Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on February 07-08/2024
Israeli bombing kills 1 civilian, damages water network in south Lebanon
2 Hezbollah fighters among 10 dead in Israeli strike in Syria
One civilian killed, two wounded in Israeli strike on Khiam
Report: Hochstein carrying two-phase solution for border conflict
Report: US, allies hope to soon announce steps to end Israel-Hezbollah fighting
French FM warns Beirut Israel could wage war
3 Lebanese officials confirm intensive negotiations to end Israel-Hezbollah fighting
Renewed call for dialogue: The Free Patriotic Movement's push for Lebanese consensus
MP Firas Hamdan to LBCI: Some MPs resigned from their national duties by not electing a President
Army commander and German ambassador sign a donation agreement for two million euros to support the Lebanese army
Geagea: Hezbollah will never withdraw from the South
Israeli wineries near Lebanon fear ruined crop as war looms
Nawaf Salam elected head of International Court of Justice
Choucair discusses with Wronecka the latest developments, emphasizing the speedy election of a president
The Maronite Patriarchs": We reject trading with the lives of citizens in the South
The Middle East could get even uglier, with Lebanon’s Iran-backed Hezbollah ready to wage war on Israel/Jonathan Schanzer/New York Post/February 07/2024

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on February 07-08/2024
Two leaders in an Iran-linked militia killed by drone strike in Baghdad
Kataib Hezbollah's senior commander, Abu Baqir al-Saadi, killed in drone strike in eastern Baghdad
Drone strike kills two pro-Iran group members in Baghdad
Drone strike in Baghdad kills high-ranking militia commander, officials say
9 dead and 13 wounded in Israeli strikes on Homs
United Nations: Diplomatic interest in Syria has not translated into a solution to its crisis
Netanyahu rejects Hamas cease-fire demands, vows to fight until 'absolute victory'
Netanyahu dismisses Hamas ceasefire proposal, insists on total victory
New round of Gaza negotiations to start Thursday in Cairo
Hamas' conditions for ceasefire: A closer look at Gaza negotiations
Blinken's discussions with Netanyahu in Israel: Examining Hamas' response to prisoner exchange deal
Blinken briefs Israel on truce talks as war enters 5th month
Israel says studying Hamas response to truce deal
Despite strikes, US still faces threats from Iran-backed forces
Macron says Hamas attack on Israel was 'biggest anti-Semitic massacre of our century'
Saudi says no Israel ties without independent Palestinian state
Raisi says US presence ‘disrupts’ Middle East security
Pakistan's election: Who's running, what's the mood and will anything change?
Bombings in Pakistan kill at least 29 day before parliamentary elections

Titles For The Latest English LCCC  analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources on February 07-08/2024
Algeria and Mali’s colonels/Saber Blidi/The Arab Weekly/February 07/2024
Riyadh’s Chinese and Russian allies gone missing/Haitham El-Zobaidi/The Arab Weekly/February 07/2024
UK Middle East policy unlikely to change under Labour/Mohamed Chebaro/Arab News/February 07, 2024
How the EU can make its new Red Sea mission more effective/Dr. Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg/Arab News/February 07, 2024
The thorny issue of refugees’ right of return can be solved/Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib/Arab News/February 07, 2024
On the background to US-Israeli ‘coexistence’ with Iran/Eyad Abu Shakra/Asharq Al-Awsat/February 07/2024

Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on February 07-08/2024
Israeli bombing kills 1 civilian, damages water network in south Lebanon
NAJIA HOUSSARI/Arab News/February 07, 2024
BEIRUT: Israeli bombing in southern Lebanese border areas on Wednesday left one person dead and caused major damage to water supply networks. A civilian was killed, and two other people injured, one critically, when a missile struck a house in the village of Khiam. And in a separate incident, an Israeli drone attack hit pumping systems drawing spring water from the Wazzani. The right to pump water from the Wazzani, which feeds into the Hasbani River, has been at the center of a row between Lebanon and Israel since 2002. Several towns and villages in the border region are reliant on water supplies from the Wazzani. The strikes came as Israeli warplanes reportedly carried out low-flying sorties over Nabatieh, Arab Salim, Al-Zararieh, and Beirut. Limited Hezbollah military operations against the Israeli army took place in Shebaa Farms and Kfarchouba, in occupied Lebanese territory. Separately, two Hezbollah members were killed during an Israeli raid on Homs, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. And Israeli jets were reported to have launched attacks on the towns of Hula, Bani Hayyan, and Marwahin. Meanwhile, South Lebanon Water Establishment officials were due to assess the scale of the damage caused to the Wazzani water pumps. Water from the spring eventually flows through other tributaries into the Jordan River, which feeds Lake Tiberias, Israel’s main freshwater source. In 2004, Lebanon opened a pumping station on the Wazzani River, increasing drinking supplies for 20 southern villages to 11 million cubic meters per year, sparking outrage from Israel. Ali Taher Yassin, president of the Union of Jabal Amel Municipalities, told Arab News: “The Wazzani pumps directly cover the Wazzani region, Ain Arab, and a significant part of Khiam, Kfarkila, Odaisseh, Markaba, Houla, Rab Al-Thalathin, and Blida. “They also supply the pumping stations of Markaba and Taybeh indirectly, which amounts to 42 southern villages. “The pumps are functioning at only one-third of their capacity due to existing faults that the state has not yet been able to repair. “The dispute with the Israeli side was over the amount of water being pumped. “It is an open area, and the Israeli objective of bombing it is to make people thirsty and harm the area,” he said. Also on Wednesday, a planned visit by Egyptian Minister of Foreign Affairs Sameh Shoukry to Lebanon, and the capital Beirut, was postponed. Following a meeting, the Maronite bishops warned “against the ongoing attempts, internationally and locally,” for the demarcation of borders between Lebanon and Israel “devoid of any clear international guarantees.” The bishops noted that only Lebanon’s president had the authority to negotiate on the issue, and that the only way to safeguard the border area was “by improving the political and diplomatic environment.”

2 Hezbollah fighters among 10 dead in Israeli strike in Syria
Agence France Presse/February 07/2024
Six civilians and two Hezbollah fighters were among 10 people killed in Israeli air strikes on the central Syrian city of Homs early Wednesday, a war monitor said. "Ten people, including six civilians and two Hezbollah fighters, were killed in Israeli strikes on a building in the Hamra neighborhood of Homs," the head of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, Rami Abdel Rahman, told AFP. The strikes completely levelled the building in one of the city's most affluent districts, and also hit other targets linked to Iran-backed groups, Abdel Rahman said. Three students and a woman were among the dead, two of whom have yet to be identified, Abdel Rahman added. Two Hezbollah fighters were among the dead, a source close to the Iran-backed Lebanese group confirmed to AFP. The Syrian defense ministry gave no precise casualty figures. "The Israeli enemy launched air strikes against a number of sites in Homs and its countryside... killing and wounding a number of civilians," it said. State television aired footage of rescue teams searching the rubble of a collapsed building for survivors. Israel has launched hundreds of air strikes on Syria, since civil war broke out in 2011. It has stepped up its campaign against Iran-backed forces in its northern neighbor since its war with Hamas in Gaza began on October 7. Last week, the United States too carried out air strikes on Iran-backed groups in Syria and Iraq, killing 45 people in retaliation for a drone attack that killed three U.S. soldiers in Jordan. Israel rarely comments on individual strikes in Syria but has said repeatedly that it will not allow Iran to expand its presence.

One civilian killed, two wounded in Israeli strike on Khiam
Naharnet/February 07/2024 
A civilian was killed Wednesday in a drone airstrike on a house in the southern border town of al-Khiam. Two other civilians were injured, media reports said. Israeli warplanes had earlier at dawn targeted al-Wazzani water pumps, after two airstrikes overnight on the southern border towns of Houla and Bani Hayyan. Hezbollah for its part attacked surveillance equipment in the Ramia post and soldiers in the Zebdine post in the occupied Shebaa Farms. Hezbollah had announced earlier on Wednesday the death of two of its fighters as the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said two Hezbollah fighters were killed in Israeli strikes on a building in Homs. Meanwhile, hundreds of Amal supporters attended in Tyre the funeral of two fighters killed Monday in an Israeli airstrike on the southern town of Beit Leef. On Tuesday, the Israeli army said that strikes from Lebanon "lightly wounded" two soldiers and that it retaliated with artillery fire. It said its fighter jets had also targeted bases of Hezbollah near Marwahin and Mays al-Jabal in southern Lebanon.

Report: Hochstein carrying two-phase solution for border conflict
Naharnet/February 07/2024 
U.S. mediator Amos Hochstein is carrying a two-phase solution for the border conflict between Israel and Hezbollah and its implementation hinges on the halt of the war in Gaza, a prominent political source said. During the first phase, Hezbollah and its elite Radwan force would withdraw to the area north of the Litani River, the source told al-Joumhouria newspaper in remarks published Wednesday. “The second phase involves turning the area that is eight to 10 kilometers from the border into a safe zone in which 12,000 Lebanese Army soldiers would deploy alongside forces from UNIFIL,” the source added. “The discussions are very serious,” the source went on to say.

Report: US, allies hope to soon announce steps to end Israel-Hezbollah fighting
Naharnet/February 07/2024 
The U.S. and four of its European allies hope to announce in the next few weeks a series of commitments made by Israel and Hezbollah to diffuse tensions and restore calm to the Israel-Lebanon border, two Israeli officials and a source briefed on the issue told U.S. news portal Axios. Amos Hochstein, one of U.S. President Joe Biden's closest and most trusted advisers, met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant in Israel on Sunday and discussed his proposal for “new understandings” on the border, Axios said. “The proposal is based on the model of the 1996 ‘Grapes of Wrath’ understandings between Israel and Hezbollah that were declared by the U.S. and other world powers to end the Israeli military operation in Lebanon at the time,” Axios added. The sources said the new understandings would not be officially signed by the parties but the U.S. and four European allies -- the UK, France, Germany and Italy -- would issue a statement detailing the commitments each side has agreed to make. The five Western powers will also announce economic benefits to boost the Lebanese economy to “sweeten the deal for Hezbollah,” the sources said. The understandings are expected to focus on the partial implementation of U.N. Security Council resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah. They would include a commitment by both parties to stop the skirmishes on the border that have been taking place since the Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israel.
“The understandings are not expected to require Hezbollah to move all its forces north of the Litani River as resolution 1701 demands, but only eight to 10 kilometers (five to six miles) from the Israeli border,” the sources told Axios. “Due to the Israeli airstrikes, Hezbollah has already moved most of its elite Radwan force seven to 10 kilometers (four to six miles) from the blue line in nearly all the areas along the Israeli-Lebanese border,” Axios said. According to the sources, the understandings would be based on the principle of "freezing in place": Hezbollah will not have to withdraw its forces but only commit to not sending them back to areas along the border where they were positioned before Oct. 7. Instead, the Lebanese Army will send 10,000 to 12,000 troops to the area along the border with Israel, the sources said. “Israel would also have to take steps to diffuse tensions. The U.S. has asked Israel to stop the overflights its fighter jets are conducting in Lebanese airspace, according to the sources. Israel hasn't rejected this request,” Axios added. Under the proposal, Israel would also commit to pulling out some of the forces -- mostly reservists -- it has amassed along the border in the last four months, the sources said. Contacted by Axios, the White House declined to comment but a U.S. official said that getting "Israeli and Lebanese citizens back into their homes, living in peace and security is of the utmost importance." "We continue to explore and exhaust all diplomatic options ... to achieve this goal," the official said. The official added that some of the elements described by the sources are not true, but would not give any specifics. The U.S. hopes a possible hostage deal and pause in the fighting between Israel and Hamas in Gaza would make it easier to calm the situation along the Israel-Lebanon border, but it is preparing to announce the understandings even if that doesn't happen, the sources said.

French FM warns Beirut Israel could wage war
Agence France Presse/February 07/2024
France's top diplomat has warned officials in Beirut that Israel is threatening to wage war on its northern neighbor to return citizens displaced by cross-border fire, Lebanon's foreign minister said. Hezbollah and Israel have been exchanging fire on a daily basis for nearly four months in the wake of the Gaza war, forcing tens of thousands of people out of their homes on both sides of the border. French Foreign Minister Stephane Sejourne "warned us that the Israelis might launch a war, which they say would be to return" displaced citizens to their homes, Abdallah Bou Habib told reporters after meeting his French counterpart. "We told the French that we do not want a war" with Israel, Bou Habib said, adding that Beirut sought "a border deal with them" facilitated by the United Nations, France and the United States. Sejourne met caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati, army chief Joseph Aoun and parliament speaker Nabih Berri, a Hezbollah ally, as part of his first regional tour since taking office. In Jerusalem on Monday, Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz told Sejourne that "time is running out" to reach a diplomatic solution in south Lebanon. Sejourne is the latest in a succession of Western ministers to visit Beirut amid concerns the Gaza war could spark a wider conflict involving Iranian allies around the Middle East. A source close to the French foreign minister told AFP that he brought to the table "diplomatic initiatives to avoid escalation" between the two enemy states, without providing further details. Sejourne sought to "encourage each stakeholder to clearly signal its commitment to security and peace in southern Lebanon and northern Israel," the source said.
'Total peace' -
A major focus of recent diplomatic efforts has been to reinforce a U.N. Security Council resolution that ended a 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah. Resolution 1701 called for all armed personnel to pull back north of the Litani River, some 30 kilometers from the border with Israel, except for Lebanese state security forces and U.N. peacekeepers. While Hezbollah has not had a visible military presence in the border area since 2006, the group still holds sway over large parts of the south, where it has built tunnels, hideouts and launched attacks into Israel. Asked about Lebanon's demands, Bou Habib said, "Help us recruit about 6,000 to 7,000" soldiers "so they can be deployed in the south," denying that the move aimed to comply with Israeli calls for Hezbollah's withdrawal from the border region. "We really want total peace and for Israel to completely withdraw from all Lebanese land," he added, in reference to disputed border areas. Bou Habib is set to meet his Egyptian counterpart Sameh Shoukry on Wednesday. At least 226 people have been killed in Lebanon, mostly Hezbollah fighters but also at least 26 civilians, according to an AFP tally. In northern Israel, nine soldiers and six civilians have been killed, Israeli officials have said.

3 Lebanese officials confirm intensive negotiations to end Israel-Hezbollah fighting
Associated Press/February 07/2024
Foreign diplomats have put forward proposals to bring calm to the volatile Lebanon-Israel border, in parallel with the ongoing Gaza cease-fire negotiations, according to officials Wednesday. This includes a pullback by Hezbollah from the frontier and the deployment of thousands of additional Lebanese Army troops. The proposal put forward by European diplomats would be based on the "partial implementation" of the U.N. Security Council resolution that ended a 34-day war between Israel and Hezbollah in 2006, two Lebanese political officials and a Lebanese diplomat based in Europe told The Associated Press.
The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to disclose details of the talks. Israel has publicly insisted on a full implementation of the resolution meaning that Hezbollah has to move its fighters north of the Litani River, which is more than 20 kilometers north of the border.
Iran-backed Hezbollah, a Hamas ally, has refused to be part of the discussions while the Israel-Hamas war is ongoing, but once a cease-fire is in place, the group said it was open to moving its forces away from the border by a few miles in exchange for concessions by Israel over 13 disputed border areas, one of the officials familiar with the talks said Wednesday. Iran's regional militant group allies have said that once a cease-fire in Gaza comes into effect, all attacks by Iran-backed groups in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen would stop. Britain and France's top diplomats, among others, have recently visited Beirut amid concerns the Israel-Hamas war could expand to Lebanon where exchanges of fire have taken place on an almost daily basis between Israeli troops and Hezbollah fighters for nearly four months.
The violence along the Lebanon-Israel border has displaced tens of thousands of people on both sides. Israel has issued increasingly stern warnings that Hezbollah should pull back from the border or it will launch a war on Lebanon. Last Thursday, British Foreign Secretary David Cameron arrived in Lebanon with a plan he said would include Britain training Lebanese army forces to carry out more security work in the border region. France's Foreign Minister Stephane Sejourne was also in Beirut on Tuesday, with a proposal to ease the tension. He warned that the border situation is "very concerning" and that Israel is serious in its threats against Lebanon, one of the Lebanese officials said. Sejourne 's suggestion called for a bigger role for the Lebanese Army in the border area and for negotiations regarding 13 disputed points along the border since Israel withdrew from southern Lebanon in 2000, according to the Lebanese diplomat based in Europe. The diplomat said there is "initial understanding" regarding seven of the 13 areas. Apart from those, one of the officials familiar with the regional talks said Hezbollah would demand that Israel withdraw from the Lebanese part of the town of Ghajar, which is split in half by the border.
He said the proposal on the table calls for Hezbollah to pull back 7 km from the border -- the range of the anti-tank missiles the group has been using most frequently during the clashes — and for the deployment of 12,000 Lebanese Army troops in the area. He added that many members of Hezbollah's elite Radwan Force live in the border area but the group had no "fixed bases" there. Amos Hochstein, a senior advisor to U.S. President Joe Biden, was in Israel over the weekend. He reported progress in talks concerning Hezbollah's pullback from the border area, according to Israeli media. Hochstein had successfully mediated a maritime border deal between Lebanon and Israel in 2022. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Israeli leaders on Wednesday after Hamas put forward a detailed plan for a new cease-fire and hostage release deal, but both sides remain dug in on thus far elusive goals as the war enters its fifth month. The Lebanese politician familiar with the talks said that Hamas would be willing to give up political power in Gaza in return for a reconstruction plan. He added that any Palestinian ruling body that might take over would include people trusted by Hamas leadership. However, Hamas leaders in Gaza including Yahya Sinwar, have rejected an Israeli proposal for them to leave the enclave, similar to a deal under which Palestinian Liberation Organization leaders evacuated Lebanon in 1982.
The politician, who is in contact with Hamas officials, said Sinwar has been leading the negotiations with Israel from his hideout in Gaza.

Renewed call for dialogue: The Free Patriotic Movement's push for Lebanese consensus
LBCI/February 07/2024
The Free Patriotic Movement renewed its call for dialogues among the Lebanese, resulting in consensus on electing a qualified president with the specifications to lead the next phase according to a reform program agreed upon with a reformist government that collaborates with the parliament to enact reform legislation. It stated, "The movement, believing in dialogue, actively initiating and responding to it, is keen on its success to lead to the election of a president effectively.""This necessitates its efforts to secure the conditions for its success, ensuring them both in form and substance through its contribution and clear understanding of the dialogue's isights, form, mechanism, and program because its failure leads not only to the non-election of the president but also to prolonging this process further!" it added.

MP Firas Hamdan to LBCI: Some MPs resigned from their national duties by not electing a President
LBCI/February 07/2024
MP Firas Hamdan believes that some MPs have resigned from their national duties by obstructing the election of the President of the Republic through their obstruction of the second session. On LBCI's "Nharkom Said" TV show, he emphasized that he is not concerned with any settlement that occurs at the expense of the Lebanese people. He pointed out that when the internal system is bypassed, and the same practices continue for years by violating the constitution and the work of institutions, it naturally leads to problems. Hamdan said, "From within the committees, we try to amend, propose, and reject the legal articles presented to reach the general assembly and be voted on, such as the file of maritime properties, municipalities, public works, communications, Beirut port, and others.""We try to clarify the reasons for everything that happens and educate the Lebanese public opinion, but this is not enough," he continued. Regarding the Bloc of Change, he clarified that "diversity is an asset for us, provided it does not undermine the constants on which we were elected, and we have shifted the confrontation with the system from the street to the parliament." In response to a question, he said: "Launching the Change Alliance Bloc is unnecessary since there is no actual executive value for launching a bloc as long as coordination exists, and therefore the matter is a formality." As for the budget, he considered it catastrophic for citizens due to tax and fee increases without any corresponding services.

Army commander and German ambassador sign a donation agreement for two million euros to support the Lebanese army
LBCI/February 07/2024
Army Commander General Joseph Aoun and the German Ambassador to Lebanon, Kurt Georg Stoeckl-Stillfried, signed an agreement through which the German authorities provided a donation worth two million euros to support the army.  One million euros would be allocated to secure fuel and one million to support medical care. This donation comes as an addition to a similar donation provided previously. General Aoun considered this assistance important in light of the current exceptional circumstances, expressing his appreciation to the German authorities for standing by the military institution. Likewise, the German ambassador affirmed his country's commitment to supporting the army through various means, given its vital tasks.

Geagea: Hezbollah will never withdraw from the South
Naharnet/February 07/2024 
Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea has accused Hezbollah of seeking to “obtain the presidency and Lebanon’s government in return for withdrawing weapons from the border” with Israel. “These conditions are certainly unrealistic and rejected by the Lebanese, seeing as there will be no bargains nor settlements at the expense of Lebanon and its sovereignty,” Geagea said in an interview with Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera. Responding to a question, Geagea stressed that “Hezbollah will never withdraw from the South.”“It is deceiving the Americans and making them believe that,” he added.
He also said that anyone thinking of a bargain involving the presidency and the border situation would be “dreaming.”“Our opposition will not allow any Hezbollah president,” Geagea emphasized. “Unfortunately we have not managed to disarm them, but we have prevented them from reaching the presidency,” he added.

Israeli wineries near Lebanon fear ruined crop as war looms
Agence France Presse/February 07/2024
Black clouds loom over grapevines in northern Israel on hills that stretch to the Lebanese border, where months of violence have raised fears of a wider war. The tense border area -- where the Israeli army has traded deadly fire with Hezbollah for months -- can be seen from atop the Dalton Winery's fermentation vats. Alex Haruni, the vineyard's owner, worries that if a full-scale war were to break out, it could also ruin the coming vintage. "That's quite a lot of wine," he said. The vines must be pruned before spring, and nature won't wait for peace. "We have until March to get this done," Haruni said. "If not, the year is gone."Israel has been at war in Gaza since the Palestinian militant group Hamas launched its October 7 attack, and has also traded fire with Lebanon's Iran-backed Hezbollah, a Hamas ally. Almost four months of conflict have heaped new challenges on Israel's wine industry, including labor shortages and falling demand in the war-weary nation, a year after extreme heat caused a poor harvest. Along the U.N.-patrolled border with Lebanon, where vineyards and orchards crowd the mountain slopes, the situation is particularly precarious ahead of the growing season, experts say. Hezbollah has fired rockets and missiles almost daily since the Gaza war began, killing nine Israeli soldiers and six civilians, according to Israeli officials. Israel's strikes on Lebanon have meanwhile killed more than 210 people in southern Lebanon, most of them Hezbollah fighters, according to an AFP tally. There are fears of worse to come. Israel and Hezbollah last fought a major war in 2006. At the time, rockets rained down on Israel's north during the summer, but a ceasefire was struck in time for growers to harvest their grapes. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said on Sunday he had directed Israel's air force to "point the noses of the planes north and prepare for any harm that may come."
'Manpower crisis'
Rami Na'aman, owner of a winery in Ramot Naftali, an Israeli village near the Lebanese border, said the fighting had forced him and thousands of others from their homes. He can only reach his establishment twice a week, provided the military hasn't closed the roads. The head of the Bank of Israel, Amir Yaron, warned last month that the war's "adverse economic impact... is substantial," especially on the construction and tourism industries. Migal, an Israeli research institute, in November published a survey of 389 farmers, more than three quarters of whom projected an "average 35 percent drop in production and income." The farming sector faces "the greatest manpower crisis since the state's founding" in 1948, the agriculture ministry said recently. Thousands of foreign workers have fled Israel since the start of the war, and many agriculture laborers have been called up to the army as reservists. The government has barred entry to tens of thousands of Palestinian laborers from the occupied West Bank and the besieged Gaza Strip. Like other sectors, the wine industry has been hit by these problems. Eyal Miles cultivates vines and cherries on the slopes around Kerem Ben Zimra, a farming hamlet home to four wineries just six kilometers from Lebanon. Miles, too, is worried about whether the pruning can be done by spring. The field-hands he typically hires to help on his seven hectares of land, he said, are "afraid to work here due to the proximity to the border."
Falling consumption
At Dalton Winery, a Hezbollah projectile damaged vines in one plot near the frontier, forcing the business to issue field workers with helmets and flak jackets. Around 10 percent of its vines are in closed military zones and inaccessible. Visitor centers, usually a key source of revenue for northern wineries of all sizes, now lie empty with tourists steering clear of the region. On top of these problems, the war has "clearly caused a decline in wine consumption" across Israel, said Haim Gan, a wine industry expert and founder of The Grape Man, a wine tasting emporium. He blamed the call-up of more than 300,000 reservists, the postponement of weddings and other celebrations, and the generally "lifeless, unpleasant atmosphere" in the country. At Dalton Winery, the slate of difficulties means that Haruni is considering laying off staff. Miles, meanwhile, said a sharp drop in visits to his business has meant that "since October 7, the winery is closed," while online sales barely pick up the slack. He remained optimistic, however, that despite the threat of a war in the north, "we will overcome this." By the end of March, he predicted, "it will all be pruned and it will be ready for the coming harvest."

Nawaf Salam elected head of International Court of Justice
Naharnet/February 07/2024 
Former Lebanese ambassador to the U.N. Nawaf Salam, whose name was once floated as a potential PM candidate, has been elected as the head of the International Court of Justice for a three-year period. Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati called Salam and congratulated him on the new post. Salam is the second Arab to be elected as president of the International Court of Justice and the first Lebanese judge. Born in December 1953, Salam is a diplomat, jurist, and academic. He was elected on November 9, 2017 as a judge on the International Court of Justice for the 2018-2027 term. He served as Lebanon's Ambassador and Permanent Representative to the United Nations in New York from 2007 to 2017, during which he held the positions of President of the Security Council and Vice President of the General Assembly. Salam received a doctorate in political science from the Institut d'Études Politiques de Paris (Sciences Po) in 1992, an LLM from Harvard Law School in 1991, a doctorate in history from Sorbonne University in 1979, and a Diploma from the Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales in 1974. From 1979 to 1981, Salam was a lecturer on the contemporary history of the Middle East at Sorbonne University. In 1981, he left Paris to spend an academic year as a visiting scholar at the Weatherhead Center for International Affairs at Harvard University. Between 1985 and 1989, he was a lecturer at the American University of Beirut, during which time he also practiced law as an associate at Takla Law Firm. He was a visiting researcher at Harvard Law School from 1989 to 1990, and a foreign legal consultant at Edwards & Angell LLP from 1989 to 1992. He resumed his practice at the Takla Law Firm in 1992 as well as his teaching of International Law and International Relations at the American University of Beirut. He was appointed Visiting associate professor of Political Science in 2003, and later associate professor of Political Science in 2005. From 2005 to 2006, he was the Chairman of the Political Studies and Public Administration Department.
Salam served as a member of the Executive Bureau of the Economic and Social Council of Lebanon from 1999 to 2002 and as a member of the Lebanese National Commission of UNESCO from 2000 to 2004. In 2005 and 2006, he was a member and Secretary General of The National Commission on Electoral Reform which was entrusted with the task of preparing the draft of a new electoral law for Lebanon. He has also served on the board of trustees of the Lebanese Center for Policy Studies (LCPS), a non-partisan think tank whose mission is to produce and advocate policies that improve governance in Lebanon and the Arab world. In 1996, he co-founded the Lebanese Association for Democratic Elections (LADE), a non-governmental monitoring organization that works to promote the fair and transparent conduct of parliamentary and municipal elections. Salam's mandate at the U.N. was marked by his repeated interventions before the Security Council calling for security and stability in South Lebanon through the implementation of United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701, promoting the policy of "disassociation" from the Syrian conflict, and seeking an end to impunity through the establishment of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon in the matter of the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. Salam was awarded in 2012 the French Legion of Honor (Légion d'honneur) at the rank of Officer (Officier) by President Nicolas Sarkozy. Salam has written books and articles on political and constitutional reform, electoral law reform, overcoming sectarianism, and fighting corruption and promoting accountability through strengthening the independence of the judiciary and the rule of law. He has also written on the question of citizenship and civil society in the Arab world as well as on the development of international law.

Choucair discusses with Wronecka the latest developments, emphasizing the speedy election of a president
LBCI/February 07/2024
The head of the economic bodies, former minister Mohammad Choucair, received on Wednesday at the Chamber of Commerce Industry of Beirut and Mount Lebanon the Special Coordinator of the United Nations in Lebanon, Joanna Wronecka. They discussed the latest developments in Lebanon, particularly the election of a president, the functioning of constitutional institutions, and addressing the Syrian refugee crisis in Lebanon. After a lengthy discussion, both of them expressed their "deep regret on the presidential vacancy after more than a year and three months." They emphasized "the need to expedite the election of a president and the formation of a new government, with their priority being the implementation of an economic, financial, and social recovery plan, comprehensive reforms, and reaching an agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF)." They also emphasized, in the face of the social collapse occurring in Lebanon, the "need to implement extensive social support programs to protect the Lebanese society." They addressed the issue of Syrian refugees, with Choucair presenting Wronecka with the significant risks posed by the Syrian refugee crisis on various levels in Lebanon and for the Lebanese people. He warned that "Lebanon and the Lebanese society can no longer bear more, and that this crisis has become an existential one for Lebanon.” They stressed on the "necessity of broad international cooperation to find serious and effective solutions to the refugee crisis, ensuring a safe and dignified return to their homeland."

The Maronite Patriarchs": We reject trading with the lives of citizens in the South
Al Kalema On Line/February 07/2024
On Wednesday, February 7, 2024, the Maronite Patriarchs held their monthly meeting at the Patriarchal See in Bkerké, under the chairmanship of His Beatitude Cardinal Mar Bechara Boutros al-Rahi, the total patriarch of the blessed. They discussed ecclesiastical and national affairs.
At the end of the meeting, they issued the following statement: "The fathers stand in full support of what His Beatitude has expressed in rejecting the trading with the lives of citizens in southern Lebanon, who have been narrowed by the threatening field escalation to lives and properties. They condemn in the strongest terms attempts to undermine the declaration of Bkerké's support for these citizens and its call to lift the sword of killing and destruction from them. They express their deep pain at the dire situations driven by unique policies, while what was required was vigilance over the border area, by enhancing the political and diplomatic atmospheres to implement UN resolution 1701, not to persist in exploding its days and nights."
They added, "The fathers reiterate that the ongoing and escalating vacuum in the state is a result of the vacuum in the presidency of the republic. As they follow the movement of the Quintet Committee again on the line of achieving the presidential entitlement, they hope for a positive and rapid conclusion to it, which limits the suffering of Lebanon and the Lebanese. This does not exempt the honorable deputies from their constitutional duty to expedite the election of a new president."
The statement continued, "The fathers believe that the approval of the general budget, with its flaws and defects, and the exposure of citizens' rights and social justice, do not exempt officials from ensuring the prevention of waste in public funds and ensuring the collection of state resources and facilitating investment conditions. This requires maintaining state monitoring and accountability mechanisms and activating them to fulfill their roles completely."
They warned of "ongoing international and local attempts to pass a suspicious demarcation of the borders between Lebanon and Israel, devoid of any clear and consistent international guarantees. They draw attention to the fact that negotiations in this matter remain the prerogative of the president of the republic, and that what is done outside his sponsorship, management, and consent is null and void."
The statement also called for "declaring a state of emergency in the relevant administrations, municipalities, and municipal unions, to address the collapses that have affected the soil, roads, and bridges in several areas, due to the successive rains and floods, especially at the level of international roads."
The statement pointed out that "next Friday, February 9, coincides with the feast of our holy father St. Maron. The fathers, on this great occasion, join their sons and daughters, and Christians in general, and all Lebanese, seeking God's mercy for the afflicted homeland, and hoping for its salvation and return to the atmosphere of peace, stability, and prosperity. As we begin the blessed Great Lent next Monday, we, along with the sons and daughters of our Church, are invited to commit to fasting, repentance, prayer, and acts of love, according to the directives of His Beatitude and Eminence, our Patriarch, in his general message for this fast, and we ask God to make it a time of blessings and goodness."

The Middle East could get even uglier, with Lebanon’s Iran-backed Hezbollah ready to wage war on Israel
Jonathan Schanzer/New York Post/February 07/2024
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/126813/126813/
A brutal war is looming between the Lebanese terrorist group Hezbollah and Israel.
The Iran-backed radicals began firing anti-tank missiles and drones at Israel Oct. 8, one day after Hamas carried out its mass slaughter of 1,200 Israelis.
Four months later, the attacks — more than 700 and counting — haven’t stopped.
Israel has gotten the better of Hezbollah in most of these exchanges, destroying the group’s strategic assets and killing nearly 200 well-trained fighters.
But it has been at a terrible price.
Nearly 100,000 Israeli citizens of communities along the border have been forced to flee their homes.
Admittedly, roughly that many Lebanese citizens have fled their homes, too.
But that’s of little consolation to the Israelis.
Hezbollah has achieved something meaningful.
And the Israelis are warning — justifiably — their patience is running out.
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant recently issued an ultimatum: Either Hezbollah moves its forces north of the Litani River, which runs laterally across the middle of Lebanon, or Israel will unleash the full force of its military.
The Israeli demand is buttressed by UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which calls on Hezbollah to do exactly that.
But there are a few obstacles to restoring order.
For one, Hezbollah is not interested in withdrawing.
This is a group that exists for one reason: to wage war against Israel.
Nor are the group’s patrons in Iran interested in ordering the group to stand down.
Hezbollah is the Islamic Republic’s most powerful proxy.
And while Tehran has yet to unleash Hezbollah to fight a full-blown war, the regime appears content to let this crisis escalate.
The specter of a nasty, multifront war in the Middle East during the American election cycle now has the Biden administration’s full attention.
The White House has dispatched its Lebanon envoy, Amos Hochstein, to Israel in a bid to end the standoff.
The French are trying to help, too.
Some reports suggest Hochstein is making progress toward a diplomatic solution.
But Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib has reportedly rejected the Israeli and US demands that Hezbollah head north.
This reinforces what we already know: Iran’s terror proxy controls the Lebanese government.
It explains why Lebanon has collapsed both economically and politically in recent years.
In its current state, Lebanon can hardly afford another war.
The last battle between Israel and Hezbollah, in 2006, was devastating. Lebanon sustained significant damage and required massive international assistance to rebuild.
The looming war would likely be worse, with Israel vowing to enact its Dahiyeh Doctrine: Named after the Beirut suburb of Dahiyeh under full Hezbollah control, it entails the total annihilation of every Hezbollah enclave.
The big difference between this looming battle and the last, though, is Hezbollah’s capabilities.
Thanks to Iran, the group has stockpiled an estimated 200,000 rockets and missiles.
More than 1,000 of those are precision-guided munitions, which can strike Israeli strategic infrastructure with lethal precision.
Hezbollah’s fighters are also more professionally trained than they were during the last tussle, having fought alongside the Russian and Iranian militaries in Syria.
In short, Israel would almost certainly sustain more damage and casualties than it did in 2006.
In fact, this Middle East war promises to be more brutal than any other in recent memory.
Nobody in Israel welcomes this, particularly while the fighting in Gaza grinds on.
But some Israeli officials believe it might be necessary.
They note that Hezbollah aggression continues unabated, and it necessitates a response.
And every day the group is allowed to grow stronger means a more painful war for Israel in the future.
Better to drop the gloves now, they say.
Better to do it now, with the border already cleared of civilians.
And better to do it with the country already mobilized for war.
The White House is doing everything possible to defuse this powder keg.
Diplomacy should be given every chance to succeed.
But it’s time to face facts.
Diplomacy may not prevail.
War may be inevitable.
Washington must ensure the Israelis have all the ammunition and weapons they need to win.
The clock is ticking.
**Jonathan Schanzer is senior vice president for research at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. X: @JSchanzer
https://nypost.com/2024/02/06/opinion/the-middle-east-could-get-even-uglier-with-lebanons-iran-backed-hezbollah-ready-to-wage-war-on-israel/

Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on February 07-08/2024
Two leaders in an Iran-linked militia killed by drone strike in Baghdad
AFP/February 07/2024
At least three people, including two leaders of Kata'ib Hezbollah, an armed Iraqi militia linked to Iran, were killed in a drone strike on a car in Baghdad on Wednesday evening, according to a security source and a source within the Hezbollah Brigades. The source within the militia, preferring not to disclose their identity, stated that among the casualties was a prominent leader responsible for the "military affairs in Syria" within Kata'ib Hezbollah. The security source, a representative of the Iraqi Ministry of Interior, confirmed the death of leaders from the militia. In recent weeks, Iran-linked factions have launched dozens of attacks against US forces in the Middle East.

Kataib Hezbollah's senior commander, Abu Baqir al-Saadi, killed in drone strike in eastern Baghdad
Reuters/February 07/2024
Senior commander Abu Baqir al-Saadi of Kataib Hezbollah, an Iran-backed armed group in Iraq that the Pentagon linked to an attack that killed three US troops, died in a drone strike on a vehicle in eastern Baghdad on Wednesday night, two security sources said. One of the sources said three people were killed and that the vehicle targeted was used by Iraq's Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), a state security agency composed of dozens of armed groups, many of them close to Iran. Kataib Hezbollah fighters and commanders are part of the PMF. Three US troops were killed in January in a drone attack near the Jordan-Syria border that the Pentagon said bore the "footprints" of Kataib Hezbollah. The group then announced it was suspending military operations against US troops in the region.Iraq and Syria have witnessed near-daily tit-for-tat attacks between hardline Iran-backed armed groups and US forces stationed in the region since the Gaza war began in October. US officials did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Wednesday's strike. The US struck Iran-backed Iraqi groups in Iraq and Syria last weekend in what it said was just the beginning of its response to the killing of the three US soldiers in a drone attack. In January, a US drone strike killed a senior militia commander in central Baghdad, an attack Washington said came in response to drone and rocket attacks on its forces. On Wednesday, Iraqi special forces were on high alert in Baghdad and further units were deployed inside the Green Zone housing international diplomatic missions including the US embassy, a security source said.'

Drone strike kills two pro-Iran group members in Baghdad
AFP/February 07, 2024
BAGHDAD: A drone strike on Wednesday hit a vehicle in the Iraqi capital Baghdad, killing two commanders of a pro-Iran group, a security source and a group member said. The attack comes as tensions soar with the United States carrying out strikes on pro-Iran groups in Iraq and Syria amid the war in the Gaza Strip. One of those killed was a commander of the Kataeb Hezbollah group in charge of military affairs in Syria, a member of the pro-Iran Iraqi group told AFP on condition of anonymity. The source named the commander as Abu Baqr Al-Saadi. The security source also reported the deaths of two officials from Kataeb Hezbollah, which has taken part in the past in attacks on US forces in Iraq. There was no immediate claim of responsibility for the drone strike. But it came nearly a week after the United States struck 85 targets at seven different sites in Iraq and neighboring Syria of Iranian and pro-Iranian forces.
Those strikes were in retaliation for an attack at the end of January on a base in Jordan that killed three US soldiers. US and allied troops have been attacked more than 165 times in the Middle East since mid-October in a campaign waged by Iran-backed armed groups angered by US support for Israel in the war in Gaza. The United States considers Kataeb Hezbollah a terrorist group, and officials in Washington had said they believed the group was behind the Jordan attack. At the end of January the pro-Iran group said it was suspending its attacks against US forces. Earlier a security source said the drone had fired three rockets at a 4X4 car in the east Baghdad neighborhood of Machtal that targeted two officials from the Kataeb Hezbollah. Another security official had said the vehicle carried an official from Hashed Al-Shaabi, a coalition of mainly pro-Iran paramilitaries now integrated into Iraq’s regular security forces. An AFP photographer said security forces deployed in the neighborhood barring access to it after the attack. Later in the evening the carcass of a car was removed from the area. The Hashed Al-Shaabi has said that 16 of its fighters were killed in Friday’s US strikes and 36 people wounded. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights war monitor said at least 23 pro-Iranian fighters were killed in Syria. “Targeting the Hashed Al-Shaabi is playing with fire,” the group’s leader Faleh Al-Fayyad warned on Sunday. The United States and Iraq have opened talks on the future of the US-led troop presence in January, following a request by the Iraqi prime minister for a timetable for their withdrawal. The United States has some 900 troops in Syria and 2,500 in Iraq as part of an international coalition against the Daesh group.Its troops in Iraq are deployed at the invitation of Baghdad, but those in Syria are deployed in areas outside government control.

Drone strike in Baghdad kills high-ranking militia commander, officials say
QASSIM ABDUL-ZAHRA and AAMER MADHANI/February 7, 2024
BAGHDAD (AP) — A U.S. drone strike hit a car in the Iraqi capital Wednesday night, killing three members of the powerful Kataib Hezbollah militia, including a high-ranking commander, officials said. The strike came on a main thoroughfare in the Mashtal neighborhood in eastern Baghdad. A crowd gathered as emergency response teams picked through the wreckage. Security forces closed off the heavily guarded Green Zone, where a number of diplomatic compounds are located, amid calls for protesters to storm the U.S. embassy. Two U.S. officials familiar with the matter said that a senior Kataib Hezbollah commander was targeted in a U.S. strike on Wednesday in Iraq. They were not authorized to comment publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity. Two officials with Iran-backed militias in Iraq said that one of the three killed was Wissam Mohammed “Abu Bakr” al-Saadi, the commander in charge of Kataib Hezbollah’s operations in Syria. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they weren't authorized to speak to journalists. The strike came amid roiling tensions in the region and days after the U.S. military launched an air assault on dozens of sites in Iraq and Syria used by Iranian-backed militias and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard in retaliation for a drone strike that killed three U.S. troops in Jordan in late January. The U.S. has blamed the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, a broad coalition of Iran-backed militias, for the attack in Jordan, and officials have said they suspect Kataib Hezbollah in particular of leading it. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq has regularly claimed strikes on bases housing U.S. troops in Iraq and Syria against the backdrop of the ongoing Israel-Hamas war, saying that they are in retaliation for Washington's support of Israel in its war in Gaza that has killed 27,707 Palestinians, according to the Health Ministry in the Hamas-run territory. Kataib Hezbollah had said in a statement that it was suspending attacks on American troops to avoid “embarrassing the Iraqi government” after the strike in Jordan, but others have vowed to continue fighting. On Sunday, the Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed a drone attack on a base housing U.S. troops in eastern Syria killed six fighters from the Syrian Democratic Forces, a Kurdish-led group allied with the United States. The latest surge in the regional conflict came shortly after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday rejected terms proposed by Hamas for a hostage-release agreement that would lead to a permanent cease-fire, vowing to continue the war until “absolute victory.” Also on Wednesday, the media office of the Houthi rebels in Yemen reported two airstrikes in Ras Issa area in Salif district in Hodeida province.

9 dead and 13 wounded in Israeli strikes on Homs
United Nations: Diplomatic interest in Syria has not translated into a solution to its crisis
Damascus, capitals - agencies / February 7, 2024
The Syrian Ministry of Health announced that seven people were killed and 13 others were injured as a result of an Israeli bombing that targeted the city of Homs and its countryside in central Syria in the early hours of yesterday morning, while searches and removal of rubble and rubble continue. The Ministry confirmed that the ambulance and emergency system responded via six ambulances that headed directly to the scene of the accident, while the Director of Technical Services in Homs Governorate, Ahmed Habib, said that the directorate’s garage was completely destroyed and put out of service as a result of the treacherous Israeli aggression, indicating that the relevant committees are estimating the total value of the damages.” . He pointed out that the aggression also completely destroyed the garage gas tank and the oil warehouse and caused great damage to the directorate’s machinery, as 12 engineering equipment was completely destroyed, in addition to 48 various machinery being partially damaged, and the administrative building and technical workshops were also exposed to severe damage. The Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA) quoted a military source as saying, “The Israeli enemy launched an air aggression from the direction north of Tripoli at dawn, targeting a number of points in the city of Homs and its countryside, and our air defense media intercepted the aggression’s missiles and shot down some of them,” adding that the aggression led to the martyrdom of A number of civilians were injured, and some material losses occurred on public and private property. Violent explosions rocked Homs, while sources close to the Syrian government forces said that the bombing targeted areas on the outskirts of Homs, including Syrian army sites and an air base. The Syrian army’s air defenses responded to the enemy missiles, while eyewitnesses reported that fragments of the exploded missiles fell on the farms of the Al-Waer neighborhood north of Homs. West of Homs, Al-Hamra Street in the city center, east of Palmyra roundabout, and in the vicinity of the Homs refinery, causing material damage. Meanwhile, the United Nations Special Envoy for Syria, Geir Pedersen, confirmed that the great diplomatic interest in Syria following the earthquake that struck it and Turkey last year did not translate into real progress to resolve its political crisis, calling on the first anniversary of the earthquake on the Syrian parties to take concrete measures to reduce tension and consider the human cost. He expressed his regret at the increase in conflict violence over the past year, which led to the deterioration of the humanitarian situation and hindered any progress in the political process. The earthquake followed, exacerbating the tragedy of the Syrian people at home and abroad. He explained that thousands of Syrians have died and millions have fled their destroyed homes, which has increased the intensity of the need for humanitarian support, which can only be provided by halting the escalation by all major actors. He praised the Syrians and relief organizations who work tirelessly, stressing the continued support of the United Nations in Humanitarian operations.

Netanyahu rejects Hamas cease-fire demands, vows to fight until 'absolute victory'
Associated Press/February 07/2024
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/126813/126813/
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday rejected Hamas' terms for a cease-fire and hostage-release agreement, calling them "delusional," a position that complicates efforts to strike a deal between the sides. Netanyahu vowed to press ahead with Israel's war against Hamas, now in its fifth month, until achieving "absolute victory." Netanyahu made the comments shortly after meeting the visiting U.S. secretary of state, Antony Blinken, who has been traveling the region in hopes of securing a cease-fire agreement. "Surrendering to Hamas' delusional demands that we heard now not only won't lead to freeing the captives, it will just invite another massacre," Netanyahu said in a nationally televised evening news conference. "We are on the way to an absolute victory," Netanyahu said, adding that the operation would last months, not years. "There is no other solution."He ruled out any arrangement that leaves Hamas in full or partial control of Gaza. He also said that Israel is the "only power" capable of guaranteeing security in the long term. Earlier, Blinken said that "a lot of work" remains to bridge the gap between Israel and Hamas on terms for any deal. He was expected to hold his own news conference later Wednesday. Hamas laid out a detailed, three-phase plan to unfold over 4 1/2 months, responding to a proposal drawn up by the United States, Israel, Qatar and Egypt. The plan stipulates that all hostages would be released in exchange for hundreds of Palestinians imprisoned by Israel, including senior militants, and an end to the war. Israel has made destroying Hamas' governing and military abilities one of its wartime objectives, and Hamas' proposal would effectively leave it in power in Gaza and allow it to rebuild its military capabilities. U.S. President Joe Biden said Hamas' demands are "a little over the top" but that negotiations will continue. The deadliest round of fighting in the history of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has killed over 27,000 Palestinians, leveled entire neighborhoods, driven the vast majority of Gaza's population from their homes and pushed a quarter of the population to starvation. Iran-backed militant groups across the region have conducted attacks, mostly on U.S. and Israeli targets, in solidarity with the Palestinians, drawing reprisals as the risk of a wider conflict grows. Israel remains deeply shaken by the Oct. 7 attack in which Hamas militants burst through Israel's vaunted defenses and rampaged across southern Israel, allegedly killing some 1,200 people and abducting some 250, around half of whom remain in captivity in Gaza. Blinken, who is on his fifth visit to the region since the war broke out, is trying to advance the cease-fire talks while pushing for a larger postwar settlement in which Saudi Arabia would normalize relations with Israel in return for a "clear, credible, time-bound path to the establishment of a Palestinian state."But the increasingly unpopular Netanyahu is opposed to Palestinian statehood, and his hawkish governing coalition could collapse if he is seen as making too many concessions."There's a lot of work to be done, but we are very much focused on doing that work," Blinken told Israel's ceremonial president, Isaac Herzog.
MISERY DEEPENS IN DEVASTATED GAZA
There is little talk of grand diplomatic bargains in Gaza, where Palestinians yearn for an end to fighting that has upended every aspect of their lives. "We pray to God that it stops," said Ghazi Abu Issa, who fled his home and sought shelter in the central town of Deir al-Balah. "There is no water, electricity, food or bathrooms." Those living in tents have been drenched by winter rains and flooding. "We have been humiliated," he said. New mothers struggle to get baby formula and diapers, which can only be bought at vastly inflated prices if they can be found at all. Some have resorted to feeding solid food to babies younger than 6 months old despite the health risks it poses. The Palestinian death toll from four months of war has reached 27,707, according to the Health Ministry in the Hamas-run territory. That includes 123 bodies brought to hospitals in just the last 24 hours, it said Wednesday. At least 11,000 wounded people need to be urgently evacuated from Gaza, it said. The ministry does not distinguish between civilians and combatants in its figures but says most of the dead have been women and children. Israel has ordered Palestinians to evacuate areas that make up two-thirds of the tiny coastal territory. Most of the displaced are packed into the southern town of Rafah near the border with Egypt, where many are living in squalid tent camps and overflowing U.N.-run shelters. Hamas has continued to put up stiff resistance across the territory, and its police force has returned to the streets in places where Israeli troops have pulled back. Hamas is still holding over 130 hostages, but around 30 of them are believed to be dead, with the vast majority killed on Oct. 7.
HAMAS SPELLS OUT DEMANDS FOR HOSTAGE DEAL
Hamas' response to the cease-fire proposal was published in Lebanon's Al-Akhbar newspaper, which is close to the powerful Hezbollah militant group. A Hamas official and two Egyptian officials confirmed its authenticity. A fourth official familiar with the talks later clarified the sequencing of the releases. All spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to brief media on the negotiations. In the first 45-day phase, Hamas would release all remaining women and children, as well as older and sick men, in exchange for an unspecified number of Palestinian prisoners held by Israel. Israel would also withdraw from populated areas, cease aerial operations, allow far more aid to enter and permit Palestinians to return to their homes, including in devastated northern Gaza. The second phase, to be negotiated during the first, would include the release of all remaining hostages, mostly soldiers, in exchange for all Palestinian detainees over the age of 50, including senior militants. Israel would release an additional 1,500 prisoners, 500 of whom would be specified by Hamas, and complete its withdrawal from Gaza. In the third phase, the sides would exchange the remains of hostages and prisoners. Netanyahu has said he will not secure a deal at any cost, signaling he would not agree to the release of senior militants.
ISRAELIS AGONIZE OVER FATE OF CAPTIVES
Israelis are intensely focused on the plight of the hostages, with family members and the wider public demanding a deal with Hamas, fearful that time is running out. Israeli forces have only rescued one hostage, while Hamas says several were killed in Israeli airstrikes and failed rescue missions. More than 100 hostages, mostly women and children, were freed during a weeklong cease-fire in November in exchange for the release of 240 Palestinians imprisoned by Israel. Thousands of Israelis have taken part in weekly protests calling for the release of the hostages and demanding new elections. But Netanyahu is beholden to far-right coalition allies who have threatened to bring down the government if he concedes too much in the negotiations. That could spell the end of Netanyahu's long political career and expose him to prosecution over long-standing corruption allegations.

Netanyahu dismisses Hamas ceasefire proposal, insists on total victory
REUTERS/February 07, 2024
DOHA: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Wednesday total victory in Gaza was within reach, rejecting the latest offer from Hamas for a ceasefire to ensure the return of hostages still held in the besieged enclave. Netanyahu renewed a pledge to destroy the Palestinian movement, saying there was no alternative for Israel but bringing about the collapse of Hamas. “The day after is the day after Hamas. All of Hamas,” he told a press conference, insisting that total victory against Hamas was the only solution to the Gaza war. “Only total victory will allow us to restore security in Israel, both in the north and in the south.” A senior Hamas official, Sami Abu Zuhri, described Netanyahu’s remarks as “political bravado” that showed the Israeli leader’s intention to continue conflict in the region. Another Hamas official, Osama Hamdan, said a Hamas delegation led by senior Hamas official Khalil Al-Hayya would travel on Thursday to Cairo to pursue ceasefire talks with mediators Egypt and Qatar. Hamas had proposed a Gaza ceasefire of four-and-a-half months, during which all hostages would go free, Israel would withdraw its troops from the Gaza Strip and an agreement would be reached on an end to the war. The Hamas offer, the contents of which were first reported by Reuters, was a response to an earlier proposal drawn up by US and Israeli spy chiefs and delivered to Hamas last week by Qatari and Egyptian mediators. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken discussed the offer with Netanyahu after arriving in Israel following talks with the leaders of Qatar and Egypt. Blinken later met Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas in Ramallah. Israel began its military offensive after militants from Hamas-ruled Gaza killed 1,200 people and took 253 hostages in southern Israel on Oct. 7. Gaza’s health ministry says at least 27,585 Palestinians have been confirmed killed, with thousands more feared buried under rubble. There has been only one truce so far, lasting just a week at the end of November.
Hamas proposed three-phase truce
Israel had previously said it would not pull its troops out of Gaza or end the war until Hamas was wiped out. But sources close to the negotiations described Hamas as taking a new approach to its longstanding demand to end the war, proposing this as an issue to be resolved in future talks rather than a condition for the truce. According to the offer document seen by Reuters and confirmed by sources, during the first 45-day phase all Israeli women hostages, males under 19 and the old and sick would be freed, in exchange for Palestinian women and children held in Israeli jails. Israel would withdraw troops from Gaza’s populated areas. Implementation of the second phase would not begin until the sides conclude “indirect talks over the requirements needed to end the mutual military operations and return to complete calm.”The second phase would include the release of remaining male hostages and full Israeli withdrawal from all of Gaza. The remains of the dead would be exchanged during the third phase.
Blinken visit “makes things worse”
Washington has cast the hostage and truce deal as part of plans for a wider resolution of the Middle East conflict, ultimately leading to reconciliation between Israel and Arab neighbors and creation of a Palestinian state. Netanyahu has rejected a Palestinian state, which Saudi Arabia says is a requirement for any deal to normalize relations with Israel. The diplomacy comes as Israel is trying to capture the main city in Gaza’s south, Khan Younis. Last week, Israel said it plans to storm Rafah, a move UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said on Wednesday would “exponentially increase what is already a humanitarian nightmare with untold regional consequences.” The Israeli military said it had killed dozens of militants in fighting over the past 24 hours. It has made similar claims throughout the fighting in Khan Younis, which could not be independently verified. In Rafah, on Gaza’s southern edge where half of the enclave’s 2.3 million people are penned against the border with Egypt, the bodies of 10 people killed by Israeli strikes overnight were laid out in a hospital morgue. At least two of the shrouded bundles were the size of small children. Relatives wept beside the dead. Palestinian health officials say an Israeli air strike killed another three people in a house in Rafah on Wednesday. The officials added that a senior Palestinian police officer and Hamas member, Majdi Abdel-Al, was killed in an Israeli air strike on a car that was tasked to secure aid trucks in Rafah. “Every visit from Blinken, instead of calming things down, it just makes things worse, we get more strikes, we get more bombing,” said mourner Mohammad Abundi.

New round of Gaza negotiations to start Thursday in Cairo
AFP/February 07/2024
Egypt and Qatar are sponsoring a new round of negotiations to start Thursday in Cairo aimed at achieving “calm” in Gaza as well as a hostage exchange, an Egyptian official said. A Hamas source with knowledge of the matter confirmed the Palestinian group had agreed to the talks, with the goal of “a ceasefire, an end to the war and a prisoner exchange deal.” Both sources spoke to AFP on condition of anonymity as they were not authorized to talk to the media. The Egyptian official said Cairo was urging “both parties to show the necessary flexibility” to achieve a truce in Hamas-run Gaza, where the health ministry says nearly 28,000 people have been killed in four months of war. “Egypt is undertaking intense and persistent efforts to reach a truce agreement in the Gaza Strip,” he added.

Hamas' conditions for ceasefire: A closer look at Gaza negotiations
LBCI/February 07/2024
According to Abu Obaida, Hamas' military spokesperson, the conditions and demands as part of the Al-Aqsa Flood Operation are an integral aspect of its response to the framework agreement for halting military operations in the Gaza Strip, paving the way for complete and sustainable calm.
In a three-page document, Hamas delineated its response into three phases, each lasting 45 days, accompanied by detailed annexes outlining the first phase as an integral part of the agreement. According to Hamas, the agreement aims to halt mutual operations and achieve complete and sustainable calm, captive exchange, and other points. The first phase of the agreement for Hamas involves a temporary cessation of military operations, halting aerial reconnaissance, and the repositioning of Israeli forces away from populated areas in each Gaza Strip to align with the borderline. Further details emphasize Hamas' steadfast adherence to three principles: the exchange of hostages, lifting the siege on the entire Gaza Strip and ending attacks on Al-Aqsa Mosque.  Additionally, amidst the war, a fourth demand for reconstruction and the return of displaced persons to their homes, with all necessary demands, has been added. The detailed demands in the three phases include specifics regarding prisoner exchange operations:
- In the first phase, the release of Israeli hostages, including non-recruited women, children, the elderly, and the sick, in exchange for a specified number of Palestinians.
-In the second phase, the release of all civilian and recruited male prisoners in exchange for a specified number of Palestinians.
-In the third phase, the exchange of bodies and remains of deceased individuals from both sides upon identification.
Simultaneously, with each phase, humanitarian aid to the Strip will be intensified, including the entry of required fuel quantities and, most importantly, a temporary cessation of military operations.
Concurrently, alongside reconstruction efforts, humanitarian organizations will be allowed to provide services, set up shelter camps, and permit the entry of prefabricated homes and tents as displaced persons return to their places of residence across all areas of the Gaza Strip.
A critical component of the first phase stipulates that negotiations concerning the requirements to restore complete calm and reach an agreement are fundamental for implementing the second and third phases.

Blinken's discussions with Netanyahu in Israel: Examining Hamas' response to prisoner exchange deal
LBCI/February 07/2024
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu engaged in a lengthy discussion with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken that lasted for more than three hours to reach preliminary understandings regarding Israel's stance on Hamas' response to the prisoner exchange deal. However, the Israeli leadership unanimously rejected any step that would lead to a ceasefire in Gaza. The meeting occurred amidst reports in Israel revealing that Netanyahu had consented to a ceasefire between stages of the prisoner exchange deal without consulting the members of the War Cabinet. Simultaneously, Israeli officials emphasized the necessity of not outright rejecting the deal, asserting that some of its items are acceptable and open to discussion. Security officials also stressed the importance of aligning with Blinken's proposal in dealing with Hamas' response as a starting point for negotiations. Before meeting Netanyahu, Blinken requested separate meetings with Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, which reportedly caused tension during his encounter with the Israeli Prime Minister. Israeli media interpreted this step as a sign of Washington's lack of trust in Netanyahu, reflecting the atmosphere of Blinken's ongoing discussions until Thursday amid protests from families of hostages and their widespread supporters. Blinken held extensive sessions in the presence of the heads of security services, which were dominated by protests. Particularly concerning is the revelation that the number of prisoners killed in Gaza has reached 31 while the Shin Bet continues to investigate the deaths of 20 others. This number heightens Israeli concerns about the repercussions of rejecting or delaying the implementation of the deal on the fate of these captives. Meanwhile, the other aspect of the discussions, regarding the establishment of a Palestinian state, still faces rejection from 59 percent of Israelis.

Blinken briefs Israel on truce talks as war enters 5th month
Associated Press/February 07/2024
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Israeli leaders on Wednesday after Hamas put forward a detailed plan for a new cease-fire and hostage release deal, but both sides remain dug in on thus far elusive goals as the war enters its fifth month. Hamas laid out a three-phase plan to unfold over 4 1/2 months, responding to a proposal drawn up by the United States, Israel, Qatar and Egypt. All hostages would be released in exchange for hundreds of Palestinians imprisoned by Israel, including senior militants, and an end to the war. The proposal would effectively leave Hamas in power in Gaza and allow it to rebuild its military capabilities, a scenario that Israeli leaders have adamantly rejected. U.S. President Joe Biden said Hamas' demands are “a little over the top” but that negotiations will continue. The deadliest round of fighting in the history of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has killed over 27,000 Palestinians, leveled entire neighborhoods, driven the vast majority of Gaza's population from their homes, and pushed a quarter of the population to starvation. Iran-backed militant groups across the region have conducted attacks, mostly on U.S. and Israeli targets, in solidarity with the Palestinians, drawing reprisals as the risk of a wider conflict grows. Israel remains deeply shaken by Hamas' Oct 7 attack, in which militants burst through the country's vaunted defenses and rampaged across southern Israel, allegedly killing some 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and abducting some 250, around half of whom remain in captivity in Gaza. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says the war will continue until “total victory” over Hamas and the return of all the remaining hostages. Blinken, who is on his fifth visit to the region since the war broke out, is trying to advance the cease-fire talks while pushing for a larger postwar settlement in which Saudi Arabia would normalize relations with Israel in return for a “clear, credible, time-bound path to the establishment of a Palestinian state.” He was meeting with Netanyahu and other senior Israeli officials on Wednesday. But the increasingly unpopular Netanyahu is opposed to Palestinian statehood, and his hawkish governing coalition could collapse if he is seen as making too many concessions. There is little talk of grand diplomatic bargains in Gaza, where Palestinians yearn for an end to fighting that has upended every aspect of their lives. “We pray to God that it stops,” said Ghazi Abu Issa, who fled his home and sought shelter in the central town of Deir al-Balah. “There is no water, electricity, food or bathrooms." Those living in tents have been drenched by winter rains and flooding. “We have been humiliated,” he said. New mothers struggle to get baby formula and diapers, which can only be bought at vastly inflated prices if they can be found at all. Some have resorted to feeding solid food to babies younger than 6 months old despite the health risks it poses. The Palestinian death toll from four months of war has reached 27,707, according to the Health Ministry in the Hamas-run territory. That includes 123 bodies brought to hospitals in just the last 24 hours, it said Wednesday. At least 11,000 wounded people need to be urgently evacuated from Gaza, it said.
The ministry does not distinguish between civilians and combatants in its figures but says most of the dead have been women and children. Israel has ordered Palestinians to evacuate areas that make up two-thirds of the tiny coastal territory. Most of the displaced are packed into the southern town of Rafah near the border with Egypt, where many are living in squalid tent camps and overflowing U.N.-run shelters. Hamas has continued to put up stiff resistance across the territory, and its police force has returned to the streets in places where Israeli troops have pulled back. Hamas is still holding over 130 hostages, but around 30 of them are believed to be dead, with the vast majority killed on Oct. 7. Hamas' response to the cease-fire proposal was published Wednesday in Lebanon's al-Akhbar newspaper, which is close to Hezbollah. A Hamas official and two Egyptian officials confirmed its authenticity, speaking on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to brief media on the sensitive negotiations. In the first 45-day phase, Hamas would release all remaining women and children, as well as older and sick men, in exchange for Palestinian women, children, older and sick prisoners held by Israel. Israel would release an additional 1,500 prisoners, including 500 specified by Hamas — likely senior militants serving life sentences.
Israel would also withdraw from populated areas, cease aerial operations, allow far more aid to enter and permit Palestinians to return to their homes, including in devastated northern Gaza. The second phase, to be negotiated during the first, would include the release of all remaining hostages, mostly soldiers, in exchange for more Palestinian prisoners, and Israel would complete its withdrawal from Gaza. In the third phase, the sides would exchange the remains of hostages and prisoners. Israelis are intensely focused on the plight of the hostages, with family members and the wider public demanding a deal with Hamas, fearful that time is running out. Israeli forces have only rescued one hostage, while Hamas says several were killed in Israeli airstrikes and failed rescue missions. More than 100 hostages, mostly women and children, were freed during a weeklong cease-fire in November in exchange for the release of 240 Palestinians imprisoned by Israel. Thousands of Israelis have taken part in weekly protests calling for the release of the hostages and demanding new elections. But Netanyahu is beholden to far-right coalition allies who have threatened to bring down the government if he concedes too much in the negotiations. That could spell the end of Netanyahu's long political career and expose him to prosecution over long-standing corruption allegations. But the longer the war continues, the greater risk it spills over into other countries, drawing the U.S. and its allies even deeper into a volatile region.
Israel and Hezbollah trade fire on a daily basis. Iran-backed groups in Syria and Iraq have launched dozens of attacks against bases housing U.S. troops and killed three American soldiers last week, drawing a wave of retaliatory airstrikes. The U.S. and Britain have also carried out strikes against the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen in response to their attacks on shipping in the Red Sea, which have continued.

Israel says studying Hamas response to truce deal
Agence France Presse/February 07/2024
Israel has said it was examining Hamas's response to a plan to halt nearly four months of fighting in Gaza, after key mediator Qatar said the Palestinian militants had given a "positive" reply to the proposed agreement. U.S Secretary of State Antony Blinken, on his fifth tour of the region since the war broke out in October, arrived in Israel to discuss what he called an "essential" agreement. "We have received a reply from Hamas with regards to the general framework of the agreement with regards to hostages," Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani said after meeting Blinken in Doha. "The reply includes some comments, but in general it is positive."Hamas confirmed it delivered its response to proposals hammered out a week ago in Paris between Qatar and other mediators. Blinken said Hamas's reply had been "shared" with Israel and he would discuss it there on Wednesday. "We're studying it intensely... and we will be working as hard as we possibly can to try to get an agreement," he said. Israel's spy agency Mossad also received the Hamas response, the prime minister's office said, and "its details are being thoroughly evaluated". Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has yet to comment directly on the response but said on Tuesday: "We are on the way to the total victory and we will not stop. This position represents the overwhelming majority of the people."
Fighting rages
The war started with unprecedented Hamas attacks on Israel on October 7, which resulted in the deaths of about 1,160 people, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures. Militants also seized around 250 hostages. Israel says 132 remain in Gaza, including 29 who are believed to have been killed. Vowing to eliminate Hamas, Israel has launched air strikes and a land offensive that have killed at least 27,585 people in Gaza, mostly women and children, according to the health ministry in the territory. The United Nations, rights groups and charities have deplored the "catastrophic" humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip. Israel's campaign has devastated swathes of Gaza, destroyed hospitals and displaced half of its population of 2.4 million, while food, water, fuel and medicine are in dire shortage. Heavy strikes and fighting continued on Tuesday, with Gaza's health ministry saying at least 107 people were killed in 24 hours, including six policemen securing an aid truck. Fears have mounted for more than a million Palestinians sheltering in the far southern city of Rafah, after Israeli warnings it was the next target of its campaign to eradicate Hamas. The army "will reach places where we have not yet fought... right up to the last Hamas bastion, which is Rafah", Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant said on Monday. Safia Marouf, who sought refuge in Rafah with her family after being uprooted from their home further north, said she was afraid of what is to come. "The children are scared all the time, and if we want to leave Rafah, we don't know where to go. What will be our destiny and that of our children?"
Diplomatic push
Blinken met Qatari leaders on Tuesday after stops in Saudi Arabia and Egypt. "There's still a lot of work to be done," Blinken said in Doha after being informed of Hamas's reply. "But we continue to believe that an agreement is possible and indeed essential," he said. The Qatari premier said he was "optimistic" but declined to discuss the Hamas reply in detail, citing the "sensitivity of the circumstances". Last week, a Hamas source said the truce deal calls for a six-week pause to fighting as Hamas frees hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners held by Israel and more aid for Gaza. On Monday, Netanyahu said Hamas had presented "demands that we will not accept" for an exchange involving thousands of prisoners. The Israeli leader is under pressure to end the war and bring the hostages home, amid divisions within his cabinet and public fury over the fate of the remaining captives. Israeli troops, with air and naval support, have been engaged in heavy combat centred on Gaza's main southern city of Khan Yunis, the hometown of Hamas's Gaza chief, Yahya Sinwar, accused by Israel of masterminding the October 7 attack. The army on Tuesday said that "over the past day, dozens of terrorists have been killed" and around 80 people were arrested. "The humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip is beyond catastrophic," said Tommaso Della Longa, spokesman for the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies. Around 8,000 displaced people had been evacuated from the besieged Al-Amal hospital in Khan Younis, where they had sought refuge, after weeks of heavy shelling and fighting nearby, he added.

Despite strikes, US still faces threats from Iran-backed forces
Agence France Presse/February 07/2024
U.S. military action has so far failed to halt attacks by Iran-backed groups on Washington's forces in the Middle East and shipping in the Red Sea, with the threats persisting despite recent heavy air strikes. The attacks by militants -- which the armed groups that claim them say are driven by the Israel-Hamas war -- have been launched from or hit four different countries, posing a multi-front challenge for the United States, which aims to curb the unrest while avoiding direct conflict with Iran. The US hit dozens of Iran-linked targets in Iraq and Syria last week in response to a drone attack that killed three American soldiers in neighboring Jordan, and conducted joint strikes with Britain against Yemeni rebels over the weekend. But American forces were subsequently targeted in Syria, while the rebels have launched new attacks on merchant vessels. "I suspect we will have some level of violence persisting for a while. Iran and the groups it supports don't want to announce they've given in," said Jon Alterman, the director of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "At the same time, I think the number and size of attacks will diminish. This is partly because the U.S. strikes are reducing their capability, and partly because they want to reduce their losses," he said.
'Appropriate action' -
Asked Monday if the Pentagon was planning for a long campaign in Iraq and Syria, spokesman Major General Pat Ryder said that "as I understand it, that's not the case." Questioned on whether strikes would continue as long as attacks on US troops persist, Ryder said: "We're going to take whatever necessary actions are required to protect our forces." Michelle Grise, a senior policy researcher at RAND, said it is "probable that we will see continued proxy attacks for the duration of the Gaza war, although the intensity and frequency of those attacks may change."She said there is a scenario in which attacks continue even after an end to the war, but that she would "expect an extended ceasefire to lead to a pausing of the current attacks, at least in the immediate term."Anger over Israel's campaign in Gaza -- which began after the October 7 attack by Hamas -- has stoked violence involving Iran-backed forces in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria and Yemen.
Repeated attacks -
American troops in the Middle East have been targeted more than 165 times over the past four months, with many of the attacks claimed by a loose coalition of Tehran-backed armed groups opposed to Washington's support for Israel and the presence of U.S. forces in the region. Most of the attacks were in Iraq and Syria but one took place in Jordan on January 28, when a drone slammed into sleeping quarters on a remote base, killing three American soldiers and wounding dozens. The U.S. hit back with a wave of strikes in Iraq and Syria on Friday and said more would follow, but American troops were still attacked in subsequent days, according to the Pentagon. In Yemen, the Iran-backed Houthi rebels began targeting Red Sea shipping in November, saying they were hitting Israel-linked vessels in support of Palestinians in Gaza. On Saturday, U.S. and British forces launched their third round of joint strikes against the Houthis since the second week of January, a period during which American forces have also carried out unilateral air raids. But over the following three days, the U.S. military announced strikes against multiple missiles on the ground in Yemen and two explosive-laden naval drones that posed an "imminent threat," and said the Houthis launched six missiles toward two merchant ships, reportedly lightly damaging one of the vessels. The U.S. says Tehran is responsible for arming and funding the groups carrying out attacks, but has so far not targeted Iranian territory as it seeks to avoid a potentially devastating war. "A major direct confrontation threatens to create an open-ended regional war with no clear end point or objectives," Alterman said. "I don't think the U.S. public wants an open-ended war in the Middle East any more than U.S. partners and allies in the region do."

Macron says Hamas attack on Israel was 'biggest anti-Semitic massacre of our century'
Agence France Presse/February 07/2024
French President Emmanuel Macron on Wednesday described the October 7 attack by Hamas on Israel as the "biggest anti-Semitic massacre of our century" as he hosted a ceremony paying tribute to the French victims. He described the attack by the Palestinian militant group as "barbarism... which is fed by anti-Semitism and propagates it," vowing also not to give in to "rampant and uninhibited anti-Semitism." The ceremony at the Invalides memorial complex in Paris paid tribute to the 42 French citizens killed in the attack on Israel by Hamas and the three others still missing, believed to be held hostage. Macron said France would work "every day" for the release of the remaining French hostages. "Their empty chairs are there," he said at the ceremony. "Nothing can justify or excuse terrorism," he said. The French presidency has also indicated it will provide an opportunity to remember French victims of Israel's bombardments of the Gaza Strip, but has not given details on the format. The bloodiest ever Gaza war started with Hamas' unprecedented attack on Israel on October 7, which resulted in the alleged deaths of about 1,160 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures. Militants also seized around 250 hostages. Israel says 132 remain in Gaza, of whom 29 are believed to have died. Israel vowed to eliminate Hamas and launched air strikes and a ground offensive that have killed at least 27,585 people, mostly women and children, according to the Gaza health ministry. "All lives are equal, are invaluable in the eyes of France," said Macron, describing war as a "tornado of suffering."He also vowed that France would "never allow the spirit of revenge to prosper" and that "in these challenges nothing should divide us."He said that France would do everything to "respond to the aspirations of peace and security for everyone in the Middle East."

Saudi says no Israel ties without independent Palestinian state
Agence France Presse/February 07/2024
Saudi Arabia has told Washington it will not establish ties with Israel until an independent Palestinian state "is recognised", the Gulf kingdom's foreign ministry said in a statement on Wednesday. "The Kingdom has communicated its firm position to the U.S. administration that there will be no diplomatic relations with Israel unless an independent Palestinian state is recognised on the 1967 borders with East Jerusalem as its capital," read the statement published by the official Saudi Press Agency. Israeli "aggression" in Gaza must also stop and all Israeli forces must withdraw from the besieged territory, the statement said. Saudi Arabia, home to Islam's holiest sites, has never recognised Israel and did not join the 2020 U.S.-brokered Abraham Accords that saw its Gulf neighbours Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates, as well as Morocco, establish formal ties with Israel. Wednesday's statement came in response to comments by White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby, who told reporters on Tuesday that talks on Saudi-Israeli normalisation were "ongoing" and that Washington had "received positive feedback from both sides that they're willing to continue to have those discussions". On a crisis tour of the region, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Saudi Arabia this week before stops in Egypt, Qatar and then Israel, where he is pressing for a truce deal in the Israel-Hamas war. On Tuesday, Blinken told reporters in Doha that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had "reiterated Saudi Arabia's strong interest in pursuing" normalisation during their meeting in Riyadh. "But he also made clear what he had said to me before, which is that in order to do that, two things will be required -- an end to the conflict in Gaza, and a clear, credible timebound path to the establishment of a Palestinian state," Blinken said.
U.S. President Joe Biden's administration has pushed hard for Saudi Arabia to recognise Israel. Before the Israel-Hamas war broke out in October, Riyadh laid out conditions including security guarantees from Washington and help developing a civilian nuclear programme. Any momentum stalled soon after Hamas launched an unprecedented attack on southern Israel on October 7 that killed about 1,160 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures. One week later, a source familiar with the normalisation talks told AFP that Saudi Arabia had paused the process. Vowing to eliminate Hamas, Israel has launched air strikes and a land offensive that have killed at least 27,585 people in Gaza, mostly women and children, according to the health ministry in the Hamas-run territory. Saudi Arabia's ambassador to Washington, Princess Reema bint Bandar al-Saud, told the World Economic Forum last month that normalisation would be impossible without an "irrevocable" pathway towards the creation of a Palestinian state.

Raisi says US presence ‘disrupts’ Middle East security
AFP/February 07, 2024
TEHRAN, Tokyo: Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi on Wednesday criticized the deployment of US troops in the Middle East, saying it “disrupts security.”“The presence of US forces in our region has no justification,” Raisi said in a Tehran ceremony ahead of the 45th anniversary of Iran’s revolution on Feb. 12.
Referring to both past and present deployments, he said the US presence “in Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan and the region is in no way creating security. It disrupts the security in the region.”Raisi denounced what he called “Iranophobia” and “Islamophobia” and accused the US of creating it. Meanwhile, Japanese police raided a ship dealer suspected of illegally selling a vessel to Iran, local media reported on Wednesday. Tokyo police raided the Osaka-based ship dealer on suspicion that it exported a second-hand, 499-tonne freight vessel to Iran instead of to the UAE as it had reported to customs, the Yomiuri Shimbun reported. The company allegedly submitted the false export plan to customs in May 2021, according to Jiji Press and other local media. Police tracked the ship and found that it had arrived at an Iranian port after sailing through Southeast Asia, the Yomiuri said.

Pakistan's election: Who's running, what's the mood and will anything change?
Associated Press/February 07/2024
Pakistan's 127 million voters get to elect a new parliament on Thursday. The elections are the twelfth in the country's 76-year history, which has been marred by economic crises, military takeovers and martial law, militancy, political upheavals and wars with India. Forty-four political parties are vying for a share of the 266 seats that are up for grabs in the National Assembly, or the lower house of parliament, with an additional 70 seats reserved for women and minorities. After the election, the new parliament chooses a prime minister. If no party wins an outright majority, then the one with the biggest share of assembly seats can form a coalition government.
WHO IS IN THE RACE?
Pakistani politics are dominated by men and three parties: the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and the Pakistan People's Party (PPP). The top contender is PML-N and on its ballot are two former prime ministers, Nawaz Sharif and his younger brother Shehbaz Sharif. Their ally the PPP, led by Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari, a member of a political dynasty, has a power base in the country's south. Though it's unlikely to get enough votes to get him the premiership, he could still be part of a Sharif-led coalition government. However, it is the absence from the ballot of PTI's founder, cricket legend turned Islamist politician Imran Khan, that's at the forefront of public discourse in Pakistan. Though it's become the norm for corruption allegations and court cases to dog prime ministers — many of Pakistan's leaders have been arrested, disqualified or ousted from office — the intensity of the legal action against Khan is unprecedented. Khan is in prison and with four criminal convictions so far, three of them handed down last week, he is barred from running in elections or holding public office. He's been sentenced to three, 10, 14 and seven years, to be served concurrently, and has more than 150 other legal cases pending against him. His party says it's not getting a fair chance to campaign. Smaller, religious political parties that appeal to a section of the conservative Muslim country have no chance of getting a majority but could still be part of a coalition government. The Pakistani military is not on the ballot but is the real power behind the scenes — it has ruled the nation for half of its history and calls the shots in most government decisions.
WHAT ARE THE MAIN ISSUES?
The next government will have a long to-do list: fixing the economy, improving relations with the neighboring, Taliban-run Afghanistan, repairing crumbling infrastructure and resolving year-round power outages. Last but not least is containing religious and separatist militant groups. Pakistan has been relying on bailouts to prop up its foreign exchange reserves and avoid default, with the International Monetary Fund and wealthy allies like China and Saudi Arabia financing the country to the tune of billions of dollars. The IMF, which last July approved a much-awaited $3 billion bailout, has warned of sustained high inflation this year, around 24%, and a rise in poverty levels. Like many others, Pakistanis grapple with a soaring cost of living. They endure gas outages overnight and hourslong electricity blackouts — no government has so far been able to resolve the power crisis. Ties with Afghanistan and its Taliban rulers nosedived after Pakistan began arresting and deporting foreigners living in the country illegally, including around 1.7 million Afghans. The two neighbors regularly blame each other for cross-border militant attacks and skirmishes often close key crossings. Pakistan was devastated by floods in the summer of 2022 that killed 1,700 people, at one point submerging a third of the country and causing billions of dollars in damage. According to the U.K.-based Islamic Relief charity, only an estimated 5% of damaged and destroyed homes have been fully rebuilt. The Pakistani Taliban, or Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, are again waging war to overthrow the government and impose an Islamic caliphate. In southwestern Baluchistan province, where the Pakistani Taliban also have a presence, Baloch separatists have staged a yearslong insurgency seeking independence and a greater share of resources. On the eve of the election, a pair of powerful bombings at separate election offices in Baluchistan killed at least 26 people and wounded more than two dozen others, authorities said.
WHAT'S THE MOOD LIKE?
Most Pakistanis are fed up after years of political infighting and no improvements in their living standards. People on the street are quick to tell you they don't believe things will be different after this election. Khan's disqualification from running has infuriated his supporters, who have pledged to show their loyalty at the ballot box. But the intense legal and security crackdown on Khan and his followers may have worn them down. Also, there is no guarantee that PTI voters will turn out in sufficient numbers to give the party a win — or that their votes will be fairly counted. The Foreign Ministry says there will be 92 international election observers, including from the European Union and foreign embassies. Another factor shaping public sentiment is the return last October of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, who came back to Pakistan after four years in self-imposed exile abroad to avoid serving prison sentences at home. Within weeks of his return, his convictions were overturned, leaving him free to seek a fourth term in office. Despite the years of controversies, he enjoys immense popularity and seems to have a pretty straight path to the premiership. The sharp contrast in the treatment of the two front-runners — Sharif, with his speedy and smooth comeback, and Khan, with his seemingly insurmountable legal hurdles — have led many to believe Sharif's win is all but certain. Rights groups say the election is unlikely to be free or fair. Experts have warned that all the political shenanigans underway since Khan's 2022 ouster have fueled anti-establishment sentiment. That in turn has fed a growing apathy among voters and threatens a low turnout, which would further undermine the credibility of the election. Amid the discontent and divisions, getting a strong coalition to agree on and work for meaningful changes in Pakistan will be difficult.

Bombings in Pakistan kill at least 29 day before parliamentary elections
Associated Press/February 07/2024
Bombs ripped through two separate political offices in southwestern Pakistan on Wednesday, killing at least 29 people and wounding more than two dozen, officials said, the day before the country was set to elect a new parliament. The attacks in Baluchistan province — home to a low-level insurgency and various militants groups — raised concerns for the election in the troubled Western ally, where many voters are already disillusioned by political feuding and a seemingly intractable economic crisis. Violence ahead of elections and on the day of polling is common in Pakistan, which has struggled to rein in various militant groups. Tens of thousands of police and paramilitary forces have been deployed across the country following a recent surge in attacks, especially in Baluchistan. No one immediately claimed responsibility for Wednesday's bombings. At least 17 people were killed in the first attack at independent candidate Asfandyar Khan's election office in the Pashin district, said Jan Achakzai, the spokesperson for the provincial government. More than 20 were wounded, and police said some were in critical condition. Shortly after, another bombing killed at least 12 people at the office of a leading radical Islamist party in Qilla Saifullah, about 130 kilometers (80 miles) away, Acahkzai and local authorities said. At least eight people were wounded. The leaders of the Jamiat Ulema Islam party, which has close ties with Afghanistan's Taliban, have been attacked by the Islamic State group and other militants in recent years. Party president Fazlur Rehman and scores of candidates from the party are contesting the elections throughout the country. Baluchistan, a gas-rich province on the border with Afghanistan and Iran, has been the scene of an insurgency for more than two decades by Baluch nationalists who are seeking independence. The nationalists typically attack security forces — not civilian or political targets in the province. The outlawed Baluchistan Liberation Army has been behind multiple attacks on security forces, including one on Jan. 30 that killed six people.
The Pakistani Taliban, along with other militant groups, also have a strong presence in Baluchistan and have targeted civilians in recent years, though the Pakistani Taliban pledged not to attack election rallies ahead of the vote. Caretaker Prime Minister Anwaarul-Haq-Kakar denounced the bombings and conveyed his condolences to the families of those who died. He vowed that "every attempt to sabotage the law and order situation will be thwarted" and said the government is committed to holding elections Thursday in peace. Achakzai, the provincial government spokesperson, announced a three-day mourning period but emphasized that "the elections will take place on Thursday as per the schedule, and we urge people to exercise their right to vote to defeat those who wanted a delay in the elections."In 2007, Pakistan's two-time prime minister, Benazir Bhutto, was killed in a gun and bomb attack, minutes after she addressed an election rally in the garrison city of Rawalpindi. Her son, Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari, has led the campaign for her Pakistan People's Party amid tight security.

Latest English LCCC  analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on February 07-08/2024
Algeria and Mali’s colonels
Saber Blidi/The Arab Weekly/February 07/2024
The audacity of the ruling colonels in Mali still raises many questions, especially regarding the way they have dealt with their country’s largest neighbour, Algeria. It seems that the matter is not just a passing moment of tension. We are witnessing instead the redrawing of the regional map as the ruling military elites in the Sahel’s capitals are rushing to end the traditional roles of regional countries, such as Algeria. They are encouraged in their endeavour by regional and international powers. In a short lapse of time, Algiers has somehow become an undesirable neighbour. Public opinion in the Sahel has been mobilised against Algeria at the behest of new authorities in the region. The ruling military in Mali’s has stuck to its position towards Algeria, after it announced the end of the peace and reconciliation agreement in Mali and continued to accuse Algiers of sponsoring terrorism and interfering in its internal affairs.
These positions confirmed that the colonels have become a driving force in the process of the redrawing of the maps in the region and the entire African continent.
If the tensions were momentary, there would have been talk of disagreements that could be contained through dialogue or mediation. Bu all here indicates that a deep crisis is unfolding making these developments a turning point in a conflict where each side uses all the means and capabilities at its disposal. Algeria, which has a 2,400 kilometre land border with the two largest countries in the region, should use all available cards in order to consolidate its role and protect its interests.It seems that Algeria was somehow surprised by the shifts occurring south of its border. There were no preparations nor anticipation ahead of the expected repercussions, even though signs were clearly pointing to these unfolding changes. The Russians were moving their battle with the West from Ukraine to nearby in the Sahel. Within this move, they waged an official and public opinion campaign in the countries of the region against French presence. Considering its geographical location, Algeria’s fate is inextricably bound to the African continent. Authorities in the country should draw the right conclusions or hand over the torch to others who are better able to do so. Security and sovereignty imperatives cannot tolerate neglect and laxity. The situation in Mali and the Sahel in general is likely to become even more complicated, with many actors getting involved, overtly or covertly. The Russians, who want to settle their scores with the West in the region, have not heeded Algeria’s interests.
China, too, does not mind if the military continue ruling Mali or the region. It cares less whether they try to impose elections yielding power to civilians than about its concern for its interests and expanding footprint, even if they maintain special relations with Algeria.
The same applies to the Turks. The economic and commercial dynamics and bilateral cooperation ties it maintains with Algeria did not prevent Ankara from concluding arms deals with the Malian army and supplying it with weapons and equipment to fight its so-called war against terror. The colonels who rule Mali, along with their comrades in Niger and Burkina Faso, carry a vision that is opposed to the traditional roles of neighbouring countries and Western presence in the region. The colonels would not have acted with such impulsiveness and recklessness had they not been supported overtly and covertly by powers that are intent on reshuffling the cards and drawing a new map that is oblivious to Algeria’s natural interests and its deeply-entrenched role in Africa.
The flawed vision of Algerian decision-makers has led it until recently to put all its eggs in a few specific baskets. Decision-makers should rewrite their strategy and re-examine relations with allies and partners who did not take into account its interests. Among these in particular are the Russians and Turks.
Luckily for Algeria, it still holds important and strategic cards in its hand, allowing it to manoeuvre, starting with its geographical location. The country represents a key outlet for the countries of the region as this was demonstrated during its the ban on French military flights some time ago. This ban affected France’s role and activities in Mali and Niger. The rebellious Azawad factions in northeastern Mali also remain a card in the hands of Algeria, as they are a natural and legitimate component of the Sahel’s social make-up and no stability can be achieved without them.
This is in addition to the possibility of Algeria benefiting from the positions of the ECOWAS group that had rejected the military moves in the region. Another factor is the unease of the Europeans and Americans about the alliance struck by the colonels with foreign powers competing for influence and pushing their interests in the African continent. They are also likely to be wary of the potential fallouts in terms of illegal migration, terrorism and threats to their strategic interests.
*Saber Blidi is an Algerian writer.

Riyadh’s Chinese and Russian allies gone missing
Haitham El-Zobaidi/The Arab Weekly/February 07/2024
A Saudi source denied for the second time in less than a month that his country had decided to join the BRICS group (which includes Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa). It is difficult to tell whether Saudi Arabia’s procrastination over membership of the group is pre-planned or whether fast-moving events in the region have compelled the kingdom to err on the side of caution. It is possible that by showing interest in joining the BRICS bloc the Saudis wanted to warn the West, and the US in particular, about the danger of maintaining an adversarial relationship with them.
Relations between Saudi Arabia and the United States have improved significantly. Today, there is barely any trace left of the expressions of moral outrage that used to target Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman over the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi or the war in Yemen.
American and British fighters are now doing what Saudi and Emirati forces once used to do, that is targeting Houthi bases, missiles and drones. If it were not for diplomatic etiquette, Riyadh and Abu Dhabi could be sending classified cables to Washington saying: “Didn’t we tell you?”
But rapid developments in the region since the outbreak of the war in Gaza have provided reason enough for caution.
The Gaza conflict altered much of the landscape and handed Iran and its allies an exceptional opportunity to cause more to change to their advantage. One should realise that there are currently many wars taking place under the cover of the war in Gaza. The murderous onslaught against the Palestinians was left for the Israelis to carry out, with Western blessing. But two strategically decisive wars are also taking place concurrently under the pretext of Gaza. There is the war to push out the remaining US forces from Iraq. There is also the war to impose Houthi (and therefore Iranian) control over the most important waterway in the world, that of Bab al-Mandab/Red Sea.
A few days ago, a Danish frigate moved towards the Gulf of Aden to offer back up to American and British warships there. These warships have responded on a daily basis to missiles and drones launched by the Houthis at commercial ships and oil and gas tankers moving through the Red Sea. The Houthis initially justified their attacks by saying they were targeting vessels heading towards Israel. Then, their list of targets expanded as they aimed at ships heading to Saudi Arabia or on their way to the Suez Canal. Not long after that, the United States and Britain struck Houthi military bases linked to the attacks, including the locations from where missiles and drones were launched or those using radars to monitor navigation in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. The movement of the Danish frigate in coordination with major Western allies, particularly the United States, is a reminder that the West, and no other powers, has assumed the role of guarantor of security in this vital region.
The lesson drawn by Saudi Arabia, which made it err towards caution and probably also hesitate to join BRICS, is that when things get tough only the West, with its power of deterrence, gets moving.
In the region, there has been no trace of Chinese nor even Russian warships. And if they ever are present, they are far away and are not lifting a finger to thwart the threats that face commercial shipping including those aimed at vessels carrying their own goods. Is China’s disappearing act a principled, political or opportunistic choice? An interesting question to ponder. But this does not seem to be among Saudi Arabia’s immediate concerns right now.The United States bears the moral responsibility for what is happening in Gaza. The US is the nation which has today the worst reputation after Israel in the MENA region, in the Islamic world and even in the so-called Global South. There is a widespread belief that Israel would not have carried out all the killing and destruction in Gaza without American political and logistical support.
But the United States has grown accustomed to living with a tarnished reputation. If you ask Iraq’s Sunnis today about the presence of American forces in their country, the reactions of many of them will shock you. They will tell you they want these forces to remain on Iraqi soil in order to prevent Iran from imposing its complete hegemony over their country. These are the same Sunnis who had led the resistance against US occupation 20 years ago. The American occupier/saviour of the Shia of 2003 has become the main counterweight to the imbalances that Washington itself created in the region. It is from this perspective, that Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states look today at the US. It is ironically the same United States which has allowed Israel to put the Palestinian issue on hold, leaving it in limbo for more than 20 years, and has fuelled the toxic atmosphere leading up to the Gaza war. It is also the same power which destroyed Iraq and gave Iran the opportunity to bask in strategic arrogance in the region. The same United States did not offer any response when missiles and drones were launched against Saudi Arabia and other Gulf nations. It is also the same superpower which today serves as the last bulwark against Iran and its militias preventing them from seizing control of the region altogether.
For the sake of argument, let us put aside the Russian factor. Russians maintain a limited presence in Syria and once in a while send a warship to dock in Algerian ports. The activity of Wagner elements has receded since the killing of the mercenary group’s leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin. Russia is not a reliable power in the Middle East. The only achievement of the Russians has been the coordination of their positions regarding OPEC+ oil production with Saudi Arabia, before and after the outbreak of the Ukraine war. This boosted Saudi oil revenues. For a while Riyadh thought that it could focus on investing its income on its strategic as well as tourism and leisure projects. It also thought it could relinquish its previous financial commitments to the countries of the region, especially as the Yemen war ebbed.
But crises in the region are like a waterbed: you push them down in one place, they swell up elsewhere. The confusing situation created by the Gaza crisis has brought Iran back to the fore in a way that is different from what one saw a year ago in Beijing when the Saudis met with the Iranians under Chinese auspices to de-escalate tensions between them. China, the peace broker between Riyadh and Tehran, could not broker peace in the region. For Tehran, the situation in Saudi Arabia can wait until its other concerns elsewhere are addressed. The war in Yemen is on hold, but another Iranian-sponsored war is raging in Bab al-Mandab and the Red Sea.
If Iran gets what it wants in Iraq, pro-Iranian militias will impose their will on the northern borders of Saudi Arabia and will create enough trouble on the western borders of Jordan. Did China, the largest customer of Iranian oil and provider of hard currency to the Velayat-e Faqih regime, move to prevent this deterioration of the situation by providing advice to Iran, such as counselling Tehran to adhere to a “zero-problems” policy with Saudi Arabia? This is not obvious. It is clear however that China has so far avoided any involvement, choosing instead to capitalise on the United States’ abysmal reputation in the region and the world, in a way that largely in line with Iranian propaganda.
Saudi condemnation of Israeli destruction and bloodshed in Gaza has not helped Riyadh avoid criticism, as Iranian and Palestinian counter-propaganda continues to denounce what it describes as a negative Saudi attitude in the conflict. The celebration of the announcement last November of a new batch of countries joining the BRICS group was interpreted as a form of protest against American global hegemony. In the meanwhile, there has been no sign of any significant Chinese move to protect its new ally, Saudi Arabia, nor to shield it from the various threats depriving it from the pleasure of spending or investing its riches. Slogans such as “Saudi Arabia first” find an even more resonant replica in Beijing saying: “China first and from a distance.” There are those in Riyadh who could now tell Washington: “Glad to be with you again!”
*Dr Haitham El-Zobaidi is the executive editor of Al Arab Publishing Group.

UK Middle East policy unlikely to change under Labour
Mohamed Chebaro/Arab News/February 07, 2024
The suggestion last week from British Foreign Secretary David Cameron that the UK could bring forward its formal recognition of a Palestinian state falls into efforts to induce the need for a cessation of the fighting in Gaza, with the conflict now in its fifth month. The former UK prime minister thought that such a move could help make a two-state solution, currently stalled, an irreversible process, despite Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s firm opposition.
Despite Lord Cameron’s suggestion, the hope in some circles is that the UK’s advanced position, though “significant,” remains in the realm of the symbolic and is unlikely to muster enough traction in a divided world, particularly since such a “theoretical” state is likely to remain contentious even among Palestinians and their Arab or Iranian allies. Many have even raised that the backlash against Cameron’s suggestion among Conservative Party MPs could mean that the Labour Party under Sir Keir Starmer, which is tipped to win the UK elections set for later this year, might introduce policies conducive to pushing for that recognition in a drive toward achieving lasting peace in the Middle East.
Despite the genuinely popular demonstrations in the UK week after week demanding that the government pressure Israel to stop its onslaught against the Palestinians in Gaza, along with other demonstrations calling for the immediate return of the hostages held by Hamas, the weight of history would make such a step a highly controversial one, regardless of which party leads the country after the general election. The support expressed for Israel by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Starmer since Oct. 7 reflects the country’s long-held pro-Israeli position. While this position is often dented by individual MPs who veer from the official line, this does not amount to Britain changing its colors, as witnessed at previous junctures in this “forever conflict,” when diplomatic maneuvering and threats of recognition were put on the table but never amounted to actual policies.
Cameron’s recognition idea is not new for the UK. In October 2014, Parliament took the historic step of voting to back the recognition of a Palestinian state alongside the state of Israel, following a similar war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza in July and August of that year. The Labour Party pushed its MPs to back the symbolic resolution, which gained the support of 274 lawmakers, with only 12 voting against.
Today, Labour, which is tipped for a landslide election win, risks seeing its victory margin reduced, as some voters feel turned off by the cautious stance it has taken on the Gaza war. It has shown it is not ready to diverge from the government line on this issue. However, Labour’s march to replace the Conservatives is not thought to be stoppable by a reluctant British Muslim community, or even British Jewish voters — the latter due to accusations of antisemitism that marred the party during the leadership of Jeremy Corbyn. Labour risks seeing its victory margin reduced due to the cautious stance it has taken on the Gaza war. If anything, the conflict in the Middle East presents a dilemma for the Labour Party, whose foreign policy is being tested ahead of the election. A few weeks after the eruption of violence in Gaza, dozens of local Labour councilors, mainly in predominantly British Muslim-dominated areas in the north of the country, resigned in protest at the party’s stance concerning Gaza. They sought to pressure Starmer to clearly call for an immediate ceasefire. As a result, Labour is likely to struggle to win back the trust of British Muslims, which could hurt its majority in Parliament, but is unlikely to prevent it from forming the next government.
A recent poll showed that only 60 percent of British Muslims would likely vote for Labour if a general election were held tomorrow, down from 86 percent in the 2019 election. Survation, which conducted the survey, found that the Green Party attracted 14 percent of British Muslims, while 9 percent were willing to back the Liberal Democrats. Starmer’s net favorability was worse in northwest England, at minus 18 percent, a region that features constituencies with a large Muslim voter base.
According to the survey, British Muslims’ identification with Labour as their natural choice has fallen from 72 percent in 2021 to 49 percent this year. On top of this, 85 percent of British Muslims believe the political position of parties on the Gaza war will be important in influencing their vote at the polls this year.
Also, many in the UK believe that its recognition of Palestine would be unlikely to make much difference under a Conservative or a Labour government, unless it is born from a process and an international drive that would achieve the obvious but elusive two-state solution, or any formula that would grant Palestinians their right to a state and Israel its security, which has clearly been clearly shattered since Oct. 7.
Among EU nations, only Cyprus, Malta, Sweden and a handful of former Eastern Bloc countries have recognized Palestine. But as well as influencing other European nations, British recognition would be especially symbolic. Having ruled what was then Mandatory Palestine from 1920 to 1948, Britain bears a historic responsibility to help resolve the conflict.
Over the three decades since the Oslo Accords were signed, Labour and Conservative governments alike have found it imperative to launch initiative after initiative to help break the deadlock in the Middle East. The current war in Gaza is said to have further eroded trust between all sides and even with potential peace-brokers like Britain, which was won with the formation of the Palestinian National Authority. One can only hope it will not take yet more decades to break the current stalemate and its many ramifications. Instead, let us hope that efforts are reignited to not only bring about an end to this conflict but also pursue the necessary steps to put into practice the recognition and establishment of a Palestinian state that would at last live in peace alongside Israel.
• Mohamed Chebaro is a British-Lebanese journalist with more than 25 years’ experience covering war, terrorism, defense, current affairs and diplomacy. He is also a media consultant and trainer.

How the EU can make its new Red Sea mission more effective
Dr. Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg/Arab News/February 07, 2024
On Feb. 19, the EU is expected to roll out a new maritime security mission in the Red Sea. The bloc’s top diplomat, Josep Borrell, announced last Friday that the new naval presence is meant to protect commercial vessels from Houthi attacks.
The mission is going to join a crowded space of several such outfits in the region. While these well-intended initiatives proliferate, some have had limited capabilities and mandates. They need to be supplemented by political and diplomatic moves to be effective and long-lasting. In addition, better coordination with each other and with local, national and regionwide frameworks can multiply their usefulness.
Emphasizing its “purely defensive” nature, the new EU mission will be called Aspides, from an ancient Greek word meaning “shield,” according to Borrell, who also stated that “our purpose is not to conduct any kind of attack, but just to defend.” He added that the mission “will be deployed at sea and ... will not conduct any operation on land.” It is apparently meant to be in contrast to the US-led Operation Prosperity Guardian, which includes attacks against Houthi targets in Yemen.
There are already half a dozen other outfits in the region involved in different aspects of maritime security. The largest is the US-led Combined Maritime Forces, which is now composed of 41 countries, including the Gulf Cooperation Council states. It has five task forces set up to counter illicit nonstate actors on the high seas across approximately 8.2 million sq. km of international waters in the Arabian Gulf, Red Sea, Gulf of Aden and Arabian Sea.
Other maritime security outfits in the region include the US-led International Maritime Security Construct and Operation Prosperity Guardian, which was assembled in December in response to Houthi attacks on maritime shipping.
European countries have, individually and collectively, also established a number of missions addressing certain aspects of maritime security in the region, including Operation Atalanta and the European Maritime Awareness in the Strait of Hormuz. Aspides, the new EU mission that is due for launch later this month and is focused on the Red Sea, will join these European missions.
The Red Sea and the other areas of operation of these multiple maritime missions are among the most important waterways for world trade and, as such, their security is a global preoccupation. It is not an exaggeration to say that the Strait of Hormuz and Bab Al-Mandab Strait are the most important chokepoints for oil and natural gas trade. More than 27 million barrels of oil go through them daily, or about 28 percent of the world’s oil supply. Similarly, about 20 percent of the world’s liquefied natural gas goes through the Strait of Hormuz and 8 percent goes through Bab Al-Mandab.
Threats to international shipping in these waterways can have catastrophic effects on energy markets and economies around the world. But as Borrell said at the third EU Indo-Pacific Ministerial Forum in Brussels last week: “Disruptions to freedom of navigation have consequences that go beyond economic losses. It is not just a matter of some days more or some dollars more; it is about peace and stability.” The breakdown in maritime law and order adds to the volatility of this region.
Since its founding in 1981, the GCC has developed its naval and coast guard capabilities. It has integrated its maritime security efforts through the Bahrain-based GCC Center for Naval Operations Coordination and the Riyadh-based GCC Unified Military Command.
It is important to take a longer-term view to secure freedom of navigation in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.
According to the Law of the Sea, ensuring freedom of navigation in international waters and straits is a shared responsibility delineated in international conventions. The GCC countries are all Combined Maritime Forces members and, at times, command its various task forces. The GCC-US Maritime Security Working Group, set up in 2015, coordinates maritime security cooperation and similar bodies coordinate with other partners at the collective level and with member states individually.
Last month, the EU and GCC held their first security dialogue with the aim of coordinating their bloc-to-bloc security efforts, including maritime security. The decision to engage was made long before the recent threats in the Red Sea, but they have added a sense of urgency to this task.
Military personnel have been doing a fair job going about the tasks assigned to them in these task forces, coalitions and individual operations with overlapping geographical and operational mandates. However, the proliferation of these outfits has raised the need for closer coordination among them, but also with the political processes taking place and international instruments adopted in recent years.
For example, the Houthi attacks on international shipping should not be seen in isolation from the group’s domestic agenda of controlling Yemen’s destiny. The Houthis’ posturing also chimes with Iran’s taking advantage of the war on Gaza to widen its sphere of influence regionally, through what it calls “the resistance axis.” As such, maritime security efforts should be coordinated with the UN-led peace process in Yemen and peace efforts in the Israel-Palestinian conflict, as well as with China’s diplomacy regarding both the Saudi-Iran deal and its efforts to persuade Iran to rein in the Houthis.
Next, it is important to take a longer-term view to secure freedom of navigation in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, especially the Bab Al-Mandab Strait. The main reason the Houthis have a growing capability to threaten shipping is the failure to enforce the arms embargo against them that was put in place in 2015 through UN Security Council Resolution 2216. This was adopted under Chapter VII of the UN Charter, meaning that both military and nonmilitary actions are authorized to enforce the embargo.
Subsequently, the UN has established a number of monitoring mechanisms, but their enforcement is being circumvented by Houthi actions that limit the ability of the global organization’s staff to carry out their tasks. The lax enforcement of the arms embargo means that the Houthis will continue to receive arms, including anti-shipping, cruise and ballistic missiles and missile parts, which will allow them to continue threatening maritime trade.
The danger of sea mines laid by the Houthis should also be addressed, as they drift toward international shipping lanes. There have been multiple incidents of mines hitting passing ships, some resulting in fatalities when they hit smaller boats. Pro-government forces have frequently discovered and disabled networks of naval mines, but the task of clearing them requires international cooperation to safeguard shipping.
Global actors partnering with the internationally recognized government of Yemen can improve maritime operations. Augmenting its coast guard capabilities through training and joint exercises would be useful, as would helping with the monitoring of suspicious movements, on land and at sea, which could threaten shipping. As maritime security efforts multiply in the region, there is a need for better coordination and division of labor among them, especially as some are too small to act alone. Cooperation with local, national and regionwide frameworks can also multiply their usefulness.
Most of all, political coherence is essential. Military moves need to coalesce with the political and diplomatic processes that are in place in order to be effective in the long run.
• Dr. Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg is the Gulf Cooperation Council assistant secretary-general for political affairs and negotiation. The views expressed here are personal and do not necessarily represent the GCC.
X: @abuhamad1

The thorny issue of refugees’ right of return can be solved
Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib/Arab News/February 07, 2024
Israel last month accused 12 members of the UN Relief and Works Agency of being involved in Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack. Following the unproven allegations, main donors including the US, UK, Germany, Japan and Australia withdrew their funding of the organization that has, since 1949, been providing for the refugees who were brutally driven out of their homes during the founding of Israel.
As usual, the Israeli story has changed as more truths were unveiled. Israel later said that the number of people suspected was not 12 but four. And Sky News reported that the claims and documents presented by the Israelis do not directly implicate UNRWA. Even the US State Department stated that it could not verify the Israeli claims, although it still found them “highly credible.” This is a bit confusing. If they were “highly credible,” why can the State Department not check them?
It is important to ask the question: Why now? Why is Israel so adamant about closing down UNRWA? What a coincidence. The Israeli effort to defund UNRWA comes just as the concept of a Palestinian state is being pushed in the public discourse. UK Foreign Secretary David Cameron announced last week that his country was considering recognizing a Palestinian state. The US has put out a similar message. It is reportedly “reviewing options for the possible recognition of a Palestinian state.” What does this mean? It means that Israelis will no longer be in the driving seat and will no longer have a veto over Palestinian statehood. As they see that Palestinian statehood might be imposed on them, they need to clear one major issue: the right of return. UNRWA is supposed to take care of Palestinian refugees until they are no longer refugees and they can return home. In a speech in July 2023, the Israeli representative at the UN, Gilad Erdan, said clearly: “There is no right of return.” From Israel’s perspective, he added, the right of return of millions of descendants of refugees is the demand to obliterate the Jewish people’s right for self-determination. Erdan blamed UNRWA and the Palestinian Authority for the perpetuation of the status of Palestinian refugees. The argument presented by Israel is that about 800,000 Jews were also expelled from Arab countries in 1948. Hence, there was a population exchange and the chapter should be closed. However, this equivalence does not stand up to scrutiny. Arab Jews left their countries to become citizens in the newly founded state of Israel, whereas Palestinians have remained as refugees in perpetuity, as they have no state. The Israelis are worried about being overwhelmed by waves of returning Palestinians.
A Palestinian state would give political representation to all refugees who are currently stateless and have travel documents that only a few countries accept. Again, the daunting question from an Israeli perspective is: What if they all decided to return to where they came from? UN General Assembly Resolution 3236 of 1974 states “the inalienable right of the Palestinians to return to their homes and property from which they have been displaced and uprooted, and calls for their return.”
The establishment of the state of Israel involved a great deal of dispossession that needs to be recognized and addressed.
The Israelis always try to portray the mass expulsions that happened in 1948 as lawful. They were not. Of course, the UN partitioned Palestine and gave 55 percent of it to the Jews for them to establish Israel. But the partition did not give them the right to push out the inhabitants of the land. For example, my great grandfather was a subject of the Ottoman Empire. He had a house in Beirut. When the state of Greater Lebanon was established in 1920, he became a Lebanese citizen living under the jurisdiction of the Lebanese state. This did not mean that the inhabitants of Mount Lebanon had the right to come and drive him out of his home and take his place. Definitely not.
The establishment of the state of Israel involved a great deal of dispossession that needs to be recognized and addressed. People were pushed out of their private property. This dispossession created a sense of injustice that fuels the drive for resistance. It is in the interest of Israel, as well as the international community, to solve the issue in an equitable manner.
If the refugees’ actual return is difficult and is deemed a threat to the Israelis, then Palestinians should be compensated. Here, the Israelis will jump in and say: What about the Jews who left their countries in 1948? Of course, justice cannot be selective and exclusive. Justice should be for all. So, a tribunal under the UN should be put in place to compensate people who can present evidence of their property and proof that it was taken from them by force. This should include Palestinian refugees as well as Jews who left or were expelled from Arab countries in 1948. This might involve billions of dollars in compensation and might take years. However, it is a small price to pay for a sustainable peace. Also, the Arab League should state the right of return of Jews who left in 1948. Before 1948, a third of Baghdadis were Jewish and, according to Avi Shlaim, the British-Israeli historian of Iraqi origin, they “were a very positive force in Iraqi society.” But not anymore. “What changed,” Shlaim said, “was the creation of the state of Israel.” Of course, if the Arab League were to announce the right of return, we would not expect Jewish Israelis of Arab origin to go back to Baghdad in the current conditions Iraq is experiencing. However, such a resolution would push a sense of integration among people, instead of the sense of animosity that Israel — especially the current Netanyahu government — has been fanning. They try to convince Jewish Israelis of Arab origin, as well as the international community, that Jews have been persecuted by Arab countries. This is somehow their justification for mistreating Palestinians.
The tribunal on compensation for refugees, as well as giving Arab Jews the right to return to their ancestral homelands in Arab countries, would deconstruct the false narrative of victimhood of the Israeli right. The Israeli right has been thriving on this animosity and fear, portraying to its own people that Arabs and Palestinians were oppressors of the Jewish people. To have peace and a fair settlement, this narrative needs to be deconstructed and dispossession needs to be addressed.
• Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib is a specialist in US-Arab relations with a focus on lobbying. She is co-founder of the Research Center for Cooperation and Peace Building, a Lebanese nongovernmental organization focused on Track II.

On the background to US-Israeli ‘coexistence’ with Iran
Eyad Abu Shakra/Asharq Al-Awsat/February 07/2024
US President Joe Biden has fulfilled his promise and launched a military attack against Iran. The attacks were “against” Iran in the most flexible and loosest sense of the term. Indeed, Iranian territory was not hit and the attack did not intend to inflict a decisive military defeat on the Tehran regime that would achieve the attack’s political objective.
Instead, as we expected — given the approach the last two Democratic administrations have taken — the attacks targeted Arab territory within Tehran’s political and military sphere of influence. Moreover, they were launched for psychological reasons and to meet the need to retaliate during an election year, a time when a president’s administration cannot be made to appear weak in the face of challenges.
Anyway, Hossein Akbari, the Iranian ambassador to Syria, quickly reassured us that not a single Iranian had fallen as a result of the dozens of US airstrikes. It thus becomes clear that the objective of “sending a message of deterrence” was not achieved … leaving aside the fact that the US had never intended for it to be a decisive blow.
The attack was undoubtedly calibrated by Washington. Accordingly, we were told that the recent attack was “only one part of the US response” to the attack on the Al-Tanf base in the Syrian desert near the Iraqi-Syrian-Jordanian border triangle.
In fact, something is becoming increasingly evident with every negotiation interval, using live ammunition, between the groups known as “the Great Satan” (the US) and “the Little Satan” (Israel) and the “axis of resistance”: There is no end in sight for the ongoing competition over how to share the region within the framework of the so-called rules of engagement.
I believe that our brothers in Palestine have now realized — even if they had chosen to avoid skepticism before — that the Iranian regime will not fight in their defense … although it has never missed an opportunity to exploit their cause, their fate, their dreams and their suffering.
The mission to “eliminate Israel within seven minutes” has been forgotten despite the destruction seen in the Gaza Strip and the martyrdom and injury of tens of thousands of its people.
It turns out that “unity of the arenas” — a concept that many had promoted and believed in — only applies to the Arab territory occupied by Iran. On the other hand, Iranian territory remains unthreatened by direct retaliation.
Also, despite the intensity of the artillery and all the smoke rising from the shelling on the Lebanese-Israeli border front, the military operations have evidently been targeted. They are targeting settlements that have already been evacuated.
Accordingly, the goal is to silence the Lebanese skeptics and to save face for the Iran axis … even after the assassination of senior Hamas leader Saleh Al-Arouri in the Hezbollah stronghold of Beirut’s southern suburbs. Of course, this was paralleled by Washington’s insistence on “preventing regional escalation” to allow Israel to focus solely on Gaza.
Indeed, this applies even at sea. The Red Sea has become a front for posturing and oneupmanship, another episode in the ongoing “negotiations.” Once again, Washington has demonstrated that it intended to deal with the Tehran regime on a case-by-case basis as it puts all of its weight behind the Israeli war to destroy the Gaza Strip. And again, we recall how quickly the White House announced that “there is no evidence of Tehran’s involvement” within hours of the attack on Oct. 7.
Tehran is using slogans of ‘liberating Jerusalem’ as cover to fight us and not those who are occupying Jerusalem.
I genuinely do not mean to incite Washington and Tel Aviv against Iran’s people, land and culture. Iran is a neighbor with whom we have had ties for thousands of years.
That is absolutely not my intention. Iran is an integral part of the region and our civilizations have been linked for centuries. We have both taken and given much to each other. Only the delusional could refuse to acknowledge what this ancient civilization has contributed to our Arab and Islamic world, and indeed to the entire world, through the contributions of its innovators and geniuses to theology, philosophy, science, culture, art and administration.
To put it briefly, Iran is not alien to the region, nor are we alien to it. It remains close to us, even when its rulers seek, from time to time, to deny our brotherhood, coexistence and understanding.
Our real problem with Tehran is that, using slogans of “liberating Jerusalem” as cover, it is fighting us and not those who are occupying Jerusalem. Washington and Tel Aviv are well aware of this fact.
Over the past few years, US administrations have, on the surface, sought to curb the excesses of Israel’s right-wing extremists and prevented them from attacking Iran.
Throughout this period, Tehran has expanded its destructive occupation of Arab territories — especially in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon — through its sectarian militias, under the pretext of fighting Israel to liberate Palestine. The fascist right wing in Israel, the Likud, has reaped the benefits of overblowing the threat of the “Iranian ogre” to dominate Israeli politics.
As a result, fears of Iranian expansion led some Arabs to accept and normalize relations with Israel, while Israel’s extremism pushed other Arabs to accept subservience to Tehran’s mullahs and their Revolutionary Guards.
Meanwhile, Washington was comfortable giving directions on both sides, politically, academically and in the media.
The countries of the Arab Levant have fallen. Their wealth has been plundered and their social fabric has been torn. They have witnessed the broadest sectarian ethnic cleansing in centuries. Despite this, American decision-makers (with Israeli suggestion and support) are still racing to find “strategic justifications” for Washington’s reluctance to put an end to the unrestrained Tehran regime.
**Eyad Abu Shakra is managing editor of Asharq Al-Awsat. X: @eyad1949