped powers, the Israeli army will not even be able to appoint its own chaplains—a responsibility handed to the Sephardic Chief Rabbi as part of Netanyahu's coalition deals.
Despite numerous appearances in U.S. media outlets, in which Netanyahu scoffed at the possibility that gay rights could be negatively impacted under his watch, his party signed a coalition agreement promising Smotrich’s party support for a “discrimination law” that makes no pretense of respecting 70-years of anti-bias jurisprudence. Smotrich’s bills will legalize inequity in the Israeli public sphere such as hotels and commercial businesses, and allow doctors to deny treatment to any patient who defies the physician’s personal values, including their sexuality.
Another coalition deal, will grant Jewish religious courts the power to rule on civil and economic matters.
However, critics say the greatest shock about to hit Israel will transform its judiciary from an independent branch of government to a vestigial limb, and is likely to plunge Israel into the area of partial, or authoritarian, democracies such as Hungary and Poland.
A rare 11-member panel of Israel's supreme court is already scheduled to convene next week to hear petitions against Deri's return to power. Appeals against Smotrich’s and Ben Gvir’s takeover of military prerogatives have already been filed.
The supreme court may allow these aberrations to slide based on their passage by a parliamentary majority, but to avoid the specter of legal entanglements in the future, Netanyahu’s new government plans an “override clause” allowing any simple majority of legislators—61 out of 120 Knesset members—to override, or, in effect, annul, Supreme Court rulings.
In addition, the incoming government is expected to neuter the role of government counsel, so that if parliamentary or ministerial legal advisers rule that the government is acting unlawfully, their advice will carry no weight.
The country’s top judicial cadre is sounding the alarm. In a previously scheduled speech, Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara, who is expected to refuse to defend some of the incoming government’s laws in court, warned that Netanyahu's legislative onslaught will turn Israel into “a democracy in name only.”Politicization of the law enforcement system will lead to a serious blow to the most basic principles of the rule of law—equality, the absence of arbitrariness and the absence of bias,” she said. “It will be a fatal blow to its ability to function and a serious injury to public trust. In a democratic country, it is inappropriate to change the relationship between the political echelon and the law enforcement system in a blitz of legislation.”In an unrelated appearance, former Supreme Court Justice Ayala Procaccia described Netanyahu’s “judicial reforms” as “a danger both domestic and to Israel’s international standing,” and warned, “we must not remain silent, we must act with full force and with every legitimate means against the process of the disintegration of our system of values.”
Israel has undergone five successive elections since 2019. Netanyahu won the Nov. 1 elections with his party the largest in the Knesset with 32 seats only a year and a half after he was removed from power. The coalition agreements signed in order to secure his majority of 61 have stretched Israeli state structures into forms resembling animal balloons. A swelling tide of influential voices has begun issuing distress signals, starting with top education ministry officials, decrying the “dismantling” of the country’s infrastructure to satisfy demands from Netanyahu's extremist coalition partners. More than a thousand former air force officers joined titans of Israel’s tech sector to warn of damage being done to the state.
The Israeli Medical Association issued a statement declaring that physicians would continue to abide by the Hippocratic oath, which demands that doctors attend all patients, “no matter which law is passed,” and the Israeli Hotel Association said its hotels would continue to welcome all guests without regard to personal characteristics. On Monday, Israel Discount Bank, one of Israel’s largest banks, announced it would not extend credit to any business or organization that discriminates on the basis or race, religion, gender, or sexual orientation. Ben Gvir demanded and got from Netanyahu the cancelation of an Israeli law that disqualified any Knesset candidate convicted of “incitement to racism.”The legislative tsunami has come at a cost for Netanyahu, who appears unable to deny even the most far-fetched demands made by his new and hungry coalition partners. In a period of just twenty-four hours, Netanyahu was forced to issue four statements disavowing the coalition agreements he had just signed. Notably, Netanyahu offered a gentle equivocation from his son Yair’s suggestion that state prosecutors handling Netanyahu’s trial should be executed. In a Friday radio program on which Yair, 31, an influential right-wing troll with no known employment, is a regular guest, he said the law enforcement officers and state prosecutors who investigated and indicted his father in 2019 were “traitors,” adding, “everyone is welcome to look up Israel's law books laws & see the punishment for treason: it’s not prison.”
After three days of silence, Netanyahu Sr. issued a statement stating he “didn't agree with what he said.”"Netanyahu lies down with dogs and acts surprised when he wakes up with fleas," wrote the political analyst for Haaretz, a liberal daily newspaper. “What exactly was he thinking when he joined up with parties who proclaim messianism, racism, exclusion, homophobia and hatred of the other?”The answer is clear: what he was thinking was how to save his political skin.

Labour calls for new Magnitsky sanctions amid Iranian crackdown
Dominic McGrath/PA Media: UK News/Tue, December 27, 2022
New sanctions should be placed on those involved in the suppression of protests in Iran, Labour has said. Shadow foreign secretary David Lammy said Magnitsky sanctions, which target human rights violations, should be used against organisations or individuals involved in the crackdown.
It comes after Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard said it had arrested seven individuals involved in the protests with a “direct link” to Britain. Without elaborating, it said some members of the network had dual nationality. Tehran has arrested a number of Iranians with dual nationality in recent years and convicted them of state security offences in closed-door trials. It is also believed that Iranian-made attack drones are being used by Russia to target Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure. Mr Lammy said: “The killings and repression being carried out by the Iranian regime against courageous Iranian protesters seeking a better future is appalling. There must be an end to impunity. “The UK Government urgently needs to put in place new Magnitsky sanctions against individuals and organisations involved in the repression. “The Iranian regime must be held accountable for every crime it has committed through an urgent investigation by the UN Human Rights Council.” The UK has introduced a wave of sanctions on Iran in response to its crackdown on the protests that erupted after the death in custody of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini. On Tuesday, Foreign Secretary James Cleverly tweeted that the UK would “hold the tyrants in Iran to account” as he set out the British response to the country’s actions.

The Iranian Regime Has Musicians, Actors, and Artists In Its Crosshairs
Juliette Verlaque/The Daily Beast/December 27, 2022
Growing up in Iran, Sahar Ajdamsani, 26, recalls that she was in love with reading and writing stories from the time she was eight years old, and realized that, despite the risk, there was nothing else she wanted to do with her life other than to become an artist.
“Of course I knew it was dangerous,” the singer-songwriter and poet said recently from exile in Germany. “But I liked music beyond anything in this world.”
Isolating the Murderous Iranian Regime Is Both Just and Necessary
In 2021, Sahar, who has over 400,00 followers on Instagram, wrote a song, “Quarantine World,” which became a global call to action featuring 11 artists from around the world calling for unity during the COVID-19 pandemic. The song was not a viral hit, but for the Iranian authorities, that didn’t matter—Sahar had committed a crime simply because she was a woman who had released music, which is, in Iran, an illegal act that can lead to imprisonment, and even death. In September of that year, she was summoned to appear before the Iranian Ministry of Intelligence. Her bank accounts were frozen and her family received repeated calls from unknown numbers—which they suspected were from the government. Fearing for her life, Sahar fled to Iraq. Broke and separated from her family, she suffered severe depression and anxiety, while facing an unknown future.
For decades, Iran has been one of the most dangerous places in the world to be an artist, with extraordinarily high levels of repression and censorship that penetrate every aspect of society. In PEN America’s 2021 Freedom to Write Index—an annual count of imprisoned writers worldwide—Iran is one of the top five global jailers of writers, with at least 21 jailed during 2021 for their free expression.
The situation has only worsened dramatically since the outbreak of mass demonstrations in September 2022 following the death of 22-year old Mahsa Amini, a Kurdish woman who was arrested for allegedly wearing her headscarf improperly and was later killed in custody. Thousands of Iranians have taken to the streets across the country in response to her death, demanding freedom and equality for women. Approximately 18,000 people have been arrested and over 450 killed. Among these are many writers, poets, musicians, and public intellectuals.
The Iranian government recognizes and fears the power of artists to encourage Iranians to rise up and join the protest movement, as well as their ability to draw global awareness to the atrocities that take place in Iran each day.
The Iranian Alliance of Motion Picture Guilds, for example, reported that over 100 Iranian artists—including filmmakers, actors, and musicians—have been detained, banned from working, or subjected to travel bans for supporting the protests or joining rallies. According to the United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, at least 40 Iranian artists, writers, poets, actors, filmmakers, and musicians have been arrested and jailed since the start of the protests. Women artists are at particular risk.
Artists targeted for their involvement in the protests in recent months include musician Shervin Hajipour, who was detained for six days when his song “Baraye” became a viral anthem for the protests; poet Mona Borzeoi, who was detained for reading a poem in support of the protests; and rap artist Toomaj Salehi, who was indicted on November 27 and could now face the death penalty for songs he wrote in support of the protests. The Iranian regime has also charged several artists and writers with crimes that carry a death sentence.
The crackdown on the demonstrations escalated tragically on December 8, when Iranian activist Mohsen Shekari became the first protester in the recent uprising to be executed by the Iranian government, after the Islamic Revolution Court reportedly found him guilty of moharebeh or “waging war against God.”
In the days since, Iranian actress, activist, and literary translator Taraneh Alidoosti has joined the ranks of persecuted artists after she was arrested and detained by Iranian authorities for criticizing Shekari’s execution. She is best known internationally for her role in The Salesman, which won the Best Foreign Language Film Award at the 2017 Academy Awards.
The Artists at Risk Connection (ARC), a project of PEN America, consistently receives more urgent requests for assistance from Iranian artists than from any other nationality, representing 12 percent of our total caseload since 2017.
ARC has received requests from Iranian singers, filmmakers, poets, sculptors, painters, graphic designers, authors—and the list goes on. Each has faced targeted persecution in retaliation for their creative expression. ARC has helped these artists, including Sahar, apply for emergency funding, legal assistance, relocation opportunities, and other forms of direct support from arts and human rights organizations around the world.
Many of the Iranian artists that ARC has worked with over the last five years have received mysterious phone calls, telling them to appear before the Iranian Ministry of Intelligence. Some have had their homes searched, their private spaces desecrated by security officials, their artistic equipment destroyed. Others have been incarcerated and often tortured, in a country notorious for its inhumane prisons and brutal treatment of political prisoners. Many have been forced to flee, often languishing in unsafe countries like Turkey and Iraq for months or even years as they struggle to relocate somewhere where they can live and work without fear. The Iranian Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance is responsible for reviewing and pre-approving nearly all forms of artistic expression in the country, from lyrics and music to screenplays and books. Movies, for example, must gain approval for shooting permits as well as distribution. The Ministry often imposes strict sanctions on artistic content, such as removing sexual content, altering scenes to fit with the Islamic Republic of Iran’s rigid morals and values, and imposing adherence to government dress codes. A movie scene where a woman removes her headscarf, for example, would not be permissible. Foreign films are also subject to review and censorship before they can be distributed within the country. Female artists, like Sahar, are at particular risk of persecution. All women in Iran are required to wear hijab in public and face discriminatory laws in the areas of marriage, family law, custody, and reproductive health. This discrimination also impacts women’s autonomy as artists and limits their access to cultural and artistic expression. Iranian women are not allowed to perform music in public and must request permission from a male family member before traveling for work or pleasure. Sahar was even prevented from making an account on the Ministry of Culture’s website, where artists request permission to publish their artistic work on the basis of her gender.
Samaneh Atef, an Iranian painter who has worked closely with ARC since 2019, said censorship in Iran often felt all-encompassing. “Censorship did not end with only one foreign film; everything was censored. We were raised in such a way that we were forced to censor our thoughts. We couldn't be our real selves,” she said. “The fear of losing my family, my friends, and my country often made me censor my work, but when the pain and suffering of the people of my country increased day by day, I could not be silent, I put my fears aside and started painting.”
Samaneh was forced to leave Iran in 2019 and relocated to France. Although Sahar is now safe in Germany, her work as an artist, musician, and human rights activist is not over. She misses Iran deeply—her family, her language, her culture—and wishes that she could return. “I would like to live in Iran,” she said. “I had a mission in my country.” Artistic expression is a core human right, which is being denied every day to Iranian artists, who are being silenced through intimidation, imprisonment, and worse. The UN Human Rights Council’s decision to launch a special investigation into Iran’s violent treatment against protesters is a welcome first step. It is critical for the UN’s investigation to include an emphasis on artists and writers as a group that is being specifically targeted and attacked on the basis of their power and cultural clout.
Iranian artists, like artists around the world, deserve to live in a world where they can create freely and without fear from persecution. It is our collective responsibility to stand in solidarity with them and fight for their voices to be heard.
Juliette Verlaque is a program assistant with PEN America's Artists at Risk Connection.

Iranian chess players Sara Khadem and Atousa Pourkashiyan compete in international tournament without hijab
Sky News/Tue, December 27, 2022
Two Iranian women chess players have competed in an international tournament without a hijab. Sara Khadem and Atousa Pourkashiyan, who are playing in the FIDE World Rapid and Blitz Chess Championships in Almaty, Kazakhstan, have followed other Iranian sportswomen in abandoning the headscarf. Photographs published on the International Chess Federation's Flickr feed show them with their hair showing and deep in concentration as they focus on a game. There was no comment on either woman's Instagram page. The hijab, which is mandatory under Iran's strict Islamic dress code, has become the focus of protests against the Iranian government. The unrest followed the death of Mahsa Amini, 22, who died in custody in September after being arrested by Iran's morality police for allegedly not wearing her hijab correctly. Ms Amini's cousin, Erfan Mortezaei, told Sky News she was "tortured and insulted" before she died. Women have played a prominent role in the protests, removing and in some cases burning their headscarves. In October, Iranian climber Elnaz Rekabi competed in South Korea without a headscarf, later saying she had done so unintentionally. In November, an Iranian archer said she did not notice her hijab falling during an awards ceremony in Tehran. A video appeared to show her allowing the headscarf to drop in what was widely interpreted as support for protesters. Ahead of Iran's first match in the Qatar World Cup recently, defender Ehsan Hajsafi spoke in apparent support of anti-government protesters at home. "They should know that we are with them. And we support them. And we sympathise with them regarding the conditions," the AEK Athens player said. "We have to accept the conditions in our country are not right and our people are not happy. We are here but it does not mean we should not be their voice or we should not respect them." The team did not sing the national anthem ahead of their first game, but did before the second and third. Earlier this month, Iran's attorney general said the morality police had been "closed".

Iran holds funerals for troops killed in 1980s Iraq war
Tue, December 27, 2022 at 6:23 a.m. EST
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP)/December 27, 2022
Thousands of Iranians on Tuesday attended state-organized funerals for 400 soldiers killed in the 1980s Iran-Iraq war. Iran's president, meanwhile, lashed out at the United States and its allies, accusing them of fomenting anti-government protests that have been underway in Iran for over three months. Caskets with the remains of “unidentified martyrs" were draped in Iranian flags and carried in mass processions. For many Iranian families, the conflict’s painful legacy drags on in a continuous waiting for news of loved ones still “missing.”In January, 250 Iranian soldiers killed in the 1980-1988 war were buried in similar ceremonies. Iran has been shaken by mass protests since mid-September over the death of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old Iranian Kurdish woman who died after being detained by the country’s morality police. The protests rapidly escalated into calls for the overthrow of Iran’s theocracy, established after the 1979 Islamic Revolution, marking one of the biggest challenges to the Iranian clerical rule in over four decades. At least 507 protesters have been killed and more than 18,500 people have been arrested, according to Human Rights Activists in Iran, a group that has closely monitored the unrest. Iranian authorities have not released figures for those killed or arrested. In the capital, Tehran, the last farewell on Tuesday honored 200 soldiers whose remains were recently recovered from the former battlefields along the Iraq-Iran border. Funerals were held for another 200 soldiers in other cities and towns across Iran. None of the soldiers have been identified and their remains were to be buried as “unknown martyrs” in mass funerals.
From outside of Tehran University, trucks piled high with the caskets made their way through the streets. Men and women in black thronged the coffins, many weeping for those lost in the bloody, stalemated war started by Iraq's Saddam Hussein and his Baath Party in 1980.
Iran and Iraq sporadically exchange remains of soldiers recovered from borderland territory that witnessed major combat in the war, which left more than a million casualties on both sides. Iranian state TV said the remains buried Tuesday were of troops killed in four battlefields, including in two locations inside Iraq. Along with the Iranian flag, many people also carried photographs of a top Iranian general, Qassem Soleimani, who was killed by a U.S. drone strike in January 2020 in Baghdad. President Ebrahim Raisi and other top officials attended the ceremonies and praised “the martyrs,” saying they help improve the nation’s sprit, according to media reports. Speaking at the ceremony, Raisi said efforts by the enemies of the nation — a reference to the U.S. and its allies — have sought to “pressure Iran during the recent protests" but have met with failure. Iranian authorities have blamed the unrest on their foreign adversaries, including the U.S. and Israel. “In recent riots, the arrogance (of the U.S. and its allies) was displayed in all its strength,” said Raisi, but “all pressures against the Islamic Republic were doomed to fail.” Earlier in December, Iran executed two prisoners, both 23 years old and charged in connection with the mass protests. The first was Mohsen Shekari, accused by an Iranian court of blocking a street in Tehran and attacking a member of the country’s security forces with a machete. The second was Majidreza Rahnavard, whose body was left hanging from a construction crane as a gruesome warning to others. Authorities alleged Rahnavard had stabbed two members of its paramilitary force. The executions prompted international outcry. Reportedly, dozens of others remain on the list for executions. Tuesday's funerals come just days ahead of the third anniversary of the Iranian military’s downing of a Ukrainian passenger plane with two surface-to-air missiles, killing all 176 people on board — a tragedy that ignited an outburst of unrest across Iran and further damaged its relations with the West.

France opens suicide probe after Iranian found dead in Rhône river
AFP/Tue, December 27, 2022
French authorities are investigating as suicide the drowning of an Iranian man in the south-eastern city of Lyon who had posted on social media that he would kill himself to draw attention to Iran’s crackdown on protests. Mohammad Moradi, 38, was found in the River Rhône that flows through the centre of Lyon late on Monday, a police source told French news agency AFP. Emergency services intervened but were unable to resuscitate him on the riverbank, the source added. Moradi had posted a video on Instagram saying he was about to drown himself to highlight the crackdown on protesters in Iran since the death in custody of Mahsa Amini, 22, after her arrest in Tehran for an alleged breach of the country’s strict dress code for women. “When you see this video, I will be dead,” Moradi said, in halting but comprehensible French. Lyon prosecutors said they had launched a probe to “verify the theory of suicide, in view in particular of the messages posted by the person concerned on social networks announcing his intention” to take his life. The incident has shocked the city, with a small rally to remember Moradi taking place on the banks of the Rhône on Tuesday. Mourners placed candles and wreaths on the riverside railings, an AFP correspondent said. According to several members of the Iranian community, Moradi was a history undergraduate and worked in a restaurant. He had lived in Lyon with his wife for three years. “His heart was beating for Iran, he could no longer bear the regime,” said Amini.

Lavrov: Ukraine must demilitarize or Russia will do it
KYIV, Ukraine (AP)/December 27, 2022
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on Tuesday warned that Ukraine must meet Moscow’s demand for “demilitarization” and “denazification,” as well as the removal of the military threat to Russia, otherwise “the Russian army (will) solve the issue.”Sergey Lavrov also accused the West of fueling the war in Ukraine to weaken Russia, and said that it depends on Kyiv and Washington how long the conflict, which started on Feb. 24 when Russia invaded Ukraine, will last. “As for the duration of the conflict, the ball is on the side of the (Kyiv) regime and Washington that stands behind its back,” Lavrov told the state Tass news agency. “They may stop senseless resistance at any moment.”Lavrov's comments come a day after Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba told the Associated Press in an interview that his government wants a summit to end the war but that he doesn’t anticipate Russia taking part. Kuleba said Ukraine wants a “peace” summit within two months with U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres acting as mediator. But he also said that Russia must face a war crimes tribunal before before his country directly talks with Moscow. Both statements illustrate how complex and difficult any attempts to end the war could be. Ukraine has said in the past that it wouldn't negotiate with Russia before the full withdrawal of its troops, while Moscow insists its military gains and the 2014 annexation of the Crimea Peninsula cannot be ignored.
Meanwhile, fierce fighting continued on Tuesday in the Russia-claimed Donetsk and Luhansk regions that recently have been the scene of the most intense clashes.
Ukraine’s Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar said that Russian forces are trying to encircle the city of Bakhmut in the Donetsk region, but without success. Heavy battles are also underway around the city of Kreminna in the Luhansk region, Luhansk governor Serhiy Haidai said. In the partially occupied southern Kherson region, Russian forces shelled Ukrainian-held areas 40 times on Monday, wounding one person, Ukrainian authorities said. The city of Kherson itself — which Ukraine retook last month in a major win — was targeted 11 times, said regional administrator Yaroslav Yanushevich.
Since its initial advances at the start of the war 10 months ago, Russia has made few major gains, often pummeling Ukraine's infrastructure instead and leaving millions without electricity, heating and hot water amid winter conditions.
Lavrov did not specify how the Russian army will achieve its goals of demilitarizing and de-nazifying Ukraine — which was Russia's stated goal when the invasion started in February. The reference to “denazification” comes from Russia’s allegations that the Ukrainian government is heavily influenced by radical nationalist and neo-Nazi groups. The claim is derided by Ukraine and the West. Lavrov warned further Western support for Ukraine could lead to direct confrontation. “We keep warning our adversaries in the West about the dangers of their course to escalate the Ukrainian crisis,” he said, adding that “the risk that the situation could spin out of control remains high.”“The strategic goal of the U.S. and its NATO allies is to win a victory over Russia on the battlefield to significantly weaken or even destroy our country,” he said.

Russian Lawmaker Who Slammed Putin’s War Dies After Falling From a Window
Allison Quinn/The Daily Beast/December 27/2022
A wealthy Russian businessman and regional lawmaker from Vladimir Putin’s United Russia party plunged to his death from a hotel window in India over the weekend—two days after a fellow Russian he was traveling with was found dead in the same hotel. Pavel Antov, 65, who topped Forbes’ list of the richest Russian lawmakers in 2019, thus joins a rapidly growing list of prominent Russian figures found dead in mysterious circumstances. The Russian outlet Zebra-TV reported that Antov’s lifeless body was found in front of his hotel in the eastern Indian state of Odisha on Saturday. Antov, a lawmaker from Russia’s Vladimir region and the founder and vice president of the hugely successful Vladimir Standard meat company, had been vacationing in India with a group of tourists when local police say he apparently fell out the window.
Over the summer, Antov condemned Russia’s airstrikes on Ukraine in a scathing statement posted to social media.
“The center of decision-making is today an ordinary residential building in the Shevchenkivskyidistrict… In truth, it’s extremely hard to call this anything other than terror,” the post read.
He later edited his post, calling the initial version a “misunderstanding” and “technical error” and stressing that he had “always supported the Russian president.”
The Legislative Assembly of the Vladimir Region confirmed Antov’s death, calling it a “heavy and irreparable loss” for the entire region. A source cited by Russia’s TASS news agency said the lawmaker had just turned 65 two days before his death.
Bizarrely, authorities at the Russian Consulate General in Kolkata say police don’t see any “criminal component” in the “tragic events” at the hotel. Vyacheslav Kartukhin, the vice speaker of the Vladimir regional parliament, used the same language to describe Antov’s death, chalking it up to “tragic circumstances” in a statement on Telegram.
Two days before Antov’s “tragic” plunge, a friend he was traveling with was found dead in the hotel where the group was staying. The friend, identified by Zebra-TV as 61-year-old businessman Vladimir Bydanov, was reportedly “discovered unconscious” in his room surrounded by empty wine bottles.
Russian state media reports that Bydanov’s suspected cause of death was a heart attack, while Antov’s was his fall out a window.
Russia Can Finally See That Putin’s ‘Days Are Numbered’
“We are in constant touch with the relatives of the dead Russians, local authorities, and police [in India],” Russia’s consul general in India, Alexei Idamkin, told TASS.
The bizarre deaths come just a few days after Alexander Buzakov, the director general of Russia’s Admiralty Shipyards, died “suddenly and tragically” at the age of 66. His cause of death remains unclear. A few weeks earlier, one-time real estate tycoon Dmitry Zelenov died suddenly while visiting friends in the French Riviera. At least 13 other prominent Russian figures, many of them involved in the oil and gas industry, have died in strange circumstances this year.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on December 27-28/2022/
Iran closer than ever to weapons-grade uranium, ex-top defense official says
Tal Schneider/The Times Of Israel/December 27/2022
Zohar Palti tells ToI Israel must make ‘serious decisions’ on whether it is willing to attack Iran’s nuclear plants without US backing, notes issue tangled up with other challenges
A former top defense official and Mossad intelligence chief warned Saturday that Iran was closer than ever to being able to produce weapons-grade uranium, and that Israel was capable of striking Tehran’s nuclear program even if not backed by the United States to do so. Zohar Palti, the former head of the Defense Ministry’s political-military bureau and former intelligence director in the Mossad, said Iran is mere days or weeks away from enriching uranium to military-grade levels required for the production of nuclear weapons.
Iran “is at a more advanced level than I can ever remember when it comes to uranium enrichment,” Palti told Times of Israel political correspondent Tal Schneider at an event in Ramat Hasharon.
They are days or weeks away from enriching uranium to 90 percent, which is military-grade,” he said.
Iran’s state media announced last month that it had begun producing enriched uranium at 60% purity at the country’s underground Fordo nuclear plant, in addition to enrichment to the same level at a plant in Natanz that it said had begun in 2019. Enrichment to 60% purity is one short, technical step away from weapons-grade levels of 90%. Nonproliferation experts have warned in recent months that Iran now has enough 60%-enriched uranium to reprocess into fuel for at least one nuclear bomb.
Palti noted that enrichment to such a level “does not mean they can immediately build a nuclear weapon.
“But it’s very bad, and we’ve never been closer to it,” he said. The comments from Palti, who retired from a 40-year career in Israel’s security establishment several months ago, marked one of the first times he has publicly addressed the Iranian issue since stepping down. Palti said Israel has the military capabilities to attack Iran’s nuclear plants, noting that it need not necessarily await an American green light, but would need to make “serious decisions” regarding whether it wants to lead such an offense.
“I am not implying that Israel is capable, I am saying it is,” he said, while stressing the importance of coordinating with Washington.
“One of the things that the Americans appreciate most is our ability to make our own decisions, to ensure our security,” he added, referencing Israeli strikes on nuclear facilities in Syria and Iraq that it had carried out alone without active American support.
Palti noted that the heated political atmosphere did not lend itself to the sort of societal cohesion needed for Israel to deal with a wartime scenario. “If we do reach such a scenario… it won’t be a matter of politics or religion. Lebanon has more than 100,000 rockets and Iran possesses precision-guided missiles. The Israeli home front will suffer… Israel will need to function as one fist,” he said.
He added that policymakers did not have the luxury of dealing with the Iranian issue as disconnected from other regional security concerns. “Iran is not a standalone issue,” Palti said. “Everything is connected. We can’t make progress on the Iranian issue without noticing what happens in our region, in the West Bank, on the issue of maintaining the status quo on the Temple Mount and protecting the rights of minorities.”
Palti warned against inflaming tensions atop the Temple Mount, saying that Israel’s relationship with Jordan is its greatest strategic asset. “The national security of each of the countries is intertwined,” he argued. It is in the interest of the State of Israel “for Jordan to be strong and unshakable. We have a strong and serious security system. The next IDF chief of staff, Herzi Halevy, will explain to the cabinet ministers what is at stake and what the meaning of violating the status quo on the Temple Mount is.”
He estimated that “incoming prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu won’t want to change the status quo on the Temple Mount” as well.

Biden Opens Door to China Sabotage in North Dakota
Gordon G. Chang/Gatestone Institute/December 27, 2022
The Biden administration just cleared a Chinese company to own 370 acres of land within 12 miles of Grand Forks Air Force Base in Grand Forks, North Dakota.
As a result, China will be able to use a proposed $700 million corn milling plant on the site to spy on military communications and even disrupt them. In Beijing, they must be shaking their heads in disbelief....
[T]he failure to include all military installations in the implementing regulations was a clear case of regulatory malpractice.
As a result of these enormous mistakes, Fufeng USA, a subsidiary of a Shandong province-based agribusiness giant, is, at least for the moment, free to build its wet corn milling and biofermentation plant in Grand Forks.
"The worst-case scenario involves active sabotage of operations at the Grand Forks facility. Should the U.S. and China end up in a shooting war over, say, Taiwan, Fufeng's property near the Air Force base could be used to send malicious signals to jam passing satellites or disrupt the operation of drones. We have made ourselves vulnerable on our own territory." — Brandon Weichert, author of Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, to Gatestone; December 2022.
President Joe Biden can use his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 to block the sale of the Grand Forks land and the building of the milling facility.
"[T]he most serious problem: The [CIFIUS] Committee is chaired by Treasury, which never saw a foreign investment it did not approve. "This means, as a practical matter, that an agency that basically doesn't give a damn about national security is entrusted with running a process that supposedly evaluates and protects national security." — Frank Gaffney, Vice Chair of the Committee on the Present Danger; to Gatestone, December 2022,
The CFIUS mandate must be broadened "to include any foreign investment that threatens our national security interests or, for that matter, other vital interests, in the face of unrestricted and especially economic warfare." — Frank Gaffney to Gatestone; December 2022
China's regime, which has declared a "people's war" on the U.S., uses investments to undermine America. In wartime — the Communist Party believes it is currently in such a struggle with America — Washington needs to prohibit all investments from China, especially ones near critical Air Force installations in North Dakota.
The Biden administration just cleared a Chinese company to own 370 acres of land within 12 miles of Grand Forks Air Force Base in North Dakota. China will be able to use a proposed $700 million corn milling plant on the site to spy on military communications and even disrupt them. Pictured: An RQ-4 Global Hawk drone lands at Grand Forks Air Force Base. (Image source: Johnny Saldivar/Wikimedia Commons)
The Biden administration just cleared a Chinese company to own 370 acres of land within 12 miles of Grand Forks Air Force Base in Grand Forks, North Dakota.
As a result, China will be able to use a proposed $700 million corn milling plant on the site to spy on military communications and even disrupt them. In Beijing, they must be shaking their heads in disbelief at the inability of the U.S. to protect some of its most sensitive communications.
The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States, a Treasury Department-led interagency task force, decided that the purchase was not a "covered transaction" within the meaning of Section 721 of the Defense Production Act of 1950. Therefore, CFIUS, as the agency is known, decided it did not have jurisdiction to block the land purchase.
CFIUS is correct in its statutory reading. As trade and investment expert Alan Tonelson told Gatestone, the task force "did not need more than five minutes to determine that it did not have the authority to stop the sale."
The Foreign Investment Risk Review Modernization Act of 2018 authorized CFIUS to review, among other things, purchases by foreign parties of land close to "specific airports, maritime ports, or military installations." Those military facilities are listed in an appendix to regulations.
"Grand Forks Air Force Base did not make the cut," Tonelson, who blogs at RealityChek, said. "The decision of the Congressional authors of the recent CFIUS reform to permit any foreign purchase of any land near any U.S. military installation was a clear case of legislative malpractice."
Moreover, the failure to include all military installations in the implementing regulations was a clear case of regulatory malpractice.
As a result of these enormous mistakes, Fufeng USA, a subsidiary of a Shandong province-based agribusiness giant, is, at least for the moment, free to build its wet corn milling and biofermentation plant in Grand Forks.
Fufeng USA said it was "pleased" with the decision. Chinese war planners must be ecstatic.
"The Chinese will now have the ability to conduct passive, persistent surveillance of both signals controlling experimental drones that are routinely tested at that USAF facility as well as signals that are routinely beamed to and from sensitive U.S. military satellites," said Brandon Weichert, author of Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, to this publication.
Yet that is not all. "The worst-case scenario involves active sabotage of operations at the Grand Forks facility," Weichert points out. "Should the U.S. and China end up in a shooting war over, say, Taiwan, Fufeng's property near the Air Force base could be used to send malicious signals to jam passing satellites or disrupt the operation of drones. We have made ourselves vulnerable on our own territory."
This is not just a theoretical concern. In the Chinese Communist Party's top-down system, no Chinese entity or individual can resist one of its demands.
Moreover, Articles 7 and 14 of China's National Intelligence Law of 2017 requires every Chinese party to spy upon receipt of an order to do so.
So, what to do?
"The fight is not over," said Jodi Carlson, a Grand Forks resident, to Hong Kong's South China Morning Post, referring to the Fufeng plant.
President Joe Biden can use his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 to block the sale of the Grand Forks land and the building of the milling facility.
For future cases, Tonelson says, "either the law needs to be rewritten immediately to bring such cases under CFIUS purview or the President should issue an executive order mandating this change."
There is a larger issue. As Weichert asks, "What other purchases by foreigners have slipped through the cracks?"
"As long as we're talking about fixing things, we ought to start with the most serious problem: The Committee is chaired by Treasury, which never saw a foreign investment it did not approve," Frank Gaffney, vice chair of the Committee on the Present Danger: China, told Gatestone. "This means, as a practical matter, that an agency that basically doesn't give a damn about national security is entrusted with running a process that supposedly evaluates and protects national security."
Consequently, CFIUS rarely turns down foreign purchases, "precious few" as he says.
Gaffney believes the CFIUS mandate must be broadened "to include any foreign investment that threatens our national security interests or, for that matter, other vital interests, in the face of unrestricted and especially economic warfare."
China's regime, for instance, has for decades launched broad-based assaults on America, and the current CFIUS framework is inadequate to deal with such threats.
Yes, America is strong because of its open system, which has allowed foreign parties to invest and strengthen the American economy. Yet China's regime, which has declared a "people's war" on the U.S., uses investments to undermine America. In wartime — the Communist Party believes it is currently in such a struggle with America — Washington needs to prohibit all investments from China, especially ones near critical Air Force installations in North Dakota.
*Gordon G. Chang is the author of The Coming Collapse of China, a Gatestone Institute distinguished senior fellow, and a member of its Advisory Board.
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قائمة بأسماء الذين عارضوا بوتين ووجدوا أموات
Here’s a list of Putin critics who’ve ended up dead
Jeremy Wilson,Taylor Ardrey/Business Insider/Tue, December 27, 2022
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/114460/heres-a-list-of-putin-critics-whove-ended-up-dead-%d9%82%d8%a7%d8%a6%d9%85%d8%a9-%d8%a8%d8%a3%d8%b3%d9%85%d8%a7%d8%a1-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%b0%d9%8a%d9%86-%d8%b9%d8%a7%d8%b1%d8%b6%d9%88%d8%a7/
Individuals linked to Putin’s government have died in violent or mysterious circumstances. Putin, a former lieutenant colonel of the KGB and ex-head of the FSB, has been suspected of assassinating critics. Here’s a list of people who have been critical of Putin and the Russian president is suspected of assassinating:
Pavel Antov – December 2022
Russian tycoon reportedly fell from a hotel window in Rayagada, India, on December 25 days after his 65th birthday.
The politician and millionaire criticized Putin’s war with Ukraine following a missile attack in Kyiv earlier this year on WhatsApp but quickly deleted the message and claimed that someone else wrote it, the BBC reported. “Our colleague, a successful entrepreneur, philanthropist Pavel Antov passed away,” Vice Speaker of the Regional Parliament Vyacheslav Kartukhin said on his Telegram channel, Russian media outlet TASS reported. “On behalf of the deputies of the United Russia faction, I express my deep condolences to relatives and friends.”
Ravil Maganov – September 2022
Putin and Maganov
Lukoil chairman Ravil Maganov had been openly critical of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, CNBC reported. Shortly after the war began, the oil company called for “the soonest termination of the armed conflict,” per the report. Maganov, similar to Antov, died mysteriously by falling out the window of a Moscow hospital in September, the outlet reported. However, a now-deleted statement from Lukoil said that the 67-year-old died “following serious illness.”
Dan Rapoport- August 2022
Businessman Dan Rapoport publicly condemned the Russia-Ukraine war on social media multiple times and emphasized his support for Ukraine, the Daily Beast reported. He was discovered dead in front of an apartment building in Washington, D.C, in August, according to the report. Police said he had a Florida driver’s license, a black hat, just over $2500, and orange flip-flops when he was found.
Mikhail Lesin- November 2016
Russian press minister Mikhail Lesin was found dead of “blunt force trauma to the head” in a Washington, DC, hotel room in November 2015..Lesin, who founded the English-language television network Russia Today (RT), was considering making a deal with the FBI to protect himself from corruption charges before his death, per the Daily Beast. For years, Lesin had been at the heart of political life in Russia and would have known a lot about the inner workings of the rich and powerful.
Boris Nemtsov
Boris Nemtsov- February 2015
Boris Nemtsov was a former deputy prime minister of Russia under Boris Yeltsin who went on to become a big critic of Putin — accusing him of being in the pay of oligarchs. He was shot four times in the back just yards from the Kremlin as he walked home from a restaurant.
Boris Berezovsky- March 2013
Boris Berezovsky was a Russian oligarch who fled to Britain after he fell out with Putin. During his exile he threatened to bring down Putin by force. He was found dead at his Berkshire home in March 2013 in an apparent suicide, although an inquest into his death recorded an open verdict. Berezovsky was found dead inside a locked bathroom with a ligature around his neck. The coroner couldn’t explain how he had died. The British police had, on several occasions, investigated alleged assassination attempts against him.
Natalia Estemirova- July 2009
Natalia Estemirova was a journalist who sometimes worked with Politkovskaya.
She specialized in uncovering human-rights abuses carried out by the Russian state in Chechnya.
She was abducted from outside her home and later found in nearby woodland with gunshot wounds to her head. No one has been convicted of her murder. Stanislav Markelov and Anastasia Baburova- January 2009.
Human-rights lawyer Stanislav Markelov represented Politkovskaya and other journalists who had been critical of Putin.
He was shot by a masked gunman near the Kremlin. Journalist Anastasia Baburova, who was walking with him, was also shot when she tried to help him.
Alexander Litvinenko- November 2006
Alexander Litvinenko was a former KGB agent who died three weeks after drinking a cup of tea at a London hotel that had been laced with deadly polonium-210. A British inquiry found that Litvinenko was poisoned by FSB agents Andrei Lugovoi and Dmitry Kovtun, who were acting on orders that had “probably approved by Mr Patrushev and also by President Putin.”Litvinenko was very critical of Putin, accusing him of, among other things, blowing up an apartment block and ordering the murder of journalist Anna Politkovskaya.
Anna Politkovskaya- October 2006
Anna Politkovskaya was a Russian journalist who was critical of Putin. In her book “Putin’s Russia,” she accused Putin of turning his country into a police state. She was murdered by contract killers who shot her at point-blank range in the lift outside her flat.
Five men were convicted of her murder, but the judge found that it was a contract killing, with $150,000 paid by “a person unknown.”
Paul Klebnikov- July 2004
Paul Klebnikov was the chief editor of the Russian edition of Forbes. He had written about corruption and dug into the lives of wealthy Russians. He was killed in a drive-by shooting in an apparent contract killing, according to the Committee to Protect Journalists.
Sergei Yushenkov- April 2003
Sergei Yushenkov was a Russian politician who was attempting to prove the Russian state was behind the bombing of an apartment block. He was killed in an assassination by a single shot to the chest just hours after his political organization, Liberal Russia, had been recognized by the Justice Ministry as a party, the BBC reported.

Zelensky in Washington… Looking for the US
Nadim KoteichRobert Ford/Asharq Al Awsat/December 27/2022
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s trip to Washington and his historic speech in Congress have rekindled hope in an alliance of democracies. To the centrist American elites from both parties who share this aspiration, his visit indicates that such an alliance is possible and that faith in cooperation among democracies has not waned, at least not to the extent that the facts on the ground seemed to suggest.
In his speech, Zelensky sought to simultaneously draw the sympathy of the United States and incite it to action, especially when he told a US representative that “so much in the world depends on you.”
Political writer David Fromm, a senior editor at “The Atlantic” who used to be a speechwriter for former US President George W. Bush, has suggested this was the most significant and compelling statement in his speech. Indeed, it comes at a time when it is evident that the idea of cooperation between democracies is declining and when confidence in democracies within the democratic world could well be declining even more steeply.
Zelensky’s speech was a call to arms and a reminder of past US commitments more than it was an objective reading of the degree of American unity regarding Ukraine and the degree to which this is a matter of consensus. There are fears that support for Ukraine could remain open-ended chronological and limitless financially, making it impossible for those supporting Ukraine to meet the country’s needs. This is the outcome Zelensky dreads and Russian President Vladimir Putin is betting on.
Zelensky’s speech reminded me of what Henry Kissinger wrote about French President Charles de Gaulle in his latest book, “Leadership.”
In the summer of 1940, de Gaulle was a mere Under Secretary of State for War and National Defense when he fled from Bordeaux to London after the French prime minister resigned, the government withdrew from the capital, and it became apparent that an armistice agreement with Hitler announcing France’s surrender had been imminent.
In London, this little-known officer and junior minister would speak to the spirit of the French nation, calling on his people to form a French resistance movement. And he only did so after seeking the permission of British Prime Minister Winston Churchill.
Kissinger claims that de Gaulle’s strategy was to use his word to create an alternative reality, hoping to arouse the desire to put his words into action shared by his listeners. In a speech he gave on June 14, 1944, in the French town of Bayeux, which the British had seized from the French authorities collaborating with Hitler a week prior, de Gaulle addressed the crowd as though it was the French resistance movement that had liberated the town, deliberately avoiding mention of the British and American forces, who had in fact liberated it.
This strategy peaked a few weeks later when de Gaulle gave his victory speech in Paris. Once again, he did mention the role that the Allies had played in liberating France, not out of ingratitude but out of the new French president’s desire to give his nation its self-confidence back by turning what had largely been an Anglo-American victory into a French one.
Like de Gaulle, Zelensky tried to create an alternative with his words about the united stance of the liberal and democratic world. He also framed his country’s war as a global conflict, which aligns with US President Biden’s view on the matter. Indeed, Biden expressed this view in his National Security Strategy, which asserted that the struggle currently underway in the world is between democracies and dictatorships.
Zelensky spoke to the American ideological spirit. Many people seem to overlook the fact that the American people are ideological deep down. They have embraced the creed of freedom, which is fundamental to their national identity.
However, will the war in Ukraine and the reactions to it be enough to rebuild confidence in the project for an alliance of democracies? Will Zelensky’s speech be enough to erase the effects of nationalist slogans like “America first” and others that the Democrats are putting into action verbatim today, just as the Republicans had in the past, albeit under different pretenses?
Answering this question is not easy. The world is currently in the early stages of a course whose trajectory is currently extremely premature to predict. However, there are many serious indications that the world, which needs America to play its traditional leadership role in defending freedom and global security, does not trust the US. Indeed, there is reason to believe that perhaps America does not trust itself with these responsibilities.
French President Emmanuel Macron, who has become the European leader most critical of the US, recently called on European countries to play a more decisive and robust role within NATO and reduce their security dependence on the United States. He claimed that a stronger Europe would allow the continent to become more autonomous within the military alliance, acting “inside NATO, with NATO but also not depending on NATO,” adding that “Europe needs to gain more autonomy on technology and defense capabilities, including from the US.”
The French president has previously complained that the costs of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict were not being shared fairly, as Europe has suffered heavy losses while the US has profited. A few weeks ago, Macron criticized US climate policies, saying that the subsidies they offer are “super aggressive” toward European companies, and he also complained that US measures to combat inflation harmed European companies.
Britain joined the chorus of European criticism of US environmental subsidies, warning that these protectionist measures will undermine electric car and battery manufacturers and other renewable energy sources in the UK.
Washington’s allies in the Middle East mistrust the US just as much as its European allies. The so-called “liberal free world” needs Washington because of their shared interest in safeguarding the values they share, while its allies in the Middle East need it because of their shared interest in safeguarding regional security and stability, which, in turn, contributes to ensuring global security.
In the best of cases, Zelensky’s visit, his speech, the reactions to it, and the nostalgia for the global role of the US speak to the desire of various factions to see Washington assume its responsibilities in leading the world. It seems that the US is on its own path as it looks for new structures to underpin its economy, society, and politics, as well as to contain the clash of identities. These take precedence over foreign policy and thus its role on the world stage since the First World War.
America is on one course, and the world is on another. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine is just one test facing humanity in its entirety as new rules, relationships, and interests take form.

3 Predictions for American Politics in 2023
Robert Ford/Asharq Al Awsat/December 27/2022
Making predictions about American politics and foreign policy in 2023 is not easy. However, some trends are clear, and if we watch a few key developments, we can better anticipate the coming year’s events better.
First, although the Republican Party failed to gain the majority in the American Senate, it will control the House of Representatives. And here is the first key development to watch: if the Republican representatives in early January elect Kevin McCarthy as leader of the House of Representatives, President Joe Biden will face a constant headache.
McCarthy is from the right-wing of the Republican Party that rejects any negotiation or compromise with Biden and the Democratic Party. Already McCarthy’s allies are criticizing Republican senators who cooperated with the Democratic Party on the new 2023 budget. It is very possible that the House of Representatives under the leadership of McCarthy will force the American government to suspend many of its operations as the two parties argue about the 2024 budget. (This suspension will not include the Pentagon.)
And in the meantime, we will see the House of Representatives start investigations of the business activities of Biden’s son Hunter, the Biden administration’s handling of the immigration and border controls and also the withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021. It won’t be enjoyable for many in Biden’s cabinet.
Because Biden likely will face a total Republican blockade of his domestic agenda, he will focus more on foreign policy issues. Most of attention of the Biden administration’s defense and diplomatic leaders will be on Ukraine. They will work towards two goals: first, to maintain support for Ukraine despite unease among some European countries and second, to contain the economic damage from the war.
There is no other way to explain the visit of Brett McGurk, Biden’s top Middle East advisor, to Algeria earlier this month unless he wanted to speak about natural gas exports to Europe and building an international consensus about Russia’s invasion. McGurk was not there to discuss the Western Sahara, for example.
The Biden team is cautious about direct confrontation with Russia. They want a diplomatic settlement and they will have a problem with conservative Republicans in the House of Representatives who are tired of giving aid to Ukraine.
From there, the next priority will be the Biden administration efforts to contain China, especially by means of strengthening alliances. Biden and his secretaries of state and defense will meet many Asian leaders in 2023 to talk about strategies to deter Chinese military and cyberattacks.
Finally, the Biden administration will face the new right-wing Israeli government and the Middle East. Being frank brings comfort: this is not the White House of George Bush the father with his friend and Secretary of State James Baker.
In 1990 Baker publicly told Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir to call the White House when Israel was ready for peace with the Palestinians; he even reminded Shamir sarcastically of the White House telephone number. In 1991 George Bush the father decided to confront Israel’s friends in Washington and delay financial aid to Israel until Shamir agreed to suspend building in Israeli settlements.
Those days are finished. Biden will not risk paying the political price that Bush had to pay.
In addition, and in part due to Israeli pressure, the Biden administration will wrestle with the Iranian nuclear program. Biden last week said the 2015 deal is dead, but he “prefers not to say it.” Why not? The reason is that he hopes to find a diplomatic strategy to delay undertaking a military strike.
We will have to watch Iranian actions. If they restart some cooperation with international monitors of their nuclear facilities and avoid building a bomb, Biden will incline away from an attack. However, if Iran moves forward to assembling a nuclear bomb, and of course if it tests a bomb, the pressure in Washington on Biden will be huge.
Biden regrets his 2002 vote in favor of the Iraq war, and he knows that a few military airstrikes will not solve the problem of the Iranian nuclear program and regional ambitions. What Iran chooses to do, or chooses not to do, will determine Biden’s response.
My last prediction is easier: by the end of 2023 the American presidential election campaign will be underway. Donald Trump will suffer in the early competition against Florida Governor DeSantis DeSantis.
Already opinion polls show support for Trump in the Republican Party is diminishing, especially after Trump’s comment that perhaps the American Constitution should be suspended because of purported fraud in the 2020 election. And Joe Biden will announce that he will aim for reelection even though most Democratic Party voters would prefer a different candidate.
We can expect a bitter political war in Washington by the end of the year.
*Robert Ford is a former US ambassador to Syria and Algeria and a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute for Near East Policy in Washington