Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on February 27-28/2024
Head of UN peacekeeping force warns further strikes in south Lebanon could jeopardize political solution to conflict
UNIFIL head warns of 'concerning shift' in Israel-Hezbollah hostilities
Hochstein reportedly held 'extraordinary' contacts after Monday's escalation
Report: US tells Mikati that Gaza truce will apply to Lebanon
Report: Hezbollah rejects French paper, says it 'has not lost'
Hezbollah fires dozens of rockets at key Israeli bases after airstrikes
Wronecka urges Israel-Hezbollah de-escalation and steps towards longer-term Solutions
Halevi says Hezbollah must pay 'very high price' for joining Hamas war
US calls for ‘diplomatic path’ on Lebanon after Israel warning
US says Israel has assured it that it wants a diplomatic path with Lebanon
Israel strikes towns near Sidon, Nabatieh as tensions escalate
Hezbollah fires new rocket salvo at Israeli Meron base
Is Israel-Hezbollah fighting about to spiral?
Lebanese escape Israel-Hezbollah war fears to ski slopes
Qassem warns Hezbollah has much more weapons to use if Israel expands war
Hezbollah Shoots Down Israeli Drone With Surface-to-Air Missiles
Lebanon's Hezbollah will halt fire if Hamas OKs Gaza truce, sources say
The Lebanese woman, Farah Dakhlallah, is the first official Arab spokeswoman for NATO.
Hezbollah did not set a date for the national moderation meeting
Experts to Al-Seyassah: Violating the rules of engagement puts Lebanon on the brink of war
The Israeli raises its alert to the maximum level... and Hezbollah seizes the Galilee and rejects the French proposal, amid grave international concern.
Preventing a war on Lebanon/Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib/Arab News/February 27, 2024
Breaking down Hezbollah’s rocket strategy: the Short-Range Threat/David Daoud/FDD's Long War Journal/February 26, 2024

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on February 27-28/2024
Gaza war death toll at 29,878, Hamas-run health ministry says
Saudi Cabinet calls for an end to escalation of military operations in Gaza
Biden signals imminent truce in Gaza but Israel, Hamas say no deal at hand
US eyes Gaza ceasefire by next week
Qatar pushing for Gaza 'pause' before Ramadan
Israel troops kill 3, including 2 civilians, in West Bank raid
What would a new Palestinian West Bank government mean for the war in Gaza?
Biden to urge Congress' top leaders to keep govt. open, send aid to Ukraine and Israel
Israel intentionally starving Palestinians in Gaza: UN official
Tanja Fajon, Slovenia’s minister of foreign and European affairs: ‘I fear the world has failed the test of humanity’ in Gaza,
Saudi crown prince receives Ukraine president in Riyadh
Zelensky arrives in Saudi Arabia to discuss POW swaps
Biden and Trump march toward nominations, Michigan could reveal significant perils
NATO's chief says alliance has no plans to send troops to Ukraine

Titles For The Latest English LCCC  analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources on February 27-28/2024
There Can Be No Ceasefire in Gaza with Hamas in Power/Con Coughlin/Gatestone Institute/February 27, 2024
Biden, Trump, and Gaza dynamic/Osama Al-Sharif/Arab News/February 27, 2024
France seeks to rekindle an old flame/Zaid M. Belbagi/Arab News/February 27, 2024
Israeli right will blame the left for anything, including Oct. 7/Yossi Mekelberg/Arab News/February 27, 2024
Real PA Reform Requires More Than Just a New Prime Minister/Ghaith al-Omari/The Washington Institute/February 27/2024
Leaving Iraq May Be Washington’s Wisest Choice/David Schenker/The Washington Institute/February 27/2024

Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on February 27-28/2024
Head of UN peacekeeping force warns further strikes in south Lebanon could jeopardize political solution to conflict
NAJIA HOUSSARI/Arab News/February 27, 2024
UNIFIL mission commander, Lt. Gen. Aroldo Lazaro Saenz, highlighted an “alarming shift in recent days in the exchange of fire along the southern Lebanese border,” adding that “the expansion and intensification of strikes” could hinder ceasefire negotiations. His comments came a day after Israel targeted Hezbollah positions near the Lebanese city of Baalbek. Hezbollah hit back by firing dozens of missiles at the Meron air control base on Jabal Al-Jarmaq (Mount Meron). Lazaro said that the ongoing exchanges between the Israeli army and Hezbollah had “claimed the lives of a very large number of people, caused severe damage to homes and public infrastructure, endangered livelihoods, and changed the lives of tens of thousands of civilians on both sides of the Blue Line.” He added: “In recent days, we have continued our active work with the parties to reduce tensions and prevent dangerous misunderstandings, but recent events have the potential to jeopardize the political solution to this conflict. “We urge all concerned parties to cease hostilities to prevent further escalation and leave room for a political, diplomatic solution that can restore stability and ensure the safety of people in this region.” On Tuesday, Lebanon’s caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati held talks with the UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon Joanna Wronecka to discuss the “mechanisms” for implementing a UN Security Council resolution calling for a full cessation of hostilities. According to the PM’s media office, Wronecka urged “all parties to calm down and work toward diplomatic solutions.” Israel’s mobile Iron Dome air-defense system intercepted several missiles fired by Hezbollah toward the Meron base. The Israeli army responded with a fighter-jet raid on the outskirts of Bissariye near Sidon, more than 50 km away from the Lebanese border. No casualties were reported. Warplanes also hit the towns of Jibchit, Mansouri, and Hanniyeh, where a woman was wounded. An Israeli army spokesperson said: “Thirty-five rockets were fired from Lebanon toward Jabal Al-Jarmaq, but no damage or injuries occurred after targeting the air surveillance base. “In response to these rockets, warplanes attacked a military site and several Hezbollah military infrastructures in southern Lebanon.”The Meron air control facility sits atop Jabal Al-Jarmaq, the tallest mountain peak in northern Israel. It serves as the only hub for managing, monitoring, and controlling air traffic in the area, alongside Mitzpe Ramon in the south. Hezbollah media reported that the Meron base focused on “arranging, coordinating, and overseeing all air activities toward Syria, Lebanon, Turkiye, Cyprus, and the northern region of the eastern Mediterranean Sea. It serves as a significant hub for electronic interference operations in these areas, and a large number of elite officers and soldiers work in this base.” An exchange of artillery shelling between the two sides continued on Tuesday afternoon but was confined to an area south of the Litani River. Meanwhile, the Israeli army at the Miskaf Am settlement shot at a bread van crossing a road near to a Lebanese army checkpoint. The driver and his wife escaped injured.

UNIFIL head warns of 'concerning shift' in Israel-Hezbollah hostilities
Naharnet/February 27, 2024
UNIFIL Head of Mission and Force Commander Aroldo Lázaro on Tuesday sounded the alarm that over the past days there has been “a concerning shift in the exchanges of fire” between Israel and Hezbollah. “This conflict has already claimed too many lives and caused significant damage to houses and public infrastructure. It has jeopardized the livelihoods and changed the life of tens of thousands of civilians on both sides of the Blue Line. Yet we now see an expansion and intensification of strikes,” Lázaro said in a statement distributed by UNIFIL. He added: “In recent days, we have continued our active engagement with the parties to decrease tensions and prevent dangerous misunderstandings, but recent events have the potential to put at risk a political solution to this conflict.”Moreover, Lázaro urged all parties involved to “halt hostilities to prevent further escalation” and “leave space to a political and diplomatic solution that can bring back stability and ensure the safety of the people in this region.”The cross-border violence has killed at least 284 people in southern Lebanon, most of them Hezbollah fighters but also including 44 civilians. On the Israeli side, 10 soldiers and six civilians have been killed, according to the army. The fighting has also displaced tens of thousands of residents on both sides of the border and Israel has repeatedly warned that it might use bigger force against Hezbollah to secure its residents' return.

Hochstein reportedly held 'extraordinary' contacts after Monday's escalation
Naharnet /February 27, 2024
U.S. mediator Amos Hochstein held “extraordinary” direct and indirect contacts with all parties in the region in the wake of Monday’s major escalation between Israel and Hezbollah, diplomatic sources said. Hochstein sought to “contain the escalation, which almost torpedoed all the U.S. efforts to prevent a descent into a harsh confrontation that would threaten to ignite the entire Middle East region,” the sources told ad-Diyar newspaper in remarks published Tuesday. “The Americans again obtained Israeli assurances that there is no decision yet to expand the clashes zone, but they did not commit to any restrictions,” the sources added. The fighting witnessed a major escalation on Monday, with Israel carrying out airstrikes in the eastern Baalbek region for the first time since the 2006 war, in response to Hezbollah’s downing of an advanced Israeli drone in south Lebanon. Since October 8, Hezbollah and Israel have exchanged near-daily fire. At least 284 people have been killed on the Lebanese side since fighting erupted, most of them Hezbollah fighters but also including 44 civilians. On the Israeli side, 10 soldiers and six civilians have been killed according to the Israeli army. The fighting has also displaced tens of thousands of residents on both sides of the border and Israel has repeatedly warned that it might use bigger force against Hezbollah to secure its residents' return.

Report: US tells Mikati that Gaza truce will apply to Lebanon
Naharnet/February 27, 2024
The latest Israeli escalation “has not changed Hezbollah’s stance” that “rules out an all-out Israeli war on Lebanon,” the Nidaa al-Watan newspaper reported. “The (Israeli) war minister’s threats do not enjoy his government’s approval and what Hezbollah has been told by the Americans through PM Najib Mikati is that Israel will not be allowed to wage a broad war on Lebanon, and that Gaza’s truce will definitely apply to the South,” the daily added. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said Sunday that Israel would increase its strikes on Hezbollah even if a ceasefire is reached in the Gaza Strip. “In the event of a temporary truce in Gaza, we will increase the fire in the north, and will continue until the full withdrawal of Hezbollah (from the border) and the return of the residents to their homes,” he said, referring to some 80,000 Israelis displaced by the fighting. Since October 8, Hezbollah and Israel have exchanged near-daily fire. At least 284 people have been killed on the Lebanese side since fighting erupted, most of them Hezbollah fighters but also including 44 civilians. On the Israeli side, 10 soldiers and six civilians have been killed according to the Israeli army.

Report: Hezbollah rejects French paper, says it 'has not lost'
Naharnet/February 27, 2024
Hezbollah has rejected the French paper that was sent by the French embassy in Beirut to caretaker Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib last Wednesday, a media report said. “Hezbollah, which also received a copy of this paper, has said that it is not concerned with the concessions that it is being asked to offer, due to the fact that the war has not happened and accordingly it has not lost,” diplomatic sources told the Nidaa al-Watan newspaper in remarks published Tuesday. Bou Habib had announced Monday that Lebanon would respond next week to the French proposal. The proposal would involve Hezbollah withdrawing its forces 10 kilometers from the border, a Lebanese government official has told The Associated Press. Lebanese government and Hezbollah officials have said there would be no agreement on the border before there is a cease-fire in Gaza. Since October 8, Hezbollah and Israel have exchanged near-daily fire. At least 284 people have been killed on the Lebanese side since fighting erupted, most of them Hezbollah fighters but also including 44 civilians. On the Israeli side, 10 soldiers and six civilians have been killed according to the Israeli army. The fighting has also displaced tens of thousands of residents on both sides of the border and Israel has repeatedly warned that it might use bigger force against Hezbollah to secure its residents' return.

Hezbollah fires dozens of rockets at key Israeli bases after airstrikes
Naharnet/February 27, 2024
Hezbollah shelled a military base in Israel's Ga'aton with dozens of Katyusha rockets and launched a second attack with guided missiles on the Meron air control base in what it said were responses to Israeli attacks on southern Lebanese towns.
The Ga'aton base lies around nine kilometers from the border with Lebanon and the attack is the first to target it since the beginning of hostilities. Israel had earlier in the day struck two towns deep in south Lebanon, one of which lies near the city of Sidon and the other near the city of Nabatieh. It said the attacks were in retaliation to a morning attack on the Meron base. Hezbollah said the first Meron attack was in response to a deadly Israeli airstrike a day earlier near the eastern city of Baalbek, some 100 kilometers away from the Israeli border.Since October 8, Hezbollah and Israel have exchanged near-daily fire. At least 284 people have been killed on the Lebanese side since fighting erupted, most of them Hezbollah fighters but also including 44 civilians. On the Israeli side, 10 soldiers and six civilians have been killed according to the Israeli army. The fighting has also displaced tens of thousands of residents on both sides of the border and Israel has repeatedly warned that it might use bigger force against Hezbollah to secure its residents' return.

Wronecka urges Israel-Hezbollah de-escalation and steps towards longer-term Solutions
Naharnet/February 27, 2024
The U.N. Special Coordinator for Lebanon Joanna Wronecka is “deeply concerned by the gradual expansion in the exchange of fire across the Blue Line in scope, scale and intensity, which increases the risks of a broader conflagration and undermines Security Council Resolution 1701 (2006),” her office said in a statement. “She urges an immediate halt to this dangerous cycle of violence and return to a cessation of hostilities,” the statement said. Regretting the impact of the fighting on civilian lives and property and the displacement of thousands of border residents, the Special Coordinator reiterated the “urgent need to adhere to international humanitarian law and to the protection of civilians at all times.”In exercise of “her good offices,” the Special Coordinator “has intensified her engagement with all stakeholders towards urgent steps for de-escalation,” the statement said. She has also encouraged “concerted efforts by international partners to help the parties find sustainable solutions that enhance security and stability along the Blue Line,” it added. “The Special Coordinator remains committed to supporting a political process towards a permanent ceasefire and long-term solution to the conflict as envisaged in resolution 1701,” the statement said. The fighting witnessed a major escalation on Monday, with Israel carrying out airstrikes in the eastern Baalbek region for the first time since the 2006 war, in response to Hezbollah’s downing of an advanced Israeli drone in south Lebanon. Since October 8, Hezbollah and Israel have exchanged near-daily fire. At least 284 people have been killed on the Lebanese side since fighting erupted, most of them Hezbollah fighters but also including 44 civilians. On the Israeli side, 10 soldiers and six civilians have been killed according to the Israeli army. The fighting has also displaced tens of thousands of residents on both sides of the border and Israel has repeatedly warned that it might use bigger force against Hezbollah to secure its residents' return.

Halevi says Hezbollah must pay 'very high price' for joining Hamas war
Naharnet/February 27, 2024
Israeli army chief Herzi Halevi has said that Hezbollah must “pay a very high price” for its continued attacks on northern Israel. “Hezbollah decided on October 7, in the evening, that it is joining. For that it must pay a very high price,” Halevi said during an assessment in northern Israel with the chief of the northern command and the commander of the 146th division. Halevi added that the Israeli army is “taking the right steps” to enable some 80,000 Israelis displaced from communities near Lebanon’s border to return to their homes. He said that as a result of the Israeli army’s actions, “Hezbollah is no longer close to the fence.”“I think that if we do the right thing, (the residents) will return first of all because of the security. To bring the people back here with security and quality of life, the state will know how to make an effort,” he added.
Hezbollah said it fired rockets at the 146th division’s base this afternoon. There were no damage or injuries according to Israeli media reports. Since October 8, Hezbollah and Israel have exchanged near-daily fire. At least 284 people have been killed on the Lebanese side since fighting erupted, most of them Hezbollah fighters but also including 44 civilians. On the Israeli side, 10 soldiers and six civilians have been killed according to the Israeli army. The fighting has also displaced tens of thousands of residents on both sides of the border and Israel has repeatedly warned that it might use bigger force against Hezbollah to secure its residents' return.

US calls for ‘diplomatic path’ on Lebanon after Israel warning
AFP/February 27, 2024
WASHINGTON: The United States called Tuesday for a focus on diplomacy to resolve tensions over Lebanon, after Israel warned it would pursue Hezbollah even if it achieves a ceasefire in Gaza. “We do not want to see either side escalate the conflict in the north,” State Department spokesman Matthew Miller told reporters. “The government of Israel has said publicly, and they have assured us privately, that they want to achieve a diplomatic path,” he said. “That’s what we’re going to continue to pursue and, ultimately, that would make military action unnecessary.”Miller added that Israel faced a “real security threat” with thousands of people who have fled their homes near Lebanon, calling it a “legitimate issue that needs to be addressed.”Israel and Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shiite movement which is backed by Iran, have been exchanging fire since October 7, when Palestinian militant group Hamas carried out a major attack inside Israel. In retaliation, Israel launched a relentless military operation in Hamas-ruled Gaza. Raising fears of all-out war, Israel this week struck Hezbollah positions deep into Lebanese territory. On Sunday, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said there would be no let-up in Israeli action against Hezbollah even if ongoing diplomacy succeeds in reaching a Gaza ceasefire and the release of hostages seized on October 7. France, with US support, has been pushing a plan in which Hezbollah and allied fighters would withdraw to around 12 kilometers (eight miles) from the border and Israel would halt attacks.

US says Israel has assured it that it wants a diplomatic path with Lebanon
Naharnet/February 27, 2024
The United States said Tuesday that it does not want to witness an escalation of the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. “We do not wanna see either side escalate the conflict in the north (of Israel) and in fact we are gonna continue to pursue a diplomatic resolution of that conflict,” U.S. State Department Spokesperson Matthew Miller said during a daily press briefing when asked about Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant’s remarks that Israel would continue attacking Hezbollah even if a truce is reached in Gaza. “The State of Israel has said publicly and they have assured us privately that they wanna achieve a diplomatic path, so that’s what we’re gonna continue to pursue and ultimately that would make military action unnecessary,” Miller added. Since October 8, Hezbollah and Israel have exchanged near-daily fire. At least 284 people have been killed on the Lebanese side since fighting erupted, most of them Hezbollah fighters but also including 44 civilians. On the Israeli side, 10 soldiers and six civilians have been killed according to the Israeli army. The fighting has also displaced tens of thousands of residents on both sides of the border and Israel has repeatedly warned that it might use bigger force against Hezbollah to secure its residents' return.

Israel strikes towns near Sidon, Nabatieh as tensions escalate
Naharnet/February 27, 2024
Israeli warplanes struck Tuesday southern towns deep inside Lebanon, including a town near Sidon, almost 30 kilometers from the nearest Israeli boundary. The series of airstrikes came shortly after Hezbollah launched a salvo of rockets at the Israeli Meron air control base in retaliation for deadly Israeli strikes on east Lebanon. The strikes targeted the outskirts of al-Baysarieh near Sidon, the town of Jebchit near Nabatieh, al-Hanniyeh, al-Mansouri, and Majdalzoun in the district of Tyre. Hezbollah later targeted the al-Marj post, a group of soldiers on al-Tayhat hill and two posts in the occupied Shebaa Farms, while Israeli artillery and warplanes bombed Aita al-Shaab and the al-Raheb hill. Tensions along the Lebanon-Israel border had increased on Monday, after shot down an Israeli drone and Israel retaliated by striking a village near Baalbek for the first time and a car in the southern village of Majadel, killing two Hezbollah members and a Hezbollah field commander. Hezbollah retaliated by firing 60 Katyusha rockets toward an Israeli army division command in Syria's Israeli-occupied Golan Heights and a salvo of rockets at the Meron air control base.

Hezbollah fires new rocket salvo at Israeli Meron base
Agence France Presse/February 27, 2024
Hezbollah said it launched a salvo of rockets at an Israeli air control base on Tuesday in retaliation for deadly Israeli strikes on east Lebanon. Hamas ally Hezbollah has exchanged near-daily fire with the Israeli army since the Gaza war erupted in October, but strikes have been largely restricted to the border area. Hezbollah said it targeted the "Meron air control base... with a large salvo of rockets from several launchers".It said the rocket fire was in response to Israel's first strikes of the war on eastern Lebanon. Israel struck Hezbollah targets near the city of Baalbek, killing two of its fighters, security sources said. The Israeli army said it targeted Hezbollah air defenses after the group downed one of its drones. In retaliation, Hezbollah already fired 60 rockets at an Israeli base in the annexed Golan Heights on Monday. Cross-border exchanges since October have killed at least 284 people on the Lebanese side, most of them Hezbollah fighters but also including 44 civilians, according to an AFP tally. On the Israeli side, 10 soldiers and six civilians have been killed, according to the Israeli army.

Is Israel-Hezbollah fighting about to spiral?
Agence France Presse/February 27, 2024Fighting between Hezbollah and Israel took a dangerous turn this week with Israeli strikes deep into Lebanese territory, further stoking fears of all-out war between the arch-foes. Hezbollah, a Hamas ally, has exchanged near-daily fire with the Israeli army since war erupted between Israel and the Gaza-based Palestinian militant group on October 7. Despite the bellicose rhetoric on both sides, neither seems to want a war that could set the whole region ablaze. AFP looks at the situation on the ground, the risks and possible solutions.
What's happening? -
From the day after the Israel-Hamas war erupted, Hezbollah began launching cross-border attacks which it says are in support of Palestinians and Hamas in Gaza. Israel has in turn been striking targets in Lebanon, with Hezbollah and Hamas commanders and officials also in its crosshairs. The exchanges have killed at least 284 people on the Lebanese side, most of them Hezbollah combatants but also other militants including Palestinian fighters as well as 44 civilians, according to an AFP tally. On the Israeli side, 10 soldiers and six civilians have been killed, according to the Israeli army. On Monday, Israeli strikes targeted Hezbollah bastion Baalbek in east Lebanon, some 100 kilometers from the Israeli border, the deepest such raid into Lebanese territory since the hostilities began. Two Hezbollah fighters were killed, and the Iran-backed group retaliated with rocket fire, but not at a comparable depth inside Israel. Military analyst Hisham Jaber said that while Israeli strikes were targeting deeper into Lebanon, Hezbollah was still restricting its activities "to within around 10 kilometers" across the frontier. Hezbollah has been acting carefully and only using a fraction of its arsenal, holding back on its "high-precision ballistic missiles that could reach Israeli cities," the retired Lebanese military general told AFP. Neither Hezbollah nor its patron Iran were interested in a broader regional war that could engulf the Middle East all through to the Gulf, he said. Israel in turn was mainly targeting "fighters who launch rockets" towards the frontier and low-level Hezbollah commanders, Jaber added.
- Risk of broader war? -
"The risk of wide-scale conflict of course can't be ruled out, but it is unlikely," Jaber said. But it would only take a mistake on either side for the situation to degenerate. Israel's Yedioth Ahronoth daily said a Hezbollah rocket fired towards the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights on Monday landed near a busload of school students. Monday's exchanges "show how fragile the situation in the north is," Israeli journalist Avi Issacharoff wrote in the daily. Israeli military analyst Amir Bohbot said that "the security reality is far from the situation of an uncontrollable escalation."The two sides "are walking on tiptoe despite the amount of smell of explosives in the air," he wrote on Israeli news portal Walla.
- A diplomatic solution? -
Hezbollah has said it will only stop fighting once Israel ends its Gaza offensive. On Sunday, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said there would be no let-up in Israeli action against Hezbollah even if a Gaza ceasefire and hostage deal were secured. A French diplomat told AFP on condition of anonymity that a plan from Paris to defuse hostilities focused on applying a U.N. resolution that ended the last war between Israel and Hezbollah in 2006. Paris submitted the plan to both sides last month. U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701 called for the Lebanese Army and U.N. peacekeepers to be the only armed forces deployed in the country's south. While Hezbollah has not had a visible military presence in the border area since the 2006 war, the group still holds sway over large swathes of the south, where it has built tunnels, hideouts and launches attacks. The Paris plan also calls for Hezbollah and allied fighters to withdraw to around 12 kilometers from the frontier, and a halt to Israeli attacks, the diplomat said, while France, the United States, Israel and Lebanon would monitor the ceasefire. A Lebanese official, also requesting anonymity, told AFP that Beirut was studying the proposal. But Lebanon has pinned higher hopes on U.S. proposals that include a broader deal to end the Gaza war, the official added.

Lebanese escape Israel-Hezbollah war fears to ski slopes
Agence France Presse/February 27, 2024
Days ago, Tala Assaad could hear Israeli strikes near south Lebanon's coastal city of Sidon. Now, she's having lunch at a packed ski resort, eager to disconnect from news of war. This winter, more well-heeled Lebanese have been hitting the slopes north of Beirut as Lebanon's Hezbollah and arch-foe Israel exchange near-daily fire in the country's south, amid fears of all-out conflict as the Gaza war rages. Assaad, 17, said her house in Shehim shook after Israel struck just some 15 kilometers away -- a rare bombardment deep into Lebanon that wounded at least 14 people, mostly Syrian workers. Israel said it targeted Hezbollah weapons depots. "Skiing is an outlet that helps us disconnect from the situation we're in," said Assaad in Kfardebian, around 80 kilometers from border areas where the violence has displaced nearly 90,000 people, according to the United Nations. Hezbollah says it has been acting in support of Gaza with its attacks on Israel since October 8. But in the mountain town of Kfardebian, recently crowned the region's winter tourism capital for 2024 by the Arab Tourism Organization, a semblance of normalcy prevails. Long queues criss-cross the snow-covered slopes leading to the ski lifts, while skiers and snowboarders glide past. Edwin Jarkedian, 21, said he was fearful after Hezbollah and Israel began exchanging fire the day after the Israel-Hamas war erupted. "But what are we supposed to do? If we constantly think about it, we can no longer live," he said, while taking a short break from snowboarding.
- 'We want to live' -
The cross-border violence has killed at least 284 people in southern Lebanon, most of them Hezbollah fighters but also including 44 civilians, according to an AFP tally. On the Israeli side, 10 soldiers and six civilians have been killed, according to the army, while tens of thousands have been displaced.
Exchanges of fire began shortly after the start of the Israel-Hamas war on October 7, following an unprecedented attack on Israel by Hamas militants that resulted in the deaths of at least 1,160 people in Israel, according to an AFP tally based on official figures. Israel's military campaign has since killed at least 29,878 people in Gaza, mostly women and children, according to the territory's health ministry. Nicole Wakim, marketing manager at Kfardebian's Mzaar ski resort, said that "Lebanese need to escape to the mountains to forget what's happening in the south." More people have been skiing this year compared to the previous season, she told AFP. Skiing is a luxury in a country hit by a four-year economic meltdown that has pushed most of the population into poverty. Marcel Semaan, 41, said a one-day skiing trip for him and his three children cost over $150. The monthly minimum wage in Lebanon is around $100. "We've lived through wars and we don't want our kids to go through the same experience," Semaan said, referring to Lebanon's 1975-1990 civil conflict and the last Israel-Hezbollah war in 2006. "Our hearts are with them," he said, referring to residents of the south, "but we want to live our lives." Before the violence erupted, the World Bank had forecast economic growth in Lebanon for the first time since 2018, driven by tourism. Now, the body expects the struggling country to slip back into recession. Walking in the snow with her three children, Sara Jomaa said she appreciated the escape, but expressed regret that it felt disconnected from reality. "When you're here, you feel like there aren't any economic or political crises," said Jomaa, a Lebanese citizen who usually lives in Paraguay. "It's like the south isn't part of the country," she added.

Qassem warns Hezbollah has much more weapons to use if Israel expands war
Associated Press/Agence France Presse
Hezbollah's deputy leader Sheikh Naim Qassem has warned that the group has much more weapons to use if Israel expands the war. "If the Israelis go too far, we will retaliate more. All what we have used until now in the fighting is the minimum of what we own," he said in a speech Monday in an apparent reference to Hezbollah's huge arsenal including precision-guided missiles and explosive drones. The speech came hours after Hezbollah 's air defenses shot down an Israeli drone, increasing tensions along the Lebanon-Israel border. Israel retaliated by striking a village near Baalbek for the first time, killing two Hezbollah members and injuring an off-duty Lebanese army soldier and his son. later on Monday, an Israeli strike hit a car in the southern village of Majadel, killing a Hezbollah field commander. The Israeli army said it killed Hassan Salami, Hezbollah's commander in the Hujair Valley region, adding that he was responsible for carrying out rocket attacks on northern Israel. Hezbollah retaliated by firing 60 Katyusha rockets toward an Israeli army division command in Syria's Israeli-occupied Golan Heights and a salvo of rockets at the Meron air control base.

Hezbollah Shoots Down Israeli Drone With Surface-to-Air Missiles
FDD/February 27, 2024
Latest Developments
Hezbollah targeted an Israeli Elbit Hermes 450 drone with surface-to-air missiles on February 26. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) intercepted one of the missiles with the David’s Sling air defense system, but a second missile struck and downed the Israeli drone. In response, the IDF said it carried out extensive strikes “deep” inside Lebanon. Hezbollah’s conduct marked an escalation by the terrorist group, which has already fired thousands of rockets at Israel since October 8.
Expert Analysis
“Hezbollah continues to escalate attacks against Israel. The targeting of an Israeli drone using surface-to-air missiles shows how Hezbollah has illegally acquired more advanced weapons from Iran. Hezbollah has taken over southern Lebanon, and its thousands of attacks on Israel over the last four months illustrate how the terrorist group holds Lebanon hostage to its terrorist ambitions, which destabilize the Middle East.” — Seth J. Frantzman, FDD Adjunct Fellow
“Since the early stages of the conflict, Hezbollah has attempted to down Israeli military aircraft without much success. The technology required to down these aircraft could not have been possible without the procurement of air defense weapons from foreign actors such as Syria and Iran. Nevertheless, the Israeli military continues to maintain air superiority over the skies of Lebanon, despite some losses.” — Joe Truzman, Senior Research Analyst at FDD’s Long War Journal
Israel Retaliates Against Hezbollah Attacks
Hezbollah also launched two barrages of rockets on February 26, setting off sirens across Israeli communities. On February 25, Israel Defense Minister Yoav Gallant visited IDF Northern Command and vowed to continue to retaliate against Hezbollah until the group withdraws from the border, “either via a [diplomatic] agreement, or we will do it by force.” Gallant also said that Israel is “planning to increase the firepower against Hezbollah, which is unable to find replacements for the commanders that we are eliminating.” He continued, “If a temporary pause is reached in Gaza, we will increase the fire in the north separately, and will continue until the full withdrawal of Hezbollah [from the border] and the return of Israeli citizens to their homes.” Israel has evacuated 80,000 citizens from the northern border since October 8 due to Hezbollah’s attacks. They have lived in hotels or other temporary residences for more than four months.

Exclusive-Lebanon's Hezbollah will halt fire if Hamas OKs Gaza truce, sources say
Laila Bassam and Maya Gebeily/BEIRUT (Reuters)/February 27, 2024
Lebanon's Hezbollah will halt fire on Israel if its Palestinian ally Hamas agrees to a proposal for a truce with Israel in Gaza - unless Israeli forces keep shelling Lebanon, two sources familiar with Hezbollah's thinking told Reuters on Tuesday. Hezbollah has been exchanging near-daily fire with Israel across Lebanon's southern border since Oct. 8, a day after a bloody Hamas assault in southern Israel that triggered a fierce Israeli land, air and sea offensive on the Gaza Strip. A temporary truce between Hamas and Israel to allow for hostage and prisoner releases led to a week of calm across the Lebanese-Israeli border in late November. Hamas is now weighing a new proposal, agreed by Israel at talks with mediators in Paris last week, for a deal that would suspend fighting for 40 days, which would be the first extended pause of the five-month-old war. "The moment Hamas announces its approval of the truce, and the moment the truce is declared, Hezbollah will adhere to the truce and will stop operations in the south immediately, as happened the previous time," one of the two sources close to the heavily armed, Shi'ite Muslim group said. But if Israel continued shelling Lebanon, Hezbollah would not hesitate to carry on fighting, both sources said.
The Hezbollah media office did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah said earlier this month the group's attacks on Israel would only end when Israel's "aggression" against Gaza ends. Hezbollah is one of several Iran-aligned groups around the Middle East that have entered the fray since the Gaza war began, waging campaigns they say aim to support Palestinians under Israeli bombardment in Gaza. The Houthis of Yemen have been firing on shipping in the Red Sea, prompting U.S. strikes on the group, and Iran-backed Iraqi groups have fired on U.S. troops at bases in Iraq, Syria and Jordan. A drone attack late last month in northeast Jordan killed three U.S. soldiers, prompting U.S. retaliatory strikes.
NO TALKS UNTIL GAZA CEASEFIRE
In Lebanon, Israeli air and missile strikes have killed nearly 200 Hezbollah fighters and almost 50 civilians. Attacks from Lebanon into Israel have killed a dozen Israeli soldiers and half as many civilians. Tens of thousands of people have been displaced on both sides of the frontier. Foreign envoys have sought to secure a diplomatic resolution to the fighting, reflecting worry about further escalation. Earlier this month, France delivered a written proposal to Beirut aimed at ending hostilities. It included negotiations to settle the disputed Lebanon-Israel frontier and a withdrawal of Hezbollah's elite unit 10 km (6 miles) from the border. Hezbollah, which exercises significant sway over the Lebanese state, has insisted it will discuss no arrangements for southern Lebanon until a permanent ceasefire has been agreed for Gaza. The two sources told Reuters this stance has not changed. The first source said Hezbollah had previously specified that there would be no talks with the group until after a Gaza ceasefire, and it stood by this position. While hostilities have largely been limited to the border zone, Israeli fighter jets on Monday hit the Bekaa Valley in eastern Lebanon, the most far-reaching strikes in Lebanon during the current conflict.
On Sunday, Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant indicated that Israel planned to increase attacks on Hezbollah in the event of a possible ceasefire in the Gaza conflict. He said the goal was to secure a Hezbollah withdrawal from the border region, either through a diplomatic agreement or by force.

The Lebanese woman, Farah Dakhlallah, is the first official Arab spokeswoman for NATO.
Al Markezia/February 27/2024
Lebanese Farah Dakhlallah will assume the duties of the official spokesperson for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), starting next March 1, thus becoming the first woman of Arab origin to hold this important international position. This came in a statement issued by the office of NATO Secretary-General Jens Stollenberg, in which he welcomed “God’s intervention” and praised its high communication capabilities, which enhances NATO’s role in today’s world, which is full of conflicts, and expresses the Alliance’s vision for resolving them and enhancing the collective security of its members. It is noteworthy that Farah Dakhlallah holds a bachelor’s degree in audiovisual arts and media from the Lebanese Saint Joseph University in 2004, and after that she obtained a diploma in media and political communication from the London School of Economics in 2006. Farah Dakhlallah’s assumption of this position comes as a successor to the current spokeswoman for the alliance, Anna Lungescu. She held this position from 2010 until the end of 2023. Farah Dakhlallah - who holds a Master’s degree in International Relations from the British University of Cambridge in 2009 - has long experience in the field of media, communication and public diplomacy. The last position she held was spokeswoman for the British Foreign Ministry. And Commonwealth Affairs. Before that, she worked in the United Nations Media Department at the Office of the High Commissioner for Refugees in Damascus. In the private sector, she worked as a media officer in major non-governmental economic institutions, including the Austrian pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca. She also previously worked as a translator in many foreign news agencies.

Hezbollah did not set a date for the national moderation meeting
Al Markezia/February 27/2024
As a follow-up to the initiative of the National Moderation Bloc, Al-Jadeed information indicated that communication had taken place between the bloc and Representative Muhammad Raad, and from Hezbollah’s point of view, it did not mind consultation, but it asked about the “next day,” the open sessions, and what rules they would begin. It was revealed that Hezbollah has not yet set a date for the meeting with the National Moderation Bloc, and it is likely that the issue of setting a date will be postponed until next week. A parliamentary source explained to Al-Jadeed that the representatives of the National Moderation Bloc were advised to be patient and give the initiative all the necessary time so that the consultations would be considered a preliminary stage, awaiting any external transformation that would allow the presidential file to move forward.

Experts to Al-Seyassah: Violating the rules of engagement puts Lebanon on the brink of war
The Israeli raises its alert to the maximum level... and Hezbollah seizes the Galilee and rejects the French proposal, amid grave international concern.
Beirut - From Omar Al-Bardan /Al-Seyassah/February 27, 2024
In a notable development, the Israeli occupation army raised the state of alert to the maximum level on the northern border with Lebanon yesterday, while sirens sounded in the Upper Galilee to warn of a march launched by “Hezbollah.” Al-Jazeera reported that six missiles were launched from southern Lebanon towards Israeli sites. In the Upper Galilee, Hezbollah targeted the Marj site with missile weapons. In this context, the families of Israeli surveillance soldiers in the north, who are referred to as “the eyes of the army” because they provide intelligence information, warned that their children would refuse to move to a temporary location closer to the border with Lebanon, saying that they would prefer to see their children “sent to the military prison for defying orders.” Instead of exposing them to unnecessary danger,” he said, adding that the soldiers are able to carry out their work effectively from their current location away from the border. For its part, and for the first time, yesterday, Hezbollah targeted the headquarters of the 146th Division in Jatoun with dozens of Katyusha rockets and achieved direct hits. It also targeted the Meron air command, control and surveillance base twice with a batch of anti-armor missiles, which led to the injury of a section of its equipment. And its technical and spy equipment were completely destroyed.
After the mutual military operations between Israel and Hezbollah exceeded all rules of engagement, military experts confirmed to Al-Seyassah that a large-scale war has become more likely than ever before, as Israel aimed, as they say, through the fiery messages it conveyed to “ Hezbollah” by bombing the city of Baalbek, in parallel with its continuation of the series of assassinations of its leaders, indicated that the initiative was in its hands, and it was the one that controlled the course of military developments, at a time when the Speaker of Parliament, Nabih Berri, on behalf of “Hezbollah,” was responsible for informing the commander of the “UNIFIL” forces in the south, If Israel bombs Beirut, Hezbollah missiles will hit Israel.
While the threats between the two parties have reached their maximum extent, indicating that things are likely to escalate, which may open the doors to confrontations into the unknown, with Hezbollah leaders confirming that Israel will be surprised by the size of the response to its aggression, and that it will taste bitterness, in retaliation for its targeting of civilians, it was remarkable, Israeli warplanes have been flying densely over the past few days over the capital and its southern suburbs at low altitude. The information said that the escalation in military operations does not reflect an approach to any calm, but rather clearly indicates that the occupation army took the decision to launch a war to expel Hezbollah to the north of the Litani, even if that cost it prolonging the war and incurring more human and material losses, as it is feared. According to the information, the Israeli decision to postpone the return of settlers until next July is in connection with the war that Israel wants to wage against Lebanon, but without specifying a date yet.
At a time when the information available to “Al-Seyassah” indicated that “Hezbollah” rejected the French proposal regarding the south, as “security arrangements” as it was reported, the official Lebanese response will confirm, according to the information, that the implementation of Resolution 1701 is the basis for calming the southern front, that is, for Israel to commit to First, by implementing it, and stopping its ongoing aggression against Lebanon until stability returns to both sides of the border. Lebanon, through the response to the French paper, confirms that the restoration of the Shebaa Farms and the Kfar Shuba Hills is an integral part of the provisions of the international resolution, so that lasting peace can be secured, and awaiting what the envoy will bring. American Amos Hockstein upon his return to the region with ideas to defuse tension in the south, as part of efforts to find a political solution to the crisis.
Yesterday, while Israeli warplanes continued to bomb many villages and towns, especially in the vicinity of the cities of Tire and Nabatieh, Hezbollah responded to the bombing of the city of Baalbek, targeting the Meron air control base in Jabal al-Jarmak with a large missile salvo from several launchers, and media outlets reported 40 missiles were launched from southern Lebanon towards Israeli sites in the Upper Galilee, and sirens were heard in the settlements of Sa`sa, Kfar Hoshan, Doviv, and Safsufa in the Upper Galilee, while Iron Dome intercepted a number of missiles, some of which targeted the “Meron Air Base,” and Israeli artillery bombed the vicinity of the area. Pigeon hill. The occupation army announced the targeting of a military site and infrastructure belonging to “Hezbollah” in response to the bombing of the Meron base. The Israeli artillery bombardment targeted the vicinity of the town of Yaron and the vicinity of Tallet Al-Hamams area, and a shell fell near the western entrance to the town of Al-Wazzani, after Israeli aircraft launched two raids on the towns of Jabshit and Al-Bisariya for the first time. Two Israeli raids also targeted the town of Al-Mansouri in the Tyre district.

Preventing a war on Lebanon
Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib/Arab News/February 27, 2024
Israel will intensify its attacks on Lebanon even if a ceasefire is reached in Gaza. This is the message that Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant delivered while visiting the northern command center. He added that Hezbollah will have to retreat to where it should be (beyond the Litani river) whether by force or through an agreement. Escalation reached a new level on Monday. Hezbollah shot down a Hermes 450 drone and in retaliation Israel bombed Baalbek. As usual, Israel is bullying its way through. However, the path Israel is taking is not really smart. Diplomacy is better for everyone.
War is a risky business; there are a lot of unknown unknowns. Does Israel know for sure that it can achieve its goal of weakening Hezbollah? And what does it mean to weaken Hezbollah? Pushing Hezbollah will not be easy. Hezbollah supporters live in the south. Pushing the militant group is not very realistic. Hezbollah does not have formal facilities where weaponry is manufactured and stored. It is impossible to check every home and every building. The more realistic option would be to keep Hezbollah under control and prevent the south from being used as a launch pad for missiles toward Israel. Basically, the best realistic option is to make sure Hezbollah keeps its missiles in the basement. A war will not make Israel safer; it will only prolong the survival of Netanyahu. Here diplomacy needs to be activated. US special envoy Amos Hockstein is shuttling between Beirut and Washington. The US has one major drawback: It does not talk to Hezbollah. It is talking to Abbas Ibrahim, the former head of the General Directorate of General Security in Lebanon, who is the link between the Americans and the militant group. However, this is not enough. Washington needs to delegate the task to a mediator. It needs to involve Qatar.
Qatar has established relations with some unsavory actors: Hamas, the Taliban and Hezbollah. However, those unsavory relations are very useful, even necessary, and valuable in times like these for everyone. The important question is what can be done to prevent a war?
A war will not make Israel safer; it will only prolong the survival of Netanyahu
The obvious answer is enforcing UN Resolution 1701, which calls for the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanon and the cessation of ground, maritime, and aerial violations. Unfortunately, there is no one to take decisions in Lebanon. The country has no president, no prime minister and no government. No one has the authority to take any relevant actions and no one wants to take responsibility without having the adequate authority. Who will enforce 1701? The caretaker prime minister? The commander of the army?
The first step would be to elect a president and a credible government. Qatar had already started the mediation for presidential elections. They were faced with the greed of Lebanese politicians. Everyone started asking them for money. This was a major turn-off for Doha. Perhaps today, as they are facing an imminent attack, those corrupt politicians might accept to cast their vote for free. In this critical moment, Qatar can play a role in Lebanon by resuming the mediation for presidential elections and extending their assistance to the enforcement of UN Resolution 1701. Qatar would be accepted as an impartial mediator in Lebanon. At the same time, it has the financial muscle to incur any payments that are required by any arrangement. Hence, it is well placed to conduct the mediation.
Who will enforce 1701? The caretaker prime minister? The commander of the army?
Once a credible government is elected, the following step would be to come up with an agreement that would provide security guarantees for both Lebanon and Israel. This will require commitments from both parties to avoid breaching any agreement. It is true that Hezbollah has been in breach of UN Resolution 1701 but so has Israel. Israeli planes have cruised into Lebanese airspace with impunity. There should be a firm commitment from Israel that if an agreement is reached, it will stop these wild excursions.
More Lebanese forces should be deployed in the south to make sure Hezbollah keeps its weapons in the basement. The army is overstretched. It has no capacity to increase its presence in the south. This is why the military should recruit or deploy its reserve forces. However, someone needs to foot the bill as the state is bankrupt. In addition to increasing the number of Lebanese troops, UNIFIL forces should be increased and their mandate widened.
This should be an urgent matter for both Israel and the US as much as it is for Lebanon. A war on Lebanon will totally change the equation. Hezbollah is far more valuable to Iran than Hamas. The Iranians will not let the group go down. A war with Hezbollah will be of a different caliber. Hezbollah has far more destructive capabilities than Hamas. They can overwhelm the Iron Dome. Actually, the attack on Safad was a demonstration, though Hezbollah never claimed responsibility. However, they intended to send a message.
As much as security guarantees are needed for both parties, so are the optics of a win or a certain type of gain. No one wants to come across as the loser. Netanyahu needs to offer the Israeli public something. Hezbollah needs to do the same with its constituency.
So far, the situation is relatively under control. However, if the escalation continues, both parties will find themselves in a position where they have no choice but to go to war. Both sides need a graceful exit from this faceoff. This is where skillful diplomacy is needed, now and urgently.
**Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib is a specialist in US-Arab relations with a focus on lobbying. She is co-founder of the Research Center for Cooperation and Peace Building, a Lebanese nongovernmental organization focused on Track II.

Breaking down Hezbollah’s rocket strategy: the Short-Range Threat
David Daoud/FDD's Long War Journal/February 26, 2024
Hezbollah entered the 2006 war against Israel with an arsenal of 14,000 projectiles – a mixture of rockets and missiles of various ranges. By the end of the 34-day conflict, Hezbollah had lost approximately half of this arsenal – expending it in attacks against Israel or having caches destroyed by Israeli military operations. In the aftermath of that war, the UN Security Council passed Resolution 1701, hoping to install guardrails to prevent Hezbollah’s rearmament and, through that, the outbreak of another lethal war between the group and the Jewish state. Those guardrails have failed. In the intervening 18 years, Hezbollah has transformed into the world’s most heavily armed non-state actor, amassing an arsenal qualitatively and quantitatively dwarfing its old cache, estimated at somewhere between at least 150,000 – 200,000 projectiles – which include unguided artillery rockets, as well as ballistic, anti-air, anti-tank, antiship missiles, mortars, and drones. The following analysis will break down this arsenal into its components and corollary Israeli countermeasures, giving an idea of what a future conflict between Hezbollah and Israel will look like.
Rockets
The bulk of Hezbollah’s arsenal consists of short-range and unguided projectiles, mostly “Katyusha” variants. This part of the arsenal is comprised of different types of rockets, whose reach ranges from four to 40 km, and can carry warheads with between 10-20 kg of high explosives or submunitions.
According to a 2023 study by Tel Aviv University’s Institute for National Security Studies, Hezbollah has about 40,000 rockets within the Katyusha variants, complemented by about 80,000 slightly longer range Fajr-3 (45km, 45kg) and Fajr-5 (75 km, 90kg), Raad 2 (65km) and Raad-3 (70km, 50kg), and Khaibar-1/M-302 (100km, 150kg). If fired from near Metula, this part of Hezbollah’s arsenal alone could reach halfway between Haifa and Tel Aviv, or close to Herzliya if fired from near Naqoura, at the southernmost possible point.
Additionally, during the current conflict, Hezbollah revealed that it also possesses the Iranian-made Falaq-1 rockets, using them for the first time in strikes against Israel beginning on January 26, 2024. The Falaq-1 is an unguided surface-to-surface missile, capable of carting a 50kg warhead, with a maximum range of 10km. It is launched from platforms mounted to the rear of 4×4 light jeeps, which have six Falaq-1 rocket launchers in a ready-to-launch position.
Older Israeli estimates suggested that Hezbollah would fire at least 1,000-1,500 rockets per day at Israel in a future war. More current estimates suggest a more ominous possibility of 3,000 to 4,000-plus rockets fired daily at Israel, at least in the first stages of the war. For point of comparison, Hezbollah succeeded in firing a maximum of 160 rockets per day during the 2006 War and averaged approximately 100 rockets per day. Israel’s primary countermeasure to this tier of rockets is the Iron Dome. Different estimates exist of this system’s accuracy, but its median success rate is approximately 90 percent — which means that 10 percent of the number of rockets fired into Israel will likely succeed in penetrating northern Israel at various depths – which is 100-150 rockets at the low range, and 300-400 rockets at the higher range.
But that is the ideal world scenario, which assumes 1) Israel has infinite funds and infinite Tamir Interceptors for its Iron Dome batteries, 2) Iron Dome performs optimally, and 3) Hezbollah doesn’t employ tactics to throw off Iron Dome’s radar.
The price of each interceptor and Israel’s Tamir stockpile are classified. But most estimates suggest that, given the expected rate and quantity of Hezbollah’s fire, this stockpile would “run out within mere days of the onset of fighting, leaving Israel exposed to thousands of rockets and missiles at all hours of the day, without any effective active defense, and certainly not a hermetic one.” Moreover, endless restocking of Tamirs is not a feasible option. At the lower estimates, each interceptor costs approximately $40-$50k. Attempting to intercept even the low estimate of 1,000-1,500 rockets per day would create a daily price tag of roughly $40,000,000 at a minimum – economically bleeding Israel within days. By contrast, Hezbollah’s short-range rockets are cheap, with much of this portion of its arsenal costing the group somewhere between $100-$150 per rocket to produce.
This suggests the Israelis are going to have to make painful but judicious choices to determine the bearable number of rockets to permit to strike the country and in which locations. Israel will also be forced to choose between protecting critical infrastructure and military installations or its civilian population. Given the inaccurate nature of these rockets, it is hard to estimate beforehand the number of casualties they will cause on the Israeli side of the frontline. What can be certain is that, even at the low end, Hezbollah’s short-range rocket fire will succeed in halting daily and economic life in the north and creating mass civilian displacement from the Galilee, further straining Israel’s financial resources.
Drones
Hezbollah possesses an assortment of drones – including Mirsad-1 (200km range), Ayoub, a Shahed-129 derivative (1600+ km range), and potential access to other Iranian-made drones like the Karrar, Mohajer, and Samed. Hezbollah also possesses loitering munitions, which it has used in recent attacks on Israel. Launching a large number of drones could very likely overwhelm Iron Dome’s capabilities. The exact number of drones in Hezbollah’s possessions is unknown. Still, one Israeli think tank estimates that the group possesses as many as 2000 UAVs – though how it came about this estimate is unknown.
Iron Dome can theoretically engage drones, but its effectiveness has not been tested against swarms of drones, and their flat trajectory makes it harder for the missile defense system to be as effective with them as with rockets. This could allow Hezbollah to penetrate many kilometers into the Israeli Home Front and target critical civilian and military infrastructure. This drone arsenal would pose a sufficient challenge in and of itself to Israel, particularly if Hezbollah launches swarms of drones or loitering munitions. But Hezbollah could also combine drone swarms with rocket barrages, throwing off Iron Dome’s radar and targeting system, and allowing more of the group’s projectiles to hit targets within Israel. Credible assessments suggest that by using a combination of rocket barrages, “loitering munitions, [and] armed drones,” Hezbollah could “bring about the collapse of [Israel’s] missile defense system, completely exposing Israel to rocket fire directed at it.”
Anti-Tank Weapons
Hezbollah also holds an assortment of anti-tank weapons and anti-tank guided missiles (ATGMs). These include tripod-launched AT-3 Sagger (3km, 2.6-3.5kg warhead), the AT-4 Spigot (2.5km, armor penetrating), AT-5 Spandrel (4km), AT-13 Saxhorn (1.5 km, armor piercing). But the most effective anti-tank missile known to be possessed by Hezbollah is the AT-14 Kornet, which has an effective range of 5-8km while carrying an anti-armor or bunker-busting thermobaric warhead, and a longer-range variant capable of striking 8-10km away. Hezbollah also possesses an Iranian variant with a dual-launcher capable of simultaneously firing two missiles to counter active protection systems (APS) like Israel’s Trophy. Hezbollah also possesses Iranian-made “Almas-1” missiles, which are reverse-engineered variants of the Israeli Spike missile, and which it has used in attacks against Israel since Oct. 8, including the Jan. 25, 2024 strike on an IDF intelligence facility located on the border ridge in Israel, north of Shlomi, and the Jan. 27, 2024 strike on an IDF intelligence base in Rosh HaNikra Hezbollah has hinted that it also possesses the most recent third generation capable of reaching a maximum range of 16km. The group also hinted at possessing a second generation of the Almas, which it claims can be fired from an airborne platform to reach a range of 25km.
Hezbollah has had decades to hone its ATGM capabilities, with experience stretching back to its 1985-2000 South Lebanon Conflict with the IDF, the 2006 Hezbollah-Israel War, and its experience fighting in Syria. Hezbollah used its ATGMs, particularly its Kornets, to great effect against Israeli Merkava tanks during the 2006 Lebanon War. Still, since beginning its attacks against Israel on October 8, it has also demonstrated perfecting a different use for them as terror weapons. Hezbollah has been targeting soldiers and civilian and military infrastructure along the border. This use of ATGMs as a precision weapon, essentially to snipe at more vulnerable Israeli targets, especially civilian ones, has been described as “unprecedented in Israel and perhaps the world.” Critically, when used in this manner, Israel has no defense against ATGMs.
The IDF possesses no means to intercept these missiles when they are fired at squads of soldiers, vehicles, and buildings along Israel’s northern border. Since anti-tank missiles are fired by direct sight on a flat trajectory, despite having a reasonably long flight time of at least 30 seconds, Israel has no countermeasures that would give residents even five seconds of warning to seek shelter or intercept incoming missiles to a community. The most likely option would be evacuating civilians from areas within their range, though electromagnetic jamming or smokescreens could be used as a stopgap measure.
But Hezbollah’s possession of Almas missiles may pose an additional challenge for the Israelis, especially if they were able to reproduce the capabilities of the Spike original. The Spike possesses an electro-optic guidance system, including thermal guidance, which gives it a “fire and forget” capability. The operator can choose a target, launch the missile which locks onto even a moving target, and tracks it until impact. If the target is beyond the operator’s line of sight, he can launch the missile first, let it approach the estimated area, and then select the intended target. The Spike can also strike tanks and armored vehicles from above, where their armor is relatively thin. Spike missiles can be launched from relatively mobile platforms like tripods, as well as light vehicles or drones.
Israel’s Response to Hezbollah’s Short-Range Rocket Threat
Israel is currently developing the Iron Beam, a 100kw class High Energy Laser Weapon System, in response to the challenges posed by Hezbollah’s short. Iron Beam possesses several advantages over Iron Dome, all of which would effectively alter the foregoing assessment. It is designed to intercept a broader range of threats, including mortars, rockets, UAVs, mini-UAV swarms, and anti-tank missiles. Moreover, unlike its kinetic interceptor counterpart, Iron Beam is cheap to operate – low-range estimates indicate it would cost $2 per shot – and, because it doesn’t use ammunition, has an unlimited magazine, eliminating the challenge of resupply and production costs.
The system is not without its constraints. Iron Beam has a considerably shorter interception range than Iron Dome’s 70km reach. Its effectiveness can be negatively impacted by weather, and its “dwell time” – it takes several seconds of contact for an Iron Beam laser to destroy its target, which can be further complicated if missiles are sheathed in heat-resistant materials – makes it relatively ineffective against heavy barrages, unlike Iron Dome’s rapid-fire capability. Iron Beam batteries also have a much higher set-up cost than Iron Dome’s. Moreover, Iron Beam has yet to be deployed or battle-tested, but at best, it can only complement Iron Dome and reduce the harm that Hezbollah can inflict upon the Israeli home front, but only to a degree. This means Israel will have to transition quickly to using its offensive capabilities against Hezbollah.
Israel’s longstanding military doctrine has been predicated upon quickly and overwhelmingly transferring the fight into enemy territory. Hezbollah’s rocket strategy, and the inadequacy of current Israeli countermeasures to blunt its impact on Israel, will require a swift, complete, and heavy-handed application of this classical IDF doctrine – particularly since Hezbollah will use this short-range projectile arsenal in combination with more advanced and long-range capabilities which will all need to be countered before their total impact can overwhelm the Israelis.
Israel’s first resort will be to unleash its standoff fire capabilities, including artillery, particularly the Israel Air Force. But as powerful as these assets are, their effectiveness in dealing with Hezbollah’s short-range arsenal will be limited. They may be able to counter Hezbollah’s projectiles that require fixed positions to be launched, especially those whose locations have been predetermined by the Israelis in their extensive target bank. This could counter, to a degree, the threat posed by Hezbollah’s drones – at least those that require stationary airstrips to be launched.
But the challenge posed by most of Hezbollah’s short-range arsenal is its mobility. Most of the group’s projectiles in this category – be they rockets or ATGMs – are typically launched from highly mobile platforms, like trucks or tripods. Their operators will be able to strike and disappear before they can be located and destroyed by Israeli jets. That is why Israel, which relied heavily on its air force during the 2006 Lebanon War, failed to silence Hezbollah’s rocket fire on northern Israel until the ceasefire went into effect on August 12.
Israel could tolerate 34 days of 100+ rockets striking its home front daily. But Israel cannot endure the current threat, quantitatively and qualitatively, for anywhere near that long of a duration. To properly counter Hezbollah’s short-range threat alone, Israel will have no choice but to complement its use of standoff firepower with immediate and large-scale deployment of ground troops to penetrate Lebanon deeply enough to either locate and destroy these launchers and eliminate their operators or at least place them out of range of northern Israel.
**David Daoud is Senior Fellow at at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies where he focuses on Israel, Hezbollah, and Lebanon affairs.

Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on February 27-28/2024
Gaza war death toll at 29,878, Hamas-run health ministry says
AFP/February 27, 2024
GAZA STRIP, Palestinian Territories: The health ministry in Hamas-run Gaza said Tuesday that at least 29,878 people have been killed in the Palestinian territory during the war between militants and Israel. The toll includes at least 96 deaths in the past 24 hours, while 70,215 people have been wounded since the conflict began on October 7, a ministry statement said.

Saudi Cabinet calls for an end to escalation of military operations in Gaza
REUTERS/February 27, 2024
UNITED NATIONS: At least 576,000 people in the Gaza Strip — one quarter of the population — are one step away from famine, a senior UN aid official told the Security Council on Tuesday, warning that widespread famine could be “almost inevitable” without action. One in six children under 2 years of age in northern Gaza are suffering from acute malnutrition and wasting and practically all the 2.3 million people in the Palestinian enclave rely on “woefully inadequate” food aid to survive, Ramesh Rajasingham, director of coordination for the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, told the council. The World Food Programme “is ready to swiftly expand and scale up our operations if there is a ceasefire agreement,” WFP Deputy Executive Director Carl Skau told the 15-member council. “But in the meantime, the risk of famine is being fueled by the inability to bring critical food supplies into Gaza in sufficient quantities, and the almost impossible operating conditions faced by our staff on the ground,” he said. The war in Gaza began when Hamas fighters attacked Israel on Oct. 7, killing around 1,200 people and seizing 253 hostages, according to Israeli tallies. Israel’s air and ground campaign in Gaza has since killed around 30,000 Palestinians, health authorities in the Hamas-run enclave say.

Biden signals imminent truce in Gaza but Israel, Hamas say no deal at hand
Associated Press/February 27, 2024
U.S. President Joe Biden signaled that a cease-fire in Gaza could be at hand, saying that Israel has agreed to pause its offensive during the upcoming Muslim holy month of Ramadan if a deal is reached to release some hostages held by Hamas.
But both Israel and Hamas downplayed on Tuesday the idea that a breakthrough was imminent. In the wake of Hamas' attack on southern Israel on Oct. 7, Israel's air, sea and ground campaign in Gaza has killed tens of thousands of people, obliterated large swaths of the urban landscape, displaced 80% of the battered enclave's population and sparked concerns that a famine could be imminent, according to the United Nations. Now, the prospect of an invasion of Rafah has prompted global alarm over the fate of civilians trapped there. Talks to pause the fighting have gained momentum recently and were underway Tuesday. Negotiators from the United States, Egypt and Qatar have been working to broker a cease-fire that would see Hamas free some of the dozens of hostages it holds in exchange for the release of Palestinian prisoners, a six-week halt in fighting and an increase in aid deliveries to Gaza.
The start of Ramadan, which is expected to be around March 10, is seen as an unofficial deadline for a deal. The month is a time of heightened religious observance and dawn-to-dusk fasting for hundreds of millions of Muslims around the world. Israeli-Palestinian tensions have flared in the past during the holy month. "Ramadan's coming up and there has been an agreement by the Israelis that they would not engage in activities during Ramadan as well, in order to give us time to get all the hostages out," Biden said in an appearance on NBC's "Late Night With Seth Meyers" that was filmed Monday.
In separate comments the same day, Biden said that he hoped a cease-fire deal could take effect by next week. At the same time, Biden did not call for an end to the war, which was triggered when Hamas militants killed 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and abducted roughly 250 people, according to Israeli authorities. Israeli officials said Biden's comments came as a surprise and were not made in coordination with the country's leadership. A Hamas official played down any sense of progress, saying the group wouldn't soften its demands. The Israeli officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they weren't authorized to discuss the sensitive talks with the media, said Israel wants a deal immediately, but that Hamas continues to push excessive demands. They also said that Israel is insisting that female soldiers be part of the first group of hostages released under any truce deal. Hamas official Ahmad Abdel-Hadi indicated that optimism on a deal was premature. "The resistance is not interested in giving up any of its demands, and what is proposed does not meet what it had requested," he told the Pan-Arab TV channel Al Mayadeen. Hamas has previously demanded that Israel end the war as part of any deal, which Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called "delusional."At a news conference in Doha on Tuesday, Qatar Foreign Ministry spokesperson Majed al-Ansari said "we feel optimistic" about the talks, without elaborating.
A senior official from Egypt has said the draft deal includes the release of up to 40 women and older hostages in return for up to 300 Palestinian prisoners — mostly women, minors and older people. The official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the negotiations, said the proposed six-week pause in fighting would allow hundreds of trucks to bring desperately needed aid into Gaza every day, including to the hard-hit north. Biden, who has shown staunch support for Israel throughout the war, left open the door in his remarks for an eventual Israeli ground offensive in the city of Rafah in southern Gaza, on the border with Egypt, where more than half of the enclave's 2.3 million people have fled under Israeli evacuation orders. Netanyahu has said a ground operation in Rafah is an inevitable component of Israel's strategy for crushing Hamas. This week, the military submitted for Cabinet approval operational plans for the offensive, as well as evacuation plans for civilians there. Biden said he believes Israel has slowed its bombardment of Rafah. "They have to and they have made a commitment to me that they're going to see to it that there's an ability to evacuate significant portions of Rafah before they go and take out the remainder Hamas," he said. "But it's a process."Israel's offensive in Gaza has killed more than 29,700 people, most of them women and children, according to the Health Ministry in Hamas-run Gaza. It does not distinguish between fighters and civilians in its count.
The first and only cease-fire in the war, in late November, brought about the release of about 100 hostages — mostly women, children and foreign nationals — in exchange for about 240 Palestinians imprisoned by Israel, as well as a brief halt in the fighting. Roughly 130 hostages remain in Gaza, but Israel says about a quarter of them are dead.

US eyes Gaza ceasefire by next week
Associated Press/February 27, 2024
Israel would be willing to pause its war on Hamas in Gaza during the upcoming Muslim fasting month of Ramadan if a deal is reached to release some of the hostages held by the militants, President Joe Biden said in comments released on Tuesday.
There was no immediate Israeli reaction to Biden's comments on an emerging framework deal, brokered by the United States, Egypt and Qatar, under which Hamas would free some of the dozens of hostages it holds, in exchange for the release of Palestinian prisoners and a six-week halt in fighting. During the temporary pause, negotiations would continue over the release of the remaining hostages and additional Palestinian prisoners held by Israel. The start of Ramadan, which falls around March 10, is seen as an unofficial deadline for a cease-fire deal. The month is a time of heightened religious observance and dawn-to-dusk fasting for hundreds of millions of Muslims around the world. Israeli-Palestinian tensions have flared in the past during the holy month.
Biden said on Monday that he hopes a cease-fire deal could take effect by next week. "Ramadan's coming up and there has been an agreement by the Israelis that they would not engage in activities during Ramadan as well, in order to give us time to get all the hostages out," Biden said in an appearance on NBC's "Late Night With Seth Meyers." At the same time, Biden did not call for an end to the war, which was triggered by the deadly Hamas attack on southern Israel on Oct. 7, when militants killed 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and took captive roughly 250 people, according to Israeli authorities. Biden, who has shown staunch support for Israel throughout the war, left open the door to an eventual Israeli ground offensive in the city of Rafah in southern Gaza, on the border with Egypt, where more than half of Gaza's population of 2.3 million has fled under Israeli evacuation orders. The prospect of an invasion of Rafah has prompted global alarm over the fate of Gaza civilians trapped there. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said a ground operation in Rafah is an inevitable component of Israel's strategy for crushing Hamas. This week, the military submitted for Cabinet approval operational plans for the offensive, and as well as evacuation plans for civilians there. Biden said he believes Israel has slowed its bombardment of Rafah. "They have to and they have made a commitment to me that they're going to see to it that there's an ability to evacuate significant portions of Rafah before they go and take out the remainder Hamas," he said. "But it's a process." Israel's devastating air, sea and ground campaign in Gaza has killed more than 29,700 people, most of them women and children, according to the Health Ministry in Hamas-run Gaza, which does not distinguish between fighters and noncombatants in its count. The fighting has obliterated large swaths of the urban landscape, displaced 80% of the battered enclave's population and triggered a humanitarian crisis that has left a quarter of the population starving, according to the United Nations, and sparked concerns of imminent famine. The first and only deal in the war, in late November, brought about the release of about 100 hostages, mostly women, children and foreign nationals, in exchange for about 240 Palestinians imprisoned by Israel, as well as a brief halt in the fighting. Roughly 130 hostages remain in Gaza, but Israel says about a quarter of them are dead. Negotiations were still underway in Qatar on Tuesday to hammer out the deal's details. A senior official from Egypt has said the draft cease-fire deal includes the release of up to 40 women and older hostages in return for up to 300 Palestinian prisoners, mostly women, minors and older people.
The official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the negotiations, said the proposed six-week pause in fighting would include allowing hundreds of trucks to bring desperately needed aid into Gaza every day, including the hard-hit north.

Qatar pushing for Gaza 'pause' before Ramadan
Agence France Presse/February 27, 2024
Qatar is "hopeful" of a Gaza war ceasefire and is pushing for an agreement before Ramadan, its foreign ministry spokesperson said on Tuesday. The gas-rich Gulf state, which hosts Hamas's political bureau, has been a key mediator in negotiations involving the Palestinian militants, Israel, the United States and Egypt. "We remain hopeful, not necessarily optimistic, that we can announce something today or tomorrow, but we remain hopeful that we can get to some kind of agreement," Majed al-Ansari told a regular briefing. "Obviously, we said that Ramadan is going to be a point of contention, it's going to be a point of confrontation, that we are going to push for a pause before the beginning of Ramadan. "We are all aiming towards that target, but the situation is still fluid on the ground," he added. Ansari was speaking after US President Joe Biden said a new ceasefire and hostage release could start as soon as Monday, ahead of the Muslim holy month that will begin around March 11. "Till now we don't have an agreement, we are still working on the negotiations on all sides," Ansari said. Israel's air, land and sea war against Hamas in retaliation for its deadly October 7 attacks on southern Israel has killed at least 29,878 people, the Hamas-run health ministry in Gaza says. Hamas attacked rural communities and military posts bordering the Gaza Strip, leaving at least 1,160 people dead, according to an AFP tally of Israeli official figures. Some 250 hostages were taken, of whom 130 are still in Gaza, although about 30 are thought to be dead, Israel says. A one-week pause in fighting in November saw more than 100 hostages released, including 80 Israelis who were freed in exchange for some 240 Palestinians jailed in Israel. Egyptian, Qatari and U.S. mediators met in Doha on Sunday for talks also attended by Israeli and Hamas representatives, state-linked Egyptian media said. The Doha talks followed a meeting in Paris, without Hamas, where representatives "came to an understanding among the four of them about what the basic contours of a hostage deal for temporary ceasefire would look like", White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan told CNN.

Israel troops kill 3, including 2 civilians, in West Bank raid
Agence France Presse/February 27, 2024
Israeli troops killed three Palestinians in an overnight raid in a refugee camp in the occupied West Bank, the Palestinian health ministry said Tuesday. It was the latest in a surge of violence in the restive Palestinian territory since the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war in the Gaza Strip on October 7.
The Palestinian health ministry in Ramallah said the three men were killed "by Israeli occupation bullets" during clashes in the Faraa refugee camp near the town of Tubas in the northern West Bank. The Israeli military did not immediately respond to requests for comment about the raid. Video footage posted on social media showed Israeli military vehicles entering Faraa under the cover of darkness. "Dozens of young men and armed men from the camp confronted the forces before they called for more reinforcements, including bulldozers that dug the camp's streets and struck the water and sewage networks," said Assem Mansour, head of the camp's popular committee. One of the three men killed was a militant, he said, while the other two were civilians "in their homes and were killed by snipers deployed in the camp". The Israeli military has conducted frequent arrest raids in the West Bank. Since the war in Gaza began, at least 403 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli troops or settlers in the West Bank, according to the Palestinian health ministry. Palestinian militants have also carried out numerous attacks against Israeli troops and civilians in Israel and the West Bank, killing at least 15 people, according to Israeli figures. Israel captured the West Bank -- including east Jerusalem, which it later unilaterally annexed -- in the Arab-Israeli war of 1967. The Palestinians claim the territory along with the war-torn Gaza Strip for their future independent state.

What would a new Palestinian West Bank government mean for the war in Gaza?
Associated Press/February 27, 2024
The Palestinian Authority's prime minister announced his government's resignation on Monday, seen as the first step in a reform process urged by the United States as part of its latest ambitious plans to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
But it will do little to address the authority's longstanding lack of legitimacy among its own people or its strained relations with Israel. Both pose major obstacles to U.S. plans calling for the PA, which administers parts of the Israeli-occupied West Bank, to govern postwar Gaza ahead of eventual statehood. That's assuming that the war in Gaza ends with the defeat of the Hamas militant group — an Israeli and U.S. goal that seems elusive nearly five months into the grueling war that has killed almost 30,000 Palestinians and pushed the territory to the brink of famine. Here's a look at the government shakeup and what it means for the Israel-Hamas war.
WHAT IS THE PALESTINIAN AUTHORITY?
The PA was created in the early 1990s through interim peace agreements signed between Israel and the Palestine Liberation Organization, then led by Yasser Arafat.
It was granted limited autonomy in parts of the West Bank and Gaza ahead of what the Palestinians hoped would be full statehood in both territories as well as east Jerusalem, lands that Israel captured in the 1967 Mideast war. But the sides were unable to reach a final agreement through several rounds of peace talks. Mahmoud Abbas was elected president of the PA in 2005, months after Arafat's death. Hamas won a landslide victory in parliamentary elections the following year, triggering an international boycott of the PA. A power struggle between Abbas' secular Fatah party and Hamas boiled over in the summer of 2007, with Hamas seizing power in Gaza after a week of street battles. That effectively confined Abbas' authority to parts of the Israeli-occupied West Bank. Abbas recognizes Israel, is opposed to armed struggle and is committed to a two-state solution. His security forces have cooperated with the Israeli military to crack down on Hamas and other armed groups, and his government has worked with Israel to facilitate work permits, medical travel and other civilian affairs.
WHAT DOES THE RESIGNATION MEAN?
In announcing his resignation, Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh said new arrangements were needed to address "the new reality in the Gaza Strip."
Abbas accepted Shtayyeh's resignation and is expected to replace him with Mohammad Mustafa, a U.S.-educated economist who has held senior positions at the World Bank and currently leads the Palestine Investment Fund. He was deputy prime minister and economy minister from 2013-2015. As a political independent and not a Fatah loyalist like Shtayyeh, Mustafa's appointment would likely be welcomed by the U.S., Israel and other countries. Mustafa has no political base of his own, and the 88-year-old Abbas will still have the final say on any major policies. Still, the appointment would convey the image of a reformed, professional PA that can run Gaza, which is important for the U.S. State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said it was up to the Palestinians to choose their leaders, but that the U.S. welcomes any steps to "reform and revitalize" the PA. "We think those steps are positive. We think that they're an important step to achieving a reunited Gaza and West Bank under the Palestinian Authority."
HOW DO PALESTINIANS VIEW THE AUTHORITY?
Abbas' popularity has plummeted in recent years, with polls consistently finding that a large majority of Palestinians want him to resign. The PA's security coordination with Israel is extremely unpopular, causing many Palestinians to view it as a subcontractor of the occupation. Both the PA and Hamas have cracked down on dissent in the territories they control, violently suppressing protests and jailing and torturing critics. Abbas' mandate expired in 2009 but he has refused to hold elections, citing Israeli restrictions. Hamas, whose popularity has soared during this and previous rounds of violence, would likely do well in any free election. But the most popular Palestinian leader by far is Marwan Barghouti, a Fatah leader who is serving five life sentences in an Israeli prison after a 2004 terrorism conviction. Hamas is demanding his release in exchange for some of the hostages it captured in the Oct. 7 attack that ignited the war, but Israel has refused. Hamas has called for all the Palestinian factions to establish an interim government to prepare the way for elections. But Israel, the U.S. and other Western countries are likely to boycott any Palestinian body that includes the militant group, which they view as a terrorist organization.
DOES ISRAEL SUPPORT THE PALESTINIAN AUTHORITY?
Israel prefers the PA to Hamas. But even though they cooperate on security matters, Israel accuses the PA of inciting terrorism, and the PA accuses Israel of apartheid and genocide. Israel's criticism largely focuses on the PA's provision of financial aid to the families of Palestinian prisoners and Palestinians killed by Israeli forces — including militants who killed Israelis. Israel says the payments incentivize terrorism. The PA portrays them as social welfare for victims of the occupation. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said the PA should have no role in postwar Gaza. He says Israel will maintain open-ended security control over the territory while local Palestinian leaders administer civilian affairs. Netanyahu's government is opposed to Palestinian statehood. The U.S. has outlined a path to a broader postwar settlement in which Saudi Arabia would recognize Israel and join other Arab states and a revitalized PA in helping to rebuild and govern Gaza — all in exchange for a credible path to an independent Palestinian state. The reform of the PA represents a small part of that package, which has yet to win over the Israeli government.

Biden to urge Congress' top leaders to keep govt. open, send aid to Ukraine and Israel
Associated Press/February 27, 2024
President Joe Biden was meeting Tuesday with the top four leaders of Congress to press them to act quickly to avoid a looming government shutdown early next month and to pass emergency aid for Ukraine and Israel. Biden was hosting House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky. Vice President Kamala Harris also was attending. White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said Biden invited the leaders to the Oval Office meeting because he wants to make sure U.S. national security interests are "put first." She said those interests include continuing to fund the government. "Look, what the president wants to see is we want to make sure that the national security interests of the American people gets put first, right?" she said Monday as Biden flew to New York. "It is not used as a political football, right? We want to make sure that gets done. "And we also want to see that, you know, that the government does not get shut down," Jean-Pierre said, adding that keeping the government open and functioning is a "basic, basic priority" of Congress. The Senate's top two leaders also urged that the government be kept open. Parts of the government could start to scale back operations as early as Friday unless a deal is reached on spending and legislation is sent to Biden for his signature. "We want to avoid a government shutdown," Schumer said Monday on the Senate floor. "We want to work with all our House counterparts to spare the American people the pain that a shutdown would bring."McConnell likewise urged the political parties to work together to avert an "entirely avoidable" shutdown. "Shutting down the government is harmful to the country," he said Monday in a separate floor speech. "And it never produces positive outcomes on policy or politics." The House, under Johnson's leadership, is under pressure to pass the $95 billion national security package that bolsters aid for Ukraine, Israel and the Indo-Pacific. That measure cleared the Senate on a bipartisan 70-29 vote this month, but Johnson has resisted scheduling it for a vote in the House.Apart from the national security package, government funding for agriculture, transportation, military construction and some veterans' services expires Friday. Funding for the rest of the government, including the Pentagon, the Department of Homeland Security and the State Department, expires a week later, on March 8.

Israel intentionally starving Palestinians in Gaza: UN official
ARAB NEWS/February 27, 2024
LONDON: Israel is intentionally starving the population of Gaza in its battle with Hamas in the enclave and should be held accountable for war crimes and genocide, a UN official said on Tuesday. Michael Fakhri, special rapporteur on the right to food, told The Guardian newspaper that Israel had been deliberately destroying food supplies and restricting the flow of food to Gaza since the war started in October. About 2.2 million civilians are facing hunger and severe malnutrition as a result of extreme shortages of basic supplies in the enclave. Fakhri said that to intentionally deprive civilians of food was a war crime, as per the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court, which states that depriving people of “objects indispensable to their survival, including willfully impeding relief supplies” falls under that definition. Human rights groups have repeatedly accused Israel of using starvation in its operations within Gaza, an act which the UN Security Council outlined as a violation of international law and a war crime in 2018. “There is no reason to intentionally block the passage of humanitarian aid or intentionally obliterate small-scale fishing vessels, greenhouses and orchards in Gaza — other than to deny people access to food,” Fakhri said. “Israel has announced its intention to destroy the Palestinian people, in whole or in part, simply for being Palestinian.”The official said that the situation in Gaza was one of “genocide” and that Israel in its entirety, “not just individuals or this government or that person,” was “culpable and should be held accountable.”“It was already a very fragile situation due to Israel’s chokehold on what goes in and out of Gaza. So when the war started, Israel was very easily able to make everyone go hungry because they had most people on the brink,” Fakhri said. “We have never seen a civilian population made to go so hungry so quickly and so completely, that is the consensus among starvation experts. Israel is not just targeting civilians, it is trying to damn the future of the Palestinian people by harming their children.”Fakhri also criticized those countries that cut their funding for the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees following claims made by Israel that 12 of the organization’s workers had links to Hamas and its attack on Israel on Oct. 7, in which 1,200 people were killed. UNRWA provides food, healthcare, education and other basic services to almost 6 million Palestinian refugees in the Occupied Territories and across the Middle East. “Ending funding almost instantaneously based on unsubstantiated claims against a small number of people has no other purpose than collective punishment of all Palestinians in multiple countries,” he said. “The countries that withdrew this lifeline are undoubtedly complicit in the starvation of Palestinians. “Israel will claim there are exceptions to war crimes. But there is no exception to genocide and there’s no argument as to why Israel is destroying civilian infrastructure, the food system, humanitarian workers and allowing this degree of malnutrition and hunger … The charge of genocide holds a whole state accountable and the remedy of genocide is the issue of self-determination of the Palestinian people. “The path forward must not just be ending the war but actually peace.”

Tanja Fajon, Slovenia’s minister of foreign and European affairs: ‘I fear the world has failed the test of humanity’ in Gaza,
EPHREM KOSSAIFY/Arab News/February 27, 2024
NEW YORK CITY: Tanja Fajon, Slovenia’s minister of foreign and European affairs, has expressed deep disappointment at how the US has repeatedly used its veto power at the UN Security Council to block demands for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip. On Feb. 20, the US vetoed a resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza for the third time. It was the lone vote against the resolution put forward by Algeria. The UK was the sole abstention, with 13 votes in support. With some 30,000 people killed in Gaza since Israel launched its military offensive last October and some 2 million now at risk of famine, Washington’s continued use of its veto at the security council to prevent censure of Israel has drawn condemnation. “I fear that the world has failed the test of humanity,” Fajon, whose country is a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council for 2024-2025, told Arab News during an interview in New York. “Seeing so many kids without shelter, without food, without schools, no hospitals. We see the unbearably high death toll among civilians, the violations of international humanitarian laws — this is on us all.”Washington has sought to justify its veto, saying a ceasefire would jeopardize “sensitive” negotiations, led by the US, Qatar and Egypt, to broker an end to the hostilities in Gaza, the release of hostages held by Hamas, and to allow aid to enter the enclave. Rather than veto resolutions, Fajon said the US should use its influence over Israel to demand a halt to its military operation in Gaza and commit to the establishment of an independent Palestinian state.
“It’s no secret that Americans have leverage on Israel,” she said.
“They really have to do everything that’s possible, first to start serious negotiations with Israel, to stop the violations in Gaza, to ensure a ceasefire, to reach an agreement on the release of hostages and political prisoners and really start working for the two-state solution. “We are doing our part of the job on the European side. But we need everyone at the table.”Fajon fears the worst could still come if Israel follows through with its threat to launch a new ground offensive against Rafah, the last refuge of more than 1.5 million displaced Palestinians. “I do expect that also in America they are aware of what might happen after the beginning of Ramadan if Israel makes its threats a reality,” she said. “If nothing happens, if a ceasefire is not urgently (implemented), I don’t know how we can move forward.”Fajon believes that any large-scale operation in Rafah during Ramadan will provoke massive unrest across the Middle East and beyond. “The anger is growing against Israel,” she said. “And when you have masses of people being frustrated, it’s always difficult to control and ensure peace. So, we are running the risk of a real escalation of violations in the Middle East.”
Slovenia’s stance on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict differs from the EU’s dominant foreign policy position, as mainly represented by large states such as Germany whose defense export approvals to Israel have increased nearly tenfold since Oct. 7, according to Reuters. Although many European states have called for a ceasefire, they have remained broadly pro-Israel. “We are a small country,” said Fajon. “I wouldn’t say we are either pro-Israel or pro-Palestinians, but we are for peace.”She said Slovenians have been saddened by the images of suffering coming out of Gaza. A large portion of the Slovenian electorate, especially the left, are critical of the foreign policy pursued by the US and Israel, which they view as “neo-colonial.”
Many hold a positive attitude toward the societies of the Global South and are broadly pacifist. Many believe the Slovenian government in Ljubljana is well-placed to act as a mediator between Israel and the Palestinians.
Some historians believe these attitudes are a legacy of Slovenia’s time as part of Yugoslavia, which had a tradition of offering support to developing countries, and which was committed to non-alignment during the Cold War, backing neither NATO nor the Warsaw Pact. Fajon recently hosted the foreign ministers of Egypt and Jordan in Ljubljana. She said both came “with a message of gratitude because we really try to listen and be supportive in efforts to create viable or feasible peace plans.”
With the Arab ministers, Fajon said she discussed her country’s desire to hold a peace conference, bringing the Americans, Israelis and all other stakeholders to the table to find a peaceful solution to the conflict and discuss the recognition of a Palestinian state.
“That also means the well-being and safety of Israelis and Palestinians living side by side,” she said. “We are not there yet. I know there are still open questions on how to ensure stability in Gaza after the war.”Slovenia is actively participating in proceedings at the UN’s highest court — the International Court of Justice at The Hague — examining “the ongoing violations by Israel of the right of the Palestinian people to self-determination, from its prolonged occupation, settlement and annexation of the Palestinian territory occupied since 1967,” as well as policies in occupied East Jerusalem and allegations of “discriminatory legislation” against Palestinians. The motion is seeking an advisory opinion on whether Israel’s activities have violated international law. The motion was requested by the UN General Assembly in 2022, and so pre-dates South Africa’s genocide allegations heard by the court last month.
“This is a very broad spectrum of alleged violations that have been committed in the region for decades and whose horrific consequences are still visible today,” Fajon said last month. Speaking to Arab News about the case, Fajon said it was about upholding international law. “We are using our legal arguments, speaking of an occupying force and its illegal wrongdoings on illegally occupied lands,” she said. “Our expert opinion shows clearly that we try and we always follow international law. And that is our main message at The Hague.”
Slovenia has consistently called for the EU to introduce sanctions against both Hamas and extremist Israeli settlers in the West Bank, whose violence “we are following with great concern,” said Fajon. The country has also joined efforts by Ireland and Spain to reconsider the EU’s cooperation agreement with Israel, which regulates trade relations and is bound by the provision that it respects human rights. “We are a part of a like-minded group of six or seven countries in the EU that are really pushing hard to achieve a permanent ceasefire,” said Fajon.
Many people in Slovenia hold a positive attitude toward the societies of the Global South and are broadly pacifist. (Supplied)
“Yes, there are divisions inside the EU for different historical reasons. But from our perspective, I believe we are just very consistent in our foreign policy, meaning we respect international law (and) international humanitarian law. And we say that what we are seeing in Gaza are violations of international humanitarian law.”In South Africa’s genocide case against Israel, the ICJ issued provisional measures ordering Israel to prevent and punish the commission or the incitement to commit genocide, to stop the indiscriminate killing of Palestinians, and immediately enable the provision of humanitarian assistance to Gazans. “We call on Israel to respect the measures from the ICJ Hague,” said Fajon.
“This is extremely important. We respect the work of international tribunals. And that is our clear call to Israel here. I think we don’t have any double standards. We can tell that to Israel, and we tell it to Russia in its war in Ukraine.”She said both wars, Ukraine and Gaza, are a direct result of “regimes that don’t respect the UN Charter.”“We call on Israel to respect the measures from the ICJ Hague,” said Fajon. “In the case of Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, that’s entering its third year, we fully understand and support Ukrainians’ fight for territorial sovereignty and integrity. Because no one, by force, can take your land away or change internationally recognized borders. “We run a consistent foreign policy that is based on international law and the UN Charter.”Slovenia is also one of the leaders of the Mutual Legal Assistance Initiative for the adoption of the Convention on International Cooperation in the Investigation and Prosecution of Genocide, Crimes against Humanity, War Crimes and other International Crimes. The Ljubljana-The Hague MLA Convention was adopted in May 2023 marking a landmark international treaty aiming to strengthen international legal cooperation to help reduce impunity for perpetrators of crimes and deliver justice to victims of genocide, crimes against humanity and war crimes. “The Ljubljana-The Hague Convention is an important instrument because it somehow narrows the gap in the legislation (so) that the judiciary systems around the world can faster exchange evidence in persecuting, investigating, and punishing the worst war crimes everywhere,” said Fajon. “So all those countries that are signing this convention will be in a much better position to move faster with the processes. And I hope that many countries will join in signing it.”Above all, Fajon believes the international community has a responsibility to help those who desire peace — no matter which side they are on — to access the means to achieve it. “In every country, be it an aggressive regime that runs a war or be it the victim, but especially in the country that has an aggressive regime, be it in Israel or be it in Russia, there are citizens and people that want to have peace. “And we have to support these people. That is what I mean when I say we are neither pro-Israel nor pro-Palestinians. I mean exactly our support for these people who want to see peace. “I think this is our role as politicians.”

Saudi crown prince receives Ukraine president in Riyadh
ARAB NEWS/February 27, 2024
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman received the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky in Riyadh on Tuesday.During the reception, aspects of Saudi-Ukrainian relations were reviewed, and the latest developments in the Ukrainian-Russian war were discussed, Saudi Press Agency reported. The crown prince stressed the Kingdom’s support for all international endeavors and efforts aimed at resolving the crisis and achieving peace, and continuing efforts to alleviate the humanitarian repercussions of the war.  Zelensky wrote on social media platform X that he would discuss prisoners of war and deportees with the crown prince. “The Kingdom’s leadership has already contributed to the release of our people. I am confident that this meeting will also yield results,” he wrote. The crown prince was involved in securing the release of 10 foreign prisoners captured in Ukraine in September 2022 which then enabled a major prisoner swap between Russia and Ukraine. The president added that he will discuss “promising areas of economic cooperation and Saudi Arabia’s involvement in Ukraine’s reconstruction” during his visit.

Zelensky arrives in Saudi Arabia to discuss POW swaps
Associated Press/February 27, 2024
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Tuesday he had arrived in Saudi Arabia for talks, including about prisoners of war, following previous Saudi mediation in POW swaps with Russia. "The kingdom's leadership has already contributed to the release of our people. I am confident this meeting will also yield results," Zelensky said on X, formerly Twitter.

Biden and Trump march toward nominations, Michigan could reveal significant perils
Associated Press/February 27, 2024
While Joe Biden and Donald Trump are marching toward their respective presidential nominations, Michigan's primary on Tuesday could reveal significant political perils for both of them. Trump, despite his undoubted dominance of the Republican contests this year, is facing a bloc of stubbornly persistent GOP voters who favor his lone remaining rival, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, and who are skeptical at best about the former president's prospects in a rematch against Biden. As for the incumbent president, Biden is confronting perhaps his most potent electoral obstacle yet: an energized movement of disillusioned voters upset with his handling of the war in Gaza and a relationship with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that critics say has been too supportive. Those dynamics will be put to the test in Michigan, the last major primary state before Super Tuesday and a critical swing state in November's general election. Even if they post dominant victories as expected on Tuesday, both campaigns will be looking at the margins for signs of weakness in a state that went for Biden by just 3 percentage points last time.
Biden said in a local Michigan radio interview Monday that it would be "one of the five states" that would determine the winner in November. Michigan has the largest concentration of Arab Americans in the nation. More than 310,000 residents are of Middle Eastern or North African ancestry. Nearly half of Dearborn's roughly 110,000 residents claim Arab ancestry. It has become the epicenter of Democratic discontent with the White House's actions in the Israel-Hamas war, now nearly five months old, following Hamas' deadly Oct. 7 attack and kidnapping of more than 200 hostages. Israel has bombarded much of Gaza in response, killing nearly 30,000 people, two-thirds of them women and children, according to Palestinian figures. Democrats angry that Biden has supported Israel's offensive and resisted calls for a cease-fire are rallying voters on Tuesday to instead select "uncommitted."
The "uncommitted" effort, which began in earnest just a few weeks ago, has been backed by officials such as Democratic Rep. Rashida Tlaib, the first Palestinian-American woman in Congress, and former Rep. Andy Levin, who lost a Democratic primary two years ago after pro-Israel groups spent more than $4 million to defeat him. Abbas Alawieh, spokesperson for the Listen to Michigan campaign that has been rallying for the "uncommitted" campaign, said the effort is a "way for us to vote for a ceasefire, a way for us to vote for peace and a way for us to vote against war."
Trump won the state by just 11,000 votes in 2016 over Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton, and then lost the state four years later by nearly 154,000 votes to Biden. Alawieh said the "uncommitted" effort wants to show that they have at least the number of votes that were Trump's margin of victory in 2016, to demonstrate how influential that bloc can be. "The situation in Gaza is top of mind for a lot of people here," Alawieh said. "President Biden is failing to provide voters for whom the war crimes that are being inflicted by our U.S. taxpayer dollars – he's failing to provide them with something to vote for." Our Revolution, the organizing group once tied to Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., has also urged progressive voters to choose "uncommitted" on Tuesday, saying it would send a message to Biden to "change course NOW on Gaza or else risk losing Michigan to Trump in November."
Rep. Ro Khanna, D-Calif., a Biden backer who held several meetings and listening sessions in Michigan late last week, said he told community members that, despite his disagreements over the war, he would nonetheless support Biden because he represents a much better chance of peace in the Middle East than Trump. "I also said that I admire those who are using their ballot in a quintessentially American way to bring about a change in policy," Khanna said Monday, adding that Biden supporters need to proactively engage with the uncommitted voters to try and "earn back their trust.""The worst thing we can do is try to shame them or try to downplay their efforts," he said.Trump has drawn enthusiastic crowds at most of his rallies, including a Feb. 17 rally outside Detroit drawing more than 2,000 people who packed into a frigid airplane hangar. But data from AP VoteCast, a series of surveys of Republican voters in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, reveals that his core voters so far are overwhelmingly white, mostly older than 50 and generally without a college degree. He will likely have to appeal to a far more diverse group of voters in November. And he has underperformed his statewide results in suburban areas that are critical in states like Michigan. Several of Trump's favored picks in Michigan's 2022 midterm contests lost their campaigns, further underscoring his loss of political influence in the state. Meanwhile, the state GOP has been riven with divisions among various pro-Trump factions, potentially weakening its power at a time when Michigan Republicans are trying to lay the groundwork to defeat Biden this fall. Both Biden and Trump have so far dominated their respective primary bids. Biden has sailed to wins in South Carolina, Nevada and New Hampshire, with the latter victory coming in through a write-in campaign. Trump has swept all the early state contests and his team is hoping to lock up the delegates needed to secure the Republican nomination by mid-March. Nonetheless, an undeterred Haley has promised to continue her longshot presidential primary campaign through at least Super Tuesday on March 5, when 15 states and one territory hold their nominating contests. As Haley stumped across Michigan on Sunday and Monday, voters showing up to her events expressed enthusiasm for her in Tuesday's primary -- even though, given her losses in the year's first four states, it seemed increasingly likely she wouldn't win the nomination. "She seems honorable," said Rita Lazdins, a retired microbiologist from Grand Haven, Michigan, who in an interview Monday refused to say Trump's name. "Honorable is not what that other person is. I hate to say that, but it's so true."

NATO's chief says alliance has no plans to send troops to Ukraine
Associated Press/February 27, 2024
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg told The Associated Press that the military alliance has no plans to send combat troops into Ukraine amid reports that some Western countries may be considering putting boots on the ground in the war-ravaged country. Stoltenberg said that "NATO allies are providing unprecedented support to Ukraine. We have done that since 2014 and stepped up after the full-scale invasion. But there are no plans for NATO combat troops on the ground in Ukraine." Ahead of a trip to Paris on Monday, where top officials from over 20 countries discussed options to increase help for Ukraine, Slovakia's Prime Minister Robert Fico said that some countries are weighing whether to strike bilateral deals to send troops to Ukraine to help it fend off the Russian invasion. Fico said that his government is not planning to propose to send Slovak soldiers, but did not provide details about what countries might be considering such deals, or what the troops would do in Ukraine. Slovak Parliament speaker Peter Pellegrini said Slovakia won't deploy troops to Ukraine. Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala declined to comment before leaving for Paris, saying the leaders were meeting to discuss possible options, but he underlined that "the Czech Republic certainly doesn't want to send its soldiers to Ukraine." French President Emmanuel Macron said Monday that sending Western troops on the ground in Ukraine should not be "ruled out" in the future, as Russia's full-scale invasion grinds into a third year. While ruling out NATO military action, Stoltenberg told AP "that this is a war of aggression by Russia against Ukraine, blatantly violating international law. According to international law, Ukraine of course has the right to self-defense, and we have the right to support them in upholding that right."
NATO as an alliance provides Ukraine only non-lethal aid and support like medical supplies, uniforms and winter equipment, but some members send weapons and ammunition bilaterally or in groups. Any decision to send troops would require unanimous support from all member countries.

Latest English LCCC  analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on February 27-28/2024
There Can Be No Ceasefire in Gaza with Hamas in Power
Con Coughlin/Gatestone Institute/February 27, 2024
A short, temporary ceasefire might be achievable, so long as it requires Hamas to release all of the remaining Israeli hostages it is holding.
The Israeli people, irrespective of their political differences, will never accept any long-term deal that allows the terrorist masterminds of Hamas to remain in control of Gaza. The Israeli people, irrespective of their political differences, will never accept any long-term deal that allows the terrorist masterminds of Hamas to remain in control of Gaza. Yahya Sinwar leader of the Palestinian Islamist Hamas terrorist organization in Gaza, shakes hands with a masked member of Hamas' Al-Qassam Brigades in Gaza City on December 14, 2022. For all the various efforts world leaders are investing in arranging a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, they must understand there will be no genuine prospect of peace so long as Hamas terrorists retain control of Gaza. Numerous options have been explored in recent weeks, ranging from the Biden administration's wide-ranging plan to address numerous regional issues, from the threat posed by Iran to reopening negotiations on Palestinian statehood, to the recent attempt by Arab nations, led by Algeria, to pass a United Nations Security Council resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, which was vetoed by Washington. US President Joe Biden's plan for a long-term peace between Israel and the Palestinians is certainly the most comprehensive effort that has been undertaken to bring an end to the fighting in Gaza, which erupted after Hamas terrorists, on October 7, 2023, launched the most devastating terrorist attack Israel has suffered since its foundation in 1948.
In an initiative that the White House hopes could help to define Biden's foreign policy legacy, US officials have been working on a so-called "grand bargain," whereby a diplomatic rapprochement between Israel and Saudi Arabia would be implemented in return for the Israelis and Saudis working together to resolve the long-running Palestinian issue.In return for Saudi Arabia agreeing to normalise diplomatic relations with Israel, thereby continuing a normalisation process initiated by the Trump administration in negotiating the Abraham Accords, Riyadh would sign a new defence pact with Washington, as well as US technical assistance on developing a domestic nuclear energy sector.
Securing agreement for the deal from Arab leaders has been the key priority of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken during his recent shuttle diplomacy mission to the Middle East.
After the Biden administration's decidedly underwhelming performance in world affairs to date, on issues such as the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan, the failure of its efforts to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons capability, its absence in confronting Chinese Communist Party aggression and its constant dithering on the Ukraine conflict, it is understandable that Biden should want a genuine foreign policy breakthrough as he launches his campaign for re-election.
This has led US diplomats to intensify their efforts to implement a deal before the Muslim holy month of Ramadan commences next month.
Indeed, the Biden administration's proposals have won widespread international backing, with many Western leaders and Arab allies supporting efforts to implement a ceasefire before the commencement of Ramadan, which is due to start on March 10.
Despite the growing international clamour for a ceasefire, which has resulted in anti-Israel demonstrations taking place in many European capitals, the prospects of lasting peace taking hold in Gaza remain as remote as ever so long as the Palestinians' Hamas terrorist movement retains control over the territory.
Having provoked the Gaza conflict in the first place with its murderous assault on Israel on October 7, Hamas's terrorist leadership shows no sign of backing down in their confrontation with Israel. On the contrary, Hamas is using the remaining 136 Israeli hostages it still has -- of whom at least 32 have been killed -- since the October 7 attacks to blackmail Israel into making a number of outrageous concessions, such as requiring Israel to release 1,500 Palestinian prisoners -- with one-third of those serving life sentences and many who have been convicted of horrendous acts of terrorism -- in return for releasing the hostages. Even Biden was forced to concede that Hamas's demands were a "little over the top" when they first emerged earlier this month. But that has not deterred his administration's officials from pressing on regardless with their plans to impose a ceasefire, even if Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remains totally opposed to the terms of the ceasefire deal currently being presented to the Israeli cabinet.
The Israeli PM is instead concentrating his efforts on launching Israel's long-awaited military offensive against the Hamas-controlled Rafah area of Gaza, where many of the Hamas terrorists accused of masterminding the October 7 attacks are believed still to be hiding, possibly with many of the hostages.
In anticipation of the offensive, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have presented Israel's war cabinet with details of its plan to evacuate Rafah's civilian population from Gaza. Israel's determination to persist with its campaign to achieve "total victory" -- to use Netanyahu's term -- against Hamas has been strengthened following the IDF's recent discoveries about the true extent of the terrorist infrastructure that Hamas, with the backing of Iran and Qatar, has managed to establish in Gaza. Although Netanyahu recently confirmed that 75 percent of Hamas battalions in Gaza had been destroyed during the past four months of military action, IDF commanders remain concerned that the remaining battalions are hiding within Gaza's civilian Palestinian population. With Hamas still posing a significant terrorist threat to Israel's security, no Israeli government will be prepared to tolerate a ceasefire agreement that allows Hamas to retain any form of presence in Gaza, a fundamental point that the Biden administration needs to take on board as it intensifies the pressure on Netanyahu's government to accept the US ceasefire plan.
A short, temporary ceasefire might be achievable, so long as it requires Hamas to release all of the remaining Israeli hostages it is holding.
The Israeli people, irrespective of their political differences, will never accept any long-term deal that allows the terrorist masterminds of Hamas to remain in control of Gaza.
**Con Coughlin is the Telegraph's Defence and Foreign Affairs Editor and a Distinguished Senior Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
© 2024 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/20436/ceasefire-gaza-hamas

Biden, Trump, and Gaza dynamic
Osama Al-Sharif/Arab News/February 27, 2024
It is less than nine months before the US presidential elections in November and, according to recent national polls, it is a dead heat between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Despite his age, memory lapses, and controversial position on the Gaza war, Biden may yet survive despite a dismal approval rate of less than 40 percent and a vicious attack by the Republicans led by none other than Trump himself.
Tuesday’s Michigan primaries will be crucial in many ways. The state is home to the largest Arab-American community in the country. The majority voted for Biden in 2020, but now a grassroots movement is calling on Arab-American voters to vote “uncommitted” on their ballot papers to send a strong message to the White House that come November, he cannot count on their vote. Even if Trump wins the presidency, they say, it is not on them. Biden’s unequivocal support of Israel’s war on Gaza will be a factor in deciding his chances of winning a second term. According to polls, around 60 percent of Americans want a ceasefire in Gaza. Biden risks losing the support of young Democrats; including Generation Z, millennial voters, and progressives. They helped him defeat Trump in 2020. Barring an unexpected event, Biden will contest the November elections as the Democratic nominee. The Arab- and Muslim-American vote will be key in helping him close the gap that separates him from Trump in national polls. Democratic pundits hope that his economic record and Trump-phobia will come to his rescue.
But he needs to address his record on Israel and its gross violation of human rights, the laws of war, international humanitarian law, the Geneva Conventions, and others concerning its belligerent conduct in Gaza.
The American people have no stomach for another month of genocidal war in Gaza, especially if Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu goes ahead with an all-out ground offensive on Rafah, home to more than 1 million people, against US and international warnings.
Biden’s unequivocal support of Israel’s war on Gaza will be a factor in deciding his chances of winning a second term
The Biden White House has been trying to adjust its policy on the war. It is now admitting that far too many Palestinians have been killed and that Israel’s response so far has been, in Biden’s own words, “over the top.”
Still, his administration continues to arm Israel and fund the war, and Netanyahu has ignored Biden’s advice and pleas to bring the military operation to a swift end.
It also revived talk about the need for a Palestinian state through the two-state solution without specifying what that solution would look like or how it would be implemented when Netanyahu and his far-right partners adamantly rejected it.
Biden’s hands are tied because it is an election year where he faces an uphill struggle to get re-elected. He is avoiding a public quarrel with Netanyahu for fear that the Republicans and Trump will accuse him of abandoning Israel to its radical Islamist enemies. But such a clash will come sooner rather than later: Over Netanyahu’s declaration that Israel will never withdraw from Gaza, settler rampage in the West Bank, approving building permits for new Jewish settlements, and even waging total war on Lebanon. On the other hand, Trump appears to be close to clinching his party’s nomination as soon as early next month. Israel’s war on Gaza has not been a centerpiece of the former American president’s attacks on Biden. He has focused on issues that matter most to his constituency — borders and illegal immigration, abortion, gender issues, and drugs, among others.
Republican pundits and conservative media have also focused on this while siding blindly with Israel and its decimation of the people of Gaza. When Trump was asked where he stood and what he would do if he were in charge, he offered incoherent and vague answers. Yes, he was behind Israel and would not have let Hamas launch the Oct. 7 attack. He suggested that the Israel-Hamas war would have to take its course.
“So, you have a war that’s going on, and you’re probably going to have to let this play out,” Trump recently told Univision.
Trump would go after Iran and its proxies and would argue that he would have secured the release of American hostages held by Hamas. He said he would reject refugees from Gaza from entering the US, and he has called for ideological screenings for those entering the country. And once again, he vowed to bar immigrants who supported Hamas from entering the US, and would send officers to pro-Hamas protests to arrest and deport immigrants who publicly supported it.
He avoided any reference to a Palestinian state or to his 2018 peace plan, which the Palestinians rejected and got tepid attention from Netanyahu back then.
The fact of the matter is that while Trump cannot but declare his support for Israel, he has yet to deal with a divided America on the issue of Palestinian self-determination and Israeli atrocities. Will a second term for Biden change his approach to the conflict as he pushes to make the two-state solution happen? One argument is that Biden would be free of pressure from Congress and lobbies and may want to repair his policy following the devastation incurred on the Palestinians, especially in Gaza.
That depends on several factors, including how soon the war will end, what happens on the day after, the pressure from the international community and Arab allies to deliver a balanced approach to bring some justice to the Palestinians, and what happens in Israel itself after the war and whether Netanyahu and his extremist partners will prevail. On the other hand, if Trump wins in November, he is unlikely to do anything quickly unless a regional war has erupted in the Middle East.
One should expect the unexpected from Trump. He may learn from Biden’s foreign policy faults or opt to be the maverick that he is and decide that America has had enough of the Middle East and should focus on its real rival, China, instead.
Despite what “Genocide Joe,” as Arab-Americans and young Democratic voters are now calling him, does from now until November, his chances of winning will not be easy. The courts may decide Trump’s fate, and if he is convicted, his fight to stay in will depend on his ability to finance his campaigns, and legal precedents. The lesser of two evils will be Biden and a Democratic administration. Still, in all cases, the political chaos ripping America apart should come as a wake-up call to the leaders of the Middle East to chart their own course. No one in the region, apart from a handful of zealots and bigots in Israel, wants to see a regional war flare up. And no matter how the war on Gaza ends, the world is coming to realize that a just and lasting solution to the Palestine issue must be reached to avoid another Gaza-like catastrophe.
**Osama Al-Sharif is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman. X: @plato010

France seeks to rekindle an old flame
Zaid M. Belbagi/Arab News/February 27, 2024
There has been in recent years a rift in the longstanding and complex relationship between France and Morocco. There have been signs however that the two countries are working toward a reset.
Earlier this week, France’s First Lady Brigitte Macron hosted Morocco’s Princesses Lalla Hasna, Lalla Asmaa and Lalla Maryam at the Elysee Palace. The sisters of Morocco’s King Mohamed VI undertook the visit under special instructions from the monarch.
This high-level visit took place shortly after France’s Ambassador to Morocco Christophe Lecourtier’s recent comments that “France had looked at Morocco through an outdated lens” stressing the importance and potential of enhancing ties. Lecourtier’s work has been relentless, echoing the efforts of his government. Notably, in October 2023, France’s Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire visited Marrakech to discuss economic relations with his counterpart Prime Minister Aziz Akhannouch. In a gift to the scriptwriter on Valentine’s Day, France’s Foreign Affairs Minister Stephane Sojourne reiterated the country's commitment to bolstering ties with Morocco while speaking in France’s National Assembly.
Despite President Emmanuel Macron choosing Rabat as his first overseas visit as leader, a growing rift in ties has become particularly evident since 2021 when France announced a visa restriction for nationals from Maghreb countries due to a reported increase in illegal immigration. Tensions increased as France steadily improved its relations with Algeria. Morocco and Algeria hold opposing positions on the status of Morocco’s southern provinces and Rabat rightly took this to mean Paris was rejecting its claims and indeed the cordial ties that had existed previously.
These diplomatic concerns have been exacerbated on the personal level, with the uppity and somewhat presumptuous style of Macron stonewalled by the rigid protocol of Morocco’s palace. In 2022 Macron announced to waiting reporters in Algiers that his next trip was to Morocco, only for Rabat to officially communicate that an invitation had not been extended.
Last year was particularly challenging for France-Morocco relations. In January, the EU Parliament held a discussion and vote on freedom of expression and journalism in the country. This motion was reportedly led by President Macron. On the same day, Morocco recalled its ambassador to France Mohamed Benchaaboun as it perceived this vote to be an interference in its domestic matters, and an attempt to defame the country. This ambassadorial position remained vacant until November, when Samira Sitail was appointed. Similarly, Morocco delayed the accreditation of Ambassador Lecourtier for almost a year. His eventual audience was late in the afternoon following those of a dozen other foreign emissaries to Morocco.
Morocco offers economic and political stability as well as a business environment that is lucrative for France.
The most notable sign of this rift was in September, following the devastating earthquake in the Atlas that killed and injured over 7,000 people. As international aid and rescue support poured into the country, Morocco was quick to decline France’s offers, with Macron having again breached protocol by seeming to address Moroccans directly. Following this snub, Morocco simultaneously accepted similar assistance from other Western nations including the UK and Spain.
This tension comes amid the wider context of France’s waning influence in Francophone Africa, a region that for long shared deep ties with France during and after colonial rule. Since 2020, the Sahel region has seen at least six coup d’etats including in Mali, Chad, Niger, Guinea, and Burkina Faso. As subsequent governments were overthrown in the region, anti-French sentiment was quick to emerge as the common theme. The leaders of the military juntas have criticized France’s foreign policy in the region, sought to sever defence, diplomatic and cultural ties with France, and called for French troops and diplomats to exit the country. “Today, Morocco has a new status in Africa at a time when France is clearly losing influence in the region,” said Abdelmalek Alaoui, president of the Moroccan Institute for Strategic Intelligence. In this context, Morocco’s growing role in Africa and indeed internationally is of more importance to France as it loses allies in the Sahel. As Morocco seeks to adopt the English language and establish independent ties with the West and the Global South, France has no option but to reengage or risk losing further influence.
There is no doubt that as Morocco’s regional and global status expands, domestic appetite to accept France’s traditional paternalistic approach toward the country has reduced. However, despite these growing differences, both countries realize the vitality of their shared economic and cultural ties. France remains the leading foreign investor in Morocco, and with over 800,000 people of Moroccan origin in France, they form the country’s second-largest immigrant community.
While France’s renewed effort to work with Morocco is partly economically motivated, it is also an attempt by Paris to retain influence over FranceAfrique — France’s traditional sphere of influence in postcolonial Africa. Morocco offers economic and political stability as well as a business environment that is lucrative for France. France will also begin to draw on Morocco’s capacity to power Europe from renewables, a geopolitical reality which will temper Paris’ fascination with Algiers and indeed prompt a review of its stance on the Saharan issue.
• Zaid M. Belbagi is a political commentator and an adviser to private clients between London and the GCC.
X: @Moulay_Zaid

Israeli right will blame the left for anything, including Oct. 7
Yossi Mekelberg/Arab News/February 27, 2024
More than four months into the war in Gaza and with no end in sight, it has become apparent that this ongoing tragedy is tearing Israeli society apart.
There is an expectation that a country in the midst of a war, particularly after the shock followed by the trauma of Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack, will unite in grief and a shared sense of purpose. This did happen for a very brief period, but then the cracks started showing. Much of this should be attributed to the discordant character of the current coalition government. Chief of those who rule by driving wedges into society is Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who aims to serve his own vested interest by holding onto power indefinitely.
For Netanyahu and his allies, nothing is sacred anymore and, between them, the motivation is either to remain in power despite their colossal failure to prevent the disaster inflicted by Hamas or to use the war as a springboard for applying the most extreme far-right religious ideology, which does not shy away from demanding that Israel reoccupy Gaza and resettle it, as well as annex the West Bank.
Retaining the most powerful office in the land makes it easier for Netanyahu to derail his corruption trial by constantly undermining the justices. His thirst for power matches that of his coalition partners who ideologically oppose the independence of the judiciary and despise the idea of a liberal democracy cherished by the more liberal-progressive minded. Hence, the latter have become a target for accusations of not being Jewish enough, of being generally decadent and, in relations with the Palestinians, being either naive or plainly traitors.
If this trend continues, political violence, even civil war, will be within the realm of possibility
Shamelessly, the very government that failed to defend its citizens on the day that has become known as the “black sabbath” is now turning the blame for it on those who protested in support of the independence of the judiciary. It is also turning against the families of the hostages for their demand that the government advance a deal with Hamas for the release of their loved ones. The government accuses both of preventing the army from completing its task in Gaza.
The war has brought the worst out of the unscrupulous chorus of the right — its government and its loyal media — as it shamelessly attacks the leaders of opposition parties and those who have led the pro-democracy protests. On one occasion, a Likud MK — yes, an elected lawmaker — revealed on X that the husband of one of the leaders of the protests, Shikma Bresler, is a senior Shin Bet official and, against the law, published his name. Without offering any evidence, the MK claimed that just days before the Hamas attack, he spoke on the phone with Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas in Gaza, implying that there was a conspiracy between Hamas and the Israeli security forces to allow this attack, with the sole aim of toppling the current government. In other words, accusing them of treason and putting them and their families at risk by revealing their names.
As a result of such constant and vicious incitements flooding social media, it is not surprising that a recent survey concluded that one in five Israeli Jews believe that the Israeli left is to blame for the failure to stop Hamas from committing atrocities against the communities along the border with Gaza and is also preventing the Israeli armed forces from achieving its objectives. If this trend continues, political violence, even civil war, will be within the realm of possibility.
Attempts to delegitimize the liberal-progressive social and political forces in Israel are nothing new and, since Likud came to power in 1977, right-wing extremists have not refrained from political violence either. Admittedly, actual political violence has been sporadic, although in 1995 it claimed the life of Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin, who was assassinated by an extreme right-wing assailant who admitted that he committed this act in order to stop the peace process following the signing of the Oslo Accords.
But if political violence is not common, vitriolic language of the worst kind, intimidation and delegitimization have reached fever pitch since the sixth Netanyahu government, the most ultranationalist, messianic and religious administration in the country’s history, was formed just over a year ago. It has, after a short hiatus following Oct. 7, resumed such behavior with even more venom.
Vitriolic language of the worst kind, intimidation and delegitimization have reached fever pitch
It is inescapable that the spread and speed of information due to multiple TV and radio stations, and especially social media, contributes to skewing the balance between facts and falsehood and between well substantiated and argued opinion and sheer propaganda with an obvious political agenda. Netanyahu was one of the first in Israel to understand that controlling the media, or at least some journalists and editors and making them loyal to him personally at whatever cost, would enable him to control the narrative. It also allows him to spread half-truths, not to mention sheer lies, as long as they serve his narrative and, when required, to unleash them against political opponents, the judiciary and other more critical media outlets.
For example, controlling the narrative enables Netanyahu and his government to promote their anti-democratic legislation and falsely portray it as a reform to improve Israel’s democracy. Controlling the narrative enables him to legitimize the vilest ultranationalist-religious version of Zionism, including violent groups of settlers, bring them to the heart of his government and depict it as forming the first true right-wing government to be immune from foreign influence.
Controlling the narrative is also to deflect the blame for Netanyahu’s total failure to avert Hamas’ deadly attack and to release the hostages or to defeat Hamas onto the opposition, while depicting the prime minister as blameless. This ignores the fact that it was his idea to allow vast amounts of money to be transferred to Hamas and, by that, strengthening the group.
Whenever Netanyahu has his back to the wall, he resorts to the oldest and dirtiest trick in the far-right’s playbook: finding a scapegoat in the form of a fictitious enemy within by viciously smearing his political opponents and questioning their loyalty to the country. Inevitably, Netanyahu will soon be democratically forced out of office, but his divisive legacy will be much more difficult to uproot. It is threatening the already fragile fabric of Israeli society.
Hence, the overriding task of the next government will be to heal this fragmentation, while also striving for peace with the Palestinians; both mammoth tasks that are closely related and equally important.
**Yossi Mekelberg is a professor of international relations and an associate fellow of the Middle East and North Africa Program at international affairs think tank Chatham House. X: @YMekelberg

Real PA Reform Requires More Than Just a New Prime Minister
Ghaith al-Omari/The Washington Institute/February 27/2024
Neither the Palestinian public nor the international donor community will support a PA return to Gaza unless the next cabinet is given room to implement serious security, financial, and political reforms.
On February 26, Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas accepted the resignation of Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh and his cabinet. A member of the Fatah Central Committee who has served as premier since 2019, Shtayyeh is stepping down amid growing U.S., European, and Arab calls to reform the PA. The goal is for Ramallah to play a role in humanitarian, reconstruction, and governance efforts in postwar Gaza and, ultimately, reassume control over the Strip. Does this announcement signal that the PA leadership is willing to consider genuine reform, or is it simply a maneuver to ease international pressure?
Empowering the Next Government
Shtayyeh’s replacement has yet to be officially designated. To be credible, however, any candidate will need to be seen as independent and empowered—particularly in the financial and security spheres. This is essential not only for domestic Palestinian purposes, but also for the sake of sustainable postwar arrangements in Gaza.In the short term, expecting the PA to implement a full takeover is unrealistic. Yet donors need to be convinced that it is sufficiently reformed, capable, and financially transparent to play a progressively increasing role in managing reconstruction and governance—all without diverting assistance to unintended purposes. Similarly, international actors will be reluctant to get involved in transitional arrangements unless they are sure the PA is serious about building the necessary security capabilities.
In the longer term, the presence of a reformed, capable PA is also necessary to achieving a two-state solution or even taking steps in that direction. Otherwise, the outcome would likely be another failed state in a region rife with such destabilizing models.
Two questions will determine whether these conditions are met. First, will the new prime minister be empowered to undertake the necessary reforms? The next government’s top agenda items are daunting—they include rebuilding and expanding the security forces to resume control in the West Bank and, more gradually, Gaza, as well as creating a transparent, trusted public finance system to serve as a conduit for international assistance and reconstruction funds. These tasks cannot be achieved amid constant interference by other Palestinian power centers. The more independent Shtayyeh’s replacement is, the more confidence there will be in the prime minister’s ability to confront Abbas and senior Fatah figures, many of whom will likely try to undermine meaningful reform. Independence does not mean lack of factional affiliation, but designating someone who is too close or deferential to Abbas would cast doubt on the move’s significance.Second, who will control the cabinet formation process? The extent to which these appointments are dictated by Abbas or the Fatah Central Committee will be an early indicator of the prime minister’s future prospects. Particular attention should be paid to the choice of interior minister (who has jurisdiction over the security services) and finance minister. Historically, both of these portfolios have been subject to heavy interference from the president and Fatah.
Other indicators bear watching as well. For instance, will the next cabinet be a true technocratic government in which expert ministers are appointed, or a so-called “national consensus” government whose members are chosen by various factions, including Hamas? Any sign that the government includes figures close to Hamas would make it unacceptable to the international community. Moreover, will the cabinet include youth representation, or will it be dominated by older, more traditional figures? Deep reform is much less likely in the latter scenario.
Legitimacy Problems
Besides these questions about empowerment, it is unclear whether simply changing the prime minister and cabinet will be enough to jumpstart the PA’s political rehabilitation. Reassuming control in Gaza requires more than just enhanced operational capabilities—it also depends on the people’s willingness to accept the PA’s rule.Recent polls indicate that around 60 percent of Palestinians want to dissolve the PA and around 90 percent want Abbas to resign. Appointing a new prime minister may not be enough to fix this wider legitimacy problem, especially if there are doubts about the next cabinet’s independence and empowerment. Without clear signs that larger changes are in the works, public trust in the PA will remain low. And beyond the immediate priority of reforming the PA, longer-term change will require reenergizing Fatah and reforming the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), both of which are led by Abbas.
Implications for U.S. Policy
Once the next prime minister is named, the Biden administration’s reaction will be seen as an indicator of Washington’s resolve about PA reform. Hence, U.S. officials should make clear that Shtayyeh’s replacement needs to be independent and empowered. They should also note that U.S. pressure to reform will not end just because a new prime minister is appointed. In the longer term, rehabilitating the PA requires a more comprehensive and ambitious approach, and this starts with rejuvenating its political leadership. The blueprint for such an approach was first suggested by President George W. Bush in a 2002 speech outlining a political horizon for Israeli-Palestinian peace and the steps needed for its realization. The most important steps were clear: establishing a new Palestinian leadership and hitting a series of reform benchmarks. These proposals provided a political umbrella for a U.S.-led diplomatic process that culminated in the “Quartet Roadmap” and the only serious PA reform effort to date, spearheaded by then-prime minister Salam Fayyad. For such an approach to succeed today, U.S. leadership is necessary but not sufficient. PA leaders will likely try to blunt American pressure by seeking support from other foreign donors. The Biden administration must therefore ensure that key regional and international stakeholders are on board with the above approach and conveying a similar message to the PA.
*Ghaith al-Omari is the Gilbert Foundation Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute and a former advisor to the PA.

Leaving Iraq May Be Washington’s Wisest Choice
David Schenker/The Washington Institute/February 27/2024
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/127404/127404/
Most forces could likely be withdrawn or moved to the Kurdistan Region without harming U.S. interests—in fact, Washington might have more leverage in Baghdad without a troop presence.
In retaliation for the killing of three U.S. soldiers in Jordan in late January, the United States launched two sets of airstrikes against Iranian-backed militias in Iraq earlier this month. While some in Washington criticized the airstrikes as performative and widely telegraphed, the strikes—which targeted an Iraqi Shiite militia designated as a terrorist group by the United States—were a significant departure from the Biden administration’s longstanding restraint vis-a-vis Iran’s client forces in Iraq. As appropriate and overdue as the strikes against Iran’s proxies in Iraq were, they are generating significant political backlash in Baghdad, with unknown consequences for the U.S. military presence in Iraq.
Since the Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israel, U.S. forces and diplomatic personnel in Iraq and Syria have been attacked nearly 180 times by Iran-backed militias that honeycomb the Hashd—also known as the Popular Mobilization Forces, a network of more than 75 paramilitary groups that are part of the Iraqi military. In an effort to deescalate with Tehran and avoid diplomatic complications with Baghdad—and given the absence of American fatalities before the Jan. 28 attack—the Biden administration had acted with restraint. If it responded at all, it would typically retaliate against targets in Syria. On Feb. 2, however, U.S. forces hit 85 targets in Iraq and Syria, including two militia bases in Iraq’s Anbar Province, and on Feb. 5 assassinated a top leader of Kataib Hezbollah—the group responsible for the Jordan attack—in a drone attack in downtown Baghdad.
The U.S. strikes elicited a strong response in Iraq from friend and foe alike. Predictably, militia leaders and Iraqi allies of Iran have strongly condemned the strikes. But Iraqi government denunciations of the United States—and statements of support for the Hashd militias—have been equally forceful. The office of Iraqi Prime Minister Mohamed Shia Sudani described U.S. operations on Feb. 2 as an “act of aggression against Iraq’s sovereignty,” and characterized Hashd soldiers killed by the U.S. for their role in attacking U.S. forces as “martyrs.” Sudani also visited wounded militiamen in the hospital, wished them a “speedy recovery,” and declared three days of mourning.
At the same time, the Iraqi government issued a statement on X (formerly known as Twitter) accusing U.S. forces and the international coalition against the Islamic State of “endangering security and stability in Iraq.” Iraqi Armed Forces spokesman Major General Yehia Rasool went further, stating that U.S. actions that “jeopardize civil peace” would compel the Iraqi government to “terminate the mission of this coalition,” which “threatens to entangle Iraq in the cycle of conflict.” This sentiment was echoed by Sudani’s own Iran-backed political bloc, known as the Coordination Framework, which asked the government to end the international coalition presence.
To be sure, demands for an end to the U.S. military presence in Iraq are not new. Since the Trump administration adopted its maximum pressure campaign against Iran in 2018 and the subsequent territorial defeat of the Islamic State in Iraq in 2019, Hashd militias have been targeting U.S. personnel in Iraq in hopes of compelling a withdrawal. The intensity of anti-U.S. attacks has ebbed and flowed—spiking after the assassination of Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Qassem Soleimani and diminishing after the reclassification of U.S. troops from “combat” to “train and equip” forces—but the threat has been persistent.
Through it all, the safety of U.S. soldiers—deployed in Iraq at the invitation of the Iraqi government as part of the international anti-Islamic State coalition—as well as American diplomats has been jeopardized not only by the militias, but by the inaction of the Iraqi government, which has demonstrated neither the will nor the ability to protect U.S. personnel. Sadly, this is understandable. Not only are the Hashd militias on the Iraqi government payroll, but some of these constituent militias—including U.S. designated terrorist organizations Asaib Ahl al Haq and Kataib Hezbollah—even sit in Sudani’s government coalition as his political partners.
Last month, Sudani announced that his government would soon commence negotiations with Washington to end the coalition presence in Iraq. It remains unclear whether Sudani himself favors a coalition pullout or, as an advisor told Reuters, his statement was merely intended to “appease angry parties within the governing Shi’ite coalition.” Only a year ago, Sudani expressed concern about the spillover of terrorism from Syria, where the Islamic State remains active—opining in a Wall Street Journal interview that “we need the foreign forces.” No doubt the combination of Israel’s war against Hamas and the latest U.S. airstrikes on Iraqi soil have raised the political cost for Sudani of supporting the continued coalition presence.
If Sudani really does want U.S. forces to remain in Iraq, however, he has a strange way of showing it. In December, U.S. Ambassador to Iraq Alina Romanowski praised Sudani and his administration for apprehending three individuals responsible for a rocket attack directed at the U.S. Embassy. It was a rare occasion in which Sudani arrested perpetrators of violence against Americans.
While Sudani has criticized the recent U.S. retaliatory strikes in Iraq, he appears not to hold the same contempt for the Hashd, employees of the state who have targeted American military and civilian personnel for many years, purportedly in contravention of Baghdad’s wishes. These unprovoked attacks by the Hashd are, at minimum, crimes under Iraqi law—if not violations of Iraqi sovereignty to the degree that the militias answer to Iran. And despite the government’s reluctance to act—due to fear of the political cost or Iranian reprisal—killers of American soldiers are not immune from retribution just because they reside, unpunished by local authorities, on Iraqi soil.
The United States has devoted significant blood and treasure to Iraq, and the disposition of the Iraqi state remains of great interest to Washington. In February, the Iraqi parliament scheduled a session to vote on the continued U.S. presence, but it didn’t achieve a quorum to convene. Baghdad may eventually decide it is time for the United States and the coalition to depart. Iraq can make that decision and manage the state’s ongoing Islamic State threat on its own. Even if Sudani’s government doesn’t push the coalition out, however, a substantial U.S. military presence has clearly become untenable.
Twenty years after the invasion of Iraq, it’s time for the Biden administration to start thinking about how best to downsize the U.S. military footprint in Iraq. The United States isn’t leveraging its presence in Iraq to push back on expanding Iranian influence in Baghdad or to interrupt Tehran’s line of communication to its proxy militia Hezbollah in Lebanon. And while U.S. troops in Iraqi Kurdistan serve as a critical node of logistical support for counter-Islamic State forces in Syria, this presence may also no longer be necessary if and when Washington withdraws its small military contingent in Syria. Even if U.S. troops remain in Syria, Washington may be able to leave behind a small, residual presence in the Iraqi Kurdish region to support this counter-terrorism mission.
Outside the Kurdistan contingent, there is less and less utility in the ongoing U.S. military deployment in Iraq. To be sure, a precipitous, chaotic Afghanistan-style withdrawal from Iraq would be damaging to U.S. credibility. So, too, would a departure under fire. Leaving Iraq could also reinforce a pernicious regional perception of U.S. military retrenchment in the shadow of the pivot to Asia. Worse, the enormous U.S. American Embassy in Baghdad would be even more vulnerable to attack absent nearby U.S. forces, a very real concern given the Iraqi government’s penchant for ignoring its Geneva Convention obligation to defend diplomatic facilities.
But the coalition’s counter-Islamic State operation in Iraq is largely complete, and the continued presence of U.S. forces is doing little to prevent Iranian progress toward establishing hegemony over Iraq. Meanwhile, U.S. forces there present Iran and its local client militias with proximate targets—or perhaps more accurately, hostages in all but name. A lighter, consolidated footprint could help mitigate that threat, while still maintaining sufficient capabilities should the Iraqi military elect to continue bilateral military engagement, including routine joint exercises.
Paradoxically, moving the majority of U.S. troops out of harm’s way in Iraq could put Washington in a better position vis-a-vis the Iranian-dominated Iraqi government—especially if troops remain in Kurdistan, where the United States is still welcome. Unburdened by concerns about force protection, Washington would be freer to engage Iraq about its relationship with Iran, sanctions violations, and endemic corruption. While a stable and sovereign Iraq remains a U.S. priority, Washington will have to rely on other tools of national power—particularly economic leverage—to press its interests in Iraq going forward. A phase-out or downsizing of Washington’s longstanding troop presence does not imply the end of U.S. military engagement with Iraq, U.S. retrenchment from the region, or acquiescence to Iranian regional hegemony.
*David Schenker is the Taube Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute and director of its Rubin Program on Arab Politics. This article was originally published on the Foreign Policy website.