English LCCC Newsbulletin For
Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For August 23/2024
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news
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Bible Quotations For today
No slave can serve two masters; for a slave will either hate the one and love
the other, or be devoted to the one and despise the other
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Luke 16/13-17/:”No slave can
serve two masters; for a slave will either hate the one and love the other, or
be devoted to the one and despise the other. You cannot serve God and
wealth.’The Pharisees, who were lovers of money, heard all this, and they
ridiculed him. So he said to them, ‘You are those who justify yourselves in the
sight of others; but God knows your hearts; for what is prized by human beings
is an abomination in the sight of God. ‘The law and the prophets were in effect
until John came; since then the good news of the kingdom of God is proclaimed,
and everyone tries to enter it by force. But it is easier for heaven and earth
to pass away, than for one stroke of a letter in the law to be dropped.
Titles For The Latest English LCCC
Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on August 22-23/2024
Hamadeh says war 'within hours': How true is
that?
Ceasefire hopes fade as Gaza fighting rages
Violent Bombardment in South Lebanon
Southern Front: Phosphorus Shells, Fires, and Hezb Retaliation
What do we know about Hezbollah's tunnels?
No Vacancy in Army Command
Narcotics Hidden Inside Food Containers at BIA, Two Individuals Arrested
Bou Assi : Strategic Decisions Are Under Iranian Influence
Journalist Christiane Gemayel Summoned by Cybercrime Bureau
Ibrahim rules out all-out war, says any escalation will be controlled
Algerian fuel tanker on mercy mission to power-short Lebanon
China urges citizens in Lebanon to leave 'as soon as possible'
Iran and Hezbollah vowed revenge against Israel. Why hasn't it come?/Nabih Bulos/
Los Angeles Times/August 22, 2024
Political Hate Speech in Lebanese Social Media/Salam Zaatari/This Is
Beirut/August 22/2024
Spotlight on UNIFIL: Everything You Need to Know/Sana Richa Choucair/ UNIFIL
Official Site
Japanese FM hopes Lebanese government will urge Hezbollah to avoid escalation/NAJIA
HOUSSARI/Arab News/August 22, 2024
”How to tackle defending against Iran, Hezbollah from ex-air defense chief Ran
Kochav - exclusive/Yonah Jeremy Bob/Jerusalem Post/August 22/2024
Decrypting the concept and understanding of the concept of « Resistance »./Roger
Bejjani/Face Book/August 22/2024
Trois questions au général Maroun Hitti: On fait la guerre quand on veut, on la
termine quand on peut/Yara Germany/ICI/22 Août, 2024
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on August 22-23/2024
Israeli intelligence chiefs attend talks in Cairo as Gaza bombing continues
US envoy tells UN: Gaza ceasefire deal ‘now is in sight’
Mediators meet in Cairo in effort to resolve gaps on Gaza truce proposal
Israeli team in Cairo for hostage negotiations, Qatari PM to head to Iran next
week
Key mediator Egypt expresses skepticism about Gaza cease-fire proposal
Biden speaks with Netanyahu as US prods Israel and Hamas to agree on cease-fire
Biden tells Netanyahu Gaza ceasefire deal is urgent
Bullets found in bodies of Israeli hostages retrieved from Gaza, hostage
families forum says
Shin Bet chief to Netanyahu: Jewish terror in West Bank on brink of disaster
There are no longer places to go’: Thousands in Gaza forced to flee again after
Israeli evacuation orders
Israel military court extends house arrest of soldiers accused of Palestinian
prisoner abuse
Israeli police arrest four suspected over settler attack on Palestinian village
Titles For The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources
on August 22-23/2024
America’s Iran policy is a failure −
piecemeal deterrence and sanctions can go only so far/Arie Perliger, UMass
Lowell/The Conversation/August 22/2024
America’s ‘self-defeat’ in Afghanistan...Three years after the U.S. withdrawal,
lessons should have been learned/Clifford D. May/ The Washington Times
From “harsh punishment” to “tactical retreat”—time isn’t on Tehran’s side/Janatan
Sayeh/FDD Long War Journal/August 22/2024
Iran Is Shockingly Close to Nuclear Breakout Potential; The World Must
Act/Andrea Stricker/The Algemeiner/August 22/2024
Kamala Harris Picks Terror Supporter as "Liaison" to American Jews/Daniel
Greenfield/Gatestone Institute./August 22, 2024
'IRGC has become a monster, not what we intended,' founder tells 'Post'/Alex
Winston/Jerusalem Post/August 22/2024
Israel must stand firm on the battlefield and also the hostage negotiation
table/Professor Efraim Inbar/JISS/August 22, 2024
Fears escalate over Iran’s potential emergence as a nuclear state/Dr. Majid
Rafizadeh/Arab News/August 22, 2024
What happens when AI plans your vacation?/Rafael Hernández de Santiago/Arab
News/August 22, 2024
There is no such thing as ‘free’ speech, it comes at a price/Ross Anderson/Arab
News/August 22, 2024
Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on August 22-23/2024
Hamadeh says war 'within hours': How true is
that?
Naharnet/August 22, 2024
MP Marwan Hamadeh sparked panic on Wednesday by saying that an Israel-Hezbollah
war would erupt within days or even “hours,” citing diplomats informed on the
negotiations in the region. A few hours later, Hamadeh appeared to downplay his
own remarks, telling al-Jadeed television that his statement was “blown out of
proportion” and that he based his analysis on “alarming developments on the
ground that took place over the past 48 hours.”Calling his remarks a
“journalistic analysis,” Hamadeh noted that he warned of Israel’s intentions
after “U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken left for Washington without
setting a date for the resumption of negotiations” between Israel and Hamas. And
in remarks to MTV, Hamadeh clarified that his “predictions” were based on
“battlefield developments, diplomatic deliberations and the uncertainty over the
resumption of the Doha talks,” noting that “the issue of war is not certain.”
Hamadeh had told MTV earlier in the day that he had “information, from officials
directly involved in the negotiations, that war will break out within a few days
or hours.” Media reports meanwhile said that a “European ambassador” had told
Lebanese politicians and journalists on Tuesday that a “major war” would erupt
in Lebanon and the region. “But the same ambassador had repeated the same
remarks months ago several times,” the reports said. As for the reasons behind
the scare “campaign,” the reports blamed “Israel’s attempt to prevent Hezbollah
from escalation or carrying out a response to the assassination of its military
commander Fouad Shukur.”
Ceasefire hopes fade as Gaza fighting rages
Agence France Presse/August 22, 2024
Hopes were dwindling Thursday for a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, where fighting
raged despite pressure from the United States on Israel and Palestinian
militants Hamas to reach an agreement. After more than 10 months of war,
officials from the United States and Arab mediators Egypt and Qatar had been set
to meet in Cairo for a new round of talks this week, but confirmation was still
pending. The war triggered by Hamas's unprecedented October 7 attack on Israel
has devastated Gaza, displaced nearly all its population at least once and
triggered a humanitarian crisis. Diplomatic efforts have intensified amid the
risk of a wider war following killings, widely blamed on Israel, that sparked
threats of reprisals from Iran and its allies. U.S. Secretary of State Antony
Blinken on Wednesday ended his latest tour of the Middle East, aimed at
finalizing a ceasefire, without a breakthrough. In a phone call later, President
Joe Biden pushed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to accept a deal,
amid pressure from pro-Palestinian protesters at the U.S. Democratic party's
convention ahead of a November presidential election. "The president stressed
the urgency of bringing the ceasefire and hostage release deal to closure and
discussed upcoming talks in Cairo to remove any remaining obstacles," the White
House said. Biden also reassured Netanyahu of the efforts of the United States
-- Israel's main ally and weapons supplier -- to support it against threats from
Iran and its proxies. Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic party's
candidate in the U.S. presidential election, also took part in the call.
'Chances for deal slim'
Netanyahu, a hawkish political veteran leading a fragile right-wing coalition,
has reportedly disagreed on a key sticking point -- the removal of Israeli
troops from the border between Gaza and Egypt. His office confirmed the phone
conversation, without elaborating on its content. Israel's Yedioth Ahronoth
newspaper quoted "officials knowledgeable about the negotiations" as saying "the
chances for a deal are slim" but attempts were being made to hold talks in Cairo
on Friday and Saturday. It said, quoting the same source, that Netanyahu
insisted on an Israeli army "presence along the Philadelphi Corridor" and that
the United States "demanded a significant withdrawal of troops" in two stages.
The daily said "the Americans understood the mistake" made by Blinken when he
announced during his visit to Israel that Netanyahu had accepted a U.S. proposal
to bring the two sides closer together and that "the ball was now in Hamas's
court". It said U.S. Middle East envoy Brett McGurk had been sent to Cairo to
prepare for the meeting and to seek to resolve the Philadelphi Corridor issue.
Hamas on Sunday said the U.S. proposal "responds to Netanyahu's conditions" and
accused him of "obstructing an agreement."In its statement, Hamas cited
Netanyahu's "insistence on continuing to occupy" the Philadelphi corridor and
two other areas, which Israel sees as important for preventing the flow of
weapons into Gaza.
The Islamist group said it was keen to reach a ceasefire but protested "new
conditions" from Israel in the latest U.S. proposal.
China warning
On the ground, Gaza's civil defense agency said at least three people were
killed and 10 children wounded in an Israeli strike Wednesday on a
school-turned-shelter in Gaza City.The Israeli military said Thursday that it
"conducted a precise strike on a weapons storage facility" near a Hamas
command-and-control centre inside a compound that previously served as a school.
The United Nations says Israel has struck at least 23 schools sheltering
displaced people in Gaza since July 4 Troops "eliminated" more than 50 militants
in the past 24 hours and intensified operations in the Khan Yunis area and the
outskirts of Deir el-Balah, the military said.A civil defense spokesperson
reported bombings in the Nuseirat and Maghazi refugee camps, and east of Khan
Yunis. Witnesses reported seeing heavy Israeli shelling in Khan Younis as well
as clashes between Palestinian militants and the army in the Netzarim junction
further north.
Violence has also escalated in the Israeli-occupied West Bank. The Palestinian
territory's health ministry said three people were killed in an Israeli strike
on a house in Tulkarem refugee camp on Thursday. The Israeli military said it
carried out a "counterterrorism operation" in the city of Tulkarem. Fears of a
major regional escalation have mounted since Lebanon's Hezbollah movement and
other allies of Iran vowed to respond to twin killings of top Hezbollah and
Hamas militants, blamed on Israel, late last month. China on Thursday urged its
citizens to leave Lebanon "as soon as possible", becoming the latest country to
do so. On Wednesday the West Bank-based Palestinian movement Fatah, a rival of
Hamas, accused Israel of attempting to ignite a "full-scale" regional war after
killing one of the leaders of its armed wing in Lebanon.
Violent Bombardment in South Lebanon
This Is Beirut/August 22, 2024
Southern Lebanon has been the scene of violent bombardments since the early
hours of Thursday. At dawn, an Israeli airstrike targeted and destroyed a house
in Kfarchouba, in the Hasbaya district. Israeli jets launched a series of
airstrikes, it targeted Aita al-Shaab, Kfarchouba, Mhaibib, Khiam, Mays al-Jabal,
Wadi al-Azbah near the outskirts of Zebqine, Chihine, Kouthariyat al-Sayyad,
Ramya, Kfar Kila, Naqoura, as well as Labbouneh and al-Alam. Eyewitnesses
reported that the airstrikes, were extremely violent and caused significant
tremors. Media sources indicated no injuries have been reported in the towns
that were hit by the airstrikes so far. Additionally, planes broke the sound
barrier over the skies of the Nabatiyeh area and its surroundings. Prior to the
Israeli escalation (early Thursday), UNIFIL forces conducted a military drill
leading to the sounding of alarm sirens in most UNIFIL centers in the south,
signaling level 3, and indicating danger and the need to take cover. Hezbollah,
for its part, claimed an attack on the Branit barracks, Thursday morning. The
Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth reported on Wednesday that several drones,
especially those used for gathering intelligence, were able to reach Haifa
unhindered, and went even further without being detected by alarm systems as
they crossed from Lebanon. The report also states that more than 1,200
explosive-laden drones have penetrated Israeli territory since Hezbollah began
its attacks on the north, Israeli security services are reportedly still
struggling to respond to this “lethal threat”. The Israeli army’s spokesperson
Avichay Adraee, wrote on his “X” account: “In a widespread attack last night,
the Israeli Defense Forces attacked and destroyed Hezbollah targets in more than
10 different areas in southern Lebanon.”
Adraee stated that “among the targets that were hit were weapons depots,
military buildings, and a launch platform used by Hezbollah to carry out
offensive operations against Israel.”
Southern Front: Phosphorus Shells, Fires, and Hezb
Retaliation
This Is Beirut/August 22, 2024
The southern front was cautiously calm on Thursday afternoon, following heavy
Israeli bombardment from dawn onward. Late in the day, a large fire broke out in
Wadi Hamoul, on the outskirts of Naqoura in the caza of Tyre, and forest fires
flared up in Yaroun after the Israeli Army fired phosphorus shells at these
localities. Wadi Hassan on the outskirts of Jebbayn, Kfar Kila, Bab al-Thaniyah,
Marouahine, Aitaroun, Khiam, and the outskirts of al-Tiri and Shebaa were also
bombed by Israeli artillery. In Khiam, several buildings and roads were damaged.
On the Israeli side, alarm sirens went off in Shomerah and Zar’it in the western
Galilee, and in Manara in the eastern sector of the border with Lebanon.
According to Israeli radio, “a building in the Upper Galilee town of Zarit was
damaged by a rocket fired from Lebanon.”
Eight Retaliatory Operations by Hezbollah
Meanwhile, Hezbollah retaliated following successive Israeli strikes against
villages in the south and the deaths of several citizens. In several
communiqués, the pro-Iranian group announced that it had targeted eight Israeli
positions on Thursday, including those in Al-Marj, Al-Malkiya, spy installations
in the Jal al-Alam site, and gatherings of Israeli soldiers in the vicinity of
the Metula site. It also claimed to have attacked a gathering of soldiers near
the Israeli position of Al-Ghajar “with appropriate weapons, hitting it directly
and killing and wounding its members,” as well as in Kiryat Shmona. This is the
second time since the outbreak of war with Israel on October 8, 2023, that the
pro-Iranian group has targeted this position. This morning, it claimed
responsibility for an attack on the Branit barracks.
What do we know about Hezbollah's tunnels?
Agence France Presse/August 22, 2024
Hezbollah has provided a glimpse of its secret tunnels housing weapons -- a move
experts say is a warning to Israel as the underground facilities could prove
vital to the group should wider war erupt. The Iran-backed movement has
exchanged regular fire with Israel in support of its ally Hamas since the
Palestinian militant group's October 7 attack on Israel sparked the Gaza war.
Prospects of full-blown conflict grew after Iran and Hezbollah vowed revenge for
the killing last month, blamed on Israel, of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in
Tehran, and an Israeli strike that killed Fouad Shukur, a top Hezbollah
commander, in south Beirut. Nicholas Blanford, a Beirut-based Hezbollah expert
and senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, said a Hezbollah video released
Friday showing underground tunnels and missile launchers could be a "warning" to
Israel.AFP could not verify the video's authenticity. Hany Farid, a digital
forensics expert at the University of California, Berkeley, said it was
"unlikely" to have been generated by artificial intelligence. But parts of the
video "might incorporate classic CGI gaming footage", he added, referring to
computer-generated imagery. Here's what we know about the footage and
Hezbollah's tunnels.
What tunnel video? -
Hezbollah's polished, four-and-a-half minute video titled "Our mountains are our
storehouses" showed what appeared to be underground tunnels big enough to fit
convoys of trucks. Some trucks appeared to transport missiles and launchers
through the facility, identified as "Imad 4" -- a reference to top Hezbollah
commander Imad Mughniyeh, killed in a 2008 Damascus car bombing blamed on
Israel. "Some of the footage as the trucks/motorbikes move through the tunnel
have a slight CGI look to them," Farid said, adding he could not say for sure
whether the technology was used. Blanford said that "in the context of
Hezbollah's expected retaliation" to Shukur's killing, Hezbollah "probably
wanted to remind" Israel that it can "unleash far more powerful weaponry" should
Israel's counter-attack be too strong. For Lebanese retired brigadier-general
Mounir Shehadeh, the video showed "how deep, how large and how complex (the
tunnels) are, and how difficult or even impossible it would be for Israel to
reach them".
What are the tunnels' advantages? -
Hezbollah's backer Iran also has underground facilities. "We call the
underground missile facilities... 'missile cities'," Tehran's embassy in Beirut
said Friday on X, adding that they "exist all over Iran" and allow forces to
"strike the enemy from anywhere" in the country. Iran's Mehr news agency said
Saturday that the Hezbollah video showed a "missile city under the Jabal Amel
mountains", a term commonly used to refer to south Lebanon where, alongside east
Lebanon, Hezbollah has a strong presence. Military analyst Hisham Jaber, a
retired Lebanese general, said little was known about Hezbollah's "top secret"
underground bunkers and tunnels. The "Imad 4" facility is probably one of
dozens, he said, adding that "south Lebanon's mountains and hilltops are ideal
for digging (facilities) that are protected because they are at the heart of a
mountain". "Warplanes cannot reach these facilities," Jaber told AFP, and
fighters could remain inside well-provisioned tunnels for months. Israel could
"keep on destroying Lebanon for months without ever reaching" the bunkers, he
added. Orna Mizrahi, a Hezbollah expert at the Tel Aviv-based Institute for
National Security Studies, said Israel has known about the underground
facilities "for a while" and has experience dealing with Hamas tunnels in Gaza.
"We have good experience with what's going on in Gaza and then I suppose that
this is what we'll have to tackle if we are going inside Lebanon in the next
war," she told AFP's Jerusalem bureau.
What's the tunnels' history? -
At a Hezbollah "tourist complex" in Mlita in south Lebanon inaugurated in 2010,
a tunnel stretching 200 meters belonging to the group is on display. Blanford
said he believed Hezbollah's tunnel networks began in the mid-1980s when Israeli
troops withdrew from most of Lebanon to an occupied strip along the southern
border. "It's been widely understood for a long time that Hezbollah has
extensive tunnel networks... used to store munitions and to serve as
low-signature missile (and) rocket launch pads," he said. Tunnels built in the
early 2000s resembling the one in Mlita were "designed for a small number of
fighters to rest, sleep and eat", said Blanford, while the facility in Friday's
video "completely dwarfs those earlier man-sized bunkers". Daniel Meier, head of
the Middle East masters programme at Sciences Po Grenoble, said Hezbollah's
tunnel usage during its 2006 war with Israel, especially in the border town of
Bint Jbeil, put heavy pressure on Israel "despite its air supremacy". After
that, Hezbollah began building more complex underground facilities and tunnels,
experts told AFP. In January 2019, the Israel military said it uncovered and
destroyed "cross-border attack tunnels", some burrowed under Lebanese border
villages that Israel has repeatedly struck since October.
No Vacancy in Army Command
This Is Beirut/August 22, 2024
An opposition leader has confirmed that if a president of the Republic is not
elected before the end of the year to appoint a new commander-in-chief of the
Army, the current Commander-in-Chief, General Joseph Aoun, who is set to retire
in mid-January 2025, will be reappointed for another year despite the objections
of some. The United States envoy to Lebanon, Amos Hochstein, raised the issue
with the officials he met and confirmed that the Biden administration has
allocated $1 billion to the army to recruit 6,000 new soldiers. This funding is
intended to support the implementation of Resolution 1701 after a potential
declaration of truce in Gaza and cessation of military operations in South
Lebanon. The message was clearly delivered to those concerned, accompanied by an
urgent call for the election of a president of the Republic as soon as the truce
in Gaza is announced. These sources confirm that the government’s approval of
the recruitment of 1,500 of the planned 6,000 soldiers is nothing more than a
clear message to foreign countries that the government approves the renewal of
the mandate of the Army’s commander-in-chief responsible for implementing
Resolution 1701 in full.
Narcotics Hidden Inside Food Containers at BIA, Two Individuals Arrested
This Is Beirut/August 22, 2024
Two Lebanese individuals were arrested in the Airport Road area following
intensive investigations and inquiries by the Internal Security Forces (ISF)
related to drug trafficking. The Public Relations Division of the ISF’s General
Directorate issued a statement, noting that the Central Anti-Narcotics Bureau
had received information about a network preparing to smuggle narcotics hidden
inside food containers to Dubai via Beirut’s Rafic Hariri International Airport.
As a result of these intensive investigations, the Bureau identified the
location where the package was to be delivered in the Airport Road area. The
following individuals were arrested: A. N. D. (born in 1990, Lebanese
nationality) and M. H. (born in 1988, Lebanese nationality). The suspects were
found in possession of several of the aforementioned containers, which contained
3 kilograms of Captagon pills – approximately 16,000 pills – professionally
concealed. “The necessary legal actions were taken against the detainees, and
efforts are ongoing to arrest the remaining individuals involved under the
supervision of the competent judiciary,” the statement said.
Bou Assi : Strategic Decisions Are Under Iranian Influence
This Is Beirut/August 22, 2024
Member of the “Strong Republic” bloc, MP Pierre Bou Assi, shared his insights on
Lebanon’s current situation, addressing the nation’s challenges. Bou Assi
expressed concern for all Lebanese sects, noting a prevailing sense of
existential peril. Many Lebanese feel excluded from a meaningful participation
in the nation’s affairs, with the erosion of state authority and Iran’s
increasing influence over strategic decisions. In an interview on Wednesday on
the local TV station Tele Liban, Bou Assi stated that Iran had dragged Lebanon
into a confrontation with Israel to secure itself a seat at the negotiating
table. Bou Assi remarked that both Iran and Hezbollah do not seek war; rather,
Hezbollah is avoiding actions that would violate engagement rules. He warned
that the growing Shiite isolationism is a dangerous trend for Lebanon.
“Hezbollah cannot force other Lebanese parties to die today ‘on the road to
Jerusalem’, they are partners in this country, not mere add-ons or guests,” Bou
Assi said. (Editor’s note: ‘on the road to Jerusalem’ is a term Hezbollah uses
when announcing the death of one its combattants). He added that Israel has
significantly infiltrated Hezbollah, making the country vulnerable. “There may
be more than a thousand agents in Lebanon, given that more than 500 targets have
been struck,” he added. He highlighted Lebanon’s vulnerabilities in security,
military, economic, and social sectors, stating that Hezbollah’s actions have
cost Lebanon significantly, both now and since 2006. Bou Assi’s critique
extended to the state’s faltering governance structures, asserting that “Prime
Minister Najib Mikati has failed and abdicated his responsibilities.” He urged
the caretaker Prime Minister to take a definitive stance, adhere to
international legitimacy, and respect Resolution 1701. Turning his focus to
Lebanon’s pressing electricity crisis, Bou Assi criticized Gebran Bassil for
rebuffing proposals from Qatar and Kuwait aimed at resolving the issue. He
accused Bassil of prioritizing personal gain over national interests, calling
for a decisive overhaul of the energy sector to combat corruption and
inefficiency.
Journalist Christiane Gemayel Summoned by Cybercrime Bureau
This Is Beirut/August 22, 2024
The founder of LebTalks, journalist Christiane Gemayel, was summoned on Monday
by the Lebanese Cybercrime Bureau “to be heard as part of an investigation
following a complaint lodged against her by the association Our Money is Ours,”
an NGO that defends the rights of depositors in commercial banks, following the
outbreak in 2019 of the financial crisis in Lebanon. The information was shared
this Thursday in the columns of LebTalks. We learned that our colleague, Ms.
Gemayel, and other journalists would be accused by this association of “fraud”
due to “articles that give details on where depositors’ money went and how to
get it back”, as the published article underlines. Commenting on her hearing,
the journalist defended herself by saying, “If we want to draw public attention
to the truth about what happened to bank deposits, where they disappeared, and
how to get them back, this does not mean that we are ‘hartakjiya’ (troublemakers).”Refuting
all the accusations leveled against her and other fellow journalists, Ms.
Gemayel stressed that “we are journalists, and we are competent in this field.
We won’t let an association from here or elsewhere hurl insults at us.” Ms.
Gemayel declared that she had “full confidence in the judiciary, which
represents the Lebanese, and in the impartiality of its judges.”
Ibrahim rules out all-out war, says any escalation will be controlled
Naharnet/August 22, 2024
Former General Security chief Maj. Gen. Abbas Ibrahim has ruled out an “all-out
war,” despite the soaring tensions in Lebanon and the region following Israel’s
assassination of Fouad Shukur in Beirut and Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.“Any
potential escalation in Lebanon will be controlled,” Ibrahim said.He voiced his
remarks during a meeting at his office in Beirut with Brazilian Ambassador to
Lebanon Tarcísio Costa, who was accompanied by the embassy’s military attache
and political adviser.
Algerian fuel tanker on mercy mission to power-short Lebanon
Agence France Presse/August 22, 2024
An Algerian oil tanker set sail Thursday for power-hungry Lebanon, official
media said, with 30,000 tons of fuel destined to restart turbines in the country
grappling with years of economic meltdown. Clashes in Lebanon's south since last
October have only added to the troubles of a country which is politically
largely rudderless, whose economy collapsed five years ago and where power
blackouts are routine. Algerian Prime Minister Nadir Larbaoui spoke by telephone
with his Lebanese counterpart, caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati, "to inform
him of the decision taken by President Tebboune to stand beside brother
Lebanon... and immediately provide a quantity of fuel to make the power plant
function and re-establish electricity," Algeria's official APS agency reported.
Other shipments are expected to follow the initial delivery but no details have
been released. Algeria's President Abdelmajid Tebboune took the decision to help
Lebanon after Lebanon's state-run electricity company on Saturday said its
turbines would stop due to lack of fuel. Lebanese, long used to power cuts
lasting almost an entire day, have relied on small private electricity
generators. Algeria is a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting
Countries. In August, 2022, another OPEC member, Iraq, said it had agreed to
renew a one-year deal to provide Lebanon with one million tons of fuel for its
power plants in exchange for in-kind services.The initial deal with Iraq enabled
Lebanon's power stations to produce one to two hours of electricity per day.
China urges citizens in Lebanon to leave 'as soon as possible'
Naharnet/August 22, 2024
China on Thursday urged its citizens in Lebanon to leave "as soon as possible",
according to an embassy statement, the day after an Israeli strike in the
country killed a senior Palestinian militant. "Recently, the situation on the
Lebanese-Israeli border has continued to be tense, and security circumstances in
Lebanon are severe and complex," China's embassy in Beirut said. "The current
level of risk to travel in Lebanon's South and Nabatieh Governorates is red
(extremely high risk), and other areas is orange (high risk)." The statement
advised Chinese citizens in Lebanon to "take the opportunity while commercial
flights are still running to return to China or leave the country as soon as
possible". The Israeli strike in Lebanon on Wednesday killed Khalil Maqdah,
described by the Palestinian Fatah movement as "one of the leaders" of its armed
wing in the country. The attack led to accusations by Fatah that Israel was
trying to ignite a regional war. It also came hours after U.S. Secretary of
State Antony Blinken ended a tour of the Middle East aimed at reaching a
ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza. The killing of Maqdah marked the
first time Israel has targeted a senior Fatah member in more than 10 months of
cross-border clashes with Lebanese militants, mostly from Hezbollah, during the
Gaza war. Multiple nations have this month called for their citizens to leave
Lebanon, where Hezbollah is based. Thursday's statement by the Chinese embassy
represented a hike in urgency, following its calls earlier this month for
citizens to "travel with caution" should they visit Lebanon.
Iran and Hezbollah vowed revenge against Israel. Why
hasn't it come?
Nabih Bulos/ Los Angeles Times/August 22, 2024
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2024/08/133505/
After the double assassination last month of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in
Tehran and a high-ranking Hezbollah commander in Beirut, Iran and Hezbollah
vowed retaliation against Israel, saying that vengeance was a “matter of
honor.”Many braced for a response from Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah that might
trigger an all-out regional war.
But that hasn’t happened.
Almost a month after the killings, the “harsh punishment” promised by Iran’s
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, along with the “strong and effective”
reprisal Hezbollah head Sayed Hassan Nasrallah vowed to bring upon Israel, has
yet to materialize.
And this week, Iranian officials hinted a response is not imminent. “Time is at
our disposal and the waiting period for this answer may be a long one,” said
Brig. Gen. Ali Mohammad Naeini, spokesman for Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard
Corps in a press conference Tuesday. He insisted there was nevertheless “a
serious determination to respond to the various aggressions of the Zionist
regime,” a reference to Israel, and that it may not be a “repeat of previous
operations.” He appeared to be referring to Iran’s missile barrage against
Israel in April, which came after Israel killed a top Iranian commander in the
country’s embassy in the Syrian capital, Damascus. Many airlines have canceled
flights into Israel for fear of being caught in the crossfire. Foreign embassies
have issued travel and security warnings for Israel, hitting Tel Aviv's summer
tourist season hard.
The number of travelers to Israel is down 75% in the first six months of the
year, according to Israel's Central Bureau of Statistics. Last week, Fitch
downgraded Israel's credit rating from “A+” to “A” in the face of continued
conflict in Gaza that “could last well into 2025” and the “risks of it
broadening to other fronts,” according to a note from the U.S. credit rating
agency.
Iran and Lebanon have experienced similar airline suspensions. For Lebanon,
where Israel and Hezbollah have traded fire across the border since Oct. 8, the
losses in tourism revenues are estimated to be more than $7 billion, officials
say, compounding the malaise of an economy already suffering through a
devastating five-year currency crisis. In the three weeks since the killings,
the U.S. deployed additional forces to the Middle East, dispatching two carrier
groups — the second, led by the carrier USS Abraham Lincoln, arrived Wednesday —
and a submarine, to serve as a deterrent as well as a means of defense in the
event of an attack against Israel. Concerns are growing that the conflict could
next engulf Iran more directly, said Matthew Levitt, a regional expert at the
Washington Institute think tank. “Iran has ultimately one single bright red line
when it comes to the prospect of regional war, which is that it not spill over
into the borders of Iran,” Levitt said.
But Iran is aware it would pay a price for attacking Israel, said Ali Vaiz, an
Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group think tank. “The simple reality
is that Israel and the U.S. have escalation domination,” Vaiz said. “If Iran
wants to retaliate in a way that isn’t symbolic, it will invite a much more
devastating blow — which at this time it cannot absorb." Vaiz said it might be
smarter for Iranian leaders to avoid escalating tensions. “The Iranian
leadership has had a few tactical setbacks, but strategically they are winning,
in the sense that Israel has not been able to reach its strategic objectives in
Gaza, and it has isolated itself internationally,” he said. Aside from the
military mobilizations, diplomats have scrambled from one regional capital to
another in recent weeks with the aim of quelling tensions. Last week, the U.S.
spearheaded a last-ditch effort to forge a cease-fire in Gaza, hoping that a
breakthrough in negotiations would mollify Iran and Hezbollah’s demands for
revenge.
That effort appears to have played a role in at least delaying an Iranian
retaliation. In a statement Wednesday, Iran’s mission to the United Nations said
the government “will meticulously calibrate its response to prevent any
potential negative consequences that could affect a possible ceasefire.”
https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2024-08-22/iran-and-hezbollah-vowed-revenge-against-israel-why-hasnt-it-come
Political Hate Speech in Lebanese Social Media
Salam Zaatari/This Is Beirut/August 22/2024
Hate speech has become an increasingly pervasive issue in today’s interconnected
world, particularly on social media platforms like X (formerly Twitter),
amplifying divisive rhetoric with profound societal repercussions. In Lebanon, a
country with a fragile sectarian balance, the recent surge in hate speech
between Lebanese Shias and Lebanese Christians on social media is a worrying
trend. The rise of political hate speech not only inflames tensions but also
risks corrupting the very fabric of society, with potentially devastating
long-term effects. Recent monitoring on social media unveiled a trending topic:
the campaign against Nabila Awad. MTV presenter, Nabila Awad, recently found
herself at the center of a social media storm after voicing opposition to
boycotting McDonald’s, amidst widespread calls for a boycott of the brand due to
its perceived political associations. Her remarks, intended as a personal
stance, sparked a wave of backlash online. Critics quickly launched a hate
campaign, with many accusing her of being insensitive to the broader political
and social context. Nabila received death threats and hate messages because of
her statement. The hate campaign highlighted the intense polarization on social
media, where differing opinions can rapidly escalate into personal attacks and
vilification. Ghadi Francis, a well-known Lebanese journalist, responded to
Nabila Awad’s statement about boycotting McDonald’s with a strong rebuttal,
emphasizing the political implications of supporting the fast-food chain.
Francis pointed out that every burger purchased at McDonald’s indirectly
contributes to the Israeli Army, referencing the claims that some of the
company’s profits are funneled into supporting Israel’s military efforts.While
claims suggest that McDonald’s indirectly supports the Israeli Army through
profits, research revealed no concrete evidence of direct donations to Israel.
This claim often circulates in the form of rumors or misinformation,
particularly in the context of political conflicts in the Middle East. The
origin of this belief is likely tied to the fact that McDonald’s operates in
Israel through a local franchise, as it does in many other countries. The local
franchise sponsored the Israeli army with free meals during the Gaza war. This
PR stunt triggered a worldwide boycott movement, that made McDonald’s
corporation buy back the 225 franchised Israeli restaurants.
McDonald’s, as a corporation, does not publicly align itself with any political
or military causes, and there is no verifiable information to suggest that the
company donates to the army nor to the state of Israel. Boycotting McDonald’s
for health reasons makes more sense, since evidence about harmful products is
plentiful. Despite this, the incident fueled a hate campaign on social media,
particularly on X, a platform owned by Elon Musk, known for his support of
Israel. He has openly expressed support for Israel and even attended Netanyahu’s
speech in Congress, applauding a figure that “Free Palestine” supporters
consider a war criminal. However, Lebanon saw no widespread boycott against the
platform or Musk.
These platforms have also become breeding grounds for hate speech, where
individuals can anonymously spread harmful rhetoric with little accountability.
On platforms like X, hate speech can spread rapidly, creating echo chambers
where users are exposed only to views that reinforce their biases. This not only
normalizes hate but also emboldens individuals to express increasingly extreme
opinions. Opinions on social media, akin to junk mail, inundate users with
unwanted content. The Hate messages found on X between Hezbollah supporters and
the opposition supporters are worse than speech used during the civil war. Hate
will consume both sides eventually. Whenever a user states an opinion that
differs from that of Hezbollah’s supporters, comments become personal rather
than argumental, with no valid counter argument. This suppression technique is
fueling more hate towards Hezbollah’s supporters and it’s destroying any future
communications between both sides, giving more reasons for far-right radicals to
rise and demand an actual divorce between Lebanese.
“Social media gives legions of idiots the right to speak when they once only
spoke at a bar after a glass of wine, without harming the community… but now
they have the same right to speak as a Nobel Prize winner. It’s the invasion of
the idiots.” ― Umberto Eco
Political hate speech is a powerful tool that can corrupt the hearts and minds
of individuals, leading to increased polarization and a breakdown in social
cohesion. When political leaders or influential figures engage in hate speech,
they legitimize such behavior, encouraging others to follow suit. This can
create a cycle of hatred, where opposing groups become increasingly entrenched
in their views, seeing each other not as fellow citizens but as enemies. In
Lebanon, the rise of hate speech between Lebanese Shias and Lebanese Christians
is a stark reminder of how fragile inter-communal relations can be. The
consequences of this are severe: it deepens mistrust, fuels animosity, and can
ultimately lead to real-world violence.
One of the immediate consequences of hate speech is the erosion of social trust.
When individuals are constantly exposed to hateful rhetoric online, they begin
to view members of other communities with suspicion and fear. Fear can be easily
exploited.
Hate speech erodes social trust, making it more difficult for people to
cooperate, even on issues of common interest. Moreover, hate speech can lead to
the marginalization of communities. When one group is consistently vilified
online, it can lead to discrimination in real life, with individuals being
denied opportunities or facing hostility in public spaces. In the worst-case
scenario, hate speech can incite violence. In a country like Lebanon, where past
conflicts have often been sparked by sectarian tensions, the proliferation of
hate speech on social platforms could readily escalate into physical clashes.
Continuous exposure to dehumanizing messages makes it simpler for individuals to
rationalize violent actions against perceived adversaries. While freedom of
speech is important, it should not come at the cost of societal harmony and
safety. Hate speech acts as a corrosive influence capable of unraveling the
intricate fabric of society. Such behavior is propelling the nation towards a
point of irreversible division, fueling calls for the fragmentation of our
country into two distinct states.
Spotlight on UNIFIL: Everything You Need to Know
Sana Richa Choucair/ UNIFIL Official Site
With the renewal of the UNIFIL mandate set for August 29, This is Beirut
provides a comprehensive overview of this international force governed by UN
resolutions. The United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) mandate is due
for renewal on August 29, 2024. This annual process involves the Security
Council voting to extend UNIFIL’s mission for another year at the request of the
Lebanese government. This is Beirut provides an in-depth look at this
international military force, entrusted with maintaining peace in South Lebanon.
Establishment of UNIFIL
UNIFIL was established in 1978 in response to armed conflict with Israel in
South Lebanon. It was formed by two resolutions adopted on March 19, 1978, by
the United Nations Security Council. Resolution 425 called on Israel to
“immediately cease its military actions against Lebanon’s territorial integrity
and withdraw its forces from all Lebanese territory without delay.” The
resolution also mandated the “immediate establishment of a United Nations
Interim Force in Lebanon,” with three key objectives: “to verify the withdrawal
of Israeli forces, restore international peace and security, and assist the
Lebanese government in reasserting its authority in the South Lebanon region.”
Building on the previous resolution, Resolution 426 established UNIFIL to
operate under the UN’s auspices “for an initial period of six months, extendable
if necessary, as determined by the Security Council.” UNIFIL’s first
international troops arrived in the region on March 23, 1978.
In which context?
On March 14, 1978, the Israeli military launched a major invasion of South
Lebanon in response to an attack near Tel Aviv two days earlier, which resulted
in the deaths of over 30 Israelis. The attack was claimed by Fatah, a
Palestinian militant group based in the Arkoub region of South Lebanon, which
was referred to as “Fatah land” at the time. This area had become a front with
Israel following the Cairo Agreement of 1969. Signed by General Émile Boustany,
the Commander-in-Chief of the Lebanese Army, and Yasser Arafat, the President of
the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), the agreement allowed the
Palestinian resistance to operate in Lebanon. In this context, the large-scale
Israeli operation, named Operation Litani, aimed to eradicate Palestinian group
bases in the region and establish a security buffer within Lebanese territory.
On the same day, Israeli Defense Minister Ezer Weizman stated that Israel would
continue its occupation of the region until it could ensure that the PLO could
no longer threaten Israel. The Israeli invasion of South Lebanon involved nearly
20,000 infantry troops, as well as tanks, fighter jets and warships. The
operation also included support from various Lebanese armed groups, notably the
South Lebanon Army (SLA), which contributed around 2,000 fighters. The attack
was condemned by the international community, and the Lebanese government
formally lodged a complaint with the Security Council. “Under the current
circumstances, Lebanon is not responsible for the presence of Palestinian bases
in southern Lebanon,” stated Ghassan Tuéni, the head of the Lebanese delegation
to the UN. “The only solution is to end the Israeli aggression and ensure that
Israel withdraws its troops from Lebanon, so that Lebanese authorities can
effectively carry out their duties,” he argued. Thus, the Security Council’s
Resolutions 425 and 426 were enacted to address the situation, resulting in the
establishment of UNIFIL.
UNIFIL’s mandate evolution
When UNIFIL was established in 1978, it initially comprised about 4,000
soldiers, known as “Blue Helmets.” Since then, several UN resolutions have
revised the terms of its operations to better align with regional changes. In
addition to the foundational Resolutions 425 and 426, subsequent resolutions
have increased UNIFIL’s personnel and extended its mandate, providing clearer
guidelines for enhancing its mission effectiveness. Over the years, the Blue
Helmets have also been involved in supporting civilian populations through
medical care, equipment provision and social services.
The mandate of UNIFIL was notably expanded following the July 2006 war between
Israel and Hezbollah, with the adoption of Resolution 1701 on August 11, 2006.
The Security Council primarily called for a complete cessation of hostilities,
urging both Israel and Lebanon to commit to a permanent ceasefire and a
comprehensive resolution to the crisis. In this framework, the Council decided
that, in addition to its original mandate established by Resolutions 425 and
426, UNIFIL would oversee the cessation of hostilities. This included assisting
and supporting the Lebanese Army in its deployment throughout the South,
including along the Blue Line, as Israel withdrew its forces from Lebanon,
according to the official UNIFIL website. UNIFIL also broadened its scope to
include humanitarian assistance for civilians, specifically aiming to facilitate
the safe and voluntary return of displaced persons. Additionally, for the first
time, a Naval Intervention Group consisting of five ships was established to
support UNIFIL’s mission.
UNIFIL’s headquarters are located in Naqoura.
Its operational area extends from the Blue Line in the south to the Litani River
in the north and is divided into two sectors: east and west. The western sector,
headquartered in Shamaa, is supported by five battalions, while the eastern
sector, headquartered in Naqoura, is supported by four battalions. UNIFIL also
maintains a presence at Beirut International Airport and the Beirut Port to
facilitate military rotations and logistical operations.
Japanese FM hopes Lebanese government will urge Hezbollah to avoid escalation
NAJIA HOUSSARI/Arab News/August 22, 2024
BEIRUT: Japan says it hopes the Lebanese government will urge Hezbollah to avoid
escalating hostilities to prevent its conflict with Israel spreading across the
region. In a telephone call to her Lebanese counterpart, Foreign Minister Yoko
Kamikawa said Tokyo was “closely monitoring the situation in the Middle East
with deep concern” and “calls on all parties to refrain from escalation and
avoid a full-scale war in the region.”Her appeal came as Israeli warplanes on
Thursday carried out several raids on border villages in southern Lebanon,
destroying several buildings. According to Lebanon’s caretaker Foreign Minister
Abdallah Bou Habib’s media office, Kamikawa “emphasized Japan’s support for the
tripartite effort led by the US, Egypt and Qatar to reach a ceasefire agreement
in Gaza.”During the call, Bou Habib warned that the situation in the region
could spiral out of control if negotiations regarding Gaza failed. He reiterated
Lebanon’s “desire to avoid escalation and war and the need for a ceasefire in
Gaza to establish calm in southern Lebanon and the region.”
He said he appreciated Japan’s “support for Lebanon at the UN.”
Kamikawa said Japan was coordinating with France on the UN Security Council
regarding the extension of the UN Interim Force in Lebanon’s mandate,
recognizing its importance. Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati's media office
said the ongoing communications regarding the Security Council’s renewal of
UNIFIL’s mandate for another year at the end of this month “showed an
understanding of Lebanon’s demand to maintain the tasks of these forces without
introducing any changes that could complicate the already tense situation.” The
Chinese Embassy in Beirut, meanwhile, said in a statement on Thursday that
Beijing was urging its citizens in Lebanon to leave “as soon as possible.”
“Recently, the situation on the Lebanese-Israeli border has continued to be
tense and security circumstances in Lebanon are severe and complex,” it said.
“The current level of risk to travel in Lebanon’s South and Nabatieh
Governorates is red (extremely high risk) and other areas is orange (high
risk).”Israeli warplanes carried out almost simultaneous raids on Thursday on 14
border villages. They followed 13 military operations carried out by Hezbollah
on Wednesday against Israeli army positions and outposts. The Israeli raids
targeted homes in Aita Al-Shaab, Kfarshouba, Mhaibib, Mais Al-Jabal, Wadi Al-Azba
near Zebqine, Chihine, Kaouthariyet Al-Saiyad, Ramyeh, Kfarkila, Naqoura, Jable,
Labbouneh and Allam. Army spokesperson Avichay Adraee said on X that Israeli
forces “attacked and destroyed Hezbollah targets in over 10 different areas in
southern Lebanon.”“The targets included weapons depots, military buildings and a
rocket launcher used by Hezbollah to carry out attack operations against
Israel.”Hezbollah said it responded with an attack on “the Branit site with
heavy artillery shells” and “an aerial attack with a fleet of drones on Israeli
army positions in the Kiryat Shmona settlement.”It also targeted “spy equipment
in the Jal Al-Allam site with an attack drone, hitting it directly,” and
targeted “gatherings for Israeli soldiers in the surroundings of the Metula
settlement, using direct weapons and causing direct hits.”
Hezbollah also targeted “a positioning of Israeli soldiers near Al-Ghajar site
with appropriate weapons, killing and injuring its members,” it said. No
casualties were reported following the Israeli attacks, but Israeli media said
“three mortars landed in Metula, near the Lebanese border, without causing the
sirens to activate.”While the army spokesperson gave no explanation for the
shelling a Lebanese security source said Hezbollah’s attacks on Wednesday
“didn’t violate the rules of engagement.”Hezbollah’s attacks on Wednesday
targeted the Tsnobar logistics base in the occupied Syrian Golan Heights after
Israel attacked Hezbollah’s weapon depots in northern Bekaa on Tuesday. Some of
Hezbollah’s rockets landed in the town of Katzrin, injuring one person. Israeli
Channel 7 reported that 60 homes in the town had been damaged. Speaking to
Israeli Radio 104.5, Yehuda Dua, the head of the local council in Katzrin, said:
“Five Hezbollah rockets hit the town, destroying homes and leaving families
homeless.” According to the emergency health report prepared by the Lebanese
Ministry of Health, “from Oct. 8, 2023 until Aug. 20, 2024 the total number of
recorded injuries has reached 2,412, including 564 fatalities.
”How to tackle
defending against Iran, Hezbollah from ex-air defense chief Ran Kochav -
exclusive
Yonah Jeremy Bob/Jerusalem Post/August 22/2024
Drone defense could jump from 75 to 90%, but Israel would still suffer initial
damage from a Hezbollah attack, Kochav told the "Jerusalem Post."
Israel and other democracies must transform their concept of how to defend
against multi-tiered threats, former IDF air defense chief and IDF chief
spokesman Brig. Gen. Ran Kochav has written in a journal article exclusively
obtained by The Jerusalem Post.
The former air defense chief also gave the Post his first English-speaking
comments since recently formally retiring from the IDF.
Kochav, along with Dr. Sidharth Kausal, have published a groundbreaking study in
the journal of the Royal United Services Institute, the UK’s leading defense
think tank, just in time to provide advice for Jerusalem in the midst of the
current potentially unprecedented air defense threat posed by Iran and
Hezbollah. Although Israelis are primarily interested in learning from the new
paper to figure out how to balance the mix of ballistic missiles, drones, cruise
missiles, and rockets from Tehran and Beirut, the article has significant
lessons from the Russia-Ukraine War for the rest of the West.
Kochav wrote that though ballistic missiles initially dominated the threat
environment as modern air defense was developed, “Russian and Iranian missile
campaigns in recent months have demonstrated, contemporary threats combine
ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, UAVs and rockets in a multi-tiered threat
environment.”
Next, he warned that, “qualitative improvements to guidance systems mean that
capabilities such as ballistic missiles that were previously relatively
indiscriminate can now target military assets. For example, Iran’s recent attack
on Israel was able to target a specific airbase.”
In addition, the former air defense chief noted “Iran’s use of a Fateh-110
ballistic missile to attack Kurdish separatists and Russia’s use of 9M723
ballistic missiles against Ukrainian surface-to-air systems.” Moreover, the
article said, “certain types of precision strike threat[s] are becoming both
cheaper and more lethal. Examples include Russian loitering munitions such as
the Lancet-3 series or the Iranian Shahed-136, which feature cheap commercially
available components wherever possible.”
Cautioning of the increased danger of drones, he stated, “Improved onboard
processing capacity is improving terminal accuracy, and more powerful explosives
based on aluminum nano-fibres are also making small UAVs more potent.”
Another new risk is how easily more powerful threats, like Iran, can empower
their proxies, such as the Houthis of Yemen, to post substantial independent
sophisticated threats of their own. According to Kochav, “the proliferation of
commercial satellite imagery means that precision targeting is no longer the
preserve of states. Furthermore, as illustrated by Iran’s support to the Houthi
movement, states can increasingly support proxies in developing credible missile
and UAV production facilities.”
Further, he noted that while precision strikes “require some financial capital
to develop, precision strike capabilities are in many ways simpler to generate
than competent pilots, artillerymen or sailors.”
Essentially, Kochav said that generally the IDF had made the right decision to
invest more money into defending against ballistic missiles and rockets than
against drones because they are more deadly.
For example, Kochav noted to the Post that when there are warnings and people
make it to their safe rooms, drones rarely do damage.
In contrast, ballistic missiles and many kinds of rockets can cause serious and
broad harm if they yield a direct hit on a structure. Warnings and safe rooms
certainly reduce risks, especially for indirect hits, but these threats often
must be shot down to avoid mass casualties. Kochav, who spent his final year in
the military researching the full range of aerial threats, acknowledged that
since Hezbollah started using drones more aggressively, strategically, and
lethally some months ago, the current serving IDF has been slow to adjust. He
said he agreed with some criticism that the IDF’s processes for adjusting to
threats that it was not as focused on and which are lethal, but not the biggest
threats, are sometimes too long.
Further, he agreed that it can be hard for top IDF and Defense Ministry
officials to sign off on using older and less shiny technologies versus
investing in cutting-edge technologies like lasers and the F-35.
In that sense, he confirmed to the Post that the Vulcan anti-aircraft defense
systems from decades past or cheap drones identical to the drones Hezbollah is
using, along with more lookouts and local sound detection systems as used in
World War II, could shoot-down a bunch of the short-range cheap drones that
Israel’s fancy long-range radar systems have been missing. Still, he said that
the IDF’s shoot down rate for drones at 75% is not bad considering the challenge
and that even implementing all of the low-cost short-range anti-drone measures
might get shot down success up to 90%, but it still might fall short of the Iron
Dome and certainly would never be hermetic.
Not so simple
One of the hard truths for Israel about any potential war with Hezbollah, and
possibly with the Islamic Republic, would be that the Jewish state’s enemies can
likely inflict significant harm to Israel’s home front before the IDF’s
offensive superiority would be extensive enough to substantially reduce aerial
threat attacks. Kochav stated in his article that the operating environment for
offensive maneuvers is increasingly difficult due to Hezbollah’s weapons being
concealed in sensitive urban settings surrounded by civilians and because it and
Iran can both “deliver a large volume of long-range precision firepower before a
ground offensive can achieve its aims.” With Tehran, it would also take longer
for Israeli aircraft to fly close enough to Iran to reach a point where they
could start destroying land-based missiles threatening Israel.
Evolving methods of having advance intelligence to prevent or deflect aerial
attacks are another key part of the package, noted Kochav, writing that, “since
mapping the frequencies of air defense radar is often a key priority for
adversary intelligence before a conflict, radar emissions can be used to draw
out hostile ISR [Intelligence Surveillance and Reconnaissance] systems, which
may themselves reveal details about how they operate in the process.”
Moreover, the article said that “Air defense radars, such as the AN/MPQ-53 used
by the MIM-104 Patriot system, can also contribute to intelligence acquisition
at the outset of hostilities,” including tracking up to 100 targets and engaging
around nine simultaneously by helping locate the hostile missile launch sites in
addition to the missiles threats themselves. For example, the IDF’s LOTEM
intelligence big data collection and analysis capabilities saved hundreds of
Israeli mourners at a funeral on Oct. 17 from a likely Hamas rocket attack by
breaking down Hamas’s rocket firing patterns, which they had gathered using new
big data digital gathering tools, and determined where the terror group would
most likely need to place its rocket launchers to hit the funeral procession.
The IDF was able to then take action to make sure Hamas could not use the
location in question.
Not so simple
Regarding shooting down aerial threats, Kochav wrote that “judicious choices
will need to be made about the specific types of interceptors that states
stockpile.”
Comparing interceptors made to destroy ballistic missiles up around or above the
atmosphere to C-RAM (counter rocket, artillery, and mortar) interceptors, he
explained in his article that both are necessary since each is tailored to
different kinds of threats. Interceptors made to destroy ballistic missiles,
like Israel’s Arrow 1, 2, and 3, are the only kind of interceptors with the
range, speed, and sophistication to destroy ballistic missiles. But they are
incredibly expensive and often not even usable against lower-grade simpler
threats fired from a short range.
In contrast, C-RAM interceptors, like Israel’s Iron Dome, are extremely
versatile in the kind of short-range threats they can shoot down and are far
cheaper than the Arrow air defense systems, but are simply inadequate to shoot
down ballistic missiles. Blast fragmentation defense systems, the backbone of
many traditional anti-aircraft and lower-grade anti-missile defense systems,
have similar strengths and weaknesses to C-RAMs. What is the best way to balance
a long-term acquisitions strategy for both of them, given that even wealthy
Western countries have limited resources?
The article stated that “one key determinant will be an assessment of which
threat systems could be rapidly destroyed by national or allied deep precision
strike assets once fighting starts, and conversely which are likely to prove a
relatively enduring threat.”In other words, while both are needed, whichever
weapons the enemy in question, such as Iran and Hezbollah, is estimated to be
able to continue to field for use even after days of heavy offensive strikes by
Israel’s air force and potentially some land forces, Israel and other countries
should purchase more interceptors and systems to defend against that threat than
against a threat which offensive strikes can more easily remove. In a section
addressing the arms-race cost problem – that most aerial threats are cheaper for
Iran, Hezbollah, and others – than it is to produce a system to defend against
the threat – the article does briefly address laser air defense systems.
Noting that England expects to deploy the DragonFire directed energy weapon
system with the Royal Navy service in 2027 (parallel though not identical to
Israel’s Iron Beam) and that this can help reduce the cost of defense, Kochav
also highlighted such defense systems limits “in some ways due to their power
requirements and susceptibility to climatic conditions.”
In the long run, though, the article recognized that “these systems can
considerably improve the resilience of air defense networks.”
But Kochav has said that a fully operational laser defense could still be a year
away, and with the war distracting the IDF in many directions, the deadlines for
the laser system keep getting pushed back further.
Some other defense systems were briefly considered, such as high-powered
microwave systems against low-cost UAVs that lack hardened electronics. Kochav
pointed out that “spoofing and electronic attack more broadly represent another
cost-effective way of mitigating the impact of some adversary precision effects”
since “they can force opponents to incorporate costly countermeasures,” changing
the aerial threat in question to being more expensive.
Decrypting the concept and understanding of the concept
of « Resistance ».
Roger Bejjani/Face Book/August 22/2024
In Lebanon people, including journalists and politicians, use words that they do
not understand. Such as « Resistance ».
The right (and the duty) to « resist » an occupier or an aggressor is guaranteed
by the United Nations charter Article 51. However, this right is given to the
occupied state and its people. All its people.
In the case of Lebanon, without dwelling on the reasons behind the Israeli
occupation of part of Lebanon since 1982 or the aborted May 17, 1983 withdrawal
accord, the « resistance » right was granted exclusively effective 1990 against
the Israeli troops and their proxies still occupying south Lebanon, to an
Iranian proxy composed of Lebanese. Other Lebanese’s rights to resist were
amputated by the Syrian occupying forces. This by itself is a violation of the
Lebanese constitution as well as the spirit of article 51; and a dichotomy since
the party entrusted by a foreign country (Syria) answers exclusively another
foreign country (Iran).
Nevertheless, after the unilateral Israeli withdrawal in May 25, 2000 to the
international borders as per UNSC 425, the concept of « Resistance » became
illegitimate, and should have been replaced by the one of « defense ». Since
there were no more Israeli occupying forces to resist within the internationally
recognized borders of Lebanon.
Evidently, the Chebaa farms and Kfarshouba hills (inhabited) and part of the
village of Ghajar (inhabited by Arab Israelis), was fabricated as a new
leitmotiv. Those territories were occupied by Israel in 1967 and were taken from
the Syrian army and therefore fall under UNSC resolution 242. They may be
considered by some as « litigious » territories but do not according to the UN
charter legitimize a military action (such as the Falklands). Those territories
are claimed by Israel, Syria and Lebanon and no Lebanese lives in them and
therefore you cannot resist an occupier with ghosts or goats.
Some refer to the various ministerial declarations: « People, Army and
Resistance » in order to legitimize the existence and activities of HZB. This is
none sense. There is nothing wrong in this motto and can be construed as a valid
defense strategy comparable to the one Switzerland has adopted. However:
1. Resistance (only in case of attack and occupation) has to be transnational
and composed by all Lebanese.
2. Resistance should be steered by the government in case of attack from one of
our neighbors.
Exactly like the Ukrainian resistance.
IMPORTANT
Never in any ministerial declaration, « resistance » was associated to HZB.
Legally HZB is not the resistance as such.
HZB is in constant violation of international law (armistice accord of 1949) and
UNSC resolution 1701 and its actions and activities are illegal and illegitimate
according to Lebanese and international laws.
So continuing referring to HZB as being a Resistance is a dichotomy! It is at
best a battalion of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard composed of Lebanese totally
committed to a foreign country (Islamic Republic of Iran) and should be
prosecuted for:
1. Working to the benefit of a foreign country.
2. Endangering the lives and interests of Lebanese.
3. Undermining the central government authority.
4. Violating the Lebanese constitution.
5. Violating international laws and treaties.
6. Assassination of many Lebanese politicians and opinion leaders and
continuously threatening others.
HZB is comparable to the Waffen SS divisions Charlemagne and Walloon composed
respectively by French and Belgium citizens but operating under Nazi Germany
command. They were the enemies of the French and Belgium people.
On this base, the Lebanese responsible opposition parties should initiate a mega
legal action against HZB.
Trois questions au général Maroun Hitti: On fait la
guerre quand on veut, on la termine quand on peut
Yara Germany/ICI/22 Août, 2024
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2024/08/133498/
Depuis le début des affrontements entre le Hezbollah et Israël au Liban-Sud, les
frappes israéliennes visent de plus en plus en profondeur le territoire libanais,
atteignant la banlieue sud de Beyrouth et même la Békaa. Face aux interrogations
que suscite cette évolution et à la possibilité que ces attaques marquent une
nouvelle phase de la guerre, Ici Beyrouth s’est entretenu avec le général Maroun
Hitti.
Pourquoi, selon vous, les frappes israéliennes ne se limitent-elles plus au
Liban-Sud?
Tout simplement parce que le Hezbollah est présent sur l’ensemble du territoire
libanais et pas seulement au sud.
Ce ciblage en profondeur marque une nouvelle évolution au niveau du cours des
opérations, puisqu’Israël est en train de transgresser toutes les lignes rouges
implicitement coordonnées avec le Hezbollah et d’approfondir le théâtre de ses
opérations au Liban.
Ce n’est plus seulement le Liban-Sud qui est concerné, c’est désormais
l’ensemble du territoire libanais qui est dorénavant impliqué dans le
déroulement des opérations.
D’ailleurs, le ministre israélien de la Défense, Yoav Gallant, a déclaré que le
centre de gravité des opérations des forces armées israéliennes migre du sud
d’Israël, le Hamas à Gaza, vers le nord, le Hezbollah au Liban.
Israël concentre donc désormais ses efforts sur sa frontière nord, puisque la
guerre qui était existentielle au début avec Gaza ne l’est plus en ce moment. En
effet, nous pouvons dire que le Hamas est aujourd’hui "virtuellement" détruit en
tant que structure militaire. C’est la guerre au nord qui devient la priorité
pour Israël, sa nouvelle guerre existentielle. Par conséquent, Israël ne se
limitera pas à un cadre tacitement établi.
À ce stade, ce qui motive Israël et les États-Unis à intensifier leurs efforts
au Liban n’est pas tant de gagner du terrain, d’abattre d’éminentes figures ou
de frapper en profondeur, mais bien de dénier au Hezbollah et au Hamas toute
velléité de prétendre avoir remporté n’importe quelle manche de la guerre, point
essentiel dans la communication stratégique du Hezbollah.
Les deux erreurs commises par le Hamas et le Hezbollah sont, d’une part, de
croire que la stratégie du bouclier humain fonctionnerait toujours et, d’autre
part, de penser que leur ennemi ne maîtrise pas les clés de la communication
stratégique.
Les attaques du Hezbollah dictent-elles les ripostes israéliennes, ou est-ce
l’inverse? Qui mène les affrontements aujourd’hui?
À l’origine, c’est le Hezbollah qui a déclenché les affrontements en attaquant
Israël le 8 octobre. Les hostilités se limitaient alors à des frappes
restreintes de part et d’autre, mais elles se sont intensifiées depuis.
"On fait la guerre quand on veut, on la termine quand on peut", dit Machiavel.
C’est précisément le cas du Hezbollah, qui a initié les affrontements, mais n’a
plus aujourd’hui la capacité d’y mettre un terme.
Désormais, c’est Israël qui mène les affrontements, autrement dit, il a la
capacité de prendre l’initiative et la force nécessaire pour la conserver.
Le Hezbollah répond aujourd’hui, mais il est bien embarrassé. Je suis convaincu
que le Hezbollah s’attendait initialement à ce que la guerre entre Israël et le
Hamas ne dure pas plus de trois mois. En effet, il misait sur la stratégie des
boucliers humains adoptée par le Hamas. Une stratégie consistant à attaquer
Israël, puis à attendre que celui-ci riposte en tuant des civils. Ce qui
provoquerait un tollé général et pousserait la communauté internationale à
intervenir pour instaurer un cessez-le-feu et ramener les belligérants à la
table des négociations. C’est là que le Hamas prévoyait de crier victoire. Or ce
mécanisme n’a pas fonctionné, puisque l’opération du Hamas a débordé.
Le Hezbollah a donc perdu le contrôle. Et même s’il cessait d’attaquer Israël
aujourd’hui, je ne pense pas qu’Israël s’arrêterait. Pour le gouvernement
israélien, un retour au statu quo qui prévalait avant le 7 octobre à sa
frontière nord n’est plus envisageable. Le gouvernement israélien ne cessera ses
actions que lorsque la situation à cette frontière aura changé drastiquement,
permettant le retour permanent et en toute sécurité des habitants du nord du
pays qui ont quitté la région depuis le début des affrontements.
L’issue de sortie: l’application stricte, en premier lieu, de la 1701, qui
stipule entre autres un désarmement du Hezbollah, avec la responsabilisation de
la Finul et du gouvernement libanais, qui ne s’est d’ailleurs jamais réellement
positionné sur le sujet. En second lieu, la résolution 1559, qui prévoit la
dissolution des milices au Liban, y compris le Hezbollah, devra être mise en
œuvre par le gouvernement libanais.
Aucune autre issue n’est envisageable, si ce n’est la continuation indéfinie des
combats jusqu’à ce que le Hezbollah se heurte à une "bitter end" (fin amère),
soit jusqu’à la neutralisation de ses capacités offensives.
Cet approfondissement est-il une simple démonstration de force ou bien le début
d’une nouvelle phase de la guerre?
Ni l’un, ni l’autre.
Les Israéliens n’ont pas besoin de démontrer leur force; c’est plutôt une
démonstration de la capacité des services de renseignement israéliens à
infiltrer les rangs du Hezbollah.
L’approfondissement des frappes vient dans le sillage des frappes qualitatives
dans la banlieue sud de Beyrouth, soit l’assassinat du responsable militaire du
Hezbollah Fouad Chokr et avant lui du numéro 2 du Hamas Saleh el-Arouri, ainsi
que dans la Békaa, soit à 80 km au nord de la frontière, sur des sites que peu
de gens soupçonnaient d’appartenir au Hezbollah, tels que des dépôts de
munitions et d’armement. Ce qui ne fait qu’alimenter les rumeurs faisant lieu de
défection au sein des rangs de hauts gradés du Hezbollah. Si cela était vrai, la
situation du Hezbollah serait critique, car cela signifierait qu’Israël aurait
gagné une guerre qui était essentiellement aujourd’hui comme une guerre de
renseignement.
Par ailleurs, l’approfondissement des opérations d’Israël au Liban n’est pas non
plus une nouvelle phase de la guerre, puisqu’il était prévisible et faisait donc
partie de l’évolution logique de la situation. Cet approfondissement n’a pas
l’effet d’une "surprise", car il s’inscrit dans une trajectoire d’événements
prévisibles allant vers une escalade de la violence et l’élargissement du
théâtre des opérations et de la confrontation.
Ce qui se passe aujourd’hui était prévisible dès que le Hezbollah a commencé ses
attaques contre Israël après le 7 octobre. Depuis, il était indéniable qu’Israël
frapperait dès qu’il détecterait des opportunités qui lui sont favorables, même
en dehors des zones implicitement coordonnées avec le Hezbollah, comme pour
l’assassinat de Fouad Chokr dans la banlieue sud de Beyrouth.
https://icibeyrouth.com/liban/377194
The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on August 22-23/2024
Israeli intelligence chiefs attend talks in Cairo as Gaza bombing continues
NEWS WIRES/© Omar al-Qattaa, AFP/ August 22, 2024
The heads of Israel's Mossad spy agency and Shin Bet domestic security service
were taking part in talks towards an eventual Gaza hostage agreement in Cairo on
Thursday, an Israeli government spokesman said. Meanwhile, the Israeli military
continued to bomb several locations in the Gaza strip, killing at least five
people, according to the Gaza civil defence agency. Israeli negotiators were
taking part Thursday in talks on Gaza in Cairo, a government spokesman said, as
fighting raged on the ground despite US pressure on Israel and Hamas to reach an
agreement. Hopes for a deal have dwindled though as Israel and Palestinian
militant group Hamas have traded blame for failing to reach a deal after more
than 10 months of war in the Gaza Strip. A main sticking point remains Hamas's
longstanding demand for a "complete" Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, which Prime
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has opposed. Netanyahu's spokesman Omer Dostri told
AFP that Mossad spy agency chief David Barnea and Ronen Bar, head of Israel's
Shin Bet domestic security service, were in the Egyptian capital and
"negotiating to advance a hostage (release) agreement". The war triggered by
Hamas's unprecedented October 7 attack on Israel has devastated Gaza, displaced
nearly all its population at least once and triggered a humanitarian crisis in
the besieged Palestinian territory.
"We are tired of displacement."
US envoy tells UN: Gaza ceasefire deal ‘now is in sight’
Reuters/August 22, 2024
UNITED NATIONS: A Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal “now is in sight,” the
US envoy to the United Nations told the Security Council on Thursday, urging
members to press Palestinian militant group Hamas to accept a bridging proposal
agreed to by Israel. Months of on-off talks have circled the same issues, but
Israel and Hamas have stuck to their demands. US Ambassador to the UN Linda
Thomas-Greenfield said a bridging proposal put forward last week by the US,
Qatar and Egypt was consistent with a plan outlined by President Joe Biden in
May and endorsed by the Security Council in June. “Israel has accepted the
bridging proposal. Now Hamas must do the same,” she told the council. “As
members of this council, we must speak with one voice, and we must use our
leverage to press Hamas to accept the bridging proposal.”Disagreements over
Israel’s future military presence in Gaza and over Palestinian prisoner releases
are obstructing a deal, sources familiar with talks told Reuters, stemming from
demands Israel has introduced since Hamas accepted Biden’s May proposal. “It’s a
decisive moment for ceasefire talks and for the region, and so every member of
this council should continue to send strong messages to other actors in the
region to avoid actions that would move us away from finalizing this deal,” said
Thomas-Greenfield. The conflict in Gaza put the entire Middle East region on
edge, triggering months of border clashes between Israel and Lebanon’s
Iran-backed Hezbollah movement, and threatening a wider escalation drawing in
major powers. Iran has also vowed retaliation over the killing of Hamas leader
Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31, which it blamed on Israel. Israel has
neither confirmed nor denied it was behind the killing. “There’s very real
danger of regional escalation,” Thomas-Greenfield said. “So let us do everything
in our power to get this ceasefire and hostage release deal over the finish line
now.” The current war in the Gaza Strip began on Oct. 7, 2023, when Hamas gunmen
stormed into Israeli communities, killing around 1,200 people and abducting
about 250 hostages, according to Israeli tallies.
Since then, Israel’s military has leveled swathes of the Palestinian enclave,
driving nearly all of its 2.3 million people from their homes, giving rise to
deadly hunger and disease and killing at least 40,000 people, according to
Palestinian health authorities.
Mediators meet in Cairo in effort to resolve gaps on Gaza
truce proposal
Reuters/ August 22, 2024
U.S. and Israeli delegations started a new round of meetings in Cairo on
Thursday aimed at resolving differences over a truce proposal to end more than
10 months of war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, two Egyptian security sources
said.Egyptian and U.S. officials had met to seek compromises over plans for
providing security on the border between Egypt and Gaza following an Israeli
military withdrawal demanded by Hamas, the sources said. The proposals were due
to be presented to Israeli officials later on Thursday, with a Qatari delegation
due to join on Friday, they added. Egypt along with the United States and Qatar
has been a mediator in months of stop-start negotiations to secure a ceasefire
in Gaza, as well as the release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners.
Israeli demands to keep troops deployed along the Netzarim Corridor, which cuts
across Gaza, as well as in a buffer zone between Gaza and Egypt known as the
Philadelphi Corridor, have emerged as the most significant obstacles to a deal.
Egypt as well as Hamas want Israel to withdraw from the Philadelphi Corridor,
where Israeli troops advanced in May. Israel says Hamas has used the area to
bring arms into Gaza. Egypt says it has shut off smuggling routes. The meetings
in Cairo on Thursday and Friday follow a trip to the region by U.S. Secretary of
State Antony Blinken that failed to produce a breakthrough in negotiations. The
war began on Oct. 7 when Hamas gunmen led an incursion into Israel, killing
around 1,200 people and abducting about 250 hostages, according to Israeli
tallies. More than 40,000 people have been killed in Gaza by Israel's response,
according to Palestinian health authorities. In Gaza on Thursday, Israeli tanks
pushed deeper into the coastal territory hours after U.S. President Joe Biden
pressed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on the urgency of completing a
ceasefire deal.
Israeli team in Cairo for hostage negotiations, Qatari
PM to head to Iran next week
Tovah Lazaroff/Jerusalem Post/August 22/2024
The Cairo trip comes amid debate about Netanyahu's firm stance that the IDF must
maintain a presence in the Philadelphi Corridor.
Updated: AUGUST 22, 2024 22:46 An Israeli team is in Cairo for negotiations on
the hostage deal, while the security cabinet met in Tel Aviv and Qatari Prime
Minister Mohammed Al Thani is expected to head to Iran early next week.
Thursday’s Cairo talks come amid a stiff debate about Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu’s firm stance that the IDF must maintain a presence in the Philadelphi
Corridor. He has stressed that he will not accept any hostage deal that calls
for Israel to withdraw from that corridor. Hamas in turn has insisted Israel
must fully withdraw from the corridor.
Philadelphi Corridor a significant factor in talks
The Prime Minister’s Office stressed that “Netanyahu insists on the principle
that Israel control the Philadelphi Corridor in order to prevent Hamas from
rearming itself, which would afford it the capability of repeating the
atrocities of October 7.” It also rejected a report that suggested a resolution
to the issue could be a “multi-national force along the Philadelphi
Corridor.”That corridor is considered to be a critical buffer zone between Egypt
and Gaza. Any plan for IDF troops to remain in that corridor would need
agreement from Egypt. Egypt and Qatar have been the main mediators for the deal
to secure the return of the remaining 109 hostages, with the help of the US. Al
Thani has been a critical part of the negotiations and was part of the Doha
talks that took place last week. Israel’s security cabinet met Thursday night in
advance of an expected high-level summit in Egypt over the weekend or early next
week on the hostages, as Israel remains braced for a retaliatory strike by Iran
and its proxy group Hezbollah. The US has hoped that a Gaza ceasefire and
hostage deal would thwart reprisal attacks by Iran and Hezbollah, which
Washington fears would spark a regional war.
Thursday’s Cairo talks were expected to seek resolutions on Philadelphi in
advance of the higher-level summit.US Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited
Israel, Egypt, and Qatar on Monday and Tuesday to set the ground for those
high-level talks, which the US has described as end-game negotiations.
US lead negotiator CIA Director Bill Burns, Mossad chief David Barnea, Al Thani,
and Egypt’s lead negotiator are expected to attend those high-level Cairo talks.
Former IDF chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot, now an MK in a high-level position in
the National Unity Party, told Army Radio that Netanyahu was treating the
Philadelphi as if it was the “Western Wall.” Netanyahu can afford to be flexible
on the issue and come up with long-term solutions later and focus instead now on
the hostages, whose lives are at risk on a daily basis, he said.
Russian Deputy Ambassador to the United Nations Dmitry A. Polyanskiy said
Thursday in New York that the UN Security Council should push a new Gaza hostage
and ceasefire deal. “Let’s pass a new document which would send an unequivocal
signal to the spoilers that what they are doing will not be allowed to happen
with impunity,” Polyanskiy told the UNSC as it held its monthly meeting on the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict. That resolution should have a “toolbox which could
help end violence, regardless of the whims displayed by any of the sides to the
conflict,” he said.
The UNSC in June had endorsed the Gaza deal US President Joe Biden had unveiled
on May 31, with Russia abstaining. Both Israel and Hamas accepted the framework
of that agreement but the US has struggled to bridge the gaps between the sides
with respect to its implementation.
Two weeks ago the US put forward a bridging proposal which Israel has accepted,
that appeared to leave open the debate on the Philadelphi Corridor. US
Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas Greenfield blamed Hamas for the impasse and
asked the UNSC to pressure Hamas to accept the proposal.
“Israel has accepted the bridging proposal. Now, Hamas must do the same,”
Thomas-Greenfield said. “As members of this council, we must speak with one
voice, and we must use our leverage to press Hamas to accept the bridging
proposal which includes massive and immediate benefits for the Palestinians in
Gaza and incorporates a number of Hamas’ earlier demands,” she stressed.
Polanskiy blamed Netanyahu and the US.
“We continue thinking it’s unacceptable that members of the Security Council in
June signed off on an obviously false statement in the American resolution,
where it said that Israel supposedly had already agreed to the proposed deal,”
Polyanskiy said. Israel “had no intention of stopping their military operation
in Gaza,” he said. Now the US is pushing an amended deal that suits Israel that
the UNSC never endorsed, he said. “According to the information we have, Israel
is now insisting on keeping the idea of military presence in Gaza, including
their control over the crossing with Egypt and the Philadelphi corridor,”
Polyanskiy explained. “We do note that such a change as to the parameters of the
deal is also something that some countries in the region are vehemently
objective,” he said. Thomas-Greenfield assured the council that the bridging
proposal was in line with the original document, as she pledged US support for
Israel’s security. “No one in the region should take any action that would
undermine ongoing negotiations,” Thomas-Greenfield said.“Colleagues, this is a
decisive moment. It’s a decisive moment for ceasefire talks and for the region.
And so, every member of this council should continue to send strong messages to
other actors in the region to avoid actions that would move us away from
finalizing this deal,” she stressed.
Late Wednesday night US President Joe Biden spoke with Netanyahu about the
urgency of reaching a hostage and ceasefire deal. “The President stressed the
urgency of bringing the ceasefire and hostage release deal to closure and
discussed upcoming talks in Cairo to remove any remaining obstacle,” the White
House said after the call, which included Vice President Kamala Harris.Biden and
Netanyahu, the White House said, “discussed active and ongoing US efforts to
support Israel’s defense against all threats from Iran, including its proxy
terrorist groups Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis, to include ongoing defensive
US military deployments.”
Reuters contributed to this report.
Key mediator Egypt expresses skepticism about Gaza
cease-fire proposal
Associated Press/August 22, 2024
Key mediator Egypt has expressed skepticism about the proposal meant to bridge
gaps in cease-fire talks between Israel and Hamas as more details emerged a day
before negotiations were expected to resume in Cairo. The challenges around the
so-called bridging proposal appeared to undermine the optimism for an imminent
agreement that U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken carried into his latest
Mideast visit this week. Diplomatic efforts have redoubled as fears grow of a
wider regional war after the recent targeted killings of leaders of the militant
Hamas and Hezbollah groups, both blamed on Israel, and threats of retaliation.
President Joe Biden spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on
Wednesday, and stressed the urgency of reaching a cease-fire and hostage release
deal, the White House said. Officials in Egypt, in its unique role as both a
mediator and affected party since it borders Gaza, told The Associated Press
that Hamas won't agree to the bridging proposal for a number of reasons — ones
in addition to the long-held wariness over whether a deal would truly remove
Israeli forces from Gaza and end the war.
One Egyptian official with direct knowledge of the negotiations said the
bridging proposal requires the implementation of the deal's first phase, which
has Hamas releasing the most vulnerable civilian hostages captured in its Oct. 7
attack on Israel that sparked the war. Parties during the first phase would
negotiate the second and third phases with no "guarantees" to Hamas from Israel
or mediators. "The Americans are offering promises, not guarantees," the
official said. "Hamas won't accept this, because it virtually means Hamas will
release the civilian hostages in return for a six-week pause of fighting with no
guarantees for a negotiated permanent cease-fire."He also said the proposal
doesn't clearly say Israel will withdraw its forces from two strategic corridors
in Gaza, the Philadelphi corridor alongside Gaza's border with Egypt and the
Netzarim east-west corridor across the territory. Israel offers to downsize its
forces in the Philadelphi corridor, with "promises" to withdraw from the area,
he said.
"This is not acceptable for us and of course for Hamas," the Egyptian official
said.
A second Egyptian official, briefed on the latest developments in negotiations,
said there were few chances for a breakthrough since Israel refuses to commit to
a complete withdrawal from Gaza in the deal's second phase. The official said
Israel also insists on keeping its forces in the Philadelphi corridor and having
full control of the Netzarim corridor. He also said Egypt told the United States
and Israel that it won't reopen the Rafah crossing into Gaza, a crucial entry
point for humanitarian aid, without the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces
from the Palestinian side and from the Philadelphi corridor — where Israel wants
to prevent Hamas from replenishing its arsenal through smuggling tunnels.
Israel's defense minister says over 150 such tunnels have been destroyed. Both
Egyptian officials spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the negotiations.
Mediators are scheduled to meet on Thursday and Friday in Cairo for more talks
on the proposal before submitting it officially to Hamas. Hamas political
official Bassem Naim said Tuesday that the bridging proposal adopted several new
demands from Netanyahu, including that Israeli forces remain in Rafah,
Philadelphi and Netzarim and search displaced Palestinians returning to northern
Gaza. Israel has said the searches are necessary to find militants. Naim said
the proposal also includes unspecified changes to the exchange of hostages held
in Gaza for Palestinians imprisoned in Israel and doesn't guarantee that a
cease-fire would remain in place during negotiations on the transition from the
deal's first phase to the second. In previous versions of the cease-fire plan,
the second phase would entail a permanent cease-fire, full withdrawal of Israeli
forces from Gaza and the release of remaining male hostages, both civilians and
soldiers. Blinken after his visit to Egypt and fellow mediator Qatar said the
bridging proposal is "very clear on the schedule and the locations of (Israeli
military) withdrawals from Gaza," but no details on either have emerged.
Blinken added that because Israel accepted the proposal, the focus turns to
doing everything possible to "get Hamas on board." Egypt's state-run Al-Ahram
daily reported that Blinken received a "clear Egyptian demand for the U.S. to
work towards a well-framed deal with clear deadlines and clear objectives to
encourage Hamas to sign."But there is skepticism, along with fatigue, among many
in Israel about Netanyahu's commitment to securing an agreement. "As long as the
entire group of professional negotiators believes that Netanyahu is scuttling a
deal, there won't be any confidence," commentator Nadav Eyal wrote in daily
newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth.
The war in Gaza, now in its 10th month, has caused widespread destruction and
forced the vast majority of Gaza's 2.3 million residents to flee their homes.
Aid groups fear the outbreak of polio and other diseases. The Oct. 7 attack by
Hamas and other militants killed some 1,200 people in Israel, mostly civilians.
Over 100 hostages were released during last year's cease-fire. Hamas is still
believed to be holding around 110 hostages. Israeli authorities estimate around
a third are dead. Six bodies of hostages were recovered this week in Gaza.
"In what world do families have to beg and cry for the return of their family
members alive and murdered?" Esther Buchshtab, the mother of one, 35-year-old
Yagev Buchshtab, asked at his funeral Wednesday.Israel's retaliatory offensive
has killed over 40,000 Palestinians, according to Gaza's Health Ministry, which
does not distinguish between civilians and combatants in its count. On
Wednesday, Israeli tank and drone strikes in Khan Younis and Deir al-Balah
killed at least 17 people, according to hospital staff and AP journalists who
counted the bodies. Also on Wednesday, Netanyahu made his first visit to
northern Israel since Israel's killing of a top Hezbollah commander last month
in Beirut, as focus returns to the increasing crossfire along Israel's border
with Lebanon. "We are ready for every scenario, both defensive and offensive,"
he said while meeting troops.
Biden speaks with Netanyahu as US prods Israel and Hamas to
agree on cease-fire
Associated Press/August 22, 2024
President Joe Biden has spoken with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as
the United States presses Israel and Hamas to agree to a "bridging proposal"
that could lead to a cease-fire in the war in Gaza. Hamas and Israel have
signaled that challenges remain amid significant differences over the presence
of Israeli troops in two strategic corridors in Gaza and other issues, dimming
Biden's hopes that a deal can soon be reached. Vice President Kamala Harris, who
is in Chicago this week to accept her party's nomination at the Democratic
National Convention, also joined the call.
Biden "stressed the urgency of bringing the ceasefire and hostage release deal
to closure," the White House said in a statement. The two leaders also discussed
using high-level talks in Cairo this week between mediators from the U.S.,
Israel, Egypt and Qatar to work through "remaining obstacles" to an agreement.
But hope that a deal can be completed, at least in the near term, appears to be
diminishing. The president on Friday said he was "optimistic" that an agreement
could be reached after he spoke by phone with Qatar's emir, Sheikh Tamim bin
Hamad al Thani, and Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi, whose countries
are key interlocutors with Hamas. But by Tuesday, Biden was notably more muted
about the prospects of the two sides coming to an agreement soon. He told
reporters after delivering an address at the Democratic convention that "Hamas
was now backing off," but that the U.S. is "going to keep pushing" to land a
cease-fire deal. The president spoke with the Israeli prime minister on
Wednesday from Santa Ynez, Calif., where he's vacationing with his family at the
8,000-acre property of the medical technology mogul and Democratic donor Joe
Kiani. The White House said Biden and Netanyahu discussed escalating tensions
between Israel and Iran, and with militant groups — Hamas, Hezbollah, and the
Houthis — that are backed by Tehran. The call came after Secretary of State
Antony Blinken met this week with officials in Israel, Egypt, and Qatar and
ahead of the new round of talks in Cairo later this week.
"This is a decisive moment, probably the best, maybe the last opportunity to get
the hostages home, to get a ceasefire, and to put everyone on a better path to
enduring peace and security," Blinken said after meeting with Netanyahu and
Israeli President Isaac Herzog in Tel Aviv on Monday. Officials in Egypt told
The Associated Press on Wednesday that Hamas won't agree to the bridging
proposal for a number of reasons — ones in addition to the long-held wariness
over whether a deal would truly remove Israeli forces from Gaza and end the war.
One Egyptian official, with direct knowledge of the negotiations who requested
anonymity to discuss the sensitive matter, said the bridging proposal requires
the implementation of the deal's first phase, which has Hamas releasing the most
vulnerable civilian hostages captured in its Oct. 7 attack on Israel that
sparked the war. Parties during the first phase would negotiate the second and
third phases with no "guarantees" to Hamas from Israel or mediators. The
official said the proposal doesn't clearly say Israel will withdraw its forces
from two strategic corridors in Gaza, the Philadelphi corridor alongside Gaza's
border with Egypt and the Netzarim east-west corridor across the territory.
Israel offers to downsize its forces in the Philadelphi corridor, with
"promises" to withdraw from the area, the official said. Hamas is seeking a
complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, including the Philadelphi Corridor, a
narrow 14.5-km-long (nine-mile) stretch of land along the coastal enclave's
southern border with Egypt.Netanyahu met earlier this week with right-wing
groups of families of fallen soldiers and hostages in Gaza. The groups, which
oppose a cease-fire deal, said he told them Israel will not abandon the two
strategic corridors in Gaza. Netanyahu's office did not comment on the groups'
accounts. Blinken after his visit to Egypt and Qatar said the bridging proposal
is "very clear on the schedule and the locations of (Israeli military)
withdrawals from Gaza," but no details on either have emerged.
Biden tells Netanyahu Gaza ceasefire deal is urgent
Tom Bennett - BBC News/August 22, 2024
US President Joe Biden has “stressed the urgency” of reaching a Gaza ceasefire
and hostage release deal to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the White
House has said. In a call on Wednesday, which was also joined by Vice President
Kamala Harris, Mr Biden is said to have stated the importance of removing “any
remaining obstacles” blocking an agreement with Hamas. He also reaffirmed
Washington’s commitment to help defend Israel against what the White House
called "all threats from Iran, including its proxy terrorist groups Hamas,
Hezbollah, and the Houthis". It came after the US secretary of state wrapped up
a diplomatic tour of the Middle East, pushing for a deal that could end the war.
The office of Mr Netanyahu reiterated on Wednesday that Israel planned to keep
troops in a strip of land along the border between Gaza and Egypt - known as the
Philadelphi Corridor - in the event of any such deal.“Israel will insist on the
achievement of all of its objectives for the war, as they have been defined by
the security cabinet, including that Gaza never again constitutes a security
threat to Israel. This requires securing the southern border,” a statement said.
The issue has become a key sticking point - with Hamas so far insisting on a
total withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza. Egypt also opposes the presence of
Israeli troops along its border with Gaza. On Monday, US Secretary of State
Antony Blinken said Israel had agreed to a “US bridging proposal”, after a
three-hour meeting with Mr Netanyahu in Jerusalem. Mr Blinken would not confirm
to the BBC whether the US proposal stipulated the withdrawal of Israeli troops
from the Philadelphi corridor, but Mr Netanyahu’s repeated public insistence on
the plan appears to have irritated Washington. A US official accused the prime
minister of making “maximalist statements” that were “not constructive to
getting a ceasefire deal across the finish line”. A new round of ceasefire talks
is set to take place in Cairo this weekend, with US, Israeli, Egyptian and
Qatari representatives in attendance. Hamas has so far not said they will
attend, but it is believed they are continuing to receive updates on the
negotiations from Egyptian and Qatari mediators. A member of the Hamas political
bureau told the BBC on Monday that the group had “agreed a deal [through
mediators] on 2 July” and therefore “don't need a new round of negotiations or
to discuss the new demands of Benjamin Netanyahu”. “We have shown maximum
flexibility and positivity,” Basem Naim said. He claimed that Mr Netanyahu was
“not interested in reaching a ceasefire, only in flaring up the region... and
serving his own personal political interests".Netanyahu putting politics before
Gaza deal, dead hostage's daughter says. Hezbollah rockets hit Golan Heights
after Israel strikes deep in Lebanon. In Gaza on Wednesday, at least 50
Palestinians were killed by Israeli air strikes, Hamas-run health authorities
said.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said it hit around 30 targets across the
territory, including tunnels, launch sites and an observation post. The targets
included the UN-run Salah al-Din school in Gaza City, which the IDF said was
used by “Hamas operatives” as a “hideout”. The strike killed at least four
people and wounded 15, the Hamas-run Civil Defence service said. Philippe
Lazzarini, head of the UN's Palestinian refugee agency, said that children were
killed in the strike and some were “burnt to death". "Gaza is no place for
children anymore. They are the first casualty of this merciless war," he said,
adding that “a ceasefire is beyond overdue". Israel launched a military campaign
in Gaza in response to an unprecedented attack on southern Israel on 7 October
by Hamas gunmen, during which about 1,200 people were killed and 251 taken
hostage. More than 40,223 people have been killed in Gaza since then, according
to the territory's Hamas-run health ministry, which does not give details of
civilian and combatant deaths. The UN human rights office says most of those
killed were women and children. Israel and Lebanon's Hezbollah movement also
exchanged fire on Wednesday, with Israel saying it hit a Hezbollah weapons
storage facility in the Bekaa Valley overnight. The Lebanese health ministry
said one person was killed and 30 others injured. In response, Hezbollah, which
is backed by Iran, said it targeted Israeli military positions in the Golan
Heights with a rocket barrage. Israeli authorities said two homes were hit and
one person was injured.
Bullets found in bodies of Israeli hostages retrieved from Gaza, hostage
families forum says
Reuters/August 22, 2024
JERUSALEM (Reuters) - Bullets were found in the bodies of the six Israeli
hostages retrieved from Gaza this week, the Hostage Families Forum campaign
group said on Thursday, citing recent autopsy reports. The comments came a day
after U.S. President Joe Biden pressed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
on the urgency of sealing a deal for a truce between Israel and Hamas in Gaza
and release of hostages held by Palestinian militants there. A total of 109
hostages are believed to remain in Gaza. About a third of them are thought to be
dead, with the fate of the others unknown. "In every minute that the deal is not
completed, another hostage could lose their life. It is clear to all that the
return of the hostages is only possible through a deal," the campaign group
said. It said the recovery of six hostage bodies was no achievement but rather a
testament to the government's failure to reach a deal on time and return the
hostages alive. Internationally mediated ceasefire talks resumed in Cairo
earlier on Thursday. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken left the region on
Tuesday without producing a breakthrough to end the 10-month-old war. Months of
on-off ceasefire talks have circled the same issues, but Israel and the
Palestinian militant group Hamas have stuck firmly to their demands. Most of
Israel's hostages were seized by Hamas gunmen who rampaged through southern
Israel on Oct. 7, killing some 1,200 Israelis and foreigners and abducting
around 250 as hostages. Since Oct. 7, Israel's military has levelled Gaza,
driving nearly all of its inhabitants from their homes and killing at least
40,000, according to Palestinian health authorities. Israel says it has killed
some 17,000 militants.
Shin Bet chief to Netanyahu: Jewish terror in West Bank
on brink of disaster
Jerusalem Post/August 22/2024
He accused National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and other coalition
members of sometimes indirectly and sometimes almost explicitly encouraging the
phenomenon. Shin Bet Director Ronen Bar on Thursday sent a letter to Prime
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warning that recent Jewish terror actions, such as
the massive attack on the northern West Bank Palestinian village of Jit, have
put the country on the brink of disaster, said a Channel 12 report. He accused
National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and other coalition members of
sometimes indirectly and sometimes almost explicitly encouraging the phenomenon,
including with Ben Gvir's recent visit to the Temple Mount, which led to large
numbers of Jews praying openly in violation of the government's status quo
policy. Next, he said that it was inadequate to call the current Jewish violence
"nationalistic crimes" but that it must be called Jewish terror, especially
because the goal is to enforce broad oppression over another minority group, and
the attackers are not a minority taking small shots at the majority.
Moreover, he said he was writing Netanyahu and other top officials out of deep
concern as a Jew, an Israeli, and a security official.
Bar said that if in the past Jewish extremists would commit violence against
Palestinians clandestinely and using makeshift weapons, now they attack openly
in dozens or larger numbers, including using lethal weapons. The Shin Bet
director added that in some instances, those perpetrating the violence received
their weapons from the government as part of programs to expand the availability
of guns to West Bank Jews after October 7.
No more deterrence
Also, he said that Jewish extremists are no longer afraid of administrative
detention because they expect that coalition allies will get them released and
then pay them money (much the way Palestinians sometimes pay violent convicts).
According to Bar, this process is harming the fabric of Israeli society
domestically and endangering support for the Jewish state globally, even among
its allies. Further, he said that the IDF is not trained or equipped to handle
the size and scope of the expanding Jewish terror phenomenon. Following this
letter, Ben-Gvir demanded Bar's dismissal while attending a cabinet meeting on
Thursday night. After making the deman, Ben-Gvir abruptly left the meeting.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other government ministers reportedly
defended Bar, while Ben-Gvir claimed that Bar was responsible for security
failures on Oct. 7 and attacked Bar's letter.
There are no longer places to go’: Thousands
in Gaza forced to flee again after Israeli evacuation orders
Abeer Salman, Paul Murphy and Tim Lister, CNN/August 22, 2024
Thousands of Palestinians in Gaza are having to flee yet again after the Israeli
military issued new evacuation orders – which experts warn are encroaching
further on aid routes and humanitarian zones. People were seen in video walking
or on donkey carts as they left areas near the central Gazan city of Deir al-Balah.
Some were in private cars, loaded with their belongings, including mattresses
and blankets, water and gas bottles. The streets appear littered with leaflets
dropped by the IDF reiterating the order to evacuate. The Israel Defense Forces
(IDF) have also ordered evacuations for parts of the southern city of Khan
Younis, as well as the Al-Maghazi refugee camp in central Gaza. Many residents
now on the move have had to evacuate time and time again – leaving them in a
constant state of displacement, uncertainty and fear that there is nowhere left
to flee.Evacuees leaving Deir al-Balah on Wednesday described the overwhelming
sense of fear, sorrow and uncertainty. “There is bombardment, shooting, and
quadcopters since this morning in the east of Deir al-Balah, so we are forced to
flee. People go to the unknown. They have no idea,” said one evacuee, Muhammad
Awad.
“There are no longer places to go. There was only Deir al-Balah, and now they
are asking us to evacuate Deir al-Balah,” one elderly man told CNN. “I am afraid
that tomorrow they will confine all of us on the seashore of Deir al-Balah, then
exterminate all of us.”“After so many displacements, we no longer have the
strength to evacuate yet another time,” he added. One woman on a cart, Um Alaa,
said it was the fourth time she has had to evacuate since October last year. “We
don’t know where to go. We are going to look for a spot away from this dangerous
place,” she said. “The whole of Gaza has become dangerous.”Um Ismail, a woman
with small children, said people were defenseless. “Why are they fighting us?”
she said. “We are not Hamas, we are simply people staying put in our homes. They
displaced us not once, but 10 times. Why? What have we done?” Abu Muhammad
Hajjaj, a resident of Gaza City who had previously been displaced, lamented the
lack of resources. Without money for a car, or even a tent to live in, “we don’t
know where to go,” he told CNN. “People are crying and complaining of
everything: disease, hunger, poverty, lack of hygiene, lack of medicine. You
search in all of Gaza for paracetamol for a headache and you can’t find it,” he
said.
Steadily shrinking
Nearly 84% of the enclave has been placed under evacuation orders since the
start of the war, according to the United Nations’ main agency for Palestinian
humanitarian relief, UNWRA. All the while, the Israel-designated “humanitarian
zone” has been steadily shrinking. In the past month alone, the IDF has reduced
this zone by 38% – with the remaining space making up just over a tenth of
Gaza’s total area, according to a CNN analysis. “Areas that were (in) the
humanitarian zone are now the frontline,” said Louise Wateridge, spokesperson
for UNWRA. Gazans “are never more than a few blocks away from the frontline
now,” she told the UN’s news service. The evacuation orders have complicated aid
efforts, too. The UN’s humanitarian agency OCHA reported that parts of a major
road, crucial for humanitarian missions going from south to north, were caught
up in the evacuations for Deir al-Balah.
It is now “nearly impossible” for aid workers to travel along the route,
preventing the delivery of critically needed supplies, the UN reported. Among
those fleeing are staff from the international non-profit Médecins Sans
Frontières (MSF), also known as Doctors Without Borders. “The continuous forced
displacement of people is inhumane,” MSF project coordinator Jacob Granger said
in a statement on Wednesday. “People have no belongings left, nowhere left to
go. There is no room to put tents up. The overcrowding, severe lack of water,
and minimal sanitation services are fueling the spread of diseases.”
The UN estimated in July that up to 1.9 million people in the strip have been
displaced, almost the entire population of 2.1 million Gazans. Last week, the
enclave’s Health Ministry estimated that more than 40,000 Palestinians have been
killed in Gaza since Israel launched its war on Hamas. That figure does not
distinguish between combatants and civilians, but the ministry said most of the
dead are women and children. Israel said last month that it had killed more than
17,000 combatants in Gaza since the start of the war. CNN cannot independently
verify the ministry’s numbers.
Ceasefire talks
Throughout the evacuations, US and Israeli leaders have continued discussing a
potential ceasefire and hostage release deal – with President Joe Biden speaking
with his Israeli counterpart Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday, the
White House said. It comes at a critical moment after US Secretary of State
Antony Blinken said earlier this week that it may be the last opportunity for a
deal. CIA Director Bill Burns and other senior negotiators are expected to
return to Cairo for further high-level talks this weekend. A major sticking
point is the future of the Philadelphi corridor in southern Gaza – a
14-kilometer (8.7-mile) strip of land along the Egypt-Gaza border, which the IDF
currently controls. On Tuesday, Blinken said Israel had agreed to military
withdrawals from Gaza that are laid out in the recent proposal, despite reported
comments from Netanyahu. Blinken was responding to Israeli media reports that
Netanyahu conveyed to America’s top diplomat that Israel would not leave the
Philadelphi corridor and the Netzarim corridor, which bisects Gaza, “regardless
of the pressure to do so.”
This story has been updated with additional information.
Freelance journalist Mohammad Al Sawalhi contributed to this report from Gaza.
Israel military court extends house arrest of soldiers
accused of Palestinian prisoner abuse
Reuters/August 22, 2024
JERUSALEM: Israel’s military court has extended the house arrest of soldiers
accused of sexually abusing a Palestinian detainee until Sept. 4 but will allow
the defense to hold a hearing on Sunday to request an alternative to detention,
the military said on Thursday. It specified such an alternative could include ‘a
place of work and suitable supervisors’.The soldiers have been accused of
sexually abusing a member of an elite Hamas unit at the Sde Teiman detention
facility in the Negev desert in southern Israel, according to Israeli press
reports. The United Nations special rapporteur on torture has said the alleged
sexual abuse case is “particularly gruesome” and called on Israel’s civilian
courts to investigate and hold the perpetrators to account. The UN has received
multiple reports of alleged torture against Palestinians detained since Oct. 7,
2023, when Hamas-led militants stormed Israel in a shock assault that killed
some 1,200 people. More than 40,000 people have been killed in Gaza in the 10
months of fighting that have followed, according to health officials in the
Palestinian enclave.
Israeli police arrest four suspected over settler attack
on Palestinian village
Reuters/August 22, 2024
Israeli police arrested four people suspected of taking part in a violent attack
by Jewish settlers on the Palestinian village of Jit in the occupied West Bank,
during which one Palestinian was killed, authorities said on Thursday. The Aug.
15 attack by dozens of settlers armed with guns and Molotov cocktails, drew
unusual condemnation from Israeli leaders, including Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu, who promised a swift investigation. "This was a severe terror event
that included setting fire to buildings and vehicles, stone and molotov-cocktail
hurling, as well as live fire, resulting in the killing of one Palestinian and
the injuring of another," a statement by the police and the domestic security
agency said. The increasing incidence of settler violence against Palestinians
in the West Bank since the start of the Gaza war has drawn broad condemnation
internationally, including from allies of Israel such as the United States.
Palestinians and rights groups regularly accuse Israeli forces of standing by
while attacks by Jewish settlers against Palestinians take place and say the
violence almost never results in prosecutions. The United States and a number of
European countries have imposed sanctions on violent settlers and called
repeatedly on Israel to do more to curb the attacks.The Israeli authorities said
the four arrested included three adults and a minor who were suspected of
several acts of terrorism against Palestinians. The investigation was
continuing, the statement said.
The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources
on August 22-23/2024
America’s Iran policy is a failure − piecemeal
deterrence and sanctions can go only so far
Arie Perliger, UMass Lowell/The Conversation/August 22/2024
The escalating conflict between Israel and Iran in recent months is frequently
explained as another extension of Israel’s war on Hamas in Gaza. After all,
Hamas enjoys a close relationship with Iran, and both share the goal of
eliminating the Jewish state.
But there’s more to it than that.
As a scholar of security studies who has researched conflicts in the Middle East
for over 20 years, I would argue that a decade of U.S. foreign policy in the
region has failed to contain Iran’s ambitions and has instead substantially
contributed to the current escalation.
As is clear from recent events along Israel’s northern border, Washington’s
ability to project power and manage American interests in the Mideast has eroded
so dramatically since 2010 that Iran has only limited concerns about the
consequences of its proxies attacking U.S. forces and directly attacking U.S.
allies such as Israel.
Iranian victories
The government of Iran, a Shia Muslim nation in a Sunni Muslim region, expands
its regional influence by funding and militarily supporting violent proxy
organizations in neighboring countries. Those groups, in turn, attack and
destabilize those nations.
Over the past decade, this canny strategy has turned Iran arguably into the
Mideast’s most influential superpower.
Until the early 2010s, Iran’s only real foothold in the region was Hezbollah,
the Shia political and military group it fostered in Lebanon in the early 1980s.
Today, Iran’s alliances include the Houthi rebels in Yemen and a loyal network
of Shia militias in Iraq. In Syria, President Bashar al-Assad has allowed Iran’s
elite fighting force, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard, to build a massive
military presence.
Since Oct. 7, 2023, when Hamas invaded Israel, triggering the Gaza war, these
groups have directly attacked Israel, American military bases and U.S. civilian
assets in the region over 170 times. The political and military sovereignty of
Syria, Yemen, Lebanon and Iraq has so eroded that some American officials
consider them Iran’s puppet regimes.
Over the same period, Iran’s military nuclear program has reached its most
advanced stage. In July 2024, six years after the Trump administration backed
out of the international nuclear deal meant to slow the development of Iranian
weapons, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned that Iran was weeks from
being able to equip its vast and growing arsenal of ballistic missiles with
nuclear warheads.
Misconceptions, containment and oversimplified diplomacy
Despite Iran’s many recent military and political advances over the past decade,
the American government has consistently underestimated its ambitions of
regional dominance. Simultaneously, in my assessment, it has overvalued the
effectiveness of long-standing U.S. “soft power” policies toward Iran:
containment and de-escalation.
To avoid escalating conflict in the Mideast, Washington prioritizes actions that
will avoid, at almost any cost, any military confrontation with Iran. Instead,
to contain Iran’s expanding regional influence, the U.S. has banned arms sales
and technology to Iran, imposed stringent economic sanctions, frozen Iranian
financial assets and diplomatically isolated its government.
Yet, Iran’s influence continues to expand. In my assessment, this indicates that
containment and de-escalation cannot deter a regime whose core policies are
driven by fundamentalist ideology. Iran’s leaders invoke religious convictions
to justify their commitment to violent struggle, regional superiority and the
destruction of Israel.
“Allah willing, there will be no such thing as a Zionist regime in 25 years,”
said Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in 2015, calling the fight to
annihilate Israel a matter of “jihadi morale.”
I consider diplomacy, negotiation and legal and economic punishments preferable
solutions for most global conflicts. Yet modern history shows that these
measures cannot force policy change on nondemocratic, fundamentalist regimes
that flout the rules of global international relations – think Nazi Germany,
North Korea and the Afghan Taliban regime.
How not to deal with proxies
My scholarship on terrorist groups suggests that the U.S. has erred in its
handling of Iran’s proxies, too. Rather than addressing them together as part of
a hostile network, the U.S. treats each proxy as an isolated actor operating in
a specific place and seeks to contain or de-escalate that particular threat.
In Yemen, for example, the U.S. did not stop the Iran-backed Houthi rebels from
seizing territory and essentially supplanting the government. The Biden
administration even pressured U.S. ally Saudi Arabia in 2021 to stop militarily
boosting the country’s legitimate leaders in their bloody fight to retain power.
After the Gaza war began, the Houthis, doing Iran’s bidding, began lobbing
dozens of missiles at Western-flagged ships in the Red Sea.
Only in early 2024 did the U.S. confront the Houthis, making retaliatory
military strikes on Houthi bases in Yemen.
In Iraq, the U.S. was long willing to overlook that Iran was backing the Iraqi
Shia militias battling the Islamic State group, as long as these forces
continued to participate in the war on the Islamic State. Ignoring the long-term
consequences of their growing strength has come at a cost: In the past year,
those Iraqi militias have attacked numerous American military bases in the
region.
And in Syria, despite Iran’s rising influence in the aftermath of the Syrian
civil war, the U.S. has gradually reduced its support for anti-Assad rebels and
pro-democracy Kurdish forces.
A protest in Tehran following Israel’s suspected assassination of Hamas leader
Ismail Haniyeh at a guesthouse in Iran on July 31, 2024. Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto
via Getty Images
Collapse of American deterrence
All these failed foreign policies have culminated in the collapse of American
deterrence in the Middle East. Simply put, the U.S. no longer projects enough
power there to stop Iranian hostilities.
In April 2024, after Israel killed high-ranking officials in Iran’s embassy
complex in Syria, Iran launched one of the largest missile attacks in history,
lobbing over 300 missiles at Israel – its first-ever direct attack on Israel.
Yet it has suffered marginal consequences, mainly economic sanctions and
diplomatic outcry.
The U.S., which rallied Israel’s allies across the Mideast to shoot down most of
the Iranian missiles, again preferred to block a meaningful response. The Biden
administration declared the fact that few missiles hit Israel to be a “win” and
insisted that the U.S. would not join Israel in any retaliation against Iran.
America’s deep aversion to escalation was further exposed after the targeted
killings of top Hezbollah and Hamas leaders. In late July 2024, Hezbollah
commander Fuad Shukr was killed in an Israeli airstrike in Beirut, Lebanon, and
Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed in a bombing at a government guesthouse
in Iran. Iran blamed Israel for Haniyeh’s killing; The New York Times reported
that assessment was “also reached by several U.S. officials who requested
anonymity.”
Iran immediately vowed to retaliate.
For months, the U.S. had pressured Israel to adopt more precision-based military
operations to avoid further civilian casualties in the Gaza war, which had
killed nearly 40,000 people in its first six months. Yet when Israel apparently
finally did that, eliminating specific terrorists responsible for killing
Israelis and Americans, American policymakers fretted that such cross-border
attacks could lead to regional escalation.
If the U.S. seeks to achieve long-term peace in the Middle East, it must first
acknowledge the failures of the past decade. The evidence backs my conclusion
that Iran is an enemy that cannot simply be deterred, contained or de-escalated.
**This article is republished from The Conversation, a nonprofit, independent
news organization bringing you facts and trustworthy analysis to help you make
sense of our complex world. It was written by: Arie Perliger, UMass Lowell
America’s ‘self-defeat’ in
Afghanistan...Three years after the U.S. withdrawal, lessons should have been
learned
Clifford D. May/ The Washington Times
When World War II ended – not in a “ceasefire” or a “responsible exit strategy”
or a “peace deal” but with the unconditional surrender of America’s enemies –
the United States determined to create a new world order.
That required the transformation of Nazi Germany, Fascist Italy, and Imperial
Japan into free and friendly nation-states.
And that, in turn, required leaving American troops on their soil. They are
still there. Given the aggressiveness of post-Soviet Russia and Communist China,
their continuing presence is as essential as ever.
In 2003, President George W. Bush toppled Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein. The
justice of that regime change is beyond question. Its strategic wisdom, I will
not relitigate today. I will argue that President Barack Obama’s withdrawal of
all U.S. forces from Iraq in 2011 was a terrible mistake.
Members of Mr. Obama’s security cabinet had urged him to maintain a residual
force to mount missions against both Sunni and Tehran-backed Shia terrorist
groups, and to provide what George Shultz called “the shadow of power” for
American diplomats serving as honest brokers to Iraq’s fractious religious and
ethnic factions.
Then-Vice President Biden, however, was gung-ho about the bugout. Sent to Iraq
to oversee it, he told Mr. Obama: “Thank you for giving me the chance to end
this goddamn war!”
You know what happened next: Al Qaeda in Iraq morphed into ISIS and Shia
militias loyal to the jihadi regime in Tehran were emboldened and empowered.
Less than three years later, Mr. Obama had to send American troops back to Iraq
to battle ISIS which had conquered a territory the size of Britain.
Iran’s rulers went on to fund and arm terrorist militias in Iraq, Syria,
Lebanon, Yemen, Gaza, and the West Bank. President Biden entered the White House
bound and determined to repeat in Afghanistan the policy that had failed in
Iraq. He looked forward to delivering, on the 20th anniversary of the 9/11
attacks, a speech congratulating himself for ending an “endless war.”
In fact, by February 2021, there were fewer than 2,500 U.S. troops in
Afghanistan, and their mission was not combat but, since 2014, only
anti-terrorist operations against al-Qaeda, along with training, assisting, and
advising Afghan security forces battling the Taliban. About 8,000 NATO troops
were providing additional support.
In June, Mr. Biden met with Afghan President Ashraf Ghani and told him: “The
senseless violence has to stop.” He added: “But we’re gonna stick with you. And
we’re gonna do our best to see to it you have the tools you need.”
What happened next was predictable and predicted (including by yours truly).
On August 15, 2021, Kabul fell to the Taliban.
On August 26, amid a chaotic American evacuation from the capital, a suicide
bomber killed at least 170 Afghan civilians and 13 members of the U.S. military
– the first Americans killed in action since February 2020, and the single
largest loss of life of U.S. military personnel since 2011. The local branch of
the Islamic State (ISIS-K) claimed responsibility. The last American troops
departed Afghanistan on August 30, leaving behind billions of dollars’ worth of
Humvees, helicopters, and munitions, much of which the Taliban paraded last week
as they celebrated the third anniversary since the American capitulation and
their swift return to power.
Last year, the Biden administration released a short report defending the
Afghanistan pullout. It stated, correctly, that Mr. Biden had inherited an
ill-advised deal made with the Taliban by President Trump. It asserted,
incorrectly, that Mr. Biden’s hands were therefore tied.
In truth, the deal was conditions-based, the Taliban was not fulfilling its
obligations, and Mr. Biden had been reversing Mr. Trump’s policies since “day
one” in the Oval Office.
Had lessons been learned from Iraq, a residual force of American and NATO troops
would have stayed in Afghanistan to conduct counterterrorism operations, collect
intelligence, and better enable Afghan security forces.
Those forces would have continued to confine the Taliban to remote rural areas,
preventing them from controlling urban centers. Kabul could have remained what
it had become since the U.S. intervention: a city where a new generation of
Afghans were coming of age, women prominent among them, studying and working in
relative safety and freedom. The U.S. also had developed a major asset: Bagram
Air Base. In the Indo-Pacific, a region teeming with terrorist groups, gathering
intelligence only from “over the horizon” is a mug’s game.
And just east of Afghanistan lies a country with which the U.S has serious
national security concerns: the People’s Republic of China. It’s true that,
under both Republican and Democratic administrations, the U.S. did not fight the
war in Afghanistan strategically. As Gen. H.R. McMaster (who now chairs the
military center at my think tank) succinctly put it: “Persistent declarations of
withdrawal across three administrations emboldened our enemies, sowed doubts
among our allies, encouraged hedging behavior, perpetuated corruption, and
weakened state institutions.”
The result was what he calls “self-defeat” which soon brought consequences
elsewhere.
One year later, Vladimir Putin sent tanks and troops to conquer Ukraine.
Two years later, Hamas, a proxy of Tehran, invaded Israel and carried out a
barbarous pogrom, followed within 24 hours by Hezbollah, Tehran’s Lebanon-based
foreign legion, rocketing communities in northern Israel. These wars are ongoing
with those who speak for President Biden repeating, like a mantra, that they
oppose “escalation,” and seek “ceasefires” and “responsible exit strategies” and
“peace deals.”
America’s enemies get that and regard it as weakness which fuels their
aggression along with their never-ending demands for concessions. By now this
lesson has been learned by all but the determinedly self-deluded. But that’s a
significant and influential cohort in what is called – more hopefully than
accurately – the “Washington foreign policy community.”
**Clifford D. May is founder and president of the Foundation for Defense of
Democracies (FDD) and a columnist for the Washington Times.
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2024/aug/20/americas-self-defeat-in-afghanistan/
From “harsh punishment” to “tactical retreat”—time isn’t on
Tehran’s side
Janatan Sayeh/FDD Long War Journal/August 22/2024
The Islamic Republic has scaled back its rhetoric against Israel and pivoted
away from “hard revenge,” instead shifting to “strategic ambiguity.” Tehran
believes time is on its side, and its retaliation against Israel for the killing
of Hamas Political Chief Ismail Haniyeh need not be imminent. However,
developments on the ground suggest otherwise.
While numerous high-ranking regime officials vowed to avenge Haniyeh in late
July, Tehran is yet to follow through with these threats. In contrast, Iran
responded within 12 days after Israel targeted key Islamic Revolutionary Guard
Corps (IRGC) figures in Damascus. Tehran has evidently adopted a different
approach from its response in April and seems unlikely to retaliate the same
way.
On August 20, The Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) reported on the regime’s
revised approach of “strategic ambiguity” against Israel that has caused an
unprecedented state of alert in Israel and the region “without firing a bullet.”
On the same day, IRGC Spokesperson Brigadier General Ali Mohammad Naeini stated
that “time is on our side and the response [to Israel] may take long. For now,
Zionists must endure an astatic state.”
The statements from IRNA and the IRGC echo remarks made by Islamic Republic
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei a week prior: “Sometimes a retreat is tactical;
retreating is a tactic just like advancing.” Khamenei has a history of using
innovative phrases to justify the regime’s inability to meaningfully follow
through with its threats, such as “heroic flexibility” and “strategic patience.”
Employing these terms often indicates that the regime is holding back from
escalating tensions with its enemies but still aims to protect its reputation in
the eyes of its supporters inside Iran and across the region.
Khamenei’s latest speech suggests that his regime is recalculating its response
to the humiliating assassination of Haniyah in Tehran by hoping for increased
international pressure on Israel. On the diplomatic front, Islamic Republic
Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Nasser Kanaani accused Israel of not being
interested in establishing a ceasefire in Gaza and called for a collective
effort to pressure Jerusalem. In another attempt at rallying support against
Israel, Iranian state TV aired a dramatized video in early August that depicted
an Israeli Olympic athlete with bloodied hands being confronted by other
athletes.
The Iranian regime’s reluctance to wage another large-scale attack against
Israel is perhaps due to deterrence from the West and a lack of support from the
East. The United States firmly asserted that if Tehran were to retaliate by
conducting a major attack, Iran’s “government and economy could suffer a
devastating blow.” The US Department of State also stated that it has been
sending consistent messages to Tehran that the US will defend Israel from
Iranian attacks. Additionally, Israel anticipates that the United Kingdom and
France will support it in undertaking military measures if the Islamic Republic
carries out its threatened retaliation.
Simultaneously, the Islamic Republic did not receive meaningful diplomatic
support from Moscow and Beijing after Haniyah’s assassination. Russian President
Vladimir Putin allegedly asked Khamenei for a “restrained response” to Israel,
as opposed to condemning the assassination. Similarly, China Ministry of Foreign
Affairs Spokesperson Lin Jian indirectly discouraged Tehran from retaliating by
stating, “It is critical for the international community to enable
de-escalation. China remains committed to keeping the Middle East peaceful and
stable.”
Whether a patient approach is truly favorable to Tehran’s objectives remains a
matter of contention. Despite international pressure for a ceasefire, Israel has
reaffirmed that disarming Hamas is a stance on which it cannot compromise.
Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) Spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari stated that
the country’s military has killed more than 17,000 Hamas fighters in the Gaza
Strip since the beginning of the war.
Meanwhile, Israel’s targeted assassinations have taken out numerous high-ranking
figures in Iran’s proxy network in Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria. IDF
airstrikes have eliminated Hamas and Hezbollah fighters in Nablus, Tubas, Gaza,
Beirut, Nabi Chit, Shebaa, Nabatieh, Homs, and many other locations in recent
weeks. These heavy losses endured by the “Axis of Resistance” call into question
Iranian leaders lauding “heroic flexibility” and claiming that “time is on [the
regime’s] side.”
*Janatan Sayeh is a research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of
Democracies focused on Iranian domestic affairs and the Islamic Republic’s
regional malign influence.
https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2024/08/analysis-from-harsh-punishment-to-tactical-retreat-time-isnt-on-tehrans-side.php
Iran Is Shockingly Close to Nuclear Breakout Potential; The
World Must Act
Andrea Stricker/The Algemeiner/August 22/2024
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2024/08/133484/
The UN nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), will
soon issue new reporting on Iran’s nuclear program from a summer of inspections
at Tehran’s nuclear sites.
The new data — and their implications — may cause a shock.
In June, Tehran installed numerous new uranium-enrichment centrifuges at its
Natanz enrichment plant and its underground Fordow site, more than tripling the
latter’s capacity to produce uranium enriched to 60 percent purity.
Amassing 60 percent enriched material puts Iran days from enriching that uranium
to 90 percent, the level needed for atomic weapons. As a result, the Islamic
Republic’s so-called “breakout time” — specifically, the amount of time the
regime needs to produce weapons-grade uranium for multiple nuclear devices — may
have dropped significantly.
The IAEA’s 35-member Board of Governors will meet next during the week of
September 9 in Vienna, where Washington and its European allies will consider
Tehran’s nuclear advances, and assess Iran’s non-compliance with previous Board
demands that the regime cooperate on a multi-year IAEA investigation into
Tehran’s nuclear weapons-work.
To deter and penalize further Iranian advances, the West should pass an IAEA
censure resolution against Tehran, and trigger the snapback of UN sanctions on
the regime.
Iran’s breakout time began dropping precipitously after the election of US
President Joe Biden in 2020, as Tehran exploited his desire to revive the 2015
Iran nuclear deal and remove sanctions. Notably, this expansion came after
Iran’s relative restraint when President Donald Trump exited the nuclear accord
in 2018 and implemented massive US sanctions that severely crippled the Iranian
economy.
As of November 2020, according to the Washington, D.C.-based Institute for
Science and International Security, Iran needed 3.5 months to make weapons-grade
uranium for one nuclear device, and around 5.5 months to produce enough material
for two.
Biden later said he wouldn’t try to revive the joint nuclear deal, but stood by
as Iranian breakout time dropped to terrifying levels.
IAEA data for May 2024 indicated the Islamic Republic could make enough fuel for
one nuclear weapon in under 7 days, and enough for 13 weapons in four months.
The regime would require an unknown number of additional months to build atomic
devices and integrate the weapons-grade fuel, and the United States and Israel
have reportedly observed Iranian scientists working on such efforts.
At Fordow last June, Iran installed advanced-generation machines known as the
IR-6, which churn out uranium at a fast clip. There, Iran was already enriching
uranium to 60 percent purity in two clusters of centrifuges — known as cascades
— each containing 174 IR-6 machines, and informed the IAEA it was adding eight
more cascades.
Institute for Science and International Security President David Albright
crunched the numbers at Fordow, and found — using that facility alone — that
Tehran could produce enough weapons-grade uranium for nine nuclear weapons in
two months, adding to Iran’s overall breakout capability and rendering the plant
an agile pathway for the Islamic Republic to quickly produce fuel for nuclear
weapons.
Unless Iran has slowed centrifuge installation, Tehran could have nearly 1,400
IR-6 machines spinning at the highly fortified Fordow site, along with hundreds
more new advanced machines at Natanz. A caveat: The United States may have
offered the regime informal but lucrative sanctions relief to slow but not stop
installation, meaning Iran could ramp back up any time.
These developments pair poorly with new US and Israeli intelligence that Iranian
scientists at civilian research institutes were recently studying computer
modeling and metallurgy related to nuclear weapons. As a result, the US
intelligence community was unable to assert in a recent report to Congress that
Iran is not working on nuclear weapons activities, prompting alarm from members
of Congress who have seen the report’s classified version and received
briefings.
Moreover, it is unclear whether the US and Israeli intelligence communities have
adequate insight into Iran’s more covert nuclear weapons-work at military sites.
With the disarray of US election season and multiple world crises, Tehran’s
temptation to sprint to nuclear weapons will only grow. Washington and its
European allies must immediately counter and deter further Iranian advances.
As a follow-on to the IAEA board’s Iran censure last June — and in light of
Tehran’s failure to comply with the board’s demands — the West must vote for a
new censure at the IAEA’s upcoming meeting. Yet since Iran used the June board
resolution as a pretext to expand its uranium-enrichment capacity immediately
after, the West must do better at deterring further advances.
In the new IAEA resolution, Washington and its allies must refer Tehran’s
proliferation case to the UN Security Council, where the United States, the
United Kingdom, or France may — without Russia and China’s veto — reimpose
within 30 days all Iranian sanctions that currently remain lifted by the defunct
nuclear accord. Importantly, those sanctions prohibit Tehran’s
uranium-enrichment activity and international (read: Russian and Chinese)
missile and military trade with the regime. The West must also signal more
sanctions pain is to come for additional Iranian advances.
Iran is rapidly approaching the capability to produce a medium-sized nuclear
arsenal, and no nation but Israel is acting to stop it. Unless the Western
powers plan to counter an expansionist, messianic Islamic Republic with nuclear
weapons — one that is already acting on plans to destroy Israel by 2040 — they
would do well to halt the regime’s advances while there is still time.
Andrea Stricker is deputy director of the Nonproliferation and Biodefense
Program and a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD).
Follow her on Twitter @StrickerNonpro. FDD is a nonpartisan research institute
focusing on national security and foreign policy.
Kamala Harris Picks Terror Supporter as "Liaison" to
American Jews
Daniel Greenfield/Gatestone Institute./August 22, 2024
A member of John Kerry's team under President Barack Obama, whose biased attacks
on Israel and support for Iran and Islamic terrorists in Israel helped lead to
the current regional crisis, [Ilan] Goldenberg had spent the years leading up to
October 7, 2023 doing everything possible to make the Hamas attack happen. He
had urged that more money should go into the Hamas territory and argued that
Israel should allow in workers from Gaza. "You used to have 25,000, 100,000
Gazans working inside Israel. That needs to happen again." That led to Oct 7.
Harris's new Jewish "liaison" opposed every single pro-Israel move by both
Republicans and Democrats, whether it was moving the US Embassy to Jerusalem,
recognizing Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, or even cutting off aid
to the "pay-for-slay" program of the Palestinian Authority. Instead, he urged
anti-Israel moves, including a unilateral recognition of a "Palestinian" state
on Israel's territory.
Goldenberg had been a vocal proponent of the Iran nuclear deal, and attended an
event by National Iranian American Council (NIAC): the Iran lobby. He had argued
that, "In the aftermath of a successful nuclear deal, U.S. relations with Iran
should shift from that of an adversary to that of a competitor."
And Goldenberg had been part of the team that was responsible for and had
defended the Obama administration's opposition to Israel at the UN.
Previous Jewish liaisons were usually involved with Jewish communal life and
could speak to a variety of issues. Goldenberg is simply an anti-Israel activist
whose only issues are empowering Iran and Hamas.
Instead of selecting someone from the Jewish community or any of her political
aides, Harris chose someone whose sole function will be to justify her
anti-Israel policies to the Jewish community, and who will filter any efforts by
the Jewish community to push back against them.
During the 2021 battles with Hamas, Goldenberg explained why Biden was only
pretending to support Israel.
Lies, deceit and manipulation with the aim of empowering Hamas and destroying
Israel.
The Kamala campaign and her political allies are leading a fundamental break
with Israel, even before the election, while disguising it with happy talk for
the benefit of some of their donors.
The appointment of one of the most persistently hostile foreign policy figures
as a 'liaison' to the Jewish community sends a powerful message that this
administration will be as anti-Israel as him and that Kamala will reconfigure
her relationship with American Jews around her anti-Israel policies. Not even
Obama went that far. What does it say that Kamala is already doing it now?
The Harris-Walz campaign has picked Ilan Goldenberg (left) as its "liaison" to
the Jewish community. A member of John Kerry's team under President Barack Obama,
whose biased attacks on Israel and support for Iran and Islamic terrorists in
Israel helped lead to the current regional crisis, Goldenberg had spent the
years leading up to October 7, 2023 doing everything possible to make the Hamas
attack happen. (Image sources: Obama and Kerry - Jim Watson/AFP via Getty
Images. Goldenberg - US Department of Defense)
"Pressure is building in Congress for Biden to do more to halt Israel's assault
on Gaza," he was asked in a 2021 interview as fighting raged to stop Hamas
assaults on Israel.
"Hopefully he can use it as leverage to get the Israelis to stop," Ilan
Goldenberg, Kamala's future Middle East advisor and new "liaison" to the Jewish
community, answered.
Could a Harris administration be any worse for the Jews than the Obama
administration?
An early answer arrived with the announcement that the Harris-Walz campaign has
picked Goldenberg as its "liaison" to the Jewish community. Freedom Center
Investigates had previously profiled Goldenberg when he was serving as Harris's
Middle East advisor.
A member of John Kerry's team under President Barack Obama, whose biased attacks
on Israel and support for Iran and Islamic terrorists in Israel helped lead to
the current regional crisis, Goldenberg had spent the years leading up to
October 7, 2023 doing everything possible to make the Hamas attack happen. And
the time afterward serving as a Harris adviser and imposing sanctions on
Israelis.
Goldenberg had previously advocated for a deal in which "Hamas would retain some
of its military capabilities" and argued:
"I think half the root causes are Israeli actions, in terms of — especially just
focusing on Gaza, on the blockade. And the other half is Hamas' choice to use
violence and arm itself in response."
He had urged that more money should go into the Hamas territory and argued that
Israel should allow in workers from Gaza. "You used to have 25,000, 100,000
Gazans working inside Israel. That needs to happen again." That led to Oct 7.
Harris's new Jewish "liaison" opposed every single pro-Israel move by both
Republicans and Democrats, whether it was moving the US Embassy to Jerusalem,
recognizing Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, or even cutting off aid
to the "pay-for-slay" program of the Palestinian Authority. Instead, he urged
anti-Israel moves, including a unilateral recognition of a "Palestinian" state
on Israel's territory.
Goldenberg had been a vocal proponent of the Iran nuclear deal, and attended an
event by National Iranian American Council (NIAC): the Iran lobby. He had argued
that, "In the aftermath of a successful nuclear deal, U.S. relations with Iran
should shift from that of an adversary to that of a competitor."
And Goldenberg had been part of the team that was responsible for and had
defended the Obama administration's opposition to Israel at the UN.
A recent Tablet article by Michael Doran of the Center for Peace and Security in
the Middle East had described Goldenberg as playing a "very enthusiastic role"
in the Biden administration's program to sanction Jews in Israel. So far those
sanctions have targeted an Israeli goat farm, an Israeli baker who shot a
terrorist, and an Israeli mother of 8 who works with survivors of sexual assault
and led protests against Biden administration policies that rewarded Hamas.
Rather than being associated with the Jewish community, Goldenberg was tied to
anti-Israel groups including J Street, Americans for Peace Now and the Israel
Policy Forum: which hailed the pick. Goldenberg had a scant history with Jewish
groups, but he had attended an event for NIAC, the Iran lobby, and had been a
vigorous champion of the deal that empowered Iran's terrorism.
But all of that may not even be the most disturbing part of the move by Vice
President Kamala Harris.
Previous Jewish liaisons were usually involved with Jewish communal life and
could speak to a variety of issues. Goldenberg is simply an anti-Israel activist
whose only issues are empowering Iran and Hamas. Harris just reduced the Jewish
community to support for her anti-Israel program without even any
acknowledgement that there are American Jews.
A Harris aide stated that Goldenberg would be "the campaign's main liaison with
Jewish community leaders and stakeholders and advise the campaign on issues
related to the U.S.-Israel relationship, the war in Gaza and the broader Middle
East."
There's no mention of anything American Jews might be interested in inside
America.
American Jews are not the Israeli government or an arm of it. And yet to Harris,
that is all they are. Harris's aide couldn't think of American Jews except in
terms of foreign policy.
Harris's mouthpieces in the Jewish community claimed that because her husband is
of Jewish ancestry, that she understands Jews. If anything, American Jews are
apparently alien to her.
Instead of selecting someone from the Jewish community or any of her political
aides, Harris chose someone whose sole function will be to justify her
anti-Israel policies to the Jewish community, and who will filter any efforts by
the Jewish community to push back against them.
What can American Jews expect from Goldenberg and by extension from Harris?
During the 2021 battles with Hamas, Goldenberg explained why Biden was only
pretending to support Israel:
"What Biden has decided to do for the moment is privately tell the Israelis to
stop or to stop soon while publicly continuing to support them. This helps him
build political support... but when there does come a moment, hopefully soon...
where Biden says, 'OK, enough is enough, you must stop or our public position is
going to start to shift. Our position at the UN Security Council where we've
been defending you is going to start to shift. You need to make this end.'
"But if he had just started by publicly criticizing, I think that the belief, at
least in the Biden administration, is that it might have actually been a moment
for Prime Minister Netanyahu to stand up to the United States and say 'we don't
take our orders from the United States. We have to do what's best in our
security,' and kind of use the disagreement with the U.S. as a political
rallying cry for himself at home. And so I think this is one of the reasons why
the Biden administration chose to, at least at the beginning, publicly support
Israel."
Lies, deceit and manipulation with the aim of empowering Hamas and destroying
Israel.
Every single "rabbi" featured on the "Jewish Americans for Kamala Harris"
virtually rally organized by Haile Sofer, Harris's former adviser, and her
Jewish Democratic Council of America (JDCA), was an anti-Israel activist. Sofer
and the JDCA, who had formerly hailed Senator Chuck Schumer's demand that Israel
stop fighting Hamas, celebrated Goldenberg's appointment.
Harris's campaign and her political allies are leading a fundamental break with
Israel, even before the election, while disguising it with happy talk for the
benefit of some of their donors.
The appointment of one of the most persistently hostile foreign policy figures
as a "liaison" to the Jewish community sends a powerful message that a Harris
administration will be as anti-Israel as Goldenberg and that Harris will
reconfigure her relationship with American Jews around her anti-Israel policies.
Not even Obama went that far. What does it say that Harris is already doing it
now?
*Daniel Greenfield is a Shillman Journalism Fellow at the David Horowitz Freedom
Center. This article previously appeared at the Center's Front Page Magazine.
© 2024 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
'IRGC has become a monster, not what we intended,' founder tells 'Post'
Alex Winston/Jerusalem Post/August 22/2024
Mohsen Sazegara, who set up the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, has spent
the past 20 years living in the US after he became a dissident against the
Iranian regime.
Mohsen Sazegara has been many things in his life: student, revolutionary,
founder of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), journalist,
politician, dissident criminal, and exile. But first and foremost, he is a proud
Iranian.
There is a fire that burns behind Sazegara’s eyes when he talks about a homeland
he has not seen for over 20 years; a place he cannot return to while the current
regime holds power, for fear of death.
In a wide-ranging exclusive interview with The Jerusalem Post, the former
revolutionary-turned-politician discussed his role in the Iranian Revolution of
1979, his relationship then with Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the founding of
the IRGC, and how his political views evolved against the state-religion axis
that rules in the Islamic Republic, leading to his being barred from the 2001
Iranian presidential elections. Speaking from the US, where he is now based,
Sazegara also touched upon internal conflicts within the Islamic Republic and
the problems facing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Born in Tehran in 1955, Sazegara entered the prestigious Aryamehr University of
Technology in 1973 before continuing his studies in 1975 at the Illinois
Institute of Technology in Chicago, where he was an active member of the Muslim
Student Association and, perhaps more ominously, joined the Liberation Movement
of Iran (LMI – also known as the Freedom Movement of Iran.)
The LMI was banned at the time in his homeland, Sazegara told the Post - “If
[the authorities] knew that you were a member of that organization, you would be
arrested. During the three years that I was studying in the US, I traveled to
Iran four times, and I was very active in underground activities.”
DESPITE THE revolutionary zeal common to students, there was no sign of what was
to come in 1979, when Sazegara was plucked from Illinoisan obscurity and thrust
onto the world stage.He was called to join Khomeini, a fellow Iranian exile and
Muslim cleric, who had become the de-facto leader of protesters against the Shah
of Iran, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. Khomeini was exiled to Iraq in 1964 before
taking up residency in the commune of Neauphle-le-Château, 18 miles outside of
Paris, in 1978.
Khomeini is described by Sazegara as having been “very clever, very smart. When
you talk to somebody about something that he has no background knowledge on,
from his questions and his reactions, you can find out how fast he got it and
absorbed the idea. He was a very good listener, too. When you were talking to
him, he looked down, put his hands together, and listened very carefully, and
then he had very good questions.”
The ayatollah persistently called for the Shah’s removal and the introduction of
Sharia law as the legal code for a future Iran. “When Khomenei went to Neauphle-le-Château,
Dr. Ebrahim Yazdi was his top adviser, and Yazdi was one of the leaders of the
LMI,” Sazegara recalled. “He called me and said, ‘Mohsen, we have brought the
ayatollah to France, and we need you.’ He called me at four o’clock in the
afternoon, and I was on the plane at eight o’clock that night.
“I was at the commune for about 100 days, and I was responsible for different
jobs before we returned to Iran. I returned to Iran on what they called the
‘Victory Flight.’”
The Victory Flight on February 1, 1979, gave the world one of the most defining
images of the Iranian Revolution. The Shah had fled Iran due to the civil unrest
two weeks earlier, never to return, and the sight of an elderly Muslim cleric
being helped down airplane steps by an Air France captain (the plane was
specially chartered), greeted by an adoring crowd, signified the moment of
transition when Iran abandoned its 2,500-year-old monarchy and embraced Islamic
republicanism.
There were fears that forces loyal to the Shah would shoot the plane down, such
was the hatred for Khomeini in some quarters. But when asked about such worries,
Sazegara chuckled.
“I didn’t think they would shoot down the plane,” he stated. We had about 150
[international] reporters on board!”
SPEAKING TO the BBC in 2019, Sazegara described how his entire family, except
for his father, went out to the streets to welcome Khomeini back to Iran, and
this was a common feeling across the city as millions greeted the cleric.
Some would hold Sazegara accountable for being complicit in the establishment of
a regime and an organization responsible for bringing so much misery and terror
into the world. However, the West has often misunderstood the Iranian
Revolution.
While all revolutions are complex, Iran’s in 1979 is often portrayed as some
form of working-class revolution – the poor rising up against the Shah, or the
religious Islamists rising up against modernization and Westernization.
However, the intricate relationships in Iranian society – between the urban and
the rural populations, the middle and lower classes, the religious and
irreligious, the ulema (clergy) who headed the Islamic schools of thought and
the powerful bazaari merchant class, Marxists and democratists, men and women –
meant that there was no guarantee of a successful successor state to the
monarchy.
Still, a referendum overwhelmingly supported the creation of an Islamic Republic
and the appointment of Khomeini as supreme leader. Islamic law would now guide
the new state, and Khomeini would be its guardian.
It was in this volatile atmosphere of post-revolutionary Iran, where power
struggles and ideological clashes were rampant, that the Islamic Revolutionary
Guard Corps was created.
IRGC
The IRGC is best known today for its ruthless enforcement of the republic’s
will, military and intelligence sectors, terror designation, and regional
influence through its relationship with Iranian proxy groups such as Hezbollah,
Hamas, and the Houthis.
It was founded shortly after the revolution to protect the Islamic Republic’s
religious control over the country and to act as a counterbalance to the regular
Iranian Army, many of whose officers were still loyal to the Shah of Iran, and
therefore could not be trusted by the revolutionary regime.
“Ayatollah Hassan Lahouti, who was released from jail during the revolution, got
an order from Khomeini to gather weapons from the hands of the people,” Sazegara
recounted.
“At the final stage of the revolution, everybody had guns, so for the country’s
security, we decided to collect the guns from the people. I went to one of the
garrisons in Tehran, and I wrote a statement for national radio inviting the
people to bring back their weapons. That was the first step in establishing a
people’s army, which became the IRGC.”
Sazegara had established connections while in Neauphle-le-Château with militant
Iranians, some of whom he sent to camps across the Middle East for training,
including Palestinian ones. He predicted at the time that the revolution would
be a five-to-seven-year guerrilla war to gain power.
As with other revolutions, the number of different political groups holding
weapons, plus the threat of the Iranian Army, was one the new authorities wanted
to protect against.
“It took a week as a group of five; we worked on the charter of this People’s
Army. We had three goals in establishing this new organization,” Sazegara
explained.
“First, the security of the country: to collect the guns,” he said. “Second, to
defend the country if we came under foreign attack as the fear was that the US
would attack Iran [to restore the Shah].
Sometimes, as a joke, I say that the Shah didn’t stay long enough for us to
fight against him. Third, we had the bitter experience of a plot against the
national government of Mohammad Mosaddegh in the 1953 military coup, a plot
designed by the British and US Secret Services, and we were afraid of a military
coup.”
THERE WAS also a surprising influence in the decision to create a people’s army,
Sazegara revealed.“We knew that we would rebuild the army of Iran, but we
thought that if we have a people’s army defending the country, it would mobilize
the people to help the Iranian Army, and in peacetime, people would have
training like the Israeli army and volunteers in Israel. That was one of the
models that we were thinking of then.
“I was one of the five members of the provisional board of commanders,” he
recalled.”Three months after it was established and the charter was passed, I
said to myself that I don’t like this job, and I left the Guards.
Sazegara is quick to recognize, however, that the organization that exists today
and has such a prominent role in global terror is far from the idealistic
people’s army he helped to create in 1979.“Our idea of a revolutionary guard was
not the idea of the current one,” he stated.
“This is a monster right now. [The modern] IRGC is not a unified organization.
It’s like a dragon with seven different heads that are independent from each
other. There is a classic army, the terrorist group, the suppression machine
with intelligence like the KGB, and at the same time [the Corps] is like a
Western cartel involving hundreds of companies and like the mafia, involved in
drug smuggling, brothel running and running gambling houses. This is completely
different from the original idea.”
Sazegara describes the current leadership as behaving “like a theocracy or
totalitarian regime or a dictatorship, but the main nature of this regime is a
kleptocracy right now.” He estimates that up to half of the Iranian economy may
be tied in some way to current Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s personal fortune,
whether through embezzlement or misappropriation.
The Wilderness Years
However, as the new regime solidified its power, Sazegara’s disillusionment
began to grow. Serving as managing director of Iran’s National Radio until 1981,
and in various political roles throughout the 1980s, he witnessed firsthand the
regime’s divergence from the revolution’s original ideals.
He served as political deputy in the prime minister’s office, deputy minister of
heavy industries, chairman of the Industrial Development and Renovation
Organization of Iran, and vice minister of planning and budget.
Real disillusion with the regime began for him in 1988 as he described his
realization that “the problem of this regime is not accidental: It’s essential.
It’s in the theory of this regime. It’s in Islamism, and in running a country
based on Islamic sharia and ideological leftist ideology regarding the economy.”
After nearly a decade spent battling the regime to keep open several
publications that Sazegara ran, he was now firmly in the reformist political
camp, determined to change the status quo of the Islamic Republic’s
constitution.
As the 1997 presidential elections approached, the reformists were looking for a
way to “break the shell, which is the constitution of the Islamic Republic, and
establish a democratic regime.
“That was the plan of the reform movement – and we chose [Muhammad] Khatami,” he
said.
Khatami was a reformist cleric who swept to the presidency in a shock result
with around 70% of the public vote, and his presidency promised much change in
its formative months.
However, the new president consistently found himself battling the authorities.
Part of Iran’s political system is that the supreme leader and a Council of
Guardians have the ultimate say on who can run for the Iranian parliament and in
presidential elections, often leading to cherry-picking of favored candidates.
AHEAD OF the 2001 presidential elections, Sazegara intended to stand himself on
a reformist ticket – with only one policy. If elected, he would have held a
referendum on the Iranian constitution. After declaring his candidacy, despite
knowing that Khamenei would ban him from running, he then had three months to
speak to as many people as possible and get his message across.
Universities and students welcomed his message and soon he found himself in
further trouble with the authorities.
“When they arrested me, they arrested about 800 students with me – including my
son, who was a student in University of Tehran – and then I went on hunger
strike,” he told the Post from Washington.
“The intelligence ministry arrested me first, but then released me because of my
hunger strike and the pressure from many of my friends still in the parliament.”
Just two months later, however, Sazegara was arrested again, this time by IRGC
intelligence officers.“I was arrested by IRGC intelligence and they didn’t
release me. I went on two long hunger strikes, for 79 days in total; after that,
I was released for poor health. I damaged my heart and my eye so when I was
released, my eye doctor and heart doctor recommended that both of them needed
surgery.”
After a $600,000 bail, Sazegara attempted to leave the country for surgery in
the UK, and was only granted permission to leave after asking the IRGC. He
believes the permission to leave Iran came from Khamenei himself, but figured
the authorities would rather have him out of the country than inside causing
trouble. The dissident spent a year in London before continuing on to the US,
where he still resides, completing fellowships at several American universities
before settling in Washington. He was sentenced to six years in absentia in Iran
for crimes against the state.
Modern Iran
As the political landscape in Iran has evolved, so too has Sazegara’s
perspective. Now a vocal critic of the regime from his exile in the US, he
offered a stark analysis of his homeland’s current predicament, particularly its
precarious stance against Israel. The republic is in no position to fight a
long-term war with Israel, he said, and even asked the US to intervene to
prevent a possible large-scale Israeli retaliation to any Iranian attack.
“What Israel did – I mean the alleged assassination of [Hamas Chief] Ismail
Haniyeh, in the heart of Tehran, in one of the most protected places – was a
humiliation for the intelligence organizations of Iran,” Sazegara stated. “This
has created a problem for Khamenei among his main power base: the intelligence
services. “[Khamenei’s] first reaction was that we retaliate and don’t stop. But
when he referred to his military commanders and the experts in the IRGC, and
that they should present the options of what to do, they told him that Iran is
not in a position to fight Israel. They don’t have any strategic balance. They
can send missiles toward Israel, especially hypersonic missiles that can reach
Israel in six to eight minutes. ‘But when Israel retaliates, then we can’t
defend the country, especially air defense,’ Khamenei’s commanders told him.
They told him that “Iran is not in a position to fight Israel,” Sazegara said.
“They emphasized that ‘even if we launch an attack, we should immediately
consider a ceasefire with international mediators.’”
SPEAKING ABOUT the US role in the growing conflict between Israel and Iran,
Sazegara stated that, “As far as I know, Iran, behind the scenes, negotiated
with the US and the Biden administration and asked them to talk to Israel,
stating that Iran would attack somewhere in Israel – and promise that nobody
will be killed – but Israel should not retaliate.
“Iran asked the US to put pressure on Israel not to retaliate enough to
escalate,” he said, “but this time, the US did not agree, and told them that ‘we
can’t prevent Israel’” from retaliating.
For Sazegara, Khamenei faces multiple challenges in considering any military
action against Israel. First, a limited attack risks provoking a significant
Israeli retaliation, which could lead to the defeat of Iran’s armed forces. Such
a defeat could threaten Khamenei’s power, since historically, humiliated armed
forces often bite the hand that feeds them.
Secondly, Iran’s economy is fragile, struggling with issues like energy
production, inflation, unemployment, and daily strikes. This economic
instability further complicates the prospect of engaging in war.
Lastly, Khamenei lacks the support of the Iranian people for a war with Israel.
Intelligence gathered indicates that the majority of Iranians oppose any
conflict with the Jewish state, leaving the supreme leader potentially isolated
if he chooses to pursue military action.
Although he knows the forcefulness with which the regime cracks down on dissent,
that thought may be far from the ayatollah’s mind.
Three senior Iranian officials told Reuters last week that only a ceasefire deal
in Gaza could prevent Iran from directly retaliating against Israel for
Haniyeh’s assassination. Diplomatic envoys have been working tirelessly behind
the scenes to de-escalate the situation.
This is a face-saving measure to allow the regime to fall back and present the
people with some form of a pyrrhic victory, according to the exiled dissident.
“I’m sure that in Iran, the propaganda will say that ‘Israel was actually afraid
of us and accepted the ceasefire,’” should a deal be agreed to,” he told the
Post. “They have to do something to say to their followers that this was a show
of power: that [Israel] accepted a ceasefire.”
And if these [Israel-Hamas] negotiations go nowhere and there is no ceasefire, I
don’t know what Khamenei will do – but I guess that he would consider using
Iran’s proxy groups to retaliate against Israel.”
AND WHAT of the future for Sazegara and Iran? In the meantime, he says, he will
continue fighting the regime just as he did during the Green Movement of 2009
when pro-democracy Iranians protested the re-election of president Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad and during protests following the death in police custody of Mahsa
Amini, a young girl arrested by the Guidance Patrol (morality police) in
September 2022 for allegedly violating Iran’s mandatory hijab law.
Sazegara points to women and Generation Z as the two main cohorts who can bring
the Islamic regime down, perhaps ironically since the youth and women were two
of the groups who gained the most from the shah’s policies of modernization.
As the Shah himself stated, “Iran is the land of great contradictions and
unforeseen events, especially this regime. Maybe tomorrow, something will happen
that we cannot foresee right now.”
Now 69, Sazegara’s life has often mirrored the turbulence and chaos of the
regime.
This is a story of a man and a nation caught in the throes of revolution,
repression, and the enduring hope for freedom.
The question remains: Will Sazegara, a man who fought and is still fighting hard
for a better future for Iranians, ever see his homeland again?
Israel must stand firm on the battlefield and also the hostage negotiation table
- opinion
Professor Efraim Inbar/JISS/August 22, 2024
https://jiss.org.il/en/inbar-israel-must-stand-firm/
Many international actors and figures in the domestic Israeli arena have
emphasized time and again the need to sign a “hostage deal” quickly to save some
of the hostages and achieve a ceasefire. This, they believe, would encourage
Hezbollah to end its war of attrition against Israel.
The Americans hope the deal will also prevent Iran and Hezbollah’s promised
military retaliations against the Jewish state. The Americans want to achieve
regional calm and hope that a deal will prevent escalation and spare them the
need to intervene militarily. The rest of the world also desires an end to the
war in Gaza. Some argue that the ceasefire would give the IDF time to recover
from the prolonged fighting and to prepare properly for an anticipated, perhaps
inevitable war against Hezbollah – and possibly to deal with the Iranian nuclear
threat as well. Furthermore, it has been suggested that if the ceasefire brings
an end of the war, as many expect, Saudi Arabia will return to the negotiating
table on normalization with Israel, and the anti-Iranian axis that the US is
working to build will emerge. The last sweetener in Washington’s hands is that
the end of the war will pave the way for the reconstruction of Gaza and the
establishment of an American-backed, Palestinian Authority-controlled reformed
Palestinian state.
However, this perspective is no more than wishful thinking: Perhaps Hamas leader
Yahya Sinwar intends to continue fighting to bring about the “unification of
fronts” against Israel? Even if we assume that the terrorist leader’s difficult
military situation pushes him toward a deal, his goal is the end of the war and
the withdrawal of the IDF from Gaza. The first phase of the discussed deal with
Hamas will likely end the war, and the chances of its renewal to complete the
task of dismantling Hamas are slim. Sinwar will remain in Gaza with a
significant number of fighters, with no opposition to hinder him from restoring
Hamas’s rule over the Strip, and with the remaining hostages under his
captivity, who will serve as a security buffer and a means of blackmail against
Israel.
AN IMAGE of Sinwar emerging from hiding, amid the victory cheers of Palestinian
terrorists released from Israeli prisons, would represent a defeat for Israel.
Moreover, when the top brass of the IDF signals fatigue and a reluctance to
confront Hamas, Israel conveys weakness: a recipe for continued and even
increased aggression against it. It is also uncertain whether Hezbollah will
call an end to its war of attrition in the North, as the war aligns with the
strategy dictated by Tehran: to harm Israel’s civilian population. Why would
Hezbollah relinquish a significant achievement like emptying northern Israel in
the area near the Lebanese border of its inhabitants? The terrorist group also
sees how Jerusalem is hesitant to launch a war against it. And who can guarantee
that the Houthis will stop launching rockets and drones from Yemen into Israel?
American retaliation against the Houthis have not deterred them from blocking
the vital Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
Contrary to Washington’s assessments, there will be no regional calm, because
ending the war at this time, in this manner, is a victory for the Iranian-led
radical Islamic “Axis of Resistance.” Even if we assume that Iran does not want
to retaliate against Israel for the assassination of Hamas’s “political” leader
Ismail Haniyeh (a problematic assumption), there is no reason to believe it will
stop encouraging its proxies in the region to spill Jewish blood.
Besides all this, there are additional conflicts in the Middle East where
violence is part and parcel of the rules of the regional game – for example, the
conflicts in Sudan and Libya. Turkey, whose soldiers are present in several
countries in the region, is not lacking bloodlust either.
Furthermore, if Israel is perceived as losing the war, while the Saudis and
other “moderate” Arab states yearn for an Israeli victory over the Palestinian
branch of the Muslim Brotherhood, no anti-Iranian axis that Israel is a part of
will emerge. An Israeli military failure in Gaza will lead Arab states to
distance themselves from Jerusalem, as it will be seen as ineffective against
Iran. Even the Abraham Accords, a major American achievement, will be at risk.
Israel is a desired partner only if it is strong.
OF COURSE, the American hope for a “reformed” Palestinian state is naive or
foolish. Unfortunately, the best future scenario for the Palestinians is a
corrupt and faltering Palestinian Authority. It could spiral into a civil war
because of the succession struggle developing in the authority due to Mahmoud
Abbas’s advanced age (88).
Hamas will also participate in this – and if the Americans push for elections
(their preferred means for democratization), it should be remembered that even
before October 7, Hamas won democratic elections in 2005 and then forcibly took
over Gaza. Additionally, support for the terrorist group has only grown
following the barbaric attack on Israel, as all polls have shown.
A moral obligation to return the hostages, but cautions ahead
There is, of course, a moral obligation to return hostages. The IDF has acted to
free hostages and even risks soldiers for bodies – six were just recovered, it
was announced earlier this week.
Ransom for hostages is a “great commandment,” meaning it is significant and
important. However, it is not an absolute command. The Mishnah teaches that “we
do not redeem captives for more than their worth due to the repair of the world:
so that [their captors] do not strive to increase the number of captives”
(Tractate Gittin, Mishnah 4:6). The ransom for the hostages should not be
excessive: this was also determined by a committee headed by Supreme Court
Justice Meir Shamgar. While setting a reasonable price is subject to debate, the
principle is correct.
The moral calculation must include the fact that releasing an unknown number of
terrorists in exchange for some of the hostages poses a tangible danger to
Israeli citizens. The more than a thousand released in the Schalit deal are
responsible for the deaths of many Israelis. Israel has already had to deal with
several terrorists among those released in November 2023 – including Sinwar
himself. Is the blood of Israeli citizens who have been or will be killed due to
released terrorists’ return to hostile terrorist activities considered any less
red?
History proves that more victims of release agreements with terrorist
organizations are a certainty. Therefore, the emerging deal is problematic from
a moral standpoint.
It also has strategic flaws because it will likely lead to the cessation of the
war – and because the withdrawal from Gaza in the first phase of the deal does
not leave Israel with leverage to secure the release of the remaining hostages
held by the murderous organization.
Moreover, the proposed technological alternatives to the presence of IDF
soldiers are not credible, and Gaza will return to Hamas’s control. Israel must
not allow such a scenario – and must stand firm on the battlefield as well as at
the negotiating table.
**The writer is the president of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and
Security (JISS) and head of the Department of Strategy, Diplomacy, and National
Security at the Shalem Academic Center.
Fears escalate over Iran’s potential emergence as a nuclear
state
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/August 22, 2024
As Iran continues to make rapid strides in advancing its nuclear program, the
international community’s apprehension is reaching new heights. The prospect of
Iran becoming a nuclear-armed state is increasingly viewed as a near-term
reality, prompting widespread concern among global powers.
Rep. Mike Turner, chairman of the US House Intelligence Committee, expressed his
alarm on Sunday, stating that Iran could potentially declare itself a
nuclear-armed state “by the end of the year.”
This development raises critical questions about Iran’s ability to achieve
nuclear status within such a short timeframe. Since the Trump administration’s
decision to withdraw the US from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action nuclear
deal, Iran has been steadily advancing its nuclear ambitions.
The 2015 agreement, negotiated between Iran and the P5+1 (the five permanent
members of the UN Security Council plus Germany), imposed strict limitations on
Iran's nuclear activities. Specifically, Tehran was restricted to enriching
uranium to a purity of no more than 3.67 percent, maintaining a stockpile of
approximately 300 kg, as well as operating only rudimentary IR-1 centrifuges.
However, in the years following the US’ withdrawal from the nuclear deal, Iran
has progressively breached these limitations. It has exceeded the 3.67 percent
uranium enrichment threshold at multiple sites, amassed a stockpile of
low-enriched uranium far beyond the 300 kg cap, expanded its number of
centrifuges and invested heavily in centrifuge research and development,
violating the terms of the original agreement.
Reports have indicated that Iran’s uranium enrichment levels have alarmingly
reached at least 84 percent, which is perilously close to the 90 percent
threshold required for weapons-grade material. This development suggests that
Iran is now within striking distance of obtaining the crucial components
necessary to assemble nuclear weapons.
The question now arises: does the Iranian government genuinely intend to become
a nuclear-armed state? For years, Iranian leaders have consistently asserted
that their nuclear program is solely for peaceful purposes. They have cited a
religious decree (fatwa) issued by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, which
purportedly forbids the acquisition and use of nuclear weapons.
Yet, recent rhetoric from Iranian officials indicates a potential shift in
policy. There is now open discussion within Iran about the possibility of
building nuclear weapons. For example, Kamal Kharrazi, a senior adviser on
foreign policy to Khamenei, recently suggested that the Islamic Republic might
reconsider its nuclear strategy. This change in tone is significant, as it
reflects a more aggressive posture that could exacerbate regional tensions. In
addition, Iranian lawmaker Ahmad Bakhshayesh Ardestani has publicly hinted that
Iran might already possess a nuclear weapon — a claim that, if true, would
dramatically alter the strategic landscape in the Middle East.
It is worth noting, however, that this is not the first time Iranian leaders
have hinted that the nation’s nuclear ambitions may extend beyond peaceful
purposes. For instance, former deputy speaker of the Iranian parliament Ali
Motahari admitted in 2022: “From the very beginning, when we entered the nuclear
activity, our goal was to build a bomb and strengthen the deterrent forces but
we could not maintain the secrecy of this issue.” Furthermore, Fereydoun
Abbasi-Davani, the former head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran,
surprisingly acknowledged in 2021 that his work was part of a broader “system”
designed to develop nuclear weapons. He stated: “When the country’s
all-encompassing growth began, involving satellites, missiles and nuclear
weapons, and surmounted new boundaries of knowledge, the issue became more
serious for them.”
The West has also taken notice of these developments, with a noticeable shift in
tone. France, Germany and the UK in 2022 issued a joint statement to the
International Atomic Energy Agency Board of Governors, expressing grave concerns
about the nature of Iran’s nuclear program. And the US intelligence community,
which previously maintained that there were no indications Iran was pursuing
nuclear weapons, has now revised its assessment in light of recent advancements.
Taken together, these developments — particularly Iran’s rapid progress in its
nuclear program and the increasingly open discussion about the potential for
nuclear weapons — are fueling growing fears about the direction Iran is heading.
Iran is reportedly within striking distance of obtaining the crucial components
necessary to assemble nuclear weapons.
At this critical juncture, the onus is on the Iranian government to address
these fears if it wishes to reassure the international community about the
peaceful nature of its nuclear program. If Tehran is indeed committed to
nonproliferation, it must take concrete steps to reduce its uranium enrichment
levels to those allowed under the 2015 nuclear deal, as there is no peaceful
justification for its current enrichment levels. In addition, Iran could allow
full access to IAEA inspectors to monitor its nuclear activities and adhere
strictly to the rules of the Non-Proliferation Treaty, to which it is a party.
In conclusion, the time has come for the Iranian government to allay the growing
fears and insecurities within the international community regarding its nuclear
intentions. By curbing its nuclear activities and fully cooperating with the
IAEA, Iran could play a pivotal role in rebuilding trust concerning its nuclear
program.
*Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian American political scientist.
X: @Dr_Rafizadeh
What happens when AI plans your vacation?
Rafael Hernández de Santiago/Arab News/August 22, 2024
In a city renowned for its unyielding devotion to technological progress,
Techville has outdone itself this summer by outsourcing its tourism decisions to
artificial intelligence. With summer in full swing, the AI, dubbed Virtua-Explorer,
has been tasked with optimizing vacation experiences, but the results have been
nothing short of an ironic commentary on the intersection of AI and ethics.
Virtua-Explorer, a marvel of modern engineering, was designed to analyze
countless data points to deliver the perfect tourist experience. It promised to
be impartial, unbiased, and infinitely efficient. Yet, as the season unfolded,
it became evident that the AI’s decision-making process is as fraught with irony
as it is with technological sophistication.
At first glance, it seemed as though Virtua-Explorer was working wonders.
Tourist attractions in Techville, known for their futuristic flair, were
suddenly brimming with visitors. However, the specific recommendations from
Virtua-Explorer raised eyebrows. From its top suggested spots, you might find
yourself at the Techville AI Ethics Museum, a place dedicated to critiquing the
very algorithms that shaped your itinerary, or a scenic overlook where a large
billboard proudly proclaimed, “AI Knows Best (Except When It Doesn’t).”
The irony was not lost on philosopher and Techville resident Dr. Eliza
Thornwood, who commented, “It seems Virtua-Explorer has provided a perfect
demonstration of what Socrates might have called ‘the unexamined life,’ or in
this case, the unexamined algorithm. If the AI is making decisions based on
data, then it’s only as good as the data it processes, which might just be a
reflection of our biases and preconceptions.”
Indeed, Virtua-Explorer’s recommendations were a curious mix of enthusiasm and
oblivion. While it dutifully directed tourists to the Techville Silicon Gardens,
where an impressive array of microchip sculptures stood proudly, it also
suggested the renowned Digital Detox Spa, which, ironically, offered limited
digital connectivity, leaving visitors wondering if the AI was subtly poking fun
at its own omnipresence. The situation took a comical turn when Virtua-Explorer
promoted a virtual reality experience titled, “Living with AI: A Day in the
Life,” where participants could simulate the daily grind of being an AI,
complete with repetitive tasks and endless data inputs. The experience was a
hit, though it left many pondering if AI’s own self-awareness was not quite as
advanced as hoped. Another philosophical twist emerged when it was revealed that
Virtua-Explorer’s programming had been influenced by historical data reflecting
Techville’s socio-economic disparities. Dr. Thornwood mused, “If history is a
guide, then surely we must consider the biases inherent in it. Our AI’s
decisions are colored by the very limitations it was designed to transcend.” The
true measure of success may not lie in the efficiency of an algorithm but in the
depth of human experience it helps to foster.
Rafael Hernandez de Santiago
The AI’s ability to draw upon historical patterns meant that it inadvertently
perpetuated certain biases. For instance, high-end shopping districts were
heavily promoted, while less affluent neighborhoods, often rich in cultural
history and local charm, were relegated to the fringes of the recommended list.
The AI’s algorithm seemed to prioritize economic value over experiential
richness, a classic example of how technology can mirror and magnify existing
societal biases.
As Techville’s summer unfolded, the city’s local tourism board found itself
embroiled in a peculiar dilemma. On one hand, the AI’s recommendations led to
increased revenue and a surge in high-profile visitors. On the other, there was
growing dissatisfaction among locals and critics who argued that the human touch
and nuanced understanding of genuine cultural experiences had been sacrificed on
the altar of algorithmic efficiency. In a moment of wry reflection, local
historian and critic Marcus Reynolds observed, “It’s a bit like a modern-day
version of what Shakespeare might have described as ‘a tale told by an idiot,
full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.’ The AI is making a lot of noise and
creating a flurry of activity, but the question remains: Are we really
experiencing the essence of Techville or just a high-tech simulation of it?”
The debate about AI in tourism and decision-making highlights a broader
philosophical question about the nature of authenticity and the role of human
agency in an increasingly automated world. As Virtua-Explorer’s summer
recommendations continue to provoke amusement and debate, Techville finds itself
at a crossroads. Will the city embrace the convenience of AI-driven tourism at
the expense of genuine human connection and cultural richness, or will it seek a
balance between technological advancement and the irreplaceable value of human
intuition? Only time will tell, but for now, Techville’s summer tourists are
left to ponder the age-old question: If an AI suggests the best places to visit,
is the experience truly worth the digital cost?
As the summer season continues, Techville’s experiment with Virtua-Explorer
serves as a stark reminder of the philosophical and ethical complexities
entwined with technological progress. In a city that champions innovation, the
true measure of success may not lie in the efficiency of an algorithm but in the
depth of human experience it helps to foster.
• Rafael Hernandez de Santiago, viscount of Espes, is a Spanish national
residing in Saudi Arabia and working at the Gulf Research Center.
There is no such thing as ‘free’ speech, it comes at a price
Ross Anderson/Arab News/August 22, 2024
So you pop into your local coffee shop, you order your usual caramel oat milk
latte, you meet a friend and you chat, and you pass on a piece of scurrilous
gossip about a mutual acquaintance that, while entertaining, is entirely devoid
of any basis in fact.
You have behaved irresponsibly, indeed reprehensibly. But have you committed a
crime? I think not: I know of no country in the world under the rule of law
where a prosecutor could hope to obtain a conviction.
However, what if you were to post that gossip on social media? And what if it
were so entertaining that your followers shared it with theirs, who shared it
with theirs, who shared it with theirs, and so on (the definition of “going
viral”)? And what if some people who read your gossip formed, as a consequence,
a negative opinion of the person being gossiped about? And what if some of those
people took physical action in support of that negative opinion? Is your
original post now a crime? And if it isn’t, should it be?
This debate has been simmering since social media was in its infancy, but it has
achieved new salience in light of events this month on the streets of the UK.
You don’t need me to tell you what happened, you will have seen the video
footage: and let us be clear that this is not about the swift and punitive
justice meted out to thugs who rioted in the streets. Those hefty prison
sentences, by the way, were no accident. The last time England endured such
rioting was in 2011. The violent disorder at that time was brought to a rapid
end by an accelerated court process that quickly identified, charged,
prosecuted, convicted and jailed the worst offenders, thus deterring any others
from following the same path. That campaign was driven by the UK’s chief
prosecutor at the time, Keir Starmer. This month, but now as prime minister, he
deployed exactly the same playbook, with exactly the same results.
How is it possible for a sentence to be fair when no one knows how much harm —
if any — the offense actually caused?
So, no tears for those guilty of violent disorder, they had it coming. However,
of about 1,200 people arrested over the riots, roughly 650 have been charged: 29
of them committed no acts of violence and are accused instead of offenses
related to social media or other online activity.
They include a 53-year-old woman with no previous convictions, imprisoned for 15
months for saying on Facebook that mosques should be blown up; a 34-year-old man
jailed for three months for saying that riots would “keep our kids safe;” and a
31-year-old man jailed for 12 weeks for posting offensive emojis of ethnic
minorities.
None of this behavior is in any way excusable, but to criminalize it must surely
provoke a feeling of slight unease. In fact, sentencing one man in such a case,
the judge admitted that, while the offender had contributed to “a spider’s web
of disruption that caused riots,” there was no way of quantifying how much
disorder his post had caused. But should that not be the whole basis for a
criminal penalty? How is it possible for a sentence to be fair when no one knows
how much harm — if any — the offense actually caused?
As I said, this debate is not new. In January 2010, a young man called Paul
Chambers, frustrated by flight delays during a spell of bad weather in the UK,
thought it would be a merry jape to post a message on social media threatening
to blow up his local airport in Yorkshire. In what became known as the “Twitter
Joke Trial,” he was convicted of sending a menacing electronic communication,
fined £385, and lost his job. The prosecution was widely viewed at the time as a
farce and the conviction was overturned on appeal two years later. However, a
year later, during the widespread UK disorder in 2011, two men in their early
twenties were jailed for four years each for using Facebook to incite a riot.
Their appeal was unsuccessful.
I call this a debate, but in one country at least the discussion ended on Dec.
15, 1791, with the adoption of the First Amendment to the US Constitution —
guaranteeing, among other things, the right to free speech that Americans have
guarded jealously ever since. There is a view in some quarters that freedom of
speech and expression are a sort of icing on the American cake, a luxury that
you can easily afford when you are already the most militarily, economically and
culturally powerful empire the world has ever seen. In fact, it’s the other way
round: those freedoms are the very bedrock and foundation of that empire. They
are how it was built.
Other countries do things differently, as is their right. In most of the Gulf
states, reputation is paramount and any statement critical of a person or a
business may be deemed a criminal offense. UAE authorities are particularly
vigilant and many naive Western expats have fallen foul of the law, accustomed
as they are to the valuable role of fair and honest reviews in influencing
consumer choice.
In Thailand, to say or write anything disobliging about a monarch (living or
dead) is to invite charges under the world’s harshest lese-majeste laws, which
are enforced with unseemly enthusiasm, often for nakedly political reasons.
Mongkhon Thirakot, a political activist from Chiang Rai, was sentenced to 50
years’ imprisonment in January for a series of Facebook posts deemed critical of
the monarchy. My own view is that a monarch who cannot handle a bit of mockery
is probably in the wrong job: just ask King Charles, who has been lampooned
mercilessly by sections of the British press since he was a boy. But hey, I’m
not Thai.
I have always been a freedom of speech absolutist — although I began to have
doubts when I discovered that Elon Musk was one too. I can think of no argument
in which I would be comfortable on the same side as Musk, a man once memorably
described as “half genius, half fool.” I yield to no one in my admiration and
respect for Musk’s achievements with Tesla and SpaceX, and with PayPal before
that, but he seems incapable of opening his mouth in a public debate without
putting his foot in it.
For example, his comments on this month’s civil disorder in the UK ranged from
merely incendiary to borderline unhinged. He told his 193 million followers on X
that Starmer planned to incarcerate rioters in the Falkland Islands in the south
Atlantic; that British police operated a two-tier policy of treating far-right
offenders more harshly than others; asked “Is this Britain or the Soviet Union?”
and, my personal favorite, stated that “civil war is inevitable.” What?
Seriously? Mate, you need to get out more. England last had a civil war in the
mid-17th century and takes the view that, on balance, it is not going to make
that mistake again.
The response of Britain’s current chief prosecutor to Musk’s interventions was
that they were “not terribly helpful,” which must have driven Musk mad: British
understatement is a concept alien to most Americans, even adopted ones.
Light, as they say, is the best disinfectant, so let’s leave all this nonsense
out in the open where the rest of us can laugh at it.
So, does all this mean that Musk should be silenced? That legal muzzles and gags
should be affixed to everyone who uses social media to spread content that is
vile, hateful, racist, sexist or misogynist, that incites violence or is merely
misinformed or inaccurate, whether intentional or not?
It is true that every time Musk and his fellow social media warriors join an
online debate, their irresponsibility makes a strong case for such curbs.
Nevertheless, the answer must still surely be no. Repressive laws do not change
how people think, they merely force them underground, where they can exchange
their vile views in increasingly encrypted and undetectable echo chambers.
Light, as they say, is the best disinfectant, so let’s leave all this nonsense
out in the open where the rest of us can laugh at it.
A better solution than the law is, as with so many of society’s challenges,
education. I have the advantage of having been a journalist for my entire adult
life. Early on, I was taught healthy skepticism. Believe nothing at first
glance. Check everything. Seek reliable corroboration. Verify sources of
information. And do not just verify them, rank them according to how often they
have been right or wrong in the past. I am still occasionally fooled, as we all
are, but rarely.
It seems to me that this is precisely the sort of education that should be
introduced into our primary schools. Children who are taught from an early age
how to distinguish between online content that is genuinely useful and content
that is inaccurate and misleading will not grow into adults who believe
everything they see on TikTok.
Perhaps we should give Musk the last word: he would like that. Starmer, he
declared, was “the greatest threat to free speech in the UK.” No, Elon, he
isn’t. The greatest threat to the right to free speech comes not from those who
seek to curb it, but from those who give them ammunition by abusing it. Take a
look in the mirror.
*Ross Anderson is associate editor of Arab News.
Iran Is Shockingly Close to Nuclear Breakout Potential;
The World Must Act
Andrea Stricker/The Algemeiner/August 22/2024
إيران تقترب بشكل صادم من إمكانية تحقيق اختراق نووي؛ يجب على العالم أن يتحرك
أندريا ستريكر/موقع ألجماينر/22 أغسطس/آب 2024
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2024/08/133484/
The UN nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), will
soon issue new reporting on Iran’s nuclear program from a summer of inspections
at Tehran’s nuclear sites.
Trois questions au général Maroun Hitti: On fait la guerre
quand on veut, on la termine quand on peut/Yara Germany/ICI/22 Août, 2024
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2024/08/133498/
ثلاثة أسئلة للجنرال مارون حتي: نحن نشن الحرب عندما نريد، وننهيها عندما نستطيع
يارا جيرمني/هذه بيروت/22 آب/2024
Depuis le début des affrontements entre le Hezbollah et Israël au Liban-Sud, les
frappes israéliennes visent de plus en plus en profondeur le territoire libanais,
atteignant la banlieue sud de Beyrouth et même la Békaa. Face aux interrogations
que suscite cette évolution et à la possibilité que ces attaques marquent une
nouvelle phase de la guerre, Ici Beyrouth s’est entretenu avec le général Maroun
Hitti.
Iran and Hezbollah vowed revenge against Israel. Why
hasn't it come?
Nabih Bulos/ Los Angeles Times/August 22, 2024
لقد تعهدت إيران وحزب الله بالانتقام من إسرائيل. لماذا حتى الآن لم ينفذ تعهدهما
نبيه بولس/ لوس أنجلوس تايمز/ 22 آب/ 2024
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2024/08/133505/
After the double assassination last month of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in
Tehran and a high-ranking Hezbollah commander in Beirut, Iran and Hezbollah
vowed retaliation against Israel, saying that vengeance was a “matter of
honor.”Many braced for a response from Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah that might
trigger an all-out regional war.
But that hasn’t happened.