English LCCC Newsbulletin For
Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For December 17/2024
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news
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Bible Quotations For today
Joseph, son of David, do not be afraid to take Mary as your wife, for the
child conceived in her is from the Holy Spirit
We suffer with him so that we may also be glorified with himLetter to
the Romans 08/12-18: "We are debtors, not to the flesh, to live according to the
flesh for if you live according to the flesh, you will die; but if by the Spirit
you put to death the deeds of the body, you will live. For all who are led by
the Spirit of God are children of God.For you did not receive a spirit of
slavery to fall back into fear, but you have received a spirit of adoption. When
we cry, ‘Abba! Father!’it is that very Spirit bearing witness with our spirit
that we are children of God, and if children, then heirs, heirs of God and joint
heirs with Christ if, in fact, we suffer with him so that we may also be
glorified with him. I consider that the sufferings of this present time are not
worth comparing with the glory about to be revealed to us."
Titles For The Latest English LCCC
Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on December
16-17/2024
Statues of the
late tyrant Hafez al-Assad are destroyed and this is the natural end of every
terrorist and satanic ruler/Elias Bejjani/December 14, 2024
Elias Bejjani/Text & Audio: Naeem Qassem’s Speech – An Insult to Lebanese
Intelligence and Denial of Catastrophic Realities/December 14, 2024
Jumblatt "Optimistic" About Jan. 9 Presidential Election Session
Israeli Drone Strike Near the Town of Najariya
Hezbollah Faces Legal Complaints From Its Own Supporters
Retired Contractual LU Professors Urge Cabinet Approval of Their Rights
US Congressman Darin LaHood: Lebanese Officials Must Elect a Sovereign President
MP urges state to step in, protect Lebanon, without Hezbollah's help
Christmas joy 'doubled' for Geagea as he celebrates Assad fall
Berri, Jumblat optimistic Jan. 9 session will produce president
Israeli drone strikes valley in Sidon district
Raad stresses Syrian people's 'right to self-determination'
Geagea to seek presidential consensus, says al- Khazen
Israeli drone strikes valley in Sidon district
Lebanese PM meets Qatari Minister of State and German delegations to discuss
regional affairs
Bou Saab after meeting Gemayel: This week is decisive in narrowing down
candidates that garner consensus
Lebanese state recovers LBP 6 billion from former BDL governor Riad Salameh
‘Shi’ites should make peace with Israel,’ Lebanese party leader says/Ohad
Merlin/Jerusalem Post/December 16/2024
Lebanese Celebrate Assad's Fall: It's Another Step Toward The Collapse Of The
Resistance Axis And A Lesson For Hizbullah/MEMRI/December 16, 2024
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on December
16-17/2024
Israel wages
most violent strikes ever on Syria coast
Syria retains 26 tons of gold reserves after Assad's fall - report
Facing terror designations and sanctions, Syria’s new rulers push for
international legitimacy/Nadeen Ebrahim, CNN/December 16, 2024
Dramatic fall of Assad regime creates new reality for the entire region
Trump Says Türkiye Is Key Player in Syria’s Future
Israeli Strikes Leave Syrian Ammo Dump a Smoking Ruin
UN Envoy Meets Sharaa, Urges ‘Credible and Inclusive’ Transition in Syria
Kremlin Says No Final Decisions Yet on Fate of Russian Military Bases in Syria
Assad Reportedly Says He Had No Plans to Leave Syria, Was Evacuated by Russians
What Is the Significance of the Golan Heights?
Syria’s Ports Working Normally as Ukraine Looks to Supply Staple Foods
Syria’s Jolani says ‘contract’ between state and all religions needed for
‘social justice’
We’re All Syrians’: Soldiers Hand in Weapons, Hope for Quiet Lives
Extremism, Russia and Iran Have No Place in Syria’s Future, Says EU’s Kallas
Hunt for Assad Family’s Missing Billions Begins
Houthis fire ballistic missile at Tel Aviv, fragments crash into Jerusalem
apartment
Israel is likely to finally respond to Yemen's Houthis, 'Post' has learned
Trump repeats warning to Hamas to release hostages soon or face consequences
Death Toll in Gaza Strip from Israel-Hamas War Tops 45,000, Palestinians Say
Israeli strike on UN school in Gaza kills at least 20, survivors say
Palestinian security forces launch a rare crackdown on militants in the West
Bank
US military kills 12 ISIS terrorists in Syria in precision strikes
Two charged in connection with Iran drone strike that killed 3 US troops in the
Middle East
Titles For The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources
on December
16-17/2024
Iran's Very
Bad Year/Kay Armin Serjoie/Time/December 16, 2024
Syria’s Future and the Shifting Tectonics/Charles Elias Chartouni/This Is
Beirut/December 16/2024
Turkey's Syrian Jihadists Take Over Syria: Kurds, Half a Million Christians
Under Intolerable Threat/Uzay Bulut/Gatestone Institute/December 16, 2024
Was the West or Islam ‘Built on Blood, Tears, Massacres, and
Exploitation’?/Raymond Ibrahim/The Stream/December 16, 2024
Christians in Syria mark country's transformation with tears as UN envoy urges
an end to sanctions/Abby Sewell/DAMASCUS, Syria (AP) /December 16/2024
Sharaa’s Arrival and the Cups of Poison/Ghassan Charbel/Asharq Al-Awsat/December
16/2024
Winning the War in Ukraine Has Become an All-Encompassing Goal for Putin/Anatoly
Kurmanaev/The New York Times/December 16/2024
on December
16-17/2024
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2024/12/138012/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hzNFAlJfvPk&t=218s
Lebanese Celebrate Assad's Fall: It's Another
Step Toward The Collapse Of The Resistance Axis And A Lesson For Hizbullah
MEMRI/December 16, 2024
Lebanon, Syria | Special Dispatch No. 11729
https://www.memri.org/reports/lebanese-celebrate-assads-fall-its-another-step-toward-collapse-resistance-axis-and-lesson
The fall of the Bashar Al-Assad regime in Syria on December 8, 2024, following a
short military campaign by the Syrian opposition factions led by Ahmed Al-Shara',
known as Abu Muhammad Al-Joulani, the leader of the Hay'at Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS)
organization, was received with joy and relief not only in Syria but also in the
neighboring country, Lebanon. When news of the rebels' arrival in Damascus and
of Assad's flight became known, Lebanese throughout the country took to the
streets to celebrate the event with cries of joy and the distribution of sweets.
While congratulating the Syrian people on their "independence day" and "the
victory of justice," many Lebanese politicians, media figures, and citizens also
saw the fall of the Assad regime as a victory for Lebanon. This is unsurprising,
given that for many years the Syrian regime did as it pleased in Lebanon: its
forces were deployed throughout the country and terrorized the Lebanese sectors
that opposed its presence, including through kidnappings, arrests and the
assassination of opponents, most famously Lebanese Prime Minister Rafic Hariri.
In 2004, the Syrian regime was forced to withdraw its forces from Lebanon
following UN Security Council Resolution 1559. However, it attempted to
gradually reimpose its patronage over the country, inter alia with the help of
its allies there, chief of them Hizbullah.[1]
Lebanese politicians and media figures known for opposing the resistance axis
led by Iran, Hizbullah, and Syria pointed to the various repercussions of this
development: on the power dynamics within Lebanon, on Lebanon's bilateral
relations with Syria and on the resistance axis. They argued that the fall of
the Syrian regime, an ally of Hizbullah, would further undermine the status of
this organization, which has already suffered a defeat in its campaign against
Israel. They also called for changing the character of the relations between
Syria and Lebanon by abolishing joint mechanisms and agreements signed between
them over the years, which effectively cemented Syria's patronage over Lebanon.
Additionally, many saw the fall of the Syrian regime as another step in the
domino-like collapse of the Iran-led resistance axis, following the severe blows
sustained by Hamas in the Gaza Strip and Hizbullah in Lebanon.
Assad's opponents in Lebanon dismissed the concerns regarding the rise of
extremist Islamist elements in Syria, stating that any alternative is better
than the Assad regime. Some even contacted Al-Joulani and expressed hope to
establish relations with the new Syrian regime under his rule.
This report reviews the reactions to the fall of the Assad regime among
opponents of this regime in Lebanon.
Messages Congratulating The Syrian And Lebanese Peoples On "The Victory Of
Justice"
Senior politicians and media figures in Lebanon congratulated the Syrian people
on the downfall of the Assad regime and urged them to establish democracy in
Syria. The fall of this regime, they said, heralds justice and a better future
not only for the Syrians but also for the Lebanese people, some of whose leaders
were assassinated by this regime for opposing its presence in their land. The
Al-Mustaqbal movement, headed by former Lebanese Prime Minister Sa'ad Al-Hariri,
known for its opposition to the Assad regime, congratulated the Syrian people on
the fact that "justice has defeated injustice, [a goal] for which they always
called and for the sake of which they sacrificed many lives… and which
culminated in the free people declaring the collapse of the tyrannical regime…"
The statement added: "We congratulate the Syrian people on [attaining] the
freedom they deserve and on which they insisted… We will continue to stand with
the Syrian people, as we did from the start despite the tyranny of the [Assad]
regime, that was [also] directed at us… Today the Syrian people is witnessing
the victory of its freedom and honor… These developments are good news for Syria
and Lebanon, and increase the hope [to see] an interim stage in which the Syrian
people will regain its stolen land…"[2]
A statement issued by Sa'ad Al-Hariri said: "I have been waiting for this day
since that black night [on which my father, Rafic Hariri, was assassinated]… I
was so happy to see you in Syria loudly applauding [the arrival of] freedom,
which liberated [the country] from its large prison. Now you are celebrating the
fall of the dictator who struck terror in the hearts of Syrians and Lebanese
alike… the regime that peddled in [the issue of] Palestine for over half a
century, sold the Golan for cheap and sold itself to whoever paid it or defended
it from its own people…" Al-Hariri expressed hope that Syria would be the
homeland and state for all Syrians.[3]
Lebanese Druze leader Walid Jumblatt wrote on his X account: "At last, after a
long wait, signs of freedom have appeared in Syria."[4] Several days later it
was reported that Jumblatt had spoken on the phone with HTS leader Al-Shara' and
congratulated him on his victory, and that the two had agreed to meet in
Damascus "soon."[5]
During celebrations in the town of Ma'arab, a stronghold of the Christian
Lebanese Forces Party, the party's leader, Samir Geagea, described Assad's fall
as "God's will" and congratulated both the Syrian people and the Lebanese people
on the victory of justice. Geagea stressed that he had believed in the Syrian
revolution from the start, continued to believe in it even when it waned and
when Arab and European countries began to renew their diplomatic relations with
the regime, and persisted in this belief “until we saw our dream come true.” He
added: "This is the day of Bachir Gemayel, whose killers were sent [by the Assad
regime] and were regarded [by this regime] as heroes.[6] The time has come for
justice not only in Syria but also in Lebanon... This is the day of Tripoli and
all our martyrs who were killed by Assad's forces... This is the day of the free
people in Syria who suffered greatly under the Syrian regime and who fought for
55 years. Many of them were killed or migrated from their homes and homeland
because they could not live under this regime." Geagea urged Lebanese people who
emigrated to return to their country now that "hope has returned and your
efforts and presence are needed [here]."[7]
Lebanese politician and journalist May Shidiac, a former government minister and
MP on behalf of Samir Geagea's Lebanese Forces Party, who survived an
assassination attempt in 2005, wrote on her X account: "After 50 years of Ba'ath
rule, the Assad regime has fallen. How exciting. Thank you, God, for letting me
live to see this day: the Bashar Al-Assad regime has ceased to exist. The era of
violence, arrogance and reliance on the [resistance] axis against the people is
over. Congratulations to the Syrian people and to all the Lebanese who suffered
the violence of this regime. #finito_la_musica #game_over."[8]
Calls In Lebanon To Try Former Assad Regime Officials, Establish New Relations
With Syria
Alongside the joy over the fall of Syria’s tyrannical Assad regime, there have
also been calls to use this opportunity to remove any remnants of Syria’s
patronage over Lebanon – including monuments, branches of Syrian political
parties, and treaties and mechanisms that entrenched this patronage – and to try
former officials of the Assad regime for the assassination of Lebanese
officials.
Lebanese MP Samy Gemayel, leader of the Christian Phalange (Kataeb) party, said
at a December 12, 2024 press conference: "For 30 years, there have been
dysfunctional ties and unfair agreements [between Syria and Lebanon], and there
was no introspection [on the part of the Syrian regime] regarding what took
place during this period of time… We demand that Habib Shartouni [who
assassinated Samy Gemayel's uncle, Lebanese President-elect Bachir Gemayel, in
1982] be punished, and that the assassinations [of Lebanese figures] be
investigated. Fair compensation must be paid to Lebanese who were incarcerated
in Syrian prisons and to the families of the victims who died during torture…
The Syrian-Lebanese Higher Council,[9] its General Secretariat, and its
oversight and coordination body must be dismantled. Ties between the two
countries must be handled by the official embassies and in accordance with the
Vienna Convention on Consular Relations. Parallel channels outside of the
recognized constitutional and diplomatic framework must be avoided, and the
Treaty of Brotherhood, Cooperation and Coordination must be abolished, alongside
the Defense and Security Agreement between [Syria and Lebanon]."
Gemayel also urged to take legal measures against former Assad regime officials
who have found shelter in Lebanon, and to hold them to account for their crimes
against the Lebanese nation. In addition, he called to remove all statues and
monuments in Lebanon that honor Hafez Al-Assad and his family, and to rename
streets and squares whose present names are associated with the Assad regime. He
also emphasized the need to demarcate the land border between the two
countries.[10]
Similar calls were made in an article published by Camille Mourani, of the
Lebanese National Bloc Party. He exhorted the Lebanese government to take the
following measures: establish control of the borders and the border crossings;
prevent former Syrian regime officials and security personnel from entering
Lebanon; arrest all former Syrian regime officials who are present in Lebanon
and are wanted for “regular or political” crimes; remove any symbols of the
Assad regime that are still present on roads and in cities; dismantle the
Syrian-Lebanese Higher Council, and abolish the various agreements, authorized
during the Syrian "occupation" of Lebanon, that have undermined Lebanon’s
rights; issue a joint statement by both countries promising to protect each
other’s sovereignty and refrain from intervening in each other’s affairs;
establish political relations by means of official institutions, and demarcate
the land and maritime borders. In addition, Mourani called on the new Syrian
regime to apologize to the Lebanese people for the crimes of the Assad regime
and to pay “even symbolic” compensation for the previous period. At the same
time, he wrote that Lebanon must apologize to the Syrian people for Hizbullah’s
involvement in defending the Assad regime.
Moreover, Mourani urged the Lebanese government to collect all weapons of the
Palestinian groups loyal to the Assad regime outside of the Palestinian refugee
camps, and to address the issue of Lebanese prisoners in Syrian jails.[11]
Writing on X, Lebanese journalist Rami Na'im called on Lebanon’s security
agencies "to shut down the Syrian embassy in Lebanon and arrest the ambassador
and all the security officials, as a lesson to all those who think it
permissible to do as they please in Lebanon and to kill Lebanese people…" In
another post, he wrote: "In order to prevent a civil war in Lebanon, the
Lebanese state must raid all the offices of non-Lebanese parties in the country
– such as the Ba’ath Party and the Syrian [Social] Nationalist Party – and
remove photos of Bashar Al-Assad and shut down these offices. These parties
participated in crimes against the Lebanese people during the era of the
[former] Syrian regime, and today they threaten Lebanon's peace. If the security
agencies do not take action, this might [be construed as] permission for the
masses to take action, which might lead to civil war. Thanks very much to the
Syrian revolution for liberating Lebanon from the entire [resistance] axis."[12]
Nawal Berro, a columnist for the Lebanese daily Nida Al-Watan, known for its
opposition to the Assad regime, called on the Lebanese government “to remove all
branches of the Syrian regime that still remain” in the country, including the
branches of the Syrian Ba’ath Party, "so we can say that the era of Syrian
occupation, in all its forms, is over."[13]
It should be mentioned that some measures of this kind have already been taken.
For instance, on December 13 the Lebanese daily Al-Nahar reported that, in the
village of Tikrit in northern Lebanon, Lebanese youth “who support the Syrian
opposition” destroyed a monument commemorating Ghazi Taleb, a fighter from the
Syrian Social Nationalist Party, and replaced it with the flag of the Syrian
revolution.[14]
Hizbullah Required To Examine Its Path And Surrender Its Weapons To The State
Lebanese opponents of the Syrian regime also took the opportunity of the
regime’s collapse to attack its allies in Lebanon, chief of them Hizbullah, and
called on this organization to disarm. During celebrations of Assad's downfall
in Beirut, MP Nadim Gemayel, of the Christian Kataeb Party, said: "Just as
Hizbullah’s big brother in Damascus has fallen, the day will come when Hizbullah
[itself] will surrender its weapons, for it has is no other choice."[15]
During the celebrations in Ma'arab, Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea said,
"This day belongs to everyone, but it should be a day of sorrow and disgrace for
those Lebanese who spent decades groveling before the Assad regime in order to
receive some political appointments or a morsel of food. Just as we are happy
and proud, they should be ashamed and refrain from appearing on television, for
we will remind them how they curried favor with Assad, surrendered their honor
and sovereignty and ignored what the Assad regime was doing in Lebanon… Anyone
who believed that Assad was protecting the Christians should be ashamed…"
Addressing Hizbullah, Geagea said, "It’s game over… You should have already
spoken yesterday to the Lebanese Armed Forces and set out a schedule for
eliminating your military infrastructures. We Lebanese must convene and begin
discussing the future of the country. We, like the rest of the Lebanese, will
not agree to return to the past. We do not want what happened in Syria and other
places to happen in Lebanon. You have a week, a month or two months at the most
to confer with the army and find a solution to [the issue of] your weapons.
Either return them to Iran, sell them or hand them over [to the state]."[16]
Lebanese journalist Tony Bouloss expressed similar sentiments. In a post on his
X account, he congratulated “sister” Syria on the conclusion of its “dark
period” and urged Hizbullah, "which has been banished from South [Lebanon] and
from Syria, to learn its lesson and hand over its weapons to the state quickly,
before time runs out."[17]
Dr. Gerard Dib, a Lebanese commentator and columnist for the London-based
Emirati daily Al-Arab, wrote, "The fall of the Syrian regime is a turning point
in Hizbullah's return to the Lebanese fold, after it operated in numerous Arab
and regional arenas. Hizbullah can no longer take independent decisions on
Lebanon's future and open up fronts on some pretext or other against the Israeli
enemy, or any other enemy. It cannot turn back the clock. What happened is a
tremendous event in the history of Syria… Assad's fall draws a new roadmap for
Lebanon… It is no longer possible to include Lebanon in the games of the
[various] axes…"[18]
Assad's Fall Is Another Step In The Collapse Of The Iranian Axis
Opponents of the resistance axis view Assad's fall as a direct result of the
blows sustained by this axis during its fighting with Israel over the past year
– namely the blows sustained by Hamas in Gaza and Hizbullah in Lebanon – and as
another step toward the collapse of the entire axis. At the conclusion of its
weekly meeting, the Christian Saydat Al-Jabal Association issued a statement
saying: "The fall of the Assad regime 13 years after the start of the Syrian
revolution constitutes a major step in the collapse of the Iranian influence
over the region, following the fall of Hamas in Palestine and Hizbullah in
Lebanon. This resounding fall will change the face of the entire region in the
right direction, toward a human, political, economic and modern revival, and
will open a window of hope for the young people and for millions of people who
paid the price of freedom with their lives… We congratulate the Syrian people on
its freedom and hope it will transition from dictatorship to democracy by
agreeing on a new constitution that will enshrine the relationships between its
sectors. The new Syria must respect the sovereignty and independence of Lebanon
and build relationships of cooperation and coordination between the [two]
countries…"[19]
Lebanese journalist Tony Bouloss posted on X: "The Lebanese are just as happy as
the Syrians over the fall of the Syrian dictator Bashar Al-Assad and the
collapse of the Iranian axis. The Middle East will only be stable after the
expulsion of Iran's regional proxies and instruments – starting with Hamas and
Hizbullah, continuing with the Al-Assad regime and the Iraqi [armed] factions,
and culminating with the Houthis in Yemen."[20]
[1] On this see MEMRI reports: Inquiry and Analysis No. 532 – The Syria-Lebanon
Relations Conference: An Opening for Syria's Return to Lebanon – July 7, 2009;
Inquiry & Analysis Series No. 611 - Syria Reimposes Its Patronage over Lebanon –
May 24, 2010.
[2] Al-Jumhouriyya (Lebanon), December 8, 2024.
[3] Al-Quds Al-Arabi (London), December 14, 2024.
[4] X.com/walidjoumbalat, December 7, 2024.
[5] Al-Nahar (Lebanon), December 14, 2024.
[6] Christian Lebanese leader Bachir Gemayel, who was elected president in 1982,
was assassinated that year by Habib Shartouni, a Lebanese agent for the Hafez
Al-Assad regime. Shartouni was a member of the Lebanese branch of the Syrian
Social Nationalist Party.
[7] Mtv.com/lb, December 8, 2024.
[8] X.com/may_chidiac, December 8, 2024.
[9] On May 22, 1991, the Republic of Lebanon and the Syrian Arab Republic signed
the Treaty of Brotherhood, Cooperation and Coordination, which effectively
placed Lebanon under Syrian patronage. The treaty established the Syrian
Lebanese Higher Council, tasked with forming the policies of coordination and
cooperation between the two countries and overseeing their implementation. For
more about Syria’s efforts to establish control of Lebanon by means of these
agreements and institutions, see MEMRI Inquiry & Analysis Series No. 611, Syria
Reimposes Its Patronage over Lebanon, May 24, 2010.
[10] Al-Liwaa (Lebanon), December 12, 2024.
[11] Al-Mudun (Lebanon), December 12, 2024.
[12] X.com/NAIMRami, December 7-8, 2024.
[13] Nida Al-Watan (Lebanon), December 12, 2024.
[14] The report added that the flag of the Syrian revolution was eventually
removed as well, and was replaced with a sign bearing Taleb’s name and the logo
of the Lebanese Armed Forces. Taleb was involved in a 1997 attack against
Israeli forces in Lebanon. (Al-Nahar, Lebanon, December 13, 2024).
[15] X.com/waqa2e3, December 8, 2024.
[16] Mtv.com.lb, December 8, 2024.
[17] X.com/TonyBouloss, December 8, 2024.
[18] Al-Arab (London), December 13, 2024.
[19] Kataeb.org, December 9, 2024.
[20] X.com/TonyBouloss, December 8, 2024.
The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on December
16-17/2024
Israel wages
most violent strikes ever on Syria coast
Associated Press/December 16/2024
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a UK-based war monitor, reported early
Monday that Israeli airstrikes pounded missile warehouses and other former
Syrian army sites along Syria’s coast in the “most violent strikes in the Syrian
coast region since the beginning of the (Israeli) strikes in 2012.”The Israeli
military declined to comment on the strikes. The observatory said that “violent
explosions” were heard in the coastal city of Tartous “as a result of the
successive strikes and the flying of ground-to-ground missiles from the
warehouses.”
Syria retains 26 tons of gold reserves after Assad's fall - report
Reuters/December 16/2024
The dollar reserves have been nearly depleted because the regime increasingly
used them to fund food, fuel and Assad's war effort, current and former Syrian
officials have told Reuters.
The vault of Syria's central bank holds nearly 26 tons of gold, the same amount
it had at the start of its bloody civil war in 2011, even after the chaotic fall
of Bashar al-Assad's despotic regime, four people familiar with the situation
told Reuters. But the country has only a small amount of foreign currency
reserves in cash, the same people said. Syria's gold reserves stood at 25.8 tons
in June 2011, according to the World Gold Council, which cites the Central Bank
of Syria as its data source. That is worth $2.2 billion at current market
prices, according to Reuters calculations. The central bank's foreign exchange
reserves amount, however, to just around $200 million in cash, one of the
sources told Reuters, while another said the US dollar reserves were "in the
hundreds of millions." While not all reserves would be held in cash, the drop is
substantial compared with before the war. At the end of 2011, Syria's central
bank reported $14 billion in foreign reserves, according to the International
Monetary Fund. In 2010, the IMF had estimated Syria's foreign reserves to stand
at $18.5 billion. The dollar reserves have been nearly depleted because the
regime increasingly used them to fund food, fuel and Assad's war effort, current
and former Syrian officials have told Reuters. Media representatives for Syria's
new ruling administration and for the Central Bank of Syria did not respond to
Reuters requests for comment regarding the size of the central bank's reserves.
Syria stopped sharing financial information with the IMF, the World Bank and
other international organizations soon after the Assad regime put down
pro-democracy protests in 2011 in a crackdown that spiraled into civil war.
Syria's new government, led by former rebels, is still taking stock of the
country's assets after Assad fled to Russiaon Dec. 8. Looters briefly accessed
parts of the central bank, taking Syrian pounds with them, but did not breach
the main vault, Reuters reported. Some of what was stolen was then returned by
Syria’s new rulers, Syrian officials told Reuters. The vault is bomb-proof and
requires three keys, each held by a different person, and a combination code to
be opened, said one of the sources. The vault was inspected by members of
Syria's new administration last week, two sources said, days after the rebels
took control of the Syrian capital Damascus in a lightning offensive that ended
more than 50 years of rule by the Assad family. Led by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham
group, a former Al Qaeda affiliate that has long-since disavowed those ties, the
new administration has quickly set up a government and is consolidating control
of state institutions. Reuters could not access the central bank vaults.
Back at work
The central bank's headquarters, a broad white building in central Damascus,
fully reopened on Sunday, the first day of the working week in Syria. It was
teeming with employees as well as people looking to access dollars, while others
were carrying out sacks full of Syrian pounds. Besides its meager US dollar
reserves, the Syrian central bank can currently count on several hundred million
dollars' worth of Syrian pounds in its reserves, one source said. New foreign
currency inflows dwindled because Syria lost its main source of foreign income,
crude oil, when Kurdish fighters and other armed groups seized the fields in the
east of the country during the course of the war. Syria has also been targeted
by strict Western sanctions and the United States has sanctioned the central
bank itself and blacklisted several of its governors. But the sources familiar
with the situation told Reuters the gold was never liquidated in order to keep
sufficient collateral for the Syrian pounds circulating in the market. The
Syrian local currency has depreciated from around 50 pounds per dollar before
the war to around 12,500 as of Monday. Syria's new administration has demanded
the lifting of international sanctions to revitalize the economy, rebuild the
country from years of war and encourage millions of Syrian refugees to return.
But US and European officials have said they will have to wait and see what kind
of administration the country's new Islamist rulers put in place.
Facing terror designations and sanctions, Syria’s new rulers push for
international legitimacy
Nadeen Ebrahim, CNN/December 16,
2024
Syria’s new regime, led by a group with former ties to al Qaeda, is on a mission
to gain international legitimacy – and it’s already seeing some success. Abu
Mohammed al-Jolani, an internationally sanctioned former jihadist, has been
meeting foreign dignitaries since his group Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) ousted
ex-President Bashar al Assad’s regime last week. He seeks to present Syria’s new
regime as a friendly, inclusive and non-belligerent state. On Sunday, he secured
a meeting in Damascus with Geir Otto Pedersen, the UN special envoy for Syria,
who said the international community will “hopefully see a quick end to
sanctions, so that we can see really a rallying around building up Syria
again.”The envoy however warned that there must be “justice and accountability
for crimes,” but that they must go through “a credible justice system.”And on
Monday, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said she “tasked a European top
diplomat in Syria to go to Damascus to make the contacts with the new government
and people there,” adding that EU would consider more steps “if we see that
Syria goes in the right direction.” So far, the United States and the United
Kingdom have also established contact with the rebel groups ruling the country,
along with Qatar and Turkey. UN officials have met with Syria’s interim prime
minister, and the UK this week sent a delegation to Damascus, UK Foreign
Secretary David Lammy said at a press conference on Monday. Experts say that
while Syria’s unfolding events present an opportunity to prevent the state from
collapsing, they also come with uncertainties and risks as the country’s new
leaders come to power – many with an unsavory past. Jolani, who now goes by his
real name Ahmad al-Sharaa, and his group, HTS, burst out of their pocket of
territory in the northwest of Syria earlier this month, swiftly taking control
of the country’s second-largest city Aleppo before capturing the strategic city
of Hama and then the capital Damascus. Despite his efforts over the years to
distance HTS from al Qaeda, the US designated the group a Foreign Terrorist
Organization in 2018 and placed a $10 million bounty on him. HTS and its leader
are also designated as terrorists by the UN and other governments. Qutaiba Idlbi,
a senior fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Middle East Programs who focuses on
Syria, said that while engaging with the US- and UN-designated terrorist
organization “will present its challenges, the designation presents important
leverage for the United States and international partners.”The incoming Trump
administration could “use that leverage to ensure HTS walks the walk as an
acceptable actor within the Syrian scene and affirm it is no longer threatening
US or regional security,” Idlbi wrote for the Atlantic Council, adding that this
can be done through dialogue with Turkey, which had long been at odds with Assad.
On Saturday, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Washington has had direct
contact with HTS, in the first public confirmation of direct contact between the
US and the group. “Yes, we’ve been in contact with HTS and the other parties,”
Blinken said at a news conference in Jordan, adding that the contact was direct.
He gave no details on when the contact was made or at what level. There is no
legal barrier to speaking with a designated terrorist group.
In his first sit-down media interview with CNN at an undisclosed location in
Syria, Jolani pushed back against the enduring terror designation, calling the
label “primarily political and, at the same time, inaccurate.”The rebel leader
has argued that some extreme Islamist practices had “created a divide” between
HTS and jihadist groups early on, and claimed to oppose some of the more brutal
tactics used by other jihadi groups which led to his severing ties with them. He
also claimed that he was never personally involved in attacks on civilians. It
is unclear whether Western states will lift the terror designation or what will
become of the pre-existing sanctions that were placed on the former regime.
Asked whether the terror designation hinders the US’ ability to speak to the
rebel group, and whether the designation will be lifted, a senior state
department official told reporters last week that the US is watching whether
HTS’s statements “are translated into actions on the ground.”“We’re very much
hopeful they will be,” the official said. Syria’s economy has been cripped for
years by Western sanctions. Among the harshest is the US’ 2019 Caesar Act, which
imposed wide-ranging sanctions that restricted individuals, companies or
governments from economic activities assisting Assad’s war effort. The act
rendered the entire economy untouchable. According to the World Bank, the
county’s economy shrank by more than half between 2010 and 2020. As of 2022,
poverty was affecting 69% of Syria’s population, according to the World Bank.
Extreme poverty affected more than one in four Syrians in 2022, the World Bank
said, adding that this number likely deteriorated after a devastating earthquake
in February 2023. Idlbi, of the Atlantic Council, wrote that while Assad’s fall
presents an opportunity, it is “not a panacea and could lead to further
instability if not carefully managed.”“The Biden and Trump administrations must
adopt a balanced and strategic approach, focusing on inclusive governance,
humanitarian support, and regional stability,” Idlbi wrote. “An opportunity of
the kind that now presents itself in Syria comes only once.”
CNN’s Jomana Karadsheh, Gul Tuysuz, Brice Laine, Lauren Kent, Eyad Kourdi,
Jennifer Hansler contributed reporting.
Dramatic fall
of Assad regime creates new reality for the entire region
Mark Weiss/Jerusalem Post/December 16/2024
The fall of the Assad regime was another crushing blow to Tehran, cutting off
its land route to Lebanon, Hezbollah’s oxygen supply line. In the early hours of
Sunday, December 8, President Bashar al-Assad flew out of Syria to Moscow,
ending a 54-year dynasty during which the Assad family had ruled the country
with an iron fist. Hours earlier, rebel forces had entered the capital,
Damascus, simultaneously seizing control of the strategic city of Homs to the
north, after a lightning 12-day campaign that began with a surprise attack on
Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city, on November 27, the same day that Israel
and Lebanon signed a ceasefire. The dramatic fall of the Assad regime, with
barely any resistance, creates a new reality for the entire region and raises
many questions which will only be answered in the coming weeks and months. In
the short term, the events have taken Syria out of the Iranian axis in a
strategic blow to the Shi’ite Ayatollah regime. It opens the way for Syria’s
return to the Arab fold, opening up the possibility for new alliances between
Damascus and moderate Sunni forces in the region. However, much depends on how
events play out in Syria, which groups will assume power, and if a stable regime
can emerge from the current chaos. In the wake of the fall of the Assad regime,
IDF tanks crossed the Golan Heights border and took up positions in the buffer
zone. Israel also reportedly attacked a convoy of some 150 armored vehicles of
Hezbollah Radwan fighters, who backed the Assad regime, as it fled Homs and the
city of al-Qusayr toward the Lebanese border. Earlier, rebel forces seized
control of the city of Quneitra in the Syri an Golan near the Israeli border,
and the Israeli military reported that IDF forces helped repel an attack by
militia forces on a UN post in Syrian territory near the Israeli border. The
rapid advance of the rebel forces took the entire region by surprise, including
the IDF Military Intelligence Directorate and the Mossad. Within days, the
militia fighters captured Aleppo, and a few days later Syria’s third-largest
city, Hama, also fell. They quickly moved on Homs, farther south on the road to
Damascus. Resistance by the Syrian army was feeble, and different rebel groups
in other areas joined the fray. Kurdish militia groups expanded their area of
control in the northwest, and rebel forces in southern Syria captured most of
the Deraa region on the border with Israel and Jordan, where the 2011 uprising
against Assad had begun.
Trump Says Türkiye Is Key Player in Syria’s Future
Asharq Al-Awsat/December 16/2024
US President-elect Donald Trump said on Monday that Türkiye will hold the key to
what happens in Syria, where rebels toppled the government of Bashar al-Assad
earlier this month. Türkiye, a NATO member, backed the opposition whose
assumption of power in Damascus ended Syria's 13-year civil war. Türkiye
reopened its embassy in Damascus on Saturday, two days after its intelligence
chief visited the Syrian capital. “Syria has a lot of indefinites,” added Trump
after the opposition took control of the country.
Israeli Strikes Leave Syrian Ammo Dump a Smoking Ruin
Asharq Al-Awsat/December 16/2024
A Syrian bunker complex outside the port of Tartus was ablaze and rocked by
explosions Monday just hours after what a war monitor and locals said was an
intense wave of Israeli air strikes. Even after the strikes ended, blasts
continued to erupt in a valley outside the village of Bmalkah, a Christian
community in the hills behind the city, which is home to Russia's naval base in
Syria. Israeli planes launched "the heaviest strikes in Syria's coastal region
since the start of strikes in 2012" overnight, according to the UK-based Syrian
Observatory for Human Rights. Coming just over a week after Bashar al-Assad's
regime was ousted in a lightning opposition offensive, the raids targeted
strategic sites and air defenses along Syria's western coast. "It was like an
earthquake. All the windows in my house were blown out," said 28-year-old
Ibrahim Ahmed, an employee in a legal office who had come to a roadside
viewpoint to look down on devastation. The hillsides around Bmalkah and the
base, a cluster of concrete buildings and arched concrete bunker entrances cut
into the hillside to protect stockpiled munitions, were littered with shrapnel.
Missile launch tubes, mortar shells and damaged munitions were scattered on the
ground and plumes of smoke rose from the terraced sides of the valley as parts
of the arsenal continued to detonate.
Shattered glass
In the village of Bmalkah itself, AFP found roads filled with shattered glass
and metal roller doors that had ballooned outwards under the pressure wave
triggered by the strike. There were no reports of civilian casualties, but angry
residents were left to sweep up broken glass and domestic wreckage. Blasts
stripped the leaves from olive trees in groves surrounding the village.
Witnesses said powerful explosions began shortly after midnight and continued
until almost 6:00 am (0300 GMT). Clean-up crews sawed up fallen trees that had
blocked the road to the next village, sweeping up missile and shell parts, even
as the valley echoed to more blasts as pockets of stockpiled munitions caught
fire. "The village did not sleep last night. The kids were crying," said one
middle-aged man with a salt and pepper beard and a blue sweatshirt who refused
to give his name. "Most of the people had already left their homes towards the
city, now they have lost their houses." According to the Observatory, 473
Israeli strikes have targeted military sites in Syria since the opposition
offensive toppled Assad on December 8. Maurice Salloum, a 61-year-old teacher,
was trying to secure his home after the windows blew in, scattering glass and
twisted aluminum among family photos. His two adult sons live abroad in
Venezuela and France and have not heard about the bombing. The internet and
electricity are cut in the village. He told AFP nothing like this had happened
in his community during Syria's long civil war, and that the perpetrators must
have come from outside the country.
Tunnel bunkers
The Observatory said: "Israel is continuing its intensification of air strikes
on Syrian territory, including to completely destroy tunnels under the
mountains". The tunnels are thought to hold "depots of ballistic missiles,
ammunition, artillery shells and other military equipment". Since Assad's fall,
Israel has targeted Syria's fleet, chemical arsenals and air defense bases,
trying to prevent the country's weapons from falling into the hands of the new
government. In a move that has drawn international condemnation, Israel also
seized a United Nations-patrolled buffer zone on the Syrian Golan Heights, just
hours after the rebels took Damascus. Ahmad al-Sharaa, previously known as Abu
Mohammed al-Golani, leader of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham group, which led the
final offensive against Assad, criticized Israel on Saturday but said his
country was too exhausted for fresh conflict. On Sunday, Israeli Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu said his country had "no interest in confronting Syria.
Israel's policy toward Syria will be determined by the evolving reality on the
ground".
UN Envoy Meets Sharaa, Urges ‘Credible and Inclusive’ Transition in Syria
Asharq Al Awsat/December 16/2024
The United Nations told the leader of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham group which
toppled Bashar al-Assad that Syria must have a "credible and inclusive"
transition. The UN special envoy for Syria, Geir Pedersen who arrived in
Damascus on Sunday, has met Ahmad al-Sharaa, previously known as Abu Mohammed
al-Golani, Pedersen's office said Monday in a statement. He also met interim
prime minister Mohammed al-Bashir, it said. Pedersen met them after Saturday's
international meeting on Syria in Jordan, and stressed "the need for a credible
and inclusive Syrian-owned and led political transition based on the principles
of United Nations Security Council resolution 2254 (2015)". The UN envoy also
underlined "the intention of the United Nations to render all assistance to the
Syrian people" and was briefed on their "challenges and priorities", the
statement added. "The Special Envoy stressed the intention of the United Nations
to render all assistance to the Syrian people," it continued. It said Pedersen
had several engagements planned in the days ahead, but did not elaborate. Assad
was toppled by a lightning 11-day opposition offensive that swept down from
northwest Syria, with fighters entering the capital on December 8.
Abandoned by his Russian and Iranian backers, Assad fled into exile in Moscow,
bring to an end five decades of abuses by his family. The HTS group that led his
overthrow is a former branch of Al-Qaeda in Syria, and the United States and
other Western governments still classify it as a "terrorist" group. Several
countries including the United States and Britain have said they have already
made contact with Sharaa.
Kremlin Says No Final Decisions Yet on Fate of Russian Military Bases in Syria
Asharq Al Awsat/December 16/2024
The Kremlin said on Monday that no final decisions had yet been taken on the
fate of Russia's military bases in Syria and that it was in contact with those
in charge of the country. Four Syrian officials told Reuters over the weekend
that Russia is pulling back its military from the front lines in northern Syria
and from posts in the Alawite Mountains but is not leaving its two main bases
after the fall of President Bashar al-Assad. Russia said on Sunday it had
evacuated some diplomatic personnel in Damascus as well as Belarusian and North
Korean diplomats via a special Russian air force flight from its Hmeimim air
base.
Assad Reportedly Says He Had No Plans to Leave Syria, Was Evacuated by Russians
Asharq Al Awsat/December 16/2024
Syria's Bashar al-Assad reportedly issued his first statement since being
toppled from power, saying he was evacuated to Russia from the Hmeimim base on
Dec. 8 as it came under drone attack, after leaving Damascus that morning with
opposition factions closing in. His written statement was published on the
Syrian presidency's Telegram channel and dated Dec. 16 from Moscow, where he has
been granted asylum. He was ousted after insurgent forces led by the Hayat
Tahrir al-Sham swept through Syria in a lightning offensive, ending more than 50
years of iron-fisted rule by his family. "At no point during these events did I
consider stepping down or seeking refuge, nor was such a proposal made by any
individual party," Assad said in the statement detailing the circumstances
leading to his departure from Syria. He said he had remained in the capital
Damascus, carrying out his duties until the early hours of Sunday, Dec. 8. "As
terrorist forces infiltrated Damascus, I moved to Latakia in coordination with
our Russian allies to oversee combat operations", he said, Reuters reported. But
upon arriving at the Russian air base of Hmeimim that morning "it became clear
that our forces had completely withdrawn from all battle lines and that the last
army positions had fallen". The Russian military base came "under intensified
attack by drone strikes" and "with no viable means of leaving the base, Moscow
requested that the base's command arrange an immediate evacuation to Russia",
the statement said. The Kremlin said on Dec. 9 that President Vladimir Putin had
made the decision to grant Assad asylum in Russia, which deployed its air force
to Syria in 2015 to help him repel rebel forces. Reuters reported last week that
Assad confided in almost no one about his plans to flee Syria. Instead, aides,
officials and even relatives were deceived or kept in the dark, more than a
dozen people with knowledge of the events told Reuters.
What Is the Significance of the Golan Heights?
Asharq Al-Awsat/December 16/2024
The Israeli government decided on Sunday to double its population on the
occupied Golan Heights while saying threats from Syria remained despite the
moderate tone of opposition leaders who ousted President Bashar al-Assad. Israel
captured most of the strategic plateau from Syria in the 1967 Six-Day War and
annexed it in 1981. After Assad fled Syria on Dec. 8, Israeli troops moved into
a demilitarized zone inside Syria, including the Syrian side of strategic Mount
Hermon, which overlooks Damascus, where its forces took over an abandoned Syrian
military post.
Israel called the incursion a temporary measure to ensure border security.
Following is a quick guide to the hilly, 1,200-square-kilometre (460
square-mile) Golan Heights, a fertile and strategic plateau that overlooks
Israel's Galilee region as well as Lebanon, and borders Jordan.
WHY IS THE AREA CONTENTIOUS?
In 2019 then-President Donald Trump declared US support for Israeli sovereignty
over the Golan, but the annexation has not been recognized by most countries.
Syria demands Israel withdraw but Israel refuses, citing security concerns.
Syria tried to regain the Golan in the 1973 Arab-Israeli war, but was thwarted.
Israel and Syria signed an armistice in 1974 and the Golan has been relatively
quiet since. In 2000 Israel and Syria held their highest-level talks over a
possible return of the Golan and a peace agreement. But the negotiations
collapsed and subsequent talks also failed. Netanyahu said on Sunday that he
spoke on Saturday with Trump, who returns to the White House on Jan. 20. The
Israeli leader said his country had no interest in conflict with Syria.
WHY DOES ISRAEL WANT THE GOLAN?
Security. Israel said earlier in Syria's more than decade-long civil war that it
demonstrated the need to keep the plateau as a buffer zone between Israeli towns
and the instability of its neighbor. Israel's government also voiced concern
that Iran, a longtime ally of the Assad regime, was trying to cement its
presence on Syria's side of the border in order to launch attacks on Israel.
Israel frequently bombed suspected Iranian military assets in Syria in the years
before Assad's fall. Israel and Syria have both coveted the Golan's water
resources and naturally fertile soil.
WHO LIVES ON THE GOLAN?
Some 31,000 Israelis have settled there, said analyst Avraham Levine of the Alma
Research and Education Center specializing in Israel's security challenges on
its northern border. Many work in farming, including vineyards, and tourism. The
Golan is home to 24,000 Druze, an Arab minority, Levine said. Many of the Druze
adherents in Syria were long loyal to the Assad regime. Many families have
members on both sides of the demarcation line. After annexing the Golan, Israel
gave the Druze the option of citizenship, but most rejected it and still
identify as Syrian.
WHO CONTROLS THE SYRIAN SIDE OF THE GOLAN?
Before the outbreak of Syria's civil war in 2011, there was an uneasy stand-off
between Israeli and Syrian forces. But in 2014 anti-government factions overran
Quneitra province on the Syrian side. The fighters forced Assad's forces to
withdraw and also turned on UN forces in the area, forcing them to pull back
from some of their positions. The area remained under opposition control until
the summer of 2018, when Assad's forces returned to the largely ruined city of
Quneitra and the surrounding area following a Russian-backed offensive and a
deal that allowed the opposition to withdraw.
WHAT SEPARATES THE TWO SIDES ON THE GOLAN?
A United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) is stationed in camps and
observation posts along the Golan, supported by military observers of the United
Nations Truce Supervision Organization (UNTSO). Between the Israeli and Syrian
armies is a 400-square-km (155-square-mile) "Area of Separation" - often called
a demilitarized zone - in which the two countries' armed forces are not
permitted under the ceasefire arrangement. The Separation of Forces Agreement of
May 31, 1974, created an Alpha Line to the west of the area of separation,
behind which Israeli military forces must remain, and a Bravo Line to the east
behind which Syrian military forces must remain. Extending 25 km (15 miles)
beyond the "Area of Separation" on both sides is an "Area of Limitation" in
which there are restrictions on the number of troops and number and kinds of
weapons that both sides can have there.
There is one crossing point between the Israeli and Syrian sides, which until
the Syrian civil war began was used mainly by United Nations forces, a limited
number of Druze civilians and for the transport of agricultural produce.
WHAT HAS HAPPENED SINCE ASSAD'S OUSTER?
Netanyahu's government unanimously approved a more than 40-million-shekel ($11
million) plan on Sunday to encourage demographic growth in the Golan. It said
Netanyahu submitted the plan to the government "in light of the war and the new
front facing Syria, and out of a desire to double the population of the
Golan".Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates condemned Israel's
decision, with the UAE - which normalized relations with Israel in 2020 -
describing it as a "deliberate effort to expand the occupation". Israel has
carried out hundreds of strikes on Syria's strategic weapons stockpiles and
military infrastructure, it says, to prevent them from being used by opposition
groups that drove Assad from power, some of which grew from movements linked to
al-Qaeda. Syria's de facto leader, Ahmad al-Sharaa, said on Saturday that Israel
was using false pretexts to justify its attacks on Syria, but he was not
interested in engaging in new conflicts as his country focuses on rebuilding.
Sharaa - better known as Abu Mohammed al-Golani - leads the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham
(HTS) group that ousted Assad on Dec. 8, ending the family's five-decade
iron-fisted rule. He said diplomatic solutions were the only way to ensure
security and stability and that "uncalculated military adventures" were not
wanted. Israel Defense Minister Israel Katz said in a statement on Sunday that
the latest developments in Syria increased the threat to Israel, "despite the
moderate image that the rebel leaders claim to present".
Syria’s Ports Working Normally as Ukraine Looks to Supply Staple Foods
Asharq Al-Awsat/December 16/2024
Syria's main ports are working normally after days of disruptions, maritime
officials said on Monday, and Ukraine said it was in touch with the interim
government about delivering staple foods. President Bashar al-Assad was ousted
on Dec. 8 by opposition forces led by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham group. Since
then, Israel has carried out airstrikes around Syria's main port Latakia, and
shipping sources also said ports had been short of workers. On Monday, port
official Hasan Jablawi told Reuters that Latakia was functioning normally and
cargo ships that had been waiting for several days were unloading. The
Turkish-flagged Med Urla general cargo vessel was among the first ships to
discharge and sail from Latakia on Monday, according to LSEG ship tracking data.
Shipping sources said Syria's other main port Tartous was also operating,
although there was a backlog to clear. Russian and Syrian sources said on Friday
that Russian wheat supplies to Syria had been suspended after two vessels
carrying Russian wheat had failed to reach their destinations in Syria. Russia,
the world's largest wheat exporter, had dominated wheat sales to Syria,
according to shipping and trade sources, using complex financial and logistical
arrangements to circumvent Western sanctions. Figures on Syria's needs or stock
levels were not readily available, however. Ukrainian President Volodymyr
Zelenskiy said on Saturday his government would set up mechanisms to deliver
food to Syria together with international organisations and partners. "We can
help Syrians with Ukrainian wheat, flour, and oil," he added in his daily
wartime address on Sunday. A Ukrainian industry source confirmed there was
active communication with the Syrian administration over food shipments.
Syria’s Jolani
says ‘contract’ between state and all religions needed for ‘social justice’
AFP/December 17, 2024
DAMASCUS: Abu Mohammed Al-Jolani, leader of the Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham group that
toppled Syrian president Bashar Assad, said Monday that a “social contract”
between the state and all religions in the country was needed to ensure “social
justice.”
“Syria must remain united, and there must be a social contract between the state
and all religions to guarantee social justice,” said Jolani, who now goes by his
real name Ahmed Al-Sharaa, on Telegram.
‘We’re All Syrians’: Soldiers Hand in Weapons, Hope for Quiet Lives
Asharq Al-Awsat/December 16/2024
When Syria's new government put out a call on social media for soldiers and
police to lay down their arms and register with the authorities, Kamal Merhej
was happy to oblige. "I don't like the army, I want to get back on track with my
life without anyone giving me orders," the 28-year-old told AFP. He spent nine
years in the army, posted to the capital Damascus, and said he was now happy to
be back in his home city of Latakia on the Mediterranean coast. Latakia is
located in the heartland of former President Bashar al-Assad's Alawite sect, and
Merhej was among several hundred servicemen waiting to register with the
country's new rulers. Assad was ousted after a lightning offensive spearheaded
by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) that wrested from his control city after city
until the rebels reached Damascus. After the army fled the offensive, Syria's
new rulers announced an amnesty for conscripts while vowing to bring people who
had committed serious crimes to justice.Now, the interim government is
registering former conscripts and soldiers and asking them to hand over their
weapons. After starting the process in the central city of Homs on Saturday,
they set up offices in Latakia on Sunday. Some 400 men showed up on the first
day, according to 26-year-old Mohammed Mustafa, a fighter from the opposition
stronghold of Idlib who was overseeing the operation.
"But there will be more today (Monday), we have drafted in more staff to speed
up operations," he said.
Permits for protection -
The men entered one by one, their identity cards in hand, and each took a
number.
They stood next to the wall, had their photos quickly snapped on smartphones,
before being directed to a bank of desks where they gave more details.
By mid-morning, the number was already at 671.
"In total, we are expecting at least 10,000 people, maybe more... we are in the
region of the Assads," said Mustafa, dressed in fatigues, a black cap and face
mask.
He said the operation was running smoothly. "We issue them a three-month permit
for their protection and to give us time to investigate their past," he said.
"If we find serious crimes they will be transferred to the judicial
authorities."
Soldiers, police and a few civilians came to surrender their weapons and in
return they were given receipts. A white-haired man approached the window and
unpacked a veritable arsenal from plastic bags before leaving with his receipt.
Pistols, automatic rifles, ammunition, grenades and even a grenade launcher
packed into a garbage bag piled up at the back of the room.
'Tired of war'
Like others in the queue, police officer Mohammed Fayoub said he wanted to get
registered as soon as possible. Clutching the receipt for the pistol he handed
in, the 37-year-old, originally from Latakia, said he hoped to return to his job
in Hama in central Syria. "They behave well, they try to be polite. I want to be
ready when they call me," he said of the new administration.
"We're all humans, all Syrians."
There were nods of agreement from others waiting in the queue. "We are tired of
the war. We want to live in a peaceful, civilized country," said a young man. He
lowered his voice to say he belonged to the Alawite minority, the same group as
the Assad family. "We need security, only security," he said. Hassun Nebras, 37,
a mechanic in the army in Homs, said all he wanted was to restart civilian life
and be with his children. "We did what we were asked," he said of his previous
job. "We didn't want to, but we had no choice."
Extremism, Russia and Iran Have No Place in Syria’s Future,
Says EU’s Kallas
Asharq Al-Awsat/December 16/2024
Extremism, Russia and Iran should not have a place in Syria’s future, EU's
foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas told reporters on Monday after meeting with
European foreign ministers. "Many foreign ministers emphasized that it should be
a condition for the new leadership to eliminate Russian influence (in Syria),"
Kallas said. Four Syrian official told Reuters on Saturday that while Russia is
pulling back its military from the front lines in northern Syria and from posts
in the Alawite Mountains, Moscow is not leaving its two main bases in the
country after the fall of President Bashar al-Assad.
Hunt for Assad Family’s Missing Billions Begins
Asharq Al-Awsat/December 16/2024
With the collapse of President Bashar Assad’s regime in Syria, a global hunt is
now beginning for the billions of dollars in cash and assets his family has
stashed away, The Wall Street Journal reported. “There will be a hunt for the
regime’s assets internationally,” said Andrew Tabler, a former White House
official who identified assets of Assad family members through work on US
sanctions. “They had a lot of time before the revolution to wash their money.
They always had a Plan B and are now well equipped for exile.”Assad fled Syria
to Russia on Dec. 8 as opposition fighters rapidly advanced on the capital,
Damascus, ending his 24-year rule. The exact size of the wealth of the Assad
family and which family member controls what assets isn’t known. A report by the
State Department in 2022 said a figure was hard to determine, but estimated
businesses and assets connected to the Assads could be worth as much as $12
billion, or as low as $1 billion, The Wall Street Journal said. The assessment
said the money was often obtained through state monopolies and drug dealing,
especially the amphetamine captagon, and partly reinvested in jurisdictions out
of reach of international law. The wealth of the Assad clan continued to grow as
regular Syrians struggled with the impact of the country’s civil war, which
began in 2011. The World Bank calculated that in 2022 almost 70% of the
population lived in poverty. Many of the heavily militarized regime’s most
powerful figures were business-minded, notably Bashar al-Assad’s British-born
wife, Asma, a former banker at JPMorgan. “The ruling family was as much an
expert in criminal violence as it was in financial crime,” said Toby Cadman, a
London-based human-rights lawyer with Guernica 37 International Justice
Chambers, who has investigated Assad’s assets.
Finding and freezing the assets will likely be difficult. The US mounted a
lengthy sanctions campaign against the Assad regime, forcing its moneymen to
hide wealth outside the West and via tax havens. Legal teams have already
managed to secure some asset freezes related to the Assads’ wealth. A Paris
court in 2019 froze 90 million euros worth of property—equivalent to $95
million—held in France by Rifaat al-Assad, an uncle of Bashar al-Assad who
oversaw a brutal opposition crackdown in 1982. The tribunal ruled the assets
were obtained through organized laundering of embezzled public funds. William
Bourdon, the human-rights lawyer who filed the case in Paris, said money in tax
havens would be much harder to recover. Investigators need to seek court orders
freezing assets and then enforce their recovery, and it is also not clear who
would receive the funds. The Assad clan started accumulating a fortune soon
after Hafez al-Assad took control of Syria following a bloodless coup.
Hafez put his brother-in-law Mohammad Makhlouf, then a modest airline employee,
in charge of the country’s lucrative tobacco-import monopoly, said Ayman Abdel
Nour, a university friend of Bashar al-Assad. Makhlouf took large commissions on
the booming construction sector, said Abdel Nour, who was also later an unpaid
adviser to Bashar al-Assad. When Bashar succeeded his father as leader in 2000,
Makhlouf passed the business empire to his own son, Rami. The Makhloufs were
expected to make money on the behalf of the president and bankroll the regime
and its ruling family when needed, said Bourdon, the Paris lawyer who has
investigated Assad’s assets. “The Makhloufs are the chamberlains to the Assads,”
said Bourdon. Rami Makhlouf later became the regime’s primary financier with
assets in banking, media, duty-free shops, airlines and telecommunications,
becoming worth as much as $10 billion, according to the State Department. The US
government sanctioned Makhlouf in 2008 for benefiting from and aiding the public
corruption of Syrian regime officials. According to a 2019 investigation by
anticorruption group Global Witness, members of the Makhlouf family owned
roughly $40 million worth of property in luxury skyscrapers in Moscow. Then in
2020, the economic relationship at the heart of the Syrian regime frayed. Bashar
al-Assad publicly sidelined Rami Makhlouf. The circumstances of their falling
out remain murky. But the Syrian leader was tightening control over the levers
of the failing Syrian economy. Makhlouf was placed under house arrest and Syrian
authorities put many of his business interests into state receivership, The Wall
Street Journal has previously reported. “We have the duty to recover the money
for the Syrian people,” said Bourdon.
Houthis fire ballistic
missile at Tel Aviv, fragments crash into Jerusalem apartment
Jerusalem Post/December 16/2024
The IAF's 'Arrow' air defense system intercepted a missile that was launched
from the Houthis in Yemen on Monday, which activated sirens in Tel Aviv, and
surrounding areas, the military announced. On Monday evening, the police
reported that fragments from the missile hit the roof of a residential building
in the Beit Hanina neighborhood of Jerusalem, and penetrated into the apartment
below. Magen David Adom and the police both said that no reports of injuries or
fallen shrapnel were received following the interception. The IDF added that the
missile itself did not cross into Israeli territory, however, alerts sounded due
to concerns over falling debris from the interception. Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu was giving testimony for Case 4000 in Tel Aviv District Court at the
time of the sirens. The testimony continued regardless as the hearing is taking
place in an underground hall, Maariv reported. According to Israeli media,
takeoffs and landings at Ben Gurion Airport were temporarily suspended but have
since been resumed as normal. Houthi statement. Shortly after the launch, Houthi
spokesperson Yahya Saree released a statement saying that the group had carried
out "two military operations, the first targeting a military site in occupied
Ashkelon and the second targeting a site in occupied Jaffa." Additionally, Saree
claimed the Houthis had carried out a joined drone operation with the Islamic
Resistance in Iraq, targeting sites in southern Israel. No sirens were sounded
in Ashkelon or other areas in southern Israel. The Houthis sent a ballistic
missile into central Israel on December 1, which was similarly intercepted prior
to reaching Israeli territory. However, on the 9 December, the Houthis
successfully sent a drone into Israeli territory which crashed into a penthouse
balcony of a high-rise building in the city of Yavne with no sirens sounding. No
injuries were reported, but the property was damaged. Since November, the
Houthis have fired six ballistic missiles and five drones at Israel.
Israel is likely to
finally respond to Yemen's Houthis, 'Post' has learned
Jerusalem Post/December 16/2024
The Jerusalem Post learned that Israel has lost patience with the Houthis and
may be ready to act.
Israel is likely to finally respond to Yemen’s Houthis in the coming weeks, The
Jerusalem Post learned on Monday following yet another ballistic missile attack
by the Iranian proxy. The IDF air defense intercepted a ballistic missile fired
by Yemen’s Houthis on Monday, setting off sirens across central Israel, the army
announced at 3:23 p.m. The IDF added that the missile did not cross into Israeli
territory. However, alerts were triggered due to the possibility of falling
debris from the interception. Generally, only the Arrow missile defense system
is capable of shooting down ballistic missiles, as opposed to the Iron Dome,
which shoots down lower-grade rockets. Moreover, the cost of shooting down
ballistic missiles can be as high as two to three million dollars per
interceptor when the Arrow 2 or 3 is used. Estimates are that the Houthis have
fired around a dozen ballistic missiles and drones at Israel since the start of
November, including several in the last two weeks. Despite these ongoing
attacks, Israel has failed to respond since October. Tackling the Houthi threat.
On December 2, the Post reported that it was unclear if or when Israel would
respond to the Houthi ballistic missile attack from the day before. The
ballistic missile on December 1 was shot down outside of Israeli territory. No
Israelis were killed or injured directly from the missile, but some shrapnel did
land in certain central Israel areas, and a small number of persons got injured
rushing for shelter. Also, that missile – like Monday’s missile – set off
warning sirens for almost all of central Israel since it was unclear exactly
where it might hit if it had penetrated Israel’s air defense. Because no one was
killed or injured, because Israel had recently wrapped up a ceasefire with
Hezbollah, because Israel has been hoping to wrap up a deal with Hamas as well,
because Yemen is more than 1,800 km. away, and because some of Israel’s grand
strategy for the region is waiting for US President-elect Donald Trump to enter
the White House on January 20, there were no signs whatsoever to date of an
Israeli response. If Yemen had not attacked again after December 1, Israel might
have chosen not to respond at all. Unlike the other two instances when the
Houthis attacked in July and September and top Israeli officials quickly vowed a
response, here officials were largely silent – until Monday. But on Monday,
sources finally indicated a loss of patience with the Houthis.
On September 29, the IDF undertook a massive strike against the Houthis, which
greatly exceeded the massive strike on Hodeidah in July. Each of these attacks
achieved some temporary quiet from the Houthis, but in both cases, within a
month or so after Israel’s counterstrike, the Houthis started to attack Israel
again. US efforts to stop Houthi aggression beyond their country have also
failed to date. THE IDF on Monday announced that the volume of suspected West
Bank terrorists it has arrested crossed the 6,000-person mark since the start of
the current war 14 months ago. While at the start of the war, around 60% or more
of those arrested were members of Hamas, already in early 2024, the ratio was
reversed and the majority of those arrested were not necessarily affiliated with
Hamas. At this point, the IDF said that 2,350 – or around 39%, a low for the war
– are members of Hamas. Those arrested who are not members of Hamas can be
members of Islamic Jihad or the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP),
but more recently have been local gangs and militias who are not affiliated with
wider terror groups.
Some of the arrests made overnight were unusual, such as the arrests of more
than 10 suspects and the seizure of over NIS one million in terror funds from
Jericho, villages in the Etzion bloc, and other areas. There were also arrests
and seizures of terror funds in northern Samaria near Salem, including
confiscating some weapons. Eight suspects were arrested in northern Samaria and
three in the other areas.
According to the human rights NGO HaMoked and based on data from the Israel
Prison Service, as of December 2024, Israel holds 10,154 different categories of
security prisoners – by far the largest number since the First Intifada of
1987-1991. Of these, 2,003 are sentenced prisoners, 2,951 detainees are remanded
in custody pending their trials, and 3,428 administrative detainees are being
held outside standard criminal proceedings. Most of these Palestinians come from
the West Bank. Israel also holds 1,772 people as “unlawful combatants,” though
this number has continually dropped after having reached thousands at the start
of the war. Periodically and quietly, Israel has sent many of the unlawful
combatants back to Gaza if and when it does not feel it has sufficient evidence
to indict them. Israel has also killed over 750 Palestinians in the West Bank,
though IDF sources have told The Jerusalem Post that only around 3%, or around
25 Palestinian civilians, have been mistakenly killed during gunfights between
the IDF and Palestinian terrorists in urban settings. Israel has been criticized
for the number of arrests and especially the number of administrative detainees.
However, so much criticism has focused on alleged war crimes in Gaza, that there
has been less attention this year to alleged violations by Israel against
Palestinians in the West Bank.
On the other end of the spectrum, Israelis living in the West Bank have
criticized the IDF for being too lenient and slow to attack and arrest suspected
Palestinian terrorists, which they say has led to an unprecedented number of
terror attacks throughout the war. In Gaza, the Israel Air Force struck Hamas
terrorists operating in a command and control center embedded in what had
previously been the UNRWA “Sheikh Jamil School” in Khan Yunis on Sunday, the
military said on Monday morning. The school, also dubbed the “Ahmed Abdul Aziz
School,” was located within the Khan Yunis humanitarian zone in southern Gaza,
the IDF added. The military further noted that the terrorists had planned to
carry out terror activities against IDF troops and the State of Israel from
within the training compound in the area. Before the strike, the IDF implemented
extensive precautions to minimize civilian harm, including the use of aerial
surveillance, intelligence, and precision munitions, the military said. “The
terrorists operated from a structure that previously served as a school, which
is yet another example of how the terrorist organization systematically operates
within civilian population,” the IDF stated. “The terrorist organizations in the
Gaza Strip systematically violate international law, exploiting civilian
infrastructure and the Gazan population as human shields for terrorist
activity,” it added.
*Jerusalem Post Staff contributed to this report.
Trump repeats
warning to Hamas to release hostages soon or face consequences
Reuters/December 16/2024
Trump said he would discuss ways to bring an end to the Ukraine war with Russian
President Vladimir Putin and Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky. United States
President-elect Donald Trump said on Monday that he had a "very good talk" with
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, about the status of the war in Gaza. Trump
described it as a "recap call" ahead of his taking office on Jan. 20. “We had a
very good talk. And we discussed what is going to happen, and I’ll be very
available on January 20 and we'll see," Trump said. "As you know, I gave a
warning that if these hostages aren't back home by that date, all hell is going
to break out," he said. Trump added that he would discuss ways to bring an end
to the Ukraine war with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukraine President
Volodymyr Zelensky. At a news conference at his Mar-a-Lago club in Palm Beach,
Florida, Trump said he had seen horrific images of death and destruction from
the war and that "it's got to stop." Trump said on Monday that his
administration will "take a look" at whether the Chinese-owned social media app
TikTok should be banned in the United States. "I have a warm spot in my heart
for TikTok," Trump said during a press conference at his resort in Palm Beach,
Florida. President Joe Biden signed a bill earlier this year that would force
TikTok's Chinese parent, ByteDance, to sell the popular app by Jan. 19. Trump
continued to say he does not like mandates for vaccines but that he is a "big
believer" in the polio vaccine. At a news conference at his Mar-a-Lago club in
Palm Beach, Florida, Trump said all vaccines should be looked at. Asked whether
schools should mandate vaccines, he said he does not like mandates.
Death Toll in Gaza
Strip from Israel-Hamas War Tops 45,000, Palestinians Say
Asharq Al-Awsat/December 16/2024
Health officials in the Gaza Strip said on Monday the death toll from the
14-month war between Israel and Hamas has topped 45,000 people. The Gaza Health
Ministry does not distinguish between civilians and combatants in its count, but
it has said that more than half of the fatalities are women and children. The
Israeli military says it has killed more than 17,000 fighters, without providing
evidence. The Health Ministry said 45,028 people have been killed and 106,962
have been wounded since the start of the war in October 2023. It has said the
real toll is higher because thousands of bodies are still buried under rubble or
in areas that medics cannot access. The latest war has been by far the deadliest
round of fighting between Israel and Hamas, with the death toll now amounting to
roughly 2% of Gaza’s entire prewar population of about 2.3 million. Israel
claims Hamas is responsible for the civilian death toll because it operates from
within civilian areas in the densely populated Gaza Strip. Rights groups and
Palestinians say Israel has failed to take sufficient precautions to avoid
civilian deaths. The war began when Hamas-led fighters stormed into southern
Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, killing some 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and
abducting another 250. Around 100 hostages are still inside Gaza, at least a
third of whom are believed to be dead. Most of the rest were released during a
cease-fire last year.
Overnight strike
Earlier, an Israeli strike killed at least 10 people, including a family of
four, in Gaza City overnight, Palestinian medics said Monday. The strike late
Sunday hit a house in Gaza City’s eastern Shijaiyah neighborhood, according to
the Health Ministry’s emergency service. Rescuers recovered the bodies of 10
people from under the rubble, including those of two parents and their two
children, it said. A separate strike on a school on Sunday in the southern city
of Khan Younis killed at least 13 people, including six children and two women,
according to Nasser Hospital where the bodies were taken. The hospital initially
reported the strike had killed 16 people, but it later revised the death toll as
the three other bodies had been from a separate strike that hit a house. The
Israeli military said it had “conducted a precise strike on Hamas terrorists who
were operating inside a command and control center embedded within a compound”
that had served as a school in Khan Younis. It did not provide evidence. In
central Gaza's Nuseirat urban refugee camp, mourners gathered for the funeral of
a Palestinian journalist working for the Qatari-based Al Jazeera TV network who
was killed Sunday in a strike on a point for Gaza's civil defense agency. They
carried his body through the street from the hospital, his blue bulletproof vest
resting atop. The strike also killed three civil defense workers, including the
local head of the agency, according to Al-Aqsa Martyrs Hospital. The civil
defense is Gaza’s main rescue agency and operates under the Hamas-run
government. Al Jazeera said Ahmad Baker Al-Louh, 39, had been covering rescue
operations of a family wounded in an earlier bombing when he was killed. The
Israeli military said it had targeted Hamas and Islamic Jihad fighters “who were
operating in a command and control center embedded in the offices of the ‘Civil
Defense’ organization in Nuseirat.” It accused the journalist of having been a
member of Islamic Jihad, an accusation his colleagues in Gaza denied. Gaza's
civil defense also rejected the claims that fighters had been operating from the
site. “We were stunned by the Israeli occupation statement,” Mahmoud Al-Louh,
the journalist’s cousin, told The Associated Press. “These claims are lies and
misleading to cover up this crime.”
Israeli strike on UN
school in Gaza kills at least 20, survivors say
CBC/December 16, 2024
Salma Saud was sleeping in the Ahmed bin Abdul Aziz School in Khan Younis when
rubble and debris fell on top of her. "I felt fear and thought maybe this is
it," the 19-year-old told CBC News. The rubble was from an Israeli strike on the
United Nations-run school. At least 20 displaced Palestinians sheltering in the
building were killed when Israel bombarded the building without warning,
survivors said. "My sister lost consciousness … [and] my mother, as soon as I
removed the rubble I knew she was martyred," Saud said. "I lost my father before
today … and today I lost my mother." Survivors say the strike hit the building
at around 9:30 p.m. Many there, including 30-year-old Khitam Al-Tarawsa, were
taking refuge in the school after Israeli attacks forced them to flee several
times. "The children were in a panic, and even us, the adults, we were in a
panic," she said. "We started running in the middle of the night and found three
or four classrooms fallen on top of each other and there were martyrs."The
strike was one of several Israeli weekend attacks across the besieged territory,
including in Beit Hanoon and Deir el-Balah. Elsewhere, an airstrike hit the
civil emergency centre in the Nuseirat market area in the central Gaza Strip,
killing Ahmed Al-Louh, a video journalist for Al Jazeera TV, and five other
people, medics and fellow journalists said. Another strike on a house in the
Nuseirat camp killed five people, including children, according to medics. The
Israeli military said it targeted sites used by Hamas and Islamic Jihad
militants operating from Gaza's Civil Defence's Nuseirat office. But those hit
by the strikes contest that the vast majority of those killed were women and
children. "We were just sitting in our homes, innocent people in their space.
Suddenly, they saw the bomb landing in the middle of the room," said Khaldiya
Tafesh, who lost her son and seven grandchildren to the strike on the UN
school."There wasn't anyone wanted or anything." 'I lost everyone' Al-Tarawsa
and her family were displaced to the Nasser Hospital after the Israeli attack,
but they returned to the school in the morning to assess the damage. She said
everything was destroyed, "nothing is in one piece, no furniture left."Survivors
say Israel didn't warn them prior to the attack, so many of those in the
building were asleep when the bomb hit. "The bomb came down and we don't know
from where or who was affected," said Al-Tarawsa. "Until now, our heads
hurt."The attack left a bloody scene for the survivors and medical personnel.
Al-Tarawsa says shrapnel from the attack hit her and her children, who were
sitting near the site of the bombing. Elsewhere in the building, 23-year-old
Bisan Azdoudi says she saw the brains of loved ones fly out of the heads. "I
lost my uncle, I lost everyone. No one is left for me," she said. "I tried to
get my brothers and sisters out from under the rubble. No one is left." Sharif
Awda says they were taking women and children in pieces to the hospital, as the
strike and its impact had cut them apart. "We never imagined they would strike
this school," he said. "If you were to strike an UNRWA school you should warn
them."
Death toll more than 45,000: Health Ministry
Gaza's Health Ministry updated the death toll to 45,028 people on Monday, with
106,962 others injured since the start of the war. The official toll amounts to
about two per cent of Gaza's entire pre-war population of 2.3 million — though
officials say the real toll is higher because thousands of bodies are still
buried under rubble or in areas medics can't access. Israel claims Hamas is
responsible for the civilian death toll because it operates from within civilian
areas in the densely populated Gaza Strip, but rights groups and Palestinians
say Israel has failed to take sufficient precautions to avoid civilian deaths. A
man reacts after a loved one was found in the aftermath of an Israeli strike on
the Ahmed bin Abdul Aziz School. The Israeli military says it has killed more
than 17,000 militants, without providing evidence. The Gaza Health Ministry does
not distinguish between civilians and combatants in its count, but it has said
that more than half of the fatalities are women and children. Furthermore, UN
agencies, the International Committee of the Red Cross and even the United
States have used the Health Ministry's numbers in the past. With the death toll
mounting ever higher, efforts to reach a ceasefire have picked up in recent
weeks after repeatedly faltering. Qatar, Egypt and the U.S. have renewed their
efforts to broker a deal at senior levels in recent days. Mediators have said
there appears to be more willingness from both sides to conclude a ceasefire.
Al-Tarawsa says she has no energy left to deal with Israel's constant attacks,
which have been ongoing since Hamas militants stormed into Israel on Oct. 7,
2023. Israel says that attack killed about 1,200 people in Israel and that about
240 hostages were taken back to Gaza. "We're tired of the bombings and the war,"
Al-Tarawsa said.
"We live here, yes, but there's no safety. We live between walls, no door is
safe, no window is safe. Nothing is safe."
Palestinian security forces launch a rare crackdown on militants in the West
Bank
Majdi Mohammed And Aref Tufaha/JENIN,
West Bank (AP)/December 16, 2024
Palestinian security forces have launched a rare crackdown against local
militant groups in the northern West Bank, sending in armored cars and engaging
in fierce gunbattles that have killed at least two people in the volatile area.
The raid marks an unusual step for the Palestinian Authority, the governing body
for semi-autonomous pockets in the occupied West Bank that is internationally
recognized but has largely lost control of militant strongholds such as Jenin,
where forces operated through the weekend and into Monday. Israeli troops have
stepped into the vacuum in recent years, particularly since the Oct. 7, 2023,
Hamas militant attack that triggered the ongoing war in Gaza. Palestinian health
officials say 811 Palestinians have been killed since then in the West Bank,
most by Israeli raids into Palestinian cities and towns. Israel says most of the
dead have been militants. On Saturday, Palestinian security forces said they had
begun the operation in the Jenin refugee camp, a longtime militant stronghold.
The operation was continuing Monday, with AP reporters hearing heavy gunfire and
spotting at least two Palestinian armored vehicles roaming the outskirts of the
camp. The U.N. humanitarian office said that security forces took over part of a
hospital in Jenin, using it as a base and shooting from inside. Forces detained
at least eight men, pulling one out of the hospital on a stretcher, the U.N.
said.
The main U.N. agency for Palestinians, UNRWA, suspended its services, including
schooling. The militant groups Islamic Jihad and Hamas operate freely across
Jenin, and its streets are regularly lined with posters depicting slain fighters
as martyrs to the Palestinian struggle. Young men carrying walkie-talkies patrol
the alleys. Israel says the militant groups are part of the Iranian “axis of
resistance.” Both groups receive funding and other support from Iran, but they
are deeply rooted in Palestinian society. The security forces are “operating
according to a clear political vision” from Palestinian leadership “on the
importance of imposing order, establishing the rule of law, restoring civil
peace and societal security,” spokesman Brig. Gen. Anwar Rajab said. The troops
were focused on “eradicating” Iran-backed groups that were trying to incite
“chaos and anarchy,” he added. Palestinian security forces have reported the
deaths of two men in the crackdown: a 19-year-old civilian, Rabhi Shalabi, shot
riding a motorcycle, and an Islamic Jihad militant, Yazi Jaayseh. Security
forces, which initially denied killing Shalabi before admitting it in a
statement Friday, have not said why they targeted the young man. His 15-year-old
cousin, who was also on the motorcycle, was shot in the head and wounded. U.N.
officials, citing local video footage, have said the pair were unarmed and
delivering food from a family restaurant when they were shot, and that Shalabi
raised both in the air hands before he was killed. It was not immediately clear
why the Palestinian Authority decided to launch the crackdown now. Such actions
are unpopular with the Palestinian public, where many accuse the Palestinian
security forces of collaborating with Israel. The Israeli military said it was
not involved in the operation and did not comment further. Hamas senior official
Mahmoud Mardawi slammed the Palestinian Authority operating in Jenin as an
“attempt to end the resistance.” In comments released by Hamas late Monday, he
urged the Palestinian Authority to immediately stop its “unpatriotic behavior
that serves the occupation.”The U.S. has sought to strengthen the Palestinian
Authority, hoping it will help run the Gaza Strip after the war. White House
officials declined to comment publicly on their position on the Jenin operation.
Officials at the U.S. National Security Council also declined to comment.
Overall, since the start of the war, the U.N. says that at least seven
Palestinians have been killed by Palestinian security forces, and at least 24
Israelis have also been killed by Palestinian attackers in the West Bank.
Majdi Mohammed And Aref Tufaha, The Associated Press
US military kills
12 ISIS terrorists in Syria in precision strikes
Jerusalem Post/December 16/2024
“CENTCOM, working with allies and partners in the region, will not allow ISIS to
reconstitute and take advantage of the current situation in Syria,” said Gen.
Michael Erik Kurilla. The US army killed 12 ISIS terrorists in Syria via
precision strikes, the US Central Command (CENTCOM) reported on Monday evening.
The strikes against ISIS leaders, operatives, and camps were carried out as part
of ongoing attempts to "disrupt, degrade, and defeat ISIS, preventing the
terrorist group from conducting external operations and to ensure that ISIS does
not seek opportunities to reconstitute in central Syria."The strikes, which
occurred on Monday, took place in former Regime and Russian-controlled areas,
which CENTCOM said ensured pressure continues to be maintained on ISIS.
CENTCOM added that there were no civilian casualties.
Preventing ISIS resurgence
“CENTCOM, working with allies and partners in the region, will not allow ISIS to
reconstitute and take advantage of the current situation in Syria,” said Gen.
Michael Erik Kurilla. General Kurilla visited US military commanders and
soldiers on Monday, as well as Syrian Democratic Forces, at various military
bases in Syria last week. He was briefed on what measures are being taken to
prevent ISIS from exploiting the current situation.
Two charged in
connection with Iran drone strike that killed 3 US troops in the Middle East
Steve Leblanc, Eric Tucker And Tara Copp/BOSTON (AP)/December 16, 2024
Two men, including a dual Iranian American citizen, have been arrested on
charges that they exported sensitive technology to Iran that was used in a drone
attack in Jordan that killed three American troops early this year and injured
dozens of other service members, the Justice Department said Monday.
The criminal case in federal court in Massachusetts charges the men, identified
as Mahdi Mohammad Sadeghi and Mohammad Abedininajafabadi, with export control
violations. U.S. officials blamed the January attack on the Islamic Resistance
in Iraq, an umbrella group of Iran-backed militias that includes Kataib
Hezbollah. Three Georgia soldiers — Sgt. William Jerome Rivers of Carrollton,
Sgt. Breonna Moffett of Savannah and Sgt. Kennedy Sanders of Waycross — were
killed in the Jan. 28 drone attack on a U.S. outpost in northeastern Jordan
called Tower 22.
In the attack, the one-way attack drone may have been mistaken for a U.S. drone
that was expected to return back to the logistics base about the same time and
was not shot down. Instead, it crashed into living quarters, killing the three
soldiers and injuring more than 40. Tower 22 held about 350 U.S. military
personnel at the time. It is strategically located between Jordan and Syria,
only 10 kilometers (6 miles) from the Iraqi border, and in the months just after
Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack on Israel, and Israel’s blistering response in Gaza,
Iranian-backed militias intensified their attacks on U.S. military locations in
the region. Following the attack, the U.S. launched a huge counterstrike against
85 sites in Iraq and Syria used by Iran's Revolutionary Guard and Iranian-backed
militia and bolstered Tower 22’s defenses.
The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources
on December
16-17/2024
Iran's Very Bad Year
Kay Armin Serjoie/Time/December 16,
2024
Every dramatic development in the Middle East this year has left Iran weaker. In
2024, the Islamic Republic lost in Gaza, in Lebanon, and, most spectacularly, in
the Syrian Arab Republic, the linchpin of the “Shiite Crescent” collapsing so
quickly this month that Tehran had to scramble to evacuate its officers of the
Revolutionary Guards’ Qods Force. In a stroke, the demise of the Assad regime
halved the number of states that Iran counts as an ally, leaving only Venezuela,
a nation emptying itself of its people. The Axis of Resistance is down to rump
militias in Iraq and the Houthi tribe of Yemen, the poorest country in the
Middle East.
Inside Iran, though, things may be even worse. The economy is at its lowest
point since the 1979 Revolution that brought the theocracy to power. The
ministry of social welfare last year announced that 57 percent of Iranians are
experiencing some level of malnourishment. Thirty percent live below the poverty
line. The Iranian rial has fallen 46 percent in the past year, and is officially
the world’s least valuable currency, worth less than the Sierra Leonean Leone or
the Laotian Kip. As ordinary Iranians watch their savings vaporize on the pages
of bank statements, a deeply unsettled regime has decided this is a good time to
threaten them.
“If anyone inside Iran speaks in a way that translates to frightening people,
this is a crime and must be prosecuted,” Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said on
Wednesday. It was his first remarks since the fall of the Assads, who when they
fled to Moscow left behind a debt to Tehran of $30 billion and thousands of
lives. Yet what concerned the ayatollah–understandably enough–was the stability
of his own regime.
The devaluation of the Iranian rial means the heavily subsidized petrol prices,
now ranging from the equivalent of 7.5 to 15 U.S. cents per gallon, have become
untenable. Plans are being drawn up to increase the price in the new year. The
last time that happened, in 2019, the country was plunged into nationwide
protests that became known as Bloody November. The government shut down the
internet while its forces opened fire, making a solid death count difficult to
determine, but Amnesty International put the minimum number at 304.
Looking at the books, the regime may feel it has no choice. After decades of US
sanctions that have retarded the development of its petroleum sector, Iran—home
to the second largest natural gas reserves in the world—is facing gas shortages
that, in turn, are forcing the curtailment of electricity production. A country
that was until a few years ago exporting electricity to neighboring countries
has now been forced to resort to planned blackouts for its own populace.
The regime is also intent on testing the public in other ways. The parliament,
which consists mostly of hardline extremists, has ratified a draconian bill on
hijab, the headscarf and robes the Islamic Republic imposes on all women. Set to
go into effect within weeks, the new law is the regime’s reaction to the “Women,
Life, Freedom” protests ignited by the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini in
police custody in September, 2022 following her detention for not having an
adequate hijab.
The protests occurred in more than 200 cities and towns, lasted months and
presented the gravest internal threat to the regime since the 1980s. Iranian
security forces also responded to these protests with brutal force, killing more
than 500 people, according to human rights groups. As many as a thousand more
were dealt lifelong injuries such as blinding; tens of thousands were arrested.
Should the new hijab bill be implemented, the Islamic Republic might face a
repeat of the uprising that nearly brought about its undoing.
The state apparatus already appears vulnerable. The Islamic Republic has long
touted its ability to provide “security” in the world’s most volatile region.
Yet on the day of the inauguration of its current president in July, a guest of
the state, Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh, was killed by an explosive
that (presumably Israeli) saboteurs had secreted in a government guest house in
one of the most heavily fortified compounds in Tehran. The new president, Masoud
Pezeshkian, had been elected after his hardline predecessor, Ebrahim Raisi,
perished in a mysterious helicopter crash in May. The state has yet to offer an
explanation either as to why his chopper crashed on a routine flight or why it
took nearly a day to locate the crash site.
Meanwhile, Israel has struck Iran repeatedly this year through conventional
military means, targeting crucial missile production facilities and
anti-aircraft defenses—clearly prevailing in the tit-for-tat exchange of
unprecedented direct attacks on each nation’s soil. Iran’s missile assaults, by
contrast, caused no substantial damage or casualties. Israel’s latest attack, in
October, has gone unanswered, causing some stalwart defenders of the regime to
publicly question it for the first time, and speak of losing faith with it.
Khamenei, who has held the reins of power since 1989, is now 85 years old, and
rumored to be severely ill. A leaked voice file from the head of his medical
team giving him only until this winter to live and beyond that, "hoping for the
kindness of God and the prayers of the people" was vigorously denied as fake.
But Khamenei's appearance has visibly deteriorated in recent years. Once a
strong speaker, his voice is now raspy, and his sentences are short. His speech
Wednesday was not broadcast live on state TV as usual.
From a telegram channel called Bisimchi media (wireless operator media, context
is from the wireless operators of the Iran Iraq war who were prone to getting
killed quickly by snipers) In the right lower message a line at the end says:
it's a month since they've attacked your country and you haven't answered, if
this isn't passivity than what is? The message on the left is the attempt of the
main admin to explain away the message as a copy past mistake and reaffirm their
undying love and faith in the leader<span class="copyright">Courtesy the author;
Screenshot from Telegram</span>
From a telegram channel called Bisimchi media (wireless operator media, context
is from the wireless operators of the Iran Iraq war who were prone to getting
killed quickly by snipers) In the right lower message a line at the end says:
it's a month since they've attacked your country and you haven't answered, if
this isn't passivity than what is? The message on the left is the attempt of the
main admin to explain away the message as a copy past mistake and reaffirm their
undying love and faith in the leaderCourtesy the author; Screenshot from
TelegramMore
Whatever his health, Khamenei's age alone has made succession a major
preoccupation. This would be the second time the Islamic Republic has gone
through a succession. The last was in 1989, when the Iranian economy was in a
much better shape and it's citizens' less antagonized. What's more, there was no
hint of the disillusionment among regime stalwarts that we see today. For
instance, it was the audible grumbling about the loss of Syria among Iranians
that prompted the Supreme Leader’s warning about speech that “frightens people.”
But large sections of Iran’s society clearly are no longer afraid to speak up.
Hours after the Leader's speech, the singer Parastoo Ahmadi livestreamed a
concert on her YouTube account, from inside Iran. It was a first since the
Islamic Revolution, which bans women singing for men. Despite this ban, Ahmadi
sang in an evening gown, her hair flowing over her bare shoulders, to more than
two million views so far. She was arrested on Saturday, then released pending
trial.
Contact us at letters@time.com.
Syria’s Future and the Shifting Tectonics
Charles Elias Chartouni/This Is Beirut/December 16/2024
Syria’s political plight is at the crossroads between potential disintegration,
renewed civil instabilities and eventual reconciliation, which helps overcome
the bitter legacy of a long-haul civil war. The downfall of the Assad regime is
of good omen since it sets an end to the excruciating travails bequeathed by a
bloody dictatorship and its legacy of death camps, wanton violence and unleashed
savagery. Aside from the fact that it has demonstrated its disinclination
towards national reconciliation, political accommodation and normalization. This
regime was deliberately doomed and was unlikely to be considered as a partner in
any future peacemaking plans. It was a misplaced expectation to bet on its
willingness or ability to convert and pave the way for alternative courses. The
new military and political dynamic ushered in by the Israeli counteroffensive
strategy lies at the origin of this abrupt and transformative change. The
Islamists who took over are facing multiple challenges related to their
dependency towards Turkey and Qatar and their mutating political objectives,
their ability to manage the inter-Islamist rivalries, deal with the post-war
critical legacy, and tackle the thorny issues of civil concord and working
governance in a country with no moral and political compasses whatsoever after
one and a half decades of open-ended conflicts.
Their meteoric rise to power betrays the treacherous state of an unraveling
country and its inability to rebuild itself away from the successive political
patronages. The country’s de facto division unveils its fractured ethnopolitical
landscape and the absence of a working political dialogue to address the
protracted conflicts and their incidence on political stability and peace. The
Islamist takeover has taken place at a time when the regional military and
political dynamics were systematically overhauled after the defeat of the
Iranian power projections throughout the Middle East and the remodeling of the
geostrategic matrix actuated by the Israeli counteroffensive. The incremental
political voids and the emerging political dynamics they elicited are incipient
and call upon meticulous observation to identify their ongoing modulations.
The accommodating political statements of the HTS Islamist coalition reveal the
difficulties awaiting them down the road now that the Alawite dictatorship has
irreversibly withered away: the criminal legacy of the Islamic State is of no
help and by no means instructive. Their internal differences are to be tackled
first and foremost if they are to offer a stabilizing framework in a country
that badly needs it. The challenges of political stability defy their ability to
overcome their ideological mandates, stifling dependencies and readiness to
engage in the monumental assignments of political reconciliation, reformed
governance and international normalization.
They can never succeed in their undertaking unless they forswear their
ideological blinders and strategic ballasts and open themselves to
democratization and gradual liberalization. The very fact that Ahmad al-Shareh
committed himself to normalization, political inclusiveness and institution
building impels the launching of a consequential political dynamic. The rightly
suspicious international community needs tangible proof to overcome its
reservations and respond to the statement of intentions and its underlying
subtexts.
The Islamist coalition has to expand into a pluralistic and inclusive
partnership, regrouping the various aisles of the Syrian opposition, the
religious tapestry and the Syrian diaspora. It must work on building an
overarching national platform that prepares for a national convention to decide
over the future of Syria. Any ideological diktat can turn forthrightly into
nihilistic violence and outright Islamic totalitarianism. The accommodating
political posture has to display its readiness to re-engage the critical
questions of national reconciliation, transitional justice, reformed governance
and international normalization beyond the ideological templates of Islamism,
its ideological mandates and its imperial hubris if it is to deliver on
whichever political promises it has made.
The credibility test is a prequel to any further engagement with the regional
and international community. Otherwise, the Turkish and Qatari power politics,
rather than being instrumental in addressing the pitfalls of a hazardous
conflict, are likely to add to its destructive potential and restart the cycles
of violence. The Islamist coalition is quite aware of the incoming challenges
and knows how serious the questions of institutional engineering are, how dire
the issues of destroyed infrastructures, urban and rural settlements, massive
displacement and return of the displaced are, how much war poverty there is and
how important the assistance of the international community is in the post-war
reconstruction. By and large, if the Islamists are going to fall back on their
old playbook, Syria is invariably doomed and retreating behind the iron walls
erected by the late bloody dictatorship and its Islamist heirs.
They should avoid the temptation of an Islamic dictatorship, learn the hard
lessons of their failed dystopia and reconsider their political priorities on
the basis of a pragmatic agenda mandated by the tragic conditions bequeathed by
the criminal dictatorship and its nemeses, the destructive war and the
unresolved questions of civil peace and systemic reforms. HTS has to realize
that the cycles of violence have to end by giving up on its ideological
delusions and turning away from their imperial fallacies. Rebuilding a country
around working political and public policy choices is the shortest road to a
normalized life earnestly sought by Syrians who have no other aspiration but to
recover peace and rebuild their country and life conditions.
Turkey's Syrian Jihadists Take Over Syria: Kurds, Half a
Million Christians Under Intolerable Threat
Uzay Bulut/Gatestone Institute/December 16, 2024
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2024/12/138054/
A former branch of Al Qaeda, in 2018, HTS [Hayat Tahrir al-Sham] was officially
designated a terrorist organization by the US government. HTS, which cooperates
with the Turkish military and Turkish-backed groups in Syria, is committed to
establishing an Islamist state across Syria, at least for a start.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Al-Jolani are now making all sorts of
human-rightsy promises that they know the West likes to hear – just as Ayatollah
Ruhollah Khomeini did before he took over Iran, and as the Taliban did before
they quickly demolished 20 years of US human rights progress in Afghanistan.
Just as Iran is the Shiite "head of the octopus" whose tentacles consist of
Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis and other assorted militias, so Erdogan is the
Sunni "head of the octopus" in Syria. While everyone is busy staring at rival
terrorist groups in Syria, it is crucial not to forget for a minute the country
backing them: Turkey.
Erdogan's dream has always been "the liberation of Jerusalem".... A Sunni jihadi
Syria provides a conveniently straight path to fulfill that long-term dream.
In Syria today, roughly half a million Christians and 2.5 million Kurds face a
future of persecution and abuse at the hands of jihadist terrorists.
The Assad family's rule of Syria, which lasted more than 50 years, collapsed on
December 8. Jihadist forces took control of Damascus after President Bashar al-Assad
escaped to a luxurious life in Moscow. Today, roughly half a million Christians
and 2.5 million Kurds in Syria face a future of persecution and abuse at the
hands of jihadist terrorists.
The offensive launched by the jihadists of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), formerly
the Syrian branch of al-Qaeda, began on November 27. These terrorists, backed by
Turkey, first captured Aleppo and a string of other towns and cities in a matter
of days, before converging on Damascus.
Since 2017, HTS has been the dominant Islamist militia in Syria. A former branch
of Al Qaeda, in 2018, HTS was officially designated a terrorist organization by
the US government. The group's name, Hayat Tahrir al Sham, means "Organization
for the Liberation of the Levant," meaning much of the Middle East, including
Israel, Lebanon and Jordan. Since 2019, HTS, working with Turkey, has controlled
northern Idlib through the so-called "Syrian Salvation Government" (SSG). Now,
as Turkey and the HTS plan to "reshape Syria," both Kurds and Christians find
themselves under siege.
HTS, which cooperates with the Turkish military and Turkish-backed groups in
Syria, is committed to establishing an Islamist state across Syria, at least for
a start. The founder and current leader of HTS is Ahmed Hussein Al-Shara, better
known as Abu Mohammed Al-Jolani, Before founding HTS, Jolani led Jabhat Al-Nusra,
a Syrian al Qaeda affiliate.
In a 2019 report on terrorism by the US State Department, HTS/Al-Nusrah Front is
described as one of "the world's most active and dangerous terrorist groups".
In 2022, the United States Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF)
held a hearing on religious freedom in Syria, and stated:
"The al-Qaeda offshoot Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) continues to brutalize and
displace religious minority communities in the northwestern region of Idlib, and
the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) has increased its presence in eastern
Syria, waging almost daily attacks and destabilizing the region for religious
minorities. Opposition groups leverage their Turkish financing and military
support to wage campaigns of religious and ethnic cleansing in Afrin."
During the jihadi offensive that began last month, HTS was supported on the
northern front by the Syrian National Army (SNA), a coalition of a dozen
Islamist armed groups largely financed, equipped and trained by Turkey.
According to a 2022 report by the US State Department, at the time, most Syrian
Christians lived in and around Damascus, Aleppo, Homs, Hama, Latakia and Hasakah.
All these areas except for Hasakah (the majority of which is currently under
Kurdish control) fell to Turkish-backed jihadists beginning on November 27.
According to the human rights organization Open Doors, there are around 579,000
Christians in Syria. Many of them fled cities and villages seized by jihadists,
to take refuge in the formerly government-controlled Wadi al-Nasara ("Valley of
Christians"). With the collapse of the Assad regime, the Valley has fallen to
jihadists, and the lives of those Christians are in danger.
On December 7, HTS reportedly warned the Christian population of the Valley of
the Christians to "not stand with the regime." The news website Orthodox
Christianity reported on December 9:
"Syrian Christians are sure to face escalating hardships and persecution as the
capital city of Damascus was taken by Islamist rebels...
"His Eminence Metropolitan Ephraim of Aleppo of the Antiochian Orthodox Church
issued a statement on November 30, urging his flock to remain in peace and
prayer and promising to remain with his flock to the end.
"Met. Ephraim was enthroned as the ruling hierarch of Aleppo in December 2021.
His predecessor, His Eminence Metropolitan Boulos (Paul), was captured by
Islamist rebels in April 2013 and never heard from again.
"Fr. Bassam Nasif, professor at Balamand University and close associate of Met.
Ephraim, tells the Orthodoxia News Agency that things are tragic for Aleppo and
especially for the Orthodox Christians who are still there and refuse to leave
the area, their homes, and their churches.
"Every hour that passes, we don't know what will happen and who will survive
this ordeal. Everyone left Aleppo, both Syrians and Armenians—only our
Metropolitan Ephraim of Aleppo and Alexandretta remained, along with two or
three priests who are with him in the Metropolis.
"'Please pray for them because we don't know if we'll see them again. We all
remember that 11 years ago, Metropolitan Paul of Aleppo, his predecessor (the
blood brother of the current Patriarch of Antioch John) was kidnapped by
Islamists and has been missing since then. We fear the same could happen to the
current Metropolitan.
"'Aleppo is currently under occupation. All municipal employees of organizations
and services left their jobs, and rebels took their positions. They took down
the Syrian flag from public buildings and raised their own.'"
According to reports coming from Syria, jihadists began abusing Christians in
the towns and villages the minute they took over. The X account
"Greco-Levantines Worldwide" reported on December 10:
"Father Michel Nouman, one of the most well-known priests in Homs, shared a
troubling incident on Facebook. He recounted how a group of Muslims attacked
Christian farmers in a Christian village. The Christians were abused, beaten,
and accused of being infidels [kafirs]. This is what we are facing as Christians
right now in Syria."
The same account further reported on December 11:
"HTS factions desecrated the Hagia Sophia Greek Orthodox Church in Al-Suqaylabiyah,
in Hama province's countryside, vandalizing and destroying its contents, as
shown in the video."
If an international diplomatic intervention to protect Christians does not take
place, the fate awaiting them can be seen in how Islamic jihadists treated them
when they took control of Syrian towns and villages at the beginning of the
civil war in 2011. In jihadi-held territories in Syria, as noted in a January
2024 Open Doors report:
"Due to their public visibility, the leaders of historical church communities
are particularly targeted for attacks or kidnapping in areas where Islamic
militants are active... In areas controlled by radical Islamic groups, most of
the church buildings belonging to the historical church communities have either
been demolished or used as Islamic centers. Public expressions of Christian
faith are prohibited, and church buildings or monasteries cannot be repaired or
restored, regardless of whether the damage was collateral or intentional.
"Fear among Christians has been at a high level over the last years,
particularly caused by the threats, intimidation and kidnappings carried out by
radical Islamic groups such as the al-Qaeda affiliated Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS),
the Ansar Brigade and the Al-Farouq battalions. Particularly in the northeast, a
number of factors (combined with the Turkish invasion of northern Syria) have
dealt a blow to Christian confidence in Deir ez Zaur, Al-Hasakah and Qamishli as
well as the predominantly Christian villages on the border with Turkey: For
instance, the reactivation of ISIS sleeper cells, church bombings, the murder of
an Armenian priest together with his father in November 2019 and the 2022 attack
on a prison in Hasaka in which several IS militants broke out. The escalation of
Turkish aggression and the potential for a large-scale invasion of the border
areas make Christian communities feel extremely threatened since the areas are
controlled by radical Islamic militias and Turkish authorities...
"The strict Islamic law imposed by militants in [the Turkish occupied city of]
Afrin hinders the return of Christians, while the accelerated return of refugees
and IDPs [internally displaced persons] from Lebanon could force Christians to
return to areas under the control of Islamic militants where they are
vulnerable...
"Men in particular face the threat of abduction and killing, particularly if
they are in a position of church leadership. Women also risk abduction, as well
as the threat of sexual harassment and rape."
The severe persecution of Christians in Syria has led to the community's
population collapse. About two-thirds of Syria's Christian population has fled
the country since the start of its brutal civil war in 2011.
In 2014, Islamic State (ISIS) set up its caliphate covering large parts of Syria
and Iraq, and a strict version of Sharia law was implemented. The ISIS-caliphate
was finally eliminated due to intervention by the West and Russia in 2019.
During the ISIS period, Syria's Christians were severely persecuted, even
massacred, leading to a major exodus of the community from the country.
Since then, Turkish military campaigns have led to the occupation of large
swaths of Syrian territory by Turkey-backed jihadist forces such as HTS. Some of
Turkey's military campaigns targeting Kurds in Syria include:
From August 2016 to March 2017, Turkish troops and Turkish-backed, Islamist
"Free Syrian Army" (FSA) seized the region between Afrin and Manbij districts,
pushing US-allied Kurdish militia east of the Euphrates River during Turkey's
"Operation Euphrates Shield".
In 2017, HTS jihadists took control of the town of Idlib, which they have since
occupied and exploited together with Turkish forces.
In 2018, Turkey carried out another military invasion against Syria, which it
called "Operation Olive Branch." Around 25,000 FSA fighters joined Turkish
forces to capture towns and villages controlled by the Kurds, seizing the Afrin
region of northwest Syria.
Throughout 2019, fighting intensified in Syria. During Turkey's "Operation Peace
Spring" military campaign, Turkey and its jihadist allies invaded northern
Syria, created a so-called "safe zone" along the Syrian-Turkish border, where it
uses Islamic fighters to control predominantly Kurdish and Christian areas.
In 2020, Turkey launched "Operation Spring Shield," to counter an offensive by
the Syrian government in Idlib.
According to many reports, those jihadists allied with Turkey targeted religious
and ethnic minorities, including Christians, in the northern region and along
the border. A June 2020 USCIRF hearing entitled "Safeguarding Religious Freedom
in Northeast Syria," noted:
"Turkish armed forces attacked, murdered, kidnapped, raped and detained Kurds
and other ethnic and religious minorities, including Christians and Yezidis, and
destroyed their religious sites. They also moved internally displaced Syrians (IDPs)
- predominantly Sunni Arabs - from other parts of Syria to the homes of minority
refugees in the north. This is causing a considerable demographic change which
will prevent Christians and other minorities returning to their villages. In
Afrin, Turkish-backed troops are reported to be targeting Kurdish Christians."
Hundreds of thousands of Christians have been displaced during Syria's
13-year-long civil war, and those who remain in their homes under jihadist rule
are often persecuted, harassed, or killed. According to Open Doors:
"According to in-country sources, Christians in the area occupied by Turkish
armed forces feel that there is no future for Christian communities there
because of Turkish aggression as well as the impact of Shiite militias. Examples
include the water cuts and steady bombing by Turkey and its proxies in areas
with significant Christian populations e.g., Al Hasakah and Khabour Valley,
among others.
"The lack of water and unsanitary conditions led to outbreaks of dysentery,
typhoid and other contagious diseases. Meanwhile, Turkey's Islamic allies built
dams in areas under their control, further reducing the flow of water from the
Euphrates. As a result, millions of people are existentially threatened by the
resulting drought, which seriously affects agricultural production, drinking
water supply and the health of the population. These developments and the role
of Shia militias (including kidnappings) continue to have a negative impact on
the Christian community and lead to demographic changes in Christian villages
and neighborhoods...
"The Turkish invasion of northeast Syria has raised concerns among Christian
leaders, as elements within Turkey's forces and their allies pursue Islamist
agendas hostile to non-Sunni communities. Land theft, population shifts, and the
spread of radical Islamic ideas pose significant challenges for Christians,
while Iranian militias actively recruit and spread Shia ideology. According to
Christians in the country, there has been an increase in the number of radical
Islamic madrassas, leading to a wider spread of radical Islamic ideas and
discrimination against religious minorities. The presence of armed mercenary
groups and the increasing military forces of Iran and Turkey have heightened
tensions and increased the risk of attacks against Christians. The future
remains uncertain, and there are concerns about the potential for further
persecution and a further decline of the Christian population in Syria."
Syrian Christians are today a persecuted minority, but the Church has been
present in Syria since the time of the New Testament, where the conversion of
Saul/Paul is mentioned on the road to Damascus (see Chapter 9 of the Book of
Acts). The New Testament confirms that the Syrian cities of Damascus and Antioch
had Christian communities. The Christian faith spread fast and, at the Council
of Nicaea in 325 AD, 22 Syrian bishops were present.
In the 7th century AD, when Islam invaded and captured Syria, Christianity was
the majority religion in Syria. Caliph Omar dismissed Christian officials, and
his successor obliged all Christians to wear distinctive clothes. By the 9th
century, Islam was gaining the upper hand, many churches had become mosques and,
by about 900 AD, approximately half the Syrian population was Muslim. In 1124,
the Aleppo cathedral was made into a mosque. Throughout the centuries, the
Christian church in Syria has gone through – and is still going through –
considerable levels of discrimination, intolerance and attacks.
Syria also holds a profound place in Greek history, dating back to the conquests
of Alexander the Great in the 4th century BCE. The vast majority of Christians
in Syria are of Greek ancestry. "The Greco-Syrian Nation," a digital platform
that serves as an online voice for the Syro-Greek Christians, posted a press
release titled "Post-Ba'athist Syria | What do we do now?" In it, they wrote:
"The Rum [Greek] Orthodox and Melkite-Rum Catholic Christians of Syria represent
a distinct ethnicity with a rich cultural heritage that deserves recognition and
representation in any future political landscape of our beloved Levant...
"It is our hope that a post-Ba'athist Syria will be secular and democratic, a
state that embraces the diversity of its people and recognizes its ethnic and
religious pluralism. Therefore, we will continue to advocate for the right of
Syrian Rum, and all Levantine Rum, to continue to exist in our ancestral lands
and strive for the recognition of our ethnic Rum identity, as well as our right
to revive our ancestral Greek language throughout the Levant."
Hadeel Oueis, editor-in-chief of Jusoor News and a Syrian-American Christian,
told Gatestone:
"Christians in Syria are cautiously anticipating the unknown future amid the
chaos and hatred left behind by the Assad regime. The shocking revelations of
crimes against tens of thousands of civilian detainees have left the entire
Syrian population, including Christians, in despair. Yet, their greatest concern
remains whether a new government will safeguard their cultural, social, and
religious freedoms. In this critical juncture, Syria's Christians need
diplomatic and political support from Europe to ensure they have a seat at the
table in shaping Syria's future, along with autonomy and recognition to protect
their unique identity."
This millennia-old Christian community in Syria might come to an end due to the
ongoing jihadist takeover of the country. Syrian Christians need immediate
international support to protect themselves from Islamic terrorists. Eiad Herera,
Spokesman of the Antiochian Greek Organization "A.G.O.", told Gatestone:
"Christians in Syria, at this point, want equality and not to be treated as
second-class citizens. Therefore, the ideal vision for state-building is the
explicit declaration and pursuit of a civil, democratic, and secular state.
"The role of the United Nations and major powers is essential and pivotal in
ensuring the establishment of this state, which must inherently protect all
citizens and minorities.
"At this point, failure to build such a state means the region and the world
will face significant security challenges, along with an increasing threat to
the status and existence of minorities, particularly Christians, who are living
in constant and profound anxiety."
Both President-elect Donald J. Trump and Vice President-elect J.D. Vance
recently wrote regarding Syria: "This is not our fight." However, to prevent
further abuses, massacres, or forced displacements of Christians and Kurds, and
to stop the spread of jihadism in the region, the US should get involved to
protect Kurds and Christians there and to make sure that that Syria will not
become Turkey's "Afghanistan."
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Al-Jolani are now making all sorts of
human-rightsy promises that they know the West likes to hear – just as Ayatollah
Ruhollah Khomeini did before he took over Iran, and as the Taliban did before
they quickly demolished 20 years of US human rights progress in Afghanistan.
Just as Iran is the Shiite "head of the octopus" whose tentacles consist of
Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis and other assorted militias, so Erdogan is the
Sunni "head of the octopus" in Syria. While everyone is busy staring at rival
terrorist groups in Syria, it is crucial not to forget for a minute the country
backing them: Turkey.
Erdogan's dream has always been the "liberation of Jerusalem":
"Conquest is Mecca, conquest is Saladin, it's to hoist the Islamic flag over
Jerusalem again; conquest is the heritage of Mehmed II and conquest means
forcing Turkey back on its feet."
A jihadi Syria provides a conveniently straight path to fulfill Erdogan's
long-term dream.
*Uzay Bulut, a Turkish journalist, is a Distinguished Senior Fellow at Gatestone
Institute.
© 2024 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
Was the West or Islam ‘Built on Blood, Tears, Massacres, and Exploitation’?
Raymond Ibrahim/The Stream/December 16, 2024
The world was just treated to a bit of outlandish projection by Turkey’s
president and self-styled sultan, Recep Tayyip Erdogan. During a recent council
held in Ankara, he said, “The West’s progress, built on blood, tears, massacres,
and exploitation, has temporarily overtaken the human-centered civilization of
the East.”To anyone even vaguely familiar with the history of Western/Muslim
interaction, Erdogan’s assertion is the perfect antithesis of reality. Nothing
is “built on blood, tears, massacres, and exploitation” more than Islam’s
“progress.”
Islam, which was born in the seventh century in the Arabian Peninsula, spread to
and conquered by the sword what is today called the “Muslim world.” Most of the
lands it conquered, including the entire Middle East and North Africa, were
previously Christian. Both Muslim and non-Muslim sources make unequivocally
clear that Islam’s conquests were bloody, savage, and sadistic. Over the
centuries, many millions of non-Muslims were slaughtered or enslaved; thousands
of churches and non-Muslim temples were destroyed or turned into mosques.
One need only look to the nation that Erdogan rules over — Turkey (Asia Minor) —
for confirmation. Once an ancient bastion of Christianity (and recipient of many
of St. Paul’s epistles), Erdogan’s Turkic ancestors began conquering it in the
eleventh century AD.
Turks Take Armenia
Thus, in 1019, “the first appearance of the bloodthirsty beasts … the savage
nation of Turks entered Armenia … and mercilessly slaughtered the Christian
faithful with the sword,” writes Matthew of Edessa (d.1144). In 1049, the Turks
reached the unwalled city of Arzden and “put the whole town to the sword,
causing severe slaughter, as many as one hundred and fifty thousand persons.”
Another Greek eyewitness, Aristakes, notes that “without mercy, they [Turks]
incinerated those who had hidden themselves in houses and churches.” Eight
hundred oxen and 40 camels were required to cart out the vast plunder, mostly
taken from Arzden’s churches — all of which were torched. During the Turkish
siege of Sebastia (modern-day Sivas) in 1060, 600 churches were destroyed and
“many [more] maidens, brides, and ladies were led into captivity.” Another raid
on Armenian territory saw “many and innumerable people who were burned [to
death].”Between 1064 and 1065, Sultan Muhammad bin Dawud Chaghri — known to
posterity as Alp Arslan, one of Erdogan’s personal heroes — besieged Ani, the
capital of Armenia. Once inside, the Turks — reportedly armed with two knives in
each hand and an extra in their mouths — “began to mercilessly slaughter the
inhabitants of the entire city … and piling up their bodies one on top of the
other…. Innumerable and countless boys with bright faces and pretty girls were
carried off together with their mothers.”
Not only do several Christian sources document the sack of Armenia’s capital
(one contemporary succinctly notes that Muhammad “rendered Ani a desert by
massacres and fire”), but so do Muslim sources, often in apocalyptic terms: “I
wanted to enter the city and see it with my own eyes,” one Arab explained. “I
tried to find a street without having to walk over the corpses. But that was
impossible.”
Goal: Destroy Christianity
Nor was there much doubt concerning what fueled the Muslim Turks’ animus: “This
nation of infidels comes against us because of our Christian faith and they are
intent on destroying the ordinances of the worshippers of the cross and on
exterminating the Christian faithful,” one David, head of an Armenian region,
explained to his countrymen. Therefore, “it is fitting and right for all the
faithful to go forth with their swords and to die for the Christian faith.” Many
were of the same mind; the sources tell of monks and priests, fathers, wives,
and children, all shabbily armed but zealous to protect their way of life,
coming out to face the invaders — to no avail. As the Turks moved further
westward into Asia Minor, they began to do the same to the Greeks of the Eastern
Roman (or “Byzantine”) Empire. “Far and wide they [Turks] ravaged cities and
castles together with their settlements,” wrote a Frankish eyewitness. “Churches
were razed down to the ground. Of the clergymen and monks whom they captured,
some were slaughtered while others were with unspeakable wickedness given up,
priests and all, to their dire dominion, and nuns — alas for the sorrow of it! —
were subjected to their lusts.”
Emperor Alexios I Komnenos elaborated in a letter to Count Robert of Flanders:
The holy places are desecrated and destroyed in countless ways. … Noble matrons
and their daughters, robbed of everything, are violated one after another, like
animals. Some [of their attackers] shamelessly place virgins in front of their
own mothers and force them to sing wicked and obscene songs until they have
finished having their ways with them … men of every age and description, boys,
youths, old men, nobles, peasants and what is worse still and yet more
distressing, clerics and monks and woe of unprecedented woes, even bishops are
defiled with the sin of sodomy [meaning they were raped].
Don’t Know Much About History
Indeed, there is no dearth of contemporary writings documenting the atrocities
Eastern Christians suffered as the Turks ushered in Islam to Asia Minor. Whether
an anonymous Georgian chronicler tells of how “holy churches served as stables
for their horses,” the “priests were immolated during the Holy Communion
itself,” the “virgins defiled, the youths circumcised, and the infants taken
away,” or whether the princess at Constantinople tells of how “cities were
obliterated, lands were plundered, and the whole of Rhomaioi [Anatolia] was
stained with Christian blood” — it was the same scandalous tale of woe.
Yet here is Erdogan, the heir of the Turks who committed these atrocities,
complaining that “the West’s progress, built on blood, tears, massacres, and
exploitation, has temporarily overtaken the human-centered civilization of the
East.”
How can one ever reason with such topsy-turvy mentalities?
https://www.raymondibrahim.com/2024/12/16/was-the-west-or-islam-built-on-blood-tears-massacres-and-exploitation/
Christians in Syria mark country's
transformation with tears as UN envoy urges an end to sanctions
Abby Sewell/DAMASCUS, Syria (AP) /December 16/2024
In churches across long-stifled Syria, Christians marked the first Sunday
services since the collapse of Bashar Assad 's government in an air of
transformation. Some were in tears. Others clasped their hands in prayer.
“They are promising us that government will be formed soon and, God willing,
things will become better because we got rid of the tyrant,” said one worshiper,
Jihad Raffoul, as the small Christian population hoped that new messages of
inclusion would ring true. “Today, our prayers are for a new page in Syria’s
future,” said another, Suzan Barakat. To help those efforts, the U.N. envoy for
Syria, Geir Pedersen, called for a quick end to Western sanctions as the rebel
alliance that ousted Assad and sent him into exile in Russia a week ago
considers the way forward. Syria has been under deeply isolating sanctions by
the United States, the European Union and others for years as a result of
Assad’s brutal response to what began as peaceful anti-government protests in
2011 and spiraled into civil war.
In another sign of yearning for normalcy, schools in Damascus reopened for the
first time since Assad’s ouster. At the Nahla Zaidan school in the Mezzah
neighborhood, teachers hoisted the three-starred revolutionary flag.
“God willing, there will be more development, more security and more
construction in this beloved country,” said school director Maysoun Al-Ali.
But other challenges complicate rebuilding. The new leadership has not laid out
a clear vision of how the country will be governed, and the main group behind
the offensive remains designated as a terrorist organization by the U.S., which
nevertheless has begun making direct contact. Officials in Washington have
indicated that the Biden administration is considering removing the terror
designation from the group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, which was once an al-Qaida
affiliate.
The interim government is set to rule until March. Arab foreign ministers have
called for U.N.-supervised elections based on a new constitution.
“We need to get the political process underway that is inclusive of all
Syrians,” Pedersen said. He also called for justice and accountability for
crimes committed during the war, as some families continued to search for the
tens of thousands of people that Assad's government placed in prisons and
detention facilities.
An emergency meeting this weekend with foreign ministers from the U.S., Arab
League and Turkey and top officials from the European Union and U.N. agreed the
new government in Syria should prevent terror groups — like remnants of the
Islamic State group — from taking hold and secure and destroy any remaining
Assad-era chemical weapons. The meeting also urged all parties to cease
hostilities in Syria.
Israel says ‘no interest in conflict with Syria'
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a video statement released
Sunday that “we have no interest in conflict with Syria" and Israel’s policy
will follow "the emerging reality on the ground." He described Israeli military
actions in the past week, including hundreds of airstrikes, as aimed at
thwarting potential threats. Israel also has sent in ground troops, calling the
incursion temporary but signaling the presence is open-ended. For his part, HTS
leader Ahmad al-Sharaa has said they don’t intend to enter any conflict "because
there is general exhaustion in Syria.”
Israel’s government also approved Netanyahu’s plan to encourage population
growth in the Golan Heights, which Qatar quickly called “a new episode in a
series of Israeli aggressions on Syrian territories and a blatant violation of
international law.”
Israel captured the Golan Heights in the 1967 Mideast war and annexed it, though
the international community except for the U.S. regards it as occupied. Israeli
figures show the remote territory is home to about 50,000 people, about half of
them Jewish Israelis and the other half Arab Druze, many of whom still consider
themselves Syrians.
‘More respect’ for Syria's minority groups
Syria's new leaders also have been urged to respect the rights of minorities and
women. Many Syrian Christians, who made up 10% of the population before Syria’s
civil war, either fled the country or supported Assad out of fear of Islamist
insurgents. Last Sunday's church services were canceled.
“We were scared of the events taking place,” said Ibrahim Shahin, a Catholic
church supervisor. But this Sunday, doors reopened and bells rang out.
“Now we see that for the minorities, on the contrary, they are showing us more
respect, and they are taking care of us,” said Agop Bardakijian, a Christian
resident of Aleppo at a bustling cafe. Children posed for photos in front of
Christmas trees.
Residents had been warned of slaughter as the rebels closed in, but nothing like
that has happened, said another Aleppo resident who gave his name as Raed,
adding, “The revolution should have happened long ago.”
There were some signs of disorder. A rebel force was deployed to a village in
southeastern Damascus to stop looters who swarmed a residential complex housing
former military personnel and set apartments on fire. The rebels fired at the
crowd to drive them away and detained about a dozen people. Looting in the
capital has been limited.
Associated Press writers Abdulrahman Shaheen and Sally Abou AlJoud in Damascus,
Syria; Omar Sandiki in Husseiniyeh, Syria; and Natalie Melzer in Nahariya,
Israel, contributed to this report.s
Sharaa’s Arrival and the Cups of Poison
Ghassan Charbel/Asharq Al-Awsat/December 16/2024
Rarely does local, regional and international attention shift to one man. This
only happens at major turning points. It is no simple feat for a man in his 40s
to arrive at the Umayyad Mosque square in Damascus to end over half a century of
the Assad family’s rule in Syria. The Syrian Baath was ousted by Syrian hands.
The development may have consequences that overshadow that of the overthrow of
Saddam Hussein during the US invasion of Iraq.
The scene was monumental or terrible. Ahmad al-Sharaa at the Umayyad square and
Bashar al-Assad beginning his exile in Russia. What makes this even more
fascinating is that Sharaa is not some stranger. The world knew him before as
Abu Mohammed al-Golani. He was a wanted man, and many followed his journey with
Abu Mosab al-Zarqawi and Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi before he broke off from them.
Al-Qaeda, ISIS and al-Nusra Front were the groups making headlines during that
time before he settled on Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.
The Syrians, people of the region and the world have the right to know what his
plans are. What does Sharaa want? Does his rebranding reflect an actual change
in his behavior and thinking? What kind of Syria does he want? Will he be able
to run the factions that carried him to Damascus and labeled him the “strongman”
in Syria until another titles is bestowed upon him?
Will he be able to rein in his comrades who are seeking war here and there? Has
the HTS really changed during all those years in Idlib? Is it ready to reconcile
with the reality of Syria’s demographic fabric, regional balances and
international conditions? Some believe that Syria can live with the new version
of Ahmad al-Sharaa, but it will not be able to live under what Abu Mohammed al-Golani
represented.
Questions. Questions. Questions. Are the conditions available for the
establishment of a Syria that is built on institutions, national loyalties, the
rule of law and justice away from revenge and settling of scores? What about the
Sunnis, Alawites, Druze and Christians? What about the Arabs and Kurds? What
about human and women’s rights, personal freedoms and curricula?
A united Syria must focus on combating poverty and catching up with development
and progress. A Syria that lives within its borders without any delusions about
an aggressive regional role and exporting a model that none of its neighbors
want. What about Syria’s relations with its Arab fold, Iran and Türkiye? What
about its position from Israel? Sharaa had made assurances, but they need
clearer statements and firmer assertions.
Sharaa’s appearance at the Umayyad square completed the image of the earthquake:
Syria without Assad, without Iran and without Hezbollah. The Axis of Resistance
was forced into retirement - at least for now. The Tehran-Beirut route, which
Qassem Soleimani had shed blood and spent billions to pave, has been firmly
severed. Assad’s toppling returned Hezbollah to the Lebanese map and its leader
is acknowledging that supply routes, which were vital for its regional role,
have been cut. We are standing before a new Syria and a new Lebanon.
Sharaa’s appearance sent warning bells ringing in nearby capitals. Syria is
connected to the region and its future affects security, stability and balances.
Baghdad feared that the reversal of equations in Syria would open the appetite
of those keen on flipping the script in Iraq. Amman feared that Syria was headed
towards a thorny path, so the Aqaba meeting was held to demonstrate the Arab and
international desire to support an “inclusive political process” in Syria.
Lebanon, which is without a head of state, has again started to search for a
suitable presidential candidate. It wonders whether Hezbollah had learned the
“bitter lesson”, as described by Iranian Revolutionary Guards commander Hossein
Salami.
Sharaa’s appearance has a clear regional message. Türkiye has not hidden its
role in ousting Assad, who had rejected repeated calls to meet with Recep Tayyip
Erdogan. It was evident that the Turkish leader had played a decisive role in
persuading Russia and Iran to drink from the poisonous cup. Russia abandoned the
man whom it had intervened militarily to save. Iran relinquished the Syrian
passage to Lebanon. Iran had played the role of supreme leader during Assad’s
rule. Türkiye may assume this role during Sharaa’s rule. But we must wait and
see what guarantees and bandages Erdogan pledged to Russia and Iran in exchange
for their abandonment of Assad.
Israel acted with brazen hostility as soon as Assad was out of the picture. It
destroyed the last remaining capabilities of the Syrian army. It seems that it
is expecting the new Syria to be a source of dangers rather than stability. It
treated Sharaa’s appearance as another appearance by al-Golani.
Will Türkiye sponsor the building and armament of the new Syrian army? Will
Israel agree to Türkiye being so close to its border after it waged a long war
against Iran’s entrenchment there? Will Iran accept seeing the region swing in
Türkiye’s favor or is it banking on a setback in Syria that it can exploit to
worm its way back in?
The world did not shed a tear over the fall of the captagon republic. The extent
of the oppression, horrors and torture in Seydnaya prison left no room for
sorrow. The sight of the iron execution press outdid the imaginations of the
most prolific writers of horror stories. The new Syria will benefit from the
Syrian, Arab and international condemnation of the barbarity of the heads of
security agencies that were in power for so long. But the future is more
important than the past and the coming months will reveal whether Syria had
opened the window to the future.
Sharaa’s appearance was a poisonous cup for the regime and his allies. The
important thing now is to steer Syria clear of chaos, violence, terrorism and
civil strife.
Winning the War in Ukraine Has Become an
All-Encompassing Goal for Putin
Anatoly Kurmanaev/The New York Times
Military and political analysts said winning the war in Ukraine has become an
all-encompassing goal for Mr. Vladimir Putin. That outcome, they said, would
justify to the Russian leader the conflict’s tremendous human and economic
losses, safeguard Russia’s statehood and global stature and compensate for
strategic failures elsewhere, such as in Syria. “Putin’s bet on the war in
Ukraine is so high that a victory there would bring Russia a payout of historic
proportions: It’s all or nothing,” wrote Aleksandr Baunov, a political analyst
at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, a research group. “If he thinks the fate
of the world is being decided in the Donbas, then the future of Syria will be
decided there as well.” In the short term, as Moscow maneuvers to keep its
military bases in Syria, Mr. Putin could intensify his costly offensive in
Ukraine to recover some prestige. Pro-war Russian commentators have called on
Mr. Putin to do just that, while also demanding tougher peace conditions in
Ukraine to avoid the kind of inconclusive ceasefire that ultimately led to Mr.
al-Assad’s downfall. Both scenarios would complicate the incoming Trump
administration’s promise to swiftly end the fighting in Ukraine.
As Mr. al-Assad’s regime crumbled, President-elect Donald J. Trump taunted
Russia for its failure to save its ally and called on Mr. Putin to strike a deal
on Ukraine, without explaining what it might look like.Russia is “in a weakened
state right now,” Mr. Trump wrote on his social media platform, Truth Social, on
Sunday, “because of Ukraine and a bad economy.”“I know Vladimir well. This is
his time to act,” Mr. Trump added. Analysts have pointed out that one of the
most consistent features of Mr. Putin’s opaque 25-year rule is his aversion to
acting from such obvious positions of weakness or submitting to external
pressures. Mr. Putin’s own descriptions of what a Russian victory in Ukraine
would look like have always been vague. By last year, the Russian Army had
abandoned its failed attempts to mount grand offensives that could topple the
Ukrainian state. It has concentrated instead on Ukraine’s east, simultaneously
pressuring Kyiv’s forces in multiple parts of the front and bombing Ukrainian
cities and critical infrastructure. Military experts have interpreted this
strategy as an attempt to exhaust Ukraine’s military and society, and force Kyiv
to the negotiating table. Mr. Putin has implied that any peace deal must allow
Russia to keep at least the territory that it has already occupied, and
guarantee Ukraine’s military neutrality, meaning no entry into NATO. Russia also
wants to suppress Ukraine’s military capacity. “We must not talk about a
ceasefire for half an hour or half a year, so that they could resupply
ammunition,” Mr. Putin said at a forum in southern Russia last month, referring
to Ukraine.
The Ukrainian government has repeatedly rejected any peace conditions that would
formalize the loss of its territory or bar the country from seeking NATO
membership. In the short term, Moscow’s setback in Syria could shrink the room
for compromise further. Russia’s pro-war commentators have reacted to Mr. al-Assad’s
downfall with bewilderment and anger, lamenting the lives of hundreds of Russian
soldiers who died propping up a Syrian Army that melted away under a rebel
assault. The demands of the war in Ukraine had reduced Russia’s ability to
prevent the collapse.
On Sunday, one prominent Russian ultranationalist, Zakhar Prilepin, called Syria
“our catastrophe.” Many of these commentators said that Russia must learn from
Mr. al-Assad’s mistakes. “The conclusion is obvious: It’s best not to leave
frozen conflicts,” said Oleg Tsaryov, a pro-Russian former Ukrainian lawmaker
who now writes about the war from exile in Russia. “If a conflict is frozen, the
enemy will undoubtedly exploit your moment of weakness,” he wrote in a written
response to questions.
Some pro-war Russian commentators went further than Mr. Tsaryov, and called on
the Russian military to respond to the embarrassment in Syria with even more
brutality in Ukraine. “This is precisely the time to show extreme toughness, and
even cruelty” in Ukraine, Aleksei Pilko, an ultranationalist Russian historian,
wrote on the Telegram messaging app on Sunday. He called for targeted killings
of Ukrainian officials and more Russian airstrikes against Ukrainian government
buildings and energy infrastructure. Vasily Kashin, a political scientist at
Moscow’s state-run Higher School of Economics, has called the outpouring of
nationalistic fervor following the Syria debacle “media noise.”
Mr. Putin has certainly long cultivated an image as a master strategist
unperturbed by the ebb and flow of daily events. Still, the blow inflicted by
Mr. al-Assad’s collapse to the Russian leader’s global reputation could yet
compel him to make a show of strength in Ukraine, said Tatiana Stanovaya, a
Russian political scientist at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. “In a modern
world, a victory is only possible in a fast and short war,” Ruslan Pukhov, a
prominent Russian military expert, wrote in a column about Syria for the Russian
business newspaper Kommersant on Sunday. “If you can’t secure your success in a
military-political sphere, then eventually you will lose, no matter what you
do.”