English LCCC Newsbulletin For
Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For December 15/2022
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news
The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/aaaanewsfor2021/english.december15.22.htm
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Bible Quotations For today
‘For who has known the mind of the Lord? Or who has been his
counsellor?’ ‘Or who has given a gift to him, to receive a gift in return?’For
from him and through him and to him are all things.
Letter to the Romans 11/25-36: “So that you may
not claim to be wiser than you are, brothers and sisters, I want you to
understand this mystery: a hardening has come upon part of Israel, until the
full number of the Gentiles has come in. And so all Israel will be saved; as it
is written, ‘Out of Zion will come the Deliverer; he will banish ungodliness
from Jacob.’‘And this is my covenant with them, when I take away their sins.’As
regards the gospel they are enemies of God for your sake; but as regards
election they are beloved, for the sake of their ancestors; for the gifts and
the calling of God are irrevocable. Just as you were once disobedient to God but
have now received mercy because of their disobedience, so they have now been
disobedient in order that, by the mercy shown to you, they too may now receive
mercy. For God has imprisoned all in disobedience so that he may be merciful to
all. O the depth of the riches and wisdom and knowledge of God! How unsearchable
are his judgements and how inscrutable his ways! ‘For who has known the mind of
the Lord? Or who has been his counsellor?’ ‘Or who has given a gift to him, to
receive a gift in return?’For from him and through him and to him are all
things. To him be the glory for ever. Amen.”
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese &
Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on December
14-15/2022
Israel struck Iranian arms convoy along Syrian-Iraqi border - IDF chief
Israel prevented Iran from deploying 'hundreds of missiles' in Lebanon, Syria
EU allocates €229 mn for reforms, development in Lebanon
UK commits further £13 million to Lebanese Armed Forces
Mikati denies seeking to hold another cabinet session
Report: Nasrallah to meet with Aoun and Bassil
Hezbollah sources ridicule 'Israeli campaign' targeting Beirut airport
Report: Bassil would have attended Berri's dialogue under one condition
Bou Saab after meeting Berri: No dialogue before end of the year
Jumblat says dialogue welcome across continents but not in Lebanon
Lebanon takes aim at New Year ‘celebratory gunfire’
Iran Occupies Lebanon via Proxy, But the Lebanese Still Have Agency/Hanin
Ghaddar/Hoover Institution’s The Caravan/December 14/2022
The Lebanese are Living the Dream/Tony Badran/Hoover Institution's The
Caravan/December 14/2022
America’s Lebanese fantasy hits a road-bump/Tony Badran/Al Arabiya/December
14/2022
Titles For The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on December
14-15/2022
Text & Video/Kurds Against the Iranian Regime: Internal and Regional
Implications/Abdullah Mohtadi, Shukriya Bradost, David Pollock/Washington
Institute/December 14/2022
Iran likely to be ousted from U.N. women's body
Iran Ousted from UN Women's Body after US Campaign
Iran Nuclear Chief Says IAEA Officials to Visit Tehran Soon
The Young Iranians Facing Death Penalty over Protests
400 Protesters Jailed over Tehran Protests
Iran Pushes Global List of Imprisoned Journalists to Record High
China Sends Official Xi Sidelined on Trip to Protest-Hit Iran
Germany's Scholz says EU firmly on Ukraine's side
Russia launches drone attack on Kyiv, Ukraine hails air defences
Ukraine: Russian strikes thwarted, wreckage hits buildings
'Factional Tensions' Hit Russia's Military Chiefs Over Ukraine War, Says UK
Intelligence
UK intelligence is assessing rumors that Putin fired his top general, which
Russia has angrily denied
Scholz says Balkans joining EU is in Germany's interest
Russian defector says training consisted of being given a weapon, a target and
5,000 bullets. Going to the front line left many broken.
U.S. kills Islamic State officials during raid in Syria
Hamas Marks Anniversary, Predicts Confrontation with Israel
Israeli jurists warn against Ben-Gvir’s bid for more powers over police
French prosecutors search Macron's party offices
EU Says Committed to Building Partnership with Sudan
El-Sisi to discuss trade, investment ties with world leaders in US
Titles For The
Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published
on December
14-15/2022
The Extremists the Biden Administration Does Not See/Bassam Tawil/Gatestone
Institute./December 14, 2022
Iran Is a Rogue State/Tariq Al-Homayed/Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper/December,
14/2022 -
Khamenei in Ukraine!/Hazem Saghieh/Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper/December, 14/2022
Institutionalized Discrimination: 1.1 Million Mosques vs 5,200 Churches in
Egypt/Coptic Solidarity/Raymond Ibrahim/December, 14/2022
Political divisions a major threat to Iranian regime/Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab
News/December 14, 2022
Text & Video/Kurds Against the Iranian Regime: Internal and Regional
Implications/Abdullah Mohtadi, Shukriya Bradost, David Pollock/Washington
Institute/December 14/2022
on December
14-15/2022
Israel struck Iranian arms convoy along Syrian-Iraqi
border - IDF chief
Jerusalem Post/December 14/2022
Kohavi says IDF had "perfect intelligence" to hit "Truck Number 8" out of a 25
truck caravan.
Israel struck a convoy of trucks carrying Iranian weapons along the Syrian-Iraqi
border last month, IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Aviv Kohavi confirmed on
Wednesday. Without specifying the exact timing, it appeared clear that he was
referring to an attack within Syria, next to the Iraqi border, which the Wall
Street Journal and various other media outlets attributed to Israel in early
November, but which Israel did not take responsibility for at the time.
According to reports at the time, the caravan was moving Iranian weapons, likely
including powerful missiles, from Iraq to Syria and around a dozen Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps members and other Iranian-associated forces were
killed.
Israel prevented Iran from deploying 'hundreds of
missiles' in Lebanon, Syria
Naharnet/December 14, 2022
Israeli army chief Aviv Kohavi on Wednesday announced that Israel has prevented
Iran from deploying hundreds of missiles in Lebanon and Syria, while announcing
that Israel was behind a Nov. 8 attack on an Iranian convoy that had entered
Syria from Iraq. "As a result of many years of activity, the Iranian vision --
which was supposed to include at this time hundreds of surface-to-surface and
surface-to-air missiles in the Syrian and Lebanese arenas – has been completely
disrupted,” Kohavi said. “It was supposed to include tens of thousands of
militiamen -- at their peak there were indeed tens of thousands -- and a new
Hezbollah organization in the south of the Golan Heights. These three things
have been significantly disrupted… The level of deterrence against the Iranians
has increased significantly,” Kohavi added. And in a rare acknowledgment, Kohavi
took responsibility for an Israeli air force attack against an Iranian “weapons
convoy” on the Syria-Iraq border. "Out of 25 trucks, truck number 8 was the
truck with the weapons,” the Israeli commander added.
EU allocates €229 mn for reforms, development in Lebanon
Naharnet/December 14, 2022 t
The European Union has allocated this year €229 million to reinforce reforms and
economic development in Lebanon.
In a statement, the delegation of the EU to Lebanon said that the EU "continues
to support Lebanon and its people during challenging socio-economic conditions
and allocates this year €229 million to reinforce much needed reforms and
economic development."It added that several priorities were identified for this
new financial package. The first priority is "to enhance good governance and
support reforms." "In this context, the European Union will assist Lebanon in
implementing reforms related to public administration focusing on integrity,
transparency, and accountability, in line with the opportunities identified by
the recent IMF Staff-Level Agreement," the statement said, adding that the EU's
assistance will target civil service reform, public financial management reform
and access to public information. Moreover, the European Union will work with
state and civil society actors to empower Lebanese women and contribute to
gender equality. The European Union said it will help increase women’s
leadership and participation in political and public arenas and work on creating
an environment for better representation of women in the workforce. "Being
committed to supporting Lebanon on its reform agenda, the European Union will
support the implementation of legislation to protect women from all forms of
violence," the statement said. It went on to say that "under the priority of
promoting a green and sustainable recovery, the European Union will support
Lebanon's green agenda and transition to renewable energy." The European Union
will fund energy efficiency equipment in public sector buildings and contribute
to a more efficient provision of public services. It will also focus on
"increasing the competitiveness of Lebanese industries, in particular the
agro-food sector, by fostering entrepreneurship, innovation and technology
transfers for sustainable energy solutions." In addition, the statement said
that the EU will continue to provide significant assistance to vulnerable
Lebanese and Syrian refugees and help them accessing much needed essential
services in social protection, education, health, and water provision.
"The European Union remains committed to supporting Lebanon and its people to
move toward the recovery and stability they deserve," the statement concluded.
UK commits further £13 million to Lebanese Armed Forces
Naharnet/December 14, 2022
The British Ambassador to Lebanon, Hamish Cowell, has announced a £13 million
commitment to “support the Lebanese Armed Forces’ (LAF) resilience from 2022
till 2025 in a Memorandum of Understanding signed with LAF Commander in Chief
General Joseph Aoun,” the British embassy said. Cowell, with the U.S.
Ambassador, Dorothy Shea, and the Canadian Ambassador, Stephanie McCollum, met
General Aoun during the High Level Steering Committee to discuss security on the
Lebanese-Syrian border. “The joint border project has reinforced the authority
of the Lebanese state along its land border with Syria where Four Land Border
Regiments have been deployed from the North in Arida to the south in Jebel Al
Sheikh,” the embassy said in a statement. Following the meeting, Ambassador
Cowell said: “This MOU demonstrates our commitment to continuing our support to
and cooperation with the Lebanese Armed Forces. Since 2009, the UK has committed
over £87 million allowing the LAF to optimize its capabilities, develop and
modernize. We are proud of our contribution to building the LAF’s reputation as
a respected, professional armed forces able to defend Lebanon and provide
security along its border with Syria.”“It was a privilege to meet the Commander
of the Lebanese Armed Forces, General Joseph Aoun, and attend my first High
Level Steering Committee. The Lebanese Armed Forces play a pivotal role in
safeguarding Lebanon and its people,” Cowell added.
“I am hugely impressed by the courage that the men and women of the Lebanese
Armed Forces show,” he said.
Mikati denies seeking to hold another cabinet session
Naharnet/December 14, 2022
Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati on Wednesday denied a media report
claiming that he is seeking anew to convene the caretaker cabinet, following the
latest session that sparked political and sectarian tensions in the country.
Describing the report published in al-Akhbar newspaper as “fabricated,” Mikati’s
press office said the premier does not intend to convene the caretaker cabinet
anytime soon. Mikati is “continuing his contacts and consultations with the
ministers to agree on the nature of the governmental work during the coming
period, and he intends to call for a consultative meeting with all ministers
before the end of the week,” the press office added. Al-Akhbar had reported
earlier in the day that Hezbollah had “concerns” that Mikati might call for
another cabinet session and that the party informed the premier of its rejection
of any such move.
Report: Nasrallah to meet with Aoun and Bassil
Naharnet/December 14, 2022
Hezbollah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah will meet with ex-president Michel Aoun
and Free Patriotic Movement leader Jebran Bassil upon the latter’s return from
Qatar, informed ministerial sources said. The meeting will likely be held within
a week to “put an end to the crisis between the two parties,” the sources told
ad-Diyar newspaper in remarks published Wednesday. “Aoun has intervened in a bid
to melt the political ice and clear the cloudy atmosphere, because it is
forbidden to continue the dispute with the ally,” the sources added, noting that
“this is the first time that the disagreements between the two parties reach
this level.” Tensions had surged between the two allies in the wake of
Hezbollah’s attendance of a caretaker cabinet session boycotted by the FPM.
Hezbollah argued that the session was necessary to approve urgent matters
related to people’s affairs as the FPM called the meeting unconstitutional and
an attack on the president’s powers amid an ongoing presidential vacuum.
Hezbollah sources ridicule 'Israeli campaign' targeting
Beirut airport
Naharnet/December 14, 2022
The latest “Israeli claims” that Hezbollah might bring in arms through Beirut
airport are laughable and baseless, sources close to Hezbollah have said.
“Hezbollah has already transferred the precision missiles and their requirements
by land and the mission has been accomplished, as had been declared by Sayyed
Hassan Nasrallah, despite the continuous Israeli attacks and surveillance,” the
sources told al-Joumhouria newspaper in remarks published Wednesday. “The
Lebanese state’s border facilities, whether aerial or maritime, are not included
in Hezbollah’s calculations and it does not use them in the arms transfer
operations which require extreme care and a security sensitivity that cannot be
guaranteed in public facilities, where there is the risk of exposure and
infiltration,” the sources added. The sources also noted that one of the main
reasons that pushed Hezbollah to engage in the war in Syria was to “keep the
supply route to the resistance in Lebanon open.”“How can Hezbollah exploit
Beirut’s airport to obtain arms from Iran amid the deployment of security
agencies and the eyes of the U.S. intelligence in it?” the sources wondered.
Israel’s Channel 12 has recently reported that Israel is tracking a new Iranian
attempt to establish a weapons smuggling route via civilian airline flights to
Beirut. The network said Tehran is using the airline Meraj, which recently
started flying a direct route between the two nations’ capitals. The unsourced
report said the new smuggling route is a result of Israel’s activities to thwart
Iranian weapons transfers via Damascus. It also said that Israel has “warned
that it could carry out strikes at Beirut’s international airport to thwart
weapons deliveries as it has done in Damascus.”Quoting unnamed sources, the
Saudi-owned al-Hadath television has reported that the Iranian airline, which
has alleged ties to Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, might transfer arms and
sensitive equipment to Hezbollah, noting that the air company’s first flight had
taken place on November 14. The Israeli Intelli Times blog identified the Meraj
aircraft flying between Tehran and Beirut as EP-AJI. Flight tracking from
Flightradar24 shows that the aircraft has made a number of flights to Beirut
recently, “turning its transponder on over Baghdad and over Syria, but keeping
it off in much of Iraq and Iran,” Israeli media reports said.
Report: Bassil would have attended Berri's dialogue under
one condition
Naharnet/December 14, 2022
The Free Patriotic Movement had not taken a final decision over attending a
dialogue that Speaker Nabih Berri had suggested as a replacement to Thursday's
presidential election session, FPM sources said Wednesday. The sources told al-Jadeed
that FPM chief Jebran Bassil had a condition, to address the dispute over the
latest cabinet session. But Berri dismissed Bassil's demand and decided not to
call for dialogue, the media outlet said.
Bou Saab after meeting Berri: No dialogue before end of the
year
Naharnet/December 14, 2022
Deputy Speaker Elias Bou Saab met Wednesday with Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri
in Ain el-Tineh. After the meeting, Bou Saab said that it is not likely for a
dialogue to be held before the end of the year. He added that time for dialogue
and consultations is not indefinite, and that he has sensed from Berri that
"there will be more serious work, starting next year."Bou Saab considered that
dialogue is the only way out of the current crisis. Berri had announced last
week that he would turn Thursday’s presidential election session into a dialogue
if the blocs agree to such a move, but later called for a regular election
session, after the Lebanese Forces said in a statement that they would not
attend such a dialogue.
Jumblat says dialogue welcome across continents but not in
Lebanon
Naharnet/December 14, 2022
Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblat said Wednesday that "we accept
transcontinental dialogue but we reject it at home."In a statement on social
media, Jumblat said that we accept dialogue across continents and through
football, but not in Lebanon. "We may reach China if America agrees, France
gives its blessing, and Saudi Arabia approves," Jumblat went on to say. "But we
reject it in Lebanon," he added. Berri had announced last week that he would
turn Thursday’s presidential election session into a dialogue if the blocs agree
to such a move. But later this week, dialogue was cancelled, after the Lebanese
Forces and the Free Patriotic Movement refused to participate in the dialogue.
Lebanon takes aim at New Year ‘celebratory gunfire’
Najia Houssari/Arab News/December 14, 2022
BEIRUT: New Year’s Eve festivities in Lebanon may not go off with quite the same
bang as in previous years if the government has its way. Lebanese who enjoy
ringing in the new year with celebratory gunfire are in the government’s sights
amid a security crackdown, with one minister taking aim at what he described as
“delinquent and criminal acts.” Caretaker Interior Minister Bassam Mawlawi
announced a security plan to be implemented during the holidays all across
Lebanon. “The security forces have the right to act automatically to confront
any delinquent or criminal act, and the measures will include protecting Rafic
Hariri International Airport,” he warned. On Wednesday, the Central Security
Council, chaired by Mawlawi, met security and judicial leaders. Mawlawi said:
“We will try to limit celebratory gunfire on New Year’s Eve, and we will tighten
security around the airport to prevent random gunfire.”
Security and military services will enforce a ban on carrying weapons, the
minister added. “We will not accept chaos and instability,” he said. Mawlawi
said that extra measures will also be put in place to crack down on smuggling at
the airport. New Year’s Eve festivities in Lebanon in recent years have been
marred by mayhem and injury. Last year, a Syrian refugee was killed by a stray
bullet when celebrations got out of hand. The latest government intervention
comes after Moroccan football fans, supposedly from the Muslim-majority Tariq
Al-Jadidah area in Beirut, rode motorcycles into Sassine Square in the
Christian-majority Ashrafieh district of Beirut on Saturday, raising Palestinian
flags and chanting religious slogans.
Troops were called in to stop the volatile situation escalating. The Council of
Maronite Bishops met on Wednesday and issued a statement, saying: “We denounce
security chaos and what happened in Sassine Square.”The statement called on
security forces to take preemptive measures to avoid any future friction.
Meanwhile, the army said that units made a number of arrests and seized military
weapons, rifles and ammunition following raids in the Bekaa and Lebanon North
regions. A pickup truck loaded with drugs was seized at an army checkpoint in
the Hermel area, a smuggling hotspot.
Maj. Gen. Abbas Ibrahim, director general of General Security, recently warned
of the worsening security outlook, saying: “The social situation will implode
sooner or later. This must be remedied with intensive and serious work.” Tough
security measures and crackdowns come against the backdrop of a three-year
crisis that has plagued Lebanon, a situation exacerbated by a growing political
inability to elect a president and the failure to approve the capital control
bill. Amid an economic collapse and with the national currency losing over 90
percent of its value, many middle-class Lebanese have fallen below the poverty
line. Human Rights Watch warned in a statement that growing numbers of families
are unable to secure their social and economic rights, with those on limited
incomes bearing the brunt of the financial crisis. HRW urged the Lebanese
government and World Bank to take urgent measures and invest in a rights-based
social protection system that guarantees a decent standard of living for all.
The EU Delegation to Lebanon on Wednesday announced a €229 million ($243
million) aid allocation to promote reforms and economic development. Funding
will be directed at reforming the civil service, public financial management and
access to information. The delegation said that Syrian refugees in Lebanon will
continue to receive EU support in social protection, education, health care and
water provision.
حنين غدار من موقع مؤسسة هوفر القافلة: إيران تحتل لبنان
بالوكالة، لكن قوة القرار لا تزال ملك اللبنانيين
Iran Occupies Lebanon via Proxy, But the Lebanese Still Have Agency
Hanin Ghaddar/Hoover Institution’s The Caravan/December 14/2022
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/114045/114045/
Lebanon as a state entity all but collapsed some time ago. It’s not official
yet, and no one seems ready to declare it a failed state, but the government
institutions are practically broken and nonfunctional. The economic crisis that
has led to the depreciation of the lira by more than ninety percent meant that
the salaries of public servants are not even enough for transportation to and
from work. Many vital public institutions, such as the Lebanese University, the
Electricity Company, service ministries and municipalities, are barely
functioning. The crisis had caused a serious exodus from civil service across
the board. The core of the state institutions – its public service – is gone.
Lebanon has never seen a collapse of this magnitude – even during the civil war.
And the dreadful part is that this is not the worst scenario. More deterioration
of the economy, depreciation of the lira, and a serious social explosion are on
the horizon. Stopping this collapse and starting the long and thorny road to
rehabilitate the Lebanese state requires more than reforms. Yes, reforms to the
economy, banking, fiscal, and security systems are vital; however, we all know
by now that none of this will happen as long as an armed Hezbollah is overseeing
this decline.
This sudden and severe collapse did not happen because of corruption alone, and
it will not be completely resolved by economic and financial reforms. Corruption
and a weak state apparatus are the core of Hezbollah’s policy. Reforming certain
sectors, electing a president, or forming another government that looks a little
better than the last, all are important steps to maintain a sense of agency;
nevertheless, the clash is not between two Lebanese political parties. It is a
clash between a kidnapper and a hostage
It is as a hostage that Iran views Lebanon – there’s no need to have a
socio-economic policy for Lebanon – or for Iraq or Syria for that matter. On the
contrary, a prosperous Lebanon means a stronger state, and that’s not in the
interest of Iran and Hezbollah – a hostage needs to stay weak and frightened.
What matters is how to maintain and strengthen Iran’s grip on these countries,
whether their citizens stay, leave, or die trying. In this context, the
institutional tools that Lebanon is using to show the world that it is still
functioning as a democracy have been rendered worthless by Hezbollah’s arms, or
threat of armed force. In the formula of ballots vs. bullets, the latter is
always louder and more heard.
The Lebanese people decided to challenge this status quo on October 17, 2019,
when people from all sects and regions took to the streets to say no to
corruption, the political system, and for the first time, to Hezbollah and Iran.
The status quo didn’t change much, and the protests were hit by COVID and then
the Beirut Port blast, but they did manage to achieve a number of important
outcomes, such as the removal of Saad Hariri from the political scene. Most
importantly, the protests exposed the true face of Hezbollah: the protector of
the system, and the guardian of corruption, violence and injustice. Eventually,
this translated into Hezbollah’s loss of its parliamentary majority in May 2022.
The group’s popularity took a dramatic hit, and criticism against their
practices and policies intensified on both social media and in the streets.
However, between seeking the people’s love and instilling fear, Hezbollah chose
to instigate fear. The group threatened, attacked, and harassed activists and
constituents who expressed discontent. Then they killed Lokman Slim – and the
wall of fear went up immediately, and a sense of control was reestablished.
The Challenges for Hezbollah
Hezbollah’s goal today is to maintain their control and regain the power they
lost in the parliamentary elections by imposing their choice for the next
president and their vision for the next government. They will continue to
prohibit attempts to reform institutions and will become the party with the best
access to hard currency in Lebanon. They will use all tools possible to
establish a long-term control over Lebanon, even if this means a change of the
constitution or the elimination of the Taif Agreement. This will be the last
nail in the coffin for Lebanon as we know it.
For Hezbollah, a new constitution for Lebanon could be the only guarantee for
Iran’s power and entrenchment. And further deterioration of the state
institution and the economy could pave the way for the group and its allies to
call for this scenario.
But this phase in Lebanon’s chapter, and Hezbollah’s strategy to deal with it,
comes with many risks and challenges.
First, the Lebanese realize today that Hezbollah’s weapons are directed at the
Lebanese people. This has transformed them from being the “resistance” and
“liberators” of 1982 and 2000 to the new occupiers. This shift in perception
will lead to a serious change in the dynamics between them and the Lebanese
people, mainly the Shia community. Without the embrace of the Shia, Hezbollah
cannot thrive.
Second, Hezbollah’s popularity could erode further, and this will continue to
influence the upcoming municipal and future parliamentary elections. They could
continue losing voters and allies, and eventually, the risk of losing
decision-making power will be real.
Three, it has become a liability to ally with Hezbollah. Its current allies
either lost the elections, got sanctioned, or both. And in return, Hezbollah can
no longer guarantee presidencies, ministries, or business deals. Michel Aoun
left the presidential palace, and his son-in-law Gebran Bassil has not replaced
him.
Four, the group understands that they can threaten with their arms without using
their arms, but not indefinitely. They know that once they use them, they lose
them. Iran is no longer in a good place to restock Hezbollah with money and
weapons the way they used to and Hezbollah had to come up with alternatives. The
drug and smuggling business to which they resorted in the past also harmed their
image and transformed the “resistance” into the biggest drug cartel in Lebanon
and possibly the region.
Five, the maritime deal Lebanon signed with Israel in October 2022 was approved
by Hezbollah in order to avoid a conflict with Israel. But this had implications
for the group’s rhetoric: Hezbollah had to acknowledge the existence of an enemy
state and accept a diplomatic deal with it. The image of resistance took a hard
hit.
These challenges are not going to force Hezbollah to change its policy or its
allegiance to Iran. As long as it has the weapons, the strength and power over
Lebanon, and most importantly, works with the absence of international concern
over Lebanon, the group and its sponsors in Tehran will probably find a way to
walk the line between power and popularity.
Opportunities and Recommendations
The Lebanese, Syrians, and Iraqis look today at Iran and feel a sense of hope
because they know a change in Iran means change in their own countries. This
might take a long time, but there are ways to make Hezbollah more vulnerable in
Lebanon. This requires a comprehensive policy towards Lebanon – between the
United States, Europe (mainly France) and Saudi Arabia – it also needs to
involve the Lebanese opposition groups – no policy has ever worked in Lebanon
without active internal involvement. So far, the discussion on Lebanon is
already underway among all these states but it is still focused on the
humanitarian program. A serious policy should hit Hezbollah’s three main pillars
of power in Lebanon: the Shia community, the allies, and the weapons.
More sanctions on Hezbollah’s allies’ certainly helps. But it is time for Europe
– France in particular – to start issuing the sanctions they’ve been discussing
since 2019. In addition, Hezbollah’s allies should not be allowed to visit the
US or Europe or even have bank accounts and assets in any of these countries. It
should be made very risky to ally with Hezbollah.
As for the Shia community, this is the perfect time to work directly with the
Shia, listen more to the voices of discontent, and give political and material
support to the new opposition among the Shia – mainly those with socio-economic
visions. These also need protection and support – without protection, Hezbollah
will kill them as they killed Lokman Slim and others.
The existence of large supplies of weapons is a different game altogether. No
one really can target this arsenal without a war. Israel has been taking care of
Iran’s weapons factories and facilities in Syria, but the ones in Lebanon have
been stored underground since 2006. Some expired but many still constitute a
serious risk in the next war with Israel. There are two ways of dealing with
these: either targeted attacks by Israel that would destroy weapons without
killing civilians, or exposing the weapons facilities built under civilian
infrastructure, such as schools and hospitals. The Lebanese people have no idea
what’s under their homes and land, and they certainly do not want to risk
anything anymore.
These pillars are already shaking – Hezbollah’s allies lost during the
elections, Iran is facing its own challenges, and the Shia community has lost
faith in Hezbollah. Now is the time to hit hard. Ultimately, the Iranian people
might be the only hope left for the region, but as we wait, constraining
Hezbollah in Lebanon could help.
The alternative is alarming – a new Lebanon, with a new constitution that would
guarantee Hezbollah’s power and control – with or without Iran.
*Hanin Ghaddar is the Friedmann Fellow in The Washington Institute’s Program on
Arab Politics, where she focuses on Shia politics throughout the Levant. She is
the author of HezbollahLand and tweets @haningdr
طوني بدران من موقع مؤسسة هوفر
القافلة: اللبنانيون يعيشون الحلم
The Lebanese are Living the Dream
Tony Badran/Hoover Institution's The Caravan/December 14/2022
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/114048/tony-badran-americas-lebanese-fantasy-hits-a-road-bump-the-lebanese-are-living-the-dream-%d8%b7%d9%88%d9%86%d9%8a-%d8%a8%d8%af%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%86-%d9%85%d9%86-%d9%85%d9%88%d9%82%d8%b9-%d8%a7/
The Lebanese have long had an ideal vision for how their dysfunctional polity
should be run. Their perfect arrangement involves the great power(s) — which in
the past meant Europe and Russia but today refers primarily to the United States
— coming to an understanding with the locally-dominant regional power — at
various points, the Ottomans, Egypt, Syria, and now Iran. The understanding
covers the administration of Lebanese affairs, managing their politics,
stabilizing their economy, and guaranteeing their security.
The Lebanese regularly give expression to this vision with constant calls for
“international conferences” to regulate their politics and to manage or
substitute for their non-existent “state institutions.” They are likewise
explicit about drawing the great power into an arrangement with the regional
middle power that controls Lebanon. In recent years, they even invented colorful
formulas to describe the arrangement between the US and Iran, dubbing it
“Aleph-Aleph,” the first Arabic letters in “Iran” and “America.”
This vision is born of the Lebanese recognition that theirs is not a real state.
Indeed, they relish in the notion that they are, to draw from the 19th century
predecessor of modern Lebanon, a “special province” to be managed by outside
powers.
Today, the Lebanese find that the arrangement they have always aspired to lines
up perfectly with the Biden administration’s regional policy. That is, in spite
of their economic crisis, the Lebanese are living the dream.
The economic crisis, if anything, amplifies the pitch for the desired Lebanese
arrangement: it heightens the alleged need for foreign powers to be involved,
lest their interests also suffer. Hence, ever since the financial implosion of
2019, warnings of “state failure” and “state collapse” have dominated the
conversation about Lebanon. Leaving aside the premise that Lebanon ever was a
“state” in any meaningful sense to begin with, to talk about impending “state
failure” in a country that has been dominated by a terrorist group for almost
two decades (preceded by decades of Syrian occupation and civil war) is
ludicrous.
But the suitability of these categories or the precision of their definitions
are not the main concern of the policymakers and advocates, Lebanese, American,
or other, who peddle them. In truth, the purpose of terms like “collapse” is to
create a sense of impending, near-apocalyptic crisis, namely an explosion of
armed civil conflict, which would supposedly affect US national security.
Naturally, none of these scenarios are fleshed out so as to assess how realistic
they are. A civil war scenario, for instance, is not realistic — nor would it
affect US interests.
Nevertheless, Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Barbara Leaf
recently echoed the preposterous Lebanese sales pitch, claiming that US allies
among Lebanon’s neighbors, particularly Israel, “will bear the brunt of state
collapse” in the Hezbollah-run country. “Our efforts,” Leaf continued, “are
aimed precisely at averting that scenario.” Leaf did not bother to explain how
or why Israel would bear the brunt of “state collapse” — whatever she meant by
that term — in what is, in effect, the Hezbollah missile base to its north.
None of that matters, of course, as the point of this rhetoric is merely to
validate existing policy. Since taking office, the Biden administration has
assumed the role of micromanaging Lebanon at a granular level, treating it
precisely as an American-managed special province and marshaling international
support and aid programs on its behalf. Moreover, Team Biden set in motion major
initiatives and pressured US regional allies into propping up the Hezbollah-led
pseudo-state.
These initiatives on the part of the administration are not merely ad hoc
responses. Rather, they are explicitly manifestations of a fully-formed
strategy, authored by former president Barack Obama, that realigns the US toward
Iran in the region. The Biden administration implements this strategy under the
term “regional integration.” According to this vision, in order to
“depressurize” the region, US allies need to stabilize and prop up —
“integrate”— Iran’s so-called regional equities and cease any measures that
might destabilize the Iranian order.
Lebanon occupies a central position in this strategy inasmuch as it is an
explicit Iranian holding, run entirely by Iran’s arm, Hezbollah. Hence, in
promoting “integration” with Lebanon, the Biden administration is pushing for
regional and international investment in territory controlled entirely by Iran
and also fully sponsored by the United States — literally, the Lebanese dream.
The Biden team has focused on underwriting and managing Lebanon’s security and
energy sectors. Even before the 2019 crisis, Washington was already subsidizing
most of the Lebanese Armed Forces’ (LAF) non-personnel expenditures. Since the
crisis, the Biden administration has marshaled multiple countries (Egypt, Iraq,
Jordan, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Turkey, and a host of European states), and even
involved the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon, to send regular support
packages to the LAF covering everything from food and medicine to fuel and spare
parts. The LAF, like other Lebanese security organs, are Hezbollah auxiliaries.
In addition, Team Biden has concocted a scheme to make direct salary payments
not only to the LAF, but also Lebanon’s Internal Security Forces (ISF), all in
all totaling 100,000 unvettable members, through a United Nations-administered
fund, in which the US — that is, the American taxpayer — will be the largest
contributor. As it waited for this fund to be created, the administration has
managed to enlist Qatar to dole out $60 million to support LAF salaries for the
next six months.
The administration’s principal target for recruitment into its “integration”
scheme is Saudi Arabia. As of yet, the Kingdom has rebuffed the American demand
that it underwrite the US-Iranian understanding and finance an entity controlled
by its Iranian adversary through Hezbollah. But whereas the Biden administration
so far has failed to crack the Saudis on Lebanon, it did manage to entangle its
second major target, America’s other key ally in the region: Israel.
For the Biden team, the objective on the Israeli track was two-fold: prosperity
and security for Hezbollah-controlled Lebanon. This was done through clinching a
maritime border demarcation agreement with Israel. The White House described the
deal, sealed in October, as an aspect of its “regional integration” policy.
Most immediately, the administration wanted to clear the way for the consortium
led by France’s TotalEnergies to begin drilling offshore for natural gas, and to
open the door for further investment in Lebanon. Here, too, Qatar was once again
brought in as the Arab investor, acquiring a stake in the Total-led consortium.
But the administration advertised the agreement as also providing security to
Hezbollah-run Lebanon. “This agreement, we are confident, will provide the kind
of security that both countries need,” a senior White House official said in a
background briefing. How? By linking Israel’s security to that of the terror
pseudo-state to its north and to its prosperity. “Having a prosperous Israel
side-by-side a prosperous Lebanon is the best security guarantee for both
countries,” explained the senior official.
By acting as a guarantor between Israel and Hezbollah, the Biden administration
communicated to the Iranians that it was willing to safeguard their interests in
Lebanon. Moreover, the administration envisions that the European investments
and increased entanglements that come with the deal would put in place checks on
Israeli action against Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Whether this arrangement will hold, especially now that Benjamin Netanyahu is
set to return as prime minister, is a separate matter. What is clear is that the
Biden team, along with their French partner, are openly recognizing Lebanon as
an Iranian holding, to which they are extending American sponsorship. The
administration’s policy for the last two years has been to force US allies to
join in propping up this American-Iranian understanding. With that, Team Biden
has turned the perennial Lebanese fantasy into reality.
*Tony Badran is a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
He tweets @AcrossTheBay. FDD is a nonpartisan research institute focusing on
national security and foreign policy.
https://www.hoover.org/research/lebanese-are-living-dream
طوني بدران من موقع العربية: الخيال الجامع الأميركي تجاه
لبنان يصطدم بمطبات وعقبات كبيرة
America’s Lebanese fantasy hits a road-bump
Tony Badran/Al Arabiya/December 14/2022
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/114048/tony-badran-americas-lebanese-fantasy-hits-a-road-bump-the-lebanese-are-living-the-dream-%d8%b7%d9%88%d9%86%d9%8a-%d8%a8%d8%af%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%86-%d9%85%d9%86-%d9%85%d9%88%d9%82%d8%b9-%d8%a7/
For the past two years, the Biden administration has been hell-bent on getting
Saudi Arabia to underwrite the US project of administering Lebanon. And for two
years running, the Kingdom has refused, having no desire to bankroll an Iranian
equity run by Hezbollah. The administration, however, is demanding US allies
suspend disbelief and pretend that Lebanon is in fact a real, normal state. In
the latest iteration of its Lebanese project, the Biden team is trying to reel
in the Saudis with the bait of electing a new Lebanese president.
In the joint statement following President Biden’s recent summit with his French
counterpart Emanuel Macron, the White House included the Lebanese presidential
election as a priority item at the top of the Middle East section of the
statement. The US and French presidents, the statement read, “are determined to
sustain joint efforts to urge Lebanon’s leaders to elect a president.”
Determined is an understatement. Before this latest communique, the US and
France leaned on Saudi Arabia on the sidelines of the United Nations General
Assembly meeting to join them in a statement calling for the election of a
Lebanese president that could “unite” the Lebanese. In the same pathological
wish-casting vein, the Biden administration included a reference to this
sandcastle-building project in a nearly 300-word long section on Lebanon it
shoehorned into the concluding statement of the US-Saudi summit in Jeddah this
past July.
Like a drunk on a bender, the administration is telegraphing its supreme
confidence in its ability to bamboozle Riyadh into caving in. At a briefing in
Washington last month, US Assistant Secretary for Near East Affairs Barbara Leaf
asserted that although “the Saudis stepped back” from Lebanon, “I think [they]
will step back in.”
The Americans have been partnered with the French to enlist Saudi support
because the Biden team’s policy of “regional integration”—stabilizing and
propping up Iranian equities, especially Lebanon—jibes well with French
priorities, and is beneficial to French interests and investments. And so,
Macron has been an eager advocate of the US administration’s pro-Iran policy on
all fronts.
A year ago, almost to the day, Macron had himself traveled to Jeddah to press
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman to re-engage with Lebanon. “We want to
engage … and do everything so that an economic and commercial opening can
happen,” Macron said at the time, explicitly underscoring the endgame of renewed
Saudi financing for French interests. Ahead of the Washington summit, Macron
again harangued the Saudi crown prince about “the need to elect a [Lebanese]
president as soon as possible.”
Washington’s favored candidate for the dubious office of President of Lebanon is
Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) commander Joseph Aoun. The joint US-French strategy
here is to somehow con the Saudis into believing that this folkloric ritual
counts as a meaningful development signaling important change in the fake
Lebanese state. Aoun, as commander of the US-subsidized LAF, is marketed in DC
parlance as a trusted “national” figure who can introduce a “counterbalance”
(whatever that means) to Hezbollah’s sway and reinvigorate the “independence” of
its “institutions.” Success in imposing Aoun would mean that the group was
forced to bend or some such nonsense.
Of course, in reality, the Lebanese “state” and its “institutions” exist nowhere
except in the fantastical rhetoric of policymakers in Washington. The idea that
moving this or that piece around within the Hezbollah-dominated system, or
pinning pieces of colorful ribbon on this or that sectarian figure, constitutes
“change” is therefore about as meaningful as a bunch of ten-year-old boys
earnestly discussing the political intricacies of the ice planet Hoth from Star
Wars.
In reality, Hezbollah and the LAF commander are hardly foes: They have a
longstanding cooperative relationship, sponsored and advanced by the US with its
aid policy, which has seen the LAF and Hezbollah collaborate tightly, even
deploying jointly at times under the guise of “fighting ISIS.” Recognition of
this relationship between Hezbollah and the LAF is precisely why, when Saudi
Arabia took the decision to reevaluate its posture toward Lebanon in 2016, it
marked that decision by suspending a $3 billion grant to finance a French arms
sale to the LAF.
The truth is, the US and France are well aware of the reality that a new
“president”—or “prime minister,” or “election,” or whatever—has exactly zero
impact on Hezbollah’s absolute control in Lebanon. What Team Biden and the
Élysée actually want is to support the fig leaf of a fictional “state” that can
act as a vehicle for US initiatives and a recipient of foreign—including, they
hope, Saudi—support.
Behind this facade, the French and the Biden team are dedicated to propping up
the Hezbollah order that controls the Lebanese pseudo-state. Macron has been
explicit about this goal, having told Hezbollah officials he met with on a visit
to Beirut in 2020 that he intends to “work with [them] to change Lebanon.” The
Biden team, meanwhile, after negotiating as directly as possible with Hezbollah,
forced the group’s terms on a caretaker Israeli government in the month before
that country’s elections—the purpose of the deal for the US administration being
to stabilize Lebanon under Hezbollah rule.
For Hezbollah, the scenario of a Joseph Aoun presidency is just as good as any
other, or even better. Contrary to common wisdom, Hezbollah wants and benefits
from the US “regional integration” policy, with its push for stabilization of
the Hezbollah-run order, to which it promises both increased current investment
and greater legitimacy—meaning great power protection—for future investment. The
US maritime deal, for example, provided Hezbollah with both US political and
security cover and direct French investment. It also introduced Arab investment,
as Qatar was brought in to purchase a stake in the French Total Energies-led
consortium that was licensed to explore for offshore gas in south Lebanon.
The role that the Biden team has carved out for Qatar in Lebanon offers an
insight into what the US administration wants from the Saudis. In addition to
the aforementioned Lebanese offshore gas investment, Team Biden has enlisted
Qatar to bankroll its larger pro-Iran project in Beirut in lieu of the Saudis by
relying on Doha to dole out $60 million to pay LAF salaries in cash, pending the
creation of a UN-managed fund through which Washington would disburse its own
payments.
The administration has recruited Qatar, alongside the French, to market Joseph
Aoun’s presidency. A Lebanese newspaper report even claimed that the Qataris
offered to sweeten the pot, promising “to strongly contribute to the Lebanon aid
program should there be consensus over the army chief with US and French
blessing.” This is exactly the role the Biden team fantasizes that the Saudis
will play, on a larger scale.
The US realizes that Qatar cannot substitute for Saudi Arabia’s leadership role.
But, ever enamored with its own cleverness, the administration likely believes
that, in addition to plugging a hole, elevating Qatar might goad the KSA to jump
back on the crazy train and finance Washington’s pet project in Hezbollah-land.
To their credit, the Saudis do not appear to have changed their assessment so
far on Lebanon. It remains to be seen what change in posture will take place in
Israel once Benjamin Netanyahu assumes the premiership. Whatever happens on that
front, Saudi Arabia has remained the one actor that has not budged in their
refusal to underwrite Team Biden’s pro-Iran regional policy.
*Tony Badran is a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
He tweets @AcrossTheBay. FDD is a nonpartisan research institute focusing on
national security and foreign policy.
The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on December
14-15/2022
Text & Video/Kurds Against the Iranian
Regime: Internal and Regional Implications/Abdullah Mohtadi, Shukriya Bradost,
David Pollock
Washington Institute/December 14/2022
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/114061/114061/
Iran likely to be ousted from U.N. women's body
Michelle Nichols/UN/Reuters/December 14, 2022
Iran appears set to be ousted from a U.N. women's body on Wednesday for policies
contrary to the rights of women and girls, but several countries are expected to
abstain from the vote requested by the United States, diplomats said. The
54-member U.N. Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC) will vote on a U.S.-drafted
resolution to "remove with immediate effect the Islamic Republic of Iran from
the Commission on the Status of Women for the remainder of its 2022-2026 term."
The 45-member Commission on the Status of Women meets annually every March and
aims to promote gender equality and the empowerment of women. A U.S. official
told Reuters they had "consistently seen growing support" to remove Iran. Iran,
17 other states and the Palestinians argued in a letter to ECOSOC on Monday that
a vote "will undoubtedly create an unwelcome precedent that will ultimately
prevent other Member States with different cultures, customs and traditions ...
from contributing to the activities of such Commissions."The letter urged
members to vote against the U.S. move to avoid a "new trend for expelling
sovereign and rightfully-elected States from any given body of the international
system, if ever perceived as inconvenient and a circumstantial majority could be
secured for imposing such maneuvers." Only five of the signatories to the letter
are currently ECOSOC members and able to vote on Wednesday. The Islamic Republic
on Monday hanged a man in public who state media said had been convicted of
killing two members of the security forces, the second execution in less than a
week of people involved in protests against Iran's ruling theocracy. Nationwide
unrest erupted three months ago after the death while in detention of
22-year-old Kurdish Iranian woman Mahsa Amini, who was arrested by morality
police enforcing the Islamic Republic's mandatory dress code laws. The
demonstrations have turned into a popular revolt by furious Iranians from all
layers of society, posing one of the most significant legitimacy challenges to
the Shi'ite clerical elite since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Iran has blamed
its foreign enemies and their agents for the unrest. The Geneva-based U.N.
Rights Council voted last month to appoint an independent investigation into
Iran's deadly repression of protests, passing the motion to cheers of activists.
Tehran accused Western states of using the council to target Iran in an
"appalling and disgraceful" move.
Iran Ousted from UN Women's Body after US Campaign
Asharq A-Awsat/Wednesday, 14 December, 2022
Iran was ousted from a United Nations women's body on Wednesday for policies
contrary to the rights of women and girls, a move proposed by the United States
after Tehran's brutal crackdown on protests sparked by the death of a young
woman in custody.
The 54-member UN Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC) adopted a US-drafted
resolution to "remove with immediate effect the Islamic Republic of Iran from
the Commission on the Status of Women for the remainder of its 2022-2026 term."
On Wednesday, 29 voted in favor, eight against and there were 16 abstentions. US
Ambassador to the United Nations, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, told ECOSOC before
the vote that removing Iran was the right thing to do, describing Tehran’s
membership as an “ugly stain on the commission’s credibility.” Iran's UN
Ambassador Amir Saeid Iravani called the US move as illegal, describing the
United States as a bully. The 45-member Commission on the Status of Women meets
annually every March and aims to promote gender equality and the empowerment of
women. Iran, 17 other states and the Palestinians had argued in a letter to
ECOSOC on Monday that a vote "will undoubtedly create an unwelcome precedent
that will ultimately prevent other Member States with different cultures,
customs and traditions ... from contributing to the activities of such
Commissions." Only five of the signatories to the letter are currently ECOSOC
members and were able to vote on Wednesday. Tehran on Monday hanged a man in
public who state media said had been convicted of killing two members of the
security forces, the second execution in less than a week of people involved in
protests against Iran's ruling theocracy. Nationwide unrest erupted three months
ago after the death while in detention of 22-year-old Kurdish Iranian woman
Mahsa Amini, who was arrested by morality police enforcing the country’s
mandatory dress code laws. The demonstrations have turned into a popular revolt
by furious Iranians from all layers of society, posing one of the most
significant legitimacy challenges to the clerical elite since the 1979
revolution. Iran has blamed its foreign enemies and their agents for the unrest.
The Geneva-based UN Rights Council voted last month to appoint an independent
investigation into Iran's deadly repression of protests, passing the motion to
cheers of activists. Tehran accused Western states of using the council to
target Iran in an "appalling and disgraceful" move.
Iran Nuclear Chief Says IAEA Officials to Visit Tehran Soon
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 14 December, 2022
UN nuclear watchdog officials will visit Iran in the coming days, Tehran's
nuclear chief Mohammad Eslami said on Wednesday, to try to end an impasse over
traces of uranium found at Iranian undeclared sites. "We hope the visit of the
International Atomic Energy officials to Tehran in the coming days can help
resolving issues with the agency," Eslami told state TV. The issue has been an
obstacle to progress in wider talks to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear deal with
major powers to curb its disputed uranium enrichment program in return for
lifting sanctions imposed by Washington after exiting the pact in 2018.
The Young Iranians Facing Death Penalty over Protests
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 14 December, 2022
A doctor, rap artists and a footballer are among around two dozen Iranians who
risk being hanged as Tehran uses capital punishment as an intimidation tactic to
quell protests, rights groups say. The executions in the past week of Mohsen
Shekari and Majidreza Rahnavard, both 23 and the first people put to death over
the protests, sparked an outcry, especially as Rahnavard was hanged from a crane
in public rather than in prison. But campaigners warn that more executions will
inevitably follow without tougher international action, with a dozen more people
already sentenced to death over the protests and a similar number charged with
crimes that could see them hanged. "Unless the political cost of the executions
is increased significantly, we will be facing mass executions," said Mahmood
Amiry-Moghaddam, director of the Norway-based Iran Human Rights group. He
accused Iran's leaders of using executions to "spread fear among people and save
the regime from the nationwide protests". The largely peaceful demonstrations
sparked by the death in September of Mahsa Amini, who had been arrested for
allegedly violating Iran's strict dress code for women, are posing the biggest
challenge to the republic since the 1979 revolution. There have been no reports
of a slackening in protest activity in recent days, including after the
executions, but the movement has been marked by phases of more and less intense
demonstrations. Authorities describe those facing death sentences as
"rioters" who are being judged in full accordance with the country's religious
law. But activists express alarm over the use of vaguely worded legal charges
against protesters, such as "enmity against God," "corruption on earth" and
"armed rebellion", all of which are capital crimes in Iran.
'Unfair trial, torture'
Amnesty International currently confirms 11 cases of death sentences issued
against individuals over the protests, and another nine cases where individuals
have been charged with crimes that could see them given the death penalty. One
young protester, Sahand Nourmohammad-Zadeh, was sentenced to death over charges
-- which he denied -- that he did no more than tear down highway railings and
set fire to rubbish bins and tires, the rights group said. Mohammad Ghobadlou,
aged 22, was sentenced to death on charges of running over police officials with
a car, killing one and injuring several others, Amnesty said, adding it had
"serious concerns" he was subjected to torture and other abuse in jail. Saman
Seydi, a young Kurdish rapper, was sentenced to death on charges of firing a
pistol three times into the air during protests, the group said, adding it had
received information he had also been subjected to torture to extract forced
confessions. Before his arrest, Seydi had posted material on Instagram in
support of the protests, while his rap songs had also been critical of the
authorities. Hamid Ghare-Hasanlou, a doctor, and his wife Farzaneh
Ghare-Hasanlou were on their way to the funeral of a killed protester when they
were "caught up in the chaos" of a fatal assault on a member of the Basij
militia, Amnesty said. Hamid Ghare-Hasanlou was sentenced to death and his
wife to 25 years in prison, with the court relying on incriminating statements
from his wife which Amnesty said were coerced and later retracted by her in
court. Her husband was tortured in custody and hospitalized with broken ribs, it
said. Mahan Sadrat, another young man Amnesty had been concerned about, was
granted a stay of execution after a conviction based on allegations he had drawn
a knife to attack an individual, his lawyer said Wednesday. Those who face the
death penalty after being charged with capital crimes include Toomaj Salehi, 32,
a prominent rapper who was charged "solely in connection with critical music and
social media posts," Amnesty said, adding that he had been tortured in
detention. The professional footballer Amir Nasr-Azadani, 26, is in a similar
position after being charged over the deaths of three security officials in
November in the city of Isfahan, it said. The world union of professional
footballers FIFPRO said it was "shocked and sickened" by the reports he faces
death.
Executed 'at any moment'
Campaigners are seeking to highlight all individuals facing the death penalty in
the hope that increased scrutiny on specific cases can help spare lives. But
they warn the executions often come with little or no advance notice. Rahnavard
was hanged just 23 days after his arrest and shortly after a last meeting with
his mother, who was given no inkling her son was about to be put to death.
Activists were also unaware of Shekari's case until his execution was announced
by state media. Amnesty said Iranian authorities are issuing, upholding and
carrying out death sentences in a "speedy manner" and there is a "serious risk"
that people whose death sentences have not been made public could be executed
"at any moment". "The executions of two people connected to the protests in Iran
are appalling, and we are extremely worried for the lives of others who have
been similarly sentenced to death," the office of the UN High Commissioner for
Human Rights told AFP. It added that Iran had "ignored" its pleas not to carry
out the executions.
400 Protesters Jailed over Tehran Protests
Asharq A-Awsat/Wednesday, 14 December, 2022
Courts in Tehran have sentenced 400 people to jail terms of up to 10 years over
their involvement in protests sparked by Mahsa Amini's death, AFP quoted Iran's
judiciary as saying Tuesday. Iran has been gripped by nearly three months of
protests -- which officials describe as "riots" -- since the death of Amini
after her arrest for an alleged breach of the country's dress code for women.
"In hearings on cases of rioters in Tehran province, 160 people were sentenced
to between five and 10 years in prison, 80 people to two to five years and 160
people of up to two years," Tehran's judiciary chief Ali Alghasi-Mehr said,
quoted by the judiciary's Mizan Online website. Tehran has drawn widespread
international condemnation after executing two men in the past week in
connection with the unrest. Majidreza Rahnavard and Mohsen Shekari, both 23,
were hanged on Monday and Thursday respectively on the charges of "moharebeh.”Prior
to the two executions, Iran's judiciary said it had issued death sentences to 11
people over the protests, but campaigners say around a dozen others face charges
that could see them also receive the death penalty. Since September 16 when the
protests broke out, thousands of people have been arrested. Iran's top security
body said on December 3 that more than 200 people had been killed in the unrest.
Iran Pushes Global List of Imprisoned Journalists to Record
High
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 14 December, 2022
Iran's protest crackdown has helped push the number of journalists imprisoned
worldwide to a record high of 533 in 2022, according to a report by Reporters
Without Borders (RSF) published Wednesday. The figure is up from 488 in 2021,
already a record, according to the France-based NGO. More than half are detained
in just five countries: China, which remains "the world's biggest jailer of
journalists" with 110, followed by Myanmar (62), Iran (47), Vietnam (39) and
Belarus (31), said AFP. "Dictatorial and authoritarian regimes are filling their
prisons faster than ever by jailing journalists," said Christophe Deloire, RSF
Secretary-General, in a statement. "This new record in the number of detained
journalists confirms the pressing and urgent need to resist these unscrupulous
governments and to extend our active solidarity to all those who embody the
ideal of journalistic freedom, independence and pluralism."Iran is the only
country that was not part of the list last year, said RSF, which has been
publishing the annual tally since 1995. It said Iran had locked up an
"unprecedented" 34 media professionals since protests broke out in September
over the death in custody of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini, who was arrested for
breaching the country's strict dress code.
- 'Deliberately targeted' -
The number of women journalists in prison is also at an all-time high worldwide,
rising from 60 to 78 since 2021, largely due to greater numbers entering the
profession. It highlighted the cases of Iranians Nilufar Hamedi and Elahe
Mohammadi -- among 15 female journalists arrested during the protests -- who
drew attention to the death of Amini and now face a potential death penalty. It
is "indicative of the Iranian authorities' desire to systematically reduce women
to silence," RSF said. The NGO awarded its Prize for Courage on Monday to one of
their members, Narges Mohammadi, who has been repeatedly imprisoned over the
past decade. The number of journalists killed has also risen -- to 57 -- due
particularly to the war in Ukraine, up from "historic lows" of 48 and 50 in the
last two years, respectively. Eight journalists have been killed reporting on
the war, five of them from non-combatant countries. RSF said nearly 80 percent
of media professionals killed around the world in 2022 were "deliberately
targeted in connection with their work or the stories they were covering", such
as organized crime and corruption cases.
China Sends Official Xi Sidelined on Trip to Protest-Hit
Iran
Bloomberg/December 13, 2022
China sent an official who was recently removed from the top echelons of power
to meet Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, a sign Beijing is keeping its distance
from the Middle Eastern nation as it deals with widespread unrest. Chinese Vice
Premier Hu Chunhua met Raisi in Tehran on Tuesday, the official Xinhua News
Agency reported — an encounter that came a day after Iran hanged a second person
over demonstrations sparked by the death of a woman in police custody. Hu
conveyed Xi’s greetings and said China “will not waver in its determination to
develop their comprehensive strategic partnership,” Xinhua said. “China firmly
supports Iran in opposing external interference and safeguarding its
sovereignty, territorial integrity and national dignity,” it cited Hu as saying.
Xi just returned from a trip to Saudi Arabia, telling the major supplier of oil
to the world’s No. 2 economy that he was willing to expand the trade. During a
visit to the Middle East in 2016, Xi visited both Saudi Arabia and Iran, where
he agreed to a pact pledging economic cooperation for the next 25 years. The
Xinhua report didn’t mention the protests in Iran that have tested the
government since September, when Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old woman arrested for
allegedly flouting Islamic dress codes, died in the custody of so-called
morality police. London-based rights group Amnesty International said last week
it had identified 44 children killed by Iran’s security forces in the unrest. Hu
was once seen as a potential leader of China, but failed to keep a seat on the
Politburo or gain promotion at a twice-a-decade congress of the ruling Communist
Party in October that saw Xi pack top decision-making bodies with allies. China
itself experienced its most widespread protests in decades late last month.
Those demonstrations were largely focused on Xi’s stringent policy for
containing Covid-19, though some protesters did call for Xi to step down after a
decade in power.
Germany's Scholz says EU firmly on Ukraine's side
BERLIN, Dec 14 (Reuters)/December 14, 2022
The European Union is united in its support for Ukraine, Chancellor Olaf Scholz
told the German parliament, adding, with apparent reference to Hungary, that
attempts to undermine the bloc's values by blocking foreign policy measures
would fail. "Anyone who thinks he can undermine the values of the EU, to which
every member state has committed itself, by blocking its foreign and security
policies, will fail," he told legislators on Wednesday. Budapest earlier this
week dropped its objections to an EU loan to Kyiv after the partial unfreezing
of financial support for Hungary. The EU had blocked the funds over rule of law
concerns. Support for Ukraine, including sanctions against Russia, would be
maintained and intensified for as long as President Vladimir Putin kept up his
war against Kyiv, Scholz added. "Nobody is suffering as much from Russia's war
as the Ukrainians - and we stand firmly by their side," he said. (Reporting by
Thomas Escritt, editing by Rachel More and Barbara Lewis)
Russia launches drone attack on Kyiv, Ukraine hails air
defences
Tom Balmforth and Pavel Polityuk/KYIV (Reuters)/December 14,2022
Russia launched its first major drone attack on the Ukrainian capital in weeks
on Wednesday, smashing a hole in the roof of a building in central Kyiv, but
city officials said air defences had prevented serious damage. Kyiv Mayor Vitali
Klitschko said explosions had rocked the central Shevchenkivskyi district and
that two administrative buildings had been damaged, but mentioned no casualties.
The air raid alert was lifted three hours after it began. Russia, which invaded
Ukraine on Feb. 24, has unleashed barrages of missile attacks on energy
infrastructure since October. Ukraine's grid operator said energy facilities had
not sustained any damage in Wednesday's attack. In one Kyiv district, residents
said they heard the sound of an Iranian Shahed drone - known as "mopeds" by
Ukrainians because of the loud whirring of their engines - followed by a
powerful explosion at a building next to their homes. "I was already in the
kitchen - I heard everything – I heard the buzzing 'moped' and I ran into the
bathroom," said Yana, 39, who said she had been getting ready for work. "I want
this all to be over… For (Russian President Vladimir) Putin, that bastard, to
die. Those are the only emotions," she said. The nearby brick building had a
chunk of its roof missing and the windows of nearby residential apartment blocks
had been smashed. Bits of brick and metal roof sheeting lay on the snowy ground
and the site was cordoned off. "Of course it was scary…. I didn’t understand at
first - I heard it when I was dreaming. Then I didn’t know what to do…. I went
out on the street because I thought my building had been hit,” said Zhenya, 38,
another local resident.
'FOR RYAZAN'
Within the walls of the damaged building, the white tail of a drone could be
seen on the ground. It had M529 Geran-2 written on it and a handwritten message:
"For Ryazan!!!", an apparent message of revenge. Russia last week accused
Ukraine of carrying out drone attacks on two of its air strips, including one in
the Ryazan region. Ukrainian officials said Russia used Iranian-made Shahed
drones for the attack. Russia, which denies charges of terrorism, has recently
been using long-range missiles for attacks which it says are militarily
justifiable. Kyiv says the strikes are intended to hurt civilians, a war crime.
"The terrorists began this morning with 13 Shaheds. All 13 were shot down by
Ukrainian air defence, according to preliminary information. Well done guys, I'm
proud," President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said. Ukrainian air force spokesperson
Yuriy Ihnat said the attack was deliberately timed for when it was dark to make
it harder to shoot the drones down. Ihnat said Russia had used about 400 drones
since the first was shot down by Ukraine in mid-September and that it was
unclear whether Russia was using a new batch or had not yet used up its old
stock.
Ukraine: Russian strikes thwarted, wreckage hits buildings
KYIV, Ukraine (AP)/Wed, December 14, 2022
Ukrainian authorities said they thwarted a Russian attack on Kyiv and the
surrounding region Wednesday as their air defense system intercepted and
destroyed 13 explosive-laden drones, although wreckage from some of them damaged
five buildings. No casualties were reported.
The attempted strikes underlined how vulnerable Ukraine's capital remains to the
regular Russian attacks that have devastated infrastructure and population
centers in recent weeks, mostly in the country's east and south. But they also
highlighted Ukraine's claims of increasing efficiency in intercepting weapons -
something that Patriot missiles from the U.S. may soon help boost. Ukrainian
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, in a brief video statement, said the “terrorists”
fired 13 Iranian-made drones, and all were intercepted. Such drones have been
part of the firepower, along with rockets, missiles, shelling mortars and
artillery, as Russia targets power stations, water facilities and other public
utility sites. The snow-covered capital remained largely calm after the attack,
which occurred around daybreak. As the working day began, authorities sounded
the all-clear.
The head of the Kyiv city administration, Serhii Popko, wrote on Telegram that
the attempted strikes came in two waves. Wreckage from the intercepted drones
damaged an administrative building and four residential buildings, he said. A
blast left the three-story tax office building in the central Shevchenkyvskyi
district with a gaping hole in the roof and blew out windows in parked cars and
in a neighboring building. Clean-up crews were on site quickly to shovel away
the rubble and roll out plastic sheeting to cover the blown-out windows in
freezing temperatures. One man, unfazed, pushed his son on a swing set on a
nearby playground as the crews did their work.
Anton Rudikov's family was sleeping when they heard the sounds of an explosion
nearby and smashing windows. “The children were frightened; the windows flew
out," said Rudikov, who has daughters ages 13 and 18. "What else can I say?
Local residents told Associated Press reporters they saw fragments from a drone
which contained the words “For Ryazan.” The Kremlin claims Ukraine was
responsible for an attack last week on a military base in the Ryazan region of
western Russia. Ukrainian authorities have trumpeted their ability to down
Russian weapons. But strikes in some areas continue to cause deaths and havoc,
particularly in areas close to the front lines in the east and south. In the
southern city of Odesa, drone strikes temporarily shut off the power last week.
Kyiv has suffered comparatively little damage. During a previous round of
Russian volleys on Dec. 5, more than 60 of 70 strikes were intercepted by air
defense systems, including nine out of 10 targeting the capital and the
surrounding region, Ukrainian officials have said. U.S. officials said Tuesday
the United States was poised to approve sending a Patriot missile battery to
Ukraine, agreeing to an urgent request from Ukrainian leaders desperate for more
robust weapons to shoot down incoming Russian missiles. Zelenskyy pressed
Western leaders as recently as Monday to provide more advanced weapons to help
his country in its war with Russia. The Patriot would be the most advanced
surface-to-air missile system the West has provided to Ukraine to help repel
Russian aerial attacks in the war between the countries that erupted with
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24. U.S. officials also said last week that
Moscow has looked to Iran to resupply the Russian military with drones and
surface-to-surface missiles. Separately, the International Atomic Energy Agency
said that it has agreed with Ukraine to “establish a continuous presence of
nuclear safety and security experts” at all of the country's nuclear power
plants as part of efforts to prevent a nuclear accident during the conflict. The
U.N. nuclear watchdog already has deployed a permanent expert mission to the
Russian-held Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. The plant, Europe's biggest
nuclear power station, has faced repeated shelling and is the biggest cause of
concern. There are three other plants in Ukrainian-held territory, as well as
the decommissioned Chernobyl plant.
'Factional Tensions' Hit Russia's Military Chiefs Over
Ukraine War, Says UK Intelligence
Kevin Schofield/HuffPost/December 14, 2022
Russia’s military chiefs have been hit by “factional tensions” over the
country’s struggles in Ukraine, according to UK intelligence.
Vladimir Putin is also rumoured to have sacked a senior army boss amid growing
concerns in Moscow at how the war is going.
In their latest update on the conflict, the Ministry of Defence (MoD) said Igor
Girkin, a former Russian military intelligence officer, had been severely
critical of his country’s strategy in Ukraine.
“His comments highlight the fraught debate about the conduct of the war which
continues within Russia’s security community,” the MoD said. “Rumours
circulating on social media within the last 48 hours suggesting that Russian
chief of the general staff General Valery Gerasimov could have been fired cannot
be verified. “However, factional tensions likely extend to the top of Russia’s
military hierarchy.” In a further sign that the invasion of Ukraine is not going
to plan for Russia, it emerged yesterday that Putin had cancelled his
traditional end-of-year press conference. It will be the first time in a decade
that the Q&A - normally a fixture of the Moscow political calendar - has not
gone ahead. The MoD said: “The cancellation is likely due to increasing concerns
about the prevalence of anti-war feeling in Russia.”The cancellation came as
Russia’s spokesman Dimitry Peskov admitted that “no one likes us” as evidence
mounts that Putin’s military strategy is not going to plan. Ukraine has
successfully reclaimed 54% of the land Russia has seized since its February
invasion, with controlling just 18% of the country.
UK intelligence is assessing rumors that Putin fired his
top general, which Russia has angrily denied
Business Insider/December 14, 2022
In an intelligence update on Wednesday, the UK's Ministry of Defence pointed to
rumors on social media that Russia's top general had been fired. "Rumours
circulating on social media within the last 48 hours suggesting that Russian
Chief of the General Staff General Valery Gerasimov could have been fired cannot
be verified," said the UK MOD's update. "However, factional tensions likely
extend to the top of Russia's military hierarchy," it continued. Russia's
monthslong struggle to make headway in its invasion of Ukraine has roiled the
upper ranks of the Russian military, and seen numerous power changes — but none
so sweeping as a rumored ouster of Gerasimov, its top officer. The chatter about
Gerasimov was also noted by US think tank the Institute for the Study of War (ISW),
which said they originated from within the networks of Russia's
hyper-nationalist military bloggers. The matter attracted a denial from Russia's
Ministry of Defense on Sunday, which said that President Vladimir Putin had not
fired Gerasimov, and that there were no grounds for doing so. In the post, the
MOD branded as "fake" the idea that Gerasimov was to be ousted, providing
several photos of the general on official duties alongside Minister of Defense
Sergei Shoigu dated to last week. The ministry did not immediately respond to
Insider's request for additional comment. In a Monday analysis, the ISW compared
the scope of the denial to that offered in the face of similar rumors about the
firing or sidelining of Shoigu, which have surfaced several times throughout the
war. Per the ISW, the denial "stopped short of offering the kind of credible
support for this denial that it has provided" for Shoigu. In Shoigu's case, the
ministry assiduously shared video evidence that he is still in post, ISW said.
Nonetheless, the denial suggests Russia's MOD is sensitive to reports of any
schism in its elite leadership, the ISW said. The ministry likely wants to
"counteract reports of massive disruptions and incoherencies in Russian command
structure due to widespread failures in Ukraine," per the analysis. Reports of
power struggles in the Kremlin have circulated for weeks, particularly since
Ukraine's rapid retaking of vast occupied areas in the fall. The failures have
fueled intense criticism from Russia's hawkish military commentators. In
October, Russian businessman and Putin critic Mikhail Khodorkovsky described two
factions emerging within Russia's military elite, as Politico reported. They
comprised Shoigu and Gerasimov on one side, with Chechen warlord Ramzan Kadyrov
and Wagner Group founder Evgeny Prigozhin on the other, per Khodorkovsky.
Scholz says Balkans joining EU is in Germany's interest
Associated Press/December 14, 2022
Chancellor Olaf Scholz said Wednesday that it's in the interest of Germany and
Europe for the remaining countries of the Balkans to join the European Union.
Speaking to Parliament ahead of a one-day summit of the 27-nation bloc in
Brussels, Scholz welcomed the revival of EU accession talks with the six Western
Balkan countries in recent months, and the decision this week to grant Bosnia
candidate status. "It is in our German and our European interest for the rest of
the Balkans to become part of the European Union," he told lawmakers in Berlin.
Scholz also praised the decision to allow Croatia to join the Europe's
ID-check-free travel zone, and said Bulgaria and Romania should "follow
soon."Austria has so far blocked the two countries' bid to join the so-called
Schengen area.
Russian defector says training consisted of being given a weapon, a target and
5,000 bullets. Going to the front line left many broken.
Sinéad Baker/Business Insider/December 14, 2022
A Russian defector who is now in Europe said his unit was given almost no
training before it was sent to fight in Ukraine, which left soldiers broken
after they experienced the front lines. Nikita Chibrin told CNN that the
training his unit received was just a commander giving soldiers a weapon, a
target, and 5,000 bullets. "No one was doing anything. There was no actual
training," he said. Chibrin told CNN that some of the men in his unit had
bragged about how good they would be at fighting in Ukraine, saying they would
be "like Rambo," but they were then broken when they came back from being
deployed.
"Those who said they'd be shooting Ukrainians easily, when they come back from
the front lines … they could not even speak to me. They saw the war, they saw
defeat, saw their [fellow] combatants being murdered, saw corpses."Chibrin was
sent to Ukraine early in the war, and reports suggest that Russia's training for
many soldiers has only reduced since then, as it has had to call up reservists
to fight. Reports and intelligence assessments have suggested that Russia is
giving only minimal training and poor equipment to many of its soldiers. In
September, UK intelligence predicted that new troops would suffer heavily,
because of how little training they received. Chibrin said that he had initially
refused to fight, but that his commander said he would go to jail and that his
family would have "big problems" if he did not go. His commander then attacked
him, put him in a vehicle and closed the door. "And I couldn't open [it] from
inside. So, that's how I went to Ukraine," he said. Chibrin deserted the
military in September. He is now requesting asylum in a European city, CNN
reported, without naming his current whereabouts. Chibrin told CNN that he was
part of the 64th Separate Guards Motor Rifle Brigade, which has been linked to
alleged war crimes in Bucha. He said that men in his unit raped two women in
Ukraine, a mother and daughter, and that commanders shrugged when they learned
and that the soldiers were beaten and sent home, but not jailed. He also said
that his unit included some men who were "maniacs who enjoy killing." Chibrin
said he did not commit any crimes himself, and said he did not witness any
murders. Chibrin said he was in and out of the fighting. He was around Kyiv in
March, before his unit was brought back to Belarus, then spent time in a
military hospital in Russia, before going to the Kharkiv region in May. Russia's
defense ministry did not respond to CNN regarding Chibrin's claims.
U.S. kills Islamic State officials during raid in Syria
Bill Roggio/FDD's Long War Journal/December 14/2022
The U.S. military killed two Islamic State “officials” during a special
operations raid in eastern Syria on Dec. 11. The U.S. military has targeted the
Islamic State’s top tier leadership cadre with raids and strikes at least five
times since the beginning of the summer of 2022.
The “successful helicopter raid” took place in the early morning yesterday, U.S.
Central Command (CENTCOM) announced in a press release. CENTCOM described the
operation as “unilateral,” meaning it did not partner with local allies to
conduct the raid, and said no civilians were killed.
Among those killed was “Anas, an ISIS Syria Province Official who was involved
in the group’s deadly plotting and facilitation operations in eastern Syria.”
The other Islamic State official was not named, nor was his role in the terror
group disclosed.
“ISIS continues to pursue an aggressive operational agenda, including external
attacks that threaten U.S. allies and partners in the region and beyond,”
CENTCOM noted in its latest press release. Anas and his unnamed counterpart are
the first ISIS commanders reported killed since mid-October, when local Syrian
forces allied with the Syrian Arab Army killed Abu al-Hassan al-Hashimi al-Quraishi,
the Islamic State’s last caliph, during fighting in Dera’a province in the
south. The U.S. military was not involved in the operation that killed the
caliph. The U.S. military did however kill al-Hashimi’s predecessor, Abu Ibrahim
al-Hashimi al-Quraishi, during a raid in Idlib province in northwestern Syria in
February 2022. The U.S. military has launched at least four other high profile
attacks against the Islamic State’s leadership since the beginning of the summer
of 2022. The operations have strained the Islamic State’s leadership cadre. In
June 2022, U.S. forces conducted a raid inside Jarablus, Syria, which captured
an Islamic State official. A month later, another Islamic State leader was
killed in a drone strike near the Syrian town of Jinderes. On Oct. 6, two
Islamic State leaders were reported killed in a U.S. helicopter raid on an
Islamic State compound in Qamishli in Syria’s Kurdistan region. One of those
leaders killed was the Islamic State’s deputy emir for Syria. Four days later,
another reported U.S. drone strike targeted a suspected Islamic State member
near Tal Abyad in northern Syria.
*Bill Roggio is a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and
the Editor of FDD’s Long War Journal. Follow him on Twitter @billroggio. FDD is
a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national
security and foreign policy.
Hamas Marks Anniversary, Predicts Confrontation with
Israel
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 14 December, 2022
Hundreds of thousands of Palestinians on Wednesday thronged a rally in downtown
Gaza to mark the 35th anniversary of the founding of the Hamas movement, as
leaders predicted a year of “open confrontation” with the hardline Israeli
government expected to take office in the coming days. Hamas, an armed group
that has ruled the Gaza Strip since 2007, worked hard to mobilize the large
turnout at the city's Katiba park, viewing it as a show of strength at a time
when it appears to be struggling for popularity. Hamas seized control of the
impoverished enclave from forces loyal to Palestinian Authority President
Mahmoud Abbas, whose administration has been confined to the Israeli-occupied
West Bank. Israel has maintained a blockade on Gaza since the Hamas takeover,
tightly controlling the movement of people and goods in and out of the territory
in what it says is a security measure. Gaza's economy has gone into a tailspin,
and the territory has fought four wars and numerous skirmishes with Israel since
Hamas took power. During the rally, Hamas leaders predicted an “open
confrontation” with Israel in 2023 as the most right-wing government ever is
expected to be sworn in later this month.
“We have to give the chance to ignite the resistance in the West Bank,” said
Yehya Sinwar, Hamas' leader in Gaza. More than 150 Palestinians have been killed
by Israel in the West Bank and east Jerusalem this year, making it the deadliest
year since 2006. Israel says most of those killed were gunmen, though
stone-throwing youths and people uninvolved in fighting have also been killed.
Sinwar slammed Abbas, calling for an end to the Palestinian Authority’s security
coordination with Israel, which he said hurt mounting resistance to Israeli
raids in the West Bank. The Israeli military maintains quiet coordination with
Abbas' forces in a shared struggle against gunmen. Hamas also displayed what it
said was the assault rifle of Hadar Goldin, an Israeli soldier who along with
Oron Shaul was killed in a 2014 war inside Gaza. Sinwar said Israel has “a
limited amount of time” to swap Palestinian prisoners it is holding for the
remains of Goldin and Shaul “or we close this file for good.” While Hamas
leaders directed fiery rhetoric at Israel and Abbas, they overlooked the
increasing suffering of the 2.3 million residents of Gaza under its rule. While
the blockade has stifled Gaza's economy, critics note that the groups has
continuously upgraded its arsenal, including digging attack tunnels into Israel
and improving rocket capabilities. Critics say the group diverts money towards
its administration and military wing, while the international community and the
PA pay for most of health, education, social and other services for Gaza’
population. Hamas’ heavy-handed rule allows no room for opposition, and the
group has banned protests against it and jailed critics. Many of the group's top
leaders also have left Gaza for more comfortable locations in places like
Türkiye and Qatar. A poll conducted this month by the Palestinian Center for
Policy and Survey Research, a respected think tank based in the West Bank, found
that Hamas remains more popular than Abbas' Fatah party in the Gaza Strip. It
said 43% of respondents would vote for Hamas in a parliamentary election,
compared to 34% for Fatah. Still, the poll found that just 6% of Gazans think
the situation in the territory is positive, and 69% believe that Hamas-run
institutions suffer from corruption. The poll interviewed some 1,200 people and
had a margin of error of 3 percentage points.
Israeli jurists warn against Ben-Gvir’s bid for more
powers over police
Reuters/December 15, 2022
JERUSALEM: Legal advisers to Israel’s parliament and outgoing government on
Wednesday criticized a bid by a far-right politician to give himself expanded
powers as next police minister, warning that his proposed changes clashed with
democratic principles. Itamar Ben-Gvir of the Jewish Power party was promised
the National Security Ministry, with authority over police, under a coalition
deal with Prime Minister- designate Benjamin Netanyahu. Though Netanyahu’s
hard-right new government has yet to be finalized, Ben-Gvir has already
submitted a bill that would amend police regulations. It would give him, as
minister, greater control over the police chief and police investigations. Ben-Gvir,
who placed third in a Nov. 1 election thanks in part to his law-and-order
platform, has defended the bill as consolidating a chain of command between
government and police. But center-left lawmakers have warned that the amendments
could politicize criminal probes and prosecutions — and noted Ben-Gvir’s record
that includes 2007 convictions for incitement against Arabs and support for an
outlawed Jewish militant group. “The draft does not strike an appropriate
balance ... between the powers of the minister and the professional independence
of law enforcement bodies,” Amit Merari, deputy attorney-general, told a
parliamentary panel convened to discuss the bill after it passed its first
reading on Tuesday. “Taken together, the proposed directives have the potential
to deal real and grave damage to the core principles of democratic rule in the
State of Israel,” she said, adding that any amendment should be sought after the
government is sworn in. A parliamentary legal adviser, Miri Frenkel-Shor, said
the draft was inconsistent with principles set out by a state commission of
inquiry that “police must be totally free in its investigations, with only the
authority of the law above it”. Ben-Gvir has disavowed some of his past conduct.
He says that, in Cabinet, he will serve all of society. But he has also played
down violence by Jewish settlers against Palestinians in the occupied West Bank,
and wants Israeli security forces to be freer to open fire when faced with Arab
unrest. Seeking to allay domestic and foreign concerns at the far-right rise,
Netanyahu — who has already served a record 15 years in top office — says he
will ultimately set Israeli policy. Yet the issue of police independence has
also touched a nerve among Netanyahu’s critics given his ongoing corruption
trial, in which he denies all wrongdoing and accuses law enforcement authorities
of a politicized witch hunt against him. Addressing the parliamentary panel,
Ben-Gvir called his bill “a historical correction that would be requisite for
any democratic country.” Sitting beside him, the Israeli police chief,
Inspector- General Yaacov Shabtai, was more circumspect. “We are not opposed to
changes, but it is important that such dramatic changes be implemented through
deep discussion,” Shabtai said. “The police is not an army. The police interacts
with civilians and not, like an army, with a designated enemy.”
French prosecutors search Macron's party offices
Agence France Presse/Wednesday, 14 December, 2022
French prosecutors said Wednesday that the headquarters of President Emmanuel
Macron's Renaissance party had been searched in an investigation into the use of
consulting firms by the government since 2017. The Paris offices of US
consulting giant McKinsey were also searched on Tuesday, the National Financial
Prosecutors' Office said, confirming a report in Le Parisien newspaper. The use
of consultants by Macron's governments came under the spotlight in March after
an inquiry by the French Senate concluded that public spending on them had more
than doubled from 2018-2021 during Macron's first term. "It's normal for the
judiciary to investigate freely and independently to shed all the light on this
subject," a Renaissance spokesman, Loic Signor, told AFP. He said the party
remained at prosecutors' disposal "to provide all useful information on the
campaigns."McKinsey also confirmed the search of its offices, saying it was
"cooperating fully with the authorities."Two probes have been underway since
October, looking into possible false election campaign accounting, as well as
possible favoritism and conspiracy. Some McKinsey consultants are known to have
worked as unpaid volunteers on Macron's victorious 2017 election campaign and
prosecutors are thought to be probing whether this entailed a hidden campaign
expense. They are also looking into whether the firm enjoyed special access and
treatment afterwards when winning lucrative contracts with the government. Total
outlays on consulting firms reached more than a billion euros ($1.1 billion)
last year, a figure frequently cited by Macron's opponents during his successful
bid for a second term last April. The prosecutors have not publicly identified
the president or his campaign teams as the targets of the inquiry, of which
Macron said in November that "I'm not scared of anything."But the use of
expensive foreign firms for strategic advice, dubbed "McKinseygate" by French
media, shocked many French voters even as Macron has repeatedly defended the
contracts. France has strict rules on the financing of election campaigns and
political parties, which have led to many convictions in recent decades.Former
president Nicolas Sarkozy received a one-year prison sentence in September 2021
for illegal financing of his 2012 re-election bid. Judges concluded that Sarkozy
spent nearly twice the legal limit on his doomed quest for a second term. He has
appealed the ruling.
EU Says Committed to Building Partnership with Sudan
Khartoum - Ahmed Younis/Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 14 December, 2022
The European Union delegation to Sudan said it is committed to building a
partnership with Sudan based on the principles of democracy, the rule of law,
the universality and indivisibility of human rights and the principles of
equality and solidarity. On the occasion of International Human Rights Day 2022,
the delegation announced a 15-million-euro governance package that will focus in
2023 on these particular areas. EU ambassador to Sudan Aidan O’Hara said five
million euros will be devoted to protecting and advancing human rights in Sudan,
a further five million will help enhance the rule of law in the country by
promoting access to justice, and the final five million will support young
people working in the democratization and peace processes. “Our focus here is on
the young people because this is a generation that Sudan cannot afford to lose,”
O’Hara stressed. “Exactly 10 years ago the EU received the Nobel Peace Prize for
promoting peace, reconciliation, democracy and human rights,” O’Hara stated,
noting that the EU’s actions on the international scene are guided by the
principles which have inspired its own creation. He pointed out that the EU
tries to advance these principles in the wider world and it does so by building
partnerships with countries that share these principles. He said that the EU
member states were pleased to see that the political framework agreement signed
last week contains commitments on respect for human rights and freedoms and a
definition of citizenship that is based on equality without discrimination on
the grounds of gender, religion or ethnicity. “Some of the signatories need to
remember that the freedoms they signed up to include freedom of expression and
freedom of association and that the exercise of these freedoms requires
restraint from those who are tasked with making sure that law and order are
maintained.” He vowed to support re-electing Sudan this year to the UN Human
Rights Council, noting that the African country has accepted most of the 43
recommendations made to it in the peer review process. He further stressed that
his delegation will work with the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human
Rights on its implementation of these recommendations. As the political process
enters a new phase in Sudan, O’Hara said the EU stands ready to offer expertise
to the working groups engaged in consultation on outstanding sensitive issues,
especially expertise on the painful issue of transitional justice.
“We do so in the spirit of this year’s theme for International Human Rights Day,
namely the principle of dignity, freedom and justice for all,” he remarked.
El-Sisi to discuss trade, investment ties with world
leaders in US
Arab News/December 14, 2022
CAIRO: Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi will seek to strengthen trade and
investment partnerships during a three-day American-African summit hosted by US
President Joe Biden with the participation of 49 African leaders. El-Sisi, who
arrived in Washington on Tuesday, intends to focus on broadening the African-US
partnership to confront the food security crisis and to better integrate African
countries into the global economy, presidential spokesman Bassam Rady said. This
will yield benefits in terms of economic growth, technology transfer and foreign
investment, he added.
El-Sisi will meet several senior US officials to discuss strengthening bilateral
relations, and is also scheduled to meet a group of leading businessmen to
discuss greater cooperation in economic, trade and investment sectors. The
Egyptian leader will also meet several heads of state to discuss cooperation
frameworks, as well as regional and international issues. On Wednesday, El-Sisi
is scheduled to begin his activities at his residence in Washington with a
working breakfast with Republican leaders from Kentucky, Texas, Ohio and South
Carolina. He will meet Republican and Democratic members of the Friends of Egypt
group in Congress. This will be followed by talks at the Washington Convention
Center with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken. El-Sisi will also take part in
the closing session of the US-Africa Business Forum. The US State Department
said that on the second day of the summit, the focus will be on increasing
two-way trade and investment. He will also attend a dinner hosted by Biden at
the White House in honor of African leaders. The US Embassy in Cairo wrote on
its Facebook page: “To deepen the partnership between the USA, Egypt, and other
African countries, President Joe Biden is hosting the US Africa Leaders Summit
22. “The summit will engage our African partners, address challenges, and
reaffirm that democracy delivers tangible economic and security benefits.”
The Latest LCCC English analysis &
editorials from miscellaneous sources published
on December
14-15/2022
The Extremists the Biden Administration Does Not See
Bassam Tawil/Gatestone Institute./December 14, 2022
If [Bezalel] Smotrich and [Itamar] Ben-Gvir are "extremists" – at least in the
eyes of the Americans – then under what category do Faraj and Al-Sheikh fall, as
well as many other Palestinian officials who were previously involved in
terrorism?
These US officials expressing concern over the rise of the far-right parties in
Israel... do not seem to have any problem at all with the growing incitement and
continuing terrorist attacks by Palestinians against Israel. Those onslaughts
against Israelis, carried out in both the West Bank and inside Israel, include
shootings, stabbings, car-rammings and the hurling of rocks and firebombs.
The US officials ignore that Hamas, the Palestinian terror group whose charter
openly calls for the obliteration of Israel, remains more popular than ever
among Palestinians.
The students who voted for Hamas are saying that they do not recognize Israel's
right to exist; do not believe in any peace process with Israel and, like Hamas,
are totally opposed to the two-state solution that the Biden administration has
been advocating day and night.
Like Hamas, the students believe only in a solution that would see Israel
replaced by an Iranian-backed terror state controlled by Hamas and Palestinian
Islamic Jihad. This scenario does not seem to bother the Biden administration in
the slightest.
To see what real extremism looks like, those voicing concern over the return of
the right wing to power in Israel only need to catch a glimpse of what is
happening under the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank, and Hamas in the
Gaza Strip.
The streets of the West Bank and Gaza Strip are full of armed terrorists and
gunmen who are openly stating their intention to kill Jews.
Some even say that it was precisely actions of the Palestinian terrorists that
spurred this "extremist" group in Israel to win the election in the first place.
If the Biden administration wants to see real extremism, it only needs to turn
its gaze to the failing state of Lebanon, now under the de facto control of Iran
and its terrorist proxy, Hezbollah. The Biden administration could also take a
look at Syria, where tens of thousands of people have been slaughtered since the
beginning of the civil war in 2011.
Real extremism is on display every day on the streets of Jenin, Nablus, Ramallah
and the Gaza Strip; it claims the lives of Jews virtually every week.
The real extremists are also the Palestinian leaders who deprive their people of
the international aid and encourage their youths to kill Jews. The real
extremists are those who are responsible for firing rockets at Israeli cities
from the Gaza Strip. The real extremists are those who do not believe in the
right of Israel to exist and work non-stop to destroy it.
There is no comparison between the alleged extremists in Israel, and the
murderous terrorists in Lebanon, Syria, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. It is
high time for the Biden administration to open its eyes to that fact.
The US officials expressing concern over the rise of the far-right parties in
Israel do not seem to have any problem at all with the growing incitement and
continuing terrorist attacks by Palestinians against Israel. The streets of the
West Bank and Gaza Strip are full of armed terrorists and gunmen who are openly
stating their intention to kill Jews. Pictured: Terrorists mingle with local
children on the streets of the Palestinian Authority-ruled city of Jenin, on
December 8, 2022. (Photo by Zain Jaafar/AFP via Getty Images)
The Biden administration has reportedly expressed reservations about the rise of
far-right parties in the recent Israeli election. The administration, however,
has failed to express reservations about the continuous incitement against
Israel by Palestinian leaders and media outlets.
US officials are said to be especially concerned at the prospect of Bezalel
Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir of the Religious Zionism political alliance holding
key ministries in Israel's incoming governing coalition. These US officials,
however, apparently do not have a problem with many senior Palestinian officials
having been involved in terrorism.
Two of the Palestinian officials, Majed Faraj and Hussein al-Sheikh, still hold
regular meetings with senior representatives of the Biden administration who
evidently are not even remotely bothered by their past activities.
Faraj, one of the ruling Fatah's most prominent activists, was arrested by
Israel many times. Altogether, he spent at least six years in Israeli prison for
his role in violent activities against Israel and membership in a terror group,
especially during the First Intifada, which erupted in 1987.
Al-Sheikh, also a Fatah member, spent 11 years in Israeli prison for similar
charges. During the Second Intifada, which began in 2000, he was wanted by
Israel for his role in terrorism. In 2005, he was removed from Israel's list of
wanted terrorists, apparently as part of an Israeli-American attempt to
strengthen the Palestinian Authority and prevent Hamas from taking over the West
Bank.
Faraj is head of the Palestinian General Intelligence, while Al-Sheikh is
considered No. 2 in the Palestinian leadership after Mahmoud Abbas.
If Smotrich and Ben-Gvir are "extremists" – at least in the eyes of the
Americans – then under what category do Faraj and Al-Sheikh fall, as well as
many other Palestinian officials previously involved in terrorism?
The White House reportedly held a high-level meeting earlier this month to
discuss what its approach toward the new Israeli government should be, including
the possibility of not engaging with some of its ultranationalist ministers,
including Smotrich and Ben-Gvir.
Two former senior US diplomats, Daniel Kurtzer and Aaron David Miller, called on
the Biden administration to cut weapons supplies to Israel if the new right-wing
coalition in Israel "pursues the stated aims of some of its members."
These US officials expressing concern over the rise of the far-right parties in
Israel, however, do not seem to have any problem at all with the growing
incitement and continuing terrorist attacks by Palestinians against Israel.
Those onslaughts against Israelis, carried out in both the West Bank and inside
Israel, include shootings, stabbings, car-rammings and the hurling of rocks and
firebombs.
Recently, Mahmoud al-Habbash, Religious Affairs Adviser to the Palestinian
Authority President, equated the Jews who visit the Temple Mount in Jerusalem
with "those whom Allah has cursed... and made of them apes and pigs."
Another senior Palestinian official, Muhammed Al-Lahham, recently bragged that
90% of the terrorists who carried out attacks against Israelis in 2022 were
members of Fatah, headed by Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas. Al-Lahham
also credited Fatah with murdering 20 Israelis, saying this is a source of honor
for the faction.
Is the Biden administration going to hold a "high-level meeting" to discuss this
racist and incendiary rhetoric by Mahmoud Abbas's top advisers? Those remarks
were made by Palestinian officials, not by Jews named Smotrich or Ben-Gvir.
The US officials ignore that Hamas, the Palestinian terror group whose charter
openly calls for the obliteration of Israel, remains more popular than ever
among Palestinians.
A public opinion poll published by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey
Research on October 2, 2022, showed that if Palestinian presidential elections
were held today, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh would win 53% of the vote, while
Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas would receive only 38%.
Even more disturbing is that nearly a majority, or 48%, continue to support a
return to armed confrontations and an armed intifada (uprising) against Israel.
When Palestinians talk about "armed confrontations" and an "armed intifada",
they are referring to various forms of terrorism, including rockets, suicide
bombings, stabbings, car-rammings and shooting attacks.
In yet another sign of growing extremism among the Palestinians, Hamas scored a
landslide victory last May in the student council elections at Bir Zeit
University in the West Bank.
The result of the vote was a clear sign that a majority of Palestinian students
support a party designated as a foreign terrorist organization by the US and
other countries.
The Biden administration did not express any concern over this escalating trend
of extremism among the Palestinians.
The students who voted for Hamas are saying that they do not recognize Israel's
right to exist; do not believe in any peace process with Israel and, like Hamas,
are totally opposed to the two-state solution that the Biden administration has
been advocating day and night.
Like Hamas, the students believe only in a solution that would see Israel
replaced by an Iranian-backed terror state controlled by Hamas and Palestinian
Islamic Jihad. This scenario does not seem to bother the Biden administration in
the slightest.
The last time the Palestinians held a parliamentary election, in 2006, a
majority voted for Hamas. Since 2007, Hamas has been ruling with an iron fist
over the two million Palestinians in the Gaza Strip. The Palestinians in the
West Bank live under the Palestinian Authority, another repressive and corrupt
regime.
One rarely hears the Biden administration or other Western countries expressing
concern over human rights violations committed by the Palestinian Authority and
Hamas against their own people. Many in Washington and other capitals remain
obsessed with Israel and refuse to see any wrongdoing on the Palestinian side.
To see what real extremism looks like, those voicing concern over the return of
the right wing to power in Israel only need to catch a glimpse of what is
happening under the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank, and Hamas in the
Gaza Strip.
The streets of the West Bank and Gaza Strip are full of armed terrorists and
gunmen who are openly stating their intention to kill Jews. Yet, no one in the
international community appears to care about the gangs of killers that are
roaming the streets of the Gaza Strip, and the cities of Nablus and Jenin in the
West Bank.
Finally, the Biden administration that is now concerned about Smotrich and Ben-Gvir
in the Israeli government should at least take into consideration that the two
men were elected in a free and fair election.
Some even say that it was precisely actions of the Palestinian terrorists that
spurred this "extremist" group in Israel to win the election in the first place.
What country wants to leave itself defenseless?
The Palestinians themselves have not been able to hold general elections since
2006, so that Palestinian Authority Mahmoud Abbas is now in his 18th year of a
four-year term in office, while the Hamas leaders came to power through a
violent and bloody coup they staged in the Gaza Strip in 2007.
If the Biden administration wants to see real extremism, it only needs to turn
its gaze to the failing state of Lebanon, now under the de facto control of Iran
and its terrorist proxy, Hezbollah. The Biden administration could also take a
look at Syria, where tens of thousands of people have been slaughtered since the
beginning of the civil war in 2011.
Real extremism is on display every day on the streets of Jenin, Nablus, Ramallah
and the Gaza Strip; it claims the lives of Jews virtually every week.
The real extremists are also the Palestinian leaders who deprive their people of
the international aid and encourage their young men and women to kill Jews. The
real extremists are those who are responsible for firing rockets at Israeli
cities from the Gaza Strip. The real extremists are those who do not believe in
the right of Israel to exist and work non-stop to destroy it.
There is no comparison between the alleged extremists in Israel, and the
murderous terrorists in Lebanon, Syria, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. It is
high time for the Biden administration to open its eyes to that fact.
*Bassam Tawil is a Muslim Arab based in the Middle East.
© 2022 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
Iran Is a Rogue State
Tariq Al-Homayed/Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper/December, 14/2022 -
The developments we see unfolding today affirm that the mullah regime has turned
Iran into a rogue state. They also demonstrate that the approach that the West
and the US have followed in dealing with Iran has failed, particularly since the
failed 2015 nuclear agreement signed by former President Barack Obama.
The nuclear deal signed at the time only addressed enrichment levels and a few
facilities, overlooking other weapons, most dangerously missiles and drones,
which the mullah regime had demonstrably been using in the region.
In 2015, they didn’t heed the warnings of the countries of the region, including
Israel, about the dangers of ignoring the missiles and drones, as well as Iran’s
regional proxy militias.
It has become clear that these threats were real. The nuclear deal is not being
respected. Instead, Iran benefited from access to over 100 billion dollars in
assets abroad that had been frozen at the time, and it was allowed to sell its
oil and thus fund its militias, continue to manufacture drones, and engage in
other activities of this sort.
Today, Iranian drones are striking Kiyv, which is an attack on NATO because,
without NATO’s support, Kiyv would have fallen to the Russians long ago. Worse
still, the parts for these drones had been purchased from the US and Europe,
showing just how careless the Western and American strategy has been.
The threat posed by Iran’s militias was also underestimated. The plainest
example is the Houthis, who refuse to extend the ceasefire and continue to wreak
havoc in Yemen, and everyone knows that this is Iran’s decision, as the mullahs
want to use the Houthis to negotiate an end to the media coverage of the
protests. The mullahs have already targeted Saudi territory, only retreating
after realizing that such attacks would have dangerous repercussions for them.
Meanwhile, the presidential vacuum in Lebanon continues, and Iraq continues to
falter because of Iran’s militias.
On top of all of that, the regime is vicious with its own people, who have taken
to the streets to voice their opposition to the regime and its crimes, openly
attacking Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and calling for the downfall of his
regime.
In response, the Iranian regime has publicly executed youths in the streets and
barbarically tortured detainees, both men and women, beating, sexually
assaulting, and raping them in a clampdown of unprecedented savagery.
As all of this happens, the US and the West are satisfied with individual
sanctions on figures that don’t care about sanctions. If anything, these
sanctions boost their standing among their supporters and strengthen their
position within the regime, giving them an advantage over rivals in the mullah
regime’s obvious power struggle. And so, the question now for the United States
and Europe is: when will we see an end to this leniency in dealing with the
mullah regime, whose crimes in Iran and the region, as well as Ukraine, are
apparent for all to see? That is besides the attempts to kidnap individuals in
the US and its threats to British journalists over their coverage of the
protests in Iran.
For all these reasons, we should and expect to see an “automatic” resumption of
sanctions by the US and UN, and especially the EU, through the “snapback”
mechanism within the failed 2015 agreement.
If Iran is not declared a rogue state, who is? What human rights and stability
are the West, and before it, the US, talking about? For this reason, the
mullahs’ crimes should be dealt with, and the Iranian people should be
supported.
Khamenei in Ukraine!
Hazem Saghieh/Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper/December, 14/2022
In the mid-fifties, Egypt and Syria broke what had been known as the “West’s
monopoly on arms supply” in the Middle East. It was a consequential and
dangerous decision taken for many reasons: the new military and security regimes
wanted to distinguish themselves from the previous traditional regimes of
notables. Moreover, since the Western colonists were gone, their weapons had to
go with them, and the aim became reducing economic trade with them in favor of
whatever came of trade with their communist opponents. Finally, the conflict
with Israel requires different weapons from those obtained by Israel. Indeed, if
a Western gun never fought another Western gun, the only commodity Russia had
been famous for exporting was arms, and it was very generous with all who asked.
The “Arab masses” were called on to celebrate the decision, and so they did.
Indeed, the coup regimes’ legitimacy was weak, and they sought an achievement to
strengthen it; whenever there was an uproar, “popular legitimacy” would be made
a stand-in for constitutional legitimacy.
The fact is that it is difficult to defend monopoly, any monopoly, or armament,
any armament. However, it seems, at least by today’s standards, that matter was
not worth all the commotion it created. It could have been resolved differently,
more calmly and gradually, framed as part of the decolonization process and a
necessary requisite for reinforcing the sovereignty of newly independent states.
What happened instead is that Soviet arms strengthened the military-security
regimes in the region, undermining its relative stability and development
prospects and leaving it inextricably tied to the Cold War in Western Europe and
the Far East. As for Israel, the result of the biggest test put to the theories
that justified “breaking the West’s monopoly on arms supply,” the 1967 war,
attested to their misguidedness.
The reason for this return to the mid-fifties is that the region is currently
undergoing a strategic shift of the same caliber as “breaking the monopoly on
arms supply.”
Let us look into some of the panicked headlines of the past few days:
According to National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby, Russia and Iran
have formed a full-fledged defense partnership: the former is offering Iran
unprecedented military and technical support, and they are preparing to jointly
manufacture drones. According to Kirby, such a partnership will harm “Ukraine,
Iran’s neighbors, and the international community.” The National Security
Council spokesperson also did not deny that his country fears Russia intends to
“provide Iran with advanced military components,” including helicopters and air
defense systems.
UK Foreign Secretary James Cleverly has said he believes “Iran has become one of
Russia’s main military supporters” and that “the relationship between them was
threatening global security;” he also believes that this will increase the risks
facing “our partners in the Middle.” On top of that, Cleverly warned that Iran’s
support for Russia will become more robust over the next few months as the
latter is seeking more weapons, including hundreds of ballistic missiles.
Australia also made a statement, announcing that it was sanctioning Iranians and
Iranian institutions for supplying Russia with drones to use against Ukraine.
Its foreign minister, Penny Wong, said commenting on the supply of drones to
Russia that “it is evidence of the role Iran plays in destabilizing global
security.”
Ukraine has accused Iran of supplying Moscow with the same “kamikaze” drones
used on October 17. Tehran denied this at first, but it soon confirmed that it
had given Moscow a limited number of these drones “many months before the war.”
In turn, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky rebuffed Iran’s claims,
reminding us that the Ukrainian air force had shot down between 10 and 15 of the
kinds of drones that had been used in the south of the country and severely
damaged infrastructure and the electricity grid.
These facts and others lead us to the conclusion that Russia and Iran have
developed a comprehensive alliance, which has led to Iran taking part in the
Ukraine war. Just as Russia “has the right” to intervene in Syria alongside
Iran, Iran “has the right” to intervene in Ukraine alongside Russia. As for the
theory behind this shift, it is ready, just as it had been when the “West’s
monopoly on arms supply” was being broken: what else could it be but breaking
American unipolarity and standing up to the West’s arrogance etc.…
Just as the latter theory gave rise to interventionist policies backed by Nasser
and extended from Yemen to the Congo in the sixties, which were repeated by
Castro’s policies in the seventies that drove his forces to Angola and Ethiopia,
Iran has resumed this strategy: a bankrupt country under the grip of draconian
security forces that is facing a popular revolution has appointed itself the
“liberator” of an oppressed, downtrodden people. It could be said that
Khomeinist Iran is well-equipped to undertake this task since Iran has been
practicing in four or five Arab countries. However, getting involved in distant
Ukraine marks a qualitative shift in this regard, a shift that speaks volumes
about Iran, Russia, and their role in creating the miserable conditions we find
ourselves in today.
Institutionalized Discrimination: 1.1 Million Mosques vs
5,200 Churches in Egypt
Coptic Solidarity/Raymond Ibrahim/December, 14/2022
Egypt’s Ministry of Endowments recently announced a new record: an additional
1,200 new mosques were opened in the year 2022.
Moreover, in the two years between September 2020 and September 2022, a total of
3,116 mosques were opened (2,712 new; 404 renovated).
Since Abdel Fateh al-Sisi became president in 2014, the total number of mosques
to be opened, repaired, or replaced—costing Egypt more than ten billion
pounds—is 9,600.
(One can almost hear the “Allahu akbars!”)
What about the religious places of worship that, for centuries before Egypt’s
conquest by Muslim Arabs, littered that nation’s landscape—namely, Christian
churches? How fare they?
As is well known, when it comes to any question concerning the indigenous
Christians of Egypt, the Copts, and their churches, accurate
information—especially by way of numbers—is difficult to ascertain from the
official channels.
As such, I contacted and spoke with one of the most astute analysts on the
so-called Coptic question, the Egyptian-born Magdi Khalil, an author and public
debater (appearing in approximately 1,500 televised debates, including on Al
Jazeera) who specializes in citizenship rights, civil society, and the situation
of minorities in the Middle East.
During our phone conversation, Khalil offered up the best known figures he has
been able to ascertain, after making clear that, “as you know, there are no
absolutely accurate numbers from Egypt that aren’t politicized.”
He said there are a total of approximately 5,200 Christian institutions in
Egypt, including all churches and monasteries from every denomination. As for
Islamic institutions, there are 120,000 mosques and over one million prayer
halls in Egypt.
This disparity alone underscores the extreme discrimination Christians face in
Egypt. Considering that Copts of all denominations make up, at the very least,
10 percent of Egypt’s population of 104 million, there is one mosque or prayer
hall for every 83 Muslims, but only one church for every 2,000 Christians.*
In 2016, a new Egyptian law was touted as “easing” restrictions on and helping
many more churches to open. Since its implementation, however, human rights
groups have noted that it has only marginally helped. Khalil agreed, and said
that, at best, the 2016 law has made a “5-10 percent improvement.” But, by
applying only to churches, as opposed to being a universal law for all religious
places of worship, the new law has also formalized the Egyptian government’s
divisive—or in Khalil’s words, “racist”—approach to its citizens. He is not
alone in making this charge; even Human Rights Watch says that the new law
ultimately “discriminates against the Christian minority in Egypt.”
Along with the ease Egypt grants to the building of mosques, often overlooked is
the fact that the government also completely subsidizes a great many, if not
most, of Egypt’s mosques. (Over 4 billion Egyptian pounds are paid annually by
the state to subsidize the Ministry of Islamic Endowments, which is charged with
affairs related to mosques and Islamic da‘wa (propaganda). Moreover, 22 billion
Egyptian pounds are annually paid to Al Azhar, which has a parallel educational
system, or madrasa, from KG to university, with 2.8 million pupils and
students.)
Conversely, not only does Egypt make it immensely hard for Christians to open or
maintain churches, but the government does not contribute a “single penny” to
their survival, said Khalil. Churches are even required to pay their utility
bills, which no mosque in Egypt does, as the government happily picks up their
bill. Aside from the obvious discrimination and legal obstacles the government
of Egypt has set up against churches, Khalil and I also spoke a bit about the
Muslim mob violence that sporadically rises up against churches. According to
Khalil, “close to one thousand churches have been attacked or torched by mobs in
the last five decades [since the 1970s] in Egypt.” This is a much larger number
than is commonly assumed.
Khalil closed by saying, “The persecution of Egypt’s Christian Copts is the
longest ongoing persecution in the history of mankind, from 642, to today, 2022.
Through all this time, maybe 70 years under British occupation were peaceful and
good—the “golden era” for Copts in all this duration. Then [during the colonial
era] there was much more diversity in the government, including some Coptic
ministers, etc. But the overwhelming majority of the time witnessed the Copts’
persecution.”
“I know of no group,” concluded Khalil, “that has been persecuted for nearly
1400 years—with still no light at the end of the tunnel.”
*93.6 million Muslims divided by 1.12 million mosques and prayer halls, versus
10.4 million Christians divided by 5,200 churches.
Political divisions a major threat to Iranian regime
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/December 14, 2022
The Iranian regime is encountering several warning signs domestically that could
endanger its hold on power if not resolved or addressed adequately.
First of all, it is important to point out that the Iranian regime is
traditionally a monolithic establishment, in which the various political parties
and figures are united with one voice when it comes to major issues
domestically, regionally and globally. All the different political parties and
politicians are a critical part of the political establishment. Many of them,
including former President Hassan Rouhani, were robust supporters or founding
fathers of the Iranian theocracy. In addition, in order to be a politician in
Iran, one’s loyalty to the core pillars of the political establishment must be
firmly proven. Vilayat-e Faqih is the core pillar of Shiite political thought
expounded by the late Ayatollah Khomeini. It forces a guardianship-based
political system on the people and requires that a Shiite religious figure be
the leader of the nation.
Furthermore, another key requirement of being part of the state apparatus, to
run for public office or to be a politician is to endorse the basic rules of
supporting and obeying the supreme leader, as well as the mission of the Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps and other military forces to spread Iran’s
revolutionary and religious doctrines both inside the country and beyond its
borders.
If, at any point, someone shows even a slight sign of questioning, challenging
or disobeying these rules, or if their loyalty to the regime is doubted, they
will face severe consequences, including imprisonment, house arrest or
disqualification from running for office or even working for the theocratic
establishment.
Nevertheless, this unity now appears to be falling apart as a result of the
protests that erupted in September due to the death of Mahsa Amini. Major
political figures have begun criticizing the establishment. For example, former
President Mohammed Khatami last week warned the government and stood with the
protesters who are rising up against the theocratic regime. Khatami said: “I
advise the officials to appreciate this presence (of protesters) and instead of
dealing with it inappropriately, take a softer approach and listen to them and
with their help, recognize the wrong aspects of governance before it is too late
for them to move toward good governance. “It should not be allowed that freedom
and security be placed against each other, and as a result, freedom is trampled
under the pretext of maintaining security, or security, which is a condition for
the establishment of order and good order in society,” he added. Khatami also
endorsed the popular slogan, “Woman, life, freedom,” calling it a beautiful
message “that shows the movement toward a better future.”
In addition to political figures, some political parties are also warning the
regime to change its policies before it is too late. The reformist Democracy
Party issued an urgent statement in October demanding an overhaul of the system.
It stated: “There is an undeniable need to formulate a new constitution
according to the requirements of the day and in accordance with the new demands
of the people ... Only by holding a referendum to amend the constitution and
include the people’s demands and resolve the ambiguities can we hope to change
the situation, satisfy the people and also create hope for the future.”
Another warning sign is that large numbers of high-level public figures,
celebrities and athletes are supporting the protesters and turning against the
regime. Their support is unprecedented and is why the regime has threatened
celebrities, particularly actresses who are appearing publicly without the
mandatory headscarf. In September, Mohsen Mansouri, governor of the province of
Tehran, warned that the government would be dealing with “celebrities who fanned
the flames of riots and with those who sign (lucrative) contracts with radio and
television, but in a time of riots take a stand against security and order. Of
course, we may not deal with some cases immediately due to material reasons, but
without a doubt we will deal with them after a few days and at the right
time.”Large numbers of high-level public figures, celebrities and athletes are
supporting the protesters and turning against the regime.
Finally, some family members of the highest authorities in Iran are also
distancing themselves from the leadership. One prominent example is the sister
of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Badri Hosseini Khamenei, who this month
criticized the entire establishment and called for the overthrow of her
brother’s “despotic caliphate.” She wrote in an open letter: “The regime has
brought nothing but suffering and oppression to Iran and Iranians. I hope to see
the victory of the people and the overthrow of this tyranny ruling Iran soon.”
In summary, it is a significant warning to the Iranian regime that divisions are
appearing in the theocratic establishment and that celebrities and high-level
public figures are increasingly turning against the establishment and showing
support for the protesters.
*Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian-American political scientist.
Twitter: @Dr_Rafizadeh
Text & Video/Kurds Against the Iranian Regime: Internal and
Regional Implications
Abdullah Mohtadi, Shukriya Bradost, David Pollock
Washington Institute/December 14/2022
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/114061/114061/
Activists and experts discuss what Washington can do to curb Tehran’s violent
campaigns against Kurdish populations at home and next door in Iraq.
On December 8, The Washington Institute held a virtual Policy Forum with
Abdullah Mohtadi, Shukriya Bradost, and David Pollock. Mohtadi is
secretary-general of the Komala Party of Iranian Kurdistan. Bradost is an
Iranian Kurdish women’s rights activist and a doctoral candidate at Virginia
Tech University. Pollock is the Institute’s Bernstein Fellow and director of
Fikra Forum. The following is a rapporteur’s summary of their remarks and the
subsequent Q&A session.
Abdullah Mohtadi
Iran’s current protest movement began in the Kurdistan province and only then
spread to all corners of the country. The Cooperation Center of Iranian
Kurdistan’s Political Parties—a coalition between the Komala Party and the
Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan—was involved in the movement early on,
calling for strikes and demonstrations. Today, protesters’ continued use of the
Kurdish slogan “Women, Life, Freedom” as their trademark further shows the
importance of Kurds within the movement.
Fortunately, the revolution—as many are now calling it—is not confined to
Kurdish areas. The protests have overcome ethnic, religious, gender, and even
class barriers, showing unprecedented solidarity. In past movements, protests
were confined to the educated middle class and were narrowly focused on isolated
issues such as the economy. Today’s movement can be called a revolution because
protesters from all backgrounds and all parts of Iran are asking for fundamental
structural changes to the government.
Although the regime has attempted to blame the Kurds for the unrest and lure
them into using violence, both they and the Cooperation Center have shown
restraint. In their view, civil resistance is the best way to bring about
change. Meanwhile, many other Iranian protesters have rejected the regime’s
traditional narrative portraying the Kurds as violent separatists.
Just as the Cooperation Center has provided meaningful leadership in Kurdish
areas of Iran, local leaders are taking root in all other provinces and
establishing coordination. These leaders are connected via social media and have
sometimes met in person. Kurdish and non-Kurdish leaders, including the Komala
Party, are now working to form a united Iranian coalition capable of conveying
the voice of the revolution to the international community.
In the immediate term, the resistance asks for clear support from the United
States. The false narrative that Iranians hate Americans is no longer
viable—Kurdish and Iranian democratic activists alike are ready to meet with
U.S. officials and bear any consequences.
Shukriya Bradost
The centrality of women in the Iranian Kurdish resistance is not a new
phenomenon. For example, when I established a committee called “Women and Life”
in 2003 with my friends in Iranian Kurdistan, our demands were built upon years
of activism from Kurdish women. It is heartwarming to see that the same slogan
and values are still fueling the revolution today.
On a broader scale, it is important to note that the current movement is a
revolution against a regime that calls itself “revolutionary.” The
“revolutionary” label is significant because it has emboldened the regime to
portray itself as a regional model of innovation while it simultaneously denies
the Iranian people’s right to express their demands.
David Pollock
Throughout the current crackdown in Iran, the regime has simultaneously been
attacking Iraqi Kurdistan under the guise of targeting “opposition” groups, when
in reality these attacks are killing innocent Kurds. Why is the regime exerting
so much energy against civilians next door? The main theories—that Tehran seeks
to distract from the unrest at home, or that it truly sees Iraqi Kurdistan as a
credible threat in itself—are unconvincing. So far, there has been no evidence
to suggest that Iraqi Kurds are offering anything other than moral support for
Iran’s movement, and the regime surely knows this.
Instead, the cross-border attacks are more likely a preventive measure against
what the regime sees as a possible future coalition between domestic and
external forces. The intensity and continuity of these attacks show how deeply
Tehran fears this possibility—a point driven home when Supreme Leader Ali
Khamenei met with Iraqi prime minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani on November 29
and essentially asked him to provide protection against the Kurdish “threat.”
Meanwhile, regime-linked Iranian newspapers refer to this ongoing campaign as an
“extermination” of the separatist Kurdish threat.
Unfortunately, Baghdad seems inclined to cooperate with Iran on this matter,
attempting to balance between Tehran’s powerful influence and a desire to
preserve Iraqi sovereignty. Similarly, the Kurdistan Regional Government is
caught between multiple dilemmas: sympathy for Iranian Kurds; a desire to remain
independent of Iranian influence; deep internal problems, including an inability
to defend itself against Iran; and ongoing reliance on Baghdad.
The United States is perhaps the only entity that can protect Iraq and Iraqi
Kurdistan from Iran, but so far it does not appear to have offered such support.
The Biden administration should urgently put an offer on the table—one carefully
coordinated with Baghdad and Erbil alike.
Q&A Session
Regarding the potential for Iranian opposition groups to develop into competing
factions, Mohtadi noted that a dynamic civil society has been able to take root
inside the country despite decades of oppression. This resilience has helped the
current protesters sideline potentially divisive factors such as ethnicity,
religion, and class in favor of unity. Although factionalism is theoretically
possible, opposition groups have been trending toward convergence rather than
divergence.
Regarding U.S. obligations to Iraqi Kurds, Bradost pointed out that Washington’s
past withdrawal agreement with Baghdad included a promise to protect the country
against terrorist attacks. Iran’s attacks against Iraqi Kurdistan necessarily
fall under that pledge because they are being carried out by the Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), a U.S.-designated terrorist organization. The
United States must be true to its word and protect Iraqi Kurds, especially since
they have been left behind as relatively easy targets for Iran in comparison to
places such as Saudi Arabia or Azerbaijan.
As for Iranian opposition groups, Mohtadi noted that they are not asking for
boots on the ground or weapons, but simply political support. Bradost added that
the United States can help Iranians by simply eliminating any channels through
which the regime receives Western funds or resources.
Regarding the possibility of progress without regime change, Mohtadi doubted
that any tangible improvements can be made in Iran unless the current
authorities are removed from power. Bradost noted that by casting itself as a
“revolutionary” government, the regime sees no need to make concessions, not
even partial changes. From Tehran’s point of view, if one major component of
regime ideology gets knocked down (e.g., the morality laws), the rest will fall
with it.
As for next steps toward a peaceful revolution, it is important to keep an eye
on the attitudes and actions of IRGC forces. Some reports indicate that
confusion, doubt, and reluctance are developing in certain IRGC circles, but it
is difficult to tell whether these sentiments will translate into widespread
defections. Protesters fully intend to remain peaceful at the moment, but this
peace is not guaranteed and depends entirely on whether the regime escalates its
already considerable violence.
This summary was prepared by Frances McDonough. The Policy Forum series is made
possible through the generosity of the Florence and Robert Kaufman Family.