Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on April 17-18/2024
You are invited to watch a film about the life of Blessed Brother Estephan Nehme, the Lebanese Maronite monk, on April 24, 25, 27
Gallant says 'better to reach an agreement' with Lebanon
Israeli air force states fighter jets hit Hezbollah infrastructure in Lebanon's Baalbek
Gradual Escalation in South Lebanon
Hezbollah’s attack on Israeli military command center injures 14
Presidential Election: ‘Failure’ for National Moderation, ‘Stalemate’ for Quintet
Quintet ambassadors meet Franjieh, Gemayel as they resume presidential mission
Lebanon says Israeli agents likely killed Hezbollah-linked currency exchanger near Beirut
Amal-LF ‘War of Words’ over Municipal Elections
Berri tells Geagea municipal vote 'not possible' without south
Parliament to discuss municipal vote postponement on April 25
Bassil says FPM defeated 'conspiracy of eliminating it'
Lebanon Likely to Postpone Municipal Elections for 3rd Time amid Political Division
Israeli jamming operation causes disruption to GPS, TV, satellite channels, and cell communications in southern Lebanon: NNA
MEA reschedules Dubai flight due to weather conditions - statement
Army: Azzouniyeh Crime Suspects Arrested
New Attempt to Smuggle Syrians Into Lebanon Foiled
Mount Lebanon Land Registry: From Total Closing to Partial Reopening
Lebanon’s fragility highlighted ahead of civil war anniversary/Mohamed Chebaro/Arab News/April 17, 2024

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on April 17-18/2024
Father of boy accused of stabbing 2 Sydney clerics saw no signs of extremism, Muslim leader says
Israel-Hamas talks on Gaza truce 'stalling'
Israel president in Jerusalem talks with British, German FMs
Israel mulls retaliatory strike on Iran, decision postponed: Axios
Israel Reserves ‘Right to Protect Itself’ after Iran Attack, Says Netanyahu
UN Security Council to vote Friday on Palestinian UN membership
UN agency says staff, other Gaza detainees subjected to ill-treatment
UN Security Council to Vote Friday on Palestinian UN Membership
Iranian military says it is ready to deal with any Israeli attack
Iran shows military might as tensions with Israel soar
Jordan says Israeli retaliation for Iran strikes risks wider regional war
Israel accused of stepping up work on illegal settlements since start of Gaza war
German-Iranian chamber of commerce speaks out against new sanctions
Qatar says Gaza ceasefire talks at 'delicate phase'
UN Agency Says Staff, Other Gaza Detainees Subjected to Ill-Treatment
Jordan Thwarts Relentless Iranian Efforts to Target its Security
Joly to Israel: 'Take the win' in thwarting Iran's weekend attack, don't retaliate
EU leaders wanted to talk competitiveness. Middle East tensions and Ukraine top their summit list
Saudis, UAE Warn of War Dangers as Israel-Iran Tensions Boil
Iran president to visit Pakistan 'very soon', PM Sharif says
Iran shuts down nuclear facilities over fears of Israel attack
CENTCOM Forces Successfully Engage 2 Houthi UAVs
Egypt, Türkiye Forge Closer Ties After Ending Rift

Titles For The Latest English LCCC  analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources on April 17-18/2024
Can Netanyahu avoid triggering a regional war?/Analysis by Nic Robertson, CNN/Wed, April 17, 2024
What We Can Learn From Iran’s Attack on Israel/Bradley Bowman, Ryan Brobst, Mike Daum/FDD Insight/April 17/2024
Toward a Jihadist Caliphate/Nils A. Haug/Gatestone Institute./April 17, 2024
Iran Is its Own Worst Enemy/Tariq Al-Homayed/Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper/April 17/2024
Winston Churchill Gets the Last Word on Islam/Raymond Ibrahim/April 17/2024
Will the post-1920 maps survive the Middle East’s great implosion?/Eyad Abu Shakra/Asharq Al-Awsat/April 17, 2024
Saturday Night’s Attack: What’s at Stake for the Pasdaran?/Michel Touma/This is Beirut/April 17/2024

Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on April 17-18/2024
You are invited to watch a film about the life of Blessed Brother Estephan Nehme, the Lebanese Maronite monk, on April 24, 25, 27
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/128930/128930/
لشراء بطاقات الدخول اتصل بشربل باسيل على الرقم التالي 399-7931 (416

Gallant says 'better to reach an agreement' with Lebanon
Naharnet/April 17/2024
Israeli Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant has visited Israel’s northern border, where he held an operational situation assessment together with senior army officials and troops operating in the area of the Western Galilee. Gallant held a discussion with army commanders about “the importance of the operational activity conducted to drive Hezbollah forces away from the border area,” Israeli media reports said. Gallant later visited the Galilee Hospital in Nahariya, where he met with injured troops. “I am convinced that we will reach the stage when our citizens (in the north) will be able to return to their homes safely – we will achieve this either via military action or via an agreement. It is always better to (reach) an agreement (with Lebanon), but we are preparing for all possibilities,” Gallant added.

Israeli air force states fighter jets hit Hezbollah infrastructure in Lebanon's Baalbek
Reuters/April 17/2024
Israel's Air Force said on Wednesday its fighter jets struck Hezbollah infrastructure north of Baalbek in eastern Lebanon amid concerns that increased exchanges of fire between Israel and Hezbollah could fuel further escalation. "Earlier this evening, fighter jets struck significant Hezbollah [...] infrastructure used by the [...] organization's aerial defense system in northern Baalbek," the statement said.

Gradual Escalation in South Lebanon
This Is Beirut/April 17/2024 
Tensions rose again on Wednesday on the southern borders, following a night marked by violent exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and the Israeli army. In the afternoon, the Israeli army announced that six soldiers had been wounded in a bombardment from southern Lebanon on a building in Arab el-Aramcheh. One of the wounded is in critical condition. Moreover, Hezbollah claimed responsibility for the bombing of the Mayroun barracks, targeting the Israeli air control unit. Hezbollah launched earlier rockets towards the Israeli Branit barracks, Wednesday at around 7:45 AM. Later, an Israeli airstrike was reported in the town of Aita al-Shaab around seven minutes after the Israeli barracks were targeted. This was followed by increased Israeli reconnaissance flights over western and central southern sectors. At 8:00 AM, Hezbollah claimed that they targeted the headquarters of the 91st Division at the Branit barracks with Burkan missiles.On the other hand, Israeli Channel 12 stated that “four rockets were fired from Lebanon and landed in an open area in West Galilee, with no injuries reported.” Tensions escalated on Tuesday when Israel killed two Hezbollah commanders in Ain Baal and Chehabiyeh in the Tyre region.

Hezbollah’s attack on Israeli military command center injures 14
NAJIA HOUSSARI/Arab News/April 17, 2024
BEIRUT: The Iran-backed Hezbollah launched on Wednesday “a combined attack with guided missiles and explosive drones on a military reconnaissance command center in Arab Al-Aramshe,” as it targeted the Israeli army south of the border with Lebanon. The group claimed responsibility for the operation, saying that “it is in response to the killing of several resistance fighters in Ain Baal and Shehabiya in southern Lebanon.” Israeli media outlets announced that “a kamikaze drone struck an Israeli army gathering in Arab Al-Aramshe, western Galilee, resulting in six casualties, at least.” They added: “An Israeli army helicopter was hit while rescuing the injured in Arab Al-Aramshe.”The Galilee Medical Center in Nahariya said that it had received 14 injured people. Hezbollah has adopted new tactics of late. According to a security source, these “were seen last week, when it (Hezbollah) detonated explosive devices targeting Israeli soldiers on the border, injuring four Golani Brigade members.” The source added that Hezbollah “has taken the confrontations to another level by directly targeting Israeli soldiers.” Israeli forces launched immediate retaliation by bombing and targeting phosphorus bombs on the border area. This region included the outskirts of Rachaya Al-Fekhar, Fardis, Al-Habbariyeh, Alma Al-Shaab, Dhahira, Marwahin, and Yarin, as well as the city of Nabatieh, where a house belonging to the Sayyed family was destroyed. No casualties were reported in the incidents, but the border region has witnessed the Israeli military’s dramatic targeting and killing of two key figures. Hezbollah is mourning the death of Ismail Youssef Baz, a senior commander of the organization, while the Amal Movement — an ally of Hezbollah — has been coming to terms with the death of Hussein Qasim Karsht. Israeli media reported that Baz, who was killed in his car following a drone attack, was “the commander of Hezbollah’s coastal sector.”It added: “He was working on promoting and planning the launching of rockets and anti-tank missiles toward Israel from the Lebanese coastline. During this ongoing war, he organized and planned to carry out various plans against Israel.”

Presidential Election: ‘Failure’ for National Moderation, ‘Stalemate’ for Quintet
This Is Beirut/April 17/2024 
Walid Baarini, a member of the National Moderation parliamentary bloc, lamented his party’s setback on Wednesday. In a radio interview, he disclosed that their bloc was “on the brink of declaring the failure of their initiative” aimed at resolving the presidential deadlock. In the weeks leading up to Ramadan, the bloc embarked on a tour of the main political parties in Parliament, seeking common ground for an initiative to spur informal discussions on the presidential election. The goal was to persuade them to engage in talks before urging Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri to convene an electoral session with successive rounds until a president was elected. The initiative saw positive reactions from several political leaders, such as the Lebanese Forces and the Kataeb, which supported it and remained optimistic despite their skepticism of its success. This doubt was solidified when Hezbollah hardened its stance. The pro-Iranian party conveyed to a delegation from the Moderation bloc that any dialogue on the presidential elections, formal or otherwise, should be presided over by Nabih Berri. This proposition was rebuffed by the opposition, as they maintain that the Speaker of Parliament’s role is simply to convene a parliamentary session to elect a president, strictly in accordance with the Constitution. Baarini acknowledged that the failure of the Moderation initiative was attributed to “the profound divisions among the political forces.” He believed that even the Quintet, comprising the United States, France, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Qatar, which renewed its efforts to resolve the presidential deadlock post-Fitr, was “at a stalemate.”He hinted at differences within the Quintet regarding approaches to the presidential election, without delving into specifics. Baarini’s remarks come at a time when Quintet ambassadors have resumed consultations with various political forces. On Tuesday, they convened at the residence of the Egyptian Ambassador, Alaa Moussa, meeting with representatives of the National Consensus, Renewal, Change and Tachnag parliamentary blocs. Today, they are expected to visit Kataeb leader Samy Gemayel.

Quintet ambassadors meet Franjieh, Gemayel as they resume presidential mission
Naharnet/April 17/2024
The ambassadors of the five-nation group for Lebanon met Wednesday Marada leader Suleiman Franjieh in Bnashii and Kataeb leader Sami Gemayel in Bekfaya, as they resumed their efforts to end the presidential impasse in Lebanon.
The quintet's ambassadors had held Tuesday a consultative meeting at the residence of the Egyptian envoy and will meet this week with several parliamentary blocs. Crisis-hit Lebanon has been without a president since Michel Aoun's term ended in October 2022, with neither of the two main blocs -- Hezbollah and its opponents -- having the majority required to elect one. The international community and the five-nation group have long urged Lebanese leaders to end months of political wrangling and stem the financial meltdown. Egyptian Ambassador Alaa Moussa told al-Joumhouria newspaper, in remarks published Wednesday, that the quintet is less interested in the details than it is in the bigger picture. He said the ambassadors do not give great importance to details, such as how the blocs will meet to discuss the name of a president, who will chair the meeting and whether it would be called "a dialogue" or "consultations". "We are looking for ways to reach an agreement on the broad lines," he said. After he met with Gemayel Wednesday, Moussa described the meeting as "constructive". He said the quintet is trying "to build bridges" and "increase trust" between the Lebanese blocs. "The common ground is increasing day after day," Moussa said.

Lebanon says Israeli agents likely killed Hezbollah-linked currency exchanger near Beirut
BEIT MERI, Lebanon (AP)/April 17, 2024
Lebanon’s interior minister alleged Wednesday that the mysterious abduction and killing of a Hezbollah-linked Lebanese currency exchanger in a villa on the edge of a quiet mountain resort town earlier this month was likely the work of Israeli operatives.
The killing of Mohammad Srour, 57, who was sanctioned by the U.S., was like something out of an international spy thriller. Pistols equipped with silencers and gloves were found in a bucket of water and chemicals at the scene, apparently intended to remove fingerprints and other evidence, Interior Minister Bassam Mawlawi said in an interview with The Associated Press. Thousand of dollars in cash were left scattered around Srour’s body, as if to dispel any speculation that robbery was the motive. “Lebanese security agencies have suspicion or accusations that Mossad was behind this operation,” Mawlawi said, referring to the Israeli spy agency. “The way the crime was carried out led to this suspicion.”
He provided no specific evidence for his allegations. Mawlawi said the investigation is still ongoing and once it's over the results will be made public and referred to judicial authorities. The Israeli prime minister’s office, which oversees Mossad, did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The suspicion by Lebanon’s security agencies that the crime could be the work of Israeli agents comes at a time when Lebanon’s southern border region has been rocked by ongoing clashes between militants of the Hamas-allied Hezbollah group and Israeli troops.
The U.S. Treasury sanctioned Srour in 2019 over his alleged money transfers from Iran through Hezbollah to the Palestinian militant group Hamas in the Gaza Strip. “Mohammad Srour’s activity in money exchange is known, as are the transfers of money from which side to which side,” Mawlawi said. Srour’s killing earlier this month, came as U.S. and Israeli officials have been trying to crack down on transfers of funds to Hamas. The push has intensified following the Oct. 7 Hamas-led attack on southern Israel that triggered the devastating war in Gaza and its ripple effects around the region.
Last month, a senior U.S. Treasury official visiting Beirut pressed Lebanese authorities to prevent funds from being funneled to Hamas through the tiny country. Jesse Baker, deputy assistant secretary of the Treasury for Asia and the Middle East in the Office of Terrorist Financing and Financial Crimes, met with top Lebanese political and financial officials.
Israel's military said it has killed a number of money exchangers in Gaza for allegedly funding Hamas. Srour’s killing was clearly planned in advance. Three Lebanese judicial officials familiar with the investigation told the AP that a man posing as a customer had contacted Srour from abroad and asked him to deliver a cash transfer to a woman in the mountain resort of Beit Meri. The officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the investigation is ongoing, said Srour first went with his nephew and left after handing the woman the money. He was contacted by the same person with another request a day after his first visit, the officials said. This time he went alone, after which his family lost contact with him. Mawlawi said the cellular the woman used to contact Srour was only activated to contact him. He said the perpetrators had first tried to rent an apartment in Beirut’s southeastern suburb of Hazmieh, a detail that has not been previously reported, but later cancelled, apparently because “they did not find (the apartment) suitable to carry out the operation."Mawlawi said the killers then shifted to the quiet town of Beit Meri, famous for its posh homes with red-brick roofs, sprawling forest and Roman-era archaeological site, where they rented a three-story villa on the edge of the town using fake Lebanese identity cards. The country’s General Security Directorate is looking into the identities of people who entered and left the country around the period of the killing, he said. Srour went missing on April 3 in Beit Meri, and his body was found a week later in the villa. Mawlawi said investigators found “a large number of bullet” wounds in different parts of his body, including his arms and legs. He was reportedly handcuffed. The villa is located on a quiet side street lush with trees.
“We did not hear anything,” said Christian Francis who lives across the street from the villa where Srour was killed. He added that most people have dogs in the highly secured area where municipal police have a checkpoint nearby and the Lebanese army has a post few hundred meters (yards) away. Beit Meri’s mayor, Roy Abou Chedid, told the AP that the apartment was rented in late February to an unknown person for one year for $48,000. He added that the family that owns the villa did not register the rental contract at the municipality but had paid its municipal taxes on time in November. “The operation was carried out in a way that is more than professional,” Abou Chedid said, adding that the neighbors did not suspect anything and it took security agencies some time to locate which house Srour’s body was in. A Hezbollah spokesperson declined to comment on the killing citing the ongoing investigation. The spokesperson refused to say whether Srour was a Hezbollah member but said that he worked in the past for the al-Qard al-Hasan Association, the financial arm of the Iran-backed group. Israel has a long history of targeted killings in Lebanon, including drone strikes that have killed high-ranking Hezbollah commanders over the past six months. At least 260 Hezbollah members have been killed by Israel in that period. The U.S. has accused Srour of transferring tens of millions of dollars annually from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to Hamas’ military wing, the Qassam Brigades, alleging that starting in 2014, Srour “was identified as in charge of all money transfers” from the IRGC to the Qassam Brigades. Srour’s family members have not given media interviews since his body was found but said in a televised statement that all his financial transactions were transparent and he simply worked in currency exchange. They urged security agencies to swiftly find the perpetrators. During Srour’s funeral in his hometown of Labweh in northeast Lebanon, a Hezbollah flag was flown over his coffin and scores of men and women chanted “death to America and death to Israel” as they marched toward the cemetery.

Amal-LF ‘War of Words’ over Municipal Elections
This is Beirut/April 17/2024
A controversy pits Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri’s Amal Movement against the Lebanese Forces over upcoming municipal elections, which the Amal-Hezbollah duo wishes to postpone, much to the LF’s dismay. In a statement issued by their information department on Wednesday, the Lebanese Forces strongly reacted to remarks made the day before by Berri against their leader, Samir Geagea, whom he practically accused of working to partition Lebanon, simply because he advocated for holding the municipal elections and proposed that the election be held in South Lebanon once a ceasefire is established. Berri stated in an interview given on Tuesday to Al-Jadeed channel, “Geagea must understand that I have no intention of separating South Lebanon from the rest of Lebanon,” before accusing him of seeking to establish a federal system in Lebanon. For the LF, Nabih Berri “is only throwing dust in the eyes.” “Who wants to tear South Lebanon away from the rest of Lebanon? Where did you read that?” asked the LF, which recalled that “in 1998, municipal elections were held for the first time after the war throughout Lebanon, except in the southern part of the country, which was under Israeli occupation.” “Elections were later held in that region in September 2001. Does this mean that there was at the time a decision to tear the south away from the rest of the country? Who was in power at the time? The head of the LF was in prison. Also, the remarks attributed (to Samir Geagea) are nothing but a smokescreen,” according to the statement. The LF also cited the example of Israeli municipal elections, “which were held on February 27 despite the war, except in the border areas of Lebanon and Gaza.” “This is the logic applied by states and not that of obstruction,” continued the statement, which thus referred to the obstruction of the presidential election by the Hezbollah-Amal duopoly. The LF also rejected Berri’s accusations that Samir Geagea seeks to establish a federal system in Lebanon. “Until further notice, freedom of expression is preserved in Lebanon. As for questions related to federalism or the development of the Lebanese system, they should be discussed among all Lebanese, as Geagea has often repeated,” emphasized the party’s information department. A response that apparently displeased the Amal movement and the Speaker of the House, given the speed with which MP Ali Hassan Khalil, Berri’s right-hand man, reacted to the LF’s statement.

Berri tells Geagea municipal vote 'not possible' without south
Naharnet/April 17/2024
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri said that municipal elections will not happen without including the south where Israel and Hezbollah have been exchanging daily cross-border fire. "Geagea has to understand that I will not separate the south from Lebanon," Berri said in response to Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea who called Tuesday for timely municipal elections, despite the daily clashes in south Lebanon. Geagea said that the south can be excluded, accusing Hezbollah and its allies of obstructing the municipal elections. Berri warned against "federalism" in Geagea's statement and said "the municipal vote will not be held without the south." In April last year, Lebanese MPs voted to extend the terms of municipal councils and other local officials for a year."Anyone who contributes to a third extension of the terms of municipalities would be committing an additional crime against Lebanon and the Lebanese people", Geagea said.

Parliament to discuss municipal vote postponement on April 25
Naharnet/April 17/2024
Speaker Nabih Berri on Wednesday took a decision to schedule a legislative session for April 25 to decide on a draft law calling for the postponement of this year’s municipal elections, Deputy Speaker Elias Bou Saab said after a meeting for the Parliament Bureau. “I had a viewpoint that we can begin holding the municipal elections in the areas in which we can do that, but there is another viewpoint that says that we are in a state of war and that the Israeli enemy is sparing no areas in the south and the Bekaa,” Bou Saab said. Bou Saab also said that there are concerns regarding the municipal council of Beirut, seeing as the lack of political consensus might lead to a new council in which equal power-sharing between Christians and Muslims is not respected. “It is necessary to address the situation of Beirut’s municipality,” Bou Saab stressed. The current municipal elections law does not stipulate a sectarian distribution of seats and a political agreement among the major political forces was behind preserving equal power-sharing in the capital in the previous electoral rounds.

Bassil says FPM defeated 'conspiracy of eliminating it'
Naharnet/April 17/2024
Free Patriotic Movement chief Jebran Bassil has said that the FPM has defeated a “conspiracy” aimed at “eliminating” it, after its candidate was elected as the head of the Order of Engineers and Architects. “In 2017, we were electorally betrayed at the Order of Engineers and we lost with a difference of 21 votes. This was the same betrayal that the FPN and (former) President (Michel) Aoun faced after the Maarab Agreement, with the coup that took place against the presidential tenure and the attacks on it in the government and on the streets,” Bassil added. “The government and Saad Hariri faced the same betrayal -- three betrayals in one year from the same person whose history is full of backstabbing and coups,” Bassil went on to say, apparently referring to Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea.

Lebanon Likely to Postpone Municipal Elections for 3rd Time amid Political Division
Beirut: Nazeer Rida/Asharq Al-Awsat/April 17/2024
The Lebanese Parliament is scheduled to convene next week to discuss the postponement of the municipal elections for the third time in a row. The term of the municipal and elective councils in Lebanon ended for the first time in 2022. The elections were postponed for a year to coincide with the parliamentary elections. But in 2023, they were delayed again for another year by a parliamentary decision. As the extended term ends on May 30, political figures underlined the need to hold the elections across the country, with the exception of three governorates out of seven, namely the South, Nabatieh and Baalbek-Hermel, “for security reasons related to the Israeli war in the South.”The head of Parliament’s Defense, Interior and Municipal Affairs, MP Jihad Al-Samad, said he submitted a draft-law to Parliament that would extend the mandate of the municipal and elective councils for another year, noting in remarks to Asharq Al-Awsat that the proposal will be in the agenda of the session that is expected to be held next week. “During the month of Ramadan, we held a session of the Defense and Interior Committee in the presence of Interior Minister Bassam Mawlawi, and there were two opinions; The first calls for holding elections, excluding the three governorates, and the second calls for postponing them in light of the existing circumstances,” Al-Samad said. Although the government says it is prepared to organize the vote, “the first indication of its lack of seriousness was not including financial allocations for holding the elections in the 2024 budget.”The Interior Ministry announced last week that Mawlawi issued a decree to invite municipal electoral bodies in the districts of Mount Lebanon Governorate to elect members of municipal councils and mukhtars on May 12, 2024. Political parties voiced their objection to postponing the elections. The head of the Lebanese Forces Party, Samir Geagea, described such decision as “an additional crime against Lebanon and the Lebanese.” Geagea addressed the “axis of resistance and its allies” by saying: “After you deprived the Lebanese of an actual state, and after you took them to hell, and you disrupted the presidential elections, today you are working hard to deprive them of local authorities.” Geagea called on the Free Patriotic Movement, which is headed by MP Gebran Bassil, “not to participate in this crime, and not to attend the expected session, in order to force the government to organize municipal elections in all Lebanese regions except those witnessing military operations.” The Amal Movement, Hezbollah, and the Progressive Socialist Party, in particular, support postponing the elections, while mainly the Lebanese Forces and the Kataeb party oppose it.

Israeli jamming operation causes disruption to GPS, TV, satellite channels, and cell communications in southern Lebanon: NNA
LBCI/April 17/2024
According to the National News Agency, there is an Israeli jamming operation in southern Lebanon, especially in the Tyre region, that is causing disturbances to GPS devices, TV, and satellite channels, as well as cell phone communications.
Additionally, Israeli reconnaissance aircraft are frequently flying over Tyre and nearby villages.

MEA reschedules Dubai flight due to weather conditions - statement
LBCI/April 17/2024
Middle East Airlines announced in a statement that it rescheduled its flight to Dubai, ME430/431. "Initially scheduled for departure tonight at 9:00 PM, the flight is rescheduled to depart tomorrow, April 18, 2024, under the flight number ME1430/1431," said the statement. This comes as a result of weather-related issues and in response to the ongoing operations' suspension at Dubai International Airport.

Army: Azzouniyeh Crime Suspects Arrested
This is Beirut/April 17/2024
The Army has arrested suspects in the killing of Yasser al-Koukash, a resident of the mountain village of Azzouniyeh in the Aley district, who was found dead and tied up in his apartment after it was robbed. In a press release issued on Wednesday, the army said, in a follow up on the crime investigation, that “it has arrested individuals suspected of being involved in the crime, two of whom have confessed their part in the homicide.”The suspects were not identified in the press release, which stressed that “the army will continue the investigation of the crime under the supervision of the competent judiciary, and is working to arrest the rest of those involved.” Koukash was killed on Tuesday after three assailants “tied him up and robbed his apartment.” The suspects are reportedly Syrian nationals.

New Attempt to Smuggle Syrians Into Lebanon Foiled
This Is Beirut/April 17, 2024
A ship transporting Syrian families crossed Lebanese territorial waters on Wednesday, landing near the port of Mina, in Tripoli. Passengers jumped into the water and swam ashore. According to some sources, the boat, which was bound for Cyprus, was denied entry by Cypriot authorities and redirected to Lebanon. The continuous influx of Syrian migrants is a growing concern for both Lebanon and Cyprus. Both countries have urged the United Nations to find a comprehensive and lasting solution to this issue.

Mount Lebanon Land Registry: From Total Closing to Partial Reopening
Christiane Tager/This is Beirut/April 17/2024
Mount Lebanon’s land registry offices have been closed for a year and a half, resulting in over 50,000 pending paperwork. On January 22nd, at the request of the caretaker Minister of Finance, Youssef Khalil, activities partially resumed in these offices. This is Beirut provides an update. Mount Lebanon’s land registry offices have been closed since October 2022, resulting in over 50,000 pending property registration and other types of formalities. According to the Chairman of the parliamentary Finance and Budget Committee, Ibrahim Kanaan, this represents nearly 10 trillion Lebanese pounds of missed tax revenue for the public treasury. He based his numbers on the revenues of 2022, which had reached, until October, 507 billion Lebanese pounds based on an exchange rate of 1,500 Lebanese pounds per dollar. As per the 2024 budget, land registry revenues are estimated at 36 trillion Lebanese pounds, accounting for 15% of tax revenues. Nassib Ghobril, chief economist of Byblos Bank, estimates that losses in land registry services amount to $1.55 million per day, based on an exchange rate of 89,500 Lebanese pounds.
Completing Outstanding Paperwork
The land registry and property administration offices have reopened on January 22, following a request from the caretaker Minister of Finance, Youssef Khalil. Since then, they have only been processing the backlog of requests and transactions that have accumulated over the past months. No new formalities or requests are currently being accepted. Sources close to the Ministry of Finance, which oversees these operations, told This is Beirut that the backlog of formalities is “quite significant,” adding that “the exact date for accepting new formalities hasn’t been confirmed yet,” especially as processing pending formalities needs to be completed first. According to the aforementioned sources, progress is being made, with “5,177 formalities – property deeds and real estate certificates – already processed.” The same sources stated that “once this step is over with, new formalities and requests will be accepted.” The starting date for accepting these formalities will be announced in due course. However, the offices of the Metn will not resume normal operations for another few weeks. The land registry offices in Mount Lebanon have already delivered three sets of prepared property titles to the relevant parties or their representatives, following a predetermined distribution process. Usually, paperwork is processed on Fridays, but due to the Good Friday and the Eid al-Fitr holidays – which extended from Wednesday, April 10th to Saturday, April 13th – no distributions were done according to these sources. However, a set of formalities will be handed out this upcoming Friday, April 19th. It should be clarified that the land registry services in Mount Lebanon have been closed since October 2022, following legal actions taken against 124 employees from these services on corruption charges stemming from allegations of bribery. The Mount Lebanon land registry services include those of Baabda, Aley, Metn, Chouf, Jounieh and Jbeil.

Lebanon’s fragility highlighted ahead of civil war anniversary
Mohamed Chebaro/Arab News/April 17, 2024
With all the clouds of instability, war and direct and indirect escalatory confrontations gathering above the Middle East, Saturday’s 49th anniversary of the outbreak of Lebanon’s civil war passed unnoticed. This is despite the country’s permanent precariousness, which puts it at the mercy of any winds or storms, whether they blow domestically or are linked to the Palestinian crisis, the Syrian crisis or any crisis linked to the agenda of the so-called axis of resistance formed and controlled by Iran.
Two killings last week could summarize this precariousness, ironically falling as they did just days before the anniversary of the start of Lebanon’s bloody civil war — April 13, 1975 — which all Lebanese would wish to forget. What these events point to is that Lebanon as a state continues to teeter on the brink. And many of its people, the regional powers and international community have long since resigned themselves to accepting its status: as a nation often just a step away from becoming a failed state.
But nobody should make the mistake of ignoring this small, perennially teetering country, as its complete collapse would no doubt reverberate and impact its immediate neighbors, as well as many other countries, such as those on the European shores of the Mediterranean, should droves of Syrian, Palestinians and dispossessed Lebanese decide to take matters into their own hands and seek a better life elsewhere. They could even be pushed into doing so by malicious actors, with weaponized migration waves, as witnessed elsewhere in the world, aiming to disrupt and pressure Western nations.
Lebanon’s complete collapse would no doubt reverberate and impact its immediate neighbors, as well as many other countries. One day before the anniversary, thousands of Lebanese gathered in the Christian heartland of the north to mourn a Christian political official who was slain earlier in the week. The authorities said he was killed by a Syrian gang in a carjacking incident, but many were not convinced by this official version of events. Although Hezbollah’s chief denied that his party had anything to do with the killing, the Lebanese Forces — the party to which the slain Christian leader belonged — said that it considered his death a “political assassination until proven otherwise.” It blamed his death on the Lebanese state’s failure and “illegal weapons,” a veiled reference to Hezbollah.
Iran-backed Hezbollah is the only party in Lebanon that has kept its weapons arsenal since the end of the 1975-1990 civil war and the implementation of the Taif Agreement brokered by Saudi Arabia. Through Syrian and Iranian-backed political and violent maneuvering, Hezbollah gradually became the party that wielded the most influence over the country’s political, social and economic life. And since Israel’s war on Gaza began on Oct. 7, Hezbollah has traded near-daily cross-border fire with Israeli forces — actions opposed by the majority of Lebanese, especially the Lebanese Forces.
Also last week, a Lebanese man under US sanctions for allegedly funneling money from Iran to Hamas was killed just outside Beirut. The slain man, Mohammed Sarur, served as a middleman between the Quds Force and Hamas and had worked with Hezbollah operatives to ensure funds were provided to Hamas’ armed wing, according to the US Treasury Department. Lebanese security sources stated that Sarur was shot five times and an undisclosed sum of cash was found in his possession, which the killers did not touch.
These two events, though different in nature, were both broad daylight assassinations and were not the work of petty criminals, whether from Syria or elsewhere. They point to the complex security landscape in Lebanon and the fact that such incidents could tip the country toward renewed communal strife.
What lurks beneath the surface are adversities that could befall the nation if no remedies are urgently found
Attention is needed so that things do not become even worse in the country, if such a thing is still possible. Lebanon has been without an elected president for a year and a half. Its caretaker government is next to idle, as it does not have the will, the funds or the constitutional mandate to take reformist steps, which are seen as essential to receiving an International Monetary Fund lifeline, as its discredited political elite fail to put in the work needed to rescue the country’s future.
Since October 2019, Lebanon’s banking system has been marginalized after it used people’s deposits to fund its day-to-day financing. Capital control was applied to depositors to prevent the banking institutions from going bankrupt. The national currency, meanwhile, has lost nearly 90 percent of its value.
One of the world’s largest explosions hit Beirut port in 2020 and the culprits remain at large, amid a divided, politicized judicial system that was once independent. And as 80 percent of Lebanese find themselves living below the poverty line, as per World Bank figures, the country’s services are starved and close to caving under the pressure of close to a million registered Syrian refugees and more than half a million long-term Palestinian refugees.
And as if all that were not enough, visitors to Lebanon could hardly fail to notice the great void on the political and security levels while, to a great extent, the country’s internal security enjoys a bizarre stability that is difficult to fathom. Last week’s incidents were most probably political and remain an anomaly. But what lurks beneath the surface are adversities that could befall the nation if no remedies are urgently found. Nearly 50 years since the civil war broke out, communal coexistence in Lebanon remains fragile and could be malignantly invested into. Previously, it was the Palestinian presence that irked sections of Lebanese society, nowadays it is the presence of Syrians, refugees and non-refugees alike. Who knows, tomorrow an extremist group might invest in the many fertile grounds for discord that exist among Lebanon’s despairing communities. Since the start of the Gaza war six months ago, the Lebanese have been wondering whether this neighboring conflict will engulf the south of the country. The fear remains that Lebanese divisions could also create many scenarios that might tip the fragile peace and stability of the country over the edge, such as was witnessed last week.
**Mohamed Chebaro is a British-Lebanese journalist with more than 25 years’ experience covering war, terrorism, defense, current affairs and diplomacy. He is also a media consultant and trainer.

Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on April 17-18/2024
Father of boy accused of stabbing 2 Sydney clerics saw no signs of extremism, Muslim leader says
SYDNEY (AP)/Wed, April 17, 2024
The father of a boy accused of stabbing two Christian clerics in Australia saw no signs of his son’s extremism, a Muslim community leader said on Wednesday as police began arresting suspected rioters who besieged a Sydney church demanding revenge.
The 16-year-old boy spoke in Arabic about the Prophet Muhammad after he stabbed Bishop Mar Mari Emmanuel and the Rev. Isaac Royel during a church service on Monday night that was being streamed online. Neither cleric sustained life-threatening injuries. The Orthodox Assyrian congregation overpowered the boy and he remained in an undisclosed hospital on Wednesday under police guard. He sustained severe hand wounds in the struggle. Lebanese Muslim Association secretary Gamel Kheir, an advocate for Sydney’s largest Muslim community, said he spent two hours with the boy’s distraught father at the family home soon after the attack. The family has since left their home for fear of retaliation. “He was in shock,” Kheir said of the father, who has not been identified. “He was not aware of any signs of becoming more extreme other than the fact that he was becoming more disobedient to his father. But that was about it. He didn’t see any tell-tale signs, so to speak,” Kheir added.
Kheir is among several community leaders who have accused police of unnecessarily raising community tensions with a premature declaration on Tuesday that the attack at Christ the Good Shepherd Church fit the definition of a terrorist act under New South Wales state law. “I’m concerned that we’ve rushed to a pre-judgment of a 16-year-old child,” Kheir said. “He used the language of religion, we’re not debating that at all. In a sense that he targeted another religion, that’s not debatable,” Kheir said.
“What’s debatable is what mental state was this child in? Was he of a sane mind to even make such a rational call? All we’re saying is surely there was time for the police to do a more thorough investigation and a review before they labelled it a terrorist act,” Kheir added.
New South Wales Police Commissioner Karen Webb on Wednesday stood by her declaration of a terrorist incident as defined by the Terrorism (Police Powers) Act 2002. The act gives police expanded powers to stop and search people, premises and vehicles without a warrant and to detain suspects in response to a terrorist attack or an imminent threat of an attack. The church attack met the act’s criteria of having a political, religious or ideological motivation and was intended to cause intimidation, she said. “I was satisfied based on the information that was provided very early Tuesday morning that it met that criteria and I made that declaration without any hesitation,” Webb said. She said whether the boy would be charged with terrorism offenses was a separate consideration and would depend on the results of the police investigation.
According to media reports, the boy had been convicted in January of a range of offenses including possession of a switchblade knife, being armed with a weapon with an intention to commit an indictable offense, stalking, intimidation and damaging property. He was released from court on a good behavior bond.
He had also been expelled from school for bringing a knife to class, Sydney's The Daily Telegraph newspaper reported. Police are also investigating the conduct of 600 people who converged on the church on Monday night and demanded police hand over the boy, who was temporarily barricaded inside for his own safety. The crowd hurled bricks, bottles and fence boards at police. Two police officers were hospitalized and several police vehicles were damaged. Webb said police were attempting to identify perpetrators of crimes during the riot from various sources of video and from fingerprints left on police cars. She expected arrests to be made as early as Wednesday. “Not all those people there were rioting against the police, but those people who were, they can expect to be identified and arrested and put before the courts,” Webb said. Police later announced a suspected rioter had been arrested at his Sydney home on Wednesday. The 19-year-old man had been taken from his home to a police station but had yet to be charged, a police statement said. The Lebanese Muslim Association runs Australia’s largest mosque in the Sydney suburb of Lakemba. Security has been elevated at that mosque and several others since Monday when fire bombing threats were made. Security has also been increased at shopping malls around Australia after a lone assailant stabbed six people to death at Sydney’s Westfield Bondi Junction mall on Saturday. The rampage ended when the 40-year-old assailant, who had a history of mental illness and no apparent motive, was shot dead by police. No terror declaration was made in that case. Police do not suspect any copycat element to the church attack two days later, Webb said. Westfield Bondi Junction will open its doors on Thursday for the first time since it was shut down on Saturday as a crime scene. Shops will remain closed for what is described as a “community reflection day.”Elliott Rusanow, chief executive of Scentre Group, which owns the mall, said families of victims made private visits on Tuesday. The church attack is only the third to be classified by Australian authorities as a terrorist act since 2018. Two police officers and a bystander were shot dead in an ambush by three Christian fundamentalists near the community of Wieambilla in Queensland state in December 2022. The shooters were later killed by police. In November 2018, a Somalia-born Muslim stabbed three pedestrians in a downtown Melbourne street, killing one, before police shot him dead.

Israel-Hamas talks on Gaza truce 'stalling'
Agence France Presse/April 17/2024
Negotiations between Israel and Hamas to secure a truce in Gaza and a hostage exchange have stalled, Qatar's prime minister said on Wednesday."We are going through a sensitive stage with some stalling, and we are trying as much as possible to address this stalling," Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani told a news conference.

Israel president in Jerusalem talks with British, German FMs
Agence France Presse/April 17/2024
Israeli President Isaac Herzog held talks with the British and German foreign ministers in Jerusalem on Wednesday calling on the international community to work "defiantly" against the Iran. "The whole world must work decisively and defiantly against the threat by the Iranian regime which is seeking to undermine the stability of the whole region," Herzog said in a statement issued by his office. British Foreign Minister David Cameron and his German counterpart Annalena Baerbock are the first Western diplomats to visit Israel since Iran's unprecedented missile and drone attack last weekend.

Israel mulls retaliatory strike on Iran, decision postponed: Axios
LBCI/April 17/2024
Citing US and Israeli sources, the American news website Axios stated that Israel considered executing a "retaliatory" strike against Iran on Monday evening "but eventually decided to postpone it." However, a US official warned via Axios that even a "small Israeli strike" in Iran "would likely trigger an Iranian retaliation."

Israel Reserves ‘Right to Protect Itself’ after Iran Attack, Says Netanyahu
Asharq Al-Awsat/April 17/2024
Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Wednesday his country will decide how to respond to Iran's unprecedented attack as world leaders called for restraint to avoid escalation. The Israeli military has vowed to respond to Iran's missile and drone weekend attack, prompting a diplomatic flurry aiming to calm a region already on the edge due to the Israel-Hamas war raging in Gaza since October 7. Washington and Brussels have pledged to ramp up sanctions against Iran, while British Foreign Secretary David Cameron and his German counterpart Annalena Baerbock became the first Western envoys to visit Israel after the attack. Netanyahu told the visiting ministers that Israel "will reserve the right to protect itself," his office said. The pair offered "all kinds of suggestions and advice" during a meeting, Netanyahu said. "However, I would also like to clarify: we will make our decisions ourselves." For his part, Cameron said that "we're very anxious to avoid escalation and to say to our friends in Israel: It's a time to think with head as well as heart." Baerbock emphasized that "the region must not slide into a situation whose outcome is completely unpredictable." Tehran has vowed to hit back if its arch foe Israel responds to the Saturday attack, which itself was launched in retaliation to a deadly strike on Iran's Damascus consulate building earlier this month.
Iran military parade
As Iran marked its annual Army Day, it showed off a range of its weapons Wednesday, including attack drones and longer-range ballistic missiles, in a military parade in Tehran. President Ebrahim Raisi has warned after the attack that "the slightest act of aggression" by Israel would lead to "a fierce and severe response". In the large-scale assault late Saturday, Iran and allied groups launched over 300 missiles and drones carrying a combined payload of 85 tons at Israel, according to the Israeli army. Damage and casualties were limited as Israel's air defenses intercepted most of them with the help of US, British, French and Jordanian forces. Israel's military chief Herzi Halevi has vowed "a response" to Iran's first ever direct attack, while military spokesman Daniel Hagari stressed that Iran would not get off "scot-free". It remained unclear how and when Israel might strike, and whether it would target Iran directly or attack its interests or allies abroad in places such as Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen. Lebanon's Iran-backed Hezbollah group and Israeli forces have been exchanging near daily cross-border fire with Israel since the Gaza war began. Hezbollah said it launched drones and missiles into Israel on Wednesday, which the army said wounded 14 soldiers, six of whom seriously.
US, EU to toughen sanctions
Israel's top ally the United States has made clear it won't join any attack on Iran, vowing instead to level more sanctions targeting Iran's missile and drone program, its Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Iranian defense ministry. EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said Brussels was also working to expand sanctions against Iran, including its supply of drones and other weapons to Russia and to proxy groups around the Middle East. Germany's Baerbock said that Berlin and Paris were in favor of a European sanctions regime against Iranian drones to be extended to include "missile technologies in Iran's arsenal". Cameron also urged the G7 to adopt new "coordinated sanctions against Iran," ahead of a meeting with counterparts from the Western-led grouping in Italy.
Deadly strikes in Gaza
The sharply heightened Israel-Iran tensions have threatened to overshadow the Gaza war, even as deadly bombardment and combat raged on unabated in the besieged territory. Talks toward a truce and hostage release deal have stalled for now, said Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani, a key mediator, despite months of effort also involving US and Egyptian officials. The Israeli military said Wednesday its aircraft had "struck over 40 terror targets throughout the Gaza Strip" over the past day. When one strike hit the southernmost city of Rafah, where 1.5 million Palestinians are sheltering, Jamalat Ramidan said she "woke up to the sounds of girls shouting 'mama, mama, mama'." As she fled the carnage alongside children, they stumbled over "body parts and corpses scattered all over the place," Ramidan told AFP. Vast areas of Gaza have been devastated by more than six months of war, while its 2.4 million people have suffered under an Israeli siege that has blocked most water, food, medicines and other vital supplies. The war was triggered by an unprecedented attack on Israel by Hamas on October 7 that resulted in the deaths of 1,170 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on Israeli official figures. The militants also took about 250 hostages, of whom Israel estimates 129 remain in Gaza, including 34 who are presumed dead. Israel's devastating retaliatory offensive has killed at least 33,899 people in Gaza, mostly women and children, according to the health ministry in the Hamas-run territory.
Israel rejects famine claims
Israel has faced growing global opposition to the relentless fighting in Gaza, which the United Nations and aid agencies have warned has pushed the north of the territory to the brink of famine.But Netanyahu rejected any claims about famine on Wednesday, saying Israel is doing "above and beyond" what is needed "on the humanitarian issue," his office said. The UN said it would launch an appeal on Wednesday for $2.8 billion to help Palestinians in Gaza and in the occupied West Bank. The bloodiest ever Gaza war has also revived the push for Palestinian statehood as part of a two-state solution to the decades-long conflict. The UN Security Council was preparing to vote Thursday on an Algeria-drafted resolution for full United Nations membership for a Palestinian state, diplomatic sources said. However, the veto-wielding United States has repeatedly expressed opposition to the move.

UN Security Council to vote Friday on Palestinian UN membership
UNITED NATIONS/Michelle Nichols/Reuters/April 17, 2024
The United Nations Security Council is scheduled to vote Friday on a Palestinian request for full U.N. membership, said diplomats, a move that Israel ally the United States is expected to block because it would effectively recognize a Palestinian state. The 15-member council is due to vote at 3 p.m. (1900 GMT) Friday on a draft resolution that recommends to the 193-member U.N. General Assembly that "the State of Palestine be admitted to membership of the United Nations," diplomats said. A council resolution needs at least nine votes in favor and no vetoes by the U.S., Britain, France, Russia or China to pass. Diplomats say the measure could have the support of up to 13 council members, which would force the U.S. to use its veto. Council member Algeria, which put forward the draft resolution, had requested a vote for Thursday afternoon to coincide with a Security Council meeting on the Middle East, which is expected to be attended by several ministers. The United States has said that establishing an independent Palestinian state should happen through direct negotiations between the parties and not at the United Nations. "We do not see that doing a resolution in the Security Council will necessarily get us to a place where we can find ... a two-state solution moving forward," U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Linda Thomas-Greenfield said on Wednesday. The Palestinians are currently a non-member observer state, a de facto recognition of statehood that was granted by the 193-member U.N. General Assembly in 2012. But an application to become a full U.N. member needs to be approved by the Security Council and then at least two-thirds of the General Assembly. The U.N. Security Council has long endorsed a vision of two states living side by side within secure and recognized borders. Palestinians want a state in the West Bank, east Jerusalem and Gaza Strip, all territory captured by Israel in 1967. Little progress has been made on achieving Palestinian statehood since the signing of the Oslo Accords between Israel and the Palestinian Authority in the early 1990s.
The Palestinian push for full U.N. membership comes six months into a war between Israel and Palestinian Hamas militants in Gaza, and as Israel is expanding settlements in the occupied West Bank.

UN agency says staff, other Gaza detainees subjected to ill-treatment
GENEVA (Reuters)/April 17, 2024
The U.N. Palestinian refugee agency (UNRWA) said some of its staff members and other people detained by Israeli forces in Gaza were subjected to ill-treatment, including severe beatings and being forced to strip naked. In a report published on Tuesday, UNRWA said that staff that were detained, in some cases while performing official duties, were "held incommunicado and subjected to the same conditions and ill-treatment as other detainees," which it said included several different forms of abuse. The agency said staff members had said they were subjected to beatings and treatment akin to waterboarding, threats of rape and electrocution, and were forced to strip naked, among other forms of ill-treatment. "UNRWA has made official protests to the Israeli authorities about the reported treatment of Agency staff members while they were in Israeli detention centers," it said. "UNRWA has not received any response to these protests to date." The Israeli military has said it acts according to Israeli and international law and those it arrests get access to food, water, medication and proper clothing. The military and the Israel Prison Service did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the claims in the UNRWA report. The Palestinian Prisoners Society has said Israel refuses to disclose information on the number of people from Gaza it has detained over the past six months, or on where they are being held. UNRWA has documented the release of 1,506 detainees from Gaza, including 43 children and 84 women, by the Israeli authorities through the Kerem Shalom crossing as of April 4. The freed detainees were subjected to "insults and humiliation such as being made to act like animals or getting urinated on, use of loud music and noise, deprivation of water, food, sleep and toilets, denial of the right to pray and prolonged use of tightly locked handcuffs causing open wounds and friction injuries," according to UNRWA. "Detainees were threatened with prolonged detention, injury or the killing of family members if they did not provide requested information," UNRWA said. "In most reported detention incidents, the IDF forced males, including children, to strip down to their underwear. UNRWA also documented at least one occasion where males sheltering in an UNRWA installation were forced to strip naked and were detained while naked."Israel's military operation in Gaza was triggered by Hamas's Oct. 7 attack, which by its tallies killed 1,200 with 253 taken hostage. The subsequent bombardment has killed more than 33,000 Palestinians, according to Palestinian medics, displaced the majority of Gaza's 2.3 million people and caused a grave humanitarian crisis.

UN Security Council to Vote Friday on Palestinian UN Membership
Asharq Al-Awsat/April 17/2024
The United Nations Security Council is scheduled to vote Friday on a Palestinian request for full UN membership, said diplomats, a move that Israel ally the United States is expected to block because it would effectively recognize a Palestinian state. The 15-member council is due to vote at 3 p.m. (1900 GMT) Friday on a draft resolution that recommends to the 193-member UN General Assembly that "the State of Palestine be admitted to membership of the United Nations," diplomats said. A council resolution needs at least nine votes in favor and no vetoes by the US, Britain, France, Russia or China to pass. Diplomats say the measure could have the support of up to 13 council members, which would force the US to use its veto. Council member Algeria, which put forward the draft resolution, had requested a vote for Thursday afternoon to coincide with a Security Council meeting on the Middle East, which is due to be attended by several ministers. The United States has said that establishing an independent Palestinian state should happen through direct negotiations between the parties and not at the United Nations. "We do not see that doing a resolution in the Security Council will necessarily get us to a place where we can find ... a two-state solution moving forward," US Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield said on Wednesday. The Palestinians are currently a non-member observer state, a de facto recognition of statehood that was granted by the 193-member UN General Assembly in 2012. But an application to become a full UN member needs to be approved by the Security Council and then at least two-thirds of the General Assembly.
'PEACE-LOVING STATES'
The UN Security Council has long endorsed a vision of two states living side by side within secure and recognized borders. Palestinians want a state in the West Bank, east Jerusalem and Gaza Strip, all territory captured by Israel in 1967. Little progress has been made on achieving Palestinian statehood since the signing of the Oslo Accords between Israel and the Palestinian Authority in the early 1990s. The Palestinian push for full UN membership comes six months into a war between Israel and Palestinian Hamas fighters in Gaza, and as Israel is expanding settlements in the occupied West Bank. Israel's UN Ambassador Gilad Erdan said earlier this month that "whoever supports recognizing a Palestinian state at such a time not only gives a prize to terror, but also backs unilateral steps which are contradictory to the agreed-upon principle of direct negotiations." A Security Council committee on the admission of new members - made up of all 15 council members - met twice last week to discuss the Palestinian application and agreed to a report on the issue on Tuesday. "Regarding the issue of whether the application met all the criteria for membership ... the Committee was unable to make a unanimous recommendation to the Security Council," the report said, adding that "differing views were expressed." UN membership is open to "peace-loving states" that accept the obligations in the founding UN Charter and are able and willing to carry them out.

Iranian military says it is ready to deal with any Israeli attack
REUTERS/April 17, 2024
DUBAI: Iran said on Wednesday its military was ready to confront any attack by Israel, with the air force saying it was prepared for action. Iran’s navy commander said also that it was escorting Iranian commercial vessels to the Red Sea. Iran carried out its first-ever direct attack on Israel last weekend in retaliation for a suspected Israeli strike on an Iranian diplomatic compound in Damascus on April 1. Israel has said it will hit back and its war cabinet was meeting on Wednesday to discuss options. “Any attack by the Zionist regime (Israel) on our soil will be dealt with a severe response,” Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi said on Wednesday at a parade held for Army Day, state media reported. The commander of the Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force warned at the same event that its warplanes, including Russian-made Sukhoi-24s, were in their “best state of preparedness” to counter any Israeli attack. “We have full readiness in all fields, including our air coverage and bombers, and are prepared for any operation,” Brig. Gen. Amir Vahedi said. A direct attack on Revolutionary Guards bases or nuclear research facilities within Iran is one of the options Israel has to strike back. Targets outside of Iran are also a possibility. Admiral Shahram Irani said the Iran Navy was escorting Iranian commercial ships to the Red Sea, according to the semi-official Tasnim news agency. “The Navy is carrying out a mission to escort Iranian commercial ships to the Red Sea and our Jamaran frigate is present in the Gulf of Aden in this view,” Irani said. Tehran was ready to escort vessels of other countries, he added. The Red Sea has seen significant disruption to Israel-bound shipping due to attacks from Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis. On April 13, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards seized the MSC Aries, a Portuguese-flagged container ship in the Strait of Hormuz which Tehran says is linked to Israel.

Iran shows military might as tensions with Israel soar
Agence France Presse/April 18, 2024
As regional tensions run high, Iran paraded drones, missiles and soldiers on Wednesday to show it is ready for any response from Israel after launching an unprecedented attack on its bitter enemy. The Islamic republic carried out its first-ever direct attack on Israel at the weekend in response to an April 1 air strike on its consulate in Damascus which has been widely blamed on Israel. The operation dubbed Honest Promise "brought down the glory of the Zionist regime (Israel)", President Ebrahim Raisi said at a military base on the outskirts of Tehran. "This operation showed that our armed forces are ready," he said in a speech addressed to the regular army and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Wednesday's parade saw the Iranian armed forces showcase a range of military equipment including drones and long-range ballistic missiles. Among them were multiple versions of the Ababil, Arash and Mohajer drones as well as the Dezful medium-range ballistic missile and S-300 air defence missile system. Raisi on Wednesday reiterated warnings against "the slightest act of aggression" by Israel, saying it would lead to "a fierce and severe response". Israel has vowed to respond to the weekend attack, with military spokesman Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari saying Iran would not get off "scot-free". The Israeli army said most of the projectiles fired by Iran were shot down -- with the help of the United States and other allies -- and that the attack caused only minimal damage. Iran hailed the attack as "successful" and said it "achieved all its objectives" including inflicting damages to the air base and intelligence centre which it says was used by Israel to strike the Damascus consulate.
'Humiliated'
On Wednesday, Iran's air force commander Hamid Vahedi warned Iran's enemies against making a "strategic error". "We are 100 percent ready in all aerial fronts," he was quoted as saying by ISNA news agency. In his speech, Raisi also hit out at countries that had "sought to normalise relations" with Israel. "These countries are now humiliated in front of their own people which constitutes a strategic failure for the regime" of Israel, he said. In 2020, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Morocco normalised relations with Israel as part of the US-brokered Abraham Accords, vehemently criticised by the Palestinians. Egypt and Jordan signed peace accords with Israel in 1979 and 1994, respectively. Iran insists its attack on Israel was limited and carried out in "self-defence" following the strike on its consulate in the Syrian capital. It said it had informed the United States and given a 72-hour warning to neighbouring countries ahead of the attack.Late Tuesday, the United States said it would soon impose fresh sanctions on Iran's missile and drone programme and that it expected its allies and partners to follow with parallel measures. British Foreign Secretary David Cameron has urged the G7 Wednesday to adopt new "coordinated sanctions" against Iran. Asked about fears of a wider regional conflict, Cameron called the situation "very concerning". In Tehran, where daily activity proceeded as normal in the bustling city centre, some showed support for Iran in case of a possible Israeli response. "When it comes to defending our homeland, we are willing to go through anything," said 50-year-old lawyer Hossein. "Our country is currently facing economic sanctions and many people are struggling, but defending our country is stronger than any obstacle." Fershteh, a teacher, was also defiant. "We are not worried about war because we believe that if God wills it to be a war, I will survive."

Jordan says Israeli retaliation for Iran strikes risks wider regional war
REUTERS/April 18, 2024
AMMAN: Jordan’s Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi said on Wednesday an Israeli retaliation against Iranian strikes could bring a real risk of dragging the whole region into a devastating war. In an interview released by state media, Safadi said his country was lobbying major powers against an escalation that would have far-reaching consequences for regional stability and security. “The risks are enormous. That could drag the whole region into war, which would be devastating to us in the region and we’ll have very, very serious implications for the rest of the world including the U.S,” Safadi said. “The situation is too dangerous. The chances of regional explosion are real, and that has got to stop. We’ve got to make sure there’s no further escalation,” he added. Staunch US ally Jordan, with the help of American air defenses and support from the UK and France, shot down most of the Iranian drones and missiles that were flying over the country toward Jerusalem and a wide range of targets in Israel. “Now the pressure should be on Israel not to escalate,” Safadi said, adding Tehran had said it attacked in retaliation for a suspected Israeli airstrike on its embassy compound in Damascus on April 1 and would not go further unless Israel responded. Jordan neighbors Syria and Iraq – both countries where Iranian proxy forces operate – and is next door to Israel and the Israeli-occupied West Bank. “We are in the middle of the fire, so both parties have to understand that we’ll do what we have to do to protect our own, and to prevent this escalation,” Safadi said.Safadi warned that his country would act firmly in the event of another flare-up and that Jordan would not allow “either Iran or Israel to turn the kingdom into a battlefield.”“We will take down any projectiles that threaten our peoples and violate our sovereignty, and pose a threat to Jordanians. And we made this clear to both Israel and Iran,” he said. Iranian drones that came from the direction of Iraq and flew over southern Jordan and the city of Aqaba that were heading to Israel’s Eilat port were also intercepted. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was using the confrontation with Iran to divert attention from Gaza, Safadi said. The Israeli leader should not be allowed to drag “Washington and major Western powers into a war with Iran,” he added.

Israel accused of stepping up work on illegal settlements since start of Gaza war
ARAB NEWS/April 17, 2024
LONDON: Israel’s government has stepped up the building of settlements across East Jerusalem, with over 20 projects involving thousands of housing units advanced since it launched its war on Gaza six months ago, according to planning documents seen by the Guardian. While many government bodies were shuttered or had limited operation following Oct. 7, planning authorities continued to advance plans at “unprecedented speed,” Sari Kronish, from the Israeli rights organization Bimkom — Planners for Planning Rights, told the Guardian. “The fast-tracking of these plans has been unparalleled in the last six months,” Kronish added. Significantly, two new settlements were approved in East Jerusalem, the first such approvals in over a decade. One development involves the expansion of Kidmat Zion, a high-security settlement in the Palestinian neighborhood of Ras Al-Amud, which was decided on two days after the Oct. 7 attacks. In the Palestinian community of Beit Safafa, encircled by these developments, work has also resumed on the Givat Hamatos and new Givat Shaked projects. Givat Hamatos was shut down for a decade after international opposition. Work resumed in 2020, and last month the site was bustling with workers, heavy machinery, and trucks. Givat Shaked, which received full planning permission on Jan. 4, will be built on the northwestern side of Beit Safafa. It entails high-rise buildings with 700 housing units on the only land in Beit Safafa where the 17,000-strong Muslim majority could expand to accommodate young people. Palestinians are unable to build larger homes in the neighborhood, as well as elsewhere, due to bureaucratic and other restrictions. The Givat Shaked project has faced significant opposition due to potential threats to the Oslo peace accords, leading to international criticism and a temporary halt urged by the US. Despite this, the project gained momentum two years ago, endorsed by then Interior Minister Ayelet Shaked. He rejected any claims of Palestinian control over Jerusalem’s east, and said it was “unthinkable to prevent development and construction in this area, or anywhere else in the city.”“Our family has been here for 250 years … Now I have a black hole in my heart because I can’t see how my children and grandchildren can spend their lives here,” Ahmed Salman, the chair of Beit Safafa’s community council, told the Guardian.
“We had good relations with the municipality once, but not in recent years. Since the war, life goes on, but they approved the plan and dismissed all our objections. We are appealing, but I’m not optimistic,” the 71-year-old said.
Another contentious project, the Lower Aqueduct, was fully approved on Dec. 29. This settlement is planned adjacent to a Palestinian neighborhood, further complicating the demographic and political landscape.
“Many of the settlement plans are strategically designated for areas along the southern perimeter of East Jerusalem,” Amy Cohen, of Israeli human rights NGO Ir Amim, said. Cohen added: “If constructed, they would further fracture the Palestinian space … and create a ‘sealing-off’ effect of East Jerusalem from Bethlehem and the southern West Bank. “Such moves directly undermine conditions necessary for a viable independent Palestinian state with a contiguous capital in East Jerusalem. All this while bringing planning and building for Palestinians in the city to a complete stop.” The surge in settlement activity aligns with the goals of the Israeli settler movement, supported by Israel’s current government, which is described by a UN report as the most right-wing in the nation’s history. Palestinians account for roughly 40 percent of Jerusalem’s population of around 1 million. Successive Israeli governments have sought to maintain the city’s Jewish majority. Israel captured East Jerusalem from Jordan during the 1967 Six-Day War and later annexed it in a move that was not recognized by the majority of the international community. International law prohibits the permanent settlement of militarily occupied territory. This expansion challenges the possibility of a Palestinian state and strains Israel’s relations with the international community, including the Biden administration.

German-Iranian chamber of commerce speaks out against new sanctions
BERLIN, April 17 (Reuters)/Wed, April 17, 2024
The German-Iranian chamber of commerce spoke out against new sanctions against the Islamic Republic in response to its attack on Israel, according to a letter sent to members and friends of the organization seen by Reuters on Wednesday. "As always, calls for new sanctions come fast, but they serve to mask Europe's lack of influence rather than be part of a solution," the letter dated April 15 said. The "special relationship" that once existed between Germany and Iran has neither been maintained nor cultivated by Berlin, leading to a loss of influence, said the chamber, with the "key players still in Washington and increasingly Beijing."European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said on Tuesday that some member states had asked for sanctions against Iran to be expanded and that the bloc's diplomatic service would begin working on the proposal. He said the proposal would expand a sanctions regime that seeks to curb the supply of Iranian drones to Russia so that it would also include the provision of missiles and could also cover deliveries to Iranian proxies in the Middle East. Bilateral trade between Germany and Iran had fallen significantly last year, with German exports slumping by more than 24% to 1.2 billion euros ($1.28 billion), while imports from Iran decreased by 18% to 247 million euros. ($1 = 0.9410 euros)

Qatar says Gaza ceasefire talks at 'delicate phase'
DUBAI (Reuters)April 17, 2024
Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani said on Wednesday talks on a Gaza ceasefire and a release of hostages are at a "delicate phase"."We are trying as much as possible to address this stumbling block," he added, without giving further details. Qatar's premier condemned what he described as the policy of "collective punishment" still followed by Israel in its war against the enclave's ruling Palestinian Islamist group Hamas and the latest escalation in the Israeli-occupied West Bank. The ceasefire discussions, mediated by Qatar and Egypt, are continuing as a humanitarian crisis devastates Palestinians in Gaza with severe shortages of food, medicine and hospital care. The war was triggered when Hamas burst into southern Israel from Gaza on Oct. 7, killed 1,200 people and took 253 hostages into the enclave, according to Israeli tallies. Israel has retaliated by pounding Gaza in an air and ground offensive which has killed almost 34,000 Palestinians, according to Gaza health authorities.

UN Agency Says Staff, Other Gaza Detainees Subjected to Ill-Treatment
Asharq Al-Awsat/April 17/2024
The UN Palestinian refugee agency (UNRWA) said some of its staff members and other people detained by Israeli forces in Gaza were subjected to ill-treatment, including severe beatings and being forced to strip naked. In a report published on Tuesday, UNRWA said that staff that were detained, in some cases while performing official duties, were "held incommunicado and subjected to the same conditions and ill-treatment as other detainees," which it said included several different forms of abuse. The agency said staff members had said they were subjected to beatings and treatment akin to waterboarding, threats of rape and electrocution, and were forced to strip naked, among other forms of ill-treatment. "UNRWA has made official protests to the Israeli authorities about the reported treatment of Agency staff members while they were in Israeli detention centers," it said. "UNRWA has not received any response to these protests to date." The Israeli military has said it acts according to Israeli and international law and those it arrests get access to food, water, medication and proper clothing. The military and the Israel Prison Service did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the claims in the UNRWA report. The Palestinian Prisoners Society has said Israel refuses to disclose information on the number of people from Gaza it has detained over the past six months, or on where they are being held. UNRWA has documented the release of 1,506 detainees from Gaza, including 43 children and 84 women, by the Israeli authorities through the Kerem Shalom crossing as of April 4. The freed detainees were subjected to "insults and humiliation such as being made to act like animals or getting urinated on, use of loud music and noise, deprivation of water, food, sleep and toilets, denial of the right to pray and prolonged use of tightly locked handcuffs causing open wounds and friction injuries," according to UNRWA. "Detainees were threatened with prolonged detention, injury or the killing of family members if they did not provide requested information," UNRWA said. "In most reported detention incidents, the IDF forced males, including children, to strip down to their underwear. UNRWA also documented at least one occasion where males sheltering in an UNRWA installation were forced to strip naked and were detained while naked." Israel's military operation in Gaza was triggered by Hamas's Oct. 7 attack, which by its tallies killed 1,200 with 253 taken hostage. The subsequent bombardment has killed more than 33,000 Palestinians, according to Palestinian medics, displaced the majority of Gaza's 2.3 million people and caused a grave humanitarian crisis.

Jordan Thwarts Relentless Iranian Efforts to Target its Security
Asharq Al-Awsat/April 17/2024
Jordanian King Abdullah II affirmed his country’s position on “not allowing Jordan to be a battlefield for any party.” His comments, which came during a meeting on Tuesday with figures from the Mafraq Governorate (70 kilometers northeast of the capital), reflected the same stance that the king conveyed to US President Joe Biden on Sunday. During a telephone call with Biden, King Abdullah stressed that his country will not “be an arena for a regional war,” calling for the need to “immediately stop the escalation in the region,” and saying that any “Israeli escalatory measures will lead to expanding the circle of conflict.”At dawn on Sunday, Fars News Agency quoted a military source as saying that the Iranian “armed forces are carefully monitoring Jordan’s movements during the process of disciplining the Zionist entity... If Jordan participates in any potential actions, it will be the next target.”
The Jordanian Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced on Sunday that it had summoned the Iranian ambassador to Amman and asked his country to “stop insulting and questioning” the kingdom’s positions. Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi said in a televised appearance that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “will try to create a confrontation with Iran to drag the United States and the West into a regional war, so the focus will shift toward Iran, and the world will forget about Gaza.” Meanwhile, Jordanian sources confirmed “sensitive information about persistent Iranian efforts to target security in the kingdom” during the past few months. Those were thwarted and kept secret to avoid causing more tension in the relationship between the two countries, according to the sources. Jordan is aware that Tehran’s intentions are “to nurture security hotspots, which it will use to harass its opponents in the region.” Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat, a political source noted that Iran wants to “destabilize Jordan and it is looking for a foothold that will disturb the kingdom.” Earlier this month, Asharq Al-Awsat reported that pro-Iranian Iraqi militias have sought since Oct. 7 to carry out infiltration operations across the Jordanian border to support the Palestinian resistance. But the Jordanian army was able to thwart many of these attempts, sending “serious threats” through official channels to bomb the Shiite militias that had set up camps in the Trebil area in Iraq, and forcing them to retreat 40 kilometers inside Iraqi territory. “Amman does not trust Tehran” is a summary of the history of the relationship between the two countries, as described by Jordanian politicians and elites. “The more chaos in the region expands... the more Iran is able to negotiate to achieve its interests, in a war it is conducting through its proxies,” said Minister Khaled Al-Kalaldeh.

Joly to Israel: 'Take the win' in thwarting Iran's weekend attack, don't retaliate
The Canadian Press/April 17, 2024
OTTAWA — Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly says she's urging Israel to help de-escalate mounting conflicts in the Middle East by not bombing Iran in retaliation for this weekend's thwarted airstrikes. "We think that it is important that Israel be able to protect itself, and it has done so over the weekend," Joly said Monday on Parliament Hill. On Saturday, Iran launched its first-ever military assault on Israel, with hundreds of drones and missiles Tehran says were aimed at military infrastructure.Joly said she has since spoken with Israel's Foreign Minister Israel Katz to discourage his government from responding with direct strikes against Iran."I've been clear to my counterpart in Israel, please take the win, and make sure that we can work together to bring back peace in the region," she said. "Canada is pushing diplomatically to stop further escalation."
Israel and Iran have been in a proxy war for years, with Israel accusing Tehran of empowering groups like Hezbollah and Hamas to attack Israel. Israel is widely believed to have been behind the April 1 airstrike on Iran's embassy in Syria, which killed senior military officers. International rules that protect diplomatic missions generally view attacks on embassies as targeting the states those buildings represent. Iran retaliated with a series of drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles Saturday and Sunday, the vast majority of which Israel and Jordan managed to intercept. The heightened tensions prompted the opposition Conservatives to once again introduce a motion in Parliament that would list the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, a branch of Iran's army, as a terrorist group. MPs in 2018 voted for a motion to list the group, though the Liberals have resisted following through, saying that it's up to security officials to impartially designate terror groups. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has argued that listing the IRGC in the Criminal Code as a terrorist group would punish Canadians who were drafted into Iran's military by force. Ottawa has instead implemented an entry ban on people who have been members of the group's higher ranks since November 2019. Conservative MP Garnett Genuis asked the Commons on Monday to again call for such a listing. "I hope that after six years of delay, that this government will finally, actually do it," Genuistold the House. The motion would fast-track a private member's bill that would classify IRGC as a terrorist group "at the earliest opportunity following this weekend's events, and in the most efficient way possible," he said. The motion was debated for more than an hour Monday. Joly said the government has already asked Public Safety Canada to explore such a listing and will "continue to put maximum pressure against the Iranian regime." She also said she'll discuss more sanctions on Iran at this week's meeting with her fellow foreign ministers in the G7 bloc of like-minded countries in Italy. "As of now, under my purview, what we can do is quickly designate key individuals that are part of these activities that are criminal activities against Israelis and also against our interests."

EU leaders wanted to talk competitiveness. Middle East tensions and Ukraine top their summit list
BRUSSELS (AP)/Wed, April 17, 2024
European leaders’ discussions at a summit in Brussels were set to focus on the bloc’s competitiveness in the face of increased competition from the United States and China. Tensions in the Middle East and the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine decided otherwise and the 27 leaders will dedicate Wednesday evening talks to foreign affairs. As the unprecedented attack by Iran on Israel ratcheted up regional tensions and raised fears of a wider war, EU leaders will urge “all parties to exercise utmost restraint and refrain from any action that may increase tensions in the region,” according to a draft of their summit conclusions.Following a video meeting of the bloc’s foreign affairs ministers on Tuesday, the EU’s top diplomat Josep Borrell said the EU will also consider further sanctioning Iran. “This may entail expanding the scope of the existing regime targeting Iran’s military support of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine through drones, to include the possibility to sanction Iranian missiles as well as drone deliveries to Iranian proxies in the Middle East,” the European Council said. Leaders from the bloc should also reiterate their call for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza and the release of hostages, “as well as increasing humanitarian aid at scale to Palestinians in need.” Tensions in the region have ramped up since the start of the latest Israel-Hamas war on Oct. 7, when Hamas and Islamic Jihad, two militant groups backed by Iran, carried out a devastating cross-border attack that killed 1,200 people in Israel and kidnapped 250 others. Israel responded with an offensive in Gaza that has caused widespread devastation and killed over 33,800 people, according to local health officials. Russia’s two-year war in Ukraine is also on the agenda, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy expected to address the meeting remotely. He has pleaded with allies for more Patriot missile systems. Since the full-scale invasion began in February 2022, Russia has captured nearly a quarter of Ukraine, which is outnumbered, outgunned and in desperate need of more troops and ammunition, as doubt increases about Western military aid. Zelenskyy repeatedly said Ukraine must bolster its air defenses and replenish its ammunition supplies amid Russian pushes along the front line. EU Council president Charles Michel, who chairs the meeting, insisted in his invitation letter to leaders on “the urgency of intensifying our delivery of military assistance, notably air defense capabilities.” Despite the heavy foreign affairs agenda, leaders will still hold talks on how to bolster the EU’s competitiveness and improve the bloc’s single market on Thursday. Former Italian Prime Minister Enrico Letta has drawn up a report he will present at the summit. “Companies are struggling under the weight of regulation and administrative red tape,” Michel said. We must work towards dismantling these barriers and ensuring a coherent and smart regulatory framework to ensure that our businesses can grow and thrive. Investments in strategic sectors play a vital role in enhancing our competitiveness – in this context, a combination of private and public financing, alongside a reassessment of our approach to state aid, is imperative.”

Saudis, UAE Warn of War Dangers as Israel-Iran Tensions Boil
Bloomberg/Dana Khraiche and Sam Dagher/April 17, 2024
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates called for maximum “self-restraint” in the Middle East to spare the region “from the dangers of war and its dire consequences,” in an unusually frank joint statement Wednesday. The comments came after a call between Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman and UAE President Mohammed Bin Zayed Al Nahyan, as tensions escalate following Iran’s missile and drone strikes on Israel on Saturday night. Never miss an episode. Follow the Big Take podcast oniHeart,Apple Podcasts,Spotify or wherever you listen. Read the transcript.
Israel is weighing a response to what was the first attack on the Jewish state from Iranian soil. On Wednesday, Foreign Minister Israel Katz met his British and German counterparts David Cameron and Annalena Baerbock and reiterated that his country has a right to react to Iran and called for more sanctions on the Islamic Republic’s missile program. Iranian officials have warned that an Israeli counterattack will be met with a “more severe, faster and more immediate blow.” Iran has said its attack on Israel was in response to an airstrike on its consulate in Damascus on April 1 that killed some of its top commanders.
The leaders of Saudi Arabia and the UAE discussed developments in the Middle East and the dangerous repercussions on security and stability, the UAE’s state-run WAM news agency reported. The call was initiated by the Emirati leader, Saudi Arabia’s state-run news agency SPA said. The UAE has formal diplomatic relations with Israel, while Saudi Arabia had been in US-backed talks over the normalization of ties, though those have been complicated by the war in Gaza. The US, Western allies and Arab states have urged Israel to refrain from a response that would engulf the region in a full-blown conflict. The Saudi crown prince also received a phone call from the ruler of Qatar and discussed the military escalation. The intensifying tit-for-tat between Iran and Israel has put the entire region on edge, and Gulf leaders may see this as a moment to put aside differences to confront common threats and challenges. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have clashed in the past over a number of issues, including how to deal with Iran, ending the decade-long war in Yemen and economic and political leadership in the region. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are particularly worried about the situation in Jordan. The government there says it’s caught between an Israeli leadership that it has described as a threat to regional peace, and forces in Iran and countries allied with Tehran determined to exploit the ongoing war in Gaza to expand their influence and reach, including in Jordan itself. Amman has been rattled over the past few weeks by a series of developments. On Sunday, Iran state media accused it of aiding Israel by shooting down some of the missiles and drones launched by Tehran. Jordan retorted that it had to act because some of them flew over its territory.
Tribal Ties
Months of protests outside the Israeli embassy in Amman have grown increasingly militant and pro-Hamas in the past few weeks. And following Israel’s attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, an Iran-backed Iraqi militia leader vowed to flood Jordan with weapons and to march on Israel. These threats triggered calls by the Saudi crown prince and UAE leader to Jordan’s King Abdullah II to reaffirm their commitment to Jordan’s defense and security. Both Saudi Arabia and the UAE, who are bound to Jordan by familial and tribal ties, see the country as pivotal to their own national security and part of their geo-strategic depth. Jordan borders on northwest Saudi Arabia, where Prince Mohammed has launched some of his most ambitious and costly projects linked to his Vision 2030 economic diversification plan. While both have mended diplomatic ties with Iran, they remain extremely wary of Tehran. A report earlier this month by the Riyadh-based International Institute for Iranian Studies said Iran was “seeking a foothold in Jordan” in order to completely “encircle Israel” and “undermine regional actors” like Abu Dhabi and Riyadh. The region’s heightened tensions also fuel concerns about security in its waterways, all of which are vital sea routes for global energy and commercial supplies. An Israel-linked cargo ship that was seized by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in the run-up to Saturday’s attack is still being held by Iran on allegations it was violating maritime regulations. Earlier on Wednesday, Iran’s navy said it would provide a military escort, led by one of its largest warships, for Iranian trade vessels traveling from the Gulf of Aden to the Red Sea.

Iran president to visit Pakistan 'very soon', PM Sharif says
Charlotte Greenfield/Reuters/April 17, 2024
Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi will visit Pakistan "very soon", Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said on Wednesday, as the Muslim neighbours look to mend ties after January's tit-for-tat missile strikes at what they said were militant targets. The strikes had fed concern about wider regional instability after the war between Israel and Hamas erupted on Oct 7. News of the visit comes as the United States and its allies plan fresh sanctions against Iran for its unprecedented attack on Israel on Saturday, while seeking to deter the latter from a major escalation. Sharif's office issued a statement on Raisi's visit following a cabinet meeting, after Pakistan signalled earlier that it could take place. This week broadcaster Geo News said the Iranian president would arrive in Pakistan on April 22, citing sources. Pakistan's foreign office did not respond to a request from Reuters for comment on the report, however. The neighbours have had a history of rocky relations, but the missile strikes were the most serious incidents in years. Swift efforts to lower the temperature subsequently led to assurances that they respected each other's sovereignty and territorial integrity, while vowing to expand security cooperation. Pakistan has previously called on all parties in the Middle East to "exercise utmost restraint and move towards de-escalation". In another sign of warming Middle East ties, Sharif's office added that Saudi Arabia would invest billions of dollars following a visit to Pakistan this week by its foreign minister.

Iran shuts down nuclear facilities over fears of Israel attack
Yahoo News UK/ Wed, April 17, 2024
An Iranian helicopter flies over an anti-aircraft gun at the Natanz uranium enrichment facilities some 200 miles (322 km) south of the capital Tehran, Iran Wednesday March 30, 2005. The central Iranian cities of Natanz and Isfahan house the heart of Iran's nuclear program. The conversion facility in Isfahan reprocesses uranium ore concentrate, known as yellowcake, into uranium hexaflouride gas. The gas is then taken to Natanz and fed into the centrifuges for enrichment. Iran's President Mohammad Khatami is scheduled to visit the Natanz and Isfahan facilities Wednesday, with the head of Iran's An Iranian helicopter flies over an anti-aircraft gun at the Natanz uranium enrichment facilities some 200 miles (322 km) south of the capital Tehran. (Alamy) (Vahid Salemi, Associated Press)
Iran has closed down nuclear facilities in the country amid fears of a retaliatory attack from Israel, according to the United Nations. UN inspectors in Iran "were informed by the Iranian government … all the nuclear facilities we are inspecting every day would remain closed on security considerations”, the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency chief Rafael Grossi said. The move came as Iran threatened a ‘severe and widespread response’ to any Israel Defense Forces (IDF) strike amid fears of an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. World leaders are trying to ease tension following Iran’s first-ever direct attack on Israel on Saturday with a barrage of 300 missiles and drones. On Monday, Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu summoned his war cabinet for the second time in less than 24 hours to weigh their response. The IDF’s chief of staff Herzi Halevi said afterwards that Israel would respond. He provided no details. "This launch of so many missiles, cruise missiles, and drones into Israeli territory will be met with a response," he said at the Nevatim Airbase in southern Israel, which sustained some damage in Saturday night's attack. Yahoo's live coverage has paused for this evening. Please read details from Tuesday below or go to the homepage for the latest updates.

CENTCOM Forces Successfully Engage 2 Houthi UAVs
Asharq Al-Awsat/April 17/2024
The US Central Command (CENTCOM) said on Wednesday its forces successfully engaged two unmanned aerial (UAV) vehicles in areas controlled by the Iran-backed Houthi militias in Yemen on April 16. "There were no injuries or damage reported by US, coalition, or commercial ships," CENTCOM said in a statement. A Houthi spokesman said Sunday that the militias had been in direct confrontation with Israel since Oct. 7, by attacking the southern Israeli port of Eilat with missiles and drones and by preventing Israeli ships from sailing through the Red Sea.

Egypt, Türkiye Forge Closer Ties After Ending Rift
Cairo: Fathiya al-Dakhakhni/Asharq Al-Awsat/April 17/2024
Cairo and Ankara are swiftly repairing their relationship after years of tension. Egypt’s Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry is expected to visit Türkiye this week, setting the stage for a possible visit by President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi to Ankara, as previously announced. According to Turkish diplomatic sources, Shoukry will discuss Middle East developments and Gaza with his Turkish counterpart Hakan Fidan. The focus will be on ceasefire negotiations in Gaza. While Egypt hasn’t confirmed the visit officially, reports suggest Shoukry will meet Fidan in Türkiye by the week’s end. This marks Shoukry’s second visit since relations normalized in 2023. Experts see Shoukry’s visit as preparation for Sisi’s potential visit to Türkiye, aiming to discuss cooperation and set the agenda for an Egyptian-Turkish summit. This sentiment was echoed by Karam Said, an expert on Turkish affairs at the Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies. “A part of Shoukry’s visit will focus on preparing for the anticipated visit by Sisi and agreeing on the agenda for the Egyptian-Turkish summit and clarifying the issues to be discussed between the two countries,” he told Asharq Al-Awsat. Said highlighted that Shoukry’s upcoming visit to Türkiye is crucial given current tensions in bilateral relations and regional conflicts. It aligns with both countries’ efforts to ease tensions, prevent escalation, and mitigate the fallout from the Iranian-Israeli conflict. Last year’s groundbreaking meeting between Sisi and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Cairo signaled a shift toward normalization after over a decade of strained relations. Egypt and Türkiye elevated diplomatic ties, with both presidents meeting twice and officials from both countries holding multiple discussions. Enhancing relations benefits both countries and could contribute to resolving regional conflicts. The timing of Shoukry’s visit is crucial, given regional tensions, especially concerning Gaza and the Iranian-Israeli escalation. Egypt and Türkiye’s warming relations could pave the way for broader regional cooperation, potentially easing conflicts and fostering dialogue in the region.

Latest English LCCC  analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on April 17-18/2024
Can Netanyahu avoid triggering a regional war?
Analysis by Nic Robertson, CNN/Wed, April 17, 2024
To be more precise, 60 tons of explosives aboard more than 350 Iranian projectiles, some bigger than a family car, failed to dodge Israel’s defenses.
Yet Israel, in defiance of US President Joe Biden’s warnings to “take the win” and Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi’s threat of a “severe, extensive and painful” response to any retaliation, is contemplating just that. Deterrence, shorthand for “meanest S.O.B. in the room,” Israel believes, is the cornerstone of its survival. Iran is stealing that brick. In a paradigm shift after decades of shadow proxy war, Tehran is usurping Israel’s strategy. “We have decided to create a new equation,” Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Commander Hossein Salami said. “We will retaliate against them [Israel].”When faced with existential threats in the past, Israel has executed the most audacious raids the region has ever witnessed. Cloaked in extreme secrecy in 1981, they bombed Iraq’s nuclear reactor at Osirak before it went on line. Similarly, in 2007, they bombed Syrian dictator Bashar al Assad’s nuclear reactor before it could be built.Both attacks partnered intelligence with conventional military assets. It was 11 years before Israel admitted to the Syria strike. The point being, Israel won’t telegraph its plans as Iran did at the weekend, in carrying out an unprecedented attack in response to a suspected Israeli strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria, earlier this month. Aside from the core members of Israel’s war cabinet – Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and Netanyahu’s former biggest political rival Benny Gantz – more than a dozen other people have sat at the table deep inside the Kirya, Israel’s maximum security defense headquarters in Tel Aviv, thrashing out their next move.
Notably, Mossad Chief David Barnea and Army Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi are among several security and intelligence officials who have been brought in.
Outside the room, Netanyahu faces huge pressure from his hard right governing coalition. Bezalel Smotrich is demanding he “restore deterrence,” and popular Minister of National Security Itamar Ben-Gvir is calling on the prime minister to “go crazy.”Outside Israel, where allies are condemning Iran’s attack but urging restraint and some are also bitter about Netanyahu’s deadly treatment of Gaza’s Palestinians since Hamas’s brutal October 7 attack, calls for fresh sanctions on Tehran are growing. War cabinet members Gantz and Gallant are both seized of the diplomatic opportunity – Gantz saying, “we will build a regional coalition to exact a price from Iran”, while Gallant, according to a government press release, “highlighted the opportunity to establish an international coalition and strategic alliance to counter the threat posed by Iran.” The defense minister has hinted heavily that Iran’s nuclear facilities are in his sights, saying it is “a state that threatens to place nuclear warheads on its missiles.”Netanyahu, meanwhile, said in a statement on the X account of his office, “The international community must continue to stand united in resisting this Iranian aggression, which threatens world peace.”
Netanyahu’s next move will likely try to lock in sanctions, and strike before negative Gaza headlines dump the international good will filling his sails.
The clock is ticking. He needs two things, time to prepare a significant surprise strike, and time to coalesce international diplomacy. As both march to different beats, his legendary political acumen faces one of its stiffest tests yet.
Recent evidence suggests his finger no longer feels the regional pulse as it once did.
Earlier this year, following Israel’s precise, targeted assassination of Saleh Al-Arouri, Hamas’s Lebanese chief, in a second-floor Beirut apartment, the former fighter pilot and former head of the IDF’s Military Intelligence Directorate Amos Yadlin told me Israel was acting inside “red lines” to avoid escalation.
“The threshold is quite flexible,” Yadlin explained. “Deterrence is a decision at the head of a leader that can give a command to pull the trigger to launch a missile to start a war.”Yadlin knows a thing or two about deterrence and Israel’s past strikes against the nation’s existential threats. He was the fighter pilot who dropped the bomb that destroyed Iraq’s Osirak reactor in 1981, and in 2007 was the intelligence chief who planned the sophisticated audacious strike destroying Bashar al-Assad’s nuclear plant.
Last weekend, Iran’s leaders decided Netanyahu’s calculation to kill Mohammad Reza Zahedi, the IRGC’s commander running their proxies threatening Israel from Syria and Lebanon, in their Damascus consulate on April 1 had crossed a red line. Netanyahu’s calculation was wrong. “I think the Iranians will be very, very careful, even if after a provocation is they will suffer a loss, but starting a war with the US or even with Israel. They are not there yet. The damage that can be inflicted on Iran is huge, is huge.” So the most important question right now must be, can Netanyahu read the room right – with Iran threatening to attack, allies warning him not to – and avoid triggering a regional war. And the answer to that is buried in Yadlin’s remarkable insights. Iran, he implied, won’t attack Israel as long as it fears America’s reaction. Netanyahu has so strained relations with the Biden administration over Gaza, Israel’s enemies smell blood. Since the US abstained at a UN Security Council vote last month to call for ceasefire in Gaza, Hamas has taken an intransigent turn to hostage negotiations. Netanyahu is famed as a political survivor. But now he faces the biggest gamble of his career. He is betting the blood of his nation over Iran’s read of his rift with America.

What We Can Learn From Iran’s Attack on Israel
Bradley Bowman, Ryan Brobst, Mike Daum/FDD Insight/April 17/2024
Iran launched an unprecedented direct attack against Israel this weekend consisting of approximately 350 missiles and drones with a combined payload of around 60 tons of explosives, yet only a handful of missiles landed in Israel. The limited success of Iran’s attack was due largely to Israel’s impressive integrated air and missile defense system, the air defense support Israel received from the United States, United Kingdom, France, and Jordan, and intelligence reportedly passed on by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, demonstrating the promise of a potential American-Arab-Israeli regional security architecture. Following weeks of threats, Iran launched an attack of approximately 170 drones, over 30 cruise missiles, and over 120 ballistic missiles at Israel, according to the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). Reports suggest that Iran intended for the barrage to arrive all at once to overwhelm Israel’s defenses. The drones, which took several hours to reach Israel from Iran, were fired first. The drones were followed by cruise missiles and then by ballistic missiles, which take only minutes to arrive. The IDF stated that additional attacks came from Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen, with U.S. President Joe Biden separately confirming that Iranian proxies in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen participated in the attack. Iran’s attack followed an April 1 Israeli strike on a building adjacent to the Iranian embassy in Damascus, Syria, that killed senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Force leaders. Quds Force commander General Mohammed Reza Zahedi and his deputy, General Mohammad Hadi Hajriahimi, were responsible for IRGC activities in Lebanon and Syria and were killed in the strike.
In the wake of Hamas’s October 7 terror attack on Israel, the United States deployed a significant amount of combat power to the region, including the Dwight D. Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group, other warships, and a number of aircraft including F-15s, F-16s, and A-10s, among other assets. The U.S. military has been particularly active in the Red Sea dealing with Houthi attacks on Israel and on commercial shipping that have taken place since late 2023. In recent days, the United States moved additional “aircraft and ballistic missile defense destroyers” into the region. The previous and recent deployments played an important role in helping to defeat the Iranian attack.
U.S. forces, along with those of the United Kingdom, France, and Jordan, intercepted many of the projectiles as they headed towards Israel, particularly drones. U.S. Central Command and European Command forces destroyed over 80 drones and at least six ballistic missiles. Seven of these drones and one ballistic missile were struck in Houthi-controlled territory in Yemen before launch. The USS Carney (DDG-64) and USS Arleigh Burke (DDG-51), located in the Eastern Mediterranean, shot down at least four ballistic missiles. This notably marked the combat debut of the SM-3, an interceptor capable of defeating ballistic missiles outside the atmosphere.
The United Kingdom intercepted an unspecified number of Iranian drones with RAF fighters in Syrian and Iraqi airspace. RAF Typhoons also reportedly covered planned U.S. Air Force missions over Iraq and Syria, allowing the United States greater latitude in helping Israel’s military. Jordan intercepted an unspecified number of drones that entered its airspace in “self-defense,” while France intercepted an unspecified number of Iranian drones reportedly over Jordanian airspace “at Jordan’s request,” according to President Macron. Saudi Arabia and the UAE reportedly shared radar tracks and other intelligence that helped defeat Iran’s attack. Israel intercepted dozens of drones with fighter jets and other air defense systems, 25 cruise missiles outside Israeli air space, and an unknown number of ballistic missiles. These combined efforts, along with reports indicating that around half of Iran’s missiles failed, led to an impressive success rate by multinational forces in preventing projectiles from landing in Israel. Roughly nine ballistic missiles landed in Israel, with at least four landing at Nevatim Air Base, damaging a C-130 transport aircraft, an unused runway, and empty storage facilities. An additional ballistic missile reportedly targeting a radar site missed and landed in northern Israel.
While details are still emerging, three initial observations are possible.
First, the nature and scale of Iran’s attack demonstrate that Israel and America’s ability to deter Iran from directly attacking Israel has eroded. When asked Friday about his message to Iran regarding a potential attack on Israel, Biden responded with a one-word warning: “Don’t.” Clearly unimpressed with warnings from Washington, Iran proceeded to launch an unprecedented, complex, and direct attack against Israel. Second, the shadow war between Iran and Israel is now fully in the spotlight, and the future of the conflict between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the State of Israel will likely never be the same. Iran will continue to use its proxies to attack Israel. But the Rubicon has been crossed. Iran has now attacked Israel directly from Iranian territory. That means Iran is more likely to do so again in the future, depending on how Israel and the United States respond. Future attacks could be much worse for Israel, and Israelis should avoid overconfidence. For its part, Israel will continue to conduct covert operations against Iran and its proxies. But Israel will likely feel even more license to conduct attacks inside Iran.
Some will welcome more attacks against Iran as a necessary correction to a strategy that focused too much on the terror puppets and not enough on the puppet master in Tehran orchestrating proxy attacks while moving toward a nuclear weapon capability.
Finally, the early details emerging underscore that efforts in recent years to move toward a combined American-Arab-Israeli regional security architecture may have paid dividends this weekend. Intelligence reportedly provided by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates almost certainly helped the United States and Israel prepare and respond more effectively. And despite tensions over Gaza, Jordan reportedly worked with Israel to facilitate the destruction of inbound Iranian drones.
Such cooperation offers a preview of what an increasingly capable combined regional security architecture could accomplish when it comes to deterring, detecting, and defeating Iranian aggression. The growing threat from Iran and the developments this weekend underscore the value in prioritizing work on the construction of a combined American-Arab-Israeli regional security architecture in the coming months, even if Arab governments prefer to work quietly, at least in the short term.
In the meantime, the United States and Israel must strengthen their clearly tattered deterrence against Iran, or things could get much worse in the future.
*Bradley Bowman is senior director of the Center on Military and Political Power at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
*Ryan Brobst is a senior research analyst
*Mike Daum is a research analyst. For more analysis from Brad and CMPP, please subscribe HERE. Follow Brad on Twitter @Brad_L_Bowman. Follow FDD on Twitter @FDD and @FDD_CMPP. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

Toward a Jihadist Caliphate
Nils A. Haug/Gatestone Institute./April 17, 2024
Not only are Jews under threat, but Christians and all "unbelievers" in the radical jihadist agenda as well.
Although an "ostrich" mentality towards these genocidal objectives prevails among Western decision-makers, the reality is quite different: The driving ideology behind Hamas's murderous intent is exemplified by the "Doomsday Clock" located in Palestine Square, Tehran, Iran. Inaugurated by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in 2017, the clock counts down the time towards Israel's anticipated destruction in 2040, sixteen years from now. Iran's barrage of missiles and drones launched at Israel on April 13, 2024, was presumably another step toward fulfilling that destructive intent.
Even though Iran remains essentially responsible for the actions of its agents, it has yet to suffer any consequences despite its direct attack on Israel on April 13-14. All the while, taking full advantage of US appeasement and unencumbered by meaningful sanctions, Iran races ahead with development of nuclear weapons for the sole purpose of eliminating Israel and, thereafter Jordan and ultimately the "Great Satan," the United States from the world map. On April 1, 2024, Abolfazl Bazargan, an Iranian international relations expert, made it clear, with a straight face, that "...for the purpose of bringing about peace - you have to create nuclear deterrence, even if only one (bomb)." Peace, however, seems to mean "after jihad has obliterated all opposition and established an Islamic Caliphate." This objective is couched in rational terms to appease West powers, the sympathetic world leaders, who might be persuaded that it is fair and right that Iran possess a nuclear weapon just as Israel, the US, UK, North Korea, and other nations possess such weapons. The underlying jihadist ideology of world hegemony is concealed under a veneer of rationalism, social justice, victimhood, and fairness.
"It's a belief that goes a long way in explaining the dehumanization of the Jews: It's much easier to brutalize and slaughter, the way Hamas did on October 7, if you think that Jews are apes and pigs. In our rational Western way of thinking, all of this is unfathomable." — Idit Bar, expert on Islamism, Times of Israel, February 2, 2024.
Refusing to directly confront Iran as the source of Middle Eastern terror -- and instead rely on diplomatic "conflict resolution" that enables Iran to buy time -- amounts to a form of appeasement. At this time, preparation for war is the best deterrence, especially in the current circumstances of a misguided faith in "talking."It was an attitude of pusillanimous appeasement by UK Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain of Nazi Germany in 1938, with the Munich Agreement, that directly resulted in Hitler's unrestrained march on neighbouring countries, thus inaugurating WW2. In like mode, US President Joe Biden's acolytes now appease Iran's Ayatollahs, an approach that commenced under President Barack Obama. Once again, the consequences for the West and the world at large will be horrendous. Abolfazl Bazargan, an Iranian international relations expert, recently said on Iran's Ofagh TV that "...for the purpose of bringing about peace - you have to create nuclear deterrence, even if only one (bomb)." Peace, however, seems to mean "after jihad has obliterated all opposition and established an Islamic Caliphate." (Image source: MEMRI)
On February 9, 2024, Imam Sheikh Abdul Salam Zoud at the Masjid As-Sunnah Lakemba in Sydney, Australia, made the following live-streamed pronouncement:
"There is no solution other than Jihad which continues until Judgement Day. The Prophet Muhammad, the Righteous Caliphs – none of them conquered the world by peaceful means. They conquered it through Jihad. The goal of Jihad for the sake of Allah is not to kill people and take over their lands. Rather, the goal of Jihad is to remove obstacles before the spreading and rule of Islam."The Imam's statement might come across as a bit disingenuous. Although it appears to publicly eschew the elimination of unbelievers (infidels) – meaning those who do not embrace jihad, including Jews, Christians, and devotees of all other religions – he explains that "conquering the world" is not possible other than through jihad. He describes this action as "removing obstacles," a euphemism for the destruction of those opposed to establishment of a global Islamist Caliphate, a 'nizam Islami' (Islamic order), ruled through totalitarian Sharia law. This even includes the distant nations of Australia and New Zealand, where radical Islamists wish to share their gift of Allah, by force if necessary, with the entire planet.
The exposure of jihadists' far-reaching desires is evident from the October 10th, 2023, unruly Sydney Harbour demonstration in favour of the jihadist group, Hamas, during which Israel – and Jews – were vilified, threatened with death and destruction, without recourse of any kind. The demonstration is reflected the Imam's conviction, above, that, "these people only understand the language of force." For extremists, religion appears to be much of their motivating factor as the Imam went on to explain:
"This is the purpose of fighting and waging Jihad against the enemies of Islam – to fend off their evil from the religion of Islam, and to defend Allah's religion, which was created to reign supreme over all other religions..."
This wish by many Islamists for the global supremacy of their religion through holy war could not have been made much clearer. Denial of reality by political and social leaders will, without doubt, result in increased turmoil to that already experienced by societies in France, the UK, Germany, Sweden, and other European nations, not to overlook the USA. In this mode, and given the generally pleasant, easy-going, but sometimes lackadaisical attitude of those far away in the southern reaches of the lower hemisphere, a major awakening is also required. Not only are Jews under threat, but Christians and all "unbelievers" in the radical jihadist agenda as well.
The devastating attack on innocent civilians, particularly young girls, women, children, and babies, in Israel on October 7, 2023, brought international attention to jihad and the Islamist plan of seeking an "end of days" Caliphate. Although an "ostrich" mentality towards these genocidal objectives prevails among Western decision-makers, the reality is quite different: The driving ideology behind Hamas's murderous intent is exemplified by the "Doomsday Clock" located in Palestine Square, Tehran, Iran. Inaugurated by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in 2017, the clock counts down the time towards Israel's anticipated destruction in 2040, sixteen years from now. Iran's barrage of missiles and drones launched at Israel on April 13, 2024, was presumably another step toward fulfilling that destructive intent.
Iran, as well as its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and terror proxies of Hezbollah, the Houthis, Hamas, Islamic Jihad and others -- are actors in the frontline of the intended annihilation of the Jewish people first, then all other unbelievers. Even though Iran remains essentially responsible for the actions of its agents, it has yet to suffer any consequences despite its direct attack on Israel on April 13-14. All the while, taking full advantage of US appeasement and unencumbered by meaningful sanctions, Iran races ahead with development of nuclear weapons for the sole purpose of eliminating Israel and, thereafter Jordan and ultimately the "Great Satan," the United States from the world map.
On April 1, 2024, Abolfazl Bazargan, an Iranian international relations expert, made it clear, with a straight face, that "...for the purpose of bringing about peace - you have to create nuclear deterrence, even if only one (bomb)." Peace, however, seems to mean "after jihad has obliterated all opposition and established an Islamic Caliphate." This objective is couched in rational terms to appease West powers, the sympathetic world leaders, who might be persuaded that it is fair and right that Iran possess a nuclear weapon just as Israel, the US, UK, North Korea, and other nations possess such weapons. The underlying jihadist ideology of world hegemony is concealed under a veneer of rationalism, social justice, victimhood, and fairness.
There has been a serious escalation in Iran's nuclear weapons program, according to a February 2024, report from Washington's Institute for Science and International Security. The Institute monitors Iranian progress in this field through a virtual "Iran Threat Geiger Counter," which presently indicates a level described as "Extreme Danger." This category is explained as a "national security threat typically posed by a combination of hostile intentions and capabilities." Revealingly, the former head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, Ali-Akbar Salehi, admitted on February 11, 2024, that "Iran has crossed all scientific and technological thresholds necessary for producing a nuclear bomb."
Added to the concern of all nations is the exposure by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), on February 26, 2024, that Iran is in the process of constructing a nuclear facility hitherto unknown to the West. Such secretive actions are usually accompanied by reprehensible motives.
In the interim, the West watches, seditiously lacking the will to act. Perhaps they plan, as then US President Barack Obama did, that any nuclear breakout at least would not happen "on my watch." Iran has long displayed its malevolent intent against "enemies of Islam" -- in particular the "Little Satan," Israel, and the "Great Satan," the United States. Iran's influential solicitations reach Russia, supplying it with lethal weapons and adding greatly to the possibility of a defeated Ukraine, a country bordering much of Europe. Even so, Western nations, these reputed bastions of a fine civilization, remain largely paralysed by fear, lack of serious preparation, and indecision over the calamity about to descend upon them.
Generally overlooked is the importance of examining the historical background of jihadist animus and its destructive aims against Western nations, particularly Israel and the US. Hamas's Charter of 1988 reflects Islamist theory for the last 1,400 years, and states that Muslims alone are permitted to occupy and rule all of "Palestine." Hence, all infidels, non-believers, have no right of occupation and are to be expelled. The charter (Articles 7-15), reveals the apocalyptic endgame of Islamism, paraphrased by James Turner Johnson as follows:
"The goal of eliminating the Zionist entity and all who support it requires the death of all Jews and when this is accomplished the end of history, the final Day of Judgement, will arrive then the whole earth shall be Muslim for eternity."
The charter's dictates are visible for all to see, along with the multi-front assault by Iran's proxies on Israel, US forces in Iraq and Syria, and global shipping traversing the Red Sea area. The current conflagration between Israel and Hamas over Gaza is therefore only one step amongst many leading towards a comprehensive global war for creation of an Islamist Caliphate, regulated by Sharia law. Followers of the Islamic State (ISIS) aim towards a Caliphate their own way, as do other extremist groups like Al-Qaeda.
On April 3, 2024, analyst Ayelet Savyon proposed that Iran's grand plan was to bring "down the regime in Jordan and to attack Israel from the east while Israel is kept busy by Iran-backed resistance forces in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza." The purpose, she explained, is to frustrate the "Saudi-American project of normalization with Israel," after the expulsion of US forces from Iraq and the "undermining of the Saudi kingdom and Egyptian regime." This strategy, emphasizes Savyon, is how "Iran actualizes its vision of the Islamic revolution," which in turn will establish the Caliphate. While Israeli forces engage malevolent actors in Gaza, Syria, Lebanon, and Iran, it is clear that the next imminent step is jihadist domination of Jordan. With its substantial Palestinian population, Jordon is particularly susceptible to a hard-line Islamic revolution.
It is significant to note that Hamas, and disparate fundamentalist players, emanate from ideological influence of the covert Muslim Brotherhood movement – a multi-faceted entity like the multi-headed Hydra, the mythical beast of Heraclean fame. Founded in Egypt in 1928, and today enjoying support of Qatar, Iran, and Turkey -- but banned in pro-Western Muslim States such as the UAE, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt, where it is classified as a terror organization -- the Brotherhood's ultimate agenda is the creation of a paradisical Caliphate under Sharia law.
The Brotherhood reportedly believe that the Caliph himself, regarded as a messianic religious-political figure and disciplic successor to the prophet Mohammed, will be supreme ruler of the entire Muslim world. It is from these teachings that Hamas draws its ideological underpinnings, not to minimise the allure of money, influence and power. There may even be -- if there is not a fight to the finish -- a convergence of Sunni and Shiite jihadist ideology for the purposes of establishing the Caliphate, upon demise of the enemies of Islam. This event, albeit remote, looks possible from Sunni-Shiite cooperation as evident in Shiite Iran's support for both Sunni Hamas and Shiite Hezbollah, jointly seeking eradication of Israel and the US, as do all splinter terror groups whatever their affiliation.
The jihadist movements, therefore, claim to have as their core reason for being that of a religious purpose whereby Islam is the sole true faith – one that is destined to dominate the world. It follows that those who dispute this view are regarded as infidels, worthy of death. Of particular focus are the Jews, described in an April 2002 sermon by the highest ranking cleric in the Sunni Muslim world, Al-Azhar Sheikh Muhammad Sayyid Tantawi, as "the enemies of Allah... the scum of the human race, the rats of the world, the violators of pacts and agreements, the murderers of the prophets, and the offspring of apes and pigs."
Tantawi was simply repeating certain verses from the Quran (2:65; 5:60; 7:166). Prominent Shiite clerics hold the same opinion. Quranic commentators apply this description to Christians as well as Jews. For well over 1,000 years, Islamic clerics have taught this worldview to countless generations of students and, as a consequence, it has long been ingrained in the Muslim psyche.
In February 2024, an expert on Islamism, Idit Bar, noted:
"Israelis often underestimate the religious sentiment in Muslim societies. Mainstream Israeli society is Western-oriented, rationalistic, and generally not religious, so for us, it's hard to understand.
"Many Muslims are driven by a messianic ideology, an apocalyptic vision that Israel will eventually be vanquished by Islam. Many believe it's imminent — think of the clock in a Tehran square counting down the days to Israel's destruction.
"We Israelis find that ludicrous, but for many Muslims it's a certainty. The same goes for the belief that Jews are the descendants of 'apes and pigs,' based on a curse that Allah pronounced against them according to three Quranic verses.
"It's a belief that goes a long way in explaining the dehumanization of the Jews: It's much easier to brutalize and slaughter, the way Hamas did on October 7, if you think that Jews are apes and pigs. In our rational Western way of thinking, all of this is unfathomable."
Rationality, as history indicates, is not relevant when confronting fanatical religious fervour. In his seminal text of 1996, The Clash of Civilizations, Samuel Huntington wrote :
"So long as Islam remains Islam (which it will) and the West remains the West (which is more dubious), this fundamental conflict between two great civilizations and ways of life will continue to define their relations in the future even as it has defined them for the past fourteen centuries."
Here, Huntington emphasized a deep cultural and religious identity chasm as the basic cause of discord. This is ironically exacerbated by a commonality between them, between the Judeo-Christian and Islamist faith systems in their understanding of time as linear and finite, leading inexorably to an apocalyptic event at the "end of days." In both instances the advance of a messianic age is dependent upon certain factors. In radical Islam, it is the establishment of the Caliphate, which can only occur upon the eradication of Jews and Christians from the region. For Christians and Jews, the advent of "the time of Jacob's troubles" is heralded by the very same "storm of the Lord." In both faiths, the long-awaited apocalyptic process has been inaugurated, whether this is fully grasped or not. This agenda is no secret, as Iran quite openly "depicts the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as a religious one – Islam vs Judaism – and thus presents its particular aim of eliminating Israel as pan-Islamic."
As Israel battles for survival against Islamist radicals on many fronts, leaders of the US, the world's guarantor of liberty and democracy, play political games with providing Israel urgently needed military support, thereby emboldening Israel's adversaries and compromising its war effort. To add to Israel's woes, the US seeks to micro-manage its war strategy while ignoring the reality taking place daily on the battlefield. It was the British political commentator Douglas Murray who, in October 2023, suggested:
"Israel seems to be the only country in the world never allowed to win a conflict. It is allowed to fight a conflict to a draw, but rarely to a win. Which is one reason why the wars keep occurring."
Refusing to directly confront Iran as the source of Middle Eastern terror amounts to a form of appeasement. It was an attitude of pusillanimous appeasement by UK Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain of Nazi Germany in 1938, with the Munich Agreement, that directly resulted in Hitler's unrestrained march on neighbouring countries, thus inaugurating WW2. In like mode, US President Joe Biden's acolytes now appease Iran's Ayatollahs, an approach that commenced under President Barack Obama. Once again, the consequences for the West and the world at large will be horrendous.
Israel is "burning" and the West itself will soon experience great internal mayhem from the millions of radical Islamists in its midst. The US can expect vehement instances of jihad from the myriad of Palestinian supporters residing there. An article in the Wall Street Journal of February 2, 2024, headed, "Welcome to Dearborn, America's Jihadist Capital," observed that "Imams and politicians in the Michigan city side with Hamas against Israel, and with Iran against America." With Dearborn's Muslim Mayor leading the way, thousands of activists marched in support of terrorists of Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran while chanting "America is a terrorist state" and "from the river to the sea, Palestine will be free." Iran's strategy in planting covert agents within US borders has been ominously successful.
The same conclusion applies even more so to Europe, Scandinavia, and the UK, with frequent mass protests on the same basis. In an interview on February 4, 2024, Douglas Murray commented on the opposition by Islamist fanatics to his anticipated appearance at a London venue – which was cancelled after threats to staff, and relocated -- by lamenting:
"I don't recognise Britain anymore. It's filled with Islamists parading around the streets, praising terrorists and with cowards in all positions of public life. When a threat is enough to cause such fear amongst staff members that they refuse to show up for work, we all have a very big problem."
Iran and Russia, together with China and North Korea, comprise an axis of evil insofar as the West is concerned. These pretenders seek a new world order, one reflecting their revolutionary and totalitarian ideals. To bring that about, the US as foremost global power needs to be weakened. This view might explain the hostility against the West's allies, such as Israel, Ukraine and Taiwan. Australia and New Zealand are likewise considered part of the Western alliance and will not escape involvement despite their remoteness from the Middle East. In the result, a multi-front war scenario can be anticipated -- but one which Western powers might be unable to successfully contain due to their present state of unpreparedness. Iran, with its underlying agenda of a Sharia Caliphate, is the instigator of world revolution, commencing in the Middle East. In the interim, Iran, in the conflagration of world discord, appears to be racing toward its nuclear opportunity for world domination.
As the possibility of another world war rapidly escalates, coupled to internal social unrest, the prognosis for peace deteriorates. Refusing to directly confront Iran as the source of Middle Eastern terror -- and instead rely on diplomatic "conflict resolution" that enables Iran to buy time -- amounts to a form of appeasement. At this time, preparation for war is the best deterrence, especially in the current circumstances of a misguided faith in "talking." It was described in an earlier context by Winston Churchill, referring to the pivotal 1940 Battle of Britain: "The odds were great, our margins small; the stakes infinite."
Finally, the sombre statement on January 14, 2024, by President Isaac Herzog of Israel, as representative of the liberal democratic order in the Middle East, captures the dangerous situation ahead for all Western nations, especially the canary-in-the-coalmine, Israel:
"Despite the challenges ahead, I have no doubt that we will emerge from the shadows of this conflict stronger and more determined than ever. Together, as one nation, we will overcome the darkness, rise from the ashes, rebuild, replant, sow, affix mezuzahs on homes, turn each and every hell into a paradise, as we have always done... The spirit of the people of Israel will always overcome. This time too, our spirit will prevail."
Leaders of all Western nations, extending from Norway and Canada in the north to New Zealand and Australia in the south, need to emulate Israel's resolve for the sake of their peace-loving citizens, for the sake of their liberal democratic values and freedoms, and the future of their nations.
***Nils A. Haug is an author and columnist. A lawyer by profession, he is member of the International Bar Association, the National Association of Scholars, the Academy of Philosophy and Letters. Retired from law, his particular field of interest is political theory interconnected with current events. He holds a Ph.D. in Theology (Apologetics). Dr. Haug is author of 'Politics, Law, and Disorder in the Garden of Eden – the Quest for Identity'; and 'Enemies of the Innocent – Life, Truth, and Meaning in a Dark Age.' His work has appeared in First Things Journal, The American Mind, Quadrant, Minding the Campus, Gatestone Institute, Jewish News Syndicate, Israel Hayom, and others.
**© 2024 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Iran Is its Own Worst Enemy
Tariq Al-Homayed/Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper/April 17/2024
The Iranian regime’s comical retaliation against Israel was a costly strategic mistake that cannot be easily or quickly corrected. Tehran launched about 300 drones and a few missiles without inflicting significant damage. Its strategic mistake was to focus more on safeguarding its image than its political interests, thereby dealing itself a blow that none of its adversaries had managed to land since the Khomeini revolution. Iran’s retaliation to Israel's attacks on its consulate in Damascus, which led to the deaths of the Quds Force’s deputy commander and five others, showed the world that Iran is a malevolent actor that should not be trusted, even without nuclear weapons, let alone if it does! The regime affirmed this itself, not its adversaries. What Tehran did was reckless. It went against all the talk of strategic patience and carpet weaving, which promoted a narrative that Iranian politicians could remain patient for years and fight the urge to achieve swift results. Indeed, the feeble response showed that, despite the fact that the median age of its decision-makers is high, the Iranians are extremely anxious.
The recklessness of the elderly is politically dangerous. “Beware of the old man in a hurry,” as the saying goes. Politically, it means that the senior leader no longer trusts his country’s institutions and its project, and that he seeks swift results and is willing to polish the regime's image at the expense of strategic goals.
Iran has proven that it is a seditious state, and that it is its own enemy, without much help from Israel and the countries of the region. It has undercut the arguments of everyone who defends it in the West, specifically in the United States, where what is known as the Iranian lobby has become an item on the agenda of the presidential elections.
Congress is now rallying around the protection of Israel. With its comical response, Iran has relieved the tensions around the war in Gaza, which is no longer the priority. Iran reminded Congress that it is a real threat to peace and stability in the region. Iran’s comical response has proven that joint defense in the region is practical and inevitable. We need to go no further than reminding ourselves that 99 percent of the drones and missiles Iran launched at Israel were intercepted, mostly outside Israel; some were even intercepted in Iraq, which is part of Iran’s sphere of influence! Iran's comical response reminded everyone in the region that it cannot be trusted, even without nuclear weapons. How would it be perceived if it were to acquire them? Its nuclear program does not only concern regional countries, or the West and the United States. China is now calling for restraint, and so are the Russians. No global actor can afford to see maritime navigation disrupted or the instigation of a massive conflict by a country with primitive weapons whose political mindset prevents it from understanding the consequences of its actions.
Iran also made a strategic mistake when it became clear that its comical response was retaliation for the assassination of the deputy commander of the Quds Force and not in defense of Gaza or Hamas. That told the people of the region that Iranians are more important to Tehran than the Palestinian cause.
All of that tells us that Iran committed an unprecedented strategic error. What comes next is different, and the mistake will have grave consequences. Iran has reminded the region that we must strive for peace and conclude defense agreements, and it has reaffirmed that allowing Iran to become a nuclear power would be a fatal mistake for which the entire world would pay a price.
**Tariq Al-Homayed: Saudi journalist and writer, and former editor-in-chief of Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper

Winston Churchill Gets the Last Word on Islam
Raymond Ibrahim/April 17/2024
Last month, police were deployed to form a ring of steel around the statue of Winston Churchill in Parliament Square, London, to protect it from the hands of an irate pro-Palestinian “mob.”
Surely there is something of an irony here: although Churchill is being targeted on the hackneyed view that he was a leading member of the White Patriarchy and therefore inherently evil — BLM attacked this same statue for that very reason in 2020 — the British statesman did, in fact, have some insightful things to say about the religion of many of his would-be attackers.
Consider the following quote from Churchill’s 1899 book, River War: An Historical Account of the Reconquest of the Soudan (vol.1):
How dreadful are the curses which Mohammedanism lays on its votaries! Besides the fanatical frenzy, which is as dangerous in a man as hydrophobia in a dog, there is this fearful fatalistic apathy. The effects are apparent in many countries, improvident habits, slovenly systems of agriculture, sluggish methods of commerce, and insecurity of property exist wherever the followers of the Prophet rule or live. A degraded sensualism deprives this life of its grace and refinement, the next of its dignity and sanctity. The fact that in Mohammedan law every woman must belong to some man as his absolute property, either as a child, a wife, or a concubine, must delay the final extinction of slavery until the faith of Islam has ceased to be a great power among men. Individual Muslims may show splendid qualities, but the influence of the religion paralyses the social development of those who follow it. No stronger retrograde force exists in the world. Far from being moribund, Mohammedanism is a militant and proselytizing faith. It has already spread throughout Central Africa, raising fearless warriors at every step; and were it not that Christianity is sheltered in the strong arms of science, the science against which it had vainly struggled, the civilization of modern Europe might fall, as fell the civilization of ancient Rome.
The United Kingdom — as well as many other Western nations and polities that host large Muslim populations — has been learning the truths of this excerpt the hard way. As just one example, crime, including sex crimes, has soared in the UK. This is unsurprising, since “insecurity of property exist wherever the followers of the Prophet rule or live,” to say nothing of the aforementioned “degraded sensualism,” “fanatical frenzy,” and “slovenly systems.” (It’s the same throughout European nations with large Muslim populations. In Sweden, violent crime has increased by 300% and rapes by 1,472% — thanks to its burgeoning Muslim demographic.)
Note, too, Churchill’s fair observation that “Individual Muslims may show splendid qualities, but the influence of the religion paralyses the social development of those who follow it.” This assertion perfectly explains the truth behind so-called “moderate Muslims” who end up making for good citizens in the West. They are good in spite of, not because of, the teachings of their religion.
Churchill is also noteworthy for warning against the dangers of pacifism in the face of growing threats — another topic relevant to the UK’s circumstances vis-à-vis its overwhelming Muslim population. While the following excerpt was written in response to the policy of appeasing Hitler leading up to WWII, it is especially relevant to the UK’s “migrant problem” and the appeasement with which it has been met. This has resulted in a demographic conquest: in the very capital of the UK — London, where Churchill’s statue stands, and where a few days ago rioting Muslim mobs hurled trash at passive police — the name “Muhammad” is today the most popular name for newborn baby boys (as well as in several other Western capitals, including Amsterdam, Berlin, Brussels, Oslo, et al).
While it is doubtful that Churchill — or any other Brit born in the late nineteenth century — could ever have conceived that Britain would willingly give itself over to Islam, here are his rather applicable words concerning passivity in the face of growing threats (in this case, Hitler):
[I]f you will not fight for the right when you can easily win without bloodshed; if you will not fight when your victory will be sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves.
Such words are proving increasingly ominous for much of Western Europe — with Londonistan at the fore.

Will the post-1920 maps survive the Middle East’s great implosion?
Eyad Abu Shakra/Asharq Al-Awsat/April 17, 2024
tense — if not explosive — current political circumstances, that this article will be condemned in some quarters and be met with bewilderment and discomfort in others. Nonetheless, anything less than a blunt conversation would be inappropriate.
The region finds itself in an extremely dangerous position today. Its people do not fully appreciate the risks and the international community, which has been losing credibility with every day that passes and at every juncture, does not care about the repercussions. Of course, some consider our countries powerless and incapable of making a difference or having an impact on the current course of events, seeing their proliferation in nearly every corner of the Arab world as proof. In fact, as soon as we resolve one issue, it spawns another crisis and, once any crisis emerges, one faction or other tries to exploit it before its ramifications impact them. I believe there is no need to waste time addressing each of these crises. Still, there is no harm in discussing particular cases. Both major and minor polities, as well as mature and newly emergent political identities, are now feeling the repercussions of the regionwide collapse. Failed states are waving hello as far as the eye can see. Some consider our countries powerless and incapable of having an impact on the current course of events. Lebanon was rocked by two murders over the past week. The first victim was Pascal Suleiman, the coordinator of the Lebanese Forces in Jbeil. The second was a money changer named Mohammed Surur, who had been sanctioned by the US for facilitating financial operations by Hezbollah, Iran and Hamas. According to the official narrative, Suleiman was assassinated during a car robbery. However, details of the incident, including those that emerged before his body was found, as well as the fact that his corpse was taken from Lebanon to Syria, suggest that this was anything but a robbery.
Many Lebanese factions have linked Suleiman’s killing to Syrian refugees and displaced persons, as well as to “illegitimate” arms. The latter is an obvious nod to Hezbollah and this rhetoric comes amid talk that the group could become embroiled in an all-out clash with Israel in solidarity with Tehran following the strike on its consulate in Damascus. For context, Jbeil is a mixed region predominantly inhabited by Maronites and Shiites. It has seen a litany of disputes and controversies over land ownership and political and partisan mobilization in recent months.
We have seen a consistent rise in violent incitement against Syrian refugees and displaced persons within the Christian community in Lebanon. Thus, the murder of Suleiman hit several birds with one stone.
Firstly, it created a link to the incident with Syrian territory and Syrian individuals.
Secondly, it fueled the fears of Lebanese Christians regarding the presence of Syrian refugees and displaced individuals in the country, thereby strengthening calls for their return (even though the main reason Syrian refugees have remained in Lebanon is that the Damascus regime refuses to allow them to return, having deliberately displaced them). Thirdly, it has created a climate of fear in Lebanon that ends with acquiescence to the logic of armed force and leaves those with arms, either through war or deals in which Iran plays a major role, to decide Lebanon’s fate.
The emotional and nationalistic reactions seen in many quarters are understandable and even predictable
Fourthly, it has sent an indirect message to other Lebanese sects: accept that decisions of war and peace will remain in the hands of Hezbollah and the armed groups under its command, which it is now also creating within other sects.
Questions also remain regarding the murder of Surur. A woman claiming she wanted his help completing a financial transaction asked Surur to come to her villa outside Beirut, and he left her villa a corpse.
The precise and calibrated manner in which the assassination was carried out reaffirms what we already know: that regional intelligence agencies, particularly Mossad, are extremely active in the country. The Mossad has shown, as it did with the assassination of leading Hamas official Saleh Al-Arouri in January, that it can reach targets inside Lebanon, as well as in Syria and Iraq, with confidence and ease.
Mossad is operating in Lebanon and its arm is long, to borrow a phrase from the Lebanese dialect. Israel understands the implications of potentially displacing tens of thousands of Shiite southerners to the Lebanese interior in the event of an escalation, especially in ethnically and religiously sensitive regions. Thus, we should not discount the prospect of domestic sectarian strife being stirred, if Israel seeks it and the Americans and Europeans are complicit.
This scenario applies to Jordan and Syria as well.
The maps of 1920, drawn after the First World War, determine the contemporary borders of Lebanon, Syria, Jordan and Iraq. Iran has effectively erased these borders since 2003, first through hegemony in Iraq and then in Syria, which has been transformed into a “bridge” connecting the Iranian proxies that are in control of Iraq and Lebanon. Moreover, after the world remained silent as Tehran and Moscow suppressed the Syrian mass uprising of 2011, Iran began working on an extensive and ongoing settlement project in various regions of the country.
Meanwhile, Tehran has also tightened its grip on Iraq and it is currently escalating the situation there. Some Iraqi factions under Iran’s control have set their sights on Jordan, targeting it directly from the east. In this regard, the emotional and nationalistic reactions seen in many quarters are understandable and even predictable. Nonetheless, as the saying goes, “the devil is in the details.” I have no doubt that the extremist Israeli leadership would not mind if Jordan were to collapse as a political entity, as that would facilitate the forced expulsion of Palestinians from the West Bank. The same scenario applies to the reconfiguration of Lebanon after the majority of the Shiite population on the border with Israel is forced to go north, into the Lebanese interior, to confuse the situation and stir primal instincts.
It can also be applied in Syria, which has essentially ceased to be a sovereign state. Various powers have established spheres of influence within it: the Russians in the northwest, the Turks in the region from Idlib to Aleppo and the Euphrates, the Americans and Kurds in the areas east of the Euphrates and, finally, the “Iranian corridor,” stretching from Baghdad through Abu Kamal and Damascus to Beirut. Currently. The only areas that are not controlled by foreign powers are in southern Syria, namely Deraa and Suwayda.
These are difficult times and anything can happen. Arabs lack the capacity to shape developments, Israel’s fanaticism is not being restrained and international institutions have become incapacitated through complicity, inadequacy or the rule of populist leaders. All of this is happening as the US prepares to hold a presidential election that will be like no other.
**Eyad Abu Shakra is managing editor of Asharq Al-Awsat. X: @eyad1949

Saturday Night’s Attack: What’s at Stake for the Pasdaran?
Michel Touma/This is Beirut/April 17/2024
It started with a small-scale war of attrition through its proxies and ended with a direct confrontation… The massive attack, using drones and missiles, launched Saturday night by the Pasdaran from Iranian territory against Israel has unmistakably plunged the Middle East into a new phase. It is still too early to gauge the full consequences and strategic significance of this attack.
Until then, some facts regarding Saturday’s vast operation deserve a closer focus due to their significant political implications. Notably, according to Israeli sources, it’s the type and sheer volume of projectiles launched that stand out: 185 drones, 110 ballistic missiles and 36 cruise missiles. With air defenses (American, British, French, Jordanian and, of course, Israeli) already on alert, the attack was effectively disclosed well before it happened. As such, these air defenses managed to intercept and destroy all 185 drones before they reached Israeli airspace. This task was made even easier by the fact that these drones were extremely slow: it took them several hours to reach their target! The way they were neutralized was on par with old-style video games…
As for the missiles, only seven out of the 146 managed to circumvent the defense system. Furthermore, several corroborating sources indicated that they carried minimal explosive materials! These facts account for the negligible impact on the ground given the extensive scale of the operation: only one casualty—a young Arab girl—and minimal material damage inflicted to an airbase in the Negev region of southern Israel.
For the sake of comparison, during the Gulf War in 1991, Saddam Hussein’s regime bombarded Israel with Scud missiles, resulting in two deaths, over 220 injuries and extensive damage to 1,300 houses, 6,100 apartments, around 20 public buildings, 200 stores and approximately 50 cars. This significant toll can be attributed, in part, to the absence at that time of a high-performing defense system such as the one used on Saturday night. The striking contrast between the Pasdaran’s impressive arsenal and the minimal impact it had on the ground may also be attributed to the regime’s geopolitical ambitions, transcending mere military objectives. By framing their actions as retaliation for a recent airstrike targeting their consulate in Damascus, which resulted in the death of a high-ranking Pasdaran official, the Iranian regime seemed to aim for a calculated, direct confrontation with Israel. However, their aim wasn’t solely about “liberating Jerusalem” (a misleading ploy) but rather about cementing their position among the key regional powers, while carefully avoiding a large-scale confrontation with Tel Aviv.
At this point, it looks like Iran has achieved its objective, following the offensive initiated by Hamas on October 7. However, Israel’s response to “Saturday night’s attack” suggests that the matter is far from settled. Israel’s potential retaliation will most likely aim to curb the Pasdaran’s ambitions and expansionist tendencies, thereby avoiding a repeat of October 7 in the foreseeable future. The looming threat may push the Netanyahu administration to launch a comprehensive offensive aimed at permanently neutralizing the Arab proxies of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, by mostly targeting Hezbollah and whatever is left of Hamas.The Israeli counterattack could go two ways: symbolic precision strikes against specific targets in Iran, or a more radical response including offensives aimed at depriving the Pasdaran of their strongholds along Israel’s northern and southern borders, alongside the Golan Heights. The ultimate goal would be to stop the far-reaching Iranian campaign of destabilization and destruction that has afflicted many Middle Eastern countries for years.