English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For October 03/2024
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/aaaanewsfor2024/english.october03.24.htm

News Bulletin Achieves Since 2006
Click Here to enter the LCCC Arabic/English news bulletins Achieves since 2006 

Click On The Below Link To Join Eliasbejjaninews whatsapp group
https://chat.whatsapp.com/FPF0N7lE5S484LNaSm0MjW
اضغط على الرابط في أعلى للإنضمام لكروب Eliasbejjaninews whatsapp group

Elias Bejjani/Click on the below link to subscribe to my youtube channel
الياس بجاني/اضغط على الرابط في أسفل للإشتراك في موقعي ع اليوتيوب
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCAOOSioLh1GE3C1hp63Camw

Bible Quotations For today
Be on guard so that your hearts are not weighed down with dissipation and drunkenness and the worries of this life, and that day does not catch you unexpectedly, like a trap
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Luke 21/34-38/:”‘Be on guard so that your hearts are not weighed down with dissipation and drunkenness and the worries of this life, and that day does not catch you unexpectedly, like a trap. For it will come upon all who live on the face of the whole earth. Be alert at all times, praying that you may have the strength to escape all these things that will take place, and to stand before the Son of Man.’Every day he was teaching in the temple, and at night he would go out and spend the night on the Mount of Olives, as it was called. And all the people would get up early in the morning to listen to him in the temple.”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on October 02-03/2024
Elias Bejjani /Text & Video: The Heresy of the Devil's Advocates,& the Necessity of Banning the Mouthpieces of Iran's Axis from Media Platforms
Elias Bejjani/Text & Video: To hypocrite Politicians, Patriarch Al Raei, & Sovereignists: free yourselves from cowardice, Dhimmitude & submission. Demand that Lebanon be placed under full UN authority and control
Iran's Khamenei warned Nasrallah of Israeli plot to kill him, sources say
Israel sends additional forces into Lebanon, warns 24 villages in south to evacuate
Plane evacuating Britons from Lebanon lands in UK as blasts heard in Beirut
Why Does Israel Insist on Hezbollah to Withdraw North of Litani River?
Beirut’s Southern Suburb Becomes a ‘Ghost Town’ as Residents Hesitate to Return
Lebanese Emergency Services Are Overwhelmed and Need Better Gear to Save Lives in Wartime
After Pressing an Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire, the Biden Administration Shifts Its Message
Israel Says Eight Soldiers Killed in Clashes with Hezbollah in Lebanon
Three Killed in Israeli Strike on Damascus, Syrian State Media Says
US Warns Iran at UN: Don’t Target Us or Israel
Pentagon Chief Tells Israel That US Is ‘Well-Postured’ against Iran
Israel Kills Dozens in Gaza, Sends Tanks into Southern Areas, Medics Say
UK Says Its Fighter Jets Played a Part in Preventing Further Escalation in Middle East
G7 Leaders Still Hopeful for Diplomatic Solution in Middle East
Palestinian officials say 51 killed in Israeli strikes on southern Gaza
Maronite bishops condemned the continued Israeli aggression: The international community must work to immediately cease fire and implement Resolution 1701
Why Arabs Are Celebrating the Death of Hassan Nasrallah/Bassam Tawil/ Gatestone Institute/October 02, 2024
Hezbollah c’est moi: The Party of God without Hassan Nasrallah/David Daoud/MENASource/October 02/2024
The Contest of Wills Between Israel and Hezbollah ...The militant group’s miscalculations have left it with no good options in Lebanon./David Daoud and Ahmad Sharawi/The Dispatch/October 02/2024

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on October 02-03/2024
Biden won't support a strike on Iran nuclear sites as Israel weighs response to Iran missile attack
G7 leaders say they are still hopeful for diplomatic solution in Middle East
Israel Vows Retaliation for Massive Iranian Missile Attack
Israel bars U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres from country over response to Iran attack
What calculations stand behind Tehran's massive missile strike on Israel?
US Navy warships fired interceptors at Iranian missiles targeting Israel
Gazan buried as only known victim of Iranian barrage against Israel
Healey visits Cyprus for talks as Middle East crisis deepens
Islamic State ambush kills four Iraqi soldiers near Kirkuk
Danish police detain three people after blasts near Israel embassy
Not Too Late to Stop Iran’s Nuclear Program

Titles For The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources on October 02-03/2024
Iran’s strikes on Israel are the latest sign that the conflict in the Middle East is spiraling, presenting rising global security threats/Javed Ali, University of Michigan/The Conversation/October 02/, 2024
The threat of all-out Middle East war looms: two scenarios/Mark Dubowitz/Daily Mail/October 02/ 2024
Iran and Israel closer than ever to full-fledged war/Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/October 02, 2024
Iran’s latest miscalculation could prove extremely costly/Mohamed Chebaro/Arab News/October 02, 2024
Course Correction… or More Chaos?/Tariq Al-Homayed/Asharq Al- Awsat/October 02/2024

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on October 02-03/2024
Elias Bejjani /Text & Video: The Heresy of the Devil's Advocates,& the Necessity of Banning the Mouthpieces of Iran's Axis from Media Platforms
Elias Bejjani /December 02/ 2024
"It is absolutely essential, especially now that Hezbollah—the terrorist arm of the Mullahs' regime—has been broken and defeated, its assassination machine dismantled, and its institutions laid bare for all to see. The party that specialized in drug trafficking, weapons smuggling, and money laundering has now been stripped of all illusions and hallucinations of power. It has become clear, beyond any doubt, that the Iranian Mullah regime is nothing more than a paper tiger, whose sole aim is to destabilize Arab nations, break apart their states, and seize control of their resources, using their own people against them. With the collapse of the deceptive myth of 'resistance and liberation,' it is now crucial that every mouthpiece and lackey of this Iranian terrorist axis be banned from appearing on Lebanese and Arab media outlets.
These despicable individuals, these lowlifes, have sold their tongues, dignity, and pens for thirty pieces of silver. They are a disgrace to every concept of intellect, culture, truth, human potential, knowledge, faith, rights, and dignity.
I urge readers to read Colonel Charbel Barakat's editorial, which sheds light on the catastrophic role of those who masquerade as analysts, flooding the media with false information and peddling paid propaganda for the inhumane and terrorist Mullahs Iranian axis. The article, available in both Arabic and English, on my site and published  yesterday. The link is below
In this context, it must also be noted that the role of the devil’s advocate, frequently played by Lebanese journalists—especially Christian ones—on radio and television during interviews, is a shameful, servile, and pathological phenomenon. This diseased media role is a leftover of the moral depravity and cultural terrorism of the Syrian occupation, which was further worsened under the criminal Iranian occupation through its Lebanese mercenaries known as Hezbollah.
In the free world, especially in the West, such a pathological media phenomenon does not exist. When anyone is invited to speak, they are given complete freedom to express their opinions without intimidation or interruption.
In conclusion, this servile media behavior is often embedded in the subconscious of many journalists and is practiced accordingly, except in cases where it is imposed on them by the owners of media outlets."

Elias Bejjani/Video: To hypocrite Politicians, Patriarch Al Raei, & Sovereignists: free yourselves from cowardice, Dhimmitude & submission. Demand that Lebanon be placed under full UN authority and control
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y2D7VqT67i4&t=18s
Elias Bejjani/October 01/2024

Elias Bejjani/Text & Video: To hypocrite Politicians, Patriarch Al Raei, & Sovereignists: free yourselves from cowardice, Dhimmitude & submission. Demand that Lebanon be placed under full UN authority and control
Elias Bejjani/October 01/2024
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2024/10/135116/
To all the hypocrites, to the head of the Maronite Patriarchate who hides behind lukewarm positions, and to those who claim to be sovereignists: free yourselves from your cowardice and submission. Together, you must turn to the UN Security Council and demand that Lebanon be placed under full UN authority and control.  Hezbollah, the Iranian-armed terrorist proxy, is leading Lebanon towards utter destruction with its reckless rocket launches on Israel. Israel, who is defending itself, has eliminated the majority of Hezbollah's leadership, including the notorious Hassan Nasrallah. Yet, many Lebanese politicians, clerics, officials and political parties remain cowardly and shamefully passive. Their lukewarm stances against Hezbollah’s occupation of Lebanon are disgraceful. It’s time to wake up, join forces, and seek for UN international intervention.
 What are you waiting for? Act now! Break free from, Procrastination. Dhimmitude cowardice, and betrayal. Leave behind your narcissistic dens, tear apart your selfish power schemes, and fear God. Defend your people and your nation.
 Raise your voices across Lebanon and demand an immediate halt to the military actions of Hezbollah, this criminal and barbaric Iranian tool, alongside its jihadist thugs and hateful leftist groups. Demand an immediate cessation of Hezbollah’s attacks on Israel without any conditions. Call for the dismantling of Hezbollah and the arrest of its treacherous, deceitful leaders. Insist on the disarmament of Hezbollah before any elections or government formations can take place.  You opportunists and Iscariots are the ones who enabled Hezbollah’s rise in Lebanon and blessed its occupation. Repent and pat the penances, or resign and spare us your betrayal.  As for the leaders of Lebanon’s corrupt political parties, it’s time for you to shut up and awaken from your ignorance and inhumanity.  In conclusion, Lebanon is a failed, occupied and rogue state ruled by traitors and Judas-like figures. The UN Security Council must intervene immediately, place Lebanon under international guardianship, enforce international resolutions related to Lebanon by force, and prosecute corrupt leaders like Nabih Berri, Najib Mikati, and the disgraceful Abdullah Bou Habib.
 In conclusion, There will be no resurrection for Lebanon as long as Hezbollah is in full control and  puppets official govern it.

Iran's Khamenei warned Nasrallah of Israeli plot to kill him, sources say
Samia Nakhoul and Laila Bassam/Reuters/October 2, 2024
DUBAI/BEIRUT (Reuters) - Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned Hezbollah leader Syyed Hassan Nasrallah to flee Lebanon days before he was killed in an Israeli strike and is now deeply worried about Israeli infiltration of senior government ranks in Tehran, three Iranian sources said. In the immediate aftermath of the attack on Hezbollah's booby-trapped pagers on Sept. 17, Khamenei sent a message with an envoy to beseech the Hezbollah secretary general to leave for Iran, citing intelligence reports that suggested Israel had operatives within Hezbollah and was planning to kill him, one of the sources, a senior Iranian official, told Reuters. The messenger, the official said, was a senior Iranian Revolutionary Guards commander, Brigadier General Abbas Nilforoushan, who was with Nasrallah in his bunker when it was hit by Israeli bombs and was also killed. Khamenei, who has remained in a secure location inside Iran since Saturday, personally ordered a barrage of around 200 missiles to be fired at Israel on Tuesday, a senior Iranian official said. The attack was retaliation for the deaths of Nasrallah and Nilforoushan, the Revolutionary Guards said in a statement. The statement also cited the July killing of Hamas Leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, and Israel's attacks on Lebanon. Israel has not claimed responsibility for Haniyeh's death. Israel on Tuesday began what it labelled as a "limited" ground incursion against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. Iran's foreign ministry and the office of Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, which oversees the country's foreign intelligence agency Mossad, did not reply to requests for comment. Nasrallah's assassination followed two weeks of precise Israeli strikes that have destroyed weapons sites, eliminated half of Hezbollah's leadership council and decimated its top military command. Iran's fears for the safety of Khamenei and the loss of trust, within both Hezbollah and Iran's establishment and between them, emerged in the conversations with 10 sources for this story, who described a situation that could complicate the effective functioning of Iran's Axis of Resistance alliance of anti-Israel irregular armed groups. Founded with Iran's backing the 1980s, Hezbollah has long been the most formidable member of the alliance. The disarray is also making it hard for Hezbollah to choose a new leader, fearing the ongoing infiltration will put the successor at risk, four Lebanese sources said.
"Basically, Iran lost the biggest investment it had for the past decades," said Magnus Ranstorp, a Hezbollah expert at the Swedish Defense University, of the deep damage caused to Hezbollah that he said diminished Iran's capacity to strike at Israel's borders. "It shook Iran to the core. It shows how Iran is deeply infiltrated also: they not only killed Nasrallah, they killed Nilforoushan," he said, who was a trusted military adviser to Khamenei. Hezbollah's lost military capacity and leadership cadre might push Iran towards the type of attacks against Israeli embassies and personnel abroad that it engaged in more frequently before the rise of its proxy forces, Ranstorp said.
IRAN MAKES ARRESTS
Nasrallah's death has prompted Iranian authorities to thoroughly investigate possible infiltrations within Iran's own ranks, from the powerful Revolutionary Guards to senior security officials, a second senior Iranian official said. They are especially focused on those who travel abroad or have relatives living outside Iran, the first official said. Tehran grew suspicious of certain members of the Guards who had been traveling to Lebanon, he said. Concerns were raised when one of these individuals began asking about Nasrallah’s whereabouts, particularly inquiring about how long he would remain in specific locations, the official added. The individual has been arrested along with several others, the first official said, after alarm was raised in Iran's intelligence circles. The suspect's family had relocated outside Iran, the official said, without identifying the suspect or his relatives. The second official said the assassination has spread mistrust between Tehran and Hezbollah, and within Hezbollah. "The trust that held everything together has disappeared," the official said. The Supreme Leader "no longer trusts anyone," said a third source who is close to Iran's establishment. Alarm bells had already rung within Tehran and Hezbollah about possible Mossad infiltrations after the killing in July of Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in an Israeli airstrike on a secretive Beirut location while meeting an IRGC commander, two Hezbollah sources and a Lebanese security official told Reuters at the time. That killing was followed a few hours later by the assassination of Hamas leader Haniyeh in Tehran. Unlike Haniyeh's death, Israel publicly claimed responsibility for the killing of Shukr, a low-profile figure who Nasrallah nonetheless described, at his funeral, as a central figure in Hezbollah's history who had built its most important capabilities. Shukr was key to the development of Hezbollah's most advanced weaponary, including precision-guided missiles, and was in charge of the Shi'ite groups operations against Israel over the past year, Israel's military has said. Iranian fears about Israeli penetration of its upper ranks stretches back years. In 2021, former Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said the head of an Iranian intelligence unit that was supposed to target agents of Mossad had himself been an agent for the Israeli spy agency, telling CNN Turk that Israel obtained sensitive documents on Iran's nuclear programme, a reference to a 2018 raid in which Israel obtained a huge trove of top secret documents about the programme. Also in 2021, Israel's outgoing spy chief Yossi Cohen gave details about the raid, telling the BBC that 20 non-Israeli Mossad agents were involved in stealing the archive from a warehouse.
PAGER WARNING
Khamenei's invitation to Nasrallah to relocate to Iran came after thousands of pagers and walkie talkies used by Hezbollah blew up in deadly attacks on Sept 17 and 18, the first official said. The attacks have been widely attributed to Israel, although it has not officially claimed responsibility.
Nasrallah, however, was confident in his security and trusted his inner circle completely, the official said, despite Tehran's serious concerns about potential infiltrators within Hezbollah's ranks. Khamenei tried a second time, relaying another message through Nilforoushan to Nasrallah last week, imploring him to leave Lebanon and relocate to Iran as a safer location. But Nasrallah insisted on staying in Lebanon, the official said. Several high-level meetings were held in Tehran following the pager blasts to discuss Hezbollah and Nasrallah's safety, the official said, but declined to say who attended those meetings. Simultaneously, in Lebanon, Hezbollah began conducting a major investigation to purge Israeli spies among them, questioning hundreds of members after the pager detonations, three sources in Lebanon told Reuters. Sheikh Nabil Kaouk, a senior Hezbollah official, was leading the investigation, a Hezbollah source said. The probe was progressing rapidly, the source said, before an Israeli raid killed him a day after Nasrallah's assassination. Another raid earlier last week had targeted other senior Hezbollah commanders, some of who were involved in the inquiry. Kaouk had summoned for questioning Hezbollah officials involved in logistics and others "who participated, mediated and received offers on pagers and walkie-talkies," the source said.
A "deeper and comprehensive inquiry" and purge were now needed after the killing of Nasrallah and other commanders, the source said. Ali al-Amin, the editor-in-chief for Janoubia, a news site based that focuses on the Shi'ite community and Hezbollah said reports indicated that Hezbollah detained hundreds of people for questioning after the pagers saga. Hezbollah is reeling from Nasrallah's killing in his deep bunker in a command HQ, shocked at how successfully Israel penetrated the group, seven sources said. Mohanad Hage Ali, deputy research director of the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut with a focus on Iran and Hezbollah, described the offensive as "the biggest intelligence infiltration by Israel" since Hezbollah was founded with Iran's backing in the 1980s. The current Israeli escalation follows almost a year of cross-border fighting after Hezbollah began rocket attacks in support of its ally Hamas. The Palestinian group killed 1,200 people and seized 250 hostages in an attack on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, according to Israeli tallies. In Gaza, Israel's retaliation has killed more than 41,000 Palestinians, according to the Gaza health ministry.
LOSS OF TRUST
The Israeli offensive and fear of more attacks on Hezbollah have also prevented the Iranian-backed group from organizing a nationwide funeral on a scale reflecting Nasrallah's religious and leadership status, according to four sources familiar with the debate within Hezbollah.
"No one can authorize a funeral in these circumstances,” one Hezbollah source said, lamenting the situation in which officials and religious leaders could not come forward to properly honor the late leader. Several commanders killed last week were buried discreetly on Monday, with plans for a proper religious ceremony when the conflict ends. Hezbollah is mulling the option of securing a religious decree to bury Nasrallah temporarily and hold an official funeral when the situation permits, the four Lebanese sources said. Hezbollah has refrained from officially appointing a successor to Nasrallah, possibly to avoid making his replacement a target for an Israeli assassination, they said. "Appointing a new Secretary General could be dangerous if Israel assassinates him right after," said Amin. "The group can't risk more chaos by appointing someone only to see them killed."

Israel sends additional forces into Lebanon, warns 24 villages in south to evacuate
Paul Godfrey/United Press International/October 2, 2024
Oct. 2 (UPI) -- The Israeli military said Wednesday it was sending more troops into southern Lebanon as part of a limited ground incursion aimed at neutralizing Hezbollah's ability to attack Israel. The announcement a second division was being deployed to assist the 98th paratrooper division which crossed into Lebanon early Tuesday came as Hezbollah claimed its fighters had routed an Israeli patrol in a dawn battle at the border town of Adaisseh and inflicted losses on them. "Soldiers of the 36th Division, including troops of the Golani Brigade, the 188th Armored Brigade, the 6th 'Etzioni' Infantry Brigade and other forces, are joining the targeted and delimited ground operation in southern Lebanon against Hezbollah terrorist targets and infrastructure," Israel Defense Forces said in a news release. The forces would, the IDF added, be supported by an "air force attack effort and covering artillery fire from the 282nd Brigade." The military issued fresh alerts Wednesday to villagers in 24 settlements in southern Lebanon urging them to leave saying it was a matter of life and death. "Hezbollah's activities force the IDF to act against it forcefully. The IDF does not intend to harm you, so for your own safety you must evacuate your homes immediately and head north of the Awali River. Save your lives," IDF spokesman Avichay Adraee wrote in a post on X. "Anyone who is near Hezbollah elements, installations, and combat equipment is putting his life at risk. Any house used by Hezbollah for its military needs is expected to be targeted. Evacuate your homes immediately. "Be careful, you must not go south. Any southward movement may put you in danger. We will let you know when it is safe to return home," said Adraee. The widening of the Israeli operation in southern Lebanon amid the first direct clashes with Hezbollah on the ground came hours after Iran launched a massive airborne attack against Israel on Tuesday evening, firing almost 200 ballistic missiles in retaliation for the killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.
Israeli air defenses downed the majority of the missiles with the assistance of U.S. and British forces in the region and no casualties inside Israel were reported. Confirming U.S. forces had intercepted multiple missiles launched toward Israel by Iran, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said Washington had "fulfilled our commitment to partner with Israel in its defense" and would never hesitate to deliver on that pledge. "We condemn this outrageous act of aggression by Iran, and we call on Iran to halt any further attacks, including from its proxy terrorist groups," he said in a statement Tuesday. "I am deeply proud of the skill and the bravery of the U.S. troops who helped to save lives today from Iran's assault and who continue to support Israel's defense and to prevent a widening conflict or escalation."Austin added that U.S. forces maintained a "significant capability" focused on protecting U.S. troops and partners in the Middle East and deterring further escalation.
British Defense Secretary John Healey confirmed Britain's involvement in a post on X in which he thanked British troops for "playing their part" in helping prevent further escalation in the region.
Meanwhile, as Israeli airstrikes on Beirut continued overnight and the death toll in Lebanon rose to more than 1,000, according to the Lebanese Health Ministry, the governments of thousands of foreign nationals rushed to evacuate their citizens from the country. A commercial aircraft chartered by Britain's Foreign Office was due to depart Beirut on Wednesday with further flights planned depending on the security situation on the ground. "I intend to put on a charter flight using commercial services on Wednesday and I'm seeking more capacity over the coming days so that people can return to our country over the next few days whilst the airport is still open," said Foreign Secretary David Lammy. "But I have warned and cautioned now for months that we have seen, in previous crises between Israel and Lebanon, the airport close, and we cannot guarantee that we will be able to get people out in speedy fashion," he added. The Netherlands' Ministry of Defense confirmed Wednesday it was dispatching a military transport aircraft to Beirut airport on Friday to bring out Dutch people who wished to leave with a second flight planned for Saturday.

Plane evacuating Britons from Lebanon lands in UK as blasts heard in Beirut
Claudia Savage, PA/PA Media: UK News/October 2, 2024
More British nationals are expected to be airlifted out of Lebanon on Thursday as further blasts hit Beirut. An apparent Israeli airstrike hit an apartment building near the centre of the Lebanese capital on Wednesday, marking the second time Israel has struck the city this week.
The airstrike hit not far from the United Nations headquarters, the prime minister’s office and parliament and no warning was issued ahead of the blast, with the number of casualties unclear. A plane charted by the UK Government carrying Britons from Lebanon landed in Birmingham on Wednesday evening with another flight set to depart Beirut on Thursday afternoon. The flight was chartered to help meet any additional demand for British nationals and their dependants wanting to leave Lebanon. The Foreign Office has said that any further flights in the coming days will depend on demand and the security situation on the ground. Vulnerable British nationals and their spouse or partner, and children under the age of 18, will be prioritised. In a post to X, Foreign Secretary David Lammy reiterated calls for British citizens in Lebanon to leave while commercial flights are still available.
The Defence Secretary John Healey also met military personnel preparing for a potential evacuation of Britons from Lebanon, as he thanked RAF personnel involved in the operation to defend Israel from Iranian missiles. Two Typhoon fighter jets, supported by a tanker aircraft, were involved in the operation although the Ministry of Defence said because of the nature of the attack “they did not engage any targets”. Mr Healey told Sky News in Cyprus: “They were part of the wider effort to prevent further escalation and to show the UK’s steadfast support for Israel’s right to self defence and to security. “They did not engage, but they were ready to do so, and nevertheless, they were playing a part in the wider efforts to deter the further conflict, and they will continue to do so.”The Israeli military has warned people to evacuate about 50 villages and towns across southern Lebanon as its activities continue.
Israel has also promised to retaliate for the Iranian missile attack, something which could trigger a wider war in the region. Mr Healey said he had spoken to his Israeli counterpart, Yoav Galant, to assure him the UK offered “steadfast” support but to say that “our big concern is to avoid this conflict spiralling into a wider regional war”.

Why Does Israel Insist on Hezbollah to Withdraw North of Litani River?
Beirut: Lina Saleh/Asharq Al Awsat/October 02/2024
Lebanese fears became reality early Tuesday when the Israeli military announced a “limited ground operation” in southern Lebanon against Hezbollah. This move comes after 15 days of escalating violence, which began with the explosion of Hezbollah’s pagers and communication devices and the assassination of key leaders, culminating in the killing of Hezbollah’s Secretary-General, Hassan Nasrallah. Israeli officials stated their intent to “do everything necessary to return northern residents” to their homes and to use “all means” to push Hezbollah “beyond the Litani River.”
These remarks are viewed as serious threats. The issue of the Litani River gained attention again on August 11, 2006, when the UN Security Council unanimously adopted Resolution 1701. This resolution called for a complete ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel, ending the July war pitting Hezbollah against the Israeli army. Resolution 1701 established a zone between the Blue Line, the border between Lebanon and Israel, and the Litani River in southern Lebanon, banning all armed groups and military equipment except for the Lebanese Armed Forces and UN peacekeepers (UNIFIL). Hezbollah initially accepted the resolution but later violated it by fully redeploying in southern Lebanon. Israel has also repeatedly breached the resolution, failing to withdraw from the occupied Lebanese territories of Shebaa Farms and Kfar Shouba Hills. It has conducted numerous air violations and recently bombarded southern villages, displacing over a million Lebanese residents. Retired military analyst Brig. Gen. Saeed Kozah told Asharq Al-Awsat that Israel aims to push Hezbollah fighters beyond the Litani River, believing this would reduce the threat by about 40 kilometers from its settlements. Meanwhile, as Israel ramped up its military actions against Lebanon, air raid sirens continued to sound in Israeli settlements near the border. This followed Hezbollah’s launch of dozens of rockets at military sites and settlements, including the city of Haifa. The area of southern Lebanon around the Litani River covers about 850 square kilometers and is home to around 200,000 residents, 75% of whom are Shiite. Observers believe this is a key reason why Hezbollah is unwilling to withdraw from the region. Kozah noted that Hezbollah’s refusal to retreat is tied to its desire to “declare victory,” similar to its stance after the 2006 July war, as it does not want to admit defeat. Kozah stated that while a Hezbollah withdrawal would reduce direct ground and rocket attacks, it would not eliminate the risk of missiles launched from the Bekaa Valley and other parts of Lebanon. He emphasized that Hezbollah’s ballistic missiles could be fired from various locations, including Syria.

Beirut’s Southern Suburb Becomes a ‘Ghost Town’ as Residents Hesitate to Return
Asharq Al Awsat/October 02/2024
Ali F., 35, refused to enter Beirut's southern suburbs to check on his home after Monday night airstrikes. “I’m not taking any chances... I'll find out if the building is destroyed eventually,” he said. He left his home in a rush days ago after Israeli forces warned residents to evacuate.
Now, he’s unsure about returning to collect his belongings. “No one lives in the building anymore,” he told Asharq Al-Awsat. “If the power cuts while I’m in the elevator, I’ll be stuck, and no one will rescue me.” Beirut’s southern suburbs were hit overnight after the Israeli military warned residents to leave areas near buildings it said contained Hezbollah infrastructure. The area has become a “ghost town,” according to a civil defense worker near the area on Monday night, after the Israeli army announced airstrike targets. Most residents evacuated their homes and moved to safer areas. By Tuesday morning, only a few dozen remained — mostly medics, civil defense workers, and some municipal police officers. On Monday night, the Israeli army warned residents to evacuate three areas in the southern suburbs: Rweiss near Burj al-Barajneh, Mrayjeh near Lailaki, and Bir al-Abed in Haret Hreik.
The three targeted areas cover a five-kilometer stretch, filled with residential buildings home to tens of thousands. These neighborhoods have long been the population hub of Beirut's southern suburbs, which have expanded east toward Hadath and south to Choueifat over the past 20 years.
Mona, who lives in Rweiss, questioned the strikes: “What’s in these areas to justify targeting them? Could there really be a weapons depot in a residential building right along the Hadi Nasrallah Highway?”She was referring to two buildings in Bir al-Abed and Rweiss that were hit near the highway. “Could a military facility really be under a building where dozens of families live?” Mona believes the Israeli army wants to clear the area, claiming the presence of weapons as an excuse. The Israeli army said it launched “precision strikes on Hezbollah weapons manufacturing sites and infrastructure in Beirut’s southern suburbs on Monday night.”Nearby residents endured a difficult night, shaken by loud explosions, watching the developments unfold on TV. Just before midnight, Israeli warplanes targeted Lailaki, Mrayjeh, Haret Hreik, and Burj al-Barajneh, destroying several residential buildings. Reports indicated that eight buildings were destroyed in Mrayjeh, along with others not listed on the Israeli evacuation maps. No casualties were reported from the strikes in the southern suburbs, but Lebanon’s Health Ministry said at least 95 people were killed and 172 injured in Israeli strikes on southern Lebanon, the Bekaa Valley, and Beirut in the past 24 hours.

Lebanese Emergency Services Are Overwhelmed and Need Better Gear to Save Lives in Wartime
Asharq Al Awsat/October 02/2024
When Israel bombed buildings outside the southern Lebanese city of Sidon, Mohamed Arkadan and his team rushed to an emergency unlike anything they had ever seen. About a dozen apartments had collapsed onto the hillside they once overlooked, burying more than 100 people. Even after 17 years with the civil defense forces of one of the world's most war-torn nations, Arkadan was shocked at the destruction. By Monday afternoon — about 24 hours after the bombing — his team had pulled more than 40 bodies — including children's — from the rubble, along with 60 survivors. The children's bodies broke his heart, said Arkadan, 38, but his team of over 30 first responders' inability to help further pained him more. Firetrucks and ambulances haven’t been replaced in years. Rescue tools and equipment are in short supply. His team has to buy their uniforms out of pocket. An economic crisis that began in 2019 and a massive 2020 port explosion have left Lebanon struggling to provide basic services such as electricity and medical care. Political divisions have left the country of 6 million without a president or functioning government for more than two years, deepening a national sense of abandonment reaching down to the men whom the people depend on in emergencies. “We have zero capabilities, zero logistics,” Arkadan said. “We have no gloves, no personal protection gear.”War has upended Lebanon again Israel’s intensified air campaign against Hezbollah has upended the country. Over 1,000 people have been killed in Israeli strikes since Sept. 17, nearly a quarter of them women and children, according to the Health Ministry. Hundreds of thousands of people have fled their homes, sleeping on beaches and streets.
The World Health Organization said over 30 primary health care centers around Lebanon’s affected areas have been closed. On Tuesday, Israel said it began a limited ground operation against Hezbollah and warned people to evacuate several southern communities, promising further escalation. Lebanon is “grappling with multiple crises, which have overwhelmed the country’s capacity to cope,” said Imran Riza, the UN's humanitarian coordinator for Lebanon, who said the UN had allocated $24 million in emergency funding for people affected by the fighting.
Exhausted medical staff are struggling to cope with the daily influx of new patients. Under government emergency plans, hospitals and medical workers have halted non-urgent operations.
Government shelters are full
In the southern province of Tyre, many doctors have fled along with residents. In Nabatiyeh, the largest province in southern Lebanon, first responders say they have been working around the clock since last week to reach hundreds of people wounded in bombings that hit dozens of villages and towns, often many on the same day. After the bombing in Sidon nearly 250 first responders joined Arkadan's team, including a specialized search-and-rescue unit from Beirut, some 45 kilometers (28 miles) to the north. His team didn't have the modern equipment needed to pull people from a disaster. “We used traditional tools, like scissors, cables, shovels,” Arkadan said. “Anyone here?” rescuers shouted through the gaps in mounds of rubble, searching for survivors buried deeper underground. One excavator removed the debris slowly, to avoid shaking the heaps of bricks and mangled steel. Many sought refuge in the ancient city of Tyre, 20 kilometers (12 miles) north of the border with Israel, thinking it was likely to be spared bombardment. More than 8,000 people arrived, said Hassan Dbouk, the head of its disaster management unit. He said that there were no pre-positioned supplies, such as food parcels, hygiene kits and mattresses, and moving trucks now is fraught with danger. Farmers have been denied access to their land because of the bombings and the municipality is struggling to pay salaries. Meanwhile, garbage is piling up on the streets. The number of municipal workers has shrunk from 160 to 10. “The humanitarian situation is catastrophic,” Dbouk said. Wissam Ghazal, the health ministry official in Tyre, said in one hospital, only five of 35 doctors have remained. In Tyre province, eight medics, including three with a medical organization affiliated with Hezbollah, were killed over two days, he said. Over the weekend, the city itself became a focus of attacks. Israeli warplanes struck near the port city’s famed ruins, along its beaches and in residential and commercial areas, forcing thousands of residents to flee. At least 15 civilians were killed Saturday and Sunday, including two municipal workers, a soldier and several children, all but one from two families. It took rescuers two days to comb through the rubble of a home in the Kharab neighborhood in the city’s center, where a bomb had killed nine members of the al-Samra family. Six premature babies in incubators around the city were moved to Beirut. The city’s only doctor, who looked after them, couldn’t move between hospitals under fire, Ghazal said. One of the district’s four hospitals shut after sustaining damage from a strike that affected its electricity supply and damaged the operations room. In two other hospitals, glass windows were broken. For now, the city’s hospitals are receiving more killed than wounded.“But you don’t know what will happen when the intensity of attacks increases. We will definitely need more.”
Making do with what they have
Hussein Faqih, head of civil defense in the Nabatiyeh province, said that “we are working in very difficult and critical circumstances because the strikes are random. We have no protection. We have no shields, no helmets, no extra hoses. The newest vehicle is 25 years old. We are still working despite all that.”At least three of his firefighters’ team were killed in early September. Ten have been injured since then. Of 45 vehicles, six were hit and are now out of service. Faqih said he is limiting his team’s search-and-rescue missions to residential areas, keeping them away from forests or open areas where they used to put out fires. “These days, there is something difficult every day. Body parts are everywhere, children, civilians and bodies under rubble,” Faqih said. Still, he said, he considers his job to be the safety net for the people. “We serve the people, and we will work with what we have.”

After Pressing an Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire, the Biden Administration Shifts Its Message
Asharq Al Awsat/October 02/2024
The Biden administration says there is a significant difference between Israeli actions that have expanded its war against the Iranian-backed armed groups Hamas and Hezbollah and Iran’s retaliatory missile attack against Israel, which it condemned as escalatory. In carefully calibrated remarks, officials across the administration are defending the surge in attacks by Israel against Hezbollah leaders in Lebanon, while still pressing for peace and vowing retribution after Iran fired about 200 ballistic missiles at Israel on Tuesday. President Joe Biden praised the US and Israel militaries for defeating the barrage and warned, “Make no mistake, the United States is fully, fully supportive of Israel.”Secretary of State Antony Blinken called the Iranian missile attack “totally unacceptable, and the entire world should condemn it.”There was little criticism that Israel may have provoked Iran's assault. "Obviously, this is a significant escalation by Iran,” national security adviser Jake Sullivan said. Just a week after calling urgently for an immediate ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah to avoid the possibility of all-out war in the Middle East, the administration has shifted its message as Israel presses ahead with ground incursions in Lebanon following a massive airstrike Friday in Beirut that killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Iranian Revolutionary Guard Gen. Abbas Nilforushan. US officials stress that they have repeatedly come out in support of Israel’s right to defend itself and that any change in their language only reflects evolving conditions on the ground. And, officials say the administration’s goal — a ceasefire — has remained constant.
The US has been quick to praise and defend Israel for a series of recent strikes killing Hezbollah leaders. In contrast to its repeated criticism of Israel's war in Gaza that has killed civilians, the US has taken a different tack on strikes that targeted Nasrallah and others but also may have killed innocent people. At the Pentagon, Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder made it clear that while the US is still “laser focused” on preventing a wider conflict in the Middle East, he carved out broad leeway for Israel to keep going after Hezbollah to protect itself.
“We understand and support Israel’s right to defend itself against Hezbollah,” Ryder said. “We understand that part of that is dismantling some of the attack infrastructure that Hezbollah has built along the border.”He said the US is going to consult with Israel as it conducts limited operations against Hezbollah positions along the border “that can be used to threaten Israeli citizens.” The goal, he said, is to allow citizens on both sides of the border to return to their homes. Part of the ongoing discussions that the US will have with Israel, Ryder said, will focus on making sure there’s an understanding about potential “mission creep” that could lead to tensions to escalate even further. State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said Tuesday that Israel’s targeting of senior Hamas and Hezbollah leaders as well as its initiation of ground incursions into Lebanon are justified because they were done in self-defense. “If you look at the actions that they have taken, they were bringing terrorists to justice, terrorists who have launched attacks on Israeli civilians,” Miller said. By contrast, he said that Iran’s response was dangerous and escalatory because it was done in support of Hamas and Hezbollah, both of which are US-designated terrorist organizations that Iran funds and supports. “What you saw (was) Iran launching a state-on-state attack to protect and defend the terrorist groups that it built, nurtured and controlled,” Miller said. “So there is a difference between the actions.”The full-throated defense of Israel, however, may come with risks. So far, there is little evidence that the Biden administration's push for a ceasefire and warnings of broadening the conflict have had much impact on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. In commentary Monday, Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said that US influence on Netanyahu seems to be waning and that he “seems to have blown by US cautions about starting a regional war.” The White House must “worry that a sustained inability to make diplomatic progress weakens US influence in the Middle East and around the world,” Alterman said, adding that “Netanyahu’s assurance that the United States will stand by Israel in any circumstance emboldens Israel to take more risks than it otherwise would.”

Israel Says Eight Soldiers Killed in Clashes with Hezbollah in Lebanon
Asharq Al Awsat/October 02/2024
Israel said on Wednesday eight of its soldiers were killed in combat in south Lebanon as its forces thrust into its northern neighbor in a campaign against the Hezbollah armed group. The losses were the deadliest suffered by the Israeli military on the Lebanon front in the past year of border-area clashes between Israel and its Iranian-backed Lebanese foe. Hezbollah said its fighters were engaging Israeli forces inside Lebanon on Wednesday, reporting ground clashes for the first time since Israeli forces pushed over the border. Hezbollah said it had destroyed three Israeli Merkava tanks with rockets near the border town of Maroun El Ras. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in a condolence video, said: "We are at the height of a difficult war against Iran's Axis of Evil, which wants to destroy us. "This will not happen because we will stand together and with God's help, we will win together," he said. The Israeli military said regular infantry and armored units were joining its ground operations in Lebanon, a day after Iran fired more than 180 missiles into Israel, a barrage which raised concerns that the Middle East could be caught up in a wider conflict. Iran said on Wednesday its missile volley - its biggest ever assault on Israel - was over barring further provocation, but Israel and the United States promised to hit back hard. A 38-year-old Palestinian from Gaza, the only known fatality in Iran's attack on Israel, was buried on Wednesday. Sameh Khadr Hassan Al-Asali had been staying in a Palestinian security forces compound in the West Bank when he was killed by falling missile debris during Tuesday's attack, which Israel said was largely foiled by its air defense systems. Hezbollah said it had repelled Israeli forces near several border towns and also fired rockets at military posts inside Israel. The group's media chief Mohammad Afif said those battles were only "the first round" and that Hezbollah had enough fighters, weapons and ammunition to push back Israel. Israel's addition of infantry and armored troops from the 36th Division, including the Golani Brigade, the 188th Armored Brigade and 6th Infantry Brigade, suggested that the operation might expand beyond limited commando raids. The military has said its incursion is largely aimed at destroying tunnels and other infrastructure on the border and there were no plans for a wider operation targeting the Lebanese capital Beirut to the north or major cities in the south.
Nevertheless, it issued new evacuation orders for around two dozen towns along the southern border, instructing inhabitants to head north of the Awali River, which flows east to west some 60 km (37 miles) north of the Israeli frontier.
BORDER CLASHES
Israel renewed its bombardment early on Wednesday of Beirut's southern suburbs, where Hezbollah has its headquarters, with more than a dozen airstrikes against what it said were targets belonging to Hezbollah. Israel also carried out an airstrike on a residential building in the Mezzah suburb in the west of Syria's capital Damascus, killing three civilians and injuring three, Syrian state media reported on Wednesday. Israel has been carrying out strikes on Iran-linked targets in Syria for years.More than 1,900 people have been killed and over 9,000 wounded in Lebanon in almost a year of cross-border fighting, with most of the deaths occurring in the past two weeks, according to Lebanese government statistics. Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati said that about 1.2 million Lebanese had been displaced by Israeli attacks. Malika Joumaa, from Sudan, was forced to take shelter in Saint Joseph's church in Beirut after being forced from her house near Sidon in coastal south Lebanon with her husband and two children. "It's good that the church offered its help. We were going to stay in the streets; where would we have gone? We were (sheltering) under the bridge, it is not safe. If we go back home, it is not safe, they are striking everywhere."
Iran described Tuesday's missile assault as a response to Israeli killings of militant leaders, including Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah, attacks in Lebanon against the group and Israel's war against Palestinian Hamas militants in Gaza. The general staff of Iran's armed forces said any Israeli response would be met with "vast destruction". US news website Axios on Wednesday cited Israeli officials as saying Israel will launch a "significant retaliation" for Iran's attack within days that could strike oil production facilities inside Iran and other strategic sites. On social media, Iranians were apprehensive about Israeli reprisals and said past wars, such as the eight-year conflict with Iraq in the 1980s that killed about one million people, would only bring more suffering.
FEARS OF FURTHER VIOLENCE
"The destruction of generations, young people being cannon fodder, the enrichment of generals and elites, and the empowerment of extremists? Leaders will not pay for dragging Iran into war," said Nima Mokhtarian, who works at an NGO. Some Iranians believe their government had no choice but to send scores of missiles to Israel, but fear what will come next as Israel's military, the most powerful and advanced in the region, prepares to hit back. "If there is a war, I'm just worried for my children," said an Iranian mother walking to work past a towering billboard in Tehran's Valiasr Square featuring a portrait of Nasrallah, who was Iran's strongest regional proxy. Iran's missile strikes and Israeli operations in Lebanon have caused alarm around the world as Tehran's Middle East proxies - Hezbollah, Yemen's Houthis and armed groups in Iraq -- have shown no let-up in attacks in support of Hamas.

Three Killed in Israeli Strike on Damascus, Syrian State Media Says
Asharq Al Awsat/October 02/2024
Three civilians were killed and three wounded in an Israeli airstrike on Syria's capital Damascus on Wednesday, the Syrian state news agency SANA quoted a military source as saying.

US Warns Iran at UN: Don’t Target Us or Israel
Asharq Al Awsat/October 02/2024
The United States warned Iran at the United Nations Security Council on Wednesday against targeting it or Israel as UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said the "deadly cycle of tit-for-tat violence must stop" in the Middle East. "Time is running out," he told the council. The 15-member council met after Israel killed the leader of Lebanon's Hezbollah and began a ground assault against the Iran-backed armed group and Iran attacked Israel in a strike that raised fears of a wider war in the Middle East. "Our actions have been defensive in nature," US Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield told the council. "Let me be clear: The Iranian regime will be held responsible for its actions. And we strongly warn against Iran – or its proxies – taking actions against the United States, or further actions against Israel," she said. French UN Ambassador Nicolas de Riviere said France wants the Security Council to "show unity and to speak with one voice" to de-escalate the situation. Thomas-Greenfield said the council should condemn Iran's attack and impose "serious consequences" on Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards Corps for its actions. "We have a collective responsibility, as members of the Security Council, to impose additional sanctions on the IRGC for supporting terrorism, and for flouting so many of this Council's resolutions," the US ambassador said. Guterres told the council he strongly condemned Iran's attack on Israel. Earlier on Wednesday, Israel's foreign minister said he was barring Guterres from entering the country because he had not done so. Russia's UN Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia praised Iran for "exceptional" restraint in recent months and said the missile attack on Israel could not be "presented as though all of this happened in a vacuum, as though nothing is happening - and nothing did happen - in Lebanon and Gaza, in Syria, in Yemen." "But it did happen, and it led to a new, very dangerous spiral of a widening Middle East conflict," Nebenzia said. In a letter to the Security Council on Tuesday, Iran justified its attack on Israel as self-defense under Article 51 of the founding UN Charter, citing "aggressive actions" by Israel including violations of Iran's sovereignty. "Iran ... in full compliance with the principle of distinction under international humanitarian law, has only targeted the regime's military and security installations with its defensive missile strikes," Iran wrote to the council. Israel's UN Ambassador Danny Danon on Wednesday rejected Iran's claim of self-defense. "It was a calculated attack on a civilian population," he told reporters before the council met. "Israel will not stand by in the face of such aggression. Israel will respond. Our response will be decisive, and yes, it will be painful, but unlike Iran we will act in full accordance with international law."

Pentagon Chief Tells Israel That US Is ‘Well-Postured’ against Iran
Asharq Al Awsat/October 02/2024
US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin spoke to his Israeli counterpart late on Tuesday, hours after Iran's missile attack on Israel following Israel's military campaign in Lebanon, and said Washington was "well-postured" to defend its interests in the Middle East. Earlier in the day, Iran fired ballistic missiles at Israel in retaliation for Israel's military campaign in Lebanon that has killed hundreds and displaced over a million people. Iran later said its missile attack on Israel was over, barring further provocation. No injuries were reported in Israel and Washington called Iran's attack ineffective.
Israel and the US have promised to retaliate against Tehran as fears of a wider war intensify. "The Secretary (Austin) reaffirmed that the United States remains well postured to defend US personnel, allies, and partners in the face of threats from Iran and Iran-backed terrorist organizations," the Pentagon said in a statement after Austin's call with Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. "The minister and I expressed mutual appreciation for the coordinated defense of Israel against nearly 200 ballistic missiles launched by Iran and committed to remain in close contact," Austin said separately in a post on X.
Israel has escalated its military campaign in Lebanon in recent days, launching operations that the Israeli military says are targeting Lebanese Iran-backed Hezbollah fighters. Israel is also waging a war in Gaza, which followed a deadly Oct. 7 attack on Israel by the Palestinian Hamas movement. Israeli's military assault on Hamas-governed Gaza has killed tens of thousands of people, displaced nearly everyone there, caused a hunger crisis in the enclave.

Israel Kills Dozens in Gaza, Sends Tanks into Southern Areas, Medics Say
Asharq Al Awsat/October 02/2024
Israeli military strikes across the Gaza Strip killed at least 60 Palestinians overnight, including in a school sheltering displaced families, medics said, as Israeli tanks advanced in areas of Khan Younis in the south of the enclave. Israeli tanks carried out a raid on several areas in eastern and central Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip, before partially retreating, leaving at least 40 people killed and dozens wounded, according to the official Voice of Palestine radio and Hamas media. In Gaza City, at least 22 Palestinians were killed, the medics said. One Israeli strike on a school sheltering displaced families in Gaza City killed 17 people, while another hit the Al-Amal Orphan Society, which also houses displaced persons, killing at least five others, the medics said. The escalation came after Iran launched a salvo of ballistic missiles at Israel on Tuesday in retaliation for Israel's campaign against Tehran's Hezbollah allies in Lebanon, and Israel vowed a "painful response" against its enemy. Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, locked in nearly a year of war with Israel, celebrated as they watched dozens of rockets en route to Israel. Some of those rockets fell in the Palestinian enclave after being intercepted by Israel's Iron Dome missile defenses, but caused no human losses, witnesses said. Hezbollah began firing rockets into Israel almost a year ago, in support of its ally Hamas in the war in Gaza, which began after the militant group staged the deadliest assault in Israel's history on Oct. 7. The assault, in which Israel says 1,200 people were killed and more than 250 taken hostage, triggered the war that has devastated Gaza, displacing most of its 2.3 million population and killing more than 41,600 people, according to Gaza health authorities.

UK Says Its Fighter Jets Played a Part in Preventing Further Escalation in Middle East
Asharq Al Awsat/October 02/2024
Britain said two of its fighter jets and an air-to-air refueling tanker played a part on Tuesday in attempts to prevent further escalation in the conflict in the Middle East, but that the jets did not engage any targets. "Two Royal Air Force Typhoon fighter jets and a Voyager air-to-air refueling tanker played their part in attempts in attempts to prevent further escalation in the Middle East, demonstrating the UK's unwavering commitment to Israel's security," Britain's Ministry of Defense said on X. "Due to the nature of this attack, they did not engage any targets, but they played an important part in wider deterrence and efforts to prevent further escalation."Iran on Tuesday fired a salvo of ballistic missiles at Israel in retaliation for Israel's campaign against Tehran's Hezbollah allies in Lebanon. Israel vowed a "painful response" against its enemy. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, when asked if Britain was prepared to use its military to help Israel defend itself, said on Tuesday Israel had the right to self-defense.

G7 Leaders Still Hopeful for Diplomatic Solution in Middle East
Asharq Al Awsat/October 02/2024
Group of Seven (G7) leaders expressed "strong concern" on Wednesday over the crisis in the Middle East but said a diplomatic solution was still viable and a region-wide conflict was in no one's interest, a statement said. Italy holds the rotating G7 presidency and Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni hosted a leaders' call a day after Israel was attacked by Iran in a missile strike that ramped up fears of a devastating regional war. An Italian government statement said the leaders condemned Tehran's attack, its biggest ever assault on Israel and agreed to "work jointly to promote a reduction in regional tensions". The statement made reference to the implementation of UN resolutions 2735 - backing a three-phase plan for a Gaza ceasefire and the release of hostages held by Hamas - and 1701, which halted the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war in south Lebanon. "Expressing strong concern over the escalation in recent hours, it was reiterated that a region-wide conflict is in no one's interest and that a diplomatic solution is still possible," it added. Along with Italy, the G7 includes the United States, Canada, Britain, France, Germany and Japan. The conference call came after Meloni had called on the UN Security Council to consider strengthening the mandate of its UNIFIL peacekeeping force in Lebanon "in order to ensure the security of the Israel-Lebanon border".Italy has contributed more than 1,000 soldiers to the mission. Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani denied Italian media reports that the government was considering pulling its forces out of the area for security reasons. "We have assessed all the possibilities...There is no decision to withdraw the Italian contingent from UNIFIL," he told a press conference. But he said it would be "foolish" not to have an evacuation plan ready if the situation deteriorated.

Palestinian officials say 51 killed in Israeli strikes on southern Gaza
AP/October 02, 2024
DEIR AL-BALAH, Gaza Strip: Israeli strikes killed at least 51 people in southern Gaza overnight, including women and children, as the military launched ground operations in the hard-hit city of Khan Younis, Palestinian medical officials said Wednesday.
Israel has continued to strike what it says are militant targets across Gaza nearly a year after Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack ignited the war there, and even as attention has shifted to Lebanon and Iran. Israel has launched ground operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Tehran fired ballistic missiles on Israel late Tuesday.Separately, Hezbollah said its fighters clashed with Israeli troops in the Lebanese border town of Odaisseh, forcing them to retreat. There was no immediate comment from the Israeli military or independent confirmation of the fighting, which would mark the first ground combat since Israeli troops crossed the border this week. Israeli media reported infantry and tank units operating in southern Lebanon after the military sent thousands of additional troops and artillery to the border. The military warned residents to evacuate another 24 villages in southern Lebanon after making a similar announcement the day before. Hundreds of thousands have already fled their homes as the conflict has intensified.
Palestinians describe massive raid in Gaza
The Health Ministry in Gaza said at least 51 people were killed and 82 wounded in the operation in Khan Younis that began early Wednesday. Records at the European Hospital show that seven women and 12 children, as young as 22 months old, were among those killed.
Another 23 people, including two children, were killed in separate strikes across Gaza, according to local hospitals.
The Israeli military did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Residents said Israel had carried out heavy airstrikes as its ground forces staged an incursion into three neighborhoods in Khan Younis. Mahmoud Al-Razd, a resident who said four relatives were killed in the raids, described heavy destruction and said first responders had struggled to reach destroyed homes.
“The explosions and shelling were massive,” he told The Associated Press. “Many people are thought to be under the rubble, and no one can retrieve them.”
Israel carried out a weekslong offensive earlier this year in Khan Younis that left much of Gaza’s second largest city in ruins. Over the course of the war, Israeli forces have repeatedly returned to areas of Gaza where they have previously fought Hamas and other armed groups as the militants have regrouped.
Hamas-led militants killed some 1,200 people, mostly civilians, on Oct. 7 and took around 250 hostage. Around 100 are still in captivity in Gaza, a third of whom are believed to be dead.
Israel’s retaliatory offensive has killed over 41,000 Palestinians, according to local health authorities, who do not say how many were fighters but say a little more than half were women and children. The military says it has killed over 17,000 militants, without providing evidence.
Iran fires missiles to avenge attacks on militant allies
Iran launched at least 180 missiles into Israel on Tuesday in what it said was retaliation for a series of devastating blows Israel has landed in recent weeks against Hezbollah, which has been firing rockets into Israel since the war in Gaza began.
Israelis scrambled for bomb shelters as air raid sirens sounded and the orange glow of missiles streaked across the night sky.
The Israeli military said it intercepted many of the incoming Iranian missiles, though some landed in central and southern Israel and two people were lightly wounded by shrapnel. Several missiles landed in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, where one of them killed a Palestinian worker from Gaza who had been stranded in the territory since the war broke out. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to retaliate against Iran, which he said “made a big mistake tonight and it will pay for it.”US President Joe Biden said his administration is “fully supportive” of Israel and that he’s in “active discussion” with aides about what the appropriate response should be.Iran said it would respond to any violation of its sovereignty with even heavier strikes on Israeli infrastructure. Hezbollah and Hamas are close allies backed by Iran, and each escalation has raised fears of a wider war in the Middle East that could draw in Iran and the United States, which has rushed military assets to the region in support of Israel. Iran said it fired Tuesday’s missiles as retaliation for attacks that killed leaders of Hezbollah, Hamas and the Iranian military. It referenced Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Revolutionary Guard Gen. Abbas Nilforushan, both killed in an Israeli airstrike last week in Beirut. It also mentioned Ismail Haniyeh, a top leader in Hamas who was assassinated in Tehran in a suspected Israeli attack in July.
The UN Security Council scheduled an emergency meeting for Wednesday morning to address the escalating situation in the Middle East.
Israel says its forces are operating in Lebanon
Israel is meanwhile carrying out what it says are limited ground incursions into southern Lebanon. Israeli airstrikes and artillery have been pounding southern Lebanon as Hezbollah fires dozens of rockets, missiles and drones into Israel, where there have been few casualties.
Israel has said it will continue to strike Hezbollah until it is safe for tens of thousands of its citizens displaced from homes near the Lebanon border to return. Hezbollah has vowed to keep firing rockets into Israel until there is a ceasefire in Gaza with Hamas.
Israel has warned people in southern Lebanon to evacuate to the north of the Awali River, some 60 kilometers (36 miles) from the border and much farther than the Litani River, which marks the northern edge of a UN-declared zone intended to serve as a buffer between Israel and Hezbollah after their 2006 war. The border region has largely emptied out over the past year as the two sides have traded fire. Israeli strikes have killed over 1,000 people in Lebanon over the past two weeks, nearly a quarter of them women and children, according to the Health Ministry. Hundreds of thousands have fled their homes. Hezbollah is a widely seen as the most powerful armed group in the region, with tens of thousands of fighters and an arsenal of 150,000 rockets and missiles. The last round of fighting in 2006 ended in a stalemate, and both sides have spent the past two decades preparing for their next showdown.

Maronite bishops condemned the continued Israeli aggression: The international community must work to immediately cease fire and implement Resolution 1701
NNA/ October 2, 2024
The Maronite bishops held their monthly meeting in Bkerke, headed by Patriarch Cardinal Mar Bechara Boutros Al-Rahi, and with the participation of the general superiors of the Maronite monastic orders. They discussed church and national affairs.
At the end of the meeting, they issued a statement read by the Patriarchal Vicar, Bishop Antoine Awkar, which stated:
"1- The fathers stand in astonishment and great pain before the horror of the catastrophe that befell Lebanon as a result of the violation of its lands in the south, the coast, the mountains and the Bekaa, and this relentless torrent of killing, sabotage and destruction that often struck innocent civilians. While they condemn the continued Israeli aggression, which left hundreds of martyrs and victims, especially the Secretary-General of Hezbollah, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and a group of his senior aides, they ask God to be merciful to Lebanon and have mercy on those who have departed to its homeland and to heal the wounded, and they demand that the international community assume its responsibilities by working to immediately cease fire and implement international resolutions, especially Resolution 1701, and to relieve the country and its people from the scourge of regional and international conflicts that mortgage it to interests that have no connection to it.
2- The fathers see that it is urgently necessary for the Parliament to take the initiative To carry out its national duty after a long wait and much suffering, so that a new president of the republic is elected to complete the constitutional institutions. Lebanon is facing fateful entitlements that it must face with real national solidarity and strict adherence to its constitutional and charter texts, which have protected it from falling in times of hardship, and have made its sovereign, free and consensual decision the source of its salvation always.
3- The fathers appreciate the readiness and efforts made by the official authorities and the medical sector to receive the displaced and treat the wounded despite the stifling economic conditions, and they salute the spontaneous, sincere and loving popular positions taken by the people of the areas outside the scene of events, by receiving their displaced people away from the machine of death. They appeal to countries and international institutions to support these official and popular efforts working to mitigate the effects of displacement until a dignified and safe return is achieved to the areas burned today by the fire of blind violence.
4- The Church stands by its wounded people, especially the displaced, through its dioceses, monasteries and institutions, especially through Caritas Lebanon, which is the Church’s arm in the service of love.
5- The fathers express their satisfaction with the honorable national stance taken by the army leadership through field measures aimed at controlling any potential chaos due to the exceptional and delicate circumstances that the country is going through. They hope that the citizens will respond to it, as well as the various security institutions mobilized for this purpose.
6- In the face of the tragedy that is sweeping Lebanon, the fathers call on all Lebanese to awaken their consciences to increase the elements of their unity and their longing for salvation by rallying around their one state and managing their affairs in a way that rises to the level of pure patriotism that views Lebanon as an indispensable homeland, and they have the duty to preserve its role and mission and work accordingly.
7- The fathers thank God for the new sign of hope in these difficult circumstances, represented by the canonization of the Blessed Martyrs, the Messabki brothers, in the Vatican on Sunday, October 20, and they call on the faithful to accompany this event with prayer and contemplation of the virtues of the Messabki brothers who were steadfast in their faith and bore witness to the Lord Christ until martyrdom. 8- In this month dedicated to the honor of the Virgin Mary, Our Lady of the Rosary, the fathers address their sons and daughters and those of good will among the Lebanese, asking them to intensify their prayers for Lebanon to emerge from its growing ordeal and to restore its safe, generous and free presence in the Eastern and global spheres.

Why Arabs Are Celebrating the Death of Hassan Nasrallah
Bassam Tawil/ Gatestone Institute/October 02, 2024
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2024/10/135160/
"Israel just made all the Middle East happy tonight." — Israeli-Lebanese Christian journalist Jonathan Elkhoury, X, September 27, 2024.
"As a Lebanese, this is one of the happiest days in Lebanon's history.... As a human being who holds peace before my eyes, this is the most important day for our region. Nasrallah and Hezbollah have terrorized the Lebanese people since the 1980s.... Every Lebanese and every decent human being should feel joy at the downfall of one of the greatest evils of our time. Now, we have a real chance to look forward... and sitting down with Israelis and the West for genuine negotiations on normalization and peace between our countries—Israel and Lebanon." — Jonathan Elkhoury, X, September 24, 2024.
"Honestly, Lebanon should toss Nasrallah into the sea like the U.S. did with Bin Laden—no land deserves that filth. Though, I do feel bad for the fish." — Amjad Taha, United Arab Emirates, to his 571,000 followers on X, September 28, 2024.
All the students at US university campuses who have been protesting Israel's war against Iran's terror proxies, such as Hezbollah and Hamas, should hear the voices of these Arabs. These voices demonstrate how many Arabs have also been harmed by terrorism and how they wish for a better future for their children and their people. These voices also show that in the war against Islamist terrorism, a growing number of Arabs consider Israel an ally.
The killing of Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah has shown that many Arabs considered him an enemy and arch-terrorist. Nasrallah was responsible for killing not only many Israelis but also many Arabs, especially in Lebanon and Syria. That is probably why the news of Nasrallah's elimination was greeted with jubilation by many Israelis and Arabs.
Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of the Iran-backed Hezbollah terrorist group in Lebanon who was killed in an Israeli airstrike on September 27, was often described by many in the West as a "formidable enemy" of Israel. Nasrallah's death, however, has shown that many Arabs, including some of his fellow Lebanese citizens, also considered him an enemy and arch-terrorist. The Hezbollah chief was responsible for killing not only a large number of Israelis over the past three decades, but also many Arabs, especially in Lebanon and Syria.
That is probably why the news of Nasrallah's elimination was greeted with jubilation by many Israelis and Arabs.
Hezbollah has long been an ally of the Ba'ath regime of Syria, ruled by the Assad family. Hezbollah has helped the Ba'ath regime during the Syrian civil war in its fight against the Syrian opposition, backed by the US.
Hezbollah's intervention in the Syrian civil war, which erupted in 2011, was pivotal in helping regime security forces regain control of several Syrian provinces, including Aleppo, and in maintaining its grip on power despite widespread opposition. For many Syrians, particularly those in opposition-held areas such as Idlib, Hezbollah's involvement in the war is synonymous with oppression and violence.
One Syrian wrote:
"I'm in idlib right now and the Syrians are out on the streets celebrating rumours of the death of Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, aka Hezboshaytan ["the party of Satan"]!
"Just a few days ago Hezboshaytan bombed a village here, today we buried a 1 year old baby and his mother that were killed."
Syrian journalist Omar Madaniah posted on X a video of hundreds of Syrians in the streets celebrating the death of Nasrallah, with some handing out sweets, and commented:
"Hassan Nasrallah should kill himself if he does not die, especially after he saw the overwhelming joy of the people after the news of his death.
"His killing of hundreds of thousands of Syrians removed the mask of 'resistance' from his ugly face, and he was unable to wear it again."
Images and videos circulating on social media featured Syrian children holding banners expressing gratitude to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for authorizing the assassination of Nasrallah. One banner reads: "Thank you, Netanyahu. We want you to take out the criminal [Syrian President] Bashar Assad." Another banner reads: "Thank you, Netanyahu. You have brought joy to the children of Syria."
In still another video, an imam of a mosque in Syria is heard announcing through a loudspeaker: "Thank Allah for the death of the oppressor Hassan Nasrallah."
Israeli-Lebanese Christian Jonathan Elkhoury commented:
"Syrians are celebrating tonight handing over baklawa [pastry] following the news that Nasrallah might be dead.
Nasrallah and Hezbollah butchered the people of Syria, helping Assad regime kill his own people.
Israel just made all the Middle East happy tonight."
In another post on X, Elkhoury wrote:
"As a Lebanese, this is one of the happiest days in Lebanon's history. As a Middle Easterner, this is one of the most transformative days for the Middle East. As a human being who holds peace before my eyes, this is the most important day for our region.
"Nasrallah and Hezbollah have terrorized the Lebanese people since the 1980s. He is responsible for the continuous downfall of Lebanon's economy and sovereignty. He bears responsibility for countless assassinations of fine Lebanese men and women, solely for opposing his grip on our precious country.
"Nasrallah is also responsible for the slaughter of thousands of Syrian children, women, and men, as well as for other atrocities across the Middle East.
"Every Lebanese and every decent human being should feel joy at the downfall of one of the greatest evils of our time.
"Now, we have a real chance to look forward, ensuring Hezbollah's weapons are handed over to the Lebanese authorities, and sitting down with Israelis and the West for genuine negotiations on normalization and peace between our countries—Israel and Lebanon."
Amjad Taha, an expert in Strategic Political Affairs from the United Arab Emirates, praised Israel for assassinating the Hezbollah chief:
"This morning dawns without Nasrallah, the head of Hezbollah, no longer casting his shadow over Lebanon. What a joyous afternoon it is! An early Merry Christmas and Hanukkah echo in the air. A truly historic day—one that fills the heart with pride. Well done, Israel—sincerely and forever. Today, the Middle East embraces a new light, with Israel at the heart of a bright and beautiful future. Israel has triumphed, and its enemies fade, now and for eternity. The 7th of October stands as a testament: you dared, and now they shall dare no more. [Hamas leader Yahya] Sinwar, you are next."
In another post on X, Taha, wrote to his 571,000 followers:
"Repost if you're still celebrating. Like if you're wondering which part of the filthy terrorist they're burying. Honestly, Lebanon should toss Nasrallah into the sea like the U.S. did with Bin Laden—no land deserves that filth. Though, I do feel bad for the fish. Any ideas?"
Kareem Rifai, who describes himself as an "anti-authoritarian advocate Syrian Circassian," commented on the celebrations in his country over the death of Nasrallah:
"The last time we saw Free Syrians celebrate like this was after [Iranian President Ebrahim] Raisi's helicopter crash — but the reaction to Nasrallah tonight is even more energetic."
Many Lebanese have also expressed joy over the death of Nasrallah, whom they hold responsible for the assassination of several of their country's politicians, including former Prime Minister Rafic Hariri, who was killed by a car bomb in Beirut in 2005. A United Nations investigation team found evidence of Hezbollah's responsibility for Hariri's assassination. A UN-backed tribunal issued four arrest warrants to members of Hezbollah.
Some Lebanese believe the assassination of Nasrallah provides an opportunity for their country to end Hezbollah's state-within-a-state status in their country. Lebanese columnist Nadim Koteich remarked:
"The most dangerous thing for Lebanon is today is not the departure of Hassan Nasrallah from the scene. The most dangerous thing facing Lebanon today is the absence of the State of Lebanon. I call for an emergency meeting of all Lebanese leaders to discuss a unilateral ceasefire to save Lebanon. I call on the Lebanese Army to restore law and order."
A Lebanese social media user called JannatM urged all Lebanese to demand an end to Hezbollah's control of Lebanon in the aftermath of the elimination of Nasrallah:
"The Lebanese abroad must take to the streets in front of their embassies and peacefully express their rejection of Hezbollah and the current government, and a demand a government that represents them.
"Move.
"Don't miss the opportunity.
"Even if it doesn't happen now, the world with know that your country is being kidnapped [by Hezbollah]."
All the students at US university campuses who have been protesting Israel's war against Iran's terror proxies, such as Hezbollah and Hamas, should hear the voices of these Arabs. These voices demonstrate how many Arabs have also been harmed by terrorism and how they wish for a better future for their children and their people. These voices also show that in the war against Islamist terrorism, a growing number of Arabs consider Israel an ally.
*Bassam Tawil is a Muslim Arab based in the Middle East. His work is made possible through the generous donation of a couple of donors who wished to remain anonymous. Gatestone is most grateful.
© 2024 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/20984/arabs-celebrate-nasrallah-death

Hezbollah c’est moi: The Party of God without Hassan Nasrallah
David Daoud/MENASource/October 02/2024
On September 27, the unimaginable happened. At approximately 5:22 p.m. local time, reports emerged of a massive Israeli strike on the predominantly Shia southern suburbs of Beirut, known colloquially as Dahiyeh. Six buildings had been flattened, throwing up pillars of thick reddish smoke against Beirut’s skyline, and an anchor with Hezbollah’s Al-Manar later said the Israeli explosives had “terraformed” the area. The first comments from the Israelis were uncharacteristically cryptic, even for them, about the strike’s target. But, clearly, it had been someone of high value, someone they wanted to ensure didn’t survive. Then the news started to trickle in on Hebrew media: Hezbollah’s Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah had been targeted, and the assessment was growing that he was killed.
Hezbollah’s media outlets, meanwhile, refused to deny Nasrallah’s presence at the strike’s location, exponentially increasing the likelihood of his death with each passing hour. Confirmation—from Hezbollah and Israel—would only come the next day on September 28. Nasrallah had died, leaving behind an organization virtually synonymous with his name.
Hassan Abdelkarim Nasrallah was Hezbollah’s third secretary-general, succeeding his predecessor, Abbas al-Musawi, to the post after Israel assassinated the latter on February 16, 1992. Nasrallah was born on August 31, 1960, either in east Beirut’s Burj Hammoud or, alternatively, in the south Lebanese village of Bazouriyeh—and grew up in the Lebanese capital’s poorer areas before the Lebanese Civil War, which began in 1975, forced his family to return to Bazouriyeh, their ancestral village in southern Lebanon. There, during his teenage years, Nasrallah became religiously and politically active with the Amal party before traveling to Najaf, Iraq, for higher religious studies. In Najaf, he met Musawi, who, at eighteen years Nasrallah’s senior, would ultimately become Nasrallah’s ideological mentor. Nasrallah returned to Lebanon in 1978, when Saddam Hussein’s regime expelled Lebanese Shia clerical students studying in Iraq, and rejoined Amal two years later, seeking to counter its increasingly secular direction under Nabih Berri, the successor to Amal’s founder Musa al-Sadr.
That effort lasted until one week after the Israeli invasion of Lebanon in 1982, when Nasrallah and others defected to form Islamic Amal under the leadership of Hussein al-Musawi. With the Islamic Revolution Guard Corp’s (IRGC) guidance, in time, Islamic Amal would fuse with other similarly-oriented Shia Islamic groups to form Hezbollah.
Nasrallah spent most of the 1980s fighting in an embryonic Hezbollah’s ranks, resuming his religious studies, this time in Qom, in 1987. He returned to Lebanon two years later and joined the faction of Hezbollah opposed to an alliance with Syria. He traveled back to Tehran shortly thereafter, serving there as Hezbollah’s representative until he was recalled to Lebanon in 1991 upon Abbas al-Musawi’s appointment as secretary-general. Nasrallah was tapped to head the Executive Council—the body in charge of Hezbollah’s social activities.
In July 1993, Hezbollah’s Shura Council—its supreme consultative body—officially appointed Nasrallah as the party’s new secretary-general. The appointment was meant to be for a finite number of years and term-limited, but Nasrallah proved so successful and popular that the party repeatedly extended his position until it finally amended its by-laws to make his appointment permanent. From that point on, the person and the position became synonymous. During a conclave held between June and August of 2004, Nasrallah was additionally appointed as the head of the Jihad Council, Hezbollah’s supreme military body. The Hezbollah over which Nasrallah assumed leadership in 1993 fundamentally differs from today’s Hezbollah. Unlike Hezbollah’s first chief of staff Imad Mughniyeh or Mughniyeh’s successor Mustafa Badreddine, Nasrallah was neither a brilliant military commander nor a philosopher-scholar like his future deputy, Naim Qassem. Nasrallah also lacked the necessary learning to be considered a great religious authority—but Nasrallah was a visionary and a capable guide for the nascent organization through some of its most formative periods and several historical inflection points.
As secretary-general, Nasrallah steered Hezbollah through Lebanon’s post-Civil War reconstitution, two major Israeli assaults in 1993 and 1996, Israel’s 2000 withdrawal from south Lebanon and the subsequent questions about the need for an independent “resistance,” America’s post-9/11 Global War on Terrorism and 2003 invasion of Iraq, Prime Minister Rafik Hariri’s assassination and Syria’s expulsion from Lebanon in 2005, a war with Israel in 2006, a decade-long civil war in Syria that threatened to depose Bashar al-Assad and eliminate a critical link for the Iran-led Resistance Axis, and then through the chaos of Lebanon’s post-2019 economic collapse—one of history’s worst financial crises. At almost every one of these junctures—and notwithstanding his post-2006 war “had I known” mea culpa—Nasrallah seemed possessed of a unique skill that guaranteed his organization’s survival and led it to further growth, aided as much by the incompetence or lack of will of his opponents as his brilliance.
The secretary-general oversaw not only Hezbollah’s transformation from a ragtag militia into perhaps the world’s most powerful terrorist army but also the expansion of its near-endless social arms—schools, charities, sports clubs, television stations—that made Hezbollah into a Lebanese social mainstay, its control over the country’s Shia community virtually uncontested. His decisions to maintain political integration, first into the Lebanese parliament and, after 2005, into its cabinet, made Hezbollah the country’s chief kingmaker. Unsurprisingly, the combination of these two factors earned Hezbollah the support of 356,112 of the country’s approximately 4 million eligible voters in the 2022 parliamentary elections—150,000 more than the second-largest party—and a 93 percent approval rating among Lebanese Shia earlier this year. And if the carrots do not suffice, Hezbollah has sufficient sticks to virtually nullify any effective opposition. But even the greatest of chess masters are not infallible. From the standpoint of his partisan and personal interests, Nasrallah’s greatest mistake was to launch a war of attrition against Israel on October 8, 2023, transforming Lebanon into a “support front” for Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and Hezbollah’s other Gaza-based allies. That decision would ultimately prove fatal. Whether his mistake will also lead to the unraveling of the organization that he guided to the height of regional power remains to be seen. Still, his loss doubtlessly constitutes a monumental setback for Hezbollah and—given its position as the tip of the spear of Iranian regional expansionism—for the Resistance Axis writ large.
Not that Hezbollah lacks competent replacements—though who remains to succeed Nasrallah is unclear at the time of this writing, since twenty of the group’s senior most officials were with the late secretary-general at the time of his demise and the giant crater left in the ground by the Israeli bombs have made their bodies hard to identify. But Nasrallah was more than a competent leader: A veritable cult of personality was built up around him that made it hard to determine where the man ended and where the organization began.
Everything from his alleged descent from the Prophet Mohammad to his name—meaning “Victory of God”—fed into this idolization and was deftly used by the organization to transform Nasrallah into an icon. His official biography even appears to have been embellished and streamlined to feed into this saintly image, at once imminent and familiar but also transcendent, with claims that, despite being from a non-observant family, he had become fully religious by age nine and was attending Velayat-e Faqih-oriented sermons by the age of ten—the ideal son. And somehow, sending his eldest son Hadi to die in battle against Israel on September 12, 1997, at the age of seventeen, while the elder Nasrallah remained safely behind also made him the perfect father. Songs about him abounded, both those created by the party and its faithful and those from non-Shia supporters—with at least one opera by famed Lebanese composer Ziyad al-Rahbani—some of which even flirted with Islamic sacrilege by likening Nasrallah to prophets.
Even as opponents mocked, his followers fawned—over his hand gestures, his turns of phrase, and even his speech defect when pronouncing the letter “R.” For an example of the cultish hold Nasrallah had on Hezbollah’s followers, one need only look to Press TV journalist Marwa Osman’s sudden and immediate breakdown on Russia Today upon learning of the group’s official announcement of his demise.
For Hezbollah, having a leader possessed of such mesmerizing magnetism over its flock certainly had its benefits. His routine speeches and periodic long-form interviews gave the party the opportunity to frame reality for its followers. Nasrallah’s various speeches and appearances also helped create and reinforce a Hezbollah worldview for the group’s support base—a framework into which all events and occurrences could be neatly fit. Setbacks could be explained away, even turned into victories. The group’s blemishes—its merciless slaughter of Syrians in support of a brutal dictator, its terrorism, its illicit and criminal activities such as the smuggling of Captagon—could all be spun, blunting any impact they may have on Hezbollah’s attraction for Lebanese Shia.
History, it seemed from Nasrallah’s speeches, was moving in a divinely preordained direction toward the victory of the group, its worldview, and the divine redemption of its followers. And Nasrallah’s word—the trust these followers misplaced in him—was the only proof needed.
But, by the nature of things, having a leader possessed of such charisma is a double-edged sword. For the secretary-general, like all men, was mortal, and whether his death had come naturally, of old age, or—as it did—by the hands of his mortal Israeli foes, Hassan Nasrallah was slated to go the way of the world. Now, whoever succeeds him must replace not only his administrative and organizational skills but a larger-than-life aura that the party designed. Hezbollah is doubtlessly possessed of a formidable organizational structure developed over the course of forty years, and so the death of one person is unlikely to signal its imminent destruction. Nevertheless, replacing Nasrallah—not just the man, but the cultish icon—will be a heavy lift whose chances of success are improbable at best, leaving his death as perhaps the one obstacle Hezbollah may not be able to overcome. If, in time, Nasrallah’s demise contributes to the dissolution of the organization that had become so identified with his person during his lifetime, the world will be better off for it.
**David Daoud is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), focusing on Hezbollah, Israel, and Lebanon issues. Follow him on X: @DavidADaoud.

The Contest of Wills Between Israel and Hezbollah ...The militant group’s miscalculations have left it with no good options in Lebanon.
David Daoud and Ahmad Sharawi/The Dispatch/October 02/2024
https://thedispatch.com/article/the-contest-of-wills-between-israel-and-hezbollah/
Diplomacy, no matter how persistent, cannot end Hezbollah’s threat to northern Israel. Even the elimination of Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah won’t suffice. Only a ground operation will.
Israel significantly intensified its campaign against Hezbollah these past two weeks—including detonating thousands of the group’s telecommunications devices, wiping out its elite military and top political leadership, launching an aerial blitz against 1,600 targets in one day, all in rapid succession. This pain had a purpose. The Israelis had just updated their war aims to include safely returning their displaced citizens to their homes in the north. They could do that only by forcing Hezbollah to decouple potential Lebanon and Gaza ceasefires and retreat from the border.
After Hezbollah began attacking Israel on October 8, American and French diplomats scrambled in vain to restore quiet to the Blue Line border with Lebanon and facilitate the return of displaced Israeli and Lebanese civilians. Israel, fighting in Gaza and inundated with growing international opprobrium, cooperated—although these ceasefire proposals would not have met its long-term security needs. The Lebanese Armed Forces, tasked with enforcing this buffer zone, lack the willingness to restrain Hezbollah—whose fighters, if they withdrew at all, would inevitably trickle back to the border. Israelis returning to their homes would be living in Hezbollah’s shadow—made more ominous by the events of October 7, and by the organization’s own plans for a similar assault.
But Hezbollah stuck to its guns, forcing mediators to eventually accept its position. Had the Israelis likewise acquiesced, they would have granted Hezbollah not only the chance to regenerate and enhance their capabilities for a future confrontation, but also the ability to claim an unprecedented victory through which to justify to its base the suffering of the past year and thus retain their support. The predictable narrative would go something like this: In May 2000, we expelled the Zionists from south Lebanon. This time, we expelled them from “Occupied Palestine” itself, and they were able to return to their homes only with our permission. So, stay the course, our method is working and the liberation of Palestine from the river to the sea is not only possible, it’s imminent.
But the stall of Gaza ceasefire talks removed even that bad option to halt Hezbollah’s fire—and matters seemed fated to settle into interminable mutual attrition, especially as the United States had already disallowed an Israeli ground maneuver inside Lebanon. Assessing the situation, Nasrallah told his followers on August 6, “Today, airlines stop flying to Beirut and Tel Aviv, foreigners leave Lebanon and the Entity, the villagers in the south’s frontlines and the colonizers in northern Palestine are forced to evacuate, our houses are destroyed but so are theirs, our factories burn but so do theirs, our people fearful but so are theirs.” This dynamic was still allowing Israel to hurt Hezbollah. But the damage was minimal—and the group believed that, between Washington restraining the Israelis and Israel’s fear of the destructiveness of a war with Hezbollah, its threats would keep the Israelis at bay and maintain a parity of pain until a Gaza ceasefire granted it a face-saving off-ramp.
But Hezbollah misread Israel. In fact, the group had been misreading Israel since it decided to enter the war on October 8. Israel’s determination to fight the Gaza war for so long surprised them, trapping Hezbollah in mutual attrition. The group also overestimated American restraint on Israel’s freedom of action or Israeli willingness to undertake escalatory or high-risk actions in Lebanon short of a full war or ground invasion. The Israelis, by contrast, had been trying to accurately gauge Hezbollah and the limits that Lebanon’s economic collapse, in particular, had placed upon the group’s willingness to go to war now.
And Hezbollah ended up tipping its very weak hand on August 25, when it sought to avenge its fallen chief of staff Fuad Shukr, assassinated by Israel a month prior. Israel’s preempted the worst of the attack with airstikes, and its defensive array intercepted most of the 210 missiles and all 20 loitering munitions Hezbollah fired in response. Hezbollah’s propaganda organs, however, immediately claimed success. But that theater could work only on the group’s base. Israel knew Hezbollah was bluffing, had identified the group’s limits, and understood it could cut the Gordian Knot. Within three short weeks, the Israeli Cabinet authorized Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant to undertake the “offensive or defensive” measures necessary to force Hezbollah to back down.
But Israel didn’t need to transform its approach—at least not yet—to achieve that goal. Exploiting the stark superiority of its military capabilities over Hezbollah’s, Israel sought to shift the weight of the ongoing attrition heavily to Hezbollah—threading the needle between American opposition to a ground incursion and the group’s lack of appetite for full war. Israel can conduct precise, calibrated, and very painful strikes without provoking a full-scale conflict. Hezbollah’ arsenal, while formidable, limits it to retaliatory options—like large-scale missile strikes on Haifa or Tel Aviv—that carry a high risk of triggering a full war. Since the group doesn’t want that, Israel’s tactical flexibility gave it a commensurate advantage. With an American green light, Israel shifted into proactive attrition, inflicting tremendous costs upon Hezbollah to maintain its “support front” for its allies in the Gaza Strip, while the Israelis remained assured that the constraining factors staying Hezbollah’s hand would keep matters below the threshold of war.
Where this goes from now, however, depends on Hezbollah. Even after being dealt successive significant blows, the group cannot back down from its vow to continue attacking Israel until a Gaza ceasefire. In fact, in his final speech, Nasrallah added halting Israeli operations in the West Bank to the group’s conditions for a ceasefire and challenged “Netanyahu, Gallant, your entire army, government, and Entity … we reiterate our challenge from October 8 today: You will fail to return the residents of the north. … Do what you wish, you will fail” without submitting to Hezbollah’s terms.
Backing down, especially after Nasrallah’s assassination, will make Hezbollah look weak in an unprecedented manner; it would be the first time in the history of the conflict with Israel that the Israelis unambiguously defeated and imposed terms upon the group. This wouldn’t be merely a blow to Hezbollah’s ego. Such an outcome could set in motion a chain reaction that erodes, in time, the group’s popular support, which is based in large part on the belief that Hezbollah is a powerful resistance organization that can always deter, defeat, and impose terms upon Israel. But neither can the group sustain pain at Israel’s hands indefinitely. For now, Hezbollah is using every possible propaganda trick to frame the mere continuation of its attacks against Israel as a victory while also engaging in a largely symbolic expansion of its strikes’ footprint. Two days before Nasrallah’s assassination, for example, the group launched a single ballistic missile at Tel Aviv, the first such attack on the major Israeli city from Lebanon. The missile was easily intercepted by Israel’s David’s Sling missile defense system—and that seems to have been Hezbollah’s intention. The group could claim success to its base, appear strong and capable, without paying the commensurate price. But the Israelis moved to deny Hezbollah such an option by assassinating its top leaders days later, and as the disparity between Israel’s successes and Hezbollah’s grows and becomes more obvious, the utility of its propaganda will run out.
The organization will then be faced with stark choices, none of them with good outcomes. Hezbollah could continue the current level of its attacks in the hopes that a premature—and as of now, seemingly unlikely—ceasefire is imposed by the international community upon Israel, allowing it to regroup and rebuild. Alternatively, the group could opt to match Israel’s escalation. Hezbollah has yet to unleash its full arsenal, and it’s unclear how much of it remains. Either of these options would have been sufficient to prompt the ongoing Israeli ground incursion—against a severely degraded Hezbollah. In the end, Hezbollah’s insistence on maintaining the tempo of its attacks precipitated that maneuver. Now, with an Israeli invasion underway, Hezbollah still has a final option—to submit willingly or forcefully to Israel’s terms, but in doing so risk signing the warrant of its own gradual demise.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on October 02-03/2024
Biden won't support a strike on Iran nuclear sites as Israel weighs response to Iran missile attack
Colleen Long And Aamer Madhani/JOINT BASE ANDREWS, Md. (AP)/October 2, 2024
President Joe Biden said Wednesday he will not support an Israeli strike on sites related to Tehran’s nuclear program in response to Iran's missile attack on Israel. “The answer is no,” Biden told reporters when asked if he would support such retaliation after Iran fired about 180 missiles at Israel on Tuesday. Biden’s comments came after he and fellow Group of Seven leaders from Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United Kingdom spoke by telephone about coordinating new sanctions against Iran. The White House said in a statement that the leaders “unequivocally condemned Iran’s attack against Israel” and that Biden reaffirmed America's “full solidarity and support to Israel and its people.”Biden added that “there are things that have to be done” in response to the Iranian barrage. He said he expected sanctions from the G7 nations to be announced soon. “We will be discussing with the Israelis what they are going to do,” Biden told reporters before heading to the Carolinas to see the devastation caused by Hurricane Helene. “All seven of us agree that they have a right to respond.” The office of Italian Premier Giorgia Meloni said in a statement that the leaders expressed “strong concern for the escalation of these last hours” and emphasized that “a conflict on a regional scale is in no one’s interest.” Italy holds the rotating presidency of the G7 group of industrialized democracies. Biden said that he planned to speak with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu "relatively soon.”Biden's administration has signaled that it is urging Israel to display restraint in how it responds to Iran’s missile attack, which Biden said was “ineffective and defeated.” Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell said there “must be a return message” to Iran. He said the U.S. and Israel officials continue to discuss their response. “At the same time, I think we recognize as important as the response of some kind should be, there is a recognition that the region is really balancing on a knife’s edge,” Campbell said at forum hosted by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a Washington think tank. The U.S. helped Israel defend against the attack that Iran carried out in retaliation for the killing of Tehran-backed leaders of Lebanese Hezbollah.

G7 leaders say they are still hopeful for diplomatic solution in Middle East
Angelo Amante/PARIS (Reuters)/October 2, 2024
France said on Wednesday it had mobilised its military resources in the Middle East to counter what it called the Iranian threat and Germany warned the region risked being set on fire after Tehran launched a barrage of missiles at Israel. Iran said early on Wednesday that its missile attack on Israel was finished barring further provocation, while Israel and the U.S. promised to retaliate against Tehran's assault as fears of a wider war intensified. The United Nations Security Council will meet later in the day to discuss the escalation, but in a sign that Western states are looking to anticipate the worsening situation, Cyprus said it had activated a mechanism to allow third-country nationals evacuating the Middle East safe passage through the island. "France condemns the attack on Israel by ballistic missiles fired from Iran. It reiterates its absolute commitment to the security of Israel. It participated through its military means in the Middle East to counter the Iranian threat," the foreign ministry said in a statement. It gave no further details on what role it had played in countering the Iranian attack, but an official said France had participated on Tuesday night to stop Iranian missiles.Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot spoke to his U.S. counterpart Antony Blinken to coordinate diplomatic efforts and will hold talks in Berlin with his counterpart on Wednesday.
FRANCE SENDS WARSHIP TO EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN
"Iran is risking setting the entire region on fire - this must be prevented at all costs. Hezbollah and Iran must immediately cease their attacks on Israel," German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said. Paris and Washington last week had attempted to secure a temporary ceasefire in Lebanon just hours before Israel launched air strikes that killed Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah. France, Britain, Germany, Italy and the United States are due to hold talks on Wednesday evening. The French ministry said it had convened a U.N. Security Council meeting to discuss the situation in the Middle East on Wednesday afternoon. The French presidency said in a separate statement it would soon organise a conference in support of Lebanon and had asked the foreign minister to travel to the region. Paris was also taking all measures to help its citizens in the region, it said. Paris sent a warship for the eastern Mediterranean on Tuesday after a helicopter carrier set off on Monday to position itself in case of mass evacuations. So far, no country has sought Cyprus's assistance for a large-scale evacuation of civilians, but Cypriot authorities have facilitated in moving personnel and isolated groups of people through Cyprus in recent days, spokesman Konstantinos Letymbiotis said in a statement. "We are closely following the situation, fully prepared to support evacuation operations as developments unfold," Letymbiotis said.

Israel Vows Retaliation for Massive Iranian Missile Attack
Henry Meyer and Marissa Newman/Bloomberg/October 2, 2024
(Bloomberg) -- Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to retaliate against Iran after it fired about 200 ballistic missiles at Israel, a severe escalation of hostilities between the adversaries that world powers fear could spiral into a Middle East-wide war. The barrage on Tuesday evening came hours after the US warned an Iranian assault was imminent. The Israel Defense Forces said most of the missiles were intercepted and reports indicated only one person, who was in the West Bank, was killed. Subscribe to the Bloomberg Daybreak podcast on Apple, Spotify or anywhere you listen.​​​​​​
The US, whose warships helped shoot down the projectiles, similarly said the attack “appears to have been defeated and ineffective.”Still, the salvo was even more dramatic and dangerous than the barrage of 300 missiles and drones Iran fired at Israel in April. This time, Tehran gave less warning and its rockets penetrated far deeper into Israeli territory, with cities including Tel Aviv and Hod Hasharon being hit and having their night-time skies lit up.
“Iran risks setting the entire region on fire — this must be prevented at all costs,” said Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Iran said its latest move was a reprisal for Israel’s devastating attacks on Lebanon-based Hezbollah, Tehran’s most important proxy militant group. On Friday, Israel assassinated Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, in an air strike on Beirut. That came after days of intense bombing that killed several of the group’s commanders, while on Monday night Israel stepped up its campaign by sending troops into southern Lebanon.
The immediate signals from Iran after Nasrallah’s killing were that it would avoid a direct attack on Israel, with new President Masoud Pezeshkian having repeatedly said in recent weeks he wants better relations with the West to ease economic sanctions on the Islamic Republic.
Yet hardline elements within the government and Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps probably convinced Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei he needed to act more firmly with Hezbollah being hammered. He was likely “coming under increasing pressure from the Revolutionary Guard to come off the sidelines to respond to Israel in a manner that would reestablish a measure of deterrence,” said Helima Croft, a strategist at RBC Capital Markets and a former analyst at the Central Intelligence Agency. Iran said it aimed at military sites and that the operation was a success. Its state media claimed 90% of the missiles hit their targets, something the initial US and Israeli analysis suggested was incorrect. In some parts of Iran, crowds gathered to celebrate.
“Iran made a big mistake tonight, and it will pay for it,” Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, said. “The regime in Iran does not understand our determination to defend ourselves and our determination to retaliate against our enemies.”
In April, Israel hit back at Iran with a limited strike on an air base that caused little damage. This time, there’s plenty of pressure within Israel for Netanyahu to respond more forcefully.
Israel’s response could come within days and potential targets include the OPEC member’s oil infrastructure, military bases and — in potentially the most extreme scenario — nuclear facilities.
Yair Lapid, an Israeli opposition leader and former prime minister, said Iran must pay “a significant and heavy” price. Israel should “destroy Iran’s nuclear program, its central energy facilities,” according to Naftali Bennett, also a former leader and one of Netanyahu’s main political rivals.
The US says it’s ready to defend Israel and that there will be “severe consequences” for Tehran because of Tuesday’s attacks. Iran said that should Israel “dare” to retaliate, a “crushing response will ensue.” Oil prices, gold and US Treasuries jumped late Tuesday when the US said Iran was preparing an attack, though they later pared some gains when it became clear the barrage had caused few casualties in Israel. Brent crude rose another 2.5% on Wednesday to above $75 a barrel. Yet it’s still down in the past six weeks, suggesting traders do not believe there will be major supply disruptions in Iran or other parts of the oil-rich Gulf. The attacks were the latest escalation of a wider conflict that began when Gaza-based Hamas attacked southern Israel on Oct. 7 last year, killing 1,200 people and kidnapping 250.
Israel’s subsequent offensive on Gaza has killed 41,000 people, according to the Hamas-run health ministry in the Palestinian territory. That’s stoked widespread anger against Israel across the Middle East and other parts of the world. Hezbollah started attacking Israel in solidarity with Hamas on Oct. 8. Both groups are backed by Iran and considered terrorist organizations by the US. In recent weeks, Israel has turned its main focus from Gaza to Hezbollah, wiping out almost its entire leadership and a significant part of its stockpile of missiles and other weaponry.
Israel says it’s conducting “targeted ground raids” in Lebanon but its intervention has raised fears its soldiers could suffer heavy casualties and get bogged down for months, if not longer.
Hezbollah said its fighters clashed with Israeli soldiers in the village of Odaisseh on Wednesday and forced them to retreat. Israel said it’s sending infantry and armored reinforcements into southern Lebanon. Netanyahu says he was forced to take more aggressive action against Hezbollah because diplomatic efforts by the likes of the US and France failed to stop the group’s missile and drone strikes on Israel. He also wants to enable tens of thousands of displaced civilians to return to their homes in the north. Israel’s air strikes on Lebanon have killed hundreds of civilians in the past two weeks, according to the country’s officials. The US has beefed up its military posture in the Middle East in the past few days. The Pentagon on Monday said it would send a few thousand additional troops and fighter jet squadrons to the region.

Israel bars U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres from country over response to Iran attack
Doug Cunningham/United Press International/October 2, 2024
Israel Wednesday banned U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres from entering the country, citing his comments immediately following Iran's attack on Tel Aviv.. "I decided today to declare U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres an undesirable personality in Israel and to ban his entry into Israel," Foreign Minister Israel Katz said on X. "Anyone who is unable to unequivocally condemn Iran's criminal attack on Israel, as almost all the countries of the world have done, does not deserve to set foot on Israel's soil." Tuesday Guterres said in a statement after Iran's ballistic missile attack on Israel, "I condemn the broadening of the Middle East conflict, with escalation after escalation. This must stop. We absolutely need a cease-fire." Guterres added, "An all-out war must be avoided in Lebanon at all costs, and the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Lebanon must be respected."Katz alleged that Guterres "has not yet denounced the massacre and sexual crimes committed by the murderers of Hamas on October 7, and has not led to decisions to declare them a terrorist organization."In October 2023 in remarks at the U.N. Security Council, Guterres said, "I have condemned unequivocally the horrifying and unprecedented Oct. 7 acts of terror by Hamas in Israel." "Nothing can justify the deliberate killing, injuring and kidnapping of civilians - or the launching of rockets against civilian targets," he said at the time.
In his October 2023 remarks, Guterres cited Israeli occupation in the West Bank.
"It is important to also recognize the attacks by Hamas did not happen in a vacuum," he said. "The Palestinian people have been subjected to 56 years of suffocating occupation."In remarks before the U.N. Security Council on Wednesday, Guterres said the "deadly cycle of tit-for-tat violence must stop." "The events of the past week, the past month and indeed nearly the past year make it clear: It is high time for an immediate cease-fire in Gaza, with the immediate and unconditional release of all hostages, the effective delivery of humanitarian aid to Palestinians in Gaza and irreversible progress to a two-state solution," he said. "It is high time for a cessation of hostilities in Lebanon, real action towards full implementation of Security Council resolutions 1559 and 1701, paving the way for diplomatic efforts for sustainable peace.""It is high time to stop the sickening cycle of escalation after escalation that is leading the people of the Middle East straight over the cliff. Each escalation has served as a pretext for the next."Guterres told Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati Tuesday that the entire United Nations system in Lebanon is mobilized to assist all those in need in the country as Israel continued it military attacks on Hezbollah. As it attacked Hezbollah, Israel has also killed civilians with its attacks and has forced dislocation of civilian residents in the country.
Guterres said the U.N. will continue efforts to de-escalate the situation. Katz said in his statement Wednesday that the global terrorism of Iran will be remembered as a "forever blot in the history of the United Nations."Guterres maintains that the United Nations must demand that all parties uphold and respect obligations under international law, including how warfare and occupation are conducted. Katz' X statement Wednesday said, "Israel will continue to protect its citizens and maintain its position and national honor with or without Antonio Guterres." Israel and the U.N. have clashed over the role of UNRWA, the U.N. agency for Palestinian humanitarian relief. Israel accused several of the agency's staff of being involved in the Oct. 7, 2023 Hamas attack on Israel. That surprise attack killed hundreds of Israelis, including civilians as well as military personnel, when Hamas gunmen crossed into Israel from Gaza, kidnapping hostages as they left. Israel attacked Gaza in response to the Oct. 7 attacks. Guterres has not yet publicly responded to being banned from Israel.

What calculations stand behind Tehran's massive missile strike on Israel?
Babak Kamiar/Euronews/October 2, 2024
As Tehran launched a major missile strike targeting Israel from its own territory on Tuesday night in a shock decision to enter the fray in the now-regional conflict, early indications suggest this attack was far more calculated and bold than the one in April. The sight of hundreds of Iranian missiles flying over Israel and the continuous sound of sirens in major Israeli cities made this assault far more serious than previous retaliations. Tehran argues that the attack was an act of "self-defence" in response to repeated strikes on its territory and citizens.
After nearly two months of "strict restraint," it claims the decision was made to retaliate for the deaths of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh, Hezbollah’s Hassan Nasrallah and Abbass Nilforoushan, IRGC's senior military adviser in Lebanon.
The IRGC also mentioned avenging the blood of Gaza's children and Lebanon's people in its statement.
Why did Iran strike now?
This issue has generated significant controversy in recent days, sparking speculation that Iran has abandoned its key ally in the region.
The new president, in fact, faced criticism for not retaliating against Israel following the assassination of Haniyeh in Tehran. (While Israel hasn’t taken responsibility, it is widely believed to have been behind Haniyeh's death).
Hardliners argue that this inaction only emboldened Netanyahu, referencing the targeted killings of Nasrallah and Nilforoushan in Beirut last Friday.
Some critics even predicted that Netanyahu might now feel confident enough to carry out further assassinations inside Iran, potentially targeting Iranian leaders.
Tehran, therefore, felt it had no option but to respond to Israel to placate a portion of its domestic public and to reinvigorate the "Resistance Axis" in neighbouring countries.
While Iran claims that 90% of its projectiles hit their targets, Israeli officials counter that most missiles were intercepted by Israeli air defence systems, though they do not deny that some military bases may have been hit.
The IRGC claims to have used a new hypersonic missile, the Fattah-1, for the first time in striking at least three military bases. The Fattah-1, described by Tehran as a "hypersonic" missile, reportedly travels at Mach 5, or five times the speed of sound (around 6,100 km/h). However, it remains unclear how many Fattah-1 missiles were actually launched.
Meanwhile, Iran's Civil Aviation Organisation announced that all flights in the country will remain suspended until 5 am local time on Thursday.
This cancellation could reflect Tehran's concerns about a swift Israeli retaliation. The announcement followed Iran's launch of at least 180 missiles at Israel and the brief closure of Ben Gurion Airport during the missile attack.
It is still unclear whether Iran had fully closed its airspace at the start of the attack. Videos from passengers on a flight, showing them watching the missiles from their windows, have raised suspicions and revived memories of the Ukrainian plane shot down by the IRGC nearly four years ago. The IRGC was accused of using civilians as human shields in that incident.
What comes next?
In his initial remarks, Benjamin Netanyahu made it clear that Iran had made a grave mistake with this attack and would face consequences. He stated: "The rule is: whoever attacks us, we will attack him." Iran's oil facilities remain a potential target, and some speculate that Israel may resort to targeted assassinations or strike Iran’s air defence systems. Israel's counterstrike in April was aimed at an S-300 air defence battery in Iran, marking the end of that round of direct attacks.
However, the likelihood of an attack aimed at killing the commanders involved in Tuesday's missile strike seems higher. Another option would be those Iranian refineries involved in gasoline production, as Iran is very vulnerable in this sector.
Typically, the emergence of any crisis in Iran, from unrest to fears of war, is manifested by long lines forming at gas stations, an issue that has been clearly evident in the past 24 hours.
On the other hand, Iranian diplomats and military commanders have suggested that their operation has concluded, implying that Iran will take no further action unless Israel responds. However, Iran has warned that any Israeli retaliation will be met with an even stronger response.
Tehran’s strategic options are unclear beyond its missile capabilities, especially as the US has expressed full support for Israel. The reactions from Western countries, most of which condemned Iran's actions, show that Washington's allies are also standing firmly behind Israel.
This clearly shifts the balance in Israel’s favour, particularly as Iran's strategic allies — Russia and China — remain ambiguous, frequently recalculating their stance based on national interests.
Some critics have cynically described Iran’s missile strike as an elaborate, expensive spectacle intended for public consumption.

US Navy warships fired interceptors at Iranian missiles targeting Israel
Jake Epstein/Business Insider/October 02/2024
US Navy warships fired interceptors at Iranian missiles that were targeting Israel on Tuesday.
The engagement came amid a massive Iranian retaliatory attack against Israel. It's the second time in six months that US forces defended Israel from an Iranian missile attack. US Navy warships fired interceptors at Iranian missiles that were targeting Israel on Tuesday as part of a massive retaliatory bombardment, marking the second time American forces have done so in less than six months. The US defensive measures occurred as Iran fired around 180 missiles at targets in Israel. The Israeli military said it also intercepted "a large number" of the missiles as civilians sought protection in shelters. White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said the US military coordinated closely with the Israeli Defense Forces to help defend the country from the attack.
"US naval destroyers joined Israeli air-defense units in firing interceptors to shoot down inbound missiles," Sullivan told reporters at a briefing. "We do not know of any damage to aircraft or strategic military assets in Israel," he added, saying the attack "appears to have been defeated" and was "ineffective." Pentagon Press Secretary Air Force Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder said two destroyers — USS Bulkeley and USS Cole — fired around a dozen interceptors to help defend Israel from the Iranian ballistic missiles. It's unclear exactly how many projectiles were actually shot down. A US defense official told Business Insider earlier that American forces on station in the Middle East "are currently defending against Iranian-launched missiles targeting Israel," adding that "our forces remain postured to provide additional defensive support and to protect US forces operating in the region."
Tehran said that the missile attack on Israel was in retaliation for the killings of top Hamas and Hezbollah leaders. Iran vowed to retaliate against Israel after Ismail Haniyeh, the leader of Hamas' political wing, was assassinated in Tehran in July. The Israeli military has also targeted Iran-backed Hezbollah and killed Hassan Nasrallah, the militant group's leader, in an airstrike in Beirut on Friday. Nasrallah's assassination, which came just days before Israel began a "limited" ground operation inside Lebanon, raised fears that the yearlong Middle East conflict could escalate, possibly bringing in the US and Iran. A senior White House official warned prior to Iran's barrage that the US had seen indications that Tehran intended to "imminently" launch a ballistic missile attack against Israel. The official said US forces were prepared to help defend and that Iran would face "severe consequences" if it directly attacked Israel. American warships and aircraft shot down Iranian missiles and drones in April during Tehran's unprecedented attack on Israel. The US military has naval and airpower assets in position around the Middle East and in the Eastern Mediterranean — more than it did in the spring — and additional forces were on their way as of Tuesday.

Gazan buried as only known victim of Iranian barrage against Israel
Reuters/Wed, October 2, 2024
JERICHO, West Bank (Reuters) - A 38-year-old Gazan, the only known fatality in Iran's missile attack against Israel, was buried on Wednesday, witnesses said. Sameh Khadr Hassan Al-Asali had been staying in a Palestinian security forces compound in the occupied West Bank when he was killed by falling missile debris during Tuesday's attack, which Israel said was largely thwarted by its air defence systems. Around 700 workers from Gaza have been staying in Jericho, in the Jordan Valley, since the start of the war in Gaza almost a year ago. Unlike Israelis, who went into bomb shelters after warning sirens sounded across the country, many Palestinians in the West Bank went out to watch the missiles and observe the explosions as they were intercepted by the Israeli air defence. Video footage taken from a CCTV camera showed a large metal tube falling out of the sky and landing on a man walking across a street, apparently killing him instantly. Reuters was able to confirm the location from the road layout, buildings, utility poles and markings on the ground which matched satellite imagery of the area. The date was verified by a timecode. The missile attack by Iran marked a potentially dangerous new phase in the war, which was triggered by the Hamas-led assault on Israel on Oct 7 last year and followed by an Israeli invasion of Gaza and which has since spiralled into a wider conflict now threatening to draw in Iran. The Hamas attack on Oct 7 prompted the Iranian-backed Hezbollah group in Lebanon to fire a barrage of missiles against Israel, and the two sides have been engaged in daily cross-border fire ever since. Over recent weeks, the conflict has flared seriously with Israel conducting the heaviest air strikes against targets in Lebanon since the last war in 2006, and Hezbollah firing hundreds of rockets and missiles at Israel.

Healey visits Cyprus for talks as Middle East crisis deepens
David Hughes, PA Political Editor/PA Media: UK News/ October 2, 2024
Defence Secretary John Healey is in Cyprus as the Government steps up efforts for a potential evacuation of Lebanon with the Middle East teetering on the brink of wider war.
Mr Healey confirmed British forces were involved in efforts to defend Israel from Iran’s ballistic missile barrage as Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer warned of the risk of a “miscalculation” after the escalation of violence in the region. It is understood RAF jets were involved in the efforts to intercept the Iranian missiles targeted at Iran. The operation was similar to the role carried out by the UK’s forces when Iran launched a drone and cruise missile barrage at Israel in April, when RAF Typhoons were involved in the defensive effort. In a statement on Tuesday night, Mr Healey confirmed “British forces have this evening played their part in attempts to prevent further escalation in the Middle East”. Hundreds of British troops have been deployed to Cyprus alongside RAF and Royal Navy assets in the region in preparation for a potential evacuation of British nationals from Lebanon following the launch of Israel’s ground offensive.
On Wednesday, Mr Healey met Cypriot counterpart Vasilis Palmas for talks about the crisis. Israel said it intercepted many of the missiles fired by Iran on Tuesday, while Tehran claimed most had hit their targets. There were no immediate reports of casualties. In a Downing Street statement on the crisis, Sir Keir Starmer said he was “deeply concerned that the region is on the brink and I am deeply concerned about the risk of miscalculation”. He said that Iran, with proxies including Hezbollah in Lebanon, had “menaced the Middle East for far too long”. Countries around the world are waiting to see how Israel responds to the Iranian attack amid concerns it could trigger spiralling regional conflict. Britons fleeing Lebanon were set to board a UK Government-chartered flight to safety on Wednesday, at a cost of £350 a seat. A separate scheduled Middle East Airlines service to Heathrow also departed Beirut’s airport. But there are concerns in Whitehall that further military activity by Israel could result in the closure of the airport, cutting off the most straightforward exit route for the estimated 4-6,000 British nationals in Lebanon.
If that happens the only option could be a military-facilitated evacuation co-ordinated from the British bases in Cyprus. On Wednesday, Israel warned people to evacuate another 24 villages across southern Lebanon as part of its ground campaign against Hezbollah.
In a separate development, Hezbollah said its fighters had forced Israeli troops to retreat after clashes in the Lebanese border town of Odaisseh. Iran said it launched Tuesday’s strikes in retaliation for the killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut last week.
The latest developments came as Jewish people marked Rosh Hashanah, the start of the new year. In a social media message, Sir Keir said: “Rosh Hashanah is a joyous occasion. But this year, we approach it with anguish too as we remember the brutal acts of October 7 and, in more recent days, the deeply concerning escalation in the Middle East. “As we hold those who lost their lives in our memory, my Government will do all we can to bring home the hostages.”

Islamic State ambush kills four Iraqi soldiers near Kirkuk
Reuters/October 2, 2024
BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Four Iraqi soldiers were killed and three injured on Wednesday in an ambush by Islamic State militants on an army convoy near the northern oil city of Kirkuk, a military statement said. The ambush took place in a rural area southwest of Kirkuk that remains a hotbed of activity for militant cells years after Iraq declared final victory over the jihadist group in 2017.
After the defeat of Islamic State (IS) as a force able to hold swathes of territory, remnants switched to hit-and-run attacks on government forces in different areas of Iraq.
Two military officials said security forces were heading to the area around 45 km (28 miles) southwest of Kirkuk to arrest a suspected militant when they came under sniper and automatic weapons fire. No group has claimed responsibility for the attack, but the military statement blamed it on IS militants.

Danish police detain three people after blasts near Israel embassy
Reuters/Tom Little and Stine Jacobsen/October 2, 2024
COPENHAGEN (Reuters) -Danish police said on Wednesday they were investigating two explosions in the immediate vicinity of Israel's Copenhagen embassy and had detained three people for questioning. Two were apprehended on a train at Copenhagen's main railway station while the third person was detained elsewhere in the Danish capital, police said on social media platform X. It was not immediately clear how those held by police were linked to the blasts. There were no injuries in the explosions, which happened at around 3:20 a.m. local time (0120 GMT), and no damage to the building itself, the Israeli embassy said in a statement. "It is clear that the Israeli embassy is in the immediate vicinity and that is naturally also an angle that we look at," Deputy Assistant Commissioner Jakob Hansen of the Copenhagen police told reporters. An area was cordoned off around the embassy and armed Danish military personnel stood guard, while investigators wearing coverall suits were seen combing the scene for evidence.
Police were due to hold a press conference at 1200 GMT.
The blasts occurred against a backdrop of soaring tensions in the Middle East as Iran carried out a massive missile attack on Israel. Israel, which is fighting Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon, promised to retaliate, stoking fears of a wider war. Carolineskolen, a Jewish school located near the embassy in the Danish capital, would stay closed on Wednesday due to its proximity to the crime scene, a spokesperson for the Jewish Community in Denmark told Reuters. There have also been several recent security incidents near Israel's embassy in neighbouring Sweden, where police on Tuesday said they were investigating suspected gunfire in the area. In January, a Stockholm police bomb squad disarmed what investigators called a "dangerous object" outside the Israeli embassy building. The incidents in Sweden caused no injuries or significant damage. Swedish authorities have said security police averted several planned attacks linked to Iranian security services using local criminal networks. Iran has called the Swedish report "baseless".

Not Too Late to Stop Iran’s Nuclear Program
Will the U.S. do anything to prevent the world’s leading sponsor of terrorism from acquiring the world’s deadliest weapon?
Orde Kittrie/ The Wall Street Journal/October 02/ 2024 |
Iran is advancing toward a nuclear bomb while Americans are preoccupied with electoral politics and Israel is distracted with battling Iran’s proxies in Gaza and Lebanon (“Iran is Waiting for a President Harris” by Reuel Marc Gerecht and Ray Takeyh, op-ed, Sept. 24). But it isn’t too late for the U.S. to refocus on, and likely stop, Iran’s nuclear program. Sen. Lindsey Graham has been encouraging the Biden administration to produce a long-delayed report by the Director of National Intelligence on Iran’s progress. While the unclassified version of that report is itself concerning, Mr. Graham said the classified version made him “very worried” that Iran “could use these three or four months before our election to sprint to a nuclear weapon” and warned, “we have to put them on notice that cannot happen.”
In an Aug. 6 Journal op-ed (“Three Ways to Confront Iran”), Sen. Graham wrote, “I urge my congressional colleagues to read the classified version. It will put this threat into chilling perspective.” Unfortunately, the DNI report’s warning appears not to have been heeded by either the administration or Congress. There is little to no evidence of recent action to more robustly deter and hinder Iran’s nuclear program. A recent study by Brad Bowman, Behnam Ben Taleblu and me recommended two dozen specific steps that the Biden administration and Congress should quickly take to deter and hinder Iran from making further progress toward a nuclear bomb. The recommendations include strengthening the declared U.S. commitment to use force to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon, U.S. military exercises and deployments designed to underscore that commitment, bolstering Israel’s capacity to destroy Iran’s nuclear program and wielding U.S. economic leverage over Iran. History will not look kindly on us if we fail to prevent the world’s leading sponsor of terrorism from acquiring the world’s deadliest weapon.
**Orde F. Kittrie is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources on October 02-03/2024
Iran’s strikes on Israel are the latest sign that the conflict in the Middle East is spiraling, presenting rising global security threats
Javed Ali, University of Michigan/The Conversation/October 02/, 2024
Iran fired at least 180 ballistic missiles at Israel on Oct. 1, 2024, amplifying tensions in the Middle East that are increasingly marked by “escalation after escalation,” as United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres put it.
Iran’s attacks – which Israel largely deterred with its Iron Dome missile defense system, along with help from nearby U.S. naval destroyers – followed Israel’s killing of Hassan Nasrallah, the longtime leader of the Tehran-backed Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, on Sept. 27.
Hezbollah has been sending rockets into northern Israel since the start of the Gaza war, which began after Hamas and other militants invaded Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, and killed nearly 1,200 people. Hezbollah’s rocket attacks have displaced around 70,000 people from their homes in northern Israel.
Amy Lieberman, a politics and society editor at the Conversation U.S., spoke with counterterrorism expert Javed Ali to better understand the complex history and dynamics that are fueling the intensifying conflict in the Middle East.
How much more dangerous has the Middle East become in recent weeks?
The Middle East is in much more volatile situation than it was even a year ago. This conflict has expanded far outside of fighting primarily between Israel and Hamas.
Now, Israel and Hezbollah have a conflict that has developed over the past year that appears more dangerous than the Israel-Hamas one. This involves the use of Israeli special operations units, which have operated clandestinely in Lebanon in small groups since November 2023. In addition, Israel has been accused by Hezbollah of conducting unconventional warfare operations – like the exploding walkie-talkies and pagers – and launched hundreds of air and missile strikes in Lebanon over the past few weeks. The combination of these operations has destroyed Hezbollah’s weapons caches and military infrastructure and killed several senior leaders in the group, including Hassan Nasrallah.
The human costs of these attacks is significant, as more than 1,000 people in Lebanon have died. Among this total, it is unclear how many of the dead or wounded are actually Hezbollah fighters.
Israel and Hezbollah last had a direct war in 2006, which lasted 34 days and killed over 1,500 people between Lebanese civilians and Hezbollah fighters. Since then, Israel and Hezbollah have been in a shadow war – but not with the same kind of intensity and daily pattern that we have seen in the post-Oct. 7 landscape.
Now, the conflict has the potential to widen well outside the region, and even globally.
What does Iran have to do with the conflict between Israel and Hamas and Hezbollah?
Iran has said it fired the missiles into Israel as retaliation for attacks on Hezbollah, Hamas and the Iranian military.
A coalition of groups and organizations has now been labeled as Iran’s “Axis of Resistance.” Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khameini, and senior military commanders in the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, or the IRGC, have issued unifying guidance to all the different elements, whether it is Hamas in the Gaza Strip, the Houthi rebels in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon or Shia militias in Iraq and Syria.
Before Oct. 7, 2023, all of these groups were ideologically opposed to Israel, to a degree. But they were also fighting their own conflicts and were not rallying around supporting Hamas. Now, they have all become more active around a common goal of destroying Israel.
Iran and Hezbollah, in particular, have a deep relationship, dating back to the Iranian Revolution in 1979 and the creation of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
In 1982, Israel invaded southern Lebanon in order to thwart cross-border attacks the Palestinian Liberation Organization and other Palestinian groups were launching into Israel. The newly formed Iranian IRGC sent advisers and trainers to southern Lebanon to work with like-minded Lebanese Shiite militants who were already fighting in Lebanon’s civil war. They wanted to fight against the Israeli military and elements of the multinational force comprised of U.S., French and other Western troops that were originally sent as peacekeepers to put an end to the fighting.
How does Hezbollah’s history help explain its operations today?
The relationships between these Iranian experts and Lebanese militants during Lebanon’s 15-year civil war led to the formation of Hezbollah as a small, clandestine group in 1982.
During the following few years, Hezbollah launched a brutal campaign of terrorist attacks against U.S., French and other Western interests in Lebanon. The group, then known as Islamic Jihad, first attacked the U.S. embassy in Beirut on April 18, 1983. That attack killed 52 Lebanese and American embassy employees. However, at the time, U.S. intelligence personnel and other security experts were not clear who was responsible for the embassy bombing. And given this lack of understanding and insight on Hezbollah as an emerging terrorist threat, the group aimed even higher later in 1983.
Following the embassy attack, Hezbollah carried out the October 1983 Marine barracks bombing that killed 241 U.S. service personnel. Before the 9/11 attacks, this was the biggest single act of international terrorism against the U.S.
Hezbollah was also responsible for the kidnapping and murder of American citizens, including William Buckley, the CIA station chief for Beirut. And it carried out airplane hijackings, including the infamous TWA 847 incident in 1985, in which a U.S. Navy diver was murdered.
So, Hezbollah has a long history of regional and global terrorism.
Within Lebanon, Hezbollah is a kind of parallel government to Lebanon. The Lebanese government has allowed Hezbollah to be this state within a state, but they don’t collaborate on military operations. Currently, the Lebanese military is not responding to Israel’s attacks on Lebanon. This shows how dominant of a force Hezbollah has become.
How damaging are Israel’s attacks on Hezbollah?
Hezbollah has clearly taken losses in fighters, but Hezbollah is a far bigger group than Hamas and operates on a much bigger physical territory across Lebanon.
It has far more inventory of advanced weapons than Hamas ever did, and a large fighting force that includes 40,000 to 50,000 regular forces organized into a conventional military structure. It also has 150,000 to 200,000 rockets, drones and missiles of varying range. It operates a dangerous global terrorist unit known as the External Security Organization that has attacked Israeli and Jewish interests in the 1990s in Argentina and Jewish tourists in 2012 in Bulgaria.
The Israeli military assesses they have destroyed at least half of Hezbollah’s existing weapons stockpile, based on the volume and intensity of their operations over the past few weeks. If true, this, would present a serious challenge to Hezbollah’s long-term operational capability that took decades to acquire.
What security risks does this evolving conflict present for the U.S.?
Looking at how Hezbollah demonstrated these capabilities over a 40-year stretch of time, and based now on how Israel has hit the militant group, it would not be a stretch to speculate that Hezbollah has ordered or is considering some kind of terrorist attack far outside the region – similar to what the group did in Argentina in 1992 and 1994. What that plot would like look, how many people would be involved and the possible target of any such attack are not clear.
Hezbollah’s leaders have said that they blame Israel for the attacks on it. About a week before Nasrallah’s death, he said that Israel’s exploding pager and walkie-talkie operations in Lebanon were a “declaration of war” and the “the enemy had crossed all red lines.”
Since then, Hezbollah has remained defiant, in spite of the significant losses the group has sustained by Israel these past few weeks. Questions also remain about how Hezbollah’s leadership will likewise hold the U.S. responsible for Israel’s actions. And if so, would that mean a return to the type of terrorism that Hezbollah inflicted on U.S. interests in the region in the 1980s? As recent events have shown, the world is facing a dangerous and volatile security environment in the Middle East.
**This article is republished from The Conversation, a nonprofit, independent news organization bringing you facts and trustworthy analysis to help you make sense of our complex world. It was written by: Javed Ali, University of Michigan

The threat of all-out Middle East war looms: two scenarios
Mark Dubowitz/Daily Mail/October 02/ 2024
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13911799/israel-iran-lebanon-trump-harris-biden-mark-dubowitz.html
This op-ed was updated on 10/1/2024 to reflect the Iranian missile attack on Israel.
The Middle East has broken out into open warfare – yet again.
Iran has launched a barrage of missiles at central Israel – and multiple people have been killed in an apparent terror attack in the streets of Tel Aviv.
Meanwhile, Hezbollah has unleashed new rounds of rocket attacks on the Jewish State and Israeli Defense Forces are staging raids into Lebanon, vowing to uproot terrorists from the shared border. Anticipation is building for the potential of a full Israeli ground invasion of Lebanon – and the White House is scrambling to prevent all-out regional conflict.
But it is not only what happens in the next few days and weeks that has the Biden administration on high alert.
The President’s national security team is also now looking ahead to the dangerous months after the 2024 election – the roughly 90-day period between the election on November 4 and the inauguration of America’s next president on January 20, 2025.
It is in this ‘lame duck’ interval — when a presidential successor has been chosen but not yet sworn into office and the incumbent president’s power is at its lowest ebb — that the White House is desperately worried about the outbreak of a ‘lame duck war.’
Biden’s team has grown increasingly concerned that Iran (patron of Hezbollah and nearly all of Israel’s enemies) may seize on this period to blow off international restraints and race to build a nuclear weapon.
President Trump, too, has raised concerns over an Iranian nuclear breakout in the waning days of Biden’s term, according to my sources.
If Iran does make a break for the bomb, America, Israel and the West will be forced to decide whether to preemptively strike Tehran or standby while the Islamic Republic becomes a nuclear-armed menace. Biden is taking this threat extremely seriously.
I know this because in the spring, the administration asked my think tank the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) for ideas on what they should do.
The FDD is a well-known critic of former President Barack Obama’s fatally flawed 2015 Iran nuclear deal, which gifted Tehran tens of billions in economic relief yet still would have allowed the regime to begin to pursue nuclear weapons after a ten-year pause. President Trump withdrew from that agreement in 2018. FDD has even taken President Biden to task for restraining Israel’s response to the October 7 attacks. However, to his credit, Biden’s advisors were open to our ideas on permanently deterring Tehran from going nuclear. The frightening reality, though, is that no matter what Biden does or who wins the election in November, President Biden may be faced with the most treacherous foreign policy dilemma in generations.
In one scenario, Vice President Kamala Harris wins the election.
This will signal to Tehran that they can expect more sympathetic treatment from the White House.
For all of Harris’s lip service about standing up to Iranian aggression, her team has a distinctively different record. Her current national security advisor Phil Gordon previously played a crucial role in designing President Obama’s Middle East policy – a time when U.S.-Israel relations were historically toxic and Iran’s aggression was on the ascent.
Gordon’s approach has been to engage Tehran and restrain Jerusalem.
The Islamic Republic will see a potential negotiating partner in a President Harris – and far-left Democrats like Senator Bernie Sanders and Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez will try to push the inexperienced new president into an even more anti-Israel direction.
For months inside the Biden-Harris administration, an intense policy debate has been raging – pitting the President’s national security team against the Vice President’s foreign policy advisors.
On one side is Biden’s national security advisor Jake Sullivan and his team who are obsessed with ‘de-escalation’ of the conflict between Israel and its Iranian-backed enemies, Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis in Yemen, and Iran-backed militias in Iraq.
At times, Biden has forced the Israelis to rein in their response to attacks and withheld or delayed the delivery of crucial weapons systems and bombs.
All of this has emboldened Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei.
But the president frequently stood by Israel in the face of withering criticism from the left flank of his party, sent US carrier strike groups to the waters near Iran and assembled an impressive coalition of Middle Eastern partners, including Jordan and Saudi Arabia, to help defend Israel against Tehran’s April 13 drone and missile attack.
It’s a mixed record, for sure.
But, for Israel, it’s better than the alternative.
Israel will view Harris’s impending election as a signal that they have less than 90 days to severely degrade their regional enemies. At FDD, we have long warned about supreme leader Khamenei’s decades-long strategy to drive American forces out of the Middle East, surround Israel with its terrorist proxy armies and destroy the world’s only Jewish state.
In 2015, he vowed to destroy Israel by 2040 – and a countdown clock was erected in Tehran’s Palestine Square to tick off the minutes until that day. Israel may see little choice but to strike at Iran’s nuclear weapons program and take out Tehran’s senior leadership and economic assets.
Such a conflagration would make their crippling decapitation strikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon and the destruction of Hamas’s terror and governance capabilities look tame by comparison.
The second scenario for this lame-duck period at the end of Biden’s term is equally fraught.
If Donald Trump wins the election, Iran’s ayatollahs may decide it is now time for them to race towards a nuclear bomb – and, according to U.S. and Israeli intelligence, Tehran is just a turn of the screw from that goal. The Islamist fundamentalist regime has mastered the production of fissile material and the long-range missiles that are necessary for delivering a nuclear payload.
The next step is the construction of a warhead and Iranian scientists have reportedly taken initial steps toward the design of a weapon. The only thing holding Khamenei back is an instinct for self-preservation. With memories of crippling Trump-era sanctions that brought Iran’s economy to its knees in 2016, and Trump’s killing of his most trusted and lethal battlefield commander Qasem Suleimani, Khamenei may decide that a Trump administration is too dangerous for him.
Since 2009, Khamenei and his shock troops have put down multiple rounds of domestic protests against their rule. Another round of Western economic warfare may tip the population against Khamenei’s regime yet again. Add to that American and Israeli support for Iranian protesters and the regime could be at risk. In this light, the Iranian dictator may see an A-bomb as his only guarantee of survival.
Khamenei could then use a bomb as nuclear blackmail – a sword of Damocles that he hangs over an American president. If Khamenei dashes for the bomb and Biden doesn’t act, Trump or Harris could take office with radical mullahs in possession of the world’s most dangerous weapons.
Khamenei then will be well on his way to realizing his genocidal ambitions.
**Mark Dubowitz is Chief Executive of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD).

Iran and Israel closer than ever to full-fledged war
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/October 02, 2024
Tensions between Iran and Israel have escalated to a dangerous and unprecedented level. The rivalry between these two nations has long been intense, but the latest developments signal that the region could be on the brink of a major conflict with far-reaching consequences.
In a significant military maneuver, Israel on Friday launched a series of strikes into Lebanon, targeting and ultimately killing Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah. This strike not only dealt a severe blow to Hezbollah, a key Iranian proxy, but more crucially it also struck at the heart of Iran’s influence in the region. Nasrallah has long been a staunch ally of Tehran and his death represents a critical loss for Iran’s strategic ambitions.
Following the assassination of Nasrallah and the start of Israeli ground operations in Lebanon, Iran on Tuesday launched missile strikes targeting Israel, signaling a sudden shift in strategy. There are several plausible reasons for this abrupt change that are potentially linked to Iran’s internal calculations regarding the cost and timing of a direct military confrontation.
The turning point in this escalating crisis appeared to come when Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday delivered a pointed speech directly addressing the Iranian people. In his speech, Netanyahu made a thinly veiled call for regime change in Tehran — a message that the Iranian leadership interpreted as a direct threat to the stability of their government.
He said: “With every passing moment, the regime is bringing you — the noble Persian people — closer to the abyss. The vast majority of Iranians know their regime doesn’t care a whit about them. If it did care, if it cared about you, it would stop wasting billions of dollars on futile wars across the Middle East. It would start improving your lives. Imagine if all the vast money the regime wasted on nuclear weapons and foreign wars were invested in your children’s education, in improving your healthcare, in building your nation’s infrastructure, water, sewage, all the other things that you need. Imagine that.”
Netanyahu also expressed his conviction that peace between Iran and Israel would only be possible once Iran is “finally free,” a moment that he believes will come “a lot sooner than people think.”The Israeli military’s ground incursion into southern Lebanon this week has heightened the stakes even further. From Iran’s perspective, these actions represent a significant and direct threat. Israel’s operations appear aimed at significantly degrading Hezbollah’s military capabilities, weakening one of Iran’s most important allies in the region.
Hezbollah has long served Iran’s strategic goals, acting as its geopolitical arm in Lebanon and a counterweight to Israeli influence. By targeting Hezbollah, Israel is directly challenging Iran’s influence in Lebanon and the broader Levant, posing a grave threat to its regional ambitions.
The Iranian leadership interpreted Netanyahu’s message as a direct threat to the stability of their government. The death of Nasrallah has also reverberated deeply within the Iranian leadership. He was not just a military leader but also a close personal ally of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. His loss is a symbolic blow to the Iranian regime, which has long relied on Hezbollah as a critical component of its regional strategy.
The complexities of the situation are also highlighted by the fact that Iran did not respond with immediate strikes following the assassination of another key ally, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, who was killed in Tehran in July. Despite orders from the supreme leader for retaliatory strikes on Israel, Iran chose not to escalate the situation at that stage. This restraint might have been interpreted as indicative of Tehran’s broader vulnerability and reluctance to engage in a full-scale war with Israel, recognizing that such a conflict would likely be disastrous for Iran.
However, this perceived inaction may have emboldened Israel, leading to the current escalation. In other words, Tehran’s decision not to follow through on its threats after the death of Haniyeh could have been interpreted by Israel as a sign of weakness, encouraging it to launch further military action. It is worth noting that there are moderate factions within the Iranian political establishment that still believe Israel is deliberately laying traps to lure Iran into a war. President Masoud Pezeshkian, for instance, last month cautioned against falling for Israel’s provocations, suggesting that Tehran should avoid taking the bait and starting a conflict that could spiral out of control. A full-fledged war with Israel would almost certainly draw in the US, a scenario that would be catastrophic for Iran. The Iranian leadership is acutely aware that its military capabilities are inferior to those of Israel and the US and such a war would be unlikely to end in its favor. In addition to its military disadvantage, Iran is also economically ill-prepared for a prolonged war. The country is already struggling with the effects of international sanctions and domestic economic mismanagement and a conflict with Israel would further exacerbate these challenges.
Nevertheless, despite these constraints, Tehran obviously felt compelled to respond in some way to maintain its credibility both domestically and with its regional allies, which is why it launched about 180 missiles at Israel on Tuesday night. Failing to retaliate for the latest developments, including Nasrallah’s death, could have been seen as a sign of weakness, undermining Iran’s image. The tit-for-tat dynamic between Israel and Iran has created a highly volatile situation, in which miscalculations or provocations could easily lead to a larger conflict. This kind of brinkmanship is inherently unpredictable and there is always the risk that it could spiral out of control. In conclusion, the current situation between Iran and Israel is extremely dangerous and has the potential to affect the entire region. Both sides are engaged in a precarious cycle of provocation and retaliation, where even a small misstep could lead to a full-scale war. Such a conflict would not only affect Iran and Israel, but also draw in other countries in the region as well as global powers, potentially igniting a broader conflagration in the Middle East.
• Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian American political scientist. X: @Dr_Rafizadeh

Iran’s latest miscalculation could prove extremely costly
Mohamed Chebaro/Arab News/October 02, 2024
Iran’s attack on Tuesday night marked its biggest ever military blow against Israel. Unlike its first ever direct strike against Israeli territories in April this year, the barrage of nearly 200 ballistic and hypersonic missiles represented a serious, uncalculated escalation, even though almost all of them were intercepted, as Israel claimed, despite Iran not giving any prior warning like last time.
Iran described the attack as defensive in nature, solely aimed at three Israeli military facilities and being a response to the Israeli killings of militant leaders and its aggression in Lebanon and in Gaza. However, this action points to a change in Iranian posture and a newfound readiness to risk an avoidable war in its continued efforts to carve itself a dominant regional role.
Clearly, Israel’s elimination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, alongside many of his top lieutenants, local commanders and even foot soldiers, was a masterful strike. It came just under a year after Hamas attacked southern Israel in what was seen as the most serious of threats faced by the Israeli state in the 75 years since its inception. But that act must have been one blow too many for Iran to digest, meaning it could no longer stick to the usual rules of engagement and asymmetric warfare practiced in the Middle East for more than three decades.
The forceful Iranian retaliation showed that the gloves are now off in Tehran and, even at the risk of an all-out war against a superior enemy, the country’s leadership seems to have reached the conclusion that it can no longer sit idly by. Hezbollah has long been the “jewel in the crown,” an enabler of Iranian power and the spearhead of its militant architecture regionally and internationally, ensuring Iranian influence stretches through Iraq, Yemen, Syria and Lebanon all the way to the Mediterranean and the Red Sea. Iran also benefited from and helped to stretch Hezbollah’s underground networks across Africa, Latin America, the US and Europe. This afforded Iran and its regime’s ideology an unparalleled reach.
Tuesday’s strike and its timing also show that Iran’s Revolutionary Guard hawks have undoubtedly been feeling vulnerable, if not outright scared, as a result of the routing of Hamas and the near-total decapitation of Hezbollah’s leadership and command structure. Tehran viewed that as critical, on top of the serious breaches of Iranian defenses. After the bombing of Hezbollah’s headquarters that killed Nasrallah, Iran rushed to move its supreme leader to a safe location, surely with all security measures reviewed and updated.
The exploding Hezbollah walkie-talkies and pagers had already prompted Iran to reassess its military and security forces’ communication tools, with all the disruption that might cause. A similar security assessment must have proved crucial at its key state installations after the July assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, who was killed while staying in a government guest house in Tehran.
The leadership in Tehran seems to have reached the conclusion that it can no longer sit idly by
It seems that Iran’s usual pragmatism could not prevail this time, as the regime must feel that its back is against the wall. The choice to retaliate directly against Israel could surely lead to severe consequences for the regime’s future, as Israel, with the US behind it, has pledged to hit back forcefully. The strikes are also likely to have undermined all the overtures made by the new Iranian president and his quasi-moderate administration at the UN last week. In New York, President Masoud Pezeshkian and his foreign minister spoke about Iran’s readiness to revive the nuclear deal. Surely Pezeshkian did not expect that the “new era” he alluded to in New York would come back to haunt the regime and, instead of heralding a new age of accommodation with Iran’s foes, would throw the country straight into the abyss of a potential direct war.
Israel’s routing of Hamas and now Hezbollah must have been seen in Tehran as a prelude to the routing of other actors in the so-called axis of resistance and, by default, the influence and impact of Iran in the region. It must be said, however, that, even at the height of its openness and expressions of moderation, Iran never abandoned its key ideological tenet of exporting its Islamic revolution or its asymmetric, deniable warfare through its militant proxies.
Before its retaliation for Nasrallah’s assassination, Iran could have leaned on Hezbollah to orchestrate a retreat of its forces north of the Litani River in Lebanon, as Israel aims to secure the villages and towns closer to the border.
Maybe miscalculations have sunk Hamas and destroyed Gaza. Miscalculation also led Hezbollah to sustain its threats to the communities living in northern Israel, close to the Lebanese border, in support of a losing Hamas. Iran’s direct attack on Israel is likely to be another such miscalculation, as it is clearly a declaration of war — and while we can argue about how it started, we cannot anticipate or predict how it will end.
These miscalculations have been built on the poor assessment that Israel has been weakened internally and its people no longer have the will to fight, even when faced with an existential threat. That I believe was compounded by an incorrect belief among the axis of resistance forces due to an over-consumption of narratives pointing to the erosion of the West and inferences that the US was about to descend into a civil war.
The cool heads that could try to pull the region back from the brink are unfortunately absent, as America is in the final weeks before its presidential election, carrying with it a string of failed initiatives to broker a ceasefire deal between Hamas and Israel in Gaza. There was also the 21-day truce between Hezbollah and Israel, proposed by Paris and Washington, that did not gain any traction prior to Nasrallah’s assassination.
We are in a world full of conflict, one governed by division and the near-breakdown of multilateralism, with divisions becoming more prominent between the US and its Western allies on one side and, on the other, a Russia that is waging war on Europe’s eastern front for the first time since the Second World War, along with the likes of China and Iran. One can only fear that, instead of the world extinguishing the fires of war between Israel and Hamas and in Ukraine, Iran’s miscalculation will only mean more instability, even if it might mean the end of Tehran’s revolutionary regime. After all, it clearly lacks popular domestic support after years of sanctions and economic failure, compounded by corruption, mismanagement and foreign adventures that the people of Iran never subscribed to.
• Mohamed Chebaro is a British Lebanese journalist with more than 25 years of experience covering war, terrorism, defense, current affairs and diplomacy. He is also a media consultant and trainer.

Course Correction… or More Chaos?
Tariq Al-Homayed/Asharq Al- Awsat/October 02/2024
New developments fall upon our region like night, but they are not followed by the rise of the day politically. Every development makes the scene more complicated, there are no solutions, and it is as though everything is a reaction that has no political horizon.
Hassan Nasrallah was killed after having issued a challenge to Israel calling on it to carry out a ground operation. Israel eliminated him, along with other leaders who have yet to be identified, through an unprecedented intelligence breach. Now, Israel is “pounding Lebanon,” as Reuters put it. Nasrallah's killing was welcomed in Washington. All of its political leaders responded with statements about how “the world is safer,” although we did not see similar reactions following the assassination of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani upon orders by their own president at the time, Donald Trump. Today, Israel is bombarding southern Lebanon and Beirut’s southern suburbs, the stronghold of Nasrallah and Hezbollah. It also struck Hodeidah in Yemen, it is strangling Gaza, where there is no room to breathe or make a sound, and its planes roam the skies over Damascus and drop missiles.
As all of this is happening, everything Washington has done, not said, has helped Netanyahu. After his belligerent address to the world at the United Nations, he is now doing everything he can to drag Iran into this battle, hoping that this draws US involvement.
Today, Netanyahu's plan is clear: cut off the "tentacles of the octopus," Iran’s proxy militias. The "octopus" is a notion first introduced by former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, and today Netanyahu is following his own reasons and Israeli security concerns.
In the past, Netanyahu had helped these "tentacles of the octopus" expand, preferring to empower Hamas and undermine the Palestinian Authority, to allow Hezbollah to weaken the Lebanese state, and for a weak Assad to remain in power and secure Israel's border.
Since Iran's nuclear program came to light, it has been a concern for Netanyahu's Israel. However, they viewed the “tentacles” as a tactical asset that allowed it to delay meeting its obligations to peace agreements and the establishment of a Palestinian state. Then came the October 7 operation, which shattered Israel’s deterrence and was dubbed Israel's 9/11.
At that point, the threat became existential. Netanyahu realized he would go down in history as the man who had empowered the "tentacle" and crushed Israel's prestige. Therefore, Netanyahu is now reversing his own policy, hoping history will remember him as the man who cut off the "tentacles" and besieged Iran instead. It is clear today that Netanyahu decided to start off from 2003, the year Saddam Hussein fell and militias rose and militants encroached on states. The question is, does Netanyahu seek this? Or is it an American strategy that Netanyahu was tasked with implementing after October 7?
“We are in the midst of a campaign against Iran's axis of evil,” he said yesterday, and the geographic range of this axis is known to all. As I mentioned, Israel has destroyed Gaza, and now it is destroying Lebanon, doing what it likes in Syria, and is striking Hodeidah. Eventually, it could strike Iraq, meaning that we are looking at an open conflict using the proxies that had been developed after the fall of Saddam. The fundamental question: Is there a strategy, or is every action merely a reaction? Is there a plan for the day after, or will we see only more chaos? The problem is that Israel’s project is destructive, just like the Iranian project. Is there an alternative project? Is there a way to seize opportunities? Is every crisis an opportunity, as they say?