Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on August 18-19/2023
Nasrallah’s speech is terrorist par excellence, and contains direct, brazen threats to individuals, deputies, activists, Journalists and media outlets
Elias Bejjani/August 16/2023
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/121268/121268/
Our prayers go out to the souls of Lebanon’s latest martyrs, Fadi Bejjani, Elias Al-Hasrouni, Haitian and Malek Touq, who sacrificed themselves on the altar of Lebanon. May their souls Rest in Peace in the Heavenly mansions.
It is so obvious that Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah’s speech on Monday, August 14, 2023 was not at all according to any standard; accommodating, calm and conciliatory, as Hezbollah’s media outlets — their cymbals and mouthpieces — tried to portray it.
The lengthy, bragging, and Hippocratic speech focused on individuals, activists, parliamentarians, journalists and media facilities, with the aim of singling them out, terrorizing and threatening them.
Nasrallah in a cunning, malice, hostile and provocative rhetoric utilized all his talents of terrorism to divide the people of the Kehali town, and to sow discord among them. He focused on those who took to the streets and confronted his group’s terrorist members, threatening that his militia knows them and has their pictures. Meanwhile with a disgusting impudence he called on the judiciary to pursue and charge them, while intentionally turning a blind eye on the armed reception that took place in the Bekaa region for his militia’s terrorist who assassinated the martyr Fadi Bejjani.
He threatened the MTV station, and described it as malicious (without naming it), and held it accountable for everything that happened in the town of Kehali. In the same context, his threat included Nidaa Al-Watan newspaper (without naming it) among many other media facilities and journalists who covered his militia’s Kehali invasion and crimes.
With the same bragging, fabricated and accusative rhetoric, Nasrallah accused with sedition against his so called resistance, the Members of the parliament, partisan activists and journalists who rushed to support the people of Kehali town.
His most dangerous threat was an alleged civil war that all those Lebanese who reject his militia’s occupation, do not acquiesce in his Iranian authority, do not stupidly applaud the charlatanism and hypocrisy of the heresy of his so called resistance, are preparing.
Nasrallah and his mullahs’ masters in Iran must be well aware that the majority of the Lebanese societies, strongly reject their hegemony and occupation, as was clearly shown in the towns of Shuya, Khaldeh, Ain al-Rummaneh and Kehali.
It is worth mentioning that the ministerial statements, which some allege to have legitimized Hezbollah and the lie of its resistance, are mere proposed plans that have no legal or legislative value. The only authority who legislates in Lebanon is the parliament, and up till now, it did not legislate neither Hezbollah’s weapons nor its alleged and criminal resistance. As for Hezbollah’s blatant MP, Muhammad Raad’s statement in which he said, “whoever does not want the resistance does not want the Taif Accord”, it is a brazen threat of a war that Hezbollah is preparing to launch against any Lebanese who wants to implement the Taif Accord, that calls plainly for disarming all Lebanese and non-Lebanese militias, and extending the state’s authority by means of its own forces to all Lebanese territories. It remains that Hezbollah, according to all the Lebanese laws, is a gang of armed criminals and mercenaries and not a resistance. Meanwhile, Hezbollah did not liberate the south of Lebanon from the Israeli occupation in the year 2000, Nor does Hezbollah represent the Shiite community in the Lebanese Parliament which it kidnaps, takes hostage and falsifies its presentation by force, terrorism and sectarianism.
In conclusion, there will be no solutions in Lebanon at any level, and in any domain without the full implementation of the UN resolutions pertaining to Lebanon, namely the Armistice Agreement, 1559, 1680 and 1701.
Long Live Free Lebanon

Unapologetic Shiite cleric blasts corruption in Iraq and Lebanon, and attempts to silence him
BASSEM MROUE and QASSIM ABDUL-ZAHRA/BEIRUT (AP)/Updated Fri, August 18, 2023
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/121371/121371/
A Lebanese Shiite cleric who has angered politicians and religious leaders in Lebanon and Iraq said Friday that groups including Lebanon’s militant Hezbollah are trying to silence voices of dissent within the sect — including his own.
Sheikh Yasser Auda has developed a reputation on social media in recent years for his criticism of corruption in Iraq and Lebanon. He has also spoken out against the use of violence against opponents of Iran-backed groups in the two crisis-hit countries. He vowed in an interview with The Associated Press on Friday not to bow down even if it costs him is life.
His comments came two days after a department within The Supreme Islamic Shiite Council of Lebanon, the country’s top Shiite religious authority, issued a statement naming 15 clerics whom it said are not qualified to provide religious guidance. Auda was at the top of the list and was almost stripped of his religious status. But the council later issued a statement saying that the position of the General Directorate for Religious Advocacy did not represent its point of view.
“I don’t recognize The Supreme Islamic Shiite Council of Lebanon,” Auda said in the sitting room of his modest apartment in Beirut’s predominantly Shiite southern suburb of Mreijeh. Auda said he rejects “corruption by politicians who are protected by religious authorities,” in an apparent reference to the council.
He blamed the divisions within the council regarding the statement about his being unqualified to provide religious guidance to competition among clerics who hope to head the council one day.
One of Auda's harshest comments to go viral on social media, which angered Lebanese as well as Iraqi politicians, came in a speech late last month. “Whoever defends, even with one word, any legislator, Cabinet minister or a leader in Lebanon or Iraq is a liar, corrupt and a partner with them,” he said.
“This speech was spread in Iraq and angered politicians and profiteers, especially Shiites,” Auda said, wondering how the oil-wealthy country could have a crumbling infrastructure and many of its citizens living in poverty.
He also blasted some of the religious leaders in the Hawza, the religious seminary of the Iraqi Shiite holy city of Najaf, angering some influential figures in the city that is home to one of Shiite Islam’s holiest shrines.
An Iraqi official in Baghdad told the AP that some of the religious leaders in Najaf requested that Auda be prevented from making public statements. Another official said some senior members of Iran-backed groups and some politicians sent complaints to Beirut through Hezbollah’s representative in Iraq, Sheikh Mohammed Kawtharani, demanding that Auda be sidelined.
Both Iraqi officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak about religious-related matters. Hezbollah denies any interference in Auda’s case, saying The Supreme Islamic Shiite Council of Lebanon is in charge.
Auda said there is huge pressure on him in Lebanon from Hezbollah and the Shiite Amal group of powerful Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri. He referred to the two groups as the “Shiite Duo” whom he said “strictly prohibit any criticism.”
Auda backed the anti-corruption protests that broke out in Iraq and Lebanon in 2019 that were both mostly put down by Iran-backed Shiite groups in Iraq and Amal and Hezbollah in Lebanon.
“The Shiite Duo don’t like me because I accuse them of mismanagement, failure and for taking part in corruption in the country by signing on all laws that wasted public money,” he said, referring to decades of corruption and mismanagement that threw Lebanon in its worst economic crisis in its modern history.
Auda described the latest attacks against him, including the General Directorate for Religious Advocacy statement, as “moral killing, a killing that lacks a bullet.”
Asked if he fears for his life, Auda said he's not scared to die.
“I am ready to pay the price but don’t hurt my family. I don’t want more than that,” he said.
*Abdul-Zahra reported from Baghdad.

Recent developments in Kahaleh incident probe
LBCI/18 August 2023
It was challenging for the residents of Kahaleh town to initiate the investigation into the Kahaleh incident that occurred ten days ago, as its families were questioned. The residents were surprised by phone calls received by four individuals from Kahaleh at 8:30 PM on Thursday from Army Intelligence, informing them of the necessity to go to Yarzeh on Friday morning to provide their testimonies and be heard regarding what happened in the incident. However, these individuals were the ones who appeared in the videos that were circulated on the day of the incident and afterward.
Following these notifications, meetings intensified at the Kahaleh municipality. Furthermore, it was decided not to have the four young men appear before the investigators, and the army was informed of the locals' stance. In a statement issued by the municipality, they considered it unacceptable to start the investigation by questioning innocent people who were present at that time from the residents of Kahaleh. Instead, the focus should be on the armed group that opened fire with machine guns to intimidate them. This was resisted by the late Fadi Bejjani, who fell to the gunmen's bullets. The evidence is clear in audio and visual recordings. The statement added that the investigation is a duty to achieve justice. However, it should start from a different angle, as the aggressor and the victim cannot be treated equally. On the other hand, security sources confirmed to LBCI that Army Intelligence listened on Friday morning to a number of individuals who were accompanying the truck belonging to Hezbollah. Moreover, the sources indicated that the number of these individuals is three. The security sources pointed out to LBCI that the summonses are a natural procedure. They mentioned that listening to those who were present on the ground on the day of the incident from both sides is part of the clarification process to understand the details of what happened that day. Therefore, those summoned are not accused but rather witnesses, as the sources explained, adding that the army requested any person present on the ground that day to provide their testimony.

Kahale residents, Hezbollah members summoned for interrogation over clash
Naharnet /18 August 2023
Four residents of the town of Kahale have been summoned for interrogation over the latest deadly clash with Hezbollah members, MTV reported. “The four Kahale residents will not go to the Baabda intelligence department on Friday because they are demanding that those who killed Fadi Bejjani be handed over first,” the TV network added. A statement issued by Kahale’s municipality, residents and dignitaries meanwhile said “it is unacceptable for the investigation to begin with the questioning of the unarmed Kahale residents who were present there, instead of focusing on the armed group that opened its machine gun fire at them to terrorize them.”“This is what the martyr Fadi Bejjani tried to repel,” the statement said, adding that the latter was killed by “the bullets of the armed civilians” and that “the evidence is clear with the presence of audiovisual footage.”“The investigation is a duty to fulfill justice, but it should start somewhere else, seeing as the aggressor cannot be equated with the aggressed against,” the statement said. OTV and MTV meanwhile reported that Hezbollah members have been interrogated by the army's intelligence directorate over the incident. OTV said those questioned were the truck's driver and his companion. Kataeb Party chief Sami Gemayel meanwhile said that the summoning of the Kahale residents is rejected, warning against “continuing to undermine equality among the Lebanese.” “Beware that the judiciary become a false witness. We stand by Kahale’s sons, we support the stances issued by them and we will not remain silent over our rights,” Gemayel added. Bejjani and Hezbollah member Ahmed Qassas, both of whom were armed according to videos, were killed in an exchange of gunfire earlier this month after a Hezbollah ammunition truck flipped over on the downhill curve of the international highway that passes through Kahale. The incident started after some residents learned that the truck belonged to Hezbollah. They surrounded it and demanded to know what was inside before a fistfight ensued between two individuals. Footage available online also shows Hezbollah members opening fire and Kahale residents hurling rocks towards the overturned truck and its armed Hezbollah guards. Another video shows a short-distance exchange of gunfire between Hezbollah members and Fadi Bejjani, the Kahale man who was killed in the violence. The identity of the individual who fired the first shot is still unclear.

Bassil offers condolences to Bejjani's family in Kahale
Naharnet/18 August 2023
Free Patriotic Movement chief Jebran Bassil on Friday offered condolences in Kahale to the family of Fadi Bejjani -- the man who was killed in the clash with Hezbollah members following the overturn of a Hezbollah truck in the town. Bejjani’s family members are reportedly supporters of the FPM while he was a member of the Waad Party founded by slain ex-minister Elie Hobeika and currently headed by his son Joe Hobeika. Bassil had criticized Hezbollah in the wake of the Kahale incident, saying “the resistance should be embraced by the Lenanese people, or else it would lost its immunity and strength.”He also called for a defense strategy and said “Shiite unity is not enough for the resistance and the country to be in a good situation.”The FPM for its part said that Kahale's victims fell due to "shortcomings from Hezbollah or the security forces" and warned against "exploitation attempts by politicians and journalists." Bejjani and Hezbollah member Ahmed Qassas, both of whom were armed according to videos, were killed in an exchange of gunfire after a Hezbollah ammunition truck flipped over on the downhill curve of the international highway that passes through Kahale. The incident started after some residents learned that the truck belonged to Hezbollah. They surrounded it and demanded to know what was inside before a fistfight ensued between two individuals. Footage available online also shows Hezbollah members opening fire and Kahale residents hurling rocks towards the overturned truck and its armed Hezbollah guards. Another video shows a short-distance exchange of gunfire between Hezbollah members and Bejjani. The identity of the individual who fired the first shot is still unclear.

'Lebanon not a colony': French senator slams France 'interference' in presidential file
Naharnet /18 August 2023
French senator Nathalie Goulet slammed the French policy in Lebanon and Africa, as she criticized the French interference in the Lebanese affairs. Goulet sarcastically described French envoy Jean Yves Le Drian as "spirited" and criticized him for sending questions to the Lebanese MPs, through the French embassy, about the required qualifications of their future president. "No but seriously!" Goulet exclaimed Thursday on the X platform, formerly known as Twitter. "Lebanon is not a colony," she went on to say, accusing France of interfering in the crisis-hit country affairs. "This is an insult to the Lebanese," the French senator charged.

UNIFIL extension: Lebanon's diplomatic tightrope amid Israeli pressures
LBCI/18 August 2023
While the extension of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) is a routine matter that occurs every year at the end of August, the level of negotiations and improving conditions begins months before. Israel is attempting, through some Western countries, to impose additional demands on UNIFIL, which puts Lebanon in a difficult situation. Thus, the latter has sent a delegation to New York for this purpose. In this context, France is working on preparing a resolution in coordination with the US and UK, reaffirming the previous decision approved last year, granting UNIFIL the freedom of movement without prior notification to or participation of the Lebanese army in patrols. However, Lebanese sources indicated that there had been no noticeable UNIFIL patrols alone inside the towns in recent months. Through reports from the Lebanese army, Lebanon is aware of the sensitivity of the situation in some southern towns. Additionally, it has informed UNIFIL multiple times about the importance of coordination with the army. The foreign ministry is working to find a formula that doesn't anger the international community, meets some of UNIFIL's demands, and avoids issues with the villagers. The foreign ministry hopes that the amendments requested by Lebanon will be considered, aiming to return to the text of the original agreement as adopted by the parliament. However, the matter is not easy, as there are observations raised by the member states in the Security Council, which Lebanon is studying and providing its own comments on, hoping that this will contribute to reaching a common stance. Furthermore, Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib discussed this issue with US Ambassador Dorothy Shea on Thursday as he presented the context of Lebanese observations on the new proposed resolution and Lebanon's demands for amendments to the resolution. On another note, sources told LBCI that Hezbollah has made contacts at the government and the foreign ministry level. This is because the mistake that happened last year should not be repeated, as it violated the language of international resolutions.
Moreover, Hezbollah believed that the substantial amendment that occurred should be reversed, and the old resolution should be reverted to, or a new wording should be reached that links UNIFIL's movement to the army. The sources also said that Hezbollah acknowledged the difficulties and Israeli pressures and believed that it's Lebanon's duty to confront them. If foreign countries have their interests, then we must stand against them.

Hidden passages: Inside the sophisticated Syrian smuggling networks
LBCI/18 August 2023
Smuggling Syrians into Lebanon is not merely an individual moment of crossing through unauthorized crossings from one side to another in the overlapping territories between Lebanon and Syria. This smuggling is orchestrated by networks that have become adept at carrying out these operations, and the recent truck intercepted by the Lebanese army at the Shadra checkpoint is a clear testament to the capabilities of these networks. At first glance, it appears to be a truck loaded with stones as it passes through the checkpoint. However, beneath the stones, the smugglers have created what resembles a room with an iron ceiling equipped with ventilation. Within this concealed compartment, 66 Syrians were hidden, intended by the smugglers to be transported into Lebanese territory after crossing unauthorized crossings. The Shadra checkpoint of the Lebanese army caught the truck red-handed, and the smuggled Syrians were disembarked and then returned to Syria. The Lebanese driver was arrested, and it was discovered that the truck belonged to a smuggling crossing operator. This method is a professional means smugglers use to transport Syrians and bypass checkpoints. Some Syrians seek to remain in Lebanon through this illegal entry. In contrast, others might have already booked a separate smuggling journey by sea to Cyprus or Italy – an illicit thriving trade especially prevalent in northern Lebanon. Moreover, illegal human smuggling routes are also found in the western Bekaa region, as well as in the Shebaa area, along with Qasr and Hermel crossings. However, covert entries by Syrians have succeeded in numerous cases from various points. Still, the Lebanese army has also managed to thwart many previous attempts, whether at the borders directly, within the country, or even in stopping smuggling operations by sea, leading to the repatriation of many Syrians.

Mikati 'might quit', Berri 'surprised' after cancelled legislative session
Naharnet/18 August 2023 
Caretaker Prime Minister may take a break from his duties "if some parties continue to obstruct the government's work," al-Joumhouria newspaper reported Friday. The daily added that Mikati has informed Berri and other officials that he has run out of patience. A legislative parliamentary session was called off Thursday due to a lack of quorum as opposition and Free Patriotic Movement MPs boycotted it. FPM ministers are also boycotting all cabinet sessions that they consider unconstitutional amid a presidential vacuum. Al-Joumhouria said it has learned from circles close to Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri that the latter was surprised that the FPM MPs boycotted Thursday's session. The session was supposed to discuss several laws including the capital control law and the oil and gas sovereign fund draft law that the FPM is calling for. Cabinet and parliament can only convene to discuss urgent matters as Lebanon remains without a president. "What is more urgent than this session's articles," asked Mikati, after the cancelled session. "We have reached a very difficult stage," he said, stressing that if the bank restructuring law and other financial reform laws are not approved, the crisis would deepen in Lebanon. Restructuring the banking sector is a key demand of the International Monetary Fund to start getting Lebanon out of its paralyzing financial crisis. The proposed IMF reforms will likely force most of the country’s 46 banks — a huge number for a nation of 5 million people — to close down or merge.

Mikati meets World Bank's Managing Director of Operations Anna Bjerde
LBCI/18 August 2023
The Caretaker Prime Minister, Najib Mikati, held a meeting on Friday with the World Bank's Managing Director of Operations, Anna Bjerde, in the presence of the Deputy Prime Minister, Saadeh Al-Shami. The meeting was also attended by the World Bank Country Director for the Middle East Department, Jean-Christophe Carret, and the PM Advisor, former Minister Nicolas Nahas. During the meeting, the projects funded by the World Bank in Lebanon were presented, and ways to overcome the obstacles were discussed. Furthermore, Mikati met with the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Abdallah Bou Habib.

Energy Ministry says no sustainability in implementing electricity plan without importing fuel
LBCI/18 August 2023
The Ministry of Energy and Water affirmed on Friday that there is no sustainability in implementing the electricity plan and increasing the power supply without importing fuel, including Iraqi fuel. The Ministry said the funds for the fuel shipment are allocated as part of the $300 million amount, as per the government's decision published in the official gazette last January. Only $193 million has been utilized so far, leaving $107 million. Moreover, it added that the most recent letter of credit for the fuel shipment is worth $58 million (not $80 million as previously stated). The Minister of Finance has approved this letter of credit and requests the Central Bank of Lebanon to execute it. The Ministry then urged anyone with questions to address the relevant authorities, namely the government, the Ministry of Finance, and the Central Bank. "Any other statements are misleading to the public and are far from the truth, bordering on bias towards banks and private generators," it mentioned.

Sweden raises terror alert after threats from Hezbollah, other groups over Quran burning
Associated Press/18 August 2023
Sweden's Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson has said that Hezbollah and other "terrorist groups" have urged their sympathizers to take revenge for the Quran burnings that have taken place in Sweden. He said that Swedish interests abroad had already been targeted, including an attempted attack on the diplomatic mission in Beirut last week and the storming of Sweden's Embassy in Baghdad last month. "There are also several examples of terrorist groups that have urged their sympathizers around the world to take revenge for the Quran burnings that have taken place in Sweden.. Among them are Hezbollah in Lebanon, al-Shabab in Somalia and al-Qaida," Kristersson said at a joint news conference with the justice minister and the heads of the Swedish Security Service and national police. Earlier this month, an assailant threw a Molotov cocktail at Sweden's embassy in Beirut, causing no casualties, amid anger over recent Quran desecrations. The Molotov cocktail did not explode and the perpetrator managed to run away. Last month, Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah in a video address called on Muslims to demand their governments expel Sweden's ambassadors.
He called for a demonstration, urging muslims to attend mosques carrying their Qurans. He later said that if governments of Muslim-majority nations do not act against countries that allow the desecration of the Quran, Muslims should "punish" those who facilitate attacks on Islam's holy book. Sweden raised its terror alert to the second-highest level on Thursday after a string of public desecrations of the Quran sparked angry demonstrations across Muslim countries and threats from militant groups. The Swedish Security Service, known as SÄPO, lifted the "terror threat level" one notch to "high," the fourth of five levels, for the first time since 2016. The move reflects Swedish concerns that repeated Quran-burnings this year by a handful of anti-Islam activists have made the Scandinavian country a prime target for Islamic extremists. Sweden has come under intense criticism from Muslim countries for allowing the public desecrations of the Quran, most of them by an Iraqi asylum-seeker who says he is using his freedom of speech to criticize Islam. Sweden has no blasphemy laws and Swedish authorities have allowed the Quran-burnings to take place outside Parliament, Iraq's Embassy and a mosque in Stockholm.
Kristersson has repeatedly criticized the acts while noting they are protected by Sweden's extensive freedom of expression. "Not everything that is legal is appropriate," he said. "I think that if you care about the security situation in Sweden, especially now when we have formalized a higher threat level, you should consider whether what you doing is good for our country or not." Kristersson said the government is stepping up its joint efforts with government agencies, the security service, the Armed Forces and foreign intelligence services to prevent attacks against Sweden and Swedish interests abroad. He said some attacks had already been thwarted, but didn't give details. SÄPO chief Charlotte von Essen warned that the higher alert would last for some time. "We have gone from being considered a legitimate target to a prioritized target for violent Islamism globally," she said. Sweden and neighboring Denmark, which has also seen public desecrations of the Quran, have both stepped up border controls and identity checks at crossing points. The terror alert in Denmark is also at the second-highest level. The Quran-burnings have complicated Sweden's attempt to join NATO, with Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan long holding up the process. However, Erdogan said at a NATO summit last month that he would send Sweden's accession documents to the Turkish parliament for ratification.

Mansouri to visit Saudi Arabia in September
Naharnet/18 August 2023 
Acting Central Bank Governor Wassim Mansouri will visit Saudi Arabia in September for a series of meetings, LBCI television said. Al-Joumhouria newspaper reported Friday that Saudi Ambassador to Lebanon Walid Bukhari had invited Mansouri to visit the kingdom during their recent meeting, in order to “continue the discussion of the financial-monetary files.” In their meeting, Mansouri and Bukhari had discussed “financial affairs related to the role and responsibilities of the Central Bank in addition to mulling the possibility of offering support for the security and military forces,” the daily added.

Report: Paris may suspend Le Drian's mission
Naharnet/18 August 2023  
Following the Lebanese opposition’s rejection of the latest French letter that demanded answers related to the presidential file, the French officials in charge of the Lebanon file have started “evaluating” the situation, a media report said. “There are indications that there will be a new French approach in dealing with the file, topped by the suspension of the mission of French presidential envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian,” al-Liwaa newspaper reported on Friday. Le Drian is expected to return to Lebanon in September. The main components of Lebanon’s parliamentary opposition have rejected dialogue with Hezbollah in the wake of the Kahale clash, vowing to escalate their political confrontation.

UNRWA Suspends Services in Palestinian Refugee Camp in Lebanon after Clashes
Beirut: Asharq Al Awsat/18 August 2023
The United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) has suspended services at the largest Palestinian refugee camp in Lebanon to protest the presence of armed fighters around its schools and other facilities within the area.
Deadly clashes broke out last month at the Ain el-Hilweh camp near the southern city of Sidon after Islamist gunmen tried to assassinate Fatah leader Mahmoud Khalil, forcing hundreds to flee. "The Agency does not tolerate actions that breach the inviolability and neutrality of its installations,” UNRWA said in a statement. It said that schools in the camp were unlikely to be available for 3,200 children at the start of the new school year. "UNRWA reiterates its call on armed actors to immediately vacate its facilities, to ensure unimpeded delivery of much needed assistance to Palestine Refugees," the agency added.

Lebanon's Caretaker PM Says Economic Stability at Stake with Stalled Laws
Asharq Al Awsat/18 August 2023
Lebanon's failure to approve a string of crucial economic laws to pull the country back on its feet threatens the country's future economic stability, caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati said on Thursday. A financial meltdown that started in 2019 has weakened the currency by more than 90%, paralyzed the financial system and frozen depositors out of their savings. The government estimates the financial sector's losses at over $70 billion, said Reuters. Mikati said parliament should convene a special session that passes, in one package, long-pending plans to revamp the financial sector and restructure banks, to help overcome the crisis. Mikati said four years had passed without a single draft financial reform act becoming law. "All these need solutions immediately - if they are not resolved and the parliament does not convene and make it all some kind of one package to be decided on, there won't be economic stability in the country," he said in parliament after a session could not be convened for lack of a quorum. Mikati said the failure to take action would push Lebanon "from one crisis to another." The crisis erupted after decades of profligate spending and corruption among the ruling elite, some of whom led banks that lent heavily to the state. "I fear if we delay more in passing the legislation, the consequences will be very detrimental on the economy of the country," Mikati said. If the status quo continues, public debt could reach 547% of GDP by 2027, the IMF said recently. Lebanon signed a staff-level agreement with the International Monetary Fund last year but has not met the conditions to secure a full program, which is seen as crucial for its recovery from one of the world's worst financial crises. The debt-strapped country was committed to the agreement with the IMF and the financial reforms needed to help obtain crucial donor support needed for recovery, Mikati added.

Lebanon's C.bank Reports $8.6 bln in Liquid Foreign Assets
Asharq Al Awsat/18 August 2023
Lebanon's Central Bank said on Thursday that its liquid foreign assets stood at $8.57 billion as it disclosed the numbers for the first time in a push for greater transparency after the departure of its long-time governor Riad Salameh. The central bank did not provide comparison figures from earlier periods, but at the start of the financial crisis in 2019, the foreign currency reserves were estimated at more than $30 billion and have been declining ever since. Reuters calculations showed the country's net liquid foreign currency reserves stood at $7.3 billion after $1.27 billion in liquid external liabilities were excluded.
Under Salameh, who served as governor from 1993 until July 31, the central bank did not disclose foreign asset and liability numbers in its bi-monthly balance sheet reports. In June 2022, Salameh said the central bank had more than $11 billion of "usable reserves", but it was not immediately clear whether that number could be compared with current figures. The central bank said in its Thursday statement its obligations included $106 million in deposits and $660 million in loans from Gulf states.

Lebanon… To Whom It Does Not Concern
Mustafa Fahs/Asharq Al Awsat/18 August 2023
Regardless of how powerful they may become, rulers need to use their sense of hearing. Aversion to listening to the people’s voice inevitably alienates the governed sooner or later, no matter how convinced they are of the ideology or how robust their partisan affiliation is. When those in positions of power do not listen to their subjects, supporters, or even opponents, when their police prohibit criticism and skepticism or ban their subjects from raising their voices, this creates only a surface image of cohesion shattered once one looks a little deeper.
Although the “Shiite duo” (Amal Movement and Hezbollah) have the tools to contain the critics in their strongholds, it cannot continue to deny what life is like for the residents or to ignore their grievances. The situation has become untenable, as those in power cannot confront the pains borne by residents of their areas with haughtiness and hubris, nor can they turn a deaf ear to those advising them out of friendship. These are blatant attempts to silence opposition among its supporters and hinder its spread, as demonstrated by flagrantly forcing anyone who dared criticize his leaders or their governance to make public apologies.
One could succeed in forging reality, presenting an image of cohesion, and compelling absolute support for him and his policies. However, given the severity of living conditions across the country, and the total denial of its authorities, is leading it to outright subjugation of the people and even the rulers’ base, which has sacrificed a lot in the past. Nonetheless, they are now being met with the denial of their right even to criticize and are being silenced by force as their rulers assault their person, sect, and homeland.
If the matter genuinely does not concern them - that is, the Duo - the question becomes whether anyone has spoken to them frankly about the economic crisis and mismanagement that have exposed their limitations, that it has become obvious that they lack the merit and capacity needed to replace the state, and that their initiatives and programs have failed to meet the needs of their base. Indeed, despite all the clamorous slogans and promises they made, opposition is expanding, albeit slowly, and they are increasingly resorting to terrorizing locals as a result. After accusing some independent voices of treachery, they are publicly humiliating any dissension that comes from their ranks.
The videos of individuals forcibly making public apologies for their criticism of an official’s practices or the leadership of the “Duo,” in which they individuals declare their total allegiance to their approach and role in protecting the faith and the homeland, remind us of the Soviet era. There, only one individual, one party, one book, one newspaper and one color, were permitted. It seems that the “Duo” has not learned from history, and Imam Ali (peace be upon him) tells us that “The arrogant do not learn.”
If brewing discontent among its base and the teachings of Imam Ali do not concern the “Duo,” there remains a more difficult and pressing question: When will the “Duo” realize that in a society an ideologically and religiously pluralistic society like Lebanon, imposing one way of being is impossible. The fact is that regardless of how dominant partisanship may be in all religious institutions, eliminating their diversity is not possible. Thus, it would be better to address the statement issued by the Higher Islamic Shiite Council, which no longer resembles its founders (Imam Al-Sadr and Imam Shams al-Din).
The statement issued against a group of clerics opposed to the politics and ideology of the “Duo” is nothing but a testament to confusion rattling this religious institution, whose role has been undermined and whose independence has been totally nullified. The young cleric, Samer Ghanoui, spoke truth to power in his response to the decisions of the Religious Reporting Authority, saying that “This statement is another testament to my innocence of corruption.” As for Yasser Audi’s response, it also showed great courage: “Yes, I deviate from extremist Shiite doctrine. I am a deviant who opposes the politicians and their behavior, and if they want my turban, they can have it.”
And so, while the scale of support for the “Duo” among the members of its sect is undeniable, it could be the sect is just as afraid of the “Duo” as it is keen on safeguarding it.

On the Mafia that Propelled Lebanon Back to the Stone Age!
Hanna Saleh/Asharq Al Awsat/18 August 2023
Israeli Minister of War Yoav Gallant, who threatened to take Lebanon to the Stone Age, missed something. The mafia-militia coalition imposing its grip on Lebanon has beaten him to it. The sectarian-quota-based spoil-sharing regime, both those “in government” and “the opposition.” Indeed, the March 8 coalition and used to be the March 14 coalition have established a decapitated state as “caretakers” implemented the measures the two coalitions had agreed upon.
Since the "Independence movement" of 2005 was aborted and the Quatartite Agreement was concluded, the sectarian militia-like forces running the country have been carving up the country and the state to split it amongst themselves, sharing its ministries, institutions, and public revenues; then, twelve years ago, they began plotting its people's savings. Najib Mikati, the current caretaker prime minister, knows all about it.
Lebanon has spent 4 of the 18 years since the “Independence Movement” was aborted without a president and around 5 years and a half under a caretaker government.
Under these caretaker governments, state institutions were paralyzed and hollowed out, services became virtually nonexistent, and Lebanon’s security agencies and military stood on shaky grounds. Indeed, things got so out of hand that we have reached a stage in which we are pleading for “subsistence” for the armed forces, with modest material assistance given to the military to keep it standing.
Throughout this time, the mafioso sectarian alliance ruled through fatwas, and the farce peaked with "the strong reign,” with Gebran Bassil bragging, in Davos, that he could teach the world how to govern without budgeting, brushing aside the country’s many bankruptcies, mass unemployment, the destitution seen across its territory, and its banks withholding its people's savings.
Their investment in sectarian divisions drove their despotism to extreme lengths. Reassured by the robustness of their leadership, they held on to their shares firmly. After 2015, they killed time with proposals for “dialogue” propositions on the one hand and calls for reforms on the other. All the while, they brushed the two most prominent issues facing the country aside.
The first is that presidential vacancies had been the rule. They schemed to marginalize this office, which is entrusted with rehabilitating the country and enforcing respect for its laws. The second is the statelet operating within the state. They stayed away from this fully equipped statelet with an army negating the constitution and preventing the restoration of sovereignty through the extension of the state’s authority... With their sectarian quotas, they drafted an unconstitutional election law and they skewed popular representation.
The incident in Kahaleh has brought back memories of the horrors seen during the civil war, and the militia warned against interference with its supply routes in the aftermath.
At the time of writing, the authorities are doing everything they can to brush over the crimes exposed by the "forensic audit" of the Central Bank. Still running free, the regime’s accountant, Riad Salameh, who engineered the grandest "Ponzi" scheme in history to line the pockets of the mafioso-militia alliance, enjoys political, security, and judicial protection. He has not been held to account despite the audit leaving no doubt that he deliberately destroyed the banking sector and the Lebanese economy: robbing depositors to finance the despots, among them including politicians, militias, governments, those who have monopolies (a cartel of sectarian forces), bankrupt banks, smugglers, and those running the "parallel economy" - all to build a bridge the president’s seat through plunder.
It is great that we are now beating drums of repudiating Hezbollah’s wanton activities. It is good that we have seen a late awakening after Lebanon was turned into barren scorched earth. Nonetheless, it is a party to the entrenched spoil-sharing regime, in which it was a partner to Hezbollah, that is beating it. Indeed, we have a surreal political consensus to oppose accountability for the crimes exposed by the “forensic audit” that demonstrated how $76 billion had been looted from the Central between 2015 and 2020 (equivalent to 230 percent of the GDP, which amounted to $31 billion in 2020). Indeed, over 100 billion may have been looted once the squalor of the past 3 years is accounted for!
A political movement aimed at broadening the audit of all government caves and banks should have been formed, given the crimes and pillage the audit has proved that politicians had committed, with billions of politicians’ deposits smuggled abroad and records falsified to concealed and give credibility to claim that “the lira is fine.”
These crimes have left the people hungry, and voices should have been raised denouncing the scandalous silence of the judiciary. Indeed, the judiciary did nothing despite the international arrest warrants and Western sanctions against this "evil gang!” Nothing happened because more than 120 deputies are legislating the seizure of “state assets” to loot them.
They left a oversaw the work of the "fact-finding" committee, which included representatives of sectarian forces, and came together to defend the interests of the banking cartel, refusing to hold the bankers and adding their signature on a deal to demarcate our the maritime borders to Hezbollah’s, relinquishing our sovereignty and wealth as part of a deal between Israel and Iran overseen the US!
Under this mafioso alliance, Lebanon has been left without electricity, hospitals, universities, ports, or infrastructure; security is shaky and rights are violated systematically. Most of its institutions and shops have shut down. The country has turned to dust and its elderly now guard empty houses in its mountains after the country pushed those with merit and fresh graduates out. They have taken Lebanon further back than the stone age, haven’t they Gallant? However, the consecutive shocks are bound to open the doors to a state run by the people, who will not keep quiet as Lebanon lies in the gutter!

Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on August 18-19/2023
Pentagon denies US military to cut Iran’s land route into Syria
Jared Szuba/Al Monitor/August 18, 2023
The Pentagon on Thursday reiterated its denial that US forces fighting the Islamic State group have moved to cut off the Iran-backed militias' access to a key border crossing between Iraq into Syria. Pentagon Press Secretary US Air Force Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder told journalists that recent news reports in Arabic-language media alleging such were "false" and that US forces are not involved in security on Iraq's border with Syria. "I'm not tracking any significant shift in forces as it pertained to the defeat ISIS mission in in Syria," Ryder said in response to a question by Al-Monitor on Thursday.
"We don't provide border security. That's the role of the Iraqi government," he continued. The Pentagon's denial came after the top commander of US-led coalition forces also pushed back on the reports. “The coalition is not preparing for military operations to cut off anybody except Daesh [IS]. We remain focused on Daesh,” US Army Maj. Gen. Matthew McFarlane told reporters during a phone briefing from Baghdad on Wednesday. Why it matters: The Qaim-Albukamal road is a key access route for militias backed by the Quds Force of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) flowing weapons and personnel into Syria. Iran supports the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, but in recent years has sought to move advanced weapons systems into Syria in what US and Israeli officials have seen as a deliberate effort to threaten Israel.
American forces withdrew from Al-Qaim and turned the area over to the full control of Iraqi security forces in 2020 amid a wider US drawdown following IS' territorial defeat just a few miles beyond the border in eastern Syria. IRGC-linked militias and other pro-Assad groups have a heavy presence around Albukamal on the Syrian side of the crossing. The area is straddled by US-backed Kurdish-led fighters across the Euphrates River to the northeast and other US-backed Syrian forces more than a hundred miles to the southwest at the coveted Al-Tanf border crossing along the Baghdad-Damascus highway.
The resulting bottleneck makes the Al-Qaim route an enticing option for Iran-backed groups seeking to flow weapons and personnel into Syria.
Israel has continued a quiet campaign to strike such groups to prevent the approach of projectile missile systems toward its borders. The context: The local reports come as the Biden administration renews its calls for Iran to de-escalate hostilities with US forces and US-aligned states across the Middle East amid new progress towards a detainee exchange.
Iraq's Defense Minister Thabit Muhammad al-Abbasi visited the Pentagon last week for talks on future US support to Baghdad following the campaign against IS. Meanwhile, concerns are growing within Israel about the possibility of a three-front conflict with Palestinian groups and Iran-backed groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon. Axios reported Wednesday that top US general Mark Milley heads to Israel this weekend amid worries in the Pentagon about Israel's military readiness as thousands of reservists threaten to not show up for duty in protest of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's move to weaken Israel's Supreme Court. Attacks by Iran-backed groups on US troops in Iraq and Syria have fallen quiet in recent months after the White House authorized airstrikes on the Syrian side of the Iraqi border in March, killing at least eight militia fighters in retaliation for prior drone attacks on US bases. Pentagon officials have remained in constant dialogue with Israeli counterparts over the risks that their air campaign could trigger further retaliation against US troops in Syria.
The US has maintained its presence at al-Tanf despite the occasional attacks. In October 2021, US troops temporarily evacuated the main base ahead of an incoming drone barrage which Pentagon officials later described as designed to kill. Russian military pilots have also dialed up the pressure on the US position at al-Tanf, surveilling the site from the air and bombing an unoccupied perimeter outpost last year, amid what a senior US military official recently described as an emerging pattern of Russian-Iranian coordination in Syria.
Russia has repeatedly harassed US MQ-9 drones pursuing IS targets in recent months, leading the Pentagon to temporarily deploy top-of-the-line stealth F-22 fighter jets to the region in June to help ward off the Kremlin’s pilots.
The official, who spoke last month on the condition of anonymity, said he's seen evidence of intelligence sharing and "operational-level planning" between the IRGC Quds Force and Russian forces in Syria, but acknowledged to Al-Monitor that he had no evidence the attacks by Iran-backed groups were carried out using Russian intel.
Coalition commander Maj. Gen. McFarlane told reporters at the Pentagon earlier this month that he does not see a connection between Russia's actions and Iran's goal of expelling US forces in Syria. "I think that harassment is, if you will, based on multiple interests for Russia but also for Syria as they're trying to frustrate us," McFarlane said. "You'll hear explanations of why those... unsafe, unprofessional incidents are happening. I've been deliberate about maintaining the focus on IS, ensuring we are not putting anybody else at risk as we do those operations," he added. Roughly 900 US troops remain in Syria under the 2001 Authorization of the Use of Military Force (AUMF), which does not permit them to deploy lethal force against groups other than IS and Al-Qaeda in Syria unless acting in self-defense. Overt US movement into Albukamal — which is controlled by Syrian pro-regime forces — would almost certainly trigger a significant escalation. Know more: The Pentagon appears to be holding off for now on approving a plan to place US Marines on commercial tanker ships to deter Iran’s attempt to seize such vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.

Republican senators rip 'dangerous precedent' set by Iran prisoner deal
Elizabeth Hagedorn/Al Monitor/August 18, 2023
WASHINGTON — A group of Republican senators say unfreezing billions of dollars in Iranian funds to secure the release of five Americans sets a bad precedent and will only encourage more hostage-taking.
The mounting congressional criticism of the deal announced last week could complicate an already unstable context in which the agreement to bring home Siamak Namazi, Morad Tahbaz, Emad Shargi and two unnamed Americans is unfolding. Last week, Iran transferred four US citizens from Evin Prison to house arrest, where they are expected to remain under Iranian guard until some $6 billion in Iran’s energy revenue frozen under US sanctions is transferred from South Korea to an account in Qatar. The fifth American included in the deal was already under house arrest. In an Aug. 13 letter to Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, 26 Republican senators accused the administration of providing Iran with a “ransom payment” in exchange for the detained Americans.
“While we firmly believe the United States must use every appropriate resource to secure the release of American citizens wrongfully detained overseas, this decision will reinforce an incredibly dangerous precedent and will enable the Iranian regime to increase its destabilizing activities across the Middle East,” read the letter led by Sens. Jim Risch, R-Idaho, and Tim Scott, R-S.C. The released funds could only be used for humanitarian-related purchases such as food and medicine under supervision by the US Treasury Department, according to multiple sources familiar with the deal. Blinken defended the arrangement as one in which “the United States will have significant oversight and visibility,” stressing that Iran will not have direct access to the funds.  "This is a way of actually facilitating their use strictly for humanitarian purposes and in a strictly controlled way," Blinken told reporters.
The senators requested an in-person briefing and written responses to a set of questions surrounding the potential for Iran to take advantage of the humanitarian arrangement, given its long record of sanctions evasion.
They make the case that granting Tehran access to $6 billion it can spend on humanitarian goods will free up money it could then spend funding terrorism across the Middle East, bolstering its elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps or stepping up nuclear enrichment.
“Financial assets are fungible,” the senators wrote. “How can your departments guarantee that the funds will only be used for humanitarian purposes?”Congressional opposition to the prisoner deal with Iran has mostly broken down along party lines, as it did when former President Barack Obama inked the 2015 nuclear agreement amid near-uniform opposition from congressional Republicans and a small minority of Democrats.
Obama also took heat for his deal to bring home five wrongfully detained Americans. Coinciding with their release, Washington sent $400 million in cash to Tehran to resolve a decades-old debt for military equipment the Iranians purchased from the United States but never received. It paid Iran a further $1.3 billion in interest as part of the arms settlement.  “We warned that this dangerous precedent would put a price on American lives,” read the letter to Blinken and Yellen. “Seven years later, the current administration is providing a ransom payment worth at least fifteen times that amount.” Meanwhile, hostage advocates have urged critics to wait until the Americans are safely back in the United States before making political fodder of the deal. Neda Sharghi, whose brother Emad has been held by Iran since 2018, told CBS’ "Face the Nation" her family is on “pins and needles” waiting for his full release. “We can have discussions about how to prevent this from happening in the future,” Sharghi said. “But we don't do that on the backs of innocent Americans.”

Saudi Arabia and Iran Take Steps Towards Developing Relations, Implementing Beijing Agreement
Riyadh: Abdulhadi Habtor/Asharq Al Awsat/August 18/2023
Saudi Arabia and Iran took another step towards developing relations and implementing the Beijing Agreement signed last March by agreeing to enhance cooperation in all fields. During a joint press conference Thursday at the Saudi Foreign Ministry in Riyadh, the two country’s foreign ministers launched a new stage of bilateral relations built on shared interests and mutual respect. Saudi FM Prince Faisal bin Farhan said that he discussed regional and international issues of common interest with his Iranian counterpart and assured him of the Kingdom's aspiration to boost bilateral relations. During the press conference with his Iranian counterpart, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, Prince Faisal said that the resumption of the Saudi and Iranian diplomatic missions and their respective ambassadors in each other's capitals is essential to improving bilateral relations. The Saudi Foreign Minister said that the meeting continues the steps taken toward resuming diplomatic relations and marks a pivotal moment for regional security. He highlighted Saudi Arabia’s and Iran's sincere and serious desire to implement the agreement’s terms that benefit both countries and peoples by enhancing mutual trust, expanding cooperation, and strengthening regional stability. The Saudi FM reiterated the Kingdom's keenness on discussing mechanisms to activate agreements previously signed with Iran, especially those related to security and economy, stressing the importance of maintaining consultation and coordination between the two countries’ foreign ministries during the coming period. Prince Faisal added that Riyadh is looking forward to Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi's visit to the Kingdom upon an invitation from the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques, King Salman bin Abdulaziz.He stressed the need to increase cooperation and coordination, looking forward to a new level in relations and the joint endeavor to boost ties based on shared interests and mutual respect.
Regional cooperation
The Iranian Foreign Minister described his talks with his Saudi counterpart as "fruitful,” “Iran and Saudi Arabia are two important countries in the region of Western Asia and the Islamic world. Both sides are determined to expand our relations in all fields,” he said.
Regional dialogue
The minister proposed the idea of a regional dialogue to his Saudi counterpart, asserting his belief that both nations can work on immediate and urgent issues, including those related to regional relief and rescue. Amir-Abdollahian explained that achieving regional security and development is an idea that cannot be divided. “We believe ​​regional security and development are interrelated and belong to all regional actors.” He also extended Iran’s profound gratitude to Saudi Arabia for cooperation and services to Iranian pilgrims during the Hajj pilgrimage, hoping that the Umrah will soon resume.
Raisi's invitation
Amir-Abdollahian revealed that Raisi accepted the invitation and would do it "at the appropriate time," indicating that the talks and exchange of delegations between the two countries in the coming period will lay the groundwork for the leaders' meeting. The two officials also discussed sports and holding friendly matches between the two national teams. The Iranian minister also announced his country's endorsement of Riyadh's bid to host Expo 2030. Both sides agreed to cooperate in public and parliamentary diplomacy and exchange delegations between the two countries. Last March, Saudi Arabia, and Iran agreed to resume diplomatic relations and reopen their diplomatic missions. The Saudi foreign minister visited Tehran on an official visit in June, during which he met the Iranian President.
Joint committee
On his visit to Riyadh, Amir-Abdollahian was accompanied by the new Iranian ambassador to Saudi Arabia, Alireza Enayati, according to the state-run ISNA news agency.
Before leaving Tehran, Enayati told ISNA that relations between the two countries are moving forward after less than six months of the Beijing agreement. He said the ambassadors will soon settle in Riyadh and Tehran, adding that the visit is an appropriate opportunity to continue the dialogue between the foreign ministers. On Wednesday, Iranian media quoted Enayati as saying that his country looks forward to consolidating the economic component in bilateral relations with Saudi Arabia. He said it was agreed to hold a joint committee between the two countries, serving as a roadmap for relations to boost trade. The Iranian diplomat asserted the need to choose a constructive path through dialogue, expressing full confidence that regional countries will deepen their cooperation and not be interested in foreign powers trying to destroy the relations.

Saudi crown prince meets Iran's foreign minister in Jeddah
Adam Lucente/Al Monitor/August 18, 2023
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman held a meeting with Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian on Friday, another indication of improving relations between the two countries. Amir-Abdollahian spoke to the crown prince, known by his initials MBS, for 90 minutes in Jeddah, afterward describing the talks as “very good, direct and fruitful.” They specifically discussed security and development in the region, Iran’s semi-official Press TV reported. The official Saudi Press Agency reported that the two explored ways to enhance bilateral relations and exchanged views on regional and international issues. Background: Saudi Arabia severed ties with Iran in 2016 after protesters attacked the Saudi embassy in Tehran in response to the execution of Shiite cleric Nimr al-Nimr in the kingdom. In March, the two countries agreed to resume relations in a deal brokered by China. On Thursday, Amir-Abdollahian flew to Riyadh, where he met his Saudi counterpart, Prince Faisal bin Farhan. The two discussed bilateral relations, ways to enhance cooperation, and regional issues. After the meeting, Amir-Abdollahian described Iranian-Saudi relations as “on the right track.”The meeting between Amir-Abdollahian and MBS was unannounced. Iran’s official Islamic Republic News Agency reported early on Friday that the diplomat had flown to Jeddah to meet with “high-ranking Saudi officials.” Why it matters: The meeting marks the first time MBS has met an Iranian official in Saudi Arabia while crown prince. The last visit of an Iranian foreign minister to Saudi Arabia was that of Mohammad Javad Zarif in 2015. MBS ascended to crown prince in 2017. The meeting between MBS and Amir-Abdollahian also constitutes the highest level of talks between Saudi and Iranian officials since the resumption of relations. Saudi-Iranian relations have steadily improved since the two agreed to restore diplomatic ties. Amir-Abdollahian and Prince Faisal also met in April in Beijing, and Iran reopened its embassy in Saudi Arabia in June.

Saudi Crown Prince, UK PM Discuss Bilateral Ties over Phone
Asharq Al Awsat/18 August 2023
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, Prime Minister of Saudi Arabia, received a phone call from the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom Rishi Sunak on Thursday. During the call, they reviewed aspects of cooperation between the two countries and ways to enhance and develop it in all fields. They also exchanged views on developments in the regional and international arenas and the efforts exerted in this regard. The UK Prime Minister hailed the Kingdom's influential role in contributing to a solution to the Ukrainian crisis through the initiative of the meeting of national security advisors.
For his part, the Crown Prince affirmed the Kingdom's keenness to exert efforts to contribute to achieving peace and stability and push for a political solution to the Ukrainian-Russian crisis.

Iran Supreme Leader: Saying "Military Options are on the Table" is Meaningless
Asharq Al Awsat/August 18/2023
Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said the phrase "military options are on the table" to the IRGC's deterrence power and capabilities has become "trivial, meaningless, and worthless."Khamenei was speaking during a meeting with the Supreme Assembly of Commanders and Officials of the Iranian Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC), the first meeting post coronavirus, and the assassination of Qassem Soleimani, the head of al-Quds Force, who was killed by a US air strike in Iraq in 2020. The leader accused his country's enemies of stirring up crises and trying to distort the image of IRGC, describing it as the "largest counterterrorism" organization in the world. US officials hinted at their readiness for several scenarios, including a military solution to deter Iran from developing nuclear weapons. Khamenei pointed to the enemy's policy of creating crises, undermining the country's security, and disrupting people's lives.However, he asserted that the enemy's defeat and the nation's victory are inevitable through efforts to bring about national unity, encouraging people's participation, helping people, hope, and enthusiasm toward the realization of the goals of the revolution. Khamenei said "forgetting the facts and truths of the Revolution by the Iranian nation is one of the goals of the world's Satans."He considered the CIA, Mossad, and British MI6 spy agencies to be the main perpetrators behind the design and creation of the crises. "Of course, they also use internal and external agents and Western-oriented and indifferent elements, but the main perpetrators are the spy services."The meeting comes about a month before the first anniversary of the protests sparked by the death of the young woman, Mahsa Amini. The IRGC participated effectively in the campaign to quell the protests through the Basij forces and the intelligence service.
Khamenei compared the 1979 revolution in Iran to the French and Bolshevik revolutions in Russia and described the IRGC as a "rare phenomenon" among the great revolutions that lasted more than four decades. Khamenei echoed the statements of his predecessor, the first Iranian Supreme Leader, Khomeini, in which he warned against infiltration into the state apparatus. Khamenei defended the role of the IRGC in the economy, infrastructure, and construction of roads, dams, and oil refineries. He also implicitly warned against the involvement of the Guards' leaders in corruption, saying everyone could make mistakes.
Recently, 3,000 American soldiers crossed the Red Sea towards the US bases in the Gulf when the US-led joint international forces warned commercial ships and tankers of approaching Iranian waters. Washington and Tehran have begun the early stages of a deal to release US prisoners in Iran in exchange for freeing Iran's frozen assets. The Wall Street Journal reported that Iran had slowed the pace at which it is accumulating near weapons-grade enriched uranium and has diluted some of its stockpiles. US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby declined to confirm these reports. Blinken said on Tuesday he would welcome any Iranian steps to de-escalate its "growing nuclear threat." The British newspaper, the Financial Times, reported on Wednesday that the US is pushing Iran to stop selling armed drones to Russia as part of discussions on a broader "unwritten understanding" between Washington and Tehran to de-escalate tensions and contain a long-simmering nuclear crisis. Meanwhile, Iran’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee Chairman, Vahid Jalalzadeh, said that his country is preparing to hold talks to release the frozen assets in Iraq and India. Jalalzadeh denied, in a statement to the state-run ISNA news agency, that the current negotiations were about the nuclear file, noting that when the US raised the issue of prisoners, Iran said it wanted to free its foreign funds in exchange for prisoners. Iran also demanded that Washington stop pressuring South Korea, Iraq, and India to freeze its money. State Department Deputy Spokesman Vedant Patel said in a daily briefing that the issue of five US citizens released from Evin Prison is separate from all other matters related to the Iranian regime. "We will continue to take steps to hold the Iranian regime accountable for their malign, destabilizing activities in the region, as well as more broadly." He asserted that the US will coordinate with allies and partners and continue holding the Iranian regime and the Russian Federation accountable for using these drones in Ukraine.

Russia says destroys drones in Moscow, Black Sea
Associated Press/18 August 2023
Russian forces have destroyed Ukrainian drones targeting Moscow and its Black Sea Fleet, officials said, the latest in a surge of attacks on the capital and the flashpoint waterway. Russia's defence ministry said its air force downed a Ukrainian drone over the capital at about 04:00 (0100 GMT) on Friday. "The UAV, after being exposed to air defence weapons, changed its flight path and fell on a non-residential building in the Krasnopresnenskaya embankment area of Moscow," the ministry said on Telegram. Moscow's mayor said emergency services were on the scene, but that early reports indicated there were no casualties. "The wreckage of the UAV fell in the area of the Expo Centre, and did not cause significant damage to the building," Sergei Sobyanin said on Telegram. State-run news agency TASS reported that one of the walls of the venue's pavilion had partially collapsed, citing emergency services. "The area of the collapse is about 30 square meters (323 square feet)," emergency services told TASS. TASS also reported that the airspace near the international airport of Vnukovo was briefly closed, with departures and arrivals delayed, citing the aviation service. The expo centre, on the Krasnopresnenskaya embankment of the Moskva River, hosts regular exhibitions and trade shows, according to its website. The venue is 100 metres (328 feet) from Moscow-City, an office block in the capital's main business district that was struck twice within days by debris from downed drone strikes this month. Until a series of attacks in recent months, the capital had not been targeted during the conflict in Ukraine, which began more than a year ago. Last week, Russia destroyed a Ukrainian drone over Moscow's west, with debris landing in a park on the Karamyshevskaya embankment. In May drones were shot down near the Kremlin, less than five kilometres from the Expo Centre. On July 30, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that "war" was coming to Russia, with the country's "symbolic centres and military bases" becoming targets.
- Black Sea attack -
Hours before the strike on Moscow, Russia thwarted a Ukrainian marine drone attack on its warships in the Black Sea, the latest in a string of assaults on its fleet. Russia's defence ministry said the drone was destroyed late on Thursday night by navy patrol ships, 237 km (147 miles) southwest of Sevastopol -- the base of its Black Sea Fleet on the Moscow-annexed Crimean peninsula. Attacks from both sides have escalated in the Black Sea since Russia pulled out of a deal that had allowed safe export of Ukrainian grain through the shipping hub. On August 4, Russia said it had repelled Ukraine's attempted drone attack on its Novorossiysknaval base in the sea, while a Ukrainian security source said the strike on a warship at the base was successful. The attack came hours after a civilian cargo ship sailing through the Black Sea from Ukraine reached Istanbul in defiance of a Russian blockade. Moscow announced last month that it would consider any ships nearing Ukraine in the Black Sea as potential military cargo carriers. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said the ship was using a "new humanitarian corridor" Kyiv established after the grain deal collapsed. Days ago, a Russian navy ship fired warning shots and boarded a Turkish-owned but Palau-flagged cargo vessel that was sailing to a Ukrainian river port. Russia has also ramped up attacks on Ukraine's port infrastructure in the Black Sea and the Danube River, a vital export route since the grain deal's scrapping, in recent weeks. Russia's attempts to control shipping on the Black Sea come against the backdrop of a military counter-offensive launched in June by Ukrainian forces, which is supported by new Western equipment but making slow progress.

Putin, Raisi Discuss Tehran Joining BRICS
Asharq Al Awsat/18 August 2023
Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Iranian counterpart Ebrahim Raisi discussed Iran's possible membership of the BRICS. "The parties discussed issues related to cooperation in international and regional affairs, particularly taking into account Iran's full membership of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and its interest in joining the BRICS group," the Kremlin press service said. In an attempt to break its international isolation, Iran launched a campaign months ago for its accession to the BRICS group. The BRICS grouping of emerging economies - Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa - will discuss its possible expansion at a summit in South Africa next month. TASS news agency added that Putin and Raisi reaffirmed their support for further developing bilateral trade, transport, and logistics relations. The two sides expressed their satisfaction with the current high level of Russian-Iranian relations. Earlier this month, Russia's deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov visited Tehran, discussing Iran's aspirations to join BRICS with his Iranian counterpart, Ali Bagheri Kani. Ryabkov told reporters his country will support Tehran's request, but joining BRICS takes time. Last week, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian visited Pretoria and discussed with his South African counterpart the path of Iran's accession to the BRICS group. Raisi will travel to Johannesburg to participate in the BRICS summit to push his country's efforts. It is still being determined whether the Russian president will participate in the summit.

Israel sells Arrow 3 to Germany as Ukraine war fuels demand
Ben Caspit/Al Monitor/August 18, 2023
TEL AVIV – The United States' long-awaited approval of the $3.5 billion sale of Arrow 3 air defense missiles by Israel to Germany is a clear outcome of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Despite the grim circumstances, Israel's ambassador to Berlin, Ron Prosor, views the deal announced this week as being of particularly symbolic significance. "Think about it," Prosor told Al-Monitor. "Today, 80 years after the Holocaust of European Jewry, Israel is becoming a country that will protect Germany from ballistic threats." Prosor himself has special reason to be excited: his paternal grandfather, Berthold Proskauer, was a decorated officer in the German army, a Jewish patriot, who lived in central Berlin. The 1933 rise of the Nazi Party and its horrific burning of Jewish books led him and his family to flee their homeland and emigrate to Palestine, which later became the modern State of Israel. Now, 90 years later, the grandson will witness the largest arms deal in the history of Israel's military industry, a deal aimed at providing Germany and Europe with the best air defense and interception systems in the world.
"This is a historic day without a doubt," Prosor said. "It's impossible not to be excited."
Echoing similar sentiments, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued a statement, saying, “Seventy-five years after the Jewish people were crushed to ashes in Nazi Germany … the Jewish state gives Germany, another Germany, tools to defend itself … What Israeli pride. What a historic turning point.”The Americans' approval followed an intense Israeli-German effort over more than a year to obtain their support as quickly as possible. The Arrow 3 is Israel’s most advanced interception system, designed to hit conventional and unconventional ballistic missiles at altitudes of 100 to 200 kilometers (160-320 miles) outside earth’s atmosphere. Israel developed it jointly with the United States, which also footed a significant part of the bill. US approval is therefore required for every export transaction of the system.
"Ostensibly, there should not have been any problem with American approval," a senior Israeli security source told Al-Monitor, speaking on the condition of anonymity. "But it took time. The US has a significant lobby that protects its homegrown military industry, and the Americans have similar interception and defense measures, like the Thaad system, which are competing with us," the source added. "They were reluctant to lose this deal to Israel."
Germany has already paid an advance of $600 million to start the manufacture of the batteries, which are expected to be delivered in early 2025. The deal between Israel and Germany is the culmination of a significant and surprising arms race launched shortly after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
"We are barely able to schedule all the visits, meetings, requests and demands," a senior Israeli security official told Al-Monitor more than a year ago, speaking on the condition of anonymity as Europe and the world watched in horror as Russia launched its aggressive invasion of Ukraine. Delegations from dozens of countries rushed to Israel, considered a leading arms exporter specializing in sophisticated aerial interception systems, with endless shopping lists. "We’re being stormed. Everyone wants to buy everything, here and now," the security source told Al-Monitor. The circumstances have since changed. What was supposed to be a brief Russian victory lap around Kyiv has turned into a catastrophe, pitting Russian President Vladimir Putin against much of the world.
"The whole perception of security in Europe has changed. Nothing is taken for granted anymore," the same senior Israeli security official recently noted. "A country like Germany, which was built on pacifism and ignored any danger of war, took a sharp turn almost overnight. They understood that they fell asleep for decades and now, like many other countries, are rushing to fill in the gaps."
Israel is one of the world's largest exporters of weapons, military equipment, defense systems and ammunition. In 2022, the Israeli defense industry broke its own record with $12.5 billion in sales. "The reasons for the large increase in exports," a senior source in Israel's defense industry told Al-Monitor on the condition of anonymity, "is first and foremost the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which returned all of Europe to the nightmare of yesteryear and led to a dramatic increase in defense budgets in many countries, as well as the Abraham Accords, which raised Israeli defense exports to countries in the Middle East from $1 billion to nearly $3 billion." This year is also expected to be a record-breaker. "The defense industries and arms exports are the only good economic news for Netanyahu's government since the legal legislation began and the protests that followed," a senior Israeli political source told Al-Monitor on the condition of anonymity, referring to the deeply controversial government-promoted judicial overhaul that has taken a major social, economic and diplomatic toll on Israel.
The source added, "In every conversation, Netanyahu or Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has with senior figures in the global economy or credit rating agencies, the first thing they raise is the dramatic increase in Israel's defense exports. This is the figure that somehow keeps the Israeli economy on its feet given the devastating effects of the regime coup." The reason the Germans chose the Arrow 3 system and preferred it over similar American systems, such as the Thaad, is no secret. "First," a senior Israeli Aerospace Industries source told Al-Monitor, "our system is considered the best of what is currently on the shelf, it is ready for use, it is about a third cheaper than the alternative, it is the most operational, and the supply lines and dates are relatively short." The Germans expressed interest in the Arrow 3 back in 2020, but the deal failed to take off, literally. Russia's invasion of Ukraine was a game changer, prompting serious security concerns in Germany and leading Chancellor Olaf Scholz to shift priorities and focus on the country's defense needs. "The change in Germany is really unbelievable," said the senior Israeli political source. "It symbolizes what is happening all over Europe and in many other countries, but in Germany it is really incomprehensible. "Take the Green Party, one of the strongest in Germany, a few years ago there were talks to purchase Israeli UAVs by the German Air Force, the Greens were really appalled by it and vehemently opposed. They did not agree to Germany acquiring armed drones, the kind that can attack and kill. This was contrary to their pacifist worldview and the German policy of 'no more war.' Now, all this is distant history. The far right, along with the Social Democrats and the Greens, all want safeguards and interception. The debate is over."

US Imposes Sanctions on Two Armed Groups in Syria
Washington: Ali Barada/Asharq Al Awsat/18 August 2023
The United States imposed on Thursday sanctions on two Türkiye-backed Syrian armed groups and some of their leaders accused of human rights abuses in areas under their control. “The US Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) is designating two Syria-based armed militias and three members of the groups’ leadership structures in connection with serious human rights abuses against those residing in the Afrin region of northern Syria,” it said. "An auto sales company owned by the leader of one of the armed groups is also being designated,” read the press release. The Treasury said that “the Afrin region of Syria is largely controlled by a patchwork of armed groups, many of which use violence to control the movement of goods and people in their respective territories.”“Today’s action demonstrates our continued dedication to promoting accountability for perpetrators of human rights abuses, including in Syria,” said Under Secretary of the Treasury for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence Brian E. Nelson. “The United States is committed to supporting the Syrian people’s ability to live without fear of exploitation from armed groups and without fear of violent repression.”The sanctions include the militia of Suleiman Shah Brigade which is “a prominent element of the armed opposition to the Syrian government and a component of the Syrian National Army, a coalition of Syrian armed opposition groups.”“The brigade subjects the populace of this area to abductions and extortion,” added the Treasury. "The brigade has targeted Afrin’s Kurdish residents, many of whom are subjected to harassment, abduction, and other abuses until they are forced to abandon their homes or pay large ransoms for return of their property or family members.” Sanctions were also imposed on the Hamza Division. “The Hamza Division, another armed opposition group operating in northern Syria, has been involved in abductions, theft of property, and torture. The division also operates detention facilities in which it houses those it has abducted for extended periods of time. During their imprisonment, victims are held for ransom, often suffering sexual abuse at the hands of Hamza Division fighters,” according to the Treasury. “Mohammad Hussein al-Jasim (Abu Amsha) is the leader of the Suleiman Shah Brigade. Under Abu Amsha’s leadership, members of the brigade have been directed to forcibly displace Kurdish residents and seize their property, providing vacated homes for Syrians from outside the region who are often related to fighters in the brigade. Abu Amsha also ordered the brigade to kidnap local residents, demanding ransom in return for their release and confiscating their property as part of an organized effort to maximize the brigade’s revenue, likely generating tens of millions of dollars a year.”Sanctions also included Al-Safir Oto which is a car dealership owned by Abu Amsha. “Al-Safir Oto is headquartered in Istanbul and operates multiple locations in southern Türkiye that are managed by commanders of the Suleiman Shah Brigade. Abu Amsha allegedly owns Al-Safir Oto in partnership with the leader of the Syrian armed group Ahrar Alal-Sharqiya, Ahmad Ihsan Fayyad al-Hayes.” Mohammad Hussein al-Jasim is being designated “for being responsible” for “the commission of serious human rights abuses in relation to Syria,” said the Treasury. Moreover, Walid Hussein al-Jasim was sanctioned, and he is “a younger brother of Abu Amsha who also holds a leadership role in the Suleiman Shah Brigade, including serving as the head of the brigade when Abu Amsha left Syria to fight in Libya.” Sayf Boulad Abu Bakr who is “the leader of the Hamza Division and its public face, appearing in numerous propaganda videos produced by the Hamza Division” was also designated.

US Approves Sending F-16s to Ukraine from Denmark and Netherlands
Asharq Al Awsat/18 August 2023
The United States has approved sending F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine from Denmark and the Netherlands to defend against Russian invaders as soon as pilot training is completed, a US official said on Thursday. Ukraine has actively sought the US-made F-16 fighter jets to help it counter Russian air superiority, Reuters said. Washington gave Denmark and the Netherlands official assurances that the United States will expedite approval of transfer requests for F-16s to go to Ukraine when the pilots are trained, the official said. "We welcome Washington's decision to pave the way for sending F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine," Dutch Foreign Minister Wopke Hoekstra said on messaging platform X, formerly known as Twitter. "Now, we will further discuss the subject with our European partners."Denmark also said providing Ukraine with the jets would now be discussed. "The government has said several times that a donation is a natural next step after training. We are discussing it with close allies, and I expect we will soon be able to be more concrete about that," Danish defense minister Jakob Ellemann-Jensen told news agency Ritzau on Friday. A coalition of 11 countries was due to start training Ukrainian pilots to fly the F-16 fighter jets this month in Denmark. Denmark's acting Defense Minister Troels Poulsen said in July that the country hoped to see "results" from the training in early 2024. NATO members Denmark and the Netherlands have been leading international efforts to train pilots as well as support staff, maintain aircraft and ultimately enable Ukraine to obtain F-16s for use in its war with Russia. Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte in May said the Netherlands was seriously considering providing Ukraine with F-16's, as it is currently phasing out the fighter jets from its own armed forces. According to figures from the Dutch defense ministry the Netherlands currently has 24 operational F-16's which will be phased out by mid-2024. Another 18 of the jets are currently available for sale, of which 12 have been provisionally sold. Secretary of State Antony Blinken sent letters to his Danish and Dutch counterparts assuring them that the requests would be approved, the US official said. "I am writing to express the United States’ full support for both the transfer of F-16 fighter aircraft to Ukraine and for the training of Ukrainian pilots by qualified F-16 instructors," Blinken said in a letter to the two officials, a copy of which was seen by Reuters.
Blinken said, "It remains critical that Ukraine is able to defend itself against ongoing Russian aggression and violation of its sovereignty."He said the approval of the requests would allow Ukraine to take "full advantage of its new capabilities as soon as the first set of pilots complete their training." US President Joe Biden endorsed training programs for Ukrainian pilots on F-16s in May. In addition to training in Denmark, a training center was to be set up in Romania. Kyiv will not be able to operate US-built F-16 fighter jets this coming autumn and winter, Ukraine air force spokesperson Yuriy Ihnat told Ukrainian television late on Wednesday. US officials have privately said that F-16 jets would have been of little help to Ukraine in its current counteroffensive and will not be a game changer when they eventually arrive given Russian air defense systems and contested skies over Ukraine.
The F-16 is made by Lockheed Martin.

Ukrainian Drone Damages Building in Moscow, Disrupting Air Traffic
Asharq Al Awsat/18 August 2023
A Ukrainian drone smashed into a building in central Moscow on Friday after Russian air defenses shot it down, disrupting air traffic at all the civilian airports of the Russian capital, Russian officials said. A Reuters witness who was in the area described hearing "a powerful explosion". Reuters images showed workers and emergency workers inspecting a damaged roof of a non-residential building which the drone hit. The Russian defense ministry and Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said there were no casualties after air defenses destroyed a drone which then fell on a non-residential building of Moscow's Expo Center complex in the early hours of Friday. The Expo Center is a large spread of exhibition pavilions and multi-purpose halls, fewer than 5 kilometers away from the Kremlin. "At about 4 am Moscow time, the Kyiv regime launched another terrorist attack using an unmanned aerial vehicle on objects located in Moscow and the Moscow region," the Russian defense ministry said. There was no immediate comment from Kyiv. Air-traffic was briefly suspended at four major airports around the capital - Vnukovo, Domodedovo, Sheremetyevo and Zhukovsky - though later they reopened. Russia's air transport agency said seven flights were redirected to alternative airports. Drone airstrikes deep inside Russia have increased since a drone was destroyed over the Kremlin in early May. Civilian areas of the capital were hit later in May and a Moscow business district was targeted twice in three days earlier this month. Both Ukraine and Russia deny targeting civilians and civilian infrastructure in the nearly 18-month war."Ukraine typically does not comment on who is behind attacks on Russian territory, although officials have publicly expressed satisfaction over them. The New York Times reported in May that United States intelligence agencies believed Ukrainian spies or military intelligence were behind the drone strike on the Kremlin.

Sweden Raises Terror Threat Level After Quran Burnings
Stockholm: Asharq Al Awsat/18 August 2023
Sweden raised its terrorist alert to 4 from 3 on a scale that runs from 1 to 5, reflecting a “high threat”, said Sweden's domestic security service, SAPO, on Thursday. It follows a series of international condemnations of Quran burnings in the Scandinavian country. "The reason for this decision is the deteriorated situation with regard to attack threats to Sweden and the assessment that the threat will remain for a long time," the head of the SAPO, Charlotte von Essen, said in Stockholm. It is the first time since 2016 that the country has changed its threat level to four, according to AFP. This decision was caused by several reasons including increased ISIS threats to carry out terrorist attacks in Europe. In July, two men burned a Quran in front of the parliament in Stockholm. In June, this also happened in front of Stockholm's largest mosque. Last week, a Molotov cocktail was thrown at the Swedish Embassy in Beirut, though it did not explode. At the weekend, al-Qaeda called for attacks against the country. Several countries have issued updated travel advice to those wishing to visit Sweden. On Sunday, Britain's Foreign Office warned travelers that "terrorists are very likely to try and carry out attacks in Sweden." On July 26, the US warned its citizens to be extra cautious when traveling to Sweden due to possible terrorist attacks.

US Urges Sudanese Army, RSF to Cease Fighting in South Darfur
Asharq Al Awsat/18 August 2023
The United States called on the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) to cease renewed fighting in Nyala, South Darfur, and other populated areas, which have caused death and destruction. "We are particularly alarmed by reports of indiscriminate shelling carried out by both the RSF and SAF that have caused civilian casualties," the US State Department said in a statement. It also stressed that civilians should not pay the ultimate price for the "warring parties’ unconscionable actions." "Both sides must comply with their obligations under international humanitarian law, including those regarding the protection of civilians." The statement further slammed the daily casualties caused by what it described as the "senseless conflict." "More innocent civilians are killed, wounded, and left without homes, food, or livelihoods. The parties must end the bloodshed. There is no acceptable military solution to this conflict."

1st Ship to Use Ukraine's Corridor Arrives in Istanbul
Asharq Al Awsat/18 August 2023
The first vessel that used Ukraine's Black Sea corridor is crossing through Turkey's Bosphorus Strait, a Reuters witness said on Friday. The Hong-Kong-flagged Joseph Schulte container ship that left the Russian-blocked Ukrainian Black Sea port of Odesa earlier this week had been in the port since Feb. 23, 2022, the day before the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Ukraine last week announced a "humanitarian corridor" in the Black Sea to release cargo ships that have been trapped in its ports after the termination of the main grain exports deal last month. Moscow has not indicated whether it would respect the shipping corridor, and shipping and insurance sources have expressed concerns about safety. Ukraine said the corridor will be primarily used to evacuate ships that were stuck in Ukrainian ports. Local broadcasters have said the ship will anchor at Ambarli port in the south of Istanbul.

Russia Charges Jailed US Citizen with Espionage
Asharq Al Awsat/18 August 2023
Russia has charged a jailed American citizen with espionage, state news agencies reported, upping the pressure on US President Joe Biden's administration which has been trying to find a way to bring several detained citizens back home from Russia. Russia's RIA and TASS news agencies said that Moscow's Lefortovo court had remanded Gene Spector in pre-trial custody on suspicion of espionage, which is punishable with a jail term of 10 to 20 years. "The court granted the request of the investigation to detain a US citizen Spector on charges under Article 276 (espionage) of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation," TASS quoted an unidentified source at the court as saying. The news agencies did not report any details of the new charges, but said the court session was held behind closed doors as the case materials were classified. Spector is already serving a 3-1/2-year sentence after pleading guilty to his role in bribing an assistant of ex-Russian Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich, according to the news agencies. Spector was born in what is now St. Petersburg and then moved to the United States. Before his 2021 arrest, he served as chairman of the board of Medpolymerprom Group, a company specializing in cancer-curing drugs, TASS said. Speaking on CNN, White House spokesperson John Kirby said the administration was still collecting information about the case and had no comment yet. A State Department spokesperson said they were aware of reports of charges against a US citizen in Russia and were monitoring the situation, but declined to comment further. The United States has been talking to Russia about ways to bring back several American citizens detained in Moscow, including Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich and former US Marine Paul Whelan. The Kremlin has confirmed that it has held some discussions with Washington but has repeatedly said swaps can only be considered after trials and has cautioned that US attempts to speak publicly about the talks will undermine efforts. Russia's ambassador to the United States, Anatoly Antonov, said on Wednesday that Moscow and Washington operate an effective channel to swap prisoners. The Journal's Gershkovich was arrested in March on espionage charges that he, the Journal and Washington deny. Russia says he was caught red handed. Former US Marine Whelan is serving a 16-year sentence in a Russian penal colony after being convicted of espionage charges that Washington also says are a sham. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke by phone to Whelan this month. Last December, US basketball star Brittney Griner was released in a prisoner swap, having been sentenced to nine years in a penal colony for possessing vape cartridges containing cannabis oil - which is banned in Russia - after a judicial process labelled a sham by Washington. Since the war in Ukraine began in February 2022, the United States has repeatedly told its citizens to leave Russia due to the risk of arbitrary arrest or harassment by Russian law enforcement agencies. In June, Michael Travis Leake, a US musician and former paratrooper, was shown in court, locked in a metal cage. He was arrested on drug dealing charges. Reuters was unable to reach him for comment. Brazil this year refused a US request to extradite Sergey Cherkasov, who Western intelligence agencies say is a Russian spy who tried to use a false identity to infiltrate the International Criminal Court (ICC).

Fears For Displaced as Sudan War Spreads in Darfur
Asharq Al Awsat/18 August 2023
Fighting between two rival generals has spread to cities in war-ravaged Sudan's south, witnesses said Friday, raising concerns for hundreds of thousands who have fled violence in the Darfur region. The vast western region as well as the capital Khartoum have seen some of the worst bloodshed since fighting erupted on April 15 between Sudan's army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Battles resumed late Thursday in the North Darfur state capital of El Fasher, witnesses said, disrupting nearly two months of calm in the densely populated city that has become a shelter from the shelling, looting, rapes and summary executions reported in other parts of Darfur. "This is the biggest gathering of civilians displaced in Darfur, with 600,000 people in El Fasher," said Nathaniel Raymond of the Humanitarian Research Lab at the Yale School of Public Health. One resident told AFP: "As night fell, we heard battles with heavy weapons from the city's east."Witnesses also reported fighting in Al-Fulah, the capital of West Kordofan state which border Darfur. The conflict had already expanded to North Kordofan state, a commercial and transportation hub between Khartoum and parts of Sudan's south and west. Numerous rights groups and witnesses who fled Darfur have reported the massacre of civilians and ethnically driven attacks and killings, largely by paramilitary forces and their allied Arab tribal militias. Many have fled across the western border to neighbouring Chad, while others have sought refuge in other parts of Darfur, where the International Criminal Court is looking into allegations of war crimes. The region has long been the site of deadly fighting since a war that erupted in 2003 and saw the feared Janjaweed -- precursors of the RSF -- unleashed on ethnic minority rebels. Fighting in the latest conflict has concentrated on El Geneina, the capital of West Darfur state, where the United Nations suspects crimes against humanity have been committed. Nyala, Sudan's second city and capital of South Darfur state, has been in the throes of recent fighting, with reports of thousands of residents fleeing. The United States on Thursday urged the warring sides "to cease renewed fighting in Nyala... and other populated areas, which has caused death and destruction". "We are particularly alarmed by reports of indiscriminate shelling carried out by both" parties, State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said in a statement.
"Every day this senseless conflict continues, more innocent civilians are killed, wounded, and left without homes, food or livelihoods."Further east, a resident of Al-Fulah said "the RSF are confronting the army and the police, and public buildings have been set on fire during their fire exchanges". "Shops were looted and there are dead on both sides, but no one can get to the bodies in this chaos," said another witness in Al-Fulah. The conflict has killed at least 3,900 people nationwide, according to a conservative estimate by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project. The actual toll is believed to be much higher, as the fighting restricts access to many areas. The heads of 20 global humanitarian organisations said in a joint statement on Tuesday the international community has "no excuse" to stall on helping civilians. It noted that two appeals for aid to support some 19 million Sudanese "are just over 27-percent funded. Please change that". The signatories pointed out that more than 14 million children need humanitarian aid and over four million people have fled the fighting, either within Sudan or as refugees to neighbouring states. With the arrival of the rainy season in June, epidemic risks have multiplied and damage to crops risks exacerbating food insecurity. The United Nations voiced particular concern for women and girls caught up in the conflict, amid "shocking incidence of sexual violence, including rape". Leila Baker of the United Nations Population Fund said this week that "we've seen an increase of more than 900 percent in the conflict areas of gender-based violence".

International Community Divided on Niger Coup Response
Reuters/18 August 2023
More than three weeks after a military coup in Niger forced out a democratically elected government, the international community appears hopelessly divided on how to handle the new status quo, with fault lines appearing even among Western allies, analysts say. Former colonial master France remains steadfastly opposed to the new regime in Niamey while Russia, predictably, sees the coup as a chance to boost its influence, with everyone else somewhere in between. France immediately condemned the coup, and let it be known that it might support African armed action to re-instate Mohamed Bazoum as president. But Niger's neighbors, who would most likely take charge of military intervention, let their own ultimatum addressed to the new regime pass without sending in troops. West African military chiefs started a two-day meeting in Ghana on Thursday to discuss a possible armed intervention after the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) agreed to activate a "standby force to restore constitutional order" in Niger, but did not say when, or even whether, it would be used.
'Calamitous consequences'
One ECOWAS member, Cape Verde, has come out strongly against the use of force, with President Jose Maria Neves saying efforts to restore constitutional order should not "under any circumstances include military intervention or armed conflict". A view shared by Solomon Dersso, managing director at the Amani Africa research group, who said armed intervention could trigger "calamitous consequences", including the entire region being engulfed in war. Instead of acting as a deterrent, sanctions and the threat of military action had given the new government in Niamey ammunition to stir nationalist sentiment among Nigeriens "and ride on their anti-neo-colonial sentiments", Dersso wrote. Analysts said military action would need support from the African Union, a pan-African body, which has been silent since meeting on the Niger question on Monday, a sign of internal divisions. Mali and Burkina Faso, where military governments took over in coups in recent years, have expressed their support for the new government in Niamey.
'Confused, muddled'
Subtle but important differences have meanwhile emerged between the two western powers most involved in Niger, the United States and France. Washington keeps a permanent force of 1,100 soldiers in Niger to fight extremists linked to Al-Qaeda and the ISIS group, and "we don't want to see that partnership go", said Sabrina Singh, a spokeswoman for the Defense Department in Washington. "We have invested hundreds of millions of dollars into bases there, trained with the military there, we really want to see a peaceful resolution," Singh said. Officially, it is US policy to abstain from military cooperation with governments coming to power through a coup. "But that's a flexible definition," said Colin Clarke, director of research at the Soufan Group consultancy. "The American position is confused, muddled," Clarke told AFP. France, which keeps 1,500 troops in Niger for the battle against extremists with the help of local soldiers, has meanwhile stuck to its inflexible position towards the West African country's new rulers. President Emmanuel Macron's government last week gave unconditional support to ECOWAS when the military option was still favored by the organization. Our position is to support ECOWAS," a French diplomatic source told AFP. "It is up to ECOWAS to take its decision, either in favor of sanctions, or in favor of a military intervention threat," the source said. European Union heavyweight Germany on Thursday called on the EU to impose sanctions "against the putschists".
'Very transparent'
Analysts said Russia is a beneficiary of western divisions, with the Wagner paramilitary group -- loyal to Moscow despite cooler ties with the Kremlin since a short-lived rebellion in June -- waiting in the wings. Wagner is active in the Central African Republic, in Sudan, in Mali despite Bamako's denials, and is looking for a role in Burkina Faso. Niger, with its wealth of natural resources, looks an attractive target for the group. "Wagner is very transparent about what they are there for," Clarke said. "They are not going to lecture the regime on human rights. They are here to get access to resources and in return they will provide political security." The Sahel region's insurgents, meanwhile, continue to strike. On Tuesday 17 Niger soldiers were killed by suspected extremists near the western border with Burkina Faso "in a terrorist ambush", the defense ministry said.

Travis King: Who Is the US Soldier Who Crossed into North Korea?
AP/18 August 2023
North Korea confirmed for the first time on Wednesday that it is holding American soldier Travis King, saying he crossed the border last month to escape racism and mistreatment in the US military and society.
Who is Private King?
Private Travis T. King, who joined the US Army in January 2021, is a cavalry scout with the Korean Rotational Force, which is part of the US security commitment to South Korea. He was assigned to an element of the US 1st Armored Division and was now administratively attached to a unit in 4th Infantry Division, a US army spokesperson said. His record includes routine awards such as the National Defense Service Medal, the Korean Defense Service Medal and Overseas Service Ribbon.
His family is from Racine, Wisconsin.
Why did he cross to North Korea and where is he now?
King's motivation and exact location remain unconfirmed.
He "harbored ill feeling against inhuman maltreatment and racial discrimination within the US Army" and wanted to stay in the North or a third country because he was "disillusioned at the unequal American society," according to North Korean state news agency KCNA.
KCNA said he was held by the North Korean army after he crossed, but did not elaborate. The Pentagon on Tuesday said that it could not verify King's alleged comments, but that it was working through all channels to bring him home. King's uncle, Myron Gates, told ABC News in August that his nephew, who is Black, had experienced racism during his military deployment, and after he spent time in a South Korean jail, he did not sound like himself. Another uncle, Carl Gates, told the Daily Beast his nephew had been "breaking down" after the death of a 7-year-old cousin this year.
How did he get to the border?
King had served nearly two months in detention in South Korea and was being escorted to Seoul's Incheon International Airport to fly home and face probable disciplinary action. But he never made it to his plane. He had passed alone through security to his gate at the airport, where he told American Airlines staff that he lost his passport, an airport official told Reuters. Escorted by an airline worker with the approval of a South Korean justice ministry official, King left the boarding zone and was seen exiting through a departure gate. The next day King joined a bus tour of the heavily fortified Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) that has separated the two Koreas since the Korean War ended in 1953 with an armistice.
What happened at the border?
Roughly 24 hours after leaving the airport, he sprinted into North Korea while touring the Joint Security Area, which sits astride the border. Sarah Leslie, a tourist from New Zealand who was on the tour with King, said she saw him suddenly run across the border as US and South Korean troops tried to stop him. "I probably only saw him running for like a few seconds and that's all it would have taken to get across the border," she said.
What disciplinary action was he facing?
Two US officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said he had been due to face US military disciplinary action, without saying what the action was linked to. A South Korean court ruling said King pleaded guilty to assault and destruction of public goods stemming from an incident in October and on Feb. 8 the Seoul Western District Court fined him 5 million won ($4,000). He faced two allegations of assault, and pleaded guilty to one instance of assault and destroying public property for damaging a police car during a profanity-laced tirade against Koreans, according to court documents. King spent time in a South Korean prison, however, in lieu of paying the fine.

Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on August 18-19/2023
Iran arrests 12 female activists in crackdown ahead of protest anniversary
Miriam Berger/The Washington Post/August 18, 2023
Iran on Wednesday detained at least 12 female activists in what rights groups say is an escalating campaign to deter protests to mark the anniversary of the “woman, life, freedom” uprising that swept the country last year.
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The protest movement against clerical rule was sparked by the death of Mahsa Amini, 22, in the custody of the country’s “morality police” after an alleged violation of Iran’s conservative dress code for women.
The 12 women arrested in the Caspian Sea province of Gilan have histories of “anti-security activities,” according to state media reports on a statement by the Intelligence Ministry, which is affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The ministry accused two of the women, without presenting evidence, of receiving money and training from Western security services, including Israel’s.
Two journalists stand trial in Iran for stories that sparked protests
The women’s whereabouts and the exact charges they face remain unknown, and their families have had no contact with them, according to Shiva Nazarahari, an activist based in Europe who works with the Volunteer Committee to Follow-Up on the Situation of Detainees, an informal network that operates inside and outside Iran.
Nazarahari and other rights activists called the accusations baseless — but said they were part of an effort at suppression and intimidation seemingly meant to deter protesters from marking the first anniversary of Amini’s death next month.
Iran, U.S. advance deal to swap prisoners, free oil funds
“The regime is definitely frightened of the anniversary coming up,” said Hadi Ghaemi, executive director of the New York-based Center for Human Rights in Iran. “It believes there is a large appetite in the country for protests and resistance again. Otherwise, it would not be rounding people up.”
Amini’s death last September ignited months of nationwide demonstrations against the country’s system of clerical rule and gender discrimination set up after the 1979 revolution. Women and young people were primary leaders in the movement, which became defined by a popular chant: “Woman, life, freedom.” Images of women defiantly burning their mandatory hijab, or headscarf, inspired waves of solidarity demonstrations abroad.
The protests posed the biggest a crisis of legitimacy for the Islamic republic — and Tehran in response launched a brutal crackdown and internet outages. At least 500 people, and probably scores more, were killed, according to HRANA, a Virginia-based activist news agency. At least seven men have been executed for protest-related convictions. Thousands of others were injured or arrested.
As water shortages intensify Iran’s heat wave, authorities shift blame
While daily demonstrations have died down, Iran’s clerical leaders have struggled to reassert control and enforce the hijab, amid ongoing frustration with the country’s collapsing economy, global isolation, and water shortages during a summer heat wave.
In recent weeks, Tehran has increased morality police patrols and deployed cameras and other forms of surveillance to catch women violating hijab rules, according to news reports. Shopkeepers, teachers and employers have been fined for violations and threatened by authorities if they do not enforce the requirements. Iran’s parliament is expected to pass a contentious, more restrictive hijab law codifying many such intensified practices. The draft bill imposes strict penalties on anyone who violates hijab requirements or encourages others to do so, with punishments ranging from fines and prison to employment and travel bans.Iran’s morality police resume hijab patrols after reprieve during protests
The proposed legislation has sparked controversy in Iran, where some see the mandatory hijab, a pillar of clerical power, as having lost long-term viability in a society fundamentally changed by the protests.
Wednesday’s arrests came amid daily reports of the detention and sentencing of activists. Authorities have in particular continued to target members of the Kurdish minority in the country’s northwest, where Amini was from and the protests began. Abuse and torture are rife in Iranian prisons, according to Human Rights Watch, a leading rights group based in New York, and Iran’s judicial system is notoriously stacked against political detainees, in violation of international laws.
On Wednesday, Iran also sentenced prominent film director Saeed Roustayi to six months in prison for showing his film “Leila’s Brothers,” a drama set against the backdrop of Iran’s financial crisis, at the Cannes film festival last year without official permission. Last month, judges sentenced three prominent activists for not wearing the hijab and declared them “mentally ill,” part of a pattern of “weaponizing” the medical treatment of detainees, according to Ghaemi. Students at universities — which were a beating heart of the uprising — have reported an increase in threatening calls, summonses and interrogations by intelligence officials ahead of the anniversary, according to campus activists. The trials of the two Iranian journalists who first broke Amini’s story — Niloofar Hamedi and Elahe Mohammadi — are also ongoing, behind closed doors. They are accused of “colluding with hostile powers” — a charge they deny, according to their families, and which could carry long sentences or the death penalty.

Saudi-Israeli peace is no pipe dream
Haisam Hassanein/Washington Examiner/August 18, 2023
Is a Saudi-Israeli peace deal just around the corner or still just a long-term hope? The Wall Street Journal reported that Washington and Riyadh “have agreed on the broad contours of a deal” for the Saudis to recognize Israel. Yet when asked about that story, a State Department spokesman seemed to throw cold water on it, saying that normalization has “a long road to go with an uncertain future.”
What may get lost among these dueling headlines is the degree to which Riyadh is laying the foundation for peace so that when a diplomatic breakthrough becomes possible, the new relationship has a foundation on which it can rest. Diplomatic statements, positive local media coverage, tolerance toward people-to-people interactions, and changes in textbooks are all preparing the Saudi public for a potential normalization deal with the Jewish state.
Traditionally, Riyadh adopted an unfriendly stance toward Israel due to its conflict with the Palestinians. Clerics in Friday sermons would lash out at Washington and Jerusalem over the plight of Palestinians. Conspiracy theories about Israel abounded. In 2011, Saudi newspapers claimed a vulture was caught inside the kingdom spying for Israel’s Mossad. A May 2022 report from the Institute for Monitoring Peace and Cultural Tolerance in School Education noted that while Saudi textbooks still erase Israel from the map and associate Zionism with threats to Muslim religious sites, since the signing of the Abraham Accords, entire chapters and several examples of Jew-hatred have been removed.
Over the past year, there have been numerous signs of open warming. Last fall, Riyadh hosted Samer Haj Yehia, chairman of Israel’s Bank Leumi, as a panelist at the Saudi investor forum, where Yehia described “amazing” opportunities in the desert kingdom. In a June press conference, Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan said that normalization with Israel “would bring significant benefits” to the region. The Saudi ambassador to the United States made a similar pronouncement at the Aspen Ideas Festival later in the month, declaring that her kingdom wants to see “a thriving Israel.” In July, Saudi Arabia signed an agreement with the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization allowing member states, including Israel, to attend the World Heritage Committee’s meeting in September, which would mark the first official public Israeli presence in the kingdom.
In Saudi-affiliated media as well, Israel and normalization are no longer taboo. When rockets from the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip were launched at Israel in July, the London-based Saudi newspaper Al-Sharq al-Awsat avoided pejorative labels for Israeli troops such as “occupation forces.” The Saudi news network Al-Arabiya hosted Israelis to share their thoughts on issues unrelated to the Palestinians as well as Arab commentators who shared favorable views of Gulf normalization with Jerusalem while demanding that the Palestinians give peace a chance. This month, the Jeddah-based daily newspaper Okaz published an article by a Syrian writer urging Palestinians to conclude peace with the Jewish state under the auspices of Mohammed Bin Salman.
People-to-people interactions have also been on the rise. An Israeli national team participated in FIFA’s video game world cup in Saudi Arabia, where Israel’s national anthem was played. Saudi activists and professionals openly attended cultural normalization events and discussed with Israeli citizens potential peace deals between their respective governments in the United Arab Emirates and the United States without facing any backlash from the Saudi security apparatus back home. Saudi authorities also chose Muslim World League head Sheikh Mohammad al Issa, who is known for his friendly gestures toward Jews, to give the prestigious Arafat sermon at the 2022 Hajj.
This openness stands in stark contrast to popular attitudes among Israel’s longtime Arab peace partners, Egypt and Jordan. Just this week, a hotel in Egypt reportedly kicked out an Israeli model after discovering her nationality. Meanwhile, Israeli and Jewish tourists have complained of antisemitic abuse when entering the Hashemite Kingdom.
Saudi-Israeli normalizationhas also hit bumps along the road. The Saudi Foreign Ministry recently condemned Israeli Minister of National Security Itamar Ben Gvir for visiting the Temple Mount. And last March, Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen could not participate in a conference of the United Nations World Tourism Organizations in Riyadh due to Saudi authorities delaying issuing visas.
But the overall trend is running strongly in favor of normalization. The kingdom has been paving the road to prepare its population for such a historical moment so that when peace comes, it will hopefully be a warm one.
*Haisam Hassanein is an adjunct fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, where he analyzes Israel’s relations with Arab and Muslim countries. Follow him on Twitter @HaisamHassanei1. FDD is a nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

A limited defense treaty with the US would be counterproductive
Jacob Nagel/ Israel Hayom/August 18/2023
The US won't defend NATO allies if they launched a preemptive attack, despite Article 5 of the treaty. Likewise, under a treaty with Israel, it won't defend it in the case of a pre-emptive strike on Iran. In fact, a treaty would motivate the US to pressure Israel not to escalate.
A “limited defense treaty” between the US and Israel as part of a normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia and a trilateral agreement between the US, Saudi Arabia, and Israel, contains much more cons than pros, especially when it might come at the expense of Israel’s top priority concern: Preventing a bad Iran nuclear deal (or understandings) that will lead Iran on its sure path to a bomb in a very short timeframe.
Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer is in Washington for meetings with senior White House officials, ahead of very critical decisions regarding the US, Israel, Iran, and Saudi Arabia. According to what was published, and even approved by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, during this round of talks, Dermer’s meetings will focus on moving forward on a “limited defense treaty” between US and Israel.
Reports about a potential treaty have been in the air many times in the past, as recently as 2019, when Israel was in election season. This issue died down only to resurface now while being pushed by minister Dermer, who has not hidden his support for such a treaty for more than a decade.
But, now the talks might become more serious, connected to a possible comprehensive US-Saudi deal, involving Israel and a potential, very important, normalization between Israel and the kingdom.
According to various sources, Riyadh’s main demands are US security guarantees that would be based on a mutual defense treaty like the one the US has with Japan, mostly aimed at countering Iran’s aggression; advanced arms deals; a free-trade zone between the countries, and more. Israel can live with all these demands, assuming its QME (qualitative military edge) will be kept.
Adding the Saudis’ “civilian nuclear” demands, things become a little more complicated. The Saudis are requesting a fully independent nuclear fuel cycle capability that would enable them to commercially tap their natural resources, including mining uranium, turning it into a “yellowcake”, converting it to gas (UF6), and enriching it to the level required to produce nuclear fuel rods for power reactors (electricity generation), for domestic use and for export purposes.
They demand that the capabilities be entirely on Saudi soil. They are willing to accept the monitoring, inspections, and management requirements by the United States and the IAEA, to prevent them from using the enriched military-grade uranium. It will be very dangerous and difficult for Israel to accept these demands, but it looks like Israeli officials and experts, together with their American counterparts, are looking for ways to “square the circle”.
The Palestinian issue has not been forgotten. It is being pushed now mainly by the US, but the Saudis will probably add it in the end to their list and Israel will have to give something to the Palestinians in order to gain the normalization.
Israel must not be confused when it comes to its priorities. Israeli officials must prevent a potential misunderstanding, making sure the US understands that preventing a bad agreement or “understandings”, regarding the Iranian nuclear program has not been relegated to a lower priority even as it seeks a deal with Saudi Arabia or a defense treaty with the US. The potential damage is severe.
There is a clear link between some of the components of a Saudi deal and proper handling of the Iranian nuclear program, and the right way is to try and tie them together and reach a win-win situation.
The Saudi demands, of course, are based on the faulty precedent created by the JCPOA, which gave Iran expansive independent enrichment capabilities and advanced centrifuge R&D on Iranian soil. It is, therefore, possible to understand where the Saudis are coming from, and why their nuclear demands are legitimate, even if one does not agree with them. In their view, the Iranians, who had violated every treaty and agreement they signed and deceived the world, received the right to independent enrichment, so why shouldn’t they get the same? The same argument will be used, for sure, by countries in the region like Egypt, the UAE, Turkey, and others. Understanding the Saudi argument is key to finding a solution that might present a win-win situation.
Adding the Israeli request to sign a “limited defense treaty” with the US, complicates everything.
What are the cons of a US-Israel treaty?
The main problem with a treaty is its existence. By raising a need for a treaty, Israel is conveying the message that it lacks confidence in its power and capability to defend itself by itself, regardless of what will be written inside the treaty details. The title itself creates most of the damage.
A hostile president, in the future, could exploit the treaty against Israel, and there are many ways to do so without any particular problem.
No matter what wording will be used in the treaty, it will break the historical unwritten understanding that Israel does not want American soldiers coming to its rescue and dying on Israeli soil. The treaty will contain sentences indicating there will be certain cases, even if they are only in extreme situations like an existential threat, in which American forces will be called to act on Israel’s behalf in the Middle East. There is no such thing as a “half-treaty,” or a “limited treaty”. In order to obtain the benefits of a treaty (and there are some), it will clearly include sentences like: “An attack on one of the treaty members shall be considered an attack on all the treaty members, with all implications.”
But the problem is much deeper. NATO’s Article 5 is the highest level of security guarantee that the US can give to its allies. If the US, even according to Article 5, will not defend NATO allies if they will launch a preemptive attack, then the US for sure won’t defend anyone else who has a degree of guarantees that falls even below Article 5 levels, like Israel or Saudi Arabia, if they will attack Iran, for example. The US wouldn’t defend Israel if it preemptively bombed Iran’s nuclear facilities, or more accurately, the US wouldn’t be obligated to defend Israel even if it had Article 5-like provisions in a treaty. It is clear that under any defense treaty, Israel will get less than Article 5 guarantees, so presenting such a treaty as giving Israel better freedom of action against Iran, is wrong.
Iran is going to behave aggressively in the region, with or without a treaty, and since Israel is not asking the United States to come to its aid in the event of an Iranian attack, by sending American forces, the treaty will be counterproductive, and potentially inflict severe damage to Israeli deterrence, based on the indirect message, that Israel does not trust its own independent capabilities and needs the United States’ support.
Iran will be under the impression that Israel has decided to shift to its containment, like the US, and that if it will not cross an elusive unimportant “red line”, it will remain immune. Claiming that with a treaty Israel will not lose its freedom of action against Iran and can decide to attack Iran, knowing the US will come to its rescue because of the treaty, is wrong and the analysis shows the opposite. The treaty will unfortunately give the IDF, another reason not to attack Iran, and not to attack the dangerous infrastructure and facilities the Hezbollah built on Lebanon soil, including the production facilities of the PGM’s (precise guided munition).
As a practical matter, the US might defend Israel, although probably not after an Israeli preemptive attack, but that depends on who is the president and what are US priorities at that time. The US will find a way out when it wants; see the Taiwan case, even though it wasn’t a treaty there.
It would be a grave mistake to bind the very important agreement with Saudi Arabia with the signing of a US-Israel treaty. Israel will look very strange when asking the US for a defense treaty, to get things they want regardless of the treaty. Why should the US “pay” by signing a treaty, for Israel to agree to do something Israel wants anyway? On the other hand, the US needs Israel’s support now more than ever before, to pass the entire US-Saudi deal in Congress. Israel can get all the goodies they want, without a treaty, so why give the US the feeling that this is the “price” Israel wants in order to support and help the administration pass the Saudi deal, in Congress?
American support for what Israel really needs exists without a treaty. Signing a treaty, even if it includes those issues inside the wording, can only undermine the US support for these issues, on the grounds that if there is a treaty they are no longer needed, or at least they can be reduced and weakened: No need for a broader and longer new MOU; no need for a better QME; no need for a wider and sophisticated deployment of US weapons systems in Israel; no need for wider and much more sensitive R&D and technology cooperation, and more.
There is also a danger of curtailing Israeli freedom of action in general, especially vis-à-vis Iran, Russia, and China, regardless of what is written in the treaty. A treaty would motivate the US to prevent escalation, in order to prevent a confrontation that would require the US to intervene, so they will put a lot of pressure on Israel not to escalate. It can be written in the treaty wording that Israel will not have to consult or obtain approvals from the US, but according to treaty drafts from the past, it is explicitly written that Israel will have to consult.
There are of course also treaty pros, most of them are based on interpretation that turns some disadvantages into an advantage: The treaty will send a clear message that the US is behind Israel and that harming or attacking Israel will be considered an act of violence against the US, so it might Increase Israel’s deterrence and freedom of action against Iran, Russia, and China.
Signing a treaty can upgrade US-Israel relations for many years to come while bringing the Congress on board, as a partner to the deal in advance, by ratifying it, maybe preventing the need to reapprove the deal arrangements every year.
The treaty motivates the US to prevent escalation, so it will probably give Israel almost anything it needs to prevent a confrontation, that would require them to intervene.
It is obvious that a treaty’s cons are much larger than its pros, so it would be best not to push for it, at this stage, especially not as a part of the wider Saudi deal.
The correct, and practically the only, way to advance a Saudi deal that would help bring normalization with Israel, overcome Riyadh’s request for an independent nuclear fuel cycle, take the bad deal (or understandings) with Iran off the table, and eliminate the need for a defense treaty, is to insist on triggering the snapback mechanism to the fullest extent against Iran, by reinstating all UN Security Council sanctions that were lifted when the JCPOA agreement was signed in 2015, including a total ban on uranium enrichment on Iranian soil. Such an American demand, even if it will not mature because of an Iranian objection, will pull the rug under the Saudis’ enrichment demands, and make it possible to move forward with a Saudi-American-Israeli deal without the nuclear threat from Saudi Arabia and without a need for a dangerous US-Israel defense treaty, and open the door to a joint Israeli-American action against the Iranian nuclear program.
*Brigadier General (res.) Jacob Nagel is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) and a visiting professor at the Technion. He previously served as Prime Minister Netanyahu’s national security advisor and the head of the Israel National Security Council (acting). FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focused on national security and foreign policy.

Will China, Russia, and North Korea Launch Their Nukes?
Gordon G. Chang/Gatestone Institute/August 18, 2023
Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, and Kim Jong Un see the world in the same terms, and they all realize that none of them will accomplish their goals unless they get the United States out of the way.
Perhaps of greatest concern is that all three regimes [China, Russia and North Korea] share a nuclear weapons doctrine of "escalate to de-escalate" or "escalate to win": threatening the use of nuclear weapons to keep others from defending their intended victims. Xi and Putin appear capable of actually using their most destructive weapons.
Kim has made threats to use nuclear weapons pre-emptively. His regime last year even enacted a law authorizing such use.
When aggressors threaten the use of nuclear weapons, anything can happen. America will have to be prepared that China, along with its friends, are willing to do anything to get what they want.
The regimes of China, Russia and North Korea share a nuclear weapons doctrine of "escalate to de-escalate" or "escalate to win": threatening the use of nuclear weapons to keep others from defending their intended victims. Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin appear capable of actually using their most destructive weapons. Kim Jong Un has made threats to use nuclear weapons pre-emptively. His regime last year even enacted a law authorizing such use. (Image source: iStock)
This week, the U.S. Navy's Carrier Strike Group 5, centered around the USS Ronald Reagan, has been steaming off the east coast of Taiwan.
Be glad it is there. China has been throwing a diplomatic tantrum — fiercer than usual — because the Biden administration allowed William Lai Ching-te, Taiwan's vice president, to make "transit" stops in New York and San Francisco on his way to and from Paraguay.
Beijing in response promised "resolute and forceful measures." There have been numerous Chinese air and naval provocations near the embattled island republic in the last few days. As soon as Lai arrived in New York, the Chinese foreign ministry called Taiwan "the core of the core interests of China."
So, will China go to war soon? And if war comes, will it embroil the world's great powers?
China's regime has already declared a "people's war" against America, and has been waging such a struggle with its "unrestricted warfare" tactics.
But what about a "hot war"? War between China and the U.S. over Taiwan, as Henry Kissinger said in early June to Bloomberg, is "probable." China can still be deterred — the presence of the USS Ronald Reagan is almost certainly giving the Chinese military second thoughts — but one thing looks increasingly likely: If there is a war, Russia and North Korea will fight alongside China. The world is dividing into camps.
China is telling the world that Lai is a one-man provocation. For one thing, he is currently leading in Taiwan's January 13, 2024 presidential election, and Beijing is unhappy, to say the least. The Chinese Communist regime considers Lai, running on the Democratic Progressive Party line, the "separatist" candidate. Beijing has already labeled the frontrunner a "troublemaker through and through."
One American China-watcher, the astute Guermantes Lailari, thinks Chinese ruler Xi Jinping will move on Taiwan this month, perhaps taking one of its offshore islands. Others believe that he will wait for the January election before deciding what to do. These analysts see China's military exercises as merely an intimidation tactic, meant to make the Taiwanese "fear war."
In any event, Xi has internal reasons to go to war: His domestic policies are rapidly failing and his only way out is to rally the Chinese people with a crisis. He is in fact not only talking about war but also fast making preparations to wage one.
One of those many preparations is recruiting combatants. As Gregory Copley, president of the International Strategic Studies Association, told Gatestone, "The People's Republic of China will attempt to bring in those states that Beijing believes are its allies."
Xi is particularly counting on Russia and North Korea. The Russian and Chinese navies at the turn of the month sent 11 ships toward the Aleutians in an extremely provocative exercise. The effort was almost certainly intended to show that Moscow would fight with China against America over Taiwan. During the joint drill, the Chinese and Russians demonstrated progress in achieving interoperability by, among other accomplishments, developing joint command-and-control.
Furthermore, North Korea has rhetorically lined up on Beijing's side. On August 4, the Chinese affairs department of North Korea's foreign ministry called an American aid package for Taiwan a "dangerous political and military provocation." "It is," said a statement, "the sinister intention of the U.S. to turn Taiwan into an unsinkable advanced base against China and the first-line trench for carrying out its strategy for deterring China." Apparently, Beijing had leaned on its client state to make a pronouncement that had nothing to do with North Korea.
Copley, also editor-in-chief of Defense & Foreign Affairs Strategic Policy, suggested that China is not the leader it appears to be. "Moscow would probably not break with Beijing if it went to war to capture Taiwan, but it would be most reluctant to actually provide military aid, or military force, to Beijing," he says. That would be payback, he points out, for China not giving Moscow all it needs to fight in Ukraine.
Similarly, Copley stated that "Kim Jong Un cannot easily move against the PRC, but he will be careful about supporting Xi against Taiwan." "Yes," Copley said, "there would be 'demonstrations' of North Korean missile and nuclear capabilities, but Kim would be reluctant to do anything that might involve massive retaliation."
Copley is correct that Russia and North Korea would probably prefer to stay out of a conflict over Taiwan, but there are other factors at work.
First, a Chinese attack on Taiwan would allow Moscow and Pyongyang to grab territories they have long coveted. The Russians have desired all of Japan's northern islands, the Kurils, and North Korea wants to absorb South Korea.
Second, Russia and North Korea are particularly dependent on China, and China would lean on both of them with all it had.
Third, Moscow and Beijing are already close partners in combat in North Africa, where they are fueling insurgencies that look like wars.
Fourth, Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, and Kim Jong Un see the world in the same terms, and they all realize that none of them will accomplish their goals unless they get the United States out of the way.
Perhaps of greatest concern is that all three regimes share a nuclear weapons doctrine of "escalate to de-escalate" or "escalate to win": threatening the use of nuclear weapons to keep others from defending their intended victims. Xi and Putin appear capable of actually using their most destructive weapons. Kim in this regard is an unknown, but both his father and grandfather believed in taking everyone down with them. "If we lose, I will destroy the world," said Kim Jong Il, father of the current North Korean leader.
Kim Jong Un has apparently been inspired by Xi's and Putin's nuclear warnings. Beginning last year and continuing into this March, Kim has made threats to use nuclear weapons pre-emptively. His regime last year even enacted a law authorizing such use.
When aggressors threaten the use of nuclear weapons, anything can happen. America will have to be prepared that China, along with its friends, are willing to do anything to get what they want.
*Gordon G. Chang is the author of The Coming Collapse of China, a Gatestone Institute distinguished senior fellow, and a member of its Advisory Board.
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Stalling financial reform is endangering Lebanon's recovery prospects, says Najib Mikati
Nada Maucourant Atallah/The National/August 18/2023
Lebanon's caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati has warned that Parliament's inability to pass financial laws necessary the country's recovery is jeopardising future prospects.
This came after a session in Lebanon's Parliament to discuss capital controls was postponed because a quorum could not be achieved.
Deadlock between political parties over the election of a president has helped paralyse the political process. “It has been four years since the crisis started, and no financial reform project has been approved so far”, Mr Mikati said on Thursday.
New legislation on capital controls – which limit the flow of foreign capital in and out of the country – is a prerequisite of an International Monetary Fund deal to unlock billions of dollars in loans. This money is required to help pull the country out of its economic meltdown, which began in 2019. The crisis has led to a currency devaluation of over 98 per cent with losses in the financial sector of over $70 billion, leaving the banking system paralysed and depositors unable to access their savings.
An estimated 80 per cent of Lebanese now live in poverty, with 36 per cent below the extreme poverty line, the EU said in March.
Other required reforms include a restructuring the banking sector, which could revitalise struggling banks while eliminating insolvent ones, part of an effort to restore confidence in the sector. The reforms are also part of the road map outlined by the new acting Banque du Liban governor Wassim Mansouri, as a condition for the central bank to lend to the state.
Despite the urgency of the situation, the Lebanese ruling class has been unable to implement required reforms. “All these need solutions immediately – if they are not resolved and Parliament does not convene and make it all some kind of one package to be decided on, there won't be economic stability in the country”, Mr Mikati said.
He said that a dedicated parliamentary session should be convened, where a package of long-awaited laws to overhaul the financial sector and restructure banks should be passed.
However, some political parties, which include the two main Christian parties, are against holding any parliamentary sessions for voting on these laws until the country has a president in place. They argue that, according to the Lebanese constitution, Parliament's role should transition into that of an electoral body, convening solely to elect a new head of state.
Lebanon has been without a president since October 2022 and despite convening 12 times, lawmakers have been unable to reach a consensus on a candidate. “I fear if we delay more in passing the legislation, the consequences will be very detrimental on the economy of the country”, Mr Mikati said. Reforms in Lebanon, which include revamping the electricity sector and streamlining an oversized public sector – often exploited for patronage – have been stalled for years. Despite repeated international calls, the divided political factions have failed to initiate change. As the status quo endures, there has been in no accountability for a crisis that has pushed over 80 per cent of the population into poverty.

How Constantinople Saved the West
Raymond Ibrahim/August 18/2023
This week in history, on August 15, 718, Constantinople defeated the forces of Islam—and in so doing, saved Western civilization. The story is worth recounting:
After several failed sieges, in the year 715, the Umayyad caliphate had concluded that enough was enough: it would vomit forth all it had in one final, all-out effort to conquer the ancient Christian capital. Caliph Suleiman summoned his younger brother, Maslama, and commanded him to lead Islam’s combined forces to Constantinople and “stay there until you conquer it or I recall you.” The young emir embraced the honor: soon “I [will] enter this city knowing that it is the capital of Christianity and its glory; my only purpose in entering it is to uphold Islam and humiliate unbelief.”
At the head of 120,000 jihadists, Maslama crossed into Christian territory and, with “both sword and fire, he put an end to Asia Minor,” wrote a near contemporary chronicler. On August 15, 717, he began bombarding the city, which was defended by Leo III, formerly a general. Just weeks earlier, and because he was deemed the ablest man, Leo had been consecrated in the Hagia Sophia Cathedral as new emperor.
Unable to breach the cyclopean walls of Constantinople, Maslama waited for 1,800 vessels containing an additional 80,000 fighting men to approach through the Bosporus and completely blockade—and thus starve—the city.
Suddenly Leo ordered the ponderous chain that normally guarded the harbor cast aside. Then, “while they [Muslim fleets] hesitated whether they should seize the opportunity . . . the ministers of destruction were at hand.” Leo had sent forth the “fire-bearing ships” against the Islamic fleet, which was quickly set “on fire,” writes Theophanes the chronicler: “some of them were cast up burning by the sea walls, others sank to the bottom with their crews, and others were swept down flaming.”
Matters worsened when Maslama received word that the caliph, his brother Suleiman, had died of “indigestion” (by reportedly devouring two baskets of eggs and figs, followed by marrow and sugar for dessert). The new caliph, Omar II, was initially inattentive to the Muslim army’s needs. Maslama stayed and wintered in.
Unfortunately for him, “one of the cruelest winters that anyone could remember” arrived, and, “for one hundred days, snow covered the earth.” All Maslama could do was assure his emaciated, half-frozen men that “Soon—soon supplies will be here!” But they did not come. Worse, warlike nomadic tribesmen known as Bulgars—whence the nation of Bulgaria—accustomed to the terrain and climate began to harry any Muslim detachment that left the starving camp in search of food.
By spring, Muslim reinforcements and provisions finally arrived by land and sea. But the damage was done; frost and famine had taken their toll on the Muslims encamped outside the walls of Constantinople. “Since the Arabs were extremely hungry,” writes Theophanes, “they ate all their dead animals: horses, asses, and camels. Some even say they put dead men and their own dung in pans, kneaded this, and ate it. A plague-like disease descended on them, and destroyed a countless throng.”
Even so, knowing that such a massive force—which had taken years to assemble and had severely taxed the caliphate’s resources—was already at the walls of Islam’s archrival was too much of a temptation for Omar to order a withdrawal. The new caliph also knew that nothing could bolster his credentials as the conquest of that one infidel kingdom that remained a thorn in Islam’s side. Thus, while the Muslim land force recuperated, a new navy, composed of eight hundred ships, was outfitted in the ports of Alexandria and Libya. The fleet arrived under the cover of night and managed to blockade the Bosporus. Having learned the lesson of Greek Fire, the prudent ships kept their distance.
Just as the beginning of the end seemed to have arrived for Constantinople, sudden delivery—and from the least expected source—came: the crews manning the caliphate’s new ships were not Arab Muslims but Egyptian Christians (Copts). Because the caliphate’s fighting men had been spread thin, with many dying during the current siege, the caliph had no choice but to rely on forced infidel conscripts. Much to Omar’s chagrin, the Egyptian sailors “of these two fleets took counsel among themselves, and, after seizing at night the skiffs of the transports, sought refuge in the City and acclaimed the emperor; as they did so, the sea,” writes Theophanes, “appeared to be covered with timber.”
Not only did the Muslim war galleys lose a significant amount of manpower, but the Copts provided Leo with useful information concerning Muslim formations and plans. With this new intelligence, Leo lifted the boom and unleashed the fire ships. Considering the loss of manpower and general chaos that ensued after the Egyptians jumped ship, the confrontation—or rather conflagration, for the waves were again aflame—was more a rout than a battle.
Seeking to seal his victory, Leo had the retreating Muslim fleets pursued by sea. The neighboring Bulgar tribes were persuaded by Leo’s “gifts and promises” to attack and massacre as many as 22,000 of the battle-weary and starved Muslims.
By now, Caliph Omar realized all was lost. Maslama, who could only have welcomed the summons, was recalled. On August 15, 718—exactly one year since it began—the siege of Constantinople was lifted. But the Muslims’ troubles were far from over: a terrible storm swallowed up many ships in the Sea of Marmara; and the ashes from a volcanic eruption on the island of Santorini set others aflame.
Of the 2,560 ships retreating back to Damascus and Alexandria, only ten reportedly survived—and of these, half were captured by the Romans, leaving only five to reach and tell the tale to the caliph. In all, of the 200,000 Muslims who set out to conquer the Christian capital (including the additional spring reinforcements), only some 30,000 eventually made it back by land. Constantinople’s unexpected salvation—particularly in the context of winter storms, nemesis-like sea-storms, and volcanoes that pursued and swallowed up the fleeing infidels—led to the popular belief that divine providence had intervened on behalf of Christendom, saving it from “the insatiable and utterly perverse Arabs,” in the words of a contemporary.
By way of collective punishment, a vindictive Omar, failing to subdue the infidel dogs across the way, was quick to project his wrath on the infidels under his authority. In the words of the chronicler Bar Hebraeus: “And because of the disgrace which came upon the Arabs through their withdrawal from Constantinople, great hatred against the Christians sprang in the heart of Omar and he afflicted them severely.” Theophanes gives specifics: “Omar … set about forcing the Christians to become converted; those that converted he exempted from tax [jizya], while those that refused to do so he killed and so produced many martyrs.
That Constantinople was able to repulse the hitherto unstoppable forces of Islam is one of Western history’s most decisive moments. The last time a large expanse of land was left open to the scimitar of Islam (following Christian defeat at Yarmuk, 636), thousands of square miles were permanently conquered. Had Constantinople—the bulwark of Europe’s eastern flank—fallen, large parts or even the whole of Europe could have become the northwestern appendage of the caliphate as early as the eighth century.
As historian John Julius Norwich puts it, “Had the Saracens captured Constantinople in the seventh century rather than the fifteenth, all Europe—and America—might be Muslim today.” The earliest chroniclers knew this and referred to August 15, the day the siege was lifted, as an “ecumenical date”—that is, a day for all of Christendom to rejoice. Historical quotes in the above narrative were taken from and are sourced in the author’s book, Sword and Scimitar: Fourteen Centuries of War between Islam and the West.

Brexit: Lottery as Politics
Amir Taheri/Asharq Al-Awsat/August 18/2023
“Brexit has failed!” This is what Nigel Farage, the sulfurous politician who was the cheerleader for Britain leaving the European Union said in a television interview last week. A day later it was the turn of former Prime Minister Boris Johnson, the man who railroaded Brexit through the parliament, to echo Farage. In his newspaper column he said the UK “is still stuck in the European Union orbit.” For a brief moment Prime Minister Rishi Sunak seemed to amplify that echo with a tweet that implied the UK was still part of the EU. (Needless to say the tweet was hastily corrected.)
Well, has Brexit failed?
It depends on what we mean by Brexit, a catch-all shibboleth that like other shibboleths could be interpreted any which way. If we go by its simplest meaning, that is to say ceasing to be a member of the European Union, Brexit has succeeded. The UK is no longer a member of a club to which it had belonged for more than four decades and played a leading role in shaping and reshaping it. However, if we go by the numerous promises, not say fantasies, that Brexit was loaded with it has been, to put it mildly, not a great success. The first promise was to “take control of our borders”, something which already existed. No one could enter the UK without having his passport checked. Under the Lisbon Treaty European Union citizens were allowed to enter the UK without a visa and stay for three months at the end of which they could remain only if they had a job or were bona fide students. Citizens of some EU members such as Romania and Bulgaria, however, were exempted and still required to apply for residency after the three months deadline. The Labor government under Tony Blair chose to ignore all those caveats, helping the UK benefit from a large source of young and inexpensive work force that contributed to high growth rate in a service-based economy. The second big promise offered by Farage and Johnson, among other Brexiteers, was “bringing immigration under control.” Everyone knew that the code-word “immigration” wasn’t really targeted at Europeans but at Africans and Asians. But to have openly identified the target would have courted opprobrium and the charge of racism.
At any rate, that promise hasn’t been fulfilled.
The latest statistics show that the number of immigrants to the UK has increased by between 15 and 20 percentage points according to different estimates. The difference is that the number of white EU arrivals has fallen while the number of “visible minorities” has grown, to the chagrin of those who felt threatened by “dark-skinned” cashiers at supermarkets in Sunderland. Leaving aside control of borders and curbing immigration, Brexit became a vehicle for all sorts of fantasies. The UK was to regain its imperial role as leader of the Commonwealth, albeit in the service of world peace and prosperity. Creative trade agreements were to be signed with the United States, China, Japan and any other nation that recognized the advantages of having the UK as partner.
Needless to say, that hasn’t happened.
The only major trade agreement the UK has signed has been with the same old, disliked, EU and largely on Brussels term. To rub it all in the Northern Ireland Protocol of Withdrawal clearly asserts that “certain aspects of EU law continue to apply in respect to Northern Ireland and the UK.”Even under the original agreement the UK adopted a large number of EU laws and regulations as its own domestic laws, often with “mostly technical adjustments.” Some adopted EU laws have a sunset clause, meaning they would be germinated at a fixed date, mostly between the end of 2023 and 2027 unless the UK parliament decides to prolong their applicability. Another promise was to end the authority of the European Court of Human Rights, a body initially promoted by the UK. That hasn’t happened because the UK, remaining a member of the Council of Europe, is still bound by the court’s rulings on a number of issues. Brexit has also ended UK’s membership of the Erasmus scheme under which EU members exchanged university students. That has deprived UK universities of billions of dollars in foreign student fees, not to mention the benefits of cultural contact at academic level. At the same time UK students are kept out of European universities and the benefits that cross-cultural contact offers. In 2019 over 50,000 UK students participated in Erasmus exchanges.
To correct that, a number of UK and EU universities have decided to revive the scheme with bilateral accords. For example, the Universities of Birmingham, in UK, and Grenoble in France, operating their own exchange scheme. Despite Brexit, the UK has not withdrawn from the European Space Agency, thus maintaining access to raft of cutting-edge technology. Brexit has also kept the UK out of joint banking ventures with EU in many domains. But a recent joint venture with The European Bank of Reconstruction and Development to help Moldova shows that case-by-case cooperation isn’t ruled out.
Needless to say that Brexit hasn’t delivered the economic advantages that its advocates promised. The UK inflation rate is higher than any EU country and growth rate is lower. Part of that, of course, could be blamed on the pandemic and the global recession that started almost at the same time as the US left the EU. One, perhaps unintended consequence of Brexit is the de-emphasizing of UK’s European identity. Latest statistics show that the number of UK children and youths wishing to learn European languages has fallen by 25 percent with the biggest drops concerning French and German.
Instead, the number of young Britons learning Mandarin has almost tripled. The numbers learning Punjabi, Arabic and Turkish have also increased. This is no surprise and perhaps would have happened even without Brexit. In UK today more than 25 percent of children have foreign mothers. (In London it is 52 percent). Of every 10 UK children one is a Muslim-born citizen. In a decade or two “little Englanders” may even be a minority as anew globalized society takes shape. Talleyrand would have described Brexit as “an unnecessary move” which, in his opinion, is worse than making a mistake. Brexit was an exercise in applying the principle of lottery to politics; you draw a lot, not knowing what fate has allotted you.

Niger Coup Threatens U.S. Strategy on Counterterrorism and Russia
Ben Fishman, Anna Borshchevskaya, Aaron Y. Zelin/The Washington Institute/Aug 18 2023
An entrenched military junta could jeopardize America’s primary CT partner in West Africa, create ripple effects for security beyond the Sahel, and give Russia’s Wagner Group a new opening on the continent.
On July 26, Nigerien president Mohamed Bazoum was detained by members of his special guard and put under house arrest, where he remains under harsh conditions. Gen. Abdourahmane Tchiani has since declared himself head of the so-called “National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland” and appointed a twenty-one-person cabinet on August 8. The coup comes in the wake of military takeovers in Guinea, Burkina Faso, Mali, Chad, and Sudan over the past three years, demonstrating regional anti-democratic trends amid trans-regional instability.
Diplomatic efforts to quell the crisis have failed to date. U.S. secretary of state Antony Blinken has made repeated calls to Bazoum, reflecting a commitment to securing his release and returning to “constitutional order.” Bazoum was a close American security partner prior to his arrest and was accorded a prominent role during the U.S.-Africa Leaders Summit in Washington last December. Blinken has also reached out to former president Mahamadou Issoufou, who has better personal ties to the junta; he was once an ally of Bazoum but had recently broken with his successor’s anti-corruption initiatives. This call followed Acting Deputy Secretary Victoria Nuland’s unsuccessful August 8 visit to Niamey, where she was prohibited from meeting with Bazoum or Tchiani. Instead, she spoke with Gen. Moussa Salaou Barmou, a longtime U.S. security partner who serves as the military’s new chief of staff but would not offer so much as an assurance of Barzoum’s safety, let alone his release or restoration.
With the junta rejecting all U.S. and regional diplomatic initiatives, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has threatened military intervention. The alliance’s leaders met on August 10 and agreed to deploy a standby force, though how quickly it can be assembled remains unclear.
In neighboring Algeria, President Abdelmadjid Tebboune strongly condemned the junta but said any military intervention in Niger would represent “a direct threat” to his country, declaring, “There will be no solution without us. We are the first people affected.” In Libya—another neighbor keenly attuned to Niger’s stability given persistent smuggling—the Government of National Unity condemned the junta, while the eastern-based warlord Khalifa Haftar condemned the threats by ECOWAS. Elsewhere, Egypt has remained largely silent about the crisis, while Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates quickly denounced the coup and called for Bazoum’s restoration (in part because he is Niger’s first Arab president). The UAE also sent some military vehicles to neighboring Chad, providing additional border security and signaling their growing bilateral relationship.
CT Partner of Choice
Another key facet of the coup is its potential effect on jihadist activity in Niger, which has been mostly a sideshow to the main insurgencies next door in Mali, Nigeria, and Burkina Faso. The first signs of jihadist reach in Niger emerged when al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) kidnapped two Canadian diplomats in December 2008. The group would continue this tactic in subsequent years, including a failed kidnapping attempt against U.S. embassy personnel in November 2009.
Renamed Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) in 2017, the group has conducted disparate attacks against the Nigerien army ever since, with three such incidents occurring this year. Although JNIM members have used Niger mainly as a logistics and facilitation hub, the country became more of an attack zone after 2015, when the Islamic State (IS) began operating in West Africa and the Sahel. Most prominently, an October 2017 IS ambush killed four U.S. Special Forces soldiers and four Nigerien personnel near the border with Mali, sparking an extensive review of U.S. procedures and deployments as well as several hundred million dollars in extra funding for the Nigerien military.
In the southeast part of Niger, jihadists representing the Islamic State’s so-called “West Africa Province” (ISWAP) have conducted at least fifty attacks from across the border in Nigeria. In the southwest, jihadist attacks have mainly stemmed from insurgencies in Mali and Burkina Faso led by the organization’s “Sahel Province,” which has claimed up to ten attacks in Niger this year—more than in 2022 (eleven attacks) but far fewer than in 2021 (forty-three attacks that killed 225 people).
Yet Niger’s new situation could transform it from a limited jihadist theater into something resembling the three insurgencies next door. For example, JNIM’s most recent attack there occurred on August 9. This risk would be magnified if U.S. forces leave the arena and units from Russia’s Wagner Group replace them (see below), especially given the company’s penchant for exacerbating insurgencies and perpetrating civilian massacres. Niger could also become another arena of violent competition between IS and JNIM, leading to even more civilian hardship and casualties.
To stem these regional trends, the United States has relied on Niger for key basing and counterterrorism cooperation from West Africa to Libya. The country hosts over 1,000 American troops involved in training, regional security operations, and protection for the two air bases where U.S. personnel are located. Approximately 1,500 troops from France are also deployed in Niger as part of their regional realignment after leaving Mali.
Base 201 in remote northern Niger is particularly important. It is the only dedicated facility in this part of the continent to fly drones that provide critical intelligence, reconnaissance, surveillance, and strike capabilities, including high-profile operations against IS in Libya in September 2019 and against AQIM/JNIM two months later. Without those assets, the United States would be largely blind to a range of jihadist threats from IS, JNIM, and other groups throughout the region, including potential IS plots against Americans and the U.S. homeland. The worst-case scenario would be if the two so-called IS “provinces” on Niger’s southwest and southeast frontiers somehow link up and create new territorial control for the group, leaving the United States with limited response options if it loses basing access.
An Opening for Wagner
Wagner forces are already entrenched in Mali and Burkina Faso to Niger’s west and the Central African Republic and Sudan to the east. The group also uses Libya as a transit hub for its Africa operations, providing protective services to local governments in exchange for the right to extract resources from otherwise poor countries. Access to Niger would fit this pattern given its rich uranium deposits, which comprise 5 percent of the world’s supply and make it a main provider to Europe.
Moving into Niger would also entrench Wagner’s presence in Africa at a time when group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin is looking for new opportunities after his failed uprising against Moscow. Indeed, he praised the Niger coup as the people’s uprising against their “colonizers” and expressed “joy” at Nuland’s unsuccessful diplomatic effort.
For its part, the Kremlin has publicly criticized both the coup and the prospect of military intervention. Yet Russia would clearly gain from a decrease in U.S. influence in Niger. According to Washington, there is no evidence that Moscow or Wagner directly supported the coup, but their propaganda arms likely spread disinformation targeting Bazoum. After the junta took power, one prominent Russian propagandist stated, “Based on the results of what we [Russia] started in Ukraine, people around the whole world are indeed looking at us as the leaders of an anti-colonial revolution, as those who took a risk and are succeeding.”
So far, reports on a potential Wagner deployment to Niger are thin. Representatives of the junta may have met with the group in Mali to request support against a potential ECOWAS intervention, while other unconfirmed reports suggest that Wagner representatives have already been to Niamey. Yet Prigozhin’s interests in Niger do not necessarily align with those of Vladimir Putin, who demonstrated his desire to maintain positive relations on the continent when he hosted the Russia-Africa Summit in St. Petersburg last month.
Policy Recommendations
The United States has a clear interest in the coup’s defeat, ideally through a diplomatic solution. It also has an interest in preventing the Kremlin from leveraging another conflict to its advantage. Washington has already paused its non-humanitarian aid, which will have the side effect of inhibiting counterterrorism cooperation and the activities of unique assets stationed in Niger. If the Biden administration officially declares Bazoum’s overthrow a coup, the temporary pause in assistance will become permanent, dealing a massive blow to America’s CT posture in various parts of Africa.
In this sense, the coup has once again highlighted the need for reviewing the U.S. approach to the Sahel. For example, the Trans-Sahara Counterterrorism Partnership—a fund established in 2005 to support CT efforts throughout the area, including the Sahel—still receives just $35 million per year, a relatively small sum given the scope of the mission. And instead of the originally envisioned boost to regional cooperation, there are now fewer opportunities to cooperate with local governments than when the fund was created.
The threat of Wagner’s expansion looms larger today as well. The United States should therefore consider further pressure against the group in Libya, since that arena enables its wider African operations. To date, Washington has urged Haftar to sever ties with Wagner and promoted national elections in the hope that a new government would ask the group to leave the country. Neither approach has worked, however, so officials should consider a more aggressive approach, working with U.S. partners to deny Wagner access to the airports it currently operates.
In Niger, the best approach for now may be to push intensively for a diplomatic resolution while using the threat of complete isolation to encourage some cooperation from the junta. An unconventional partner like Algeria may be helpful given its opposition to the coup and military intervention, not to mention its interests in preventing a jihadist surge.
*Ben Fishman is a senior fellow at The Washington Institute and former director for North Africa on the National Security Council. Anna Borshchevskaya is a senior fellow in the Institute’s Diane and Guilford Glazer Foundation Program on Great Power Competition and the Middle East. Aaron Zelin is the Institute’s Richard Borow Fellow and founder of Jihadology.net.