Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on March 19-20/2024
St. Joseph's Annual Holy Day/Elias Bejjani/March 19/2024
Denouncement of Arbitrary Summoning of Activist Dr. Makram Rabah by Lebanese Judiciary/Elias Bejjani/Date: March 17, 2024
Israel hits Hezbollah arms depots in Syria: war monitor
Israel-Hezbollah border skirmishes: Latest developments
Report: US proposes sponsoring Lebanese Army presence in south
A new Israeli brigade on the borders of Lebanon and Syria for a “tangled mountain war”
The southern front is on fire coinciding with the anniversary of the UNIFIL mandate and the demand for the implementation of 1701.
Strikes on Hezbollah warehouses in the Damascus countryside
Haniyeh: Israel wants to sabotage the negotiations... Netanyahu links the destruction of Hamas to the invasion of Rafah
Safa in the Emirates.. Its appearance is the Shiite detainees, but its essence is concessions and “Mossad”!
Al-Murr after meeting with Al-Rahi: It was clear that he had no veto on any name
Geagea after his meeting with the ambassadors of the "Five-Year Committee": We are not prepared to violate the constitution or bypass it to bring in a president affiliated with Hezbollah.
Jumblatt and the "quintet" ambassadors presented the developments and the committee's findings
President Aoun briefed the ambassadors of the Five-Year Committee on the summary of their meetings and their plan of action to complete the presidential election
The Israeli army announces the establishment of the “HaHarim” Brigade on the Syrian-Lebanese border
Bkerki says consultations 'better, easier, and nicer' than Berri's dialogue
Bassil accuses govt. of seeking to 'exclude Christians from state'
Report: US proposes sponsoring Lebanese Army presence in south
On anniversary of its establishment, UNIFIL calls for full implementation of Resolution 1701
Qatar 'cautiously optimistic' after truce talks with Israel spy chief
Blinken to visit Saudi Arabia, Egypt to discuss Gaza ceasefire
Israelis evacuated from Lebanese border wonder if they'll ever return
Lebanon faces poverty trap as the elite 'sabotage' third recovery plan/Nada Maucourant Atallah/The National/Mar 19, 2024

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on March 19-20/2024
Brian Mulroney lying in state in Ottawa as Canadians pay their respects to the former prime minister, wife and children
Netanyahu says Rafah incursion inevitable despite US warnings
Gaza hunger warnings grow as hopes build for ceasefire
Italy opposed to Israeli ground operation in Rafah
Heavy fighting rages around Gaza’s biggest hospital as Israel raids it for a second day
Incoming Palestinian PM lays out plans for reform but faces major obstacles
UN employees in West Bank endure Israeli harassment and obstruction, says report
Saudi Arabia urges action on Gaza crisis at UNESCO meeting
EU council president: To have peace, Europe must prepare for war
Saudi Arabia urges action on Gaza crisis at UNESCO meeting
German police detain 2 Afghans for plotting an attack near Swedish parliament over Qur’an burnings
UN nuclear watchdog chief visits Syria to restart talks
Turkish soldier killed in clash in Iraq, defence ministry says

Titles For The Latest English LCCC  analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources on March 19-20/2024
The Gaza War: The Real Problem...With Friends Like Chuck Schumer, Who Needs Enemies?/Bassam Tawil/Gatestone Institute/March 19, 2024
Dilemmas of War, Dilemmas of Peace/Charles Elias Chartouni/March 19/2024
Saving Sinwar...An Israeli who spent ‘hundreds of hours’ with his country’s most deadly foe assesses his next move/Judith Miller/The Magazine/March 19/2024
Fascism and regional functions on the margins of the tragedy in Gaza/Eyad Abu Shakra/Asharq Al-Awsat/March 19/2024.
US’ Gaza aid maritime effort is woefully insufficient/Kerry Boyd/Arab News/March 19/2024
The countdown to Netanyahu’s departure has begun/Osama Al-Sharif/Arab News/March 19/2024
Are Azerbaijan and Armenia Heading to Peace?/Anna Borshchevskaya/The Washington Institute/March 19/2024
Emirati Military Support Is Making a Difference in Somalia/Ido Levy/The Washington Institute/March 19/2024

Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on March 19-20/2024
St. Joseph's Annual Holy Day
Elias Bejjani/March 19/2024
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/73094/elias-bejjani-saint-annual-josephs-day/
The feast day of St. Joseph, celebrated annually on March 19, holds a special significance for our Bejjani family, a name we have proudly carried for generations. As we commemorate this day, we seek the protection of God and His angels upon our beloved son Youssef and our grandson Joseph, both of whom bear this blessed name. St. Joseph's Day is a cherished occasion in the Maronite-Roman Catholic tradition, honoring the life of St. Joseph, the revered stepfather of Jesus and husband of the Blessed Virgin Mary. Among devout believers, particularly the Lebanese Maronites, March 19 is not only a day of celebration but also believed to be St. Joseph's birthday. In Lebanon, St. Joseph is esteemed as the patron saint of families, revered for his exemplary role as a devoted husband and father figure. His life serves as a profound example of faith, humility, and hard work, attributes deeply cherished within our family and community. St. Joseph's divine assignment was no small feat; entrusted by God to care for Jesus Christ and the Virgin Mary, he embraced his responsibilities with unwavering love, dedication, and reverence. As the earthly guardian of the Holy Family, St. Joseph epitomized selflessness, providing a steadfast foundation of support and protection. As we honor St. Joseph, we also reflect on the virtues he embodied – his humility, strength, and unwavering devotion to God's will. May the legacy of St. Joseph continue to inspire us in our own roles within our families and communities, guiding us with his example of faith and love. On this special day, let us offer our prayers of gratitude and supplication, seeking the blessings of Almighty God upon all who bear the name of Joseph, as we strive to emulate the virtues of our beloved patron saint.

Denouncement of Arbitrary Summoning of Activist Dr. Makram Rabah by Lebanese Judiciary
Elias Bejjani/Date: March 17, 2024
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/127934/127934/
The arbitrary summoning of Dr. Makram Rabah by the Lebanese judiciary is not just an infringement on the rights of one individual, but a direct assault on the principles of freedom and justice that every Lebanese citizen holds dear. Dr. Rabah, a steadfast advocate for Lebanon’s sovereignty and independence, symbolizes the collective voice of those who reject Hezbollah’s occupation and stand for truth and justice.
The actions of the compromised, and hijacked Lebanese judiciary against Dr. Rabah are deplorable and illegal. It is evident that this summoning is a clear violation of his constitutional rights and an attempt to silence dissent against the oppressive practices of Hezbollah. Dr. Rabah fearlessly exposes Hezbollah’s involvement in Lebanon’s destabilization and condemns its exploitation of the Lebanese nation for Iran’s expansionist agenda.
The summoning of Dr. Rabah serves as a stark reminder of Lebanon’s status as an occupied nation, where institutions are manipulated to serve the interests of the occupier. Meanwhile, Hezbollah’s control over Lebanese institutions undermines the sovereignty and independence of the country, jeopardizing the well-being of its people regardless of their religious or social affiliations.
It is imperative to condemn and reject the misuse of the judiciary for the benefit of Hezbollah and its Iranian masters. True justice can only prevail with the liberation of Lebanon from occupation and the full implementation of UN aimed at restoring sovereignty, independence, and the rule of law. The perpetrators of occupation and their collaborators must be held accountable for their crimes against the Lebanese people.
In conclusion, the summoning of Dr. Makram Rabah highlights the urgent need for Lebanon to reclaim its independence and uphold the principles of justice and freedom. The Lebanese people must unite in their demand to end Hezbollah’s occupation and for the restoration of Lebanon’s right as a sovereign nation.

Israel hits Hezbollah arms depots in Syria: war monitor
AFP/March 19, 2024
BEIRUT: Israeli raids hit warehouses storing weapons for the Lebanese Hezbollah group in Syria Tuesday, a war monitor said, as a Syrian military source said air defenses had intercepted several missiles. Israel has launched hundreds of air strikes in Syria since civil war broke out in 2011, targeting Iran-backed forces including Hezbollah as well as Syrian army positions. The strikes have increased since Israel’s war with Palestinian militant group Hamas, a Hezbollah ally, began on October 7. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said the latest strikes near the capital Damascus Tuesday had destroyed weapons and ammunition, causing secondary explosions and fires. A military source quoted by Syrian state media said Israeli “air aggression” had targeted several military positions near Damascus. “Our air defenses took action and shot down several missiles,” the source added. The Britain-based Observatory said it was the second such strike in two days, coming after raids on Sunday hit another Hezbollah weapons depot and a separate site near Damascus. Earlier this month, an Israeli strike reportedly killed an Iranian Revolutionary Guard and two other people in Banias on Syria’s Mediterranean coast. The Israeli army said last week it had hit about 4,500 Hezbollah targets in Lebanon and Syria over the past five months. Israel rarely comments on individual strikes but has repeatedly said it will not allow Iran to expand its presence in Syria.

Israel-Hezbollah border skirmishes: Latest developments
Naharnet/Mar 19, 2024
Israeli warplanes struck Tuesday Marwahin and a house in the southern border town of al-Odaisseh, as the war enters its sixth month. Israeli artillery later shelled the outskirts of Tayr Harfa and al-Naqoura. Border tensions between Hezbollah and Israel have de-escalated in the past few days during the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan while international mediators pushed for a truce in Gaza. It is still not clear whether a Gaza ceasefire would apply to Lebanon. Although Hezbollah said it would abide by any Gaza truce, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said that Israel would increase its strikes on Hezbollah even if a ceasefire is reached in Gaza. On Monday, Hezbollah carried out 6 attacks on northern Israel and the occupied Shebaa Farms. Since the war in Gaza erupted in October, there have been near-daily exchanges along the Lebanon-Israel border and international mediators have scrambled to prevent an all-out war in tiny Lebanon. At least 322 people have been killed in Lebanon, mainly Hezbollah fighters but also 56 civilians, according to an AFP tally. In Israel, at least 10 soldiers and seven civilians have been killed in the cross-border exchanges, the military says.

Report: US proposes sponsoring Lebanese Army presence in south
Naharnet/Mar 19, 2024
Washington has proposed sponsoring the “comprehensive military structure in south Lebanon for years to come” once a solution is reached for the Israel-Hezbollah conflict, Al-Arabiya’s Al-Hadath channel has quoted sources as saying. “There is an American-European desire to assist the Lebanese Army financially pending the presence of a comprehensive plan,” the sources said. The sources, however, said that Paris and Washington “are not coordinating their stances on south Lebanon” and that “Washington has informed the Lebanese that it is incapable of preventing a war.”Border tensions between Hezbollah and Israel have de-escalated in the past few days during the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan as international mediators push for a truce in Gaza. It is still not clear whether a Gaza ceasefire would apply to Lebanon. Although Hezbollah has said it would abide by any Gaza truce, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has said that Israel would increase its strikes on Hezbollah even if a ceasefire is reached in Gaza. Since the war in Gaza erupted in October, there have been near-daily exchanges along the Lebanon-Israel border and international mediators have scrambled to prevent an all-out war in tiny Lebanon. At least 322 people have been killed in Lebanon, mainly Hezbollah fighters but also 56 civilians, according to an AFP tally. In Israel, at least 10 soldiers and seven civilians have been killed in the cross-border exchanges, the military says.

A new Israeli brigade on the borders of Lebanon and Syria for a “tangled mountain war”
Janoubia/March 19, 2024
The Israeli army announced, as part of what it called “amending the operational response on the northern border,” the formation of a new regional brigade named the Mountain Brigade, which will operate under the command of the 210th Division, and its area of operations will be Mount Hermon and Mount Dov, the occupied Lebanese Shebaa Farms. The “Haharim” Brigade, or Mountain Brigade, will be assigned to the areas of Mount Hermon and Mount Dov, under the 210th “Bashan” Division, replacing the current 810th Regional “Hermon” Brigade, and it will be led by Lieutenant Colonel Liron Appleman. The army statement said, “After the joint work carried out by the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the Planning and Force Building Division, the Land Arm, and the Northern Command, and an analysis of the operational needs of the IDF during the war, the Mountain Brigade will begin its activities in the coming weeks.” In the words of the 210th Division Commander, Brigadier General Zion Ritzon: “The establishment of the brigade will provide a high-quality operational response and enable readiness for defense and attack in a variety of scenarios that suit the course of the terrain, against the enemy in the region, on two fronts at the same time, Lebanon and Syria.” After the kidnapping of the two Israeli prisoners, from the vicinity of Aita al-Shaab, in On July 12, 2006, Israel launched a massive aggression against Lebanon, which lasted 33 days, and was stopped pursuant to Resolution 1701, according to which UNIFIL was strengthened and the Lebanese army was deployed on the border.

The southern front is on fire coinciding with the anniversary of the UNIFIL mandate and the demand for the implementation of 1701.
Hussein Saad/Janoubia/March 19, 2024
Between UN Security Council Resolutions 425-426 issued in the wake of the Israeli invasion of Lebanon (Operation Litani), according to which international peacekeeping forces “UNIFIL” were sent to the south on the nineteenth of March 1978, and the enemy’s withdrawal, which was not implemented at that time, until May of the year 2000, Between UN Security Council Resolution 1701, there is a time margin of 28 years, during which political debate is raging about its implementation, at a time when Israel still occupies large areas of Lebanese territory along the border, including the Shebaa Farms, the Kfar Shuba Hills, the northern part of the village of Ghajar, and 13 other points. During the past 46 years, not much has changed in the content of the conflict with the Israeli enemy, despite the multiplicity of resistance identities, parties, strategies and alliances, and the change in influence on the southern and regional arena. The anniversary of UNIFIL’s presence in the South Litani area, which did not celebrate the occasion as usual at the General Command headquarters in Naqoura, coincided with a mini-war, on the Lebanese-Palestinian border, since October 8, 2023, where it witnesses on a daily basis a field escalation between the “Hezbollah Party.” “God” and the Israeli enemy, in light of Israeli threats to expand this war, if a political agreement is reached with Lebanon, under which Israel aspires to remove Hezbollah from the Lebanese-Palestinian border.
The scene of the war of occupancy and support, launched by “Hezbollah,” this week included classic operations for the party, which were within limits, targeting Israeli sites and settlements on the border, while the occupation forces expanded their raids, to the town of Rab Thilaine, on the outskirts of Wadi Al-Hujair, and renewed their raids. On Aita al-Shaab, al-Adisa, Kafr Kila, Naqoura, and Marwahin, Hezbollah responded by attacking a number of sites, in Birkat Risha, al-Tahit, al-Malikiyah, Zarit, Ruwaisat al-Alam, and Branbet, using Falaq and Burkan missiles in a number of them. The Al-Tahat attack, according to what was allowed to be published in the Israeli media, resulted in the wounding of two enemy soldiers, one with moderate injuries and the other with minor injuries, while Hezbollah said that this attack caused deaths and injuries among the group of soldiers.

Strikes on Hezbollah warehouses in the Damascus countryside
Haniyeh: Israel wants to sabotage the negotiations... Netanyahu links the destruction of Hamas to the invasion of Rafah
Nedda Al Watn/March 20, 2024
After the head of the Israeli Mossad, David Barnea, left the Qatari capital, Doha, on the 165th day of the war yesterday, the head of the Hamas political bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, accused the Hebrew state of seeking to sabotage the “Doha negotiations” aimed at reaching a truce, by launching, at dawn on Monday, an operation that included encircling... Al-Shifa Medical Complex in Gaza City and its storming. Haniyeh considered that the attack on the complex “confirms that this enemy is fighting the return of life to the Gaza Strip and seeks to destroy all components of human life,” pointing out that Israel’s targeting of “police officers, members, and government administrative agencies in the Strip, demonstrates its attempt to spread chaos and perpetuate bloodshed.” Yesterday, the Israeli army continued its operation inside the complex, which it surrounded with tanks, where it claimed to have killed more than 50 fighters it clashed with, and arrested about 180 suspects. However, the Hamas Ministry of Health stated that among the detainees were “medical personnel, injured and patients” inside the hospital. This comes at a time when negotiations are continuing in Doha, where Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesman Majid Al-Ansari explained that Barnea “left Doha,” but “the technical teams are meeting while we speak,” and are discussing the details of a possible agreement after the main negotiators discussed “the main issues.” Al-Ansari said: “We are now at a stage where we expect to present the counter-proposal to Hamas, but this is not the last step in the process,” adding: “I do not think we have reached a moment where we can say that we are close to reaching an agreement.” “We are cautiously optimistic...but it is too early to announce any successes.” Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterated that there is no way to destroy Hamas in Rafah except through a ground invasion, noting that he revealed this matter “very clearly” to US President Joe Biden. He believed that there were parties inside Israel that joined Washington to prevent a military operation in Rafah. In this context, the White House stated that American and Israeli officials will likely meet in Washington early next week to discuss the upcoming operation in Rafah, indicating that there are great concerns about reports of an imminent famine in Gaza. In parallel, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken explained that his sixth tour to the East Since the start of the Gaza war, which will include Saudi Arabia and Egypt, the Middle East will discuss reaching a ceasefire agreement and discuss “the sound basis for a lasting peace in the region,” warning that 100 percent of Gaza’s population suffers from high levels of acute food insecurity, and this is the time The first in which an entire people is classified in this way.
In parallel, Washington believed that Israel should allow the Commissioner-General of UNRWA, Philippe Lazzarini, to enter the Gaza Strip, the day after he announced that the Hebrew state authorities had prevented him from doing so, while America rejected the assessment of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Volker Türk, that Israeli restrictions on the entry of aid into Gaza had It amounts to a “war crime.” Regionally, Israeli raids targeted Hezbollah weapons depots in the Yabroud area in the Damascus countryside at dawn yesterday, leading to their destruction and the outbreak of fire, according to the Syrian Observatory, in a targeting that is the second of its kind within 48 hours. On the other hand, The Houthi rebels claimed to have targeted “the American Mado ship in the Red Sea with a number of suitable naval missiles,” pointing to targeting the Eilat region in Israel with “a number of winged missiles,” while the American army had destroyed 7 anti-ship missiles, 3 drones, and 3 storage containers on Monday. Weapons in Houthi-controlled areas in Yemen were considered to pose a threat to commercial ships and US Navy ships.

Safa in the Emirates.. Its appearance is the Shiite detainees, but its essence is concessions and “Mossad”!
Janoubia/March 19, 2024
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/128022/128022
In an unprecedented step with great significance, Hezbollah’s Coordination and Liaison Unit official, Wafiq Safa, left for the United Arab Emirates. According to circulating information, “Safa left on Monday on a private plane accompanied by three unidentified people, aiming to discuss with Emirati officials the file of detained Shiites linked to Hezbollah, and that there are positive signs in this regard.” While sources accompanying Janoubia confirmed that “Hezbollah will pay a price unless its nature is specified to the UAE, in exchange for the release of prisoners,” they indicated that “the party is seeking to break its isolation and is ready to make major concessions, in exchange for opening friendly relations with the Gulf states.” She pointed out that the irony is that “Safa will go with his feet to the Emirates in his security capacity, which Hezbollah accused of being a center for the Israeli Mossad to visit, and so how will he deal with this reality that the party imposed on itself”?!

Al-Murr after meeting with Al-Rahi: It was clear that he had no veto on any name
National/March 19, 2024
Maronite Patriarch Cardinal Mar Bechara Boutros Al-Rai received, this afternoon, in the Patriarchal edifice, in Bkerke, MP Michel Murr, who said after the meeting: “The visit is to discuss with His Beatitude the exceptional circumstances that the country is going through. We will also discuss the current political situations and developments in The region, in light of the ongoing war. Certainly, our master insists and stresses that the representatives be present in order to elect a president of the republic as soon as possible, and he welcomes the idea of dialogue, but he wants us as representatives to be more practical on the ground, and for the plan of action to be to open a parliament. Representatives and elect a president as soon as possible. He pointed out that "His Excellency was clear that he did not have a veto on any name," pointing out that "the importance is for the interest of the country and to speed up the election of a president." Regarding the five-member committee’s move, Al-Murr said: “The intentions are good, but if we cannot help ourselves, how will they help us?” In response to a question, Al-Murr affirmed “their adherence to the nomination of the head of the Marada Movement, Suleiman Franjieh,” and said: “We are loyal to this choice.”

Geagea after his meeting with the ambassadors of the "Five-Year Committee": We are not prepared to violate the constitution or bypass it to bring in a president affiliated with Hezbollah.
NNA/March 19, 2024
The head of the Lebanese Forces Party, Samir Geagea, met in Maarab with the ambassadors of the "Five-Year Committee", the French Ambassador Hervé Magro, the Egyptian Ambassador Alaa Moussa, the American Ambassador Lisa Johnson, the Saudi Ambassador Walid Al-Bukhari, and the Qatari Ambassador Saud bin Abdul Rahman Al Thani, in the presence of MPs Strida Geagea. , Ghassan Hasbani, Melhem Riachi, head of the Foreign Relations Agency, former Minister Richard Kouyoumjian, and Mark Saad and Tony Darwish from the agency, in addition to the political advisors at the American embassy, Magan Soller and Fadi Hafez, the first advisor at the Egyptian embassy, Mustafa Mahrous, and the political and media advisor at the French embassy. Romain Calvary. After the meeting, which lasted an hour, Geagea affirmed that “the five countries are friendly to Lebanon and are striving to facilitate Lebanese affairs, especially the presidential elections at the present time. Hence, I was clear with them so that some people would not deceive them and put them in the course of inaccurate matters because the problem is in another place". He continued: “The problem lies in the obstruction caused by the resistance axis. It does not want to hold presidential elections at the present time, for well-known strategic reasons, and I announce that frankly and loudly. If this axis wants to hold them, it wants it to be according to its own measure, otherwise it will obstruct it, and this is the essence.” The problem. I told the ambassadors that if anyone has a solution to this problem, let him present it, otherwise “this is bread on the plate” in wasted time, in addition to it being a comedy - a tragedy to entertain the Lebanese people, starting with the dialogue and everything else. He added: “After passing this tense stage in the Middle East Perhaps this axis will accept the holding of this presidential election, but in any case it will run with a candidate affiliated with it.” In response to a question, Geagea pointed out that “no name has been proposed to us, as we are in the process of presidential elections, meaning that the Speaker of Parliament, Nabih Berri, must call for An open electoral session with successive sessions, to elect a new president for the country, surprising what we are witnessing today at this level, in light of the existence of the constitution.”
He added: “After a while, we will face the dilemma of naming a prime minister, and according to the constitution, the prime minister-designate is named by the representatives after parliamentary consultations in the Republican Palace, and a decree is issued in this regard. Is it required that we also hold a dialogue session to name a new prime minister? Enough disregard for the constitution. They are actually destroying the entire country, and we reject that. The most we will accept is the initiative proposed by the National Moderation Bloc, which is that we, as representatives, come together among each other and engage in dialogue within a specific time limit. If we agree on a candidate who is in it, and if we do not agree, we go to the electoral session and then Whoever wins wins, whoever loses loses.” He pointed out that “enough debauchery and laughter at the people, they lie to the people and take the Five-Year Committee and dismiss it without any result.” He added: “I do not know the extent of the five-member committee’s conviction, but what is certain is that the five ambassadors have the intention to address the Lebanese issue, but they are colliding with a wall on the other side. They tried to take something from here (Maarab), but they did not take and will not take anything,” “Normally, nothing is wrong.” It is given, "given that we are not prepared to violate or bypass the constitution, to bring in a president affiliated with Hezbollah." In response to a question, he said: “I did not find anyone more clever than Speaker Berri in the process of wasting Al-Shinkash, and I bear witness to that.” While he stressed that “the National Moderation Initiative is well-known and its terms are clear,” even if President Berri “will soon frustrate its brothers in Muttrah,” the essence of this initiative is that the parliamentary blocs will fall apart. Geagea described Berri as “the babysitter of the axis of resistance.” And about a third option in light of the insistence on clinging to the nomination. The head of the Marada Movement, Suleiman Franjieh, responded to Geagea: “The resistance team did not follow the third option in any way, as it adheres to Franjieh, and calls for dialogue, at a time when serious dialogues are ongoing between the political parties, but they clash with the unwillingness of this team to hold presidential elections in this circumstance, and when He wants to implement it and will only accept Franjieh as president.”

Jumblatt and the "quintet" ambassadors presented the developments and the committee's findings
NNA/March 19, 2024
Former President of the Progressive Socialist Party, Walid Jumblatt, received, at his residence in Clemenceau, the ambassadors of the Five-Year Committee, in the presence of the party’s head, MP Taymour Jumblatt, and members of the Democratic Gathering, Wael Abu Faour and Hadi Abu Al-Hassan. During the meeting, they “discussed the latest findings of the five-member committee and discussed developments and the latest developments.”

President Aoun briefed the ambassadors of the Five-Year Committee on the summary of their meetings and their plan of action to complete the presidential election
NNA/March 19, 2024
President General Michel Aoun received in his residence in Rabieh the ambassadors of the Five-Year Committee, the Ambassador of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Walid Bukhari, the Ambassador of the French Republic, Herve Magro, the Ambassador of the State of Qatar, Saud bin Abdul Rahman Al Thani, the Ambassador of the Arab Republic of Egypt, Alaa Moussa, and the Ambassador of the United States of America, Lisa Johnson. The ambassadors briefed President Aoun on the summary of their meetings and their action plan “aimed at completing the presidential election.”
Aoun President Aoun stressed “the necessity for the presidential candidate to have the intention and ability to address the crises that Lebanon is suffering from, especially those affecting the economy and security, and to follow up on investigations into financial crimes.”
Musa
After the meeting, the Egyptian ambassador made a statement in which he said: “We were honored to have President Aoun receive us, and in fact we were keen to meet him for two important reasons. First, for his political symbolism, and the other, for his long expertise and experience. In fact, we were keen to listen to his advice and presented to him our plan for action in the coming period. And what the quintet envisions is the path that can be followed in the next few days leading to the election of the president. He gave us many important pieces of advice, and I believe that these tips will greatly benefit the work of the committee in its upcoming meetings with various political forces. Today we have a day full of meetings and we will finish and continue, God willing, at the beginning of the month. The next step is with the rest of the political blocs to achieve common ground that allows us to make a breakthrough in this difficult file, and we hope that all of these efforts will lead to us concluding this file as quickly as possible.”

The Israeli army announces the establishment of the “HaHarim” Brigade on the Syrian-Lebanese border
Jerusalem/Asharq Al-Awsat/March 19, 2024
Today (Tuesday), the Israeli army announced the establishment of a new brigade on the Syrian-Lebanese border under the name of the regional “Haharim” (Mountains) Brigade. Israeli army spokesman Avichai Adraee reported on his account on the “X” platform that the brigade will operate on the northern border in the areas of Jabal al-Sheikh and Jabal al-Rus (Har Dov), and Colonel Liron Appleman was appointed commander of the brigade, according to the Arab World News Agency. He added: “The brigade will begin its activity during the next few weeks, as it will specialize in fighting in complex terrain and mountains.” Tension has prevailed on the Lebanese-Israeli border and intermittent exchange of shelling since the start of the Israeli military campaign on the Gaza Strip on October 7th, following an attack launched by the Hamas movement on population centers and towns surrounding the Strip.

Bkerki says consultations 'better, easier, and nicer' than Berri's dialogue
Naharnet/Mar 19, 2024
Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi has told the ambassadors of the member states of the five-nation group for Lebanon, as he met them Monday in Bkerki, that the call for dialogue to elect a president surprises him. "The Constitution is the highest law, so why are we trespassing it?" Bkerki's spokesperson Walid Ghayad said. Ghayad added that the Parliament Speaker was elected and the Prime Minister appointed without dialogue, dubbing dialogue "a waste of time". Crisis-hit Lebanon has been without a president since Michel Aoun's term ended in October 2022, with neither of the two main blocs -- Hezbollah and its opponents -- having the majority required to elect one. The international community and the five-nation group have long urged Lebanese leaders to end months of political wrangling and stem the financial meltdown. Speaker Nabih Berri called for dialogue to resolve the presidential crisis and reach a consensus but the Lebanese Forces and the FPM rejected his call. The National Moderation parliamentary bloc later launched an initiative in February, calling for consultations in Parliament followed by open electoral sessions. Bkerki, the FPM and the LF welcomed the initiative while Hezbollah did not give a positive response. Berri later said he masterminded the initiative and asked the bloc not to mention him and to use the word "consultations" instead of "dialogue". He said that he would head the meeting and that the Parliament's General Secretariat would call for it."Berri's invitation to dialogue would be a precedent," Ghayad said. "We fear that the presidential vacancy would protract every time under the excuse of dialogue and prior understanding.""It would have been better, easier, and nicer to hold consultations as the National Moderation bloc suggested instead of Berri calling for it," he added. The ambassadors of the member states of the five-nation group for Lebanon, which comprises the U.S., France, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Egypt, met Monday with Berri and al-Rahi. During the meeting, al-Rahi called on resorting to the constitution to elect a president because it is "the shortcut to the democratic process", Bkerki's sources said. The quintet met on Tuesday with former President Michel Aoun and will resume its meetings with other political forces early next month.

Bassil accuses govt. of seeking to 'exclude Christians from state'
Naharnet/Mar 19, 2024
Free Patriotic Movement chief Jebran Bassil on Tuesday warned that if the caretaker government “appoints 234 customs agents not including a single Christian,” it would be “insisting on excluding Christians from the state.”“We hold responsible Deputy PM Saadeh al-Shami and the ministers Johnny Korm, Ziad Makari, Walid Nassar, George Kallas, Najla Riachi and George Boujikian if they secure the session’s quorum,” Bassil said in a post on the X platform. “We also hold responsible the political sides to which these ministers belong and the political forces that are in the government or are covering it, topped by the Amal Movement and Hezbollah. The responsibility also falls on all the MPs who are refusing to sign a petition for putting the government on trial, because they are encouraging the government to carry on with its practices,” Bassil added. “This decision and other decisions, as well as preventing the election of a president conforming to the National Pact, are telling Christians that they are unwanted in the state unless they abide by their conditions. Where are you pushing Christians to? Remember what we have told you: things should be correct so that we can stay together,” the FPM chief went on to say. Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati announced later on Tuesday that the discussion of the appointments in Cabinet was discussed for further studying of the issue. “I will not allow the dispute that erupted in the Higher Customs Council to be moved to the Council of Ministers. I will also not allow the exploitation of this issue by any party or political movement using a populist rhetoric to achieve gains and score points,” Mikati said during the session. “I’m the keenest on addressing this issue based on the principle of keenness on everyone and on national unity. And to avoid any dispute at any level within Cabinet, especially that the issue has sectarian connotations, I have asked for further scrutiny, while reaffirming Cabinet’s previous decision, and I call on everyone to address the file objectively and away from detestable sectarian exploitation,” Mikati added.

Report: US proposes sponsoring Lebanese Army presence in south
Naharnet/Mar 19, 2024
Washington has proposed sponsoring the “comprehensive military structure in south Lebanon for years to come” once a solution is reached for the Israel-Hezbollah conflict, Al-Arabiya’s Al-Hadath channel has quoted sources as saying. “There is an American-European desire to assist the Lebanese Army financially pending the presence of a comprehensive plan,” the sources said. The sources, however, said that Paris and Washington “are not coordinating their stances on south Lebanon” and that “Washington has informed the Lebanese that it is incapable of preventing a war.”Border tensions between Hezbollah and Israel have de-escalated in the past few days during the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan as international mediators push for a truce in Gaza. It is still not clear whether a Gaza ceasefire would apply to Lebanon. Although Hezbollah has said it would abide by any Gaza truce, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has said that Israel would increase its strikes on Hezbollah even if a ceasefire is reached in Gaza. Since the war in Gaza erupted in October, there have been near-daily exchanges along the Lebanon-Israel border and international mediators have scrambled to prevent an all-out war in tiny Lebanon. At least 322 people have been killed in Lebanon, mainly Hezbollah fighters but also 56 civilians, according to an AFP tally. In Israel, at least 10 soldiers and seven civilians have been killed in the cross-border exchanges, the military says.

On anniversary of its establishment, UNIFIL calls for full implementation of Resolution 1701
Naharnet/Mar 19, 2024
As UNIFIL marked the 46th anniversary of its establishment today, Tuesday, its leadership renewed calls for all actors to "put down their weapons, recommit to Security Council Resolution 1701, and work toward a political and diplomatic solution," a statement said. “Resolution 1701 has been challenged by current events, but it remains as relevant and necessary as ever,” said Head of Mission and Force Commander Aroldo Lázaro. "We call on all parties to commit to implementing the resolution in full. Our more than 10,000 peacekeepers continue their critical monitoring, de-escalation, and liaison work, and we stand ready to support a peaceful resolution to the current situation," he added. The mission did not hold its yearly ceremony at its headquarters in Naqoura, as peacekeepers are "focused on accomplishing their mission amidst the breaches of the cessation of hostilities in violation of resolution 1701 along the Blue Line," a UNIFIL statement said. Nonetheless, Lieutenant General Lázaro paid tribute to the civilian and military peacekeepers who have served with the mission over the years, including over 330 who have died serving for peace. “The sacrifice of those who lost their lives here is not in vain,” Lázaro continued. “Our efforts today, in these very difficult circumstances, are a tribute to their memories. Their sacrifice motivates us to continue our work toward de-escalation in the short-term, and peace in the long-term,” he added. He also commended the work of the more than 10,000 military peacekeepers from 49 countries who, alongside their civilian colleagues, and despite relentless and daily exchanges of fire, have "stayed their course in monitoring the fast-evolving situation in south Lebanon, maintaining high operational tempo and visible presence, and in assisting local communities," the statement said. The United Nations Security Council established the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon, or UNIFIL, with Resolutions 425 and 426 on 19 March 1978. The mission’s mandate was expanded with Resolution 1701 following the 2006 war.

Qatar 'cautiously optimistic' after truce talks with Israel spy chief
Associated Press/Mar 19, 2024
Israel’s intelligence chief has left Doha after talks aimed at trying to reach a cease-fire, Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesperson Majed al-Ansari said Tuesday at a news conference, adding that Qatari officials were “cautiously optimistic” about the negotiations. Al-Ansari said Mossad chief David Barnea had left Qatar already. He said technical negotiations between Israel and Hamas were ongoing, with Qatar carrying messages between the parties. “I don’t think we’re at a moment now where we can say that we are close to a deal,” al-Ansari said. “It’s still too early to announce any successes.” He stressed that any Israeli ground operation in Rafah would be a “catastrophe” and could set back any talks.

Blinken to visit Saudi Arabia, Egypt to discuss Gaza ceasefire
Agence France Presse/Mar 19, 2024
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will travel to Saudi Arabia and Egypt this week to discuss efforts to secure a ceasefire in Gaza and increase humanitarian aid to the Palestinian territory, a State Department spokesperson said Tuesday. Blinken will hold talks with Saudi leaders in Jeddah on Wednesday before travelling to Cairo on Thursday for talks with Egyptian authorities, spokesman Matthew Miller said from the Philippines, where Blinken is touring. This will be Blinken's sixth trip to the Middle East since the start of the war between Israel and Hamas on October 7. "The Secretary will discuss efforts to reach an immediate ceasefire agreement that secures the release of all remaining hostages, intensified international efforts to increase humanitarian assistance to Gaza, and coordination on post-conflict planning for Gaza, including ensuring Hamas can no longer govern or repeat the attacks of October 7," Miller said in a statement. Blinken will also discuss "a political path for the Palestinian people with security assurances with Israel, and an architecture for lasting peace and security in the region."And he will raise the imperative issue of ending attacks by Yemen's Houthi rebels on commercial ships, to restore stability and security in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, Miller added. Blinken is in Manila as part of a brief Asia tour aimed at reinforcing US support for regional allies against China. The announcement comes a day after Israel's Mossad spy chief, David Barnea, was to meet with Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani and Egyptian officials in Doha, a source close to the talks said.The meeting follows the latest proposal from Hamas for a six-week truce, vastly more aid into Gaza and the initial release of about 42 hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners held by Israel. During the proposed truce, Israeli forces would withdraw from "all cities and populated areas" in Gaza, according to a Hamas official. The war began when Hamas launched an unprecedented attack from Gaza on October 7 that left about 1,160 dead in Israel, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally of official figures. Hamas militants also seized about 250 Israeli and foreign hostages, of whom Israel believes about 130 remain in Gaza, including 33 who are presumed dead. Israel has carried out a relentless bombing campaign and ground offensive that Gaza's health ministry says has killed at least 31,726 people, most of them women and children. The United Nations has warned for weeks that a famine is looming in Gaza, with aid agencies reporting huge difficulties gaining access to the territory, particularly the north. Donors have turned to deliveries by air or sea, but these are not viable alternatives to land deliveries, U.N. agencies say.

Israelis evacuated from Lebanese border wonder if they'll ever return
Associated Press/Mar 19, 2024
For four years, Sivan Shoshani Partush recruited families for Kibbutz Malkiya, a community of around 400 that she calls her "little slice of heaven." It wasn't a hard sell: spacious homes, beautiful nature, paths winding through manicured lawns, and a slower pace of life than in Israel's frantic cities. The border with Lebanon is just 200 meters away. Partush would pass it on her daily runs, a feature of the landscape just like the view of the snow-topped Hermon Mountain in the winter. "There was fear, but I got over it, because that's the choice I made, because someone was protecting me," said Partush. "But now there's a feeling that no one is protecting us."Among approximately 60,000 Israelis evacuated from northern Israel after months of cross-border fighting, Partush and her children are staying temporarily in another kibbutz, and she isn't sure if she wants to return to Malkiya. Nearly 91,000 people from south Lebanon have also been displaced. Lebanon's Hezbollah began launching rockets towards Israel one day after Hamas-led militants stormed into southern Israel on Oct. 7. More than 31,000 people have been killed in Israel's subsequent invasion of Gaza. There has been near-daily violence along the Lebanon-Israel border and international mediators are scrambling to prevent an all-out war between Hezbollah and Israel. The fighting has killed eight civilians and 11 soldiers in Israel. More than 200 Hezbollah fighters and about 40 civilians have died in Lebanon.
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has said the Israeli military is concentrating on Gaza, but that Israel has a simple aim in Lebanon: to push Hezbollah away from the border, either by diplomacy or force.
So far, that hasn't happened.
Israel said it has targeted 4,500 Hezbollah sites in the past five months. But Hezbollah's well-stocked and deeply entrenched fighters continue to launch rockets, and Israel said the militants have attempted to or have actually crossed the border half a dozen times. Partush is grimly resigned to the reality that it may be a year before she can return home, if she ever goes back, and she struggles to explain what would make her feel safe in the post-Oct. 7 world. The reality of living next to Lebanon has irrevocably changed, she said. "They need to create a security belt, we need to have an Israeli army presence always, and they need to strengthen the emergency squads so not even a mouse can pass through the border," she said. Some in her kibbutz are doubtful about returning, and it's hurting their tight-knit community, said Partush. "We want to go home, but on the other hand, where will we go? It's very scary," she said. Many Israelis who evacuated from the Gaza border after the Hamas attack have returned home in recent weeks. Those from the hardest-hit kibbutzim are moving to semi-permanent housing while their homes are rebuilt. In Sderot, the largest city near Gaza with some 30,000 residents, life is starting to return to normal. Schools reopened this month. City streets, deserted in the early days of the war, are bustling again. Stores and cafes are doing brisk business, even as the conflict continues just a few kilometers away. Some 30,000 displaced Israelis are living in hotel rooms across the country as the war enters its sixth month, according to the Prime Minister's Office. Others have moved to rented apartments or are staying with family. From their cramped hotel rooms, evacuees from Israel's north have been watching news reports showing Sderot's residents return home with mixed feelings, aware their journey is far from over.
Israelis who have grown up under the shadow of rockets from Lebanon no longer find it tolerable. "I don't want my daughters to grow up like I did," said Michal Nidam, a high school counselor from Kiryat Shmona, the largest city in Israel's north, which has suffered rocket fire from Lebanon for decades. "I have had anxiety since I was little. I used to sleep with my fingers in my ears, under the bed, and many times I slept with shoes and clothes on." After the Hamas attack, Nidam and her children bounced between rented apartments for a few months and they now live in a hotel in Tiberias. Her two teenage daughters have one room, while her two youngest daughters stay with her in another crammed with clothes, snacks and their small dog. Some families are struggling with the transitory living arrangements. Bored teenagers are tempted by drugs, alcohol and other acts of rebellion, while their parents are overwhelmed with the challenges of evacuation, Nidam said. The city of Kiryat Shmona has employed her to serve as a trusted adult presence in the lobby in the evenings, talking with the teens and making sure their parents are kept in the loop about their comings and goings.
Another challenge: "Families have been broken up," Nidam said. Nidam's mother is in Jerusalem, while her 85-year-old father refuses to leave the city and — wearing army fatigues — volunteers for an emergency preparedness squad. Nidam's husband and some of her brothers also remained to serve as emergency personnel. Other displaced siblings are spread across the country. Despite the violence, the city of Kiryat Shmona says an estimated 3,000 residents stayed — either through choice or because they perform essential roles. Drivers now steer empty buses down deserted streets in the former northern economic hub. A hardware store is among a handful of shops still open. Haim Menus, 70, a baker who was wounded in 1998 while serving as a tank driver during Israel's occupation of southern Lebanon, said he will not leave and that he trusts God to protect him. His hours at the bakery have been slashed because they have so few customers, and he tries not to spend too much time outside in case a siren warns of incoming rockets. Menus said his neighbors want to return but that fear keeps them away."Who doesn't want to return to his family, his home, the children, schools, kindergartens?" he asked, just moments after a siren wailed and he dashed inside the hardware store for shelter. "But it's dangerous."

Lebanon faces poverty trap as the elite 'sabotage' third recovery plan
Nada Maucourant Atallah/The National/Mar 19, 2024
Council of Ministers will not be reviewing new plan to reverse the country's sharp economic decline
That is not proving to be the case for the third version of Lebanon's long-expected government economic recovery plan, aimed at addressing the country’s financial losses that exceed $70 billion and restructuring its insolvent banking sector. The stakes are high. For depositors, locked out of their savings, it will lay out the mechanisms of restitution. Except for some well-connected Lebanese, most have lost all their life savings. For the banks, it will determine which will survive and which will be forced into bankruptcy.
It is also a condition to secure a much-needed $3 billion loan programme from the International Monetary Fund, a prerequisite for unlocking any foreign financing.
Despite the urgency of the situation, five years into a crisis labelled by the World Bank as one of the worst since 1850, which has pushed 80 per cent of the population into poverty, the government's economic recovery plan, which was met with staunch opposition, is not on the agenda of the Council of Ministers this Tuesday.
“As such, it is highly unlikely for the plan to be adopted in its current form, given the opposition it has faced,” Deputy Prime Minister Saade Chami, one of the plan's contributors, told The National.
Mr Chami said the 60-page draft law had drawn heavy criticism from various corners – the Association des Banques du Liban (ABL), economic organisations, MPs and some ministers – before it had even been debated.
“Some have criticised the draft law even before reading but they have done so on hearsay and before they had the chance to discuss it with its authors,” he said.
Dismissed as a Ponzi scheme, a fraudulent system in which funds from new investors are used to pay off earlier ones, the Lebanese economy – fuelled by exorbitant interests on deposits – completely collapsed in 2019 after decades of squandering of public funds.
Opponents and defenders of the recovery plan are clashing over how to divvy up the enormous bill of this unsustainable policy among stakeholders – the state, the central bank, shareholders and depositors.
Opponents of the plan argue that it is too lenient towards the state, which should bear the responsibility for misusing the funds lent by the financial sector.
Those who defend it say the state is financially broken and simply lacks the means to bail out depositors – at least for now.
“Any draft law is susceptible to changes and amendments, let alone a law that deals with very complicated and difficult issues such bank resolution and how to deal with the large financial gap that exists in the banking sector,” Mr Chami said.
“Having a plan, even if imperfect, that could be changed and amended is preferable to having none at all. But this requires joint and genuine efforts on the part of those who are responsible for it in the first place. One person alone cannot make that happen."
A ‘stillborn’ plan
The plan, crafted with the assistance of the central bank, Banque du Liban (BDL), was sent to ministers in February for their comments before a scheduled Council of Ministers meeting later that month.
The meeting was cancelled, however, and there has been no word since on when the proposal will be reviewed.
“The plan is stillborn,” Henri Chaoul, a former Finance Ministry adviser, told The National.
This resistance to much-needed reforms, he explained, has been coming from the same coalition of politicians and bankers united in one aim – to deny the colossal financial losses.
“Bankers don’t want to declare bankruptcy, while politicians resort to populism to delay facing the harsh truth,” he said.
“It's all about the attitude towards reforms. It's simple to shoot down any solution without offering an alternative."
The Lebanese elite's prevarications appear to have tested the patience of the IMF. Its representatives are scheduled to visit Lebanon in the first half of this year for the Article IV consultation, which is conducted annually for all member countries to assess their financial condition, although a date haas not been set.
Official sources told The National that this is related to security reasons, as a border conflict between Lebanon's Hezbollah militia and the Israeli military is raging in the south of the country.
But several informed sources said the IMF may skip the visit this year, deeming it pointless until tangible progress is achieved.
It is deja vu. In 2020, the plan of Hassan Diab, prime minister at the time, crashed and burnt, much like the government's plan in 2022.
“All these plans are cut from the same cloth,” Mr Chaoul said. "And they all stumble over the same hurdles."
But Lebanon is not circling back to square one: It is plunging deeper into crisis.
“The longer we delay, the more challenging the situation will become and the greater the losses. The faster we move with the reforms, the less time we need to recover deposits,” Mr Chami said.
“Time is of the essence and its passing is a loss for depositors. Past solutions are no longer up-to-date. What has been missing is the political courage to act decisively," a BDL source told The National.
Bailout, 'lirification', state assets
The latest plan says amounts below the protected threshold of $100,000 will be reimbursed to depositors gradually.
This accounts for about $20 billion of the $90 billion deposited at the central bank, said Jean Riachi, chief executive of the Lebanese Investment and Capital Bank.
Banks unable to return deposits will be restructured, including the resetting of their capital to zero.
As for the remaining $70 billion in deposits above $100,000, these will be removed from banks' balance sheets and reimbursed through various mechanisms.
These include bail-in, where a portion of the deposits is exchanged for equity participation; lirification, which means converting the funds into Lebanon's depreciating lira currency; and conversion into securities linked to a deposit restitution fund tied to state assets.
The 'deposit wipeout plan'?
The plan's adversaries have called it the “deposit wipeout plan”.
“The time of recovery and the threshold for protected deposits is not acceptable for depositors,” the BDL source said.
“They are aspects worth discussing, such as time of recovery for protected deposits and bailout mechanisms with are too vague, but the plan should not be outright dismissed,” Mr Chaoul stressed.
For the Association des Banques du Liban, the banking lobby, deposit recovery could be maximised if the state dips into its pocket.
“Banks shoulder the burden of the current plan, with no real expense for the BDL or the Lebanese state,” a leaked document attributed to ABL said.
Explosive lobbed at Lebanon bank amid currency crisisExplosive lobbed at Lebanon bank amid currency crisis
Mr Riachi said: “Banks argue that the state should be responsible for all deposits. But the real reason is that there's not even $20 billion in the system, maybe for just four or five banks."
“Most of the banks do not have the funds to pay the amount protected, so they play on politicians' populism, all under the guise of sacred deposits."
ABL told The National it would be making no official comment on the plan.
But it has long argued that the state should bear the losses. The crisis, the banking lobby claims, did not arise from banks' risky investments but from a "systemic crisis" tied to state policies, which led to deficit accumulation, and the BDL, which drained its reserves to prop up the exchange rate.
“We never denied the state's responsibility and the need for it to contribute to the solution,” Mr Chami said. "But it can’t contribute to the extent that is being demanded given the dire fiscal situation.
“We keep saying that the contribution of the state could increase with time once we put all the necessary reforms in place."
Billions of dollars in 'illegitimate deposits'
Another point that has fuelled outrage within the banking sector is the proposed distinction between legitimate and illegitimate deposits.
“The current financial losses are indicative as it assumes that all deposits must be protected but it does not account for illegitimate deposits,” Lebanese lawyer Karim Daher said.
“This refers to funds acquired through illegal means, such as drug trafficking, terrorism financing, fraudulent bankruptcy, embezzlement, smuggling, extortion, insider trading … as defined by Lebanon's anti-money laundering regulations."
The plan sets the threshold for proving wealth authenticity at deposits of more than $500,000 and at $300,000 for public officials.
“Cases where deposits are not protected include situations of acting as nominees for wrongdoers and potentates, as well as money resulting from tax evasions or dormant accounts that are supposed to revert to the Lebanese state, partially or totally depending on the due diligence of the banks,” Mr Daher explained.
“Estimating is tough but we could recover billions.
“Not only would it narrow the deposit gap, but also expose Pandora's boxes of collusion among bankers, politicians and entrepreneurs."
The issue of legitimate deposits is “good from a moral standpoint” but dismissed as “very complex” in the leaked ABL document.
“According to actual international standards, there are not technical excuses not to track funds in Lebanese banks. The audit could technically be done even before a plan is adopted,” the BDL source said.
Mr Chaoul added: “For years, Lebanese have demanded accountability. Finally, we have a plan heading in that direction and the same so-called elite is now sabotaging it.”

Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on March 19-20/2024
Brian Mulroney lying in state in Ottawa as Canadians pay their respects to the former prime minister, wife and children
Corné van Hoepen·Contributor, Yahoo News Canada/March 19, 2024
Canadians are expected to come out and pay their last respects to Brian Mulroney, Canada's 18th prime minister, as he lies in state at the Sir John A. Macdonald Building in Ottawa March 19 and 20. Mulroney died in a Palm Beach, Fl., hospital on Feb. 29 at the age of 84. His death was met with a wave of reaction from politicians and members of the public. The former PM is survived by his wife, Mila Mulroney, and their four children. A funeral cortege carried Mulroney's body to the Sir John A. Macdonald Building on Tuesday morning, where Governor General Mary Simon and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau expressed their sympathies to the Mulroney family. Members of the public will be able to visit and pay their respects from 12:30 p.m. to 6 p.m. on March 19, and from 9 a.m. to 1 p.m. on March 20. Brian Mulroney's funeral ceremony is set to take place on Saturday, March 23, at 11 a.m., at Notre-Dame Basilica in Montreal. Prior to the ceremony, a funeral cortege — including a Royal Canadian Mounted Police mounted escort, a Canadian Armed Forces escort and guard of honour, the Royal Canadian Air Force Band, and RCMP pallbearers — will make its way to the Notre-Dame Basilica. Follow our live blog below for images, tributes and the latest details from the tribute to Mulroney.

Netanyahu says Rafah incursion inevitable despite US warnings
Miranda Nazzaro/The Hill/March 19, 2024
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday suggested the invasion of Rafah in Gaza will be unavoidable to eliminate Hamas forces, despite warnings from U.S. officials. Speaking to the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, Netayanahu said there is no “alternative” to the invasion, which he argues is necessary to wipe out Hamas. “There is no alternative to this. We cannot go around it; neither can we say ‘we will destroy 80 percent of Hamas and leave 20 percent,’ because from that 20 percent, they will reorganize and take over the Strip again and — of course — constitute a new threat to Israel,” Netanyahu said. “This requires the elimination of the remaining battalions in Rafah and of course, the 1.5 battalions in the camps in the center. We are determined to do this,” he said. Netanyahu told the committee about his Monday call with President Biden and said he “made it as clear as possible” that Israel is “determined to complete the elimination of these battalions in Rafah, and there is no way to do this without a ground incursion.” Biden and other U.S. officials have repeatedly expressed concerns over Israel’s plans for Rafah, a city in Gaza that shares a border with Egypt. Millions of people seeking refuge are being housed in the region after being evacuated from other parts of the enclave since the start of the war in early October. Netanyahu acknowledged what he called a “debate” with American leaders over the need to enter Rafah while maintaining he agrees with President Biden on wanting to provide humanitarian aid to civilians in Gaza and helping facilitate their exit from the territory. “We have been doing this since the beginning of the war,” Netanyahu noted. White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan on Monday told reporters that Netanyahu has agreed to send senior officials to Washington, D.C. this week to further discuss Israel’s military plans. Tensions between the Biden administration and Netanyahu have risen in recent weeks. On Thursday, Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) gave a speech on the Senate floor starkly criticizing Netanyahu’s handling of the war and arguing a new government was needed in Israel. More than 30,000 people in Gaza have been killed since Israel began an offensive last year in response to a brutal attack by Hamas that left around 1,200 dead in Israel. Earlier this month, Netanyahu said Israel will “not be getting off the gas,” in its attacks in Gaza while maintaining he will try to minimize civilian casualties. “Well, I’m telling you that we’re not getting off the gas. I’m telling you that we have to take care of Israel’s security in our future, and that requires eliminating the terrorist army. That’s a prerequisite for victory,” he told “Fox and Friends” earlier this month.

Gaza hunger warnings grow as hopes build for ceasefire
AFP/March 19, 2024
GAZA STRIP: Efforts to hammer out a temporary truce in Gaza intensified Tuesday after months of war that have devastated the Palestinian territory and pushed hundreds of thousands to the brink of famine. While a UN-backed assessment said 300,000 people in Gaza’s north would face famine by May without a surge of aid, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said everyone in Gaza was now in need of humanitarian aid. UN human rights chief Volker Turk blamed Israel for the hunger crisis, telling reporters in Geneva they were blocking aid and conducting the conflict in a way that “may amount to the use of starvation as a method of war.” Israeli troops on Tuesday pressed an assault on Gaza’s biggest hospital, which they allege is being used for military purposes. The military said more than 50 fighters had been killed. Hamas said the assault on Gaza City’s Al-Shifa Hospital was a war crime.
Israel’s spy chief David Barnea was in Qatar on Monday for a new round of talks with Egyptian and Qatari mediators, after they failed to secure a truce for the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, which began last week. Qatar’s foreign ministry spokesperson Majed Al-Ansari said he was “cautiously optimistic” about the latest negotiations but it was “too early to announce any successes.” The new push for a truce follows a Hamas proposal for a six-week ceasefire, an increase in aid and the initial release of about 42 hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners held by Israel. During the proposed truce, Israeli forces would withdraw from “all cities and populated areas” in Gaza, according to a Hamas official. Ansari said they were expecting a counter-proposal to be presented to Hamas and technical talks would continue. The bloodiest ever Gaza war broke out after Hamas’s unprecedented October 7 attack resulted in about 1,160 deaths in Israel, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally of Israeli official figures.
Militants also seized about 250 hostages, of whom Israel believes 130 remain in Gaza, including 33 who are presumed dead. Israel has responded with a relentless offensive against Hamas that Gaza’s health ministry says has killed at least 31,726 people, most of them women and children.
Blinken, who will travel to the Middle East this week to try to shore up support for the temporary truce and an increase in aid, highlighted that everyone in Gaza was now suffering “severe levels of acute food insecurity.” “That’s the first time an entire population has been so classified,” he said during a visit to the Philippines. On a related diplomatic track, US President Joe Biden has been attempting to put pressure on Israel to call off a threatened ground assault on the southern city of Rafah, where hundreds of thousands have sought refuge from fighting elsewhere in the territory. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has insisted troops will be sent into Rafah to root out Hamas in the area. The city is already under frequent bombardment by the Israeli military, with AFPTV footage showing residents picking through debris of buildings on Tuesday after another night of bombardment. Gaza resident Ibrahim Jarghun, at a funeral on Tuesday for those killed in the latest Rafah bombardment, told AFP the killings were shattering Ramadan customs like the traditional pre-dawn “suhoor” meal. “For us, our suhoor is blood,” he said. In Washington, White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan reported the death of senior Hamas official Marwan Issa. Israel had on March 11 said an air strike on an underground compound in central Gaza targeted Issa, whom it called the deputy head of Hamas’s armed wing. At the time it was unclear if he had been killed. In January, Israel said it had “completed the dismantling” of Hamas’s command structure in northern Gaza, but on Monday military spokesman Daniel Hagari said Palestinian militants and commanders have since returned to Al-Shifa “and turned it into a command center.”Witnesses reported air strikes and tanks near the hospital compound which is crowded with thousands of displaced civilians as well as the sick and wounded. The Israeli army identified one of the dead as Hamas internal security official Fayq Al-Mabhouh. A Gaza police source confirmed his death and said he was a brigadier general in the force. Israeli troops previously raided Al-Shifa in November, sparking an international outcry.

Italy opposed to Israeli ground operation in Rafah
REUTERS/March 19, 2024
ROME: Italy is opposed to a ground incursion by Israeli forces into the Gaza Strip’s southern city of Rafah, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said on Tuesday. “We will reiterate our opposition to military action on the ground by Israel in Rafah that could have even more catastrophic consequences for the civilians crowded in that area,” Meloni told lawmakers in Senate. She added that the opening of new land routes and a maritime corridor from Cyprus to Gaza, to ensure the safe delivery of humanitarian aid to the Palestinian enclave, was a priority.

Heavy fighting rages around Gaza’s biggest hospital as Israel raids it for a second day
AP/March 19, 2024
RAFAH, Gaza Strip: Explosions and shootings shook the Gaza Strip’s biggest hospital and surrounding neighborhoods as Israeli forces stormed through the facility for a second day Tuesday. The military said it had killed 50 Hamas militants in the hospital, but it could not be independently confirmed that the dead were combatants. The raid was a new blow to the Shifa medical complex, which had only partially resumed operations after a destructive Israeli raid in November. Thousands of Palestinian patients, medical staff and displaced people were trapped inside the sprawling complex Tuesday, as heavy fighting between troops and Hamas fighters raged in nearby districts. Details were scarce, with communications from inside the hospital nearly impossible. “It’s very hard right now. There’s heavy bombardment in the area of Shifa, and buildings are being hit. The sound of tank and artillery fire is continuous,” Emy Shaheen, who lives near the hospital, said in a voice message with repeated booms of shelling audible in the background. She said a large fire had been raging for hours near the hospital. The Israeli military said it raided Shifa early Monday because Hamas fighters had grouped in the hospital and were directing attacks from inside. The claim could not be confirmed, and the Hamas media office said all those killed in the assault were civilians. But the surge in fighting in Gaza City underscored Hamas’ continued presence in northern Gaza months after Israeli ground troops claimed they largely had control over the area. Israel launched its offensive in Gaza vowing to destroy Hamas after the group’s Oct. 7 attack on southern Israel. More than 31,800 Palestinians have been killed in the bombardment and offensive since. Much of northern Gaza has been leveled, and an international authority on hunger crises warned on Monday that 70 percent of people there were experiencing catastrophic hunger and that famine was imminent. The mayhem in the north came as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu repeated his determination to invade Gaza’s southernmost town, Rafah – one of the last major towns not targeted by a ground assault. A day earlier, in their first phone call in a month, US President Joe Biden urged Netanyahu not to carry out a Rafah operation, urging “an alternative approach” to more precisely target Hamas fighters there. The United States, Israel’s closest ally, has expressed concern over attacking Rafah because some 1.4 million people from across Gaza have crowded into the area. UN officials have warned of a massive death toll and the potential collapse of the humanitarian aid effort if troops moved into Rafah.
Netanyahu agreed to send a team of Israeli officials to Washington to discuss Rafah with Biden administration officials. But on Tuesday, he told a parliamentary committee that while he would listen to US proposals “out of respect” to Biden, “we are determined to complete the elimination of these (Hamas) battalions in Rafah, and there is no way to do this without a ground incursion.”Airstrikes in Rafah overnight destroyed an apartment and several houses, killing at least 15 people, including six women and children, hospital officials said.
NEW SHIFA SIEGE
The army last raided Shifa Hospital in November after claiming that Hamas maintained an elaborate command center within and beneath the facility. The military revealed a tunnel leading to some underground rooms, as well as weapons it said were found inside the hospital. However, the evidence fell short of the earlier claims, and critics accused the army of recklessly endangering the lives of civilians. The hospital, which is the heart of Gaza’s health system, was severely damaged in the assault and has only been able to resume limited operations since. Gaza officials say some 30,000 displaced people were taking refuge in the compound when the new Israeli assault began.The raid came before dawn Monday when tanks surrounded the facility and troops stormed into multiple buildings. The military on Tuesday said two of its soldiers had been killed in the operation. It said troops on Monday killed Faiq Mabhouh, a senior officer in Gaza’s police force, which is under the Hamas-led government but distinct from the militant group’s armed fighting wing. The military said he was hiding in Shifa with weapons, but the Gaza government said he was in charge of protecting aid distribution in the north.
The raid prompted heavy fighting for blocks around Shifa. Hamas’ military wing said it struck two Israeli armored vehicles and a group of soldiers with rockets in the vicinity of the hospital. Emergency services received multiple calls for help from people whose buildings had been bombed in the streets around Shifa, but rescue teams could not go to the scene because of the fighting, said Mahmoud Bassal, civil defense spokesperson. Kareem Al-Shawwa, a Palestinian living about a kilometer from the hospital, said the past 24 hours had been “terrifying,” with explosions and heavy exchanges of fire. He said Israeli troops had told residents to evacuate the area, but he and his family were too afraid of getting caught in the fighting to leave their home. “Either we’re forced to evacuate and they (Israeli soldiers) will detain men, or we’ll die,” he said, referring to the military’s mass roundups of men from among people evacuating.
Israel accuses Hamas of using hospitals and other civilian facilities to shield its fighters, and the Israeli military has raided several hospitals since the start of the war. The Gaza Health Ministry said Monday that at least 31,726 Palestinians have been killed in Israel’s offensive. The ministry doesn’t differentiate between civilians and combatants in its count, but it says women and children make up two-thirds of the dead. Palestinian militants killed some 1,200 people in Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack into southern Israel that triggered the war and took another 250 people hostage. Hamas is still believed to be holding about 100 captives, as well as the remains of 30 others, after most of the rest were freed during a ceasefire last year.

Incoming Palestinian PM lays out plans for reform but faces major obstacles
Associated Press/March 19, 2024
The incoming Palestinian prime minister said on Tuesday that he will appoint a technocratic government and establish an independent trust fund to oversee Gaza's reconstruction. In a mission statement acquired by The Associated Press, Mohammad Mustafa laid out wide-ranging plans for the kind of revitalized Palestinian Authority called for by the United States as part of its postwar vision for resolving the conflict. But the PA has no power in Gaza, from which Hamas drove its forces in 2007, and only limited authority in parts of the Israeli-occupied West Bank. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has ruled out any return of the PA to Gaza and his government is staunchly opposed to Palestinian statehood. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas designated Mustafa as prime minister last week. The U.S.-educated economist and longtime adviser to Abbas is an independent with no political base. In the mission statement, Mustafa said he would appoint a "non-partisan, technocratic government that can gain both the trust of our people and the support of the international community." He promised wide-ranging reforms of PA institutions and a "zero tolerance" policy toward corruption. He said he would seek to reunify the territories and create an "independent, competent and transparent agency for Gaza's recovery and reconstruction and an internationally managed trust fund to raise, manage and disburse the required funds."The vision statement made no mention of Hamas, which won a landslide victory the last time Palestinians held national elections, in 2006, and which polls indicate still has significant support. The 88-year-old Abbas, who is in overall control of the PA, has remained in power since his own mandate expired in 2009 and has refused to hold elections, citing Israeli restrictions. Polls consistently find that a large majority of Palestinians want him to resign. Mustafa said the PA aims to hold presidential and parliamentary elections, but he did not give a timetable and said it would depend on "realities on the ground" in Gaza, the West Bank and east Jerusalem, territories Israel captured in the 1967 Mideast war that the Palestinians want for their future state. In 2021, Abbas blamed Israeli restrictions in annexed east Jerusalem for his decision to indefinitely delay elections in which his secular Fatah party was expected to suffer major losses.

UN employees in West Bank endure Israeli harassment and obstruction, says report
ARAB NEWS/March 19, 2024
LONDON: UN staff working with Palestinians in the occupied West Bank have been subjected to a systematic campaign of obstruction and harassment by the Israeli military and authorities since Oct. 7, according to internal UN documents obtained by The Guardian. Compiled by the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East, the documents detail the challenges faced by the agency, which operates 96 schools and 43 health clinics serving 871,000 registered refugees in the region. The documents recorded 135 incidents impacting its clinics, schools and offices, including incursions, misuse of facilities, and military activities leading to the deployment of tear gas and bullets into UN properties. The papers said: “UNRWA staff have been verbally abused, subject to identity checks and searches, and required to lift their clothing to demonstrate the absence of weapons.”
More concerning are the reported violations of the UN’s privileges and immunities, including armed entry into UNRWA facilities by Israeli Security Forces and damage to UNRWA property during these operations, The Guardian reported. One report states that two UNRWA staff, traveling in a vehicle marked with the UN emblem, were stopped by soldiers at a temporary checkpoint in February as they tried to leave a Palestinian village near Bethlehem. The soldiers, who “forcefully” removed the keys and “forced the staff to get out … at gunpoint,” then searched the vehicle and mocked the staff, “making reference to the staff belonging to Hamas.”The staff were subsequently blindfolded, handcuffed, and beaten until a senior officer intervened. The documents describe how UNRWA’s West Bank health centers ran out of critical supplies after Israeli customs held up a delivery of medicine in Jordan. The 42-pallet cargo, which included antibiotics, antihistamines, painkillers, and treatment for diabetes, hypertension, and schizophrenia, arrived in Amman in January but was not cleared until Sunday, two hours after The Guardian contacted Israeli authorities. A spokesperson for Israeli customs denied that there had been any delay. The documents also reveal Israeli troops’ use of UNRWA facilities during military operations in the West Bank, including at least one incident in which several Palestinians were killed. Additionally, papers detail a military raid on Dec. 8 in which Israeli forces broke into an UNRWA health center in the Al-Faraa refugee camp and removed the UN flag. The documents said: “After ISF withdrew from the camp and when UNRWA staff were able to safely return to the health center, (spent) ammunition was found on the premises.” The Israeli raid killed six Palestinians, including a 14-year-old.
Al-Arroub refugee camp, south of Bethlehem, has been subjected to severe restrictions by Israeli authorities since Oct. 7, with new metal gates constructed to control access to a nearby highway, and earth or rocks dumped to block back roads. According to documents, security forces alerted the local community that the new gates would be closed for three days after stones were thrown at a watchtower. Despite attempts to coordinate with the Israeli authorities, UNRWA staff in and around the camp have had their travel restricted, their vehicles searched, and have been insulted or accused of supporting terrorism.
The documents added: “Sometimes access has been completely denied, regardless of coordination. Access procedures can sporadically change without prior notice, depending on the troops manning the checkpoint, and there is no predictability. These factors have made operational planning very difficult for UNRWA on Al-Arroub camp.”Juliette Touma, a spokesperson for UNRWA, said that the incidents brought to light were “part of a wider pattern of harassment that we are seeing against UNRWA in the West Bank and Jerusalem.”The documents cite the Convention on the Privileges and Immunities of the UN, adopted in 1946, under which UN agencies “are entitled to carry out activities in support of their mandate without hindrance.”One UNRWA document said that closures and restrictions of movement in the West Bank have created “deepening economic hardship, particularly for Palestinians who work in a different city or who rely on travel to Israel for work.”It added: “The longer access and movement restrictions are in place, the greater the potential for further instability in the West Bank.”A spokesperson for the Israel Defense Forces told The Guardian that the military had “no issues with UNRWA in the West Bank.”
They added: “We are not trying to harass them. There is nothing we intentionally do to disturb their important work. We are unable to verify these claims and we have not been presented with evidence (for them). We have a good relationship with UNRWA and other organizations in the West Bank.”

Saudi Arabia urges action on Gaza crisis at UNESCO meeting
ARAB NEWS/March 19, 2024
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia has urged UNESCO to help alleviate the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. The appeal was made by Fahd bin Mayouf Al-Ruwaili, the ambassador of Saudi Arabia to France and the Principality of Monaco and permanent representative of the Kingdom to UNESCO. Al-Ruwaili led the Kingdom’s delegation at the 219th session of UNESCO’s executive board meeting in Paris, which ends on March 27, the Saudi Press Agency reported. The Kingdom’s delegation took part in the opening session, with the Saudi National Commission for Education, Culture and Science, and other national bodies participating. In his speech, Al-Ruwaili highlighted Saudi Arabia’s ongoing efforts, in collaboration with its partners in the region and worldwide, to find a solution to the deteriorating humanitarian situation and the suffering of civilians in the Gaza Strip. He said Israel should be stopped from carrying out military operations in Gaza, which were in violation of international law. Meanwhile, Al-Ruwaili commended the ongoing cooperation between Saudi Arabia and UNESCO. He highlighted the exhibition held at the UNESCO headquarters, titled “The Earthen Testaments,” on Saudi Arabia’s Founding Day. The exhibition showcased the heritage of Diriyah, including the At-Turaif district listed on UNESCO’s World Heritage List since 2010. Al-Ruwaili also highlighted the projects by Saudi Arabia and UNESCO, valued at $10 million, to preserve cultural heritage through the Fund-in-Trust Agreement. The projects aim to achieve synergies across six culture conventions of UNESCO. He said the Kingdom took the initiative to position culture on the G20 agenda during its presidency in 2020, and thanked countries that continued to back this approach. Al-Ruwaili said three Saudi Arabia cities have joined the UNESCO Global Network of Learning Cities, bringing the total to five. In addition, the Kingdom joined the UNESCO Sustainable Development Goal 4 High-Level Steering Committee, as well as the subcommittee concerned with data and monitoring. Al-Ruwaili thanked the nations that supported the Kingdom’s bid to host Expo 2030 in Riyadh, and said Saudi Arabia aims to have an event that enhances international cooperation on all fronts.

EU council president: To have peace, Europe must prepare for war
REUTERS/March 19, 2024
Michel urged EU countries to ensure Ukraine received what it needed on the battlefield — including by spending EU money on military equipment, and using windfall profits from Russia’s immobilized assets to purchase arms for Ukraine
BRUSSELS: Europe must strengthen its defense capabilities and shift to a “war economy” mode in response to the threat posed by Russia, European Council President Charles Michel said on Monday. In an op-ed published in European newspapers and the Euractiv website, Michel — who will chair a meeting of EU leaders on Thursday to discuss support for Ukraine — said Europe needed to take responsibility for its own security and not rely heavily on the support of countries such as the US. “If we do not get the EU’s response right and do not give Ukraine enough support to stop Russia, we are next. We must therefore be defense-ready and shift to a ‘war economy’ mode,” Michel said. “If we want peace, we must prepare for war,” he said. Michel said while Europe had made strides since Moscow’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine — including by increasing military manufacturing capacity by 50 percent — far more was needed and, for decades, Europe had not invested enough in its security and defense. Michel urged EU countries to ensure Ukraine received what it needed on the battlefield — including by spending EU money on military equipment, and using windfall profits from Russia’s immobilized assets to purchase arms for Ukraine. He urged countries to facilitate investments in defense — including by considering changing the mandate of the EU lending arm, the European Investment Bank, to allow it to support Europe’s defense industry. EU countries approved an agreement on Monday to increase the EU’s support for Ukraine’s armed forces by 5 billion euros ($5.4 billion) — amid warnings that Kyiv’s forces need more resources to hold the line against a larger Russian army as a $60 billion US aid package for Ukraine is being held up by Congress.

Saudi Arabia urges action on Gaza crisis at UNESCO meeting
Updated 19 March 2024
ARAB NEWS/March 19, 202412:45
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia has urged UNESCO to help alleviate the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. The appeal was made by Fahd bin Mayouf Al-Ruwaili, the ambassador of Saudi Arabia to France and the Principality of Monaco and permanent representative of the Kingdom to UNESCO. Al-Ruwaili led the Kingdom’s delegation at the 219th session of UNESCO’s executive board meeting in Paris, which ends on March 27, the Saudi Press Agency reported. The Kingdom’s delegation took part in the opening session, with the Saudi National Commission for Education, Culture and Science, and other national bodies participating. In his speech, Al-Ruwaili highlighted Saudi Arabia’s ongoing efforts, in collaboration with its partners in the region and worldwide, to find a solution to the deteriorating humanitarian situation and the suffering of civilians in the Gaza Strip. He said Israel should be stopped from carrying out military operations in Gaza, which were in violation of international law. Meanwhile, Al-Ruwaili commended the ongoing cooperation between Saudi Arabia and UNESCO. He highlighted the exhibition held at the UNESCO headquarters, titled “The Earthen Testaments,” on Saudi Arabia’s Founding Day. The exhibition showcased the heritage of Diriyah, including the At-Turaif district listed on UNESCO’s World Heritage List since 2010.  Al-Ruwaili also highlighted the projects by Saudi Arabia and UNESCO, valued at $10 million, to preserve cultural heritage through the Fund-in-Trust Agreement. The projects aim to achieve synergies across six culture conventions of UNESCO. He said the Kingdom took the initiative to position culture on the G20 agenda during its presidency in 2020, and thanked countries that continued to back this approach. Al-Ruwaili said three Saudi Arabia cities have joined the UNESCO Global Network of Learning Cities, bringing the total to five. In addition, the Kingdom joined the UNESCO Sustainable Development Goal 4 High-Level Steering Committee, as well as the subcommittee concerned with data and monitoring. Al-Ruwaili thanked the nations that supported the Kingdom’s bid to host Expo 2030 in Riyadh, and said Saudi Arabia aims to have an event that enhances international cooperation on all fronts.

German police detain 2 Afghans for plotting an attack near Swedish parliament over Qur’an burnings
AP/March 19, 2024
BERLIN: German police detained on Tuesday two Afghan citizens accused of planning to attack police near the Swedish parliament in response to the burning of copies of the Qur’an, the Muslim holy book, federal prosecutors said.
The suspects, identified only as Afghan citizens Ibrahim M.G. and Ramin N., were detained in the eastern city of Gera, the federal prosecutor’s office said in a statement. The men were only identified by their first names and initial, according to German privacy laws. The prosecutors said the Daesh group’s affiliate in Afghanistan tasked the suspects in mid-2023 with carrying out an attack in Europe in response to Qur’an burnings in Sweden and other countries. The pair made preparations for an attack on police and other people near the parliament in the Swedish capital, Stockholm, “in close coordination” with Daesh members, including doing online research of the location and tried unsuccessfully to procure weapons, the statement said. The attack never materialized. Anti-Islam activists have carried out a string of public desecrations of the Qur’an in Sweden, sparking outrage among Muslims around the world and threats from Islamic extremists. In October, a gunman killed two Swedish soccer fans before a match in Brussels. Swedish authorities had raised the terror alert to its second-highest level in August. They were concerned of a similar escalation as the fury Denmark faced from Muslim countries in 2006, following the publication of newspaper caricatures of the Prophet Muhammad. Danish consulates and embassies were burned and the cartoonists faced death threats from radical Islamists. Danish officials’ attempts to explain how such caricatures were protected under freedom of speech were widely dismissed in the Muslim world. Prosecutors said Ibrahim M. G. joined the Daesh affiliate in August 2023. Together with Ramin N., he had raised 2,000 euros ($2,170 ) in donations for the Daesh group to help a member jailed in northern Syria. The Afghans are suspected of crimes including providing support to a terrorist organization, conspiracy to commit a crime, and infringements against trade laws.

UN nuclear watchdog chief visits Syria to restart talks
DAMASCUS (Reuters)/March 19, 2024
U.N. nuclear watchdog chief Rafael Grossi said he visited Damascus on Tuesday to restart talks focused on fostering confidence in the peaceful use of atomic energy by Syria. Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, met with President Bashar al-Assad, who had extended the invitation, and Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad. "We're ready to start working on reigniting high-level dialogue between the IAEA and Syria, focusing on building confidence in the peaceful use of nuclear energy in Syria," Grossi wrote in a post on X. Syria's state news agency also reported Grossi's visit. IAEA inspectors last visited Syria in 2011, the year its civil war began after the government's violent crackdown on street protests against Assad's rule. They were seeking to revive a stalled IAEA investigation into activity at a site in Syria's eastern desert that U.S. intelligence had deemed to be a nascent, North Korean-designed reactor intended to produce plutonium for atomic weaponry, before Israel bombed it to rubble in 2007. The Vienna-based IAEA also sought information about other sites that may have been linked to the Deir al-Zor facility. Syrian authorities have said it was a non-nuclear military site, but the IAEA concluded in 2011 that it was "very likely" to have been a reactor that should have been declared to nuclear non-proliferation inspectors.

Turkish soldier killed in clash in Iraq, defence ministry says
ANKARA (Reuters)March 19, 2024
A Turkish soldier was killed and four others were wounded in a clash with militants from the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) in northern Iraq, Turkey's defence ministry said on Tuesday. Six PKK members were also killed in the clashes that took place in a region where the Turkish Armed Forces are conducting an operation dubbed "Claw-Lock" against militant targets, the ministry said.In its statement, the defence ministry used the term "neutralised," commonly used to mean "killed." In a separate statement later on Tuesday, the ministry said Turkish forces had carried out air strikes in the Metina, Zap, Hakurk, Gara and Qandil regions of northern Iraq, adding that 27 targets, including caves, shelters and bunkers it said were used by PKK militants, had been destroyed in the strikes. The PKK, designated a terrorist group by Turkey, the United States and the European Union, took up arms against the Turkish state in 1984. More than 40,000 people have been killed in the insurgency. Senior Turkish and Iraqi officials held high-level talks in Baghdad last week to discuss security issues including potential measures against the PKK, after Turkey warned of new military operations in the region.Turkey has conducted years of cross-border military operations against militants that have left roughly half the Syrian territory bordering Turkey and all of Iraqi territory bordering Turkey controlled or overseen by Turkey's military.

Latest English LCCC  analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on March 19-20/2024
The Gaza War: The Real Problem...With Friends Like Chuck Schumer, Who Needs Enemies?
Bassam Tawil/Gatestone Institute/March 19, 2024
Rather than taking tangible steps towards peace, [Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud] Abbas has done nothing but bypass and evade bilateral negotiations with Israel, while taking extremely tangible steps toward terrorism – from rewarding terrorists, or the families of those who murder Jews, with "$345-$1200" a month for life, to repeating that terrorist murderers are "heroes" -- all the while admitting that Palestinians are not the indigenous people there.
As for Schumer's "two-state solution," 64% of Palestinians said they are opposed to the idea. Those polled would like a one-state solution: a Palestinian state with no "Israel" anywhere in sight. More than 60% also expressed support for an "armed struggle" against Israel.
"[T]he only thing we should be focused on is changing the regime in Gaza, bringing down the terrorist regime of Hamas, and not the duly elected government of Israel." — Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Fox News, March 17, 2024,
The reason [the Palestinians] just keep "saying no" is because they do not want a Palestinian State next to Israel, they want a Palestinian State instead of Israel.
Schumer, by signaling to Hamas and other terrorists that the Americans are on their side against Netanyahu and the Israeli government, has painstakingly emboldened them.
Many Arabs understand -- unlike Schumer and many in the Biden administration -- that the real problem is the Iranian regime and its terror proxies.
US Senator Chuck Schumer, by signaling to Hamas and other terrorists that the Americans are on their side against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the Israeli government, has painstakingly emboldened them. Pictured: Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer departs from the Senate Chambers in the U.S. Capitol Building on March 14, 2024 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)
In a speech on March 14, 2024, US Senate Democratic Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said:
"The only real and sustainable solution to this decades-old [Arab-Israeli] conflict is a negotiated two-state solution — a demilitarized Palestinian state living side-by-side with Israel in equal measures of peace, security, prosperity, dignity and mutual recognition."
Schumer and his friends in the Biden administration who continue to talk about a two-state solution are either naïve or ignorant of the sentiments among the Palestinians, most of whom support the Iran-backed Hamas terror group, which does not recognize Israel's right to exit and does seek to replace it with an Islamic state. One does not have to be an expert on the Middle East to know that a Palestinian state would be used by Iran and its terror proxies as yet another launching pad to destroy not only Israel, but also the oil-rich Gulf states, and to murder Christians, Jews, Americans and anyone else they might consider "unworthy." This is exactly what happened on October 7, 2023, when thousands of Hamas terrorists in the Gaza Strip invaded Israel and murdered 1,200 Israelis – including Muslims. Until that day, the Gaza Strip was an independent state controlled by Hamas and other terror groups, such as Palestinian Islamic Jihad. There were no Israelis -- civilians or soldiers -- in the Gaza Strip in October: Israel had totally pulled out of the entire coastal enclave in 2005.
Those who are calling for establishing a Palestinian state at Israel's doorstep a few months after Hamas's October 7 carnage are telling the terrorists that they can count on the US administration to reward them for the most horrific terrorist attack in memory, the proportional equivalent, in terms of population, of 40,000 American deaths, according to US Army General (ret.) David Petraeus.
Schumer's assertion that the only "real" solution is a "negotiated two-state solution" disregards the fact that Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas has refused to resume peace negotiations with Israel on numerous occasions for the past 15 years. Rather than taking tangible steps towards peace, Abbas has done nothing but bypass and evade bilateral negotiations with Israel, while taking extremely tangible steps for terrorism -- from rewarding terrorists, or the families of those who murder Jews, with "$345-$1200" a month for life, to repeating that terrorist murderers are "heroes" -- all the while admitting that Palestinians are not the indigenous people there.
In 2008, Abbas wasted a spectacular opportunity for peace with Israel. Then Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert made an offer for peace so generous that then US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice called it "amazing" and warned that "[former Israeli Prime Minister] Yitzhak Rabin had been killed for offering far less.""Olmert's offer called for Israeli withdrawal from approximately 94% of the West Bank, the creation of a passage from the West Bank to Gaza, and the equal 'swapping' of land so that Israel could annex its major [West Bank] settlement blocs. Olmert even proposed to divide Jerusalem and absorb a few thousand Palestinian refugees."
Abbas later claimed that he rejected Olmert's plan because the Israeli prime minister "didn't give me a map."
In 2009, Abbas again refused to negotiate, this time with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and rejected the Israeli leader's offer to resume peace talks immediately, without preconditions.
In 2010, Abbas made clear that he refused even to sit in the same room with the Israelis, and the Obama administration had to leverage all its political power just to pressure the Palestinians into "proximity talks" with US special envoy George Mitchell. During the same year, Abbas refused to sit with Israeli leaders even after Israel announced a 10-month moratorium on settlement construction in the West Bank.
In 2011 and 2012, Abbas refused to discuss tangible peace initiatives with Israel through talks facilitated by Jordan's King Abdullah and the "Middle East Quartet" (Russia, the EU, the US and the UN). Instead of returning to the negotiating table with Israel, the Palestinian leader sought to achieve unity with Hamas. He also tried to bypass negotiations completely by officially requesting the United Nations to recognize the independence of a unilaterally-declared Palestinian state.
Schumer falsely assumes that if Abbas were to step down, his successors would rush to make peace with Israel:
"For there to be any hope of peace in the future, Abbas must step down and be replaced by a new generation of Palestinian leaders who will work towards attaining peace with a Jewish State."
Except, who said that Abbas will be replaced by moderate and pragmatic leaders?
A public opinion poll from two months after the October 7 massacre showed that Palestinian support for Hamas actually increased in both the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Support for Abbas and his Fatah faction, however, plummeted, according to the poll. When Palestinians were asked about their own preferences for the party that should be in control in the Gaza Strip after the war, 60% selected Hamas. If new Palestinian Authority presidential elections were held today, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh would receive 78% of the vote, as opposed to 16% for Abbas.
As for Schumer's "two-state solution," 64% of Palestinians said they are opposed to the idea. Those polled would like a one-state solution: a Palestinian state with no "Israel" anywhere in sight. More than 60% also expressed support for an "armed struggle" against Israel.
Other polls produced similar results, indicating a sharp rise in Hamas's popularity. It is unhinged to expect the emergence of moderate leaders at a time when a majority of Palestinians support Hamas and its atrocities against Jews.
It is no wonder that Abbas has repeatedly avoided holding elections. Unlike Schumer, Palestinian Authority leaders read the polls and are aware of the widespread support for Hamas and terrorism among the Palestinians.
Schumer's attack on the Israeli Prime Minister and his call for holding new elections in Israel is a sumptuous gift to Hamas, as the Israeli army fights to remove the terror group from power and secure the release of more than 130 Israeli hostages still held in the Gaza Strip. Hamas leaders are no doubt delighted to hear US officials such as Schumer attack the Israeli prime minister while Israel is at war with the terror group.
By stating that Netanyahu "has lost his way" and is an obstacle to peace, Schumer is putting the Israeli leader, who was democratically elected in six elections, on an equal footing with Abbas and Hamas and ignoring that the Palestinians have said no to peace and a two-state solution long before Netanyahu came to power. As Netanyahu noted:
"[T]he only thing we should be focused on is changing the regime in Gaza, bringing down the terrorist regime of Hamas, and not the duly elected government of Israel."
Can Schumer please tell us when was the last time the Palestinians held presidential or parliamentary elections? Can he show us the Palestinian parliament is, and why hasn't it been functioning since 2007? The last Palestinian presidential election was held in 2005. A year later, when parliamentary elections were held, Hamas won the vote by a landslide. Since Hamas's terrorist takeover of the Gaza Strip, at times by "throwing their rivals off 15-storey buildings," the parliament has been inoperative. In 2018, Abbas went as far as dissolving the parliament and has since been ruling by "presidential decrees."
Schumer needs to be reminded that peace with the Palestinians did not work even when the Labour Party's Yitzhak Rabin, Shimon Peres and Ehud Barak were prime minister. The reason was that every time an Israeli leader would offer peace, then PLO leader and Palestinian Authority President leader Yasser Arafat and his successor, Abbas, did not negotiate, they "just kept saying no." The reason they just keep "saying no" is because they do not want a Palestinian State next to Israel, they want a Palestinian State instead of Israel.
Schumer, by signaling to Hamas and other terrorists that the Americans are on their side against Netanyahu and the Israeli government, has painstakingly emboldened them.
Schumer tries to assure us by saying that a Palestinian state would be "demilitarized." The Oct. 7 massacre, however, illustrated that the Palestinians do not need fighter jets and tanks to invade Israel. The Palestinians can invade Israel with bulldozers, trucks, hang-gliders and motorcycles, and murder Israelis with rifles, grenades, pistols and knives.
Many Arabs understand -- unlike Schumer and many in the Biden administration -- that the real problem is the Iranian regime and its terror proxies. US officials might take note of what Syrian journalist Ghassan Ibrahim, founder of Global Arab Network, recently wrote:
"If all the Arab countries had signed peace with Israel in the time of [slain Egyptian President Anwar] Sadat, today we would be busy with economic and technological competition instead of a gang like Hamas or Hezbollah controlling the fate of the region."
*Bassam Tawil is a Muslim Arab based in the Middle East.
© 2024 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Dilemmas of War, Dilemmas of Peace
Charles Elias Chartouni/March 19/2024
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/127997/127997/
The unfolding international political dynamics are intertwined and unlikely to be construed unless they correlate with internal political dynamics and ideological subtexts. This primary observation seems compatible with various political evolutions throughout the large geopolitical spectrum and its variations. While reviewing the conflict-ridden political landscapes, we inescapably notice the inter-relatedness of political events and the nexuses between the various political configurations and variables. The internal or external permutations are likely to change conflict dynamics in whichever direction: the electoral contest in Iran undermines the legitimacy of the Islamic dictatorship in Tehran and questions its international policy and subversive interventionism in the Middle East; the hardening political repression in Russia accounts for the smoldering conflict in Ukraine and the demise of international political mediations; the extremely polarized political scenery in the US is hampering the transatlantic alliance crucial role in correcting power asymmetries between Russia and Ukraine and containing its reverberations on European security. Otherwise, it affects the balancing role of the US administration, while sorting out the intricacies of the late Israeli-Palestinian conflict and preparing the ground for an overall political settlement that ends the unrestrained cycles of violence. The strident political controversies around unregulated migration and their impact on societal equilibriums in Western democracies are being instrumentalized by radical agendas to alter foreign policies and their incidence, namely, on the conflicts in Ukraine and the Israeli-Palestinian interfaces.
The War in Ukraine has muted into the epitome of the new Cold War era and elicits the urgency to delineate the geopolitical plot lines and solidify their markers, at a time when Russia and its Chinese and Iranian partners are attempting to alter them. The Russian asymptotic rise to violence pairs with the awaited outcomes of the upcoming presidential election in the US and the imponderables of Donald Trump’s re-election. Whereas the two candidates, Joe Biden and Donald Trump, are questioning their respective foreign policy credentials insofar as the management of the unfolding conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. Whereas the protagonists of conflict are trying to influence the inner courses of US policy directly and obliquely through their ethnic constituents and clashing political agendas. Both Republicans and Democrats are challenged in their ability to steer a balanced course that keeps US security interests above the fray of mundane politics and populist demagoguery.
The Gaza war and its strategic narrative are quite challenging insofar as its outcomes and time framework. The strategic and humanitarian imbroglios are quite interwoven and behoove major adjustments in terms of disentangling issues and scaling priorities. The tragic impasses intentionally thrust by Hamas have made the winnowing of priorities very hard, narrowed the choices between extremes, and enhanced the magnitude of war tragedies and their appalling humanitarian and ecological disasters. Israel has to win the war to put an end to the existential threats featured on the 7th of October 2023, but the humanitarian costs are quite preoccupying. Hamas seems to thrive on its reckless and criminal undertaking and to dismiss its calamitous results. The truce scenarios matched with the swap of prisoners might offer an interlude, but won’t be a game changer unless Hamas accepts defeat, and allows diplomacy to mediate and discuss the future of Gaza between a new governmental coalition in Israel and an overhauled Palestinian authority. Any default in this regard is likely to drag out the conflict in time and broaden the spectrum of devastations. The reshuffling of the governmental makeup in both Israel and the Palestinian scenery is mandatory to end the hostilities in Gaza and open up the horizon for future negotiations between them.
The symmetric conflicts on the Lebanese and Syrian interfaces with Israel are wired into the dynamics of proxy conflicts propelled by the Iranian politics of subversion. Israelis, notwithstanding their political differences, do not seem inclined to condone the Iranian strategic thrust and flaunted genocidal statements. The internationalization of security issues in South Lebanon, the creation of safety zones, the enforcement of international resolutions, the disarmament of Hezbollah and the Palestinian camps and the takeover of the Lebanese army are mandatory requisites if Lebanon is to recover its sovereignty and honor its commitments in the eventual scenario of stabilization and prospective pacification. The mere suggestion of truce scripts is irrelevant if it does not dovetail with a truly strategic and political purview devised jointly by the conflict parties and their arbitraging partners.

Saving Sinwar...An Israeli who spent ‘hundreds of hours’ with his country’s most deadly foe assesses his next move
Judith Miller/The Magazine/March 19/2024
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/128009/128009/
The Palestinian in the clinic at one of Israel’s highest security prisons near Beersheba had a persistent pain in the back of his neck. He trembled and had trouble walking. Yuval Bitton, then a 28-year-old dentist just a year out of medical school, suspected that his patient might be suffering from a C.V.A., an ischemic cerebrovascular accident, resulting from a life-threatening brain tumor. “He needs to be hospitalized, immediately,” Bitton advised the prison doctors.
Dr. Bitton’s diagnosis was quickly confirmed at the Soroka Medical Center in Beersheba. The surgery took hours. The prisoner survived. When he returned to the prison, he thanked Bitton and the rest of the prison medical staff for having saved his life—in excellent Hebrew.
The year was 2004. The patient was Yahya Sinwar, the Palestinian who in 2017 would become the leader of Hamas in Gaza and subsequently the mastermind of the Oct. 7 attack in southern Israel in which 1,200 mostly Israeli civilians died and 240 were taken hostage.
Bitton described the fateful incident and what he said were “hundreds of hours” of conversations with Sinwar in prison in the ensuing years when I met him last week in a peaceful garden in a Tel Aviv suburb, a world away from the Israeli prisons in which the Hamas leader was held for 22 years prior to his release in 2011. “Even then, he looked and carried himself like a leader,” Bitton recalled. “He was thin, tough, and very extreme.” There was tension in jail between the militant Islamists of Gaza and those from the West Bank, which was ruled by the Palestinian Authority initially headed by Yasser Arafat and then by his successor, Mahmoud Abbas. Sinwar viewed even the most militant members of the Palestinian Authority as soft and undisciplined. Above all, they were traitors to Islam for having agreed to share with the Jews holy land that God had given exclusively to Muslims.
Sinwar and his lieutenants, Tawfik Abu Naim and Rawhi Mushtaha, now all senior Hamas figures, were “like an army” inside the prison, Bitton recalled. An Islamic band of brothers, they enforced rules, gave orders, and held secret elections for Hamas’ “majlis,” its ruling council inside the prison. They communicated with one another and with fellow militants outside the jail through messages and tiny plastic cellphones smuggled into the jail by visitors—lawyers, wives, babies. The contraband was concealed in diapers, in women’s bras, and in their vaginas.
“In those days, we didn’t routinely or thoroughly search women or babies or even surveil conversations between lawyers and their clients,” Bitton said, recalling these early examples of suicidal democracy. “We were so naive.”
Sinwar studied his enemy assiduously. He read Israeli newspapers, took classes in Jewish history through the prison’s “open university,” and spoke to Bitton about Hamas’ goals—the expulsion of all Jews from Palestine, the duty to implement God’s laws as given to Muhammad on all sacred Muslim soil. Numerous efforts to recruit him in prison failed. “The struggle continued inside the prison,” Bitton said. Sinwar was not married then, and he had few visitors. “Hamas and the struggle were his life.”
Sinwar’s life has been shaped by the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. Born in 1962 in the Khan Younis refugee camp in Egyptian-ruled Gaza, he got his bachelor’s degree in Arabic studies from the Islamic University of Gaza, which was founded in 1978 by two men who a decade later would create Hamas. He grew close to one of them—Sheikh Ahmed Yassin, Hamas’ co-founder and spiritual guide—and rose quickly in the Hamas.
Having initially been arrested in 1982 for what Israel termed subversive activities, he was rearrested in 1985. Released again, he and Mushtaha founded Munazzamat al Jihad w’al-Dawa (MAJD), an organization responsible for rooting out Palestinian collaborators with Israel and other rival factions. Sinwar excelled at his job, earning himself the nickname “Butcher of Khan Yunis.” In 1988 he was arrested again for planning the abduction and killing of two Israeli soldiers and the murder of four Palestinians he considered collaborators. According to Israeli press accounts, he had acknowledged during his interrogation having strangled two of the Palestinians, inadvertently killing another during his interrogation, and shooting the fourth who had tried to escape. He was said to have led investigators to the orchard where the bodies were buried. In 1989, Israel sentenced him to four life sentences.
Under normal circumstances, a man with such a violent resume would not have been released. But after Israeli Staff Sergeant (then-Corporal) Gilad Shalit was kidnapped in 2006, negotiations with Hamas inside and outside of prisons began. Bitton himself was involved in the talks with Sinwar and other Hamas negotiators. Brokered by German and Egyptian mediators and signed in Cairo in 2011, the deal agreed to Shalit’s return in exchange for the phased release of 1,027 Israeli-held prisoners, including some 315 Palestinians who were serving life sentences for having been convicted of the worst crimes. Among them were Sinwar and his two lieutenants.
Hamas’ leaders considered Israel’s willingness to release over 1,000 Palestinians for a single Israeli soldier a victory. Most of the prisoners were ecstatic about their release. But Sinwar denounced the trade. “He was furious, even though he was among those scheduled to be released,” Bitton recalled. He told me that releasing Shalit for a thousand Palestinian prisoners was “not enough.” All of the Palestinians in Israeli jails had to be released. He sent messages to Hamas’ leaders in exile urging them to reject the deal. But he was overruled by Saleh al-Arouri, a senior Hamas leader and the founding commander of its military wing, the Izz ad-Din al-Qassem Brigades (Israel assassinated al-Arouri in Beirut on Jan. 2, 2024).
“Sinwar didn’t care how many Palestinians would die for their cause,” Bitton recalled. For Sinwar, “there was no flexibility, no room for compromise.”
While some Hamas leaders were political, Sinwar thought only about military operations and war. “He was always crystal clear: The struggle against the Jewish state must continue, no matter what he had to do.” If it meant agreeing to close the tunnels between Egypt and Gaza and arresting jihadists suspected by Cairo to enhance security coordination with Egypt, a main supply route to Gaza, that was fine. If it meant trying to reconcile with the Palestinian Authority, which Hamas had violently ousted from Gaza in 2007, by temporarily renouncing violence to pursue “peaceful, popular resistance” to Israeli occupation, which he also did in 2018, so be it. If it meant appearing on Israeli TV to call for a truce with Hamas, in Hebrew, he volunteered. His objective never wavered, though: Do whatever must be done to fight another day and free all Palestinians from jail. Sinwar believed that Israel’s prisons were “a grave for us. A mill to grind our will, determination, and bodies,” he said after his own release.
Having spent hours listening to Sinwar, Bitton had vigorously opposed his release, he disclosed. “I knew he was trouble, and that he would create even more trouble for us outside,” he told me. But he, too, was overruled by higher authorities—in this case, the Shabak, Israel’s domestic intelligence service, then headed by Yuval Diskin. “I wasn’t the head of Shabak,” he said somewhat ruefully. “I was just the head of intelligence in a prison.
Days after his release, Sinwar publicly blasted the deal he had opposed in jail. He also urged Palestinians to kidnap more soldiers to secure the release of his Islamic brothers in jail. “He told me that he had an Islamic duty to ensure that no Islamic fighter would be left behind,” Bitton recalls.
Bitton ultimately paid a personal price for the decision to let Sinwar go free. His 38-year-old nephew Tamir was wounded, kidnapped, and killed by the Hamas terrorists Sinwar sent to southern Gaza on Oct. 7. “I knew when I saw the photo of Tamir that he wouldn’t make it,” he said. “There was too much blood.”Three weeks after Oct. 7, Sinwar once again proposed that all Palestinians in Israeli jails be released in exchange for the hostages Hamas had kidnapped during its killing spree and barbaric assault. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s rejection was fast and furious. Sinwar, Netanyahu said, was a “dead man walking,” vowing to kill Israel’s No. 1 target in its massive offensive. Israel offered a bounty of $400,000 for information about his location. But Sinwar has so far escaped Israel’s wrath.
Last November, the Israeli Defense Forces claimed to have trapped the Hamas commander in an underground bunker after surrounding Gaza City. He escaped. Later, Israeli officials claimed he was in a tunnel in Khan Yunis. Social media carried photos at the time of a shadowy figure fleeing into a tunnel with his children and the wife he had married after his release from jail. Again, he escaped.
The Israelis now say he is moving constantly within the tunnel network in Rafah, Gaza’s southernmost city where 1.2 million Palestinians have fled for safety. His presence there, and Israel’s assertion that four Hamas battalions remain there ready to fight, are part of the justification Israel has offered for its planned land offensive in Rafah, Gaza’s main supply area on the Egyptian border. Israel’s military claims to have destroyed or damaged 19 of Hamas’ 24 battalions, each consisting of about 1,000 soldiers.
The Wall Street Journal reported on Feb. 29 that Sinwar had sent a message to exiled leaders claiming that Hamas was winning the war in Gaza and that international pressure would soon force Israel to stop the fighting because of the high civilian death toll, which according to unverifiable Hamas and United Nations estimates, now stands at over 31,000 Palestinians. Israel estimates that it has killed approximately 13,000 Hamas fighters.
Safe in Qatar and Turkey, Hamas’ leadership outside Gaza took a different view: They concluded that Israel was crushing the group and seizing ever more ground, despite increasing pressure from the West for Israel to agree to a cease-fire. Yet according to the Journal, Sinwar assured his confederates that despite Israel’s tactical successes, Hamas’ four remaining battalions in Rafah were fully prepared to withstand a likely ground assault, and that Israel would ultimately yield to Hamas’ demands.
According to the Journal, Egyptian intelligence officials who have received Sinwar’s messages think he has “lost touch with reality.” Yet the success of Sinwar’s bloody Oct. 7 offensive and his presence on (or under) the ground in Gaza gives him credibility and authority that Hamas’ external leadership lacks. Practically speaking, the fighting will end when Sinwar says it does, so his assessment of Hamas’ strategic position and of Israeli psychology is the one that matters.
Whether Sinwar has become demented or merely diabolical, Bitton said, the Hamas leader’s hard-line stance does not surprise him. In his desire to rid Palestine of Jews for good, Sinwar has been nothing if not consistent.
**Judith Miller, Tablet Magazine’s theater critic, is a former New York Times Cairo bureau chief and investigative reporter. She is also the author of the memoir The Story: A Reporter’s Journey.

Fascism and regional functions on the margins of the tragedy in Gaza
Eyad Abu Shakra/Asharq Al-Awsat/March 19/2024.
Hassan Nasrallah’s talk about not wanting to “drag Iran into a war with Israel and the United States” and his insistence that Hezbollah would wage this battle alone is highly indicative. I would not be surprised to see people commenting that they wished he cared as much for what remains of Lebanon’s interests as he does for the interests of Iran.
Quoting an “Iranian source,” Reuters on Friday reported that the Hezbollah secretary-general made these remarks to Quds Force Commander Esmail Ghaani during their meeting in Beirut in February. Nasrallah reportedly added: “This is our battle.” Last month’s meeting was reportedly the third between the two men since the events of Oct. 7, all of which have dealt with the risks of a broad Israeli attack on Hezbollah and, by extension, Iran’s foothold in Lebanon and the region.
The atmosphere on the Lebanese-Israeli border is doubtlessly unsettling, especially amid the war of statements and bellicose speeches being made by the two sides.
More than that, the role that Iran has assigned to the Houthis in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden has entered a new phase, considering the news of American-Iranian meetings in Muscat that The New York Times reported last week. The newspaper claimed that the two sides discussed security in the Red Sea and attacks by Iranian proxies on American bases in both Iraq and Syria.
The New York Times reported that the “indirect” Muscat talks — which were not announced at the time — had been requested by Tehran and were held on Jan. 10. Omani officials conveyed messages between the Iranian and American delegations, who were sitting in separate rooms. The Iranian delegation was headed by Deputy Foreign Minister for Political Affairs Ali Bagheri Kani, while the American delegation was led by National Security Council Coordinator for the Middle East and North Africa Brett McGurk.
Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu continues to ramp up his political-military rhetoric, stressing the “inevitability” of an assault on Rafah, which is the final refuge of the people of Gaza amid Israel’s war of displacement that has claimed more than 30,000 lives. The West’s rejection of the offensive does not seem to reflect any real determination to prevent it or the humanitarian disaster that several bodies have warned would ensue from it.
Even the personal criticisms of President Joe Biden and Democratic Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (the highest-ranking Jewish official in Washington), who called for Netanyahu’s departure after snap elections, have not come with serious threats. Worse, Sen. Mitch McConnell, the Republican leader in the Senate, outbid Schumer in his defense of Israel, attacking Biden and criticizing his Democratic colleague.
On a related note, amid the ambiguity of the US administration’s stance on the scenario of the coming hours and days in the Gaza Strip, some have presented a different reading of Washington’s decision to set up aid facilities on the central coast of the Gaza Strip. They see it as a substitute for the vital Rafah and Kerem Shalom crossings and, thus, as evidence that the US is unwilling or unable to prevent the attack on Rafah.
In this regard, there are some undeniable facts that should not be downplayed, including the following.
The US has not changed its stance on confining the fighting and violence to the Gaza Strip. It has been reiterating this position since Israel began its operations in response to the Oct. 7 attack. While no US administration would want to get involved in wars or long-term problems during an election year, plunging a region as sensitive as the Middle East into political security quicksand would be a disastrous move for the future.
Washington’s position on Tehran adds to the confusion. Whether in Lebanon, Iraq or Syria, it does not seem that the US will take a decisive or stern position on the Iranian leadership. This is despite the fact that Washington is well aware that Tehran calls the shots for all the regional players in its orbit. Indeed, the US administration is going in the opposite direction, diplomatically engaging Iran in Muscat and releasing billions of dollars in assets to the Iranian leadership, knowing full well where those funds will go and how they will be spent.
The situation in the region can still be contained for now. However, the Biden administration must — at the very least — understand that this could change. Rather, it will inevitably change for the worse if Donald Trump returns to the White House and Netanyahu maintains his ability to extort through violence, occupation and displacement.
Whether in Lebanon, Iraq or Syria, it does not seem that the US will take a decisive or stern position on the Iranian leadership.
As we know, many crucial elections will be held across the globe this year. It is obvious that racist, populist and neo-fascist movements are seeking major victories. Even the oldest and most stable democracies that have maintained the appearance of gravitas, claiming moderation and respect for human rights, are rapidly changing for the worse. There are indications from across the globe — and this is expected to reflect negatively on the Middle East — that the future does not bode well at all for religious, ethnic and cultural coexistence.
Thus, problems that can be resolved or contained today could become insurmountable if action is not taken in the next few months.
To put it plainly, the Arab world will not stabilize so long as Israel is beholden to the whims of its most extreme right-wing fascists and racists and their dictates, and while Iran continues to exploit its proxies to make deals with the West — both openly and in secret.

US’ Gaza aid maritime effort is woefully insufficient
Kerry Boyd/Arab News/March 19/2024
US military ships are on their way to Gaza in an effort to establish a maritime route for delivering aid. The starving and suffering Palestinians of Gaza need any aid that can be delivered, but the US effort is complicated, expensive and potentially ineffective.
On March 7, President Joe Biden announced plans for a military “emergency mission to establish a temporary pier in the Mediterranean on the Gaza coast that can receive large ships carrying food, water, medicine and temporary shelters.” He promised the US public, which is wary of engaging in any more wars in the Middle East, that no American soldiers would actually be “on the ground” in Gaza.In technical terms, the project is expensive and complex but also impressive and feasible. About 1,000 soldiers will participate in the effort. The military will construct a floating dock where large ships can offload aid. The US will also build a floating pier that it will attach to the Gazan coast. Smaller US military vessels will then move aid packages from the dock to the pier, where trucks will pick up the aid and deliver it to land. Constructing the dock and pier and setting up the system could take up to 60 days.
However, throughout the history of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, technical feasibility is seldom the problem. Rather, politics determine outcomes and the pier plan will be no exception.
Slow, strict and convoluted Israeli inspections of aid are a major factor that has squeezed the supply via land routes. Israeli authorities do not provide clear and complete lists of prohibited items and often reject aid in ways that appear arbitrary to many aid agencies. Under the US plan, Israeli officials would inspect aid packages in Cyprus before delivery to the floating dock. However, if Israeli inspectors reject entire shipments by land because they contain scissors in medical kits for children, water filters, solar lights or tents — to name just a few of the items that Israeli inspectors have reportedly rejected — why would inspectors based in Cyprus conduct inspections any more quickly?
It is unclear who will actually distribute the aid and how, especially as there is no functioning infrastructure left
While Israel’s reluctance to allow aid into Gaza is a huge barrier, it is not the only obstacle and the US plan faces other risks. As law and order increasingly break down in Gaza, there is no functioning authority that could guarantee the security of US military personnel and assets. While soldiers might not officially be on the ground in Gaza, they will be interacting with a war zone that includes anti-US militants, opportunistic gangs, Israeli forces that might unofficially oppose the aid deliveries and a starving population desperate for food.
It is also unclear who will actually distribute the aid and how, especially as there is no functioning infrastructure left and Israel seeks to dismantle UNRWA, the main organization with aid distribution capacity in Gaza.
One of the problems with aid deliveries comes from bottlenecks related to distribution within Gaza. Humanitarian organizations trying to distribute aid have come under attack from Israeli forces and Palestinian looters. Buildings and roads are so badly damaged that trucks can struggle to get through. When aid is not delivered, it creates bottlenecks throughout the supply chain. Without basic levels of security and transportation infrastructure, aid distribution will remain limited, even if the US successfully delivers aid via a temporary pier.
Delivering aid via a temporary mechanism on Gaza’s coast is an inefficient and resource-intensive approach. Nonetheless, aid is desperately needed. After Oct. 7, Israel converted its long-standing partial siege of Gaza into a total one. Egypt opened the Rafah border crossing in late October, allowing some aid to enter. In December, Israel opened the Kerem Shalom crossing for limited amounts of aid. However, other crossing points between Gaza and Israel remain closed.
The maritime plan is a high-profile effort designed to show that Washington cares about Palestinian suffering
A March 7 Refugees International report noted that an average of 500 trucks per day entered Gaza before the Hamas attack on Oct. 7, but now only 50 to 100 go through each day, providing far less than is needed for the population’s basic survival. Famine conditions are starting to take hold, especially in northern Gaza. A complex process of delivering aid via Cyprus and a floating dock and pier is insufficient but, amid such a crisis, something is better than nothing.
The Biden administration sincerely wants to help ease the suffering and that humanitarian impulse is partly driving the temporary pier project. Biden is also responding to diplomatic and domestic political pressures. Continuing support for Israel in the face of the devastation in Gaza is undermining US global diplomacy. The president also faces growing opposition to his approach among Democrats, which is particularly problematic in an election year. The maritime plan is a high-profile effort designed to show that Washington cares about Palestinian suffering.
However, to critics within the US and abroad, the effort feels like too little, too late. Furthermore, the Biden administration appears to be twisting itself in knots to try to demonstrate humanitarian concern while refusing to use US leverage with Israel. Providing billions of dollars in weapons and other assistance should put Washington in a position to demand that Israel do more to facilitate aid deliveries. The problem is that the Israeli government knows that Biden and Congress will not withhold serious amounts of funding and therefore does not need to heed US requests. Rather, Biden is spending more US resources trying to mitigate a crisis that Washington might have the ability to end, if it had the political will to do so.
*Kerry Boyd Anderson is a professional analyst of international security issues and Middle East political and business risk. X: @KBAresearch

The countdown to Netanyahu’s departure has begun
Osama Al-Sharif/Arab News/March 19/2024
Israel’s five-month-old war on Gaza is testing US-Israeli ties like never before. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is at the center of rising tensions between the two close allies. It is not Israel’s right to defend itself and destroy Hamas, which is at the heart of the crisis. Still, Netanyahu’s unrelenting and brazen push to carry on with the massive destruction of the Gaza Strip, regardless of the horrific scenes, the brutal tactics and the shocking statistics, has become the indelible hallmark of this war.
US President Joe Biden has made no secret of his frustration with Netanyahu and his far-right coalition’s provocative and confrontational policies. Netanyahu’s Gaza war has become a US election issue, stripping Biden of much-needed young and progressive Democratic votes. Netanyahu’s rejection of Biden’s “red line” on the imminent offensive against Rafah has brought ties between the two men to an inflection point.
Then, last week, the most prominent US Jewish legislator, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, publicly rebuked Netanyahu’s handling of the Gaza war and called for new elections in Israel. He said that Netanyahu has “lost his way” and is an obstacle to peace in the region. Biden noted that Schumer delivered a good speech, leaving Netanyahu to retort that the senator’s statement was “inappropriate.” Republican lawmakers joined a chorus of Israeli politicians in denouncing Schumer for interfering in Israeli democracy.
Other Western leaders have stopped short of singling out Netanyahu. Still, they have made sure to criticize Israel publicly for hindering the flow of aid to Gaza, which is resulting in mass starvation and famine across the enclave and the death of Palestinian babies as a result of malnutrition and a lack of access to medical care. Netanyahu’s refusal to approve a new hostage exchange deal has polarized Israeli society even further
Domestically, Netanyahu’s approval ratings had been low even before the Oct. 7 attack by Hamas. They remain low, even though a majority of Israelis continue to support the war and the destruction of Hamas, all while calling for new elections. Netanyahu’s refusal to approve a new hostage exchange deal has polarized Israeli society even further and weakened his far-right partners in the polls.
Netanyahu has also rejected Biden’s postwar plans for Gaza. He is refusing to consider handing over administration to the Palestinian Authority, withdrawing from Gaza and embracing the two-state solution, which he says rewards Hamas. In return, he has baffled his war Cabinet partners by failing to provide a realistic postwar scenario. The Biden White House has pressured Netanyahu in an effort to rein him in. Washington has imposed sanctions on two West Bank settlement outposts involved in terrorizing Palestinians. The EU could soon follow suit. This is a precedent that could lead to hundreds of settlers being penalized, as well as foreign donors.
The US has circulated a draft resolution to be submitted to the UN Security Council sometime soon that supports international efforts to establish “an immediate and sustained ceasefire” as part of a deal to release hostages. The US has previously vetoed draft resolutions that called for such a ceasefire on four occasions. Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, has always been defiant and unconventional. Soon after the signing of the Oslo Accords, he sought to clinch the premiership by denouncing then-Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin and any settlement with the Palestinians. He single-handedly took Israel off the peace path by empowering settlers and aligning himself with the ultranationalists and ultrareligious fanatics.
It is time for him to remove himself and let someone else take a subtler approach to the penultimate phase of the war
In the aftermath of the 2007 Hamas takeover of Gaza, Netanyahu saw an opportunity to play one Palestinian faction off against the other. It is no secret that he propped up Hamas in Gaza against the PA in the West Bank for years by allowing Qatar to bring tens of millions of dollars into the blockaded enclave through Israeli checkpoints.
But Oct. 7 changed everything. Netanyahu, who is also still recovering from an unprecedented public backlash against his attempt to weaken the judiciary and prevent oversight of the executive branch, used the war against Hamas in Gaza not only to destroy the militant group but to carry out an ambitious scheme to bury the two-state solution, the PA and the Oslo Accords forever; all while delaying the inevitable: accountability for the Oct. 7 security disaster.
As the US and most Western countries supported his war on Gaza, Netanyahu and his army failed to secure a swift end to the onslaught. The war has dragged on and the piles of dead Palestinian civilians, including women and children, became too much to stomach for Netanyahu’s Western allies, who faced angry voters at home. The tide had turned and his closest Western friends began pressuring him to end the war.
As Netanyahu ignored such calls, Israel was facing charges of genocide at the International Court of Justice and accusations of deliberately starving millions of Palestinians, all while feeling almost total abandonment by the UN Security Council and the body of nations. Israel had lost control of the narrative. In the eyes of millions around the world, who were mobilized mainly by social media activists and the flood of raw images of daily massacres posted on such platforms, Tel Aviv’s claim that it was the victim in all this had collapsed.
Netanyahu’s calculations are now at odds with his allies at home. His war Cabinet is split and several rivals are vying for his place. The Israeli political establishment now views him as a liability. The families of the hostages see his rejection of any deal to return their loved ones as a betrayal. Moreover, even if his army ventures into Rafah at a heavy civilian cost that will compound the humanitarian crisis, there are no guarantees that he can secure the decisive victory he has promised the public.
For the Israeli political establishment, Netanyahu’s so-called achievements in Gaza are now being eroded by the severe damage he has done to Israel’s political assets abroad, especially in the US. It is time for him to remove himself and let someone else take a subtler approach to the penultimate phase of the war. Netanyahu has done a lot: weakened Hamas, destroyed Gaza’s infrastructure, created a new buffer zone inside the enclave and partitioned the Strip. There is no way Gaza can go back to the pre-Oct. 7 reality.
His successor will carry out most of Netanyahu’s objectives with less drama and fanfare, while restoring ties with the US and initiating a damage-control operation regarding Israel’s scarred public image. In all cases, Netanyahu’s legacy in Gaza and beyond will likely endure: the two-state solution will still be bogged down by piles of details and last-minute addendums.
If elections were to be held today, Likud would be downsized and the far right would take a hit, but it would still have a voice in the Knesset. A new coalition of right-of-center parties, most likely led by Benny Gantz, would rule with little opposition. What the Biden White House has come to realize is that Netanyahu has become radioactive, both within Israel and beyond. The countdown to his departure has begun.
*Osama Al-Sharif is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman. X: @plato010

Are Azerbaijan and Armenia Heading to Peace?
Anna Borshchevskaya/The Washington Institute/March 19/2024
New regional and international factors are creating conditions conducive to ending their decades-long conflict, with potentially important consequences for Iran, the Ukraine war, and Turkey.
Against the backdrop of the Gaza war, the escalation of Iran and its proxies across the Middle East, and Russia’s war in Ukraine, the South Caucasus is quietly undergoing a profound transformation. Armenia and Azerbaijan are slowly moving towards signing a peace treaty. If they do, this outcome would have profound implications for the South Caucasus and Russia, Europe, and Iran. The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan is both ethnic and territorial and has spun for over thirty years. Specifically, the dispute is over Nagorno-Karabakh (or Artsakh as Armenians call it), internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan but until recently controlled by a breakaway separatist ethnic Armenian regime backed by the Armenian government.
This is the longest-running conflict in the post-Soviet space, one of several so-called “frozen conflicts” on Russia’s periphery. In the last several years, observers periodically declared that a peace agreement between Baku and Yerevan was imminent, but it never materialised. However, there are several reasons why this time may be different.
Obstacles Removed
First, a top obstacle to peace is now removed, albeit by military force. After years of diplomacy failed, in September 2023, Azerbaijan carried out a 24-hour offensive against Karabakh.
This led to the surrender of separatist leadership in Stepanakert and the removal of Armenian troops from Azerbaijan’s territory. It also led to a rapid and unforeseen exodus of ethnic Armenians from Karabakh. Still, Armenia’s relinquishment of Karabakh has always been a top prerequisite for peace.
Second, both the Armenian and Azerbaijani leadership have demonstrated a clear commitment to peace. In the past, such commitment was especially risky for the Armenian leadership, which feared extremist forces in Armenia willing to use not only political pressure but also violence to prevent peace.
In December, Armenia and Azerbaijan showed a rare sign of goodwill by swapping prisoners and issuing a joint statement recognising the historic moment for achieving peace in the region. Subsequent statements from senior officials provided more signs of such commitment. In the same month, Azerbaijani President Aliyev’s top foreign policy advisor, Hikmet Hajiyev, stated, “For Azerbaijan, there are no longer obstacles on the way to a peace agenda.”
Both sides have exchanged several drafts of a peace treaty. Most recently, Aliyev and Pashinyan met on the margins of the Munich Security Conference in February this year, hosted by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. The Armenian foreign ministers followed up last Wednesday and Thursday in Berlin in a meeting hosted by German foreign minister Annalena Baerbock.
Another example is that Azerbaijan was chosen as the chair of the United Nations Climate Change Conference, COP 29, apparently due to its peace process with Armenia. Indeed, Armenia agreed in December 2023 to support Azerbaijan’s COP hosting bid in exchange for membership in the Eastern European group’s COP bureau. In a recent op-ed, Mukhtar Babayev, Azerbaijan’s minister for ecology and natural resources and the president-designate of COP29, directly credits peace efforts with Armenia for Azerbaijan’s current position as COP chair.
Borders and Corridors
Lastly, both sides appear to be recognising that a number of remaining issues can be resolved after signing a peace treaty. These are related to transportation corridors and enclaves, and especially the delimitation of borders between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which has never been done before.
Indeed, Hajiyev stated in December that while a border agreement will take longer, it does not stand in the way of a peace treaty. This is important because border delimitation can take years to resolve—indeed, Georgia and Azerbaijan have had an ongoing border demarcation effort since 1991, but the two countries are at peace.
One key unresolved issue is the so-called Zangezur corridor, a link between Azerbaijan proper and its exclave of Nakhichevan, and part of a potentially lucrative East-West route called the Middle Corridor. Nakhichevan borders Armenia and Iran. In November 2020, Armenia signed a trilateral ceasefire agreement with Azerbaijan and Russia following a brief war between the two countries. As part of the agreement, Pashinyan agreed to open a land transportation link through Armenian territory, specifically Syunik province.
The Zangezur corridor represents a competing vision of alternatives to east-west trade routes. It is a microcosm of how the Middle East, Europe and Russia fit in the geopolitical game unfolding in the South Caucasus.
Zangezur would connect Azerbaijan closer to Turkey and, by extension, to NATO and Europe because Turkey shares a border with Nakhichevan. Iranian President Raisi voiced opposition to Zangezur out of concern that it would reduce free trade and traffic between the two countries, along with profits from Iran’s gas contracts with Turkey and Azerbaijan. Some within Armenia do not see a benefit for their country from Zangezur and worry about losing sovereignty to Azerbaijan due to opening the corridor, but Pashinyan agreed to it precisely because it would integrate Armenia into the region’s economy.
Global Relevance
While both the Armenian and Azerbaijani leadership have demonstrated their commitment to peace, over the past year US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and European Council President Charles Michel have been actively involved in efforts to broker a peace agreement, sidelining Russia. It is no coincidence that at year’s end, Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov accused the European Union of trying to drive Russia out of this region and claimed that Armenia’s distancing itself from Russia towards the West and specifically NATO is going to result in the loss of Armenia’s sovereignty, when in reality the opposite is true. Behind this rhetoric is an effort to validate the Kremlin’s own diplomatic failure. That Armenia renewed its threat to leave the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO)—a Russia-led military alliance—is another reminder that Russia’s earlier failures in Ukraine have opened a window of opportunity to shift the geopolitical balance in the South Caucasus and Central Asia in the West’s favour. Resolution of a frozen conflict without Moscow’s involvement in the South Caucasus—a region that links Europe and the Middle East—would put Russia at a strategic disadvantage globally.
For its part, Armenia would have the option of closer ties with the West rather than remaining reliant on Russia and Iran. Thus, the position of both these countries in the region would likely weaken, providing added opportunities for the West to step in and push back against their influence. Moreover, if Armenia and Azerbaijan sign a peace treaty on their own terms, it would allow Armenia and the Armenian people the opportunity to reframe how they see themselves, their history and their place in the world.
To be sure, peace is not guaranteed and remains fragile. The most recent deadly skirmish between the two countries is a reminder that much can still go wrong, especially since extremist forces in the region do not want peace. However, should Armenia and Azerbaijan sign a peace treaty, it would resonate across multiple continents and directly benefit US interests.
If Western policymakers are serious about ensuring Ukraine’s victory, they should consider the broader implications of that victory—and Russia’s loss—beyond Ukraine. As with any opportunity, time matters, and this window may not stay open forever.
*Anna Borshchevskaya is a senior fellow in The Washington Institute’s Diane and Guilford Glazer Foundation Program on Great Power Competition and the Middle East. This article was originally published on Al Majalla’s website.

Emirati Military Support Is Making a Difference in Somalia
Ido Levy/The Washington Institute/March 19/2024
Preserving the UAE's role and synchronizing it with Turkey and Qatar's efforts could be a force multiplier for the Somali government’s offensive against al-Shabab.
The United Arab Emirates recently began reducing its funding for several Somali National Army (SNA) brigades, likely due to frustration with increasing Turkish and ongoing Qatari activities in the country. The particular trigger appears to have been a bilateral defense agreement committing Turkey to expand its military support to the SNA, initiate assistance to the Somali navy, and help patrol the country’s coastline—a deal the UAE itself likely coveted. Moreover, Qatar has continued providing substantial financial and military support to the Somali government, funding the UAE itself hoped to supplant in tandem with its ultimately increased support for the SNA.
The Turkey-Somalia agreement follows a major January deal allowing Ethiopia to operate for commercial and military purposes the UAE-refurbished port of Berbera, in the breakaway Somaliland region. This transaction alarmed Mogadishu, which disputes the independence of Somaliland. Although no UN member state currently recognizes the territory’s independence, Ethiopia has indicated it would break this barrier in exchange for the port arrangement. The Somali government warned it was “ready for a war” to prevent such an outcome, and President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud subsequently shuttled to Eritrea, Egypt, and Qatar to garner diplomatic support for his cause.
Yet the reduction came as a surprise amid renewed Emirati military support for Somali federal forces after the return to power of Hassan Sheikh, who has maintained close ties with the UAE. Since August 2022, his government has waged a large-scale military offensive against al-Qaeda–affiliated jihadist group Harakat al-Shabab al-Mujahedin (al-Shabab), which controls swaths of southern and central Somalia. Spearheaded by the elite U.S.-trained Danab Brigade, with American and Turkish air support, the government liberated significant territory in the country’s south and center. In mid-2023, in the run-up to an anticipated phase two of the campaign, UAE-funded SNA forces proved to be an asset in the fight against al-Shabab.
That SNA phase two, however, has yet to actually be launched, for reasons including an inability to hold recently liberated territories and field sufficient forces. The drawdown of forces from the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), numbering 15,000 and scheduled to depart entirely by the end of 2024, makes the problem all the more urgent. Since 2007, ATMIS and its predecessor, the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), have played an indispensable role in recapturing Mogadishu, Kismayo, and other major population centers from al-Shabab and holding them. UAE-funded forces have demonstrated promise as replacements for departing ATMIS troops.
Growing UAE Military Involvement in Somalia
Emirati involvement in the decades-long Somali civil war stretches back to 1993–94, when the UAE contributed troops to United Nations humanitarian and peacekeeping operations. In 2010, Emirati advisors returned to oversee the creation of the Puntland Maritime Police Force (PMPF), which was founded to combat growing piracy and funded annually at about $50 million by Abu Dhabi. When the piracy threat subsided, the PMPF effectively transitioned into a counterterrorism mission, helping to suppress the jihadist insurgency in the Galgala mountains beginning in 2014, to repel a 2016 al-Shabab seaborne attack on Puntland, to lead that year’s liberation of Qandala from the recently formed Islamic State affiliate, and to secure Puntland’s major airports. Yet PMPF prowess in counterterrorism eventually came at the expense of its original mission, with piracy resurging off Puntland since November 2023, while rampant illegal fishing and Iranian weapons smuggling have continued unabated.
Since 2010, the UAE has developed a sizable base for the PMPF in Bosaso and increased its total presence in Somalia to as many as 180 troops. Fears, moreover, that the PMPF would become a harmful political tool for the Puntland administration have proven mostly overblown. The force has periodically been involved in political disputes, but the UAE has restrained it on important occasions such as the 2014 presidential transition and the Somaliland-Puntland clashes of 2018. Alongside major bases in Berbera, Somaliland, and Assab, Eritrea—which it used for operations against Yemen’s Houthis—the UAE foothold in Bosaso has augmented its Red Sea presence to not only facilitate operations in Yemen but also more easily counter Iranian smuggling.
Furthermore, in 2014 the UAE began training and paying salaries for thousands of Somali cadets. A 2018 row with the administration of President Mohamed Abdullahi “Farmajo” Mohamed ended the mission, but UAE training of SNA cadets resumed when Hassan Sheikh returned to power in 2022. Al-Shabab, apparently heeding the UAE’s contributions, recruited a former SNA cadet to strike General Gordon Camp in Mogadishu, killing four Emirati officers and one Bahraini officer.
At least since summer 2023, the UAE has conducted drone strikes and provided vehicles and training to Jubaland state forces, whose longtime leader, Ahmed Mohamed Islam, maintains close ties with Abu Dhabi. The UAE is likely now building another base near the Jubaland capital, Kismayo.
In parallel, the UAE has invested in helping create a new federal military police unit and several army brigades, having provided—until recently—the funding for 10,000 personnel, with the 3,500–4,500-person military police unit having trained in Uganda, and the rest, forming new regular army brigades, doing so in Ethiopia and Egypt. The UAE regularly retrained the deployed soldiers at Camp Gordon and provided about $9 million per month to pay the new brigades. During last year’s Ramadan, a period that typically sees increased jihadist violence, the military police unit’s activities helped keep Mogadishu free of terrorist attacks and thus earned local respect. Some of the new brigades have since moved to the capital’s outskirts and will constitute a major component of the government’s continuing campaign. Emirati support for these troops is one element in a larger push to generate 30,000 military, 40,000 police, and 8,500 prison guard forces to replace ATMIS and support the government’s campaign, according to a presidential advisor.
An Effective Emirati Training Model
Parallel training efforts by the United States, the European Union, Turkey, and Britain have generally fallen short because most SNA brigades are, in fact, clan militias beholden to the interests of their respective elders. As a result, SNA units—no matter the quality of their training—have mostly pursued clan interests and proven ineffective at fighting al-Shabab, especially outside their own lands. Alongside the Danab Brigade, only the Turkish-trained Gorgor special forces are truly capable of offensive operations, but Turkey has not taken sufficient steps to protect it from political misuse. In the case of Danab, the United States has circumvented this problem by recruiting cadets from a diverse array of clans, setting up a command-and-control system insulated from politics, ensuring on-time pay, and training carefully vetted cadets separately from the regular forces. The UAE has implemented similar measures for the units it trains, including by intentionally maintaining multi-clan representation among its trainees. It also names combat veterans to lead units and monitors new units through a continuous retraining program at Camp Gordon. Finally, it provides on-time salaries at about twice the regular SNA rate.
Implications of the Current Crisis
UAE-trained forces are currently the most promising replacements for the ATMIS presence, and the withdrawal of Emirati support threatens to hinder the government’s campaign against al-Shabab. To be sure, the Emirates has ample reason to resume its earlier funding levels for the SNA. Al-Shabab conducts illicit financing activities inside the UAE, and U.S. Department of Treasury sanctions regularly target UAE-based individuals and companies with links to the Somali jihadist group. Effective in-country counterterrorism forces offer the best means of targeting the personal transnational networks of al-Shabab operatives. Also justifying a strong Emirati role are al-Shabab’s close links to al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula—a UAE nemesis—and the group’s receipt of Iran-smuggled weapons.
UAE-sponsored forces have shown much promise, whereas other countries have generally struggled to build reliable SNA brigades. Indeed, the UAE has emerged as a leading practitioner of “by, with, and through” operations, and a strong Emirati position will allow more focused U.S. attention on reinforcing the elite Danab Brigade. A “trilateral operations” model, which saw success in Yemen, could thus possibly arise in Somalia.
In addition to persuading Abu Dhabi behind the scenes to resume its previous levels of SNA funding, Washington should use its good relations with the three Middle East rivals in Somalia to encourage coordination of efforts. Ultimately, the UAE, Turkey, and Qatar are assisting the SNA in positive ways. A robust coordination mechanism, perhaps a U.S.-run joint operations center, could help make the contributions of each greater than the sum of their parts. Such an institution could also increase transparency among the three while mitigating the risk that their geopolitical rivalry will compromise the fight against al-Shabab.
**Ido Levy is an associate fellow with The Washington Institute’s Military and Security Studies Program and a PhD student at American University’s School of International Service.