English LCCC Newsbulletin For
Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For January 22/2022
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news
The Bulletin's Link on the
lccc Site
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/aaaanewsfor2021/english.january22.22.htm
News
Bulletin Achieves Since 2006
Click Here to enter the LCCC Arabic/English news bulletins Achieves since 2006
Bible Quotations For today
Then Jesus summoned his twelve disciples and gave them authority over unclean
spirits, to cast them out, and to cure every disease and every sickness
Saint Matthew 10/01-07/:”Then Jesus summoned his
twelve disciples and gave them authority over unclean spirits, to cast them out,
and to cure every disease and every sickness. These are the names of the twelve
apostles: first, Simon, also known as Peter, and his brother Andrew; James son
of Zebedee, and his brother John; Philip and Bartholomew; Thomas and Matthew the
tax-collector; James son of Alphaeus, and Thaddaeus; Simon the Cananaean, and
Judas Iscariot, the one who betrayed him. These twelve Jesus sent out with the
following instructions: ‘Go nowhere among the Gentiles, and enter no town of the
Samaritans, but go rather to the lost sheep of the house of Israel. As you go,
proclaim the good news, “The kingdom of heaven has come near.”
Question: "Does salvation affect more than just the
afterlife?"
GotQuestions.org?/January 21, 2022
Answer: We often emphasize how salvation impacts the afterlife but neglect to
consider how it should impact our lives right now. Coming to Christ in faith is
life’s watershed in so many ways—once we are saved, we are set free from sin and
given a new life and a new perspective. As John Newton put it, “I once was lost
but now am found, / Was blind but now I see.” After salvation, everything
changes. In the Epistles we also find a consistent emphasis on daily living.
According to Ephesians 2:10, the reason we are saved is not just to spend
eternity in heaven but “to do good works, which God prepared in advance for us
to do.” These “good works” are to be done here, in this world. If our eternal
salvation isn’t reflected in our daily lives, there is a problem. James wrote
his letter to encourage an applied faith. Our salvation ought to result in a
controlled tongue (James 1:26) and other changes in our lives. Faith that
purports to exist apart from the evidence of good works is “dead” (James 2:20).
Paul wrote in 1 Thessalonians 2:12 that we should “live lives worthy of God, who
calls you into his kingdom and glory.” A life that is surrendered and obedient
to God is a natural outgrowth of salvation. Jesus taught that we are His
servants, placed here to carry on His business while we await His return (Luke
19:12–27). In the book of Revelation, God sends letters to seven churches
(Revelation 2—3), and in each case there are specific areas of daily living that
are either commended or condemned. The church of Ephesus was recognized for
their labors and patience, and the church of Smyrna was commended for
faithfulness in trials and poverty. On the other end of the spectrum, the church
of Pergamos was rebuked for tolerating false doctrine, and the church at
Thyatira was rebuked for following a false teacher into sexual sins. Obviously,
Jesus considered salvation something that should affect one’s daily life, not
just the afterlife.
Salvation is the beginning point of a new life (2 Corinthians 5:17). God has
ability to restore and rebuild what was destroyed by sin. In Joel 2:25, God
promises Israel that, even though He had brought judgment upon them for their
sins, He is able to “restore to you the years that the swarming locust has
eaten” (ESV), when Israel repents and returns to Him. A similar restoration is
promised Israel in Zechariah 10:6. This is not to say that getting saved makes
everything happy and trouble-free in this life. There are times that God chooses
to allow hardship as a reminder of the high cost of sin or of our need to rely
on Him more. But we face those trials with a new outlook and strength from
above. In fact, the hardships we endure are actually gifts from God to cause us
to grow in faith and to equip us to be a blessing to others (2 Corinthians
1:4–6; 12:8–10).
In Jesus’ ministry, everyone who came to Him in faith was forever changed. The
demoniac of Decapolis went home an evangelist (Mark 5:20). Lepers rejoined
society, cleansed and rejoicing (Luke 17:15–16). Fishermen became apostles
(Matthew 4:19), publicans became philanthropists, and sinners became saints
(Luke 19:8–10). By faith we are saved (Ephesians 2:8), and the change that
salvation brings starts now.
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials
published on January 21-22/2022
Corona - Health Ministry: 5628 new Corona cases, 15 deaths
U.S. Treasury Sanctions 'International Hizbullah Network'
President Aoun meets honorary consular corps, addresses security situation with
Minister Sleem
Report: Aoun Infuriates Shea with Remarks on Interference
Mikati chairs two meetings over World Bank projects in Lebanon
Report: Miqati Keen Not to Provoke Shiite Duo
Rahi discusses developments with UN’s Wronecka, meets General Secretariat of
Catholic Schools
Lebanon to Sign Electricity Deal with Jordan Next Week
Hariri chairs Future bloc meeting at Center House
Defense Minister receives French delegation
Lebanese Climbing and Mountainering Federation elects first administrative body
Lebanese elections: Former PM Hariri in key meetings
Titles For The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published on
January 21-22/2022
Report: Israeli fighter jets, refueling planes hold massive drill aimed
at Tehran
'Decisive' moment nears as West sees only weeks to salvage Iran nuclear deal
West Warns Iran amid ‘Modest Progress’ at Vienna Talks
Iran, Russia and China Begin Joint Naval Drill
UN Security Council slams Houthi’s ‘heinous terrorist attacks’ on Abu Dhabi
US commits to helping Saudi Arabia, Gulf partners defend against threats from
Yemen
UAE envoy hails Security Council censure of Houthis as crucial step toward
justice
UAE has ‘legal’ right to self-defense against Houthi terrorist acts: Gargash
U.S., Russia Agree to Come Back 'Next Week' on Ukraine Crisis
Is There a Link Between Syria and Ukraine?
IS Gunmen Mount Deadly Attacks in Syria, Iraq; Dozens Killed
ISIS Gunmen in Iraq Kill 11 Soldiers in Brazen Barracks Attack
Egypt Rejects Israel’s Demolition of Palestinian Home in Sheikh Jarrah
Israel Releases Palestinians Held After Eviction
Palestinian Minister: Biden Moving Too Slow on Pushing Peace
US Won’t Resume Assistance to Sudan Without Civilian Gov’t
US Considers Redesignating Houthis as Terror Group
Texas Islamic Scholar Abdulrazzak Junaid: Feminism Aims To Enslave Women In
Capitalist Society; Islam Has Given Women Their Rights At A Level No Western
Society Can Match
D.C. Imam Abdul Alim Musa: We Apologize To Iran, Hizbullah, And Want To
Normalize Sacrifice And Striking Back; The Americans Have Been Taken Over By The
Zionists And We Want You To Help Us Fight Them; U.S. Government Is Evil/
Canada/Minister Joly meets with Josep Borrell, High Representative of the
European Union
Canada/Government of Canada announces loan of up to $120
million to support Ukraine’s economic resilience and development
Titles For The Latest The Latest LCCC
English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on
January 21-22/2022
Iran's regime is the source of the Israel-Iran conflict - opinion/Mark
Regev/Jerusalem Post/January 21/2022
Biden saves Iran from itself/Richard Goldberg/Washington Examinar/January 21,
2022
Congress Delivers Bipartisan Warning to Biden on Syria Policy/David Adesnik/Policy
Brief/January 21, 2022
Iranian attacks in Iraq reflect weakness, disarray/Jonathan Spyer/Jerusalem
Post/January 21/2022
The Russia-China Axis of Authoritarianism: Part I/Testing Western Resolve in
Ukraine and Taiwan/Soeren Kern/Gatestone Institute/January 21/2022
Two Questions about the Vienna Charade/Amir Taheri/Asharq Al-Awsat/January
21/2022
Taking Biden seriously/Khairallah Khairallah/The Arab Weekly/January 21/2022
Abu Dhabi attack shows talking to Iran is futile/Hussain Abdul-Hussain/The Arab
Weekly/January 21/2022
Iran protests show regime that change is in the air/Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab
News/January 21, 2022
on January 21-22/2022
Corona - Health Ministry: 5628 new Corona cases, 15 deaths
NNA/January 21, 2022
In its daily report on the COVID-19 developments, the Ministry of Public Health
announced on Friday the registration of 5628 new infections with the Coronavirus,
which raised the cumulative number of confirmed cases to-date to 853,252.The
report added that 15 deaths were recorded during the past 24 hours.
U.S. Treasury Sanctions 'International Hizbullah Network'
Naharnet/January 21, 2022
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/105770/u-s-treasury-sanctions-international-hizbullah-network/
The U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) on
Friday designated “Hizbullah-affiliated financial facilitator Adnan Ayad,” as
well as “members of an international network of facilitators and companies
connected to him and to Adel Diab, Adnan Ayad’s business partner and fellow
Hizbullah financier who was designated by OFAC on January 18, 2022,” it said in
a statement. “The sanctions evasion efforts of those designated today
demonstrate how Hizbullah gains access to the international financial system and
raises funds in support of its acts of terrorism and other illicit activities.
These actions undermine the stability, security, and sovereignty of the Lebanese
people,” the Treasury added. It said “Hizbullah-linked financial facilitators”
like Adnan Ayad and Adel Diab have “helped Hizbullah obtain funds through
networks of companies that operate under the guise of legitimate business
enterprises.”“The designation of the Hizbullah financing network described below
further demonstrates Treasury’s ongoing efforts to target Hizbullah’s attempts
to exploit the global financial sector and evade sanctions,” the Treasury added.
“Today’s action exposes and targets Hizbullah’s misuse of the international
financial system to raise and launder funds for its destabilizing activities as
the Lebanese people suffer during an unprecedented economic crisis in Lebanon,”
said U.S. Under Secretary of the Treasury for Terrorism and Financial
Intelligence Brian E. Nelson. “Treasury is committed to disrupting Hizbullah’s
illicit activity and attempts to evade sanctions through business networks while
the group doubles down on corrupt patronage networks in Lebanon,” he added. The
Treasury said Adnan Ayad is a “Hizbullah member and businessman who, with
recently designated Hizbullah financier Adel Diab, operates an international
network of companies.”“Adnan Ayad and Adel Diab have used their Lebanon-based
company Al Amir Co. for Engineering, Construction, and General Trade SARL to
raise funds and launder money for Hizbullah,” the Treasury charged.
The Treasury has also sanctioned the Zambia-based Hamer and Nail Construction
Limited and Hamidco Investment Limited and the Lebanon-based Al Amir Co. for
Engineering, Construction and General Trading SARL, Golden Group SAL Offshore,
Inshaat Co SARL, Land Metics SARL, Landmetics SAL Off-Shore, Golden Group
Trading SARL, Top Fashion Gmbh Konfektionsbügelei, and Jammoul and Ayad for
Industry and Trade. The Treasury had on Tuesday imposed similar sanctions on
three “Hizbullah-linked financial facilitators and their Lebanon-based travel
company.”
US slaps sanctions on Hezbollah-linked men, companies
for second time this week
Joseph Haboush, Al Arabiya English/21 January ,2022
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/105770/u-s-treasury-sanctions-international-hizbullah-network/
The US Treasury Department on Friday sanctioned three Lebanese men linked to
Hezbollah and ten companies based in Lebanon, Zambia and Germany. A statement
from the Treasury Department said that Friday’s announcement showed how
Hezbollah gained access to the international financial system to raise funds “in
support of its acts of terrorism and other illicit activities.”“These actions
undermine the stability, security, and sovereignty of the Lebanese people,” the
statement read. Adnan Ayad and his son Jihad were designated alongside Ali Adel
Diab, whose father Adel was sanctioned earlier in the week.
Adnan and Jihad also have German citizenship, according to the Treasury
Department.Two of the sanctioned companies are based in Zambia, one in Germany
and the rest in Lebanon. All three individuals and the companies were used to
raise funds and launder money to Hezbollah, the Treasury Department said. For
his part, Under Secretary of the Treasury for Terrorism and Financial
Intelligence Brian Nelson said that Washington was committed to disrupting
Hezbollah’s attempts to evade sanctions. “Today’s action exposes and targets
Hezbollah’s misuse of the international financial system to raise and launder
funds for its destabilizing activities as the Lebanese people suffer during an
unprecedented economic crisis in Lebanon,” he said. Friday’s move comes just
days after three other men and their Lebanon-based travel company were
designated for facilitating and laundering finances to Hezbollah.
President Aoun meets honorary consular corps, addresses security situation with
Minister Sleem
NNA/January 21, 2022
President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, hoped that the new year would be
the beginning of Lebanon's revival from the successive crises it had witnessed,
and that Lebanon would be stronger than it was before, “Because it is a country
worthy of life”.
The President stressed that he will make all efforts to achieve this goal.
In addition, President Aoun affirmed that work is underway, especially with the
Cabinet, in order to complete the expected recovery plan, wishing everyone
cooperation for the benefit of the Lebanese people, who can no longer tolerate
more life complications.
Positions of President Aoun came while meeting the members of the consular
corps, on the traditional annual visit to exchange greetings with the advent of
the new year.
Consul Habees:
The Dean of the Consular Corps, Joseph Habees, thanked President Aoun for
receiving him and the members of the corps, expressing his happiness for the
return of the meeting after a forced break last year.
Consul Habees said:
“Mr. President,
Today, as an honorary consular corps in Lebanon, we are pleased to return to the
custom that we loved, which is to meet you with the advent of the glorious
holidays, to wish you continued health and wellness, after the tragic health
conditions experienced by Lebanon and the whole world last year, breaking the
tradition of not meeting.
Our visit today, Mr. President, is also to renew our confidence in your vision,
wisdom, and determination to bring Lebanon out of the raging crises and
difficulties, which are the worst in its modern history.
Mr. President, the challenges are unfortunately great and increasing. As
consuls, we have accompanied the dire consequences, and we have always been a
link between the countries we represent and Lebanon, which we carry in our heart
and mind, to do everything necessary to alleviate the tragedies and suffering of
the Lebanese people.
For the truth, the countries that we represent have not been late in providing
humanitarian, social and medical aid and donations, and we have been able to
play our role in coordinating and assisting as events unfold, especially after
the painful explosion in the port of Beirut and the human and material losses
that Lebanon continues to suffer from it until today.
As you know, Mr. President, the honorary consular corps includes businessmen and
economists who have large institutions comprising thousands of administrators
and employees, united and determined to confront the financial and economic
crisis that Lebanon is going through. They continue to preserve Lebanese
institutions and workers, out of their belief in their country and people and in
support of the national economy in this hard time.
In this context, we can only thank Your Excellency for your support of the
Consular Corps, as it performs a public service.
Your Excellency, it is not the first time that danger threatens Lebanon, but we
are certain that our beloved Lebanon will, as always, be able to overcome
dangers, even after suffering, but the most important thing remains to preserve
the unity of the Lebanese, which is something you have always bet on. And you
worked for it, and perhaps your desire to communicate with every Lebanese inside
and outside Lebanon is the best proof of that, and it gives us all hope that the
integration of the endeavors of the residents and diaspora will form the bridge
of salvation hoped for the revival of Lebanon and its return to its former era,
a message of life and beauty, and you will find us with you in this difficult
path. We put all our capabilities and relations at your disposal, and we are
provided with your directives to consolidate, strengthen and activate the
relations that bring Lebanon together with the countries of the whole world.
I, as I renew to you, Mr. President, my heartfelt congratulations on my behalf
and on behalf of the honorary consular corps on the glorious holidays, I hope
that our dear Lebanon will be on a date with better days, and that the Lebanese
will enjoy contentment and prosperity.
Long live Mr. President, long live Lebanon”.
President Aoun:
For his part, President Aoun welcomed the members of the consular corps in
Lebanon, in the annual tradition followed, and wished them a year of peace,
goodness and success for them and the countries they represent.
The President said: "We hope that the new year will be much better than the
difficult years we went through. You were the best helper for Lebanon,
especially in the disasters that afflicted it. You rose to save Lebanon,
especially after the explosion that occurred in the port of Beirut, and you had
white hands in healing the wounds of our capital”.
"I cannot but also renew my thanks to the countries you represent, for their
assistance to Lebanon, especially since it has known not a single crisis, but
rather an accumulation of crises that brought it to this situation, and I have
always warned of its consequences. We hope that this assistance will continue to
Lebanon” President Aoun said.
Minister Sleem:
The President received Minister of National Defense, Maurice Sleem, and
discussed the security situation and the status and needs of the Lebanese Army
institution. -- Presidency Press Office
Report: Aoun Infuriates Shea with Remarks on
Interference
Naharnet/January 21, 2022
President Michel Aoun’s remarks in his meeting with the diplomatic corps
regarding alleged foreign support for some civil society groups have irritated
U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon Dorothy Shea, a media report said on Friday.
“Speaking in front of Awkar visitors, Shea expressed dismay over the President’s
statements, rejecting the accusations against her country and claiming that the
President’s escalation had political motives related to the failure of several
mediations aimed at removing Strong Lebanon bloc chief Jebran Bassil’s name from
the sanctions list,” ad-Diyar newspaper reported. “She accused the President of
creating a fictional enemy that would help his political movement in the
upcoming elections,” the daily added. “She also claimed that her country is
offering humanitarian and not political aid to some civil society groups, away
from the state agencies that are rife with corruption,” ad-Diyar said. In an
apparent jab at Washington and other capitals, Aoun said in his speech Thursday
that “some sides bypassed the duty of coordinating with state institutions and
directly dealt with associations and groups, some of which popped up like
mushrooms after the port blast.” “They are taking advantage of the material and
humanitarian support for political objectives and under ambiguous slogans,
especially that Lebanon is on the eve of parliamentary elections,” the President
added.
Mikati chairs two meetings over World Bank projects in
Lebanon
NNA/January 21, 2022
Prime Minister, Najib Mikati, on Friday chaired a meeting at the Grand Serail
devoted to discussing World Bank projects in support of the energy sector in
Lebanon. In the wake of the meeting, Energy Minister, Walid Fayad, said: "We’ve
discussed the plan to revive the electricity sector via the adoption of parallel
paths, which mainly include increasing power feeding hours as quickly as
possible, and mitigating squandering within the energy sector.”Fayad added that
tariffs must be increased to cover the bulk of the cost to Electricité du Liban,
which will provide citizens with electricity at a cheaper cost. “75 percent of
subscribers will benefit from the service at a cost of less than 14 cents per
kilowatt/hour; the expected cost per household will be 60 percent less than the
cost of private generators,” Fayad explained. As for inking an energy contract
with the Jordanian side and the possibility of increasing the power feeding
hours, he said: "We are discussing the financing process with the World Bank.
Meanwhile, Jordanians and Egyptians must be fully assured that the contract will
not be subjected to any negative repercussions as a result of Caesar Act. This
should be done within the next two months, before the beginning of spring.”The
Prime Minister then chaired a meeting devoted to discussing World Bank’s social
protection projects in Lebanon. He later received head of Byblos Municipalities
Union, Fadi Martinos, who briefed him on the problems that the city was facing
with regard to waste treatment.
Report: Miqati Keen Not to Provoke Shiite Duo
Naharnet /January 21, 2022
Prime Minister Najib Miqati has expressed his keenness on refraining from any
move that may be perceived as a “provocation” by the Shiite Duo, sources close
to Hizbullah and Amal Movement said. Miqati had on Thursday called for a Cabinet
session to be held Monday at the Baabda Palace, which would be the first Cabinet
meeting since October 14 when a political crisis erupted over the Beirut port
blast investigations. “The session will be held with full quorum and in the
presence of the Shiite Duo’s ministers,” al-Joumhouria newspaper reported.
The Duo’s participation in the session is “a translation of its declared stance
that it would attend sessions dedicated to the draft state budget, the recovery
plan and any agenda item related to improving the living conditions of the
Lebanese,” sources close to the Duo said.“Accordingly, there will be no
deviation from the decided agenda on Monday, and this will be in agreement with
the Prime Minister,” the sources added.
Rahi discusses developments with UN’s Wronecka, meets
General Secretariat of Catholic Schools
NNA/January 21, 2022
Maronite Patriarch, Cardinal Mar Bechara Boutros Al-Rahi, on Friday welcomed at
the patriarchal edifice in Bkerki, UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon, Joanna
Wronecka, with whom he discussed the current situation.
Al-Rahi also held talks with a delegation representing the General Secretariat
of Catholic Schools, headed by Father Youssef Nasr.
Lebanon to Sign Electricity Deal with Jordan Next Week
Agence France Presse/January 21, 2022
Crisis-hit Lebanon will sign a deal with Jordan next week to bring in
electricity via Syria to help ease grueling power cuts, Energy Minister Walid
Fayyad has told AFP. The agreement, which comes as the country grapples with
round-the-clock power cuts, is part of a wider government effort to eventually
provide state power for eight to 10 hours a day, up from just two now in most
parts of the country. "The deal is important primarily because it will increase
state power supply, which is cleaner and cheaper" than electricity produced by
"expensive and polluting private generators," Fayyad told AFP in an interview.
The minister said a visiting Jordanian delegation would sign the deal in Beirut
next Wednesday before heading to Damascus, where Jordanian and Lebanese
officials are set to sign a transit agreement with Syria.
The deal will provide Lebanon with up to 250 megawatts of electricity during the
day and 150 megawatts at night, equivalent to a total of two additional hours of
power, Fayad said. Two years into Lebanon's economic meltdown, the cash-strapped
state is struggling to purchase fuel for its power stations.
With state power effectively non-existent, many rely on private generators, but
prices have increased after the government lifted fuel subsides. Lebanon has
been importing fuel oil from Iraq to operate its power plants in recent months.
The government is also in talks with Egypt to import gas through the Arab Gas
Pipeline, which passes through Jordan, Syria and Lebanon. Beirut and Cairo are
currently finalizing commercial agreements so that the two sides can sign a deal
by spring, Fayyad said. By importing Jordanian electricity, Iraqi fuel and
Egyptian gas, Lebanon hopes to boost power output to eight to 10 hours a day in
the coming months, Fayyad added. Lebanon's crumbling electricity sector has cost
the country more than $40 billion since the end of its 1975-1990 civil war. "The
solutions we are proposing will quickly boost power supply and will provide a
sustainable solution for the country, especially with regard to Egyptian gas,"
Fayyad said. Importing electricity from Jordan will cost about $200 million per
year, he added, while importing gas from Egypt will cost about the same amount.
"We secured an initial $300 million from the World Bank and we are working to
secure an additional $100 million," Fayyad said.
Hariri chairs Future bloc meeting at Center House
NNA/January 21, 2022
Former Prime Minister, Saad Hariri, on Friday chaired "Future" parliamentary
bloc meeting at the Center House, with discussions focusing on the issue of the
upcoming legislative elections, as well as the current general situation.
Defense Minister receives French delegation
NNA/January 21, 2022
Minister of National Defense, Maurice Sleem, on Friday welcomed in his office at
the Ministry the Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the French
National Assembly, Jean Louis Bourlanges, at the head of a delegation,
accompanied by French Ambassador to Lebanon, Anne Grillo.
Minister Sleem stressed that Lebanon highly appreciates France’s support for the
Lebanese army and its multi-dimensional role at the defense, security and social
levels. For his part, Bourlanges underlined France's continued support for
Lebanon, especially for the Lebanese army, “which represents the main pillar of
the Lebanese state," hoping that Lebanon will overcome its crises.
Lebanese Climbing and Mountainering Federation elects first
administrative body
NNA/January 21, 2022
The Lebanese Climbing and Mountainering Federation endorsed by the decision No.
139/2/2022 of the minister of Sports, held a General Assembly to elect its first
administrative body. The assembly took place at the Ministry of Youth and Sports
in the presence of the head of the sports department, Mr. Mohammed Oweidat, in
addition to the representatives of sports associations and candidates.
Given that the number of candidates presented was equal to the number of
required members for the governing body of the Federation, Mr. Oweidat announced
the winning of the seven candidates acclaiming their unopposed election and
congratulated them, calling on them to work for the growth and benefit of sports
and athletes in Lebanon.
Following the official announcement of the winners, the elected administrative
body held a private session to distribute the structural roles of the
Federation. The session was headed by the eldest member Pascal Abdallah, and the
below positions were voted:
President: Khodr Ghadban
Vice president: Avedis Kalpaklian
Secretary General: Khattar Abdel Khalek
Public Relations and Media: Stephanie Audi
Studies and programs: Pascal Abdallah
Activities and Competitions: Lindos Daou
Treasurer: Imad Abu Ibrahim
Lebanese elections: Former PM Hariri in key meetings
Najia Houssari/Arab News/January 22, 2022
Former MP and Vice-President of the Future Movement Mustapha Allouch told Arab
News: “So far, we haven’t been informed of Hariri’s decision and all the other
matters affiliated to that decision”
BEIRUT: Just four people have submitted their candidacies for Lebanon’s
parliamentary elections planned for May since the nomination process opened on
Jan. 10.The next house of representatives will elect a new president in October,
five months after the parliamentary elections.
Some 250,000 Lebanese expats have registered abroad to vote in the upcoming
elections to choose 128 MPs. Only one-third of them registered for the previous
elections, reflecting enthusiasm for change.Zeina Helou, an expert in local
affairs, told Arab News that those who submitted their candidacies belonged to
the opposition.Helou said there was a delay in the process because opposition
figures had been questioning the possibility of parliamentary elections going
ahead. There were further delays due to the electoral law requiring candidates
to join electoral lists to qualify as a contestant.
FASTFACT
The parliamentary elections are expected to be heated as the Lebanese people are
motivated for political upheaval in a system accused of corruption. Candidates
are also required to deposit LBP30 million ($19,800), which is far higher than
the LBP8 million deposit for previous parliamentary elections.
Helou said that things might take shape when registration of the candidates’
lists begins, with the deadline set between Mar. 16 and April 4. Amid the low
candidacy numbers, the ruling political forces were still studying the
possibility of maintaining their electoral allies, with several alliances broken
up as a result of the political crisis.The mystery surrounding the position of
former Prime Minister Saad Hariri, who returned to Beirut on Thursday morning,
has increased their frustration. He left Lebanon last June following his refusal
to form a government. Hariri met with the members of his bloc, with reports
indicating that he will not nominate himself for the upcoming elections, leaving
his bloc’s MPs the choice to participate or not. Former MP and Vice-President of
the Future Movement Mustapha Allouch told Arab News: “So far, we haven’t been
informed of Hariri’s decision and all the other matters affiliated to that
decision.”Allouch said Hariri was holding several meetings and the picture might
be clearer next week. The political rumor mill has suggested that Hariri’s
political allies, led by Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri and Leader of the
Progressive Socialist Party Walid Jumblatt, will seek to convince him to run for
elections or to let the Future Movement participate, as their absence will leave
a void on the Sunni scene. There are mounting fears regarding Sunni
representation as influential figures are reluctant to run for elections. Former
Prime Minister Tammam Salam announced on Thursday that he was unwilling to run
for parliament. Nazih Njeim, a member of the Future Movement, revealed that a
number of the party’s MPs will not run for elections if Hariri does not put
himself forward. He said: “When the Sunni component is not doing well, this
reflects badly on the country.”
Public affairs expert Dr. Walid Fakhreddin said: “Hariri’s decision not to run
for elections seems to be settled, knowing that he partly bears responsibility
for the collapse of the country and specifically for the settlement that brought
about Michel Aoun as the president.”
He added that other political forces in power were also hit at the core. “The
Free Patriotic Movement is destroyed at the grassroots level, and at the
internal level, there will be fights between rivals of the same party on the
same seat. The Progressive Socialist Party will re-nominate its deputies.”
He said: “We can also say while the popularity of Hezbollah and the Amal
Movement was affected in some districts, it is no longer impossible to break it
in other districts. “We will witness a confrontation between the ruling class
and the opposition. “The ruling parties will fight each other, and the
opposition may have more than a list in a few districts.”
The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous
Reports And News published on
January 21-22/2022
Report: Israeli fighter jets, refueling planes hold massive
drill aimed at Tehran
Times Of Israel/January 21, 2022
Maneuvers seen as intended to plan for strike on Iran, Saudi-owned Elaph claims,
month after New York Times reveals new tankers seen as key to threat won’t
arrive before late 2024
Israeli fighter jets carried out a large drill over the Mediterranean that
included practicing mid-air refueling, according to a report in a Saudi-run news
outlet Thursday. The unverified report in London-based Elaph described air
maneuvers on Thursday by “an unusually large” contingent of F-15, F-16 and F-35
fighter craft, as well as Boeing mid-air refueling tankers, in what would likely
be seen as a warning beacon to Iran amid Israeli threats to take military action
in order to stop Tehran’s nuclear program. Citing an unnamed Arab source, Elaph
reported that the “wide” maneuver took place over the Mediterranean. Israeli
defense officials, who rarely comment on foreign reports, could not be
immediately reached. The use of Israel’s aging mid-air refueling fleet would be
the strongest indication that Israel is planning for an attack on Iran’s nuclear
facilities, or would like to project to Tehran and the rest of the world that it
is preparing. Israel rarely advertises its use of the refueling craft in drills
publicly, but they are occasionally used for exhibitions. In 2013, mid-air
refueling tankers were used publicly as part of a large drill involving nearly
all air squadrons practicing for an attack on a long-range target, against a
similar backdrop of tensions with Iran. That time, the Israel Defense Forces
uploaded videos to YouTube showing F-15 and F-16 fighter jets refueling mid-air
over the water, following the exercise, which reportedly took place near Greece.
According to reports at the time, the clips marked the first time the IDF had
ever published videos showing its mid-air refueling capabilities. Because of the
distance, carrying out an airstrike inside Iran and having enough fuel for the
return trip would require Israeli planes to refuel in the sky or find a friendly
airbase to land at. A report in the New York Times last month, however,
indicated that Israeli plans for a possible strike on Iran had been set back by
delays in the delivery of eight new Boeing KC-47 supertankers, with consignment
expected to take until late 2024 at least.Current and former officials quoted in
the report said Israeli military planners believe that any strike on Iran will
likely require multiple sorties against some sites, such as the underground
Fordo uranium enrichment facility, necessitating speedy refueling. The $2.4
billion deal for the eight planes was signed in March. Israel is vocally opposed
to the Iran nuclear deal, which US President Joe Biden has said he wants to
rejoin after his predecessor Donald Trump withdrew the US from the pact in 2018
and reimposed sanctions. Tehran has since steadily increased its breaches of the
accord. Elaph, owned by Saudi businessman and journalist Othman Al Omeir, is
seen by some as a conduit for Israeli messaging into the wider Arab world. The
outlet regularly features news out of Israel and has interviewed a number of top
defense figures over the years, including former defense minister Avigdor
Liberman, former IDF head Gadi Eisenkot and others.The reported drill comes as
talks aimed at bringing the US back into the deal have foundered, with officials
in the US and Europe saying that time for reaching a renewed pact is running
low.Israel, which has largely opposed the agreement, has said that it reserves
the right to take military action to protect its citizens regardless of what
happens in Vienna.
On Wednesday, Biden said progress in nuclear talks was being made and advised
against cutting them off
https://www.timesofisrael.com/report-israeli-fighter-jets-refueling-planes-hold-massive-drill-aimed-at-tehran/
'Decisive' moment nears as West sees only weeks to salvage
Iran nuclear deal
Reuters/John Irish and Simon Lewis/January 21, 2022
The United States and its European allies said on Thursday that it was now just
a matter of weeks to salvage the 2015 Iran nuclear deal after a round of talks
in which a French diplomatic source said there had been no progress on the core
issues.Indirect talks between Iran and the United States on reviving the nuclear
deal resumed almost two months ago. Western diplomats have previously indicated
they were hoping to have a breakthrough over the next few weeks, but sharp
differences remain with the toughest issues still unresolved. Iran has rejected
any deadline imposed by Western powers. Diplomats and analysts say the longer
Iran remains outside the deal, the more nuclear expertise it will gain,
shortening the time it might need to race to build a bomb if it chose to,
thereby undermining the accord's original purpose. Tehran denies it has ever
sought to develop nuclear arms.
"We are indeed at a decisive moment," U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken
told a news conference after meeting British, French and German ministers in
Berlin. "There is real urgency and it's really now a matter of weeks, where we
determine whether or not we can return to mutual compliance with the
agreement."Little remains of the 2015 deal, which lifted sanctions against
Tehran in exchange for restrictions on its nuclear activities. In 2018,
then-President Donald Trump pulled Washington out of the deal, reimposing U.S.
sanctions, and Iran later breached many of the deal's nuclear restrictions and
kept pushing well beyond them. U.S. President Joe Biden, who succeeded Trump a
year ago, said on Wednesday that it was not the time to give up because some
progress was being made. The current round of talks resumed on Dec. 27 after the
adding of some new Iranian demands to a working text. Western states have
repeatedly said time was running out without setting a deadline for the end of
talks. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock again said the window of
opportunity was closing. "The negotiations have now entered a decisive phase. We
need to make very, very urgent progress here, otherwise we will not be able to
reach an agreement together that will bring sufficient added value to the
central issue of non-proliferation," she said. Highlighting the urgency, French
Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, said progress had been limited. "There is
partial, timid and slow progress, but negotiations cannot continue at such a
slow pace while, in parallel, Iran's nuclear program advances so rapidly," he
said in a statement. "We will quickly find ourselves in an untenable situation."
Iran refuses to directly meet U.S. officials, meaning that other parties -
Britain, China, France, Germany and Russia - must shuttle between the two sides.
A French diplomatic source briefing reporters after the Berlin talks said such
progress as had been made did not cover the most important topics "at the heart
of the negotiation." He would not set a deadline, but said the current trend was
unsustainable. "It seems necessary to us to change approach. I think that the
month of February will be absolutely decisive. We are not going to continue like
this in Vienna on the current trajectories in March, April, May etc." Writing on
Twitter, the lead U.S. negotiator in the talks, Rob Malley, said time was
running out. "There is only a little time to reach and implement an
understanding before developments in Iran’s nuclear program foreclose the
possibility."
West Warns Iran amid ‘Modest Progress’ at Vienna Talks
London - Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 21 January, 2022
Foreign ministers of the Western quartet partaking in talks on Iran’s nuclear
program sent another warning to Tehran. They stressed the need to expedite the
negotiation process, return to joint compliance with the terms of the deal, and
halt the expansion of Iran’s nuclear activities. This comes when Iran nuclear
deal talks in Vienna have reached a “decisive” point, although their progress
has been non-essential so far. The Iranian nuclear file was one of the main
topics discussed at the quartet’s meeting, held in Berlin, and included top
diplomats from the United States, Germany, Britain, and France. US Secretary of
State Antony Blinken and German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said Thursday
during the meeting in Berlin that urgent steps will need to be taken to revive
the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. “There is real urgency and it’s really now a matter
of weeks, where we determine whether or not we can return to mutual compliance
with the agreement,” Blinken said during a joint press conference with Baerbock.
The top US diplomat said there had been “modest progress” in recent talks in
Vienna. He also claimed that returning to “mutual compliance” with the deal is
still possible. Blinken’s comments echo those of US President Joe Biden, who
said Wednesday that it is not time to give up efforts to bring the 2015
agreement back to life. Baerbock also said time was of the essence. “The window
for finding a solution is closing,” she said. “The negotiations are in a
decisive phase. We need urgent, urgent progress. Otherwise, we will not be
successful in reaching a joint accord.” French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le
Drian, who was also in Berlin, said a change of approach was needed to salvage
the deal. He said progress in the negotiations so far had been “partial, timid
and slow” and said it was necessary to “pick up the pace.”The remarks come as
Iran moves forward with uranium enrichment, sparking concern in the West. The
UK, France, Germany, Russia, China and the EU are currently in the eighth round
of talks in Vienna over the deal, with negotiations having resumed nearly two
months ago.
Iran, Russia and China Begin Joint Naval Drill
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 21 January, 2022
Iran, Russia and China on Friday began a joint naval drill in the Indian Ocean
aimed at boosting marine security, state media reported. Iran's state TV said 11
of its vessels were joined by three Russian ships including a destroyer, and two
Chinese vessels. Iran's Revolutionary Guard will also participate with smaller
ships and helicopters. The report said the maneuvers would cover some 17,000
square kilometers, or 10,600 miles, in the Indian Ocean's north, and include
night fighting, rescue operations and firefighting drills, The Associated Press
reported. This is the third joint naval drill between the countries since 2019.
It coincided with a recent visit by Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi to Russia
that ended on Thursday. “Improving bilateral relations between Tehran and Moscow
will enhance security for the region and the international arena,” Raisi said
upon returning from Russia on Friday, the official IRNA news agency reported.
Tehran has sought to step up military cooperation with Beijing and Moscow amid
regional tensions with the United States. Visits to Iran by Russian and Chinese
naval representatives have also increased in recent years.
Iran has been holding regular military drills in recent months, as attempts to
revive its 2015 nuclear deal with world powers flounder. Russia is also at
loggerheads with the US and the West over its neighbor Ukraine, where it has
sent some 100,000 troops that Washington, Kiev and their allies fear will be
used to invade the country. Russia on Thursday announced sweeping naval
maneuvers in multiple areas involving the bulk of its naval potential — over 140
warships and more than 60 aircraft — to last through February. The exercises
will be in the Black Sea, the Mediterranean, the northeastern Atlantic and the
Pacific Ocean, in addition to the joint exercise with Iran in the Indian Ocean.
UN Security Council slams Houthi’s ‘heinous terrorist
attacks’ on Abu Dhabi
Joseph Haboush, Al Arabiya English/21 January ,2022
The UN Security Council blasted the Iran-backed Houthis on Friday for the
“heinous terrorist attacks in Abu Dhabi.” “The members of the Security Council
condemned in the strongest terms the heinous terrorist attacks in Abu Dhabi,
United Arab Emirates, on Monday, 17 January, as well as in other sites in Saudi
Arabia,” a statement from the Security Council said. The meeting, requested by
the UAE, was held behind closed doors. The Security Council expressed its
condolences to the families of the victims killed from India and Pakistan, and
wished a speedy and full recovery for those injured. The members also reaffirmed
that “terrorism in all its forms and manifestations constitutes one of the most
serious threats to international peace and security.”Speaking to reporters after
the meeting, UAE Ambassador to the UN Lana Nusseibeh said she had presented the
Security Council with details of the origins of the Houthi attack. She said it
showed “clearly that Sanaa, amongst other places of origin, were the place that
these cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, and drones were launched
indiscriminately at my country in order to target the maximum number of
civilians and civilian infrastructure.”
The UAE diplomat added: “The attack on the UAE is an attack that is a violation
against all international norms. It is a violation of international law.”
Nusseibeh was quick to point out that the UAE supported the UN special envoy for
Yemen and the need for a political process to end the war in Yemen. “We have
spent years supporting those efforts and will continue to do so.”
US commits to helping Saudi Arabia, Gulf partners defend
against threats from Yemen
Joseph Haboush, Al Arabiya English/21 January ,2022
The US reiterated its commitment to helping Saudi Arabia and its Gulf partners
defend themselves against threats from Yemen and other places in the region, the
State Department said after a call between Secretary of State Antony Blinken and
Prince Faisal bin Farhan. “Secretary Blinken reiterated the US commitment to
help Gulf partners improve their capabilities to defend against threats from
Yemen and elsewhere in the region and underscored the importance of mitigating
civilian harm,” Spokesman Ned Price said. Friday’s call came after this week’s
attacks on Saudi Arabia and the UAE, claimed by the Iran-backed Houthis in
Yemen. Civilian sites, including Abu Dhabi’s International Airport, were
targeted with missiles and drones. At least three civilians were killed, and a
handful of others injured. “The Secretary condemned the January 17 Houthi attack
on both Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates that struck civilian sites in
the UAE, including Abu Dhabi’s international airport, and killed and wounded
civilians,” Price said in the statement. Separately, the UN Security Council
condemned the “heinous terrorist attacks in Abu Dhabi” after a meeting was
called for by the UAE. The Security Council expressed its condolences to the
families of the victims killed from India and Pakistan and wished a speedy and
full recovery for those injured. The members also reaffirmed that “terrorism in
all its forms and manifestations constitutes one of the most serious threats to
international peace and security.”
UAE envoy hails Security Council censure of Houthis as
crucial step toward justice
Arab News/January 21/2022
NEW YORK: The UN Security Council’s unanimous condemnation of the deadly
terrorist attack on Abu Dhabi this week is “a really important step” in efforts
to hold the Houthi militia in Yemen accountable for its crimes and prevent
future atrocities, according to the UAE’s permanent representative to the UN.
Lana Nusseibeh added that her country has a “sovereign right to defend itself,
our people and our way of life, as any nation in same situation would do.”She
was speaking on Friday after a Security Council meeting, convened at the UAE’s
request, to discuss the attack on the country’s capital.
Following the closed-door discussions, held under the title Threats to
International Peace and Security, the 15 council members unanimously condemned
the “heinous, terrorist” attack on Abu Dhabi and called for the perpetrators to
be brought to justice.
“The members of the Security Council condemn in the strongest terms the heinous
terrorist attacks in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, on Monday, Jan. 17, as
well as in other sites in Saudi Arabia,” they said. They stressed the need to
hold the “perpetrators, organizers, financiers and sponsors of these
reprehensible acts of terrorism accountable” and urged all UN member states to
cooperate with the UAE in achieving this.
Three people were killed and six injured in a drone assault on a key oil
facility in the Emirati capital, and a separate fire was sparked at Abu Dhabi’s
international airport. The Houthis claimed responsibility for the attack, which
immediately drew condemnation worldwide. The council members offered their
condolences to the families of the victims, two of whom were Indian nationals
and one a Pakistani, and to the governments of their countries. They reiterated
that “terrorism in all its forms and manifestations constitutes one of the most
serious threats to international peace and security” and that any acts of
terrorism are “criminal and unjustifiable, regardless of their motivation,
wherever, whenever and by whomsoever committed.”The Security Council also
reaffirmed the need for all states to “combat by all means, in accordance with
the Charter of the United Nations and other obligations under international law,
including international human rights law, international refugee law and
international humanitarian law, threats to international peace and security
caused by terrorist acts.”Nusseibeh said that “the council has spoken with one
voice that this egregious aggression by the Houthis, as well as the
proliferation of missiles and other technology that enabled the terrorist
attack, is a clear threat to the entire international community.”Her country is
strongly encouraged that the council joined more 100 nations and international
organizations in strongly condemning the attack, she added. “The UAE cares
deeply about our citizens and about millions of citizens from around the world
who have made our country their home,” Nusseibeh said. “This meeting and this
statement are clear indication of the concern that the international community
takes at this attack. More than 200 nationalities call the UAE home and more
than 60,000 passengers transit through Abu Dhabi International Airport every
day.”
In the letter requesting the special session of the Security Council, addressed
to the Norwegian delegation, which holds the presidency of the council this
month, Nusseibeh described the latest escalation of violence as “a further step
in the Houthis’ efforts to spread terrorism and chaos in our region. It is
another attempt by the Houthis, using the capabilities they have unlawfully
acquired in defiance of UN sanctions, to threaten peace and security.” Many of
the nations that sit on the council, including permanent members France, Russia,
China, the US and the UK, had already issued statements condemning the Houthi
assault on Abu Dhabi, with the US and the UK calling it a “terrorist attack.”In
response to a request by the UAE, US President Joe Biden said on Thursday that
his administration is considering reinstating the designation of the Houthis as
a “Foreign Terrorist Organization.”The attack on Monday was the second
high-profile incident this month involving the Houthis and the UAE. The militia
seized an Emirati-flagged cargo ship, the Rwabee, in the Red Sea off Yemen’s
western coast on Jan. 3. The Security Council previously unanimously condemned
the seizure of the ship and the detention of its crew. In a statement drafted by
the UK, members demanded the immediate release of the vessel and those on board,
and urged the Houthis to guarantee the safety and well-being of the crew. They
also called on all sides to resolve the issue quickly and highlighted the
importance of preserving freedom of navigation in the Gulf of Aden and Red Sea,
in accordance with international law. The hijacking of the Rwabee was the latest
Houthi assault in the Red Sea, which is a crucial route for international trade
and energy shipments.
UAE has ‘legal’ right to self-defense against Houthi
terrorist acts: Gargash
Ayush Narayanan, Al Arabiya English/21 January ,2022
The UAE has a “legal and moral right” to defend itself against terrorist acts by
Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi militia, said Dr. Anwar Gargash, diplomatic adviser
to the UAE president, the official WAM news agency reported on Friday. “The UAE
has a legal and moral right to defend its lands, population and sovereignty, and
will exercise this right to defend itself and prevent terrorist acts pursued by
the Houthi group,” he was quoted as saying. The comment was made during a call
with Hans Grundberg, the Special Envoy of the Secretary-General of the United
Nations to Yemen, where the duo reviewed the nature of the Iran-backed Houthi
attack in Abu Dhabi that led to a fuel tanker explosion killing three. The UAE
official also noted the expansion of the Houthi militia over the past three
years and their lack of engagement in a “political solution to the crisis,” as
the piracy of the UAE-flagged ‘Rwabee’ ship adds another dimension to the issue.
The Iran-backed Houthis seized the ship on January 3 off the Red Sea port of
Hodeida, along with its 11-member crew, and rejected a United Nations request to
release the vessel. Gargash called for a “strong and firm position” against the
“terrorist acts by the Houthi militia” from the international community. He
stressed the fact that the group repeatedly violated international laws and
agreements, primarily, the Stockholm Agreement, which Gargash says is evident in
the port of Hodeida which is reportedly being used for “maritime piracy and war
financing.”The Iran-backed militia frequently target civilian areas and energy
facilities in Saudi Arabia with explosive-laden drones and ballistic missiles.
The Arab Coalition has been carrying out attacks against legitimate military
Houthi targets in Yemen in recent months, warning civilians to not approach or
gather around the targeted sites beforehand. However, the recent drone attack in
Abu Dhabi marks the first reported Iran-backed Houthi incident on UAE
soil.Despite the UAE’s firm stance against the recent acts of aggression,
Gargash added that the country will continue to “support international efforts
for a ceasefire and a political solution.”
U.S., Russia Agree to Come Back 'Next Week' on Ukraine
Crisis
Agence France Presse/Friday, 21 January, 2022
Washington and Moscow's top diplomats agreed at high-stakes talks on Friday to
keep working to ease tensions over Ukraine, with the United States promising a
written response to Russian security demands next week. As fears grow that
Russian could invade its pro-Western neighbor, U.S. Secretary of State Antony
Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov sat down for 90 minutes of
hastily-arranged talks in Geneva. Russia has massed tens of thousands of troops
on the Ukrainian border, denying it plans to invade but demanding security
guarantees, including a permanent ban on the country joining NATO. Blinken said
after the talks that Washington will share written ideas with Russia next week,
voicing hope for more diplomacy. "We didn't expect any major breakthroughs to
happen today, but I believe we are now on a clear path in terms of understanding
each other's concerns and each other's positions," Blinken told reporters. "We
anticipate that we will be able to share with Russia our concerns and ideas in
more detail in writing next week and we agreed to further discussions after
that," he added. "We ended up with an agreement that we will receive written
responses to all our proposals next week," Lavrov said in a separate press
conference. "Antony Blinken agreed that we need to have a reasonable dialogue,
and I hope emotions will decrease," Lavrov said. "I cannot say whether or not we
are on the right track. We will know when we get an answer," Lavrov said. He
added that another meeting could be held between the two, but that it was
"premature" to start talking about a summit between Presidents Joe Biden and
Vladimir Putin. Biden bluntly assessed on Wednesday that Putin is likely to
"move in" on Ukraine and warned of a "disaster for Russia". The United States
and its allies have warned of severe economic sanctions for an invasion.
Cold War redux? -
Russia, which already fuels a deadly insurgency in eastern Ukraine that has
killed more than 13,000 people since 2014, has demanded guarantees that NATO
never admit the former Soviet republic or expand otherwise in Moscow's old
sphere. The United States has declared the idea a "non-starter" and accused
Russia of undermining Europe's post-Cold War order by bullying another country
into submission. Russia on Friday reiterated demands for the "withdrawal of
foreign forces, hardware and arms" from countries that were not NATO members
before 1997, this time singling out Bulgaria and Romania, two former Warsaw Pact
countries that joined NATO in 2004. Romania's foreign ministry quickly hit back,
calling saying the demand "is unacceptable and cannot be part of a
negotiation."Blinken headed to Geneva after a solidarity trip to Kyiv and talks
with Britain, France and Germany in Berlin. Even while rejecting the core
Russian demands, the Biden administration has said it is willing to speak to
Moscow about its security concerns. One proposal by the United States is to
revive restrictions on missiles in Europe that had been set by the
Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, a Cold War deal trashed by former
president Donald Trump's administration as it accused Moscow of violations.
- U.S. says clock is ticking -
The Biden administration has also offered more transparency on military
exercises. Russia has not rejected the proposals but says that its core concern
is Ukraine and on Thursday announced massive naval drills in the Atlantic,
Pacific, Arctic and Mediterranean as a show of force.
The United States has warned that the clock is ticking, putting forward
intelligence alleging that an invasion could come shortly and be preceded by a
"false-flag" operation as Russia tries to trigger a pretext against Ukraine.
Lawmakers in Russia's parliament have presented a bill that would ask Putin to
recognize the independence of two pro-Moscow separatist territories in Ukraine,
Donetsk and Lugansk. Lower house speaker Vyacheslav Volodin said Friday that
such a move -- sure to enrage Ukraine and prompt Western condemnation -- would
be "a solution to provide for the security of our citizens and countrymen" in
the two regions. Ukraine's military intelligence service on Friday accused
Russia of sending fresh arms and equipment to the rebels since the start of this
month, including tanks, artillery and ammunition.
Is There a Link Between Syria and Ukraine?
London - Ibrahim Hamidi/Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 21 January, 2022
Geneva is hosting two meetings on Friday. The first between US Secretary of
State Antony Blinken and his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov, to discuss
Ukraine, and the second between UN Envoy to Syria Geir Pedersen and US Official
Ethan Goldrich to review the Syrian situation and propose a “step for step”
approach. Undisputedly, the two meetings do not have the same strategic
importance and consequences. But once again, a thread is surfacing between the
Syrian and Ukrainian issues. This link goes back to 2014 when Russian President
Vladimir Putin decided to take on the Ukrainian adventure and then annexed
Crimea in March 2014. At that time, Moscow asked Damascus to show firmness in
the peace process negotiations that were taking place in Geneva. Putin then
intervened militarily in Syria at the end of 2015 and obtained an agreement from
President Bashar al-Assad for a long-term establishment in the bases of Latakia
and Tartus. At the time, Assad was quoted as telling Russian officials that
Moscow “owed him” to consolidate its influence in the Middle East and that he
was not like former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, who fled to Russia in
February 2014.
Putin says he wants written guarantees from the United States that NATO would
not expand near its border in Ukraine. But Putin himself was intensifying
Russian presence near the NATO borders when he established the Hmeimim base in
western Syria and deployed advanced S-400 and S-300 missile batteries there,
tens of kilometers from the NATO advanced base in Incirlik, southern Turkey.
Since then, relations of “hostile cooperation” between Russia and Turkey have
escalated in the Syrian theater and other regional and bilateral matters.
Another link between Ukraine and Syria surfaced in Turkish-Russian relations.
Ankara refused to recognize the annexation of Crimea, developed its strategic
relations with Kiev, providing it with the Bayraktar Combat Drones, which played
a major role in changing the course of military battles against other
Moscow-backed forces, such as in Libya, northwestern Syria, and
Nagorno-Karabakh. As for Moscow, it continued to support the eastern Ukraine
region. It is currently deploying tens of thousands of soldiers on the border
and offering Europe and America its conditions for reversing the incursion.
Within this broad picture and strategic game, both Moscow and Washington eye
Syria. Moscow provided an umbrella for normalization between Damascus and
Crimea, by signing an agreement to link the port of Latakia and Crimea to be the
crossing to Russia. The port of Latakia (and Tartus) is now in the hands of
Moscow, which is trying to keep Tehran away from it and the warm waters of the
Mediterranean and to protect it from Israeli raids.
Washington and Moscow cooperated on humanitarian aid across the Syrian border,
and the prevention of military clashes east of the Euphrates. However, the
diplomatic clash between the two capitals can be both loud and silent. The
Russian side encourages Arab normalization with Damascus and refuses to see
Pedersen’s “step for step” proposal as an alternative to the Astana process,
which Moscow is running in cooperation with Ankara and Tehran. As for the US
side, it opens the horizon of the “step for step” approach in its broader view
and seeks to control the paths of Arab normalization with Syria.
What's new in the US position on Syria is the transition from “negative
neutrality” to “positive engagement.” Washington launched a campaign through
diplomatic channels towards several Arab countries to limit unilateral
normalization steps with Damascus and prevent the country’s return to the Arab
League before paying a price in the political process and “getting rid of
Iranian influence.” This has put the idea of holding the Arab summit in Algeria
at the end of March at stake. After the Afghan experience, Joe Biden’s
administration does not want another failure in Ukraine, Syria, or in the
negotiations on the Iranian nuclear program, amid growing pressure from Congress
ahead of the upcoming elections. According to an Arab diplomat who was briefed
on the protest letter, Washington said that the continuation of the freezing
decision conveyed a message that atrocities would not be tolerated, and that the
regime must implement concrete and real steps before Arab countries make the
move. Some of the measures that Damascus is required to take on the political
process under UN Security Council Resolution 2254, including “getting rid of
Iran’s influence,” which is a matter agreed upon by Arab countries and
Washington with the aim of “confronting Iran’s destabilizing behavior” for the
sake of stability in the region. Washington and its allies are aware of Jordan’s
need to open economic channels with Syria, and the necessity to provide Damascus
with other options to reduce Iran’s influence, which explains the support for
the “Arab Gas Pipeline” and “electricity network” projects benefiting both Syria
and Lebanon. However, at the same time, US officials asked the Jordanian side
whether it had obtained any concessions from Syria. They asked: “Have the
smuggling of illegal drugs and Captagon been stopped? Did you get security
guarantees? Are the limits set? Did you get assurances for the safe return of
the refugees?”Washington also stressed that normalization should not be free of
charge, calling on the Russian side to fulfill its obligations towards achieving
stability in southern Syria and preventing smuggling across Jordan’s borders.
The Americans have repeatedly told their European and Arab allies that they
“need to coordinate with us before making any move.” Washington “does not like
surprises”... because it wants, as does Moscow, to put the Syria on the
negotiating table and link it to other issues of varying priorities for the
major stakeholders.
IS Gunmen Mount Deadly Attacks in Syria, Iraq; Dozens
Killed
Associated Press/Friday, 21 January, 2022
Militants from the Islamic State group launched sophisticated attacks in Syria
and Iraq, including an attempt to break into a prison where suspected extremists
are being held by U.S.-backed fighters, officials said Friday. Dozens of people
were killed. The separate attacks are believed to be some of the largest since
IS lost the final sliver of territory it held nearly three years ago. In recent
months, IS sleeper cells have become more active in both countries, claiming
attacks that killed scores of Iraqis and Syrians. In Iraq, IS gunmen attacked an
army barracks in a mountainous area north of Baghdad early Friday, killing 11
soldiers as they slept, the Iraqi military and security officials said. The
officials said the attack occurred in the Al-Azim district, an open area north
of the city of Baqouba in Diyala province. The circumstances of the attack were
not immediately clear, but two officials who spoke to The Associated Press said
IS militants broke into the barracks at 3 a.m. local time and shot dead the
soldiers, before fleeing. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity as they
weren't authorized to issue official statements. An Iraqi military statement
said the dead included an officer with the rank of lieutenant and 10 soldiers.
The brazen attack more than 120 kilometers (75 miles) north of the capital
Baghdad was one of the deadliest targeting the Iraqi military in recent months.
In Syria, more than 100 IS fighters using heavy machine guns and vehicles rigged
with explosives attacked the Gweiran Prison in the northeastern city of Hassakeh
where some 3,000 suspected IS militants are being held, according to a spokesman
for the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, Farhad Shami. He said seven
U.S.-backed Kurdish fighters were killed and several others were wounded. At
least 23 IS attackers were also among the dead, he said.
"This is the biggest attack not only in Syria but also in Iraq and the region,"
Shami said in reference to attacks carried out by IS since they were defeated in
Syria in March 2019. "The prisoners include commanders and are among the most
dangerous." The complex attack was mounted on Thursday evening and aimed to free
fighters from the group incarcerated there. Kurdish-led forces who control the
Gweiran Prison said prisoners inside the facility rioted simultaneously and
tried to escape while a car bomb went off outside the prison and gunmen clashed
with security forces. The fighters were led by foreign militants, not Syrians,
many of whom spoke in Iraqi dialect, Shami said.
The SDF said 89 militants who escaped were arrested. Another group of inmates
staged a new escape attempt Friday, the SDF added.
The US-led coalition carried out an airstrike after reported casualties among
the Syrian-led Kurdish forces late Thursday. Shami said dozens of IS fighters
had gathered earlier in a nearby neighborhood and prepared for the attack.
The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported at least 20
Kurdish security forces and prison guards were killed in the clashes, alongside
six militants and five civilians. It described the attack as the most violent
one committed by IS since its territorial defeat in 2019. The Observatory said
the inmates are mostly in control of the prison, while Kurdish forces attempt to
wrestle it back.
IS was largely defeated in Iraq in 2017, and in Syria in 2019, although it
remains active through sleeper cells in many areas. Militants from the Sunni
Muslim extremist group still conduct operations, often targeting security
forces, power stations and other infrastructure.
In October, IS militants armed with machine guns raided a predominantly Shiite
village in Iraq's Diyala province, killing 11 civilians and wounding several
others. Officials at the time said the attack occurred after the militants had
kidnapped villagers and their demands for ransom were not met.
The officials said army reinforcements were sent to the village where Friday's
attack occurred, and security forces deployed in surrounding areas. More details
were not immediately available.
"We affirm that the blood of the heroic martyrs will not be in vain and that the
response by our heroic army units will be very harsh," the Iraqi military
statement said. IS attacks have been on the rise in recent months in both Iraq
and neighboring Syria, where in 2014 the group set up a self-styled Islamic
caliphate before being defeated by an international coalition. The so-called
caliphate covered significant swathes of Iraq and Syria. The ensuing war against
them lasted several years, killed thousands, and left large parts of the two
neighboring countries in ruins. It also left U.S.-allied Kurdish authorities in
control of eastern and northeastern Syria, with a small presence of several
hundred American forces still deployed there.
ISIS Gunmen in Iraq Kill 11 Soldiers in Brazen Barracks
Attack
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 21 January, 2022
Gunmen from the ISIS extremist group attacked an army barracks in a mountainous
area north of Baghdad on Thursday, killing 11 soldiers as they slept, Iraqi
security officials said. The officials said the attack occurred in the Al-Azim
district, an open area north of of Baqouba in Diyala province. The circumstances
of the attack were not immediately clear, but two officials who spoke to The
Associated Press said ISIS group militants broke into the barracks at 3 a.m.
local time and shot dead the soldiers. The officials spoke on condition of
anonymity as they weren't authorized to issue official statements. The brazen
attack more than 120 kilometers (75 miles) north of the capital Baghdad was one
of the deadliest targeting the Iraqi military in recent months. The ISIS group
was largely defeated in the country in 2017, although it remains active through
sleeper cells in many areas. Militants from the extremist group still conduct
operations, often targeting security forces, power stations and other
infrastructure. In October, ISIS militants armed with machine guns raided a
predominantly Shiite village in Diyala province, killing 11 civilians and
wounding several others. Officials at the time said the attack occurred after
the militants had kidnapped villagers and their demands for ransom were not met.
The officials said army reinforcements were sent to the village where Friday's
attack occurred, and security forces deployed in surrounding areas. More details
were not immediately available, and the Iraqi military did not immediately
comment.
Egypt Rejects Israel’s Demolition of Palestinian Home in
Sheikh Jarrah
Cairo - Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 21 January, 2022
Egypt’s Foreign Ministry issued a statement on Thursday rejecting Israeli
authorities’ demolition of a Palestinian home and a building in Sheikh Jarrah
neighborhood in the occupied East Jerusalem. “Israel’s continued attempts to
evict Palestinians from their homes in Sheikh Jarrah neighborhood constitute a
flagrant violation of international and humanitarian laws, which further
exacerbate the already troubled situation in the occupied Palestinian
territory,” the statement read. Foreign Ministry Spokesman Ahmed Hafez
reiterated Cairo’s firm stance, which rejects Israel’s settlement policy,
including the building of new settlements and the expansion of existing ones, as
well as the forced displacement of Palestinians and the confiscation of their
lands and properties. Israel’s unilateral policies undermine efforts to realize
a two-state solution and directly contribute to failure to achieve just and
comprehensive peace in the region, he warned.
Israel Releases Palestinians Held After Eviction
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 21 January, 2022
Five members of a Palestinian family arrested after Israeli police demolished
their house in east Jerusalem have been released, their lawyer told AFP on
Thursday. The arrest of several members of the Salhiya family came as they were
evicted from their house in the sensitive neighborhood of Sheikh Jarrah by
Israeli authorities before dawn on Wednesday. Walid Abu Tayeh, the family's
lawyer, confirmed "the release of the five people detained since Wednesday,
including Mahmud Salhiya and his sons". Police had accused several Salhiya
family members of "violating a court order" and public disturbance.
Abu Tayeh said the release of the five on Thursday was conditional on payment of
a 1,000 Israeli shekel ($320) fine, and that the group was forbidden from
entering Sheikh Jarrah for one month. The looming eviction of other Palestinian
families from Sheikh Jarrah in May last year partly fuelled an 11-day war
between Israel and armed Palestinian factions in Gaza. In those cases,
Palestinians risked having to surrender plots of land to Jewish settlers who had
mounted legal claims to the land. But Jerusalem authorities have stressed the
Salhiya family eviction is a different case and that the city intends to build a
special needs school on the land, benefitting Arab residents of east Jerusalem.
The city has said it purchased the land from previous Arab owners and that the
Salhiya's had lived there illegally for years, but failed to agree to a
compromise on an eviction order first issued in 2017. Israel captured east
Jerusalem in the 1967 Six-Day War and later annexed it, in a move not recognized
by the most of the international community.
Palestinian Minister: Biden Moving Too Slow on Pushing
Peace
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 21 January, 2022
Palestinian Foreign Minister Riad Malki said Wednesday US President Joe Biden
was moving too slowly to reverse all of the Trump administration’s adverse
policies against the Palestinians and not using Washington’s special
relationship to pressure Israel to abandon “its rejection of a two-state
solution and peace negotiations.”Malki told the UN Security Council there were
hopes that the end of Donald Trump’s administration and Israeli prime minister
Benjamin Netanyahu’s government “would be enough to pave the way for renewed
momentum for peace.”But while the Biden administration reversed several
”unlawful and ill-advised” Trump policies, he said it has been slow to act,
especially on the US commitment to reopen the US consulate in Jerusalem, which
would restore Washington’s main diplomatic mission for the Palestinians in the
contested city, The Associated Press reported.
After Biden took office a year ago, the Palestinians thought the United States
“could try to move the Israeli position toward us,” Malki told reporters later.
“But we have seen that the Israeli position has been able to move the American
position a little bit towards them -- and this is really what troubles us very
much.” The US “has yet to ensure the current Israeli government renounces its
colonial policies and abandons its rejection of the two-state solution and peace
negotiations,” Malki said. “This is an unacceptable stance that should neither
be tolerated nor excused and must be reversed.”
Biden won initial but cautious plaudits from Mideast analysts when he rejected
the Trump administration’s unabashedly pro-Israel stance and tentatively
embraced the Palestinians by restoring aid and diplomatic contacts. Yet the
Biden administration has also retained key elements of Trump’s policies,
including several that broke with long-standing US positions on Jerusalem and
the legitimacy of Israeli settlements that the Palestinians and the United
Nations say are illegal. Malki said he had “a very open, frank discussion”
earlier Wednesday with US Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield, including on
US-Palestinian relations, the peace process, Palestinian expectations from the
US and “what they are trying to do in the near future in order to see things
moving forward in the right direction.”He said the Palestinians are engaging
with the US administration about possible ways to eliminate restrictions imposed
by Congress on reopening the Palestinian diplomatic mission in Washington.
Tor Wennesland, the UN Mideast envoy, told the council that six Palestinian men
were killed by Israeli security forces, another died in unclear circumstances,
and 249 Palestinians were injured, including 46 children., in the West Bank in
he past month. He said 15 Israelis were injured in attacks by Palestinians.
Israel’s UN Ambassador Gilad Erdan accused Malki of making “regurgitated
accusations and baseless claims,” and of ignoring the more than 200 “terror
attacks” carried out by Palestinians against Israel in the last month. These
included 143 rock throwing attacks, Erdan said as he held up a large rock, as
well as 20 attacks using grenades and Molotov cocktails. Malki called on the
Security Council to take urgent action to resolve the decades-old
Israeli-Palestinian conflict and save the two-state solution, pointing to
Israel’s accelerated settlement construction, demolition of Palestinian homes,
confiscation of Palestinian land “and even annexing Palestinian land.”“Absent
this sense of urgency, prepare yourself then to attend the funeral of this
solution, with all the consequences of such a death for the lives of millions of
people, Palestinians and others,” Malki warned. “The Palestinian people will
survive, but the two-state solution may not,” he said. “What happens then? Will
you convert to advocates of the one-state solution of freedom and equal rights
for all between the river and the sea? These would be the only options available
then.” Malki urged support for an international peace conference and echoed
Russia’s call for a ministerial meeting of the Quartet of Mideast mediators --
the United States, United Nations, European Union and Russia -- “as soon as
possible to mobilize efforts to get out from the current impasse.” He said the
UN, EU and Russia have agreed to a ministerial meeting but “we’re still waiting
for the approval of the American side.” He said the three other Quartet members
should convince the US about the importance of a ministerial meeting to move the
Middle East peace process forward.
US Won’t Resume Assistance to Sudan Without Civilian Gov’t
Khartoum - Mohamed Amin Yassin/Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 21 January, 2022
The United States will not resume economic assistance to Sudan, paused after the
October 25 coup, unless there is an end to violence and a civilian-led
government is restored, a statement issued by the US Embassy in Khartoum on
Thursday said. The statement was issued during the visit of Assistant Secretary
of State for African Affairs Molly Phee and Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa
David Satterfield to Sudan. It said the US would consider measures to hold
accountable those responsible for a failure to move forward on a political
transition and create a “peaceful environment” for it to proceed. It did not say
what such measures could involve. The two senior US envoys called for
independent investigations into deaths and injuries among those protesting
against the military since the Oct. 25 coup. “They strongly condemned the use of
disproportionate force against protesters, especially the use of live ammunition
and sexual violence and the practice of arbitrary detention,” the statement
said. The two envoys met with military leaders in the Transitional Sovereign
Council, political officials, and civil society organizations. Sudanese
authorities say peaceful demonstrations are allowed and any violations against
protesters will be investigated. October's military takeover interrupted a
transition that began after the ouster of former leader Omar al-Bashir in a 2019
uprising and was meant to lead to democratic elections. Meanwhile, Sudan’s
Sovereign Council agreed with the US delegation on amending the constitutional
document governing Sudan’s transition to democracy to bring it into line with
new developments in the country, it said in a statement on Thursday. The
Sovereign Council, led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, also agreed on forming
a national independent technocratic government and starting a comprehensive
national dialogue to end the current political crisis.
US Considers Redesignating Houthis as Terror Group
Washington - Muath Alamri/Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 21 January,
2022
US President Joe Biden said he is considering the redesignation of Yemen’s
Houthi militia as a terrorist organization, following the latest attack on
civilian facilities in the UAE that left three dead and several wounded. At a
press conference Biden held late on Wednesday, he said his administration is
considering reclassifying the Yemeni Houthi movement as an international
terrorist organization, and that "the matter is under discussion."He
acknowledged that ending the conflict in Yemen "will be very difficult."The UAE
embassy in the United States welcomed in a tweet the statements made by Biden.
The UAE welcomes Biden’s comments that “Houthi return to terror list is under
consideration. Case is clear—launching ballistic and cruise missiles against
civilian targets, sustaining aggression, diverting aid from Yemeni people”, the
Embassy said on Twitter. Speaking at a UN Security Council session, Saudi
Arabia's deputy permanent representative to the UN Mohammed Al-Ateeq said that
“the absence of firm measures towards these militias is what gave them more
space to harm the Yemeni people, destabilize the region’s security and
stability, and significantly affect international peace and security.”
On Thursday, the Saudi-led Arab coalition supporting legitimacy in Yemen said it
is carrying out air strikes to destroy the capabilities of the Houthi militia in
Hodeidah. “The port of Hodeidah is the artery of Iranian arms smuggling to the
Houthis and a source of threat to the freedom of maritime navigation", the
coalition said.
Texas Islamic Scholar Abdulrazzak Junaid: Feminism Aims
To Enslave Women In Capitalist Society; Islam Has Given Women Their Rights At A
Level No Western Society Can Match
MEMRI/January 21/2022
Source: The Internet - "Mesquite Islamic Center’s official YouTube channel"
American Islamic scholar Abdulrazzak Junaid said in a Friday sermon delivered at
the Mesquite Islamic Center in a suburb of Dallas, Texas that the idea of
feminism aims only to "enslave" women in capitalist societies. Junaid explained
that this means that women must work for their bosses and make money instead of
caring for their children. Junaid added that it is Islam that gave women their
rights and that dignifies them "at a level no Western society can match." The
sermon was posted on the Mesquite Islamic Center’s official YouTube channel on
January 14, 2022.
Abdulrazzak Junaid: "That is what Islam is when it comes to our woman folk. We
honor them, we respect them, we dignify them, at a level that no Western society
can match. We gave them, Islam gave them their rights. This idea of feminism and
whatnot, it's just to enslave them in the capitalist society.
"Go to work and work for your boss and make some money. Instead of spending time
with the kids that you bore. To see motherhood as a bad thing, and that's our
fault too. We have to remind these woman folk that motherhood is such a
beautiful thing, by honoring our mothers, by honoring our woman folk.
"By honoring our mothers and our woman folk, we show that to these woman, that
motherhood is a beautiful thing. That you don't have to go and become a slave to
the capitalist system and start working just like we do."
https://www.memri.org/tv/texas-islamic-scholar-abdulrazzak-junaid-feminism-enslaves-women
D.C. Imam Abdul Alim Musa: We Apologize To Iran, Hizbullah,
And Want To Normalize Sacrifice And Striking Back; The Americans Have Been Taken
Over By The Zionists And We Want You To Help Us Fight Them; U.S. Government Is
Evil
MEMRI/January 21/2022
Source: The Internet - "As-Sabiqun DC YouTube channel "
On December 24, 2021, a video was uploaded to the As-Sabiqun DC YouTube channel
in which American Imam Abdul Alim Musa, the director of Masjid Al-Islam in
Washington, D.C., delivered a Friday sermon in a parking lot in which he
apologized to the people of Iran, Hizbullah, Palestine, Yemen, Libya, and Iraq
for not speaking out "on their behalf" in condemnation of Israel, which he
referred to as "the Zionist entity." He said that Muslims need to "normalize"
sacrifice, and that Muslims have developed a "disease" that makes them sleepy
and idle because they have been bitten by the Zionist and American "fly." Imam
Musa called on Muslims to stand up to "boss-man," who he said is the Americans,
and to the Zionists, who he said control the United States and the world.
Speaking to his audience and to people as they walked past, Imam Musa called on
Muslims to "help" go "in the path of Allah," because it is difficult to raise
funds and "prepare [the] Jihad materials" for a "tussle" with the "boss-man" and
the Zionists. Citing Quranic verses, he criticized Muslims who "cling heavily to
the earth" when they are called upon to "go forth in the cause of Allah." He
also cited a verse that says: "Allah loves those who fight in His path." For
more about Imam Abdul Alim Musa, see MEMRI TV clips Nos.9067, 5869, 5762,and
2326.
Imam Abdul Alim Musa: "We open with an apology to the people of Iran, to the
people of Yemen, to the people of Palestine, Afghanistan, and Hizbullah in
Lebanon, and Libya, Iraq, for not speaking out on their behalf with open
condemnation of the Zionist entity.
"So we have to tell you this story today so we can normalize sacrifice,
normalize striking back, and normalize standing up. Don't you know that we've
been here for so long and it got so quiet that we have developed the disease
that the tsetse fly, when they bite you, they give you the sleeping sickness?
"And I don't care, when you get bit by that fly — call it the Zionist fly, call
it the American fly... when you get bit by that fly, you don't do nothing.
"Now, what we want to do is help a little bit today, help remove that sleeping
sickness. Now you know... Here's what we're trying to do... We're trying to
stand up to boss-man, and we're not asking you to get uncomfortable, so we're
going to do it ourselves. Now, that means that you all have got to kind of help
a little bit. If we're willing to go our in the path of Allah, we want you all
to help us do that.
"Because I know you don't want us to raise the funds, prepare all our jihad
materials, and then go out and tussle with boss-man and the Zionists. Now, you
know, we've been tussling with boss-man ever since we've been here, but now
boss-man... That's the white... That's the Americans... [They] have been taken
over by the Zionists.
"Now, if you think that the Americans are Marxists, you ought to see the
Zionists... Them boys is so bad that they just don't know what to do.
"There's only a handful of Zionists in the world, but the Zionists [are] running
the world. That’s why the Muslims are having all of this trouble. Why? Because
the Muslims refuse to stand up for themselves.
"Why do you think the Zionists treat us the way they do? Why do you think the
Zionists treat us the way they do? And there are less Zionists in the United
States than there are Muslims now. They treat us this way because you stroll
right on by, you're not organized, you're not disciplined... Why do you think
they can slaughter people in Palestine, why do you think they can slaughter
people in Libya, why do you think they can slaughter people in Syria? Why do you
think they can slaughter Muslims anywhere in the world they want? It's because
we walk right on by, going about our business.
"We're treating Islam like Christians treat Christianity. [The Quran says]: 'Oh
you who believe, what is the matter with you? When you were asked to go fourth
in the cause of Allah, you cling heavily to the earth!'
"Boss-man don't like you standing out here talking this stuff to him and waking
people up! When I say boss-man that means the American system, but the American
system is no [longer] controlled by the United States of America. The Zionists,
the illegal Zionist state, is the one that is robbing, murdering, and killing us
all over the world, and especially in Palestine, and they can do it right here
in America. Why? Because the Zionists control America. The Zionists tell the
world what to do, and guess what? The world must be listening.
"Hear what I'm trying to tell you, brothers and sisters. We've got to stand up.
I'm sorry, we're not going... We read the Quran, and we believe its true, right?
Stand up for justice! Raise your voice for the truth! We read that in the Quran
and we believe it! So we're not gonna sit around here, comfortable, and play
like: 'I don't know what the Quran says, I don’t know what it means...' Yes, you
do! Even with corrupted English translations, we know what it's trying to say.
"For those of you who are bathed - born and raised - in the Arabic language,
[you] know what it says! You know what is says! [the Quran says]: 'Allah loves
those who fight in His path in ranks like well-built walls.' That's what it
says, you know the verses... Allah loves those who fight in his cause as though
they were a solid cemented structure. You know it's true! So cooperate! We're
going to stand out here and take all the flak. Solid cemented structure! We're
going to fight for you. But we want you to help us fight against the Zionists.
We want you to help us! Demand Justice and balance for the evil United States
Government."
https://www.memri.org/tv/dc-imam-alim-musa-muslims-help-prepare-jihad-materials-fight-zionists-america
Canada/Minister Joly meets with Josep Borrell, High
Representative of the European Union
January 20, 2022 - Brussels, Belgium - Global Affairs Canada
The Honourable Mélanie Joly, Minister of Foreign Affairs, today met with Josep
Borrell, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and
Security Policy/Vice-President of the European Commission.
In their meeting, Minister Joly and High Representative Borrell exchanged
insights on their recent visits to Ukraine. Minister Joly highlighted her visit
with Canadian troops deployed on Operation UNIFIER and their work to support the
Security Forces of Ukraine.They spoke about Russia’s military buildup, and they
discussed international co-operation and the role of organizations such as NATO
and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe in preventing
further destabilizing activities in the region. Minister Joly and High
Representative Borrell condemned Russia’s aggressive actions and reaffirmed
their strong commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty, territorial integrity and
independence. Minister Joly and High Representative Borrell agreed that
multilateralism and strong transatlantic links are key to addressing challenges
in Eastern Europe and elsewhere.
Minister Joly and High Representative Borrell also had the opportunity to
discuss Canada and the EU’s security and defence co-operation, their climate
change leadership and their political and humanitarian co-operation in
addressing the needs of vulnerable populations in Ethiopia, Afghanistan, Haiti
and Venezuela.
Canada/Government of Canada announces loan of up to $120
million to support Ukraine’s economic resilience and development
January 21, 2022 – Ottawa, Ontario – Global Affairs Canada
Canada stands resolute in its support of Ukraine’s sovereignty, territorial
integrity and independence.
Today, the Honourable Harjit S. Sajjan, Minister of International Development
and Minister responsible for the Pacific Economic Development Agency of Canada,
and the Honourable Mélanie Joly, Minister of Foreign Affairs, announced that
Canada has offered to provide a loan of up to $120 million to the Government of
Ukraine to support the country’s economic resilience and governance reforms.
In addition, Canada has also offered to provide a technical assistance grant of
up to $6 million to support the implementation of the loan. Canadian and
Ukrainian officials are already meeting to discuss the potential terms of the
loan and a timeline for its implementation.
Today’s commitment shows that Canada will continue to support Ukraine and its
people. This proposed support will help reinforce Ukraine’s economy amid
Russia’s aggressive efforts to destabilize Ukraine’s economic system. These
aggressive efforts continue to jeopardize peace and security in Europe.
Alongside its allies, Canada calls on Russia to de-escalate and engage in
meaningful dialogue.
Quotes
“Ukrainians can always count on Canada to be there for them when needed. By
working together, we can strengthen the economy and help advance governance
reforms. I authorized this proposed loan to support Ukraine’s ability to respond
to its population’s needs amid Russia’s aggressive actions. This is just one
step in helping build a secure future for Ukrainians, and I will continue to
look at ways to support Ukraine.”
- Harjit S. Sajjan, Minister of International Development and Minister
responsible for the Pacific Economic Development Agency of Canada
“Over the past days, I have witnessed the strength of the people of Ukraine in
the face of challenges posed by Russia’s destabilizing and aggressive actions.
The situation in Ukraine is complex, and we are prepared to provide support for
the country’s economic resiliency. Canada will continue to work closely with our
partners to support a strong and independent Ukraine.”
- Mélanie Joly, Minister of Foreign Affairs
Quick facts
In 2014 and 2015, Canada provided a loan of $400 million ($200 million per year)
to the then-new Government of Ukraine to support its economic recovery and
development objectives. This loan was fully repaid with interest, on schedule,
in 2020.
The loan announced today would be provided under the Sovereign Loans Program,
which was announced in Budget 2018.
Providing sovereign loans to eligible countries improves their ability to make
important investments in poverty reduction and peace and security.
Since Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014, Canada has imposed
sanctions on more than 440 individuals and entities, many in coordination with
allies.
Associated links
The Latest The Latest LCCC English
analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published
on January 21-22/2022
Iran's regime is the source of the Israel-Iran conflict -
opinion
Mark Regev/Jerusalem Post/January 21/2022
“It’s the regime, stupid,” and Israel cannot afford to let this
regime get its finger anywhere close to a nuclear trigger.
In understanding the source of the Israel-Iran abyss it is perhaps useful to
paraphrase James Carville’s famous adage from the 1992 US presidential election:
“it’s the economy, stupid,” because it really is all about the regime.
I had the opportunity to visit the pre-revolution Imperial State of Iran. In the
1970s Tehran provided the best route to Israel from Asia. I flew from Melbourne
to Hong Kong, Hong Kong to Tehran, stayed overnight in the Iranian capital, and
after some sightseeing departed the next day for Tel Aviv.
Israel’s diplomatic mission in Iran was then headed by the legendary Uri Lubrani
who oversaw a positive mutually beneficial relationship – my El Al LY112
Tehran-Tel Aviv flight just one public manifestation of that.
But in 1979, regime change destroyed those ties. Ayatollah Khomeini overthrew
the shah’s Imperial State, establishing the Islamic Republic with its
unrelenting goal of eliminating the “Zionist entity.” Jerusalem’s elevated
concerns over Iran’s nuclear ambitions stem directly from that intense
ideological hostility.
The regime declares that its nuclear program is purely for peaceful purposes, a
contention repudiated by the documentary evidence from the Iranian nuclear
archive seized by Israeli intelligence in 2018, and by the absurdity of the
presumption that Iran’s clerical leadership was ahead of Greta Thunberg in
appreciating the dangers of climate change. Why else would a regime with vast
fossil fuel reserves choose to invest countless billions, and provoke
international anxiety, to develop nuclear energy?
Moreover, most countries that utilize nuclear power do so without their own
enrichment, there being no civilian requirement for such a capability.
Enrichment is only a prerequisite if the goal is military, and Iran’s current
levels of enrichment have no other logical explanation. Even the usually
conciliatory E3 (Germany, Britain and France) recently stated that Iran’s 60%
enrichment is “unprecedented for a state without nuclear weapons.” Yet Iran’s
“right to enrich” was conceded in 2013 by the Obama administration at the
opening of the US-Iran backchannel (concealed from Israel).
The common criticism of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the 2015 nuclear
agreement, is that it ignored a set of vital issues: Iran’s missile program,
support for terrorism and regional aggression. While factual, the critique,
including that on the sunset clauses, can miss the core issue: the JCPOA never
did what it claimed to do, it didn’t block Iran’s path to a nuclear weapon.
By allowing ongoing enrichment and continued centrifuge development, the
agreement left the regime with an infrastructure in place to move toward a bomb
at a time of its choosing. This is demonstrated today by Iran’s alarming
proximity to military-grade fissile material, for while Donald Trump’s decision
to pull out of the deal furnished the alibi, Barack Obama’s JCPOA enabled the
capability.
Jerusalem would not be sad to see Iran’s theocracy collapse but does not
advocate regime change, maybe having learned the lesson of overreach from the
1982 Lebanon War. Rather, Israel would suffice with a substantive shift in
Iranian behavior. Such a policy transformation within a revolutionary regime is
not impossible, the young Soviet Union offering historic precedent.
In the 1920s, Leon Trotsky was purged from the Communist leadership and with him
the ideology of “permanent revolution.” Stalin advocated the theory of
“socialism in one country,” providing the conceptual justification for Soviet
state realpolitik with the outside world.
But even assuming that the lessening of Iran’s revolutionary fervor is
inevitable, the question of the timeline remains: what will happen first,
moderation of the regime’s behavior, or nuclear proliferation. Proponents of the
JCPOA declared that it would help encourage the former by temporarily
constraining the nuclear program, buying valuable time for enhanced
international engagement to progressively erode the Islamic Republic’s
radicalism.
In practice, the opposite occurred. Not only did the deal unsuccessfully address
the nuclear question, but in the interim, the cash received from the lifting of
sanctions fueled expanded belligerency.
Far from incentivizing moderation, the JCPOA empowered radicalism, the regime
not forced to choose between better relations with the world and its
revolutionary agenda. The Islamic Republic could have its cake and eat it too.
The Biden team acknowledges the JCPOA’s faults. Expressing a desire for a
“longer and stronger” deal, the game plan was to return to the 2015 agreement
and then negotiate a better one. Yet if sanctions are lifted in accordance with
the original deal, it is questionable whether Washington will have the necessary
leverage to press Iran to accept the enhanced demands of the proposed superior
agreement.
Unfortunately, a bad outcome from the current Vienna talks appears all but
certain, avoiding such a scenario seemingly based on the hope that extreme
Iranian intransigence will prevent an agreement. But the regime deserves more
credit than that, a “compromise” will be found allowing the West a face-saver
but leaving the Islamic Republic with the infrastructure that makes the future
construction of nuclear weapons possible.
Naftali Bennett has said Israel will only accept an agreement that forces Iran
to effectively “give up its nuclear-weapon program,” stating that Jerusalem
isn’t part of the Vienna talks and won’t be bound by them.
He has added that Israel will always retain its freedom of action, alluding to
continued clandestine action to degrade Iran’s nuclear program as well as the
possibility of a direct attack on its nuclear facilities.
There are those who think this is just Israeli bluff, that a military strike is
of questionable efficacy because the Iranian program is both more dispersed and
better protected than were the cases of Iraq (1981) and Syria (2007) where
Israeli attacks destroyed those countries’ reactors.
Here the Iraqi precedent is instructive. At the time, Military Intelligence
advised prime minister Menachem Begin against the Osirak strike, pointing to the
many dangers, the Reagan administration’s opposition and that even following a
successful attack it would only be a matter of time before the Iraqis
reconstituted their program. But for Begin the risks of inaction outweighed the
risks of the operation, and, in the end, Saddam Hussein never did get his atom
bomb.
Like in 1981, Israel’s prime minister must always carefully balance the dangers
of inaction with those of action. If the alternative is the Islamic Republic’s
continued march toward a deployable nuclear weapon, Israel must be prepared to
act.
Remember Carville. “It’s the regime, stupid,” and Israel cannot afford to let
this regime get its finger anywhere close to a nuclear trigger.
The writer, formerly an adviser to the prime minister, is a senior visiting
fellow at the INSS. Follow him at @MarkRegev on Twitter.
Biden saves Iran from itself
Richard Goldberg/Washington Examinar/January 21, 2022
President Joe Biden came into office pledging to rejoin the 2015 Iran nuclear
deal quickly and then negotiate a follow-on agreement to address the deal’s many
flaws. A year later, he’s laying the groundwork for an even worse deal that
would pour billions of dollars into Iran’s terror infrastructure and leave the
regime on the threshold of attaining nuclear weapons. Try as his administration
might to pass the blame, one man alone is responsible for this catastrophic
policy failure: Joe Biden.
It’s startling to review just how much leverage the president has squandered
practically overnight.
At the end of 2020, Tehran had just $4 billion in accessible foreign exchange
reserves, with a balance-of-payments crisis looming. Iranians blamed the mullahs
for the nation's economic woes, protesting in waves throughout the country. The
head of the United Nations’s nuclear watchdog agency was investigating Iran for
concealing undeclared nuclear sites, materials, and activities — with a referral
to the U.N. Security Council for noncompliance with the Nuclear
Non-Proliferation Treaty possibly just months away. The Islamic Republic was
also still reeling from the loss of its terror mastermind, Qassem Soleimani, and
the father of its nuclear weapons program, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh.
From Biden’s first day in office, Iran began testing the new president. Days
before Biden’s inauguration, Iran started producing 20% enriched uranium, a
major escalation from the low-enriched uranium it produced in response to the
Trump administration’s maximum pressure campaign. In the weeks that followed,
Tehran-directed terror groups in Iraq attacked U.S. forces and interests,
leaving a U.S. contractor dead. Soon, reports emerged of Iranian oil exports to
China skyrocketing. Iranian leaders needed to gauge Biden’s willingness to
enforce sanctions.
With Iran refusing to cooperate with the U.N.’s investigation into its
clandestine nuclear work and the regime’s overt enrichment expanding, Biden had
a perfect opening to push back and set down some lines to contain Iranian
mischief. Instead, the president pressed U.S. allies to pull back any censure
resolution at the March meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency board.
The message to Tehran: America doesn’t care if you’re hiding nuclear sites and
materials, nor does it care about your compliance with global nonproliferation
agreements.
Iran’s response was predictable. The regime cut back U.N. access to its declared
nuclear sites, produced uranium metal, a key component of nuclear weapons, and
increased its enrichment purity level to 60% — dangerously close to
weapons-grade. Considering Tehran’s failure to cooperate with the IAEA’s
investigation, the obvious course of action presented itself: Refer the matter
to the Security Council and restore U.N. sanctions on Iran. But in June,
September, and November, Biden opted against any action that could provoke Iran
at the IAEA’s quarterly board meetings.
Biden made other poor choices as well. He chose not to respond militarily to the
March death of a U.S. contractor in Iraq. He chose not to respond militarily for
months thereafter despite continuous drone and rocket attacks targeting U.S.
forces in Iraq and Syria. And the two times he authorized a U.S. military
response, he directed fire at non-Iranian personnel or installations rather than
targeting the Revolutionary Guard commanders orchestrating the attacks.
Biden also gave a green light to Iranian adventurism in the region, a large
source of chaos, instability, and deadly violence. In Yemen, Biden ended U.S.
military support for a Saudi-led campaign against the Iran-backed Houthis and
rescinded the group’s designation as a foreign terrorist organization. On
Tehran’s orders, the Houthis responded by increasing missile and drone attacks
against Saudi and Emirati citizens. In other words, Iran responded to Biden’s
concession with more violence against U.S. allies. How did Biden respond to this
pattern? By rewarding it. The administration removed American missile defense
from the Saudi kingdom, which invited more Houthi attacks. In mid-January, a
combined drone, ballistic missile, and cruise missile attack on Abu Dhabi left
at least three people dead.
If the supreme leader had any doubt left about whether he could establish Iran
as a nuclear weapons threshold state without fearing a U.S. military response,
Biden’s disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan, looking the other way as the
Taliban marched on Kabul, sealed his calculus.
All the while, Biden let Iran’s economy stabilize. He suspended sanctions, which
gave the regime access to billions of dollars more in frozen funds. And he
refused to crack down as China increased its imports of Iranian oil. As Tehran’s
regional violence increased and its nuclear transgressions continued unabated,
Washington essentially helped the mullahs avoid a financial crisis.
Never has a U.S. president given up so much leverage so quickly for absolutely
zero gain. To borrow a football analogy, Biden started his presidency with Iran
backed up against its own goal line, and he deliberately allowed the regime to
march all the way to America’s red zone, the threshold of nuclear weapons.
The president made a bet one year ago that abandoning maximum pressure in favor
of maximum deference would somehow induce the world’s leading state sponsor of
terrorism that pledges “Death to America” to make concessions. He lost that bet.
And every time he doubles down on that bet instead of admitting his mistake, he
loses again.
Biden came into office and implemented a new Iran policy. He owns its failure.
Richard Goldberg is a senior adviser at the Foundation for Defense of
Democracies. He served on Capitol Hill, on the U.S. National Security Council,
as the chief of staff for Illinois’s governor, and as a Navy Reserve
intelligence officer. Follow him on Twitter @rich_goldberg.
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/politics/biden-saves-iran-from-itself
Congress Delivers Bipartisan Warning to Biden on Syria
Policy
David Adesnik/Policy Brief/January 21, 2022
The chairmen and ranking members of the House and Senate committees on foreign
relations sent a letter last week to President Joe Biden warning him that
“[t]acit approval of formal diplomatic engagement with the Syrian regime sets a
dangerous precedent for authoritarians who seek to commit similar crimes against
humanity.” The White House signaled last summer that it would not stand in the
way of Syria’s diplomatic rehabilitation in the Arab world, yet congressional
leaders rarely raised any public concern about Biden’s policy before this
letter.
In late 2019, bipartisan majorities in both houses of Congress passed the Caesar
Syria Civilian Protection Act, a sanctions law designed to deepen the isolation
of the Bashar al-Assad regime, with an emphasis on deterring support for Assad
from entities outside Syria. During its final year in office, the Trump
administration enforced the Caesar Act vigorously, eliciting broad support on
Capitol Hill.
Early in its tenure, the Biden administration pledged to “put human rights at
the center of U.S. foreign policy.” On multiple occasions, the administration
warned Arab governments that the Caesar Act was the law of the land, so
enforcement would be firm. Yet in August 2021, the administration approved of
Syrian participation in a regional energy deal likely to generate substantial
revenue, in cash or in kind, for the Assad regime. This signal from Washington
led Syria’s neighbors to initiate high-level engagements with Damascus in
September.
In response to media coverage of its reversal, the administration insisted that
its policy toward Syria had not changed, since Washington itself would neither
lift sanctions nor pursue normalization with Assad. Yet Secretary of State
Antony Blinken and other senior officials have carefully avoided saying that
they would take any action to stop other countries from rehabilitating the Assad
regime.
Last October, the leaders of the bipartisan Friends of Syria Caucus in the House
of Representatives publicly condemned normalization with Assad, while some
senior Republicans expressed disappointment with the policies of U.S. partners
in the Arab League. These instances aside, congressional opposition was minimal
until last week’s letter from the chairmen and ranking members.
In their letter to Biden, Senators Robert Menendez (D-NJ) and James Risch (R-ID)
and Representatives Gregory Meeks (D-NY) and Michael McCaul (R-TX) advise the
president, “Your administration should consider consequences for any nation that
seeks to rehabilitate the Assad regime.” This is good advice. The main advocates
of engagement have been U.S. partners, principally Jordan, Egypt, and the United
Arab Emirates. Washington exercises substantial influence in their capitals, so
Amman, Cairo, and Abu Dhabi would likely heed an American warning. While the
United Arab Emirates has pushed for normalization for several years, neither
Cairo nor Amman made any significant moves until the Biden administration gave
them a subtle green light.
Despite challenging the White House, the bipartisan letter did not mention the
regional energy deal in which Syria is participating thanks to the Biden
administration’s approval. Negotiations surrounding the energy deal are the
primary vehicle for Assad’s reintegration into Arab diplomacy, so normalization
will likely continue for as long as Washington approves of Syrian participation.
If the White House does not heed this warning from the Hill, the letter’s
authors should assert that they interpret the deal as a clear violation of the
Caesar Act. This may be sufficient to deter participation by Egypt, whose
petroleum minister expressed concerns about his government’s exposure to
sanctions. Without Cairo’s participation, the deal’s natural gas component would
no longer be viable.
Finally, Congress should consider revising the Caesar Act to expand sanctions
against the Assad regime, its financiers, and its other supporters while
limiting the discretion the executive branch now enjoys in the law’s
implementation. If the White House refuses to put human rights at the center of
U.S. policy toward Syria, then Congress should.
*David Adesnik is research director and a senior fellow at the Foundation for
Defense of Democracies (FDD), where he contributes to FDD’s Center on Economic
and Financial Power (CEFP). For more analysis from David and CEFP, please
subscribe HERE. Follow David on Twitter @adesnik. Follow FDD on Twitter @FDD and
@FDD_CEFP. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute
focusing on national security and foreign policy.
Iranian attacks in Iraq reflect weakness, disarray
Jonathan Spyer/Jerusalem Post/January 21/2022
The uptick in rocket fire appears more as a kind of ritual response to the
killings of Soleimani and Muhandis than as the opening salvo of an effort to
expel western forces.
A series of bomb and grenade attacks have taken place over the last week in the
Iraqi capital, Baghdad. They were directed at financial facilities and political
offices associated with a number of factions currently taking part in
negotiations toward the formation of a new Iraqi government.
These incidents follow a number of rocket and drone attacks on US and coalition
facilities in Iraq and Syria. The latter came after the marking of the second
anniversary of the killing of IRGC/Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani and
Popular Mobilization Units leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis by the US on January 3,
2020.
There is no great mystery regarding who is responsible for these incidents.
Given the nature of the targets, they were clearly carried out by pro-Iran
elements. But the timing and nature of the incidents, and their intensity, are
significant. They are an indication not of Iranian strength, but rather of the
relative disarray and confusion observable in the pro-Iran camp in Iraq at the
present moment.
First, the Baghdad attacks. These took place following the opening of the new
session of the Iraqi parliament, on January 9. The sites targeted were the
headquarters of three political parties – the Kurdish Democratic Party (KDP),
the Taqadum Coalition and the Azm Alliance. The latter two are lists
representing the Iraqi Sunni Arab population. Two financial institutions
associated with the Kurdish Democratic Party – the Kurdistan Bank and the
Kurdish-owned Cihan Bank – were also targeted.
There were no deaths in any of these incidents. A number of people were
wounded.KDP, Azm and Taqadum are non-Shia political formations currently engaged
in negotiating with the Shia Sairun list of Muqtada al-Sadr for the formation of
a governing coalition that would exclude the pro-Iranian elements. No group
claimed responsibility for the incidents in Baghdad. But it may be stated with
near certainty that these grenade attacks were the pro-Iran militias expressing
their displeasure, in their own inimitable style.
The attacks are the latest indication of the relative disarray in which the Shia
militias and the Iranian interest in Iraq find themselves, since the elections
of October 10.
In those polls, the militia-supported Fatah list suffered a precipitous decline
in support, and subsequent representation in the 329-member Iraqi parliament.
Thanks to disorganization, disunity and a misreading of a new electoral law,
leading to faulty election tactics, the Fatah list went down from 48 seats in
the parliament to 17. Governments in Iraq in recent years have consisted of
coalitions, bringing together disparate and even opposed elements. The pro-Iran
element needs to be in government, in order to maintain the legal status of its
militias, continue the flow of funds to the Popular Mobilization Units (the
official body that gives the militias their legal status) and ensure that no
serious attempt at dismantling or confronting the Iranian parallel state by a
government in Iraq takes place.The decline in electoral representation was the
result not of a loss of popular support for the pro-Iran camp, but of simple
mismanagement. In terms of votes, the Fatah list received more than that of Sadr
– 670,000 to 650,000. Disunity, mistaken tactics and incompetence produced the
drastic difference in the allocation of seats.
Months of unrest in Baghdad followed as the militias, specifically Kataib
Hezbollah and Asaib Ahl Al-Haq, organized protests by members of their movements
and militiamen, demanding a recount of the results. Tensions reached their
height with a drone attack on the residence of Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi
in November. But the unrest and attempts at intimidation failed to achieve their
objective. No recount was forthcoming.
At the opening of parliament on January 9, pro-Iranian factions, now organized
in the “Coordination Framework,” sought to disrupt proceedings. Specifically,
they tried (and failed) to prevent the election of Mohammed Halbousi, leader of
the Sunni Taqadum list, as speaker of the parliament.
The appointment of Halbousi to this position has been interpreted by many Iraqi
analysts as indicating that Sadr intends to seek to form a government with his
main, non-Shia allies, rather than seeking to create a unity coalition involving
both main Shia blocs.
The grenade attacks were the response of the pro-Iran element to this
development. They targeted those non-Shia elements, which Sadr will need as the
basic building blocks for any coalition excluding the Shia militia element.
The attacks on US and coalition positions, meanwhile, included the launching of
four rockets on the US Embassy in Baghdad on January 12, two drone attacks on
the Ain al-Asad base in Iraq’s Anbar Province, and rocket fire on the
Coalition/Syrian Democratic Forces’ “Green Village” base in eastern Syria. There
were no fatalities. The US-led coalition responded to the rocketing of the base
in Syria with artillery fire on the source of the rockets. This was near the
town of Mayadin, in an area controlled by the Iran-supported militias just west
of the Euphrates river and close to the Iraqi border. The Qassim al-Jabbarin
Brigade, a front for Ktaib Hezbollah, claimed responsibility for the firing on
Ain al-Asad.
There are no indications that operations on this level will shift the small but
significant US deployments in Iraq and Syria. The uptick in rocket fire appears
more as a kind of ritual response to the killings of Soleimani and Muhandis than
as the opening salvo of a determined effort to expel western forces.
Regarding the actions against political opponents, the next hurdles for the
parliament will be choosing a new president, and then a new prime minister, over
the next two months. The Iranians and their militias are pursuing a familiar
“strategy of tension,” designed to produce a feeling of intimidation among
opponents and deter them from clear moves in the direction of exclusion of the
Iranian interest from a role in government.
It is now Sadr’s move. Muqtada al-Sadr himself, of course, is hardly a
consistent opponent of the Iranians. It may well be that he will continue to
prefer to weave a complex and inconsistent path between the Iranians and their
enemies, rather than enter a path toward confrontation between his own militia
and those of Tehran. But the very fact that the key decision now is in the hands
of Sadr is testimony to the rudderlessness of Iranian strategy in Iraq at
present.
It is difficult to imagine the present confusion and disarray taking place under
the stewardship of Soleimani and Muhandis. Esmail Ghaani and Abd al Aziz al-Mohammadawi,
their respective replacements, are evidently not of the same caliber. From this
point of view, the current impasse of the Iranian position in Iraq (and
elsewhere) is perhaps the most authentic testimony to the skills of these two
slain commanders. It is an interesting confirmation of the importance of
individual leaders, for all the significance of structures and systems.
Finally, of course, from the point of view of Iran’s enemies, it is testimony to
the correctness of the decision to remove them. It is perhaps unfortunate that
the current malaise of Iran’s proxy strategy in Iraq is not being exploited by a
determined, clear strategy on the part of the US and its allies. Rather, these
are at present mainly the passive beneficiaries of Iran’s difficulties.
The Russia-China Axis of Authoritarianism: Part I/Testing
Western Resolve in Ukraine and Taiwan
Soeren Kern/Gatestone Institute/January 21/2022
"Putin's apparent indifference towards Western warnings is understandable. He
has been hearing the same empty promises of decisive action, typically
accompanied by expressions of grave concern, ever since the Russian invasion of
Georgia in 2008.... Putin's recent list of security demands makes clear that he
seeks to reassert Russian domination throughout the post-Soviet space. This will
enhance Russia's claims to superpower status while exposing the inability of the
Western powers to keep their promises. " — Tinatin Khidasheli, former defense
minister of Georgia.
"For Beijing, success would translate into a commanding strategic position in
Asia, undermining the security of Japan and South Korea, and allowing China to
project power into the Western Pacific.... For the American alliance, a Chinese
takeover of Taiwan would be a devastating blow. At a stroke, the United States
would lose its status as the pre-eminent power in Asia, according to most U.S.
and regional military experts. If America were unwilling or unable to defend
Taiwan, its network of allies in the Asia-Pacific — including Tokyo, Seoul and
Canberra — would overnight be far more vulnerable to military and economic
coercion from China." — David Lague and Maryanne Murray, "The Battle for
Taiwan," Reuters.
"Vladimir Putin has invaded two democratic neighbors in just over a decade.
Letting him do it a third time would set the global system back decades.
Appeasement does not work any better now than it worked for Neville Chamberlain
in the late 1930s. China will be watching U.S. support to Ukraine, and it will
inform their calculus regarding Taiwan." — Retired U.S. Navy Admiral James
Stavridis, the former supreme allied commander at NATO, in an interview with the
New York Times.
"I strongly urge President Biden not to make concessions at the expense of our
strategic partner Ukraine in response to the Putin regime's provocative military
buildup. This would not only fail to de-escalate tensions, it would also
embolden Vladimir Putin and his fellow autocrats by demonstrating the United
States will surrender in the face of saber-rattling. Particularly in the
aftermath of the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan and the Nord Stream 2
capitulation, U.S. credibility from Kyiv to Taipei cannot withstand another blow
of this nature." — U.S. Representative Mike McCaul of Texas, the ranking
Republican on the House Foreign Affairs Committee.
"Ukraine and Taiwan both show how easily U.S. weakness — or even the mere
perception of weakness — could unravel the strained networks and alliances that
support the American world order and usher in a new era of global conflict and
instability.... The Putins and Xis of the world are probing for those
weaknesses, watching the results, and calculating their next move." — Michael
Schuman, a China scholar at the Atlantic Council.
Many observers agree that China is closely watching the U.S. response to
Russia's activities in Ukraine, and that the challenges posed by Russia and
China are a test of American credibility. A failure to deter Russia and China
would deal a potentially crushing blow to the post-World War II liberal
international order. Pictured: Chinese President Xi Jinping meets with Russian
President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on June 5, 2019.
As Russia continues its troop build-up along the border with Ukraine, China has
markedly increased its military activity near Taiwan. The twin geopolitical
flashpoints, separated by 8,000 kilometers (5,000 miles), are raising concerns
that Russia and China could coordinate or conduct concurrent military offensives
that the United States and its allies may find difficult to stop.
A failure to deter Russia and China — deterrence, especially military
pre-positioning near the area under threat, is the least costly way to avoid war
— would deal a potentially crushing blow to the post-World War II liberal
international order. That system, whose principles and norms — including
adherence to the rule of law, respect for human rights and the promotion of
liberal democracy, as well as preserving the sanctity of territorial sovereignty
and existing boundaries — has regulated the conduct of international relations
for nearly 80 years.
Analysts warn that the crisis in Ukraine, which China presumably is closely
watching, may represent a turning point in world politics. An invasion of
Ukraine would open the door for Russia to extend its military tentacles to
countries in the Baltics and Eastern Europe. It could also embolden China to
invade Taiwan, which would allow Beijing to set its sights on economic
powerhouses Japan and South Korea, as well as on other regional allies of the
United States.
Observers worry that Russia and China — so-called revisionist authoritarian
powers seeking to establish a post-Western global order that extols autocracy
over democracy — may leverage control over Ukraine and Taiwan to carve out
exclusive spheres of influence in their respective parts of the globe.
If they succeed in dividing the world into zones of exclusive control, Russia
and China would effectively collapse the Western global order and restore the
unstable international system of great power rivalry that existed before — and
ended with — the two world wars of the twentieth century.
Analysts are divided over the question of whether Russia and China ultimately
will use military force to achieve their territorial ambitions, but nearly all
agree that if they do, it will be because Moscow and Beijing feel emboldened by
their perception that the West — led by the United States and Europe — is weaker
and more divided than at any other point in recent memory.
Russia and Ukraine
A massive build-up of Russian troops along the Ukrainian border has been fueling
speculation of an imminent invasion. In recent months, Russia has deployed at
least 100,000 troops on Ukraine's eastern border, according to satellite images.
An American intelligence document obtained by the Washington Post assessed that
Russia is planning a multi-front offensive involving nearly 200,000 troops. The
unclassified document, which included satellite photos, showed Russian forces
amassing in four locations near Ukraine. Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii
Reznikov has warned that Russia will be ready to invade in late January 2022.
Analysts are divided on what is motivating Putin. Some believe that he is using
the Ukraine issue to deflect from domestic problems, including runaway inflation
and a divisive push for Covid vaccine passports. Others say that Putin is
fixated on restoring Russian control over Ukraine and other former members of
the former Soviet Union.
In July 2021, Putin penned a 7,000-word essay — "On the Historical Unity of
Russians and Ukrainians" — in which he outlined the basis for his claims against
Ukraine. He openly questioned the legitimacy of Ukraine's borders and argued
that modern-day Ukraine occupies "the lands of historical Russia." He concluded:
"I am confident that true sovereignty of Ukraine is possible only in partnership
with Russia."
Putin's essay was variously characterized as "a final ultimatum," "a masterclass
in disinformation," and "one step short of a declaration of war."
British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace, in a hard-hitting article, described
Putin's arguments as "short on accuracy and long on contradictions." He added:
"President Putin's article completely ignores the wishes of the citizens of
Ukraine, while evoking that same type of ethnonationalism which played out
across Europe for centuries and still has the potential to awaken the same
destructive forces of ancient hatred."
Ukrainian MP Oleksiy Goncharenko said:
"Putin's article claims to be about history, but in reality it is about the
future and not the past. Ukraine holds the key to Putin's dreams of restoring
Russia's great power status. He is painfully aware that without Ukraine, this
will be impossible.
"Putin's essay does not actually contain anything new. Indeed, we have already
heard these same arguments many times before. However, his article does help
clarify that the current conflict is not about control over Crimea or eastern
Ukraine's Donbas region; it is a war for the whole of Ukraine. Putin makes it
perfectly clear that his goal is to keep Ukraine firmly within the Russian
sphere of influence and to prevent Ukraine's Euro-Atlantic integration."
Max Seddon, Moscow correspondent for the Financial Times, wrote:
"Analysts say Putin's desire to rid Ukraine of Western influence is underpinned
by a conviction that it is an inalienable part of the 'Russian world,' a
Moscow-centric sphere of influence rooted in the Soviet Union and the Tsarist
empire.
"Putin has described the collapse of the USSR ... as 'the greatest geopolitical
catastrophe of the 20th century' and has questioned the grounds on which Ukraine
broke off from Russia.
"Following Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014, Putin likened the Ukrainian
peninsula, where Vladimir the Great — the first Christian ruler of Rus, a
medieval state ruled from Kyiv — was baptized in 988AD, as 'Russia's Temple
Mount' — a notion that has no theological basis but cast Putin as the protector
of Russians everywhere."
Pavlo Klimkin, Ukraine's former foreign minister, added:
"Putin has a sense of mission on reinstalling a new kind of empire. It's sitting
very deep in his mind. Any separate path of Ukraine would be highly damaging to
the Russian mythology."
Tinatin Khidasheli, former defense minister of Georgia, warned:
"Putin's apparent indifference towards Western warnings is understandable. He
has been hearing the same empty promises of decisive action, typically
accompanied by expressions of grave concern, ever since the Russian invasion of
Georgia in 2008....
"Firmly worded Western statements of condemnation did not deter Putin from
seizing and annexing Crimea. Nor have they succeeded in facilitating the
withdrawal of Russian forces from eastern Ukraine or Moldova....
"We are currently witnessing the logical continuation of this historical
process, with Russia's ambitions now extending to all the countries of the
former Warsaw Pact.
"Putin's recent list of security demands makes clear that he seeks to reassert
Russian domination throughout the post-Soviet space. This will enhance Russia's
claims to superpower status while exposing the inability of the Western powers
to keep their promises. Crucially, it will also allow Putin to safeguard his own
political future....
"None of this was inevitable. Like all bullies, Putin retreats when confronted
by genuine strength and advances only when he senses weakness.... In order to
cut Putin back down to size, all that is necessary is for Western actions to
finally match Western words."
Swedish scholar Anders Åslund concluded:
"Make no mistake: by denying Ukraine's right to independence, Putin is setting
the stage for war. The West must quickly decide what it is willing to do to
prevent it."
China and Taiwan
While Russia has been threatening Ukraine, China has significantly increased its
military and diplomatic intimidation of Taiwan, an island that, since 1949, has
been governed independently of mainland China.
Taiwan considers itself to be a sovereign state, but China says it is a
breakaway province that will be taken by force if necessary. In an October 2021
speech, Chinese President Xi Jinping vowed that Taiwan would be "reunified" with
China:
"No one should underestimate the Chinese people's staunch determination, firm
will, and strong ability to defend national sovereignty and territorial
integrity. The historical task of the complete reunification of the motherland
must be fulfilled — and will definitely be fulfilled."
In July 2021, in a speech marking the 100th birthday of the ruling Chinese
Communist Party, Xi promised to "smash" any Taiwanese attempts at formal
independence:
"Solving the Taiwan question and realizing the complete reunification of the
motherland are the unswerving historical tasks of the Chinese Communist Party
and the common aspiration of all Chinese people. All sons and daughters of
China, including compatriots on both sides of the Taiwan Strait, must work
together and move forward in solidarity, resolutely smashing any 'Taiwan
independence' plots."
Previously, Xi said that Taiwan "must and will be" reunited with China. He also
warned that China reserved the right to use force to bring Taiwan to heel.
Beijing has reinforced its hostile rhetoric by sending record numbers of fighter
jets and nuclear-capable bombers into Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ).
An ADIZ, which extends 12 nautical miles from a country's coast, serves as a
buffer between international airspace and a country's territorial airspace. An
ADIZ allows countries to monitor and respond to aircraft before they actually
enter their airspace.
The number of large-scale incursions — so-called gray-zone warfare, which
entails using irregular tactics to exhaust a foe without actually resorting to
open combat — notably increased after U.S. President Joe Biden took office.
Thomas J. Shattuck, deputy director of the Asia Program at the US-based Foreign
Policy Research Institute, noted:
"After President Joseph Biden took office, the incursions became more
provocative in nature, and the use of fighter jets and nuclear-capable bombers
increased significantly throughout 2021. During Biden's first days in office,
the PLA conducted two consecutive days of exercises in Taiwan's southwestern
ADIZ, which simulated an attack against the nearby USS Theodore Roosevelt
carrier strike group. This two-day exercise, which included 28 aircraft, marked
the highest number of aircraft to enter Taiwan's ADIZ since September 2020.
During Biden's first month in office, fighter jets and nuclear-capable bombers
were used in ten incursions — a significant bump in usage from 2020."
Analysts are divided over the question of whether China will invade Taiwan. Some
argue China does not yet possess the naval and logistics capability successfully
to launch an all-out invasion across the choppy waters of the Taiwan Strait,
which create a natural moat. Others note that an invasion would be a highly
risky gambit; a failure would damage the prestige of the Chinese Communist Party
and possibly lead to its downfall.
In an extensive Reuters report — "The Battle for Taiwan" — analysts David Lague
and Maryanne Murray interviewed two dozen military planners from China, Taiwan,
the United States, Japan and Australia on their views of how China may try to
seize Taiwan, and how the United States might stop it.
"Chinese control of Taiwan would dramatically reinforce the Communist Party's
prestige at home and eliminate the island as a viable model of a democratic
alternative to authoritarian Party rule. It would also give China a foothold in
the so-called first island chain, the line which runs through the string of
islands from the Japanese archipelago to Taiwan, the Philippines and Borneo,
which enclose China's coastal seas.
"For Beijing, success would translate into a commanding strategic position in
Asia, undermining the security of Japan and South Korea, and allowing China to
project power into the Western Pacific. But Beijing also has an incentive to be
cautious: If America and its allies intervened against a takeover attempt, they
could inflict heavy losses on an untested Chinese military that has not fired a
shot in anger for decades. Defeat could weaken the Party's hold on power....
"For the American alliance, a Chinese takeover of Taiwan would be a devastating
blow. At a stroke, the United States would lose its status as the pre-eminent
power in Asia, according to most U.S. and regional military experts. If America
were unwilling or unable to defend Taiwan, its network of allies in the
Asia-Pacific — including Tokyo, Seoul and Canberra — would overnight be far more
vulnerable to military and economic coercion from China. Some might switch
allegiance to Beijing, analysts say. Some might seek nuclear weapons to boost
their own security."
Russia and China
Many observers agree that China is closely watching the U.S. response to
Russia's activities in Ukraine, and that the challenges posed by Russia and
China are a test of American credibility.
In an interview with the New York Times, retired U.S. Navy Admiral James
Stavridis, the former supreme allied commander at NATO, noted:
"Vladimir Putin has invaded two democratic neighbors in just over a decade.
Letting him do it a third time would set the global system back decades.
Appeasement does not work any better now than it worked for Neville Chamberlain
in the late 1930s. China will be watching U.S. support to Ukraine, and it will
inform their calculus regarding Taiwan."
In a statement, U.S. Representative Mike McCaul of Texas, the ranking Republican
on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said:
"I strongly urge President Biden not to make concessions at the expense of our
strategic partner Ukraine in response to the Putin regime's provocative military
buildup. This would not only fail to de-escalate tensions, it would also
embolden Vladimir Putin and his fellow autocrats by demonstrating the United
States will surrender in the face of saber-rattling. Particularly in the
aftermath of the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan and the Nord Stream 2
capitulation, U.S. credibility from Kyiv to Taipei cannot withstand another blow
of this nature."
On December 15, Putin and Xi, in a video call, vowed to defend each other's
interests against the United States and its allies. Yuri Ushakov, a foreign
policy adviser to Putin, said that the Russian president had told his "old
friend" Xi about the "mounting threats to Russia's national interests from the
US and the NATO bloc, which consistently move their military infrastructure
close to the Russian borders." Xi reportedly replied that he sympathized with
Putin and "especially stated his support."
Ushakov added that Xi said China and Russia now had a relationship that was
stronger than an alliance. "At present, certain international forces are
arbitrarily interfering in the internal affairs of China and Russia under the
guise of democracy and human rights, and brutally trampling on international law
and the norms of international relations," Xi said, according to Chinese state
television.
Select Commentary
In a report — "Will Russia Invade Ukraine? Moscow's Threat to European Security"
— published by the UK-based Henry Jackson Society, Ukraine expert Taras Kuzio
warned:
"A weak Western response to a Russian invasion of Ukraine would send the wrong
signal to China. After all, 'Putin speaks of Moscow's eternal bond with Kyiv in
nearly the same way that Chinese leaders demand reunification with Taiwan.' With
Russians and the Chinese viewing Ukraine and Taiwan respectively as part of
their homelands, whatever the West does — or does not do — in response to a
Russian invasion of Ukraine will be eagerly watched in Beijing. China supports
Russia's ultimatums. A 'potential nightmare scenario' in 2022 would be 'Russia
invading Ukraine and China launching a military campaign to take back Taiwan.'"
Michael Schuman, a China scholar at the US-based Atlantic Council, in an essay —
"China is Watching Ukraine With a Lot of Interest" — wrote that the Ukraine
crisis is a crucial test of American global power, and that the United States is
facing the "stiffest challenge" to its global primacy since the fall of the
Soviet Union:
"How Xi interprets (or worse, misinterprets) the outcome of the Ukraine standoff
could influence whether and how China tries to reunify with Taiwan, and thus has
implications for the security and stability of East Asia....
"The fate of Ukraine has become intimately entangled in this renewed big-power
competition.... At stake is the balance of power between the U.S. and Russia in
Eastern Europe. The outcome, though, could reverberate well beyond the region,
and well into the future, affecting whether American power will remain strong
enough to maintain peace and advance democracy — or whether the world's
autocracies will claw back clout that they lost decades ago.
"Leaders such as Putin and Xi may see an opportunity. 'The problem for Biden is
that their view is that they should test him at all times, and they are. And he
has so far not really passed those tests with any distinction,' Danielle Pletka,
a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, told me. 'This is a very
important period.'
"Xi may believe that Taiwan is drifting in a direction harmful to China's
national interests, just as Ukraine has strayed ever further from Moscow's
orbit. Taiwan's independent-minded president, Tsai Ing-wen, has tried to reduce
the economy's reliance on China and strengthen ties to the U.S. and other
countries.' Washington, too, has sought closer links. Officially, the U.S. still
upholds a 'one China" policy and does not formally recognize the Taipei
government. But it's not hard to discern why Xi might think otherwise....
"In light of all this, Xi will be scrutinizing the situation in Ukraine for
useful intelligence about which tools Biden can and ultimately will employ to
pressure Russia to back off, how much he is willing to give up in a potential
compromise with Putin, and how effectively the U.S. president works with allies
and even his own diplomats. China's leader, in other words, will be looking to
measure the level of American resolve....
"Ukraine and Taiwan both show how easily U.S. weakness — or even the mere
perception of weakness — could unravel the strained networks and alliances that
support the American world order and usher in a new era of global conflict and
instability.... The Putins and Xis of the world are probing for those
weaknesses, watching the results, and calculating their next move."
Analyst Seth Cropsey, in commentary titled "The Two-Headed Fight for Ukraine and
Taiwan," wrote that Russia and China are working together to upend the existing
world order:
"Although separated by geography, Ukraine and Taiwan occupy similar positions in
the Russian and Chinese strategic experience and historical imagination.
Capturing each is essential to all other strategic objectives. For Russia,
taking Ukraine would secure its hold on the Black Sea and open other pressure
points against vulnerable NATO members Romania and Bulgaria. For the Chinese
Communist Party, seizing Taiwan would allow the country to break out of the
First Island Chain and conduct offensive operations against Japan, the
Philippines and even U.S. territories in the Central Pacific.
"Historically, post-Soviet Russia's ruling oligarchy has cultivated intense
grievances against independent Ukraine. It is a living reminder that Slavic
peoples need not live under one flag. Taiwan is proof that Chinese-speaking
peoples are fully capable of governing themselves. The modern Communist Party
stems from a brutal revolutionary regime that savaged the Chinese people,
murdering millions through its messianic ambitions and sheer incompetence. Only
by consuming Taiwan can China confirm its superiority. Given the political
capital the Communist Party has invested in subduing Taiwan, it may no longer
have a way to de-escalate even if it wanted to.
"The clearest obstacle to Russian and Chinese escalation is Ukraine's and
Taiwan's affiliations with the U.S. and its allies....
"Roughly concurrent offensive operations in two hemispheres would overstress
American and allied resources.... The U.S. must begin thinking about its
strategic challenges globally, not in regional segments. This is a contest for
Eurasia — and thus for the world."
*Soeren Kern is a Senior Fellow at the New York-based Gatestone Institute.
© 2022 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
Two Questions about the Vienna Charade
Amir Taheri/Asharq Al-Awsat/January 21/2022
“Cautiously optimistic!” This is how European Union’s foreign policy spokesman
Josep Borrel sees the current talks in Vienna centered on the “nuke deal”
concocted by then US President Barack Obama six years ago.
Whether or not Borrel, who has no meaningful role in the talks, is relevant, is
beside the point. The point is that all participants in this charade are keen to
pull a rabbit out of the Viennese hat. The Biden administration is desperate for
a diplomatic “success” by reversing one of Donald Trump’s "faux pas". The Tehran
mullahs are also keen to ease their cash-flow problem and claim another
“historic victory” for Islamic diplomacy. The Europeans, that is to say,
Britain, France, and Germany which are directly involved, hope to maintain a
semblance of relevance in international politics.
Posing as godfathers of the Islamic Republic, China and Russia hope to keep
their godson on a life-support machine that enables it to do mischief against
the West without becoming strong enough to develop Oedipus-like ambitions.
By coincidence last Monday when the Vienna talks resumed marked the anniversary
of the “implementation” of the Obama deal known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan
of Action.
Celebrating the “starting day in implementation of (JCPOA) Hassan Rouhani, then
President of the Islamic Republic, boasted that he had humbled “the Great Satan”
and that all sanctions imposed on Iran would be lifted that very day. Needless
to say, that didn’t happen. In fact, the opposite happened. Sanctions imposed on
Iran rose from 700 cases to over 1,700 cases under Obama and then Trump and has
continued to increase under Biden.
At the same time, after dismantling a good part of its nuclear infrastructure,
Tehran has revived its most problematic aspects. China and Russia, too, have not
carried out their commitments, Russia by refusing to transfer half of the
uranium stocks enriched by Iran to Russian territory, and China by backing out
of redesigning the plutonium plant in Arak.
As for the European trio, they have made contradictory noises to calm the nerves
in Tehran but have danced to every tune played by Washington.
According to Ali-Akbar Salehi, a former Islamic Foreign Minister and head of the
Iran Atomic Agency, the JCPOA took 15 years to negotiate. If we add the time
since its supposed implementation, we could say that JCPOA dominated Iran’s
foreign policy for almost a quarter of a century. And, yet, neither the mullahs
nor their negotiating partners are able to tell us what this charade is all
about.
This confusion was illustrated by the inability of Tehran and Washington, the
two real protagonists, to tell us what the new Vienna talks are about.
The Biden administration started by saying this was about “undoing the damage
that Trump” had done. A couple of weeks later, however, Secretary of State
Anthony Blinken said that the US had “other concerns” that had to be addressed.
That was followed by a new tune from Washington threatening to unveil a “Plan B”
and the “all options are on the table” mantra. The Khomeinist side was equally
vague about the purpose of the talks.
At first, Tehran said that “the aim is to return to JCPOA, nothing less and
nothing more.” It even claimed that a deal to “clarify aspects of JCPOA”,
negotiated by Rouhani’s “New York Boys” before Biden took over, could be the
template for a new deal. After a few days, Tehran announced that it had
presented three “detailed proposals”, supposedly to cover issues besides the
nuclear rigmarole. That was followed by the claim that the talks were not at all
about the nuclear issue but about “the end of all sanctions” on the Islamic
Republic.
Currently, Tehran’s official media are not allowed to mention the nuclear issue
in headlines. The headline they offer is: Talks on the end of sanctions against
Iran.
By the time this column appears that headline, too, may change as the new
Islamic officials and their media outlets in Tehran have started speaking of “
the US paying compensation to the Islamic Republic” and any commitments by Iran
being conditional on “verification” of American actions. In other words, Tehran
is talking of total surrender by the Biden administration while Washington hopes
to score a low-cost diplomatic victory.
In any negotiations, in both private and public domains, two crucial questions
must be answered.
First, what are negotiations about and, second, who are those one is negotiating
with?
In the case of Vienna talks, it must be clear to anyone who wishes to see that
these talks are not about Iran’s nuclear program or breaches of the Nuclear
Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT).
Had that been the issue, the problem would have been resolved long ago through
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in accordance with NPT rules. At least
18 countries, among them Argentina, South Africa, and Federal Germany, had
similar problems with the IAEA but managed to quickly resolve them through
normal diplomacy.
The problem the world has with the Islamic Republic isn’t its quest for nuclear
capability. It is the Islamic Republic’s role as “upsetter” of regional and, on
a smaller scale, global peace and stability, that is a cause for concern even
for China and Russia which play godfather to it.
Tehran’s game plan is to obtain some relief that would give it access to the
cash it needs to finance its “upsetting” policies.
As to who the 5+1 is negotiating with, it is obvious that the current Iran chief
negotiator Baqeri Kani is a small cog in a machine designed to challenge the
world order.
Former Iranian Foreign Minister Muhammad-Javad Zarif put it succinctly when he
said “We’ve decided to live differently”, and part of that difference is to be
anti-American without which, he emphasized, Iran would at best be another
Islamic Republic like Pakistan that no one would give a damn about.
Muhammad-Reza Naqdi, Cultural Chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)
says the same thing in his words: “The mission of the Islamic Revolution
concerns all mankind. The world today faces an ideological vacuum that only our
Islamic ideology can fill. Leftist ideologies died long ago and neo-liberalism
has failed. What remains is the alternative that we offer to humanity.”
Naqdi claims that a 3rd and 4th World Wars have already happened between the
Islamic Republic and its “Resistance” proxies on one side and the US and its
allies on the other, ending with Iran’s victory. The new world order will be
dictated by Tehran with China and Russia as twin Sancho Panza.
Naqdi’s superior Gen; Hussein Salami says that after the assassination of Gen.
Qassem Soleimani,“The Islamic Republic had prepared for a war with the US
envisaging “the killing of 10 million people” in the region.
Irrationality isn’t the opposite of rationality; it is in a category of its own.
Taking Biden seriously
Khairallah Khairallah/The Arab Weekly/January 21/2022
Talking alone is not enough. Condemnations remain only condemnations in the
absence of practical positions on the part of the US administration regarding
the “Islamic Republic” of Iran after it used its proxy Houthi militia, which
calls itself the “Ansar Allah group”, to attack the United Arab Emirates and Abu
Dhabi in particular. It is certain that the UAE can defend itself, but it is
also certain that the United States should stand by its allies when they are
victims of aggression. The Joe Biden administration should call a spade a spade,
especially with regard to the Houthis and their behaviour and show that it knows
the region and will not be a continuation of Barack Obama's administration,
which signed a nuclear agreement with Iran in the summer of 2015.
That agreement, which provided the Iranian treasury with billions of dollars,
was a gift to the “Islamic Republic.” At the time, Iran was able, through the
Revolutionary Guard, which practically controls the levers of power, to exploit
every dollar that Iran obtained as a reward for signing the agreement. It
invested every cent in the service of its expansionist project to boost its
sectarian militias all over the region.
It seems clear that just as the Obama administration somehow ignored the nature
of Iran's “Islamic Republic”, the Biden administration appears to take an even
more negative attitude towards its allies, especially in Yemen. It seems to be
telling everyone concerned that it actually has accounts to settle with its
allies.
Evidence of this mindset lay in its rush to remove the Houthis from the US
terrorism list. This happened right after Joe Biden entered the White House,
exactly a year ago.
The result was that the Houthis rejected all peace initiatives. Washington's
moves were of little use. On the contrary, the Houthis demonstrated more
hostility, rejecting any overtures of any kind that would have shown that they
want a peaceful settlement in Yemen.
It is no secret that the Biden administration has reservations about Saudi
Arabia's policies in certain areas. But it is also no secret that the Houthis do
not want peace in Yemen. They have attacked Saudi Arabia and have now moved to
attack the UAE. Moreover, it is patently obvious that what the current US
administration is doing is in fact encouraging the Houthis to be more
aggressive. They are in truth more hostile towards the United States itself. A
few weeks ago, the Houthis stormed the US embassy in Sana'a. Not only did they
search the embassy offices, which were empty of any diplomats, but also detained
twenty local employees. They still hold five of them to this day. The Biden
administration's bet on Houthi moderation did not go very far.
One is reminded of the Obama administration in everything the Biden
administration does. The issue, for the "Islamic Republic" and for the Houthis
as well, is one of just letting time do its bidding. It seems that the
administration remains convinced that Iran wants an agreement in Vienna and that
the Houthis are still looking for a peaceful solution in Yemen. There is no
point in such a policy, at a time when there is instead a need to tell Iran
there is no future, of any kind, for its expansionist project based on the
deployment of its sectarian militias in the region. Iran should be told there is
no way for it to reach an agreement with the Group of Five Plus one, which
includes the US, without abiding by logic, which dictates that Iran cannot
continue its current behaviour beyond its borders or keep its missiles outside
any agreement.
Logic also says that Iran cannot engage in destruction both at home and abroad.
Evidence for that is the economic failure in the “Islamic Republic” itself and
to what Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen are subjected at the hands of the
militias affiliated with the Revolutionary Guard. Can the mullahs' regime in
Iran reconcile itself with logic? The answer to such a question will determine
the next developments in the entire region.
While waiting for Iran to reconcile itself with logic, the Biden administration
must be convinced that accommodating the Houthis is not a sound policy and that
the “Ansar Allah” group would never have changed its position towards the
political solution in Yemen once it was removed from the terrorism list.
This group cannot accept any peace initiative nor any dialogue in light of the
current balance of power, which the Giants Brigade forces have now succeeded in
altering. This is reason enough for the Biden White House to start looking at
the region realistically ... and then for everyone else, including its allies,
to start taking this administration seriously.
Abu Dhabi attack shows talking to Iran is futile
Hussain Abdul-Hussain/The Arab Weekly/January 21/2022
When the UAE held talks with the Iranian regime last month, things appeared to
go as well as could be expected. National Security Advisor Sheikh Tahnoun bin
Zayed landed in Iran on December 6 and invited President Ebrahim Raisi to visit
Abu Dhabi next month.
But instead of returning the goodwill, Iran’s militia in Yemen, the Houthis,
responded this week with an attack on civilian targets in the UAE’s capital. The
strikes, which included the use of weaponised drones, targeted a fuel storage
depot, killing three people and injuring six more. The attacks also caused a
fire near Abu Dhabi airport. Tehran’s about face from dialogue to drone warfare
proves that President Joe Biden, with his mantra that “only talking” to Iran can
bring regional stability, is terribly wrong. Like most other rogue states, the
only diplomacy that works with Iran is the old-fashioned version described by
President Theodore Roosevelt as “speak softly and carry a big stick.”
Emirati dialogue with Tehran did not protect the UAE from Houthi attacks because
Iran views global affairs as a zero sum game that has no place for neutral
players or gray areas. In its showdown with America and Israel, Tehran wants
governments in the region to pick sides and suffer consequences if they go
against Iran. Cognisant of the escalating tension between Iran and Israel, and
aware that its growing peace with the Jewish state might be seen as closing the
door on Iran, Abu Dhabi sent Sheikh Tahnoun to Iran with a clear message: the
UAE plans to sit out any possible military confrontation between Israel and
Iran. While Abu Dhabi might have favourites, it will keep its choices to itself
and will not give either side a hand. Iran seemingly approved of the UAE’s
message and tried to use the trip as a photo opportunity to signal to other
regional capitals that Tehran is the new sheriff in town and that other Gulf
governments must court and befriend the regime. Iranian antagonism towards the
UAE, however, might not only be about regional politics. The successful Emirati
model is the antithesis of the Islamist government that Iran preaches. In the
UAE, peace, meritocracy and a knowledge economy have given millions of Emiratis
and expatriate residents the opportunity to live, thrive and prosper. On the
contrary, the Iranian model is about war, killing, coercion and religious
fundamentalism. In the Iranian model, there is no place for countries that want
to live and let live.
Tehran, therefore, wanted to remind the UAE that while its model is successful,
it is also vulnerable to wars. And because Tehran is gifted in starting
conflicts and spreading destruction, it wants the UAE to know that Abu Dhabi
must take Tehran’s side against Washington, or suffer the consequences.
The weakness of the Biden administration has aggravated the problem. Biden’s
ideological and unrealistic foreign policy has invited Iran to bully its
neighbours, a behavior that Tehran never dared to show after the Donald Trump
administration killed the Iranian commander Qassem Soleimani.
Evidence substantiating the argument that Tehran ordered the strike against the
UAE is the technology used in the attack: Initial reports suggest Iranian-made
explosive drones and possibly ballistic missiles. Pro-Iran militias are rarely
allowed to operate such technology without Iranian supervision, or at least
permission. Past behaviour of the pro-Iran militias gives further clues on how
the Iranian chain of command works. In Lebanon, for example, Iran’s Hezbollah
enjoys full independence on domestic policies. But when it comes to regional
conflagrations, Iran calls the shots.
During the early years of the Syrian war, Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah
repeatedly denied that the conflict was taking place. Sources close to the
party’s leadership said that the pro-Iran militia planned to sit out the war.
Iran, however, ordered Hezbollah in. Like in Lebanon, also in Iraq, Tehran has
often overruled its proteges on regional issues. On domestic issues, Iran lets
its militias decide their moves. When militias need support, Iran is usually
happy to oblige, like in the explosive drone attack that targeted Prime Minister
Mustafa Al-Kadhimi in Baghdad. Only two airports offered the airstrip required
for the drones to take off. One is in southern Iran, the other on the Iraqi
border with Syria. Both bases are controlled by the Iranian regime, yet the
attack was claimed by the pro-Iran militias.
This is probably what happened in the attack on the UAE: Iranian agents in Yemen
commanded the attack and operated the drones, the Houthis took credit.
Another possible Iranian motive behind the attack on Abu Dhabi could have been
the humiliation that Tehran suffered after a number of mysterious bombings hit
the country over the weekend. In retaliation, Iran decided to drag the UAE into
the conflict, despite Abu Dhabi’s efforts to stay out and maintain good
neighbourly ties with Tehran. Tehran has a long history of losing friends. The
regime’s decision to turn on the UAE at such a moment might be one that the
Islamic republic will come to regret in the future.
Iran protests show regime that change is in the air
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/January 21, 2022
The latest social and political developments in Iran indicate that the winds of
change are blowing firmly against the regime.
For example, on Jan. 5, a giant statue of Qassem Soleimani was installed in the
city of Shahr-e Kord. It was unveiled with much fanfare just ahead of the second
anniversary of Soleimani’s elimination in a US drone strike. However, mere hours
later, the statue was engulfed in flames after being set alight by dissidents,
dealing a major blow to the state propaganda that portrays the former Quds Force
commander as a “hero.”
Just a couple of days earlier, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi delivered a
televised speech in which he promised revenge for Soleimani’s death. But the
daring burning of the statue served as yet another reminder that the Iranian
people despise the regime and its officials.
The incident was also an indicator of the opposition’s courage, rapid rise and
increasing organizational prowess. As footage of the daring act was widely
broadcast on social media and satellite TV channels, the regime was stunned.
That is why the supreme leader’s representative in the province where the statue
was erected issued a fiery statement urging the participation of regime
adherents in a “memorial” to express “hatred and disgust” for those who
committed the act. It is clear that the ensuing procession was carefully
stage-managed by regime authorities.
Tehran scrambled to reclaim control of Soleimani’s legacy by staging the first
of its stage-managed rallies. But the propaganda campaign appears to have failed
miserably, especially as the people of Iran recognize who Soleimani really was.
Over the past four years alone, Iran has witnessed several nationwide uprisings
and many smaller local protests. During the nationwide November 2019 uprising,
the regime brutally gunned down approximately 1,500 peaceful protesters in a
matter of a few days. Thereafter, the judiciary, then led by Raisi, undertook a
months-long campaign of arrests and systematic torture.
However, this crackdown did not stop tens of thousands of Iranian citizens from
taking to the streets in January 2020 after the Islamic Revolutionary Guard
Corps shot down a commercial airliner in the skies above Tehran, killing all 176
people on board. During these protests, social media exploded with countless
videos of protesters chanting against the IRGC and burning a number of
billboards featuring Soleimani’s image.
The Iranian people also overwhelmingly boycotted the regime’s 2020 parliamentary
and 2021 presidential elections in order to protest the Islamic Republic. The
daring burning of Soleimani’s statue served as yet another reminder that the
Iranian people despise the regime and its officials
Over the last two years, the scope of anti-regime activities has increased
thanks to the political opposition’s so-called Resistance Units, with notable
upsurges around the time of Raisi’s inauguration and the anniversary of
Soleimani’s death. The burning of the statue came after several other images of
Soleimani were also burned or taken down by activists over the course of several
weeks. Such acts of resistance have been hugely popular in Iran and on social
media.
In the wake of similar incidents, the Iranian regime usually blames the National
Council of Resistance of Iran. For example, at the height of a recent uprising,
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said in a speech that the oppositional group had
“planned for months” to popularize anti-regime slogans such as “death to the
dictator,” and to facilitate simultaneous protests in many cities and towns.
This admission stood in stark contrast to the regime’s decades-long propaganda
that the NCRI was a marginal movement, lacking a popular base and incapable of
mounting a genuine challenge to the mullahs’ hold on power.
At the same time, anyone suspected of even mildly sympathizing with the group
risks arrest, torture and even execution. Over the years, numerous activists
have been sentenced to lengthy prison terms or executed for distributing its
literature or offering financial contributions to the organization. Iranian
officials are consistently sounding alarms regarding the NCRI’s growth and
increasing popularity. As social unrest deepens, those concerns have been
amplified. The authorities have displayed concerns about the rapid spread,
politicization and organization of the protests in Iran and blamed the group.
The NCRI, which is considered to be the most organized and powerful Iranian
opposition movement, has sought democratic change in the country for the past
four decades.
In conclusion, the latest facts on the ground in Iran signal that change is in
the air. This carries an important message for the international community in
2022: The clock is ticking for the ruling theocracy and the ayatollahs are
facing a growing challenge at home. This promises a bright future for a
democratic and non-nuclear Iran.
• Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian-American political
scientist. Twitter: @Dr_Rafizadeh