Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on October 04-05/2023
Lebanon is not for sale’: Minister calls for hard-line approach to Syrian refugees
Counting the costs: Lebanon's varied banking commissions spark controversy
Minister Hammieh meets General Khair over upcoming season of rains
TikTok abduction schemes: Criminal gangs target Syrians and Lebanese citizens
Child with special needs found in Achrafieh
Minister Hammieh meets General Khair over upcoming season of rains
US Hands Over Seized Arms Ammunition to Ukraine Amidst Concerns
'Stalemate': One thing Lebanese leaders seem to agree on
BDL bans fee deduction as banks accused of charging 'fresh accounts'
'Our country is not for sale': Mawlawi dubs Syrian presence a security threat
Reports: Arab League official in Paris for talks on Lebanon
Latest developments in Qatari envoy's ongoing tour

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on October 04-05/2023
Holy Chriain Sites in Nagorno-Karabakh
Azerbaijan eyes Iran, Armenia borderlands after 'voluntary' exodus from Nagorno-Karabakh
Iran's Khamenei says normalising Israel ties is a losing bet - state media
Turkey Threatens Intensified Airstrikes Against Kurdish Targets Amid Allegations
Turkey says Ankara attack assailants trained in Syria
Turkey's Fidan declares all PKK, YPG facilities in Syria, Iraq 'legitimate targets'
Israel, Azerbaijan announce landmark deal for sale of two satellites
A lot of work' remains on Saudi-Israel deal, says Abraham Accords advisor
Iran, KSA to reschedule Asian Champions League soccer match after walkout
Turkey hits Kurdish militant sites in Iraq, detains 1,000 people after Ankara blast
US Hands Over Seized Arms Ammunition to Ukraine Amidst Concerns
US warns of Chinese global disinformation campaign
Bus plummets 50 feet from elevated road in Venice, killing 21 people in fiery crash
Republican hardliners oust US House speaker in historic vote
Jews spitting beside Christian pilgrims in Holy Land sparks outrage
Israeli police arrest five for hostile gestures toward Christians
West Bank city pins tourism hopes on UNESCO listing

Titles For The Latest English LCCC  analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on October 04-05/2023
The Genocide of Christians: Islamic Terrorists vs Muslim Statesmen/Raymond Ibrahim/October 04/2023
Erdogan is Here to Stay/Sinan Ciddi/ The National Interest/October 04/2023
Memo to Biden: The United Nations Won’t Love You Back/Richard Goldberg and Enia Krivine/National Review/October 04/2023
Putin's Man in Ankara: Erdoğan/Burak Bekdil/Gatestone Institute/October 04/2023
West’s unlimited support for Ukraine beginning to waver/Mohamed Chebaro/Arab News/October 04, 2023

Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on October 04-05/2023
Lebanon is not for sale’: Minister calls for hard-line approach to Syrian refugees
Arab News/October 04/2023
BEIRUT: Bassam Mawlawi, Lebanon’s caretaker interior minister, said on Wednesday that his country “will not allow the random Syrian presence.”He claimed that “a large percentage, exceeding 30 percent, of various and major crimes are committed by Syrians in Lebanon” and “cooperation” is required “to preserve our environment and our country’s identity.”His comments came against the backdrop of growing concern in Lebanon about the increasing numbers of Syrian refugees crossing the border. “Lebanon cannot carry on with the same leniency toward the Syrian presence,” Mawlawi said. “We must limit the number of Syrians present in each apartment and we will not allow more than one family to reside in it.” The aim “is not to regulate the Syrian presence but rather to limit it,” he added.
The number of Syrian refugees officially registered with the UNHCR, the UN’s refugee agency, had fallen to 805,326 by the end of March, but officials believes the true figure is double that. Lebanese authorities, who asked the UN agency to stop registering new refugees in 2015, estimate the total number of Syrians in the country now exceeds 2 million. They fear the presence of so many refugees will cause a shift in the demographic balance along sectarian lines. During meetings with governors and mayors, Mawlawi asked authorities not to sign any contracts for Syrians who do not possess proper, legal documentation, and called for Lebanese laws to be applied in full to Syrians just as they are to Lebanese citizens. “We will not accept the exploitation of our country and changing its demographics in exchange for money,” Mawlawi said.
“Lebanon is not for sale and we are working as a permanent beehive to address the crisis and stand against the immense harm inflicted on Lebanon, the Lebanese people, and Lebanese demographics as a result of the chaos and unacceptable behavior due to the Syrian displacement.”Syrians are said to run about 4,000 businesses in central and western Bekaa. In the town of Bar Elias alone, about 1,700 out of a total of 2,000 are run by Syrians. In Taalabaya, there are 450, and in Qab Elias, 350.
As part of the tightening of controls on refugees, the Ministry of Industry on Wednesday renewed a warning to factory owners that they must not hire Syrians who do not possess the required legal documents and permits, otherwise they could lose their licenses to operate. The crisis caused by the growing numbers of Syrians entering Lebanon via illegal crossings along the northern and eastern borders has escalated in the past two weeks. Concerns grew further when Lebanese security services seized weapons last week during raids on refugee camps in the Bekaa Valley. The anti-refugee sentiment in Lebanon was further fueled by a statement on Tuesday from the official spokesperson for the EU in the Middle East and North Africa, Luis Miguel Bueno, who said. “There is no return for Syrian refugees at the present time and they must be assisted in Lebanon. The conditions for refugees to return to Syria with dignity and voluntarily are not available.”Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah earlier sparked controversy when he suggested Lebanon should adopt a policy of “not preventing Syrian refugees from sailing toward Europe.”He said: “Let them board ships, not just rubber boats, and head toward Europe, and this will lead to an inevitable outcome, which is that European countries will come submissively to Beirut.”On Wednesday, MP Ghayath Yazbeck said the Lebanese Forces Party’s parliamentary bloc is considering signing a parliamentary petition demanding the closure of the UNHCR office in Lebanon, “because the commission is now promoting the new Syrian occupation of Lebanon.”He blamed the recent Syrian influx on the Lebanese government, “which does not mobilize its powers to control this situation and mitigate its impact,” and criticized the Free Patriotic Movement for its refusal to organize a Cabinet session to discuss possible solutions to this imminent threat. A number of organizations have emerged with the aim of confronting or addressing the presence of so many Syrian refugees in Lebanon, one of which is the National Campaign to Repatriate Displaced Syrians.
One of its leaders, Maroun Al-Khauli, sent a letter to UNHCR’s regional office in which he accused it of working to “settle Syrian refugees by supporting them financially and morally, encouraging them not to return to their land, and urging them to integrate into Lebanese society.”As the unrest grows, Lebanese security agencies have warned of “kidnapping operations targeting Syrian people by gangs that lure them outside Lebanese borders to avoid detection, through fake social media accounts, most notably on TikTok.”These gangs “deceive lured Syrians into believing that they can secure their travel from Lebanon to European countries, either through illegal routes or by securing travel visas abroad, in exchange for a financial fee,” the General Directorate of Internal Security Forces said. “The victims are kidnapped upon arrival at the border areas with Lebanon, then transported outside the Lebanese borders and detained inside rooms within Syrian territory near the borders. There, they are brutally tortured and the torture acts are filmed, and photos and videos are sent to the kidnapped person’s family to pressure them and expedite the payment of a ransom in exchange for their release.”In the past two days, video clips of one of these victims being tortured spread on social media but news organizations have not broadcast them because of the graphic nature of the footage.

Counting the costs: Lebanon's varied banking commissions spark controversy
LBCI/October 04/2023
When Lebanon was experiencing "normal banking days," Banque du Liban did not intervene in the commissions charged by banks to their clients. It was considered a private relationship between the bank and the client, where the client could either accept these commissions or choose to deal with another bank.
However, since the current banking situation is not sound and difficulties are faced by every client wishing to transfer their account from one bank to another, mainly due to the proliferation of complaints related to high commissions, particularly in dollars and "fresh dollars," Banque du Liban took action. It issued a circular requesting that no new commissions be imposed that were not in place before October 31, 2019, preparing a list of these commissions to be published and prohibiting the imposition of any commissions not authorized in this list. The Banking Control Commission is responsible for monitoring this matter. The commissions charged by banks are not uniform among all banks; each bank determines the value and type as it sees fit. Some commissions in certain banks have reached $100 on some accounts and $25 for a certificate for an embassy, for example. Banking sources stated that banks need these commissions to meet various demands, including securing dollars for ATMs, employee salaries, and IT companies. They argued that if they do not want to pay these commissions, they should return the bank's money. These sources also noted that some banks may have exaggerated raising the value of certain commissions, which can be addressed with those banks. Implementing this broadly across all banks could lead banks to cease providing these services. The Association of Banks will discuss this circular, although when some banks contacted Banque du Liban for clarification, they were told that consultations had taken place with the association. It later became clear that consultations had only occurred with some banks that had imposed high commissions.

Minister Hammieh meets General Khair over upcoming season of rains
LBCI/October 04/2023
Caretaker Minister of Public Works Ali Hammieh discussed on Wednesday with the head of the Higher Relief Committee, General Mohammad Khair, the collaboration between the ministry and the committee. The two emphasized the need to maintain and strengthen communication during the current season of rains and storms.

TikTok abduction schemes: Criminal gangs target Syrians and Lebanese citizens
LBCI/October 04/2023
The TikTok application is being used as a means to lure, kidnap, torture, and extort Syrians and Lebanese citizens, as well as their families, for a financial ransom in exchange for their release. There are at least two kidnapped persons in the hands of Lebanese-Syrian kidnapping gangs located in Syrian villages near Qasr and Hermel in northern Bekaa. The actual number could be higher, according to one of the Lebanese victims who was recently released after she was kidnapped with her daughter following close monitoring by the Information Branch of the Internal Security Forces (ISF) and pressure from the Lebanese Army, as the kidnappers were known Lebanese individuals. The first trick begins with these criminal gangs creating fake social media accounts, notably on the TikTok application, where most victims are targeted. The second trick involves using these accounts to convince victims that the operators can secure their travel from Lebanon to European countries through illegal means or by obtaining foreign visas in exchange for a monetary fee. Once lured, victims are directed to border areas, where they are kidnapped and transported into Syria. They are then held in rooms located near the border, where they are subjected to brutal torture. Images of their torture and videos are sent to their families to pressure them into paying a financial ransom for their release. These abduction operations have ended either with the release of some of the kidnapped individuals without a ransom or with others paying substantial sums, often tens of thousands of dollars. It is important to note that there is no official record of the number of kidnapped individuals, as some victims do not report their cases to the authorities. Additionally, the detention point is within Syrian border villages. The Internal Security Forces have repeatedly warned of these operations and arrested individuals involved in these criminal activities. However, such operations have resurfaced in recent times. Therefore, the ISF cautions against becoming victims of these criminal gangs. They urge individuals not to fall for unreliable accounts and false advertisements that could endanger their lives. They also request people to report such cases to their nearest branch or through the emergency number 112.

Child with special needs found in Achrafieh
LBCI/October 04/2023
The General Directorate of Internal Security Forces circulated on Wednesday an image of an unidentified minor found on October 3, 2023, in the Achrafieh area - Pierre Gemayel Boulevard. The child, who has special needs, is unable to speak or indicate his place of residence, and no documents identifying him were found in his possession. Security forces have urged anyone with information about him or his family to come forward to the Tariq al-Sham police station branch in the Beirut Police Unit or contact the number 01/611019 to facilitate his identification and retrieval.

Minister Hammieh meets General Khair over upcoming season of rains
LBCI/October 04/2023
Caretaker Minister of Public Works Ali Hammieh discussed on Wednesday with the head of the Higher Relief Committee, General Mohammad Khair, the collaboration between the ministry and the committee. The two emphasized the need to maintain and strengthen communication during the current season of rains and storms.

US Hands Over Seized Arms Ammunition to Ukraine Amidst Concerns
AFP/October 04/2023
The US military announced on Wednesday that it has delivered seized small-arms ammunition to Ukraine, originally intercepted while being transported from Iranian forces to Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen. This move signals a potential increase in providing Ukraine with additional confiscated military equipment, raising questions about Washington's ability to continue arming Kyiv, given the opposition from staunch Republican lawmakers.  The US Central Command (CENTCOM) stated in a release that "the US government has transferred approximately 1.1 million rounds of 7.62 mm caliber ammunition to the Ukrainian armed forces" on Monday.

'Stalemate': One thing Lebanese leaders seem to agree on
Naharnet/October 04/2023
The presidential juncture seems to have reached a dead-end. This is what Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea told L'Orient-Le Jour, in remarks published Wednesday. This is also what Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah hinted at on Monday, when he said that "there is nothing clear or new in the near future" regarding the presidential file. Geagea accused again Hezbollah of obstructing the presidential vote, after Nasrallah accused the opposition of wasting the "chance" to engage in dialogue "due to bickering and arrogance." "It's not a dialogue, but a show," Geagea said, as he blamed Hezbollah and its allies of trying to impose their candidate. "We are a bloc of 40 MPs, we don't have enough votes to elect a president," he admitted. "But we are open to discuss a third candidate and we have no veto on Army chief Gen. Joseph Aoun," he added.
Geagea went on to accuse Hezbollah of refusing to cooperate with the French envoy regarding a third candidate, and asked Berri to call for a president election session, since his call for dialogue has failed. Kataeb leader Sami Gemayel also said Tuesday that both French and Qatari initiatives will fail if Hezbollah insists on its candidate, instead of meeting the opposition halfway. "The truth is not that the Lebanese are in disagreement. The truth is that one party is refusing but to impose its candidate," he charged, claiming that this is why all foreign initiatives to break the presidential impasse are doomed to fail.

BDL bans fee deduction as banks accused of charging 'fresh accounts'
Naharnet/October 04/2023
The Central Bank has issued a circular preventing banks from deducting new fees from bank accounts created prior to October 2019. The Bank also asked commercial banks to disclose accurate information about the “real cost” and mechanism of any fees imposed on clients, warning that the Central Bank’s Banking Control Commission will oversee the implementation of the circular and will penalize any violating banks. “The banks received the circular with a lot of dismay, but they are almost certain that the Banking Control Commission might not be strict in enforcing the circular, seeing as it comprises members who are in collusion with the banks,” highly informed sources told the Nidaa al-Watan newspaper in remarks published Wednesday. “The banks stress that they need these fees for spending on the implementation of Circular 158 and on their operational costs,” the sources said, revealing that “some banks have started deducting from fresh accounts (opened after October 2019) to cover their expenses.”“The Control Commission know this and there is a report in this regard before the Central Council, but there is tight confidentiality, because revealing these violations to the public would undermine confidence in fresh accounts and their beneficiaries would scramble to withdraw the deposits,” the sources added. The sources also noted that, should it be implemented, the new circular will put certain banks on the brink of declaring their bankruptcy and will push others to lay out employees en masse, shut down additional branches and scale down operations to the lowest possible level.

'Our country is not for sale': Mawlawi dubs Syrian presence a security threat
Naharnet/October 04/2023
Caretaker Interior Minister Bassam Mawlawi on Wednesday warned that the Syrian presence in Lebanon has become a “security threat,” warning municipalities and mayors against being lax in reining in violations committed by Syrians. “The issue of the heavy Syrian presence in Lebanon exceeds the infrastructure’s capacity and the state and citizens cannot tolerate this presence,” Mawlawi said at a press conference. “A large number of various and major crimes are being committed by Syrians in Lebanon with a percentage that is above 30% and this issue requires cooperation so that we preserve our society and our country’s image and identity,” the minister added. “We cannot remain in a state of laxity or inattention towards the Syrian presence and we have told all municipalities that we will hold accountable every person who is negligent towards his people and town,” Mawlawi went on to say. “We will not allow chaotic Syrian presence,” he pledged, calling on municipalities to “submit periodic reports every 15 days about what they did in terms of suppressing and removing the violations of the Syrian presence.” The minister added: “Our country is not for sale and we will not accept this matter. We will not accept to overlook the interest of our country in return for certain aid or money from whichever side they might come from.”“We want a plan to repatriate the refugees within a clear timeframe, our meetings are not aimed at organizing the Syrian presence, and we will not accept any aid aimed at overlooking any illegal Syrian presence,” Mawlawi vowed.

Reports: Arab League official in Paris for talks on Lebanon
Naharnet/October 04/2023
A senior Arab League official has arrived in the French capital Paris to discuss the Lebanese file, diplomatic sources in Paris said. The Arab official “might meet over the coming hours with French and Saudi officials involved in the Lebanese file in an attempt to remove the obstacles that are still preventing Lebanese consensus over a presidential candidate,” Asharq newspaper quoted the sources as saying.

Latest developments in Qatari envoy's ongoing tour
Naharnet/October 04/2023
Qatari envoy Jassem Bin Fahad Al-Thani, who has been in Lebanon since weeks to help the crisis-hit country break its presidential impasse, is meeting with Lebanese leaders away from the spotlight. Al-Thani has met with Marada leader and Hezbollah's presidential candidate Suleiman Franjieh, Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea, Free Patriotic Movement leader Jebran Bassil, and former Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblat, media reports said. As he tries to find a third candidate, other than the current presidential candidates Franjieh and former minister Jihad Azour, Al-Thani has reportedly suggested the nomination of acting General Security chief Brig. Gen. Elias Baissari many times during his meetings. Geagea, in an interview with L'orient-Le Jour denied that Al-Thani has suggested candidates. "The Qataris are not proposing names," Geagea said. Meanwhile MTV said that during his meeting with Al-Thani, Jumblat has expressed his readiness to cooperate with any effort and has said that he has no veto against any candidate. Media reports had claimed that Al-Thani has tried to convince Franjieh to withdraw from the presidential race, while a report in Nidaa al-Watan newspaper quoted French Envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian as saying that Franjieh's nomination has ended.

Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on October 04-05/2023
Holy Chriain Sites in Nagorno-Karabakh
Shah Fayad/Facebook/October 04/2023
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/122825/122825/
“If Azerbaijan claims that Artsakh is its territory, why did they build Armenian churches in (the region of what is now called Azerbaijani)?” There was no country on this planet called Azerbaijan before 1918. Where was Azerbaijan when a monastery was built in Artsakh in the 4th century? Who built Tigranakert, founded in 80 BC?
Gandzasar Monastery (4th century) and St. Hovhannes Mkrtich Church (1216-1238)
Dadivank (4th century) and (9th-11th centuries)
Amaras Monastery (4th century)
Saint George of Tsitsernavank (4th century)
Gtchavank (4th-13th centuries)
Monastery of Yeghesi the Apostle (Grevshtik) (5th century), Matagis
White Cross of Vancassar (5th century)
Qatru Dezabait and Saint Mary Monastery (5th century)
Wild Bread (17th century)
Makhranis Bab Akhte Monastery (17th century - 17th century)
Saint Hakopavank of Kolatak (9th century)
Saint Saviour of Zori (9th century).
Saint Stephen of Tsmakahogh (9th-10th century)
Spitak Cross Monastery in Hadrut Vank village (10th century)
Chartari Desert Yegesha Kosi (12th Round)
Saint George of Zankatagh (12th century)
Khotavank (12-13th century)
Desert of Virgin Mary in Karvachar (12th-13th centuries)
Saint Paul's Savior (12-13th century)
Shushkavank Saint Mary (13th century)
Horeca Monastery (13th century)
Kavakavank (14th century)
The Gospel of Saint Gaien (1616)
The Holy Resurrection of Hadrut (1621).
Peromachine (1641)
Holy Mary of the Gospel (1651)
Saint Stephen of the Cross (1654)
New church of Chouchi (1655)
Saint Pandaleon of Berdadzor (Parin Pij) (1658)
Desert of the Jevondiants (1658)
Haki Minas Street (1673)
St. Gregory's Church in Heerherr (1676)
Tsakuri Tsakhkavank Street. Marie (1682)
Yeretzmanek Monastery (1691)
Kashunik Masrik church (1694)
Saint Saviour Desert (Nebt) (17th century)
Saint Stephen (17th century)
Bufurkhan Monastery complex (17th century)
Saint Hovhannes Makardic of the Line (1736)
Holy Mother of God (1740)”

Azerbaijan eyes Iran, Armenia borderlands after 'voluntary' exodus from Nagorno-Karabakh
Amberin Zaman/Al-Monitor/October 04/2023
The convoys snaked for miles along mountain passes as the mass exodus of Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh, a majority Armenian enclave that is formally part of Azerbaijan, continued to unfold. Western leaders wrung their hands but did nothing to stop it. With the few belongings they could retrieve — mattresses, refrigerators, pots and pans — piled precariously on their battered Soviet-era cars, over 100,000 people, almost triple the population of Lichtenstein, fled the contested region where Armenians dwelled for millennia until Azerbaijan first starved them under a nine-month-long blockade then attacked them on Sept. 19 in what it called an “anti-terror operation.”The effective ethnic cleansing of an entire population in less than two weeks marked one of the largest civilian displacements in the South Caucasus since the collapse of the Soviet Union and a geopolitical shift of seismic proportions that empowers Turkey, weakens Iran and puts Armenia’s fledgling democracy at risk. For most Armenians, it was — as Armenian political analyst Tigran Grigoryan put it — “the greatest catastrophe to befall our people since the genocide of the Ottoman Armenians in 1915.” Yet the story has already vanished from international headlines. By Sunday, when Western media and aid organizations were finally allowed into Stepanakert, the region's capital, practically all of Nagorno-Karabakh’s estimated 120,000 Armenians had left. The clutch of the elderly and disabled who remained acknowledged they had not been “forced” to leave by Azerbaijani authorities.
On paper, it is true. Azerbaijan did not order any Armenians to leave. Lest there be any doubt, Baku’s well-oiled propaganda machine flooded social media with pictures of Azerbaijani forces handing chocolates to the very same children it deprived of the most basic foodstuffs for months as they crossed into Armenia. Yet it ensured that life was so miserable that few would opt to stay. Indeed, even as Azerbaijani authorities rebuffed claims of ethnic cleansing, insisting their forces had struck “legitimate military targets,” eyewitness accounts of rape and indiscriminate shelling that wounded and killed children began to emerge. “There are grounds to believe that war crimes occurred in four villages — Taghavard, Haterk, Vardadzor and Kyulagagh — on the first day of the assault,” said Eric Hacopian, who is affiliated with the Civilitas Foundation, an independent nonprofit based in the Armenian capital, Yerevan. “But survivors are too scared to talk,” Hacopian told Al-Monitor. The International Committee of the Red Cross has begun investigating reports that hundreds of civilians, many of them children, remain missing.
Azerbaijan showed few signs of contrition as it named a street in Stepanakert on Tuesday after Enver Pasha, the Young Turk leader who is seen as one of the main architects of the Armenian genocide.
Outside a government registration center for refugees in Goris, a mountain valley close to the Lachin corridor linking Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia, a sea of men, women and children clutched their belongings, looking exhausted and dazed. An old woman lay slumped in a rickety wheelchair.
Teenage volunteers pressed water bottles into the refugees' hands while others handed out used clothing. Inside a tent pitched by the UN’s World Food Program, refugees wolfed down bowls of chicken soup. “Join us for the next course: borsch,” said Movses Poghosyan, director of the local charity House of Hope, his voice seesawing between hilarity and grief.
“We were hiding in the basement without food and water for three days. The shelling was so loud. We were terrified; the children cried nonstop,” said Vera Antonyan, a mother of four, as she cradled her 7-month-old daughter Gabriella, who was born during the blockade. The family had just arrived from Stepanakert after a 14-hour drive. “For months I could not find food for my baby, and now this,” Antonyan lamented, as her mother-in-law, Marine Karapetyan, who worked as a cleaning lady in a children’s hospital, broke down in tears.
Nineteen-year-old Maria Arakelyan — an aspiring dressmaker from the village of Karmishuka who appeared so malnourished that she looked 12 — tried to put a brave face on her plight. “We will return,” she said, gesturing to her three siblings. Her father, Artyom, who grew vegetables for a living, angrily interjected. “I left my boy’s grave there,” he said of his son who had died fighting in the previous war in 2020 in which Azerbaijan wrested back territories occupied by Armenia in the early 1990s together with parts of Nagorno-Karabakh. “It’s all Pashinyan’s fault. Next, he will give them Yerevan.”
Armenian roulette
Nikol Pashinyan, the Armenian prime minister and a former journalist, led the mass protests in 2018 that dislodged the latest Kremlin-backed kleptocrat, Serzh Sargsyan, who had kept the country mired in poverty and repression. Armenia’s first retail politician has since been waging war against the old elites and modernizing the country with shiny new roads and hospitals. Per capita income doubled as IT startups boomed. Yerevan, once a gloomy post-Soviet backwater, brims with life. A crimson Ferrari crawled along Pushkin Avenue on a recent evening as designer-clad Armenians sipped cocktails in posh sidewalk cafes. The capital is ringed with new high rises boasting views of Mount Ararat across the border in Turkey. The influx of young Russian professionals following the invasion of Ukraine has given the economy a further boost.
Pashinyan was so popular that he was reelected in 2021 despite Armenia’s crushing defeat by Azerbaijan in the 44-day-long war the year prior. Over 3,800 Armenian soldiers died, an unbearably high toll for a country of 2.9 million with a declining birthrate.
Pashinyan’s efforts to move Armenia away from Russia to the West raised hopes that the country would grow irrevocably prosperous and democratic. For Pashinyan, this involved several risky moves. Under a peace deal brokered by Russia in November 2020, Armenia formally renounced all claims to Nagorno-Karabakh, which is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan. It demanded, however, that the ethnic rights of its majority Armenians who ran a de facto state there called Artsakh for the past 30 years be guaranteed.
Azerbaijan has rejected Nagorno-Karabakh's demands for autonomy and, with no Armenians left, the point is now moot.
Pashinyan also reached out to Armenia’s historic tormentor, Turkey, whose killer drones and military advisers clinched Baku’s 2020 victory and whose Ottoman forebears murdered over a million Armenians in what is acknowledged by numerous countries, including the United States, as genocide. The “normalization process” was meant to result in the establishment of diplomatic relations with Ankara and the reopening of land borders sealed by Turkey during the first Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, during which Armenia and Azerbaijan committed war crimes and acts of ethnic and cultural erasure. However, a vanquished Azerbaijan “undoubtedly came off worse,” according to Thomas de Waal, the author of "Black Garden," a historical account of that conflict.
Russia’s setbacks in Ukraine further emboldened Pashinyan. He has deepened security ties with the United States. Armenia held joint military exercises with US forces even as fighting erupted in Nagorno-Karabakh. “There is a lot more going on behind the scenes,” said a senior Armenian official speaking anonymously to Al-Monitor. The official declined to elaborate.
Since November, in a further bid to sideline Russia, Secretary of State Antony Blinken hosted three rounds of peace talks with the foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan while cheering on Ankara’s engagement with Yerevan.
In May, Pashinyan hinted that he might pull out of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, Russia’s version of NATO. In early September, his wife, Anna, traveled to Ukraine to deliver humanitarian aid for the first time since the war began. Photos of her posing with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his spouse, Olena, will not have amused Russia’s Vladimir Putin. In a further escalation, Armenia’s parliament voted Tuesday to join the International Criminal Court, a move described by Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov as “extremely hostile.” Countries that have signed and ratified the Rome Statute that created the ICC are bound to arrest Putin, who was indicted for war crimes in Ukraine if he sets foot on their soil. The same day, French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna said Paris had agreed to a deal to supply French hardware to the Armenian military.
Can Pashinyan’s gamble pay off?
Red lines breached
During a Sept. 14 hearing at the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Acting Assistant Secretary of State for Europe and Eurasian Affairs Yuri Kim suggested it had. She noted that Blinken’s “leadership has yielded results” and that Armenia and Azerbaijan had made “progress on a peace agreement that could stabilize the region.” Kim warned, however, that the United States “will not countenance any action or effort — short term or long term — to ethnically cleanse or commit other atrocities against the Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh. … We have also made it abundantly clear that the use of force is not acceptable. We give this committee our assurance that these principles will continue to guide our efforts in this region.” Five days later, Azerbaijan attacked Nagorno-Karabakh.
Kim and Samantha Power, the USAID administrator and author of a book pressing for recognition of the Armenian genocide, rushed to Yerevan the following day. The largely symbolic visit did nothing to change the facts on the ground. On Sept. 26, the leaders of the Republic of Artsakh formally surrendered, ending their decades-long quest for independence as Armenians continued to pour out of the enclave.
EU leaders have since aired anger at Azerbaijan’s “betrayal.” Yet Azerbaijan has not faced any sanctions and there are few signs that it will. The Europeans have grown more dependent on the energy-rich state since the war on Ukraine led to sanctions on Russian oil and gas sales. In 2022, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen flew to Baku where she hailed Azerbaijan as a “trustworthy partner” and struck a deal to double EU imports of Azerbaijani gas by 2027. On Tuesday, European Council President Charles Michel said he was “disappointed” with Azerbaijan and that it needed to show “goodwill” and respect international law to “protect the entire population of Azerbaijan, including the Armenian population,” never mind that there are virtually no Armenians left inside Azerbaijani territory. Still, Azerbaijan remained "a partner," he intoned.
The framing of the Nagorno-Karabakh tragedy as a humanitarian crisis is already in full swing. “Western governments will send aid to clear their consciences and go back to business as usual,” the senior Armenian official observed.
Bye Bye, Russia?
Cynics might argue that it’s all for the best. Now that the Nagorno-Karabakh issue has been “resolved,” there is no longer a need for an estimated 2,000 Russian peacekeepers deployed in the enclave under the 2020 cease-fire accord.
“Destroying the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic eliminates the main obstacle to Armenian-Azerbaijani peace and allows Armenia to tell the Russians to go,” said Benjamin Poghosyan, who heads the Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies in Yerevan. The same applies to peace between Turkey and Armenia. Russian border forces stationed along the border to defend Armenia would no longer be necessary. “From the US perspective, this is a win-win,” Poghosyan told Al-Monitor.
Many Armenians might welcome a Russian withdrawal amid widespread fury over the Kremlin’s perceived support for Azerbaijan and Putin’s cozy ties with its strongman, Ilham Aliyev. In the 2020 conflict, Russia sat on its hands as Azerbaijani forces clobbered their Armenian foes. In the latest round, its peacekeepers stood by as Azerbaijani forces overran Nagorno-Karabakh. “Russia is responsible from the very beginning. Russia proved it is not a trustworthy partner,” said a man who would only identify himself as “Styopa” and sells paintings at Yerevan’s open-air market known as the Vernissage.
The immediate cause for Russia’s pro-Baku tilt is Ukraine. Azerbaijan, a far bigger and richer country, has not joined in Western sanctions and, unlike Armenia, has displayed no sympathy for Ukraine. But the overarching reason is Putin’s fear of democracy in Russia’s erstwhile empire.
“All of these events are directly related to Russia’s attempt to overthrow Pashinyan and stop his Western pivot,” said Hacopian. He argues it failed. “Everybody blames the Russians. Armenia is now the most pro-American state in the region. Russia’s moves backfired.”
Olesya Vartanyan, senior South Caucasus analyst at the International Crisis Group, concurred. “Nagorno-Karabakh is at the center of Armenian identity, and the Russians allowed it to collapse. They lost Armenian society,” Vartanyan told Al-Monitor.
This marks a sea change. Armenia was among the most pro-Russian of the former Soviet states. According to a contested version of history, imperial Russia opened its doors to tens of thousands of Armenians fleeing the genocide. More than half of Armenia’s current population is thought to be their descendants.
Western observers contend that anti-Russian sentiments are currently so high that Pashinyan is off the hook. However, interviews with multiple Armenians across the country suggest otherwise. “He gave away everything,” said Markar Martirosyan, who runs a pet shop in Yerevan. “Pashinyan is zibil,” Martirosyan added, using the Armenian slang for animal poop or garbage, which is the same in Turkish.
“Turkey’s man”
It hasn’t helped that talks with Turkey have led nowhere. The land border remains shut and diplomatic relations have not been established. None of this stopped Pashinyan from joining Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s inaugural bash in Ankara following his electoral victory in May.
Pro-government Turkish hacks mockingly refer to him as "our man." “Pashinyan is very naive,” said political analyst Grigoryan. “He made unilateral concessions without getting anything in return. He is a gift to Aliyev, to Erdogan.” Pashinyan reckoned that detente with Turkey would deter Azerbaijan from further assaults. “It’s hard to speak of a peace dividend when your country is flooded with refugees,” Grigoryan noted.
The notion that Armenia could decouple so easily from Russia is every bit as naive. For starters, 40% of Armenia’s exports go to Russia. Russian state enterprises control 90% of Armenia’s power-generating capacity.
Many in the Armenian diaspora — notably hard-liners in the influential Armenian Revolutionary Federation who advocate friendship with Russia — agree. They label Pashinyan “Turk” and claim he will make Armenia a Turkish vassal.
The setbacks are taking a toll. In mayoral elections held on Sept. 17, Pashinyan’s Civil Contract party saw its popularity slip amid growing apathy with only 28.5% of eligible voters casting their ballots. Yet it still trounced its rivals. This is because the majority of Armenians still regard him as the lesser evil.
Opposition demonstrations that erupted in the days following Azerbaijan’s attack have fizzled out. Putative rival Hakob Baboudjian, who staged an anti-government protest Saturday in Yerevan’s iconic Republic Square, said he would “deploy deep psychology and quantum physics” to unseat Pashinyan. “I will make the nation happy. I will heal the population,” he told Al-Monitor as a small band of followers looked on.
Still, it would be unwise of Pashinyan to lapse into complacency. Feeding and accommodating over 100,000 people — many of them subsistence farmers with few skills — will pose a huge challenge. The initial solidarity felt by Armenians for their ethnic kin may shift to resentment. Many accuse the so-called Karabakh clan, which held power prior to Pashinyan, of holding Armenia hostage to their own narrow interests, rejecting any concessions that might have resulted in peace with Azerbaijan and Turkey. “They created an emergence of a segment of society that associates Nagorno-Karabakh with criminality,” said Hacopian.
Coups and land grabs
More immediately though, what if Azerbaijan decides to attack again? EU-meditated peace talks between Pashinyan and Aliyev are set to resume in the Spanish city of Granada on Thursday. “Should the peace talks collapse, this will increase the risk of further escalation. One day we can wake up to see another military operation and another change of landscape in the region,” said the Crisis Group’s Vartanyan. Baku wants to connect Azerbaijan to Nakhichevan, an Azerbaijani exclave that borders Turkey. Aliyev insists that Azerbaijan should be granted unfettered access through a proposed land corridor and not be subjected to border controls. Armenia ripostes that not only would this constitute a breach of its sovereignty, but it would effectively cut it off from its southern neighbor and closest regional ally, Iran.
Turkey favors the scheme because this would allow it direct access to Azerbaijan proper and to Russian and Central Asian markets that lie beyond. Russia is also on board provided that its own forces monitor the corridor.
Armenia’s real and not unreasonable worry is that Baku will use the corridor as a launching pad to invade Syunik, the southern region that separates Nakhichevan from Azerbaijan. Israel would be delighted. It uses Azerbaijan soil to spy on Iran. In exchange, Israel provided weapons in the last two Nagorno-Karabakh wars. Iran has declared any such move cause for war.
In an ominous portent, Azerbaijan has occupied an estimated 125 square kilometers of Armenian territory since 2020. Western inertia in the face of the past week’s events may embolden Aliyev to make another land grab, sowing the seeds of yet another cycle of bloodletting. This would be all the more likely should Russia succeed in ousting Pashinyan and install its own apparatchiks, most likely in a coup. The Kremlin could revert to its old tactic of playing one side against the other. Would the United States or the Europeans intervene? "They did nothing when [Abdel Fattah] al-Sisi seized power in Egypt. Why would they act for a small and less important country like Armenia?" asked Firdevs Robinson, former Caucasus and Central Asia editor for the BBC. “The man in the street would think ‘hard power decides everything. Human rights is bullshit,’” said analyst Poghosyan. “This view is shared by everyone in Armenia.”
Back in Goris, geopolitics are far from the refugees' minds. “What hurt me the most was to see the cemetery where all our soldiers are buried,” said Karapetyan, the cleaning lady. “The knowledge that we won’t ever see them again, the knowledge that they died in vain is impossible to bear.”
*Correction: Oct, 4. An Earlier version of this article stated that "over 100,000 people, which is more than the population of the European states of Malta, Luxembourg and Lichtenstein combined" had fled Nagorno-Karabakh. The combined population of these states currently stands at 1,229,416.

Iran's Khamenei says normalising Israel ties is a losing bet - state media
DUBAI, Oct 3 (Reuters)/October 04/2023
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said that countries seeking to normalise relations with Israel "are betting on a losing horse", state media reported on Tuesday. Khamenei did not identify the countries, but expectations that Israel might normalize ties with Iran's regional rival Saudi Arabia, the home of Islam's two holiest shrines, have been ratcheted up this month. "The definite position of the Islamic Republic is that countries that make the gamble of normalisation with Israel will lose. They are betting on a losing horse," Khamenei said. Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in response to Khamenei's remarks that Iran's efforts to stop countries in the region from forging ties with Israel will fail, citing agreements it signed with Arab nations in 2020. "Just as Iran hasn't prevented us from achieving the Abraham Accords, Iran will also not prevent us from expanding the circle of peace for the benefit of the citizens of Israel, the people of the region and all of humanity."Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, known as MbS, said in an interview broadcast on Sept 20 that a deal on ties with Israel was getting closer by the day and Netanyahu and U.S. President Joe Biden held a long-awaited meeting to discuss the prospects. A framework U.S.-brokered deal for forging relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia could be in place by early next year, the Israeli foreign minister said last month, after the three countries signalled progress in the complex negotiations. An Israeli-Saudi normalisation would dramatically redraw the Middle East by formally bringing together two major U.S. partners in the face of Iran - a foreign-policy flourish for President Joe Biden as he seeks reelection in late 2024. Four Arab states have formalised ties with Israel in pacts known as the Abraham Accords -- the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco.

Turkey Threatens Intensified Airstrikes Against Kurdish Targets Amid Allegations
AFP/October 04/2023
Turkey warned on Wednesday that it might intensify its cross-border airstrikes against Kurdish targets, stating that the fighters killed during Sunday's attack in Ankara had received training in Syria. In response, the overall commander of the Syrian Democratic Forces, Mazloum Abdi, rejected the Turkish allegations, stating that “the perpetrators of the Ankara attack did not pass through our areas as Turkish officials claim, and we are not a party to Turkey's internal conflict.”

Turkey says Ankara attack assailants trained in Syria
Agence France Presse/October 04/2023
Turkey said on Wednesday that two suspected Kurdish militants who died while staging a weekend attack in Ankara had been trained in Syria. Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said Turkey now reserved the right to strike a broader range of Kurdish targets in both Syria and Iraq in retaliation for Sunday's attack. Turkish police shot dead one of the assailants while the other died in an apparent suicide blast outside Turkey's interior ministry. Two policemen were injured in the incident. "As a result of the work of our security forces, it has become clear that the two terrorists came from Syria and were trained there," Fidan said in televised comments. "From now on, all infrastructure, large facilities and energy facilities belonging to (armed Kurdish groups) in Iraq and Syria are legitimate targets for our security forces." A branch of the Kurdish PKK militia -- listed as a terror group by Turkey and its Western allies -- claimed responsibility for Sunday's attack, the first in Ankara since 2016. Turkey conducted air raids against PKK targets in Iraq hours later. Fidan's comments suggest that Turkey could expand its air strikes to include war-torn Syria. Syria's Kurds have carved out a semi-autonomous area in the country's north and east. US-supported Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) -- the Kurds' de facto army in the area -- led the battle that dislodged Islamic State group fighters from the last scraps of their Syrian territory in 2019. But Turkey views the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) that dominate the SDF as an offshoot of the PKK.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has repeatedly threatened to expand attacks against the YPG.

Turkey's Fidan declares all PKK, YPG facilities in Syria, Iraq 'legitimate targets'
Ezgi Akin/Al-Monitor/October 4, 2023
ANKARA — Turkey’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said on Wednesday that Kurdish militants’ facilities and infrastructure in Syria and Iraq are "legitimate targets" for his government following a suicide bombing attack in Ankara over the weekend. He pledged an "extremely clear" retaliation.
“From now on, all infrastructure, superstructure and energy facilities of the PKK and YPG, especially in Iraq and Syria, are the legitimate targets of our security forces, armed forces and intelligence units,” Fidan said, using acronyms for the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) and its Syrian offshoot the People’s Protection Units (YPG).  Fidan said Turkish authorities had established that the two assailants who carried out the attack on Sunday were trained in Syria and had traveled to Turkey from there.  The bombing, which left the two assailants dead and two police officers wounded, struck outside the national headquarters of Turkey’s police on Sunday and was the first to be claimed by the PKK inside Ankara since 2016. Fidan’s remarks came after a key security meeting hosted by Turkey's Defense Minister Yasar Guler in Ankara earlier Wednesday. Fidan and Guler as well as Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya, intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalin and Turkish armed forces chief Metin Gurak discussed the steps to be taken in Turkey's fight against terror after Sunday's attack, Turkey’s Haberturk TV reported. Later Wednesday, Guler expanded the scope of the threat to YPG’s political arm the Syrian Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD) as he reiterated his country’s threats for Syria and Iraq in an uncommon video message shared on social media. Guler said they want everyone to know that all of the PKK and YPG as well as PYD “facilities and activities will be our legitimate target from now on, as they have been until today. Our fight against terrorism will continue with increasing intensity, perseverance and resolve until terrorists disappear from this geography.”The PKK, which has been fighting against Turkish forces for Kurdish self-rule inside Turkey since 1984, is considered a terror organization by Turkey, the United States and European Union. Ankara equates the PKK with the YPG, the backbone of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which is the major ally of the US-led international coalition in the fight against the Islamic State.
Warning to "third parties"
Fidan also warned “third parties” to stay away from what he described as "legitimate targets."“I advise third parties to stay away from PKK and YPG facilities and individuals. Our armed forces' response to this terrorist attack will be extremely clear and they will once again regret committing such an action,” he said. Turkey has been pressing Washington for years to sever its ties with the SDF and withdraw some 900 US special operations forces from the Kurdish-run autonomous region in northern Syria. Biden administration officials insist the US troops will remain in northeast Syria indefinitely to keep a lid on the remnants of the jihadist terror group. The top Turkish diplomat didn't elaborate further on Ankara's plans, but his remarks appear to formalize a warning Turkish officials have been relaying their American counterparts behind closed doors since at least last year that they couldn't guarantee the safety of US soldiers if they co-locate with the YPG. Last year, a blitz of Turkish airstrikes in northeast Syria, including one near the headquarters of top SDF commander Mazloum Kobane, led CIA director Bill Burns to exchange terse words with Fidan, his then-counterpart. The United States has trained, funded and armed the YPG in Syria to fight against the Islamic State group on the condition that it not pose any threat to Turkey, a key NATO ally. Washington’s approach to its defeat-IS campaign in Syria has exacerbated already fraying ties with Ankara in recent years.
Ankara’s latest warnings also signal a looming escalation in Syria amid a series of assassinations of high-level YPG officials that American military sources say appears designed to erode morale and undermine the long-term cohesion of the multiethnic SDF alliance. The Turkish armed forces also conducted three large-scale military operations against Syrian Kurdish groups. Among the infrastructure of the SDF-controlled areas, oil facilities in the northern Syrian province of Deir ez-Zor province stands out as a key source of income for the Kurdish-led self rule in Syria. The SDF, in turn, dismissed Turkey’s warnings as “pointless” allegations, urging the international community to take action amid fears of a new military escalation in northern Syria. Elham Ahmad, co-president of the SDF executive committee, wrote on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, “The Turkish government is routinely using drones to attack our cities, and now it is threatening to hit the infrastructure in our region, where there are 5 million people living, including [the internally displaced]. The International community must take action before it’s too late.”
Rift between Ankara and major Iraqi Kurdish party grows. In addition to the SDF’s Western allies, Fidan was likely alluding to the northern Iraqi Patriotic Union Party, one of the two major political parties dominant in the Kurdistan Regional Government. Turkey has been increasingly vocal in slamming the PUK over what Ankara describes as “increasing PKK activities” in northern Iraqi regions where the PUK is influential. In April, a suspected Turkish drone struck near a convoy containing Kobane, near the Sulaimaniyah airport. US special operations forces were in the convoy. Earlier this month, Turkey's defense minister implicitly threatened the PUK by openly naming the party’s co-leader Bafel Talabani. “Bafel Talabani is being persistently warned about the increase in terrorist activities in Sulaimaniyah: Please cut off your ties with the terrorist organization. We know and follow all of their activities,” Guler told Turkey’s Milliyet newspaper. “We do not want to take a more drastic move. These things have been openly and repeatedly conveyed. But no one has yet come to their senses.”Since Sunday’s attack, Turkey has been conducting fresh airstrikes on PKK bases in northern Iraq’s mountains. With fresh strikes on Wednesday, the number of targets hit increased to 58, the Turkish Defense Ministry said Wednesday. Baghdad has condemned the Turkish strikes and ongoing military operations against the PKK bases in the country on the grounds of violation of its territorial sovereignty. Iraqi Defense Minister Thabet Mohammad Al-Abbasi is set to visit Turkey on Thursday to meet with Guler, Turkey’s state broadcaster reported Wednesday.
Jared Szuba in Washington contributed to this report.

Israel, Azerbaijan announce landmark deal for sale of two satellites
Rina Bassist/Al-Monitor/October 04/2023
On the backdrop of the escalation of tensions between Azerbaijan and Armenia, and just two weeks after Azerbaijan's offensive emptied Nagorno-Karabakh of over 100,000 ethnic Armenians, Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) and the Azeri space agency Azercosmos announced on Tuesday they have signed an agreement for the sale of two Israeli-developed reconnaissance satellites for the Azersky-2 satellite program.  A picture published on X, formerly known as Twitter, shows IAI CEO Boaz Levy and Azercosmos Chairman Samaddin Asadov signing the agreement. The deal, announced last April, was signed Tuesday within the framework of the 74th International Astronautical Congress held in Baku. Although Israeli-Azeri defense ties remain discreet, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute the majority of Azerbaijan's arms imports come from Israel. A statement issued by the IAI said that "the companies signed on a cooperation agreement for the sale of two of IAI’s cutting-edge multispectral electro-optical satellites," adding that the "landmark deal represents a significant step forward in space technology and cooperation between the two companies."
A statement issued by the Azeri Ministry of Digital Development and Transport said that "according to the contract, two satellites will be developed within the framework of the Azersky-2 program. These will be remote Earth observation satellites with high-resolution electro-optical sensors. IAI will design, assemble, integrate and test the first satellite of the satellite cluster with the participation of Azerbaijani experts."The Azeri statement noted that Israeli experts will also support Azercosmos in the design of a new satellite development center to be established in Azerbaijan. The IAI did not offer details on the models of the satellites to be sold to Azerbaijan. It also did not specify whether the satellites would be manufactured in Israel or in Azerbaijan, though the Azeri statement indicates that at least part of the production process will take place in Azerbaijan. The two countries maintain close relations in security, energy, infrastructure and smart agriculture. Azerbaijan is especially important for Israel because of its strategic location, neighboring Iran. Azerbaijan is also a major oil supplier for Israel. In 2022, it exported more than 2 million tons to Israel, which constituted approximately 40% of Israel’s oil consumption that year. Reports over the years have claimed that Israel exports weapons to Azerbaijan, though Israel has always declined to confirm that officially. That being said, during his visit to Baku last July, Israel’s Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said, "We discussed important cooperations in the security, intelligence and industrial fields. The visit will strengthen strategic relations and deepen cooperation in many ways."Last March, Azerbaijan opened an embassy in Israel. A month later, Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen visited Baku, emphasizing bilateral efforts at deepening the security and strategic alliance between the two countries. In an interview with The Times of Israel shortly after the visit, Cohen confirmed that IAI will supply Azerbaijan with two satellites at a total cost of $120 million. Israeli lawyer and human rights activist Eitay Mack, considered an expert on Israel’s weapons exports, told Al-Monitor that Israeli authorities do not limit security exports to Azerbaijan. This means that Israeli authorities allow for the export to Azerbaijan of sensitive technologies. It is unclear, he said, whether the satellites now being sold to Azerbaijan are destined for civil or military use, though satellite technologies are considered in general of dual use. The Israeli Foreign Ministry and the Israeli Defense Ministry both declined to comment on the satellite deal.

A lot of work' remains on Saudi-Israel deal, says Abraham Accords advisor
Elizabeth Hagedorn/Al-Monitor/October 04/2023
WASHINGTON — As the Biden administration pursues a historic deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel, the US official tasked with expanding the Abraham Accords hopes an upcoming meeting of Israel and several Arab states will lay the groundwork for a much broader regional coalition.
The State Department’s new Senior Advisor for Regional Integration Daniel Shapiro told Al-Monitor he is focused on the “expanding normalization agenda,” including through the so-called Negev Forum that aims to cement the emerging economic and diplomatic ties between Israel and its Sunni Arab neighbors.
For the first time on Israeli soil, the top diplomats from the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco and Egypt joined their counterparts from Israel and the United States for a groundbreaking summit in March 2022 that reflected the new alignments reshaping the Middle East. The rare display of cooperation came as the Biden administration sought to contain Iran, mend Palestinian-Israeli ties and blunt China’s rising influence in the region. Key to that effort is the brokering of normalized ties between Israel and the most powerful Arab country, Saudi Arabia. “There's a lot of work to do before we'll know if that will all come together,” Shapiro said in his first interview with a US media outlet since his July appointment. A second ministerial-level Negev gathering was originally scheduled for early 2023 but was postponed by this year’s host, Morocco, amid heightened tensions between the Palestinians and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s far-right government. After repeated delays, the forum is expected to reconvene in the North African country later this month, multiple diplomatic sources have told Al-Monitor.
US looks to ASEAN as model
Shapiro said the Arab-Israeli grouping could one day take on a bigger role in fostering economic and diplomatic cooperation in the region, much like the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, which has doubled in size since it began in 1967 as a five-country bloc to contain communism.
“ASEAN to me is the gold standard of how a large, diverse region of countries can decide that their interests are best served by pooling together … [and] negotiating as a bloc with other partners outside of that region,” said Shapiro, the former US ambassador to Israel during the Obama administration.
“Our aspirations for this are significant,” Shapiro said. “Over time, a forum like this can evolve into a regional integration organization that goes much beyond what's been achieved so far.”Plans for a second Negev summit come as US officials are working to mediate full diplomatic relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. The two countries' once unthinkable rapprochement would not only hand President Joe Biden a foreign policy win as he campaigns for reelection, but potentially open the door for other Arab and Muslim-majority countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia and Mauritania to strike similar pacts with Israel. Countries like Oman that already have some level of cooperation with Israel may also be more inclined to formalize those ties if the region’s most powerful Sunni monarchy goes first. “I don't think there's any question that a decision by Saudi Arabia to normalize with Israel would have influence that would radiate out to other countries,” said Shapiro. “That's one of the many potential benefits of that breakthrough if it occurs.”
He added that some of the countries considering developing relations with Israel have indicated they are waiting to see how its negotiations with Saudi Arabia unfold.
“They're watching the Saudi talks play out, and that's a factor in their thinking,” Shapiro said. “Others may consider that there's an actual advantage for them to move sooner, that actually they'll be able to derive greater benefit by not coming behind the largest and most influential player.” “There’s quite a number of countries in the Arab world, in Africa, in East Asia that are relevant,” Shapiro said. “There are countries that are considering all sorts of different possibilities, timing, options and how to adjust their own planning to this very public news story that we're all following.”Israel and Saudi Arabia are hammering out a framework for a historic pact that Biden officials say would bring greater stability to the Middle East but would require significant compromise from the United States. Riyadh is seeking security guarantees from Washington and US support for the development of a civilian nuclear program, both of which would face resistance among Biden's allies in Congress.
'Difference in approach' from wary Palestinians
To sell the deal at home, Saudi Arabia is also pushing Israel to make concessions to the Palestinians, a prospect that has already been met with opposition from members of the most religious and right-wing government in Israel’s history.
Al-Monitor previously reported that the parties are discussing transferring Israeli-administered land in the West Bank's Area C to Area B, which is under joint-Israeli-Palestinian control. Also on the table is an Israeli freeze on settlement construction and expansion in the West Bank, which Israel captured during the 1967 Middle East war.
Shapiro said it’s too soon to know what a significant Palestinian component of the Israel-Saudi deal would entail, but said US officials have met with the Palestinians to discuss “how they might participate in or benefit from the arrangements that would accompany an Israeli-Saudi normalization.”
The Palestinians say the Trump administration didn’t consult with them before brokering the Abraham Accords, which saw the United Arab Emirates normalize relations with Israel in exchange for it suspending the annexation of parts of the occupied West Bank.
The agreement undercut the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative championed by the late Saudi King Abdullah that said Arab countries would normalize with Israel only in return for Palestinian statehood and Israel's complete withdrawal from the territories it captured in 1967. “One of the things we saw at the time of Abraham Accords was mostly Palestinian rejection of that decision by those countries,” Shapiro said. “They may have felt surprised by it. They may have felt a certain amount of disappointment, even betrayal.”
Shapiro described a "noteworthy difference in approach" from the Palestinians to the current Israeli-Saudi talks “to see there's a mechanism by which they can advance some of their goals, which of course include keeping progress alive toward a two-state solution.” There are clear signs the high-stakes Saudi-Israeli effort is making headway, including the first-ever public visit by an Israeli minister to Saudi Arabia last week and increasing optimism from their respective leaders. Recently Netanyahu claimed his country was “at the cusp” of a historic pact with Saudi Arabia, where Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said a deal was getting “closer” by the day. "The work is underway," Shapiro said. "Everyone acknowledges that, and we will see if it can be achieved."

Iran, KSA to reschedule Asian Champions League soccer match after walkout
Associated Press/October 04/2023
Iran said Wednesday it has agreed with Saudi Arabia to reschedule an Asian Champions League match after the Saudi team walked out at the last minute, apparently over the presence of a statue of a slain Iranian general.
The walkout appeared to further strain a recent rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran, longtime rivals who have backed opposite sides in conflicts across the Middle East. But in the days since, both sides have appeared eager to move past it.
The Saudi Al Ittihad team did not come out onto the field in Isfahan on Monday, where some 60,000 fans were eagerly awaiting their match against Iran's Sepahan. Saudi Arabia's state-run Al Ekhbariya TV said they refused to come out because of a statue of the late Gen. Qassem Soleimani placed outside the entrance tunnel. Soleimani, who commanded the elite Quds Force of Iran's paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, is seen as a war hero by Iran's clerical rulers and their supporters but vilified by Western and many Arab nations because of his role in leading Iran's military activities across the region. He was killed in a U.S. drone strike in neighboring Iraq in 2020. Iran's Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian told reporters Wednesday that the two sides would reschedule the match and urged the Asian Football Confederation to review the incident on a "technical" basis. "We should not allow sport to be used as political leverage" by any side, he said. He went on to say that relations with Saudi Arabia are moving in the right direction, and that he had been in direct contect with his Saudi counterpart on Monday night. Saudi officials have not commented on the walkout. Al Ittihad released a statement hours after the walkout saying the team had left the stadium and flown home because it was told by league organizers that the match would not take place as scheduled. The Saudi Arabian Football Federation put out a statement expressing support for the team. Neither statement mentioned the Soleimani statue, one of three placed around the stadium. Mohammad Reza Saket, the chairman of Sepahan, told Iranian state TV late Monday that Al Ittihad had made "demands that were outside of the norms of sport," without elaborating. He said the stadium had been inspected and approved by the AFC prior to the match. The AFC said the match was canceled "due to unanticipated and unforeseen circumstances," without elaborating. On Tuesday, Saudi Arabia's Al Hilal club defeated Iran's Nassaji in a match in the Iranian capital, Tehran. The soccer tournament, which features 40 teams from around Asia, is the first since 2015 to see Saudi Arabian and Iranian teams play on each other's soil. After the countries severed diplomatic relations in 2016, games usually took place in neutral venues. The two countries restored diplomatic relations earlier this year in an agreement brokered by China. That raised hopes that the devastating war between a Saudi-led coalition and Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi rebels, which has been winding down in recent years, might finally come to an end. But tensions rose again last month after an attack killed four soldiers who were patrolling Saudi Arabia's southern border with Yemen. The soldiers were from Bahrain, a close Saudi ally, and the coalition blamed the Houthis, who have not publicly acknowledged the attack.

Turkey hits Kurdish militant sites in Iraq, detains 1,000 people after Ankara blast
Associated Press/October 04/2023
Turkish warplanes have carried out new airstrikes against suspected Kurdish militant sites in northern Iraq, days after a suicide attack in the Turkish capital. Police, meanwhile, detained almost 1,000 people in raids across Turkey. A defense ministry statement said the air raids hit 16 targets, including caves, shelters and depots, used by the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK in the neighboring region. It said the operation aimed to protect Turkey's borders and prevent terror attacks. It was Turkey's second cross-border aerial operation against PKK targets in northern Iraq since the attack in Ankara on Sunday. Earlier, police conducted raids in several Turkish provinces, detaining close to 1,000 people, including dozens with alleged links to Kurdish militants. An opposition news anchor was also briefly detained. Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya said that 55 people suspected of being part of the PKK's "intelligence structure" were detained in 16 provinces. At least 12 other suspected PKK members were rounded up in a separate operation in five provinces, Yerlikaya wrote on X, the social media platform formerly known as Twitter. The PKK claimed responsibility for the suicide attack, according to a news website close to the group. The group has led a decades-long insurgency in Turkey and is considered a terror organization by the United States and the European Union. Tens of thousands of people have died since the start of the conflict in 1984. The interior minister later said that an additional 928 people suspected of holding unlicensed firearms or being connected to firearms smuggling were arrested during the operation, but he didn't immediately make it clear if the suspects arrested for illegal firearms were suspected of connections to the PKK. He added that more than 840 firearms were confiscated during the operation. A 73-year-old news anchor was also briefly detained Tuesday after she questioned details of the official account of the attack on opposition broadcaster Halk TV.
Aysenur Arslan was detained in her home after prosecutors accused her of "terrorist propaganda" and "praising criminal activity" for comments made during her television program on Monday morning. Media freedoms in Turkey have eroded during President Recep Tayyip Erdogan 's tenure, according to international monitors. Much of the media have oriented itself to support Erdogan, while the few broadcasters that regularly criticize his policies are hit with fines or blackouts by the Turkish media watchdog RTUK. Turkey ranked 149th out of 180 countries in the press freedom index of Reporters Without Borders (RSF) in 2022. On Sunday, a suicide bomber detonated an explosive device near an entrance to the Interior Ministry, hours before Erdogan was set to address Parliament as it returned from its summer recess. A second would-be bomber was killed in a shootout with police. Two police officers were slightly wounded in the attack. The suspects arrived at the scene inside a vehicle they seized from a veterinarian in the central Turkish city of Kayseri after shooting him in the head, officials said. Turkish authorities identified one of the assailants as a PKK militant. Hours later, Turkey's air force carried out airstrikes on suspected PKK sites in northern Iraq, where the group's leadership is based. The Defense Ministry said a large number of PKK militants were "neutralized" in Sunday's strikes. Yerlikaya didn't clarify whether the people rounded up on Tuesday were suspected of direct involvement in Sunday's attack.

US Hands Over Seized Arms Ammunition to Ukraine Amidst Concerns
AFP/October 04/2023
The US military announced on Wednesday that it has delivered seized small-arms ammunition to Ukraine, originally intercepted while being transported from Iranian forces to Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen.  This move signals a potential increase in providing Ukraine with additional confiscated military equipment, raising questions about Washington's ability to continue arming Kyiv, given the opposition from staunch Republican lawmakers. The US Central Command (CENTCOM) stated in a release that "the US government has transferred approximately 1.1 million rounds of 7.62 mm caliber ammunition to the Ukrainian armed forces" on Monday.

US warns of Chinese global disinformation campaign
Naharnet/October 04/2023
For much of the world, China's Xinjiang region is notorious, a place where ethnic Uyghurs face forced labor and arbitrary detention. But a group of visiting foreign journalists was left with a decidedly different impression. On a tour in late September sponsored by Beijing, the 22 journalists from 17 countries visited bazaars and chatted with residents over dates and watermelon slices. They later told state media they were impressed with the bustling economy, described the region as "full of cultural, religious and ethnic diversity," and denounced what they said were lies by Western media. The trip is an example of what Washington sees as Beijing's growing efforts to reshape the global narrative on China. It's spending billions of dollars annually to do so. In a first-of-its-kind report, the State Department last week laid out Beijing's tactics and techniques for molding public opinion, such as buying content, creating fake personas to spread its message and using repression to quash unfavorable accounts. The Global Engagement Center, a State Department agency that's tasked with combating foreign propaganda and disinformation and that released the 58-page report, warned that Beijing's information campaign could eventually sway how decisions are made around the world and undermine U.S. interests. "Unchecked, the (Chinese government's) information manipulation could in many parts of the world diminish freedom to express views critical of Beijing," said Jamie Rubin, who heads the center. He said Beijing's efforts could "transform the global information landscape and damage the security and stability of the United States, its friends, and partners." "We don't want to see an Orwellian mix of fact and fiction in our world," he said. "That will destroy the secure world of rules and rights that the United States and much of the world relies upon."China over the weekend slammed the report, calling it "in itself disinformation as it misrepresents facts and truth.""In fact, it is the U.S. that invented the weaponizing of the global information space," the Chinese foreign ministry said. It called the State Department agency "a source of disinformation and the command center of 'perception warfare.'"In a written statement, Liu Pengyu, spokesman for the Chinese Embassy in Washington, said the report was "just another tool to keep China down and buttress American hegemony."Beijing argues that Western media have long held biases against China and at times have demonized it. Chinese President Xi Jinping has demanded that China tell its story to the world so Beijing would be trusted and respected. But U.S. government officials say Beijing is advancing its agenda through coercion and lies. In one case outlined by the report, the Chinese government created a fake commentator named Yi Fan, whose pro-Beijing writings have appeared in publications in Asia, Africa and Latin America.
In social media, Beijing deploys armies of bots, trolls and coordinated campaigns to suppress critical content and boost pro-Beijing messages, the report said. China-made phones sold overseas have been found to come with censorship capabilities. A national security law in Hong Kong has allowed authorities to prosecute those who live overseas but criticize Beijing's policy in the territory, according to the report. On Ukraine, Beijing has cooperated with Moscow to amplify the Kremlin's false claims, it said. In Xinjiang, Beijing has brought in diplomats and foreign journalists on tightly orchestrated trips with minders in tow. The aim is to counter allegations that Beijing has mistreated the country's 11 million ethnic Uyghurs through arbitrary detention and labor programs that send Uyghurs to work in factories far from their homes. A United Nations report last year said the acts by Beijing in Xinjiang might constitute crimes against humanity. The U.S. government went further, saying the actions constitute genocide against the Uyghurs, most of whom are Muslim. On the latest such trip to Xinjiang, the journalists praised Beijing's efforts in preserving the region's traditional culture, creating a harmonious and prosperous life for people of all ethnicities and religions, the party-run Global Times newspaper reported. One Iranian journalist described the northwestern region as a beautiful Persian rug with different colors and patterns weaved together, according to China News, another state-run news agency. Meanwhile, Beijing has banned independent reporting in Xinjiang by Western journalists, and it has sought to silence criticism from Uyghurs overseas by threatening to punish their family members at home and deny them entry into China. While the State Department report focused on Beijing's global influence efforts outside the United States, its findings are similar to those documented in the U.S. by think tanks and advocacy groups. Testifying before the Senate Intelligence Committee last week, Sarah Cook, a senior adviser for China, Hong Kong and Taiwan at Freedom House, said Beijing's disinformation campaign targeting the U.S. could sow discord and might influence election results at the local level, especially in districts with large Chinese American voters. They are more likely to be using WeChat, a popular Chinese-language messaging app heavily controlled by Beijing, she said. Glenn Tiffert, who co-chairs a project on China's influence campaigns at the Hoover Institute, told the committee that the use of new technology, such as artificial intelligence, could allow Beijing to better interfere with U.S. elections.

Bus plummets 50 feet from elevated road in Venice, killing 21 people in fiery crash
Associated Press/October 04/2023
A bus carrying dozens of people plummeted 15 meters (50 feet) from an elevated road in Venice, causing a fiery crash that killed 21 people and injured at least 15, mostly foreign tourists returning to a nearby campsite. Those who died in the Tuesday night crash included at least four Ukrainians and a German citizen, according to Venice prefecture. At least two of the dead were children, Venice prefect Michele Di Bari said, adding that many of the people involved in the accident were "young." Firefighters worked until dawn Wednesday to clear the wreckage. Later in the morning, traffic was slowly passing the spot where the bus burst through a guardrail and a rusted fence. The accident scene drew the attention of passersby. A couple of locals said that the overpass was more than 60 years old and that nothing similar had ever happened there, while a man wearing a biker jacket stopped his motorcycle to tie to a post a bouquet of plastic flowers. The bus was carrying foreign tourists from Venice's Piazzale Roma to the Hu campground on Tuesday evening when it fell from an elevated street next to railway tracks in the borough of Mestre, catching fire. Tourists frequently stay in boroughs across the lagoon from the canals of Venice's famous historic center to find cheaper accommodations. The injured, including five in serious condition, included French, Spanish, Austrian and Croatian nationals, local officials said. The Spanish Foreign Ministry said on Wednesday that two people from Spain were injured in the accident, and both were in hospital and in good condition. The driver, Alberto Rizzotto, was killed in the crash. Venice city councilor Renato Boraso said he was an experienced driver, and local prosecutors are investigating if he felt ill. Rescuers noted that the fact that the bus was electric contributed to the massive fire and made rescue operations more difficult. Godstime Erheneden was in his apartment near the accident when he heard a crash outside. He rushed outside and was among the first to enter the bus. "When we went in, we saw the driver right away. He was dead. I carried a woman out on my shoulders, then a man," Erheneden told the local newspaper il Gazzettino. "The woman was screaming, 'my daughter, my daughter,' and I went back in. I saw this girl who must have been 2 years old. I have a son who is a year and 10 months old, and they are the same size. I felt like I was holding my son in my arms. It was terrible. I don't know if she survived. I thought she was alive but when the rescuers arrived they took her away immediately," Erheneden said. Venice Mayor Luigi Brugnaro wrote on X, formerly known as Twitter, that the scene was "apocalyptic" and declared a state of mourning. In 2017, 16 people on a bus carrying Hungarian students died in an accident near the northern city of Verona. And in 2013, 40 people were killed in one of Italy's worst vehicle accidents when a bus plunged off a viaduct close to the southern city of Avellino.

Republican hardliners oust US House speaker in historic vote
Agence France Presse/October 04/2023
Kevin McCarthy was axed Tuesday as speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives in a brutal, historic rebellion by far-right Republicans accusing him of a string of broken promises and furious at his cooperation with Democrats. The maneuver laid bare the chaotic levels of infighting among Republicans heading into the 2024 presidential election, with its likely candidate Donald Trump making history of his own as the only former or sitting president to face criminal indictment. The first ouster of a speaker in the House's 234-year history was supported by only a handful of right-wing Republican hardliners. However, the House is almost evenly divided and with Democrats joining eight rebel Republicans rather than riding to McCarthy's rescue, he had no way to survive. "I ended up being the 55th speaker of the House -- one of the greatest honors. I loved every minute," a circumspect McCarthy told reporters after the vote, making clear he did not plan to stand again. "And the one thing I will tell you is doing the right thing isn't always easy, but it is necessary. I don't regret standing up for choosing governance over grievance." The 58-year-old former entrepreneur had sparked fury among conservatives when he passed a bipartisan stopgap funding measure at the weekend backed by the White House to avert a government shutdown. Florida conservative Matt Gaetz, who forced the removal vote, gambled that he could oust McCarthy with just a few Republicans, helped by Democrats loath to bail out a speaker who only recently opened a highly politicized impeachment inquiry into President Joe Biden. "The reason Kevin McCarthy went down today is because nobody trusts Kevin McCarthy," Gaetz said. "Kevin McCarthy has made multiple contradictory promises, and when they all came due, he lost." South Carolina Republican Nancy Mace revealed she, too, had soured on McCarthy over promises to put legislation up for a vote that were never honored. Democrats pointed to his decision to renege on a deal with Biden on spending limits agreed earlier this year in high-stakes talks over the federal budget. Biden issued a statement through his press secretary after McCarthy's overthrow urging the House to quickly choose a replacement, arguing that the urgent challenges facing the country "will not wait."
- 'Pigsty of incompetence' -
The New Democrat Coalition, a bloc of pro-business Democratic lawmakers, described McCarthy as "simply not trustworthy." And Congressional Progressive Caucus chairwoman Pramila Jayapal, a leading leftist, vowed to let Republicans "wallow in their pigsty of incompetence" rather than rescue McCarthy. The tussle came just days after the House and Senate passed a measure to avert a costly government shutdown -- both with big bipartisan majorities -- by extending federal funding through mid-November. Conservatives were furious, seeing their chances dashed for forcing massive budget cuts. They accused McCarthy of a flip-flop, saying he'd promised an end to hastily prepared stopgap legislation, hammered out with the support of the opposition, and a return to budgeting through the committee process. With McCarthy out, a temporary speaker put the House into recess as Republicans gathered to discuss picking a replacement. The ousted speaker, who got the gavel in a marathon 15 rounds of balloting in January, didn't immediately endorse a successor. His decision not to run again sets up a potential showdown among McCarthy's lieutenants -- most likely House Majority Leader Steve Scalise and House Majority Whip Tom Emmer. Gaetz and fellow anti-McCarthy dissident Bob Good told CNN after the meeting the House was leaving town until a "candidate forum" on Tuesday next week, which Good expected to be followed by the first round of votes the following day. But Republican hopefuls may shy from taking on what looks like a poisoned chalice in which the hard-right faction will continue to exercise control from the sidelines. Trump -- who is facing 91 felony charges and was in court Tuesday in New York as a defendant in a civil fraud trial -- berated Republicans on his social media platform for "always fighting among themselves." Tellingly, though, he offered no support for McCarthy.

Jews spitting beside Christian pilgrims in Holy Land sparks outrage
Associated Press/October 04/2023
A video that shows ultra-Orthodox Jews spitting on the ground beside a procession of foreign Christian worshipers carrying a wooden cross in the holy city of Jerusalem has ignited intense outrage and a flurry of condemnation in the Holy Land. The spitting incident, which the city's minority Christian community lamented as the latest in an alarming surge of religiously motivated attacks, drew rare outrage on Tuesday from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other senior officials. Since Israel's most conservative government in history came to power late last year, concerns have mounted among religious leaders — including the influential Vatican-appointed Latin Patriarch — over the increasing harassment of the region's 2,000-year-old Christian community. Many say the government, with its powerful ultranationalist officials, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, has emboldened Jewish extremists and created a sense of impunity. "What happened with right-wing religious nationalism is that Jewish identity has been growing around anti-Christianity," said Yisca Harani, a Christianity expert and founder of an Israeli hotline for anti-Christian assaults. "Even if the government doesn't encourage it, they hint that there will be no sanctions." Those worries over rising intolerance seem to violate Israel's stated commitment to freedom of worship and sacred trust over holy places, enshrined in the declaration that marked its founding 75 years ago. Israel captured east Jerusalem in a 1967 war and later annexed it in a move not internationally recognized. There are roughly 15,000 Christians in Jerusalem today, the majority of them Palestinians who consider themselves living under occupation. Netanyahu's office insisted on Tuesday that Israel "is totally committed to safeguard the sacred right of worship and pilgrimage to the holy sites of all faiths.""I strongly condemn any attempt to intimidate worshippers, and I am committed to taking immediate and decisive action against it," he said. The spitting scene, captured on Monday by a reporter at Israel's left-leaning Haaretz newspaper, shows a group of foreign pilgrims beginning their procession through the limestone labyrinth of the Old City, home to holiest ground in Judaism, the third-holiest shrine in Islam and major Christian sites. Raising a giant wooden cross, the men and women retraced the Old City route that they believe Jesus Christ took before his crucifixion. Along the way, ultra-Orthodox Jews in dark suits and broad-brimmed black hats squeezed past the pilgrims through narrow alleyways, their ritual palm fronds for the weeklong Jewish holiday of Sukkot in hand. As they streamed by, at least seven ultra-Orthodox Jews spit on the ground beside the Christian tour group. Further fueling the outrage, Elisha Yered, an ultranationalist settler leader and former adviser to a lawmaker in Netanyahu's governing coalition, defended the spitters, arguing that spitting at Christian clergy and at churches was was an "ancient Jewish custom." "Perhaps under the influence of Western culture we have somewhat forgotten what Christianity is," he wrote on X, formerly known as Twitter. "I think millions of Jews who suffered in exile from the Crusades ... will never forget." Yered, suspected of involvement in the killing of a 19-year-old Palestinian, remains under house arrest. While the video, and Yered's comment, spread like wildfire on social media, the chorus of condemnation grew. Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen said spitting at Christians "does not represent Jewish values."The country's minister of religious affairs, Michael Malkieli, a member of the ultra-Orthodox Shas party, argued such spitting was "not the way of the Torah." One of Israel's chief rabbis insisted spitting had nothing to do with Jewish law. Activists who have been documenting daily attacks against Christians in the Holy Land were taken aback by the sudden wave of government attention. "Attacks against Christians have 100% increased this year, and not just spitting, but throwing stones and vandalizing signs," said Harani, the expert. "Excuse me," she added, addressing Israeli authorities. "But where were you?"

Israeli police arrest five for hostile gestures toward Christians
Reuters/October 04, 2023
JERUSALEM: Israeli police on Wednesday arrested five people suspected of spitting toward Christians or churches in the Old City of Jerusalem and formed a special investigative team to deal with growing complaints of hostile gestures against Christians.
“Unfortunately, we witness the continued disgraceful acts of hatred toward Christians in the Old City of Jerusalem, primarily through spitting by extremists,” said Jerusalem District Commander Doron Turgeman. No details were provided on the identities of the people who were arrested. Members of the area’s small Christian community have said they have faced growing harassment and intimidation from Jewish ultranationalists, particularly since Netanyahu’s hard-right government took office late last year. Wednesday’s arrests came as the city prepared for its annual Jerusalem March, an event that usually draws huge crowds, including thousands of Christian pilgrims. Israeli media published video footage in the Old City this week showing Orthodox Jews, including small children, apparently spitting on the ground as they passed a group of foreign Christian pilgrims.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu condemned the incident, promising to take “immediate and decisive action.”“Israel is totally committed to safeguard the sacred right of worship and pilgrimage to the holy sites of all faiths,” he said in a message on the social messaging platform X. The Old City’s patchwork of narrow alleys surround some of the holiest sites for Jews, Christians and Muslims, and the local communities have long developed ways of living together despite regular spikes in tension, especially around religious and national holidays. Turgeman said police would use security cameras, patrols and Internet monitoring to fight the phenomenon both in real time and in hindsight, as well as to possibly start imposing special “administrative fines.”

West Bank city pins tourism hopes on UNESCO listing
Agence France Presse/October 04/2023
In the ancient city of Jericho in the occupied West Bank, a prehistoric site has raised Palestinian hopes of a tourism boom after UNESCO declared it a World Heritage site. Just a few dozen visitors braved the midday sun to stroll around Tell al-Sultan, where archaeologists have unearthed evidence of community life dating back about 10,000 years. Passersby may not spot the inconspicuous mound tucked away on the edge of Jericho, but it drew international attention in September when it was added to UNESCO's World Heritage List. Residents celebrated with fireworks, well aware that such recognition could change their fortunes. "For the first time, I felt that there was justice in the world," said Jericho mayor Abdulkareem Sider. "Hopefully it will have a significant positive impact on the number of tourists," he added at his office in city hall, where paintings of Jericho's heritage adorn the walls. Jericho boasts a wealth of ancient sites, including the extensive mosaics of Hisham's Palace, an early Islamic site which Palestinian officials hope will be next to get a UNESCO listing. A monastery clings to the Mount of Temptation, where Christians believe Jesus struggled with Satan for 40 days, while other biblical sites are dotted across the landscape. But despite such cultural treasures, visitor numbers remain relatively low. In the first half of this year, there were 32,535 hotel guests in the Jericho area, according to the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics. That compares to 221,377 in Bethlehem, the West Bank town celebrated by Christians as the birthplace of Jesus. A Chinese tourist outside Tell al-Sultan admitted she had no idea about the ancient site, telling AFP she was only brought to the adjacent restaurant as part of a bus tour.
Inadequate labelling
Despite the fanfare surrounding the UNESCO announcement, just a few signs at Tell al-Sultan explain the historical significance of the site where a permanent settlement had emerged by the 9th to 8th millennium BC. Maddie Oto, a 22-year-old American student on an educational tour, suggested the site needs better labelling to make it accessible. "You have to come here with a guide, to learn the things that we're learning," she said at Tell al-Sultan, while a cable car overhead carried visitors to the Mount of Temptation. Mohammed Mansour, in charge of developing Jericho's archaeological sites, is mindful of the shortcomings but says improvements are on the way thanks to funding from Italy. "We will make a new museum with a new entrance, with a walkway for visitors, and also to protect the site, putting some shelters in some areas," he said. Mansour's face lit up as he talked about the 29 cultural layers found at Tell al-Sultan, where thousands of years ago residents were able to build steps up a tower and begin community living and a belief system. But while domestic and international funding will go some way towards promoting tourism in the city, Palestinians have no actual capacity to issue tourist visas.
Neighboring Jordan can be seen from Tell al-Sultan but the nearby crossing is controlled by Israel, which has occupied the West Bank since the Six-Day War of 1967. Both Mansour and the mayor lamented that many tourists come to Jericho as a stop on a broader tour led by guides with Israeli licenses and, as a result, visitors often believe they are in Israel rather than the Palestinian territories.
'Unbelievably beautiful' -
The city also draws visits by Israeli Arabs, descendants of Palestinians who stayed on their land after Israel's creation in 1948. Shadia Dahamshi, from Kafr Kanna in northern Israel, was wowed by the "unbelievably beautiful" Hisham's Palace which was recently restored with Japanese funding. "The place is really, really marvelous," said the 55-year-old, amazed by the skill of the eighth-century craftsmen who built the fortified residence. Her relative, however, pointed to the lack of air conditioning in a region where summer temperatures regularly top 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Fahrenheit).
The mayor aspires to improve the visitor experience by lighting up the ancient sites so that they can be toured after dark, as well as encouraging tourists to explore more of the Jordan Valley. "One day is not enough!" said Sider, who wants to develop tours of the date palms surrounding the city and walking trails through the valley. Tourists can travel to the Jordan River, the Dead Sea or discover local cuisine, he added. "Jericho is the oldest city in the world, so it's the right for all people" to visit, said the mayor.

Latest English LCCC  analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on October 04-05/2023
The Genocide of Christians: Islamic Terrorists vs Muslim Statesmen
Raymond Ibrahim/October 04/2023
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/122825/122825/
As the Muslim nation of Azerbaijan resumes its genocide of Armenian Christians, the question arises: When it comes to savage hate for “infidels,” what, exactly, is the difference between Islamic terrorists—whom we are regularly admonished have nothing to do with real Islam—and Muslim statesmen?
The Islamic State (“ISIS”), for example, was widely condemned (including by a long-reluctant Obama administration) for committing genocide against Christians, Yazidis, and other non-Muslims in the regions it occupied, especially in Iraq and Syria.
At this very moment, however, even so-called “secular” Muslim nations are engaged in genocide—and for the very same jihadist reasons.
In late 2022, for example, Turkey opened fire on Syria’s northern border, where live most of the religious minorities—Christians, Yazidis, etc.—that had experienced genocide a few years earlier under ISIS. Enough death and destruction occurred that Genocide Watch issued a Genocide Emergency Alert on December 7, 2022:
These military attacks by Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s regime are part of a wider Turkish policy of annihilation of the Kurdish and Assyrian [Christian] people in northern Syria and Iraq. Turkey has committed war crimes and crimes against humanity, including bombing, shelling, abduction, torture, and extrajudicial killings. The attacks are part of Turkey’s genocidal policies towards Kurds, Christians, and Ezidis.
During a later webinar (summarized here), Gregory Stanton, president of Genocide Watch, concluded that “Turkey is a genocidal society… Turkey has conducted so many genocides in history… Going back many centuries, it [Turkey] has been anti-Christian, and has tried to slaughter as many Christians as possible.”
Then there is the ongoing genocide of another Christian people, the Armenians, at the hands of the so-called “secular” governments of Turkey and Azerbaijan.
In late 2020, Azerbaijan went to war against Armenia over Artsakh, ancient Armenian land (aka, Nagorno-Karabakh). Turkey quickly joined its Azerbaijani co-religionists, though the dispute clearly did not concern it. Turkey even funded and sent “jihadist groups,” to quote French President Macron, that had been operating in Syria and Libya—including one that kept naked women chained and imprisoned—to terrorize and slaughter the Armenians. One of these captured mercenaries confessed that he was “promised a monthly $2,000 payment for fighting against ‘kafirs’ in Artsakh, and an extra 100 dollar[s] for each beheaded kafir.” (Kafir, often translated as “infidel,” is Arabic for any non-Muslim who fails to submit to Islam, which makes them enemies by default.)
All these terrorist groups, as well as the Azeri military, committed numerous atrocities (see here, and here), including by raping an Armenian female soldier and mother of three, before hacking off all four of her limbs, gouging her eyes, and mockingly sticking one of her severed fingers inside her private parts.
The 2020 war ended with Azerbaijan appropriating Artsakh. Since then, Azerbaijan has literally been starving its Armenians to death, in what several watchdog organizations—including the Association of Genocide Scholars, Genocide Watch, and the Lemkin Institute for Genocide Prevention—have labeled a genocide.
Speaking on August 7, 2023, Luis Moreno Ocampo, the former Chief Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court, said:
There is an ongoing Genocide against 120,000 Armenians living in Nagorno-Karabakh, also known as Artsakh. The blockade of the Lachin Corridor by the Azerbaijani security forces impeding access to any food, medical supplies, and other essentials should be considered a Genocide under Article II, (c) of the Genocide Convention: ‘Deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction. There are no crematories, and there are no machete attacks. Starvation is the invisible Genocide weapon. Without immediate dramatic change, this group of Armenians will be destroyed in a few weeks.
A more subtle similarity exists between the genocides foisted by bearded terrorists in traditional Muslim garb, and Muslim statesmen in suits and ties: they both exhibit a jihadist hate for and strong desire to erase the religious history and heritage of their victims.
Attacks on churches and crosses are one of the most obvious examples of this “purge.” In 2015, for example, ISIS published a video of Muslims desecrating churches and breaking crosses all throughout the Syrian province of Nineveh, one of the oldest Christian regions in the world. (After it had gone viral on Arabic social media, and because I wanted Western people to know what Muslims know, I loaded it onto YouTube—only for YouTube to instantly remove and temporarily suspend my account. That video is now available, here.)
Azerbaijan has done and continues to do the same exact thing to the churches and crosses in ancient Christian territories under its control (namely, Artsakh and Nakhchivan).
In one instance—and as happened throughout Iraq and Syria under the “terrorists”—an Azeri fighter was videotaped standing atop an Armenian church, after its cross had been broken off, while triumphantly crying “Allahu Akbar!” In another, video footage showed Azeri troops entering into a conquered church, laughing, mocking, kicking, and defacing Christian items inside it, including a fresco of the Last Supper. Responding to this video, Arman Tatoyan, an Armenian human rights activist, issued a statement:
The President of Azerbaijan and the country’s authorities have been implementing a policy of hatred, enmity, ethnic cleansing and genocide against Armenia, citizens of Armenia and the Armenian people for years. The Turkish authorities have done the same or have openly encouraged the same policy.
As for statistics, according to Caucasus Heritage Watch, 108 Medieval and early modern Armenian monasteries, churches and cemeteries between 1997 and 2011 have experienced “complete destruction.” Moreover, since the 2020 war, “new satellite imagery shows ongoing destruction of Armenian heritage sites. Images show
disappearance of churches and cemeteries.” As one example, photos showed how a more than 700 years old monastery was first destroyed, and then re-erected as a mosque.
An even more recent report from June 2023 documents the systematic destruction of ancient churches, crosses, Christian cemeteries, and other cultural landmarks in Artsakh. As one example, after bombing the Holy Savior Cathedral in Shushi during the 2020 war—an act Human Rights Watch labeled a “possible war crime”—Azerbaijan seized the region. Although officials claimed they would “restore” the church, all they did is remove its dome and cross, making the building look less like a church. As one report notes,
The ‘case’ of Shushi is indicative of the well-documented history of Armenian cultural and religious destruction by Azerbaijan. From 1997 to 2006, Azerbaijan systematically obliterated almost all traces of Armenian culture in the Nakhichevan area, which included the destruction of medieval churches, thousands of carved stone crosses (“khachkars”), and historical tombstones.
And now, after launching its latest military offensive last week, one of the oldest Christian places of worship in the world, the fourth century Amaras Monastery, has fallen under Azeri control. The fate of this ancient heritage site will, no doubt, be lamentable.
When it comes to the jihadist genocide of Christian “infidels” and the erasure of their cultural heritage, there appears to be little difference between Muslim “terrorists” and Muslim “statesmen.” As Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan once observed, “Islam cannot be either ‘moderate’ or ‘not moderate.’ Islam can only be one thing.”
And that one thing has been on display for fourteen (blood drenched) centuries.
https://www.raymondibrahim.com/2023/10/04/the-genocide-of-christians-islamic-terrorists-vs-muslim-statesmen/

Erdogan is Here to Stay
Sinan Ciddi/ The National Interest/October 04/2023
The Turkish president has adopted a transactional policy with the West. Washington should respond in kind.
Since the conclusion of Turkey’s presidential elections in May, much analysis has rightly focused on the implications of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s third term from both domestic and foreign policy perspectives. In American and European circles, attention focuses on whether this would be the moment that Erdogan would take the opportunity of his re-election as an excuse to reset his relationship with the West. Ties between Turkey and its Western allies have been visibly deteriorating since 2016. Inside Turkey, nearly half of the population that did not vote for him were despondent at the prospect of another five years of Erdogan at the helm, while the remaining half are curious to see if Turkey’s veteran politician will be able to fix the country’s acute and worsening economic problems. An uncomfortable yet frequently talked about prospect is missing from the litany of analyses: the likelihood of Erdogan leaving office by elections may have passed. We may be stuck with Erdogan until he passes away or is forced out of office by undemocratic means.
Part of the reason rests on the state of Turkey’s political opposition: there isn’t one that voters believe is a credible alternative to Erdogan. Close observers of Turkish electoral politics are split between those who think opposition political parties are simply incompetent and those who are convinced that the opposition is in cahoots with Erdogan and even worked to get him reelected. Depending on your point of view, both scenarios have merits. The Republican People’s Party (CHP) presidential candidate, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, ran a horrendous campaign. If one were interested in losing an election to Erdogan, one would repeat Kilicdaroglu’s strategy. The CHP camp never appeared ready or interested in taking over governing from Erdogan. As a result, much of the Turkish electorate is so thoroughly demoralized that they have disconnected themselves from politics entirely. Put simply, there is no public pressure to constrain Erdogan and certainly nothing like the Gezi Park protests. These demonstrations were the only time Erdogan feared popular unrest. Accordingly, he brutally suppressed them and branded demonstrators as terrorists. Now, Turkish citizens are politically deflated and afraid to challenge Erdogan.
On the other hand, some commentators accuse the Kilicdaroglu campaign of working clandestinely to ensure Erdogan won the election. This emerging view argues that the opposition was not genuinely campaigning to unseat Erdogan but only engaged in the theatrics of electioneering. The main reason for doing so is because Erdogan paid some opposition leaders. Meral Aksener, the leader of the Good Party (IP)—a senior member of the electoral “Nation Alliance,” supposedly created to defeat Erdogan—is accused of receiving $100 million to torpedo their joint campaign. If this accusation is accurate, this is the surest sign that Erdogan can purchase political opposition for a price, and future elections will be nothing but charades.
This doesn’t mean that all opposition political actors are for sale. In a scenario where Erdogan is challenged successfully by a credible and incorruptible candidate, the president would employ likely legal mechanisms to eliminate him. We are witnessing this eventuality with the mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoglu. Having been prevented from being named the CHP’s presidential candidate by Kilicdaroglu, Imamoglu has already set his sights on the 2028 presidential election campaign. For the forgeable future, Imamoglu is the likeliest person who could defeat Erdogan at the ballot box, but he is unlikely to succeed in this venture. Next spring, Imamoglu will try his hardest to be reelected mayor of Istanbul. Erdogan will do everything in his power to oust him. In the realm of legitimate (yet ethically dubious) actions, Erdogan will use the office of the presidency and the mainstream press to try and discredit Imamoglu. He will then see if this moves voter sentiment to favor his candidate. If it does, there is no need for further action: Imamoglu and the CHP lose Istanbul. If voters still favor Imamoglu over Erdogan’s candidate, then Erdogan is likely to call upon a high court to uphold a lower court ruling in 2022 that bans Imamoglu from politics. In other words, heads Erdogan wins, tails Imamoglu loses.
Under such circumstances, if we accept that Erdogan will remain in power indefinitely, should the West just learn to live with him? After all, he is the devil we know. Perhaps we can work with him on a transactional basis since the United States and the transatlantic alliance share security interests. The Biden administration would tell us we value Turkey’s assistance in the Ukraine conflict, its efforts in containing migratory flows to the West, and the role that it could play as a bulwark to contain, even undermine, Iran.
A transactional approach to working with Erdogan would work if the United States government were consistent and steadfast in its approach to Turkey. It is not. We should also be aware that in dealing with Erdogan, we are not dealing with an ally but a budding autocrat interested in leveraging his position with Western security institutions to his own advantage. The Biden administration frequently sanctions Turkish entities for violating international sanctions against Russia’s illegal war in Ukraine. It has issued numerous warnings to Erdogan to instruct Turkey’s banking sector (which proved successful) to stop accepting Russian financial transfers, allowing oligarchs to operate with impunity on the world stage and dodge sanctions. Since 2022, scores of Turkish companies have supplied the Russian military with dual-use microchip technology that helps operate Moscow’s weaponry. Instead of insisting Ankara ends its support of Putin’s war, the White House panders to Erdogan.
Moreover, before Erdogan does the bare minimum of what is required of an ally and approves Sweden’s NATO membership, why is the Biden team quietly coordinating with the World Bank to extend Turkey a virtually conditions-free line of credit worth $35 billion to prop up the dictator’s ailing economy? Would it not be better to insist that Erdogan makes good on Sweden before giving him free money? Or before Biden asks Congress to remove its objections to selling Turkey new F-16 fighter jets, we could request Ankara to offer guarantees (through an ongoing certification process) that it will not threaten other NATO allies such as Greece, or while we’re on the subject, ask Erdogan to end shipping rocket-making materials to terrorist organizations such as Hamas?
Oscillating between sticks and carrots plays to Erdogan’s strengths. It allows him to manipulate different branches of the U.S. government to get what he wants while remaining noncommittal on the White House’s key expectations. At the recent United Nations General Assembly, Erdogan gave an interview with PBS News, where he announced that he “trusts Russia as much as the United States.” The United States should stand consistently behind its demands from Erdogan before giving him what he wants for one simple reason: he needs the United States more than we need him. Let’s meet his jingoism with consistency and stop him playing us like a fiddle.
**Sinan Ciddi is a non-resident senior fellow at FDD and an expert on Turkish domestic politics and foreign policy. He is also an Associate Professor of National Security Studies at Marine Corps University (MCU). Prior to joining MCU, Sinan was the Executive Director of the Institute of Turkish Studies, based at Georgetown University (2011–2020). Between 2008 and 2011, he established the Turkish Studies program at the University of Florida’s Center for European Studies. He continues to serve as an Adjunct Associate Professor at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service. Follow Sinan on X @SinanCiddi. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

Memo to Biden: The United Nations Won’t Love You Back
Richard Goldberg and Enia Krivine/National Review/October 04/2023
As President Biden visited New York last month to attend the United Nations General Assembly, the U.N. system proved itself as broken as ever — continuing to bite the U.S. taxpayer hand that feeds this giant bureaucracy and proving once again that engagement for engagement’s sake is not a viable strategy for U.N. reform.
Two days before President Biden delivered his remarks to the U.N. General Assembly, the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) World Heritage Committee met in Riyadh, adding a Bronze Age settlement located outside the ancient city of Jericho to its list of World Heritage Sites. The listing’s summary claims the ruins “provide unquestionable testaments of . . . one of the most important Canaanite city-states in Palestine” and UNESCO classifies the site as being located in the “State of Palestine.” Words like “Israel,” “Joshua,” and “Jewish” do not appear in the documents accompanying the new World Heritage Site. UNESCO’s action is deliberately calculated to chip away at the Jewish connection to the Holy Land. Indeed, Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas exposed the ploy when he praised UNESCO’s decision to recognize Palestinians living in Jericho for “1000s of years.”
This isn’t the first time UNESCO has tried to erase Jewish history — but it’s the first time since President Biden decided that the U.S. would rejoin the agency, promising that an American presence would help reform it. In 2016, UNESCO adopted an antisemitic resolution denying the Jewish people’s historic ties to Jerusalem and the Temple Mount — the holiest site for Jews. In 2017, UNESCO declared the Tomb of the Patriarchs in Hebron — where all matriarchs and patriarchs of the Jewish people are believed buried — to be an endangered Palestinian site. The Trump administration withdrew U.S. participation in UNESCO the following year.
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Rather than insist that UNESCO repeal that resolution and acknowledge Jewish historical ties throughout the Land of Israel before the U.S. would reenter, the Biden administration lobbied Congress for a change in law allowing a resumption of U.S. funding despite UNESCO’s recognition of Palestinian statehood in the absence of peace with Israel. The U.S. rejoined and began paying down more than $600 million in arrears in July, only to be sucker-punched with another antisemitic act as the president arrived in New York last week.
For more than two years now, the U.N. has repaid the Biden administration’s conciliatory gestures with broken promises. The administration rejoined the U.N. Human Rights Council claiming that U.S. participation in a kangaroo court of human-rights abusers would eliminate anti-Israel bias and advance American interests. Nearly two years into America’s term on the council, an antisemitic commission of inquiry seeking to delegitimize Israel’s existence continues — with Washington never introducing a resolution to end its mandate. Renewed U.S. aid to the World Health Organization and the U.N. Relief and Works Agency has delivered negative return on investment — with UNRWA refugee camps in Gaza, the West Bank, and Lebanon becoming hubs of terror activity while the WHO boasts North Korea as its newest executive-board member.
The administration had demanded the legal ability to rejoin UNESCO, claiming it necessary to counter China within the U.N. system. But at the recent World Heritage Committee meeting in Riyadh, Beijing’s own agenda of historic revisionism pressed on, with UNESCO adding tea forests in southwest China as a World Heritage Site.
The Biden administration’s track record of countering China at the U.N. is abysmal. Earlier this year, the State Department failed to field any candidate to run against the Chinese head of the U.N.’s Food and Agriculture Organization — giving Beijing a major victory in its quest to solve one of its greatest strategic vulnerabilities: food insecurity. The administration didn’t even try to challenge the WHO’s Beijing-influenced director general despite China’s continued cover-up of Covid-19’s origins. A U.S. attempt to hold China accountable inside the Human Rights Council for its genocide in Xinjiang failed. And China still works with Russia to stymie Washington in the Security Council. The goal of countering China within the U.N. system is noble. Believing that it can be achieved by abandoning U.S. leverage is woefully misguided.
Countering China, however, is not the real reason the U.S. has rejoined a U.N. organization that continues to spew antisemitism. The real reason is the Biden administration’s unshakable ideological belief in the utility of U.N. engagement for engagement’s sake — the notion that swimming against anti-American currents in a sea of dictators will produce positive results for U.S. national security. The overwhelming evidence suggests the opposite is true. By unilaterally giving up the leverage that would be needed to achieve reforms, American diplomats are essentially swimming without a life preserver, overtaken by the authoritarian currents, and leaving American interests at the bottom of the sea. It’s up to Congress to rescue those interests by reverting U.S. law to prohibit funding for UNESCO — and withholding U.S. assistance to all U.N. bodies that subvert our national security.
*Richard Goldberg is a senior adviser at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD). Enia Krivine is the senior director of FDD’s Israel Program and National Security Network.

Putin's Man in Ankara: Erdoğan
Burak Bekdil/Gatestone Institute/October 04/2023
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is trying to get the most from Turkey's theoretical Western allies while in reality allying with Russian President Vladimir Putin – like sort of a Muslim Fidel Castro.
"[A]ny sense of a significant change in Mr. Erdoğan's balancing act between Russia and the West appeared to evaporate on Monday, when he and Mr. Putin stood side by side after a meeting in the Russian resort town of Sochi and spoke of expanding cooperation." — Editorial, The New York Times, September 4, 2023.
Erdoğan returned home [from Sochi] with an agenda to convince Western parties to the [grain corridor] deal on whatever terms Moscow insists should be in any new agreement.
Erdoğan needs Western money to prevent Turkey's economic suicide. He needs U.S.-made fighter jets to maintain a delicate power balance over the Aegean skies. He needs Western pats on the shoulder to win legitimacy for his undemocratic one-man rule. But he wants all of these cookies without having to give up Russia. Over the past years, Erdoğan has made Turkey addicted to Russia, like a junkie to a dealer.
[I]t was appalling to hear an EU ambassador in Ankara tell me that he was appalled that Erdoğan said that a) he trusts Russia as much as he trusts the West, and that b) Ankara could "part ways" with the European Union if necessary. Erdogan's ultranationalist ally, Devlet Bahçeli, immediately endorsed the cheap bluff: "We're done with the EU."
That is the way Erdoğan does horse trading. Sadly, each time, the gullible West gets cheated.
Erdoğan's Turkey is one of the countries breaking Western sanctions on Russia. Earlier in September, the US State Department imposed sanctions on five Turkish shipping and trade companies for repairing Russian Defense Ministry vessels, transporting Russian military goods, and helping Russia to evade sanctions.
Perhaps Erdoğan is right. Turkey should part ways with the EU – and NATO too.
In an article published last month, this author suggested:
"Once again, Western optimists are misreading Erdoğan, that he is 'rekindling fraught relations with the West.' He just needs Western money, a few pats on the shoulder and legitimacy for his sultanship."
The New York Times, in an editorial, woke up and agreed:
"Just two months ago, many in the West thought they had seen indications that President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan of Turkey was shifting away from what they saw as his overly chummy relationship with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia.
"Turkey allowed a group of celebrated Ukrainian fighters to return to the battlefield, prompting Russia to accuse it of violating an agreement. And Mr. Erdoğan finally dropped his resistance to allowing Sweden to join NATO, strengthening the military alliance aimed at countering Russia.
"But any sense of a significant change in Mr. Erdoğan's balancing act between Russia and the West appeared to evaporate on Monday, when he and Mr. Putin stood side by side after a meeting in the Russian resort town of Sochi and spoke of expanding cooperation."
Back in July, the West wanted to maintain its comfortable sleep over bitter facts when Erdoğan unexpectedly green-lit Sweden's bid to join NATO. This move provoked a degree of celebration and praise that individual leaders rarely get at a summit. U.S. President Joe Biden applauded Erdoğan's "courage, leadership, and diplomacy." "This is a historic day," NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said. Erdoğan could not have been read more mistakenly.
At the Sochi summit on September 4, Erdoğan, speaking as if he were Putin's spokesman, suggested that "Ukraine should soften its position on the grain corridor deal," referring to the UN-brokered Black Sea Grain Corridor Agreement, from which Russia had withdrawn on July 17. Having taken orders from the boss, Erdoğan returned home with an agenda to convince Western parties to the deal on whatever terms Moscow insists should be in any new agreement.
Erdoğan needs Western money to prevent Turkey's economic suicide. He needs U.S.-made fighter jets to maintain a delicate power balance over the Aegean skies. He needs Western pats on the shoulder to win legitimacy for his undemocratic one-man rule. But he wants all of these cookies without having to give up Russia. Over the past years, Erdoğan has made Turkey addicted to Russia, like a junkie to a dealer.
Russia is building -- and will own -- Turkey's first nuclear power plant in Akkuyu on the Mediterranean coast. In Sochi, Erdoğan and Putin agreed to build a second Russian nuclear power plant, planned for Sinop on the Black Sea coast.
In 2022, Russian exports to Turkey reached $60 billion, making the country the biggest source of Turkey's imports. In 2021, Russia ranked second after China, with exports worth $29 billion to Turkey. Turkey's crude oil imports from Russia rose from 10 million tons in 2021 to 19 million tons in 2022. This means Russia supplied 41% of Turkey's total oil imports in 2022. Turkey's energy watchdog said that in May-June of 2023, Russia's share of oil imports reached 50%. Also in 2022, Russia also supplied 39% of Turkey's natural gas. Russia is Turkey's top energy supplier.
Five million Russian tourists visited Turkey in 2022. The head of Turkish construction companies' union, Erdal Eren, said that Turkish companies hold $18 billion to $20 billion in their Russian construction portfolio.
Against this backdrop, it was appalling to hear an EU ambassador in Ankara tell me that he was appalled that Erdoğan said that a) he trusts Russia as much as he trusts the West, and that b) Ankara could "part ways" with the European Union if necessary. Erdogan's ultranationalist ally, Devlet Bahçeli, immediately endorsed the cheap bluff: "We're done with the EU."
That is the way Erdoğan does horse trading. Sadly, each time, the gullible West gets cheated.
At least $14 million worth of coal produced in the eastern Ukrainian regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, occupied by Russia, has been exported to NATO member Turkey this year, according to Russian customs data reviewed by Reuters. Between February and July 2023, about 160,400 tons of coal from the regions arrived in Turkey. Three producers listed in the customs data confirmed to Reuters they had shipped coal from the two regions to Turkey during that period.
Erdoğan's Turkey is one of the countries breaking Western sanctions on Russia. Earlier in September, the US State Department imposed sanctions on five Turkish shipping and trade companies for repairing Russian Defense Ministry vessels, transporting Russian military goods, and helping Russia to evade sanctions.
Perhaps Erdoğan is right. Turkey should part ways with the EU – and NATO too.
*Burak Bekdil, one of Turkey's leading journalists, was recently fired from the country's most noted newspaper after 29 years, for writing in Gatestone what is taking place in Turkey. He is a Fellow at the Middle East Forum.
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West’s unlimited support for Ukraine beginning to waver
Mohamed Chebaro/Arab News/October 04, 2023
Whichever way you spin it, Ukraine will surely feel a bit left out in the cold by last weekend’s deal that prevented a shutdown of the US government.
The fight against Russia in Ukraine is suddenly at the mercy of right-wing populist Republicans in Congress, which is likely to put the US’ reputation and leadership in the world in the spotlight. It may also, by stalling any new US military aid that is desperately needed in Ukraine for its counteroffensive, scupper all Western efforts to stand up to what is coined as a belligerent Russia.
The funding bill passed in Congress late on Saturday will keep federal agencies running for another 45 days. But further bargaining and brinkmanship is likely in November, as Congress has failed to allocate the necessary funding for the 438 government agencies for the whole fiscal year that began on Oct. 1.
Barely a week after the president of Ukraine was in New York appealing for more funds to support the war machine to stop Russia, the question now is whether a new approach is needed, since Congress, as a compromise, decided to drop new funding for Ukraine from the fiscal package due to opposition from hard-line Republicans.
It seems the issue has become politicized and is now being used by Republicans against the Biden administration
Despite President Joe Biden reminding everybody that America has a duty to help Ukraine stand up to Moscow’s brutal invasion, it seems the issue has become politicized and is now being used by Republicans against the Biden administration. The fate of that vital military aid is now in jeopardy, as Kyiv tries to make progress in its sluggish counteroffensive before winter sets in.
Biden pushing House Speaker Kevin McCarthy to rush a separate Ukraine funding bill through Congress will not be enough, as the speaker himself was on Tuesday ousted by a small band of pro-Donald Trump Republican legislators. His removal following the introduction of a motion to vacate by Rep. Matt Gaetz throws the day-to-day running of the House into even greater disarray.
The US administration’s scramble to assure its allies, the people of Ukraine and the world that they can count on American support and that Washington “will not walk away,” as Biden said after the funding bill vote, only goes to show how weakened it has become in the face of growing domestic politicization and polarization, particularly within the Republican Party. But there is also a possible feeling of war fatigue among more moderate lawmakers that risks derailing further US commitments in Ukraine and elsewhere in the world. Most worrying is that the high inflation that has hit Western societies means many countries, particularly the US, are now reluctant to write a blank check to Ukraine. An ABC/Washington Post poll released at the end of September showed that 41 percent of respondents said the US was doing too much to support Ukraine, up from 33 percent in February. Many fear that even a temporary delay in the supply of weapons or funds to Ukraine would be a big boost to its enemies and that the US domestic quarrels are likely to start to weigh heavily on the plight of the Ukrainians and Western efforts to stop Moscow’s aggression.
It is not an exaggeration to say that the shutdown brinkmanship can only point to America sliding further toward a type of neo-isolationism that will likely only get worse. This is especially so when you hear statements from populists like Florida Sen. Rick Scott, a Republican, calling on Congress to have “a conversation with the American public,” as he claimed that people in his state want to be helpful to Ukraine but also helpful to Americans too. McCarthy was not far behind when he suddenly asked to know what would constitute a victory in Ukraine before he would advance another bill authorizing further military aid to Kyiv.
The high inflation that has hit Western societies means many countries are now reluctant to write a blank check to Ukraine
The US has approved four rounds of aid to Ukraine in response to the Russian invasion, totaling more than $113 billion. In August, Biden called for a further $24 billion and he this week urged Republicans to “stop the games” and secure the passage of a separate bill to fund Ukraine soon. However, any bill on funding for Ukraine is likely dependent on the approval of more money to stop immigrants crossing the US’ border with Mexico, which is a key Republican demand.
Clearly, there needs to be a shift in approach if countries are to remain united and with the necessary resolve to face and defeat Russia in Ukraine. The Ukrainian support file must not be part of the partisan competition between various parties in the US and Europe. The events in Congress over the last week might have lasting repercussions for Ukraine. In Europe, the picture is not any better. Monday’s meeting of EU foreign ministers in Kyiv was a good show of resolve, but it only put a plaster on a bleeding wound, especially as another country in the bloc of 27, Slovakia, yielded in its election to a pro-Russia politician who will now head its government on the back of a promise to stop all weapons transfers to Kyiv.
Meanwhile, for Ukraine, it is a zero-sum game. Without aid and weapons, the war will be lost. The flow of weapons from the West is unlikely to stop soon, but the events in Congress are likely to dent the certainty previously felt in Ukraine about that unwavering support. Meanwhile, all these events on Capitol Hill are welcome news in the Kremlin, which has been betting for the past 20 months on the resolve of the democratic Western nations wavering sooner or later.
**Mohamed Chebaro is a British-Lebanese journalist, media consultant and trainer with more than 25 years of experience covering war, terrorism, defense, current affairs and diplomacy.