Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on February 23-24/2024
Abu Arz . Etiene Saqr, Exposes a Scandal Involving a French Proposal aimed at facilitating the return of Syrian refugees to their homeland in exchange for Lebanon agreeing to settle Palestinian refugees on its soil.
Israel kills 3 paramedics, Hezbollah official in Lebanon
Israeli FM warns UN Security Council that if it doesn’t act against Hezbollah, Israel will
Mikati calls off Cabinet session as retirees protest salaries
Hezbollah attacks Israeli regional council after 3 killed in Blida
Health ministry condemns Israeli strike that killed 2 medics in Blida
Report: French-Qatari summit to discuss situation in south, army support
Netanyahu sends 'message' to Hezbollah
Syria complains to Lebanon over British-built border towers
Kiryat Shmona a ghost town as specter of war looms
Lebanon's public sector: Struggles with billions in salary costs
Watchtowers on the borders: What prompted Syrian authorities to protest?
Arab Tourism Organization designate Kfardebian as the Arab Winter Resort Capital 2024
Syrian objection to the "British Towers"... Did Lebanon receive the memorandum?

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on February 23-24/2024
An Israeli attack ignites the fuse in Damascus: Several explosions hit the Syrian capital
Israeli spy chief in Paris for Gaza ceasefire talks
Netanyahu unveils plan for Gaza’s future post-Hamas
Hamas awaiting new truce proposal from mediators’ talks with Israel
2 dead in Israeli drone strike on car in occupied West Bank
Hamas' Haniyeh leaves Egypt after cease-fire talks in Cairo
Day 5 at ICJ hearing: Oman says Israel must immediately end occupation of Palestinian territory
UN agency for Palestinian refugees at ‘breaking point’: chief
US targets dozens of entities from China, UAE and Turkey for helping Russia
U.N. rights chief deplores 'entrenched impunity' in Israel-Hamas war
Israel plans to build 3,300 new settlement homes. It says it's a response to a Palestinian attack
Hungary to Allow Sweden Into NATO Following Jet Fighter Deal
Iraq announces reopening of a key oil refinery a decade after it was stormed by the Islamic State
White House accuses House Speaker of aiding Iran in latest Ukraine aid push
Sudan’s warring sides commit abuses, including strikes on fleeing civilians, UN report says
Turkiye, Somalia to deepen military bonds after historic deal

Titles For The Latest English LCCC  analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources on February 23-24/2024
Palestinian Leaders Have Brought a Nakba to Their People/Khaled Abu Toameh/Gatestone Institute./February 23, 2024
If the US wants peace it must back up its words with teeth/Daoud Kuttab/Arab News/February 23, 2024
Another year of misery coming for the Afghan people/Luke Coffey/Arab News/February 23, 2024
Gulf’s evolving ties with Iraqi Kurdistan signal a strategic shift/Sinem Cengiz/Arab News/February 23, 2024
Ukraine: Putin’s Mixed Messages/Amir Taheri/ Asharq Al-Awsat/February 23/2024
From War to Peace in the Middle East? Observations from a Regional Tour/Robert Satloff/Washington Institute/February 23/2024
Cairo’s Fears as it Faces an Israeli Incursion in Rafah: Confrontation and Radicalization/Mohamed Farid, Mohamed Maher/Washington Institute/February 23/2024

Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on February 23-24/2024
Abu Arz . Etiene Saqr, Exposes a Scandal Involving a French Proposal aimed at facilitating the return of Syrian refugees to their homeland in exchange for Lebanon agreeing to settle Palestinian refugees on its soil.
February 23/2024
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/127317/127317/
Statement issued by the Guardians of the Cedars Party - Lebanese National Movement
A scandalous development...
On February 8, the Al-Akhbar newspaper published a report citing a Palestinian source stating, "France has proposed facilitating the return of Syrian refugees to their country in exchange for Lebanon's agreement to resettle Palestinian refugees on its land."
This news, if proven true, reveals the underlying intentions of French politics towards Lebanon and exposes the following facts:
This news implies that the French government is capable of facilitating the return of Syrian refugees to their country. This raises the question: Why has the "compassionate mother" so far refused to repatriate them to alleviate this deadly burden on our afflicted nation, inundated with a flood of refugees whose numbers now rival its own population?
It also suggests that the security obstacle preventing their return to their country has been removed. So, what then is the reason behind the insistence of the United Nations, the international community, and France on keeping them on Lebanese soil?
This French offer presents us as Lebanese with two equally dire options: either accept the resettlement of tens of thousands of Palestinian refugees, leading to demographic destabilization and the collapse of our entity, or let tens of millions of Palestinians and Syrians remain on our land, leading to the disintegration of our entity.
All of this leads us to believe that the notion of the "compassionate mother," which has long appealed to the sentiments of the Lebanese, has fallen. France is no longer seen as the protector of Lebanon and advocate for its national rights.
The major lesson we must learn is based on the principle that there are no permanent friendships between states, only permanent interests. Large countries manipulate the destinies of small countries according to their whims and interests, necessitating that small nations build their own political, military, economic, and social strength, and defend their interests and entity with the breasts of their sons and daughters... Only then will they command respect in the world and be capable of establishing friendly relations with large countries on the basis of reciprocity and common interests rather than shared emotions.
In conclusion, the fate of small countries is to remain strong continuously, and not to weaken under the threat of extinction, for there is no place for the weak in this ruthless world.
Labbayka Lebanon,
Etiene Saqr - Abu Arz
(Free translation from Arabic by: Elias Bejjani)

Israel kills 3 paramedics, Hezbollah official in Lebanon
NAJIA HOUSSARI/Arab News/February 23, 2024
BEIRUT: Israel killed a top Hezbollah official and three paramedics affiliated with the group in airstrikes on Thursday. Hassan Mahmoud Saleh, a missile unit commander, was killed in the town of Kafr Rumman. The paramedics, from the Hezbollah-affiliated Islamic Health Authority, were killed in the town of Blida. The assassination of Saleh was Israel’s third high-profile strike on top officials belonging to the Axis of Resistance in Lebanon. It follows the killing of Hamas leader Sheikh Saleh Al-Arouri and seven others in Beirut in January, and the killing of Ali Al-Debs, along with civilians, a week ago in Nabatiyeh.
The airstrike targeted the top floor of a building in a residential neighborhood on the Kafr Rumman-Marjayoun Highway, killing Saleh and one other person, and wounding three people. The Israeli airstrike on the Civil Defense Center of the Islamic Health Authority in Blida on Thursday night led to the destruction of the building, with debris removal continuing until Friday morning. Hezbollah mourned the three paramedics killed in the strike: Hussein Mohammed Khalil from the town of Baraachit, and Mohammed Yaacoub Ismail and Mohammed Hassan from Blida. Social media videos showing the funeral processions revealed the extent of material devastation to local neighborhoods as a result of Israeli bombardment. The funeral procession was attended by a crowd of Hezbollah supporters. A security source monitoring field developments in southern Lebanon said: “Both Hezbollah and the Israeli army possess a dangerous information bank, with advanced tracking technology for the Israeli side.
“Hezbollah cadre Wissam Al-Tawil was targeted by a drone over a month ago in his town of Kherbet Selem immediately upon his return, and in return, Hezbollah targeted Israeli military positions.”Hezbollah said: “In response to the attack on the civil defense center in Blida, it targeted, through an aerial attack with two drones, the headquarters of the Regional Council in Kiryat Shmona and accurately hit them.” ‏The southern Lebanese border area came under Israeli attack on Friday morning. The town of Wazzani was targeted by gunfire and artillery, leading to the wounding of a Lebanese soldier and damage to homes and livestock farms. While Blida mourned the three dead paramedics, the Israeli army opened fire on the town’s cemeteries, where residents were digging graves. Israeli artillery hit the outskirts of Halta Farm, the forests of Kfarchouba, Kfarhamam and Jabal Al-Labouneh, as well as the outskirts of Naqoura on the coast.Meanwhile, the Israeli Army announced “the conclusion of intensive training for warships equipped with missiles at sea in the north of the country.”Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz informed the UN Security Council presidency that his country “will enforce security on its northern borders militarily if the Lebanese government does not implement Resolution 1701 and prevent attacks from its borders on Israel.”Katz’s statement also included unprecedented details about Iran’s transfer of weapons to Hezbollah via Syria, an apparent violation of Resolution 1701.
His comments appeared to signal the possibility of Israel launching a full-scale war on Lebanon. Katz called on the Security Council to “demand that the government of Lebanon fully implement Resolution 1701 and ensure that the area up to the Litani River is free from military presence, assets or weapons.”

Israeli FM warns UN Security Council that if it doesn’t act against Hezbollah, Israel will
Naharnet/February 23, 2024
Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz has sent a letter to the United Nations Security Council regarding the situation on Israel’s shared border with Lebanon in which he decried that Iran has been transferring weapons to Hezbollah in violation of Resolution 1701, Israel’s Channel 12 has reported. In the letter, Katz alleges that Iran is transferring weapons via land, air and sea, and details the exact components that are being transferred and what they are being used for. According to Katz, the weapons are moved from Iran to Iraq and from there they are smuggled into Syria. At that point, they are transferred across the border to Lebanon, he says. To back up his claims, Katz provided the U.N. with the “exact dates” of recent transfers. “The Security Council must also call on the Lebanese government to fully implement its decisions, take responsibility and prevent attacks from its territory against Israel, and ensure that the area up to the Litani River is free of military presence, assets or weapons,” Katz wrote. “Israel reaffirms its fundamental right to do whatever it needs within international law to protect its citizens from these heinous violations,” he added.

Mikati calls off Cabinet session as retirees protest salaries
Naharnet/February 23, 2024
A cabinet session was called off Friday after retired members of the armed forces blocked the entrances leading to the Grand Serail in downtown Beirut. The retirees gathered at Beirut's Riad al-Solh Square to protest their low salaries, demanding their salaries be discussed in the session. Cabinet was going to discuss in the session Friday the salaries of the public sector employees, after incentives were solely given to the Finance Ministry employees, enraging other public sector employees. "I was surprised by the escalation in the street today, and to avoid a clash, I postponed today’s session," Mikati said, adding that he was planning to discuss the employees' incentives in the session. Finance Ministry workers went on a strike Thursday after careteaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati decided to freeze their productivity bonuses. Mikati said the bonuses would be frozen until all public sector salaries are discussed in a cabinet session. "We are committed to giving everyone their rights, but we have spending limits," Mikati said, warning against the Finance Ministry employees' strike. All public sector employees, including the members of the armed forces, get paid in Lebanese pounds. Their salaries have become too low to cover basic expenses while grocery stores and other businesses are now pricing their goods in dollars.

Hezbollah attacks Israeli regional council after 3 killed in Blida
Naharnet/February 23, 2024
Hezbollah attacked Friday with two suicide drones the headquarters of the Upper Galilee Regional Council in Kiryat Shmona, in response to an overnight strike that killed a Hezbollah fighter and two paramedics. Hezbollah had earlier announced the death of one of its fighters and two affiliated paramedics in a drone strike on the Hezbollah-affiliated Islamic Health Committee in the southern border town of Blida overnight. The strike also caused "the destruction of the health center as well as a number of ambulances". The Israeli army said late Thursday that it had identified fighters "entering a Hezbollah military compound in the area of Blida". "Fighter jets were scrambled and struck the compound where the terrorists were identified," it said in a statement. Hezbollah said the attack on Kiryat Shmona was in response to Blida's strike on the civil defense center and other "attacks on villages and civilian homes". The night before, Hezbollah also fired rockets at an Israeli barracks in response to the Blida attack, but did not announced any casualties at the time. Two other Hezbollah fighters were also killed Thursday in an Israeli drone strike on a residential building in Kfar Rumman, near the southern city of Nabatiyeh, around 12 kilometers from the border. Hezbollah retaliated with rocket fire, including "dozens of Katyusha rockets" at two Israeli barracks, later calling one of the two fighters killed a "commander" in a funeral notice. A Lebanese security source, requesting anonymity as they were not authorized to speak to the media, said the commander was involved in Hezbollah's "rocket capabilities". On Friday, a Lebanese army soldier was wounded in al-Wazzani as the Israeli army targeted the border town with heavy machine-gun fire and artillery shells. Israeli artillery also shelled the southern border towns of Yaroun and Blida while warplanes carried out an airstrike on Kfarkila. The escalating violence on Israel's northern border has sparked fears of another full-blown war between Israel and Hezbollah like that of 2006. Since October, at least 273 people have been killed on the Lebanese side, most of them Hezbollah fighters but also including 42 civilians, according to an AFP tally. On the Israeli side, 10 soldiers and six civilians have been killed, according to the Israeli army. Last week, Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah vowed that Israel would pay "with blood", after 10 civilians, including seven members of one family, were killed in Lebanon's largest single-day death toll so far. Five Hezbollah fighters were also killed. On Wednesday, an Israeli strike killed a woman and a girl, prompting retaliatory fire from Hezbollah.

Health ministry condemns Israeli strike that killed 2 medics in Blida
Agence France Presse/February 23, 2024
The health ministry condemned Friday the "direct" attack on a civilian health center, after two paramedics affiliated with Hezbollah and one of the group's fighters were killed in an Israeli strike on the southern border town of Blida. The ministry called on the international community to hold Israel to account for its "dangerous violations". The Israeli army had struck Hezbollah's civil defense center in Blida, amid near-daily cross-border fire between the arch foes since the Israeli war on Gaza broke out on October 7. The Hezbollah-affiliated Islamic Health Committee said two of its paramedics were killed in a "direct" Israeli attack on a civil defense centre in Blida, while Hezbollah also announced the death of one of its fighters. The Islamic Health Committee said the attack caused "the destruction of the health centre as well as a number of ambulances". In retaliation, Hezbollah said it launched a drone attack on northern Israel on Friday, after also announcing rocket fire the night before. Since October, at least 276 people have been killed on the Lebanese side, most of them Hezbollah fighters but also including 44 civilians, according to an AFP tally. On the Israeli side, 10 soldiers and six civilians have been killed, according to the Israeli army. Last month, Hezbollah said an Israeli strike killed two affiliated medics in south Lebanon's Hanin, calling it a "blatant attack".

Report: French-Qatari summit to discuss situation in south, army support
Naharnet/February 23, 2024
French President Emmanuel Macron and Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad will hold a summit on February 27, media reports said. “The commanders of the French and Qatari armies will participate in a part of the summit alongside Lebanese Army Commander General Joseph Aoun,” the Nidaa al-Watan newspaper reported on Friday. The summit “will focus on the security situation in the (Lebanese) south and means to support the army, in compensation for the Paris conference which has been postponed,” the daily added.

Netanyahu sends 'message' to Hezbollah
Naharnet/February 23, 2024
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with soldiers of the Israeli army’s Alpinist Unit and the 188th Armored Brigade on Mount Hermon on Thursday, where he discussed Israel’s goals on its norther front. “In the south (of Israel), we have one simple goal -- total victory,” his office quoted him as saying. “We are on the way to the elimination of Hamas and the release of our hostages. We will not rest until we achieve total victory,” he added. “In the north, we have a simple goal -- to return the (displaced) residents. To bring back the residents, we need to bring back the feeling of security, and to bring back the feeling of security, we need to bring back security, which we will do,” he continued. Netanyahu stressed that Israel is ready to restore security to the north through any means necessary and that if it cannot be done through diplomacy or politics, it will be done through force. “In any case, Hezbollah should understand -- we will restore security. I hope that they receive this message,” he added.

Syria complains to Lebanon over British-built border towers
Naharnet/February 23, 2024
After “years of monitoring the U.S. and British activities on the Lebanese-Syrian border,” the Syrian government has decided to send an official letter to the Lebanese government regarding “the towers that are spread along the border, from the mouth of the Grand River in the north to beyond the Rashaya region in the Bekaa,” al-Akhbar newspaper reported on Friday. The letter, delivered by the Syrian foreign ministry to its Lebanese counterpart, describes the British-constructed towers as “a threat to Syrian national security,” the daily said. According to the British embassy in Lebanon, the joint border project has reinforced the authority of the Lebanese state along its land border with Syria where Four Land Border Regiments from the Lebanese Army have been deployed from the North in Arida to the south in Jebel Al Sheikh. The Syrian letter decries that the border towers contain “sensitive surveillance and spy equipment” that “cover areas deep into Syrian territory and collect information about the Syrian interior.”“The information resulting from these equipment reaches the hands of the British and the Israeli enemy benefits from the information to bomb Syrian territory and carry out strikes deep inside Syria,” the letter charges, according to al-Akhbar. Sources close to the British embassy meanwhile told the daily that “the embassy is proud of the continued British support for the Lebanese Army and the land border regiments, which have contributed to the protection of the Lebanese border with Syria.” “Through the watch towers, the army has managed to locate and prevent activities that include smuggling,” the sources added, without commenting on the letter’s content.

Kiryat Shmona a ghost town as specter of war looms
Agence France Presse/February 23, 2024
Kiryat Shmona, in the hills of Israel's far north, is virtually empty, with few shops open and mostly military traffic on the roads to and from bases up the valley near the Lebanese border. On the streets, cats seem to outnumber pedestrians but down a deserted lane a handful of call center workers at a telecoms firm are gathered at the open windows of their office kitchen. Coffees and mobile telephones in hand, they peer out, as if looking for signs of life. "I've never seen Kiryat Shmona like this," said Hosam Willie, a technical support team leader at the firm. "It's like a ghost town," he told AFP. "It reminds me of Covid times. But at least then you saw people walking outside or on their balconies. Now there's nobody."Since Hamas' deadly attack on southern Israel on October 7, Israel’s focus has firmly been on its war with the Palestinian militants in the Gaza Strip. But more than 200 kilometers to the north, the Israeli military is steadily preparing itself in case of war with Hamas' Iran-backed ally Hezbollah in Lebanon. Cross-border rocket attacks and retaliatory air strikes have become an almost daily occurrence for more than four months. Six civilians have been killed on the Israeli side of the border, according to the military. In Lebanon, 44 civilians have been killed, according to an AFP tally. The deadly exchanges have prompted most people in communities on both sides of the heavily fortified border to leave. For Willie and his colleagues, the fear of a second front opening in the north meant working from home for two months -- until they were given the option to come back to the office in December. Some have decided to stay away, doing their jobs from behind a computer in Tiberias, down the valley on the western shore of the Sea of Galilee, or in Jerusalem, Tel Aviv and even as far away as Eilat in the far south.
Uncertainty
Willie decided to come in to the office, and makes his way past military checkpoints from his village in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights away to the east, to break the monotony and isolation of remote-working. Yet even though there is work to do, assisting customers with troublesome internet connections or phone issues, the threat of war weighs heavily on everyone's minds. "We don't know if they will go to war. Nobody knows... The waiting is really hard," said Willie, a father of two young boys. "It's constantly on our minds," agreed Miliah Hasbani, a 27-year-old call center technician who has been making the 100-kilometer round trip from Tiberias to Kiryat Shmona for the past four months. "At least when I'm here in the office it's more normal."For the employees, the decision to stay in the area is often a practical one such as responsibilities towards elderly parents and wider family. Others say they simply do not want to be stuck in a hotel room with their families elsewhere in the country while the uncertainty persists. "It's a much better atmosphere at work," said Hasbani. "We need to see people." On Thursday, Kiryat Shmona was hit again by several rockets fired from Lebanon, the Israeli army said. No injuries were reported but it was an explosive reminder of the threat from across the hills, despite the deceptive calm. At the office, the employees’ hope is that the threat will pass, the uncertainty will lift and life will return to normal. "The only good thing is the parking is free at the moment," said Willie. "We can park wherever we want."

Lebanon's public sector: Struggles with billions in salary costs
LBCI/February 23, 2024
The challenges facing Lebanon's public sector can be outlined in two numbers: $5.6 billion, the cost of public sector salaries in 2019, and $1 billion, the projected cost for 2024, encompassing both active-duty and retired military and security personnel.
The difference between these numbers amounts to approximately $5 billion between 2019 and 2024. This disparity has its pros and cons. On the positive side, about $5 billion was being paid in Lebanese lira, with most of it being converted to dollars, which in turn were used to import goods, boosting Lebanon's external trade. However, the negatives revolve around the decreasing incomes of the public sector, which have fallen far below the minimum living standards in Lebanon. The problem is that if public sector incomes and salaries are corrected in Lebanese lira, with increases, it could recreate a scenario similar to the wage scale and ranks series that played a fundamental role in Lebanon's economic collapse. If these salaries are not adjusted, a significant part of the public sector will face a genuine livelihood catastrophe. Faced with this dilemma, the Lebanese government, the Banque du Liban (BDL), and the banks are tossing responsibilities back and forth among themselves.

Watchtowers on the borders: What prompted Syrian authorities to protest?
LBCI/February 23, 2024
Since 2010, Lebanon's military centers equipped with watchtowers and thermal cameras, manned by Lebanese troops, have lined the eastern border with Syria. These centers, primarily funded by Britain, were established to control smuggling and illegal infiltration operations across the Lebanese-Syrian border.
However, after 14 years, Syria has officially protested against these towers, sending a memorandum through its foreign ministry to its Lebanese counterpart. According to the memorandum obtained by LBCI, Syrian authorities allege that these towers, equipped with sophisticated, modern cameras and operated by British and Lebanese officers, extend deep into Syrian territory, providing Israel with reconnaissance data. The document describes the towers as espionage tools used by Israel to gather intelligence within Syrian borders, as they are allegedly directly linked to the British embassy in Lebanon. What prompted the Syrian authorities to protest after all these years? Syria cites national security concerns in its protest, claiming that under international law, it has the right to establish watchtowers on the border with Lebanon, either through agreement with Lebanon or unilaterally in case of war between the two countries. International law allows it to establish watchtowers at zero distance from the Lebanese towers. LBCI contacted the British Embassy, which expressed pride in supporting the Lebanese army, particularly its border units, which have successfully detected smuggling operations. It confirmed that support to the watchtowers is strictly limited to training, capacity building, and equipment and that they are used only by the Lebanese army. Lebanese sources familiar with the matter emphasized that only the Lebanese army manages these centers and towers, with data connected to the Defense Ministry, dismissing claims of towers linked to embassies as mere allegations. The Syrian request's motives remain unclear after 14 years. Could it be related to reports of a British proposal to establish similar towers on the border with Israel?

Arab Tourism Organization designate Kfardebian as the Arab Winter Resort Capital 2024
LBCI/February 23, 2024
Located in the Keserwan-Jbeil Governorate, and just about an hour drive from the Beirut airport, Kfardebian was declared ‘’the Arab Winter Resort Capital’’ for the year 2024 by the Arab Tourism Organization. One of Kfardebian's renowned towns, stretching from Wadi El Salib to the peak of Mzaar, offers a picturesque destination for visitors seeking memorable experiences throughout the year. Kfardebian includes: Faqra neighborhood, Aayoun El Siman, archaeological area, and the town center which is divided into: the castle, the village, and the mountains of Wadi El Salib.
The Arab Tourism Organization chose Lebanon out of 22 Arab countries for this designation since this town possesses the most extensive ski slopes in the Middle East. It has a diverse hospitality sector including hotels ranging from 3 to 5 stars, guesthouses, Airbnb, chalets, and youth hostels that accommodate skiing groups. Moreover, in Kfardebian, restaurants are diverse, offering Lebanese cuisine in its original form alongside foreign cuisines and restaurants that are part of international chains, every visitor has a wide choice. Besides, some of Lebanon's most prominent nightlife spots can be found in Kfardebian. Most importantly, it boasts hospitality and warmth of reception, which can be rarely found in any other place. Additionally, the area boasts significant archaeological sites, frequented by both Phoenician and Roman civilizations. The Faqra Temple, with its architectural marvels, is believed to have been constructed by Romans atop a Phoenician temple dating back thousands of years. Walking through the Faqra Temple, the limestone rocks stand out prominently, which are approximately 200 million years old and are only found in Faqra and nearby Baloue Balaa. This natural stone bridge, over 200 million years old, was sculpted by the flowing waters of Nabaa El Laban over time. Kfardebian's recognition will be commemorated Saturday afternoon with a special announcement broadcasted on LBCI.

Syrian objection to the "British Towers"... Did Lebanon receive the memorandum?
Markazia/February 24/2024
Central - After years of anticipation of American and British activity on the Lebanese-Syrian border, the Syrian government decided to send an official memorandum to the Lebanese government about the towers spread on the border, from the mouth of the Great River in the north to beyond the Rashaya area in the Bekaa, considering that the towers established by the British The four Lebanese Army land border regiments on the Syrian border are a “threat to Syrian national security.” In this context, Al-Markazia learned from an official source that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Expatriates received the Syrian memorandum, and after informing the Ministry of Defense and then the Army Command, it received the response from the concerned source in coordination with the palace departments and sent it as appropriate to the Syrian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. In this context, it learned "Central": The army leadership has not yet been informed of the text of the Syrian memorandum.

Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on February 23-24/2024
An Israeli attack ignites the fuse in Damascus: Several explosions hit the Syrian capital
Agencies/February 24/2024
The Syrian capital, Damascus, witnessed a series of explosions, shortly after an Israeli attack targeted a previously bombed site last February. According to local and international media, at least three explosions were heard in Damascus on Wednesday afternoon, after Israel launched an air attack on a building in the Kafr Sousse neighborhood of the capital, resulting in the death of two people. A witness reported that the force of the explosions that occurred in Damascus caused the windows of houses to shake, while the Syrian radio "Sham FM" reported hearing other explosions in the city, noting that Israeli shells fell in Mount Hermon near the border with Lebanon, at the same time as The country's air defenses intercepted a wave of missiles in the southern and southwestern Damascus countryside. These explosions come shortly after a new attack using several missiles launched by Israel on an apartment in the Kafr Sousse residential neighborhood in Damascus, killing at least two people and wounding another, in addition to causing material damage to the targeted building and neighboring buildings. According to what Agence France-Presse saw at the scene, the strike targeted a 9-storey building, with damage mainly concentrated on the fourth floor, where its facade was shattered. Cars parked near the building were also damaged. There have been no comments from the Israeli side yet, while the semi-official Iranian Student News Network reported that the attack did not result in the killing of any Iranian citizens or advisors. The official Syrian news agency, SANA, published pictures showing a fire that broke out in the targeted apartment, where firefighting teams worked to extinguish the fire, while security forces imposed a security cordon in the area. The Kafr Sousse neighborhood is considered one of the most prestigious neighborhoods in Damascus, and includes government institutions, military installations, and branches of the security services, in addition to an Iranian cultural center close to the targeted building, according to the Syrian Observatory. It was in this neighborhood, which is subject to tight security surveillance, that the military commander of the Lebanese Hezbollah group, Imad Mughniyeh, was assassinated in 2008. Damascus and its suburbs were subjected to similar Israeli strikes during this month, as Israeli air strikes on February 10 resulted in the killing of 3 people loyal to Tehran in a residential building. West of Damascus, while another raid on January 20 resulted in the killing of 5 people during a “meeting of leaders close to Iran” in the Mezzeh area, and Tehran later confirmed that Iranian military advisors were among the victims.

Israeli spy chief in Paris for Gaza ceasefire talks
Agence France Presse/February 23, 2024
An Israeli delegation led by the head of Israel's overseas intelligence agency arrived in Paris on Friday to "unblock" talks for a ceasefire in Gaza, an Israeli official said. Mossad director David Barnea will be joined in the French capital by his counterpart at the domestic Shin Bet security agency, Ronen Bar, Israeli media reported. A week-long ceasefire at the end of November saw the release of more than 100 hostages taken by Hamas militants and 240 Palestinian prisoners held by Israel. At the end of January, Barnea was in Paris with his U.S. and Egyptian counterparts as well as the prime minister of Qatar to discuss a new pause in fighting. A Hamas source confirmed the plan proposed a six-week pause in the conflict and the release of between 200 and 300 Palestinian prisoners in exchange for 35 to 40 hostages still held by Hamas. Since then, talks have also taken place in Egypt involving Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh. He left Cairo on Thursday evening, the Palestinian militants said. The talks focused in particular on an end to Israeli "aggression", the return of displaced people and a prisoner exchange. Hamas wants a complete ceasefire and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza but Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has dismissed the demands as "bizarre". He has said his government is open to a pause in the fighting but has vowed to press on until "total victory" and the complete destruction of Hamas. Netanyahu is also against the release of Palestinian prisoners who took part in Hamas attacks against Israel. While Haniyeh was in Cairo, U.S. Middle East envoy Brett McGurk was in Israel where he discussed an "extended pause" in the conflict "to get all of those hostages home," the White House said. On the eve of the Paris talks, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant indicated that Israel would "extend the authority given to our hostage negotiators." He did not elaborate. The current conflict began when Hamas attacked southern Israel on October 7, allegedly leaving more than 1,160 people dead according to Israel. Israel in response vowed to destroy Hamas and launched a military offensive that has left at least 29,514 people dead in the Gaza Strip ruled by the militants since 2007. Most of them are women and children, according to the health ministry in Gaza.

Netanyahu unveils plan for Gaza’s future post-Hamas
Richard Allen Greene and Elliott Gotkine, CNN/February 23, 2024
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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu unveiled a plan for the Gaza’s future post-Hamas, which includes the “complete demilitarization” of the enclave, closing off the territory’s southern border with Egypt, as well as the overhaul of Gaza’s civil administration and education systems.
CNN has obtained a copy of the plan, which Netanyahu presented to members of Israel’s security cabinet Thursday night. It was distributed as a basis for discussion, the prime minister’s office told CNN, in preparation of further talks, and comes after Netanyahu faced weeks of criticism for having no concrete plan for a postwar Gaza. The plan comes as Israel sent a negotiating team, led by Mossad Director David Barnea, to Paris on Friday to pursue talks over a potential ceasefire and hostage release deal that may put an end to the four-month long war. More than 29,000 people have been killed in Gaza since the war began, according to the ministry of health in the enclave. Hamas’ October 7 attack killed 1,200 people in Israel, according to Israeli authorities. A number of principles are outlined in the document, from changes on the security and civil levels to more long-term plans about who governs the territory. On the security file, the envisioned plan includes Israel closing off Gaza’s southern border with Egypt, giving Israel complete control of entry and exit from the enclave. At present, Egypt controls access to and from Gaza’s southern border via the Rafah crossing. Netanyahu’s plan says Israel will cooperate “as much as possible” with Egypt, in coordination with the United States. It is not clear whether Israel has obtained Egypt’s sign-off on that element of the plan, or any part of it. But an Israeli official told CNN that the plan was “aligned” with the US. There has been no immediate official US reaction to the proposal. The plan asserts, as Netanyahu has said before, that “Israel will have security control over the entire area west of Jordan,” which includes all of the West Bank and Israel, as well as Gaza. The Palestinians have long sought an independent state in the occupied West Bank, East Jerusalem and Gaza. Israel will be responsible for “realizing and overseeing” the demilitarization of the Strip, the plan says, except for what is required to maintain public order. On the civil level, Netanyahu details an overhaul of Gaza’s civil administration and education systems, including an apparent cut-off of funding from Qatar to Gaza – which a previous Netanyahu government approved and facilitated. The local entities running the civil service “will not be identified with countries or entities that support terrorism and will not receive payment from them,” the plan says. While it is likely a reference to Qatar, it is not clear if it would also apply to the Palestinian Authority, a revitalized version of which the US has said should run Gaza in the future. The Netanyahu plan also calls for “de-radicalization” in the education system, which Israel and its allies have long accused of promoting antisemitism and hatred of Israel. The plan repeats that Israel will work to shut down UNRWA, the main United Nations agency supporting Palestinian refugees, and work to replace it “with responsible international aid agencies.”Israel accuses about a dozen UNRWA employees of being directly involved in the October 7 Hamas attack. The agency employs about 13,000 people in Gaza. Finally, the plan reiterates Israel’s insistence that it will not be forced by the international community to recognize a Palestinian state, a possibility the United Kingdom and US President Joe Biden have begun to float. “Israel outright rejects international dictates regarding a permanent settlement with the Palestinians,” the Netanyahu outline says, asserting that recognition of a Palestinian state now would be “a huge reward to unprecedented terrorism.”
Is the plan realistic?
Many of the proposals are opposed by key parties. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has already rejected the idea of a buffer zone. Egypt has rejected the suggestion that Israel could control its border with Gaza. And the United Arab Emirates has said that without a clear roadmap towards an independent Palestinian State – ruled out by Netanyahu – it won’t help foot the bill for Gaza’s reconstruction. Netanyahu’s vow to eliminate UNRWA, the UN aid agency that supplies most international aid to Gaza, would have been difficult to achieve even before October 7. Now, as the UN warns that almost all of the population of Gaza is at risk of “imminent famine,” the task would be enormous. There is no mention in the plan of the Palestinian Authority, which administers parts of the occupied West Bank. Netanyahu has previously rejected the suggestion that it could take control of Gaza. It is not clear whether he would now accept a reconstituted version taking over – and it is far from clear this would be accepted by Palestinians, more of whom voted for Hamas in elections in 2006. For now, Netanyahu’s priority remains destroying Hamas and returning more than 100 hostages kidnapped on October 7 who remain in Gaza; getting hostage talks back on track is a key goal of the top delegation that Netanyahu sent to Paris on Friday. The US and others hope a deal will forestall a ground operation in Rafah that could push the death toll in Gaza to well above 30,000. Most observers believe that once the war is over, elections in Israel are inevitable, which Netanayhu and his allies are predicted to lose. But it is far from clear that a different leader – war cabinet member and former opposition leader Benny Gantz is touted as the favorite – would have much of a different vision for Gaza.

Hamas awaiting new truce proposal from mediators’ talks with Israel
REUTERS/AFP/February 23, 2024
CAIRO/RAFAH, Gaza Strip: Hamas wrapped up ceasefire talks in Cairo and is now waiting to see what mediators bring back from weekend talks with Israel, an official from the militant group said on Friday, in what appears to be the most serious push for weeks to halt the fighting.
Mediators have ramped up efforts to secure a ceasefire in Gaza, in the hope of heading off an Israeli assault on the Gaza city of Rafah where more than a million displaced people are sheltering at the southern edge of the enclave. An Israeli delegation led by the head of the country’s overseas intelligence agency arrived in Paris on Friday to “unblock” talks for a ceasefire in Gaza, an Israeli official said. Mossad director David Barnea will be joined in the French capital by his counterpart at the domestic Shin Bet security agency, Ronen Bar, Israeli media reported. Israel says it will attack the city if no truce agreement is reached soon. Washington has called on its close ally not to do so, warning of vast civilian casualties if an assault on the city goes ahead. Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh met Egyptian mediators in Cairo to discuss a truce this past week on his first visit since December. Israel is now expected to participate in talks this weekend in Paris with US, Egyptian and Qatari mediators. Two Egyptian security sources confirmed that Egyptian intelligence chief Abbas Kamel would head on Friday to Paris for the talks with the Israelis, after wrapping up talks with Hamas chief Haniyeh on Thursday. Israel has not publicly commented on the Paris talks. The Hamas official, who asked not to be identified, said the militant group did not offer any new proposal at the talks with the Egyptians, but was waiting to see what the mediators brought back from their upcoming talks with the Israelis. “We discussed our proposal with them (the Egyptians) and we are going to wait until they return from Paris,” the Hamas official said. The last time similar talks were held in Paris, at the start of February, they produced an outline for the first extended ceasefire of the war, approved by Israel and the United States. Hamas responded with a counterproposal, which Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu then rejected as “delusional.”Hamas, which is still believed to be holding more than 100 hostages seized in the Oct. 7 attack on Israel that precipitated the war, says it will free them only as part of a truce that ends with an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. Israel says it will not pull out until Hamas is eradicated. Late on Thursday, Netanyahu presented his security cabinet with an official plan for Gaza once the fighting stops. He emphasized that Israel expects to maintain security control over the enclave after destroying Hamas, and also sees no role for there for the Palestinian Authority (PA) based in the West Bank.Washington favors a role for a reformed PA. Two Palestinian officials familiar with the negotiations said Hamas has not changed its stance in the latest push to reach a deal, and still demands that a truce end with an Israeli pullout.
RAFAH UNDER FIRE
Israeli planes and tanks pounded areas across Gaza Strip overnight, residents and health officials said. The Gaza health ministry said 104 people had been killed and 160 others were wounded in Israeli military strikes in the past 24 hours. In Rafah, where over half of Gaza’s 2.3 million people are sheltering, an Israeli air strike on a house killed 10 people. Several other air strikes hit throughout the city, worsening fears by the displaced people of expanded Israeli ground operations. At a morgue in Rafah, a family knelt by the body of their child, killed by overnight Israeli strikes. They tenderly touched and stroked the small body through a shroud.Airstrikes also killed civilians overnight in Deir Al-Balah, in central Gaza, one of the few other areas yet to be stormed by the Israelis. In video obtained by Reuters, bereaved families crowded a hospital, where Ahmed Azzam held up the body of his dead baby son wrapped in a shroud, shouting: “You killed them Netanyahu. You killed this innocent child!“At least 29,514 Palestinians have been killed and 69,616 injured in Israeli strikes on Gaza since Oct.7, the Gaza health ministry said in a statement on Friday. Israel launched its months-long military campaign after militants from Hamas-ruled Gaza killed 1,200 people and took 253 hostages in southern Israel on Oct 7. In a summary of its operations in Gaza over the past 24 hours, the Israeli military said it had killed dozens of militants, located weapons and destroyed infrastructure in Khan Younis, western Khan Younis, central Gaza and Zaytoun in the north, where it also uncovered tunnel shafts.

2 dead in Israeli drone strike on car in occupied West Bank
Associated Press/February 23, 2024
A Palestinian man wounded in an Israeli drone strike on a car in the occupied West Bank died of his injuries, bringing the number of people killed in the attack to two. The two men, their bodies wrapped in the flags of the militant group Islamic Jihad, were buried Friday in the Jenin refugee camp. The Israeli military said one of those killed, identified as Yasser Hanoun, was about to carry out a shooting attack when the strike hit his car late Thursday. It alleged that Hanoun was previously involved in several shooting attacks targeting Israeli settlements and army posts. Violence has escalated in the West Bank since the start of the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, triggered by a deadly Hamas attack on southern Israel on Oct. 7. Since then, about 400 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli fire in the West Bank, most as part of near-daily arrest raids by troops searching for suspected militants.

Hamas' Haniyeh leaves Egypt after cease-fire talks in Cairo
Associated Press/February 23, 2024
Hamas says its political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, has left Egypt after holding talks with Egyptian officials about a possible cease-fire in the Gaza Strip and an exchange of hostages held by the militants for Palestinians imprisoned in Israel. The statement released early Friday by Hamas did not say whether Haniyeh’s talks with Egyptian intelligence chief Abbas Kamel about ways of ending the war, a hostage deal and the flow of aid to Gaza were successful or led to a breakthrough. The talks in Cairo came ahead of a high-level meeting expected over the weekend in Paris, where international mediators will present a new proposal. The United States, Egypt and Qatar have been struggling for weeks to find a formula that could halt Israel’s devastating offensive in Gaza, but now face an unofficial deadline as the Muslim holy month of Ramadan approaches. Israel seeks a phased deal, including a temporary pause in fighting in exchange for the release of some of the roughly 100 hostages still held by militants since the brutal Oct. 7 Hamas attack on southern Israel. Israel has vowed to keep fighting until Hamas is crushed. Hamas initially demanded to end the war, now in its fifth month, before hostages can be released. Hamas has said that it would release the Israeli hostages in return for the all Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails. Israel rejected that demand, and mediators have been working on a new deal.

Day 5 at ICJ hearing: Oman says Israel must immediately end occupation of Palestinian territory
ARAB NEWS/February 23, 2024
DUBAI: The International Court of Justice, the UN’s top court, on Friday continued its hearing from dozens of states and three international organizations who question the legality of the Israeli occupation of Palestinian territories. Representatives from countries including Qatar, Oman, Pakistan, Malaysia and the United Kingdom were expected to deliver their positions during the fourth day of the hearing at the ICJ, also known as the World Court. Speakers from the UAE, Egypt and Saudi Arabia have already demanded Israel end its occupation of the Palestinian territories, with the Kingdom’s envoy to the Netherlands Ziad Al-Atiyah stating Israel’s continued actions were legally indefensible. The hearing follows a request by the UN General Assembly for an advisory, or non-binding, opinion on the occupation in 2022. More than 50 states will present arguments until Feb. 26.Mutlaq Al-Qahtani, Qatar’s ambassador to Netherlands, has told the World Court that “Israel was waging a genocidal war on the people of Gaza”. “While all eyes are on Gaza, the situation in the West Bank is deteriorating,” Al-Qahtani commented. In the West Bank, “civilian casualties are not just collateral damage in Israeli attacks, they are the main target… Israel’s victims are often children.”Pakistan’s Minister for Law and Justice, Ahmed Irfan Aslam, said that while Israel’s annexation of Palestinian lands in East Jerusalem was de jure and the rest of territory was de facto, “the formal characterization matters little.”“Pakistan believes that the two-state solution must be the basis for peace,” the minister said in his remarks. As an occupying power, “Israel has disowned its basic duties. Its policies and practices of occupation denied the right of the Palestinian people to self-determination and amount to systematic racial discrimination and serious violations of international humanitarian law and human rights.”Oman’s ambassador to Netherlands Sheikh Dr. Abdullah bin Salim bin Hamad Al-Harthi, in his opening statements before the ICJ judges, said that the “international community has failed to assist the people of Palestine in having their own independent state.” The envoy also told ICJ judges to take into account the illegal annexation of Palestinian land and the obstruction of Palestinian right to self-determination. “Israel should immediately end the occupation of Palestinian territory,” he said. “The international community has an obligation to prevent the unlawful annexation of Palestinian land.”

UN agency for Palestinian refugees at ‘breaking point’: chief
AFP/February 23, 2024
UNITED NATIONS: The UN agency for Palestinian refugees warned Thursday it has reached a critical juncture as it struggles to cope with the war in Gaza. “It is with profound regret that I must now inform you that UNRWA has reached a breaking point,” chief Philippe Lazzarini said, as donors freeze funding, Israel exerts pressure to dismantle the agency and humanitarian needs soar. “The Agency’s ability to fulfill the mandate given through General Assembly resolution 302 is now seriously threatened,” he said in a letter to the assembly. That is the resolution under which the agency was founded in 1949, following the creation of Israel. UNRWA employs some 30,000 people working in the occupied territories, Lebanon, Jordan and Syria. Several countries — including the United States, Britain, Germany and Japan — have suspended funding to UNRWA in response to Israeli allegations that some of its staff participated in the October 7 attack on Israel. In an interview published over the weekend, Lazzarini said $438 million has been frozen — the equivalent of more than half of expected funding for 2024. He said Israel was waging a concerted effort to destroy UNRWA. The UN fired the employees accused by Israel and has begun an internal probe of UNRWA. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has also tasked an independent panel with assessing whether UNRWA acts neutrally in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Lazzarini asserted Thursday that Israel has provided no evidence against the 12 former employees it accuses, but 16 countries have suspended funding anyway. “I have cautioned donors and host countries that without new funding, UNRWA operations across the region will be severely compromised from March,” he said. He added: “I fear we are on the edge of a monumental disaster with grave implications for regional peace, security and human rights.”The war started after Hamas’s unprecedented October 7 attack which resulted in the deaths of about 1,160 people in Israel, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally of official figures. Hamas militants also took about 250 hostages — 130 of whom remain in Gaza, including 30 presumed dead, according to Israel. Israel’s retaliatory campaign has killed at least 29,410 people, mostly women and children, according to the latest count by Gaza’s health ministry.

US targets dozens of entities from China, UAE and Turkey for helping Russia
WASHINGTON (Reuters)/ February 23, 2024
The Biden administration said on Friday it has imposed new trade restrictions on 93 entities from Russia, China, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, Kyrgyzstan, India and South Korea for supporting Russia's war effort in Ukraine. The action, one day before the second anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, means companies will be placed on the Commerce Department's "Entity List," essentially banning U.S. shipments to them. Of the new entities listed, 63 were from Russia, 16 from Turkey, eight from China and four from the UAE. The Commerce Department said some of the companies were added for their roles in diverting controlled microelectronics to Russia’s military and intelligence authorities. The move is one element of the latest round of sanctions and export controls by the United States, partners and allies in response to Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine, which began on Feb. 24, 2022. The U.S. also announced it would impose other sanctions on over 500 targets over the war and the death of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny. Earlier this week, the European Union approved a 13th package of Ukraine-related sanctions against Russia, banning nearly 200 entities and individuals accused of helping Moscow procure weapons or of involvement in kidnapping Ukrainian children. “With today’s actions, we have now placed more than 900 parties on our Entity List for their role in Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine,” said Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Export Enforcement Matthew S. Axelrod. The entities listed include UAE-based Crynofist Aviation, which provides spare parts for airplanes. Russia has faced severe sanctions on its passenger airline fleet over the last two years and struggled to maintain and keep the planes in operation.
Crynofist did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

U.N. rights chief deplores 'entrenched impunity' in Israel-Hamas war
GENEVA (Reuters)/February 23, 2024
The United Nations human rights chief said on Friday that perpetrators of gross human rights violations in the conflict between Israel and Hamas must be held accountable. "The entrenched impunity that OHCHR (the U.N. rights agency) has reported on for many years cannot persist," High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Turk said in a report on the situation in Gaza and in the Israeli-occupied West Bank. He said that this impunity had contributed to violations that could amount to international crimes. Turk urged all parties to the conflict to "put an end to impunity and conduct prompt, independent, impartial, thorough, effective and transparent investigations" into alleged crimes under international law. He also called on them to implement a ceasefire on human rights and humanitarian grounds, to ensure full respect for international law, and to ensure accountability for violations and abuses. Last month, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in The Hague ordered Israel to prevent acts of genocide against Palestinians and do more to help civilians, although it stopped short of ordering a ceasefire as requested by South Africa, which brought the caethe plaintiff in the case. In separate proceedings, South Africa on Tuesday urged the court to issue a non-binding legal opinion that the Israeli occupation of Palestinian territories is illegal, arguing it would help efforts to reach a settlement.

Israel plans to build 3,300 new settlement homes. It says it's a response to a Palestinian attack
JERUSALEM (AP)/February 23, 2024
Israel plans to build more than 3,300 new homes in settlements in the Israeli-occupied West Bank in response to a fatal Palestinian shooting attack, a senior Cabinet minister said. The decision is bound to frustrate Washington at a time of growing tensions over the course of Israel's war on Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Israel's finance minister, far-right firebrand Bezalel Smotrich, announced the new settlement plans late Thursday, after three Palestinian gunmen opened fire on cars near the Maale Adumim settlement, killing one Israeli and wounding five. “The serious attack on Ma’ale Adumim must have a determined security response but also a settlement response," Smotrich wrote on X, formerly Twitter. “Our enemies know that any harm to us will lead to more construction and more development and more of our hold all over the country.”He said Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant participated in the discussion. The decision will put in motion approval processes for 300 new homes in the Kedar settlement and 2,350 in Maale Adumim. It will also advance previously approved construction of nearly 700 homes in Efrat. Once the war in Gaza is over, the Biden administration seeks eventual Palestinian governance in Gaza and the West Bank as a precursor to Palestinian statehood. It's an outcome opposed by Netanyahu and his right-wing government — and pushed farther from view, advocates say, as new settlement plans are advanced. “Instead of acting in order to prevent future horrible attacks such as of yesterday, the government of Israel is acting to deepen the conflict and the tensions,” said Hagit Ofran, from Israeli settlement watchdog group Peace Now. “The construction in settlements is bad for Israel, distancing us from peace and security,” he said. Consecutive Israeli governments have expanded settlements in east Jerusalem and the West Bank, war-won territories the Palestinians seek for a future state, along with Gaza. Construction has accelerated under Netanyahu’s current right-wing government, which includes settlers, including Smotrich, in key positions. Israel captured the West Bank, east Jerusalem and Gaza Strip in the 1967 Mideast war. Violence has escalated in the West Bank since the deadly Oct. 7 Hamas attack on southern Israel, which triggered Israel's war on the militant group. Since Oct. 7, Palestinian gunmen have carried out several deadly attacks on Israelis. Israel has held the West Bank under a tight grip — limiting movement and conducting frequent raids against what it says are militant targets. Palestinian health officials say 401 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli fire in the West Bank during that period.

Hungary to Allow Sweden Into NATO Following Jet Fighter Deal
Bloomberg/February 23, 2024
Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban confirmed that his country will remove the last obstacle to Sweden’s NATO accession after the Nordic country agreed to sell Gripen jet fighters to Budapest. The Hungarian parliament will take the “necessary decisions” to ratify the Nordic country’s NATO accession early next week, Orban said at a press conference with his Swedish counterpart Ulf Kristersson in the Hungarian capital on Friday. The agreement on fighter jets will expand Hungary’s fleet of Swedish-built Gripen fighters to 18 from 14, and it also helps rebuild ties between the two countries, according to the Hungarian premier. He has previously blamed delays in the ratification process on a lack of trust following Swedish criticism over the erosion of democracy in Hungary. Monday’s vote in Hungary’s parliament is the final approval needed for Sweden’s entry into the North Atlantic Treaty Organization — which will help the military alliance defend its eastern flank following Finland’s admission last April. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine two years ago spurred the two Nordic nations’ applications to join the bloc. Hungary’s lease agreement for 14 Gripens will expire in early 2026, and ownership will then be transferred to Budapest, according to a statement from the Swedish government. Under the new agreement, Saab AB will supply an additional 4 aircraft and Sweden will also provide support and logistics to the Hungarian air force until 2036.
The agreement on Friday marked a second time that discussions about jet fighters proved a necessary piece of the NATO puzzle for Sweden. When Turkey signed off on the Nordic country’s membership in January, it paved the way for a deal to buy F-16 warplanes from the U.S., and made Hungary the last holdout blocking Sweden’s accession. Orban, the leader who is closest to Russia in the European Union, earlier reiterated his calls to stop supporting what he sees as a doomed effort by Ukraine to fend off Russia’s attacks. A victory by Donald Trump in November’s US elections would help sway the NATO alliance toward that stance, Orban said in a radio interview Friday.

Iraq announces reopening of a key oil refinery a decade after it was stormed by the Islamic State
BAGHDAD (AP)/February 23, 2024
Iraq’s prime minister announced Friday the reopening of the Beiji refinery, the country’s largest, which had been shut down for a decade after being damaged in the battle against the Islamic State extremist group. Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani said in a statement that the refinery’s return to operation will enable Iraq to meet its oil derivative needs internally, saving billions of dollars annually, which he said “will be invested in other services and aspects of the economy.”“Iraq, with its production of more than 4 million barrels per day, is still importing oil derivatives,” al-Sudani said. With the reopening of Beiji, he added, “We are close to securing the country’s entire needs for derivatives, no later than the middle of the year.”The oil refinery in Beiji, 250 kilometers (155 miles) north of Baghdad, has not operated since the IS seized the town as part of its blitz across much of Iraq in the summer of 2014. The facility, which previously had production capacity of more than 300,000 barrels a day, was heavily damaged in the fighting that ensued as Iraqi forces battled to retake control of the strategic site. Much of the refinery’s equipment was looted. In August, al-Sudani announced the recovery of some 60 truckloads of supplies and equipment that had been stolen from the facility, which were found in Iraq’s semi-autonomous northern Kurdish region. The facility played a symbolic as well as strategic role in the battle against IS. Its reopening comes against the backdrop of Iraq’s negotiations for the withdrawal of U.S.-led coalition forces deployed to the country to fight the extremist group, and as Iraq has found itself in a precarious position amid regional tensions stoked by Israel’s war in Gaza. Since October, a group calling itself the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, a coalition of Iran-backed militias, has launched dozens of attacks on bases housing U.S. troops in Iraq and Syria, citing U.S. support for Israel. These attacks have subsided in recent weeks and discussions have resumed between Iraqi and U.S. officials to outline a withdrawal framework for the coalition forces.In January, Iraq’s Ministry of Electricity announced that it received a proposal from a Qatari company to invest in the nearby Beiji thermal station. The plan includes the development of six production units to generate 2,100 megawatts.

White House accuses House Speaker of aiding Iran in latest Ukraine aid push
WASHINGTON (Reuters)/February 23, 2024
The White House escalated its criticism of Republican U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson on Friday, accusing him of benefiting Iran and Russia by not putting a national security bill that gives aid to Ukraine up for a vote. Iran has provided Russia with a large number of powerful surface-to-surface ballistic missiles, six sources told Reuters this week, deepening the military cooperation between the two U.S.-sanctioned countries. Iran is "actively enabling Russia's war in Ukraine and its attacks against Ukrainian cities," deputy press secretary and senior communications adviser Andrew Bates said in a memo viewed by Reuters that will be distributed publicly Friday. "President Biden is standing up to Iran. But where is Speaker Johnson's supposed commitment not to 'appease Iran' in all this? Nowhere. Instead, his inaction is benefiting Putin and the Ayatollah," the memo says.
Top Biden administration officials spent last weekend in Europe trying to soothe jitters over the prospect of U.S. military aid to Ukraine ending, assuring counterparts from Paris, Berlin and Kyiv as the war enters its third year that Washington will somehow come through. In previous negotiations with Republicans in Congress over the debt ceiling and other spending, the Biden White House has mostly avoided sharp public criticism as it focused on behind-the-scenes negotiation. But it has targeted Johnson frequently, accusing him in a Valentine's Day poem of threatening border security.
The Senate last week approved a $95 billion bill providing assistance for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan by an overwhelming 70-30 vote, with 22 Republicans joining most Democrats in voting "aye."Johnson sent the House home for a two-week recess without bringing the measure up for a vote, saying "we're not going to be forced into action by the Senate."He says any package of international military and humanitarian assistance must also include measures to address security at the U.S. border with Mexico after Republicans blocked a version of the bill that included the biggest overhaul of U.S. immigration policy in decades. Senate Republicans and Democrats have joined those urging passage of the aid bill. Many believe it would pass the House with bipartisan support if Johnson would allow the chamber to vote. "Putin has signaled he could attack NATO countries the United States is obligated to defend if he succeeds in Ukraine," the memo warns. "If House Republicans facilitate Ukraine's defeat, America could face costs infinitely more expensive than the bipartisan investments we need to make in Ukraine's capacity to defend themselves," it reads.
Former President Donald Trump, frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination and a long-standing critic of the NATO alliance, has in recent weeks threatened to abandon some European allies if they were to be attacked by Russia.

Sudan’s warring sides commit abuses, including strikes on fleeing civilians, UN report says
REUTERS/February 23, 2024
GENEVA: Both sides in Sudan’s civil war have committed abuses that may amount to war crimes including indiscriminate attacks on civilian sites like hospitals, markets and even camps for the displaced, the UN human rights office said on Friday. Efforts have so far failed to end the 10-month-old conflict that pits Sudan’s regular armed forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Thousands of people have been killed and over six million forced to flee their homes, making it the country with the largest displaced population in the world. “Some of these violations would amount to war crimes,” Volker Turk, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, said in a statement accompanying the report. “The guns must be silenced, and civilians must be protected.” The US has already formally determined that the warring parties have committed war crimes and said the RSF and allied militias were involved in ethnic cleansing in West Darfur. Both sides have said they would investigate reports of killings and abuses and prosecute any fighters found to be involved. The United Nations report covers the April-December period and is based on interviews with over 300 victims and witnesses as well as footage and satellite imagery. It says that sometimes those fleeing for their lives or displaced by the violence became victims of explosive weapons attacks. In one incident, dozens of displaced people were killed when their camp in Zalingei, Darfur was shelled by RSF between Sept. 14-17, the report said. Some 26 civilians, mostly women and children, were killed on Aug. 22 by shells reportedly fired by the Sudanese Armed Forces while sheltering under a bridge.
The report also says the RSF had adopted a military strategy of using human shields, citing testimonies of victims involved. It describes incidents in the capital Khartoum where dozens of individuals were arrested and placed outside near RSF military posts to deter air strikes from Sudanese fighter jets. UN investigators have so far documented cases of sexual violence affecting 118 people, including one women who was detained and repeatedly gang-raped for weeks. Many of the rapes were committed by RSF members, it said. Reuters has also documented cases of gang rape in ethnically targeted attacks by RSF forces and allied Arab militia. The war erupted last April over disputes about the powers of the army and the RSF under an internationally-backed plan for a political transition toward civilian rule and free elections.

Turkiye, Somalia to deepen military bonds after historic deal
MENEKSE TOKYAY/Arab News/February 23, 2024
Ankara: With Somalia partnering with Turkiye to help build its sea and naval capabilities, questions have now arisen about the potential regional impact of the tie-up, and why Ankara is expanding its military footprint overseas, including seeking a greater presence in the Red Sea.
Somalia’s cabinet approved on Wednesday the historic defense deal that authorized Turkiye to defend the African nation’s coastline for the next decade, amid tensions with Ethiopia, and mandated it to build a navy for the country.
Turkiye, whose navy has been operating off Somalia’s shores and in the Gulf of Aden under the UN mission since 2009, will not only build the African country’s navy but also train and equip personnel to counter illegal fishing in the latter’s territorial waters.
Turkiye has also been training Somalia’s soldiers for a few years in a bid to help the country develop its army. Ankara also has its largest overseas military base in Mogadishu, while a Turkish company is operating the airport of the capital city.
“This agreement will put an end to the fear of terrorism, pirates, illegal fishing, poisoning, abuse and threats from abroad,” Somalia’s Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre was quoted by local press as saying during the cabinet meeting.
“Somalia will have a true ally, a friend, and a brother in the international arena,” he added. Although the details of the agreement have yet to be disclosed, Somalia’s press claimed that the deal would give Turkiye 30 percent of the revenues coming from the Somali exclusive economic zone, which is rich in marine resources. Considered a gateway to the continent, Somalia’s 3,025-km coastline is the longest in Africa. The agreement needs to be ratified by Turkiye’s parliament and the president before being finalized. Hakan Akbas, a senior advisor at Albright Stonebridge Group, said that this pact shows Turkiye’s growing ambition to become a key player in the Horn of Africa, enhancing its ties with Somalia and Ethiopia but excluding some Ethiopian agreements troubling Mogadishu. “Turkiye’s recent strategic moves aim to bolster Somalia’s military, promote stability, and protect its interests through security, economic, and humanitarian efforts,” he added. According to Akbas, this agreement reflects Turkiye’s bold foreign policy and strategy to establish key military and economic partnerships aimed at securing its interests in the region. “This gives Somalia a very essential partner in matters of national security, counter-piracy, anti-terrorism, and border protection, including against illegal fishing. It is a win-win for both nations,” he said. Earlier this month, Somalia’s Defense Minister Abdulkadir Mohamed Nur signed the framework agreement in Ankara that mandated Turkiye to protect Somalia’s territorial waters. For Rashid Abdi, chief analyst at Sahan Research, a Nairobi-based think tank, the deal gives Turkiye huge leverage to reshape Somalia and the Horn of Africa.
“Turkish navy will help rebuild Somali navy and will deploy ships to patrol its maritime Economic Protection Zone. Turkiye is now positioned to become Somalia’s top strategic partner,” he told Arab News. However tensions still remain high in the region especially after Ethiopia and the breakaway Somaliland reached an agreement granting landlocked Addis Ababa access to the Red Sea and ensuring the recognition of Somaliland as an independent state. Somaliland is still recognized internationally as part of Somalia although it controversially declared its independence in 1991. The deal had infuriated Somalia which considered it a breach of its territorial sovereignty. As Ankara also has close ties with Ethiopia and provided it with military drones in 2022, how Turkiye will find a balance between the national interests of both countries remains to be seen especially regarding maritime violations.
Abdi thinks that the agreement will put Turkiye in a tight spot if Ankara seeks to enforce Somali sovereignty in breakaway Somaliland. “It will also be viewed as provocative by Ethiopia which wants a military base on the Somaliland coast close to Bab Al-Mandeb,” he said.
“Turkiye has huge commercial interest in Ethiopia. Turkiye helped Ethiopian premier end the conflict in Tigray. For the time being, Turkiye will be walking a tightrope. It is therefore uncertain how Ankara will balance the competing demands of its two Horn allies — Ethiopia and Somalia. Ethiopia is a big market, home of the African Union and a regional hegemon. Upsetting Ethiopia and countering its regional interests in Somaliland will put Addis Ababa on a confrontation course with Ankara,” he added.
In December, the UN Security Council lifted its three-decade arms embargo on Somalia’s government. “The latest defense deal with Somalia is anchored in a meticulously crafted intellectual framework spanning a decade,” said international relations professor Serhat Guvenc of Istanbul’s Kadir Has University.
“Ankara recently announced the provision of a second batch of MILGEM corvettes to the Ukrainian navy. Turkiye’s forthcoming endeavor to assist Somalia in bolstering its naval forces will mark the country’s second significant contribution to a foreign navy,” he added. According to Guvenc, Turkiye’s strategy in Africa began with bolstering trade and economic ties before seeking to provide military training and high-end Turkish weapons systems. “Turkiye recently constructed Istanbul-class frigates for its naval forces exemplifying the country’s expanding maritime prowess extending from Istanbul to the Gulf of Aden without requiring refueling stops,” he said. Turkiye also took part in the multinational Combined Task Force 151 to prevent piracy attacks in the Gulf of Aden and off the eastern coast of Somalia. Turkiye took command of the task force six times. “Turkish Naval Forces have shown a high effectiveness and even in instances where Turkiye didn’t commit ships, its commanders were preferred due to their intimate understanding of regional challenges,” said Guvenc. Despite acknowledging the strategic significance of the deal, experts caution that its implementation demands substantial investment and logistical capabilities from Turkiye. “In 2014, Turkish Naval Forces started its circumnavigation of Africa and toured the continent twice. But this time, Turkiye needs to double and maybe triple its naval forces for effective outreach across the vast region,” Guvenc said.
“Overseas bases give countries a significant prestige and put them among countries which have outreach to the remote regions of the world. It is a key indicator for the power hierarchies because it means that the country is able to project strategic power from its naval influence,” he added. However, Guvenc sees some “political” risks with the deal. “Turkiye has traditionally refrained from taking part in intra-African conflicts. It has always taken a standing that was above conflicts. But it remains to be seen to what extent it could safeguard Somali interests by force or whether it would have to be involved in local conflicts. It is also technically difficult to protect the exclusive economic zone of Somalia which intersects with issues like illegal fishing activities and potential clashes with other nations in the region,” he said.

Latest English LCCC  analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on February 23-24/2024
Palestinian Leaders Have Brought a Nakba to Their People
Khaled Abu Toameh/Gatestone Institute./February 23, 2024
"Ending Hamas's rule is very good for everyone, even for Hamas itself. It will prevent Hamas from tampering with the Gaza Strip and will put an end to the torture and killing of the people of Palestine. Overthrowing Hamas and ending its coup in Palestine is important for every Palestinian and Arab." — Abdullah Ghanem al-Qahtani, Saudi social media influencer, X (twitter.com), February 20, 2024.
"We congratulate the leaders of Hamas and the [Iran-led] axis of resistance for the decisive victory they achieved over the Palestinian people in Gaza. They [Hamas leaders] have caused the extermination of the people, destroyed their homes and displaced them." — Ahmed al-Fifi, Saudi influencer, X (twitter.com), February 21, 2024.
As soon as the war ends, the Palestinians' first priority should be to replace the horrific leaders who have been dragging them from one nakba to another.
For the past three decades, Palestinian leaders have failed their people on an epic level. Instead of improving their lives, they have been radicalizing them.... Unless the Palestinians rid themselves of these despots, they will continue to pay with their lives and the lives of their children.
Instead of distancing themselves from Hamas, leaders of the Palestinian Authority (PA) continue to talk about achieving "unity" with the terror group. Asked about making common cause with a group that carried out atrocities against Israelis, PA Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh indicated that the world needs to forget the massacre that took place on October 7.
Nearly four months after Hamas waged war on Israel, Palestinians and other Arabs are finally speaking out against the Iran-backed terror group, holding it responsible for bringing a new nakba (catastrophe) on the two million Palestinians in the Gaza Strip. Despite the criticism, many Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza Strip continue to support Hamas and would likely vote for it if there were an election.
Hamas sought to bring a nakba to Israel when its terrorists in the Gaza Strip crossed the border into Israel on October 7, 2023, murdering, beheading, raping, mutilating and burning alive some 1,200 Israeli men, women, and children.
Instead, Hamas, whose leaders are either hiding in tunnels throughout the Gaza Strip or in villas and five-star hotels in Qatar and the Middle East, ended up bringing a true nakba on the Palestinians.
"Gazans want peace, our kids want to go back to schools," said a Palestinian man from the Jabalya refugee camp in the Gaza Strip. Speaking during a demonstration by Palestinians against the war and the lack of food and medicine, the man asked:
"Why did Hamas get us into this gamble? Why is Hamas shooting at us? We want to live. The people are hungry; they have sick children and are unable to sleep in their homes. Some people are sleeping in public places, others in sewage systems. Our lives have become miserable! Why is Hamas shooting at the hungry people? They [Hamas] started a war we didn't want. We want peace. Why is Hamas doing this to us? [Hamas leader Yahya] Sinwar is killing us, not the Israeli army. He is the one who is killing us. Our children are the victims. Our children are asking for a sack of flour, a bottle of drinking water."
According to reports from the Gaza Strip, Hamas militiamen have been trying for the last few days to prevent Palestinians from taking to the streets to protest against the terror group.
Videos circulating on social media show Hamas policemen and members of the group's armed wing, Izaddin al-Qassam, responding with gunfire to the protests, held under the banner of "We want to live!"
"We don't want [Israeli] hostages," said another Palestinian man during one of the anti-Hamas protests in the northern Gaza Strip. He was referring to the more than 240 Israeli men, women and children kidnapped by Hamas terrorists during the October 7 massacre, of whom more than 130 are still being held hostage today. The man added:
"We don't agree with what Hamas is doing. We want to live in peace. If they [Hamas] accept this, they are welcome. If not, they and Iran should leave us alone. Hamas should go away. We want to live. That is all we want."
On February 20, Algerian political analyst Anwar Malek published an open letter to Hamas leaders Ismail Haniyeh and Khaled Mashaal "who are living in their palaces in Doha, Qatar." Malek wrote:
"The strategic goal of Tehran is to displace the people of Gaza, as they [Iranians] did to the people of Syria, Iraq, and Yemen.
"Iran is using Hamas as a tool. [Iranian Supreme Leader Ali] Khamenei's Hamas led the people to a Holocaust and has caused them to starve.
"[Palestinian] children are dying of hunger, while the Hamas leaders are enjoying themselves in their palaces and their stomachs are full. If the leaders of Hamas had a remnant of manhood, they would bear their historical responsibility and make decisions that would save their people.
"Unfortunately, however, they [Hamas leaders] are continuing to deceive the people with the illusion of clear victory [over Israel]. Future generations will curse [Hamas leaders] Yahya Sinwar, Ismail Haniyeh, Khaled Mashaal, Osama Hamdan, and Khalil al-Hayya. They will curse [Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan] Nasrallah, the [Iran-backed] Houthis [in Yemen], Khamenei, [Syrian President] Bashar Assad, and everyone who played a role in the October 7 flood that drowned the Palestinians and their Gaza Strip in blood and tears."
Saudi social media influencer Abdullah Ghanem al-Qahtani emphasized that removing Hamas from the Palestinian scene has become a necessity that would give the Palestinians new hope for a better life. He called for considering the idea of placing Hamas's "wealthy" leaders under house arrest for the purpose of creating a good opportunity in which the Palestinian internal house will be rearranged.
"There is no doubt that getting rid of the leadership of Hamas will prevent the presence of [Iran's] Revolutionary Guard Corps in Palestine. The absence of Hamas will end the state of its coup against its people. Ending Hamas's rule is very good for everyone, even for Hamas itself. It will prevent Hamas from tampering with the Gaza Strip and will put an end to the torture and killing of the people of Palestine.
"Overthrowing Hamas and ending its coup in Palestine is important for every Palestinian and Arab. Its exit from the scene will be equivalent to the Egyptian army saving its people from the rule of the Muslim Brotherhood [in 2013, when Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood President Mohammed Morsi was ousted by the military]. Hamas was a malicious partner with, and branch of, the Muslim Brotherhood.
"They [the Islamists] tried to destroy Egypt and hand over its land to terrorist organizations. The absence of Hamas may prevent the recurrence of threats to the security of the Red Sea, which has become crowded with armed global fleets, which worries everyone and threatens the security of the Arab countries in order to to protect Israel and serve Iran's projects. The loser is Palestine and all the Arabs. Hamas is like the terrorist organization Hezbollah, an evil that affects everyone. Why does Hamas insist on exterminating the people of the Gaza Strip?"
Ahmed al-Fifi, another Saudi social media influencer, scoffed at Hamas's recurring claims that its terrorists have achieved "victory" in the war with Israel.
"We congratulate the leaders of Hamas and the [Iran-led] axis of resistance for the decisive victory they achieved over the Palestinian people in Gaza.
"They [Hamas leaders] have caused the extermination of the people, destroyed their homes and displaced them. We call on the wise men of Muslims and Arabs to let their historical books record this venerable victory. We conclude by saying: 'May God disgrace them.'"
What is astonishing is that while a growing number of Palestinians and Arabs have begun to criticize Hamas and hold it responsible for bringing disaster upon the Palestinians of the Gaza Strip, the leaders of the Palestinian Authority (PA) are refusing to utter a word against Iran and its Palestinian terror proxies. PA President Mahmoud Abbas has refrained from condemning Hamas for their atrocities it committed against Israelis on October 7.
Instead of distancing themselves from Hamas, Palestinian Authority leaders continue to talk about achieving "unity" with the terror group. "We are ready to engage [Hamas]," said PA Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh. "If Hamas is not, then that is a different story. We need Palestinian unity." Asked about making common cause with a group that carried out atrocities against Israelis, Shtayyeh indicated that the world needs to forget the massacre that took place on October 7. "One should not continue focusing on October 7," he said.
Earlier, the same Shtayyeh and other senior Palestinian officials defended Hamas by arguing that the terror group is an integral part of Palestinian society and politics. "Hamas is part of the Palestinian political map, and if Israel claims that it will eliminate [Hamas], this will not happen, and it is unacceptable to us," Shtayyeh said in a speech at the 21st edition of the Doha Forum in Qatar, in December 2023.
If anything, the statements of the leaders of the Palestinian Authority show that they do not care about the thousands of Palestinians who have been killed and wounded as a result of Hamas's foolish decision to wage war on Israel.
If PA leaders continue to see Hamas as a legitimate and acceptable partner for a unity government, this does not bode well for the future of the Palestinians, especially those living in the Gaza Strip. It means that the Palestinians will continue to be ruled by terror groups whose main goal is to eliminate Israel regardless of the price the Palestinians pay. The Palestinian Authority is saying that it wants Hamas to be part of any future government and lead the Palestinians toward further violence, bloodshed, and catastrophe.
As soon as the war ends, the Palestinians' first priority should be to replace the horrific leaders who have been dragging them from one nakba to another.
It started in Jordan, where the PLO tried to create a state-within-a-state in the late 1960s, created a nakba there, then moved to Lebanon, which the Palestinian armed groups used as a launching pad to attack Israel before they were expelled from the country in 1982 for creating yet another nakba there.
For the past three decades, Palestinian leaders have failed their people on an epic level. Instead of improving their lives, they have been radicalizing them against Israel and encouraging them to launch uprisings in the West Bank and mini-wars in the Gaza Strip that have resulted in thousands of Palestinian casualties. Unless the Palestinians rid themselves of these despots, they will continue to pay with their lives and the lives of their children.
*Khaled Abu Toameh is an award-winning journalist based in Jerusalem.
© 2024 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

If the US wants peace it must back up its words with teeth
Daoud Kuttab/Arab News/February 23, 2024
The third US veto of UN Security Council resolutions calling for a ceasefire was not received well in the Middle East, although most lost hope in Washington long ago.
America says it wants more time to find a solution to the hostage issue that would usher in a six-week pause in hostilities, but not a full ceasefire. Even on that score, there is no guarantee that the Israelis — especially the four times criminally indicted prime minister, who continuously ignores what the US says — would be willing to listen. Benjamin Netanyahu has said that he knows how to deal with the US, and he has been proved right. He knows very well when Joe Biden is serious, and he still doesn’t believe the White House genuinely wants him to stop his war on Palestinians, especially in Gaza.
As a result, the world is dealing with ever-moving goalposts when it comes to when this carnage will stop. Many thought that by the end of 2023, or after the first US presidential primaries, the war would end. But the goalposts continue to move, based on what Netanyahu wants rather than what Washington says.
Now the latest US target appears to be the beginning of Ramadan, expected on March 10 or 11.
In Palestine, the most special place to be during the holy month is Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem, the third-holiest place in Islam and a magnet for Palestinian Muslims and any other Muslim allowed in by the Israelis.
In previous years, the Israeli army — expecting vast numbers of people piling up at checkpoints and trying to push their way into the Old City — has generally avoided clashing with observing Muslims. Military checkpoints abandon the usually tight travel restrictions and time-consuming individual checks, and have generally allowed any worshipper wishing to reach Jerusalem to do so, especially on Fridays.
The last ten days of the holy month are the most revered, and the 27th day of Ramadan is the pinnacle. It is called Laylat Al-Qadr, or the Night of Destiny, when Muslims believe the Qur’an was first sent down from heaven and when its first verses were revealed to the Prophet Muhammad.
The pressure is on the US and Israel to find a solution quickly, because the clock is ticking inexorably toward yet another deadline.
Normally, Friday noon prayers are attended by between 250,000 and 500,000 worshippers. On the last 10 days of Ramadan, many of the faithful stay overnight on the 36-acre site, a sixth of the size of the entire Old City of Jerusalem.
But things are different this year: the far-right extremist Israeli government appears to be set on ruining the holy month for Muslims, regardless of the backlash this will cause. After the Oct. 7 Hamas attack, Israel canceled all travel permits for West Bank Palestinians. The security minister, Itamar Ben Gvir — a notorious bigot who has been charged with hate speech against Arabs and has a criminal conviction for supporting terrorism — is now demanding that the ban on Palestinians from the occupied West Bank entering Jerusalem be not just upheld, but enforced on Palestinian citizens of Israel.
The Israeli Cabinet appears to be backing Ben Gvir’s outright discrimination: but as usual, Netanyahu, not known for his truthfulness, has said that discussions continue about ways to ensure the right to pray for Muslim citizens of Israel. Some Palestinian Muslim leaders who are Israeli citizens are threatening to challenge the restrictions in the High Court.
While the discussion in the Israeli media is focused on Israel’s Muslim citizens, no one is even talking about the right to worship of Palestinians who live in the occupied territories, even residents of Jerusalem itself. Ben Gvir has even banned the traditional celebrations and colorful lights that are a regular feature of Ramadan at night in Jerusalem. Worshippers who fast all day go out at night as part of the cultural and social life that comes alive during evening hours, when a wide assortment of cultural and artistic events take place, especially in the Old City.
Jordan, whose Hashemite royal family have been custodians of Al-Aqsa Mosque for generations, has made no public statements but has sent strong messages using different channels. According to some Israeli reports, Jordan has made it clear that there may be widespread regional unrest if there are any tensions in Al-Aqsa Mosque during Ramadan.
The Jerusalem Waqf Council is due to meet next week to respond to the Israeli decision, but regardless of what Jordan or the council say and do, the Palestinian people throughout the occupied territories and beyond will no doubt respond with strong opposition to any attempt at control their right to worship in Al-Aqsa. The pressure is on the US and Israel to find a solution quickly, because the clock is ticking inexorably toward yet another deadline created by the Americans — who are still unwilling to put any teeth behind their own words.
• Daoud Kuttab is an award-winning Palestinian journalist and a director of Community Media Network. X: @daoudkuttab

Another year of misery coming for the Afghan people
Luke Coffey/Arab News/February 23, 2024
If the debacle of last week’s conference in Doha to discuss the future of Afghanistan is any guide, 2024 will probably be another bleak year for the Afghan people.
Special envoys on Afghanistan from more than 25 countries and organizations met in the Qatari capital at the behest of UN Secretary-General António Guterres. The meeting had two main objectives.
The first was to create a framework for future international engagement with Taliban-controlled Afghanistan. The second was to find consensus on who should be the UN special envoy for Afghanistan, with a mission to “focus on diplomacy between Afghanistan and international stakeholders and advancing intra-Afghan dialogue.” This is important stuff. Regrettably, neither of these objectives was met. Once again, it will be the Afghan people who suffer.
That the conference failed to meet even the lowest expectations should have come as no surprise. It was doomed from the outset. At the last minute, the Taliban boycotted it altogether.
The Taliban’s reason for skipping the meeting was petty. The UN had also invited a small selection of representatives from Afghan civil society, but Taliban did not like this and refused to participate. It is unclear how the UN decided on which civil society representatives and organizations to invite. However, it is interesting to look at the groups they did not invite.
For example, nobody from the National Resistance Front, arguably the most credible anti-Taliban opposition, was invited. Also, no organization or individual that has been participating in the Vienna Process was asked to join the gathering. The Vienna Process is a series of meetings in the Austrian capital in recent years between different parts of Afghan civil society. All participants in the Vienna Process are united on a platform opposed to Taliban rule. The group last met in December, when 50 Afghans representing different ethnic groups attended. At a minimum, it would have made sense for the UN to invite either the National Resistance Front or Vienna Process participants to Doha.
The failure of the Doha conference followed another damning report by the UN on the growing terrorist threat in Afghanistan. The report, by the UN Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team, lays out in detail the growing transnational terrorist threats that have evolved in Afghanistan since the Taliban took over. Despite Taliban assurances to the Trump administration that they would not harbor terrorist groups such as Al-Qaeda if the US withdrew its forces, the opposite is true.
That the conference failed to meet even the lowest expectations should have come as no surprise.
The UN report says: “The relationship between the Taliban and Al-Qaida remains close, and the latter maintains a holding pattern in Afghanistan under Taliban patronage.” Do not believe that Al-Qaeda operatives are returning to Afghanistan to live out a quiet life. On the contrary, the UN report says the militant group “continues to pose a threat in the region, and potentially beyond.”
It is undeniable that different transnational terrorist organizations, including Al-Qaeda, are active in Afghanistan in a way not seen in years. With the international community focused on Ukraine and Gaza, policymakers had better wake up to the fact that Afghanistan is once again becoming a hotbed of terrorism.
With each month that goes by since they took power, the Taliban are realizing that it is far easier fighting an insurgency against the government that to be the government responsible for the well-being of the whole country. The incompetence of the de facto Taliban government is evident. Afghans face an acute humanitarian crisis, food shortages, and economic problems. There has also been a series of unfortunate natural disasters, such as earthquakes and floods, that have compounded the humanitarian crisis. Exacerbating the dire situation is the international community’s inability to find a way to support the Afghan people with aid without indirectly lining the pockets of the Taliban leadership. It was this issue that the UN hoped to address in Doha.
For the well-being of the Afghan people, the Taliban should have attended the Doha conference. They need to start working with the international community in a constructive way. At a minimum, the Taliban should live up to their original promises of forming an inclusive government, safeguarding basic human rights especially for women, and the rejection of transnational terrorist groups such as Al-Qaeda. Sadly, this is unlikely to happen anytime soon.
Meanwhile, the UN is naive if it thinks any discussion about the future of Afghanistan can proceed without including the National Resistance Front or other groups who are participating in the Vienna Process. In fact, when the Vienna Process meets again later this year, the UN secretary-general should send a representative or at least an observer. If there is no problem meeting the Taliban, then meeting other sections of Afghan civil society, especially those most persecuted and marginalized, should not be a problem for the UN.
So far, the Taliban leadership has showed no genuine desire to work with the international community in a way that can help alleviate the suffering of the Afghan people, while also addressing the legitimate terrorist concerns many have. In retrospect, it’s unclear what the Doha conference was meant to achieve under these circumstances. Frankly, the meeting should have been postponed.
• Luke Coffey is a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute. X: @LukeDCoffey

Gulf’s evolving ties with Iraqi Kurdistan signal a strategic shift
Sinem Cengiz/Arab News/February 23, 2024
The Gulf Cooperation Council has officially invited the Kurdistan Regional Government in Iraq to take part in its meetings. The invitation was extended by GCC Secretary-General Jasem Albudaiwi during his meeting with Kurdish Prime Minister Masrour Barzani on the sidelines of last week’s World Government Summit in Dubai. This is an important development that illustrates how the GCC is seeking to play a potentially important and emerging role in Iraqi Kurdistan, which is perceived as a stable and prosperous region that the Gulf countries want to invest in.
The past decade has seen a deepening of ties between the KRG and the GCC. The UAE was the first Gulf country to open a consulate in Irbil in 2012. This was followed by Kuwait in 2015 and then Saudi Arabia in 2016. Qatar opened its consulate in 2023, while Bahrain and Oman are yet to have a high-level representation there. Although Irbil lacks a diplomatic presence in the Gulf capitals, there have been recent discussions regarding establishing a Kurdish paradiplomatic office in the UAE.
Abu Dhabi has the most extensive diplomatic and political ties with the KRG and is one of the largest investors in postwar Iraq, with much of the funding going to Kurdistan. In 2014, Dubai’s Chamber of Commerce opened an office in Irbil to support some Emirati companies that were already registered with the KRG. Qatar has also rolled up its sleeves to invest significantly in the autonomous region’s burgeoning energy and infrastructure sectors. However, several developments have disrupted the coherence of GCC-KRG relations. First was Daesh’s rise to prominence in Iraq in 2014. Back in 2013, Irbil was supposed to be a major center of tourism for the region that aimed to attract Gulf tourists; however, Daesh’s presence harmed the tourism tool that could foster relations. Secondly, intra-GCC divisions led to differing policies being pursued by its member states, creating an obstacle for a common strategy toward Irbil. Kurdish leaders have been paying frequent trips to the Gulf countries since the normalization wave in the region
Thirdly, the Iraqi Kurds suffered significant political, diplomatic and economic setbacks after holding an independence referendum in 2017 at a time of heightened turmoil in the region, marked by the fight against Daesh and rivalries among regional powers. Fourthly, intra-Kurdish divisions have also hampered the possibility of a comprehensive framework for KRG-GCC relations being drawn up. Lastly, the COVID-19 pandemic set back the infrastructure and investment plans of the Gulf countries in Kurdistan.
However, the end of the intra-GCC divisions provided room for stronger interactions between the KRG and the Gulf states, depending on their varying degree of involvement in Irbil. Kurdish leaders have been paying frequent trips to the Gulf countries since the normalization wave in the region. Barzani’s visit to the UAE and Qatar in 2022 was significant in showing his government’s balancing policy in the sense of maintaining cordial relations with each party.
From the Gulf perspective, a political will from the regional bloc’s leadership is significant in terms of moving forward with economic and social relations with Irbil. These burgeoning relations serve the “Vision” plans of the Gulf countries. Each GCC member has been pursuing diversification strategies to varying degrees. The variations in the pace of their plans are likely to bring more bilateral or trilateral arrangements with the KRG, rather than a unified GCC engagement.
For instance, the UAE is the second-largest investor in Iraqi Kurdistan, providing 25 percent of foreign direct investment, trailing only China. In a concerted effort to fortify their investment, trade and economic ties, Abu Dhabi and Irbil have proposed the establishment of a UAE-Kurdistan economic council. The other Gulf countries can follow a similar path to coordinate their economic ties with the KRG.
It is noteworthy to mention the alleged involvement of Iraqi Kurds in the rapprochement between Turkiye and the Gulf states
Given the thaw between Turkiye and the Gulf countries, there is also the prospect of Turkiye-KRG-GCC triangular cooperation that could shift the region’s geopolitical and geoeconomic environments. It is noteworthy to mention the alleged involvement of Iraqi Kurds in the rapprochement between Turkiye and the Gulf states, particularly the UAE. Despite several reports claiming that the Irbil leadership played a key role in initiating direct talks between Ankara and Abu Dhabi, it is hard to know the extent of its involvement. Infrastructural projects could be instrumental in bringing Gulf capital to Iraqi Kurdistan. However, such projects might also face substantial challenges, including internal Kurdish divisions, Baghdad’s objection and the risk of Iranian reactions against both Irbil and the Gulf.
Within this context, it is important to mention the Iranian factor in the burgeoning KRG-GCC relations, which is likely to also give space for Turkiye’s involvement. It is hard to argue that Irbil-Gulf ties will not clash with Iranian interests in Iraq and the Kurdish government. However, growing regional dialogue and de-escalation initiatives carried out by the KRG and the GCC could help mitigate Iran’s proxy involvements in the region. Improving Irbil-Gulf relations, which are shaped by political, economic and security factors, could also help in crystalizing the Gulf countries’ Iraq policy.
The Gulf countries are currently neither engaging on an ad hoc basis — as opposed to being proactive players in Iraqi Kurdistan — nor are they pursuing assertive policy that could provoke Iran. They are adopting a cautious but determined approach to assess the viability of projects, along with how the political environment in Baghdad and Irbil develops. The GCC’s invitation of the KRG to its meetings could be read within this broader context.
• Sinem Cengiz is a Turkish political analyst who specializes in Turkiye’s relations with the Middle East. X: @SinemCngz

Ukraine: Putin’s Mixed Messages
Amir Taheri/ Asharq Al-Awsat/February 23/2024
Two years already! And how much longer? This is what comes to mind as the war in Ukraine enters its third year with no prospect of an end in sight. Because war is a matter of here-and-now one shouldn’t expect those who fight it to think of its aftermath. Belligerents who do so often end up losing the war. In the current war the stakes are so high that imagining an end of it in terms of winner-and-loser is mind-boggling. If Russia wins, which means defeating NATO, it would be elevated to the position of top dog not only in Europe but on the global stage.
On the other hand, if Russia loses the defeat could unleash a process that could end up dismantling the rump version of the Tsarist Empire which Lenin called “prison of nations.”
So, what to do?
I believe that Vladimir Putin is already thinking of a way out provided as, he has been saying on a number of occasions recently, his NATO adversaries accept a face-saving compromise. To advance that idea he has introduced three themes.
The first is to redefine his “Special Military Operation” as a civil war by claiming that Ukrainians are authentic Russians stuck by a crisis of identity. In his recent soliloquy, resented as an interview with American TV star Tucker Carlson, he even claims that, when no longer able to fight, Ukrainian soldiers call on Russians not to fire at them because “Russians shouldn’t kill Russians.”To hammer in that theme, Putin even rewrites the history of World War II. According to him all that Hitler wanted was to re-unite scattered “German” peoples. Thus, he annexed Austria amid massive support by Austrians. Next, he rescued oppressed Sudeten Germans in Czechoslovakia, again facing no resistance. The next step was to bring ethnic Germans in Danzig under the flag of the “fatherland”, something that could have been done peacefully had not Poland, encouraged by the British and the French, decided to keep.
Needless to say, Putin’s revisionist narrative is full of holes. If we take it as a yardstick for using the “civil war” label, one could also see the American War of Independence as an English civil war. The First World War, too, started as a civil war between two grandsons of Queen Victoria. More recently even the war in Indochina was a civil war involving three different chunks of the French colonial “possessions” there. What matters, however, is Putin’s attempt at persuading the Ukrainians that even if they do not achieve full victory as President Volodymyr Zelensky keeps promising, they would not be humiliated by someone outside the family. Using logical jujitsu or sophistry if you like, we could also say that the same would apply if Russia were to lose the war with one group of “Russians” winning against another group of “Russians.”
The second theme that Putin advances in the same soliloquy is that he is chiefly concerned with “de-Nazification” of Ukraine. He then goes out of his way to suggest that Zelensky isn’t one of the Nazis and, in fact, was initially opposed by the Nazis.
Thus, if and when, the idea of a negotiated end to the war is accepted, Zelensky, far from being excluded, would be acceptable as a partner. And since Putin doesn’t name the “Nazis” it would be possible to reshuffle Zelensky’s entourage and claim that the “Nazis” have left. The next theme that Putin is developing is that of Russia as an historic “defender of Christianity”.
He ignores the fact that Russians were a branch of the heathen Vikings from Scandinavia who moved towards the southeast while other branches moved west to British Isles, northern France and probably pre-Columbus America. For centuries the “Rus” were ruled by pagan Swedish barons. The word Rus, the origin of Russian means “rough” or “peasant” in Swedish and other Indo-European languages. (Rustic in English, Rustique in French and Rustai in Persian.) Starting from 900 AD and for centuries, the “rus” lived as nomads and mercenaries for surrounding powers and ended up converting to Christianity under Vladimir, a Swedish baron and future saint. Interestingly, Putin starts Russia’s history with Ivan IV known as the Awe-Inspiring or Terrible (1547-1584) who defeated the Tatars and united the various Russian groups under one flag with a standing army (streltsy) and a secret police (oprichinki).
Putin’s subtext is that the West should see Russia as a defender of Christendom against a new Tataria which he does not openly identify but isn’t hard to guess who he means.In other words, he wants to be the new Ivan, reuniting all “Russians” but not to fight the West. He even claims he asked President Bill Clinton to help Russia join NATO to protect the Western family against threats from the East, but was cold-shouldered. Asked whether he could imagine a negotiated end to the war, Putin says “Yes” and then adds the easiest of his wishes to grant; “but not without de-Nazification.”
But, what about “occupied territories” in Dombas that Zelensky vows to liberate? They could be granted a special form of autonomy under a joint administration composed of both pro-Kyiv and pro-Moscow figures, something like the system created in Northern Ireland which Sinn Fein now calls “North of Ireland”. And Crimea? In 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea, it had a 40-year lease that allowed it effective control not only of its naval bases but a virtual monopoly on key decisions concerning the Peninsula. Although Putin suffers from a huge credibility gap in NATO circles, a closer reading of his recent statements, including the wackiest about using nuclear weapons, could indicate deep worries about losing face which, if Russian history is an indication, could also mean losing one’s head.
The message that takes shape is that notwithstanding his braggadocios, Putin is looking for a face-saving way out of a war that he must know he cannot win in conventional terms. In this war, Ukraine, or NATO, cannot surrender and Russia cannot throw in the towel without a cataclysmic change in its domestic politics. What if this war is no longer about Ukraine but what place Russia could and should have in the still chaotic process of reshaping a world order that no longer works?

From War to Peace in the Middle East? Observations from a Regional Tour
Robert Satloff/Washington Institute/February 23/2024
Brief Analysis
The Washington Institute’s executive director reflects on the feasibility of the Biden administration’s current diplomatic plans in the region, based in part on what local officials said during his recent group trip to Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Israel, and the PA.
On February 22, The Washington Institute held a virtual Policy Forum with members of a delegation sent to the Middle East to assess the prospects for security and peace in the current environment. The following is an edited transcript of remarks delivered by Robert Satloff, the Institute’s Segal Executive Director and Howard P. Berkowitz Chair in U.S. Middle East Policy. A summary of remarks by other participants will be published separately.
Watch video of the event.
I have traveled to the Levant—Israel and its neighbors—many times over the past forty years, even during moments of conflict such as the Lebanon war and the first and second intifadas. This trip was different. The dark clouds that accompanied us were not just the rain that fell from Riyadh to Amman to Tel Aviv. There was a sadness, a sobriety, a harshness that we felt in every city—especially in Israel but not solely there. We spent a half-day at Kfar Aza, one of the communities that suffered the most from the October 7 attack, walking around with a survivor telling his family story of being locked in a safe room for twenty-one hours with two little children as Hamas terrorists were going house to house, machine-gunning kids in their beds and leaving hand grenades in refrigerators so that survivors and first-responders would themselves get blown up even after the last attacker was killed or captured. Just over the empty field that Hamas invaders traversed in a blink of an eye to mount their attack, one can also see and hear the bombs going off in Beit Hanoun and Jabalia. It was the war—past and present—in one frame.
In relative terms, the 30,000 or so killed in the war is a small number compared to the staggering fatality counts of Assad’s brutality, the generation of war in Afghanistan, or the genocides in Darfur, Rwanda, and Cambodia, but relative tragedy does not tell the story. The shock and horror of this war is real, powerful, and all-encompassing—one cannot but be moved by the enormity and depth of the human tragedy, among Israelis and Palestinians alike.
In private, Arab states are rooting for Israel to destroy Hamas—one senior Arab official even said, “Israel is fighting for us in Gaza, and if it wins, it will succeed in defeating an Iranian proxy for the first time in forty years.” But Arab states are focused on their own security and their own interests and are either unwilling or unable to play much of a role in shaping the outcome in Gaza or helping fill the vacuum that will be left by the Hamas defeat they all privately say they want.
By and large, Arab states would like to roll the clock back to October 6, except on one point: they all face domestic political urgency because of mass sympathy for the Palestinians and Al Jazeera-fueled outrage against the Israelis, which has caused them to channel energy into producing some tangible progress on the goal of Palestinian statehood, energy that wasn’t there on October 7. It’s not readily apparent that this emerges from the people of Gaza, who surely have other things on their mind; it is a requirement of postwar diplomacy that is only connected to the war by the upsurge in popular affinity for the plight of the Palestinians. The fact is that there was, as of October 6, progress on the Saudi-Israeli-U.S. “Big Bang” trilateral deal that the Saudis would like to get over the finish line. However, the Saudis don’t seem to want to do much to get it there. In their view, it’s up to America to convince Israel that it is reasonable that the price Israelis should be willing to pay Saudi Arabia is higher today, given the beating Israel’s reputation has taken since October 7. In hearing this, one senses almost zero appreciation that Israel today is a very different country than it was on October 6 and that, for the vast majority of Israelis, even talking about the two-state solution is viewed as bizarre, even perverse.
One odd aspect of the trip is that I understand Saudi motivations for a mutual defense treaty with the United States less today than before I was in Riyadh. That’s because so many Saudis tout the benefits they received from the detente they worked out with Iran nearly a year ago, a detente they say has spared the kingdom from Iranian mischief that has spread everywhere. If, as many suggest, at least one rationale for the October 7 attack was to upset the prospect of Saudi-Israel normalization, logic would dictate that the Iranians have other things up their sleeve to spoil a renewed push toward that normalization now. So while I applaud the Saudis for saying they want a closer, more intimate relationship with the United States, I remain confounded by their eagerness for the unknown of a U.S. defense treaty that will only have the U.S. promise to consult in times of emergency, in the process jettisoning the relative quiet they have enjoyed the past year. Despite this apparent disconnect, the fact remains that the Saudis seem to want the U.S. treaty very much.
Similarly, Israel wants the normalization very much too—there are different reasons for different people, but fundamentally they want it because it is the way out of the isolation Israel currently faces and because it gives Israel a broad strategic regional alliance in its confrontation with Iran. Are the Israelis willing to pay the price? Do we even know the real price? Are the Saudis and Israelis even talking directly about this, or is the entire conversation happening via the Americans? Unclear on all fronts.
Talking about these issues with most Israelis is an experience in cognitive dissonance: they see the world solely through the lens of 10/7. The humanitarian impact of the war is not on the popular radar and is generally viewed as a secondary aspect of the war-fighting against Hamas. To their credit, with only one exception, we did not hear Israeli officials talk in ideologically maximalist terms about their war aims—by and large, they were very precise: dismantle Hamas military capacity and governing capability so Hamas cannot again mount a military threat to Israel or stand in the way of alternative governance in Gaza. But operationally, there was not a single Israeli we met who questioned the wisdom of the Rafah operation, merely the timing and the plan to move civilians—about which they are confident, though real details of the plan to provide safe, secure, livable zones for Rafah’s more than one million civilians are decidedly scanty. In private conversation, Arab officials—especially, but not solely, military and intelligence officials—express great sympathy and understanding for Israel’s situation. Arabs are still working closely with Israel to stem Iranian smuggling and to cooperate against radical plans to escalate on other fronts. But the political coordination on the future of Gaza is still very weak—with one or two narrow exceptions, it is almost nonexistent. Arabs want America to carry the water here, too. They aren’t even willing to do the hard work on something like Palestinian reform, which everyone says is essential but few are willing to make happen. It bears remembering that the most significant reform of the Palestinian Authority was forced upon then-PA leader Yasser Arafat in 2002 by a Republican president, George W. Bush, who imposed a prime minister and finance minister on Arafat and, in return, gave a performance-based roadmap. This is a far cry from the loose talk about a time-bound, irreversible step toward a Palestinian state we hear in some quarters, in return for which the current PA leader is likely to do little more than exchange one crony prime minister for another. And this occurs amid even more objectionable talk about throwing Hamas a lifeline by bringing it under the PLO umbrella under the banner of Palestinian unity—in the current environment, as terrible an idea as one could imagine.
If Washington, Cairo, Riyadh, Amman, or other capitals expect Israelis to emerge from their post-October 7 fog anytime soon, I think they will be sorely disappointed. In the best of circumstances, Hamas and Israel will soon reach an agreement for an extended pause in fighting—what is now being termed a “temporary ceasefire”—in which many of the remaining hostages will be released. (This is not a done deal, but they are close to the zone of agreement; even so, my hunch is that not all hostages will be released, because I am skeptical that Yahya al-Sinwar and his comrades will fill the terms of this deal any more than they filled the terms of the last deal.) Many hostages, especially the women, will come out with horror stories that will almost surely further enrage Israelis and propel them to wait out the end of the pause to resume fighting, especially if the only hostages that remain are soldiers, not civilians.
All those other capitals have something else in mind—not only to use the pause as an off-ramp from the war altogether, but in that time to pull opportunity out of crisis. Specifically, they hope to extract concessions from Israel on a practical, if extended, vision of Palestinian self-determination in a recognized state—just enough to allow for Saudi-Israel normalization, a U.S.-Saudi mutual defense treaty (even including a civil nuclear cooperation accord), and perhaps even an Israel-Lebanon/Israel-Hezbollah understanding that brings those parties back from the brink of war. And all that—including Senate ratification of America’s first mutual defense treaty with a foreign country in decades—is supposed to happen in a matter of weeks, perhaps a few months. In other words, Joe Biden will soon decide whether he, like every president since Jimmy Carter, will risk his presidency on the pursuit of Middle East peace, but in this case he has in mind a miraculous bank shot that, by summer, could end the Arab-Israeli and Palestinian-Israeli conflict once and for all. God bless him—I think he has performed terrifically since October 7—but put me down as a skeptic.
I give the Biden administration enormous credit for taking swift and decisive measures over the past four months to deter regional escalation. But let’s not kid ourselves, a certain escalation happened, just not the general regional war many feared. Israelis say they are now facing seven hot fronts of military operation—Gaza, West Bank, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Iran. They are involved directly in six, leaving America, Britain, and some allies to address the Houthis and their rockets, missiles, and threats to Red Sea shipping. Even with Iran husbanding its resources and avoiding a direct confrontation, it has activated all those fronts, watching safely from the confines of its own territory as its adversaries take on one proxy after another. We may be scoring tactical victories, but it’s not even clear we are playing the right game. And I haven’t even mentioned Iran’s nuclear program, a topic that barely came up in our travels—which is probably just the way Iran wants it.
To end on a hopeful note: I do think the Israelis are coming to the end of main battle operations: Rafah may be a question mark, but after Rafah, there are no more Rafahs. Hopefully, we can soon turn to the question of what fills the vacuum in Gaza. Contractors around the region—and we met with some—are eager to rebuild. Some Arab countries have signaled a willingness to do things on the ground in Gaza, in certain instances, far more ambitious than ever contemplated before; the Emiratis are usually mentioned in this regard as well as others.
The Israelis are slow on this front, both because they are focused on the military issues and because of the politics involved. And here I don’t just mean the far right’s messianic aspirations to resettle Gush Katif, but also the more general Israeli political sense that it is wrong to make north Gaza safe enough for Palestinians to return until the Israeli evacuees are safe enough to return to their burnt and ransacked homes in southern Israel. But the Israelis are beginning, with baby steps. As the Times of Israel reports, they just launched a pilot project that has local Gazans unaffiliated with Hamas or the PA running a neighborhood in Gaza City. I have my doubts that this approach is replicable on a broad scale, since international aid agencies and key Arab states and other countries that are necessary for reconstruction will want a PA connection. But at least it shows a start. This is essential because real victory will not be achieved by just dismantling Hamas, but by replacing it with something much, much better. And on that task, there is a lot of work to do.
**Robert Satloff is the Segal Executive Director of The Washington Institute, a post he assumed in January 1993.

Cairo’s Fears as it Faces an Israeli Incursion in Rafah: Confrontation and Radicalization
Mohamed Farid, Mohamed Maher/Washington Institute/February 23/2024
Brief Analysis
Even if an incursion into Rafah occurs without sparking a clash between Israeli and Egyptian forces, Israel will be facing two key challenges in its relationship with Egypt: the eventual status of the Philadelphi corridor and the rapid rise of support for Hamas inside Egypt itself.
Hamas's original plan, when it launched its insane operation on October 7, appears to have been to lure Israel into a very harsh response, resulting in thousands of innocent victims in the Gaza Strip. The hope was that this would ultimately lead to igniting a major war between the Arabs and Israel.
It is certain that Hamas has succeeded in the first part of its plan, triggering a response from Israel in its efforts to destroy the group that has killed 29,000 Palestinians and injured 69,000. However, Hamas has not yet succeeded in igniting a major war between the Arabs and Israel. Even its allies from the so-called "resistance axis" in Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah have disowned the conflict in practice while paying lip service to Hamas’s war.
However, it is also certain that Hamas will not easily surrender. Now, it is a question of whether Hamas will achieve its second intention through a war between Egypt and Israel through a last stand in Rafah, a means of sparking broader conflict after being abandoned by all its allies in the so-called "resistance axis."
Potential for Cross-Fire in the Battle of Rafah
A battle in Rafah—about which Egypt, the United States, and the European Union have previously warned regarding its consequences for Israel, Egypt, and the entire region—has the strong likelihood of placing Israeli soldiers in confrontation with their Egyptian counterparts perhaps for the first time since October 1973. Washington has repeatedly expressed its concern about humanitarian aspect of an operation in Rafah, with President Biden during his meeting with King Abdullah at the White House stating that it should not continue without a credible plan and adding that "the major military operation in Rafah should not proceed without a credible plan — a credible plan for ensuring the safety and support of more than one million people sheltering there." The American president continued, "Many people there have been displaced — displaced multiple times, fleeing the violence to the north, and now they’re packed into Rafah — exposed and vulnerable. They need to be protected.”
However, Cairo is also extremely concerned about the potential for an Israeli miscalculation with military operations so close to the Egyptian border. Rafah straddles the border between Egypt and Gaza, meaning that an operation in Rafah would bring Israel right up to Egyptian territory. According to Reuters, Egypt has already sent about forty tanks and armored personnel carriers to northeastern Sinai near the border. Any mistake in the expanding circle of violence along the Egyptian-Palestinian-Israeli borders could lead to a disaster. One such incident has already occurred; at the beginning of the Israeli military operations in Gaza on October 22, an Israeli tank hit an Egyptian border watchtower, causing injuries among the Egyptian border surveillance personnel according to the Egyptian army's statement.
In Rafah, Tel Aviv will be faced with tough questions: if Hamas elements succeed in their operations against Israelis and flee across the border with Egypt, will Israel pursue them? Will Israel do so even if it risks the 40-year-old Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty, one of the main pillars of peace in our troubled region and into which the United States itself has invested tremendous political effort and billions of dollars annually to Egypt and Israel to continue chasing Hamas? These are all questions that are currently haunting Cairo.
According to Western and Israeli sources, Egypt has warned Israel of the potential suspension of the Egyptian-Israeli Camp David peace treaty if Israel proceeds with a ground invasion of the Palestinian city of Rafah. The Egyptian warning, which possibly came through closed diplomatic channels, appears to have been deliberately leaked by Cairo to Western media outlets to ensure the message reached Tel Aviv and Washington.
Cairo’s Concerns over the Philadelphi Corridor
Cairo is also preoccupied with the Israeli military buildup on the borders of the Philadelphi Corridor between Egypt and Israel in preparation for taking control of the Palestinian side of Rafah. This would not be the first time Israel controlled the corridor, which lies within Palestinian territory and stretches approximately 14 km in length and about 100 meters in width. It remained under complete Israeli control from the Palestinian side until 2005, alongside a buffer zone with the Egyptian border in the Gaza strip protected by Egyptian police forces.
Yet lengthy negotiations between Israel and Egypt during Israel’s 2005 withdrawal from Gaza concluded with what is known as the security arrangements agreement, which stipulated that Israel would withdraw from the Palestinian side and the Palestinian Authority would take over responsibility, while a limited number of Egyptian border guard forces would be deployed on the Egyptian side. Armed with light weapons, these forces would conduct land, air, and sea patrols in coordination with the Israeli side to prevent smuggling and infiltration. These arrangements continued even after Hamas's coup and its takeover of the Gaza Strip in 2007. Cairo is concerned that Israel's reassertion of control would mean, in the short term, the complete isolation of the Gaza Strip from the world and, presumably, the closure of the Rafah land crossing from the Palestinian side. This could halt the passage of humanitarian aid to the sector and the evacuation of the wounded, sick, and stranded to Egyptian territory. With the Palestinian side of the border crowded with hundreds of thousands of displaced people living in extremely difficult humanitarian conditions, this tactic would result in a humanitarian disaster, both in terms of casualties from military operations and from a lack of relief and medical supplies. On this front, Egypt has also received some criticism; Dr. Sami Abu Shehadeh, a former Arab member of the Israeli Knesset, said in a previous interview with Al Jazeera that Egypt has indeed prevented the displacement of Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, but it can certainly do more. This is especially the case regarding sending more humanitarian aid to the besieged sector, as it is the only country that shares a border with Gaza alongside Israel.
A Wave of Radicalization
The current course insisted upon by Tel Aviv can have catastrophic consequences not only for Israel but also for all the Arab countries that have established good relations with it. Nationalist and Islamic currents could form a populist tsunami wave that sweeps away all recent attempts to establish regional cooperation and stability. Recent events in Gaza have contributed to the rise of the "throat-clearing resistance" currents once again, whether in Yemen, Iraq, or Syria.
A recent poll by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy showed that after years of increasingly negative views of Hamas, three-quarters of Egyptians now view the movement positively. On the other hand, polls in Israel show a general rejection of the idea of a Palestinian state—both in large part consequences of the ongoing war in Gaza that has left thousands dead and wounded and caused unprecedented destruction to the sector's infrastructure.
The rise of extremist rhetoric, especially from elected Israeli officials—from both Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his more extremist partners Ben-Gvir, Smotrich, and Lieberman—has sparked a particular backlash among Egyptians, where the public mood in Egypt is more inclined to take stronger stances against Israel. The incitement of the killing of Palestinians and the displacement of those who remain to Sinai, statements that were used by South Africa in its case against Israel in the International Court of Justice, sharply color many Egyptians’ perceptions of Israel’s operations in Gaza.
The state of anger and public discontent among the Egyptian street has seeped into many officials in Cairo, where Diaa Rashwan, head of the State Information Service, confirmed that the reoccupation of the Philadelphi Corridor would represent a threat to peace between Cairo and Tel Aviv, and amid leaks that Cairo plans to suspend the Camp David peace treaty between it and Israel.
Given the rhetoric of officials and some Israeli analysts about displacing Palestinians to Sinai, many in Cairo may believe that the ultimate goal of a Rafah operation is to put pressure on Palestinians to push them to cross the border to the Egyptian side—throwing the entire humanitarian crisis on Cairo's shoulders. Many circles in Cairo see any displacement, moreover, as an unacceptable “liquidation” of the Palestinian issue.
Security circles view this potential as a significant security threat. Specifically, there is urgent concern that Hamas fighters or other Palestinian factions will infiltrate and use Sinai as a launch pad for terrorist operations against Israel or Egyptian security forces, reviving the Muslim Brotherhood and other extremist Islamic groups that would declare jihad against Israel from Sinai, and plunging the region into an endless cycle of instability.
In reality, securing the Egyptian border with Gaza and ensuring the prevention of infiltration or smuggling is vital for Egypt, perhaps even more so than for Israel. This is especially the case since the past years have witnessed the smuggling of weapons and explosives, as well as the infiltration of elements affiliated with Hamas and other factions to fight alongside Islamist terrorist groups in Sinai.
As Netanyahu and his allies apparently continue to follow the entrapment plan orchestrated by Hamas and prepare for the invasion of Rafah, Cairo is hoping that those in Tel Aviv realize the potential recruitment benefits Hamas, backed by Iran and the so-called resistance axis, see in the continuation of fighting in its favor, especially with the rising toll of civilian casualties. The longer Arabic news covers innocent Palestinian casualties of the war, the more Hamas garners sympathy and cleanses its reputation, transforming in many Arabs minds from an extremist terrorist movement that hijacked Gaza in 2007, conducting terrorist operations targeting Palestinian civilians themselves, into a resistance force.
Cairo is hoping someone will whisper in Netanyahu's ear that while an incursion in Rafah might succeed in defeating Hamas, he could risk igniting the entire region, especially as it faces increasing public pressure to intervene more significantly to prevent the mistreatment of Palestinian civilians in Gaza by the Israeli war machine. Cairo has its own history in Gaza—Gaza itself was administratively part of Egypt until 1967. Even the former Egyptian President Abdel Nasser was besieged along with three other Egyptian battalions in Faluja, northeast of the Gaza Strip, during the 1948 war with Israel, where he was injured. It is difficult to imagine Cairo continuing to ignore these myriad historical, cultural, and humanitarian links between Egypt and the Gaza Strip.
Therefore, both parties must consider the other's concerns and needs. Maintaining coordination is essential for the continued and increase supply of humanitarian air to beleaguered Palestinians. And in the long term, it is possible to move towards a post-conflict scenario in Gaza where Cairo could play a pivotal role if these communication lines remain open. As the past months have proven, peace requires truly committed parties who can work together effectively, find necessary understandings, and ensure shared security and prosperity based on action, not just rhetoric. Israel must also recognize that continued bloody losses among innocent Palestinians increase the likelihood of reigniting the danger of extremist Islamic groups, not only against Israel but against all moderate states in the region, Egypt included.
Egypt is committed to working towards de-escalation. This includes through political mediation and sponsoring negotiations that have resulted in the release of some hostages and the establishment of a humanitarian truce alongside the introduction of thousands of tons of aid and the evacuation of the wounded and stranded. Supplying the Gaza Strip with potable water lines and establishing camps to accommodate the displaced within Gaza allows it to continue its positive role as an impartial mediator.
Moreover, if the relationship escapes this tense period, Cairo can actively engage in launching a political process that achieves stability and peace in the sector with the effective participation of moderate Palestinian parties. It can also work on rebuilding Palestinian institutions and training their staff, as well as participating in reconstruction operations and providing the Gaza Strip with essential services like energy and water.
Egypt can contribute significantly to the region's recovery. But all this requires keeping the lines of communications open as Tel Aviv develops its future plans and avoiding reaching a point where Cairo feels compelled to respond.
**Mohamed Maher is an Egyptian journalist and researcher based in the United States, and a former participant in IVLP's exchange program sponsored by the State Department.