Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on September 22-23/2023
Al-Rahi: Lebanon was 'Switzerland of the East' during Christian influence
Berri confirms Doha's initiative, Qatari minister to visit in October
Report: US, KSA end French role, reject Franjieh's election
Geagea says unacceptable for authorities to say Hasrouni probe can't continue
Hamas cadre arrested in Sidon over spying for Israel
Report: Bou Saab preparing petition to dissolve parliament
Mikati meets US Ambassador at the Grand Serail: The attack on the embassy is an attack on Lebanon’s sovereignty and security
Mikati condemns shooting outside US Embassy
Jumblat slams last 5-nation group meeting, asks what KSA wants
What's behind Jumblat's unusual attack on KSA?
Lebanon's dilemma: Balancing refugee aid and national identity
George Hobeika shines again with Beyoncé's stunning dress
MP Sami Gemayel confirms his support for constructing the Kleiat Airport
Bou Saab discusses presidential elections with the French Ambassador to Lebanon
US embassy in Lebanon ‘not intimidated’ by shots fired toward it — ambassador
Lebanese Forces delegation visits US Embassy, condemns attack on it
Tenenti to NNA: UNIFIL’s MTF supports Lebanese Navy hailing ships entering Lebanese waters, training on different aspects of maritime security
Kataeb Party presents policy solutions addressing Syrian presence in Lebanon
Former United Nations Ambassador Amal Mudallali: UN must reform to remain relevant/Ray Hanania/Arab News/September 22/2023
Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah, Lebanon and Syria (September 15-21, 2023)/The Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center/September 22/2023
Treasury sanctions Hezbollah’s network in Colombia, but what took so long?/Emanuele Ottolenghi/Washington Examiner/September 22/2023|

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on September 22-23/2023
Netanyahu tells UN that Israel is 'at the cusp' of a historic agreement with Saudi Arabia
Letter to President Biden/Letter on Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’s request for uranium enrichment
Motorbike-Riding Terrorists Killed in Strike Near Golan
Israel fires on Syria targets from occupied Golan'
Iran's Quds force chief oversees joint military drill in Syria
Israeli drone hits Gaza as violent protests rage
Communication outage hits flood-stricken Derna, further complicating search efforts
One dead, 15 injured in strike on Ukraine's Kremenchuk
Canada announces C$650 mln aid to Ukraine during Zelenskiy's visit
Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky visits Canada for first time since Russia invasion
Canada's cyber intelligence agency warns of potential attacks during Zelenskyy's visit
Ukraine launches missile strike on headquarters of Russia's Black Sea Fleet
China announces 'strategic partnership' with Syria
Kim sets forth steps to boost Russia ties as US, Seoul warn about weapons deals
Russia's Black Sea Fleet has taken hits, but intel says military leaders may be more worried about an airbase attack near Moscow
Zelensky delivers upbeat message to US lawmakers on war progress as some Republican support softens
Anti-govt protesters block streets in Armenia capital
Armenia ready for 40,000 families after Nagorno-Karabakh surrender
Nagorno-Karabakh separatists say negotiating their troops’ withdrawal
Somalia requests withdrawal postponement of African Union force
Three dead in Iran dust storms.

Titles For The Latest English LCCC  analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on September 22-23/2023
Artsakh is Armenia/Charles Elias Chartouni/September 22/2023
The US-Iran Deal: A Diplomatic Triumph or a Dangerous Precedent/Zoya Fakhoury/Amer Fakhoury Foundation/September 22/2023
Why it’s important to continue our support for Ukraine/Russian victory in Ukraine would give comfort and confidence to those who hate America/Michael R. Pompeo/Aaron MacLean/Fox News/September 22, 2023
A Thousand Years of Jihad on the Oldest Christian Nation/Raymond Ibrahim/September 22/2023
New Documentary Exposes the Shady Origins of the Persecution of Christians in Syria/Raymond Ibrahim/September 21/2023
Nagorno-Karabakh – Kremlin Has Lost Its Monopoly On Managing The Affairs Of Post-Soviet States/Dr. Vladislav L. Inozemtsev/MEMRU/September 22/2023
Turkey: An Air Force Without Wings/Burak Bekdil/Gatestone Institute./September 22, 2023
Question: “What does it mean that humanity is made in the image of God?”/GotQuestions.org./September 22, 2023
The Islamic State’s Shadow Governance in Eastern Syria Since the Fall of Baghuz/Dr. Aaron Y. Zelin and Dr. Devorah Margolin/Combating Terrorism Center/September 22/2023

Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on September 22-23/2023
Al-Rahi: Lebanon was 'Switzerland of the East' during Christian influence
Naharnet/September 22/2023
Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi re-iterated Friday his call for Lebanon's neutrality, during his visit to Australia. Al-Rahi expressed his fear for Lebanon's "positive" neutrality, "which is at the core of its identity and would keep it away from regional and international conflicts." "During the Christians' influence, Lebanon was the Switzerland of the Middle East," al-Rahi said, criticizing those who are obstructing the election of a "Maronite president." "No force can stop them," al-Rahi said. "I don't know why (they are obstructing the vote) since there are two candidates.”

Berri confirms Doha's initiative, Qatari minister to visit in October
Naharnet/September 22/2023
A Qatari envoy has arrived in Lebanon to help break the presidential impasse, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri confirmed to Nidaa al-Watan newspaper, in remarks published Friday. "It is true that there is a Qatari initiative," Berri assured, adding that the envoy has not talked to him yet. Berri, who had proposed a seven-day dialogue, supported by France, criticized the disagreements between the five-nation group on Lebanon. He said there is no progress regarding his dialogue initiative, after the Lebanese Forces and the Free Patriotic Movement rejected it. Al-Jadeed TV channel had reported Thursday night that Qatari envoy Abou Fahad Jassem Al-Thani has arrived in Lebanon and started to prepare for a visit by Qatari Minister of State at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Mohammed bin Abdulaziz al-Khulaifi. Al-Khulaifi will arrive in Lebanon in October to resume the Qatari initiative, al-Jadeed said, adding that the Qatari mission is coordinated with Saudi Arabia and the U.S. Before Qatar, France had initiated last July a "good offices mission", in coordination with the United States, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Egypt, to help facilitate the emergence of a consensual solution that will end the institutional crisis.
Opposition forces, including the Lebanese Forces, refused Berri and the French envoy's call for dialogue to agree on a president, preferring to rely on the democratic process.
The envoy, Jean-Yves Le Drian, proposed to nominate a third candidate to break the impasse, but Lebanese Forces leader said that as long as Hezbollah is refusing a third candidate, the opposition will try to gather more votes for its candidate, former minister Jihad Azour.

Report: US, KSA end French role, reject Franjieh's election
Naharnet/September 22/2023
Washington, Riyadh and Doha have voiced a unified stance rejecting the continuation of the French efforts in the Lebanese presidential file, a media report said. They have “refused to grant Paris any additional timeframe, considering the settlement plan it had proposed and worked on as finished,” al-Akhbar newspaper reported on Friday.“The U.S. and Saudi sides have announced a notable stance by rejecting the nomination of Marada Movement chief Suleiman Franjieh and prominent U.S. officials have told their French counterparts that Washington wants Army chief Gen. Joseph Aoun as president,” the daily quoted a political leader as saying. “Saudi Arabia meanwhile said that the army commander is not its candidate but that it does not oppose his election. It also said that it rejects the settlement calling for Franjieh’s election that the French had proposed as a result of negotiations they held with Hezbollah,” the political leader added.

Geagea says unacceptable for authorities to say Hasrouni probe can't continue
Naharnet/September 22/2023
Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea on Friday stressed that it is “unacceptable” for authorities to say that they have been prevented from continuing the probe into the abduction and killing of LF member Elias Hasrouni. Addressing caretaker PM Najib Mikati, caretaker Interior Minister Bassam Mawlawi, caretaker Justice Minister Henri Khoury and State Prosecutor Ghassan Oueidat, Geagea said the LF has repeatedly asked security agencies about the progress of the investigation. “We have received a single answer, which is that security agencies can no longer move forward with the investigation because they are being prevented from doing so,” Geagea added. “This is unacceptable in all standards. We know that we are living under a corrupt state controlled by Hezbollah, but it is totally rejected for things to reach the extent of blocking a probe into the assassination of a Lebanese citizen,” the LF leader went on to say. He accordingly called on Mikati, Mawlawi, Khoury, Oueidat and the investigative judges to “shoulder their responsibilities and ask security agencies to continue the probe until the end” so that “the truth can be unveiled and justice can be fulfilled.”

Hamas cadre arrested in Sidon over spying for Israel
Naharnet/September 22/2023
Hamas member Khalil Abou Maazeh has been arrested in Sidon by the Internal Security Forces Intelligence Branch on suspicion of collaborating with Israel, a media report said. “He told interrogators that he had worked in the engineering unit of the Qassam Brigades in northern Gaza before totally becoming a member of Hamas’ military wing and establishing ties within and outside the movement. He added that years ago Israel’s intelligence services had managed to recruit him for money,” al-Akhbar newspaper reported on Friday. “The investigations revealed that Abou Maazeh had relations with Qassam Brigades engineers who worked in labs for developing weapons for the Palestinian resistance, including Hamza Shaheen, a bomb technician who was killed in a mysterious blast in a mosque in the al-Bourj al-Shamali camp on December 10, 2021. It later turned out that the explosion was caused by a sabotage operation carried out by Israel’s spies,” the daily added. The investigations also revealed that the detainee had later worked with Hamas’ West Bank division and had ties to Hamas’ armed groups in the West Bank, al-Akhbar said, adding that Abou Maazeh “played a role in exposing a number of resistance cells in Palestine.”“While in Beirut, Israel tasked him with monitoring the Hamas militants who leave the West Bank or the Gaza Strip for Lebanon,” the daily added.

Report: Bou Saab preparing petition to dissolve parliament
Naharnet/September 22/2023
Deputy Speaker Elias Bou Saab is preparing a parliamentary petition to dissolve parliament as an exit from the country’s presidential crisis, Lebanese MPs told Kuwait’s al-Anbaa newspaper in remarks published Friday. Bou Saab had months ago proposed early parliamentary elections as a way out of the deadlock. Parliamentary sources told the daily that the opposition and Change MPs would “reject this proposal, because perhaps they would be the biggest loser in any new elections.” Moreover, “the Free Patriotic Movement, whose bloc comprises eight members who won with Hezbollah’s votes, will be obliged to offer concessions to the party to maintain its significant bloc,” the sources said. As for the Shiite Duo, it might regain the seats it lost in the Sidon-Jezzine area and in the Marjeyoun-Hasbaya region and might also win seats in other districts, the sources added.
A parliamentary petition must be submitted in writing and, according to the constitution, requires the signatures of ten MPs. It would eventually need the approval of two thirds of parliament’s members, after which the parliament speaker informs Cabinet of the resolution. It also needs to be passed in Cabinet with two thirds of the votes.

Mikati meets US Ambassador at the Grand Serail: The attack on the embassy is an attack on Lebanon’s sovereignty and security
NNA/September 22/2023
Caretaker Prime Minister, Najib Mikati, on Friday renewed his condemnation of the attack on the US embassy in Lebanon, stressing that "the security services are intensifying their investigations to uncover the circumstances of the attack and those involved in it."Caretaker Premier Mikati said during his meeting with US Ambassador to Lebanon,Dorothy Shea, this afternoon at the Grand Serail: “We express our absolute rejection of attacks on diplomatic missions and we consider the attack on the American embassy an attack on Lebanon’s sovereignty and security.”
Following the meeting, Ambassador Shea said: "Good afternoon. I would just like to say a quick word having just met with His Excellency Najib Mikati. I want to acknowledge and welcome the statements of solidarity that have come from the country's political leaders, including His Excellency himself, Mr. Mikati, but also from political leaders across the spectrum, and political parties, and other key security partners. This means a lot to us at the U.S. embassy, and we know that the authorities are investigating this incident, whereby a gunman fired shots toward the U.S. embassy the other night. We appreciate the commitment that our security partners have told us -- and the political leaders of this country -- that they will spare no effort in investigating this incident, so that they can track down the perpetrator and hold him to account. And please know that we at the U.S. embassy are not intimidated by this incident, and our security protocols are very strong and our partnerships are ironclad. We are continuing normal business operations at the embassy, and it was in that spirit, too, that I just had a very robust exchange of views with the Prime Minister. We discussed his meetings at the United Nations General Assembly, including with leaders from my own country, but also in the General Assembly itself. We discussed the political impasse here in Lebanon, as well as the economic situation. I always welcome the chance to have this kind of exchange of views, and we both believe that the time is now, the situation is urgent, and we need to take action to get the decisions made and the people in the offices that need to be there, so that these long-overdue reforms can finally be enacted and implemented, and we can get the Lebanese economy back on track. Thank you."

Mikati condemns shooting outside US Embassy
Associated Press/September 22/2023
Lebanese security agencies are investigating a late-night shooting outside the heavily fortified U.S. Embassy just north of Beirut. No one was hurt in the small-arms fire.
The shots erupted near the entrance to the embassy compound in Beirut's northeastern suburb of Awkar on Wednesday night. No one claimed responsibility for the shooting and the motives behind it were not known. After the shooting, the Lebanese army took measures and launched the investigation, including analyzing security camera footage from the area, a Lebanese official said, speaking on condition of anonymity in line with regulations. Lebanese military police marked at least five bullet holes in the wall next to the embassy entrance. Heavier-than-usual security measures were in effect, but the road leading to the embassy was not closed. "There were no injuries, and our facility is safe," U.S. Embassy spokesperson Jake Nelson said. "We are in close contact with host country law enforcement authorities." The head of Lebanon's caretaker government and its foreign minister condemned the shooting from New York, where they are attending the U.N. General Assembly. Prime Minister Najib Mikati called the heads of Lebanese security agencies and asked them to pursue those behind the shooting and publicly reveal the results of their investigation, his office said. Foreign Minister Abdallah Bouhabib called U.S. Ambassador Dorothy Shea to reassure her that Lebanon is committed to protecting diplomatic missions, the state-run National News agency reported. Lebanon has a long history of attacks against Americans. The deadliest of the attacks occurred in October 1983, when a suicide truck bomber drove into a four-story building, killing 241 American service members at the U.S. Marine barracks at the Beirut airport. Earlier that year, on April 18, 1983, a bombing attack on the U.S. Embassy in Beirut killed 63 people, including at least 17 Americans. Top CIA officials were among those who died. U.S. officials blamed the Iran-backed Lebanese militant group Hezbollah. After that attack, the embassy was moved from central Beirut to the Christian suburb of Awkar, north of the Lebanese capital. On Sept. 20, 1984, a suicide bomber struck the embassy compound in Awkar, killing himself and 14 others, prompting the embassy to close. The United States withdrew all diplomats from Beirut in September 1989 and did not reopen its embassy until 1991. In 2008, an explosion targeted a U.S. Embassy vehicle in northern Beirut, killing at least three Lebanese who happened to be near the car and wounding its Lebanese driver. An American passerby was also wounded. In 1976, U.S. Ambassador Francis E. Meloy Jr. and an aide, Robert O. Waring, were abducted and killed in Beirut. In 1984, William Buckley, the CIA station chief in Beirut, was abducted and killed by the Iran-backed Islamic Jihad group.

Jumblat slams last 5-nation group meeting, asks what KSA wants
Naharnet/September 22/2023
Former Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblat was not pleased by the result of the latest 5-nation group meeting on Lebanon in New York. "Some are playing with the Lebanese," Jumblat told L'Orient-Le Jour newspaper, a day after the meeting. The group -- which comprises the U.S., France, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Egypt -- had convened Tuesday at the U.N. headquarters in New York but failed to issue a statement because of disagreements between its members. "The quintet has become a quartet," Jumblat said, as he accused "some members" of the group of "sabotaging" and "marginalizing" French envoy to Lebanon Jean-Yves Le Drian's mission. "It's a leap into the unknown," Jumblat charged, adding that the presidential crisis has returned to square one. The former PSP leader called on Saudi Arabia to "explain what it wants." "Things have reached a blatant and unacceptable level," he said. "This would fuel the ridiculous theories of those who want vacuum."Le Drian had visited Lebanon in September to resume his initiative to break the presidential deadlock, as he hoped that a dialogue proposed by Speaker Nabih Berri would pave the way for a solution. Berri's dialogue was rejected by opposition forces -- the Lebanese Forces, the Kataeb party, the Tajaddod bloc, and some Change MPs -- who have refused to take part in talks to agree on a president before proceeding with a vote, preferring to rely on the democratic process. Divided over dialogue, the Lebanese pinned hopes on the five-nation group meeting but disagreements between the U.S. and France in the five-nation committee Tuesday marred the meeting, according to Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad. Pro-Hezbollah al-Akhbar newspaper also reported a "U.S. objection to the French management of the Lebanese file," adding that Washington has demanded a specific timeframe for Le Drian’s mission. It said that the French-Saudi rapprochement, that Le Drian and Saudi Ambassador to Lebanon Walid Bukhari were keen to highlight, did not receive support from the Americans, who are clearly pushing for assigning the mission to Qatar.

What's behind Jumblat's unusual attack on KSA?
Naharnet/September 22/2023
Ex-MP Walid Jumblat’s latest unusual attack on Saudi Arabia came because he knew months ago that its ambassador in Beirut, Walid Bukhari, was behind the stances and “escalation” of some political forces, informed sources said. Jumbat knew that Bukhari “had been asking the Lebanese Forces and the Kataeb Party to escalate against any initiative, as happened with the calls for dialogue that were made by (French envoy Jean-Yves) Le Drian and Speaker (Nabih) Berri,” the sources told al-Akhbar newspaper in remarks published Friday. “Jumblat and other political forces knew that the French initiative has been torpedoed and that Paris is unable to convince the rest of the five-nation group’s members that it should continue its role,” the sources added. “Le Drian’s return next month will be ceremonial and will be followed by pressure for elections based on the latest Doha statement, which means that the country will witness a new wave of escalation,” the sources went on to say. In an interview published Wednesday in French-language daily L'Orient-Le Jour, Jumblat called on Saudi Arabia to "explain what it wants." "Things have reached a blatant and unacceptable level," he lamented. "This would fuel the ridiculous theories of those who want vacuum," he added, accusing Riyadh and other members of the five-nation group on Lebanon of "sabotaging" and "marginalizing" Le Drian's mission.

Lebanon's dilemma: Balancing refugee aid and national identity
LBCI/September 22/2023
The testimony of housing in the name of a displaced Syrian has caused turmoil in political groups and on social media. The issuance of the testimony was far from ordinary, not just due to its wide distribution amid the worsening Syrian displacement crisis but also because it was issued by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). Some viewed this release as a violation of Lebanese sovereignty since it didn't stem from an official Lebanese authority, like the Mukhtar, but rather from the UNHCR, which provides housing testimonies to foreigners on Lebanese territory.
While these housing testimonies have prompted political condemnation, the UNHCR clarified that these testimonies have been issued since 2016 in agreement with the Lebanese government to obtain legal residence and access essential services such as enrolling students in schools.
However, there are also concerns that these testimonies may become permanent and serve as an introduction to integrating Syrians into Lebanese society. Apart from the existential fear accompanying the Lebanese due to successive waves of displacement, sources from the General Security told LBCI that the more precise issue is the designation of the testimony as a "presence" rather than a "housing" testimony.  Furthermore, this type of testimony is granted to displaced individuals registered with the United Nations between 2011 and 2015 and recognized by Lebanon when presented to the General Security, along with the information it contains. This document allows refugees to obtain an annual residence permit after registering their information with General Security and enables them to specify their place of presence. As for the reason for issuing the testimony by the UNHCR rather than the Mukhtars, for example, General Security sources confirmed that these individuals are under the care of UNHCR, which has not shared data with the Lebanese state. Therefore, this procedure was agreed upon based on a memorandum of understanding signed with the Lebanese government, regulating the presence of Syrians seeking employment in specific seasonal sectors, such as construction, agriculture, and sanitation. Residence permits are revoked for anyone discovered by General Security to have returned to Syria, even once, which removes their refugee status. However, the problem lies elsewhere, as those who requested temporary residence permits do not exceed one hundred thousand, while the rest contribute to the increase in illegal labor and random Syrian displacement.

George Hobeika shines again with Beyoncé's stunning dress
LBCI/September 22/2023
For the third time, Lebanese designer George Hobeika's star shines on the global stage for his breathtaking dress worn by international superstar Beyoncé during her recent " Renaissance " tour. The globally acclaimed artist graced the stage in a creative design from George Hobeika's Fall 2023 collection. Beyoncé's magnificent dress, adorned in light blue, featured turquoise and silver Swarovski crystals, with feathers cascading from the bottom of the gown. A matching headpiece complemented the design in terms of color and fabric.
George Hobeika's official Instagram page shared photos of the global icon in the stunning dress, along with the following comment: "Beyoncé, an epitome of timeless elegance, shines on stage in one of George Hobeika's exquisite fashion creations for Fall 2023."

MP Sami Gemayel confirms his support for constructing the Kleiat Airport
LBCI/September 22/2023
The Kataeb Party leader, MP Sami Gemayel, confirmed his support for the construction project of Kleiat - Rene Moawad Airport as soon as possible to benefit the people of Akkar. This project aims to alleviate congestion at Beirut Airport and establish true decentralization. Regarding the presidential file, Gemayel stressed the need to create genuine balance in the country, considering it the mandatory path to achieve a genuine partnership among the Lebanese. "Lebanon is currently in an unconstitutional state, and we are facing a non-institutional reality, and the democratic game has been violated," Gemayel said. On the other hand, MP Walid Baarini emphasized that opening Kleiat Airport has become a national demand, in addition to other airports. As for the presidential crisis, Baarini affirmed the need to reach a common ground with parliamentary blocs.
He pointed out that a specific party must extend its hand to rescue the country, overcome the crisis, and ensure institutional work, especially with the existential threat posed by the Syrian displacement.

Bou Saab discusses presidential elections with the French Ambassador to Lebanon
LBCI/September 22/2023
In his office at the Parliament on Friday, Deputy Parliament Speaker Elias Bou Saab held discussions with the French Ambassador to Lebanon, Hervé Magro, accompanied by the First Counselor Jean-François Guillaume, regarding the presidential elections and the mission of Jean-Yves Le Drian and the current stage of the process. Several ideas were presented to facilitate French efforts to ensure the success of this mission and the election of a President for the Republic.

US embassy in Lebanon ‘not intimidated’ by shots fired toward it — ambassador
Reuters/September 22, 2023
BEIRUT: US ambassador to Lebanon Dorothy Shea on Friday said the embassy was “not intimidated” by a gunman’s shots toward its entrance earlier this week and that Lebanese authorities were investigating the incident. Late Wednesday, shots were fired near the US embassy north of Beirut. Embassy spokesperson Jake Nelson said no one had been hurt and normal business operations were ongoing. “We know that authorities are investigating this incident, whereby a gunman fired shots toward the US embassy the other night,” US ambassador Dorothy Shea said on Friday after meeting Lebanon’s caretaker prime minister, Najib Mikati. “Please know that we at the US embassy are not intimidated by this incident, and our security protocols are very strong and our partnerships are ironclad,” she said. Mikati also condemned what he described as an “attack on the American embassy.” There was no claim of responsibility for the gunfire and authorities have not provided details on the investigation. The highly secured US embassy lies north of Beirut in the town of Awkar. Security incidents around it are rare. The embassy moved there from Beirut following a suicide attack in 1983 which killed more than 60 people.

Lebanese Forces delegation visits US Embassy, condemns attack on it
NNA/September 22/2023
Lebanese Forces Party leader, Samir Geagea, on Friday dispatched a delegation, which included MPs Ghassan Hasbani and Razi Al-Hajj, as well as LF Foreign Relations official Mark Saad, to the US Embassy in Awkar. The delegation met the Embassy staff, inspected the damage, and condemned “the recent attack on the embassy headquarters.”The delegation conveyed a message from Geagea stressing the need for the security forces to expedite the unveiling of the perpetrators in a way that enhances the country's security and stability and ensures the safety of those on its territory."

Tenenti to NNA: UNIFIL’s MTF supports Lebanese Navy hailing ships entering Lebanese waters, training on different aspects of maritime security
NNA/September 22/2023
In recent media reports and interviews, former Lebanese Defence Minister Yacoub al-Sarraf spoke about the issue of the Rhousos ship and the role of UNIFIL’s Maritime Task Force (MTF) MTF in relation to its capability of conducting inspections on board of vessels entering Lebanese territorial waters.
So, what is exactly the role of UNIFIL’s MTF? Responding to this question, UNIFIL Spokesperson Andrea Tenenti told the National News Agency (NNA) that “UNIFIL does not comment on media reports, but let me clarify the role of UNIFIL MTF and their activities in support of the Lebanese Navy.”
“UNIFIL’s Maritime Task Force (MTF) will mark the 17th anniversary of its establishment on 15 October. Since 2006, it has supported the Lebanese Navy in several specific responsibilities: monitoring Lebanon’s territorial waters, securing the coastline, and preventing the unauthorized entry of weapons by sea,” he said. “The MTF supports the Lebanese Navy mainly by hailing ships entering Lebanese waters. Hailing is a process of contacting incoming ships to verify information that the ship has provided about itself and its cargo to public maritime databases. The Lebanese Navy also hails ships, as the role of UNIFIL’s MTF is one of support,” Tenenti calrified. “Further action might be needed after a ship is hailed, for example if some of the information is missing or doesn’t match what is listed in the public database, or if the ship does not appear on the list of vessels expected to transit, enter, or leave Lebanese territorial waters on a given day. In that case, ship may be referred to Lebanese authorities for inspection. Inspection and boarding could be carried out by the Lebanese Navy, other security agencies, or customs officials, but this is up to the Lebanese authorities to decide. Lebanon is a sovereign country and as such only the Lebanese authorities can decide whether to carry out an inspection or allow a ship to dock at a Lebanese port. The MTF is ready to support in these tasks, but the Lebanese authorities have never asked and so the MTF has never physically inspected a ship. The MTF does receive some information about the results of any inspection but does not get information about the nature of any materials found unless there is a violation of Security Council Resolution 1701,” he noted. The UNIFIL spokesperson pointed out that “UNIFIL MTF also supports the Lebanese Navy in training on different aspects of maritime security. This training is done at the request of the Lebanese Navy, according to what they need.” “The eventual goal under Resolution 1701 is that the Lebanese Navy will eventually be able to assume all responsibilities for maritime security on their own, without support from UNIFIL’s MTF. In 2022, the MTF handed over the Maritime Interdiction Operations Command to the Lebanese Navy, which now decides which ships should be referred to Lebanese authorities for inspection,” Tenenti concluded.

Kataeb Party presents policy solutions addressing Syrian presence in Lebanon
NNA/September 22/2023
Kataeb Party presented on Thursday policy solutions addressing the Syrian presence in Lebanon during a conference held at the Kataeb Headquarters in Saifi.
Kataeb Leader Samy Gemayel emphasized that Lebanon had moved from the 19th to the 3rd rank in population density, saying that people were concerned about Lebanon's future due to the waves of displacement.
Gemayel highlighted that amidst the deepening economic crisis, infrastructure problems, political and social issues, and various crises, the issue of displacement had compounded the difficulties faced by Lebanon.
"We see a youth population entering Lebanon that has raised significant concerns, and as stakeholders deeply invested in this issue, we proposed a set of solutions to address the displacement catastrophe that threatens the future of Lebanon and its people,” he stated.
"We have heard lectures from many countries that give us lessons in human rights, yet they themselves have set quotas and refused to accept refugees, while we, regardless of our reservations about the Lebanese government's policies, have received over two million refugees,” he explained.
"As Lebanese citizens, we have borne the crisis without resorting to any form of violence, meaning that the Lebanese people of all sects bear the burden of refugees because they feel a humanitarian concern,” he stressed.
Gemayel emphasized that the circumstances in 2023 were no longer the same as in previous years, with combat operations having ceased in over 80% of Syrian territory, making the possibility of return feasible.
“Today, the primary cause of displacement was the economic situation in Syria. Most Syrians had become economic refugees and preferred to stay in Lebanon because the economic situation there was better than in Syria. Consequently, the refugee status could not be applied, which led to a shift in their approach to the Syrian issue," he noted.
He indicated that Kataeb Party's proposals did not require amendments to laws or exceptional decisions or the convening of parliament, saying that they can be implemented by the caretaker government.
Gemayel then presented the policy solutions proposed by the Kataeb Party, which are as follows:
Establish a Refugee Status Determination Mechanism
The Lebanese Kataeb Party advocates for the prompt establishment of a fair and efficient Refugee Status Determination (RSD) mechanism, especially since a large portion of them have become economic migrants. This will ensure accurate data on the actual number of Syrians, their places of origin, and the genuine reasons for each individual's presence in the country. It would enable the Lebanese government and relevant organizations to assess the individual situations of Syrians and determine those who are still facing threats to their lives and in need for protection, as well as those who are economic migrants. This RSD process will facilitate informed decision-making about the best durable solution for each case and promote transparency and compliance with international and national laws.
Facilitate the Return to Safe Zones in Syria
Conditions are now met for the voluntary and dignified return of Syrians to safe areas in Syria. Therefore, the Lebanese Kataeb Party urges the government of Lebanon to collaborate with all relevant stakeholders to identify safe zones within Syria. Subsequently, the government should expedite the gradual return process for Syrians to areas where their return can be considered safe.
Revoke Asylum Status from Syrians Engaging in Back-And-Forth Travel to Syria and Deport Those Who Entered Illegally
The Lebanese Kataeb Party calls on the Lebanese security authorities to revoke the asylum status of Syrians who frequently travel back and forth to Syria and implement strict re-entry restrictions in accordance with Lebanese laws. The Lebanese Kataeb Party also demands that the Lebanese government review the treaty of brotherhood, cooperation and coordination between Lebanon and Syria along with` its subsequent agreements that exempt Syrian passport holders from obtaining an entry visa to Lebanese territories.
Furthermore, any Syrian who entered or re-entered Lebanon illegally should be subject to deportation. The Lebanese authorities shall exempt them from applicable fees and fines to facilitate their permanent departure. These measures aim to address security concerns and prevent the abuse of the protection conditions provided to them. By enforcing these restrictions, Lebanon seeks to maintain the integrity of its borders and manage the situation of Syrians more effectively.
Close Illegal Border Crossings with Syria
The Lebanese Kataeb Party urges the Lebanese Army to deploy along the entire borders with Syria and take immediate action to close all illegal border crossings and reinforce checkpoints on unauthorized routes used by Syrians, especially in the recent surge of illegal migration. These measures should be implemented in cooperation with the relevant municipalities and efforts should be intensified to combat the activities of all networks smuggling Syrians in border areas and prosecute them before the competent courts.
Provide Financial Incentives and Humanitarian Assistance to Returnees
The Lebanese Kataeb Party calls on the international community to provide financial incentives equivalent to one year’s worth of payments, delivered as a one-time lumpsum, to encourage Syrians to return home. These incentives and humanitarian aid are intended to contribute to the provision of essential services and create opportunities for livelihood, thereby fostering the sustainable return of Syrians.
Resettlement to Third Countries
The Lebanese Kataeb Party urges the government of Lebanon to initiate diplomatic efforts with regional and international partners to secure additional resettlement opportunities for refugees in third countries willing to accept them, either temporarily or permanently. This solution should prioritize individuals who cannot safely return to their country of origin due to the risk posed to their lives.
Deport Convicts
The Lebanese Kataeb Party calls on the Lebanese Ministry of Justice to implement the Lebanese and international laws and deport all Syrians who have been convicted of committing serious crimes in Lebanon.
Birth registration for Syrian Residing in Lebanon
To address the pressing issue of undocumented births among Syrians in Lebanon, The Lebanese Kataeb Party calls on the government of Lebanon to mandate the immediate registration of all Syrian newborns. Having accurate records of births safeguards their rights and facilitates their eventual repatriation to their home country or assists in the process of seeking asylum in third countries.
Establish Camps on the Lebanese- Syrian Borders
The Lebanese Kataeb Party proposes the establishment of well-regulated camps along the Lebanese-Syrian borders for hosting Syrians while they await their return or resettlement. These camps shall be managed by the UNHCR under the authority of Lebanese institutions in order to ensure the provision humanitarian assistance and essential services to Syrians, including food, shelter, education, and healthcare.
Strict Implementation of Lebanese Laws
The Lebanese Kataeb Party urges the government to prioritize the strict enforcement of Lebanese laws, including labor laws, municipal regulations, and the penal code. This approach is essential to effectively address issues related to the informal labor market, unlawful competition, and security concerns.

Former United Nations Ambassador Amal Mudallali: UN must reform to remain relevant,
Ray Hanania/Arab News/September 22/2023
CHICAGO: Lebanon’s former United Nations Ambassador Amal Mudallali said there is growing pressure to reform the 78-year-old international body in order to force its five founding members to share power with the rest of the world and keep the organization relevant.
The UN was founded in 1945 and consists of two major bodies: the UN Security Council, which includes five founding members with the power to veto any action or proposal; and the General Assembly, which has grown from 51 members to 193 today, and can adopt resolutions with moral authority, but no enforcement. Mudallali acknowledged that although the UN has had some successes, failure to reform combined with growing inequity between nations of the “global north” and “global south” has resulted in a rise in competing but narrowly focused international coalitions such as BRICS, which was founded in 2010, but in recent years has become much more influential. “If you look at the last 78 years, the world averted a big war, a third world war. And I think a lot of it has a lot to do with the fact that all these big powers and small powers and all these countries sit together there and work on trying to find solutions, and that is very important. It avoided a nuclear war. It created a big, huge system of development, helping poor countries around the world everywhere,” Mudallali said during the taping of “The Ray Hanania Radio Show” on Wednesday (Sept. 20, 2023).
“The problem is that the system that was created after the Second World War has not been reformed. It has been so static. There has been no change, no reform. Because the big powers who are now, and they gave themselves more power by creating the Security Council and they have veto power. They are the ones who control whether there is any change or not. The big powers are the ones who can do it.”Mudallali added: “There is a new movement in the United Nations and the General Assembly to challenge the veto because the veto is preventing the Security Council from any decisions that are very important, and central to peace and security, especially when you need it when you have like the war in Ukraine. The Security Council has been gridlocked and there has been no resolution on Ukraine.”
Failure to reform has resulted in many nations contesting the old power structure that the UN of 1945 represented compared with the changing world balance today, with the rise of small groups of independent member-nation organizations, such as BRICS and the G20.
“But today, as we talk, it is really an interesting General Assembly because it comes on the heels of the BRICS meeting in South Africa. It comes after the G20 meeting, where the global south is rising. Their voice is rising. There is a new narrative now. They are telling the north, as people say, that things are not going to go on as business as usual,” Mudallali said.
“We need reform and this time our life depends on it. Because the international world order that we set up in 1945 and that served the world beautifully for the last 78 years and advanced economies, social issues and prevented wars, but now is not working. Because it has to be more equitable. It has to represent the diversity, that the world has changed. Because the volume of the world economy and the power is shifting. There is a shift in dynamics from the north to the south. There is a shift in the dynamics of power, not only the economic power but the political power. People are contesting the order.”
Over the years, the world has seen the rising influence of new limited member-nation coalitions, such as BRICS and the G20, seen as competing with the UN, which is supposed to represent the interests of all nations on all issues.
Groups such as BRICS, founded in 2010 by Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, have grown significantly since the start of the Ukraine war. BRICS has raised some concerns about its intent, to “contest the international order” or “undermine the domination of certain countries” such as the US, Mudalalli said. “If BRICS’ only objective is to change the order, it means like if it is international competition with the US only, this is not going to be good for anybody. But if they are doing it because they really want to reform the system and they want to have a better way, a diversified way of doing business with everybody, I think that would be good,” said Mudallali, now a respected international affairs analyst.
“And, then, maybe you can see, hopefully you can see a constructive role they can play in the international economy and this. But it really not good for the world if it is seen or it is perceived as only a competition between the US and China, and the world is being divided now into groups. If you weaken the UN, and if you weaken the state institutions that you put there to bring peace and security and economic prosperity and stuff like that and to get the world to work together, and you go and work outside it, this is very dangerous and this is no good for world peace.”
Many “global south” nations are wondering if the UN can be inclusive to address their needs, Mudallali said, noting that the UN plan to advance 17 Sustainable Development Goals is halfway through its 10-year timeframe and has achieved only 12 to 15 percent of its stated goals.
“As long as these countries, what you call them the global south, the rest of the world — not the Security Council and the big powers — see that they have no stake at the UN, and they see there is no movement to be inclusive and be representative of the world as it is today, you are going to see a very divided world order,” Mudallali said.“You are going to have a splintering of different groups, people shopping for different alliances and things like that, because the central forum for bringing them together, to work together, is being weakened if it is not being reformed.”
The dramatic growth of debt among countries of the global south is of immediate concern, Mudallali said. But it was discouraging that the leader of only one of the Security Council’s founding members, the US, addressed the UN General Assembly this week, with the leaders of Russia, France, the UK and China absent.
Mudallali made her comments during an appearance on “The Ray Hanania Radio Show,” which is broadcast every Wednesday in Detroit on WNZK AM 690 Radio and in Washington D.C. on WDMV AM 700 radio on the US Arab Radio Network.
**You can listen to the radio show’s podcast by visiting  ArabNews.com/rayradioshow.

Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah, Lebanon and Syria (September 15-21, 2023)
The Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center/September 22/2023
This past week no unusual incidents were reported along the Israel-Lebanon border. Hezbollah-affiliated media outlets reported on works carried out by Israel in the Ghajar region. The exposure of Iran and Hezbollah’s secret airport in south Lebanon continued to make headlines. Hezbollah has yet to address the issue directly.
Preliminary details have been published about the plan of Amos Hochstein, the American president’s coordinator for energy security, to resolve the issue of the land border between Israel and Lebanon.
Tensions continue in the Ein al-Hilweh refugee camp. Several meetings were held in an effort to calm the situation.
So far, there has been no solution to the presidential crisis in Lebanon nor is one on the horizon. Hezbollah and Amal continue to promote the candidacy of Suleiman Frangieh.
South Lebanon
This week, no unusual incidents were reported on the Israel-Lebanon border.
Hezbollah-affiliated media outlets reported on IDF activity near the village of Ghajar. They claimed Israel was carrying out activities in “occupied” Lebanese territory and reported on the presence of UNIFIL and Lebanese army forces in the area.
The daily al-Jarida reported that on September 19, 2023, seven Israeli bulldozers accompanied by five Merkava tanks initiated earthworks. According to the newspaper, the IDF is paving a road for military needs in the Shebaa Farm (Har Dov) area. It was also reported that UNIFIL and Lebanese army forces were deployed in the region (al-Jarida, September 20, 2023; (https://www.vdlnews.com, September 19, 2023)
Ali Shoeib, a correspondent for the Hezbollah-affiliated daily al-Akhbar, reported it was the first time Israel carried out work in the “occupied” area. He claimed Israel’s objective was to redefine the line of withdrawal and cut off the “occupied” area from the Lebanese Sheba Farms (Ali Shoeib’s Twitter account, September 19, 2023). Later, he claimed that Israel was trying to change the terrain of the Shebaa Farms, an area which “belongs to local Lebanese residents.” He noted that the commander of the IDF’s 91st Division and the commander of the 769th Brigade supervised “the beginning of the act of aggression” (Ali Shoeib’s Twitter account, September 20, 2023).
Qassem Hashem, a member of the Lebanese Parliament, claimed Israel’s activity in the area was a “new aggression” contradicting all international norms which do not allow an “occupying power” to change the features of occupied territories. He added that the international community was responsible for putting an end to the “violations and attacks.” He called on Lebanon’s foreign minister, who is currently at the UN General Assembly in New York, to raise the issue for discussion (al-Nashra, September 21, 2023).
Exposing the Iranian airport in south Lebanon and criticizing Hezbollah
The information Israel revealed about the existence of an Iranian airport in south Lebanon continues to occupy the Lebanese media. There was also criticism of Hezbollah, which has so far avoided directly addressing the issue. Some of Hezbollah’s opponents took advantage of the situation to attack the organization within the framework of the political struggles of the country’s presidential crisis. The main points of the media reports were the following:
Local sources said that despite the silence of Hezbollah and Lebanese politicians, the airport in the al-Jabour area of the Jezzine governate did, in fact, exist. According to the sources, it did not matter how much debate the issue caused, Hezbollah would never give up the airport (Lebanon Debate, September 19, 2023).
Al-Hadath TV broadcast a report which relied heavily on Israeli media. The channel cited political sources who described Lebanon as “Hezbollah hostage, ” adding that Hezbollah used Lebanon as a bargaining chip whenever there was a conflict between Iran and Israel. The channel quoted a former Hezbollah official who claimed that the existence of the airport was known to local residents. He said Hezbollah restricted freedom of movement near the airport is and entrance to the surrounding area was forbidden. He also noted that the residents feared for their homes, should there be a military confrontation with Israel. The findings of the al-Hadath investigation also noted the existence a Hezbollah training camp near the airport, and stated explosions had been heard and a large number of tunnels had been dug in the region (al-Hadath, September 19, 2023).
Elie Mahfoud, leader of the Change Movement Party, after meeting with Samir Geagea, leader of the Lebanese Forces Party, stated that Lebanon was the only country ruled by a cleric [Hassan Nasrallah] who obeyed the orders of a foreign country [Iran], and the cleric ran an armed organization [Hezbollah] working to construct an airport (@lebanosnews Twitter account September 20, 2023).
The @Lord Twitter account shared a video recorded by Sentinel Hub, an engine for processing satellite data, showing the construction stages of the airport between October 11, 2022 and the present, noting that the airport looked real. The length of the airport was reported to be 1.2 kilometers (about ¾ of a mile) and it is located near the village of Kafr Houneh in the Jezzine governorate (@Lord Twitter account, September 15, 2023).
Delineating the Israel-Lebanon land border
Philippe Abu Akl, a correspondent for the Ici Beyrouth news website, reported the talks to demark the land border between Israel and Lebanon would continue, mediated by Amos Hochstein, the US President’s coordinator for global infrastructure and energy security, who is scheduled to visit Lebanon in early October 2023. According to Abu Akel, Hochstein will inform Nabih Berri, the speaker of the Lebanese Parliament, that the Biden administration had decided to resolve the issue of the land border and UNIFIL headquarters had been informed. According to several reports, Berri assured Hochstein that an agreement could be reached quickly, similar to the agreement reached regarding the naval border, if the United States exerted pressure on Israel to respond to Lebanon’s position regarding point of contention B1 at Rosh Hanikra, which is crucially important for delineating both the naval and land borders. Abu Akel noted that Berri’s position was consistent with the US intention to settle the land border dispute by the end of the year according to the draft outline drawn up by the State Department. American sources do not rule out the possibility of a comprehensive agreement based on the borders established in 1923 by the Franco-British commission, as recognized in the 1949 armistice agreement. It was also noted that Hezbollah was drafting its own agreement for delineating the land border using the disputed border points on the Blue Line as its basis for discussion (Ici Beyrouth, September 20, 2023).
Nabih al-Barji, a political commentator who writes for the Hezbollah-affiliated al-Diyar, published an op-ed piece with anti-Semitic overtones, opposing Hochstein’s plan. According to al-Barji, it is impossible to believe Hochstein because he defined Lebanon as a “historical mistake.” Hochstein, he claimed, was also anxious about Israel, which is driven by a “biblical obsession” and “hysterical policies.” Therefore, the concluded, Hochstein’s true goal was to weaken and disarm Hezbollah (al-Diyar, September 19, 2023).
Hezbollah
Na’im Qassem, Hezbollah deputy secretary general, gave a speech at the graduation ceremony of Hezbollah’s schools in Beirut in which he claimed the period when Israel could attack the Lebanese with impunity had ended. He said that anyone who criticized Hezbollah’s military power was trying to hide his own political weakness in the [Lebanese] presidential elections. He also claimed anyone who demanded Hezbollah disarm was opening Lebanon’s door to Israeli aggression (al-Manar, September 16, 2023).
The Palestinians in Lebanon
Continuation of clashes in the Ein al-Hilweh refugee camp
Tensions continue in the Ein al-Hilweh refugee camp and apparently so far efforts to achieve calm have not borne fruit. In an attempt to bring calm, Hassan Habballah, in charge of Hezbollah’s Palestine portfolio, and a Palestinian delegation led by Azzam al-Ahmed, a member of the PLO’s Executive Committee, in charge of Palestinian affairs in Lebanon, met at the headquarters of Hezbollah’s political council y (Lebanon 24, September 19, 2023).
Ziyad al-Nakhalah, Palestinian Islamic Jihad secretary general, met with Jamil Mazher, deputy secretary-general of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, to discuss strengthening the “resistance” [terrorism] in Judea and Samaria and the events in Ein al-Hilweh, including their implications for the issue of Palestinian refugees (Ziyad al-Nakhalah’s Telegram channel, September 15, 2023).
Mahmoud Abbas, chairman of the Palestinian Authority, met with Najib Mikati, prime minister of the Lebanese interim government, on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York. They discussed Palestinian-Lebanese relations and the situation in Lebanon. Mahmoud Abbas emphasized his desire to achieve peace in the refugee camp in coordination with the Lebanese government (Wafa, September 19, 2023).
South Lebanon
Shots fired at the American embassy
On the evening of September 20, 2023, shots were fired at the United States Embassy in Beirut. Jack Nelson, embassy spokesman, said that small arms had been fired near the embassy building and there were no casualties or damage. So far, no one has claimed responsibility for the shooting. Lebanese authorities have launched an investigation (AP, September 21, 2023).
The elections for the president of Lebanon
Despite the efforts of Jean-Yves Le Drian, the French envoy, and Nabih Berri, the speaker of the Lebanese Parliament, there is no solution to the presidential crisis on the horizon.
Hezbollah and Amal are apparently still united in their support of the candidacy of Suleiman Frangieh. Muhammad Raed, a Hezbollah member of Parliament, paid a visit to Suleiman Frangieh to deliver a letter from the Hezbollah leadership, assuring him he was Hezbollah’s only candidate (al-Joumhouria, September 15, 2023). It was also reported that Suleiman Frangieh and Hassan Nasrallah had met several times and Frangieh demanded that Nasrallah consider him during attempts to reach a settlement for the presidential elections so he could “serve the national interest” (al-Jadeed TV, September 14, 2023).
General Joseph Aoun, commander of the Lebanese army, met with the members of the Lebanese journalists’ association and answered questions about the events in the Ein al-Hilweh refugee camp and the issue of the presidency. He claimed the army had no intention of entering the refugee camp, and that he had no interest in running for president. His only concern, he said, was the army and maintaining stability (al Sharq Online, September 19, 2023). In the past several media outlets reported he was considering presenting himself as a presidential candidate.
Lebanese Foreign Relations
Najib Mikati, prime minister of the Lebanese interim government, met in New York with Antonio Guterres, Secretary General of the United Nations. Mikati thanked Guterres for the UN’s support of Lebanon. He called for increased financial support and help to stop “Israeli violations of Lebanese sovereignty” (Twitter account of the office of the Lebanese interim prime minister, September 19, 2023).
https://www.terrorism-info.org.il/en/spotlight-on-terrorism-hezbollah-lebanon-and-syria-september-15-21-2023/

Treasury sanctions Hezbollah’s network in Colombia, but what took so long?
Emanuele Ottolenghi/Washington Examiner/September 22/2023|
The Biden administration wants to create the impression it is finally getting tough on Hezbollah, the Lebanese terror group and Iranian proxy. The Treasury Department’s sanctions last week against three Colombia-based Hezbollah operatives and their businesses seem to suggest the White House is taking the threat more seriously. In fact, this latest action is a classic case of closing the stables after the horse has bolted.
According to the Treasury, brothers Amer and Samer Akil Rada, along with Amer’s son Mehdy Helbawy, “manage a commercial enterprise for Hezbollah, including charcoal exports to Lebanon,” a preferred method for concealing drug shipments from Latin America. The department says Amer’s company remits “as much as 80 percent” of its proceeds to Hezbollah. This, then, is not just a case of Hezbollah supporters remitting money to Hezbollah in the form of donations or laundering money for cartels and paying a percentage of their revenue to Hezbollah. This is a wholly owned Hezbollah business.
There’s more. Amer, according to the Treasury, was an operational member of the Hezbollah hit squad behind the 1994 deadly terror attack against the AMIA, the Jewish cultural center in Argentina, which left 85 dead and more than 200 wounded — not just a sympathetic businessman then, but a trained terrorist. Samer, who is now running a lucrative cryptocurrency operation in Venezuela, was suspected by local authorities of being implicated in a cocaine shipment hidden under pineapples that was seized on its way from Belize to El Salvador in 2013. At the time, Samer denied any wrongdoing. With the fresh sanctions last week, the Treasury has finally set the record straight.
One could be forgiven for thinking that the Treasury’s latest revelations are new. They are not.
Amer and Samer Akil Rada were first publicly linked to Hezbollah in two separate articles published by the Argentinian news outlet InfoBae in 2018. Then, in October 2020, the Washington-based Latin America expert Joseph Humire detailed Amer and Samer Akil Rada’s links to Hezbollah in a lengthy Atlantic Council study of Hezbollah’s networks in Venezuela. Humire noted, “Argentine authorities suspect a Venezuelan Lebanese dual national named Amer Mohamed Akil Rada of being involved in the Hezbollah attack of the AMIA building.” Amer, later on, “set up small import-export businesses in Panama, sending textiles to Colombia and charcoal to Lebanon, with as much as 80 percent of the proceeds used to support Hezbollah.” This is almost word for word what the Treasury announced last week.
Since those reports appeared in the press, publicly exposed evidence of the Akils’ business network and their connections to the Maduro regime and Hezbollah has piled up, including, most recently, a detailed map of their activities in a Washington Institute policy note in March 2022. But by then, the Akils had absconded to safer shores. Amer fled Colombia in 2014, setting up a business in Lebanon while leaving Samer and Mehdy behind to run the Colombia operation. Samer and Mehdy too have since left Colombia, according to confidential Colombian sources who spoke to this author in July. They are now operating their businesses from the safety of Venezuela’s friendly Maduro regime.
Not only did Washington’s targets find shelter elsewhere long before the Treasury acted against them, but they had ample time to cover their tracks as well. Shipping records for the companies the Treasury sanctioned, such as Zanga S.A.S., obtained from the Panjiva commercial database, show that Zanga discontinued business operations in 2021, soon after its suspected link to Hezbollah became public and long before the Treasury bothered to act. Shipments of Colombian charcoal have since been handled by new companies, also owned by Lebanese nationals. Zanga’s old clients, likewise, have also disappeared, and new buyers have replaced them in the same locations to which Zanga used to ship.
The slow pace of the Treasury’s designations, of course, can be just a function of budgetary constraints, personnel changes, or a different policy focus (think Russia), not the result of a policy aversion to targeting Iran’s proxies. Either way, the result is underwhelming. We get a press release; Hezbollah’s operatives, meanwhile, are already out of reach.
**Emanuele Ottolenghi is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Follow him on X @eottolenghi. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focused on national security and foreign policy.

Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on September 22-23/2023
Netanyahu tells UN that Israel is 'at the cusp' of a historic agreement with Saudi Arabia
UNITED NATIONS (AP)/September 22, 2023
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told the U.N. General Assembly on Friday that Israel is “at the cusp” of a historic breakthrough leading to a peace agreement with Saudi Arabia, without outlining a clear path over the significant obstacles facing such an accord. He struck an optimistic tone throughout his roughly 25-minute address — and, once again, used a visual aid. He displayed contrasting maps showing Israel's isolation at the time of its creation in 1948 and the six countries that have normalized relations with it, including four that did so in 2020 in the so-called Abraham Accords. “There’s no question the Abraham Accords heralded the dawn of a new age of peace. But I believe that we are at the cusp of an even more dramatic breakthrough, an historic peace between Israel and Saudi Arabia," Netanyahu said. “Peace between Israel and Saudi Arabia will truly create a new Middle East.” There are several hurdles in the way of such an agreement, including the Saudis' demand for progress in the creation of a Palestinian state — a hard sell for Netanyahu's government, the most religious and nationalist in Israel's history. The Saudis are also seeking a defense pact with the United States and want help in building their own civilian nuclear program, which has fueled fears of an arms race with Iran. Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said in an interview with Fox News this week that the two sides are getting closer to an agreement, without providing much detail about the U.S.-led negotiations. He declined to specify what exactly the Saudis are seeking for the Palestinians. Netanyahu said the Palestinians “could greatly benefit from a broader peace," saying: “They should be part of that process, but they should not have a veto over the process.”Peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians broke down more than a decade ago, and violence has soared over the past year and a half, with Israel carrying out frequent military raids in the occupied West Bank and Palestinians attacking Israelis. Netanyahu's government has approved thousands of new settlement homes in the West Bank, which Israel captured in the 1967 war and which the Palestinians want for the main part of their future state.
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, who addressed the General Assembly on Thursday, made no direct reference to efforts to reach a normalization agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia. But he reiterated the centrality of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which has only worsened since the Abraham Accords were signed. “Those who think that peace can prevail in the Middle East without the Palestinian people enjoying their full and legitimate national rights are mistaken,” Abbas said. Netanyahu has often seemed to revel in using the podium of the General Assembly to lambast Israel's enemies. He famously held up a picture of a cartoon bomb in 2012 to illustrate Iran's advancing uranium enrichment. In 2020, he claimed Hezbollah was stockpiling explosives near Beirut's airport, prompting the Iran-allied militant group to organize an immediate visit by journalists, who saw heavy machinery but no weapons. The map he held up this year made no reference to the West Bank, Gaza or east Jerusalem, territories Israel captured in 1967 that the Palestinians want for their future state. The map appeared to show Israel encompassing all three.
The chamber was largely empty during his address, though there was a group of Netanyahu supporters who clapped several times during his speech. Protesters and supporters of Netanyahu demonstrated across the street from the U.N. headquarters. Netanyahu referred to the cartoon bomb when he held up the maps, pulling out a red marker and drawing a line showing a planned trade corridor stretching from India through the Middle East to Europe. The ambitious project, unveiled at this month's Group of 20 summit, would link Saudi Arabia to Israel. He also reprised his longstanding criticism of Iran, which Israel views as its greatest threat. Netanyahu referred to Iran's crackdown on protests, its supplying of attack drones to Russia for use in Ukraine, and its military activities across the Middle East. Netanyahu called for stepped-up sanctions over Iran's nuclear program, which has steadily advanced since the United States withdrew from a landmark agreement with Iran and world powers to which Israel had been staunchly opposed. Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi, who also attended the General Assembly, urged the U.S. to lift sanctions in order to return to the nuclear deal. Iran has always insisted its nuclear program is entirely peaceful, but the U.S. and others believe it had a secret weapons program until 2003. Raisi also denied Iran had sent drones to Russia following its invasion of Ukraine. U.S. and European officials say the sheer number of Iranian drones being used by Russia shows that the flow of such weapons intensified after hostilities began. In an ambiguous turn of phrase during his address, Netanyahu said that “above all, Iran must face a credible nuclear threat.” The prime minister's office later issued a clarification, saying he meant to say ”credible military threat."
Israel, which is widely believed to have nuclear weapons but has never publicly acknowledged them, has repeatedly said all options are on the table to prevent Iran from getting nuclear weapons.

Letter to President Biden/Letter on Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’s request for uranium enrichment
September 21, 2023
President Joseph R. Biden, Jr.
The White House
1600 Pennsylvania Avenue NW
Washington, DC 20500
Dear Mr. President,
As a bipartisan group of Middle East regional and nuclear nonproliferation experts, many of whom have served in both Democratic and Republican administrations, we urge you to reject the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’s request for uranium enrichment as part of or separate from a normalization agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel. Such an agreement could bring much needed stability to the region, building upon certain positive Saudi policies and encouraging further progress. However, Riyadh does not need uranium enrichment to produce peaceful nuclear energy. Enrichment could bring Saudi Arabia to the brink of acquiring nuclear arms, and U.S. policy should prohibit it.
Since the dawn of the atomic age, it has been a core U.S. national security priority to prevent the spread of uranium enrichment and plutonium reprocessing technologies, which could be used to make fuel for atomic weapons. America has pursued this policy even with potential nuclear cooperation partners that are close U.S. allies. Public reports indicate Riyadh has requested an enrichment facility operated by Americans inside Saudi Arabia, but this poses an unacceptable proliferation risk, particularly given Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s public comments on nuclear weapons.
Riyadh’s threats to choose China as a nuclear supplier are hardly reason to change this critical U.S. policy. Indeed, acquiescing to such threats amounts to a sign of weakness and could encourage similar efforts by other countries. The United States has multiple tools of leverage to persuade Riyadh not to choose China as a nuclear supplier and to disrupt cooperation on uranium enrichment.
At the same time, the United States should significantly intensify its efforts to roll back Iran’s uranium enrichment activities. Providing Saudi Arabia with the same latent capability would be counter-productive and could trigger a regional arms race.
Any nuclear cooperation agreement with Saudi Arabia must meet the highest nonproliferation standards, including the commitment made by the United Arab Emirates in 2009 to forgo enrichment and reprocessing technologies (also known as the “gold standard” of nonproliferation), and enhanced inspection and transparency measures through a strong Additional Protocol with the International Atomic Energy Agency.
We are confident you share our goal of preventing the spread of atomic weapons and the means to acquire them and urge you to uphold longstanding U.S. nonproliferation policy.
Sincerely, 1
Anthony Ruggiero, Senior Director and Senior Fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies’ (FDD) Nonproliferation and Biodefense Program, and former Deputy Assistant to the President and National Security Council Senior Director for Counterproliferation and Biodefense (co-organizer)
Henry Sokolski, Executive Director, Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, and former Deputy for Nonproliferation Policy, U.S. Department of Defense (co-organizer)
Andrea Stricker, Deputy Director and Research Fellow, FDD’s Nonproliferation and Biodefense Program (co-organizer)
David Albright, Founder and President, Institute for Science and International Security
Ilan Berman, Senior Vice President, American Foreign Policy Council
Peter Bradford, former Commissioner, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, former Chair, New York Public Service Commission, and former Adjunct Professor of Nuclear Power and Public Policy, Yale School of the Environment and Vermont Law School
Susan F. Burk, former Special Representative of the President for Nuclear Nonproliferation
Sarah Burkhard, Senior Research Associate, Institute for Science and International Security
Thomas Countryman, Board Chair of the Arms Control Association and former Acting Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security
Mark Dubowitz, Chief Executive, FDD
Christopher Ford, Visiting Fellow, Stanford University’s Hoover Institution, Visiting Professor, Missouri State University’s Graduate School of Defense & Strategic Studies, and former Assistant Secretary of State for International Security and Nonproliferation
Torrey Froscher, former Chief of Analysis, Director of Central Intelligence Nonproliferation Center
Robert Gallucci, Professor, Georgetown University, and former Ambassador-at-Large and Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs
Pierre Goldschmidt, former Deputy Director General and the Head of the Department of Safeguards, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
Thomas D. Grant, Fellow, Lauterpacht Centre for International Law at the University of Cambridge, Faculty Director and Executive Board Member, LITSAT Initiative at George Washington University, and former Senior Advisor for Strategic Planning, Bureau of International Security and Nonproliferation, U.S. Department of State
Olli Heinonen, Distinguished Fellow, Stimson Center, and former Deputy Director General and the Head of the Department of Safeguards, IAEA
R. Scott Kemp, Associate Professor, Nuclear Science and Engineering, MIT, and former Science Advisor for Nonproliferation and Arms Control, U.S. Department of State
Daryl G. Kimball, Executive Director, Arms Control Association
Gregory D. Koblentz, Associate Professor, George Mason University
Valerie Lincy, Executive Director, Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control
Edwin S. Lyman, PhD, Director of Nuclear Power Safety, Union of Concerned Scientists
Jacob Nagel, Senior Fellow, FDD, Visiting Professor, Technion, Brigadier General (Res.), and former Acting National Security Advisor to Benjamin Netanyahu and head of Israel’s National Security Council
Yleem D.S. Poblete, Ph.D, former Assistant Secretary of State for Arms Control, Verification and Compliance, and congressional negotiator on “gold standard” for U.S.-UAE and other nuclear cooperation agreements
Jonathan Schanzer, Senior Vice President, FDD, and former intelligence analyst, U.S. Department of the Treasury
Sharon Squassoni, Research Professor, George Washington University, and former U.S. Department of State and Arms Control and Disarmament Agency official
Behnam Ben Taleblu, Senior Fellow, FDD
Ambassador Jackie Wolcott, former U.S. representative to the IAEA

Motorbike-Riding Terrorists Killed in Strike Near Golan
FDD/September 22, 2023
Latest Developments
Two terrorists were killed in a southern Syrian village near the Golan Heights on September 21, in what Lebanese and Palestinian reports alleged was an Israeli airstrike. The two, whose names and affiliations were not immediately published, were riding a motorbike when it was hit by an explosion at Beit Jin, some 10 kilometers east of the Israeli Golan town of Majdal Shams.
Lebanese and Palestinian sources quoted in several media reports described the two as “operatives” with possible links to West Bank terrorism. Israeli officials declined to comment. Elsewhere on the Golan, Israeli tanks shelled two structures that the Syrian army had set up in violation of the countries’ 1974 disengagement agreement following the Yom Kippur War.
Expert Analysis
“While the details are still murky, this incident would appear to be the latest in Israel’s interdiction of Iranian-sponsored terrorism on the Golan. That the fatalities may have been involved in Palestinian terrorism in the West Bank would attest to Tehran’s efforts to orchestrate multi-front hostilities against Israel.” — Mark Dubowitz, FDD CEO
“With Iranian help, Assad weathered the calamitous civil war and is growing re-assertive in areas of Syria still under his control. However, the Assad regime is in no condition to fight a war with Israel. In provoking the Jewish state, Assad is carrying out the will of his Iranian patron against Syrian interests. Given the tripwire tensions, Israel must be vigilant against any new Syrian deployments — certainly those that breach the Golan buffer zone and could serve as cover for attacks.” — Enia Krivine, Senior Director of FDD’s Israel Program and National Security Network
“Syria’s blatant disregard of the 1974 disengagement agreement is evident. Additionally, the presence of Hezbollah in the area — along with its frequent use of Syrian military infrastructure to plan assaults on Israeli targets in the Golan Heights — strengthens the justification for Israel’s constant vigilance of the demilitarized zone.” — Joe Truzman, Research Analyst at FDD’s Long War Journal

Israel fires on Syria targets from occupied Golan
Associated Press/September 22/2023
The Israeli military said tanks struck two structures inside a demilitarized zone in Syria, claiming the buildings violated a half-century-old cease-fire agreement between the two countries. The structures, it said, were being used by the Syrian military, amounting to what the army called a "clear violation" of the 1974 cease-fire. The Israeli army did not provide any information on what the structures were used for or when they were built. In Syria, the pro-government Sham FM radio station said Israel's military struck an area on the edge of the Syrian side of the Golan Heights in the village of Hadar. It said there were no casualties. The 1974 agreement established a demilitarized separation zone between Israeli and Syrian forces, stationing a U.N. peacekeeping force there to maintain calm. Assaf Orion, a retired Israeli general and research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, said the strike did not mark a major escalation. The Israeli military often strikes what it says are Iranian-linked targets in Syria. "It's just a small match in a much larger fireworks show," Orion said. He said both the structures and the Israeli strike violated the cease-fire agreement, which bans both sides from military activity in the demilitarized territory. The agreement is credited with officially ending the 1973 Mideast war, when a coalition of Arab states led by Egypt and Syria launched an attack on Israel on Yom Kippur, the holiest day of the Jewish calendar. Israel is marking the 50th anniversary of the war next week, based on the Hebrew calendar. Israel and Syria are bitter enemies, though the cease-fire has largely held for the past five decades. Also on Thursday, Syrian media reported that Israeli drones targeted two people riding a motorcycle in the Syrian capital of Damascus. The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, an opposition war monitor, said the Israeli strike killed two members of Islamic Jihad, a Palestinian militant group backed by Iran, near the village of Beit Jin in southern Syria. Islamic Jihad official Ismail Abu-Mujahed denied that any of their operatives were killed in southern Syria. The Israeli army declined to comment on the reports.

Iran's Quds force chief oversees joint military drill in Syria
Agence France Presse//September 22/2023
The head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards' Quds Force, Esmail Qaani, has visited Syria to oversee a joint military drill, media outlets in the Islamic republic said. Qaani, appointed Quds Force commander after a U.S. drone strike on Baghdad killed its revered leader Qasem Soleimani in 2020, met senior Syrian officials in Damascus, Tasnim news agency reported late Thursday. They held discussions on ways to "confront the military and security challenges facing Syria" and supervised a joint Iran-Syria military exercise, Tasnim said. Qaani also praised Syria and Iran's "brotherly relations" said Iran "will stand by the Syrian people and leadership in facing its challenges", the news agency added. The Quds Force is the foreign operations arm of Iran's powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The United States placed it on its list of "foreign terrorist organizations" in 2019, but Iran insists its activities abroad are an example of regional cooperation aimed at shoring up stability and blocking Western interference. Iran has been a major ally of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, providing him economic, political, and military support during Syria's more than 12-year civil war. Tehran's support helped Damascus claw back most of the territory it lost at the start of the conflict and positioned Iran in a leading role as Assad seeks to focus on reconstruction. Militias affiliated with the Revolutionary Guards have a heavy presence across Syria but Tehran denies sending forces to fight in Syria, saying it only has military advisers in the war-ravaged country. The Syrian conflict has claimed more than 500,000 lives, displaced millions and ravaged the country's infrastructure and industry. In May, Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi embarked on a landmark visit to Syria, where he called on "resistance forces" to come together to confront Tehran's arch-enemy Israel.
Since the start of the Syrian war in 2011, Israel has carried out hundreds of air strikes against Syrian positions as well as Iranian and Lebanese Hezbollah forces, allies of Damascus and arch-foes of Israel. Israel rarely comments on the strikes on a case-by-case basis, but says it seeks to prevent Iran from establishing a foothold on its doorstep.

Israeli drone hits Gaza as violent protests rage
Nidal al-Mughrabi/GAZA (Reuters)/September 22, 2023
An Israeli drone hit outposts in the Gaza Strip on Friday as violent protests persisted along the separation fence, while in a separate incident, troops shot dead a Palestinian fighter during a raid in the occupied West Bank. The military said the drone strikes targeted two military posts belonging to the Islamist group Hamas, which controls the Gaza Strip, while a tank hit another post from which shots were fired on troops confronting protesters. The Hamas-affiliated radio station Aqsa said two people had been wounded in the strikes. Palestinians in Gaza have been holding protests along the separation fence for days, with youths throwing stones and improvised explosive devices at Israeli troops, who have responded with live fire. According to the Israeli military, protesters have launched incendiary balloons into Israeli territory, starting fires in areas near the separation fence. The protests have come during a renewed push to restart efforts for Israeli Palestinian peace as part of a potential U.S.-backed accord between Israel and Saudi Arabia being pursued by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. On Friday, the health ministry said 31 Palestinians had been wounded during the confrontations, which came days after a protester was shot dead by troops. In a separate incident in the West Bank, Israeli forces raiding the village of Kafr Dan near the city of Jenin shot dead a fighter belonging to the Islamic Jihad militant group, the seventh person to be killed this week.
RAIDS, ASSAULTS
Violence in the West Bank has raged for over a year, with stepped up Israeli military raids, increased settler assaults on Palestinian villages and a spate of Palestinian attacks targeting Israelis. In Gaza, Hamas officials have defended the demonstrations, ostensibly held to protest issues including the treatment of Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails and Jewish visits to the Al Aqsa mosque compound, a site holy to both Muslims and Jews, who know it as the Temple Mount. "Our people are fighting an open battle against the enemy," said Hamas spokesman Abdel-Latif al-Qanoua. Another official, Hazem Qassem, said Israeli bombing of the group's security outposts would not frighten them and would fail to curb the protests. In response to the clashes, Israel has shut the Erez crossing point, preventing many of the 18,000 Gazans who have permits to work in the West Bank and Israel from getting to their jobs, cutting off much needed cash to the enclave. In recent weeks Hamas has itself been targeted by protests by youths angry at the dire economic situation in Gaza, where jobless rates run at almost 50%, according to World Bank figures. Palestinian and United Nations officials say the 16-year-old Israeli blockade, backed by Egypt, hindered economic revival in the enclave while Hamas leaders say Israeli sanctions are partly aimed at inciting residents against the Islamist group's rule. Israel says its blockade is necessary to stop arms reaching Hamas, with which it has fought several wars since 2007.

Communication outage hits flood-stricken Derna, further complicating search efforts
Associated Press/September 22/2023
A day-long communication outage in a flood-stricken city in eastern Libya further complicated the work of teams searching for bodies under the rubble and at sea Wednesday. The country's chief prosecutor, meanwhile, vowed to take "serious measures" to deliver justice for the victims of the floods, which killed thousands of people and devastated the coastal city of Derna more than a week ago. The outage was caused by fiber-optic cables being severed Tuesday, Libya's state-owned telecommunications company said. Engineers were investigating to determine whether it happened because of digging for bodies or was sabotage, the company's spokesman, Mohamed al-Bdairi, told a local television station. Internet and phone service were knocked out, with residents and journalists unable to reach those inside Derna. Authorities said communications with the city were restored Wednesday evening. Heavy rains triggered deadly flooding across eastern Libya earlier this month. The storm overwhelmed two dams in the first hours of Sept. 11, sending a wall of water several meters high through the center of Derna, destroying entire neighborhoods and sweeping people out to sea. The floods inundated as much as a quarter of the city, officials have said. Thousands of people were killed, with many dead still under the rubble or at sea, according to search teams. Government officials and aid agencies have given varied death tolls ranging from about 4,000 to over 11,000. At least 40,000 people were displaced in the area, including 30,000 in Derna, according to the U.N.'s migration agency. Many people have moved to other cities across Libya, hosted by local communities or sheltered in schools. Local authorities said they have isolated the worst damaged part of Derna amid growing concerns about potential infection by waterborne diseases. Health authorities have launched a vaccination campaign that initially targeted search and rescue teamed along with children in Derna and other impacted areas.
Hundreds of angry protesters gathered outside the main mosque in Derna on Monday. They lashed out at the political class that has controlled Libya since the ouster and killing of longtime dictator Moammar Gadhafi in a 2011 NATO-supported uprising.
The protesters demanded an investigation into the disaster to be accelerated and called for the reconstruction of Derna to be under United Nations supervision. General Prosecutor al-Sidiq al-Sour has launched an investigation into the collapse of the two dams in Derna. In comments to a local television station Wednesday, he vowed to take "serious measures" to deliver justice for the victims of the floods. "It's a great catastrophe, and the casualty toll is significant. Certainly, if measures had been taken at the right time in the past years, a catastrophe with such magnitude wouldn't happen," he said. The dams were built by a Yugoslav construction company in the 1970s above Wadi Derna, which divides the city. They were meant to protect the city from flash floods, which are not uncommon in the area. The dams were not maintained for decades, despite warnings by scientists that they may burst. Many residents, however, called for an international investigation, a move that shows the deep mistrust in state institutions in a country divided between rival government for most of the past decade. Such a call received the support of the Supreme Council of State, an advisory body based in the capital of Tripoli. The council said Wednesday that a "thorough international investigation" is needed to determine reasons behind the crisis in Derna. Humanitarian aid, meanwhile, continued to flow into Libya. A U.S. shipment that included shelter sheeting, repair kits, hygiene supplies, blankets and water containers arrived Wednesday in the eastern city of Benghazi, said Samantha Power, the head of the U.S. Agency for International Development.

One dead, 15 injured in strike on Ukraine's Kremenchuk
LBCI/September 22/2023
At least one person was killed, and 15 others, including a child, were wounded in a Russian airstrike targeting the city of Kremenchuk in central Ukraine, according to the regional governor's announcement. The governor of the Poltava region, stated, "The enemy launched missiles at Kremenchuk. The air defense forces intercepted a missile. Unfortunately, there is damage to infrastructure."

Canada announces C$650 mln aid to Ukraine during Zelenskiy's visit
LBCI/September 22/2023
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced on Friday, during President Volodymyr Zelenskiy's visit to Ottawa, a new aid package for Ukraine worth 650 million Canadian dollars or 452 million euros. Trudeau explained to the Canadian Parliament that this three-year aid package will include the delivery of approximately 50 armored vehicles to Kyiv and training for Ukrainian pilots on F-16 fighter jets.

Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky visits Canada for first time since Russia invasion
Antoinette Radford - BBC News/September 22, 2023
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky has arrived in Canada for the first time since the Russian invasion. Canadian TV showed Prime Minister Justin Trudeau meeting Mr Zelensky and the first lady on the runway in Ottawa. It comes after increasing doubts from international partners over how it should continue providing aid to Kyiv. Mr Zelensky arrived from Washington where he had hoped to secure further funding but it is unclear if US Congress will back more aid. Earlier in the week, he urged world leaders to continue to support Ukraine to help fight off Russian forces at the United Nations in New York. Diplomatic tensions are on the rise, after Mr Zelensky criticised Poland, Slovakia and Hungary, for banning imports of Ukrainian grain. Mr Zelensky was joined by First Lady Olena Zelenska where they were greeted on the tarmac by hugs from Canadian officials including Mr Trudeau. Canada reaffirmed its commitment to Ukraine on arrival - the country's UN ambassador told news agency Associated Press it needs "to do more" to help. "We're going to continue to do everything we can to support the Ukrainian people," said Bob Rae. Although this the first in person visit for Mr Zelensky since the war began, he has addressed parliament via video link before. The president will address parliament again to plea for continued support from a country that has already provided weapons, tanks and training for Ukrainian soldiers. Its package so far has totalled around $6bn (£4.8bn) but in June Trudeau did pledge his country remained committed to supporting Ukraine. He will also meet business leaders in Toronto on his trip. Justin Trudeau, Olena Zelenska and Volodymyr ZelenskyMr Zelensky and wife Olena received a warm greeting on the tarmac from Justin Trudeau. In the US, Republican scepticism about funding the war is growing despite pleas from the president not to turn its back on Ukraine. "Russia believes that the world will grow weary and allow it to brutalise Ukraine without consequence," Mr Biden said. The US Congress has now authorised more than $110bn (£89bn) in aid to Ukraine, but polls suggest support among Americans for further spending has declined. Many Republicans argue the money would be better spent on domestic issues, but during Mr Zelensky's visit, President Biden approved further funding for Kyiv valued at £265m ($325m). It includes upgrades to air defences - but not the long-range missiles that President Zelensky has been requesting. Poland also announced on Wednesday it would no longer be sending new weapons to Ukraine and would instead be focussing on defending itself with more modern weapons.

Canada's cyber intelligence agency warns of potential attacks during Zelenskyy's visit
CBC/September 22, 2023
Canada's electronic intelligence agency is warning the Canadian cyber community — especially operators of government and critical infrastructure websites — to be vigilant as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visits the country. "We have observed that it's not uncommon to see increased distributed denial of service (DDoS) campaigns against NATO countries that support Ukraine, or host visits from Ukrainian government officials," said a warning from the Communications Security Establishment Friday morning. "The Government of Canada, like every other government and private-sector organization in the world, is subject to ongoing and persistent cyberthreats." Zelenskyy touched down in Ottawa late Thursday for a two-day visit which will see him address Parliament before heading to Toronto for a meeting with the business community. It's expected Ottawa will announce further military and social assistance while Zelenskyy is in the country. The Communications Security Establishment, which is in charge of providing government Canadian signals intelligence and cyber security, has been making similar warnings since the onset of the Russian invasion of Ukraine last year. Earlier this summer it warned that Russia-aligned non-state threat actors will likely continue their attempts to compromise the country's oil and gas sector until the war in Ukraine ends. "We assess that the intent of this activity is very likely to disrupt critical services for psychological impact, ultimately to weaken Canadian support for Ukraine," it said in a June threat assessment. Pro-Russian hackers have taken credit for knocking Canadian government websites offline in the past, including the page for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's office. "In case anyone was wondering, Russia being able to bring down an official government of Canada web page for a few hours is in no way going to dissuade us from our unshakable support of Ukraine," Trudeau said at the time.

Ukraine launches missile strike on headquarters of Russia's Black Sea Fleet
Associated Press/September 22/2023
Ukraine carried out a missile strike Friday on the headquarters of Russia's Black Sea Fleet, a Russian official said, and images on social media showed large plumes of smoke said to be coming from Sevastopol harbor in the annexed Crimea. The Russian-installed governor of Sevastopol, Mikhail Razvozhayev, didn't offer any details, saying only that emergency services have been dispatched to the site of the strike and there was no information about casualties. Razvozhayev warned Sevastopol residents that "another attack is possible," and urged them not to leave buildings and not to come to the city center.
"Those who are near the fleet headquarters, head to the shelters if you hear the siren," he wrote. He also said that firefighters were battling a blaze at the site of the attack, and more emergency forces were being brought in, an indication that the fire could be massive.
Ukraine did not immediately claim responsibility for the attack. Sevastopol residents said they heard explosions in the skies and saw smoke, Russian news outlets reported. Images circulated in Ukrainian Telegram channels showed clouds of smoke over the seafront. The Associated Press could not immediately verify the videos. The attack comes a day after Russian missiles and artillery pounded cities across Ukraine, killing at least five people as President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with President Joe Biden and congressional leaders in Washington with an additional $24 billion aid package being considered. In other developments, ongoing shelling in the southern Kherson region killed one man and injured another, said regional Gov. Oleksandr Prokudin. "Kherson has been restless since the morning," he said on Telegram. Russian shelling sparked fires in a residential building and a garage.
In Kharkiv, regional Gov. Oleh Synyehubov said over 14 settlements came under attack. A house was damaged and a fire broke out in Vovchansk, in Chuguyiv district. There were no casualties, the governor said.

China announces 'strategic partnership' with Syria
Associated Press/September 22/2023
Chinese President Xi Jinping announced a "strategic partnership" with Syria on Friday during talks with President Bashar al-Assad, who is seeking financial support to help rebuild his devastated country. The leaders met on the eve of the Asian Games opening ceremony, which Assad will attend as part of his first visit to China since 2004. China is one of only a handful of countries outside the Middle East that Assad has visited since the 2011 start of a civil war that killed more than half a million people, displaced millions and battered Syria's infrastructure and industry. Assad is the latest in a string of leaders ostracised by the West to be feted by Beijing, with Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro and Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi visiting this year, as well as top Russian officials. "Chinese President Xi Jinping and his Syrian counterpart Bashar al-Assad on Friday jointly announced the establishment of the China-Syria strategic partnership," according to Chinese state news agency Xinhua. The leaders were each flanked by nine aides at a large rectangular wooden table, a CCTV video showed, as two flags from each country were set in front of a Chinese painting in the meeting room. Relations between the two countries "have withstood the test of international changes", Xi said. "China supports Syria in opposing foreign interference, opposing unilateral bullying, safeguarding national independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity," the Chinese leader added. Assad, in turn, said he "thanked the Chinese government for everything you have done to stand alongside the Syrian people in their cause and their trials", according to a readout from Syrian state news agency SANA. "This visit is extremely important due to its timing and circumstances because a multipolar world is being formed today which will restore balance and stability to the world," he said. "I hope that our meeting today will lay the foundations for broad-based and long-term strategic cooperation in all areas," he added.
'New level'
Beijing's foreign ministry has said Assad's visit will serve to take ties to a "new level".
Beijing has long provided Damascus with diplomatic support, particularly at the UN Security Council where China is a permanent member. Analysts say that Assad's visit represents an important step towards returning to the international fold after years of US-led isolation of his regime. Syria's war began after Assad's repression of peaceful pro-democracy protests escalated into a deadly conflict that pulled in foreign powers and jihadists. Assad's trip also comes as China expands its engagement in the Middle East. This year, Beijing brokered a deal that saw longtime regional rivals Saudi Arabia and Damascus-backer Iran agree to restore ties and reopen their respective embassies. The detente was followed by Syria's return to the Arab fold at a summit in Saudi Arabia in May, ending more than a decade of regional isolation.

Kim sets forth steps to boost Russia ties as US, Seoul warn about weapons deals
Associated Press/September 22/2023
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un ordered unspecified steps to further develop relations with Russia after his recent visit to the country as his foreign rivals warn that any cooperation on military weapons would be dangerous and bring consequences. Experts speculated North Korea and Russia likely discussed banned arms transfer deals and other cooperation measures during Kim's six-day trip last week. They say the two countries are serious about sharply boosting their ties while they are engaged in separate confrontations with the West. During a Politburo meeting on Wednesday, Kim arranged for work to be done on further developing bilateral ties at "a new high level at the practical stage" to consolidate "the success" of his Russia trip, the official Korean Central News Agency said Friday. Kim underscored the need to expand bilateral cooperation in every field, making a substantial contribution to the promotion of the well-being of the people of the two countries, KCNA said. While traveling in Russia's Far East, Kim met with President Vladimir Putin and visited key Russian military and technology sites. The two suggested they would cooperate on defense issues but gave no specifics, which left South Korea and its allies — including the United States — uneasy. Observers say Kim could ship ammunitions to refill Putin's exhausted arms stores to back his war efforts in Ukraine in return for receiving sophisticated weapons technologies and economic aid. The U.S., South Korea and their partners have warned that Russia and North Korea would pay a price if they proceed with such deals in breach of U.N. Security Council resolutions that ban any weapons trade with North Korea. Russia, a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council, voted for those U.N. resolutions. Speaking before the U.N. General Assembly on Wednesday, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol said any action by a permanent U.N. Security Council member to circumvent international norms would be dangerous and "paradoxical." Yoon said that South Korea, together with its allies, "will not sit idly by" over a possible Pyongyang-Moscow weapons deal that he said would pose a threat to not only Ukraine but also South Korea. Many experts say North Korea would seek Russian help to complete the development of high-tech weapons systems such as spy satellites, nuclear-powered submarines and powerful long-range missiles. They say Kim wants to modernize his weapons arsenals to wrest greater concessions from the U.S. and South Korea.

Russia's Black Sea Fleet has taken hits, but intel says military leaders may be more worried about an airbase attack near Moscow
Business Insider/September 22, 2023
Ukraine has relentlessly targeted the Black Sea Fleet based in occupied Crimea in recent days. But Western intel says Russia may be more worried about recent explosions at a Moscow-area airbase. Several military aircraft were blown up at the Chkalovsky base earlier this week, Kyiv said. Ukrainian forces have relentlessly targeted Russia's Black Sea Fleet over the last two weeks, but a recent attack at an airbase closer to home may have Moscow's military leadership more concerned. Britain's defense ministry wrote in a Friday intelligence update that both Russia and Ukraine have experienced "unusually intense attacks deep behind their lines" over the past few days, noting recent attacks on both the Black Sea Fleet in occupied Crimea and the Chkalovsky Air Base, which is located just outside Moscow. The airfield "hosts specialist military aircraft as well as VIP transport for Russian leaders," the UK said, making it a "sensitive" location for Russia. Ukraine claimed earlier this week that unknown saboteurs blew up several military aircraft at Chkalovsky. A Ilyushin Il-20 (referred to by NATO as a "Coot") special mission aircraft — a "valuable" asset that can "undertake missions which include electronic intelligence collection — was reportedly damaged in the explosions, Britain's defense ministry said. In addition to that aircraft, the Ukrainian Main Directorate of Intelligence, an arm of the country's defense ministry (also known as the HUR), said the sabotage effort also damaged a Mil Mi-28 attack helicopter and a Antonov An-148 passenger aircraft. Ukraine claimed the attack caused "hysteria" among Moscow's military command given the base is also said to be home to high-profile platforms like reconnaissance aircraft and Russia's so-called "doomsday" planes.
The Monday attack marked the latest in a string of assaults specifically targeting Russian airfields and airbases. These attacks, many of which have taken place within Russia's internationally recognized borders and hundreds of miles from current fighting in Ukraine, have exposed serious shortcomings in Moscow's force protection and domestic security capabilities. But Russia is also taking hits elsewhere. Ukraine's forces have launched several missile strikes on assets belonging to Russia's Black Sea Fleet, which is based in the occupied Crimean peninsula. On Wednesday, Kyiv said it hit a command post near the port of Sevastopol, and Russia's defense ministry admitted on Friday that the fleet's headquarters in the city was damaged by Ukrainian missiles. These attacks came just over a week after Ukraine launched a massive cruise missile strike on a Russian shipyard at Sevastopol, damaging the facility and two warfighting vessels. Still, Britain's defense ministry said in its intelligence update that even though the Black Sea Fleet has been "heavily targeted" this week, the explosions at Chkalovsky "are likely to be of most strategic concern to Russian leaders" because the airbase is so strategic for the Kremlin and hosts prized aircraft. These long-range strikes have not been one-sided, though, as Russia has continues to attack Ukraine's cities and civilians with missiles and drones. Britain's defense ministry attributed the increase in deep strikes to a slow-moving battlefield, where Ukrainian forces continue to make steady territorial gains in their grinding counteroffensive. "Russia has launched long-range strikes at targets across Ukraine repeatedly over the last week," Britain's defense ministry said. "This unusual intensity is likely partially in response to the incidents in Russia and Crimea. With the ground battle relatively static, each side is seeking advantage by striking through their adversary's strategic depth." While the lines are largely static, Kyiv's forces on Thursday to have achieved something of a breakthrough along a portion of the front lines. Its forces managed to advance heavy Western armor beyond two formidable layers of Russia's defensive lines in the southern Zaporizhzhia region — a notable development that could pave the way for bringing forward more firepower.

Zelensky delivers upbeat message to US lawmakers on war progress as some Republican support softens
Associated Press/September 22/2023
President Volodymyr Zelensky worked to shore up U.S. support for Ukraine on a whirlwind visit to Washington on Thursday, delivering an upbeat message on the war's progress while facing new questions about the flow of American dollars that for 19 months have helped keep his troops in the fight against Russian forces. The Ukrainian leader received a far quieter reception than the hero's welcome he was given last year from Congress, but also won generally favorable comments on the next round of U.S. aid he says he needs to stave off defeat. Zelenskyy, in long-sleeve olive drab, came to the Capitol with a firm message in private talks with Republican and Democratic leaders. The Ukrainians have a solid war plan, and "they are winning," lawmakers quoted him as assuring them, at a time that the world is watching Western support for Kyiv. President Joe Biden gave Zelenskyy a red-carpet arrival on the White House South lawn and more ceremony than world leaders normally receive, and made clear his concern with Congress. Intensifying opposition to continued Ukraine funding from a faction of congressional Republicans largely aligned with the party's presidential frontrunner Donald Trump is threatening what had been easier congressional approval for four previous rounds of funding for Ukraine, delivering $113 billion. Any momentum toward opposing U.S. aid for Ukraine also potentially risks public backing for the war effort.
Asked about the funding issue after meeting with Zelenskyy, Biden answered, "I'm counting on the good judgment of the United States Congress. There's no alternative." It was Zelenskyy's second visit to Washington since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 and came as Biden's request to Congress for an additional $24 billion for Ukraine's military and humanitarian needs is hanging in the balance. Resistance to the latest request could lead to delays or reductions. The administration did announce another $325 million Thursday in what's known as presidential drawdown assistance for Ukraine. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the package would include additional air defense, artillery ammunition, cluster munitions and other arms. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, who faces opposition to the Ukrainian funding package from the Republicans aligned with Trump, notably chose not to join House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, a Democrat, in greeting Zelenskyy when he arrived. And Republican McCarthy also confirmed that he declined Zelenskyy's request for a joint session of Congress, as happened during the Ukrainian president's dramatic visit to Washington last winter, saying there wasn't time for that on short notice. But McCarthy praised the answers that Ukrainians delivered to lawmakers Thursday.
"It was direct, I thought it was honest, they were answering the questions," McCarthy said. "I heard a lot of positive things." Lawmakers who attended the private meeting described questioning Zelenskyy on the way forward for Ukraine's counteroffensive, as the fight to roll back invading Russian forces moves closer to the two-year mark without major breakthroughs in Russia's heavily mined lines. Zelenskyy "conceded that it's tough, very tough to overcome entrenched defenses," Independent Sen. Angus King said. "They believe they will make slow but steady progress, but it's not going to be quick."Back home, Russia launched its heaviest strikes in a month in the hours before Zelenskyy's arrival at Congress, killing three, igniting fires and damaging energy infrastructure as Russian missiles and artillery pounded cities across Ukraine. White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan underscored Thursday that Biden would seek to drive home with Zelenskyy's visit that the U.S. and the world "send the unmistakable message that in the 21st century, a dictator cannot be allowed to conquer or carve up his neighbor's territory.""If we allow that here, it will happen elsewhere in ways that will undermine the fundamental security, not to mention the values that the American people hold so dear," Sullivan said. Biden has called on world leaders to stand strong with Ukraine, even as he faces domestic political divisions at home. A hard-right flank of Republicans, led by Trump, Biden's chief rival in the 2024 race for the White House, is increasingly opposed to sending more money overseas.
Zelenskyy was scheduled to address the Canadian Parliament and meet with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in Ottawa on Friday. He faces challenges in Europe, as cracks emerge in what had been a largely united Western alliance behind Ukraine.
Late Wednesday, Poland's prime minister said his country is no longer sending arms to Ukraine, a comment that appeared aimed at pressuring Kyiv and put Poland's status as a major source of military equipment in doubt as a trade dispute between the neighboring states escalates. Zelenskyy's visit comes with U.S. and world government leaders watching as Ukrainian forces struggle to take back territory that Russia gained over the past year. Their progress in the next month or so before the rains come and the ground turns to mud could be critical to rousing additional global support over the winter. Russian President Vladimir Putin, who hopes to outlast allied backing for Kyiv, will be ready to capitalize if he sees Ukraine is running low on air defense or other weapons. The political environment has shifted markedly since Zelensky addressed Congress last December on his first trip out of Ukraine since the war began. He was met with rapturous applause for his country's bravery and surprisingly strong showing in the war. His meeting with senators Thursday took place behind closed doors in the Old Senate Chamber, a historic and intimate place of importance at the U.S. Capitol, signifying the respect the Senate is showing the foreign leader. Zelensky received a warm welcome from both parties on his stop in the Senate. Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and Majority Leader Chuck Schumer flanked him as he walked in. A few lawmakers of both parties wore clothes with blue and yellow, the colors of the Ukrainian flag. Schumer told reporters afterward one sentence summed up the meeting: "Mr. Zelensky said if we don't get the aid, we will lose the war." Senate Republican leader McConnell, who is trying to keep his party in line behind support for Ukraine, said afterward he was proud to welcome Zelensky to the Capitol. "Americans' support for Ukraine is not a charity," he said. "It's an investment in our own self-interest."

Anti-govt protesters block streets in Armenia capital
Associated Press/September 22/2023
Anti-government demonstrators took to the streets of Yerevan on Friday for a third day to protest the government's handling of the crisis in Nagorno-Karabakh. On Wednesday, Armenian separatists in Nagorno-Karabakh agreed to lay down their arms and dismantle their military, following a lightning offensive by Baku. That sparked mass anti-government rallies in Yerevan, with opposition parties accusing Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan of making too many concessions to Baku and demanding his resignation. Opposition leaders have announced plans to initiate Pashinyan's removal in parliament. Small groups of protesters were blocking streets across the Armenian capital on Friday, vowing to hamper the holding of Pashinyan's cabinet meeting scheduled later in the day. Police detained opposition politician Andranik Tevanyan, one of the protest organisers. Protesters also demanded the government take care of Nagorno-Karabakh's ethnic-Armenian population and help them to leave Pashinyan said on Friday that preparations were made to accommodate some 40,000 refugees, but said his primary goal was "to make sure our compatriots have the possibility to live in their homes without fear, in safety."
"There is a hope that the humanitarian situation could improve" in Nagorno-Karabakh he said, adding that situation "is changing rapidly." Azerbaijan's state news agency, Azertag, reported that Baku sent to the region 40 tonnes of humanitarian aid and the country's President Ilham Aliyev has promised to guarantee the rights of the Armenians living in the enclave.
'Difficult time'
On Wednesday and Thursday, dozens of protesters were detained outside Pashinyan's offices following riots that saw demonstrators throwing bottles and stones, attempting to break into the building. Riot police have used stun grenades and warned they would use "special measures" if the clashes continued. Pashinyan said on Thursday that his government "will be acting firmly but in line with law" against the rioters. "My appeal, the government's appeal remains the same: remain calm and don't cross the limits of law in this emotional and difficult time," he said in a televised address. Azerbaijan's Armenian-populated enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh had been under Armenian separatists' control since the 1990s war between Caucasus arch foes. But in 2020 Baku took revenge in a six-week war which ended in a Russian-brokered ceasefire that saw Armenia cede swathes of territories it had controlled for three decades.
The deal was seen in Armenia as a national humiliation which opposition parties blamed on Pashinyan's mishandling of the war. On Tuesday, Azerbaijan launched a military operation to retake the rest of the mountainous territory. Armenia didn't intervene militarily and the next day separatist authorities agreed to cease hostilities and disband their army.

Armenia ready for 40,000 families after Nagorno-Karabakh surrender
BBC/September 22/2023
Armenia is ready to host people displaced from the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh after its surrender to Azerbaijani forces, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has said. He said accommodation had been prepared for tens of thousands of people, although he saw "no direct threat" to Karabakh's ethnic Armenians. Karabakh authorities have warned the population could face ethnic cleansing. But Azerbaijan said it was seeking a "peaceful reintegration" of the region.
Ethnic-Armenian forces in Karabakh agreed a ceasefire with Azerbaijan on Wednesday after 24 hours of intense fighting.
Under the terms of the Russian-brokered truce, local Karabakh forces committed to being completely disbanded as well as disarmed.
Karabakh's human rights ombudsman, Gegham Stepanyan, said on social media that the streets of the capital Khankendi, known as Stepanakert by Armenians were "filled with displaced people, hungry, scared, and in uncertainty".
In a televised speech, the Armenian prime minister said the region's estimated 120,000 ethnic Armenians should be allowed to stay "in their homes in dignified and safe conditions".
But his country had started preparing for a possible influx of refugees when fighting erupted and was ready to take in as many as 40,000 families, Mr Pashinyan said.
More than 10,000 people had made their way to the airport in Khankendi on Wednesday with the hope of being evacuated, he added. The airport is adjacent to a Russian peacekeeping base.
Local forces in Nagorno-Karabakh earlier accused Azerbaijan's military earlier of breaking the truce. Social media footage showed people in Khankendi running for cover and what sounded like small-arms fire could be heard in the background.
Azerbaijan's defence ministry was quick to reject reports of a resumption in fighting as "completely false".
Mr Pashinyan also said the ceasefire was holding and denied reports that Azerbaijan's military had entered the regional capital.
Meanwhile, ethnic-Armenian and Azerbaijani delegations met in the town of Yevlakh, some 100km (60 miles) north of Khankendi, to discuss Nagorno-Karabakh's future.
Pictures on Azerbaijani state media showed the two delegations seated with members of Russia's peacekeeping mission.
After several hours, the Azerbaijani presidential office said in a statement that the negotiations had concluded and that fuel, medical supplies and humanitarian aid would be sent to to Nagorno-Karabakh.
It described the talks as "constructive and positive", but the country's representative also said it was difficult to expect all problems between Azerbaijan and Karabakh Armenians to be resolved in one session, Russia's Ria news agency reported.
A follow-up meeting is expected in the near future.
Nagorno-Karabakh has been isolated since Azerbaijan effectively blockaded the only route connecting the enclave to Armenia in December 2022.
Russia said its peacekeepers had evacuated 5,000 people from dangerous areas since the offensive had begun, Interfax news agency reported.
The breakaway region in the South Caucasus is internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan and the government in Baku has made clear it intends to take full control of it.
Azerbaijan's president, Ilham Aliyev, hailed the ceasefire agreement as a major victory, declaring that his country had restored its sovereignty over the territory for the first time in decades.
But ethnic Armenians fear that Azerbaijan taking control could lead to ethnic cleansing and Karabakh Armenians being forced to flee.
An adviser to the Karabakh authorities, Davit Babayan, told Reuters his people could not be left to die and that security guarantees were needed before local forces would hand over their weapons.
President Aliyev said his country had nothing against the population, only their "criminal junta".
The UN Security Council was due to discuss Nagorno-Karabakh later on Thursday.
Weakened by the months-long blockade and without significant international support, Karabakh's forces saw Azerbaijan make quick territorial gains after it launched its military operation on Tuesday.
Karabakh authorities have reported casualty figures of several hundred killed and wounded. The BBC has not been able to verify these figures, and independent observers have been unable to reach the region since the blockade started.
Five Russian peacekeepers were mistakenly killed during the Azerbaijani offensive, prosecutors in Baku say. Russian reports said they included the mission's deputy commander, Ivan Kovgan. A sixth Russian was killed in an Armenian attack, the prosecutors say.
President Aliyev expressed his condolences and told Vladimir Putin an investigation into their deaths would be carried out, the Kremlin said. Ethnic Armenians have controlled Karabakh since a bloody war following the collapse of the Soviet Union. Violence has erupted repeatedly over the years, including during the last major escalation in 2020 when Azerbaijan recaptured territory in a six-week war. There were clashes between police and demonstrators in the Armenian capital, Yerevan, on Wednesday, as thousands demanded the resignation of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.-

Nagorno-Karabakh separatists say negotiating their troops’ withdrawal
AFP/September 22/2023
Nagorno-Karabakh separatists said Friday they were negotiating their troops’ withdrawal from the disputed enclave after Azerbaijan reclaimed control in a lightning offensive.“Negotiations are underway with the Azerbaijani side under the auspices of Russian peacekeepers to organize the withdrawal process of troops and to ensure the return to their homes of the citizens displaced by military aggression,” the separatists said in a statement.

Somalia requests withdrawal postponement of African Union force
LBCI/September 22/2023
The Somali government has requested the United Nations Security Council, in a letter, to postpone the withdrawal of the African Union force from the violence-ridden country for a period of three months after experiencing "significant setbacks" during the war against the extremist group Al-Shabaab. The letter, as reported by AFP, outlines Somalia's request to the United Nations to delay the second phase of the troop withdrawal plan by 90 days, which requires the departure of three thousand soldiers by the end of September.

Three dead in Iran dust storms
LBCI/September 22/2023
At least three people have died, and hundreds have received medical care due to dust storms that swept through the Sistan-Baluchestan province in southeastern Iran, according to official media reports on Friday. In recent years, the frequency of these dust storms has increased in southern Iran, where wetlands are drying up at an alarming rate, leading to regional disputes over water resources.

Latest English LCCC  analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on September 22-23/2023
Artsakh is Armenia
Charles Elias Chartouni/September 22/2023
Artsakh, the Re-editing the Armenian Genocide and the Imploding Geopolitics of the Caucasus
My visit to Artsakh (the Armenian name of the Nagorno-Karabakh mountains) in 2016 left me with a sense of deep anxiety insofar as the future of this Armenian enclave surrendered by Stalin to Azerbaïdjan in 1921. A hundred years after the Genocide and the criminal relinquishing of Stalin, Putin commits deliberately the same sin while condoning the Azeri takeover, and endorsing the annihilation of the small Armenian republic. The gravity of this open geopolitical subversion is quite explicit about the rising equilibriums in the Caucasus, and the dwindling imprints of Russian power politics as an ultimate umpire between various power contenders. It displays, ostensibly, the wrong headed scaling of priorities set by the Russian czar, who by deliberately undermining the stability of Georgia, Armenia and Ukraine, under the specious argument of safeguarding Russian security and strategic Lebensraum, ended up compromising the future of the respective nations, fueling the imperial longings of Turkey and Azerbaïdjan, and weakening his strategic positioning in the Caucasus.
Aside from the fact, that his political nihilism and psychotic state of mind made him engage in wrongful decision making and irrational calculations, tragically illustrated in Ukraine, the total alienation of the European community, the renewed Cold War polarization, and the demise of diplomatic mediations. The irresponsible demeanor on the part of a post-Soviet dictator has elicited invariably mimetic effects, and unleashed the predatory instincts of like minded dictators (Erdogan, Aliev…) that took advantage of Russia’s self induced decline to move forward with their subversion agendas, lingering imperial objectives, and ultimately recast the geopolitical mapping in the Caucasus. Whereas, the Israelis have sided with Azeris to fuel their rivalry with Iranians, at the very expense of their broader geopolitical interests, and Western geo-strategic anchoring. This is a typical scenario of geopolitical damnation thrusted upon small nations coping with major strategic reshuffling, which aligns the ongoing tragic events on a continuum with the Armenian Genocide (1894-1924), whereby Turkey plotted an intentional policy to eradicate its Christian population (Armenian, Assyro-Chaldean, Syriac, Greek…).
The most repelling part of the ongoing events is their common featuring by Azeri-Turkish leadership and mob as the completion of the unfinished extermination job started in 1894. Far from being a territorial contention, the ongoing conflict highlights the underlying imperial agenda and the genocidal narrative is an abiding feature. The absence of Armenian military engagement is due to the ambivalence of the Russian position that turned out to be an open betrayal and strategic horse trading implied by the intricacies of the Ukraine war, the eccentricity of a criminal dictator, the converging agendas of the Azeri-Turkish coalition, the Azeri positioning on the energy market after the European sanctions on Russia, the skewed Israeli strategic perception, the geopolitical reclusiveness of the Republic of Armenia, and the diminishing stature of the United Nations and its detrimental effects. The mere takeover of an independent republic is a dangerous precedent, evocative of the immediate past and its cortège of tragedies, inaugurated by the Armenian Genocide. The United Nations report, written by Luis Ocampo-Moreno, on the violation of Human Rights in Artsakh, aptly labels the ongoing events genocidal, which they truly are and behoove a mandatory military intervention by the United Nations to prevent the Armenian Genocide from repeating. The default of intervention at the United Nations level, invites a clear stance on the part of NATO, regardless of Russian interests.
The brazen strategic inroads, of the Azeri-Turkish coalition, in the Russian strategic perimeter should be counterweighted by NATO, if the rising fascist and imperial trend to be contained on due time. Western democracies are, once again, challenged by dangerous strategic upheavals that need to be swiftly confronted and ultimately defeated, if the worst is to be prevented from happening. The UN, EU and NATO should ask for immediate withdrawal from Armenian territories, and convene for an international conference to decide over the political future of the area, and its stabilization under the control of UN peace keeping forces. The Russian deliberate betrayal of its security assignments makes its future role redundant and counterproductive, and impels the internationalization of security and strategic issues. Otherwise, the Caucasus is the new breeding ground for inter-ethnic wars, proliferating strategic and security wastelands and totalitarian power projections.

The US-Iran Deal: A Diplomatic Triumph or a Dangerous Precedent
Zoya Fakhoury/Amer Fakhoury Foundation/September 22/2023
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/122495/122495/
In the intricate chess game of international politics, the recent move by the United States to strike a deal with Iran has ignited widespread debate. The agreement involved unfreezing $6 billion of Iranian funds and releasing Iranian prisoners held in America, in return for the liberation of five American hostages. While many view this deal as a diplomatic triumph, others, especially those who have experienced firsthand the cruelty of the Iranian regime, see an unsettling picture.
To understand the concerns surrounding the deal, we must first revisit the oppressive nature of the Iranian regime. Last week, we commemorated the tragic death of Mahsa Jina Amini, a woman mercilessly killed by the Iranian regime for defying the dress code. This grim anniversary was marked by the detention of at least 600 women in Tehran alone, a stark reminder of the regime's blatant disregard for fundamental human rights. Despite these disturbing realities, Brett McGurk, the National Security Council's Coordinator for the Middle East and Africa, defended the recent deal. He claimed on CNN that the unfrozen billions would benefit not the Iranian regime, but the people. McGurk asserted that a humanitarian channel has been established to allow Iran to procure food, medicine, medical devices, and agricultural products from third-party vetted vendors, with the Treasury Department overseeing the process. However, this explanation raises more questions than it answers considering Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi stated that the funds will be spent “Wherever we need it”. In a recent interview with NBC News, Raisi said “This money belongs to the Iranian people, the Iranian government, so the Islamic Republic of Iran will decide what to do with this money”. He also went on to say, “humanitarian means whatever the Iranian people needs, so this money will be budgeted for those needs, and the needs of the Iranian people will be decided and determined by the Iranian government”. Considering the Iranian government has the blood of thousands of its own people on its hand, one can understand the need for concern here.
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is labeled as a terrorist Organization in the United States and in a recent Press Briefing with Matthew Miller, Department of State Spokesperson, Mr. Miller states that America will continue to impose sanctions on the Iranian government when events warrant that. Yet paradoxically, visas were issued to IRGC members, effectively welcoming individuals on a sanctions list onto American soil. Moreover, Iranian regime president Ebrahim Raisi, who is under US sanctions, was just in the US and when asked about whether they are still plotting to kill former US officials in regard to the death of Qassim Soleimani, he responds with “that cannot be forgotten or forgiven…how can we overlook this criminal act? The perpetrators must meet the punishment for the crime committed”.
Beyond the concern of the behavior of the Iranian government since the deal took place, the deal did not even result in the release of all US nationals, including Jamshid Sharmahd and Shahab Dalili. They were left behind. Notably, the State Department recently urged no travel to Iran yet Sharmahd was kidnapped in Dubai and extradited to Iran. The only individual that did not go to Iran himself and was kidnapped in a different country, was left behind in the deal.
The deal's consequences extend beyond the immediate release of American hostages. It has set a precedent for future interactions, one that might embolden the Iranian regime and embolden surrounding countries that Iran funds, such as Lebanon. The case of Amer Fakhoury further emphasizes the urgency of this issue. Fakhoury, a US citizen held in Lebanon under the Iranian-backed Hezbollah, tragically died due to illegal detention. His family still awaits justice, a stark reminder of the human cost behind these political machinations. According to the Robert Levinson Hostage Recovery and Hostage-Taking Accountability Act, the US possesses the legal tools to hold individuals and governments accountable for illegal detentions, yet this act is only good on paper. In Fakhoury's case, no actions have been taken so far and it has been over 3 years. His story underlines the need for a more robust response from the US government, one that goes beyond merely securing the release of some hostages to ensuring that perpetrators are held accountable. Since 1981, the US has paid Iran $15.7 billion, according to a MEMRI report. This recent deal adds to the trend of placating the Iranian regime without demanding significant commitments to improve human rights or halt other oppressive behaviors.
In conclusion, while it is crucial to safeguard our citizens abroad, we must ensure our actions do not inadvertently encourage more atrocities or embolden oppressive regimes. The recent US-Iran deal warrants serious scrutiny. Are we inadvertently rewarding a regime that routinely disregards human rights, and are we setting dangerous precedents for the future? As we ponder these questions, let us remember the real human cost behind these political maneuvers and strive for a course of action that upholds justice, accountability, and the preservation of human rights.
https://amerfoundation.org/blog/the-us-iran-deal-a-diplomatic-triumph-or-a-dangerous-precedent

Why it’s important to continue our support for Ukraine/Russian victory in Ukraine would give comfort and confidence to those who hate America
Michael R. Pompeo/Aaron MacLean/Fox News/September 22, 2023
As House GOP opposition to the latest proposed supplemental support for Ukraine shows, Republican support for aid to Ukraine as it fights naked Russian aggression on its territory continues to weaken. This is a dangerous trend – and some Republicans don’t appreciate the strategic and political risks they are taking.
Diminishing Republican support for Ukraine is rooted in skepticism of President Biden’s leadership on this matter. Such skepticism is warranted.
In the year that transpired between Biden’s inauguration and Putin’s invasion, this administration appeased Russia on energy policy, arms control policy, and on Ukraine. Its withdrawal from Afghanistan telegraphed profound weakness and unseriousness. The president even suggested he could tolerate a “minor incursion” by Russia in Ukraine.
A major invasion is what he in effect greenlit. As it began, the same intelligence agencies that failed to predict the speed of the Taliban victory in Afghanistan confidently asserted that Putin would take Kyiv in a matter of days, and so this administration withdrew our diplomats and prepared to accept another defeat.
As it became obvious the Ukrainians would fight, the administration grudgingly came around to providing them with support. Unnecessary debates – most recently regarding ATACMS missiles – over whether providing this or that kind of weapon would further provoke the Russians have weakened the impact of assistance at each stage. The result in Ukraine has been stalemate.
Why Republicans would survey this record and attack President Biden for being too strong is mysterious to us.
No one knows when and how the war in Ukraine – or this phase of the war in Ukraine – will end. But any outcome that plausibly constitutes a victory for Russia would be catastrophic for American security.
A Russian victory would raise the chances of expanded war in Europe, with Putin contemplating the seizure of more lost elements of the Russian empire, whether in whatever is left of Ukraine or beyond. It would be taken as proof by the Chinese Communists eyeing Taiwan that America is unserious, making a war in the Pacific more likely.
In general, a Russian victory would give comfort and confidence to those who hate America, not just in Moscow and Beijing, but also in Tehran and Pyongyang. Putin’s recent summit meeting with Kim – the North Korean dictator’s first foreign trip in four years – is the latest indication of a solidifying Eurasian axis hostile to America’s interests and those of our friends.
Our friends, including in places like Canberra, Tokyo, Seoul and Taipei, all of whom support Ukraine with aid, would rightly see our abandonment of Kyiv as notice that they are on their own.
The Republican Party won the Cold War and earned the trust of generations of Americans by pressing the case that freedom and prosperity at home are linked to the security of Europe and Asia.
Succumbing now to the isolationist temptation, or to the related temptation that we can simply wash our hands of European responsibilities in order to focus on Asia, despite the advertised collusion of Russia and China, will make Americans less safe. It will also convince Americans that our party is unfit to govern, hurting Republican candidates in general elections.
Isolationism is starting to infect our party’s rhetoric and policy, further risking the consignment of our party to political irrelevance. As realists who are aware of the responsibility to safeguard our nation and its interests in a dangerous world, we should reject the trope of “endless wars” as the naïve invention of the left that it is.
Republicans should also be skeptical of the notion that the fighting in Ukraine is making Americans “war-weary,” given that it is Ukraine, and not America, that is at war.
Ukrainians are fighting and dying for their freedom, all the while degrading the power of a hostile Russia that aspires, in open cooperation with China, to establish a new world order in which America’s freedom and prosperity are radically diminished. Not one American serviceman has been a casualty in Ukraine’s war of self-defense, which we are supporting with a tiny percentage of our overall defense spending.
We urge Republicans to support the continued provision of aid now so that our party might avoid political irrelevance – and so that our country might avoid tragedy.
Aaron MacLean, a Marine veteran and Senate aide, is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Mike Pompeo, a distinguished fellow at the Hudson Institute, served as the 70th U.S. secretary of State (2018-21) and director of the Central Intelligence Agency (2017-18). Follow Aaron on X @AaronBMacLean. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

A Thousand Years of Jihad on the Oldest Christian Nation
Raymond Ibrahim/September 22/2023
The Islamic scimitar is rattling with Christian blood again.'
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/122489/122489/
In late 2020, war broke out between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Two months later, peace was achieved on condition that the ancient Christian nation cede a portion of its ancestral land to its Muslim neighbor, namely Artsakh, since the twentieth century known as “Nagorno-Karabakh.”
The peace bought by such appeasement has been fickle at best. Just yesterday, Azerbaijan launched yet another full-scale military attack on the Armenians of Artsakh — after having besieged and starved them for nine months—prompting yet another “genocide alert.”
The fact is, no amount of appeasement short of total capitulation will ever satisfy Armenia’s powerful Muslim neighbors, Azerbaijan and its “big brother,” Turkey.
Appropriating Artsakh has always been only the first step of a larger project. As Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev once openly proclaimed, “Yerevan [the capital of Armenia] is our historical land and we Azerbaijanis must return to these historical lands.” He has also referred to other ancient Armenian territories, including the Zangezur and Lake Sevan regions, as “our historic lands.” Taking over those territories “is our political and strategic goal,” Aliyev maintains, “and we need to work step-by-step to get closer to it.”
But as Tigran Balayan, spokesman for Armenia’s foreign ministry, responded: “The statement about territorial claims of the president of Azerbaijan, a state appearing on the political map of the world only 100 years ago … yet again demonstrates the racist character of the ruling regime in Baku.”
This is a rather restrained and diplomatic way of saying that, not only are Azerbaijani claims absolutely false but they are also — as most falsehoods nowadays tend to be — the exact inverse of the truth.
Armenia is one of the oldest nations in the world. Armenians founded Yereyan, their current capital, in 782 BC — exactly 2,700 years before Azerbaijan came into being in 1918. And yet, here is the president of Azerbaijan waging war because “Yerevan is our historical land and we Azerbaijanis must return to these historical lands.”
Armenia was also significantly bigger, encompassing even modern-day Azerbaijan within its borders, over two thousand years ago. Then the Turkic peoples came galloping in from the east, slaughtering, enslaving, terrorizing, and stealing the lands of Armenians and other Christians in the name of jihad.
Anyone who doubts this summation should consult the “Chronicle of Matthew of Edessa” (d.1144). According to this nearly thousand-year-old chronicle, which is near coterminous with the events it describes, it was only in 1019 that “the first appearance of the bloodthirsty beasts … the savage nation of infidels called Turks entered Armenia … and mercilessly slaughtered the Christian faithful with the sword.”
Three decades later the raids were virtually nonstop. In 1049, the founder of the Turkic Seljuk Empire himself, Sultan Tughril Bey (r. 1037–1063), reached the Armenian city of Arzden, west of Lake Van, and “put the whole town to the sword, causing severe slaughter, as many as one hundred and fifty thousand persons.”
Other contemporaries confirm the devastation visited upon Arzden. “Like famished dogs,” writes Aristakes (d.1080) an eyewitness, the Turks “hurled themselves on our city, surrounded it and pushed inside, massacring the men and mowing everything down like reapers in the fields, making the city a desert. Without mercy, they incinerated those who had hidden themselves in houses and churches.”
Eleven years later, in 1060, the Turks laid siege to Sebastia (which, though now a Turkish city, was originally Armenian). Six hundred churches were destroyed, “many and innumerable people were burned [to death],” and countless women and children “were led into captivity.”
Between 1064 and 1065, Tughril’s successor, Sultan Muhammad bin Dawud Chaghri — known to posterity as Alp Arslan, one of Turkey’s unsavory but national heroes — laid siege to Ani, then the capital of Armenia. The thunderous bombardment of Muhammad’s siege engines caused the entire city to quake, and Matthew describes countless terror-stricken families huddled together and weeping — not unlike those of modern-day Artsakh, as well captured by the following recent photo from yesterday, with the following caption:
After nine months of enduring hunger, we are now in a bomb shelter — sleeping with kids who yesterday dreamed of bread & today dream of waking up tomorrow. I don’t know if we will wake up but I hope you will remember us for resisting this genocide with honor. #NagornoKarabakh
As for their ancestors, once inside Ani, the Muslims “began to mercilessly slaughter the inhabitants of the entire city… and piling up their bodies one on top of the other… Innumerable and countless boys with bright faces and pretty girls were carried off together with their mothers.”
Not only do several Christian sources document the sack of Armenia’s capital — one contemporary succinctly notes that Sultan Muhammad “rendered Ani a desert by massacres and fire” — but also so do Muslim sources, often in apocalyptic terms: “I wanted to enter the city and see it with my own eyes,” one Arab later explained. “I tried to find a street without having to walk over the corpses. But that was impossible.”
Such “was the beginning of the misfortunes of Armenia,” Matthew of Edessa concludes his account: “So, lend an ear to this melancholy recital.” This has proven to be an ominous remark; for the aforementioned history of blood and tears was, indeed, just “the beginning of the misfortunes of Armenia,” whose “melancholy recital” continues to this day.
But what was the reason the Turks invaded and so ruthlessly attacked Armenia? What “grievance” did they have? Simple: Armenia was Christian, and the Turks were Muslim — and Islam makes all non-Muslim enemies to be put to the sword until and unless they submit to Islam.
Incidentally, Islam’s animus for Christianity was on display then no less than now. Thus, during the aforementioned sack of Ani, a Muslim fighter climbed atop the city’s main cathedral “and pulled down the very heavy cross which was on the dome, throwing it to the ground,” wrote Matthew.
Made of pure silver and the “size of a man” — and now symbolic of Islam’s might over Christianity — the broken crucifix was sent as a trophy to adorn a mosque in, ironically enough, modern-day Azerbaijan. Fast forward nearly a millennium to Azerbaijan’s war on Armenia in 2020, a Muslim fighter was videotaped triumphantly shouting “Allahu Akbar!” while standing atop an Armenian church chapel where the cross had been broken off.
Such is an idea of what the Turkic peoples did to Christian Armenians — not during the Armenian Genocide of a century ago when some 1.5 million Armenians were massacred and even more displaced — but one thousand years ago when the Islamic conquest of Armenia first began.
This unrelenting history of hate makes one thing perfectly clear: all modern-day pretexts and “territorial disputes” aside, true and permanent peace between Armenia and its Muslim neighbors will only be achieved when the Christian nation has either been conquered or ceded itself into nonexistence.
Nor would it be the first to do so. It is worth recalling that the heart of what is today called “the Muslim world” — the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) — was thoroughly Christian before the sword of Islam invaded. Bit by bit, century after century after the initial seventh-century Muslim conquests and occupations, it lost its Christian identity. Its peoples were lost in the morass of Islam so that few today even remember that Egypt, Iraq, Syria, etc., were among the first, oldest, and most populous Christian nations.
Armenia — the first nation in the world to adopt Christianity — is a holdout, a thorn in Islam’s side, and, as such, will never know lasting peace from the Muslims surrounding it — not least as the West has thrown it under the bus.
**Note: Quotes from Matthew of Edessa and others were excerpted from and are documented in Ibrahim’s book, “Sword and Scimitar: Fourteen Centuries of War between Islam and the West.”
https://www.raymondibrahim.com/2023/09/20/a-thousand-years-of-jihad-on-the-oldest-christian-nation/

New Documentary Exposes the Shady Origins of the Persecution of Christians in Syria
Raymond Ibrahim/September 21/2023
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/122489/122489/
The Broken Cross, a new Arabic-language documentary, was launched and screened in Damascus on September 2 before a large audience of religious and diplomatic figures, including journalists and media. The film exposes the activities of a largely unknown (in the West) Islamic group, the Turkestan Islamist Party.
According to its director, Najdat Ismail Anzour,
This film looks at some truths concerning the Syrian tragedy. It was produced to highlight an obscure and painful angle that no one has addressed: the exodus of our loved ones of Christian faith, from their towns, their villages and their monasteries in the governorate of Idleb, which fell to the hands of armed terrorist gangs led by the Turkestan Islamist Party.… [T]here is nothing more cruel and bitter than uprooting a human being from his land, his home, his environment, his memory and everything he loves and makes him proud. This, unfortunately, is what happened to 50,000 Syrian Christians who lived in peace, friendship, and deep harmony with all components of Syrian society. This is an undisputed and striking fact of the Christian presence in Syria for more than 2000 years.
Also speaking before the Damascus screening on Sept. 2, Dr. Kamal Jafa, a geopolitical economist living in Aleppo, also emphasized the
crimes of the most dangerous international terrorist organization [Turkestan Islamist Party], which traveled thousands of kilometers from the Chinese Far East after having committed dozens of massacres in its motherland, crossed Afghanistan, Iran, Chechnya, Libya, before arriving in Syria with the support of the most important intelligence services in the world… The Turkestan Islamist Party arrived in Syria in 2011 and directly participated in the first two massacres
Although the Turkestan Islamist Party is all but known in the West, apparently it played a pivotal role in the terrorization of Syria:
Once the reputation of its fierce fighting and appalling crimes against the towns and villages of Idlib governorate were well established, the states leading the war on Syria, particularly the United States of America and Turkey, took the decision to lead 3,000 fighters from this party towards what was considered the great epic of Aleppo’ where they dominated the other armed groups pushed to invade this city….
Not only is this particular jihadist group all but unheard of in the West, but, according to Dr. Jafa, it has become strong enough to threaten nations far beyond the Middle East:
Now we find ourselves facing a problem even more dangerous for the world. Indeed, they have transformed into a kind of “Blackwater” of the Middle East that can be sent anywhere, especially since the United States removed, in 2020, the organization of the Turkestan Islamist Party from the list terrorist organizations. Therefore, they now have the freedom to move in any geographical area of the world…. [T]oday, they are more uplifted than ever, especially since they created the organizations of Al-Ansar and Al-Achbale (the lion cubs) to consolidate their fighting forces. Hence a new generation of terrorists who will destroy the whole world if this program in Syria is not put an end to, because their emirate has regrettably transformed into a new “Tora Bora.”
Three observations based on this new documentary and the remarks concerning it:
First, the atrocities experienced by the Christians of Idlib—massacres, beheadings, rapes, enslavement, and the constant desecration of churches—were indeed horrific, and it is good that a documentary film on the topic has been released.
Second, the one jihadist group that now appears to have been most responsible for these initial atrocities—the Turkestan Islamist Party—is also the one least mentioned or recognized in the West, where only “ISIS” (the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria) seems to be remembered. Of course, and as usual, there have been, are, and always will be any number of jihadist groups around the world, as they all drink from the same fount—Islam.
Perhaps the fact that the terrorist Turkestan Islamist Party consists mostly of Uighurs—who are always and everywhere presented as innocent victims of Chinese oppression—is one reason for the reticence: showing that Uighurs also exhibit the same Islamic hostility for non-Muslims and engage in jihadist activities against Christians and other minorities throws a wrench in any sympathy building efforts. A little more on this group, from a “mainstream source,” follows:
Syrian Churches have been demolished by Turkistan Islamic Party Uyghur fighters, who exalted in the acts of destruction…. In Jisr al-Shughur a Church’s cross had a TIP flag placed on top of it after the end of the battle. The Uzbek group Katibat al-Tawhid wal-Jihad (Tavhid va Jihod katibasi) released a video featuring themselves and the Uyghur Turkistan Islamic Party attacking and desecrating Christian Churches in Jisr al-Shughur. Jabhat al Nusra and Turkistan Islamic Party fighters were accused of displacing Christian residents of rural Jisr al-Shughour… Camps training children for Jihad are being run by the Turkistan Islamic Party in Syria. Uyghur child soldiers being instructed in Sharia and training with guns were depicted in a video released by TIP.
I actually watched the Arabic language video possibly made by these jihadists desecrating numerous churches and breaking crosses. When I posted it on Youtube, so that Western audiences might also be made aware, Youtube took it down and locked my account.
The final observation concerns allegations of U.S. complicity. These, of course, are true—especially under the Obama and Biden administrations. Under the former, when the so-called “Arab Spring” began, the U.S. heartily supported “freedom fighters” everywhere—in Egypt, Libya, Yemen, Syria, etc. Before long, however, these great “liberators” were revealed as jihadist terrorists with a penchant for killing Christians and destroying churches.
At this point, it’s axiomatic: Whichever Muslim nation the U.S. intervenes in for “democratic” purposes, Christian minorities are the first to experience horrific treatment. Iraq is the posterchild of this phenomenon.
https://www.raymondibrahim.com/2023/09/21/new-documentary-exposes-the-shady-origins-of-the-persecution-of-christians-in-syria/

Nagorno-Karabakh – Kremlin Has Lost Its Monopoly On Managing The Affairs Of Post-Soviet States
Dr. Vladislav L. Inozemtsev/MEMRU/September 22/2023
Russia, South Caucasus | MEMRI Daily Brief No. 524
Last week the Azerbaijani army conducted its own "special military operation" aimed at squeezing out Armenian forces from the self-proclaimed Nagorno-Karabakh Republic. Baku is trying to strengthen its grip over the part of the territory under Armenian control, facing little or no response from the Russian peacekeepers dispatched to the region in 2020.
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
On September 19, 2023, the Azeri command informed the Russians about its military plans, as Moscow stated, "just minutes before the operation had started,"[1] but Moscow did not share this news with Armenia.[2] In fact, Russia seems not only to have no intention of being involved in the fighting, but does not even have any legal ground for getting involved, since most of the agreements regulating their presence in the region have not been signed by Azerbaijan.[3] Hence, Moscow cannot engage with Baku regular forces even if it wanted to.
Russia and the Moscow-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) ignored the Azeri assaults on Armenia's territory and remained nonresponsive, as Yerevan directly asked the CSTO for military assistance as a party of the treaty.[4] In recent months, the Russian forces did nothing to end the Azeri blockade of the "Lachin corridor,"[5] the only road Armenia can use to supply the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave. Yet, as Armenia made its first attempts to rejuvenate its ties with the West – it started the ratification of the ICC statute,[6] engaged in military drills with the U.S.,[7] and sent its First Lady to Kyiv for a meeting hosted by President Zelensky's wife,[8] – the Kremlin complained about all these moves. In fact, despite the recent arrest warrants that the ICC issued for Russian President Vladimir Putin, Armenia's move to join the ICC seems to be the only way to persecute Azerbaijan for war crimes. Further, Armenia's Western-leaning policies seem to be the only response that the tiny republic could make in response to the lack of support from Russia. In 2021, the European Union resumed its talks with Armenia, which ended in 2013 when Yerevan decided to join the Eurasian Economic Union, which provided Armenia with €2.6 billion in aid and loans from Moscow.[9]
Armenia And Azerbaijan After The Soviet Collapse
Looking back at the history of the relationship between Russia and Armenia and trying to learn some lessons from the Nagorno-Karabakh crisis, it must be noticed that the current state of affairs should be no surprise. When in the 1990s, the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan became one of the bloodiest conflicts in the post-Soviet realm, Russia did its best to foster policies later termed "managed instability doctrine."[10] Moscow tried to position itself as an indispensable ally to both sides of the conflict; supplied armaments and ammunition to both parties, and tried to broker an armistice and a peace accord after hostilities began to calm down.
In 1994, Russia strongly supported the so-called Minsk process to promote an armistice. Since then, negotiations formally continued without producing any comprehensive peace treaty.[11] The Kremlin wanted to remain in control of the process, but seemingly was not interested in a clear-cut final resolution. Therefore, while Yerevan sided with Moscow, Baku made an alliance with Ankara that wished to bring the Nagorno-Karabakh area under Azerbaijani control.
It should be observed that since Armenia and Azerbaijan gained their independence after the Soviet collapse, their paths were quite different. By the mid-1990s, Azerbaijan had overcome its political quarrels and turned into a largely authoritarian state with a kind of hereditary power system. The country, which is rich in natural resources, integrated quite successfully into the regional economy, and became not only an oil supplier to the neighboring nations but also an "energy corridor" bridging Central Asia with Turkey and Europe.
Between 1991 and 2020, Azerbaijan's GDP in current dollars at the market exchange rates rose by almost 15 times,[12] and its population shot up from around seven million to over ten million people. Though Azeris used to live all over the former Soviet Union, the emigration remained moderate from independent Azerbaijan into the Azerbaijani diaspora across the world, being composed primarily of people leaving Iran, where more than 30 million Azeris live.[13]
Armenia instead went through a "non-development" path. From 2005 to 2020, its GDP stagnated,[14] and consequently more than a million people left the country in search of decent employment, which raised the remittances' flow from abroad to over 10 percent of Armenia's GDP.[15]
Concerning defense, since 2004 the Azerbaijani military budget increased from around $400 million to more than $2.6 billion in 2022, while since 2000 Armenia's defense expenditures have been 10 times less than those of Azerbaijan.[16] Armenia has a Soviet-style military, being supplied with Russian weaponry that has proven to be extremely vulnerable when confronted by Western and Turkish equipment.[17] Possessing in 1991 a nominal GDP of a bit less than nine percent of those of Azerbaijan and Turkey combined, Armenia failed to manage its economy effectively. The leaders in Yerevan lacked realistic ideas for their country, pretending it might become either a "bridge" between the West and the Eurasian Union or a cherished destination for overseas tourists.
The current crisis in Russia-Armenia relations developed because Russia never needed Armenia and never expected to sustain this non-developing nation. In 2014, as Moscow annexed Crimea and Putin prepared to establish a new integration project known as the Eurasian Economic Union, Russia suddenly "bought up" Armenia, offering around $400 million in loans and military assistance for an immediate application to join the Union. In 2015, Armenia became a member of the organization, and this was a symbolic victory for the Kremlin, since prior to this move Armenia conducted intensive negotiations with the European Union to sign an Association Agreement that included a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area treaty. However, after joining the Eurasian Economic Union, the negotiations with the EU stopped.
Only after losing in the 2020 Second Karabakh war, Yerevan ratified the Armenia-EU Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement, which took effect on March 1, 2021. While the West still tries to assist Armenia, Russia did almost nothing. In 2020, it took more than a month for Moscow to intervene diplomatically after the Azeri forces took over Shusha, the key town that opened their further advance to Nagorno-Karabakh capital, Stepanakert.
The global community – Russia included – expressed deep concern over the resuming hostilities, but no impressive results can be achieved. In fact, Azerbaijan is militarily strong, and the Kremlin is preoccupied with its war in Ukraine. Furthermore, Russia and the Western powers are looking for establishing closer ties with Turkey, thus making Ankara free to assist Baku in its efforts.
Conclusion
The development of the Karabakh conflict after 2020, as well as the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, opened a completely new chapter in the history of the post-Soviet realm. For almost 30 years after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia has remained the only major actor in its former territory, except for the Baltic states, which rapidly joined the European Union.
It commanded security and economic alliances in Eurasia, managed to solve some armed conflicts on its own conditions (as in Tajikistan where the country remained united), intervened in sovereign territories (as in Georgia in 2008 or in Ukraine in 2014), and did all this with minor involvement of external forces, or completely without them. However, starting with the 2020 Second Nagorno-Karabakh War, the post-Soviet conflicts turned into internationalized ones: external actors started to train, equip, and support local military forces that challenged the order that Moscow wished either to install or preserve.
This looks like a serious change of agenda: the Kremlin has lost its monopoly on managing the post-Soviet states' affairs both in the West (as in Ukraine and Moldova) and in the South (with all Trans-Caucasian states becoming free from Russian influence to be safeguarded by Turkey and the European nations). Central Asia's drift away from Russia is also only a matter of time, but the developments there seem to me more complex as Russia, China, the West, Turkey, and even Gulf countries all possess their interests in the region. Yet, wherever these trends may evolve, one thing looms large: Russia is now losing its status as a leading regional power, which it may never regain.
*Dr. Vladislav Inozemtsev is the MEMRI Russian Media Studies Project Special Advisor, and Founder and Director of the Moscow-based Center for Post-Industrial Studies.
[1] Forbes.ru/society/496747-zaharova-zaavila-ob-uvedomlenii-ot-baku-ob-operacii-v-karabahe-za-minuty-do-ee-nacala, September 19, 2023.
[2] Rbc.ru/politics/19/09/2023/650983479a794792de8f0803, September 19, 2023.
[3] Meduza.io/feature/2023/09/20/azerbaydzhan-nachal-bolshuyu-voynu-s-armeniey-chto-budet-delat-zapad-na-chiey-storone-rossiya-i-vazhno-li-eto, September 20, 2023.
[4] Interfax.ru/world/862580, September 16, 2023.
[5] Rbc.ru/politics/27/12/2022/63ab057d9a794751b871740f, December 27, 2022.
[6] Interfax.ru/world/919478, September 6, 2023.
[7] Rbc.ru/rbcfreenews/64ff01dc9a7947770f587b41, September 11, 2023.
[8] Kommersant.ru/doc/6198616, September 6, 2023.
[9] Media.am/en/verified/2021/09/16/29555/, September 16, 2021.
[10] Globalaffairs.ru/articles/blizhnee-zarubezhe-vsyo-dalshe-ot-rossii/, November 18, 2004.
[11] Nkr.am/ru/osce-minsk-process
[12] Data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?locations=AZ
[13] Azerbaijan.az/ru/related-information/207
[14] Data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?locations=AM
[15] Theglobaleconomy.com/Armenia/remittances_percent_GDP/
[16] Fip.am/ru/19342
[17] Kavkaz-uzel.eu/articles/328706, December 4, 2018.
https://www.memri.org/reports/nagorno-karabakh-%E2%80%93-kremlin-has-lost-its-monopoly-managing-affairs-post-soviet-states

Turkey: An Air Force Without Wings
Burak Bekdil/Gatestone Institute./September 22, 2023
The ambition of Turkish Aircraft Industries today is to build the first indigenous Turkish fighter jet, which could also be the world's first Muslim fighter aircraft, and it has invited friendly nations Azerbaijan and Pakistan join the effort. Meanwhile Turkey is trying hard to support its assertive regional policy with military might.
There is a problem: With a fleet consisting mostly of ageing F-16s and a per capita income of barely $9,000 Turkey cannot play the role of a major power.
Echoing the neo-Ottoman ambition, Colonel Ümit Yalım (ret.) recently claimed that the sovereignty of Greece's islands in the North Aegean Sea belongs to Turkey.
Erdoğan wants modern F-16s, while the U.S. Congress has a different opinion: Why give Turkey modern fighter jets if we want peace over the Aegean Sea? That leaves Turkey with one option: Make your own fighter aircraft.
Turkey's ailing economy is experiencing high inflation (at 59% year-on-year), and the country's external debt reached nearly $476 billion in March. The international credit insurance company Allianz Trade reported that the stock of Turkey's total external debt due within the next 12 months has risen to about $250 billion.
Erdoğan made one wrong strategic choice -- trying to align with Russia and America -- and left Turkey's top military planners pondering how to minimize the military and operational damage. The Turkish president should be able to understand that he cannot fully benefit from two clashing civilizations at his convenience.
The ambition of Turkish Aircraft Industries today is to build the first indigenous Turkish fighter jet, which could also be the world's first Muslim fighter aircraft. There is a problem: With a fleet consisting mostly of ageing F-16s and a per capita income of barely $9,000, Turkey cannot play the role of a major power. Pictured: A mock-up of TAI's Kaan jet fighter. (Image source: JohnNewton8/Wikimedia Commons)
Turkey, once NATO's staunch southeastern flank sentinel against the Soviet Union, still operates the alliance's second-largest military. These days, NATO's second-largest military has a problem with its aerial firepower.
Turks are proud that their Air Force (TuAF) is the world's ninth-largest. But it is not necessarily the ninth-strongest. According to the World Directory of Modern Military Aircraft, TuAF is not among the world's top 15 militaries listed. Turkey has 110 attack helicopters and 205 fighter/interceptor aircraft, according to Global Firepower. But its fleet of 1,065 military aircraft includes no dedicated attack aircraft.
Traditionally, TuAF has been dependent almost solely on U.S. technology, primarily F-16 fighter jets. In the 1980s, Turkey set a production unit, Turkish Aircraft Industries (TAI), to assemble the F-16s under license from the U.S.-based Lockheed Martin.
TAI today has a totally different ambition: To build the first indigenous Turkish fighter jet, which could also be the world's first Muslim fighter aircraft, and it has invited friendly nations Azerbaijan and Pakistan join the effort. Meanwhile Turkey is trying hard to support its assertive regional policy with military might.
There is a problem: With a fleet consisting mostly of ageing F-16s and a per capita income of barely $9,000 Turkey cannot play the role of a major power.
"We know very well from our bitter experiences that there cannot be a strong [Turkey] without a strong army." Turkey's Islamist strongman President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said at a ceremony at the Army War College. "Increasing the deterrence of the Turkish Armed Forces constitutes a necessity for our country rather than a choice."
Echoing the neo-Ottoman ambition, Colonel Ümit Yalım (ret.) recently claimed that the sovereignty of Greece's islands in the North Aegean Sea belongs to Turkey.
TuAF's nightmares began when Erdoğan moved to augment Turkey's strategic relations with Vladimir Putin's Russia. Erdoğan approved the reckless acquisition of Russia's S-400 surface-to-air missile system, which resulted in Turkey being expelled from the U.S.-led, multinational F-35 fighter jet program. Turkey planned to buy more than 100 F-35s and completely renew its fleet with the world's most advanced fighter aircraft. Expulsion from the F-35 program was Washington's answer to Erdoğan's S-400 move.
Incidentally, the Russian S-400 missiles were delivered to Turkey but remain "unpacked" in some military hangar, as Erdoğan fears further U.S. sanctions.
What are Turkey's options before its military aircraft fleet comes to an operational halt?
Russia? Not again. Erdoğan cannot risk confronting the West with another Russian adventure, especially when he is loudly pleading for Western money to stop, or slow down, Turkey's economic downfall. China? Beijing will not share critical technology with NATO member Turkey. Possible, but Erdoğan wants modern F-16s, while the U.S. Congress has a different opinion: Why give Turkey modern fighter jets if we want peace over the Aegean Sea? That leaves Turkey with one option: Make your own fighter aircraft.
Erdoğan boasts that the first Turkish fighter jet, the Kaan, will fly before the end of the year. However, the reality is different. True, the first Kaan is progressing at a TAI hangar. But it is far from flying with full mission capabilities. TAI has a stock of only eight U.S.-made jet engines, to power four Kaans. What about the rest? Hundreds of future aircraft to be built? The answer is that Turkey will also have to develop an indigenous jet engine. How and when are the questions no one volunteers to answer.
A prototype Kaan can fly for political propaganda ahead of critical municipal elections next March. Like a paper airplane without the systems necessary for full mission flights. Then there are the financial problems.
Turkey's ailing economy is experiencing high inflation (at 59% year-on-year), and the country's external debt reached nearly $476 billion in March. The international credit insurance company Allianz Trade reported that the stock of Turkey's total external debt due within the next 12 months has risen to about $250 billion.
To share the big financial burden of development and production and give the planned aircraft a "Muslim identity," Turkey has invited Azerbaijan and Pakistan to join the Kaan partnership. Hydrocarbon-rich Azerbaijan has money to invest, but Pakistan, which already has a deal with China for the JF-17 built under license by Pakistan Aeronautical Complex and Chengdu Aircraft Corp., does not have the funds.
Rahul Monahar Yelwe, a senior research fellow at the Center for Strategic Studies, recently told EurAsian Times that Azerbaijan and Pakistan could not contribute substantially to the Kaan project, primarily due to the demanding nature of a fifth-generation fighter jet. Yelwe emphasized that even developing a fourth-generation aircraft requires a significant financial investment. Yelwe unequivocally dismissed the possibility of Pakistan providing technological support (which it had learned from the JF-17 project) to the Turkish program.
Erdoğan made one wrong strategic choice -- trying to align with Russia and America -- and left Turkey's top military planners pondering how to minimize the military and operational damage. The Turkish president should be able to understand that he cannot fully benefit from two clashing civilizations at his convenience.
**Burak Bekdil, one of Turkey's leading journalists, was recently fired from the country's most noted newspaper after 29 years, for writing in Gatestone what is taking place in Turkey. He is a Fellow at the Middle East Forum.
© 2023 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Question: “What does it mean that humanity is made in the image of God?”
GotQuestions.org./September 22, 2023
Answer: On the last day of creation, God said, “Let us make man in our image, in our likeness” (Genesis 1:26). Thus, He finished His work with a “personal touch.” God formed Adam from the dust and gave him life by sharing His own breath (Genesis 2:7). Accordingly, humanity is unique among all God’s creations, having both a material body and an immaterial soul/spirit.
Having the “image” or “likeness” of God means, in the simplest terms, that we were made to resemble God. Adam did not resemble God in the sense of God’s having flesh and blood. Scripture says that “God is spirit” (John 4:24) and therefore exists without a body. However, Adam’s body did mirror the life of God insofar as it was created in perfect health and was not subject to death.
The image of God (Latin, imago dei) refers to the immaterial part of humanity. It sets human beings apart from the animal world, fits them for the dominion God intended them to have over the earth (Genesis 1:28), and enables them to commune with their Maker. It is a likeness mentally, morally, and socially.
Mentally, humanity was created as a rational, volitional agent. In other words, human beings can reason and choose. This is a reflection of God’s intellect and freedom. Anytime someone invents a machine, writes a book, paints a landscape, enjoys a symphony, calculates a sum, or names a pet, he or she is proclaiming the fact that we are made in God’s image.
Morally, humanity was created in righteousness and perfect innocence, a reflection of God’s holiness. God saw all He had made (humanity included) and called it “very good” (Genesis 1:31). Our conscience or “moral compass” is a vestige of that original state. Whenever someone writes a law, recoils from evil, praises good behavior, or feels guilty, he or she is confirming the fact that we are made in God’s own image.
Socially, humanity was created for fellowship. This reflects God’s triune nature and His love. In Eden, humanity’s primary relationship was with God (Genesis 3:8 implies fellowship with God), and God made the first woman because “it is not good for the man to be alone” (Genesis 2:18). Every time someone marries, makes a friend, hugs a child, or attends church, he or she is demonstrating the fact that we are made in the likeness of God.
Part of being made in God’s image is that Adam had the capacity to make free choices. Although they were given a righteous nature, Adam and Eve made an evil choice to rebel against their Creator. In so doing, they marred the image of God within themselves, and passed that damaged likeness on to all their descendants (Romans 5:12). Today, we still bear the image of God (James 3:9), but we also bear the scars of sin. Mentally, morally, socially, and physically, we show the effects of sin.
The good news is that when God redeems an individual, He begins to restore the original image of God, creating a “new self, created to be like God in true righteousness and holiness” (Ephesians 4:24). That redemption is only available by God’s grace through faith in Jesus Christ as our Savior from the sin that separates us from God (Ephesians 2:8-9). Through Christ, we are made new creations in the likeness of God (2 Corinthians 5:17).

The Islamic State’s Shadow Governance in Eastern Syria Since the Fall of Baghuz
Dr. Aaron Y. Zelin and Dr. Devorah Margolin/Combating Terrorism Center/September 22/2023
https://ctc.westpoint.edu/the-islamic-states-shadow-governance-in-eastern-syria-since-the-fall-of-baghuz/
Abstract: Since losing its last semblance of control in Syria in March 2019, the Islamic State has spent the last four and a half years not only attempting to survive, but also working to create the conditions for returning to territorial control. While it is true that the organization’s insurgency has been degraded in recent years, only focusing on the Islamic State’s attack claims and propaganda misses an important trend happening at the local level: Despite the best efforts of the Global Coalition Against the Islamic State and the Syrian Democratic Forces, the Islamic State has continued attempts to govern as shadow actors in eastern Syria. The Islamic State’s shadow governance efforts can be seen occurring on four main axes: taxes, moral policing, administrative documents, and retaking of territory (albeit for brief periods of time). The Islamic State’s level of governance today is nowhere near where it was when it controlled territory the size of Britain from 2014-2017. Yet, these governance attempts illustrate that the group may be stronger than many assume, while also highlighting that the group’s interest in governing and controlling territory has not waned in recent years.
Since the Islamic State lost its last bit of physical territory in Baghuz al-Fawqani, Syria, in March 2019, much focus has unsurprisingly been placed on the group’s terrorism and insurgency campaign to try to retake territory, as well as the indefinite detention of approximately 60,000 Islamic State-affiliated individuals in northeast Syria.a Yet, quietly, within a few short months of the group’s territorial collapse, there were already signs that it had not given up its governance ambitions and was still attempting to enforce its writ in territories it once held. As early as June 2019, evidence of the Islamic State’s governance attempts appeared in Deir ez-Zor Province (formerly the Islamic State’s Wilayat al-Khayr) and Hasakah Province (formerly the group’s Wilayat al-Barakah).
Although the Islamic State has yet to regain permanent tamkin (consolidated administrative control)1 over any area in eastern Syria, through its shadow governance activities over the past four years, the group has continued to project power and instill fear into local populations across eastern Syria. In doing so, the Islamic State seeks to create a mechanism to reimplement its caliphate project quickly if it were ever able to occupy territory again in the future. More immediately, however, these efforts by the Islamic State provide financial infrastructure for the organization to continue its terrorism and insurgency campaign, primarily directed against the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), including SDF-run detention centers and prisons holding Islamic State-affiliated individuals. For example, on July 31, 2023, Internal Security Forces in northeast Syria (supported by coalition forces) arrested an Islamic State-affiliated leader accused of conducting finance operations in Deir ez-Zor.2
Therefore, while it is important to continue to track the Islamic State’s claimed attacks and ongoing insurgency, doing so without understanding evolving dynamics at the local environment misses the broader aperture of Islamic State activity. In order to understand the full nature of the Islamic State threat today in Syria, one must look below easily quantifiable actions at what the group could be hiding, specifically indicators that can evaluate its strength below the surface. This is in part because over the past few years, a lot of the Islamic State’s governance activity has occurred at night or in areas where the SDF has reduced operations due to security concerns for its own safety. To address this gap in understanding the current status of the Islamic State, this article will explore the group’s history of governance and analyze the reality of the Islamic State’s propaganda and claims of responsibility for attacks since the fall of its territorial control, before examining its shadow governance efforts in eastern Syria between 2019 and 2023.
The Islamic State’s History of Governance
The Islamic State movement’s long history can be broken into several distinct periods.3 The group’s foundation in the 1990s until 2006 was defined by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi’s leadership. This saw the group move from the training camps of Afghanistan to Iraq where, under the name Jama’at al-Tawhid wa-l-Jihad and later al-Qa`ida in the Land of Two Rivers (better known as al-Qa`ida in Iraq, or AQI), it rose to notoriety for waging a bloody sectarian insurgency.
In October 2006, the group’s next phase began. Then-leader of AQI, Abu Ayyub al-Masri (Abu Hamza al-Muhajir), pledged allegiance to the new self-declared leader of the faithful, Abu Umar al-Baghdadi, and with it established its first self-declared state, the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI). In January 2007, ISI’s Shaykh ‘Uthman ‘Abd al-Rahman al-Tamimi released a book explaining the group’s rationale for declaring its state.4 In his writing, al-Tamimi outlined ISI’s responsibilities as a state in the areas it governs: “prosecuting criminals and sinners, implementation of the hudud (fixed punishments in the Qur’an and Hadith), mediating and resolving conflicts, providing security, distributing food and relief, and selling oil and gas.”5
Although ISI proclaimed itself as a state,6 the Islamic State of Iraq controlled limited territory, for insubstantial amounts of time—due to the U.S. military occupation, but also as a consequence of rival insurgent and tribal competition for power. ISI attempted to show a “veneer of legitimacy” by establishing a cabinet of ministries first in April 2007 and again in September 2009. Nevertheless, because of numerous obstacles facing ISI, the group was unable to properly implement the administrative responsibilities al-Tamimi outlined.7 Instead, ISI primarily focused on “instituting hisba (moral policing) activities and targeting enemies as murtadin (apostates) who were seen as legitimate to target and kill.”8 This period helped to set up the Islamic State’s later governance, which was marshaled by Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi after he became the leader in 2010 when al-Muhajir and Abu Umar were killed.
The Islamic State movement’s next period spanned 2012 to 2017 and marked its transnational expansion. Renamed in April 2013 to the Islamic State in Iraq and al-Sham (aka ISIL, the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant), ISIL’s main focus was to present itself in a positive light to the Syrian population through da’wa (missionary) forums and by providing services,9 prior to a wave of infighting that began in January 2014 between ISIL and revolutionary, Islamist, and other jihadi factions in Syria.10 As ISIL, the group also carried out “softer” moral policing, including burning cigarettes and confiscating alcohol.
Yet, like a decade prior, ISIL killed other leaders from rival Syrian insurgent groups, prompting backlash. Due to infighting, ISIL was pushed out of Latakia, Idlib, and parts of Aleppo between January and March 2014.11 As a result, the organization focused its state-building project in eastern Syria in Raqqa governorate and parts of Deir ez-Zor governorate. After ISIL’s consolidation in the east, reports of “harsher punishments began to appear, such as cutting off hands for robbery or crucifying alleged apostates.”12 As ISIL, the group “sought to appear as a state-like entity, showing off its various administrative departments including its da’wa offices, shariah courts, religious schools, police stations, and local municipalities, among others.”13 Despite these efforts, during this period the group performed “an uneven governance strategy across its proto-wilayat (provinces).”14
In June 2014, the group captured Mosul and declared its caliphate, changing its name again—to simply the Islamic State. During this time, the Islamic State took control of large swaths of territory across Syria and Iraq, and created an intricate bureaucratic system that sought to touch on and govern all aspects of the lives of those that lived under its control.15 When compared with its first state as ISI and its building toward a second state as ISIL, the post-June 2014 Islamic State governance structures, plans, and implementation were far superior.
At its height, the Islamic State operated government dawawin (administrations; diwan as singular) across numerous provinces.16 These included: Administration of the Judiciary and Grievances, Administration of the Hisba (Morality Police), Administration of Da’wa (Proselytization) and Mosques, Administration of Zakat and Charities, Administration of the Soldiers, Administration of Public Security, Administration of the Treasury (Finance), Administration of Media, Administration of Education, Administration of Health, Administration of Agriculture and Livestock, Administration of (Natural) Resources, Administration of Services (Water, Electricity), Administration of Spoils of War, and Administration of Real Estate and Land Tax. It used these government bodies to regulate social relationships, extract resources from local populations, and appropriate those resources for their own gain.17 But also during this period, the Islamic State constantly struggled to balance its ideology with the practical realities of its state-building project.
From 2017 to today, the Islamic State has been characterized by decline. Leading up to the full loss of territory in March 2019, the Islamic State took active measures to consolidate its organizational structure and to position itself to survive as an underground insurgent group. Unlike previously when it had a series of wilayat (provinces) within a particular country, the group melded them together into one “province” to streamline decision-making and operations. In the case of Syria, this transformed Wilayat al-Raqqah, Wilayat Halab, Wilayat al-Barakah, Wilayat al-Khayr, Wilayat al-Furat, Wilayat Homs, Wilayat Hamah, Wilayat Dimashq, Wilayat Hawran to just Wilayat al-Sham in mid-July 2018.b However, it is important to acknowledge that despite the fact that the Islamic State has been on the defensive, it retains its governance ambitions.
An Islamic State fighter is featured in the Islamic State media product “Days With Soldiers of the Caliphate During the Blessed Month of Ramadan,” the Islamic State’s Wilayat al-Sham, al-Khayr (Deir ez-Zor), Ramadan (April 12-May 11) 2021.
Do Numbers Tell the Whole Story? The Current State of Islamic State Propaganda and Claimed Attacks
Since 2019, the Islamic State has been relatively quiet on the propaganda front when it comes to eastern Syria. Most of the limited focus has been on the so-called daily life in the caliphate. But, without the physical territory it once held, today it usually features fighters hanging around one another, praying, cooking, or preparing for a battle during Ramadan or Eid al-Adha.
From mid-2019 to mid-2020, the Islamic State’s Wilayat al-Sham (in its former provinces of al-Khayr and al-Barakah) media office in Syria released three videos threatening its various enemies (SDF, coalition, local leaders, and activists) in northeast and eastern Syria.18 This was accompanied by an Al Naba—the Islamic State’s weekly newsletter—interview in mid-November 2020 with Islamic State commander Abu Mansur al-Ansari in which he stated how terrible life had become under SDF rule in the area and that the Islamic State would continue to fight for people locally against this so-called “apostate” force.19 More recently, an Al Naba editorial in late January 2022, praised Islamic State fighters for the prison break attack earlier that month at Ghwayran.20
Since 2019, the majority of Islamic State propaganda from eastern Syria has focused on daily life and the group’s enemies. In 2022, a unique piece of video propaganda was published showing Islamic State fighters in eastern Syria praising the efforts of their counterparts in the Islamic State’s self-proclaimed provinces in West Africa, the Sahel, and Central Africa.21 In doing so, the Islamic State was able to contextualize the group’s more successful operations in other areas around the world.
When zooming out to examine the rest of Syria, the Islamic State’s weekly newsletter Al Naba has continued to feature polemics against enemies outside of its core forces in eastern Syria.22 Since the fall of Baghuz, the Islamic State has verbally gone after the jihadi group that controls northwest Syria, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, nine times, the Assad regime four times, the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army twice, and Russian forces once.23
Several successful counter-operations against the Islamic State have resulted in the death of four leaders since October 2019, including Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurashi, Abu al-Hasan al-Hashimi al-Qurashi, and very recently Abu al-Husayn al-Husayni al-Qurashi. Islamic State propaganda has featured several new bayat (religious oaths of allegiance) taken by fighters in the region following the ascension of each new leader.24 When examining the current state of Islamic State propaganda, the group has had more overall losses than wins. That being said, it has continued its calls to break its supporters free from prisons and detention camps.25 In many ways, the Islamic State hopes to wait out its strongest enemy: the United States. If Washington were to withdraw U.S. forces from northeastern Syria, this would not only animate the Islamic State’s propaganda, but also provide the space for the group to up the tempo of its now lagging operations.
When looking closer at the group’s insurgency, the Global Coalition Against the Islamic State has seen many successes in the fight against the group since 2019. Successful counter-financing operations coupled with leadership attrition have significantly degraded the group. The military operations against the Islamic State have been led by the Combined Joint Task Force-Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTF-OIR)—stood up by U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM)—which found in 2023 that “ISIS capabilities remained ‘degraded’ due to Coalition-assisted counterterrorism pressure, but the group continued to pose a threat.”26
This finding by CJTF-OIR seemingly corresponds with quantifiable statistics on the ground. Over the past four years, the number of claimed attacks by the Islamic State in Syria has gone down significantly every year; it dropped from 1,055 in 2019, to 608 in 2020, to 368 in 2021, to 297 in 2022. Thus far, in 2023, the Islamic State has claimed only 90 attacks in Syria as of September 19. This means that the Islamic State is on pace for 125 attacks in Syria in 2023, the lowest number of claimed operations to date.
Despite these impressive statistics highlighting counter-operations against the Islamic State, researchers such as Aymenn Al-Tamimi, Haid Haid, Gregory Waters, and Charlie Winter have identified that the Islamic State has been underreporting its claimed attacks in different parts of Syria, including the “badiyah” Homs desert region and in the Hawran in southern Syria.27 These scholars highlight that this is due to two possible reasons, either a concerted effort to underreport these attacks, or that Islamic State propagandists have been unaware of the full scope of the group’s ground operations due to communication issues.
According to a series of leaked internal Islamic State documents originating from the fall of 2020,28 this has also been the case in eastern Syria in the Islamic State’s Wilayat al-Khayr alongside Homs and the Hawran. According to these internal documents, the rationale for underreporting the number of attacks appears to be twofold in all three territories: first, worries over greater enemy action (the Assad regime and the anti-regime rebel insurgents) against the Islamic State if it publicizes the attacks it has conducted; and second, a lack of communication and media equipment to record or share information (audio/visual) from the attacks to the Central Media Diwan. In one of the letters, a media emir named Saqr Abu Tayim stated that some cells in Wilayat al-Khayr, for example, only have “one mobile device” and do not receive enough funding “to subscribe to the Internet.”29
While those two factors are relevant, there is also another that came up within these three territories in the leaked internal Islamic State documents and seems to be most pertinent to this discussion: Namely, there is a rift between the media and military officials within the Islamic State’s operations. Military officials overruled the group’s media officials due to security concerns or not seeming to think claiming everything is always important.30 The documents also alleged that Islamic State military officials sometimes remove details from reports on claimed operations in order to downplay the extent of attacks. The documents further contended that this “suppression policy” is not always used consistently, as military officials are sometimes okay with reporting on an attack in one area one day, but refuse to grant approval the next day.31 The indications of under-reporting of attacks by the Islamic State discussed above and further discussed immediately below suggest that although these Islamic State documents are nearly three years old now, these trends and rifts remain consistent.
One way of digging deeper on the degree to which the Islamic State may be underreporting attacks is to examine data reported by the Rojava Information Center (RIC) on Islamic State sleeper cell attacks in SDF-controlled areas since the fall of the Islamic State’s territorial control. Similar to the data on Islamic State-claimed attacks, this RIC data should also be caveated, as the RIC is closely aligned with the SDF, who have their own interests in the current situation. Moreover, when looking at the data side by side, it is important to acknowledge that the Islamic State’s claimed numbers are for all of Syria, while RIC’s are only for the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES), the Kurdish civil government operating in the northeast region of the country.
With that said, RIC data also confirms that there has also been a drop in Islamic State attacks over the years: from 906 attacks in 2019, to 572 attacks in 2020, to 274 attacks in 2021, and a small spike with 285 attacks in 2022.32 Thus far in 2023, the RIC has recorded 139 Islamic State attacks through August, which equates to being on track for 208 attacks by end of year.33 Therefore, while there has been a drop since 2021, Islamic State attacks logged by the RIC in eastern Syria have remained relatively stagnant and have seemingly not decreased as the rate suggested by the Islamic State’s Syria-wide claims. This data gives further credibility to the theory that the Islamic State is underreporting its claims and that the group has remained more resilient than its attack claims suggest, even though three of its highest leaders have been killed in the past year and a half.
Moreover, when combined with the revelations from the leaked internal Islamic State documents, it would suggest that if the military officials within the Islamic State decide at any point in the future to be more forthcoming about operations, the perception of the group’s strength could alter quickly.
It is plausible that Islamic State military officials are conducting hybrid information warfare to lull their enemies into believing the group is weaker than it actually is. This campaign of suppression is also likely targeted toward the United States in particular, the key player in the fight against the Islamic State. In recent years, the Islamic State’s messaging has consistently claimed that the United States has been weakened since COVID-19. For example, in the most recent message from the Islamic State’s official spokesperson on August 3, 2023, announcing the newest “caliph,” Abu Hudhayfah al-Ansari stated:
As for crusader America: in the past, God inflicted torture upon you at our hands. Today, He inflicts torture upon you from Himself as a just punishment for your war against God’s loyal followers. By God, to us it is the best torture since we give glory to Him as the lord of honour. It is most healing to our hearts, and most grievous and severe to you. It started with the coronavirus [Covid-19] plague, and then came its economic consequences and crises for you. It does not end with your immersion in the quagmire of a crusader-crusader war, which exhausted your economy and military materials. Worry, unease, and fear is even apparent in the statements of your military officials due to the near depletion of your military arsenal designated for proxy wars. You are now experiencing your dying days and consecutive misfortunes. Praise and thanks be to God. We lie in wait for you with more, God willing.34
Therefore, it appears that the Islamic State is waiting for the United States to lose interest in the region, biding its time for the right moment to come back when the context is more favorable to it. This is even more plausible if the United States were to decide to withdraw forces from northeastern Syria if there is a new American president in January 2025, given former President Trump’s never-followed-through wishes to withdraw U.S. troops from Syria.35
Overall, the Global Coalition Against the Islamic State has rightly sought to highlight successful operations against the group, and the reported numbers from both the Islamic State itself and the RIC both suggest these operations have degraded the group. However, because the group appears to have held back on reporting attacks, it may not be as weak as appears. With this important context established, this article now explores the Islamic State’s shadow governance efforts since 2019.
Shadow Governance Efforts
Only focusing on the Islamic State’s claims of responsibility or propaganda may distort the picture of the group’s strength or seemingly lack thereof. A true picture of the threat posed by the group also needs to take account of the Islamic State’s on-the-ground governance efforts, however intermittent and unsophisticated compared to the heyday of its caliphate. The authors divide these efforts into four parts: taxes, moral policing, administrative documents, and retaking of territory (albeit briefly).
Taxes
One way the Islamic State has attempted to maintain influence in eastern Syria is through the kulfa sultaniyah (royal cost)36 tax whereby it targets oil merchants, landowners, farmers, business owners, shop keepers, doctors, millers, bakers, fuel traders, pharmacists, money exchangers, sheep breeders, and herders.37 The Islamic State reportedly charges 2.5 percent on the value of individuals’ savings and goods.38 The group calls it the kulfa sultaniyah tax instead of the traditional zakat tax because it does not have tamkin over the territory and can only implement the zakat once it formally does so. The Islamic State is able to target potential taxpayers through a network of informants that “monitor sales locations, document quantities sold, and identify recipients.”39
This taxation has several implications. First, the Islamic State uses it as an attempt to demonstrate it still has some semblance of influence in eastern Syria. The ability to collect taxes shows that its authority and influence is not all lost. Second, the group uses this as a mechanism to strike fear into local populations, even going so far as to threaten individuals via WhatsApp to extort such payments.40 The Islamic State has also been known to blow up locals’ stores, houses, or cars if individuals do not pay these taxes.41 For instance, in mid-October 2022, the group blew up a money exchange and money transfer shop called Maktab al-Iman in the town of al-Izbah, due to the owner not paying the tax.42
The aforementioned WhatsApp extortion messages reportedly come from unknown numbers and one-day-used SIMs with alleged receipts bearing the Islamic State official seal.43 These types of activities have been reported across eastern Syria in al-Hawajiz, Diban, al-Rughayb, al-Busayrah, al-Izbah, Hatlah, Khasham, al-Tabiyah, and al-Suwar.44 However, these activities have likely occurred elsewhere as well.
In the latter half of 2021, Islamic State fighters stormed a number of oil fields (in Subaihan,45 Kharata,46 Abu Habba,47 al-Taym,48 and Daas49), demanding a cut of the oil revenue and threatening to kill investors if they were not paid. When an individual does decide to pay the tax, the Islamic State then provides an official administrative receipt for the exchange to show proof that it has been paid (like it did at the height of its governance) so that no other Islamic State members continue to bother them about further payments.50 This provides yet another layer to the Islamic State’s attempts to legitimize itself as being the true power broker locally.
Beyond helping finance the Islamic State’s continued operations, locals have noted that Islamic State fighters making threats have also stated that the funds would go to the women and children held in IDP camps such as Al-Hol, as well as supporting the families of killed Islamic State fighters.51
Moral Policing
Another key component in the Islamic State’s governance infrastructure has been its hisbah (moral policing) patrols. With patrols regulating both men and women, the Islamic State utilized the hisbah to implement its gendered system of control in the territories it administered.52 To showcase that it has continued to administer such justice since 2019, the Islamic State has, for instance, raided shops in villages like Gharibah al-Sharqiya and confiscated cigarette packs and then burnt them in front of onlookers in the center of the village. The group has also blown up schools in places such as al-Hawajiz for supposedly teaching what the group deems an un-Islamic education.53 Similarly, in September 2020, four Islamic State members paraded through al-Busayrah while chanting “dawlat al-islamiyah baqiyah” (the Islamic State remains), and destroyed a shop selling hookahs, as smoking shisha is against the group’s interpretations of Islam.54
In late June 2021, there were reports of a number of incidents in the eastern Deir ez-Zor countryside of the Islamic State’s hisbah apparatus harassing and warning different segments of the population to stop conducting certain activities that violate the group’s morality laws.55 Islamic State members stopped a taxi transporting women to work on farmland and demanded that they not wear makeup.56 These same Islamic State-affiliated individuals also called on all public transportation operators not to transport women contravening the group’s approved dress code.57 The Islamic State also threatened restaurant and cafe owners for playing live and recorded music.58 In late May 2023, Islamic State members posted leaflets on walls in mosques and public places in the town of al-Shuhayl that ordered women to commit to the group’s version of modesty, including wearing the niqab or face punishment.59 Similar leaflets were found in al-Tayana in early August 2023 as well.60 These calls harkened back to the peak of the Islamic State caliphate.61
Beyond warnings, the Islamic State hisbah killed an individual the group claimed was practicing sorcery and other individuals supposedly selling drugs.62 The Islamic State hisbah also burned a liquor store and confiscated large quantities of tobacco.63 This makes it clear that although the Islamic State is no longer actively controlling territory, it is seeking to still control the behavior of local populations.
Administrative Documents
Another method the Islamic State has used to showcase its relevance and endurance is by continuing to post administrative documents (official governmental documents versus propaganda) from its Wilayat al-Khayr and Wilayat al-Barakah and then subsequently from its Wilayat al-Sham (Syria Province) office. For example, in October 2019, the Islamic State printed a statement directed at those working in the education sector for the AANES, warning them not to work with this “atheistic” system.64 The group stated that it would attack individuals that did not abide by its order. These threats caused female teachers in particular to continue to comply with the Islamic State’s ‘modesty’ strictures. For example, one 28-year-old female teacher stated that she continued to wear the full-face and body niqab while teaching in a local elementary school because she was afraid to expose her face in front of her students, who were all below the age of nine.65
The Islamic State’s general security official in the region issued additional threats in April 2020 via a hand-written pamphlet that was distributed door-to-door in al-Husseiniyah village, again, warning that anyone who was working with the AANES, or the SDF this time—whether as a combatant, teacher, or council member—was a legitimate target in the Islamic State’s ongoing assassination campaign.66 Furthermore, following the implementation of a new school curriculum by the AANES, the Islamic State released an administrative document under its al-Barakah province again threatening teachers and institutions if they implemented the changes, because the group deemed them un-Islamic.67 The Islamic State sought to utilize and co-opt pockets of local anger against the new curriculum from the general Arab populace, some of whom also saw it as foreign to their more traditional education.
In March 2021, the Islamic State became even more brazen, releasing an administrative document with the names of 27 people from the town of Jadid Akidat who were described as apostates because of their supposed cooperation with the SDF.68 The document threatened that if these individuals did not repent, they would face death and their homes would be destroyed.69 The group also warned that additional names would be added to the list soon, illustrating the scope of the Islamic State’s assassination campaign just in one village.70
Highlighting the influence the Islamic State has continued to hold, according to a February 2022 investigation from The Washington Post, one way the organization has been able to keep track of local residents is through informants it pays off.71 As highlighted above, despite its lack of control of physical territory, the Islamic State has sought to continue to release administrative documents seeking to enforce its writ on the local populace.
Retaking Territory Briefly
Due to strategic restraints, the SDF often withdraws from rural villages when the sun goes down due to high security concerns.72 This limited gap in governance and control has allowed the Islamic State to take advantage of the situation and occupy parts of villages overnight. In doing so, it not only undermines the SDF operations in the area, but shows local populations that not only was it not defeated, but it can still exert power, even if not permanent control.
In addition to its nighttime operations, in late November 2019, Islamic State elements controlled parts of al-Busayrah and Ibrihimah wherein they set up checkpoints and scrutinized individuals passing through against their records of residents in the area from when they were fully in charge.73 According to a Syria Direct source in the Special Protection Division of the Internal Security Forces of the AANES in mid-June 2022, there are direct “instructions from leadership [of the Internal Security Forces] not to travel at night on the highways between cities, especially isolated [ones]” and that there are remote areas “with no security and military checkpoints” whatsoever.74
Since mid-July 2022, there have also been reports from locals in places like Diban and Sweidan that the Islamic State is once again openly recruiting individuals in mosques and squares.75 The group also has spaces to run so-called “repentance” sessions to convince individuals to follow its ideological path. In one instance, the Islamic State promised locals salaries of $150-$200 per month, a personal weapon and motorcycle, and a future guarantee to financially support recruits’ families if they were killed in the line of duty. The paying of these salaries harkens back to the Islamic State’s peak, where it had thousands of individuals on its payroll.76 Through new recruitment efforts, this has allowed the Islamic State in Diban and Hawajiz, for example, to set-up daytime checkpoints between regime and SDF-controlled areas to push its aforementioned kulfa sultaniyah and hisbah agenda upon travelers. According to SDF officials speaking to Voice of America in October 2022, the Islamic State has had more room to operate in the eastern Syria due to SDF “preoccupation with other security threats facing the region,” such as the Turkish-backed campaign of the Syrian National Army (SNA) to fight the SDF.77 This claim, however, lacks credibility given the SNA has been attacking SDF targets for more than a half of a decade.
More recently, in late March 2023, locals began describing the towns of al-Shuhayl, al-Busayrah, and Diban as the “Bermuda Triangle” due to the Islamic State’s sway over the areas.78 Moreover, in another one of the Islamic State leaked documents, it claimed that 70 percent of its fighters were based in these areas.79 Residents have recently been too fearful to let the SDF know about the Islamic State’s positions, because the Islamic State uses its records of locals from the time when it was in territorial control of the area to threaten local populations into compliance. For instance, a resident from Hajin who was picked up by the Islamic State at a checkpoint in Diban was later found beheaded by the group in the town of Sweidan.80 Moreover, in July 2023, members of the Islamic State openly participated in a large caravan demonstration through the town of al-Izbah against the Iraqi Christian individual that had recently burned the Qur’an in Sweden.81
Conclusion
The fight in Syria against the Islamic State continues, though as time goes on, some of the coalition against the group seems to be losing resolve to continue for the long term. With increased normalization with the Assad regime and escalating conflicts in Africa and Europe, there appears to be a growing perception by the political class in North America and Europe, and many in the populace, that there is no reason to remain in Syria. While international events around the world appear to be pulling attention away from the activities of the Islamic State, it is important to remain focused on the group, its insurgency, and its future governance ambitions.
Local events on the ground also appear to highlight an unclear future for the region. Dissatisfaction with the SDF’s governance agenda seems to have hit a breaking point on August 27, 2023, when the SDF arrested Ahmad al-Khubayl (Abu Khawla), the head of the Deir ez-Zor Military Council for alleged “communication and coordination with external entities hostile to the revolution, committing criminal offenses and engaging in drug trafficking, mismanaging of the security situation.”82 The SDF also pointed to “his negative role in increasing the activities of ISIS cells, and exploiting his position for personal and familial interests.”83 Some may see recent events as an opportunity for the Assad regime to take advantage of the unstable situation;84 yet, there is no love lost between many of the tribes and the regime. While it is important to track the ongoing relationship between the AANES and local tribes,85 in the fight against the Islamic State, it is paramount to not lose sight of the group’s ambitions and the possible opportunities for it to take advantage. As the Islamic State itself recently taunted, it sees these events as part of a broader “world order reeling,” which God has arranged to “prepare the land” for creation of a “divine order” whose “nucleus has been established by the [Islamic State] Caliphate.”86
Today, the Islamic State’s insurgency capabilities appear to be declining due to Coalition operations. However, as detailed through the authors’ analysis, these numbers may not be all that they appear, and those focusing on countering the Islamic State should not become over reliant on these statistics.
The various forms of Islamic State shadow governance detailed above highlight that the group appears to have more control than what its official media output reveals. This analysis has painted a more complicated picture of a resilient Islamic State that seeks to take advantage of any crack in the foundation of AANES governance or any lull in the SDF and coalition’s counterterrorism operations.
This resilience by the Islamic State means that if the campaign against the group loosens—either because of another tribal uprising,87 the SDF being more focused on Turkey, the United States withdrawing from Syria, or the Assad regime and its allies taking over the area—the group could resurge quickly. The Islamic State has learned from its past governance and has laid the foundation for a future administration. Even if it sounds far-fetched now, a reasonable worst-case scenario is that the Islamic State could rapidly take advantage of a changed local context to attempt to carve out a small statelet in eastern Syria again. CTC
*Dr. Aaron Y. Zelin is the Richard Borow Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, where he also directs the Islamic State Worldwide Activity Map project. He is also a Visiting Research Scholar in the Department of Politics at Brandeis University and founder of Jihadology. Dr. Zelin is the author of the books Your Sons Are At Your Service: Tunisia’s Missionaries of Jihad (Columbia University Press, 2020), The Age of Political Jihadism: A Study of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (Rowman & Littlefield, 2023), and is currently working on another titled Heartland of the Believers: A History of Syrian Jihadism. X: @azelin
*Dr. Devorah Margolin is the Blumenstein-Rosenbloom Fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy and an Adjunct Professor at Georgetown University. Her research primarily focuses on terrorism governance, terrorism financing, the role of propaganda and strategic communications, countering/preventing violent extremism, and the role of women and gender in violent extremism. Dr. Margolin is the co-editor of Jihadist Terror: New Threats, New Responses (I.B. Tauris, 2019). X: @DevorahMargolin
© 2023 Aaron Zelin, Devorah Margolin
Substantive Notes
[a] This number includes approximately 50,000 individuals held in Al-Hol and Roj camps, and approximately 10,000 individuals held across 26 SDF-run facilities. See “Lead Inspector General, Operation Inherent Resolve: Lead Inspector General Report to the United States Congress, January 1, 2023–March 31, 2023,” U.S. Department of Defense, May 2, 2023.
[b] See the change in how the Islamic State claimed attacks in its weekly Al Naba newsletter between issue 139 and 140. The July 12, 2018, issue still used the various wilayat for Syria, while the July 19, 2018, issue began describing everything in Syria as just Wilayat al-Sham. These issues of Al Naba are available via Jihadology.
Citations
[1] Islamic State, “From Hijrah to Khilafah,” Dabiq 1, July 4, 2014.
[2] “ISIS gang leader arrested in Deir ez-Zor,” ANF News, August 1, 2023.
[3] Haroro J. Ingram, Craig Whiteside, and Charlie Winter, The ISIS Reader Milestone Texts of the Islamic State Movement (London: Hurst Publishers, 2020).
[4] Shaykh ‘Uthman bin ‘Abd al-Rahman al-Tamimi, “Informing the People About the Birth of The Islamic State,” al-Furqan Foundation for Media Production, January 6, 2007.
[5] Ibid.
[6] Cole Bunzel, “From paper state to caliphate: The ideology of the Islamic State,” Brookings Institution, March 9, 2015.
[7] Shaykh Muharib al-Jaburi, “The First Cabinet Selection for the Islamic State of Iraq,” al-Furqan Foundation for Media Production, April 19, 2007; Islamic State of Iraq, “Second Ministry Formation for the Islamic State of Iraq,” al-Furqan Foundation for Media Production, September 21, 2009.
[8] Aaron Y. Zelin, “Experts weigh in (part 3): Is ISIS good at governing?” Brookings Institution, February 9, 2016.
[9] Aaron Y. Zelin, “46 Scenes From The Islamic State In Syria,” Buzzfeed, October 12, 2013.
[10] Aaron Y. Zelin, “Inside Baseball on Syrian Rebel Infighting,” War on the Rocks, February 7, 2014.
[11] Ibid.
[12] Aaron Zelin, “The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria Has a Consumer Protection Office,” Atlantic, June 13, 2014.
[13] Zelin, “The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria Has a Consumer Protection Office;” Zelin, “46 Scenes From The Islamic State In Syria.”
[14] Zelin, “The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria Has a Consumer Protection Office.”
[15] Devorah Margolin and Charlie Winter, “Women in the Islamic State: Victimization, Support, Collaboration, and Acquiescence,” The ISIS Files, George Washington University Program on Extremism, June 24, 2021.
[16] See “The ISIS Files” on George Washington University’s website for detailed analysis on the various dawawin. For background on the files, see Haroro J. Ingram and Devorah Margolin, “Inside the Islamic State in Mosul: A Snapshot of the Logic & Banality of Evil,” The ISIS Files, George Washington University Program on Extremism, June 24, 2020.
[17] Devorah Margolin, Mathilde Becker Aarseth, Hans Christensen, Tati Fontana, and Mark Maffett, “You Reap What You Sow: The Importance of Agriculture to the Islamic State’s Governance Strategy,” The ISIS Files, George Washington University Program on Extremism, June 24, 2021.
[18] Islamic State, “Epic Battles of Attrition – Wilayat al-Sham, al-Khayr,” Wilayat al-Sham Media Office, August 11, 2019; Islamic State, “Epic Battles of Attrition #4 – Wilayat al-Sham, al-Khayr,” Wilayat al-Sham Media Office, August 9, 2020; Islamic State, “Epic Battles of Attrition #3 – Wilayat al-Sham, al-Barakah,” Wilayat al-Sham Media Office, June 24, 2020.
[19] Islamic State, Al Naba 261, November 19, 2020.
[20] Islamic State, Al Naba 323, January 27, 2022; Charlie Winter and Abdullah Alrhmoun, “A Prison Attack and the Death of its Leader: Weighing Up the Islamic State’s Trajectory in Syria,” CTC Sentinel 15:2 (2022).
[21] Islamic State, “From the Land of al-Sham to the Lions of Africa – Wilayat al-Sham,” Wilayat al-Sham Media Office, June 23, 2022.
[22] See the full Al Naba archive via Jihadology.
[23] English-language summaries of these are available on the Islamic State Select Worldwide Activity Map through the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
[24] Aaron Y. Zelin, “The Islamic State’s Bayat Campaign,” Jihadology, November 3, 2019; Aaron Y. Zelin, “The Islamic State’s Second Bayat Campaign,” Jihadology, March 11, 2022; Islamic State, “Jihad of the Believers Continues – Wilayat al-Sham,” Wilayat al-Sham Media Office, March 13, 2022; Aaron Y. Zelin, “The Islamic State’s Third Bayat Campaign,” Jihadology, December 1, 2022; Islamic State, “And God Will Surely Support Those Who Support Him #5 – Wilayat al-Sham,” via Jihadology, December 19, 2022; Aaron Y. Zelin, “The Islamic State’s Fourth Bayat Campaign,” Jihadology, August 6, 2023.
[25] Abu Hudhayfah al-Ansari, “So Rejoice In Your Transaction Which You Have Contracted,” al-Furqan Foundation for Media Production, August 3, 2023.
[26] “Lead Inspector General for Operation Inherent Resolve I Quarterly Report to the United States Congress I January 1, 2023 – March 31, 2023,” Department of Defense Office of Inspector General, May 2, 2023.
[27] Gregory Waters and Charlie Winter, “Islamic State Under-Reporting in Central Syria: Misdirection, Misinformation, or Miscommunication?” Middle East Institute, September 2, 2021; Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi and Charlie Winter, “The Islamic State in Dera’a: History and Present Situation,” Current Trends in Islamist Ideology, April 24, 2023; Haid Haid, “Why ISIS doesn’t always publicize its attacks,” Asia Times, July 25, 2023.
[28] See the four leaked internal Islamic State documents here: “Letter from Badiya Desert Media Emir Abu al-Muthana al-Furati,” Syrian Jihadism, posted August 2023; “Letter From Abu Maher to Abu Harith: Complaint About the Interventions in Media Publications by the Military Emir in Homs,” Syrian Jihadism, October 6, 2020; “Saqr Abu Tayim the Media Emir’s Letter Addressing the Deputy Governor of Wilayat al-Sham,” Syrian Jihadism, November 2, 2020; and “Saqr Abu Tayim’s Second Letter,” Syrian Jihadism, posted August 2023.
[29] See “Saqr Abu Tayim’s Second Letter.”
[30] Discussed in all four aforementioned leaked internal Islamic State documents.
[31] Ibid.
[32] “Annual Sleeper Cell Report 2022,” Rojava Information Center, February 5, 2023.
[33] See archive of Rojava Information Center’s reports thus far in 2023 at its reports page on sleeper cells.
[34] Al-Ansari.
[35] Matthew Levitt and Aaron Y. Zelin, “Mission Unaccomplished: The Tweet That Upended Trump’s Counterterrorism and Iran Policies,” War on the Rocks, December 25, 2018; Paul D. Shinkman, “Trump Administration Appears to Reverse Syria Decision Following Backlash,” U.S. News and World Report, October 7, 2019.
[36] “‘Kulfa sultaniyah’ .. shahid ‘ala athar tandhim ‘al-dawlah’ fi suriya li-l-muzid,” Enab Baladi, September 15, 2022.
[37] “Dayr al-zur: sultah ‘qasid’ tatakul .. wa ‘da’ish’ yu’awad al-dhuhur,” al-Modon, June 5, 2019.
[38] Hussam al-‘Umar, “Shabih tandhim ‘al-dawlah al-islamiyah’ ma zal hadharan fi dayr al-zur li-l-muzid,” Enab Baladi, February 28, 2021.
[39] Haid Haid, “IS extortion operations in full swing in Syria’s northeast,” al-Majalla, June 28, 2023.
[40] “Da’ish .. al-zakat ‘qasaran’ ‘ala ahali dayr al-zur,” Deir EzZor 24, July 3, 2021.
[41] Sirwan Kajjo, “IS Relies on Extortion in Eastern Syria to Raise Funds,” Voice of America, October 11, 2022.
[42] Khaled al-Khateb, “Islamic State terrorizes business owners in northeast Syria,” Al-Monitor, October 12, 2022.
[43] “Da’ish .. al-zakat ‘qasaran’ ‘ala ahali dayr al-zur.”
[44] “Tandhim da’ish yufaridh atawat ‘ala ashab mahalat tujariyah fi dayr al-zur wa yuhadaduhum,” Deir EzZor 24, May 18, 2020.
[45] “‘Da’ish yudahim haqil al-subaihan al-nafti wa yuhadad al-amaliyin fihi bi-l-qatal,” Jesr Press, December 15, 2021.
[46] “Muqatil 10 min ‘amal haqil nafti bi-hujum sham sharqi suriya,” Asharq Al-Awsat, December 2, 2021.
[47] “Bi-hathan ‘an mustathamrin li-dafa’ al-atawah… tandhim da’ish yudahim ahad al-abar al-naftiyah sham dayr al-zur,” al-Sharqiya 24, October 29, 2021.
[48] “‘Da’ish yuhajim quwat al-tandhim al-suri dakhil haqil nafti bi-rif dayr al-zur,” Xeber 24, October 3, 2020.
[49] Mohammed Hardan, “Islamic State cells impose levy on oil investors in northeastern Syria,” Al-Monitor, December 29, 2021.
[50] Haid.
[51] “Atawat da’ishiyah ‘ala al-ahali fi rif dayr al-zur al-sharqi!” Deir EzZor 24, February 19, 2020; Mohammed Hardan, “Islamic State revives religious police in northeast Syria,” Al-Monitor, June 21, 2021; Kajjo.
[52] Margolin and Winter.
[53] “Tandhim da’ish yunasib hajizan fi rif dayr al-zur wa yufajr madrasah,” Deir EzZor 24, April 15, 2020.
[54] “Suspected IS fighters parade through Kurdish-controlled Syrian town,” BBC Monitoring, September 2, 2020.
[55] Hardan.
[56] Ibid.
[57] Ibid.
[58] Ibid.
[59] “ISIS threatens to punish women in Syria’s Deir ez-Zor,” North Press Agency, May 30, 2023.
[60] Wladimir van Wilgenburg, “ISIS threatens women in Deir ez-Zor: SOHR,” Kurdistan 24, August 7, 2023.
[61] Margolin and Winter.
[62] Sultan al-Kanj, “Islamic State ramps up activities in eastern Syria,” Al-Monitor, January 6, 2022.
[63] Hardan.
[64] A copy of it is available at the Syrian Jihadism website.
[65] Al-‘Umar.
[66] A copy of it is available at the Syrian Jihadism website.
[67] A copy of it is available at the Syrian Jihadism website.
[68] A copy of it is available at the Syrian Jihadism website.
[69] See the copy of it at the Syrian Jihadism website.
[70] See the copy of it at the Syrian Jihadism website.
[71] Louisa Loveluck, “How the Islamic State used bullying and bribes to rebuild in Syria,” Washington Post, February 24, 2022.
[72] Bebars Salah, “When the sun sets, SDF control over northeastern Syria’s highways wanes,” Syria Direct, June 14, 2022.
[73] “Al-Yawm al-thani ‘ala al-tawali .. tandhim da’ish yusaytar ‘ala madinat al-busayrah laylan,” Jesr Press, March 25, 2020.
[74] Salah.
[75] Mohammed Hardan, “Islamic State moves out of the shadows east of the Euphrates, swears in new recruits,” Syria Direct, July 18, 2022.
[76] Daniel Milton, Structure of a State: Captured Documents and the Islamic State’s Organizational Structure (West Point, NY: Combating Terrorism Center, 2021); Matthew Bamber, ““Without Us, There Would Be No Islamic State:” The Role of Civilian Employees in the Caliphate,” CTC Sentinel 14:9 (2021).
[77] Kajjo.
[78] “Three towns in Deir ez-Zor fall to ISIS rule,” North Press Agency, May 22, 2023.
[79] “Letter from the Emir of the Region Stretching from al-Shuhayl to Diban to the Deputy Wali of Wilayat al-Sham About Why He Had Not Been Claiming All of the Attacks Carried Out In the Region,” Syrian Jihadism, February 21, 2020.
[80] “Three towns in Deir ez-Zor fall to ISIS rule.”
[81] See Wassim Nasr, “#Syrie des partisans de l’#EI on participé à la manifestation d’al-Aazba #DeïrEzzore …,” X, July 8, 2023.
[82] “Statement On Dismissal Of Ahmed Al-Khubail Aka Abu Khawla,” SDF Media Council, August 30, 2023.
[83] Ibid.
[84] Hassan Hassan and Omar Abu Layla, “Assad’s Hidden Hand in the Uprising Against the Kurds in Eastern Syria,” New Lines Magazine, September 4, 2023.
[85] Gregory Waters, “Deir ez-Zor’s tribes reach a breaking point,” Middle East Institute, September 1, 2023.
[86] Islamic State, Al Naba 406, August 31, 2023.
[87] Mohammed Hassan, “Deir ez-Zor torn between Arab tribes’ struggle for independence and the SDF’s efforts to subdue them,” Middle East Institute, September 9, 2023.