Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on July 14-15/2023
Tripartite committee to tackle border tensions amid no US role
Naharnet/July 14/2023
The latest border tensions between Lebanon and Israel will be addressed by the Tripartite committee that comprises representatives of the Lebanese and Israeli armies and the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), a media report said on Friday. “Military confrontation has been ruled out, until the moment, as long as communication channels remain open through the U.N. to end the problem of the border violations,” Asharq al-Awsat newspaper said. “No indications of a U.S. interference or mediation in the dispute over the land border have appeared and the limited U.S. efforts have not exceeded urging commitment to the applicable tracks, including through UNIFIL, to address any tensions resulting from the latest crisis,” the daily added. The U.S. has called for “consolidating stability and preventing any provocations on the two sides of the border,” the newspaper noted. Speculation in Lebanon had surged following a visit to Tel Aviv by U.S. energy adviser Amos Hochstein. But Deputy Speaker Elias Bou Saab denied his knowledge of any U.S. mediation in the land border file, stressing to Asharq al-Awsat that “neither the Americans have proposed mediating nor Lebanon has requested any U.S. effort in this file.”Lebanese sources meanwhile denied that former General Security chief Maj. Gen. Abbas Ibrahim is carrying out any negotiations with the U.S. side, noting that Ibrahim has not been tasked by any side with communicating with the Americans in this file. Al-Akhbar newspaper meanwhile quoted diplomatic sources as saying that “the Americans have informed Lebanese officials that the U.S. administration is preoccupied with other files and does not see in the situation dangerousness that requires rapid action.” “The Israeli government has not also requested a mediation to resolve the issue of the land border with Lebanon,” the daily added. Hochstein’s talks in Israel “are not related to this file,” al-Akhbar quoted an official source as saying. “The latter visited Tel Aviv days ago as part of a mission related to the U.S. efforts for finalizing a normalization deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia, and he has been tasked with this mission alongside his work in the energy sector. He is also interested in contacts aimed at pacifying things between Israel and the Palestinian Authority,” the source added.

Beyond the Blue Line: Lebanon's reservations in border demarcation
LBCI/July 14/2023
Lebanon has identified and preserved 13 points during the border demarcation process, as referred to by the Lebanese Army, which took place after the Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon on May 25, 2000. This demarcation process is commonly known as the "Blue Line," extending from Naqoura to the outskirts of the town of Al-Mari, next to the Syrian town of Al-Ghajar. These points are categorized into two sections by the Lebanese Army: The first section, called "Basket A" by the Army, includes points extending up to 25 meters into Lebanese territory. Notable points in this section include Ras Naqoura (also known as B1), Alma Al-Shaab, Al-Bustan, Marwahin, Yaroun, Meiss Al-Jabal, KfarKel;l, and Adaisseh. The second section, named "Basket B" by the Lebanese Army, comprises points that extend more than 25 meters into Lebanese territory. These points are situated in Alma Al-Shaab, Rmeish, Blida, Adaisseh, and Mtolleh al-Wazani. In 2017, during meetings held in Naqoura under the auspices of international forces, an agreement was reached to address seven of the 13 reserved points. The resolution of issues adjacent to the settlement of Meskfaam was of utmost importance.Following the completion of maritime border demarcation in October, the United States and the United Nations emphasized the need for a comprehensive resolution to the remaining reservations. While this stance was conveyed to the Lebanese Army, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri reportedly declined to proceed with the process, citing the absence of a president as a prerequisite. However, Hezbollah agreed to resume the operation, which is now being facilitated by UNIFIL (United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon), focusing on resolving these reservations, notably point B1 at Ras Naqoura, where the Israeli breach extends 17 meters and half a meter to the north. A decisive tripartite meeting is scheduled in Naqoura on Monday to address the reservations at the six remaining points. Discussions will also be held regarding the situation in Al-Mari and Syria's Al-Ghajar, as well as Hezbollah's tents in the hills of Kfarshuba. The Lebanese side will reiterate its readiness to conclude the reservations file, observing the Israeli response after previous delays, which may change with the visit of US envoy Amos Hochstein, currently in Israel. Moreover, some sources indicated that any agreement on the 13 reservations would only be announced upon its final completion and implementation on the ground, with the coordinates of the adjustments sent to the United Nations.

Le Drian dialogue: Who would attend it and where?
Naharnet/July 14/2023 
It is still not known where Lebanese parties would meet to hold a dialogue that French Envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian might call for or what the dialogue's agenda would be. The dialogue might be held at the Pine Residence, al-Akhbar newspaper said Friday, despite Speaker Nabih Berri's wish for it to be held in parliament, which is still probable, especially according to Ain el-Tineh sources. The sources told al-Akhbar that what is being discussed is how France will participate in the dialogue and whether a French representative would attend it without heading the dialogue sessions. "We have set up the dialogue table in parliament. We prefer that it be held there, knowing that the French have proposed holding it at the Pine Residence, while some have suggested that it be held outside Lebanon," Berri's visitors had quoted him as saying earlier this week.
Who will attend the dialogue
Heads of parliamentary blocs will participate in the dialogue, sources said, which means that many party leaders would not necessarily participate. Berri himself had reportedly said that he would not attend the dialogue, but he would be represented by a member of his bloc. On Thursday, Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea said he would not waste time on a vain dialogue with Hezbollah and asked Le Drian not to call for dialogue. But informed sources told al-Akhbar that the Lebanese Forces bloc might participate if all parties agree on holding a dialogue that would also be supported by Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi.

FPM hoping to agree with Hezbollah on 'third candidate'
Naharnet/July 14/2023 
The Free Patriotic Movement is hoping to agree with Hezbollah on a presidential candidate other than Suleiman Franjieh or Jihad Azour, an FPM MP said. “Dialogue means an intention to meet with the other over something that satisfies both parties, and therefore agreeing on a third candidate,” MP Cesar Abi Khalil told Asharq al-Awsat newspaper, after the two parties announced that they have resumed dialogue. “The resumption of the dialogue with Hezbollah comes without preconditions and it is not over a certain candidate, but rather over a program and over a figure which would not be provocative to any party,” the lawmaker added. Pro-Hezbollah political analyst Qassem Qassir meanwhile told Asharq al-Awsat that “the resumption of dialogue between the FPM and Hezbollah took place through an agreement on a new vision based on proposing a host of names, including Franjieh, for discussion.”

Bassil calls for protests, diplomatic action against EU refugee decision
Naharnet/July 14/2023
Free Patriotic Movement chief Jebran Bassil called Friday on Lebanese authorities to take diplomatic measures against a decision by the European parliament to keep Syrian refugees in Lebanon. "It is Lebanon fault," Bassil said as he accused Lebanese officials of "negligence". Two days ago, the European Parliament voted overwhelmingly in favor of a resolution supporting the continued presence of Syrian refugees in Lebanon. "Conditions are not met for the voluntary, dignified return of refugees in conflict-prone areas in Syria," the European Parliament's resolution text said. "I urge the Foreign Ministry to take diplomatic measures immediately," Bassil said. "I also urge parliament to respond with a clear decision that would bind the government to start organizing a safe and dignified repatriation."Bassil also called for a peaceful protest that would press for that. Many other politicians had condemned the EU resolution, including the minister of the displaced and MPs from different Lebanese parties. MP Faisal Karameh, Amal MP Qassem Hashem, Democratic Gathering bloc MP Bilal Abdallah, Free Patriotic Movement MP Simon Abi Ramia and former MP Amal Abou Zeid, considered the decision as an interference in national affairs. The Lebanese Forces also condemned it. "Lebanon can no longer bear the refugee burden," the LF said in a statement.

British Embassy hosts round-table for women economists to discuss IMF report
Naharnet/July 14/2023
The British Embassy in Beirut said Friday that it has hosted a round-table for women economists and colleagues from the International Monetary Fund to discuss Lebanon’s 2023 Article IV Consultation report. IMF’s Resident Representative in Lebanon, Frederico Lima, gave a summary of the last report which was issued few weeks ago. Open and honest discussions followed from the attendees highlighting the immense challenges facing Lebanon’s economy. Addressing the women economists, the British Embassy’s Political Counsellor, Gavin Tench, said in his opening remarks “As women economists, you make the discussion richer. Your inclusion is essential to unlock new solutions, share new ideas and drive positive change. Lebanon needs all of its brain power involved to bring change.”All conferees recognised the importance of the IMF report in providing a roadmap and underlining the rising cost of inaction and that all those involved must work together to forge a path towards economic stability and sustainable growth. All conferees agreed that reforms are key to get Lebanon back on the right path including re-gaining international trust.

Postponement of court sessions in Tleil-Akkar explosion and the terrorist bombing of the army checkpoint in Hermel
LBCI/July 14, 2023
The Judicial Council convened on Friday under the chairmanship of Chief Justice Souheil Abboud and the membership of advisory judges: Jamal Hajjar, Afif Hakim, Jean-Marc Oueiss, and Maya Majed. The session was attended by Judge Mirna Kallas, representing the Public Prosecutor's Office, and it focused on two consecutive sessions dedicated to the case of the fuel tank explosion in the town of Tleil in Akkar and the terrorist attack against an army checkpoint in the Jisr Al-Assi area in Hermel. In the first session, which was dedicated to the Tleil explosion, the prosecuting party was represented by lawyers Mohammad Mourad, Zeina Masri, and Charbel Arab. The defense was represented by lawyers Sakhr Al-Hachem, Ali Achmar, Jocelyne Al-Rahi, and Laurent Salameh. Those released on bail attended, including H. Assad, B. Assad, B. Ibrahim, and K. Ibrahim. Due to the unavailability of detainees and the need to complete interrogations, the Judicial Council decided to adjourn the session until September 29. Then, the council proceeded with the first public trial session for the terrorist explosion that targeted an army checkpoint in Jisr Al-Aasi in Hermel, claiming the lives of two military personnel, one of whom was a captain, and a civilian who happened to be present at the checkpoint. Lawyer Youssef Saad Roufail represented the prosecuting party, and the defense was represented by lawyers Aliya Shalha and Jocelyne Al-Rahi. The delegate of the victims, Nisrine Farhat, attended as two of the defendants, one of whom is a minor. Documents were submitted to the council regarding the defendants A. Atrash, S. Hajjiri, A. Karim, S. Hajjiri, S. Sultan, and B. Hajjiri, indicating they had passed away. The council requested verification of this incident from the Public Prosecution. A grace period was granted for several defendants, and the session was adjourned until October 13. It is worth noting that the terrorist explosion against the army checkpoint was caused by a four-wheel-drive car that was being pursued by the army. The suicide bomber detonated himself upon being apprehended by the checkpoint's personnel, leading to the martyrdom of Captain Elias Al-Khoury, Sergeant Hamza Al-Faytrouni, and civilian Mohammad Deeb Ayoub, as well as the injury of 18 individuals, both civilians and military personnel. The incident also resulted in significant material damage to public and private properties. The explosion occurred on February 22, 2014, and the examining magistrate, Judge Sabouh Al-Hajj Suleiman, issued his accusatory decision in the case on December 14, 2021.

Ghajar: New point of worry amid broader unrest
Associated Press/July 14, 2023
The little village of Ghajar has been a sore point between Israel and Lebanon for years, split in two by the border between Lebanon and the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. But after a long period of calm, the dispute has begun to heat up again. Israel has been building a wall around the half of the village in Lebanese territory, triggering condemnation from Hezbollah, accusing Israel of moving to annex the site. A recent exchange of fire in the area raised alarm that the dispute could trigger violence.
The growing tensions over Ghajar add to the jitters along the Lebanese-Israeli border, where Israel and Hezbollah fought a destructive 34-day war in the summer of 2006. The two sides have studiously avoided outright battle ever since, despite frequent flare-ups of tension -- but each constantly says a new conflict could erupt at any time. The dispute over a small village in the green hills where Lebanon, Israel and Syria meet brings a new point of worry amid broader unrest. The West Bank has seen increased bloodshed the past week, with a major two-day offensive that Israel says targeted Palestinian militants. Within Israel, moves by the hard-right government to overhaul the judicial system have sparked large anti-government protests. "This is Lebanese land, not Israeli," said Lebanese shepherd Ali Yassin Diab, pointing to the half of Ghajar being enclosed by the Israeli wall as he grazed his sheep and goats nearby. Members of the U.N. peacekeeping force UNIFIL watched from a distance. In the early 2000s, Yassin used to take his herds to drink at a pond there but has since been cut off. The village's division is an unusual byproduct of the decades of conflict.
Ghajar was once part of Syria but was captured by Israel in the 1967 Mideast war as part of Syria's Golan Heights, which Israel occupied and later annexed, with little world recognition.
In the 1980s and 1990s, Ghajar's population expanded north into nearby Lebanese territory, held by Israel in its 18-year occupation of southern Lebanon. When Israel withdrew from Lebanon in May 2000, U.N. surveyors delineating temporary borders ruled that Ghajar's northern part was in Lebanon, its southern part in the Golan, dividing it in two. Six years later, Israeli troops moved into the northern part of Ghajar during the Israel-Hezbollah war. They have occupied it since and a fence was installed preventing people from entering it from Lebanon. Under the truce that ended the 2006 fighting, Israel agreed to withdraw from Ghajar, but it wanted to clinch an arrangement to keep Hezbollah from entering the village.
In a statement to the Associated Press on Friday, the Israeli Foreign Ministry said Israel recognizes the line dividing the village in 2000 but said that following the division, "Hezbollah established itself in the village" and attempted an abduction of an Israeli soldier. Most of Ghajar's around 3,000 residents hold Israeli nationality — some of them alongside Lebanese — and they largely identify as Syrians. Last year, Israel started erecting a concrete wall around the northern part of the village. It also began encouraging Israeli tourism to the village. In its statement, the foreign ministry said that the wall "is on the same route as the fence that was in place before" around the village.
In apparent reply to the near finishing of the wall, Hezbollah set up two tents nearby, including one in the area of Chebaa Farms, which both Israel and Lebanon claim as its territory. It is not clear what is inside the tents.
Israel filed a complaint with the United Nations, claiming the tents were several dozen meters inside of Israeli territory. Hezbollah says the tents are in Lebanese territory. On Monday, UNIFIL's commander relayed an Israeli request to Lebanon's caretaker prime minister and parliament speaker to remove the tent. They responded that Israel should withdraw its troops from the Lebanese part of Ghajar, according to Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdallah Bouhabib. Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah said in a speech Wednesday night that Israel cordoned off Ghajar before Hezbollah set up its tents.
"Over the past days, it became clear that they (Israel) have annexed it," Nasrallah said. He added: "The land of Ghajar will not be left for Israel, and certainly not Chebaa Farms and Kfarshouba," another border area claimed by both countries. A female resident of Ghajar, speaking to the AP on condition of anonymity due to security concerns, said the villagers consider themselves Syrian but their main concern "is to stay in Ghajar, in this village, living in peace and security. No matter under who rules.""There is a (border) line that was drawn by the United Nations. Why are they allowed to cross it while we as Lebanese citizens cannot?" Mohammed Rammal, the mayor of the nearby Lebanese border village of Oddeissi, said of Israel's presence in Ghajar.
Last week, an anti-tank missile was fired from Lebanon near Ghajar, with some fragments landing in Lebanon and others inside Israeli territory. Israel fired shells on the outskirts of the nearby village of Kfarshouba. On Wednesday, an explosion elsewhere near the border slightly wounded at least three Hezbollah members. Nasrallah said the case is still under investigation. Late last month, Hezbollah said it shot down an Israel drone flying over a village in southern Lebanon. On Monday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with President Joe Biden's special envoy for energy, Amos Hochstein, during which they discussed "regional issues," according to the Israeli prime minister's office. Some Israeli media said Netanyahu and Hochstein, who helped last year broker a maritime border deal between Israel and Lebanon, discussed tensions along the border with Lebanon. "We continue to monitor and engage with authorities in Lebanon and Israel on the issue of Ghajar," UNIFIL spokeswoman Kandice Ardiel said. She added that UNIFIL has repeatedly called on Israel to stop its works north of the line and that Israel's occupation of northern Ghajar violates the U.N. Security Council resolution that ended the 2006 war. Israel considers Hezbollah its most serious immediate threat, estimating it has some 150,000 rockets and missiles aimed at Israel.
During a tour by an Associated Press team near Ghajar this week, more patrols by U.N. peacekeepers and the Lebanese army along the border were visible. Residents in nearby villages appeared defiant and going on with life as usual during the summer season, when many expatriates come to spend time with their families. In Lebanese media, many analysts say neither side wants a new war. But Lebanese political analyst Faisal Abdul-Sater warned that the situation is very dangerous as Israel and Hezbollah are on alert. "Whoever fires the first shot will bear the responsibility for the consequences," he said.

Lebanese turn to hiking to escape the economic gloom and ease stress
Najia Houssari/Arab News/July 14, 2023
BEIRUT:As the people of Lebanon continue to suffer the effects of a long-running economic crisis, public spaces in Beirut are increasingly plastered with posters advertising businesses and groups that offer hiking trips in the country.
The ads, complete with scenes of joyful people enjoying relaxing and stress-free adventures in the great outdoors, are widely shared on social media. It is perhaps not surprising that many people in Lebanon are seeking refuge in nature as a respite from their worsening day-to-day economic situation, including a currency that has lost most of its value in the past four years. This prevents many from traveling abroad and, as a result, they have turned to domestic tourism for a break from the harsh realities of life, particularly rural tourism. Expatriates returning home for visits are also attracted to outdoor activities, perhaps for a dose of nostalgia after being forced to leave their country to make a descent living, especially in the past few years. But the trend began before the current crisis. Hiking has been developing as a collective activity in Lebanon for more than a decade, with young men and women forming groups and associations that cater to people with a shared interested in the activity and organize outings for them.
As well as providing a welcome escape from the stresses of daily life, their efforts have also contributed to raising awareness of environmental issues, enhancing the concept of eco and rural tourism, and helped efforts to document wildlife and preserve endangered plant species.“We have a trail that stretches 154 kilometers across Lebanon, from north to south, passing through 76 villages,” said Omar Sakr, executive director of the Lebanese Mountain Trail Association. “It reaches altitudes ranging from 600 to 2,000 meters above sea level and we have been developing it for 15 years, ever since we established our association.” The association has developed a literary-themed trail in Baskinta that includes a number of landmarks related to more than 22 Lebanese writers and poets, including Mikhail Naimy, Amin Maalouf and Abdallah Ghanem. Founded in 2007 with funding from the US Agency for International Development, the mountain trail stretches the length of the country and passes through three nature reserves, including the Bcharre Cedar Reserve and Barouk Forest. The association organizes two major hikes each year, in April and October. In addition to locals, they attract foreigners who come to the country especially to take part. The more-recently established hiking trails for people of all ages join dozens of long-established routes in the mountains. The increased attention they are bringing to environmental issues is very welcome, according to officials. “What is equivalent in importance to Lebanon’s biodiversity is sustainable economic activity,” said Nasser Yassin, the caretaker environment minister. “Despite the losses suffered by forests last year, the forest cover in Lebanon is still relatively good but we lack proper management in this field.” Hikers are advised to wear comfortable clothing that is appropriate for the conditions, including sturdy shoes to help prevent slipping and injuries on slopes and hills, and to carry one or two walking sticks to aid balance and support, especially in high, mountainous areas. “Hiking flourished during the COVID-19 pandemic as Lebanese people turned to nature, making it a trend,” said Sakr. “The increasing number of people taking up hiking is evident from the proliferation of sportswear stores selling hiking gear.
“Politics and sectarianism are prohibited while hiking. It is a national sport and that’s how we want it to be and it should be. People, while hiking, are constantly amazed every five minutes by breathtaking natural scenes with unique characteristics. “They get to experience the different accents of the villagers from one town to another and discover dishes they were not familiar with. Through mountain trails, people rediscover a cultural heritage that has been passed down through the years.” In the spring, as the snow on mountain peaks starts to melt, many hikers head for trails in areas known for their spectacular waterfalls, including Balou Balaa, Kfarhelda-Kaftoun, Jezzine Waterfall, and Al-Kfour.
During the summer, many hikers explore protected areas, rivers and lakes, such as Chouwen Lake, Yahchouch, Sirjbal, Al-Jahiliyah, Tannourine Cedar Reserve, Qadisha Valley, Bentael Reserve, Mseilha Walkway, Falougha Lakes, Assi River, Baskinta, Bcharre Cedar Reserve, Chnaniir Reserve, Shouf Cedar Reserve, Chabrouh Dam, Ammiq, Moukhtara, Ehden Forest, Qammouaa Valley, Jabal Moussa Reserve, Mtein, Qurnat es-Sawda, Sannine, Baakline-Ashqout, Bab Ouadi Jhannam, Al-Qoubaiyat, Al-Azr Forest, Aayoun Orghosh, Laqlouq, Qaraoun, and Marjayoun. “Seeing the colors of nature brings tranquility and peace to the soul and reduces the stress of work and life in Lebanon,” said Ghada, an avid hiker in her 40s. “It is a process of relaxation in nature that heals us and helps us navigate our lives with minimal obstacles.”Fellow hiker Mona, 60, said: “With every step you take, you find yourself amazed by an ancient tree, the unfamiliar chirping of a bird, a flower that grows among rocks, and the sound of fresh waterfalls transforming into rivers and streams.”She expressed surprise at the neglected state of the environment in the Akkar region. This failure to properly preserve Lebanon’s natural splendor is something that some groups and organizations are working to address. The Darb Akkar association for example, which started out by organizing hiking trips, has evolved and now undertakes environmental and scientific work. For example, its members have documented rare types of orchids, tulips and wild Basalt flowers found on the slopes of the Qurnat Es-Sawda mountains, 2,500 meters above sea level. In addition to the environmental and conservation benefits from the boom in hiking, it also gives communities along the trails the opportunity to market their products and build relationships with people from other places, potentially providing much-needed economic benefits. There are also cultural rewards.
“Through the mountain trail, we have revived the culture of our ancestors,” said Sakr. “We have established guesthouses and we now have local guides in the mountains. We have trained about 50 people to be guides. “We are working on the sustainability of this trail and we have a team that oversees the trail and its branching paths throughout the year.” Each week, Hassan, a 35-year-old hiker, eagerly plans which trail he will explore the following Sunday. “It is a mental relaxation that is missing in Beirut,” he said. “There is no comparison to the beauty of this country, the diversity of its terrains and the cultural richness of its people. “I have formed friendships with people I meet every weekend. We have become like a family, cooperating and advising each other to avoid injuries. And above all, I love the food prepared by the women in the countryside. The taste is different, in the simplest dishes, and they are most delicious.”
Of course, the increasing number of people who are descending on sometimes fragile rural environments carries some risks, especially if activities are not well planned and managed. “Sometimes chaos arises due to the increasing interest in this type of activity,” Sakr said. “This chaos is manifested in the absence of studying the environmental impact of the trails walked by the hikers and ensuring their safety.” He added many trails have been neglected over time, and the potential tourism benefits and economic opportunities have not been responsibly developed. However, the Antonine University in Lebanon recently launched a diploma program in mountain guidance and outdoor activities.

Lebanon's tourism takes off: Beirut Airport sees surge in flights, anticipates 1.8 Million arrivals
LBCI/July 14/2023
As Lebanon anticipates a busy summer, Jean Abboud, the President of the Association of Travel and Tourism Agents in Lebanon, revealed that the number of daily flights arriving at the Beirut–Rafic Hariri International Airport has reached 110, including additional flights. He mentioned, "Middle East Airlines and foreign airlines have organized extra flights during July and August." Abboud pointed out that on regular days, the airport receives around 90 to 95 planes. However, he affirmed that the number of arrivals and flights to Beirut Airport is expected to increase as the airport typically experiences higher traffic during July and August. During June, the number of arrivals at Beirut Airport reached 430,000 people. It is anticipated that the number of arrivals will reach 1.8 million during the summer, especially since the influx of visitors tends to rise in August, along with an increase in the number of additional flights by 25 percent. Abboud stated, "The number of arrivals at Beirut Airport is very high, and the relevant authorities have taken all necessary measures by increasing staff and ensuring fuel supply to accommodate the congestion."He expressed his hope that the airport would maintain its readiness as Lebanon witnesses a promising tourist season. It is expected that Arab and foreign tourists will constitute approximately 30 percent to 35 percent of the total number of arrivals.

IMF report sparks discussions at British Embassy's round-table on Lebanon's economic future
LBCI/July 14/2023
The British Embassy in Beirut recently convened a round-table discussion for women economists and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) colleagues to delve into Lebanon's 2023 Article IV Consultation report. The event served as a platform for open dialogues surrounding Lebanon's economy's profound challenges. Frederico Lima, the IMF's Resident Representative in Lebanon, delivered a comprehensive summary of the recently published report. Additionally, during the opening remarks, Gavin Tench, the British Embassy's Political Counselor, addressed the women economists and emphasized their pivotal role in enriching the discussions. Tench underscored that their inclusion was crucial in unlocking innovative solutions, sharing fresh ideas, and driving positive change. He further stressed that Lebanon required the collective brainpower of all its citizens to effect transformative progress.
The participants unanimously acknowledged the significance of the IMF report, which not only provided a roadmap for the nation's economic recovery and underscored the mounting costs of inaction. Recognizing the situation's urgency, all attendees concurred that concerted efforts were necessary to forge a path toward economic stability and sustainable growth. Furthermore, the round-table participants agreed that implementing comprehensive reforms was paramount to steering Lebanon back on track and regaining international trust.

Former Minister Choucair meets Qatari Ambassador and discusses latest developments
LBCI/July 14/2023
On Friday, the former minister, Mohammad Choucair, met with the Qatari Ambassador to Lebanon, Ibrahim bin Abdulaziz Al-Sahlawi, at the headquarters of the Beirut and Mount Lebanon Chamber, in a farewell visit during which they discussed the latest developments in the country. Choucair expressed his gratitude to Ambassador Al-Sahlawi for all his efforts during his tenure as the Qatari ambassador to Beirut in support of Lebanon and the Lebanese people during this challenging phase. He also praised the positive cooperation with Ambassador Al-Sahlawi and his support for Lebanon's participation in "Expo Qatar," thanking the neighboring State of Qatar, its leadership, and its people for their constant support for Lebanon and its people. On his part, Ambassador Al-Sahlawi acknowledged the close relationship and constructive cooperation with Choucair, affirming Qatar's continuous support for Lebanon and its standing by its side. He expressed his wishes for the swift resolution of all crises and the start of a new phase of stability and prosperity.

Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on July 14-15/2023
Cypriot official says probe backs Mossad claims that hitman plotted to kill Israelis on the island
NICOSIA, Cyprus (AP)/July 14/2023
Cyprus police investigations support claims by Israel’s Mossad spy service that an Iranian-backed hit squad planned to kill Israelis and other Jews in the east Mediterranean island nation, an official said Friday. The security official told The Associated Press that Cypriot police had tracked an Iranian national identified as Yusef Shahabazi Abbasalilu following information from “friendly intelligence services.”Subsequent probes into his activities indicated there was a plot for such killings, with at least one person on a hit list, the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the investigations. According to the official, Abbasalilu initially attempted to set up base and recruit others in the ethnically divided island’s breakaway Turkish Cypriot north, where its internationally recognized authorities have no access. Cyprus was split in 1974 when Turkey invaded following a coup by supporters of union with Greece. No country recognizes a Turkish Cypriot declaration of independence apart from Turkey, which maintains 35,000 troops in the island’s northern third. The fact that the breakaway north isn’t a part of the international legal order is a concern for domestic and foreign security services, according to the security official. Cypriot authorities were on Abbasalilu’s trail in the island’s southern part when he snuck into the north through a crossing point along the 180 km (120 mile) United Nations-controlled buffer zone. Turkish Cypriot authorities then identified him as a potential security risk and deported him to Iran.
It’s the first time that a Cypriot official has backed Mossad’s claims of the alleged plot. The Mossad said last month said that its agents inside Iran seized Abbasalilu who allegedly gave investigators a detailed “confession.” Released footage showed Abbasalilu saying on camera that he received his orders from Iran’s powerful paramilitary Revolutionary Guard Corps. Abbasalilu also said that he had scoped the target and took photos of the target’s home in Cyprus before fleeing the island. It was not clear if the man spoke under duress. Israel considers Iran its greatest enemy, citing the Iranian government’s calls for Israel’s destruction and support for hostile militant groups. It also accuses Iran of trying to develop a nuclear bomb — a claim that Iran denies. An Azeri man holding a Russian passport is on trial in Cyprus, a close Israeli ally, on suspicion that he planned to carry out the contract killings of Israelis living in Cyprus.
The Azeri man also used a similar plan of action as Abbasalilu, the intelligence official said.

Thousands protest outside US offices in Tel Aviv, say Netanyahu government is straining relations
JERUSALEM (AP)/July 13, 2023
Thousands of protesters gathered outside the main U.S. diplomatic office in Tel Aviv Thursday night, calling upon the U.S. to condemn Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s plan to overhaul the country’s judiciary. The gathering came days after President Joe Biden called members of Netanyahu's far-right government “extreme” and said that supporters of Israel's West Bank settlements were “part of the problem.”Netanyahu’s allies, who comprise the most far-right Israeli government ever, have proposed a series of changes to the Israeli legal system aimed at weakening what they say are the excessive powers of unelected judges. The proposed changes include giving Netanyahu’s allies control over the appointment of judges and the power to overturn court decisions they do not support. Protesters say the plan will destroy the country’s fragile system of checks and balances and concentrate power in the hands of Netanyahu and his allies. Protesters, who are now in their seventh month of demonstrations, fear that Netanyahu's plans will strain Israel's close alliance with the U.S. Standing outside the U.S. Embassy Branch Office, they waved American flags and LGBTQ+ pride flags and brandished signs reading “SOS” and “Mayday!”The overhaul has drawn consternation from Biden and American Jews. On Sunday, Biden told CNN that Israel’s current government has some “of the most extreme members” he has ever seen and criticized their support for West Bank settlements, built on occupied lands sought by the Palestinians for a future state. He also urged Netanyahu to show “moderation” with the judicial overhaul. Israeli hardliners rejected Biden's criticism. National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, a firebrand settler leader, said that Israel is “no longer another star in the American flag.”Biden has so far declined to invite Netanyahu to the White House, normally a standard courtesy extended to Israeli leaders. Israel's figurehead president, Isaac Herzog, is set to visit Washington next week, and has been invited to address a joint session of Congress on July 19 to celebrate Israel's 75th anniversary. Thursday's protest in Tel Aviv was joined by others across the country, including at Netanyahu's home in Jerusalem and his seaside villa in the town of Caesarea. The Israeli parliament's vote on Tuesday to move forward with a bill that would limit the Supreme Court's oversight powers has given new momentum to the protests, which have swept the country since January. Protesters this week blocked major highways and disrupted operations at Israel's main airport, and more protests are planned this weekend. Wide swaths of Israeli society, including reserve military officers, business leaders, LGBTQ+ and other minority groups, have joined the protests. Netanyahu’s government says it wants to pass parts of the legislation by the end of the month.

Israel's defense chief travels to Azerbaijan, reaffirming shared opposition to Iran
Associated Press/July 13, 2023
Israel's defense minister has visited Azerbaijan, seeking to strengthen ties between countries with shared opposition to Iran. Defense Minster Yoav Gallant and Azerbaijani officials agreed to work together to deter threats from Iran, the Israeli Defense Ministry said. Israel views Iran as its archenemy, while Azerbaijan, which borders Iran to the north, also has a rocky relationship with Iran. "We have many shared challenges - in particular the fight against terrorism – which not only threatens national security, but also aims to destabilize the region," Gallant said in Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan. "Together, we may further deepen the ties between our countries and strengthen the cooperation between our defense establishments and our forces."Israel considers Iran to be its greatest threat, citing Iran's calls for Israel's destruction and its support of hostile militant groups. It also accuses Iran of trying to develop a nuclear bomb — a claim that Iran denies. Israel has repeatedly threatened to take military action against Iran, and Iran has accused Israel of involvement in a series of mysterious attacks on Iranian nuclear scientists and installations. On Thursday, Gallant said that Israel recently allocated billions to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear bomb. Azerbaijan accuses Iran of supporting hard-line Islamists who tried to overthrow the government in Baku, a charge Iran also denies. Relations between Tehran and Baku have soured further this year. In May, Iran expelled four Azeri diplomats, a month after Azerbaijan expelled four Iranian diplomats. In January, a gunman stormed Azerbaijan's embassy in Iran's capital, killing its security chief and wounding two guards. In March, Azerbaijan opened an embassy in Israel in another sign of warming ties.

Sweden condemned as police greenlight Torah burning protest
AFP/July 14, 2023
SROCKHOLM: Swedish police on Friday said they had granted a permit for a protest which would include burning holy texts outside the Israeli embassy in Stockholm, sparking condemnation from Israel and Jewish organizations. The controversial protest, scheduled for Saturday, comes weeks after a man set fire to pages of the Qur'an outside Stockholm’s main mosque — leading to widespread outrage and condemnations around the world. The demonstration would include a burning of the Torah and the Bible, was in response to the Qur'an burning protest and would be an expression in support of freedom of speech, according to the application to police. In a comment to AFP, Stockholm police stressed that in line with Swedish legislation they granted permits for people to hold public gatherings and not for the activities conducted during them. “The police does not issue permits to burn various religious texts — the police issues permits to hold a public gathering and express an opinion,” said Carina Skagerlind, press officer for Stockholm police. “An important distinction,” she added. Israel’s President Isaac Herzog was one of several Israeli representatives and Jewish organizations to immediately condemn the decision. “I unequivocally condemn the permission granted in Sweden to burn holy books,” Herzog said in a statement. “I condemned the burning of the Qur'an, sacred to Muslims world over, and I am now heartbroken that the same fate awaits a Jewish Bible, the eternal book of the Jewish people,” the head of state added. Yaakov Hagoel, chairman of the World Zionist Organization, said in a statement that granting the permit was “not freedom of expression but Antisemitism.” In June, Swedish police had granted a permit for 37-year-old Salwan Momika’s protest where he stomped on the Qur'an and set several pages alight. The permit was granted in line with free speech protections, but authorities later said they had opened an investigation over “agitation against an ethnic group,” noting that Momika had burnt pages from the Islamic holy book very close to the mosque.Countries including Iraq, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Morocco summoned Swedish ambassadors in protest at the Qur'an burning incident, which led to an emergency meeting of the 57-member Organization of Islamic Cooperation. Sweden’s government also condemned the burning as “Islamophobic,” while noting that the country had a “constitutionally protected right to freedom of assembly, expression and demonstration.”

Syria OKs reopening of key crossing to rebel-held northwest from Turkey
Associated Press/July 14, 2023
The Syrian government gave a green light Thursday for the United Nations to use a key crossing from Turkey to the country's rebel-held northwest that was closed earlier this week, but it wants to take away U.N. control over aid deliveries to the region. Syria's U.N. ambassador, Bassam Sabbagh, said the government is granting the U.N. and its agencies "permission" to use the Bab al-Hawa crossing for six months starting Thursday, but he said it must be done "in full cooperation and coordination with the government." He told reporters the U.N. also should not communicate with "terrorist organizations" and their affiliates illegally controlling the Idlib region and must allow the International Committee of the Red Cross and the Syrian Arab Red Crescent to run aid operations in "terrorist" controlled areas, Sabbagh made the announcement after delivering letters to Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and the Security Council president with the government's decision. It followed Tuesday's failure of the Security Council to renew authorization of aid deliveries through Bab al-Hawa, a U.N. operation that had been vital to helping a region of 4.1 million people. U.N. spokesman Stephane Dujarric said: "We've received the letter and are studying it for now."But Britain's U.N. ambassador, Barbara Woodward, was clearly not impressed, saying Bab al-Hawa has "gold standard aid monitoring" yet now Syrian President Bashar Assad has said he will open it without U.N. monitoring.
"Control of this critical lifeline has been handed to the man responsible for the Syrian people's suffering," Woodward said. "The priority needs to be getting aid flowing again, fast, to the people who need it — and then getting certainty over its future. We will not hesitate to bring this back to the Security Council."
The main insurgent group in northwest Idlib is Hayat Tahrir al Sham, whose origins were in al-Qaida. The group and other militants are a mix of home-grown fighters and foreign jihadis who began coming to Syria in 2011 after an initially peaceful uprising against Assad turned into an armed insurgency.
Many people in Idlib have been forced from their homes during the 12-year civil war, which has killed nearly a half million people and displaced half the country's pre-war population of 23 million. Hundreds of thousands live in tent settlements and have relied on aid that comes through the Bab al-Hawa border crossing. The Security Council initially authorized aid deliveries in 2014 from Turkey, Iraq and Jordan through four crossing points into opposition-held areas in Syria. But over the years, Syria's closest ally Russia, backed by China, has reduced the authorized crossings to just Bab al-Hawa from Turkey — and the mandates from a year to six months. After the devastating magnitude 7.8 earthquake that ravaged northwestern Syria and southern Turkey on Feb. 8,, Assad opened two additional crossing points from Turkey, at Bab al-Salameh and al-Rai, to increase the flow of assistance to victim, and he extended their opening until Aug. 13. The United Nations has also been using those crossings to deliver aid. But U.N. spokesman Stephane Dujarric reiterated after Tuesday's vote that the secretary-general was trying to reopen Bab al-Hawa, which is closest to Idlib and where 85% of U.N. cross-border aid passed through.
Pressed on what "full cooperation and coordination with the government" will mean in practice, Sabbagh said that "I leave these details to the U.N. to explain," saying the government wants Bab al-Hawa open. He said Syria also wants the U.N. to support the country's development, recovery, rehabilitation and reconstruction of roads, power stations, mining activities. On Tuesday, Syria's close ally Russia vetoed a compromise resolution drafted by Switzerland and Brazil that would have extended the U.N. operation through Bab al-Hawa for nine months. That was supported by 13 of the 15 council members, as well as by the secretary-general and humanitarian organizations. A rival Russian resolution that would have extended the aid deliveries only for six months but added new requirements failed to get the minimum nine "yes" votes for approval and was only supported by Russia and China. Russian Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia told the council that if Moscow's resolution wasn't accepted it would not approve any compromise. The Russian draft resolution included language supporting Assad's government, which has for years delayed U.N.-led negotiations on a new constitution as a key step to elections and ending the conflict that began in 2011. It also referred to U.S. and European Union sanctions on Syria and asked the secretary-general to provide a special report on the impact of these measures in December.

Ukraine says no talks with Russia until troops leave
Agence France Presse/July 14, 2023
Ukraine will not even consider negotiations with Moscow until Russian troops leave its territory, the head of Ukraine's presidential office said on Friday. "Even thinking about these talks is only possible after Russian troops leave our territory," Andriy Yermak, the head of Ukraine's presidential office, told reporters.

Wagner fighters training territorial defense forces in Belarus
Agence France Presse/July 14, 2023
Minsk said Friday that members of the Russian mercenary force Wagner were acting as military instructors for Belarusian territorial defence forces, three weeks after the group's aborted mutiny in Russia."Near Asipovichy, units of territorial defense troops are undergoing training," the Belarus defense ministry said. "Fighters of the Wagner private military company are acting as instructors in a number of military disciplines."

Ukraine’s counter-offensive not making quick progress
Joe Barnes/The Telegraph/July 14, 2023
Ukraine’s counter-offensive is not making a speedy headway, Volodymyr Zelensky’s top aide said on Friday. Andriy Yermak, the Ukrainian president’s chief of staff, said: “Today it’s advancing not so quickly. “If we are going to see that something is going wrong, we’ll say so. No one is going to embellish.”Ukraine’s armed forces are advancing on three axes in a counter-offensive that has recaptured territory in the east and south of the country from Russian troops. Despite vast deliveries of Western weaponry and the creation of 12 new assault brigades, Kyiv has been faced with heavily fortified Russian positions. Progress has been slow as Ukrainian troops have been forced to dismount from vehicles and fight through vast minefields laid by Russian forces. The best successes have been around the Donetsk region city of Bakhmut, where Ukrainian troops are reclaiming ground around its flanks.
Its forces advanced 1,700 metres in the direction of the southern city of Melitopol, in the Zaporizhzhia region, last week, Colonel Mykolaiv Urshalovych of Ukraine’s national guard said. He added: “Our units are advancing through dense enemy minefields at the approaches to their positions and under heavy fire, including 213 strikes from multiple-launch rocket systems, tanks, and artillery, and six airstrikes during the past week.”Western officials estimate that Kyiv’s forces are just 300 metres from some of Russia’s main defensive lines elsewhere on the battlefield. Earlier this week, Ben Wallace, Britain’s defence minister, suggested breaking those lines could lead to a collapse because “instead of there being lots of Russians behind those lines, there aren’t much behind them”. Kyiv has yet to commit the bulk of its reserves to the counter-offensive, and is expected to “pile in” if an opening is made. Mr Yermak insisted his country’s Western allies were not putting pressure on Kyiv to advance faster. “It’s clear that our successes on the battlefield influence everything that is happening,” he said, insisting peace talks would not start until “after Russian troops leave our territory”. Broaden your horizons with award-winning British journalism. Try The Telegraph free for 1 month, then enjoy 1 year for just $9 with our US-exclusive offer.

Russia launches overnight drone attack on Ukrainian president's hometown
KYIV (Reuters)/Fri, July 14, 2023
A 56-year-old man was injured in an overnight Russian drone strike on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy's hometown, the central city of Kryvyi Rih, the regional governor said on Friday. The attack damaged a number of buildings in Kryvyi Rih but Ukraine's air force said 16 of the 17 Iranian-made Shahed attack drones launched by Russia overnight had been shot down in southern and eastern areas of the country. Falling debris damaged a municipal enterprise, two residential buildings and a transport company in Kryvyi Rih, regional governor Serhiy Lysak said on the Telegram messaging app. City mayor Oleksandr Vilkul said windows had been blown out in apartment blocks and private houses, hospitals and schools. The drone launches were the latest in a series of attacks in which the capital Kyiv came under attack on three successive nights this week. Russia did not comment on the attacks, and denies deliberately targeting civilians.

Russia says West is sponsoring 'nuclear terrorism' after Ukrainian drone strike
MOSCOW (Reuters)/Fri, July 14, 2023
Russia accused the West on Friday of sponsoring "nuclear terrorism" after authorities said a Ukrainian drone had struck the western Russian town of Kurchatov, where a nuclear power station similar to the ill-fated Chernobyl plant is located. Roman Starovoit, the governor of Russia's Kursk region which borders Ukraine, said the Ukrainian drone had struck a residential apartment building in Kurchatov, a Soviet-era town built on the banks of a cooling pond for the Kursk nuclear power station which is still in service. "A drone crashed in the town of Kurchatov overnight," Starovoit said on the Telegram messaging app. "Fortunately, none of the residents were injured. Critical facilities were not damaged as a result of the drone crash and its subsequent detonation."The only damage was to the facade and glazing of one apartment building, he added, saying the authorities would help residents restore their homes. There was no immediate reaction from Ukraine, which is regularly subjected to massed Russian drone attacks and seldom comments on its own suspected drone and sabotage attacks inside Russia.
RUSSIAN FURY
The incident, which comes after Russia said it had destroyed two Ukrainian drones near the Kremlin in May, drew a furious reaction from the Russian Foreign Ministry given the drone's proximity to a nuclear power station. "Are the countries that supply them (the drones) to the Kyiv regime planning to retire to Mars if there is a nuclear disaster? They won't have time," Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said sarcastically. "People in NATO countries should realise that their governments are sponsoring nuclear terrorism by the Kyiv regime." Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia's air defence systems were working effectively amid unconfirmed social media reports that such systems had been used to repel the drone attack, but said it was obvious that Ukraine was continuing to try to strike targets inside Russia. Russia's FSB security service said in August last year that security around nuclear facilities had been beefed up after people it said were Ukrainian saboteurs destroyed electricity lines supplying the Kursk nuclear power plant, temporarily disrupting its functioning. Alexei Likhachev, the head of Russia's Rosatom state nuclear corporation, told state TV on Thursday that security at nuclear power plants was "under control" and that all necessary measures had been taken, including air defence capabilities. Russia and Ukraine have long accused each other of risking a nuclear catastrophe at another facility - the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant on Russian-controlled territory in southern Ukraine - through shelling.

Putin wants to attend an August summit. Host country South Africa doesn't want to have to arrest him
CAPE TOWN, South Africa (AP) /Fri, July 14, 2023
Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to attend an economic summit in South Africa next month and the country is desperately trying to persuade him to stay away to avoid the legal and diplomatic fallout over his international arrest warrant, South Africa's deputy president said in an interview with a news website on Friday. As a signatory to the treaty establishing the International Criminal Court, South Africa is obliged to arrest Putin on an indictment the court issued against the Russian leader in March for war crimes involving the abduction of children from Ukraine. Moscow has dismissed the warrant. South African authorities are likely to breach the treaty and not arrest Putin, but some opposition parties, rights groups and legal activists have said he should be arrested and have threatened to do it themselves, raising security issues for the BRICS summit in Johannesburg.
Having already decided not to condemn Russia over its invasion of Ukraine, South Africa faces the prospect of further straining relations with the West if it allows Putin to freely attend the summit of the BRICS emerging economies bloc of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.
Putin hasn't yet traveled to a country that is a signatory to the court treaty since the arrest warrant against him was issued. The Kremlin has not said that Putin will attend and the brief rebellion in Russia by the Wagner private military group appeared to make it unlikely he would travel after such a serious threat to his rule. But Russia does want Putin to attend alongside Chinese leader Xi Jinping and the other presidents, South Africa Deputy President Paul Mashatile said in the interview with News24, a top South African news outlet. All the leaders were invited to the summit before the indictment against Putin was issued, South Africa has said. “It’s a big dilemma for us. Of course, we cannot arrest him," Mashatile said. “It’s almost like you invite your friend to your house, and then arrest them. That’s why for us, his not coming is the best solution. The Russians are not happy, though. They want him to come."Mashatile was put in charge of finding a solution by South African President Cyril Ramaphosa. Russia has rejected the alternatives, which included moving the summit to China, holding a virtual summit or Russia being represented by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, Mashatile said. Ramaphosa will now attempt to convince Putin not to travel to South Africa when they meet at the Russia-Africa summit in St. Petersburg at the end of this month, Mashatile said. “We’ve now decided to leave this matter with the president, who is talking to Putin,” Mashatile said. “The president is going to the Russia-Africa summit later this month, so they will continue to talk. We want to show him the challenges that we face because we are part of the Rome Statute and we can’t wiggle out of this.”South Africa has history on the issue after failing in 2015 to arrest then-Sudan President Omar al-Bashir on a visit to South Africa when he was wanted by the ICC tribunal for alleged war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide. Allowing Putin to attend the BRICS meeting would put more pressure on South Africa's relations with the U.S. and its other important Western diplomatic and trade partners. U.S.-South Africa relationships are already under strain after the U.S. accused Africa's most developed country of providing weapons to Moscow for the war in Ukraine on a Russian cargo ship that visited South Africa's main naval base near Cape Town in December. South Africa has denied there was any weapons transaction but Ramaphosa has ordered an investigation into the visit of the Lady R ship, which is under U.S. sanctions for allegedly transporting weapons for Moscow.

Communication cuts, disease rife in Sudan as fighting rages
AFP/July 14, 2023
KHARTOUM: War-torn Sudan’s capital experienced a communications blackout for several hours on Friday, residents said, as the army and paramilitary forces waged intense battles across Khartoum and humanitarian groups warned of worsening crises. “Violent clashes” shook the capital, witnesses told AFP over the phone, after residents woke up to an outage of vital Internet and mobile phone connections. The source of the malfunction was not clear, though mobile and Internet networks were restored by the afternoon. Throughout the day, columns of black smoke were seen rising near army headquarters in the center of Khartoum as well as in the city’s south. Witnesses in Khartoum North said there were “clashes using all kinds of weapons.” In Omdurman, just across the Nile river, witnesses reported fighter jets and drones flying overhead.
Since April 15, the forces army chief Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan have been at war with the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, commanded by his former deputy, Mohamed Hamdan Daglo. The fighting has killed at least 3,000 people across Sudan, according to the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project, with the worst fighting taking place in Khartoum and the western Darfur region. According to the United Nations, more than 1.7 million Khartoum residents have been forced to flee continuous air strikes, tanks and fighters on the streets and rampant looting. Those who fled and the millions that remain have relied on the Internet to source basic needs, setting up crowd-sourcing initiatives for escape routes, food and medicine. More than 2.4 million people have been displaced within the country, where supplies have run low even in safe areas and “between two thirds and 80 percent of hospitals are not functioning,” Rick Brennan, of the World Health Organization, said Friday. Sudan’s “already overstretched health care system” is facing “enormous challenges” in the current crisis, “putting the people of Sudan in a life-or-death situation,” said Brennan, regional emergency director for WHO’s east Mediterranean office. In the southern city of Kosti, the last major town on the road from Khartoum to South Sudan, the Norwegian Refugee Council warned Friday that heavy rains had caused floods and “left families in need of assistance, including 260,000 who fled from Khartoum.”Aid groups have repeatedly pleaded for humanitarian corridors to allow aid and personnel through, warning that the rainy season — which began in June — could cause outbreaks of water-borne diseases in several remote areas. A meeting of health workers and aid groups Thursday showed measles outbreaks in 11 of Sudan’s 18 states, as well as “300 cases and 7 deaths of cholera/acute watery diarrhea,” according to a statement Friday by the Islamic Relief aid group. The water-borne disease is a regular risk with Sudan’s severe annual flooding, but the WHO said Friday that “reports of a likely cholera outbreak are difficult to confirm in the absence of a functioning public health laboratory.” Sudan’s neighbors — where 740,000 people have fled, according to the UN — fear widening regional spillover from the conflict. In impoverished South Sudan, “the closure of the northern border has left many markets empty” and jeopardized an already fragile humanitarian situation, Pierre Dorbes of the International Committee of the Red Cross said Friday. Since the war began, “more than 160,000 returnees and refugees from Sudan have poured into South Sudan,” he said. A summit of leaders from Sudan’s neighbors met in Cairo Thursday to discuss the conflict. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi urged international donors “to honor their commitments,” referring to $1.5 billion in aid pledged at a Geneva conference in June — less than half the estimated needs for Sudan and its affected neighbors. The summit followed multiple diplomatic efforts to mediate an end to the violence, after successive US and Saudi-brokered cease-fires were all violated. It echoed calls for a cease-fire made earlier in the week at talks held by east African bloc IGAD, which the Sudanese army had boycotted. On Thursday, the International Criminal Court said it has commenced investigations into alleged war crimes, after increased reports of atrocities, particularly in Darfur, including of sexual violence and civilians being targeted for their ethnicity.

France celebrates Bastille Day with pomp, tribute to India, and extra police
Associated Press/July 14, 2023
France is celebrating its national holiday Friday with whizzing warplanes and a grand Bastille Day parade in Paris — and with more than 100,000 police deployed around the country to prevent a new outbreak of unrest in underprivileged neighborhoods.
This year, the annual events celebrating the start of the French Revolution on July 14, 1789 come in the wake of the nation's most serious rioting in nearly 20 years, following the fatal police shooting of a teen with North African roots that laid bare anger over entrenched inequality and racial discrimination.
India is the guest of honor at this year's Bastille Day parade, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi watching in the VIP tribune alongside French President Emmanuel Macron. About 240 Indian troops led the march down the Champs-Elysees before thousands of French forces, and French-made Indian warplanes joined the traditional flyby above the event. France often showcases international partners on Bastille Day, and the choice of India comes as France looks to further strengthen cooperation on fighting climate change, military sales and the strategic Indo-Pacific region. But human rights were missing from the vast agenda, despite concerns raised by European lawmakers, rights groups and others. Russia's war in Ukraine — central to last year's Bastille Day celebrations – echoed in this year's events as well. Vehicles on display included the Caesar anti-missile batteries that France is providing to Ukraine, and Ukrainian officials were invited to join Macron in the VIP seats. On the eve of France's national day, Macron gave a posthumous Legion of Honor award to a French journalist killed in Ukraine earlier this year, Arman Soldin of news agency Agence France-Presse.
The Bastille Day parade includes 6,500 people marching, 94 planes and helicopters, 219 ground vehicles, 200 horses and 86 dogs. Celebrations are held in towns and cities around France, which are meant to celebrate France's ideals of ''liberty, equality and fraternity."
But the motto rings hollow for many people living in neglected housing projects who trace their roots to former French colonies and struggle with lack of opportunity and day-to-day racism. These issues came to the fore after the police killing of 17-year-old Nahel Merzouk last month in the Paris suburb of Nanterre during a traffic stop. The fatal shooting at point-blank range, captured on video, sparked several days of clashes with police, burning of buildings and vehicles and looting of stores in cities and towns around France.
Macron hasn't directly addressed the issues raised by the killing of Merzouk, focusing instead on supporting towns that saw damage in rioting. A presidential aide said that the recent violence had "no impact'' on plans for the Bastille Day parade, but said the celebrations come "at a time when it is necessary to reaffirm national cohesion."Fighter jets in formation passed over Merzouk's hometown of Nanterre in Bastille Day rehearsals this week. On Friday, they zipped past Nanterre on their way toward the Arc de Triomphe and the political and military elite gathered on the Place de la Concorde, a plaza meant to celebrate national harmony. Bracing for more violence around Bastille Day, when unrest tends to spike every year, France's government deployed an exceptional 130,000 police Thursday and Friday. Fireworks were banned in several towns, including Nanterre, after they had been used to target police in the recent rioting. Overnight Thursday to Friday, the Interior Ministry reported 97 people arrested in urban violence and 218 cars set alight around the country. That was slightly lower than last year.

UN 'deeply disturbed' by campaign of arrests in Libya
Agence France Presse/July 14, 2023
The United Nations mission in Libya has expressed its concern over "continued abductions, arbitrary arrests, and disappearances of citizens and public figures by various security actors" in the war-ravaged country. Among those who have gone missing is Faraj Abderrahmane Boumtari, a former finance minister. On Wednesday, Boumtari "was reportedly detained at Mitiga Airport and taken to an undisclosed location", the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) said in a statement. It added that "five members of the High Council of State have been reportedly banned from travelling at the same airport" in Tripoli. UNSMIL warned that such acts create "a climate of fear, promote tensions between communities and tribes, and have serious implications for the unification of national institutions". Oil-rich Libya plunged into over a decade of chaos after a NATO-backed uprising toppled and killed dictator Moammar Gadhafi in 2011. Since then, the North African country has been divided, with one administration based in Tripoli and the other in the east where it is backed by military strongman Khalifa Haftar. The U.N. urged the Libyan authorities and security organizations to "release all those arbitrarily detained, ensure independent investigations for all alleged extra-legal detentions and abductions and bring the perpetrators to justice." News of the Boumtari's arrest by security agents at the airport on Wednesday quickly circulated, but has not yet been confirmed by the authorities. Members of Boumtari's tribe, the Zouaya from the southeast, threatened Thursday to block oil terminals in the east if he was not released. But reports on social media on Thursday said that two oilfields in the south, at Al-Sharara and Al-Fil, had already been blockaded by protesters.

Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on July 14-15/2023
Is Erdoğan Hoping to Bring 84 Million Turks into Europe?
Burak Bekdil/Gatestone Institute/July 14, 2023
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/120107/120107/
Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan talks about an "evil West" but wants to become part of it -- perhaps to "improve" it?
Erdoğan needs money. He needs it now, and preferably from Western markets instead of one-off cash injections from Russia and friendly Gulf states.
Erdoğan aims to... [k]eep within the EU membership process, which he calculates may give Turkey better borrowing options on international markets, as well as the possibility of sending 84 million more Turks into Europe and potentially changing its prevailing religion.
Could [Erdoğan] be hoping that the U.S. Congress will endorse the sale of F-16 Block 70 fighter jets to Turkey? There will be many horse-trading moments during the process, but this is the beginning of a new tactical warfare between Erdogan's Turkey and the West.
"The Swedes were too eager to receive Erdoğan's blessing and Erdoğan used that yearning to tie them down. Remember Gulliver in the Land of Lilliput?" — Eugene Kogan, defense expert, Tbilisi, Georgia, to the author, July 10, 2023.
Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan talks about an "evil West" but wants to become part of it -- perhaps to "improve" it? Pictured: Erdoğan gives a press conference during the NATO Summit in Vilnius, Lithuania on July 12, 2023. (Photo by Ludovic Marin/AFP via Getty Images)
If logic worked in politics, the question to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan should have been: Why has your country had so passionately sought out, in vain, membership in the European Union?
Erdoğan talks about an "evil West" but wants to become part of it -- perhaps to "improve" it? Why did Turkey send its 15,000 sons, only to greet with honor 700 dead soldiers in a war that took place 8,000 km away on the Korean Peninsula? Turkey has been a full member candidate for the EU since 1987, but the Korean military campaign earned it NATO membership in 1952.
Since the 1950s, Turkey's soul-searching has never ceased. Hence the shocking news of July 9 that an all-smiles NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said that Erdoğan, after several months of unilateral blockade, has agreed to send Sweden's accession protocol for joining NATO to the Turkish Parliament "as soon as possible" and to help ensure that the assembly approves it. As often happens in journalism, the "news" here is not in the headline -- even though "Turkey approves Sweden's NATO accession protocol" was the only breaking news a journalist could pick up.
Erdoğan's Islamist, anti-Western ideology is no secret to anyone. Shortly before the most recent presidential and parliamentary elections (May 14 and 28) Erdoğan accused Turkish opposition parties of having surrendered Turkey to a supposedly hostile West. In 2022, Erdoğan said that the West invaded the world with its soft power, including slavery, massacres and colonialism. In 2021, he declared the end of Western hegemony and of an understanding that accepts Western superiority. He has accused the U.S. administration numerous times of arming Kurdish militants in northern Syria while abstaining from selling weapons system to Turkey.
In 2017, he threatened the West: "If this [Islamophobia] persists no street in the world will be safe for Westerners." Erdoğan also claimed in 2017 that the "crusaders' mentality was attacking Turkey." And in 2018: "We are facing a new crusaders' alliance." Unsurprisingly, Erdoğan has described Germany and the Netherlands as "the remnants of Nazism."
Why does the man who so passionately hates the Western civilization not feel politically comfortable without the institutional links bonding his country to the West? The EU that Erdoğan verbally attacks, has a population of 450 million and is four times richer than Turkey. With 40% of Turkey's overall exports, the EU is Turkey's top foreign market. With a poor foreign direct investment of $5.5 billion in the first half of 2023, Turkey is looking at the countries it deems as "remnants of Nazis." In that period, the top three foreign investors in Turkey were the Netherlands, Switzerland and Germany.
According to the World Bank, in an April 2023 report:
"... productivity growth has slowed as reform momentum has waned over the past decade, and efforts have turned to supporting growth with credit booms and demand stimulus, intensifying internal and external vulnerabilities. High private sector debt, persistent current account deficits, high inflation, and high unemployment have been exacerbated by macro-financial instability since August 2018."
"Turkey is heading very rapidly to a currency crisis or, more formally speaking, balance of payments crisis," said Atilla Yeşilada, a Turkish analyst for GlobalSource Partners.
Erdoğan needs money. He needs it now, and preferably from Western markets instead of one-off cash injections from Russia and friendly Gulf states. "Linking Turkey's EU membership to Sweden's NATO accession protocol is as absurd as finding a linkage between Turkey in NAFTA in exchange for Mexico in the EU," one EU ambassador in Ankara told me on July 10.
Erdoğan is opening a new negotiation table. He will demand a revision of Turkey's 1995 customs union agreement with the EU and visa liberalization (looser visa rules for Turkish citizens), both of which were part of a 2016 deal between Ankara and Brussels but since then, have not progressed.
By demanding these, Erdoğan aims to:
Augment his international legitimacy, especially after his re-election as president on May 28, and
Keep Turkey within the EU membership process, which he calculates may give Turkey better borrowing options on international markets, as well as the possibility of sending 84 million more Turks into Europe and potentially changing its prevailing religion.
Erdoğan is clearly trying to signal to the U.S. Congress by flashing a more pro-Western, less pro-Russian, foreign policy calculus in the next couple of years. Could he be hoping that Congress will endorse the sale of F-16 Block 70 fighter jets to Turkey? There will be many horse-trading moments during the process, but this is the beginning of a new tactical warfare between Erdogan's Turkey and the West.
"The Swedes were too eager to receive Erdoğan's blessing," Eugene Kogan, a defense expert based in Tbilisi, Georgia, told the author on July 10, "and Erdoğan used that yearning to tie them down. Remember Gulliver in the Land of Lilliput?"
*Burak Bekdil, one of Turkey's leading journalists, was recently fired from the country's most noted newspaper after 29 years, for writing in Gatestone what is taking place in Turkey. He is a Fellow at the Middle East Forum.
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https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/19802/erdogan-europe

The Sneaky Master Plan Behind Erdogan’s Sudden Split From Putin
Shannon Vavra/The Daily Beast./July 14, 2023
After months of carefully navigating a relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin during Russia’s war in Ukraine, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan seems to be calling it quits.
In just the last week, Erdogan has dropped his opposition to Sweden joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), a move that is sure to anger Putin, and announced his interest in reinvigorating Turkey’s efforts to join the European Union.
He also hosted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Istanbul and helped return Azovstal Ukrainian fighters captured by Russia to Ukraine, reneging on an agreement between Ankara and Moscow to hold the men until the war was over.
The series of snubs to Putin in the last week come just days after Yevgeniy Prigozhin and his Wagner mercenaries launched a failed mutiny against the Kremlin. The insurrection flopped, but left Putin’s grip on power shaken and likely forced Erdogan to question his alignment with Putin and lean into his partnerships with the West as one of the biggest members of NATO.
Even for all of the work Erdogan has done to navigate his relationships with both Putin and Western nations during the war in Ukraine, Erdogan is likely looking for a way to diversify his allegiances after the failed coup, said Selim Kuneralp, a former Turkish ambassador to Sweden.
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“Erdogan probably doesn’t see that as a sign of strength for Putin—more like the opposite,” Kuneralp told The Daily Beast. “He thinks that after all, he’s got everything that he could get out of Putin. Putin is in a rather weaker position than he used to be so he’s perhaps not in a very good situation to provide material help to the Turkish economy and so on. So maybe he’s looking elsewhere.”
And while Turkish media touted last week’s diplomatic dance as a major win for Turkey, the calculations behind the scenes to support Sweden joining NATO likely aren’t so rosy.
The decision to pivot to the West may more likely be about optics and distancing from Putin than about securing concrete and immediate policy results.
While Erdogan tied Turkey’s efforts to join the EU to his support for Sweden’s NATO bid and secured some assurances from Sweden with respect to Turkey’s EU bid, promised Swedish support alone will not give Turkey’s EU process a significant boost.
Turkey’s EU plans have fallen flat in recent years. Following an attempted coup on his grip on power in 2016, Erdogan cracked down with constitutional reforms, raising red flags on Turkey’s human rights and legal track record and grinding the EU accession process to a halt. Germany and France have long eyed Turkey’s interest in joining the EU with consternation, and there are a whole host of critiques Turkey has faced through the years, from questions of judicial independence to Erdogan’s purge of coup plotters.
Sweden’s agreement to push for Turkey’s bid to join the EU isn’t going to bring Turkey to the finish line, according to Marc Pierini, a former EU ambassador to Turkey. Sweden’s support for the process doesn’t appear to go beyond the EU leaders’ June 30 agreement, which stated that examining “options identified by the European Council” for EU-Turkey relations should continue, and that EU-Turkey relations should proceed in a strategic manner.
The European Council’s president, Charles Michel, summarized the current state of play for Turkey’s bid to the EU earlier this week, noting he supports efforts to “re-energize our relations” and bring them to the “forefront.”
Erdogan’s decision to push Sweden on the EU process is likely more of a PR-stunt repeating old promises to rally domestic approval than it is a strategy to get major concessions from Sweden or roadblocks out of the way for joining the EU.
“The last-minute addition of an ‘EU concession’ was essentially an off-ramp to sell the decision to the Turkish audience,” Pierini told The Daily Beast. “Sweden is for nothing in this, it is simply a repetition of the June 30 conclusions.”
Nothingburger
Sweden’s statements that it will support Turkey’s bid means little to nothing, said Sinan Ulgen, a former Turkish diplomat who previously served at the Turkish Permanent Delegation to the European Union.
“It’s absolutely nothing. It’s totally window dressing,” Ulgen told The Daily Beast. “For those of us who know the dynamics and diplomacy around it, see this very clearly as an empty Swedish support to Turkey's new track... an empty promise.”
European officials aren’t sold on linking Turkey’s EU accession process to Sweden’s NATO process either.
“You cannot link the two processes,” European Commission spokesperson Dana Spinant said.
Similarly, Sweden has long been supportive of Turkey’s efforts to join the EU, so the statement is all but a platitude, according to Kuneralp, who also previously served as head of the Permanent Delegation of Turkey to the EU.
“Sweden has traditionally supported Turkey’s European Union interest… so there’s nothing very new in there,” Kuneralp told The Daily Beast. “And of course Sweden is only one of 27 countries in the European Union.”
Sweden’s statements may be besides the point, especially since Turkey does not appear prepared to carve out changes that would help it join the EU, Kuneralp added.
“There is no indication that President Erdogan plans to meet any of the conditions that European Union puts out,” Kuneralp said.
Other promises Erdogan secured from Sweden this week likewise may not bring sweeping changes.
One of Turkey’s major hang-ups in Sweden's bid to join NATO was that it claimed Sweden allowed members of the militant Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) to operate freely. And although Erdogan received assurances that Stockholm would work on expanding “its counter-terrorism cooperation,” many of the negotiations with Sweden took place months ago.
Sweden previously amended its constitution and changed some of its counterterrorism laws in response to demands from Turkey that it help crack down on the PKK.
But even so, it’s possible that Sweden is not going to crack down in ways that are satisfying to Turkey. Many questions remain as to whether Sweden’s cooperation with Turkey on counterterrorism will meet all of the hopes and dreams of the Nationalist Action Party (MHP) in Turkey, which has been very focused on the terrorism issue, warned Ulgen.
A photo of President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky and President of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan shake hands during a press conference.
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky and President of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan during a joint press conference on July 8, 2023 in Istanbul, Turkey.
Chris McGrath/Getty Images
Sweden will “of course not” do everything Turkey wants on “counterterrorism,” Ulgen said. “Whatever Sweden does is going to be in conformity with the concept of Europe’s norms.”
Already, MHP leadership has lambasted Erdogan for looking past Sweden’s approach to counterterrorism, claiming their objections to Sweden joining NATO were legitimate.
“How will we come together with a country that embraces and tolerates terrorist organizations that directly threaten our national security,” said Devlet Bahceli, the leader of the MHP.
The Kremlin hit back on Turkey’s westward maneuvers this week, too. Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesperson, said Turkey shouldn’t get its hopes up for joining the EU.
“No one wants to see Turkey in Europe, I mean the Europeans. And here our Turkish partners should not wear rose-tinted spectacles,” Peskov said.
But even though it looks like Erdogan is walking away from Sweden with just talking points, he has won out in other ways.
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Reading between the lines, it’s clear that Putin is going to continue trying to lean on Erdogan, who now has gained a little extra boost to his leverage over Putin in the last several days, said Ulgen.
“The asymmetry moved to Erdogan’s advantage, because now Putin needs Erdogan much more so than in the past in the sense that Turkey is the only NATO country that has this high-level political dialogue with Russia. Turkey is the only NATO country not to impose sanctions on Russia. Turkey’s the only NATO country that has kept its air corridor open to Russia,” Ulgen said. “Maintaining that access to the Western world—to Turkey—is vital for the Russian leadership, and this is what allows Erdogan to act in a way that he couldn’t before.”
What Erdogan really wants—F-16 jets from the United States—still appears to hang in the balance.
Jake Sullivan, President Joe Biden’s national security adviser, indicated on Tuesday that the Biden administration will be moving forward with the transfer of F-16s, albeit pending approval from Congress.
“President Biden has been clear and unequivocal for months that he’s supported the transfer of F-16s to Turkey,” Sullivan told reporters. “He has placed no caveats... He intends to move forward with that transfer.”

Russia-Turkiye ties to the fore as Moscow vetoes Syria aid renewal
Sinem Cengiz/Arab News/July 14, 2023
Russia on Tuesday once again used its veto power at the UN Security Council to block the proposed authorization renewal of a cross-border operation that delivers aid from Turkiye to millions of people in northwest Syria.
The aid is not only the last lifeline for Syrians; for Ankara, it is highly critical to preserve the fragile conditions there. Increased suffering due to the aid cut-off might pose disquieting risks to Turkiye and might even affect the delicate Turkish-Russian cooperation in Syria.
The Assad regime in Damascus has unilaterally offered to keep the Bab Al-Hawa crossing from Turkiye open for the next six months to continue the flow of aid, but it remains to be seen how that offer will be received.
Syria has been a topic that the five permanent members of the UNSC — the US, Russia, China, the UK and France — have long been divided over. While most members wanted a full-year extension of the aid authorization, they supported a compromise on a nine-month extension. However, Russia insisted on only a six-month extension. This Russian move also threw into doubt the future of the additional two border crossings from Turkiye that were opened after Syrian President Bashar Assad allowed the UN to dispatch aid to victims of the earthquake that hit Syria and Turkiye in early February. That approval expires in mid-August. Russia desires strong relations with Ankara despite the existing disagreements between them
The other UNSC permanent members — with the exception of China — have condemned Russia’s move to block the proposed extension of the cross-border operation. Despite being part of the operation, Ankara refrained from commenting.
The Russian veto came as Turkiye made a positive move at the NATO Summit held in Vilnius, Lithuania. The Turkish position at the summit raised eyebrows in Moscow and led to a sharp reaction from Russian officials. A Russian defense official said Turkiye was turning into an “unfriendly country” after a series of “provocative” decisions. He was referring to the recent visit of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to Turkiye, Ankara’s endorsement of Ukraine’s NATO bid and it also opening the way for Sweden to be part of the alliance. Moscow even stressed that Turkiye should be under no illusion that it might one day be allowed to join the EU, even after its Sweden approval, while saying that Russia desires strong relations with Ankara despite the existing disagreements between them.
Following Moscow’s statement, the Russian foreign minister held a phone call with his Turkish counterpart, during which the two top diplomats reiterated the necessity to preserve and strengthen the “trust-based nature” of relations between Moscow and Ankara.
A close ally to the Syrian regime, Russia has used its veto at least 17 times regarding Syria since the outbreak of war in 2011. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has previously been critical of the veto power of the permanent members of the UNSC. He even coined the phrase “the world is bigger than five,” in reference to the need for reform of the UNSC and the fact that the fate of international issues should not be left in the hands of only these five countries.
Turkiye has raised its concerns that the great powers are in competition with one another and that they exploit third countries’ problems, such as in the case of the Syrian humanitarian aid issue. When Erdogan called for reform of the UNSC back in 2021, his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin rejected his proposal to remove the veto power of the permanent members, saying it would turn the body into a “debate club.”
There is still optimism that members of the UNSC might find common ground to break the stalemate
Russia’s latest veto has been interpreted as its politicization of a humanitarian cause to impose pressure in pursuit of political goals, whether in the context of the Syrian war or other international issues, most likely related to Ukraine. Also, the move came less than three weeks after an attempted mutiny in Russia by Yevgeny Prigozhin, the boss of the mercenary group Wagner, which exposed cracks in Moscow’s military leadership and Putin’s power in Syria.
However, the cross-border mandate is not only related to Russia’s opposition to the West or its alliance with the Syrian regime. It is also related to Turkish-Russian ties in the context of Syria. Through the Astana peace process, launched in 2017, Ankara and Moscow established a delicate cooperation on Syria. Despite their having opposing visions of the war, the process eventually built closer ties among them. Most importantly, their cooperation on Syria started after the Turkish-Russian tensions of 2015-2016 and ultimately allowed Turkiye to carry out several military operations in northern Syria with Russia’s explicit approval. The original UN mandate of 2014 granted humanitarian access through four border crossings. However, since 2020, Russia has used the threat of a veto to limit it to one Turkish border crossing with the need for renewal every six months. Although it is hard to interpret the latest Russian veto, there is still optimism that members of the UNSC might find common ground to break the stalemate. A positive move by Russia regarding the aid operation would definitely be welcomed by Ankara, which has sought to maintain cordial ties with both Moscow and the West, even during the war in Ukraine. Erdogan has refused to join in with the Western sanctions against Russia and has even invited Putin to visit Turkiye in August.Thus, regarding the cross-border aid mandate, the most critical point for Moscow is to maintain its cooperation with Turkiye on the Syrian file, while considering the delicate balance the two states have achieved over the past few years thanks to the personal bond between Putin and Erdogan. Despite the recent pro-Western moves by Ankara, it is likely that Turkish-Russian relations will remain significant, but their delicate cooperation in Syria is tied to several factors, one of them being the aid issue.
• Sinem Cengiz is a Turkish political analyst who specializes in Turkiye’s relations with the Middle East. Twitter: @SinemCngz

Gulf nations offer great opportunities for investors
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/July 14, 2023
Successful investors, whether they are individuals or firms, normally search for investment opportunities where there exists potential for high and rapid financial growth. Some of the most important places with fast-growing economies are the emerging markets. And the Gulf nations, particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE, are currently among the most attractive countries for investments.
While some companies may look to Europe or North America for investment opportunities, emerging markets should not be underestimated for several reasons. First of all, emerging markets include more than 80 percent of the world’s population. Emerging markets are also behind approximately 80 percent of global gross domestic product growth. “While most people know that China’s economy is expanding rapidly, dozens of other emerging market countries are also showing impressive growth. Many are benefiting from advances in education and technology and the adoption of more market-friendly policies. This growth story translates into opportunities for companies located or doing business in these markets,” according to US mutual fund company Dodge & Cox.
In addition, emerging markets tend to have an attractive, untapped and lucrative market as they still have a lot of room left to expand economically, both within their region and on the global stage. Similar to small-cap companies, which have tremendous space to grow to increase their revenues and exposure, emerging markets also offer many opportunities for investors.
Even on the global level, the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar are among the top 10 most attractive emerging markets
When it comes to emerging markets in the region, it is worth noting that several Gulf nations are ranked as being among the most appealing and attractive emerging markets in the Middle East and North Africa, according to Kearney’s 2023 Foreign Direct Investment Confidence Index. Even on the global level, the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar are among the top 10 most attractive emerging markets. The Kearney’s index is based on an annual survey of global business executives, who are asked to rank the market based on their expectations over the next three years.
Gulf leaders have been taking important steps to increase the size of their economies. For example, Dubai has this year announced an $8 trillion economic plan. The plan aims to double the size of its economy and make it “one of the top three economic cities in the world,” according to Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al-Maktoum, the ruler of Dubai. He tweeted: “Dubai will rank as one of the top four global financial centers with an increase in FDI to over AED 650 billion ($177 billion) over the next decade. Over 300,000 global investors are helping build Dubai into the fastest-growing global city.”
Qatar has also unveiled a $275 billion plan to attract foreign investments and support a competitive economy. The Qatar Investment Authority stated: “The commitment from QIA aligns with its mandate to support the development of a competitive Qatari economy.” According to Petroleum Australia, Qatar’s spending of more than $200 billion “to improve infrastructure, expand the North gas field, host the 2030 Asian Games, and initiatives to diversify the economy away from hydrocarbons have strengthened the country’s position as a potential investment destination. Against this backdrop, the Qatari economy is set to grow at an average annual rate of 3.1 percent over 2023-25, forecasts GlobalData.”
When it comes to Saudi Arabia, its Vision 2030 is one of the most ambitious and comprehensive plans introduced in the modern Middle East because it encompasses not only economic reforms, but also wide-ranging changes to the country’s environmental, social and religious landscapes, along with political reforms.
Saudi Arabia has already taken several steps in its implementation of Vision 2030 that have proven to be successful
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has pointed out the importance of creating opportunities for all. In his 2016 foreword to Vision 2030, the crown prince said the Kingdom’s vision is a “strong, thriving, and stable Saudi Arabia that provides opportunity for all. Our Vision is a tolerant country with Islam as its constitution and moderation as its method. We will welcome qualified individuals from all over the world and will respect those who have come to join our journey and our success.”
He continued: “We intend to provide better opportunities for partnerships with the private sector through the three pillars: Our position as the heart of the Arab and Islamic worlds, our leading investment capabilities, and our strategic geographical position. We will improve the business environment, so that our economy grows and flourishes, driving healthier employment opportunities for citizens and long-term prosperity for all. This promise is built on cooperation and on mutual responsibility.”
The Kingdom has already taken several steps in its implementation of Vision 2030 that have proven to be successful. For example, the benefits of its economic reforms have included enhancing the business environment, attracting foreign investment, encouraging privatization, creating private sector jobs and increasing digitalization.
While some countries maintain a closed economy with an iron fist in order to monopolize wealth, the Kingdom has been pursuing initiatives to diversify and privatize the Saudi economy in order to benefit more people. This will reverberate across the region. The International Monetary Fund has endorsed the Kingdom’s plan to build a $500 billion business and industrial zone that extends into Jordan and Egypt. This project has a lot of potential when it comes to attracting foreign visitors and creating more social and cultural dialogue between the West and the Middle East.
In a nutshell, the Gulf nations, particularly the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, are undoubtedly among the most attractive and appealing emerging markets in the world, offering great opportunities for investors.
• Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian-American political scientist. Twitter: @Dr_Rafizadeh

Global survey reveals that US soft power remains strong
Kerry Boyd Anderson/Arab News/July 14, 2023
A recent survey of 23 countries found that a majority of people polled had a favorable view of the US. This finding suggests that US soft power — non-coercive influence, such as cultural and economic appeal — remains strong.
The Pew Research Center’s 2023 Global Attitudes Survey found that a median of 59 percent of people polled had a favorable view of the US, compared to 30 percent with an unfavorable view. In 20 of the countries, views of the US have improved since 2019; only in Italy and Hungary have they declined, while there is no 2019 data for Australia. The 2023 survey found that only Hungary had a majority (51 percent) that views the US unfavorably.
Positive attitudes toward the US were especially common in Poland (93 percent), Israel (87 percent) and South Korea (79 percent). The Pew report noted that positive views among Poles of the US, NATO and the EU increased after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. At the same time, Polish views of Russia turned markedly more negative. The Polish people are clearly choosing the West over Russia.
The very high level of the US’ popularity in Poland was especially notable when compared to the other Eastern European country included in the survey: Hungary. Only 44 percent of Hungarians expressed favorable views of the US. This result is at least partly linked to Washington’s difficult relations with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban; his supporters were likely to express more negative views of the US and particularly of President Joe Biden.
Often, there is a close link between global views of the US and global perceptions of the American president. This continued to hold true in the 2023 survey, which found that a median of 54 percent of respondents in the 23 countries expressed confidence in Biden, compared to 39 percent who expressed no confidence in him. Interestingly, Biden appears to be more popular in the global attitudes survey than he does among Americans. The FiveThirtyEight poll tracker recently found that 54 percent of Americans disapprove of Biden’s performance, compared to 40.5 percent who approve.
In 14 countries, a majority said they have confidence in Biden “to do the right thing regarding world affairs,” compared to seven countries where majorities expressed a lack of confidence (opinions in Brazil and Indonesia were split). The survey also found that Biden in 2023 is more popular than Donald Trump was in 2019 in all of the countries except Hungary (with no 2019 data for Australia). In multiple countries, Biden is significantly more popular than Trump was. For example, 13 percent of Germans expressed confidence in Trump in 2019, while 67 percent expressed confidence in Biden in 2023. Hungary is the only exception, as 33 percent of Hungarians had confidence in Trump in 2019 but only 19 percent expressed confidence in Biden.
People interviewed for the survey were more likely to say that the US — rather than China — is the world’s leading economy.
Another important finding is that people interviewed for the survey were more likely to say that the US — rather than China — is the world’s leading economy. Among the 23 countries in the poll, a median of 41 percent named the US as the leading economic power, compared to 33 percent who put China in the top spot. This view was especially strong in South Korea, Japan and Israel, where 83 percent, 64 percent and 61 percent, respectively, named the US as the leading economy. Only a majority in Italy (55 percent) said that China is the world’s top economy, although half of Australians agreed. The Pew report noted that the percentage who perceive the US as the top economy increased over the last three or four years in 10 countries.
The survey’s findings also suggest that many people around the world have a nuanced view of the US’ role in global politics and security. While 82 percent agreed that the US interferes in other countries, 61 percent also said that it “contributes to peace and stability around the world.” Indeed, 50 percent of respondents said both that the US interferes and contributes to peace and stability. Black-and-white views of US global policy as either fully good or wholly bad do not represent many people’s understanding of the country’s role in the world.
The Pew Global Attitudes surveys are always fascinating and offer important insights into public perceptions of world affairs. Of course, no poll is ever perfect. The Pew poll does a good job of including a variety of countries in terms of geographic and economic diversity. However, it is overly dependent on countries that are US allies, including European states, Japan, South Korea and Australia, and countries that have long sought a positive relationship with Washington, such as India. Key hostile countries — such as China, Iran and Russia — are not included. No Arab countries are represented in the survey. The exclusion of these and other states appears to be due to resource constraints and difficulties conducting high-quality polling in some countries; therefore, noting their omission is not a criticism of the survey but nonetheless is an important observation to make when interpreting the survey’s usefulness to understanding global perspectives.
While taking such caveats into account, the survey should be reassuring for US political and business leaders. US soft power and economic power remain strong — for now.
• Kerry Boyd Anderson is a writer and political risk consultant with more than 18 years of experience as a professional analyst of international security issues and Middle East political and business risk. Her previous positions include deputy director for advisory with Oxford Analytica.