English LCCC Newsbulletin For
Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For April 19/2024
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news
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Bible
Quotations For today
Whoever eats of this bread will live for ever; and the bread that I will
give for the life of the world is my flesh.
John 06/48-59: “I am the bread of life. Your ancestors ate
the manna in the wilderness, and they died. This is the bread that comes
down from heaven, so that one may eat of it and not die. I am the living
bread that came down from heaven. Whoever eats of this bread will live for
ever; and the bread that I will give for the life of the world is my flesh.
’The Jews then disputed among themselves, saying, ‘How can this man give us
his flesh to eat?’ So Jesus said to them, ‘Very truly, I tell you, unless
you eat the flesh of the Son of Man and drink his blood, you have no life in
you. Those who eat my flesh and drink my blood have eternal life, and I will
raise them up on the last day; for my flesh is true food and my blood is
true drink. Those who eat my flesh and drink my blood abide in me, and I in
them. Just as the living Father sent me, and I live because of the Father,
so whoever eats me will live because of me. This is the bread that came down
from heaven, not like that which your ancestors ate, and they died. But the
one who eats this bread will live for ever.’ He said these things while he
was teaching in the synagogue at Capernaum.”
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese
Related News & Editorials published on April 18-19/2024
You are invited to watch a film about the life of Blessed Brother Estephan
Nehme, the Lebanese Maronite monk, on April 24, 25, 27
Remembering the tragic 41st Anniversary of the American Embassy explosion in
Beirut on April 18, 1983
By Elias Bejjani /April 18, 2024
Iran evacuates Hezbollah, IRGC commanders from Syria amid fears of Israeli
retaliation
Israel and Hezbollah: Fears of escalation after flurry of attacks
41 Years Since the US Embassy Bombing in Beirut
Le Point Magazine Investigates ‘The Billions of Hezbollah’
Tenenti: UNIFIL is neutral and does not support any side
South Lebanon: Israeli Attack Kills Two in Blida, Including One Hezbollah
Fighter
Israel-Hezbollah skirmishes: Latest developments
Two killed in overnight strike on Kfarkila
Franjieh open to dialogue, warns Christians against erecting 'barricades'
Presidential Talks: Quintet Ambassadors Conclude First Round
Quintet ambassadors meet Bassil in presidential talks tour
Mawlawi says 'self-security' is 'rejected and prohibited'
All you need to know about Mohammad Srour's mysterious killing
Lufthansa extends Beirut, Tehran flight suspensions
BDL initiates measures to promote electronic payments and reduce cash use
Economic crisis: IMF awaits Lebanon's reforms
Élysée Palace: Macron to receive Lebanese Prime Minister and Army Commander on
Friday
LBCI's 'Marhaba Dawle' producer hands over props following legal battle
Parliament to Convene for Plenary Session on April 25
A New Member of the “Anti-Bassil Club”
Who Intercepted Iranian Drones over Lebanon?/Alissar Boulos/This is Beirut/April
18/2024
1983 United States embassy bombing in Beirut, Lebanon/WikipediaThe April 18,
1983
Lebanon-linked operators run fake Israeli 'news site', spreading anti-Israel
sentiments
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on April 18-19/2024
US vetoes widely supported UN resolution backing full UN membership for
Palestine
US approves Rafah op. in exchange for no Israeli counter-strikes on Iran -
report
Sam Werberg: No connection between Rafah incursion and Israeli response to
Iranian attack
Netanyahu brushes off calls for restraint, saying Israel will decide how to
respond to Iran's attack
Iran Hawks Want to Strike Now. They're Wrong.
US State Department: Humanitarian situation in Gaza remains dire, Israel must do
more
Iran warns Israel at the UN against any new military action
Hamas Obstructs Hostage Negotiations
Israel bombs Gaza as Middle East tense after Iranian attack
Israel Promises Response to Iran Attack as World Leaders Urge Restraint
UNRWA head says Israel trying to end agency's operations in Gaza
Qatar says it's rethinking its mediator role
UK Fails to Designate IRGC as Terror Group Despite Iranian Attack on Israel
Suspected Iranian spy ship sails for home, leaving troubled waters as Tehran
braces for Israeli retaliation
Sexual assault and brutal beatings: Iran renews violent hijab crackdown
Iran warns Israel against attacking nuclear sites
Aida Shakarami: Iran morality police arrests dead protester's sister, mother
says
Oman, a crucial back channel between Iran and US
Iraq reaches agreement with Abu Dhabi Ports Group for joint management of Al Faw
Grand Port
When Iran Speaks Frankly, We Refuse To Believe It!/Hazem Saghieh/Asharq
Al-Awsat/April 18/2024
A Reading Of Iran’s Retaliation/Hanna Saleh/Asharq Al-Awsat/April 18/2024
Titles For The Latest English LCCC analysis &
editorials from miscellaneous sources on April 18-19/2024
Our intelligence agencies must be allowed to do that/Clifford D. May/ The
Washington Times/April 18/2024
Iran’s strikes did little damage to Israel — but analysts say Tehran benefits
anyway/RIAD KAHWAJI/April 17, 2024
The 'Better' Civilians of Gaza/Alan M. Dershowitz/Gatestone Institute./April 18,
2024
The 'Better' Civilians of Gaza/Alan M. Dershowitz/Gatestone Institute./April 18,
2024
The path that led to Iran’s attack on Israel was one of US appeasement/Richard
Goldberg/The Jewish Chronicle/April 18/2024
History has been made as Arabs fought alongside Israel/MARK DUBOWITZ/The
telegraph/April 18/ 2024
Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News &
Editorials publishedon
April 18-19/2024
You are invited to watch a film about the life of Blessed Brother
Estephan Nehme, the Lebanese Maronite monk, on April 24, 25, 27
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/128930/128930/
áÔÑÇÁ ÈØÇÞÇÊ ÇáÏÎæá ÇÊÕá ÈÔÑÈá ÈÇÓíá Úáì ÇáÑÞã ÇáÊÇáí 399-7931
(416
Elias Bejjani/Text & Audio:
Remembering the tragic 41st Anniversary of the American Embassy explosion in
Beirut on April 18, 1983
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/128989/128989/
Today, as we mark the 41st anniversary of the devastating bombing at the
American embassy in Beirut, we do so with a mix of sorrow, sadness, and anger.
This tragic event, orchestrated by the Iranian Mullahs and executed by their
terrorist proxy, Hezbollah, remains a painful chapter in the history of both
Lebanon and America.
The bombing took place amidst the tumultuous backdrop of Lebanon's internal
strife, and on that fateful day, Hezbollah, at the behest of the Iranian regime,
carried out an attack that claimed the lives of 17 Americans, 32 Lebanese, and
14 other individuals present at or near the embassy.
As we reflect on this dark chapter, it's imperative to shed light on the
reprehensible actions of the Iranian regime, not only within the Middle East,
but on a global scale. Hezbollah, as the Mullahs'
militant terrorist army,
continues to pose a significant threat to peace and stability, particularly in
Lebanon, where its influence remains pervasive.
The culpability of the Iranian regime in the 1983 bombing is indisputable, as
evidenced by overwhelming proof that implicates the Mullahs
in this heinous act of terrorism. Since its inception in 1982, Hezbollah has
been nurtured, funded, and directed by Tehran, serving as a tool to further its
destructive agenda.
The bombing of the U.S. embassy in Beirut was a stark demonstration of the
Iranian regime's disregard for human life and international norms. It
underscores their relentless pursuit of chaos and instability in pursuit of
their own interests.
It's essential to remind our beloved people of Lebanon
that Hezbollah is not a defender of their interests but a puppet of the Iranian
regime, responsible for countless atrocities and crimes against humanity. The
1983 bombing was just one episode in a long history of violence perpetrated by
Hezbollah in service of Iran's agenda.
Furthermore, Iran's aggressive, hostile and terrorism
actions, whether through Hezbollah or its other terrorist
proxies across the region, continue to undermine peace and
stability in the Middle East. Innocent civilians bear the brunt of their
expansionist and sectarian ambitions.
The Iranian regime's pursuit of nuclear capabilities and its support for
terrorist groups only serve to further destabilize the region and threaten
global security. Until the Iranian people can freely govern themselves and the
regime's reign of terror is brought to an end, true peace and stability will
remain elusive.
On this solemn anniversary, we offer our prayers and condolences to the families
of the American soldiers and Lebanese citizens who lost their lives on April 18,
1983, victims of senseless violence perpetrated by Hezbollah and its masters in
Tehran.
*The writer is a Lebanese expatriate activist
Writer's email address
Phoenicia@hotmail.com
Writer's website link
http://www.eliasbejjaninews.com
Iran evacuates Hezbollah, IRGC commanders from Syria
amid fears of Israeli retaliation
JERUSALEM POST STAFF/ APRIL 18, 2024
Amid concerns of an Israeli retaliation strike onto Iran, Iran has evacuated
IRGC and Hezbollah commanders stationed within Syria. Reports have claimed on
Wednesday that Iran is currently preparing for a potential Israeli retaliation
against its territory or proxies following Tehran's missile attack onto Israel
on Sunday. As such, Iran has allegedly removed senior Hezbollah and Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) from Syria. This comes amid US and European
pressure onto Israel to respond in a way that prevents further escalation
following Tehran's missile and drone attack over the weekend. Reports citing
Iranian officials said Wednesday claimed that that Iran is currently preparing
its air force for potential strikes, and its navy would commence escorting
Iranian commercial ships in the Red Sea. Additionally, Tehran has initiated the
evacuation of personnel from sites in Syria with a significant presence of its
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, according to Syrian and Iranian officials and
advisers. IRGC, Hezbollah mid-ranking officers relocating
IRGC and Hezbollah's mid-ranking officers are relocating from their original
positions within the country to various undocumented locations, as reported by
the Wall Street Journal citing Syrian security officials. On April 8, Hezbollah
chief Hassan Nasrallah has taken action alongside Iran's aggressive stance. He
affirmed Iran's support for Hezbollah's "resistance" and declared that the
presence of the IRGC in Syria and Lebanon dates back to 1982, following Israel's
aggression towards Lebanon. Meanwhile, Tehran has stated its intention to
retaliate against any Israeli action, indicating a departure from its
decades-long shadow conflict with Israel, primarily conducted through proxies,
to direct engagement. Hezbollah was on heightened alert during the Iranian
attack over the weekend, expecting potential Israeli retaliation targeting its
positions. However, it has since reduced its threat level, as it believes Israel
is unlikely to strike Hezbollah in Lebanon in response to Iran's attack.
Instead, Hezbollah has been advised by Iran to take precautionary measures in
Syria, where Israel could target IRGC bases, warehouses, and Hezbollah posts.
Israel has asserted that it will respond to Iran's Sunday attack, stating it's
"only a matter of how." Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed that
"Israel has a right to defend itself" addressing the notions of a counterstrike.
Israel's potential response could escalate its conflict with Hamas, backed by
Tehran, into a wider regional war, a scenario both sides aim to avoid. However,
concerns are mounting over potential misinterpretations of intentions between
Israel and Iran. To encourage Israel to limit its response, the White House
announced plans on Tuesday to impose economic sanctions on Iran. These measures
would target the IRGC, along with its missile and drone programs, while further
sanctions may impact Iran's oil industry and revenue generation capabilities.
Amassing international pressure against a strike on Iran, British Foreign
Secretary David Cameron and German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock visited
Israel on Wednesday to meet Netanyahu while emphasizing the need for
de-escalation.
Nevertheless, US officials have express concern that an Israeli counterstrike
could exacerbate regional tensions. As a result of this, they have suggested
accepting an Israeli ground invasion in Rafah instead of striking Iran.
Israel and Hezbollah: Fears of escalation after flurry
of attacks
David Gritten - BBC News/Thu, April 18, 2024
Cross-border fighting between Israeli forces and the Lebanese group Hezbollah
have intensified in recent days, raising fears of a further escalation.
Hezbollah announced on Thursday the deaths of two fighters, after the
Israeli military said it had struck sites in southern and eastern Lebanon.
On Wednesday, 14 Israeli soldiers were wounded in a missile and drone attack.
Hezbollah claimed it was a response to strikes a day earlier that the
Israeli military said killed two commanders. There
have been exchanges of fire almost every day since the day after the start of
the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza in October. Hezbollah has said it is
acting in support of the Palestinian group. Both are backed by Iran and
proscribed as terrorist organisations by Israel, the UK and other countries.
More than 330 people have been killed in Lebanon, including at least 66
civilians, according to Lebanese authorities and the UN, while the Israeli
military says 10 soldiers and eight civilians have been killed in Israel.
The hostilities have also displaced tens of thousands of people from
border communities in northern Israel and southern Lebanon.
On Thursday morning, Hezbollah's media office put out statements saying
that two fighters had been "martyred on the road to Jerusalem" - a phrase it has
been using to refer to fighters killed by Israeli fire. It named them as
Mohammed Jamil al-Shami and Ali Ahmed Hamada but provided no further details.
Lebanon's state-run National News Agency reported that two people had been
killed in an Israeli drone strike in the border village Kfarkela at dawn.
Warplanes had also targeted the nearby village of Khiam with "six strikes
and more than 100 artillery and phosphorus shells", it said.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said in a statement that its aircraft had
"eliminated two Hezbollah terrorists identified in the area or Kfarkela"
overnight. Fighter jets meanwhile "struck Hezbollah
terror targets" in area of Khiam, including infrastructure and military
structures, it added. Soldiers also "fired in order to remove an imminent
threat" there, according to the statement. On
Wednesday evening, the IDF said jets had struck "significant Hezbollah terrorist
infrastructure" used by the group's aerial defence system in northern Baalbek,
which is in the Bekaa valley in eastern Lebanon.
That came hours after Hezbollah claimed it had carried out an attack that the
IDF said injured 14 soldiers, six of them seriously and two moderately.
A number of anti-tank missiles and explosive drones were launched from
Lebanese territory towards the Israeli border village of Arab al-Aramshe,
according to the IDF. Israel's Haaretz newspaper
reported that the attack saw the anti-tank missiles hit a community centre in
the Arab Bedouin community and nearby cars, followed by the incursion of two
drones, one of which exploded on impact. It said one
of the injured soldiers was in a critical condition and that two members of an
emergency response squad and three civilians were also hurt.
The IDF said it struck the sources of the fire, as well as Hezbollah
military compounds and infrastructure in the Lebanese towns of Naqoura and
Yarine. Hezbollah said what it had targeted was the
headquarters of an Israeli military reconnaissance unit in response to "the
enemy's assassination of a number of resistance fighters in Ain Baal and
Chehabiyeh". The IDF said on Tuesday that its aircraft
had carried out strikes in those areas which killed Ismail Youssef Baaz, who it
said was the commander of Hezbollah's coastal sector in Ain Baal, and Mohammed
Hussein Mustafa Shehoury, who it said was the commander of the rockets and
missiles unit in the western region for the elite Radwan Force.
A member of that unit, Mahmoud Fadlullah, was killed alongside Shehoury,
it added. While Hezbollah confirmed the deaths of the
three men, it did not identify Baaz or Shehoury as commanders.
Fears are growing that the cross-border hostilities will escalate into a
wider regional war, particularly after Hezbollah's backer Iran launched more
than 300 drones and missiles at Israel over the weekend in retaliation for a
deadly strike on the Iranian consulate in Syria earlier this month.
The IDF said 99% of the drones and missiles were shot down by its forces,
Western allies and Arab partners, and that an airbase in southern Israel
sustained only minor damage when it was hit by four missiles. A young Bedouin
girl was injured by shrapnel. Dozens of rockets were
also fired from Lebanon at northern Israel during the attack, while launches
were also carried out from Iraq and Yemen, where Iran-backed armed groups
operate. Israel vowed to respond to Iran's
unprecedented direct attack, but Western powers have urged restraint.
41 Years Since the US Embassy Bombing in Beirut
This Is Beirut/This is Beirut/April 18/2024
The United States Embassy in Beirut published on its X account: “Today,
Ambassador Johnson and the U.S. Embassy Beirut community marked the 41st
anniversary of the 1983 Embassy bombing. Together with the families of the
victims, we honored lives that were lost and changed. Our colleagues’ legacy
continues to inspire our daily work.”The suicide bombing at the US embassy in
Beirut, on April 18, 1983, resulted in the deaths of 32 Lebanese, 17 Americans,
and 14 visitors and bystanders. Among the victims were primarily embassy and CIA
personnel, alongside several US soldiers and one US Marine Security Guard.
Le Point Magazine Investigates ‘The Billions of Hezbollah’
This Is Beirut/April 18/2024
The French weekly magazine “Le Point” released an extensive investigative series
titled “Islamism, Terrorism, and Cocaine – The Billions of Hezbollah,” with a
cover page photo depicting Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and Hezbollah’s
Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah. The 20-page file, divided into five
headlines, investigated Hezbollah’s illegal and worldwide financing methods,
spanning Iran, Colombia, Lebanon, and France. Le Point described Hezbollah as a
“multinational organization of terrorism, crime, and drug trafficking,” tracing
its drug trafficking networks in several South American countries, including
Colombia, Venezuela, and Paraguay, which it has controlled for over thirty
years. “According to experts, the laundering of cocaine money has now become
Hezbollah’s second-largest source of income, after subsidies from Tehran,” Le
Point said. Another uncommon funding source for the pro-Iranian party is
cryptocurrency, where “1.7 million dollars in digital assets were seized in June
2023.”Furthermore, the report analyzed Hezbollah’s status as a “militia” that
has superseded a “quasi-failed” Lebanese state by fighting Israel from southern
Lebanon since October 8, in support of Hamas. The file also dissects the Middle
East’s situation against the backdrop of the Gaza war, as well as the risks of a
regional escalation. In addition, the magazine
explores the “tentacles” of the pro-Iranian group through its conveyors and
supporters in France, which it qualified as “a discreet network, monitored but
tolerated by the authorities.”The file also comprised a takeout titled “five
lessons to be learned” from the Iranian attack on Israel, which the French
Weekly described as “a game of deterrence” that has become “dangerous.”
Tenenti: UNIFIL is neutral and does not support any side
LBCI/April 18/2024
Andrea Tenenti, the official spokesperson for UNIFIL, emphasized that UNIFIL is
neutral and does not conduct surveillance activities or support any side,
pointing out that the only thing it supports is peace. In response to a question
from the National News Agency, Tenenti stated, "We have taken note of the
incorrect reports that contribute to creating a serious misunderstanding
regarding UNIFIL's mandate and the nature of its work." He added, "The pursuit
of peace through the implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701 is
the reason for our presence here, and that is why we will continue to carry out
the tasks entrusted to us." Tenenti continued, "False allegations can put the
men and women who work for peace at risk, while the mission strives to
de-escalate tensions, prevent misunderstandings, and support local communities
during this challenging time.'' He further stated, ''This is achieved through
patrols, about 20 percent of which are coordinated with the Lebanese Armed
Forces, and reporting violations on both sides of the Blue Line, as well as
through unique communication channels designed to avoid misunderstandings and
further escalation."
Tenenti emphasized that inciting language can lead to a very dangerous
situation, saying, "Peace and stability are our only objectives. They are the
reason we were invited here by the Lebanese government and granted a mandate by
the UN Security Council."
South Lebanon: Israeli Attack Kills Two in Blida, Including
One Hezbollah Fighter
This Is Beirut/April 18/2024
On Thursday, an Israeli strike on a house in the southern village of Blida
killed two people, including one Hezbollah fighter, and wounded two others.
Hezbollah had already lost two of its fighters in a dawn raid the same day, on
the village of Kfar Kila. The exchange of artillery
fire between the pro-Iranian group and the Israeli army continued unabated on
the Southern front, where a second house, this time in Markaba, was also the
target of a drone attack. At the same time, Hezbollah was bombarding Northern
Israel, where sirens sounded several times during the day for fear of drone
infiltration. In the afternoon, Hezbollah fired a salvo of rockets in the
direction of Arab al-Aramsha, where it had targeted an Israeli air control base
the previous day, wounding fourteen soldiers. The pro-Iranian group also
announced that it had targeted five gatherings of Israeli soldiers in Zebdine,
Rweissat al-Alam, Malkiya, Hanita and al-Marj. The latter also said it had
targeted several buildings used by “enemy soldiers,” including two in the Yaroun
settlement and a third in the Manara settlement. The Hezb also announced the
death of one of its fighters, Hussein Ali Sajid. For its part, the Civil Defense
reported on its X account that the Khiam-Marjeyoun road was closed to traffic,
because “its teams were clearing areas where destruction was caused by an
Israeli air strike that targeted Khiam on Wednesday, with phosphorus bombs.”
Israel-Hezbollah skirmishes: Latest developments
Naharnet/April 18/2024
Israeli warplanes on Thursday targeted a house in the southern border town of
Blida, the National News Agency said. “Ambulance crews are heading to the
location,” NNA added. An Israeli drone had earlier bombed a home on the eastern
outskirts of Markaba. Hezbollah meanwhile announced fresh attacks on Israeli
posts and troops, saying it attacked the Malkia, al-Marj and Hanita positions.
It also announced an overnight attack on an Israeli force that was trying to
remove a targeted military vehicle from the Metula post. The new attack caused
“certain casualties,” Hezbollah added.It had announced the death of two of its
fighters overnight in the town of Kfarkela. Israel and Hezbollah have been
exchanging near-daily cross-border fire since Israel started its war on Gaza.
The violence has killed at least 368 people in Lebanon, mostly Hezbollah
fighters but also at least 70 civilians, according to an AFP tally. In Israel,
the military says 10 soldiers and eight civilians have been killed near the
northern border since hostilities began. Tens of thousands of civilians have
fled their homes on both sides of the border, with the violence fuelling fears
of all-out conflict between Hezbollah and Israel, which last went to war in
2006.
Two killed in overnight strike on Kfarkila
Agence France Presse/April 18/2024
Two Hezbollah members were killed Thursday in an overnight strike on the
southern border town of Kfarkila, as tensions flared on the Lebanese-Israeli
border.Israeli warplanes and artillery also heavily bombed the town of al-Khiam,
including with white phosphorus bombs, while a drone targeted a house in
Markaba. Hezbollah said it attacked Thursday an
Israeli force and a group of soldiers in the Metula and the Malkia posts. Israel
and Hezbollah have been exchanging near-daily cross-border fire since the Israel
started its war on Gaza. But Hezbollah strikes in the past few days have
included a growing use of explosive drones and wounded people in Israel, which
has struck increasingly deeper into Lebanon in recent weeks.
Hezbollah attacked on Wednesday an Israeli army base in Arab al-Aramshe,
an Arab-majority village in northern Israel near the border, wounding 14
soldiers, including six seriously. Hours after the strike, Israeli forces hit
targets in eastern Lebanon. The strikes targeted a warehouse in Iaat, a
residential area near Baalbek, and lightly wounded one man, a Hezbollah source
told AFP. The Israeli military said its "fighter jets struck significant
Hezbollah terrorist infrastructure" used by the group's air defense in the
Baalbek area. The official National News Agency
reported three drone strikes in the area, a Hezbollah stronghold far from the
border with Israel. An AFP photographer said the
warehouse that was hit stored vegetables and agricultural produce. On Tuesday,
Israeli strikes in south Lebanon killed two local Hezbollah commanders and
another operative. On Monday, Hezbollah targeted Israeli troops with explosive
devices, wounding four soldiers who crossed into Lebanese territory, the first
such attack in six months of clashes. The violence has killed at least 368
people in Lebanon, mostly Hezbollah fighters but also at least 70 civilians,
according to an AFP tally. In Israel, the military says 10 soldiers and eight
civilians have been killed near the northern border since hostilities began.
Tens of thousands of civilians have fled their homes on both sides of the
border, with the violence fuelling fears of all-out conflict between Hezbollah
and Israel, which last went to war in 2006.
Franjieh open to dialogue, warns Christians against
erecting 'barricades'
Naharnet/April 18/2024
Marada Movement chief Suleiman Franjieh on Thursday held talks in Bkirki with
Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi. “We’re open to ever dialogue and we’re all
working for the safety of Christians, not their security as some are proposing,”
said Franjieh after the meeting, apparently accusing rival Christian parties of
seeking to be in charge of security in certain areas. Christians’ “safety”
cannot be achieved “through intimidation or from behind barricades,” Franjieh
added. As for his presidential nomination, the Marada chief said his candidacy
“does not undermine the democratic process but rather consolidates it.” “We will
attend any dialogue we’re invited to in an official manner, but we will not
attend bilateral dialogues aimed at cornering a certain party,” he added. “I’m
doing what my conscience and Arab and Christian identity dictate on me and some
of the National Moderation bloc MPs will vote for me,” Franjieh went on to say.
Presidential Talks: Quintet Ambassadors Conclude First
Round
This Is Beirut/April 18/2024
The ambassadors of the quintet committee (United States, France, Saudi Arabia,
Egypt, and Qatar) continued on Thursday their meetings with various Lebanese
parties and officials, which they had started on Tuesday, aiming to unblock the
presidential election. Egyptian Ambassador Alaa Moussa announced that the
quintet “concluded on Thursday the first round of meetings with political blocs,
which will be followed by a meeting with House Speaker Nabih Berri, probably
early next week.”According to Moussa, “the general atmosphere is positive,” even
if it is “necessary to work further on the issue of trust, with a view to
breaking the deadlock in the presidential election.” “Common ground exists, but
it is also very important to extend it further, which is what the Group of Five
is currently working on,” he continued, hoping to achieve “concrete results in
the next phase.”Moussa’s comments came after meetings with the head of the Free
Patriotic Movement (FPM) Gebran Bassil and MPs from Hezbollah’s bloc. The
meeting with Bassil took place in the absence of the US ambassador, Lisa
Johnson, because of US sanctions against him for corruption. Johnson and the
Saudi ambassador Walid Boukhari did not take part in the discussions with the
Hezbollah parliamentary bloc. Bassil has reportedly
told the ambassadors that he supports a dialogue on the presidential election if
there is a guarantee that it would be followed by an electoral session, the
local al-Markazia agency said, citing sources close to the FPM chief.
According to the same sources, Bassil expressed his preference for a
prior consensus on a candidate for the head of state. At the end of the meeting,
Moussa and Bassil agreed on “the need to speed up the election of a president of
the Republic and to hold consultations between the various political poles to
this end.”Bassil also called for separating the developments in southern Lebanon
and the presidential election. “On the contrary,” he said, “what is happening in
the region (the war in Gaza, editor’s note) should be an incentive to finalize
this dossier as soon as possible.”French ambassador Hervé Magro, Qatari
ambassador Saoud ben Abdel Rahman al-Thani, and the Egyptian ambassador then
visited Haret Hreik, where the head of the Hezbollah bloc, MP Mohammad Raad,
reiterated his party’s position that it is in favor of dialogue between
parliamentarians on the presidential issue, provided that it is led by the
Speaker of Parliament, Nabih Berri, and without preconditions.
At the end of their tour, the five ambassadors held an evaluation meeting
at Alaa Moussa’s residence.
Quintet ambassadors meet Bassil in presidential talks tour
Naharnet/April 18/2024
Four ambassadors of the five-nation group for Lebanon met Thursday with Free
Patriotic Movement leader Jebran Bassil at his residence in Bayyada, as they
resumed their meetings for a second day in Beirut. The ambassadors of Egypt,
France, KSA, and Qatar agreed with Bassil on separating the clashes between
Israel and Hezbollah in the south from the presidential file, Egyptian
Ambassador Alaa Moussa said after the meeting. The quintet's ambassadors had met
Wednesday with Marada leader Suleiman Franjieh, Kataeb leader Sami Gemayel, and
the National Moderation bloc MPs. The ambassadors will meet with other
politicians this week and end their tour with a meeting with Parliament Speaker
Nabih Berri, in an attempt to end the presidential impasse in Lebanon.
Crisis-hit Lebanon has been without a president since Michel Aoun's term ended
in October 2022, with neither of the two main blocs -- Hezbollah and its
opponents -- having the majority required to elect one. The international
community and the five-nation group have long urged Lebanese leaders to end
months of political wrangling and stem the financial meltdown. Moussa said after
the meetings Wednesday that the quintet is trying "to build bridges" and
"increase trust" between the Lebanese parties. He said that "common ground is
increasing day after day."Al-Jadeed TV reported Thursday that the ambassadors of
Egypt, France, and Qatar also met with the Loyalty to Resistance bloc, and that
the bloc's head Mohammad Raad told them that Hezbollah is open to a dialogue
that would be chaired by Berri.
Mawlawi says 'self-security' is 'rejected and prohibited'
Naharnet/April 18/2024
Caretaker Interior Minister Bassam Mawlawi on Thursday stressed that security
agencies will “prevent any form of strife.”“All security agencies will not
accept any form of self-security,” Mawlawi added, emphasizing that “Lebanon will
not accept self-security, which is rejected and prohibited.”His remarks come
after the disappearance and murder of Lebanese Forces official Pascal Sleiman at
the hands of a Syrian gang pushed some in Lebanon to call for “self-security” in
certain regions. “We will not allow security tensions
on Lebanese soil,” Mawlawi added. “Resolving problems
should be through resorting to the law and constitution and enforcing the
Interior Ministry’s circulars,” the minister said. Noting that “Lebanon cannot
bear economic refugees,” Mawlawi called on municipalities to implement the laws
while reassuring that the army and security forces will be keen on preserving
order and security. Mawlawi had on Monday announced that there are 1.2 million
unregistered Syrians in Lebanon. “Out of two million displaced Syrians, there
are only 300,000 who have residency permits while 800,000 are registered and 1.2
million are unregistered,” Mawlawi said. Mawlawi said earlier in April that
Pascal Sleiman’s murder signals the need to restrict the number of refugees
entering the country from neighboring Syria.
All you need to know about Mohammad Srour's mysterious
killing
Associated Press/April 18/2024
Lebanon's interior minister has alleged that the mysterious abduction and
killing of a Hezbollah-linked Lebanese currency exchanger in a villa on the edge
of a quiet mountain resort town earlier this month was likely the work of
Israeli operatives.
The killing of Mohammad Srour, 57, who was sanctioned by the U.S., was like
something out of an international spy thriller. Pistols equipped with silencers
and gloves were found in a bucket of water and chemicals at the scene,
apparently intended to remove fingerprints and other evidence, Interior Minister
Bassam Mawlawi said in an interview with The Associated Press. Thousand of
dollars in cash were left scattered around Srour's body, as if to dispel any
speculation that robbery was the motive. "Lebanese security agencies have
suspicion or accusations that Mossad was behind this operation," Mawlawi said,
referring to the Israeli spy agency. "The way the crime was carried out led to
this suspicion."
He provided no specific evidence for his allegations. Mawlawi said the
investigation is still ongoing and once it's over the results will be made
public and referred to judicial authorities. The Israeli prime minister's
office, which oversees Mossad, did not immediately respond to a request for
comment. The suspicion by Lebanon's security agencies that the crime could be
the work of Israeli agents comes at a time when Lebanon's southern border region
has been rocked by ongoing clashes between militants of the Hamas-allied
Hezbollah group and Israeli troops. The U.S. Treasury sanctioned Srour in 2019
over his alleged money transfers from Iran through Hezbollah to the Palestinian
militant group Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
"Mohammad Srour's activity in money exchange is known, as are the transfers of
money from which side to which side," Mawlawi said.
Srour's killing earlier this month, came as U.S. and Israeli officials have been
trying to crack down on transfers of funds to Hamas. The push has intensified
following the Oct. 7 Hamas-led attack on southern Israel that triggered the
devastating war in Gaza and its ripple effects around the region.
Last month, a senior U.S. Treasury official visiting Beirut pressed Lebanese
authorities to prevent funds from being funneled to Hamas through the tiny
country. Jesse Baker, deputy assistant secretary of the Treasury for Asia and
the Middle East in the Office of Terrorist Financing and Financial Crimes, met
with top Lebanese political and financial officials. Israel's military said it
has killed a number of money exchangers in Gaza for allegedly funding Hamas.
Srour's killing was clearly planned in advance. Three Lebanese judicial
officials familiar with the investigation told the AP that a man posing as a
customer had contacted Srour from abroad and asked him to deliver a cash
transfer to a woman in the mountain resort of Beit Meri.
The officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the investigation is
ongoing, said Srour first went with his nephew and left after handing the woman
the money. He was contacted by the same person with another request a day after
his first visit, the officials said. This time he went alone, after which his
family lost contact with him.Mawlawi said the cellular the woman used to contact
Srour was only activated to contact him. He said the perpetrators had first
tried to rent an apartment in Beirut's southeastern suburb of Hazmieh, a detail
that has not been previously reported, but later cancelled, apparently because
"they did not find (the apartment) suitable to carry out the operation."
Mawlawi said the killers then shifted to the quiet town of Beit Meri, famous for
its posh homes with red-brick roofs, sprawling forest and Roman-era
archaeological site, where they rented a three-story villa on the edge of the
town using fake Lebanese identity cards. The country's General Security
Directorate is looking into the identities of people who entered and left the
country around the period of the killing, he said. Srour went missing on April 3
in Beit Meri, and his body was found a week later in the villa. Mawlawi said
investigators found "a large number of bullet" wounds in different parts of his
body, including his arms and legs. He was reportedly handcuffed. The villa is
located on a quiet side street lush with trees.
"We did not hear anything," said Christian Francis who lives across the street
from the villa where Srour was killed. He added that most people have dogs in
the highly secured area where municipal police have a checkpoint nearby and the
Lebanese army has a post few hundred meters (yards) away.
Beit Meri's mayor, Roy Abou Chedid, told the AP that the apartment was rented in
late February to an unknown person for one year for $48,000. He added that the
family that owns the villa did not register the rental contract at the
municipality but had paid its municipal taxes on time in November.
"The operation was carried out in a way that is more than professional," Abou
Chedid said, adding that the neighbors did not suspect anything and it took
security agencies some time to locate which house Srour's body was in.
A Hezbollah spokesperson declined to comment on the killing citing the ongoing
investigation. The spokesperson refused to say whether Srour was a Hezbollah
member but said that he worked in the past for the al-Qard al-Hasan Association,
the financial arm of the Iran-backed group.
Israel has a long history of targeted killings in Lebanon, including drone
strikes that have killed high-ranking Hezbollah commanders over the past six
months. At least 260 Hezbollah members have been killed by Israel in that
period.
The U.S. has accused Srour of transferring tens of millions of dollars annually
from Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to Hamas' military wing, the
Qassam Brigades, alleging that starting in 2014, Srour "was identified as in
charge of all money transfers" from the IRGC to the Qassam Brigades.
Srour's family members have not given media interviews since his body was found
but said in a televised statement that all his financial transactions were
transparent and he simply worked in currency exchange. They urged security
agencies to swiftly find the perpetrators. During Srour's funeral in his
hometown of Labweh in northeast Lebanon, a Hezbollah flag was flown over his
coffin and scores of men and women chanted "death to America and death to
Israel" as they marched toward the cemetery.
Lufthansa extends Beirut, Tehran flight suspensions
Agence France Presse/April 18/2024
German airline giant Lufthansa on Thursday extended its suspension of flights to
and from Tehran and Beirut to the end of April and said its planes would
continue avoiding Iranian airspace. "Our flights to Tehran and Beirut are
cancelled up to and including 30 April and we are still not using Iranian
airspace until the same date," a spokesman for the airline told AFP.
BDL initiates measures to promote electronic payments and reduce cash use
LBCI/April 18/2024
The Banque du Liban (BDL) has announced ongoing efforts to encourage the use of
electronic payment methods and reduce reliance on cash transactions in the
Lebanese market, aligning with international standards, particularly those
related to combating money laundering and terrorist financing. In a statement,
the BDL highlighted its collaboration with stakeholders, including MasterCard
and Visa, to promote the use of payment cards. Among these efforts is a focus on
reducing the cost of using payment cards, especially those issued abroad and
used within the Lebanese market.
Expressing gratitude for the cooperation of global companies like Visa and
MasterCard, the BDL expressed hope that the initiatives would yield results
soon. Furthermore, banks and financial institutions
were urged to provide all necessary facilitations to ensure electronic payment
services, with minimal costs for consumers. Any additional charges imposed on
consumers were deemed unlawful and detrimental to the national economy.
Additionally, in coordination with the Finance Ministry, the BDL is working on a
project to accept payment cards for tax payments at all Finance Ministry
branches across Lebanon, facilitated by the installation of Point of Sale (POS)
machines. It is worth noting that the BDL previously issued Circular No. 165
regarding the clearance and settlement of checks and cash transfers in US
dollars and Lebanese lira through BDL. The use of "fresh" dollars transfers and
checks has increased, serving as a secure and primary alternative to cash
payments. In 2023, Circular No. 69 was amended
concerning electronic payments, granting licenses to several electronic wallets
that meet the required criteria. These wallets allow users to transfer money
instantly and securely between merchants and individuals in compliance with
relevant laws and regulations. The BDL emphasized that these measures have begun
to effectively reduce cash transactions in the Lebanese market gradually.
Economic crisis: IMF awaits Lebanon's reforms
LBCI/April 18/2024
The acting Banque du Liban (BDL) governor, Wassim Mansouri, has not reported any
new developments regarding Lebanon to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
However, officials at the IMF remain in a state of anticipation, hoping
that Lebanon will enact the reform laws that will ultimately lead to an
agreement on a recovery plan.Reform laws are seen as the pathway to a final
agreement with the IMF. Restructuring the banking sector and recovering deposits
after clarifying responsibilities and figures could lead to a final agreement
with the IMF. The initial agreement was reached in April 2022 and involved
assistance worth $3 billion. Mansouri expanded his meetings to include officials
at the US Treasury Department. He relayed their statement that Lebanese banks
are committed to international standards in combating terrorism financing and
money laundering and that the green light is still in place for correspondent
banks to deal with them. Mansouri conveyed their message, including that the
Americans are also willing to assist in further measures to enhance anti-money
laundering measures, counter-terrorism financing, and reduce the cash economy.
Nonetheless, they are still awaiting an active role from the Lebanese judiciary
in pursuing those involved in money laundering and terrorism financing, a step
that has not been taken as effectively as needed so far.
Élysée Palace: Macron to receive Lebanese Prime Minister
and Army Commander on Friday
LBCI/April 18/2024
The Élysée Palace confirmed on Thursday that French President Emmanuel Macron
will receive Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati and Army Commander Joseph Aoun
on Friday.
LBCI's 'Marhaba Dawle' producer hands over props following legal battle
LBCI/April 18/2024
In a recent update on the ongoing legal battle initiated by the Lebanese state,
lawyer Riad Halij attended the Information Branch on behalf of Firas Hatoum, the
producer of LBCI's "Marhaba Dawle" program. Early on Thursday, Hatoum wrote on
the "X" platform: "Since my personal attendance would be unnecessary, lawyer
Riad Halij will represent me in delivering the clothes and [plastic] weapons
featured in the 'Marhaba Dawle' series."Later, he posted a video with the
caption: "We handed over the seized items." Since January, the Lebanese state
has initiated a legal battle against the "Marhaba Dawle" program, by filing a
lawsuit against the series seeking to suspend it, and more recently, by
summoning the program's producer, Firas Hatoum, to the Internal Security Forces
(ISF). Based on Hatoum, he was summoned for using ISF uniforms (costumes) and
(fake) weapons.
Parliament to Convene for Plenary Session on April 25
This Is Beirut/April 18/2024
Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri has called for a plenary legislative session
on Thursday, April 25th, at 11:00 AM. Two draft laws are under double urgency.
The first draft law, introduced by Jihad Al-Samad, seeks to extend the
terms of municipal councils and mukhtars until May 31, 2025. The second aims to
delineate the applicable laws for tenured Civil Defense volunteers. This text
was jointly presented by Jihad Al-Samad, Ali Hassan Khalil, Ibrahim Kanaan,
Amine Cherri, Toni Frangieh, and Hassan Mrad.
A New Member of the “Anti-Bassil Club”
This Is Beirut/April 18/2024
After being elected vice president of the Free Patriotic Movement, sources close
to the Aounist party indicate that May Khreish left the ranks of the FPM and
submitted her resignation to join the group of supporters of former President
Michel Aoun who had left the orange formation, as they no longer recognized
themselves in him after he abandoned the sovereign camp and allied himself with
Hezbollah despite the latter’s position in the Iranian axis and the
implementation of its agenda in the region. Khreish would thus be part of the
“club” of ex-supporters of the founder of the FPM, notably because of the
political performance of Aoun’s son-in-law, Gebran Bassil, and his political
choices.
Who Intercepted Iranian Drones over Lebanon?
Alissar Boulos/This is Beirut/April 18/2024
On Saturday, April 13, just before midnight, Iran launched more than 300 drones
and missiles towards Israel in a first-of-its-kind direct attack. The reasons
and consequences of this attack have been extensively analyzed in newsrooms, on
television sets, and in diplomatic and decision-making centers around the world.
The barrage included 170 drones, over 30 cruise missiles and 120
ballistic missiles, which were launched from Iran as well as from Iraq and
Yemen. These projectiles followed different trajectories, and some of them were
spotted over Lebanese territory, where they were intercepted.
Intercepted, but by whom?
According to retired General and Director-General of the Regional Forum for
Consultation and Studies Khaled Hamadeh, there is no information on the number
of missiles that flew over Lebanese territory. “What we know is that the
missiles spotted over Lebanon were launched from Iraq, specifically from the Abu
Kamal region, bordering Syria,” General Hamadeh explains.
These missiles were spotted around 2 AM on the night from Saturday to
Sunday, over several regions of Lebanon from north to south. Some Lebanese also
witnessed the impressive sight of their destruction. According to General
Hamadeh, the interception took place from the sea and was carried out by the US
fleet and allied forces in the Mediterranean. “All air and naval forces deployed
in the Mediterranean intervened, including the United States, the United Kingdom
and France,” he continued.
Contacted by This Is Beirut, Riad Kahwaji, Dubai-based Middle East security and
defense analyst, and director of the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military
Analysis (INEGMA), specifies that the missiles flying over Lebanon were shot
down by Israeli, American and British fighter jets using heat-guided air-to-air
missiles. “It is not possible to know the number of missiles that flew over
Lebanon,” he adds.
Where are the fighter jets based?
According to the British press, the Typhoon jets of the Royal Air Force (RAF)
neutralized a number of drones en route to Israel. The United Kingdom has a
military base, named Akrotiri, in Cyprus, which is used as an advanced
deployment base for British military operations in the Middle East.
British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak had announced on Sunday that the Royal Air
Force had dispatched fighter jets and refueling aircraft to the region to
reinforce Operation Shader, the British operation against Daesh in Iraq and
Syria.
When contacted by This Is Beirut, the press office of the British Ministry of
Defense specified that it had “not yet provided details” about the drones,
adding that RAF aircraft were operating as part of the Daesh combat mission in
Iraq and Syria, which takes place in the airspace of these two countries. The
press office also did not want to specify whether RAF aircraft had participated
in intercepting drones over Lebanon. According to Riad Kahwaji, American and
British fighter jets took off from Qatar and Cyprus respectively, and were
positioned above Syria when they intercepted the missiles. It is worth noting
that Qatar is home to Al-Udeid, the largest American base in the Middle East.
Furthermore, US President Joe Biden had stated on Saturday that the US
military had deployed planes and destroyers to the region during the week
preceding the Iranian attack. “Thanks to these deployments and the extraordinary
skills of our military, we helped Israel shoot down nearly all of the drones and
missiles,” according to a White House statement.
France, for its part, carried out “interceptions” of Iranian missiles and drones
targeting Israel on the night from Saturday to Sunday at the request of Jordan,
French President Emmanuel Macron confirmed during a televised interview on
Monday. “We took off our planes and intercepted what we had to intercept,” he
said. Since 2014, French fighter jets have been
deployed in Jordan as part of the international coalition against Daesh. The
projected air base (BAP) in the Levant is located within the Jordanian Prince
Hassan base, also called H5, northeast of Amman (France also has a base in the
United Arab Emirates). French Foreign Minister
Stéphane Séjourné had stated in a television news program, “We have taken our
responsibilities because we are actors in regional security. The Iranian attack
also threatened the security of our forces,” adding that France had
“participated in interception actions.” However, no details were given on
whether France was involved in intercepting drones over Lebanon.
It is worth noting that according to General Hamadeh, Lebanon was never in
danger because drones and missiles are guided military projectiles.
However, Tuesday afternoon, residents of al-Bennay in the mountain region
of Aley heard a loud explosion. It was that of an Iranian drone that had fallen
in a wooded area. The Lebanese army had established a security cordon in the
area and detonated the drone on the spot.
Background/Archive
1983 United States embassy bombing in Beirut, Lebanon
WikipediaThe April 18, 1983
United States embassy bombing was a suicide bombing in Beirut, Lebanon, that
killed 32 Lebanese, 17 Americans, and 14 visitors and passers-by. The victims
were mostly embassy and CIA staff members, but also included several US soldiers
and one US Marine Security Guard. It was the deadliest attack on a US diplomatic
mission up to that time, and was considered the beginning of Islamist attacks on
US targets.
The attack came in the wake of an intervention in the Lebanese Civil War by the
United States and other Western countries, which sought to restore order and
central government authority.
The car bomb was detonated by a suicide bomber driving a van packed with nearly
2,000 pounds (910 kg) of explosives at approximately 1:00 p.m. (GMT+2) April 18,
1983. The van, originally sold in Texas, bought used and shipped to the Gulf,[1]
gained access to the embassy compound and parked under the portico at the very
front of the building, where it exploded. Former CIA operative Robert Baer's
account says that the van broke through an outbuilding, crashed through the
lobby door and exploded there.[2] The blast collapsed the entire central facade
of the horseshoe-shaped building, leaving the wreckage of balconies and offices
in heaped tiers of rubble, and spewing masonry, metal and glass fragments in a
wide swath. The explosion was heard throughout West Beirut and broke windows as
far as a mile away. Rescue workers worked around the clock, unearthing the dead
and wounded.
Robert S. Dillon, then Ambassador to Lebanon, recounted the attack in his oral
history:
All of a sudden, the window blew in. I was very lucky, because I had my arm and
the T-shirt in front of my face, which protected me from the flying glass. I
ended up flat on my back. I never heard the explosion. Others said that it was
the loudest explosion they ever heard. It was heard from a long distance away.
As I lay on the floor on my back, the brick wall behind my desk blew out.
Everything seemed to happen in slow motion. The wall fell on my legs; I could
not feel them. I thought they were gone. The office filled with smoke, dust, and
tear gas. What happened was that the blast first blew in the window and then
traveled up an air shaft from the first floor to behind my desk. We had had tear
gas canisters on the first floor. The blast set them off so that the air rush
that came up through the shaft brought the tear gas with it and also collapsed
the wall.
We didn't know what had happened. The central stairway was gone, but the
building had another stairway, which we used to make our way down, picking our
way through the rubble. We were astounded to see the damage below us. I didn't
realize that the entire bay of the building below my office had been destroyed.
I hadn't grasped that yet. I remember speculating that some people had
undoubtedly been hurt. As we descended, we saw people hurt. Everybody had this
funny white look because they were all covered with dust. They were staggering
around.
We got to the second floor, still not fully cognizant of how bad it was,
although I recognized that major damage had been done. With each second, the
magnitude of the explosion became clearer. I saw Marylee MacIntyre standing; she
couldn't see because her face had been cut and her eyes were full of blood. I
picked her up and took her over to a window and gave her to someone. A minute
later, someone came up to me and said that Bill MacIntyre was dead; he had just
seen the body. That was the first time I realized that people had been killed. I
didn't know how many, but I began to understand how bad the blast had been.[3]
A total of 63 people were killed in the bombing: 32 Lebanese employees, 17
Americans, and 14 visitors and passers-by.[4] Of the Americans killed, eight
worked for the Central Intelligence Agency, including the CIA's top Middle East
analyst and Near East director, Robert Ames, Station Chief Kenneth Haas, James
Lewis and most of the Beirut staff of the CIA. Others killed included William R.
McIntyre, deputy director of the United States Agency for International
Development, two of his aides, and four US military personnel. Janet Lee
Stevens, an American journalist, human rights advocate, and scholar of Arabic
literature, was also among the dead. Lebanese victims included clerical workers
at the embassy, visa applicants waiting in line and nearby motorists and
pedestrians.[5] An additional 120 or so people were wounded in the bombing.
US President Ronald Reagan on April 18 denounced the "vicious terrorist bombing"
as a "cowardly act," saying, "This criminal act on a diplomatic establishment
will not deter us from our goals of peace in the region."[6] Two envoys, Philip
C. Habib and Morris Draper, continued their peace mission in Beirut to discuss
Lebanese troop withdrawals with a renewed sense of urgency.
The next day, Ambassador Robert Dillon, who had narrowly escaped injury in the
bombing, said: "Paramount among the essential business is our work for the
withdrawal of all foreign forces from Lebanon." It is only by securing Lebanese
government control over the country "that terrible tragedies like the one we
experienced yesterday can be avoided in the future."[5]
The President of Lebanon, Amine Gemayel, cabled President Reagan on April 18,
saying, "The Lebanese people and myself express our deepest condolences to the
families of the U.S. victims. The cross of peace is the burden of the
courageous."[5] Meanwhile, Lebanon asked the United States, France, and Italy to
double the size of the peacekeeping force. As of March 16, it numbered about
4,800 troops, including some 1,200 US Marines, 1,400 Italian soldiers, 2,100
French paratroopers and 100 British soldiers.
Iran denied any role in the attack. Foreign Minister, Ali Akbar Velayati said,
"We deny any involvement and we think this allegation is another propaganda plot
against us."[7]
On April 19, Prime Minister Menachem Begin of Israel sent President Reagan a
message of condolence for the embassy bombing. "I write in the name of Israel
when I express to you my deep shock at the terrible outrage which took the lives
of so many of the American embassy in Beirut yesterday."[5] Defense Minister
Moshe Arens, was quoted by Israeli radio that he told the cabinet the attack
"justified Israel's demands for security arrangements in Lebanon." Minister
Yitzhak Shamir of Israel called the embassy bombing "shocking" but added that,
"In Lebanon nothing is surprising. I think the lesson is simple and understood.
The security problems in Lebanon are still most serious, and terrorist
organizations will continue to operate there, at times with great success."[5]
US Congressional response
The House Foreign Affairs Committee April 19 voted to approve $251 million in
additional economic and military aid for Lebanon, as requested by the
administration. But it attached an amendment to the bill that would force the
White House to seek approval for any expanded US military role.
The Senate Foreign Relations Committee followed suit April 20, approving the aid
request but attaching an amendment that required the president to obtain
congressional authorization for "any substantial expansion in the number or role
of US armed forces in Lebanon or for the creation of a new, expanded or extended
multinational peacekeeping force in Lebanon." If Congress did not act jointly on
such a request within 60 days, however, the increase would then take effect
automatically.
The Senate amendment was sponsored as a compromise by the committee's chairman,
Republican Charles H. Percy of Illinois. It prevented a move by the committee's
ranking Democrat, Claiborne Pell of Rhode Island, to extend the 1973 War Powers
Resolution to Lebanon. On April 20, Pell said he would have had the votes to
apply the resolution to US Marines in Lebanon. The law limited presidential
commitment of troops in hostile situations to a maximum of 90 days unless
Congress specifically approved their use.
Deputy Secretary of State Kenneth W. Dam, in a letter to the committee, had
argued forcefully against use of the War Powers Resolution. Dam said it would
"amount to a public finding that US forces will be exposed to imminent risk of
involvement in hostilities", which "could give entirely the wrong public
impression" of US expectations for Lebanon's future. Several influential
congressmen had been urging an end to the US military role in Lebanon. After the
embassy bombing, April 19, Republican Senator Barry Goldwater of Arizona said,
"I think it's high time we bring the boys home."
Responsibility
A pro-Iranian group calling itself the Islamic Jihad Organization took
responsibility for the bombing in a telephone call to a news office immediately
after the blast. The anonymous caller said, "This is part of the Iranian
Revolution's campaign against imperialist targets throughout the world. We shall
keep striking at any crusader presence in Lebanon, including the international
forces."[8] The group had earlier taken responsibility for a grenade attack in
which five U.S. members of the international peacekeeping force had been
wounded.
Judge John Bates of the US District Court in Washington, D.C. on September 8,
2003, awarded in a default judgment $123 million to 29 American victims and
family members of Americans killed in the bombing. Judge Royce Lamberth of the
US District Court in Washington, D.C. on May 30, 2003, determined that the
bombing was carried out by the militant group Hezbollah with the approval and
financing of senior Iranian officials, paving the way for the victims to seek
damages. Iran was not present in court to challenge witnesses nor present
evidence of their own.
Other effects
Following the attack, the embassy was moved to a supposedly more secure location
in East Beirut. However, on September 20, 1984, another car bomb exploded at
this embassy annex, killing twenty Lebanese and two American soldiers.
The April bombing was one of the first suicide attacks in the region. Other
suicide car bombings over the next eight months included one against the US and
French embassies in Kuwait, a second attack on Israeli Army's headquarters in
Tyre, and the extremely destructive attacks on the US Marine and French
Paratrooper barracks in Beirut on October 23, 1983. Along with the Marine
Barracks bombing, the 1983 US Embassy bombing prompted the Inman Report, a
review of overseas security for the US Department of State. This in turn
prompted the creation of the Bureau of Diplomatic Security and the Diplomatic
Security Service within the State Department.
Lebanon-linked operators run fake Israeli 'news site',
spreading anti-Israel sentiments
Jerusalem Post/April 18/2024
https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-797725
"Dofek TV," posing as an Israeli news site, spreads anti-Israel sentiments from
operators likely based outside Israel, prompting concerns about foreign
influence targeting Israeli citizens. In January 2024, a website named "Dofek
TV" was launched, offering news in Hebrew. At least two of its operators have
been identified in Lebanon, along with posts featuring Arabic and Persian script
marks. "The fact that foreign influence networks reach tens of thousands of
Israelis has become unbearable," stated by Fake Reporter. On January 17, 2024, "Dofek
TV" (Dofek.tv) appeared as a new Israeli news site. It provides continuous
updates on events in Israel and globally, with its editors claiming to "address
Jewish issues in Israel and around the world." Days later, additional digital
assets like Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, TikTok, and YouTube pages were added.
Most reports on "Dofek TV" involve extreme messages, societal divisiveness, and
content that incites demoralization and despair. Part of the platform's digital
assets are promoted aggressively, making them hard to ignore. The "Fake
Reporter" investigation reveals how seemingly foreign entities operate under the
radar during wartime as part of hostile influence efforts that have intensified
since the outbreak of war within Israel, marking a significant escalation.
Around 400 posts have been made on Dofek TV's digital assets, attracting over
2,500 followers. The posts are in Hebrew and English.
The "Fake Reporter" investigation shows that the network's operators "are listed
as operating outside Israel." Most, if not all, of the content is copied from
existing Israeli news networks and websites. Despite considerable investment in
graphics and content, the language used by the operators is either corrupted
Hebrew or unconventional.Recently, videos featuring AI-based narration have been
uploaded.
What is their messaging?
In "Dofek TV" accounts, operators describe their activity as "without gloves or
masks." They write about themselves, stating they "serve the truth and present
another side of the story, the story of the Jews in Israel and the world.
Because we refuse to escape from narrow minds, we reject using our suffering and
pain as weapons. We refuse another Holocaust in our name. We believe in
rejecting violence, genocide, and corruption because we reject the cycle of
bloodshed imposed on us for decades. Because we aspire to a future where we are
all safe and equal.
We believe in security, prosperity, heritage, and our culture, and we want the
world to hear us and not reject us. Dofek 2024 - the voice of the Jewish
community." Attempts by the site operators to conceal and obfuscate have not
been successful. "Fake Reporter" (a research project aimed at combating
malicious activity on the internet) researchers revealed that Dofek TV's website
remains registered through GoDaddy and uses a simple WordPress platform. One of
the WordPress User page names is Fadel, which is not an Israeli name. The site
is linked to a temporary site with internal referrals designed to blur the
operators' tracks. Some articles on the site are inaccessible, but their titles
reflect an anti-Israeli stance. For instance, "How long can the occupation
sustain the human losses?" and "Ideology and flood to Al Aqsa." Many referrals
to articles on the site show graphic stories that support a pro-Palestinian
narrative.
The Facebook page of Dofek TV suggests that at least two operators are located
in Lebanon. "There is no certainty this is their operating base," says Fake
Reporter, but they clarify - "It is unlikely they are Israelis who wrote about
themselves living in Lebanon".
Among the errors and language distortions in Dofek TV's content, publications
concerning Israelis kidnapped by Hamas appear as "prisoners.” Additionally,
captions in the graphics with corrupted Hebrew and errors include: "Israelis"
and "Think Netanyahu needs to resign now." The content uploaded on "Dofek TV"
features significant errors regarding Israeli politics. For instance, a
publication about Prime Minister Netanyahu's directive to Communications
Minister Shlomo Kari to close the Qatari network Al Jazeera's offices - displays
a picture of former Communications Minister Yoaz Hendel.
The site also sees heightened engagement with extreme and divisive content. On
the X ( formerly Twitter) page, operators ponder: "Will [Itamar] Ben Gvir manage
to recruit ultra-Orthodox youth into the police and Border Police?"
Other entries include: "66,000 ultra-Orthodox received draft exemptions in
2023!", "Are you for or against drafting ultra-Orthodox youth into the army?"
"Netanyahu broke the unbreakable covenant" is noted alongside computer-generated
narration in a video: "How did Netanyahu turn Israel from a strategic ally of
the US into a burden on Washington?", and "Israel is losing global support due
to the stubbornness of Netanyahu and the extremists". The aggressive promotion
of divisive content on social networks in Israel has led to significant
engagement from Israeli netizens.
For example, a post about the designated appointment of police chief Avshalom
Peled, alongside the quote "a puppet of Ben Gvir," generated about 200 comments
from netizens both supporting and opposing the appointment. Other publications
about drafting the ultra-Orthodox have sparked numerous comments from Israeli
netizens.
"The fact that foreign influence networks operate here without disturbance and
reach tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands of Israelis, has become
unbearable," Achiya Schatz, CEO of Fake Reporter, said. He added, "The fact that
divisive content, written by hostile elements abroad, appears on our Twitter and
Facebook due to funded ads is doubly severe. The state can and must do much more
to combat this dangerous phenomenon." Schatz stated, "Over the past three years,
we at Fake Reporter have exposed more than 50 foreign influence operations. We
consistently pass all information to official bodies to address those attempting
to sow chaos and deepen hatred and polarization among us. But as long as the
State of Israel does not demand social networks take action, including
regulating relations between the state and networks, the citizens and national
security of Israel will remain an easy and convenient target for our enemies."
The Justice Ministry stated, "Without referring to a specific influence network,
generally, the responsibility for identifying, detecting, and analyzing foreign
intervention networks falls to the security agencies. As information on foreign
intervention networks is relayed, it is quickly and urgently examined, and
prompt action is taken against the online platforms. The activity in this area
generally yields very successful results. The decision to publicize this
information is left to the security agencies tasked with overseeing our security
interests, often requiring confidentiality."
A response from the Israel Police and Shin Bet has yet to be received, and it
will be incorporated into the article when provided.
Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News
published on April 18-19/2024
US vetoes widely supported UN resolution
backing full UN membership for Palestine
UNITED NATIONS (AP)/Thu, April 18, 2024
The United States vetoed a widely backed U.N. resolution on Thursday that would
have paved the way for full United Nations membership for the state of
Palestine. The vote in the 15-member Security Council
was 12 in favor, the United States opposed and two abstentions.
The resolution would have recommended that the 193-member General
Assembly, where there are no vetoes, approve Palestine becoming the 194th member
of the United Nations. Some 140 countries have already recognized the state of
Palestine, so its admission would have been approved.
This is the second Palestinian attempt to become a full member of the United
Nations, and it comes as the war in Gaza, now in its seventh month, has put the
more than 75-year-old Israeli-Palestinian conflict at center stage.
Before the vote, U.S. deputy State Department spokesman Vedant Patel said
the United States has “been very clear consistently that premature actions in
New York — even with the best intentions — will not achieve statehood for the
Palestinian people.” Palestinian membership “needs to
be the outcome of the negotiation between Israel and the Palestinians,” U.S.
deputy ambassador Robert Wood said. It “is something that would flow from the
result of those negotiations.” Anything that gets in
the way “makes it more difficult to have those negotiations” and doesn’t help
move toward a two-state solution where Israel and Palestine live side by side in
peace, which “we all want,” Wood told reporters.
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas first delivered the Palestinian Authority’s
application for U.N. membership to then-Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon in 2011.
That initial bid failed because the Palestinians didn’t get the required minimum
support of nine of the Security Council’s 15 members.
The Palestinians then went to the General Assembly and by more than a two-thirds
majority succeeded in having their status raised from a U.N. observer to a
non-member observer state in November 2012. That opened the door for the
Palestinian territories to join U.N. and other international organizations,
including the International Criminal Court. The
Palestinians revived their bid for U.N. membership in early April, backed by the
140 countries that have recognized Palestine as an independent state.
Ziad Abu Amr, special representative of the Palestinian president, said
adopting the resolution would grant the Palestinian people hope “for a decent
life within an independent state." He said such "hope
has dissipated over the past years because of the intransigence of the Israeli
government that has rejected this solution publicly and blatantly, especially
following the destructive war against the Gaza Strip.”
He stressed to the Security Council that it won’t be an alternative “for serious
negotiations that are time-bound to implement the two-state solution” and U.N.
resolutions, and to resolve pending issues between Palestinians and Israelis.
Amr asked the U.S. and other countries opposed to its U.N. membership how
that could damage prospects for peace or harm international peace and security
when they already recognize Israel and approved its U.N. membership.
“To grant the state of Palestine full membership will be an important
pillar to achieve peace in our region, because the Palestinian-Israeli conflict
and its different dimensions now goes beyond the borders of Palestine and Israel
and impacts other regions in the Middle East and around the world,” the
Palestinian envoy said. Israeli-Palestinian
negotiations have been stalled for years, and Israel’s right-wing government is
dominated by hard-liners who oppose Palestinian statehood.
Israeli U.N. Ambassador Gilad Erdan called the resolution “disconnected
to the reality on the ground” and warned that it “will cause only destruction
for years to come and harm any chance for future dialogue.”Six months after the
Oct. 7 attack on southern Israel by Hamas, which controlled Gaza, and the
killing of 1,200 people in “the most brutal massacre of Jews since the
Holocaust,” he accused the Security Council of seeking “to reward the
perpetrators of these atrocities with statehood.”Israel's military offensive in
response has killed over 32,000 Palestinians, according to Gaza's health
ministry, and destroyed much of the territory, which speaker after speaker
denounced Thursday. Erdan listed the requirements for U.N. membership —
accepting the obligations in the U.N. Charter and especially being a
“peace-loving” state.“What a joke,” he said. “Does anyone doubt that the
Palestinians failed to meet these criteria? Did anyone hear any Palestinian
leader even condemn the massacre of our children?”
US approves Rafah op. in exchange for no Israeli counter-strikes
on Iran - report
Jerusalem Post/April 18/2024
Israel allegedly obtained approval for an operation in Rafah as long as it
doesn't strike Iran, according to Qatari reports.
The US has approved a potential Israeli Rafah operation in exchange for the
Jewish state not conducting counterstrikes on Iran, according to a Thursday
report from the Qatari newspaper The New Arab. A senior official told The New
Arab that "Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu managed to obtain American approval
for a military operation in Rafah, in exchange for [Israel] refraining from
carrying out a wide military operation against Iran in response to its recent
attack."He claimed that "discourse of an Israeli response to Iran contradicts
the desires of the American administration, and is not realistic, given the
Israeli claims that the United States played the major role in repelling the
Iranian attack and preventing its success." The source noted that "the IDF
carried out airstrikes [overnight on Thursday] on several areas adjacent to the
border between the Gaza Strip and Egypt," adding that "the relevant officials in
Egypt were notified before the execution of some of these strikes, which came in
the Philadelphi axis at a space adjacent to the border with Egypt. The report
comes among public statements from some Israeli officials expressing desire to
retaliate against Iran, with a report published by the KAN broadcasting channel
claimed that Israel's ambassador to the US, Michael Herzog, stated on Thursday
that "Israel will react to Iran, and it won't take years - soon Iran's missiles
will be equipped with nuclear warheads."The Qatar report also noted that Egypt
is exemplifying "full readiness and preparedness of [its] forces stationed in
northern Sinai, along the 14-kilometer border strip with the Gaza Strip, as part
of a plan to deal with the scenario of a ground invasion in Rafah." Egyptian
troops stationed in northern Sinai amid Rafah operation Speaking about the
potential Israeli ground invasion, Egyptian law professor Dr. Ayman Salama
stated that any modification in the military situation requires Egypt's
approval, "and Israel will not be able to establish buffer zones on the
Egyptian-Israeli border or modify the security annex of the peace treaty between
the two countries under the pretext of urgent security needs in cases of direct
threats."Egypt holds a critical position amid the ongoing war in Gaza, as it
shares borders with the southern Gazan city of Rafah as well as a large border
with Israel. Egyptian military officials have previously claimed that they
are "ready for all scenarios" and that Israel needs to properly evacuate the
city of Rafah's civilian population before any border crossings are closed.
Sam Werberg: No connection between Rafah incursion and
Israeli response to Iranian attack
LBCI/April 18, 2024
US Department of State regional spokesman, Sam Werberg, denied that there is a
connection between the Israeli incursion in Rafah and the response to the
Iranian attack, expressing concern from the United States about any military
operation that does not consider the safety of civilians. Werberg emphasized in
an appearance on LBCI's 'Jadal' talk show that Israel is a sovereign state and
decides whether or not to respond to Iran, noting that the US is trying to
deescalate tensions in the region and has no intention of participating in any
attack on Iran. Werberg said, ''Hamas is responsible for the attacks of October
7th, but the United States does not hold Palestinians responsible for the
attack,'' adding that the United States is doing everything it can to achieve a
temporary six-week truce in Gaza, but Hamas refuses the truce, as well as
releasing the hostages. He considered that the Iranian regime destabilizes the
region, stressing that if there is no serious change in its behavior, the US
administration will not change its stance toward it. He said, ''It appears that
the international community recognizes that Iran is a state that sponsors
terrorism and a major source destabilizing the region.'' Werberg confirmed that
the establishment of a Palestinian state will be achieved through negotiations
between Israel and the Palestinians and that there is no possibility of
establishing any Palestinian state by a decision from the Security Council.
Netanyahu brushes off calls for restraint, saying Israel
will decide how to respond to Iran's attack
JERUSALEM (AP) /April 18, 2024
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Wednesday his country would be
the one to decide whether and how to respond to Iran’s major air assault earlier
this week, brushing off calls for restraint from close allies.
Israel has vowed to respond to Iran’s unprecedented attack without saying when
or how, leaving the region bracing for further escalation after months of unrest
linked to the ongoing war in Gaza. Israel’s allies have been urging Israel since
the attack to hold back on any response that could spiral. These calls were
repeated on Wednesday during visits by the British and German foreign ministers.
The diplomatic pressures came as Iran’s president warned that even the
“tiniest” invasion of its territory would bring a “massive and harsh” response.
Violence meanwhile surged on Wednesday between Israel and the Iran-backed
Lebanese militant Hezbollah group, which fired a volley of rockets and drones on
northern Israel. The attack wounded at least 14 Israeli soldiers, six seriously,
the army said. The military said it struck Hezbollah targets deep inside Lebanon
in response.
Speaking to a meeting of his Cabinet, Netanyahu said he met Wednesday with both
visiting foreign ministers and thanked them for their countries’ support. But he
said Israel would make the call on its own on how to respond despite “all sorts
of suggestions and advice” coming from Israel’s allies, some of whom — including
the United States, the United Kingdom and France — helped Israel repel Iran’s
drone and missile assault. “I want to be clear: we will make our decisions
ourselves. The state of Israel will do whatever is necessary to defend itself,”
Netanyahu said.
Despite the tough rhetoric, Israel appears unlikely to attack Iran directly
without at least the support of its top ally, the U.S. But it could resort to
more covert methods such as targeting senior Iranian commanders or Iran-backed
groups in other countries, or launching a cyber attack.
It’s unclear how Iran would then respond, given the heightened tensions — any
miscalculation by either side risks setting off a regional war.
President Joe Biden’s administration on Tuesday said it would place new
sanctions on Iran and has worked to coordinate a global rebuke of the attack
while urging all sides to de-escalate. U.S. officials said earlier this week
that Biden told Netanyahu that Washington would not participate in any offensive
action against Iran. Over the weekend, Iran launched
hundreds of missiles and drones at Israel in response to an apparent Israeli
strike on Iran’s Embassy compound in Syria on April 1 that killed 12 people,
including two Iranian generals. Israel says it and its partners successfully
intercepted nearly all the missiles and drones. A 7-year-old girl was wounded in
the attack, which did not cause any deaths or major damage.
Israel and Iran have waged a shadow war for decades, but the strike over the
weekend was the first direct Iranian military attack on Israel. With tensions
surging, Israel’s allies have reinforced a message of restraint. British Foreign
Secretary David Cameron and German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock each
appealed for calm while on separate visits to the region.
Cameron said “it’s clear the Israelis are making a decision to act”
against Iran, but he hoped they would do so “in a way that is smart as well as
tough and also does as little as possible to escalate this conflict.” He spoke
after meeting with Israel’s President Isaac Herzog, whose office is mainly
ceremonial. Baerbock said Germany stands “in full solidarity with Israel” but
called on it to exercise restraint. “Everyone must now
act prudently and responsibly. I’m not talking about giving in. I’m talking
about prudent restraint, which is nothing less than strength,” she told
reporters. “Because Israel has already shown strength with its defensive victory
at the weekend.” The ministers said they would push for further international
sanctions on Iran. Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi warned Israel against any
retaliation as he addressed an annual army parade, which had been relocated to a
barracks from its usual route and was not carried live on state TV — possibly
because of fears that it could be targeted. In remarks carried by Iran’s
official IRNA news agency, Raisi said the weekend attack was limited, and that
if Iran had wanted to carry out a bigger attack, “nothing would remain from the
Zionist regime.”Regional tensions have soared since the Oct. 7 attack on
southern Israel launched by Hamas and Islamic Jihad, Palestinian militant groups
supported by Iran. The attack killed some 1,200 Israelis, and the militants took
around 250 hostages. Israel responded with one of the deadliest and most
destructive military onslaughts in recent history, killing nearly 34,000
Palestinians, according to Gaza health officials, who do not distinguish between
combatants and civilians in their count but say most of the dead are women and
children. Israel has withdrawn most of its forces from
Gaza after major offensives that left its two biggest cities — Gaza City and
Khan Younis — in ruins. But Israeli officials say the war is not over and that
they plan to send ground forces into the southernmost Gaza city of Rafah, where
more than half the territory’s population of 2.3 million people have sought
refuge from fighting elsewhere. Hamas is still holding around 130 hostages, a
quarter of whom are believed to be dead, and international efforts to broker a
cease-fire and hostage release have made little progress. Hezbollah, another
close Iran ally, has traded fire with Israel along the border on a near-daily
basis since the war began, in a low-intensity conflict that risks igniting
all-out war. Iran-backed groups in Iraq and Syria have also launched attacks,
and the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen have targeted international shipping
in the Red Sea, portraying it as a blockade of Israel.
Iran Hawks Want to Strike Now. They're Wrong.
Bloomberg/April 18/ 2024
John Bolton has called for Israel to respond to Iran’s massive, failed weekend
missile barrage by destroying its nuclear fuel facilities. In one sense, that’s
no surprise; the former US national security adviser has rarely seen a problem
he didn’t think could be bombed into submission. Yet he’s far from alone in
believing Tehran’s decision to openly attack Israel has presented a rare window
for decisive action to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear power, and all
that’s needed is the will to act. Ultra-right members of Israel’s Cabinet agree,
as do some of the nation’s security services. If only it were just a matter of
will.
Bolton is reckless, but there are several things that he and other Iran hawks
get right, starting with the contention that by attacking Israel directly on
Saturday night, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei changed rules of engagement.
Before, the two countries had been fighting an undeclared war in the shadows. By
making the attack direct and open, Khamenei has created new policy options for
Israel.
The hawks are right, too, that Iran is preparing to produce a bomb despite its
denials. Since former President Donald Trump said he was pulling the US out of a
three-year-old nuclear deal with Tehran in 2018, Iranian stockpiles of enriched
uranium have gone from virtually nothing to more than 5,000 kilograms (11,000
pounds), including increasingly significant amounts that are enriched to 20% and
60%, well above the 3.7% needed for civilian use, and ready for rapid further
enrichment to weapons grade, at about 90%.
The Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security now
believes, based on an analysis of a February report by international inspectors,
that Iran has stockpiled enough enriched uranium to produce “seven nuclear
weapons in one month, nine in two months, eleven in three months, 12-13 in four
months, and 13 in five months.” In other words, it is already a threshold
nuclear power.
Equally correct is that Iran — as it proved again on Saturday — poses a
potentially existential threat to Israel, both directly and via proxies such as
Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis of Yemen. And few would deny that if Iran goes
nuclear, other governments in this most volatile of regions will likely look at
doing the same. This is why concern over Iran’s nuclear ambitions has always
been bipartisan in the US as well as in Israel. The dispute has been over best
how to thwart them.
And here is where the hawks go wrong. Invariably, they argue Iran has gotten as
close to having a bomb as it has due to the “weakness” of successive American
presidents, excluding Donald Trump, of course, whose “maximum pressure” policy
and decision to abandon the 2015 accords they celebrated. Bolton campaigned long
and hard for that exit.
Successive US — and Israeli — governments have failed to eliminate the program
because that’s hard to achieve, and because they rightly feared that any failed
once-and-for-all attempt would risk backfiring, badly. In fact, the result of
Trump’s “maximum pressure” has been to produce maximum Iranian enrichment
capacity and maximum stockpiles of enriched uranium.
Bolton called for a disproportionate response in his interview with NewsNation’s
“The Hill Sunday,” and taking out Iran’s nuclear facilities would first involve
a major campaign to destroy its air defenses. The US and Israel have the most
capable air forces on the planet, but as the war in Ukraine has shown, modern
air defense systems — some of which Iran has bought from Russia — are also very
capable.
That could well be a risk worth taking if the operation could reasonably expect
to reach and destroy all nuclear facilities. In some cases that would be simple
enough, once air defenses were dealt with. Iran has several known above-ground
enrichment facilities that could be struck. But it has also been hardening its
program against attack for years. There are centrifuge cascades spinning to 60%
enrichment at Fordow, where inspectors from the UN’s Vienna-based International
Atomic Energy Agency discovered traces of 84% enriched uranium — just shy of
weapons grade — in January 2023.
An Associated Press analysis of satellite images last May found that Iran was
also digging a new home for its best-known enrichment plant, at Natanz, 180
kilometers south of Qom, under another mountain. And this time it’s even deeper
than Fordow. There is no guarantee that even the bunker-busting bombs that the
US has been developing for this purpose would be able to drill through these
mountains to the facilities beneath.
It's also a myth that the US and Israel have never attacked Iran’s nuclear
program. They’ve been doing so for years, by methods that pose much lower
escalation risks, including smuggling in explosive charges and infecting the
computers that control the centrifuges. The Stuxnet virus destroyed 1,000 of
9,000 centrifuges at the (above ground) Natanz facility in 2010, by making them
spin too fast. Explosions at Natanz in 2020 and 2021 destroyed thousands more
centrifuges. Between all that, a slew of Iranian nuclear physicists and
administrators have been assassinated. These setbacks are arguably as much as an
air strike would be likely to achieve. Yet three to four years later, Iran has
more advanced centrifuges and more highly enriched uranium than ever before.
What all these prior attacks demonstrate is that even if the US and Israel are
able to identify all overt and covert enrichment facilities, neutralize Iranian
air defenses and penetrate the subterranean caverns, the damage caused would
likely delay the program but not eradicate it, while ensuring a regional war. So
long as it retains the know-how, Iran will be able to rebuild its operation. At
the same time, the regime would surely end all remaining cooperation with
international inspectors, while going for broke to produce a credible nuclear
deterrent.
As far back as 2012, a study endorsed by more than two dozen ex-US generals,
diplomats and others, including former National Security Adviser Zbigniew
Brzezinski, weighed the pros and cons of an attack, and came down on the side of
caution, assessing that Tehran’s program even then could be set back by at most
two years, after which a nuclear armed Iran would become more, rather than less
likely. In the meantime, there would be significant blowback.
Weakness versus toughness are playground terms ill-suited to decisions of war
and peace. They say nothing about what will work or whether the costs and
uncertainties of war are outweighed by the benefits. The reality, as the US
found in Afghanistan and Iraq, and now Israel is finding in Gaza, is that tough
action without a solid political framework and achievable goals tends to
backfire.
US State Department: Humanitarian situation in Gaza
remains dire, Israel must do more
Reuters/April 18/2024
Vedant Patel, Deputy Spokesperson for the US State Department, said on Thursday
that the humanitarian situation in Gaza remains dire and that Israel must do
more to allow more aid into the territory and coordinate with relief agencies on
halting the conflict. In a press briefing, Patel added, "We are seeing some
significant progress in terms of humanitarian aid entering Gaza, but the
conditions inside Gaza remain dire and more action is needed. The crisis we are
witnessing requires a rapid increase in these efforts."
Iran warns Israel at the UN against any new military action
Reuters/April 18/2024
At the United Nations Security Council on Thursday, Iran stated that "Israel
must be compelled to cease any further military action against its interests."
Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said, "If the Israeli
regime uses force and violates our sovereignty, the Islamic Republic of Iran
will not hesitate for a moment to assert its inherent rights with a decisive and
appropriate response to make the regime regret its actions."
Hamas Obstructs Hostage Negotiations
FDD/April 18/2024
Latest Developments
Hamas rejected all proposals and expanded demands during recent hostage
negotiations, Israeli and American officials said on April 14, 15, and 16. Hamas
rejected the latest Gaza ceasefire proposal on April 13 as Iran launched its
drone and missile attack against the Jewish state. A joint statement from the
Mossad and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office on April 14 noted
that Hamas’s “rejection of the proposal” shows that its leadership “does not
want a humanitarian deal and the return of hostages, is continuing to exploit
tension with Iran, and is striving to unite the sectors and achieve a general
escalation in the region.”
State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said on April 15 that “Israel moved a
significant way” in the latest round of talks and Hamas “is the barrier and the
obstacle to a ceasefire in Gaza.” Miller told reporters on April 16 that Hamas
is “the impediment” to reaching a deal.
Among other conditions, Hamas is reportedly demanding that Israel release 30
Palestinian security prisoners for every civilian hostage — 10 times the number
originally agreed in a November 2023 hostage deal — and is now asserting that it
can only release 20 “humanitarian” hostages, defined as women, children, the
elderly, and the infirm, during the first phase of a future hostage deal.
Previous proposals envisioned Hamas releasing 40 hostages during the initial
ceasefire, but the terrorist group claimed on April 10 that it does not have 40
living hostages who meet the criteria for release.
Expert Analysis
“Hamas faces no pressure at this moment to make any concessions. That will only
change when it’s forced to stare down its end.” — Richard Goldberg, FDD Senior
Advisor
“It should come as no surprise that Hamas has hardened its stance in the hostage
negotiations. Hamas recognizes that international pressure, chiefly from
Israel’s principal ally, the United States, is taking a toll on the Jewish
state. The pressure on Israel has given Hamas and its partners in the Gaza Strip
a new breath of life and an opportunity to try to end the war on their terms.” —
Joe Truzman, Senior Research Analyst at FDD’s Long War Journal
Hamas Turns Down Five Ceasefire Offers
Hamas previously rejected ceasefire proposals in December and January. In
February, the White House expressed hope that Hamas had scaled back its demands,
but the terrorist group continued to dig in its heels. In late March, Israel
agreed to pause its counteroffensive in Gaza for six weeks and release
approximately 700 Palestinian prisoners in exchange for 40 Israeli hostages.
Hamas rejected that offer on March 26. Hamas rejected another ceasefire proposal
on April 4, refusing to compromise on its maximalist position. “We are committed
to our demands,” Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh said. Those demands
include a permanent ceasefire, Israel’s complete withdrawal from the Gaza Strip,
the return of Palestinians displaced from northern Gaza, and an “honorable
prisoner exchange deal,” Haniyeh said. Jerusalem has repeatedly made clear that
any deal that leaves Hamas intact is unacceptable.
129 Hostages Remain in Gaza
Hamas released 81 Israeli hostages during a week-long pause in November in
exchange for 240 Palestinian prisoners. Additionally, Hamas released 23 Thai
nationals, one Filipino, and three Israeli-Russian dual citizens under separate
arrangements with Bangkok, Manila, and Moscow. The pause collapsed on December
1, when Hamas refused to provide a list of the remaining women and children in
captivity and resumed launching rockets at Israel. Israeli special forces
rescued two hostages on February 12 and, on April 6, recovered the body of an
Israeli hostage murdered by his captors in Gaza. Approximately 129 hostages
remain in captivity, 33 of whom Israel believes are no longer alive.
Israel bombs Gaza as Middle East tense after Iranian
attack
Agence France Presse/Aril 18/2024
Israel launched more deadly strikes on besieged Gaza on Thursday as world powers
watched nervously whether the country would retaliate against a weekend attack
by its arch enemy Iran. The Israeli army said it had bombed dozens of targets in
the Palestinian coastal territory of 2.4 million people, more than six months
into the bloodiest ever Gaza war. Weeks of talks towards an Israel-Hamas truce
and hostage release deal have stalled, according to Qatar's prime minister who
said the Gulf emirate was now "reassessing our role as mediator". Israeli Prime
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has vowed to destroy Hamas over its October 7
attack on Israel, also stressed on Wednesday that Israel "reserves the right to
protect itself" against Iran. The Islamic republic last weekend carried out its
first ever attack to directly target its regional foe but Israel, backed by its
allies, intercepted most of the 300 missiles and drones and suffered no deaths.
Iran's attack was retaliation for an April 1 air strike, which it blamed on
Israel, on the consular annex of its embassy in Damascus. The international
community has urged de-escalation since Iran's attack on Israel which came after
months of high tensions and violence involving Israel and Iran-backed groups in
Lebanon, Iraq, Syria and Yemen. "We are on the edge of a war in the Middle East
which will be sending shock-waves to the rest of the world," EU foreign policy
chief Josep Borrell said ahead of a G7 meeting in Capri, Italy.
Iran has warned of "a fierce and severe response" if Israel launches any further
attacks after seven of its Revolutionary Guards died in the consular strike.
However, Tehran had also sought to calm tensions through indirect diplomatic
channels with its other major adversary, the United States, which is Israel's
top ally and military supplier. Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, in
New York for a UN meeting, said Iran had "tried to tell the United States
clearly" that it is "not looking for the expansion of tension in the region".
- 'Diplomatic sensitivities' -
Washington has made clear it won't join any Israeli attack on Iran, but has
pledged to instead impose new punitive sanctions against Iran. The European
Union on Wednesday said it would impose new sanctions on Iran's drone and
missile producers. Israeli public broadcaster Kan said Netanyahu, after
discussions with US President Joe Biden, decided not to proceed with
pre-arranged plans for retaliatory strikes on Iran."Diplomatic sensitivities
came into play," a senior Israeli official told Kan, speaking on condition of
anonymity. The official added that there would be a response, but that it would
be different to the one initially planned. US broadcaster ABC News, citing three
unnamed Israeli sources, reported that Israel had "prepared for and then aborted
retaliatory strikes against Iran on at least two nights this past week." Among
the range of possible responses considered by Israel were an attack on Iranian
proxies in the region or a cyberattack, the sources told ABC. German airline
Lufthansa extended its suspension of flights to and from Tehran and Beirut to
the end of April and said its planes would continue avoiding Iranian airspace.
Israel's Foreign Minister Israel Katz welcomed a European Union announcement of
sanctions on Iran as "an important step" and wrote on X that "Iran must be
stopped now before it is too late".
Overnight bombing -
Iran's attack on Israel "is succeeding in taking the focus, particularly the
media spotlight, off of the Gaza famine and the Gaza war and the loss of life
that is taking place there," Roxane Farmanfarmaian, a Middle East/North Africa
specialist at the University of Cambridge's POLIS department, told AFP. "And
that was very much I think what Israel planned to do," she said. An AFP
correspondent in Gaza said Israeli artillery shelling and aircraft strikes again
hit Gaza City overnight. The Israeli military said it struck dozens of militant
targets over the past day. The war started after Hamas launched their
unprecedented attack on October 7 that allegedly resulted in the deaths of 1,170
people in southern Israel according to an AFP tally based on Israeli official
figures. The militants also took about 250 hostages. Israel estimates 129 remain
in Gaza, including 34 who are presumed dead. Israel's retaliatory offensive has
killed at least 33,970 people in Gaza, mostly women and children, according to
the latest toll on Thursday from the health ministry in the Hamas-run territory.
Gaza's civil defense said Thursday it had recovered 11 more bodies in the
southern city of Khan Yunis during the night.Israel had also bombed the
far-southern city of Rafah. Gaza rescue crews recovered the corpses of eight
family members, including five children and two women, from a house in Rafah's
Al-Salam neighborhood, the civil defense service said. One woman in Rafah,
Jamalat Ramidan, told AFP she and crying children fled the carnage of a strike,
stumbling over "body parts and corpses scattered all over the place".
Stalled truce talks -
Talks toward a ceasefire have stalled, said Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh
Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani, despite months of effort also involving
United States and Egyptian officials. He said his country was undertaking "a
complete re-evaluation of its role because there has been damage to Qatar",
which does not have diplomatic relations with Israel.Israel has faced growing
global opposition to the Gaza war, which the United Nations and aid agencies say
has left the north of the territory on the brink of famine. Netanyahu on
Wednesday rejected this, saying Israeli efforts were "above and beyond" what is
needed "on the humanitarian issue," his office said. The UN Security Council was
preparing to vote soon on an Algeria-drafted resolution for full United Nations
membership for a Palestinian state, diplomatic sources said. However, the
veto-wielding United States has repeatedly expressed opposition to such a move.
Israel Promises Response to Iran Attack as World Leaders
Urge Restraint
FDD/Aril 18/2024
Latest Developments
Israel’s war cabinet decided to strike back at Iran “clearly and forcefully”
during a closed-door meeting on April 15. The Times of Israel, citing Israel’s
Channel 12, reported that the cabinet chose to respond to send a message that
Israel “would not allow an attack of that magnitude against it to pass without a
reaction.”
“This launch of so many missiles, cruise missiles, and drones into Israeli
territory will be met with a response,” said Israel Defense Forces Chief of
Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi on April 15. On April 13 and 14, Iran’s regime and
their proxies in Yemen, Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq launched approximately 170
drones, 30 cruise missiles, and 120 ballistic missiles toward Israel. Israeli
air defenses, fighter jets, and partners — including the United States, United
Kingdom, France, and Jordan — intercepted nearly all of the munitions, with only
a few ballistic missiles causing minor damage in Israel.
Expert Analysis
“It is interesting that some only seem to get concerned about escalation after
the United States and Israel are attacked and are considering how to respond. A
country, like an individual, in the sole business of receiving punches and not
counterpunching should expect more punches. Israel had a right and
responsibility to respond to October 7, and it has a right and responsibility to
respond to Iran’s unprecedented direct attack against Israel this weekend.” —
Bradley Bowman, Senior Director of FDD’s Center on Military and Political Power
“Iran’s historic and brazen escalation against Israel featured a combination of
its most lethal long-range strike platforms, including suicide drones,
land-attack cruise missiles, and medium-range ballistic missiles. When employed
together, these weapons are used not only to signal but also to kill and
destroy. To brush that off would only invite more taboo-shattering direct
attacks.” — Behnam Ben Taleblu, FDD Senior Fellow
Leaders Call for Israeli Restraint
The war cabinet’s meeting comes as the United States and several other countries
called for Israel to show restraint, worried that an Israeli response could lead
to an escalation. During a phone call, President Joe Biden told Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu that the United States would not participate in an Israeli
counterattack.
Israel’s Possible Targets
Israel’s targets inside Iran could include missile and drone production and
storage facilities, Iranian ports, and oil and gas infrastructure, including
refineries and pipelines that finance the regime. It may choose to attack
leadership and military assets. Finally, Israel may consider striking elements
of Iran’s nuclear weapons program, potentially including the regime’s nuclear
scientists.
Israel Did Not Respond During First Gulf War
During the first month of the First Gulf War, Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein
launched 38 Scud missiles at Israel, killing two people directly and causing the
deaths of 11 more from heart attacks and asphyxiation. According to reports, the
United States successfully pressured Israel not to respond since an Israeli
attack could undermine the coalition the United States was building, which
included Arab states. Instead, the United States and its Gulf War coalition
partners destroyed Iraq’s Scud missile launchers. The United States also sent
U.S. troops and at least one Patriot missile defense system to Israel.
In 1981, Israel attacked the Osirak nuclear reactor in Iraq. And in 2007, Israel
destroyed Syria’s al-Kibar nuclear reactor. In both instances, Israel took these
steps to secure its interests despite concerns in Washington.
UNRWA head says Israel trying to end agency's operations
in Gaza
Associated Press/Aril 18/2024
The head of the U.N. agency helping Palestinian refugees is accusing Israel of
trying to end its operations in Gaza and the West Bank. Philippe Lazzarini is
urging the U.N. Security Council to safeguard his agency's critical role as the
relief agency for Palestinians.Lazzarini told the council Wednesday that Israel
has banned the agency from delivering aid to Gaza. International experts have
warned that famine is imminent in the northern part of the territory. Since the
war began, Lazzarini said, 178 personnel from the agency known as UNRWA have
been killed. More than 160 of the agency's premises, which were mostly used to
shelter Palestinians, have been damaged or destroyed, killing more than 400
people. “We demand an independent investigation and accountability for the
blatant disregard for the protected status of humanitarian workers, operations,
and facilities under international law,” UNRWA’s commissioner general said.
Israel has alleged that 12 of UNRWA's thousands of workers participated in the
Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israel that sparked the war. Lazzarini pledged to
implement recommendations and strengthen safeguards to ensure UNRWA’s
neutrality.
Qatar says it's rethinking its mediator role
Associated Press/Aril 18/2024
Qatar’s prime minister has said that the country is reevaluating its role as a
mediator between Israel and Hamas. Qatar has been a key intermediary throughout
the war in Gaza. It, along with the U.S. and Egypt, was instrumental in helping
negotiate a brief halt to the fighting in November that led to the release of
dozens of hostages. Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdurrahman Al
Thani said there had been an “abuse” of Qatar’s mediation for “narrow political
interests.” He did not name one side in his remarks. But Israeli Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu has criticized Qatar and recently threatened to shutter
Qatar-owned broadcaster Al Jazeera. Top Hamas leaders live in exile in Qatar,
which is seen as one of the only parties with influence over the militant group.
Al Thani said there were “limits” to the role of mediator and “to the ability to
which we can contribute to these negotiations in a constructive
manner.”Mediators have been trying to push Hamas and Israel toward a cease-fire
deal, but the sides remain far apart on key terms.
UK Fails to Designate IRGC as Terror Group Despite Iranian
Attack on Israel
FDD/Aril 18/2024
The British government is resisting a campaign by key UK politicians to
designate Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist
organization. UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s inaction on the matter faces
opposition from UK Shadow Defense Secretary John Healy and former Conservative
Party leader Sir Iain Duncan Smith, who are leading the renewed campaign. The
IRGC “was at the forefront of the Iranian attack,” Healy said in support of the
designation, which would categorize the IRGC as a terrorist organization akin to
the Islamic State, al-Qaeda, Hezbollah, and Hamas, all of which the British
government has previously designated.
Advocates of the status quo argue that an IRGC designation would sever
communication between the United Kingdom and Iran and risk further escalation.
Sunak affirmed that Britain is working with allies “to deter and condemn” Iran.
The UK may apply more sanctions against Iran, according to Foreign Secretary
David Cameron.
Expert Analysis
“The IRGC has deeply penetrated British soil, with law enforcement desperately
needing the proscription tool to take action. Cameron can’t keep hiding behind
the fear of escalation with Iran after Tehran just escalated to such a massive
extent. The Sunak government needs to realize it’s the projection of fear and
weakness that emboldens Iranian aggression, not the defense of Britain from IRGC
terrorism.” — Richard Goldberg, FDD Senior Advisor
“There may have been a time for London, Brussels, Ottawa, Canberra, and
Wellington to use their public debate over IRGC proscription as leverage against
Tehran. That time has long passed. The longer these jurisdictions delay, the
more the regime senses weakness and continues to expand the scope of threats the
Guard Corps poses.” — Behnam Ben Taleblu, FDD Senior Fellow
Pressure to Ban the IRGC Resurfaces
Cameron said the government has sanctioned the IRGC “in its entirety,” yet
London has not declared it a terrorist organization. In April 2023, Duncan Smith
and 125 British members of parliament unsuccessfully urged the UK government in
a letter to designate the IRGC as a terrorist organization. Duncan Smith said
that the United States had “asked” the United Kingdom to impose such a
designation. America designated the IRGC as a foreign terrorist organization in
2019.
Britain Helps Shoot Down Iranian Projectiles But Urges Restraint
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu specifically thanked Britain,
alongside the United States, France, and other allies, for intercepting Iranian
drones and missiles launched at Israel. Sunak confirmed that Britain’s Royal Air
Force shot down “a number of Iranian attack drones.” Following Iran’s strike,
Cameron said the government supported Israel’s “right to respond” but would “not
support a retaliatory strike.” Prime Minister Sunak reiterated that “all sides
must show restraint.”
Suspected Iranian spy ship sails for home, leaving troubled waters as Tehran
braces for Israeli retaliation
Jake Epstein/Business Insider//April 18, 2024
Houthi rebels hijack ships in Red Sea, demanding cease-fire in GazaScroll back
up to restore default view. An Iranian ship suspected of providing intelligence
to the Houthis is sailing home. The MV Behshad spent several months near Yemen
as the Houthis launched attacks. Shipping data shows its back near Iran as
Tehran braces for a potential Israeli retaliation. An Iranian cargo ship that is
suspected of having provided targeting information and intelligence to the
Houthis for their Red Sea attacks appears to have sailed home this week.
The MV Behshad's return to Iran comes as the country braces for possible
Israeli retaliation over Tehran's unprecedented missile and drone attack on
Israel last weekend. The vessel has been at sea for nearly three years and spent
several months earlier this year lingering near Yemen. But on Wednesday, it was
seen sailing in the Gulf of Oman off Iran's coast, and it crossed the strategic
Straight of Hormuz early on Thursday, according to ship tracking data reviewed
by Business Insider. The Behshad's destination is
listed as the Iranian port city of Bandar Abbas on MarineTraffic.com, and the
latest tracking data from Thursday afternoon local time shows that the vessel is
in the general vicinity of the city.
Though it left its position near Yemen earlier this month, the Behshad did not
broadcast its location until a few days ago, when it appeared on ship tracking
sites off the coast of Iran, according to Bloomberg, which first reported on the
vessel's movement. While it was lingering around waters near the coast of Yemen,
the Behshad is suspected of having provided intelligence to the Houthis that
allowed them to locate and target commercial vessels in key international
shipping lanes, NBC News reported. The Iranian vessel was also reportedly the
target of a US cyberattack in early February. The Houthis, which are supported
and armed by Iran, have been firing missiles and drones at vessels in the Red
Sea and Gulf of Aden for months. US Navy warships operating in the region have
intercepted many of these threats, although some of the munitions have managed
to hit commercial vessels in transit.
Iranian officials have denied any involvement in the Houthis' campaign.
The Behshad's relocation to waters closer to home provides a certain
degree of safety to the suspected intelligence asset, which might otherwise be a
target of Israeli retaliation. An attack on a ship of this kind would not be a
first for Israel. Back in 2021, its forces used a mine to strike an Iranian
military vessel in the Red Sea. The redeployment comes
just days after Israeli officials vowed to retaliate for Iran's attack last
weekend. Tehran and its proxies launched more than 300 missiles and drones at
Israel, nearly all of which were shot down by the country and partner forces in
the region, including the US military. The massive barrage came days after an
Israeli airstrike in Syria that killed several high-ranking Iranian military
officials. Israel's Western partners have called for
the country to show restraint in its response to Iran, warning that any
retaliation risks an all-out military confrontation with Tehran and could plunge
the Middle East even further into violence. "We have
to ask Israel for a restrained answer to the Iranians' attack. We cannot
escalate," the European Union's foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, said on
Thursday. "We cannot go step by step, answering every time higher to a regional
war." "I do not want to exaggerate," he said, "but we
are on the edge of a regional war in the Middle East, which will be sending
shockwaves to the rest of the world, and in particular to Europe."Iranian
officials have said that Tehran will respond to any retaliation.
Sexual assault and brutal beatings: Iran renews violent
hijab crackdown
TZVI JOFFRE/Jerusalem Post/APRIL 17, 2024
Videos from Iran showed women struggling as "Morality Police" officers tried to
shove them into vans in widespread arrests.
Iran has begun intensifying its crackdown on hijab restrictions in several
cities in the past week, with violent arrests reported across the country by
opposition groups and human rights agencies. The intensified assault on women
across Iran comes after the regime announced the "Nour Project." The project,
aimed at "dealing with anomalies," has involved a heavy presence of the
"Morality Police" in several cities since this past weekend. According to Iran's
Mehr News Agency, police have been instructed to focus on "positive behaviors"
and avoid using "negative behaviors" as much as possible. Reports from Iran
suggest the crackdown has been violent, including sexual harassment, beatings,
the use of tasers, widespread arrests, and breaking car windows, among other
measures. The intensification of hijab enforcement came just a week after
Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said that maintaining hijab wearing was of
the "utmost importance" and accused foreigners of "hiring" women to not wear
hijab. One video published on social media showed a woman struggling against the
"Morality Police" as she was shoved into a van Dina Ghalibaf, a journalist and
student at Tehran's Beheshti University, was arrested from her home on Tuesday
after posting on X that she had been detained and sexually assaulted by
"Morality Police" at the Sadeghiyeh metro station in Tehran earlier in the week.
Ghalibaf said the Morality Police officers violently detained her and tased her
while she was trying to access the metro in a post on Monday. She added that one
of the officers made insulting comments about Mahsa Amini and women in general.
On Tuesday, she was taken from her home to an unknown location. Ghalibaf's X
account has since been suspended. The Iranian Teachers Union reported on her
arrest as well. Iran International reported on Wednesday that the "Morality
Police" have been using plainclothes officers to surround them while they arrest
women in order to prevent crowds from interfering. The wife and daughter of
Ahmadreza Abedzadeh, an Iranian soccer goalkeeper, were also arrested in Tehran
on charges of violating hijab regulations, according to the Iranian Fars News
Agency. Iranian media claimed the two were "causing tensions and clashing with
officers."Abedzadeh had expressed some support for protesters during the wave of
anti-government protests that swept Iran in late 2022. Businesses where women
are seen violating hijab laws will also be shuttered if women are seen without
hijab more than once there. Iranian journalist and activist Masih Alinejad
referenced the renewed crackdown in a post on X, calling on people to "Stand
against this silent war against Iranian women." "Women are being subjected to
beatings and sexual harassment simply for not wearing hijabs," Alinejad wrote.
"This started on Saturday, right after Ali Khamenei ordered the police to impose
hijab on women at any cost. When they say ‘at any cost,’ it means police can
easily kill women for not wearing hijab, the way they did (sic.) killed #MahsaAmini."
Enforcement of hijab laws intensified over past year
The Islamic regime in Iran has been gradually intensifying enforcement of hijab
laws since they were somewhat relaxed in light of nationwide protests that swept
Iran after Mahsa Amini, a Kurdish-Iranian woman, was killed by "Morality Police"
in Tehran. Amini’s death sparked intense nationwide demonstrations last
September, commonly referred to as the “Woman, Life, Liberty” (“Jin, Jiyan,
Azadî” in Kurdish) protests, which continued in full strength for months on end.
For the past year, the Iranian parliament has been working on a new law that
would intensify the penalties for not wearing the hijab. However, the law has
been held up in the Guardian Council, a group of experts in Islamic law and
jurists tasked with approving all legislation. Last year, the regime instituted
new measures to enforce hijab laws, including surveillance cameras. In recent
months, plainclothes agents known as "hijabban" have been seen in metro stations
in Tehran, enforcing hijab laws. In January, a Kurdish-Iranian woman named Roya
Heshmati was whipped 74 times after a photo of her was published a few months
beforehand in which she was seen not wearing a hijab in Tehran. Despite the
continued crackdown, Iranian women have increasingly been seen in public without
the hijab.
Iran warns Israel against attacking nuclear sites
Agence France Presse/Thu, April 18, 2024
A senior Revolutionary Guards general threatened on Thursday to target Israel's
"nuclear facilities" if it strikes Iranian atomic sites, state media reported,
anticipating retaliation for Tehran's unprecedented weekend attack. Israel's
military chief has vowed a response to the Iranian aerial attack, which was
mostly intercepted, while world leaders have urged de-escalation. Tehran's first
direct attack on Israel, launched late Saturday, was in retaliation for an April
1 air strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus that killed seven members of
the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, including two generals. Israeli officials
have not said when or where the country would retaliate, but Ahmad Haghtalab,
the Guards' head of nuclear protection and security, said Iran would
"definitely" reciprocate any attack on nuclear sites. "If the Zionist regime
(Israel) wants to take action against our nuclear centers and facilities, it
will definitely and surely face our reaction," the official news agency IRNA
quoted Haghtalab as saying. "For the counterattack, the nuclear facilities of
the (Israeli) regime will be targeted and operated upon with advanced
weaponry."His warning came after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel
reserves "the right to protect itself" following the Iranian attack with
hundreds of drones and missiles. Haghtalab said "the threat" of an Israeli
attack on Iran's nuclear facilities could lead Tehran "to revise and deviate
from the declared nuclear policies and considerations", without elaborating. The
Islamic republic, which has always insisted its nuclear program is peaceful and
denies seeking an atomic bomb, has accused arch foe Israel of sabotage attacks
on its facilities and assassinations of nuclear scientists in recent
years.According to Haghtalab, Iran has "identified" Israeli nuclear centers and
holds "necessary information of all targets."Israel is widely known to have
nuclear weapons but has never admitted so. "Hands are on the trigger to fire
powerful missiles for the total destruction of determined targets," the Iranian
general said. On Monday, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency,
Rafael Grossi, said Iran had closed its nuclear facilities "for security
reasons" on the day of its attack on Israel. Amirali Hajizadeh, commander of the
Revolutionary Guards' aerospace unit that led the attack on Israel, said on
Thursday that Iran had only used "old weapons and minimal power" for it. "At
this stage, we have not used" ballistic missiles, he said, arguing Iran has
"overcome the maximum capacity" of Israel and its allies "with minimal power."
Aida Shakarami: Iran morality police arrests dead
protester's sister, mother says
David Gritten - BBC News/Thu, April 18, 2024
The elder sister of Nika Shakarami, a 16-year-old girl who was killed during the
2022 anti-government protests in Iran, has been arrested for allegedly not
covering her hair, her family says. Aida Shakarami, 22, was accused of "not
adhering to compulsory hijab" by morality police in Tehran on Wednesday, her
mother Nasrin wrote on Instagram. "She remains in custody," she added. The
police have not commented, but it comes after they launched a crackdown on
breaches of the Islamic dress code. Tehran's police chief said on Saturday the
new initiative would "confront social taboo-breaking over hijab and chastity and
those who seek to expressly contravene hijab rules" - a reference to the many
women and girls who have defiantly stopped covering their hair in public. In
another development on Thursday, video posted on social media appeared to show a
young Iranian woman having a seizure after she was confronted by morality police
in Tehran. An eyewitness told BBC Persian that officers violently confiscated
the woman's mobile phone and purse because she was not wearing a headscarf.
Iranian women 'ready to pay the price' for defying hijab rules.
Leaked Iran papers reveal 'mobile hijab courts' plan Iran stops families
marking protesters' deaths Nika Shakarami became a symbol of the "Woman, Life,
Freedom" protest movement that shook the Islamic Republic two years ago. The
protests erupted in response to the death in custody on 16 September 2022 of
Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old woman who had been detained by morality police in the
capital for allegedly wearing her hijab "improperly". Authorities denied that
Mahsa Amini was mistreated, but the UN's Independent International Fact-Finding
Mission on Iran said in a report last month that she "was subjected to physical
violence that led to her death". On 20 September 2022,
Nika was filmed at a protest in Tehran setting fire to her headscarf, while
other protesters chanted "death to the dictator" - a reference to the Supreme
Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. She disappeared that evening after telling a
friend that she was being chased by police. Her family eventually found her body
at a mortuary 10 days later. They alleged that she died from blows to the head
and rejected claims from officials that she had killed herself. Authorities
portrayed the protests as foreign-backed "riots" and tried to suppress them with
force. They have not released an official death toll, but the UN's fact-finding
mission said credible figures suggested that as many as 551 protesters were
killed by security forces, most of them by gunfire. The government says 75
security personnel were killed. More than 20,000 other protesters were
reportedly detained, including many journalists and celebrities. Nine young men
have been executed in connection with the protests following what UN
investigators found were summary proceedings that relied on confessions
extracted under torture and ill-treatment. Dozens more have reportedly been
sentenced to death or charged with capital offences. The protests have now
largely subsided, but there is still widespread discontent at the clerical
establishment and, in particular, the hijab laws. In
September, Iran's parliament passed a controversial "Hijab and Chastity" bill
that would impose severe punishments on women and girls for violations of the
dress code, including up to 10 years in prison and flogging. It must still be
approved by the Guardian Council before it becomes law. The UN's fact-finding
mission said the "violent repression of peaceful protests and pervasive
institutional discrimination against women and girls" had led to serious human
rights violations that amounted to crimes against humanity.
Oman, a crucial back channel between Iran and US
Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, Rice University/Associated Press/April 18/2024
Prior to launching a barrage of drones and missiles at Israel on April 13, 2024,
Iran reportedly got word to Washington that its response to an earlier strike on
its embassy compound in Syria would seek to avoid major escalation. The message
was conveyed via the Gulf Arab state of Oman.
The current crisis in the Middle East is one that officials in Oman have spent
years trying to avoid. Located across the Strait of Hormuz from Iran, and with
close defense and security ties to the U.S. and the U.K., Oman is aware that
tit-for-tat attacks raise the risk of a broader war that would engulf countries
and armed nonstate groups across the region.
Full-blown war could be triggered by further escalatory actions by Tehran or
Jerusalem. But it could also occur through miscalculation or misunderstanding,
especially given the lack of official bilateral channels for dialogue and
de-escalation.
And this is where Oman steps in. For years, the Gulf state has quietly built a
track record of easing regional tensions through diplomacy. It has continued to
play this role since the Oct. 7 attack by Hamas. In the months since that
assault and Israel's response in Gaza inflamed the region, Oman has held
high-level dialogues with Iran, hosted British Foreign Secretary David Cameron
for talks on security in the Red Sea, and called for a cease-fire in Gaza.It
could now play a crucial role in keeping a channel of communication open between
the U.S. and Iran as parties seek to tamp down tensions.
Standing apart from regional rivalries
Along with neighboring Qatar and Kuwait – as well as Switzerland, which
represents U.S. interests in Iran in the absence of an American embassy – Oman
has played a critical role in back-channel diplomacy. But Oman's approach is
distinct from that of other nations. Rather than participating in direct talks,
it creates space for dialogue, serving as a facilitator rather than a mediator.
Multiple reasons account for the Omani decision to act as a facilitator. Unlike
several of the other Gulf states, such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab
Emirates, Oman lacks a history of tense relations with Iran. Rather, Omanis
recall that Iran under the shah provided support to Oman during the 1970s when
the Gulf state's then young new sultan, Qaboos bin Said, was fighting a
decadelong uprising in the southern province of Dhofar. Even after the shah was
ousted in the 1979 Iranian revolution and replaced by a clerical regime headed
by Ayatollah Khomeini, Oman stood apart from others in the region and declined
to get involved in regional rivalries and competition for geopolitical influence
that marred Iran's ties with other Gulf states.
Secret back channels
Representing a small state in a volatile region, Omani officials have created
diplomatic spaces that permit them to engage with regional issues on their own
terms and in ways that play to their strengths. As Sayyid Badr Albusaidi, a
career diplomat who became the Omani foreign minister in 2020, noted back in
2003, "We try to make use of our intermediate position between larger powers to
reduce the potential for conflict in our immediate neighborhood."Unlike Qatar,
which has attracted worldwide attention over its role as a mediator in
Hamas-Israel negotiations, Oman engages less in mediation and more in
facilitation. This is an important distinction and one the Omanis have
maintained in regards to engaging with U.S. and Iranian officials, as well as
Saudi and Houthi representatives during the decade-long Yemeni civil war. Omani
facilitation takes varied forms. It can consist of passing messages and
maintaining indirect channels of communication between adversaries or arranging
back channels and hosting discreet meetings. There is little of the publicity
seen in Qatar's mediation initiatives, such as the talks with the Taliban that
produced the 2020 Doha Agreement for the withdrawal of U.S. forces from
Afghanistan. But Oman's approach can nonetheless yield results. In his memoir,
"The Back Channel," written after his retirement from the State Department and
before his appointment as President Joe Biden's director of the CIA, William
Burns provided a detailed account of the Omani role in facilitating the back
channel between U.S. and Iranian officials in 2013 that evolved into
negotiations that produced the the Iran nuclear deal of 2015.
That back channel began after Iranian officials passed a message through
Oman to the U.S. in 2012 suggesting a meeting in Muscat, the Gulf state's
capital.
Burns recalled that the head of Omani intelligence "greeted both delegations as
we walked into the meeting room" and "offered a few brief words of welcome and
then departed." The back channel remained secret throughout eight rounds of
generally constructive dialogue that marked the longest and most sustained
engagement between Iranian and U.S. officials since 1979.
Hosting adversaries
While the thaw between the U.S. and Iran didn't last, the Omani back channel
highlighted several factors key to the success of any attempt to dial down
tensions between seemingly implacable adversaries. The trust both sides had in
Omani officials was critical, and the positive outcome of the meetings built
confidence in each side's use of Omani channels. Oman's role as a facilitator of
indirect engagement between the U.S. and Iran assumed added importance with
President Donald Trump's decision to withdraw the U.S. from the Iran nuclear
deal in 2018 and the failure of the Biden administration to reenter the
agreement. Seemingly the only time Oman has not been willing to serve this role
– when tensions soared after the U.S. killing of Iranian Gen. Qassim Soleimani
in January 2020 – was because Sultan Qaboos was critically ill. In Oman's
absence, the Swiss led the back channel.
Tamping down tensions
During the heightened tensions since the Oct. 7 attack in Israel, Oman has
passed on messages between Iranian and U.S. officials. In January 2024, Omani
officials hosted delegations of senior negotiators from both countries,
shuttling between the representatives in separate rooms. Even as a wider
regional conflict loomed in the Middle East after Israel presumably bombed an
Iranian embassy compound in Damascus on April 1, Oman was on hand to try to tamp
down tensions. On April 7, Iran's foreign minister,
Hossein Amirabdollahian, visited Oman – providing an opportunity for Omani
officials to debrief the U.S. and other Western officials on Iran's thinking as
Tehran planned its response to the Damascus attack.
And while the current crisis in the Middle East is of a magnitude that Oman
alone cannot address, the ability of trusted intermediaries such as Oman – along
with Qatar and Switzerland – to keep open channels of communication is crucial
to minimizing the possibility of any accidental escalation on the Iranian side,
and to complementing U.S. and European dialogue with Israeli leaders in the
quest to find a peaceful resolution to the standoff. This article is republished
from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original
article here:
https://theconversation.com/oman-serves-as-a-crucial-back-channel-between-iran-and-the-us-as-tensions-flare-in-the-middle-east-227975.
Iraq reaches agreement with Abu Dhabi Ports Group for
joint management of Al Faw Grand Port
Reuters/April 18/2024
Iraqi News Agency reported on Thursday that Prime Minister Mohammed Shia' Al
Sudani announced that Iraq has reached an agreement with the Abu Dhabi Ports
Group for joint management of the Al Faw Port, a major commodities port in the
southern part of the country.
Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources
published
on April 18-19/2024
Our intelligence agencies must be allowed to do that
Clifford D. May/ The Washington Times/April 18/2024
One of the many ways last weekend’s drone and missile attacks on Israel could
have been worse: If Iran’s rulers had instructed their U.S.-based operatives to
simultaneously carry out a terrorist attack, and our intelligence agencies
failed to learn about it.Preventing such a catastrophe requires that those
intelligence agencies have the ability and authority to surveil – think wiretap
– terrorists abroad and their communications with operatives in the U.S. Which
gets me to a little good news: The House last week, on a bipartisan basis, took
a step to ensure that we don’t lose what may be our most important defensive
weapon against terrorists eager to slaughter Americans on American soil. I’m
referring to the vote in favor – 147 Democrats and 126 Republicans – of the
Reforming Intelligence and Securing America Act, the bill to reauthorize the
Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA). Senate approval is necessary
before an April 19 deadline. That’s likely though hardly guaranteed.
Most significant is FISA Section 702 which permits the government to
electronically monitor the communications of foreign nationals overseas. If such
foreigners are talking to individuals in the U.S., that information also gets
collected and stored in a database that can be searched by American intelligence
officials. The legislation passed by the House
contains more than 50 reforms to the statute, including several that strengthen
oversight and impose new limitations on who can query the database. It also adds
serious criminal penalties for abuses.
“This amendment is not about Americans’ inboxes and outboxes,” emphasized House
Intelligence Committee Chairman Mike Turner. “This is not about Americans’ data.
This amendment is about Hezbollah’s data, Hamas’ data, and the Communist Chinese
Party’s data.”To search the database for evidence that an American citizen has
committed a crime would require a court order based on probable cause.
So why is this controversial? For some Republicans, it’s largely because of the
abominable behavior over recent years of too many FBI officials (think James
Comey, Andrew McCabe, and Peter Strzok) and former intelligence officials (such
as the 51 who lied to the public about Hunter Biden’s laptop to influence a
presidential election). Lining up with these Republicans are such far-left
Democrats as Rep. Pramila Jayapal and Sen. Elizabeth Warren who seem most
concerned about protecting the privacy of foreigners in America, not least those
here illegally.
Should illegal aliens enjoy the same Constitutional rights as American citizens?
I don’t think so but leave that discussion for another day. On the House floor
last week, Chairman Turner reminded his colleagues that the foreign operatives
who planned and carried out the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, were “in the United
States and communicating with al Qaeda” overseas.
But the U.S. government at that time was “not spying on al Qaeda, and we did not
see who they were communicating with in the United States.”The threat level is
extremely high now. Among the reasons: Over the past three years, thanks to the
Biden administration’s policies, pretty much anyone who wants to cross the
southern U.S. border has been able to do so. That likely means that in America
today there may be dozens, hundreds, or even thousands of people connected to al
Qaeda, ISIS, the jihadi regime in Tehran, the Communist Party of China, and
Moscow. An argument can be made that even with 702, we are not doing enough
spying. One example: Rep. Dan Crenshaw offered an amendment to the bill that
would authorize surveillance of Mexican drug cartel affiliates and the Chinese
companies that make precursors for fentanyl. It passed – but with 83 Republicans
and 60 Democrats voting against it. House Speaker Mike Johnson supported
reauthorizing 702 as does President Biden. Former President Trump earlier this
month opposed it on the grounds that “IT WAS ILLEGALLY USED AGAINST ME, AND MANY
OTHERS. THEY SPIED ON MY CAMPAIGN!!!”
Mr. Trump is apparently referring to the FBI’s improper surveillance of Carter
Page, an advisor to his 2016 campaign. But that misconduct was not related to
702. It was an instance of lying to the FISA court, for which the current
legislation provides penalties. Speaker Johnson said the reforms in the bill
would “prevent another phony Russian Hoax investigation.” If Mr. Trump returns
to the White House, he’ll find 702 essential. In 2022, 59% of the articles in
the President’s Daily Brief (PDB) contained 702 information reported by the
National Security Agency. According to a fact sheet from the Office of the
Director of National Intelligence, “Section
702-acquired information has been used to disrupt “planned terrorist attacks at
home and abroad and contributed to the successful operation against Ayman
al-Zawahiri in 2002.”Section 702 also has identified “multiple foreign
ransomware attacks on U.S. critical infrastructure.”
A little legislative history: Soon after the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11,
2001, the Intelligence Community made a strong and ultimately successful case
for expanded surveillance authority. George W. Bush was then in the White House.
Congressional Democrats, more than Republicans, tended to be skeptical about
giving America’s spies this tool, citing privacy concerns. The think tank where
I’ve long hung my hat spent much time and energy explaining to Democrats why it
was necessary to grant such authority in the interest of national security. In
2017, Congress – with President Trump’s support – reauthorized Section 702 for
six years with some restrictions. The new bill, as
noted above, contains additional guardrails, and reauthorizes FISA for only two
years. That ensures that this debate will reignite under the next president or –
if the winner of the November election doesn’t complete his term in office –
whoever follows him. That, too, is a discussion for another day.
*Clifford D. May is founder and president of the Foundation for Defense of
Democracies (FDD) and a columnist for the Washington Times.
Iran’s strikes did little damage to Israel — but analysts
say Tehran benefits anyway
“Iran’s goal was to restore its credibility and inflict
retribution on Israel while reducing the risk of further escalation," said Hasan
Alhasan, senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
By RIAD KAHWAJI/April 17, 2024
https://breakingdefense.com/2024/04/irans-strikes-did-little-damage-to-israel-but-analysts-say-tehran-benefits-anyway/
DUBAI — Iran’s massive retaliatory strike against Israel may have failed to do
any significant damage, but analysts tell Breaking Defense that the attack sent
a clear message through the region: that Iran has a formidable arsenal, one
capable of providing deterrence against any aggressive action.
The April 13 late night attack against Israel was a game changer for Iran in two
ways. First, the sheer ferocity of the attack — launching 170 kamikaze drones,
30 cruise missiles and 110 ballistic missiles on multiple targets in a five-hour
window — was unlike anything the region had seen from Tehran before. And second,
it seems to signal a new phase for Iran, as the decades long “shadow war”
between Tehran and Jerusalem has escalated into open conflict.
“Iran chose to put on a powerful yet calibrated show of force in response to
Israel’s attack on its consulate,” said Hasan Alhasan, senior fellow at the
International Institute for Strategic Studies. “Iran’s goal was to restore its
credibility and inflict retribution on Israel while reducing the risk of further
escalation.”
The United States, along with Britain and France, deployed jet fighters and
other naval and air defense assets that assisted Israel in intercepting the
Iranian drones and missiles. While the vast majority of Iranian threats were
intercepted and almost no damage occurred inside Israel, other regional players
lack the kind of deep air defenses Israel has built up over time, and may not
feel they can count on Washington or London to provide the same kind of aid.
“For other countries in the region, the Iranian attack on Israel is a preview of
the nightmare scenario involved in a direct confrontation with Iran,” Alhasan
told Breaking Defense. “Whereas Israel has the capabilities and Western support
it needs to intercept most of Iran’s missiles and UAVs, other states in the
region (which are less capable and geographically closer to Iran) do not.”Masoud Alfak, a Dubai-based expert and analyst specialized in Iranian affairs,
concurred, telling Breaking Defense that “This attack has sparked concerns among
neighboring countries lacking Israel’s robust deterrent capabilities. Iran’s
actions has demonstrated to regional states its ability to employ a combination
of missile strikes, drone attacks, and cyber warfare, demonstrating a
multifaceted approach to conflict.”When assessing the state of the art of unmanned aerial systems, it’s critical to
be very clear about what various aircraft can and can’t do – and could never do.
Alex Vatanka, the founding director of the Iran program at the Middle East
Institute in Washington, said that even though little damage was done to Israel
— and that half the ballistic missiles launched by Iran reportedly appear to
have failed to launch — Iran’s action put should put everyone on notice
“The size of Iran’s arsenal and the precision of its drones and missiles are
only going to improve. That is not good news for Israel or anyone in the region
that might be a target for Iran in the future,” said Vatanka.
Not everyone is convinced. Ken Katzman, a senior fellow at the Soufan Center,
told Breaking Defense that “The attack significantly set back Iran’s emergence
as a major regional power. The core of Iran’s strategic power, its missile and
drone arsenal, were proven failures against sophisticated air and missile
defense systems. … The regime did not establish deterrence against Israel, the
United States, and other regional players.”
But other experts counter that Iran likely had set up the attack specifically to
avoid doing any real damage and hence escalating into a true conflict with
Israel. “Iran was not trying to inflict significant damage, given how it worked
with the US to give ample warning of the attack, and how it deliberately chose
slow projectiles to give everyone enough time to prepare and shoot them down,”
said Dina Esfandiary, senior advisor Middle East and North Africa at the
International Crisis Group. “But generally, their attack was just intended to
send the message that Iran can reach all the way into Israel if it wanted to.”
Alhasan agreed, adding that, “Iran likely intended to minimise the damage from
its attack by telegraphing its intentions in advance.”
Iranian Foreign Minister Hussein Amirabdollahian told reporters a day after the
strike that Tehran contacted many players, including the United States, alerting
them to Iran’s intentions of attacking Israel and reasserting its position on
avoiding escalation regionally; the US has denied having any direct contact with
Iran. (This may be an academic difference, as both sides seem to agree Iran
notified a number of local nations of its intent, and Tehran would have known
that would serve as a back channel to both the US and Israel.) Out Of The
Shadows
The question now is whether Iran has opened the floodgates to a different kind
of tension in the region: putting open war between Israel and Iran, rather than
the “shadow war” of decades, on the table.
“It is going to be hard to go back to the era of ‘war in the shadows’ now that
this fight is in the open,” Vatanka told Breaking Defense. “The fact that they
went ahead and did this shows the regime in Tehran can be as crazy as they say
they are.”
The Crisis Group’s senior Iran analyst Naysan Rafati pointed out that “the
Iranian side is mostly focused around the fact that they took an unprecedented
step of striking against Israel overtly — a notable break from their
decades-long strategy of building up allies along Israel’s borders and working
indirectly through them.”Rafati told Breaking Defense that “the key takeaway is probably that within the
Iranian system, those who argue for more aggressive and high-risk actions
clearly have the upper hand,” which is driving global concern of a major
escalation in the conflict.
What comes next is uncertain. The US reportedly has told Israeli Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu not to escalate further. However, members of Netanyahu’s
cabinet have stated that they will have to respond.
The only thing that is clear: Regional players are watching, and watching
closely, not only for what Israel will do but how the US and its allies will
react. In that regard, the US may have received one ancillary boost from this weekend’s
activity: Other powers like Saudi Arabia or the UAE may feel they can trust the
American missile defense umbrella again, following the erosion of confidence
between Washington and its major Arab Gulf allies after the US failed to stop an
attack by drones and cruise missiles fired by the Iranian-backed Houthi militias
in Yemen against Saudi oil facilities in 2019.
Katzman told Breaking Defense that by spearheading the aerial defense to protect
Israel from the Iranian drones the United States has made major advances towards
regaining “the regional trust and confidence in the U.S. commitment to the
region’s stability.”
The 'Better' Civilians of Gaza
Alan M. Dershowitz/Gatestone Institute./April 18, 2024
Among the so-called innocent "civilians" who Hamas claims have been killed by
Israel, there are thousands of guilty and complicit civilians without whose
assistance Hamas could not have succeeded in their barbarisms.
When Hamas provides its self-serving numbers of those allegedly killed by
Israel, they refuse to distinguish between combatants and civilians. They
certainly do not identify complicit "civilians," nor do they indicate how many
were killed by the "friendly fire" of Hamas and other terrorist groups, whose
rockets routinely misfire and land within Gaza. In a deliberate effort to
mislead, Hamas instead purports to list the number of women and children who
have been killed. But they include terrorists under the age of 19 as "children"
and female terrorists as "women."
All in all, the number of absolutely innocent Gazans — babies, children and
adults who are not complicit in Hamas crimes — is a fraction of those claimed by
Israel's enemies, including so-called human rights groups.
It is time for a thorough and objective investigation of the actual status of
all those allegedly killed by Israeli military actions. The results will show
that Israel has achieved a remarkably low and unheard of ratio of combatants and
complicit civilians to innocent civilians.
Some civilians in Gaza bear "a heavy responsibility for all these crimes
committed by the government they have chosen themselves." Consider the Gazan
civilians who followed the terrorists into Israel on October 7. These civilians
captured a nurse named Nili Margalit and, after murdering other Israelis,
abducted her to Gaza, where they displayed her to the "jubilant crowds" of
civilians who cheered her kidnappers. Pictured: A Hamas terrorist and
Palestinian civilian accomplices enter Kibbutz Be'eri to murder, rape, torture
and abduct Jews, on October 7, 2023. (Image source: Kibbutz Be'eri security
camera)
"The crimes committed by the Germans are horrible and one hears on every corner
of the misery and losses they have intentionally brought over the peoples. The
strangest thing is that even the better people among the Germans are not
conscious of their heavy responsibility for all these crimes committed by the
government they have chosen themselves, and that the outside world is rather
inclined to forget about it."
Those words were written by Albert Einstein on September 16, 1945, shortly after
the end of World War II, in a letter I was fortunate enough to acquire.
That letter could have been written to the so-called innocent adult civilians in
Gaza. They too bear "a heavy responsibility for all these crimes committed by
the government they have chosen themselves." They elected Hamas and, according
to recent polls, continue to support it and would vote for those terrorists
again. Some are more responsible than others. Consider, for example, the civilians who
followed the terrorists into Israel on October 7. These civilians captured a
nurse named Nili Margalit, forcibly transported her to Gaza after murdering
other Israelis who were hiding in a shelter. When those civilians returned to
Gaza, they displayed her to the "jubilant crowds" of civilians who cheered her
civilian kidnappers.
Other Gazan civilians were not as directly complicit in Hamas's murders, rapes,
beheadings and kidnappings, but they made these crimes possible by spying for
Hamas when they were given employment by the Israeli kibbutzim. In one notorious
case, a peace activist named Vivian Silver was hiding in her safe room, which
the terrorists quickly identified, then burned her alive. She had earlier helped
Gazan civilians to receive medical attention in Israeli hospitals, and invited
them to her home. It is likely that these civilians pinpointed the location of
her home to the terrorists.
Other Gazan civilians permitted their homes to be used to hide and launch
rockets, while still others allowed their children to be used as human shields.
Some civilians are apparently hiding or helping to hide hostages. Many are
providing financial and logistical support.
Among the so-called innocent "civilians" who Hamas claims have been killed by
Israel, there are thousands of guilty and complicit civilians without whose
assistance Hamas could not have succeeded in their barbarisms.
Innocence and complicity are matters of degree, especially when terrorists are
supported by so much of the population. It is hard to shed tears if the
"civilians" who kidnapped and sold Margalit were among the collateral damage. It
is not hard to shed tears for completely innocent babies and young children,
especially if they were used as human shields.
In the film The Accused, a woman played by Jodie Foster is raped in a crowded
bar. The actual rapists are the most guilty. The men who pinned her down and
those who blocked her from escaping were criminal accessories. Those who cheered
on the rapists were morally if not legally complicit, as were those who could
easily have called the police to intervene but failed to do so.
The same is true of many of the civilians of Gaza. Even if not technically
combatants, they are complicit in the Hamas murders, rapes and kidnappings.
When Hamas provides its self-serving numbers of those allegedly killed by
Israel, they refuse to distinguish between combatants and civilians. They
certainly do not identify complicit "civilians," nor do they indicate how many
were killed by the "friendly fire" of Hamas and other terrorist groups, whose
rockets routinely misfire and land within Gaza. In a deliberate effort to
mislead, Hamas instead purports to list the number of women and children who
have been killed. But they include terrorists under the age of 19 as "children"
and female terrorists as "women."
All in all, the number of absolutely innocent Gazans — babies, children and
adults who are not complicit in Hamas crimes — is a fraction of those claimed by
Israel's enemies, including so-called human rights groups.
It is time for a thorough and objective investigation of the actual status of
all those allegedly killed by Israeli military actions. The results will show
that Israel has achieved a remarkably low and unheard of ratio of combatants and
complicit civilians to innocent civilians. The Israelis have killed far fewer
innocent civilians—both in absolute and proportional numbers— than any nation in
the history of fighting terrorism in urban areas.
Einstein would have understood that even many — though not all — of the
"innocent civilians" of Gaza, like the "better people among the Germans," bear
"heavy responsibility" for the crimes of Hamas.
**Alan M. Dershowitz is the Felix Frankfurter Professor of Law, Emeritus at
Harvard Law School, and the author most recently of War Against the Jews: How to
End Hamas Barbarism. He is the Jack Roth Charitable Foundation Fellow at
Gatestone Institute, and is also the host of "The Dershow" podcast.
© 2024 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
The 'Better' Civilians of Gaza
Alan M. Dershowitz/Gatestone Institute./April 18, 2024
Among the so-called innocent "civilians" who Hamas claims have been killed by
Israel, there are thousands of guilty and complicit civilians without whose
assistance Hamas could not have succeeded in their barbarisms.
When Hamas provides its self-serving numbers of those allegedly killed by
Israel, they refuse to distinguish between combatants and civilians. They
certainly do not identify complicit "civilians," nor do they indicate how many
were killed by the "friendly fire" of Hamas and other terrorist groups, whose
rockets routinely misfire and land within Gaza. In a deliberate effort to
mislead, Hamas instead purports to list the number of women and children who
have been killed. But they include terrorists under the age of 19 as "children"
and female terrorists as "women."
All in all, the number of absolutely innocent Gazans — babies, children and
adults who are not complicit in Hamas crimes — is a fraction of those claimed by
Israel's enemies, including so-called human rights groups.
It is time for a thorough and objective investigation of the actual status of
all those allegedly killed by Israeli military actions. The results will show
that Israel has achieved a remarkably low and unheard of ratio of combatants and
complicit civilians to innocent civilians.
Some civilians in Gaza bear "a heavy responsibility for all these crimes
committed by the government they have chosen themselves." Consider the Gazan
civilians who followed the terrorists into Israel on October 7. These civilians
captured a nurse named Nili Margalit and, after murdering other Israelis,
abducted her to Gaza, where they displayed her to the "jubilant crowds" of
civilians who cheered her kidnappers. Pictured: A Hamas terrorist and
Palestinian civilian accomplices enter Kibbutz Be'eri to murder, rape, torture
and abduct Jews, on October 7, 2023. (Image source: Kibbutz Be'eri security
camera)
"The crimes committed by the Germans are horrible and one hears on every corner
of the misery and losses they have intentionally brought over the peoples. The
strangest thing is that even the better people among the Germans are not
conscious of their heavy responsibility for all these crimes committed by the
government they have chosen themselves, and that the outside world is rather
inclined to forget about it."
Those words were written by Albert Einstein on September 16, 1945, shortly after
the end of World War II, in a letter I was fortunate enough to acquire.
That letter could have been written to the so-called innocent adult civilians in
Gaza. They too bear "a heavy responsibility for all these crimes committed by
the government they have chosen themselves." They elected Hamas and, according
to recent polls, continue to support it and would vote for those terrorists
again.
Some are more responsible than others. Consider, for example, the civilians who
followed the terrorists into Israel on October 7. These civilians captured a
nurse named Nili Margalit, forcibly transported her to Gaza after murdering
other Israelis who were hiding in a shelter. When those civilians returned to
Gaza, they displayed her to the "jubilant crowds" of civilians who cheered her
civilian kidnappers.
Other Gazan civilians were not as directly complicit in Hamas's murders, rapes,
beheadings and kidnappings, but they made these crimes possible by spying for
Hamas when they were given employment by the Israeli kibbutzim. In one notorious
case, a peace activist named Vivian Silver was hiding in her safe room, which
the terrorists quickly identified, then burned her alive. She had earlier helped
Gazan civilians to receive medical attention in Israeli hospitals, and invited
them to her home. It is likely that these civilians pinpointed the location of
her home to the terrorists.
Other Gazan civilians permitted their homes to be used to hide and launch
rockets, while still others allowed their children to be used as human shields.
Some civilians are apparently hiding or helping to hide hostages. Many are
providing financial and logistical support.
Among the so-called innocent "civilians" who Hamas claims have been killed by
Israel, there are thousands of guilty and complicit civilians without whose
assistance Hamas could not have succeeded in their barbarisms.
Innocence and complicity are matters of degree, especially when terrorists are
supported by so much of the population. It is hard to shed tears if the
"civilians" who kidnapped and sold Margalit were among the collateral damage. It
is not hard to shed tears for completely innocent babies and young children,
especially if they were used as human shields.
In the film The Accused, a woman played by Jodie Foster is raped in a crowded
bar. The actual rapists are the most guilty. The men who pinned her down and
those who blocked her from escaping were criminal accessories. Those who cheered
on the rapists were morally if not legally complicit, as were those who could
easily have called the police to intervene but failed to do so.
The same is true of many of the civilians of Gaza. Even if not technically
combatants, they are complicit in the Hamas murders, rapes and kidnappings.
When Hamas provides its self-serving numbers of those allegedly killed by
Israel, they refuse to distinguish between combatants and civilians. They
certainly do not identify complicit "civilians," nor do they indicate how many
were killed by the "friendly fire" of Hamas and other terrorist groups, whose
rockets routinely misfire and land within Gaza. In a deliberate effort to
mislead, Hamas instead purports to list the number of women and children who
have been killed. But they include terrorists under the age of 19 as "children"
and female terrorists as "women."
All in all, the number of absolutely innocent Gazans — babies, children and
adults who are not complicit in Hamas crimes — is a fraction of those claimed by
Israel's enemies, including so-called human rights groups.
It is time for a thorough and objective investigation of the actual status of
all those allegedly killed by Israeli military actions. The results will show
that Israel has achieved a remarkably low and unheard of ratio of combatants and
complicit civilians to innocent civilians. The Israelis have killed far fewer
innocent civilians—both in absolute and proportional numbers— than any nation in
the history of fighting terrorism in urban areas.
Einstein would have understood that even many — though not all — of the
"innocent civilians" of Gaza, like the "better people among the Germans," bear
"heavy responsibility" for the crimes of Hamas.
**Alan M. Dershowitz is the Felix Frankfurter Professor of Law, Emeritus at
Harvard Law School, and the author most recently of War Against the Jews: How to
End Hamas Barbarism. He is the Jack Roth Charitable Foundation Fellow at
Gatestone Institute, and is also the host of "The Dershow" podcast.
© 2024 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
The path that led to Iran’s attack on Israel was one of US
appeasement
Richard Goldberg/The Jewish Chronicle/April 18/2024
The Biden administration must begin taking the Islamic Republic’s threat to
world peace seriously. To understand how we got to
Iran’s attack against Israel last weekend, you have to look back at the policy
of appeasement pursued by the Biden administration since 2021. To begin with,
his campaign pledged to re-enter the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA),
a deal signed during the Obama administration to restrict Iran’s ability to
develop nuclear weapons, which President Trump had quit in 2018.
We then witnessed Iran escalate tensions to see what the US response would be.
At every single turn, invariably, America’s response was offers of accommodation
and a total lack of punishment. In January 2021, between Biden being elected and
taking office, Iran first crossed the threshold to create 20 per cent enriched
uranium. A new president was coming in and they wanted to lay down a marker.
Next, Biden appointed Robert Malley, a well-known Iran appeaser, as a special
envoy for Iran, continued to offer to go back to the Iran nuclear deal and took
the Houthi militia in Yemen off the foreign terrorist organisation list. What
did Iran do in response? Appointed Ebrahim Raisi, the face of the Islamic
revolution, the human rights abuser-in-chief of Iran, president. So the veneer
of Hassan Rouhani, the former president, and other moderate forces in Iran, were
gone. Raisi filled his cabinet with sanctioned individuals and this terrorist
cabinet said to America: “OK, if you still want to negotiate, come back to
us.”The United States went back to negotiate, even though Iran had ratcheted up
their enrichment from 20 to 60 per cent high enrichment uranium, significantly
closer to weapons grade. The regime then installed more advanced centrifuges,
got caught producing uranium metal, a core component of nuclear weapons, and
started limiting the International Atomic Energy Agency inspections at different
facilities.
All the Biden administration did each time was reduce pressure. Not only did it
not impose sanctions, it eased the existing ones. Amazingly, America became even
less hawkish than the Europeans on Iran in some respects. What Iran learnt from
all of this is that it can get away with anything. The regime can keep moving
towards that nuclear threshold and still get offers of economic relief. It was
only the murder of Mahsa Amini by Iran’s “morality police” and the protests this
sparked across the country that briefly halted the appeasement.
Last year, the US offered to open up spigots of money while allowing the regime
to trade oil freely with China. In exchange, they asked Iran to stay below the
90 per cent weapons-grade uranium threshold, to not send short range ballistic
missiles to Russia and to stop attacking Americans in the Middle East. Iran came
into a major windfall as oil exports rose above two million barrels per day for
the first time since the JCPOA period, and $6 billion was released to them as
part of a ransom payment to free five American hostages.
Then October 7 hit. What was the response of the US, the UK, and everyone else?
Nothing. We downplayed Iran’s connection to Hamas and insisted the Islamic
regime was not behind this attack.
A UN Security Council embargo on missile sales to Iran was due to expire ten
days after October 7. All the UK, France and Germany, with US support, had to do
was send a letter to the Security Council to trigger a snapback sanctions
resolution that would have stopped that embargo from expiring. But they didn’t.
Perhaps they fear escalation. But again, what is Iran learning? A $10
billion sanctions waiver allowing the Iraqi government to buy energy from the
regime got renewed in November a month after October 7 and it got renewed again
last month.
Meanwhile, three Americans have been killed in Jordan by Iran-backed militias,
missiles are now raining down on the Red Sea from the Houthis, and Israel is
being attacked from Lebanon.
International pressure is applied to Israel while we see ever greater escalation
from Iran. Over the past three years, we have allowed an arc of accommodation
that has emboldened the Islamic Republic and increased the chances of regional
war. It must end now.
**Rich Goldberg is the former director for Countering Iranian Weapons of Mass
Destruction for the White House National Security Council and a senior adviser
at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. He appears with Jake Wallis Simons
on the latest episode of The Jewish Chronicle Israel War Briefing podcast.
History has been made as Arabs fought alongside Israel
MARK DUBOWITZ/The telegraph/April 18/ 2024
Contrary to narratives that Israel has isolated itself, several Arab states have
lent their support to defend the country.
Iran’s Islamist ruler Ali Khamenei made history with his unprecedented direct
attack on Israel on Saturday night, but not, perhaps, in the way he intended.
By dispatching a barrage of more than 300 missiles and drones into Israeli
territory, the Islamic Republic of Iran removed any doubts about its ambition to
wipe Israel from the map, even if its execution fell woefully short. However,
the supreme leader quickly discovered that many of his Arab neighbors do not
share his genocidal goal – one key reason why the attack has left Iran, not
Israel, appearing vulnerable and isolated politically and militarily.
The operation to thwart Khamenei’s assault was led by the Israelis with support
from the US, the United Kingdom and other countries. Yet what was historic was
the role played by Sunni Arab nations, who “quietly passed along intelligence
about Tehran’s attack plans, opened their airspace to warplanes, shared radar
tracking information or, in some cases, supplied their own forces to help.”
The list included Arab countries who maintain a cold peace with Israel, like
Jordan, and those who may one day have a warm peace but don’t yet recognise the
Jewish state, like Saudi Arabia. Tehran informed the Arab countries of their
plan of attack in advance, information that was immediately telegraphed to the
US. Once the attack began, the Iranian weapons were tracked by radar in the Gulf
countries and relayed to US Central Command in Qatar, which then transmitted the
intelligence to fighter jets and warships in the region, including those of the
Jordanian Air Force, decisively repelling the Iranian barrage. This first
instance of live military cooperation between Israel and Arab countries in the
face of a common enemy went way beyond the mere intelligence sharing under the
table which had been the norm. The Arabs had a choice; they could have acceded
to the Islamic Republic’s aggression, and stayed out of the fight which would
have been unsurprising given their fear of Tehran and their skepticism of
American resolve.
But they elected to combat the threat. They did so because it is the Islamic
Republic, not the Jewish state, that is regarded in most Arab capitals as the
far greater threat, and because, contrary to conventional belief, it is
Khamenei’s regional ambitions and not the unresolved Palestinian question that
keeps Arab leaders awake in the small hours. This burgeoning strategic reality
in the Middle East represents a golden opportunity to definitively remove the
principal threat to peace and stability in the region. Since the Hamas
atrocities in southern Israel on October 7 and the subsequent war in Gaza, all
the focus – from governments, NGOs, the UN and other international agencies, and
the media – has been on Israeli motives and Israeli actions. Utterly lost in the
mix has been Tehran’s role in arming, financing and sustaining its Hamas proxy
and its proxies elsewhere in the Middle East.
Khamenei’s most dangerous proxy, Lebanese Hezbollah, has launched nearly
constant missile strikes that have already driven 60,000 residents of northern
Israel from their homes. Last weekend’s Iranian attack has underlined that
Khamenei sits at the head of an octopus whose tentacles extend into Israel and
across the region, challenging not just Israel’s right to exist, but the
internal order and well-being of the Sunni Arab countries.
Any initiative to weaken and ultimately remove the regime in Iran from power is
not going to come from the Arab countries; but should the United States or
Israel take such a course of action, they have signaled their willingness to act
as reliable, if silent, partners. A number of options for achieving such an
outcome are now in the frame.
Diplomatically, the US and the EU are already preparing a new round of sanctions
against the Islamic Republic, whose economy is dominated by companies and front
organisations linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) – a foreign
terrorist organisation designated by the US. There is now growing pressure among
EU member states for Brussels and for the United Kingdom and Canada, separately,
to make a similar determination.
In addition, the US, the UK, France or Germany also must individually or
collectively snap back the UN arms embargo, which expired in 2020, and the UN
missile embargo which expired in 2023, as part of the ill-fated 2015 nuclear
deal arrangement. That unilateral snapback expires next year. It must be used
now or lost soon. It’s also long past the time to crack down on Iranian oil
exports, the lifeblood of the regime, that have spiked since President Biden
abandoned the economic pressure campaign of his predecessor.
Most importantly, there is an opportunity for the “deal of the century” that
would build upon the historic Abraham Accords that laid the foundation for the
Israeli-Arab-American cooperation that we saw over the weekend. The US, which
has prevailed upon the Israelis to show “restraint,” should push the Saudis to
recognise, and make a permanent peace with, the Jewish state.
On the military front, there are effective pathways short of an all-out assault
on Iran. As the regime proceeds with the most dangerous phase of its nuclear
program – weaponisation – Israel, in tandem with western intelligence agencies,
should concentrate its efforts on assassinating or recruiting the scientists
leading it. There is also an urgent need to disable a subterranean new facility
in Natanz, in central Iran, that reportedly will go more than 100m underground
to be used for nuclear weapons enrichment. Predicted to be heavily fortified, it
could be impervious to Israeli and even American bombs.
While these nuclear capabilities may not be targets for an immediate reprisal,
it takes time to execute such complicated operations. Israel has special weapons
and cyber capabilities to target immediately Iran’s missile and drone
capabilities, energy infrastructure and leadership assets.
The alternative is to lose the positive momentum from the failed Iranian attack.
The regime would impose a “new normal” on Israel by joining with its proxies in
further missile and drone attacks and changing the risk calculus of Israeli
military planners the next time they need to take out the Islamic Republic’s
dangerous men and capabilities. Those western countries insisting that Israel’s
air defenses are sufficient to rebuff Iranian ambitions forget that while the
Israelis share our liberal democratic order, they do so in a tough and merciless
neighborhood.
Israel’s neighbors aren’t Scotland or Canada. Deterrence by denial through air
defenses is not enough – what’s also required to establish real deterrence is a
strong stick and a willingness to punish enemies who seek your destruction. When
it acts, Israel may risk losing support from Europeans or Americans who prefer
the niceties of defense but lose their spine on the offense. But, in the Middle
East, as our Arab allies well understand, it’s better to be alive than popular.
When Iran Speaks Frankly, We Refuse To Believe It!
Hazem Saghieh/Asharq Al-Awsat/April 18/2024
Putting to one side the catchy, upbeat rhetoric about “shaking the ground under
the feet of the Zionists,” “undermining the foundations of occupation” and so
on, Iran’s response to the consulate strike can be interpreted in one of two
ways:
* One is that this was a military failure. The attack yielded very poor results
and little fruit, leaving Iran in a worse position than the one it tried to
avenge and confirming that its offensive and defensive actions, as well as its
high and low intensity military operations... are all equally prone to failure.
If it is true that Tehran managed to paint a beautiful fiery scene in the skies
of the Middle East, the fact remains that aesthetics, as far as we know, are not
our concern here, and it is the last thing on the minds of Iran’s rulers in the
first place.
* The second is that Iran had deliberately planned to fail, as indicated by the
statements of senior officials and military figures within the Khomeinist
regime. Indeed, it seemed that the military operations were declared over almost
before they had begun. Their action cannot even be called a “hit and run,”
because it did not hit anything. Now, these officials have confirmed that Iran
did not intend to target the United States or Iran’s neighbors. Rather, the
officials have stressed that they had told the US and countries in the region
about the operation in detail. Another step they took in order to avert an
expansion of the conflict and prevent the battle from getting out of hand and
becoming difficult to control, was to leave the Iranian proxies closest to
Israel geographically out of the operation.
In fact, they went even further in their effort to reassure their adversaries,
stressing that they did not target any of the “Zionist enemy’s” “economic and
civilian sites” and that their strikes were “precise,” whereby they did not do
any real damage. And so, the focus quickly shifted from an event that seems to
have never occurred to one that everyone fears could occur, Israel’s reprisal.
As for the campaign against the countries that helped the Jewish state repel the
attack, it is meaningless because Iran had itself behaved like it was calling on
these countries to come to the Jewish state’s aid.
The fact is that the two interpretations converge around a single conclusion:
both failure and deliberately foiling its own attack mean that Iran does not
want to go to war, regardless of the genocidal campaign that Israel has launched
on the population in Gaza, and of course, of the virtues that Iran’s allies
attribute to it. While some have claimed that the attack falls within the
framework of its conflict with Israel and that it was launched in isolation of
the war in Gaza, the fact remains that such an assessment is excessively
generous; even within this framework, the attack did nothing but “save face.”
Avoiding war is well within the rights of Iran, which is burdened by an economic
collapse, technological decline, and deteriorating domestic conditions, so long
as this avoidance is not accompanied by actions like urging others to go to war
and funding conflicts in neighboring countries.
Leaders and patrons cannot push their soldiers to fight without fighting in
perpetuity, or without striving for victory for fear of its repercussions.
The formula of an officer who pushes his soldiers to behave with a heroism that
he steers clear of himself is an anathema to all doctrines of military science.
There are probably many factors that have allowed for the implementation of this
formula, including the pain and suffering that Israel’s crimes have inflicted on
the Palestinians, which laid the foundations for this broad receptiveness to
Iran’s traditional claims. However, the more potent factor is a shade of
political culture, at the forefront of which is a peculiar conception of
victory.
When we do not suffer overwhelming defeat, we declare victory, and our fantasy
is reinforced by the arrogance of those Israelis who see themselves as having
been defeated when they do not achieve a sweeping victory. Today, with Israel
having been hurt by real and severe damage to its economy and image, a few
lights in its sky have become enough to prove that we achieved a great
historical breakthrough, making us forget the Jewish state’s relentless mass
killing, occupation, man-made famine, and displacement, leaving all that outside
our assessments of losses and gains.
With such a frame of mind, accountability becomes impossible, as our vision
becomes so blurred that images become a blur and the blur becomes the images.
But will this capacity to believe the unbelievable endure after everything that
happened?
To be fair, Iran did not lie to us this time. True, its claims of being keen on
peace in the region cannot be taken seriously. However, the claim is a sort of
ruse to avoid telling the blunt truth that Iran has said in various different
ways: it does not want to fight. However, some among us have taken the
projection of their desires onto the real world so far that they refuse to
believe Iran when it does not lie. It is painful enough when our mind stubbornly
refuses to get off its unruly horse, declaring victory with a wink, then winking
with its other eye to announce the end of the world, and continuing on its path
regardless of what is happening under its nose and before its eyes.
All of that is cause for deep sorrow.
A Reading Of Iran’s Retaliation
Hanna Saleh/Asharq Al-Awsat/April 18/2024
It was an extremely brief but very loud battle. It took Iran two weeks to
retaliate against Israel, and Iran achieved nothing. Not a single roof fell, and
the Israelis did not suffer a single casualty.
A lot of suspense was generated in the build-up to the attack. Israel's
targeting of the Iranian consulate in Damascus was a blow to the head that left
all the Quds Force generals in the operations room dead. After Supreme Leader
Khamenei threatened that Israel would regret the attack, emphasizing that his
nation sought revenge (...), Tehran seemed obligated to launch a direct attack.
Hiding behind Iranian proxies became untenable, and the mullah regime launched
its first military operation since the Iran-Iraq war.
After the decision to retaliate directly had been made. The head of the IRGC
claimed that Israel would cease to exist, alarming the world. The night of April
13-14 was zero hour. The retaliation was a show of force, with Tehran launching
approximately 330 drones and missiles (both cruise and ballistic). Millions
watched live, glued to their screens, as the drones and missiles crossed the
skies of Iraq before reaching Jordan and Syria. However, the coordinated
American-British-Israeli response disrupted it, starting from the
Jordanian-Syrian border with Iraq. Only 7 ballistic missiles reached their
targets, doing modest damage to the Ramon Airbase in the Negev, where the
advanced F-35 fifth-generation jets are located!
Washington had been warned before zero hour. Iran's Foreign Minister,
Abdollahian, has revealed that “Tehran informed Washington that the attacks
would be limited and launched in self-defense.” The extensive attack mirrored
Iranian’s actions following the assassination of Qasem Soleimani; it was Ain
Al-Assad operation 2.0, the only difference being that hundreds of drones and
missiles took hours to reach their intended targets. The fact that prior warning
had been given makes one thing clear: this was an attempt by the Iranians to
save face and avoid the full-scale war that Netanyahu seeks and Washington is
trying to avert. As for the results on the ground,
Washington saw it as a victory for Israel. However, this major incident requires
diligent and precise analysis. Although Netanyahu might want to say: “Thank you,
Khamenei,” both Tehran and Tel Aviv scored points, though Israel has the edge.
The following points should be considered:
Firstly, this is the first time that Iran has attacked Israel directly, meaning
that it is a significant development that will have implications for Iran and
the Axis of Resistance.
Domestically, the IRGC’s role in political life will be reinforced. Abroad, the
morale of the Quds Force subordinates and regime loyalists (who had been shocked
by the “strategic patience” approach that Iran had adopted, avoiding retaliation
to Israeli strikes) will be boosted. Notably, despite the disparity between
Israel’s Western arsenal and Iran’s, which seemed more loud fireworks than
destructive weapons, the narrative that Israel has lost its superiority is
beginning to surface, as reflected by protests in Tehran, Beirut, and elsewhere!
Secondly, the interconnectedness of the Iranian axis's arenas, from Yemen to
southern Lebanon and Iraq, was evident over the five hours in which the attack
unfolded. It affirmed that this linkage only serves Iran's supreme interests.
Thirdly, Iran has said that it launched the attack in self-defense; it does not
want a full-scale war, nor will it let future attacks go answered. Indeed, Iran
has maintained its right to retaliate, in the event that its interests are
targeted, it would launch a larger and more decisive attack than the “Al-Waad
Al-Sadiq” (Ture Promise) operation. This rhetoric is intended to open the doors
for new understandings and a power-sharing arraignment. Tehran wants the West to
recognize it as a prominent power in the region; its goal is to reinforce its
position and be given free rein!
Fourthly, Netanyahu now has a pretext to strike Iranian territory. Some in
Israel believe this is the right time to address the most prominent threats Iran
poses: its nuclear program, ballistic weapons, and drones. Indeed, this
assessment is broadly seen as the best way to deal with the Mullah regime, which
is seen as a threat to regional and global security. In this context, what the
attack demonstrated about Iran's technological capabilities grants Israel and
its backers more time.
Retaliation is undoubtedly on the Israeli war cabinet’s agenda. However,
Netanyahu let the success that has been achieved, by Israel and the West more
broadly, sink in, allowing him to regain his authority and influence. The
blockade his people had put him under has been broken, and the countdown to time
in power has been paused after Tehran's audacious attack on Israel. The
anti-government demonstrations and calls for early elections will likely be put
on hold for the time being.
Fifthly, US and Western support for Israel will increase. Iran’s wings, its
proxies, will be clipped to prevent another “October 7th.” Moreover, Gaza will
become more isolated, the pressure on Rafah will be ramped up, and “surgical”
military operations to undermine what remains of Hamas will expand in scope.
Serious discussions regarding the fate of the devastated Strip will be delayed,
and a resolution to the Palestinian question will be put on hold until the US
elections!
Sixthly, the situation in Lebanon will be concerning. The severity of the
strikes launched on April 14th, which hit sites in the South and in the eastern
Bekaa, show what awaits the country, which the Israelis have turned into a bank
of targets. Israel has also imposed a security belt along the towns close to the
Blue Line dividing Lebanon and Israel and it has escalated its attacks on
agricultural land. Locations that it believes to be Hezbollah supply lines,
missile storage sites, and drone depots will be targeted, preempting an attempt
to launch another “October 7” from South Lebanon. This is a priority for the
Israelis, and the US and NATO support its efforts to bring security to northern
Israel.
Those who have been overwhelmed by euphoria - especially Hezbollah, which claims
it has not yet shown all the weapons it has in its arsenal, which it claims is
merely a fraction of what Tehran has shown - would benefit from pondering a
statement by Henry Kissinger: Nations’ success is not measured by how many wars
they win, but how successful they are in preventing them.”