English LCCC Newsbulletin For
Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For November 02/2024
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news
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Bible Quotations For today
”The stone that the builders rejected has become
the cornerstone
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Matthew 21/33-46/:”‘Listen to
another parable. There was a landowner who planted a vineyard, put a fence
around it, dug a wine press in it, and built a watch-tower. Then he leased it to
tenants and went to another country. When the harvest time had come, he sent his
slaves to the tenants to collect his produce. But the tenants seized his slaves
and beat one, killed another, and stoned another. Again he sent other slaves,
more than the first; and they treated them in the same way. Finally he sent his
son to them, saying, “They will respect my son. “But when the tenants saw the
son, they said to themselves, “This is the heir; come, let us kill him and get
his inheritance. “So they seized him, threw him out of the vineyard, and killed
him. Now when the owner of the vineyard comes, what will he do to those
tenants?’ They said to him, ‘He will put those wretches to a miserable death,
and lease the vineyard to other tenants who will give him the produce at the
harvest time. ’Jesus said to them, ‘Have you never read in the scriptures: “The
stone that the builders rejected has become the cornerstone; this was the Lord’s
doing, and it is amazing in our eyes”? Therefore I tell you, the kingdom of God
will be taken away from you and given to a people that produces the fruits of
the kingdom. The one who falls on this stone will be broken to pieces; and it
will crush anyone on whom it falls.’ When the chief priests and the Pharisees
heard his parables, they realized that he was speaking about them. They wanted
to arrest him, but they feared the crowds, because they regarded him as a
prophet.”
Titles For The Latest English LCCC
Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on November
01-02/2024
2897 Martyrs and 13,150 Injured Since the Start of the Aggression;
30 Martyrs and 103 Injured Yesterday
Updated Casualty Report: 52 Martyrs and 72 Injured from Israeli Strikes Today on
Baalbek-Hermel
Hochstein Denies Request for Lebanon to Announce a Unilateral Ceasefire
WHO ‘deeply concerned’ about ‘rising attacks’ on Lebanon health care
Lebanon PM says expanded strikes suggest Israel rejects truce
US asked Lebanon to declare unilateral truce with Israel, sources say; both
sides deny it
US truce efforts on Lebanon fail ahead of election, diplomatic sources say
Israeli airstrikes on villages in northeastern Lebanon kill 10 people
Israel pounds Beirut's southern suburbs overnight with airstrikes
Israeli airstrike on the edge of Qmatiyeh kills 3 and wounds 5
Israel strikes eastern city of Baalbek
Hezbollah willing to bend, not break for a truce
Berri: 1701 only choice to achieve security and stability
Lebanon-Israel ceasefire efforts: Latest developments
Mikati accuses Israel of rejecting truce after Dahieh strikes
Some defiant south Lebanese stay put in face of Israeli fire
Lebanese 'orphaned of their land' as Israel blows up homes
WHO 'deeply concerned' about 'rising attacks' on Lebanon healthcare
UN envoy says war puts Lebanon heritage sites 'in deep peril'
UN aid agency says there's a new wave of displacement from Dahieh after Israeli
strikes
Polarization of journalism rising amid Israel attacking, killing media workers
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on November
01-02/2024
47 Palestinians killed overnight in
Israeli strikes in central Gaza, Palestinian news agency says
Delayed Gaza polio vaccinations to resume on Saturday, agencies say
Israel plans to use lasers to shoot down incoming missiles
Iran adviser hints at expansion of missile range, nuclear doctrine review after
Israel strikes
US is sending $425 million in military assistance to Ukraine
Analysis-Iran braces for Trump victory, fearing more Israeli strikes, Western
sanctions
Pentagon bolsters the US presence in the Middle East with bomber aircraft and
warships
US election: officials are issued with panic buttons as attacks on ballot boxes
continue
Titles For The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources
on November
01-02/2024
Europe's German Problem/Drieu Godefridi/Gatestone Institute/November 01/2024
Question: “How can I learn to trust that God is in control?”/GotQuestions.org/November
01/2024
Trump’s New Islamist Friends/Benjamin Baird/Middle East Forum/October 01/2024
Turkiye through the eyes of Eastern European states/Sinem Cengiz/Arab
News/November 01, 2024
Moscow struggles to find allies for Ukraine war/Luke Coffey/Arab News/November
01, 2024
How to End the Third Lebanon War—and Prevent the Fourth/Assaf Orion/The
Washington Institute/November 01/October 2024
The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News &
Editorials published
on October 31- November 01/2024
2897 Martyrs and 13,150 Injured Since
the Start of the Aggression; 30 Martyrs and 103 Injured Yesterday
National News Agency/November 1, 2024
The Public Health Ministry’s Emergency Operations Center released its daily
report on the toll and repercussions of the Israeli aggression on Lebanon.
According to the report, Israeli airstrikes on Thursday, October 31, 2024,
resulted in 30 martyrs and 103 injuries. The total number of martyrs and injured
since the beginning of the aggression now stands at 2,897 martyrs and 13,150
injured.
Updated Casualty Report: 52 Martyrs and 72 Injured from Israeli Strikes Today on
Baalbek-Hermel
National News Agency/November 1, 2024
The Public Health Ministry’s Emergency Operations Center also released an
updated report on Israeli airstrikes on towns in Baalbek-Hermel, revealing the
following casualties:
Amhaz (Bazaliyah): 12 martyrs and 7 injured
Harbata: 6 martyrs and 4 injured
Younine: 9 martyrs and 1 injured
Bednayel: 8 martyrs and 7 injured
Nahleh: 4 martyrs and 7 injured
Sharawneh: 2 martyrs
Taria: 1 martyr and 7 injured
Labweh: 1 injured
Khodr: 6 injured
Saeedah: 2 martyrs and 3 injured
Alaq: 4 martyrs and 2 injured
Ras al-Ain: 6 injured
Hosh al-Nabi: 21 injured
Ayat: 4 martyrs
Hochstein Denies Request for Lebanon to Announce a Unilateral Ceasefire
Al Markazia/November 1, 2024
U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein denied circulating reports claiming that the U.S.
asked Lebanon to declare a unilateral ceasefire with Israel. An American
official also confirmed that "there is no truth to the rumors of a proposed
unilateral ceasefire from Lebanon." Speaking to Al Arabiya on Thursday, the
official stated that "Washington is working continuously with both Israel and
Lebanon to reach a sustainable ceasefire agreement."The official added that the
meetings held between U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Amos Hochstein
and President Biden’s Middle East envoy, Brett McGurk, in Israel were in-depth
and constructive. He highlighted that "the discussions focused on the importance
of finding a solution to ensure the return of displaced people on both sides of
the Blue Line."CNN reported that "U.S. envoys Amos Hochstein and Brett McGurk
returned to Washington after a last attempt before the elections to resolve the
Middle East conflict," noting that "the visit specifically concentrated on
efforts to secure a ceasefire agreement in Lebanon." The Israeli Broadcasting
Corporation quoted an American official stating that "the meetings of U.S.
envoys Amos Hochstein and Brett McGurk regarding the Lebanon ceasefire have been
positive, and gaps have narrowed."Yesterday, Israel’s Channel 12 reported that
"U.S. Special Envoy Amos Hochstein and Special Envoy for Middle Eastern Affairs
Brett McGurk made significant progress toward a settlement on the Lebanon
front." Earlier today, an Israeli official told ABC News of “substantial
progress toward a ceasefire in Lebanon.”This comes amid continued Israeli
airstrikes on Lebanon and attempted ground incursions into the south, which
Hezbollah is countering, including attacks on Israeli soldiers and vehicles in
settlements near the Lebanese border and ongoing rocket launches that have
reached as far as Tel Aviv and Haifa.
WHO ‘deeply concerned’ about ‘rising attacks’ on Lebanon
health care
AFP/November 01, 2024
GENEVA: The World Health Organization said Friday it is deeply concerned about
Israeli attacks hitting health care workers and facilities in Lebanon, in its
war against Hezbollah. “We are really, really concerned, deeply concerned, about
the rising attacks on health workers and the facilities in Lebanon, and we are
again and again and again emphasizing that health care is not a target; health
workers are not a target,” WHO spokeswoman Margaret Harris told a media briefing
in Geneva.
Lebanon PM says expanded strikes suggest Israel rejects
truce
NAJIA HOUSSARI/Arab News/November 01/ 2024
BEIRUT: Israel bombarded the southern suburbs of Beirut on Friday as caretaker
Prime Minister Najib Mikati accused it of “stubbornness” in negotiations.
Israeli attacks came amid stalled talks by two US envoys in Israel in an attempt
to reach a ceasefire in Lebanon. Mikati reaffirmed Lebanon’s continued
commitment to UN resolution 1701 and its provisions. Mikati said he believed
that Israel’s “renewed expansion of the scope of its aggression on Lebanese
regions, its repeated threats to the population to evacuate entire cities and
villages, and its renewed targeting of the southern suburbs of Beirut with
destructive raids are all indicators that confirm Israel’s rejection of all
efforts being made to secure a ceasefire in preparation for the full
implementation of UN Resolution 1701.” He said: “Israeli statements and
diplomatic signals that Lebanon received confirm Israel’s stubbornness in
rejecting the proposed solutions and insisting on the approach of killing and
destruction. “This places the entire international community before its
historical and moral responsibilities to stop this aggression.”Mikati denied the
claims of two Reuters sources on Friday, which stated that the US “had asked
Lebanon to declare a unilateral ceasefire to inject momentum into stalled talks
on a deal to end hostilities.”His media office said that the Lebanese
government’s stance was “clear on seeking a ceasefire from both sides and the
implementation of Resolution 1701.”Mikati’s warning came as the Israeli Air
Force carried out 14 raids against neighborhoods in Beirut’s southern suburbs
after two weeks of cautious calm in the area. The raids affected Burj Al-Barajneh,
Rweis, Haret Hreik, Hadath and the old airport road.
Twelve raids targeted Baalbek-Hermel, causing further casualties, including
entire families.
In Amhazieh alone, 12 people died in a raid, most of whom were children, while a
woman was killed and five were injured in a raid in Taraya, west of Baalbek.
Three people were killed in Hrabta, while another was killed in Kasarnaba.
Before the raids, Israeli army spokesperson Avichay Adraee sent evacuation
warnings to residents at about 3.30 a.m., which was followed by heavy shooting
by Hezbollah members to alert sleeping residents in the areas targeted. People
left their homes in pyjamas, carrying their children along the streets near the
old airport road, one of the targeted areas. During a week-long period of
relative calm, many residents of Beirut’s southern suburbs returned to their
homes, which were not affected by previous raids. The raids caused widespread
destruction in these areas, which are considered by the Israeli army as
Hezbollah’s security square, although the Lebanese consider the area
residential.
In a statement on Friday, the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human
Rights, expressed concern over “the impact of the Israeli operations on
civilians and infrastructure in Lebanon.”
Israeli strikes on the ancient cities of Tyre and Baalbek, home to
UNESCO-designated Roman ruins, were endangering Lebanon’s cultural heritage,
said UN special coordinator Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert. “Ancient Phoenician
cities steeped in history are in deep peril of being left in ruins,”
Hennis-Plasschaert said in a social media post, adding that Lebanon’s cultural
heritage “must not become yet another casualty in this devastating conflict.”Her
appeal came as Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri said: “Since last September,
Israel has wasted more than one opportunity to reach a ceasefire, implement
Resolution 1701, restore calm, and return the displaced to both sides of the
border.” He underlined Lebanon’s “commitment to implementing Resolution 1701 as
the only option to achieve regional security and stability.” MP Michel Moussa, a
parliamentary Development and Liberation Bloc member, said Berri “has been
informed that ceasefire negotiations have reached an impasse.”Moussa said Israel
had shown no intention to negotiate, appearing to await US elections as a
“significant turning point.”
During his meeting with US special envoys Amos Hochstein and Brett McGurk,
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Thursday that Israel “is
determined to confront the threats in the north. Any ceasefire with Hezbollah in
Lebanon must guarantee Israel’s security.”He added: “There is pressure to
prematurely achieve a settlement in Lebanon, and reality has proven otherwise.
“I did not set a date for the war’s end, but I set clear goals for victory,”
Netanyahu said. “We respect Resolutions 1701 and 1559, but they are not the main
thing.” The Israeli airstrikes, which continued on Friday morning and during the
day, targeted a residential apartment in the town of Qmatiyeh in Aley, killing
three members of a family living there and wounding five. They also targeted
dozens of towns in the south and northern Bekaa after the city of Baalbek turned
into a ghost town as a result of renewed Israeli warnings against the return of
those who were displaced from it. Israeli attacks on Baalbek-Hermel Governorate
and Central Bekaa include 1,035 airstrikes, which have killed 528 and 1,069
injured people. According to a report by the ministerial emergency committee,
the toll has risen to 2,822 dead and 12,937 wounded since the first attack by
Israel against Lebanon about 14 months. Hezbollah MP Hussein Hajj Hassan
estimated that about “60,000 people were displaced from Baalbek and Hermel, and
the figure needs to be updated daily.”
In a report on its field operations against the Israeli army, Hezbollah said
that “more than 95 soldiers were killed, 900 others wounded, and 42 Merkava
tanks were destroyed” since the ground offensive began. “Three Hermes 450 and
two Hermes 900 drones were shot down. Israeli forces are trying not to move or
change their positions in the fields, fearing being targeted,” Hezbollah said.
The UNIFIL commander, Gen. Aroldo Lazaro, visited Mikati and Berri on Friday to
discuss the ongoing military operations against Lebanon and the difficulties and
threats UNIFIL faces while carrying out its mission. Mikati emphasized the
importance of “adhering to the role of UNIFIL, recognizing its importance in the
south and not compromising its rules of work and the missions it is carrying out
in close cooperation with the Lebanese army.”In Israel, sirens sounded in
several settlements in the Galilee panhandle, coinciding with an Israeli
announcement “detecting around 10 rockets being launched from Lebanon, some of
which were intercepted and others landed in open areas.”Hezbollah announced
targeting “Kiryat Shmona, Hatzor HaGlilit, Kidmat Tzvi, Yesod HaMa’ala and
Karmiel,” and a group of soldiers near the Lebanese border town of Khiyam. Also
on Friday, a 17th Saudi relief plane, operated by the Saudi aid agency KSRelief,
landed at Rafic Hariri International Airport in Beirut, carrying food, shelter
and medical aid, the Saudi Press Agency reported.
US asked Lebanon to declare unilateral truce with Israel, sources say; both
sides deny it
Timour Azhari and Laila Bassam/BEIRUT (Reuters)/November 01/2024
A U.S. official asked Lebanon to declare a unilateral ceasefire with Israel to
revive stalled talks to end Israeli-Hezbollah hostilities, a senior Lebanese
political source and a senior diplomat said - a claim denied by both sides and
the U.S. official. The sources said the request was made by U.S. envoy Amos
Hochstein to Lebanese caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati this week, as the
U.S. stepped up diplomacy in search of a ceasefire between Israel and
Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah. "This is false" Hochstein said in a post
on X, commenting on a Reuters journalist's tweet about this story. In a
statement to Reuters, Mikati's office denied the U.S. had asked Lebanon to
declare a unilateral truce. It said the government's stance was clear on seeking
a mutual ceasefire and implementation of U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701,
which ended the last round of conflict between the two foes in 2006. A U.S.
official also denied such a proposal had been made. "The U.S. is working with
both parties to achieve an enduring ceasefire. Senior (White House) officials
visited both Lebanon and Israel in the last several days to advance this
effort," the official said. The sources said the U.S. sought to persuade Beirut
to take back some initiative in the talks, particularly given the perception
that Israel will likely continue military operations that have already killed
most of Hezbollah's leadership and laid waste to swathes of Lebanon's south.
Lebanon's armed forces are not involved in the hostilities between Israel and
Hezbollah, which began firing rockets at Israel a year ago in solidarity with
its Palestinian ally Hamas in Gaza. Any effort to reach a ceasefire would need a
green light from Hezbollah, which has ministers in Lebanon's cabinet and whose
members and allies hold a significant number of seats in parliament. Diplomats
mediate with Hezbollah through the group's ally, Lebanese speaker of parliament
Nabih Berri. Hezbollah has said it supports efforts by Berri to reach a
ceasefire but that it must meet certain unspecified parameters. But the sources
acknowledged that a unilateral declaration would probably be seen as a
non-starter in Lebanon, where it would likely be equated with surrender to
Israel.
DIPLOMATIC INITIATIVE
Another diplomat told Reuters that Hochstein had made a similar proposal months
ago to Mikati and Berri. Hochstein told them, according to the diplomat, that if
Hezbollah unilaterally declared a ceasefire, he "could have something to
present" to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as a diplomatic
initiative. "His exact words were, 'help me, help you," the diplomat said,
adding that then-Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah rejected the idea. Nasrallah
was killed in an Israeli air attack on Sept. 27 on Beirut's southern suburbs.
Despite its losses, Hezbollah has maintained that its chain of command is intact
and its fighters have kept at bay Israeli forces making ground incursions into
Lebanon. Israel says it is undertaking limited ground operations to destroy
Hezbollah infrastructure and degrade the group's fighting capacities. The U.S.
has been pushing for a 60-day ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel as a
prelude to a fuller implementation of U.N. Resolution 1701, sources told Reuters
this week. Hochstein was in Israel on Thursday with White House envoy Brett
McGurk, but they did not continue on to Lebanon. Speaking about Lebanon on
Thursday, Netanyahu said that "agreements, documents, proposals....are not the
main point." He added: "The main point is our ability and determination to
enforce security, thwart attacks against us, and act against the arming of our
enemies, as necessary and despite any pressure and constraints. This is the main
point."
US truce efforts on Lebanon fail ahead of election, diplomatic sources say
Maya Gebeily/BEIRUT (Reuters)/November 01/2024
American efforts to halt fighting between Israel and Hezbollah have failed after
the U.S. drafted an "unrealistic" ceasefire proposal and Israel's insistence on
being able to enforce a truce directly, people briefed on the diplomacy told
Reuters.
With no workable proposal on the table ahead of Tuesday's U.S. presidential
election, the conflict could drag on for months, according to a Lebanese
political source close to Hezbollah, two diplomats and a person briefed on the
talks. They all spoke on condition of anonymity. The office of Israeli Prime
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu did not respond to questions from Reuters. A U.S.
official said talks between U.S. envoys and Israeli officials on Thursday
yielded better results than expected. A second U.S. official described the
meetings as "substantive" and "constructive" but said the U.S. would not
negotiate in public. The State Department referred Reuters to comments by
Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who said Israel and Lebanon were moving
toward understandings on what was required to end the conflict but more work was
needed. Lebanese armed group Hezbollah and Israel have been exchanging fire for
a year in parallel with the Gaza war but fighting has escalated in recent weeks.
Israel says it has uncovered Hezbollah tunnels and weapons stores in south
Lebanon, and that the Iran-backed group had planned an incursion into Israel
even larger than the Oct. 7, 2023 attack by Hamas. The U.S. had drafted a 60-day
truce proposal that would see Hezbollah pull back from Lebanon's southern
border, both sides cease attacks and 10,000 Lebanese army troops deploy in the
south, according to Israel's public broadcaster Kan. But two diplomats told
Reuters the diplomatic efforts had failed because that draft was not viable. "It
was totally unrealistic because of the onus it places on the Lebanese army to
solve these problems," a Western diplomat told Reuters. A regional diplomat
echoed those doubts, specifically pointing to elements of a "side letter"
between the U.S. and Israel published by Kan which gave Israel the right to take
action against imminent threats to its security. The diplomat described this
proposal as "unworkable". Lebanon's government has not commented publicly on the
draft, but officials told Reuters that Israel's insistence on "direct
enforcement" of a deal would breach state sovereignty. U.S. envoys Amos
Hochstein and Brett McGurk, who were in Israel on Thursday to discuss a
ceasefire with Israeli officials, did not continue on to Lebanon for talks.
"After Hochstein's attempt yesterday, that's it. It seems only the battlefield
will decide," the Lebanese political figure close to Hezbollah told Reuters.
'STUBBORNNESS'
The U.S. has struggled to break the deadlock in talks. This week, Hochstein
asked Lebanon to declare a unilateral ceasefire with Israel to make headway, two
sources told Reuters - a claim denied by Lebanon's premier and Hochstein.
Netanyahu is facing pressure in Israel from the tens of thousands evacuated from
northern areas to make sure that Israel would be able to ensure that any
agreement was respected and that Hezbollah and other militias would not be able
to return. "It is essential, therefore, that Israel insists on retaining
security freedom of action to enforce an agreement in Lebanon," the conservative
Israel Hayom daily said. Netanyahu's office said he told Hochstein on Thursday
that Israel's main concern was not "this or that agreement on paper but Israel's
ability and determination to enforce the agreement and thwart any threat to its
security from Lebanon". On Friday, Lebanese leaders blamed Israel for
undermining any deal. "Israeli statements and diplomatic signals that Lebanon
received confirm Israel's stubbornness in rejecting the proposed solutions and
insisting on the approach of killing and destruction," Lebanon's prime minister
Najib Mikati said. Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri, an ally of Hezbollah and
the main diplomatic channel used to mediate with it, said Israel had "wasted
more than one opportunity" to reach a ceasefire. In comments to pan-Arab
newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat, Berri said Netanyahu had rejected a roadmap that
Lebanon and Hochstein had been on board with, and said any diplomacy had been
postponed until after Tuesday's U.S. presidential election. "The most likely
scenario now is that the Israelis will keep doing what they want to do - with no
ceasefire," the Western diplomat said.
Israeli airstrikes on villages in northeastern Lebanon
kill 10 people
Agence France Presse/November 01/2024
Lebanon’s state news agency says two separate Israeli airstrikes on Friday in
the country's northeast have killed 10 people. The National News Agency said
eight people were killed when a village home in Amhaz was destroyed while two
other people were killed in the village of Taraya.
Israel intensified its airstrikes on the northeastern Baalbek-Hermel region
earlier this week, killing dozens and leaving tens of thousands displaced.
Lebanese legislator Hussein Haj Hassan, who represents the region in Parliament,
said that so far 60,000 people have been displaced from the area, many of them
moved to safer towns and villages nearby.
Israel pounds Beirut's southern suburbs overnight with
airstrikes
Associated Press/November 01/2024
Israel’s air force resumed airstrikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs overnight,
destroying buildings in several neighborhoods, Lebanon’s state-run National News
Agency said. There was no immediate word on casualties. The early Friday
airstrikes on Dahieh — after a four-day lull during which no airstrikes were
reported in the suburbs — destroyed dozens of buildings and caused fires in the
area, the agency said. In recent days, Israel has intensified its airstrikes on
the northeastern city of Baalbek and nearby villages, as well as different parts
of southern Lebanon.
The Dahieh airstrike came shortly after the Israeli army said it "will not let
Hezbollah's deadly attacks go unanswered," after seven civilians including four
Thai workers were killed by Hezbollah rockets in northern Israel.
Israeli airstrike on the edge of Qmatiyeh kills 3 and
wounds 5
Associated Press/November 01/2024
Lebanon’s Health Ministry said an Israeli airstrike on a mountain town
overlooking Beirut has killed three people and wounded five. The ministry gave
no further details about the early Friday airstrike on the edge of Qmatiyeh, in
the Aley district southeast of Beirut. An Associated Press journalist who
visited the scene said the strike was closer to the nearby Aley village of Ain
al-Rummaneh, adding that it caused minor damage to an apartment on the first
floor of a building. On Oct. 6, an Israeli strike in Qmatiyeh killed six people,
including three children, Lebanon’s Health Ministry said.
The strike and a wave of fresh raids on Beirut's southern suburbs came shortly
after the Israeli army said it "will not let Hezbollah's deadly attacks go
unanswered," after seven civilians including four Thai workers were killed by
Hezbollah rockets in northern Israel.
Israel strikes eastern city of Baalbek
Agence France Presse/November 01/2024
The official National News Agency on Friday reported an Israeli strike on the
eastern city of Baalbek, following heavy air raids on the area in recent days.
Israeli "enemy aircraft launched a raid on the Zahraa neighborhood in the city
of Baalbek," home to ancient Roman ruins designated a UNESCO World Heritage
site, NNA said.
Hezbollah willing to bend, not break for a truce
Agence France Presse/November 01/2024
More than a month into its war with Israel, Hezbollah says it is ready for a
truce, but there are limits to what it can accept after suffering devastating
attacks, analysts say. The Iran-backed group said Wednesday it would accept a
ceasefire, if offered and if the terms were "suitable," acknowledging it had
been dealt "painful" blows by Israel. Also Wednesday, Lebanon's premier Najib
Mikati said he had received signals from U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein that a truce
could be reached before the U.S. elections on November 5. With much of its
senior leadership killed and its strongholds pulverized, Hezbollah could use the
recovery time that a truce would offer. A ceasefire is a "priority" for
Hezbollah so it can "reorganize its ranks," said Qassim Qassir, a Lebanese
analyst close to the group. "It will agree to the deployment of the army (in
south Lebanon) and to stay away from the borders, but nothing more than that,"
he told AFP, referring to Israeli demands for Hezbollah to retreat some 30
kilometers (20 miles) from the frontier. Hezbollah, which began trading
cross-border fire with Israel last year in support of its Palestinian ally Hamas,
has found itself on the back foot since all-out war erupted on September 23.
Israel has assassinated the group's most senior leaders, including its chief
Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and Sayyed Hashem Safieddine, tipped as his successor.
The killings created a month-long vacuum at the top, as targeted strikes on
hideouts across the country suggested an intelligence breach. On the ground,
Israeli forces have advanced as far as the town of Khiam, some six kilometers
(four miles) from the border.Hezbollah says the Israelis have yet to fully
control any frontier village.
'Withdraw fighters'
In Lebanon's east, Hezbollah infrastructure, including underground tunnels and
weapon supply lines from Syria, have come under attack, Israel's military says.
At least two out of six land crossings with Syria have been closed after Israeli
strikes, and aircraft operated by Hezbollah-backer Iran are banned from landing
in Lebanon's only airport, Beirut. Hezbollah "has been considerably weakened...
and it will be very difficult to rebuild it in the current context," said Maha
Yahya, director of the Carnegie Middle East Center. Already, there are signs
that Hezbollah is willing to budge, after repeatedly declaring it would only
stop attacks on Israel if there was a Gaza ceasefire. Although it has yet to
officially reverse that position, Mikati said Wednesday Hezbollah was no longer
linking the two fronts, a reversal he said came "late." Mikati also said
Hezbollah ministers were on board with the implementation of a 2006 U.N.
resolution as part of a ceasefire deal. Security Council Resolution 1701, which
ended the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war, states that only the Lebanese Army and U.N.
peacekeepers should be deployed in southern Lebanon. It also demands the
withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanese territory. "Hezbollah is moving to a
point where it could accept the implementation of U.N. resolution 1701," said
David Wood, senior Lebanon analyst at the International Crisis Group think tank.
"Hezbollah might be willing to withdraw fighters and infrastructure" some 30
kilometers (20 miles) from Lebanon's southern border to areas north of the
Litani River.
Military pressure -
According to Wood, "there is enormous amount of pressure on Hezbollah" from
political rivals and its own support base, "to bring an end to this
carnage.""This explains why it is more open to ceasefire talks," he said. At the
same time, Hezbollah has continued rocket and drone strikes against Israel,
including targeting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's residence. This shows
that while Hezbollah is open to a ceasefire, "it will not accept just any
terms," Wood said. Hezbollah "still feels like it has a seat at the table and
could reach a negotiated settlement without total surrender."Mounir Shehadeh, a
former Lebanese government coordinator for the U.N. peacekeeping force UNIFIL,
said Hezbollah is ready to implement Resolution 1701 provided that Israel does
so. But "Israel has no interest in implementing the resolution, and it has been
violating it since it was signed in 2006," Shehadeh said. Another stumbling
block is that many Hezbollah cadres come from the very villages Israel wants the
group to vacate. Hezbollah fighters "are the sons of these southern towns,"
Shehadeh said. "Someone who was born in these villages and grew up there, and
his family is there and his interests are there, how can he be asked to leave
his village and head to the north of the Litani?"
Berri: 1701 only choice to achieve security and stability
Naharnet/November 01/2024
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri noted Friday that “at least since September,
Israel has wasted several certain chances to achieve a ceasefire, implement
Resolution 1701, restore calm and secure a return of the displaced on both sides
of the border.” Berri voiced his remarks in a meeting in Ain el-Tineh with
UNIFIL Head of Mission and Force Commander Lt. Gen. Aroldo Lázaro. The Speaker
also stressed “Lebanon’s commitment to the implementation of Resolution 1701,”
considering it “the only choice to achieve security and stability in the
region.”
Lebanon-Israel ceasefire efforts: Latest developments
Naharnet/November 01/2024
The meetings that U.S. envoys Amos Hochstein and Brett McGurk held Thursday in
Israel regarding a ceasefire in Lebanon were “good” and “the gaps have
narrowed,” a U.S. official told the Israeli Public Broadcasting Corporation.
LBCI’s correspondent in Israel meanwhile said Friday that discussions are
continuing in Israel over the “adjustments” that Washington will send regarding
the proposed ceasefire with Lebanon.“Israel’s security cabinet will on Sunday
discuss the proposals that will be sent by Washington,” LBCI added. An Israeli
official informed on all deliberations meanwhile told Israel’s Channel 12 that
the U.S. and Israeli officials agreed at the end of Thursday’s meeting to hold
further meetings to “draft a comprehensive plan,” saying “there is major
progress in the efforts to reach security arrangements on the Lebanese-Israeli
border.”
Mikati accuses Israel of rejecting truce after Dahieh
strikes
Agence France Presse/November 01/2024
Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati accused Israel of rejecting a ceasefire
after the Israeli military bombed Beirut's southern suburbs for the first time
this week on Friday. At least 10 strikes hit the southern suburbs before dawn
after the Israeli military issued evacuation warnings, with AFPTV footage
showing explosions and clouds of smoke. "The raids left massive destruction in
the targeted areas, as dozens of buildings were leveled to the ground, in
addition to the outbreak of fires," Lebanon's National News Agency reported,
adding that strikes also targeted a town in Aley, southeast of the capital, and
Bint Jbeil in the country's south. The Israeli military said it continued
operations against the Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon and its Palestinian ally
Hamas in the Gaza Strip. The strikes came a day after Israeli Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu met U.S. officials to discuss a possible deal to end the war
in Lebanon, ahead of Tuesday's U.S. presidential election. Mikati condemned the
"expansion" of Israel's attacks, saying they signaled a refusal to engage in
truce efforts. "The Israeli enemy's renewed expansion... and its renewed
targeting of the southern suburbs of Beirut with destructive raids are all
indicators that confirm the Israeli enemy's rejection of all efforts being made
to secure a ceasefire," he said. The strikes targeted Ghobeiri, al-Kafaat, the
Sayyed Hadi Highway, and the area near the al-Mujtaba Complex and the old
airport road, the NNA reported. Israel has intensified its bombardment of south
Beirut while also conducting deadly strikes elsewhere in Lebanon.
Ceasefire talks -
Analysts say Israel's campaign in Lebanon has put it in a position of strength
to reach a deal. On Thursday, Netanyahu told U.S. envoys Amos Hochstein and
Brett McGurk that any deal for a ceasefire with Hezbollah must guarantee
Israel's long-term security. The pair have since left for Washington, said a
source familiar with the matter. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, who also
met the Americans, emphasized "security arrangements" related to Lebanon and
efforts to ensure the return of 101 hostages still held by Hamas in Gaza. A
U.S.-brokered plan reportedly under consideration would see Hezbollah withdraw
30 kilometers (20 miles) north to the northern side of the Litani river, with
Israeli forces pulling back and the Lebanese Army, supported by U.N.
peacekeepers, taking over the border. Lebanon would be responsible for
preventing Hezbollah from rearming itself with imported weapons, and Israel
would retain "its rights under international law to act in self-defense."
Cross-border fire from Lebanon killed three Israelis on Thursday, as well as
four Thai nationals in Metula. Since fighting in Lebanon escalated on September
23, after nearly a year of tit-for-tat exchanges which Hezbollah said were in
support of Hamas, the war has killed at least 1,829 people in Lebanon, according
to an AFP tally of health ministry figures.
Israel's military says 37 soldiers have been killed in Lebanon since ground
operations began on September 30. The NNA said Israeli strikes on the eastern
city of Baalbek on Thursday left six dead and destroyed homes. Six others were
killed in raids on Maqneh.
Gaza talks -
Hezbollah's new leader Sheikh Naim Qassem -- who took over after Israel killed
his predecessor Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah -- has not explicitly linked a Lebanon
ceasefire to an end to fighting in Gaza, the group's previous position. "If the
Israelis decide that they want to stop the aggression, we say we accept, but
under the conditions that we see as appropriate and suitable," he said this week
in his first speech as leader. U.S., Egyptian and Qatari mediators have long
been trying to secure a truce and hostage-prisoner exchange in Israel's war in
Gaza. Mediators seeking to broker a ceasefire are expected to propose a truce of
"less than a month" to the Palestinian group Hamas, a source with knowledge of
the talks has told AFP. The proposal involves exchanging Israeli hostages for
Palestinians in Israeli prisons and increasing aid to the territory, the source
added.
But on Thursday, senior Hamas official Taher al-Nounou reiterated that the group
rejected a short-term pause. "Hamas supports a permanent end to the war, not a
temporary one," Nounou said.
Some defiant south Lebanese stay put in face of Israeli
fire
Agence France Presse/November 01/2024
Cattle farmer Khairallah Yaacoub refused to leave south Lebanon despite a year
of Hezbollah-Israel clashes. When full-scale war erupted, he and four others
were stranded in their ruined border village. Yaacoub is among a handful of
villagers in the war-battered south who have tried to stay put despite the
Israeli onslaught. He finally fled Houla village only after being wounded by
shrapnel and losing half of his 16-strong herd to Israeli strikes. On October
19, three weeks into Israel's escalated war against Hezbollah, members of a U.N.
peacekeeping force in Lebanon rescued three of Houla's five remaining residents
including Yaacoub. They had been marooned by constant bombardment and with
rubble-strewn access roads all but unpassable. The two of the five remaining had
no mobile phones and could not be located. "I wanted to stay with the cows, my
livelihood. But in the end I had to leave them too because I was injured,"
Yaacoub, 55, told AFP. With no immediate access to a hospital, he had to remove
the shrapnel himself using a knife to cauterize his wound and then apply herbal
medicine to it. "It was difficult for me to leave my house because warplanes
were constantly circling above our heads and bombing around us," he said,
describing weeks of sleepless nights amid intense strikes. Now north of Beirut,
Yaacoub said he dreams of returning home. "When I arrived in Beirut, I wished
I'd died in Houla and never left," he said. "If there's a ceasefire, I will
return to Houla that very night. I'm very attached to the village."
'Smoke shisha'
On September 23, Israel began an air campaign mainly targeting Hezbollah
strongholds and later launched ground incursions. According to an AFP tally of
health ministry figures, at least 1,829 people have been killed inside Lebanon
since then. The war has displaced at least 1.3 million people, more than 800,000
of them inside the country, the United Nations migration agency says. Scarred by
memories of Israel's occupation of south Lebanon, a few villagers have refused
to leave, fearing they might never see their hometowns again. On October 22,
U.N. peacekeepers evacuated two elderly sisters, the last residents of the
border village of Qawzah, to the nearby Christian village of Rmeish. Christian
and Druze-majority areas have remained relatively safe, with Israel mostly
targeting Shiite-majority areas where Hezbollah holds sway. AFP contacted half a
dozen mayors, from the coastal town of Naqoura near the border to Qana, about 20
kilometers (12 miles) away, who said villages and towns had been emptied. But
just a few kilometers north of Qana, Abu Fadi, 80, said he is refusing to leave
Tayr Debba, a village Israel has repeatedly attacked. "Since 1978, every time
there's an invasion I come back to the village," said the retired south Beirut
policeman who now runs a coffee stall in the shade of an olive tree. "I smoke my
shisha and stay put. I'm not scared."
'No torture'
About 5,000 people used to live in Tayr Debba near the main southern city of
Tyre, but now only a handful remain, he said. "About 10 houses in our
neighborhood alone were damaged, with most completely levelled," Fadi said. "I
have long been attached to this house and land."
But he "felt relieved" his nine children and 60 grandchildren -- who repeatedly
beg him to leave -- were safe. Bombs are not the only danger southern Lebanese
face. Israeli soldiers detained a man and a nun in two border villages before
releasing them, a Lebanese security official told AFP.
Ihab Serhan, in his sixties, lived with his cat and two dogs in Kfar Kila until
soldiers stormed the village and took him to Israel for questioning. "It was a
pain, but at least there was no torture," he told AFP. He was released about 10
days later and questioned again by the Lebanese Army before being freed, he
said. A strike destroyed his car, stranding him without power, water or
communications as his village became a battlefield. "I was stubborn. I didn't
want to leave my home," Serhan said. His late father dreamt of growing old in
the village, but died before Israel ended its occupation of the south in 2000,
and did not return. Now the family home has been destroyed. "I don't know what
happened to my animals. Not a single house was left standing in Kfar Kila,"
Serhan said.
Lebanese 'orphaned of their land' as Israel blows up homes
Agence France Presse/November 01/2024
The news came by video. Law professor Ali Mourad discovered that Israel had
dynamited his family's south Lebanon home only after footage of the operation
was sent to his phone. "A friend from the village sent me the video, telling me
to make sure my dad doesn't see it," Mourad, 43, told AFP. "But when he got the
news, he stayed strong."The aerial footage shows simultaneous explosions rock a
cluster of buildings on a lush hill. Mourad's home in Aitroun village, less than
a kilometer from the border, is seen crumpling in a cloud of grey dust. His
father, an 83-year-old pediatrician, had his medical practice in the building.
He had lived there with his family since shortly after Israel's 22-year
occupation of southern Lebanon ended in 2000. The family fled the region again
after the Israel-Hezbollah war erupted on September 23 after a year of
cross-border fire that began with the Gaza war. South Lebanon, a Hezbollah
stronghold, has since been pummeled by Israeli strikes. Hezbollah says it is
battling Israeli forces at close range in border villages after a ground
invasion began last month. For the first 20 years of his life, Mourad could not
step foot in Aitroun because of the Israeli occupation. He wants his two
children to have "a connection to their land," but fears the war could upend any
remaining ties. "I fear my children will be orphaned of their land, as I was in
the past," he said. "Returning is my right, a duty in my ancestors' memory, and
for the future of my children."
'Die a second time'
According to Lebanon's official National News Agency, Israeli troops dynamited
buildings in at least seven border villages last month. Israel's Channel 12
broadcast footage appearing to show one of its presenters blow up a building
while embedded with soldiers in the village of Aita al-Shaab.
On October 26, the NNA said Israel "blew up and destroyed houses... in the
village of Adaisseh."That day, Israel's military said 400 tons of explosives
detonated in a Hezbollah tunnel, which it said was more than 1.5 kilometers
(around a mile) long. It is in Adaisseh that Lubnan Baalbaki fears he may have
lost the mausoleum where his mother and father, the late painter Abdel-Hamid
Baalbaki, are buried. Their tomb is in the garden of their home, which was
levelled in the blasts. Baalbaki, 43, bought satellite images to keep an eye on
the house which had been designed by his father, in polished white stone and
clay tiles. But videos circulating online later showed it had been blown up.
Lubnan has not yet found out whether the mausoleum was also damaged, adding that
this was his "greatest fear." It would be like his parents "dying for a second
time," he said. His Adaisseh home had a 2,000-book library and around 20
original artworks, including paintings by his father, he said. His father had
spent his life savings from his job as a university professor to build the home.
The family had preserved "his desk, his palettes, his brushes, just as he left
them before he died," Baalbaki told AFP. A painting he had been working on was
still on an easel. Losing the house filled him with "so much sadness" because
"it was a project we'd grown up with since childhood that greatly influenced us,
pushing us to embrace art and the love of beauty."
'War crime' -
Lebanon's National Human Rights Commission has said "the ongoing destruction
campaign carried out by the Israeli army in southern Lebanon is a war
crime."Between October 2023 and October 2024, locations "were wantonly and
systematically destroyed in at least eight Lebanese villages," it said, basing
its findings on satellite images and videos shared on social media by Israeli
soldiers. Israel's military used "air strikes, bulldozers, and manually
controlled explosions" to level entire neighborhoods -- homes, schools, mosques,
churches, shrines, and archaeological sites, the commission said. Lebanese
rights group Legal Agenda said blasts in Mhaibib "destroyed the bulk" of the
hilltop village, "including at least 92 buildings of civilian homes and
facilities." "You can't blow up an entire village because you have a military
target," said Hussein Chaabane, an investigative journalist with the group.
International law "prohibits attacking civilian objects," he said. Should
civilian objects be targeted, "the principle of proportionality should be
respected, and here it is being violated."
WHO 'deeply concerned' about 'rising attacks' on Lebanon
healthcare
Agence France Presse/November 01/2024
The World Health Organization said Friday it was deeply concerned about Israeli
attacks hitting healthcare workers and facilities in Lebanon, in its war against
Hezbollah. "We're deeply concerned about the rising attacks on health workers
and facilities in Lebanon. The numbers are really quite shocking. There have
been 102 deaths, 83 injured" in such attacks, WHO spokeswoman Margaret Harris
told a media briefing in Geneva. The WHO records attacks on healthcare but does
not attribute blame. "Overall we've had 55 attacks verified, but the Ministry of
Health is reporting that there are much higher numbers, as many workers are
being killed and injured while off duty -- and this matters because health
systems are already overstretched," said Harris. "Health workers are already
overworked and displaced. So we are continuing to lose health workers at the
very time when they are needed most. "We are again and again and again
emphasizing that healthcare is not a target; health workers are not a target.
"Everybody is struggling to get the level of healthcare they need because of the
continuing attacks on the health system -- and the health system was already
under enormous pressure," she said, due to the underlying economic conditions in
the country, and the challenge of getting fuel to keep the hospital generators
going. "Accessing health care is a real struggle for everyone in Lebanon, but of
course it's a greater struggle in the areas where the hospitals have been
attacked," said Harris. "The hospitals are overwhelmed by casualties," with the
system "carrying an enormous burden", she added. Since fighting in Lebanon
escalated on September 23, after nearly a year of tit-for-tat exchanges which
Hezbollah said were in support of Hamas, the war has killed at least 1,829
people in Lebanon, according to an AFP tally of health ministry figures.
Cross-border fire from Lebanon killed seven people in Israel on Thursday,
including four Thai nationals. Israel's military says 37 soldiers have been
killed in Lebanon since ground operations began on September 30.
UN envoy says war puts Lebanon heritage sites 'in deep
peril'
Agence France Presse/November 01/2024
The U.N.'s special coordinator for Lebanon on Friday said the country's cultural
heritage was being endangered by Israeli strikes on the ancient Lebanese cities
of Tyre and Baalbek, home to UNESCO-designated Roman ruins. "Ancient Phoenician
cities steeped in history are in deep peril of being left in ruins," Jeanine
Hennis-Plasschaert said in a social media post, adding that "Lebanon's cultural
heritage must not become yet another casualty in this devastating conflict."
UN aid agency says there's a new wave of displacement from
Dahieh after Israeli strikes
Associated Press/November 01/2024
The U.N. humanitarian aid coordination agency is pointing to a new “wave of
displacement” in Beirut's southern suburbs after the Israeli army issued new
orders for people to leave. Spokesman Jens Laerke of the Office for the
Coordination of Humanitarian Aid, citing local officials, says the new
displacement orders for the capital’s southern suburbs were followed shortly
afterward by heavy airstrikes. He told reporters in Geneva that other recent
displacement orders from the Israeli military spurred an estimated 50,000 people
to leave the eastern city of Baalbek and head mostly toward the northern Bekaa
Valley. “We are working to access civilians who remain in hard to reach areas.
To date, 15 convoys have successfully been organized to reach areas” in four
Lebanese cities, including Baalbek, Laerke said. “But the insecurity has an
impact on what we can do.” During the same briefing, World Health Organization
spokeswoman Margaret Harris expressed concerns about the malnutrition situation
in Gaza. “We’ve not really seen any food aid into north Gaza since the 2nd of
October. People are running out of ways to cope. The food systems have
collapsed,” she said. “The opportunity to care for those who are at the most
critical stage is not there anymore.”
Polarization of journalism rising amid Israel attacking, killing
media workers
ZAIRA LAKHPATWALA/Arab News/November 01, 2024
DUBAI: On Oct. 25, an airstrike in south Lebanon killed Al-Mayadeen TV’s camera
operator Ghassan Najjar, broadcast engineer Mohammed Reda, and Hezbollah-owned
Al-Manar TV’s camera operator Wissam Qassem. It also injured several others
including camera operator Hassan Hoteit and assistant camera operator Zakaria
Fadel of the media production company Isol. Other journalists hurt were
photographer Hassan Hoteit from Al-Qahera channel, and Youmna Fawaz, a
correspondent for MTV, according to media reports. The Israeli army said the
strike, which hit a compound housing 18 journalists from multiple media outlets,
targeted Hezbollah militants; however, many believe it was a planned attack on
journalists. Lebanon’s Prime Minister Najib Mikati said the attack was
deliberate and both he and Information Minister Ziad Makary labelled it a war
crime. “The Israeli enemy waited for the journalists’ nighttime break to betray
them in their sleep ... This is an assassination, after monitoring and tracking,
with prior planning and design, as there were 18 journalists there representing
seven media institutions. This is a war crime,” Makary said in a post on X. The
Committee to Protect Journalists said it was appalled by the attack, and called
for an independent investigation and for the perpetrators to be held to account.
The CPJ is “deeply outraged by yet another deadly Israeli airstrike on
journalists,” said its program director Carlos Martinez de la Serna, adding that
“deliberately targeting journalists is a war crime under international law.”“I
used to go to conflict zones in the past and journalists were received by all
parties with open arms,” said Mohamad Chebaro, a British-Lebanese journalist
with over 25 years of experience covering war, terrorism, defense, current
affairs and diplomacy. But “I have been increasingly witnessing the polarization
of journalism” by companies or political parties wherein journalists are seen as
being “with or against” entities — whether that is a corporation or a country,
he told Arab News. Chebaro explained that “warring parties” feel the need to
have their own “media machine,” which makes independent journalism a rare
concept. And so “killing the messenger has become easy for every party trying to
control the narrative of every conflict.”He added: “Lebanon is no different than
Gaza. Gaza is no different than Syria. And Syria is no different than Iran
before it.”
On Monday, Lebanon submitted a complaint to the Security Council “regarding the
latest Israeli attacks that targeted journalists and media facilities in Hasbaya
in south Lebanon, and the Ouzai area” in Beirut’s southern suburbs, according to
the Foreign Ministry on X. “The repeated Israeli targeting of media crews is a
war crime,” and Israel must be “held to account and punished,” the statement
added. Over 400 media workers and journalists from international news
organizations have condemned Israel’s attacks on Palestinian journalists in Gaza
in a letter released on Oct. 30. The letter also addresses the escalation of
attacks on journalists in Lebanon. It called for the immediate medical
evacuations of all injured journalists, protection of those who remain, and fair
reporting on Gaza and the condition of Palestinian media workers there. “We
affirm that no one is more qualified to report and deliver the news from Gaza
than local journalists, and it is the professional and personal duty of all
journalists and media institutions to ensure their protection,” the letter
added. The attack on journalists is in many ways an attack on journalism and the
truth, Chebaro said. He added: “Human beings are not respected in the theater of
war anymore. There is a breakdown of the respect and the sanctity of the job of
a journalist. “And unfortunately, we have gone away from the old ethos of
looking at a journalist as an independent informing voice.”As of Oct. 31, the
CPJ’s preliminary investigations showed at least 134 journalists and media
workers were among those killed in Gaza, the West Bank, Israel, and Lebanon
since Oct. 7, 2023. This makes it the deadliest period for journalists since the
CPJ began gathering data in 1992.
The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on November
01-02/2024
47 Palestinians killed overnight in Israeli strikes in central Gaza,
Palestinian news agency says
REUTERS/November 01, 2024
GAZA: Forty seven Palestinians were killed and dozens injured, most of them
children and women, in overnight Israeli bombardment of the city of Deir Al-Balah,
the Nuseirat camp and the town of Al-Zawayda in the central Gaza Strip, the
Palestinian news agency WAFA reported on Friday. The Gaza war began after Hamas-led
militants attacked Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, killing some 1,200 people and taking
251 hostages back to Gaza, according to Israeli tallies. Israel’s subsequent
assault on Gaza has killed more than 43,000 Palestinians and reduced most of the
enclave to rubble, Palestinian authorities say. At least 46 Palestinians were
killed in Israeli military strikes across the Gaza Strip on Thursday, mostly in
the north where one attack hit a hospital, torching medical supplies and
disrupting operations, the enclave’s health officials said. Israel’s military
has accused the Palestinian militant group Hamas of using Kamal Adwan Hospital
in Beit Lahiya for military purposes and said “dozens of terrorists” have been
hiding there. Health officials and Hamas deny the assertion. The health ministry
in the Gaza Strip called for all international bodies “to protect hospitals and
medical staff from the brutality of the (Israeli) occupation.”Medical charity
Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) said on Thursday that one of its doctors at the
hospital, Mohammed Obeid, had been detained last Saturday by Israeli forces. It
called for the protection of him and all medical staff who “are facing horrific
violence as they try to provide care.”
Delayed Gaza polio vaccinations to resume on Saturday,
agencies say
REUTERS/November 01, 2024
GAZA: The third phase of a delayed polio vaccination campaign in Gaza will begin
on Saturday, aid organizations said on Friday, after the rollout was derailed by
Israeli bombardments, mass displacement and lack of access. The polio campaign
began on Sept. 1 after the World Health Organization (WHO) confirmed in August
that a baby was partially paralyzed by the type 2 polio virus, the first such
case in the territory in 25 years. The humanitarian pause to conduct the
campaign had been agreed but WHO and the UN children’s agency UNICEF said the
area covered by the agreement had been substantially reduced from the previous
pause in September, and would now cover only Gaza City. The final phase of the
campaign had aimed to reach an estimated 119,000 children under 10 years old in
northern Gaza with a second dose of novel oral polio vaccine type 2 (nOPV2).
However, achieving this target is now unlikely due to access constraints, the
statement said. COGAT, the Israeli army’s Palestinian civilian affairs agency,
said it was helping to coordinate the three-day campaign and once it was
complete, there would be an assessment to decide whether the schedule would be
extended. “This coordination will ensure that the population can safely reach
medical centers where the vaccines will be administered,” it said in a
statement.
Israel plans to use lasers to shoot down incoming
missiles
Nadeen Ebrahim, CNN/November 01/2024
Israel expects its “Iron Beam” laser defense system to be operational within one
year, saying it will bring “a new era of warfare” as it engages in a war of
drones and missiles with Iran and its regional partners. The Jewish state spent
more than $500 million on deals this week with Israeli developers Rafael
Advanced Defense Systems, architect of Israel’s Iron Dome, and Elbit Systems to
expand production of the shield. Dubbed the Iron Beam, the shield aims to use
high-power lasers to counter an array of projectiles, including missiles,
drones, rockets and mortars, Israel’s defense ministry said this week. “It
heralds the beginning of a new era in warfare,” Eyal Zamir, director general of
the defense ministry, said in a statement this week. “The initial capability of
the ground-based laser system… is expected to enter operational service within
one year,” he said. Israel first unveiled a prototype of the Iron Beam in 2021
and has since been working to get it up and running. The defense ministry’s
comments come as Israel presses on with wars in Gaza and Lebanon, and after its
military engaged twice in direct missile attacks with Iran. Since Israel began
its war on Hamas in Gaza last year, following the October 7 attack, it has also
been fighting a war with the Iran-backed “Axis of Resistance” across Lebanon,
Yemen, Syria and Iraq. Iran and its partners have been seeking to overwhelm
Israel’s Iron Dome by pelting it with various projectiles, from rockets and
drones to mortars and ballistic missiles, experts previously said. From southern
Lebanon, where Israel is now waging a ground war, Hezbollah’s rockets have
reached deep inside Israel. Earlier this month, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu’s beachside home in the coastal city of Caesarea was damaged in a
drone strike claimed by the Shiite Lebanese group. One of the three drones that
were launched evaded Israel’s aerial defense system. Experts say the Iron Beam
could be an added layer of defense for Israel, both in terms of effectiveness
and cost.
How does it work?
The system uses a high-power laser that is stationed on the ground. With a range
of hundreds of meters to several kilometers, the laser heats up the target’s
shell in vulnerable areas, including its engine or warhead, until the projectile
collapses. This is different to Israel’s traditional means of destroying
missiles and rockets, where radar is used to identify an incoming threat and
then an interceptor missile is fired to destroy the projectile midair. Compared
to the Iron Dome, a laser shield would be cheaper, faster and more effective,
experts said. Each Iron Dome interception missile is estimated to cost
approximately $50,000, if not more, according to experts. Israel fires two
missiles per interception, Yehoshua Kalisky, a senior researcher the Institute
for National Security Studies (INSS) in Tel Aviv, told CNN. Israel has been
intercepting projectiles almost daily since the war with its northern neighbor
began. Just on Tuesday, some 50 projectiles crossed from southern Lebanon into
Israeli territory, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said, adding that some were
intercepted and others weren’t. Rafael Advanced Defense Systems, which is
helping produce the Iron Beam, said that a laser defense system has “almost zero
cost per interception.” In 2022, former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said each
laser-based interception was expected to cost just $2. “Economics is obviously
the big point,” Sascha Bruchmann, a visiting research fellow for defense and
military analysis at the London-based International Institute for Strategic
Studies (IISS) said, told CNN. “You won’t ruin the defense budget.”
The laser system would be most effective against drones, experts said, which
Israel’s Iron Dome has repeatedly failed to intercept. While Israel’s Iron Dome
does intercept and destroy most projectiles, it is primarily designed to counter
rockets and missiles, not drones. Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) are small,
light and have a low radar signature, which means Israel’s radar systems will
not always detect them the way they detect missiles, which are bigger, experts
said. Drones also don’t always have a set destination and may change direction
mid-travel.The laser system will be very effective against drones, Kalisky said.
The laser will be able to effectively “heat and destroy” drones and UAVs.
Who else has it?
Other governments have experimented with different types of laser systems. The
US Navy has tested high-energy laser weapons that can destroy aircraft
mid-flight and the United Kingdom has recently showcased a laser-energy weapon
called DragonFire that can be used against aerial threats. The Pentagon has also
said that China and Russia are developing lasers that could target satellites.
It is unclear if Iran has developed a laser defense system of its own. In 2022,
Iran said it was “capable of manufacturing laser weapons to defend… sensitive
regions,” state media said.
Iran is, however, suspected to have the Chinese-made “Silent Hunter” laser
weapon, experts said, adding that the laser is not as high-powered as the ones
designed for the Iron Beam.
Will it really be a gamechanger?
An Israeli Iron Beam would still have its drawbacks. The laser system would not
operate well in cloudy, rainy or hazy weather, experts said, adding that this
decreases the laser’s ability to pass through the atmosphere and reach its
target. The system would also require great amounts of power to keep it running.
The project’s aspirations and expected timeframe also remain unclear. One of the
main problems was that to meet their aspirations with this laser technology,
governments always needed billions of dollars and decades of research, Bruchmann
said. The world is yet to see if Israel “actually cracked the code this time,”
and can operate it by next year, he said. Kalisky of the INSS said that, while
it is unclear if the Iron Beam will indeed be a “gamechanger” for Israel, it
will still be “another layer of defense,” adding that it will likely be most
effective against drones and short-range rockets and missiles. It may not be as
effective against ballistic missiles, he said, which Israel’s Arrow 2 and Arrow
3 interceptors have traditionally thwarted. Experts say the Iron Beam could also
act as a deterrent to further attacks by Iran or its proxies. Last month, The
New York Times reported that Hamas was keen to carry out its October 7 attack by
the end of 2023, fearing Israel would start deploying its laser system, which
would have been more effective against Hamas rockets. The newspaper was citing
documents seized by the Israeli military and obtained by the Times. “Iran and
its proxies (may) calculate that this would be, from their point of view, a
gamechanger,” Bruchmann said, “that it would seriously devalue the tens or
hundreds of thousands of missiles they are building up as a strategic arsenal to
deter Israel.”
Iran adviser hints at expansion of missile range, nuclear doctrine review after
Israel strikes
Reuters/November 01/2024
Kamal Kharrazi, an adviser to Iran's supreme leader, said on Friday that Tehran
is likely to increase the range of its ballistic missiles and possibly review
its nuclear doctrine, amid growing tensions with arch-enemy Israel and
tit-for-tat missile and airstrikes. Asked by Lebanon-based pro-Iran broadcaster
Al-Mayadeen whether Iran was ready if conflict were to expand after the recent
strikes, Kharrazi said Iran was likely to up the range of its ballistic missiles
beyond a self-imposed limit of 2,000 km (1,250 miles). He said that although
Iran has the technical capability to produce nuclear weapons, it is currently
held back by a fatwa, or religious decree, issued in the early 2000s by Supreme
Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Ayatollah Khamenei, who has the last say on
Tehran’s nuclear programme, banned the development of nuclear weapons in that
fatwa. The Islamic Republic has long denied that it is trying to build nuclear
weapons and insists its nuclear work is solely for peaceful purposes. Iranian
officials have said Tehran has no need to increase the range of its ballistic
missiles beyond 2,000 km as they could already reach U.S. forces stationed in
the region. Kharrazi said Iran would respond to Israel at a time and in a manner
of its choosing in retaliation for Israel's airstrikes near Tehran and other
areas last week that followed an Iranian missile barrage on Oct. 1.
US is sending $425 million in military assistance to Ukraine
Tara Copp/WASHINGTON (AP)/November 01/2024
The Biden administration announced Friday it was sending an additional $425
million in military assistance to Ukraine as Kyiv prepares to face Russian
forces augmented by more than 10,000 North Korean troops. Defense Secretary
Lloyd Austin had said more aid was coming, and soon, during his visit to Kyiv
last week. This aid package includes weapons that will be pulled from existing
U.S. stockpiles, including air defense interceptors for National Advanced
Surface-to-Air Missile Systems, munitions for High Mobility Artillery Rocket
Systems and 155 mm artillery, and armored vehicles and anti-tank weapons.
Ukraine's eastern cities continue to face an onslaught of Russian missile
strikes, including one on Kharkiv by a 500-kilogram (1,100-pound) glide bomb.
The attack Thursday hit an apartment complex, killing three and injuring scores.
In addition, Ukraine is facing new uncertainty as waves of North Korean soldiers
deployed to Russia have arrived near Ukraine’s border and are preparing to join
the fight against Ukrainian troops in coming days. Russia has increasingly used
powerful glide bombs to pummel Ukrainian positions along the 1,000-kilometer
(600-mile) line of contact and strike cities dozens of kilometers (miles) from
the front line. Kharkiv, a city of 1.1 million, is about 30 kilometers (less
than 20 miles) from the border. The aid package announced Friday brings the
total amount of military assistance the U.S. has provided Ukraine since Russia
invaded in February 2022 to $60.4 billion.
Analysis-Iran braces for Trump victory, fearing more Israeli strikes, Western
sanctions
Samia Nakhoul and Parisa Hafezi/Reuters/November 01/ 2024
DUBAI (Reuters) - Iran’s leadership and allies are bracing for what they would
regard as a dreadful outcome of the imminent U.S. presidential election: A
return to power of Donald Trump. Opinion polls suggest the Republican Trump and
Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris remain locked in a close contest. But
Iranian leaders and their regional allies in Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen are
concerned that Trump could well triumph on Nov. 5 and this could spell more
trouble for them. Iran's main concern is the potential for Trump to empower
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to strike Iran's nuclear sites,
conduct targeted assassinations and reimpose his "maximum pressure policy"
through heightened sanctions on their oil industry, according to Iranian, Arab
and Western officials. They anticipate that Trump, who was president in 2017-21,
will exert utmost pressure on Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to
cave in by accepting a nuclear containment deal on terms set by himself and
Israel. This potential change in U.S. leadership could have far-reaching
implications for the Middle East balance of power, and might reshape Iran's
foreign policy and economic prospects. Analysts argue that whether the next U.S.
administration is led by Harris or Trump, Iran will lack the leverage it once
held - largely due to Israel's year-old military campaign aimed at degrading the
Islamic Republic's armed proxies, including Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in
Lebanon. However, Trump's stance is perceived as more detrimental to Iran due to
his more automatic support for Israel, they added. "Trump will either put very
tough conditions on Iran or let Israel carry out targeted strikes on its nuclear
facilities. He is fully endorsing a military action against Iran," Abdelaziz al-Sagher,
head of the Gulf Research Center think-tank, said. "It's Netanyahu's dream day
to have Trump back in the White House," he told Reuters.
POISON CHALICE?
A senior Iranian official who declined to be named told Reuters Tehran was
"prepared for all scenarios. We have (for decades) consistently found ways to
export oil, bypassing harsh U.S. sanctions..., and have strengthened our ties
with the rest of the world no matter who was in the White House."But another
Iranian official said a Trump victory would be "a nightmare. He will raise
pressure on Iran to please Israel..., make sure oil sanctions are fully
enforced. If so, (our) establishment will be economically paralysed.”In an
election speech in October, Trump stated his unwillingness to go to war with
Iran, but said Israel should "hit the Iranian nuclear first and worry about the
rest later", in response to Iran's missile attack on Israel on Oct. 1. Israel
retaliated with airstrikes on Iranian military targets, especially missile
production sites, on Oct. 26. Iran's choices are limited going forward, analysts
say.
“The reality is: Trump is going to support Netanyahu and give him the green
light to do whatever he wants,” said Hassan Hassan, an author and researcher on
Islamic groups. “Trump is much worse (than Harris) for Iran."Hassan noted that
Washington has delegated a substantial share of responsibility to Israel in the
conflict with Iran and its proxies, with Israel leading the way. “The U.S. is
involved enough in that it’s backing Israel, may be more so than before. “This
time it's just things are really bad for Iran. Iran is seen as a problem by both
Republicans and Democrats.” During her campaign, Harris called Iran a
"dangerous" and "destabilising" force in the Middle East and said the U.S. was
committed to Israel's security. She said the U.S. would work with allies to
disrupt Iran's "aggressive behaviour". But Trump's re-election would be a
"poisoned chalice", for Khamenei, according to two regional officials. If he
were to reinstate stringent sanctions, Khamenei may be forced to negotiate and
accept a nuclear pact more favourable to U.S. and Israeli term to preserve
theocratic rule in Iran, which is facing growing foreign pressure and has been
buffeted by bouts of mass protest at home in recent years. A U.S.-Saudi defence
pact tied to Riyadh's establishing diplomatic relations with Israel, now in its
final negotiating stages, poses a significant challenge to Khamenei too. This
alliance threatens to shift the regional balance of power by creating a more
unified front against Iran, impacting its geopolitical standing and strategy in
the Middle East.
NEW ARCHITECTURE
Hassan said recent attacks on Iran and its allies have been widely perceived as
a significant success for Israel. They offered insights into what a limited
strike on Iran might look like, setting a precedent and altering assumptions
that military action on Iran would inevitably spark a wider Middle East war. A
senior Arab security official said that Tehran could "no longer brandish its
influence through its armed proxies" in the wake of Israel's deadly strikes on
Hezbollah and Hamas leaders. For its own part, Iran has every reason to fear
another Trump term. It was Trump who in 2018 unilaterally pulled the U.S. out of
Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal with world powers and ordered the killing of Qassem
Soleimani, Khamenei's right-hand man and mastermind of overseas attacks on U.S.
and allied interests. Trump also imposed punitive sanctions targeting Iran’s oil
export revenues and international banking transactions, which led to extreme
economic hardship and exacerbated public discontent in the Islamic Republic. He
frequently said during his presidential campaign that President Joe Biden's
policy of not rigorously enforcing oil export sanctions has weakened Washington
and emboldened Tehran, allowing it to sell oil, accumulate cash and expand its
nuclear pursuits and influence through armed militias. In March, he told
Israel's Hayom newspaper in an interview that Iran could have a nuclear weapon
in 35 days and that Israel - which deems Iran's nuclear activity an existential
threat though is widely thought to have the region's only nuclear arms - was in
a "very treacherous and dangerous neighbourhood". An Arab government adviser
noted that Tehran recognises there is a "new architecture in the making", but
also that Trump despite his tough rhetoric realises there is no alternative to a
deal with Iran given its accelerated uranium enrichment program. "Trump might
aim for a new nuclear agreement, he could say I tore up the 2015 agreement
because it was incomplete and replace it with a long-lasting agreement, touting
it to 'make America great again' and preserve U.S. interests," the adviser said.
As the 2015 deal has eroded over the years, Iran has escalated the level of
fissile purity in enriched uranium, cutting the time it would need to build an
atom bomb if it chose to, though it denies wanting to. Iran Online, a state-run
news website, stated that when Trump left office, Iran was capping enrichment at
3.67 percent under the deal, far below the 90 percent of weapons grade. Now,
Iran has "enriched uranium to 60% with IR-6 advanced centrifuges" and could
achieve nuclear weapons capability "within a few weeks ... Completing the
nuclear deterrence cycle is Iran's greatest trump card against Trump," it said.
Arab and Western officials warn that the more Iran hints it is nearing
development of an atom bomb, the more they incite the need for Israel to strike.
"If Trump reassumes power, he will support Israeli plans to strike Iranian
nuclear facilities,” a Western official said.
Pentagon bolsters the US presence in the Middle East
with bomber aircraft and warships
TARA COPP and LOLITA C. BALDOR/Associated Press/November 1, 2024
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin is sending additional bomber aircraft and Navy
warships to the Middle East to bolster the U.S. presence in the region as an
aircraft carrier and its warships are preparing to leave, U.S. officials said
Friday. Austin ordered several B-52 Stratofortress bomber aircraft, tanker
aircraft and Navy destroyers to deploy to the Middle East, according to four
U.S. and defense officials who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss troop
movements. The moves come at a critical time as Israel's wars with Hamas in Gaza
and Hezbollah in Lebanon rage, even as officials press for a cease-fire. The
U.S. has repeatedly said it will defend Israel and continue to protect American
and allied presence in the region, including from Yemen-based Houthi attacks
against ships in the Red Sea. The long-range nuclear-capable B-52 bomber has
been repeatedly deployed to the Middle East in pointed warnings to Iran and it
is the second time this month that strategic U.S. bombers will be used to
bolster U.S. defenses in the region. Earlier this month, B-2 stealth bombers
were used to strike underground Houthi targets in Yemen. Officials did not
provide specific number of aircraft and ships that will move into the region.
There have been as many as 43,000 U.S. forces in the region recently. According
to a U.S. official, the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier and the three Navy
destroyers in its strike group are scheduled to leave the Middle East by
mid-month and return to their home port in San Diego. The Lincoln and two of its
destroyers are now in the Gulf of Oman, and the third destroyer is with two
other warships in the Red Sea. When the Lincoln departs, there will be no
aircraft carrier in the Middle East for a period of time, the official said. To
make up for that gap, Austin is ordering the deployment of other Navy destroyers
to the region. Those destroyers, which are capable of shooting down ballistic
missiles, would come either from the Indo-Pacific region or Europe, the official
said. The shifts are likely to result in an overall decrease in the number of
U.S. troops in the region, largely because an aircraft carrier contains as many
as 5,000 sailors. But the addition of bomber aircraft beefs up U.S. combat
strength. Eventually, it is expected that the USS Harry S. Truman aircraft
carrier and its three warships will move to the Mediterranean Sea, but they
won't get there before the Lincoln departs. The Truman strike group has been in
the North Sea, participating in a NATO military exercise. Officials declined to
say how long there will be a carrier gap in the Middle East. Military commanders
have long argued that the presence of an aircraft carrier strike group, with its
array of fighters jets, surveillance aircraft and heavily armed warships is a
significant deterrent, including against Iran. There are two destroyers and the
Marine amphibious ready group – which includes three ships – in the
Mediterranean Sea.
US election: officials are issued with panic buttons as attacks on ballot boxes
continue
Dafydd Townley, Teaching Fellow in International Security, University of
Portsmouth/The Conversation/November 01/2024
The 2024 US presidential election is proving to be one of the most violent in
recent history. It has already been marked by two assassination attempts on the
former president and Republican candidate, Donald Trump. The Trump campaign has
repeatedly claimed that rhetoric from Kamala Harris prompted the assassination
attempts earlier this year, although there is no evidence to support this. But
Trump has also ratcheted up the atmosphere with his rhetoric naming the
Democrats as “enemies from within”. Warnings about what might happen on election
day are increasingly being made public. In the past few days, US intelligence
experts have warned of extremists targeting election officials and seeking to
disrupt the vote. Across the country, there have been a number of reports of
violence against officials managing the election, and against voting equipment.
Such incidents are prompting worries about voters being scared to go to cast
their ballot, and heightening fears of post-election violence. In Arizona, one
of the key swing states in this year’s election, the Democratic party was forced
to close its office in Phoenix after it had been shot at three times during
September and October. A 60-year-old man, Jeffrey Michael Kelly, was arrested
and charged with terrorism-related offences after allegedly having more than 120
guns and more than 250,000 rounds of ammunition in his home. Last week, Nicholas
Farley, 30, was arrested in Florida for shouting antisemitic and racial slurs at
a woman who was campaigning outside an early voting site in Loxahatchee in Palm
Beach County. Farley faces up to ten years in prison if found guilty on charges
of voter intimidation and election interference. There have also been incidents
of ballot boxes being deliberately destroyed or damaged. In Portland, Oregon,
ballot boxes were the targets of arson, according to reports. Hundreds more
ballots were damaged in another arson case in Washington state. In both cases,
it has been reported that devices used to start the fires had “Free Gaza”
written on them, and that the device in Washington also had “Free Palestine” on
it. According to reports, police are trying to determine whether the perpetrator
was a pro-Palestinian activist, or someone trying to raise tension in what is
already a heated political campaign.
Election staff fearful
While most ballots will be cast peacefully, officials who experienced threats
and violence in 2020 and 2022 have taken steps to ensure their own safety. This
includes performing drills with local law enforcement and liaising with the
Committee for Safe and Secure Elections, experts in law enforcement and employee
protection. In Georgia, another swing state, election workers have been issued
with emergency panic buttons because of safety worries there. Since 2020, 17
states have increased protection for polling station workers and other election
officials. In his testimony to the Senate Committee on Rules and Administration
in March, Isaac Cramer, executive director of South Carolina’s Charleston County
board of voter registration and elections, said the nation’s “polling places
have become battlegrounds for disruptive elements seeking to undermine the
electoral process”. Cramer added that in the June 2022 primaries in South
Carolina, poll managers were harassed and accused of breaking the law by a local
group of individuals. He cited social media posts by the same group that
labelled “good people who were simply carrying out their civic duty to help our
democracy function as ‘enemies’”. Some social media users were discussing how to
destroy ballot boxes and encouraging sabotage, according to a document from the
Department of Homeland Security, obtained by the non-partisan group Property of
the People. It claimed that “election infrastructure remains an attractive
target for some domestic violent extremists”, particularly those “with
election-related grievances who seek to disrupt the democratic process and
election operations”. Other potential targets included party candidates, elected
officials, election workers in states, members of the media reporting on the
election, and judges involved in cases connected to the election. Ninety-two
percent of election officials state they have taken more steps to ensure not
only staff security but the integrity of the impending election than they had
done in the past, according to a Brennan Center for Justice survey.
Post-election violence?
Concerns about election-related violence will not end on November 5. Many voters
in swing states claim they are concerned about violence after the election too.
Around 57% of voters said they were concerned that Trump supporters might turn
to violence if he loses the election, according to a Washington Post-Schar
School poll conducted in the first half of October. And in a recent Times YouGov
poll, 27% of the American adults surveyed believed violence was very or somewhat
likely after the polls close. Around 12% claimed to know someone who might take
up arms if they felt that Trump had been “cheated” of victory, while 5% said
they knew someone who would do the same if Harris claimed a corrupt election. If
what little trust in the US’s political institutions is to remain, a peaceful
transfer of presidential power is essential – to begin the process of national
healing after the last near-decade of spiteful and vindictive politicking. The
upswing of violent attacks in the weeks before the election suggests this may
not be easy to achieve. This article is republished from The Conversation under
a Creative Commons license. Read the original article. Dafydd Townley does not
work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or
organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant
affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources
on November
01-02/2024
Europe's German Problem
Drieu Godefridi/Gatestone Institute/November 01/2024
One might have hoped that the German Right would learn a few lessons from the
Merkel disaster. It has not.The European People's Party (EPP), the largest
political group in the European Parliament -- in which the CDU is a member party
-- appointed Ursula von der Leyen as head of the European Commission. Under her
leadership of the European Union, the economy is collapsing, industry is
disappearing and Islamism is proliferating. Supposedly, all of that does not
matter because Europeans have the Holy Grail: the "energy transition" to a
"zero-carbon" Europe, and more regulations than all the other civilizations
combined.
Unfortunately, that policy is an absolute myth. "Zero-carbon Europe", a physical
impossibility, will never happen. Even if it did, it would make no difference to
the global explosion in CO2 emissions. Europe accounts for just 8% of global CO2
emissions. Even if Europe ceased to exist, it would make little difference to
global CO2 emissions. They would continue to grow on all five continents.
To get Germany and Europe out of this rut, would it not be more constructive for
the CDU to consider governing with the AfD?
The European People's Party (EPP), the largest political group in the European
Parliament -- in which the CDU is a member party -- appointed Ursula von der
Leyen as head of the European Commission. Under her leadership of the European
Union, the economy is collapsing, industry is disappearing and Islamism is
proliferating. Supposedly, all of that does not matter because Europeans have
the Holy Grail: the "energy transition" to a zero-carbon Europe, and more
regulations than all the other civilizations combined. Pictured: Von der Leyen
at the European Parliament in Strasbourg, France, on July 18, 2024.
Today, Germany embraces the ideologies of "green energy" and a zero-carbon
society -- a society that no longer emits CO2. Germans seem serious about
ideology; they seem serious about everything. Once they buy into an ideology, it
might be hard to change their mind.
This is how Chancellor Angela Merkel came to power (2005-2021). Many forget that
she did not emerge from the extreme green left, although judging by her record,
one might think so. She came, in fact, from the CDU/CSU, Germany's
"center-right" party.
Merkel's record is clear: 1) the demographic Islamization of Germany by opening
its doors to a flood of migrants alien to German culture, and apparently with
less than no interest in absorbing it; 2) the subordination of Germany's energy
to Russia, 3) the destruction of Germany's nuclear heritage. If Merkel had have
been an agent of the Russian regime -- which trained her -- she might have acted
no differently.
With Merkel gone, Germany finds itself on an accelerating trajectory of
impoverishment. According to the Süddeutsche Zeitung, the German Economy
Ministry now projects a 0.2% GDP contraction for 2024, reversing its earlier
prediction of 0.3% growth. Germany also faces industrial annihilation.
BASF, for instance, a flagship of Germany's industrial sector since 1865,
symbolizes the nation's manufacturing strength. With nearly 400 production sites
across 80 countries, its heart remains in Ludwigshafen, Germany, where it
operates a vast complex with 200 plants and employs around 39,000 people.
However, this hub has recently become a focal point for BASF's challenges.
Over the past two years, the company has shut down one of its two ammonia units
and idled several others at this location due to their lack of competitiveness,
resulting in the loss of 2,500 jobs, explains Chemical and Engineering News.
BASF also experienced a significant decline in 2023, with sales dropping by
21.1% and adjusted earnings plunging by 60.1%. Adding to these woes, BASF
recently announced plans to cut costs by an additional $1.1 billion in
Ludwigshafen, foreshadowing further job cuts.
As a result of this industrial disaster, the German establishment is confronting
a democratic revolt by growing segments of its people, as shown by the recent
regional elections in Thuringia, Saxony and Brandenburg, which saw the surge of
the right-wing AfD party, which demands that Germany say goodbye to the green
energy myths that are destroying its industry.
One might have hoped that the German right would learn a few lessons from the
Merkel disaster. It has not. Federal polls and the recent regional elections
seem to agree, predicting a disaster for the left, while the center-right CDU/CSU
and the right-wing AfD are on the ascent.
While logic demands that the center-right and the right, which together have a
large majority, govern -- their policy convergences, whether on migration or
energy, are numerous -- the center-right has made clear its absolute refusal to
govern with the AfD, in any way whatsoever.
This is forcing the CDU to consider governing tomorrow with... the Greens,
Europe's most radical extreme left (along with the Belgian and French
environmentalists) -- the party most opposed to the CDU on the issues of
migration, the environment and prioritizing nuclear energy. The movement
responsible for the destruction of Germany's energy resources, and a direct
accomplice of the Russian regime and under its patronage -- the Greens -- who
signed and celebrated the dismantling of Germany's nuclear power stations in the
middle of the war in Ukraine after destruction of Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline;
nuclear power stations that were still operational and could have continued to
produce cheap energy for years.
Is the CDU actually preparing to close the borders with those who want to
abolish borders; to send back unintegrable migrants despite the Greens'
opposition to deportation; to lower energy prices with the authors of the very
policies that caused the prices to explode in the first place, and to counter
Islamism with the help of its most dedicated allies?
This collaboration is being facilitated by a massive ideological convergence:
both the CDU and the Greens believe in the necessity of the Energiewende
("energy transition"). The elimination of fossil fuels and nuclear power is to
be replaced by the "renewable energies" -- mainly wind and solar -- which are
intermittent, often unaffordable and of limited practical use. Wind and solar
are massively impacted by weather conditions. Solar panels produce less on
cloudy days, and wind turbines generate less during calm periods. This
variability makes it difficult to ensure a consistent energy output.
The center-right CDU supports the market economy, the Atlantic alliance and
German industry -- but also adheres to environmentalists' ideology. That view
helps to explain why the European People's Party (EPP), the largest political
group in the European Parliament -- in which the CDU is a member party --
appointed Ursula von der Leyen as head of the European Commission. Under her
leadership of the European Union, the economy is collapsing, industry is
disappearing and Islamism is proliferating. Supposedly, all of that does not
matter because Europeans have the Holy Grail: the "energy transition" to a
"zero-carbon" Europe, and more regulations than all the other civilizations
combined. Unfortunately, that policy is an absolute
myth. "Zero-carbon Europe", a physical impossibility, will never happen. Even if
it did, it would make no difference to the global explosion in CO2 emissions.
Europe accounts for just 8% of global CO2 emissions. Even if Europe ceased to
exist, it would make little difference to global CO2 emissions. They would
continue to grow on all five continents. The destruction of European industry by
the German right would have no effect on the climate -- zero.
Today, with environmentalists touting the "zero-carbon society" and "100%
renewable energy," Germany has locked itself in myths hardly better than the
Lebensraum of the previous century.
Today, as yesterday, these myths risk precipitating the ruin not only of
Germany, but of the whole of Europe.
To get Germany and Europe out of this rut, would it not be more constructive for
the CDU to consider governing with the AfD?
**Drieu Godefridi is a jurist (University Saint-Louis, University of Louvain),
philosopher (University Saint-Louis, University of Louvain) and PhD in legal
theory (Paris IV-Sorbonne). He is an entrepreneur, CEO of a European private
education group and director of PAN Medias Group. He is the author of The Green
Reich (2020).
© 2024 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
Question: “How can I learn to trust that God is in
control?”
GotQuestions.org/November 01/2024
Answer: Before we can learn to trust that God is in control of all of life’s
circumstances, we have to answer four questions: Is God really in control? How
much control does He have? If He is not in complete control, then who/what is?
How can I learn to trust that He is in control and rest in that?
Is God really in control? The concept of the control of God over everything is
called the “sovereignty” of God. Nothing gives us strength and confidence like
an understanding of the sovereignty of God in our lives. God’s sovereignty is
defined as His complete and total independent control over every creature,
event, and circumstance at every moment in history. Subject to none, influenced
by none, absolutely independent, God does what He pleases, only as He pleases,
always as He pleases. God is in complete control of every molecule in the
universe at every moment, and everything that happens is either caused or
allowed by Him for His own perfect purposes.
“The LORD of hosts has sworn, saying, ‘Surely, as I have thought, so it shall
come to pass, And as I have purposed, so it shall stand’” (Isaiah 14:24).
Nothing is random or comes by chance, especially not in the lives of believers.
He “purposed” it. That means to deliberately resolve to do something. God has
resolved to do what He will do, and nothing and no one stands in His way. “I
make known the end from the beginning, from ancient times, what is still to
come. I say: My purpose will stand, and I will do all that I please” (Isaiah
46:10). This is our powerful, purposeful God who is in control of everything.
That should bring us great comfort and help to alleviate our fears.
But exactly how much control does God have? God’s total sovereignty over all
creation directly contradicts the philosophy of open theism, which states that
God doesn’t know what’s going to happen in the future any more than we do, so He
has to constantly be changing His plans and reacting to what the sinful
creatures do as they exercise their free will. God isn’t finding out what’s
going to happen as events unfold. He is continuously, actively running
things—ALL things—here and now. But to think He needs our cooperation, our help,
or the exercise of our free will to bring His plans to pass puts us in control
over Him, which makes us God. Where have we heard that lie before? It’s a rehash
of Satan’s same old lie from the Garden—you shall be like God (Genesis 3:5). Our
wills are only free to the extent that God allows us that freedom and no
farther. “All the peoples of the earth are regarded as nothing. He does as he
pleases with the powers of heaven and the peoples of the earth. No one can hold
back his hand or say to him: ‘What have you done?’” (Daniel 4:35). No one’s free
will trumps the sovereignty of God.
Some people find it appealing to think that Satan has control over a certain
amount of life, that God is constantly revising His plans to accommodate Satan’s
tricks. The book of Job is a clear illustration of just who has the sovereign
power and who doesn’t. Satan came to God and, in effect, said, “Job only serves
you because you protect him.” So God gave Satan permission to do certain things
to Job but no more (Job 1:6–22). Could Satan do more than that? No. God is in
control over Satan and his demons who try to thwart God’s plans at every step.
Satan knew from the Old Testament that God’s plan was for Jesus to come to the
earth, be betrayed, crucified and resurrected, and provide salvation for
millions, and if there was any way to keep that from happening, Satan would have
done it. If just one of the hundreds of prophecies about the Messiah could have
been caused by Satan to fail to come to pass, the whole thing would have
collapsed. But the numbers of independent, “free will” decisions made by
thousands of people were designed by God to bring His plan to pass in exactly
the way He had planned it from the beginning, and Satan couldn’t do a thing
about it. Jesus was “delivered by the determined
purpose and foreknowledge of God” (Acts 2:23). No action by the Romans, the
Pharisees, Judas, or anyone else kept God’s plan from unfolding exactly the way
He purposed it from before the foundation of the world. Ephesians 1 says we were
chosen in Him before the world was even created. We were in the mind of God to
be saved by faith in Christ. That means God knit together Satan’s rebellion,
Adam and Eve’s sin, the fall of the human race, and the death and crucifixion of
Christ—all seemingly terrible events—to save us before He created us. Here is a
perfect example of God working all things together for good (Romans 8:28).
Unlimited in power, unrivalled in majesty, and not thwarted by anything outside
Himself, our God is in complete control of all circumstances, causing or
allowing them for His own good purposes and plans to be fulfilled exactly as He
has foreordained.
Finally, the only way to trust in God’s sovereign control and rest in it is to
know God. Know His attributes, know what He has done in the past, and this
builds confidence in Him. Daniel 11:32b says, “The people who know their God
shall be strong, and carry out great exploits.” Imagine that kind of power in
the hands of an evil, unjust god. Or a god that really doesn’t care about us.
But we can rejoice in our God’s sovereignty, because it is overshadowed by His
goodness, His love, His mercy, His compassion, His faithfulness, and His
holiness.
But we can’t trust someone we don’t know, and there is only one way to know
God—through His Word. There is no magic formula to make us spiritual giants
overnight, no mystical prayer to pray three times a day to mature us, build our
faith, and make us towers of strength and confidence. There is only the Bible,
the single source of power that will change our lives from the inside out. But
it takes effort, diligent, everyday effort, to know the God who controls
everything. If we drink deeply of His Word and let it fill our minds and hearts,
the sovereignty of God will become clear to us, and we will rejoice in it
because we will know intimately and trust completely the God who controls all
things for His perfect purpose.
Trump’s New Islamist Friends
Benjamin Baird/Middle East Forum/October 01/2024
Donald Trump once scorned radical Islamists. Now, he embraces them.
In a bid to win over Muslim voters in a battleground state, former president
Donald Trump has forged an unlikely alliance with a Michigan mayor who leads an
all-Muslim city council located within Detroit. Once consumed with hatred of
“Islamic radicalism,” Trump called in 2015 for a “total and complete shutdown”
of Muslim immigration to the U.S.; now he supports that radicalism.
Who is Mayor Ameer Ghalib? A 44-year-old Yemeni-American and self-described
conservative Democrat, he works part-time as the mayor of Hamtramck, earning
$6,500 annually. Following a pair of meetings with the former president in
September, he quoted Trump calling him “the greatest mayor in the whole world.”
Hamtramck’s blurring of mosque and state, its leaders’ obsession with Israel,
and the city’s hostility towards gays reflect the Islamist ideology that Trump
previously considered an imminent threat, or a “Trojan horse.”
Ghalib’s long-deleted Arabic-language social media posts, archived in
screenshots and professionally translated, point to a bigoted and corrupt
politician who owes his political fortunes to the city’s religious hardliners.
He has transformed Hamtramck into a unique stronghold of radical Islam. In the
course of doing so, Ghalib survived a train of scandals involving bigotry aimed
at African-Americans, Christians, Jews, and gays. The mayor even implicated
himself in apparent voter fraud. In 2020, Ghalib posted an offensive meme
mocking black justice demonstrators and depicting African-Americans as
alcoholics and looters in the aftermath of the George Floyd protests. In the
same thread, he “liked” comments referring to Black people as “animal and
inhuman.”
Ghalib has often accused Arab world leaders of secretly “becoming Jewish,” and
he endorsed a post referring to Jews as “monkeys” who levy taxes on “the air we
breathe.” His role models include Iraq’s monstrous Saddam Hussein and Turkey’s
strongman, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
Under Ghalib’s administration, Hamtramck’s all-male, all-Muslim city council has
implemented a series of reforms that have brought the city code in alignment
with Islamist values. The Islamic call to prayer blasts out over loudspeakers
from as early as 4:10 a.m. Ghalib systematically replaced non-Muslim city
employees with Muslim ones. An ordinance allows backyard animal sacrifices. Gay
pride flags are banned on city property.
To celebrate Hamas’ Oct. 7 massacre of Israelis, the city council renamed the
town’s main street “Palestine Avenue.” A resolution requires the city to divest
from Israeli businesses.
Several city officials joined the mayor in voicing explicitly antisemitic
opinions online. Mohammed Hassan, the city’s mayor pro tem, shared an image in
2021 of a monkey sporting Jewish side curls and a hat bearing the Star of David,
captioned: “Israel – the real terrorist!!!” Nasr Hussain, Hamtramck Plan
Commission member, called “the Holocaust God’s advance punishment” for Jews, who
he claimed are “as savage and cruel as the Nazis themselves.” (Ghalib refused to
denounce this statement.)
Then there is Hamtramck’s record of ballot fraud, including allegations of
immigrant ballot harvesting. Ghalib announced his apparent breach of election
laws in the 2020 Democratic presidential primary, when he supported Senator
Bernie Sanders (I-VT): “There were twenty people around me planning to vote for
Biden because they loved [Barack] Obama,” he wrote on Facebook. “I got them to
vote for Sanders and did their families’ ballot cards myself.” (Michigan law
makes it a crime to influence a voter who is filling out a ballot card or to
assist a competent voter in marking a ballot.)
Other city leaders face accusations of foul play; police raids, cease and desist
orders, and even convictions related to ballot harvesting have embroiled several
city councilmembers and candidates.
Hamtramck’s blurring of mosque and state, its leaders’ obsession with Israel,
and the city’s hostility towards gays reflect the Islamist ideology that Trump
previously considered an imminent threat, or a “Trojan horse.”
By embracing Hamtramck’s mayor, Trump inadvertently brings a needed spotlight to
this obscure corner of the United States, revealing small-town corruption,
bigotry, and extremism that should alarm all Americans.
*Benjamin Baird is the director of MEF Action, a project of the Middle East
Forum.
Benjamin Baird
*Benjamin Baird is a public affairs specialist who organizes grassroots advocacy
campaigns in support of Middle East Forum projects. He mobilizes constituencies
to support MEF policy objectives, coordinates effective public pressure
campaigns, and uses bold and creative techniques to disrupt the policy-making
arena. Mr. Baird is a U.S. Army infantry veteran with a B.A. from American
Military University. His writing can be found at National Review, New York Post,
Jerusalem Post, and other prominent media outlets.
Turkiye through the eyes of Eastern European states
Sinem Cengiz/Arab News/November 01, 2024
Over the past few years, there has been a growing trend in Turkiye’s relations
with Eastern European states, particularly Poland, Hungary and Romania. Despite
differences in their approaches, they share common interests with Turkiye. As
Europe is not immune to security challenges, especially following Russia’s
invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the escalating migration crisis, the evolving
ties between Ankara and these Eastern European states deserve a closer look.
Turkiye focuses on three key areas to enhance its relations with Eastern
European states: establishing military cooperation within NATO as part of the
European security framework; balancing relations with countries that have
differing views on Ankara’s EU accession process; and strengthening its
political and economic influence in Eastern Europe in alignment with the
interests of Poland, Romania and Hungary.
Among these states, Poland looks for closer security relations with Turkiye.
Both are key NATO members, with Turkiye having NATO’s second-largest military
after the US and Poland in third spot. According to newly released figures, the
size of Poland’s military has more than doubled over the last decade. It stood
at 99,000 personnel in 2014, when it was only the ninth-largest in NATO, but is
now at 216,100, according to NATO’s estimates for this year.
Poland is among the states interested in the Turkish defense industry, which has
attracted a lot of attention from different parts of the world, including
Europe. In June, Turkish manufacturer Baykar delivered to Poland the final batch
of Turkish drones, namely the Bayraktar TB-2, ordered at a cost of $270 million.
Polish policymakers underline that it is essential for their country to maintain
strong security relations with Turkiye.
Polish policymakers underline that it is essential for their country to maintain
strong security relations with Turkiye, despite their differences, which mostly
relate to Ankara’s approach to Russia. Poland serves as a key NATO ally on the
eastern flank. Both Turkiye and Poland have shown a strong commitment to NATO’s
collective security principles and are part of the alliance’s activities that
involve collaboration against common threats. Despite their strong will, the
extent and effectiveness of their defense cooperation is yet to reach its
potential. Both states, either bilaterally or multilaterally, strive to enhance
their defense ties not only to bolster their own security but also to contribute
to the broader stability of Europe and beyond. Regional instability caused by
Russian aggression, terrorism and hybrid threats are common security challenges.
Within the NATO framework and beyond, they can counter these threats through
coordinated strategies to enhance the alliance’s eastern flank. Moreover, Poland
fully supports Turkiye’s accession to the EU, which began in 2005 but stalled
due to Ankara’s strained relations with some members of the union — not Poland,
Romania or Hungary, however.
Warsaw has defined Turkiye and Romania as Poland’s “key allies” and said that
the foreign ministers of these three states should harmonize on the need to
invest in the security of NATO’s eastern flank. Turkiye and Romania, along with
Bulgaria, in July started joint demining operations in the Black Sea to ensure
the safety of grain shipments from Ukraine. Under the Turkish-led deal, the
three countries aim to oversee efforts to clear mines that have been drifting in
the Black Sea since the onset of Russia’s invasion. While other NATO members are
not involved in the initiative, Turkiye, which brokered the Black Sea Grain
Initiative in 2022, plays a major role in the demining agreement. The Black Sea
is of strategic importance to NATO, of which all three of these states are
members. Turkiye and Romania are also safeguarding the eastern flank of NATO
airspace with their F-16 fighter jets. Last December, Turkish F-16 fighter jets
arrived in Romania to participate in NATO’s enhanced air policing mission in the
south for the first time.
Compared to Romania and Poland, Hungary shares more commonalities with Turkiye
in its approach to NATO and Russia. While some NATO and EU members see Turkiye
as the odd one out within the alliance, Hungary views it as a close partner and
a role model as part of its broader foreign policy strategy. Hungary and Turkiye
were the only two NATO countries that dragged their heels on ratifying Sweden’s
bid to join. Hungary and Turkiye were the only two NATO countries that
dragged their heels on ratifying Sweden’s bid to join the transatlantic military
alliance. Sweden became a full member of NATO in March, only after Ankara and
Budapest finally approved. Yet, this does not mean their interests in bargaining
with NATO were for the same cause, as their demands were different.
Also, while Turkiye and Hungary hedge on supporting Ukraine, their foreign
policies often clash with NATO priorities. Both the Turkish and Hungarian
leaders have broken ranks within NATO and met with Russian President Vladimir
Putin as they try to maintain relations with Moscow. For instance, Hungary made
it clear that it would not participate in security assistance and training
efforts for Ukraine, while Romania became one of Ukraine’s staunchest allies,
capped with the signing of a 10-year security agreement in July. This
demonstrates that there are diverse views within the Eastern European states
that Turkiye aims to cooperate with. Hungary is also pushing for economic
neutrality within the EU, including a “shift from traditional Western
alignment.” In this regard, it has engaged in energy collaboration with Turkiye.
Hungary in April became the first non-neighboring country to import gas from
Turkiye.
When looking at these Eastern European states’ relations with Turkiye, it is
safe to argue that they aim to redefine their positions within NATO and
strengthen their military capabilities through a strong collaboration with
Turkiye. Although their approaches often conflict, NATO remains a core foreign
policy priority for all these states and this shapes their view of Turkiye.
Sinem Cengiz is a Turkish political analyst who specializes in Turkiye’s
relations with the Middle East. X: @SinemCngz
Moscow struggles to find allies for Ukraine war
Luke Coffey/Arab News/November 01, 2024
The BRICS summit in Kazan last week was intended to signal to the international
community — and particularly the West — that Russia remains influential and far
from isolated by its war on Ukraine, but the outcomes for Moscow were mixed.
The BRICS countries could not come to a unified stance on Ukraine. Their final
declaration briefly stated: “We recall national positions concerning the
situation in and around Ukraine,” and “all states should act consistently with
the purposes and principles of the UN Charter in their entirety and
interrelation.” This minimal mention of Ukraine, coupled with a general nod to
the UN Charter, exposed the divisions within BRICS on this key issue.
Ukraine remains Russia’s most pressing national security and foreign policy
concern. As both summit host and BRICS president, Russia aimed to forge a
unified front on the conflict. But the failure to gain consensus was a major
diplomatic setback, emphasizing the challenges Russia faces in reconciling the
diverse and often divergent interests within BRICS.
BRICS brings together nations with longstanding regional rivalries and
conflicting global perspectives.
Given the varied political landscapes of its member countries, the lack of
consensus on Ukraine should not be surprising. BRICS brings together nations
with longstanding regional rivalries and conflicting global perspectives. For
instance, relations between China and India remain tense over their unresolved
border. Iran and the UAE often find themselves on opposite sides of issues in
the Gulf, while Egypt and Ethiopia are frequently at odds over regional
concerns, particularly the Nile’s water resources. These differences mean that
reaching alignment on controversial issues, especially those as complex as
Ukraine, is challenging at best.
For some BRICS members, such as Russia and China, the group offers a way to
establish an alternative to what they view as a G7 and West-dominated global
system. They see BRICS as a counterbalance to perceived Western hegemony,
providing a space to challenge established norms and build influence. However,
other BRICS members view their participation as supplementary to their
relationships with the West rather than a replacement. These countries seek
balanced engagement on several fronts, prioritizing economic cooperation and
stability without necessarily subscribing to an anti-Western stance. This split
in purpose and perspective makes it difficult to achieve unified action within
BRICS on divisive issues such as Ukraine.
This reflects broader international divides on the conflict. Within Europe,
attitudes toward the war are mixed, and signs of war fatigue are emerging. In
many European states, parties on both the far left and far right are calling for
reduced aid to Ukraine. Leaders in Hungary and Slovakia, for example, have
publicly questioned the wisdom of continued support, calling instead for
territorial concessions to Russia in the interest of a negotiated peace. This
lack of unity among NATO members was evident at the alliance’s Washington summit
in July, when high hopes for a clear path to membership for Ukraine went unmet.
The war in Ukraine is also a significant point of division in the US, where the
two leading presidential candidates hold opposing views. Vice President Kamala
Harris has expressed a firm stance in support of Ukraine, although she has not
indicated that her approach would differ significantly from the policy of the
Biden administration. On the other hand, former President Donald Trump has
suggested he could negotiate a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia, which
would probably involve Ukraine ceding territory and agreeing to remain outside
NATO and the EU.
The war is also a significant point of division in the US, where the two leading
presidential candidates hold opposing views.
As each country formulates its own policy, certain foundational truths must
remain central. When Ukraine declared independence in 1991, its borders —
including Crimea — were internationally recognized, including by Russia. This
underscores why Russia has struggled to find support for its war outside a small
group of allies such as North Korea, Iran, and Belarus. Ukraine gave up its
nuclear arsenal in the 1990s with assurances from Russia and the international
community that its borders would be respected. Since then, Ukraine has
consistently adhered to its obligations under the UN Charter, making it
essential that any resolution to the conflict respects Ukraine’s territorial
integrity and aligns with international law.
As the situation continues to evolve, shifts in political leadership across the
globe could alter the support landscape for Ukraine. The US election will lead
to a new administration, and possibly a change in policy on Ukraine.
Additionally, several European countries are preparing for elections, and
shifting public opinion could usher in governments less inclined to support
Ukraine. Meanwhile Russia continues to use platforms such as BRICS to advance
its agenda and assert its relevance on the global stage, though the summit
highlighted the limitations of this approach.
The path forward remains uncertain. The inability of BRICS to agree on Ukraine
reflects a broader, fractured global response to the conflict, a reality that
Ukraine and its allies must navigate carefully in the months ahead.
*Luke Coffey is a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute. X: @LukeDCoffey
How to End the Third Lebanon War—and Prevent the Fourth
Assaf Orion/The Washington Institute/November 01/October 2024
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2024/11/136407/
The security arrangements set forth by Resolution 1701 and other past accords
need to be beefed up and, more important, enforced—a task that may require an
international “action group” willing to operate beyond the Security Council’s
limitations.
One year ago, Hezbollah started what has morphed into the third Lebanon war with
Israel, exposing the international failure to implement security arrangements
mandated after their second war in 2006. On the ground, this failure can be
attributed to the Lebanese government, the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), and the
UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), but the Security Council and UN
secretary-general bear heavy responsibility as well. To end the current war and
prevent the next one, any new security arrangements must acknowledge and correct
the roots of this failure.
Why 1701 Failed to Prevent War
Upon its adoption in 2006, UN Security Council Resolution 1701 ably diagnosed
the main reasons for the outbreak of the second war: Hezbollah’s possession of
military weapons outside the government’s control, and its deployment of forces
in southern Lebanon along the border with Israel. To prevent a third war, 1701
wisely called on Beirut to extend its sovereignty via the LAF (supported by
UNIFIL) and to establish a zone south of the Litani River that was free of any
nongovernmental armed forces. The government was also asked to disarm all
militias in accordance with the Taif Accord and Security Council Resolutions
1559 and 1680. And the UN secretary-general was tasked with developing proposals
for implementing these resolutions.
As the decades passed, however, none of these requirements was fulfilled.
Disarmament of militias was never seriously addressed—instead, Lebanese
officials stalled by holding an endless “dialogue on national defense,” then
essentially endorsed Hezbollah’s right to bear arms through the oft-heard
official motto “the people, the army, and the resistance.” Although the LAF had
few qualms about going after most Sunni jihadist movements, they never disarmed
Palestinian factions affiliated with terrorist groups like Hamas, let alone
confronted Shia Hezbollah.
The Lebanese government and LAF, while repeating their commitment to 1701,
actively colluded with Hezbollah in violating it, systematically obstructing
UNIFIL access to Hezbollah military sites such as cross-border tunnels, firing
ranges, and missile launch sites. The UN repeatedly complained about these
violations in endless reports but did nothing in response. Against the gathering
storm, UNIFIL often praised its supposed contribution to the “calm” along the
border. Yet Hezbollah’s campaign of violence and intimidation against the UN
force successfully deterred it from fulfilling its mandate or even accurately
reporting the situation on the ground, contributing to a steady uptick in
hostilities with Israel over the years that culminated in the current war.
Meanwhile, Beirut betrayed its duty to protect UNIFIL by failing to bring
Hezbollah murderers and other assailants to justice.
Today, as new security arrangements are considered and negotiated, UNIFIL’s
specific failures must be looked at with eyes wide open. After years of
inadequate support from Lebanon and the UN, the force gradually internalized its
denied access to forbidden Hezbollah sites as so-called “private properties,”
“areas of strategic importance,” and (now-destroyed) positions held by the fake
environmental group “Green Without Borders.” During the current war, findings by
the Israel Defense Forces prove beyond a doubt that Hezbollah turned homes,
other private properties, and even entire villages into military assets, with
cover-up assistance from the government and LAF. UNIFIL even came to accept that
simply taking photographs in south Lebanon was off-limits—after UN cameras and
electronics were repeatedly confiscated or destroyed by Hezbollah members,
UNIFIL described them as being seized by “civilians.” Indeed, any attempts to
bolster UNIFIL’s situational awareness were effectively blocked by Hezbollah’s
partners in the government.
Despite these blatant violations, the UN secretary-general’s regular reports to
the Security Council regarding the progress of 1701 downplayed the deteriorating
security situation for years, emphasizing irrelevant mission statistics such as
patrol numbers while spending inordinate time on matters well outside UNIFIL’s
mandate (e.g., Lebanon’s political and economic crises). In turn, the Security
Council did little about any of the above problems, repeatedly renewing UNIFIL’s
mandate without significant change.
An International “Action Group”?
To end the current Lebanon war and prevent the outbreak of a fourth one, the
international community must take steps to avoid the conditions that led to
previous outbreaks. This entails not only better security arrangements, but
mostly an effective implementation mechanism. Along with the Taif Accord,
previous UN resolutions—1559, 1680, and 1701—provide a legitimate basis for
helping the Lebanese government establish a monopoly on arms within its borders.
Yet these resolutions must be enforced by a strong implementation mechanism or
they will simply fail again.
More specifically, future security arrangements must ensure that Lebanese
territory is no longer used to threaten Israel—whether by Hezbollah, other
Iranian proxies, Palestinian groups, or jihadists. The goal is to safeguard both
Israel and Lebanon’s security and sovereignty. Israel’s current military
campaign aims to facilitate this goal in two ways: first, by degrading
Hezbollah’s military, destroying its assets, disrupting its organization, and
weakening its grip on Lebanon; and second, by generating urgency and leverage in
support of effective diplomacy.
In principle, the core of Lebanon’s future security architecture should begin
with the government assuming sovereign responsibility over its territory. Given
Beirut’s long-running weakness, dysfunction, and corruption, however, additional
layers are necessary to support, monitor, incentivize, coerce, and enforce
progress on this front. The UN can provide one of these layers—as long as it
agrees to play a more useful role than in the past. The United States can
provide another layer, together with like-minded players such as select European
nations (Britain, France, Germany, Italy) and relevant regional partners. And if
all else fails, Israel would step in as another layer—the final backstop in
defense of its own security, with Washington’s support.
To provide a legitimate source of authority for these security arrangements,
Lebanon needs to establish a functional government, starting with the selection
of a new president after years of political deadlock. Direct pressure should be
applied against those impeding this step, including Speaker of Parliament Nabih
Berri. If this effort fails, external actors should move ahead regardless.
Realistically, the prospects for a significantly stronger Security Council
resolution are slim given the unhelpful positions taken so far by China and
Russia. Hence, a non-UN path may be required. For instance, the United States,
Israel, and like-minded countries could create their own mechanism or action
group to promote a new roadmap independent of the UN. This would enable them to
compensate for the shortfalls in the current arrangement, on issues ranging from
oversight to monitoring to coercive sanctions. Israel could provide intelligence
to focus their efforts—and even military enforcement should all else fail. To
address Beirut’s sovereignty concerns, foreign alternatives to some of Israel’s
reconnaissance flights should be considered at the invitation of the Lebanese
government, similar to the “Olive Harvest” sorties that U.S. forces conducted
over Israel, Egypt, and Syria amid the disengagement agreements that followed
the 1973 war. To set all this in motion, the action group must compel Beirut to
seek international support and live up to its own commitments. Aid to Lebanon’s
economy and reconstruction, as well as arms, funds, and training support to the
LAF, must be conditioned on meeting clear benchmarks in the new roadmap. Any
Lebanese actors closely colluding with Hezbollah should be designated as
terrorist elements and dealt with accordingly.
The disarmament of militias will need to take place more gradually, phased by
location and faction. The most immediate need is in the south, focusing on
Hezbollah’s remaining military assets and armed Palestinian factions in the
southern refugee camps. To make this happen, Beirut must show sufficient
political will—namely, by instructing the LAF to plan and execute this task and
requesting UNIFIL support for it.
For its part, UNIFIL needs to be transformed or dissolved given its repeated
failures. If retained, the force must demonstrate a willingness to fulfill its
mandate by preventing all attacks from Lebanese territory, and by ensuring
freedom of movement and access to all locations in its mission area, including
“private properties,” “strategic areas,” and other sites previously prohibited
on various pretexts. UNIFIL must also boost its situational awareness by
establishing functional intelligence capabilities throughout its mission area.
Moreover, this mission area should be expanded northward, initially to the Awali
River and possibly farther. If Beirut officially requests UN support in
disarming militias, demilitarizing the south, and securing its borders, this
would become UNIFIL’s final test of relevance. In that case, the government and
LAF would need to reciprocate by backing and protecting UNIFIL personnel.
Whatever its mission becomes, UNIFIL’s size needs to be adjusted to fit its
actual tasks at every mandate renewal—which should occur every six months
instead of annually to ensure flexibility and responsiveness to mission
dynamics.
Permanent Security Council members such as China, Russia, and possibly France
(given its considerations as penholder on the issue) may oppose any change to
UNIFIL. If so, it would be better to dissolve the mission altogether, which the
United States could do by vetoing the mandate renewal next August and
withholding funds for the force’s $500 million yearly budget. In that scenario,
some monitoring and liaison missions could conceivably be performed by the UN
Truce Supervision Organization (UNTSO), whose military observers are already
embedded in UNIFIL and whose leadership has been in contact with Israel,
Lebanon, and Syria since 1948. Whatever roadmap they choose, officials should
use the current war pressures being exerted on Lebanon and Hezbollah to improve
postwar security arrangements, rather than opting for an immediate ceasefire
that opens up “space for diplomacy.” This more patient approach would still
result in ending the war, but with the major benefit of reducing Hezbollah’s
ability to quickly rebuild its forces, reemerge as a threat to Israel, impede
Lebanese sovereignty, and bring the fourth Lebanon war.
*Brig. Gen. Assaf Orion (Res.) is the Rueven International Fellow with The
Washington Institute and former head of the Israel Defense Forces Strategic
Planning Division.
https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/how-end-third-lebanon-war-and-prevent-fourth