English LCCC Newsbulletin For
Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For November 27/2024
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news
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Bible Quotations For today
Jesus said to those who did not believe who is He: ‘Prophets are not without
honour except in their own country and in their own house.
Saint Matthew 13/54-58: “Jesus came to his home town and began to
teach the people in their synagogue, so that they were astounded and said,
‘Where did this man get this wisdom and these deeds of power? Is not this the
carpenter’s son? Is not his mother called Mary? And are not his brothers James
and Joseph and Simon and Judas? And are not all his sisters with us? Where then
did this man get all this?’ And they took offence at him. But Jesus said to
them, ‘Prophets are not without honour except in their own country and in their
own house.’And he did not do many deeds of power there, because of their
unbelief.”
Titles For The Latest English LCCC
Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on November
26-27/2024
Elias Bejjani/Video & Text: A Critique of the Flawed and Sinful Ceasefire
Between Israel and the Terrorist Hezbollah
Elias Bejjani/Text and Video: Dr. Charles Chartouni, who was forced to leave
Lebanon due to a politicized judiciary, is the voice of every free and sovereign
Lebanese rejecting Hezbollah's occupation
Israeli soldiers desecrate church in southern Lebanon in latest religious site
incident
Israel security cabinet approves ceasefire deal with Lebanon — TV
What does the US-brokered truce ending Israel-Hezbollah fighting include?
Israel Approves Ceasefire Deal with Lebanon, Netanyahu Says Focus Now on
'Iranian Threat'
Israel launches blitz on Beirut
Ceasefire with Hezbollah: What Israel’s 60-day pause entails – explainer
'Surrender agreement': Northern Israeli leaders slam potential Lebanon ceasefire
deal
G7 Leaders Endorse Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire and Insist Israel Follow
International Law
What’s Iran next move if a ceasefire with Lebanon happens? - analysis/Seth J.
Frantzman/Jerusalem Post 26/2024
Iran wants to assert dominance over Lebanon amid talks on ceasefire deal
IDF troops reach Litani River in Lebanon for first time in over two decades
Hezabollah, Israeli military ramp up attacks ahead of expected cease-fire
Israel bombards central Beirut as its leadership prepares to vote on ceasefire
with Hezbollah
Why an 18-year-old UN resolution is critical to ending the Lebanon-Israel war
Israeli cabinet likely to approve Lebanon ceasefire deal in Tuesday vote
‘Primary Source of Arms’: Israel Targets Syria-Lebanon Border Crossings Used to
Supply Weapons to Hezbollah
Israel kills wanted Hezbollah commander behind the establishment of Iraq’s
Iran-backed militias
Israeli strikes pound central Beirut, suburbs
Hezbollah says launched drones at ‘sensitive military targets’ in Tel Aviv
REVIEW OF THE ISRAELI-LEBANESE WARS TREATIES AND UNSC RESOLUTIONS/Roger Bejjani/Face
Book/November 26/2024
Lebanon’s stability a hostage to negotiations/Eyad Abu Shakra/Asharq Al-Awsat/November
26, 2024
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on November
26-27/2024
US responds to attack on troops with strike in Syria
3 dead in Israel strikes on Syria border crossings with Lebanon: monitor,
authorities
Israeli strike kills at least 22 at school sheltering displaced in Gaza City,
medics say
Israeli NGO warns of “quiet annexation” of West Bank under cover of war
They have forgotten us, say Gazans on possibility of Lebanon truce
KKL-JNF is working to support and assist the Druze community
Ukrainian delegation visiting Seoul to ask for weapons aid, media reports say
US appeals court grants dismissal of Trump documents case
Trump’s threat to impose tariffs could raise prices for consumers, colliding
with promise for relief
Titles For The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources
on November
26-27/2024
Israel’s only option on Iran is ending Khamenei’s regime/Jacob Nagel &Mark
Dubowitz/Ynet News/November 26/2024
Taiwan: Ukraine's Survival Is Our Survival/Gordon G. Chang/Gatestone
Institute/November 26, 2024
US hastening the shift to a multipolar world/Osama Al-Sharif/Arab News/November
26, 2024
Israel harming UNRWA could be an own goal/Yossi Mekelberg/Arab News/November 26,
2024
Britain Faces a Dilemma: Cozy Up to Trump or Reconnect With Europe?/Mark Landler
and Patricia Cohen/The New York Times/November 26, 2024
The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News &
Editorials published
on November
26-27/2024
Elias Bejjani/Video & Text: A Critique of the Flawed and Sinful Ceasefire
Between Israel and the Terrorist Hezbollah
Elias Bejjani/November 27/ 2024
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2024/11/137307/
The ceasefire agreement between Lebanon and
Hezbollah prioritizes Israel's security while neglecting Lebanon's.
The ceasefire agreement brokered between Israel and the terrorist Hezbollah,
under the auspices of the United States and other international actors, is not a
minor lapse or a momentary oversight. It is a catastrophic and unforgivable
failure that ignores the existential threat posed by this jihadist militia,
which operates as a proxy for Iran's mullah regime. Hezbollah's mission is to
dismantle Lebanon, transform it into a subservient Iranian satellite, and impose
a sectarian, regressive order while simultaneously undermining regional peace
and stability. Globally, it serves Tehran’s ambitions, conducting terrorist
operations in pursuit of the mullahs’ dreams of hegemony and a revived Persian
empire.
By ceasing its military campaign prematurely, Israel squandered a golden
opportunity to eradicate this Iranian proxy. This failure is particularly
glaring given the unprecedented regional and international support available to
achieve such a decisive outcome. For decades, Hezbollah has devastated Lebanon,
jeopardized its sovereignty, and threatened stability across the Middle East.
Israel’s retreat before completing the mission will likely have dire
consequences that extend far beyond Lebanon’s borders.
Since the Syrian occupation ended in 2005, Hezbollah has transformed Lebanon
into an Iranian outpost—a warehouse for arms, a battlefield for Tehran’s wars,
and a hub for global terrorism. It thrives on illicit activities, including arms
smuggling, drug trafficking, money laundering, and assassinations, all executed
with impunity. Under Hezbollah’s dominion, Lebanon has become a failed state,
its government, parliament, judiciary, and even religious authorities reduced to
tools of its occupation.
For nearly two decades, Lebanon’s population has endured unimaginable suffering:
economic collapse, political paralysis, judicial corruption, theft of bank
deposits, and a reign of terror marked by assassinations and coercion. The
Lebanese people are now hostages in their own country, their fate manipulated by
Hezbollah’s whims and Tehran’s directives.
The current ceasefire does nothing to resolve these core issues. Instead, it
delays the inevitable resurgence of violence. The only viable solution lies in
decisive international action, including the invocation of Chapter VII of the UN
Charter to declare Lebanon a failed and rogue state. The United Nations must
assume temporary governance, enforce UN resolutions, The Armistice,
Accord, 1559, 1680, and 1701, and take comprehensive measures to disarm and
dismantle all militias—starting with Hezbollah. Restoring the Lebanese Army as
the sole military authority and empowering the Lebanese people to rebuild their
nation free from the grip of Iranian occupation are essential steps to reclaim
sovereignty.
Hezbollah’s continued existence poses a direct threat not only to Lebanon’s
future but also to Israel’s security and the stability of the entire region.
Allowing this terrorist organization to survive in any capacity guarantees that
Lebanon will remain an Iranian proxy, a battleground for Tehran’s ambitions, and
a platform for global terrorism.
We warn the international community: Hezbollah and its Iranian masters cannot be
trusted to honor any agreements. Hezbollah epitomizes evil—corrupt, sectarian,
and fundamentally opposed to peace, humanity, and civilization. Turning a blind
eye to its crimes under the guise of a ceasefire is a betrayal of Lebanon,
Israel, and the Middle East at large.
In conclusion, half-measures are no longer an option. The international
community must abandon the illusion of temporary solutions and confront the root
of the problem. Only decisive action—disarming Hezbollah and restoring Lebanon’s
sovereignty—can secure lasting peace and stability in the region. Anything less
is a grave disservice to Lebanon, Israel, and the world.
Elias Bejjani/Text and Video: Dr. Charles Chartouni, who was
forced to leave Lebanon due to a politicized judiciary, is the voice of every
free and sovereign Lebanese rejecting Hezbollah's occupation
Elias Bejjani – October 24, 2024
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2024/11/137231/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T0eOyrZSWsc
Our beloved Lebanon is currently
an occupied country, its free citizens are oppressed, its people are crushed and
subdued, its state is failed and rogue, and its rulers, along with the
political, parties, and religious establishments, are mere tools in the hands of
the Iranian occupier and its terrorist jihadist proxy, Hezbollah. As for the
judiciary in Lebanon, it has been transformed under the occupation into a mere
too run by Hezbollah, executing its orders and prosecuting free and sovereign
Lebanese citizens with fabricated charges and cases dictated to it, far removed
from any legality or constitutionality.
This judiciary, controlled by Hezbollah's oppressive, criminal, and Iranian
Mullahs' regime, has been forcibly silenced through intimidation and terror. It
has turned a blind eye to hundreds of crimes, including displacement,
assassinations, oppression, smuggling, money laundering, and property
confiscation, with the Beirut Port explosion being one of the most egregious
crimes.
Because of this politicized, hollow judiciary, stripped of all notions of
justice, law, treaties, and rights, and because its officials, due to their
submission and allegiance to the occupier, lack even a basic understanding of
their constitutional duties, and due to this paralyzed judicial body, Dr.
Charles Chartouni was forced to leave Lebanon today. Lebanon is his beloved
homeland, to which he dedicated his life, knowledge, and talents, serving it,
defending it, and fighting for its people, sovereignty, independence, and
freedoms at home and abroad across all fields.
The charges fabricated by the politicized judiciary against Dr. Chartouni under
the occupier's directives are, in reality, medals of honor on his chest and a
source of pride for every free Lebanese citizen. These accusations stem from his
fierce and relentless defense of sovereignty, independence, the constitution,
freedoms, and dignity. He bore witness to the truth loudly, like John the
Baptist, without fear or compromise. He exposed the lies, heresies, distortions,
and violations of the Iranian occupier embodied by Hezbollah, challenged its
terrorism, and called things by their true names.
Dr. Chartouni, a brave and heroic figure, represents all free Lebanese citizen,
regardless of their sect or affiliation, whether residing in Lebanon or in the
Diaspora. He rejects injustice, occupation, dependency, submission, and bowing
down, and stands steadfastly for the truth and justice.
We stand with Dr. Chartouni, with his struggle for peace, justice, freedoms, the
rule of law, independence, and liberation. We stand with his determination, his
bold voice against the occupation, and his unwavering faith in Lebanon. With all
the components of hope and resilience, we loudly say no—a thousand times no—to
intellectual oppression, to the occupation, to its symbols, and to its tools.
A thousand heartfelt salutes to Dr. Chartouni, the honorable, brave, and
steadfast fighter.
Israeli soldiers desecrate
church in southern Lebanon in latest religious site incident
Arab News/November 26, 2024
LONDON: Israeli soldiers have come under fire after a video surfaced showing
them desecrating a Christian church in southern Lebanon, marking the latest
attack on a religious site amid rumors of an imminent truce in Lebanon. The
incident reportedly took place in Deir Mimas, near the border with Israel, and
involved soldiers from the Israeli Defense Forces Golani Special Operations
Unit. The video, which began circulating widely online on Monday, depicts the
soldiers performing a mock wedding ceremony inside the Orthodox church, sparking
outrage across social media platforms. The footage shows a male soldier,
pretending to be a bride, wearing a hood and participating in a staged ritual
led by another soldier using a disconnected microphone. The mock priest asked
for the bride and groom’s names as the group laughed. The scene escalates into
chaos as another soldier interrupts, kneels before the “bride,” and simulates a
dramatic objection, followed by soldiers piling on top of each other. The timing
of the video remains unclear, but its release has drawn condemnation online.
Karim Emile Bitar, professor of international relations at Saint Joseph
University in Beirut, called it a blatant act of disrespect, posting on X:
“Another video of Israeli soldiers desecrating a Church in South Lebanon and
mocking the holy sacraments. Deafening silence of US and European politicians
who spent the past 20 years masquerading as defenders of Eastern Christians,
only to pander to Western Islamophobes.”
Other users voiced their anger, accusing Western Christians of ignoring Israeli
acts of disrespect toward non-Jewish religious sites. “It is incomprehensible
that US Christians continue to blindly defend Israelis who desecrate the
Church,” voiced another user. This incident follows a string of troubling
actions targeting cultural and religious landmarks by Israeli forces. Earlier
this month, the same IDF brigade allegedly vandalized two memorials in Hula,
south Lebanon, using graffiti that read, “A good Shiite is a dead Shiite.”In
August, footage emerged showing IDF soldiers burning copies of the Qur’an in a
Gaza mosque, drawing widespread condemnation and prompting an internal Israeli
Military Police investigation.
Israel security cabinet
approves ceasefire deal with Lebanon — TV
Reuters/November 26, 2024
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2024/11/137304/
JERUSALEM: Israel’s security cabinet has agreed a ceasefire deal with Lebanon,
Channel 12 reported on Tuesday. The accord was expected to take effect on
Wednesday. Israel’s security cabinet convened on Tuesday to discuss and approve
the text at a meeting chaired by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
EU’s foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said Tuesday that Israel has no reason
to refuse a ceasefire with Lebanon along the lines proposed by France and the
United States. “There is not an excuse for not implementing a ceasefire...
No more excuses. No more additional requests. Stop this fighting. Stop killing
people,” Borrell said at a G7 foreign ministers meeting near Rome. Lebanon's
foreign minister Abdallah Bou Habib said he hoped a ceasefire to end fighting
between Israel and Lebanese armed group Hezbollah would be agreed later on
Tuesday. He said the Lebanese army would be ready to have at least 5,000 troops
deployed in southern Lebanon as Israeli troops withdraw, and that the United
States could play a role in rebuilding infrastructure destroyed by Israeli
strikes.
As truce talks intensified, Lebanon’s health ministry said Israeli strikes
killed at least 31 people on Monday, mostly in the south.
An Israeli official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the security
cabinet “will decide on Tuesday evening on the ceasefire deal.”
US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said the talks were
progressing but not finalized. “We believe we’ve reached this point where we’re
close,” he said, adding “we’re not there yet.”Meanwhile the UN rights chief is
gravely concerned over the escalating conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in
Lebanon and wants a “permanent ceasefire” there and in war-ravaged Gaza, his
spokesman said Tuesday.
“The only way to end the suffering of people on all sides is a permanent and
immediate ceasefire on all fronts: in Lebanon, in Israel and in Gaza,” Jeremy
Laurence, a spokesman for Volker Turk, told reporters in Geneva. While Israel
presses its offensive on Palestinian militants Hamas in Gaza, the United States
and France have led efforts to broker a ceasefire in Lebanon, where Israel is
battling the Iran-backed Hezbollah on a second front. France reported
“significant progress” in ceasefire talks, and Italy, which holds the rotating
presidency of the G7 group of nations, expressed “optimism” over a truce in
Lebanon.
US news outlet Axios reported the draft agreement includes a 60-day transition
period. Israeli forces would withdraw, the Lebanese army would redeploy near the
border, and Hezbollah would move heavy weapons north of the Litani River, said
Axios.
A US-led committee would oversee implementation, with provisions allowing Israel
to act against imminent threats if Lebanese forces fail to intervene, it added.
News of the security cabinet meeting came as the Israeli military said it
carried out a wave of strikes on Monday, including on Beirut’s southern suburbs,
a Hezbollah stronghold that Israel has repeatedly bombed since late September
when it escalated its air campaign in Lebanon. The latest strikes hit around two
dozen Hezbollah targets across Lebanon in one hour, the military said. A
statement said “command centers, and intelligence control and collection
centers, where Hezbollah commanders and operatives were located,” were targeted.
The strikes followed intense Hezbollah fire over the weekend, including some
attacks deep into Israel.
What does the US-brokered
truce ending Israel-Hezbollah fighting include?
Reuters/November 27, 2024
BEIRUT: Israel and Lebanese armed group Hezbollah are set to implement a
ceasefire early on Wednesday as part of a US-proposed deal for a 60-day truce to
end more than a year of hostilities. The text of the deal has not been published
and Reuters has not seen a draft. US President Joe Biden announced the deal,
saying it was designed to be a permanent cessation of hostilities. Israel’s
security cabinet has approved it and it will be put to the whole cabinet for
review. Lebanon Prime Minister Najib Mikati welcomed the deal, which Hezbollah
approved last week. The agreement, negotiated by US mediator Amos Hochstein, is
five pages long and includes 13 sections, according to a senior Lebanese
political source with direct knowledge of the matter.
Here is a summary of its key provisions.
HALT TO HOSTILITIES
The halt to hostilities is set to begin at 4 a.m local time (0200 GMT) on
Wednesday, Biden announced, with both sides expected to cease fire by Wednesday
morning. The senior Lebanese source said Israel was expected to “stop carrying
out any military operations against Lebanese territory, including against
civilian and military targets, and Lebanese state institutions, through land,
sea and air.” All armed groups in Lebanon — meaning Hezbollah and its allies —
would halt operations against Israel, the source said.
ISRAELI TROOPS WITHDRAW
Two Israeli officials said the Israeli military would withdraw from southern
Lebanon within 60 days. Biden said the troops would gradually pull out and
civilians on both sides would be able to return home. Lebanon had earlier pushed
for Israeli troops to withdraw as quickly as possible within the truce period,
Lebanese officials told Reuters. They now expect Israeli troops to withdraw
within the first month, the senior Lebanese political source said.
A Lebanese official told Reuters the deal included language that preserved both
Lebanon’s and Israel’s rights to self-defense.
HEZBOLLAH PULLS NORTH, LEBANESE ARMY DEPLOYS
Hezbollah fighters will leave their positions in southern Lebanon to move north
of the Litani River, which runs about 30 kilometers (20 miles) north of the
border with Israel. Their withdrawal will not be public, the senior Lebanese
political source said. He said the group’s military facilities “will be
dismantled” but it was not immediately clear whether the group would take them
apart itself, or whether the fighters would take their weapons with them as they
withdrew. The Lebanese army would deploy troops to south of the Litani to have
around 5,000 soldiers there, including at 33 posts along the border with Israel,
a Lebanese security source told Reuters. “The deployment is the first challenge
— then how to deal with the locals that want to return home,” given the risks of
unexploded ordnance, the source said. More than 1.2 million people have been
displaced by Israeli strikes on Lebanon, many of them from south Lebanon.
Hezbollah sees the return of the displaced to their homes as a priority,
Hezbollah lawmaker Hassan Fadlallah told Reuters.
Tens of thousands displaced from northern Israel are also expected to return
home.
MONITORING MECHANISM
One of the sticking points in the final days leading to the ceasefire’s
conclusion was how it would be monitored, Lebanon’s deputy speaker of parliament
Elias Bou Saab told Reuters. A pre-existing tripartite mechanism between the
United Nations peacekeeping force in southern Lebanon (UNIFIL), the Lebanese
army and the Israeli army would be expanded to include the US and France, with
the US chairing the group, Bou Saab said. Israel would be expected to flag
possible breaches to the monitoring mechanism, and France and the US together
would determine whether a violation had taken place, an Israeli official and a
Western diplomat told Reuters. A joint statement by Biden and French President
Emmanuel Macron said France and the US would work together to ensure the deal is
applied fully.
UNILATERAL ISRAELI STRIKES
Israeli officials have insisted that the Israeli army would continue to strike
Hezbollah if it identified threats to its security, including transfers of
weapons and military equipment to the group. An Israeli official told Reuters
that US envoy Amos Hochstein, who negotiated the agreement, had given assurances
directly to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that Israel could carry
out such strikes on Lebanon. Netanyahu said in a televised address after the
security cabinet met that Israel would strike Hezbollah if it violated the deal.
The official said Israel would use drones to monitor movements on the ground in
Lebanon. Lebanese officials say that provision is not in the deal that it
agreed, and that it would oppose any violations of its sovereignty.
Israel Approves Ceasefire
Deal with Lebanon, Netanyahu Says Focus Now on 'Iranian Threat'
Asharq Al-Awsat/November 27/2024
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Tuesday he was ready to
implement a ceasefire deal with Lebanon and would "respond forcefully to any
violation" by Hezbollah. In a television address, Netanyahu said he would put
the ceasefire accord to his full cabinet later in the evening. Israeli TV
reported that the more restricted security cabinet had earlier approved the
deal. "We will enforce the agreement and respond forcefully to any violation.
Together, we will continue until victory," he said. "In full coordination with
the United States, we retain complete military freedom of action. Should
Hezbollah violate the agreement or attempt to rearm, we will strike decisively."
He added that there were three reasons to pursue a ceasefire -- to focus on the
"Iranian threat", replenish depleted arms supplies and give the army a rest, and
finally to isolate Hamas, the group that triggered war in the region when it
launched an attack on Israel from Gaza last year. He said Hezbollah, which is
backed by Iran and allied to Hamas, was considerably weaker than it had been at
the start of the conflict. "We have set it back decades, eliminated ... its top
leaders, destroyed most of its rockets and missiles, neutralized thousands of
fighters, and obliterated years of terror infrastructure near our border," he
said. "We targeted strategic objectives across Lebanon, shaking Beirut to its
core." "We are changing the face of the Middle East," stated Netanyahu.The
accord was expected to take effect on Wednesday.
Israeli approval of the deal would pave the way for a ceasefire declaration by
US President Joe Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron, according to four
senior Lebanese sources who spoke to Reuters on Monday. Despite the diplomatic
breakthrough, hostilities raged as Israel dramatically ramped up its campaign of
air strikes in Beirut and other parts of Lebanon. However, there was no
indication that a truce in Lebanon would hasten a ceasefire and hostage-release
deal in devastated Gaza, where Israel is battling Palestinian group Hamas. The
Lebanon ceasefire agreement requires Israeli troops to withdraw from south
Lebanon and Lebanon's army to deploy in the region, officials say. Hezbollah
would end its armed presence along the border south of the Litani River.
Lebanese caretaker Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib said the Lebanese army
would be ready to have at least 5,000 troops deployed in southern Lebanon as
Israeli troops withdraw, and that the United States could play a role in
rebuilding infrastructure destroyed by Israeli strikes.
'Barrage’
In the hours before the announcement, Israeli strikes smashed more of Beirut's
densely-populated southern suburbs, a Hezbollah stronghold. The Israeli military
said one barrage of strikes had hit 20 targets in the city in just 120 seconds,
killing at least seven people and injuring 37, according to Lebanon's health
ministry. Israel issued its biggest evacuation warning yet, telling civilians to
leave 20 locations. Israeli military spokesperson Avichay Adraee said the air
force was conducting a "widespread attack" on Hezbollah targets across the city.
The Iran-backed Hezbollah has kept up rocket fire into Israel.
The UN rights chief voiced concern about the escalation of bloodshed in Lebanon
and his office said nearly 100 people had been reported killed by Israeli
airstrikes in recent days, including women, children and medics. Israel has
dealt Hezbollah massive blows since going on the offensive against the group in
September, killing its leader Hassan Nasrallah and other top commanders, and
pounding areas of Lebanon where the group holds sway. Over the past year,
more than 3,750 people have been killed in Lebanon and over one million have
been forced from their homes, according to Lebanon's health ministry, which does
not distinguish between civilians and combatants in its figures. Hezbollah
strikes have killed 45 civilians in northern Israel and the Israeli-occupied
Golan Heights. At least 73 Israeli soldiers have been killed in northern Israel,
the Golan Heights and in combat in southern Lebanon, according to Israeli
authorities.
Israel launches blitz on
Beirut
NAJIA HOUSSARI/Arab News/November 26, 2024
BEIRUT: Israeli attacks on Lebanon escalated unexpectedly on Tuesday, about two
hours before a scheduled meeting of Israel’s security cabinet to discuss and
possibly approve a ceasefire agreement with Hezbollah that, if ratified, would
take effect at 6 a.m. on Wednesday. Heavy missiles, some containing concussion
bombs, rained down from low-flying warplanes in Beirut and its southern suburbs
after residents were warned to evacuate. Towns in southern Lebanon and parts of
the Bekaa were also targeted at the same time. An Israeli alert warning people
in Naqoura to leave the area immediately and move north of the Awali River
raised fears that the intention was to destroy neighborhoods in the border town
that had escaped damage during previous airstrikes. In Beirut, without any
advance warning, an airstrike hit a building in the Nowayri area housing
displaced persons. It was close to a medical center affiliated with Khatam Al-Anbiya
Mosque. As rescue teams worked to rescue survivors trapped in the rubble,
initial figures from the Ministry of Health suggested that at least three people
were killed and 26 injured in the targeted building, which partially collapsed,
and neighboring properties.
Minutes after this attack, Israeli authorities issued 24 warnings to residents
of the city’s southern suburbs. Within 10 minutes of these alerts, warplanes
simultaneously attacked neighborhoods in Haret Hreik, Burj Al-Barajneh, Bir
Al-Abed, Chiyah, Ghobeiry, Hay Madi, Jamous, Sfeir, Tayouneh, Old Saida Road,
and Ouzai. Maps that accompanied the warnings indicated that most of the
targeted locations contained residential buildings, cafes, restaurants and
schools. A security source said the raids destroyed or damaged more than 100
residential buildings, the greatest destruction in a single series of attacks
since conflict between Israel and Hezbollah escalated 64 days ago. The Israeli
army said it hit “seven Hezbollah funds management and storage targets, in
addition to Hezbollah command centers and Qard Al-Hassan (financial instituation)
branches.”
Other attacks targeted Baalbek-Hermel governorate, where warplanes carried out
strikes on Bouday, Yamouneh, Al-Ansar and Taraya. One raid targeted the area
around a Lebanese army outpost in Douris, close to Dar Al-Amal University
Hospital, which was hit last week. The head of the hospital and a number of
doctors were reportedly among the dead. Lebanese people posted messages on
social media expressing their fears that Israeli authorities intended to take
out their anger on Lebanon with constant attacks throughout the final day before
a ceasefire agreement comes into effect.
Amid the unprecedented escalation, however, it remained unclear whether a peace
deal would be reached or the negotiations would collapse, potentially resulting
in further escalation. Israel’s Army Channel reported that “Minister of Defense
Israel Katz and the Chief of the General Staff of the Israel Defense Forces
Herzi Halevi approved plans to continue attack operations on the northern
front.”Following a meeting with the UN’s special coordinator for Lebanon,
Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert, Katz issued a series of strongly worded statements
in which he said Israel “will act against any threat, at any time and anywhere”
and “we will call on the UNIFIL (UN Interim Force in Lebanon) to effectively
implement the (ceasefire) agreement.”
He added: “Any rebuilt house in southern Lebanon that contains a terrorist base
will be destroyed, any armament will be attacked, any attempt to smuggle weapons
will be foiled, and any threat to our power and Israel’s citizens will be
destroyed immediately.”
Israeli media reports stated that any agreement approved on Tuesday “will not be
the end of the war but a ceasefire that will be evaluated on a daily basis.”
The head of Hezbollah’s parliamentary bloc, Mohammed Raad, said that “the
Israeli enemy might act disingenuously to impose amendments to the ceasefire
agreement … in order to end the resistance’s effectiveness.”He added: “Any
modification, whether it involves adding to or removing from the text of
Resolution 1701 is something that no rational person would accept.”Resolution
1701 was adopted by the UN Security Council in 2006 with the aim of resolving
the conflict that year between Israel and Hezbollah. It calls for an end to
hostilities, the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanon, the withdrawal of
Hezbollah and other forces from parts of the country south of the Litani River,
and the disarmament of Hezbollah and other armed groups. The Israel Broadcasting
Authority reported: “Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has agreed to a
ceasefire agreement following US assurances to provide Israel with prohibited
weapons.”It said that “the call for residents of northern towns to return to
their homes will occur two months after the implementation of the agreement” and
“any indirect threat not addressed by UNIFIL forces will be dealt with by Israel
itself, which will thwart any attempts to smuggle weapons to Hezbollah.”In a
report citing information provided by an unnamed official, Israel’s Channel 12
news said: “The agreement has now entered the phase of refining the wording and
clarifying details without altering the essential terms, pending official
approval."
Other media reports said the agreement stipulates “a gradual withdrawal of
Israeli forces from the areas they have entered in southern Lebanon within 60
days” to allow the deployment of the Lebanese army, while a five-member
committee, with representatives of the US, France, Lebanon, Israel and UNIFIL,
will oversee the implementation of the ceasefire. Meanwhile, Israeli army radio
reported that “forces from the Golani Brigade have reached the Litani River
area, which is located 10 kilometers deep into southern Lebanon.” The military
also said it had killed “Ahmad Sobhi Hazima, the operations commander in
Hezbollah’s coastal sector.”The Israeli airstrikes on southern Lebanon on
Tuesday reportedly resulted in significant numbers of casualties, including
women, children and the elderly. They included a 91-year-old shepherd called
Qadduh, from Nabatieh, who was killed after he chose to remain in his home
rather than leave. Hezbollah, meanwhile, said its forces attacked “the
settlements of Kiryat Shmona, Avivim and Al-Manara.” The group also targeted
“the Habushit site on the summit of Mount Hermon in the occupied Syrian Golan,
and attacked the Ma’ale Golani Barracks with suicide drones.”
Ceasefire with Hezbollah:
What Israel’s 60-day pause entails – explainer
Jerusalem Post 26/2024
The ceasefire with Lebanon impacts the war against Hezbollah and will be
evaluated based on ground reports. The impending ceasefire deal between Israel
and Lebanon is not the “end of the war,” and it will be evaluated based on the
reality on the ground, a diplomatic official said on Monday evening. The deal’s
timing was due to a number of factors, the official said. The first was concern
over a unilateral decision in the United Nations Security Council that would
force Israel to cease its actions in southern Lebanon. The second was that it
enabled Israel to reevaluate the situation in two months, right after the new
administration takes over in the US. The third is that the deal may apply
pressure on Hamas, as it left Hamas alone in its conflict with Israel. This
could lead to a breakthrough in negotiations over a deal to bring back Israeli
hostages being held by Hamas in Gaza, the official said. Regroup if needed
Another factor is that the 60-day truce will enable the IDF to regroup and
prepare itself for further fighting if necessary, the official said. The truce
includes a “side document” that enables Israel to attack any Hezbollah
operatives who venture south of the Litani River, as well as attack any attempts
by Hezbollah to rearm itself, the official said. Israel would not immediately
call on residents of the North to return to their homes, and will continue
paying stipends to those who are evacuated. A decision to call on residents to
return to their homes will be made based on the reality on the ground at a later
stage, the official added..
'Surrender agreement':
Northern Israeli leaders slam potential Lebanon ceasefire deal
Jerusalem Post 26/2024
Kiryat Shmona mayor Avihay Shtern termed the potential deal "a surrender
agreement."
Heads of localities in the North have criticized in recent days the ceasefire
deal between Israel and Lebanon that could be signed in the near future. "A
ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon that does not include an
arrangement to ensure the security of the communities along Israel's northern
border would be a disaster," Moshe Davidovich, head of the Mateh Asher Regional
Council, said on Tuesday. "If a ceasefire agreement is signed between Lebanon
and Israel and it does not include a significant arrangement to restore the
security of the residents of the front-line communities before they return home
— including a buffer zone near the border with a strong international force and
the removal of Hezbollah beyond the Litani River — it will be a disaster for
generations," he stated. "We do not want to find ourselves repeating history,
facing the same failures as after the First and Second Lebanon Wars with
unenforced agreements. I remind the Israeli government that the residents of the
North are Israel’s first line of defense, and as such, their security must be
ensured."
'October 6 reality'
Kiryat Shmona mayor Avihay Shtern termed the potential deal "a surrender
agreement" in a Facebook post on Monday. "When you propose to return us to the
reality of October 6 in the North, where our sons could be taken captive, our
daughters raped, and our homes burned — we will not agree, we will not return,
and we will not cooperate with these surrender agreements," he wrote. Later on
Tuesday, Walla reported that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu invited the heads
of regional councils in the North to a meeting regarding the deal. Tens of
thousands of people are still displaced from their homes in the North after they
were evacuated following October 7 of last year. The US-brokered ceasefire
proposal outlines a 60-day truce during which Israeli forces would withdraw from
southern Lebanon, where the Lebanese military would be deployed, barring
Hezbollah from entrenching itself in the area.
*Joanie Margulies, Reuters, and Hannah Sarisohn contributed to this report
G7 Leaders Endorse
Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire and Insist Israel Follow International Law
Asharq Al-Awsat/November 27/2024
Foreign ministers from the world’s industrialized countries said Tuesday they
strongly supported an immediate ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah and
insisted that Israel comply with international law in its ongoing military
operations in the region. At the end of their two-day summit, the ministers
didn’t refer directly to the International Criminal Court and its recent arrest
warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his former defense
minister over crimes against humanity.Italy had put the ICC warrants on the
official meeting agenda, even though the G7 was split on the issue. The US,
Israel’s closest ally, isn’t a signatory to the court and has called the
warrants “outrageous.”However, the EU’s chief diplomat Josep Borrell said all
the other G7 countries were signatories and therefore obliged to respect the
warrants. In the end, the final statement adopted by the ministers said Israel,
in exercising its right to defend itself, “must fully comply with its
obligations under international law in all circumstances, including
international humanitarian law.” And it said all G7 members — Canada, France,
Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States – “reiterate our
commitment to international humanitarian law and will comply with our respective
obligations.” It stressed that “there can be no equivalence between the
terrorist group Hamas and the State of Israel.”The ICC warrants say there's
reason to believe Netanyahu used “starvation as a method of warfare” by
restricting humanitarian aid and intentionally targeted civilians in Israel’s
campaign against Hamas in Gaza — charges Israeli officials deny.
What’s Iran next move if a
ceasefire with Lebanon happens? - analysis
Seth J. Frantzman/Jerusalem Post 26/2024
The ceasefire will be important for Iran and the region and could be a turning
point.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that Iran backs the “resistance” in
Lebanon during a phone call with an Iranian official. Iran is talking up the
“resistance” ahead of a possible ceasefire in Lebanon between Israel and
Hezbollah, stressing that it backs the Lebanese “people and government.” Iran
sent a medical mission to Lebanon this week as part of that show of support, but
behind the scenes, Iran continues to smuggle weapons to Hezbollah. “Speaking in
a phone call with the special representative of the Minister of Foreign Affairs
in the West Asian region, Mohammad Reza Ra’ouf Sheibani, Araghchi praised the
Resistance Front, especially the resistance of the Lebanese people in recent
weeks against the Zionist regime’s army,” Iran’s state media IRNA said on
Tuesday. “He also commended the courage of the resistance fighters in southern
Lebanon. Meanwhile, Sheibani presented a report on the latest efforts to stop
the Zionist regime’s aggression against Lebanon and to establish a ceasefire.”
The ceasefire will be important for Iran and the region and could be a turning
point. This is because Iran has sought to link Hezbollah to Gaza so that it was
forced to enter the war against Israel after the Hamas attack on October 7. Even
though Hezbollah supports Hamas, it is believed not to have known the exact
timing of the attack, and as such, Hezbollah may have been pre-empted and drawn
into a war at a time it did not choose. Hezbollah then sought to create an
equation with Israel where Hezbollah carved out a “right” to attack northern
Israel after Israel attacked some Hezbollah sites in southern Lebanon. That all
changed in mid-September when Israel vowed to return its citizens to the North
to areas threatened by Hezbollah. Since then, Israel has launched a ground
operation in Lebanon to clear Hezbollah from the border.
On Tuesday, the military released photos of the head of IDF’s Northern Command
at the Litani River. He is literally putting his boots where Hezbollah once was.
This is supposed to be a symbolic victory photo. Israel has reached the
proverbial Rubicon and has turned back toward a ceasefire. At least, that’s what
the reports indicate.
Iran weighing its own Rubicon
Iran is also weighing its own Rubicon, the river in northern Italy, which Caesar
reached before he marched on Rome 2,000 years ago. Iran may now move towards
nuclear armament. It may also seek to push its proxies in Iraq and Syria to
strike at Israel or increase threats to the Golan. If there is a 60-day period
for the ceasefire, Iran will have much to do because the 60 days coincides
roughly with the lead-up to US president-elect Donald Trump taking office. The
next weeks will be important to see which way Iran heads. Does it focus
internally on nuclear weapons, or does it seek to push its proxies to escalate
attacks on Israel?
Iran wants to assert
dominance over Lebanon amid talks on ceasefire deal
Raqquel Guertzenstein/Jerusalem Post 26/2024
"This means, on the one hand, that the Iranians are the ones in control within
Lebanon, and they are also looking out for their own interests," he explained.
By saying it will accept any deal Lebanon signs with Israel, Iran has attempted
to reflect its status as the “real power” in Lebanon, Iranian affairs expert Roi
Kahanovich told Maariv in a recent interview. "This means, on the one hand, that
the Iranians are the ones in control within Lebanon, and they are also looking
out for their own interests," he explained. Iran's interests in the agreement
focus on two main aspects, Kahanovich explained. These aspects are "continuing
to advance their nuclear program" and "beginning to rehabilitate Hezbollah,"
which he described as "Iran's most significant proxy on the border with Israel."
According to Kahanovich, "At the moment, there is no official statement, but I
believe that in the coming hours, as we approach the ceasefire or the signing of
an agreement, we will see various tweets from regime officials
themselves.”Despite Iran’s involvement, Western powers, mainly the US and
France, are leading the diplomatic efforts toward a ceasefire. “For France, it’s
about their historical ties to Lebanon, while the Americans see themselves as a
global power aiming to exert influence,” Kahanovich said.
Iran shifts strategy amid threats against Israel
In the context of Iranian threats against Israel, Kohanovich commented on recent
developments, saying, "Let’s not forget that Iran hasn’t stopped issuing threats
of retaliation. Their so-called ‘righteous promise number three’ states that
they will attack Israel." However, he assessed that Iran’s relatively restrained
attacks and the potential reelection of Donald Trump are shaping its posture.
"It’s very possible that the prospect of Trump’s return is causing Iran to climb
down from the high tree they’ve ascended." On Iran’s role and influence on the
situation in Gaza, Kohanovich painted a complex picture.“There’s no doubt that
Iran is a key player influencing groups like Hamas, Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad,
and others,” he said. Kohanovich estimated that “as much as Iran wants it, and
if it really pushes for some kind of agreement, then it can happen,” but said,
“Right now, Iran isn’t fully committed because they want to see which way the
wind blows.”Kohanovich explained that Iranian considerations are also influenced
by the need to restore forces. “They’ve suffered significant losses in manpower,
weaponry, and other resources,” he added, noting Iran is navigating between its
regional ambitions and the shifting political landscape.
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-830841
IDF troops reach Litani
River in Lebanon for first time in over two decades
Jerusalem Post 26/2024
Following intelligence information, troops carried out raids on numerous terror
infrastructures that had been stowed in the area. IDF troops carried out
operations in the area of the Litani River in Lebanon, the military said on
Tuesday, marking the first time in over two decades that IDF soldiers have
reached the area. Following intelligence information, troops carried out raids
on numerous terror infrastructures that had been stowed in the area. Soldiers
also reportedly carried out close-quarters combat and demolished dozens of
launchers and thousands of rockets and missiles. The military added that troops
destroyed weapons storage facilities hidden within the mountainside. Operating
in the Saluki area Troops also carried out operations in the Saluki area of
southern Lebanon, finding and confiscating weapons along with dozens of rocket
launchers that had been ready for use, the IDF reported.
Hezabollah, Israeli
military ramp up attacks ahead of expected cease-fire
Paul Godfrey/United Press International/November 26, 2024
At least two people were injured, one seriously, amid an uptick in Hezbollah
rocket attacks on northern Israel overnight ahead of a meeting later Tuesday of
the country's security cabinet to approve a 60-day cease-fire with the
Iran-backed group. The two casualties came in Nahariya, where a 70-year-old
woman and a man in his 80s sustained shrapnel injuries after a barrage of 10
rockets were launched at Israel's most northerly coastal city and other
settlements in the Western Galilee region. The Magen David Adom national
emergency service said the woman's condition was serious. Several other people
were being treated for shock and anxiety. Air raid sirens sounded along Israel's
northern border with Lebanon on Tuesday morning before a rocket struck a home in
Kiryat Shmona, police and fire and rescue services said, but no one was reported
hurt. Separately, the Israeli military reported one of its soldiers was
seriously wounded in the Mount Hermon area on the Lebanon-Syria border in a
drone strike. Israel Defense Forces said it was investigating the incident after
a drone launched from Lebanon detonated near troops. Israel responded with
airstrikes on Beirut and Tyre in southern Lebanon.
The IDF issued evacuation orders for specific buildings, including two schools,
in the Burj Al-Barajneh and pond enclosure districts of Beirut's southern
suburbs before hitting what it said were "Hezbollah facilities and
interests.""You are located near Hezbollah facilities and interests, against
which the IDF will operate in the near future. For your safety and the safety of
your family members, you must evacuate these buildings and those adjacent to
them immediately and stay away from them for a distance of no less than 500
meters," the IDF warned in a post on X.
Footage circulating online showed palls of black smoke rising from areas of the
capital.
The IDF also claimed its warplanes killed Hezbollah commander Ahmed Sobhi Hazima
in a targeted attack on the Tyre area in the south. Hazima was the group's
operations commander for the coastal sector, according to the Israeli military,
having replaced a previous commander the IDF killed in a raid Nov. 17.
"The so-called Hazima was supervising numerous terrorist plots, including plans
to storm the border and launch anti-tank shells toward Israeli towns from the
western sector before Operation Northern Arrows," said IDF spokesman Avichay
Adraee in a post on X. "This elimination further impairs the Hezbollah terrorist
organization's ability to advance and carry out terrorist activities from
southern Lebanon against Israeli civilians on the northern border."France and
the European Union added their support to a draft cease-fire agreement
negotiated by U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein for a 60-day transition period during
which Israel withdraws its forces from south Lebanon, Hezbollah retreats north
of the Litani River with its heavy weapons and the Lebanese Army, backed by the
U.N. peacekeeping force, would fill a vacuum close to the border. President
Emmanuel Macron urged Israel and Hezbollah to "quickly seize this opportunity"
presented by the negotiations which he said had "significantly advanced" as of
late Monday. U.S. National Security Council spokesman John Kirby expressed
optimism, saying he believed "we've reached this point where we're close," but
warned the effort might not get to the finish line. Reports in Israeli and
international media said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu agreed in
principle to a U.S.-backed cease-fire with Hezbollah in Lebanon and was working
out how to sell it to the Israeli public. Jerusalem saw the deal not as the end
of the war but as a cessation of hostilities, according to a government official
quoted by The Times of Israel, who said. "We don't know how long it will last.
It could be a month, it could be a year."Reports carried by Kan, Ynet and
Haaretz, cited officials in Jerusalem, Washington and Beirut, said approval of
the proposal was not final, that several sticking points remained to be resolved
and that the state of play had been communicated to Lebanon. The plan has
provoked angry response from some quarters in Israel including Israeli National
Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir who called it "a big mistake" and a "missed
opportunity to eradicate Hezbollah."Lebanon's Deputy House Speaker, Bou Saab,
told reporters at the end of a parliament session Monday that Lebanon would "not
accept anything that harms its sovereignty," accusing Israel of "escalating to
obtain concessions" from Lebanon.
Israel bombards central Beirut as its leadership
prepares to vote on ceasefire with Hezbollah
Kareem Chehayeb/BEIRUT (AP)/November 26, 2024
— Israeli jets struck a residential building in central Beirut on Tuesday and
issued new evacuation orders for 20 buildings in the Lebanese capital's southern
suburbs. The strike leveled the building in central Beirut's Basta neighborhood,
the second strike in recent days in the crowded area near the city's downtown.
There were no immediate report of casualties. It was not immediately clear if
anyone in particular was targeted, though Israel says its airstrikes target
Hezbollah officials and assets. In a signal of more strikes to come, Israeli
military spokesman Avichay Adraee issued evacuation warnings for 20 buildings in
the southern Beirut suburbs, as well as a warning for the southern town of
Naqoura where the United Nations peacekeeping mission, known as UNIFIL, is
headquartered. The Beirut strike came hours before Israel's security Cabinet was
scheduled to meet to vote on a U.S.-brokered ceasefire deal aimed at ending more
than a year of fighting between Israel and the Lebanese Hezbollah militant
group.
THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. AP’s earlier story follows below.
Israeli warplanes struck buildings in Beirut’s suburbs and in a southern
Lebanese city Tuesday, as Israel’s security Cabinet prepared to vote on a
U.S.-brokered ceasefire proposal aimed at ending more than a year of fighting
with Hezbollah. Hopes have risen for the deal, which calls for a two-month
initial halt in fighting and would require Hezbollah to end its armed presence
in a broad swath of southern Lebanon, while Israeli troops would return to their
side of the border. Israel’s security Cabinet, meeting Tuesday afternoon, was
expected to approve the proposal, which Lebanese officials have said Hezbollah
also supports. Among the main sticking points has been an Israeli demand to
reserve the right to act should Hezbollah violate its obligations. Under the
proposal, thousands of Lebanese troopsand U.N. peacekeepers would deploy in the
south, and an international panel headed by the United States would monitor all
sides’ compliance. Israel’s Defense Minister Israel Katz said the military would
strike Hezbollah if the U.N. peacekeeping force, known as UNIFIL, doesn’t
provide “effective enforcement” of the deal. “If you don’t act, we will act, and
with great force,” he said, speaking with U.N. special envoy Jeanine
Hennis-Plasschaert.The European Union’s top diplomat, Josep Borrell, said
Tuesday that Israel’s security concerns had been addressed in the
U.S.-French-brokered deal. “There is not an excuse for not implementing a
ceasefire. Otherwise, Lebanon will fall apart,” Borrell told reporters in Fiuggi,
Italy, on the sidelines of a Group of Seven meeting. He said the U.S. would
chair a ceasefire implementation committee, and France would participate at the
request of Lebanon.
Bombardment of Beirut's southern suburbs continues
Even as Israeli, U.S, Lebanese and international officials have expressed
growing optimism over a ceasefire, Israel has continued its campaign in Lebanon,
which it says aims to cripple Hezbollah’s military capabilities. Israeli jets
struck at least six buildings in Beirut’s southern suburbs Tuesday. One strike
slammed near the country’s only airport, sending large plumes of smoke into the
sky. There were no immediate reports of casualties. The airport has continued to
function despite its location on the Mediterranean coast next to the densely
populated suburbs where many of Hezbollah’s operations are based. Other strikes
hit in the southern city of Tyre, where the Israeli militiary said it killed a
local Hezbollah commander. The Israeli military also said its ground troops
reached parts of Lebanon’s Litani River — a focal point of the emerging
ceasefire. It said troops clashed with Hezbollah forces and destroyed rocket
launchers in the Slouqi area on the eastern end of the Litani, just a few
kilometers (miles) from the border. Under the ceasefire deal, Hezbollah would be
required to move its forces north of the Litani, which in some places is about
30 kilometers (20 miles) north of the Israeli border. A ceasefire between Israel
and Hezbollah, the strongest Iranian-backed force in the region, would likely
significantly calm regional tensions that have led to fears of a direct, all-out
war between Israel and Iran. It’s not clear how the ceasefire will affect the
Israel-Hamas war in Gaza. Hezbollah had long insisted that it would not agree to
a ceasefire until the war in Gaza ends, but it dropped that condition. Hezbollah
began firing into northern Israel, saying it was showing support for the
Palestinians, a day after Hamas carried out its Oct. 7, 2023, attack on southern
Israel, triggering the Gaza war. Israel returned fire on Hezbollah, and the two
sides have been exchanging barrages ever since. In early September, Israel
escalated its campaign of bombardment and sent troops into Lebanon, vowing to
put an end to Hezbollah fire. More than 3,760 people have been killed by Israeli
fire in Lebanon the past 13 months, many of them civilians, according to
Lebanese health officials. The bombardment has driven 1.2 million people from
their homes. Israel says it has killed more than 2,000 Hezbollah members.
Hezbollah fire has forced some 50,000 Israelis to evacuate homes in the
country’s north, and its rockets have reached as far south in Israel as Tel
Aviv. At least 75 people have been killed, more than half of them civilians.
More than 50 Israeli soldiers died fighting in the ground offensive in Lebanon.
After previous hopes for a ceasefire were dashed, U.S. officials cautioned that
negotiations were not yet complete and noted that there could be last-minute
hitches that either delay or destroy an agreement. “Nothing is done until
everything is done,” White House national security spokesman John Kirby said.
While the ceasefire proposal is expected to be approved if Netanyahu brings it
to a vote in his security Cabinet, one hard-line member, National Security
Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, said he would oppose it. He said on X that a deal with
Lebanon would be a “big mistake” and a “missed historic opportunity to eradicate
Hezbollah.”
Why an 18-year-old UN resolution is critical to ending the
Lebanon-Israel war
Nadeen Ebrahim, CNN/November 26, 2024
With a Hezbollah-Israel ceasefire on the horizon, an 18-year-old United Nations
resolution has resurfaced as a blueprint for ending the war. The Israeli cabinet
is set to vote on a ceasefire deal on Tuesday, Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu’s spokesperson told CNN on Monday, noting that the agreement will
likely be approved. The 60-day cessation of hostilities aims to implement UN
Security Council Resolution 1701, with the hope that it could form the basis of
a lasting truce. Resolution 1701 was adopted to end a 34-day war between Israel
and Lebanon in 2006, and had kept relative calm in the area for nearly two
decades. That lasted until the day after Hamas’ October 7 attack on Israel last
year, when Hezbollah attacked in solidarity, beginning more than a year of
conflict. The resolution stipulated that Israel must withdraw all its forces
from southern Lebanon, and that the only armed groups present in south of the
Litani river should be the Lebanese military and UN peacekeeping forces. The
United States, which is mediating between Israel and Lebanon in the current
conflict, believes a return to the principles of the resolution is in the
interest of both parties, but has insisted on a mechanism to enforce it more
strictly. Israel has argued that Hezbollah has breached the resolution multiple
times by operating close to its border. Lebanon says Israel regularly breached
the agreement over the past two decades by sending fighter jets into its
airspace. Here’s what we know about the resolution and why it is critical to a
ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon.
A brief history
Israel launched an invasion into Lebanon in 1982, sending tanks all the way to
the capital Beirut, after coming under attack from Palestinian militants in the
country. It then occupied southern Lebanon for almost two decades until the year
2000, when it was driven out by Hezbollah, created – with backing from Iran – to
resist the Israeli occupation. In 2000, the UN established the so-called Blue
Line, a “line of withdrawal” for Israeli forces from Lebanon. That boundary now
serves as the de facto border between the two countries.
Lebanon has however claimed that Israel did not complete its withdrawal from the
country, continuing to occupy the Shebaa Farms, a 15-square-mile (39-square-km)
patch of land Israel has held since 1967.Israel claims the Shebaa Farms area is
part of the Golan Heights, which it captured from Syria and later annexed. The
international community – with the notable exception of the United States –
considers the Golan Heights to be occupied territory belonging to Syria.
Resolution 1701
Israel invaded Lebanon again in 2006 after Hezbollah killed three soldiers and
kidnapped two others – in an effort to compel the release of Lebanese prisoners.
The war lasted just over a month and resulted in the death of more than 1,000
Lebanese, mostly civilians, as well as 170 Israelis, mostly soldiers. On August
11, 2006, the UN Security Council unanimously adopted Resolution 1701, which
called for “a full cessation of hostilities” by Hezbollah and Israel. The
resolution demanded that Israel withdraw all its forces from southern Lebanon,
and for the Lebanese government and the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) “to
deploy their forces together throughout the south.” No other armed personnel
would be permitted in the area. It also called on the Lebanese government “to
exercise its full sovereignty, so that there will be no weapons without the
consent of the Government of Lebanon and no authority other than that of the
Government of Lebanon.”A 10,000-troop UN peacekeeping force, UNIFIL is the main
body tasked with implementing Resolution 1701 on the ground. A UN-mediated
prisoner exchange between Israel and Hezbollah in 2008 saw the return of the
remains of the two Israeli soldiers captured in 2006 for five Lebanese
prisoners. Israel later released the bodies of some 200 Arabs.
Escalation since October 8
Hezbollah began firing at the Israeli-held Shebaa Farms on October 8, 2023, in
what it later said was solidarity with the Palestinians of Gaza, a day after
Gaza-based Hamas launched a major attack on southern Israel, killing
approximately 1,200 people and taking another 251 hostage. Israel fired back.
Between October 8, 2023 and the end of June, UNIFIL detected 15,101 cross border
trajectories, of which 12,459 were from Israel into Lebanon, and 2,642 Lebanon
into Israel,” the UN said on October 1, adding that “while most exchanges of
fire have been confined to within a few kilometers of either side of the Blue
Line, several strikes have reached as far as 130 km into Lebanon and 30 km into
Israel.”Since then, cross border skirmishes continued but were contained along
the Israel-Lebanon frontier, until September this year, when Israel expanded its
war aims to including the return home for residents of the north, who were
displaced due to cross border attacks from Hezbollah, which said that it would
only stop attacks on Israel once a ceasefire is reached in Gaza. That was
followed by a massive aerial assault on Lebanon, and the October 1 ground
invasion into the country.
Where each party stands on 1701
The US has relayed to Lebanon a proposal that lies within the parameters of UN
Resolution 1701 and aims to achieve a 60-day cessation of hostilities, a
Lebanese official has told CNN. It focuses on stricter mechanisms to implement
Resolution 1701 in the south of the country and on the role of the Lebanese army
in doing so, the official said, adding that it also deals with smuggling routes
through the country’s international borders. The proposal also requires Israeli
ground forces, operating in southern Lebanon since October, to withdraw. But
some officials in Israel have said that simply returning to 1701 is not enough,
insisting that Israel must retain the right to strike Hezbollah targets in
Lebanon after a ceasefire deal should violations occur. Bezalel Smotrich, the
far-right Israeli minister of finance, has said that “full operational freedom”
for the Israeli military in southern Lebanon is “a non-negotiable condition.”“We
are changing the security paradigm and will not return to decades of concepts of
containment and threats without response. This will not happen again,” he said.
Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati has dismissed reports of demands to give
the Israeli military operational freedom in south Lebanon as “speculation,”
adding that he hasn’t seen such a clause in the proposal. Lebanese parliament
speaker Nabih Berri, who leads the Hezbollah-allied Amal party and is the
interlocutor in talks with Hezbollah, has said that the proposal he received
from the US does not include mention of Israeli military operational freedom in
Lebanon, adding that the US knows that such a demand would be “unacceptable.”State
Department spokesperson Matthew Miller has said that “there has been an exchange
of different ideas for how to see what we believe is in everyone’s interest,
which is the full implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701.”
Israeli cabinet likely to approve Lebanon ceasefire deal in Tuesday vote
Jeremy Diamond, CNN/November 26, 2024
The Israeli cabinet looks set to approve a ceasefire deal in Lebanon later
Tuesday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s spokesperson said, a move that
could potentially end the war that has killed thousands. Netanyahu had approved
the plan “in principle,” a source familiar with the matter told CNN on Monday,
adding that the prime minister signaled his potential approval for the deal with
Hezbollah during a security consultation with Israeli officials Sunday
night.Sources familiar with the negotiations said earlier that talks appear to
be moving positively toward an agreement, but acknowledged that as Israel and
Hezbollah continue to trade fire, one misstep could upend the talks. But later
Monday evening, a Lebanese official familiar with the discussions said a
ceasefire is expected to be announced “within 24 hours.”Lebanon has already
agreed to the US-backed proposal, which received Hezbollah’s approval, according
to multiple Lebanese official sources. Reports that a deal was nearing were met
with a mixed response in Israel. Itamar Ben Gvir, the country’s far-right
National Security Minister, called the deal a “big mistake” and said it would be
“a historic missed opportunity to eradicate Hezbollah.” Ben Gvir has also long
worked to thwart potential ceasefire deals between Israel and Hamas in Gaza.
Benny Gantz, who resigned from Israel’s war cabinet in June over Netanyahu’s
handling of the war in Gaza, called on the prime minister to make the details of
the ceasefire deal public. “It is the right of the residents of the north, the
fighters and the citizens of Israel to know,” Gantz said. Residents of northern
Israel – many of whom have been displaced by the conflict, along with residents
of southern Lebanon across the border – have also expressed concern about the
potential deal. Nizan Zeevi, who lives north of Kyriat Shimona in Kfar Kila
village, told CNN many residents view the deal as a “surrender agreement.”“Our
government is going to sign a very irresponsible agreement that is only a replay
of the same agreement” signed to end the war in 2006, Zeevi said. He said he
feared the deal would in time allow fighters in the Radwan Force, Hezbollah’s
special operation unit, to move closer to the border once more and “live right
next to” him and his family. “It’s my duty to my children to make sure that
there is no chance for another October 7,” he said, referring to the Hamas
attacks on southern Israel more than a year ago.
Diplomatic push
United States envoy Amos Hochstein said in Beirut last week that a ceasefire
deal between Israel and Lebanon was “within our grasp,” but that it was
ultimately “the decision of the parties.”He met Lebanese Prime Minister Najib
Mikati and parliament speaker Nabih Berri, the interlocutor with Hezbollah in
the talks and said there had been “constructive” and “very good discussions to
narrow the gaps.” “We have a real opportunity to bring conflict to an end,” he
added last week. “The window is now.” He departed Lebanon for Israel on
Wednesday to try to bring the negotiations “to a close.”The US-backed proposal
aims to achieve a 60-day cessation of hostilities that some hope could form the
basis of a lasting ceasefire. Later Monday, White House national security
spokesperson John Kirby said that Hochstein’s discussions had been
“constructive.” He said the Biden administration believes “the trajectory of
this is going in a very positive direction,” but cautioned “nothing is done
until everything is done.”State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller was
similarly cautious, telling reporters Monday that just because an agreement is
“close” does not mean it will happen. He said the process had been “incredibly
frustrating.”
Israel’s Home Front Command also warned of a heightened risk of Hezbollah rocket
fire before Tuesday’s crucial vote, and on Monday updated its defensive
guidelines for several parts of northern Israel. On Sunday, CNN analyst and
Axios reporter Barak Ravid cited a source as saying Hochstein had told the
Israeli ambassador to Washington on Saturday that if Israel did not respond
positively in the coming days to the ceasefire proposal, he would withdraw from
the mediation efforts. Hochstein’s trip to the region followed Beirut responding
“positively” to a US-backed proposal to stop the war, Mikati said last week,
adding that large parts of the draft agreement were resolved. Israel launched a
major military offensive in Lebanon in mid-September following months of
tit-for-tat border attacks which started on October 8 last year when Hezbollah
attacked Israeli controlled territory in solidarity with Hamas and Palestinians
in Gaza. Since then, Israel has launched a ground invasion, killed a string of
Hezbollah leaders – including one of its founders, Hassan Nasrallah – and
injured thousands of people in an attack featuring exploding pagers.
CNN’s Lauren Izso, Nic Robertson, Tamara Qiblawi, Michael Conte, Jennifer
Hansler and Christian Edwards contributed reporting.
‘Primary Source of Arms’: Israel Targets Syria-Lebanon
Border Crossings Used to Supply Weapons to Hezbollah
Flash Brief/November 26/2024
Latest Developments
• Israel Strikes Jusiyah Border Crossing: The Israeli Air Force struck the
Jusiyah border crossing between Lebanon and Syria on November 23, a key transit
point for the smuggle of weapons from Iran to its Lebanese proxy Hezbollah. The
weapons are transferred through Jusiyah and other Syrian-controlled crossings by
Unit 4400, the Hezbollah unit responsible for executing the weapons transfers.
• Heated Weekend Sees Uptick in Northern Front Fighting: Hezbollah launched
around 115 attacks at Israeli communities over two days during the weekend, an
increase from the Thursday and Friday’s total of 76. Additionally, the Israeli
Air Force struck “several” targets in Beirut’s Dahieh suburb over the weekend as
ceasefire talks reportedly edge closer to a deal.
• IDF Continues Targeting Weapons Supply Routes Through Syria: The strikes on
Jusiyah Crossing are the latest iteration of the IDF’s strategy of targeting
Hezbollah’s supply lines from Syria in an effort to halt weapons shipments from
Iran. In early October, the IDF targeted the Masnaa Crossing between Lebanon and
Syria, which had recently become the “primary source of arms” for Hezbollah.
FDD Expert Response
“The strike on the Jusiyah Crossing underscores that Israeli military action is
the only credible tool to degrade Hezbollah and prevent its regeneration. The
Lebanese government has long ceded its sovereignty and control over its borders
to the Islamic Republic of Iran, and it’s evident they have no intention of
reasserting either.” — David Daoud, Senior Fellow
“On Sunday alone, Hezbollah claimed 51 attacks against Israel, marking a
significant escalation compared to previous days. Hezbollah continues to receive
weapons shipments directly from Iran through multiple means, including Syria.
Consequently, Israel has bombed border crossings and previously interdicted
Iranian flights to Beirut in order to interrupt the flow of arms to Hezbollah
during the war.” — Joe Truzman, Senior Research Analyst and Editor at FDD’s Long
War Journal
“Hezbollah’s regeneration hinges on several factors, chief among them its
ability to secure funding and arms through its access to the Syrian border. Any
potential ceasefire agreement must address this issue comprehensively and find a
robust mechanism to enforce. Failing to do so risks repeating the mistakes of UN
Security Council Resolution 1701, where, in the decade and a half since its
passing, the Lebanese Armed Forces have failed to stop Hezbollah’s resurgence
and rearmament, leading to the situation today.”— Ahmad Sharawi, Research
Analyst
Israel kills wanted Hezbollah commander behind the
establishment of Iraq’s Iran-backed militias
Joe Truzman & Bill Roggio/FDD's Long War Journal/November 26/2024
A recent Israeli airstrike in Syria killed Ali Mousa Daqduq, one of Hezbollah’s
most wanted military leaders who served as the deputy commander of the Radwan
Unit at the time of his death, a senior US defense official confirmed to NBC
News. Daqduq, along with Qassem Soleimani, played an instrumental role in
establishing Iraq’s Iran-backed Shia militias during the early 2000s. These
militias now operate in Iraq, Syria, and Israel.
Few details about Daqduq’s elimination are available. However, on November 10,
both Israeli and Arab media reported that Israel Defense Forces (IDF) strikes in
Syria killed two prominent Hezbollah commanders: Ali Mousa Daqduq and Salim
Ayyash. Despite the reports, the IDF did not comment on the reported targeting.
Over the course of the war, the IDF has carried out numerous targeted
eliminations of top Hezbollah commanders. For example, on September 24, an
Israeli airstrike in Beirut killed 12 Radwan Force commanders, including its
chief, Ibrahim Aqil.
Daqduq played many roles throughout his career with Hezbollah. He was appointed
as the deputy commander of the Radwan Force in late September 2024 after the IDF
savaged the unit’s leadership in a series of airstrikes that month. The Radwan
Force is Hezbollah’s special operations unit tasked with infiltrating the
Israeli border and carrying out attacks inside the country against military and
civilian targets.
Before assuming a leadership role in the Radwan Force, Daqduq served as the
commander of the Golan Unit, a Hezbollah cell formed near the Golan Heights in
Syria to operate against Israel. Israel killed his son, Hassan Ali Daqduq, in an
airstrike in Syria’s Quneitra governorate in December 2023. Hassan Ali was also
a member of the Golan Unit.
Daqduq’s legacy in Iraq
The US government added Daqduq to its list of Specially Designated Global
Terrorists in November 2011 for his role in establishing the Iran-backed
militias that are responsible for the murder of at least 600 American soldiers
in Iraq.
According to the US Treasury Department, “In approximately 2005, Iran asked
Hezbollah to form a group to train Iraqis to fight Coalition Forces in Iraq. In
response, Hassan Nasrallah established a covert Hezbollah unit to train and
advise Iraqi militants in Jaish al Mahdi (JAM) [or Mahdi Army] and JAM Special
Groups, now known as Asaib Ahl al Haq [League of the Righteous],” a Mahdi Army
faction which is a US listed Foreign Terrorist Organization. Asaib Ahl al Haq
has emerged as one of the most powerful Shia terror organizations in Iraq today.
Daqduq worked closely with former Islamic Revolutionary Guards Force—Quds Force
commander Qassem Soleimani, Abu Mahdi al Muhandis, the former head of Iraq’s
Popular Mobilization Forces and the founder of Hezbollah Brigades, Qais Khazali,
the founder and leader of Asaib Ahl al Haq, and Abu Mustafa al Sheibani, the
founder of the Sheibani Network and current leader of Kata’ib Sayyid al-Shuhada,
to establish a network of militias loyal to Iran.
The US killed Muhandis and Soleimani in an airstrike in Baghdad in 2020.
The Iranian-backed militias that Daqduq, Hezbollah, and Iran spawned are now
powerful entities in Iraq and Syria. In Iraq, the militias wield significant
political power in parliament. At the same time, the military branches dominate
the Popular Mobilization Forces, an official arm of the Iraqi security
establishment that reports only to the prime minister.
In 2007, Daqduq was captured by the US military. After 11 months, he was
transferred to Iraqi custody and released in November 2012 after being acquitted
of terrorism charges. Following his release in 2012, the US added Daqduq to its
list of Specially Designated Global Terrorists. He soon returned to Lebanon and
was placed in charge of training Hezbollah’s special forces.
*Joe Truzman is a research analyst at FDD’s Long War Journal focused primarily
on Palestinian militant groups and Hezbollah. Bill Roggio is a Senior Fellow at
the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and the Editor of FDD’s Long War
Journal.
https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2024/11/israel-kills-wanted-hezbollah-commander-behind-the-establishment-of-iraqs-iran-backed-militias.php
Israeli strikes pound central Beirut, suburbs
Reuters/November 26, 2024
BEIRUT (Reuters) - Israeli strikes pounded a densely-populated part of the
Lebanese capital and its southern suburbs on Tuesday, hours ahead of an
anticipated announcement of a ceasefire ending hostilities between Israel and
Lebanese armed group Hezbollah.
A strike on Beirut hit the Noueiri district with no evacuation warning and
killed at least one person, Lebanon's health ministry said in a preliminary
toll. Minutes later, at least 10 Israeli strikes hit Beirut's southern suburbs.
They began approximately 30 minutes after the Israeli military issued evacuation
orders for 20 locations in the area, the largest such warning yet. As the
strikes were under way, Israel's military spokesperson Avichay Adraee said the
air force was conducting a "widespread attack" on Hezbollah targets across the
city.
Hezbollah says launched drones at ‘sensitive military
targets’ in Tel Aviv
AFP/November 27, 2024
BEIRUT, Lebanon: Lebanon’s Hezbollah said it launched drones at “sensitive
military targets” in Tel Aviv on Tuesday evening, after deadly Israeli strikes
in Beirut and as news of a ceasefire deal was announced. “In response to the
targeting of the capital Beirut and the massacres committed by the Israeli enemy
against civilians,” Hezbollah launched “drones at a group of sensitive military
targets in the city of Tel Aviv and its suburbs,” the Iran-backed group said in
a statement.
REVIEW OF THE ISRAELI-LEBANESE WARS TREATIES AND UNSC RESOLUTIONS (long but
essential read)
Roger Bejjani/Face Book/November 26/2024
On May 14, 1948, coinciding with the declaration of the State of Israel as per
UNGA resolution 181, and without any prior military conflict with the Jews in
Palestine, Lebanon’s Army has launched an attack coordinated with the Armies of
Egypt, Jordan, Iraq and Syria against the then born State of Israel. So, history
marks that Lebanon drew blood first. The objective (declared) was to throw the
Jews in the sea.
On March 23, 1949 Lebanon has signed with the Government of Israel the 1949
Armistice Agreement. Few of the interesting articles of this agreement being:
ARTICLE I
Point 1: 1. The injunction of the Security Council against resort to military
force in the settlement of the Palestine question shall henceforth be
scrupulously respected by both Parties.
Point 4: The establishment of an armistice between the armed forces of the two
Parties is accepted as an indispensable step toward the liquidation of armed
conflict and the restoration of peace in Palestine.
ARTICLE III
Point 2: No element of the land, sea or air military or para-military forces of
either Party, including non-regular forces, shall commit any warlike or hostile
act against the military or para-military forces of the other Party, or against
civilians in territory under the control of that Party; or shall advance beyond
or pass over for any purpose whatsoever the Armistice Demarcation Line
ARMISTICE BREACHES BY LEBANON
Starting 1965, 1 year following the creation of the PLO, Lebanon has willingly
or unwillingly breached the articles/points here above (especially point 2 of
Article III), thus allowing or not preventing PLO fighters to start attacking
Israel from Lebanon; hence breaching the Armistice agreement after 16 years of
absolute peace on our southern borders.
In 1969, Lebanon has willingly and officially breached the Armistice agreement
after signing and ratifying the Cairo Agreement that allowed the PLO
“officially” to use South Lebanon – FATEH Land – to attack Israel.
After being the initial aggressor in 1948, Lebanon was the first party to breach
the Armistice Agreement (since 1965 informally and formally since 1969)
Several Israeli incursions and brief occupations of South Lebanon were motivated
by pushing away the PLO forces from its Northern borders.
The PLO and as a consequence of the Lebanese civil war that was ignited in 1975,
became a State within the State and its political and military presence in
Lebanon was inflated dramatically.
This has led to the 1982 Israeli invasion of Lebanon and the successful eviction
of the PLO leadership and fighters from Lebanon.
MAY 17, 1983 ACCORD
On May 17, 1983 and following months of negotiations between Israel and Lebanon
under the patronage of the US, an agreement was signed by both the Government of
the Republic of Lebanon and the Government of the State of Israel. This
agreement referred to as the May 17 agreement was ratified by both the Lebanese
government and the Lebanese parliament. It was finally rescinded and annulled by
President Amine Gemayel as a consequence of military pressure initiated by the
PSP (Jumblat) and Amal (Berri) with the full backing of Syria. If May 17 accord
had survived, Israel would have withdrawn from Lebanon 16 years earlier as per
the terms of this accord, and the Lebanese Army + UNIFIL would have been the
exclusive armed forces in South Lebanon. Sounds familiar?? In other terms, this
accord fiercely fought by Jomblat/Berri/Syrians, would have prevented HZB to be
present in South Lebanon, hence would have prevented the dramatic sequence of
events that have destroyed Lebanon.
TAEF AGREEMENT
As a consequence of an ill prepared, ill-though war of “liberation” engaged by
Michel Aoun against the Syrian Army in Lebanon on March 14, 1989, the MPs had to
travel to TAEF in KSA and agree non an end of the Lebanese wars based on a
political reform (mainly a parliamentarian regime replacing the
semi-presidential one) and the dismantling of all militias in Lebanon (15 years
prior to UNSC Resolution 1559, refer to later). The text of the TAEF agreement
concluded on November 1989 says under Chapter G:
Quote..
……. Considering that all Lebanese factions have agreed to the establishment of a
strong state founded on the basis of national accord, the national accord
government shall draft a detailed one-year plan whose objective is to spread the
sovereignty of the State of Lebanon over all Lebanese territories gradually with
the state's own forces. The broad lines of the plan shall be as follows:
A. Disbanding of all Lebanese and non-Lebanese militias shall be announced. The
militias' weapons shall be delivered to the State of Lebanon within a period of
6 months, beginning with the approval of the national accord charter. The
president of the republic shall be elected. A national accord cabinet shall be
formed, and the political reforms shall be approved constitutionally.
B. The internal security forces shall be strengthened through:
1. Opening the door of voluntarism to all the Lebanese without exception,
beginning the training of volunteers centrally, distributing the volunteers to
the units in the governorates, and subjecting them to organized periodic
training courses.
2. Strengthening the security agency to insure control over the entry and
departure of individuals into and out of the country by land, air, and sea.
C. Strengthening the armed forces:
1. The fundamental task of the armed forces is to defend the homeland, and if
necessary, protect public order when the danger exceeds the capability of the
internal security forces to deal with such a danger on their own.
2. The armed forces shall be used to support the internal security forces in
preserving security under conditions determined by the cabinet.
3. The armed forces shall be unified, prepared, and trained in order that they
may be able to shoulder their national responsibilities in confronting Israeli
aggression.
4. When the internal security forces become ready to assume their security
tasks, the armed forces shall return to their barracks.
5. The armed forces intelligence shall be reorganized to serve military
objectives exclusively.
This part of the agreement similarly to other parts (decentralization, Senate,
withdrawal of the Syrian Army and abolishment of sectarianism in politics) were
not implemented.
Moreover, HZB remained the only non-governmental armed militia standing in
Lebanon and took over South Lebanon, prohibiting the Lebanese Army to spread
State sovereignty in South Lebanon and eventually reaching an agreement for the
withdrawal of Tsahal from Lebanon.
UNSC RESOLUTION 1559
In 2004, the UNSC under the instigation of the French (Chirac) have succeeded in
voting UNSC Resolution 1559 which can be summarized by:
Quote
The Security Council………
Reiterating its strong support for the territorial integrity, sovereignty and
political independence of Lebanon within its internationally recognized borders,
Noting the determination of Lebanon to ensure the withdrawal of all non-
Lebanese forces from Lebanon,
Gravely concerned at the continued presence of armed militias in Lebanon, which
prevent the Lebanese Government from exercising its full sovereignty over all
Lebanese territory,
Reaffirming the importance of the extension of the control of the Government of
Lebanon over all Lebanese territory,
Mindful of the upcoming Lebanese presidential elections and underlining the
importance of free and fair elections according to Lebanese constitutional rules
devised without foreign interference or influence,
1. Reaffirms its call for the strict respect of the sovereignty, territorial
integrity, unity, and political independence of Lebanon under the sole and
exclusive authority of the Government of Lebanon throughout Lebanon;
2. Calls upon all remaining foreign forces to withdraw from Lebanon;
3. Calls for the disbanding and disarmament of all Lebanese and non- Lebanese
militias (as stipulated in Taef).
4. Supports the extension of the control of the Government of Lebanon over all
Lebanese territory;
……….
Unquote
This UNSC Resolution was fiercely opposed by Assad and HZB and did lead the
latter to take definitive measures by assassinating Rafik Hariri (a close friend
of Jacques Chirac), considered by Assad/HZB as the man behind the French writing
and passing of this resolution. Even Jumblat and Berri, the main enemies of May
17 accord, HAVE publicly denounced the 1559. Evidently if Lebanon did implement
the 1559, we would have known prosperity and stability and peace instead of the
past 20 years of destructions and financial meltdown.
So, Lebanon breached the Armistice Agreement of 1949, did not ratify the 17 May
accord in 1983, did not respect the terms of the Taef agreement when it came to
the dissolution of all militias (including HZB) and fustigated the UNSC
Resolution 1559. All our problems derive from our inability to respect
international law, UNSC resolutions, and agreements concluded between Lebanese.
The ‘best” being yet to come.
2006 WAR AND UNSC RESOLUTIONS 1680 & 1701
On 2006 the UNSC Resolution 1680 was passed on May 17, 2006 (15 months following
the assassination of Rafiq Hariri by HZB and 13 months following the withdrawal
of the Syrian Army from Lebanon). The main decisions pertaining to this
resolution being:
Quote
……….
1. Welcomes the third semi-annual report of the Secretary General to the
Security Council of 18 April 2006 on the implementation of resolution 1559
(2004) (S/2006/248);
2. Reiterates its call for the full implementation of all requirements of
resolution 1559 (2004);
3. Reiterates also its call on all concerned States and parties as mentioned in
the report, to cooperate fully with the Government of Lebanon, the Security
Council and the Secretary-General to achieve this goal;
4. Strongly encourages the Government of Syria to respond positively to the
request made by the Government of Lebanon, in line with the agreements of the
Lebanese national dialogue, to delineate their common border, especially in
those areas where the border is uncertain or disputed and to establish full
diplomatic relations and representation, noting that such measures would
constitute a significant step towards asserting Lebanon’s sovereignty,
territorial integrity and political independence and improving the relations
between the two countries, thus contributing positively to the stability in the
region, and urges both parties to make efforts through further bilateral
dialogue to this end, bearing in mind that the establishment of diplomatic
relations between States, and of permanent diplomatic missions, takes place by
mutual consent;
5. Commends the Government of Lebanon for undertaking measures against movements
of arms into Lebanese territory and calls on the Government of Syria to take
similar measures;
6. Welcomes the decision of the Lebanese national dialogue to disarm Palestinian
militias outside refugee camps within six months, supports its implementation
and calls for further efforts to disband and disarm all Lebanese and
non-Lebanese militias and to restore fully the Lebanese Government’s control
over all Lebanese territory;
7. Reiterates its support to the Secretary-General and his Special envoy in
their efforts and dedication to facilitate and assist in the implementation of
all provisions of resolution 1559 (2004);
………..
Unquote
17 months after the assassination of Rafiq Hariri by HZB and 76 months after the
uncoordinated (with the Lebanese Army) withdrawal of Israeli troops from Lebanon
behind the blue line (UN defined border), HZB crossed that blue line on July 12,
2006, killed two Israeli soldiers and abducted their cadavers and took those
back to Lebanon. Lebanon endured 34 days of hell after this operation during
which the country and its infrastructure were bombarded by Israel. HZB begged
for mercy and Fouad Siniora government negotiated a UNSC resolution to end the
country’s destruction. UNSC resolution was passed on August 11, 2006, 30 days
following HZB attack. The ceasefire part was implemented on August 15, 2006.
Main decision of 1701
Quote
…. 1. Calls for a full cessation of hostilities based upon, in particular, the
immediate cessation by Hizbollah of all attacks and the immediate cessation by
Israel of all offensive military operations;
2. Upon full cessation of hostilities, calls upon the Government of Lebanon and
UNIFIL as authorized by paragraph 11 to deploy their forces together throughout
the South and calls upon the Government of Israel, as that deployment begins, to
withdraw all of its forces from southern Lebanon in parallel;
3. Emphasizes the importance of the extension of the control of the Government
of Lebanon over all Lebanese territory in accordance with the provisions of
resolution 1559 (2004) and resolution 1680 (2006), and of the relevant
provisions of the Taif Accords, for it to exercise its full sovereignty, so that
there will be no weapons without the consent of the Government of Lebanon and no
authority other than that of the Government of Lebanon;
4. Reiterates its strong support for full respect for the Blue Line;
5. Also reiterates its strong support, as recalled in all its previous relevant
resolutions, for the territorial integrity, sovereignty and political
independence of Lebanon within its internationally recognized borders, as
contemplated by the Israeli-Lebanese General Armistice Agreement of 23 March
1949;
6. Calls on the international community to take immediate steps to extend its
financial and humanitarian assistance to the Lebanese people, including through
facilitating the safe return of displaced persons and, under the authority of
the Government of Lebanon, reopening airports and harbours, consistent with
paragraphs 14 and 15, and calls on it also to consider further assistance in the
future to contribute to the reconstruction and development of Lebanon;
7. Affirms that all parties are responsible for ensuring that no action is taken
contrary to paragraph 1 that might adversely affect the search for a long-term
solution, humanitarian access to civilian populations, including safe passage
for humanitarian convoys, or the voluntary and safe return of displaced persons,
and calls on all parties to comply with this responsibility and to cooperate
with the Security Council;
8. Calls for Israel and Lebanon to support a permanent ceasefire and a long-
term solution based on the following principles and elements:
– full respect for the Blue Line by both parties;
– security arrangements to prevent the resumption of hostilities, including the
establishment between the Blue Line and the Litani river of an area free of any
armed personnel, assets and weapons other than those of the Government of
Lebanon and of UNIFIL as authorized in paragraph 11, deployed in this area;
· – full implementation of the relevant provisions of the Taif Accords, and of
resolutions 1559 (2004) and 1680 (2006), that require the disarmament of all
armed groups in Lebanon, so that, pursuant to the Lebanese cabinet decision of
27 July 2006, there will be no weapons or authority in Lebanon other than that
of the Lebanese State;
· – no foreign forces in Lebanon without the consent of its Government;
· – no sales or supply of arms and related materiel to Lebanon except as
authorized by its Government;
· – provision to the United Nations of all remaining maps of landmines in
Lebanon in Israel’s possession;
9. Invites the Secretary-General to support efforts to secure as soon as
possible agreements in principle from the Government of Lebanon and the
Government of Israel to the principles and elements for a long-term solution as
set forth in paragraph 8, and expresses its intention to be actively involved;
10. Requests the Secretary-General to develop, in liaison with relevant
international actors and the concerned parties, proposals to implement the
relevant provisions of the Taif Accords, and resolutions 1559 (2004) and 1680
(2006), including disarmament, and for delineation of the international borders
of Lebanon, especially in those areas where the border is disputed or uncertain,
including by dealing with the Shebaa farms area, and to present to the Security
Council those proposals within thirty days;
…….
Unquote
Evidently the successive Lebanese governments especially the ones following 2011
did not respect those terms and were compelled by HZB using the policy of the
carrot and the stick to allow the latter armed presence in the south of Litani;
not to mention the non-application of the UNSC Resolution 1559, 1680 and the
Taef agreement; not to mention the 1949 Armistice Agreement.
Once again Lebanon failed its international obligations, thus endangering its
sovereignty, people, stability and prosperity.
Obviously, no one challenges anymore the fact that HZB is nothing but an Iranian
Revolutionary Guard battalion securing for the IRI a land border with Israel and
serving as an IRI asset in its geopolitical agenda.
The UN did from time-to-time issue reports listing the various breaches of the
1701 and the non-application of 1559 and 1680.
GAZA AND LEBANON 2023/2024 WAR
The day after the launching by HAMAS (another Iranian proxy on the
Mediterranean) of its AL-AQSA flood raid into Israel, HZB without coordinating
or consulting with all other Lebanese, initiated a war of attrition from South
Lebanon, targeting Israeli troops in the Galilee. Israel responded in kind,
inflicting heavy losses on HZB forces. It became quickly clear that Israelis
enjoyed an overwhelming superiority mainly in the matters of intelligence and
technology. Despite all attempts deployed by the whole world to bring Nasrallah
(HZB’s general secretary) to dissociate Lebanon from Gaza and withdraw its
forces behind the Litani river and stop firing rockets on Israel, Nasrallah
refused doing so against the opinion of the greatest majority of Lebanese and
most importantly against….common sense. His ideological belonging (Wilayet el
Fakih), as always, prevailed over his inexistent national belonging.
The situation escalated subsequent to the killing of 11 Israeli Druze children
playing football in soccer field in the Golan. Those kids were killed by HZB
rockets. Israelis stepped up their game and assassinated Fouad Shuker, the
equivalent of the military chief of staff in HZB. Then came the insane pagers
and walkie talkie attacks, followed by the decapitation of HZB (killing of
Nasrallah, Safieddine and tens of others). Israel determined to secure its
northern border, and faced with HZB continuous firing on its territory,
initiated the systematic ground operation that consisted in dislodging and
neutralizing all HZB combatants from the border villages and towns (over 50),
blowing up the tunnels and infrastructure after collecting tons of weapons and
ammunition left behind and rendering those towns and villages unlivable.
Meanwhile and in parallel, Israel continues its systematic bombing of HZB
infrastructure all over the country and assassinating more of its secondary
leaders, relentlessly.
Najib Mikati heading a resigning custodian government and Nabih Berri the
speaker of the parliament who happen to be the only Shi’a leader enjoying
popular (Shi’a) support after the assassination of Nasrallah, looked for a way
out from this quagmire HZB placed Lebanon in. 1.2 million displaced, cataclysmic
destructions, thousands of deaths and injured and last but not least the
systematic cleansing of South Lebanon by Tsahal of HZB presence, led Mikati and
Berri to accept (on behalf of HZB as well) an American designed agreement
leading to a ceasefire and later to permanent stability. This agreement,
ironically, is a mixture of all treaties and UNSC resolutions and agreements,
Lebanese had failed implementing. However, this time, an enforcing committee led
by the US and composed of French and Brits + granting Israel the alternative of
directly intervening wherever and whenever deemed necessary, thus preventing the
re-rise of HZB military outfit, should be able to enforce on Lebanese what they
should have done by themselves during a period stretching for 76 years.
Will finally the covenants of the Armistice agreement, Taef, 1559, 1680 and the
1701 be properly and diligently implemented? That remains the question.
SYNTHESIS
The Levant and Egypt have experienced 2 devastating ideologies: (a) Arab
Nationalism in the 50’, 60’ and 70’ and since 1979 (b) Political Jihadist Islam.
Arab nationalism has died with Nasser, Saddam and the decomposition of the Assad
regime, while Political Jihadist Islam lost ground with the defeat of El-Qaeda,
Daesh and now HAMAS and HZB. Hopefully, pragmatism will spread and prevail in
the Levant in general and in Lebanon in particular similarly to the one
prevailing in Jordan, Egypt and in the Guld countries..
Lebanon’s stability a hostage to negotiations
Eyad Abu Shakra/Asharq Al-Awsat/November 26, 2024
No one disagrees that stability, as the Lebanese understand it and desire, is
not a priority for Israel. This has been repeatedly demonstrated in the past and
it is evident today.
Worse still, the only “stability” the Israeli leadership wants for Lebanon is
total submission to Benjamin Netanyahu’s criteria of “coexistence” and “good
neighborliness.” And the criteria of the US, which has a monopoly on mediating
so-called peace in the Middle East, are not very different.
The latest American veto on Gaza in the UN Security Council — the first since
the US presidential election — has left no room for doubt that Washington agrees
with the Likud leadership on what constitutes Israel’s right to self-defense,
even if this alleged defense entails committing atrocities, displacing millions,
changing international maps and destroying the final shreds of confidence in
regional coexistence.
Of course, the tragic series of events in Gaza continues, and it is more likely
to expand eastward to the West Bank rather than to end. The lip service paid to
peace by officials in Joe Biden’s administration changes nothing.
In Lebanon, it seems that we will see a repeat of the Gaza scenario, despite the
efforts of US envoy Amos Hochstein, who, like some Lebanese politicians, is
playing a waiting game as facts are created on the ground that are impossible to
ignore and difficult to accept.
While confusion prevails in our Arab world amid a long array of divergent
concerns, the last few weeks of the US president’s term, I believe, could be the
most perilous for our region.
In Lebanon, it seems that we will see a repeat of the Gaza scenario, despite the
efforts of US envoy Amos Hochstein.
Amid this confusion, helplessness and tragedy, we hope today for a miracle
following the transition in Washington, which will replace a Democratic Party
that has failed to achieve anything significant in the region with a Republican
leadership whose will and ability to adopt serious and constructive approaches
to these issues are doubted by many.
Many of us, as observers and as Americans of Middle Eastern descent who are
concerned with regional affairs, have argued that it is very logical to “punish”
the Democrats for colluding with Israel’s Likud in the Gaza disaster. On the
other hand, others claimed that we were not in a position to inflict that
punishment and that we ought to minimize losses, especially since the only real
alternative to the Democratic administration (whose approach is rooted in Barack
Obama’s questionable selective idealism) is a Republican leadership that shapes
policies to personal whims and interests, disregarding institutional guardrails
and accountability.
The reality is that, while the Israeli lobby was reaping the fruits of decades
of “smart and patient investment” to ensure the loyalty of powerful figures,
wealthy groups, media conglomerates and companies with political influence,
Arabs and Muslims found themselves on the sidelines in the final moments, as
usual faced with three options.
The first option was to support Republican candidate and former President Donald
Trump, and there were a variety of personal and other reasons people chose to do
so. Indeed, among those who voted for Trump, some had convinced themselves that
no administration could be more hostile to Arabs than the Biden administration
and, before it, the Obama administration.
The second option was to grudgingly bite their lip and vote for Democratic
candidate and Vice President Kamala Harris, considering her the lesser of two
evils because she is less hostile to immigrant communities and more tolerant of
minorities. However, those who made this choice also acknowledged the Democratic
administration’s weak, hostile and inhumane policies since the Al-Aqsa Flood
Operation.
The incoming administration has much higher priorities that take precedence over
fleeting promises made during the campaign.
The third option was that of the naive, who voted for a third-party option to
take a stand against the two major parties, which were seen as competing to
curry favor with the Israeli lobby. Most of those who chose this option voted
for the leftist Green Party candidate Jill Stein, thus burning bridges with both
parties for nothing and losing whatever sympathy they had enjoyed among members
of the two main parties.
Here, there is a need for candor. The Israeli lobby has one goal and there is no
opposing lobby. Instead, we have scattered groups with different goals and
agendas that share nothing but roots in the Arab world or the Islamic world. As
a result, as in our own countries, there is no unified Arab project in America.
With regard to Lebanon in particular, Lebanese divisions also reflect in the
corridors of power in the US. If some Lebanese are now very enthusiastic about
the rise of Massad Boulos (the father-in-law of Trump’s youngest daughter), whom
they expect to work wonders and “save Lebanon,” they should realize that the
incoming administration has much higher priorities that take precedence over
fleeting promises made during the election campaign.
If the “unity of the fronts” that Hezbollah adopted of its own accord has shaken
national unity and undermined domestic stability, then the enthusiasm of some
Lebanese for the new Trump administration — which they hope will help them
settle the scores internally — will also pose a serious threat to the country’s
fragile national unity.
I say this for two reasons. The first is Netanyahu’s perpetuation, through his
scorched-earth policy, of internal displacement that stirs sectarian tensions
and fears. The second is Trump’s own claim that Israel is a “tiny little spot”
and his question of whether “there is any way of getting any more?” That is a
clear hint at altering maps and permanent occupation, which would not only
destroy the prospects for peace, but also undermine Washington’s credibility as
a fair and trusted mediator and sponsor.
**Eyad Abu Shakra is managing editor of Asharq Al-Awsat. X: @eyad1949
The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on November
26-27/2024
US
responds to attack on troops with strike in Syria
Brad Dress/The Hill/November 26/2024
U.S. forces on Tuesday struck Iranian-aligned militia groups in Syria in
retaliation for the fighters attacking American bases. U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM)
said in a post on the social platform X that it struck a weapons storage
facility and that a battle damage assessment was underway to determine the
impact of the strike. “We will not tolerate attacks on our personnel and
coalition partners,” said CENTCOM Commander Gen. Michael Kurilla in a statement.
“We are committed to taking all necessary actions to ensure their
protection.”CENTCOM said it does not currently assess that any civilian
casualties resulted from the strike. Iranian-backed groups have attacked U.S.
forces in Iraq and Syria dozens of times since the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas
war in October 2023 as Tehran seeks to support its Palestinian militant ally in
Gaza and take advantage of the chaos. And the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen
are also continuing to fire at merchant ships and battle the U.S. Navy in the
Red Sea. After the death of three American troops at a base in Jordan from an
attack by an Iranian-backed group over the winter, the U.S. carried out deadly
strikes on militia groups that largely eased up attacks in Syria and Iraq this
year. But those attacks have resumed in the past few months, and the U.S. also
carried out strikes earlier this month against Iranian groups in Syria. The U.S.
has some 900 troops in Syria and around 2,500 in Iraq. American troops are in
the countries to fight against the threat from Islamic terrorist group ISIS. The
Tuesday strike comes on the same day that Israel reached a ceasefire agreement
in Lebanon to stop the fighting against the Iranian-backed Hezbollah militant
group.
3 dead in Israel strikes on
Syria border crossings with Lebanon: monitor, authorities
AFP/November 27, 2024
BEIRUT, Lebanon: A Syria war monitor said Israeli strikes on the Lebanon-Syria
border late Tuesday killed two soldiers as Lebanon also reported one dead, the
latest frontier raids amid news of a Hezbollah and Israel truce. “Israeli
warplanes targeted the Al-Arida crossing in Tartus province for the first time,
and the Dabussiyeh and Jussiyeh crossings in Homs province,” said the Syrian
Observatory for Human Rights, reporting “two regime forces killed” at Dabussiyeh.
Lebanon’s health ministry said an “Israeli enemy strike” on the Al-Arida
crossing killed “one person,” adding that the toll was provisional. The
Britain-based Observatory, which relies on a network of sources inside Syria,
also reported other strikes on unofficial crossings and bridges between the two
countries. State news agency SANA reported “Israeli aggression that targeted the
Al-Arida and Dabussiyeh border crossings with Lebanon,” without reporting
casualties. On Monday, Israel also struck a crossing on the Syria-Lebanon
border, the latest in a wave of attacks targeting such routes since September.
Syrian state television reported Israeli strikes on several bridges in the
Qusayr region near the border. Israel’s military said strikes that day targeted
“smuggling routes to transfer weapons” to Hezbollah, and followed other
operations against “Syrian regime smuggling routes” in recent weeks. Israel
intensified its strikes against Syria from September 26, days after launching an
intense bombing campaign mainly targeting Hezbollah strongholds in Lebanon,
after almost a year of clashes with the group across the Lebanon border. Since
Syria’s war broke out in 2011, Israel has carried out hundreds of strikes in
Syria, mainly targeting the army and groups including Hezbollah.
Israeli strike kills at least 22 at school sheltering displaced in Gaza City,
medics say
AFP/November 26, 2024
GAZA CITY: Palestinian civil defense agency in Gaza said Tuesday that 22 people
were killed in Israeli air strikes and shelling of the Palestinian territory,
including 11 killed by a strike on a school-turned-shelter for displaced
civilians. “At least 11 Palestinians were killed and more than 40 injured in an
Israeli air strike that targeted Al-Hurriya School, which houses thousands of
displaced people," the medics said. Israeli forces said it struck “Hamas...
command and control center in Gaza City,” adding that it “was embedded inside a
compound that previously served as the ‘Al-Hurriya’ School." Palestinian armed
group Hamas described the Israeli strike as a “new crime.”Earlier on Tuesday,
the civil defense said 11 people were killed in overnight Israeli air strikes
and shelling. In the northern city of Jabalia, seven Palestinians were killed
and several wounded in an air strike on a residential building, civil defense
spokesman Mahmud Bassal told AFP.Another person was killed in a strike on a
house in nearby Beit Lahia, which along with Jabalia has been the focus of a
major Israeli military operation since October 6. Two people were killed in
shelling of Nuseirat camp in central Gaza, Bassal said.
In the southern city of Rafah, an air strike killed one person and wounded
several, he added. The Gaza war began with Hamas’s cross-border attack on Israel
on October 7 last year, which resulted in the deaths of 1,207 people, most of
them civilians, according to an AFP tally of Israeli official figures.
The figure was updated after an Israeli soldier wounded in the attacks died from
his injuries on Tuesday. Israel’s retaliatory campaign has killed 44,249 people
in Gaza, nearly 70 percent of them are women and children, according to figures
from the Palestinian health ministry in the enclave that the United Nations
considers reliable.
Israeli NGO warns of “quiet annexation” of West Bank under cover of war
Jonathan Gornall/Arab News/November 26, 2024
LONDON: On Oct. 12 last year, a group of armed settlers and Israeli soldiers
drove into the West Bank village of Wadi Al-Seeq, 10 kilometers east of the
Palestinian city of Ramallah. There, they seized and handcuffed three
Palestinian men, subjecting them to hours of abuse and violence, later compared
by one of the victims to the treatment meted out by rogue US soldiers to
prisoners at Abu Ghraib prison in Iraq in 2003. The abuses in Wadi Al-Seeq were
led by members of the IDF’s Sfar Hamidbar (Desert Frontier) unit, notorious for
recruiting into its ranks violent “hilltop youth” from the illegal farming
settlements that are proliferating in the West Bank with the blessing of
Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition government, which includes, and is dependent on
the support of, far-right parties. “For hours,” as an Israeli newspaper reported
on Oct. 21, 2023, the Palestinians “were severely beaten, stripped to their
underwear, and photographed handcuffed. “Their captors urinated on two of them
and extinguished burning cigarettes on them. There was even an attempt to
penetrate one of them with an object.” Palestinians bound and stripped after
being apprehended by IDF soldiers and settlers in the central West Bank village
of Wadi Al-Seeq on October 12, 2023. (The Times of Israel) Israeli human rights
activists who arrived at the scene were also arrested, cuffed, beaten,
threatened with death and, like the Palestinians, robbed. At the time, many in
Israel were shocked to read the reports of the joint operation between the IDF
and settlers, exposed by the left-wing Israeli newspaper Haaretz. But as a new
report from an Israeli human rights group makes clear, such events have become
commonplace as, under cover of the wars in Gaza and Lebanon, the Israeli
government and its agencies have been pursuing the ultimate goal of “realizing
the vision of full Israeli sovereignty in the occupied territory.”In the report,
“One year of war: the collapse of human and civil rights in Israel and the West
Bank,” the Association for Civil Rights in Israel (ACRI) accuses the government
of “excessive, unrestrained, and illegal use of force.”
Furthermore, it says, Netanyahu’s government is “demolishing the judicial system
and the civil service with the aim of accumulating unlimited power; increasing
the use of force in the West Bank and granting tacit permission for unrestrained
settler violence; using force to limit freedom of expression and protest; and
systematically violating the rights of detainees and prisoners.”The list of
charges levelled against the government is long, including institutionalized
discrimination against Arab society, “unprecedented” infringement of the rights
of suspects and prisoners, the “mass armament and creation of untrained forces”
of settlers, the “destruction of democratic foundations,” attacks on freedom of
expression and “normalization of citizen surveillance and disregard for
privacy.”Legislative steps are being taken with the aim of excluding certain
parties from running for the Knesset, Israel’s parliament. Last month a
controversial bill was passed to change the rules for banning individuals or
parties from membership of the Knesset if they have “supported terror,” a
definition which now includes visiting the family of someone accused of an act
of terrorism. Likud, Netanyahu’s party, has even accused Arab members of the
Knesset of supporting terror simply on the ground of their support for
Palestinian statehood. “Depriving a population of the right to protest
politically and the right to political representation” is “a very slippery
slope,” said Noa Sattath, the CEO of ACRI.
“When there’s no political representation of a minority, then there's a
radicalization of that minority.”
IN NUMBERS
733 Palestinians killed in the West Bank since Oct. 7, 2023.
40 Israelis killed during the same period.
3,340 Palestinians in administrative detention as of last June.
11,800 Palestinians arrested since current conflict erupted.
What the ACRI report exposes on a grand scale, says Sattath, is “the excessive
use of power. Of course, we see it in Gaza, and in Lebanon now, but we also see
it in the West Bank.“We also see it being used against Israeli protesters. We’re
also seeing it in the treatment of prisoners. In all walks of life, basically,
the Israeli government has moved to using excessive power against the different
players, rather than making more complicated decisions.”The headline scandal of
the past year is what ACRI describes as “the quiet coup” in the West Bank. “With
public attention focused elsewhere,” says the report, “the government is
implementing profound changes to all aspects of control in the West Bank, most
of which are flying under the radar. “In the last two years, the government has
made giant strides in advancing policies aimed at accelerating the annexation
process of the West Bank, while establishing Jewish supremacy and marginalizing
the Palestinian population, all in pursuit of realizing the vision of full
Israeli sovereignty in the occupied territory.”The annexation of the West Bank
has long been on the agenda, said Sattath, “but the war has given cover and
enabled this to happen. “Basically, they’re creating a new reality on the
ground, behind the scenes, without a lot of public scrutiny, without a lot of
international discourse on this new reality that they’re manufacturing.” The
Israeli government has, in certain instances, issued statements that aim to
distance itself from the violent actions of settlers in the West Bank. Netanyahu
has occasionally called for calm and condemned settler attacks on Palestinians,
especially after high-profile incidents. However, ACRI fears that under the
incoming US administration of Donald Trump, whose election has been welcomed so
enthusiastically by far-right members of Netanyahu’s cabinet, things are only
going to get worse.“I think that the next years are going to be very difficult,”
said Sattath.
“The US government is one of the only checks and balances on the behavior of the
Israeli government behavior and, even if we would have liked them to be more
forceful in the way that they do it, we're very worried that the disappearance
of that will have grave implications for the lives of Palestinians, both in
Gaza, where the US is currently so involved in the humanitarian aid efforts
there, and in the West Bank.”Disturbingly, she says, Israel is manoeuvring
behind the scenes to end the status of the West Bank as an occupied territory
under military occupation, which is how it has been defined by international law
since the occupation of the West Bank by Israel in 1967. “It seems a little
strange that an organization like ACRI would be advocating for military
occupation,” she said. “But under international conventions military occupation
gives the protected citizens of that area many different rights and gives the
occupiers obligations. “Residents in occupied territories cannot be moved. You
cannot build on their territory and the occupying force has all sorts of
obligations toward them, in terms of humanitarian aid. “Now, what the
settler movement, through its ministers in the government, is trying to do is
erase the military occupation, replacing it with government agencies and
officials to facilitate the settlement enterprise.” The process began in
February 2023 when, despite disquiet among some members of Netanyahu’s
government, authority over many civilian issues in the West Bank was stripped
from Defense Ministry agency COGAT (Coordinator of Government Activities in the
Territories) and transferred to Bezalel Smotrich, the religious Zionism leader
and finance minister. According to a Times of Israel report, the agreement
“appears to give the ultranationalist leader sweeping powers over the territory,
and allows him to advance his goal of thwarting Palestinian aspirations for a
state in the West Bank by enabling the Israeli population there to substantially
expand.”Anti-settlement organizations denounced the agreement, with one,
Breaking the Silence, saying it amounted to “legal, de jure annexation,” of the
West Bank. The importance of ACRI’s report, says Sattath, lies in the sheer
breadth of abuses by the Israeli government it exposes. ACRI, founded in 1972
and the oldest civil and human rights organization in Israel, has been
publishing reports on the state of human rights in Israel and the West Bank for
decades. But, she says, “we have never published a report showing such a severe
and comprehensive deterioration as we have seen over the past year.”ACRI says it
hopes its report “will deepen the public’s understanding of the damage being
done to human rights and democratic institutions, and that it will stir the
public to action and resistance.” It added: “Monitoring human rights violation
processes is also critical for there to be any hope of correction under a
different government and reality.”
They have forgotten us, say
Gazans on possibility of Lebanon truce
Reuters/November 26, 2024
"Today there is talk to end the war in Lebanon. Of course, firstly, may God
bless the families of our brothers in Lebanon and help them and protect them.
But today, as people in Gaza, or me as a citizen in Gaza, amongst others, also
hope for official negotiations to end the war in Gaza. Because today our people
are living in famine. Children today are in the streets begging (for food)
because they can't find anything to eat.”"We would like the war to end just like
in Lebanon, because the war started together here and in Lebanon. All (focus) is
on Lebanon, the ceasefire in Lebanon and they have forgotten us. Just like them
we would like to live. We wish to live an decent life; we don't ask for more.
Stop the war and that's it, this is the least we ask for. We want nothing
more."The Iran-backed Hezbollah began firing missiles at Israel in solidarity
with Hamas after the Palestinian militant group attacked Israel in October of
2023, triggering the Gaza war. Hostilities in Lebanon have drastically escalated
in the last two months, with Israel stepping up airstrikes and sending in ground
forces to Lebanon's south and Hezbollah sustaining rocket fire on Israel. Now
Israel looks set to approve a U.S. plan for a ceasefire with Hezbollah when its
security cabinet meets on Tuesday, while Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou
Habib expressed hope that a ceasefire would be reached by Tuesday night. While
diplomacy focuses on Lebanon, Palestinians felt let down by the world after 14
months of conflict which has devastated the Gaza Strip and killed more than
44,000 people. An Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire without a deal for Gaza would be a
blow to Hamas, whose leaders had hoped the expansion of the war into Lebanon
would pressure Israel to reach a comprehensive ceasefire. Hezbollah had insisted
that it would not agree to a ceasefire until the war in Gaza ends, but it
dropped that condition.
KKL-JNF is working to support and
assist the Druze community
Since the outbreak of the war, Keren
Kayemeth LeIsrael (KKL-JNF) has been working on behalf of the Druze community to
provide assistance to families that have been affected by the war in Israel’s
North.
Jerusalem Post Staff
Since the outbreak of the war on October 7, Keren Kayemeth LeIsrael-Jewish
National Fund (KKL-JNF) has been working to support the Druze community, which
has suffered significant losses during the intense fighting over the past year.
KKL-JNF is actively involved in aiding families in need.
The covenant between the State of Israel and the Druze community is built on a
long-standing partnership, forged through shared service in the Israel Defense
Forces (IDF) and deep mutual loyalty. This bond has been particularly evident
during the Swords of Iron War, in which the courage of Druze fighters serving in
the IDF and other security forces once again shone through. One of the most
tragic events during the northern conflict was the death of 12 boys and girls,
killed by a Hezbollah rocket strike on a playground in the Druze town of Majdal
Shams.
Ifat Ovadia-Luski, Chairperson of KKL-JNF, at the tree-planting ceremony that
was held in the Ahihud Forest. (Credit: Guy Assayag / KKL-JNF)
Over the years, KKL-JNF has deepened its ties with the Druze community. In light
of the recent war and the economic challenges facing the country, this
collaboration has become more vital than ever in repairing what has been
destroyed and supporting affected families. Beyond immediate aid, KK-JNF also
strives to honor the memory of fallen members of the Druze community. This
includes educational initiatives in both formal and informal institutions and
the establishment of the Druze Sons Trail, a 250-kilometer hiking path
connecting Druze villages in the Carmel and Galilee regions.
Recently, KKL-JNF held a tree-planting ceremony at the Ahihud Forest, at the
Sheikh Amin Tarif Memorial Site, honoring Druze fighters who gave their lives in
the Swords of Iron War. Additionally, a shaded picnic area was inaugurated to
benefit visitors and residents of Majdal Shams, the town that suffered the
harshest blow.
"The Druze community has been walking hand in hand with KKL-JNF for years. Our
connection is deep and significant, encompassing a variety of fields and topics.
It is essential to strengthen this important relationship," said Ifat
Ovadia-Luski, Chairperson of KKL-JNF.
HELP US REBUILD TOGETHER
The Druze community has welcomed KKL-JNF’s commemorative initiatives. At the
tree-planting ceremony that was held in the Ahihud Forest, the spiritual leader
of the Druze community, Sheikh Mowafaq Tarif, stated: "The journey of
bereavement of the Druze community since the outbreak of the war is the journey
of bereavement for the entire nation. Yet, thanks to this journey, we can
maintain normalcy in the country. KKL-JNF’s initiative is moving and carries a
significant message—to plant trees in memory of the fallen, here in the soil of
the Galilee, where the Druze community’s roots have been deeply planted for
nearly a thousand years."
Imad Habaka, father of Lieutenant Colonel Salman Habaka from Kefar Yanuh,
commander of the 53rd Battalion in the Barak Brigade, who fell in battle in the
northern Gaza Strip, shared: "Our sons sacrificed themselves for the security of
the country. For us Druze as well, this is our country, and it is our duty to
preserve and defend it. KKL-JNF’s commitment to commemoration is deeply moving,
providing a place for us to honor our sons."
In these times of crisis, every contribution counts. Join KKL-JNF in the
critical mission to safeguard the land of Israel and its people from the
devastating effects of the Swords of Iron War. Click here to donate.
*This article was written in cooperation with KKL-JNF
Ukrainian delegation visiting Seoul to ask for weapons aid, media reports say
Reuters/November 27, 2024
SEOUL: A Ukrainian delegation led by Defense Minister Rustem Umerov is visiting
South Korea this week to ask for weapons aid to be used by Kyiv in its war with
Russia, according to media reports. The delegation had met with South Korea’s
National Security Adviser Shin Won-sik to exchange views on the conflict in
Ukraine, the DongA Ilbo newspaper reported on Wednesday, without giving a
source. In an interview with South Korean broadcaster KBS in October, Ukraine’s
President Volodymyr Zelensky said Kyiv would send a detailed request to Seoul
for arms support including artillery and an air defense systems. The South China
Morning Post also reported this week that a Ukrainian delegation was due to
visit South Korea to request weapons aid, citing an informed source. The group
was expected to meet their South Korean counterparts as early as Wednesday,
according to the report. A spokesperson for South Korea’s defense ministry
declined to confirm when asked whether a Ukrainian delegation had arrived in
Seoul during a regular media briefing on Tuesday. Seoul, which has emerged as a
leading arms producer, has been under pressure from some Western countries and
Kyiv to provide Ukraine with lethal weapons but has so far focused on non-lethal
aid including demining equipment. South Korea’s Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul,
asked earlier this month whether Seoul would send weapons to Ukraine in response
to North Korea aiding Russia, said all possible scenarios were under
consideration and Seoul would be watching the level of participation by North
Korean troops in Russia and what Pyongyang received from Moscow in return.
US appeals court grants dismissal of Trump documents case
AFP/November 27, 2024
WASHINGTON: An appeals court on Tuesday granted a request by prosecutors to drop
the case against US President-elect Donald Trump for mishandling classified
documents. Special Counsel Jack Smith had asked the court on Monday to dismiss
the case because of a long-standing Justice Department policy of not prosecuting
a sitting president. A Trump-appointed district court judge in Florida threw out
the documents case earlier this year, but Smith had appealed the ruling to the
11th Circuit Court of Appeals. The appeals court granted Smith’s request to
dismiss the case without comment. Smith is continuing, however, to pursue the
case against Trump’s two co-defendants, his valet, Walt Nauta, and Mar-a-Lago
property manager Carlos De Oliveira. Trump, 78, was accused of removing large
quantities of top secret documents after leaving the White House at the end of
his first term and obstructing efforts to retrieve them. The former president
was also accused by the special counsel of conspiring to overturn the results of
the 2020 election won by Joe Biden. A judge on Monday granted a request by Smith
to drop that case. The special counsel paused both federal cases this month
after Trump defeated Vice President Kamala Harris in the November 5 presidential
election. The former and incoming president also faces two state cases — in New
York and Georgia. He was convicted in New York in May of 34 counts of falsifying
business records to cover up a hush money payment to porn star Stormy Daniels on
the eve of the 2016 election to stop her from revealing an alleged 2006 sexual
encounter. Judge Juan Merchan has postponed sentencing while he considers a
request from Trump’s lawyers that the conviction be thrown out in light of the
Supreme Court ruling in July that an ex-president has broad immunity from
prosecution. In Georgia, Trump faces racketeering charges over his efforts to
subvert the 2020 election results in the southern state, but that case will
likely be frozen while he is in office.
Trump’s threat to impose tariffs could raise prices for consumers, colliding
with promise for relief
AP/November 27, 2024
DETROIT: If Donald Trump makes good on his threat to slap 25 percent tariffs on
everything imported from Mexico and Canada, the price increases that could
follow will collide with his campaign promise to give American families a break
from inflation. Economists say companies would have little choice but to pass
along the added costs, dramatically raising prices for food, clothing,
automobiles, booze and other goods. The president-elect floated the tariff idea,
including additional 10 percent taxes on goods from China, as a way to force the
countries to halt the flow of illegal immigrants and drugs into the US But his
posts Monday on Truth Social threatening the tariffs on his first day in office
could just be a negotiating ploy to get the countries to change behavior. High
food prices were a major issue in voters picking Trump over Vice President
Kamala Harris, but tariffs almost certainly would push those costs up even
further.For instance, the Produce Distributors Association, a Washington trade
group, said Tuesday that tariffs will raise prices for fresh fruit and
vegetables and hurt US farmers when other countries retaliate. “Tariffs distort
the marketplace and will raise prices along the supply chain, resulting in the
consumer paying more at the checkout line,” said Alan Siger, association
president. Mexico and Canada are two of the biggest exporters of fresh fruit and
vegetables to the US In 2022, Mexico supplied 51 percent of fresh fruit and 69
percent of fresh vegetables imported by value into the US, while Canada supplied
2 percent of fresh fruit and 20 percent of fresh vegetables.Before the election,
about 7 in 10 voters said they were very concerned about the cost of food,
according to AP VoteCast, a survey of more than 120,000 voters. “We’ll get them
down,” Trump told shoppers during a September visit to a Pennsylvania grocery
store. The US is the largest importer of goods in the world, with Mexico, China
and Canada its top three suppliers, according to the most recent US Census data.
People looking to buy a new vehicle likely would see big price increases as
well, at a time when costs have gone up so much they are out of reach for many.
The average price of a new vehicle now runs around $48,000. About 15 percent of
the 15.6 million new vehicles sold in the US last year came from Mexico, while 8
percent crossed the border from Canada, according to Global Data.
Much of the tariffs would get passed along to consumers, unless automakers can
somehow quickly find productivity improvements to offset them, said C.J. Finn,
US automotive sector leader for PwC. That means even more consumers “would
potentially get priced out,” Finn said.
Hardest hit would be Volkswagen, Stellantis, General Motors and Ford, Bernstein
analyst Daniel Roeska wrote Tuesday in a note to investors. “A 25 percent tariff
on Mexico and Canada would severely cripple the US auto industry,” he said. The
tariffs would hurt US industrial production so much that “we expect this is
unlikely to happen in practice,” Roeska said. The tariff threat hit auto stocks
on Tuesday, particularly shares of GM, which imports about 30 percent of the
vehicles it sells in the US from Canada and Mexico, and Stellantis, which
imports about 40 percent from the two countries. For both, about 55 percent of
their lucrative pickup trucks come from Mexico and Canada. GM stock lost almost
9 percent of its value, while Stellantis dropped nearly 6 percent. It’s not
clear how long the tariffs would last if implemented, but they could force auto
executives to move production to the US, which could create more jobs in the
long run. However, Morningstar analyst David Whiston said automakers probably
won’t make any immediate moves because they can’t quickly change where they
build vehicles. Millions of dollars worth of auto parts flow across the borders
with Mexico and Canada, and that could raise prices for already costly
automobile repairs, Finn said. The Distilled Spirits Council of the US said
tariffs on tequila or Canadian whisky won’t boost American jobs because they are
distinctive products that can only be made in their country of origin. In 2023,
the US imported $4.6 billion worth of tequila and $108 million worth of mezcal
from Mexico and $537 million worth of spirits from Canada, it said.
“Tariffs on spirits products from our neighbors to the north and south are going
to hurt US consumers and lead to job losses across the US hospitality industry,”
it added. Electronics retailer Best Buy said on its third-quarter earnings
conference call that it runs on thin profit margins, so while vendors and the
company will shoulder some increases, Best Buy will have to pass tariffs to
customers. “These are goods that people need, and higher prices are not
helpful,” CEO Corie Barry said.Walmart also warned last week that tariffs could
force it to raise prices. Tariffs could trigger supply chain disruptions as
people buy goods before they are imposed and companies seek alternate sources of
parts, said Rob Handfield, a professor of supply chain management at North
Carolina State University. Some businesses might not be able to pass on the
costs. “It could actually shut down a lot of industries in the United States. It
could actually put a lot of US businesses out of business,” he said. Canadian
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who talked with Trump after his call for tariffs,
said they had a good conversation about working together. “This is a
relationship that we know takes a certain amount of working on and that’s what
we’ll do,” Trudeau said. Trump’s threats come as arrests for illegally crossing
the border from Mexico have been falling. But arrests for illegally crossing the
border from Canada have been rising over the past two years. Much of America’s
fentanyl is smuggled from Mexico, and seizures have increased. Trump has sound
legal justification to impose tariffs, even though they conflict with a 2020
trade deal brokered in large part by Trump with Canada and Mexico, said William
Reinsch, senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies
and a former Clinton administration trade official. The treaty, known as the
USMCA, is up for review in 2026. In China’s case, he could simply declare
Beijing hasn’t met obligations under an agreement he negotiated in his first
term. For Canada and Mexico, he could say the influx of migrants and drugs are a
national security threat, and turn to a section of trade law he used in his
first term to slap tariffs on steel and aluminum. The law he would most likely
use for Canada and Mexico has a legal process that often takes up to nine
months, giving Trump time to seek a deal. If talks failed and the duties were
imposed, all three countries would likely retaliate with tariffs on US exports,
said Reinsch, who believes Trump’s tariffs threat is a negotiating ploy. US
companies would lobby intensively against tariffs, and would seek to have
products exempted. Some of the biggest exporters from Mexico are US firms that
make parts there, Reinsch said. Longer term, Mary Lovely, a senior fellow at the
Peterson Institute for International Economics, said the threat of tariffs could
make the US an “unstable partner” in international trade. “It is an incentive to
move activity outside the United States to avoid all this uncertainty,” she
said. Trump transition team officials did not immediately respond to questions
about what he would need to see to prevent the tariffs from being implemented
and how they would impact prices in the US. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum
suggested Tuesday that Mexico could retaliate with tariffs of its own. Sheinbaum
said she was willing to talk about the issues, but said drugs were a US problem.
The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources
on November
26-27/2024
Israel’s only option on
Iran is ending Khamenei’s regime
Jacob Nagel &Mark Dubowitz/Ynet News/November 26/2024
Supreme leader has set 2040 as target for final destruction of Israel,
necessitating a change in strategy that transitions from defensive to offensive
action using the IDF's intelligence and operational capabilities, U.S. support
and regional alliances.
There is a clock in Palestine Square in Tehran that counts down to 2040, the
year Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has identified as the end of the state of
Israel. And when Khamenei declares that his plan is to destroy the Israel by
then, you should believe that he intends to do everything in order to succeed in
this ambition, with the help of supporters inside and outside Iran. He should be
taken very seriously.
And if that is the Supreme Leader’s objective, Israel cannot afford to make do
with deterrence as its goal. The strategy must completely change and transition
from defense to an initiated attack. Israel’s mission must be to end Khamenei’s
regime long before 2030.
The Iranian regime is the primary sponsor of terrorism in the world, it
destabilizes the Middle East and aspires to have nuclear weapons. Tehran has
armed and guided terror groups like Hezbollah, Hamas and Islamic Jihad for
decades, to create a ring-of-fire around Israel.
Allowing Iran to continue to dictate the pace and force of the conflict is not a
recipe for victory. Survival is not the right strategy for Israel in the face of
the Iranian threat and a defensive posture could lead to inevitable weakening.
Israel must not continue to focus on surviving Khamenei’s threats. It must act
early to neutralize their source.
The recent military successes against Hezbollah and Hamas, and the destruction
of Iran’s central air defenses, proves that the IDF is able to overcome a such a
sophisticated adversary, using precise intelligence, advanced technology and
impressive aerial operations. This expertise can be aligned with a multi-faceted
strategy that is focused on Iran’s nuclear sites.
With the election of Donald Trump as president, a joint Israeli-American
operation is not inconceivable and would significantly increase the chances of
success, by combining Israel’s operational precision and technological systems
with American firepower and special forces, along with diplomatic cover.
Such initiated action, disruption of command systems and covert operation to
sabotage critical components of Iran’s nuclear program, could be the pillars of
this effort and a clear international message of support, critical for global
stability, could bolster their legitimacy.
Economic warfare remains one of the most powerful tools against Iran. Past
sanctions as part of the maximum pressure campaign shattered Iran’s income from
oil and limited its ability to fund its terror network. Israel must work with
the United States to reinstate and increase the sanctions and focus not only on
Iran’s nuclear program but also on the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)
– the main proponent of terrorism and oppression.
The diplomatic efforts must focus on strengthening existing alliances with the
Arab world, signing a peace agreement with Saudi Arabia and building new
coalitions. The Iranian aggression, especially supported by Russia, and the
continued threats towards American allies in the Gulf, created new opportunities
to forge coalitions against Iran. These must act not only to deter the Iranians
but mostly to weaken the regime and bring it to its end.
Israel’s intelligence and covert operational capabilities are an additional
pillar of this strategy. The disruption of Iran’s nuclear timeline, attacks on
its nuclear scientists and on the leadership of the IRGC, using Israel’s cyber
warfare must intensify and focus on critical weaknesses of the regime.
Finally, Israel must increase its support of the people of Iran, the main
victims of the brutal regime, by bolstering internal opposition forces through
communication platforms, arms and usable intelligence. This doctrine must rely
on creating protests that would accelerate the downfall of the regime.
Israel cannot wait passively for 2040 while Khamenei plots its destruction. If
his goal is to destroy Israel, It is the Israeli mission to bring his regime
down. Israel must unite all of the components that make up its technological and
operational power, along with the support of the new U.S. administration.
Survival is not enough. Victory is the only option and that means ensuring the
Khamenei regime would be a thing of the past, long before its destructive
timeline nears its deadline.
**Professor Jacob Nagel is a former National Security Advisor and a professor at
the Technion; Mark Dubowitz is the CEO of the Foundation for Defense of
Democracies and an expert on Iran’s nuclear program.
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/hjkotcwxyl
Taiwan: Ukraine's Survival Is Our Survival
Gordon G. Chang/Gatestone Institute/November 26, 2024
[T[he United States has an obligation to defend Ukraine — and it is definitely
in its interest to do so.
In the Budapest Memorandum, the three parties [the US, the UK and Russia] made
six pledges to the former Soviet republic, the most important of which was
"their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the CSCE
Final Act, to respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders
of Ukraine.""[W]hen negotiating the security assurances, U.S. officials told
their Ukrainian counterparts that, were Russia to violate them, the United
States would take a strong interest and respond." — Steven Pifer, former U.S.
ambassador to Ukraine.
If Russia keeps the territory it has seized — certainly if it grabs even more —
countries will believe that American promises to defend them are worthless and
will begin building a nuclear deterrent of their own.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, after all, will not stop there, just as he did
not stop after breaking apart Georgia in 2008 or after seizing Crimea in 2014.
"If Ukraine falls, Poland, the Baltic republics and other NATO member states
will face existential threats," Greg Scarlatoiu, president of the Committee for
Human Rights in North Korea, told this publication. Then, the U.S. and its NATO
partners will be even more stretched — and less able to defend Taiwan — than
they are now.
When Chinese leaders saw Washington's failure to act, they soon moved against
Second Thomas Shoal and other Philippine reefs in the South China Sea, went
after Japan's islets in the East China Sea, and started reclaiming and
militarizing features in the Spratly Island chain. Obama and Biden legitimized
the worst elements in the Chinese political system by showing everybody else
that aggression worked.
The best way to stop China from attacking Taiwan is to defeat its proxies,
especially Russia in Europe.
As Tsai Ing-wen, who stepped down as Taiwan's president in May, said on November
23, "A Ukrainian victory will serve as the most effective deterrence against
future aggression."
The best way to stop China from attacking Taiwan is to defeat Russia in Europe.
As Taiwan's former President Tsai Ing-wen said this month: "A Ukrainian victory
will serve as the most effective deterrence against future aggression."
"We should cut off U.S. military aid to Ukraine, until our European allies step
up," said U.S. Senator Josh Hawley in a February 2023 speech at the Heritage
Foundation. "That won't happen so long as we're doing their job for them."
Many, if not most, Americans would agree with the senator from Missouri, but is
he right?
Hawley's address was titled "China and Ukraine: A Time for Truth." The truth,
however, is that the United States has an obligation to defend Ukraine — and it
is definitely in its interest to do so.
Why? As an initial matter, America wants to stop the spread of nuclear weapons.
In December 1994, Ukraine agreed to give up those weapons, which it took
possession of upon the breakup of the Soviet Union. In return, Ukraine received
territorial guarantees from the United States, Great Britain, and Russia,
contained in the Memorandum on Security Assurances in Connection with Ukraine's
Accession to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. The
document is commonly known as the Budapest Memorandum.
In the Budapest Memorandum, the three parties made six pledges to the former
Soviet republic, the most important of which was "their commitment to Ukraine,
in accordance with the principles of the CSCE Final Act, to respect the
independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine."
"Some have argued that, since the United States did not invade Ukraine, it
abided by its Budapest Memorandum commitments," wrote Steven Pifer of the
Brookings Institution and former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, in 2019. "True, in
a narrow sense. However, when negotiating the security assurances, U.S.
officials told their Ukrainian counterparts that, were Russia to violate them,
the United States would take a strong interest and respond."
If Russia keeps the territory it has seized — certainly if it grabs even more —
countries will believe that American promises to defend them are worthless and
will begin building a nuclear deterrent of their own.
Apart from ignoring America's Budapest Memorandum obligations, the
let's-abandon-Ukraine crowd believes that the defense of Ukraine undermines the
ability of the U.S. to discharge a more important task: protecting Taiwan. The
argument is that American resources are finite and Washington has to make a
choice. "Saying that we should prioritize Taiwan over Ukraine is like arguing
that a fire truck should be parked at a house down the street to guard against a
fire breaking out in the future instead of knocking down the fire at the burning
house," argued John Walters, president of the Hudson Institute, at an event at
his think tank in April 2023.
He is right.
"Whenever you think World War III began, China is fighting it now," Kenneth
Abramowitz of Citizens for National Security told Gatestone this month. "It is
fighting the rest of the world in Ukraine, in Israel, and everywhere else. We
have to confront bad actors everywhere they attack us. It's not like a menu at a
restaurant where you only have to choose one."
There are many reasons to choose Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin,
after all, will not stop there, just as he did not stop after breaking apart
Georgia in 2008 or after seizing Crimea in 2014. "If Ukraine falls, Poland, the
Baltic republics and other NATO member states will face existential threats,"
Greg Scarlatoiu, president of the Committee for Human Rights in North Korea,
told this publication. Then, the U.S. and its NATO partners will be even more
stretched — and less able to defend Taiwan — than they are now.
China also does not stop on its own. China, for instance, took Scarborough Shoal
from the Philippines in early 2012. The Obama administration, while Vice
President Joe Biden was in charge of foreign policy, did not oppose the
audacious Chinese seizure.
When Chinese leaders saw Washington's failure to act, they soon moved against
Second Thomas Shoal and other Philippine reefs in the South China Sea, went
after Japan's islets in the East China Sea, and started reclaiming and
militarizing features in the Spratly Island chain. Obama and Biden legitimized
the worst elements in the Chinese political system by showing everybody else
that aggression worked.
China is on the move today, fighting proxy wars in Ukraine — Beijing
greenlighted the invasion with its "no limits" partnership declaration just
before Vladimir Putin's attack — in North Africa and in the Middle East. The
best way to stop China from attacking Taiwan is to defeat its proxies,
especially Russia in Europe. "Ukraine is not going to drive Beijing's decision
whether to attack Taiwan," said Elbridge Colby, who has led the charge against
defending Ukraine. "Instead, what's most critical for deterring a war over
Taiwan is the military balance in Asia." At this moment, that balance may or may
not favor China, but the most critical factor, I think, is casualty-averse
Beijing's assessment of whether America and its partners have the will to defend
Taiwan.
It was, after all, a perceived failure of will that led Putin to believe he
could invade Ukraine. The invasion shortly followed Biden's catastrophic
withdrawal from Afghanistan and his weak public statements in the days preceding
the attack.
It was this withdrawal that emboldened China. As Afghanistan was falling,
Beijing's main propaganda narrative was that the U.S. could not hope to counter
China because it could not deal with even the Taliban.
Beijing then went after Taiwan's governing organization, the Democratic
Progressive Party. "The DPP authorities need to keep a sober head, and the
secessionist forces should reserve the ability to wake up from their dreams," an
editorial from Global Times, which is controlled by People's Daily, stated.
"From what happened in Afghanistan, they should perceive that once a war breaks
out in the Straits, the island's defense will collapse in hours and the U.S.
military won't come to help."
Worse, China's leaders seem to think the U.S. is incapable. "It cannot win a war
anymore," Lu Xiang of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences told the Global
Times as the Taliban captured Kabul.
Losing Ukraine will make China even more confident in that assessment.
The Taiwanese, in fact, think that their security is closely tied to events in
Eastern Europe. "Ukraine's survival is Taiwan's survival," declared Bi-khim
Hsaio last year while serving as Taiwan's representative in Washington and
before becoming the island republic's vice president. "Ukraine's success is
Taiwan's success. Our futures are closely linked."
As Tsai Ing-wen, who stepped down as Taiwan's president in May, said on November
23, "A Ukrainian victory will serve as the most effective deterrence against
future aggression."
**Gordon G. Chang is the author of Plan Red: China's Project to Destroy America
and The Coming Collapse of China, a Gatestone Institute distinguished senior
fellow, and a member of its Advisory Board.
© 2024 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
US hastening the shift to a multipolar world
Osama Al-Sharif/Arab News/November 26, 2024
Nothing speaks of the US applying double standards when it comes to respecting
international law and UN bodies than its reaction to the International Criminal
Court’s issuance of arrest warrants against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on war crime charges. The
Biden administration was quick to reject the ruling, arguing lack of
jurisdiction by the court. President Joe Biden called the decision
“outrageous.”But Republican lawmakers were more belligerent, with Sen. Lindsey
Graham threatening America’s allies, such as Canada, the UK, France and Germany,
that if they were to cooperate with the court’s ruling, the US would crush their
economies. Others called for a bipartisan resolution sanctioning the court and
its prosecutor. Graham said that the US would be next on its list if the
International Criminal Court was not sanctioned.
This contrasts with the US and Graham cheering the court when it issued arrest
warrants against Russian President Vladimir Putin and former Sudan leader Omar
Bashir.
The world has been moving slowly from a unipolar to a multipolar reality for
years. But Israel’s horrific war on Gaza has accelerated that process. The US
has weakened the UN Security Council by exercising its veto power on multiple
occasions to derail draft resolutions calling for an unconditional ceasefire in
Gaza. The fact that many so-called Western liberal democracies defended Israel’s
genocidal war in Gaza, with some remaining unapologetic today, has strained the
rules-based order to breaking point.
Israel has put itself above the law, but what has made its exceptionalism, as a
lawbreaker, the norm is America’s blind support. There are clear indications
that Israel’s horrific military conduct in Gaza under the guise of self-defense
has had significant geopolitical implications that can be seen in the erosion of
America’s status as the world’s sole superpower. This position was achieved
following the end of the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union.
But the world is deeply polarized again. The Global South no longer sees the
West as the defender of universal values and the rule of law. Israel has put
itself above the law, but what has made its exceptionalism, as a lawbreaker, the
norm is America’s blind support and blatant partiality even before the war on
Gaza. For years, the US, which had appointed itself as the exclusive broker of a
political settlement between Israel and the Palestinians, looked the other way
as Israel expanded its illegal settlements in the Occupied Territories,
demolished Palestinian homes, killed and imprisoned thousands and imposed an
apartheid regime on millions of Palestinians under occupation. Moreover, it used
its power in the UNSC to derail any move to hold Israel accountable before the
law.
Under the Trump administration, the US went even further by unilaterally
recognizing Israel’s illegal annexation of East Jerusalem and Syria’s Golan
Heights. By doing so, the US itself became a rogue state, violating
international law and becoming culpable in Israel’s war crimes. In the coming
months and years, it is almost a done deal that the US will give the go-ahead
for Israel to annex the West Bank, and maybe Gaza as well, and kill any prospect
for a Palestinian state. All this would be illegal under international law and
UN resolutions.
In addition to the diverging international response to the war on Gaza, with the
US today standing almost alone in its explicit support of Israel’s actions,
Washington’s indifference to the position of its allies has diminished its moral
authority and diplomatic influence in certain regions, particularly the Middle
East and the Global South. The war has exposed limitations in the current UN
system, particularly the Security Council, potentially accelerating calls for
reform to better reflect a multipolar world order. Countries like Brazil, South
Africa, Russia, India and Turkiye are echoing such calls.
The US has been losing its global hegemony for a number of reasons, such as the
meteoric rise of China as an economic and military power, the birth of new
Global South coalitions and blocs, such as BRICS and the Association of
Southeast Asian Nations, and the emergence of regional powers like Turkiye,
Saudi Arabia, Brazil and Indonesia.
America’s audacious challenges of the rules-based order will accelerate the
drive toward a collapse of the post-Second World War entities
Furthermore, the increasing global reach of non-Western cultural influences and
media is challenging the dominance of traditional Western soft power. The
proliferation of diverse media sources and social media platforms has challenged
traditional Western-dominated narratives about global conflicts, reflecting a
more multipolar information landscape. It is not only America’s global dominance
that is eroding. The EU is seeing an unprecedented shift in public sentiments
toward the far right, which is dominated by euroskeptics, anti-immigration
populist figures and Islamophobic policies. These political undercurrents will
weaken the bloc’s global influence as it faces existential challenges. In the
Middle East, countries are distancing themselves from confrontational American
policies, such as Washington’s rivalry with China and Russia. This is evident in
Saudi Arabia’s opening to Moscow and Beijing, while maintaining a close working
relationship with the US based on what best serves its national interest.
Turkiye and Iran are also keeping all lines open as they forge new alliances
based on the shared interests of the neighborhood.The shift toward a multipolar
world is a reality that coincides with the eclipse of US global hegemony and
Trump’s “America First” policy. As America turns inward, its global dominance
will diminish. Moreover, its audacious challenges of the rules-based order will
accelerate the drive toward a collapse of the post-Second World War entities
that the US helped build. But the path toward a multipolar world remains fraught
with challenges. Unresolved conflicts will test the existing global system,
while new ones may pave the way for the birth of fresh alliances and platforms
of regional cooperation.
Osama Al-Sharif is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman. X:
@plato010
Israel harming UNRWA could be an own goal
Yossi Mekelberg/Arab News/November 26, 2024
UNRWA from the country within 90 days. In addition, Israeli legislators also
voted to designate this humanitarian aid organization as a terror group,
effectively ending any direct interaction between the UN agency and the Israeli
state.
I have written recently about a flurry of legislation in Israel, all of which
has an unpleasant anti-Palestinian flavor, from trying to bring down the
Palestinian Authority to exacerbating the oppression of Palestinians in the
Occupied Territories. Nevertheless, this act against UNRWA could have an
immediate and excruciating impact on millions of Palestinian refugees registered
with this humanitarian agency, at the worst possible time in their history since
the war of 1948.
Make no mistake, this law is very popular with Jewish Israelis who have, for
years, been fed by their government with misinformation that presents UNRWA as
an enemy of the country, one that unnecessarily prolongs and perpetuates the
refugee issue and advances anti-Israeli and even antisemitic propaganda. It is
generally portrayed as a tool in the hands of the most extremist Palestinians
who are only interested in the destruction of Israel.
Evidently, the participation of a very small number of UNRWA employees in the
Oct. 7 Hamas attacks, which the agency itself called “abhorrent” in its
investigation of the matter and as a result terminated the employment of nine of
them, has caused massive reputational damage. Worse, it opened the door to its
detractors to go on the attack and smear the entire organization and its
activities to the absurd extent of labeling the organization as a terrorist
group.
The Israeli government is not interested in dealing constructively with some of
its understandable grievances
In doing so, they ignored the fact that UNRWA carried out a full investigation
into the issue and handed out the most severe punishment possible to those who
were found guilty of participation in the Hamas attacks. There was no excuse for
anyone to take part in such an atrocity and by doing so harm the organization
that helps supply Palestinians with their most basic needs. Yet, it is worth
reminding ourselves that UNRWA employs 13,000 Palestinians in Gaza and that the
inexcusable acts of a tiny handful of them cannot and should not reflect on an
organization with nearly 30,000 staff across the region. And as long as the
organization adheres to the stringent UN code of conduct when its employees go
astray, it should not be punished and, importantly, neither should those who
benefit from its services and who are facing starvation.
Israel also has a point when it complains about the content of some of the
textbooks taught at UNRWA-sponsored schools in the Occupied Territories. Out of
very little choice, the curriculum and textbooks taught at UNRWA’s schools are
those of the “host country” and there are cases of some of the PA’s textbooks
containing antisemitic and inflammatory language aimed at Israel.
Part of this discussion should have initially taken place between Israel and the
PA, as much as among the international community, to persuade the Palestinian
leadership that there is no place for such language in their textbooks. There is
a logic in teaching the curriculum of the host country to allow the refugees to
be no different to other students, as it enhances their future opportunities,
but for the sake of everyone involved the PA must rid its teaching materials of
discriminatory language, as UNRWA has been pleading with it for years.
Nevertheless, the Israeli government is not interested in dealing constructively
with some of its understandable grievances. In its usual belligerent and
populist approach, it exploits the issue to deflect from its own failures. In
Benjamin Netanyahu’s world, there is always the need for enemies, domestic and
external, that he and his government are fighting against to save the realm. The
relentless attacks against this UN humanitarian aid agency have become all too
common in Israeli politics since Netanyahu took office and are currently being
launched with more venom, mainly because it is an easy target, as UNRWA, being a
UN organ, cannot directly reply to these attacks and defend itself. Most
significantly, however, UNRWA is not the issue and should never be the main
story. More important and pressing is the need to provide nearly 6 million
registered Palestinian refugees with humanitarian aid, with an extra sense of
commitment and urgency to the people of Gaza, most of whom were refugees to
begin with and, over the last 13 months, may have been displaced several times
over. More important and pressing is the need to provide nearly 6 million
registered Palestinian refugees with humanitarian aid
Under the most difficult of circumstances, such as bloody conflicts in the
Occupied Territories, Lebanon or Syria, it has been UNRWA that has continued to
provide millions of Palestinian refugees with healthcare, shelter and social
services. The organization was never meant to remain in charge of such a mission
for more than 75 years; it is only due to the failure of politicians to end the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict that it has become part of the landscape through no
fault of its own. In an ideal world, following a peace agreement, all services
provided by UNRWA would have been transferred to the government of an
independent Palestinian state or the host countries, enabling a smoother
transition.
Legislation aside, which in the case of the current Israeli government reflects
a need for instant gratification, regardless of the fact that, in most cases,
such a need leads to long-term harm. This particular piece of legislation is
damaging for both Israel and the Palestinians.
For instance, in Jerusalem, if the ban goes ahead, UNRWA would have to close its
headquarters in the eastern part of the city that has been annexed by Israel,
disabling its activities there. In the refugee camp of Shuafat, the only one in
the annexed Jerusalem side of Israel’s West Bank separation wall, more than
16,500 people would instantly be left with no health and education services. In
this case, it would become Israel’s responsibility to provide such services. The
choice for Israel would be either to become the humanitarian aid provider or to
leave the refugees with no health, education or any other social services.
The debate should never have revolved around UNRWA. The discussion should
concentrate on who is best positioned to ensure that Palestinian refugees
receive the services they are entitled to and to improve them year after year.
So far, no one has come up with a more viable alternative to UNRWA and this
piece of performative Israeli legislation is playing politics with the welfare
of millions of people and should not be allowed.
**Yossi Mekelberg is a professor of international relations and an associate
fellow of the MENA Program at Chatham House. X: @YMekelberg
Britain Faces a Dilemma: Cozy Up to Trump or Reconnect
With Europe?
Mark Landler and Patricia Cohen/The New York Times/November 26, 2024
When Prime Minister Keir Starmer of Britain joined President Emmanuel Macron of
France in Paris last week to celebrate Armistice Day — the first British leader
to do so since Winston Churchill in 1944 — it was a striking illustration of his
Labour government’s desire to reset relations with Europe. But despite the rich
symbolism and the palpable warmth between two centrist leaders, the visit was
overshadowed by Donald J. Trump’s victory in the American presidential election
a week earlier. With his history of antagonism toward the European Union, Mr.
Trump’s return complicates Mr. Starmer’s intention to “turn a corner on Brexit”
and pursue what he called a “once-in-a-generation opportunity” to rebuild ties
with the rest of Europe.
What could have been an economically profitable, if politically delicate,
bridge-building exercise for Britain’s Labour government now threatens to become
more of a binary choice between the E.U. and the United States.
Closer British trade ties with Europe, warn diplomats and people in Mr. Trump’s
orbit, could come at the expense of relations with the incoming American
president, who is a confirmed Brexiteer and cheered when his last British
counterpart, Boris Johnson, picked fights with the EU. “If the UK re-engages in
these political and economic ties with the EU, it makes it less likely that
Trump will go for a free-trade agreement with the UK,” said Stephen Moore, a
senior economic adviser to the Trump campaign.
“You guys have to decide,” he said in an interview, addressing the British
public. “Do you want to be more like Europe or the US?”
For now, British officials reject that as a false choice. Mr. Starmer has
balanced his diplomatic outreach to Europe with an assiduous effort to cultivate
Mr. Trump. The two met for dinner in Trump Tower in September, during which Mr.
Trump told Mr. Starmer, “We are friends,” according to a person who was in the
room. Peter Mandelson, a Labour Party grandee under consideration to be
Britain’s next ambassador to Washington, recently said on a Times of London
podcast that in the three-way relationship between Britain, Europe and the
United States, “We have got to find a way to have our cake and eat it.”
Such an outcome, economists said, could feature advances on two tracks: With
Europe, Britain could take more aggressive steps to smooth trade friction, like
more closely aligning rules on agriculture, linking carbon tax systems, and
allowing greater mobility across borders for young people. With the United
States, it could pursue, if not a full-scale free-trade agreement, a partial
deal that would cover strategically important areas like the digital economy. A
closer economic relationship with the European Union need not come at the
expense of good relations with the United States, said Marley Morris, an
associate director at the Institute for Public Policy Research in London.
“They’ll want to do everything they can to try to work collaboratively with
Trump,” he said of the Labour government. Yet even when Britain was more
ideologically in sync with the United States during Mr. Johnson’s premiership
and Mr. Trump’s first term, the two sides failed to negotiate a trade agreement.
This time, Mr. Trump’s trade policy seems more focused on his plan to impose
across-the-board tariffs of up to 20 percent on trading partners, including,
potentially, the EU and Britain. In that scenario, diplomats said, Mr. Starmer’s
best hope may not be a trade deal but rather targeted exemptions from tariffs.
At one level, far-reaching tariffs by the United States on the European Union
“could be an unintentional gift to the UK,” said Abraham L. Newman, a political
scientist at Georgetown University. It would put a “lot of pressure on the EU to
expand its market,” he said, “and the UK is an obvious opportunity for them.”
Tariffs push “them together in a way that they’ve been pushed apart in the last
few years,” Professor Newman added. But while Britain and the European Union
could make common cause in responding to American tariffs, it is equally likely
that a new wave of protectionism could divide them, diplomats said, particularly
if Britain tried to cut its own deal with Mr. Trump that would exempt it from
certain tariffs. “If the UK did it alone, there would be a price to pay,” said
Peter Ricketts, a former British national security adviser. “The US would demand
concessions, like access for its genetically modified beef, which could create
problems with UK consumers and would cause problems with Europe.”
Britain will not be able to lift regulations when it comes to trade with the
United States while still complying with the European Union’s rules, said Mark
Blyth, professor of international economics at Brown University.
“If you bandwagon with Trump,” Professor Blyth said, “you’re never going to get
EU market access.”That pressure could intensify further if Mr. Trump stokes new
trade tensions with China. At a Group of 20 summit in Brazil this week, Mr.
Starmer met with President Xi Jinping of China and declared afterward that he
wanted “consistent, durable, respectful” relations between Britain and China.
But Kim Darroch, who served as the British ambassador to Washington during the
first Trump term, said: “If the US gets into a trade war with China, they may
well come to Europe and the UK and say, ‘You need to join us in tariffs.’ There
are some really hard choices coming down the road.”
If Britain is forced to make that choice, some argue that it should throw its
lot in with Europe. Trade across the English Channel is more than two and a half
times greater than that between Britain and the United States. British exports
to the EU totaled 342 billion pounds, or $433 billion last year, 42 percent of
its total exports. Imports from the EU reached 466 pounds, or $590 billion, 52
percent of its total.
Rebuilding those ties would help recapture some of the growth lost because of
Britain’s departure from the EU. A thicket of red tape, border delays and extra
costs now ensnarl cross-channel trade. British exporters complain that they must
monitor gas usage to comply with the EU’s carbon border tax. Shellfish exporters
note that veterinarians must certify shipments of crabs and lobsters headed to
France and Spain.
While the trade negotiations have so far been limited to relatively minor issues
like accepting European veterinary safety standards, the British Chamber of
Commerce has set out a long list of reforms that could go much further in
smoothing trade.
Mr. Trump’s skepticism of NATO, and the growing belief that Europe needs to rely
less on the United States for its security, is a further incentive to cooperate.
Together, Britain and France account for half of Europe’s military capabilities,
at a time when security and economic policies are more closely intertwined.
François Hollande, the former French president, said recently that Mr. Starmer
“needs to position himself as a European leader.”Drawing closer to Europe would
not be easy for the prime minister, even without Mr. Trump. Britain’s
Tory-leaning press remains openly hostile to the EU and will be quick to condemn
his rapprochement. Labour politicians worry that a pro-Europe strategy could
hurt the party with voters in the so-called “red wall” districts, many of whom
backed Brexit but came back to Labour in the last election.
Britain is also instinctively reluctant to do anything that could jeopardize its
“special relationship” with the United States, even if successive American
presidents have seemed less nostalgic about it.“I’m sure that for the next
while, Starmer & Co. will do all they can to get a good deal from Europe, as
well as the US,” said Peter Kellner, former head of the polling firm, YouGov.
“But I think there may come a point where they can’t ride both horses, and they
will have to choose.”