Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on October 03-04/2023
Western countries are watching with a dead conscious a new massacre committed against the Armenian people in Nagorno-Karabakh/Elias Bejjani/October 01/2023
Finance committee accuses govt. of 'illegally' spending from SDRs
Geagea urges action on refugee crisis instead of words
Sharafeddine lashes out at 'subservient' Bou Habib
Hezbollah official decries 'US veto' on consensus in Lebanon
Qatar's mission ongoing as Shiite Duo continues to support Franjieh
Bou Habib: West, Syria rejecting refugee return, Lebanon mulling alternatives
Security forces arrest two Syrians over people smuggling from Libya to Europe
Qaouq says no progress on presidency despite local and foreign efforts
Nasrallah: Nothing new expected on presidency in near future
Sayyed Nasrallah: Lebanese Government Must Allow Syrian Refugees to Move Safely into Europe by Sea
Consortium of TotalEnergies, Eni, QatarEnergy Bids in Lebanon Oil and Gas Licensing Round
Hezbollah, Israel urgently need a deconfliction mechanism/Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib/Arab News/October 02, 2023
Iran official admits country’s role in terror bombing that killed 241 US military members: report/Benjamin Weinthal/Fox News/October 2/2023
Will Anyone in Lebanon and Palestine Take What Saudi Arabia Has Said into Account?/
Sam Menassa/Asharq Al-Awsat/October 02/2023

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on October 02-03/2023
Armenian exodus from Nagorno-Karabakh ebbs as Azerbaijan moves to reaffirm control
Armenia reports 'casualties' after saying Azerbaijan opened fire
Armenian separatist officials stay in Karabakh to oversee rescue search
Second Israeli minister 'received warmly' in Saudi Arabia amid normalization push
Two Syrian soldiers injured in Israeli air attack on army sites in Deir al Zor
Saudi soccer team refuses to play in Iran over busts of slain general, in potential diplomatic row
Israeli veteran calls 1973 war a necessary 'slap in the face'
Turkey strikes PKK bases in Iraq after Ankara bombing
Iraq Rejects Turkish Strikes in Kurdistan Region, Seeks Resolution
EU convenes 'historic meeting' of foreign ministers in Kyiv
Kremlin Sees US Budget Setback for Ukraine as Harbinger of Western War Fatigue
Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces Seize Military Base in Kordofan
EU Pledges Lasting Support at ‘Historic’ Kyiv Meeting
Houthi attack on Bahrain's soldiers tests Yemen's fragile cease-fire, US defense pact
Does Ankara attack mark strategy shift for Turkey's PKK?

Titles For The Latest English LCCC  analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on October 02-03/2023
Palestinians Steal Water From Palestinians, Then Blame Israel/Bassam Tawil/Gatestone Institute/October 2, 2023
Iran and the Open Secret/Tariq Al-Homayed/Asharq Al-Awsat/October 02/2023
Strengthening diplomatic ties with Saudi Arabia in a changing world/Michael Kindsgrab/Arab News/October 02, 2023
Decline of US political debate should worry the world/Chris Doyle/Arab News/October 02, 2023

Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on October 02-03/2023
Western countries are watching with a dead conscious a new massacre committed against the Armenian people in Nagorno-Karabakh
Elias Bejjani/September30, 2023
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/122696/122696/
What a disgrace, and hypocrisy is unfolding.
The Western countries that laud civilization, Freedom, human right, democracy and take pride in raising the banners of the international covenant of human rights, have lost everything that is humanity, conscience, self respect, credibility and morals.
These countries, due to their secularism, selfishness, atheism, ingratitude, and regression to the original sinful human nature, have become completely estranged from all their values, history, national and humanitarian obligations and commitments.
Yes, unfortunately, all these countries, cloaked satanic competition, corrupt and secularism, have sunk up to their ears in everything that sadistic and commercial priorities.  They have abandoned their previous conception and assessment of everything that is human, faith-filled  and of eternal values.
These countries, led by Russia are stupidly, dead in their conscience, faith, and hope, are watching a new massacre of a horrific ethnic cleansing committed by Azerbaijan and its ally, Turkey, against the Armenian people in Nagorno-Karabakh
The Armenian people in Nagorno-Karabakh are killed, abused, tortured, displaced from the land of their ancestors, uprooted from their history roots by force, and ethnically cleansed.
Meanwhile Russia in particular, and the countries of the West in general, without a single exception, are not lifting a finger, but rather blessing the massacre, allying themselves with its perpetrators, and cheering for them.
What a shame, these satanic secular regimes are worshiping earthly riches, abandoning all values, principles, human rights and the Armenians' destiny of freedom.
What is sad and painful at the same time, is that the Armenian people, whom the Turkish Ottoman Empire exposed to the most horrific crime in history between the years 1914-1915, have once again been left prey to the predatory human monsters represented by Azerbaijan's dictator Ilham Aliyevnt, and his Islamic fundamentalist Turkish ally, President Erdogan, who are both drowning in the mire of hatred, fanaticism, historical hatred and deeply rooted sickening grudges.
What is totally condemned is this ungrateful West has allowed the Azerbaijan’s corrupt, blustering dictator Ilham Aliyev, and his ally, the traitorous and hateful Turkish, President Erdogan, to repeat the brutal massacres committed by their Ottoman ancestors against the Armenian people.
In conclusion, the West has blessed Aliyev's - Erdogan's brutality, and their thirst to shed Armenian blood, despite the fact that Turkey is a member of the NATO alliance, that is supposed to protect peace, freedoms and democracy.
It remains that the West's satanic and inhumane shameful silence in regards to the massacres  perpetrated against the Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh is fully denounced and condemned
Background
The Armenian Genocide, Armenian Massacres, or Armenian Holocaust (Armenian: Հայոց Ցեղասպանութիւն) (Turkish: Ermeni Soykırımı) was the systematic mass killing and expulsion of Armenians that took place in the territories of the Ottoman Empire by the government of the Society of Union and Progress during World War I. Although separate massacres have been committed against Armenians since the middle of the year 1914 AD, it is agreed that the date of the beginning of the genocide is April 24, 1915 AD, which is the day on which the Ottoman authorities gathered hundreds of Armenian intellectuals and notables, arrested them, and deported them from Constantinople (Istanbul today) to the province of Ankara, where they were killed. Most of them died.

Finance committee accuses govt. of 'illegally' spending from SDRs
Naharnet/October 02/2023
The Finance and Budget Parliamentary Committee convened Monday to discuss the legality of the government's spendings from the $1.139 billion in Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) disbursed by the International Monetary Fund. The committee's head, MP Ibrahim Kanaan, said after the meeting that the committee has decided to refer the SDR file to the Audit Bureau, accusing the government of spending illegally from the SDR without the parliament's approval and supervision. “We have decided to refer the SDR file to the Audit Bureau because it violated the law, as the government has spent through private accounts at the Central Bank and hasn't resortet to Parliament to legalize spending," Kanaan said."The government and the Central Bank do not have the right to open accounts without going through the treasury,” he added.

Geagea urges action on refugee crisis instead of words
Naharnet/October 02/2023
Lebanese Forces chief Samir Geagea on Monday acknowledged that the Syrian refugee crisis has become an “existential threat” for Lebanon, calling for measures by the government instead of “statements and political exploitation.”“The Free Patriotic Movement and its allies don’t represent a mere majority in the government but rather the entire caretaker Cabinet, so why doesn’t this government convene and give clear and very specific executive orders to all the security agencies that are concerned with implementing the Lebanese laws?” Geagea wondered. “Following up on this step in a strenuous and serious manner by the relevant ministers, especially the ministers of interior, defense and justice, is the only thing that can fend off this existential threat from Lebanon, while statements and political exploitation will only lead to deepening the crisis and making it more and more widespread,” the LF leader warned.

Sharafeddine lashes out at 'subservient' Bou Habib
Naharnet/October 02/2023
Caretaker Minister of the Displaced Issam Sharafeddine has launched a vehement verbal attack on caretaker Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib over the Syrian refugee file. “You talk a lot and I tolerated you last time, but what are you good for? You are subservient, gutless and complicit,” Sharafeddine added. Asked about Bou Habib’s remarks that it would be useless to visit Syria to discuss the refugee file, Sharafeddine said: “We will see.”In a TV interview, Bou Habib had announced that his visit to Syria would not achieve miracles and that there is “international pressure” to keep the situation as it is.

Hezbollah official decries 'US veto' on consensus in Lebanon
Naharnet/October 02/2023
Hezbollah central council member Sheikh Nabil Qaouq has noted that “there are foreign, international and domestic initiatives to resolve the presidential crisis but no progress towards a solution.”“This is because the challenge and confrontation folk have torpedoed all these initiatives due to deep-rooted grudges and failed bets,” Qaouq said. “They don’t want a solution, consensus or understanding, but rather conflict, internal confrontation and dragging the country into strife. Their project intersects with the objectives of the July 2006 war, but let it be known that we will not accept and will never accept for a day to come on which anyone passes any Israeli goal that we had defeated in Wadi al-Hjeir and the Khiyam Plain,” the Hezbollah official added. Moreover, Qaouq said that there is a “foreign veto” on consensus and rapprochement in Lebanon. “This is totally clear in the U.S. stance, seeing as it is prohibited for the Lebanese to meet, agree and sit together, and when the Swiss Embassy called for a meeting gathering the Lebanese parties, the U.S. objected and the meeting was called off,” Qaouq charged. He added that “the group of challenge and confrontation through its foiling of initiatives and agreements has become a heavy burden on the country, because it is the reason behind all these crises and does not want a solution.”“We in Hezbollah and the Amal Movement are night and day searching for any chance to rescue the country, while they are searching night and day for any chance to incite, create tensions, obstruct and drag the country into strife, but we will not give up our responsibilities and will not be dragged into any incitement,” Qaouq added.

Qatar's mission ongoing as Shiite Duo continues to support Franjieh
Naharnet/October 02/2023
As Lebanon continues to plunge in bitter political divisions, Qatar is silently trying to help it break its long presidential impasse. Qatari envoy Jassem Bin Fahad Al-Thani is still in Beirut on a consultative mission that he will resume this week with a visit to the Grand Serail, informed sources told al-Joumhouria newspaper, in remarks published Monday.The secret mission of the Qatari envoy is coordinated with France, the sources said, claiming that the two envoys -- The Qatari and the French -- are regularly discussing the developments. The mission also has the support of Saudi Arabia and Iran, a local media report said, claiming that KSA supports the election of a third candidate, other than Suleiman Franjieh and Jihad Azour. The report, published in al-Binaa newspaper, added that Qatari officials are regularly talking to Hezbollah. A media report published in al-Liwaa newspaper had claimed that Qatar is trying to convince Hezbollah's candidate Marada Movement chief Suleiman Franjieh to withdraw from the presidential race. A prominent lawmaker denied the claims, and told Asharq al-Awsat, in remarks published Monday, that the Qatari envoy has not asked Franjieh to withdraw, but asked Hezbollah secretary-general's aide Hussein Khalil, in a meeting, what would Hezbollah do in case Franjieh decided to withdraw. Hezbollah assured Al-Thani that it is still supporting Franjieh and would never cease to, unless he decides himself to withdraw.

Bou Habib: West, Syria rejecting refugee return, Lebanon mulling alternatives
Naharnet/October 02/2023
Caretaker Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib has said that both the West and Damascus are rejecting the return of Syrian refugees from Lebanon to the war-torn country. Bou Habib, who is currently in Washington, spoke to al-Joumhouria newspaper about the steps that a ministerial committee will make to communicate with Syria over the return of the refugees. In addition to Bou Habib, the committee comprises General Security acting chief Maj. Gen. Elias Bayssari and Higher Defense Council chief Maj. Gen. Mohammed al-Mustafa. “During my presence in New York, I met with Syrian Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad and Syria’s envoy to the U.N. Bassam Sabbagh, who will become deputy foreign minister, and I agreed with the minister that I will visit Damascus after my return from the United States,” Bou Habib told the daily. He however noted that “the official Syrian stance is known and was declared by President Bashar al-Assad in an interview with Sky News.”“He informed us of it when we visited Damascus to offer condolences over the victims of the earthquake. The Syrian stance says, ‘We’re ready to receive the refugees and solve their problems, but how will they return while the U.N. is offering them financial, health, educational and food support in Lebanon, Jordan, Turkey and other nations?’” Bou Habib added. “Most importantly, how will they return to their destroyed villages while there is no possibility to rebuild them without Arab and international support that is currently unavailable?” the minister quoted Syrian officials as saying. Asked about the outcome of his meetings in New York, Bou Habib said: “The U.N. is still considering the situation in Syria to be unsafe and it is paying them (refugees) money where they are. If they return and the U.N. pays them in Syria, they will be able to rebuild their homes and villages, but the international stance is opposed to the refugee return and they will not pay them if they return, so the refugees prefer to stay where they are.”“The root of the problem is political, not only financial, and Lebanon’s envoy to the U.N. Ambassador Hadi Hashem, who recently appointed, took part last week in a meeting of the subcommittee on the situation in Syria and sent us a report saying that the countries’ stances on the Syrian crisis are still the same,” Bou Habib added. As for the alternatives that Lebanon and Syria might resort to, the minister said: “We will mull the alternatives and there is a specialized team at the Foreign Ministry that is devising proposals which we will discuss during the Damascus visit upon my return, and we will listen to the alternative Syrian proposals.”

Security forces arrest two Syrians over people smuggling from Libya to Europe
Agence France Presse/October 02/2023
Lebanese security forces said Monday they had arrested two Syrian nationals previously based in Libya who were involved in smuggling people from the North African country to Europe. The men were arrested in Lebanon's east, an area near the Syrian border, after they entered the country irregularly, Lebanon's Internal Security Forces said in a statement. The pair were part of a network that smuggled "hundreds" of people including "Syrians, Lebanese, Egyptians, Palestinians" and others of unspecified African nationalities from Libya to Europe by boat, the statement added.
They admitted to asking $3,500 per person and to organising boat trips towards Italy and Greece. A boat they had arranged "sank off the coast of the Libyan city of Tobruk" in the country's east, resulting in "dozens of deaths", according to the statement, and the duo subsequently fled Libya for Syria. One of the duo worked with his brothers in Libya and Greece, the statement said, adding that the men had accomplices "in Lebanon's Wadi Khaled area", a key location for irregular crossings from Syria. Libya is a major gateway for migrants and asylum seekers attempting perilous sea voyages in often rickety boats in the hope of a better life in Europe. The central Mediterranean route has been dubbed the world's deadliest sea crossing for migrants. Lebanese authorities have ramped up efforts to confront irregular migration, and say they have prevented thousands of illegal crossings through Lebanon's porous border with Syria in recent weeks. They often announce they have thwarted smuggling operations by sea or the arrest of both smugglers and would-be migrants. Lebanon's economy collapsed in late 2019, turning the country into a launchpad for migrants. Lebanese nationals have increasingly been making the treacherous voyage towards Europe alongside Syrians fleeing war and economic woes in their country, as well as Palestinian refugees. Migrants seeking to reach Europe from Lebanon generally head for the east Mediterranean island of Cyprus less than 200 kilometers away.

Qaouq says no progress on presidency despite local and foreign efforts
Naharnet/October 02/2023
The domestic and foreign efforts regarding the presidential file “have not achieved any progress towards exiting the crisis,” a senior Hezbollah official said on Monday. “The equation has become clear and the internal balances in parliament oblige all parties to agree and talk to each other. Reaching an agreement has become compulsory for everyone and we had told them a year ago that dialogue is the only choice,” Hezbollah central council member Sheikh Nabil Qaouq said. “The efforts of the French and Qatari envoys over the past days and the domestic efforts, especially Speaker Nabih Berri’s initiative, proved that the camp of challenge and confrontation is still maneuvering in its nominations and is not serious about exiting the crisis,” Qaouq added.

Nasrallah: Nothing new expected on presidency in near future
Naharnet/October 02/2023
Hezbollah Secretary-General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah on Monday announced that “there is nothing clear or new in the near future” regarding the presidential file. “The Qatari envoy is exerting daily efforts, there is nothing clear or new in the near future and we must wait to see more efforts in the presidential file,” Nasrallah said in a televised address. “The Qatari envoy is trying to reach a certain result but there is nothing new that I can tell you,” he said. “The dialogue that Speaker Nabih Berri called for was a chance, but it was wasted due to bickering and arrogance,” Nasrallah lamented. Nasrallah also said that “it is unacceptable to link between the issue of the land border and the issue of the presidency.”“We do not bargain over the issue of the land border in any other files,” he added, while noting that negotiations over the land border with Israel is “the responsibility of the Lebanese state,” not Hezbollah. “The resistance will cooperate with the state in any step that contributes to liberating the land,” Nasrallah said. Moreover, the Hezbollah leader called for “a national plan and national strategy that the Lebanese would carry to the world” regarding the Syrian refugee crisis. “The United States was responsible for the war in Syria and it is now responsible for the economic crisis there,” he charged.

Sayyed Nasrallah: Lebanese Government Must Allow Syrian Refugees to Move Safely into Europe by Sea
Al-Manar English Website/October 3, 2023
Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah called on the various political parties in Lebanon to form a parliamentary or ministerial committee that represents all the segments of the nation in order to cope with the Syrian refugees file.
Addressing a ceremony held by Hezbollah at Sayyed Shuhada Complex in Beirut’s southern suburb, Dahiyeh, on the occasion of Prophet Mohammad’s (PBUH) birth anniversary, Sayyed Nasrallah sressed that this committee must devise a plan that details all the aspects of the Syrian refugees crisis, away from trading accusations. In this regard, Sayyed Nasrallah affirmed that the United States is the primary culprit involved in the Syrian refugees crisis, explaining the terrorist war, ignited by Washington, was behind the first wave of displacement and Caesar Act has been behind the renewed wave of Syrian displacement.
“Those who believe that the Syrian displacement threatens Lebanon’s existence must ask Washington that revoking the Caesar Act saves Lebanon,” Sayyed Nasrallah said, adding that, if Caesar Act is cancelled, hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees will return to their homeland. Sayyed Nasrallah indicated that the US ambassador to Beirut interrogates the Lebanese security chiefs if they order returning any Syrian into his homeland, adding that the security officers answer her rude questions for fear of the sanctions. Hezbollah Leader stressed that the UNHCR is violating the national sovereignty in Lebanon and granting proof of residency to the Syrian refugees. Sayyed Nasrallah emphasized that the Lebanese government must allow the Syrian refugees to move safely into Europe by sea, adding that this step would force the European states to hurry into Beirut and become subject to the Lebanese will in this regard. His eminence also indicated that, had Hezbollah been ruling Lebanon, the prime minister would have been ordered to lead a delegation into Damascus in order to discuss the issue with the Syrian officials. The imperial, ugly and insolent policies of the US administration are responsible for the displacement crisis in Lebanon, according to Sayyed Nasrallah, who called for dealing with the Syrian refugees in accordance with law and ethics.
National Rights
Hezbollah Secretary General said that Hezbollah will not respond to the political escalation and accusations falsely thrown by some Lebanese parties. Sayyed Nasrallah affirmed that Hezbollah will cooperate with the Lebanese government concerned with the issue of the land borders and the foreign mediation aimed at tackling this file. Sayyed Nasrallah described as trifle the political analysis which links this issue to the Lebanese presidential elections and the Iranian nuclear file. Hezbollah leader confirmed that the Resistance may never make concessions pertaining the national rights, just as the case of the maritime border demarcation. In this regard, Sayyed Narallah noted that the preliminary reports are indicating positive results of the maritime gas excavation in Block 9, adding that the cartel excavating Block 9 applied to obtain the license of excavating Block 8 and 10.
Presidential Elections
Sayyed Nasrallah pointed out that the dialogue initiative launched by House Speaker Nabih Berri was frustrated, adding that French initiative must be followed up. Citing the the efforts made by the Qatari envoy, Sayyed Nasrallah asserted that the presidential file has become vague with no clear progress.
Occasion
Sayyed Nasrallah felicitated the Muslims on Birth Anniversary of Prophet Muhammad (PBUH) and His Grandson Imam Jaafar As-Sadek (A.S.) as well as the Islamic Unity Week, calling for reinforcing the celebration of Prophet Muhammad (PBUH) Birthday. Sayyed Nasrallah hailed the Yemeni people for the marvelous celebration of Prophet Birthday, stressing that Muslims, all over the world, must follow the Yemeni sample in showing love, commitment and allegiance to the Messenger. Meanwhile, Sayyed Nasrallah denounced the terrorist attack against the Sunni Muslims marking the Messenger’s Birthday in Pakistan, wondering whether the Muslims do not have the right, and even duty, to celebrate this great occasion. Underlining the takfiri threat, Sayyed Nasrallah indicated that the Muslims must mark such occasions in order to thank God for this Mercy and that most of the Muslim scholars confirm that celebrating this occasion is not forbidden. “All Muslims appreciate the importance of the Prophet’s Birth Anniversary.”Sayyed Nasrallah underlined the role of Imam Khomeini in founding the Islamic Unity Week, adding that his eminence considers the noble Prophet’s mission as the greatest day. In light of the Quranic verse, {But Allh Will Perfect His Light}, whuch titles the ceremony. Sayyed Nasrallah stressed that Allah Almighty will certainly perfect His Light despite all the attempts of the disbelievers to prevent that. In this regard, Sayyed Nasrallah explained that Allah Almighty will perfect His Light by His direct intervention and through the believers who confront the soft warfare. Enemies resort to the soft warfare while launching military wars, according to Sayyed Nasrallah who added that some people confront the military wars, but surrender in face of the soft warfare. Sayyed Nasrallah also indicated that Imam Jaafar As-Sadek (A.S.) was one of the religion keepers and defenders, adding that the Imam turned Al-Madinah AL Munawwarah into an international university that attracts scientists from all over the world. We believe that Allah Almighty will perfect His Light via the blessed apparition of Imam Mahdi (A.S.) and Prophet Issa (A.S.), according to his eminence, who underscored the importance of frustrating sedition among the Muslims. Sayyed Nasrallah highlighted the sample when the Syrian and Egyptian armies united in 1973 and ‘Israel’ was suffocated to the extent of mulling use of nuclear bomb. Sayyed Nasrallah affirmed that Palestinian cause and Al-Aqsa Mosque must not be abandoned by the Muslims, calling on the Israeli enemy to listen to the voice of the Muslims in this regard. Sayyed Nasrallah underlined that every Muslim state that signs a normalization agreement with the Israeli enemy must be condemned. It is worth noting that the ceremony, which was started with Holy Quranic recitation, was attended by numerous Islamic figures as well large crowds.

Consortium of TotalEnergies, Eni, QatarEnergy Bids in Lebanon Oil and Gas Licensing Round
Asharq Al-Awsat/October 02/2023
A coalition of Total Energies , Eni and Qatar Energy applied for the second licensing round to bid on oil and gas blocks 8 and 10 in Lebanese waters, just an hour before the deadline on Monday, Lebanon's energy ministry said. The consortium is the same one that last month began drilling an exploratory well in Lebanon’s Block 9, one of the blocks falling alongside the newly delineated maritime border between Lebanon and Israel. The boundary was drawn last year following US-mediated talks. The deadline to bid on Blocks 8 and 10 had already been extended several times in recent years.

Hezbollah, Israel urgently need a deconfliction mechanism
Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib/Arab News/October 02, 2023
Tensions between Lebanon and Israel are peaking once again. The Israeli defense minister last month showed a picture of an alleged Iranian airport in the south of Lebanon that he said was being used “for terror purposes” against Israelis. Though no action was taken, the tension is very high on both sides. The fact that neither side actually wants a war does not mean that one will not break out. One faux pas can lead to war and this is why it is imperative to have a deconfliction mechanism.
Wars are not necessarily always a conscious and voluntary decision. The First World War, for example, was effectively caused by a single assassination. Tensions at the time were so high because of the competition between states, especially regarding colonies, that this act escalated into a world war.
Something similar could happen in Lebanon. The 2006 war was not planned, but tensions were high in Lebanon after the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, with Syria and its ally Hezbollah in the spotlight. In Israel, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert wanted to outperform his predecessor, Ariel Sharon, on national security. This is why Hezbollah’s kidnapping of two Israeli soldiers on the Blue Line, which otherwise could have been contained through indirect negotiations, led to all-out war. Even Hassan Nasrallah, the head of Hezbollah, later admitted that the war took the group by surprise.
Deconfliction is not a process established with a friend, but rather a process one uses to prevent a clash with an enemy
One might argue that the situation is different now, as we have the UN mission in the south of Lebanon that is supposedly ensuring peace between the two countries. However, the presence of the UN Interim Force in Lebanon is not enough. UNIFIL does not have control over Hezbollah and it does not have direct communication with the group. Hence, if an unfortunate act like the kidnapping of two Israeli soldiers happened again, it would be taken by surprise just like everyone else.This is why a deconfliction mechanism is needed. Deconfliction is not a process established with a friend, but rather a process one uses to prevent a clash with an enemy. For sure, Israel and Hezbollah do not want to talk to each other. Israel considers the group to be “terrorist,” while Hezbollah describes Israel as “Satan” and calls for its death during Friday prayers. Its legitimacy is based on animosity toward Israel and the degree to which it is truthful about it.
So, how can this dilemma be solved? Each party needs a guarantor and a deal should be established between the guarantors. It is important to note that both Hezbollah and Israel have had an unofficial agreement brokered by a guarantor before. The April Understanding was an indirect 1996 agreement mediated by the US to end the Israeli operation on Lebanon known as Grapes of Wrath.
The Lebanese army has a channel of communication with Hezbollah and, as long as the political powers accept the group, the army has to deal with it. It can use its communication channel to make sure the group is contained. On the other side, the Americans can be the guarantor for the Israelis. In this setup, the Lebanese army liaises with Hezbollah and the Americans liaise with the Israelis. The US and the Lebanese Armed Forces would also hold regular briefings to make sure that the southern front in Lebanon and the northern front in Israel were quiet. This is necessary, as neither country wants a clash to take place.
Also, the maritime borders have been agreed and both countries are keen to benefit from the Mediterranean gas fields. Israel has already started extracting gas, while a drilling rig arrived in Lebanese waters last month to start exploration. This means both countries have an interest in establishing a deconfliction mechanism that will prevent any unplanned war.
Both Israel and Lebanon have an interest in establishing a deconfliction mechanism that will prevent any unplanned war
For Hezbollah, the situation today is different to 2006. The group will probably not get the support it received from the different factions of society back then. Regionally, it is unlikely that Arab nations will pour money in the same way they did in the aftermath of the July war. So, the group knows that, this time, the war will be lethal.
But it will not only be deadly for the group — it will also be a knockdown blow to the entire country. Lebanon’s state institutions are crumbling and they cannot absorb the shock of an Israeli strike the same way they did in 2006. The international community, especially Europe, does not want to see Lebanon broken up and waves of refugees making their way across the Mediterranean.
As for Israel, its society is now more fractured than ever. Does Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu want war? Not really, especially now that he is trying to play nice with Arab states and progress the normalization process. Though a war might momentarily create a rally round the flag effect, it would soon create yet more divisions. Netanyahu would also be subjected to the same pressure that was exerted on Olmert to resign in the aftermath of the 2006 war. The difference today is that Netanyahu is in an even more precarious situation than Olmert was.
Therefore, despite the narratives, both parties need this deconfliction mechanism. Everyone needs calm on the Lebanese-Israeli front. This means it is up to the US to initiate such a process and for the Lebanese army to follow up on it.
*Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib is a specialist in US-Arab relations with a focus on lobbying. She is president of the Research Center for Cooperation and Peace Building, a Lebanese nongovernmental organization focused on Track II.

Iran official admits country’s role in terror bombing that killed 241 US military members: report/مسؤول إيراني يعترف بمسؤولية بلاده الإرهابية عن قتل 241 أميركياً في بيروت سنة 1983
Benjamin Weinthal/Fox News/Sun, October 1, 2023
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/122765/122765/
Nikki Haley: Joe Biden’s Iran deal is ‘incredibly reckless, irresponsible’
The Islamic Republic of Iran’s representative in Lebanon issued the first public announcement of the Iranian regime’s role in the mass murder of American military and diplomatic personnel in the early 1980s in Beirut.
The Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI) first located and translated the bombshell interview with Sayyed Issa Tabatabai, who serves as the representative of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in Lebanon.
The state-controlled Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) quickly scrubbed the damning disclosure that Tabatabai made about Iran’s role in the suicide bombings of Americans, but MEMRI preserved a copy.
Iran and its chief strategic ally, the U.S.-designated terrorist movement Hezbollah, in Lebanon have been blamed for bombing the U.S. Embassy in Beirut in 1983 in which 63 people, including 17 Americans, were murdered, and dual suicide truck bombers blew up the barracks of American and French members of a multinational force in Lebanon in 1983, in which 220 U.S. Marines, 18 U.S. Navy sailors and 3 U.S. Army soldiers lost their lives. Fifty-eight French troops were also murdered in the terrorist attack.OUTRAGE AS IRAN PRESIDENT PREPARES TO ADDRESS UN: ‘WANTS TO KILL AMERICAN CITIZENS’
According to the MEMRI translation of Tabatabai’s interview with the IRNA, Tabatabai said, “I quickly went to Lebanon and provided what was needed in order to [carry out] martyrdom operations in the place where the Americans and Israelis were.” He added, “The efforts to establish [Hezbollah] started in [Lebanon’s] Baalbek area, where members of [Iran’s] Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) arrived. I had no part in establishing the [political] party [Hezbollah], but God made it possible for me to continue the military activity with the group that had cooperated with us prior to the [Islamic] Revolution’s victory.”
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The MEMRI report continued, “It is noteworthy that the part of the interview in which Tabatabai acknowledged receiving Khomeini’s fatwa ordering attacks on American and Israeli targets in Lebanon was removed by IRNA from its website shortly after publication. This is apparently because no official representative of [Ayatollah Ruhollah] Khomeini, the father of the Islamic Republic, or of Khamenei, Iran’s Supreme Leader, had ever said that Iran had any involvement in ordering, planning and carrying out the massive bombings in Lebanon against U.S.,” wrote MEMRI.
Sayyed Issa Tabatabai
Sayyed Issa Tabatabai in an interview boasted of Iran’s involvement in the 1983 terror bombing of the U.S. Marine barracks in Beirut, Lebanon. The interview has since been erased from Iranian media.
Tabatabai also said during the interview, “With the victory of the Islamic Revolution [in Iran], Hezbollah was established [in the summer of 1982]. For two years, [Hezbollah’s] military base was located in my home. ‘The group’ [supporters of the Islamic Revolution] signed a contract declaring their willingness to become martyrs. Perhaps more than 70 [of them] signed this contract in my home.”
The significance of Tabatabai for the highest echelons of Iran’s regime was recently on display on the English language website of Iran’s Foreign Affairs Ministry. An entry shows Tabatabai meeting with Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian.
Amir-Abdollahian “highlighted [Sayyed] Issa Tabatabai’s significant support and contributions to enhancing ‘the resistance’s’ position in Lebanon, the region, and the Islamic world,” according to the Iranian Foreign Ministry text.
FBI SAYS CHINA, IRAN USING NEW TACTICS TO TARGET CRITICS IN US
Marine Barracks bombing
Volunteer rescue workers carry the body of a U.S. Marine on Oct. 24, 1983, the day after a terrorist truck bomb exploded at the Marine barracks in Beirut, Lebanon.
Michael Rubin, an Iran expert for the American Enterprise Institute, told Fox News Digital, “Americans have astonished both Iranians and the victims of Iranian terrorism with the diplomatic contortions undertaken to avoid holding Iran to account. Now that the supreme leader’s representative has confessed, the questions are: (1) Will Americans who carried water for Iranian terrorism apologize? (2) Will Iran pay compensation to the victims of their terror? If [President] Biden prices five Americans at $6 billion, the U.S. should demand no less than $289.2 billion from Iran today.”
Rubin’s reference to Americans who allegedly aided Iranian terrorism covers the allegations that Iranian Americans, one of whom works for the Defense Department, were involved in foreign lobbying for the Islamic Republic. The U.S. State Department has classified Iran’s regime as the worst international state sponsor of terrorism.
The MEMRI revelation could lead to new lawsuits against Iran’s regime for its role in the murder of American military and diplomatic personnel. According to MEMRI, “Iran has always vehemently denied any role in the bombings. It submitted no defense in response to the 2001 U.S. lawsuits filed against it by families of the hundreds of Americans killed or wounded in the barracks bombings.”
Fox News Digital reported in 2016 that a U.S. Supreme Court decision allowed families of victims of the 1983 bombing in Lebanon and other Iran regime-linked attacks to collect almost $2 billion of frozen funds from Iran.
UN NUCLEAR WATCHDOG SAYS ‘NO PROGRESS’ HAS BEEN MADE IN MONITORING IRANIAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM: REPORT
Banafsheh Zand, an Iranian-American expert on the Iranian regime, told Fox News Digital, “Issa Tabatabai’s admission is a sign of serious divisions among the regime’s top brass. No one within the ranks of either the clergy or the Revolutionary Guards would confess to such an action unless the infighting among the leadership of the Shia Mafia was escalating. For Tabatabai to acknowledge and take responsibility for that hideous act of terror, he must be sure that his superiors would not or could not punish him, otherwise he would have self-censored and skipped over major details.”
She continued, “But he didn’t. He has laid it all out – before the editors cut out swaths of his interview. So, it’s either that, or he feels he has nothing to lose. Either way, given the Biden [and French President Emmanuel Macron] administrations’ desperation for any facsimile of a deal with the Khomeinist regime, they will likely sweep this under the rug.”
MEMRI wrote that Tabatabai noted the “utter confidence placed in him by both Khomeini and his successor Khamenei, and underlined that he is Khamenei’s trusted representative in Lebanon in all things having to do with finance and the spread of the Shi’a.”
Beirut Barracks bombing
Edwin Marian Johnston holds a photo of her son, Marine Cpl. Edward Johnston, who died in the 1983 bombing of the Marine barracks in Beirut, Lebanon, outside federal court on Sept. 7, 2007, in Washington, D.C.
A Pentagon spokesperson referred questions from Fox News Digital to the State Department. Neither the State Department nor the National Security Council responded to those questions.
Potkin Azarmehr, a British-Iranian expert on Iran, told Fox News Digital, “It seems no matter how many times the Western leaders see the consequences of their appeasement with terrorists they are still resigned to continue the same doomed path they have in the last four decades.”
Numerous Fox News Digital press queries were sent to the Iranian Foreign Affairs Ministry and its U.N. mission for comment.
**Original article source: Iran official admits country’s role in terror bombing that killed 241 US military members: report

Will Anyone in Lebanon and Palestine Take What Saudi Arabia Has Said into Account?
Sam Menassa/Asharq Al-Awsat/October 02/2023
Rarely have global politics seen changes and shifts like those that have occurred since the war between Russia and Georgia in 2008, which was the first of its kind in Europe after World War Two. It was then followed by Russia's invasion of the Crimean Peninsula, and finally, the ongoing Ukrainian-Russian war that began in 2022 and has had major repercussions for international relations. The cards have been shuffled; new alliances have emerged and old ones have expanded, paving the way for a change of course giving rise to a global order founded on the principle of sovereign entities.
The indications abound. From NATO, which Finland and Sweden have now joined, to the AUKUS alliance to counter China between Britain, Australia, and the US, to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization that includes Iran and gave several Arab states the status of "Dialogue Partners," and the BRICS, which has agreed to an unprecedented expansion with the inclusion of several Arab states, and affirmed its pursuit of a multipolar world order in which the dollar does not dominate. We also have the I2U2 Group announced at the G20 summit, as a challenge to China's Belt and Road Initiative. 12U2 brings together the United States, the United Arab Emirates, India, and Israel, and aims to address issues such as food security, energy, and public health, as well as to work on the proposed economic corridor between India, the Middle East, and Europe.
The Middle East was not and will not be isolated from the implications of these pivotal changes. The most significant ramification was the normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran through Chinese mediation, and the Kingdom joining BRICS, which was recently discussed by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in his remarkable interview with the American network Fox News. In it, the Crown Prince presented a novel, cohesive vision for the future of the economy, development, politics, and social relations in his country and the region, primarily focusing on scaling down and resolving conflicts to pave the way for development, modernization, and a better future.
The Saudi Crown Prince candidly addressed, in a manner we are not used to seeing from Arab leaders, the Arab-Israeli conflict. He spoke about the ongoing negotiations between Riyadh and Washington aimed at achieving concrete results to alleviate the suffering of the Palestinians, emphasizing that finding a fair solution to the Palestinian question is a necessary requisite for normalizing relations with Israel. He denied claims about suspending negotiations with America, stating that "It is not true... Everyday, we are getting closer, and we will see.” He also said that if the Biden administration succeeds in brokering an agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel it would be “the biggest historical deal since the Cold War.”
It would not be an exaggeration to claim that the Crown Prince's interview is as significant a turning point as the signing of the Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty in 1979. It illustrates a new reality that goes beyond the Kingdom to encompass the entire region, and it reaffirms the foundations of Saudi policy and Saudi Arabia’s vision: balanced foreign relations, internationally and regionally, dictated by its national interests. In this context, the Saudi Crown Prince said that Saudi Arabia’s expected agreements with the United States will benefit both countries and enhance security in the region and across the globe.
These statements reflect the importance and depth of US-Saudi relations, a strategic partnership that includes cooperation on nuclear energy and military issues. Regardless of the US effort to expand the scope of the Abraham Accords, it seems that the relations between Saudi Arabia and the US are the crux of the matter. They go beyond Riyadh's relations with Tel Aviv, especially after the Democratic administration has reaffirmed Saudi Arabia's standing in the region and the world, its economic, political, and religious weight, and its importance for safeguarding US interests.
That has not prevented Riyadh from opening up to Beijing and Moscow, without compromising its strategic alliance with Washington, nor has it stymied Saudi efforts to find political solutions to the region's crises to fill the void left by other Arab players.
The Kingdom's foreign policy is clearly more open and pragmatic than it had been. On the one hand, it is trying to break away from the rigid framework of Arab alliances - a framework that has divided the region between the Axis of Resistance camp and the moderate camp for more than two decades. It is also shifting away from the confrontational approach it had taken to relations with international powers.
On the other hand, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, in his interview with CNN, used the same old rigid language as before. Raisi claimed that the United States and some European countries tried to exploit the killing of Mahsa Amini to undermine the Iranian government, implying that the events that had transpired in Iran were not tied to domestic issues but a hybrid Western war against Iran.
He also opined that Washington’s efforts to normalize relations between Israel and the Gulf states would not be successful, and said the release of US prisoners had been released on humanitarian grounds and that Iran has no intention of acquiring nuclear weapons, and so on and so forth.
Comparing the two interviews demonstrates the contrasts between the two pathways, to the world and particularly the region. One is a path toward new peace, openness, development, and vision; the other is confrontational, intransigent, fanatical, and backward-looking. These trajectories will not inevitably clash. Despite the emergence of two state models, each with its own approach in politics, security, economics, and social and cultural ways of doing things, there will be space for coexistence and cooperation between them on multiple levels. The fear is that most countries of the Arab Levant will take the second path, as Jordanian King Abdullah II had warned in 2004, when he expressed his concern about what he called a Shiite crescent that reaches Lebanon. The fate of these countries is concerning, especially Lebanon and Palestine.
According to the French presidential envoy to Lebanon, Jean-Yves Le Drian, the five countries cooperating on resolving issues in Lebanon are annoyed, even losing hope, and questioning whether it makes sense to keep financing Lebanon. That is, he warned that they are contemplating the idea of washing their hands of it and have no hope of improving the conditions of this country or those governing it. This reflects a seriousness of concerns regarding the stability and the future of Lebanon amid the hurdles of Middle Eastern politics and the two starkly contrasting approaches being adopted by different regional actors.
As for Palestine, its conditions are no better than Lebanon’s. Its leaders have done nothing to warrant any praise. They have failed to overcome the split between Hamas and its allies in Gaza and the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank, to say nothing about the disputes within the PA and the Palestinian Liberation Organization, and the emergence of armed groups that are affiliated with any of the main factions in several locations. All of this raises the specter of chaos, especially if the PA and PLO do not manage the succession of Mahmoud Abbas well.
The one bet we can make is protecting the West Bank from chaos. Indeed, Israel and Jordan will not allow for instability and violence on their borders. The success of this bet crucial to the future of this region and its inhabitants hinges on the outcome of the peace negotiations. In turn, these negotiations are tied to domestic developments in Israel, and whether it will be governed by the extreme right or an alliance of the parties coming together to confront what they perceive as its coup plot.

Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on October 02-03/2023
Armenian exodus from Nagorno-Karabakh ebbs as Azerbaijan moves to reaffirm control
Associated Press/October 2, 2023
The last bus carrying ethnic Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh left the region Monday, completing a grueling weeklong exodus of over 100,000 people — more than 80% of the residents — after Azerbaijan reclaimed the area in a lightning military operation. Gegham Stepanyan, Nagorno-Karabakh's human rights ombudsman, said that the bus that drove into Armenia carried 15 passengers with serious illnesses and mobility problems. He issued a call to share information about any other residents who want to leave but have trouble doing so. In a 24-hour military campaign that began on Sept. 19, the Azerbaijani army routed the region's undermanned and undergunned Armenian forces, forcing them to capitulate, and the separatist authorities agreed to dissolve their government by the year's end. While Baku has pledged to respect the rights of ethnic Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh, the bulk of them have hastily fled the region, fearing reprisals or losing the freedom to use their language and to practice their religion and cultural customs. The Armenian government said Monday that 100,514 of the region's estimated 120,000 residents have crossed into Armenia.
Armenian Health Minister Anahit Avanesyan said some people had died during a grueling and slow journey over the single mountain road into Armenia that took as long as 40 hours. Azerbaijani authorities moved quickly to reaffirm control of the region, arresting several former members of its separatist government and encouraging ethnic Azerbaijani residents who fled the area amid a separatist war three decades ago to start moving back. After six years of separatist fighting ended in 1994 following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Nagorno-Karabakh came under the control of ethnic Armenian forces, backed by Armenia. In a six-week war in 2020, Azerbaijan took back back parts of the region in the south Caucasus Mountains along with surrounding territory that Armenian forces had captured earlier. On Sunday, Azerbaijan's prosecutors issued an arrest warrant for ex-Nagorno-Karabakh leader Arayik Harutyunyan, who led the region before stepping down at the beginning of September. Azerbaijani police arrested one of Harutyunyan's former prime ministers, Ruben Vardanyan, on Wednesday as he tried to cross into Armenia. The Armenian authorities have accused Russian peacekeepers, who were deployed to Nagorno-Karabakh after the 2020 war, of standing idle and failing to stop the Azerbaijani onslaught. The accusations were rejected by Moscow, which argued that its troops didn't have a mandate to intervene in the fighting. The mutual accusations have further strained the relations between Armenia, and its longtime ally Russia, which has accused the Armenian government of a pro-Western tilt. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan alleged Thursday that the exodus of ethnic Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh amounted to "a direct act of ethnic cleansing and depriving people of their motherland."Azerbaijan's Foreign Ministry strongly rejected Pashinyan's accusations, arguing that the departure of Armenians was "their personal and individual decision and has nothing to do with forced relocation."A United Nations delegation arrived in Nagorno-Karabakh Sunday to monitor the situation. The mission is the organization's first to the region for three decades, due to the "very complicated and delicate geopolitical situation" there, U.N. spokesperson Stephane Dujarric told reporters Friday. Local officials dismissed the visit as a formality. Hunan Tadevosyan, spokesperson for Nagorno-Karabakh's emergency services, said the U.N. representatives had come too late and the number of civilians left in the regional capital of Stepanakert could be "counted on one hand.""We walked around the whole city but found no one. There is no general population left," he said.

Armenia reports 'casualties' after saying Azerbaijan opened fire
Agence France Presse/October 2, 2023
Armenia on Monday accused Azerbaijani forces of opening fire in a border region and causing an unspecified number of "casualties," following Baku's lightning takeover of Nagorno-Karabakh. "There are casualties on the Armenian side in the wake of the fire by the Azerbaijani armed forces," Armenia's defense ministry said. The ministry had earlier said that armed units of Azerbaijan targeted "a vehicle carrying food for the personnel of the Armenian combat outposts in the vicinity of Kut," a village in eastern Armenia.

Armenian separatist officials stay in Karabakh to oversee rescue search
Agence France Presse/October 2, 2023
Armenian separatist officials in Nagorno-Karabakh said Monday they will stay in the breakaway region following Azerbaijan's offensive to oversee rescue operations of victims from fighting and a deadly fuel depot blast. Armenia separatists say over 200 people were killed in fighting with Azerbaijan late last month and that a further 170 died when a fuel depot exploded as scores of civilians fled Karabakh over ethnic cleansing fears. After three decades of Armenian control, the separatist authorities have agreed to disarm, dissolve their government and reintegrate with Azerbaijan in the wake of Baku's one-day military operation in late September. The separatist government said president Samvel Shahramanyan "will stay in (Karabakh's main city of) Stepanakert with a group of officials until the search and rescue operations for the remainder of those killed and those missing ... are completed." "The government continues to focus on the issue of those citizens who want to move to the Republic of Armenia," it added. Separatist official Artak Beglaryan said "a few hundred" Armenian representatives remain in Karabkah. He said this included "officials, emergency service, volunteers, some persons with special needs."Nearly all of Karabakh's estimated 120,000 residents have fled the territory, which has been under Armenian control for three decades. Yerevan has accused Azerbaijan of conducting a campaign of "ethnic cleansing" to clear Karabakh of its Armenian population. But Baku has denied the claim and has publicly called on Armenian residents of the territory to stay and "reintegrate" into Azerbaijan where their rights would be guaranteed. Azerbaijan is now holding "re-integration" talks with separatist leaders while, at the same time detaining some senior figures from its former government and military command. Azerbaijan's Prosecutor General Kamran Aliyev said criminal investigations had been initiated into war crimes committed by 300 separatist officials. "I urge on those persons to surrender voluntarily," he told journalists on Sunday.

Second Israeli minister 'received warmly' in Saudi Arabia amid normalization push
Rina Bassist/Al-Monitor/October 2, 2023
Israeli Minister of Communications Shlomo Karhi and Likud lawmaker David Bitan, the head of the Knesset’s finance committee, landed in Saudi capital Riyadh on Monday to participate in the 2023 congress of the Universal Postal Union, as the US push to normalize relations between the two countries gains momentum. Karhi is now the second Israeli minister to publicly travel to the kingdom after last week's visit by Tourism Minister Haim Katz, and the third by an official Israeli delegation in the last three months. The fourth Extraordinary Congress of the Universal Postal Union is being held in Riyadh between Sunday and Thursday. Because of the Sukkoth Jewish holiday, Karhi arrived in Riyadh Monday evening and will only be staying there for three days.  Shortly after landing in Riyadh, his office told Al-Monitor that the minister was "received warmly" by the Saudi hosts. The office also said the visas for the Israeli delegation were accorded a few weeks ago, with the Saudis being helpful in the planning of the visit. The postal organization regroups 192 countries. According to his office, Karhi is hoping to meet in Riyadh with representatives of Arab states. Shortly before departing for Riyadh, Karhi met on Sept. 28 in Tel Aviv with Bahrain’s Ambassador to Israel Khalid Yousef Al-Jalahma to explore possibilities of bilateral cooperation. For the conference in Riyadh, a meeting has already been scheduled between Karhi and his Turkish counterpart Abdulkadir Uraloglu. Other meetings will be organized in Riyadh. Karhi's visit is only six days after Katz traveled to Riyadh on Sept. 26 for the annual meeting of the United Nations Tourism Organization. A statement issued by his office at the end of the visit quoted Katz as saying, "We broke a crack in the wall. In the last year, I worked to upgrade Israel's position within the United Nations Tourism Organization, and indeed Israel became an active partner with an official role." He added, "Efforts undertaken by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Israel's new status in the organization opened the gates of Saudi Arabia."
Katz further said that he also met at the conference with representatives of countries with whom Israel does not yet have official relations. "The curiosity about Israel and the desire to cooperate with it were evident in every conversation," he noted. An associate of Katz told Al-Monitor that the minister met with representatives of Bahrain and also with representatives of two states that have no diplomatic relations with Israel. Israeli Walla outlet reported on Sunday that the Israel Defense Forces are studying the range of ramifications for the country on a military level should a normalization deal with Saudi Arabia indeed be achieved. Former Israeli security chiefs had expressed on numerous occasions their concerns over Israel agreeing to Riyadh's achieving its own civilian nuclear program or for the United States to sign a defense treaty with Saudi Arabia. According to Walla, analysis is being done by several military branches, including intelligence, strategic planning, the Iran department, the air force and others.  Former Diaspora Affairs Minister and former IDF spokesperson Nachman Shai agrees that the visits of the two ministers reflect trilateral motivation by Israel, Saudi Arabia and the United States to advance toward normalization. Still, he is concerned about the ramifications of the normalization process for the Palestinians and, as a consequence, Israel. He expects that a normalization deal with Riyadh will include financial assistance but no real advancement on statehood. "Without advancement on statehood, which does not seem to be included in the present deal in the making, Israel will sooner or later stop being a Jewish democratic state," says Shai. "We cannot rule over millions of Palestinians without offering them human and civil rights."

Two Syrian soldiers injured in Israeli air attack on army sites in Deir al Zor
(Reuters)/Mon, October 2, 2023
Two soldiers were injured following an Israeli air attack on Syrian armed forces posts in the vicinity of Syria's eastern Deir al Zor province on Monday, Syrian state media said early on Tuesday, citing a military source. "At about 23:50 p.m. on Oct. 2, the Israeli enemy launched an air attack on some of our armed forces’ sites in the vicinity of Deir al Zor, and the aggression led to the injury of two soldiers and some material losses," the source said. There was no immediate comment from the Israeli army. Israel has for years been carrying out attacks against what it has described as Iran-linked targets in Syria, where Tehran's influence has grown since it began supporting President Bashar al-Assad in the civil war that started in 2011. Hundreds of thousands of people have died and millions have been made homeless since protests against Assad in 2011 developed into a civil war that drew in foreign powers and left Syria carved into zones of control.

Saudi soccer team refuses to play in Iran over busts of slain general, in potential diplomatic row
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP)/Mon, October 2, 2023
A Saudi soccer team refused to play a match in Iran on Monday because of the presence of busts of a slain Iranian general placed on the sidelines, Saudi state media reported. The Saudi Al Ittihad club was scheduled to play Iran's Sepahan in the the Asian Champions League, one of several matches made possible by a recent diplomatic rapprochement between the longtime Mideast rivals that has recently come under strain. The Saudi team did not take to the field because of busts of Gen. Qassem Soleimani, who commanded Iran's elite Quds Force before he was killed in a U.S. drone strike in neighboring Iraq in January 2020, and other political banners, Saudi Arabia's Al Ekhbariya TV reported. Soleimani was seen as playing a key role in arming, training and leading armed groups across the region, including fighters from the Houthi rebel group in Yemen. Saudi Arabia has been at war with the Iran-aligned rebels in Yemen since 2015. Three busts of Soleimani had been placed along the sidelines for the teams to walk past on their way out of the tunnel. After around 30 minutes of delay, the Saudi Arabian champion team, which had selected stars such as N’Golo Kante and Fabinho, signed from Chelsea and Liverpool respectively in the summer, left the Naghsh-e-Jahan Stadium where an estimated 60,000 fans were waiting. Videos circulating on social media appeared to show angry Iranian fans chanting that politics should be kept out of soccer. Iranian media reported that the busts of Soleimani had been placed there three years ago, and that Al Ittihad had practiced in the stadium on Sunday. Al Ekhbariya later ran footage of the Saudi team at the Isfahan airport, saying they were headed home.
The league said the Group C match was cancelled “due to unanticipated and unforeseen circumstances," without elaborating.
“The AFC reiterates its commitment towards ensuring the safety and security of the players, match officials, spectators, and all stakeholders involved. This matter will now be referred to the relevant committees,” it said in a statement. There was no official comment from Saudi Arabia or Iran. Iran's ruling clerics and their supporters hail Soleimani as a hero because of his leading role in military operations against the United States, the Islamic State group and other perceived enemies. Iran launched a barrage of missiles at U.S. bases in Iraq after he was killed, and has vowed to take further actions to avenge his death. As well as the insurgents in Yemen, Soleimani also aided Shiite militias in Iraq, the Lebanese Hezbollah, and fighters in Syria and the Palestinian territories. Western nations considered Soleimani a terrorist who sowed instability across the region.
The soccer tournament, which features 40 teams from around Asia, is the first since 2015 to see Saudi Arabian and Iranian teams play home and away games on each other’s soil. After diplomatic relations between Tehran and Riyadh were broken in 2016, games usually took place in neutral venues. Iranian fans had thrilled at the arrival of Cristiano Ronaldo and other soccer stars who have been drawn to Saudi clubs over the past year by lavish contracts. The two countries, which have long backed opposite sides in the region's conflicts, restored diplomatic relations earlier this year in an agreement brokered by China. That raised hopes that the devastating war in Yemen, which has been winding down in recent years, might finally come to an end. But tensions rose again last week after an attack blamed on the Houthi rebels killed four soldiers who were patrolling Saudi Arabia’s southern border with Yemen. The soldiers were from Bahrain, a close Saudi ally, and Bahrain blamed the Houthis, who have not publicly acknowledged the attack. Yemen’s war began in 2014 when the Houthis swept down from their northern stronghold and seized the capital, Sanaa, along with much of the north. A Saudi-led coalition intervened in 2015 to try to restore the internationally recognized government to power. The fighting soon devolved into a stalemated proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Iran, causing widespread hunger and misery in Yemen, which even before the conflict had been the Arab world’s poorest country. The war has killed more than 150,000 people, including fighters and civilians, and created one of the world’s worst humanitarian disasters, killing tens of thousands more. Last month, Saudi Arabia welcomed a Houthi delegation for peace talks, saying the negotiations had “positive results.” A U.N.-brokered cease-fire that took effect in April 2022 largely halted the violence, and the relative calm continued even after it expired last October.

Israeli veteran calls 1973 war a necessary 'slap in the face'
Agence France Presse/October 02/2023
A decorated Israeli veteran of tank battles on the Syrian front in the 1973 Arab-Israeli war, Avigdor Kahalani remembers the conflict, despite its heavy toll, as a "slap in the face" Israel needed. The twin attack by Egypt and Syria on October 6 caught Israel by surprise on the holiest day of the Jewish calendar -- Yom Kippur, the Day of Atonement -- when the nation comes to a virtual standstill. When the fighting erupted, Kahalani was a 29-year-old lieutenant-colonel commanding the 77th tank battalion in the Golan Heights that overlook Syria. He had only just returned to active duty after spending a year in hospital for follow-up treatment of severe burns he had suffered in the 1967 Arab-Israeli conflict.That war had seen Israel conquer the Golan Heights, Sinai, West Bank and east Jerusalem, humiliating its foes and dramatically redrawing the regional map -- but also creating what was later deemed a dangerous sense of complacency. As soon as the new war broke out on two fronts, Kahalani knew that Israeli forces were badly outnumbered, the 79-year-old recalled in an interview with AFP at his home in Tel Aviv. Syria had eight to 10 times more tanks than Israel and "their tanks were better than ours", he said. "All of a sudden we understood that it's a total war, we're losing territory," he recalled, adding that within 24 hours the Syrian forces "had conquered almost all of the Golan Heights"."There were moments when someone looking from the outside would have said: 'you have no chance'," he recalled. "But we won," he added with a wry smile.
'Critical moment' -
Within three days, the Israeli forces seemed on the verge of defeat, with Syrian forces directly threatening Israel's core territory. But, in a dramatic turn of events on the battlefield, Kahalani's unit and battalions of the 7th Armored Brigade were able to halt the Syrian momentum. "I had to lead the attack to reconquer the hills from where we could stop them," the former tank commander said. "And then came, on this line, around 160 tanks, and we were only 10 or 12 that had to stop them." After days of fierce fighting, the Syrians retreated. Historians say that Kahalani personally disabled 45 of the 150 enemy tanks his unit had taken out. "That was a critical moment, when you've strained every muscle in your body, after four days of combat with nearly no food, without sleep, with just a few ammunition rounds left in your tank. "You utilize every muscle, every thought, to be better than them, to win," said Kahalani, who is celebrated as a living legend in Israel and regularly speaks with young conscripts. In 1975, Kahalani received the Medal of Valour, Israel's highest military distinction. The citation honored his "wondrous leadership and personal heroism in a difficult and complicated battle, whose outcome changed the course of the Golan Heights campaign."
- 'No sacred cows' -
After the initial floundering, Israel, mobilizing all reserve units and supported by a U.S. airlift, was able to redress the battlefield situation. Israeli forces counter-attacked Egypt and crossed the Suez Canal, while in the north its soldiers retook the Golan. Fighting ended with a UN-validated ceasefire on October 25. Both sides suffered heavy losses in the three weeks of fighting. More than 2,600 Israeli soldiers were killed and more than 9,500 Arab troops were dead and missing. Many historians argue that Israel's 1967 victory had instilled a sense of invulnerability among its political and military leadership. So, despite the heavy losses, Kahalani, who lost a brother in the conflict, argues the 1973 war was a necessary wake-up call. Its effect was like "a very strong slap in the face", he said, arguing that it "brought our sanity back to a certain extent". "Had the reservists been mobilized two days earlier, it's likely that the war could have been avoided," he said. But members of then-prime minister Golda Meir's government were "hesitant," Kahalani noted, "even when they had all the indications that there was about to be a war."The shock of Israel's unpreparedness changed everything, he said of the deep soul-searching and high-profile resignations that followed.
"There were no more sacred cows."
- 'Moment of truth' -
A year after the war, a commission was set up to investigate Israel's level of military preparedness and its reaction to the outbreak of the war. The army's top commander David Elazar and the head of military intelligence Eli Zeira resigned. Meir, while not directly implicated by the commission, stepped down as prime minister in 1974. The war had enormous global repercussions. Arab oil producers doubled and then redoubled the price of their crude in a huge shock to the world economy, and Egypt would make peace with Israel in 1979, regaining the Sinai. Kahalani stayed in the army, reaching the rank of brigadier general, before resigning and joining the Labor Party in 1992. He later left to form a centrist party and served as public security minister in Benjamin Netanyahu's first government from 1996-1999. To Kahalani, the 1973 war was the trigger that pushed Israel to develop more sophisticated weapons, such as the Iron Dome missile defense system, and to achieve the military technological edge it enjoys today. But above all, the conflict served as a timely warning of Israel's "existential problem" which Kahalani argues is now embodied by arch-enemy Iran. Israel charges that Iran, whose leaders have called repeatedly for its destruction, is seeking to acquire nuclear weapons, a goal Tehran denies. "The moment of truth will come, I have no illusions," Kahalani said of a potential showdown with Iran. When that day comes, he said, he hopes that "Israel will have courageous leadership."

Turkey strikes PKK bases in Iraq after Ankara bombing
Agence France Presse/October 02/2023
Turkish jets launched air strikes inside Iraqi Kurdistan late Sunday, after a blast earlier the same day injured two police officers near the parliament building in Ankara. In the hours following the bombing, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had already vowed that "terrorists" would never achieve their aims.
The Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), listed as a terror group by Turkey and its Western allies, claimed responsibility for the blast. It has waged a deadly insurgency against Ankara for four decades. The district targeted in the bombing is home to several other ministries and the Turkish parliament, which reopened as planned in the afternoon with an address from Erdogan. "The villains who threaten the peace and security of citizens have not achieved their objectives and will never achieve them," Erdogan said. The interior ministry said two attackers had arrived in a commercial vehicle around 9:30 am (0630 GMT) in front of "the entrance gate of the General Directorate of Security of our Ministry of the Interior, and carried out a bomb attack." "One of the terrorists blew himself up," Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya told journalists outside the ministry. "The other was killed by a bullet to the head before he had a chance to blow himself up." Two police officers were lightly injured in the exchange of fire, but their lives were not in danger, he added. The Ankara prosecutor's office said it had opened an investigation and banned access to the area. Local media were asked to stop broadcasting images from the scene of the attack.
North Iraq strikes -
In a statement to the ANF news agency, which is close to the Kurdish movement, the PKK said that "a sacrificial action was carried out against the Turkish Interior Ministry". On Sunday evening, an official in Iraqi Kurdistan reported Turkish army planes bombing parts of the Bradost region and the village of Badran. Turkey's defence ministry acknowledged an "air operation" in northern Iraq to "neutralise the PKK". The ministry said that "20 targets used by terrorists" had been destroyed. In his opening remarks, Erdogan also slammed the European Union for stalling his country's membership bid, stating that Turkey "no longer expects anything from the European Union, which has kept us waiting at its door for 40 years". "We have kept all the promises we have made to the EU but they have kept almost none of theirs," he said, adding that he would not "tolerate any new demands or conditions" for his country to join the bloc.
Sweden NATO bid -
This session of Turkey's parliament must also validate Sweden's entry into the NATO alliance. Hungary and Turkey in July lifted their vetoes against Sweden's entry into the Atlantic alliance, but have been slow to ratify its membership. Erdogan indicated in July that ratification by the Turkish parliament would not take place before October, but it is expected to be approved during this parliamentary year. For months, Erdogan has been putting pressure on Sweden to take action against Koran desecrations that have strained relations between the two countries. Sweden's prime minister Ulf Kristersson was quick to pledge in a statement that his country "once again confirms its commitment to long-term cooperation with Turkey in the fight against terrorism". Numerous foreign leaders also voiced support for Turkey after the attack, with messages of support coming from Germany, the United Kingdom and the United States embassy in Ankara. The Turkish capital has been the scene of several attacks, particularly during the years 2015 and 2016 -- many claimed by the PKK or the Islamic State group. The PKK has waged an insurgency against the Turkish state since 1984 in a conflict that has claimed tens of thousands of lives. In October 2015 an attack in front of a central station in Ankara claimed by the Islamic State group killed 109 people. The most recent bomb attack in Turkey was in a shopping street in Istanbul in November 2022, where six were killed and 81 were injured.

Iraq Rejects Turkish Strikes in Kurdistan Region, Seeks Resolution
AFP/October 02/2023
Iraq rejects repeated Turkish air strikes or the presence of Turkish bases in its Kurdistan region and hopes to come to an agreement with Ankara to solve this problem, Iraqi President Abdul-Latif Rashid said in comments aired on Monday. Türkiye said on Sunday it carried out air strikes in northern Iraq that destroyed 20 targets belonging to the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) after the militant group said it orchestrated the first bomb attack in Ankara in years. Türkiye regards the PKK as a terrorist group and regularly carries out air strikes in northern Iraq, which has long been outside the direct control of the Baghdad government. Türkiye has also has sent commandos and set up military bases on Iraqi territory to support its offensives. "These violations are rejected by the Iraqi people, the (Kurdistan) region and all of Iraq's inhabitants," Rashid said in an interview with broadcaster Al-Hadath, a short clip of which was aired on Monday. It was not clear whether the interview was filmed before or after Sunday's Turkish air strikes. Rashid said such strikes sometimes killed civilians, including people visiting the region who "become victims of Turkish bombing."Türkiye has denied targeting civilians and says it works to avoid civilian casualties through its coordination with Iraqi authorities. Rashid is a member of the Iraqi Kurdish PUK party that has close ties to Iran and has criticized Türkiye’s strikes in Iraq's north. Rashid said Baghdad hoped to come to an agreement with Ankara to resolve the issue in a manner similar to a security agreement Iraq has inked with Iran to deal with Iranian Kurdish separatist groups in the Kurdistan region.

EU convenes 'historic meeting' of foreign ministers in Kyiv
Agence France Presse/October 02/2023
European Union foreign ministers on Monday gathered in the Ukrainian capital Kyiv for a historic summit outside the bloc's borders, the EU's foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said. The meeting took place as Kyiv pushes to join the EU in the future, amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine which is in its 20th month. "We are convening in a historic meeting of the EU foreign ministers here in Ukraine, candidate country and future member of the EU. We are here to express our solidarity and support to the Ukrainian people," Borrell said in a statement on social media. "Ukraine's future lies within the EU," he added. Ukraine hailed the summit. "This is a historic event because for the fist time ever the foreign affairs council is going to sit down outside of its current borders -- outside the borders of the European Union -- but within future borders of the European Union," Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba told reporters alongside Borrell. Dutch Foreign Minister Hanke Bruins Slot said it was "really important to meet here today to show our solidarity with Ukraine." In 2014, Ukrainians staged a pro-EU popular uprising overthrowing a pro-Moscow regime. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has pushed for fast-track membership due to the Russian invasion.

Kremlin Sees US Budget Setback for Ukraine as Harbinger of Western War Fatigue
Asharq Al-Awsat/October 02/2023
The Kremlin said on Monday it believed a decision by US Congress to pass a stopgap funding bill that omitted aid for Ukraine was a temporary setback for Kyiv, but forecast war fatigue in the West would grow and increasingly split opinion. Congress passed legislation on Saturday which extended funding for more than a month to avoid a government shutdown but did not include any aid for Kyiv, despite Washington's status as Ukraine's biggest financial and military backer. Asked about the US development, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said he thought the setback for Ukraine was "a temporary phenomenon" and that Washington would clearly continue what he called its direct involvement in the conflict. But Peskov, speaking after the party of Robert Fico won a weekend election in Slovakia pledging to end military aid to Ukraine, said that Moscow had long forecast that the West would grow increasingly weary of supporting Ukraine. "Obviously, this (the US setback) is a temporary phenomenon. America will continue its involvement in this conflict, in fact direct involvement," said Peskov. "But we have repeatedly said before that according to our forecasts fatigue from this conflict, fatigue from the completely absurd sponsorship of the Kyiv regime, will grow in various countries, including the United States. "And this fatigue will lead to the fragmentation of the political establishment and the growth of contradictions."The Kremlin has girded Russia for a long war in Ukraine, with big increases in defense spending and production. US President Joe Biden assured Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy during a visit to Washington last month that Washington would maintain strong support for Ukraine in the war despite opposition from some Republican lawmakers. After the Congressional funding bill was passed, Biden said on Sunday that Republicans had pledged to provide aid to Ukraine through a separate vote, adding: "We cannot under any circumstances allow America's support for Ukraine to be interrupted."

Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces Seize Military Base in Kordofan
Asharq Al-Awsat/October 02/2023
Chairman of Sudan’s Sovereign Council and army commander General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan announced that the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) were implicated in the violent dispersal of civil sit-ins at the General Command four years ago. Burhan’s statement created controversy in political circles and on social media as it was the first time he had addressed the incident that left hundreds of civilians dead and injured. Meanwhile, the RSF captured a city in the Kordofan region, announcing in a statement on the X platform that they had seized the Wad Ashana Garrison in North Kordofan State from an extremist militia linked to the army and loyalists from the ousted regime. The garrison was the last remaining border outpost with White Nile State. The RSF confiscated 12 fully equipped combat vehicles during the operation, including a 12-barrel Katyusha rocket launcher and numerous other weapons and ammunition. The capture of the Wad Ashana Garrison provides a further strategic advantage to the RSF. It opens the path to progress toward Kosti in the White Nile and other areas. “This achievement is instrumental in our mission to neutralize the former regime and its extremist affiliates,” it said.
Ending the war
Meanwhile, Burhan toured northern cities on Sunday, starting with Dongola, the capital of North State, where he checked on military operation casualties and patients undergoing kidney dialysis at the military hospital. He met military leaders, artillery officers, and state government officials, stressing that the armed forces are committed to ending the war peacefully or through continued conflict. He stated that the eruption of the war on April 15 was driven by the personal ambitions of certain individuals who want to seize control of the state – a possible reference to RSF commander Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo and his brother Abdul Rahim. Burhan highlighted serious RSF violations against citizens, including theft, property damage, widespread destruction, and destruction of state institutions and infrastructure. The chairman denounced the deceptive and false narrative promoted by the RSF, confirming its involvement in the dispersal of the sit-ins at the General Command and their oppression of the protesters. In June 2019, forces in military and civilian attire violently attacked thousands of protesters in front of the army headquarters in central Khartoum, resulting in numerous civilian casualties without intervention from the army to protect them. Resigned Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok had formed an independent committee to investigate the unrest, with several current high-ranking army officials and the commander of the RSF called to testify. However, the military coup, staged by the army and RSF on October 25, 2021, which overthrew the transitional government, hindered the probe.

EU Pledges Lasting Support at ‘Historic’ Kyiv Meeting
Asharq Al-Awsat/October 02/2023
The European Union signaled its long-term support for Ukraine on Monday as its foreign ministers convened in Kyiv for a historic first gathering beyond the bloc's borders. The meeting came as disagreements grow among EU members over support for Ukraine and as Kyiv's forces make limited gains in a high-stakes counteroffensive against Russian troops in the south and east of the country. "We are convening in a historic meeting of the EU foreign ministers here in Ukraine, candidate country and future member of the EU," the bloc's foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said in a statement. The purpose of the meeting was to "express our solidarity and support to the Ukrainian people", he said, acknowledging that the gathering "does not have the aim of reaching concrete conclusions and decisions". President Volodymyr Zelensky told the ministers that the length of the war, now in its twentieth month, will depend entirely on support Ukraine receives from its allies. "Our victory directly depends on our cooperation: the more strong and principled steps we take together, the sooner this war will end," Zelensky said in a statement. To bring about a speedy end to fighting, he urged the EU to expand its sanctions regime on Russia and Iran, which has supplied attack drones for Russian forces. And he also called for the "acceleration" of work by the bloc to direct "frozen Russian assets to finance the restoration of war-torn Ukraine." The EU's 27 nations have remained broadly united through the war on their support for Ukraine, hitting Russia with 11 rounds of sanctions and spending billions of euros on arms for Kyiv.
'Lasting support'
But there are growing fears of cracks appearing within the bloc as concern also rises over the support of key backer the United States, where a deal this weekend left out fresh funding for Ukraine due to opposition from hardline Republicans.  Hungary, Russia's closest ally in the EU, could now be joined by Slovakia as a potential block to more backing as populist Robert Fico pushes for power in Bratislava after winning elections this weekend. There have also been tensions between Kyiv and some of its most strident backers -- most notably Poland -- over the influx of Ukrainian grain onto their markets. France's top diplomat Catherine Colonna appeared to address the concerns, saying the meeting was a signal to Moscow of the bloc's "lasting support for Ukraine, until it can win". "It is also a message to Russia that it should not count on our fatigue. We will be there for a long time to come." The Kremlin, which anticipated a lightning-fast takeover of Ukraine, is counting on Western countries tiring in their support for Kyiv, and said Monday that fatigue over Ukraine "will grow".
'Winter protection plan'
Germany's Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock meanwhile called for a strategy to limit the fallout from a feared campaign of Russian strikes on Ukraine's energy grid in the coming months as temperatures drop. "Ukraine needs a winter protection plan of air defense, generators and a strengthening of the energy supply," she said. "We saw last winter the brutal way in which the Russian president wages this war." Ukrainian authorities say Russia has launched systemic aerial attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, a strategy that last year left millions without heating or water. Foreign ministers from Hungary, Poland and Latvia did not attend the summit, a Ukrainian government official told AFP on condition of anonymity. The Polish and Latvian representatives were ill, the official said. Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered troops into Ukraine in February 2022 and his army swept quickly through large swathes of the south and east of the country but were beaten back from the north. In June, Kyiv launched a long-awaited counteroffensive but has acknowledged slow progress as its forces encounter deep lines of heavily fortified Russian defenses. Ukraine's Interior Minister Igor Klymenko said Monday that Russia had shelled the city of Kherson in the south, critically wounding a civilian and two police. One of the policemen later died. Officials also said a civilian was killed by Russian fire in the nearly encircled town of Avdiivka in the war-battered Donetsk region in the east. Another civilian was killed in the eastern village of Torske.

Houthi attack on Bahrain's soldiers tests Yemen's fragile cease-fire, US defense pact
Jared Szuba/Al-Monitor/October 2, 2023
You're reading an excerpt from the latest edition of Security Briefing, Al-Monitor's weekly newsletter that breaks down the latest in Middle East defense and conflict news. To read the full edition, sign up here. Too close for comfort. Three Bahraini soldiers were killed and a number of others wounded in what Manama said was a Houthi drone attack near Saudi Arabia’s border with Yemen on Monday. It’s the first lethal cross-border strike publicly attributed to the Yemeni rebels in many months, threatening to disrupt a nationwide cease-fire that has largely held for more than a year despite having formally expired in October 2022. It’s also the first time Bahrain has lost forces to the Iran-backed Houthis since the 2015 Houthi missile strike in Marib. It’s too soon to say whether the incident marks the start of a trend, but officials in Washington say they are concerned about the potential for escalation. Less than a week after a Houthi delegation returned from talks in Riyadh aimed at ending the war, the triumphant Iran-backed rebels openly paraded their military hardware — including a F-5 Tiger fighter jet and ballistic missiles — in Sanaa on Monday to celebrate the ninth anniversary of their takeover in the capital.
While Saudi Arabia and Bahrain have kept many details of the strike under wraps, the Houthis’ message seems clear enough. But could it derail peace talks? “Unlikely, though it may be the intention,” tweeted Elisabeth Kendall, a senior research fellow in Arabic and Islamic studies at Pembroke College at Oxford University and a leading expert on Yemen’s conflict. “After all, several actors in the war contain spoilers keen to help prolong a Saudi-Houthi dimension to the conflict,” Kendall wrote.
A US military official familiar with the dynamic agreed. “There are plenty of incidents that don’t go reported,” the official told me on condition of anonymity. Still, killing Bahraini soldiers on Saudi territory is a significant development. The attack may well be seen in Gulf capitals as a test for the Biden administration’s commitment to their security against Iran and its proxies, coming as it did just weeks after Washington signed a new defense agreement with Bahrain that American officials hope to potentially extend to other Gulf countries as well. That deal stipulates US and Bahraini officials will "immediately meet at the most senior levels" to “develop and implement appropriate defense and deterrent responses” in case of “any external aggression” threatening either country’s sovereignty. The Houthi drone reportedly landed in Saudi Arabia, meaning it likely falls outside the jurisdiction of the Washington-Manama agreement. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin called Bahrain’s Crown Prince and Prime Minister Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa on Thursday to offer condolences for the loss of his soldiers nonetheless. Beyond the call, the US military had not taken any action — even deterrent in nature — in response to the attack, Pentagon deputy press secretary Sabrina Singh told reporters in response to a question posed by Al-Monitor on Thursday.
A US military official concurred, saying that it is “outside of the president’s guidance” for the military to directly intervene between the Saudi-led coalition and the Houthis. A spokesperson for the US military’s Middle East headquarters, US Central Command, offered a markedly different response: “As part of CENTCOM’s theater strategy to counter Violent Extremist Organizations (VEOs), US forces in the region are committed to detecting, degrading and disrupting all organizations hostile to the US and our partners,” a CENTCOM spokesperson told me via email. “CENTCOM does not release specific details on on-going counter-terrorist operations in the region,” the spokesperson wrote. Some strategic ambiguity may be of value to the United States here, but Gulf states are looking for tangible signs of commitment. It remains to be seen whether the attack may drive Manama into closer military coordination with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Cooperation Council states — and how it may impact ongoing US-Saudi Arabia talks over a defense agreement. For now, it seems, Riyadh continues to demand nothing less than an Article 5-style mutual security guarantee from Washington — however remote the chance of congressional approval — in exchange for normalization with Israel. “All sides have hammered out, I think, a basic framework for what we might be able to drive at,” White House National Security Council coordinator John Kirby told reporters Friday. “We’re still being a little careful about talking publicly about what the framework is going to look like and what every party is going to be expected to do,” Kirby said.

Does Ankara attack mark strategy shift for Turkey's PKK?
Amberin Zaman/Al-Monitor/October 2, 2023
The outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) carried out a suicide attack on the headquarters of Turkey’s national security directorate in Ankara Sunday. Does the violence mark a shift in the group’s strategy that can imperil the military partnership between its Syrian Kurdish franchise and the United States?
The issue gained fresh urgency as Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan renewed pledges hours after the strike to establish a security belt “beyond our southern borders” that would be “at least 30 kilometers deep.”Turkey insists that the Syrian Democratic Forces, the United States’ top ally in the fight against the Islamic State, poses a national security threat because its lead component known as the People’s Defense Units (YPG) is closely linked to the PKK. Armed with such justification, Turkey has launched multiple ground offensives against the SDF, which occupies large chunks of northeastern Syria that were under Kurdish control and notionally under US or Russian protection, and keeps threatening to do so again.
On Sunday, Turkey carried out a fresh wave of airstrikes on the PKK’s headquarters in the Qandil mountains separating Iran from Iraq, and separate drone strikes on suspected PKK operatives in Qamishli in northeast Syria.
The Ministry of Defense said the strikes in Syria “neutralized” Muzdelif Taskin, a PKK militant accused of planning an ambush that killed 12 Turkish soldiers in 2007.
Sunday's strikes in Iraq destroyed 20 targets, “consisting of caves, bunkers, shelters and depots used by the separatist terrorist organization," and also “neutralized” Kurdish militants, the ministry said. The ministry added that it would pursue operations in northern Iraq until “there is not a single terrorist left.”
First attack in Ankara since 2016
Until recently, the PKK refrained from carrying out high-profile attacks inside Turkey. It lacks the operational ability, given the ever-tightening grip of Turkey’s intelligence services, but also does not want to provide Ankara with ammunition in its argument that the United States should sever its ties with the SDF. At the same time, the PKK has been campaigning to get off the United States’ list of designated foreign terrorist organizations.
If an estimated 900 US Special Operation Forces were to pull out of Syria, the Kurdish-led entity known as the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria would likely collapse. The Biden administration has ruled out a withdrawal, saying the US-led coalition will continue to partner with the SDF against IS. However, behind closed doors, US officials increasingly question the merits of sustaining that alliance, especially at the cost of alienating Turkey, a NATO ally, whose value has shot up since the conflict in Ukraine.
The United States swiftly condemned Sunday’s attack in which one of the assailants blew himself up while the other was shot dead by police. Public fury grew upon news that the perpetrators had killed a veterinarian in the province of Kayseri in order to seize his car, which they drove to Ankara. The PKK claimed responsibility for the suicide attack in a statement saying that it was timed to coincide with the opening of the parliament and was carried out by a team "linked to the Immortals Battalion” group, one of several such armed formations used for urban operations.
The PKK suggested that it could have inflicted far greater damage but refrained from doing so and chose to send “the requisite message” and deliver “a serious warning” instead.
The PKK has not carried out any attacks inside the Turkish capital since 2016, when Turkish forces launched its first ground incursion against the group in northern Syria.
However, a Sept. 26 suicide attack by two women fighters on a Turkish police building in the southern province of Mersin might have served as warning for what was to come. Roj Girasun, a Kurdish researcher based in Diyarbakir, noted that it would not be surprising if the PKK were to continue to stage further such attacks. “The PKK is sending a loud and clear message that ‘we are still here,’” Girasun told Al-Monitor.
Turkey has squarely gained the upper hand in its 39-year-long fight against the PKK thanks to its domestically produced drones that have shot to global renown. Hundreds of PKK cadres have been killed in drone strikes in Iraq and Syria as Ankara seeks to eliminate the group’s new crop of potential leaders. The PKK’s founding leader, Abdullah Ocalan, has been in jail since 1999. Its top commanders, holed up in the remote mountains of Iraqi Kurdistan, are in their late sixties and early seventies and their left-wing revolutionary diatribes sound increasingly out of touch with younger generations of urbanized Kurds.
No prospects for peace
Hopes of a peaceful solution to the Kurdish question evaporated when Erdogan pulled the plug on direct talks between the government and Ocalan in 2015. A mutually observed two-and-a-half-year cease-fire collapsed, leading to the current spiral of escalation targeting the Kurdish political movement within Turkey as well. Selahattin Demirtas, the highly popular former chair of the largest pro-Kurdish party, the People’s Democratic Party, remains behind bars along with thousands of party officials and sympathizers convicted of thinly evidenced terror charges of membership in the PKK. They include democratically elected mayors who were stripped of their seats and replaced by government administrators in critical places such as the Kurds’ informal capital, Diyarbakir.The party, which ran as the Green Left Party in the May parliamentary and presidential elections in a bid to avert being shut down, saw its popularity drop by three percentage points. Debate has since been raging within Kurdish circles on whether to pursue Demirtas’ strategy of appealing to non-Kurdish voters, one that saw the party enter the parliament for the first time in 2015, or to revert to its narrowly Kurdish agenda, which fires up the base. That debate has been taking place as the PKK ponders its own future with some cadres questioning the merits of keeping the United States happy by refraining from violence inside Turkey while Washington's priority is to fix its relationship with Turkey. Washington continues to spurn diplomatic engagement of a kind that would legitimize the Syrian Kurdish body while keeping largely mum when Turkey targets the SDF, including its top commander Mazlum Kobane. Erdogan's victory at the polls shattered hopes for a resumption of the peace talks that would at a minimum give the militants some breathing space. Some in the PKK argue that unless it burnishes its military credentials, it will be perceived as increasingly weak and irrelevant. Besides, with the elections out of the way, it can no longer be accused of undermining the People’s Democratic Party and with Erdogan firmly opposed to the renewal of the peace process, there is more to gain than to lose. Historically, whenever the PKK inflicted high casualties on the Turkish military, the Turkish state reached out to the rebels in order to de-escalate. But as Ilhami Isik, a Kurdish commentator who advised the government during the latest round of peace talks, noted, thanks to Turkey’s increasingly sophisticated technology and spy network, conventional guerrilla tactics no longer have the same effect, leaving the PKK with few options other than urban attacks. These do not sit well with the bulk of Kurdish voters; the more civilians die, the more support for the rebels fades. And should Turkey be able to prove that any of the assailants crossed from Syria regardless of their affiliation, the harder it will become for Washington to maintain its public stance that the PKK and the YPG are different.

Latest English LCCC  analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on October 02-03/2023
Palestinians Steal Water From Palestinians, Then Blame Israel
Bassam Tawil/Gatestone Institute/October 2, 2023
"Yesterday there was an enforcement activity in the Idna area near Hebron during which four illegal water wells were sealed. The water wells, which were drilled in violation of the interim agreement [with the Palestinians], damage the natural water reserves and pose a pollution threat to the aquifer [the source of water supplied to both Palestinian and Jewish communities]. The enforcement action was carried out in accordance with the jurisdiction authority and established protocols." — Israeli authorities, July 27, 2023.
"Additionally, there were approximately 2,500 instances during those years in which Israeli authorities disconnected illegal connections to existing water infrastructure." — NGO Monitor, October 2021.
The "illegal connections" included wells and pipes in the West Bank to illegally divert the water elsewhere, thereby stealing water that Israel had intended for both Israelis and Palestinians.
In 2018, the Israel Water Authority identified 77 Palestinian illegal well-diggings in the West Bank. During the same year, Israeli authorities arrested 25 Palestinians on suspicion of stealing water and disconnected 1,457 illegal connections to water mains. Some Palestinians also reportedly drilled holes in water mains to divert water.
"Without this activity [by the Israeli authorities], the water supply would have been significantly disrupted," the Israeli Water Authority said. The following year, Israeli authorities discovered another 58 illegal water wells and confiscated ten well- drilling machines.
The Palestinians' actions are in violation of the "Water Agreement" that is part of the Israeli-Palestinian Interim Agreement ("Oslo II") of September 18, 1995 (Annex 3, Appendix 1, Article 40), which stipulates the manner in which the parties must act in the field of water in the West Bank. This is an international agreement that was not only signed by Israel and the Palestinians, but also witnessed by the US, Russia, the European Union, Norway, Jordan and Egypt. According to the Oslo II accord: "Each side shall take all necessary measures to prevent any harm, pollution, or deterioration of water quality of the water resources."
[T]he Israelis and Palestinians agreed in 1995 to establish a Joint Water Committee to deal with all water and sewage issues, including protection of water resources. The Palestinian Authority, however, decided to boycott the committee after the start of the Second Intifada in September 2000.
According to a 2017 report from Israel's State Comptroller, the Palestinian Authority prevented the committee from convening for seven years. The report noted that the reason for the Palestinian boycott was to hinder the development of water infrastructure for Israeli communities in the West Bank. Instead, the Palestinian boycott severely hindered the development of water infrastructure for the Palestinians and created a massive blockage of projects, including several waste-treatment facilities.
While Israel has fulfilled its obligations according to the "Water Agreement," the Palestinians have continuously breached the accord. Israel made available approximately 70 million cubic meters (MCM) a year of water to the Palestinians in the West Bank before they boycotted the Joint Water Committee, even though the agreement allocates a much smaller quantity of only 23.6 MCM/year for the West Bank.
The Palestinians have also failed to treat their sewage, which flows freely into streams flowing through the West Bank and Israel, thereby contaminating both the environment and the Mountain Aquifer for everyone.
The claim that Israel is depriving Palestinians of water in the West Bank is, regrettably, another libel designed to slander and vilify Israel. If anyone is depriving Palestinians of water, it is the Palestinians themselves, specifically those who are drilling illegal wells and polluting the environment. The recent sealing of four illegal wells near Hebron was part of an Israeli effort to stop Palestinian thieves from stealing water intended for Palestinians.
Those who are using the water issue to smear Israel would do well to open their eyes to the Palestinians' illegal actions, including water theft. Had the Palestinian Authority abided by the "Water Agreement," the Palestinians would be in a far better situation. Were Palestinians to stop stealing water, there would be no shortage of water supplied to any city, village or farm. Yet the Palestinians, who have chosen to violate their agreement with Israel, manage to blame Israel for their own illegal actions.
Those who are using the water issue to smear Israel would do well to open their eyes to the Palestinians' illegal actions, including water theft. Had the Palestinian Authority abided by the "Water Agreement," the Palestinians would be in a far better situation. Were Palestinians to stop stealing water, there would be no shortage of water supplied to any city, village or farm. Pictured: Israeli authorities destroy an illegal water well in Al-Nassariya, near Nablus, on September 8, 2011. (Photo by Jaafar Ashtiyeh/AFP via Getty Images)
Media outlets recently reported that Israeli forces had raided Palestinian farmland near the West Bank city of Hebron and poured concrete into the water sources to stop agricultural irrigation. The reports, however failed to mention that the Israeli move came as a result of illegal drilling, and theft and misuse of water resources by the Palestinians.
In response, the Israeli authorities announced:
"Yesterday there was an enforcement activity in the Idna area near Hebron during which four illegal water wells were sealed. The water wells, which were drilled in violation of the interim agreement [with the Palestinians], damage the natural water reserves and pose a pollution threat to the aquifer [the source of water supplied to both Palestinian and Jewish communities]. The enforcement action was carried out in accordance with the jurisdiction authority and established protocols."
In October 2021, NGO Monitor reported:
"According to 2019 and 2018 IWA reports, Israel identified nearly 140 instances of illegal well digging by Palestinians in the West Bank.
"Additionally, there were approximately 2,500 instances during those years in which Israeli authorities disconnected illegal connections to existing water infrastructure."
The "illegal connections" included wells and pipes in the West Bank to illegally divert the water elsewhere, thereby stealing water that Israel had intended for both Israelis and Palestinians.
In 2018, the Israel Water Authority identified 77 Palestinian illegal well-diggings in the West Bank. During the same year, Israeli authorities arrested 25 Palestinians on suspicion of stealing water and disconnected 1,457 illegal connections to water mains. Some Palestinians also reportedly drilled holes in water mains to divert water.
"Without this activity [by the Israeli authorities], the water supply would have been significantly disrupted," the Israeli Water Authority said. The following year, Israeli authorities discovered another 58 illegal water wells and confiscated ten well- drilling machines.
The Palestinians' actions are in violation of the "Water Agreement" that is part of the Israeli-Palestinian Interim Agreement ("Oslo II") of September 18, 1995 (Annex 3, Appendix 1, Article 40), which stipulates the manner in which the parties must act in the field of water in the West Bank. This is an international agreement that was not only signed by Israel and the Palestinians, but also witnessed by the US, Russia, the European Union, Norway, Jordan and Egypt. According to the Oslo II accord:
"Each side shall take all necessary measures to prevent any harm, pollution, or deterioration of water quality of the water resources."
To implement their undertakings, the Israelis and Palestinians agreed in 1995 to establish a Joint Water Committee to deal with all water and sewage issues, including protection of water resources. The Palestinian Authority, however, decided to boycott the committee after the start of the Second Intifada in September 2000.
According to a 2017 report from Israel's State Comptroller, the Palestinian Authority prevented the committee from convening for seven years. The report noted that the reason for the Palestinian boycott was to hinder the development of water infrastructure for Israeli communities in the West Bank. Instead, the Palestinian boycott severely hindered the development of water infrastructure for the Palestinians and created a massive blockage of projects, including several waste-treatment facilities.
According to NGO Monitor:
"The decision to hold environmental issues hostage to the political dispute between Israel and the Palestinians is damaging to the environment, and thus harms and endangers both Israelis and Palestinians, in the West Bank as well as in Israel. To do so not only undermines the Oslo framework of cooperation between the sides, but also politicizes an issue instead of prioritizing the health and well-being of civilians...
"[D]espite the Palestinian freeze on [Joint Water Committee] functions, Israel sought to approve Palestinian infrastructure projects outside of this framework, in order to address the acute environmental effects of the lack of sufficient waste and water infrastructure."
While Israel has fulfilled its obligations according to the "Water Agreement," the Palestinians have continuously breached the accord. Israel made available approximately 70 million cubic meters (MCM) a year of water to the Palestinians in the West Bank before they boycotted the Joint Water Committee, even though the agreement allocates a much smaller quantity of only 23.6 MCM/year for the West Bank.
Israel currently supplies the Palestinians with 52 MCM/year of water, which is far beyond its obligation of 31 MCM in the "Water Agreement". The Palestinians, however, in contravention of the agreement, continue to drill many unauthorized wells. By 2012, Israeli authorities spotted more than 300 unauthorized Palestinian wells.
The Palestinians have also failed to treat their sewage, which flows freely into streams flowing through the West Bank and Israel, thereby contaminating both the environment and the Mountain Aquifer for everyone.
The Palestinians are further violating the "Water Agreement" by failing to develop any new water sources, either through sewage treatment or desalination.
The claim that Israel is depriving Palestinians of water in the West Bank is, regrettably, another libel designed to slander and vilify Israel. If anyone is depriving Palestinians of water, it is the Palestinians themselves, specifically those who are drilling illegal wells and polluting the environment. The recent sealing of four illegal wells near Hebron was part of an Israeli effort to stop Palestinian thieves from stealing water intended for Palestinians.
Contrary to false Palestinian claims, the wells were not sealed because Israel wants to deprive them of water and force them from their land. The Palestinians should be thanking Israel for its effort to stop the water theft. Instead of boycotting Israel, which is trying to help them with the water issue, the Palestinians should be cooperating with Israel against the illegal drilling.
Those who are using the water issue to smear Israel would do well to open their eyes to the Palestinians' illegal actions, including water theft. Had the Palestinian Authority abided by the "Water Agreement," the Palestinians would be in a far better situation. Were Palestinians to stop stealing water, there would be no shortage of water supplied to any city, village or farm. Yet the Palestinians, who have chosen to violate their agreement with Israel, manage to blame Israel for their own illegal actions.
**Bassam Tawil is a Muslim Arab based in the Middle East.
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Iran and the Open Secret
Tariq Al-Homayed/Asharq Al-Awsat/October 02/2023
A recent report by Iran International and Semafor revealed how Iran, through a group of hired pro-Tehran experts, has infiltrated policy making circles in the United States. The experts are second generation Iranians living in the West. They managed to reach prestigious positions before joining the “Iran Experts Initiative” (IEI) to promote Tehran’s image and positions on global security issues. The investigation exposed the Iranian plan and the American – specifically Democratic – leniency with Iran. The experts were the liaison between the US and Iran when the nuclear negotiations kicked off. Their role was to bolster Iran’s image and drown out critical voices in Washington. I call this all an “open secret” because everyone is aware that the Iranian lobby is real and has been operating in Washington since the Obama years., but no one knew the details or had proof of this. Today, the investigative report, through thousands of emails, revealed the truth about the IEI and the role of the youth network in misleading the public by adopting the Iranian regime’s position. Saeed Khatibzadeh, then employee at the Iranian embassy in Berlin, came up with the idea of the think tank in early 2014. He suggested the formation of a group of “distinguished second-generation Iranians who have established affiliations with the leading international think-tanks and academic institutions, mainly in Europe and the US.”
He added that through their political support, Iran could boost its international position.
Khatibzadeh wrote to Mostafa Zahrani, the head of the IPIS think tank in Tehran, about the network. “I attached here for your review only a few of the most significant works some of our friends published,” Khatibzadeh wrote. “We were in constant contact and worked vigorously around the clock. Some friends performed as resourceful as a media outlet all by themselves,” he added. The truth is they weren’t just a media outlet, but more of an actual Iranian lobby. Some of the experts denied their involvement in the network, even if their excuses were lame compared to the gravity of the situation, which has snowballed in Washington after the report was published. The work of the lobby is glaring and as clear as day. The question now is, has the network succeeded? Has the IEI succeeded in deceiving American and European officials? I believe the Democrats, especially those affiliated to Obama, wanted to be deceived.
The best evidence is that some of the members of the IEI worked with the US special envoy on Iran Robert Malley, who is being investigated by Washington for reasons that have yet to be made clear. Everyone who has followed American media since the Obama years, or visited Washington at the time and spoken with Iranian-American experts would be aware that the Iranian lobby in Washington is real. That’s not all. Some choose to overlook the lobby and even support it. So, we are confronted with an open secret. We must now examine the details because as they say, “the devil is in the details” and I believe the issue is much greater and more dangerous than this.

Strengthening diplomatic ties with Saudi Arabia in a changing world
Michael Kindsgrab/Arab News/October 02, 2023
On the occasion of German Unity Day, I find myself reflecting on the significance of this day, particularly in the context of our diplomatic relations with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. It is the first national holiday I celebrate during my time in Saudi Arabia, and it is a privilege to celebrate it at a time when our two nations are growing closer together, in a world where the need for security and stability is increasing.
On our national day, Oct. 3, we celebrate German reunification. After the end of the Second World War, a war — and this is something we will never forget — started by Nazi Germany and accompanied by unprecedented atrocities, war crimes and crimes against humanity, our country was divided into East and West, separated by the infamous “wall,” a guarded concrete barrier.
During the decades that followed, the wall stood as a symbol of the Cold War, a global rivalry between the “West,” led by the US and the “East,” led by the Soviet Union, dominated by its biggest member, Russia. In November 1989, the wall fell and on Oct. 3, 1990, Germany was officially reunified. The date stands for one of the happiest days in our nation’s history.
Like the symbol of the Cold War, the Cold War itself came to an end, and with it, or so it seemed at that time, the threat of another war on the European continent with global repercussions. The developments were a historical milestone, met with joy and relief in all corners of the world.
Today, war has returned to the European continent through the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine. The invasion shook Germany and its European friends to the core. It seemed like a bad dream from the times of the Cold War had become reality in the 21st century — a century of an increasingly globalized, multipolar world. The Russian war of aggression has an effect on the whole world’s stability and security, be it through increased gas prices or a shortage of grain.
Stability and security are central to our foreign policy. This is why Germany published its first national security strategy this year. The strategy recognizes the changing global landscape caused by the Russian war of aggression, the rise of multipolarity and a growing systemic rivalry in international relations. Within this framework, the concept of our security encompasses multiple dimensions.
For Germany, security means a close partnership with friends who, together with us, advocate for an international order based on the UN Charter. In this regard, Saudi Arabia stands as a key partner.
First of all, we will always defend our borders and those of our allies against external threats, and we will invest whatever it takes to deter and, if necessary, fight any potential aggressor. But security also involves the diversification of our energy sources to ensure resilience. Security means addressing the threat posed by the climate crisis through the reduction of greenhouse gas emission and at the same time counteracting the current effects with adaptation strategies.
For Germany, security means a close partnership with friends who, together with us, advocate for an international order based on the UN Charter. In this regard, Saudi Arabia stands as a key partner.
Our partnership with Saudi Arabia has flourished, as demonstrated by the numerous high-level visits between our countries last year. Both Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock have been to Saudi Arabia since September 2022, and numerous high-level meetings in between have reaffirmed our commitment to strengthening relations.
Esteemed Saudi ministers, including Khalid Al-Falih, Ahmed Al-Khateeb, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, Prince Badr bin Abdullah bin Farhan and Bandar Al-Khorayef, have reciprocated this commitment through visits to Germany, highlighting their keen interest in enhancing collaboration.
Germany’s commitment to global security and stability persists through our role in international crisis management. Saudi Arabia has played a pivotal role in the efforts to solve the crisis in Sudan and provided a safe haven for German citizens and citizens from around the world. We are sincerely grateful for this support.
The climate crisis does not end at our countries’ borders. Saudi Arabia and Germany have a shared interest in security and stability in the field of energy, in particular in hydrogen technology. As we anticipate a substantial demand for clean hydrogen imports by 2030, Saudi Arabia plays an important role in this endeavor, with German companies actively engaged in various energy projects within the Kingdom.
By celebrating our National Day, we celebrate German unity, a historical event that would not have been possible without the support of our Western allies and also the former Soviet Union. Today, we celebrate our National Day in a world that is undergoing fundamental change. In a world where, in order to overcome global challenges, every country needs allies and key partners who share the goal of a peaceful, secure and prosperous world.
I look forward to working with our Saudi friends and partners on a positive agenda under which our relationship will achieve its potential to contribute to our shared goals.
• Michael Kindsgrab is Germany’s ambassador to Saudi Arabia.

Decline of US political debate should worry the world
Chris Doyle/Arab News/October 02, 2023
With just over a year to go until the 2024 US presidential election, the country’s primaries should be the place to observe the sharpening of political debate in the world’s leading superpower. It is the toughest testing ground for political talent, as candidates get exposed to the furnace of live televised grillings. It should sort the political grown-ups from the juveniles.
Yet this was not the story of last week’s second Republican debate, or the first in Milwaukee last month. The Republican candidates should be put through the wringer, with the best candidate rising to the top. Instead, they are all sinking faster than the Titanic.
It says something that the winner of the debate was the man who was not even at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, California. Yes, Donald Trump once again ducked the chance to debate his rivals or, if you are skeptical, give them a chance to challenge him directly. He was missing, but he was also very much in action. He will not bother with November’s debate in Miami either, but be assured he will be in the headlines.
Trump’s message was clear: The seven also-rans can tear chunks out of each other and bicker away, while he was in Michigan reaching out to blue-collar workers. Trump has started his presidential campaign and is skipping the primaries as a foregone conclusion. He is wondering out loud why he is not just reanointed as the chosen one. He has a point. The polls show that he has a lead of more than 40 points.
Not many viewers would have felt any candidate left them smarter. They all just spoke over each other in an unintelligible swell of noise
The former president is not bothering to reach out to the Republican base, as is usual in the primary season. Typically, pre-nomination candidates focus on core Republican issues such as abortion and immigration. Such is Trump’s confidence, he is skipping that phase and is instead focusing on reaching out to independents.
The counterarguments would include pointing out that Trump is facing numerous indictments and legal battles. In all, he is the defendant in four cases and he faces 91 felony charges. He also failed in 2020 and may struggle to win over those who have never voted for him before.
Trump is much derided, but he is a very street-smart campaigner. He sucks the oxygen of publicity away from rivals by even making a virtue of his absence. The story always reverts to him. Every time one of the candidates pointed out Trump was not there, viewers just started thinking, “who can blame him?” I doubt Chris Christie’s rehearsed label of Trump as “Donald Duck” will catch on. These candidates are fishing for votes in a pool well stocked with Trump backers.
Vivek Ramaswamy, the founder of a biotech company, has clearly wound up all the other candidates, who can barely conceal their loathing for him. They did not appreciate being labeled as having been “bought and paid for,” given, as Tim Scott stated, Ramaswamy himself was “just in business with the Chinese Communist Party and the same people who funded Hunter Biden.”
It was Ramaswamy who best summed up the quality of the debate when he said: “Thank you for speaking while I’m interrupting.” Nikki Haley, the former US ambassador to the UN under Trump, best summed up Ramaswamy when she quipped: “Honestly, every time I hear you, I feel a little bit dumber for what you say.” Not many viewers would have felt any candidate left them smarter. They all just spoke over each other in an unintelligible swell of noise.
It is not clear anyone emerged from the pack. Ron DeSantis, the Florida governor, did little to stem his slide in the polls. Did Haley just about edge it? Maybe. But a single anti-Trump candidate did not come to the fore — someone who could unite the part of the Republican party, largely the traditional wing, that objects to Trump. Those less critical of Trump from the podium may well harbor ambitions of becoming his running mate, but he may well look beyond them all.
Everyone should be worried about the lack of genuine commitment to democracy and the rule of law on display
What makes all this worse is that the Democrats are not in a healthy position either. Whatever one’s views on the record of President Joe Biden, voters are skeptical about his age and whether he should run for another term. The polls have him nine to 10 points back in a contest with Trump. If a second-term Biden administration is unpalatable, where are the serious Democrat challengers? Where are the Democrats’ big ideas?
What should the outside world make of this? Above all, everyone should be worried about the lack of genuine commitment to democracy and the rule of law on display. The denigration and dehumanization of immigrants should also be seen as chilling and an inspiration to the far right everywhere.
International affairs have scarcely made an appearance in the two debates. Yet, one clear dividing line in the Republican ranks is what to do on the issue of Ukraine. The isolationist streak that Trump has personified wants to cut down support for Kyiv. DeSantis and Ramaswamy are in favor of this approach. A more traditional approach of backing Ukraine was adopted by Haley, Mike Pence and Christie. The candidates attacked Ramaswamy for his business ties with China, highlighting the way Trump has made an anti-China position a given in Republican circles.
Climate change should be a major concern to many. Ramaswamy considers the climate change agenda a “hoax.” Haley stood out for acknowledging that it is real. Other candidates tended to duck the issue entirely.
Nobody on the outside should be happy to see this decline in the standard of American political debate. The world has plenty of grave challenges ahead. A top-level, forward-looking American leadership is required. Fresh political plans, strategies and ideas should be developed and debated. But where are the big ideas? Worse, where are they going to come from?
The two Republican debates thus far have been a festival of boredom, lame jokes and third-rate candidates. Meanwhile, the federal government narrowly avoided another shutdown. Bipartisan relations remain Siberian. This is not the time to be having a shutdown about the debate over the future of America and the world.
**Chris Doyle is director of the London-based Council for Arab-British Understanding. He has worked with the council since 1993 after graduating with a first-class honors degree in Arabic and Islamic Studies at Exeter University. He has organized and accompanied numerous British parliamentary delegations to Arab countries. X: @Doylech