English LCCC Newsbulletin For
Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For November 28/2024
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news
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Bible Quotations For today
God has sent the Spirit of his Son into our hearts, crying, ‘Abba! Father!’So
you are no longer a slave but a child, and if a child then also an heir, through
God."
Letter to the Galatians 04/01-07/:"My point is this: heirs, as
long as they are minors, are no better than slaves, though they are the owners
of all the property; but they remain under guardians and trustees until the date
set by the father. So with us; while we were minors, we were enslaved to the
elemental spirits of the world. But when the fullness of time had come, God sent
his Son, born of a woman, born under the law, in order to redeem those who were
under the law, so that we might receive adoption as children. And because you
are children, God has sent the Spirit of his Son into our hearts, crying, ‘Abba!
Father!’So you are no longer a slave but a child, and if a child then also an
heir, through God."
Titles For The Latest English LCCC
Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on November
27-28/2024
Their concepts and standards of victories are both pitiful and
heartbreaking/Elias Bejjani/November 28/2024
Hezbollah is a criminal, terrorist, corrupt, and sectarian organization—an enemy
of Lebanon, humanity, and civilization/Elias Bejjani/November 26/2024
Elias Bejjani/Video & Text: A Critique of the Flawed and Sinful Ceasefire
Between Israel and the Terrorist Hezbollah/Elias Bejjani/November 27/ 2024
Lebanon’s Hezbollah vows to continue resistance after ceasefire
Lebanon Cease-Fire Starts After Israel, Hezbollah Reach Deal
Qomati from Dahieh: We
triumphed as the enemy achieved none of its goals, and Palestine remains our
primary cause and that of the Arabs—we will not abandon it
Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire appears to hold as Lebanese stream south to their
homes
Ceasefire brings ‘unusual’ calm for northern Israelis, but fears of Hezbollah
threats persist
Hochstein: Israeli Forces to Withdraw Before Lebanese Army Deploys in South
Israel's Chief of Staff, Herzi Halevi: "The fighting in Lebanon was very
decisive, but enforcing the agreement will be even more decisive.
Berri Says War with Israel ‘Most Dangerous Phase’ in Lebanon’s History
Lebanon's Berri reprises key mediator role in ceasefire deal
Hezbollah faces long recovery, officials fear thousands of fighters lost to
Israel offensive
Factbox-Costs of Israel-Hezbollah conflict on Lebanon, Israel
Israel’s path to victory: Dismantling Khamenei’s regime by 2040
Designed To Be Permanent’: Israel Agrees to Ceasefire Agreement With Hezbollah
Lebanese Army Says It’s Moving Troops into the Country’s South as Part of
Ceasefire Plan
Lebanese Begin Grim Task of Recovering Bodies from Rubble
France Highlights Its Role in Brokering Lebanon Ceasefire Deal
What to Know about the Ceasefire Deal between Israel and Lebanon's Hezbollah
Will ceasefire deal to end Israel-Hezbollah war achieve lasting peace for
Lebanon?
Saudi Arabia Welcomes Ceasefire in Lebanon
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on November
27-28/2024
Iran reserves right to react to Israeli airstrikes, welcomes Lebanon
ceasefire
Trump team says Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire deal brokered by Biden is actually
Trump's win
Israeli strikes on Gaza Strip leave 15 dead, medics say
Israel Says It Captured Weapons from Iran Being Smuggled to West Bank
France points to Netanyahu immunity from ICC war crimes warrant
Hamas Official Says Group ‘Appreciates’ Lebanon’s Right to Reach Agreement
Iran-Backed Iraqi Militia Vows to Continue Fighting Israel
Erdogan Says Türkiye Ready to Help with Ceasefire in Gaza
South Korean leader meets Ukraine delegation and calls for response to North
Korean troops in Russia
Israeli military says it downed drone smuggling weapons from Egypt
Titles For The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources
on November
27-28/2024
When Muslims Forced a Newborn America to Pay ‘Protection Money’ (Jizya)/Raymond
Ibrahim/PJ Media/November 27, 2024
Existing Law Requires US to Cut Funding if UN Rejects Israel’s Credentials/Orde
Kittrie/The Hill/November 27/2024
Security Cooperation With Jordan: Key to Protecting Israel’s Eastern Front/Ahmad
Sharawi/FDD-Policy Brief/November 27/2024
Outgoing president must use US laws to rein in Israel/Ray Hanania/Arab
News/November 27, 2024
Who bears responsibility for delaying Palestinian statehood?/Bakir Oweida/Asharq
Al-Awsat/November 27, 2024
Israel and the evangelical conundrum/Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib/Arab
News/November 27, 2024
The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News &
Editorials published
on November
27-28/2024
Their concepts and standards
of victories are both pitiful and heartbreaking
Elias Bejjani/November 28/2024
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2024/11/137354/
What victory are they talking about? And what victory are they celebrating?
These individuals, according to all scientific and human standards, are
afflicted with denial, delusions, and hallucinations. They are in desperate need
of psychological and mental treatment, as well as intensive and long-term
rehabilitation.
Hezbollah is a
criminal, terrorist, corrupt, and sectarian organization—an enemy of Lebanon,
humanity, and civilization
Elias Bejjani/November 26/2024
To save Lebanon from the catastrophes caused by the merchants of hypocrisy,
deceit, and the fraudulent resistance narrative, Hezbollah must be brought to
justice. This Iranian-backed jihadist group must be disarmed, stripped of its
ability to operate politically, socially, religiously, and militarily on
Lebanese soil, and firmly designated as a criminal and terrorist organization
worldwide.
Elias Bejjani/Video & Text: A Critique of the Flawed and Sinful Ceasefire
Between Israel and the Terrorist Hezbollah
Elias Bejjani/November 27/ 2024
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2024/11/137307/
The ceasefire agreement between Lebanon and
Hezbollah prioritizes Israel's security while neglecting Lebanon's.
The ceasefire agreement brokered between Israel and the terrorist Hezbollah,
under the auspices of the United States and other international actors, is not a
minor lapse or a momentary oversight. It is a catastrophic and unforgivable
failure that ignores the existential threat posed by this jihadist militia,
which operates as a proxy for Iran's mullah regime. Hezbollah's mission is to
dismantle Lebanon, transform it into a subservient Iranian satellite, and impose
a sectarian, regressive order while simultaneously undermining regional peace
and stability. Globally, it serves Tehran’s ambitions, conducting terrorist
operations in pursuit of the mullahs’ dreams of hegemony and a revived Persian
empire.
By ceasing its military campaign prematurely, Israel squandered a golden
opportunity to eradicate this Iranian proxy. This failure is particularly
glaring given the unprecedented regional and international support available to
achieve such a decisive outcome. For decades, Hezbollah has devastated Lebanon,
jeopardized its sovereignty, and threatened stability across the Middle East.
Israel’s retreat before completing the mission will likely have dire
consequences that extend far beyond Lebanon’s borders.
Since the Syrian occupation ended in 2005, Hezbollah has transformed Lebanon
into an Iranian outpost—a warehouse for arms, a battlefield for Tehran’s wars,
and a hub for global terrorism. It thrives on illicit activities, including arms
smuggling, drug trafficking, money laundering, and assassinations, all executed
with impunity. Under Hezbollah’s dominion, Lebanon has become a failed state,
its government, parliament, judiciary, and even religious authorities reduced to
tools of its occupation.
For nearly two decades, Lebanon’s population has endured unimaginable suffering:
economic collapse, political paralysis, judicial corruption, theft of bank
deposits, and a reign of terror marked by assassinations and coercion. The
Lebanese people are now hostages in their own country, their fate manipulated by
Hezbollah’s whims and Tehran’s directives.
The current ceasefire does nothing to resolve these core issues. Instead, it
delays the inevitable resurgence of violence. The only viable solution lies in
decisive international action, including the invocation of Chapter VII of the UN
Charter to declare Lebanon a failed and rogue state. The United Nations must
assume temporary governance, enforce UN resolutions, The Armistice,
Accord, 1559, 1680, and 1701, and take comprehensive measures to disarm and
dismantle all militias—starting with Hezbollah. Restoring the Lebanese Army as
the sole military authority and empowering the Lebanese people to rebuild their
nation free from the grip of Iranian occupation are essential steps to reclaim
sovereignty.
Hezbollah’s continued existence poses a direct threat not only to Lebanon’s
future but also to Israel’s security and the stability of the entire region.
Allowing this terrorist organization to survive in any capacity guarantees that
Lebanon will remain an Iranian proxy, a battleground for Tehran’s ambitions, and
a platform for global terrorism.
We warn the international community: Hezbollah and its Iranian masters cannot be
trusted to honor any agreements. Hezbollah epitomizes evil—corrupt, sectarian,
and fundamentally opposed to peace, humanity, and civilization. Turning a blind
eye to its crimes under the guise of a ceasefire is a betrayal of Lebanon,
Israel, and the Middle East at large.
In conclusion, half-measures are no longer an option. The international
community must abandon the illusion of temporary solutions and confront the root
of the problem. Only decisive action—disarming Hezbollah and restoring Lebanon’s
sovereignty—can secure lasting peace and stability in the region. Anything less
is a grave disservice to Lebanon, Israel, and the world.
Lebanon’s Hezbollah vows to
continue resistance after ceasefire
Reuters/November 27, 2024
CAIRO: Lebanon’s Hezbollah on Wednesday vowed to continue its resistance and
support Palestinians, including fighters, a day after a ceasefire deal between
the group and Israel was announced. In the first statement by Hezbollah’s
operations center since the deal was announced, the group made no direct mention
of the ceasefire deal. “The Islamic resistance’s operations room affirms that
its fighters in all military disciplines will remain fully equipped to deal with
the aspirations and assaults of the Israeli enemy,” the group said. It added
that its fighters would continue to monitor the withdrawal of Israeli forces
beyond the Lebanese borders “with their hands on the trigger.” The ceasefire
deal includes the withdrawal of Israeli forces from southern Lebanon within 60
days, Israeli officials said. The deal, brokered by the US and France, ended the
deadliest confrontation between Israel and the Iran-backed militant group in
years. Israel is still fighting the Palestinian militant group Hamas, in the
Gaza Strip.
Lebanon Cease-Fire Starts After Israel, Hezbollah Reach
Deal
Dana Khraiche and Galit Altstein/Bloomberg/November 27, 2024
A cease-fire between Israel and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah started
early Wednesday, after the sides reached a deal following weeks of US-mediated
talks.
The development is a first step to ending a war that’s killed thousands of
people and forced more than a million to flee their homes. The US hopes it calms
the Middle East and paves the way toward fresh peace initiatives for the Gaza
Strip, where fighting between Israel and Hamas continues. The 60-day truce began
at 4 a.m. local time. There were celebrations in Beirut, Lebanon’s heavily
bombed capital, and many civilians headed to the south of the country, the
epicenter of a conflict that began about 14 months ago and escalated in
September when Israel stepped up attacks on Hezbollah. Israeli Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu, his Lebanese counterpart Najib Mikati and US President Joe
Biden all made announcements late on Tuesday that a deal had been reached.
Hezbollah, an Iran-backed organization that’s one of the most powerful
militias in the world, and Israel continued to attack each other in the hours
before the agreement. Israel launched multiple strikes on Beirut, including in
central areas that had previously been left alone, and Hezbollah fired drones
and missiles at Israeli territory.
Lebanon Cease-Fire No Guarantee of Wider Peace: Balance of Power
Biden, speaking at the White House, said the truce would “end the devastating
conflict.” The US, along with Egypt, Qatar and Turkey, he said, would make a new
push for a cease-fire in Gaza between Israel and Hamas, another Iran-sponsored
militant group. Hezbollah agreed to a US-drafted
agreement days ago, and the deal was clinched when Israel’s security cabinet
approved it after a meeting that began on Tuesday afternoon.
Oil and gold prices have fallen this week on optimism about a cease-fire,
with investors predicting it will ease geopolitical tensions, including between
Israel and Iran, a major energy producer. The Israeli shekel has strengthened
and prices for the government’s credit-default swaps, which some bond traders
buy as insurance against a default, have dropped. Netanyahu, in the face of
opposition from some Israeli politicians who wanted to continue the campaign and
crush Hezbollah, urged colleagues to accept the cease-fire. That would enable
Israel, he said, to focus on Iran itself, though he didn’t say how. This year,
Iran and Israel have traded direct fire twice. Iran, for its part, welcomed the
cease-fire and reiterated its support for Hezbollah, the most important of its
anti-Israel and anti-US proxy militias often known as the “axis of resistance.”
The Israeli leader also alluded to the strain of sustaining a war that involved
sending ground troops into southern Lebanon in late September and bombing large
areas of the country. Israel’s multi-front conflict, triggered by Hamas’ attack
on the country in October 2023, has stretched the military and weakened its
economy. The cease-fire will “give our forces a breather and replenish stocks,”
Netanyahu said. He vowed that Hezbollah, ideologically opposed to Israel’s
existence, won’t be allowed to regroup and that Israel would respond forcefully
to any violation of the truce. “With the United States’ full understanding, we
maintain full freedom of military action,” Netanyahu said. The sides may start
indirect negotiations over wider issues. Those could include the demarcation of
the Israel-Lebanon border and whether Hezbollah, which is also a political
party, can maintain its military forces. Both Hezbollah and Hamas are designated
terrorist organizations by the US and many other countries.
The truce came after one of Biden’s main Middle East envoys, Amos Hochstein,
shuttled between Israel and Lebanon in an effort to end the conflict before
Donald Trump takes over the White House in January. The agreement drew
objections from some hardline nationalists in Israel. Biden cast it as a step to
lasting stability in the region. Along with the effort to bring the conflict
with Hamas to an end, he said the US also wanted to normalize ties between
Israel and Saudi Arabia — something the wars in Gaza and then Lebanon put on
hold — and establish a “credible pathway” to a Palestinian state. “I believe
this agenda remains possible, and in my remaining time in office I’ll work
tirelessly to advance this vision for an integrated, secure, and prosperous
region, all of which strengthens America’s national security,” Biden said in a
speech in the Rose Garden. Still, there’s little appetite within Israel for a
two-state solution. Netanyahu’s government, the most right-wing in Israel’s
history, is against the idea, with some members saying Hamas’ attack on Oct. 7
last year proves an independent Palestinian state in Gaza and the West Bank
would threaten Israel’s security.
Hamas fighters killed 1,200 people and took 250 hostage when they raided
southern Israeli communities and a musical festival from Gaza. It was the worst
day for Israel, in terms of deaths, since its creation as a state in 1948.
Israel’s subsequent offensive on Gaza has reduced much of it to rubble and
killed about 44,000 people, according to the Hamas-run health ministry in the
Palestinian territory. The United Nations has said many of the 2 million people
in Gaza are facing starvation and that law and order has broken down, making it
difficult for aid groups to distribute food and medicine. Hezbollah started
attacking Israel with drones and missiles on Oct. 8, a day after Hamas’
incursion, in solidarity with the Palestinian group. Israel retaliated by
striking Hezbollah’s positions, mostly in southern Lebanon. The conflict was
largely contained until September when Israel stepped up assaults on Hezbollah
and assassinated most of its senior figures, including long-standing leader
Hassan Nasrallah. Hezbollah long insisted that it wouldn’t agree to a cessation
of hostilities until fighting stopped in Gaza. But it changed its stance as it
suffered severe military losses, with much of its stockpile of missiles and
drones being used up or destroyed by Israeli attacks.
Around 3,100 people have been killed in Lebanon by Israeli strikes and the
ground offensive in the past two months, while 1.2 million — more than a fifth
of the population — have been displaced. About 50 Israeli troops have been
killed in combat in southern Lebanon, while many civilians have died from
Hezbollah fire over the past year.
Tens of thousands of people have been displaced from each side of the
Israel-Lebanon border. Netanyahu has made enabling the return of northern
Israelis to their homes a priority, something that drove his government to
escalate operations against Hezbollah. Many Israelis
from the north are against the cease-fire and say they are still too scared to
go back to their communities because Hezbollah remains a threat. “The Israeli
government yesterday approved a future Oct. 7 attack,” Avichai Stern, the mayor
of Kiryat Shmona, a city on the Lebanese border, said to Israel’s Army Radio.
“When Hezbollah operates from a within a civilian population, which cannot be
monitored or fired on, when weapons are placed among toys and tunnels dug under
baby cribs, the southern villages will continue to pose a threat.”As part of the
cease-fire, Hezbollah is meant to remove its fighters and weapons from the
border region in southern Lebanon, with UN peacekeepers and the Lebanese
military patrolling the area to ensure they don’t return. Hezbollah forces are
supposed to move north of the Litani River, about 30 kilometers (19 miles) from
the border.
That was the requirement of a UN resolution, known as 1701, that ended a 2006
war between the two sides but was never fully implemented by either side.
Gradual Withdrawal
The Israel Defense Forces will move out of Lebanon, though the drawdown will be
gradual and depend on Hezbollah adhering to the agreement, an Israeli security
official said. Hochstein, the US mediator, described
the timeline for Israel’s military to withdraw. “It is not a 60-day cease-fire,”
as the accord has sometimes been described. “This is a permanent cease-fire, or
at least we hope so.”“So within the first 20 days, I expect that we’ll see the
first troops already withdrawing, and then 20 days later, we’ll see about
two-thirds of the troops gone and then the remaining ones at the end,” he said
on CNBC. One obstacle that delayed a cease-fire was
Israel’s insistence on being able to continue striking Hezbollah positions if it
thought the group was breaching the terms of any deal.
Mikati, the Lebanese prime minister, said he was committed to ensuring the deal
works and that Hezbollah sticks to its terms. His government will, he said,
strengthen the presence of the Lebanese army — which is separate from Hezbollah
— in the south. “If Hezbollah chooses to re-arm, we’ll attack,” Netanyahu said.
Israel’s National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir voted against the accord,
the only member of the security cabinet to do so, saying it was “a serious
mistake.” “A cease-fire at this stage will not return the residents of the north
to their homes, will not deter Hezbollah,” he said. Brian Katulis, a former US
official now at the Washington-based Middle East Institute, said the Middle East
will remain on edge despite the Hezbollah-Israel truce. It “won’t easily
translate into a deal to end the war in Gaza or quell broader tensions in the
region because these conflicts have taken on a life of their own,” he said. “The
core regional tensions remain high.”
Qomati from Dahieh: We triumphed as the enemy achieved
none of its goals, and Palestine remains our primary cause and that of the
Arabs—we will not abandon it
NNA/November 27, 2024
The Vice President of Hezbollah’s Political Council, Mahmoud Qomati, visited
Martyrs' Square in the southern suburbs this afternoon, where he paid tribute to
"the sacred and blessed martyrs—Sayyed Nasrallah, Sayyed Hashem Safi Al-Din,
Sheikh Nabil Qaouq, and the jihadist leaders." In his speech, Qomati affirmed,
"We triumphed as the enemy failed to achieve any of its objectives and was
unable to advance along the southern frontlines." He declared, "The
steadfastness of the resistance in the south thwarted the aggression not only
against Lebanon but also against the Middle East."Qomati extended his gratitude
to "the resistance community, to which we will remain loyal," pledging that "we
will rebuild everything destroyed across Lebanon."He stated, "The funerals of
Sayyed Nasrallah and Sayyed Safi Al-Din will serve as a political, official, and
popular referendum to reaffirm support for the resistance."Qomati emphasized
that "the issue of prisoners is serious and fundamental, and we will pursue it
with utmost attention."In response to a question, he said, "Our current focus is
on halting the aggression against Lebanon, which has now stopped, and on
asserting our conditions, which have also been imposed. As for other matters, we
will express our stance on them later." He announced, "We extend our hands to
our partners in the nation to build a Lebanon more beautiful than before." He
concluded, "Palestine is our primary cause and the cause of the Arabs, and we
will not abandon it."
Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire appears to hold as Lebanese stream south to their
homes
TYRE, Lebanon (AP)/November 27/
2024
A ceasefire between Israel and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah that began
Wednesday appeared to be holding, as residents in cars heaped with belongings
streamed back toward southern Lebanon despite warnings from Israeli and Lebanese
troops that they stay away from certain areas.
If it holds, the ceasefire would bring an end to nearly 14 months of fighting
between Israel and Hezbollah, which escalated in mid-September into all-out war
and threatened to pull Hezbollah's patron, Iran, and Israel's closest ally, the
United States, into a broader conflagration. The deal does not address the war
in Gaza., where Israeli strikes overnight on two schools-turned-shelters in Gaza
City killed 11 people, including four children, according to hospital officials.
Israel said one of the strikes targeted a Hamas sniper and the other targeted
militants hiding among civilians.
The truce in Lebanon could give some reprieve to the 1.2 million Lebanese
displaced by the fighting and the tens of thousands of Israelis who fled their
homes along the border. “They were a nasty and ugly 60
days,” said Mohammed Kaafarani, 59, who was displaced from the Lebanese village
of Bidias. “We reached a point where there was no place to hide."The U.S.- and
France-brokered deal, approved by Israel late Tuesday, calls for an initial
two-month halt to fighting and requires Hezbollah to end its armed presence in
southern Lebanon, while Israeli troops are to return to their side of the
border.
Thousands of additional Lebanese troops and U.N. peacekeepers would deploy in
the south, and an international panel headed by the United States would monitor
compliance. Israel says it reserves the right to
strike Hezbollah should it violate the terms of the deal. Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu's office said troops arrested four Hezbollah operatives,
including a local commander, who had entered what it referred to as a restricted
area. It said troops have been ordered to prevent people from returning to
villages near the border.
Israel is still fighting Hamas militants in Gaza in response to the group’s
cross-border raid into southern Israel in October 2023. But President Joe Biden
on Tuesday said his administration would make another push in the coming days to
try to renew efforts for a deal in the war-ravaged Palestinian enclave.
Lebanese are streaming south despite warnings
Hours after the ceasefire came into effect, thousands of people drove south from
Beirut with their belongings and mattresses tied on top of their cars. Traffic
was gridlocked at the northern entrance of the port city of Sidon. “This is a
moment of victory, pride and honor for us, the Shiite sect, and for all of
Lebanon,” said Hussein Sweidan, a resident returning to the port city of Tyre.
He said he saw the ceasefire as a victory for Hezbollah. The Shiite militant
group has often faced criticism from members of Lebanon's other religious
communities.
Sporadic celebratory gunfire was heard at a main roundabout in the city, as
drivers honked their horns and residents cheered. The Israeli military warned
displaced Lebanese not to return to evacuated villages in southern Lebanon,
where Israeli troops were still present following the ground invasion in early
October. The Israeli military said forces opened fire to push back a number of
vehicles that were entering a restricted area. Three journalists, including a
freelance photographer working for The Associated Press, said they were shot and
wounded by Israeli troops while covering the return of displaced people to the
town of Khiam, around 6 kilometers (4 miles) from the border, which had seen
heavy fighting in recent days. The Israeli military said it was investigating.
An Israeli security official said Israeli forces remain in their positions hours
after the ceasefire began and will only gradually withdraw. The official said
the pace of the withdrawal and the scheduled return of Lebanese civilians would
depend on whether the deal is implemented and enforced. The official was not
authorized to discuss the deal and its implementation with the media, and so
spoke on condition of anonymity.
The Lebanese military asked displaced people returning to southern Lebanon to
avoid frontline villages and towns until Israeli forces withdraw. Residents will
return to vast destruction wrought by the Israeli military during its campaign,
which flattened entire villages. The military said it found vast weapons caches
and infrastructure it says was meant for Hezbollah to launch an Oct. 7-style
attack on northern Israel. More than 3,760 people have been killed by Israeli
fire in Lebanon since the start of the conflict, many of them civilians,
according to Lebanese health officials. Some Israelis are concerned the deal
doesn't go far enough.In Israel, the mood was far more subdued, with displaced
Israelis concerned that the deal did not go far enough to rein in Hezbollah and
that it did not address Gaza and the hostages still held there. “I think it is
still not safe to return to our homes because Hezbollah is still close to us,”
said Eliyahu Maman, an Israeli displaced from the northern Israeli city of
Kiryat Shmona, which is not far from the border with Lebanon and was hit hard by
the months of fighting. On Wednesday morning, Kiryat Shmona remained quiet on a
cold, rainy day. A handful of people milled about, inspecting damage from
earlier rocket attacks, including to the roof of a bus. The town’s shopping
mall, which had been hit before, appeared to have new damage, and a rocket was
seen stuck in the ground next to an apartment building.
The fighting killed more than 70 people in Israel, more than half
civilians, as well as dozens of Israeli soldiers fighting in southern Lebanon. A
significant return of the displaced to their communities, many of which have
suffered extensive damage from rocket fire, could take months. Israel can claim
major victories in the war, including the killing of Hezbollah’s top leader
Hassan Nasrallah and most of its senior commanders, as well as the destruction
of extensive militant infrastructure. A complex attack involving exploding
pagers and walkie-talkies, widely attributed to Israel, appeared to show a
remarkable degree of penetration of the secretive militant group. Hezbollah
emerges from the war battered and bloodied, with the reputation it built by
fighting Israel to a stalemate in the 2006 war tarnished. Yet its fighters still
managed to put up heavy resistance on the ground, slowing Israel’s advance while
continuing to fire scores of rockets, missiles and drones across the border each
day.
**Chehayeb reported from Beirut. Goldenberg reported from Tel Aviv, Israel.
Associated Press journalists Alon Bernstein in Haifa, Israel, Leo Correa in
Kiryat Shmona, Israel, and Josef Federman in Jerusalem contributed to this
report.
Ceasefire brings ‘unusual’ calm for northern Israelis,
but fears of Hezbollah threats persist
Jeremy Diamond and Mike Schwartz, CNN/November 27, 2024
A ceasefire deal between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon is now in force, but
many residents of Israel’s northern communities refuse to return home, while
those who have remained say the deal is unlikely to bring permanent peace. The
Israeli security cabinet voted on Tuesday to approve the United States-brokered
deal, ending more than a year of hostilities that have killed thousands. CNN
visited the border town of Shtula on Wednesday just hours after the ceasefire
took effect. The frontline community is just a few hundred feet away from the
Lebanese border, and was once home to some 300 residents, many of whom fled
after the war began last year. Hours into the ceasefire, Shtula remained a ghost
town, with only a handful of residents living there.
While CNN was in the town, a few blasts resembling outgoing artillery could be
heard nearby. At one point, CNN also heard bursts of small arms fire in the
distance.
The town is one of the most dangerous places in northern Israel, having faced
the threat of Hezbollah’s anti-tank missiles for months. Residents worry that
the threat will persist beyond a ceasefire. Ora Hatan, who remained in her home
in Shtula, said the morning of the ceasefire deal was “unusual” after months of
relentless artillery fire. “We wake up to the quiet morning. After one year,
it’s unusual,” Hatan told CNN. “It’s peaceful; we’re not woken by the bombing
and running to the shelters.”When CNN visited the border town in July, it was
given just three minutes by the Israeli military to enter and exit the town, as
the risk of artillery? fire was too high. Hatan’s fears have not, however,
subsided with the ceasefire deal. “I don’t know how long it will hold – this
agreement,” she said. “Nobody knows.”But unlike other northern residents who
would have liked to see Israel deepen its military offensive in Lebanon and
establish a buffer zone in southern Lebanon, Hatan said she does not know what
option the Israeli government had other than to reach a deal.
“What other option that we have? To arrive to Beirut?”
The 60-day ceasefire aims to implement United Nations Security Council
Resolution 1701, a nearly two decade-old agreement that stipulated that the only
armed groups present south of the Litani River should be the Lebanese military
and UN peacekeeping forces. This means that neither
Israeli forces nor Hezbollah fighters are permitted to operate in southern
Lebanon. While the resolution was established in 2006, both Israel and Hezbollah
have accused one another of breaching it multiple times since.
Tuesday’s deal was hailed by world leaders, including US President Joe
Biden, who also sought to reiterate that Israel “retains the right to
self-defense” if Hezbollah “or anyone else” breaks the agreement. Israeli
President Isaac Herzog said the Lebanon ceasefire deal needs to ensure the
safety of residents in northern Israel. “The emerging arrangement will have to
meet only one test – guaranteeing full security for all residents of the north,”
he posted on X Tuesday.
Hezbollah ‘will come back bigger and stronger’
While mediators hope the ceasefire deal and Resolution 1701 could form the basis
of a lasting truce, many northern Israelis are less optimistic.
Before the ceasefire deal came into effect, some residents of the
northern city of Nahariya were skeptical of the viability of a ceasefire deal
between their country and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Nahariya is just six miles (10
kilometers) from the border with Lebanon. Guy Amilani,
a resident of nearby Kibbutz Eilon who was in Nahariya for the afternoon, said
he hoped a ceasefire would now bring peace, but did not believe any cessation of
hostilities would be permanent. “It will be two years
of quiet then they (Hezbollah) will start to shoot again,” he said. “Then in 30
or 40 years, my kids will guard the Kibbutz gates from whatever evil will
come.”An Israeli security official said Wednesday that residents of northern
Israel can decide for themselves when to return home, adding that the decisions
will vary between different communities and their proximity to the border.
Issues relating to reconstruction and damage will also affect when people can
return, the official added. In September, Israel added a new objective to its
ongoing war, turning its focus to the Lebanon border and the thousands of
evacuated citizens. It came as officials and residents of Israel’s northern
region grew increasingly vocal about the need to return to their homes, piling
pressure on the government to act against the threat of Hezbollah’s rockets from
southern Lebanon.
More than 62,000 people have been displaced from northern Israel since Hezbollah
began firing at the Israeli-held Shebaa Farms the day after the Hamas-led
October 7 attacks, triggering more than a year of tit-for-tat strikes. The war
has also displaced more than 94,000 Lebanese across the border, according to the
Lebanese Ministry of Public Health.
Hezbollah has said it fired in solidarity with the Palestinians of Gaza as
Israel began bombarding the strip in response to the October attacks, which
killed approximately 1,200 people in Israel and saw another 251 taken hostage.
‘I can’t tell anybody to come back in this reality’
On Tuesday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told mayors of Israel’s
northernmost communities that he will not immediately push residents to return
to their homes following the ceasefire agreement with Hezbollah, according to a
mayor who attended the meeting. “He said he understands that right now we cannot
go back, but no one is telling us we have to go back,” Kiryat Shmona mayor
Avihay Shtern told CNN. “He understands that there’s still work to do until we
can go back.”The meeting between Netanyahu and the mayors was a contentious one,
coming after several mayors – including Shtern – slammed the ceasefire deal as a
“surrender agreement.”“I left very frustrated,” Shtern said, adding that
Netanyahu did not manage to convince him that the agreement would leave his
community safe. Shtern said he feared Hezbollah would re-infiltrate southern
Lebanon and once again pose a threat to Israel’s northern communities.
While Shtern acknowledged that the Israeli military dealt a severe blow
to Hezbollah in recent months, he did not believe it would be enough to keep
Hamas from regrouping and posing a threat to his community again.“I can’t tell
anybody to come back in this reality,” he said.On Wednesday, Shtern said in a
video statement: “No one is coming home, there is no decision to return.”Ori
Eliyahu, a formerly displaced resident of Shtula who returned to the border town
two months ago, panned the Israeli government as a “joke” for negotiating a
ceasefire agreement. “They’ve done nothing. An anti-tank missile was shot here
two days ago,” Eliyahu said Tuesday. While he has returned, he said residents
with children were unlikely to do so – distrusting the deal with Hezbollah.
“Of course we do not trust them (Hezbollah),” he said.
Hochstein: Israeli Forces to Withdraw Before Lebanese
Army Deploys in South
Asharq Al-Awsat/November 27/2024
US envoy Amos Hochstein confirmed on Wednesday that Israeli forces will withdraw
from southern areas before the Lebanese army deploys, a day after an
announcement of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah. In televised
statements to Lebanese media, Hochstein added, "(Hezbollah) has violated
resolution 1701 for more than two decades, and if it violates resolutions again,
we will put the necessary mechanisms in place."US President Joe Biden announced
a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah yesterday, which came into effect at 4
am local time. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the agreement
would allow his country, which will retain "freedom of movement" in Lebanon,
according to him, to "focus on the Iranian threat" and "isolate" the Hamas
movement in the Gaza Strip. French President Emmanuel Macron said the ceasefire
in Lebanon should "pave the way for a long-awaited ceasefire" in Gaza. The
Lebanese army announced today that it has begun transferring military units to
the southern Litani sector to begin reinforcing its deployment in the sector, in
coordination with the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL),
following the ceasefire agreement with Israel, which came into effect hours ago.
The army said in a statement that this comes "in accordance with the Lebanese
government's commitment to implement Security Council resolution 1701 in all its
aspects, and the related commitments, especially those related to strengthening
the deployment of the army and all security forces in the southern Litani
area."It added that the concerned military units "are undergoing a transfer
process from several areas to the southern Litani sector, where they will be
stationed in their designated locations."Earlier, Lebanese Prime Minister Najib
Mikati had announced that Lebanon would reinforce the army's deployment in the
south as part of the implementation of the ceasefire agreement. Mikati said
after a cabinet session that the cabinet reaffirmed its commitment to decision
"number one, dated 11/10/2014, in the part concerning the Lebanese government's
commitment to implement Security Council resolution 1701... in all its aspects,
especially with regard to strengthening the deployment of the army and all
security forces in the southern Litani area." At the same time, he called for
"the enemy Israel to abide by the ceasefire decision and withdraw from all areas
and positions it occupied, in full implementation of resolution 1701."
Resolution 1701 established a cessation of hostilities between Israel and
Hezbollah after a devastating war they fought in the summer of 2006. The
resolution also calls for a complete Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon, and for
the strengthening of the deployment of the United Nations Interim Force in
Lebanon (UNIFIL) and the confinement of military presence in the border area to
the Lebanese army and the international force. Mikati expressed hope that the
truce would be "a new page in Lebanon... leading to the election of a president"
after two years of vacancy in the position amid sharp political differences
between Hezbollah, an ally of Iran, and its political opponents. For his part,
the Speaker of the Lebanese Parliament and leader of the Amal Movement, Nabih
Berri, called on the displaced people as a result of the war between Israel and
Hezbollah to return to their areas with the start of the ceasefire. He said in a
televised speech, "I call on you to return to your proud homelands... Return to
your land that cannot become more majestic and impregnable except with your
presence and your return to it." He also called for "speeding up the election of
a president" after two years of vacancy in the position.
The United States and France, as well as the United Nations Interim Force in
Lebanon (UNIFIL), are expected to oversee the implementation of the ceasefire
agreement, and Hochstein said that his country would support the Lebanese army,
which will deploy in the area. He affirmed, "We will support the Lebanese army
more broadly, and the United States is its biggest supporter, and we will work
with the international community side by side."
Israel's Chief of Staff, Herzi Halevi: "The fighting in
Lebanon was very decisive, but enforcing the agreement will be even more
decisive.
X site & LCCC/November 27/2024
Israel's Chief of Staff, Herzi Halevi said that the
fighting in Lebanon was very decisive, but enforcing the agreement will be even
more decisive.Decisively, according to the rules that were approved yesterday by
the Minister of Defense, the Prime Minister, and the mini-security cabinet.
Hezbollah elements who approach our forces, the border area, and the villages in
the area we have defined - will be targeted. We do not intend to engage in
months of war and displace people from their homes without returning them safely
now. There are forces in the field, ground forces and from the Northern Command,
they will be the first to confront those who return to the villages in a
deterrent manner, with fire, and with capabilities and cooperation with most of
the air force. There are aircraft in the air around the clock, and naval vessels
collecting intelligence and also capable of attacking in the western sector. We
are preparing and getting ready for the possibility of non-compliance with this
situation, we will re-evaluate, we will take stricter measures, they will be
stronger, and we are very determined to impose the rules and create a completely
different reality for the residents of the north."
Summary in simpler terms:
Israel's Chief of Staff, Herzi Halevi, has stated that the recent conflict in
Lebanon was intense, but Israel will be even more forceful in enforcing the
ceasefire agreement. Israel has made it clear that any Hezbollah members who
approach Israeli forces or designated areas will be targeted. They have deployed
significant ground and air forces to the region to ensure compliance. If the
ceasefire is violated, Israel has warned that it will take even stronger and
more decisive actions to establish control and create a new reality in the
region.
Key points from the translation:
Israel views the recent conflict as a decisive victory.
They will be extremely forceful in enforcing the ceasefire agreement.
Any Hezbollah members who violate the agreement will be targeted.
Israel has deployed significant military forces to the region.
Israel is prepared to take even stronger action if the ceasefire is violated.
Israel aims to create a new reality in the region, where Hezbollah is deterred
from further aggression.
Berri Says War with Israel ‘Most Dangerous Phase’ in
Lebanon’s History
Asharq Al-Awsat/November 27/2024
The speaker of Lebanon's parliament, Nabih Berri, said on Wednesday the war with
Israel had been the "most dangerous phase" his country had endured in its
history, hours after a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah came into effect.
A ceasefire between Israel and Iran-backed group Hezbollah came into effect on
Wednesday after both sides accepted an agreement brokered by the US and France,
a rare victory for diplomacy in a region traumatized by two devastating wars for
over a year. Lebanon's army, which is tasked with helping make sure the
ceasefire holds, said in a statement on Wednesday it was preparing to deploy to
the south of the country. The military also asked that residents of border
villages delay returning home until the Israeli military, which has waged war
against Hezbollah on several occasions and pushed around six km (4 miles) into
Lebanese territory, withdraws. The agreement, which
promises to end a conflict across the Israeli-Lebanese border that has killed
thousands of people since it was ignited by the Gaza war last year, is a major
achievement for the US in the waning days of President Joe Biden's
administration. Biden spoke at the White House on
Tuesday shortly after Israel's security cabinet approved the agreement in a 10-1
vote. He said he had spoken to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and
Lebanon's caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati, and that fighting would end at
4 a.m. local time (0200 GMT). Israel will gradually withdraw its forces over 60
days as Lebanon's army takes control of territory near its border with Israel to
ensure that Hezbollah does not rebuild its infrastructure there, Biden said.
Lebanon's Berri reprises key mediator role in ceasefire
deal
Maya Gebeily and Timour Azhari/Reuters/November 27, 2024
BEIRUT (Reuters) - Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri reprised his role as
a key interlocutor between Hezbollah and the United States as Washington sought
to mediate an end to the war with Israel, drawing on decades of experience to
help clinch the deal. It has underlined the sway the
86-year-old still holds over Lebanon, particularly the Shi'ite Muslim community
in which he has loomed large for decades, and has been seen as a steadying
influence since Israel killed Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, the head of the
Iran-backed Hezbollah, in September. Addressing Lebanese in a televised speech
on Wednesday, Berri said Lebanon was closing "a historical moment that was the
most dangerous that Lebanon has ever experienced", and appealed to Lebanese to
show unity for the sake of Lebanon. Berri rose to prominence as head of the
Shi'ite Amal Movement during Lebanon's 1975-90 civil war. He has served as
parliament speaker - the highest role for a Shi'ite in Lebanon's sectarian order
- since 1992. Hezbollah's new leader Sheikh Naim Qassem endorsed Berri as a
negotiator, calling him the group's "big brother."U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein met
Berri repeatedly during numerous visits to Beirut aiming to broker an end to the
hostilities which were fought in parallel with the Gaza war and escalated
dramatically in September. It echoed the role Berri played in helping to bring
an end to the last major war between Hezbollah and Israel in 2006. Diplomats say
his role has been all the more important because Lebanon is without a president,
its cabinet has only partial authority, and there are few ways to access
Hezbollah, which is branded a terrorist group by the United States. "When you
come to Lebanon now, he is really the only person worth meeting. He is the
state," a Beirut-based diplomat said. He rose to
global prominence in 1985 by helping negotiate the release of 39 Americans held
hostage in Beirut by Shi'ite militants who hijacked a U.S. airliner during
Lebanon's 15-year civil war. His election as speaker after the civil war
coincided with Nasrallah's rise to leadership of Hezbollah. Together, they led
the "Shi'ite duo," a reference to the two parties that dominated Shi'ite
political representation and much of the state. A diplomat who frequently visits
Berri said: "He's the trusted partner of Hezbollah, which makes him very
important, but there is also a clear limit to what he can do, be it due to
Hezbollah or Iranian stances."Israeli fire has hit areas where Berri's Amal
Movement holds sway, including the city of Tyre.
IMPROVING SHI'ITES' STANDING
Born in 1938 in Sierra Leone to an emigrant merchant family from Tibnine, Berri
was raised in Lebanon and was active in politics by the time he was at
university. Many in the once downtrodden Shi'ite community applaud Berri for
helping improve their standing in a sectarian system where privileges were
skewed towards Christians and Sunni Muslims. A trained
lawyer, Berri took the helm of Amal after its founder, Imam Musa Sadr,
disappeared during a visit to Libya. Berri was behind the military rise of Amal,
which fought against nearly all the main parties to the civil war including
Hezbollah, which later became an ally. After the civil war, Berri's Shi'ite
followers joined the state apparatus and security agencies en masse, and he
appeared to move in political lockstep with Hezbollah.
When a 2006 U.S. embassy cable raised questions over his true feelings towards
Hezbollah on its publication in 2010, he dismissed it, declaring that Nasrallah
"is like myself". In 2023, Berri's Amal fighters
joined Hezbollah in firing rockets against Israel in solidarity with Gaza when
Israel began its offensive after Hamas's Oct. 7 attack on southern Israel.
Foreign envoys began visiting Beirut and meeting Berri to try to halt
exchanges of fire across the Israel-Lebanon border, and sought to convince
Hezbollah to withdraw north of the Litani River running some 30 km (20 miles)
north of the frontier. Berri told one foreign official "it would be easier to
move the Litani River south to the border than to push Hezbollah north of the
Litani," a source close to Berri told Reuters. But Berri's opponents have also
criticised him as part of the sectarian elite that steered Lebanon into economic
ruin in 2019, when the financial system collapsed after decades of state
corruption. Others blame him for refusing to call a parliamentary session for
lawmakers to elect a president, leaving the top Christian post in government
empty for more than two years. Berri's role as a diplomatic conduit has irked
Hezbollah's political rivals, such as the Christian Lebanese Forces, who say any
negotiations must be carried out by Lebanon's president.
*(Reporting by Timour Azhari, Laila Bassam and Maya Gebeily; Writing by Tom
Perry, Timour Azhari and Maya Gebeily; Editing by Timothy Heritage)
Hezbollah faces long recovery, officials fear thousands of fighters lost to
Israel offensive
Laila Bassam, Tom Perry and Maya Gebeily/Reuters/November 27, 2024
With the bodies of its fighters still strewn on the battlefield, Hezbollah must
bury its dead and provide succour to its supporters who bore the brunt of
Israel's offensive, as the first steps on a long and costly road to recovery,
four senior officials said. Hezbollah believes the number of its fighters killed
during 14 months of hostilities could reach several thousand, with the vast
majority killed since Israel went on the offensive in September, three sources
familiar with its operations say, citing previously unreported internal
estimates. One source said the Iran-backed group may
have lost up to 4,000 people - well over 10 times the number killed in its
month-long 2006 war with Israel. So far, Lebanese authorities have said some
3,800 people were killed in the current hostilities, without distinguishing
fighters from civilians. Hezbollah emerges shaken from top to bottom, its
leadership still reeling from the killing of its former leader Sayyed Hassan
Nasrallah and its supporters made homeless en masse by the carpet bombing of
Beirut's southern suburbs and the destruction of entire villages in the south.
With a ceasefire taking hold on Wednesday, Hezbollah's agenda includes working
to re-establish its organisational structure fully, probing security breaches
that helped Israel land so many painful blows, and a full review of the last
year including its mistakes in underestimating Israel's technological
capabilities, three other sources familiar with the group's thinking said.
For this story Reuters spoke to a dozen people who together provided
details of some of the challenges facing Hezbollah as it seeks to pick itself up
after the war. Most asked not to be named to speak about sensitive matters.
Hassan Fadallah, a senior Hezbollah politician, told Reuters the priority will
be "the people." "To shelter them, to remove the rubble, to bid farewell to the
martyrs and, in the next phase, to rebuild," he said. Israel's campaign has
focused largely on Hezbollah's Shi'ite Muslim heartlands, where its supporters
were badly hit. They include people still nursing casualties from Israel's
attack on its mobile communications devices in September. "I have a brother who
was martyred, a brother-in-law who was wounded in the pager attacks, and my
neighbours and relatives are all either martyrs, wounded or missing," said
Hawraa, a woman from south Lebanon with family members who fight for Hezbollah.
"We want to collect our martyrs and bury them ... we want to rebuild our homes,"
said Hawraa, who stayed in her village until she was forced to flee by the
Israeli assault in September. She declined to use her full name, citing safety
fears. The Israeli offensive displaced more than 1
million people, the bulk of them from areas where Hezbollah has sway. A senior
Lebanese official familiar with Hezbollah thinking said the group's focus would
be squarely on securing their return and rebuilding their homes: "Hezbollah is
like a wounded man. Does a wounded man get up and fight? A wounded man needs to
tend to his wounds." The official expected Hezbollah to carry out a wide-ranging
policy review after the war, dealing with all major issues: Israel, its weapons,
and the internal politics of Lebanon, where its weapons have long been a point
of conflict.
Iran, which established Hezbollah in 1982, has promised to help with
reconstruction. The costs are immense: The World Bank estimates $2.8 billion in
damage to housing alone in Lebanon, with 99,000 homes partially or fully
destroyed. The senior Lebanese official said Tehran has a variety of ways to get
funds to Hezbollah, without giving details. Parliament
Speaker Nabih Berri, a close Hezbollah ally, is urging wealthy Lebanese Shi'ites
in the diaspora to send funds to help the displaced, two Lebanese officials
said.
The officials also expected significant donations to come from Shi'ite religious
foundations across the region. Hezbollah did not immediately respond to a
detailed request for comment for this story. Iran's foreign ministry did not
immediately respond to a request for comment.
'THE RESISTANCE' WILL CONTINUE
Hezbollah has indicated it intends to keep its arms, dashing hopes of Lebanese
adversaries who predicted the pressures generated by the war would finally lead
it to hand them to the state. Hezbollah officials have said the resistance -
widely understood to mean its armed status - will continue. Hezbollah opened
fire in support of Palestinian ally Hamas on Oct. 8, 2023. Israel went on the
offensive against the group in September, declaring the aim of securing the
return home of 60,000 people evacuated from homes in the north.
Despite the resulting devastation, Hezbollah's Fadlallah said the
resistance put up by its fighters in south Lebanon and the group's intensified
rocket salvoes towards the end of the conflict showed Israel had failed. Israeli
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says its campaign has set back Hezbollah
decades, eliminated its top leaders, destroyed most of its rockets, neutralised
thousands of fighters, and obliterated its infrastructure near the border.
A senior U.S. official said Hezbollah was "extremely weak" at this
moment, both militarily and politically. A Western diplomat echoed that
assessment, saying Israel had the upper hand and had almost dictated the terms
of its withdrawal. The ceasefire terms agreed by Israel and Lebanon require
Hezbollah to have no military presence in an area between the Israeli border and
the Litani River, which meets the Mediterranean Sea some 30 km (20 miles) from
the frontier. Hezbollah, which approved the deal, has not declared how it
intends to help implement those terms, including whether it actively hands its
arms to Lebanese troops who are deploying into the south, or leaves the weapons
for soldiers to find. Israel complains Hezbollah, which is deeply rooted in
south Lebanon, never implemented the same terms when they were agreed to end a
previous war in 2006 war. Israel says the group was preparing for a large-scale
assault into northern Israel, pointing to its military build-up at the frontier.
Andreas Krieg of King's College in London said Hezbollah had retained
considerable capability. The performance of its "core infantry fighters in
southern Lebanon and rocket attacks deep into Israeli territory in recent days
showed the group was still very, very capable," he said. "But Hezbollah will be
very much bogged down in the effort of rebuilding the infrastructure and also,
most importantly, securing the funds to do so,” he said.
'REPAYING THE DEBT'
Hezbollah has been handing out cash to people affected by the hostilities since
they began, paying $200 a month to civilians who stayed in frontline villages,
and offering more as people were forced to flee the areas, according to
recipients. Since the start of the escalation in September, Hezbollah has been
paying around $300 a month to help displaced families. The group has made no
secret of the military and financial support it gets from Iran, which shipped
huge sums of cash to in 2006 to aid the homeless and help rebuild.
Hezbollah supporters say more will be on the way. One, citing
conversations with a local Hezbollah official, said the group would cover a year
of rent for the homeless in addition to furniture costs. Addressing the Lebanese
people in an October sermon, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said
"the destruction will be replaced... repaying the debt to the wounded, bleeding
Lebanon is our duty...". The World Bank, in a preliminary estimate, put the cost
in damage and losses to Lebanon at $8.5 billion, a bill that cannot be footed by
the government, still suffering the consequences of a catastrophic financial
collapse five years ago. Gulf states Qatar, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia helped pay
the $5 billion reconstruction bill in 2006, the last time Hezbollah and Israel
went to war. But there has been no sign that these Sunni-led Arab states are
ready to do so again. Hezbollah conducted a lot of reconstruction work after the
2006 war, financed by Iran and using its construction wing. The project was
directed by Sayyed Hashem Safieddine, a Hezbollah leader killed by Israel 11
days after Nasrallah, in a sign of the bigger challenges it will face this time
round. "For Hezbollah the priority is to guarantee the loyalty of the Shi’ite
community. The destruction has been enormous and it will impact the
organization," said Mohanand Hage Ali of the Carnegie Middle East Center.
Factbox-Costs of Israel-Hezbollah conflict on Lebanon,
Israel
Reuters/November 27, 2024
Israel and Lebanon's Hezbollah ceased fire under a deal that aims to end more
than a year of hostilities ignited by the Gaza conflict. Here are some of the
main costs of the conflict, which escalated two months ago when Israel went on
the offensive against the Iran-backed group.
CASUALTIES
At least 3,768 people have been killed in Lebanon and 15,699 wounded since
October 2023, according to Lebanon's health ministry as of Nov. 24. The figures
do not differentiate between Hezbollah fighters and civilians. The vast majority
of casualties were inflicted after Israel went on the offensive in September.
The number of Hezbollah dead has yet to emerge. The group had announced the
deaths of about 500 of its fighters in the hostilities up until the point that
Israel launched its offensive in September, but stopped doing so at that point.
Tel Aviv University's Institute for National Security Studies, which has deep
ties to the military establishment, says Hezbollah has lost a total of 2,450.
Hezbollah strikes have killed 45 civilians in northern Israel and the
Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. At least 73 Israeli soldiers have been killed in
northern Israel, the Golan Heights, and in combat in southern Lebanon, according
to Israeli authorities.
DESTRUCTION
In Lebanon, the cost of damage to housing is estimated at $2.8 billion, with
more than 99,000 housing units partially or fully destroyed, according a World
Bank report. In Beirut's southern suburb alone, a
stronghold of Hezbollah, Israeli strikes have demolished at least 262 buildings,
according to the American University Beirut Urban Lab.The Israeli military has
also done extensive damage in villages and towns in the Bekaa Valley and south
Lebanon, both areas where Hezbollah holds sway. The World Bank report estimated
damage in agriculture at $124 million, with losses of more than $1.1 billion,
driven by lost harvest caused by destruction of crops and livestock and
displacement of farmers. In Israel, Israeli
authorities estimate property damage to be at least 1 billion shekels ($273
million), with thousands of homes, farms and businesses damaged or destroyed.
The bulk of the damage in Israel has been inflicted in areas adjacent to
the Lebanese border, pummelled by Hezbollah rockets. About 55,000 acres of
forestry, nature reserve, parks and open lands in northern Israel and the Golan
heights have been burnt down since the start of the war, Israeli authorities
say.
DISPLACEMENT
As of Nov. 18, over 886,000 people have been displaced within Lebanon, according
to International Organization for Migration (IOM) and United Nations High
Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). Over 540,000 people have fled Lebanon to
Syria since the war started, data by UNHCR showed. In Israel, some 60,000 people
evacuated homes in the north.
ECONOMIC IMPACT
The World Bank gave a preliminary estimate of $8.5 billion in damage and losses
to Lebanon in a Nov. 14 report. Lebanon's real GDP is projected to contract by
5.7% in 2024, compared to a pre-conflict growth estimate of 0.9%. Driven by the
destruction of crops and livestock and the displacement of farmers, especially
in the southern regions, the agriculture sector has seen losses exceeding $1.1
billion over the past 12 months. Tourism and hospitality, key contributors to
Lebanon’s economy, have been hit hardest, with losses reaching $1.1 billion,
according to the World Bank. For Israel, the conflict with Hezbollah has
compounded the economic impact of the war in Gaza, straining public finances.
The budget deficit has surged to approximately 8% of GDP, prompting all
three major credit rating agencies to downgrade Israel's rating this year. The
conflict has also exacerbated supply chain disruptions, driving inflation to
3.5%, above the central bank's 1-3% target range. In response, the central bank
has maintained high interest rates to curb inflation, keeping mortgage rates
elevated and adding further pressure on households.
Israel's economy in the third quarter rebounded somewhat from a weak second
quarter, expanding by an annualised 3.8%, according to the government's
preliminary estimate.
Israel’s path to victory: Dismantling Khamenei’s regime
by 2040
Mark Dubowitz & Jacob Nagel/The Jerusalem Post/November 27, 2024
To provide security for Israel, it is not enough to work harder at deterrence.
Khamenei’s deadline, the year 2040, demands a bold counter-strategy: dismantle
his regime. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has
a clear mission: destroy Israel by 2040. The supreme leader has shown that
Israel’s pursuit of deterrence can only delay his aggression, not stop it. So
Israel now finds itself in a seven-front war against Tehran and its terror
proxies. To provide security for Israel, it is not enough to work harder at
deterrence. Khamenei’s deadline, the year 2040, demands a bold counter-strategy:
dismantle his regime. Israel must redefine its mission as not just surviving
Khamenei’s threats but neutralizing their source. Ending Khameni’s dictatorship
is not a fantasy but a clear and achievable objective. Despite its aggression,
the clerical regime is brittle. The Iranian people loathe Khamenei and his
minions because they have driven the economy into the ground but made themselves
wealthy with corruption. Those who dissent find themselves in prison, subject to
rape and torture. Those who protest risk their lives against security forces
using live ammunition. But the protests continue, and the people still chant,
“Not Gaza, not Lebanon, my life for Iran.” It is possible the people will
overthrow the regime on their own. Yet Khamenei has learned from Bashar al-Assad
how to put down a revolution: torture, kill, and gas both the peaceful and the
violent opposition. However, help from abroad can tip the balance of power
against the regime. Aiding the opposition is not cost-free, but it can eliminate
an array of threats that have forced Israel to spend great sums, year after
year, on defense. The Islamic Republic of Iran is the most prolific state
sponsor of terrorism, with Israel as its principal target. It is a destabilizing
force across the Middle East, working to derail the Abraham Accords and the
desire for peace with Israel. It has encircled Israel with a ring of fire of
terrorist armies. It trained, funded, and equipped Hamas to murder Israelis on
October 7. And it is approaching the brink of nuclear weapons capability,
enabling Khamenei to achieve his genocidal objective.
Toppling the regime is fully consistent with a continuing campaign against the
Iranian nuclear program. The Israel Air Force (IAF) has shown it can destroy
Iran’s supposedly formidable strategic air defenses. Israel’s covert operations
have demonstrated an ability to eliminate thousands of Hezbollah personnel at
once or just a single Hamas leader in Tehran. These victories demonstrate an
ability to overcome entrenched adversaries with precise intelligence, advanced
technologies, and impressive air operations. The IAF already struck one
component of the Iranian nuclear program last month and can do much more.
Sanctions, covert ops, and diplomacy to counter Iran
A joint US-Israel operation would exponentially increase the chances of success
of the campaign against Khamenei’s nuclear program. Working together would
combine Israel’s operational precision with American firepower, logistical
capabilities, and diplomatic leverage. Preemptive strikes, cyber warfare to
disrupt command systems, and covert actions to sabotage nuclear components could
form the backbone of this effort. With Donald Trump
returning to the White House, the Islamic Republic is likely to face the return
of crippling sanctions as part of Trump’s policy of “maximum pressure.” In his
first term, sanctions decimated Tehran’s oil revenues, drained its foreign
exchange reserves, triggered painful inflation, collapsed Iran’s currency, and
constrained its ability to fund its terror network. The president’s critics
warned that outside pressure would force Iran’s proud and patriotic people to
stand behind the regime. The critics were wrong. The Islamic Republic is an
alien entity in Iran, and the people know it is the root cause of their misery.
Thus, the return of maximum pressure will help to set the conditions for another
uprising.
Accordingly, Israel must work with allies, especially the United States, to
reimpose and expand sanctions, targeting not only Iran’s nuclear program but
also its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the regime’s lifeline for
exporting terrorism and oppression. Diplomatically, Israel can increase pressure
on Tehran by building on the Abraham Accords, in particular by finalizing a
peace deal with Saudi Arabia. Iran’s support for Russia in Ukraine has
antagonized the European government, which may now be willing to exert
additional diplomatic pressure. Israel’s intelligence and covert operations are
another critical pillar of this strategy, targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities,
nuclear weapons scientists, IRGC leadership, cyber capabilities, and financial
networks. These operations should escalate and focus on the regime’s critical
nodes of power.
Finally, Israel must amplify its support for the Iranian people. By empowering
dissidents with communications platforms, labor strike funds, and actionable
intelligence against the regime, Israel can increase the odds that the Iranian
people succeed when they seek to throw off their yoke of oppression. If the
people choose to resist regime violence with force of their own, then they
deserve weapons, too. If Khamenei’s mission is to annihilate Israel by 2040,
then Israel’s mission must be to dismantle his regime. All elements of Israeli
power, with support from the incoming US administration, must be mobilized.
Survival is not enough. Victory is the only option. That means ensuring
Khamenei’s regime becomes a relic of history long before its destructive
timeline reaches fruition.
*Brig. Gen. (res.) Jacob Nagel is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense
of Democracies (FDD) and a professor at the Technion. He served as National
Security Advisor to Prime Minister Netanyahu and as acting head of the National
Security Council. Mark Dubowitz is FDD’s chief executive and an expert on Iran’s
nuclear program and sanctions. In 2019, he was sanctioned by Iran.
‘Designed To Be Permanent’: Israel Agrees to Ceasefire
Agreement With Hezbollah
FDD-Policy Brief/November 27/2024
• Israel to Withdraw Forces From Southern Lebanon: Israel’s cabinet accepted an
American- and French-brokered ceasefire agreement on November 26 that would end
fighting between Israel and the Iran-backed Hezbollah terrorist group in Lebanon
at 4 a.m. on November 27. Under the deal, which largely reinforces UN Security
Council Resolution 1701 of 2006, Israeli forces will have 60 days to withdraw
from southern Lebanon. Hezbollah is required to withdraw north of the Litani
River, and the Lebanese Armed Forces would be tasked with securing the territory
between the river and the Israeli border 18 miles to its south, dismantling
Hezbollah’s infrastructure, and ensuring that its forces and UNIFIL, the UN
peacekeeping force in Lebanon, are the only armed personnel in the area. The
agreement also includes the establishment of a committee composed of the United
States, France, and the United Kingdom to monitor violations of the agreement.
The Lebanese government, which serves as an intermediary with Hezbollah and must
also approve the agreement, is expected to meet for discussions on November 27.
• Netanyahu Urges Support For Deal: In a televised speech following a cabinet
meeting in which the deal was approved, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin urged
his coalition to accept the deal. Netanyahu said that there were three primary
reasons that he supported the deal. First, it was to focus on Iran, which funds
and supports an axis of anti-Israel terrorist groups, including Hezbollah;
second, to rest and replenish Israel’s armed forces with advanced weaponry; and
third, to isolate Hamas, which has welcomed the participation of Hezbollah and
other Iranian proxies in the war it sparked with its massacre in Israel on
October 7, 2023. Netanyahu’s appeal came at the end of a day that saw Hezbollah
launch attacks on Israel’s north, including Haifa, Nahariya, Acre, and the
Galilee, and Israeli air strikes on Hezbollah’s strongholds around Beirut,
Sidon, Tyre, and the Beqaa Valley.
• Biden Hopes to Prevent Cycle of Violence: President Joe Biden said in a
televised speech after speaking with Netanyahu that the agreement was “designed
to be a permanent cessation of hostilities.” He lamented the civilians on both
sides who were forced to evacuate their homes along the border due to the
fighting, adding that the deal would finally allow the Lebanese army to “deploy
and take control over their territory.” Addressing the war in Gaza, Biden
stressed that “Hamas has a choice to make. Their only way out is to release the
hostages, including American citizens.”
FDD Expert Response
“While the ceasefire will hopefully provide some welcome relief after several
months of fighting, what’s not negotiable is Israel’s right to deal with the
continued threat posed by Hezbollah. The Iran-backed terrorist group has been
severely diminished by Israel’s actions over the course of this year, but it has
not been destroyed. Given that the Lebanese Armed Forces cannot be relied upon
to counter a Hezbollah resurgence, that task will fall upon Israel’s shoulders.
Israel must be free to strike Hezbollah when it detects an imminent threat
without approval from anyone, ceasefire or no ceasefire. Everything depends on
the Israeli response to violations — that alone will determine the agreement’s
success.” — Mark Dubowitz, CEO
“This deal is only a cosmetic upgrade from UN Security Council Resolution 1701.
It repeats that resolution’s failure of depending on Lebanon to act against
Hezbollah, when Lebanon has consistently demonstrated both its unwillingness and
its inability to act against the group. That, coupled with caveats on Israeli
freedom of action in Lebanon, sets the stage for Hezbollah’s slow and patient
regeneration in time.” — David Daoud, Senior Fellow
“While many in Israel are keen to see the end of a long war, the looming
question is whether Israelis will feel safe enough to go back to their homes in
northern Israel given the terms of the ceasefire. Much of this decision will
come down to Israelis’ confidence in their government and the IDF to protect
these border communities, a trust that was severely shaken on October 7, 2023.”
— Enia Krivine, Senior Director of FDD’s Israel Program and National Security
Network
“Hamas is likely to publicly support Hezbollah’s decision to accept a ceasefire
with Israel. However, the Gaza-based terrorist group is also aware that an end
to hostilities in Lebanon will deal an unwanted blow to Hamas itself, as well as
its Palestinian allies, Hezbollah and the broader Iranian-led axis. Furthermore,
a ceasefire in Lebanon could weaken Hamas’s position, potentially granting
Israel the leverage required to dictate the terms of a resolution to the war in
Gaza. The war against Hezbollah is not over, but Israel achieved a significant
victory in Lebanon that may lead to a positive outcome in Gaza.” — Joe Truzman,
Senior Research Analyst and Editor at FDD’s Long War Journal
Lebanese Army Says It’s Moving Troops into the Country’s
South as Part of Ceasefire Plan
Asharq Al-Awsat/November 27/2024
The Lebanese army said on Wednesday it was moving additional troops into the
country's south on Wednesday to extend state authority in coordination with the
UN peacekeeping mission there. “The concerned military units are moving from
several areas to the South Litani Sector, where they will be stationed in the
locations designated for them,” the Lebanese military said in its first
statement since the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire went into effect. Under the
ceasefire deal, Israeli troops would pull out of Lebanon and Hezbollah is
required to move its forces north of the Litani River, which in some places is
about 30 kilometers (20 miles) north of the border. The ceasefire agreement
gives Israel and Hezbollah fighters 60 days to withdraw from areas of southern
Lebanon near the border. Thousands of Lebanese troops and UN peacekeepers will
patrol the area, and an international committee will monitor compliance. The
Lebanese army has largely stood on the sidelines during the latest war between
Israel and Hezbollah, although dozens of its soldiers have been killed amid the
fighting. Meanwhile, international aid groups welcomed the ceasefire and urge
donors to provide funding to help rebuild parts of Lebanon and assist the
displaced. The aid groups are concerned about the aftershocks of the war on
Lebanon’s already struggling economy. With more than 1.2 million people
displaced, they warned that the damage would leave many struggling and without
homes. More than 100,000 homes have been either partially or fully destroyed
across southern Lebanon, Bekaa and Beirut, the International Rescue Committee
said. Mercy Corps said that half of Lebanon’s population now lives below the
poverty line. It called on donors to fulfill pledges to support immediate
humanitarian efforts and the long-term recovery. “There will undoubtedly be a
great deal of grief and trauma. Many will have no homes to return to, no schools
for their children, and livelihoods destroyed,” Norwegian Refugee Council
Secretary-General Jan Egeland said.
Lebanese Begin Grim Task of Recovering Bodies from Rubble
Asharq Al-Awsat/November 27/2024
In the southern Lebanon border villages of Bint Jbeil and Ainata, where fierce
fighting between Israel and Hezbollah fighters took place, rescuers used
excavators began searching on Wednesday for bodies under the rubble. A woman in
Ainata wrapped in black cried as she held a portrait her grandson, a Hezbollah
fighter, who was killed in the fighting, as she waits for rescuers to recover
his body from a destroyed home. The smell of death
filled the air and several dead bodies could be seen inside houses and between
trees. In the town of Kfar Hammam, rescuers recovered four bodies, according to
Lebanese state media. Meanwhile, families and politicians visited the graves of
Hezbollah fighters buried in eastern Lebanon's Baalbek region. Families with
tears in their eyes paid respects to the dead and celebratory gunshots could be
heard in the background Wednesday, the first day of a ceasefire between the
group and Israel. “The resistance (Hezbollah) will
stay to defend Lebanon,” Hezbollah lawmaker Ali Mokdad told reporters while
visiting the graves. “We tell the enemy that the martyrs thwarted their plans
for the Middle East.” Several other Hezbollah members of parliament were
present.
France Highlights Its Role in Brokering Lebanon Ceasefire
Deal
Asharq Al-Awsat/November 27/2024
France’s foreign minister underlined his country’s role in brokering an
agreement that ended fighting between Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah group
alongside the US, saying the deal wouldn’t have been possible without France’s
special relationship with its former protectorate.
“It’s a success for French diplomacy and we can be proud,” said the minister,
Jean-Noël Barrot, speaking hours after the ceasefire went into effect Wednesday.
“It is true that the United States have a privileged relationship with
Israel. But with Lebanon, it’s France that has very old ties, very close ties,”
the minister added. “It would not have been possible to envisage a ceasefire in
Lebanon without France being involved on the front line.”France will be involved
in monitoring the ceasefire, Barrot noted, with 700 French soldiers deployed as
part of the 10,000-strong United Nations peacekeeping force, known as UNIFIL,
that has been patrolling the border area between Lebanon and Israel for nearly
50 years. The minister said France will also work to strengthen Lebanese troops
that will deploy in the south of the country as part of the ceasefire, although
he didn’t specify what that might include.
What to Know about the Ceasefire Deal between Israel and
Lebanon's Hezbollah
Asharq Al-Awsat/November 27/2024
A ceasefire deal that went into effect on Wednesday could end more than a year
of cross-border fighting between Israel and Lebanon's Hezbollah militant group,
raising hopes and renewing difficult questions in a region gripped by conflict.
The US- and France-brokered deal, approved by Israel late Tuesday, calls
for an initial two-month halt to fighting and requires Hezbollah to end its
armed presence in southern Lebanon, while Israeli troops are to return to their
side of the border. It offers both sides an off-ramp from hostilities that have
driven more than 1.2 million Lebanese and 50,000 Israelis from their homes.
An intense bombing campaign by Israel has left more than 3,700 people
dead, many of them civilians, Lebanese officials say. Over 130 people have been
killed on the Israeli side. But while it could
significantly calm the tensions that have inflamed the region, the deal does
little directly to resolve the much deadlier war that has raged in Gaza since
the Hamas attack on southern Israel in October 2023 that killed 1,200 people.
Hezbollah, which began firing scores of rockets into Israel the following
day in support of Hamas, previously said it would keep fighting until there was
a stop to the fighting in Gaza. With the new cease-fire, it has backed away from
that pledge, in effect leaving Hamas isolated and fighting a war alone.
Here’s what to know about the tentative ceasefire agreement and its
potential implications:
The terms of the deal
The agreement reportedly calls for a 60-day halt in fighting that would see
Israeli troops retreat to their side of the border while requiring Hezbollah to
end its armed presence in a broad swath of southern Lebanon. President Joe Biden
said Tuesday that the deal is set to take effect at 4 a.m. local time on
Wednesday (9 p.m. EST Tuesday). Under the deal,
thousands of Lebanese troops and U.N. peacekeepers are to deploy to the region
south of the Litani River. An international panel led by the US would monitor
compliance by all sides. Biden said the deal “was designed to be a permanent
cessation of hostilities.”Israel has demanded the right to act should Hezbollah
violate its obligations, but Lebanese officials rejected writing that into the
proposal. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Tuesday that the
military would strike Hezbollah if the UN peacekeeping force, known as UNIFIL,
does not enforce the deal.
Lingering uncertainty
Hezbollah indicated it would give the ceasefire pact a chance, but one of the
group's leaders said the group's support for the deal hinged on clarity that
Israel would not renew its attacks. “After reviewing
the agreement signed by the enemy government, we will see if there is a match
between what we stated and what was agreed upon by the Lebanese officials,”
Mahmoud Qamati, deputy chair of Hezbollah’s political council, told the Qatari
satellite news network Al Jazeera. “We want an end to
the aggression, of course, but not at the expense of the sovereignty of the
state” of Lebanon, he said.
The European Union’s top diplomat, Josep Borrell, said Tuesday that Israel’s
security concerns had been addressed in the deal.
Where the fighting has left both sides After months of cross-border bombings,
Israel can claim major victories, including the killing of Hezbollah’s top
leader, Hassan Nasrallah, most of his senior commanders and the destruction of
extensive militant infrastructure. A complex attack in
September involving the explosion of hundreds of walkie-talkies and pagers used
by Hezbollah was widely attributed to Israel, signaling a remarkable penetration
of the militant group.
The damage inflicted on Hezbollah has hit not only in its ranks, but the
reputation it built by fighting Israel to a stalemate in the 2006 war. Still,
its fighters managed to put up heavy resistance on the ground, slowing Israel’s
advance while continuing to fire scores of rockets, missiles and drones across
the border each day. The ceasefire offers relief to
both sides, giving Israel’s overstretched army a break and allowing Hezbollah
leaders to tout the group’s effectiveness in holding their ground despite
Israel’s massive advantage in weaponry. But the group is likely to face a
reckoning, with many Lebanese accusing it of tying their country’s fate to
Gaza’s at the service of key ally Iran, inflicting great damage on a Lebanese
economy that was already in grave condition. No
answers for Gaza Until now, Hezbollah has insisted that it would only halt its
attacks on Israel when it agreed to stop fighting in Gaza. Some in the region
are likely to view a deal between the Lebanon-based group and Israel as a
capitulation. In Gaza, where officials say the war has
killed more than 44,000 Palestinians, Israel’s attacks have inflicted a heavy
toll on Hamas, including the killing of the group’s top leaders. But Hamas
fighters continue to hold scores of Israeli hostages, giving the militant group
a bargaining chip if indirect ceasefire negotiations resume.
Hamas is likely to continue to demand a lasting truce and a full Israeli
withdrawal from Gaza in any such deal, while Netanyahu on Tuesday reiterated his
pledge to continue the war until Hamas is destroyed and all hostages are freed.
Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, whose forces were ousted from
Gaza by Hamas in 2007 and who hopes to one day rule over the territory again as
part of an independent Palestinian state, offered a pointed reminder Tuesday of
the intractability of the war, demanding urgent international intervention.
“The only way to halt the dangerous escalation we are witnessing in the
region, and maintain regional and international stability, security and peace,
is to resolve the question of Palestine,” he said in a speech to the UN read by
his ambassador.
Will ceasefire deal to end Israel-Hezbollah war achieve
lasting peace for Lebanon?
NAJIA HOUSSARI & ANAN TELLO/Arab News/November 27, 2024
BEIRUT/LONDON: The world has largely welcomed a ceasefire deal which ends 13
months of fighting betrween Israel and Hezbollah that has claimed the lives of
at least 3,700 Lebanese and more than 130 Israelis. The deal between the
governments of Israel and Lebanon, brokered by the US and France, came into
effect on Wednesday at 4 a.m. local time. From the Israeli army’s perspective,
the war in Lebanon was coming to a point of diminishing returns. It has
succeeded in weakening Hezbollah’s military standing and eliminating its top
leadership but has been unable to wipe it out entirely. For its part, Hezbollah
has been seriously debilitated in Lebanon; the war has eroded its military
capabilities and left it rudderless.
Looking at it optimistically, the diplomatic breakthrough — which unfolded on
Tuesday night as Israel unleashed a barrage of bombs on central Beirut — could
be the beginning of the end of the long-standing “Israel-Iran shadow war,” as a
new administration prepares to assume power in Washington. Hezbollah and the
Israeli military began to exchange cross-border fire on Oct. 8, 2023, one day
after Israel launched its assault on the Gaza Strip in retaliation for a deadly
Hamas-led attack.
The conflict dramatically escalated on Sept. 23 this year, when Israel began
heavily bombing several parts of Lebanon, including Hezbollah’s stronghold in
the south. The airstrikes killed thousands of Lebanese, displaced some 1.2
million others, flattened residential buildings, and devastated 37 villages.
While the ceasefire deal calls for a 60-day halt in hostilities, President Joe
Biden said that it “was designed to be a permanent cessation of hostilities.”
Negotiators have described it as laying the groundwork for a lasting truce.
Under the terms of the deal, Hezbollah will remove its fighters and arms from
the region between the Blue Line and the Litani River, while Israeli troops will
withdraw from Lebanese territory during the specified period.
Thousands of Lebanese troops and UN peacekeepers will deploy to the region south
of the Litani River. A US-led international panel will oversee compliance from
all sides. However, uncertainty persists, as both Hezbollah and Israel have
warned that they will resume fire if the other party breaches the agreement.
Hezbollah stated it would give the ceasefire pact a chance, but Mahmoud Qamati,
the deputy chair of the group’s political council, stressed that Hezbollah’s
support for the deal depends on clear assurances that Israel will not resume its
attacks.
Likewise, Israel said it would attack if Hezbollah violated the agreement. The
army’s Arabic-language spokesperson, Avichay Adraee, also urged residents of
southern Lebanese villages — who had fled in recent months — to delay returning
home until further notice from the Israeli military. David Wood, a senior
Lebanon analyst with the International Crisis Group, believes that while the
ceasefire is desperately needed, it “will almost certainly not bring Lebanon’s
troubles to an end. “Many of the country’s displaced may not be able to return
home for months, as Israel has razed entire villages near the Blue Line border,”
he said. “Meanwhile, Hezbollah’s domestic foes claim they will no longer accept
the group’s dominance over Lebanese politics — a pledge that promises still more
instability.”
Firas Maksad, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, also cannot see this
ceasefire bringing an end to Lebanon’s problems as the war has already triggered
shifts in internal alliances. Describing the deal as a “capitulation,” he said
during an interview with the BBC that “the majority of the Lebanese people,
including Hezbollah's own support base, did not want to see Lebanon dragged into
this war.”
“After all this devastation, after Hezbollah having now to capitulate and
withdraw away from that border north of the Litani River, having to accept an
American-led mechanism led by a general who is part of CENTCOM in the region,
this is going to be highly embarrassing,” he said. “And there's going to be a
day of reckoning for Hezbollah in Lebanon once the ceasefire actually goes into
effect.”He added that politically, this means that “the various Lebanese parties
and the various also alliances that had been in place before this war are no
longer going to be there.”“We saw, for example, Hezbollah’s crucial Christian
ally distance itself from the group now, very much moving towards the center or
even in opposition to Hezbollah.”Gebran Bassil, leader of the Maronite Free
Patriotic Movement and a close ally of Hezbollah since 2006, said earlier this
month that his party is “not in an alliance with Hezbollah.”
In an interview with Al-Arabiya TV, he added that Hezbollah “has weakened itself
and exposed its military strength, leaving Lebanon as a whole vulnerable to
Israeli attacks.”
A man celebrates carrying a picture of slain Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah
in Beirut's Dahiyeh district following a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah
that went into effect on Nov. 27, 2024. (AP)l
Also acknowledging the toll on Hezbollah is Lebanese political analyst Ali
Al-Amin. He expressed concern that, while the ceasefire deal is a positive
development, its terms signal a significant shift for Hezbollah. “People were
happy at first glance about the ceasefire agreement, as it is a basic demand
after a fierce, destructive war,” he told Arab News. “However, there are many
(unanswered) questions, starting with the nature of the agreement and its
content. “In a first reading, I believe that Hezbollah’s function has ended. The
prohibition of military operations and weapons, the necessity of destroying and
dismantling weapons facilities, and the ban on the supply of weapons are all
preludes to ending the party’s function.” Hezbollah’s main ally, Tehran,
expressed support for the ceasefire. Esmaeil Baghaei, spokesperson for Iran’s
Foreign Ministry, welcomed the end of Israel’s “aggression against Lebanon.”
He also reaffirmed his country’s “firm support for the Lebanese government,
nation and resistance.”Before the Israeli cabinet approved the deal, Prime
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the ceasefire would allow his country to
“intensify” pressure on the Palestinian group Hamas in Gaza and focus on the
“Iranian threat.”Mairav Zonszein, a senior Israeli analyst with the ICG,
believes that “for Israel, the ceasefire is not necessarily an end to the war,
but a pause” in fighting.
She said: “It will free up forces and resources to Israel’s other fronts in
Gaza, the West Bank, and Iran, and is a chance to test out Israel’s ability to
take military action to enforce the ceasefire, which is being sold as the main
difference between the resolution that ended the 2006 war and this time around.”
Al-Amin believes Iran, Israel’s biggest adversary, has accepted this shift
affecting its ally Hezbollah. However, he stressed that while the deal remains
“subject to implementation,” it raises questions about the enforcement of UN
Security Council Resolution 1701 and Washington’s role in overseeing its
execution.
Echoing Al-Amin’s concern, Heiko Wimmen, ICG project director for Iraq, Syria,
and Lebanon, said: “The ceasefire is based on the commitment of both Lebanon and
Israel to finally implement Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the
2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah. “The challenges are the same as 18 years
ago, namely, how to make sure that both parties comply in the long term and what
to do with Hezbollah’s military capabilities, which constitute a threat to the
security of Israel, and potentially other Lebanese, whether they are present on
the border or a few kilometers away.”
Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati, who welcomed the ceasefire deal,
reiterated on Wednesday his government’s commitment to implementing Resolution
1701.
UN Security Council Resolution 1701, adopted to resolve the 2006 Lebanon war,
called for a permanent ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel, the establishment
of a buffer zone free of armed personnel other than UN and Lebanese forces,
Hezbollah’s disarmament and withdrawal from south of the Litani River, and the
withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanon. However, Maksad of the Middle East
Institute, emphasizes that implementing a ceasefire in Lebanon — US-led and
otherwise — will demand more than just adhering to the deal’s terms, especially
on the domestic front. “There is a crucial need to rearrange the deck in
Lebanon,” he said in an interview with the BBC. “You need to elect a president
in Lebanon, one that is a sovereign-minded president that would work with the
Lebanese army and provide it with the political cover it needs to help and
implement this resolution together with the UN troops that are there and also
the international community.”
He added: “You also cannot begin the task — the mammoth task — of rebuilding,
the reconstruction, the tune of billions of dollars if you don’t have a
reform-minded government.”And while the ceasefire brings a faint hope for
Lebanon’s displaced population, many of those affected perceive its terms
through the prism of personal loss, questioning what, if anything, had been
gained from the war. Nora Farhat, whose family home in
Anqoun in Beirut’s southern suburbs was reduced to rubble, lamented that the
agreement “will not restore our destroyed homes or bring back those who were
killed — loved ones we have yet to bury.”The scale of destruction in southern
villages means return is not an option for many, who are left wondering about
Hezbollah’s future and its ability to maintain its influence in the region.
Analyst Al-Amin believes that Hezbollah’s immediate focus will likely
shift to managing the domestic narrative. “Hezbollah’s priority now will be how
to reverse the defeat into victory at home, and how to prevent the Lebanese from
questioning what happened and why it happened,” he said. Some of those displaced
from Shiite-majority villages in the south expressed frustration at being caught
in the crossfire of Hezbollah’s conflicts with Israel.
For Ahmad Ismail, who was displaced from his home in south Lebanon, the war and
its aftermath seemed “futile.”He told Arab News: “There was no need to open a
southern front under the slogan of supporting Gaza, as those who sought this war
sought to humiliate us.
“If only we had implemented the May 17 agreement in the 1980s with Israel, we
would have been spared wars, killing and destruction, and the Shiite sect would
not have reached the point of displacement, death, and frustration it has
reached today.”
Ismail, who was previously imprisoned in Israel, believes the ceasefire is the
only positive aspect of the US-brokered truce deal. “It is a good initiative
toward making this the last of the wars and a step toward disarming illegal
weapons,” he said. “It also paves the way for restoring the state to its role,
which Hezbollah undermined by monopolizing decisions of war and peace without
consulting anyone.”Despite the Israeli military’s warning, Lebanese people
displaced from their homes in the south began flocking to their villages.
Ismail believes “people are currently in shock. Some still cannot believe that
Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah has been killed, and many have not yet seen
what happened to their homes and villages. “When they wake up from the trauma,
we will see the repercussions.”
Ismail added: “A disaster has befallen the Lebanese people, and Hezbollah must
be held accountable. Hezbollah is no longer able to mobilize the people through
the power of weapons, excess force, and money.” As Lebanon begins to pick up the
pieces, many still wonder if this ceasefire will offer more than just a
temporary reprieve — or if it will be the beginning of an uncertain future.
Saudi
Arabia Welcomes Ceasefire in Lebanon
Asharq Al-Awsat/November 27/2024
Saudi Arabia welcomed on Wednesday the ceasefire in Lebanon, hailing the
international efforts that helped achieve it. In a statement, the Foreign
Ministry hoped the ceasefire would lead to the implementation of United Nations
Security Council Resolution 1701, preserve Lebanon’s sovereignty, security and
stability, and ensure the safe return of the displaced to their homes. The
Muslim World League (MWL) welcomed the ceasefire, commending all efforts that
contributed to ending the conflict and expressed its hope for continued security
and stability for Lebanon and its people under its national sovereignty. The
Organization of Islamic Cooperation stressed the need for all parties to commit
to the ceasefire agreement through the full implementation of Resolution 1701.
OIC Secretary General Hissein Brahim Taha underscored his full support for
Lebanon’s stability and the right of its state to exercise its sovereignty
across all Lebanese territories. He called for humanitarian aid to meet the
needs of those affected and for reconstructing what was destroyed in the war.
Moreover, he hoped that the ceasefire in Lebanon would pave the way for an
immediate halt to the Israeli assault on Gaza and all occupied Palestinian
territories.
The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on November
27-28/2024
Iran reserves right to react to Israeli
airstrikes, welcomes Lebanon ceasefire
Reuters/November 27, 2024
Tehran reserves the right to react Israeli airstrikes last month on Iran but
also bears in mind other developments in the region, Iranian Foreign Minister
Abbas Araghchi said on Wednesday. Araghchi told reporters during a trip to
Lisbon that Iran welcomed Tuesday's ceasefire agreement in Lebanon and hoped it
could lead to a permanent ceasefire. The ceasefire between Israel and
Iran-backed Hezbollah came into effect on Wednesday under an agreement brokered
by the United States and France. Asked whether the ceasefire could lead to an
easing of tensions between Israel and Iran, he said: "It depends on the
behaviour of Israel." "Of course, we reserve the right to react to the recent
Israeli aggression, but we do consider all developments in the region," he
said.Israel struck targets in Iran on Oct. 26 in retaliation for an Iranian
missile barrage against Israel on Oct. 1.
Ali Larijani, a senior adviser to Iran's supreme leader, said in an interview
published by Iran's Tasnim news agency on Sunday that his country was preparing
to "respond" to Israel.
Trump team
says Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire deal brokered by Biden is actually Trump's win
Aamer Madhani/The Associated
Press/November 27, 2024
The Biden administration kept President-elect Donald Trump's incoming
administration closely apprised of its efforts to broker the ceasefire deal
between Israel and Hezbollah that took effect early Wednesday, according to the
outgoing Democratic administration.
Trump’s team, meanwhile, was quick to spike the football and claim credit for
the rare spot of good news for a Democratic administration that's been dragged
down by the grinding Mideast conflict. “Everyone is coming to the table because
of President Trump,” Florida Rep. Mike Waltz, Trump’s choice for his national
security adviser, said in a post on X on Tuesday, shortly before the Israel
Cabinet signed off on the agreement. “His resounding victory sent a clear
message to the rest of the world that chaos won’t be tolerated. I’m glad to see
concrete steps towards deescalation in the Middle East.”
White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan on Wednesday confirmed he
kept Waltz on the negotiations, but offered firm pushback on the idea that Trump
deserved credit for the long-sought after deal finally coalescing. “I would just
point out that you know you’ve done a really good thing when other people take
credit for it,” Sullivan told CNN on Wednesday. The Biden administration's
coordination with Trump's team on its efforts to forge the ceasefire in Lebanon
is perhaps the highest-profile example of cooperation in what's been a sometimes
choppy transition period.
Trump's transition team just Tuesday reached a required agreement with President
Joe Biden’s White House that will allow transition staff to coordinate with the
existing federal workforce before Trump takes office on Jan. 20. There has been
some coordination on high levels between the outgoing Biden and incoming Trump
teams, including talks between Biden's national security adviser Jake Sullivan
and Waltz. Biden in Rose Garden remarks on Tuesday cheered the ceasefire
agreement as a critical step that he hoped could be the catalyst for a broader
peace in the Mideast, which has been shaken by nearly 14 months of war following
Hamas’ attack on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023. “This is designed to be a permanent
cessation of hostilities," Biden said. "What is left of Hezbollah and other
terrorist organizations will not be allowed — I emphasize, will not be allowed —
to threaten the security of Israel again.” White House officials are now hopeful
that a calm in Lebanon will reinvigorate a multi-country effort at finding an
endgame to the devastating war in Gaza, where Hamas is still holding dozens of
hostages and the conflict is more intractable.
Biden said the U.S., as well as Israel, will engage in talks in the coming days
with officials from Egypt, Qatar and Turkey to try to get Gaza talks back on
track. But during Biden's moment of success in a conflict that has roiled his
reputation at home and abroad, the specter of the incoming Trump administration
loomed large. Trump’s senior national security team was briefed by the Biden
administration as negotiations unfolded and finally came to a conclusion on
Tuesday, according to a senior Biden administration official. The official, who
briefed reporters on the condition of anonymity on a call organized by the White
House, added that the incoming Trump administration officials were not directly
involved in the talks, but that it was important that they knew “what we were
negotiating and what the commitments were."Trump's team and allies, meanwhile,
said there was no doubt that the prospect of the Republican president returning
to power pushed both sides to get the agreement done. Waltz, in addition to
giving Trump credit for the ceasefire deal coming together, added a warning to
Iran, Hezbollah's chief financial backer. “But let’s be clear: The Iran Regime
is the root cause of the chaos & terror that has been unleashed across the
region. We will not tolerate the status quo of their support for terrorism,"
Waltz said in his post. Sen. Lindsey Graham, a Trump ally, also gave a shoutout
to the incoming administration, while giving a nod to Biden's team. “I
appreciate the hard work of the Biden Administration, supported by President
Trump, to make this ceasefire a reality,” Graham said in a statement.
Richard Goldberg, a senior adviser at the Washington group Foundation for the
Defense of Democracies, said the moment magnifies that Iran — which he said
would have needed to approve of Hezbollah agreeing to the ceasefire — is
carefully weighing what may be ahead with Trump. "There’s zero doubt that Iran
is pulling back to regroup ahead of Trump coming into office," said Goldberg, a
National Security Council official in Trump's first administration. “It’s a
combination of Israeli military success and Trump’s election — the ayatollah has
no clothes and he knows we know.”
The Biden White House is also holding on to a sliver of hope that the Lebanon
ceasefire deal could help reinvigorate a long sought after Israel-Saudi
normalization deal. The official said a “lot of work has been done” to get such
an agreement on track “but clearly where we are in Gaza is holding us
back.”Biden has said his administration was tantalizingly close to reaching a
deal between the Middle East’s two most important powers shortly before the
Hamas attack sent tremors throughout the region. He has speculated that the
emerging normalization deal was part of Hamas’ motivation in carrying out its
attack on Israel when it did. Just weeks before the attack, Israeli Prime
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sat beside Biden on the sidelines of the annual U.N.
General Assembly and marveled that a “historic peace between Israel and Saudi
Arabia” seemed within reach — a diplomatic advance that the Israeli leader
predicted could lead to lasting peace between the Israelis and Palestinians. The
so-called normalization push, which began during Trump’s first administration
and was branded the Abraham Accords, is an ambitious effort to reshape the
region and boost Israel’s standing. The Biden White House plans to keep the
incoming Trump administration looped in on its efforts and “anything that we
will do on this ... we won’t do this unless they know what we’re doing," the
Biden administration official said.
*Associated Press writers Fatima Hussein in West Palm Beach, Florida, and Zeke
Miller and Chris Megerian contributed reporting.
Israeli
strikes on Gaza Strip leave 15 dead, medics say
Reuters/November 27, 2024
Israeli military strikes across the Gaza Strip killed 15 people on Wednesday,
some of them in a school housing displaced people, medics in Gaza said, adding
that the fatalities included two sons of a former Hamas spokesman. Health
officials in the Hamas-run enclave said eight Palestinians were killed and
dozens of others wounded in an Israeli strike that hit the Al-Tabeaeen School,
which was sheltering displaced families in Gaza City. Among those killed were
two sons of former Hamas spokesman, Fawzi Barhoum, according to medics and
Barhoum himself. In the Shejaia suburb of Gaza City, another strike killed four
people, while three people were killed in an Israeli air strike in Beit Lahiya
on the northern edge of the enclave where army forces have been operating since
last month. Separately, a ceasefire between Israel and Iran-backed group
Hezbollah came into effect on Wednesday after both sides accepted an agreement
brokered by the U.S. and France, a rare victory for diplomacy in a region shaken
by two wars for over a year. Iran-backed Hezbollah militants began firing
missiles at Israel in solidarity with Hamas after the Palestinian militant group
attacked Israel in October of 2023, killing around 1,200 people and capturing
over 250 hostages, Israel has said, triggering the Gaza war. Israel's 13-month
campaign in Gaza has left nearly 44,200 people dead and displaced nearly all the
enclave's population at least once, according to Gaza health officials. Months
of attempts to negotiate a ceasefire have yielded scant progress and
negotiations are now on hold, with mediator Qatar saying it has told the two
warring parties it would suspend its efforts until the sides are prepared to
make concessions. U.S. President Joe Biden said on Tuesday his administration
was pushing for a ceasefire in Gaza and that it was possible that Saudi Arabia
and Israel could normalize relations.
Israel
Says It Captured Weapons from Iran Being Smuggled to West Bank
Asharq Al-Awsat/November 27/2024
Israeli authorities say they seized a large cache of weapons originating in Iran
and bound for Palestinian fighters in the West Bank. A joint statement from the
military and Israel’s Shin Bet internal security agency on Wednesday said the
cache included rockets, explosives, mortar launchers, sniper rifles and other
weapons. They released photos purporting to show the weapons. The statement did
not say where the seizure took place, and the military did not respond to a
request for comment. The statement identified two units of Iran’s paramilitary
Revolutionary Guard, one purportedly based in Syria, that it said were
responsible for the smuggling, and named their commanders. It did not provide
further evidence of Iran’s involvement. Israel has carried out near-daily
military raids in the occupied West Bank in recent years, targeting what it says
are militants planning attacks. The violence spiked after Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023
attack ignited the war in the Gaza Strip. The Palestinian Health Ministry says
nearly 800 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli fire in the West Bank since
then. There has also been a rise in Palestinian attacks on Israelis. Israel
captured the West Bank, Gaza and east Jerusalem in the 1967 Mideast war,
territories the Palestinians want for a future state.
France
points to Netanyahu immunity from ICC war crimes warrant
RFI/November 27, 2024
France's foreign ministry on Wednesday signalled that Israeli Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu enjoys immunity from arrest, despite an International
Criminal Court warrant issued against him for alleged war crimes.In a carefully
worded statement, the ministry said it would respect international justice
obligations while noting that immunity rules protect leaders of states that are
not ICC members, such as Israel. “A state cannot be held to act in a way that is
incompatible with its obligations in terms of international law with regards to
immunities granted to states which are not party to the ICC,” the foreign
ministry said. “Such immunities apply to Prime Minister Netanyahu and other
ministers in question, and must be taken into consideration should the ICC ask
us to arrest them and hand them over.”The announcement follows conflicting
remarks from French officials about whether Netanyahu would face arrest if he
travelled to France. Prime Minister Michel Barnier previously stated that France
would "rigorously apply its obligations" regarding the ICC warrant.Warrants were
issued earlier this month for Netanyahu, former Israeli defence minister Yoav
Gallant, and Hamas military chief Mohammed Deif. All three are accused of war
crimes and crimes against humanity linked to the ongoing conflict in Gaza.
Hamas
Official Says Group ‘Appreciates’ Lebanon’s Right to Reach Agreement
Asharq Al-Awsat/November 27/2024
Hamas official Sami Abu Zuhri said on Wednesday the group "appreciates"
Lebanon's right to reach an agreement that protects its people and it hopes for
a deal to end the war in Gaza. A ceasefire between Israel and the Lebanese
Hezbollah movement came into effect on Wednesday after both sides accepted an
agreement brokered by the United States and France, but international efforts to
halt the 14-month-old war between Hamas and Israel in the Palestinian territory
of Gaza have stalled. "Hamas appreciates the right of Lebanon and Hezbollah to
reach an agreement that protects the people of Lebanon and we hope that this
agreement will pave the way to reaching an agreement that ends the war of
genocide against our people in Gaza," Abu Zuhri told Reuters.Later on Wednesday,
the group said in a statement it was open to efforts to secure a deal in Gaza,
reiterating its outstanding conditions. "We are committed to cooperating with
any effort to reach a ceasefire in Gaza and we are interested in ending the
aggression against our people," Hamas said. It added that an agreement must end
the war, pull Israeli forces out of Gaza, return displaced Gazans to their
homes, and achieve a hostages-for-prisoners swap deal.
Without a similar deal in Gaza, many residents said they felt abandoned. In the
latest violence, Israeli military strikes across the Gaza Strip killed 15 people
on Wednesday, some of them in a school housing displaced people, medics there
said. Months of attempts to negotiate a ceasefire have yielded scant progress
and negotiations are now on hold, with mediator Qatar saying it has told the two
warring parties it would suspend its efforts until the sides are prepared to
make concessions. Abu Zuhri blamed the failure to reach a ceasefire deal that
would end the Gaza war on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has
repeatedly accused Hamas of foiling efforts. "Hamas showed high flexibility to
reach an agreement and it is still committed to that position and is interested
in reaching an agreement that ends the war in Gaza," Abu Zuhri said. "The
problem was always with Netanyahu who has always escaped from reaching an
agreement," he added. Hamas wants an agreement that ends the war in Gaza and
sees the release of Israeli and foreign hostages as well as Palestinians jailed
by Israel, while Netanyahu has said the war can only end after Hamas is
eradicated. In the Israeli-occupied West Bank, senior Palestinian Authority
Hussein Al-Sheikh welcomed the agreement in Lebanon. "We welcome the decision to
ceasefire in Lebanon, and we call on the international community to pressure
Israel to stop its criminal war in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, and to stop
all its escalatory measures against the Palestinian people," Sheikh, a confidant
of President Mahmoud Abbas, posted on X. US President Joe Biden said on Tuesday
his administration was pushing for a ceasefire in Gaza.
Iran-Backed Iraqi Militia Vows to Continue Fighting Israel
Asharq Al-Awsat/November 27/2024
One of the most powerful Iran-backed factions in Iraq said it would continue its
operations in support of Gaza despite the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire. Iraqi
militias have repeatedly launched attacks on Israel from Iraq in the nearly 14
months since the Israel-Hamas war broke out. In a statement, the Kataib
Hezbollah group said that the ceasefire would not have been possible without the
“resilience of Hezbollah fighters and the failure of the Zionists to achieve
their objectives, making the decision solely Lebanese.”The group said that a
pause by one member of the so-called Axis of Resistance, which includes
Iran-backed groups from Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen, would not undermine the
broader “unity of fronts” strategy. The militia also said the US had been
Israel’s partner “in all acts of betrayal, killing, destruction and
displacement,” and said it “will eventually have to pay for its actions.”
Erdogan Says Türkiye Ready to Help with Ceasefire in Gaza
Asharq Al-Awsat/November 27/2024
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Wednesday that Türkiye was ready to help
in any way possible to establish a lasting ceasefire in Gaza, and expressed
satisfaction with the ceasefire agreement that has come into effect in Lebanon.
Türkiye, which has fiercely criticized Israel's offensives in Gaza and Lebanon,
has previously said it discussed a potential truce in Gaza with Palestinian
armed group Hamas and gave the group recommendations on how to proceed with the
negotiations. On Tuesday, US President Joe Biden said the United States would
again push for an elusive ceasefire in the Palestinian enclave of Gaza "with
Türkiye, Egypt, Qatar, Israel and others". "We are stating that, as Türkiye, we
are ready to provide any contribution for the massacre in Gaza to end and for a
lasting ceasefire to be achieved," Erdogan told members of his ruling AK Party
in parliament. Asked about Biden's remarks, a Turkish official told Reuters a
ceasefire in Lebanon without a truce in Gaza was not enough to achieve regional
stability, adding Ankara was ready to help reach a deal in Gaza, just as it had
supported previous efforts. "We are again ready to help achieve a permanent
ceasefire and a lasting solution in Gaza," the official said. While Ankara has
repeatedly traded insults with Israel since the outbreak of the Gaza war, it has
not officially severed ties with it. Unlike Israel and its Western partners,
Türkiye does not consider Hamas a terrorist organization and regularly hosts
some of its senior members.
South
Korean leader meets Ukraine delegation and calls for response to North Korean
troops in Russia
Hyung-jin Kim/SEOUL, South Korea (AP)/November 27, 2024
South Korea’s president on Wednesday met a visiting Ukraine delegation and
called for the two countries to formulate countermeasures in response to the
threat posed by North Korea’s recent dispatch of more than 10,000 soldiers to
support Russia’s war against Ukraine. The North Korean troop deployment is
threatening to expand the almost three-year war, with Ukraine and the U.S.
saying that some of the soldiers have already begun engaging in battle on the
front lines. Seoul and Washington also worry that Russia might in return help
North Korea build more advanced nuclear weapons targeting them. In late October,
South Korea warned it could respond by supplying weapons to Ukraine. During a
meeting with the Ukrainian delegation led by Defense Minister Rustem Umerov,
President Yoon Suk Yeol said he hopes that Seoul and Kiev will work out
effective ways to cope with the security threat posed by the North
Korean-Russian military cooperation including the North’s troop dispatch, Yoon’s
office said in a statement.The Ukrainian delegation later met separately with
Yoon’s national security adviser, Shin Wonsik, and Defense Minister Kim Yong
Hyun. During the meetings, Umerov briefed the South Korean officials on the
status of the Russia-Ukraine war and expressed hope that Kyiv and Seoul will
strengthen cooperation, the statement said. It said the two sides agreed to
continue to share information on the North Korean troops in Russia and North
Korean-Russian weapons and technology transfers while closely coordinating with
the United States. The South Korean statement didn’t say whether the two sides
discussed Seoul’s possible weapons supply to Ukraine. Many observers say Donald
Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election could make South Korea more
cautious about potentially shipping weapons to Ukraine because Trump has
promised to end the war swiftly. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022,
South Korea has joined U.S.-led sanctions against Moscow and shipped
humanitarian and financial support to Kyiv. But it has avoided directly
supplying arms in line with its policy of not supplying lethal weapons to
countries actively engaged in conflicts. South Korean officials have said they
will take phased countermeasures, linking the level of their response to the
degree of Russia-North Korean cooperation. Shin, the national security adviser,
said last week that Russia has supplied air defense missile systems to North
Korea in exchange for its sending troops to Russia. Experts say it’s unlikely
that Russia will transfer high-tech nuclear and missile technology to North
Korea in the initial stage of the troop dispatch. North Korea and Russia have
sharply increased their military and other cooperation as each face
confrontations with the U.S. and its allies. The U.S., South Korea and others
accuse North Korea of having shipped artillery, missiles and other conventional
weapons to Russia.
Israeli
military says it downed drone smuggling weapons from Egypt
Reuters/November 27, 2024
CAIRO: The Israeli military said on Wednesday it shot down a drone that was
carrying weapons and crossed from Egypt to Israel. When asked about the latest
drone incident, Egyptian security sources said they had no knowledge of such an
incident.
In two separate incidents in October, Israel also said it downed two drones
smuggling weapons from Egyptian territory. Israeli officials have said during
the war in Gaza that Palestinian militant group Hamas used tunnels running under
the border into Egypt’s Sinai region to smuggle arms. However, Egypt says it
destroyed tunnel networks leading to Gaza years ago and created a buffer zone
and border fortifications that prevent smuggling.
The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources
on November
27-28/2024
When Muslims Forced a Newborn America to Pay
‘Protection Money’ (Jizya)
Raymond Ibrahim/PJ Media/November
27, 2024
During a recent mosque sermon at the North Hudson Islamic Center in New Jersey,
a CAIR official, Ayman Aishat, made a seemingly startling claim:
We live in America, the United States of America. Brothers and sisters, those
who do not know history, not too long ago, the USA was paying the jizya to the
Ottoman Caliph.
Could this be?
First, let us define jizya. In brief (full discussion here), it is the monetary
tribute that conquered or cowed infidels pay their Islamic overlords in exchange
for peace, according to Koran 9:29:
Fight those among the People of the Book [Christians and Jews] who do not
believe in Allah, nor the Last Day, nor forbid what Allah and his Messenger have
forbidden, nor embrace the religion of truth [Islam], until they pay the jizya
with willing submission and feel themselves subdued.
And yes, Aishat is correct: once upon a time, in its fledgling youth, the United
States succumbed to paying jizya to appease Muslim terrorists. That story is
instructive — not least as it includes the genesis of the U.S. Navy.
Between the sixteenth and eighteenth centuries, the Muslims of North Africa
(“Barbary”) thrived on enslaving Europeans. According to the conservative
estimate of American professor Robert Davis, “between 1530 and 1780 there were
almost certainly a million and quite possibly as many as a million and a quarter
white, European Christians enslaved by the Muslims of the Barbary Coast.” (With
countless European women selling for the price of an onion, little wonder by the
late 1700s, European observers noted how “the inhabitants of Algiers have a
rather white complexion.”)
As Barbary slaving was a seafaring venture, nearly no part of Europe was
untouched. From 1627 to 1633, Lundy, an island off the west coast of Britain,
was actually occupied by the pirates, whence they pillaged England at will. In
1627 they raided Denmark and even far-off Iceland, hauling a total of some 800
slaves. Such raids were accompanied by the trademark
hate. One English captive writing around 1614 noted that the Muslim pirates
“abhor the ringing of the [church] bells being contrary to their Prophet’s
command,” and so destroyed them whenever they could. In 1631, nearly the entire
fishing village of Baltimore in Ireland was raided, and “237 persons, men,
women, and children, even those in the cradle” were seized.
By the late eighteenth century, Barbary’s strength relative to Europe had
plummeted, and the Muslims could no longer raid the European coastline for
slaves — certainly not on the scale of previous centuries — so its full energy
was spent on raiding non-Muslim merchant vessels. European powers responded by
buying peace through tribute, which the Muslims accepted as jizya.
Fresh and fair meat appeared on the horizon once the newly born United States
broke free of Great Britain and was therefore no longer protected by the
latter’s jizya payments. In 1785, Muslim pirates from Algiers captured two
American vessels, the Maria and Dauphin. They enslaved and paraded the sailors
through the streets to jeers and whistles. Considering the horrific ways
Christian slaves were treated in Barbary — sadistically tortured, pressured to
convert, and sodomized, as described in the writings of missionaries, redeemers,
and others (e.g., John Foxe, Fr. Dan, Fr. Jerome Maurand, Robert Playfair; see
pp. 279-283) — when the Dauphin’s Captain O’Brian later wrote to Thomas
Jefferson that “our sufferings are beyond our expression or your conception,” he
was not exaggerating.
Jefferson and John Adams, then ambassadors to France and England respectively,
met with Tripoli’s ambassador to Britain, Abdul Rahman Adja, in an effort to
ransom the enslaved Americans and establish peaceful relations. In a letter to
Congress dated March 28, 1786, the hitherto puzzled American ambassadors laid
out the source of the Barbary’s unprovoked animosity:
We took the liberty to make some inquiries concerning the grounds of their
pretentions to make war upon nations who had done them no injury, and observed
that we considered all mankind as our friends who had done us no wrong, nor had
given us any provocation. The ambassador answered us that it was founded on the
laws of their Prophet, that it was written in their Koran, that all nations who
should not have acknowledged their authority were sinners, that it was their
right and duty to make war upon them wherever they could be found, and to make
slaves of all they could take as prisoners, and that every Musselman who should
be slain in battle was sure to go to Paradise.
This, of course, was a paraphrase of Islam’s so-called “Sword Verse” (Koran
9:5), which ISIS invoked earlier this year.
At any rate, the ransom demanded to release the American sailors was over
fifteen times greater than what Congress had approved, and little came of the
meeting.
Back in Congress, some agreed with Jefferson that “it will be more easy to raise
ships and men to fight these pirates into reason, than money to bribe them.” In
a letter to a friend, George Washington wondered:
In such an enlightened, in such a liberal age, how is it possible that the great
maritime powers of Europe should submit to pay an annual tribute to the little
piratical States of Barbary? Would to Heaven we had a navy able to reform those
enemies to mankind, or crush them into nonexistence.
But the majority of Congress agreed with John Adams: “We ought not to fight them
at all unless we determine to fight them forever.” Considering the perpetual,
existential nature of Islamic hostility, Adams was probably more right than he
knew.
Congress settled on emulating the Europeans and paying off the terrorists,
though it would take years to raise the demanded ransom. In 1794 Algerian
pirates captured eleven more American merchant vessels.
Two things resulted: the Naval Act of 1794 was passed, and a permanent standing
U.S. naval force was established. But because the first war vessels would not be
ready until 1800, American jizya payments — which took up 16% of the entire
federal budget — began to be made to Algeria in 1795. In return, some 115
American sailors were released, and the Islamic sea raids formally ceased.
American jizya and “gifts” over the following years caused the increasingly
emboldened pirates to respond with increasingly capricious demands.
One of the more ignoble instances occurred in 1800, when Captain William
Bainbridge of the George Washington sailed to the Dey of Algiers (an Ottoman
honorific for the pirate lords of Barbary) with what the latter deemed
insufficient tribute. Referring to the American crew as “my slaves,” Dey
Mustapha proceeded to order Bainbridge to transport the Muslim’s own annual
tribute — hundreds of black slaves and exotic animals — to the Ottoman sultan in
Constantinople (Istanbul).
Adding insult to insult, the Dey commanded the U.S. flag taken down from the
George Washington and the Islamic flag hoisted in its place; and, no matter how
rough the seas might be during the long voyage, Bainbridge was ordered to make
sure the vessel faced Mecca five times a day for the prayers of Mustapha’s
ambassador and entourage. Bainbridge condescended to being the Muslim pirate’s
delivery boy.
Soon after Jefferson became president in 1801, Tripoli demanded another,
especially exorbitant payment, followed by an increase in annual payments — or
else. “I know,” Jefferson concluded, “that nothing will stop the eternal
increase of demand from these pirates but the presence of an armed force.” So he
refused the ultimatum, and, on May 10, 1801, the pasha of Tripoli, having not
received his timely jizya installment, proclaimed jihad on the United States.
Thus began America’s first war as a nation, the First Barbary War (1801-1805) —
and it was with Muslims who think and act just like ISIS.
Existing Law Requires US to Cut Funding if UN Rejects
Israel’s Credentials
Orde Kittrie/The Hill/November 27/2024
Leading members of Congress have recently sent letters and introduced bills
threatening to cut UN funding if the General Assembly votes to support a
possible Palestinian move to reject Israel’s credentials to participate in that
body.
Surprisingly, neither the letters nor the bills mention that U.S. law already
requires the U.S. to slash UN funding if Israel’s participation is halted. The
best way to deter the General Assembly from taking such an outrageous step is to
make it clear that U.S. defunding is not a mere possibility, dependent on the
bills passing, but a certainty.
Buried deep in the statutory notes section of the U.S. code is a legally binding
provision, passed in 1983, which specifies that “[i]f Israel is illegally
expelled, suspended, denied its credentials, or in any other manner denied its
right to participate in any principal or subsidiary organ or in any specialized,
technical, or other agency of the United Nations, the United States shall
suspend its participation in any such organ or agency until the illegal action
is reversed.” The provision adds that “[t]he United States shall reduce its
annual assessed contribution to the United Nations or such specialized agency by
8.34 percent for each month in which United States participation is suspended
pursuant to this section.”
This existing law’s consequences are comparable to those contained in the bills
introduced, with dozens of co-sponsors, in the House on Aug. 16 and in the
Senate on Nov. 13. The existing law is more robust in that it would require the
U.S. to suspend its participation in (and not merely defund) the offending UN
organ or agency, and slightly less robust in that it would reduce the U.S.
contribution by 8.34 percent per month rather than immediately to zero.
Neither the existing law nor the bills provide the president with the ability to
waive the specified consequences. Most importantly, the existing law is already
in place, in time to deter the General Assembly from acting in December.
Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas has repeatedly urged the UN to
suspend or expel Israel. But the UN Charter specifies that a UN member state may
be suspended or expelled only “upon the recommendation of the Security Council.”
The Council, in which the U.S. possesses a veto, has not made and will make no
such recommendation.
So the Palestinians and their allies have been planning an end run, in which
they would gin up a General Assembly vote blocking Israel’s participation by
rejecting its credentials. This is the international diplomatic equivalent of a
gate attendant dishonestly claiming a valid passport is false.
A similar maneuver was controversially used in 1974 to successfully prevent
South Africa from participating in the General Assembly. Its use against Israel
would nevertheless be illegal. As the UN’s own Legal Counsel has explained,
“participation in meetings of the General Assembly is quite clearly one of the
important rights and privileges of membership” and “[s]uspension of this right
through the rejection of credentials would … be contrary to the Charter.”
Israel’s human rights record is far superior to that of many other UN member
states, let alone that of apartheid South Africa. But the pro-Palestinian
majority of UN member states has reflexively passed multiple resolutions
unfairly applying a double standard to Israel. The U.S. veto in the UN Security
Council can protect Israel from being formally suspended or expelled from the
UN, but it is likely unable to prevent the General Assembly from illegally
rejecting Israel’s credentials to participate in that body.
The most important U.S. power in these circumstances is money. The U.S. is the
largest donor to the UN, with its contributions reportedly accounting for
one-third of the organization’s total budget. Specifically, the U.S. contributes
22 percent ($1.54 billion in 2024) of the UN’s core administrative budget, which
includes the expenses of the General Assembly. The U.S. also contributes 25
percent of UN peacekeeping funds ($1.37 billion in 2024), and some $10.4 billion
per year in voluntary contributions to various UN-related humanitarian relief
agencies.
President-elect Donald Trump, who withdrew the U.S. from some UN agencies and
cut funding for others during his first term, is already critical of the UN. If
any UN body, including the General Assembly, rejects Israel’s credentials or
otherwise curtails Israel’s participation, U.S. defunding is a certainty. Such a
cutoff is required by the existing U.S. law, which the Trump team will be highly
motivated to enforce.
*Orde F. Kittrie is Senior Fellow of Foundation for Defense of Democracies and
law professor for Arizona State University.
https://thehill.com/opinion/5008417-us-funding-threat-un-israel/
Security Cooperation With Jordan: Key to Protecting
Israel’s Eastern Front
Ahmad Sharawi/FDD-Policy Brief/November 27/2024
Israel’s longest border, shared with Jordan, has faced persistent challenges of
infiltration and smuggling led by Iran and its proxies, threats that have
escalated significantly since the Hamas-led attack on October 7, 2023. As a
result, Israel has announced plans to construct a fence along the entire
Jordanian border to curb these threats. Jordan, a peace treaty signatory with
Israel since 1994, has treated border security as a priority, deploying
thousands of troops to the area. However, the surge in drug smuggling from
Syria, which is also directed by Iran’s proxies, has strained Jordan’s
resources, leading to a diminished troop presence along its border with Israel.
Simultaneously, increased activity by Iran and its proxies has further
complicated the situation, turning the border into a growing source of
instability for Israel and highlighting the urgency of robust, collaborative
security measures.
Jordan Emerging as a Key Route for West Bank Arms Smuggling
Israeli media has highlighted a significant surge in weapons smuggling across
the Jordanian border, which has become a key transit route for arms destined for
the West Bank. In 2020, 143 firearms were intercepted, a number that rose to
over 500 in 2022 and more than 415 in 2023. These figures only represent
confiscated shipments; many weapons successfully cross the border, with hundreds
believed to reach the West Bank and Israel.
Smuggling networks rely on Palestinian and Jordanian Bedouins as well as
seasoned arms traffickers who know the border intimately. These networks, often
linked to organized crime, facilitate the movement of weapons, drugs, and cash,
exploiting the border’s vulnerabilities for substantial financial gain.
Additionally, the extensive 480-km border, combined with the reduction of ground
combat battalions in the Israeli military, has resulted in “dead zones” that
lack adequate patrols and monitoring systems. This creates ideal conditions for
smugglers to carry out their operations with minimal obstacles.
The Threats Along Israel’s Eastern Border Have Escalated Since Oct. 7
The border has witnessed escalating tensions following the October 7 atrocities
in southern Israel. Hamas’s external leadership has intensified efforts to
incite Jordan’s majority Palestinian population against the 1994 Wadi Araba
peace treaty with Israel. Simultaneously, Iraqi militias have sought to further
destabilize the kingdom, reportedly threatening to arm 12,000 Jordanians to
fight Israel. This incitement has encouraged an increase in infiltration
attempts from Jordan into Israel. In October, two Jordanians affiliated with the
Islamic Action Front, the political arm of the Muslim Brotherhood in Jordan,
crossed the border and attacked Israeli soldiers. The expectation is that Hamas
and its allies will continue to target the sympathetic Jordanian public to
provoke more unrest and encourage attacks against Israel.
Israel and Jordan: Balancing Diplomatic Tensions With Security Cooperation
The diplomatic relationship between Jordan and Israel has faced strain over the
past year, marked by increasingly critical rhetoric from Jordanian officials.
Nevertheless, the security partnership between the two nations remains robust.
Both countries recognize Iran as a significant threat to the region’s stability,
a shared concern that underpins their collaboration.
Jordan participated in the interception of Iranian projectiles in April and
October 2024 and has allowed the Israeli Air Force to intercept drones and
missiles launched from Iraq. Recently, the IDF announced the establishment of a
new division tasked with guarding Israel’s eastern border, explicitly naming
Jordan as a partner in maintaining the border.As both countries face continued
Iranian pressure, it is essential for the United States to emphasize the
centrality of this security relationship to counter Iran’s expanding influence
despite the domestic challenges for Jordan.
*Ahmad Sharawi is a research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of
Democracies (FDD), where he focuses on Middle East affairs, specifically the
Levant, Iraq, and Iranian intervention in Arab affairs, as well as U.S. foreign
policy toward the region. For more analysis from Ahmad and FDD, please subscribe
HERE. Follow him on X @AhmadA_Sharawi. Follow FDD on X @FDD. FDD is a
Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national
security and foreign policy.
Outgoing president must use US laws to rein in Israel
Ray Hanania/Arab News/November 27, 2024
When an elected American official has to worry about getting reelected, they
often restrain themselves and avoid pursuing controversial policies. But when
the reelection option is no longer available and they are in what is termed a
lame duck period of office, the elected official can do whatever they want
within their powers without worrying about voter consequences or their critics.
That is the situation Joe Biden is currently in as he prepares to relinquish the
powerful office of president of the United States. He is effectively more
powerful today than he was on the first day of his presidency.
As president, Biden can take actions that do not require approval from Congress,
including major foreign policy moves. These include negotiating agreements and
recognizing foreign governments. As the commander-in-chief of the armed forces,
he can also take many military actions, such as ordering military operations or
unit deployments, though long-term actions would require eventual congressional
approval under the US War Powers Act.
We have already seen Biden exercise these powers with respect to the
Ukraine-Russia war. Biden this month removed restrictions that had been placed
on Ukraine’s use of US-supplied long-range missiles, allowing them to be fired
into Russia and not simply used against troops that had entered Ukrainian
territory. There is more than enough justification for
Biden to do now what his administration failed to do when Israel began its war
on Gaza
This decision changes the war’s dynamics, giving Ukraine’s armed forces the
ability to launch offensive assaults to counter Russia’s bombings of its cities
and other targets. Ukraine’s other major weapons suppliers in NATO, including
the UK and France, now appear to have followed suit and removed restrictions on
the arms they supply or are at least considering doing so. Why can Biden not do
the same thing with Israel and stop the flow of US weaponry and funding that is
fueling Tel Aviv’s genocide against the Palestinians in Gaza? During the past
year, the majority of people injured or killed in Gaza have been civilians.
Although it is estimated that more than 44,000 Palestinians have been killed,
there is no way of knowing the precise number because Israel prohibits foreign
journalists from entering the Strip. There is more than enough justification for
Biden to do now what his administration failed to do when Israel began its war
on Gaza last October. All he has to do is apply the American laws that prohibit
the supplying of weapons to foreign nations that engage in the killing of
civilians and genocide.
There are five laws that restrict how foreign countries can use US money and
weapons. However, until now, the outgoing administration has refused to enforce
them.
The Leahy Law prohibits the US government from using any funds to assist foreign
security force units when credible information exists that implicates that unit
in the commission of gross human rights violations.
The Foreign Assistance Act prohibits the allocation of financial assistance to
any foreign government that “engages in a consistent pattern of gross violations
of internationally recognized human rights.”The Arms Export Control Act states
that foreign nations that receive US military aid can only use the weapons for
legitimate self-defense and internal security. The War Crimes Act forbids
breaches of the Geneva Conventions, which define the rules of warfare and
prohibit the mistreatment of noncombatants and civilians, such as willful
killings, torture or inhuman treatment, willfully causing great suffering or
serious injury to body or health, and unlawful deportation or transfer. These
are all methods routinely used by Israel to enforce its illegal occupation of
Gaza, the West Bank and East Jerusalem.
When the details of Israel’s atrocities become public — and one day they will —
the US will be harshly judged for not acting
And the Genocide Convention Implementation Act was enacted in 1987 and
establishes genocide as a specific crime. It provides for criminal penalties for
individuals who commit or incite others to commit genocide.
Each of these five laws give Biden the power to take action against Israel and
end the ferocity of its military assault against Gaza and Lebanon.
What does Biden have to lose? The election is over. His party lost. The outgoing
administration has eight weeks to make up for its grievous failure of the last
13 months and try to stop the killing of civilians. Even if this action does not
end the war or if Israel continues the carnage, at least it could help to
restore a moral foundation to the administration’s legacy. Does it really want
to be known as the administration that stood by as Israel killed more than
44,000 Palestinian civilians and thousands more Lebanese civilians? But the
White House is hostage to Netanyahu, who needs the genocide to continue in order
to derail the three corruption cases against him. It was these charges that
pushed Netanyahu to form a coalition with the most extremist elements in Israeli
society and extend his time in power. As a
consequence, Netanyahu has no compelling reason to end the genocide and he will
most likely continue the violence. He may even expand it to include Iran and any
other regional nation that refuses to surrender to Israel’s hegemony.
When the details of Israel’s atrocities become public — and one day they
will — the US will be harshly judged for not acting. Unless it acts now.
It is the right thing to do.
*Ray Hanania is an award-winning former Chicago City Hall political reporter and
columnist. He can be reached on his personal website at www.Hanania.com. X:
@RayHanania
Who bears responsibility for delaying Palestinian
statehood?
Bakir Oweida/Asharq Al-Awsat/November 27, 2024
According to an op-ed in the widely circulated Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper, there
are fears in Israel that the Biden administration may back a UN Security Council
resolution calling for an independent Palestinian state before President Joe
Biden’s term ends in the coming weeks. The article, penned by former Israeli
Ambassador to Washington Michael Oren, carries particular weight given both the
newspaper’s influential position in Israeli society and Oren’s deep
understanding of US-Israeli relations and broader Middle East policy. Should
Biden pursue such an initiative, Oren suggests it would be motivated less by
Palestinian advocacy and more by a desire to challenge Israeli Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu and his allies, who have taken an increasingly
confrontational stance, even toward America.
This debate echoes questions raised in last week’s discussions about
accountability in the Palestinian leadership. When should the Palestinian people
demand answers from their leaders about diplomatic strategies and negotiation
outcomes? The historical record of the past three decades clearly demonstrates a
pattern of missed opportunities and leadership shortcomings in achieving even
basic independence.
Effective peace negotiations, just like warfare, require strategic flexibility —
knowing when to press forward and when to step back. A stark example of a missed
opportunity came 26 years ago, when President Bill Clinton made a bold
diplomatic gesture by visiting Gaza on Dec. 13, 1998. At what was meant to be
the future site of Palestine’s international airport, Clinton and his wife
Hillary were welcomed by Palestinian President Yasser Arafat and his wife Suha.
Clinton had privately assured multiple Arab officials of his intention to
announce his backing for Palestinian statehood from the UN podium before leaving
office.
The stark contrast between those aspirations and today's reality raises pressing
questions for Palestinians about their leadership’s handling of the conflict.
Today’s Palestinians have the right to question how their various political
factions have managed these diplomatic battles on their behalf — not just
regarding recent events like the Al-Aqsa Flood attack, but throughout the entire
course of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
While each phase of a national struggle has its unique political constraints,
there is value in examining past decisions to avoid repeating historical
missteps. Palestinian miscalculations dating back to the 1947 UN Partition Plan
— with the 77th anniversary of its adoption approaching — have repeatedly cost
opportunities for statehood and resulted in territorial losses. The Gaza Strip,
once central to Palestinian aspirations, may never return to its previous state.
Does lamenting these lost opportunities serve any purpose? Perhaps yes, if it
helps prevent further displacement.
*Bakir Oweida is a Palestinian journalist who pursued a professional career in
journalism in Libya in 1968, where he worked at Al-Haqiqa newspaper in Benghazi,
then Al-Balagh and Al-Jihad in Tripoli. He has written for several Arab
publications in Britain since 1978. He worked at Al-Arab newspaper, Al-Thadamun
magazine and the international Arabic newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat. He has also
worked as a consultant at the online newspaper Elaph.
Israel and the evangelical conundrum
Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib/Arab News/November 27, 2024
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was ecstatic with Donald Trump’s US
election victory. Trump’s new administration will be heavily served by
evangelicals, from his pick for secretary of defense to the ambassador to
Israel. Netanyahu sees this as the opportunity of a lifetime to realize his
dream of a “Greater Israel:” kicking the Palestinians off their land and taking
over all of historical Palestine. However, things might not turn out the way he
and his messianic government imagine. And the evangelicals might not be the
allies to Israel that Netanyahu wishes.
The messianic extremists in Netanyahu’s government would be happy to annex the
West Bank. Already, there has been talk of resettling in Gaza. Trump might agree
to the West Bank’s annexation in the same way he agreed to the annexation of the
Golan Heights in his first term. He could do that to please his base of
evangelicals, who are driven by Christian nationalism, not by a love of Israel
or the Jews.
However, the pertinent question is: what comes after? If Israel were to annex
the West Bank, what would it do with the Palestinians? It is important to note
that Israel is the only country in the world that has not defined its borders at
the UN. It has left the door open for any annexed land. However, if it annexed
the Occupied Territories, even with Trump’s blessing, that does not mean he
would agree to the Israeli extremists’ ultimate goal: ethnic cleansing.
Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich this week reiterated his call for Israel to
occupy the Gaza Strip and reduce the Palestinian population there “by half
within two years.” But ethnic cleansing was much easier to hide in 1948 and 1967
than it is today. Now, with the rise of social and independent media, it would
be difficult to hide something as big as ethnic cleansing.
Even if Trump gives his blessing to annexation, that does not mean he would
agree to the Israeli extremists’ ultimate goal: ethnic cleansing
On the other hand, Israel is already facing scrutiny from the international
community. It has been accused of genocide by the UN’s special rapporteur on
Palestine. Pope Francis alluded to a possible genocide. There is a genocide case
in front of the International Court of Justice. The International Criminal Court
has issued arrest warrants for Netanyahu and his former defense chief. Hence, it
is unlikely that the world would allow another wave of ethnic cleansing. Arab
countries also know that each wave is a problem for generations to come.
However, annexation could be a way to coopt the progressive left, depending on
how Trump presents it. Many on the progressive left do not talk about a
Palestinian state. They talk about decolonizing Palestine, about it being free
from the river to the sea. Hence, annexation might be accepted if it was
presented as allowing everybody who lives there, regardless of their ethnicity
or religion, to live in dignity, have equal rights and be free from oppression.
Trump’s major domestic battle is likely to be over the deportation of
immigrants. So, he will not want to open another front with the progressives
regarding Palestine. The Palestinian cause could be a way for him to please his
base and appease the opposition at the same time. Trump knows very well that the
population transfer that Netanyahu dreams of could be a trigger for a regional
war. Also, Trump does not share the worldview of Netanyahu, who advocates
striking Iran and changing the regime in Tehran. He campaigned on an antiwar
platform. Even in June 2019, when the Iranians shut down an American drone, he
refrained from hitting Iran. Israel underestimates Trump’s isolationist streak.
He would not want to wage another war in the region for Israel’s sake.
Trump knows very well that the population transfer that Netanyahu dreams of
could be a trigger for a regional war. Evicting 3 million Palestinians to Jordan
would cause an existential threat to the Hashemite kingdom. In this case, Hamas
could be revived and a front extending from Iran to Iraq to Jordan and possibly
Syria would open. Will Trump want to run this risk? In addition, the US would be
the subject of scrutiny both internationally and domestically if it allowed
another wave of ethnic cleansing.
There is another factor that Netanyahu is not really paying attention to:
Project 2025. Trump intends to increase the executive power of the president.
This would basically mean less pressure from Congress. Several times in the
past, from George H.W. Bush to Barack Obama, when the president tried to impose
anything on Israel, they were chastised by the significantly pro-Israel
Congress. If Trump is able to sideline Congress, he would be able to put more
pressure on Israel to prevent any evictions from the West Bank.
Annexation might be the objective of this messianic Israeli government that is
blinded by ideology. However, its members should be careful what they wish for.
Trump might agree to it and, if he does so, it might not be exactly how
Netanyahu imagined it.
*Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib is a specialist in US-Arab relations with a focus on
lobbying. She is co-founder of the Research Center for Cooperation and Peace
Building, a Lebanese nongovernmental organization focused on Track II.