Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on October 20-21/2023
Hezbollah's Destructive Role in Lebanon: A Threat to Peace and Stability/Elias Bejjani/October 19/2023
Amazing News out of the Middle East - Lebanon is still making Saints/Eblan Farris/Face Book/October 20/2023
Lebanon national carrier halves flights amid fears of war
Israel to evacuate residents of town near Lebanon border after flare up
Political parties in Lebanon: government has no information about Hezbollah's decisions
Canadian military preparing for possible evacuation from Lebanon
Hezbollah says inflicted casualties among Israelis in response to attack on journalists, civilians
Israel shells Lebanon after infiltrator shot at soldiers in Margaliot
Thousands displaced from southern Lebanese border towns
Israeli soldiers rally, locals flee as northern border heats up
Senior UK defense official says Lebanon must not be dragged into regional conflict
Russia advises against travel to Lebanon and Israel
Qaouq: Every gunshot in South aimed at defending Lebanon first
Bou Habib asks ambassadors to 'press Israel to halt escalation'
Mikati: Govt. making contacts to halt Israeli aggression
Lebanon's Army chief meets US Congress delegation
Hamas says Hezbollah helping it 'without harming Lebanon'
Belgium urges citizens to leave Lebanon
The post-July 2006 war: A costly reminder
How Hezbollah could draw US troops into a wider war in the Middle East/Tom Porter/Business Insider/October 20, 2023
Criticism In Lebanon: The Government Has No Authority; Iran And Hizbullah Decide On Matters Of War And Peace/MEMRI/October 20, 2023

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on October 20-21/2023
Israel briefing: Five key developments in the Israel-Hamas war today
Israel says two Americans held hostage by Hamas, a mother and daughter, have been released
Israel briefing: Five key developments in the Israel-Hamas war on day 14
UN chief visits Egypt's Rafah crossing ahead of Gaza aid delivery
Biden says Gaza aid likely to cross in 'next 24 to 48 hours'
With eyes of the world on Gaza, Iran’s ‘axis of resistance’ is quietly moving in for the kill
Powerful Saudi prince breaks ranks to condemn Hamas
How the Israel-Hamas War Could Pull in Arab Nations
Pentagon denies report that thousands of artillery shells meant for Ukraine will be sent to Israel, straining the ammo stockpile
Israel pounds Gaza ahead of expected ground offensive
Gulf, Asian nations end summit with call for cease-fire
No plans for Israel to control life in Gaza, ministry says
Netanyahu is to blame for Hamas war, say four out of five Israelis
The US is dangerously close to being pulled into a Middle East war
Aid trucks need to move to Gaza as quickly as possible: UN chief
Hamas official says group ‘well aware’ of consequences of attack on Israel, Palestinian liberation comes with ‘sacrifices’
GCC, ASEAN call for permanent ceasefire in Gaza, condemn attacks against civilians

Titles For The Latest English LCCC  analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on October 20-21/2023
Palestine: A Cause or a State?/Amir Taheri/Asharq Al-Awsat/October 20/2023
Are One Million Gazans Headed for Egypt?/Abdulrahman Al-Rashed/Asharq Al-Awsat/October 20/2023
Israel’s picturesque, ghostly North awaits next phase of war/Seth J. Frantzman/The Jerusalem Post/October 20/ 2023
Iran mobilizes proxies for drone war on US and Israel - analysis/Seth J. Frantzman/The Jerusalem Post/October 20/2023
Intelligence Failures - Again/Pete Hoekstra/Gatestone Institute./October 20, 2023
Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe ... Supporting Israel and Ukraine Against Terror/Jonathan Schanzer/FDD/October 20/2023

Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on October 20-21/2023
Hezbollah's Destructive Role in Lebanon: A Threat to Peace and Stability
Elias Bejjani/October 19/2023
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/123338/elias-bejjani-hezbollahs-destructive-role-in-lebanon-a-threat-to-peace-and-stability/
Lebanon has long been a nation beset by political strife, sectarian tensions, and a fragile balance of power. But amidst these complexities, one entity stands out as a particularly destructive force: Hezbollah. This Shiite militant group, with its dual identity as both a political party and a paramilitary organization, continues to sow the seeds of discord and violence within the country, threatening the very essence of Lebanon's existence.
Hezbollah, which was founded in the early 1980s with Iranian and Syrian support, has since evolved into a powerful and well-armed military force. Its actions, both inside and outside Lebanon, have earned it the label of a terrorist organization by a number of countries, including the United States and many in the European Union. But the true cost of Hezbollah's actions is not merely measured in the formal designations it carries; it is measured in the pain and suffering inflicted on the Lebanese people and the erosion of the nation's sovereignty.
One of the most pressing concerns regarding Hezbollah is its military wing's activities. The group has been responsible for numerous acts of terrorism, including bombings, kidnappings, and rocket attacks. Its military actions, often serving as proxies for foreign powers, have dragged Lebanon into regional conflicts and compromised the security of its own citizens. The scars of the 2006 Lebanon War still remain, a testament to the havoc Hezbollah can wreak on the country.
Moreover, Hezbollah's close alignment with Iran has turned Lebanon into a battleground for regional rivalries. This alignment has little to do with the interests of the Lebanese people but instead serves the objectives of the Iranian regime. As a result, Lebanon is not only a victim of its own political divisions but also a pawn in the larger regional chessboard, where Hezbollah's strings are pulled by foreign powers.
The intertwining of Hezbollah's military might with its political influence has created a dangerous dynamic within Lebanon. It wields significant power within the government, often hindering the functioning of state institutions and using its clout to shape policy in ways that are inconsistent with the best interests of the nation. This polarizing effect has stalled progress and deepened divisions within the already fragmented political landscape of Lebanon.
Furthermore, Hezbollah has cleverly employed social services, including schools, hospitals, and charities, as tools to consolidate its influence and recruitment. While these services may appear to benefit the local population, they serve to maintain its grip on power and deepen its influence, further complicating the challenges facing Lebanon.
It is evident that Hezbollah's destructive role in Lebanon poses a grave threat to the nation's peace, stability, and progress. The Lebanese people deserve better. They deserve a nation free from the shackles of regional conflicts and terrorist activities. They deserve a government that acts in their best interests, rather than one influenced by a paramilitary organization with foreign ties.
Addressing the Hezbollah problem is a complex task that necessitates international cooperation, commitment, and the recognition of Lebanon's sovereignty. It is time for the world to recognize the destructive force Hezbollah represents, not just for Lebanon but for regional stability. A stable and prosperous Lebanon requires a concerted effort to mitigate Hezbollah's influence and allow the country to chart its own course towards peace and prosperity.

Amazing News out of the Middle East - Lebanon is still making Saints
Eblan Farris/Face Book/October 20/2023
Announcement from the Vatican Thur Oct. 19, 2023, Vatican Council approval to declare Patriarch Al-Duwaihi blessed on the altars of the Maronite Church. With all the bad news coming out of the Middle East, there is bright news out of Lebanon - it is amazing that Lebanon is still producing Saints in the Catholic Church. On the road to Sainthood is Patriarch Estephan al-Duahai, he was the Patriarch of Antioch and all the East in the Maronite Catholic Rite, from 1670-1704. This is the first Patriarch seat created and first occupied by St. Peter in Antioch, and moved to Lebanon in approx. 682, and is still active today. A theological conference was held this week in the Vatican. The Vatican's Theological Council has confirmed that a miracle happened through the prayers of the Venerable Patriarch Estephan Al-Duwaihi. A theological conference was held to study and confirm the miracle, which is needed for Patriarch Al-Duwaihi to be beatified.The miracle of intercession has been confirmed, and Patriarch Al-Duwaihi has been approved to be declared blessed on the altars of the Maronite Church. Currently awaiting the decree of beatification from Pope Francis, as well as a proposed feast day for Patriarch Al-Duwaihi and the date of his beatification celebration. 3 main Steps to Sainthood - local bishop opens official cause, granted title "Servant of God", becomes 1. "Venerable", granted title 2. "Blessed", granted and becomes 3. "Saint"

Lebanon national carrier halves flights amid fears of war
Arab News/October 20/2023
Israel military orders evacuation of northern city after border clashes
BEIRUT: Lebanon’s national carrier, Middle East Airlines, said it was cutting more than half of its flights as tensions along the border with Israel prompted more Western countries to warn against travel to the country. Mohammed El-Hout, chairman of MEA, said only eight of the company’s 22 planes would operate as of next week, with the rest relocated to other airports. “More than half of the company’s flights will be canceled,” Al-Hout said in a TV interview, adding the decision came after changes to the company’s insurance coverage following the Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israel. “Insurance companies began to worry two or three days after” the attack, he said, explaining war risk coverage was reduced. El-Hout said “we will release a dynamic flight schedule to ensure the arrival of most passengers to their destination.”On Saturday, 10 aircraft will leave Beirut and temporarily move to other countries, including Cyprus, Turkey, and Qatar, El-Hout announced. “Beirut’s Rafic Hariri International Airport will maintain communication with the rest of the world. If we stop operating, other airlines will be encouraged to suspend their flights to Lebanon,” he said. El-Hout added insurance companies began to worry about the risk of war when “Operation Al-Aqsa Flood” started, and an assessment was carried out in cooperation with them. “I contacted the highest references in Lebanon and all the information we got indicated that the operations will remain within the conflict rules and under control in southern Lebanon rather than escalate. The element of surprise, however, remains,” he said. “When insurance is completely canceled, we will decide what to do.”El-Hout said: “Even if we suffer significant losses at this point, we will make up for that later, and we will get back on our feet.
“We are committed to our employees and have what it takes to overcome these events.”Other airlines, including Swiss International Airlines and Germany’s Lufthansa, have temporarily suspended Beirut flights as Western countries urge their nationals to leave Lebanon. Saudia has suspended flights to Lebanon until the end of this month. Embassies of foreign and Arab countries continue to warn their nationals against remaining in or traveling to Lebanon, including Oman, Ukraine, and the Netherlands. On Friday, Belgium became the latest country to issue a travel advisory.
“Due to the unpredictability of the situation, Belgians are asked to leave the country as quickly as possible,” said a message on the embassy’s website. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock arrived in Beirut on Friday and held talks with Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati and Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib. The implications of the conflict in the Gaza Strip for Europe’s security were discussed at the talks. Baerbock said Germany was working closely with the G7, EU, and regional partners to ensure aid could flow into Gaza. Also on Friday, developments along the southern Lebanese border and the challenges faced by Lebanon’s military were discussed at a meeting attended by a visiting US delegation. Lebanese Army Commander Gen. Joseph Aoun met at his office with a delegation of assistants of US Congress members, an army statement said. US Defense Attache Col. Aimee Mowry also joined the talks. Areas adjacent to the Blue Line in southern Lebanon are witnessing additional mobile military operations as Hezbollah targets more Israeli outposts. The Israeli Defense Forces said it had targeted Hezbollah’s “military infrastructure.”
Sirens have been activated at UNIFIL’s headquarters in Naqoura amid bombardments in the afternoon. According to Israeli media reports, the IDF was chasing after a gunman who might have infiltrated Israel and opened fire toward the Margaliot settlement on the Lebanese border.The Lebanese Armed Forces said the IDF killed a civilian member of a journalist team comprising seven people in southern Lebanon on Thursday.The army added the team was covering the security developments in the border region in front of the Israeli outpost of Al-Abad on the outskirts of Houla.
They were cornered for five hours and directly targeted with machine guns. The UNIFIL forces deployed on the Israeli side intervened to rescue them. The victim appeared to be Mohammed Abdallah Al-Bekai — a Lebanese man driving the car transporting the team, comprised of three Iranians from an Iranian channel, an Iraqi journalist, and three Lebanese. In an unprecedented move, Al-Qassam Brigades — the armed wing of Hamas in Lebanon — claimed responsibility for launching 30 guided missiles from southern Lebanon toward the western Galilee settlements, namely Nahariya and Shlomi, on Thursday night. Also on Friday, the IDF announced plans to evacuate the northern city of Kiryat Shmona near the Lebanese border. Worshippers in Beirut and other regions protested in front of many mosques to condemn Israeli crimes against Palestinians.

Israel to evacuate residents of town near Lebanon border after flare up
JERUSALEM/BEIRUT (Reuters)/October 20, 2023
Israel said on Friday it would evacuate more than 20,000 residents from Kiryat Shmona, one of the biggest towns on its northern border with Lebanon following a heavy cross-border exchange of fire in the area the day before.
The Israel-Lebanon border has seen constant, but so far limited, clashes since a war in Gaza erupted two weeks ago. Israel had already declared some areas along the frontier as closed military zones, forcing residents to move away, but this is the largest evacuation from the lush hills of the eastern Galilee region. The Lebanese army reported a journalist killed by Israeli gunfire on Thursday in an area across the border from Kiryat Shmona where Israeli forces and Lebanon's Iran-backed Hezbollah group had a heavy exchange of fire. "We reaffirm that the killing of civilians and the assault on the security of our country will not go without response or punishment," Hezbollah said in a statement. Daniel Hagari, spokesperson for the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), said: "This kind of evacuation, which has already been done in a number of towns on the northern border, allows the IDF to expand its operational freedom to act against the Hezbollah terrorist organisation."Persistent violence along the Israel-Lebanon border has raised fears that fighting between Israel and Hamas Islamists in Gaza could spiral into a broader, regional conflict. Israel's military said one of its drones "struck a terrorist in Lebanese territory" overnight. It also said it targeted Hezbollah assets in response to rockets fired from Lebanon. Evacuees from Kiryat Shmona will be put up in state-subsidised guesthouses, Israel's Defense Ministry said, joining tens of thousands of Israelis who have already left their homes near the southern Gaza border. The Committee to Protect Journalists has said it has documented more than 20 journalists killed since the start of the Israel-Gaza conflict and said it was investigating reports of other journalists killed, injured and reported missing. The latest incident on the Israel-Lebanon border came nearly a week after Reuters journalist Issam Abdallah was killed in southern Lebanon. Lebanon's army blamed Israel and Israel's military says it is reviewing the case. Reuters has called on Israel to conduct a "thorough, swift and transparent investigation".

Political parties in Lebanon: government has no information about Hezbollah's decisions
Ynetnews/October 20, 2023
Political sources in Lebanon said that the government in Beirut did not receive information regarding the decisions of Hezbollah or the Americans, who continue to convey clear messages about the need for Lebanon not to enter the war that is being waged between Israel and Hamas, the Lebanese newspaper Al-Jumhuriya reported. Meanwhile, Germany's foreign minister Annalina Baerbock will arrive in Beirut Friday, after foreign ministers from Iran, France and Turkey also visited the country. Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati said that talks are underway with various countries to prevent the war from reaching Lebanon. (Lior Ben Ari)

Canadian military preparing for possible evacuation from Lebanon
The Canadian Press/October 20, 2023
The Canadian Armed Forces said Friday it is getting ready for the possibility that it will need to help bring Canadians out of Lebanon, as Israel began evacuating a large town near its own northern border with that country. Lebanese militant organization Hezbollah, which has a massive arsenal of long-range rockets, has been trading fire with Israel along their shared border since the latest Israel-Hamas war began on Oct. 7. Hezbollah has also hinted that it might join the war if Israel seeks to annihilate Hamas, which has controlled the Gaza Strip since 2007. Israel is widely expected to launch a ground invasion of Gaza as part of its war against Hamas in response to its unprecedented attack on civilians in southern Israel. Maj.-Gen. Darcy Molstad, deputy commander of the Canadian Joint Operations Command, told reporters in Ottawa on Friday that military officials are in Lebanon, Israel, Cyprus and Greece to prepare for a possible civilian evacuation. On Wednesday evening, Global Affairs Canada began advising against all travel to Lebanon "due to a deteriorating security situation, civil unrest, the increased risk of terrorist attack and the ongoing armed conflict with Israel." Earlier in the week, the federal government had recommended Canadians avoid "non-essential" travel to Lebanon. Julie Sunday, the assistant deputy minister at Global Affairs Canada in charge of consular cases, said Friday that about 14,500 Canadians are registered with the federal government as being in Lebanon. She said she was pleased that more people in the country have been adding themselves to Canada's registry. She urged them to take commercial flights out of the capital city of Beirut while they still can. "These are really difficult decisions to make, and we understand that. But our best advice is (that) it's time to come back to Canada," she told reporters on Friday. The 16th military flight carrying Canadians and their kin from Tel Aviv to Athens left on Friday, with more planned for Saturday and Sunday. Officials noted a declining demand for these flights. They urged anyone seeking to get out of Israel to join one of these flights as soon as possible.
Similarly, 33 buses have left the West Bank, a Palestinian territory occupied by Israel, for Jordan, with preparations for more crossings in the coming days. In total, the Canadian government and military have helped about 1,500 people leave the region. Meanwhile, Sunday said Ottawa is aware of 430 people in the Gaza Strip who are either Canadians, permanent residents of Canada or their foreign close relatives. She said the situation in Gaza remains "incredibly fluid," but Canada has not heard of any Canadian deaths inside that Palestinian territory. It remains unclear whether Canadians and their relatives in Gaza will be able to cross into Egypt, after arrangements for such crossings last weekend fell through for all foreigners in that territory. The crossing in the south of Gaza, known as Rafah, has been damaged in airstrikes. "We're not going to tell Canadians to move to that border until we know for sure it's going to be open and that it is open for the purpose of foreign nationals being able to move out of that gate," Sunday said. She said Canadian officials in Egypt stand ready to receive Canadians if they do cross."We're making sure we're ready to catch on the other side too, and I can say that that is a big effort," she said.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 20, 2023.

Hezbollah says inflicted casualties among Israelis in response to attack on journalists, civilians
Agence France Presse/October 20, 2023
Hezbollah said Friday evening that it attacked Israeli troops and inflicted casualties in response to a deadly attack on journalists and civilians a day earlier. Israel responded by shelling the outskirts of several Lebanese border towns, with Israeli media outlets reporting "fierce" clashes on the border. "Twenty launches were identified from Lebanon toward Israeli territory" on Friday, the Israeli military said, referring to earlier attacks on Friday. Anti-tank missiles and gunfire also targeted Israeli army positions. Troops responded with air strikes, artillery bombardments and sniper fire, the Israeli military said. Hezbollah said it had struck several Israeli positions in the border area, some with guided missiles. Since the war between Israel and Hamas broke out, at least 22 people have been killed in south Lebanon. Most of them have been combatants, but at least four civilians, including a Reuters journalist, have been killed. At least three people have been killed in Israel. Hezbollah last fought a major conflict with Israel in 2006. That war left more than 1,200 dead in Lebanon, mostly civilians, and 160 in Israel, mostly soldiers.

Israel shells Lebanon after infiltrator shot at soldiers in Margaliot
Naharnet/October 20, 2023
Israel shelled Friday southern Lebanese border areas as it searched for a militant who infiltrated into Israel's northern town of Margaliot. The man shot at Israeli soldiers and managed to return to Lebanon. The Israeli army had earlier reported a shooting toward Moshav Margaliot before it said the shooter attacked its forces and left unharmed. Residents of nearby towns were asked to enter bomb shelters, as residents of the northern city of Kiryat Shmona were already evacuating after the Israeli army announced plans to evacuate it, before the Margaliot shooting incident. Israeli authorities have been steadily evacuating communities across the northern frontier, as reservists and columns of tanks and armored vehicles poured into the area. Meanwhile Hezbollah targeted Israeli posts in several border areas. On Thursday, a member of a "journalist team" covering cross-border tensions in the country's south was killed by Israeli gunfire. The team including journalists and civilians had been "cornered" by Israeli forces near the town of Houla, Lebanon's National News Agency said. Hezbollah condemned the attack on civilians and journalists and vowed to respond.

Thousands displaced from southern Lebanese border towns
Associated Press/October 20, 2023
More than 4,200 people have been displaced from villages in south Lebanon by clashes on the border with Israel, and local officials said Friday that they are ill-prepared for the much larger exodus that would ensue if the limited conflict escalates to an all-out war.
Some 1,500 of the displaced are staying in three schools in the coastal city of Tyre, about 20 kilometers (12 miles) north of the border. At one of the schools, children ran through the courtyard and women hung out clothes to dry on chairs on Friday. Mortada Mhanna, head of the disaster management unit of the municipalities in the Tyre area, said hundreds of newly displaced people are arriving each day. Some move on to stay with relatives or rent apartments, but others have no place to go besides the makeshift shelter, while Lebanon's cash-strapped government has few resources to offer. "We can make the decision to open a new school (as a shelter), but if the resources are not secured, we'll have a problem," Mhanna said. He appealed to international organizations to "give us enough supplies that if the situation evolves, we can at least give people a mattress to sleep on and a blanket."
Lebanon's Hezbollah and allied Palestinian groups in Lebanon have launched daily missile strikes on northern Israel since the outbreak of the latest Israel-Hamas war on Oct. 7, while Israel has responded by shelling border areas in south Lebanon. To date, the clashes have killed at least 22 people in Lebanon, four of them civilians. Sporadic skirmishes continued Friday while a number of airlines canceled flights to Beirut. Countries including the United States, Saudi Arabia and Germany have warned their citizens to leave Lebanon. For many of the displaced, the current tensions bring back memories of the brutal one-month war between Hezbollah and Israel in 2006, during which Israeli bombing leveled large swaths of the villages in south Lebanon and in Beirut's southern suburbs. The tactic of overwhelming force to strike civilian infrastructure as a measure of military deterrence was dubbed the "Dahiyeh Doctrine," named after the area south of the capital that was targeted. Should another full-blown war erupt between Hezbollah and Israel, "even the city of Tyre will no longer be safe ... because all of the south was subject to bombing" in 2006, Mhanna said. Among the school's temporary residents is Mustafa Tahini, whose house in the border town of Aita al Shaab was destroyed in 2006, along with most of the village. Back then, aid flowed into Lebanon from Qatar and other countries for reconstruction, but this time, Tahini said, "God knows if someone will come to help us."
"I am not a political analyst. I hope things will calm down, but the things you see in the news aren't reassuring," said Tahini, whose wife and children are staying with relatives in Beirut while he remains closer to home. Still, he said, he is mentally prepared for another war. "We've been through it before."Nasmieh Srour, 62, from the town of Dhayra has been staying in the school with her husband and two daughters for a week, along with many of the village's residents. Like Tahini, she was displaced in 2006; she is also stoic about the prospects of a wider conflict. "Maybe it will get bigger, maybe it will calm down - there's no way to know," Srour said. Edouard Beigbeder, the representative in Lebanon of UNICEF, the U.N. agency for children, said that education will be one of the main casualties if the displacement becomes protracted. Already 52 of the 300 schools in south Lebanon are closed due to the hostilities, leaving more than 8,000 children out of education in addition to those enrolled in the schools that are now being used as shelters, he said. A wider conflict would also threaten key infrastructure including electric supplies and, by extension, water supplies. "In any escalation, it is the most vulnerable and the children who are in a dire situation," Beigbeder said.

Israeli soldiers rally, locals flee as northern border heats up
Agence France Presse/October 20, 2023
Soldiers are everywhere and the last residents are hurriedly packing in the northern town of Kiryat Shmona where Israel fears Lebanon's Hezbollah could open up a second front in its war with Hamas. As smoke rises from the nearby wooded hills following the latest cross-border exchanges, soldiers in fatigues can be seen eating sandwiches on cafe terraces, buying bandages in pharmacies or emerging in groups from the bus station. In an extremely rare measure, Israeli authorities on Friday announced the evacuation of this town by the Lebanese border which is home to some 25,000 residents, many of whom have already left. Hamas militants stormed into Israel from Gaza on October 7, beginning an attack that has reportedly killed at least 1,400 people in Israeli including civilians and soldiers. Since then, more than 4,100 Palestinians, mainly civilians, have been killed in relentless Israeli bombardments, according to Gaza's Hamas-run health ministry. All the while, there have been increasing exchanges of fire along Israel's northern border between Israeli forces and Hezbollah, an Iran-backed ally of Hamas. And Hamas' armed wing has also claimed some of the cross-border strikes. "We're waiting to find out where they want us to go," 16-year-old Lianne Abutbul told AFP as her family weighed up whether to evacuate.
'Ready to fight'
In Shlomi, another border town to the west, 7,000 of its 9,000 residents have left in the past 10 days, said Yossef Luchy who heads the town council. "Here the last house is 150 meters (500 feet) from the border (area), so we had an evacuation plan and the people who were worried left," said Luchy, former head of the northern district of Israel's homefront command. On Monday, Israel's defense ministry ordered the evacuation of 28 villages and kibbutzes situated within two kilometers (about a mile) of the Blue Line, the border demarcated by the U.N. following Israel's withdrawal from southern Lebanon in 2000. Residents of other villages have also left, AFP journalists found. The Israel Democracy Institute estimates that at least 300,000 people have been evacuated from their homes in Israel since the start of the war. "Here, those who stayed are mostly former army personnel, and we are constantly preparing. We keep an eye on the shelters, we train," said Luchy. Of the 360,000 reservists called up by Israel, many have been deployed to the increasingly tense 120-kilometer (75 miles) border. One of them, who requested anonymity, told AFP that he was "ready to fight" because "the Jews have no other country."An attack on Israeli military positions near the border killed two people on Tuesday, the army said, and in southern Lebanon, at least 22 people have died in exchanges of fire. Most of the dead in Lebanon were fighters, but four were civilians, one of whom was Reuters journalist Issam Abdallah, who died in a strike that wounded six other journalists, including two from AFP.
- 'It's really scary' -
The few remaining inhabitants of Kiryat Shmona admit to having mixed feelings about staying, and are afraid when they hear sirens warning of a rocket attack. Abutbul said when Israel's Iron Dome anti-missile system intercepted rockets on Wednesday, "debris fell two blocks from my house, in a school playground." "It could have killed children, it's really scary," said the teenager, whose two brothers are currently in the army. Yaacov Kozikaro, 72, has lived near the border since 1961 and experienced two previous wars with Lebanon in 1982 and 2006, memorials of which are scattered across Israel's northern landscape. "This is neither the first nor the last war," he says with a laugh, saying he has no plans to leave, despite Israel's "bad neighbors."

Senior UK defense official says Lebanon must not be dragged into regional conflict
Naharnet/October 20, 2023
The UK Defense Senior Advisor to the Middle East and North Africa (DSAME), Air Marshal Martin Sampson, ended a two day visit to Lebanon 18-19 October 2023. This is part of his regional tour, including Egypt and Jordan -– to reassure and show support to the UK’s partners in the region including Lebanon, a British embassy statement said. Air Marshal Sampson met with Army Commander General Joseph Aoun and caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati. In his messages he reiterated the UK’s "unwavering support to the people of Lebanon and the LAF (Lebanese Army)."
In a phone call with UNIFIL Head of Mission and Force Commander, Major General Aroldo Lázaro, Air Marshal Sampson conveyed the UK’s "support to UNIFIL and its important role in maintaining calm and stability."At Hamat Air Base, Air Marshal Sampson was briefed on the many UK military training tasks in Lebanon, including the "highly successful" joint military exercise “Pegasus Cedar” which was the UK’s largest ever joint military exercise with the Lebanese Air Assault Regiment. At the end of his visit, Air Marshal Sampson said: “An important time to visit Lebanon during the current regional instability. During my meetings I reiterated the UK’s position that Lebanon must not be dragged into a regional conflict.""The LAF continues to be at the forefront of safeguarding Lebanon’s security and stability which remains a priority for the UK,” he added.

Russia advises against travel to Lebanon and Israel
Agence France Presse/October 20, 2023
Russia on Friday advised its citizens against travelling to Israel, Lebanon, Jordan and the Palestinian territories amid flaring tensions over Israel's war with Hamas. "The situation in the Middle East is heating up," the foreign ministry said. "We strongly recommend that Russian citizens refrain from travelling to the region, especially to Israel, Lebanon, Jordan and the Palestinian territories."

Qaouq: Every gunshot in South aimed at defending Lebanon first
Naharnet/October 20, 2023
Hezbollah executive council member Sheikh Nabil Qaouq on Friday stressed that all Lebanese must know that “the aggression against Gaza is an aggression against the entire region.”“The objectives of the aggression against Gaza surpass Gaza’s borders and the declared objectives, and Lebanon is the primary target of this war,” Qaouq added. “Every gunshot, every rocket and every shell that the resistance fires in the South is aimed at defending Lebanon first, and anyone defending Gaza in the region is defending himself, because everyone is being targeted,” Qaouq went on to say.
“Publicly and without any hesitation or delay, Hezbollah is in an advanced position in the face of the Israeli attacks in the South, to protect our people and in support of Gaza, and we will not care about the American and other threats,” the Hezbollah official added.

Bou Habib asks ambassadors to 'press Israel to halt escalation'
Naharnet/October 20, 2023
Caretaker Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib on Friday met with the ambassadors of Norwary, Denmark, Finland, Sweden and Canada. “I expressed Lebanon’s deep concern over the continuation of the aggression against Gaza for the fourteenth day, asking their nations to intervene through pressing Israel to halt the escalation,” Bou Habib said. “The escalation of the hate speech and incitement to violence will not spare the Western countries,” the minister warned. He had earlier met with the Belgian ambassador and warned that “should the Middle East get infected with cold, the infection will move to Europe.”

Mikati: Govt. making contacts to halt Israeli aggression
Naharnet/October 20, 2023
Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati on Friday announced that “the government is carrying out all the diplomatic and political contacts to address the situations and halt the Israeli aggression.”“In parallel, it is devising an emergency plan to confront any developments,” Mikati added, in a meeting with a delegation from the Hasbaya-Marjeyoun region. Mikati also hoped “the pressures that are being practiced on the Israeli enemy will manage to halt the aggression against Gaza and the continuous Israeli violations against Lebanese territory.”

Lebanon's Army chief meets US Congress delegation
Naharnet/October 20, 2023
Army Commander General Joseph Aoun on Friday met at his office in Yarze with a delegation of assistants of U.S. Congress members, an army statement said. The meeting was also attended by U.S. defense attache Colonel Aimee Mowry. “The discussions tackled the general situations in the country, the situations of the military institution and the challenges it is facing, in addition to the developments on the southern border,” the statement added.

Hamas says Hezbollah helping it 'without harming Lebanon'
Naharnet/October 20, 2023
Hezbollah is carrying out the “duty” of helping Hamas and the Palestinians “without harming Lebanon,” Hamas representative in Lebanon Ahmad Abdel Hadi said, in reference to Hezbollah’s daily operations against the Israeli army on Lebanon’s border.
Israel has also accused Hezbollah of allowing Hamas and the Islamic Jihad group of launching infiltration and rocket attacks from Lebanon against Israel. In an interview on MTV, Abdel Hadi added that “the Zionist entity’s existence was shaken after October 7 and today the battlefield is speaking for itself.”
“We have taken into consideration that a ground war might be one of the Zionists’ responses,” the Hamas official said. “Tens of thousands of elite fighters are prepared for a ground war and they will turn Gaza into a cemetery for the Israelis,” he added.

Belgium urges citizens to leave Lebanon
LBCI/October 20, 2023
On Friday, Belgium urged its citizens to immediately leave Lebanon due to the situation in Israel and Gaza and its potential impact on Lebanon.

The post-July 2006 war: A costly reminder
LBCI/October 20, 2023
In the aftermath of the 33-day war that Israel waged on Lebanon in July 2006, the devastating toll on the nation's infrastructure, economy, and population is vividly portrayed.
By the numbers, a report from the Finance Ministry issued two months after the war estimated the losses at LBP 2.419 billion, equivalent to $1.6 billion when Lebanon's economy was relatively stable and its currency was pegged at LBP 1,500 to the dollar.
When adjusted for 2023, these losses swell to $2.44 billion, considering Lebanon's current economic crisis, national currency devaluation, and unprecedented inflation.
Do you remember the scale of the damage inflicted on Lebanon's infrastructure and its people in 2006?
Over a million Lebanese were displaced during that war from 345 villages and towns that witnessed near-total destruction. A total of 17,853 homes were completely destroyed, with 2,686 suffering partial damage. Another 109,984 residential units were affected, making the total 130,523 housing units partially or entirely destroyed during the July war.
The damage extended beyond residential units, affecting various sectors and the entire infrastructure.
One of the most critical blows was Israel's targeting of Lebanon's main aerial gateway, Beirut Airport. The airport was closed to civilians, and its airspace was only open for international aid flights. It was not until the war's conclusion on August 17, 2006, that regular air travel resumed.
Despite initial airstrikes, the land borders remained open during the war. Lebanese citizens from the South and Bekaa regions sought refuge in Syria to escape the war.
The war's impacts were extensive, with 91 major bridges, 42 ferries, and secondary bridges and 620 kilometers of roads destroyed. More than that, in the July War, Israel deliberately cut the country's ties.
In 2006, an Arab League meeting was held to support Lebanon, but currently, Lebanon does not have a President or a government. At that time, Lebanon made Arab officials cry in grief over its reality.
When the guns fell silent, the time came for reconstruction. Lebanon received support from various Arab and international donors, and the bill for reconstruction reached approximately $2.3 billion. Major contributors included:
Saudi Arabia: $590 million (deposited into the Banque du Liban)
Qatar: $300 million
Kuwait: $82 million in aid, along with $185 million for projects (a total of $267 million)
Iran: $200 million for rebuilding the southern suburbs
The United Arab Emirates: $85 million ($15 million in aid and $70 million for projects)
Oman: $50 million
Iraq: $37 million
The Arab Fund for Economic and Social Development: $10 million
Foreign contributions include:
The United States: $230 million
Spain: $25 million
Italy: $7 million, with an additional $10 million received through the United Nations and the Lebanese Recovery Fund.
Australia: $16 million
Canada: $12 million
Sweden: $10 million
Several other foreign nations also contributed, while numerous projects were financed and executed by various Arab and international organizations to rehabilitate different sectors and the infrastructure.
Even a third iteration of the Paris Conference was held, under the invitation of then-French President Jacques Chirac, to support Lebanon after the destruction wrought by the July war in a country already suffering from an economic crisis that was worsening year after year.
In Paris III, pledges of assistance for Lebanon reached a value of $7.5 billion. However, today, most of these nations have distanced themselves from Lebanon.
As the current war escalates, Lebanon has received warnings that being dragged into a war with Israel would incur a far greater cost than what it bore in July 2006, potentially turning it into a second Gaza.
Lebanon's economy and currency are in ruins, as the country is already in a state of collapse. Its only sources of income are remittances from its diaspora, and limited tourism revived in the past two years, as Lebanon lost trust in the East and West.
Given the prevailing international isolation, is there any rational belief that the nations that once stood by Lebanon in July 2006 would rush to its aid or convene conferences for its reconstruction? If it were to become a second Gaza, who would be there to help rebuild Lebanon?

How Hezbollah could draw US troops into a wider war in the Middle East
Tom Porter/Business Insider/October 20, 2023
Blame game follows Gaza hospital disasterScroll back up to restore default view.
The Israel-Hamas war could spark a wider regional conflict in the Middle East.
Iran and Hezbollah are menacing Israel with attacks.
The US could be drawn in to defend Israel if events spiral, say experts.
President Joe Biden this week touched down in Israel as the Middle East was engulfed in new turmoil.
Biden had intended the trip to be a show of solidarity with Israel in the wake of the October 7 Hamas terrorist attacks, in which 1,300 Israelis were killed.
But an attack on a hospital in Gaza hours before Biden's arrival drew fury across the region, and intensified fears that the conflict between Israel and Hamas could escalate into a broader regional war.
On Tuesday, Israel's national security advisor predicted that the US would get "involved" if the Gaza war escalated to the point where Iran and Hezbollah joined.
Michael DiMino, a researcher at Defense Priorities who worked as a counterterrorism analyst at the CIA, told Regional Statecraft that the possibility of direct American involvement is now "higher than most people realize."
Tensions are escalating
Hamas and several Middle Eastern countries blamed Israel for the attack on the Al-Ahli hospital in Gaza City, which the UN said killed several hundred people. In response, Israel released data that it claimed showed that a misfired Palestinian militant organization's rocket caused the explosion, an assessment backed by Biden in remarks after his arrival.
But Hamas' chief allies — Iran and the Lebanon-based Hezbollah militia — have been seeking to stir rage in the Muslim world over the hospital explosion.
Hezbollah called for a "day of rage" in the region in the wake of the hospital attack, and Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi said that the flames from the hospital attack would "soon engulf" Israel.
They'd threatened to attack Israel in support of Hamas before the hospital attack, with clashes in recent days between Hezbollah and Israeli forces on Israel's northern border intensifying. In the West Bank, tensions have been rising, with around 60 people killed in clashes and fears of a new uprising.
Israel has deployed most of its forces on the Gaza border amid signs it's preparing a land invasion. However, some analysts are warning that they may be spread too thin to repel attacks on multiple fronts.
There are also concerns, voiced among others by the former head of the UK's MI6 intelligence agency, that Israel is being lured into a trap that could drag the US into a wider regional conflict.
If it invades Gaza its forces could get bogged down in intense urban warfare at a high cost in casualties, then hit with an attack from Hezbollah from the north.
It's a crisis that echoes the 1973 Yom Kipur War, when Israel was simultaneously attacked by Egypt and Syria and almost overwhelmed.
Multiple attacks on Israel could draw the US into the war
Beirut
The US has already deployed two aircraft carriers just off the coast of Israel as a warning to Hezbollah and Iran, and has pledged logistical and intelligence support to Israel.
Mat Burrows, an analyst with Washington, DC, based think tank the Stimson Center, told Insider that the US would likely be drawn into the conflict if Israeli forces were struggling to repel attacks on multiple fronts.
"I could only see US getting militarily involved if Israel proper was clearly endangered, invaded by Hezbollah from the north and dealing with a severe uprising in the West Bank and an unfinished operation in Gaza. Then, I could see US fighters and bombers taking out Hezbollah sites in Lebanon or crippling arm supplies from Iran," he said.
In Hezbollah, Israel faces an opponent that is better armed and trained than the Gaza-based Hamas militia. The group is armed with around 130,000 rockets, including long-range missiles, that could penetrate Israel's "Iron Dome" air defense system and strike its cities, said the Missile Threat research group.
Taking out the launchers Hezbollah uses to fire the missiles could be among the US' core missions if it chooses to step in and defend Israel, experts told the AFP news wire.
Though it's unlikely Iran, Hezbollah's chief backer, wants to get directly involved in a conflict with the US, it would love to exploit the turmoil caused by the Hamas attacks to further damage Israel.
"They want to pressure Israel via Hezbollah when Israel is already stretched and distracted," said Burrows. "However, their attacks from Lebanon and Israel's counterattacks could escalate up to the level of a full-scale war, provoking US involvement," he remarked.
Iran's main international backers, Russia and China, have much to gain from a renewed conflict in the Middle East, say analysts, with the Kremlin keen to distract Western attention from its invasion of Ukraine, and China long harboring ambitions to seize control of Taiwan.
"As Iran has good relationships of fluctuating dependence on both China and Russia it seems almost duty bound to overreact to any US involvement," Robert Dover, an expert on intelligence and security at the University of Hull, told Insider. "This will likely be in the form of supplying Hezbollah and pressuring them to aggressively assert themselves on the Lebanese front."
"Direct Iranian involvement seems unlikely at the moment, but if it reaches the stage where it plausible deniability of Iranian involvement is breached then the situation in the Middle East has gone out of control, if it hasn't already," he said.
A last resort
For now, though, Stimson Center's Burrows said the likelihood of America putting "boots on the ground" and deploying troops in Israel appeared remote, not least because of domestic opposition in the US to involvement in another costly and damaging military operation in the region.
And if the US were to get involved in the conflict in defense of Israel, this could provoke a new wave of attacks by Iran's allies.
Striking Hezbollah targets in Syria could lead to retaliation from Russia, a Syrian ally, with the Institute for the Study of War, a think tank that analyses global conflict, saying that Iran, Russia, and Syria were already seeking to expel US forces from the country. Or pro-Iranian groups in countries such as Iraq, Syria, and Yemen could attempt to attack US sites in the region such as military bases.
"They would find it difficult to strike Israel directly," Clive Jones, an expert on Israel and the Middle East at Durham University, told the AFP news wire. "But they could attack American interests in the region."
DiMino, the former CIA analyst, told The Responsible Statecraft blog, that such an escalation could lead to pressure from Israel for the US to strike Iran itself.
"Obviously, that would be a disaster for all parties involved, not least the United States," DiMino said. "I don't think that this administration wants to do that, but I do think once these events start to roll together and the decision matrices and the timelines that those decisions have to be made on get narrower and narrower, that these kinds of things can happen."

Criticism In Lebanon: The Government Has No Authority; Iran And Hizbullah Decide On Matters Of War And Peace
MEMRI/October 20, 2023
Iran, Lebanon, Palestine | Special Dispatch No. 10891
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/123354/123354/
The ongoing exchanges of fire between Hizbullah and Israel on the Lebanon-Israel border have increased the concern in Lebanon that the country may become embroiled in the war between Israel and Hamas.[1] Although Lebanon's Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati repeatedly stated in the recent days that he is working to keep Lebanon out of the war, he also explicitly admitted that his government is weak, saying, "the decision regarding war and peace is not in my hands or in the hands of the government."[2]
Mikati's statement sparked outrage in Lebanon and criticism of the government's loss of control. Senior politicians and journalists accused Hizbullah of usurping the sovereignty of the state and disregarding the fact that Lebanon cannot withstand a war within its borders in addition to its severe internal crises. These figures demanded that the government declare its firm opposition to Lebanon's involvement in the war instead of shrugging off its responsibility.
The following are some of the statements made in this context:
Lebanese Politicians: The Decision On Lebanon's Involvement In The War Is In The Hands Of Hizbullah And Iran
MP Elias Hankach, a member of the Kataeb parliamentary bloc, told the Voice of Lebanon radio station on October 16, 2023: "Lebanon is currently on the brink of war because the decision is not in the hands of the Lebanese authorities. This is because Hizbullah has destroyed the state, its sovereignty and its institutions and has become the one who determines its future and decides about matters of war and peace. We are currently at a historic juncture, with Lebanon unable to take a decision to extend its control and [deploy] its army throughout its territory and refrain from being dragged into a war with Israel."[3]
MP Fadi Karam of the Lebanese Forces party said on October 16 on Radio Free Lebanon: "The decision on war [in Lebanon] is currently in the hands of Iran. [The principle of] 'the unity of the fronts'[4] means revoking the sovereignty and the independence of Iraq, Syria and Lebanon."[5]
On the same day, the Christian Saydat Al-Jabal association issued a statement in a similar vein: "Hizbullah insists on firmly showing the Lebanese people that it controls their fate since it is the one that [decides] whether to start a war with Israel or not… What we explicitly demand of the Mikati government is to clearly oppose Lebanon becoming involved in the Gaza war due to a military action by Hizbullah, Hamas or any other organization on Lebanese soil. Any such action will be a blatant violation of Lebanon's sovereignty…"[6]
Lebanese Journalist: Lebanese Officials Must Firmly Oppose Lebanon's Involvement In War Against Israel
In his October 17 column in the Lebanese daily Al-Nahar, Ali Hamada criticized the Lebanese government for resigning to the fact that Hizbullah will make the decision whether to involve Lebanon in the current war between Israel and Hamas. He wrote: "In less than 20 days, Hizbullah has succeeded in exposing the shame of the Lebanese government and most of the cadre controlling the state, who have all completely surrendered to Hizbullah's will regarding the decisions surrounding the war with Israel. Those following [the matter] can easily inspect the series of events that have unfolded since the beginning of Operation Al-Aqsa Flood on October 7, particularly on [Lebanon's] southern border with Israel, and see that Hizbullah has led Lebanon to the brink of all-out war with Israel. [Moreover,] Palestinian factions that have joined the 'Unity of Fronts Operations Room' have been brought by Hizbullah into the southern arena, which is considered to be the operational area of UNIFIL forces.
"Hizbullah did not miss an opportunity to humiliate the state, its sovereignty, and its security services one hundred times a day by showing that they are helpless and are servants of an agenda dictated by Tehran. So much so that Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati, who is known as a person who cuts corners as much as possible, admitted that the decision regarding war has been removed from the hands [of the government] and that the government is [nothing more than] an observer, having nothing to do with what is happening.
"Of course, we were already aware of the true nature of the situation, but we did not think that the state's top officials have gotten to the point of completely abandoning their national, ethical, moral, and legal obligations. The contacts with U.S. State Department officials and with several European leaders that Mikati announced yesterday [October 16] are not what is needed, because the U.S. and its European partners are not the problem, but rather Hizbullah, which has not been deterred from repeatedly humiliating Mikati, the government, and the entire political establishment that does not belong to the resistance. The even greater tragedy is that all these humiliations achieved nothing and did not arouse the conscience of the defeated leaders or of those who collaborate [with Hizbullah], who are happy for the entire country to be on the brink of a war that will destroy everything.
"We are fully aware that Hizbullah will not take heed of our criticism and is not at all interested in it. But what we want is for the government, and particularly the Prime Minister, to take the necessary national stance. We do not mean the weak stance that Prime Minister Mikati expressed yesterday, but rather an outspoken stance that opposes Lebanese involvement in the war and the trampling of the state and of the will of the Lebanese majority, which opposes the current situation of involvement [in the war]. The important thing is for one of our leaders to stand up and say a resounding 'No.'
"The obligation of solidarity with the Palestinians does not justify the looming war that Hizbullah is involved in on the border, nor does it in any way justify the south turning into a new 'Hamas land'…
"Our experience thus far with this war… must be an alarm to most Lebanese people and must arouse them from their deep sleep, since those who control Lebanon this way are not distancing it from internal disputes or from civil war – rather, they are digging the grave for the homeland and for what is left of the state…"[7]
Lebanese Journalist: Iran Is Threatening Israel With War At Lebanon's Expense
Nayla Tueni, CEO of the Lebanese Al-Nahar daily, wrote in an article published on October 16, 2023 that Hizbullah and Iran are dragging Lebanon into the Gaza war without taking any heed of its dire situation. She wrote: "There is no doubt or disagreement regarding the massacres being carried out by Israel against Palestinian civilians. Admiration and support [for the Palestinians] are an obligation, not just for Lebanon but for all the countries and communities that believe in the supremacy of the Palestinian cause. However, what is certain is that Lebanon has paid a much higher price than others have [in this context]…
"Today, Iran is threatening Israel, but its threats regarding the conflict will not be actualized on its own land or through its own people. Iran isn't toying with its own security or endangering its own infrastructure. It won't pay with [the blood] of its own best sons, and it will not expose its own children to airstrikes and death… The truth must be told, and it is that Lebanon will not be able to withstand this conflict, and that its residents don't want a military confrontation unless war is forced upon them. Yet, what we have seen recently [in Lebanon] is like a war cry, along with efforts to grow stronger, provoke, spark conflicts – even limited ones – on the border, to reactivate the Palestinian element there, and to send volatile messages...
"The pundits of the resistance axis are talking to the Lebanese about war and readiness to fight, instead of calling for calm, for discretion, and for trying to contain [the situation]. It looks like they are cheering for war and for a party [i.e., Hizbullah] that lives off of never-ending wars. [This is a party] which, instead of adhering to resistance as it was defined, under the pressure, in the guidelines of the [Lebanese] governments [i.e., resistance in defense of Lebanon],[8] went to Syria to defend the [Al-Assad] regime, and now it feels the need to intervene in the Israeli-Palestinian war – all while completely ignoring the existence of the [Lebanese] state, its prestige, and the shared homeland."[9]
[1] See MEMRI Special Dispatch No. 10852, Lebanese Politicians To Hizbullah: Don't Involve Lebanon In A War Against Israel, October 11, 2023.
[2] Al-Akhbar (Lebanon), October 16, 2023.
[3] Al-Sharq Al-Awsat (Lebanon), October 16, 2023.
[4] For several years, Iran-backed organizations including Hizbullah, Hamas, and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) have been speaking about uniting their fronts in any future conflict with Israel. In late August 2023, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Abdollahian held meetings in Beirut with Hizbullah, Hamas, and PIJ leaders, at which the importance of coordination between the "resistance movements" in Lebanon and Palestine was intensively addressed. See MEMRI Daily Brief No. 517 - Signs Of Possible War In September-October -August 31, 2023.
[5] Rll.com.lb, October 16, 2023.
[6] Saydeteljabal.org, October 16, 2023.
[7] Al-Nahar (Lebanon), October 17, 2023.
[8] Under pressure from Hizbullah and its political allies, all the Lebanese governments formed in the recent years approved guidelines that permit Hizbullah to hold on to its weapons in order to wage resistance. This was done by including a clause that articulated the right of "the Lebanese people, army and resistance [i.e., Hizbullah]" to liberate the Shab'a Farms, the Shuba Peaks and the Lebanese part of Rajar village, and to defend Lebanon from any aggression and insist on its right to its water.
[9] Al-Nahar (Lebanon), October 16, 2023.
https://www.memri.org/reports/criticism-lebanon-government-has-no-authority-iran-and-hizbullah-decide-matters-war-and

Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on October 20-21/2023
Israel briefing: Five key developments in the Israel-Hamas war today
Our Foreign Staff/The Telegraph/October 20, 2023
Leading the headlines today is the threat posed by Lebanon on Israel’s northern border. ‌Meanwhile, Rishi Sunak, the Prime Minister, is set to meet with Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, a field marshal, in Egypt as part of his tour of the Middle East.
Here are the five key developments this morning.
1‌. Israel orders 20,000 civilians to evacuate
Israel’s army is to evacuate the city of Kiryat Shmona, after days of clashes with Hezbollah fighters along the border with Lebanon.‌ The northern city – which housed around 20,000 people before the current conflict – will be emptied after rocket attacks by Hezbollah and allied Palestinian factions intensified in recent days.‌ ”A short while ago, the Northern Command informed the mayor of the city of the decision. The plan will be managed by the local authority, the Ministry of Tourism and the Ministry of Defence,” the military said.‌ The Iran-backed Hezbollah and its allies have traded cross-border fire with Israel since Hamas gunmen stormed the southern border.‌
2. Fears of a third front‌
Israeli officials fear that rising violence in the West Bank could open a “third front” to the conflict.‌ Lieutenant-Colonel Jonathan Conricus told Reuters that Hamas is attempting to “engulf Israel in a two or three-front war”, including the Lebanese border and the West Bank.‌ “The threat is elevated,” he said, adding that the military is on high alert in the area.‌
Israeli officials fear a third front could open up from the West Bank
Unrest in the West Bank has flared since Israel began bombarding Gaza and clashing with Hezbollah on the Lebanese border. ‌More than 70 Palestinians have been killed in West Bank violence since Oct 7 and Israel has arrested more than 800 people.
‌3. Israel strikes ‘hundreds of targets’ overnight‌
The Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) hit “over a hundred operational targets” overnight, killing a senior Hamas terrorist. ‌“During the night, fighter jets attacked over a hundred operational targets of the terrorist organisations in the Gaza Strip, destroying tunnel shafts, munitions warehouses and dozens of operational headquarters,” the IDF wrote on Twitter. ‌The senior Hamas member took part in the “murderous terrorist operations in the Gaza Strip” and was in the naval force of Hamas, the IDF said. ‌The IDF added that “a terrorist squad associated with the terrorist organisation’s air force that planned to launch missiles at an aircraft was foiled”. ‌Rishi Sunak will travel to Egypt on Oct 20 as part of a trip to the Middle East. ‌The Prime Minister wants to press his message that there should be no escalation of violence in the region after the Hamas attack on Israel. ‌Mr Sunak was the latest Western leader to visit Jerusalem on Thursday to show support for Israel and to try to negotiate a way to secure the release of hostages taken by Hamas and ease the provision of humanitarian aid to people in Gaza. ‌The crossing between Egypt and Gaza is not expected to open on Oct 20, according to CNN.‌There had been speculation that the Rafah crossing, vital for aid to cross into Gaza amid the conflict with Israel, would open shortly. ‌But a source familiar with the area said the situation along the border is “really volatile”. ‌“I would not put money on those trucks going through,” they told CNN. ‌It is thought that the first set of trucks carrying humanitarian aid will cross over the border this weekend. Broaden your horizons with award-winning British journalism. Try The Telegraph free for 1 month, then enjoy 1 year for just $9 with our US-exclusive offer.

Israel says two Americans held hostage by Hamas, a mother and daughter, have been released
KHAN YOUNIS, Gaza Strip (AP)/October 20, 2023
Hamas on Friday freed an American woman and her teenage daughter it had held hostage in Gaza, Israel said, the first such release from among the roughly 200 people the militant group abducted from Israel during its Oct. 7 rampage. The two Americans, Judith Raanan and her 17-year-old daughter Natalie, were out of the Gaza Strip and in the hands of the Israeli military, an army spokesman said. Hamas said it released them for humanitarian reasons in an agreement with the Qatari government. The release comes amid growing expectations of an expected ground offensive that Israel says is aimed at rooting out Hamas militants who rule the Gaza Strip. Israel said Friday it does not plan to take long-term control over the tiny territory, home to some 2.3 million people. As the Israeli military punished Gaza with airstrikes, authorities inched closer to bringing aid from Egypt to desperate families and hospitals. Fighting between Israel and militants in neighboring Lebanon also raged, prompting evacuations of Lebanese and Israeli border towns as fears of a widening conflict grew. Judith and Natalie Ranaan had been on a trip from their home in suburban Chicago to Israel to celebrate the Jewish holidays, the family said. They were in the kibbutz of Nahal Oz, near Gaza, on Oct. 7 -- Simchat Torah, a festive Jewish holiday – when Hamas and other militants stormed into southern Israeli towns, killing hundreds and abducting 203 others. The family had heard nothing from them since the attack and were later told by U.S. and Israeli officials that they were being held in Gaza, Natalie’s brother Ben said. “I am overjoyed that they will soon be reunited with their family, who has been wracked with fear,” U.S. President Joe Biden said. The International Committee of the Red Cross, which transported the freed Americans from Gaza to Israel, said their release was “a sliver of hope.”Relatives of other captives welcomed the release and appealed for the others to be freed. “We call on world leaders and the international community to exert their full power in order to act for the release of all the hostages and missing,’’ the statement said.
Qatar said it would continue its dialogue with Israel and Hamas in hopes of winning the release of all hostages “with the ultimate aim of de-escalating the current crisis and restoring peace.”
Israeli military spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said Israel was continuing to work to return hostages and find the missing, and its goals had not changed. “We are continuing the war against Hamas and ready for the next stage of the war,” he said.
A potential Israeli ground assault is likely to lead to a dramatic escalation in casualties on both sides in urban fighting. More than 1,400 people in Israel have been killed in the war — mostly civilians slain during the Hamas incursion. More than 4,100 people have been killed in Gaza, according to the Health Ministry run by Hamas. That includes a disputed number of people who died in a hospital explosion earlier this week. Speaking to lawmakers about Israel’s long-term plans for Gaza, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant laid out a three-stage plan that seemed to suggest that Israel did not intend to reoccupy the territory it left in 2005. First, Israeli airstrikes and “maneuvering” — a presumed reference to a ground attack — would aim to root out Hamas. Next will come a lower intensity fight to defeat remaining pockets of resistance. And, finally, a new “security regime” will be created in Gaza along with “the removal of Israel’s responsibility for life in the Gaza Strip,” Gallant said.
Gallant did not say who Israel expected to run Gaza if Hamas is toppled or what the new security regime would entail. Israel occupied Gaza from 1967 until 2005, when it pulled up settlements and withdrew soldiers. Two years later, Hamas took over. Some Israelis blame the withdrawal from Gaza for the sporadic violence that has persisted since then. The humanitarian crisis has worsened for Gaza’s civilians every day since Israel halted entry of supplies two weeks ago, depleting fuel, food, water and medicine. Two days after Israel announced a deal to allow Egypt to send in aid, the border remained closed Friday as Egypt repaired the Rafah crossing, damaged by Israeli strikes. Over a million people have been displaced in Gaza. Many heeded Israel’s orders to evacuate the northern part of the sealed-off enclave on the coast of the Mediterranean Sea. But Israel has continued to bomb areas in southern Gaza where Palestinians had been told to seek safety. Although Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called areas in the south “safe zones” earlier this week, Israeli military spokesman Nir Dinar said Friday: “There are no safe zones.”Some Palestinians who had fled from the north appeared to be going back because of bombings and difficult living conditions in the south, said Ravina Shamdasani, spokesperson for the U.N. human rights office.
Gaza’s overwhelmed hospitals were rationing their dwindling resources .
Generators in Shifa Hospital, Gaza’s largest, were operating at the lowest setting to conserve fuel while providing power to vital departments such as intensive care, hospital director Mohammed Abu Selmia said. Others worked in darkness.
“I don’t know how long (the fuel) will last. Every day we evaluate the situation,” he said. The lack of medical supplies and water are making it difficult to treat the mass of victims from the Israeli strikes, he said.
The Palestine Red Crescent Society said it had received a threat from the Israeli military to bomb Al-Quds Hospital and has demanded the hospital’s immediate evacuation. The Gaza City hospital has more than 400 patients and thousands who of displaced civilians who sought refuge on its grounds, it said. Work continued Friday to repair the road at the Rafah crossing with Egypt, Gaza’s only entry point not controlled by Israel. Trucks unloaded gravel, and bulldozers and other equipment was used to fill in large craters.
A U.S. official who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss a rapidly changing situation said aid had been delayed because of ongoing road repairs, and that it was expected to move across the border Saturday. More than 200 trucks and some 3,000 tons of aid were positioned near the crossing. Israel said the supplies could only go to civilians and that it would “thwart” any diversions by Hamas. It was unclear if fuel for the hospital generators would be allowed to enter. U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres visited the crossing Friday and appealed for the quick movement of aid into Gaza, calling it “the difference between life and death.”Israel has evacuated its own communities near Gaza and Lebanon, putting residents up in hotels elsewhere in the country. The Defense Ministry announced evacuation plans Friday for Kiryat Shmona, a town of more than 20,000 residents near the Lebanese border. Three Israelis including a 5-year-old girl were wounded in a rocket attack there Thursday, according to Israeli health services.
Lebanon’s Hezbollah militant group, which has a massive arsenal of long-range rockets, has traded fire with Israel along the border on a near-daily basis and hinted it might join the war if Israel seeks to annihilate Hamas. Iran supports both armed groups. The violence in Gaza has also sparked protests across the region, including in Arab countries allied with the U.S. Palestinians in Gaza reported heavy airstrikes in Khan Younis, a town in the territory’s south, and ambulances carrying men, women and children streamed into the local Nasser Hospital. Late Thursday, an Israeli airstrike hit a Greek Orthodox church in Gaza City housing displaced Palestinians. Gaza’s Health Ministry said 16 Palestinian Christians were killed. The military said it had targeted a Hamas command center nearby, causing damage to a church wall
The Greek Orthodox Patriarchy of Jerusalem condemned the attack and said it would “not abandon its religious and humanitarian duty” to provide assistance. Palestinian militants have launched unrelenting rocket attacks into Israel — more than 6,900 since Oct. 7, according to Israel — and tensions have flared in the Israeli-occupied West Bank. Israel has targeted militants in raids across the occupied territory. On Friday, two Palestinian teenagers were killed in clashes in the West Bank, where more than 80 Palestinians have been killed over the past two weeks.

Israel briefing: Five key developments in the Israel-Hamas war on day 14
The Telegraph/October 20, 2023
Leading the headlines today is the threat posed by Lebanon on Israel’s northern border.
‌Meanwhile, Rishi Sunak, the Prime Minister, is set to meet with Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, a field marshal, in Egypt as part of his tour of the Middle East.
Here are the five key developments this morning.
1‌. Israel orders 20,000 civilians to evacuate
Israel’s army is to evacuate the city of Kiryat Shmona, after days of clashes with Hezbollah fighters along the border with Lebanon.‌
The northern city – which housed around 20,000 people before the current conflict – will be emptied after rocket attacks by Hezbollah and allied Palestinian factions intensified in recent days.‌
”A short while ago, the Northern Command informed the mayor of the city of the decision. The plan will be managed by the local authority, the Ministry of Tourism and the Ministry of Defence,” the military said.‌
The Iran-backed Hezbollah and its allies have traded cross-border fire with Israel since Hamas gunmen stormed the southern border.‌
2. Fears of a third front‌
Israeli officials fear that rising violence in the West Bank could open a “third front” to the conflict.‌ Lieutenant-Colonel Jonathan Conricus told Reuters that Hamas is attempting to “engulf Israel in a two or three-front war”, including the Lebanese border and the West Bank.‌
“The threat is elevated,” he said, adding that the military is on high alert in the area.‌
Unrest in the West Bank has flared since Israel began bombarding Gaza and clashing with Hezbollah on the Lebanese border.
‌More than 70 Palestinians have been killed in West Bank violence since Oct 7 and Israel has arrested more than 800 people.
‌3. Israel strikes ‘hundreds of targets’ overnight‌
The Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) hit “over a hundred operational targets” overnight, killing a senior Hamas terrorist. ‌“During the night, fighter jets attacked over a hundred operational targets of the terrorist organisations in the Gaza Strip, destroying tunnel shafts, munitions warehouses and dozens of operational headquarters,” the IDF wrote on Twitter.
‌The senior Hamas member took part in the “murderous terrorist operations in the Gaza Strip” and was in the naval force of Hamas, the IDF said. ‌The IDF added that “a terrorist squad associated with the terrorist organisation’s air force that planned to launch missiles at an aircraft was foiled”.
4. Sunak to travel to Egypt
‌Rishi Sunak will travel to Egypt on Oct 20 as part of a trip to the Middle East.
‌The Prime Minister wants to press his message that there should be no escalation of violence in the region after the Hamas attack on Israel. ‌Mr Sunak was the latest Western leader to visit Jerusalem on Thursday to show support for Israel and to try to negotiate a way to secure the release of hostages taken by Hamas and ease the provision of humanitarian aid to people in Gaza.
5. Rafah crossing unlikely to open
‌The crossing between Egypt and Gaza is not expected to open on Oct 20, according to CNN. ‌There had been speculation that the Rafah crossing, vital for aid to cross into Gaza amid the conflict with Israel, would open shortly. ‌But a source familiar with the area said the situation along the border is “really volatile”. ‌“I would not put money on those trucks going through,” they told CNN. ‌It is thought that the first set of trucks carrying humanitarian aid will cross over the border this weekend.

UN chief visits Egypt's Rafah crossing ahead of Gaza aid delivery
Agence France Presse/October 20, 2023
U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres paid a visit to the Egyptian side of the Rafah border crossing with Gaza on Friday to oversee preparations for the delivery of aid to the war-torn enclave. Cargo planes and trucks have been bringing aid to the crossing for days, but so far none has been delivered to Gaza, which Israel has besieged and bombed for 13 days in response to a deadly cross-border attack by Hamas militants on October 7.

Biden says Gaza aid likely to cross in 'next 24 to 48 hours'
Agence France Presse/October 20, 2023
U.S. President Joe Biden said Friday he believed the first trucks carrying aid to Gaza would come through the Rafah crossing from Egypt within the next two days. "I believe in the next 24 to 48 hours the first 20 trucks will come across the border," Biden said as he met European Union chiefs at the White House. Biden said that he had a commitment from Israel and from Egypt's president to let the aid through but the "highway had to be repaved, and it was in very bad shape."

With eyes of the world on Gaza, Iran’s ‘axis of resistance’ is quietly moving in for the kill
Paul Nuki/The Telegraph/October 20, 2023
The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington think tank, has updated a web page called Israel-Hamas war (Iran updates) every day since the Oct 7 massacre in the south of Israel. The page, essentially a diary, does not emote on the fighting itself (“because these activities are well-covered in Western media”) but coldly lists the activities of Hamas and all other Iranian-backed combatants in the region. The picture that emerges is not the myopic one painted by TV news crews with their cameras fixed on Gaza, but of a wider battle plan laid out on a field commander’s table. Shorne of the noise of war, you might think this less worrying. But the reverse is true. The diary shows that, from the morning of Oct 7, well-equipped Iranian-backed militia have been massing, pincer-like, on Israel’s borders. “Twenty attacks from Lebanon into Israeli territory… Hezbollah recalling its cadres from abroad… clashes on the West Bank up by 470 per cent… Iranian-backed militias in Iraq hitting US troops … up to 500 Iraqi Popular Mobilisation Forces arrived in Syria and Lebanon…” – the list goes on and on. Sima Shine, an Iran specialist who served as head of research at the intelligence division of Mossad, has not been a hawk by Israeli standards but is recalibrating her view now. “There are those in Israel that think everything is Iran. I don’t belong to them. But unfortunately it might be that in some cases they were more correct than me,” she said. Ms Shine added that it had been evident for more than a year that Iran was pulling together the disparate militias it funds across the Levant into a more cohesive and co-ordinated force; a force that Iran itself refers to as its “axis of resistance” or “resistance front”. It has been shaped, said Ms Shine, by Esmail Qaani, the commander of Iran’s Quds Force, the division of its Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) responsible for extra-territorial military and clandestine operations. It is not just a matter of like-minded fanatics reading the tea leaves and acting broadly in unison but something more formal and strategic. “They’ve created a war room in Beirut. They are meeting there the Palestinians, Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Hezbollah, and the IRGC. They were meeting in Lebanon and now also have a foothold in Syria in order to consolidate,” said Ms Shine. “We see Qaani has been visiting all the time – Iraq, Syria, Lebanon; Iraq, Syria, Lebanon. Always organising.”
‘Focus on ground assaults’
At the same time, Iran has been pushing its proxies to focus on ground assaults of the sort staged by Hamas on Oct 7. In an interview published on the Supreme Leaders website in August last year, IRGC commander Major General Hossein Salami called for ”infantry” in the West Bank to conduct more ground operations against Israeli security forces to stoke unrest. “Missiles are excellent for deterrence or for waging static wars. [But] they do not liberate the lands,” he said. To achieve the Palestinians’ long-stated goal of destroying Israel and supplanting it with a state of Palestine, they must move beyond isolated terrorist assaults and missile barrages. As these groups now prepare themselves in Lebanon, Syria, the West Bank and Gaza, questions are being asked, not just about how Israeli intelligence misread Hamas’s intentions, but over what happens once the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) moves on Gaza. That move, which must surely happen in the next few days if Israeli voters are to be assuaged, could spark a much wider blaze in the region. This will be the “first big test” of the “axis of resistance”, said Ms Shine. By Iran’s own account, “we’ll be facing a multi-dimensional war. It will not only be on one front but on multiple fronts”. The north, the south and the west. Ms Shine said the misjudgment in the build-up to the Oct 7 attack was not a military one – many of Hamas’s preparations were observed in real time – but a political one. Money was flowing into Gaza and living standards were improving.
“Everybody was happy with the concept of feed the beast and the beast would remain quiet,” she said. “That was the belief. And I admit it, I too was also believing that… But you know, this is the Western way of looking at life – and it’s a huge mistake”.
A similar conundrum now hangs over Israel’s response to the Oct 7 attack.
Wider conflagration
With cruise missiles already coming up the Red Sea from Yemen, rockets being fired from Lebanon and lethal clashes taking place on the West Bank, no one knows better than the IDF that the planned ground assault on Gaza could spark a much wider conflagration.
Yet Israel believes it has little choice but to move into Gaza and neutralise Hamas as a military force. “We gave it a chance but we cannot allow it. You can’t live under the threat of a sword all the time from both fronts. We will have to take care in the northern arena one day. We can’t live like that. But first let’s eliminate this,” one senior Israeli security official was quoted as saying this week of the move to destroy Hamas in Gaza. The US has sent two aircraft carrier battle groups to the eastern Mediterranean to provide “a strong signal of deterrence” to others who might be tempted to join the conflict.
Ms Shine said the carrier groups have long-range offensive capabilities but that the intention is that they are there as a deterrent; to draw a red line over the opening of a second front. She hopes it will work but, once bitten, is now cautious. I don’t know if it will succeed,” she said. “If not, well… [Joe] Biden can be a huge surprise. Broaden your horizons with award-winning British journalism. Try The Telegraph free for 1 month, then enjoy 1 year for just $9 with our US-exclusive offer.

Powerful Saudi prince breaks ranks to condemn Hamas
Sophia Yan/The Telegraph/October 20, 2023
An influential Saudi prince has issued a strong condemnation of Hamas in a rare rebuke from one of the Middle East’s main power brokers.
Prince Turki al-Faisal, a former Saudi ambassador to the UK and US, said he preferred “civil insurrection and disobedience” to the murderous tactics adopted by the Palestinian terror group. “I categorically condemn Hamas’s targeting of civilian targets of any age or gender as it is accused of,” Prince al-Faisal said in a speech at the Baker Institute for Public Policy, a US think tank housed at Rice University in Texas.
“But equally, I condemn Israel’s indiscriminate bombing of Palestinian innocent civilians in Gaza and the attempt to forcibly drive them into Sinai,” he added, citing Israel’s recent bombardment of the enclave and order for its residents to flee south towards Egypt ahead of an expected ground offensive. Prince al-Faisal’s remarks underline recent comments from Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and indicate Riyadh may still be amenable to a historic normalisation deal with Israel, despite having put on hold talks amid the current war.
Last week, the Crown Prince “asserted the Kingdom’s opposition to any form of civilian targeting and the loss of innocent lives” in a carefully worded statement.
On Thursday, during a meeting with British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak in the Saudi capital, he warned of “dangerous repercussions” should the war expand.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has asserted his Kingdom’s ‘opposition to any form of civilian targeting and the loss of innocent lives’
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has asserted his Kingdom’s ‘opposition to any form of civilian targeting and the loss of innocent lives’ - Hamad Al Kaabi/Reuters
The Crown Prince has staked his name on a major economic transformation – a vision for the future of his own country, and of the Middle East, which would revamp the region and support political stability. Such plans underpinned a recent resumption of relations between Riyadh and regional rival Iran, and even a foray, led by the US, into normalising ties with Israel. Saudi Arabia had requested major military support from Washington and significant Israeli concessions to the Palestinians as part of any normalisation deal.
“For us, the Palestinian issue is very important. We need to solve that part,” the Crown Prince told Fox News during a rare interview last month. For now, such diplomatic engagement has been suspended, but the threat of escalating conflict clearly does not serve Saudi Arabia’s stated interests, analysts said.
‘Can’t happen with war’
The Crown Prince’s vision “cannot happen with a war”, said Alistair Burt, who served as the UK’s minister for the Middle East and North Africa from 2017 to 2019.
“Hamas is clearly as much an enemy to peace for Saudi Arabia, as it is to Israel,” said Mr Burt. “But it’s also clear that there is no pathway to this new Middle East without a resolution of the issue between Israel and Palestine,” he said. “The future of the Middle East cannot go on with these deep-seated enmities not being resolved.”Still, it remains to be seen how the Israeli military campaign against Hamas unfolds in the next few weeks. For Saudi Arabia, there will be some degree of frustration over a perceived lack of effort from the West, particularly the US, to push more strongly for a ceasefire. Mr Burt said that on the whole, “there has been a fundamental change, because of the horror of what happened, and the potential for further catastrophe of what is next, and a recognition that if that continues, the ability to repair the region is going to be unbelievably difficult”.Prince al-Faisal, who also served as intelligence chief of Saudi Arabia for more than two decades, said that “two wrongs do not make a right” and accused Hamas of “giving the higher moral ground” to Israel’s government. “There are no heroes in this conflict; only victims,” he said. “I condemn Hamas for sabotaging the attempt of Saudi Arabia to reach a peaceful resolution to the plight of the Palestinian people.”
‘Islamic values’
Analysts said his remarks suggested Riyadh may be attempting to temper the anger that has raged across the Arab world in recent weeks as Israel has responded forcefully in Gaza to the killing of more than 1,400 Israelis by Hamas on Oct 7. Prince al-Faisal’s words anchored condemnation of violence by Hamas in “vernacular and Islamic values rather than international law”, said Rim Turkmani, a research fellow in the Syria conflict research programme at the London School of Economics. “There is an Islamic injunction against the killing of innocent children, women and elders; the injunction is also against the desecration of places of worship,” she added. “This is very important because, frankly, international law is not only less relatable to people in the region, but also because it has lost its credibility in their eyes. “They have been complaining about the hypocrisy in the way international law is implemented in the region for decades and they see it being violated by Israel on a daily basis.”Broaden your horizons with award-winning British journalism. Try The Telegraph free for 1 month, then enjoy 1 year for just $9 with our US-exclusive offer.

How the Israel-Hamas War Could Pull in Arab Nations
Armani Syed/The Canadian Press/October 20, 2023
As the Israel-Hamas war rages on for a second week, there is mounting pressure on neighboring Arab governments to take a more active role in the conflict—whether as peacemakers or as allies. Since Hamas’ surprise, unprecedented attack against Israel on Oct. 7—which killed at least 1,400 people, with an estimated 199 others taken hostage—Israel has carried out thousands of airstrikes against the densely-populated Gaza Strip. More than 3,300 people have been killed in Gaza, with Islamic Relief aid workers reporting that at least 1,000 children have died. In the wake of the deadly blast at Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital, Jordan canceled its summit with U.S. President Joe Biden, who arrived in Israel for a planned visit Wednesday to meet the leaders of Jordan, Egypt, and the Palestinian Authority.
Israel initially imposed a total siege of water, fuel, and electricity into the Strip. U.N. Emergency Relief Coordinator Martin Griffiths said Wednesday up to 100 trucks of aid per day were needed, citing pre-war levels. Israeli airstrikes forced the Rafah crossing between Gaza and Egypt to shut last week, as thousands lined up at the border attempting to flee. After calls from human rights groups and diplomatic observers, Biden confirmed Wednesday that Israel had agreed to the opening of the Rafah crossing to allow for the passage of 20 trucks carrying food, water, and medical supplies into Gaza, on the condition that Hamas did not intercept deliveries being made under the supervision of the U.N. Biden pledged $100 million in humanitarian assistance to support civilians in Gaza and the West Bank. Biden’s administration will also ask Congress for a further $2 billion in combined aid for Israel and Ukraine.
As the possibility of a ground invasion by Israel remains likely, here’s how neighboring powers could respond to the unfolding war.
Lebanon
Lebanon, which shares its southern border with Israel, has one of the tensest recent histories with Israel among Arab nations. But there has been relative calm since 2006, when Hezbollah launched a cross-border raid into Israel, killing three soldiers and abducting two others. At least 1,000 Lebanese and 165 Israelis were killed in the 34-day conflict before a U.N. brokered ceasefire was reached, according to the New York Times. As a result, the biggest fear of escalation depends on whether the battle-hardened and well-armed Hezbollah will enter the conflict. Deadly skirmishes between the Iran-backed Lebanese militia and Israel have taken place at the Israel-Lebanon border. On Oct. 15, Israel’s defense minister said that Israel had no interest in war on its northern front provided Hezbollah also shows restraint. But clashes erupted along the border on Tuesday, leaving five Hezbollah fighters dead, amid a series of low-level skirmishes since the Israel-Hamas war began.
Lebanon, the Arab world’s most religiously diverse country, has had a caretaker government with limited powers since November, when Lebanese lawmakers failed to elect a new president for an eleventh time. Hezbollah, as both a militant group and political party, is the dominant force in Lebanon. The group emerged in 1982, during the country’s civil war, as a response to Israel’s invasion of southern Lebanon. Its involvement in the war could exacerbate Lebanon’s religious divisions.
The Lebanese government is hence keen to “keep the border with Israel quiet,” says Imad K. Harb, director of research and analysis at the Arab Center Washington DC. The country has since experienced myriad crises in recent years, including the August 2020 Beirut port explosion and an ongoing economic meltdown that the World Bank has said may be among the top three worst globally since the 19th century. But it is Hezbollah that will have the final say, Harb adds.
Hezbollah is linked to Hamas through Iran’s regional network of allied militias. “When it comes to Hamas’ involvement in a campaign against Israel of this scale, this cannot be something that Hezbollah will stand by and observe without doing anything,” says Lina Khatib, director of the SOAS Middle East Institute. “Since the first rockets that Hezbollah launched, we've seen a widening of the geographical scope that rockets are reaching in Israel… However, I still think the probability of an all out war between Hezbollah and Israel remains low,” Khatib says. She cites Hezbollah’s “domestic calculations,” given the economic costs and how polarizing such an intervention would be.
Egypt
Egypt is the only country aside from Israel to share a border with Gaza, and it has long found itself in the role of mediator between Israelis and Palestinians.
“Egypt is one of the few parties that can talk to all sides,” says Khaled Elgindy, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute. But the nation finds itself overwhelmed by Western pressure, notably from the U.K. and U.S., to host Gazans who wish to escape the conflict, Elgindy adds. “On this occasion, Egypt is being asked to potentially take on tens of thousands of Palestinian people who are fleeing,” says SOAS’s Khatib. “The concern is that this may lead to a long term, if not permanent presence of these Palestinians who end up not as evacuated people but as displaced people.”
As home to the Rafah crossing, the only entry point to Gaza that is not controlled by Israel, rights groups say Egypt has a responsibility to act as a corridor for essential humanitarian aid. But Egypt is also grappling with deep domestic issues, including a flailing economy that has seen its currency lose almost half its value against the dollar since March 2022.
“It's really an untenable situation and rather than demanding that Egypt be the pressure release valve, the U.S. and the international community should be telling Israel to stop putting the pressure on the civilian population,” Elgindy says.
Egypt has for years maintained that permitting an exodus from Gaza would “revive the idea that Sinai is the alternative country for the Palestinians,” Mustapha Kamel al-Sayyid, a political scientist at Cairo University, told the New York Times.
Jordan
Jordan has historically supported the Palestinian cause and more than half of Jordanians claim Palestinian ancestry, according to Human Rights Watch. Jordan has long played a custodian role in the conflict between Israel and the Palestinian territories, particularly around the West Bank it once administered that is home to holy Muslim and Christian sites, most of which are in East Jerusalem. Hours after the start of Hamas’ attack, the Jordanian government released a statement that said Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi had spoken about the situation with European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell. “Al-Safadi stressed the need to protect the region from the consequences of a new cycle of violence, create a real political horizon to end the occupation, and stop all measures that foment tension and undermine the chances of achieving a two-state solution,” the statement read. Presently, Harb says, the only role Jordan can play is that of an advocate. “I am not sure that it can play a big role in the current crisis because it is far from Gaza,” he says.
MEI’s Elgindy says that Jordan’s main concern is to ensure stability in the bordering West Bank. Since the war broke out, at least 61 Palestinians have been killed in the West Bank, according to the Palestinian health ministry, and over a thousand more wounded in the deadliest week since 2005. If violence escalates, Jordan could take on a larger role in mediation, says Elgindy, “but for the time being I don't see them as having a role in Gaza.”
Syria
Syria’s role in the present-day conflict will likely be small. The country is still recovering from the economic fallout from earthquakes in February that killed at least 5,500 people and injured thousands more. Syria continues to suffer from the long-term impact of the uprising-turned-civil war, which broke out in 2011. The nation does not currently have much leverage over the conflict, Rim Turkmani, director of Syria Conflict Research Programme at the London School of Economics, tells TIME. “Hamas is not much dependent on the support of the Syrian regime. The support the Syrian regime gives to Hezbollah and Iran is far more important,” she says. Syria, along with Egypt and Jordan, fought against Israel in the Six Day War in 1967 and Yom Kippur war in 1973. But it has been relatively quiet since in terms of direct military confrontation between Israel and Syria. Turkmani notes that this is in part due to a United Nations Disengagement Observer Force that maintains the 1973 ceasefire between the two countries, and that Syria has remained focused on issues around the Israel-annexed Golan Heights that is internationally recognized as Syrian territory. Regardless, Syria hosts over half a million Palestinian refugees who have arrived in waves since 1948, and the Syrian public, like most Arab nations, remains largely pro-Palestinian.

Pentagon denies report that thousands of artillery shells meant for Ukraine will be sent to Israel, straining the ammo stockpile
Natalie Musumeci,Chris Panella/Business Insider/October 20, 2023
The US has agreed to give Israel tens of thousands of artillery rounds initially slated for Ukraine, Axios reported. The Pentagon plans to send Israel the supply of 155 millimeter artillery shells in the coming weeks, the report said. The chair of NATO's Military Committee previously warned that allied ammo supplies are nearing the "bottom of the barrel."The United States plans to give Israel tens of thousands of artillery rounds that were initially set to go to Ukraine as the Israeli forces continue their bombardment of Gaza in response to Hamas' deadly terror attacks earlier this month, Axios reported.
Three anonymous Israeli officials with knowledge of the situation told Axios, per a report published on Thursday, that the Pentagon plans to send Israel the supply of 155mm artillery shells in the coming weeks. Israel had previously requested the munitions from the US, the officials said. After initial publication, a US official responded to Insider and pushed back on the reporting from Axios, saying that the US is not diverting ammunition formally allocated for Ukraine to Israel. Either way, Israel and Ukraine may end up needing ammunition from an already stressed stockpile. Pentagon spokesman Air Force Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder told reporters at a Thursday press briefing that he did not have any information when asked about the Axios report, but noted that "we are confident we can continue to support both Ukraine and Israel, in terms of their defensive needs."The US Department of Defense referred to Ryder's remarks when asked for comment on the report by Insider on Friday. Despite the projected confidence, officials have warned that ammunition supplies are dwindling as Western countries back Ukraine in its fight against Russia — and that was before a second war broke out in Gaza. The chair of NATO's Military Committee warned earlier this month that ammo supplies are nearing the "bottom of the barrel" as heavy exchanges of artillery fire in Ukraine stress stockpiles. The first shipments of US military aid to Israel began arriving there last week and will continue to be delivered on a near-daily basis, Ryder said, explaining the aid includes precision-guided systems like Joint Direct Attack Munitions, Small Diameter Bombs, and 155mm artillery ammunition. Meanwhile, President Joe Biden is asking Congress for tens of billions of dollars in aid for both Israel and Ukraine.
The US has provided Ukraine more than $44 billion in security assistance since Russia invaded the Eastern European country in February 2022, including several high-profile systems, such as the M1A1 Abrams tanks, the last of which arrived in Ukraine earlier this week, Bradley fighting vehicles, Patriot air-defense systems, High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), and M777 Howitzers. But ammunition has been one of the biggest and most consistent deliveries, with Ukraine eating through artillery as it engages Russian forces. The war has the US scrambling to substantially increase munition production for Ukraine, and Biden has acknowledged stockpiles — specifically of 155mm shells — are running low. The US sent controversial cluster munitions to Ukraine in July as a stopgap to alleviate stress on US ammo supplies and give Ukrainian artillery the ability to deal more damage with less ammunition. "This is a war relating to munitions. And they're running out of that ammunition, and we're low on it," Biden said at the time. Now, with munitions going to Israel, the US will face increased pressure to support two international partners at war and in need of artillery ammunition. And if Israel launches a ground invasion of Gaza, as it has indicated it will, its demand for ammo could increase, further straining US stockpiles. Update: October 20, 2023 — This story has been updated to reflect comments from a US official made after initial publication. The official disputed the Axios report, saying that the US is not diverting ammunition slated for Ukraine to Israel.

Israel pounds Gaza ahead of expected ground offensive
Associated Press/October 20, 2023
Israel bombarded the Gaza Strip early Friday, hitting areas in the south where Palestinians had been told to seek safety, and it began evacuating a sizable town near the country's border with Lebanon in a sign that a potential ground invasion of Gaza could trigger regional turmoil. Palestinians reported heavy airstrikes in the southern Gaza town of Khan Younis, and ambulances carrying men, women and children streamed into the town's Nasser Hospital, Gaza's second largest, which is already overflowing with patients and people seeking shelter. The Israeli military said it had struck more than 100 targets across Gaza linked to the territory's Hamas rulers, including a tunnel and arms depots. On Thursday, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant ordered ground troops to prepare to see Gaza "from the inside," hinting at a ground offensive aimed at crushing Gaza's militant Hamas rulers nearly two weeks after their incursion into Israel. Officials have given no timetable for such an operation. Over a million people have been displaced in Gaza, with many heeding Israel's orders to evacuate the northern part of the sealed-off coastal enclave.
Gaza's overwhelmed hospitals are rationing their dwindling medical supplies and fuel for generators, as authorities worked out logistics for a desperately needed aid delivery from Egypt that has yet to enter. Doctors in darkened wards across Gaza performed surgeries by the light of mobile phones and used vinegar to treat infected wounds.
The deal to get aid into Gaza by way of Rafah, the territory's only crossing not controlled by Israel, remained fragile. Israel said the supplies could only go to civilians and that it would "thwart" any diversions by Hamas. More than 200 trucks and some 3,000 tons of aid were positioned at or near Rafah, but work has not yet begun on repairing a road on the Gaza side that was damaged by airstrikes. Israel has evacuated its own communities near Gaza and Lebanon, putting residents up in hotels elsewhere in the country in a state-funded program. On Friday, the Defense Ministry announced evacuation plans for Kiryat Shmona, a town of more than 20,000 residents near the Lebanese border. Lebanon's Hezbollah, which has a massive arsenal of long-range rockets, has traded fire with Israel along the border on a near-daily basis and hinted it might join the war if Israel seeks to annihilate Hamas. Israel's arch-foe Iran supports both armed groups. The violence in Gaza has also sparked protests across the region, including in Arab countries allied with the U.S. Those demonstrations could flare anew on Friday following weekly Muslim prayers. In an address from the Oval Office on Thursday, President Joe Biden again pledged unwavering support for Israel's security, while saying the world "can't ignore the humanity of innocent Palestinians" in Gaza. Speaking hours after returning to Washington from an urgent visit to Israel, Biden linked the current war in Gaza to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, saying Hamas and Russian President Vladimir Putin "both want to completely annihilate a neighboring democracy." Biden said he was sending an "urgent budget request" to Congress on Friday, to cover emergency military aid to both Israel and Ukraine. Meanwhile, an unclassified U.S. intelligence assessment delivered to Congress estimated casualties in an strike at a Gaza City hospital this week on the "low end" of 100 to 300 deaths. The death toll "still reflects a staggering loss of life," said the report, seen by The Associated Press. It said intelligence officials were still assessing the evidence and their casualty estimate may evolve.
The report echoed earlier assessments by U.S. officials that the blast at the al-Ahli hospital was not caused by an Israeli airstrike. Israel has presented video, audio and other evidence it says proves the blast was caused by a rocket misfired by Palestinian militants.
The AP has not independently verified any of the claims or evidence released by the parties. An Israeli airstrike hit near a Greek Orthodox church housing displaced Palestinians in Gaza City late Thursday. The Israeli military said it had targeted a Hamas command and control center nearby, causing damage to a church wall. In the immediate aftermath, Palestinian medics gave conflicting accounts of the number of people wounded.
The Greek Orthodox Patriarchy of Jerusalem condemned the attack and said it would "not abandon its religious and humanitarian duty" to help people in need. The Israeli military has relentlessly attacked Gaza in retaliation for the devastating Oct. 7 Hamas attack. Even after Israel ordered a mass evacuation to the south, strikes extended across the territory, heightening fears among the territory's 2.3 million people that nowhere was safe. Palestinian militants also have fired daily rocket barrages into Israel from Gaza, and tensions have flared in the Israeli-occupied West Bank. Thirteen Palestinians in the West Bank, including five minors, were killed Thursday during a battle with Israeli troops in which Israel called in an airstrike, according to the Palestinian Health Ministry. The Gaza Health Ministry said 3,785 people have been killed in the territory since the war began, the majority women, children and older adults. Nearly 12,500 were injured, and another 1,300 people were believed buried under rubble, authorities said.
More than 1,400 people in Israel have been reportedly killed during Hamas' rampage almost two weeks ago. The Israeli military said Thursday it had notified the families of 203 people who were captured and taken to Gaza. In a fiery speech on Thursday to Israeli infantry soldiers on the Gaza border, Gallant, the defense minister, urged them to "be ready" to move in. Israel has called up some 360,000 reserves and massed tens of thousands of troops along the Gaza border. "Whoever sees Gaza from afar now, will see it from the inside," he said. "It might take a week, a month, two months until we destroy them," he added, referring to Hamas. With supplies running low because of a complete Israeli siege, some Gaza residents are down to one meal a day and drinking dirty water. Egypt and Israel were still negotiating the entry of fuel for hospitals. An Israeli military spokesperson, Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari, said Hamas has stolen fuel from U.N. facilities and Israel wants assurances that won't happen again. The Gaza Health Ministry pleaded with gas stations to give fuel to hospitals, and a U.N. agency also donated some of its last fuel. Gaza's sole power plant shut down last week, forcing Palestinians to rely on generators, and no fuel has gone in since the start of the war. The U.N. agency for Palestinian refugees's donation to Gaza City's Shifa Hospital, the territory's largest, would "keep us going for another few hours," said Mohammed Abu Selmia, the hospital director.

Gulf, Asian nations end summit with call for cease-fire
Associated Press/October 20, 2023
Saudi Arabia — Arab Gulf and southeast Asian nations called Friday for a cease-fire in the Israel-Hamas war and the entry of humanitarian aid to Gaza. The final statement of a summit hosted by Saudi Arabia also condemned “all attacks against civilians.”
The joint summit of the Gulf Cooperation Council and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations brought together 16 member states.Saudi Arabia, which has launched a number of diplomatic initiatives across the Middle East over the past year, has called for a halt to the fighting. Before the outbreak of the war, the kingdom had been in talks with the United States on normalizing relations with Israel in exchange for a U.S. defense pact, help in establishing a civilian nuclear program and unspecified concessions to the Palestinians.

No plans for Israel to control life in Gaza, ministry says
Associated Press/October 20, 2023
Israel’s defense minister said Friday that after the country destroys the Hamas militant group, the military does not plan to control “life in the Gaza Strip”Defense Minister Yoav Gallant’s comments to lawmakers were the first time an Israeli leader discussed its long-term plans for Gaza. Gallant said Israel expected there to be three phases to its war with Hamas. He said it first would attack the group in Gaza with airstrikes and ground maneuvers, then it would defeat pockets of resistance and finally it would cease its “responsibility for life in the Gaza Strip.”

Netanyahu is to blame for Hamas war, say four out of five Israelis
Verity Bowman/The Telegraph/October 20, 2023
An overwhelming majority of Israelis believe that Benjamin Netanyahu is responsible for the deadly Hamas attacks. ‌A total of 80 per cent said the prime minister should publicly accept the blame for the failures that led to the deaths of at least 1,400 Israelis on the deadliest day in the country’s 75-year-old history.
The figure includes 69 per cent of those who voted for the premier’s Likud party in last year’s election. Just eight per cent of the public think Mr Netanyahu is not responsible.‌ Israelis have been fiercely divided over the state response to the terror attacks on Oct 7, but these new figures suggest a united opposition to Mr Netanyahu. Critics argue that Mr Netanyahu largely ignored military provocation from Hamas since the last major Israeli ground incursion of 2014, and has simultaneously allowed huge sums of cash to flow into Gaza. Others say that the ongoing corruption scandal that has plagued Mr Netanyahu distracted him from keeping the country secure. Opening the Knesset’s winter session last week, Mr Netanyahu said there were “many questions surrounding the disaster that befell us 10 days ago” and promised they would be investigated in “every aspect” after the current military mission was completed.
Mr Netanyahu’s coalition partner, finance minister Bezalel Smotrich, said the government leadership and security leadership had failed to protect the country but the premier himself has yet to make a clear statement of responsibility. Israeli politicians have described the attacks as “the greatest failure in the history of Israel”. Ehud Olmert, the former prime minister, said Mr Netanyahu had been warned by Israeli intelligence about the possibility of a Hamas attack, but he was “arrogant”. ‌“Netanyahu doesn’t have the trust of the people, of the families of those who were slaughtered, or of the commanders and the soldiers in the field,” he told France24. An editorial page in the Israeli newspaper Haaretz accused Mr Netanyahu of glaring failures. Dmitry Shumsky, a columnist for Haaretz, argued that Mr Netanyahu had pursued a policy of “diplomatic paralysis” in order to avoid negotiations over a two-state solution.
He said this strategy was flawed and has turned Hamas from “a minor terrorist group into an efficient, lethal army with bloodthirsty killers who mercilessly slaughtered innocent Israeli civilians”.
‘Ignored rights of Palestinians’
It claimed that “embracing a foreign policy that openly ignored the existence and rights of Palestinians” pushed Hamas to fight. As Israel looks poised to send ground troops into Gaza, the survey found that 65 per cent of the public backs the possibility of an offensive, while 21 per cent oppose it. Most Israelis also supported the possibility of a conflict on the northern border as tensions between Jerusalem and Lebanon soar.‌ The Iran-backed Hezbollah militia in Lebanon and its allies have traded cross-border fire with Israel for days. A total of 51 per cent of Israelis said they would back a large-scale military operation on the northern front.‌ The survey was conducted by the Lazar Institute, along with Panel4All, among 510 respondents on Oct 18 and 19.

The US is dangerously close to being pulled into a Middle East war
Analysis by Ben Wedeman/CNN/October 20, 2023
Editor’s Note: A version of this story appears in CNN’s Meanwhile in the Middle East newsletter, a three-times-a-week look inside the region’s biggest stories. Sign up here. A US navy ship intercepts missiles launched by Houthi rebels in Yemen. Two American bases in Syria come under fire. In Iraq, drones and rockets fired at US forces. Gaza may be where the war is happening now, but across the Middle East the warning lights of more trouble to come are blinking red. The US has deployed two carrier groups to the eastern Mediterranean to deter Iran and its allies Syria and Hezbollah from opening new fronts against Israel. Two thousand US Marines are on hard standby for deployment to the region. US President Joe Biden spent seven hours in Israel Wednesday, voicing full support for Israel’s campaign against Gaza, albeit urging Israeli leaders, and repeating it in his Thursday evening speech from the White House, not to be blinded by rage. Biden is pledging to provide Israel billions of dollars in additional aid. Prior to that, Secretary of State Antony Blinken spent seven hours meeting with Israel’s war cabinet – not the regular Israeli cabinet, the war cabinet. All the while the US is airlifting massive amounts of ammunition and equipment to help the Israeli war effort. It all amounts to this: the United States is careening closer to the very real possibility of direct involvement in a regional Middle Eastern war. This is not the 1991 campaign to expel Saddam Hussein’s army from Kuwait or the 2003 invasion of Iraq, both preceded by months of planning and preparation. Then, the US and its allies determined the time, place, and scale of attack. Now, at best, the US is scrambling to respond to events largely out of its control. And in this dangerous terrain, suddenly the vulnerabilities of the sprawling American military presence across the Middle East are glaringly obvious.
Regional rivalries
The US has troops in northeastern and southeastern Syria, a country where Bashar al-Assad’s army, and forces from Russia, Turkey, Iran, Hezbollah, an array of anti-regime factions, and Kurdish militias are all operating, as well as the still active remnants of the Islamic State. Israel regularly bombs targets in Syria, most recently, it is widely believed, the airports of Aleppo and Damascus, with the aim of stopping Iran from flying in weapons and ammunition. The US also has a military presence in Iraq, where a myriad of well-armed and battle-hardened Iranian-backed militias operate largely independent of the government in Baghdad.
And then there’s Iran.
Despite decades of draconian US-inspired sanctions, Iran has succeeded in developing an array of sophisticated weaponry. Its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has gained valuable combat experience in Syria and Iraq. It has provided training and arms to the Houthis in Yemen, the Syrian regime, Hezbollah, Hamas and Islamic Jihad. In the aftermath of the January 2020 US assassination of IRGC commander Qasem Soleimani, Iran was able to fire a salvo of missiles at a US base in neighboring Iraq. And while it costs thousands of dollars to move one soldier or Marine from the US to the Middle East, it’s just a bus ride for an IRGC soldier to get to Baghdad, Damascus, or Beirut. The US may have the world’s strongest military, but as the American debacles in Vietnam and Afghanistan proved, that’s no guarantee of victory over a determined and resourceful foe. Or, in the case of the Middle East today, foes. During recent visits to Beirut, Damascus, Baghdad and Doha, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian repeatedly warned if Israel continues its offensive against Gaza, the opening of new fronts can’t be ruled out. Empty rhetoric perhaps. Or perhaps not.
Protests against Israel and US
As the war in Gaza rages, the Middle East is seething with anger. In Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Yemen, Iran, Turkey, Morocco, Egypt and elsewhere protests have flared against Israel, but much of the rage is also directed against Israel’s most vocal, persistent, and generous backer, the United States.
Jordan’s King Abdullah, Washington’s most cooperative Arab friend, canceled the scheduled summit with President Biden in Amman in the aftermath of the deadly blast at Gaza’s Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital. No doubt he and the planned summit’s other participants, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, were loath to be seen side by side with an American leader who so passionately embraced Israel as the death toll in Gaza soared. The US can still count allies among the region’s autocrats. The streets are a whole different matter. Anger has been turbocharged in the wake of a deadly blast that tore through Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza on Tuesday, killing hundreds. Palestinian officials accuse Israel of striking the hospital. Israel denies it. Meeting in Cairo Thursday, President Sisi and King Abdullah issued a joint statement warning “if the war does not stop and expands, it threatens to plunge the entire region into a catastrophe.”I’ve spent the past week reporting from along the Lebanon-Israel border, the trip wire for that catastrophe. Hezbollah fighters daily target Israeli army positions, using guided missiles to hit tanks, troops and, most consistently, surveillance and communications equipment. The military wings of Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad occasionally fire volleys of rockets into Israel. The Israelis strike back targeting what they say is Hezbollah’s military infrastructure. Combatants and civilians have been killed and injured on both sides. It’s enough to keep nerves on edge, but not enough, yet, to precipitate an all-out war, and it’s not enough, yet, to draw the US into the conflict. But the very real possibility exists. The American carrier groups just over the horizon are there to deter Iran, Hezbollah and others from going too far. If they do, and the US responds, then all bets are off. All the pieces are now in place for Israel’s decades-old quarrel with the Palestinians to explode into a regional cataclysm. And the US may be in the middle of it. Go deeper into the biggest stories and trends in the Middle East and what they mean for your world. Sign up for CNN’s Meanwhile in the Middle East newsletter right here.

Aid trucks need to move to Gaza as quickly as possible: UN chief
News Agencies/October 20, 2023
RAFAH, Egypt: Aid trucks need to move to Gaza as quickly as possible, United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said at the Egyptian side of the Rafah crossing between the Gaza Strip and Egypt. He called for a meaningful number of trucks to enter Gaza every day and for verifications of aid to be done in a way that is practical and expedited. “We are actively engaging with all parties to make sure conditions for delivering aid are lifted,” he said. The UN chief paid a visit to the Egyptian side of the Rafah border crossing with Gaza on Friday to oversee preparations for the delivery of aid to the war-torn enclave. Trucks stuffed with international aid for Gaza should be rolling “in the next day or so,” the United Nations said Friday, with Palestinians desperate for life-saving supplies after relentless bombing from Israel, still reeling from its bloodiest-ever attack. Israel has vowed to destroy Hamas after the Islamist militant group launched an unprecedented raid from the Gaza Strip on October 7, killing at least 1,400 people, mostly civilians who were shot, mutilated or burned to death, according to Israeli officials. Hamas gunmen also kidnapped nearly 200 hostages including foreigners from around two dozen countries ranging from Paraguay to Tanzania. In response, Israeli war planes have levelled entire city blocks in Gaza in preparation for a ground invasion they say is coming soon. More than 3,785 Palestinians, mostly civilians, have died in the bombing, according to the latest toll from the Hamas-run health ministry. The United Nations says more than one million of Gaza’s 2.4 million people are displaced and that the humanitarian situation is deteriorating daily. A spokesman for UN humanitarian chief Martin Griffiths told reporters in Geneva they were in “deep and advanced negotiations” with all sides to ensure aid moves “as quickly as possible.”
“A first delivery is due to start in the next day or so.”Medicine, water purifiers and blankets were being unloaded at El-Arish airport near Gaza, an AFP reporter saw, with Ahmed Ali, head of the Egyptian Red Crescent, saying he was getting “two to three planes of aid a day.” The situation inside Gaza is “beyond catastrophic,” said Sara Alzawqari, UNICEF spokeswoman for the Gulf. “Time is running out and the numbers of casualties among children are rising.”Egyptian state-linked broadcaster Al Qahera News had said the Rafah crossing — the only route into Gaza — would open Friday, but Cairo has said it needed more time to repair roads. Raising some hope aid could soon flow, Egypt has removed concrete blocks on the only route into Gaza, a security source told AFP. Egypt is still fixing bomb-damaged roads and on Friday “vehicles and Egyptian equipment went in to repair the road on the Palestinian side,” witnesses told AFP. The World Health Organization’s emergencies director has called a deal struck by US President Joe Biden to allow in 20 trucks “a drop in the ocean of need.”“It should be 2,000 trucks,” said Michael Ryan.
GEARING UP FOR GROUND INVASION
Within Israel, still coming to terms with the deadliest attack in its 75-year history, the drumbeat of war was growing louder, as leaders rallied troops for a ground offensive. Clad in body armor, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu embraced front-line troops near Gaza, urging them to “fight like lions” and “win with full force.”Fists clenched and voice raised, Netanyahu told cheering soldiers: “We will deal harsh blows to our enemies in order to achieve victory.”Defense Minister Yoav Gallant also toured the front line, telling some of the tens of thousands of troops awaiting the ground invasion that “the order will come soon.”“Right now you see Gaza from afar, soon you will see it from the inside,” said Gallant. Israeli jets struck more than 100 Hamas targets overnight, killing at least one Hamas operative, the army said Friday. The horror of what Israel suffered on October 7 and following days was still emerging, as traumatized residents recounted their stories. Shachar Butler, a security chief at the Nir Oz kibbutz, where Hamas militants killed or kidnapped a quarter of the 400 residents, recalls more than a dozen gunmen spraying bullets indiscriminately and lobbing grenades at homes. “It’s unimaginable,” the 40-year-old told AFP as part of a trip organized by the Israeli military. “Anytime someone tried to touch my window, I shot him,” he said. “The people who came out got kidnapped, killed, executed, slaughtered.” Butler estimated as many as 200 militants attacked the kibbutz, entering from three sides before going house-to-house. Homes there were still charred with burned personal belongings strewn everywhere. Israel says around 1,500 Hamas fighters were killed in clashes before its army regained control of the areas under attack.
SUPPORT FOR ISRAEL
During a rare address from the Oval Office, Biden urged the United States to take the lead in supporting Israel and Ukraine, saying he would make an “urgent” request to Congress for aid later Friday. “American leadership is what holds the world together,” Biden said in just his second primetime speech from behind the historic Resolute Desk. Fresh from a whirlwind trip to Israel this week, Biden is hoping to staunch the possibility of a wider Middle East war. The United States has already moved two aircraft carriers into the eastern Mediterranean to deter Iran or Lebanon’s Hezbollah, both allies of Hamas, from getting involved. But fears of a wider conflagration are growing, with Israel announcing plans to evacuate the northern city of Kiryat Shmona after days of clashes with Hezbollah fighters along the border with Lebanon. The conflict has inflamed passions across the region, and authorities are bracing for mass protests in several countries, with Hamas urging demonstrators to target Israeli and US embassies. Meanwhile, Gaza students in Egypt told AFP of their nightmare watching events unfold from far away. Haya Shehab, 21, learned from an Instagram post that her extended family’s home had been bombed, killing 45 people — dozens of them cousins. “Just like that, 45 of us gone,” said Shehab, who studies at a private university in Cairo.

Hamas official says group ‘well aware’ of consequences of attack on Israel, Palestinian liberation comes with ‘sacrifices’
Arab News/October 20, 2023
LONDON: Senior Hamas official Khaled Mashal has said the terrorist group was aware of the ramifications of its Oct. 7 attack on Israel, and added Palestinian lives would need to be sacrificed in order to win “liberation.”Speaking in a fractious interview with Al-Arabiya host Rasha Nabil, Mashal praised the “ingenious” Hamas attack and called it “legitimate resistance” to Israeli occupation. Nabil challenged the former political leader of Hamas and questioned whether the group could call its “transgressions against Israeli civilians” in southern Israel true resistance, saying it was “more like a declaration of war” decided upon without the backing of the Palestinian people. She also noted that in the Western media Hamas was now being compared to Daesh, and pressed Mashal on how he had expected to encourage sympathy for the Palestinian cause by carrying out the attacks, which killed nearly 1,400 Israelis. She also highlighted the fact Hamas likely expected the response such an attack would prompt from the Israeli military and must therefore hold responsibility for the “great human tragedy” unfolding in Gaza, where thousands of Palestinians have been killed or wounded and more than 1 million internally displaced. “We know very well the consequences of our operation on Oct. 7,” Mashal said. He added that sacrifices had to be made for liberation and cited examples of the Soviet Union in the Second World War, the Vietnamese during their war with the US, Afghan resistance to Soviet and American occupation, and the Algerian battle for independence. He said: “The Palestinian people are just like any other nation: No nation is liberated without sacrifices. Israel will kill us, whether we resist it or not.”Mashal was asked if treating civilians in such a way was part of Hamas’ ideology, and he responded by saying the group only focused its resistance on “occupation forces, on the soldiers.”He added: “In all wars, there are some civilian victims. We are not responsible for them.”Mashal was asked if he wanted to apologize for civilian deaths in the attacks. He replied: “Apologies should be demanded from Israel. Hamas does not kill civilians on purpose. It focuses on the soldiers. Period.” The Hamas official urged Egyptian leaders to do more to assist Hamas, while thanking those he said were resisting with Palestinians in Gaza, naming Hezbollah in Lebanon. He said: “Outside of Palestine, we are grateful to whoever is standing by us.”Nabil asked Mashal why Arab nations who “did not participate in making the decision” to attack Israel should be asked do more. He said: “When people are under occupation, they have a natural right to do so. Nobody has the right to ask us why we did this and whether we consulted with anyone.”He said he hoped to use hostages taken in the Oct. 7 attack to “empty Israeli prisons” of “our sons and daughters from all the factions.”

GCC, ASEAN call for permanent ceasefire in Gaza, condemn attacks against civilians
Arab News/October 20/2023
RIYADH: Gulf and ASEAN leaders have issued a statement calling all parties involved in the Gaza conflict to implement a permanent ceasefire, and condemned the attacks on civilians in the Palestinian enclave. Summit leaders also called for much-needed delivery of humanitarian aid, relief supplies and other essential necessities and services to Gaza. In their statement, the leaders urged parties to the conflict to protect civilians, to refrain from targeting them and to adhere to international humanitarian law, especially the principles and provisions of the Geneva Convention regarding the Protection of Civilian Persons in Time of War. The statement all called for the immediate and unconditional release of hostages and civilian detainees, especially women, children, the sick and the elderly, and urged all parties to work towards reaching a peaceful solution to the conflict.
The leaders of the two regional blocs also expressed their support to revive the Middle East peace process, and to resolve the conflict between Israel and its neighbors in accordance with international law. The regional leaders also agreed on the Framework of Cooperation 2024-2028, aiming to further strengthen partnership and cooperation to realize the potential for growing cooperation between both sides. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman earlier reiterated the Kingdom’s support for efforts to reach a just solution to the Palestinian cause in his opening speech at the summit.
The crown prince also said that he was ‘saddened’ by the escalating violence in Gaza, for which innocent people were paying the price, and firmly rejected the targeting of civilians. Indonesian President Joko Widodo, who led the 10-nation ASEAN this year, in his opening statement also called for an end in the violence in Gaza in accordance with international laws. Crown Prince Mohammed also said that Saudi Arabia seeks to strengthen relations with ASEAN nations across all fields. Although the two organizations established relations in 1990, the gathering will be their maiden summit with the aim of optimizing cooperation between the regional blocs. The GCC comprises Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and the UAE, while the ASEAN bloc is made up of Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and the Philippines. The value of trade between ASEAN nations currently stands at more than $110 billion.

Latest English LCCC  analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on October 20-21/2023
Palestine: A Cause or a State?
Amir Taheri/Asharq Al-Awsat/October 20/2023
Why did Hamas trigger the current tragedy that has given the old Israel-Palestine conflict an even deadlier dimension? And what are the chances for shooing the two sides away from the edge of the abyss?
The tsunami comments on the latest episode shows that the Israel-Palestine conflict remains a template on which advocates of rival ideologies project their fantasies and prejudices.
Why did Hamas trigger its attack out of the blue? Hamas apologists repeat the usual shibboleths: occupation, colonial settlements, expulsions, Apartheid, the two-state solution.
A closer look, however, shows that none of those “reasons” could explain, let alone justify, why Hamas did what it did on October 7.
The occupation claim is out because Israeli occupation of Gaza ended in 2005 after which Hamas has been in full control of the enclave and what is presented as its government.
The colonial settlements claim is equally inapplicable here because the last Israeli settlements in Gaza were dismantled in 2004-5 prior to full withdrawal.
The expulsion claim is even more outlandish. Between 2005 and the latest Hamas attack the only expulsions that happened in Gaza concerned Bedouin tribes kicked out of their villages and grazing areas for their flocks by Hamas gunmen. An estimated 20,000 Bedouin tribespeople have been expelled to Egypt and Israel, the latest being inhabitants of villages in the Om Nasser area.
The Apartheid claim is even less credible only if because there is not a single Israeli living in Gaza to practice it against other inhabitants.
The claim that Hamas is fighting for a two-state solution is also untrue as the militant organization has consistently opposed it. Hamas has never hidden its hope of imposing a one-state solution which means the elimination of Israel in any shape or form.
People like Josep Borrel, the European Union’s foreign policy spokesman, and Jean-Luc Melenchon, the leader of the French leftist coalition, try to drown the fish by implying that although none of those “reasons” concern Hamas, we must assume that it is fighting on behalf of all Palestinians including those in the West Bank. But that means bestowing on Hamas a mandate it has never received form the Palestinians while casting doubt on the legitimacy of the Palestinian National Authority which is recognized by all Arab and Islamic states and the United Nations. In the only more or less credible election held among Palestinians Hamas won 44.2 percent of the votes to PNA’s 42.5 percent. Even then it was Hamas who withdrew from the scheme and excluded Fatah and other pro-PNA groups from Gaza.
In the past few days the traditional media and the cyberspace have been presenting the “two-state” scheme as the magic formula that could close this 100-year saga. That, however, is no more than an attempt to fig-leaf the nakedness of pundits and policymakers.
We don’t know whether or not a majority of Israelis and Palestinians think about that fig-leaf. But what is certain is that the leadership elites on both sides have never seriously committed to a roadmap in that direction.
The PNA and Hamas have preferred to pose as guardians of the flame rather than builders of state structures, Hamas in a straightforward and honest way and PNA with a forked tongue. For a brief period, 2007-2013, the PNA under Prime Minister Salam Fayyad tried to promote the state-building culture as opposed to the chest-beating posture of “the cause”. But both Hamas and the PNA did all they could to derail Fayyad’s project.
The PNA’s latest position on the two-state formula includes “the return to 1948 ceasefire lines”, something that no Israeli leader could accept.
Israeli leaders have been equally evasive, if not downright deceptive, on the “two-state” formula. Even before it became a diplomatic cliché, Israel tried to give a nod to Palestinian self-rule with the Yigal Allon plan that offered Palestinians a Bantustan style administration. Ariel Sharon’s “Gaza first” scheme was presented as the first step towards a two-state solution. Sharon, however; saw a semi-independent Gaza in military terms as a glacis not realizing that a glacis could also morph into a base for aggression.
“Gaza first” scheme exposed the concept of “security through evacuation” as a dangerous myth that replaced another myth: land-for-peace which has offered what amounts to lukewarm and always reversible peace.
Israeli leaders always tried to drive a wedge between Gaza and the West Bank. They encouraged, not to say actually promoted, the creation of Hamas as the Palestinian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood, to undermine not only Fatah but also the grass-root Palestinian leadership represented by people like Haidar Abdul-Shafi that emerged in the aftermath of the Madrid Peace Conference. But when Hamas proved disappointing and the Madrid negotiators not easily controllable, Israel put their chips on Yasser Arafat with the Oslo Accords.
All along Israeli leaders tried to jump through one hoop after another to avoid seriously dealing with the “two-state” formula which the United States and its Western allies promoted regardless of its lack of support among Israelis and Palestinians.
The Israel-Palestine conflict started as a clash of Arab nationalism and Zionism, both modeled on 19th century European nationalistic movements. After the Second World War the clash assumed a geo-political dimension that was intensified in the Cold War.
With the end of the Cold War that geopolitical dimension has assumed an ideological varnish with the “Palestinian cause” used, and abused, as a means of legitimizing regimes as diverse as the Islamic Republic in Tehran; the AKP in Ankara and, believe it or not, the leftist outfit in Bogota. And that not to mention “return ticket revolutionaries” in the West who draw voyeuristic pleasure from watching others kill and die for “great causes”.
Throughout the Cold War, ignoring the geopolitical dimension of the Israel-Palestine issue encouraged wild-goose diplomatic chasings most notoriously symbolized by the “two-state” formula. Today, the same error is repeated by focusing almost exclusively on Hamas without asking who is funding, training, arming and manipulating Hamas in the name of “clash of civilizations”. The current tragedy has shattered the status quo that took shape in the aftermath of the Cold War. Attempts at reviving it in one form or another would only provide a prelude to even bigger tragedies.

Are One Million Gazans Headed for Egypt?
Abdulrahman Al-Rashed/Asharq Al-Awsat/October 20/2023
The world is embroiled in a two-pronged crisis. On October 7, Hamas attacked Israel that retaliated with intensified shelling on Gaza. In addition to hospitals being targeted, the mass displacement and Israel’s cut of electricity and water supplies to the besieged strip, skirmishes continue with Hezbollah on Israel’s northern border.
We expected that the westerners and Israelis abducted by Hamas will be the wildcard in this war, but instead, about 1 million Palestinians have become an Israeli wildcard.
Israel, which has been beating the drums of war to the tune of a large-scale ground offensive, has so far opted for aerial bombardment that has grave consequences on civilians and protects the IDF from incurring further casualties. If the shelling continues, this will spell an even greater disaster for Gazans and the number of civilian victims will climb further.
The strike on the hospital was most likely perpetrated by Israel, which had previously threatened to target the hospital under the pretext that Hamas leaders were hiding there. Hamas’ losses are relatively small, as airstrikes are less effective in guerilla warfare such as against Hamas and Islamic Jihad.
The most serious consequence of this crisis, however, is the displacement of approximately 1 million Gazans from the north of the enclave to the south, and potentially, from its south to Egypt’s Sinai. This would mark the largest Palestinian displacement since the 1967 War! Is the expulsion of about one-third of the Gaza Strip's population to Egypt possible?
The first displacement from northern Gaza to its south is part of the battle with Hamas and will later create a vast buffer zone protecting Israel’s borders. The displacement of 1 million Palestinians to Egypt, on the other hand, is an issue that concerns all stakeholders in the region. Is this a realistic option? Under the present circumstances, this seems unlikely due to a multitude of reasons; chiefly, that Egypt is completely opposed to the idea for political and national security considerations.
Egypt is an ally of the United States, and Israel itself will not sacrifice its diplomatic relations with Egypt. Therefore, there can be no displacement of the Palestinians without Egyptian consent, and Egypt will certainly oppose this. Had these clashes been with Syria or Lebanon, the situation would have been very different, as Israel could have pushed the local population, if any, toward the border.
As for the question: "What happened to the millions of Syrians?", they fled the warzone to Türkiye, but this is a different subject to be able to draw any parallels. Damascus considers Türkiye responsible for supporting the opposition, and Türkiye was unable to directly intervene militarily, so it had to open its borders to Syrians fleeing the country. The numbers of those who fled was unprecedented since World War II. Today, Türkiye is grappling with the burden of a large number of refugees and with the economic, social and political ramifications.
Israel’s talk of displacing Gaza's population to Egypt appears to be a retaliatory measure against Egypt, for what the former considers to be laxness on the part of Egyptians in controlling crossings, tunnels and the border. The displacement of hundreds of thousands of Palestinians, whether internally or externally, amounts to a reward for both Israel and Iran. Israel will rid itself of a large chunk of Palestinians on its borders, whereas Iran would have weakened Egypt and threatened its national security, and at the same time, strengthened Iran’s negotiating position, along with that of Hezbollah and Syria.

Israel’s picturesque, ghostly North awaits next phase of war
Seth J. Frantzman/The Jerusalem Post/October 20/ 2023
Kiryat Shmona came under rocket fire on Thursday from Hamas forces in Lebanon to the north. Out of the 30 rockets launched at it, one moderately wounded two people, a father and his daughter. The sounds of artillery fire could be heard across the city.
Located just 3 km. from Lebanon, Kiryat Shmona is the latest war front, and it feels deserted. As darkness fell towards the evening, only a handful of cars could be seen on the street; restaurants and businesses were closed. Like many areas across the country, it has become a ghost town lost to war.
On Thursday, I drove up to the northern border to traverse the 28 towns that Israel evacuated amid threats from Hezbollah and Hamas. Many of these border areas have been threatened by anti-tank missiles, rockets, mortars, and light arms fire.
In Shtula, a van sat on the side of the road, its engine blown out, a victim of anti-tank fire. Damage was also sustained by a building under construction. On Sunday, one person was killed and several were wounded in an aerial attack.
The security team of this small community is varied, made up of young and old, some of them veterans of wars past. Haim Eliyahu lived in Shtula since he was a kid. His father had immigrated there from the Kurdistan region of Iraq in the 1950s.
They lived first in El-Kosh in the northern Galilee, moving after to these hills on the northern border in 1969. They were so close to Lebanon that residents were able to walk over and buy food from the Lebanese villages. The border was not like it is today back then. There was no fence and no terror army on the other side. Eliyahu said they used to play soccer together. In the 1970s, the PLO, ejected from Jordan, arrived across the border and began executing attacks. They tried to massacre people in the Galilee in those days – a forerunner to Hamas’s attacks. Back then, border communities were armed. Later, after the 1982 invasion of Lebanon, the border was again open, until 2000, when Hezbollah took power in the hills in Lebanon.
Northern Israel is armed
Today, northern Israel is an armed camp. With 300,000 reservists called up, many areas are festooned with tanks, soldiers, camps, and military vehicles on the move, with temporary concrete shelters being delivered.
Once tourist hotspots today stand deserted. Rosh Hanikra, a beautiful ocean overlook, is empty of visitors; Achziv beach has no swimmers; only soldiers can be seen on many roads; roadblocks are everywhere. As in the South, tens of thousands of residents have been evacuated. Civilian volunteer networks have sprung up to help with the facilities and deliver food to security forces and locals. This is how chickens in places like Shtula are surviving without their owners; how the cows get fed and milked.
An IDF officer assured that his soldiers were ready, prepared for any eventuality, and that morale is high. This was evident from the soldiers traversing the pretty meandering roads.
Yet the threat of rockets and anti-tank missiles is always present. Roads that run too close to the border are closed, as sirens rang above towns and Israel carried out retaliatory strikes.
However, the hills seem to obscure the war, swaddled in winter clouds and rain. It is quiet. If it were not for the large metallic beasts, the tanks, sitting here and there, it would be a perfectly peaceful fall day.
On the way to Kiryat Shmona, traffic was stopped due to rocket fire, halting the movement of army vehicles, police, and locals. Old M113 APCs, that the army still uses, were driving along as well, waiting for the all clear to proceed. Like everyone else, they were waiting. Waiting for what comes next – for the next phase of this war.
*Seth J. Frantzman, Ph.D., is the author of “Drone Wars: Pioneers, Killing Machines, Artificial Intelligence and the Battle for the Future.” He has more than 15 years of experience covering conflict and security issues in the Middle East, as a correspondent and analyst, and is an adjunct fellow at The Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD).

Iran mobilizes proxies for drone war on US and Israel - analysis
Seth J. Frantzman/The Jerusalem Post/October 20/2023
Sanctions on Iran’s missile program ended this week, fueling Iran’s appetite for defense deals and empowering its sense of impunity regarding the supply of weapons to proxies.
Iran has encouraged its terrorist proxy forces in Iraq, Yemen and Syria to begin a drone war against US forces and Israel. On Thursday drones and rockets targeted Ain al-Asad base in Iraq. This is at least the third attack on the base this week. Iran operationalized the drones and rocket forces among its proxies this week and used false Hamas accusations that Israel struck a hospital as a catalyst to begin this planned campaign.
Iran has done this before. Pro-Iranian militias in Iraq began targeting US forces in 2019. They first used 107mm rockets that were likely of Iranian origin. They targeted numerous bases, eventually resulting in injuries and deaths. The US then struck Qasem Soleimani and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis with a missile fired from a drone in January 2020 in response to all the attacks. Iran also carried out a drone and missile attack on Abqaiq in Saudi Arabia and used drones to target ships in the Gulf of Oman over the last two years. Iran also encouraged proxies in Syria to use rockets and drones to attack US forces near the Euphrates.
Rocket attack hits military base hosting US forces near Baghdad
Rockets have hit a military base hosting US forces near Baghdad's international airport, Iraqi police said on Thursday.
At least two Katyusha rockets landed in the perimeter of the base near a complex that houses US forces, police said.
Police said it was not clear if the attack caused any casualties.
Restarting an old war
Now Iran is beginning this drone war again. Reuters noted on Thursday that “drones and rockets targeted on Thursday evening the Ain al-Asad air base, which hosts US and other international forces in western Iraq, and multiple blasts were heard inside the base, two security sources said.” The Iraqi military claims it is searching for the drone debris. On Wednesday there were two drone attacks at Asad base, and one of them caused “minor injuries,” Reuters reported. The US intercepted the first drone attack, which reports said consisted of two drones. Iran and its proxies use kamikaze drones usually. Iran has exported Shahed 136 kamikaze drones to Russia. Sanctions on Iran’s missile program also ended this week, fueling Iran’s appetite for defense deals and empowering its sense of impunity regarding the supply of weapons to proxies.
The Pentagon also said a US Navy warship had shot down three missiles and several drones that were launched from Yemen. Iran backs the Houthis in Yemen. In the past they have threatened Israel and the US. Their official slogan is “death to America, death to Israel, curse the Jews, victory to Islam.” Iran had reconciled with Saudi Arabia earlier this year and this was supposed to reduce threats from the Houthis. The Houthis tried to conquer Yemen in 2015 but Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states intervened. Iran shipped the Houthis technological know-how to make drones and ballistic missiles and Iran used Yemen as a testing ground for its kamikaze drones, perfecting targeting and precision.
The USS Carney, a Navy destroyer which is sailing in the Red Sea intercepted the drone and missile threat this week, according to Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder, Pentagon press secretary. The US says they were launched by the Houthis. “We cannot say for certain what these missiles and drones were targeting, but they were launched from Yemen heading north along the Red Sea, potentially towards targets in Israel,” Ryder said. They posed a potential threat and the US is prepared to support “our partners” in the region. This could refer to Israel. The US has sent two carriers to the Mediterranean amidst Hezbollah threats.
Iran’s drone wars now appear to be increasing across a wide swath of the Middle East. This is an arc of drone warfare that now stretches from Lebanon via Syria to Iraq and the Gulf and Red Sea. Iranian drones and the drones of its proxies are believed to have ranges of some 2,000km.

Intelligence Failures - Again
Pete Hoekstra/Gatestone Institute./October 20, 2023
The failure of the U.S. intelligence community has three components: 1) It has become politically charged and lost focus on its mission protecting Americans, instead engaging in partisan politics. 2) It continues to focus on technological intelligence collection rather than the difficult and risky world of human intelligence collection. 3) It continues to suffer from a lack of creativity in anticipating and understanding the new threats being developed by our enemies.
There is little doubt that the Intelligence Community has become seriously politicized. In 2016-2017, its leaders and the FBI undermined the incoming President Donald Trump by raising the specter of Russian influence over Trump. The disproven Russia hoax would go on to shadow and undermine Trump's entire time in office.
Despite warnings from the U.S. Intelligence Community, the Biden administration failed to anticipate or plan for the dramatic and quick collapse of Afghanistan's government when U.S. troops were withdrawn.
A little more than a week prior to the Hamas attack, Biden's National Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan, was talking-up successes in the Middle East... "the Middle East region is quieter today than it has been in two decades."
He could not have been more wrong. Boiling just under the surface was a terrorist attack that would result in more than 1,400 Israelis killed, at least 31 Americans killed, atrocities against Israeli civilians that include beheaded babies and babies burned alive...
The Intelligence Community also shifted some of its focus from international threats to domestic threats -- often spurious -- while ignoring the real ticking time bomb of 5.6 million migrants flooding onto the United States through the southern border, in addition to at least 1.5 million known "gotaways" and an unknown number of unknown "gotaways."
The biggest U.S. intelligence failure of all so far, unfortunately, has been strenuously pretending not to know that Iran, Qatar and Turkey are the kingpins behind the current attacks by Hamas on Israel. If Iran, Qatar and Turkey are to be discouraged from continuing their malign actions destabilizing the region, the price they pay needs to be steep. Hamas. Iran, Qatar and Turkey must not be let off the hook. In addition, the US must move its military assets from Al Udeid Airbase in Qatar to the United Arab Emirates as soon as it can.
To go just after Hamas is like targeting crime syndicate, but ignoring Al Capone. Hamas needs to be dealt with first – along with the realization that any humanitarian aid allowed into Gaza supplies Hamas, not the people for whom it was well-meaningly intended. As the journalist Caroline Glick points out, the trucks are not inspected. They might be bringing in food and water – or weapons. Sadly, even if the contents are food and water, Hamas keeps them, then sparingly doles them out to whomever they want.
Moving forward, we once again need to examine how we do intelligence across the West. Perhaps Congress or a special commission can be established to identify the exact strengths and weaknesses of our intelligence community... and to discard the biased and flawed analytical tradecraft standards that have led us to where we are today.
In light of the devastating and deadly terrorist attack executed by Hamas against Israel on October 7, many are correctly calling the failure to intercept and prevent the assault an "intelligence failure." Many are especially surprised given the vaunted, basically legendary, status almost universally accorded Israel's national security apparatus.
This, however, is not the only recent intelligence failure, or failure by political leaders to anticipate emerging threats. According to a Brookings report examining the U.S. intelligence failure and reorganization following the 9/11 terrorist attacks against America:
"In the aftermath of 9/11 everyone, from elected officials and national security experts to ordinary citizens had one question: how could this happen to a nation with such an enormous and expensive military and intelligence architecture?"
Despite warnings from the U.S. Intelligence Community, the Biden administration failed to anticipate or plan for the dramatic and quick collapse of Afghanistan's government when U.S. troops were withdrawn. And while the Intelligence Community correctly and publicly warned of Russia's impending invasion of Ukraine, it failed to predict the tenacity of Ukrainian fighters defending their homeland and instead forecast an almost Afghanistan-style collapse in a matter of days. General Mark Milley, then Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, even warned lawmakers that "a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine could result in the fall of Kyiv within 72-hours and could come at a cost of 15,000 Ukrainian troop deaths and 4,000 Russian troop deaths," according to lawmakers he briefed behind closed-doors.
These misses once again have citizens asking if our intelligence agencies and political leaders are capable of keeping them safe. The short answer, unfortunately, is no. Terrorists and our enemies only have to be right once, while our intelligence services need to be correct 100% of the time. Just look at Pearl Harbor.
It is not unreasonable to expect that Israeli or US intelligence should have been able to detect the 10/7 attacks on Israel ahead of time, especially so close to the 50th anniversary of the surprise Yom Kippur War in 1973. What, then, led to the failure? While Israel will certainly review its intelligence posture to determine its shortcomings, we already know some of the challenges the Intelligence Community faces on the U.S. side.
The Middle East, Israel, Gaza, the West Bank, Iran, Syria, Hamas and Hezbollah are all high on the Intelligence Community's radar, given the volatility of the restive region. All the same, Washington's leadership also was not expecting the 10/7 attacks. A little more than a week prior, Biden's National Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan, was talking-up successes in the Middle East, allowing the U.S. to focus on other areas regions of the world. The bold conclusion made by Sullivan at the time was that "the Middle East region is quieter today than it has been in two decades."
He could not have been more wrong. Boiling just under the surface was a terrorist attack that would result in more than 1,400 Israelis killed, at least 31 Americans killed, atrocities against Israeli civilians that include beheaded babies and babies burned alive, as well as scores of Israeli and international hostages whom Hamas terrorists forcibly abducted from Israel to Gaza, presumably being held in tunnels.
The failure of the U.S. intelligence community has three components:
It has become politically charged and lost focus on its mission protecting Americans, instead engaging in partisan politics.
It continues to focus on technological intelligence collection rather than the difficult and risky world of human intelligence collection.
It continues to suffer from a lack of creativity in anticipating and understanding the new threats being developed by our enemies.
There is little doubt that the Intelligence Community has become seriously politicized. In 2016-2017, its leaders and the FBI undermined the incoming President Donald Trump by raising the specter of Russian influence over Trump. The disproven Russia hoax would go on to shadow and undermine Trump's entire time in office.
When Hunter Biden's now infamous laptop was revealed, it was the FBI and former Intelligence Community leaders who actively tried to cover it up and pass it off as a Russian disinformation campaign.
The Intelligence Community also shifted some of its focus from international threats to domestic threats -- often spurious -- while ignoring the real ticking time bomb of 5.6 million migrants flooding onto the United States through the southern border, in addition to at least 1.5 million known "gotaways" and an unknown number of unknown "gotaways."
We have also witnessed information that was accurate but which the FBI worked with social media companies to suppress, and even outright fabrications about what they claimed was disinformation, such as the Russia hoax or the authenticity of Hunter Biden's laptop; that Catholics who attend mass in Latin are "extremists," and that parents questioning what their children learn in public schools are "domestic terrorists." What really happened on January 6, 2021 is still unknown.
These efforts by the Intelligence Community all seem to target Republicans or to benefit Democrats politically -- a situation that has left many conservatives rightly worried about the political weaponization of the government.
Unfortunately, this political corruption shows no signs of abating, with the entire deep state apparently still determined to turn the Constitution on its head to "get Trump," and with former officials such as Michael Hayden, who was head of the National Security Agency and the CIA, suggesting that Republican Senator Tommy Tuberville should be removed from the human race.
A second major shortcoming, that was identified after 9/11 was, as mentioned, a U.S. over-reliance on the technological collection of information, such as satellites, cyber, and wiretapping. The Intelligence Community knew how to do these things and knew how to do them well. It was difficult and sophisticated work but carried far fewer risks than human espionage or developing spy networks.
While the intelligence may have been there, our ability to fully understand it, and our analyses, missed having insights into the humans, and their way of thinking, who were behind those "zeros and ones."
Hamas may have exploited the reliance Western security services have on technological collection. We already know that Osama bin Laden refused to use electronic communications and relied on human couriers to convey messages. They used our confidence in technological collection to their benefit. The after-action intelligence review to determine how Hamas hid its operation will undoubtedly look into this, but it appears that electronic communication on the plot was limited and coded, with the few people actually knowing the full details kept to a handful to further limit communications.
Just as the U.S. Intelligence Community did not imagine terrorists hijacking airplanes to use as missiles, it is likely the Israelis never contemplated Hamas pulling off a multipronged attack by sea, land, and air -- including the use of paragliders. But that is exactly what they did. They used low-tech bulldozers and explosives to breach Israel's border fence and then drive through the openings with trucks, motorcycles, and other equipment loaded with terrorists and weapons. Hamas fired thousands of rockets, in barrages of hundreds at a time, to overwhelm Israel's highly touted Iron Dome counter-rocket system and, having learned lessons about the effective use of drones from the Russian invasion of Ukraine, used drone-dropped munitions to take out guard towers and surveillance cameras.
While many of these tactics are not new -- Hamas had fired tens of thousands of missiles into Israel before, attacked civilians and soldiers on the streets, and crossed the border in multiple ways -- the novelty of this approach was to do all of these things at once and on a massive scale.
The biggest U.S. intelligence failure of all so far, unfortunately, has been strenuously pretending not to know that Iran, Qatar and Turkey are the kingpins behind the current attacks by Hamas on Israel. If Iran, Qatar and Turkey are to be discouraged from continuing their malign actions destabilizing the region, the price they pay needs to be steep. Hamas. Iran, Qatar and Turkey must not be let off the hook. In addition, the US must move its military assets from Al Udeid Airbase in Qatar to the United Arab Emirates as soon as it can.
The Qataris, instead of being grateful that a state-of-the-art airbase is on its soil protecting it, instead might think that they are doing the US a favor letting the airbase be there.
To go just after Hamas is like targeting crime syndicate, but ignoring Al Capone. Hamas needs to be dealt with first – along with the realization that any humanitarian aid allowed into Gaza supplies Hamas, not the people for whom it was well-meaningly intended. As the journalist Caroline Glick points out, the trucks are not inspected. They might be bringing in food and water – or weapons. Sadly, even if the contents are food and water, Hamas keeps them, then sparingly doles them out to whomever they want.
Moving forward, we once again need to examine how we do intelligence across the West. Perhaps Congress or a special commission can be established to identify the exact strengths and weaknesses of our intelligence community. It will have the old rallying cry of "never again," just as after Pearl Harbor, the 1973 Yom Kippur War, 9/11, and now the attacks of 10/7. The Intelligence Community needs to keep its eye on actual foreign threats, develop and use all forms of intelligence collection to build a robust intelligence capability, respect the ability and creativity of our adversaries, and to discard the biased and flawed analytical tradecraft standards that have led us to where we are today. Unless these changes take place, we will remain vulnerable, uncertain of our safety and security, and stuck with the knowledge the world is a much more dangerous place than we had thought.
*Peter Hoekstra is a Distinguished Senior Fellow at Gatestone Institute. He was US Ambassador to the Netherlands during the Trump administration. He also served 18 years in the U.S. House of Representatives representing the Second District of Michigan and served as Chairman and Ranking Member of the House Intelligence Committee.
© 2023 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe ... Supporting Israel and Ukraine Against Terror
Jonathan Schanzer/FDD/October 20/2023 |
Full written testimony
Video Link for the testimony https://youtu.be/tWxwUk4TvVo
INTRODUCTION
Chairman Wilson, Co-Chairman Cardin, Ranking Members Cohen and Wicker, and the members of the Helsinki Commission, on behalf of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, thank you for the opportunity to testify. Israel just suffered the worst terrorist attack in its history, Ukraine is struggling to evict Russian forces from its territory, and Taiwan watches ominously as China threatens to invade.
ISRAEL’S WAR AGAINST IRAN AND ITS PROXIES
The world woke up on October 7 to learn of a surprise attack by the Iran-backed Hamas terrorist organization. Hamas entered Israel from its base of operations in the Gaza Strip and killed more than 1,300 people, injured around 2,000, and kidnapped nearly 200, including more than a dozen Americans.
The Gaza Strip has been the source of horrific violence ever since Hamas took the coastal enclave by force in the Palestinian civil war of 2007. Hamas rule has led to periodic battles between Israel and Hamas, notably in 2008, 2012, 2014, and 2021, with sporadic flare-ups in between. The Israelis have restrained themselves in previous rounds of fighting. This will not be the case now, as the country prepares to respond to the worst terrorist attack in its 75 years of existence.
However, there is still the very real possibility that this could be the beginning of a regional war. The Islamic Republic of Iran has been fighting a proxy war against Israel for years. It has armed and funded groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) in the West Bank and Gaza, in addition to Hamas. Together, these groups possess more than 180,000 rockets and other foreboding military capabilities that could be unleashed in concert against Israel. This is what Israel, with help from the Biden administration, is endeavoring to prevent.
The Iranian-led axis has prepared for this moment, however. For several years, sporadic reports have pointed to the existence of a “nerve center” in Beirut designed to coordinate the activities of the Iran-backed terrorist groups and target Israel more efficiently.[1]
The groups have not been shy about it. On April 9, 2023, after Hamas fired 30 rockets at Israel, the leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah met in Beirut to discuss their joint strategy against Israel.[2] They released photos depicting their conversations beneath photos of former Iranian supreme leader Ruhollah Khomeini and current supreme leader Ali Khamenei. The message was unmistakable: the Iran-led axis was preparing for a coordinated war.
Hints of this nerve center’s existence were first apparent during the 2021 rocket war between Israel and Hamas. Violence simultaneously erupted in several Arab-Israeli towns, suggesting a modicum of coordination. After the war’s end, Israeli officials began noting an uptick in West Bank violence.[3] Israeli security services believe that Hezbollah (by way of Iran) is the primary source for the weapons flooding the West Bank.
To Israel’s alarm, the Biden administration has consistently pursued policies that increase the resources available to Tehran for its aggression. Through its dogged and determined efforts to reach a nuclear deal with the regime, the White House was prepared to offer significant sanctions relief that would only help the Islamic Republic replenish its coffers to arm its proxies. The recent transfer of $6 billion in a prisoner swap, along with $10 billion in other sanctions relief, is a disappointing example of how this misguided policy has contributed to the current crisis. [4] One gets a sense that the Biden administration will need to reassess its Iran policy when this crisis concludes.
ISRAEL, SYRIA, AND THE RUSSIAN BEAR
In recent years, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has thwarted Iranian designs to create a new Hezbollah-like terror proxy on the Golan Heights.[5] The Iranian regime has repeatedly tried to move assets and personnel to the Syrian border with Israel. Israel has repeatedly destroyed most, if not all of it. Iran-backed militias still operate in Syria, but they are generally deterred.
The presence of Russian forces in Syria has complicated Israeli efforts to disrupt the pipeline that delivers Iranian weapons to Hezbollah. Russian missile defense systems in particular have forced Israel to take significant precautions in the ongoing effort to prevent the smuggling of advanced Iranian precision-guided munitions (PGMs) from Syria to Lebanon, where Hezbollah may be preparing to use them. Unlike the “dumb” or unguided rockets that Hezbollah and Hamas have fired at Israel in the past, these rockets are equipped with navigation systems. They can strike targets with a 10-meter margin of error.[6]
Fortunately, the Russian presence has not significantly hindered Israel’s freedom of action in Syria. The Israeli strikes on these weapons transfers continue, often with Russian knowledge, and the number of PGMs in Hezbollah’s possession is still manageable. Whether this continues to be the case during the current conflict remains to be seen.
As for Gaza, Russia has played a somewhat ambivalent role in the current fighting. Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and offered to broker calm. Days earlier, however, Hamas thanked Putin for his support, which included a Russian-proposed United Nations Security Council resolution hostile to Israel that did not even mention the Hamas slaughter of 10/7.[7] In previous years, Moscow has fought alongside Iran and Hezbollah forces to protect the Assad regime during the Syrian civil war. Putin has also been complicit in Iranian sanctions-busting schemes that have supported Hamas and Hezbollah.[8]
UKRAINE’S WAR TO REPEL RUSSIAN AGGRESSION
Putin launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022. He believed Ukrainian resistance and Western resolve would be weak. However, Ukrainian troops and civilians alike met the Russian invaders with a fierce resistance. Moscow failed to quickly decapitate the government in Kyiv. Western materiel soon flowed in significant quantities, allowing the Ukrainians to stay in the fight and eventually regain some of their territory. And despite Russian efforts to divide the West, Ukraine’s backers have remained committed.
Unfortunately, the war in Ukraine will not end anytime soon. Putin appears determined to fight on. He seems to believe that he can outlast Western resolve. Growing skepticism toward Ukraine aid, particularly within the GOP, reinforces this belief.
Fortunately, Western sanctions have eroded the Russian economy, although defense production continues despite these measures. Thus, if Western aid for Ukraine doesn’t keep pace, Russian forces could eventually wear down Ukraine.
For the United States, this war’s stakes are high. Failing to defeat Russia’s aggression would only embolden Putin. This could negatively impact our ability to deter Iran right now, not to mention China at some point in the future, particularly as it weighs a Taiwan invasion.
Like the Israelis, the Ukrainians are not asking for American boots on the ground. They are, however, requesting the weapons they need to defend themselves. By acceding to their request, we do exceptional harm to one of America’s three primary adversaries at the cost of roughly 3.5 percent of our defense budget.[9]
RUSSIA AND IRAN UNITE
Russian-Iranian relations have deepened and broadened considerably since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began. Moscow has doubled down on its partnership with Iran to counter Western pressure and to secure arms for its war against Ukraine. Russian support in return has rendered Tehran a more potent threat to America’s interests in the Middle East.
Even before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Iran and Russia were pursuing ways to counter U.S. sanctions, such as boosting their use of dollar alternatives[10] and establishing financial clearing mechanisms outsides of the U.S.-led system.[11] In January 2023, Russia and Iran signed an agreement linking their respective alternatives to SWIFT, the Brussels-based interbank messaging systems on which most banks rely.[12]
Since the war in Ukraine’s onset, Russia has received various unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) from Iran, most notably the Shahed-136 and Shahed-131 one-way attack drones, which help Russia deplete Ukraine’s supply of interceptor missiles. Tehran even sent advisors to train Russian personnel in occupied Ukrainian territory.[13] Russia has reportedly launched over 2,000 Shahed UAVs since late summer 2022.[14]
As part of a $1 billion deal with Tehran, Moscow has sought to produce Shahed-136 UAVs domestically. Russia and Iran are reportedly cooperating to design a new engine that will increase the drone’s range and speed.[15]
Iran has supplied various other types of materiel to Russia, most importantly artillery shells and rockets.[16] According to an April 2023 Wall Street Journal report, Tehran provided Moscow with 300,000 artillery shells over the prior six months.[17] Iranian supplies may have accounted for over 15 percent of Russia’s artillery shell consumption during that period.[18]
In return for Iran’s assistance, Moscow has stepped up its support for Tehran’s military. As White House spokesman John Kirby said in December, Russia provides Iran “an unprecedented level of military and technical support that is transforming their relationship into a full-fledged defense partnership.”[19]
Tehran seeks to acquire Russian-made Su-35 fighter jets, attack helicopters, radars, and Yak-130 combat trainer aircraft, according to Kirby.[20] Iran has reportedly received at least two Yak-130 combat trainer aircraft already.[21] Moscow has also sent Tehran some captured Western weapons from Ukraine. These reportedly include Javelin and NLAW anti-tank guided missiles and Stinger MANPADS.[22]
In August 2022, a few weeks after Putin traveled to Iran in his first trip outside the former Soviet Union since Moscow’s full-scale invasion,[23] Russia launched a Khayyam remote-sensing satellite into orbit for Tehran.[24] Russia also provided Iran with cyber and other tools designed for espionage and repression.[25]
Iran-Russia military cooperation also appears to include a coordinated effort to push U.S. forces out of Syria. Senior military and intelligence officials met in November 2022 and agreed to establish a “coordination center.” As part of this effort, Iran has attacked U.S. forces.[26] Russia has repeatedly harassed U.S. manned and unmanned aircraft over Syria. Pentagon officials have raised concerns about Russian aircraft collecting intelligence on U.S. bases in Syria, warning that Russia will likely transfer the intelligence to Iran.[27]
THE LOOMING ASSAULT ON TAIWAN
Amidst this tumult, concerns are mounting about a Chinese war of aggression against Taiwan. The embattled democracy is already under intense pressure from China’s authoritarian regime. Since becoming leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in 2012, Chinese leader Xi Jinping has ramped up the mainland’s campaign against Taiwan, especially following President Tsai Ing-Wen’s 2016 election. China’s relentless maneuvering to diplomatically isolate Taiwan has pushed 10 nations to switch their allegiance from Taipei to Beijing. These and other successes, combined with the muted response from Western powers, have bolstered China’s conviction that time and geopolitics are on its side.
China’s campaign deploys all elements of its national power to systematically erode the island nation’s standing on the global stage and its stability at home. Beijing’s soft power strategy includes not merely isolating Taiwan but actively destabilizing it. In addition, China utilizes subversive tools like disinformation and electoral interference, seeking to corrode the political foundations of the state.
China rampantly employs disinformation campaigns to sow discord within Taiwan, attempting to manipulate public opinion, erode trust in the democratic process, and amplify pro-Beijing narratives.[28] These campaigns often portray reunification as inevitable and stoke fears about the implications of resisting China’s advances. The blend of cyber warfare and disinformation paints a holistic picture of how Beijing uses the digital domain in its campaign against Taiwan.
Beijing is also waging economic warfare against Taiwan right now, owing to Taiwan’s economic dependence on the mainland. In 2021, Taiwan exported $188.91 billion in goods to mainland China and Hong Kong in 2021, accounting for 42 percent of Taiwan’s total exports.[29] In comparison, U.S. trade accounts for 15 percent of Taiwanese exports. This has fostered deep ties between Taiwan’s business elite and their mainland counterparts, making Taiwan susceptible to pressure from Beijing.[30] For example, under the pretense of pest concerns, China abruptly banned Taiwanese pineapples in 2021.[31] The move was designed to hurt Taiwan’s agricultural sector, jeopardizing the livelihood of farmers. These and other targeted bans signal Beijing’s overriding intent: to utilize its significant market leverage to drive political outcomes, directly impact the livelihoods of Taiwan’s citizens, and subsequently erode the foundations of Taiwan’s democracy.
Beijing has also mounted increasingly brazen displays of military might to intimidate Taiwan. China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has escalated such displays since former U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s 2022 visit. Within a 24-hour span in mid-July, for example, 16 PLA warships approached Taiwan’s territorial waters, accompanied by over 100 Chinese sorties.[32] This heightened, regularized military activity demonstrates China’s military capabilities and facilitates psychological warfare.
Government entities offer differing time frames for a possible invasion of Taiwan. But the assessments only vary about when such an attack takes place, not if. This decision could be influenced heavily by the decisions made, and the deterrence gained or lost, by the United States in the Ukrainian and Israeli theaters.
STRATEGIC SOLIDARITY EMERGES
In the broader geopolitical landscape, a disconcerting alliance among all three of these adversaries — China, Iran, and Russia — has emerged.
Russia and Iran have shown unwavering support for China’s ambitions concerning Taiwan. At a 2022 summit between Xi and Putin, the Russian president reaffirmed, “Taiwan is an inalienable part of Chinese territory.”[33] Iran also stated that Tehran intends to support China’s “core” territorial interests, a reference to China’s claims over Taiwan.[34]
China and Russia continue to protect the Iranians at the United Nations[35] and to help the regime evade Western sanctions.[36] An appetite for Iranian oil in Moscow and Beijing helps to motivate this evasion effort, but it also clearly reflects a wider effort to weaken U.S. policy. [37] And Iran and China have given Vladimir Putin the military tools[38] and diplomatic cover he needs to wage war on Ukraine.[39]
All three of these countries continue to challenge American allies and deepen their coordination. American policy must be to deny these countries the ability to work together in a way that challenges our friends or our interests.
RECOMMENDATIONS
Confronting U.S adversaries such as Iran, China, and Russia requires long term investments, planning, and strategy that spans the defense, intelligence, economic, and social spheres. The first step is fully funding and resourcing the Department of Defense (DoD). Through years of uncertain budgets, sequestration, and short-term spending bills, DoD has lacked the means to implement long-term plans to confront major U.S. adversaries. Timely and sufficient appropriations from Congress are crucial to meet current challenges and properly invest in future capabilities and technologies.
Their absence forces DoD to find short term fixes to problems rather than allow for longer term planning and implementation. Congress needs to break this cycle of continuing resolutions and provide a more predictable stream of resources.
The United States and our key allies are also dealing with unsecure supply chains and challenging procurement pathways. Our adversaries understand this weakness and have invested heavily in consolidating supply chains they can manipulate. The United States needs a procurement strategy that addresses these vulnerabilities while enhancing U.S. and allied abilities to procure materials and technologies in high demand during conflicts.
The United States is currently supporting several allies in major military conflicts. U.S. support is critical but it is also stretching U.S. stockpiles and the domestic manufacturing base. Congress should be asking specific questions about what systems are critical right now and how Washington can provide the means for our allies to defend themselves. In the case of Israel, there are several key items Washington can provide without massive investments in new manufacturing. These include precision munitions, small-diameter bombs, Tamir interceptors used by Iron Dome batteries. The United States could also transfer its own Iron Dome batteries to Israel for the duration of the war.
To combat China’s aggressive efforts to gain sway in developing nations, Congress should support transparent infrastructure financing initiatives as an alternative to cheap — and usually corrupt — Chinese infrastructure and financing programs. At the same time, Congress should continue to strengthen the screening of large investments in the United States through the CFIUS process to ensure Chinese companies are not gaining leverage over key sectors of the U.S. economy.
Finally, I recommend that Congress quickly pass a supplemental aid bill for Ukraine that provides enough funding to last through the 2024 election. The uncertainty caused by congressional inaction inhibits U.S. and Ukrainian planning and could force Ukraine to conserve munitions out of an abundance of caution.[40] This would only benefit Russia.
On behalf of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, thank you for the opportunity to testify.
[1] “Misfired Islamic Jihad Rockets Kill Palestinian Children,” Foundation for Defense of Democracies, May 11, 2023. (https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2023/05/11/misfired-islamic-jihad-rockets-kill-palestinian-children); Bradley Bowman and Ryan Brobst, “Iran Increases Funding for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps,” Foundation for Defense of Democracies, April 29, 2022. (https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2022/04/29/iran-increases-funding-islamic-revolutionary-guard-corps); Jonathan Schanzer, “Iran-Hezbollah Intelligence Center May Help Hamas Target Israel,” Foreign Policy, September 13, 2022. (https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/09/13/iran-hezbollah-hamas-israel-beirut-lebanon-intelligence-sharing-center)
[2] Fadi Amun, “Hezbollah’s Nasrallah Meets Hamas Chief Haniyeh in Lebanon Following Rocket Barrage on Israel,” Haaretz (Israel), April 9, 2023. (https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/2023-04-09/ty-article/.premium/hezbollahs-nasrallah-meets-hamas-chief-haniyeh-in-lebanon-after-rocket-barrage-on-israel/00000187-652a-dde0-afb7-7f3b5a210000)
[3] “Israel Cracks Ring of Iran-Backed Bomb Smugglers,” Foundation for Defense of Democracies, September 5, 2023. (https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2023/09/05/israel-cracks-ring-of-iran-backed-bomb-smugglers)
[4] The White House, “Remarks by President Biden on the Terrorist Attacks in Israel,” October 10, 2023. (https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2023/10/10/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-terrorist-attacks-in-israel-2)
[5] “U.S. Treasury Sanctions Latin America-Based Hezbollah Financial Network,” Foundation for Defense of Democracies, September 13, 2023. (https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2023/09/13/u-s-treasury-sanctions-latin-america-based-hezbollah-financial-network); “IDF Conducts Raid at House of Al-Aqsa Brigades Commander in Jenin,” Foundation for Defense of Democracies, September 19, 2023. (https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2023/09/19/idf-conducts-raid-at-house-of-al-aqsa-brigades-commander-in-jenin)
[6] Jonathan Schanzer and Mark Dubowitz, “PGMs: Iran’s Precision-Guided Munitions Project in the Shadow of a Nuclear Deal,” Foundation for Defense of Democracies, September 12, 2022. (https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2022/09/12/pgms-irans-precision-guided-munitions-project-in-the-shadow-of-a-nuclear-deal)
[7] Allison Quinn, “Hamas Gives a Shout-Out to Vladimir Putin,” The Daily Beast, October 14, 2023. (https://www.thedailybeast.com/hamas-gives-a-shout-out-to-vladimir-putin); Edith M. Lederer, “UN Security Council rejects Russia’s resolution on Gaza that fails to mention Hamas,” Associated Press, October 16, 2023. (https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-un-resolutions-russia-brazil-c601d6aefe9d853428a485c9b6011830)
[8] U.S. Department of the Treasury, Press Release, “Treasury Designates Illicit Russia-Iran Oil Network Supporting the Assad Regime, Hizballah, and HAMAS,” November 20, 2018. (https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sm553); U.S. Department of the Treasury, Press Release, “Treasury Targets Oil Smuggling Network Generating Hundreds of Millions of Dollars for Qods Force and Hizballah,” May 25, 2022. (https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy0799); U.S. Department of the Treasury, Press Release, “Treasury Sanctions Oil Shipping Network Supporting IRGC-QF and Hizballah,” November 3, 2022. (https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1076)
[9] @FDD, X, September 25, 2023. (https://twitter.com/FDD/status/1706357925319430409)
[10] “Торгпред рассказал о доле взаиморасчетов России и Ирана в нацвалютах [The trade representative spoke about the share of mutual settlements between Russia and Iran in national currencies],” Ria Novosti (Russia), December 26, 2019. (https://ria.ru/20191226/1562862095.html)
[11] “Эксперт: аутсорсинг сможет облегчить торговлю Ирана и России в условиях санкций [Expert: outsourcing can facilitate trade between Iran and Russia under sanctions],” TASS (Russia), July 15, 2020. https://tass.ru/ekonomika/8967785; Russian Chamber Of Commerce And Industry Of The Russian Federation, “ИНТЕРВЬЮ: В России создана компания для ведения клиринговой торговли с Ираном – председатель РИДС (INTERVIEW: A company has been created in Russia to conduct clearing trade with Iran – Chairman of RIDS),” July 15, 2020. (https://rus-irn.tpprf.ru/ru/news/?CODE=intervyuvrossiisozdanakompaniyadlyavedeniyakliringovoytorgovlisiranompredsedatelrids_i369968); U.S. Department of the Treasury, Press Release, “Treasury Targets Oil Smuggling Network Generating Hundreds of Millions of Dollars for Qods Force and Hizballah.” May 25, 2022. (https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy0799); U.S. Department of the Treasury, Press Release, “Treasury Sanctions Oil Shipping Network Supporting IRGC-QF and Hizballah,” November 3, 2022. (https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1076); U.S. Department of the Treasury, Press Release, “Treasury Targets Oil Smuggling Network Generating Hundreds of Millions of Dollars for Qods Force and Hizballah,” May 25, 2022. (https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy0799); U.S. Department of the Treasury, Press Release, “Treasury Sanctions Oil Shipping Network Supporting IRGC-QF and Hizballah,” November 3, 2022. (https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1076)
[12] Cora Engelbrecht, “Iran and Russia move toward linking their banking systems helping both withstand Western sanctions.” The New York Times, January 31, 2023. (https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/31/world/europe/iran-russia-banks.html)
[13] Julian E. Barnes, “Iran Sends Drone Trainers to Crimea to Aid Russian Military,” The New York Times, October 18, 2022. (https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/18/us/politics/iran-drones-russia-ukraine.html)
[14] @FRHoffmann1, X, October 3, 2023. (https://twitter.com/FRHoffmann1/status/1709191699103416748)
[15] Dion Nissenbaum and Warren P. Strobel, “Moscow, Tehran Advance Plans for Iranian-Designed Drone Facility in Russia,” The Wall Street Journal, February 5, 2023. (https://www.wsj.com/articles/moscow-tehran-advance-plans-for-iranian-designed-drone-facility-in-russia-11675609087); Daniel Boffey, “Revealed: Europe’s role in the making of Russia killer drones,” The Guardian (UK), September 27, 2023. (https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/27/revealed-europes-role-in-the-making-of-russia-killer-drones)
[16] John Hardie and Ryan Brobst, “How Much Can Iranian Artillery Ammo Help Russia,” FDD’s Long War Journal, March 16, 2023. (https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2023/03/how-much-can-iranian-artillery-ammo-help-russia.php); @JohnH105, X, August 17, 2023. (https://twitter.com/JohnH105/status/1692358368889893143)
[17] Dion Nissenbaum and Benoit Faucon, “Iran Ships Ammunition to Russia by Caspian Sea to Aid Invasion of Ukraine,” The Wall Street Journal, April 24, 2023. (https://www.wsj.com/articles/iran-ships-ammunition-to-russia-by-caspian-sea-to-aid-invasion-of-ukraine-e74e8585)
[18] “Iran Sends Russia Artillery Ammunition,” Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, April 24, 2023. (https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2023/04/24/iran-sends-russia-artillery-ammunition)
[19] Aamer Madhani, Edith M. Lederer, and Zeke Miller, “US: Russia, Iran moving toward full defense ‘partnership,’” Associated Press, December 9, 2022. (https://apnews.com/article/putin-iran-government-and-politics-drones-933e27218934e7476d1a1524fc8ebf4c)
[20] Matt Berg, “Russia may supply Iran with fighter jets, Kirby says,” Politico, February 24, 2023. (https://www.politico.com/news/2023/02/24/russia-iran-jets-kirby-00084362); Laura Seligman and Alexander Ward, “New U.S. intelligence shows Russia’s deepening defense ties with Iran,” Politico, June 9, 2023. (https://www.politico.com/news/2023/06/09/united-states-security-council-russia-iran-weapons-00101191)
[21] @imp_navigator, X, September 2, 2023. (https://twitter.com/imp_navigator/status/1697911547442385137); “Russian-made combat trainer aircraft joins Iran’s Air Force,” Associated Press, September 2, 2023. (https://apnews.com/article/iran-russia-fighter-drone-495c0018a9af2443e767b8ccd39801e4)
[22] Natasha Bertrand, “Russia has been sending some US-provided weapons captured in Ukraine to Iran, sources say,” CNN¸ March 14, 2023. (https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/10/politics/russia-iran-ukraine-weapons/index.html); Deborah Haynes, “Russia flew €140m in cash and captured Western weapons to Iran in return for deadly drones, source claims,” Sky News¸ November 9, 2022. (https://news.sky.com/story/russia-gave-eur140m-and-captured-western-weapons-to-iran-in-return-for-deadly-drones-source-claims-12741742)
[23] Guy Faulconbridge, “Putin forges ties with Iran’s supreme leader in Tehran talks,” Reuters, July 19, 2022. (https://www.reuters.com/world/putin-visits-iran-first-trip-outside-former-ussr-since-ukraine-war-2022-07-18)
[24] “Russia puts Iranian satellite into orbit,” Reuters, August 9, 2022. (https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-launches-iranian-satellite-into-space-under-shadow-western-concerns-2022-08-09). Joby Warrick and Ellen Nakashima, “Russia to launch spy satellite for Iran but use it first over Ukraine,” The Washington Post, August 4, 2023. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/08/04/russia-iran-spy-satellite). This was not the first time Russia and Iran had cooperated in space, however. In 2021, Moscow reportedly sent Tehran a Russian-made Kanopus-V imaging satellite and trained Iranian ground crews. See also: Joby Warrick, “Russia is preparing to supply Iran with an advanced satellite system that will boost Tehran’s ability to surveil military targets, officials say,” The Washington Post, June 10, 2021. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/iran-russia-satellite/2021/06/10/d28978f0-c9ab-11eb-81b1-34796c7393af_story.html)
[25] Dov Lieber, Benoit Faucon, and Michael Amon, “Russia Supplies Iran With Cyber Weapons as Military Cooperation Grows,” The Wall Street Journal, March 27, 2023. (https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-supplies-iran-with-cyber-weapons-as-military-cooperation-grows-b14b94cd)
[26] Joby Warrick and Evan Hill, “Iran plans to escalate attacks against U.S. troops in Syria, documents show,” The Washington Post, June 1, 2023. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/06/01/discord-leaks-iran-russia-syria)
[27] Haley Britzky and Oren Lieberman, “Russia flies surveillance flight over US base in Syria, official says,” CNN, July 14, 2023. (https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/14/politics/us-russia-syria-surveillance/index.html); J.P. Lawrence, “Russian plans flying over US bases in Syria may be sharing intel, top general says,” Stars and Stripes, June 9, 2023. (https://www.stripes.com/theaters/middle_east/2023-06-09/russia-syria-base-surveillance-10383312.html)
[28] “Report Exposes China-Linked Disinformation Targeting Taiwan’s Presidential Election and COVID-19 Response,” International Republican Institute, August 25, 2020. (https://www.iri.org/news/report-exposes-china-linked-disinformation-targeting-taiwans-presidential-election-and-covid-19-response); Sheryn Lee, “Disinformation and democratic resilience in Taiwan,” East Asia Forum, March 28, 2023. (https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2023/03/28/disinformation-and-democratic-resilience-in-taiwan)
[29] Evelyn Cheng, “Taiwan’s trade with China is far bigger than its trade with the U.S.,” CNBC, August 4, 2022. (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/05/taiwans-trade-with-china-is-far-bigger-than-its-trade-with-the-us.html)
[30] Shu Keng and Gunter Schubert, “Agents of Taiwan-China Unification? The Political Roles of Taiwanese Business People in the Process of Cross-Strait Integration,” Asian Survey, March/April 2010. (https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1525/as.2010.50.2.287?typeAccessWorkflow=login)
[31] Christina Thornell, “How China uses fruit to punish Taiwan,” Vox, April 1, 2022. (https://www.vox.com/23006359/china-taiwan-import-ban-fruit-pineapple-atemoya)
[32] Craig Singleton and Chase Moabery, “Beijing Mounts Record-Breaking Warship Deployments Around Taiwan as Island’s Presidential Election Approaches,” Foundation for Defense of Democracies, July 21, 2023. (https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2023/07/21/beijing-mounts-record-breaking-warship-deployments-around-taiwan-as-islands-presidential-election-approaches)
[33] “Russia considers Taiwan inalienable part of China, opposes its independence — statement,” TASS (Russia), March 21, 2023. (https://tass.com/world/1592503)
[34] “China, Iran to support each other on core interests: Chinese FM,” Xinhua (China), August 20, 2023. (https://english.news.cn/20230820/078929decffa44e89b33751fe39cc35e/c.html)
[35] Michelle Nichols, “Russia, China build case at U.N. to protect Iran from U.S. sanctions threat,” Reuters, June 9, 2020. (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-iran-russia-china-idUSKBN23G2YR)
[36] Jonathan Tirone and Golnar Motevalli, “Russia and Iran Are Building a Trade Route That Defies Sanctions,” Bloomberg, December 21, 2022. (https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2022-russia-iran-trade-corridor/#xj4y7vzkg)
[37] Michael Crowley, “U.S. Penalizes Chinese Companies for Aiding Iran’s Oil Exports,” The New York Times, September 29, 2022. (https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/29/us/politics/iran-sanctions-china-oil.html)
[38] Karen DeYoung and Missy Ryan, “Russia says China agreed to secretly provide weapons, leaked documents show,” The Washington Post, April 13, 2023. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/04/13/russia-china-weapons-leaked-documents-discord); “Iran’s Deepening Strategic Alliance with Russia,” United States Institute of Peace, The Iran Primer, April 25, 2023. (https://iranprimer.usip.org/blog/2023/feb/24/iran%E2%80%99s-deepening-strategic-alliance-russia)
[39] Michael Crowley, “Blinken Says Xi’s Visit to Moscow Offers ‘Diplomatic Cover’ for Putin’s War Crimes,” The New York Times, March 20, 2023. (https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/20/world/europe/blinken-xi-russia-war-crimes.html#:~:text=Blinken%20Says%20Xi’s%20Visit%20to,accountable%20for%20atrocities%20in%20Ukraine.)
[40] John Hardie and Bradley Bowman, “Congressional inaction damages both Ukrainian and US militaries,” Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, October 6, 2023. (https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2023/10/06/congressional-inaction-damages-both-ukrainian-and-us-militaries)