Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on September 16-17/2023
Mikati, Bou Habib head to UN General Assembly
LBCI/September 16, 2023
Caretaker Minister of Foreign Affairs Abdallah Bou Habib, departed from Beirut this morning heading to New York with the official Lebanese delegation, led by Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati, to participate in the opening of the 78th session of the United Nations General Assembly and the activities held on its sidelines. During his stay in New York and on the sidelines of the session, Minister Bou Habib will have a series of meetings and contacts to discuss Lebanese and regional issues.

Diplomatic Developments and Regional Dynamics: Lebanon's Presidential Elections and Palestinian Ceasefire
LBCI/September 16, 2023
After the French presidential envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian packed his bags yesterday and left Beirut, news emerged about the Qatari envoy who will assume the mission of the Quintet Committee in completing the presidential elections. Information varied regarding whether the Qatari representative is currently in Lebanon or will be arriving soon.  However, what is certain is that there is a decision at the level of the Quintet Committee that will be issued from New York in the coming days, transferring the responsibility from Élysée to Doha, to pave the way for reaching Lebanese consensus on a presidential candidate. This article is originally published in, translated from Lebanese newspaper Nidaa al-Watan.

Berri confirms that he will call for dialogue
Naharnet/September 16, 2023
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri has announced that he is “clinging to” his presidential dialogue initiative. “It is the only one present on the table,” Berri told al-Manar television overnight. “French envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian endorsed and supported this initiative and it is the necessary gateway for addressing the presidential crisis,” Berri added. “I will call for dialogue according to norms and I hope all forces and blocs will enjoy national responsibility,” the Speaker went on to say. His remarks come a day after Le Drian wrapped up a four-day visit to Lebanon in which he reportedly proposed the election of a “third candidate” other than Suleiman Franjieh and Jihad Azour.

Global assistance: Lebanon seeks international support for forest fire disaster management
LBCI/September 16, 2023
Lebanon is facing a daunting challenge as it grapples with forest fires. While citizens and the government share significant responsibility, an effective disaster management plan is urgently needed. Last year, the Environment Ministry, in collaboration with relevant authorities, launched a national strategy to reduce the risks of forest fires in Lebanon.  As a result, the number of firefighting missions, according to Civil Defense, decreased from approximately 14,000 in 2021 to around 7,000 in 2022, accompanied by a reduction in the burnt areas. The strategy revolves around four fundamental pillars and has been implemented with funding from local sources and international organizations, including a recent $3.2 million grant from the Global Environment Facility through the World Bank. However, additional financial support is crucial to sustain and expand these efforts. Consequently, Lebanon is taking its plan to the United Nations General Assembly in New York, presenting a comprehensive outline of its steps to achieve Sustainable Development Goals. The Civil Defense, which plays a pivotal role in this plan, works tirelessly with limited resources, making financial support an urgent necessity. While raising awareness is essential at this stage, financial support is equally vital for implementing the strategy effectively. Can Lebanon convince the international community to provide the necessary assistance to address this pressing issue?

The latest on the Othman-Mawlawi rift
LBCI/September 16, 2023
The silent dispute between the General Director of the Internal Security Forces, Major General Imad Othman, and the underlying administrative disagreement appeared to have turned into a Sunni-Sunni dispute. This dispute escalated, especially after the news spread that the caretaker Minister of Interior, Bassam Mawlawi, had given permission to pursue Othman. So, what are the underlying issues? It's true that the disagreement between Mawlawi and Othman is not new, starting from the formations and the file of the Road Traffic Authority (RTA), among others. However, what sparked the dispute between the two men was the non-invitation of Major General Othman to the session dedicated to discussing the displacement file, which was held last week in the presence of the heads of security agencies. According to LBCI information, caretaker Prime Minister Mikati asked Mawlawi whether General Othman wanted to attend the session, and Mawlawi responded, "I am attending, and that's enough." What happened did not sit well with Othman, the Future Movement, and the team of former Prime Minister Saad Hariri, who considered it an attack on the institution of the Internal Security Forces and its political representation. Hariri, who is abroad, intensified his contacts with Mikati's team on Friday night and Saturday to find out the truth of what is happening. Furthermore, LBCI sources confirmed that the Minister of Interior did not actually give permission to pursue Othman; he only hinted at it and officially informed the concerned parties of this matter.  However, this clarification did not resolve the issue, as Major General Othman insisted that Mawlawi has been targeting the institution of the Internal Security Forces since he took over the Ministry of Interior, not just when he decided not to invite him to the session on the displaced. But what widened the disagreement gap was when Mawlawi decided to hold Mikati accountable for excluding Othman from the session regarding the displacement file. Mikati accepted this in an attempt to resolve the matter, as conveyed by Hariri and the General Director of the Internal Security Forces. Moreover, the dispute between Mawlawi and Othman has been temporarily resolved this time. Additionally, the damage has been kept within reasonable limits, but the history of their disputes suggests that this may not be the last. The worst part is that Lebanon is mired in crises on all fronts, and our officials are preoccupied with personal battles, prioritizing their interests over critical issues.

Cyprus: If Lebanon collapses, all of Europe will have refugee problem
Agence France Presse/September 16, 2023
European Union member Cyprus has warned against allowing Lebanon to “collapse,” noting that such a development would create a refugee crisis for Europe. In a letter to European Commission Vice President Margaritis Schinas, Cypriot Interior Minister Constantinos Ioannou said he has raised the urgent need for aid to Lebanon, where it is estimated that 2.5 million Syrians have taken refuge. “The information we have from the authorities in Lebanon is that there is an increase in Syrians moving to Lebanon. "Lebanon is a barrier. If Lebanon collapses, then all of Europe will have a problem," he said.
In recent months, Cyprus has seen a surge of asylum seekers, most of them Syrian, arriving by sea from Syria and Lebanon. The minister said the government has reduced arrivals of irregular migrants by 50 percent, thanks to external factors and specific measures taken. Ioannou said the processing of asylum applications had been speeded up and now took three months instead of nine. He said the government aims "to reduce the financial benefits for asylum seekers to make Cyprus an unattractive destination". The government argues that Cyprus is a "frontline" country on the Mediterranean migration route, with asylum-seekers making up six percent of the 915,000 population in government-controlled areas –- the highest proportion in the bloc. Although asylum applications are down, there has been a rise in migrants arriving by boat, with a 60 percent increase recorded in the first seven months of the year.

Lebanese emigrant becomes Latvia's health minister
Agence France Presse/September 16, 2023
Lebanese native Hosams Abu Meri has been appointed as Latvia's new health minister. The appointment makes Abu Meri the European country's first cabinet member from the Middle East. A gastroenterologist, Abu Meri has lived in Latvia since moving to the country for medical school. Abu Meri was born in Lebanon in August 1974. He became faction head of Latvia's Unity party on December 21, 2017.
 UNRWA Director visits Siblin Municipality, praises Jumblatt's role in supporting Palestinians in Lebanon
NNA
Director of UNRWA Affairs in Lebanon, Dr. Dorothy Klaus, visited today the Municipality of Siblin, where she was received by its mayor, Mohammed Ahmed Younis, thanking him for the municipality’s support to the vocational training center in Siblin, affiliated with UNRWA, and for following up on the conditions of the Palestinian refugees, “particularly during the recent Ain al-Hilweh security events." She also appreciated his efforts in accompanying Democratic Gathering member, MP Bilal Abdallah, during his inspection tour of Palestinian families a few days ago, “who were displaced from Ain al-Hilweh camp to the training center and UNRWA schools in Siblin, in wake of the security incidents inside the camp." Klaus also valued the role played by former MP Walid Jumblatt in helping and supporting the Palestinian people in Lebanon. She expressed her hope to reach a ceasefire in the camp and evacuate all educational centers affiliated with UNRWA.
Mayor Younis, in turn, welcomed Klaus and the accompanying delegation, praising the role that UNRWA plays “in helping our Palestinian brothers, in Siblin and all of Lebanon.”

Makary patronizes tribute to late George Wadih Skaf: Should we tell him that our new Lebanon is a camp among a group of camps, our state beheaded for...
NNA/September 16, 2023
Caretaker Minister of Information, Ziad Al-Makary, patronized a ceremony honoring the late minister, writer and journalist George Wadih Skaf at the Municipal Palace in Zahle, at the invitation of the Zahle and Taanayel Municipality, the Lebanese Press Syndicate, the Editors’ Syndicate, the Oriental College and the Zahle Judicial Council. In his word during the honoring cerrmony, Makary expressed his joy to be present in the city of Zahle, the hometown of the late Skaff who greatly contributed to his city and country at the humanitarian, political, and national levels.
Makary paid tribute to the lifetime achievements of the late Skaff, saying: "He was a great writer, an authentic journalist, a successful minister, and a mentor in journalism, politics, and loyalty...He was proud of his beautiful city of Zahle...He was seduced by the press, so he achieved an advanced position in the world of this profession, as a correspondent, analyst, writer, and publisher of Al-Jarida newspaper, its editor-in-chief, deputy head of the press syndicate, general director of the Lebanese Television, and minister of information during the mandate of the late President Sleiman Franjieh...Throughout the stages of his life, journalism remained his stable juncture, and he crowned his professional life with a collection of books and memoirs, in which he combined literature with politics, poetry, and memories.” Referring to the late's book “Our New Lebanon”, Makary wondered how to tell the late author what has become of our new Lebanon "as it is camped between a group of Syrian and Palestinian camps, with a strong international desire to change the identity of Lebanon, which we have always considered a message...and that the reckless weapons of Ain al-Hilweh are killing our Lebanon..."
He continued to wonder how to explain the current reality of our new Lebanon that has been without a head of state for the last eleven months, and that Syrian displacement has risen to the level of an invasion and now represents an existential threat to Lebanon?
Makary concluded by stressing that "it is our duty to raise our voice in rejection, and not to submit to internal and external destinies that insist on defeating us. Lebanon is ours, and we have the right to work together so that it remains ours!"

Al-Khauli praises Cyprus' request to review Syria's status, calls on Europeans to take Lebanon's interests into account
NNA/September 16, 2023
The General Coordinator of the National Campaign to Repatriate Displaced Syrians, Maroun Al-Khauli, praised "the position of the Cypriot authorities, member of the European Union, in requesting that the condition of Syria be reviewed by ending its status as an unsafe country to which refugees cannot be returned."He said: “We express our deep dissatisfaction with the European position towards the serious humanitarian crisis facing Syrian refugees in countries neighboring Syria. We renew our appreciation and gratitude for the courageous stance of the Cypriot authorities.”Al-Khauli continued, "We strongly deplore the Lebanese government's failure to follow this noble Cypriot position, and we call on the European Union to urgently re-evaluate the situation in Syria, as some areas there are considered safe...We must take into account Lebanon's interests and deal wisely with neighboring countries such as Turkey, Jordan and Iraq.”He considered that the current European position on Syrian refugees and displaced people in neighboring countries represents a "huge disappointment" and "conflicts with the values ​​of international relations and respect for the sovereignty and interests of states." "This position threatens all historical relations based on respect for the will of states and their peoples," he asserted, calling on the Europeans to "reconsider their position and stand by justice in regards to the standards for receiving displaced Syrians in Lebanon, which exceed half of its population, while in their countries it does not exceed 0.20%."

Salloum launches cooperation with JAD Association: Revivement of what the authorities killed through their inaction
NNA/September 16, 2023
Head of the Pharmacists Syndicate, Dr. Joe Salloum, visited today the “JAD” Association, launching coordination and cooperation between the Syndicate and JAD (Youth Against Drugs). Salloum considered that “this cooperation falls within his battle to protect the patients and the youth of Lebanon," adding that he is fighting by all available means "the smuggled medicine that includes narcotic substances and easy access to it in large quantities on the black market which encourages addiction."He said: "Captagon and neurological medications and similar smuggled drugs are two sides of the same coin: drugging and killing people." Salloum regretted the "inaction" and "turning a blind eye" on the part of state authorities in dealing with this dossier, with the exception of some of the security and judicial apparatuses with which he is coordinating.

Hamieh on paving Kfarshouba Road: 14 days were enough to have it ready for citizens' access
NNA/September 16, 2023
Caretaker Minister of Public Works and Transport, Ali Hamieh, announced today that paving works on the Kafarshouba road have been completed, with commendable efforts from donors and implementers alike. "This road, which extends from the outskirts of the town all the way to Birkat Ba’athail, far-reaching zero distance with the so-called withdrawal line on the border with occupied Palestine has been accomplished," he said, extending gratitude to the Jihad Al-Binaa Development Association for contributing half of the total amount required, and to the individual donors who contributed the other half. He noted that both the association and the donors dealt with this matter in a spirit of national responsibility that is highly cherished and appreciated. Hamieh considered that works on this road constitute the return of Lebanon's official state to a region previously under an occupation that has for long dreamt of keeping it away. He added that people are invited, as of today, to select this road to reach their farms, and to start an urban workshop on both sides of the road as much as possible. "Likewise, they are invited, alongside the state, to continue working to make it an attractive road for investment in its surrounding highlands and plateaus," Hamieh said.

Al-Kadiri replaces Al-Shaalan as head of Palestinian National Security in Sidon
NNA/September 16, 2023
The “Fatah” movement announced a change in the leadership of the Palestinian National Security in Sidon, where Muhammad Fahd Al-Kadiri was appointed instead of Abu Iyad Al-Shaalan as its new leader, as the latter served on a temporary basis succeeding Major General Abu Ashraf Al-Armushi, who was assassinated with four of his companions inside the Ain Al-Hilweh camp last July. Al-Shaalan remains in his organizational role, where he holds the position of commander of the militia forces and a member of the Fatah district committee.

Army unit raids displaced Syrians camps in Bekaa, arrests 43 persons
NNA/September 16, 2023
Lebanese Army Command - Orientation Directorate on Saturday issued the following statement: “An army unit, supported by a patrol from the Intelligence Directorate, raided during the week a number of Syrian refugee camps in the Bekaa region, arresting 43 Syrians for surreptitiously entering Lebanon and moving around without identification papers." The communique added that an investigation has begun with the detainees under the supervision of the concerned judiciary.

Geagea meets with "National Moderation" bloc delegation in Maarab
NNA/September 16, 2023
Head of the “Lebanese Forces” Party, Samir Geagea, met today in Maarab with a delegation from the “National Moderation” bloc, which included MPs: Walid Al-Baarini, Mohammad Sleiman, Sajih Attieh and former MP Hadi Hobeish, in the presence of members of the “Strong Republic” bloc, MPs: Ghassan Hasbani, Fadi Karam, Antoine Habshi and Elie Khoury. Following the meeting, Deputy Attieh said that the visit was to discuss reactivating the Klayaat Airport, adding that they received Geagea's "positive support and partnership in this important project, especially for the North and Akkar regions, which suffer from a lot of deprivation.”He added that the LF Chief and fellow MPs in the "Strong Republic" bloc also highlighted the necessity of activating all economic facilities in the country, especially in the northern region, be it the port or the special economic zone or the airport, particularly in light of the national, economic and developmental needs for this region. He considered that the Klayaat Airport would complement the work of Beirut Airport in various aspects. Attieh, who thanked Geagea and the Lebanese Forces deputies for adopting this project, pointed out that “all the blocs that we met had a lot of positivity about this project due to its importance...Starting from here, we will now enter the implementation phase and develop plans and a follow-up work mechanism at the administrative and logistical levels, and God willing, we will be able to operate the airport in the near future.”

Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on September 16-17/2023
Why Syrians in the southern city of Suweida are risking everything to protest
Arab News/September 16, 2023
LONDON: Protests in the Syrian city of Suweida have been going on more than a month now, with crowds usually gathering in the central Al-Karama Square, calling on the government in Damascus to implement economic and political reforms.
On Friday between 3,500 and 4,000 people rallied in the southern city — the largest in nearly a month of anti-regime demonstrations that have intensified as Syrians reel from the economic impact of war. The demonstrations in Suweida and nearby Deraa — where the 2011 uprising began — started after President Bashar Assad’s regime reduced fuel subsidies and raised gasoline prices by nearly 250 percent in August.
Hyperinflation is just one of the many problems Syrians are forced to deal with in their day-to-day lives. But it is no ordinary challenge given that an estimated 90 percent of Syrian citizens in government-held areas now live below the poverty line, and half the population faces food insecurity.
Aside from dire economic conditions and poor living standards, Syrians are also frustrated with their continuing lack of basic rights. “Undoubtedly, recent economic decisions have sparked the protests, yet society is on the brink of turmoil because the problem extends beyond mere living demands,” Ayham Azzam, head of the Suweida-based Juzour civil society group, told Arab News.
The protesters have wider demands beyond economic ones, which include “political, social and civil rights, as well as public freedoms and the release of detainees,” he added.
On Friday, the media outlet Suwayda24 published videos showing thousands of men and women chanting anti-regime slogans and waving Druze flags. Although the protests remain confined to southern cities, observers said they are reflective of political sentiments prevalent across the country. “While large-scale public demonstrations remain relatively scarce, there is a noticeable shift in the Syrian populace’s willingness to openly and boldly voice criticism of their government and leadership,” Camille Otrakji, a Syrian Canadian analyst, told Arab News. In August, the Syrian pound fell to a record low on the black market of 15,500 pounds to the dollar, according to state media. The official state bank rate is 10,800 pounds to the dollar. The government has doubled public-sector pay, increasing the minimum monthly salary to 185,940 pounds, the equivalent of about $22. However, this has done little to lessen the privations experienced by those living in government-held areas, who have had to tighten their belts. “By lifting subsidies, the government continues its withdrawal from supporting poor and needy households and proceeds further in transferring the economic burden onto civil society, expatriates and humanitarian organizations,” Mohammad Al-Asadi, a research economist for the Syrian Center for Policy Research who is based in Germany, told Arab News.
FASTFACTS
Protests erupted in the city of Suweida after the government slashed fuel subsidies.
Economic situation deemed worse now than at the height of civil war that began in 2011.
With about 70 percent of the Syrian population requiring aid, according to UN figures, local charities are struggling to meet the growing demand.
During a recent visit to Damascus, Geir Pedersen, the UN’s special envoy for Syria, warned that the situation in the country has “become worse than it was, economically, during the height of the conflict.”
Speaking in the Syrian capital following a meeting with Faisal Mekdad, the country’s foreign minister, he added: “We cannot accept that funding for Syria is going down while the humanitarian needs are increasing.
"When people are hungry they eat their leaders, they don't eat stones", screams one placard in Arabic during a demonstration against dire living conditions in the southern Syrian city of Sweida on August 23, 2023.
Huda Al-Ahmad, 50, who is the sole breadwinner in her household, lost her job months ago. She said her family have suffered for more than a year since the Damascus-based charity Al-Mabarrat stopped providing basic foodstuffs to her neighborhood. “Coffee used to be a daily necessity for every household in Damascus. It is now a luxury,” she told Arab News. “We never thought twice before buying it but now we cannot afford an ounce a month. It would cost 5,000 Syrian pounds to make three shots of coffee.”
Meanwhile, the daily commute to Damascus from Sitt Zaynab in Rif Dimashq, where Al-Ahmad lives, costs at least 4,000 Syrian pounds. “My daughter and I have been ill for nearly a week, unable even to afford paracetamol,” she said. “We have not bought any kind of fruit, meat or dessert for almost a year unless we give up rice and wheat for a couple of months.”Analysts believe policies that could boost economic activity, reduce tax evasion, combat corruption and cut military expenditure are infeasible as they would require political will, engagement with civil society in the decision-making process, and representative institutions. “These prerequisites are impossible to reach under the existing socioeconomic and political structures,” said Al-Asadi.
Instead, he added, the current policies will “deepen (the) poverty gap, as tens of thousands of poor Syrian households are expected to fall way below the overall poverty line into extreme poverty. Lifting subsidies is the easiest and fastest way to reduce the budget deficit.”Despite the rapidly declining living standards, nongovernmental organizations and the Damascus municipality recently collaborated on giving one of the capital’s public spaces a makeover.
Photos of the revamped Sabaa Bahrat (Seven Fountains) Square, in the vicinity of the central bank, recently went viral on social media, prompting critics to comment that it was distasteful to spend money on urban beautification when so many people in the country were experiencing power cuts and shortages of food and fuel.
“The Sabaa Bahrat roundabout will not provide bread,” Al-Hussain Al-Nayef, chairman of the Syrian National Media Alliance, said in a message posted on Facebook. “What do we gain from this cultural achievement when the impoverished citizens anticipate real change — one that addresses their concerns and lost happiness?” The renovation was fully funded by private donors, according to reports in January, which quoted Mohammed Eyad Al-Shamaa, chairman of the Damascus Governorate Council, as rejecting claims that the renovation work cost about 5 billion Syrian pounds.
Many local social media commentators said the funds should have been used to help feed the poor and install solar energy solutions to provide street lighting in Damascus, which, like much of the country, suffers regular power shortages.
“Syria’s GDP (gross domestic product) and its annual budget have dwindled significantly from their pre-Arab Spring levels,” said Otrakji, the Syrian Canadian analyst. “The Syrian government currently operates with severely limited financial resources, a situation that is far from sustainable in the long run.
“In this precarious financial state, Syria is poised to seek assistance, either from willing Arab states or by deepening its reliance on Iran.”
He lamented the fact that “beyond the stark divergence in expectations regarding the elusive political solution in Syria,” the country has become “a fertile ground for regional and international conflicts.”He added: “Regrettably, none of these conflicts show signs of nearing resolution, further entrenching Syria as a battleground for competing interests.”Azzam, from the civil society group Juzour, is convinced that the Syrian regime is incapable of reviving the moribund economy without some progress on the political front.
“The country is in ruins — economically, socially, culturally and intellectually,” he said. “This has produced a pressing need for a fresh social agreement that marks a significant phase in which Syria is for all citizens and an integral part of the global community. “Given the circumstances, all attempts to improve the economic situation will likely fail. And even if they do succeed, it would be a temporary, unsustainable success.”

Iran informs IAEA of decision to withdraw designation of several experienced inspectors
Reuters/September 16, 2023
VIENNA: The UN nuclear watchdog condemned on Saturday what it called Iran’s “disproportionate and unprecedented” move to bar about a third of the agency’s most experienced inspectors assigned to the country, hindering its ability to oversee Tehran’s nuclear activities. “I strongly condemn this disproportionate and unprecedented unilateral measure which affects the normal planning and conduct of Agency verification activities in Iran and openly contradicts the cooperation that should exist between the Agency and Iran,” International Atomic Energy Agency chief Rafael Grossi said in a statement.

Iran authorities say attempt to assassinate Mahsa Amini's father thwarted
LBCI/September 16, 2023
Iranian authorities thwarted an "assassination" attempt on the father of Mahsa Amini, according to official media reports on Saturday, coinciding with the first anniversary of his daughter's death, which ignited widespread protests in the Islamic Republic.
Iran's official news agency, IRNA, explained that a group of individuals attempted to target Amjad Amini as he was leaving his home to visit his daughter's grave.

Security forces thwart armed attack in Northwest Iran
AL MAYADEEN/September 16, 2023
Iran's security forces apprehended several individuals involved in a plot to target people during an unauthorized gathering in Saqqez, a town located in the western province of Kurdistan in Iran, Iranian media reported. The terrorist cell was composed of four members in possession of firearms, knives, and Iranian security personnel uniforms, media reports added. In August, the commander of Iran's Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC), Major General Hossein Salami, issued a warning regarding the adversary's scheme to incite unrest in Iran on the anniversary of the protests that erupted in September 2022 following the passing of Mahsa Amini. Iranian media agencies added that the uncovering of Iranian military uniforms indicates that the terrorists had conspired to open fire on civilians and then falsely implicate Iranian law enforcement in the act.
This comes on the first anniversary of the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini, whose death sparked Western-backed, funded riots and armed insurgencies in Iran, with incitement also coming from Western media outlets with the aim of undermining the nation.
ANTI-IRAN RIOTERS CLAIM AMINI DIED AFTER SHE WAS BEATEN UNDER POLICE CUSTODY FOR AN ALLEGED BREACH OF THE COUNTRY'S DRESS CODE FOR WOMEN. HOWEVER, IRAN'S LEGAL MEDICINE ORGANIZATION HAS CONFIRMED THAT HER CAUSE OF DEATH WAS FROM COMPLICATIONS SHE ENDURED AS A RESULT OF A CRANIOPHARYNGIOMA SURGERY AT THE AGE OF EIGHT.
IRAN'S INFLUENCE ON THE RISE
On Wednesday, Major General Hossein Salami stressed that enemies can no longer threaten Iran with a military option or economic sanctions since they have imposed full-fledged embargoes on the country, but they have only resulted in Tehran's incredible progress in various fields of technology and innovation. According to Salami, the adversaries' intentions to isolate Iran have also failed since everyone can witness the country's wide political and economic relations with nations ranging from the Far East to Africa and Latin America. "You can also see Iran’s influence in (organizations like) BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization," he added. The IRGC commander said enemies wanted to destabilize Iran, but this scheme was defeated owing to the Iranian people's alertness and the guidance of Iranian leader Sayyed Ali Khamenei.

Red Cross says ready to mediate between Russia, Ukraine in prisoners swap
LBCI/September 16, 2023
The Head of Regional Delegation of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) for Russian announced the Red Cross's readiness to mediate between Russia and Ukraine in a prisoner exchange if both parties request it. He stated, "I would like to point out that we regularly meet with Russia's Human Rights Commissioner, and discuss various issues, including the matter of prisoners and missing persons, as well as the protection of civilians. “The International Committee is not directly involved in the exchange of prisoners between Russia and Ukraine, but we are prepared to act as a neutral party and mediator if requested,” he added.

Remembering Mahsa Amini: A catalyst for change in Iran
LBCI/September 16, 2023
Do you remember Mahsa Amini?
She was the young Kurdish Iranian woman detained by Tehran's morality police in September last year, accused of violating the country's dress code rules.Three days later, Mahsa passed away in the hospital after falling into a coma. Still, her family insisted that her death resulted from the torture she endured during her detention. A year has passed since Mahsa Amini's death, and the impact of the incident has been profound within Iran. Furthermore, it sparked angry protests in several regions of Iran, distinguished from previous demonstrations in the history of the Islamic Republic as they were led by women, young people, and university students. Le Monde, the French newspaper, described it as a moment where "the current generation of Iranian youth does not submit to the oppression of the Tehran regime." However, what followed Mahsa's death deeply unsettled Iranian authorities and paved the way for breaking taboos in Iran. Moreover, women publicly removed their headscarves to defy the authorities, and others tore up images of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Even a supportive song titled "Baraye" (meaning "For" in Persian) emerged, symbolizing the things citizens lacked due to Western sanctions imposed on Iran. The protests, which eventually diminished after several months, also complicated Iran's diplomatic relations with the outside world. Additionally, the tense situation at that time exacerbated the complications faced by diplomatic efforts between Iran and major powers like Russia, China, France, the United Kingdom, Germany, and the United States to revive the nuclear agreement. The struggle of Iranian women for public freedoms, particularly regarding the hijab, has a long history. Mahsa Amini's case reawakened it.So, will it ignite once again?

Iran denounces the new Western sanctions
LBCI/September 16, 2023
Tehran condemned the new sanctions imposed by Western countries on officials and media outlets in Iran, coinciding with the first anniversary of the death of the young woman Mahsa Amini, considering them ‘hypocritical displays.’The United States, in coordination with the United Kingdom, Canada, and Australia, imposed sanctions on 25 Iranians and three media outlets on Friday, including "an Iranian company involved in online surveillance," linked to the suppression of protests , as reported by US authorities.

Sudan’s Burhan heads to Uganda as battles resume in Khartoum
LBC/September 16, 2023
Sudan’s de facto leader Abdel Fattah Burhan headed to Uganda on an official visit on Saturday, as stated in a statement by the Sudanese Sovereign Council. Meanwhile, fighting resumed in the vicinity of the General Command of the Army in central Khartoum after a two-week hiatus.The statement indicated that Burhan will hold discussions with Ugandan President "on bilateral relations and matters of mutual interest."

Washington welcomes Saudi Arabia's invitation to the Houthis to a dialogue in Riyadh: An important step towards peace
NNA/September 16, 2023
The US State Department welcomed Saudi Arabia’s invitation to a delegation from the Houthi group to hold talks in Riyadh, describing it as “an important step towards peace,” according to "Reuters". It said: “This important step towards peace expands the scope of a series of exchanges between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis," adding that "talks in Riyadh come in the wake of a visit by senior American officials to Saudi Arabia, Oman and the UAE last week to consult with our partners in the region and the Yemeni parties regarding a practical path towards peace."

Turkey Could Part Ways with EU if Necessary, Erdogan says
Reuters/September 16, 2023
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said on Saturday that Ankara could "part ways" with the European Union if necessary when asked about the contents of a European Parliament report on Turkey. The report, adopted earlier this week, said Turkey's accession process with the 27-member bloc cannot resume under current circumstances and called for the EU to explore "a parallel and realistic framework" for its ties with Ankara. Turkey has been an official candidate to join the EU for 24 years, but accession talks have stalled in recent years over the bloc's concerns about human rights violations and respect for the rule of law. "The EU is trying to break away from Turkey," Erdogan told reporters ahead of a trip to the United States. "We will make our evaluations against these developments and if necessary, we can part ways with the EU."Turkey's Foreign Ministry said earlier this week that the European Parliament report contained unfounded allegations and prejudices and took "a shallow and non-visionary" approach to the country's ties with the EU.

North Korea's Kim inspects Russian bombers and warship on visit to Russia's Far East
Associated Press/September 16, 2023
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un inspected Russia's nuclear-capable bombers, hypersonic missiles and an advanced warship from its Pacific fleet as he continued a trip in Russia's Far East that has sparked Western concerns about an arms alliance that could fuel Russian President Vladimir Putin's war on Ukraine. After arriving in the city of Artyom by train, Kim traveled to an airport just outside the port city of Vladivostok where Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and other senior military officials gave him an up-close look at Russia's strategic bombers and other warplanes.
All the Russian warplanes shown to Kim on Saturday were among the types that have seen active use in the war in Ukraine, including the Tu-160, Tu-95 and Tu-22 bombers that have regularly launched cruise missiles.
Shoigu, who had met Kim during a rare visit to North Korea in July, also showed Kim one of Russia's latest missiles, the hypersonic Kinzhal, carried by the MiG-31 fighter jet, that saw its first combat during the war in Ukraine, according to Russia's Defense Ministry.
Kim and Shoigu later traveled to Vladivostok, where they inspected the Admiral Shaposhnikov frigate of Russia's Pacific fleet. Russia's navy commander, Admiral Nikolai Yevmenov, briefed Kim on the ship's capabilities and weapons, which include long-range Kalibr cruise missiles that Russian warships have regularly fired at targets in Ukraine. Kim's visits to military and technology sites this week possibly hint at what he wants from Russia, perhaps in exchange for supplying munitions to refill Putin's declining reserves as his invasion of Ukraine becomes a drawn-out war of attrition.
Kim's trip to Russia, which included more than four hours of talks with Putin on Wednesday, comes amid momentum in military cooperation between the countries in which North Korea could potentially seek Russian technologies to advance Kim's nuclear, missile and other military programs in exchange for providing Russia with badly needed munitions. Videos released by Russia's Defense Ministry showed Shoigu greeting Kim at the airport along with honor guards lined up near a red carpet. Kim was seen peering at the Kinzhal missile and gesturing and asking questions about the warplanes' capabilities as he discussed technical details with Shoigu and other military officials through translators. Kim was also seen talking to Shoigu and Yevmenov about a purported nuclear attack submarine the North unveiled last week as they stepped out of the Shaposhnikov frigate.
The visit follows Kim's tour on Friday of a factory producing advanced Russian warplanes. Kim in recent months has emphasized the need to strengthen his navy to counter the advanced naval assets of the United States, which has been expanding its combined military exercises with South Korea to counter the North's growing threat. Analysts say Kim's focus on naval strength could be driven by ambitions to obtain sophisticated technologies for ballistic missile submarines and nuclear-propelled submarines as well as to initiate joint naval exercises between Russia and North Korea.
Oleg Kozhemyako, the governor of Russia's Primorsky region, earlier announced Kim's arrival in the city of Artyom, about 40 kilometers (25 miles) northeast of Vladivostok. Kozhemyako released a video showing Kim smiling as he got off his green-and-yellow train and was greeted by children presenting flowers. After meeting Putin at Russia's main spaceport, a location that pointed to Kim's desire for Russian assistance in his efforts to acquire space-based reconnaissance assets and missile technologies, North Korea's leader reappeared Friday in the far eastern city of Komsomolsk-on-Amur for a visit to a plant producing Russia's Su-57 fighter jets.
Experts have said potential military cooperation between the countries could include efforts to modernize North Korea's outdated air force, which relies on warplanes sent from the Soviet Union in the 1980s. Pyongyang's official Korean Central News Agency said Saturday that during his visit to the aircraft plant in Komsomolsk-on-Amur, Kim expressed "sincere regard" for what he described as Russia's rapidly advancing aviation technologies, which he said were "outpacing the outside potential threats."North Korean state media have been reporting on Kim's activities in Russia a day late while crafting the details to meet government propaganda purposes. Russia's Cabinet on Friday released a video showing Kim on an elevated platform looking at the cockpit of an Su-57 while listening to its pilot. Kim also beamed and clapped his hands when an Su-35 fighter jet landed after a demonstration flight.
During a luncheon hosted by Russian officials, Kim's top military officer, army Marshal Ri Pyong Chol, said his leader's visit to the facility "added another glorious page" to the countries' relations, KCNA said. Kim's delegation also includes the top commanders of North Korea's air force and navy. Kim's trip to Russia, his first since April 2019 when he met Putin in Vladivostok, came days after he attended a ceremony at a North Korean military shipyard where the country unveiled the alleged nuclear attack submarine. State media claimed it is capable of launching tactical nuclear weapons from underwater. But South Korea's military expressed doubt about the operational capabilities of the sub, which was the result of reshaping an existing submarine to install missile launch tubes. Kim has also announced goals to acquire nuclear-propelled submarines, which can quietly travel long distances and approach enemy shores to deliver strikes, a key asset in his efforts to build a viable nuclear arsenal that could threaten the United States. Analysts say such capacities would be unfeasible for the North without external assistance.
Putin on Friday reiterated that Russia would abide by U.N. sanctions, some of which ban North Korea from exporting or importing any weapons. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov separately said that no agreements on bilateral military cooperation were signed after the Putin-Kim meeting Wednesday. Experts say North Korea and Russia aren't likely to publicize any deals on weapons to avoid stronger international criticism. Kim, whose visit to Russia is his first foreign trip since the COVID-19 pandemic, has been eager to boost the visibility of his partnerships with Moscow and Beijing as he attempts to break out of international isolation and insert Pyongyang in a united front against Washington. Some South Korean experts say that Kim could also pursue a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. In another sign of the North's post-pandemic opening, KCNA said Saturday that a team of North Korean athletes departed from Pyongyang to participate in the Asian Games starting next week in Hangzhou, China. South Korea's government says around 190 North Korean athletes are registered for the event. Since last year, the U.S. has accused North Korea of providing ammunition, artillery shells and rockets to Russia, many of them likely copies of Soviet-era munitions. South Korean officials said North Korean weapons provided to Russia have already been used in Ukraine. Some analysts question how much Russia would be willing to share its sensitive weapons technology in exchange for North Korean conventional arms. But others say that is now a possibility to consider as Russia becomes desperate to refill its drained reserves. After a meeting in Seoul discussing the allies' nuclear deterrence strategies, U.S. and South Korean officials on Friday stepped up their condemnation of the recent moves by Russia and North Korea. Sasha Baker, the U.S. acting undersecretary of defense for policy, said Washington will continue to "try to identify and expose and counter Russian attempts to acquire military equipment" from North Korea or elsewhere.

Hope of finding survivors in Libya's floods has diminished
NNA/September 16, 2023
Hopes of finding survivors in Derna in eastern Libya have diminished, six days after violent floods swept the city and killed thousands of people, according to "Agence France-Presse". A strong storm struck eastern Libya on Sunday, and heavy rains in huge quantities caused the collapse of two dams in Derna, causing water to flow strongly into a river that is usually dry. Parts of the city, along with its buildings and infrastructure, were swept away with it. The water flowed several meters high, destroying the bridges linking the east and west of the city.

Libya probes collapse of 2 dams after flooding devastates city, kills over 11,000
Associated Press/September 16, 2023
Libya's top prosecutor said he has opened an investigation into the collapse of two dams that caused a devastating flood in a coastal city as rescue teams searched for bodies, nearly a week after the deluge killed more than 11,000 people. Heavy rains caused by Mediterranean storm Daniel caused deadly flooding across eastern Libya last weekend. The floods overwhelmed two dams, sending a wall of water several meters (yards) high through the center of Derna, destroying entire neighborhoods and sweeping people out to sea. More than 10,000 are missing, according to the Libyan Red Crescent. Six days on, searchers are still digging through mud and hollowed-out buildings, looking for bodies and possible survivors. Authorities and aid groups have voiced concern about the spread of waterborne diseases and shifting of explosive ordnance from Libya's recent conflicts.
General Prosecutor al-Sediq al-Sour said prosecutors would investigate the collapse of the two dams, which were built in the 1970s, as well as the allocation of maintenance funds. He said prosecutors would investigate local authorities in the city, as well as previous governments. "I reassure citizens that whoever made mistakes or negligence, prosecutors will certainly take firm measures, file a criminal case against him and send him to trial," he told a news conference in Derna late Friday. It's unclear how such an investigation can be carried out in the North African country, which plunged into chaos after a NATO-backed uprising toppled longtime dictator Moammar Gadhafi in 2011. For most of the past decade, Libya has been split between rival administrations — one in the east, the other in the west — each backed by powerful militias and international patrons. One result has been the neglect of crucial infrastructure.
Local officials in the city had warned the public about the coming storm and last Saturday ordered residents to evacuate coastal areas in Derna, fearing a surge from the sea. But there was no warning about the dams, which collapsed early Monday as most residents were asleep in their homes. A report by a state-run audit agency in 2021 said the two dams had not been maintained despite the allocation of more than $2 million for that purpose in 2012 and 2013. A Turkish firm was contracted in 2007 to carry out maintainance on the two dams and build another dam in between. The firm, Arsel Construction Company Limited, said on its website that it completed its work in November 2012. It did not respond to an email seeking further comment.
Local and international rescue teams were meanwhile working around the clock, searching for bodies and potential survivors in the city of 90,000 people. Al-Sour called on residents who have missing relatives to report to a forensic committee that works on documenting and identifying retrieved bodies. "We ask citizens to cooperate and quickly proceed to the committee's headquarters so that we can finish the work as quickly as possible," he said. Libyan authorities have restricted access to the flooded city to make it easier for searchers to dig through the mud and hollowed-out buildings for the more than 10,000 people still missing. Many bodies were believed to have been buried under rubble or swept out into the Mediterranean Sea, they said. The storm hit other areas in eastern Libya, including the towns of Bayda, Susa, Marj and Shahatt. Tens of thousands of people have been displaced in the region and took shelter in schools and other government buildings. Dozens of foreigners were among those killed, including people who had fled war and unrest elsewhere in the region. Others had come to Libya to work or were traveling through in hopes of migrating to Europe. At least 74 men from one village in Egypt perished in the flood, as well as dozens of people who had traveled to Libya from war-torn Syria.

Latest English LCCC  analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on September 16-17/2023
Biden Administration’s Dangerous, Failed, Disastrous Iran Policy
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Gatestone Institute./September 16, 2023
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/122357/122357/
[T]he US, instead of stopping Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, is bribing the mullahs not to go to 90% enrichment [the level needed for a nuclear bomb], at least on the Biden administration’s watch, especially ahead of the November 2024 US presidential election.
Meanwhile, Iran laughably keeps claiming that it is not even seeking a nuclear bomb.
After that, the Biden administration looked the other way during the Islamic Republic’s malign actions in the region, such as smuggling weapons, and shipping oil to Syria and Hezbollah in direct violation of US sanctions, at the same time that Iran was busy increasing its influence in America’s backyard.
Thanks to the Biden administration, Iran’s oil exports have also started booming and have now surged more than two million barrels a day, the most since 2018 , and they are selling it at levels close to the pre-sanctions era, to countries such as China, which desperately needs it – while the Biden administration suspended new oil and gas leases on US public lands and waters.
The Biden administration also looked away when the Iranian regime killed more than 300 people, including 40 children, in the recent protests.
As if these appeasements were not enough, the Biden Administration recently reached a deal with the Iranian regime behind closed doors on August 10, in which the United States agreed to pay $6 billion dollars and release a handful of Iranian nationals who are serving prison sentences in the US, in exchange for the release of five Iranian-Americans imprisoned in Iran — more than a billion dollars per person — with still more payments apparently on the way.
The United States, instead of stopping Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, is bribing the mullahs not to go to 90% uranium enrichment [the level needed for a nuclear bomb], at least on the Biden administration’s watch, especially ahead of the November 2024 US presidential election.
There seems to be nothing that the Biden administration will not do to appease the ruling mullahs of Iran and their regime, called only a few years ago by the US Department of State the “top state sponsor of terrorism.” Since the Biden administration assumed office, the more it has been appeasing the Iranian regime financially and politically, the more the mullahs, instead of taking reciprocal steps, have become empowered and emboldened. Iran is now holding uranium enrichment at 60% purity, around 10 days away from raising it to the nuclear threshold level of 90%.
In short, the US, instead of stopping Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, is bribing the mullahs not to go to 90% enrichment, at least on the Biden administration’s watch, especially ahead of the November 2024 US presidential election.
Meanwhile, Iran laughably keeps claiming that it is not even seeking a nuclear bomb.
Here are some of the major and dangerous appeasements that the Biden administration has so far offered to this anti-American regime. The first concession came a few days after the administration assumed office, toward Iran’s proxy militia group in Yemen, the Houthis.
Even as the evidence — including a 2020 United Nations report – had shown that Iran was delivering sophisticated weapons to the Houthis in Yemen, the Biden administration suspended some of the anti-terrorism sanctions on the Houthis that the Trump administration had set in place.
On February 12, 2021, the Biden administration revoked the designation of Yemen’s Houthis as a terrorist group.
Almost immediately after, on March 7, 2021, the Iran-backed Houthis “reciprocated” by attacking Saudi Arabia’s oil fields and a few months later, the United Arab Emirates.
A few months after that, in June 2021, the Biden administration lifted sanctions on three former Iranian officials and several energy companies.
Then, in a blow to the Iranian people and all advocates of democracy and human rights — days after the Iranian regime hand-picked a reported mass murderer, Ebrahim Raisi, to be its next president — the Biden administration announced that it was also considering lifting sanctions against Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
After that, the Biden administration looked the other way during the Islamic Republic’s malign actions in the region, such as smuggling weapons, and shipping oil to Syria and Hezbollah in direct violation of US sanctions, at the same time that Iran was busy increasing its influence in America’s backyard.
In January, Iran sent two warships to Brazil, on the way to station them at the Panama Canal. (Eventually, in May, the ships just sailed through the canal.)
In addition, in June, Raisi made a special trip to Venezuela to establish “strategic ties” and remind the world that Iran and Venezuela have “common enemies.” Moreover, the Iranian regime’s terror cells have been growing in Latin America as Iran’s terror proxy Hezbollah and Al Mustafa International University have both played a key role in expanding the mullahs’ presence and ideology in the region. The regime has also been expanding the number Iranian-trained imams and militants in Latin America, and increasing recruitment of radicals.
The Biden administration also looked away when the Iranian regime killed more than 300 people, including 40 children, in the recent protests.
Seemingly to further appease the ruling clerics of Iran, the Biden administration began issuing waivers, making the sanctions an ineffective joke. Last year, the Biden administration restored a waiver that had been rescinded by the Trump Administration. The new waiver permitted companies from Europe, Russia and China to advance their work on Iran’s nuclear sites. This was most likely done in the hope of reviving the “nuclear deal” to enable Iran to have as many nuclear weapons as it likes, a move Iran is apparently doing anyway. The restored waiver also further facilitates the flow of funds to the Iranian regime, lifts sanctions, and enhances global legitimacy of the expansionist, despotic regime.
The Biden administration further attempted, on March 16, to deny that it had issued a waiver to Iraq, to pay $500 million to Iran. According to a report by the Free Beacon, the waiver was issued “a day after Biden administration officials denied Iran’s claims that the United States had paved the way for Tehran to receive the $500 million.” The regime will most likely use the funds to further arm Russia in its invasion of Ukraine, to brutalize its own citizens, to undermine US national security interests, to fund its terrorist and militia groups across the Middle East and to expand even more deeply into Latin America.
On June 10, 2023 the Biden Administration also gave yet another sanction waiver to Iran’s satrapy, Iraq, to make a payment of $2.76 billion to the Iranian regime.
Thanks to the Biden administration, Iran’s oil exports have also started booming and have now surged more than two million barrels a day, the most since 2018 , and they are selling it at levels close to the pre-sanctions era, to countries such as China, which desperately needs it – while the Biden administration suspended new oil and gas leases on US public lands and waters.
Iran has furthermore been shipping vast amounts of oil to Venezuela without either country fearing repercussions from the Biden administration.
As if these appeasements were not enough, the Biden Administration recently reached a deal with the Iranian regime behind closed doors on August 10, in which the United States agreed to pay $6 billion dollars and release a handful of Iranian nationals who are serving prison sentences in the US, in exchange for the release of five Iranian-Americans imprisoned in Iran — more than a billion dollars per person — with still more payments apparently on the way.
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a business strategist and advisor, Harvard-educated scholar, political scientist, board member of Harvard International Review, and president of the International American Council on the Middle East. He has authored several books on Islam and US Foreign Policy. He can be reached at Dr.Rafizadeh@Post.Harvard.Edu
© 2023 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/19971/biden-failed-iran-policy

Iran’s Nuclear Diplomacy: Feint and Advance
Michael Singh//The Washington Institute/September 16/2023
What Washington considers de-escalation, Tehran sees as an opportunity to consolidate its nuclear gains, avoid accountability, and position itself to cross the nuclear weapons threshold at a time of its choosing.
Since December 2020, Iran has significantly expanded its nuclear activities and decreased its cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), bringing it closer than ever to a nuclear weapons capability even as the United States and its partners have decreasing visibility into the program. Since the Biden administration’s efforts to revive the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) broke down in fall 2022, Washington and the IAEA have pursued diplomatic initiatives to stave off an international crisis and halt further advances in Iran’s program.
Unfortunately, these efforts have accomplished little and arguably detracted from one another, cementing both Iran’s nuclear achievements and the linkage between its commitments under the JCPOA and the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT)—an outcome long sought by Tehran and long resisted by Washington and its partners. In turn, the Iranian regime has received another boost to its confidence, which was already high due to perceived diplomatic and military successes in the region as well as surging oil exports. Reversing these trends will require a strenuous U.S. and European effort to deter Iran amid narrowing and unpalatable policy options.
Decreasing Breakout Time and Transparency
Over the past two years, Iran’s nuclear advances have become more substantial and worrisome—indeed, all of the states that made similar strides in the past went on to develop nuclear weapons. The regime’s advances include:
Enriching uranium to 60 percent, and briefly as high as 84 percent, a hair’s breadth from what is generally considered weapons-grade (for more on these terms, see this Washington Institute infographic or the associated Iran Nuclear Glossary).
Stockpiling several weapons’ worth of high-enriched uranium (HEU)
Expanding the number, sophistication, and locations of its installed centrifuges.
Decreasing its “breakout time”—the period required to produce a single bomb’s worth of weapons-grade uranium—to just twelve days.
Although converting HEU into an actual weapon would take additional time, this fact should not be particularly reassuring to Western officials. For one thing, Iran is already known to possess sufficient knowledge to weaponize. Revelations from the archive of nuclear documents that Israel has spirited from Iran suggest that its weaponization efforts advanced further and were more organized than described in the IAEA’s 2015 report on the program’s “possible military dimensions” (PMD). Moreover, many of the current restrictions on Iran’s missile program are set to sunset next month.
Second, the time required for weaponization may be shorter than expected—some analysts suggest Iran may need two years, but Joint Chiefs chairman Gen. Mark Milley recently pegged the estimate at just a few months. Whatever the actual time required, U.S. and Israeli leaders would have to rely on potentially low-confidence intelligence assessments regarding Iran’s progress, greatly complicating their decisions about if, when, and how to act.
Third, preventing a weaponization effort would depend on keeping track of Iran’s HEU, which would be difficult given the numerous steps the regime has taken to decrease the transparency of its nuclear activities. For example, the IAEA has had little insight into Iran’s centrifuge manufacturing and assembly for years now, with perhaps thousands of centrifuges unaccounted for. In addition, Iran’s production of 84 percent uranium may not have been detected quickly enough for the United States or others to take action if they had wished to, and it is unclear if future incidents would be detected more quickly. Tehran also continues to stonewall the IAEA’s efforts to investigate three undeclared nuclear sites named in Israel’s documents archive: Turquzabad, Varamin, and Marivan.
Taken together, these developments underscore the fear that Iran could conduct a breakout at an undeclared site using centrifuges diverted from existing facilities. International observers are already worried about a new facility being constructed outside Natanz, since it is buried more deeply than other facilities and will therefore be better protected from attack. So far, Iran has not notified the IAEA of the facility’s purpose. If pressed, the regime would likely claim it is not required to give such notice after suspending (illegitimately, in the IAEA’s view) its implementation of “Modified Code 3.1”—a provision that requires Iran to notify the agency about the construction of any new nuclear facility as soon as it is planned or authorized rather than waiting for the introduction of nuclear materials. Tehran also refuses to implement the Additional Protocol, under which IAEA inspectors could request access to undeclared or suspect nuclear facilities.
U.S.-IAEA Crisis Management: Unintended Effects?
This March, IAEA director-general Rafael Grossi traveled to Iran in an effort to stave off crisis and improve the agency’s monitoring efforts. Yet Tehran no doubt saw the trip as an opportunity to delay or deter formal condemnation of its activities by the IAEA Board of Governors.
During the visit, Grossi and the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) issued a joint statement in which Tehran agreed to help resolve the IAEA’s investigation into the Turquzabad, Varamin, and Marivan sites, along with other steps aimed at enhancing the agency’s monitoring and verification activities (with the latter to be specified in subsequent technical discussions). In May, the IAEA reported modest progress in implementing the joint statement: Iran had permitted the installation of “enrichment monitoring devices” at Fordow and Natanz and the reinstallation of cameras at the Isfahan centrifuge workshops. Yet the Fordow and Natanz devices were not yet operational, and Iran had not agreed to give the IAEA access to the Isfahan camera footage. No further progress has been made on these issues since May.
Meanwhile, the Biden administration has reportedly engaged in discussions with Iran, both directly with Iran’s ambassador to the UN and indirectly through partners such as Qatar and Oman. These talks have apparently focused on reaching limited deals after the broader 2021-22 effort to revive the JCPOA collapsed. In the months following that failure, Iran warned that placing its related diplomatic demands on the back burner would be met with further escalation.
Reports indicate that the new talks produced two understandings. First, Iran agreed to release five illegally detained American citizens in exchange for several concessions: the release of five Iranian nationals facing or convicted of various federal charges in the United States, the unfreezing of $6 billion in Iranian assets held in South Korea, and the release of $11 billion in assets frozen in Iraq (though it is unclear if the Iraqi funds were explicitly part of the deal).
Second, the two sides reportedly reached an unwritten agreement to trade de-escalatory steps. The details have not been confirmed, but these steps apparently included the following: Iran would down-blend some of its 60 percent uranium, slow its accumulation of HEU, and refrain from installing new advanced centrifuges at Fordow; in return, the United States would refrain from enforcing sanctions on Iran’s oil sales. Last month, these sales matched their pre-sanctions high of approximately 2.2 million barrels per day, thanks in large part to a surge in Chinese purchases through third countries.
If these reports are correct, the de-escalatory steps do little to reduce the Iranian nuclear threat. The regime’s breakout time is already dangerously narrow and will not be substantially widened by slowing Iran’s accumulation of 60 percent uranium or modestly reducing its existing stockpile. Moreover, if Tehran chooses to break out and produce nuclear weapons, it would likely do so at an undeclared site (e.g., the new underground facility being constructed at Natanz), not a declared site. In that case, its reported pledge not to install more centrifuges at declared facilities would be worse than meaningless, since the additional machines may be diverted to the undeclared facility.
The impression that Washington is conducting secret diplomacy could also undermine other potential efforts to hold Iran accountable for its noncompliance with the JCPOA and NPT. For example, if the EU-3 (Britain, France, and Germany) wished to rally other IAEA member states to press for greater Iranian cooperation, the lack of clarity on Washington’s parallel efforts would likely make them reluctant to do so (or, at least, give them an excuse to avoid taking action).
Indeed, the U.S. and IAEA crisis-management efforts may inadvertently feed Tehran’s well-established “feint and advance” strategy, by which it agrees to limited deals timed to stave off pressure from the IAEA Board of Governors or other bodies. These deals have the added effect of shifting the diplomatic goalposts and cementing the advances Iran has made in contravention of its previous commitments. Tehran then proceeds to ignore even those diluted commitments and move the goalposts even further.
This strategy reflects an Iranian regime that is not only deeply experienced at manipulating Western nuclear diplomacy, but also riding atop a wave of confidence at home and abroad. Iran’s economy grew by 3.8 percent in 2022, and this rate is not projected to shrink much in 2023 given the aforementioned surge in Chinese oil purchases and other factors. In the Gulf, Tehran recently concluded normalization deals with the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia (the latter with Chinese facilitation) and sent President Ebrahim Raisi on a successful tour of the neighborhood. In Syria, Iranian ally Bashar al-Assad is being welcomed back to the Arab fold, while Iranian and Russian forces are reportedly conspiring to increase pressure on U.S. troops deployed there. Tehran has also become a key military supplier to Moscow amid the Ukraine war, shifting the power dynamic in their relationship for the first time in modern history. In Lebanon, Iranian proxy Hezbollah has ramped up its anti-Israel activities to the brink of another potential war. And on the nuclear front, the United States and EU-3 were visibly deterred from exercising the JCPOA’s “snapback” provision after Tehran threatened to enrich uranium to 90 percent, a level commonly considered weapons-grade.
Next Steps
The Biden administration has suggested that Iran’s de-escalatory steps could pave the way for broader nuclear talks. Yet Tehran has already demonstrated its lack of interest in renewing the JCPOA and would likely insist that any new talks take its nuclear advances as the baseline, jettisoning the JCPOA’s limits. This conclusion is based in part on Tehran’s perception that the administration has essentially accepted these advances, however reluctantly. In that case, Iranian negotiators would focus on trading transparency measures and safeguards compliance for sanctions relief and other concessions—an approach that the United States and EU-3 have long resisted.
If the administration hopes to change this trajectory, it must reverse the current deterrence equation. Washington and its partners are worried that any bold moves could push Iran to further escalate its nuclear activities, but there are two major problems with this reasoning. First, the current situation is already dangerously unstable—given Iran’s short breakout time, something as simple as a faulty intelligence report or diplomatic dispute (e.g. over next month’s sunset dates for various JCPOA restrictions) could spark the exact sort of crisis they are trying to avoid. Second, emphasizing de-escalation may embolden Tehran to believe it can move toward producing nuclear weapons without consequence, forgetting that there is a potentially fatal difference between being on that threshold and actually crossing it—namely, the risk of a devastating conflict with far more powerful adversaries. Both the United States and Iran may worry about escalation, but Iran should worry far more.
Washington’s recent efforts to bolster its military posture in the Gulf and send Marines for potential deployment aboard commercial vessels constitute a good first step toward increasing military pressure on Iran. Similarly forceful measures should be taken in the economic and diplomatic realms.
The most useful economic step would be to crack down on Iranian oil sales and the banking networks that facilitate them. This would cast doubt on Tehran’s prospects of maintaining its current growth rate.
On the diplomatic front, the United States should ask the EU-3 to use upcoming JCPOA sunset deadlines as leverage. For example, they could delay the lifting of certain sanctions in October as stipulated in the JCPOA, then warn Tehran that this is a prelude to further measures (e.g., requesting a comprehensive IAEA assessment of Iranian weaponization activities; updating the agency’s 2015 PMD report based on evidence from Israel’s nuclear archive). They might even threaten to exercise snapback—an option they have long resisted but will likely consider more seriously as the snapback provision’s 2025 expiration grows closer.
It is important to recognize that U.S. and Iranian objectives for the current round of diplomacy are not the same: Washington genuinely seeks de-escalation, but Iran is mainly interested in staving off a crisis while it simultaneously moves the goalposts, cements its nuclear gains, hardens its nuclear infrastructure against attack, and creates the conditions necessary to produce nuclear weapons at a time of its choosing. There are currently few obstacles to Tehran continuing down its path of nuclear advancement and obfuscation; if this does not change, Washington should not expect Iran’s course to change either.
*Michael Singh is the managing director and Lane-Swig Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute.

An Inside Look at Rabin’s Oslo Expectations
David Makovsky//The Washington Institute/September 16/2023
A previously classified cabinet transcript reveals a mix of shrewd judgments, prophetic concerns, and miscalculations by the late prime minister.
This PolicyWatch is based on the author’s remarks at the September 11 Washington Institute Policy Forum “Oslo at 30: Looking Back and Ahead.” To watch video of the forum or read insights from other speakers, see the event page.
Recently, Israel declassified the transcript of the landmark 1993 cabinet meeting at which ministers debated the first Oslo Accord, the product of secret negotiations with its avowed enemy, the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO). Held August 30 of that year, days before the agreement was signed, the meeting lasted five-and-a-half hours and ended with officials approving the proposed terms by a 16-0 vote (with two abstentions). The previously unseen debate adds to the public understanding of Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin’s thinking at this historic juncture and underscores the depth of his subsequent evolution.
How Oslo Fit with Rabin’s Strategic Priorities
Rabin saw himself as a strategic thinker, and nothing excited him more than contemplating the direction of the Middle East and its wider implications for Israel. In his view, the end of the Cold War and U.S. military intervention in the Persian Gulf represented a strategic windfall of historic proportions. He generally saw the Palestinian issue as second-tier in terms of national security, albeit still critical to Israel’s future. He was more drawn to a potential peace deal with Syria given its potent armed forces and history of war with Israel. Yet the Syria track did not advance as he hoped.
More broadly, Rabin felt a need to limit Israel’s conflicts with its neighbors before Iran went nuclear—an issue he focused on before many others did. As such, he linked Israel’s inner circle of potential regional conflict with the outer circle, recognizing that failure to reach understandings with actors in its immediate vicinity could embolden Tehran to make trouble on the periphery.
Regional implications were not the only reason why Rabin eventually prioritized the Palestinian issue, however; he also realized that failure to solve this conflict would endanger Israel as a Jewish and democratic state. Moreover, he saw the rise of Hamas in dire terms, regarding the group as fanatical, opposed to any compromise, and poised to gain ground against the main Palestinian national movement (due in part to the latter’s support for Saddam Hussein during the 1990-91 Gulf War). As he noted at the 1993 meeting, “The rise of Hamas in particular and radical Islam in general in the Arab world is a problem. I think we are seeing this rise among the Palestinians as well. I believe that, in most of the elections in the territories today, Hamas is rising.” (The full Hebrew transcript is available on the Israel State Archives website.)
Rabin was associated with the school of territorial compromise advocated by his mentor and colleague Yigal Allon after the 1967 war, when the hoped-for interlocutor was Jordan. Yet Amman took itself out of the picture in 1988 because of the ongoing first Palestinian intifada. Rabin then hoped to cut a deal with local Palestinian factions in the West Bank, though he candidly admitted they would not move without the entity that was spearheading the national movement, the PLO. Ultimately, he came to believe that the only way to counter Hamas was by reaching a deal with the PLO.
Rabin Saw Gaza Pullout as Reversible
Another key takeaway from the 1993 transcript is that Rabin—virtually alone among the cabinet—viewed Oslo as reversible at first and repeatedly stated that “Gaza is a test case.” In his view, if the Palestinians did not handle the terrorist element, Israel would have to tell them, “Gentlemen, then we are taking care of security.” Understanding this point is important because it highlights each leadership’s sharply different views on what Oslo’s ultimate goal should be: to define a state-in-waiting (as favored by the Palestinians), or to progressively devolve powers based on proven Palestinian security performance (as favored by Israel).
In contrast to Rabin, several cabinet ministers saw Oslo as a vindication of their view that Israel needed to fully extricate itself from the West Bank. Yet the prime minister agreed with them on another crucial point: that the deal would be considered a failure if terrorism continued and Israelis felt unsafe. In that sense, they knew they were betting their government on Oslo’s success; as Rabin bluntly put it, this was a “to be or not to be” moment for his administration. They correctly predicted that massive pushback would emerge from right-wing Israeli settlers and their supporters, and they pledged to conduct a massive public relations campaign on behalf of the deal they were about to strike. Yet they also realized these efforts would matter little to their political survival if Israelis felt unsafe.
The Consequences of Keeping the IDF Out
During the 1993 meeting, Rabin told the participants—who included Ehud Barak, the Israel Defense Forces chief of staff at the time—that he had kept the IDF leadership out of the Oslo backchannel talks because he believed it was wrong in principle to involve the military in a political decision. Had he involved them, his right-wing opponents would presumably have seized upon it as evidence he was politicizing the army. He may also have feared that expanding the circle of officials with knowledge of the talks would risk leaks that could torpedo the process. Moreover, Rabin was known to have great confidence in his analytical judgments and may have believed he did not need the IDF.
Whatever the case, Rabin paid a price for excluding the security establishment. The August 30 cabinet deliberations spent strikingly little time on internal Palestinian politics, perhaps because Israel’s intelligence agencies were not involved in the Oslo process until the implementation stage. This contributed to a crucial misjudgment: although many in the cabinet correctly identified the importance of addressing how the PLO would deal with Hamas, they tended to view this as a question of capacity alone, largely ignoring calculation and political will. Ministers seemed to assume that militarily overpowering Hamas was clearly in the PLO’s interest, and that PLO leaders would therefore prioritize that mission once they were given the necessary resources.
Yet what if PLO officials made a different calculation: namely, to manipulate security cooperation with Israel and increase their leverage in negotiations while simultaneously avoiding deep confrontation with Hamas? No real Israeli conversation materialized about this possibility or related questions of Palestinian political will, so no plans were made for changing the PLO’s cost-benefit calculations on Hamas if necessary. Perhaps Oslo was so much of a seismic paradigm shift that the ministers were unable to see all of the complex permutations waiting just around the corner.
Having seen the agreement for the first time shortly before the meeting, Barak did raise questions about the security arrangements on Gaza and West Bank roads, delineating the myriad challenges of ensuring settler freedom of travel once a new Palestinian entity was given authority over large swaths of territory. Rabin acknowledged these difficulties but argued, “Today you have total control, [but if the Palestinians are granted] autonomy, you have a partnership, and the test is about the partnership. I don’t suggest blurring this.”
The prime minister also noted that he wanted IDF officials involved in future deliberations so that they could provide “professional” assessments of the security implications stemming from Oslo-related political decisions. Indeed, he gave deputy IDF chief of staff Amnon Lipkin-Shahak, his close confidant, a key role in subsequent implementation talks.
Mincing No Words on Final Status
The meeting left no doubt as to Rabin’s views on several other sensitive peace questions. When one minister suggested that Israel might negotiate immediately on the disposition of the territories, Rabin responded that “final status” was impossible at the moment given the parties’ wide differences over Jerusalem, and that forcing negotiations on this issue at the start could lead to an “atomic explosion” politically speaking.
He also understood the political benefits of citing the 1978 Camp David agreement with Egypt as precedent for an interim agreement with the Palestinians, particularly since a right-wing government led by Menachem Begin had negotiated that deal. At the same time, however, Rabin knew that Camp David was at best a limited model for Oslo because there had been no Palestinian representation in those negotiations. Going forward, he understood that direct talks with the PLO would force him to go well beyond the Egypt agreement’s useful but vague formulations.
Rabin was similarly dubious that the Palestinians would hold elections. He told the cabinet that the probability of this happening was “small.”
Rabin’s Subsequent Evolution
By 1995, shortly before his assassination, Rabin no longer spoke of Oslo as reversible. In fact, he warned that if the process failed, the PA and Hamas would join together to fight Israel rather than each other. In an interview with Haaretz that April, he stated, “The alternative to the peace process is its suspension. If that happens, all the Palestinian forces will unite for an enormous effort at terrorist attacks.” He also seemed more concerned about the shortcomings of an interim agreement, telling the interviewer he would prefer separating the populations under a final-status deal: “The reality of mixed populations in which Palestinians from the territories come to Israel and Israelis live in the territories over a widespread area...provides thousands of Israeli targets for terror acts daily.”
Although Rabin’s thinking evolved in some ways, one of his central assessments persisted: that Oslo was the best way to prevent Hamas from dominating West Bank politics and eliminating any peaceful outcome. He concluded, “[If you] leave the situation intact, in which the extremist Islamic elements would increase their power and seize control over the Palestinians in the territories, [it] would leave us without any chance for a political solution.”
*David Makovsky is the Ziegler Distinguished Fellow at The Washington Institute, director of its Koret Project on Arab-Israel Relations, and coauthor (with Dennis Ross) of the book Be Strong and of Good Courage: How Israel’s Most Important Leaders Shaped Its Destiny.

Libya Floods: As Families Search for Loved Ones, Politicians Trade Blame
Ben Fishman/The Washington Institute/September 16/2023
Derna’s future and Libya’s broader political fate will be determined by the race for recovery and the battle of narratives over who is responsible for the tragedy.
The enormity of the destruction in Derna, Libya and the surrounding region is immense. In a city of 100,000, 15-20% of the population could be dead or missing. Another 30,000 are thought to be displaced.
Storm Daniel struck overnight on 11 September, and it took the better part of two days for aid to start trickling in given the road blockages and difficulty navigating the still water and mud-covered city. Several dozen rescuers themselves are thought to be lost. Other stranded families were saved due to the city’s geography, which collapsed the bridges connecting the eastern and western parts of the city.
Two upcoming battles will determine the future of Derna and the broader political future of Libya: the race for recovery and the battle of narratives over who is responsible—and thus who can fix Derna and the country more generally.
The Race for Recovery
The needs of the city remain immense. The one local hospital was quickly overwhelmed and partly flooded. It put out an urgent call for body bags and other protective equipment to prevent the spread of disease while doing what was possible to identify bodies and provide them with dignified burials.
Local NGOs, especially the Libyan Red Crescent, have been on the scene throughout as well as elements of the Libyan Arab Armed Forces, the forces loyal to the eastern warlord, Khalifa Haftar. Other Libyan groups have rushed in resources or, at least made pledges.
Government of National Unity (GNU) Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh immediately allocated 2bn dinars in emergency funding for Derna, but what this money will be used for remains to be seen. The National Oil Corporation dispatched medical personnel and a ship carrying emergency equipment. And the National Electric Company has already restored power to parts of the city.
Regionally, it is no coincidence that Turkey, Egypt, and Italy were the first to deploy aid and rescue specialists. These three countries have the greatest national security interests in Libya. Egypt and Turkey, in particular, have each supported the eastern and western Libyan rivals and have provided them with political and security assistance since the 2020 ceasefire went into effect.
On its part, Egypt sent a military delegation headed by military Chief of Staff Osama Askar to coordinate relief. President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi was on hand to oversee a phalanx of trucks and heavy machinery headed to Libya.
Egypt also deployed a hospital ship to supplement the limited medical services in Derna and surrounding areas. These efforts demonstrate Egypt’s prioritisation of eastern Libya for its national security and the fact they want to ensure their influence in case of any political disruption in the aftermath of the crisis.
Similarly, given its political and security support for the Western-based GNU, Turkey quickly deployed the Turkish Red Crescent to work alongside the Libyan Red Crescent. It also provided three cargo planes full of medical and relief supplies and is deploying a ship to set up two field hospitals. Italy dispatched shelter items, heavy machinery, water rescue teams and rescue helicopters.
Other countries have also responded with significant contributions, including the UK and France; other members of the EU including Spain and Germany; nearby Malta; regional states including Algeria, Jordan and Tunisia; and the Gulf states, Qatar, the UAE, and Kuwait. UN agencies are also on the ground distributing humanitarian relief.
The United States announced on 13 September that it would deploy a Disaster Assistance Response Team (DART) and start with an initial $1mn contribution in relief funds. These humanitarian specialists quickly assess needs and can coordinate urgent responses in situations where significant aid is coming in but not necessarily in an organised manner.
Moreover, since the 11 September 2012 attack on the US Special Mission in Benghazi that killed US Ambassador Chris Stevens and three other Americans, the US has only sent representatives to Eastern Libya a handful of times. If the DART team does deploy to Derna, it could set a new precedent for a more regular return of US personnel to the region.
The most indicative symbol of Libya’s political dysfunction is that Dbeibeh, the prime minister of the UN-recognised, Tripoli-based GNU, cannot visit the disaster zone because he has no authority in the East other than to direct funds. Even his designated crisis committee for addressing the disaster is based in Tripoli. Instead, the pseudo-government and ministers of the breakaway and rival governments in the East with no authority to dispense have been issuing orders and declarations.
The actual power structure in the East lies with General Haftar, who controls the region in an authoritarian manner. Although the Red Crescent has done heroic work, Haftar has long imposed harsh limits on a once vibrant civil society such that many leaders or organisers have left Libya or have been quieted. (The GNU has begun similar intimidation practices, requiring NGOs to register with the government.) Since one key principle of effective humanitarian relief is working with locally organised actors, eastern Libya operates at a disadvantage, placing even more pressure on the Red Crescent.
Blame Game
The blame game has already begun even though all the bodies have not been connected. A viral video shows one irate man accusing all officials in power of their neglect of the country, only to be taken away by one of the brigades under Haftar. There is also strong criticism of local authorities for not providing timely warning—or warning at all—to evacuate the city even though it was well-known that the storm was approaching.
And in a broader context, there were studies about the need to repair or rebuild the two dams that failed. Reconstruction was budgeted and tendered to a Turkish company that could not access the Haftar-controlled area due to Turkey’s relationship with the GNU. Whether the authoritarian general or the uncompromising civilians were to blame, the results were tragic nonetheless.
The first order of business is clearly humanitarian relief. Remarkably, people are still being rescued more than 72 hours after the storm hit. And hopefully, the necessary supplies and equipment will arrive to prevent the spread of disease and help survivors. But all this will occur within the fractured political space in which Libya unfortunately remains stuck.
Haftar will do whatever he can to win the narrative battle against the GNU, citing their incompetence all while repressing dissent, including by limiting access to journalists (a fruitless endeavour given the power of social media). In turn, the GNU will defend itself by blaming Haftar for his failures.
The real solution lies in the will and strength of the Libyan people to overcome this catastrophe. They came together in 2011 to oust Muammar Gaddafi and expressed their desire for change when nearly 3 million registered to vote for elections that were supposed to occur in December 2021. That vote was indefinitely postponed for several practical and political reasons, but the aspirations for change remain strong.
Now may not be the time to begin discussing elections as a solution (if only because recovery from the storm requires full-time attention for months). However, the country needs a politically neutral governance mechanism for individuals who derive their legitimacy locally or regionally. It may also be time to consider a mechanism where an international body like the World Bank can take custodianship over mega-projects, such as repairing dams.
It is among the many ironies of post-Gaddafi Libya that the country has the funds needed for its development (and no debt according to the IMF). But chronic mismanagement and poor governance have led to the disaster seen dramatically over the last week.
*Ben Fishman is a senior fellow at The Washington Institute and former director for North Africa on the National Security Council. This article was originally published on Al Majalla’s website.

American soft power relies on people from everywhere
Nadim Shehadi/Arab News/September 16, 2023
US foreign policy seems to go from one disaster to another but meanwhile its soft power is more successful and ever-growing, and relies on an army of globalized elite that fit the description of “citizens of the world” — people who come from everywhere or, to put it another way, from nowhere in particular.
The concept of “people from nowhere” famously found itself at the center of the Brexit debate in the UK, when Theresa May, the prime minister at the time, said during a Conservative Party conference: “If you believe you are a citizen of the world, you are a citizen of nowhere; you don’t understand what citizenship means.”
This statement embodies the clash between cosmopolitanism and globalization on the one hand versus nationalism and populism on the other. It is also a factor in the recent rise of populist politicians such as Prime Ministers Viktor Orban in Hungary and Narendra Modi in India, and former Presidents Jair Bolsanaro and Donald Trump in Brazil and the US respectively.
If the US can be considered an empire at all, it is more of a corporate one, and the most common signs of a territory it has conquered are branches of McDonald’s or KFC rather than American tanks. On the military front, its imperial adventures after the Second World War essentially have been disastrous, including Vietnam and more recent examples such as Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan.
In the old days, actual empires recruited armies from the places in which they established colonial control, such as the Gurkhas in Nepal, who still form a brigade within the British Army. Similarly, the French had brigades of Senegalese troops, and British adventurer and writer Lady Hester Stanhope, the niece of Prime Minister William Pitt the Younger, traveled the Levant accompanied by her own Albanian troops.
The Ottomans also employed Albanian forces, including the troops commanded by Mohammed Ali Pasha who were sent to Egypt and forged a dynasty that ruled the country for about 150 years, outlasting the Ottomans.
The Ottomans also had the Janissaries, who were recruited as children, initially from the Balkans but later from across the empire, and formed a Turkish elite standing army that served as the sultan’s household troops. Some were originally prisoners of war or slaves but families also sometimes gave up their children willingly, to give them a chance of rising through the ranks in a meritocracy.
In this way, a historical Turkish empire turned people of differing origins into Turks — and the US does a similar thing today. It has the ability, effectively, to turn peoples of different nationalities into corporate Americans.
A “successful” empire absorbs other peoples and compels them to identify with it. The British and the French used to be able to do that, too, and, of course, the Romans excelled at it, so much so that there was even a female-led Syrian Imperial dynasty in Rome.
The modern American corporate empire is composed of people that are, in their own, non-military, present-day ways, similar to the Janissaries. They come from all over the world and are recruited at a young age by big US banks and corporations. The typical recruit has a master’s degree in business administration and then serves a few years in a consulting firm such as McKinsey, Bain or Deloitte, before embarking on a global career in corporate America with the likes of Citicorp or Johnson and Johnson. In this way, they become part of the US soft power apparatus.
It seems everyone in the world wants to come to America but not many want America to come to them.
American universities now have campuses all over the world. In addition, institutions such as INSEAD, the European Institute of Business Administration in Fontainebleau, is like a Janissary training camp, but for corporate America rather than soldiers. About 250,000 people graduate with an MBA each year, about 60 percent of them in the US.
Corporate recruits have many similarities and sometimes it can be difficult to place their origins at first. You can often tell where people are from when you first meet them, as their names, appearance and accents will give some indication, but sometimes the signs can be confusing. In our region, for example, they might be from anywhere between Morocco and Bangladesh, and the situation is similar in Latin America or parts of Asia.
The thing that they have in common is that they have all gone through a process of homogenization and been “formatted” to look, sound and sometimes even think the same. They certainly have a language all of their own. I have been to parties in London and New York where I have met people just like that, who talk the same, dress the same — and seem to live on sushi.
There is also a phenomenon that has evolved more recently, also with its roots in the US, which is fueling the global digital economy through US tech giants such as Facebook, Apple, Intel or Amazon. This sector also has a language all of its own, with keywords such as entrepreneurship, startup, innovation, ecosystem, incubator, angel investor and scaling up.
This new culture is populated by “hipsters” who are tuned in to the latest trends and fads. Once again, you can find them almost anywhere in the world. I once asked my daughter and her friends how they would define what qualifies as “hip.” Their answer was that as soon as someone like me becomes aware of it, it is no longer hip.
Hipsters meet in cafes or coworking spaces in places such as Lagos, Dubai or Singapore and, through a global filtering process, the creme de la creme end up in the US in Silicon Valley or other centers of innovation, such as Boston. They become a part of globalized US soft power, with a subculture and fashions of their own.
The majority of people working in Silicon Valley are foreign-born. According to one report, in 2014, 74 percent of people between the ages of 25 and 44 working there in jobs related to computing and mathematics were born in other countries, and so were many top executives. It is safe to say, therefore, that the leaders of American corporations are a cosmopolitan elite that “come from everywhere.”
The world is certainly going through a clear phase in which nationalism and populism, as well as identity politics, are on the rise. But the polarity implied by Theresa May’s statement about the Brexit debate represents a false dichotomy.
A person can, in fact, be both a citizen of the world who cares about global problems such as the environment and climate change, while at the same time embracing a firmly rooted sense of national identity. They can also be cosmopolitan while maintaining their cultural heritage. In fact, those who do both are much more valuable as mediators and interlocutors, as they have shown that they are capable of maintaining a connection with their roots while also engaging with the wider “Americanized” global culture.
Turkish writer Elif Shafak quotes 13th-century poet Jalal Al-Din Rumi in comparing identity to the geometrical tool known as a compass: It has one leg that is firmly positioned and fixed in one place, while the other can move in a perfect circle, maintaining the same distance throughout. In other words, one person can be many things at the same time and there is no such thing as a homogenous identity. There never was — Rumi himself had multiple identities. This might be the best definition of global American culture.
Given the fiascos of recent American military interventions and the successes of its global soft power, it seems everyone in the world wants to come to America but not many want America to come to them.
• Nadim Shehadi is a Lebanese economist.
Twitter: @Confusezeus