Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on May 18-19/2024
The May 17, 1983, agreement between Lebanon and Israel was a fair opportunity for peace that Lebanon lost/With the Agreement text/Elias Bejjani/May 17/2024
Below are the links and titles of the English versions of the DW Hezbollah documentary
Unmasking Hezbollah - Drug trafficking and terror (1/3) | DW Documentary
Unmasking Hezbollah - Who was behind the assassination of Rafic Hariri? (2/3) | DW Documentary
Unmasking Hezbollah - Money laundering in Europe (3/3) | DW Documentary
Israeli army continues drone warfare against Hezbollah
Hezbollah uses new weapons in Israel attacks
US official says Washington pressing Israel not to wage war on Lebanon
Tensions Renewed on the Southern Front
Security plan: Motorcyclists Attack Police Station in Mrayjeh
Israeli Strike Against Car in Masnaa, Casualties Unknown
Southern Front: Fisherman Injured
Hamas says commander killed in Israel strike in Lebanon's Bekaa
Funerals offer displaced Lebanese villagers a chance to go home
Rising Tides of Tragedy: The Civil Defense and Lebanon’s Coastal Incidents
Magro Informs Geagea of Quintet’s Plan to End Presidential Deadlock
LF calls for massive participation in front of Brussels Justice Palace next Monday
Ghada Aoun Referred to Judicial Inspection Authority
How Israel’s Rafah Campaign Might Shape Hezbollah’s Operations/Hanin Ghaddar/The Washington Institute/May 18/2024
Will Love Marriages Save Lebanon?/Fady Noun/This Is Beirut/May 18/2024

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on May 18-19/2024
Israel pushes further into parts of north Gaza; new cracks in Netanyahu coalition
Fierce fighting in northern Gaza as aid rolls off US-built pier
Arab-American leaders meet with Blinken over Gaza
Israeli forces kill senior Palestinian militant in Jenin: army
Austria to resume aid to UN agency for Palestinians
Despite polls, Biden aides insist Gaza campus protests will not hurt reelection bid
Gaza Health Ministry: 35,386 Palestinians killed during Israeli attacks since Oct. 7
Israel eyes scrapping free trade deal with Turkiye
Israeli leaders split over post-war Gaza governance
Spanish PM Pedro Sanchez leads EU in push to recognise Palestine as a sovereign state
Israeli strike kills Palestinian militant, wounds eight people in West Bank
Ukraine reports no artillery shortages for first time in war, says Zelenskyy
Russia is finally getting serious about its war, and it spells trouble for Ukraine
Houthi missile strikes China-bound oil tanker in Red Sea
Sudan paramilitaries say will open ‘safe passages’ out of key Darfur city
Iran to send experts to ally Venezuela to help with medical accelerators
EU will not recognize Taiwan – Borrell

Titles For The Latest English LCCC  analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources on May 18-19/2024
US Administration Abandons Israel, Empowers Enemies/Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/May 18, 2024/Gatestone Institute.
Turkey's Syrian Mercenaries Come To The Sahel In Africa/Amb. Alberto M. Fernandez/MEMRI/May 18/2024
A boost for Biden’s global democracy agenda/Andrew Hammond/Arab News/May 18, 2024
Oil theft the untold driver of Syria’s enduring humanitarian crisis/Sir Alan Duncan/Arab News/May 18, 2024
Clueless in Gaza/Yossi Mekelberg/Arab News/May 18, 2024

Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on May 18-19/2024
The May 17, 1983, agreement between Lebanon and Israel was a fair opportunity for peace that Lebanon lost/With the Agreement text
Elias Bejjani/May 17/2024
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/118293/118293/
Today, Lebanon remembers the May 17 peace agreement that was signed by the Lebanese and Israeli states on May 17, 1983, during the reign of President Amin Gemayel, and Prime Minister Shafiq Al-Wazzan, after through and arduous negotiations, through which the skilled Lebanese negotiators managed to succeed par excellence in consolidating and preserving all the elements of sovereignty and rights. And most importantly securing complete unconditional, peaceful withdrawal of the Israeli army from all Lebanese territories.
The agreement was supported by the majority of the Lebanese people, the Presidency of the Republic, the Council of Ministers, and the parliament. It was also welcomed by most Arab countries, and all countries of the free world. It was indeed a great and irreplaceable opportunity to establish true peace in the Middle East region in general, and between Lebanon and Israel in particular.
However, through its Local cancerous influence on armed Lebanese groups, mercenaries, merchants of the false resistance, leftists and fundamentalists, the Syrian Baathist regime thwarted the agreement and forcibly prevented its implementation. The Syrian regime did not want Lebanon to have peace with Israel in a bid to maintain its barbaric occupation and hegemony. The Syrian Baathist regime, as well as the current Iranian occupier continue striving to keep Lebanon an open arena for absurd wars, a mailbox for their fiery terrorist messages, and a negotiating and bargaining chip. Syria and Iran falsely claim to be anti - Israel, and use this camouflaging and deceiving tag as an excuse to freely oppress their people and remain in power.
The May 17 agreement, was and still is a need, because the Lebanese want peace, stability and prosperity for their country, just as the Egypt, Jordan, Sudan Morocco, and the majority of the Arabian Gulf states did through peace agreements with Israel. However the Baathist Syria and Iranian mullahs' regimes, along with all merchants of the resistance, the Leftist and fundamentalists, thwarted the May 17 agreement by force, and they are still continuing to impose the same dirty plot on Lebanon and the Lebanese, but with different faces and under new malicious titles.
Certainly, Lebanon will not obtain from Israel at any time, and under any circumstances a peace agreement with better terms and conditions than the May 17 agreement one, therefore all those mercenary mouthpieces who attack the agreement must shut up and swallow their sharp tongues that are only fluent in a wooden language and in all arts of lies, hypocrisy, blasphemy, fabrication, and transgression against others... at the forefront of those are Iran, Hezbollah and their Lebanese mercenaries.
Yes, Lebanon has the right, legally and nationally, for striving to preserve its interests, security, sovereignty and independence, and that was exactly the main goal of the May 17 agreement, which unfortunately was thwarted by the Syrian regime, the resistance merchants and terrorists.
In conclusion, All Patriotic Lebanese leaders are required to put an end to their hypocrisy, trading with the blood and the livelihood the Lebanese, and work hard to serve both their people and country through forging real peace with all countries, including the state of Israel, as the majority of Arab countries did. And YES,The Lebanese have the right to enjoy peace and tranquility in a state that resembles them, and does not resemble the axis of evil, Syrian and Iranian regimes.

Below are the links and titles of the English versions of the DW Hezbollah documentary
In 2008, the United States launched "Project Cassandra". The aim was to uncover how Hezbollah uses drug trafficking and money laundering to finance its military and terrorist activities. The 3-part series tells the story of the project.
France has been the country of choice for Hezbollah fighters seeking asylum since 2010. France offers several benefits, including the possibility of integrating into a large Lebanese community and freedom of movement on European territory. Paris became a center for laundering money from the cocaine trade.
The D.E.A., the American Drug Enforcement Agency, alerted the French police. Together they opened a new chapter of Operation Cassandra, named "Operation Cedar," after the tree that symbolizes Lebanon.
Part 1:
• Unmasking Hezbollah - Drug traffickin...
Part 2:
• Unmasking Hezbollah - Who was behind ...
Part 3:
• Unmasking Hezbollah - Money launderin...
Unmasking Hezbollah - Drug trafficking and terror (1/3) | DW Documentary
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1gDvIexJYXE
Unmasking Hezbollah - Who was behind the assassination of Rafic Hariri? (2/3) | DW Documentary
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ovezVfPAu9c
Unmasking Hezbollah - Money laundering in Europe (3/3) | DW Documentary
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nrltqY3xDHg

Funerals offer displaced Lebanese villagers a chance to go home
AFP/May 18, 2024
MAIS AL JABAL: For displaced south Lebanese villagers, funerals for those killed in months of cross-border clashes are a rare chance to return home and see the devastation caused by Israeli bombardment. “My house is in ruins,” said Abdel Aziz Ammar, a 60-year-old man with a white beard, in front of a pile of rubble in the border village of Mais Al-Jabal. Only a plastic water tank survived.“My parents’ house, my brother’s house and my nephew’s house have all been totally destroyed,” said Ammar, who was back in Mais Al-Jabal this week for the funeral of a Hezbollah fighter from the village.Many residents of towns and villages on either side of the Israel-Lebanon border have evacuated their homes for safety. The Iran-backed Lebanese movement has been intensifying its attacks, while Israel has been striking deeper into Lebanese territory, in cross-border violence that has killed at least 419 people on the Lebanese side, according to an AFP tally. Most of the dead are Hezbollah fighters, including seven from Mais Al-Jabal, but at least 82 are civilians, three of whom journalists. Israel says 14 soldiers and 11 civilians have been killed on its side of the border. For funerals in the south, the Lebanese army informs United Nations peacekeepers, who then inform the Israeli military, a spokesperson for the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon said. The peacekeepers usually patrol near the border, and act as a buffer between Lebanon and Israel. Ammar fled his village for Beirut’s southern suburbs, a Hezbollah stronghold, two weeks after the violence broke out. The International Organization for Migration says more than 93,000 people have been displaced in south Lebanon, while authorities in Israel have evacuated tens of thousands from the country’s north. “We come for the funerals, but we inspect our homes. Those whose houses haven’t been destroyed use the time to collect their belongings,” Ammar said. “The house meant a lot to us, it was big,” with plenty of space for the children outside, he said of his home in Mais Al-Jabal. “My daughter always tells me, ‘I miss the house, when will we go back?’”An AFP photographer saw dozens of houses razed or partially destroyed in the village, which resembled a battlefield surrounded by green countryside.
A funeral procession crossed the rubble-strewn streets, with people chanting slogans in support of Hezbollah, not far from Israeli positions across the border. Hezbollah flags fluttered in the wind as women in chadors walked together, some wearing yellow scarves -the color of the Shiite Muslim movement — or holding pictures of the fallen “martyr”.“Whether I carry a weapon or not, just my presence in my village means I am a target for the Israelis,” Ammar said, noting the fighting does not always stop for the funerals. On May 5, a man, his wife and two children were killed in a strike on Mais Al-Jabal while a funeral took place. They had returned to the village to collect things from a store they owned, believing it to be a moment of calm, local media reported. In front of a half-destroyed house, people piled a small truck with whatever they could — a washing machine, a child’s stroller, a motorbike and plastic chairs.
Amid rubble in the village, a sign was propped up reading: “Even if you destroy our houses, your missiles cannot break our will.”Lebanese authorities are waiting for a ceasefire to fully assess the damage, but have estimated that some 1,700 houses have been destroyed and 14,000 damaged.
Emergency personnel have reported huge damage and villages emptied of residents, while many journalists have been reluctant to travel to the border areas due to the heavy bombardment. The overall bill already exceeds $1.5 billion, authorities estimate, in a crisis-hit country where compensation procedures remain vague.But to village resident Khalil Hamdan, 53, who also attended the funeral, “the destruction doesn’t make a difference.”“We will rebuild,” he told AFP.

Israeli army continues drone warfare against Hezbollah
NAJIA HOUSSARI/Arab News/May 18, 2024
BEIRUT: Israel widened its drone attacks on Hezbollah and Hamas fighters in Lebanon on Saturday, with strikes near the Lebanese-Syrian border in parallel with attacks in the south of the country. An Israeli combat drone struck a car carrying two people on the road between the Lebanese General Security and Syrian General Security checkpoints. The Syrian Observatory confirmed the attack, saying that “the target in the car was a Hezbollah leader and his companion.”Footage taken by passersby on the border road showed the vehicle on fire, with flames and smoke rising from surrounding areas, suggesting that more than one missile struck the target. Sham FM radio, which is close to the Syrian regime, later confirmed that an Israeli attack destroyed a car and killed both occupants near a military checkpoint on the Damascus-Beirut highway. Unconfirmed media reports said the military vehicle belonged to Hezbollah. Hezbollah later launched dozens of attacks on Israeli military sites. According to a statement, these included surveillance equipment at the Ramtha site, “technical systems and spy equipment at the Raheb site,” the headquarters of the Liman Battalion, surveillance equipment at the Hadab Yarin site, and the Al-Samaqa site in the Kfarshuba hills. The latest attack came less than 18 hours after an Israeli drone struck a car on the Majdal Anjar road, killing a senior Hamas figure. Izz El-Deen Al-Qassam Brigades identified the victim as Sharhabeel Ali Al-Sayyid, a mujahid leader.Another person accompanying Ali Al-Sayyid was badly injured in the strike.Early on Saturday, an Israeli drone struck a motorcycle on the road to Naqoura town on Lebanon’s southern border, injuring the rider, a fisherman returning home from work. The injured man was taken to hospital in Tyre. Hezbollah said in a statement that it targeted the Ras Naqoura naval site with artillery in response to the drone strike. Repeated Israeli attacks have added to tension in the southern and Bekaa areas, with traffic on the main roads noticeably reduced. Hezbollah also targeted a group of Israeli soldiers near the Pranit Barracks with missiles, causing “a direct hit,” according to the statement. Israeli fighter planes raided the town of Khiam at dawn on Saturday, continuing their assaults on Aita Al-Shaab.

Hezbollah uses new weapons in Israel attacks
AFP/May 18, 2024
BEIRUT: Lebanon’s powerful armed group Hezbollah announced on Thursday it had used a drone capable of firing rockets at a military position in one of its latest attacks in northern Israel. Israel and Hezbollah have been involved in near-daily exchanges of fire since the war between Israel and Hamas broke out on October 7.Hezbollah announced it had used an “armed attack drone” equipped with two S-5 rockets on a military position in Metula in northern Israel. The Iran-backed group published a video showing the drone heading toward the position, where tanks were stationed, with the footage showing the moment the two rockets were released followed by the drone exploding.It was the first time they had announced the use of this type of weapon since the cross-border exchanges with Israel erupted in October. The Israeli army said three soldiers were wounded in Thursday’s attack. Hezbollah-affiliated media said that the drone’s warhead consisted of between 25 and 30 kilogrammes (55 and 66 pounds) of high explosive. Military analyst Khalil Helou told AFP that the use of drones offers Hezbollah the ability to launch the attack from within Israeli territory, as they can fly at low altitudes, evading detection by radar. Hezbollah also announced on Wednesday that it had launched a strike using “attack drones” on a base west of the northern Israeli town of Tiberias. That attack was the group’s deepest into Israeli territory since fighting flared, analysts said. In recent weeks, the Lebanese militant group has announced attacks that it has described as “complex,” using attack drones and missiles to hit military positions, as well as troops and vehicles. It has also used guided and heavy missiles, such as Iran’s Burkan and Almas missiles, as well as the Jihad Mughniyeh missile, named after a Hezbollah leader killed by Israeli fire in Syria in 2015. Helou, a retired general, said that depite its new weaponry, Hezbollah still relied primarily on Kornet anti-tank missiles with a range of just five to eight kilometers. They also use the Konkurs anti-tank missile, which can penetrate Israel’s Iron Dome defense system. Hezbollah has a large arsenal of weapons, that it has expanded significantly in recent years. The group has said repeatedly that it has advanced weapons capable of striking deep inside Israeli territory. Analysts have described the skirmishes between Israel and Hamas as a war of “attrition,” in which each side is testing the other, as well as their own tactics. Hezbollah has expanded the range of its attacks in response to strikes targeting its munitions and infrastructure, or its military commanders. One such Israeli strike on Wednesday targeted the village of Brital in Lebanon’s eastern Bekaa Valley, with the Israeli army later announcing it had hit a “terror target related to Hezbollah’s precision missile project.”Helou said Hezbollah’s targeting of the base near Tiberias and its use of the rocket-equipped drone “can be interpreted as a response to the attack on Brital, but it remains a shy response compared to the group’s capabilities.” He suggested that the Israeli strike likely hit a depot for Iranian missiles that had not yet been used by Hezbollah. “Hezbollah does not wish to expand the circle of the conflict,” Helou said. “What is happening is a war of attrition through which it is trying to distract the Israeli army” from Gaza and seeking to prevent it from “launching a wide-ranging attack on Lebanon.”

US official says Washington pressing Israel not to wage war on Lebanon
Naharnet/May 18/2024 
A U.S. official has told Al-Arabiya television that neither Israel nor Hezbollah wants to engage in an all-out war. Revealing that Washington is pressing Israel not to wage a war on Lebanon, the official said his country does not want to see an expansion of the Gaza conlfict in the region. The U.S. has used diplomatic channels to urge Iran not to escalate, the official told Al-Arabiya. He also noted that Israel is capable of launching a full-blown assault that would inflict major damage on Hezbollah but that the latter is not capable of waging a war on Israel.

Tensions Renewed on the Southern Front
This Is Beirut/May 18/2024
The exchange of fire between Hezbollah and Israel intensified on Saturday afternoon. Hezbollah escalated its attacks against Israel after the latter carried out a raid on Naqoura, wounding a fisherman. He was taken to a hospital and is reportedly in stable condition. In a series of press releases, the pro-Iranian group claimed responsibility for attacks on several targets: the Ras Naqoura naval base, spy facilities in Ramtha, Raheb, and Hadb Yarin, a gathering of soldiers at the Ramim barracks, as well as positions in Baghdadi, the headquarters of the Liman brigade, and the Sammaka position. Earlier in the morning, Hezbollah had announced that it fired rockets at a gathering of Israeli soldiers near the Biranit barracks. Meanwhile, on Saturday afternoon, the Israeli army raided the village of Aitaroun, though no injuries were reported. Israeli raids also targeted Aita al-Shaab, the outskirts of Ramya, Bayt Lif, and Odaisseh. Additionally, the Israeli army bombed the outskirts of Kfarchouba, Naqoura, and Alma al-Shaab.

Security plan: Motorcyclists Attack Police Station in Mrayjeh
This Is Beirut/May 18/2024
A group of motorcyclists protested outside Al-Mreijeh Police Station in the southern suburbs of Beirut on Saturday afternoon. The protest comes a day after security forces apprehended several bikes in the region for non-compliance with the law. The protest, involving mostly young men, escalated when the group attacked the police station, prompting security forces to fire shots in the air to disperse them. The protesters were heard chanting, “Our government is a thief.” Despite gunshots, They stayed put, blocking access roads to the police station, which had to call for reinforcements. The protest later spread to other neighborhoods. Angry bikers also blocked the Selim Salam road, in protest against the security plan. The Beirut security plan was launched on May 15th by caretaker Interior Minister Bassam Mawlawi. The plan enforces laws against offenses committed by motorcyclists, among others, particularly those without helmets or proper documentation. Mawlawi has ordered round-the-clock patrols by road traffic units in Beirut, the southern suburbs, and Jdeideh to ensure the implementation of the new measures.

Israeli Strike Against Car in Masnaa, Casualties Unknown
This Is Beirut/May 18/2024
On Saturday, the Israeli army targeted a car near the Masnaa border post in Syria, on the border with Lebanon. According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a Hezbollah leader and his companion were targeted by the strike on the Damascus-Beirut road, leading to the car’s destruction. Casualties remain unknown. The explosion took place near the Syrian army roadblock.

Southern Front: Fisherman Injured
This Is Beirut/May 18/2024
Tensions remain at their highest in southern Lebanon, where artillery exchanges between Hezbollah and Israel have continued unabated since October 8, when Hezbollah opened this front in support of Hamas in its war in Gaza. On Saturday morning, a young fisherman was injured in an Israeli drone strike on a motorcycle in the village of Naqoura. He was transported to the hospital, where he received the necessary treatment. According to reports, his condition is stable. The Israeli Army also carried out raids on Wadi al-Asafir in Khiam, and bombed the outskirts of Debel and Hanine.In addition, Israeli reconnaissance aircraft flew at medium altitude over Hasbaya and the Shebaa Farms until dawn on Saturday. For its part, Hezbollah announced that it had fired rockets at a gathering of Israeli soldiers in the vicinity of the Biranit barracks. Hezbollah’s press service also broadcast images of the Hezb operation against the Israeli military base Tsnobar 651 in the Golan Heights, occupied by Israel. On Friday night, the Israeli Army carried out three raids against the village of Khiam.

Hamas says commander killed in Israel strike in Lebanon's Bekaa
Agence France Presse/May 18/2024
Palestinian militant group Hamas said that a "commander" was killed in an Israeli strike on an eastern district of Lebanon near the Syrian border. Hamas' armed wing, the Ezzedine al-Qassam Brigades, said in a statement that "commander" Sharhabil Sayed was killed "after he was targeted by Israeli occupation aircraft" in Lebanon's West Bekaa area. A source close to the Palestinian militant group, speaking on condition of anonymity, had earlier told AFP that Sayed was a Hamas official responsible for Lebanon's Bekaa region and "was killed in an Israeli strike that targeted his vehicle."Lebanon's civil defense agency reported "one martyr and two wounded due to an Israeli air strike" on a vehicle near Majdal Anjar, a town around five kilometers from the Syrian border and around 60 kilometers from Lebanon's border with Israel. Lebanon's official National News Agency reported one dead and two wounded in an "enemy strike" that targeted a vehicle in the same area. An AFP photographer saw a vehicle that had been destroyed in the raid. The strike came after Israeli strikes earlier in the day killed a Hezbollah fighter and two children, according to the Lebanese militant group and official media. After Hamas' October 7 attack on Israel triggered war in Gaza, its powerful Lebanese ally Hezbollah has exchanged near-daily fire with Israeli forces across the border. The attacks have been intensifying, with Israeli forces increasingly striking deep into Lebanese territory, while Palestinian factions and other allied groups in Lebanon have also claimed cross-border attacks. Hezbollah earlier this week announced that its chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah had met with senior Hamas member Khalil al-Hayya. In March, Hamas said one of its members was killed in an Israeli strike in south Lebanon that state media said killed three people. A strike in January, which a U.S. defense official said was carried out by Israel, killed Hamas deputy leader Saleh al-Arouri and six other militants in Hezbollah's south Beirut stronghold. The cross-border fighting has killed at least 419 people in Lebanon, mostly militants but also including 82 civilians, according to an AFP tally. Israel says 14 soldiers and 11 civilians have been killed on its side of the border.

Funerals offer displaced Lebanese villagers a chance to go home
Agence France Presse/May 18/2024
For displaced south Lebanese villagers, funerals for those killed in months of cross-border clashes are a rare chance to return home and see the devastation caused by Israeli bombardment. "My house is in ruins," said Abdel Aziz Ammar, a 60-year-old man with a white beard, in front of a pile of rubble in the border village of Mais al-Jabal. Only a plastic water tank survived. "My parents' house, my brother's house and my nephew's house have all been totally destroyed," said Ammar, who was back in Mais al-Jabal this week for the funeral of a Hezbollah fighter from the village. Hezbollah began attacking Israel in support of ally Hamas a day after the Palestinian militant group's unprecedented October 7 attack on Israel that sparked war in the Gaza Strip. Many residents of towns and villages on either side of the Israel-Lebanon border have evacuated their homes for safety. The Iran-backed Lebanese movement has been intensifying its attacks, while Israel has been striking deeper into Lebanese territory, in cross-border violence that has killed at least 419 people on the Lebanese side, according to an AFP tally. Most of the dead are Hezbollah fighters, including seven from Mais al-Jabal, but at least 82 are civilians, three of whom journalists. Israel says 14 soldiers and 11 civilians have been killed on its side of the border. For funerals in the south, the Lebanese army informs United Nations peacekeepers, who then inform the Israeli military, a spokesperson for the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon said. The peacekeepers usually patrol near the border, and act as a buffer between Lebanon and Israel.
'Collect their belongings'
Ammar fled his village for Beirut's southern suburbs, a Hezbollah stronghold, two weeks after the violence broke out. The International Organization for Migration says more than 93,000 people have been displaced in south Lebanon, while authorities in Israel have evacuated tens of thousands from Israel's north. "We come for the funerals, but we inspect our homes. Those whose houses haven't been destroyed use the time to collect their belongings," Ammar said. "The house meant a lot to us, it was big," with plenty of space for the children outside, he said of his home in Mais al-Jabal.
"My daughter always tells me, 'I miss the house, when will we go back?'" An AFP photographer saw dozens of houses razed or partially destroyed in the village, which resembled a battlefield surrounded by green countryside. A funeral procession crossed the rubble-strewn streets, with people chanting slogans in support of Hezbollah, not far from Israeli positions across the border. Hezbollah flags fluttered in the wind as women in chadors walked together, some wearing yellow scarves -- the color of the Shiite Muslim movement -- or holding pictures of the fallen "martyr".
"Whether I carry a weapon or not, just my presence in my village means I am a target for the Israelis," Ammar said, noting the fighting does not always stop for the funerals. 'We will rebuild' On May 5, a man, his wife and two children were killed in a strike on Mais al-Jabal while a funeral took place. They had returned to the village to collect things from a store they owned, believing it to be a moment of calm, local media reported. In front of a half-destroyed house, people piled a small truck with whatever they could -- a washing machine, a child's stroller, a motorbike and plastic chairs. Amid rubble in the village, a sign was propped up reading: "Even if you destroy our houses, your missiles cannot break our will." Lebanese authorities are waiting for a ceasefire to fully assess the damage, but have estimated that some 1,700 houses have been destroyed and 14,000 damaged. Emergency personnel have reported huge damage and villages emptied of residents, while many journalists have been reluctant to travel to the border areas due to the heavy bombardment. The overall bill already exceeds $1.5 billion, authorities estimate, in a crisis-hit country where compensation procedures remain vague. But to village resident Khalil Hamdan, 53, who also attended the funeral, "the destruction doesn't make a difference." "We will rebuild," he told AFP.

Rising Tides of Tragedy: The Civil Defense and Lebanon’s Coastal Incidents
Lyne Sammouri/This Is Beirut/May 18/2024
Lebanon’s Civil Defense grapples with a surge in coastal drowning incidents as summer approaches. Tragic losses at beaches underscore the risks faced by swimmers in unpredictable environments.

Magro Informs Geagea of Quintet’s Plan to End Presidential Deadlock
This Is Beirut/May 18/2024
Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea met with French Ambassador to Lebanon Hervé Magro in Meerab on Saturday. They were joined by the French Embassy’s political affairs advisors, Quentin Jeantet and Romain Calvary. The meeting focused on the French initiative to end the ongoing conflict between Hezbollah and Israel in southern Lebanon, where artillery exchanges have been occurring since October 8. Additionally, they discussed the Syrian migrant and refugee crisis, as well as the presidential vacancy that has persisted since the end of former President Michel Aoun’s term on October 31, 2022. Magro briefed Geagea on the efforts of the Quintet ambassadors (from the United States, France, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Qatar) to resolve the presidential deadlock.

LF calls for massive participation in front of Brussels Justice Palace next Monday
NNA/May 18/2024 
Lebanese Forces Party called on its supporters, citizens, and friends of Lebanon to participate extensively in the sit-in that will be held in front of the Palace of Justice in Brussels, next Monday, May 27, from 12:00 noon until 2:00 p.m. The sit-in aims to reject the position of the European Union and demand that it implement appropriate measures to return the displaced to safe areas in Syria, in light of the current situation that entails serious risks that this displacement poses to Lebanon’s security, economy, stability and existence.

Ghada Aoun Referred to Judicial Inspection Authority
Youssef Diab/This Is Beirut/May 18/2024
“Old habits die hard.” This proverb is fitting to Mount Lebanon Public Prosecutor Judge Ghada Aoun’s situation, as she seems unwilling to change her behavior or reciprocate the conciliatory efforts of Public Prosecutor at the Court of Cassation Jamal Hajjar. True to the saying “Nature prevails over nurture,” Aoun has once again defied Hajjar’s decisions, just as she did with his predecessor, Judge Ghassan Oueidat, over the past four years. She is backed by unwavering support from former President Michel Aoun and his political party who appointed her in this sensitive position, turning her into a fierce tool against their political rivals and the banking sector. Dubbed as the “Judge of the Mandate,” namely Michel Aoun’s, Ghada Aoun has relentlessly targeted Lebanese banks and reported them to international authorities, aiming to have them included on international sanctions lists.
For four months, Judge Jamal Hajjar’s attempts to reach an understanding with Ghada Aoun proved futile. Despite numerous meetings and discussions, he could not convince her to espouse standards of objectivity and justice in handling the cases under her jurisdiction. Before their disagreement escalated publicly, our fellow news outlet Houna Lebanon learned from an informed source that four weeks ago, the Public Prosecution Office received four complaints from parties impacted by cases pending before Judge Aoun in Mount Lebanon. These cases included complaints from banks accusing her of legal overreach. As a way to check the accuracy of her somewhat questionable actions, Hajjar sent a letter to Aoun, requesting access to the relevant case records to oversee and assess her judicial proceedings.
In this context, the same source disclosed that both Hajjar and the judicial authorities were caught off guard with Ghada Aoun’s unpredicted response: an outright refusal to hand over the files. She claimed that the public prosecutor was overstepping his authority. But the law is pretty clear: The public prosecutor, as the head of public prosecution offices and judicial police across Lebanon, has the right to review all files and issue binding directives for their investigation. The source emphasizes that the public prosecutor “has the authority to withdraw any case from the hands of the investigative judge’s purview, not just from the Public Prosecution Court of Appeals.”Furthermore, the aforementioned source didn’t shy away from mentioning that Ghada Aoun’s response included a verbal attack on Hajjar, the President of the Supreme Disciplinary Authority, Judge Suhail Abboud, and several public prosecutors across many regions. In addition, Aoun “conditioned the receipts of the lawsuits filed against her in exchange for Judge Suhail Abboud – as President of the Supreme Disciplinary Authority– stopping all investigations regarding her, and closing this file for good.”
However, the response of the “Judge of the Mandate” was deemed as an act of defiance against her immediate superior, prompting swift action from Judge Hajjar. The source revealed that he “referred her to the Judicial Inspection Authority, requested an investigation into her conduct, and initiated disciplinary measures against her.” The public prosecutor didn’t stop there, according to the source. He went further by “sending letters to the caretaker Minister of Justice, Henri Khoury, and to Judge Suhail Abboud, informing them of Aoun’s actions.” This underscores that the public prosecutor “has the authority to take specific actions within his jurisdiction against Judge Aoun, who has shown utter disregard for legal norms, hierarchical fundamental principles, and the institutional integrity of the judiciary, which require subordinates to respect their superiors and comply with their directives.”

How Israel’s Rafah Campaign Might Shape Hezbollah’s Operations
Hanin Ghaddar/The Washington Institute/May 18/2024
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/129884/129884/
The U.S.-Israel rift over how to handle southern Gaza could embolden the Lebanese group to further accelerate its already heightened tempo of operations, though drawing clear deterrent lines could help limit the escalation.
Since his first speech on the subject last November, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has linked the Gaza war to his group’s own confrontation with Israel, and this linkage is being reaffirmed by the militia’s latest actions. As the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) make their initial moves on the southern Gaza city of Rafah, Hezbollah is announcing the use of new weapons in attacks across the northern border, calling for further troop mobilizations, and giving other signals of imminent escalation. Whether these early moves are real or largely symbolic, the risk is high that the group will try to exploit the Rafah campaign in order to deepen Israel’s tensions with Washington and the wider international community. For its part, the Israeli government is caught in a difficult balancing act—it faces rising pressure from displaced northern residents to counter the Hezbollah threat so they can go back home, even as many IDF elements may now be tied down in Rafah for weeks or months. All of these factors will heighten the danger of miscalculation and all-out war unless tough diplomacy is brought to bear on the situation.
Escalation Since April
Hezbollah has relied on its core fighting force since the Gaza war broke out in October, but once Israel announced the beginning of the Rafah campaign, the group called for a general mobilization, which usually means activating its reserves. This could be just a rhetorical mobilization—rather than actually deploying all of its reserves to the battlefront, Hezbollah may simply be continuing its strategy of measured statements and actions in response to changing developments while steering clear of full mobilization and all-out war, at least for now. Yet regardless of the group’s intentions, changes on the ground over the past few days point to a growing risk of war whether the parties want it or not.
On May 13, the Lebanese television network al-Mayadeen reported that Hezbollah had revealed the use of a new heavy rocket for the first time (the “Jihad Mughniyah”). It also noted that a new drone (the “Suhab”) was being used to target Israel’s Iron Dome defense system.
On May 8, an IDF sergeant was killed during a Hezbollah strike on a base in Malkia, while two other soldiers were killed at their post near Metula on May 6, bringing the IDF’s total death toll on the Lebanon front to fourteen since October. Nine Israeli civilians have been killed as well.
These developments are unfolding in the wake of last month’s direct exchange of fire between Iran and Israel, which punctuated the significance and sensitivity of Hezbollah’s role as Tehran’s top regional proxy. The April 13 missile and drone attack on Israel exposed the inadequacy of Iran’s military capabilities—if it hopes to pierce allied defenses in a potential larger operation or future war, Tehran would likely need Hezbollah to join in with its huge arsenal. This realization also means that Hezbollah’s weapons remain a major defensive shield and insurance policy for Iran, one that the regime is loath to expend on behalf of Gaza or Hamas. At the same time, however, Hezbollah likely felt it could not keep taking damage from Israel indefinitely. The group therefore seemed to choose the middle path of visibly but cautiously escalating after April 13, and Israel has followed suit.
For example, Hezbollah has been using its third-generation drones for the first time. On April 17, it launched a relatively precise drone strike on the border town of Arab al-Aramshe, wounding eighteen Israelis (mostly IDF reservists). This followed a similar drone strike near Beit Hillel and Kiryat Shmona the previous day. In both cases, the group used a more advanced type of Ababil kamikaze drone capable of singling out specific targets.
On April 22, Hezbollah claimed to strike a base north of Acre, its deepest attack into Israel since the Gaza war began. In addition to suggesting that more sophisticated weapons were being fielded, this incident also signaled that the group was ready to adopt new rules of engagement and widen the zone of hostilities. Significantly, all of this happened shortly after four IDF soldiers were wounded while they were conducting a cross-border foray inside Lebanon.
Hezbollah’s Rafah Calculus
The onset of the Rafah campaign is vital to Hezbollah for two main reasons. First, international reactions to the operation have been very harsh due to the possible humanitarian consequences, leading Hezbollah to conclude that Israel may now be more isolated and vulnerable. Even the Biden administration publicly criticized the operation and halted the shipment of certain munitions to Israel—a decision that Hezbollah, Iran, and other actors likely read as a shift in U.S.-Israel relations, even though most if not all weapons transfers have reportedly resumed. In a May 13 speech following the IDF’s move on Rafah, Nasrallah reaffirmed the “categorical” connection between the Lebanese and Gaza fronts, noting that “the entire world is now talking about the right of the Palestinians to have a state” due to the collective efforts of Hamas, Hezbollah, and their allies in the “resistance.”
Second, although Israel may continue low-level military activity in Gaza for months to come, Rafah could spell the end of its main battle operations there. That means the IDF may soon be able to refocus more resources and attention on the Lebanon front with the goal of returning northern residents to their homes. Indeed, multiple indicators and statements imply an Israeli escalation against Hezbollah after Rafah.
If Nasrallah suspects that Israel is preparing to attack Hezbollah next, he will be forced to choose between two undesirable options: enter a full-scale war or accept the conditions that U.S. and French diplomats have been proposing recently. The latter scenario would mean withdrawing from the border (or, at least, committing to do so on paper) while figuring out a new deterrence equation.
Accordingly, Hezbollah may feel compelled to flex its muscles during the Rafah campaign in order to impose conditions on Israel, Washington, and Paris. The group would likely prefer to go back to the pre-October 7 status quo without being forced to publicly retreat from the border (even though Israel would presumably never accept that condition). It also needs to make sure that the IDF is deterred from directly hitting Iran or drastically curtailing the Iranian presence and influence in the region.
U.S. Policy Options
In the early months of the Gaza war, the Biden administration’s strong support for Israel, tough messaging to Iran and Hezbollah, and heavy deployment of warships and fighter jets to the region constituted a strong deterrent. Hezbollah realized the risks associated with challenging that stance. Today, robust U.S. deterrence remains crucial not only to preventing a wider war, but also to facilitating an effective ceasefire deal along the Israel-Lebanon border while potentially convincing Hezbollah to limit its escalation in the meantime. The group has already committed to stop its attacks once the Gaza war is over, so it is certainly amenable to the general idea of de-escalation.
To reach these goals, Washington should focus on several efforts:
Avoid offering political or economic compromises to Hezbollah and the many Lebanese state institutions it essentially controls. Indeed, U.S. officials should clearly and publicly state that no American-backed economic bailout will be forthcoming if the group escalates.
Increase pressure on all the pillars of Hezbollah’s power in Lebanon, including its military arsenal (by constraining the flow of weapons from Iran), its domestic political allies, and its hold over the Shia Muslim community.
Coordinate public pressure and statements with European and Arab partners to present a united front.
Maintain the heightened U.S. military presence in the region and conduct joint exercises with partner forces whenever possible.
Repeat President Biden’s “Don’t” warning from April even more loudly and clearly, specifying that Iran and its regional assets might not be spared from the consequences if Hezbollah escalates. This message would have the added benefit of showing that the administration’s current rift with Israel over weapons shipments will not apply in the event of any conflict against Hezbollah.
Indeed, the administration can continue advancing a ceasefire deal to prevent war while still making clear that it will have Israel’s back if war breaks out. On May 14, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan affirmed that the United States will not let Iran and its proxies succeed: “Hezbollah is attacking every day...We are working with Israel and other partners to protect against these threats and to prevent escalation into an all-out regional war, through a calibrated combination of diplomacy, deterrence, force posture adjustments, and use of force when necessary to protect our people and defend our interests and allies.”
Iran and Hezbollah need to hear such messages more often, particularly regarding Washington’s willingness to combine diplomacy with the use of force. Despite the lack of progress in reaching a Lebanon deal, the process has reassured Hezbollah—perhaps too well—that preventing war is the international community’s sole priority. It may therefore be useful to shake up this reassurance a bit by signaling that Israel would have full U.S. support if diplomacy fails, however undesirable the resultant conflict may be. If such warnings prove credible, Hezbollah may calculate that the risk is too great and scale back its near-term escalation accordingly. Indeed, the old Roman adage applies once again: if the Biden administration wants peace, it should prepare for war.
**Hanin Ghaddar is the Friedmann Senior Fellow in The Washington Institute’s Rubin Program on Arab Politics.
https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/how-israels-rafah-campaign-might-shape-hezbollahs-operations

Will Love Marriages Save Lebanon?
Fady Noun/This Is Beirut/May 18/2024
What if, for a Maronite, being Lebanese was simply a way of being Christian? And what if, for a Muslim or a Druze from Lebanon, being Lebanese was just a unique way of being Muslim? Not by abandoning their faith, but by infusing it with a spirit of peaceful, friendly, and inclusive benevolence.This is the impression conveyed by the photo of Walid Jumblatt and his wife, graciously holding candles and participating in the baptismal procession of their granddaughter, Sophie Jay, at Mar Antonios Kozhaya Church in the Holy Valley. Their daughter, Dalia Joumblatt, married Joey Daher, a man from the North and the son of Pierre Daher, CEO of LBC. In the church register, the Druze leader expressed his wish that this “blessed baptism” would serve as “a reaffirmation and continuation of the Reconciliation of the Mountain.” Orchestrated under his guidance and that of Patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir, this reconciliation in 2001 had bridged the divide between the Maronite and Druze communities, which had been at odds during the years of war.
There has been a noticeable rise in interfaith marriages within the political class in recent years, unequivocally driven by love. These unions signify the maturation of a generation of Lebanese individuals who are breaking free from traditional social and religious constraints.
Thus, among political families, Samy Gemayel, the grandson of Kataeb’s founder, Pierre Gemayel, married Carine Tadmouri, a young Sunni girl from Tripoli; Tony Frangieh, son of the Marada leader, married Lynn Zeidan (also Sunni); and the bride’s brother, Teymour Jumblatt, married Diana Zeaiter (a young Shiite girl). Within opposition MPs, significant mixed marriages have also taken place. Recently, Marc Daou (a Druze) married Christiana Parreira (a Christian), and Michel Douaihy (Maronite) married Sobhia Najjar (a young Shiite).
Mixed marriages are nothing new, but to an observer, these unions symbolize a societal phenomenon, a broader trend of refusing to let life be solely governed by the dictates of lineage and belonging to religiously-bound communities. Unfortunately, statistics on the percentage of mixed marriages date back to the 1970s and have become less relevant. At that time, they were around 10%. Since then, there have certainly been developments. Indeed, while the old rules persist and differences in education and social class remain, they are gradually diminishing in the wake of societal progress, rural migration, and the decline of illiteracy, particularly among women. Many young couples are now coming together in university lecture halls or corporate settings.
On another note, long before our time, political figures like Kamal Jumblatt placed their hopes in the establishment of mandatory civil marriage to strengthen social ties among Lebanese citizens. However, in the absence of such a law, which religious Islam has vehemently opposed on several occasions, interfaith marriages, as well as civil marriages outside of Lebanon, all of which are in a certain sense marriages of love, can only reinforce the sought-after unity and national solidarity. French philosopher Luc Ferry describes love marriage as “an invention” of liberal capitalism, attributing it to the creation of optimal economic conditions, enabling privacy, and fundamentally altering our relationships with others. In a recently discounted book available at Librairie Antoine bookstores (*), he notes that even architecturally, “doors and corridors were scarce in European houses before the 18th century, suggesting that the modern concept of intimacy had not yet fully emerged as we understand it today”. One might thus consider love marriage as a freedom attained through the progress of secularism and the Enlightenment. Undoubtedly, but for Ferry, paradoxically, along with “the logic of love,” have come the pains of divorce and mourning, and it is precisely because of this that the quest for spirituality resonates in the contemporary world.
He asserts that this logic “makes the question of mourning for a loved one, in whatever sense one understands it, whether in the form of separation or death, become the fundamental question, the stumbling block of our secular societies (…). Morality is of no help here. In facing the grief of losing a child, the grief of lost love, morality, and respect for human rights serve absolutely no purpose.” “Hence the quest for spirituality that fundamentally animates our contemporaries,” affirms this philosopher, always in search of wisdom. Thus, in a secularized world, the quest for meaning reasserts itself through the enigma of the ultimate ends. But with the richness of our various religious traditions, we are not to be pitied, quite the opposite. Far from prefab answers, love marriages therefore contribute, in their own way, to the building of Lebanon!
(*) Quel devenir pour le christianisme, a debate between Mgr Philippe Barbarin and Luc Ferry, from the “Espaces libres” collection, Albin Michel.

Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on May 18-19/2024
Israel pushes further into parts of north Gaza; new cracks in Netanyahu coalition
Nidal al-Mughrabi and Dan Williams/CAIRO/JERUSALEM (Reuters)/Sat, May 18, 2024
Israeli troops and tanks pushed on Saturday into parts of a congested northern Gaza Strip district that they had previously skirted in the more than seven-month-old war, killing and wounding dozens of Palestinians, medics and residents said.
Israel's forces also took over some ground in Rafah, a southern city by the Egyptian border that is packed with displaced people and where the launch this month of a long-threatened incursion to crush hold-outs of Palestinian Islamist militant group Hamas has alarmed Cairo and Washington. Exposing further cracks in Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government, Benny Gantz, a centrist member of the war cabinet, threatened to resign if the right-wing leader does not agree by June 8 to a day-after plan that would include how Gaza might be ruled after the war with Hamas.
In what Israeli media said was the result of intelligence gleaned during the latest incursions, the military announced the recovery of the body of a man who was among more than 250 hostages seized by Hamas in a cross-border rampage on Oct. 7 that triggered the war.Ron Binyamin's remains were located along with those of three other slain hostages whose repatriation was announced on Friday, the military said without providing further details. There was no immediate comment from Hamas. Israel has conducted renewed military sweeps this month of parts of northern Gaza where it had declared the end of major operations in January. At the time, it also predicted its forces would return to prevent a regrouping by the Palestinian Islamist group that rules Gaza. One site has been Jabalia, the largest of Gaza's eight historic refugee camps. On Saturday, troops and tanks edged into streets so far spared the ground offensive, residents said. In one strike, medics said 15 Palestinians were killed and dozens wounded. The Gaza health ministry and the Civil Emergency Service said teams received dozens of calls about possible casualties but were unable to carry out any searches because of the ongoing ground offensive and aerial bombardment. "Today is the most difficult in terms of the occupation bombardment, air strikes and tank shelling have going on almost non-stop," said one resident in Jabalia, Ibrahim Khaled, via a chat app.
"We know of dozens of people, martyrs (killed) and wounded, but no ambulance vehicle can get into the area," he told Reuters. The Israeli military said its forces have continued to operate in areas across Gaza including Jabalia and Rafah, carrying out what it called "precise operations against terrorists and infrastructure"."The IAF (air force) continues to operate in the Gaza Strip, and struck over 70 terror targets during the past day, including weapons storage facilities, military infrastructure sites, terrorists who posed a threat to IDF troops, and military compounds," the military said in a statement.
STRAINS IN ISRAELI COALITION
Netanyahu has faced criticism at home and abroad for failing to articulate an endgame more than seven months into the war. In a news conference, Gantz said he wanted the war cabinet to form a six-point plan in the next three weeks and that if his expectations are not met he would withdraw his centrist party from Netanyahu's emergency coalition. Gantz said his proposal would include creating a temporary U.S.-European-Arab-Palestinian system of civil administration for Gaza while Israel retains security control. Though Gantz is Netanyahu's most formidable rival in opinion polls, were he to leave the government that would not be enough to bring about its collapse, as remaining parties would still give the premier a comfortable parliamentary majority. Yet Gantz's challenge shows increased strain on Israel's coalition, which is dominated by far-right parties. Defence Minister Yoav Gallant on Wednesday demanded clarity on post-war plans and for Netanyahu to forswear any military reoccupation of Gaza. Armed wings of Hamas, the Islamic Jihad, and Fatah said fighters attacked Israeli forces in Jabalia and Rafah with anti-tank rockets, mortar bombs, and explosive devices already planted in some of the roads, killing and wounding many soldiers. Israel's military said 281 soldiers have been killed in fighting since the first ground incursions in Gaza on Oct 20. At least 35,386 Palestinians have been killed in Israeli strikes since Oct. 7, according to the enclave's health ministry, while aid agencies have warned repeatedly of widespread hunger and dire shortages of fuel and medical supplies. In the Hamas cross-border attack on Oct. 7, 1,200 people were killed, according to Israeli tallies. About 125 people are believed to remain in captivity in Gaza. In Rafah, where Israeli tanks thrust into some of the eastern suburbs and clashed with Palestinian fighters, residents said Israeli bombing from the air and ground persisted through the night into Saturday morning. Rafah had been sheltering more than one million displaced Gazans. UNRWA, the main U.N. aid agency for Palestinians, said on Saturday that nearly 800,000 Palestinians have fled the city since Israel launched its ground operation there on May 6. Israel says it must capture Rafah to destroy Hamas and ensure the country's security.

Fierce fighting in northern Gaza as aid rolls off US-built pier
REUTERS/May 18, 2024
CAIRO: Israeli forces battled Hamas fighters in the narrow alleyways of Jabalia in northern Gaza on Friday in some of the fiercest engagements since they returned to the area a week ago, while in the south militants attacked tanks massing around Rafah. Residents said Israeli armor had thrust as far as the market at the heart of Jabalia, the largest of Gaza’s eight historic refugee camps, and that bulldozers were demolishing homes and shops in the path of the advance. “Tanks and planes are wiping out residential districts and markets, shops, restaurants, everything. It is all happening before the one-eyed world,” Ayman Rajab, a resident of western Jabalia, said via a chat app. Israel had said its forces cleared Jabalia months earlier in the Gaza war, triggered by the deadly Hamas-led attacks on southern Israel on Oct. 7, but said last week it was returning to prevent Islamist militants re-grouping there. In southern Gaza bordering Egypt, thick smoke rose over Rafah, where an escalating Israeli assault has sent hundreds of thousands of people fleeing from what was one of the few remaining places of refuge. “People are terrified and they’re trying to get away,” Jens Laerke, UN humanitarian office spokesperson, said in Geneva, adding that most were following orders to move north toward the coast but that there were no safe routes or destinations. As the fighting raged, the US military said trucks started moving aid ashore from a temporary pier, the first to reach the besieged enclave by sea in weeks.
The World Food Programme, which expects food, water, shelter and medical supplies to arrive through the floating dock, said the aid was transported to its warehouses in Deir Al Balah in central Gaza and told partners it was ready for distribution. The United Nations earlier reiterated that truck convoys by land — disrupted this month by the assault on Rafah — were still the most efficient way of getting aid in. “To stave off the horrors of famine, we must use the fastest and most obvious route to reach the people of Gaza – and for that, we need access by land now,” deputy UN spokesperson Farhan Haq said.
US aid was arriving in Cyprus for delivery to Gaza via the new pier, Washington said. Hamas demanded an end to Israel’s siege and accused Washington of complicity with an Israeli policy of “starvation and blockade.”The White House said US national security adviser Jake Sullivan would visit Israel on Sunday and stress the need for a targeted offensive against Hamas militants rather than a full-scale assault on Rafah. A group of US medical workers left the Gaza Strip after getting stuck at the hospital where they were providing care, the White House said.
Humanitarian fears
The Israel Defense Forces said troops killed more than 60 militants in Jabalia in recent days and located a weapons warehouse in a “divisional-level offensive.”A divisional operation would typically involve several brigades of thousands of troops each, making it one of the biggest of the war. “The 7th Brigade’s fire control center directed dozens of airstrikes, eliminated terrorists and destroyed terrorist infrastructure,” the IDF said. At least 35,303 Palestinians have now been killed, according to figures from the enclave’s health ministry, while aid agencies have warned repeatedly of widespread hunger and dire shortages of fuel and medical supplies. Israel says it must capture Rafah to destroy Hamas and ensure the country’s safety. In the Hamas attack on Oct. 7, 1,200 people died in Israel and 253 were taken hostage, according to Israeli tallies. About 128 hostages are still being held in Gaza. Israel said on Friday that its forces retrieved the bodies of three people killed at the Nova music festival in Israel on Oct. 7 and taken into Gaza. In response, Hamas said negotiations were the only way for Israel to retrieve hostages alive: “The enemy will not get its prisoners except as lifeless corpses or through an honorable exchange deal for our people and our resistance.”Talks on a ceasefire have been at an impasse.
’Tragic war’
Israeli tanks and warplanes bombarded parts of Rafah on Friday, while the armed wings of Hamas and Islamic Jihad said they fired anti-tank missiles and mortars at forces massing to the east, southeast and inside the Rafah border crossing with Egypt. UNRWA, the main UN aid agency for Palestinians, said more than 630,000 people had fled Rafah since the offensive began on May 6. “They’re moving to areas where there is no water — we’ve got to truck it in — and people aren’t getting enough food,” Sam Rose, director of planning at UNRWA, told Reuters on Friday by telephone from Rafah, where he said it was eerily quiet. At the International Court of Justice, or World Court, in The Hague, where South Africa has accused Israel of violating the Genocide Convention, Israeli Justice Ministry official Gilad Noam defended the operation. The South African legal team, which set out its case for fresh emergency measures the previous day, framed the Israeli military operation as part of a genocidal plan aimed at bringing about the destruction of the Palestinian people.

Arab-American leaders meet with Blinken over Gaza
RAY HANANIA/Arab News/May 18, 2024
CHICAGO: A group of Arab-American leaders met with Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Washington D.C. on Friday night, demanding that the US “stop the genocide” in Gaza and define a clear path to “Palestinian liberation.”The group was led by Arab American Institute President James Zogby and included several key organizations such as the American Federation of Ramallah, the Arab American Chamber of Commerce, Arab America, and the US Palestinian Council. In a statement sent to Arab News, organizers said they demanded that the Biden administration endorse an “immediate ceasefire” in Gaza; call for the “return of all hostages,” including Israelis taken on Oct. 7 and Palestinians being held without judicial process; support the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza; ensure “unimpeded” humanitarian assistance to its civilian population; and cease weapons deliveries to Israel. Israel has received more than $40 billion in aid from the Biden administration. “When we met with Secretary Blinken in October of 2023, I noted that Israel’s indiscriminate bombing of Gaza had killed 5,000 Palestinians. I urged an immediate ceasefire to save lives. I also noted that Israel and the US were operating under the mistaken belief that the war could be won, with the likely outcome being the emergence of Hamas 2.0,” Zogby said. “We come back seven months later with over 36,000 dead, most of Gaza’s homes and infrastructure destroyed, millions of Palestinian lives shattered, and Gaza on the verge of starvation.”After the meeting, Zogby called US efforts to urge Israeli restraint “feeble,” adding: “Once again, we are calling on the Biden administration to demand an immediate ceasefire to end the unfolding genocide, to save Palestinian lives, and salvage whatever remains of the United States’ tattered image across the Arab world.”Arab and Muslim leaders who met with US President Joe Biden last month in Washington D.C. left disappointed by his failure to enforce a ceasefire. Several attendees walked out in disgust, including Dr. Thaer Ahmad, who told reporters after the April 2 meeting that he was leaving “out of respect for my community.”After Friday’s meeting, USPC President John Dabeet said attendees “asked Secretary Blinken and the administration to subject any military assistance to Israel to strict oversight to ensure that it is fully compliant with US law, international law and human rights conventions.” Bilal Hammoud, director of the AACC, said the Biden administration “has failed to act urgently and within its values to take meaningful measures that ensure the freedom, equality and prosperity of the Palestinian people, resulting in the loss of tens of thousands of innocent lives. “There must be a full stop of US military funding that is threatening the security and stability of the whole region, including the cessation of attacks on sovereign Arab nations.”

Israeli forces kill senior Palestinian militant in Jenin: army
AFP/May 18, 2024
RAMALLAH: The Israeli military said on Saturday it killed a senior Palestinian militant during an air strike on an “operations center” in the occupied West Bank city of Jenin. “A number of significant terrorists were inside the compound,” the Israeli Defense Forces said in a statement posted to Telegram. It said the strike by a fighter jet and helicopter killed Islam Khamayseh, a “senior terrorist operative in the Jenin Camp” who was responsible for a series of attacks in the area. The Al-Quds Brigade, the armed wing of militant group Palestinian Islamic Jihad, confirmed in a statement that Khamayseh was killed and several others wounded during an Israeli raid on Friday night. It said Khamayseh was a leader of the Jenin Battalion, which is affiliated with Islamic Jihad. The Palestinian Ministry of Health said one person was killed and eight were wounded and receiving hospital treatment as a result of Israel’s operation in Jenin on Friday night. Israel has occupied the West Bank since 1967 and its troops routinely carry out incursions into areas such as Jenin, which are nominally under the Palestinian Authority’s security control. The West Bank has seen a recent surge in violence, particularly since the Israel-Hamas war erupted on October 7.
More than 500 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli forces or settlers across the West Bank since October 7, according to Palestinian officials, and at least 20 Israelis have been killed over the same period, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures. The Gaza Strip has been at war since Hamas’s unprecedented attack on October 7 resulted in the deaths of more than 1,170 people in Israel, most of them civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures. Israel’s retaliatory offensive on the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip has killed at least 35,303 people, most of them civilians, according to the Hamas-run territory’s health ministry.

Austria to resume aid to UN agency for Palestinians
AFP/May 18, 2024
(UNRWA) employees may have participated in the Hamas attacks on October 7 that triggered the war in the Gaza Strip. In the weeks that followed, numerous donor states, including Austria, suspended or paused some $450 million in funding. Many, including Germany, Sweden, Canada and Japan, had since resumed funding, while others have continued to hold out. “After analizing the action plan in detail” submitted by UNRWA “to improve the functioning of the organization,” Austria has decided to “release the funds,” its foreign ministry said in a statement. A total of 3.4 million euros ($3.7 million) in funds have been budgeted for 2024, and the first payment is expected to be made in the summer, the statement said. “Some of the Austrian funds will be used in the future to improve internal control mechanisms at UNRWA,” it added. Austria said it will “closely monitor” the implementation of the action plan with other international partners, noting that “a lot of trust had been squandered.” The Alpine country said it has substantially increased support for the suffering Palestinian population in Gaza and the region since 7 October, making 32 million euros ($34.8 million) in humanitarian aid available to other international aid organizations. The Hamas attack on October 7 resulted in the death of more than 1,170 people in Israel, most of them civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures. Israel’s campaign in Gaza has since killed at least 35,303 people, also mostly civilians, according to data provided by the health ministry in the Hamas-run territory.

Despite polls, Biden aides insist Gaza campus protests will not hurt reelection bid
Nandita Bose/WASHINGTON (Reuters)/May 18, 2024
Several top White House aides say they are confident protests across U.S. college campuses against Israel's offensive in Gaza will not translate into significantly fewer votes for Joe Biden in November's election, despite polls showing many Democrats are deeply unhappy about the U.S. president's policy on the war. The White House optimism on the issue, which is shared by many in the Biden campaign, runs contrary to dire warnings from some Democratic strategists and youth organizers who warn misjudging the situation could cost Biden dearly in a tight race with Republican rival Donald Trump.
Several aides told Reuters they are advising Biden to remain above the fray, rather than directly engage with the relatively small groups of protesters on college campuses, arguing their numbers are too insignificant to harm the president's reelection campaign. Faced with a choice between Biden and Trump in November, many officials remain confident even Democrats who oppose U.S. policy will choose Biden. Reuters interviewed nearly a dozen top White House officials in recent days, but only two expressed concern about the impact of the protests and Biden's handling of the issue. The issue returns to the spotlight Sunday, when Biden makes the commencement address at Morehouse College, over some objections by students and faculty, and a warning from the college's president that the ceremony will stop if there are protests. Most officials Reuters spoke to said they believe housing costs and inflation were the issues top of mind for young voters, not the war in Gaza, pointing to a recent Harvard poll that ranks Israel/Palestine 15th on a list of issues, after taxes, gun violence and jobs. Several aides refer to the protesters as "activists" rather than students. Asked for comment on the issue, White House senior deputy press secretary Andrew Bates said Biden understands this is a painful moment for many communities and is listening. He has said too many civilians have died in the "heartbreaking" conflict and that more must be done to prevent the loss of innocent lives, Bates added. Biden and Trump are nearly tied in national polls, and Trump has the edge in the battleground states that will decide the election, multiple recent polls show. On economic issues like inflation, Trump scores higher with voters overall than Biden.
A new Reuters/Ipsos poll found Democrats deeply divided over Biden's handling of both the war in Gaza and the U.S. campus protests against it, with 44% of registered Democrats disapproving of Biden's handling of the crisis, and 51% of his handling of the protests. Young voters still favor Biden, but support has dropped significantly since 2020, polls show. A Reuters/Ipsos poll in March showed Americans aged 18-29 favored Biden over Trump by just 3 percentage points - 29% to 26% - with the rest favoring another candidate or unsure if anyone would get their vote. Two White House officials Reuters spoke to emphasized Biden's support among young voters is not where it was in 2020 and said they worry the administration is not taking the drop seriously enough. With over 35,000 Palestinians killed in Gaza since war began in October, U.S. support for Israel's government could weigh heavily on the presidential election in November, they said. "There is almost a level of defiance when it comes to some of the president's closest advisers on this issue," said a senior White House official with direct knowledge of the matter, who did not wish to be named. "They think the best approach is to simply steer clear and let it pass."
BIDEN SPEAKS CAUTIOUSLY
Protests over Israel's war in Gaza have broken out at more than 60 colleges and universities this year, disrupted Biden's events around the country, pushed Democrats in key battleground states to vote "uncommitted" and divided the Democratic party. Biden, who is known for saying what he thinks, even when it's not politically beneficial, has been cautious on the issue of protests over Gaza. He spoke in early May on the importance of following the law, while defending free speech and later on addressed the threat of antisemitism on college campuses. Both times, he mostly avoided the issue that has sparked the protests - how young Americans feel about his support for Israel. But he also said bluntly that protests will not change his Middle East policy. Groups organizing the protests say that a recent halt to some weapons to Israel was too little too late, and are planning fresh demonstrations, though the summer break may quieten action on campuses. Michele Weindling, political director of the climate-focused youth group the Sunrise Movement, said "young people are incredibly disillusioned, they are angry at the way the president has treated this conflict.""A huge risk right now is that young voters will completely stay out of the electoral system this November, or deliberately vote against Biden out of anger," Weindling said. That has the potential to cost Biden dearly, given 61% of the more than half of Americans aged 18 to 29 that voted in the 2020 general election voted Democratic, a Tufts University research group found. The youth turnout was up 11 points from 2016.
GAZA NOT A TOP ISSUE
Republicans both overwhelmingly disapprove of the protests and Biden's handling of the war, a Reuters/Ipsos poll published this week shows. Some Republicans have called for him to send National Guard troops on to campuses. But until a day before Biden delivered his first speech on the protests on May 2, he remained unsure he needed to address the issue, two officials said. Biden asked his team to put together "something rudimentary," so he could edit and change it, which he did that evening, one of the officials said. He did not make the final decision to speak until the morning, after violence broke out on the UCLA campus, the official added. The Harvard youth poll showing Israel/Gaza is low on youth concerns is being circulated at internal meetings at the campaign and the White House and is in line with private data the White House has seen, the first official said. The president doesn't speak about every issue in the news, on purpose, another White House official said. It "doesn't always happen, no matter what kind of news it is, whether it's the news of the day or the week or the month," he said.

Gaza Health Ministry: 35,386 Palestinians killed during Israeli attacks since Oct. 7
Reuters/May 18, 2024
The Health Ministry in Gaza said in a statement on Saturday that at least 35,386 Palestinians have been killed and 79,366 injured during the ongoing Israeli military assault on the sector since Oct. 7. The ministry stated in the announcement that hospitals have received 83 dead and 105 injured in the past 24 hours.

Israel eyes scrapping free trade deal with Turkiye
MENEKSE TOKYAY/Arab News/May 18, 2024
ANKARA: After Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich announced on Thursday that Israel intends to scrap its free trade agreement with Turkiye and impose a 100 percent tariff on other imports from the country in retaliation for Ankara’s recent decision to halt exports to Israel, eyes are now turning to imminent implications for regional trade. The plan, which aims to reduce Israel’s dependence on Turkiye, has not been finalized yet and will have to be submitted to the Cabinet for approval. If approved, all reduced tariffs on goods imported from Turkiye under the current free trade agreement would be abolished, while a tariff of 100 percent of the value of the goods would be imposed on all imported products, in addition to the existing tariff. Experts note that trade ties between the two countries had been mostly insulated from political disagreements in the past. Trade continued when diplomatic relations hit rock bottom, especially between 2010 and 2020, a politically tense period during which parties chose not to burn “trade bridges.”But this time, Turkiye’s continuation of trade relations with Israel while at the same time being vocal in denouncing its war in Gaza stirred public reaction significantly ahead of the March 31 local elections, when large crowds and some Islamist breakaway parties criticized the government for not taking a hardline stance against Israel and for not matching rhetoric with action. In late April, Turkiye, whose bilateral trade with Israel was worth about $7 billion a year, announced it would impose trade restrictions on 54 products exported to Israel until a permanent ceasefire in Gaza was declared.The product range was diverse, from cement to dry food, iron, steel, and electrical devices.However, companies have three months to fulfill existing orders via third countries. In his statement, Smotrich described Turkiye’s move as a serious violation of international trade agreements to which Ankara is a signatory. He added that Israel’s latest decision would last as long as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan remained in power.Turkiye and Israel have had a free trade agreement since the mid-1990s, making Ankara a key commercial partner for Israeli importers. Relatively cheap imports were transited quite quickly, and Turkiye was Israel’s fifth-largest source of imported goods.
Israel mainly imported steel, iron, motor vehicles, electrical devices, machinery, plastics, and cement products, as well as textiles, olive oil, and fruits and vegetables from Turkiye, while Turkiye mostly bought chemicals, metals, and some other industrial products from the Middle Eastern country, with Turkiye’s trade with Israel tilted in Ankara’s favor. “Since Erdogan announced that Turkiye would impose a trade ban on imports and exports from Israel, Israeli officials have been trying to determine how best to respond,” Gabriel Mitchell, a policy fellow at the Mitvim Institute, told Arab News.
“The first was Foreign Minister Israel Katz, who criticized Turkiye’s decision and later announced that Turkiye had lifted many of the restrictions. This put pressure — once again — on Erdogan to show the Turkish public that he is willing to ‘put his money where his mouth is’ with Israel and forced the Turkish government to deny these rumors,” he said, adding that it also compelled “Erdogan to be even more vocal in his criticism of Israeli policy.”According to Mitchell, Smotrich — who is a minister but not a member of the Likud party — saw this as an opportunity to make his own headlines in proposing the move to cancel the free trade agreement. As this move requires Cabinet approval, Mitchell said he would be very surprised if it were approved. “It would be an escalatory step and undoubtedly have serious short-term economic consequences,” he said.
“It is important to bear in mind the domestic situation in Israel. There is increasing pressure on Netanyahu, and as a result, the more radical voices feel that by pushing populist policies, they are in a win-win situation: Either their policy is adopted, and they get credit for the idea, or it is rejected by others in the government, and they can criticize them for being soft,” Mitchell added. “Erdogan is very unpopular in Israel — arguably the most unpopular regional leader — so some believe that while there are voices in Israel that would oppose the decision, there are many that would go along with it without really understanding the economic implications.”Mitchell also noted a caveat, saying that the free trade agreement would be canceled until Erdogan steps down. “I don’t understand what that means, given that such agreements are made bilaterally. Who is to assume that in 2028, Erdogan will no longer be president, and whoever succeeds him will be interested in signing a free trade agreement with Israel? It is a risky approach,” he said. “My final point, and it is worth considering, is that Smotrich also wrote (in) a letter to Netanyahu that ‘representatives of Turkiye’s president, the anti-Semitic enemy of Israel, Erdogan’ were involved in the hostage negotiations — so it all gets mixed up and confused,” Mitchell added.
Continuing its strong rhetoric, Turkiye recently announced that it would join South Africa’s genocide case against Israel at the International Court of Justice. From its side, Israel filed a complaint to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development against Turkiye over the latter’s decision to suspend trade with Israel. Sinan Ulgen, director of the Istanbul-based think-tank EDAM and a visiting fellow at Carnegie Europe, says Israel’s latest decision should be seen as an economic and political response to the Turkish government’s earlier decision to impose a trade embargo on Israel. “The economic impact can be significant, especially on some of Israel’s critical products imported from Turkiye, such as construction materials, including cement. However, this does not mean Israel couldn’t import these items from other countries. “But for Israel, it would be a costly trade diversion, and it will increase the internal cost of these products and possibly have an impact on domestic inflation,” he told Arab News. Israel imports about a third of its cement and almost 70 percent of its iron construction materials from Turkiye. “Another consequence is that unlike Turkiye’s decision to impose a temporary trade embargo with conditions, Israel is now moving in the direction of essentially imposing a permanent and lasting measure, which is to cancel a free-trade agreement that has been in place since the mid-1990s,” Ulgen said. After the Turkish boycott of all trade with Israel, prices, especially in the housing sector, are expected to increase gradually, pushing up the cost of living in Israel. Ulgen noted, however, that Turkish products could still indirectly reach Israel through third countries, for example, by transiting from the EU because Turkiye and the EU have a customs union. However, alternative transportation trade routes that circumvent the restrictions can be longer, more complex, and costlier.

Israeli leaders split over post-war Gaza governance
AFP/May 18, 2024
JERUSALEM: New divisions have emerged among Israel’s leaders over post-war Gaza’s governance, with an unexpected Hamas fightback in parts of the Palestinian territory piling pressure on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The Israeli army has been battling Hamas militants across Gaza for more than seven months while also exchanging near-daily fire with Iran-backed Hezbollah forces along the northern border with Lebanon. But after Hamas fighters regrouped in northern Gaza, where Israel previously said the group had been neutralized, broad splits emerged in the Israeli war cabinet in recent days. Netanyahu came under personal attack from Defense Minister Yoav Gallant for failing to rule out an Israeli government in Gaza after the war. The Israeli premier’s outright rejection of post-war Palestinian leadership in Gaza has broken a rift among top politicians wide open and frustrated relations with top ally the United States. Experts say the lack of clarity only serves to benefit Hamas, whose leader has insisted no new authority can be established in the territory without its involvement. “Without an alternative to fill the vacuum, Hamas will continue to grow,” International Crisis Group analyst Mairav Zonszein said.
Emmanuel Navon, a lecturer at Tel Aviv University, echoed this sentiment. “If only Hamas is left in Gaza, of course they are going to appear here and there and the Israeli army will be forced to chase them around,” said Navon. “Either you establish an Israeli military government or an Arab-led government.”
Gallant said in a televised address on Wednesday: “I call on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to make a decision and declare that Israel will not establish civilian control over the Gaza strip.”The premier’s war planning also came under recent attack by army chief Herzi Halevi as well as top Shin Bet security agency officials, according to Israeli media reports. Netanyahu is also under pressure from Washington to swiftly bring an end to the conflict and avoid being mired in a long counterinsurgency campaign. Washington has previously called for a “revitalized” form of the Palestinian Authority to govern Gaza after the war. But Netanyahu has rejected any role for the PA in post-war Gaza, saying Thursday that it “supports terror, educates terror, finances terror.”Instead, Netanyahu has clung to his steadfast aim of “eliminating” Hamas, asserting that “there’s no alternative to military victory.”Experts say confidence in Netanyahu is running thin. “With Gallant’s criticism of Netanyahu’s failure to plan for the day after in terms of governing Gaza, some real fissures are beginning to emerge in the Israeli war cabinet,” Colin P. Clarke, director of policy and research at the Soufan Group think tank, wrote on X, formerly Twitter. “I’m not sure I know of many people, including the most ardent Israel supporters, who have confidence in Bibi,” he said, using Netanyahu’s nickname. The Gaza war broke out after Hamas’s attack on southern Israel which resulted in the deaths of more than 1,170 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally of Israeli official figures. The militants also seized about 250 hostages, 125 of whom Israel estimates remain in Gaza, including 37 the military says are dead. Israel’s military retaliation has killed at least 35,386 people, mostly civilians, according to the Hamas-run Gaza’s health ministry, and an Israeli siege has brought dire food shortages and the threat of famine. Many Israelis supported Netanyahu’s blunt goals to seek revenge on Hamas in the aftermath of the October 7 attack. But now, hopes have faded for the return of the hostages and patience in Netanyahu may be running out, experts said. On Friday, the army announced it had recovered bodies of three hostages who were killed during the October 7 attack. After Israeli forces entered the far southern city of Rafah, where more than a million displaced Gazans were sheltering, talks mediated by Egypt, the United States and Qatar to release the hostages have ground to a standstill. “The hostage deal is at a total impasse — you can no longer provide the appearance of progress,” said Zonszein of the International Crisis Group. “Plus the breakdown with the US and the fact that Egypt has refused to pass aid through Rafah — all those things are coming to a head.”

Spanish PM Pedro Sanchez leads EU in push to recognise Palestine as a sovereign state
Jesús Maturana/Euronews via Yahoo/May 18, 2024
Sanchez defended the decision "out of moral conviction", considering it "a just cause" and the "only way" to achieve peace and security in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Ireland, Malta and Slovenia are expected to follow suit, and have already agreed to take the first steps in that direction. In a phone call on Saturday, Taoiseach Simon Harris and Norwegian Prime Minister, Jonas Gahr Store agreed to remain in close consultation in the days ahead. Norway's parliament adopted a government proposal in November for the country to be prepared to recognise an independent Palestinian state.
Harris and Store said that the deteriorating humanitarian conditions in Gaza underscored the need for an immediate ceasefire and for unhindered access for aid. Earlier this week, Slovenian Prime Minister Robert Golob said his country would recognise Palestine’s statehood by mid-June. Sanchez meanwhile criticised the Popular Party for refusing to recognise the Palestinian state and responded to former President Jose Maria Aznar by stating that "Spain will recognise it". The prime minister also acknowledged his party's positive result in the Catalan elections of 12 May and said that Salvador Illa would make a good President of the Generalitat.
Spain would be the 10th European country to recognise the Palestinian State
There are already nine countries in the EU that have recognised Palestine as a state and Spain would be the tenth. On the list are: Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Hungary, Malta, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Sweden and Slovakia. Sanchez confirmed on Friday that Spain's recognition will not be made at Tuesday's Council of Ministers, as had been suggested. The prime minister said that his position on the Israel-Hamas conflict is much like his country's support for Ukraine following Russia's invasion more than two years ago. He stressed that Spain demanded ''respect for international law from Russia, and from Israel, for the violence to end, the recognition of two states, and for humanitarian aid to reach Gaza''. Sanchez added his voice to a chorus of other European leaders and government officials who have said that they could support a two-state solution in the Middle East, as international frustration grows with Israel's military actions in the Palestinian territories. French President Emmanuel Macron said last month that it's not ''taboo'' for France to recognise a Palestinian state. British Foreign Minister David Cameron said that the United Kingdom could officially recognise a Palestinian state after a cease-fire in the Israel-Hamas war. Five months after Hamas militants attacked Israel on 7 October, killing about 1,200 people and taking 250 others hostage, the Israeli military has responded with air and ground assaults that have killed more than 35,386 Palestinians, according to the Gaza Health Ministry. Why does Spain support recognition of Palestine as a sovereign state?
Spain has been historically close to the Arab world and, as such, the nation is actively trying to push a line more favourable to Palestinian aspirations within the European Union. In a speech made shortly after his re-election last year, Sanchez promised that his new government's "first commitment" on foreign policy would be to "work in Europe and Spain to recognise the Palestinian state''. At the same time, he said he was "on the side of Israel" in the face of "the terrorist attack" of 7 October, but also called on the Jewish state to put an end to the "indiscriminate killing of Palestinians".
The stance comes at a time when many Western countries are facing criticism in the Arab world for being seemingly too favourable towards Israel. In 2014, under a conservative government, the Spanish Parliament adopted a resolution calling for the recognition of the Palestinian state, supported by all political parties.
The vote, though, was non-binding and not followed by any action. In Europe, several countries have taken this step in a more effective way. They include Sweden, Hungary, Malta and Romania - but none of the main EU member states have done so, meaning that Spain could become a pioneer.
Geographically close to the Maghreb region of North Africa, Spain turned to Arab countries during the Franco dictatorship which ran from 1939 to 1975 in order to circumvent its isolation in the West. It was not until 1986, however, that the nation established official relations with Israel. The relatively late date was a consequence of tensions born from Israel's opposition to Spain's entry into the UN at the end of the Second World War, due to its proximity to Nazi Germany. In 1993, they played a role in the Oslo Accords, through which Israel and the Palestine Liberation Organization mutually recognised each other as part of the peace process.
Overall, though, Spain remains perceived by many as a pro-Arab country. At the end of October, a mini-diplomatic crisis even broke out with the Israeli embassy after controversial statements by a far-left Spanish minister who spoke of a "planned genocide" in Gaza. With much of Europe firmly pro-Israel, Isaias Barrenada, a professor at the Complutense University of Madrid, said it will be an uphill battle for Sanchez. ''It is difficult to imagine that Spain has the capacity to reorient the European position," Barrenada told AFP, but "it can contribute to showing that there are sensitivities within the EU.''

Israeli strike kills Palestinian militant, wounds eight people in West Bank
Ali Sawafta/Reuters/May 17, 2024
A Palestinian militant was killed and eight other people wounded on Friday in an Israeli air strike on the Jenin refugee camp in the occupied West Bank, the Palestinian health ministry and Israeli military said. The armed wing of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) group named the killed man as member Islam Khamayseh. The Palestinian health ministry said the eight wounded people were in stable condition and receiving treatment at hospitals. Reuters could not immediately confirm their identities. The Israeli military said a fighter jet and helicopter conducted the strike, a rarity in the West Bank, where violence had been surging long before the Gaza war. Israel said it struck a compound used as an operations center by militants and confirmed the killing of Khamayseh, who it said was responsible for several attacks against Israelis. The strike "was carried out to remove an imminent threat," it added, without disclosing details on the threat. Images circulating on social media, which Reuters could not immediately verify, showed a cloud of smoke over the refugee camp, which has over the years become a densely populated urban area. Residents of the camp said a house was targeted. According to the U.N. agency for Palestinian refugees UNRWA, some 23,600 residents of the camp were registered as refugees - people who were expelled or fled their homes during the 1948 war surrounding Israel's creation, or their descendants. The West Bank is among territories Israel seized in a 1967 Middle East war. The Palestinians want it to be the core of an independent Palestinian state. Some Palestinian groups like the PIJ have engaged in armed struggle to confront Israel's decades-long military occupation.

Ukraine reports no artillery shortages for first time in war, says Zelenskyy
Rebecca Rommen/Business Insider/May 18, 2024
Zelenskyy says Ukraine will lose the war without help from the USScroll back up to restore default view. Ukraine reported no shortages of artillery shells for the first time, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said. Ukrainian forces have been suffering from severe shortages of shells in recent months. Ukraine has been unable to fire more than 2,000 artillery shells a day, its defense minister said. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said earlier this week that Ukraine's forces had reported no shortages of artillery shells for the first time since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022, the Kyiv Independent reported. "For the first time during the war, none of the brigades complained that there were no artillery shells," Zelenskyy said on May 16. According to reports, the refreshed artillery is now helping to blunt Russian advances around Kharkiv, Ukraine's second city.
In sharp contrast to battles in January-April, during which the US halted all military assistance to Ukraine, Ukrainian soldier and milblogger Stanislav Osman, author of the popular Hovoryat Snaiper channel, observed that Russian forces attacking in the Kharkiv sector have been facing punishing artillery fire and even attack helicopter strikes, The Kyiv Post reported. Ukraine's armed forces have faced severe artillery shortages in recent months, partly due to a US military aid package being stalled in Congress. Ukraine's defense minister, Rustem Umerov, wrote in a letter to EU counterparts in February that the shortages had left Ukraine unable to fire more than 2,000 artillery shells a day, roughly one-third of Russia's capacity. Ukraine has also lost significant territory in eastern regions since late 2023, and it has blamed munitions shortages on major losses, such as the city of Avdiivka in the Donetsk region. Despite President Zelenskyy's upbeat messaging this week, a frontline report by BBC News this week appeared to suggest shells could still be in short supply for some units. Petr Pavel, the president of the Czech Republic, told reporters in March that eighteen countries are participating in the initiative to fund the purchases.
The release of $61 billion in US aid in April also boosted Ukraine's hard-pressed forces battling the Russian invasion.The release of $61 billion in US aid in April was also a boost to Ukraine's hard-pressed forces battling the Russian invasion. Despite this, Russian artillery will likely outmatch Ukraine's for most of 2024, officials and analysts told Foreign Policy. Russia can produce around 250,000 artillery munitions a month — or around 3 million a year, CNN reported, citing NATO intelligence estimates of Russian defense production. Russian forces are now focused on conducting an offensive on the northeastern Ukrainian region of Kharkiv, which Russian President Vladimir Putin claims is part of an attempt to create a "buffer zone" to protect Russian border areas from Ukrainian attacks. Gen. Christopher Cavoli said earlier this week that Russia likely does "not have sufficient forces to achieve a 'strategic breakthrough' in Ukraine," however, per the Institute for the Study of War think tank. He added that he expected Ukrainian forces would "hold the line" near Kharkiv City.

Russia is finally getting serious about its war, and it spells trouble for Ukraine
Jake Epstein/Business Insider/May 18, 2024
Russia's war machine looks different today than it did at the start of the conflict.
Moscow has new defense leadership in place and is setting the stage for an offensive this summer. Putin is finally getting serious about the fight, and it's not good for Ukraine. It took Russia more than two years of brutal war, thousands of armored vehicles damaged and destroyed, an estimated 450,000 casualties, and tens of billions of dollars to get to this point, but Moscow seems to finally be taking its war seriously. Much of the war in Ukraine has gone poorly for Russia. Its death toll alone — by many estimates more than 50,000 troops — is staggering. But Russian President Vladimir Putin's war machine looks very different today than it did at the start of the conflict. The country's defense-industrial base has begun firing on all cylinders, and Putin recently installed an economist as his defense minister to boost the mass production of weaponry, especially firepower. Moscow blunted Ukraine's counteroffensive last summer with a strong defense while rebuilding stockpiles and transitioning to a wartime economy. It has effectively exploited Ukraine's material, manpower, and industrial disadvantages over the spring, especially as Kyiv's Western partners floundered, and it is now setting the stage for what could be a major, multi-pronged offensive this summer. Its forces have also found and copy-catted tactics to drive Ukraine back. Russia finally appears committed to its ambitions in Ukraine — and, as some fear, beyond — and it comes even as Ukraine's weapons stocks are being reloaded after US lawmakers passed a major Ukraine aid deal.
"The Russians are still dangerous and they're learning," George Barros, the geospatial-intelligence team lead and a Russia analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, told Business Insider. "They're improving every day."
An 'inflection point' in Russia's war efforts
The war began with Russia's botched invasion of Ukraine, with command failures, tactical missteps, and high levels of confusion in the Russian ranks in the face of stiff Ukrainian resistance ultimately derailing plans for a swift victory. The Russian military continued to suffer from other problems in the first year of fighting, racking up troop and equipment losses while failing to capture significant amounts of Ukrainian territory. And Ukraine got the better of its more powerful enemy on more than one occasion, including in its 2022 counteroffensive pushes in northeastern Kharkiv and southern Kherson.But Russia found success in using a sophisticated array of defensive lines to prevent Ukraine's 2023 counteroffensive from achieving notable forward progress. As it concluded last fall, the highly anticipated effort ended in failure, with Kyiv unable to liberate much of the territory, even with an influx of armored combat vehicles from the West. In the months that followed, Russia took advantage of stalled US military support for Ukraine, which spent much of the winter and spring outgunned and lacking critical munitions to defend itself. Ukraine also notably failed to adequately build out its defensive fortifications until the last minute. Moscow exploited these problems to make gains in the east and prepare for future assaults. Alarm bells have been ringing in the West in recent weeks. US intelligence assessed in March that, despite suffering serious damage in Ukraine, the battlefield deadlock has shifted momentum in Moscow's favor.
The following month, a top US official and general said, respectively, that the Russian military was "almost completely reconstituted" and had "grown back" to its pre-war strength. "They've got some gaps that have been produced by this war, but their overall capacity is very significant still," Gen. Chris Cavoli, NATO's Supreme Allied Commander Europe and the head of US European Command, told Congress in April. "And they intend to make it go higher."And those intentions have since been put on full display. In a rather surprising move on Sunday, Putin nominated Andrei Belousov — a civilian economist with no military background — to replace his long-time defense minister Sergei Shoigu, who has faced resounding criticism over Russia's inefficiencies in Ukraine.
The recent military leadership reshuffle indicates Putin's intent to put Russia on a "Soviet-style economy war footing" to increase the output of the country's defense-industrial base, Barros said. But this isn't just to satisfy Moscow's immediate needs in Ukraine, he added. It's also for "long-term force regeneration" in which there's a scenario where Russia goes beyond the borders of Ukraine and looks to project force against NATO's eastern flank. Belousov, identified as a "competent, hard-head technocrat," was essentially brought in to audit the Russian defense ministry — which is riddled with corruption — and ensure that the country's tax dollars are actually going to the procurement of weapons and equipment that will allow Moscow to more successfully wage war in Ukraine, something the Kremlin previously struggled with, Barros said. "This is an important inflection point in the Russian effort to treat the 'special military operation' as a real war and gets serious about long-term strategic protracted efforts," Barros said, referring to the term that Moscow has long used to describe the conflict. It's not the first time Russia has tried to improve its war footing. Ukraine's blitz-style counteroffensive in the northeastern Kharkiv region during the fall of 2022 led Putin to announce a partial mobilization and take other measures to increase defense output, such as ramping up drone and tank production. The situation improved, but it still wasn't sufficient enough for Moscow. Now, Russia's defense-industrial base — with the help of some key partners — appears to be rolling. Military experts operate at the site of a Russian aerial bombing of a high-rise residential building in the Shevchenkivskyi district on March 27, 2024 in Kharkiv, Ukraine. The Russian defense ministry in March, for instance, announced that it would increase production of several types of munitions, including the 1,100-pound FAB-500, 3,300-pound FAB-1500, and 6,600-pound FAB-3000 bombs — a troubling development for Ukraine. These munitions can be converted to glide bombs, which are standoff weapons that can be released from a distance, thus reducing a Russian aircraft's exposure to Ukraine's air defenses. These highly destructive weapons can't effectively be intercepted and are hammering Ukraine's trenches and defensive lines.
The employment of glide bombs to support ground maneuver is the primary example of how Russia's military is successfully learning from its past shortcomings, Barros said. It's a tactic that did not see widespread employment until the end of 2023, but one that Moscow relied heavily on earlier this year to capture the war-torn eastern city of Avdiivka, and is currently replicating during its new assault in the Kharkiv region.
Ukraine is 'going to be in a difficult position'
Since launching a new offensive effort in the Kharkiv region last week, Russia has been using glide-bomb strikes to enable ground maneuver so it can seize territory and create what it claims is a buffer zone along the border with Ukraine.
But Ukraine's ability to defend itself has been severely hamstrung by US restrictions on striking military targets inside Russia, analysts at the ISW wrote in an assessment this week. This has effectively created a sanctuary space where Russian aircraft can lob glide bombs against Ukrainian positions, and where Moscow's troops can gather ahead of combat operations, they added. Ukrainian officials have tried to push the Biden administration to rethink its stance, but Washington has been unwavering in its position. Meanwhile, with its new Kharkiv push underway, Russia now appears to be setting the stage for what could be a multi-pronged summer offensive that could stretch a Ukrainian army still depleted of critical materials and much-needed manpower. Ukrainian and Western officials, as well as war experts, have said that the months-long hold on additional US military aid to Ukraine put the country in the tough position in which it currently finds itself. Kyiv also faces morale and recruitment issues that didn't exist a year ago, when many were rather optimistic ahead of the summer counteroffensive. "The Ukrainians are going to be in a difficult position over the coming months," Barros said. The pattern of US support for Ukraine, where Washington surges assistance at the last minute when the situation gets dire, "is not a sustainable approach. What we're seeing now are the consequences of that approach to Ukraine," he explained. Mick Ryan, a retired Australian major general and strategist who recently returned from Ukraine, wrote in April that Russia has clearly gotten over the "shock of its early failures" and seems able "to subjugate Ukraine in a way it was not capable of when it began its large-scale invasion in February 2022."
"Russia is now a more dangerous adversary than it was two years ago," he wrote. Jack Watling, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute think tank, said that Russia is taking advantage of its numerical superiority, stretching out Ukrainian forces across a vast front line. Kyiv desperately needs more forces, ammunition, and air-defense interceptors if it hopes to brave Moscow's advances, he warned, noting that "the outlook in Ukraine is bleak."But, Watling argued in a new analysis this week, "if Ukraine's allies engage now to replenish Ukrainian munitions stockpiles, help to establish a robust training pipeline, and make the industrial investments to sustain the effort, then Russia's summer offensive can be blunted, and Ukraine will receive the breathing space it needs to regain the initiative."

Houthi missile strikes China-bound oil tanker in Red Sea
SAEED AL-BATATI/Arab News/May 18, 2024
AL-MUKALLA: Yemen’s Houthi militia launched an anti-ship ballistic missile into the Red Sea on Saturday morning, striking an oil tanker traveling from Russia to China, according to US Central Command, the latest in a series of Houthi maritime strikes.
CENTCOM said that at 1 a.m. on Saturday, a Houthi anti-ship ballistic missile struck a Panamanian-flagged, Greek-owned and operated oil tanker named M/T Wind, which had just visited Russia and was on its way to China, causing “flooding which resulted in the loss of propulsion and steering.”Slamming the Houthis for attacking ships, the US military said: “The crew of M/T Wind was able to restore propulsion and steering, and no casualties were reported. M/T Wind resumed its course under its power. This continued malign and reckless behavior by the Iranian-backed Houthis threatens regional stability and endangers the lives of mariners across the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.”Earlier on Saturday, two UK naval agencies said that a ship sailing in the Red Sea suffered minor damage after being hit by an item thought to be a missile launched by Yemen’s Houthi militia from an area under their control.
The UK Maritime Trade Operations, which monitors ship attacks, said on Saturday morning that it received an alarm from a ship master about an “unknown object” striking the ship’s port quarter, 98 miles south of Hodeidah, inflicting minor damage.
“The vessel and crew are safe and continuing to its next port of call,” UKMTO said in its notice about the incident, encouraging ships in the Red Sea to exercise caution and report any incidents. Hours earlier, the same UK maritime agency stated that the assault happened 76 nautical miles northwest of Hodeidah. Ambrey, a UK security firm, also reported receiving information regarding a missile strike on a crude oil tanker traveling under the Panama flag, around 10 nautical miles southwest of Yemen’s government-controlled town of Mokha on the Red Sea, which resulted in a fire on the ship. The Houthis did not claim responsibility for fresh ship strikes on Saturday, although they generally do so days after the attack.
Since November, the Houthis have seized a commercial ship, sunk another, and claimed to have fired hundreds of ballistic missiles at international commercial and naval ships in the Gulf of Aden, Bab Al-Mandab Strait, and Red Sea in what the Yemeni militia claims is support for the Palestinian people. The Houthis claim that they solely strike Israel-linked ships and those traveling or transporting products to Israel in order to pressure the latter to cease its war in Gaza. The US responded to the Houthi attacks by branding them as terrorists, forming a coalition of marine task forces to safeguard ships, and unleashing hundreds of strikes on Houthi sites in Yemen. Local and international environmentalists have long warned that Houthi attacks on ships carrying fuel or other chemicals might lead to an environmental calamity near Yemen’s coast. The early warning came in February when the Houthis launched a missile that seriously damaged the MV Rubymar, a Belize-flagged and Lebanese-operated ship carrying 22,000 tonnes of ammonium phosphate-sulfate NPS fertilizer and more than 200 tonnes of fuel while cruising in the Red Sea.  The Houthis have defied demands for de-escalation in the Red Sea and continue to organize massive rallies in regions under their control to express support for their campaign. On Friday, thousands of Houthi sympathizers took to the streets of Sanaa, Saada, and other cities under their control to show their support for the war on ships. The Houthis shouted in unison, “We have no red line, and what’s coming is far worse,” as they raised the Palestinian and militia flags in Al-Sabeen Square on Friday, repeating their leader’s promise to intensify assaults on ships. Meanwhile, a Yemeni government soldier was killed and another was injured on Saturday while fending off a Houthi attack on their position near the border between the provinces of Taiz and Lahj. According to local media, the Houthis attacked the government’s Nation’s Shield Forces in the contested Hayfan district of Taiz province, attempting to capture control of additional territory. The Houthis were forced to stop their attack after encountering tough resistance from government troops. The attack occurred a day after the Nation’s Shield Forces sent dozens of armed vehicles and personnel to the same locations to boost their forces and repel Houthi attacks.

Sudan paramilitaries say will open ‘safe passages’ out of key Darfur city
AFP/May 18, 2024
PORT SUDAN: Sudan’s paramilitary Rapid Support Forces have announced their willingness to open “safe passages” out of the former haven city of El-Fasher in Darfur, which has been gripped by fighting for weeks. The RSF, battling the regular army for more than a year, affirmed in a post on X late Friday “the readiness of its forces to help citizens by opening safe passages to voluntarily leave to other areas of their choosing and to provide protection for them.”El-Fasher, the state capital of North Darfur and once a key hub for humanitarian aid where many had gathered for shelter, has been in the grips of fighting as the RSF seeks to control it. The paramilitaries called on residents of El-Fasher to “avoid conflict areas and areas likely to be targeted by air forces and not to respond to malicious calls to mobilize residents and drag them into the fires of war.”Sudan has been in the throes of conflict for over a year between the regular army led by de facto ruler Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan and the RSF led by his former deputy Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo.
The conflict has killed as many as 15,000 people in the West Darfur state capital of El-Geneina alone, according to United Nations experts. Medical charity Doctors Without Borders on Wednesday said its hospital in North Darfur had received more than 450 people killed in the fighting since May 10, but noted that the actual death toll was likely much higher. Also on Wednesday, the UN’s humanitarian coordinator said residents of Sudan were “trapped in an inferno of brutal violence” and increasingly at risk of famine due to the rainy season and blocked aid. Tens of thousands of people have died and millions have been displaced since the war broke out in April 2023. The UN on Friday warned it only had 12 percent of the $2.7 billion it sought in funding for Sudan, warning that “famine is closing in.”

Iran to send experts to ally Venezuela to help with medical accelerators
Reuters/Reuters/May 18, 2024
Iran on Saturday said it will send experts to its ally Venezuela to help with medical accelerators in hospitals it said had been stopped due to Western sanctions. Venezuela requested Iran's help, according to a message on the social media platform X by the Iranian government attributed to the head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran. "Venezuela has a number of accelerators in its hospitals that have been stopped due to the embargo," the message said. Medical accelerators are used in radiation treatments for cancer patients. Venezuela is also an ally of Russia and China.The return of U.S. sanctions on Venezuela's oil industry has made its alliance with Iran critical to keeping its lagging energy sector afloat. Washington last year temporarily relaxed sanctions on Venezuela's promise to allow a competitive presidential election. The U.S. now says only some conditions were met.

EU will not recognize Taiwan – Borrell
NNA/May 18, 2024
The EU should be firm about ensuring that a military conflict doesn’t break out over Taiwan, which it considers part of a “one single China,” the bloc’s foreign policy chief Josep Borrell has said. Tensions around the self-governing island, which Beijing considers to be an inalienable part of China, have been rising as the US maintains unofficial ties with the Taiwanese government and supplies it with defensive weapons. Speaking to Foreign Policy magazine during a trip to California this week to meet tech leaders and state officials, Borrell touched on a number of issues, including tech regulation, EU-US relations, China, and geopolitical conflicts, as well as the EU’s position on Taiwan and a potential military conflict. “We keep saying the same thing: We believe that we have to decrease tensions, we have to respect the statute of war, and we have to exclude any possibility of a military solution to the problem,” Borrell told the outlet. “Our fixed position is we don’t recognize the statehood of Taiwan and we will not do it. It’s one single China. It means that we are not going to recognize the statehood of Taiwan; we will have economic and cultural relations with this territory without recognition of statehood,” he said.
He added that the EU calls on all nations “to understand that there is not a military solution to this problem.” Borrell has repeatedly stated that Taiwan is “absolutely crucial” for the EU economically, particularly due to its strategic role in the production of the most advanced semiconductors. In April 2023, he suggested that European navies should patrol the disputed Taiwan Strait “to show Europe’s commitment to freedom of navigation.” Those comments followed Chinese military exercises around Taiwan, during which Beijing simulated targeted strikes and a blockade of the island following a meeting between the Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen and the US House speaker at the time, Kevin McCarthy. Taiwan was the last refuge of nationalist forces during the Chinese civil war of the 1940s, and has since remained de facto independent from Beijing and allied with Washington. Under the ‘One China’ policy, which forms the core of the Chinese government’s relationship with Taiwan, Beijing seeks the peaceful reintegration of the island and the prevention of any attempt to declare it a sovereign nation, threatening to use military force if necessary. Beijing has insisted that Taiwan’s status is a domestic issue and has urged foreign governments not to interfere. Chinese officials have criticized Washington for repeatedly expressing support for the Taiwanese government and concluding defense contracts with the island’s military. Last month, the US approved a multibillion-dollar foreign aid package of which over $8 billion was designated for Taiwan to “counter communist China and ensure a strong deterrence in the region.” --- RT

Latest English LCCC  analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources on May 18-19/2024
US Administration Abandons Israel, Empowers Enemies
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/May 18, 2024/Gatestone Institute.
Worse, abandoning Israel sends a troubling message to U.S. allies worldwide: in times of crisis, do not rely on American support.
The Biden administration has eroded trust and damaged U.S. credibility on the global stage even further than it already had done after surrendering Afghanistan and allowing China to kill more than a million Americans with Covid-19, or poisoning to death more than 80,000 Americans each year with fentanyl, or permitting China to commit massive espionage and intellectual property theft with no consequences at all.
Biden's decision has projected an image of weakness rather than leadership, further tarnishing America's reputation as a steadfast defender of the free world. Instead, the Biden administration is seen globally as siding with terrorists -- the Taliban in Afghanistan, the terror-funding Qataris, the genocidal Communist government of China, and the annual winner of the world's top, largest, leading "state sponsor of terrorism," Iran.
Such a milestone shift in U.S. foreign policy displays a concerning departure from longstanding principles of backing the Free World. Overall, the development is deeply detrimental to U.S. interests. It threatens the stability of international relations, and for the perception of America's role as a leading global power, it is nothing short of devastating.
The Biden administration's abandonment of Israel sends a troubling message to U.S. allies worldwide: in times of crisis, do not rely on American support.
In an unprecedented move in US governance, the Biden administration has embarked on a policy that departs from its longstanding support for Israel.
Instead, there is a discernible tilt towards policies that favor the adversaries of the United States, notably Iran and its proxies such as Hamas and Hezbollah, as well as China and Russia. This strategic realignment marks a significant shift in US foreign policy and has generated a substantial risk both domestically and internationally.
On one front, the Biden administration's policy of granting sanctions waivers to Iran has bolstered its financial resources, enabling its regime to resume funding terrorism and "exporting the revolution." This influx of funds provides the Iranian regime with the means to finance, arm and support terrorist groups such as Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis; forge closer ties with Russia and supply it with weapons to attack Ukraine, and have Iran's proxies repeatedly target not only Israel, but also US troops in more than 150 recent attacks in the Middle East. The US gave Iran the funding that they used to attack it. By lifting economic restrictions, the Biden administration has empowered entities hostile to US interests and those of its allies, funded both sides of two major wars, in Ukraine and Gaza, and successfully destabilizing both Europe and the Middle East.
On top of that. President Joe Biden has orchestrated a policy shift regarding supplying munitions and military equipment that Israel needs to defend itself in a war it did not start -- while at the same time lifting weapons sanctions off two of Israel's off two of the countries that participated in trying to destroy Israel: Qatar, which has been Hamas's biggest funder since 2007, and Lebanon – which has been launching missiles and drones non-stop into Israel – a country smaller than New Jersey -- ever since October 7. Biden threatened to withhold arms supplies if Israel entered Rafah, in southern Gaza, where the last four battalions of Hamas, its leaders and possibly the Israeli hostages could are located. Bizarrely, some of the weapons withheld were precision-guided – exactly what the US had implied Israel should use in order not to fight "indiscriminately."
Such a decision undermines Israel's ability to defend itself against threats posed by Hamas and other enemies. This pause in military supplies could embolden Hamas and other terrorist groups, potentially exacerbating tensions and further destabilizing the region.
The decision to halt arms shipments to Israel has ignited a firestorm of criticism, particularly from prominent Republican figures such as US House Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell. Their condemnation underscores a broader discontent with the Biden administration's handling of the situation. They lamented being blindsided by the announcement, after having received assurances to the contrary from administration officials.
Expressing their dismay in a strongly worded letter addressed to Biden, the lawmakers emphasized the gravity of the situation, warning that the suspension of arms supplies poses a direct threat to Israel's security and risked emboldening its enemies in the volatile Middle East region. They called for urgent action to reverse the decision and demanded a thorough briefing to be provided. In the view of Congress and its recent vote for $17 billion in aid to Israel, the administration's lack of transparency and consultation has been deeply troubling and represents a failure of leadership, particularly in the message sent to America's allies and foes. Israel, an ally under existential threat, has been left vulnerable, while the counties posing that threat are rewarded. There is concern among lawmakers about the broader implications for regional stability and security
"If we stop weapons necessary to destroy the enemies of the state of Israel at a time of great peril," said Senator Lindsey Graham, "we will pay a price. This is obscene. It is absurd. Give Israel what they need to fight the war they can't afford to lose."
"The American people support Israel overwhelmingly," said Senator John Thune, who spearheaded a resolution condemning Biden's decision. "And they also believe that Israel needs to do what is necessary, and if that includes going into Rafah to root out the Hamas threat, then that is necessary for their very survival."
Former President Donald Trump also criticized Biden: "What Biden is doing with respect to Israel is disgraceful." The presumptive Republican presidential nominee went further. "If any Jewish person voted for Joe Biden," he added, "they should be ashamed of themselves. He's totally abandoned Israel."
The decision by the Biden administration to abandon Israel carries far-reaching implications that extend beyond the immediate geopolitical landscape of the Middle East. By withdrawing support for Israel, the administration is bolstering hostile entities such Hamas, Hezbollah, and their benefactors, Qatar and Iran.
Worse, abandoning Israel sends a troubling message to U.S. allies worldwide: in times of crisis, do not rely on American support.
The Biden administration has eroded trust and damaged U.S. credibility on the global stage even further than it already had done after surrendering Afghanistan and allowing China to kill more than a million Americans with Covid-19, or poisoning to death more than 80,000 Americans each year with fentanyl, or permitting China to commit massive espionage and intellectual property theft with no consequences at all.
Biden's decision has projected an image of weakness rather than leadership, further tarnishing America's reputation as a steadfast defender of the free world. Instead, the Biden administration is seen globally as siding with terrorists -- the Taliban in Afghanistan, the terror-funding Qataris, the genocidal Communist government of China, and the annual winner (here, here and here) of the world's top, largest, leading "state sponsor of terrorism," Iran.
Such a milestone shift in U.S. foreign policy displays a concerning departure from longstanding principles of backing the Free World. Overall, the development is deeply detrimental to U.S. interests. It threatens the stability of international relations, and for the perception of America's role as a leading global power, it is nothing short of devastating.
*Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a business strategist and advisor, Harvard-educated scholar, political scientist, board member of Harvard International Review, and president of the International American Council on the Middle East. He has authored several books on Islam and US Foreign Policy. He can be reached at Dr.Rafizadeh@Post.Harvard.Edu
© 2024 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Turkey's Syrian Mercenaries Come To The Sahel In Africa
Amb. Alberto M. Fernandez/Syria, Turkey, North Africa | MEMRI Daily Brief No. 600/May 18/2024
Long a sinecure of former colonial powers, large parts of Africa have in recent years become a wide-open marketplace for new foreign players. While much of the focus – and hysteria – in the West has been about the resurgence of China and Russia in Africa, there is also a raft of ambitious middle or rising powers – Turkey, UAE, India, Israel, Egypt, Brazil – looking forward to project either economic or military or political power onto the continent.
Ground zero, so far, for some of this new competition has been the Republic of Niger. The French are already out, the Americans are on their way out while the Russians, Chinese, Turks, and maybe even the Iranians are flowing in.
While the exodus of the French and Americans followed the July 2023 military coup in Niamey, Niger's efforts at the diversification of its defense ties predates that event. It was in late 2021 that the former democratic government of Niger signed a contract for Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drones. They were delivered in June 2022.[1] Turkey also sold Niger some armored vehicles and Hurkus-3 trainer aircraft suitable for ground attack and armed reconnaissance missions.[2] After the 2023 military coup, the new junta expressed gratitude to Russia, Turkey, and the UAE for welcoming them with open arms, in contrast with the reticence of the judgmental French and Americans.
Recent media coverage has revealed that there are already some Russian military contractors or soldiers on the ground in Niger, although nothing like the major Russian presence in countries like Mali and the Central African Republic.[3] But much more significant that the Russians seems to be the arrival of hundreds of mercenaries secretly flown in from Turkey over the past six months.
The mercenaries are not actually Turkish, although they are supplied by Turkey.[4] They are Syrians, Turkish-allied proxy militias, remnants from the Syrian Civil War. While in May 2024 there have been several articles about the arrival of these Syrian mercenaries in Niger,[5] Saudi-funded Al-Hadath television news reported on their arrival on January 27, 2024.[6] Relying on the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, the broadcaster reported that up to 3,500 fighters from the Turkish-controlled Sultan Murad Division in Northern Syria would eventually be sent to Niger. Pro-Assad Syrian commentator Fares Shihabi had spoken even earlier on Twitter of the Turkish move into Niger as far back as December 27, 2023.[7]
This is the third time outside Syria that Turkey has deployed its proxy Syrian mercenaries. The first time was in the Libyan Civil War, in 2019, where Turkey's Syrian mercenaries at times confronted Syrian mercenaries contracted by Russia.[8] Turkey then drew from the same personnel pool in Syria for the Azerbaijan war in late 2020 against the Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians.[9]
The fighters are drawn not only from the Sultan Murad Division, but also from similar Turkish-controlled units, the Sultan Suleiman Shah Brigade and Hamza Division, militias long tinged with Islamist and/or Turkish supremacist ideology but also motivated by the need for money in a devastated Syria. A six-month contract at $1,500 a month with the possibility of $35,000 in case of disability and $60,000 in case of death for the fighters' family is a substantial inducement for desperate, impoverished Syrian men. In 2023, the minimum monthly wage for a Syrian government employee was less than $22 at the official exchange rate, even less at the parallel rate.[10]
Like many other irregular forces in Syria, these Turkish proxy militias have a horrific human rights record going back more than a decade. While they are technically part of the so-called Syrian National Army reporting to a supposed Syrian exile government, they are entirely tools of Turkish statecraft. As such Turkey has used them against rival Arab militias, against the Assad regime and especially, against Kurdish rebel groups in Syria, a high priority target for Ankara. In February 2024 Human Rights Watch issued a detailed report on the depredations of these Turkish-directed militias including serious abuses of both human rights and humanitarian law, including indiscriminate shelling, summary killings, unlawful arrests, torture, and enforced disappearances, and systematic pillaging and unlawful seizure of property.[11]
Both the Sultan Suleiman Shah Brigade and Hamza Division and their leaders were sanctioned for human rights abuses by the U.S. Department of the Treasury in August 2023.[12] And yet Washington, which was so vociferous about the dangers of the Russian Wagner private military company in Africa, has been much more muted about these other killers being sent to Africa.
Perhaps this is because the U.S. government sees these Turkish-directed death squads as useful substitutes or potential replacements for Wagner? Here the great irony is that in several of the recent reports about the sending of these Syrian mercenaries to Niger it is clearly stated that they will be fighting alongside the Russians, rather than as adversaries or rivals to Wagner.[14] This information may be erroneous and maybe the plan is indeed to steadily build up human rights-abusing Turkish contract fighters as a substitute for human rights-abusing Russian contract fighters. The idea being that, while these may be rogue forces, Washington does have more influence over problematic NATO member Turkey than it does over an outright enemy in Putin's Russia.
Sultan Murad Division fighters and vehicles near Hawar Kilis, Syria (2022)
One innovation for these Syrian mercenaries in Africa is that they will finally do something that they have never, despite claims to the contrary, done much of before in Syria, Libya or Azerbaijan, which is to actually fight terrorists from ISIS, from the so-called Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP). Although Turkey talks much about having done this in Syria, the reality is that Turkey's Syrian Islamist fighters were mostly used against the Syrian Kurds of the SDF/YPG.
There is, to date, no footage of these Syrian fighters in Niger. A military parade of the Sultan Suleiman Shah and Hamza units in Syria last July showed dozens of fighters on motorcycles, at least a half-dozen tanks, Mercedes trucks with artillery and lighter vehicles with multiple rocket launchers, recoilless rifles and heavy machine guns, all festooned with Turkish government and Syrian rebel flags.[15] But these Syrian fighters heading to Africa were told that "all they needed to bring was a change of underwear," everything else would be provided by Turkey. One expects that they will be equipped as most Sahel fighters are, with light trucks and land cruisers carrying machine guns and other light weapons.
According to several reports, Turkey's Syrian fighters are already in combat and some have been killed as they deploy in one of the most dangerous regions in Africa, the tri-border area between Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso. This Liptako-Gourma region has been one of the principal hotspots for terrorism, instability, and war in the entire Sahel region for years.[16] Both ISWAP and rival Jihadist groups loyal to Al-Qaeda are to be found here. Regardless of the ultimate fate of Turkey's Syrian cannon fodder, the instability in the Sahel will no doubt offer great opportunities for Turkish foreign policy and its burgeoning military-industrial complex. In this sense, there seems to be enough booming African security business for both the Russians and the Turks.
*Alberto M. Fernandez is Vice President of MEMRI.
[1] Foreignpolicy.com/2022/06/08/turkey-niger-arms-drone-sale-counterterrorism-sahel, June 8, 2022.
[2] Defensenews.com/air/2021/11/19/niger-becomes-first-foreign-customer-of-turkeys-hurkus-aircraft, November 19, 2021.
[3] Theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/03/us-confirms-russian-forces-have-entered-airbase-in-niger-where-us
-troops-are-stationed, May 3, 2024.
[4] See MEMRI JTTM report Syrian Opposition Website: Turkey Is Recruiting Syrian Mercenaries To Fight Jihadis In Niger, May 13, 2024.
[5] English.enabbaladi.net/archives/2024/05/turkey-recruits-syrians-to-fight-in-africa-under-supervision-of-sultan-murad-division, May 13, 2024.
[6] Twitter.com/AlHadath/status/1751228562797887666, January 27, 2024.
[7] Twitter.com/ShehabiFares/status/1741357280883253301, December 31, 2024.
[8] Stj-sy.org/en/syrian-mercenaries-in-libya-commanders-and-recruits-involved-in-serious-violations, March 18, 2021.
[9] Bbc.com/news/stories-55238803, December 9, 2020.
[10] Bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-66526132, August 16, 2023.
[11] Hrw.org/report/2024/02/29/everything-power-weapon/abuses-and-impunity-turkish-occupied-northern-syria, February 29, 2024.
[12] Home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1699, August 17, 2023.
[13] See MEMRI Inquiry & Analysis Series No. 1622, Turkey's Grey Wolves Organization – An Arm Of President Erdoğan's Governing Coalition – Fights In Syria, Azerbaijan, Praises Chechen Terrorist Shamil Basayev, Runs Branches In U.S., Europe, February 9, 2022.
[14] Syriahr.com/%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%B1%D8%AD%D9%84%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%AA%D8
%B2%D8%A7%D9%82-%D9%87%D9%8A-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A3%D8%B5%D8%B9%D8%A8-%D8%B3%D9%88%D8%B1%D9%8A%D9%88%D9%86-%D9%85%D8%B9%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%
B6%D9%88/713559, May 11, 2024.
[15] Youtube.com/watch?v=q471hPbcuts, July 16, 2023.
[16] Reliefweb.int/report/mali/liptako-gourma-epicentre-sahel-crisis, June 30, 2017.

A boost for Biden’s global democracy agenda
Andrew Hammond/Arab News/May 18, 2024
US President Joe Biden has faced criticism for making “revitalizing democracy the world over” a key goal of his administration. Yet his agenda might be taking stronger root across much of the West and beyond, and could outlive his administration, whether it ends in 2025 or 2029. An illustration of the appealing nature of his message was on display on Tuesday and Wednesday this week at the Copenhagen Democracy Summit. This global event, the brainchild of Anders Fogh Rasmussen, a former NATO secretary-general and Danish prime minister, featured keynote speakers from around the world, from the Asia Pacific to the Americas.
The speakers included Republican US Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen and President-elect Lai Ching-te, and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. The event coincided with the publication of research based on interviews with almost 70,000 people worldwide, which found that faith in democracy remains high around the globe, with 85 percent of those polled agreeing that democracy is important to their country.
This is a timely reminder, given that 2024 is a banner year for elections, during which an estimated 2 billion people in dozens of nations will go to the polls.
The research also found, however, that governments generally were not seen to be living up to the democratic expectations of their citizens; only a little more than half of those polled were satisfied with the state of democracy in their country. This dissatisfaction was not limited to nondemocratic nations; it was also prevalent in several Western countries with long democratic traditions.
A good example was the US, where former President Donald Trump will once again be on the ballot for the Republican Party in the presidential election in November. Still tarred by the assault on the Capitol by his supporters on Jan. 6, 2021, he has openly stated that should he win, he will be a dictator on the first day of his second term.
The consequences of a Trump victory are not only important domestically but internationally. During his first term, foes of the US around the world, from Venezuela to Iran and Russia, relished the disorder he brought to Washington. In particular, the Jan. 6 debacle was watched with glee by those nationalist populists around the world who try to defy calls for the rule of law and democratic norms to be respected.
Other think tanks, such as the US-based Freedom House, in recent years have also regularly highlighted the hostile environment democratic governance faces around the globe. A key challenge, especially following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, is the growing concern about the increasing influence of Moscow and other authoritarian and/or autocratic states.
According to Rasmussen, there is a “trend which shows we risk losing the Global South to the autocracies. We are witnessing an axis of autocracies forming, from China to Russia to Iran. We must act now to make freedom more attractive than dictatorship, and unite through an alliance of democracies to push back against the emboldened autocrats.”Economic modernization and liberalism will be the impulse for future democratic reforms.
Yet there are some in the US, and beyond, who would prefer Biden not to overemphasize democracy-based political rhetoric. They argue, for example, that such ideas sometimes make a simplistic, binary distinction between “good” and “bad” that can sit awkwardly in a fast-changing, complex world of ambiguity and uncertainty, where there is frequently a need to work with states that lack democratic traditions but with which the US has shared interests.
Some critics instead favor an international approach by Washington based more on classic, quantifiable national interests. They argue that other states, especially developing ones, might be more likely to aspire to emulate the US because of its material prosperity, rather than any appeals based on its democratic virtues.
Economic modernization and liberalism, it is suggested, will be the impulse for future democratic reforms and help counteract the appeal of alternative, authoritarian models of development that have brought significant indebtedness to key US allies.
The implication is that Biden’s agenda might best be delivered by putting significantly more emphasis on new economic-reform and infrastructure packages for Africa, Asia, and the Americas, including signature initiatives such as the G7-backed Build Back Better World initiative, to demonstrate in a practical way the US intent to invest in low and middle income countries.
Yet, as important as this economic agenda is, it is not incompatible with an agenda for democracy. Indeed, value-driven, high-standard, and transparent partnership schemes that address the developing world’s huge infrastructure-funding challenges, such as Build Back Better World, can reinforce Biden’s wider agenda.
This is important because there is recognition that a broad, multifaceted approach is needed to ensure that freedom and democracy flourish. This is why it is so important that Biden now embeds in his agenda for the remainder of his presidency the need to make democracy “more responsive and resilient.”
The truth behind Biden’s assertion that “proving democracy is durable and strong” is a central challenge of our age is highlighted in the important book “How Democracies Die” by Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt.
Its core concept is that in recent generations democracies have not, generally speaking, collapsed as a result of a military coup or armed revolution. Rather, they have broken down gradually as public institutions and political norms have been weakened from within.
This is why, during his time as vice president between 2009 and 2017, Biden was given an active role in issues relating to several countries, including NATO and EU ally Hungary, in which he spoke out against corruption and in support of the consolidation of democratic institutions, with an emphasis on the independence of the judiciary.
In this key election year, a boost to the US promotion of democracy around the world is to be welcomed. Biden’s support for this long-standing agenda will outlast his administration in what might be a long battle for fresh ideas in the field of international relations.
• Andrew Hammond is an associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics.

Oil theft the untold driver of Syria’s enduring humanitarian crisis
Sir Alan Duncan/Arab News/May 18, 2024
More than 13 years since the onset of civil war, the suffering in Syria has rarely been further from the headlines. Concurrent crises in Ukraine and Gaza have captured global attention. With the conflict largely frozen and the peace process stalled, awareness of Syria has been reduced to sporadic moments, such as the recent strike on Iran’s Damascus consulate. Yet the humanitarian crisis engendered by Bashar Assad’s brutal fightback against his people remains very real.
What is unusual about the humanitarian crisis in Syria is one of its key drivers: oil. Once a cornerstone of the Syrian economy, oil has become a source of misery for the Syrian people — affecting the environment, health and long-term prospects for recovery.
International sanctions imposed on the industry in 2011 have had the unintended effect of allowing the country’s oil wells and refineries to fall into the hands of unsavory private actors, including the self-proclaimed Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria. According to statements from this group in 2022, more than three quarters of its operating budget of $780 million is made up of such oil revenue.
The destinations for this illicit oil are difficult to trace but are thought to include the Kurdistan Regional Government and the Damascus regime itself. In short, vast quantities of Syrian oil are being stolen and the funds misappropriated, rather than going in any meaningful sense toward supporting the Syrian people.
This also matters because of what it is doing to the environment in northern Syria and, by extension, the health of those who live there. This is the epicenter of a real and growing social crisis.
The groups that have seized control of oil extraction are unable or unwilling to adhere to proper industry standards of production and refining. Some of the refineries they have set up are little more than makeshift huts. This has led to frequent oil spills, which have contaminated the soil and poisoned northern Syria’s waterways. As an investigation in pan-Arab magazine Al-Majalla found, the region lacks a facility for managing the byproducts and waste from oil refining, “resulting in its haphazard disposal, including by mixing it with water. Disposing of oil refining waste into rivers and canals has contaminated the soil with substances like arsenic, lead and mercury. These, in turn, are absorbed by plants and vegetables.” It is no surprise, then, that agriculture has been widely decimated, exacerbating existing food shortages.
The toll on human health is devastating. Exact figures are hard to come by, such is the makeshift and sparse nature of Syrian healthcare provision, but cases of cancer are increasingly concentrated around Syria’s oil-producing north — and have increased up to three times faster than the comparative period before the war. Cancer cases and deaths are expected to double in the current decade, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency. Respiratory diseases and other health issues associated with toxic emissions are also rising.
The groups that have seized control of oil extraction are unable or unwilling to adhere to proper industry standards. One person quoted in Al-Majalla’s investigation, whose young nephew is battling leukemia, put the problem bluntly: “In the past, (oil) companies treated harmful gas and oil waste. Nowadays, no one treats the source of these cancer-causing emissions.” All told, oil is driving suffering across large swaths of Syria. But I believe it can also drive a radical and impactful solution. Sanctions are often described as a blunt tool and Syria is a case in point. Even if inadvertently, they have contributed to an environmental and social catastrophe affecting hundreds of thousands of Syrians. These sanctions must be reconsidered. This does not mean lifting valid restrictions on any individuals and bad actors, but it does mean finding a way to allow the country’s natural resources to be produced safely for the benefit of Syrians.
Through the selected lifting of sanctions or granting of specific waivers, international energy companies could return to parts of Syria and restore safe operations, with effective independent oversight and buy-in from local populations. Correct standards can be reintroduced and the terrible environmental and health damage can begin to be reversed. Moreover, the revenues generated from this oil production could be channeled into a humanitarian fund dedicated to meeting Syria’s critical needs — not least healthcare, water and schools.
This is a complex prospect in a region blighted by competing political challenges. But I believe that continued inaction is unacceptable and the growing consequences intolerable.
The UN’s humanitarian appeal for Syria for 2023 sought $5.4 billion but raised only a third of that. Compare that to the $15 billion that Gulfsands, an independent energy company I advise, estimates would be available every year for reinvestment if oil operations were returned to the hands of legitimate parties. This potential is currently being squandered and stolen. It is time for the international community to implement a radical solution, explore targeted sanctions relief with appropriate oversight and help end this human tragedy.
**Sir Alan Duncan is a former UK Foreign Office minister, serving as the minister of state for international development from 2010 to 2014 and minister of state for Europe and the Americas from 2016 to 2019.

Clueless in Gaza
Yossi Mekelberg/Arab News/May 18, 2024
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu avoids giving interviews to domestic media outlets, as accountability and transparency have never been his forte. He does not like the scrutiny that comes when facing probing journalists who might, in their audacity, ask him difficult questions. Why has he not taken responsibility for his failure to defend Israelis on Oct. 7? Why, more than seven months into a war to “destroy Hamas,” are the organization and its leaders still capable of fighting against a much larger and better-equipped army, and are now returning to places that were evacuated by Israel?
How can he justify the killing of so many noncombatants in Gaza? How can he explain the current state of international isolation that Israel finds itself in, especially considering the initial circumstances of this war? And then there is the question of all questions: What is his plan for the “day after?” All of these are legitimate concerns that Netanyahu avoids addressing either for the sake of convenience or, in the case of what the future might hold for Gaza and Israel’s relations with the Palestinians more generally, because he is devoid of an adequate answer.
Instead, he gives interviews to selected American media networks, preferably those that will give him as easy a ride as the situation allows. He then relies on the natural sympathy of the interviewer, and his own unparalleled manipulative prowess in twisting matters and concocting a reality in which he and Israel are always the victims, always moral, and eventually victorious.
It might therefore have been because of the relaxed nature of his interview with Dr. Phil McGraw, a clinical psychologist by trade on whose American TV show Netanyahu appeared this week, that he for the first time opened up a little and admitted some culpability for the failures of Oct. 7 — not personally, mind you, but he was prepared to claim collective responsibility and generously share the blame for the calamity with his Cabinet colleagues.
It is not only the case that Netanyahu has his own version of the past and the present, regardless of how detached it is from reality, but equally, and more disturbingly, there is his vision for the future — or rather, the lack of one.
Asked by Dr. Phil about “the day after” the war, his response reflected a foggy mind and wishful thinking, with no strategic clarity. After seven months of horrific bloodshed, it is not too much to expect some coherence when it comes to Gaza and not the vague answer he gave. He said: “We’ll probably have to have some kind of civilian administration by Gazans who are not committed to our destruction, possibly with the aid of the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and other countries that I think want to see stability and peace.”
A few days later he said that “talk about the day after (the war), while Hamas is still intact, is (pointless).”From Day 1 of this conflict, the absence of any serious scenario-building within the Israeli government or the country’s various security organizations regarding the short- and long-term political objectives of the war, beyond the mantra of “total victory,” was obvious. What we are witnessing instead is Israel entering into yet another never-ending war, with no exit strategy, that will inevitably lead to an Israeli military presence in the Gazan enclave for the foreseeable future, embroiled in guerrilla warfare with Hamas and other Palestinian militant factions, with no political horizon.
The only possible solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is a political one that brings an end to the occupation.
We are already seeing in some parts of Gaza previously declared by Israel to be clear of Hamas forces, and which therefore had a considerably reduced Israeli military presence, that Hamas militants are returning, as is the Israeli army and, with them, further clashes. Netanyahu’s US TV interview earned an instant rebuke from the UAE’s Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed Al-Nahyan, who put him firmly in his place by declaring categorically that the UAE will not “participate in the civil administration of the Gaza Strip, which is under Israeli occupation.”
It is reasonable to conclude that this is also the position of the other countries Netanyahu expects to help Israel reconstruct the Strip. Because this time, unlike in previous rounds of hostilities, unless there is a historic compromise with the Palestinians that leads to a viable and stable peace, donor countries will be reluctant to invest time, energy, and money in rebuilding the enclave, only to see it destroyed again within a few years. In its frustration at the lack of any Israeli strategy to end the war and establish authentic governance in the Gaza Strip, the UAE has found unlikely allies in Israel in the form of Defense Minister Yoav Galant and the nation’s military commanders, who are equally frustrated by the situation and have become increasingly vocal about it.
The chief of staff of the Israeli military, Herzi Halevi, reportedly tore into the prime minister during a recent security discussion, upbraiding Netanyahu for his utter failure to come up with a “day after” strategy for who will rule Gaza when the war ends. Military leaders rightly accuse the government of having no diplomatic plan for establishing a governing body in the Strip, consequently forcing the army to launch repeated campaigns against Hamas with no decisive outcome.
This meeting of minds between the international community and the Israeli military establishment derives from a clearer view that the only possible solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is a political one that brings an end to the occupation. By the same token, military force can only serve to prolong the conflict and, in the case of the war in Gaza, unnecessarily extend a Netanyahu premiership that has no support within his own country, let alone abroad.
Every single day that the war continues without moving any closer to a peaceful political solution in which Gaza is just one component, albeit a very significant one, is a disaster for the people in the territory, and Palestinians in general, but also for Israel and its international standing.
Netanyahu’s insistence, for example, that a further Israeli offensive in Gaza will go ahead has already led to Washington withholding at least some weapon supplies, and Egypt, which is directly affected by what is taking place in Gaza, announced last week that it would support South Africa’s ongoing lawsuit in the International Court of Justice that accuses Israel of genocide in Gaza.
This is Netanyahu’s legacy: failure to defend Israel when it needed it most; conducting a war with no achievable objective in mind; creating the conditions for Israel, its politicians and military personnel to be accused of war crimes; and having no grasp of how to bring this war to an end in a way that serves as a springboard toward peace with the Palestinians and rebuilding formal and informal ties with regional powers.
For a split second, Dr. Phil managed to get Netanyahu to make some progress in taking responsibility for all this. But neither the Israelis nor the Palestinians, or any other regional powers, have the time to wait and see whether this session of media therapy might lead to Netanyahu’s full rehabilitation. This he should do as a private citizen.
**Yossi Mekelberg is a professor of international relations and an associate fellow of the Middle East and North Africa Program at international affairs think tank Chatham House. X: @YMekelberg