Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on September 30-October 01/2023
Western countries are watching with a dead conscious a new massacre committed against the Armenian people in Nagorno-Karabakh/Elias Bejjani/September30, 2023
Global perspectives: The French-Saudi dynamic and Lebanon's political landscape
Report: Doha offers Lebanon $1B and incentives to Franjieh to withdraw
Report: US urges election not dialogue, says Le Drian's Oct. visit should be last
Will Lebanon have a new president in October?
Report: Franjieh mulls withdrawal, Shiite Duo eyes Bayssari nomination
Lebanon's Environment Minister warns of escalating fire danger in multiple Lebanese regions
Confronting the 'giant machine': Sovereign Front for Lebanon marks second anniversary
Government departments face power cut-off over unpaid bills
Lebanon's Changing Climate: Adapting to Extremes and Global Concerns
Lebanon's logistical challenge: How Lebanese citizens navigate the complex issue of Syrian refugees
Strategic Crossroads: Assessing Lebanon's Role in Evolving Maritime Routes
Makhzoumi: All solidarity with the Republic of Pakistan
Lebanese presidency does not seem imminent despite many active initiatives, deems Abu Faour
PSP condemns today's attack on people in Central Beirut
Syrian presence threatens Lebanon’s demographics," warns Mawlawi
Bassil before economic bodies in Central Bekaa, Zahle: With administrative decentralization, each region will be able to assume its economic role &...
Foreign Ministry affirms that Lebanon stands by Pakistan in confronting terrorism
Confrontations between “Freedom March” participants and a group of young men at Martrys', Riad al-Solh Squares
Army units raid displaced Syrians camp, arrests wanted individuals in Choueifat, Ghobeiry & Sabra areas for committing various crimes
Geagea on 2nd anniversary of the launch of “Sovereign Front”: The resistance clings to the neck of the people and the state
Mortada at the opening of the Soho International Conference: No way out of the severe political impasse except through dialogue

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on September 30-October 01/2023
Armenia Asks World Court to Order Azerbaijan to Withdraw Troops from Nagorno-Karabakh
Armenia's Government: Almost All of Nagorno-Karabakh's People Have Left
Karabakh Armenians leave for Armenia
Azerbaijan Will Allow UN Experts To Visit Karabakh 'In A Matter Of Days,’ Presidential Office Says
Israeli Soldiers Kill Palestinian Man in West Bank
Türkiye Confirms Readiness to Resume Normalization Talks with Syria
Pentagon fears artificial intelligence will get out of control
US claims Israel-Saudi moving towards 'framework' for normalisation deal
UN Security Council Condemns Houthi Attack on Southern Saudi Arabia
Saudi Finance Minister Participates in Berlin Global Dialogue 2023
French ambassador to Niger returns to Paris amid diplomatic tensions
Burkina Faso transitional president announces 'partial amendment' to the constitution, says elections not a 'priority'
US warns of large Serbian military build-up near Kosovo
US government hours from shutdown, funding chaos
Slovakia election pits pro-Russia ex-PM against liberal pro-West newcomer
US warns of large Serbian military build-up near Kosovo
83% of residents of the new regions apply for Russian citizenship

Titles For The Latest English LCCC  analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on September 30-October 01/2023
F-16s for Ukraine, Just as Soon as Belgium Wakes Up/Drieu Godefridi/Gatestone Institute./September30/2023
Danger to Western Lives Takes Off, Thanks to the Biden Administration/Majid Rafizadeh/Gatestone Institute./September30/2023
This Week in History: Christians Take the Offensive against Islamic Tyranny/Raymond Ibrahim./September30/2023
Nagorno-Karabakh: The Broader Implications/MARC PIERINI/Carnegie./September30/2023
A New Armenian Trauma Unfolds/ARAZ BEDROSS/Carnegie./September30/2023
How to Stop Iraqi Kurdistan’s “Bleeding”/Bilal Wahab/The Washington Institute/September 30/2023
Yemen’s “Southern Hezbollah” Celebrates Coup Anniversary in Deadly Fashion/Michael Knights, Farzin Nadimi/The Washington Institute/September 30/2023

Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on September 30-October 01/2023
Western countries are watching with a dead conscious a new massacre committed against the Armenian people in Nagorno-Karabakh
Elias Bejjani/September30, 2023
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/122696/122696/
What a disgrace, and hypocrisy is unfolding.
The Western countries that laud civilization, Freedom, human right, democracy and take pride in raising the banners of the international covenant of human rights, have lost everything that is humanity, conscience, self respect, credibility and morals.
These countries, due to their secularism, selfishness, atheism, ingratitude, and regression to the original sinful human nature, have become completely estranged from all their values, history, national and humanitarian obligations and commitments.
Yes, unfortunately, all these countries, cloaked satanic competition, corrupt and secularism, have sunk up to their ears in everything that sadistic and commercial priorities.  They have abandoned their previous conception and assessment of everything that is human, faith-filled  and of eternal values.
These countries, led by Russia are stupidly, dead in their conscience, faith, and hope, are watching a new massacre of a horrific ethnic cleansing committed by Azerbaijan and its ally, Turkey, against the Armenian people in Nagorno-Karabakh
The Armenian people in Nagorno-Karabakh are killed, abused, tortured, displaced from the land of their ancestors, uprooted from their history roots by force, and ethnically cleansed.
Meanwhile Russia in particular, and the countries of the West in general, without a single exception, are not lifting a finger, but rather blessing the massacre, allying themselves with its perpetrators, and cheering for them.
What a shame, these satanic secular regimes are worshiping earthly riches, abandoning all values, principles, human rights and the Armenians' destiny of freedom.
What is sad and painful at the same time, is that the Armenian people, whom the Turkish Ottoman Empire exposed to the most horrific crime in history between the years 1914-1915, have once again been left prey to the predatory human monsters represented by Azerbaijan's dictator Ilham Aliyevnt, and his Islamic fundamentalist Turkish ally, President Erdogan, who are both drowning in the mire of hatred, fanaticism, historical hatred and deeply rooted sickening grudges.
What is totally condemned is this ungrateful West has allowed the Azerbaijan’s corrupt, blustering dictator Ilham Aliyev, and his ally, the traitorous and hateful Turkish, President Erdogan, to repeat the brutal massacres committed by their Ottoman ancestors against the Armenian people.
In conclusion, the West has blessed Aliyev's - Erdogan's brutality, and their thirst to shed Armenian blood, despite the fact that Turkey is a member of the NATO alliance, that is supposed to protect peace, freedoms and democracy.
It remains that the West's satanic and inhumane shameful silence in regards to the massacres  perpetrated against the Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh is fully denounced and condemned
Background
The Armenian Genocide, Armenian Massacres, or Armenian Holocaust (Armenian: Հայոց Ցեղասպանութիւն) (Turkish: Ermeni Soykırımı) was the systematic mass killing and expulsion of Armenians that took place in the territories of the Ottoman Empire by the government of the Society of Union and Progress during World War I. Although separate massacres have been committed against Armenians since the middle of the year 1914 AD, it is agreed that the date of the beginning of the genocide is April 24, 1915 AD, which is the day on which the Ottoman authorities gathered hundreds of Armenian intellectuals and notables, arrested them, and deported them from Constantinople (Istanbul today) to the province of Ankara, where they were killed. Most of them died.

Global perspectives: The French-Saudi dynamic and Lebanon's political landscape
LBCI/September30, 2023
The French presidential envoy, Jean-Yves Le Drian, succeeded in reproducing Parisian roles in Lebanon as soon as he removed them from the equation of the presidency of the leader of the Marada Movement, Sleiman Frangieh.
This article was originally published in and translated from the Lebanese newspaper al-Liwaa. He also succeeded in attracting Saudi interest after the "coldness" with which Riyadh dealt with it due to its refusal to make the presidential election an occasion to reanimate the system's "self-renewal" after the stagnation it suffered in the last three years. There is no doubt that Le Drian's visit to Riyadh, where he met with Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud, along with the Adviser at the Royal Court Nizar al-Alula, who is responsible for the Lebanese file, and Ambassador Walid al-Bukhari, who left Beirut hastily because of this arranged meeting, constituted a revival of his mission, just as it indicated Saudi interest in the French developments that the presidential envoy emphasized as soon as he "mourned" Frangieh's choice, calling for sharpening "ambitions" for consensus on a third option. Thus, the French envoy refined the ambiguity and weakness that afflicted his mission and the French endeavor in general, which began inadequately as soon as the crisis cell at the Elysee Palace believed that supporting Hezbollah and its circles was the only way to elect the president. Moreover, the Quintet Committee, having aligned itself with Riyadh's opinion, was behind the specifications, consisting of a president free from financial and political corruption, completely cutting ties with the system, its past, and its practices. This applies initially to the Prime Minister and later to the rest of the institutions' heads when the time for change comes.
The updated French maneuver and the realistic approach that Le Drian has adopted have the potential to rekindle Riyadh's interest in Lebanon. He had informed some of those he met on his recent visit to Beirut that he is confident that there is no presidential solution except by consensus on a candidate who enjoys the maximum Lebanese and international acceptance. Consequently, it is necessary to reject both options of Frangieh, and the former minister, Jihad Azour.
However, he remained cautious in presenting any name, leaving the matter to the Lebanese consensus. This French development has halted Saudi diplomacy. Paris has sensed Riyadh's interest in Le Drian's visit.
It has also started talking about the possibility of Saudi re-engagement after a withdrawal period. France's goal is no secret, which it repeatedly failed to achieve due to Riyadh's rejection of the previous French approach.
Based on this reality, Le Drian's return in early October is awaited to determine the extent to which France will go. It does not seem that his mission has a specified time frame, contrary to what has been rumored, especially after President Emmanuel Macron
renewed his confidence in him, meaning his commitment to his envoy's vision rather than the approach (supporting Hezbollah and endorsing Frangieh), which the presidential advisor, Patrick Durel, followed for many months without achieving the desired results.
This French-Saudi development preceded the rush of the US administration through several officials, the latest of whom is the regional spokesperson for the US State Department, Samuel Werberg, to deny any US-French disagreement on the Lebanese issue while reaffirming the continuation of the work of the Quintet Committee in the same direction. This American behavior can be seen as support for Le Drian's updated mission and perhaps as a way to contain Qatari initiatives and reduce Doha's pressure after sensing the pressure it is exerting on Lebanese officials and leaders to follow the options it endorses. It is now known that the Qatari envoy, Jassim bin Fahd Al-Thani, who is preparing for a visit by State Minister of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Mohammed bin Abdulaziz Al-Khulaifi in the first half of October, has mixed the views of those he met recently, including MP Neemat Frem, Army Commander General Joseph Aoun, and Acting Director-General of the General Security, Brigadier General Elias al-Baysari. He was keen to say that Doha does not seek to impose a name but accumulates opinions and positions. At the same time, it supports any presidential choice that garners the greatest Lebanese consensus. All of this means that the start of the Lebanese solution cannot be isolated from external factors, and the two most prominent factors are the dialogue between Washington and Tehran, which is in full swing, and the Saudi-Iranian detente, which currently seems to be stumbling. If the situation in Yemen deteriorates again after a relative breakthrough due to the start of dialogue in Riyadh between the Houthis and the Saudi leadership, there is a fear that this escalation will affect the Saudi-Iranian rapprochement, and then Lebanon will bear the consequences.

Report: Doha offers Lebanon $1B and incentives to Franjieh to withdraw
Naharnet/September30, 2023
A Qatari envoy visiting Lebanon has said that his country is willing to immediately deposit $1 billion in Lebanon’s central bank once a new president is elected, al-Akhbar newspaper reported on Saturday. Shiite Duo sources meanwhile told al-Liwaa newspaper that Hezbollah will definitely not ask Marada Movement chief Suleiman Franjieh to withdraw from the presidential race. But the sources added that Hezbollah would agree to discuss other choices if the Qataris convince Franjieh to withdraw. The daily added that Qatar has reduced the number of its proposed candidates to two -- Joseph Aoun and Elias Bayssari -- while offering Marada to have two ministers in the new government and financial aid for the institutions and associations that it runs, in addition to working on lifting sanctions off ex-minister Youssef Fenianos. "But Marada's response was rejection and asserting that Suleiman Franjieh's withdrawal from the electoral race is impossible," the newspaper added.

Report: US urges election not dialogue, says Le Drian's Oct. visit should be last
Naharnet /September30, 2023
U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Barbara Leaf told the French representative at the latest New York meeting of the five-nation group that the objective in Lebanon is not dialogue but rather the election of a president, a media report said.
"France's representative responded by saying that (French Special Presidential Envoy for Lebanon Jean-Yves) Le Drian would visit Lebanon in early October only to be interrupted again by the U.S. envoy, who said that this visit in October must be the last," the Nidaa al-Watan newspaper reported on Saturday. Leaf also said, according to the daily, that her country cannot continue its assistance to the Lebanese Army in the absence of a comprehensive political solution.

Will Lebanon have a new president in October?
Naharnet/September30, 2023
Despite the negative media reports, the door to a presidential settlement has been opened and what Speaker Nabih Berri "has told to his visitors reflects this," a media report said. Political sources meanwhile told al-Liwaa newspaper that the new president will perhaps be elected in mid-October based on information obtained by Berri from Qatari envoy Abou Fahad Jassem Al-Thani. “Several political leaders have said this in their meetings and things are nearing the end,” the daily added, noting that sources informed on the Qatari envoy’s talks have said that the five-nation group for Lebanon might hold a meeting at the level of foreign ministers.

Report: Franjieh mulls withdrawal, Shiite Duo eyes Bayssari nomination
Naharnet/September30, 2023
Qatar is carrying out intensive contacts with Marada Movement chief Suleiman Franjieh to convince him to withdraw from the presidential race prior to the arrival in Lebanon of Qatari State Minister Mohammed bin Abdul Aziz al-Khulaifi, a media report said, citing “credible” sources. Franjieh’s withdrawal would open the door to “serious negotiations between the Qataris and the National Duo (Hezbollah and Amal) over a third candidate,” the sources told al-Liwaa newspaper in remarks published Saturday. Sources close to Franjieh meanwhile said that he has promised the Qataris that he would consult with his allies over the choice of withdrawing from the race. The Shiite Duo is meanwhile “leaning towards the choice of mulling the nomination of Maj. Gen. Elias Bayssari, who (for the Shiite Duo) is in the lead over all the other names contained in the list proposed by Qatar,” al-Liwaa said. Sources involved in the negotiations meanwhile told the daily that “the election of a president might be imminent should the Qataris reach an agreement with Franjieh.”

Lebanon's Environment Minister warns of escalating fire danger in multiple Lebanese regions
LBCI/September30, 2023
Caretaker Environment Minister, Nasser Yassin, warned of the danger of fires, writing on the X platform that there is a significant increase in the fire danger index, especially in the regions of Akkar, Dennieh, Koura, Zgharta, North Bekaa, West Bekaa, Rashaya, Bint Jbeil, and Hasbaya. He stated that the dry weather and decreased humidity levels make the situation conducive to an increased risk of fires and the possibility of rapid fire spread, as witnessed on Friday in Iqlim al-Kharrub, Dennieh, Akkar, Hasbaya, and other areas.
He suggested some essential steps and guidelines that citizens should consider to prevent fires, which are:
-Do not light fires outdoors for any reason, including burning agricultural waste and dry grass.
-Dispose of cigarettes, charcoal, or other flammable materials responsibly, cleanly, and safely.
-Immediately report any smoke or fire to the civil defense and relevant authorities.

Confronting the 'giant machine': Sovereign Front for Lebanon marks second anniversary
LBCI/September30, 2023
The "Sovereign Front for Lebanon" celebrated its second anniversary in Ma'arab in a gathering attended by the leader of the "Lebanese Forces" party, Samir Geagea, and its members. Member of the "Strong Republic" bloc, MP Camille Chamoun, stated, "This struggle is not new to us, as we have previously undertaken it in the Lebanese Front, which sacrificed thousands of martyrs.""We will continue in this direction, even though we have overcome many challenges and accomplished the majority of them. Still, much remains to be done, and this will only succeed if we stand united in the fight against this indirect occupation we are facing," he added. He emphasized, "Nothing will divide us because we are united in building a new nation where Lebanese people live with dignity and freedom without external influences. The will is Lebanese, and it will remain so."
Furthermore, he pointed out that the Front is ongoing and open to those who wish to join, especially since its struggle is for the benefit of Lebanon. He stressed that having numerous fronts weakens the ranks, and to prevent the opposing team from dominating the country, "we must unite within one front to face significant challenges." This message is directed at all components of the country. In his turn, Ashraf Rifi, member of the "Renewal" bloc, said, "We, as Lebanese, Christians and Muslims, are united to build a homeland that resembles us and does not resemble others. A homeland that cannot be described as a field of terrorism or a 'captagon' factory."He confirmed that what distinguishes them is their national fusion and pluralism, which is an added value, and they will continue in this direction. He also noted that "Change has even begun in the environment controlled by the Iranian project. Our loud voices have given people hope, and our optimism is realistic, not illusory," hoping that we will reach the election of a new, sovereign president of the republic so that history will record the first failure of the other project. As for the "Lebanese Forces" leader, he pointed out the presence of ideological differences with the other side but clarified that their main problem is with the resistance axis because "it puts its fangs in the country and wants to rule, but it doesn't know how." He said the clearest evidence was that it had a president and a parliamentary and ministerial majority in recent years but failed. He stated that the resistance axis clings to the Lebanese people and the Lebanese state, leading them to destruction and ruin. He explained that this axis, with the end of Aoun's term, insists on renewing itself for another six years through its candidate. However, the opposition stood in its way and made significant efforts to prevent this renewal, although it was not easy. Geagea emphasized that the resistance axis differs from the state's project and strategy. He pointed out that the opposition's priority starts from the north and ends at Naqoura at its extreme. It spans from Beirut to the Bekaa Valley at its widest.
Meanwhile, this "axis" considers all we mentioned to be a small region within a much larger nation and works for its interests, which often conflict with Lebanon's interests and its people; he continued, "This led to the country's collapse, the deterioration of its people's situation, the loss of their deposits and funds, and its international and Arab reputation."Geagea concluded by saying, "During this year, we managed to confront this 'giant machine,' which is not an easy achievement, even leading to the exposure of reality. We prevented the renewal of the resistance axis for itself, and this is almost final. Even if they continue to attempt renewal, we will continue until the Lebanese people live freely and with dignity in their country."

Government departments face power cut-off over unpaid bills
LBCI/September30, 2023
This is not the first time the Electricité du Liban (EDL) has threatened to cut off power to public administrations that do not pay. However, this time, things are different as the decision came following a recommendation from the Ministerial Committee for Electricity and the approval of the Central Council of EDL. In a final warning, the EDL informed all government departments of the necessity to settle their electricity consumption bills with the EDL in Lebanese Lira, not through zero-interest transfers to the EDL's account at the Central Bank of Lebanon, whether for overdue bills or new bills. The EDL has given the government departments only one month to settle their accounts. However, according to LBCI, no concerned departments have contacted the EDL to schedule payments or installments. Nevertheless, this does not diminish Electricité du Liban's determination to implement the decision this time. They consider electricity a commodity whose cost must be paid; the company cannot provide it for free. The total amount due is over 900 billion Lebanese Lira or 17 million US dollars at the exchange rate of LBP 52,320 per dollar. Notably, government departments do not include these bills in their budgets. Today, the EDL needs every Lebanese Lira and every US dollar of these funds. So, will the campaign to collect these bills from institutions that once believed they were above the law succeed at the expense of the people?

Lebanon's Changing Climate: Adapting to Extremes and Global Concerns
LBCI/September30, 2023
We've entered the seasons of autumn and winter, and as the world around us witnesses rapid and sometimes destructive climate changes, and since Lebanon is at the heart of it all, we've seen some weather changes throughout the year. We need to be prepared for what lies ahead in the coming months. For example, last fall, in October 2022, Lebanon was hit by a heavy rainstorm that caused significant rainfall in a short period. This led to floods that stranded cars for hours, and unfortunately, an elderly citizen named Ramez Makhoul lost his life after his car was swept away in a slope in the Zouk Mosbeh area.
During the winter, we experienced a long period of stability that lasted over three weeks, and we saw snow on January 31st. In the summer, specifically in late August, on the 28th, we witnessed a hailstorm and heavy rainfall exceeding 30 mm in some areas. Additionally, we experienced intense heatwaves with temperatures reaching 37°C on the coast, 38°C in the mountains, and 43°C in the Bekaa Valley. Humidity levels reached 95%. What's happening with the weather around the world? Every season, we witness waves of climate extremes, which is a concern.
So, what's happening with the weather around the world? Joe Kareh can indeed tell us more. What does climate change mean? Climate patterns worldwide are changing significantly, affecting both temperatures and rainfall. The weather is becoming more extreme. What causes climate change? The phenomenon of global warming has been worsening for years. What is global warming? Global warming is the rise in average surface temperatures near the Earth's surface. What causes global warming? The cause is pollution and the emission of gases like carbon dioxide from various factors, including heavy industries and population growth. Does Lebanon contribute to greenhouse gas emissions? No, Lebanon is not an industrial country and, therefore, does not contribute to the causes of global warming. What are the damages of global warming? One of the results of global warming is climate change worldwide and frequent extreme weather events in various countries. Is Lebanon immune to extreme weather? Certainly not. Lebanon is affected in one way or another, and we need to adapt to the reality, plan, and take precautions against heatwaves, floods, and more.

Lebanon's logistical challenge: How Lebanese citizens navigate the complex issue of Syrian refugees
LBCI/September30, 2023
This is a model of citizens who contribute to the defense of the unregulated and illegal presence of Syrian refugees in Lebanon. A commercial establishment is managed by a Syrian, but when the state and local authorities intervene, it becomes the property of a Lebanese individual. The municipal police of Ghobeiry completed a campaign to close shops and establishments owned by non-Lebanese individuals who do not possess the necessary licenses. This campaign, which recently started, was preceded by similar actions in some governorates and municipalities, such as the Bekaa Governorate, which began at the end of 2018. Today, in the Bekaa, the enforcement of these measures differs. It is primarily carried out by the security forces, with occasional cooperation from municipalities, in accordance with judicial orders issued by the Public Prosecutor at the Court of Appeal in the Bekaa to inspect institutions managed by foreigners. This is particularly important since the Bekaa region bears alarming indicators. For instance, out of approximately 2,000 institutions in Bar Elias, more than 1,500 are managed by Syrians. Other governorates like Baalbek-Hermel and the North also witness similar measures, but the execution varies from one municipality to another. According to monitoring sources, the slow execution can be attributed to several reasons, with the primary one being that municipalities face logistical difficulties, whether related to equipment or manpower. Additionally, sources report Lebanese complicity with Syrians and covering for them during raids. All of the above underscores the need for more resources to support the institutions entrusted with implementing the Interior Ministry's directives. Will this support be secured? More importantly, will some Lebanese citizens awaken from the "stupor" of personal interest in favor of the nation as a whole?

Strategic Crossroads: Assessing Lebanon's Role in Evolving Maritime Routes
LBCI/September30, 2023
With the announcement of the economic route from India to the UAE and Saudi Arabia, passing through the port of Haifa and reaching Europe, questions have arisen about the role of the port of Beirut. Officials at this port rushed to contact Saudi officials, but they responded that the exploration of Lebanon's future role through this route cannot happen before the election of a president and the restructuring of authority. The US aid to the Lebanese army will not stop next October if a president is not elected, according to an official at the US embassy in Beirut, as confirmed to LBCI. However, the program supporting the Lebanese army and internal security forces, which provided financial assistance of $100 per month for each member, will stop in November, according to the US official, due to the end of its specified six-month period. As of now, there is no plan to renew this support due to the reluctance of Lebanese officials to elect a president and implement the economic reforms required by the International Monetary Fund.

Makhzoumi: All solidarity with the Republic of Pakistan
NNA/September30/2023
MP Fouad Makhzoumi expressed today via platform “X” all solidarity with the Republic of Pakistan and its dear people in wake of the two terrorist attacks that claimed the lives of dozens of victims and caused several injuries, saying: "We strongly condemn and denounce these two attacks and all forms of violence and terrorism wherever they occur, and we call on the international community to exert more efforts and cooperation to reduce these practices that threaten security and stability in the region."He added: "We extend our sincere condolences to the families of the victims and our wishes for a speedy recovery for the wounded."

Lebanese presidency does not seem imminent despite many active initiatives, deems Abu Faour
NNA/September30/2023
Member of the "Democratic Gathering" parliamentary bloc, MP Wael Abu Faour, considered that the republic presidency does not seem imminent despite the many active initiatives in this regard. Speaking during a meeting with heads of branches of the Progressive Socialist Party in the South on Saturday, the MP said: "Logic says that there is no chance for any president who is not a consensus president, and everyone is aware of that, but there is reluctance to move to the third alternative, and there is no agreement on a scenario for everyone to climb down the tree of high proposals!” "The Progressive Socialist Party shall continue to call on everyone to give priority to the logic of a fair settlement," pledged Abu Faour. He added that the PSP will also continue to carry out its educational, social and health duties towards the Lebanese citizens to alleviate their suffering, which will only cease through the election of a president of the republic and taking the path of rescue and reform that go hand in hand.

PSP condemns today's attack on people in Central Beirut
NNA/September30/2023
The Progressive Socialist Party’s Information Commission wrote today on platform “X”: "The continued attack on people witnessed today in downtown Beirut is condemned and completely rejected, regardless of any consideration...The security forces must arrest the aggressors and refer them to justice, and they are required to perform their duty to preserve freedom.”

Syrian presence threatens Lebanon’s demographics," warns Mawlawi
NNA/September30/2023
Caretaker Minister of the Interior and Municipalities, Bassam al-Mawlawi, cautioned against the rising number of displaced Syrians in Lebanon, considering that "their presence threatens the demographics of Lebanon."“The problem of displacement is huge and tough, and we must deal with it out of our concern for Lebanon’s existence, Lebanon’s interest, and according to the law," Mawlawi underlined, adding, "We call on the international community to come up with a clear plan for the return of the displaced.”His words came during his patronage of a ceremony organized by "Amal Movement" pertaining to the work of its municipal and mayoral affairs council, held today at the UNESCO Palace in Beirut. Minister Mawlawi also touched in his delivered word on the conditions of municipalities, the development of their work, the financial crisis, the revenues of unions and municipalities, the Syrian displacement crisis, the waste problem, encroachment on state properties and the security situation in the country. Referring to the work of local municipal councils, Mawlawi stressed that “municipalities are a manifestation of the administrative decentralization stipulated in the Taif Accord and are present in the laws," adding that “municipalities compensate for the state’s negligence in crises and are called upon today more than ever to continue their work and contribute to development and modernization.”Mawlawi also called for introducing youth and modernity into municipal and mayoral work, so as to ensure advancement and the creation of new ideas. At the political level, Mawlawi emphasized that building the state entails that all Lebanese adhere to the country’s interest and implement the law. In this context, the Interior Minister expressed his appreciation for “the efforts of the security and military forces in maintaining security and stability in the country in cooperation with the Lebanese army,” and called for “cooperation to overcome crises and preserve the country.”

Bassil before economic bodies in Central Bekaa, Zahle: With administrative decentralization, each region will be able to assume its economic role &...
NNA/September30/2023
Free Patriotic Movement Chief, MP Gebran Bassil, underlined “the importance of approving administrative decentralization and the trust fund because of their positive aspects in developing the Lebanese regions, so that they can keep pace with advancement and compete for the better without being tied down by resorting to the legislative and executive authorities.” Speaking before members of Central Bekaa and Zahle’s economic bodies whom he met at Park Hotel Chtoura this afternoon, Bassil highlighted the significance of cooperation between the public and private sectors.
He believed that “with administrative decentralization, each region will be able to assume its economic role and function according to its nature,” adding that “administrative decentralization has several advantages.”On a different note, Bassil met during his day tour with the pastor of the Maronite Diocese of Zahle, Bishop Joseph Mouawad, the pastor of the Greek Orthodox Diocese of Zahle and Baalbek, Metropolitan Antonious of Tyre, the pastor of the Syriac Orthodox Diocese, Bishop Boulos Safar, and the pastor of the Diocese of Ferzol, Zahle, and the Bekaa, Bishop Ibrahim Ibrahim.

Foreign Ministry affirms that Lebanon stands by Pakistan in confronting terrorism
NNA/September30/2023
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Emigrants expressed, in a statement on Saturday, its condemnation of the two terrorist attacks that took place in the provinces of Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwain the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, resulting in dozens of casualties and injuries. The Ministry affirmed that “the Lebanese Republic stands by the Islamic Republic of Pakistan and its people in confronting terrorism and denounces all forms of violence aimed at destabilizing security and stability." The Foregin Ministry also extended its "deepest condolences and sympathy to the friendly Pakistani president, government, people, and families of the victims," wishing a speedy recovery to the wounded.

Confrontations between “Freedom March” participants and a group of young men at Martrys', Riad al-Solh Squares
NNA/September30/2023
Both Martyrs' and Riad al-Solh Squares in central Beirut witnessed confrontations between a number of participants in the "Freedom March" and young men on motorcycles who tried to prevent the participants from advancing, rejecting what they referred to as "all manifestations of anomalies in the streets of Beirut," National News Agency correspondent reported this evening. A group of people had earlier called for a march in support of liberties to set out at 4:00 p.m. today from Riad al-Solh Square towards the Ministry of Interior in Sanayeh. However, the young men who rejected the march addressed the Minister of the Interior urging him to cancel the march immediately, stressing that they would intercept it and confront its participants.

Army units raid displaced Syrians camp, arrests wanted individuals in Choueifat, Ghobeiry & Sabra areas for committing various crimes
NNA/September30/2023
The Army Command's Orientation Directorate issued the following communique on Saturday: “An army unit, supported by a patrol from the Intelligence Directorate, raided a camp for displaced Syrians in the Choueifat Desert area and arrested 7 Syrians and 5 Bangladeshis, for wandering around without identification papers, in addition to Lebanese citizen for possessing military equipment and ammunition.” The communique added: "A patrol from the Intelligence Directorate in the Ghobeiry area also arrested two citizens wanted for several arrest warrants pertaining to drug use and trafficking, as a quantity of drugs was seized from their possession, as well as a military pistol and a large sum of money.""The patrol also arrested a citizen in the Sabra area, who is wanted for crimes of shooting, drug use and drug trafficking, possession of military weapons and ammunition, and forming a gang to attack passers-by," the communique went on. It indicated that the seized items were handed over to the concerned side and investigations were initiated with the arrestees.

Geagea on 2nd anniversary of the launch of “Sovereign Front”: The resistance clings to the neck of the people and the state
NNA/September30/2023
The “Sovereign Front for Lebanon” in Maarab commemorated the second anniversary of its launch, in a meeting in which the head of the “Lebanese Forces” party, Samir Geagea, participated in the presence of its members. Samir Geagea saw that “the resistance team clings to the neck of the Lebanese people and the Lebanese state until it leads them to ruin and destruction,” explaining that this axis, with the end of Aoun’s term, insists on renewing itself for another 6 years by presenting its candidate, but the “opposition” repelled them. Geagea accused the opposition group of trying to impose a president, saying: “They came to the point of becoming “Shiite embassies” by colluding with some in the French government in an attempt to pass their candidate until it came to the intervention of France on the one hand, and Iran on the other hand, and pressure on other regional powers on this matter."

Mortada at the opening of the Soho International Conference: No way out of the severe political impasse except through dialogue
NNA/September30/2023
Caretaker Minister of Culture, Mohammad Mortada, partook in the first international conference “SOHO MENA”, which was held at the headquarters of the National Library - Al-Sanayeh, under the patronage of the Caretaker Minister of Health, Firass Abiad. During his speech, Mortada expressed his hope that “the holding of this conference will be an inspiration to those who refuse to meet, deliberate, and dialogue,” stressing that "there is no way out of the severe political impasse that threatens our institutions and our economic and social security except through meeting, deliberating, and holding dialogue."

Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on September 30-October 01/2023
Armenia Asks World Court to Order Azerbaijan to Withdraw Troops from Nagorno-Karabakh
Asharq Al Awsat/30 September 2023
Armenia has asked the World Court to order Azerbaijan to withdraw all its troops from civilian establishments in Nagorno-Karabakh and provide the United Nations access, the court said on Friday. The World Court, formally known as the International Court of Justice, in February ordered Azerbaijan to ensure free movement through the Lachin corridor to and from the disputed region, in what then was an intermediate step in legal disputes with neighbouring Armenia. More than three quarters of the 120,000-strong population of the ethnic Armenian breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh had fled by Friday afternoon after defeat by Azerbaijan last week. In a request for provisional measures submitted on Thursday, Armenia asked the court to reaffirm the orders it gave Azerbaijan in February and to order it to refrain from all actions directly or indirectly aimed at displacing the remaining ethnic Armenians from the region, Reuters reported. Some international experts have said the exodus of ethnic Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh meets the conditions for the war crime of "deportation or forcible transfer", or even a crime against humanity. The United States and others have called on Baku to allow international monitors into Karabakh, amid concerns about possible human rights abuses. Armenia has accused Azerbaijan of ethnic cleansing in Karabakh, something Baku strongly denies. Azerbaijan has invited a United Nations mission to visit Nagorno-Karabakh "in the coming days", the foreign ministry said on Friday. The World Court in The Hague is the UN court for resolving disputes between countries. Its rulings are binding, but it has no direct means of enforcing them.

Armenia's Government: Almost All of Nagorno-Karabakh's People Have Left
Asharq Al Awsat/30 September 2023
An ethnic Armenian exodus has nearly emptied Nagorno-Karabakh of residents since Azerbaijan attacked and ordered the breakaway region’s militants to disarm, the Armenian government said Saturday. Nazeli Baghdasaryan, the press secretary to Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, said 100,417 people had arrived in Armenia from Nagorno-Karabakh, which had a population of around 120,000 before Azerbaijan reclaimed the region in a lightning offensive last week. A total of 21,043 vehicles had crossed the Hakari Bridge, which links Armenia to Nagorno-Karabakh, since last week, Baghdasaryan said. Some lined up for days because the winding mountain road that is the only route to Armenia became jammed. The departure of more than 80% of Nagorno-Karabakh's population raises questions about Azerbaijan’s plans for the enclave that was internationally recognized as part of its territory. The region's separatist ethnic Armenian government said Thursday it would dissolve itself by the end of the year after a three-decade bid for independence. Pashinyan has alleged the ethnic Armenian exodus amounted to “a direct act of an ethnic cleansing and depriving people of their motherland.” Azerbaijan’s Foreign Ministry strongly rejected the characterization, saying the mass migration by the region's residents was “their personal and individual decision and has nothing to do with forced relocation.”In a related development, Azerbaijani authorities on Friday arrested the former foreign minister of Nagorno-Karabakh’s separatist government, presidential advisor David Babayan, Azerbaijan’s Prosecutor General’s Office said Saturday. Babayan's arrest follows the Azerbaijani border guard's detention of the former head of Nagorno-Karabakh’s separatist government, State Minister Ruben Vardanyan, as he tried to cross into Armenia on Wednesday. The arrests appear to reflect Azerbaijan’s intention to quickly enforce its grip on the region after the military offensive.

Karabakh Armenians leave for Armenia
NNA/September30/2023
The press office of the Armenian government announced today, Saturday, the arrival of 100,417 people from Karabakh to Armenia, and 21,043 by means of transport crossing the Hakkari Bridge in the Lachin humanitarian corridor, which is secured by Russian peacekeeping forces, according to the "Novosti" news agency. 81,139 people were registered with the Armenian authorities, who allocated temporary housing to accommodate 32,200 people. Earlier, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev confirmed that the Armenian residents of Karabakh will have the same rights as Azerbaijani citizens if they decide to remain in the region. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said earlier that "not a single Armenian will remain in the Karabakh region, as they will be deported as part of a systematic policy of ethnic cleansing," which angered the Azerbaijani authorities.

Azerbaijan Will Allow UN Experts To Visit Karabakh 'In A Matter Of Days,’ Presidential Office Says
RT/September 30/2023
Azerbaijan intends to allow a group of experts from the United Nations and media representatives to visit the Karabakh region "in a matter of days,” the office of a presidential adviser said on Friday. The number of ethnic Armenians fleeing the region following Azerbaijan's lightning military offensive reached nearly 90,000 out of an estimated population of 120,000. While Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has said, the rights of Karabakh's Armenians would be fully respected.

Israeli Soldiers Kill Palestinian Man in West Bank
Asharq Al Awsat/30 September 2023
Israeli soldiers shot and killed a Palestinian man in the West Bank late Friday, Palestinian health officials said, the latest death in a monthslong surge of violence in the occupied territory. The Israeli military said that soldiers had shot two Palestinians who hurled Molotov cocktails at an army post near the West Bank city of Ramallah, the seat of the Palestinian authority. The Palestinian Health Ministry said the soldiers killed Muhammad Rumaneh from the hardscrabble Amari refugee camp in Ramallah. It did not identify his age, saying that Israeli authorities were withholding his body, The AP reported.
Israeli officials have suggested in the past that holding onto the bodies of Palestinians slain in security incidents can deter attacks and prevent the exaltation of assailants at funerals that often draw giant crowds of protesters. In lieu of a funeral, residents of Ramallah called for a general strike Saturday to pay tribute to Rumaneh. Student groups at the prominent Birzeit University near Ramallah called off Sunday classes. The incident was the latest in a spiral of violence that has gripped the occupied territory for more than 1 1/2 year. The Israeli military has mounted near-nightly raids into Palestinian towns, often prompting deadly clashes with residents. Militancy has surged among young Palestinians who have lost hope in their leadership and in the prospect of a political resolution to the conflict. Nearly 200 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli fire so far this year in the West Bank, according to a tally by The AP— the highest death toll in years. Israel says most of those killed have been militants, but stone-throwing youths protesting incursions as well as innocent bystanders have also been killed. Palestinian attacks against Israelis have killed more than 30 people since the start of 2023. Israel captured the West Bank, along with east Jerusalem and the Gaza Strip, in the 1967 Mideast war.

Türkiye Confirms Readiness to Resume Normalization Talks with Syria
Asharq Al Awsat/30 September 2023
Türkiye has confirmed its readiness to resume normalization talks with Syria, but refused calls for a military withdrawal from the north of the country, saying that it was “illogical” to raise this matter at the present time. Turkish Defense Minister Yaşar Guler noted that his country “is ready to resume talks with Syria, with the participation of Russia and Iran, as part of the normalization of relations between Ankara and Damascus.”
In statements to the media on Friday, Guler said that Ankara was always ready for dialogue, but the demands of the Syrian side were “not something that can be accepted immediately.” Türkiye questions the ability of the Syrian army to protect the borders, which Ankara says are threatened by the spread of the Kurdish People’s Protection Units, the largest component of the SDF. Moscow, which is sponsoring the process of normalizing relations between Ankara and Damascus, proposed returning to the Adana Agreement, signed in 1999, which allows Turkish forces to penetrate 5 kilometers deep into Syrian territory if they are exposed to threats. However, Türkiye insists on a distance of 30 kilometers and refuses to withdraw from areas under its control in northern Syria. Iran also revealed that an agreement had been reached between Ankara and Damascus during the last Astana round, which was held on June 20-21, on a formula for the withdrawal of Turkish forces and securing the borders. But the two capitals did not comment on this announcement, which was made by Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian. Meanwhile, the Turkish National Security Council confirmed Ankara’s determination to fight terrorist organizations in the region, including the Kurdistan Workers’ Party and the Kurdish People’s Protection Units, which Türkiye considers to be an arm of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party in Syria. A statement issued on Thursday night, at the conclusion of the council meeting, pointed to “the legitimate resistance of the Syrian people against the terrorist organization, which kills innocents and recruits children...”The statement added that this organization “is the biggest obstacle to peace, security and stability in Syria.”

Pentagon fears artificial intelligence will get out of control
NNA/September30/2023 
Bloomberg reported that the US Department of Defense invited artificial intelligence companies to talk more about their technologies, according to "Russia Today". As per the agency, the Pentagon fears that artificial intelligence is out of control and is being compared to “technologies coming from other planets.”Craig Martell, director of the Digital and Artificial Intelligence Department at the Pentagon, called on American companies to provide the information they have on how to design artificial intelligence programs so that “the department feels comfortable and safe.”

US claims Israel-Saudi moving towards 'framework' for normalisation deal
The New Arab & News Agencies/September30/2023  
Israel and Saudi Arabia are moving towards the outline of a historic US-brokered deal to normalize relations, the White House said on Friday. President Joe Biden is hoping to transform the Middle East -- and score an election-year diplomatic victory -- by securing recognition of the Jewish state by Saudi Arabia, the guardian of Islam's two holiest sites. "All sides have hammered out, I think, a basic framework for what, you know, what we might be able to drive at," National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters. "But, as in any complex arrangement, as this will inevitably be, everybody is going to have to do something. And everybody is going to have to compromise on some things." The United States has urged its Middle East allies Israel and Saudi Arabia to normalize diplomatic relations, following on from similar deals involving the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Morocco. Saudi Arabia's crown prince and de facto ruler, Mohammed bin Salman, recently said that the two sides were getting closer, as did Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Saudi Arabia has been seeking security guarantees, including reportedly a treaty, with the United States in return for normalizing with Israel.
But the Palestinians have warned that they must be taken into account in any deal, saying there can be no peace in the Middle East without a two-state solution. ---

UN Security Council Condemns Houthi Attack on Southern Saudi Arabia
Reuters/September 30/2023
The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) condemned the recent Houthi attack on Saudi Arabia's southern border that left four Bahraini servicemen from the Coalition to Restore Legitimacy in Yemen dead. The Council warned in a statement Friday that the attack constituted a "serious threat to the peace process and regional stability." It urged the Houthis to cease their "terrorist attacks" and expressed concern over the targeting of infrastructure in cities near the Saudi border. The Council's members reiterated their apprehension about the impact of these actions on the broader area. The statement urged all parties to honor their international and humanitarian law commitments. The 15-member Council emphasized the importance of taking decisive steps towards a permanent ceasefire. They expressed their support for efforts to achieve a political solution in Yemen that would alleviate suffering, endorsing the endeavors of the UN Envoy to Yemen to find a resolution to the ongoing conflict in the country. Saudi Arabia and Oman are leading initiatives to persuade the Houthis to agree to a renewed truce in Yemen, expanding the ceasefire to include humanitarian issues and concluding with a roadmap to end the conflict.
Meanwhile, the US Treasury Department announced Thursday new sanctions against entities providing Iran with engines used to manufacture drones. The sanctions included a Chinese company that supplied servomotors worth more than a hundred thousand dollars to the Houthis in Yemen.
Yemeni political and military observers believe the Houthis are not genuinely committed to reaching a peace agreement that would end the war, as they seem to be preparing for another round of conflict after receiving more weapons. During a meeting in Riyadh, Yemen Armed Forces Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Sagheer bin Aziz asserted to the US Ambassador to Yemen, Steven Fagin, that Iran continues to supply its Houthi militias with advanced weaponry. During the discussions, bin Aziz highlighted the Houthi threats to the security of Yemen, the region, and international navigation. According to Saba news agency, he further touched upon the implications these groups have on counter-terrorism efforts. The official noted that Yemen's experiences with peace talks with the Houthi militia have been bitter at various stages, indicating that the militia adheres to a doctrine of violence and racial discrimination and consistently violates agreements. The Armed Forces Chief accused the Houthis of persisting with hostile operations against cities, public facilities, military positions, and resistance forces despite the UN-sponsored ceasefire.

Saudi Finance Minister Participates in Berlin Global Dialogue 2023
Asharq Al Awsat/September 30/2023
Saudi Minister of Finance Mohammed bin Abdullah Al-Jadaan participated in the Berlin Global Dialogue 2023 hosted by the European School of Management and Technology (ESMT) on September 28 and 29. During the event in the German capital, Al-Jadaan held meetings with government officials and major global investors and participated in sessions on macro-financial policies and economic and financial affairs. The dialogue seeks to provide a platform for effective communication and dialogue between government leaders and the business sector.
The goal of the platform is to contribute to formulating proper policies and promoting global economic growth.

French ambassador to Niger returns to Paris amid diplomatic tensions
Reuters/September 30/2023
The French ambassador to Niger returned to Paris on Wednesday, following his expulsion by the military junta roughly a month ago. This comes shortly after President Emmanuel Macron announced the diplomat’s recall and the withdrawal of French troops. Relations between Niger and France, its former colonial ruler which maintained a military presence in the country to help fight Islamist insurgents, have broken down since army officers seized power in Niamey in July. The junta had ordered French ambassador Sylvain Itté to leave the country within 48 hours at the end of August in response to what they described as actions by France that were “contrary to the interests of Niger”. France at first ignored the order, sticking to its stance that the military government was illegitimate and calling for the reinstatement of elected President Mohamed Bazoum, who was toppled in the coup. But in an about turn, Macron announced on Sunday that the ambassador would return to Paris and French troops would leave. Two security sources in Niger said Sylvain Itté had flown out of the country. The president’s office in Paris later confirmed Itte took off to Paris from the Chadian capital N’Djamena at around 8 A.M. on Wednesday.
According to the Quai d'Orsay, he was received on his return by French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna. “Today is a very proud day for me, and especially for the Nigerien people, hearing of the French ambassador’s departure who stubbornly stayed in Niger to show that the new government was not a real authority,” local resident, Yucouba Abdou, told Reuters. “But today, he saw that Niger was not a little country,” Abdou added. There have been almost daily protests against France in Niamey since the military took power. Crowds of junta supporters have spent days camping outside a French military base to demand the troops’ departure. Macron had said Sylvain Itté and his staff were effectively being held hostage at the embassy. -

Burkina Faso transitional president announces 'partial amendment' to the constitution, says elections not a 'priority'
AFP/September 30/2023
Transitional President of Burkina Faso, Captain Ibrahim Traore, stated in a televised interview on Friday evening that elections in his country are not a "priority." He also announced his intention to make a "partial amendment" to the constitution. After nearly a year in power following a coup, Traore discussed the elections theoretically scheduled for July 2024, saying to journalists, "They are not a priority, I tell you this clearly. Security is the priority" in a country undermined by jihadist violence. Responding to a question about the possibility of revising the constitution, Traore said, "The current texts do not allow us to evolve peacefully." He announced a "partial amendment" to the constitution, considering that the current text reflects the "opinion of a handful of enlightened individuals" at the expense of "the popular masses.” Despite Traore stating that elections are not a "priority," he added that "our commitment is still valid" to organize this electoral process without specifying a date. He continued, "There will not be elections only concentrated in Ouagadougou and Bobo-Dioulasso and in some surrounding cities; all the inhabitants of Burkina Faso must choose their president," indicating the two cities that have remained relatively untouched by recurrent jihadist attacks. He added, "We must ensure security," and then "people will be able to move freely and go where they want to organize campaigns." Thousands demonstrated across the country on Friday in support of the military regime, calling for the adoption of a new constitution.

US warns of large Serbian military build-up near Kosovo
Agence France Presse/September30/2023
The United States has urged Belgrade to pull its forces back from the border with Kosovo after detecting what it called an "unprecedented" Serbian military build-up. Serbia deployed sophisticated tanks and artillery on the frontier after deadly clashes erupted at a monastery in northern Kosovo last week, the White House warned. The violence -- in which a Kosovo police officer and three Serb gunmen were killed -- marked one of the gravest escalations for years in Kosovo, a former Serbian breakaway province. "We are monitoring a large Serbian military deployment along the border with Kosovo," White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters. "That includes an unprecedented staging of advanced Serbian artillery, tanks, mechanized infantry units. We believe that this is a very destabilizing development." He added: "We are calling on Serbia to withdraw those forces from the border." The build-up took place within the last week but its purpose was not yet clear, Kirby said. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken had telephoned Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic to urge "immediate deescalation and a return to dialogue," he added. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan also spoke with Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti and "expressed concern about Serbian military mobilizations," according to a readout of the call. The pair also "discussed the EU-facilitated Dialogue between Kosovo and Serbia, which Mr. Sullivan underscored was the only long-term solution to ensuring stability throughout Kosovo," the readout said. Serbia's leader Vucic did not directly deny there had been a recent build-up but rejected claims that his country's forces were on alert. "I have denied untruths where they talk about the highest level of combat readiness of our forces, because I simply did not sign that and it is not accurate," Vucic told reporters. "We don't even have half the troops we had two or three months ago." Serbia said Wednesday that the defense minister and head of the armed forces had gone to visit a "deployment zone" but gave no further details.
'Worrisome'
The clashes on Sunday began when heavily armed Serb gunmen ambushed a patrol a few miles from the Serbian border, killing a Kosovo police officer. Several dozen assailants then barricaded themselves at an Orthodox monastery, sparking an hour-long firefight in which three gunmen were killed and three were arrested. Kosovo's government has accused Belgrade of backing the operation, while a member of a major Kosovo Serb political party admitted to leading the gunmen, his lawyer said Friday. Kirby said the attack had a "very high level of sophistication", involving around 20 vehicles, "military-grade" weapons, equipment and training. "It's worrisome. It doesn't look like just a bunch of guys who got together to do this," he said. The NATO peacekeeping force known as KFOR would be "increasing its presence" following the attack, Kirby added. In Brussels, NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg confirmed that the US-led alliance was ready to boost the force to deal with the situation. In the north of Kosovo, where the Serb minority is concentrated, KFOR has decided to "increase its presence and activity", added a NATO official who requested anonymity. He added that KFOR was prepared to make "further adjustments" if necessary to enable it to fulfil its peacekeeping mandate. Kosovo broke away from Serbia in a bloody war in 1998-99 and declared independence in 2008 -- a status Belgrade and Moscow have refused to recognise. It has long seen strained relations between its ethnic Albanian majority and Serb minority, which have escalated in recent months in northern Kosovo.

US government hours from shutdown, funding chaos
Agence France Presse/September30/2023
The U.S. government on Saturday was hours from shutting down after the far right of the Republican Party scuppered final attempts at a temporary budget agreement, throwing into doubt everything from access to national parks to Washington's massive support for Ukraine. The closure of all but critical government services, set to start after midnight Saturday (0400 GMT Sunday) if lawmakers fail to reach a deal, would be the first since 2019 -- immediately delaying salaries for millions of federal employees and military personnel. The two chambers of Congress are deadlocked, with a small group of Republicans in the House of Representatives pushing back against stopgap measures that would at least keep the lights on. On Friday, House Republicans defeated a plan proposed by their own leader, Speaker Kevin McCarthy, to keep funds flowing, deepening the sense of growing chaos within the party ahead of 2024 elections where hard-right former president Donald Trump hopes to return to the White House. The White House Office of Management and Budget's director Shalanda Young said there was "still a chance" of avoiding a shutdown if Republicans could end internal divisions. And White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre made clear that President Joe Biden, who is seeking a second term in 2024, did not intend to wade in. "The conversation needs to happen between Speaker McCarthy and his caucus. That's the fix, that's the chaos that we're seeing," she said. Speaking to the news outlet ProPublica on Friday, Biden said McCarthy has made "a terrible bargain. In order to keep the speakership, he's willing to do things that he, I think, he knows are inconsistent with the constitutional processes." McCarthy, however, blamed Democrats, saying they are the ones blocking a solution.
Big question on Ukraine
All critical government services will remain functioning. However, a shutdown would mean the majority of national parks, for example -- from the iconic Yosemite and Yellowstone in the west to Florida's Everglades swamp -- would be closed to public access beginning Sunday. With student loan payments resuming in October, officials also said Friday that key activities at the Federal Student Aid office would continue for a couple of weeks. But a prolonged shutdown could cause bigger disruptions. A shutdown "unnecessarily" places the world's largest economy at risk, White House National Economic Council Director Lael Brainard told CNBC. Risks that could percolate through the wider economy include air travel delays, with air traffic controllers asked to work without pay. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned a closure could also delay infrastructure improvements. "In the immediate term, a government shutdown will only reduce GDP by 0.2 percentage points each week it lasts," said a report released Friday by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a think tank. "However, halting critical trade functions of the United States will also undermine the United States' overall credibility as a commercial partner, impede ongoing negotiations and hinder export control enforcement capabilities," the report added. The mess casts a growing shadow over Biden's policy of arming and funding Ukraine in its desperate war against the Russian invasion. For Republican hardliners behind the derailment of a new budget, stopping aid to Ukraine is a key goal. Most Republican members of Congress continue to support U.S. backing for Ukraine, but the shutdown will at minimum raise questions over the political viability of renewing the multibillion-dollar flow of assistance.

Slovakia election pits pro-Russia ex-PM against liberal pro-West newcomer
Associated Press/September30/2023
Voters in Slovakia cast ballots Saturday in an early parliamentary election that pits a populist former prime minister who campaigned on a pro-Russia and anti-American message against a liberal, pro-West newcomer. Depending on which of them prevails, the election could reverse the small eastern European country's support for neighboring Ukraine in the war with Russia, threatening to break a fragile unity in the European Union and NATO. Former Prime MInister Robert Fico, 59, and his leftist Smer, or Direction, party have vowed to withdraw Slovakia's military support for Ukraine in Russia's war, if his attempt to return to power is successful. Smer's main challenger is Progressive Slovakia, a liberal party formed in 2017 and led by Michal Simecka, 39, a member of the European Parliament. Fico, who served as prime minister from 2006 to 2010 and again from 2012 to 2018, opposes EU sanctions on Russia, questions whether Ukraine can force out the invading Russian troops and wants to block Ukraine from joining NATO. He proposes that instead of sending arms to Kyiv, the EU and the U.S. should use their influence to force Russia and Ukraine to strike a compromise peace deal. He has repeated Russian President Vladimir Putin's unsupported claim that the Ukrainian government runs a Nazi state. Fico also campaigned against immigration and LGBTQ+ rights and threatened to dismiss investigators from the National Criminal Agency and the special prosecutor who deal with corruption and other serious crimes. Progressive Slovakia sees the country's future as firmly tied to its existing membership in the EU and NATO. The party vowed to continue Slovakia's support for Ukraine. It also favors LGBTQ+ rights, a rarity among the major parties in a country that is a stronghold of conservative Roman Catholicism. Popular among young people, the party won the 2019 European Parliament election in Slovakia in coalition with the Together party, gaining more than 20% of the vote. But it narrowly failed to win seats in the national parliament in 2020. No party is expected to win a majority of seats Saturday, meaning a coalition government will need to be formed. The party that secures the most votes typically gets the first chance to put together a government. Polls indicate that seven or eight other political groups and parties might surpass a 5% threshold needed for representation in the 150-seat National Council. They include the Republic, a far-right group led by former members of the openly neo-Nazi People's Party Our Slovakia whose members use Nazi salutes and want Slovakia out of the EU and NATO.

US warns of large Serbian military build-up near Kosovo
Agence France Presse/September30/2023
The United States has urged Belgrade to pull its forces back from the border with Kosovo after detecting what it called an "unprecedented" Serbian military build-up. Serbia deployed sophisticated tanks and artillery on the frontier after deadly clashes erupted at a monastery in northern Kosovo last week, the White House warned. The violence -- in which a Kosovo police officer and three Serb gunmen were killed -- marked one of the gravest escalations for years in Kosovo, a former Serbian breakaway province. "We are monitoring a large Serbian military deployment along the border with Kosovo," White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters. "That includes an unprecedented staging of advanced Serbian artillery, tanks, mechanized infantry units. We believe that this is a very destabilizing development." He added: "We are calling on Serbia to withdraw those forces from the border."The build-up took place within the last week but its purpose was not yet clear, Kirby said. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken had telephoned Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic to urge "immediate deescalation and a return to dialogue," he added. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan also spoke with Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti and "expressed concern about Serbian military mobilizations," according to a readout of the call. The pair also "discussed the EU-facilitated Dialogue between Kosovo and Serbia, which Mr. Sullivan underscored was the only long-term solution to ensuring stability throughout Kosovo," the readout said. Serbia's leader Vucic did not directly deny there had been a recent build-up but rejected claims that his country's forces were on alert. "I have denied untruths where they talk about the highest level of combat readiness of our forces, because I simply did not sign that and it is not accurate," Vucic told reporters. "We don't even have half the troops we had two or three months ago." Serbia said Wednesday that the defense minister and head of the armed forces had gone to visit a "deployment zone" but gave no further details.
'Worrisome'
The clashes on Sunday began when heavily armed Serb gunmen ambushed a patrol a few miles from the Serbian border, killing a Kosovo police officer. Several dozen assailants then barricaded themselves at an Orthodox monastery, sparking an hour-long firefight in which three gunmen were killed and three were arrested. Kosovo's government has accused Belgrade of backing the operation, while a member of a major Kosovo Serb political party admitted to leading the gunmen, his lawyer said Friday. Kirby said the attack had a "very high level of sophistication", involving around 20 vehicles, "military-grade" weapons, equipment and training. "It's worrisome. It doesn't look like just a bunch of guys who got together to do this," he said. The NATO peacekeeping force known as KFOR would be "increasing its presence" following the attack, Kirby added. In Brussels, NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg confirmed that the US-led alliance was ready to boost the force to deal with the situation. In the north of Kosovo, where the Serb minority is concentrated, KFOR has decided to "increase its presence and activity", added a NATO official who requested anonymity. He added that KFOR was prepared to make "further adjustments" if necessary to enable it to fulfil its peacekeeping mandate. Kosovo broke away from Serbia in a bloody war in 1998-99 and declared independence in 2008 -- a status Belgrade and Moscow have refused to recognise. It has long seen strained relations between its ethnic Albanian majority and Serb minority, which have escalated in recent months in northern Kosovo.

83% of residents of the new regions apply for Russian citizenship
NNA/September30/2023
A spokeswoman for the Russian Ministry of the Interior, Irina Volk, announced that 83% of the population of the Donetsk and Luhansk republics, and the Zaporozhye and Kherson regions have applied for Russian citizenship, according to "Russia Today". She added: “In the period from October 5, 2022 until December 30, 2023, identity cards were issued to more than 2.2 million citizens of the new regions of Russia, and since 2019 more than 3 million residents of the new regions have obtained Russian citizenship.” Volk continued: "83% of citizens in the new regions have applied for Russian identity cards," noting that "150 centers affiliated with the Russian Immigration Service have been opened in the new regions to process citizenship applications and grant identification documents." The Russian spokeswoman pointed out that "mobile teams affiliated with the Immigration Department provide their services to residents of rural areas, and visit the disabled and the elderly who are unable to visit the immigration branches in the new areas."

Latest English LCCC  analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on September 30-October 01/2023
F-16s for Ukraine, Just as Soon as Belgium Wakes Up
Drieu Godefridi/Gatestone Institute./September30/2023
Ever since Russia invaded Ukraine, the most advanced Free World circles have been calling for Belgian F-16s to be delivered to Ukraine, and the Ukrainian pilots to be trained as quickly as possible. The fact is that by giving the Russians control of the skies, they are almost automatically guaranteed to keep their troops in the Donbass. If the overall Western policy is just "not to let Ukraine lose" rather than to defeat an unprovoked attack against a democracy, Russian President Vladimir Putin will be emboldened to continue his aggression, and China will read the weakness as a green light to invade Taiwan... The US cannot afford another display of weakness or surrender. Putin sent his troops to the Ukraine in September of 2021, just a few weeks after the US abandoned Afghanistan. He got the message that "the coast was clear." Unless there is a clear strategy to defeat Russia, anything short of that will look globally like Afghanistan, the sequel; another example of US fecklessness, and a good reason not to be an ally. The environmentalists do not want to hear about the delivery of F-16s to Ukraine -- first because they are pacifists, in the most ideological, surrendering sense of the word, and second because they know what the European environmental movement owes to Russia. The Russian government has massively financed German environmental foundations, and in addition, the Belgian Energy Minister Tinne Van der Straeten (Groen/Ecolo Party), was a 50% partner in a law firm called BLIXT, one of whose main clients was Gazprom -- in other words, the Russian government.
These are just two of many examples of European environmentalists effectively becoming a fifth column in Europe of the Russian Federation....
There is also a technical obstacle: the F-35 fighter jets intended to replace Belgium's F-16s will be delivered late, and the country cannot do without fighter jets. Its air force is the last sector in which the Belgian military is credible in the eyes of its partners.
According to sources who asked not to be named, the solution Belgium is heading for is the initial delivery of four F-16s to Ukraine, then progressively more when Belgium's F-16s are replaced by F-35s.
However, a movement has recently emerged within the Belgian military, which considers that the Belgian interest is that on the one hand the Russians do not sweep away the Ukrainians and on the other hand that the Belgians regain the respect of their NATO allies.
Belgium's reputation with its NATO partners is on the line. There needs to a delivery of at least a limited number of Belgian F-16s to Ukraine, and their Ukrainian pilots trained at once.
Last week, realizing that Belgium was once again being laughed at by its NATO partners, Belgian federal government ministers David Clarinval and Hadja Lahbib put the idea of delivering Belgian F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine back on the table.
Their recommendation is immensely important for the US and the West. If the overall Western policy is just "not to let Ukraine lose" rather than to defeat an unprovoked attack against a democracy, Russian President Vladimir Putin will be emboldened to continue his aggression, and China will read the weakness as a green light to invade Taiwan. The US is already seen as having abandoned Afghanistan, during a conflict former President Barack Obama had called "the good war." The US cannot afford another display of weakness or surrender. Putin sent his troops to the Ukraine in September of 2021, just a few weeks after the US abandoned Afghanistan. He got the message that "the coast was clear." Unless there is a clear strategy to defeat Russia, anything short of that will look globally like Afghanistan, the sequel; another example of US fecklessness, and a good reason not to be an ally.
Ever since Russia invaded Ukraine, the most advanced Free World circles have been calling for Belgian F-16s to be delivered to Ukraine, and the Ukrainian pilots to be trained as quickly as possible. The fact is that by giving the Russians control of the skies, they are almost automatically guaranteed to keep their troops in the Donbass.
First Belgium pledged to deliver F-16s, then it changed its mind on the extremely questionable grounds that its F-16s were "too old". Several European countries have already committed to delivering them. In August, Denmark and the Netherlands declared their intention to provide Ukraine with F-16s. According to Associated Press:
"Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called [it] an important motivation for his country's forces that are embroiled in a difficult counteroffensive against Russia."
The Belgian media does not talk much about it, but from the outset the Belgian "left" has adopted a fierce "wait-and-see", if not frankly collaborationist, stance towards the Russian regime.
The current Belgian federal government is an unlikely combination of right-wing liberals, left-wing socialists and far-left environmentalists.
The environmentalists do not want to hear about the delivery of F-16s to Ukraine -- first because they are pacifists, in the most ideological, surrendering sense of the word, and second because they know what the European environmental movement owes to Russia. The Russian government has massively financed German environmental foundations, and in addition, the Belgian Energy Minister Tinne Van der Straeten (Groen/Ecolo Party), was a 50% partner in a law firm called BLIXT, one of whose main clients was Gazprom -- in other words, the Russian government.
These are just two of many examples of European environmentalists effectively becoming Russia's fifth column in Europe, in the same way France's Communist Party was in the days of the USSR.
Then there are the socialists, who are also opposed to any substantial aid to Ukraine, other than verbal support. Belgian socialists, especially the French-speaking ones, are still living in the mental atmosphere of the 20th century, when any criticism of Russia was seen as inherently "poisonous."
However, a movement has recently emerged within the Belgian military, which considers that the Belgian interest is that on the one hand the Russians do not sweep away the Ukrainians and on the other hand that the Belgians regain the respect of their NATO allies.
After years of reductions in defense budgets, Belgium's military is now in a challenging condition. Military spending stands at 1.2% of GDP.
Cabinet Ministers Clarinval and Lahbib therefore put the issue of F-16s for Ukraine on the federal government's table, demanding that it be reopened and that the planes be transferred to the embattled Ukrainians.
Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo (center-right) immediately followed suit, as Groen/Ecolo Party and Socialist Party ministers looked on in anger: they seem to see any form of direct military help to Ukraine as "evil." Georges Gilkinet (Ecolo), Minister of Mobility, immediately spoke out against "this irresponsible escalation of hostilities," as if the delivery of F-16s to Ukraine would aggravate war.
De Croo is aware that Belgium must regain its stripes with its partners if it wants to keep the headquarters of NATO in Belgium.
There is also a technical obstacle: the F-35 fighter jets intended to replace Belgium's F-16s will be delivered late, and the country cannot do without fighter jets. Its Air Force is the last sector in which the Belgian military is credible in the eyes of its partners.
According to sources who asked not to be named, the solution Belgium is heading for is the initial delivery of four F-16s to Ukraine, then progressively more when Belgium's F-16s are replaced by F-35s. According to the Air Force, they can do without four F-16s while retaining enough operational units to ensure the protection of Belgian skies and the supply of spare parts.
At the time of the invasion of Ukraine, Gilkinet urged the prime minister to phone Putin "to tell him to stop" -- nothing else. That appears to be the level of geopolitical thinking of the Belgian Greens.
The issue of Ukraine divides the Western right. A sizeable proportion reportedly think that far too much is being done for Ukraine, and that the West is co-responsible for the outbreak of hostilities by having supported the coup d'état against the democratically elected pro-Russian Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, in 2014. The issue, however, is not so much Ukraine as Belgium's lost credibility with its NATO partners. Belgium, with one of the most shamefully underfunded militaries in NATO (along with Germany), is hardly in the same realm of sanctity with its partners and allies. In 2017, President Donald Trump openly criticized and threatened NATO member nations for not fulfilling their financial responsibilities to the alliance and refrained from reaffirming America's dedication to the alliance's mutual defense agreement. "Members of the alliance need to adequately fulfill their financial commitments," Trump said to the leaders, many of whom stood quietly behind him, some visibly uneasy.
Belgium's reputation with its NATO partners is on the line. There needs to a delivery of at least a limited number of Belgian F-16s to Ukraine, and their Ukrainian pilots trained at once.
*Drieu Godefridi is a jurist (Saint-Louis University of Louvain), a philosopher (Saint-Louis University of Louvain) and a doctor in legal theory (Paris IV-Sorbonne). He is the author of The Green Reich.
© 2023 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Danger to Western Lives Takes Off, Thanks to the Biden Administration
Majid Rafizadeh/Gatestone Institute./September30/2023
Even though Iran is a party to the International Convention against the Taking of Hostages, the Islamist regime has long violated it, as it has other commitments, by taking foreign hostages as pawns to extract economic concessions and achieve geopolitical and financial gains.
We can now expect the Iranian regime to arrest or abduct more Americans anywhere it can. Collecting hostages is now big business. Other hostile governments will most likely be tempted to abduct Americans, as well.
Secret attempts by the Biden administration to reach an interim deal with the mullahs have threatened to add not only an estimated $100 billion into Iran's economy, but also, worse, to catapult an Iranian nuclear menace onto the world.
"This exchange operation is in fact one of the most successful and effective negotiation [efforts] ever to happen to the Islamic Republic of Iran. In essence, we released a few Iranian prisoners in exchange for some prisoners whose sentences were about to end, and, on the other hand, we succeeded in releasing billions of dollars of our blocked resources without committing to anything else." — Senior Iranian security source, interview with Fars News, August 12, 2023.
After Obama transferred this $1.7 billion to the Iranian regime to release five Iranian-American prisoners, the theocratic establishment became more emboldened than ever.
"The Trump administration secured prisoner releases without ransom payments...." — Saeed Ghasseminejad, Iran expert at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, Fox News, September 18, 2023.
Increased revenues will also allow the IRGC and Khamenei to crush more easily any domestic protests against their government. The other priorities of Iran's regime are to "export the revolution," and regional military domination. Targeted for this project are Yemen, Syria, Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Latin America, Lebanon and Iraq -- and strengthening the regime's militias and terror groups. America and Israel are presumably being fattened up for eventual extermination.
That is what $6 billion has bought us. And the "Iran Nuclear Deal," which will enable the Iranian regime legitimately to have as many nuclear weapons as it likes, is not even dead.
We can now expect the Iranian regime to arrest or abduct more Americans anywhere it can. Collecting hostages is now big business.
The Iranian regime has lately been collecting hostages: Topher Richwhite and Bridget Thackwray from New Zealand, detained in July 2022, Johan Floderus, a European diplomat from Sweden detained in April 2022, and Bernard Phelan from France detained in October 2022.
This escalation in hostage-taking of Europeans by Iran's regime should not come as a surprise: the Belgian government last year proposed and ratified legislation that paved the way to transfer terrorists who have been convicted abroad back to Iran. The so-called treaty between the Belgian government and the Iranian regime was designed to secure the release of Iranian diplomat-terrorist Assadollah Assadi.
Assadi was arrested in 2018 for plotting to bomb a huge rally held outside Paris, organized by an Iranian opposition group, the National Council of Resistance of Iran. Last year, Assadi was convicted and sentenced to 20 years in prison by a Belgian court for masterminding the terror plot. Had it been successful, it could well have been the worst terrorist incident in modern European history.
Even though Iran is a party to the International Convention against the Taking of Hostages, the Islamist regime has long violated it, as it has other commitments, by taking foreign hostages as pawns to extract economic concessions and achieve geopolitical and financial gains.
The Iranian regime scored the biggest victory in its hostage-taking investment just days ago on September 11, the anniversary of the 9/11 attacks on America, when the Biden administration paid $6 billion and released a handful of Iranian nationals who are serving prison sentences in the US, in exchange for the release of five Iranian-Americans who were imprisoned in Iran. That comes to more than a billion dollars per person— not a bad haul for five captives.
The most unattractive part is that, as an Iranian security official boasted, the sentences for the five Iranian-Americans were about to end anyway. We can now expect the Iranian regime to arrest or abduct more Americans anywhere it can. Collecting hostages is now big business. Other hostile governments will most likely be tempted to abduct Americans, as well.
Incidentally, Iran was found guilty of having provided "assistance" to the 9/11 attackers and ordered to pay the for those attacks and ordered to pay billions of dollars to the families of the victims.
Thanks to the Biden administration's continual appeasement of the Iranian regime, the mullahs have also rapidly advanced their nuclear weapons program, increasing the enrichment of uranium to 84%, just a shade below the 90% level needed for nuclear weapons. Secret attempts by the Biden administration to reach an interim deal with the mullahs have threatened to add not only an estimated $100 billion into Iran's economy, but also, worse, to catapult an Iranian nuclear menace onto the world.
As Senator Mitt Romney recently stated:
"If we're paying a billion dollars per kidnapped individual, then you're going to see more kidnappings. That's why you don't negotiate with terrorists, that's why you don't negotiate with kidnappers. The idea of basically paying to release, in this effect, a hostage is a terrible idea. Remember back in the Reagan years, we had — was it — guns for hostages, that was the story, remember that? This is a billion dollars for a hostage."
Senator Tom Cotton called the action "shameful":
"First Joe Biden used 9/11 as an excuse to flee Afghanistan. Now he desecrates this day by paying ransom to the world's worst state sponsor of terrorism. Shameful."
Iran's rulers, however, understandably view this windfall as a huge success. The indispensable website MEMRI released a report titled "Iranian Regime Policy: Arresting Westerners And Releasing Them In Exchange For Financial And Political Gain," which cites an Iranian security official who bragged in August, 2023:
"This exchange operation is in fact one of the most successful and effective negotiation [efforts] ever to happen to the Islamic Republic of Iran. In essence, we released a few Iranian prisoners in exchange for some prisoners whose sentences were about to end, and, on the other hand, we succeeded in releasing billions of dollars of our blocked resources without committing to anything else."
The Iranian security official also boasted to Fars News -- which is affiliated with Iran's terrorist Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) -- that "this sum of money [$6 billion] that was released to Iran this time is four or five times greater than [the amount released] the last time," a reference to September 7, 2016, when former President Barack Hussein Obama transferred $1.7 billion in cash to the leaders of the Iranian regime.
After Obama transferred the $1.7 billion to the Iranian regime to release five Iranian-American prisoners, the theocratic establishment became more emboldened than ever. Iranian Vice President for Economic Affairs Mohsen Rezaee told Iran's Channel 2 in 2021 that he would capture 1,000 Americans, to earn the regime a trillion dollars by demanding $1 billion ransom for each hostage.
Ayelet Savyon, director of MEMRI's Iran Studies Project and the author of the hostage report, pointed out:
"This success was the basis for the practice's continued use by Iran, and Iranian officials have in recent years recommended several times that Americans or Britons be taken hostage and released in exchange for billions of dollars to boost the Iranian economy or for political gains from the Western countries."
Saeed Ghasseminejad, Iran expert at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told Fox News this month:
"The Trump administration secured prisoner releases without ransom payments, relying instead on just swaps. While exchanging people who have been guilty of nefarious activities such as sanctions-busting and proliferation with innocent American hostages is not ideal, it is still a better option than paying ransom."
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, designated as a terrorist organization by the US Department of State, will most likely be the first beneficiaries of any extra revenues and Biden's $6 billion gift. The Iranian regime will likely use additional funds to capture more Americans, deliver weapons to Russia and strengthen its own military. Increased revenues will also allow the IRGC and Khamenei to crush more easily any domestic protests against their government. The other priorities of Iran's regime are to "export the revolution," and regional military domination. Targeted for this project are Yemen, Syria, Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Latin America, Lebanon and Iraq -- and strengthening the regime's militias and terror groups. America and Israel are presumably being fattened up for eventual extermination.
That is what $6 billion has bought us. And the "Iran Nuclear Deal," which will enable the Iranian regime legitimately to have as many nuclear weapons as it likes, is not even dead.
**Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a business strategist and advisor, Harvard-educated scholar, political scientist, board member of Harvard International Review, and president of the International American Council on the Middle East. He has authored several books on Islam and US Foreign Policy. He can be reached at Dr.Rafizadeh@Post.Harvard.Edu
© 2023 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

This Week in History: Christians Take the Offensive against Islamic Tyranny
Raymond Ibrahim./September30/2023
This week in history witnessed the launch of a daringly amazing campaign dedicated to defending and liberating Christian lands from Islamic oppression.
The year was 1442. After having suffered countless atrocities from the invading Turks, “everyone [in the West] spoke of making war on the infidels and driving them out of Europe”—and it was entirely due to the martial exploits of John Hunyadi, the Transylvanian-born hero who had singlehandedly bested the Turks in several recent engagements.
After putting an army of some 25,000 Christians together—mostly from Hungary, Poland, Wallachia, Moldavia, and Serbia—Hunyadi took the initiative by doing the unthinkable: he led them into Turkish-held territories at the end of September 1442—when campaigning season was supposed to end, due to the usual harsh weather, not begin.
Hunyadi was always in the vanguard, a day ahead of the main army and Hungarian king, Ladislaus III, its formal leader. The Christian army marched south of the Danube, scourging the Turks in every encounter and liberating Christian town after town. The deeper the Christians penetrated into subject Ottoman territory, the larger their army became, as overjoyed Christian subjects, casting off the yoke of their Muslim masters, rushed to join and augment the ranks of their saviors.
After Hunyadi took Niš in early November, and in an attempt to trap and annihilate the Christians, three different Muslim armies converged on the town. With lightning speed, Hunyadi defeated all three, one by one, before they could unite.
By late November, the Christians had reached Sophia in Bulgaria—more than 450 miles whence the Crusaders had first started marching. Considering that Sophia had been under Islamic rule for more than half a century, since 1382, the long oppressed “Bulgarians went wild with joy.” Liberator and liberated reconverted the mosques back into churches and gave thanks in them.
The long cherished dream of freedom from Islamic domination was becoming palpable:
The Balkan peoples became excited by the hope of their liberation which appeared close…. [T]he local population welcomed them everywhere with gifts and food, so that the soldiers hardly used the supplies they had brought along. The camp of the king became filled with Bulgarians, Bosnians, Serbians, and Albanians…. According to the sources from that time, the population was very much set against its [Turkish] oppressors.
The victorious Crusaders next set their sights on Adrianople (Edirne)—the very capital of the Ottoman Empire, and the sultan’s own seat of power. Once a beautiful Greek city, Adrianople was now a major center of the Muslim slave trade. Its markets were so inundated with Christian flesh that children sold for pennies, “a very beautiful slave woman was exchanged for a pair of boots, and four Serbian slaves were traded for a horse.”
Outside the Ottoman capital often lay the remains of the unwanted or undesirable. As Bartolomeo de Giano observed four years earlier, “so great a quantity of [European] bodies lay consumed, partially rotted, partially devoured by dogs, that it would seem unbelievable to anyone who had not seen it with their own eyes.”Between the marching Christian army and the Thracian plain leading to Adrianople stood the vast and snow covered mountains of the Balkan range. Although it was by now December—when no one campaigned—Hunyadi forced the march through the frigid cold and harsh terrain, even as panicked Turks did everything to stall him, including blocking the already narrow passes with stones and felled trees and creating walls and narrow paths of slippery ice.
Still the Christians came on; before long, the sultan was advised to retreat from his capital—so terrified were the Turks.
On December 12, 1443, Hunyadi and his advance cavalry got entrapped at the Zlatitsa Pass; many perished of cold and starvation. On arriving to ambush them, the grand vizier remarked with contempt that he owned more cows than the Christian army had men. After haranguing his exhausted and frozen men with words of violence and hope, “Hunyadi again led that battle himself, and, despite being outnumbered, drove the Turks back to their fortifications in the mountains.”
Due to the fierce and unrelenting winter, and with their supply lines stretched thin, Hunyadi finally ordered a withdrawal—and not a moment too soon. Many men had died of starvation, and many more would die on the long trek back home. Sources record the emaciated men “staggering from side to side as though about to fall; with their pallid faces and sunken eyes, they are more like skeletons than humans.”
To make the march easier, all worn down horses were killed and eaten, and all heavy weapons and non-essential equipment were buried or burned, lest the Turks get them. The skeleton army finally arrived in Buda, led by their king—barefooted, singing Christian hymns, and brandishing more captured Islamic banners. After receiving a hero’s welcome, they fell to their knees and gave thanks for their victories in the main cathedral.
“This march of the crusaders,” historian Patrick Balfour correctly observes, “was a military feat seldom paralleled in history.” It is now known as “the Long Campaign,” as the Christian army was in nonstop action for more than six months—most of which was in winter and hundreds of miles deep into enemy territory—at a time when campaigns usually lasted no more than two months and rarely went past fall. It consisted of seven major battles, all Christian victories.
Reflecting on what had originally seemed as Hunyadi’s “insane strategy” of taking the war to the much stronger enemy, Romanian historian Camil Mureșanu writes,
He was aware of the plans of conquest of the Ottomans and understood that limiting himself to defense meant to expose the country to constant incursions and plunders and to harassment that would eventually lead to exhaustion. That is why he preferred to take the offensive, involving deep penetration into enemy territory, to defeat the adversary decisively on his own territory, thus putting an end to the war that had been going on, with interruptions, for more than half a century. His preference for the offensive was also justified by the support that he was certain he would find in Ottoman lands from the subject [Christian] populations: Romanians, Serbians, Bulgarians, who were waiting for help to come from the north for their liberation. At any rate, “never had the Muslims suffered so much from the cunning and malice of the gâvur [infidels],” wrote a Turkish chronicler ceoncerning the Long Campaign. Not only was “the Ottoman world terrified”—with Muslim cities everywhere hunkering down and refortifying themselves—but even the Mamluk sultan in distant Egypt across the Mediterranean made preparations “to defend Cairo if they heard that John Hunyadi entered Asia Minor.”
The coming years would decide much.
*This article was adapted from Raymond Ibrahim’s recent book, Defenders of the West: The Christian Heroes Who Stood Against Islam. All quotes are sourced there.

Nagorno-Karabakh: The Broader Implications
MARC PIERINI/Carnegie./September30/2023
Beyond the tragedy of the Armenians, many countries in the region and internationally have a stake in what happens in the territory.
September 29, 2023
News channels have shown the desperate exodus of many of the 120,000 Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians to Armenia. Azerbaijan, with Turkey’s vocal support and the indirect backing of Russia, seems determined to erase any Armenian presence in these highlands, despite its assurances to the contrary. American and European diplomats have issued statements, called leaders, and coordinated their positions, but the bottom line is that the residents of Nagorno-Karabakh feel abandoned by the international community and do not see that they have a future in their ancestral land. Beyond the humanitarian crisis and the decades-long historical background, today’s crisis also has multiple international ramifications.
Not too far from the surface is Russia’s rivalry with the West. Moscow dislikes intensely so-called “color revolutions,” and Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s rise to power in 2018 was a consequence of one that occurred that year in Armenia. Pashinyan took office peacefully through elections, and even won a snap election after a crushing military defeat against Azerbaijan in late 2020. For Moscow, he represents a successful version of Alex Navalny, the Russian opposition figure, and any domestic political trouble for Pashinyan is music to the Kremlin’s ears.
In addition, neither Russia nor Turkey would welcome mediation by the United States or the European Union in the current Nagorno-Karabakh crisis. This makes Armenia’s standing weaker, despite the fact that it enjoys strong Western political support. U.S. governmental visits to Armenia and Azerbaijan, or the EU initiatives to convene top advisers from Armenia and Azerbaijan in Brussels have not resulted in specific advances so far.
Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Baku’s unconditional ally, is surfing the wave of a successful reelection last May, and sees two opportunities of historical importance in the current crisis. First, he wants to erase the thorny issue of the Armenian presence in Nagorno-Karabakh from the international agenda. Erdoğan is already calling Azerbaijan’s “historic victory” a “source of pride” for Turkey. Second, he hopes to create a land corridor between Azerbaijan, its Nakhichevan exclave, and Turkey itself, thus simultaneously reunifying Azerbaijan and creating territorial continuity between Turkey and the Turkish-speaking republics of Central Asia, an achievement that would be emblematic of the Turkish president’s revamped foreign policy. The so-called Zangezur corridor is, unsurprisingly, opposed by Armenia and Iran. Should it be constructed, the issue of its control would become one of the thorniest dimensions of the regional crisis. Israel, too, is keeping a watchful eye on the region, given its strong political and military alliance with Azerbaijan. This translated into the supply of attack drones and satellite data during the 2020 war against Armenia, two decisive assets in Baku’s victory at the time. Israel’s diplomatic and military relationship with Azerbaijan is the closest so far with a Muslim country, and constitutes a vehicle to reinforce the Israeli position against Iran in case of a possible confrontation.
Finally, the European Union finds itself in an awkward position with Azerbaijan after the signature in July 2022 of a memorandum of understanding on gas sales. This agreement was designed to lessen Europe’s dependency on Russian gas and rely on Baku as a “more reliable, trustworthy partner.” The deal, which had been criticized because it runs against the EU objective of eliminating gas from its energy mix (admittedly, not easy to achieve in the short term), now appears to be a powerful Azerbaijani lever with which to pressure Brussels.
While humanitarian assistance is already on its way, post-humanitarian assistance to Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh is the next priority. Armenia will have a hard time finding help for, and funding, the arrival of 60,000 to 120,000 people. This will include housing for the winter, schooling for children, healthcare for all, not to mention income-generating jobs. Such a situation could feed domestic political infighting in Armenia. The problem is colossal for a country the size of Armenia, but expertise and money are available in Western countries, the only potential providers of such help. This should be the subject of an urgent, detailed, and scalable agreement between the EU and the United States on the one side and the Armenian authorities on the other. Whatever happens diplomatically, Western powers have a duty to protect Armenian refugees from a harsh winter.
On the diplomatic front, it is far from certain that U.S. and European efforts will produce positive results in the weeks to come. The main reason is that the military assault and political initiative launched on September 19 by Azerbaijan, with Turkey’s help and Russia’s consent, illustrates the common goal of the leaders of the three countries: preventing Western powers from playing a role to reinforce lasting peace and coexistence in the South Caucasus.
It seems clear that Baku views this as “payback time” with regard to the Armenians, that Ankara wants to seize the occasion to pursue its pan-Turkic foreign policy and assert its regional leadership, and that Moscow aims to weaken Pashinyan and maintain Russia’s strong presence in Armenia—a military base, border guards, and infrastructure. Moscow also would like to push back against any significant Western presence in the country. Analysts fear that lasting peace is a distant prospect, as implementing a peace agreement requires solid international backing and monitoring, short of which further violence might occur.
The European Council’s debate on October 6 in Granada will be influenced by three things. First, the overwhelming priority of maintaining support for Ukraine against Russia’s aggression. Second, finding common ground among its own members over Armenia (Hungary being the odd country out, as underlined by Azerbaijan’s state news agency ). And third, producing a balanced and effective policy mix between humanitarian actions and more general measures on gas supplies, a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and associated security guarantees. The July 2022 memorandum may be a major impediment to future EU action. Ultimately, the Nagorno-Karabakh crisis will turn out to be another test of the Russian-Western rivalry and the European Union’s credibility in global affairs.
*Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

A New Armenian Trauma Unfolds
ARAZ BEDROSS/Carnegie./September30/2023
The situation in Nagorno-Karabakh has revived memories of exile and pain in the diaspora community of Lebanon.
Life in the shadow of genocide can mean a shattered, even terrifying, existence. For many Armenians, it meant exile after the massacres of 1915, living in poverty as guests in lands not theirs, facing the daily humiliation of being dependent. I lost my roots from my mother’s side when her family fled Adana and settled in Lebanon after the genocide. And now, in light of the Armenian defeat in Nagorno-Karabakh, or what Armenians call Artsakh, I have also lost roots on my father’s side.
I remember how my father used to proudly say that our family was from Akna, or Aghdam in today’s Azerbaijan. It was said that many intellectuals lived in Akna. In the First Century B.C., during the reign of Tigranes the Great, the fortress city of Tigranakert was built in the district of Akna. During the Armenian-Tatar Massacres of 1905–1907 between Caucasian Tatars and Armenians, violent clashes took place in Akna, forcing my grandparents to leave for Agin, in Turkey. They settled there with the hope of a new beginning, and my grandfather opened a horseshoe business. However, during the Armenian genocide, he lost his parents and fled again, this time to Musa Ler, or Musa Dagh, in southern Turkey, before taking the long road to Lebanon, where he settled in the neighborhood of Ain al-Mreisseh. He arrived with his six brothers, all of whom decided to continue their journey to Europe, leaving him alone in the country.
The connection between my grandfather and his six brothers was lost forever, and I still wonder how many cousins I have whom I’ve never met. I can only imagine how beautiful Akna was, with green landscapes and a fortress built on a mountain, surrounded by ancient stones. The air must have been very clean to breathe and the water refreshing to drink, with people on horses riding by peacefully.
In 1921, my father was born in Beirut. As a descendant of survivors of the Armenian genocide, I never thought I would be witness to another major trauma of the Armenian people. Tens of thousands of Armenians, from a population of around 120,000, have been forced out of Artsakh after a nine-month blockade and Azerbaijan’s offensive of September 19–20. Azerbaijan has randomly bombed civilians and is ethnically cleansing Artsakh’s Armenian population. We are living 1915 all over again. Armenian homes are being torn down, and our culture is being rapidly erased in a very brutal way.
Artsakh holds a very sentimental place for all Armenians in the diaspora. It is in the hearts of all Lebanese Armenians who fled the genocide of 1915. As a child I remember the letters we used to send to children in Artsakh to show solidarity, the funds we would gather to help Artsakh remain Armenian and maintain its rich history and monuments, its churches and museums. Now all has been lost. Azerbaijan has disregarded international condemnation, not to mention SOS alerts from the Lemkin Institute for Genocide Prevention warning of the risk of genocide. The world once again has failed the Armenians. When you see a mother having to bury two of her sons, aged eight and ten, and struggling to transport their bodies to do so in Armenia; when you see children writing their names on the walls of their homes so that something will remain of them after they leave, you can understand better what cruelty means. This is what hell must be like. I didn’t have the privilege of being be born in my ancestors’ lands, but I do have a vase that belonged to my grandmother. During my childhood I would frequently see her crying and praying in front of that vase. I remember thinking how strange the scene was. During my teenage years, my mother would light a candle before the vase every morning and have a conversation with it, as if it could hear her agony. Now, looking at that vase, I understand my mother and grandmother. The vase contains soil from Artsakh, and it has become a part of my home, my heritage, and my identity. It is the only thing close to my heart that I can pass on to my children. On the monument near Stepanakert depicting tatik-papik, the grandmother and grandfather of Artsakh, there is the line, “We Are Our Mountains.” This story is not over. We will meet again tatik and papik, among those mountains.
*Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

How to Stop Iraqi Kurdistan’s “Bleeding”
Bilal Wahab/The Washington Institute/September 30/2023
Federal pressure and disastrous internal missteps have brought the KRG to the brink, raising the need for more active U.S. mediation.
In a recent letter to President Biden that was soon reinforced by three U.S. lawmakers, Prime Minister Masrour Barzani of Iraq’s Kurdistan Regional Government expressed his alarm over the region’s survival. Noting that the KRG is “bleeding economically and hemorrhaging politically,” he laid the blame on Baghdad’s “dishonorable campaign” against Erbil. Barzani has a point—federal authorities have indeed been undoing the KRG’s hard-won autonomy in the years since the Islamic State fell and the Kurds launched an unsuccessful independence bid. Most notably, Baghdad has recentralized policymaking in the capital and blocked Kurdish oil exports amid a decade-old dispute over energy management. Yet Barzani’s narrative does not tell the whole story. The United States has long supported Iraqi Kurdistan’s autonomy, security, and development, fostering greater stability and pro-American sentiment. At the same time, however, Washington has overlooked the KRG’s vulnerabilities—namely, the internal divisions, corruption, and democratic backsliding that have diminished Erbil’s reliability and brought on the current existential crisis. The United States has a strategic interest in continuing to promote a stable and prosperous KRG, but it cannot do so without addressing the region’s internal problems.
A Multipronged Push…
After the KRG’s ill-fated independence referendum in 2017, Baghdad dramatically accelerated its efforts to erode the region’s autonomy—partly through military action, with significant help from Iran and Turkey (see below). The Shia political camp behind the current government of Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani also holds a grudge against the main Kurdish parties for complicating its gradual takeover following the 2021 election. Power has since tipped definitively in Baghdad’s favor, with the Federal Supreme Court (FSC), parliament, and Iran-backed militias siding against the KRG on oil issues and steadily weakening its authority. For instance, officials in Erbil have cited half a dozen FSC cases since 2017 that rolled back the KRG’s constitutional rights. In February 2022, the region’s oil and gas industry was ruled illegal. A year later, Ankara closed its pipeline to northern Iraq after losing to Baghdad in arbitration, halting KRG oil exports that first began flowing in 2014. The KRG has lost $5 billion in revenue since the pipeline closed, along with precious bargaining power in Baghdad. Its oil and gas facilities have also been hit repeatedly by militia rocket attacks. In addition, the FSC and parliament recently derailed a budget deal between Prime Ministers Sudani and Barzani, citing the KRG’s lack of financial transparency. As a result, Erbil has been unable to pay public salaries for three months—a stark contrast to its aspirations for independence just a few years back. Some politicians in Baghdad are also seeking to shut down the region’s diplomatic outposts in up to fourteen countries.
On top of militia violence, the KRG is also under attack from its neighbors Turkey and Iran, who have intensified their drone and missile strikes against armed Kurdish opposition groups. When Turkish officials visited Iraq last month, they did not pledge to end these attacks or resolve the oil dispute; instead, they pressured the KRG to cooperate against Ankara’s domestic nemesis, the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). Iran has issued a similar warning: disarm local Iranian Kurdish groups that oppose the regime in Tehran or face broader military intervention. Thus cornered, the KRG has let Iraqi border guards take over from the Peshmerga—a decision that had the side effect of surrendering half the region’s customs revenue to the federal government.
...Against a House Divided
Rather than uniting to withstand Baghdad’s escalating encroachment, the two main Kurdish parties, led by the Barzani and Talabani families, have been locked in a bitter struggle for power and resources, using politics in Baghdad, Ankara, and Tehran to undermine each other. This has made the KRG less secure and less capable of protecting its rights, essentially squandering Erbil’s democratic credentials among its people and U.S. officials. The two parties are now in a state of cold war, behaving as foes rather than coalition partners.
Internally, they failed to hold KRG elections in October 2022 as scheduled, opting to extend their term instead—a move that the FSC rejected as illegal. Without a valid electoral commission, the KRG has forfeited its ability to organize local polls in preparation for the new target date of February 2024, ceding that power to Baghdad. On the economic front, the KRG has neglected investment opportunities and wasted its oil money on public jobs and pensions, mostly for ruling party loyalists. The result is a huge and costly bureaucracy—in a region of 5.5 million people, the KRG has an astounding 1.4 million employees and pensioners on its rolls at a cost of $750 million per month. Notwithstanding the need for austerity measures on that front, the KRG cannot pay these individuals in the immediate term without oil revenue and must fall back on Baghdad’s national budget. As such, the KRG’s dream of independence is now a fight for survival, and the angry public has reacted with protests. Erbil has cracked down on this dissent, and some Kurdish parliamentarians have called for expelling the U.S. consul-general for criticizing the KRG’s record on human rights.
Washington’s Role
In 2016, Congress mandated that the Pentagon dispense $20 million per month for Peshmerga salaries to help stave off instability and encourage security reform. In return, Erbil promised to bring the mostly partisan force back under unified command and away from the two ruling parties. Seven years later, however, only a third of its estimated 160,000 fighters report to the KRG’s Ministry of Peshmerga Affairs, a body that has been without a minister for a year due to continued political infighting.
Washington cannot afford to let the KRG or the rest of Iraq slide into chaos or conflict. As elections approach, the risk of ethnic violence looms—the recent deadly clashes in Kirkuk are a warning shot in that regard. The threat of an Islamic State comeback is also real if coalition and Iraqi forces ease pressure on the group, as U.S. officials readily acknowledge. Washington therefore needs to reengage with the Kurdish and Iraqi governments, not as a passive advisor but as an active mediator and guarantor. In particular, it should help Kurdish factions reunite, reassert their voice in Baghdad, and regain their public’s confidence. This includes using lessons learned from the end of the Kurdish civil war in 1998 to mediate between the Kurdish parties today. Earlier this month, Prime Minister Barzani and Deputy Prime Minister Qubad Talabani paid a joint visit to Baghdad and secured a loan for KRG salaries; Washington should take follow-on steps that support such collective efforts. Finally, Prime Minister Sudani’s expected White House meeting with President Biden needs to include high-level KRG representation. This would signal that the United States recognizes the Kurds as essential partners in federal Iraq’s future. More broadly, by helping the Kurds help themselves, Washington can put a floor on the KRG’s losses and secure the region’s long-term interests in a stable, democratic Iraq.
*Bilal Wahab is the Wagner Fellow at The Washington Institute.

Yemen’s “Southern Hezbollah” Celebrates Coup Anniversary in Deadly Fashion
Michael Knights, Farzin Nadimi/The Washington Institute/September 30/2023
Ending the war and facilitating other U.S.-Saudi diplomatic tracks is crucial, but neither goal will be served by turning a blind eye to the Houthis’ latest jumps in militarization.
On September 25, a Houthi drone attack on the Saudi side of the border with Yemen killed two Bahraini servicemen operating there as part of the Saudi-led coalition. A third soldier died from his wounds two days later. In addition to outraging Bahrain, the attack violated a ceasefire that has more or less held since August 2022 despite periodic Houthi drone and ground attacks.
Notably, the incident came just days after the Iran-backed Houthis staged a large-scale military display in Sanaa to celebrate the ninth anniversary of their 2014 coup against the UN-recognized government. The September 21 show of strength included their first flight demonstration of a restored fighter jet, as well as new Iranian-designed ballistic missiles that were constructed despite a UN arms embargo and are claimed to be capable of reaching as far as Israel.
These developments serve as a warning that the Houthis are building up their strength for additional probes of Yemeni and Gulf resolve at the exact moment that the United States, Europe, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates are pressuring the remnants of the UN-backed government to make peace on terms dictated by the Houthis. The international desire for peace at all costs—while understandable—must be balanced with a willingness to deter and, if need be, contain future Houthi aggression.
Houthi Military-Technical Achievements
Although the flashy appearance of a 1970s-era F-5 fighter flying over Sanaa may have grabbed eyeballs, the true headline of last week’s military display was the implied increase in Houthi missile range and accuracy. All the visible evidence indicates an uptick in Iranian involvement toward the ultimate goal of bringing the group’s capabilities at least on par with those of Lebanese Hezbollah rather than a lower-tier proxy (though the Lebanese group tends to be more cautious about displaying some of its systems, likely due to fear of Israeli interdiction).
New medium-range ballistic missile. Well before the Houthi coup, Yemen was known to have purchased Scud-type Hwasong-5 and -6 missiles from North Korea between 1999 and 2002, in a secret deal exposed in December 2002 after a U.S.-Spanish naval group seized and later released a North Korean cargo ship carrying fifteen missiles, fuel, and warheads for Yemen. Yet the country was never known to purchase larger, longer-range Hwasong-7/Nodong-1 missiles—the same type paraded by the Houthis last week under the name Toophan (Storm), sporting a triconic warhead section reminiscent of Iran’s Ghadr ballistic missiles, which have a range of 2,000 km and are derived from the Hwasong-7/Shahab-3. A Shahab-3 engine was also displayed, perhaps to prove that the Houthi missile was not a mock-up. If launched from relatively secure cave shelters near Sanaa, this weapon could technically reach southern and even central Israel.
Other missiles. Also on display were a wide selection of shorter-range (250-700 km) solid-propellant missiles. The Karrar appears to be a locally manufactured version of Iran’s Fateh-110, while the Tankil (Ravager) stems from Iran’s Khalij-e Fars (300 km), with a shorter and probably wider body to improve flight characteristics and therefore accuracy.
Sea denial systems. The parade included two other siblings of Iran’s Khalij-e Fars electro-optically-guided antiship ballistic missile—the Asef (300 km range) and Falaq (200 km)—with imaging nose seekers in their nose that enable them to track a moving maritime target in its terminal phase. Also on display were a range of lower-tier but important Qods cruise missiles of the type fielded by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), as well as al-Mandab-1 antiship missiles (a copy of the Chinese C-801) and various sea mines and explosive drone boats, all of which fill out the Houthis’ antiaccess/area-denial (A2AD) capability in the strategic Bab al-Mandab Strait.
Indoctrinating a New Generation of Fighters
The parade also attempted to impress adversaries with a show of manpower. The Houthi-controlled SABA news agency claimed that “around 35,000 from various military formations participated in the military parade, from the war and naval colleges, the aviation college, the air force, land and navy, air and coastal defense, special forces, military police, and al-Fath brigades” (the latter being a newer body with no pre-Houthi history). Indeed, the Houthis are militarizing the population on a scale hitherto unseen in Yemen, which hardly suggests a readiness to accept peace.
General Mobilization Authority (GMA). This new arm of the Defense Ministry has mobilized an estimated 130,000 recruits from the poorer segments of society, for whom even the minimal salary of around $30 per month is preferable to complete poverty.
The Houthi Jihad Preparation Official (aka the Official of the Central Committee for Recruitment and Mobilization). This post operates under the GMA’s formal cover and is held by GMA chief Abdul Rahim al-Humran. Under his direction, various Houthi governorate supervisors, “neighborhood affairs managers,” and “neighborhood sheikhs” comb households for military-age males and maintain an updated military human resources system.
Houthi Basij Logistics and Support Brigades. This is a parallel mobilization reserve force run by the Jihad Preparation Official and akin to Iran’s Basij forces. These brigades are being developed by Qasim al-Humran (aka Abu Kawthar), who previously oversaw the Ministry of Youth and Sports.
Child soldiers. As analyst Gregory Johnsen recently noted, “it is the Houthis who are—by far—the biggest producers of child soldiers in Yemen.” Citing the UN Panel of Experts on Yemen, he wrote that even during the ceasefire, the Houthis have continued “with the indoctrination, recruitment and, in some instances, military training of children,” using tools such as militarized summer camps, popular radio chants, and textbooks and public posters that glamorize child “martyrs.”
In other words, the Houthis are replicating IRGC and Hezbollah methods of militarizing their society and creating the infrastructure for permanent mobilization. More than ever, the Houthi military is an ideologically brainwashed force: its “Spiritual Guidance Department” has now been active for almost a decade, and its younger soldiers were just small children when the Houthis seized Sanaa in 2014. Many likely cannot remember a time before Houthi propaganda, which to this day is headlined by the slogan “Death to America, Death to Israel, Curse the Jews, Victory to Islam.” Tellingly, this slogan was printed on the side of the aging, U.S.-made Yemeni jet that the Houthis flew over their parade, one of many weapons systems bearing those words.
Implications for U.S. Policy
Ending the Yemen war is important to U.S. policymakers, not just to stop a destructive conflict, but also to remove a major bilateral complication at a moment when Washington and Riyadh are discussing the potential conditions for an Israeli normalization deal and deeper U.S.-Saudi defense commitments. If a more comprehensive and binding bilateral security agreement emerges, the United States and Saudi Arabia must both be prepared to develop a broad deterrent and threat reduction strategy that can prevent further expansion of Houthi missile, drone, antishipping, and ground warfare capabilities.
In addition to ensuring a fair peace deal in Yemen, this means taking concrete steps to enforce the UN arms embargo and prevent destabilizing shifts in the military balance of power that could restart the war. These include:
Enhancing maritime intercept operations. Now that the Houthis are claiming to field a medium-range ballistic missile capable of reaching Israel, authorities must contend with the likelihood that guidance systems, engines, and large liquid-fuel tanks are still being transferred to them despite the embargo. Yet any estimate of Houthi missile capability and sustainability will depend on what percentage of those weapons are produced in Yemen.
Sanctioning Houthi leaders for a wider range of violations, from missile/drone proliferation to “jihad preparation” efforts and the mobilization of child soldiers.
Sharing U.S. intelligence with Israel in support of efforts to diminish any long-range missile capabilities in Houthi-held Yemen. For instance, industrial sabotage operations could target materiel such as liquid-fuel systems and storage, while other efforts could focus on Iranian and Hezbollah missile technicians.
Seeking a UN block on direct air freight and passenger flights between Yemen and Lebanon, Iran, Syria, and Iraq.
*Michael Knights is the Bernstein Fellow at The Washington Institute and cofounder of its Militia Spotlight platform. Farzin Nadimi is a senior fellow with the Institute, specializing in the military and security affairs of the Persian Gulf region.