Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on October 22-23/2023
The Beatification of Maronite Patriarch Estephan Douaihy... A Testament of Faith for Lebanon/Elias Bajani, October 22, 2023
Hezbollah official says his group already ‘is in the heart’ of Israel-Hamas war
Netanyahu says Hezbollah war against Israel would be 'mistake of its life'
Hezbollah 'dragging Lebanon into a war', Israeli army warns
Mikati says efforts ongoing to 'stop Israeli attacks on Lebanon'
Fleeing Israeli strikes, south Lebanon families move into schools
Blinken notes 'growing concern' over Lebanon-Israel tensions in call with Mikati
Israel evacuates 14 North settlements near Lebanon border
Middle East Airlines Adjusts Flight Schedule Starting October 22
Israeli military's shifting focus: From Gaza to Lebanon amid escalating tensions
Aboul Gheit calls Mikati to discuss regional developments
Mikati: I call on our people to trust that necessary efforts ongoing to keep any harm away from Lebanon
Middle East Airlines Adjusts Flight Schedule Starting October 22
Qassem says Hezbollah already 'in the heart' of Israel-Hamas war
Hezbollah alone will decide whether Lebanon gets dragged into Israel-Hamas war/Asher Kaufman/Associated Press/University of Notre Dame/October 22, 2023

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on October 22-23/2023
Israel strikes Gaza, Syria and West Bank as war against Hamas threatens to ignite other fronts
Israel pounds Gaza amid fears of wider Middle East conflictScroll back up to restore default view.
Second aid convoy enters Egyptian side of Rafah crossing en route to Gaza, sources say
Israel strikes Gaza, Syria and West Bank as war against Hamas threatens to ignite other fronts
Israel did not bomb that hospital, according to the latest intelligence. It's a reminder that in war, all sides engage in propaganda.
Canada has 'high degree of confidence' Israel didn't strike hospital in Gaza: Blair
Israel welcomes Canada's conclusion that Israel didn't strike hospital in Gaza
Civilians in Gaza are terrorist sympathisers, warns Israeli military
Death toll in Palestine rises to 4,651 with nearly 2,000 Palestinian children dead
US to send more air defense systems to Mideast, ups troop preparedness
Qatar says mediation will lead to Hamas hostage releases 'very soon'
US-led troops in Iraq reportedly targeted by suicide drone
Israel is now fighting on 3 fronts as airstrikes and violence escalate across the Palestinian territories, Lebanon, and Syria
Israel warns Gaza airstrikes will intensify and hits West Bank ahead of war’s ‘next stage’
US upping Mid East presence due to risk of attacks on American troops, Austin says
Iran warns Mideast could 'go out of control' as Israel steps up attacks: Live updates
US advises citizens not to travel to Iraq after recent attacks on US personnel
Egypt's border crossing opens to let a trickle of desperately needed aid into besieged Gaza
Russian casualties soar by 90% as Putin's generals order furious attacks on small city in east, UK intelligence says
Thousands protest in Paris, demand 'an end to the massacre in Gaza'
Cairo Peace Summit: Arab and Western clashing perspectives
UNRWA announces death of 29 of its employees in Gaza
Detroit synagogue president found stabbed to death outside home
Iran to host Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process talks amid Middle East tensions

Titles For The Latest English LCCC  analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on October 22-23/2023
Palestine: A Cause or a State?/Amir Taheri/Asharq Al-Awsat /October 22, 2023
China's Proxy Wars Are 'Encircling' America/Gordon G. Chang/Gatestone Institute./October 22, 2023
Regional upheaval offers Assad regime a window to recalibrate/Zaid M. Belbagi/Arab News/October 22, 2023
How Jordan and Syria can cooperate to improve relations/Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/October 22, 2023
Brinkmanship Politics/Charles Elias Chartouni/Face Book/October 22/2023
Israel-Gaza conflict only serves to benefit Hamas, Iran, Israeli far-right/Nadim Shehadi/Alarabiya/October 22/2023
A Message to Khaled Meshaal/Tariq Al-Homayed/ Asharq Al-Awsat/October 22/2023

Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on October 22-23/2023
The Beatification of Maronite Patriarch Estephan Douaihy... A Testament of Faith for Lebanon
Elias Bajani, October 22, 2023
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/123408/123408/
We thank the Lord for His spiritual gifts and blessings bestowed upon the Maronite believers, represented by the clergy and monks. We joyfully and reverently thank Him for the grace of beatifying Maronite Patriarch Douaihy in the Vatican on the past Thursday, October 19, 2023, adding him to the ranks of the saints in our Maronite Church. These saints include:
Saint Maron, the Father of the Maronite Church
Saint John Maron, the first Patriarch of the Maronite Church
Saint Jacob, a disciple of Saint Maron
Saint Simeon Stylites the Elder, a disciple of Saint Maron
Saints Cyra and Marana, disciples of Saint Maron
Saint Domnina, a disciple of Saint Maron
The 350 Maronite Saints
Saint Marina of Qannoubine
Saint Sharbel Makhlouf, the Lebanese Maronite monk
Saint Rafqa Al Rayess, the Lebanese Maronite nun
Saint Nimatullah Kassab, the Lebanese Maronite monk
Blessed Maronite Martyrs Francis, Abd El-Moati, and Raphael
Saint Charbel Makhlouf
Saint Thérèse
Saint Maroun
And many more.
The beatification of Patriarch Douaihy is a significant historical moment for our Church, our people, and our faith values. It symbolically affirms the sanctity of his life and his contribution to the Church and society, prompting the Maronite people to return to the wellsprings of faith and emulate the lives of the saints.
To understand the importance of beatification, one must recognize the role of saints in Christian teachings and traditions. Saints are individuals who lived exemplary Christian lives, and their sanctification is a recognition of their virtuous deeds and the examples they set for Christians. Our Church believes that saints act as intermediaries between people and God, responding to prayers and requests made to them. We witness the wonders of Saint Charbel, which are countless in Lebanon and most parts of the world.
As a brief historical reminder, the Maronites trace their origins back to the 5th century when they separated from the Eastern Church and became an independent Church. The Maronite Patriarchate and the Maronites are integral to the fabric of Lebanese identity and heritage.
While the Maronite Church is a part of the Western Catholic Church, it retains its distinct traditions and rituals.
In conclusion, the beatification of Maronite Patriarch Douaihy is a tribute to the Maronite Church, a reflection of the rich history of the Maronites deeply rooted in the land of Lebanon, a testament to holiness and the saints.
Patriarch Douaihy's beatification elevates the status of the Maronite community and underscores the deep devotion of its followers. It is a moment of admiration and respect for every believer, emphasizing the importance of reevaluating Maronite Christian history, identity, and faith.
The beatification of Maronite Patriarch Douaihy brings hope, renewal, and a sense of purpose to the Maronites and all Lebanese, reminding them of the significance of dedicated service to faith, Christian values, Lebanon's essence, identity, history, and sanctity.

Hezbollah official says his group already ‘is in the heart’ of Israel-Hamas war
AP/October 22, 2023
BEIRUT: A top official with Hezbollah vowed that Israel will pay a high price whenever it starts a ground offensive in the Gaza Strip and said Saturday that his militant group based in Lebanon already is “in the heart of the battle.”The comments by Hezbollah’s deputy leader, Sheikh Naim Kassem, came as Israel shelled and made drone strikes in southern Lebanon and Hezbollah fired rockets and missiles toward Israel. Hezbollah said six of its fighters were killed Saturday, the highest daily toll since the violence began two weeks ago. For Hezbollah, heating up the Lebanon-Israel border has a clear purpose, Kassem said: “We are trying to weaken the Israeli enemy and let them know that we are ready.” Hamas officials have said that if Israel starts a ground offensive in Gaza, Hezbollah will join the fighting. Exchanges of fire along the Lebanon-Israel border have picked up in the two weeks since the attack by the Palestinian militant group Hamas that killed over 1,400 civilians and soldiers in southern Israel. Retaliatory Israeli airstrikes on Gaza have killed more than 4,000 Palestinians. There are concerns that Iran-backed Hezbollah, which has a weapons arsenal consisting of tens of thousands of rockets and missiles as well as different types of drones, might try to open a new front in the Israel-Hamas war with a large-scale attack on northern Israel. Kassem said his group, which is allied with Hamas, already was affecting the course of the conflict by heating up the Lebanon-Israel border and keeping three Israeli army divisions tied up in the north instead of preparing to fight in Gaza. “Do you believe that if you try to crush the Palestinian resistance, other resistance fighters in the region will not act?” Kassem said in a speech Saturday during the funeral of a Hezbollah fighter. “We are in the heart of the battle today. We are making achievements through this battle.” On Friday, the Israeli military announced the evacuation of a border city where three residents were wounded in the crossfire a day earlier. Lebanon’s state-run National News Agency reported that an Israeli drone fired a missile on a valley in the Sejoud area, about 20 kilometers (12 miles) north of the Israeli border. Hezbollah did not immediately confirm the attack, but if true it would mark a major escalation as it is deep inside Lebanon and far from the border. An Associated Press journalist in south Lebanon reported hearing loud explosions Saturday along the border, close to the Mediterranean coast.
Hezbollah said its fighters attacked several Israeli positions and also targeted an Israeli infantry force, “scoring direct hits.”Lebanon’s state-run National News Agency reported Israeli shelling of several villages and said a car took a direct hit in the village of Houla. On Saturday evening, shelling intensified around an Israeli army post across from the Lebanese village of Yaroun. Hezbollah said six of its fighters were killed Saturday, raising the total of Lebanese militants killed to 19 since Oct. 7. Israeli army spokesman Avichay Adraee said a group of gunmen fired a shell into Israel and an Israeli drone was launched back toward them. A drone also was dispatched after another group of gunmen fired toward the Israeli town of Margaliot, Adraee said. “Direct hits were scored in both strikes,” Adraee posted on X, formerly known as Twitter.
Hezbollah’s Kassem spoke about foreign dignitaries who visited Lebanon over the past two weeks asking Lebanese officials to convince the group not to take part in the latest Hamas-Israel battle. He said Hezbollah’s response to Lebanese officials was, “We are part of the battle.”“We tell those who are contacting us, ‘Stop the (Israeli) aggression so that its (conflict) repercussions and possibility of expansion stops,’” Kassem said, referring to the officials who recently visited Beirut, including the foreign ministers of France and Germany. Speaking about an expected Israeli ground invasion of Gaza, Kassem, said: “Our information are that the preparedness in Gaza by Hamas and resistance fighters will make (the) Israeli ground invasion their graveyard.”

Netanyahu says Hezbollah war against Israel would be 'mistake of its life'
Agence France Presse/October 22, 2023
Hezbollah will make "the mistake of its life" if it starts a war with Israel, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Sunday. Hezbollah "will make the mistake of its life. We will strike it with a force it cannot even imagine, and the significance for it and the state of Lebanon will be devastating," Netanyahu said on a visit to troops in northern Israel near the Lebanese border.

Hezbollah 'dragging Lebanon into a war', Israeli army warns
Agence France Presse/October 22, 2023
Hezbollah's escalating attacks on Israel risk "dragging Lebanon into a war," Israel's military said Sunday, after renewed cross-border exchanges of fire that have raised fears of a wider conflict. "Hezbollah... is dragging Lebanon into a war that it will gain nothing from, but stands to lose a lot," Israeli army spokesman Jonathan Conricus said. "Hezbollah is playing a very, very dangerous game. They're escalating the situation. We see more and more attacks every day. Is the Lebanese state really willing to jeopardize what is left of Lebanese prosperity and Lebanese sovereignty for the sake of terrorists in Gaza?" he added. So far this weekend, cross-border attacks have killed six Hezbollah fighters and a member of Palestinian militant group Islamic Jihad in Lebanon, while three Israeli troops were wounded, one seriously, in Hezbollah anti-tank fire. Two Thai farm workers were also hurt in Israel. On Sunday, Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati said diplomatic efforts were ongoing to "stop Israeli attacks on Lebanon" and prevent the Gaza conflict from spilling into his country. Tit-for-tat attacks at the border have so far been relatively contained, but analysts have warned that the chances of Hezbollah scaling up involvement could hinge on any Israeli ground invasion of Gaza. Hezbollah number two Sheikh Naim Qassem warned Saturday that the group could step up its engagement, as the group announced a series of attacks against Israeli and contested territory. On Sunday morning, the Israeli army said its forces "identified a terrorist cell attempting to launch anti-tank missiles toward the Avivim area along the border with Lebanon." "Soldiers struck the cell before it was able to carry out the attack," it said. The Israeli army also said a cell fired an anti-tank missile at an Israeli tank "in the area of Har Dov," a site in the disputed Shebaa Farms border district. "In response, the tank fired toward the cell," it added, reporting no damage or casualties on the Israeli side.
- Evacuations -
Lebanon's official National News Agency said Israeli aircraft overflew south Lebanon on Sunday morning, adding Israel was bombing various sites along both the border areas. Since October 7, exchanges of fire across the frontier have killed at least four people in Israel -- three soldiers and one civilian. In southern Lebanon, at least 29 people have been killed, according to an AFP tally -- mostly combatants but also including at least four civilians, one of them a Reuters journalist. Israel has ordered dozens of northern communities to evacuate, and several thousand Lebanese have fled border regions for the southern city of Tyre. On Sunday, the Israeli defense ministry said they were evacuating 14 additional communities from the area. The Iran-backed Hezbollah fought a devastating war with Israel in 2006 that left more than 1,200 dead in Lebanon, mostly civilians, and 160 dead in Israel, mostly soldiers.

Mikati says efforts ongoing to 'stop Israeli attacks on Lebanon'
Agence France Presse/October 22, 2023
Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati said Sunday that diplomatic efforts were ongoing to "stop Israeli attacks on Lebanon" and prevent the Gaza conflict from spilling into the country. "Lebanon's friends are with us in continuing to make every effort to return the situation to normal," Mikati said in a statement. However, Lebanon was developing an emergency response plan "as a precaution," he added. Tit-for-tat attacks at the Lebanese-Israeli border have so far been relatively contained, but analysts have warned that the chances of Hezbollah scaling up involvement could hinge on any Israeli ground invasion of Gaza.

Fleeing Israeli strikes, south Lebanon families move into schools
Agence France Presse/October 22, 2023
Shocked by images of dead children in Gaza, Mustafa al-Sayyid quickly whisked his family to the closest shelter when Israeli strikes began near his village in southern Lebanon this week. "What we are seeing on television -- the massacres happening in Gaza, the children -- it cuts your heart to pieces," said the 53-year-old from Beit Leef, barely six kilometers from the Israeli border. "If I wasn't afraid this would happen to us, I wouldn't have left my home," said Sayyid, who has two wives and 11 children, around half of whom are under 10. The family is among nearly 4,000 people who have fled flashpoint areas near the Israeli frontier and flocked to the southern city of Tyre, according to local officials. Around half are staying in three public schools that have been converted into makeshift shelters, while the rest hunker down with relatives or friends. The scale of displacement has gradually swelled since the Palestinian militant group Hamas launched a massive October 7 assault on southern Israel in the deadliest attack in Israel's history. Since then, some 4,385 Palestinians, mainly civilians, have been killed in relentless Israeli bombardments, according to Gaza's Hamas-run health ministry.
The tensions have spread to the Lebanese-Israeli border, where near-daily tit-for-tat attacks have emptied out entire villages. At least 22 people, including four civilians, have been killed on the Lebanese side, according to an AFP tally. And at least three soldiers and one civilian have died in Israel. Sayyid, whose brother was killed in the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah, said he wants to avoid any more family deaths. "All my children are young. If the apocalypse comes, how will I get them all out in one go?" he wondered inside a classroom stripped of desks and dotted with thin mattresses. "So I thought, better to leave now."
'Shelters at full capacity' -
Fears of a spillover loom large in Lebanon's border villages, which were occupied by Israeli forces for 22 years before their withdrawal in 2000. A steady stream of families, mostly from the pummelled village of Aita al-Shaab, queued at the Tyre municipality this week to secure a spot in one of the classrooms. "We have reached full capacity in all of our shelters," said Tyre mayor Hassan Dbouk. "Now we are looking for a place to open a fourth center." In the border village of Dhayra, farms and olive groves have been abandoned at the height of the harvest season. Farmers already crushed by a four-year-long economic crisis in Lebanon are bracing for an uncertain fate -- even if the fighting abruptly stops. "Everyone in Dhayra relies on farming. We have nothing but God and agriculture," said Moussa Suwaid, 47, speaking outside the Tyre shelter where he has been staying for a week. "I have five sheep, each worth around $500. I left them without food and ran away," he added. He also was forced to leave behind his 88-year-old father and his cow. "He told me he would rather die than abandon the cow and his home," Suwaid said.
'Sadness underneath' -
Ravaged by an economic crisis that has been widely blamed on official corruption and ineptitude, Lebanon has not implemented an evacuation plan. Instead, the villagers have left under their own steam, strapping bags to motorcycles or hitching rides with neighbors. Yulla Suwaid, unrelated to Moussa, said she waited for two hours in a pool of her own blood before her brother came to save her during an Israeli bombardment that destroyed their Dhayra home last Wednesday. The 43-year-old school teacher was running down the stairs when the strike sent part of the wall crashing down on her legs, leaving her badly wounded. "If I had completely lost my legs, what would I have done? Who would have taken care of me?" she asked at a shelter in Tyre, both legs fully bandaged after surgery. In a nearby school, Ahmad from Beit Leef said he had planned to get married this month. Instead, the 26-year-old buried his father, who died of cancer, as the Israelis shelled nearby. He then fled to Tyre with his fiancee's family. Declining to provide his surname due to security concerns, Ahmad fought back tears as he recalled one of his father's last actions. "I made him go to my fiancee's family to ask for her hand in marriage," he told AFP. "I smile, but there is a lot of sadness underneath."

Blinken notes 'growing concern' over Lebanon-Israel tensions in call with Mikati
Agence France Presse/October 22, 2023
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has noted "growing concern over rising tensions" on the Lebanese-Israeli border in a telephone call with caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati, a statement said. Blinken, however, "underscored continued U.S. support" for Lebanon's army, security forces and people, spokesperson Matthew Miller said in the Saturday statement.

Israel evacuates 14 North settlements near Lebanon border
LBCI/October 22, 2023
After Israel evacuated 28 settlements along the border with Lebanon earlier this week, all of which were within a 2-kilometer range from the border, and after also evacuating the Kiryat Shmona settlement on Friday, which had over 20,000 residents, a new decision has been issued to evacuate 14 other northern settlements.
Some of these settlements fall within a 5-kilometer range.
However, the reason behind this decision is that they are situated in areas facing the front lines where daily clashes are occurring.
The settlements include Snir, Dan, Beit Hillel, She’ra Yashuv, and Hagoshrim, all close to Al-Ghajar town and the Shebaa Farms. This area is one of the axes witnessing daily confrontations.
In addition to these, the following settlements are also being evacuated:
- Matzuva, behind Hanita barracks, facing Alma Al-Shsab
- Eylon, Goren, Gornot HaGalil, facing Dhayra
- Even Menachem, behind Zerit barracks, facing Marwahin
- The settlements of Sasa and Tziv’on, behind Dovev barracks, facing Yaroun town
- The settlement of Ramot Naftali, facing the town of Blida
All these areas are witnessing daily clashes.
Lastly, Liman on the coast because it is exposed to missile attacks from the Qlaileh Valley.

Middle East Airlines Adjusts Flight Schedule Starting October 22
LBCI/October 22, 2023
Middle East Airlines – the Lebanese Airlines announced on Sunday its flight schedule for Tuesday, October 24, 2023, after the company decided to reduce the number of its flights and reschedule them starting from the early morning of Sunday, October 22, 2023.

Israeli military's shifting focus: From Gaza to Lebanon amid escalating tensions
LBCI/October 22, 2023
The Israeli army continues to supply the southern region with more military equipment and points the barrels of its armored vehicles toward Gaza, awaiting Israeli orders to launch a ground operation there. But its military focus remains on Lebanon amid escalating tensions that have put all towns and settlements in the north under the threat of Hezbollah's missiles and drones. Israel has continued to evacuate settlements near Lebanon, adding 14 new settlements to the 28 evacuated last week, all within five kilometers of the border. Like Gaza, the Israeli-Lebanese border has become a top priority for Tel Aviv.
An important meeting took place with the Chief of the General Staff of the Israeli Army, Herzi Halevi, who rarely appeared since October 7, with Israeli soldiers at their bases on the Gaza and Lebanon fronts. Furthermore, he threatened to dismantle Hezbollah's capabilities on the northern borders and attempted to boost the army's morale in preparation for a ground operation in Gaza. The ground operation has once again been postponed due to operational reasons and US pressure, in addition to the anticipated risks for the army if it enters the Gaza Strip, given the expected ambushes. However, the postponement of the ground operation did not prevent the Israeli Defense Minister from revealing three stages for it. The first stage aims to eliminate Hamas and its military infrastructure, while the second stage will continue for a more extended period, during which internal matters in Gaza will be organized, leading to establishing a new security system. Between the fronts of Lebanon on the one hand and Gaza on the other, a new warning has emerged about the danger of opening up a third battlefield in the West Bank, following the shelling of the Jenin camp and intensified military operations inside West Bank towns.
With three potential fronts opening against Israel, a security report talks about the lack of readiness of the Israeli army to engage in a ground operation on its own.
So, how will the army fare when faced with at least three fronts?

Aboul Gheit calls Mikati to discuss regional developments
LBCI/October 22, 2023
Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati received on Sunday a call from Secretary-General of the Arab League, Ahmed Aboul Gheit, who briefed him on the atmosphere of the "Cairo Summit for Peace" held yesterday.They discussed the current developments and the situation in Lebanon, in addition to ongoing efforts to halt the Israeli aggression on Gaza.

Mikati: I call on our people to trust that necessary efforts ongoing to keep any harm away from Lebanon
LBCI/October 22, 2023
Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati said on Sunday that diplomatic communications on an international and regional level, as well as local meetings, are ongoing to halt Israeli attacks on Lebanon, particularly in the south, and prevent the spread of the conflict in Gaza to Lebanon. 'I understand the fear and concern that the Lebanese people are experiencing due to the ongoing events, and the calls from several embassies for their citizens to leave Lebanon. However, I will not hesitate to exert every effort to protect Lebanon,' he stated addressing visitors today. He added that “the meetings and preparations we are undertaking to develop an emergency plan to face potential events are a fundamental precautionary step. We are facing a historic enemy with a bloody history. Yet, at the same time, we are reassured that Lebanon's true friends continue to make every effort to return the situation to normal and prevent it from deteriorating further.'

Middle East Airlines Adjusts Flight Schedule Starting October 22
LBCI/October 22, 2023
Middle East Airlines – the Lebanese Airlines announced on Sunday its flight schedule for Tuesday, October 24, 2023, after the company decided to reduce the number of its flights and reschedule them starting from the early morning of Sunday, October 22, 2023.

Qassem says Hezbollah already 'in the heart' of Israel-Hamas war
Associated Press/October 22, 2023
Hezbollah deputy chief Sheikh Naim Qassem has vowed that Israel will pay a high price whenever it starts a ground offensive in the Gaza Strip, saying that his Lebanon-based group already is "in the heart of the battle."The comments by Qassem came as Israel shelled and made drone strikes in southern Lebanon and Hezbollah fired rockets and missiles toward Israel. Hezbollah said six of its fighters were killed Saturday, the highest daily toll since the violence began two weeks ago. For Hezbollah, heating up the Lebanon-Israel border has a clear purpose, Qassem said: "We are trying to weaken the Israeli enemy and let them know that we are ready." Hamas officials have said that if Israel starts a ground offensive in Gaza, Hezbollah will join the fighting. Exchanges of fire along the Lebanon-Israel border have picked up in the two weeks since the attack by the Palestinian militant group Hamas that allegedly killed over 1,400 civilians and soldiers in southern Israel. Retaliatory Israeli airstrikes on Gaza have killed more than 4,000 Palestinians. There are concerns that Iran-backed Hezbollah, which has a weapons arsenal consisting of tens of thousands of rockets and missiles as well as different types of drones, might try to open a new front in the Israel-Hamas war with a large-scale attack on northern Israel. Qassem said his group, which is allied with Hamas, already was affecting the course of the conflict by heating up the Lebanon-Israel border and keeping three Israeli army divisions tied up in the north instead of preparing to fight in Gaza. "Do you believe that if you try to crush the Palestinian resistance, other resistance fighters in the region will not act?" Qassem said in a speech Saturday during the funeral of a Hezbollah fighter. "We are in the heart of the battle today. We are making achievements through this battle."On Friday, the Israeli military announced the evacuation of a border city where three residents were wounded in the crossfire a day earlier.
Lebanon's state-run National News Agency reported that an Israeli drone fired a missile on a valley in the Sejoud area, about 20 kilometers (12 miles) north of the Israeli border. Hezbollah did not immediately confirm the attack, but if true it would mark a major escalation as it is deep inside Lebanon and far from the border. The Israeli army later announced that it bombed an area from which a surface-to-air missile targeted one of its drones in an apparent reference to the incident. Hezbollah said Saturday that its fighters attacked several Israeli positions and also targeted an Israeli infantry force, "scoring direct hits."Lebanon's state-run National News Agency reported Israeli shelling of several villages and said a car took a direct hit in the village of Houla. On Saturday evening, shelling intensified around an Israeli army post across from the Lebanese village of Yaroun.
Hezbollah said six of its fighters were killed Saturday, raising the total of Lebanese militants killed to 19 since Oct. 7. Israeli army spokesman Avichay Adraee said a group of gunmen fired a shell into Israel and an Israeli drone was launched back toward them. A drone also was dispatched after another group of gunmen fired toward the Israeli town of Margaliot, Adraee said. "Direct hits were scored in both strikes," Adraee posted on X, formerly known as Twitter. Hezbollah's Qassem spoke about foreign dignitaries who visited Lebanon over the past two weeks asking Lebanese officials to convince the group not to take part in the latest Hamas-Israel battle. He said Hezbollah's response to Lebanese officials was, "We are part of the battle." "We tell those who are contacting us, 'Stop the (Israeli) aggression so that its (conflict) repercussions and possibility of expansion stops,'" Qassem said, referring to the officials who recently visited Beirut, including the foreign ministers of France and Germany. Speaking about an expected Israeli ground invasion of Gaza, Qassem, said: "Our information are that the preparedness in Gaza by Hamas and resistance fighters will make (the) Israeli ground invasion their graveyard."

Analysis: Hezbollah alone will decide whether Lebanon gets dragged into Israel-Hamas war
Asher Kaufman/Associated Press/University of Notre Dame/October 22, 2023
Lebanon, which is teetering on the edge of economic and political collapse, risks becoming entangled in the escalating war between Israel and Hamas. Hezbollah has been gearing up for the possibility of joining the fight ever since Hamas’ surprise assault on Oct. 7, 2023, killed nearly 1,400 people, leading to Israel’s declaration of war a day later. The Shiite militant group has launched multiple attacks on Israeli targets from Lebanon, prompting return fire from the Israel Defense Forces. Over a dozen people have died, mostly Hezbollah fighters but also at least a few civilians on both sides of the border, including a Reuters photojournalist. As a historian, I have focused my research and teaching on the dynamics of conflict and cooperation involving Israelis, Lebanese and Palestinians. If a war between Hezbollah and Israel does erupt, the already significant violence and destruction in southern Israel and Gaza will likely be greatly compounded by further massive loss of life in Lebanon, Israel and perhaps in other parts of the Middle East. Hezbollah’s decision whether to fully join the war may answer a question that has been preoccupying analysts of the organization for decades: Is its priority the well-being of Lebanon or acting as a proxy for Iran?
A decades-old conflict -
The Israeli-Palestinian conflict has been spilling into Lebanon since 1948, with the establishment of Israel and displacement of Palestinians, or what the latter call the Nakba, or catastrophe. In fact, no Arab country has been more affected by this conflict. About 110,000 Palestinians took refuge in Lebanon in 1948. Today, the number is about 210,000, and they are denied basic rights. In surveys, many Lebanese have said they resent the Palestinian refugees in the country and blame them for the eruption of the Lebanese civil war, which took place from 1975 to 1990. An estimated 120,000 died during the fighting, the scars of which can still be seen in the capital of Beirut. Israel was deeply embroiled in the Lebanese civil war. It supported Christian militias and pursued its own fight against Palestinian militias, who used Lebanon as a base to launch attacks against the Jewish state. In 1982, Israel invaded Lebanon in order to wipe out the Palestine Liberation Organization and establish a pro-Israeli Christian government in Beirut. Neither objective was achieved.
Hezbollah becomes Lebanon’s strongest force -
Since its foundation in 1920, Lebanon and its politics have been dominated by a sectarian system in which government and state positions are divided among the 18 officially recognized religious sects, most notably Sunnis, Maronite Christians, Druze and Shiites. Each sect has mandated representation in government. Today, the Shiite population is the largest sect in the country, making up 30% to 40% of the general population -- but no exact figure is available because the sensitivity of the matter has meant no official census has been conducted since 1932. For decades, Lebanon’s sectarian system has resulted in what scholars call “hybrid sovereignty.” Political elites who represent their sects in the sectarian system are both part of the state apparatus and also operate outside of it by providing their constituents services that are normally the responsibility of government, from providing marriage licenses to armed protection. Hezbollah formed in 1982 with Iranian and Syrian support to fight Israel after its invasion. It is by far the country’s strongest political, socioeconomic and military force. This is due to the support of Iran and a strong and cohesive internal social structure among its Shiite followers in the country. Not all Shiites identify with Hezbollah, but no doubt many of them sympathize with its causes. Hezbollah also operates within the hybrid structure of the sectarian system by playing an integral part in the government but also by functioning as a state unto itself. For example, it boasts its own military force, which is far stronger than the formal Lebanese army, and provides social, educational and economic services to Shiites. In fact, no group has benefited more from this sectarian hybrid system than Hezbollah.
Lebanon in free fall -
Despite the fractured political system and weak state, Lebanon has managed to retain some stability and vitality, even under the duress of the Syrian civil war, which began in 2011. Things took a severe turn in October 2019, when years of Ponzi-like financial mismanagement, excessive borrowing and a sharp decline in remittances from abroad led the Lebanese economy to melt down. The World Bank has described it as one of the worst economic crises since the mid-19th century. The crisis sparked large-scale protests across the country, known as the “October 17 revolution,” in which the Lebanese demanded social and economic justice, an end to corruption and the dismantling of the sectarian political system. As a result, foreign donors were alarmed, foreign currency flowed out of the country, banks shut their doors to depositors, the government defaulted on its debt and the local currency collapsed. A massive blast at the Beirut port in August 2020, which killed 225 people and caused billions of dollars in damage, further exacerbated the socioeconomic and political conditions in the country. And since October 2022, the Lebanese political system has been in complete gridlock, given the inability of the political class to agree on a new president and a new government. Hezbollah has been the least affected by the national crisis among political forces in the country and has emerged as a staunch defender of the political system that nurtured it.
Some already see Lebanon as a failed state, so the last thing the country needs is to become part of another war.
‘Back to the Stone Age’? -
But whether Lebanon becomes a part of the war, ultimately, is not up to the Lebanese government. The current caretaker prime minister, Najib Mikati, has cautioned against a war with Israel, as did Druze and Maronite political leaders, who have traditionally opposed Hezbollah’s military hegemony in Lebanon. Mikati acknowledged, however, that he holds no power to decide whether Lebanon will go to war, reflecting the paradoxes of the Lebanese political system in which the most crucial decision any national leadership could make -- the decision to launch a war -- does not rest within the government but within Hezbollah and by extension within Iran. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has repeatedly stated that the group’s prime role is to defend Lebanon’s sovereignty. Its commitment to Iran, on the other hand, has been openly demonstrated through its direct involvement in the Syrian civil war, which saved Bashar Assad’s government. But that war was fought mostly on Syrian soil. A war with Israel would be very different. It would be another tragic page in the history of Lebanon if Hezbollah were to join the war against Israel, in purported support for Palestinians in Gaza. It could prompt Israel -- in the words of Defense Minister Yoav Gallant -- to try to send Lebanon “back to the Stone Age.” Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s secretary-general, already answered in kind. It would also likely lead to the broader regional war that U.S. officials, including President Joe Biden, have been trying so desperately to avoid. And Lebanon itself would move closer to the brink of absolute and irreversible collapse. This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license.
Read the original article here: https://theconversation.com/hezbollah-alone-will-decide-whether-lebanon-already-on-the-brink-of-collapse-gets-dragged-into-israel-hamas-war-212078.

Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on October 22-23/2023
Israel strikes Gaza, Syria and West Bank as war against Hamas threatens to ignite other fronts
Israel pounds Gaza amid fears of wider Middle East conflictScroll back up to restore default view.
RAFAH, Gaza Strip (AP)/October 22, 2023
Israeli warplanes struck targets across Gaza, two airports in Syria and a mosque in the occupied West Bank allegedly used by militants, as the 2-week-old war with Hamas threatened to spiral Sunday into a broader conflict. Israel has traded fire with Lebanon's Hezbollah militant group since the war began, and tensions are soaring in the occupied West Bank, where Israeli forces have battled militants in refugee camps and carried out two airstrikes in recent days. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told troops in northern Israel that if Hezbollah launches a war, "it will make the mistake of its life. We will cripple it with a force it cannot even imagine and the consequences for it and the Lebanese state will be devastating.”For days, Israel has seemed to be on the verge of launching a ground offensive in Gaza following Hamas' deadly Oct. 7 rampage, with tanks and troops massed at the border. Israel’s military spokesman, Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari, said the country had increased airstrikes across Gaza to hit targets that would reduce the risk to troops in the next stage of the war. Hamas said it fought with Israeli forces near Khan Younis in southern Gaza and destroyed a tank and two bulldozers. The Israeli military said it had no information about the claim. On Saturday, 20 trucks entered Gaza in the first aid shipment into the territory since Israel imposed a complete siege two weeks ago.
Egypt’s state-run media reported 17 more trucks crossing Sunday, but the United Nations said none had crossed. “Until now, there is no convoy,” said Juliette Touma, spokeswoman for the U.N. agency for Palestinian refugees.
Associated Press journalists saw seven fuel trucks head north from the border, but Touma and the Israeli military said those trucks were taking fuel that had been stored on the Gaza side of the crossing deeper into the territory, and that no fuel had entered from Egypt.
In a sign of how precarious any movement of aid remains, the Egyptian military said in a statement that Israeli shelling hit a watchtower on Egypt's side of the border, causing light injuries. The Israeli military apologized, saying a tank had accidentally fired and hit an Egyptian post, and the incident was being investigated. Relief workers said far more aid was needed to address the spiraling humanitarian crisis in Gaza, where half the territory's 2.3 million people have fled their homes. The U.N. humanitarian agency, known as OCHA, said Saturday's convoy carried about 4% of an average day’s imports before the war and “a fraction of what is needed after 13 days of complete siege." The Israeli military said the humanitarian situation was “under control,” even as OCHA called for 100 trucks a day to enter. Israel repeated its calls for people to leave northern Gaza, including by dropping leaflets from the air. It estimated 700,000 already fled. But hundreds of thousands remain. That would raise the risk of mass civilian casualties in any ground offensive. Israeli military officials say Hamas’ infrastructure and underground tunnel system are concentrated in Gaza City, in the north, and that the next stage of the offensive will include unprecedented force there. Israel says it wants to crush Hamas. Officials have also spoken of carving out a buffer zone to keep Palestinians from approaching the border.
Hospitals packed with patients and displaced people are running low on medical supplies and fuel for generators, forcing doctors to perform surgeries with sewing needles, using vinegar as disinfectant, and without anesthesia.
The World Health Organization says at least 130 premature babies are at “grave risk” because of a shortage of generator fuel. It said seven hospitals in northern Gaza have been forced to shut down due to damage from strikes, lack of power and supplies, or Israeli evacuation orders. Shortages in critical supplies, including ventilators, are forcing doctors to ration treatment, said Dr. Mohammed Qandeel, who works in Khan Younis' Nasser Hospital. Dozens of patients continue to arrive and are treated in crowded, darkened corridors, as hospitals preserve electricity for intensive care units.
“It’s heartbreaking,” Qandeel said. “Every day, if we receive 10 severely injured patients we have to manage with maybe three or five ICU beds available.”
Palestinians sheltering in U.N.-run schools and tent camps are running low on food and drinking dirty water. A power blackout has crippled water and sanitation systems. OCHA said cases of chickenpox, scabies and diarrhea are on the rise because of the lack of clean water. Heavy airstrikes were reported across Gaza, including in the southern part of the coastal strip, where Israel has told civilians to seek refuge. At the Al-Aqsa hospital in Deir al-Balah, south of the evacuation line, several bodies wrapped in white shrouds were lined up outside on the ground.
Khalil al-Degran, a hospital official, said more than 90 bodies had been brought in since early Sunday, as the sound of nearby bombing echoed behind him. He said 180 wounded people had arrived, mostly children, women and the elderly who had been displaced from other areas. Airstrikes also smashed through the marketplace in the Nuseirat refugee camp. Witnesses said at least a dozen people were killed.
Israel’s military has said it is striking Hamas fighters and installations, but does not target civilians. Palestinian militants have fired over 7,000 rockets at Israel, according to the military, and Hamas says it targeted Tel Aviv early Sunday. More than 1,400 people in Israel have been killed — mostly civilians slain during the initial Hamas attack. At least 212 people were captured and dragged back to Gaza. Two Americans were released on Friday. More than 4,600 people have been killed in Gaza, according to the Hamas-run Health Ministry. That includes the disputed toll from a hospital explosion.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken told CBS’ “Face the Nation” that Hamas was responsible, not just for its brutal rampage in southern Israel, but for the deaths of civilians in Israel’s attacks on Gaza. “It knew that in Israel’s necessary response, civilians would be caught in that crossfire,” he said. He said the militants were operating among the civilian population and its tunnels were buried under hospitals and schools. “What does anyone expect Israel to do?” he said.
“This is on Hamas.”
Syrian state media, meanwhile reported that Israeli airstrikes hit the international airports in the capital, Damascus, and the northern city of Aleppo, killing one person and putting the runways out of service. Israel has carried out several strikes in Syria since the war began. Israel rarely acknowledges individual strikes, but says it acts to prevent Hezbollah and other militants from bringing in arms from Iran, which also supports Hamas. In Lebanon, Hezbollah said six fighters were killed Saturday, and the group’s deputy leader, Sheikh Naim Kassem, warned that Israel would pay a high price if it invades Gaza. Israel struck Hezbollah in response to rocket fire, the military said. Israel also announced evacuation plans for another 14 communities near the Lebanon border. In the Israeli-occupied West Bank, 93 Palestinians have been killed — including eight Sunday — in clashes with Israeli troops, arrest raids and attacks by Jewish settlers since the Hamas attacks, according to the Palestinian Health Ministry. Israeli forces have closed crossings into the territory and checkpoints between cities, measures they say are aimed at preventing attacks. Israel says it has arrested more than 700 Palestinians since Oct. 7, including 480 suspected Hamas members. Among the dead were two killed in an airstrike on a mosque in the town of Jenin, which has seen heavy gun battles over the past year. The Israeli military said the mosque compound belonged to Hamas and Islamic Jihad militants who had carried out several attacks in recent months and were planning another. The internationally recognized Palestinian Authority administers parts of the West Bank and cooperates with Israel on security, but it is deeply unpopular and has been the target of violent Palestinian protests.

Second aid convoy enters Egyptian side of Rafah crossing en route to Gaza, sources say
Reuters/October 22, 2023
UNRWA, the UN’s Palestinian refugee agency, the sources said. The first convoy of 20 trucks of badly needed supplies entered Gaza on Saturday. Israel imposed a total blockade and launched air strikes on Gaza in response to a deadly attack on Israeli soil by Hamas on Oct. 7. The Rafah crossing had been out of operation since shortly afterwards, and bombardments on the Gaza side had damaged roads and buildings. UN officials say a higher continuous pace of at least 100 trucks a day would be required in Gaza to cover urgent needs. Before the outbreak of the most recent conflict, several hundred trucks had been arriving in the enclave daily. UN humanitarian chief Martin Griffiths told Reuters on Saturday that work was underway to develop a “light” inspection system, whereby Israel could check the shipments but ensure a sustained flow.

Israel strikes Gaza, Syria and West Bank as war against Hamas threatens to ignite other fronts
AP/October 22, 2023
Israeli warplanes struck targets across Gaza overnight and into Sunday, as well as two airports in Syria and a mosque in the occupied West Bank, as the two-week-old war with Hamas threatened to spiral into a broader conflict.
Israel has traded fire with Lebanon's Hezbollah militant group on a near-daily basis since the war began, and tensions are soaring in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, where Israeli forces have battled militants in refugee camps and carried out two airstrikes in recent days.
For days, Israel has seemed to be on the verge of launching a ground offensive in Gaza as part of its response to Hamas' deadly Oct. 7 rampage. Tanks and tens of thousands of troops have massed at the border, and Israeli leaders have spoken of an undefined next stage in operations.
But the military acknowledges there are still hundreds of thousands of Palestinian civilians in northern Gaza despite a sweeping evacuation order, which would complicate any ground attack. And the risk of triggering a broader war with Hamas' allies in Lebanon and Syria might also give them pause.
Spiraling humanitarian crisis
On Sunday, Egyptian media report a convoy of 17 trucks bringing aid to Palestinians crosses into Gaza. This followed the 20 aid trucks that were allowed to enter on Saturday through the Rafah crossing, the first time anything has gone into the territory since Israel imposed a complete siege two weeks ago.
Aid workers said it was far too little to address the spiraling humanitarian crisis in Gaza, where half the territory's 2.3 million people have fled their homes. Hospitals packed with patients and displaced people are running low on medical supplies and fuel for generators, forcing doctors to perform surgeries with sewing needles, using kitchen vinegar as disinfectant, and without anesthesia. Palestinians sheltering in UN-run schools and tent camps are running low on food and drinking dirty water. The territory's sole power plant shut down over a week ago, causing a territory-wide blackout and crippling water and sanitation systems. The UN humanitarian agency said cases of chicken pox, scabies and diarrhea are on the rise because of the lack of clean water. Gaza’s Hamas-run Interior Ministry reported heavy Israeli airstrikes across the territory overnight into Sunday, including southern areas where Israel had told Palestinians to seek refuge. Late Saturday, an airstrike hit a cafe in the southern town of Khan Younis where displaced people had gathered to charge their phones. The nearby Nasser Hospital said 12 people were killed and 75 wounded. Israel’s military has said it is striking Hamas members and installations, but does not target civilians. Palestinian militants have continued daily rocket attacks, with Hamas saying it targeted Tel Aviv early Sunday. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu convened his Cabinet late Saturday to discuss the expected ground invasion, Israeli media reported. A military spokesman, Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari, said Israel planned to step up airstrikes starting Saturday as preparation for the “next stages of the war.”An Israeli ground assault would likely lead to a dramatic escalation in casualties on both sides. More than 1,400 people in Israel have been killed in the war — mostly civilians slain during the initial Hamas attack. At least 210 people were captured and dragged back to Gaza, including men, women, children and older adults. Two Americans were released on Friday in what Hamas said was a humanitarian gesture.
More than 4,300 people have been killed in Gaza, according to the Hamas-run Health Ministry. That includes the disputed toll from a hospital explosion.
Syrian state media meanwhile reported that Israeli airstrikes have targeted the international airports in the capital, Damascus, and the northern city of Aleppo. It said the strikes killed one person and damaged the runways, putting them out of service. Israel has carried out several strikes in Syria, including on the airports, since the war began. Israel rarely acknowledges individual strikes, but says it acts to prevent Hezbollah and other militant groups from bringing in arms from their patron, Iran, which also supports Hamas. In Lebanon, Hezbollah said six of its fighters were killed Saturday, and the group’s deputy leader, Sheikh Naim Kassem, warned that Israel would pay a high price if it starts a ground offensive in the Gaza Strip. Israel struck Hezbollah targets early Sunday in response to rocket fire, the military said. Israel also announced evacuation plans for another 14 communities near the border with Lebanon. Kiryat Shmona, with a population of more than 20,000 people, was told to evacuate last week. In the occupied West Bank, dozens of Palestinians have been killed in clashes with Israeli troops, arrest raids and attacks by Jewish settlers. Israeli forces have closed crossings into the territory and checkpoints between cities, measures they say are aimed at preventing attacks. Israel has arrested hundreds of Palestinians since Oct. 7, mainly suspected Hamas members. The internationally recognized Palestinian Authority administers parts of the West Bank and cooperates with Israel on security, but it is deeply unpopular and has been the target of violent Palestinian protests. Israeli forces killed at least five people early Sunday in the West Bank, according to the Palestinian Health Ministry. Two were killed in an airstrike on a mosque in the town of Jenin, which has seen heavy gunbattles between Palestinian militants and Israeli troops over the past year. The Israeli military said the mosque compound belonged to Hamas and Islamic Jihad militants who had carried out several attacks in recent months and were planning another one. Sunday’s fatalities brought the death toll in the West Bank to 90 Palestinians since the war broke out on Oct. 7, according to the Health Ministry. Most appear have been killed during fighting with Israeli forces or violent protests.
Thirteen Palestinians, including five minors, and a member of Israel's paramilitary Border Police were killed last week in a battle in a refugee camp in the West Bank town of Tulkarem, in which Israel also launched an airstrike. Inside Gaza, shellshocked residents said they were unsure where to go or how to protect  their families. “Even in my worst nightmares, I never thought this could be possible,” said Rami Abu Wazna, staring at the destruction in central Gaza’s Al-Zahra neighborhood. The scale of the bombing has left basic systems unable to function, with the UN reporting around 40 unidentified bodies were buried in a mass grave in Gaza City on Saturday because cold storage ran out before they could be identified.
Meanwhile, the Israeli military said the humanitarian situation was “under control” as aid workers called for the opening of a round-the-clock aid corridor.
The UN humanitarian agency, known as OCHA, said the convey that entered Saturday carried about 4% of an average day's imports before the war and “a fraction of what is needed after 13 days of complete siege.” It is calling for 100 trucks a day to enter. Huge quantities of aid have been gathered near the Egyptian side of the crossing, but there has been no word on when more might enter.
President Joe Biden said the US, which has worked with other mediators to reach an agreement on Rafah, “remains committed to ensuring that civilians in Gaza will continue to have access to food, water, medical care, and other assistance, without diversion by Hamas.”In a statement, he said the US would work to keep Rafah open and let US citizens leave Gaza. But hundreds of foreign passport holders who had gathered at the crossing on Saturday were unable to depart after the aid convoy entered. American citizen Dina al- Khatib said she and her family were desperate to get out. “It’s not like previous wars,” she said. “There is no electricity, no water, no internet, nothing.” AFP infographic based on data released on Oct. 18. Recent figures show the damage to housing at 40 percent. At a peace summit organized by Egypt, UN chief Antonio Guterres again pleaded for a humanitarian cease-fire “to end this godawful nightmare.”In a sign of international divisions however, the meeting was unable to agree any joint call, with Western officials demanding a clear condemnation of Hamas, and Arab attendees opting to issue their own statement criticizing world leaders.

Israel did not bomb that hospital, according to the latest intelligence. It's a reminder that in war, all sides engage in propaganda.
Charles R. Davis/Business Insider/October 22, 2023
Blame game follows Gaza hospital disasterScroll back up to restore default view.
Israel was blamed for bombing a hospital in Gaza. The media treated its denial with skepticism.
But it turned out it was not an Israeli airstrike as many assumed.
The incident serves as a reminder that, in war, all sides engage in propaganda.
If a tree falls in a forest, and no reporter is there to witness it, the first task for the seeker of truth is to establish: Did the tree even fall down at all?
On Tuesday, most international news outlets — and, by extension, most news consumers — were reasonably convinced that a hospital in Gaza had just been destroyed in an explosion, killing many of its patients.
Most were also reasonably convinced that Israel was responsible, its denials duly reported but with the knowledge that only one party to the conflict had the firepower and means to deliver such destruction, along with a record of targeting such facilities in the past.
"Israel's bombing of the Ahli Arab Hospital in Gaza killed 500 civilians," declared an emergency alert from Genocide Watch, a group that tracks ethnic cleansing and campaigns of mass murder (and which has accused Hamas and the Israeli government of engaging in both, to varying degrees). "The hospital bombing was a clear war crime."By Wednesday, what became clear was that, while narrowly accurate, the most truthful part of Tuesday's reporting was the attribution: that a hospital was destroyed and hundreds of people killed, according to Hamas, a terrorist organization that controls the Gaza Strip and its various ministries, including the one that reports the Palestinian death toll. The photos that emerged in daylight, of a hospital intact and a parking lot with a crater far too small to be from an Israeli airstrike, called into question everything that most reporters and their readers had taken for granted — and lent credence to the earlier, adamant denials from the Israel Defense Forces. A senior European intelligence official also said the actual death toll was likely between 10 and 50 people, while an initial US assessment placed the number at the "low end of the 100-to-300 spectrum."
There is good reason not to trust the IDF. Last year, in just one example, the Israeli military killed an American journalist, Shireen Abu Akleh, who was reporting outside the Jenin refugee camp in the West Bank, initially claiming she was surrounded by armed militants and potentially killed by Palestinian gunmen. But video and eyewitness testimony contradicted both claims. Evidence suggested that Israeli troops were the ones who opened fire and that they deliberately targeted the journalists.
What also emerged on Thursday, however, was a possibility that some could not process: One, that the IDF was telling the truth, this time, when it blamed the explosion near the Ahli Arab Hospital on a misfired rocket from Islamic Jihad; and two, that the international media had actually challenged the assertions of Israel, a Western ally, and in this case deferred to the claims of Hamas authorities in Gaza.
"Just imagine the headlines if Putin had bombed a hospital in Kharkiv, killing 500 people, many of them kids, and then blamed it on the Ukrainians," Yanis Vaourfakis, a leftist economist and Greek politician, posted on social media. "Nothing makes Vlad happier than watching the West's touching attempts to overtake his callous cynicism."Russia has bombed hospitals in Ukraine, as well as Syria, and its denials have been viewed as dubious for a simple reason: If something falls from the sky and explodes, it is generally right to suspect the party with air supremacy. And that is what happened Tuesday, Israeli claims treated with a similar, earned skepticism — even before the bombing of a hospital was an established fact.
The knee-jerk response also went the other way. Before the IDF issued a denial, Hananya Naftali, a right-wing Israeli influencer, assumed Israel was responsible — and immediately attempted to justify it: A "Hamas terrorist based inside a hospital" had been attacked, he posted on social media, killing a "number of terrorists." In this, he was indeed no different than commentators who have excused Russia's atrocities: projecting absolute certainty that whatever happened, despite the little we know, was for a damn good reason. Many, then, were embarrassed by what is objectively good albeit startling news: that a hospital in Gaza, reported as leveled, was still standing — and not bombed by the IDF at all. That's a conclusion backed by US intelligence and supported by independent analysts, including a former UN war crimes investigator and researchers at Bellingcat, who noted that the damage seen in photographs shared the next morning was not consistent with the area being struck in an Israeli airstrike. A French intelligence assessment, made public Friday, also rejected claims of "an Israeli strike," saying there was "nothing to indicate" the hospital was hit by the IDF this week. "The most probable hypothesis is that a Palestinian rocket exploded with a charge of about five kilos," it said. The Associated Press, too, concluded — after an analysis of video and input from "experts with specialties in open-source intelligence, geolocation and rocketry" — that the most likely cause of the blast near the hospital was a misfired rocket, not an Israeli strike.
Members of the media (and others) have lessons to learn here.
First, the fog of war, paired with social media, is a recipe for inaccuracy. We should all slow down and be more inclined to let the fog lift before broadcasting an unverified claim. While some may see this week's reporting as the product of an anti-Israel bias, the truth is likely more mundane: No news outlet wants to be the last one to cover the most important story of the day. Second, while the IDF's statements should continue to be viewed with healthy skepticism, the official sources in Gaza clearly warrant at least as much scrutiny, controlled as they are by a designated terrorist organization. Hamas has an incentive to blame anything bad that happens in Gaza on the Israeli state and has shown itself willing to fabricate a war crime — claiming a hospital found standing on Wednesday was destroyed the night before. If it wasn't absolutely clear before, it is today: The local health ministry, which rushed out a now seemingly implausible body count, answers to this extremist group. Acknowledging this is not to deny that Palestinians are suffering under Israeli bombardment. People on the ground, with no connection to Hamas, can attest to this, and the IDF would only dispute who is ultimately to blame. That points to the last lesson from all this for partisans of either side and other news consumers: What happens in war will not always reaffirm our prior convictions. Assumptions should always be questioned, and truths acknowledged — convenient or not.

Canada has 'high degree of confidence' Israel didn't strike hospital in Gaza: Blair
The Canadian Press/October 22/ 2023
OTTAWA — Defence Minister Bill Blair says that after an independent review by the Canadian military, Ottawa has a "high degree of confidence" that Israel did not strike the al-Ahli Hospital in Gaza City on Tuesday. A statement from Blair says Canada believes the more likely scenario is that the strike was caused by an errant rocket fired from Hamas-controlled Gaza. The pronouncement from Ottawa comes days after the United States said its own review found that Israel was not responsible, with President Joe Biden saying during a visit to Israel that he was confident the "other team" bore responsibility.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said on Thursday that his government was taking "all necessary steps" to form its own understanding of what happened. The hospital blast on Oct. 17, which the Gaza Health Ministry said killed hundreds of people, quickly became a flashpoint in the war. Hamas, which Canada designates as a terrorist group, quickly blamed an Israeli military airstrike for the explosion, but Israel subsequently released images that it said proved it was caused by a misfire from Gaza.

Israel welcomes Canada's conclusion that Israel didn't strike hospital in Gaza
The Canadian Press/Sunday, October 22, 2023
Israel is "pleased" that Canada has joined the United States and France in believing that an explosion at a Gaza City hospital last week was fired by an errant rocket from within the Gaza Strip, the Israeli ambassador in Ottawa said Sunday. “The loss of life at the al-Ahli Arab hospital was a tragedy that should horrify any human being and it is a reminder of the double war crimes against Palestinians and Israelis that are committed by Hamas and other terrorist groups in Gaza,” Iddo Moed said in a statement. The rocket fired at the hospital Oct. 17 became a new flashpoint in the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas as both sides blamed each other for the tragedy. Canadian Defence Minister Bill Blair issued a statement late Saturday night saying an independent analysis by the Canadian Forces gives the government a "high degree of confidence" that the rocket did not come from Israel. Canada was slower than some of its allies to reach that conclusion. During a visit to Tel Aviv on Oct. 18, US. President Joe Biden said American defence intelligence showed the rocket came from within Gaza, and France said its military had reached the same conclusion on Oct. 20. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau asked Blair on Oct. 17 to have the Canadian military conduct its own assessment. On Oct. 19 he said Canada had seen some "preliminary evidence" but would take the "necessary time to look carefully" and work with allies to reach a firm conclusion. The Canadian military assessment delivered its first report Saturday, and Blair and Trudeau were both briefed on the findings before Blair made the conclusion public just before 10 p.m. Canada has not yet assigned specific blame for the source of the rocket. Moed said he believes further analysis from Canada will also conclude the rocket was fired by the Palestinian Islamic Jihad. The PIJ is the second-largest armed group in Gaza, whose sole objective is a military victory over Israel to establish an Islamic State across all of Israel, along with the West Bank and Gaza. Israel blames the PIJ for the rocket, and American officials told the New York Times their preliminary evidence also pointed to the PIJ. “As Canada provides further updates, Israel is assured that other findings uncovered by the Israeli Defense Forces, including the culpability of Palestinian Islamic Jihad, will be identified by Canada as the source of this war crime," Moed said. The latest escalation of violence between Israel and Gaza erupted on Oct. 7 when Hamas militants, who control the Gaza Strip, launched a multi-pronged attack on Israel from the air and the ground. At least 1,400 Israelis were killed and more than 200 people — including children — were taken hostage by Hamas, which Canada has designated as a terrorist organization since 2002. Israel responded with force, cutting off power and supplies to the two million people who live in the Gaza Strip and launching its own rocket attacks into the area. The humanitarian situation in Gaza deteriorated quickly and Canada was among the countries who backed Israel's right to defend itself while calling for Israel and Egypt, which controls access to Gaza from the south, to allow in aid.
Both Israel and Egypt have imposed a blockade on Gaza since Hamas took control of the small strip of land in 2007. The Palestinian death toll is now estimated to be over 4,600 people. Aid began moving slowly into Gaza from Egypt Saturday including fuel, food and medical supplies. That same day, Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly announced an additional $50 million in funding for humanitarian assistance in the Gaza Strip and reiterated Canada's request for aid to be allowed into the territory. Joly and International Development Minister Ahmed Hussen are also in Cairo this weekend for what is being billed as a peace summit. The ministers were expected to discuss efforts to help some 400 Canadians leave Gaza. The Canadian government has helped 33 people out of the West Bank and nearly 1,600 people out of Israel since the conflict began, with a final military evacuation flight expected out of Tel Aviv on Monday.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 22, 2023.

Civilians in Gaza are terrorist sympathisers, warns Israeli military
Ben Farmer/The Telegraph/October 22, 2023
Israel warned civilians in Gaza they could be seen as terrorist sympathisers if they do not move south ahead of an expected invasion. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) repeated orders to evacuate the northern part of the Hamas-controlled coastal enclave, ahead of an expected ground offensive likely to bring heavy urban fighting and casualties. The United Nations meanwhile warned that some 120 newborn babies were in danger in the blockaded Gaza Strip as the fuel needed to power hospital incubators ran out. Leaflets dropped by air in the 25-mile long territory repeated calls for residents to move south of the Wadi Gaza, but used stronger language than earlier warnings. Those who did not move “could be considered or identified as a partner in a terrorist organization,” the leaflets said. It came as an Israeli soldier was killed by an anti-tank missile on Sunday during a raid into the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip, the country’s military said. Israeli troops have been conducting raids across the border, which the military says are meant to clear the area and gather intelligence about missing people and captives being held by Hamas in the enclave. “An IDF (Israel Defense Forces) soldier was killed, one was moderately injured, and two were lightly injured as a result of an anti-tank missile launched toward an IDF tank and an engineering vehicle,” the military said.
Israel has vowed to wipe out Hamas and create a “new security reality” in the enclave, after gunmen stormed border communities a fortnight ago and killed 1,400 people.
Troops have been put on alert for a ground offensive soon, which is predicted to see heavy casualties on both sides, and among remaining civilians. Israeli air and artillery strikes since the Oct 7 attacks have already destroyed large numbers of homes in the Strip and killed some 4,650 Palestinians, the local health ministry said. The evacuation zone is thought to be home to around a million people. Israel has estimated some 700,000 have left, meaning hundreds of thousands still remain. Those still in the north of the Strip said the scale of Israel’s heavy bombardment had made it difficult to leave for civilians and those being treated in hospitals. Doctors inside the Strip and Unicef, the UN agency for the welfare of children, warned that a dangerous shortage of fuel to run hospital generators was endangering the lives of newly born and premature babies. Jonathan Crick, Unicef spokesman, said: “We have currently 120 neonates who are in incubators, out of which we have 70 neonates with mechanical ventilation, and of course this is where we are extremely concerned.”He said: “If they [babies] are put in mechanical ventilation incubators, by definition, if you cut the electricity, we are worried about their lives.”Dr Medhat Abbas, director general at the ministry of health in Gaza, told the Telegraph there were 130 premature babies spread across different hospitals. He said: “Without power, the babies will be the first to die, followed by 1,000 kidney patients who need dialysis three times a week. “Fuel and power will keep these babies healthy and we won’t need to evacuate them. They need to stay where they are.” Around 160 women give birth each day in Gaza, according to the UN Population Fund, which estimates there are 50,000 pregnant women across the territory of 2.4 million people. Gaza has six neonatal units, including one at the large Al-Shifa hospital, which has been overwhelmed with casualties since the Israeli campaign began.
The hospital’s wards and corridors have overflowed with the wounded in the past fortnight according to doctors, leaving the territory’s main health centre at breaking point. Staff have said they are, at times, receiving hundreds of injured people each hour and corpses in body bags are lined up outside the hospital’s mortuary. Thousands of people have sought shelter at the site, hoping it will be protected from strikes. Israel has, for years, accused Hamas of using the hospital as a base. Ehud Barak, former Israeli prime minister, last week alleged to the BBC that Hamas had buried a command post under the hospital.
Hamas has in the past told residents to ignore Israeli evacuation orders and “remain steadfast in your homes”. Israel has long accused the group of using Gaza’s civilians as human shields, by forcing people to stay at home in the path of IDF activity, operating and firing from houses, and by setting up bases in public institutions like hospitals. After the latest evacuation warning, the IDF said it had “no intention to consider those who have not evacuated... as a member of the terrorist group”. The order by Israel for civilians to move south has already triggered a mass exodus, but damage to infrastructure has also heightened risks. The danger of being hit by an air strike in Gaza led drivers to hike prices for the journey beyond many people’s reach. Drivers were now charging between £165 ($200) and £250 to take a family south, one resident told the New York Times. Before the war, the same trip cost about £2.50 per person. “We can’t even afford to eat,” Amani Abu Odeh, who lives in the town of Jabalia in Gaza’s north, told the newspaper. “We don’t have the money to leave.”
Israeli commanders are predicting heavy casualties when they storm Gaza, given Hamas has had years to build defences and plan to resist an assault. More than 350,000 reservists have been mobilised in Israel and tanks and troops are building up near the fenced border.
Lt Col Jonathan Conricus, an IDF spokesman, said Israeli strategy was “to have a weakened, tired and dislocated Hamas in preparation for our next stage of military operations”. He went on: “Our working assumption is that Hamas has prepared the battlefield, that there are various dimensions of warfare ready for us – specifically tunnels – and that Hamas, at least in the first and the intermediate stages, will fight and will inflict heavy casualties on [Israeli forces]”. The White House has been pressing Israel to delay a ground invasion to give negotiators more time to win the release of more than 200 hostages seized by Hamas during the attacks. The release late last week of an American mother and her teenage daughter after mediation by Qatar has raised the prospect of other releases. “The [administration] pressed Israeli leadership to delay because of progress on the hostage front,” and the need to get trucks of aid into Gaza, one person familiar with the discussions told CNN.
Meanwhile, a second convoy of aid lorries crossed into Gaza via the Rafah border point with Egypt on Sunday. The 17 vehicles that crossed, following 20 the day before, were only a tiny fraction of what is needed, aid agencies said. The UN’s own aid agency for Palestinian refugees was due to run out of fuel within three days unless the siege was eased, it said. Already, 29 of its staff have been killed in the past fortnight. A statement said: “Without fuel, there will be no water, no functioning hospitals and bakeries. Without fuel, aid will not reach those in desperate need. Without fuel, there will be no humanitarian assistance. “No fuel will further strangle the children, women and people of Gaza.” The UN estimates Gaza needs around 100 fully-laden lorries of aid each day, given the “catastrophic” humanitarian situation. Israel imposed a “total siege” on Gaza after the Hamas attacks and said it would not allow the transfer of supplies from its territory until hostages seized in the assault had been freed. Joe Biden last week persuaded Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, to instead let some supplies in via Egypt, but warned they would be halted if Hamas tried to seize the aid. The UN’s humanitarian office said the volume of aid entering so far was just less than a twentieth of the daily average before the hostilities. Deprived of electricity and water, those in the southern town of Khan Younis said they were struggling to feed their children.
“We are suffering extremely, waiting since dawn to get bread. If this continues for two more days it will be catastrophic,” said Saleh Skafi, a father of four from north Gaza now sheltering in Khan Younis. On Sunday, Israel’s defence minister said that the war against Hamas could take “months” but insisted it would be the last against the terrorist group. “It will take one month, two months, three months, and at the end there will be no more Hamas,” Yoav Gallant said during a visit to an air force base. “Before Hamas makes contact with our tanks and our infantry, they will know the shells from our air force.”
He added that Israeli forces “know how to make this precise, qualitative and mortal”. “This should be the last war in Gaza, for the simple reason that there will be no more Hamas,” Mr Gallant said.

Death toll in Palestine rises to 4,651 with nearly 2,000 Palestinian children dead
Adam Schrader/United Press International/October 22, 2023
Israeli Defense Forces have so far killed at least 4,651 Palestinians and wounded more than 14,245 in retaliation for the attack by Hamas that killed about 1,400 Israelis earlier this month. The Palestinian Health Ministry said in a statement that the dead include 1,871 children, 1,023 women and 187 elderly people. Most of the deaths are in Palestine's Gaza, home to Hamas, though dozens have also been reported dead in Palestine's West Bank. In addition, data provided by the United Nations shows that Israel forces killed 227 Palestinians this year before Hamas offensive while just 29 Israelis had been slain by Palestinian attackers before the attack. Hamas has said the attack was made in retaliation for Israel's multiple raids on the Al-Aqsa Mosque earlier this year as Israelis continue to make illegal settlements on Palestinian lands in violation of international law. The Palestine Red Crescent Society, an aid group based in Ramallah, said in a statement that seven hospitals and 21 other health centers in the country are out of service after being targeted by the Israeli military. Israel has denied that it is attacking hospitals in Palestine, claiming they are the result of "failed rocket launches" by groups including Hamas and Islamic Jihad. According to CNN, some Palestinians in Gaza are taking to writing the names of their children on their legs to help identify them if they are killed. Meanwhile, the IDF has admitted to attacking the Al-Ansar Mosque in Jenin, claiming that the holy center was used a "execute terrorist attacks against civilians." Photos from Gaza show entire communities demolished by Israel's ongoing blitz.

US to send more air defense systems to Mideast, ups troop preparedness
Associated Press/October 22, 2023
U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin announced late Saturday he was sending additional air defense systems to the Middle East as well as putting more troops on prepare-to-deploy orders. Austin said the U.S. would be delivering a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, or THAAD, battery along with additional Patriot missile defense system batteries “to locations throughout the region to increase force protection for U.S. troops.” Bases in Iraq and Syria have been repeatedly targeted by drones in the days since hundreds were killed in a hospital blast in Gaza, and the destroyer USS Carney intercepted land attack cruise missiles in the Red Sea shot from Yemen on Thursday. Austin said he had also placed additional forces on prepare-to-deploy orders, “part of prudent contingency planning” as the U.S. and others brace for the potential of a wider regional conflict and as Israel prepares to launch a ground assault into Gaza. He said he gave the orders after detailed discussions with President Joe Biden on the recent escalations by Iran and its proxy forces across the region.

Qatar says mediation will lead to Hamas hostage releases 'very soon'
Agence France Presse/October 22, 2023
Qatar, a key power in the efforts to release hostages seized by Hamas from Israel, believes they can be released "very soon" thanks to ongoing discussions, a Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesman told the German Welt am Sonntag newspaper. Doha's mediation played a key role in the release on Friday evening of two American hostages who had been held since the Palestinian militant group's attack against Israel on October 7, with the Gulf state adding that it was in talks with Israel and Hamas. "I can't promise you this will happen today or tomorrow or after tomorrow. But we are taking a path that will very soon lead to release of the hostages, especially civilians," Majed Al-Ansari said. "We are currently working on an agreement under which all civilian hostages will be initially released," he added. Israel says 203 people -- Israelis, dual nationals and foreigners -- were abducted by Hamas gunmen when they launched the deadliest attacks in Israel's 75-year history. At least 1,400 people were allegedly killed, mostly civilians, according to the Israeli government. Israel has responded with a relentless bombing campaign against the Gaza Strip that has left at least 4,385 people dead, mostly civilians, according to the Hamas administration. Al-Ansari said that the release of the two American nationals "proved to us and our partners that the efforts made in the past days are feasible and must continue."The two women had been kidnapped by Hamas while visiting the Nahal Oz kibbutz in southern Israel and were the first hostage releases confirmed by both parties.

US-led troops in Iraq reportedly targeted by suicide drone
Agence France Presse/October 22, 2023
A suicide drone hit an airbase in Iraq hosting US troops, Iraqi security sources said, but the Pentagon said it could not confirm that such an attack took place. Armed factions close to Iran have threatened to attack U.S. interests in Iraq over Washington's support for Israel since Hamas militants allegedly killed more than 1,400 Israelis in a shock cross-border attack from Gaza on October 7. Israel's retaliatory bombardment of Gaza has killed more than 4,300 people, according to its Hamas-controlled health ministry. "The drone came down inside the (Ain al-Assad) base" in the western province of Anbar, without causing any casualties or damage, a military source told AFP on condition of anonymity. A statement issued on Telegram channels used by pro-Iranian armed groups said the attack was carried out by a group calling itself the Islamic Resistance in Iraq. A second Iraqi security source told AFP the attack had involved two suicide drones. "The first was intercepted and the second crashed because of a technical problem," the source said. The Pentagon, however, said it was unaware of any such attack. "We have not seen any operational reporting confirming" that an attack occurred Saturday, a U.S. Defense Department official said on condition of anonymity. Since Wednesday, three Iraqi bases used by U.S.-led coalition troops have been targeted in five separate attacks -- Ain al-Assad, the Al-Harir base in northern Iraq and a military camp near Baghdad airport. The United States currently has about 2,500 troops stationed at the three bases, alongside around 1,000 soldiers from other countries in the coalition set up to fight the Islamic State jihadist group. The attacks came after factions loyal to Iran stepped up threats against the United States. One of them, the Hezbollah Brigades, demanded that U.S. forces "leave" Iraq, "otherwise they will taste the fires of hell."

Israel is now fighting on 3 fronts as airstrikes and violence escalate across the Palestinian territories, Lebanon, and Syria
Rebecca Rommen/Business Insider/October 22, 2023
Israel bombards Lebanon and Gaza in retaliatory attackScroll back up to restore default view. Israel is now waging war on three fronts — the Palestinian territories, Lebanon, and Syria. As the conflict spreads, the US is beefing up its military presence in the region. US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said it was in response to "recent escalations by Iran and its proxy forces." Following the Palestinian militant group Hamas' attacks on Israel on October 7, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared war on the group. Now, that conflict is spilling over into the neighboring countries of Lebanon and Syria as Israel ramps up airstrikes on the two Arab states. The US has sent more military assets to the region to bolster Israel's forces following what US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin called "recent escalations by Iran and its proxy forces." Hezbollah, a militant group backed by Iran, has been fighting Israeli forces on Lebanon's northern border with Israel. The day after Israel declared war, Hezbollah launched dozens of rockets on Israeli positions to support "Palestinian resistance."Israel also targeted Damascus and Aleppo international airports in Syria, where Iran maintains a military presence. The strikes reportedly killed two workers. Austin told ABC News' "This Week" program: "We're concerned about potential escalation. In fact, what we're seeing ... is a prospect of a significant escalation of attacks on our troops and our people throughout the region. And because of that, we're going to do what's necessary to make sure that our troops are ... in a good position, and they're protected, and that we have the ability to respond." Washington will also send more troops and a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system and additional Patriot air defense missile system battalions to Israel, Austin also said, per Reuters. Israel has been amassing troops and equipment near the border with Gaza ahead of its expected ground invasion of the territory. Chief of the Israeli General Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi told troops: "We are going to go into the Gaza Strip ... to destroy Hamas operatives and Hamas infrastructure." The Palestinian death toll in Gaza has exceeded 4,300 after Israel laid a "total siege" on the strip, the Hamas-run Health Ministry said, The Associated Press reported. Violence has also escalated in the West Bank, with over 90 Palestinians reported to have been killed in the area since the start of the war.

Israel warns Gaza airstrikes will intensify and hits West Bank ahead of war’s ‘next stage’
CNN/October 22, 2023
Israel’s military said it would increase its aerial bombardment of Gaza, and carried out a rare airstrike in the occupied West Bank, as it signaled it was readying for a new phase of war against Hamas. As the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) prepares for a potential ground operation, it has amassed huge numbers of troops outside Gaza and pounded the densely populated enclave with near-constant airstrikes since Hamas’ deadly October 7 attack on Israel. “We will increase our strikes, minimize the risk to our troops in the next stages of the war, and we will intensify the strikes, starting from today,” Daniel Hagari, an IDF spokesman, said Saturday. “We continue to destroy terror targets ahead of the next stage of the war, and are focusing on our readiness to the next stage.”The Biden administration has pressed Israel to delay its imminent invasion of Gaza to allow for the release of more Hamas hostages and aid into Gaza, according to two sources briefed on the discussions. The Friday release of two Americans held by Hamas signaled the possible freeing of more of the around 200 believed to be kidnapped by the militant group after its deadly attacks two week ago. Violence has also flared in the occupied West Bank. The IDF on Sunday launched an airstrike on the Al-Ansar mosque in the West Bank refugee camp of Jenin, which it said was being used by militant groups to plan for “an imminent terror attack.” It would not say whether the strike came from a jet, in what would be the first fighter jet strike in the West Bank in nearly two decades. Lt. Col. Jonathan Conricus, and IDF spokesman, told CNN that the military had intelligence that “suggested there was an imminent attack coming from a joint Hamas and Islamic Jihad squad,” which was making preparations from an underground command center beneath the mosque. Three people were killed in the Israeli strike, the Palestinian Ministry of Health said in a statement on Sunday. Two people were also killed following clashes in the West Bank cities of Toubas and Nablus, it said. Since the war erupted, Israel authorities have placed additional restrictions on movement of Palestinians living in the West Bank, and attacks by Israeli forces and settlers have surged. At least 90 people have been killed in the occupied Palestinian territory since October 7, according to the Palestinian Ministry of Health.
Ground incursion looms
In Gaza City, the IDF dropped leaflets written in Arabic that warned residents to evacuate to the south or face the possibility of being considered “a partner for the terrorist organization,” according to a CNN translation. In a statement, the IDF confirmed it had dropped the flyers, but said there was “no intention to consider those who have not evacuated from the affected area of fighting as a member of the terrorist group.” The IDF “treats civilians as such, and does not target them,” the statement added. Israeli war planes have been pounding Gaza, leveling entire neighborhoods, including schools and mosques. Israel says it strikes Hamas targets and that the group has used civilians as human shields. As of Sunday, Israeli airstrikes have killed 4,651 people in Gaza, including hundreds of women and children, according to the Palestinian Ministry of Health in Gaza. More than 14,245 people have been wounded, it added.
In northern Gaza, more than 1 million residents have been told by Israel to leave their homes and move to the south. Israel has also ordered the evacuation of more than 20 hospitals in northern Gaza where thousands of patients are being treated, according to the United Nations and the Palestinian Red Crescent, which say the order could be tantamount to a death sentence. “We do not have the means to evacuate them safely. Most of the patients are with critical injuries,” Nebal Farsakh, a Red Crescent spokesperson, told CNN Sunday, adding that the hospitals are under the threat of “being bombed at any second due to Israeli evacuation orders.” The organization said on Friday that the Israeli military issued three evacuation orders for the Al-Quds Hospital. The IDF has said it does not target hospitals, though the UN and Doctors Without Borders say Israeli airstrikes have hit medical facilities, including hospitals and ambulances.
Israel has offered no timeline for the possible ground offensive on Gaza, but military officials have repeatedly told troops an incursion is imminent. The Israeli Military Chief of Staff, Herzl Halevi, told IDF commanders Saturday that the military will initiate an operation to “destroy” Hamas. “We’ll enter the Gaza Strip. We’ll embark on an operational and professional task to destroy Hamas operatives and infrastructures,” the chief said in comments to the Golani Brigade of the IDF. The United States and its allies have urged Israel to be strategic and clear about its goals during any ground invasion of Gaza, warning against a prolonged occupation and placing a particular emphasis on avoiding civilian casualties. During his visit to Israel last week, US President Joe Biden “asked some hard questions” about Israel’s ground invasion strategy, a senior US official told CNN, adding: “we’re not directing the Israelis, the timeline is theirs – their thinking, their planning.” Meanwhile, the US military is sending more missile defense systems to the Middle East and placing additional US troops on prepare-to-deploy orders in response to escalations throughout the region in recent days. US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said Saturday he had “activated the deployment of a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery as well as additional Patriot battalions to locations throughout the region to increase force protection for US forces.” The order for troops to prepare for deployment is meant “to increase their readiness and ability to quickly respond as required,” he said. Both the THAAD and Patriots systems are air defense systems designed to shoot down short, medium and intermediate ballistic missiles.
‘Catastrophic’ humanitarian situation
Conditions in Gaza have become increasingly dire following two weeks of bombardment and a complete siege by Israel, which was unleashed in response to a rampage by Hamas that killed more than 1,400 people in Israel. Hamas fighters have also abducted about 210 people into Gaza as hostages, according to an estimate released Saturday by the IDF. Two American hostages, a mother and her 17-year-old daughter, were released Friday. CNN has seen 15 humanitarian aid trucks enter the border from Egypt to Gaza through the Rafah crossing on Sunday, a day after the first convoy of 20 trucks carrying food, water, medicine and medical supplies was allowed through following intense diplomatic efforts. The trucks will go through additional security checks before entry into the strip, a security official told CNN. The Egyptian Red Crescent said 17 aid trucks were preparing to enter the strip through the Rafah crossing on Sunday. “God willing, I am now entering the crossing, or in a few minutes. God willing, to deliver this aid and will go in and out safely, God willing,” Ali Shousha, one of the drivers waiting to cross into Gaza, told CNN. But aid workers and international leaders have warned that much more is needed to combat the “catastrophic” humanitarian situation in the enclave that is home to more than 2 million people. WHO director general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus has stressed that “the needs are far higher” than the aid people in Gaza have received. The Ministry of Health in Gaza said the initial aid convoy constituted “only 3% of the daily health and humanitarian needs that used to enter the Gaza Strip before the aggression.”  From Ramallah, in the occupied West Bank, head of the Palestinian National Initiative Mustafa Barghouti said Gaza needs “7,000 trucks of immediate aid,” adding, “20 trucks will not really change much.”None of those 20 trucks brought fuel to the enclave, raising concerns as it is needed to run hospitals and to desalinate or treat water, according to aid agencies. One UN official warned on Sunday that the UN’s fuel supply in Gaza will run out in three days. “Without fuel, there will be no water, no functioning hospitals and bakeries,” Philippe Lazzarini, commissioner general for the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA), said. “Without fuel, aid will not reach many civilians in desperate need.”Citing an acute shortage of food, water, power, and medical supplies that is pushing civilian lives in Gaza “to the edge of catastrophe,” the UN’s World Food Programme (WFP) said it urgently requires $74 million to sustain its emergency response in Gaza for the next 90 days. The appeal came in a Palestinian Territories situation report Saturday that said the coastal enclave’s stores have food reserves of less than a week and that the ability to replenish these stocks is “compromised by damaged roads, safety concerns, and fuel shortages.” Three WFP trucks were part of the convoy of that moved through the Rafah crossing into Gaza on Saturday. Another 40 WFP trucks are waiting at Al-Arish, Egypt, to enter Gaza, the report said.
Wider conflict
As it prepares for the next stage of war, the Israeli military has warned other regional actors against getting involved in the conflict. Conricus, the IDF spokesperson, said Sunday the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah is “playing a very dangerous game” that could drag Lebanon “into a war that it will gain nothing from.” Conricus said Hezbollah has been attacking Israeli positions near the Lebanon border, which had led to both civilian and military casualties. In response, the IDF has used tanks, drones, artillery, and infantry to strike various Hezbollah infrastructure, as well as Hezbollah squads manning anti-tank missiles, he added. On Sunday, Israel’s Ministry of Defense and the IDF announced the expansion of a state-funded evacuation plan to 14 additional communities in northern areas near the border with Lebanon. The evacuation, which is voluntary, was initially rolled out on Monday for 28 communities. Around 123,000 civilians had been evacuated from their homes in northern and southern Israel as of Friday. Meanwhile, Syrian state news agency, citing an unnamed military source, reported that Israel had targeted airports in the capital Damascus and the northern city of Aleppo at around 5:25 a.m. on Sunday morning, damaging runways and putting both out of service. The agency reported that one worker at Damascus airport was killed and another injured, and all air traffic was being diverted to the city of Latakia.

US upping Mid East presence due to risk of attacks on American troops, Austin says
Lauren Sforza/The Hill/October 22, 2023
Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said Sunday that the United States is upping its presence in the Middle East because of the risk of escalated attacks on American troops. “What we’re seeing is a prospect of a significant escalation of attacks on our troops and our people throughout the region,” Austin said on ABC’s “This Week.” “And because of that, we’re going to do what’s necessary to make sure that our troops are in that position and they were protected and that we have the ability to respond.”He also said that upping the military presence in the region will “send another message to those who would who would seek to widen this conflict.” In response to potential attacks from Hezbollah in Lebanon and from Iran, the administration has told any other groups seeking to get involved “don’t.”“If any group or any country is looking to widen this conflict and take advantage of this very unfortunate situation that we see. Our advice is don’t,” he said. “We maintain the right to defend ourselves and we won’t hesitate to take the appropriate action.”The United States announced plans to ramp up its military presence in the Middle East as an act of deterrence amid the ongoing fighting between Israel and the militant group Hamas on Saturday. Austin said in the announcement that he redirected the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower Strike Group to join the USS Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group, which is currently stationed in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea. He said in the Saturday announcement that the U.S. will deploy the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense battery in addition to Patriot battalions that will “increase force protection for U.S. forces.” He also said that he ordered more troops to prepare for deployment orders. The U.S. has vowed to back Israel in its war against militant group Hamas, which launched an unprecedented, deadly attack on Israel on Oct. 7 that prompted Israel to declare war on the group and launch a series of airstrikes targeting the group’s hotspots. The U.S. has designated Hamas as a terrorist organization.

Iran warns Mideast could 'go out of control' as Israel steps up attacks: Live updates
John Bacon, USA TODAY/October 22, 2023
The Israeli military ramped up its reach Sunday, striking targets in Syria, the West Bank and Gaza amid growing concerns the war will spread more widely across the Middle East. Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian warned Israel and the U.S on Sunday that "if they do not immediately stop the crime against humanity and genocide in Gaza, anything is possible at any moment and the region will go out of control." The intensified military actions came as a convoy of humanitarian aid trucks that was scheduled to make its way into Gaza from Egypt for a second day Sunday never arrived, a U.N. aid agency said. The U.N. warned the aid that got through on Saturday was only about 4% of the daily average of imports into previous conflicts and a fraction of what is needed. Israel has been pounding Gaza relentlessly since Hamas' stunning, brutal attack Oct. 7 that killed more than 1,000 Israelis and saw the seizure of more than 200 hostages. "Bombardments continue almost unabated as hostilities enter the 15th day in Gaza," the U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs said in its latest situation report. First humanitarian aid reaches Gaza: Convoy arrives after 2 weeks of Israel-Hamas war
Developments:
∎ Thousands of pregnant women in the Gaza Strip who could give birth within weeks are in grave danger because they are not able to reach a medical facility to deliver, Doctors Without Borders warned. ∎ Hezbollah’s deputy leader in Lebanon, Sheikh Naim Kassem, warned that Israel would pay a high price going forward if it commences a much-anticipated ground offensive in Gaza. Reports that the Rafah crossing from Egypt, which opened Saturday with the passage of 20 aid trucks, saw 17 more trucks enter Gaza on Sunday are incorrect, the U.N. humanitarian affairs agency said.
“Until now, there is no convoy,” said Juliette Touma, spokeswoman for U.N. agency for Palestinian refugees. The agency also said it is "imperative" to increase the number to at least 100 trucks carrying food, water and medical supplies per day. An Israeli blockade of Gaza has cut off food, water, medicine and electricity since the war began.
Hamas field manual gave instructions to 'shock troops'
A Hamas field manual and other documents found in the days following the Oct. 7 attack reveal military strength of the group and provided how-to instructions on techniques such as close-in, bloody killing, the Washington Post says. The Post said it obtained the field manual, which was found on the body of a Hamas fighter and lists instructions on operating weapons and identifies weaknesses in Israeli military equipment. It also provides instructions for “shock troops” on the best places to stab victims. The “neck in the collarbone area,” “spine” and “underarms” are on that list, the Post says.
Israeli strikes shut down Syrian airports
Syria said it was forced to shut down international airports in Damascus and Aleppo because of the Israeli strike. The Syrian Transport Ministry said landing strips at both airports were damaged by missiles and one civilian worker was killed and another wounded at Damascus International Airport. Israel has carried out several strikes in Syria since the war began, citing the need to prevent Hezbollah and other militant groups from bringing in arms from Iran, which also supports Hamas. In the Israeli-occupied West Bank, Israeli forces killed at least five people there early Sunday, according to the local Health Ministry. Two were killed in an airstrike on a mosque in the town of Jenin, which the Israeli military said belonged to Hamas and Islamic Jihad militants who had carried out several attacks and were planning another one. Palestinian militants have fired over 7,000 rockets into Israel since the war began, the Israel Defense Force says, and tens of thousands of Israeli's have been forced to flee their homes. Hamas says it targeted Tel Aviv early Sunday.
Housing situation dire in Gaza
The Israeli death toll has surpassed 1,400, most of the civilians killed in the first hours of Hamas' bloody attack on border villages. At least 212 people were taken hostage; two Americans were released Friday in what Hamas described as a humanitarian gesture. The Gaza Health Ministry put the Palestinian death toll at 4,385; almost two-thirds of the fatalities are children and women. More than 1,000 people have been reported missing and are feared trapped or dead under the rubble. Israel repeated its calls Sunday for Palestinians to leave northern Gaza. Israeli authorities say an estimated 700,000 have already fled, but hundreds of thousands remain. Fleeing to southern Gaza has provided little relief as Israeli airstrikes there have also battered cities and infrastructure. Gaza's Housing Ministry says more than 160,000 homes and apartments − more than 40% of all dwellings − in Gaza have been damaged or destroyed since the war began two weeks ago. The result is that about 1.4 million of Gaza's 2.3 million people have been "internally displaced," and 566,000 of them are staying in U.N. emergency shelters, the U.N. says.
What is Hamas?
Hamas – an acronym for Harakat al-Muqawama al-Islamiya, or the Islamic resistance movement – was founded in 1987 by activists connected to the Muslim Brotherhood during the first Palestinian uprising against Israeli occupation of Gaza and the West Bank. The State Department designated Hamas a terrorist group in 1997, and several other nations also consider Hamas a terrorist organization. In 2006, Hamas won parliamentary elections, and in 2007 the group violently seized control of Gaza from the Palestinian Authority, which was controlled by the rival Fatah movement that still governs the West Bank. There have been no elections since. The group calls for the establishment of an Islamic Palestinian state that would replace the current state of Israel and believes in the use of violence to carry out the destruction of Israel. Hamas receives financial, material, and logistical support from Iran. So far, however, the U.S. and other nations have said there is no evidence that Iran was directly involved in Hamas’ attack.

US advises citizens not to travel to Iraq after recent attacks on US personnel
Kanishka Singh/WASHINGTON (Reuters)/October 22, 2023
The U.S. State Department said on Sunday U.S. citizens should not travel to Iraq after recent attacks on American troops and personnel in the region. The travel advisory says, "Do not travel to Iraq due to terrorism, kidnapping, armed conflict, civil unrest, and Mission Iraq’s limited capacity to provide support to U.S. citizens."There has been a spike in attacks against U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria since the conflict between Israel and Hamas militants in Gaza broke out. Last week, a U.S. warship shot down more than a dozen drones and four cruise missiles fired by Iranian-backed Houthis from Yemen. The advisory followed the ordered departure of eligible family members and non-emergency U.S. government personnel from U.S. Embassy Baghdad and U.S. Consulate General Erbil "due to increased security threats against U.S. personnel and interests," the State Department said in a statement. The statement added that anti-U.S. militias "threaten U.S. citizens and international companies" throughout Iraq. Earlier on Sunday, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said they saw the prospect of a significant escalation in attacks on American troops in the Middle East and of Iran seeking to widen the Israel-Hamas war. Washington is on heightened alert for activity by Iran-backed groups as regional tensions soar during the Israel-Hamas war, which began after Palestinian Islamist group Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7, killing over 1,400 people. Israel has since retaliated with deadly air strikes on Gaza, a 45 km-long (25-mile) strip of land that is part of the Israeli-occupied Palestinian territories and home to 2.3 million people that has been ruled politically since 2007 by Hamas. Israel's air strikes have killed over 4,700 people, Palestinian officials say. "Because of security concerns, U.S. government personnel in Baghdad are instructed not to use Baghdad International Airport," the State Department said on Sunday. The United States has sent a significant amount of naval power to the Middle East in recent weeks, including two aircraft carriers, their support ships and about 2,000 Marines. The U.S. will send a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system and additional Patriot air defense missile system battalions to the Middle East, the Pentagon said on Saturday.

Egypt's border crossing opens to let a trickle of desperately needed aid into besieged Gaza
RAFAH, Gaza Strip (AP)/October 22, 2023
The border crossing between Egypt and Gaza opened Saturday to let a trickle of desperately needed aid into the besieged Palestinian territory for the first time since Israel sealed it off and began pounding it with airstrikes following Hamas' bloody rampage two weeks ago. Just 20 trucks were allowed in, an amount aid workers said was insufficient to address the unprecedented humanitarian crisis. More than 200 trucks carrying 3,000 tons of aid have been waiting nearby for days. Gaza's 2.3 million Palestinians, half of whom have fled their homes, are rationing food and drinking dirty water. Hospitals say they are running low on medical supplies and fuel for emergency generators amid a territory-wide power blackout. Five hospitals have stopped functioning because of fuel shortages and bombing damage, the Hamas-run Health Ministry said. Doctors reported using sewing needles to stitch wounds, and using vinegar as a disinfectant until the shops ran out. With anesthesia running low, the screams of patients could be heard during surgery. Doctors Without Borders said Gaza’s health care system is “facing collapse.” Meantime, Gaza’s Hamas-run Interior Ministry reported heavy Israeli airstrikes across the territory overnight into Sunday, including southern areas where Israel had told Palestinians to seek refuge. The ministry said that among the sites hit were homes and a cafe in the evacuation zone where dozens of displaced residents had sought shelter.
Israel’s military has said it is striking Hamas members and installations, but does not target civilians. In a statement posted early Sunday on X, the site formerly known as Twitter, the Israeli military said it had launched a strike on the Al-Ansar mosque at the Jenin refugee camp in the occupied West Bank.
There are growing expectations of a ground offensive that Israel says would be aimed at rooting out Hamas. Israel said Friday that it doesn't plan to take long-term control over the small but densely populated Palestinian territory.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu convened his Cabinet late Saturday to discuss the expected invasion, Israeli media reported.
Israel’s military spokesman, Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari, said the country planned to step up its airstrikes starting Saturday as preparation for the next stage of the war.
“We will deepen our attacks to minimize the dangers to our forces in the next stages of the war. We are going to increase the attacks, from today,” Hagari said, repeating his call for Gaza City residents to head south for their safety. Israel has vowed to crush Hamas but has given few details about what it envisions for Gaza if it succeeds. Yifat Shasha-Biton, a Cabinet minister, said there was broad consensus in the government that there will have to be a “buffer zone” in Gaza to keep Palestinians away from the border. “We need to create a distance between the border and our communities,” she told Channel 13 TV, adding that no decisions had been made on its size or other specifics. Tensions have risen in the West Bank, where dozens of Palestinians have been killed in clashes with Israeli troops, arrest raids and attacks by Jewish settlers. Israeli forces have held the West Bank under a tight grip, closing crossings into the territory and checkpoints between cities, measures they say are aimed at preventing attacks. The opening of Rafah came after more than a week of high-level diplomacy, including visits to the region by U.S. President Joe Biden and U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres. Israel had insisted nothing would enter Gaza until Hamas released all the captives from its Oct. 7 attack on towns in southern Israel. Late Friday, Hamas freed its first captives — an American woman and her teenage daughter. It was not immediately clear if there was a connection between the release and the aid deliveries. Israel says Hamas is still holding at least 210 hostages, though their conditions — and if they are even alive — remains unknown. On Saturday morning, an Associated Press reporter saw the 20 trucks heading north from Rafah to Deir al-Balah, a quiet farming town where many evacuees from the north have sought shelter. Hundreds of foreign passport holders at Rafah hoping to escape the conflict were not allowed to leave.
American citizen Dina al- Khatib said she and her family were desperate to get out. “It’s not like previous wars,” she said. “There is no electricity, no water, no internet, nothing.” The trucks carried 44,000 bottles of drinking water — enough for 22,000 people for a single day, according to UNICEF. “This first, limited water will save lives, but the needs are immediate and immense,” said UNICEF Executive Director Catherine Russell. The World Health Organization said four of the trucks were carrying medical supplies, including trauma medicine and portable trauma bags for first responders. “We need many, many, many more trucks and a continual flow of aid," said, the head of the U.N.’s World Food Program, Cindy McCain. Gaza's Hamas-run government called for a secure corridor operating around the clock. Hagari, the Israeli military spokesman, said “the humanitarian situation in Gaza is under control.” He said the aid would be delivered only to southern Gaza, where the army has ordered people to relocate, adding that no fuel would enter. Biden said the United States “remains committed to ensuring that civilians in Gaza will continue to have access to food, water, medical care, and other assistance, without diversion by Hamas.”The U.S. government would work to keep Rafah open and let U.S. citizens leave Gaza, he said in a statement. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said late Saturday he was sending additional air defense systems to the Middle East and putting more troops on "prepare to deploy" orders. Guterres emphasized international concern over civilians in Gaza, telling a summit in Cairo that Hamas’ “reprehensible assault” on Israel “can never justify the collective punishment of the Palestinian people.”Two Egyptian officials and a European diplomat said extensive negotiations with Israel and the U.N. to allow fuel deliveries for hospitals had yielded little progress. They spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to release information on the sensitive deliberations.
One Egyptian official said they were discussing the release of dual-national hostages in return for fuel, but that Israel was insisting on the release of all hostages.
The release of Judith Raanan and her 17-year-old daughter, Natalie, on Friday brought some hope to the families of others believed held hostage.
Rachel Goldberg, whose son is thought to have been badly wounded before he was taken hostage, said she was “very relieved” by the news but urged quick work to save others, including her son. “I think he could be dying," she said. "So we don’t have time.”
Hamas said it was working with Egypt, Qatar and other mediators “to close the case” of hostages if security circumstances permit. Israel has also traded fire along its northern border with Lebanon’s Hezbollah militants, raising concerns about a second front opening up. The Israeli military said Saturday it struck Hezbollah targets in Lebanon in response to recent rocket launches and attacks with anti-tank missiles. “Hezbollah has decided to participate in the fighting, and we are exacting a heavy price for this,” Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said during a visit to the border. Hezbollah said six of its fighters were killed Saturday, and the group’s deputy leader, Sheikh Naim Kassem, warned that Israel would pay a high price if it starts a ground offensive in the Gaza Strip. Israel ordered its citizens to leave Egypt and Jordan — which made peace with it decades ago — and to avoid travel to a number of Arab and Muslim countries, including the United Arab Emirates, Morocco and Bahrain, which forged diplomalarge demonstrationstic ties with Israel in 2020. Protests against Israel's actions in Gaza have erupted across the region, and large demonstrations were held Saturday in several European and U.S. cities.
An Israeli ground assault would likely lead to a dramatic escalation in casualties on both sides in urban fighting. More than 1,400 people in Israel have been killed in the war — mostly civilians slain during the Hamas attack. More than 4,300 people have been killed in Gaza, according to the Hamas-run Health Ministry. That includes the disputed toll from a hospital explosion.
At the summit Saturday, Egypt President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi called for ensuring aid to Gaza, negotiating a cease-fire and resuming Israeli-Palestinian peace talks, which broke down more than a decade ago. He also said the conflict would never be resolved “at the expense of Egypt,” referring to fears Israel may try to push Gaza’s population into the Sinai Peninsula. King Abdullah II of Jordan said Israel's attacks on Gaza were “a war crime” and slammed the international community's response. “Anywhere else, attacking civilian infrastructure and deliberately starving an entire population of food, water, electricity, and basic necessities would be condemned,” he said. Over a million people have been displaced in Gaza. Many heeded Israel’s orders to evacuate from north to south within the sealed-off coastal enclave. But Israel has continued to bomb areas in southern Gaza . A senior Israeli military official said the air force will not hit the area where aid is being distributed unless rockets, which militants are relentlessly launching at Israel, are fired from there. “It’s a safe zone,” said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity in order to reveal military information.

Russian casualties soar by 90% as Putin's generals order furious attacks on small city in east, UK intelligence says
Alia Shoaib/ Business Insider/Sun, October 22, 2023
Anti-Putin Russian fighters claim latest attack in southern RussiaScroll back up to restore default view. Russia has been carrying out offensive operations in the area of Avdiivka in eastern Ukraine. The assaults have contributed to a 90% increase in Russian casualties, the UK MoD said. Russia has gained marginal ground but suffered high personnel and weaponry losses in the area. Russian offensive military campaigns in eastern Ukraine have been partly behind a 90% increase in Russian casualties recorded by Ukraine, according to an intelligence update from the UK Ministry of Defence.
Russia has been carrying out offensive operations in the area of Avdiivka, a small city just to the north of Donetsk. The moves have been largely unsuccessful so far, with Russia gaining marginal ground but suffering high losses to its personnel and weaponry.
Much of the fighting in Ukraine is now in the south and east of the country, where Ukrainian forces are conducting counteroffensive operations to take back territory occupied by Russia. The US think tank the Institute for the Study of War previously said that "Russian forces likely intend attacks in the Avdiivka area to fix Ukrainian forces and prevent them from redeploying to other areas of the front."But "Ukrainian officials have already identified the Avdiivka push as a Russian fixing operation, and they are unlikely to unduly commit Ukrainian manpower to this axis," the think tank added.
Russia is able to commit to such costly attacks as it has ramped up recruitment over the course of the war by utilizing "financial incentives" and its partial mobilization last year, the UK MoD also said in its update. "This increase of personnel is the major factor behind Russia's ability to both defend held territory and conduct costly assaults," it said. It added that it was likely Russian forces had taken around 150,000-190,000 "permanent casualties" — those killed and permanently wounded — since Putin's full-scale invasion began in February 2022. Those figures do not include the mercenary Wagner Group, which was headed by Yevgeny Prigozhin until he reportedly died in a plane crash in August, or their prisoner battalions who fought in Bakhmut.
US pushes UN to back Israel self-defense, demand Iran stop arms to Hamas
Michelle Nichols/UNITED NATIONS (Reuters)/October 22, 2023
The United States proposed on Saturday a draft U.N. Security Council resolution that says Israel has a right to defend itself and demands Iran stop exporting arms to "militias and terrorist groups threatening peace and security across the region."
The draft text, seen by Reuters, calls for the protection of civilians - including those who are trying to get to safety - notes that states must comply with international law when responding to "terrorist attacks", and urges the "continuous, sufficient and unhindered" delivery of aid to the Gaza Strip. It was not immediately clear if or when the United States planned to put the draft resolution to a vote. To pass, a resolution needs at least nine votes in favor and no vetoes by Russia, China, the United States, France or Britain. The move by the United States comes after it vetoed a Brazilian-drafted text on Wednesday that would have called for humanitarian pauses in the conflict between Israel and Palestinian Hamas militants, to allow aid access to Gaza. U.S. Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield justified Wednesday's veto by telling the council more time was needed for diplomacy on the ground as President Joe Biden and Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited the region, focused on brokering aid access to Gaza and trying to free hostages held by Hamas. Hamas released two American hostages on Friday and the first humanitarian aid convoy arrived in Gaza from Egypt on Saturday. Israel has vowed to wipe out the Hamas Islamist group that rules Gaza, after its gunmen burst through the barrier fence surrounding the enclave on Oct. 7 and rampaged through Israeli towns and kibbutzes, killing 1,400 people. Israel has since pounded Gaza from the air, imposed a siege and is preparing for a ground offensive. Palestinian authorities say more than 4,000 people have been killed in the enclave. The U.N. says more than a million have been made homeless. The U.S. draft text does not call for any pause or truce in the fighting. It calls on all states to try and stop the "violence in Gaza from spilling over or expanding to other areas in the region, including by demanding the immediate cessation by Hezbollah and other armed-groups of all attacks." Lebanon's Iran-backed, heavily armed Hezbollah group has clashed with Israel across the Lebanese border multiple times since Oct. 7 in the deadliest confrontations since they fought a month-long war in 2006.
SELF-DEFENSE
The U.S. draft resolution demands Iran stop exporting arms to groups threatening peace and security across the region, including Hamas. Iran's mission to the U.N. in New York did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Iran has made no secret of its backing for Hamas, funding and arming the group and another Palestinian militant organisation Islamic Jihad. Iran's mission to the U.N. said on Oct. 8 that Tehran was not involved in the Hamas attack on Israel a day earlier. Thomas-Greenfield said on Wednesday that the U.S. was disappointed the Brazilian draft did not mention Israel's right to self defense. The U.S. text states that Israel has such a right under Article 51 of the founding U.N. Charter. Article 51 covers the individual or collective right of states to self-defense against armed attack and states must immediately inform the 15-member Security Council of any action that states take in self-defense against armed attack. In a letter sent the same day as the Hamas attack, Israel told the council it would "act in any way necessary to protect its citizens and sovereignty from the ongoing terrorist attacks originating from the Gaza Strip." But it does not appear to have formally invoked Article 51, diplomats said. Arab countries have argued that Israel cannot justify its actions as self-defense. "The Gaza Strip is an occupied territory," Jordan's U.N. Ambassador Mahmoud Daifallah Hmoud told the council on Monday, citing a 2004 opinion by the International Court of Justice on an Israeli separation barrier built around the West Bank.
"We recall the advisory opinion of the ICJ ... according to which Israel does not have the right to defend itself within occupied Palestinian territory," he said, speaking on behalf of the Arab group. Israel said in 2004 that the barrier was meant to keep suicide bombers out of its cities. The ICJ said Israel "states, the threat which it regards as justifying the construction of the wall originates within, and not outside, that territory."
"Consequently, the Court concludes that Article 51 of the Charter has no relevance in this case," it ruled. Israel rejected the ICJ ruling.

Thousands protest in Paris, demand 'an end to the massacre in Gaza'
LBCI/October 22, 2023
Around 15,000 people marched in Paris on Sunday to demand an end to Israeli military operations in Gaza, following a call from a coalition that includes various left-wing organizations. Protesters chanted slogans such as "Israel is a killer, President Emmanuel Macron is complicit" and "No peace without ending the settlements."

Cairo Peace Summit: Arab and Western clashing perspectives
LBCI/October 22, 2023
A significant difference in perspective between the Arab and Western nations became obvious during the Cairo Peace Summit. The Arab view of the scale of the Israeli attack on Gaza and the resulting humanitarian tragedy due to the blockade imposed on Gaza was met with a Western perspective focused on what Hamas had done in the Gaza Strip settlements. The Arab nations were inclined towards issuing a strong statement condemning Israel for its massacres. At the same time, some Western countries leaned towards a statement condemning Hamas while rejecting calls for an immediate ceasefire.
However, they were willing to accept conditions for aid delivery through the Rafah crossing. Most Western nations participating were not initially willing to issue any statement, regardless of its wording. Qatar, whose Emir left the summit before its conclusion, attended it out of respect for the participants and did not intend to deliver a speech. On the other hand, Egypt attempted to find a relatively balanced formula but failed. This can be interpreted through the Egyptian presidential statement issued after the summit, which spoke of a defect in international values. Furthermore, it criticized the rush and competition to kill innocents in one place and an incomprehensible hesitation to condemn the same act in another place, according to the statement. The vague title "Cairo Peace Summit" indicates that even discussing a ceasefire was unacceptable to the West. It is more likely that Egypt and Jordan, concerned about any international attempts to relocate part of the Palestinians to their territories, wanted to host a summit, even if it resulted in no significant outcomes. This was in the hope that their concerns would find some Western understanding, dispelling some of their fears that a solution might come at their expense.

UNRWA announces death of 29 of its employees in Gaza
LBCI/October 22, 2023
Since the beginning of the war between Israel and Hamas Movement, 29 employees of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestinian Refugees (UNRWA) in Gaza have been killed. The agency also expressed its shock and mourning through its account on the X platform.

Detroit synagogue president found stabbed to death outside home
ABC News/Sat, October 22, 2023
The president of a Detroit synagogue was found stabbed to death outside her home Saturday morning, police and the synagogue said. The Isaac Agree Downtown Synagogue put out a statement later in the afternoon identifying the victim as board president Samantha Woll. Detroit police responded to a 911 call of an unresponsive person around 6:30 a.m. and found a body outside a home on Joliet Place. The woman, who was not immediately identified by investigators had suffered multiple stab wounds, police said. "At this point, we do not have more information, but will share more when it becomes available. May her memory be a blessing," the synagogue said in a Facebook post. The police did not have any information on a possible motive behind the killing, which is being investigated as a homicide. "Police officers observed a trail of blood leading officers to the victim’s residence, which is where the crime is believed to have occurred," the police said in a statement.
The investigation is ongoing.
A law enforcement official briefed on the probe told ABC News that the preliminary investigation has revealed there was likely no forced entry to Woll’s home. All possible motives are being investigated and nothing has been ruled out at this point, according to the official. Woll's death comes as law enforcement agencies across the country are warning of increased anti-Semitic threats in light of the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict. Detroit Police Department Chief James E. White urged the public not to draw any conclusions until more facts were gathered. "Understandably, this crime leaves many unanswered questions. This matter is under investigation, and I am asking that everyone remain patient while investigators carefully examine every aspect of the available evidence," he said in a statement. Woll had a long career in local politics and worked with several elected officials over the years, according to her LinkedIn page.
She recently served as the political director for Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel's re-election campaign. Nessel released a statement on X, formerly known as Twitter, expressing shock at Woll's murder. "Sam was as kind a person as I’ve ever known. She was driven by her sincere love of her community, state and country. Sam truly used her faith and activism to create a better place for everyone," Nessel said in her post which included a photo of Woll. MORE: Law enforcement 'very concerned' about 'lone wolf' threat against Jewish communities after Hamas attack: Mayorkas
Woll also worked as a deputy district director for U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin, D-Mich., who also released a statement on X following her death. "She did for our team as Deputy District Director what came so naturally to her: helping others & serving constituents. Separately, in politics & in the Jewish community, she dedicated her short life to building understanding across faiths, bringing light in the face of darkness," Slotkin said. Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer said the state police will be assisting the Detroit Police department in the investigation.
"My heart breaks for her family, her friends, her synagogue, and all those who were lucky enough to know her. She was a source of light, a beacon in her community who worked hard to make Michigan a better place," she said in a statement. Other Michigan elected officials also expressed their condolences. "Decades ago, I shared a day of joy with Sam at the dedication of the newly renovated Downtown Synagogue. It was a project she successfully led with great pride and enthusiasm. Sam’s loss has left a huge hole in the Detroit community," Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan said in a statement to ABC affiliate WXYZ. Anyone with information is urged to call the Detroit Police's Homicide section at 313-596-2260.

Iran to host Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process talks amid Middle East tensions
DUBAI/MOSCOW (Reuters)/October 22, 2023
Foreign ministers from Iran, Turkey and Russia will meet their counterparts from Azerbaijan and Armenia in Tehran on Monday and discuss progress towards a peace agreement between the two South Caucasus neighbours, Iranian and Russian state media said. The first meeting of foreign ministers of Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan after the September lightning offensive by Azeri forces in Nagorno-Karabakh will also take place amid rising tensions in the Middle East. IRNA news agency quoted the foreign ministry as saying the countries wanted to talk about regional issues "without the interference of non-regional and Western countries". That was an implicit reference to the United States and the European Union, whose involvement in the search for a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan has particularly annoyed Moscow. Russia's Interfax news agency said Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov would travel to Tehran for the meeting. Since launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Moscow has sought to firm up military and diplomatic ties with countries outside the traditional West. Lavrov has met his Iranian counterpart several times since. Russia regards itself as the security guarantor between Azerbaijan and Armenia, but the demands and distractions of its war in Ukraine have led to a weakening of its influence. Azerbaijan last month staged a lightning offensive to regain control of the region of Nagorno-Karabakh where ethnic Armenians had enjoyed de facto independence since breaking away in the 1990s.
More than 100,000 ethnic Armenians were forced to flee and Armenia has accused Azerbaijan of carrying out ethnic cleansing - a claim Azerbaijan denies, saying people were free to stay and be integrated into Azerbaijan. The two countries have fought two wars in the past three decades and have so far failed to reach a peace deal despite long-running efforts by the United States, EU and Russia. The so-called 3+3 South Caucasus Platform, which first held talks in 2021, were to include also Georgia, but Georgia has stated previously it did not plan to participate in the initiative and said on Sunday it will not be coming to Teheran.

Latest English LCCC  analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on October 22-23/2023
Palestine: A Cause or a State?
Amir Taheri/Asharq Al-Awsat /October 22, 2023
Why did Hamas trigger its attack out of the blue? Hamas apologists repeat the usual shibboleths: occupation, colonial settlements, expulsions, Apartheid, the two-state solution.
A closer look, however, shows that none of those "reasons" could explain, let alone justify, why Hamas did what it did on October 7.
The [Palestinian Authority] and Hamas have preferred to pose as guardians of the flame rather than builders of state structures.... For a brief period, 2007-2013, the PA under Prime Minister Salam Fayyad tried to promote the state-building culture as opposed to the chest-beating posture of "the cause". But both Hamas and the PA did all they could to derail Fayyad's project.
The "Gaza first" scheme exposed the concept of "security through evacuation" as a dangerous myth that replaced another myth: land-for-peace, which has offered what amounts to lukewarm and always reversible peace.
All along, Israeli leaders tried to jump through one hoop after another to avoid seriously dealing with the "two-state" formula, which the United States and its Western allies promoted regardless of its lack of support among Israelis and Palestinians.
[T]he "Palestinian cause" [is] used, and abused, as a means of legitimizing regimes as diverse as the Islamic Republic of Iran; the AKP in Turkey and, believe it or not, the leftist outfit in Colombia. And that not to mention "return ticket revolutionaries" in the West who draw voyeuristic pleasure from watching others kill and die for "great causes."
Throughout the Cold War, ignoring the geopolitical dimension of the Israel-Palestine issue encouraged wild-goose diplomatic chasings most notoriously symbolized by the "two-state" formula. Today, the same error is repeated by focusing almost exclusively on Hamas without asking who is funding, training, arming and manipulating Hamas in the name of "clash of civilizations".
The current tragedy has shattered the status quo that took shape in the aftermath of the Cold War. Attempts at reviving it in one form or another would only provide a prelude to even bigger tragedies.
Pictured: Hamas terrorists who were killed on the way to murder Israelis, near the city of Sderot, Israel on October 8, 2023. (Photo by Jack Guez/AFP via Getty Images)
Why did Hamas trigger the current tragedy that has given the old Israel-Palestine conflict an even deadlier dimension? And what are the chances for shooing the two sides away from the edge of the abyss?
The tsunami of comments on the latest episode shows that the Israel-Palestine conflict remains a template on which advocates of rival ideologies project their fantasies and prejudices. Why did Hamas trigger its attack out of the blue? Hamas apologists repeat the usual shibboleths: occupation, colonial settlements, expulsions, Apartheid, the two-state solution. A closer look, however, shows that none of those "reasons" could explain, let alone justify, why Hamas did what it did on October 7.
The occupation claim is out because Israeli occupation of Gaza ended in 2005, and since 2007 Hamas has been in full control of the enclave and what is presented as its government. The colonial settlements claim is equally inapplicable here because the last Israeli settlements in Gaza were dismantled in 2005 prior to full withdrawal.
The expulsion claim is even more outlandish. Between 2005 and the latest Hamas attack the only expulsions that happened in Gaza concerned Bedouin tribes kicked out of their villages and grazing areas for their flocks by Hamas gunmen. An estimated 20,000 Bedouins have been expelled to Egypt and Israel, the latest being inhabitants of villages in the Om Nasser area.
The Apartheid claim is even less credible only if because there is not a single Israeli living in Gaza to practice it against other inhabitants. The claim that Hamas is fighting for a two-state solution is also untrue, as the militant organization has consistently opposed it. Hamas has never hidden its hope of imposing a one-state solution which means the elimination of Israel in any shape or form. People like Josep Borrel, the European Union's foreign policy spokesman, and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the leader of the French leftist coalition, try to drown the fish by implying that although none of those "reasons" concerns Hamas, we must assume that it is fighting on behalf of all Palestinians including those in the West Bank.
But that means bestowing on Hamas a mandate it has never received from the Palestinians while casting doubt on the legitimacy of the Palestinian Authority (PA) which is recognized by all Arab and Islamic states and the United Nations. In the only more or less credible election held among Palestinians, Hamas won 44.2 percent of the votes to PA's 42.5 percent. Even then it was Hamas who withdrew from the scheme and expelled Fatah and other pro-PA groups from Gaza.
In the past few days, the traditional media and the cyberspace have been presenting the "two-state" scheme as the magic formula that could close this 100-year saga. That, however, is no more than an attempt to fig-leaf the nakedness of pundits and policymakers. We don't know whether or not a majority of Israelis and Palestinians think about that fig-leaf. But what is certain is that the leadership elites on both sides have never seriously committed to a roadmap in that direction.
The PA and Hamas have preferred to pose as guardians of the flame rather than builders of state structures, Hamas in a straightforward and honest way and PA with a forked tongue. For a brief period, 2007-2013, the PA under Prime Minister Salam Fayyad tried to promote the state-building culture as opposed to the chest-beating posture of "the cause". But both Hamas and the PA did all they could to derail Fayyad's project.
The PA's latest position on the two-state formula includes the return to 1949 ceasefire lines, something that no Israeli leader could accept.
Israeli leaders have been equally evasive, if not downright deceptive, on the "two-state" formula. Even before it became a diplomatic cliché, Israel tried to give a nod to Palestinian self-rule with the Yigal Allon plan that offered Palestinians a Bantustan-style administration. Ariel Sharon's "Gaza first" scheme was presented as the first step towards a two-state solution. Sharon, however; saw a semi-independent Gaza in military terms as a glacis, not realizing that a glacis could also morph into a base for aggression.
The "Gaza first" scheme exposed the concept of "security through evacuation" as a dangerous myth that replaced another myth: land-for-peace, which has offered what amounts to lukewarm and always reversible peace.
Israeli leaders always tried to drive a wedge between Gaza and the West Bank. They encouraged, not to say actually promoted, the creation of Hamas as the Palestinian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood, to undermine not only Fatah but also the grass-root Palestinian leadership represented by people like Haidar Abdul-Shafi that emerged in the aftermath of the Madrid Peace Conference. But when Hamas proved disappointing and the Madrid negotiators not easily controllable, Israel put their chips on Yasser Arafat with the Oslo Accords. All along, Israeli leaders tried to jump through one hoop after another to avoid seriously dealing with the "two-state" formula which the United States and its Western allies promoted regardless of its lack of support among Israelis and Palestinians.
The Israel-Palestine conflict started as a clash of Arab nationalism and Zionism, both modeled on 19th century European nationalistic movements. After the Second World War the clash assumed a geo-political dimension that was intensified in the Cold War.
With the end of the Cold War that geopolitical dimension has assumed an ideological varnish with the "Palestinian cause" used, and abused, as a means of legitimizing regimes as diverse as the Islamic Republic of Iran; the AKP in Turkey and, believe it or not, the leftist outfit in Colombia. And that not to mention "return ticket revolutionaries" in the West who draw voyeuristic pleasure from watching others kill and die for "great causes."
Throughout the Cold War, ignoring the geopolitical dimension of the Israel-Palestine issue encouraged wild-goose diplomatic chasings most notoriously symbolized by the "two-state" formula. Today, the same error is repeated by focusing almost exclusively on Hamas without asking who is funding, training, arming and manipulating Hamas in the name of "clash of civilizations". The current tragedy has shattered the status quo that took shape in the aftermath of the Cold War. Attempts at reviving it in one form or another would only provide a prelude to even bigger tragedies.
*Amir Taheri was the executive editor-in-chief of the daily Kayhan in Iran from 1972 to 1979. He has worked at or written for innumerable publications, published eleven books, and has been a columnist for Asharq Al-Awsat since 1987. He is the Chairman of Gatestone Europe.

China's Proxy Wars Are 'Encircling' America
Gordon G. Chang/Gatestone Institute./October 22, 2023
What is the Communist Party of China up to?
Xi Jinping, who reveres Mao Zedong, is taking a page from his hero's "peasant revolution" playbook. Mao in 1949 prevailed over his enemy, Chiang Kai-shek's Nationalist government, by "encircling the cities from the countryside."
Ukraine, North Africa, and Israel, as Beijing sees it, are parts of the "countryside" today. So, what is the "city"?
The main enemy of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is the United States of America.
[T]he Party believes it must destroy the U.S. because of what America stands for. An insecure ruling organization in Beijing is worried about the inspirational impact of America's form of governance and values on the oppressed Chinese people. This means the United States will never have amicable relations with China as long as the Communist Party rules it.
Today... the Communist Party is waging proxy wars against America, such as Russia's campaign to annex Ukraine.... Splitting off Europe from America, in turn, would be another step in starving the U.S. Similarly, China is buying friends in, among other places, Latin America, the Caribbean and the Pacific Ocean as a means of further isolating America.
President Joe Biden is either unwilling or unable to defend the world from malicious Chinese communism. The catastrophic withdrawal from Afghanistan.... signaled that American policy was in collapse.
China's leader will continue to attack... especially as Biden pays what are essentially ransoms and thereby provides incentives for further disorder. The ransoms include the unfreezing of $6 billion in connection with a hostage swap with Iran... and the October 18th announcement of "humanitarian assistance" to Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank, apparently to free Americans held by Hamas.
Allowing China, Russia and friends to take over areas is a critical — and probably fatal — mistake. Victories, for one thing, create momentum and the appearance of inevitability. Xi Jinping promotes the notion of the inevitability of Chinese rule as he tries to intimidate others into submission. China's successes just embolden the regime to press attacks.
How, then, does the United States confront China's proxy-war strategy? Washington can turn the tables on Xi by taking down Chinese proxies, thereby isolating Beijing and creating the appearance of Chinese failure.
Communist China is already overstretched. The primary driver of its four-decade rise, the economy, is in distress. The property sector accounting for at least a quarter of gross domestic product, is crumbling. Money is fleeing the country. GDP is growing nowhere near the 5.2% claimed for the first three quarters of this year—if it is growing at all. Imports, perhaps the best indicator of domestic demand, have now fallen for 12 straight months on a year-to-year basis.
[A]fter three decades of particularly naïve, indulgent, feeble, and otherwise misguided policy, Washington has no good options. The worst option of all is to continue policies that have created this disastrous situation.
America and the free world are running out of time.
America... is about to lose everything.
The Chinese Communist Party believes it must destroy the U.S. because of what America stands for. Today. the CCP is waging proxy wars against America. Allowing China, Russia, and friends to take over areas is a critical—and probably fatal—mistake. Pictured: Chinese President Xi Jinping speaks to the Politburo Standing Committee at the 20th CCP Congress on October 23, 2022 in Beijing, China. (Photo by Lintao Zhang/Getty Images)
China is setting fires.
Chinese President Xi Jinping green-lighted Russia's invasion of Ukraine and is supporting that war with lethal and other assistance. In North Africa, Beijing, in conjunction with Moscow, has been fueling insurgencies that resemble wars. In the Middle East, China is backing Hamas's monstrous attacks on Israel.
Hamas fighters, for instance, appear to have Chinese-made weapons, presumably supplied through Iran. Moreover, the U.S. Navy in 2021 and this year seized Chinese weapons in transit to another proxy of the Islamic Republic, the Houthi militia in Yemen.
"Tehran for some time has distributed Chinese weapons to its terrorist proxies throughout the region," Jonathan Bass of energy consultant InfraGlobal tells Gatestone. "The Middle East, thanks in no small measure to Beijing, is soaked with blood."
What is the Communist Party of China up to?
Xi, who reveres Mao Zedong, is taking a page from his hero's "peasant revolution" playbook. Mao in 1949 prevailed over his enemy, Chiang Kai-shek's Nationalist government, by "encircling the cities from the countryside."
Ukraine, North Africa and Israel, as Beijing sees it, are parts of the "countryside" today. So, what is the "city"?
The main enemy of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is the United States of America.
The CCP declared a "people's war" on America in a May 2019 landmark editorial in People's Daily, the self-described "mouthpiece" of the regime. The CCP views the U.S. as an existential threat. As an initial matter, America stands in the way of Beijing from ruling tianxia, or "all under Heaven."
Moreover, the Party believes it must destroy the U.S. because of what America stands for. An insecure ruling organization is worried about the inspirational impact of America's form of governance and values on the oppressed Chinese people. This means the United States will never have amicable relations with China as long as the Communist Party rules it.
Today, therefore, the CCP is waging proxy wars against America, such as Russia's campaign to annex Ukraine, or backing Iran, which has for decades been calling for "Death to Israel" and "Death to America." Beijing's takeover of North Africa looks like an attempt to control the migration routes to Europe. Splitting off Europe from America, in turn, would be another step in starving the U.S. Similarly, China is buying friends in, among other places, Latin America, the Caribbean and the Pacific Ocean as a means of further isolating America.
The Chinese regime is not bashful in revealing overall strategy. "While in the countryside, the Communist Party mobilized the masses of peasants and established base areas, thus opening up a road of encircling the cities from the rural areas and seizing political power by armed force," states China.org.cn, a Chinese propaganda site, in "An Illustrated History of the Communist Party of China."
President Joe Biden is either unwilling or unable to defend the world from malicious Chinese communism. The catastrophic withdrawal from Afghanistan, completed in August 2021, signaled that American policy was in collapse. As a result, in the "countryside" there are many soft spots for Xi to attack.
China's leader will continue to attack them, especially as Biden pays what are essentially ransoms and thereby provides incentives for further disorder. The ransoms include the unfreezing of $6 billion in connection with a hostage swap with Iran — announced on the 22nd anniversary of 9/11 — and the October 18th announcement of "humanitarian assistance" to Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank, apparently to free Americans held by Hamas.
Violence is already spreading. Hezbollah has attacked Israel from the north, and the Houthis launched missile and drone attacks from Yemen on the 19th. On October 18 and 19, militants hit American bases in Iraq and Syria.
Many, especially on the American right, believe the United States must conserve resources. They recommend, for instance, withdrawing support from Ukraine to ensure America can defend Taiwan. Similarly, the Biden administration did not lift a finger in North Africa in the past several months, ceding this crucial area to Beijing and Moscow.
Allowing China, Russia and friends to take over areas is a critical — and probably fatal — mistake. Victories, for one thing, create momentum and the appearance of inevitability. Xi promotes the notion of the inevitability of Chinese rule as he tries to intimidate others into submission. China's successes just embolden the regime to press attacks.
Momentum has been working against the United States for two years. Biden took the oath of office in a peaceful world. He then presided over a rapid collapse of the international system.
How, then, does the United States confront China's proxy-war strategy? Washington can turn the tables on Xi by taking down Chinese proxies, thereby isolating Beijing and creating the appearance of Chinese failure.
Communist China is already overstretched. The primary driver of its four-decade rise, the economy, is in distress. The property sector, accounting for at least a quarter of gross domestic product, is crumbling. Money is fleeing the country. GDP is growing nowhere near the 5.2% claimed for the first three quarters of this year — if it is growing at all. Imports, perhaps the best indicator of domestic demand, have now fallen for 12 straight months on a year-to-year basis.
Is confronting China risky and dangerous? Will doing so result in harm to America?
The answer to both questions is "yes," but after three decades of particularly naïve, indulgent, feeble and otherwise misguided policy, Washington has no good options. The worst option of all is to continue policies that have created this disastrous situation. Every course of action will be exceedingly risky.
Something has to be done, however. China is bleeding the United States and its friends.
America and the free world are running out of time. Mao in the late 1940s thought it would take him a decade to dislodge Chiang. As it turned out, he only needed about a year. Encircling the cities worked then. And it is working now.
America, therefore, is about to lose everything.
*Gordon G. Chang is the author of The Coming Collapse of China, a Gatestone Institute distinguished senior fellow, and a member of its Advisory Board.
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Regional upheaval offers Assad regime a window to recalibrate
Zaid M. Belbagi/Arab News/October 22, 2023
When Arab streets erupted in protest more than a decade ago, the most vulnerable regime was that of Bashar Assad in Syria. Remarkably, as his more established counterparts were overthrown and even publicly lynched, the unassuming ophthalmologist has shown incredible grit, holding on to power at any cost. The reignited crisis in the Middle East not only risks exposing the fragilities of his regime, but it also provides an opportunity for Assad to reimpose his writ upon Syria.
Twelve years have elapsed since Syria was overcome by nationwide protests and rebellion. Following the displacement of 12 million Syrians, vicious internal conflict, the establishment of a terrorist proto-state and, most recently, a debilitating earthquake, the only enduring factor has been the regime that Assad inherited from his father. Stepping out from the cold, he has carefully choreographed his regional political rehabilitation, with the reopening of Arab embassies and, significantly, Syria’s readmittance to the Arab League.
However, the worst protests since 2011 threatened to undo this work when, last month, public outrage at the prevailing economic crisis and resentment with the regime gripped the country. Having worked to curtail the role of Iran and Russia in propping up his regime, the protests highlighted Assad’s vulnerabilities. But concerns with the economic crisis and the fifth decade of Assad rule have shifted as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has reignited.
The deployment of a great power naval presence in the Eastern Mediterranean in recent days was in response to the perceived threat of Iran. Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian last week shuttled between Beirut, Damascus, Baghdad and Doha, underscoring his country’s muscular influence across the region. His visits have stoked concerns that the further involvement of Iran or its proxies could tilt the conflict out of Israel’s favor. Simultaneous Israeli airstrikes on Aleppo and Damascus airports were indicative of Tel Aviv’s concern that Iran-backed militias could become involved in the conflict by way of Lebanon or Syria. Shellfire from Syria landing in northeastern Israel has increased these concerns.
Having propped up the Damascus regime through the deployment of economic and military assistance, Iran’s continued support has allowed Assad to retain control. It has, in turn, provided an important foothold for Iran to support its proxies, Hezbollah and Hamas. Given that Hezbollah possesses an arsenal of some 150,000 rockets, it is little surprise that, with the conflict not going its way, Israel is concerned about the opening of another front. Syria, therefore, would seem to be teetering on the edge of becoming embroiled in the conflict, but in this complex scenario the Assad regime eyes an opportunity amid the chaos.
Assad will either have an opportunity to break free from Iran’s shackles or it will remain bound by them and unable to engage more broadly.
The immediate crisis in the region serves the Assad regime on multiple fronts. It has successfully diverted attention from the chronic internal issues in Syria, while simultaneously concerning both the US and Israel with the Iranian presence on Israel’s northern borders. Though Iran’s enduring presence weakens the ability of the Syrian regime to operate independently, it does allow the regime to portray itself as a supporter of both Hezbollah and Hamas, both of which are perceived as a useful tool in containing Israel. The utility of this stance for Damascus was evident during its support for Hamas during operations like the Al-Aqsa Flood, allowing a regime that has aligned itself with Iran to paradoxically claim to be the last bastion of Arabism.
But Assad is in a bind, relying on Iran to stay on the front foot in the conflict, while also betting on the conflict to deliver a significant reduction in Tehran’s appetite for hegemony. Though China, Russia and Iran have been integral to his durability, the rebuilding of the country and his regime’s ultimate survival relies on Syria’s wider international rehabilitation. Syria stands to gain from new supply chains connecting India with Europe through America’s Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment, which plans to draw in Israel alongside Saudi Arabia, Jordan and the UAE. However, should the Shiite axis emerge from this conflict emboldened, Assad will neither be able to reinforce his regime nor rebuild Syria, increasing the prospect for further unrest.
There is no doubt that the aftermath of the Israeli-Palestinian conflagration will have a lasting impact on the region’s geopolitical layout. Assad will either have an opportunity to break free from Iran’s shackles or it will remain bound by them and unable to engage more broadly.
The Assad regime’s survival therefore hangs in the balance. Though his strategic alliances and recent diplomatic forays are significant, they might not be enough. Repairing Arab relations, avoiding isolation and pursuing economic reforms are vital steps that, if not taken, could jeopardize his hold on power. The intricate interplay of regional politics, economic stability and international alliances will ultimately determine the fate of the Assad regime.
• Zaid M. Belbagi is a political commentator and an adviser to private clients between London and the GCC.
X: @Moulay_Zaid

How Jordan and Syria can cooperate to improve relations
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/October 22, 2023
Several of the challenges that Jordan and Syria currently face could be addressed if the two countries invested political capital in cooperating in three critical areas.
While the bilateral relationship between Jordan and Syria became strained following the outbreak of the Syrian civil war, Amman and Damascus have been improving their ties in the last few years, particularly after Syrian President Bashar Assad called King Abdullah of Jordan in October 2021 to “discuss ways to enhance cooperation” between the two nations.
As a part of its broader plan for ensuring regional stability and security, Jordan has pushed for a peace plan that will end the conflict in Syria and allow Damascus’ readmittance to the Arab League. One of Amman’s plans, announced in April, was the formation of a joint Arab group that “would directly engage the Syrian government on a detailed plan to end the conflict. The detailed roadmap deals with all the key issues … and solving the crisis so that Syria can restore its role in the region and rejoin the Arab League,” an official told Reuters. Ultimately, the Arab League readmitted Syria in May, ending its decade-long suspension. Nevertheless, since the initial rapprochement between Jordan and Syria, their bilateral relationship does not seem to have advanced. Instead, it appears to have stagnated due to several obstacles that require close cooperation between the two nations.
The first issue is the smuggling of drugs from Syria into Jordan, which has not subsided since the rapprochement. Drug trafficking could destabilize trade between Jordan and Syria. One of the other problems of drug trafficking is that it undermines the social, economic and political stability of countries and subsequently leads to a rise in other crimes. This issue can become particularly threatening in a country such as Jordan, which has a large youth population.
From Jordan’s perspective, the reintegration of Syria into the regional scene could help address this issue, as Damascus has, unfortunately, become a hub for the production of illicit drugs. The civil war, lack of security, political vacuum, economic crisis and isolation of the country by the international community have created a ripe environment for criminal groups to engage in an illicit economy and produce and smuggle illegal drugs into other countries. This multibillion-dollar industry in Syria is reportedly worth nearly three times the combined trade of the Mexican cartels.
Jordan-Syria ties appear to have stagnated due to several obstacles that require close cooperation between the two nations.
Jordan has intensified its efforts to put an end to the flow of illicit drugs from Syria. The Jordanian military has been successful in downing some drones flying into Jordan while carrying crystal meth from Syria. Several meetings have been held between Jordanian and Syrian officials in order to address the illicit drug trade, but the issue remains unresolved. Assad and Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi met in Damascus in July and Safadi was said to have raised “the dangers posed by drug smuggling across the Syrian border into the kingdom, and the need for cooperation to confront it.”
To address this issue, several critical steps should be taken. First of all, Syria and Jordan ought to create several coordinated joint committees, both political and military, that focus on enhancing border security, combating drug trafficking in the entire region and preventing drug smuggling across Syria’s border with Jordan. Amman can also seek the assistance of other Arab countries to persuade and pressure the Syrian government into cooperating with them in order to track down and dismantle the groups that are involved in the production and smuggling of illegal drugs. Incentives such as reinvigorating import and export opportunities and stronger economic ties generally can be offered to the Syrian government if it takes firmer action to put an end to this problem.
The second obstacle between the two nations is the refugee issue. In spite of the reengagement between Amman and Damascus, many Syrian refugees in Jordan have not yet returned to their homes, preferring instead to remain where they are.
This is putting significant socioeconomic pressure on a country that has the second-largest number of refugees per capita in the world. According to the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, Jordan hosts some “675,000 registered refugees from Syria, who began fleeing in 2011 when the crisis in their country brought unimaginable suffering on its citizens. Most Syrian refugees in Jordan live in its towns and villages, among local communities. Only 17 percent live in the two main refugee camps, Za’atari and Azraq.”
To address this issue, peace, stability, economic growth and security in Syria are vital. These conditions are necessary to allow the sustainable return of Syrian refugees from Jordan. This means that, to enhance its ties with Amman, the Syrian government must adequately address the economic mismanagement of the country, the predominantly state-controlled economy and concentrate on the reconstruction of infrastructure. These could all play a key role in creating jobs and improving the economy. Syria could also attempt to attract investment from other countries.
In a nutshell, in order for Jordan and Syria to further improve their bilateral ties, they must cooperate closely on three key platforms: border security, refugees and trade.
*Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian-American political scientist. X: @Dr_Rafizadeh

Brinkmanship Politics
Charles Elias Chartouni/Face Book/October 22/2023
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/123432/123432
The Iranian regime succeeded changing the overall regional dynamics which derailed the US-Saudi negotiations and the meeting between President Biden and Arab leaders. The whole dynamic unraveled and the region is under the sway of unleashed populism where political regimes live off political reprieve. Otherwise, President Biden’s bold move needs to be reciprocated by Israeli readiness to coordinate systematically their retaliation strategy and tie it to consensual political objectives. The military assault on Hamas should not compromise the chances of future negotiations, regional stability, ability to contain the Iranian destabilization strategy and safeguard Arab counter-dynamics.
The looming challenges summarize likewise:
1/ the destruction of Hamas operational infrastructures should be strictly regulated to prevent tragic humanitarian consequences that undermine the political leverage of the Palestinian National Authority and Palestinian moderates;
2/ the military objectives should pair with major political moves towards a final political settlement based on mutual recognition and separate Statehood, as stipulated throughout the 75 years of international resolutions, peace agreements and normalization scenarios. The ongoing dynamic is likely to compromise a whole legacy of constructive engagement which marked major stages in the life of this long hauled conflict;
3/ The eradication of Hamas should dovetail with the the demise of Israeli radicalism and its predatory politics, and the reactivation of peace dynamics all along;
4/ the containment of Iranian politics of subversion require stalwart strategic levees, solid regional alliances and financial retorsion politics;
5/ the checkmate of Iranian power politics ability to question the regional order, extend the realm of political wastelands and fuel strategic counter dynamics.
The Peace Summit in Cairo is an adequate move on the part of Arab States to counter the Iranian strategy, set the record straight and make the necessary adjustments. Israeli politics are bound to reckon with the Arab counter-balancing dynamics to safeguard the peace accords legacy, restart the US-Saudi negotiation and further its attending choruses. The rightful military retribution should not obfuscate the political openings and ultimately kill them: the exponential dynamics of the ongoing conflict are likely to disseminate and broaden the conflict spectrum and its destructive fallouts.The strategic umbrella provided by the US, the firm stand of the Western coalition, the equanimity of moderate Arab states, and the imperative of a comprehensive solution, should be carefully considered while tackling the dilemmatic and tragic choices elicited by the ongoing maelstrom.

Israel-Gaza conflict only serves to benefit Hamas, Iran, Israeli far-right
Nadim Shehadi/Alarabiya/October 22/2023
The current war between Israel and Hamas is a victory for both Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” and benefits Israel’s far-right. It cannot end well for Israel, and comes at the expense of Palestinian lives, and regional peace processes.
Hamas has won this war even before it ends. It is a victory against Hamas’ Palestinian and Arab rivals, who sought peace through negotiations. Israel gifted this to Hamas by giving it the opportunity to take the moral high ground, Israel lost because it has no options itself for a good outcome.
As it stands Israel cannot stop bombing Gaza, that would be capitulation. It also cannot continue bombing Gaza, there is a limit to how many people Israel can kill with no clear objective. Killing for the sake of killing is not a strategy. Israel’s friends in the region are humiliated, its enemies triumphant. Someone needs to save Israel from itself.
Wars can result in moral and political victories even when accompanied by military defeats. The 1956 Suez War is a prime example. Gamal Abdel Nasser emerged much stronger after losing the war, and regimes dominated by colonels emulating his model of Arab nationalism sprang up throughout the region.
This is also reminiscent of the summer of 2006, when a war in Gaza was provoked by Hamas abducting an Israeli soldier and resembles the 2006 Lebanon war – triggered by Hezbollah crossing the border and the associated killing of eight Israeli soldiers and abduction of a further two. Both were accompanied by rocket attacks that caused panic in Israel, shutting down the airport and sending terrorized Israeli citizens to underground shelters amid the sound of sirens.
Israel fell into the trap on both occasions and reacted with what is euphemistically described as disproportionate violence. Both Gaza and Lebanon suffered huge destruction and civilian casualties. Hamas and Hezbollah, however, proved that armed resistance can achieve what years of negotiations could not: Israel was later forced to release hundreds of prisoners and the paralysis caused by the rocket attacks was seen as a deterrent.
Today, the optics could not have been worse for Israel. Refugees are being publicly evicted and replaced by Jewish settlers in East Jerusalem. At the center of this conflict is the Arab neighborhood of Sheikh Jarrah, where most of the city’s foreign consulates are located.
It is also difficult to imagine worse timing. On one of the holiest evenings of the month of Ramadan, the Israeli army stormed the al-Aqsa mosque and shot at people during prayers. Palestinians had been protesting a ban against gathering in public places, such as the Damascus Gate of the old city, during the festive evenings. The backdrop also includes an annual hate march by Israelis chanting anti-Arab slogans. This was Israel at its worse, resuscitating memories of the 1948 Nakba, a few days before its anniversary. It triggered an unprecedented wave of protests by Palestinian citizens of Israel in major cities from Lydda to Jaffa and Acre. This was too good an opportunity to miss. Hamas gave Israel an ultimatum that Israel was obviously going to disregard and attacked with more sophisticated missiles than ever before. For the Israelis it was like a recurring nightmare, with sirens, shelters, and civilian casualties. Worst of all, Israel reacted predictably with brute force, with air raids and bombings causing heavy civilian casualties.
At the same time Hamas proceeded to declare itself the protector of the al-Aqsa mosque, the savior of refugees, and called for their right of return, all while riding the spreading wave of protests by Palestinian citizens across Israel. This was all eloquently articulated by Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, who reiterated that armed resistance is the only path to protection, and shamed both the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), and the Palestinian authority for achieving nothing through years of negotiations. He also discredited the recent Abraham Accords of normalization of relations between Arab countries and Israel, and went on a fundraising tour of Qatar and Kuwait.
For Hamas this was a win-win scenario, using the same logic as that of Iran-backed Hezbollah: That the arms of the resistance are the only protection against Israeli aggression. Its message was further legitimized by a flood of dramatic videos circulating all over the media. One showed a woman calmly pleading with a settler to give her back her home in Sheikh Jarrah. Others had apocalyptic scenes of trees catching fire around the al-Aqsa Mosque, and of soldiers attacking protestors and overturning food carts.
While Hamas may have achieved all its objectives even while the battle is still raging, it is difficult to imagine what Israel’s options are to end the war with tangible results. Israel cannot stop its operations, nor can it continue without defining achievable goals. This is the same situation if found itself in the Lebanon war of 2006 with only lose-lose scenarios.
This is also a war that affects elections on both sides. It may benefit both Hamas and Prime Minister Netanyahu. It is a perfect illustration of how radicals feed on each other and their actions mutually validate and legitimize their positions. For the far-right in Israel, it is in their interest to portray Palestinians as all being Hamas terrorists with whom negotiations are impossible. Similarly for Hamas, a figure like Netanyahu confirms that armed struggle is the only option, and that the PLO’s agenda of peace is unachievable and does not provide any protection against Israeli aggression. War ultimately benefits the warmongers and gets them votes by discrediting their internal opponents.
This could have broader regional repercussions, embarrassing the signatories of the Abraham Accords. It is a setback to any possible peace in the region. Iran and the Axis of Resistance win again, and it is a boost for Iran-backed militias in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and of course Palestine. Israel with its actions may have given them all a new lease of life. There is, however, a major difference with the summer wars of 2006. Those with the highest stakes in this game are now from a new generation, and their aspirations are for that of a better future. They are protesting across the region against the establishment that has kept them in a state of war for over 70 years. Palestinian protests are part of that, they deserve better leadership.

A Message to Khaled Meshaal
Tariq Al-Homayed/ Asharq Al-Awsat/October 22/2023
To Mr. Khaled Meshaal, I will address you as Abu Al-Walid. In your interview with Al Arabiya broadcaster, you touched on several issues, political, historical, and religious. Your rhetoric was neither coherent nor consistent, but like that of a messenger. I will not dwell on the political matters you discussed, as they are well-established.
Abu Al-Walid, I will focus on your religious rhetoric and your citations of the Holy Quran and the words of the Prophet - peace be upon him. I am not a preacher or a sheikh, but a father who fears that religion could be manipulated to misguide his children. I am worried that they might listen to you and believe that you are being truthful when you are not.
I say this because I have witnessed the various stages of your misleading and inciting discourse. Our experiences have taught us that these lies have misled youth into the abyss of terrorism and extremism, becoming fodder for failed battles. This happened from Afghanistan, which you take as a reference, to Palestine, whose cause you have tarnished.
Abu Al-Walid, you speak about the Prophet striking with the spade in the Battle of the Trench, forgetting that he stood spade in hand on the battlefield, surrounded by his Companions; he was not living a comfortable life in another country like you are in Doha.
You ask the "Ummah" to "play with fire" and march to the borders, while you are far away. Why don't you march to the borders of Gaza, even just to hand water out to those who have gone? Go and do it. If the Egyptian authorities prevent you; I promise to write an article condemning them for doing so.
And you cite the verse: "Permission has been granted to those being fought, for they have been wronged" - a Makkan-Medinan verse revealed to the Prophet in Medinah after he had spent 13 years in Makkah without calling for the use of force. The Prophet did not call for battle until after he had the support and strength of the Ansar (Supporters) in Medinah, and he did not recklessly send the Muslims to their demise. This verse was revealed in Medinah.
We are taught that the Prophet refused, when asked for permission to do so, to allow the killing of those who had harmed the Muslims in Makkah before the Hijrah (migration). The Almighty revealed the following verse to address this question: God does not love any of the treacherous, ungrateful ones.
When the family of Yasir was tortured, and Ammar witnessed the killing of his parents, the Prophet did not ask for revenge. Rather, he behaved like a great leader who sees the greater good. To prevent bloodshed, saying: "Patience, O family of Yasir! Your meeting place will be Paradise."
And you, Abu Al-Walid, did not fight the Israelis but the Palestinians themselves. The first thing you did after the Gaza elections was to throw members of Fatah and the Palestinian Authority off the rooftops; this is a documented fact.
These are the facts, Abu Al-Walid. Nothing can be more dangerous and harmful than taking matters out of their context in moments of passion, especially since honest people sympathize with the innocent people of Gaza not with you or Hamas.
Nothing is more dangerous than citing the Quran and the Prophet to mislead, especially through populist rhetoric that harms the reputation of Muslims and Islam, as Al-Qaeda and Osama bin Laden had done.
I am not a sheikh but a father who worries for his children. I always teach them that the noble Prophet had set terms and ethics even for conflict. My advice, Abu Al-Walid, is thus that you focus on your adventures. Engage in them however you want, but do not throw the Quran, religion, and the Prophet into these discussions.
In conclusion, Salam