English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For  May 09/2026
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

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Bible Quotations For today
The Spirit of the Lord is upon me, because he has anointed meto bring good news to the poor
Luke 04/14-21: “Then Jesus, filled with the power of the Spirit, returned to Galilee, and a report about him spread through all the surrounding country. He began to teach in their synagogues and was praised by everyone. When he came to Nazareth, where he had been brought up, he went to the synagogue on the sabbath day, as was his custom. He stood up to read, and the scroll of the prophet Isaiah was given to him. He unrolled the scroll and found the place where it was written: ‘The Spirit of the Lord is upon me, because he has anointed meto bring good news to the poor. He has sent me to proclaim release to the captives and recovery of sight to the blind,to let the oppressed go free, to proclaim the year of the Lord’s favour.’ And he rolled up the scroll, gave it back to the attendant, and sat down. The eyes of all in the synagogue were fixed on him. Then he began to say to them, ‘Today this scripture has been fulfilled in your hearing.’”

Titles For Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on 08-09 May/2026
May 07, 2008 Barbaric Invasion of Beirut & Mount Lebanon/Elias Bejjani/May 07/2026
May 6 Martyrs' Day: Assassinating Memory to Flatter the New Ottoman-Erdoganist "Sublime Porte"/Elias Bejjani/May 06/ 2026
Rubio says U.S. won't negotiate with Hezbollah but with Lebanese state
What will new Lebanon-Israel talks discuss?
US says Lebanon-Israel talks to seek 'comprehensive peace and security agreement'
Aoun: Lebanon insists on ceasefire to end volatile situation in south
EU official calls for Hezbollah 'to cease attacks and be disarmed'
Israeli strikes kill 5 in south Lebanon including women, paramedic
Civil defense rescuer killed in Israeli strike on Rashaya-Kfarshouba road
Sirens sound in northern Israel after shelling from Lebanon
EU reaffirms strong humanitarian commitment to Lebanon as official visits Beirut
UNRWA shelters and assists displaced as hostilities persist despite truce
Recent US-Iran violence threatens Lebanon's shaky ceasefire
More than half of Lebanon population depends on aid: EU official
Lebanese President Meets Delegation Chief ahead of Direct Israel Talks
Hezbollah Says Launched Missiles at Military Base in North Israel
US Aims to Consolidate Lebanon-Israel Ceasefire Before Negotiations
Who Are the Radwan Commanders Israel Has Killed in Lebanon?
Beirut's Tents/Samir Atallah/Asharq Al Awsat/8 May 2026
Hezbollah' and the Monopoly on Narrative/Mustafa Fahs/Asharq Al Awsat/8 May 2026
Lebanon and the Regional Settlement: Two Decisive Tests/Nabil Bou Monsef/An-Nahar/May 08/2026
The Final Lebanon War?/David Daoud & Jonathan Schanzer/The Dispatch/May 08/2026

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on 08-09 May/2026
Adviser to Iran Supreme Leader Compares Control of Hormuz to ‘Atomic Bomb’
Rubio says US expecting Iran response Friday
Rubio urges Europeans to share the Iran burden
US and Iran trade fire, threatening fragile truce
Trump says ceasefire still holds after fighting between the US and Iran flares
Trump announces three-day Ukraine-Russia ceasefire
US VP Vance meeting with Qatar PM to discuss Iran, source says
US military says it carries out retaliatory strikes against Iran
Suspected oil spill seen on satellite images near Iran’s Kharg Island export hub
UAE says responding to missiles, drone attacks from Iran
US fire on Iran tankers sparks reprisals as deal hangs in balance
Iraq denies US claims deputy oil minister helped Iran evade sanctions
US Fires on and Disables 2 More Iranian Tankers as Tensions Rise in Strait of Hormuz
Rubio Urges Europeans to Share the Iran Burden
Saudi Source to Asharq Al-Awsat: Kingdom Did Not Allow Use of Its Airspace for Offensive Military Operations
New Gaza Police Force Faces Uncertainty over Composition, Representation
Syria Says Arrested Assad-Era General Over Chemical Attack
Three-Member Committee Negotiates With Washington on Disarming Iraqi Factions

Titles For The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on 08-09 May/2026
Europe's 'Global Alliance' Is Not Peace, It Is Dispossession by Another Name/Avner Amichai/Gatestone Institute/May 08/2026
Winning the Iran War — Whether Washington Knows It or Not/Mark Dubowitz/ The Iran Breakdown/May 08/2026
Palestinian ‘pay to slay’ shows why Trump’s 20-point plan for Gaza is needed/Natalie Ecanow/Washington Examiner/May 08/2026
Syria’s Accommodation of Foreign Jihadists Backfires/Ahmad Sharawi/FDD-Policy Brief/May 08/2026
Iran’s War in Iraq Reveals Militias’ Expanding Grip/Baghdad, London: Ali Saray/Asharq Al-Awsat/8 May 2026
Iran War: Cup Moving Toward the Lip?/Amir Taheri/Asharq Al Awsat/8 May 2026
What to expect when you’re expecting peace/Makram Rabah/Al Arabiya English/08 May ,2026
President Trump’s state visit to China: When elephants dance/Cornelia Meyer/Al Arabiya English/08 May ,2026
Selected Face Book & X tweets for May 08/2026

Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on 08-09 May/2026
May 07, 2008 Barbaric Invasion of Beirut & Mount Lebanon
Elias Bejjani/May 07/2026
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2026/05/118016/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_WOToQkmfMU&t=81s
May 7, 2008, is forever etched in Lebanon’s collective memory as a criminal day of shame—when murderers, invaders, and mercenary militias serving the Iranian regime launched a barbaric coup against the Lebanese state, its people, and its sovereignty.
Hezbollah, in collaboration with Amal Movement, the Syrian Social Nationalist Party (SSNP), and other armed groups loyal to the Syrian-Iranian axis of evil, invaded the capital Beirut and parts of Mount Lebanon. In this coordinated and premeditated assault, these militias violated the sanctity of the capital, terrorized its peaceful civilians, displaced families, looted properties, tortured innocents, and murdered the defenseless—all under the pretext of resisting “government decisions” that challenged Hezbollah’s illegal military communications network.
This day, now known infamously as the "Black 7th of May," marked a turning point in Lebanon’s modern history—a moment when the mask of so-called "resistance" fell and exposed the true face of Hezbollah: a terrorist militia acting on behalf of Tehran to subdue Lebanon through force and intimidation.
Michel Aoun, the political Iscariot of modern Lebanon, opportunistically justified and later benefited from this criminal invasion. His alliance with Hezbollah paved his path to the presidency in 2016. During his tenure, Aoun dismantled the state from within, surrendered its institutions to Hezbollah’s authority, and contributed to Lebanon’s total collapse—politically, economically, and morally.
The May 7 invasion was not just a military operation. It was an Iranian-led coup attempt against the legitimate Lebanese state. It desecrated Beirut’s freedom, targeted Sunni neighborhoods, occupied media outlets, and left dozens dead. Its goal: to prove that no Lebanese authority—civil or military—could ever stand against Hezbollah without paying a deadly price.
To this day, the invasion’s consequences remain: Hezbollah continues to act as an armed state within a state. Palestinian and Syrian armed elements still operate freely in their camps. The sovereignty of Lebanon remains hostage to Tehran's regional ambitions.
Justice Delayed Is Not Justice Denied
This criminal and barbaric invasion must not be forgotten. The perpetrators—local and foreign—must one day be brought to justice. The Lebanese people, especially those in the diaspora, must continue to demand accountability, justice, and full implementation of international resolutions that uphold Lebanon’s independence and sovereignty.
As the Prophet Isaiah (33:1) warned:
“Woe to you, O destroyer, you who have not been destroyed! Woe to you, O traitor, you who have not been betrayed! When you stop destroying, you will be destroyed; when you cease betraying, you will be betrayed.”
What Must Be Done.
To ensure May 7 is never repeated, the following urgent measures must be taken:
Full disarmament of Hezbollah and all other Lebanese, Palestinian, and Syrian militias operating illegally within Lebanon.
Reclaiming all territories currently run as militia-controlled “mini-states,” including Hezbollah’s southern stronghold and armed Palestinian camps.
Immediate implementation of all relevant UN Security Council resolutions—particularly:
Resolution 1559 (2004): Calls for the disbanding and disarmament of all Lebanese and non-Lebanese militias.
Resolution 1701 (2006): Demands the cessation of hostilities and prohibits the presence of any armed forces in South Lebanon other than the Lebanese Army and UNIFIL.
Resolution 1680 (2006): Urges Lebanon and Syria to delineate their border and establish full diplomatic relations.
The 1949 Armistice Agreement with Israel: Must be revived and fully enforced to restore border stability and end militia cross-border provocations.
Declare Lebanon a failed state under Chapter VII of the UN Charter, enabling international intervention to restore state authority and protect civilians.
Empower UNIFIL with an expanded mandate to enforce disarmament and administrative restoration across all Lebanese territories—not only the South.
A Call to Action
All free and patriotic Lebanese—at home and abroad—must unite to rescue their homeland from occupation, collapse, and sectarian tyranny. We must raise our voices at the United Nations, in international forums, and in the global media to demand an end to Hezbollah’s armed rule and the restoration of Lebanese sovereignty.
May Almighty God protect Lebanon and its people, and may justice prevail.

May 6 Martyrs' Day: Assassinating Memory to Flatter the New Ottoman-Erdoganist "Sublime Porte"
Elias Bejjani/May 06/ 2026
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2026/05/154243/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hKvtNSaJ2c0&t=2s
On the day the gallows were erected in Beirut’s Martyrs' Square (Place des Canons) and Damascus’s Marjeh Square, over 120 writers, intellectuals, and free freedom fighters were executed in two waves. They were the defiant voices against 400 years of Ottoman occupation. By order of the butcher, Jamal Pasha, these executions in Beirut and Damascus were synchronized to silence the spirit of resistance. In Lebanon, this commemoration was abolished during the government of Prime Minister Siniora. Today, in Syria, under the transitional president, it has also been scrapped. Erasing Lebanon’s memory is an integral part of obliterating its identity, history, civilization, and the rights of its diverse peoples. The same applies to the diverse social fabric of Syria.
May 6: When Memory is Assassinated for Political Sycophancy
As May 6, 2026, passes—burdened by the 110-year-old wounds of the gallows set by Jamal Pasha—we face a surreal scene that transcends physical execution to the moral genocide of historical memory. What we are witnessing in Lebanon and Syria today is not a mere "calendar adjustment," but a systematic forgery of history. It aims to wipe away the blood of free martyrs with the rag of "political flattery" toward rising Turkish influence and its Muslim Brotherhood tools.
The Lebanese Forgery: From "Martyrs' Day" to "Press Day"
The conspiracy against memory in Lebanon began under the Siniora government, where the sanctity of this day was bypassed. It was downgraded from a "Day for Martyrs" who confronted four centuries of loathsome Ottoman occupation to a mere "Press Martyrs' Day." This distortion was no accident; it was a stab in the back of Lebanese identity and blatant sycophancy toward the Turkish-Brotherhood and Arafatist-Arabist axis. Limiting the commemoration to the press is an attempt to belittle the struggle of an entire nation and a deliberate oversight of the fact that those hanged were poets, thinkers, and national leaders whose only crime was demanding dignity in the face of the "Sick Man of Europe."
Syria: Falling into the Trap of "Erdoganist Flattery"
The scene in Syria is no different. With Ahmed al-Sharaa’s rise to power, we see a repetition of the Lebanese scenario through the abolition of the holiday. This move confirms that the political decision in Damascus has become a hostage to Turkish influence. The Syrian people are being forced to forget the atrocities of Jamal Pasha so as not to disturb the relations with Ankara's new "Sultan," Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Pillars of the Historical Crime
The Erasure of Identity: Abolishing Martyrs' Day is part of a broader scheme to erase the civilizational and pluralistic identity of Lebanon and Syria, replacing it with a subservient identity revolving around a "Neo-Caliphate."
Falsification of Facts: In 1916, gallows were set for over 120 free activists. Transforming this supreme sacrifice into a single professional category (the press) is a forgery of history, which documents that their martyrdom was a comprehensive cry for national independence.
Political Dependency: The abolition of this day in both countries proves that successive governments prefer pleasing foreign powers over remaining loyal to the blood of those who paved the way for independence.
A Cry for Historical Justice
Today, on the 110th anniversary (1916–2026), we demand:
Restoring May 6 as a comprehensive national holiday for all martyrs of freedom executed by the Ottoman occupation, not a restricted "professional day."Designating a separate day for Press Martyrs to honor their role without compromising the greater national memory.
Rejecting all forms of flattery toward Turkish influence or Brotherhood ideologies that attempt to whitewash the history of Ottoman crimes in our lands. In summary, A nation that forgets its martyrs is a nation without a future. Those who erase the memory of Martyrs' Square and Marjeh Square are merely paving the way for new gallows of dependency and subjugation." May 6, 2026: Our squares will remain witnesses, and "Jamal Pasha" will remain a criminal in the records of history, no matter how hard the sycophants try to bleach his record.
The Stages of the Crime: Abolishing Martyrs’ Day to Maliciously Alter Collective Memory and Erase the Legacy of Resistance Against Ottoman Occupation. Martyrs' Day (May 6) has undergone several amendments in the official Lebanese calendar, most notably during the government of Prime Minister Fouad Siniora:
Date of Abolition: Martyrs' Day was abolished as a public holiday and a unifying national day in 2005, during the term of President Emile Lahoud and the first government of Prime Minister Fouad Siniora.
The Substitution: The official symbolism of this day was shifted from "Martyrs' Day"—which commemorates the patriots executed by Jamal Pasha in 1916—to "Press Martyrs' Day." Consequently, the observance became restricted to the Press and Editors’ Syndicates, with work only halting in newspapers, rather than remaining a comprehensive national holiday for the entire state.
Historical Background: May 6 had been an official holiday since its inception but was first abolished in 1977 during the Lebanese Civil War. It was reinstated as an official national holiday in 1994.The Siniora government’s 2005 decision revoked its "public holiday" status once again, confining it to a professional syndicate framework under the title of "Press Martyrs."This calculated move aims to distort the collective memory associated with the struggle against Ottoman occupation by narrowing its scope to a specific professional group.

Rubio says U.S. won't negotiate with Hezbollah but with Lebanese state
Naharnet/08 May ,2026
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio blamed Hezbollah Friday for the situation in Lebanon, accusing the group of being fully dependent on Iranian support. "The reason why Lebanon faces bombings, the reason why Lebanon faces violence, is because of Hezbollah. It is Hezbollah that’s imposing this on them," Rubio told reporters during a visit to Rome. He said the goal was "a strong Lebanese government that doesn’t have an armed Hezbollah operating within its national territory imposing a threat to any of its neighbors," adding that Italy could assist "in cutting off the illicit financing that supports Hezbollah and the danger they pose." "Hezbollah wouldn’t exist without Iran’s support," Rubio said, adding that he thinks the group has been weakened, but "is still capable of inflicting damage and doing terroristic activities, as we’ve seen".
Rubio said the U.S. won't negotiate with Hezbollah nor with Iran over Hezbollah, but with the Lebanese state.

What will new Lebanon-Israel talks discuss?
Naharnet/08 May ,2026
Lebanon and Israel will hold a third round of direct talks in Washington on Thursday and Friday next week. "Thursday's discussions will focus solely on consolidating the ceasefire, while Friday's discussions will move to other issues related to Israeli withdrawal, the return of captives, the return of displaced persons, and other details," MTV reported. "President Joseph Aoun is making exceptional efforts and intensive contacts to solidify the ceasefire before Thursday, in order to ensure a comfortable atmosphere for the negotiating delegation and the Lebanese interior," MTV said. Ambassador Simon Karam, who will lead the Lebanese delegation this time, will leave Lebanon Saturday for Washington, MTV added. Aoun later met with Karam and gave him instructions prior to his travel to the U.S., the Presidency said. Israel's public broadcaster meanwhile reported that Washington is "pushing to prevent a renewal of fighting amid a move to involve Lebanese and Israeli military personnel in negotiations to extend the truce next week."

US says Lebanon-Israel talks to seek 'comprehensive peace and security agreement'
Naharnet/08 May ,2026
The United States will facilitate two days of "intensive talks" between the governments of Israel and Lebanon on May 14 and 15, the U.S. State Department said on Friday
"Building on the April 23 round, which was led personally by (U.S.) President (Donald) Trump, both delegations will engage in detailed discussions aimed at advancing a comprehensive peace and security agreement that substantively addresses the core concerns of both countries," the Dept. said in a statement. It added that "these talks aim to break decisively from the failed approach of the past two decades, which allowed terrorist groups to entrench and enrich themselves, undermine the authority of the Lebanese state, and endanger Israel’s northern border."
"Discussions will build a framework for lasting peace and security arrangements, the full restoration of Lebanese sovereignty throughout its territory, the delineation of borders, and creating concrete pathways for humanitarian relief and reconstruction in Lebanon," the statement said.
It added that both sides have committed to approaching these talks with "their national interests in mind," and that the United States will "work to reconcile those interests in a manner that delivers lasting security for Israel, and sovereignty and reconstruction for Lebanon.""The United States welcomes the commitment of both governments to this process and recognizes that comprehensive peace is contingent on the full restoration of Lebanese state authority and the complete disarmament of Hezbollah," the statement said. It added that "these discussions represent another important step toward ending decades of conflict and establishing a lasting peace between the two countries." "The United States will continue to support both countries as they seek to reach a breakthrough," the State Department said.

Aoun: Lebanon insists on ceasefire to end volatile situation in south
Naharnet/08 May ,2026
President Joseph Aoun on Friday told European Commissioner for Equality, Preparedness and Crisis Management, Hadja Lahbib, that "the support provided by the EU to Lebanon must be channeled into exerting pressure to compel Israel to cease fire and refrain from demolishing and bulldozing homes in the villages it occupies in the south, as well as from targeting paramedics, journalists and civil defense personnel." "Lebanon insists on ceasing fire and all military actions in order to launch negotiations that would end the current volatile situation in the south, paving the way for the redeployment of the army to the international border, the release of Lebanese prisoners, and the return of displaced persons to their towns and villages," Aoun said. He noted that the heavy human losses resulting from the Israeli attacks on Lebanon have increased the need for aid to displaced persons daily. "Therefore, Lebanon appeals to its sisterly and friendly nations to provide urgent humanitarian and development assistance," the president urged. He also said that "the Lebanese are united in the face of the current challenges, holding fast to their unity and standing together against any attempt to sow discord among them."

EU official calls for Hezbollah 'to cease attacks and be disarmed'
Agence France Presse/08 May ,2026
More than half of Lebanon's population depends on humanitarian aid, a European Union official said on Friday, as Israel continues its attacks on the country despite a ceasefire in the two-month-long war. "At present, more than three million people, meaning more than half of the population here in Lebanon, depend on humanitarian aid to survive," EU crisis management chief Hadja Lahbib told reporters after meeting President Joseph Aoun in Beirut. Lahbib said that since the start of the war on March 2 the 27-member bloc has provided 100 million euros in aid and sent six planes carrying humanitarian aid, with a seventh expected on Saturday. Israeli strikes in Lebanon have killed more than 2,700 people and displaced over one million since early March, according to authorities. The U.N. launched an emergency appeal in March for $308 million in humanitarian aid for Lebanon, but in two months it has raised just $126 million, according to UN agencies. Lahbib, who said that the ceasefire has opened "a narrow window of hope", called for Hezbollah "to cease its attacks and be disarmed" and said that "Israel must put an end to its bombardments". "For a ceasefire to lead to peace, courage is needed -- political courage to address the root causes of this conflict." Lahbib told reporters that Israel and Hezbollah are taking Lebanon "hostage." Israel and Lebanon are set to hold a third round of talks in Washington next week to end the war, despite Hezbollah's opposition to direct negotiations.

Israeli strikes kill 5 in south Lebanon including women, paramedic
Agence France Presse/08 May ,2026
An Israeli strike on Friday killed four people including two women in the southern Lebanon town of Toura, the health ministry said, as state media and AFP correspondents reported Israel was conducting widespread strikes. The Health Ministry in Lebanon said that an Israeli airstrike on the southern village of Toura near the port city of Tyre killed four people and wounded eight. Despite a truce in the war between Israel and Hezbollah, fighting has not stopped in south Lebanon, where an Israeli strike killed a civil defense rescuer earlier in the day.
Israeli strikes targeted Deir Ntar, al-Mansouri, Yohmor Shqif, Jmayjmeh, Zawtar, Sultanieh, Harees, Deir Qanoun, Shaitiyeh, Aitit, Deir Ames, Nmairieh, Bouyout al-Siyyed, Siddiqine, Houmine, Arab al-Jal and other villages and towns in south Lebanon. The strikes came hours after the Israeli army's Arabic-language spokesperson issued an evacuation warning to the residents of six villages in Tyre province, including Toura. Hezbollah for its part targeted Israeli troops and equipment in al-Bayyada, al-Khiam, Deir Seryan with attack drones, guided missiles, and artillery shells. In the early afternoon, Hezbollah fired a salvo of rockets toward northern Israel. The Israeli military said it shot down one rocket while the rest fell in open areas without inflicting casualties. The latest exchange between Israel and Hezbollah, despite a ceasefire that has been in place since April 17, came two days after the first Israeli airstrike on Beirut's southern suburbs since the ceasefire went into effect. The Israeli military said Thursday it had killed Ahmed Balout, who it identified as a commander in Hezbollah's elite Radwan Force, along with two other militants. There was no immediate comment from Hezbollah. Israel says it has killed more than 85 Hezbollah militants and struck 180 sites used by the group in the past week, without providing evidence. On Friday, President Joseph Aoun told a visiting delegation from the European Union that European countries should pressure Israel to commit to the ceasefire and abstain from "detonating and bulldozing " homes in villages under Israeli occupation. Aoun added in comments released by his office that Lebanon is committed to the ceasefire in order to start negotiations that will end the current conditions. Hadja Lahbib, European Commissioner for Equality, told reporters after the meeting with Aoun that Israel and Hezbollah are taking Lebanon "hostage.""Hezbollah should stop its attacks and disarm, and Israel should put limits to its airstrikes that target and have targeted humanitarian centers," Lahbib said.Aoun later met with Simon Karam, the head of the Lebanese delegation to talks with Israel in Washington. The meeting is expected to be held in Washington on Thursday and Friday next week. The latest war between Israel and Hezbollah began on March 2, when Hezbollah fired rockets into northern Israel, two days after the United States and Israel launched a war on its main backer, Iran. Israel has since carried out hundreds of airstrikes and launched a ground invasion of southern Lebanon, capturing dozens of towns and villages along the border.
Later, Lebanon and Israel held their first direct talks in more than three decades. The two countries have formally been in a state of war since the founding of the state of Israel in 1948.
A 10-day ceasefire declared in Washington went into effect on April 17. The ceasefire was later extended by three weeks.

Civil defense rescuer killed in Israeli strike on Rashaya-Kfarshouba road
Agence France Presse/08 May ,2026
An Israeli strike on south Lebanon killed a member of the civil defense, the rescue organization said Friday, a day after another strike killed a rescuer from the Hezbollah-affiliated Islamic Health Committee. In a statement, the civil defense said their rescuer was killed "as a result of an Israeli strike that targeted him" on the road between Rashaya and Kfarshouba, despite the truce in effect. World Health Organization chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said on Wednesday it had "verified 152 attacks on healthcare that resulted in 103 deaths and 241 injuries" in Lebanon since the war began on March 2. The Israeli army ordered Friday the residents of Nmayriyi, Tayrfelsay, Hallousieh, Hallousieh al-Fawqa, Abbasieh, Toura and Maarakeh in south Lebanon to evacuate ahead of imminent strikes. At least 12 people were killed Thursday, including two children and the paramedic, in a series of Israeli airstrikes. In separate statements, the ministry of health reported 11 people killed, two of them children, in strikes on three different villages in the Nabatieh district. Another strike in Marajayoun district killed the paramedic and wounded another.
On Friday, strikes targeted Deir Aames, Nmayriyi, Bouyout al-Siyyad and Jmayjmeh, and Israeli artillery shelled al-Mansouri, Majdalzoun and Bouyout al-Siyyad.

Sirens sound in northern Israel after shelling from Lebanon
Agence France Presse/08 May ,2026
Air raid sirens sounded in several cities in northern Israel on Friday after shelling from Lebanon, the Israeli military said, amid a fragile truce with Hezbollah. After the sirens were activated, "a number of launches were detected toward Israeli territory," an Israeli military statement said.
"The Israeli Air Force intercepted one launch, and the additional launches fell in open areas. No injuries were reported," the statement added, without providing further details.
The rockets activated sirens in Nahariya, Acre and Haifa.

EU reaffirms strong humanitarian commitment to Lebanon as official visits Beirut
Naharnet/08 May ,2026
Commissioner for Equality, Preparedness and Crisis Management, Hadja Lahbib, is in Lebanon this Friday and Saturday to welcome the seventh humanitarian flight landing in Beirut. This Humanitarian Air Bridge will deliver essential health and shelter items – from the EU's own stock and its partners – to the most vulnerable, reaffirming the European Union's solidarity with Lebanon and steadfast humanitarian support to the country. The Commissioner is meeting with President Joseph Aoun, Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, and Speaker of the Lebanese Parliament Nabih Berri, as well as humanitarian partners on the ground: United Nations agencies, local and international humanitarian actors, and women-led associations. The Commissioner is also visiting EU-funded projects, including shelters, a reception center for Syrian refugees, a children's hospital, a Palestinian refugee camp, and heavily affected areas. Since the escalation of hostilities in Lebanon in March 2026, the EU has mobilized substantial support. It has provided €100 million in humanitarian assistance to Lebanon in 2026, bringing total humanitarian assistance to the country to €1 billion since 2011. The EU Civil Protection Mechanism – which Lebanon has activated, as any country worldwide can do in times of crisis – has also facilitated the delivery of critical items from Member States, including Belgium, Germany, France, and Romania. Finally, the EU and its partners have delivered assistance via six EU Humanitarian Air Bridge flights to date. The emergency humanitarian aid provided so far has included food, medical kits, shelter materials, and clothing kits. Three million people –over half of the Lebanese population– were already in need of humanitarian assistance before the recent hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Thousands have since been killed or injured, over one million have been displaced, and nearly one in four are expected to face acute food insecurity between April and August this year. The EU remains fully in solidarity with the people in Lebanon and stands ready to deliver more humanitarian supplies, with additional operations scheduled in the coming weeks.

UNRWA shelters and assists displaced as hostilities persist despite truce
Naharnet/08 May ,2026
By 4 May, the Ministry of Social Affairs had documented the displacement of over 1.1 million individuals, including 124,231 people in 625 shelters. Active hostilities continued in several areas in the south of Lebanon, despite the ceasefire.
Following the three-week extension of the ceasefire announced on 23 April, gradual returns to Palestine Refugee camps were recorded. However, after renewed evacuation orders, some movements were halted and new displacements were observed. Monitoring returns remains challenging due to the fluid nature of population movements. A community kitchen at UNRWA’s Siblin shelter has been open since 1 April, in partnership with INITIATE-the Community Organization for Development and Empowerment, and co-funded by U.N. Women. The Women’s Programs Association has been operating a kitchen at the UNRWA Battir shelter since 3 April. In parallel, UNRWA said it is maintaining operational coordination with other partners including IOM, UNICEF, UNHCR, WFP, NRC, ICRC, COOPI, ACF, Terre des Hommes Italy, Save the Children, DanChurchAid, Basmeh & Zeitooneh, ANERA, Mousawat, Najdeh, Tadamon, Soufra (Makani), Taawon (Welfare Association), Nashet, and the Community-Based Rehabilitation Association (CBRA). Since the start of the emergency, UNRWA has provided 113,591 medical consultations at UNRWA operational clinics, including 11,561 for displaced persons and 102,030 for non-displaced persons. Another 1,896 consultations have been provided at the two UNRWA emergency shelters. No disease outbreaks in the shelters have been reported. Hospitalization for conflict-related injuries is covered by the Ministry of Public Health and the ICRC. The UNRWA Education Program Emergency Preparedness and Continuity Plan has been in effect since 10 March, aligned with the Lebanese Ministry of Education and Higher Education (MEHE). By 5 May, all 60 UNRWA schools were operational, with 38 offering in-person learning and 22 operating remotely. Security assessments are ongoing in schools affected by the conflict, which are currently operating remotely, to check for unexploded ordnance before reopening in person. Remote learning will continue until security risk management assessments are finalized and operations can safely resume. Remote learning focuses on core subjects (numeracy, literacy, sciences), while in-person schools deliver the full curriculum. UNRWA distributed essential learning materials to support both remote and in-person education. Guidance for remote teaching and learning has been developed to support teachers in delivering effective remote education.
During the reporting period, 14,291 students (7,431 girls and 6,860 boys) received at least one psychosocial support activity delivered by 40 school counsellors. Psychosocial support and recreational activities in the two emergency shelters are provided by Al-Jana in Siblin and Beit Atfal Assumoud in Battir. During the reporting period, Al-Jana reached 151 children with psychosocial support activities, while Beit Atfal Assumoud provided psychosocial support activities to 122 children. By 5 May, a total of 483 children had registered in UNRWA’s shelters (219 boys and 264 girls). Since the onset of the emergency, UNRWA Social Work teams have provided psychosocial support and awareness raising activities to 1,276 internally displaced persons (IDPs), including 973 females and 303 males. By 5 May, 529 displaced persons were reached through Explosive Ordnance Risk Education awareness sessions at Siblin emergency shelter. During the reporting period, UNRWA’s Social Work teams in Battir and Siblin shelters have provided psychosocial support, psychosocial first aid, family and individual interventions, and case management to 1,921 displaced persons (1,285 females and 636 males). These activities aim to reduce community tensions and strengthen emotional well-being and coping capacities. UNRWA’s Social Work teams provided awareness raising sessions for 331 displaced persons on hygiene promotion, child protection, rights and duties within shelters, child safety, and preventing drug use. Additionally, 114 displaced persons in the shelters received psychological first aid to address acute psychosocial distress. UNRWA distributed 205 ready-to-eat kits, 7,678 hot meals, 7,195 cold meals and 1,850 bread packs through partners, including WFP, Anera, the SHEILD Association, Basmeh & Zeitooneh, Siblin Municipality, the Women’s Programs Association, and the local organization Nashet.

Recent US-Iran violence threatens Lebanon's shaky ceasefire
Agence France Presse/08 May ,2026
Any agreement between the United States and Iran can also help lower tensions in Lebanon, where a separate truce was under renewed strain after an Israeli strike on southern Beirut killed a commander from militant group Hezbollah on Wednesday. But recent violence threatens to unravel the fragile truce in effect since April 8 that brought an end to weeks of U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran. The U.S. military said Thursday it carried out strikes on Iranian military targets in response, although Tehran charged that it was Washington that had initiated the exchange of fire.
Asked in Washington Thursday if the Iran ceasefire was still on, Trump said: "Yeah, it is. They trifled with us today. We blew them away. They trifled. I call that a trifle." Lebanon was drawn into the Middle East war when Hezbollah fired rockets at Israel in retaliation for the killing of Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and for months of Israeli violations of a ceasefire reached in November 2024. A U.S. State Department official confirmed Thursday that new Israel-Lebanon talks would take place on May 14 and 15. It will be the third meeting in recent months between the two countries, which have technically been at war for decades and have no diplomatic relations. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Tuesday that a peace deal between the two sides was "eminently achievable," insisting Hezbollah was the sticking point, rather than any issue between the two governments. A ceasefire between the two countries, and including Hezbollah, was extended after the last round of talks in Washington, but Israel has kept up its strikes on the group, which has claimed attacks of its own on Israeli forces occupying parts of Lebanon's south. Lebanon's health ministry reported at least 12 people killed in a series of Israeli airstrikes on Thursday.

More than half of Lebanon population depends on aid: EU official

AFP/08 May ,2026
More than half of Lebanon’s population depends on humanitarian aid, a European Union official said on Friday, as Israel continues its attacks on the country despite a ceasefire in the two-month-long war with militant group Hezbollah. “At present, more than three million people, meaning more than half of the population here in Lebanon, depend on humanitarian aid to survive,” EU crisis management chief Hadja Lahbib told reporters after meeting Lebanese President Joseph Aoun in Beirut. Lahbib said that since the start of the war on March 2 the 27-member bloc has provided 100 million euros in aid and sent six planes carrying humanitarian aid, with a seventh expected on Saturday. Israeli strikes in Lebanon have killed more than 2,700 people and displaced over one million since early March, according to authorities. The UN launched an emergency appeal in March for $308 million in humanitarian aid for Lebanon, but in two months it has raised just $126 million, according to UN agencies. Lahbib, who said that the ceasefire has opened “a narrow window of hope,” called for Hezbollah “to cease its attacks and be disarmed” and said that “Israel must put an end to its bombardments.” “For a ceasefire to lead to peace, courage is needed – political courage to address the root causes of this conflict.”Israel and Lebanon are set to hold a third round of talks in Washington next week to end the war, despite Hezbollah’s opposition to direct negotiations.

Lebanese President Meets Delegation Chief ahead of Direct Israel Talks
Asharq Al Awsat/8 May 2026
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun on Friday met with veteran diplomat Simon Karam, the head of the delegation headed to Washington for planned talks with Israel next week. Lebanon and Israel's US ambassadors had previously met twice in Washington over the past weeks, in an attempt to end the war that started when Hezbollah drew Lebanon into the Middle East conflict on March 2. Foreign Minister Youssef Raggi said in a statement Friday that Lebanon's goals from the negotiations were "consolidating the ceasefire, securing Israel's withdrawal from occupied Lebanese territory, and restoring the state's full sovereignty over its national territory".Despite a truce that has been in place since April 17, Israel has repeatedly bombed Lebanon, mostly the country's south, and retained control over border areas. In a statement from the presidency, Aoun said he and Karam discussed "preparations for the meeting scheduled for next Thursday in Washington between the Lebanese, American and Israeli delegations". Aoun provided Karam with "directives outlining Lebanon's firm positions regarding the negotiations", the statement added. A Lebanese official who requested anonymity told AFP that Karam "will head to Washington soon" to lead the Lebanese delegation. The Lebanese ambassador to the US, the deputy chief of mission and a military representative will also be part of the delegation, the official added. The ambassador-level meeting on April 14 was the first of its kind in decades, as the two countries have officially been at war since 1948. Following the first round of talks, US President Donald Trump announced a 10-day ceasefire, with a three-week extension announced after the second round. Trump also said he expected Aoun and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to meet jointly with him at the White House "over the next couple of weeks". But Aoun said on Monday that "we must first reach a security agreement and stop the Israeli attacks on us before we raise the issue of a meeting between us".US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, at a news conference on Tuesday, said "there's no problem between the Lebanese government and the Israeli government" and that Hezbollah was the issue.
"By and large, I think a peace deal between Lebanon and Israel is eminently achievable and should be," Rubio said. Hezbollah is strongly opposed to the direct talks, calling them a "sin" and urging Beirut to withdraw from them. Israeli strikes have killed more than 2,700 in Lebanon since March 2, including dozens since the ceasefire was announced.

Hezbollah Says Launched Missiles at Military Base in North Israel
Asharq Al Awsat/May 08/2026
Hezbollah launched missiles at a military base in Israel on Friday in response to Israeli attacks that killed a top commander, while Lebanese authorities reported five people including a rescuer killed in fresh Israeli strikes. In a statement, the group said the missiles targeted a base south of the Israeli city of Nahariya "in response to the Israeli enemy's violation of the ceasefire, the targeting of Beirut's southern suburbs and the attacks that affected villages and civilians in southern Lebanon". Air raid sirens had sounded earlier in several cities in northern Israel, according to the Israeli military. The military said it "intercepted one launch, and the additional launches fell in open areas", adding that no injuries were reported. The Lebanese health ministry meanwhile said in a statement that "the Israeli enemy's raid on the town of Toura" in the southern Tyre district killed four people, including two women, and wounded eight others in a preliminary toll. Lebanon's civil defense said earlier that one of its members was killed in an Israeli attack on the south. Despite a truce in the war between Israel and Hezbollah in place since April 17, fighting has not stopped in south Lebanon. The terms of the ceasefire announced by the US state department on April 16 allow Israel to act against "planned, imminent or ongoing attacks" by Hezbollah. The Israeli military had issued evacuation warnings for seven southern Lebanese towns, including Toura. Lebanon's state-run National News Agency reported a series of strikes across the south on Friday. Hezbollah also claimed responsibility for several attacks on Israeli troops in southern Lebanon.
Upcoming talks -
Israel struck Beirut's southern suburbs on Wednesday, the first attack on the Hezbollah stronghold in a month. The Israeli military said it targeted the commander of Hezbollah's elite Radwan Force.  Hezbollah has not yet announced a commander's death, but a source close to the group confirmed the killing to AFP the killing of Malek Ballout The latest attacks came as Lebanon and Israel, officially at war since 1948, were set to hold direct negotiations in Washington next week. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun met with delegation chief Simon Karam on Friday ahead of his departure to the US, giving him "directives outlining Lebanon's firm positions regarding the negotiations". Lebanon and Israel's US ambassadors had previously met twice in Washington over the past weeks, in an attempt to end the war that started when Hezbollah drew Lebanon into the Middle East conflict on March 2. Hezbollah is strongly opposed to the direct talks, calling them a "sin" and urging Beirut to withdraw from them. Israeli strikes have killed more than 2,750 people in Lebanon since March 2, including dozens since the ceasefire was announced.
EU crisis management chief Hadja Lahbib told reporters in Beirut that since the start of the war on March 2, the 27-member bloc has provided 100 million euros in aid and sent six planes carrying humanitarian aid, with a seventh expected on Saturday.

US Aims to Consolidate Lebanon-Israel Ceasefire Before Negotiations

Beirut: Asharq Al Awsat/May 08/2026
A Lebanese official source told Asharq Al-Awsat there were “serious US efforts” to secure the ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel before the launch of direct negotiations between the two countries under US sponsorship next Thursday. The source said that if the efforts fail, Lebanon will take part in the meetings but “will refuse to discuss any further details before the ceasefire is secured.” The source said President Joseph Aoun was satisfied with the progress of the negotiation efforts and with Lebanon’s preparations for the talks. The Lebanese military would be represented in the negotiations by Oliver Hakme, the military attaché at the Lebanese embassy in Washington, he added. The source said the negotiations would be “a continuation of the two rounds of talks held in Naqoura on the Lebanese border, headed by Ambassador Simon Karam for the Lebanese delegation, with the positive addition of a higher level of US representation in these negotiations.”The first meeting would focus on “general discussions, with no specific agenda,” continued the source, reiterating Lebanon’s position that “there will be no progress on any other point before the ceasefire is secured.”Aoun was in “full and close” coordination with Prime Minister Nawaf Salam on the negotiations, he added. Aoun was also satisfied with parliament Speaker Nabih Berri’s recent positions on the strength of his relationship with the president, who agrees with him that any agreement needs guarantees because Israel is known for breaking its commitments. Separately, an official statement said Aoun received former ambassador Simon Karam, the head of the Lebanese delegation to the Lebanese-Israeli negotiations, and gave him his instructions before he traveled to Washington. Aoun also received a phone call from British National Security Adviser Jonathan Powell, during which they discussed the situation in Lebanon and the region in light of recent developments and continued Israeli attacks on Lebanon. Aoun asked Powell to press Israel to abide by the ceasefire and stop demolition and bulldozing work in the southern villages and towns it occupies. Aoun met with EU Commissioner for Equality, Preparedness and Crisis Management Hadja Lahbib. He told her that support provided by EU states to Lebanon should be directed toward pressure to force Israel to abide by the ceasefire, refrain from blowing up and bulldozing homes in villages in the south, and stop targeting paramedics, journalists and civil defense workers. Aoun said Lebanon was committed to a ceasefire and to ending all military action as a starting point for negotiations that would end the unstable situation in the south, paving the way for the army to redeploy up to the international border, for Lebanese prisoners to be released, and for displaced people to return to their towns and villages.
Aoun briefed Lahbib on the large human losses caused by Israeli attacks on Lebanon, the rise in the number of displaced people to about one million, and the severe material damage to homes, property and crops. Meanwhile, PM Salam received Army Commander General Rodolphe Haykal. They discussed the situation in the south, efforts to secure the ceasefire, and the security situation in Beirut.

Who Are the Radwan Commanders Israel Has Killed in Lebanon?
Beirut: Asharq Al Awsat/8 May 2026
Israel’s announcement that it had killed Ahmad Ghaleb Ballout in a strike targeting the Haret Hreik area of Beirut’s southern suburbs on Wednesday renewed focus on the series of assassinations targeting commanders of Hezbollah’s Radwan Force since the outbreak of the Gaza war.
The strikes seem to be a concentrated campaign aimed at weakening the leadership structure of the group’s elite unit. Since the early months of the confrontation, the Radwan Force has become a primary target of Israeli strikes, both in south Lebanon and Beirut’s southern suburbs, as Israel pursued field and military commanders responsible for offensive operations and oversight of drone, assault and combined operations units. Israeli army spokeswoman Ella Waweya said the military “carried out a strike on Wednesday and eliminated Ahmad Ghaleb Ballout, a commander in the Radwan Force, Hezbollah’s elite commando unit, in Beirut’s southern suburbs.”According to the Israeli account, Ballout held several positions within the Radwan Force over the years, most notably operations commander, where he was responsible for the unit’s “combat readiness and mobilization against the Israeli army.” Waweya said Ballout also played a role in “efforts to restore the capabilities of the Radwan Force,” particularly what Israel refers to as the “plan to occupy the Galilee,” long viewed by Israel’s military establishment as one of the main threats posed by Hezbollah’s elite unit. Over recent months, details have gradually emerged about commanders who played central roles within the force before becoming direct targets in the ongoing assassination campaign.
Wissam al-Tawil: The first major target
Wissam Hassan al-Tawil was the first prominent Radwan commander whose killing was announced by Israel after the start of the confrontation linked to Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack on Israel. Born in 1970 in Tyre, he joined Hezbollah at a young age and rose through the group’s military ranks. According to the Israeli announcement, Tawil “was known as one of the overseers of the external operations and military manufacturing portfolio” and was also a member of Hezbollah’s central Shura Council, making him one of the influential military figures within the organization.
On Jan. 8, 2024, an Israeli drone targeted the vehicle carrying him in the southern town of Khirbet Selm, in what marked the beginning of a new phase in the targeting of Radwan commanders.
Mohammad Nasser: Commander of the western sector
Mohammad Nasser emerged as one of the leading commanders of the Aziz Unit, part of the Radwan Force and responsible for the western sector of the southern front. Born in 1965 in the southern town of Haddatha, he joined Hezbollah in 1986 and participated in operations against the Israeli army during the occupation period. His military role later expanded to include fighting alongside Syrian government forces between 2011 and 2016. After the killing of commander Hassan Mohammad al-Hajj in Syria in 2015, Nasser took command of the Aziz Unit and oversaw operations involving drones, rockets and combined attacks during Hezbollah’s campaign of support for Hamas. In July 2024, Israel announced it had killed him in a strike targeting his vehicle in Tyre.
Ibrahim Aqil and Ahmad Wahbi: Targeting the most experienced circle
While the assassination of field commanders placed operational pressure on the Radwan Force, targeting leaders involved in planning and training appeared even more sensitive for Hezbollah, as reflected in the killings of Ibrahim Aqil and Ahmad Wahbi.
Aqil, who served as commander of the Radwan Force and was among the founding figures of Hezbollah’s military wing, joined the group in the 1980s before becoming one of its leading military commanders. His name was linked to sensitive security and military files. The United States accuses him of involvement in the 1983 bombing of the US Embassy in Beirut and the attack on the US Marine barracks the same year. Within Hezbollah, he was a member of the Jihad Council and played a major role in developing the Radwan Force’s military capabilities. He also helped oversee operations in Syria after Hezbollah became involved in the conflict there. On Sept. 20, 2024, Israel killed him in an airstrike targeting a meeting of Radwan Force commanders that he was chairing in the Jamous area of Beirut’s southern suburbs. Several senior commanders in the unit were also killed in the strike. Ahmad Wahbi: Architect of training and ambushes. Ahmad Wahbi was regarded as one of the key architects behind the training of Radwan Force fighters. He joined Hezbollah shortly after its founding and took part in operations against the Israeli occupation before being captured by Israel in 1984.His name later emerged as one of those involved in the 1997 Ansariya ambush targeting Israel’s Shayetet 13 naval commando unit, before he assumed responsibilities related to central training within Hezbollah. According to the Israeli military, Wahbi had overseen training for the Radwan Force since 2012 and played a pivotal role in developing its manpower and military capabilities. He also assumed additional responsibilities after the killing of Wissam al-Tawil.
In the same strike that killed Ibrahim Aqil in September 2024, Wahbi was killed alongside several Radwan commanders, in what was described as one of the heaviest blows suffered by the force since its establishment.

Beirut's Tents

Samir Atallah/Asharq Al Awsat/8 May 2026
For a long time, Lebanon was accused of being the pampered country in the midst of an Arab world defined by struggle and sacrifice. At best, it was treated as a nation of questionable belonging and suspect intentions.
It therefore had to be stripped of its Arab identity, its rights, and its sovereignty, and placed at the disposal of a “pure” Arab proxy that neither toyed with dignity nor betrayed the nation. Thus, for years, the Palestine Liberation Organization managed Lebanon’s internal affairs. It was decided that “the road to Palestine” would pass through Oyoun el-Siman and other ski resorts. Then Syria came to rule Lebanon, accused the Palestinian leadership of treachery, and decided to govern both it and Lebanon together. To that end, it spread its army across the country. And as proof of pan-Arab “transparency,” the Lebanese army was expected to salute its Syrian master while waiting for its own nationalist consciousness to mature. The Iranian phase brought with it the rule of the spiritual elite. Resistance MP Hajj Mohammad Raad stood denouncing the state as nothing more than a land of cabarets, debauchery, and the like. Under these successive orders, there also had to be local “pure” elements. The ever-watchful eye therefore turned to squads and battalions of volunteers who moved alongside the shifting tides and shifting loyalties, distributing rewards to those deemed deserving. Thus dawned yet another era and another glory. If the Palestinians were agents, and the Syrians who followed them were agents as well, then what about the men of the Revolutionary Guard?
No sooner had this transparent order begun imposing its agenda than Lebanon filled with tent dwellers and people stripped of national belonging. The Lebanese themselves became the inhabitants of scorched and barren land. Southerners were left sleeping on sidewalks or, if fortunate, in parks, passageways, or the “refugee playgrounds” that outside Lebanon would simply be sports fields and youth gathering places. Israel’s defense minister said that Lebanon under occupation would be governed like Gaza. Thank you for this noble equality. There have been many precedents of this kind, indeed of every kind: that the Lebanese person should enjoy a ceasefire, rise each day to the sight of rubble, calmly rub his eyes, and groan: where is the next road to Palestine? Or to Jerusalem? Or whoever gets there first.

Hezbollah' and the Monopoly on Narrative

Mustafa Fahs/Asharq Al Awsat/8 May 2026
“Hezbollah” is struggling to impose a single narrative on the southern massacre, or a single interpretation of it, and views any dissenting opinion as “treason” or a “stabbing in the back of the sacrifices.” Its goal is to prevent its own community, which carried it for years, from saying what it truly feels. But the people of the South have another narrative. The life of southern farmer Fadia al-Hanawi was harsh, like the hardship of growing tobacco in her village of Aitaroun. The village was leveled to the ground, along with her home, which she built stone by stone, season after season, through planting the seedlings, harvesting them, and threading them together, as those seedlings traced the contours of southern life in all its sweetness and bitterness. Fadia is me, him, her, you, and us. Those standing at the threshold of displacement, or fleeing from one displacement to another. She is the southern woman whom they want silenced so as not to “weaken” the resolve of the group. She is the accused, like so many brave men and women who decided to break from the sacred script of the collective and instead sanctify their own small things: their homes, their photographs, their memories, and to speak openly of their grief. She is Zainab Saad, surrounded by the tongues of ordinary people enlisted in a partisan theology, threatened with isolation or expulsion as punishment for what she said publicly.
And she is like the late Abu Ali Faqih, who died atop the rubble of his home from grief and anguish, defying the group’s slogan that death must be a source of happiness, and that anyone who dies without such happiness is accused of deviation, abandonment, and sometimes treason.
For in the totalitarian mind, whether Stalinist or doctrinaire, the individual is stripped of his particularity, his memory, and his future. His grief, joy, life, death, home, and labor become the property of the collective, the organization, or the regime. Grief ceases to be a right, and individual survival ceases to be a natural right as well. What is demanded is that a person feel as the group wants him to feel, remain silent when it decides he must remain silent, and narrate his tragedy only in the language permitted by the authority, the “party,” or the sect, because they alone monopolize the narrative.
The narrative that the “Party” seeks to monopolize is this: forcing people to see death, war, and destruction as it sees them; besieging the truth and preventing it from being told; killing it within the individual, the community, and the environment; stripping human beings of their capacity to defend themselves before the theology of politics and the “Party,” where the individual is completely reduced and transformed into a wholly directed and controlled being. This is the apex of systematic repression, overt ideology, domination of consciousness, and the theft of identity and freedom. In monopolizing “the final narrative,” “Hezbollah” seeks to silence voices that criticize its deadly adventures. It diminishes the value of what people lose in exchange for slogans of victory, pride, and dignity, and it does not hesitate to punish those who diverge from its narrative. The punishment here is not merely a reaction; it is a means of redefining those who oppose the “Party,” the group, or the sect, portraying them as a burden that must be isolated because they have fallen outside the “consensus,” and depicting them as a transient aberration.
It is a social, political, and security siege that pressures dissenters to the point where expression itself becomes so costly that enforced silence takes hold, and individuals come to realize that defending themselves changes nothing within a system that has already predetermined their place. It is the moment of “post-justice,” when oppression no longer even requires justification. As for the other narrative, it is difficult to monopolize, because it is impossible to confiscate death, grief, loss, and pain, or to impose a single narrative upon them. Here Mahmoud Darwish captures the condition of publicly proclaimed southern death when he writes:
“Death, give me time to arrange my funeral
Give me time in this fleeting new spring
I was born in spring to keep the orators from endlessly speaking
about this heartbreaking country, about the immortality
of fig and olive trees in the face of time and its armies.”

Lebanon and the Regional Settlement: Two Decisive Tests

Nabil Bou Monsef/An-Nahar/May 08/2026
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2026/05/154304/
(Translated from Arabic by Web translation apps)
The “Shiite Duo” in Lebanon persists in demonstrating an “isolationist” reality they have accepted for themselves amidst the fallout of the war Hezbollah dragged Lebanon into. They do so through a blatant defiance of the will of a described Lebanese majority, which has aligned with a decisive American decision to decouple the Lebanese-Israeli negotiations from the American-Iranian negotiations. This defiance of the Lebanese majority’s will is not limited to pushing forward with shedding Iran’s lethal influence over the Shiite community—and through it, the hijacking of the state’s decision-making by the remnants of the Iranian regime. Rather, Speaker Nabih Berri himself, like his partner and more, has manufactured a boycott crisis and engaged in a public dispute with the President. He reminds the Lebanese public daily that his alternative to the negotiating Lebanese state is Abbas Araghchi, with whom he maintains a daily open line for strategic coordination.
Bkerke spoke frankly in a statement reminiscent of the path established by the historic independence patriarch, Mar Nasrallah Boutros Sfeir. It spoke of tested alternatives that established Israeli occupations of Lebanon instead of liberating it, while offering strong support for the State’s choice to negotiate. Nevertheless, the “Shiite Duo” is fueling a crisis that Tehran clearly intends to explode in Lebanon, timed with the ongoing steps to launch direct Lebanese negotiations with Israel. This comes at a dangerous juncture coinciding with the creeping settlement project between Tehran and the U.S. administration. Whether this settlement passes in the coming days or fails, Lebanon will face two of the most burdensome and heavy tests among a set of interconnected challenges on its negotiating path. These involve completely severing the lethal link between its negotiating track and Iranian subservience, and proving the Lebanese capacity to protect the independence of its negotiating commitments.
In fact, these two tests—despite the vast minefield Lebanon faces regarding security, borders, and “peace” files intended to lead to an agreement ending the series of catastrophic wars with Israel—appear to be the most dangerous detonator. They are linked to the “Caesarean section” process of separating the independence of the Lebanese track from the friction of U.S.-Iranian negotiations. Unless the Lebanese-American intersection is complete and final in preventing Iran from exploiting the stance of its “Shiite Duo” in Lebanon, the country will be exposed to what it experienced with the May 17, 1983 agreement. One of the main factors that led to that agreement’s collapse at the hands of an alliance of international, regional, and local forces was that the United States itself did not provide decisive protection, leaving Lebanon to struggle with its dark fate after the agreement fell.
While current circumstances do not allow for a direct comparison between the emerging negotiating experience and that of the 1980s, one grave matter remains unchanged: a Lebanese faction still installs itself as a bridge and a tool of influence for regional interests that are completely contrary to Lebanon’s supreme interests and the will of the majority. If they succeed in thwarting the State’s option, the entire State will collapse. This collapse will recoil upon America’s path with Iran, as it would constitute the failure of one of the most important American conditions: ending support for Iran’s proxies and arms in the region. Furthermore, Lebanon would lose its last bet on severing the lethal link between its fate and the Iranian regime. There are many challenges facing the official Lebanese side, supported by a Lebanese majority in its negotiating choice, but the most important task is seizing a rare opportunity where the interests of the smallest of states intersect with the largest and most powerful.

The Final Lebanon War?

David Daoud & Jonathan Schanzer/The Dispatch/May 08/2026
https://thedispatch.com/article/israel-hezbollah-lebanon-security-zone/
A security zone in southern Lebanon could help Israel degrade Hezbollah faster than it can recover.Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Tuesday that peace between Israel and Lebanon is “imminently achievable”—if Beirut can finally confront Hezbollah. But even as Washington presses the two governments toward unprecedented security understandings, Israel and Hezbollah continue to trade fire in southern Lebanon.
The ceasefire declared by President Donald Trump on April 16, and then extended on April 23, now hangs in the balance.
For the governments of Israel and Lebanon, the uptick in violence comes at a delicate time. The ambassadors from both nations have met twice now in Washington in a bid to reach new security understandings—but Hezbollah remains powerful enough to stymie these efforts.
The Israelis warned Hezbollah against joining the war amid combined U.S.-Israeli operations in Iran on February 28. But in early March, the Iranian-backed group fired five rockets into northern Israel. The Israelis reacted with predictable ferocity, and the conflict between Israel and Iran’s most powerful proxy ignited anew.
In what is now commonly referred to as the “October 8 mindset” in Israel (referring to the oft-repeated vow that lingering threats will no longer be tolerated), Israeli defense officials made it clear they were playing for keeps. The Israelis launched their heaviest bombardments to date, especially in Beirut, on April 8. This would not be yet another round of “mowing the lawn” with the Lebanon-based terror group.
Iran saw this campaign for what it was: Israel preparing to deal Hezbollah potentially irreversible blows, including through a deeper ground incursion into south Lebanon. Seeking to save its most important proxy, Tehran tied the continuation of its ceasefire with the United States to de-escalation in Lebanon. The Iranian regime believed that the ceasefire was important enough to Donald Trump that its proxy might get a reprieve.
The Lebanese government, realizing its sovereignty was at stake, countered, refusing to allow the regime to speak for its national interests. Washington readily obliged Beirut’s initiative, sponsoring rare trilateral talks between the Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors in Washington.
That was the good news. The bad news was that Lebanon came to the table seeking to leverage American pressure on Israel to return to the same status quo ante of inaction that has repeatedly ensured Hezbollah’s survival. Beirut requested a ceasefire—just as the Iranian regime did. While this was designed to buy time for negotiations, it would also buy time for Hezbollah.
After decades of wars that ended in containment, the Israeli desire to destroy the terror group now appears genuine. On October 8, 2023, when the ground in southern Israel was still soaked with the blood of 1,200 Hamas victims, Hezbollah attacked Israel and sparked what would become a yearlong war of attrition. With the shock of the Hamas attack still fresh, Israel displayed uncharacteristic reticence. It was only in mid-September 2024, nearly a year later, that the Israelis dropped the gloves: Its first blow, the explosive beeper operation, killed or maimed hundreds of Hezbollah fighters. The Israelis then eliminated Hezbollah’s senior-most political and military figures, including Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah; took out a significant part of the group’s arsenal; and launched a limited ground incursion. Throughout, however, their goals remained limited to pushing Hezbollah back far enough from the frontier for residents of northern Israel to return home.
A tenuous ceasefire followed. The Israelis kept Hezbollah on its back foot by striking its military assets once or twice per day, but over the last 17 months, the group was nevertheless able to reconstitute. Now Israel is seeking to continuously degrade Hezbollah until either the organization collapses or Lebanon is finally able, or willing, to disarm it.
When the U.S.-brokered ceasefire took effect in November 2024, Israelis hoped that Beirut would step up and begin dismantling the terror group. After all, the very existence of a well-armed and well-trained militia within the country is a challenge to Lebanese sovereignty. But Lebanon’s government remains weak, and Lebanese society is notoriously fractured along sectarian lines. This has left Beirut and the Lebanese Armed Forces fearful of a civil war, or worse, losing one.
Neither fear is unfounded. Hezbollah retains enough of its arsenal (roughly 20 percent of its previous arsenal of 150,000 projectiles, plus loads of light arms, per Israeli estimates) to make forcible disarmament militarily daunting. Lebanese Shiites, who make up roughly one-third of the population, remained broadly supportive of Hezbollah, allowing the group to continue threatening Lebanon with internecine conflict. Beirut tried to convince the group to voluntarily surrender its arsenal. Hezbollah, not surprisingly, refused. And the Shiites of the country are not complaining.
It is too soon to determine whether the renewed war, and the concurrent diplomacy, has changed these conditions enough to break Lebanon’s barrier of fear. Ceasefire or not, diplomacy or not, the Israelis are still eyeing a major military operation.
While fears of a massive military operation remain, the Israelis are signaling more modest goals. The Israeli brass don’t seem interested in occupying Lebanese territory. Southern Lebanon is the immediate threat to Israeli security because of the short-range munitions that threaten Israeli villages on the border. Yet the organization’s infrastructure extends well beyond it: Its political and operational nerve center sits in Beirut’s southern suburbs, and it maintains military assets and training sites in the northermost reaches of the Beqaa Valley, which sits astride the Syrian border.
Israel simply lacks the manpower to conduct large-scale military operations across the entirety of this terrain. And the soldiers it does have are already weary from more than two and a half years of fighting in Gaza.
This reality helps explain why Israeli war planners appear to be gravitating toward an intermediate option of seizing southern Lebanese territory up to the Litani River, with plans to then launch large-scale air operations to degrade the longer-distance weapons held by the group in territories farther north.
Israel has already shaped the battlefield for such an incursion. Evacuation warnings have pushed hundreds of thousands of Lebanese civilians out of southern Lebanon. Israel has slowly but steadily expanded its footprint in this area, and is on the cusp of seizing Bint Jbeil—the so-called “capital of the resistance.” Meanwhile, it has struck bridges and other connective infrastructure to complicate Hezbollah’s efforts to move in reinforcements and materiel from positions farther north.
Modest diplomatic progress notwithstanding, IDF ground troops remain tasked with holding this area and protecting the border communities until Hezbollah’s presence in the area is dismantled. After that, IDF planning suggests the Israeli army will hold this area as a “kill zone” in southern Lebanon (similar to the territory it holds alongside Hamas-controlled territory in Gaza) while continuing to relentlessly target the dangerous weapons Hezbollah has hidden farther north.
Critics have warned that this is a repeat of a failed strategy adopted by the Israelis at the end of the 20th century. But this revived security zone need not reproduce the failures of its 1985-2000 precursor, when Israel first engaged Hezbollah.
The very idea of a southern Lebanese security zone emerged from the wreckage of Israel’s 1982 invasion of Lebanon, initially aimed at clearing the Palestine Liberation Organization from south Lebanon—but which reached Beirut and ultimately proved unpopular with many Israelis. Hezbollah’s intervening rise precluded a complete Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon, while Israeli public opinion prevented the pursuit of a decisive victory over the nascent group. The IDF was left in military limbo. Israeli troops fought the group in a series of operations and limited engagements that, individually and collectively, failed to reach Israeli aims. The Israeli population lost patience. This ultimately led to Israel’s unilateral withdrawal in 2000, enabling Hezbollah to claim it had forcibly ejected the IDF from southern Lebanon and, thus, victory.
Looking back, there were several clear lessons for Israel. The IDF’s doctrinal advantages lie in mobility, initiative, and overwhelming combined-arms maneuvers. Yet the constraining weight of public opinion pushed the army into static defense in southern Lebanon. Israeli troops hunkered down in outposts that Hezbollah could harass at will. Lebanese proxies, like the South Lebanon Army, were of little help. If anything, they became a liability, as their forces were both unprofessional and cruel.
The new southern security zone’s purpose, by contrast, should not be to act as a mere buffer zone. Instead, it should enable the IDF to press its advantages and to facilitate direct, sustained, and offensive pressure by the IDF deep into Hezbollah’s strongholds.
These operations will doubtlessly be costly. The longer Israeli soldiers are deployed in Lebanon, the higher the likelihood of mounting casualties. However, in the aftermath of the October 7 attacks and the multifront war now underway against the Islamic Republic of Iran and its proxies, Israelis today are likely to view prolonged operations against the group, and even the loss of soldiers, as necessary. Recent polling shows most Israelis opposed halting operations against Hezbollah, with these sentiments particularly pronounced among the country’s northerners.
There is, to be sure, an element of resignation to this strategy. Reviving a security zone amounts to an admission that Lebanon will remain either unwilling or unable to disarm Hezbollah on its own for the foreseeable future. It is also an admission that there is no other way to gain a handle on the northern front without exposing IDF forces to direct and sustained contact against a Hezbollah that remains determined to rearm and continue fighting.
But if Israel uses a zone in Lebanon’s south not as an end in itself, but as part of a strategy to degrade Hezbollah faster than it can recover, the cumulative effect could be lethal for Hezbollah. To the extent that the Lebanese government steps up, perhaps as a result of the ongoing negotiations in Washington, the IDF can reduce its operations in tandem and consider transferring control of pacified areas of the revived security zone to the Lebanese Armed Forces. Peace would not emerge overnight, but a security zone could yield durable quiet along the frontier and non-belligerency between Israel and Lebanon. Over time, the absence of war and mutual bloodletting resulting from quieter borders may facilitate ongoing Israeli-Lebanese talks and eventually make normalization a possibility.
*David DaoudDavid Daoud is a senior fellow at Foundation for Defense of Democracies

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on 08-09 May/2026
Adviser to Iran Supreme Leader Compares Control of Hormuz to ‘Atomic Bomb’
EPA/8 May 2026
An adviser to Iran's supreme leader compared control over the Strait of Hormuz to having an "atomic bomb" on Friday, and vowed not to relinquish it. Adviser Mohammad Mokhber said Iran had long "neglected" its privileged position along the strait, a vital conduit for oil and gas shipments that Tehran shut early in the Middle East war, throwing markets into turmoil and stranding hundreds of vessels. "The Strait of Hormuz represents an opportunity as precious as an atomic bomb," he said in a video published by the Mehr news agency. "Indeed, having in one's hands a position that allows you to influence the global economy with a single decision is a major opportunity."Pledging not to "forfeit the gains of this war", he went on to say Iran would "change the (legal) regime of this strait", through international law if possible, and unilaterally if not. Mokhber did not specifically mention charging vessels to use the waterway, but the shipping journal Lloyd's List reported on Friday that Iran had created an authority to approve transit through the strait and to collect tolls. Iranian officials have previously mentioned implementing such a system, and a senior parliamentarian said in April that Tehran had received its first toll revenue from the strait. The United States, whose joint attacks with Israel on the country sparked the war in the Middle East, has called tolling in the Hormuz unacceptable, as has the UN's maritime agency. The strait has become a major bargaining chip in negotiations to end the war, with Iran currently weighing a US proposal to extend the current truce in the Gulf to allow talks on a final settlement of the conflict.

Rubio says US expecting Iran response Friday
Associated Press/08 May ,2026
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Friday slammed Iranian efforts to control the Strait of Hormuz, following a report that Tehran has created an authority to approve transit through the vital waterway. "Iran now claims that they own, that they have a right to control, an international waterway... That's an unacceptable thing that they're trying to normalise," Rubio told reporters during a visit to Rome. Rubio fielded questions at the end of a two-day fence-mending visit to Rome and the Vatican after sharp disagreements over the U.S.-Israeli war in Iran and President Donald Trump’s criticisms of Pope Leo XIV. He was asked about reports from a shipping data company that said Iran has created a government agency to vet and tax vessels seeking passage through the strait. “Is the world going to accept that Iran now controls an international waterway?” Rubio asked. “What is the world prepared to do about it?”He also warned Tehran against attacking American maritime assets in the region. The U.S. said it thwarted attacks on three Navy ships in the Strait of Hormuz. “The red line is clear. They threaten Americans, they are going to be blown up,” he said. Rubio said the U.S. is anticipating a response from Iran on the ongoing diplomatic discussions sometime later Friday. “We should know something today,” Rubio, who doubles as the White House national security adviser, told reporters. He added: “I hope it’s a serious offer. I really do.”He said President Donald Trump has yet to decide how to respond to some allies denying the U.S. military the use of their bases. "If one of the main reasons why the US is in NATO is the ability to have forces deployed in Europe that we could project to other contingencies, and now that's no longer the case, at least when it comes to some NATO members, that's a problem, and it has to be examined," he told reporters during a visit to Rome, adding that Trump "hasn't made those decisions yet".

Rubio urges Europeans to share the Iran burden
AFP/08 May ,2026
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio concluded a two-day visit to Rome on Friday, where he sought to ease tensions with Pope Leo and urged Europeans to help secure the Strait of Hormuz. The task was not easy, given President Donald Trump’s recent sharp criticism of both the Catholic leader and Italy’s far-right Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, a close ally of the US leader. “The world has to start asking itself, what is it willing to do if Iran tries to normalize a control of an international waterway? I think that’s unacceptable,” he told reporters after meeting Meloni. The appeal was aimed at Italy as well as other European countries, which Trump criticized for not helping the United States to protect the strait. Tehran seized control of the narrow chokepoint to the Gulf, a major transport route for oil, gas and fertilizer, after US and Israeli forces attacked Iran on February 28, triggering the Middle East war. After saying 5,000 troops will be withdrawal from Germany, Trump has threatened to pull US troops from Italy and Spain due to their refusal to get involved in the conflict and has questioned his country’s membership in NATO. “If one of the main reasons why the US is in NATO is the ability to have forces deployed in Europe that we could project to other contingencies, and now that’s no longer the case, at least when it comes to some NATO members, that’s a problem, and it has to be examined,” Rubio said.He added, however that the US president had not yet decided how to reprimand these countries.
‘Frank’ talks
Meloni and Rubio met at her Palazzo Chigi office for almost 90 minutes, after talks with his counterpart, Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani. Earlier this week, Meloni said pulling US troops out of Italy was “a decision that does not depend on me, and one that I personally do not agree with.”
Her office said the talks with Rubio were “broad and constructive”, but also “frank,” covering bilateral relations, the Middle East, Libya and Ukraine. “It was a frank dialogue between allies defending their own national interests, but both recognizing the value of Western unity,” the statement said. In an interview with an Italian newspaper last month, Trump said he was “shocked” at Meloni’s attitude, saying: “I thought she had courage, but I was wrong.”
‘Share points of view’
Rubio, a devout Catholic, said on Friday that his meeting the previous day with Pope Leo XIV, the first US pope, was “very good.”Trump last month accused the head of the world’s 1.4 billion Catholics of being “weak on crime and terrible for foreign policy” after Leo made critical comments about the Middle East war. Rubio said they discussed topics of common interest, including religious freedom, the threat posed by Iran, and the role of the Catholic Church in delivering American humanitarian aid to Cuba. “It’s important to share our points of view and an explanation and an understanding of where we’re coming from. And I thought it was very positive,” he said. Rubio, who also met with Vatican Secretary of State Pietro Parolin, said: “I updated them on the situation with Iran, expressed our point of view about why this is important, and the danger that Iran poses to the world.”The discussions between the pope, Parolin and Rubio addressed “the need to work tirelessly for peace,” according to the Vatican. Asked whether Trump would call Leo, Rubio said: “Maybe. I don’t know, I mean, it could happen.”At the Italian foreign ministry, Tajani and other officials presented Rubio with documents tracing the US diplomat’s Italian origins. “It’s a true honor and a very special moment to receive all of this information,” Rubio said, adding that he was going to learn Italian. The Cuban American, who speaks fluent Spanish, said: “The next time I’m back... I’ll give a speech ‘in Italiano.’”

US and Iran trade fire, threatening fragile truce
Agence France Presse/08 May ,2026
The U.S. military said it carried out strikes on Iranian military targets in response, although Tehran charged that it was Washington that had initiated the exchange of fire. The latest violence threatens to unravel a fragile truce in effect since April 8 that brought an end to weeks of U.S.-Israeli attacks on the Islamic republic, which has retaliated with strikes across the Middle East and by blocking the strait, a vital route for oil and gas shipments. The United Arab Emirates said Friday that its air defenses were "engaging missile and drone attacks originating from Iran". Asked in Washington Thursday if the Iran ceasefire was still on, Trump said: "Yeah, it is. They trifled with us today. We blew them away. They trifled. I call that a trifle."U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) said in a post on X that Iranian forces launched "multiple missiles, drones and small boats" at the three U.S. warships, but none were hit, and that it "eliminated inbound threats and targeted Iranian military facilities responsible." "CENTCOM does not seek escalation but remains positioned and ready to protect American forces," it said. For its part, Iran's central military command accused the United States of violating the ceasefire by attacking an oil tanker and another ship, saying Tehran's forces "immediately and in retaliation attacked American military vessels." Trump this week fueled hopes of a deal, saying an agreement could be near even as he again threatened to return to bombing if Tehran refused to back down. He doubled down on that stance after Thursday's clash, posting on his Truth Social platform: "We'll knock them out a lot harder, and a lot more violently, in the future, if they don't get their Deal signed, FAST!" he said. Iran's foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei said Tehran would communicate its position to mediator Pakistan "after finalizing its views."Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif had struck an optimistic tone prior to the exchanges of fire on Thursday, saying in televised remarks: "I firmly believe that this ceasefire will turn into a long-term ceasefire." But, inside Iran, civilians were cynical. "Neither side in these negotiations is really capable of reaching an agreement," 42-year-old photographer Shervin told AFP reporters in Paris, messaging from Tehran. "This is another one of Trump's games; otherwise, why are so many warships and military forces being sent toward Iran?"Following the start of the war with U.S.-Israeli attacks on February 28, Iran largely shuttered the Strait of Hormuz. Around 1,500 ships and 20,000 international crew are now trapped in the Gulf region because of the conflict, the secretary-general of the UN's International Maritime Organization, Arsenio Dominguez, told a Maritime Convention of the Americas meeting in Panama. Trump had this week briefly launched a naval operation to force open the strait to commercial vessels, only to stand it down within hours, citing progress on negotiations with Iran. The U.S. president -- who has lambasted Europe for not backing his war against Iran -- said Thursday he had a "great call" with European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen, saying they were "completely united that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon."

Trump says ceasefire still holds after fighting between the US and Iran flares
Reuters/08 May ,2026
US and Iranian forces clashed in the Gulf, and the UAE came under renewed attack, endangering a month-old ceasefire and shaking hopes for a diplomatic solution to the crisis. The flare-up in fighting came as Washington awaited a response from Tehran to its proposal to end the conflict, which began with joint US-Israeli airstrikes across Iran on February 28. President Donald Trump said on Thursday three US Navy destroyers were attacked as they moved through the strait, a conduit for around a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas flows that Iran has all but closed since the conflict started. “Three World Class American Destroyers just transited, very successfully, out of the Strait of Hormuz, under fire. There was no damage done to the three Destroyers, but great damage done to the Iranian attackers,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. Trump later told reporters the ceasefire was still in effect and sought to play down the exchange. “They trifled with us today. We blew them away,” Trump said in Washington. Iran’s top joint military command accused the US of violating the ceasefire by targeting an Iranian oil tanker and another ship, and of carrying out air attacks on civilian areas on Qeshm Island in the strait and nearby coastal areas. The military said it responded by attacking US military vessels east of the strait and south of the port of Chabahar. A spokesperson for Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters said the Iranian strikes inflicted “significant damage,” but US Central Command said none of its assets were hit. Iran’s Press TV later reported that, following several hours of fire, “the situation on Iranian islands and coastal cities by the Strait of Hormuz is back to normal now.”The two sides have occasionally exchanged gunfire since the ceasefire took effect on April 7, with Iran hitting targets in Gulf countries including the UAE. There were few details immediately available about the latest attack on the Emirates. Since the war began, Iran has often targeted the UAE and other Gulf countries, which host US bases.Oil prices rose in early trade in Asia on Friday, with Brent crude jumping above $100 a barrel after the latest clashes, while stock prices retreated after strong gains this week on hopes for a swift resolution to the conflict. “Despite ongoing hostilities and still-elevated oil prices, markets are pricing a limited duration,” said Marija Veitmane, head of equity research at State Street Markets.
Trump urges negotiated end to war
Trump suggested ongoing talks with Tehran remained on track despite Thursday’s hostilities, telling reporters, “We’re negotiating with the Iranians.”Before the latest strikes, the US had floated a proposal that would formally end the conflict but did not address key US demands that Iran suspend its nuclear work and reopen the strait. Tehran said it had not yet reached a decision on the emerging plan. Even so, Trump said Tehran had acknowledged his demand that Iran could never get a nuclear weapon, a prohibition he said was spelled out in the US proposal. “There’s zero chance. And they know that, and they’ve agreed to that. Let’s see if they are willing to sign it,” Trump said. Asked when any deal might be reached, Trump said, “It might not happen, but it could happen any day. I believe they want to deal more than I do.”The war has tested Trump’s relationship with his US base of supporters, after he had campaigned against involving the United States in foreign wars and promised to bring down fuel prices. Average US gasoline prices have climbed more than 40 percent since late February, rising by about $1.20 a gallon to more than $4, according to data from the American Automobile Association, as disruptions to oil shipments through the strait pushed crude oil prices higher.

Trump announces three-day Ukraine-Russia ceasefire
Agence France Presse/08 May ,2026
U.S. President Donald Trump announced a three-day ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia starting Saturday, saying he hoped it could lead to long term deal to end Moscow's war.
Russia had previously announced a two-day unilateral ceasefire to mark its May 9 World War II Victory Day on Saturday. Ukraine previously stated that it too had offered a truce but that this had been ignored by Moscow. The truce would also include a mutual swap of 1,000 prisoners each, said Trump, who has struggled to end the four-year conflict he once pledged to solve within a day of taking office last year. "I am pleased to announce that there will be a THREE DAY CEASEFIRE (May 9th, 10th, and 11th) in the War between Russia and Ukraine," Trump said on his Truth Social network. "This request was made directly by me, and I very much appreciate its agreement by President Vladimir Putin and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy," said the U.S. president. "Hopefully, it is the beginning of the end of a very long, deadly, and hard fought War."
Fighting continues -
Russia and Ukraine traded attacks on Friday before Trump's announcement.
Ukraine had previously never said it would abide by Moscow's call to briefly halt strikes, lambasting Putin for only wanting to pause fighting so he could stage Saturday's annual military parade on Red Square. Kyiv said Moscow had ignored a Ukrainian proposal to halt fighting earlier this week -- a counter-offer for a short-term ceasefire. Zelensky had cast it as a test of whether the Kremlin was serious about providing a brief respite in the four-year war. Russia has threatened a massive strike on the heart of Kyiv if Ukraine disrupted the Victory Day parade, repeatedly urging foreign diplomats to leave the Ukrainian capital ahead of time. On the streets of Kyiv before Trump's announcement, some brushed off the Russian threats."Nothing new will happen," Vasyl Kobzar, a 40-year-old bank employee, told AFP. "I'm worried, but it's become routine, unfortunately."Ukrainian officials told AFP there had been no orders for additional security measures to be taken so far. "We're just giving (the Russians) the finger," said one lawmaker, speaking anonymously. Ukraine's air force said Russia had fired 67 drones overnight -- the lowest number in almost a month. "Despite the declared ceasefire, the enemy has not reduced the intensity of assault operations," Zelensky said, adding that Ukraine was responding in kind. Russia said it had downed more than 400 Ukrainian drones -- 100 of them targeting Moscow -- since midnight, and that its troops were "responding symmetrically". A Ukrainian drone killed a 41-year-old man and his 15-year-old daughter in the Russian-occupied part of Ukraine’s Kherson region, said the Moscow-backed administration. Zelensky hailed a Ukrainian strike on an oil depot in the Yaroslavl region, around 200 kilometers (about 125 miles) northeast of Moscow. Some 13 airports in southern Russia were closed Friday after a Ukrainian drone hit an air navigation center in the southern city of Rostov-on-Don, Moscow's transport ministry said. It later said that flights had been partially restored. Putin convened a security council meeting over the strike, calling it an "act of a terrorist nature" that could endanger civil aviation.
- No tanks -
Ukraine had dismissed Russia's temporary truce as a propaganda measure to protect the victory parade on May 9 -- one of the most important patriotic events for Putin. Hours before Russia's ceasefire began, Zelensky warned Moscow's allies against attending the parade. Hundreds of thousands of soldiers from both sides and tens of thousands of civilians, most of them in Ukraine, have been killed since Putin ordered the invasion in February 2022. Putin has made memory of the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany a central narrative of his 25-year rule, staging massive parades in central Moscow on May 9 and invoking it to justify his invasion of Ukraine. But military hardware will be absent from the parade for the first time in almost two decades and only a handful of foreign guests will attend. Talks on ending what has spiralled into Europe's worst conflict since World War II have shown little progress and have been sidelined by the Iran conflict.

US VP Vance meeting with Qatar PM to discuss Iran, source says

Reuters/08 May ,2026
US Vice President JD Vance is meeting with the prime minister of Qatar in Washington to discuss the negotiations with Iran among other topics, a source familiar with the talks said on Friday. Vance’s talks with Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani will cover US-Qatar relations and the situation in Iran, with a focus on LNG markets and regional stability, the source said.

US military says it carries out retaliatory strikes against Iran

Reuters/08 May ,2026
The US military said it carried out retaliatory strikes on Iran on Thursday, targeting sites it said were responsible for attacking US forces in what it called unprovoked hostilities by Tehran. Earlier, Iran’s top joint military command said the US had violated a ceasefire by targeting an Iranian oil tanker and another ship entering the Strait of Hormuz, and by striking civilian areas.“US Central Command (CENTCOM) eliminated inbound threats and targeted Iranian military facilities responsible for attacking US forces including missile and drone launch sites; command and control locations; and intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance nodes,” the military said in a statement. It added Iran had launched multiple missiles, drones and small boats as three US Navy destroyers, the Truxtun, Peralta and Mason, transited strait to the Gulf of Oman. No US military assets were hit by the Iranians, the US military said. “CENTCOM does not seek escalation but remains positioned and ready to protect American forces,” the statement added. It was not immediately clear what impact this would have on a ceasefire reached last month, but US Central Command described the strikes as being carried out in self-defense. This is not the first time the two sides have exchanged fire since the ceasefire started. On Monday, the US military said it destroyed six Iranian small boats and intercepted Iranian cruise missiles and drones as Tehran sought to thwart a US naval effort to open shipping through strait. Washington was still awaiting Iran’s response to a US proposal that would stop the fighting but leave the most contentious issues, such as Iran’s nuclear program, unresolved for now. The proposal would formally end the conflict in which full-scale warfare was paused by a ceasefire announced on April 7. But it does not address key US demands that Iran suspend its nuclear work and reopen the vital strait, which before the war handled one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas supply.

Suspected oil spill seen on satellite images near Iran’s Kharg Island export hub
Reuters/08 May ,2026
A suspected oil spill covering dozens of square kilometers of sea near Iran’s main oil hub of Kharg Island has been seen on satellite imagery this week. The likely spill – appearing on images as a grey and white slick – covered waters to the west of the 8-kilometre (5-mile) long island, pictures from Copernicus’s Sentinel-1, Sentinel-2 and Sentinel-3 satellites showed on May 6-8. “The slick appears visually consistent with oil,” said Leon Moreland, researcher at the Conflict and Environment Observatory, who estimated that it was covering an area of approximately 45 square km. Louis Goddard, co-founder of consultancy Data Desk, which focuses on climate and commodities, agreed that the images likely showed an oil slick, which he said was potentially the largest to occur since the start of the US-Israel war against Iran 70 days ago. The US military and Iran’s mission to the United Nations in Geneva did not immediately respond to requests for comment on the images. The cause of the possible spill and the point of origin are currently unknown, Moreland added, noting that images from May 8 showed no evidence of additional active spills. Kharg Island, where US forces said they had destroyed military targets earlier in the war, is the hub for 90 percent of Iran’s oil exports, much of which is bound for China.The US Navy has been blockading Iran’s ports in an attempt to stop Tehran’s tankers from entering and exiting, while US and Iranian forces have clashed in the Gulf. The war has also trapped hundreds of ships in the Gulf and caused the world’s biggest disruption to crude oil supply, as well as hitting global supplies of oil products and liquefied natural gas.

UAE says responding to missiles, drone attacks from Iran
Associated Press/08 May ,2026
The United Arab Emirates said it responded to another Iranian missile barrage on Friday, hours after the U.S. said it traded fire with Iranian forces in the Strait of Hormuz, in the latest blows to a shaky month-old ceasefire. The UAE’s Defense Ministry said three people were wounded after air defenses engaged two ballistic missiles and three drones launched by Iran. It was not clear if all were successfully intercepted. Authorities told people to stay away from any fallen debris. The U.S. said it thwarted attacks on three Navy ships and struck Iranian military facilities in the strait. Iran has mostly blocked the critical waterway for global energy since the U.S. and Israel launched the war on Feb. 28, causing a global spike in fuel prices and rattling world markets. U.S. President Donald Trump played down the exchange of fire on Thursday, calling the U.S. strikes a “love tap” in a phone call with ABC. But he reiterated threats to resume full-scale bombing if Iran doesn’t accept an agreement to reopen the strait and roll back its nuclear program. Iran's Foreign Ministry said the U.S. strikes were a “clear violation” of the ceasefire. The violence came as Washington awaited a response from Tehran in their diplomatic discussions seeking to end the war. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters he expects to hear from Iran later Friday. “I hope it’s a serious offer," Rubio told reporters. "I really do.”

US fire on Iran tankers sparks reprisals as deal hangs in balance
Agence France Presse/08 May ,2026
A U.S. fighter jet disabled two Iranian-flagged tankers to enforce a port blockade on Friday, prompting retaliatory attacks and rattling a shaky truce as Tehran weighed Washington's latest proposal to end the Middle East war. A parallel ceasefire in Lebanon was also under strain on Friday, as Iran-backed Hezbollah launched missiles at a military base in Israel in response to a Beirut southern suburbs strike that killed a top commander and other attacks in the south. The U.S. Central Command said an F/A-18 Super Hornet used precision munitions Friday against two ships in the Gulf of Oman -- gateway to the vital Strait of Hormuz -- to prevent them from continuing to Iran. An Iranian military official told local media the country's navy had "responded to the violation of the ceasefire and to American terrorism with strikes", adding that after the "exchanges of fire, the clashes have now ceased". The latest incident came after another flare-up overnight in the strait, control of which an adviser to Iran's supreme leader compared to having "an atomic bomb". U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio reiterated on Friday that it was "unacceptable" for Tehran to control the strait, adding that Washington was expecting Iran's response to its latest proposal later in the day. "I hope it's a serious offer, I really do," he told reporters during a trip to Rome. Washington has sent Iran, via Pakistani mediators, a proposal to extend the truce in the Gulf to allow talks on a final settlement of the conflict launched 10 weeks ago with U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran. Iran's foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei said on Friday that the proposal was still "under review, and once a final decision is reached, it will certainly be announced", according to the ISNA news agency.
'They trifled with us' -
The night before, U.S. Central Command said Iran had launched missiles, drones and small boats at three U.S. warships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, but that none were hit and U.S. forces had retaliated against land bases in Iran. Iran's central military command, Khatam al-Anbiya, countered that the clash had erupted when U.S. vessels targeted an Iranian tanker heading towards the strait, and accused its foe of hitting civilian areas. Asked in Washington on Thursday if the truce was still in effect after the clash, U.S. President Donald Trump said: "Yeah, it is. They trifled with us today. We blew them away."Iran accused regional U.S. allies of cooperating in the strikes, without naming them, though the United Arab Emirates said it had been forced to intercept a volley of Iranian drones and missiles that wounded three people. Following the start of the war on February 28, Iran largely closed the Strait of Hormuz, throwing global markets into turmoil and driving up oil prices. The U.S. later imposed its own blockade of Iranian ports in response. On Sunday, Trump announced a U.S. naval operation designed to reopen the strait to commercial shipping, only to abandon it on Tuesday in favor of a return to negotiations. On Friday, Saudi sources told AFP that the kingdom had refused permission for the U.S. military to use its bases and airspace for the Hormuz operation, with one saying Riyadh "felt it would just escalate the situation and would not work".Mohammad Mokhber, an adviser to Iran's supreme leader, said the Islamic republic had long "neglected" its privileged position along the strait, calling it "an opportunity as precious as an atomic bomb". "Indeed, having in one's hands a position that allows you to influence the global economy with a single decision is a major opportunity," he added, vowing not to relinquish it. This week Tehran created an authority to approve transit through the strait and to collect tolls from vessels, according to leading shipping industry journal Lloyd's List.

Iraq denies US claims deputy oil minister helped Iran evade sanctions
Al Arabiya English/08 May ,2026
Iraq’s oil ministry has denied US accusations against its deputy minister, who the United States hit with sanctions over alleged support to Iran as Washington escalates pressure on Baghdad to break with Iranian-linked groups.The US State Department on Thursday announced sanctions on Ali Maarij al-Bahadli, saying he “abused his government position to divert Iraqi oil in support of the Iranian regime and its terrorist proxies.”It accused him of fraudulently mixing Iraqi and Iranian oil as part of a scheme to help Iran avoid sanctions. His ministry said late Thursday that “it denies the accusations” against al-Bahadli and stressed “the importance of transparency in addressing all... accusations on the basis of evidence and facts,” according to the INA state news agency. The ministry said it was prepared to investigate the matter, but added that “crude oil export operations, marketing, loading onto tankers, and related procedures” were not part of al-Bahadli’s job. After entities run by an Iraqi businessman were sanctioned over the same accusations last year, Iraq’s state oil marketing company SOMO denied that any oil mixing operations were taking place in the country’s ports or territorial waters to help Iran.
The United States has unilateral sanctions against Iranian oil, seeking to punish any country or company that buys it. Iran has had close relations with many key players in Iraq since the 2003 US invasion toppled Saddam Hussein. Washington, which holds major sway in Iraq has also been escalating pressure on the Iraqi state to disarm Tehran-backed armed groups, which the US designates as terrorist organizations.With AFP

US Fires on and Disables 2 More Iranian Tankers as Tensions Rise in Strait of Hormuz
Asharq Al Awsat/May 08/2026
US forces fired on and disabled two Iranian oil tankers on Friday after exchanging fire with Iranian forces in the Strait of Hormuz overnight. The United Arab Emirates, meanwhile, reported another Iranian missile and drone attack. The attacks cast more doubt on a tenuous month-old ceasefire that the United States has insisted is still in effect. Washington is awaiting an Iranian response to its latest proposal for a deal to end the war, reopen the strait and roll back Tehran’s disputed nuclear program. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said he hopes to receive “a serious offer” from Iran later Friday. The US military said Friday that its forces had disabled two Iranian tankers that were trying to breach an American blockade of Iran’s ports. Hours earlier, the military said it thwarted attacks on three Navy ships and struck Iranian military facilities in the strait. Iran has mostly blocked the critical waterway for global energy since the US and Israel launched the war on Feb. 28, causing a global spike in fuel prices and rattling world markets. The US has imposed its own blockade of Iran's ports. The UAE’s Defense Ministry meanwhile said three people were wounded after air defenses engaged two ballistic missiles and three drones launched by Iran. It was not clear if all were successfully intercepted.
US says it responded to an attack in the strait
The US military posted video of the two Iranian tankers as their smokestacks were struck by an American fighter jet on Friday. Earlier in the week, an American military jet shot out the rudder of a tanker the US military said was attempting to breach its blockade. Late Thursday, the US military said it thwarted Iranian attacks on three Navy ships in the Strait of Hormuz and struck Iranian military facilities in response. It said no American ships were hit. “They threaten Americans, they are going to be blown up,” Rubio told reporters Friday. Iran's Foreign Ministry condemned what it called “hostile” US military action, saying it violated the ceasefire. “Every time a diplomatic solution is on the table, the U.S. opts for a reckless military adventure,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi posted on X. A US strike overnight killed at least one sailor and injured 10 others aboard a cargo vessel that caught fire, a news agency affiliated with Iran's judiciary reported. It was not clear if the ship was one of the two tankers the US acknowledged striking. US President Donald Trump has insisted the ceasefire is holding. He also has reiterated threats to resume full-scale bombing if Iran doesn’t accept an agreement to reopen the strait and roll back its nuclear program. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said his country has been in contact with the US and Iran “day and night” in an effort to extend the ceasefire and reach a peace deal. Images show apparent oil slick off Iranian terminal
Satellite images reviewed by The Associated Press show what appears to be an oil slick in the Gulf emanating from the western side of Kharg Island, Iran’s main crude export terminal. The images taken Wednesday show the slick covering roughly 95 square kilometers (36 square miles). Windward AI, a maritime intelligence firm, said it first detected the spill in satellite images taken Tuesday and the slick was spreading southwest at a rate of about 2 kilometers (1.2 miles) an hour. “If the slick continues drifting southward, there could also be risks to ecologically sensitive and protected marine areas in the Gulf,” said Nina Noelle, an international crisis operations expert with Greenpeace Germany. The Pentagon declined to comment on whether the US military was tracking the spill or whether there had been recent strikes on the Iranian island. Based on the imagery taken earlier this week, the spill occurred before the most recent round of US strikes.
Rubio says 'unacceptable' for an Iranian agency to control strait
Rubio said Friday that it's “unacceptable” for Iran to have a government agency that vets and taxes ships seeking passage through the strait. Lloyd’s List Intelligence, a shipping data company, reported Thursday that Iran has created such an agency. The Iranian effort to formalize control over the channel raised new concerns about international shipping, with hundreds of commercial vessels bottled up in the Gulf and unable to reach the open sea. “Is the world going to accept that Iran now controls an international waterway?” Rubio said. “What is the world prepared to do about it?” Iran has effectively closed the strait, a vital waterway for the shipment of oil, gas, fertilizer and other petroleum products, while the US is blockading Iranian ports. A Chinese-crewed oil tanker was attacked near the strait. China has continued to import oil from Iran despite the effective closure of the waterway. China's Foreign Ministry expressed concern, saying the tanker was registered in the Marshall Islands with Chinese crew on board. There were no casualties reported. An oil tanker that passed through the Strait of Hormuz in mid-April arrived off South Korea’s coast on Friday with 1 million barrels of crude. South Korea, which last year imported more than 60% of its crude through the strait, has capped prices of gasoline and other petroleum products.

Rubio Urges Europeans to Share the Iran Burden
Asharq Al Awsat/8 May 2026
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio concluded a two-day visit to Rome on Friday, where he sought to ease tensions with Pope Leo and urged Europeans to help secure the Strait of Hormuz. The task was not easy, given President Donald Trump's recent sharp criticism of both the Catholic leader and Italy's far-right Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, a close ally of the US leader. "The world has to start asking itself, what is it willing to do if Iran tries to normalize a control of an international waterway? I think that's unacceptable," he told reporters after meeting Meloni. The appeal was aimed at Italy as well as other European countries, which Trump criticized for not helping the United States to protect the Strait. Tehran seized control of the narrow chokepoint to the Gulf, a major transport route for oil, gas and fertilizer, after US and Israeli forces attacked Iran on February 28, triggering the Middle East war. After saying 5,000 troops will be withdrawn from Germany, Trump has threatened to pull US troops from Italy and Spain due to their refusal to get involved in the conflict, and has questioned his country's membership in NATO. "If one of the main reasons why the US is in NATO is the ability to have forces deployed in Europe that we could project to other contingencies, and now that's no longer the case, at least when it comes to some NATO members, that's a problem, and it has to be examined," Rubio said.
He added, however that the US president had not yet decided how to reprimand these countries.
'Frank' talks -
Meloni and Rubio met at her Palazzo Chigi office for almost 90 minutes, after talks with his counterpart, Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani. Earlier this week, Meloni said pulling US troops out of Italy was "a decision that does not depend on me, and one that I personally do not agree with". Her office said the talks with Rubio were "broad and constructive", but also "frank", covering bilateral relations, the Middle East, Libya and Ukraine. "It was a frank dialogue between allies defending their own national interests, but both recognizing the value of Western unity," the statement said. In an interview with an Italian newspaper last month, Trump said he was "shocked" at Meloni's attitude, saying: "I thought she had courage, but I was wrong."
'Share points of view' -
Rubio, a devout Catholic, said on Friday that his meeting the previous day with Pope Leo XIV, the first US pope, was "very good". Trump last month accused the head of the world's 1.4 billion Catholics of being "weak on crime and terrible for foreign policy" after Leo made critical comments about the Middle East war. Rubio said they discussed topics of common interest, including religious freedom, the threat posed by Iran, and the role of the Catholic Church in delivering American humanitarian aid to Cuba. "It's important to share our points of view and an explanation and an understanding of where we're coming from. And I thought it was very positive," he said. Rubio, who also met with Vatican Secretary of State Pietro Parolin, said: "I updated them on the situation with Iran, expressed our point of view about why this is important, and the danger that Iran poses to the world." The discussions between the pope, Parolin and Rubio addressed "the need to work tirelessly for peace", according to the Vatican. Asked whether Trump would call Leo, Rubio said: "Maybe. I don't know, I mean, it could happen." At the Italian foreign ministry, Tajani and other officials presented Rubio with documents tracing the US diplomat's Italian origins. "It's a true honor and a very special moment to receive all of this information," Rubio said, adding that he was going to learn Italian. The Cuban-American, who speaks fluent Spanish, said: "The next time I'm back... I'll give a speech 'in Italiano'."

Saudi Source to Asharq Al-Awsat: Kingdom Did Not Allow Use of Its Airspace for Offensive Military Operations
Riyadh: Abdulhadi Habtor/8 May 2026
A Saudi source told Asharq Al-Awsat that the Kingdom has not permitted its airspace to be used in support of any offensive military operations, stressing that Riyadh is seeking de-escalation and supports Pakistan’s efforts to reach an agreement ending the war. The source said certain parties were attempting to present a misleading picture of the Kingdom’s position for what he described as “suspicious” motives. Meanwhile, Saudi Deputy Minister for Public Diplomacy Dr. Rayed Krimly reaffirmed the Kingdom’s position calling for de-escalation, avoiding further escalation, and supporting negotiations and efforts aimed at ending the war between Iran on one side and the United States and Israel on the other. Krimly underscored Riyadh’s consistent position in support of de-escalation and avoiding further escalation, warning in a post on X against "media reports attributed to unnamed sources - some of whom claim to be Saudi - suggesting otherwise."For his part, Gulf Research Center Chairman Dr. Abdulaziz bin Sager said the Saudi position had been clear from the outset and centered on “avoiding escalation and resolving disputes through political dialogue.”Bin Sager told Asharq Al-Awsat: “We recall Crown Prince and Prime Minister Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s phone call with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, during which he affirmed that the Kingdom would not allow its territory or airspace to be used in any military operations.”A senior Saudi Foreign Ministry official had previously told Asharq Al-Awsat on March 24 that the Kingdom had already denied allegations claiming the Saudi leadership preferred prolonging the ongoing war between Iran on one side and the United States and Israel on the other. The official added that Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan had previously stated, during a press conference following a ministerial meeting of Arab and Islamic countries in Riyadh, that Iranian attacks must stop, that the Kingdom’s patience has limits, and that Riyadh reserves the right to respond and deter aggression through political and other measures.
According to bin Sager, Saudi Arabia’s key demands include “halting Iranian attacks, securing guarantees to end the war, preventing Iranian interference in the internal affairs of Gulf and other Arab states, as well as ensuring maritime and energy security.”He added: “The Kingdom is seeking to lower tensions and create space for negotiations, and believes that any escalation could obstruct talks and affect the Strait of Hormuz.”Saudi Arabia’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations, Dr. Abdulaziz Al-Wasel, said Thursday that the Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most vital maritime corridors for international trade and global energy security. Al-Wasel made the remarks during a joint press conference in New York between the Gulf Cooperation Council and the United States regarding a draft resolution on freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. The Saudi diplomat said any threat to freedom of navigation in the strait would directly affect the stability of global markets and international supply chains. He also warned of the humanitarian and economic repercussions of disruptions to the flow of essential goods, medical supplies, and humanitarian aid. Al-Wasel stressed the importance of safeguarding maritime security and ensuring the safe and uninterrupted flow of international trade in accordance with international law. He called for coordinated international action to de-escalate tensions and prevent the crisis from worsening in a way that would preserve regional and international security and stability.
The Saudi diplomat also emphasized the importance of strengthening international cooperation to protect vital maritime corridors and maintain international peace and security.

New Gaza Police Force Faces Uncertainty over Composition, Representation
Gaza: Asharq Al Awsat/May 08/2026
The issue of allowing the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza into the enclave to begin its work remains unresolved. Israel continues to refuse its entry, while other complications persist over the conditions under which it would operate, including the creation of a police force under its authority instead of Hamas police and its government security agencies. One of the 15 clauses in the “roadmap” presented to Hamas and other Palestinian factions during Cairo negotiations, specifically on April 19, clearly states that Hamas, the factions, clans, and individuals must hand over their weapons to the committee that would run the enclave. The committee would have a security force to enforce the law. The fate of Hamas employees was one of the unresolved issues in the negotiations that preceded and followed the latest roadmap. Their number is estimated in the tens of thousands, and their future remains unclear.
Sources from Hamas and other factions told Asharq Al-Awsat that the issue had largely been resolved, that fair solutions had been found for all sides, and that only final agreement remained. The sources said Hamas and the factions had agreed to allow a new police force to enter Gaza and operate under the authority of the Gaza administration committee. The main obstacle was Israel, which has so far refused to allow the committee itself to enter the enclave and assume its duties, they stressed. Under the proposed plan, prepared within the Board of Peace, particularly by its director-general Nickolay Mladenov in consultation with the Gaza Administration Committee and mediators, 12,000 police officers would initially work under the committee’s supervision. Of those, 5,000 would be deployed in the first phase. According to the plan, as Asharq Al-Awsat learned from sources within the factions and others in contact with the committee, the first 5,000 officers were selected from Palestinians who had been receiving training at police colleges in several Arab countries after leaving Gaza, both before and during the war.The sources said they would undergo Israeli security screening. Many Palestinians receive training at police colleges in countries including Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Algeria, Qatar, Türkiye, and others. It remains unclear whether the remaining 7,000 officers would also be drawn from that pool, whose numbers appear to be far short of the required number. Israel is expected to reject students trained in Doha and Ankara. It is also unclear whether the plan would include training for Gaza students at Al-Istiqlal University, which specializes in graduating police and military personnel. Officers from the Palestinian Authority inside the enclave had sent their sons there for education and training. Many retired officers from the Palestinian Authority security services are now in Cairo. Some arrived from Gaza weeks ago as part of preparations for a comprehensive security plan led by Sami Nasman, the official in charge of security in the Gaza administration committee. The same sources said there is a plan to use some Palestinian Authority security employees known as the “2005 enlistments,” along with police personnel from Hamas government employees who are under 45 and pass Israeli security screening. They said this arrangement could be temporary until the recruitment of a new police force is completed. Former employees would be treated fairly through practical solutions that preserve their rights, while thousands of them would remain in police duties without weapons. In February, the Gaza administration committee posted a registration link on its website for the new police force. More than 100,000 young Palestinians from inside Gaza registered for jobs. At the time, discussions focused on selecting only 2,000 of them as a first step, followed by another 3,000. The Times of Israel on Friday quoted a US official and a Middle Eastern diplomat as saying the UAE had transferred $100 million to the Board of Peace to train the new police force. The website said the transfer was the largest received by the Board of Peace to date, following pledges worth $17 billion announced at a donor conference hosted by US President Donald Trump in February. The new Palestinian police force is viewed as a top priority for the Board of Peace, which seeks to create new civilian and security bodies to govern Gaza, with the aim of removing Hamas from power and pushing toward an Israeli withdrawal, the website said.

Syria Says Arrested Assad-Era General Over Chemical Attack
Reuters/8 May 2026
Syria's interior ministry on Friday announced the arrest of a general from ousted president Bashar al-Assad's era, accusing him of involvement in a 2013 chemical attack on a suburb of the capital, Damascus. In August 2013, the army under Assad's rule was accused of using chemical weapons to target areas then under opposition control, killing more than 1,400 men, women and children, according to US intelligence and rights groups. With Syria at the height of its civil war, the Assad government denied responsibility, but agreed to hand over its chemical arsenal in order to avert US strikes. Assad went on to remain in power for more than a decade, only to be ousted in 2024 by opposition forces led by now President Ahmed al-Sharaa. On Friday, the ministry said it arrested "Khardal Ahmed Dayoub, a former brigadier general in the forces of the ousted regime and former head of the Air Force Intelligence branch in Daraa, for his direct involvement in systematic violations against civilians". The ministry accused Dayoub of being "implicated in chemical attacks during his service in the Damascus branch and his presence in the Harasta area" where "he oversaw repressive operations and contributed to the logistical coordination for the bombing of Eastern Ghouta with internationally prohibited chemical weapons". Dayoub, the latest in a string of Assad-era officials detained in recent months, is also accused of extrajudicial killings and coordination with Iran and Lebanon’s Iran-backed Hezbollah, both of which were backing the ousted government. Survivors of the attacks, including medics, at the time risked their lives by posting dozens of videos online, and spoke to journalists including AFP reporters about the horror they had witnessed. The footage showed dozens of corpses, many of them children, outstretched on the ground. Other images showed unconscious children, people foaming at the mouth and doctors trying to help them breathe.
Global condemnation -
The scenes provoked revulsion and condemnation around the globe. A United Nations report later said there was clear evidence sarin gas had been used. Syria agreed that year to join the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) and disclose and hand over its toxic stockpile under Russian and US pressure, averting the threat of strikes by Washington and its allies. But that was not the last of the chemical attacks: the OPCW went on to blame Assad's forces for others later in the civil war. Syria's civil war had begun in 2011, with a brutal crackdown on peaceful anti-regime protesters that yielded an armed uprising. More than half a million people ended up being killed, and millions more forced into exile. Last month, Interior Minister Anas Khattab announced the arrest of Adnan Abboud Hilweh, one of the Syrian generals internationally sanctioned over involvement in the Ghouta attack.Syria's new authorities have vowed to provide justice and accountability for Assad-era atrocities, while activists and foreign governments have emphasized the importance of transitional justice to ensure the country moves forward. Last month, a Syrian court conducted the first hearing in an in absentia trial of Assad himself, alongside several senior members of his government. Assad fled to Moscow as his country fell to opposition hands in December 2024, bringing to a stunning end decades of rule by his clan.

Three-Member Committee Negotiates With Washington on Disarming Iraqi Factions
London: Ali Saray/Asharq Al-Awsat/8 May 2026
Asharq Al-Awsat has learned that an Iraqi committee comprising three senior figures is close to finalizing an “executive plan” to disarm armed factions, ahead of presenting it to US officials in the coming days. As the process coincides with expected changes in the leadership of key security agencies under the incoming government, political and government officials ruled out the possibility that the plan would go beyond “buying time,” while representatives of three factions insisted they “will not surrender their weapons.”Washington has intensified pressure on the ruling Shiite parties to disarm armed factions and prevent their representatives from participating in the new government. These pressures are expected to translate into practical measures as the formation of the next government in Baghdad approaches. The committee, whose existence is being disclosed for the first time, includes Prime Minister-designate Ali al-Zaidi, outgoing Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, and Badr Organization leader Hadi al-Amiri. According to sources, the committee has held secret negotiations with militia leaders, presenting them with “ideas on how to disarm and integrate fighters,” although some meetings “did not proceed calmly.”
Sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that al-Amiri’s presence, given his longstanding ties to Iran, “was supposed to help build trust with the factions and persuade them to engage with the state,” adding that the committee had been fully authorized by the Coordination Framework.
A climate of mistrust and mutual accusations prevails between Shiite party leaders and armed factions, the sources said, predicting that Zaidi’s government could face serious obstacles preventing it from implementing fundamental reforms related to weapons and financial resources that Washington says are deliberately being funneled to Iran through various channels.
Zaidi has enjoyed unprecedented support from the US administration since being formally tasked with forming a government. However, many believe the American “honeymoon” could end if no meaningful progress is made in reducing Iranian influence and severing militia ties to the Iraqi state.
A phone call last Wednesday between US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Prime Minister-designate Ali al-Zaidi reportedly signaled that Washington wants militia elements removed not only from senior ministerial posts, but also from positions at the level of director-general.
Sources said people close to Zaidi understood from the call with Hegseth that, from Washington’s perspective, the legitimacy of the new Baghdad government would depend on its ability to distance militias from the machinery of the state.
A senior political official told Asharq Al-Awsat that the committee had accelerated its work under mounting US pressure, noting that security advisers had been working for months on various options for disarmament or integration, but that the pace had intensified in recent weeks.
The official said the executive plan includes disarming factions of heavy and medium weapons and restructuring the Popular Mobilization Forces, without specifying how the process would be carried out. Uncertainty continues to surround the future of the PMF in Iraq, particularly whether it will ultimately submit to US pressure and become part of the disarmament project.
Iraqi politicians say General David Petraeus may visit Baghdad this week to ensure that “the new government fully severs its ties with militias.” It has not been possible to verify the official capacity Petraeus would hold during the expected visit to Baghdad. Petraeus is considered one of the leading US commanders associated with the Iraq war after 2003. He gained extensive field and strategic experience, most notably as commander of the 101st Airborne Division during the invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein.
His later experience also positions him to play a role in the factions’ weapons matter. In 2004, he was tasked with training local security forces amid escalating sectarian violence and worked closely with political leaders, some of whom headed militias at the time, including Hadi al-Amiri.
Iraqi sources suggested that the “executive plan” being prepared by the committee “may offer promising ideas to convince the Americans of Zaidi’s seriousness regarding disarmament, but there are doubts over whether it will actually be implemented, and it may amount to little more than an attempt to buy time, enough to secure passage of Zaidi’s government while waiting for the Iran-US war to end.”A prominent Shiite adviser said: “Stalling on the issue of factional weapons will end with the ruling alliance being classified as a political group supporting terrorism. For Iraq, this would mean awaiting severe economic sanctions as a rogue state.”
Zaidi’s government program consists of 14 points, headed by “restricting weapons to the hands of the state and enforcing the rule of law.” However, it also includes a clause on “developing the combat capabilities of the Popular Mobilization Forces and defining its responsibilities and role within the military structure.”An Iraqi official told Asharq Al-Awsat that “Washington does not want to loosen its grip on Baghdad to prevent armed faction leaders and members from infiltrating the new government.”
‘We Will Not Surrender Our Weapons’
In response to the tougher US position, some armed factions are adopting a more hardline stance. A spokesperson for one faction said that Kataib Hezbollah, Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada, and Harakat al-Nujaba reject handing over their weapons to any party whatsoever.
The spokesperson, who requested anonymity, said the three factions were “prepared to pay any price resulting from their refusal to disarm.”Sources said the armed factions do not believe they are compelled to relinquish their weapons. Instead, they view potential US consequences as unlikely to be harsher than what occurred during the previous war, including assassinations and the destruction of infrastructure. “The war showed us how more power can be gained,” the faction spokesperson said. Within the Coordination Framework, questions are being raised about whether Washington seeks to isolate all militias from state institutions, including those that have begun adopting rhetoric less centered on weapons and already hold seats in the Iraqi parliament.
These groups, led by Asaib Ahl al-Haq, are exploring alternative formulas for participating in the new government by reviving a model previously used during Mustafa al-Kadhimi’s administration: backing figures described as independent for ministerial positions while maintaining indirect influence over those posts. US Treasury sanctions announced Thursday targeted figures involved in oil smuggling, including Laith al-Khazali, brother of Asaib Ahl al-Haq leader Qais al-Khazali, who has reportedly at times been considered for the Interior Ministry and at others for a service ministry. The sanctions also included Ali Muaredh al-Bahadli. Informed sources said “a political faction had nominated him for the position of Iraqi oil minister.”Politicians from the Coordination Framework said the sanctions may have been intended to “block undesirable nominations and steer the process toward other candidates.”Although the disarmament negotiations appear in essence to be discussions about repositioning armed groups in a way that does not provoke American anger, according to one Iraqi official, that does not mean changes will not occur. The official said the new government would witness security appointments aimed at reducing factional influence over sensitive institutions, including the intelligence service, which is likely to be headed by a Sunni figure.

The Latest LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on 08-09 May/2026
Europe's 'Global Alliance' Is Not Peace, It Is Dispossession by Another Name
Avner Amichai/Gatestone Institute/May 08/2026
The so-called "Global Alliance for the implementation of the Two-State Solution" -- co-chaired by the EU, Saudi Arabia, and Norway, with active European partners including the increasingly Israel-critical Netherlands, and openly Israel-hostile states such as Belgium, Ireland, Spain, and France -- is not a peace project. It is a coordinated campaign of diplomatic pressure, financial subversion, and ideological warfare aimed at making Jewish life in Judea and Samaria impossible and at eventually making those areas free of Jews, or "Judenrein".
Surveys by the Israeli organization Regavim, dedicated to the rule of law and clean government in Israel's land-use policy, have documented more than 103,000 illegal Palestinian structures in Area C of Judea and Samaria (the so-called 'West Bank'). That zone, according to the Oslo Accords that Europe itself signed as a witness, is under full Israeli control, including exclusive authority over land-use planning, building permits, and related civil matters. The illegal Palestinian "facts on the ground" include strategic outposts, homes, roads, schools, and solar farms are deliberately placed to fragment and splinter the Jewish homeland. The EU has poured hundreds of millions of euros into these illegal projects, often with EU flags flying as a mockery.
That intrusion is not "aid". It is land theft by proxy.
Europe has effectively become the financier of the PA/PLO's unilateral strategy, turning illegal construction into a weapon of territorial conquest.
The complicity runs even deeper. Europe is not merely funding illegal outposts, it is actively training and equipping the Palestinian Authority's security forces into a 65,000-strong shadow army.
European advisors run programs at the Jericho military academy, while EU funds cover salaries, equipment, and "professionalization." These are forces our organization has repeatedly exposed as "officers by day, terrorists by night" -- a war machine capable of launching October 7-type massacres, but potentially on a much larger scale....
Post-October 7, pushing a Palestinian state onto the strategic highlands of Judea and Samaria – again: the cradle of Jewish civilization, where our kings ruled, prophets spoke, and our identity was forged -- is not a peace plan. It is an invitation to slaughter. The hills overlooking Tel Aviv would become launchpads for the PLO, Hamas, Iran, and other genocidal actors. Yet Europe demands Israeli concessions while ignoring Palestinian rejectionism, pay-for-slay policies, and its totally explicit goal of destroying the Jewish state.
Regavim has a clear message for European governments and their Global Alliance: Stop funding the theft of our homeland. Stop financing classrooms that teach Jewish murder is heroic. Stop arming a terror army preparing the next October 7. Stop pretending that more than 3,000 years of Jewish history can be erased by EU euros and diplomatic declarations. And stop blocking the return of Jews to the land that has always been theirs.
Europe has effectively become the financier of the Palestinian Authority/PLO's unilateral strategy, turning illegal construction into a weapon of territorial conquest. Pictured: Sven Kuhn von Burgsdorff (R), then head of the EU mission to the West Bank and Gaza Strip, visits the illegally-built Palestinian community of Khan al-Ahmar near Jerusalem, on January 30, 2023. (Photo by Ahmad Gharabli/AFP via Getty Images)
Europe has a long history, from medieval expulsions to the Holocaust, of dispossessing, murdering, and expelling Jews. Today, this same impulse continues under the language of diplomacy and "international law," now targeting the Jewish people's biblical heartland by, once again, trying to force a genocidally hostile (here and here, article 7) so-called "two-state solution" on the Jewish state.
The so-called "Global Alliance for the implementation of the Two-State Solution" -- co-chaired by the EU, Saudi Arabia, and Norway, with active European partners including the increasingly Israel-critical Netherlands[1], and openly Israel-hostile states such as Belgium, Ireland, Spain, and France -- is not a peace project. It is a coordinated campaign of diplomatic pressure, financial subversion, and ideological warfare aimed at making Jewish life in Judea and Samaria impossible and at eventually making those areas free of Jews, or "Judenrein".
While Alliance ministers issue lofty declarations about "peace," European taxpayers' hard-earned money is busy building illegal facts on the ground that destroy any real hope for peace. Surveys by the Israeli organization Regavim, dedicated to the rule of law and clean government in Israel's land-use policy, have documented more than 103,000 illegal Palestinian structures in Area C of Judea and Samaria (the so-called 'West Bank'). That zone, according to the Oslo Accords that Europe itself signed as a witness, is under full Israeli control, including exclusive authority over land-use planning, building permits, and related civil matters.[2]. The illegal Palestinian "facts on the ground" include strategic outposts, homes, roads, schools, and solar farms are deliberately placed to fragment and splinter the Jewish homeland. The EU has poured hundreds of millions of euros into these illegal projects, often with EU flags flying as a mockery. This has been going on for decades.
The Netherlands and other member states actively participate. That intrusion is not aid. It is land theft by proxy. This systematic encroachment follows the blueprint of the Fayyad Plan (2009), in which then PA Prime Minister Salam Fayyad openly declared the goal of unilaterally creating a de facto Palestinian state by building "facts on the ground" in Area C of Judea and Samaria, bypassing negotiations with Israel. Europe has effectively become the financier of Fayyad's unilateral strategy, turning illegal construction into a weapon of territorial conquest.
EU foreign affairs chief Kaja Kallas boasted on April 20, 2026, that "Europe is the biggest supporter of the Palestinian people", the largest donor and main backer of the Palestinian Authority, funding police, justice, governance, and border management. She is right. Europe bankrolls the entire apparatus at industrial scale.
The complicity runs even deeper. Europe is not merely funding illegal outposts. It is actively training and equipping the Palestinian Authority's security forces into a 65,000-strong shadow army. European advisors run programs at the Jericho military academy, while EU funds cover salaries, equipment, and "professionalization." These are forces Regavim has repeatedly exposed as "officers by day, terrorists by night" -- a war machine capable of launching October 7-type massacres, but potentially on a much larger scale, from the hills of Judea and Samaria directly into Israel's population centers on the coastal plain.
What else does this European investment produce? A Palestinian Authority that indoctrinates its children for the next war, a 'final-solution'-by-proxy that the Europeans themselves failed to fully accomplish. Despite repeated promises to European donors, the PA's textbooks remain filled with antisemitism and jihad. The European Parliament has condemned them for the seventh consecutive year, but, as reported by the award-winning journalist and Gatestone Senior Fellow Khaled Abu Toameh, there is no enforcement by the European Commission and its bureaucrats, or even conditions demanded with any seriousness. The current curriculum still celebrates the 1978 coastal road massacre (38 Israelis murdered, including 13 children) as heroism, uses maps that erase Israel, teaches -- despite massive archaeological, biblical and documented evidence to the contrary -- that Jews are foreign colonizers with no history here, and not only glorifies but pays sizeable stipends-for-life to the terrorists who spill Jewish blood, or to their families. These pay-for-slay payments amounted to at least $325 million in 2025, with more than 6,000 new recipients found just in the first months of 2026.
Post-October 7, pushing a Palestinian state onto the strategic highlands of Judea and Samaria -- the cradle of Jewish civilization, where our kings ruled, prophets spoke, and our identity was forged -- is not a peace plan. It is an invitation to slaughter. The hills overlooking Tel Aviv would become launchpads for the PLO, Hamas, Iran and other genocidal actors. Yet Europe demands Israeli concessions while ignoring Palestinian rejectionism, pay-for-slay policies, and its startlingly explicit goal of destroying the Jewish state.
It is hard to ignore the cruel irony that once again Europe's Jews, who have lived there for generations, are once again fleeing in growing numbers, driven out by surging antisemitism that European governments and the EU have chosen not to seriously confront. People are being murdered, synagogues are attacked, streets are not safe, and Jewish schools need guards. Even so, it is clear that the worst is still to come.
The very same political actors who cannot or will not protect their Jews now seem to be working aggressively to prevent them from finding security in their ancestral homeland, in Judea and Samaria. Europe exports its "Jewish problem" while demanding that Israel surrender the one place where those Jews could truly return home. This is a haunting echo of former British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain's other great historic disaster, the notorious 1939 British White Paper, which bypassed earlier international commitments to the Jews in then-Palestine, as it was called for all its citizens before Israeli independence in 1948, in favor of having an Arab-majority nation within 10 years with supposed "protection" for the Jewish minority. One can imagine how that would have worked out.
Regavim has a clear message for European governments and their Global Alliance: Stop funding the theft of our homeland. Stop financing classrooms that teach Jewish murder is heroic. Stop arming a terror army preparing the next October 7. Stop pretending that more than 3,000 years of Jewish history can be erased by EU euros and diplomatic declarations. And stop blocking the return of Jews to the land that has always been theirs.
The Land of Israel belongs to the People of Israel. Regavim and other organizations will keep exposing every illegal outpost, every euro, and every lie. We will not be robbed again.
Avner Amichai (aka Wim Kortenoeven), a former Member of Parliament in the Netherlands, now serves as diplomatic liaison for Regavim.
[1] Since the Hamas attacks on Israel on October 7, 2023, the Netherlands -- long regarded as one of Israel's strongest supporters in the EU -- has adopted a markedly more critical stance toward Israeli policy, both bilaterally and within the European Union. It has actively pushed for stronger collective EU measures, including reviewing or suspending parts of the EU-Israel Association Agreement. The Dutch parliament now has an Israel-critical/hostile majority, and pro-Israel forces such as Geert Wilders' Party for Freedom (PVV) have been excluded from government participation.
[2] Aside from the powers resulting from the Oslo II Agreement, Israel has legitimate claims to Judea and Samaria under international law.
© 2026 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute.

Winning the Iran War — Whether Washington Knows It or Not
Mark Dubowitz/ The Iran Breakdown/May 08/2026
https://www.fdd.org/podcasts/the-iran-breakdown/2026/05/04/winning-the-iran-war-whether-washington-knows-it-or-not/
In this special solo episode of The Iran Breakdown, FDD CEO Mark Dubowitz pushes back hard on the narrative that America is losing the war with the Islamic Republic. Step by step, he makes the case that Tehran has just suffered the most severe strategic defeat in its 47-year history — its leadership decapitated, its nuclear program gutted, its air defenses shattered, its proxies in ruins, and its economy in a death spiral with the clock running out. The only remaining question: will the ceasefire be a pause that lets the regime breathe — or the closing vice on a failing regime? Mark argues the discipline to answer that question correctly is the last thing standing between America and a durable victory.
Transcript
DUBOWITZ: If you told me a few years ago that this is where Iran would stand today, I would’ve called it a fantasy. I’m Mark Dubowitz, and this is The Iran Breakdown. And today I want to push back hard on a narrative I keep hearing — in op-ed pages, on cable panels, and in the chat around Washington — that the United States is somehow losing this war, that we are stuck, that Tehran has the upper hand. We are not losing. We are not stuck. The Islamic Republic has just suffered the most severe strategic defeat in its 47-year history. Whether we recognize it, whether we have the discipline to consolidate it — that is a different question, and we will get to it. But first, the picture, because the picture has been distorted by the noise of a long war, by understandable frustration with stalemates and ceasefires, and by a media ecosystem that confuses tactical setbacks with strategic outcomes.
Let me walk you through where things actually stand. The mistake too many analysts are making — and I include some very smart people in this — is confusing the regime’s survival with its strength. A regime can persist and still be strategically hollowed out. A regime can hold territory, hold a flag, hold a capital, and have lost the actual contest. That is exactly what is happening to Tehran. When you assess state power, you look at a handful of things: its weapons, its leadership, its economy, its alliances, its proxies, its deterrent credibility, and its hold over its own population. On every single one of these, the Islamic Republic is in a worse position today than at any point since 1979. So, let’s go through them. Start with the nuclear program — the program that for two decades was the central organizing problem of American and Middle East policy. That program has been set back by years.
Enrichment and reprocessing — gutted. Weaponization sites destroyed. Fordow, the deeply buried facility we were told for years was untouchable — it’s inoperable. Natanz is in ruins, and critically, a generation of senior nuclear weapons scientists has been eliminated. You can rebuild the centrifuge cascade. It is much harder to rebuild human capital. The ballistic missile enterprise is in similar shape. Monthly missile output has collapsed from roughly a hundred per month to almost nothing. Roughly half of the regime’s missile arsenal and launch infrastructure is gone. The IRGC aerospace commander who built that machine over 20 years — he’s dead. Iran’s air defenses have been shattered. American and Israeli fighter jets and drones now operate over Iranian territory with near impunity. Stop and think about that sentence. Five years ago, that wouldn’t have been considered impossible. Today, it’s routine. Now the leadership. The regime has been decapitated. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei — dead.
His top national security advisor, Ali Larijani — dead. Hundreds of senior IRGC intelligence, military, and Basij commanders killed in the campaign. The IRGC commander-in-chief, the Armed Forces Chief of Staff, two successive IRGC intelligence chiefs, and many others. The new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, is badly injured from Israeli strikes. He inherits a hollowed-out regime with no real supreme authority, no charismatic religious legitimacy of his own, and a deeply weakened command structure. He’s presiding over a system that is still searching for its footing. This matters because the Islamic Republic is not just a state. It’s a personalist theocratic system built around the office of the Supreme Leader. Decapitating that office and the security apparatus that protected it is not a tactical achievement. It is structural damage to the regime’s foundations. Iran is alone in its own region. After firing missiles and drones at Gulf countries, those countries are freezing Iranian funds and shutting down the sanctions evasion networks Tehran spent years building.
No Arab capital is coming to the rescue. China and Russia, despite all the talk of a new authoritarian axis, are doing just the bare minimum — selective purchases of discounted oil, some diplomatic cover at the UN, and not a lot more. They’re not going to bleed for the Islamic Republic, and the Islamic Republic now knows it. Though they may help reconstitute the deadly capabilities that the United States and Israel have destroyed — we’re watching that closely, and so is President Trump. The terror network, the so-called axis of resistance, the ring of fire that for years intimidated Israel and the Sunni Arab states — has shattered. Hezbollah and Hamas are heavily degraded. Israel decapitated the Houthi political leadership. What used to be a coordinated network of forward-deployed Iranian power is now a set of weakened, isolated franchises. The Syrian land bridge is severed. Bashar al-Assad, the man Iran propped up at enormous cost in blood and treasure for over a decade, is hiding in Moscow playing video games.
The new government in Damascus is arresting smugglers and publicly declaring that Syria will no longer transit Iranian weapons to Hezbollah. The corridor that took Tehran 20 years to build is closing in front of our eyes, and Lebanon is pivoting West. Israel and Lebanon have opened direct peace talks for the first time since 1983. Beirut now asserts that the Lebanese Armed Forces alone are responsible for national defense. That is a direct repudiation of Hezbollah’s entire reason for existing. The work is not done. The Lebanese government has to follow through on disarming Hezbollah, but the political ground has shifted in a way that would’ve seemed impossible only 18 months ago. And here’s one of the most important points, and I want to dwell on it. Iranian deterrence has been exposed as a bluff. For decades, the conventional wisdom was that Israel could not strike the Islamic Republic directly because Tehran would retaliate massively.
That Iran’s missile arsenal, its proxies, its drones, sleeper cells — all of it added up to a deterrent the West could not afford to test. Well, the West tested it four times: April 2024, October 2024, June 2025, March 2026. Four direct Iranian attacks on Israel. None of them imposed strategic costs. None of them changed Israeli behavior. All of them triggered devastating retaliation, including from the United States. Iran couldn’t even reliably use Syria or Iraq as launchpads. The threat that shaped a generation of Western policy turned out to be, in significant part, a bluff. And once a bluff is called, you cannot uncall it. Tehran’s deterrent capital is spent. Then there’s the Iranian economy, and this is where the war has moved into a different phase. We’ve gone beyond two decades of treasury sanctions to direct military pressure. Marine interdiction. Oil exports reduced to a trickle. Storage capacity for crude is nearing exhaustion.
Iran is literally running out of places to put the oil it can no longer sell. Triple-digit inflation, a currency that’s almost worthless. Steel and petrochemicals — the industrial and defense backbone — battered. Iranian losses from this war: at least $140 billion. That’s close to 40 percent of pre-war GDP. Some credible estimates put it at double that. Inside the country: power shortages, water crises, factory shutdowns, pension unrest, fuel shortages. Bazaar merchants, oil workers, truckers — the regime’s traditional support base — were out on strike in December and January across all 31 provinces. The regime had to slaughter its way out of the biggest challenge to its rule since the revolution itself. And the Hormuz card — the card we were warned about for years — well, Tehran played it, but they played it at the worst possible moment, when the United States had options, instead of when it didn’t. Hormuz disruption that was supposed to be Iran’s ace turned out to be a panic move from a regime that had run out of better ones.
I want to zoom in on something my colleague Miad Malachi and I wrote about in the New York Post just recently. The economic squeeze isn’t a static picture. It has a clock on it, and the clock is ticking against Tehran. Look at Kharg Island. Kharg handles roughly 90 percent of Iran’s crude exports. With the United States blockade in place and Operation Epic Fury and Operation Economic Fury still grinding away, Kharg is days from hitting its onshore storage limit. Tehran has already reactivated retired super tankers as floating storage. But once that fills up, Iran has to start shutting in its own oil wells, and shutting in productive wells isn’t like turning off a tap. You do it badly and you damage the wellhead. You can lose those wells permanently. Before this war, at least a third of Iran’s oil revenue went directly to military salaries and operations — the IRGC, the Basij, the regular armed forces.
That lifeline is choking. The cost of this war to Tehran is running at roughly $435 million every single day in foregone exports and blocked imports. That’s a death spiral on a calendar. And here is the political dimension. The regime spent decades telling its base that the nuclear program was sacred, a matter of national dignity. Now it may actually have to surrender it. In 1988, the then-Supreme Leader, Ruhollah Khomeini, ended the war with Iraq by drinking what he famously called the poison chalice. Today’s leadership in Tehran faces an even more bitter cup, and someone in that fractured post-Khamenei coalition still has to drink it. And here is what too much of the Washington commentariat is getting wrong. They’re treating the midterms as President Trump’s deadline — as if the clock that matters is the American political calendar, not the Iranian economic calendar. That is exactly backwards.
The president has two and a half years left in office — two and a half years of unified executive control, two and a half years of a Congress that, whatever it squabbles about, is not going to legislate this campaign out of existence. Two and a half years is enormous leverage, and more than enough time to consolidate the gains, lock in permanent constraints, and run the regime out of road. Tehran’s clock is measured in weeks of oil storage. Ours is measured in years of presidential authority. Anyone telling you we’re running out of time has the asymmetry exactly upside down. Which brings me to the ceasefire itself, and a piece I recently co-wrote with Ben Cohen. President Trump has now indefinitely extended the ceasefire with Iran. The core issues that triggered the war — permanent constraints on enrichment, verifiable dismantlement of weaponization, caps on missiles, an end to support for proxies, Hormuz reopened on terms that aren’t set by the IRGC — well, none of that is locked in yet. And here’s the question that determines whether the ceasefire is a problem or an opportunity: is it a pause button or a vice grip?
If we treat it as a pause button — if Washington uses the quiet to relax sanctions, ease the blockade, let the political pressure off Tehran in exchange for talks — then yes, the ceasefire becomes the regime’s lifeline. Pauses don’t freeze the regime in amber. Pauses are when the regime breathes. Tehran would use every quiet day to dig in, divide us, and regenerate: relocate enriched material, harden Pickaxe Mountain, peel Europe and the Gulf States off the coalition, rebuild missile lines, replace lost commanders. That version is a risky bet. But there is another version, and it is the one this administration is actually pursuing — the ceasefire as a vice grip. The blockade stays on. Operation Epic Fury and Operation Economic Fury keep grinding. Treasury keeps designating. The military stays posted to resume strikes within hours, and we tell Tehran very clearly: the bombs have stopped for now, but nothing else has. The economic war continues. The diplomatic isolation continues. The internal pressure continues. That is the ceasefire as a closing move. It lets the economic war do the work the bombs already started. It denies the regime the one thing a pause is supposed to give it: relief.
The Iranian counterproposal so far — lift sanctions first, end the blockade first, guarantee no further attacks first — is not a negotiation; it’s a stalling tactic. We’ve seen this movie. It was called the JCPOA, the Obama Deal of 2015. The right response is not to give them what they want for free. It’s to keep the vice tight. And here is the underlying logic: the ceasefire is only as good as the willingness to end it. The leverage that brought Tehran to the table was the credible threat that the bombs would resume tomorrow. As long as that military threat stays credible, the vice grip works. The moment Tehran believes we’ve permanently taken military force off the table, the vice loosens. The test of this administration over the next two years is not whether it talks. It’s whether it stays ready to impose devastating economic damage and to return to military operations. I want to spend a minute on something that we don’t talk about enough on the show, because the information blackout inside Iran makes it hard to report with the granularity it deserves. But it is, in many ways, the whole point.

Palestinian ‘pay to slay’ shows why Trump’s 20-point plan for Gaza is needed
Natalie Ecanow/Washington Examiner/May 08/2026
President Donald Trump is known for forging his own foreign policy path, and Gaza is no different. Whereas the previous administration hoped that a “revitalized” Palestinian Authority would take over the Strip, the Trump administration pumped the brakes. A U.S. State Department report published last week vindicates that decision.
Under U.S. law, Washington withholds certain assistance from Ramallah if the State Department is unable to certify that the PA has “terminated payments for acts of terrorism.” Ramallah has long provided monthly salaries and other benefits to Palestinians currently or previously imprisoned in Israel for “participating in the struggle against the occupation.” Families of prisoners or terrorists killed in the act are also eligible for welfare. This program is colloquially known as “pay-to-slay.” PA President Mahmoud Abbas declared an end to the program in February 2025, but evidently, it hasn’t stopped.
The State Department took the atypical step last week of publicizing its report to Congress, which covers September 2025 to February 2026. The content is disconcerting, if not predictable. According to the department, the PA “provided $156 million in payments and benefits to Palestinian terrorists and their families” in 2025. PA Finance Minister Estephan Salameh affirmed in February 2026 that Ramallah continues to provide a “[60%] rate of [PA public employee] salaries” and has not “abandoned any Palestinian resident, whether they are prisoners or families of Martyrs and wounded.”
Dozens of jailed terrorists released in exchange for Israeli hostages are slated to receive monthly payments in excess of $1,000. Ramallah has set the minimum monthly wage at roughly $500, which means that violence is often a lucrative business.
Pay-for-slay is a major reason why the Israeli government has long said that it does not want the PA to enter postwar Gaza. Compounding the challenge is the fact that the PA has long been mired in corruption and mismanagement, epitomized by the 90-year-old Abbas who is currently serving his 21st year of a four-year presidential term.
Municipal elections held on April 25 in the West Bank and Deir el-Balah, Gaza — the first elections of any kind in the Strip since 2006 — compound the picture. Fatah, the PA’s dominant faction, ran uncontested in several races and a recent decree requiring candidates to endorse the Palestinian Liberation Organization’s “program,” which formally renounces violence and recognizes the State of Israel, boxed Hamas and other terrorist groups out of the race.
In Gaza, where the PA has had no presence since 2007, Fatah-backed candidates won six out of 15 seats on Deir el-Balah’s municipal council, although voter turnout there was below 25%. Moreover, Hamas forces reportedly secured Gaza’s polling stations, demonstrating that the terrorist group remains armed and in charge.
Nevertheless, Fatah declared a “sweeping victory” when the returns came in.
The only motion these results should stir in Washington is doubling down on Trump’s 20-point plan for Gaza, which excludes the PA and instead calls for a “technocratic, apolitical Palestinian committee” to oversee Gaza until “the Palestinian Authority has completed its reform program.” Washington launched the so-called National Committee for the Administration of Gaza in January as part of the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire.
The presence of armed Hamas guards at polling stations in Gaza also points to the continued challenge of disarming Hamas. Without disarmament, all progress toward the goals of the 20-point plan remains “in question,” Secretary of State Marco Rubio explained on April 27. No committee can govern in a technocratic or apolitical manner if it has no forces of its own and a terrorist organization rules the streets.
Thus, Washington must hold firm on Hamas disarmament while resisting any pressure to prematurely welcome the PA into Gaza. Moving to bring the PA back into the fold would reward a faction that the State Department made abundantly clear has yet to earn it. Instead, the Trump administration should continue to empower the NCAG while pressing the PA to pursue meaningful reform.
The 20-point plan has made “substantial progress,” according to former U.K. Prime Minister Tony Blair, who sits on the executive board of the Gaza Board of Peace. Now is no time for the Trump administration to back down. On the contrary, the administration should turn up the pressure on Hamas to disarm. For, as Blair noted, only if Hamas surrenders its weapons will the policies that have “made daily life for Gaza people so difficult” start to reverse.
**Natalie Ecanow is a senior research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Follow Natalie on X @NatalieEcanow. Follow FDD on X @FDD. FDD is a Washington, D.C.-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on foreign policy and national security.
Look at what is happening inside the country right now. Decapitated leadership at the top, an economy collapsing in the middle, and ordinary Iranians — bazaar merchants, oil workers, truckers, pensioners — they’ve been out on the streets, and they certainly will return to the streets again. There’ve been strikes in all 31 provinces. There are fuel shortages, there are power cuts, there are water shortages, a currency that won’t buy bread. That combination — military decapitation, economic collapse, and popular unrest hitting at the same time — is not an accident. That is exactly the combination the maximum pressure strategy was designed to produce. And it is exactly the combination that the maximum support strategy — supporting the Iranian people against the regime that oppresses them — was designed to amplify. Maximum pressure was never just sanctions for the sake of sanctions. The whole theory was that personalist authoritarian regimes are most vulnerable when stress hits multiple load-bearing pillars at once. Take out the security apparatus on top, you sever the regime’s ability to project force. Crater the economy in the middle, you sever its ability to buy loyalty. Wake up the street at the bottom, you remove the regime’s claim to legitimacy.
Any one of those alone, the Islamic Republic has survived before. All three at once is something it has never faced. That is what we mean when we say maximum fracture. That would be the doctrine paying off. And here is where American policy has to be smart. The easy mistake from here is to think the military and economic campaign is the whole story and that the Iranian people are bystanders. They are not. They are the decisive variable. 47 years of repression, four decades of failed promises, a generation of young Iranians who have lost faith in this system — that is the deeper source of the regime’s weakness, and the one thing Khamenei’s successors cannot bomb their way out of. Restore Iranians’ access to the open internet. Sanction the Chinese and European firms selling Tehran the surveillance apparatus it uses to crush dissent. Amplify Iranian voices so that people inside the country know the world is watching, the regime is exposed, and that they are not alone. That costs a fraction of a single B-2 sortie, and it targets exactly the legitimacy the regime cannot rebuild. Maximum pressure plus maximum support — that is what produces maximum fracture. And maximum fracture is what turns the strategic defeat into the end of the regime.
Step back for a second and compare all of this to where we were headed before this war. Before all of this: nuclear-armed ICBMs on the horizon, 10,000 ballistic missiles, a Chinese- and Russian-built military, hundreds of thousands of attack drones, a fully operational terror network running from Yemen to Lebanon to Gaza to Iraq, hundreds of billions of dollars in sanctions relief flowing in, hardening the economy. That was the trajectory. That was where the 2015 nuclear deal was taking us — with sunset clauses on enrichment and reprocessing and no missile restrictions that would have given Tehran a clear runway to a nuclear weapon and ICBMs by the early 2030s. That trajectory is gone. President Trump’s withdrawal from that flawed deal in his first term, and the maximum pressure campaign that followed, set the conditions. The military campaign of the last 14 months consolidated them. Without the first decision, the second one would not have been possible.
Now, none of this means the job is done. I want to be very clear about that. The challenges that remain are real. The battle of Hormuz is not over. The Houthis continue to threaten Red Sea shipping. There is enriched material we cannot fully account for. The deeply buried Fordow Mountain facility remains a serious concern. The regime continues to repress its own people. There is a real risk of nuclear and missile reconstitution if we take our eyes off the ball. There is a real risk of a fatally flawed deal — a 2015 redux — if Western negotiators get tired. And honestly, the biggest single risk in my mind is political, and not the way those who oppose the war frame it. The risk is not that we keep going. The risk is that we lose nerve. A future president in 2029 or beyond who simply gives up, or this president, this year, talked into believing the ceasefire is good enough and walking away with a deal that locks in less than the moment makes possible. That would be the squander. The fundamentals don’t require it.
The fundamentals are with us, not against us. Two and a half years of presidential authority, a regime running out of money, leaders, and time, a population that the regime can no longer count on — that is not a position of weakness. That is the strongest hand any American administration has ever had against the Islamic Republic of Iran. But step back, look at the strategic picture. It is extraordinary. For those of us who have spent decades countering this regime — its terrorism, its proxies, its nuclear ambitions, its hostage-taking, its repression of its own people — it is genuinely hard to fully comprehend how much has been achieved. The Islamic Republic has suffered a strategic defeat. Tehran’s escape routes are closing. Its leadership is decapitated. Its economy is in collapse. Its people have been on the streets and will come to the streets again. The clock is ticking on its oil, on its money, on its political coalition. We have over two years of presidential authority, a regime in maximum fracture, and a coalition that is holding.
The pieces are in place to turn this defeat into a durable victory — or to squander it at the negotiating table, the way leverage against this regime has been squandered so many times before. The question is whether we have the discipline to use this ceasefire as a vice grip and not a pause button. The patience to let the economic war do its work. The willingness to resort again to major military operations to severely degrade what remains. And the moral clarity to stand with the Iranian people while their regime falls apart around them. That choice is in front of us now. I’m Mark Dubowitz. This has been The Iran Breakdown. I’ll see you next week when we break it down all over again.

Syria’s Accommodation of Foreign Jihadists Backfires
Ahmad Sharawi/FDD-Policy Brief/May 08/2026
The Syrian government’s effort to integrate foreign fighters into its armed forces may be unraveling.
On May 5, Syrian authorities arrested 16 Uzbek fighters following a standoff with armed members of the Uzbek community in the northwestern province of Idlib. The confrontation erupted after Syrian security forces detained an Uzbek fighter in the Syrian army for looting, prompting dozens of Uzbek militants to surround the security headquarters in Idlib. Clashes also erupted between government forces and Uzbek fighters in the Idlib village of Kafraya. Uzbek jihadists, most notably members of Katibat al-Tawhid wal-Jihad (Battalion of Monotheism and Jihad), a U.S.-designated terrorist organization, have preserved their extremist affiliations and demonstrated questionable loyalty despite the accommodating stance of the government in Damascus.
Most of the foreign fighters were part of the jihadist coalition under the leadership of Ahmad al-Sharaa that ousted the Bashar al-Assad regime. Now president, Sharaa previously led Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a force that emerged from al-Qaeda’s branch in Syria. After taking power, Sharaa rapidly integrated thousands of foreign fighters into the country’s new armed forces. Syrian defense ministry sources told Reuters last year that Sharaa defended this approach to Western skeptics on the grounds that excluding the foreign fighters would drive them back to al-Qaeda or the Islamic State.
Idlib Clashes Not a One-Off
The showdown in Idlib was only one of many clashes between the state and foreign jihadists. In October 2025, Syrian government forces launched an operation in the Harem camp near Idlib against foreign jihadists from Firqat al-Ghuraba (Foreigners Brigade), led by Omar Omsen, a U.S.-designated terrorist wanted by France for recruiting French nationals to fight in Syria. The clashes reportedly erupted after members of the group kidnapped a French girl in the camp and planned to extort her mother, which prompted Syrian forces to intervene. In response, Omsen called on foreign fighters across Syria to mobilize against the government.
Firqat al-Ghuraba has established a parallel policing system within its camp, holding trials and issuing sentences outside the authority of the Syrian state.
U.S.-Designated Terrorist Groups Remain in Syrian Army
The Syrian government originally sought to institutionalize the foreign groups by integrating segments of them into the military and security apparatus in an attempt to impose greater discipline through state control.
However, the ideological extremism of some of these factions — and their alleged involvement in massacres against religious minorities — has exposed the serious risks of this policy.
For example, Damascus integrated the Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP), a Uyghur jihadist group, into the Syrian army’s 84th Division, a unit reportedly composed largely of foreign fighters. TIP maintained longstanding ties to al-Qaeda, fighting alongside the group in Afghanistan before 2001, while its current emir, Abdul Haq al-Turkistani, sits on al-Qaeda’s Shura Council. In 2015, TIP fighters desecrated churches in Jisr al-Shughur in Idlib.
Another faction integrated into the 84th Division is Liwa al-Muhajireen wal-Ansar (Brigade of Emigrants and Supporters), a U.S.-designated Salafi-jihadist group comprising fighters from Arab countries as well as the North Caucasus. Sharaa promoted to the rank of colonel its commander, Dhu al-Qarnayn Zanour Abdul Hameed, who now serves as a commander within the 84th Division.
U.S. Should Use Leverage of Review Process To Press for Change
“Tell all foreign terrorists to leave Syria,” the White House press secretary posted last year following President Donald Trump’s first meeting with Sharaa. Trump had praised Sharaa and committed to lifting sanctions on Syria to facilitate its recovery. Trump demanded no formal concessions in return, but the White House made clear its reservations about Syria integrating jihadists.
Despite these concerns, Washington has never made progress in U.S.-Syrian relations conditional on Sharaa addressing the problem. The United States still retains leverage through Syria’s designation since 1979 as a State Sponsor of Terrorism (SST), a status Washington has been reviewing since December 2025. The United States should use the leverage provided by the SST review process to pressure Damascus to remove or demote foreign fighters within its security forces, particularly members of U.S.-designated terrorist organizations serving in the Syrian army. Additionally, Washington should press Damascus to refrain from deploying these factions to sensitive areas where sectarian tensions remain acute.
*Ahmad Sharawi is a senior research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD). For more analysis from Ahmad and FDD, please subscribe HERE. Follow FDD on X @FDD. Follow Ahmad on X @AhmadA_Sharawi. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

Iran’s War in Iraq Reveals Militias’ Expanding Grip
Baghdad, London: Ali Saray/Asharq Al-Awsat/8 May 2026
“If you must fall, be a meteor.” The phrase was written on a mural inside Baghdad’s Green Zone. Beside it was a drawing of faceless fighters in helmets, carrying rifles. They looked ready to fight on several fronts. Senior officials and officers in Baghdad likely pass the mural on their way to government offices, including leaders of factions within the Popular Mobilization Forces. Nearly two months after the US-Iranian war, it is clear that many of them do not want to become falling meteors. A day before the war, an Asharq Al-Awsat correspondent was trying to conduct interviews in Baghdad. The Iraqi officials they met were tied up in “emergency” meetings. One said employees at Iraq’s Ministry of Migration had discussed a “possible alert,” which he considered “a very worrying signal.”Baghdad awoke on the morning of February 28, 2026, to the sound of strikes in Tehran. By evening, we were told that a picture of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s body had reached the phones of leaders in the Coordination Framework hours before US President Donald Trump announced his death. Then began one of the strangest nights the Iraqi capital had seen. In Baghdad, two kinds of Tehran’s allies appeared to stand on opposite sides. They seemed to be preparing to settle scores that had remained dormant for years, or bracing for another rebirth, one that has repeated itself again and again since 2003.
“Do these people really follow Khamenei?”
The second day of the war. The Green Zone was on high alert. Streets were closed, barriers and checkpoints were in place, and security forces inspected those without permits to enter the government district. No curfew had been declared, but in practice, people were moving through an undeclared one.
That evening, Asaib Ahl al Haq, led by Qais al Khazali, held a mourning gathering for Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Dozens gathered near Jumhuriya Bridge in central Baghdad. They arrived with a convoy of Chevrolet Tahoe vehicles, a model favored by many politicians, officials and leaders of armed groups. The demonstrators carried banners mourning Khamenei beneath the historic Freedom Monument, protected by a ring of security forces. There was no friction.
Traffic on the bridge remained normal. Cars moved smoothly toward the eastern entrance of the Green Zone, except for a small cluster of reporters from partisan channels funded by factions with influence in the government. They were interviewing “mourners over Khamenei’s killing.” It was a quiet show of solidarity. Before long, it dispersed. In 2019, the same scene was bloody. Hundreds of young men were killed or wounded after taking part in almost daily protests against corruption and Iranian influence in Baghdad, under the slogan, “Iran out, out.” Seven years and 40 days of war later, their voices are no longer heard. Some have fully joined parties in the ruling coalition. Four kilometers from the silent mourning gathering, the scene at the Suspension Bridge, leading to the western entrance of the Green Zone, was violent and loud. Dozens pushed toward security barriers without hesitation. They wanted to reach the US embassy. Asharq Al-Awsat’s correspondent spotted young men crying bitterly, staring at passersby and scrutinizing those who did not appear sad, as if asking: “How can you not grieve?”
At first, the protest looked improvised. The faces were as frightened as they were angry. Some hurled stones at security forces blocking the bridge entrance with steel barriers and large vehicles fitted with water cannons. Others carried Iranian flags and chanted against Trump, “the killer of the Leader.”
A large bulldozer forced its way through the crowd toward the barrier, followed by a black cloud, a wave of dust and masked men carrying sticks. Live fire and tear gas followed. The bulldozer stopped at a concrete barrier. Its engine failed before it could breach the security fortification, and the chants grew louder.The correspondent asked one protester what he would do if the road to the US embassy were open. “I don’t know. It doesn’t matter. Even if I throw myself at a tank,” he said. He seemed surprised by the question and tried to make me understand: “They killed our leader. He is our guardian. Do you know what that means?” By night, authorities said dozens had been wounded on both sides, protesters and security forces. The fact is, days earlier, they had all been on the same side, government and factions alike. The protesters at both bridges had also been in the same trench before Khamenei’s killing.
In the days that followed, the “factions,” the “resistance,” and the Popular Mobilization Forces opened the roads and skies to drones and US strikes. Apart from these two kinds of Iran’s allies, who appeared to dominate Baghdad’s public space, a segment of Iraqi Shiites saw the war as a chance to criticize Iranian influence in the country. But “a campaign of intimidation silenced them,” according to activists we spoke to. During the war, people close to Iran incited action against its opponents in Iraq. Images of complaints against them spread on social media. Some were arrested by security forces, but the courts have not yet acted on the complaints. Bloggers also posted pictures of influencers under the headline, “Your day of reckoning will come.”
On the ground, armed groups operating under the umbrella of what is known as the Islamic Resistance in Iraq launched dozens of attacks from the first hours after Khamenei’s killing.
The use of the term “resistance” was one of the methods the Revolutionary Guard and Iraqi factions used to conceal the original perpetrators. Many faction leaders, meanwhile, found themselves walking a fine line during the war, after long pledging to integrate into the state and keep weapons in its hands.
A leader in an armed faction said he was “not sure throughout the weeks of the war on Iran whether his armed followers had taken part in attacks on the Americans and on the Kurdistan Region.” It is not certain that he truly does not know.
In interviews with Iraqi and Western security and political figures, Asharq Al-Awsat sought to understand how the leaders of armed factions in Iraq, and, behind them, the Revolutionary Guard, manage the smooth movement of these groups between government institutions and militias, and how the war exposed dark zones of Iranian influence in the country. There are different assumptions about the success of this process. But the most likely one is that Iran holds the “spinal cord” connecting everyone, those inside the government and the armed groups outside its authority. Between them lies a bitter, and possibly deadly, struggle over resources and influence.
Militias as “fiefdoms”
The car moves slowly along the bank of a small river in one of the vast fields south of Baghdad. As far as the eye can see, piles of bricks and building materials are scattered across the countryside.
For decades, residents here grew grains and vegetables and sold their crops to the government or local markets. Some had benefited from agricultural reform programs dating back to the 1960s, before those programs deteriorated during the Iraq-Iran war in the 1980s and gradually disappeared after the US invasion in 2003. A 70-year-old notable from southern Baghdad describes the fields today: “It is as if we are being violently dragged back to the era of feudal estates. There is an advance by the new feudal lords. The issue is not just a dispute over ownership, but an invisible authority controlling resources.”
The man avoids giving details about how he lost his land about seven years ago, a vast area on the road between Baghdad and Babil to the south. But sources describe what happened as “a maze of multiple fraudulent operations protected by a government bureaucracy that armed factions have skillfully penetrated.
“These lands are a jungle of investments, in whose shadows facilities belonging to armed groups disappear,” the man said. “I know them. They will seem extremely friendly to you, but with the latest war, they became very tense and suspicious.”
The factions’ strategy of taking over these lands appears to go beyond being a “goose that lays golden eggs,” as two officials, one former and one current, in Iraq’s Ministry of Agriculture put it. In the long run, it is “a continuous swallowing of geography in favor of Iran’s political influence.”
A Shiite leader in one of the factions said, “Every inch Hezbollah loses in southern Lebanon is compensated by Iran with kilometers in Iraq.”
But the factions collide as they advance into these lands. Friction often turns into clashes. In July 2025, a policeman, a civilian, and a member of Kataib Hezbollah were killed after a violent confrontation between a government force and the faction, which had stormed Baghdad’s Agriculture Directorate in the Dora area of southern Baghdad to prevent the appointment of a new director. In reality, the Shiite leader said, the operation was a cover for “recycling influence among armed groups.”
After the clashes, the government said the official in charge of regulating agricultural land contracts was involved, before his dismissal, in “forging contracts that led to the seizure of agricultural land from its rightful owners.”
The government’s account appears coherent, but it does not tell the whole story. Several government and factional sources say the Agriculture Directorate clashes were only the latest episode in political operations that had begun months earlier to change factional influence over these lands. One source said: “It is simply the management of the conflict over resources among the militias.”This was not the first such friction in recent years. Since 2020, the Popular Mobilization Forces Security Directorate, the official umbrella for all armed factions in Iraq, has arrested militia leaders who once played a role in fighting ISIS and closed their offices in Baghdad. This happened with Saraya Taliat al Khorasani, led by Ali al Yasiri and his deputy Hamid al Jazairi, as well as the Mukhtar Army faction led by Wathiq al Battat.
Before them came the arrest of Hamza al-Shammari, who had been a central figure in tourism activity between Baghdad and Beirut and was accused of money smuggling and drug trafficking. Several sources spoke of his close ties to Iraqi militias.
Incidents recorded as “the burning of poultry farms in Kut, a hospital in Babil, restaurants in Baghdad, and small companies in Basra” were in fact side effects of friction among armed groups, according to accounts from a security officer, a local official, and a member of an armed faction.
A Shiite leader close to the factions said: “Some armed groups operate as financial portfolios for the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, but when they obtain funds exceeding the share of the original sponsor, they are punished and removed from the game.”
US analyst Nick Gazette said clashes or arrests that surface from time to time among Iraqi militias are due to one of two things: a feverish struggle over resources, or a punishment carried out by the Revolutionary Guard against leaders or individuals who have broken away from its obedience.
Managing expansion
A number of these group leaders are seen as rebels against the Revolutionary Guard. The closest example often used to refer to them is Aws al-Khafaji, who leads the Abu Fadl al-Abbas faction. He took part in battles against ISIS in the provinces of Salahuddin and Anbar, but “his tongue became harsh toward Tehran.”A force from the Popular Mobilization Forces Security Directorate arrested Khafaji in July 2019 and closed one of his headquarters in central Baghdad on the grounds that it was “fake.”Four months later, he was released and said the reason for his arrest was his criticism of the Iranian project in Iraq and his opposition to the killing of young protesters in October 2019. Hisham Dawoud, a researcher at the French National Center for Scientific Research, tends to see the repeated friction among the factions not merely as incidental struggles over influence or resources. At its core, he says, it reflects deep internal shifts in the structure of these forces and their transition from a phase of “formation” to one of “repositioning” inside the state and society. But he stresses that “the first thing that must be established is that these factions, especially those loyal to Iran, do not operate in a vacuum and do not have absolute freedom to shape reality according to their will.”Sajjad Salem, a former member of parliament, says the assumption that helps explain factional friction lies in understanding the depth of the struggle over economic resources. Influence is not only about the leaders of these groups, but also about a broad network operating beneath them, including social and tribal notables, traders, and an army of mid-level public sector employees. All of them have shifting interests, “and whenever they intersect, a spark of violence flashes. Usually, the Revolutionary Guard resolves the disputes.”
Just as it regulates the rhythm of competition, the Revolutionary Guard reaps the rewards of militia expansion on Iraqi territory. The “financial portfolios” grow as key resources for Iran, while military facilities needed for regional expansion are built simultaneously.
These areas were essential for establishing “training camps that hosted fighters of different nationalities from countries in the Axis of Resistance in recent years, along with missile and drone warehouses, private prisons, interrogation centers for opponents of Iran, and operational command centers,” according to leaders in two armed groups.
One of the two men said: “Every military facility was surrounded by fields, investment projects, and tourist resorts where the community of faction members and multiple circles of beneficiaries around them were active.”
In the latest war, the field advantage of this geographic expansion was exposed. Facilities were used to launch rocket or drone attacks from fields in southern and western Iraq, in areas near the border strip with Gulf Arab states that were hit by dozens of drone and missile attacks.
Around Baghdad, nearby sites were used to attack U.S. targets inside the capital. In the north, attacks were launched from Nineveh and Kirkuk, near targets in the Kurdistan Region.
The life of the factions, a history of integration
The second week of the war. Lawmakers, government officials and officers from various security agencies were joining mourning gatherings and symbolic funerals for Khamenei, who had still not been buried in his own country. Most likely, the occasion provided the time and place for rivals to meet without friction, a truce between two types of allies, one integrated into the state and another waiting in the “resistance.” In the end, everyone seemed to be in the same boat.
The gray zone disappeared from Iraq’s public space. Many people were no longer able to express middle-ground views. A well-known blogger on X told me he had attended a session organized by the Iranian embassy in Baghdad and heard an Iranian diplomat reprimand an Iraqi activist for not writing anything “in defense of Iran.”
Not far from this climate was what happened to Hadi al-Amiri, head of the Badr Organization, when members of a tribe in southern Iraq, rumored to have organic ties to armed factions and to be part of the network of loyalty to the Iranian supreme leader, attacked him.
The Shiite factions that had begun integrating into politics do not appear to enjoy Iran’s approval. Iranian anger at them grew as reciprocal strikes escalated during the war. On March 17, 2026, Mohammad Asad Qasir, director of the Iranian supreme leader’s office in Lebanon, criticized “the hesitant positions of Coordination Framework leaders regarding support for the Islamic Republic of Iran.”In the November 2025 elections, representatives of armed factions won more than 100 seats in parliament, according to estimates circulating in local media. Since then, the fires of government formation have been burning. Most factions have been fighting over their shares in ministries, and their voices are decisive in determining the identity of the candidate to head the government.
A Shiite leader said: “The representatives of the factions do not monopolize political decision-making inside the Coordination Framework, but they can break the will of any party that does not represent their interests.”The war coincided with the broadest process of integrating armed factions into official state institutions, both executive and legislative, that Iraq has seen since the fall of Saddam Hussein’s regime in 2003. The same thing has long happened at least once every five years, but with less intensity. A Shiite official in the National Alliance, the former umbrella that formed the two governments of Nouri al-Maliki, says the state is the natural endpoint for resistance groups, “not necessarily in implementation of the desire of the Americans, who are bothered by uncontrolled weapons.” He adds: “It began with the Americans and ended with us. We are partners in this unintentionally.”
The first process of integrating militias into the state dates back to June 2004, when Paul Bremer, the US “civilian” administrator of Iraq at the time, issued Order 91, which allowed militias to merge into the state under the heading of banning them. The order created what can be seen as the founding moment of the “gray zone” in which Iranian influence flourished in later years. The order treated militias as if they were security companies, according to a retired Interior Ministry officer who now lives abroad. “The faction would move into the ministries as if it had signed an investment contract, but in essence it was a political penetration,” he says.
Secrets of the integration game
With every wave of integration, new arms emerge outside the official framework, allowing the cycle of redistribution of influence between the institutional inside and the armed outside to continue, accompanied by friction that reflects a competitive growth process.
Dawoud explains that “some of these factions formed directly after 2003, while another section emerged through successive splits within the Sadrist movement, led by Muqtada al Sadr, which in its early days represented a broad incubator for differing currents before breaking apart into independent and hostile formations.”Between 2005 and 2010, the first institutional penetration occurred, when groups such as the Badr Organization and the Mahdi Army, affiliated with the Sadrist movement, entered the Interior Ministry and law enforcement agencies, in parallel with the rise of their political influence. At that stage, the scene was not limited to ideological factions. Local groups also emerged, Dawoud says, “closer to war traders, born of social transformations in which tribal solidarity overlapped with the informal economy, producing formations with a mafia-like character.”
The features of a “state within the state” began to appear in the period before ISIS occupied a third of Iraq. Nouri al-Maliki, then prime minister, had reached an agreement with Washington for the withdrawal of its forces, and the factions began a new phase of activity, including Asaib Ahl al Haq, while also forming new armed wings.
Dawoud points to a third type of faction that “emerged after the US withdrawal, not before it, and arose with direct support and funding from the state, especially amid the rise in sectarian tensions between 2011 and 2014 and alongside the Syrian crisis.”
He explains that “the specificity of these factions is that they were not formed outside the state, but alongside it, and fed from the beginning on its resources, making them more tied to the logic of rent and less independent in terms of decision-making.”
The major legalization came in the period from 2014 to 2017, when the war against ISIS allowed the victors, who had made thousands of sacrifices to retake territory, to obtain legal integration and unprecedented political and social recognition, despite violations that accompanied the operations of these factions. Dawoud reinforces this picture by saying that this stage “represented a transition to symbolic and material hegemony, based on the factions’ role in saving the state, especially through the Popular Mobilization Forces, which granted them double legitimacy.”
In recent years, armed factions have expanded into almost every aspect of the state. Their influence has become decisive in ministries and border crossings. From under their umbrella have come commercial contracts, investments and local financing networks. The number of affiliates has swollen to unprecedented levels, Dawoud notes, “turning them into a social and economic force, not merely a military formation.”
Many supporters of the Coordination Framework say that talk of armed groups’ influence inside the state is “exaggeration produced by regional narratives.” But the latest war between the United States and Iran erased the boundaries separating militias from the state.
Former lawmaker Salem said: “The militias are the ones ruling Iraq. This is a basic principle of Iranian influence, even if the prime minister is a figure accepted internationally and regionally.”In the end, the factions will appear to have rolled like a small snowball inside the state 20 years ago, growing larger each time they integrated into it. From Salem’s perspective, what happened proves the error of the American view “that granting power can tame the factions’ behavior and limit Iranian influence.”This view reached an advanced stage with the arrival of Mohammed Shia al-Sudani as Iraq’s prime minister in 2022, when “Washington imagined that Baghdad would carry out a soft domestication of uncontrolled weapons inside the state,” according to a former government official. The integration of Iraqi factions into the state became the Revolutionary Guard’s “success story” in Baghdad. Gazette believes “Iraq is the ideal environment for the emergence of factions, and perhaps an ideal opportunity for the Revolutionary Guard, especially with their integration into Iraqi state institutions.”According to Gazette, the Revolutionary Guard is effectively “preparing a cadre of state employees ideologically before integrating them into public life inside Iraqi state institutions, ensuring near absolute loyalty on ideological and material grounds as well.”Dawoud says: “In this context, Sudani’s rise can be understood as an expression of the factional-political balance. Networks of influence and financial capacity to absorb the demands of factions with overlapping interests.”These interests “sometimes send bags of money to those objecting to the balance deal, even if they are in Tehran,” according to a Shiite leader.
Changing skins, more gains?
Throughout the weeks of war, the Green Zone came under hundreds of rocket and drone attacks, most of them targeting the US embassy and government facilities. While Washington had expected Sudani’s government to preserve the usual rules of engagement during the 12-day war in July 2025, the relationship between them broke against the hard rock of the factions. This war helped remove Iraqi ambiguity over groups outside the state, because they are positioned inside it. For months, Sudani had been struggling to secure a second term in office, relying on a parliamentary bloc that won about 45 seats in the latest legislative elections, more than half of them held by armed factions loyal to Iran. Sudani leads the Reconstruction and Development bloc, the biggest Shiite winner, an uneven alliance that includes parties and armed groups. Among them are Faleh al-Fayyad, who heads the Popular Mobilization Forces Authority, Ahmed al-Asadi, commander of Kataib Jund al-Imam, and Haider al-Gharawi, commander of the Ansar Allah al Awfiya militia. They have come to be seen as part of Iran’s striking force that carried out attacks in Iraq during the war. How do these factions integrate into government institutions while simultaneously carrying out attacks against their will? There are different explanations, but the result is one. In the testimony of a former Iraqi government official, a government force arrested a small cell of armed men specialized in installing and launching drones shortly after they carried out an attack on the US embassy. During the investigation, the leader of one faction submitted a “strange request” to the government: “I need information about one member of the cell. He is a member of my faction, but I did not assign him this mission.”In Iraq, this was one of the riddles invented by the country’s Shiite groups. There is a political and economic structure for the armed faction that integrates into the state, while the combat elite remains outside the state, “resisting the state itself.”The initial understanding, according to overlapping sources, was that the Revolutionary Guard forms a “striking force of elite fighters belonging to multiple factions who work under its command and carry out attacks without referring back to local leaders.” But the picture closer to reality is that Iranian officers, especially those active in the regional Quds Force, manage special groups inside each faction. Salem agrees with this view. He says: “Iran deals with each Iraqi militia separately. Inside each of them are groups that follow Iran, not their local commander.” He adds: “Iran deals with Hezbollah in Lebanon or the Houthis in Yemen as one scene in a centralized way. But in Iraq, influence is managed by fragmentation.”In April 2025, Shiite groups said the Revolutionary Guard had asked them to “do what is necessary” to avoid conflict with the United States, including handing over their heavy weapons. In March 2026, other groups said they had agreed to a truce that included halting attacks on the US embassy. In fact, with special groups inside these factions that hierarchically follow the Revolutionary Guard, faction leaders can conclude agreements that include handing over weapons, halting attacks and reaping their political gains, without that meaning anything on the ground. One cannot overlook the US Treasury Department sanctions in mid-April, when it accused Asaib Ahl al-Haq of using Iranian drones to attack US forces in northern Iraq through a faction leader named Safaa Adnan. Since his strong participation in Mohammed Shia al Sudani’s government, Qais al Khazali has been trying to change his political language, suggesting he can also change his essence. But “to what extent can the process be considered more than a change of skin?” said a former US State Department official who had been interested in following “the striking transformations in the career of the man who split from Muqtada al-Sadr’s movement in 2006.”
The day after the war in Iraq
Since the announcement of a ceasefire and the faltering negotiations between Washington and Tehran, the Americans have been exerting harsh pressure to change the essence of rule in Baghdad. But Salem believes the war showed “who actually rules Baghdad,” referring to the factions. Whatever the outcome of the talks in Islamabad, he says, “Tehran has won Baghdad completely.”Still, Dawoud imagines the “day after” the war, if the influence of factional forces is strengthened, as one in which Iraq’s central state “will not head toward total collapse, nor toward firm cohesion, but toward a transitional model of a central state that monopolizes rent, while in practice it is distributed among multiple networks of influence.” Pressuring American messages have forced Shiite parties onto calculated paths in forming the new government and are pushing toward winning the battle with the Iranians by neutralizing the Popular Mobilization Forces from the ruling institution. But Tehran has so far shown strong resistance. This is the real test for the leaders of the Coordination Framework. They are reaching a crossroads between protecting their growing influence within a new deal not far from regional changes, or protecting weapons as the means to reap new gains. Gazette suggests a classical model, when American militias that emerged during the War of Independence in 1776 became the US National Guard. But he finds it difficult to apply this comparison to Iraq because of “the ideological narrative of Shiite groups.”
Because “ideology is not everything in Iraq,” as a senior political official in the Coordination Framework says, the possible transformation of Popular Mobilization Forces groups would be a hybrid of interest and loyalty. Dawoud says: “The shape of the coming state will not be a post-militia state, but a state redefining itself by managing the space of the factions, not by eliminating them, inside the political system.”In Baghdad, the ruling coalition is seen as an adversary that never stops fighting, refuses to disarm, and seeks to strike political deals with its surroundings, reflecting the broader picture in the region: neither war nor peace between the United States and Iran. The soldiers in the Green Zone mural of the “inevitable fall of meteors” will seem like an expressionist painting of the Coordination Framework leaders, carrying rifles to protect their gains, but with no intention of firing.

Iran War: Cup Moving Toward the Lip?
Amir Taheri/Asharq Al Awsat/8 May 2026
Is the war between Iran and the US-Israel tandem over bar the shouting?
Even a week ago, the question might have sounded fanciful as President Donald Trump was still threatening to wipe Iran off the map.
Now, however, he is talking of “progress” towards a deal confirming what he and his aides including Secretary of State Marco Rubio and War Secretary Pete Hegseth present as the end of military engagement.
Several new developments may have contributed to this new optimistic vision.
The first is that Israel, the initial architect of the war, has been excluded from the process of shaping its end. That gives the US a free hand in seeking a deal because Trump, unlike Israeli Premier Benjamin Netanyahu, was never seeking regime change in Tehran let alone the disintegration of Iran as a nation-state.
Trump wanted to flex America’s military muscles and show everyone what its gigantic war machine can do thousands of miles away from home.
More than 30 years ago, Michael Ledeen, then a prominent Republican political guru, suggested that “every 10 years or so, the US needs to pick some crappy little country and throw it against the wall to show the world we mean business.”
Trump did better than Ledeen advised by picking Iran, which is anything but a crappy little country and managed to inflict on it damage that could take generations to repair.
To be sure, Trump-bashers still try to depict him as loser while in private they know that defying the US isn’t like going on a picnic. The second thing that contributed to what seems to be a change of mood is the realization that the blockade imposed on Iran may be more effective than bombing it especially when one runs out of serious targets.
The third thing that happened was the failure of the project to guide ships pinned down by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz into the Gulf of Oman under US military escort.
At the rate of two ships a day, clearing the pinned down vessels would take over 100 days and that would be too close to mid-term elections that appear dicey for Trump.
The fourth thing that may have contributed to what Hegseth calls “a pause” is the end of the 60-day limit after which the President needs Congressional approval to continue military action. Theoretically, the sine die ceasefire declared by Trump and accepted by Tehran could be sold as the end of initial hostilities. According to sources in Washington, Tehran, Islamabad and Beijing, a “roadmap” may take shape along an Iranian 15-point proposal and an American 10-point counter proposal. Both represent maximalist gambits that neither side could accept as such.
As mentioned in an earlier column, China seems set to play mediator by offering a compromise formula during President Trump’s summit with President Xi Jinping in Beijing on May 14-15.
The formula was discussed by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in talks with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi in Beijing on Wednesday.
Earlier Araghchi had discussed the move with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Moscow. On Wednesday, the official agency IRNA also reported that Araghchi had consulted his Saudi counterpart, Faisal bin Farhan Al-Saud.
As far as we know, the formula spelled out in a one-page memo suggests three sequences of negotiations in view of an eventual deal. The first round would focus on ending the US naval blockade against Iran and the full re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran also insists that all Israeli operations in Lebanon be halted as part of the first round. Tehran would guarantee that its proxies in Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen would take no action against US and allies’ assets and bases. The second sequence would deal with the nuclear issue touted by Trump as top priority.
The US wants a written guarantee by Tehran never to enrich or stockpile military grade uranium. Tehran seems ready to offer a five-year pause in that would go beyond Trump’s presidential term.
That would enable Trump to say he achieved what seven US presidents failed to do.
Tehran would also be ready to transfer part of its high grade enriched uranium to Russia based on an accord made in 2015. The remaining part could be downgraded for use in the Amirabad reactor in Tehran and used for civilian purposes.
The third sequence of talks could deal with guarantees that Tehran demands against future attacks by US and allies. In exchange, Tehran may agree to limit the range of its missiles though it regards the 2015 accord to set that limit at 2,000 kilometers as no longer valid.
If sources are right, Tehran will also drop its current demand for payment of war reparations by the US in exchange for releasing Iranian frozen assets and allowing Iran access to global capital markets. The final deal will be signed presumably in the Pakistani capital of Islamabad at the end of all three sequences of negotiations and the establishment of modalities of implementation.
The sine die ceasefire will remain in place until the end of the negotiating process and agreement on a definite termination of hostilities.
Will such a gambit work?
No one knows.
But what is certain is that almost everyone - including the five veto-holders in the UN Security Council, the regional powers, the BRICS nations and the European Union - would welcome an end to this war.
Yet, supposing that such a scheme does take shape and is implemented, who could guarantee that either Iran or a future US administration would abide by it?
The Chinese suggest a new resolution by the UN Security Council as guarantee. That would be the eighth resolution dealing with the so-called “Iran problem.” All seven previous ones were passed unanimously but their implementation wasn’t mandatory. Iran didn’t abide by them and US and EU reciprocated by dodging provisions favorable to Iran.
A new resolution could come under the so-called Chapter VII of the UN Charter that under its articles 41 and 42 envisages sanctions and military action in case of non-compliance.
If that happens, any cheating by the Islamic Republic could expose it to isolation and even use of force by all UN members.
Despite the latest outburst of optimism, previous episodes of this tragic soap opera laced with farcical undertones warrant a big dose of caution.
If, according to the Arab proverb, seeking knowledge would warrant travelling even to China, the same journey in pursuit of peace may not provide the desired result.
As always between the cup and the lip there is many a slip.

What to expect when you’re expecting peace
Makram Rabah/Al Arabiya English/08 May ,2026
There are moments in the life of a country when history does not knock politely on the door, but kicks it open and asks a very simple question: are you ready to act like a state or are you still pretending that survival is a strategy?
Lebanon may be approaching one of those moments if President Donald Trump’s expected invitation to President Joseph Aoun to come to the White House for talks on peace becomes a reality. Many in Beirut will try to drown the moment in slogans and fears, but the truth is simpler. Joseph Aoun is the president of Lebanon, and the Lebanese constitution gives him the authority to represent the Lebanese state and negotiate on its behalf.
That alone should be the starting point, because for too long Lebanon has behaved as if sovereignty is a sentimental poem rather than a legal and political responsibility. Aoun does not need permission from Hezbollah to defend Lebanon’s future, nor does he need Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri’s blessing to discover that the region has changed beyond recognition. The presidency is not a decoration in Baabda, and it is certainly not a waiting room for whichever militia, foreign capital or parliamentary broker decides when Lebanon is allowed to breathe.
But Aoun should not deceive himself. Hezbollah and, by extension, its most important political ally Nabih Berri, will not play nice. Even if Aoun goes out of his way to repeat parts of Hezbollah’s rhetoric, even if he speaks of occupation, deterrence, dignity and resistance, it will not be enough. Hezbollah does not fear the language of sovereignty; it fears its implementation. It can live with speeches, committees, indirect formulas and endless “national dialogue.” What it cannot live with is a Lebanese state that finally decides that weapons, war and peace belong to the state alone.
This is why Aoun must understand that the old Lebanese habit of buying time will not work in Washington, especially not with Trump. The American president is not a patient man, and he has never pretended to be one. If Aoun goes to the White House merely to stall or perform balance, he will be treated as another Middle Eastern leader trying to escape a decision. Lebanon has mastered the art of postponement, but postponement is not diplomacy. It is decay with better lighting.
Aoun must also be clear-eyed about Iran. Tehran does not care about the Israeli occupation of Lebanese territory in the way Lebanon cares, or should care. Iran cares about leverage, pressure points and bargaining chips, and Lebanon has been one of its most useful cards for years. If the Israeli presence in the south serves Iran’s narrative, it will use it. If peace threatens the utility of Hezbollah’s weapons, Iran will oppose peace while pretending to defend Lebanon. Aoun should say what many Lebanese know but too many officials avoid saying: Lebanon’s land cannot be liberated by turning Lebanon itself into an Iranian platform. The president also needs to grasp that whether Benjamin Netanyahu is physically present in the room is not the central issue. Lebanon’s deeper problem is not that Israel has acted like Israel. The deeper problem is that the Lebanese state has too often failed to act like a state. It has outsourced war, tolerated armed autonomy, hidden behind excuses and allowed non-state actors to decide the fate of millions. Peace, security or even a serious ceasefire cannot be built on a fiction. The fiction is that Lebanon can negotiate as a sovereign state while part of its territory, decisions and military future remain controlled by an armed party loyal to a foreign axis.
This is where Aoun must double down on Prime Minister Nawaf Salam. Salam’s sovereign ideas have helped protect what remains of the Lebanese state, not because they are poetic, but because they are basic. Lebanon cannot demand respect abroad while accepting humiliation at home. Aoun and Salam do not have the luxury of rivalry. They either stand together around the idea of the state, or they will be picked apart separately by those who prefer Lebanon weak, negotiable and permanently afraid.
And because Aoun is a former commander of the Lebanese army, he more than anyone should know that slogans about sovereignty are worthless without an executable plan. Disarmament cannot be a wish, a headline or a foreign demand repeated in Arabic. It must be a serious Lebanese plan, led by the state, anchored in the army and explained honestly to the public. The argument that disarmament will automatically lead to civil war can no longer be used as a national veto. Of course there are risks. Every serious decision carries risks. But there is also a risk in doing nothing, and Lebanon has been living inside that risk for decades. Aoun does not need to go to Washington as a dreamer. He needs to go as a president who understands that peace is not an emotion and sovereignty is not a slogan. He must remember that Lebanon’s problem was never a shortage of clever formulas; it was a shortage of courage to implement them. The region has changed, the rules have changed, and the patience of the world has changed. The only question left is whether Lebanon’s leaders have changed with it.
If Joseph Aoun is expecting peace, he should expect resistance from those who profit from war, impatience from those who want results, and suspicion from a Lebanese public that has been disappointed too many times. But he should also expect something else: a rare chance to restore the meaning of the Lebanese state. If he misses it, history will also blame the president who had the authority to act, saw the moment clearly, and still chose the comfort of hesitation over the burden of leadership.

President Trump’s state visit to China: When elephants dance
Cornelia Meyer/Al Arabiya English/08 May ,2026
US President Trump will visit China on May 14-15 after his scheduled visit in March was postponed because of the Iran war. It always matters to the world when the leaders of the world’s two largest economies talk face to face. Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping have so far met 6 times - on US and Chinese soil and on the margins of G-20 and APEC summits. Trump had envisaged to visit Beijing victorious after a decisive victory against Iran. Alas the war has dragged on longer than the US had anticipated. Economic ties and several geopolitical issues, ranging from the war on Iran to Taiwan, are expected to be on the agenda of the two leaders’ meeting. There is also China’s dominance in processing minerals, especially rare earths, that are critical for many technology and defense industries. Last year, when the US threatened to impose high tariffs, China responded with obstructing the export of rare earths to the US.
On the economic front, President Trump will arrive in toe with American CEOs from the tech world, Exxon and Boeing. Technology is a big topic, because the Pentagon had added several companies to a restricted list due to their assumed relationship to the Chinese military. These included Alibaba, Baidu and BYD, which were later removed. On the Chinese front, the decision to block Meta’s acquisition of the AI startup Manus shows that the tech game is no longer just one sided in favor of the United States.
The participation of Exxon’s CEO underscores the importance of energy in global economic relationships. Meanwhile, Boeing wants to benefit from China, which has the world’s fastest growing aerospace market. Other than that, the Iran war will loom large as hostilities continue despite a ceasefire. For China this matters a lot as it gets 44 percent of its crude oil imports from the other side of the Strait of Hormuz – 11 percent of which come from Iran. It receives another 20 percent from Russia, a share that will increase the longer the Iran war continues.
Before the double blockade, China, India and Pakistan managed to get ships through the strait because they were considered “friendly nations.” However, no Chinese cargoes passed through Hormuz ever since the US imposed its blockade in the Gulf of Oman.
The relationship between China and Iran relationship is complex and should not be overestimated. China makes up around a third of Iranian exports whereas Chinese imports from Iran constitute merely 1percent. While Iran is part of the BRICS, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the Belt and Road initiative, China understands how to balance those allegiances with relationships it has with other Gulf states and with the US. There is nobody more sanguine and pragmatic when it comes to economic and diplomatic relationships than China.
This brings us to what is at stake for both China and the US when Trump visits Beijing.
The Strait of Hormuz is crucial for the energy security of Beijing and there is even more at stake: The PRC has ratified United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea while Iran and the US have not. This goes well beyond the “problem with Hormuz.” More than 70 percent of energy and trade to East Asia and China have to pass through the Strait of Malacca to reach their destination. In that sense the free thoroughfare matters to China and many of the East Asian nations more than it matters to anyone else in the world.
Xi portrayed himself as the protagonist of the global world order, not just in light of the Iran war, but also in terms of other multilateral agreements and to trade disputes with the US. He vowed to the deputy leader of the UAE as well as the Spanish prime minister that he would try to look for workable diplomatic solutions to the Iran conflict. The same was portrayed by China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi when he met his Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi earlier this week. Meanwhile, Araghchi notably held a telephone conversation with Saudi Foreign Minister, Prince Faisal bin Farhan after his meetings in China while still in Beijing.What we can make of the above is that dominant players are looking for an off ramp of the conflict and China might become a player in sponsoring an absence of war - if not peace.
This gives China a position as a mediator on the international stage for the time being: The global economy desperately needs an end to this war. It is depriving the world of oil, LNG, petrochemicals, aluminum and above all fertilizer supplies. It will also foster inflation, while obstructing energy flows and food security globally. Lastly, we come to the issue of Taiwan: Even if the two leaders try to work on what they have in common and iron out differences in trade and geopolitics, Taiwan remains a hot topic. It constitutes a geopolitical chokepoint for the future. To the US and the global economy, the country’s advanced technology in microchip processors matters. To China, the island nation is what it considers an integral part of its territory. The talks between the two leaders are thus manyfold and several topics will not find a resolution during this state visit.

Selected Face Book & X tweets for May 08/2026
Mike Pompeo
https://x.com/i/status/2052796930099437575
President Trump has laid out several objectives that must be reached before we can responsibly end our military operations against Iran, including reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Those goals are all achievable - but we need to be prepared to finish the job.

Giorgia Meloni
I was pleased today to receive the U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio at Palazzo Chigi. We had a broad and constructive discussion, during which we addressed numerous issues, from bilateral relations between Italy and the United States to the main international matters, including the crisis in the Middle East, freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, the stabilization of Libya, and the peace process in Lebanon and Ukraine. A frank dialogue, between allies who defend their own national interests but who both know how precious Western unity is.

Bechara Gerges
Abbas Ibrahim was not a “mediator.” He was not a “statesman.” He was a piece of infrastructure, built inside the Wilayat al-Faqih project, installed at the head of Lebanon’s General Security from 2011 to 2023, not to fortify a sovereign institution but to convert it into a service arm of Hezbollah and the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.Al-Hurra’s investigation, published last week, opened the file. Inside General Security branches in zones under Hezbollah’s writ, a network was forging Lebanese passports for IRGC officers and Hezbollah commanders, using the identities of fighters killed in Syria whose deaths were never announced. At the same time, roughly 300,000 passports of the 2003 model sat in the vaults of Banque du Liban, undestroyed, in defiance of a 2016 directive, throughout his entire tenure. The Lebanese passport, in his hands, stopped being a sovereign document. It became a corridor, open, supervised, untraceable, for the Quds Force and everything underneath it. The port file is the other half of the indictment. Two hundred and eighteen dead. Ibrahim has not stood before Judge Tarek Bitar. He has helped lead the campaign to dismantle him.
This is not the record of a public servant who made errors of judgment. This is the title of an era in which the Lebanese state was abducted from inside its own ministries. The man was elegant. The language was careful. The smile was professional. The function was singular: he was the door through which Iran walked into one of the few institutions Lebanon still had. He was not, in any operational sense, the Director General of Lebanese Public Security. He was, on Lebanese soil, the Director General of Iranian security.
This is not a detail in a man’s biography. This is the biography of an era, written in tons of ammonium nitrate, in forged passports issued to dead men, and in the blood of two hundred and eighteen Lebanese whose killers he did not pull the trigger on, but whose path to the trigger he cleared from inside the state.
That makes him no less a criminal. It makes him the more dangerous kind.

Dr Walid Phares
Under international law and with the support of the @realDonaldTrump
administration, Lebanese and Israeli citizens will be encouraged to meet, exchange ideas and values, and discuss the prospects for peace.The United States would support and protect these people-to-people exchanges as a pathway toward peaceful relations. The people of both countries cannot remain hostage to stalled negotiations and the obstruction of Hezbollah.

Department of State

https://x.com/i/status/2052735480685346904
SECRETARY RUBIO: We share the same goal with Italy of a strong Lebanese government that doesn’t have an armed Hizballah operating within its national territory.
Italy can play an important role in not just helping equip the Lebanese government, but cutting off the illicit financing that supports Hizballah.

Hussain Abdul-Hussain
https://x.com/i/status/2052509840904208417
Told @skynewsarabia that war between Hezbollah and Israel is independent of the war in Iran, started before the war on Iran, and went on even after the Iranians announced that a ceasefire in Lebanon was part of their own ceasefire with U.S.
What happened was that Lebanon agreed with Israel to spare the rest of Lebanon, and when Hezbollah commanders started taking refuge in the rest of Lebanon, Israel struck them there.
The only connection is that if Iran agrees to sever ties with proxies (unlikely), that’d make it easier for Israel and Lebanon to defeat Hezbollah.

Mark Carney

Canada stands in solidarity with the Lebanese people and Lebanese territorial integrity. I spoke with President Aoun earlier and condemned Israel’s illegal invasion and Hezbollah’s continued attacks on Israel. I expressed my strong support for Lebanon’s efforts to disarm Hezbollah and underscored the importance of maintaining a meaningful ceasefire and creating conditions for displaced civilians to return home safely.

Hiba Nasr
@statedeptspox: Next meeting btw Lebanon & Israel will build a framework for lasting peace & security arrangements, full restoration of Lebanese sovereignty throughout its territory, delineation of borders & creating concrete pathways for humanitarian relief & reconstruction.