Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on August 13-14/2023
Text of Patriarch Al-Rahi's sermon delivered today, August 13, 2023 In the town of al-Qaaqour: It is not possible to live on one land with more than one state, army and authority
NNA/LCCC/ Al-Matn/13 August/2023
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/121156/121156/
The Maronite Patriarch, Cardinal Mar Beshara Boutros Al-Rahi, consecrated the altars of the Umm Al-Marahim Church and the chapel of Saint Charbel in the town of Al-Qaaqour, in a festive mass assisted by Bishops Samir Mazloum and Antoine Abi Najm, and a group of priests, in an official, political and popular presence. After reciting the Holy Gospel, the shepherd delivered a sermon entitled "The Mighty One has done great things for me," and said
And the shepherd added: "On this joyful day that we live with you, dear people of al-Qaqour, and we are happy to consecrate the altars of the Umm al-Marahim Church and the Chapel of St. Charbel, and to inaugurate this pastoral complex. We cannot hide the heartache with the great pain that permeates Lebanon. We ache and grieve with the dear people of Ain Ebel. For the kidnapping, torture and killing of a loved one who struggled with them during the years of steadfastness and struggle, the late Elias Al-Hasrouni, whose tragedy took place on August 2 and its truth was revealed later. The weapons truck that overturned on the elbow of the town belonging to "Hezbollah". We are also saddened by the fall of a victim from its ranks. Life is from God and a precious gift to mankind."
He said: "We express our participation in the pain of the families of the victims, and we assure the dear sons of Ain Ebel and Kahalah of our closeness to them and prayers, asking God to console their hearts with the grace of patience and relying on His care. We hand over the investigation matter to the army, the security services and the judiciary, for our permanent faith in the state and its institutions. We will not go out." On the logic of the state, and we will not slip into living without it, and resorting to others.At the same time, we call on all components of the country and parties to organize under the banner of the state, especially with regard to the use of weapons.It is not possible to live on one land that has more than one state, more than one legitimate army, and more. From authority, and more than sovereignty. With this utterance, the Taif Agreement must be implemented in its entirety in its letter and spirit, and the decisions of international legitimacy regarding the sovereignty of the State of Lebanon over all of its territory.
He added, "In this circumstance, where we are facing a new regional order that raises fears and anxiety, we must avoid adventures, but rather go to elect a president of the republic as soon as possible, as there is no justification for not being elected since last September. He is the guarantor of reviving constitutional institutions and public administrations, and commitment to consolidating Stability, and preserving the formula of coexistence with the richness of cultural and religious diversity, integration, cooperation and mutual respect.
He concluded: "We entrust these wishes to the intercession of our mother, the Virgin Mary, the Mother of Merciful Ones, and Saint Charbel, and I would like to thank everyone for their high attendance and for their reception, especially the people of the neighborhood and the people of the town of Zaroun from our Druze brothers and the people of the villages that we passed through on the banners, flags and pictures that greeted us. And we hope on this blessed day to magnify God with our good deeds, and give thanks to Him for all His blessings, the Father and the Son and the Holy Spirit, now and forever, Amen.

Patriarch Al-Rahi from the town of Al-Qaaqour: It is not possible to live on one land with more than one state, army and authority
NNA/LCCC/ Al-Matn/13 August/2023
The Maronite Patriarch, Cardinal Mar Beshara Boutros Al-Rahi, consecrated the altars of the Umm Al-Marahim Church and the chapel of Saint Charbel in the town of Al-Qaaqour, in a festive mass assisted by Bishops Samir Mazloum and Antoine Abi Najm, and a group of priests, in an official, political and popular presence.
After reciting the Holy Gospel, the shepherd delivered a sermon entitled "The Mighty One has done great things for me," and said
And the shepherd added: "On this joyful day that we live with you, dear people of al-Qaqour, and we are happy to consecrate the altars of the Umm al-Marahim Church and the Chapel of St. Charbel, and to inaugurate this pastoral complex. We cannot hide the heartache with the great pain that permeates Lebanon. We ache and grieve with the dear people of Ain Ebel. For the kidnapping, torture and killing of a loved one who struggled with them during the years of steadfastness and struggle, the late Elias Al-Hasrouni, whose tragedy took place on August 2 and its truth was revealed later. The weapons truck that overturned on the elbow of the town belonging to "Hezbollah". We are also saddened by the fall of a victim from its ranks. Life is from God and a precious gift to mankind."
He said: "We express our participation in the pain of the families of the victims, and we assure the dear sons of Ain Ebel and Kahalah of our closeness to them and prayers, asking God to console their hearts with the grace of patience and relying on His care. We hand over the investigation matter to the army, the security services and the judiciary, for our permanent faith in the state and its institutions. We will not go out." On the logic of the state, and we will not slip into living without it, and resorting to others.At the same time, we call on all components of the country and parties to organize under the banner of the state, especially with regard to the use of weapons.It is not possible to live on one land that has more than one state, more than one legitimate army, and more. From authority, and more than sovereignty. With this utterance, the Taif Agreement must be implemented in its entirety in its letter and spirit, and the decisions of international legitimacy regarding the sovereignty of the State of Lebanon over all of its territory.
He added, "In this circumstance, where we are facing a new regional order that raises fears and anxiety, we must avoid adventures, but rather go to elect a president of the republic as soon as possible, as there is no justification for not being elected since last September. He is the guarantor of reviving constitutional institutions and public administrations, and commitment to consolidating Stability, and preserving the formula of coexistence with the richness of cultural and religious diversity, integration, cooperation and mutual respect.
He concluded: "We entrust these wishes to the intercession of our mother, the Virgin Mary, the Mother of Merciful Ones, and Saint Charbel, and I would like to thank everyone for their high attendance and for their reception, especially the people of the neighborhood and the people of the town of Zaroun from our Druze brothers and the people of the villages that we passed through on the banners, flags and pictures that greeted us. And we hope on this blessed day to magnify God with our good deeds, and give thanks to Him for all His blessings, the Father and the Son and the Holy Spirit, now and forever, Amen.

Lebanon Christian cleric urges state control of weapons after clash
BEIRUT (Reuters)/August 13, 2023
Lebanon's top Christian cleric called for state control over weapons on Sunday, days after a deadly clash between Christian villagers and the heavily armed group Hezbollah over an overturned truck of ammunition. A Hezbollah member and a Christian resident were killed in Wednesday's exchange of fire in the village of Kahaleh, near Beirut, which began when a Hezbollah truck carrying ammunition turned over while driving through the area. It was the deadliest confrontation between the Iran-backed Hezbollah and Lebanese who oppose it since clashes in Beirut two years ago, further rocking the stability of a country already suffering deep political and economic crises. In his sermon on Sunday, cleric Patriarch Bechara Boutros al-Rai called for "all parties" and other elements of the country "to unite under the banner of the state, especially regarding the use of weapons". "It is not possible to live on one land with more than one state, more than one legitimate army, more than one authority, and more than one sovereignty," Rai said, in an apparent reference to Hezbollah's arsenal. Hezbollah, founded by Iran's Revolutionary Guards in 1982, is Lebanon's most powerful group. Its arsenal has long been a point of conflict in Lebanon, where its opponents accuse the group of undermining the state. Lebanon has been suffering a four-year-long financial collapse that has marked its most destabilising episode since the 1975-90 civil war. It was caused by decades of corruption and profligate spending by ruling politicians.

Al-Rahi voices pain over deaths of both Kahale man, Hezbollah member
Naharnet/August 13, 2023
Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi on Sunday expressed his "pain and grief with the dear residents of Ain Ebel" over the death of Lebanese Forces member Elias Hasrouni, who was abducted and killed earlier this month. "He struggled with them during the years of resilience and struggle," al-Rahi added. Turning to the deadly Kahale incident, the patriarch expressed solidarity with residents and said Fadi Bejjani was "the victim of Hezbollah's arms truck." "We're also pained by the fall of a victim from its (Hezbollah's) ranks," al-Rahi added.Stressing that "the investigation should be left to the military institution, security agencies and the judiciary, out of our permanent faith in the state and its institutions," al-Rahi added: "We will not deviate from the approach of the state and we will not descend into living without it at a time we are calling on the country's components and parties to be under the state's authority, especially as to the use of arms."The patriarch also emphasized that "it is impossible to live on one land with two states, two armies, two authorities and two sovereignties.""That's why the Taif Agreement should be implemented," al-Rahi added, while calling for "the election of president as soon as possible.""The failure to elect a president since last September is unjustified, seeing as he is the guarantor of state institutions' revival and the preserver of the coexistence formula," the patriarch went on to say.

Bishop Aoudi's Homely Text For Today August 13/2023: Officials are above accountability, and the port's crime is the most prominent evidence
NNA/LCCC/13 August/2023
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/121138/121138/
The Greek Orthodox Metropolitan of Beirut and its dependencies, Archbishop Elias Aoudi , presided over the Divine Liturgy at St. George's Cathedral. After the Gospel, he delivered a sermon in which he said:
"If only the citizen could put his trust, after God, in the officials, politicians, and leaders who control the country! If only he could turn to them for every problem he faces, or hold them accountable for every fall or mistake they make! But they are above accountability, and the port crime is the most prominent evidence. How can the citizen trust them and the judiciary?" Our hope is that they will come back to their senses, become aware of their mistakes, hear the voice of conscience, and devote all their attention to the interest of the country and the citizen so that Lebanon does not empty more of its children. They declared Beirut the capital of Arab youth. This is good. But what about the youth of Lebanon? Have they thought that most of the Lebanese youth have They emigrated, perhaps never to return? Where are the energies? Where are the competencies that will build Lebanon the future? Where are the brains that will save Lebanon? Shouldn't those in power secure the best environment to encourage our youth to stay, work and innovate?"And he concluded: “Our call today is to believe in the Lord Jesus, no matter how severe the trials are, and the storms of this life confront us, and to have full hope in Him as He is the Creator of the heavens and the earth and what is on them, and the knowledgeable of the contents of hearts, and “a humble and submissive heart is not despised by God,” as the psalmist says. If we emulate the Mother of God, who saw her son crucified and buried dead, but she was confident that he would rise, glorify and glorify humanity with him, saving her from her sins.

Lebanon's stance: Concerns over UNIFIL mandate extension draft resolution
LBCI/August 13, 2023
A draft resolution to extend the mandate of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) has raised concerns, as it contains harsh reforms directed towards Lebanon, according to LBCI's sources. The final form of the resolution is expected to be ratified on August 31. Among the points that Lebanon objects to is the section related to the freedom of movement for international forces in the south. Although the current resolution and the amendment of 2022 granted UNIFIL the freedom to move without prior authorization from the Lebanese Army or its escort, this has not been effectively implemented on the ground due to a decision by UNIFIL rather than the Lebanese state. Today, those drafting the resolution, notably France alongside Israel, are revisiting this point, although Lebanon remains steadfast in its stance. Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib is working towards a formula that maintains coordination between the Lebanese Army and UNIFIL while gaining acceptance from the UN Security Council. Another alarming aspect of the draft resolution pertains to the designation of armed entities in Lebanon outside the framework of legitimacy, as reported by LBCI. In the clause referring to armed groups, the terminology has been altered from "armed factions" – a reference to all armed entities in Lebanon, including Hezbollah, Palestinian factions, and other groups – to "armed groups," with a clear indication towards Hezbollah. Lebanon disputes this alteration, as various other armed groups exist within Lebanon outside the framework of legitimacy beyond Hezbollah. Lebanon also aims to amend other resolution items, including naming the northern part of the Ghajar village and the term "improvements" used to describe Israeli actions in the area. Regarding the northern portion of Ghajar, Lebanon insists on naming it "Mari village outskirts," reaffirming its Lebanese identity and distinguishing it from Syria. Furthermore, Lebanon contests the term "improvements" about Israel's actions, asserting that they are military fortifications rather than enhancements. They built a separation wall, barbed wire, security towers, and surveillance cameras. The Lebanese delegation will present these concerns to the Security Council member states in New York in the days leading up to the resolution's issuance. The objective is to persuade these nations to align with Lebanon's stance.

Qassem says Kahale incident attempt to 'fabricate nonexistent issue'
Naharnet/August 13, 2023
Hezbollah deputy chief Sheikh Naim Qassem has visited the family of slain Hezbollah member Ahmed Qassas, who was killed in the Kahale clash on Wednesday. “The footage revealed that Qassas was the symbol of honor, loyalty and dignity in his resistant position and he sacrificed his blood for the interest of Lebanon,” Qassem told the family. Calling on security and judicial agencies to “follow up and investigate accurately in order to penalize the sedition stirrers who tried to take the country into the abyss,” Hezbollah’s number two warned that “what happened in Kahale was an attempt to stir sedition and fabricate a nonexistent issue.” Qassem also lauded “the political forces and people who stood by Hezbollah and were working together to pacify the situations and put out sedition.” Qassas and a resident of Kahale, both of whom were armed, were killed in an exchange of gunfire Wednesday after a Hezbollah ammunition truck flipped over on the international highway that passes through the town. The incident started after some residents learned that the truck belonged to Hezbollah. They surrounded it and demanded to know what was inside before a fistfight ensued between two individuals. Footage available online also shows Kahale residents hurling rocks at the overturned truck and its guards and the Hezbollah members brandishing weapons and shooting in the area. Another videos shows a short-distance exchange of gunfire between Hezbollah members and Fadi Bejjani, the Kahale man who was killed in the violence. The identity of the individual who fired the first shot is still unclear.

Nasrallah meets with leader of Palestinian Islamic Jihad
Naharnet/August 13, 2023
Hezbollah Secretary-General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah has met with Ziad Nakhalah, the leader of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad movement, who was accompanied by his deputy Mohammed al-Hindi, a Hezbollah statement said on Sunday. The talks tackled “the latest developments in Palestine, Lebanon and the region,” the statement added. The two leaders also “evaluated the current events and the chances available for the Axis of Resistance amid the current circumstances,” the statement said

Update on Lebanon assassination investigations presented to Palestinian delegation
LBCI/August 13, 2023
A small delegation from the Joint Palestinian Work Committee in Lebanon met with the investigating committee led by the head of the Palestinian Military Retirees Authority, Mouin Kaoush, to hear the latest developments regarding the investigation into the assassination attempt that targeted the leader of the Palestinian National Security Forces in Sidon, along with his brothers, Abu Ashraf Al-Armoushi, as well as the assassination attempt targeting Abdul Rahman Farhoud. The investigating committee affirmed its continued efforts and significant progress in completing its assigned tasks. It emphasized the extensive cooperation and facilitation provided by all parties involved. The committee revealed that it will submit its final report to the Joint Palestinian Work Committee in Lebanon soon for a decision.

Dilemma looms over public sector salaries: In dollars or Lebanese lira?
LBCI/August 13, 2023
Will public sector employees receive their salaries in dollars or Lebanese lira at the end of the month? This predicament has emerged following the Banque du Liban (BDL) suspension of dollar support to the government following the Sayrafa platform, jeopardizing the payment of public sector salaries. The decision by acting BDL governor Wassim Mansouri to refrain from tapping into foreign reserves without a borrowing law has led to concerns over the fate of salaries. However, sources indicate that salaries are secured, but as for the currency selected, three potential scenarios are being considered.
The first scenario entails disbursing salaries this month in dollars, utilizing the remaining Special Drawing Rights (SDR) funds. As reported by Finance Ministry sources, these funds are deemed sufficient for August's payouts; however, the decision ultimately rests with the Cabinet. The second scenario involves paying salaries in Lebanese lira, assuming that the state possesses ample local currency from its revenues. Yet, this move could pose challenges, as injecting more lira into the market could intensify pressure on the dollar, causing its exchange rate to rise. The third possible scenario may involve the intervention of the BDL. Nevertheless, this intervention would not involve tapping into the foreign reserves. Instead, the BDL could purchase dollars from the market using the available cash in Lebanese lira that the government holds, therefore enabling salary disbursements in dollars. Sources close to the deputy governors suggest that this step is legally permissible under the Monetary and Credit Law and underline that it is not the BDL's responsibility to distribute salaries. Instead, its market intervention to purchase dollars and pay them to employees aims to stabilize the exchange rate and prevent its collapse. These sources further elaborate that even for this step to be taken, the state must have acquired sufficient cash in lira from its revenues. The BDL will collaborate with the Finance Ministry to assess the financial feasibility. Therefore, the final decision is expected to be reached in the upcoming days.

Citizen throws firebomb at technical fence surrounding settlement of Mtolleh, enemy responds with gunshot towards Lebanon's territory
NNA/August 13, 2023
Marjeyoun - A citizen threw a firebomb at the technical fence surrounding the settlement of Mtolleh opposite the plain of Marjeyoun on Sunday, following which the Israeli enemy responded by firing a gunshot toward the Lebanese territory without recording any injuries, NNA correspondent reported.

Druze Sheikh Al-Aql: To raise level of political discourse, not slide into strife
NNA/August 13, 2023
Druze Sheikh Al-Aql, Dr. Sami Abi Al-Muna, urged Sunday the Lebanese officials to “demonstrate the spirit of national responsibility and raise the level of political discourse in favor of the country's and people's higher interests, and not to slide towards strife and anything that would deepen the internal division."
He also called for "practicing wisdom and discipline in light of the prevailing difficult circumstances, as the country witnesses fragility at all levels, the latest of which being the alarming security situation resulting from the Kahale incident and its unfortunate repercussions." The Druze Sheikh Al-Aql believed in an issued statement, that "what is required is restraint, venting political and sectarian tension, and relying on the state and its institutions, especially at the security and military levels, for we are confident that the army is able to take control of matters and undertake the necessary and reassuring investigations for the families of the two victims to whom we offer our condolences, and work together to reduce the country's veering towards the abyss.”Abi Al-Muna concluded by reminding of the fateful financial and economic entitlements facing the country, and that the Lebanese are still waiting for appropriate solutions to the issues at stake in order to achieve political, economic and social stability.

X - Twitter - Bassil on forensic audit: There is a financial crime unprecedented in human history
NNA/August 13, 2023
"Since 2005, General Aoun has been calling for forensic audit, and he was able to impose his signature as president in 2021, with strong opposition from the regime. Finally, the initial report appeared with a great delay and an incomplete copy due to Salameh obstructing and withholding many of the data requested by the company, and this alone deserves criminal prosecution,” wrote the head of the Free Patriotic Movement, MP Gebran Bassil, via the "X" platform on Sunday. Bassil continued: “The report showed many violations and thefts of public funds and depositors’ money, and the most dangerous thing it revealed was that the cost of direct financial engineering, in addition to bonuses, amounting to $76 billion, which is equal to its financial gap." "This is an unprecedented financial crime in the history of mankind, and the judiciary is responsible for the investigation, and the parliament must act because the Lebanese people have the right to know who stole their money," FPM Chief went on. He concluded by saying: "We are facing a historical precedent in Lebanon: accountability, not pardon! The report is a condemnation of an entire political era, and of a system whose treasurer is the Central Bank governor,and is hostile to us in every way, and by buying off judges, media professionals and politicians, it shows how bribed they were when they cursed us in defense of the governor".

 MP Nadim Gemayel in a high-pitched speech about Europe, Syrian refugees issue: Let them go there, they will take care of you
NNA/August 13, 2023 
"The security authorities who stopped the displaced who tried to immigrate to Europe should allow them to leave, as Europe welcomes them and supports the idea of ​​displacement and does not see any need for their return to Syria," MP Nadim Gemayel wrote on Sunday via the "X" platform.
"Let them find a decent life and a secure future, guaranteed by Europe," he said.

"Hezbollah" denies visit to Kahaleh to offer condolences to Bejjani family
NNA/August 13, 2023
Hezbollah's media relations denied, in a statement this afternoon, what was published by the "Lebanon 24" website, that a delegation from Hezbollah visited the town of Kahaleh to offer condolences to the Bejani family, saying: “This news is categorically untrue.”

Heatwaves and wildfires: Lebanon braces for high fire risk amid soaring temperatures
LBCI/August 13, 2023
With temperatures soaring to 41 degrees Celsius in inland areas and reaching 37 degrees in coastal and mountainous regions, Lebanon faces an imminent threat of wildfires. The scorching heatwave is expected to persist for the next two days, further exacerbating the risk of wildfires. The combination of extreme temperatures and gusty winds has already led to the outbreak of 111 fires within 24 hours. The Fire Risk Index is projected to escalate significantly in the upcoming days, particularly in high-risk areas such as Northern Bekaa, Western Bekaa, and Rashaya. Regions with dense vegetation cover, including Akkar, Donnieh, Batroun, Byblos, Matn, Baabda, Aley, Chouf, Tyre, and Hasbaya, are also at high risk of wildfires. Is Lebanon ready for the upcoming fire season? The Civil Defense forces remain on high alert, but they are grappling with severe shortages of equipment and resources. In response to the escalating danger, the Environment Ministry has established "High-Risk Area Teams" and "First Responders Teams," comprised of associations, municipalities, civil defense units, and volunteers. These teams are tasked with monitoring and assessing the wildfire risk, functioning as supportive units to the Civil Defense. The Environment Minister, Nasser Yassin, reported to LBCI that these measures could help mitigate the impact of potential "catastrophic fires." The ministry relies on early warnings issued by the National Council for Scientific Research (CNRS) and the University of Balamand to anticipate fire risks. However, the efficacy of these efforts hinges on the available resources and capacities. In the face of this heightened fire risk, citizens are urged to exercise extreme caution and refrain from igniting fires in wooded or high-risk areas for any reason.

Series of irregularities: Forensic audit report uncovers $47 billion depletion from BDL reserves
LBCI/August 13, 2023
Lebanon's financial turmoil continues to unravel as the details of a forensic audit report expose a trail of mismanagement and losses. The Banque du Liban (BDL) has reportedly seen over $47 billion drained from its reserves between 2010 and 2021, raising concerns about the fate of these funds. Approximately $24.5 billion was directed towards the Energy and Electricity Ministry, divided as follows: - $18.4 billion allocated as treasury advances for fuel purchases by Electricité du Liban (EDL), accompanied by $543 million in direct transfers to the company. -$5.6 billion was disbursed to the Energy Ministry for various expenses, including maintenance, service provider payments, and project planning, revealing a deep-rooted crisis in the electricity sector. In addition to the funds spent on the electricity sector, further scrutiny reveals that an additional $7.6 billion was lost by BDL due to the government's subsidy policy post-crisis. These subsidies were intended to support fuel, medicines, wheat, and food products. Unfortunately, the funds primarily ended up in exploitation, monopolization, and smuggling, depriving the public of their intended benefits. The audit also highlights $8 billion that BDL redirected overseas to settle state obligations related to telecommunications, internet services, foreign debt, and interests. Additionally, the funds covered expenses for the external diplomatic corps, security and military equipment maintenance, and various state costs, with around $200 million transferred to the state's general expenditures. A substantial loss of $7.4 billion stemmed from the devaluation of Eurobonds following the state's inability to make timely payments and its failure to restructure its debts. These accumulated losses total more than $47 billion, a staggering amount drawn from the people's hard-earned money and deposits. Accountability and responsibility remain elusive despite the gravity of these financial irregularities and losses. The absence of questioning, investigation, or consequences from authorities compounds the sense of injustice felt by the Lebanese.

Spain dismantles criminal network to smuggle Syrian migrants from Lebanon to Spain
LBCI/August 13, 2023
Spanish authorities have announced the dismantling of a criminal organization that smuggled Syrian migrants from Lebanon to Spain, Germany, and Norway, spanning three continents. In a statement, the police confirmed that they had "disrupted the logistical structure of a criminal organization specialized in smuggling Syrian migrants" in Spain in collaboration with Europol and the German Federal Police. Nineteen individuals were arrested on suspicion of "belonging to a criminal organization and involvement in illegal immigration," with six placed in pretrial detention. Spanish police explained that the migration route spanned three continents: Asia, Africa, and Europe, traversing through air, sea, and land. Each migrant paid the smugglers €20,000. The network collaborated with criminal organizations in other countries and received funds through "money transfers," amassing around €2.5 million. According to the investigation's initial findings, migrants departed from Lebanon, initially passing through Beirut Airport to Egypt for €4,000. From there, Syrians journeyed overland to Libya, Tunisia, and Algeria for €3,500. Subsequently, from the Algerian cities of Oran and Mostaganem, they were transported by boats to the Spanish coast for €10,000. Upon their arrival in Spain, migrants traveled by car to Madrid, Cuenca, and Toledo (central Spain), where they remained hidden under dire conditions, paying €250 per week until they obtained the necessary documents. Once they obtained their documents, they could either stay in Spain or travel to Germany or Norway for €1,000 or €2,000, respectively.

Lebanon Is a Global Sanctuary for Criminals
David Schenker, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy./Foreign Policy/August 02/2023
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/121169/121169/
A growing list of people protected from justice highlights a pervasive culture of impunity.
Three years ago this month, the Netherlands-based Special Tribunal for Lebanon convicted Hezbollah member Salim Ayyash in absentia for the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in 2005. Ayyash, a senior official in the Iran-backed terrorist organization’s Unit 121 assassination squad, still has not been apprehended and is currently believed to be in Lebanon under the protection of Hezbollah. It’s unlikely he will ever face justice.
An even more memorable anniversary is that of the August 2020 explosion in the port of Beirut, which killed over 200 people, injured more than 6,000, and displaced some 300,000. Here, too, no headway has been made on the investigation into who was responsible for the blast, which occurred when nearly 3,000 metric tons of improperly stored ammonium nitrate detonated in the capital. In addition to various government officials, Hezbollah has also been implicated in the disaster. Not only did the organization control the port, but it is widely suspected of having diverted some of the ammonium nitrate to the regime of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad to fuel the barrel bombs deployed against its own citizens during Syria’s civil war. Par for Lebanon’s course, legal proceedings are stalled.
Taken together, the anniversaries of the fruitless conviction of a political assassin and a catastrophic explosion with a murky genesis highlight Lebanon’s continued culture of impunity, including the country’s role as a sanctuary for prominent and not-so-prominent criminals and suspects wanted abroad. This is part of a long-established problem to which the Lebanese government actively contributes. Three years into a deep economic crisis, Lebanon is a failing state that depends on international support. That support is now threatened by Beirut’s contempt for accountability.
Treatment of suspects and convicted criminals who flee from abroad to Lebanon is a particular problem. Lebanese law prohibits the extradition of its nationals, yet there have been extraditions in the past. In 2019, Beirut rendered to the United States a dual Lebanese American citizen accused of abducting his 4-year-old son. While the country seldom extradites its alleged felons, Lebanon could prosecute and convict these individuals at home if a foreign country requests it and provides the case files. This rarely occurs, however, and the lackadaisical approach to lawbreakers has essentially established Lebanon as a premier sanctuary state.
The latest embarrassment concerns Rami Adwan, the Lebanese ambassador to France accused in June of raping two female employees of his embassy. After investigating these and other claims of abuse, Paris requested that Beirut lift the diplomat’s immunity to allow his prosecution to proceed in France. Instead of compelling the ambassador to face the allegations, however, the Lebanese foreign ministry recalled him to Beirut, thereby protecting the envoy from prosecution.
Beirut’s erratic approach to justice could become an irritant for donor states.
Like Adwan, Riad Salameh, the longtime governor of Lebanon’s central bank, is also being shielded from legal jeopardy abroad. In May, both France and Germany issued international arrest warrants for Salameh on corruption charges. Salameh, who stepped down this week after serving for 30 years, stands accused of pilfering some $300 million from the central bank during his tenure, a term that culminated with Lebanon’s financial collapse. Given the perennial endemic and massive graft that has bankrupted the state, Salameh’s alleged crimes barely stand out. But for many in Lebanon and abroad, he has become a symbol of official misconduct.
The Lebanese judiciary ordered the confiscation of Salameh’s passport, ostensibly to prevent him from going on the lam. It’s more likely, however, that Beirut wants to prevent him from traveling abroad and testifying in Europe, perhaps turning state’s evidence and potentially implicating dozens of Lebanon’s top politicos and bankers. After serving in this key financial role for so long, Salameh knows where the Lebanese power elite’s bodies are buried. It’s difficult to imagine he will venture abroad again.
Perhaps the most famous recipient of safe haven in Lebanon is Carlos Ghosn, the erstwhile CEO of Renault and Nissan. The businessman, who holds Lebanese, Brazilian, and French citizenship, was arrested in Japan in 2018 for financial misconduct and misuse of corporate assets. While on bail in 2019, Ghosn was smuggled out of Japan in a large audio equipment box, eventually finding safe haven in Lebanon. Despite being wanted by Tokyo and Paris, the tycoon resides comfortably in Beirut with his wife and estimated $70 million fortune.
Lebanon’s lack of accountability isn’t restricted to foreign cases and extradition requests. Dozens of political assassinations in Lebanon—most believed to have been carried out by Hezbollah—remain domestically unprosecuted. The Hariri verdict was unusual in that a perpetrator was convicted at all, even if he continues to escape punishment. Most high-profile killings are not even investigated. In February 2021, for example, the prominent Hezbollah critic Lokman Slim was assassinated by a hit team in the Shiite militia’s heartland. No progress has been made on the case. More recently, in December 2022, an Irish United Nations peacekeeper in southern Lebanon was lynched by a group of self-identified Hezbollah members. Five individuals were charged in the attack, but only one has been taken into custody.
The reticence of successive governments in Beirut to hold Hezbollah accountable for its crimes is regrettable but understandable. Hezbollah is suspected of killing, in 2008 and 2012, two officers in the state’s Internal Security Forces investigating the militia’s role in the Hariri assassination. But Hezbollah’s penchant for dispatching its adversaries is no reason for Lebanon’s laxity with respect to other criminals.
Beirut’s erratic approach to justice could become an irritant for donor states. Three years into a financial crisis that has seen a 98 percent devaluation of the Lebanese lira and a default on the country’s sovereign debt, Lebanon is increasingly reliant on foreign humanitarian and financial assistance. Lebanon’s protection of Adwan, Salameh, and Ghosn is a direct snub—without consequence so far—to the country’s two largest European donors, France and Germany.
If accountability is not a priority in European capitals, it is a significant concern in Washington, which provides even more aid to Beirut than Paris or Berlin. In recent years, the U.S. Treasury Department has designated a handful of Lebanese elites for corruption under the Global Magnitsky Act and the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. There has been bipartisan support for these sanctions in Congress but also rising frustration with the lack of progress in Beirut. Some U.S. legislators, most notably Sen. Ted Cruz, have called for an end to U.S. aid to the country for its corruption and tolerance of Hezbollah.
While sanctions are a useful tool, they ultimately cannot solve the problem of impunity in Lebanon. Indeed, consecutive Lebanese governments—whether oriented toward Washington or Damascus or Tehran—have repeatedly ignored U.S. and European pressure. That leaves little hope that electing a new Lebanese president or installing a new government, by itself, would lead to a change in policy.
Washington should nonetheless persist in the promotion of rule of law. Last month, the United States, France, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Egypt—the so-called Quintet—met in Doha to press Lebanon to hold presidential elections and to encourage economic reform. The Quintet threatened sanctions against individuals blocking the election but specified no repercussions for those obstructing reforms and implementation of rule of law. However, while the coordinated initiative is helpful, the emphasis on a presidential election is misplaced.
Instead of focusing on the election of what will undoubtedly be another weak chief executive, Washington and its partners should focus on accountability, starting with Salameh. The central bank governor should have his day in a European court, where, if so inclined, he can come clean about the policies and people who precipitated Lebanon’s financial crisis. The Quintet should consider conditioning the Lebanese delegation’s travel to the U.N. General Assembly in September on the extradition of Salameh to France.
For too long, the Lebanese people have suffered from their international partners’ low expectations for the country. The problem here is not the anti-extradition law but an abiding disinclination toward reform and accountability. Even if prosecuting Hezbollah members in Lebanon seems too dangerous at present, extraditing other alleged criminals is something even the current caretaker government in Beirut can and should do. It would be a small yet important first step on Lebanon’s road to accountability.
*David Schenker is a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and a former assistant secretary of state for Near East affairs during the Trump administration.

The Traps of a Working Solution in Lebanon
Charles Elias Chartouni/August 13, 2023
While discussing the stalemated political crisis with an old French friend, who served, on and an off, as a diplomat in Lebanon, he asked me whether our country has any chance surviving the state of continuous coup d’état, the congenial malformations of elusive nationhood, dysfunctional statehood, disruptive primordial loyalties undermining its legitimacy and challenging its existence, and its transformation into a wasteland where thrive organized crime, endemic anomie and existential insecurity.  These legitimate questions are quite obvious for observers of the Lebanese political scene, and makes them wonder whether the normative premisses of our national existence based on religious ecumenism, cultural pluralism, liberal ethics and constitutional statehood have any chance surviving in a region that never succeeded finalizing its geopolitical parametrics and stabilization, and failed its transition into political modernity based on the rule of law, national sovereignty, the fundamentals of liberal civility, while tackling the issues of pluralism, working statehood, economic rationality, distributive issues and social justice and environmental sustainability…,. The answer is obviously no, since the landmarking political, cultural and socio-economic records, and the overall ecological substratum were deliberately maligned and destroyed with no qualms, of whichever nature, when the conditions of political annihilation were summoned on a cyclical basis by various coalitions (PLO-Leftist formations, competing Arab power politics, and Iranian Shiite autocracy…). The actual maelström featured through the continuous bouts of Shiite terrorism, highlighted and acclaimed by Hezbollah’s political doxa, systematic destruction of basic civility, democratic ethos and norms of functional governance. This political nihilism added to the bitter legacy of unsettled civil war travails, oligarchic entrenchments, geopolitical instability, and controversial notions of common good, public space and democracy, attest to this state of perpetuating obstructionism, and inability to address the still pending but manageable, civil peace, constitutional, financial and socio-economic problems. Nothing accounts for this malevolence but the undermined political culture and its subtexts, the domination strategy of Shiite militancy, the hazards of a volatile regional order, the vested interests of shifting oligarchic coalitions, and the corrosive effects of “social protracted conflicts” and their breeding grounds of normalized delinquency and political criminality. The international mediations have failed on account of Shiite destructive power politics uninterested in conflict resolution, and leveraging mediations to uphold supremacism and factionalism, recast systemic equilibriums and prepare the projected takeover. Managing the illusion of a working political solution with such basic dispositions damns this illusion and its normative premisses and future. There is no future for equitable and working political solutions when the basics of civility, political justice, and human decency are flawed and defiantly challenged.

Lebanon's Fragility in Regional and International Agreements, Amid Its Embarrassing Local Disputes
Raghida Dergham/August 13, 2023
Contrary to some Lebanese assumptions when analyzing the impact of Riyadh-Tehran relations on Lebanon, there is no real rift in the Saudi-Iranian agreement brokered by China. Rather, there is a serious litmus test underway of Iran’s goodwill and intention to practically translate the new direction in relations with the Arab world, such as with the case of the Dura gas field disputed between Iran on one side and Saudi Arabia and Kuwait on the other. While Lebanon is not a top priority in the Saudi-Iranian dialogue, it is not completely excluded from this stage of discussions either. Yet both parties have so far avoided discussing Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon, and according to well-informed diplomatic sources, the priority now is for implementing the bilateral element in the agreement, with Saudi Arabia now awaiting the visit of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi.
Lebanon's narcissism may explain why its internal turmoil is often blamed on foreign meddling, and also by way of deflecting responsibility. However, a realistic political reading will lead to the conclusion that the Islamic Republic of Iran continues to hold Lebanon hostage through its indispensable ally Hezbollah. Indeed, not everyone in Iran’s regime favors the agreement with Saudi Arabia. A significant segment of Iranian leaders want escalation as US-Saudi relations are being boosted by a major reset, making the revival of the nuclear agreement, which would lift sanctions on Iran, unlikely before the US presidential elections. Consequently, Lebanon is a potential arena for escalation if Tehran deems it necessary. Lebanon is also linked to the Iranian agenda in Syria and rogue Palestinian agendas disguised as resistance with false claims of seeking the liberation of Palestine.
Saudi Arabia's advisory to its citizens against travel to or remaining in Lebanon, a move followed by other Gulf countries, last week sparked fear among many. However, Lebanese authorities, as usual, demonstrated complacency, issuing "reassuring" statements and entirely ignoring security risks in Palestinian camps that had triggered the Gulf states’ warnings. The armed Palestinian factions' violent disputes within the camps are not superficial but rather reflect a struggle for influence and control between Fatah and Hamas, along with other Islamic factions, in a country already on the tip of a volcano. The Palestinian factions' arms outside the state's control are a mirror of Hezbollah's weapons, which challenge the state’s sovereignty to execute Iran's agenda in Lebanon.
Gulf diplomatic sources who asked not to be named said, "We have not received any positive signals from Hezbollah after the bilateral Saudi-Iranian agreement given the statements of Hezbollah's Secretary-General, Hassan Nasrallah, and the party's continued support for Yemeni and Iraqi factions” making Hezbollah the main obstructing factor.
The Gulf countries, and the Arab states in general, are conveying to Lebanon that total collapse will be inevitable if the ruling class continues its games and ploys for electing a president, forming a government, and appointing a central bank governor. The banality of some players is matched only by their narcissism, while Hezbollah is vying with the "Shia duo" to create a new system in Lebanon that officially legitimizes its weapons. However, the Gulf countries, especially Saudi Arabia, want to fortify the Taif Agreement, bolster the National Accord Charter, and shore up the authority of the president and prime minister.
According to a Gulf diplomat deployed to Lebanon, initiating a mechanism to develop radical solutions is the purview of the elected president, who should establish a dialogue based on the essence of the Taif Agreement and the "national partnership equation," as envisioned by former Lebanese Prime Minister Takieddine Solh who said that Lebanon's independence is the responsibility of its Christians, and its democracy the responsibility of its Muslims.
The Gulf diplomat said that the broader framework for addressing this crisis lies with the Arab depth of Lebanon. Any solution, he added, requires examining the crisis from a political perspective, not just an economic one. In other words, Lebanon needs to reconsider its foreign policy priorities, rather than focusing solely on the economic aspects of its relations with the Gulf. Lebanon remains under Iran’s dominance, which tightens its hold through Hezbollah.
What does Hezbollah want from the incoming president? They want one who is aligned with their interests, and one who provides them guarantees. The ‘Party of God’ might accept Army Commander Joseph Aoun’s presidency as a compromise—he is acceptable regionally and to the United States, as well as to significant Lebanese factions. However, what Hezbollah seeks to ensure from the army commander in return could be prohibitively costly, to the point of impossibility. The incident in Kahaleh when a truck loaded with Hezbollah weapons overturned at an infamous bend in the road, has proven to be a test for the army’s leadership and has laid bare Hezbollah's intentions.
Here, the regional equation enters the fray of local Lebanese considerations. It might lead Hezbollah's Secretary-General to show some humility and settle for less than complete control over the president and the army commander. Indeed, Iran, or some of its leaders, do not want their domination over Lebanon to be labeled as brazen. Meanwhile, they are not comfortable with the developments in Syria, where Iran's relationship with Russia is under strain, and where the United States and Turkey are clearly converging. Meanwhile, Russia increasingly needs Turkey and is willing to make a deal on Syria, which unsettles Iran.
These geopolitical considerations are driving policymaking within the governing Iranian establishment. This establishment is also grappling with internal restlessness due to its major policy pivots such as the agreement with Saudi Arabia. In Tehran, there are those who are not satisfied with consecrating Saudi Arabia's Sunni leadership and strengthening its role as a regional and even international player, as evidenced by its recent crucial Jeddah summit to find a solution to the Ukraine conflict, attended by more than 40 countries, including China and India, despite Russia's boycott. This faction in Iran wants to retain Hezbollah as a valuable card in Lebanon for disruptive purposes and for future negotiations with Saudi Arabia.
What is the extent of influence of this camp within the ruling Iranian establishment? It is still too early to make a final judgment, and therefore, Gulf states, especially Saudi Arabia are under no illusion that a radical and definitive change has really occurred in the Islamic Republic of Iran’s policy and ideology. But Iran’s behavior in the shared waterways is being monitored in the hope it would demonstrate good intentions and refrain from threatening the freedom of navigation there. The crucial aspect lies in implementation, whether it entails refraining from escalating the situation in Yemen or abstaining from increasing uranium enrichment for use in nuclear weapons production.
Any significant economic cooperation between Saudi Arabia, the Gulf states in general, and Iran is contingent upon lifting American and international sanctions on Tehran related to the nuclear issue. There doesn't seem to be an imminent nuclear agreement, but there are deals that could involve a commitment from Iran not to increase enrichment and to release American detainees in exchange for the release of Iranian funds held by third parties.
Europeans remain uneasy about these exchanges, and China is also uncomfortable because it wants to return to the nuclear agreement. Neither party wants to involve the hostage issue in the nuclear deal. However, in practical terms, the revival of the nuclear agreement does not seem plausible before the US elections, thus Iran will not be able to benefit from full sanctions relief soon.
The impact of Iran's critical economic situation will not be contained internally as it will affect its proxies and direct engagements – with Syria being an example. Tehran is observing Arab reactions towards Syria, and a forthcoming meeting of an Arab League ad-hoc committee will convene to follow the "step-by-step" agreement for Syria's comprehensive rehabilitation. Incidentally, a Gulf source has stressed that claims of setbacks in Saudi-Syrian relations as being one of the reasons behind the Saudi travel advisory for Lebanon are "completely untrue."
Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to soon meet with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Turkey, and Syria will be a topic of discussion, not in the way Tehran necessarily desires. Erdogan will be resolute having bolstered his position within the NATO alliance. He wants to have a free hand in Syria while expecting Putin not to interfere – in exchange for giving Putin what he urgently needs from Erdogan, namely the transit of Russian goods through Turkey. Putin will have to be flexible in the face of Erdogan's steadfastness. Erdogan wants to renew the grain deal with Ukraine and obtain the ability to operate freely in Syria. This is bad news for Tehran, which has pledged to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to recover all Syrian territories while remaining the sole regional military player in Syria. However, this is less likely to materialize because Russia is no longer Iran's unwavering partner in Syria, in light of the changing dynamics in the wake of the Ukrainian conflict. The door now is open to Russia accepting what it was not prepared to concede before, regarding Turkey's demands in Syria. Turkey benefits, while Iran is concerned and uneasy for several reasons.
One of these reasons is Turkey's mending of its relationship with NATO countries, led by the United States. Furthermore, President Joe Biden's administration has completely shifted its relations with Saudi Arabia, and the Islamic Republic of Iran is uneasy about the rise of Saudi influence regionally and internationally amidst significant American openness to Riyadh, despite the fact that Saudi leadership has raised the ceiling of its demands for achieving that "grand bargain" sought after by the United States.
Irani’s leaders are aware of the significance of the Biden administration's pivot from the policies of the Obama administration, which had shown a clear tilt towards Iran and open antagonism towards the Arab Gulf states. Many figures in the Biden administration are, in fact, holdovers from the Obama era and did not serve in Republican administrations or under Donald Trump. This situation greatly favors Saudi Arabia because any negotiations aimed at bolstering security, military, intelligence, economic, and technological cooperation would then be guaranteed by a Democratic administration. This will prove advantageous for Saudi Arabia in the long run, regardless of the outcomes of presidential elections, given that Saudi relations with Republican administrations have generally been more positive than those with Democratic administrations.
The critical components of the "grand bargain" are focused on US-Saudi relations, where Riyadh's demands are exceedingly high, leading to concerns in Iran. Iran is uncomfortable with Saudi Arabia's growing influence in the United States, or with its influence in China, India, Russia, and other nations.
Moreover, because the Palestinian issue has been consistently exploited by the Iranian Islamic Republic to manipulate and disparage the Arab nations, the resolute Saudi position within the framework of the "grand deal" towards the Palestinian question is also unsettling for Tehran and the Revolutionary Guard who reject the notion of making concessions pursuant to the Saudi-Iranian agreement, guaranteed by China. Instead, they insist on leveraging Palestinian factions and Hezbollah's influence to validate their presence and exhibit their capabilities in the Lebanese arena while maintaining the latter’s fragility and vulnerability to eruption.
Hezbollah is not the only ally of the Revolutionary Guard within Lebanon. The eagerness of some Christian factions to take the presidency has transformed them into de facto allies of the Iranian military entity that spawns militias and non-regular forces in Lebanon to serve its own interests, often at their expense.
There was some hope that the Saudi-Iranian understandings might herald a substantial breakthrough in Lebanon, and there was also a bet on the capabilities of the Quintet Committee tasked with overseeing the Lebanese matter. This committee is comprised of the United States, France, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Qatar. Both possibilities remain viable. The Quintet countries have begun contemplating imposing sanctions and measures necessary to change the behavior of Lebanon's political class.
France has played a negative role, albeit unintentionally, due to its erratic diplomatic approach characterized by a mixture of ignorance, arrogance, and appeasement. However, France has now adopted some corrective measures. Similarly, the Biden administration has displayed naivety in Lebanon, both due to conscious diplomatic decisions and because it perceived Lebanon as peripheral rather than a priority, except when it contributed to delineating maritime borders between Lebanon and Israel –the importance of this achievement should not be downplayed, nor should the indications of impending pressures be disregarded.  Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Qatar are exerting considerable efforts. Nevertheless, the time has arrived for more stringent actions towards the Lebanese factions and for earnest discussions with the Iranian leadership concerning Hezbollah. Delaying these conversations could trigger catastrophic scenarios akin to Hezbollah’s "had I known” scenario [triggering the 2006 war with Israel] which inflicted substantial damage on Lebanon.

Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on August 13-14/2023
Pope Francis: Mediterranean migrants "an open wound in our humanity"'
NNA/August 13, 2023
The death of migrants in the Mediterranean is an open wound in our humanity," Pope Francis was quoted as saying by "Agence France-Presse" on Sunday, after a series of drowning accidents in which many died. The 86-year-old Pope said during the weekly Angelus prayer that he "prays for 41 people who went missing this week," according to the testimonies of four people who were rescued at sea and disembarked on the Italian island of Lampedusa on Wednesday. The Pope described as "painful and shameful" the numbers of the International Organization for Migration of the United Nations, which reported on Saturday that the death toll of migrants who died in the Mediterranean amounted to at least 2060 people since the beginning of the year. According to the agency, more than 1,800 of them died in the central sector of the Mediterranean, that is, between North Africa and Italy, the most life-threatening migration route in the world.

Iranian television announces that ISIS has claimed responsibility for the attack on a religious shrine in Shiraz
NNA/August 13, 2023
Iranian television announced this evening that ISIS claimed responsibility for the terrorist attack that targeted the Shah Cheragh's shrine in Shiraz, in the south of the country, according to "Russia Today".

Four persons killed in an attack on a Shiite shrine in Shiraz
NNA/August 13, 2023
At least four people were killed in an attack on a Shiite shrine in Shiraz on Sunday, Iranian state media reported, adding that two armed "terrorists" entered the vicinity of the shrine, according to Reuters. The Shah Cheragh mosque was the target of another attack in October when gunmen from the Islamic State group shot and killed 15 people. State media reported that one of the gunmen had been arrested.

Attack on Iran's shrine kills at least one, injures several people - official
DUBAI (Reuters)/August 13, 2023
An attack on a Shi'ite Muslim shrine in Iran's southern city of Shiraz killed at least one person on Sunday, a local official told state TV, adding that one person had been arrested. Iranian state media earlier reported that at least four people had been killed in the attack. "It happened around 19:00 local time (15:30 GMT) ... an armed terrorist entered the Shrine area and started shooting ... he was arrested," said Mohammad Hadi Imaniyeh, the governor of Fars province. "One person was killed in the attack."At least seven people were wounded, including two workers at the shrine and two pilgrims, and shops in the area had been closed. State TV said the shrine area had been cordoned off by security forces. No group immediately claimed responsibility for the attack on the Shah Cheragh shrine, which state news agency IRNA said had been carried out by terrorists. Islamic State last October said it had launched an attack on the shrine in which 15 people were killed. Islamic state has claimed previous attacks in Iran, including the deadly twin bombings in 2017 that targeted Iran's parliament and the tomb of the Islamic Republic's founder, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. Videos on Iranian state media showed panicked worshippers running to find their relatives and bloodied clothes left in the aftermath of the attack.

Gunman in southern Iran opens fire at prominent Shiite shrine, killing 1 and wounding 8 others
TEHRAN, Iran (AP)/August 13, 2023
A gunman opened fire Sunday night at a prominent shrine in southern Iran, killing one person and wounding eight others in an attack that followed another assault there months earlier, authorities said. Officials offered no immediate motive for the attack in the city of Shiraz at Shah Cheragh, which draws Shiite pilgrims to its domed mosque and the tomb of a prominent member of the faith from its earliest days. However, Iran has faced attacks in the past from the Sunni extremists of the Islamic State group, who view Shiites as heretics. Iran also faces lingering unrest and economic turmoil amid tensions with the West. Iran's state-run IRNA news agency quoted Ismail Qezelsofla, a deputy governor for security in the country's Fars province, as offering the casualty toll. Fars province Gov. Mohammad Hadi Imanieh told Iranian state television that a single gunman carried out the attack and later was detained by security forces. He did not offer any motive for the attack in his brief comments. Footage after the attack showed security forces surround one entrance to the then-deserted courtyard of Shah Cheragh at sunset. Ambulances later took away the wounded as security forces and government officials reached the shrine. Shah Cheragh is one of Iran’s top five Shiite shrines. It draws pilgrims to Shiraz, which is some 675 kilometers (420 miles) south of Iran's capital, Tehran. No group immediately claimed responsibility for the attack. The attack Sunday night comes after an October 2022 attack on the same shrine killed 13 people and wounded dozens of others. The Islamic State group claimed the assault, which Iran said had been carried out by a man from Tajikistan, who later died in a hospital after succumbing to injuries he suffered while being detained by security forces. Iran has backed Syria's embattled Bashar Assad during his country's civil war. It also fought Islamic State fighters both there and in Iraq. The worst assault from Islamic State militants in Iran came in a June 2017 attack that killed at least 18 people and wounded more than 50 in Tehran as its gunmen stormed parliament and Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini’s mausoleum. Khomeini led the 1979 Islamic Revolution that toppled the Western-backed shah to become Iran’s first supreme leader until his death in 1989.

France announces achievement of its goals for current year on training Kiev forces
NNA/August 13, 2023
French Defense Minister Sebastien Le Cornio said that his country has achieved, since the beginning of this month, its goal for this year to train Kiev forces, stressing that it "will continue to train them as long as needed," according to "Russia Today" news agency. Le Cornio said, in an interview with the French newspaper Var-Matin: "We continue to train the Kiev forces, as the counterattack needs a new generation of well-trained Ukrainian military personnel in various equipment and weapons, and since the beginning of August, we have achieved our goal for this year, which was demonstrated by training 6 thousand Ukrainian soldiers distributed between France and Poland."The spokesman pointed out that France "continues to support Ukraine militarily, by providing it with the necessary military equipment, and monthly supplies of 155 mm NATO shells."

Military group in Niger requests support of Guinea
NNA/August 13, 2023
A delegation from the military coup group in Niger asked the Guinean authorities to "strengthen support to face the upcoming challenges," while West African countries are threatening to intervene militarily to restore constitutional order to Niamey, according to "Agence France-Presse."This was reported by Guinean state television, noting that "the country's President, Colonel Mamady Domboya, received in Conakry the Nigerien delegation, headed by General Moussa Salau Barmo, yesterday evening, Saturday."Barmo announced that he had come "to thank the Guinean authorities for their support to the National Council for the Protection of the Homeland (which has been in power since the coup), during these difficult times that Niger is going through."

Russian warship fires shots to intercept cargo ship in Black Sea
James Kilner/Telegraph/August 13, 2023
A Russian warship fired warning shots as it intercepted a cargo ship sailing towards Ukraine, the first time it has done so since a grain deal collapsed last month. Russia’s ministry of defence said that the Vasily Bykov fired its machine gun to force the Sukru Okan to stall in the Black Sea and then boarded it with a naval helicopter. “After the completion of the work of the inspection team on board the Sukru Okan, the ship continued to move to the port of Izmail,” it said. Izmail is a Ukrainian port on the Danube River. The Sukru Okan is a 34-year-old dry cargo ship that is named after a Turkish admiral. Maritime data showed that although it sails under the flag of Palau, a Pacific Island nation, the Sukru Okan is based in Istanbul and is operated by a Turkish company. Civilian cargo ships often sail under different flags to reduce costs and red tape. A UN-brokered grain deal that had allowed ships to dock in Ukraine to load grain after they had been inspected by Russian officials for arms smuggling collapsed because the Kremlin said that Ukraine had refused to reopen an ammonia pipeline. Rybar, a Telegram channel linked to the Russian military, said that during the dawn interception the Sukru Okan had tried to outrun and outwit the Vasily Bykov near Turkish and Bulgarian waters. “The ship’s crew did not respond to requests from Russian sailors. The transponder was turned off on the Sukru Okan, and the cargo ship, increasing its speed, tried to get away,” it said. The Vasily Bykov is one of Russia’s new Project-22160 patrol boats and can be armed with cruise missiles as well as anti-submarine weapons and helicopters. It attacked Snake Island in the northwestern sector of the Black Sea on the first day of the war last year alongside Russia’s Moskva warship and has been the target of several failed Ukrainian attacks since.Kyiv and Moscow have warned that since the collapse of the grain deal they will treat cargo ships as arms smugglers and will intercept them. Last week a Ukrainian naval drone hit a ship used by the Kremlin to export jet fuel to Syria. But, despite the threats, Ukraine has said that it is determined to forge a route for cargo ships to dock at Izmail, and this week its port authorities said a scheme to ease ship-to-ship cargo loading would “increase freight processing volumes”. US aerial surveillance drones and warplanes have also been guiding cargo ships through the Russian blockade, with the first three ships docking at Izmail on July 30. Meanwhile, Russia fired shells on Kherson in southern Ukraine on Sunday, killing a three-week old baby and her 12-year-old brother. The children’s parents were also killed in the attack on Shyroka Balka village, along with another man. In the neighbouring village of Stanislav, two people, including the pastor of a church, were killed, according to Governor Oleksandr Prokudin. The attacks follow an alleged attempted missile attack by Ukraine on the Kerch Bridge, which links Russia to the Crimean peninsula. Russia said the missiles were shot down and had caused no damage. Kyiv reclaimed part of Kherson from Russian occupation last November but Kremlin troops have continued shelling the regional capital and areas around it from across the Dnipro River. Also on Sunday, Sergei Dienko, the head of Ukraine’s border force, unveiled a new yellow and blue striped border post on Snake Island, marking it as part of Ukraine. Further along the Ukrainian coast, Odesa reopened its beaches to tourists for the first time since the start of the war, three weeks after a Russian missile destroyed its 18th-century cathedral and part of its Imperial-era city centre.

Jordanian army downs drone from Syria carrying meth - state news agency
BEIRUT (Reuters)/August 13, 2023
The Jordanian military on Sunday downed a drone carrying crystal meth that was flying into Jordanian territory from neighbouring Syria, the state news agency Petra reported. War-torn Syria has become a hub for a multi-billion-dollar drugs trade, with Jordan a main transit route to the oil-rich Gulf states for a Syrian-made amphetamine known as captagon, Western anti-narcotics officials and Washington say.Citing a source within the Jordanian armed forces, the state agency said in a statement the drone was "taken control of and downed". The Jordanian military has previously downed drones from Syria carrying narcotics or weapons but has rarely identified seized drugs as crystal meth. Military and security officials from Jordan and Syria have met to discuss ways to curb the growing smuggling problem. Despite pledges by Damascus, Jordan says it has not seen any real attempt to clamp down on the illicit trade. There was no immediate comment from Syrian authorities. In an interview last week, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad denied Syria's role in the drug trade, saying that ending narcotics smuggling was a common interest that Syria shares with Arab countries.

Blasts rock pro-Iran missile stocks in Syria
Agence France Presse August 13, 2023
Violent explosions were heard from missile stockpiles of pro-Iran militias east of Syria's capital Damascus before dawn on Sunday, a war monitor said. Residents of the Damascus region heard the blasts which came from "the warehouses of pro-Iran militias" in a mountainous area east of the capital, said the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which relies on a wide network of sources inside Syria. "We don't know if it was from an air strike or ground operation," Observatory head Rami Abdel Rahman told AFP. During more than a decade of war in Syria, neighboring Israel has launched hundreds of air strikes on Syrian territory, primarily targeting Iran-backed forces and Hezbollah fighters, as well as Syrian army positions. Syria's official news agency SANA said during the night that "the sounds of explosions" had been heard on the outskirts of Damascus. Four Syrian soldiers and two Iran-backed fighters were killed last Monday in pre-dawn Israeli air strikes near Damascus, the Observatory said at the time, in the latest deadly Israeli air raid to hit war-torn Syria's capital. The air strikes targeted Syrian regime forces, as well as military positions and weapons depots used by armed groups supported by Tehran, the monitor said. With Iranian as well as Russian support, the government of Syria's President Bashar al-Assad has clawed back much of the territory it had lost to rebels early in the conflict, which broke out in 2011 and has pulled in foreign powers and global jihadists. Israel rarely comments on strikes it carries out on targets in Syria, but it has repeatedly said it would not allow its arch foe Iran to expand its footprint there. Syria's war has killed more than half a million people and displaced millions.

IS claims responsibility for attack that killed 33 Syrian troops, and vows to keep fighting
Associated Press/August 13, 2023
The Islamic State group claimed responsibility for an ambush in eastern Syria that killed and wounded dozens of soldiers as opposition activists said the death toll rose to at least 33 as some of the wounded succumbed to their injuries. The attack is among the deadliest to be carried out this year by the extremists. IS sleeper cells still carry deadly attacks despite their defeat in Syria in 2019. The group once controlled large parts of Syria and Iraq where they declared a caliphate in 2014. The Friday night statement said IS fighters ambushed two army trucks in the eastern province of Deir el-Zour using different kinds of weapons. IS claimed that 40 members of the Syrian military were killed and 10 were wounded. The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said the death toll reached 33 Saturday. Another activist collective that covers news in eastern Syria put the death toll at 35 adding that all of the dead were members of the Syrian army's 17th Division. The Observatory said the toll could rise further as some of the soldiers are in critical condition. "Let the whole world know that our allegiance to our leaders is practiced with deeds and not words and our Jihad is going on until Doomsday," IS said. In one of their deadliest recent attacks, IS sleeper cells attacked workers collecting truffles near the central town of Sukhna in February, killing at least 53 people — mostly workers but also some Syrian government security forces. Last week, IS announced the death in Syria of its little-known leader, Abu al-Hussein al-Husseini al-Qurayshi — who had headed the extremist organization since November — and named his successor. He was the fourth leader to be killed since its founder, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, was killed in 2019 by U.S. troops in northwest Syria.

Rains and floods kill 55 people in Bangladesh since early August
LBCI/August 13, 2023
At least 55 people have been killed due to heavy rains and landslides that have hit areas in Bangladesh over the past two weeks, affecting more than a million individuals, according to officials on Sunday. Floods and landslides since August 1 have caused the death of 21 people in Cox's Bazar, 19 in Chittagong, 10 in Bandarban, and five in Rangamati, according to local authorities in the four most affected regions. Azizur Rahman, an official from the Bangladesh Meteorological Department, stated to Agence France-Presse that these rains are "some of the heaviest in recent years."He explained that the amount of rainfall on August 7 alone reached 312 millimeters. Officials reported that heavy rainfall continued until August 11, leading to widespread flooding. River waters overflowed, submerging hundreds of villages. The exact number of casualties could not be verified until the waters began to recede. South Asian regions witness about 80 percent of their annual rainfall during the monsoon season, which is accompanied by fatalities due to flooding and landslides. Rainfall amounts are difficult to predict and vary from year to year, but scientists affirm that climate change makes monsoon rains more intense and erratic, while deforestation and construction on hillsides intensify flooding. Shahin Ibrahim, a local official in Cox's Bazar district, told AFP that floods affected "about 600,000 people," and at least 21 lost their lives. Bangladesh hosts around one million Rohingya refugees who fled from Myanmar due to military repression, and they currently reside in camps established in the deforested forests and hillsides of Cox's Bazar. A refugee affairs official clarified that four of them, including a mother and child, were killed. Around 2,000 individuals who were at risk of landslides in the camps were relocated to safer areas. Waters also inundated hundreds of villages in Chittagong, the second-largest city in Bangladesh and home to its largest port, due to floods that residents claimed were the worst in decades. Local official Abdul Basher Mohammad Fakhrul Islam told AFP that "the floods caused damage to around 5,000 thatched-roof houses."He added, "At least 19 people were killed by the floods. We retrieved some bodies from the Sangu River as the water receded in the past few days. Approximately 450,000 people were affected by the floods." He noted that mobility between Chittagong and Cox's Bazar was disrupted for several days, and a recently constructed railway bridge suffered damage. Sudden major floods were caused by rains in the Bandarban hill region, where the official Shah Majahidul Islam announced the death of at least 10 people. Administrative official Mashraf said that five people were killed in the Rangamati hill area, where heavy rainfall displaced around 23,000 individuals. Shahina Sultana, another official, stated that Bangladeshi authorities sent relief and food assistance to the hardest-hit areas, while the search for missing individuals continues. She emphasized that "the government is doing everything possible to help the people."
NNA/August 13, 2023
The Spanish police, in cooperation with Europol and the German Federal Police, managed to dismantle a criminal organization that smuggled Syrian migrants from Lebanon to Spain, Germany and Norway across 3 continents, according to AFP.
The police said in a statement today, Sunday, that it had "dismantled in Spain the logistical structure of a criminal organization specialized in smuggling Syrian migrants," and subsequently arrested 19 people on suspicion of "belonging to a criminal organization and involvement in illegal immigration," and placed 6 of them in pretrial detention. The Spanish police explained that "the migration route passed through three continents, Asia, Africa, and Europe, and by air, sea and land," and each immigrant paid the smugglers an amount of "20,000 euros."
It also indicated that the network cooperated with criminal organizations in other countries, and was receiving money through “transfers” that enabled it to earn about 2.5 million euros.According to the agency, preliminary investigations showed that the migrants were departing from Lebanon, passing through Beirut airport, to Egypt for 4,000 euros. From there, the Syrians travel overland to Libya, Tunisia, and Algeria for 3,500 euros. From there they reach Spain and cross by car to Madrid, Cuenca, and Toledo, where they stay in hiding for €250 a week until their paper work is finalized.

13 killed in two attacks by jihadists in north-eastern Nigeria
LBCI/August 13, 2023
Three soldiers and ten farmers were killed on Saturday in separate attacks carried out by suspected militants belonging to the Boko Haram group in northeastern Nigeria, according to local militias cited by AFP on Sunday. Officials told AFP that Islamic fighters launched an attack on a military base near the city of Konduga in Borno state on Saturday morning, leading to a firefight with the soldiers. Militia leader Ibrahim Liman explained, "Boko Haram terrorists took advantage of the darkness and cornfields to launch their attack." He added, "The soldiers engaged in a fierce battle, killing three soldiers before eliminating the attackers and forcing them to retreat." Another militia commander in the region, Babakura Kolo, confirmed the attack and its toll. Earlier on Saturday afternoon, Boko Haram jihadists shot and killed ten farmers after rounding them up while they were working in their field in a village on the outskirts of Maiduguri, the capital of Borno state. Omar Ari, a member of the militia who helped evacuate the bodies, confirmed, "The ten farmers were shot dead." Regarding the second attack, Liman stated that four other farmers remain missing, confirming the death toll. Boko Haram and the Islamic State West Africa Province increasingly target loggers, herders, farmers, and fishermen in northeastern Nigeria, accusing them of spying and sharing information with the military and militias. This conflict, ongoing for fourteen years, has led to a severe humanitarian crisis in northeastern Nigeria and in southern Niger, western Chad, and northern Cameroon, where the insurgency has spread. In July 2015, the four countries established a multinational joint force of 8,500 troops to combat the jihadists. However, these regional efforts to fight the jihadists may be hampered by the recent coup in Niger and the threat of military intervention by the Economic Community of West African States to overthrow the military council.

Path to peace: Egypt hosts trilateral summit amidst regional challenges
LBCI/August 13, 2023
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi will host a trilateral summit in El-Alamein, bringing King Abdullah II of Jordan and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas together. The summit follows in the wake of the Egyptian-Jordanian-Palestinian tripartite meeting held in Sharm El-Sheikh in January and the El-Alamein summit of Palestinian factions in July. Will Cairo succeed in unifying visions to reach a just peace based on the two-state solution amid the regional and international political moves? The discussions, expected to take place at the trilateral summit, will delve into the latest developments in the Palestinian cause, emphasizing coordination and cooperation on multiple Arab, regional, and international levels. The Palestinian Ambassador to Egypt, Diab Al-Louh, underscored the significance of continuous consultation and collaboration among the leaders to address the evolving political landscape. The leaders will explore avenues to handle regional and international shifts while rallying international support to alleviate the Palestinian people's suffering and ensure their legitimate national rights, including freedom, independence, and establishing their state with East Jerusalem as its capital. The timing of this summit holds particular significance against the backdrop of escalating instability in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. It comes two weeks after the Palestinian factions convened in El-Alamein, with the participation of President Abbas, to further dialogue on various issues and matters to end the state of division and restore Palestinian national unity. Moreover, the recent meeting between President el-Sisi and his Palestinian counterpart highlights Egypt's commitment to facilitating constructive diplomatic efforts. El-Alamein summit coincides with ongoing negotiations for normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia, in which the latter aims to achieve substantial concessions from Israel to support the establishment of a Palestinian state. However, these efforts face counterbalances, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's steadfast refusal to entertain any concessions that could lead to a two-state solution. Netanyahu's stance, compounded by his government's religious-extremist composition, adds complexity to the regional landscape.

Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on August 13-14/2023
Will Congress Save Itself by Stopping the Iran Deal and Biden's Imperial Presidency?
Pete Hoekstra/Gatestone Institute/August 13, 2023
The continuing trend of broad expansions of presidential powers... is eroding the powers of the legislative branch.
Constitutionally, the vital decisions of government were not to be decided by the stroke of a pen from the president, with no congressional action from the duly elected representatives of the people.
By addressing the Iran nuclear deal that is not yet dead, Congress can reclaim some of
its constitutionally mandated powers by insisting that the initial steps taken regarding any Iran deal be reviewed by Congress, then followed up with strong action, as powerfully initiated by House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul.
Regrettably, Congress has allowed its authority to be eroded for decades by the Executive Branch, and has insufficiently guarded its power under both Republican and Democratic administrations.
Congress should be particularly concerned that the administration might use extraordinary means to bypass and implement a nuclear agreement without congressional review, as is required by federal statute in the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act of 2015.
This legislation passed the House with 400 "yes" votes to 25 "no" votes, and passed the Senate with a vote of 98 - 1, a remarkably strong bipartisan response indicating deep support by Congress for exercising its rightful role in treaties and international agreements.
[I]t is abundantly clear that Congress wants -- and needs -- to play a role in any future agreement. Given the uncertainty on whether Biden will follow the review steps outlined and required in the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act, now is the time for Congress to assert itself fully and forcefully into this process.
Congress should indicate, clearly and immediately, that any perceived violation of the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act will be met by the strongest means possible under the constitution: full use of the courts and the power of the purse to defend its position.
A potential Iran deal that Congress has clearly signaled it wants to reject is a perfect opportunity for Congress to reassert some of the authority it has tossed away or lost.
To make sure its voice is heard, Congress needs urgently to begin preparing for the fight that might materialize between the Executive and Legislative branches.
Congress must stop major national security decisions from being unilaterally imposed by an imperial president.
The continuing trend of broad expansions of presidential powers... is eroding the powers of the legislative branch. Constitutionally, the vital decisions of government were not to be decided by the stroke of a pen from the president, with no congressional action from the duly elected representatives of the people. Pictured: The Capitol Building in Washington, D.C. (Photo by Samuel Corum/Getty Images)
The United States, rather than maintaining its status as a republic, has been backsliding toward a monarchy, according to a 2020 report by then-Cato Institute Constitutional researcher Trevor Burrus. The continuing trend of broad expansions of presidential powers, Burrus notes, is eroding the powers of the legislative branch. Two examples are the Obama Administration's 2016 "Dear Colleague" letter that had the effect of changing the definition of gender for choosing what bathroom one wished, and President Donald Trump's 2018 imposition of steel tariffs in the name of national security, a decision that was upheld in court.
Historically, these types of issues would have been debated vigorously in Congress, then the House and Senate would pass legislation setting the framework on these issues. Constitutionally, the vital decisions of government were not to be decided by the stroke of a pen from the president, with no congressional action from the duly elected representatives of the people.
This trend of expanding presidential authorities has continued under President Joe Biden. Recently, Biden tried to implement a massive student loan forgiveness program, but Congress refreshingly reasserted its authority: The House passed a resolution to block Biden's student loan cancellation effort.
A few weeks later, on June 30, the U.S. Supreme Court agreed that Biden's proposed student loan forgiveness program was indeed an overreach of presidential authority. In a 6-3 ruling, the Court determined that under the law, the president did not have the ability to cancel up to $430 billion in student loans. The decision upheld the constitutionally mandated separation of powers. The decision also determined that congressional legislation previously passed into law, and the president had unilaterally determined granted him the authority, did not in fact give the Executive Branch the sweeping authority it had attempted to seize with its loan forgiveness program. Significantly, the Supreme Court decision maintained the checks and balances of power between the congressional and executive branches of government.
By addressing the Iran nuclear deal that is not yet dead, Congress can reclaim some of
its constitutionally mandated powers by insisting that the initial steps taken regarding any Iran deal be reviewed by Congress, then followed up with strong action, as powerfully initiated by House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul.
Letters of warning to the Executive Branch are just one instrument Congress has in its toolbox to control the excesses of the Executive Branch, especially when these letters are backed by Congress's "power of the purse." This means that all federal spending must originate in the House, and no federal dollars can be spent until legislation is passed by both bodies of Congress and signed into law by the President.
Regrettably, Congress has allowed its authority to be eroded for decades by the Executive Branch, and has insufficiently guarded its power under both Republican and Democratic administrations.
These examples of controlling or influencing presidential authority -- going to the courts and the power of the purse -- could play out in a significant way in the coming months.
Biden may reportedly be close to finalizing "agreements" with Iran on a prisoner swap in exchange for $6 billion in frozen Iranian oil funds and on its nuclear program to have legitimately as many nuclear weapons as it likes.
Congress should be particularly concerned that the administration might use extraordinary means to bypass and implement a nuclear agreement without congressional review, as is required by federal statute in the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act of 2015.
This legislation passed the House with 400 "yes" votes to 25 "no" votes, and passed the Senate with a vote of 98 - 1, a remarkably strong bipartisan response indicating deep support by Congress for exercising its rightful role in treaties and international agreements.
While it is unclear at this time whether there will be a new agreement between the United States and Iran in the near term, it is abundantly clear that Congress wants -- and needs -- to play a role in any future agreement. Given the uncertainty on whether Biden will follow the review steps outlined and required in the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act, now is the time for Congress to assert itself fully and forcefully into this process.
Congress should indicate, clearly and immediately, that any perceived violation of the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act will be met by the strongest means possible under the constitution: full use of the courts and the power of the purse to defend its position.
A potential Iran deal that Congress has clearly signaled it wants to reject is a perfect opportunity for Congress to reassert some of the authority it has tossed away or lost.
To make sure its voice is heard, Congress needs urgently to begin preparing for the fight that might materialize between the Executive and Legislative branches.
Congress must stop major national security decisions from being unilaterally imposed by an imperial president.
**Peter Hoekstra is a Distinguished Senior Fellow at Gatestone Institute. He was US Ambassador to the Netherlands during the Trump administration. He also served 18 years in the U.S. House of Representatives representing the Second District of Michigan and served as Chairman and Ranking Member of the House Intelligence Committee.
© 2023 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Syria becoming a key battleground in US-Russia rivalry
Maria Maalouf/Arab News/August 13, 2023
A growing strategic consensus gaining influence inside Washington suggests that Russian President Vladimir Putin is stepping up the pressure on the US in Syria in a bid to force American troops out of the country. And some US military experts are blaming the Biden administration for being too timid to confront the Russians.
To realize his goals in Syria, Putin is escalating tensions with the US troops that have been deployed in the country since 2015. The Biden administration must clearly articulate its strategic goals in Syria. President Joe Biden must find ways to contact Putin and convey to him America’s anger regarding the Russian threats to the lives of Americans in Syria.
The EU can mediate between Russia and the US as far as their policies in Syria are concerned. This is the only way to stymie any combined Russian-Iranian-Syrian attempts to expel US forces from the country. Realistically, there is little cooperation or coordination between the US and Russia in fighting terror groups in Syria. Washington’s strategic dilemma stems from the simple political fact that, so far, Biden has failed to tell Putin to stop Russia’s provocative actions against US military personnel.
Mona Yacoubian, vice president of the US Institute of Peace’s Middle East and North Africa Center, believes that Putin’s frustrations over Ukraine are to blame. “We have seen, clearly since at least March of this year, a clear escalation of tensions, driven largely by Russian provocations of the US in Syria,” she said. “Those heightened tensions derive directly from the war in Ukraine, where I think the Russians are looking to stick a finger in the US eye, and provoke the US to the extent that they can in a place that is a bit removed from the Ukraine conflict arena itself.”
Those who criticize Biden for his failure to challenge Putin say the US leader has shown little strategic interest in Syria. According to Mary Beth Long, assistant secretary of defense during the George W. Bush administration: “What really happens is, you issue orders to your pilots and NATO folks, to basically be careful and do everything possible not to allow them to provoke you because they want an incident in order to have an excuse to escalate. So, what we really do, although we don’t admit it, is we put our airmen and our sailors at higher risk, because they basically have to absorb these things. It’s a safety issue; it’s an emotional issue. It’s tough on these guys.”
Between March and July, several near misses took place between US and Russian military aircraft in the skies over Syria. In June, Russian aircraft intentionally crossed the flight paths of US warplanes. Late last month, Russian fighters fired flares that damaged a US MQ-9 Reaper drone.
Syria can be a game-changer for the American-Russian global and regional competition going on at present.
At present, the strategic balance between the US and Russia favors Moscow. The number of American troops in Syria is low, at about 900. Russia has at least 6,000 soldiers in the country. Armenia, a former Soviet republic, is helping the military effort. Russia controls vast areas of Syria, which it administers jointly with the government of Bashar Assad. The US operates from territory it captured from Daesh.
There are also six strategic problems that President Biden has to deliberate on with his top advisers in reference to the Russian-Iranian aggression versus American troops in Syria. First, what will Turkiye do regarding the increase in assaults on US forces in Syria? Biden must consult with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on these Russian-Iranian moves. Second, what role have the Kurdish militias been playing in this anti-American escalation in Syria? Third, is the Russian-Iranian campaign against American troops deployed in Syria the cause of the reduced efforts to defeat Daesh?
Fourth, will Putin allow for direct military skirmishes between Iranian and American forces in Syria? Putin can pressure Iran not to be engaged in such fighting. Fifth, how are Russia and Iran assisting the Assad regime economically in a broader campaign to bolster the government? Finally, how will the increasing Iranian-Russian influence in Syria — through their joint efforts to oust America — affect and impact Lebanon? Will such a military tactic enhance further the power of Hezbollah?
The possibility that the US and Russia will go to war over Syria is slim. Biden has few options. He is constrained by the strategic limitations imposed by his predecessor, Donald Trump, who withdrew most US troops from the country. America cannot arm many of the anti-Assad groups, as the Obama administration did. Whether Russia and Iran use Syria as a constant threat to American forces is a big political and military question and challenge that will be tested in the next few weeks. Syria can be a game-changer for the American-Russian global and regional competition going on at present.
Putin, meanwhile, can rely on support from Iran and its militias to challenge the US presence. It is also unknown whether future confrontations will be limited to the air or will evolve dangerously in other military arenas. US intelligence must also monitor the Wagner Group’s activities to guard against potential acts of sabotage or aggression against America and its allies.
Ultimately, it is Putin who will call the shots as he sets out to make it more difficult and burdensome for the US to be an active player on the Syrian scene. Another conclusion is that the situation in Syria is fluid. America can resist the encroachment against its forces in Syria. It is difficult to make predictions with any degree of confidence about the future of American, Russian and Iranian troops in Syria. Biden is vulnerable in Syria, as is Putin. Syria will determine the level of authority, competence and leadership of both Biden and Putin.
*Maria Maalouf is a Lebanese journalist, broadcaster, publisher, and writer. Twitter: @bilarakib

How Iraq can boost its economic recovery
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/August 13, 2023
Iraq’s economy has been showing positive signs of recovery. Baghdad needs to capitalize on this by diversifying its economy, attracting foreign investment and spending on rebuilding its infrastructure in order to create jobs and further improve its economic situation.
Iraq has great potential for attracting foreign investment. This can be partially accomplished by strengthening the country’s bilateral and multilateral economic and political ties. For example, it was a step in the right direction when Iraq in June signed 11 memorandums of understanding with Egypt covering several sectors, including tourism, finance, administrative development and diplomacy.
This development could also help address Iraq’s electricity shortage and ultimately reduce its reliance on electricity imports from Iran. According to the Iraqi prime minister’s media office, the two sides explored ways to “overcome administrative and financing obstacles, optimizing the federal budget to advance vital infrastructure projects in the electricity sector. During the meeting, a comprehensive review of the projects was conducted, focusing on advanced infrastructure projects related to electric power production, distribution, and private sector initiatives.”
This positive development provides an opportunity for many Egyptian companies to invest in Iraq. Iraq can use its oil in exchange for other services that Egypt can provide, such as participating in the construction of its infrastructure.
In addition, Iraq has entered into a multilateral cooperation agreement with Jordan and Egypt, which focuses on deeper economic integration. This alliance will definitely yield gains for each country in various fields, such as the commercial, security and financial sectors.
Another positive development was the multibillion-dollar agreement that was signed between the Iraqi government and France’s Total Energies last month. This will also help address Iraq’s long-standing electricity shortage. The $27 billion agreement is considered the largest foreign investment in Iraq’s history. It is worth noting that, as part of the project, Saudi Arabia’s ACWA Power will build a 1,000 megawatt solar power plant in central Iraq.
This development will reduce Iraq’s dependence on gas imports from Iran and alleviate tensions between Washington and Baghdad over Tehran.
Iraq has to obtain a sanctions waiver from the US in order to import electricity and to pay Iran. It heavily relies on imported gas, particularly from Iran, in order to meet the demands of its population. Baghdad last year agreed to repay $1.6 billion of debt to the Iranian government in order to ensure a steady gas supply through the summer. It should be noted that Iraq itself holds about 111 trillion cubic feet of proven gas reserves, the 12th most in the world. However, years of conflict have prevented Iraq from investing in its gas industry.
It is important to point out that Iraq’s alliances with Jordan and Egypt should not be viewed as competition for the relationship between Baghdad and the Gulf states. It is in Iraq’s interest that its regional policy is based on pursuing diplomacy, dialogue and common interests in order to strengthen bilateral and multilateral relationships with the Gulf states as well.
The Gulf states can play a critical role in improving Iraq’s economy and bringing more stability and security.
The Gulf states can play a critical role in improving Iraq’s economy and bringing more stability and security to Baghdad. To accomplish this objective, Iraq’s regional policy ought to be grounded in respecting the national and security interests of the Gulf states. Saudi Arabia and the UAE last month reached an agreement with Iraq to devote $6 billion in order to support investments in Iraq, as well as to create business councils.
Another effective method to improve the economy is lowering unemployment in the country by creating jobs. Iraq can use part of its oil revenues to fund reconstruction efforts, which would not only improve its infrastructure but would also inevitably lead to the creation of jobs. The Iraqi parliament in June approved a development projects budget of 198.9 trillion dinars ($153 billion) for 2023 to enhance services and rebuild its infrastructure. Deputy Speaker Shakhwan Abdullah Ahmed said in a statement: “Basic services must be secured, infrastructure rehabilitated, employment and work opportunities provided, affected areas reconstructed, and the suffering of displaced people ended.”
The political establishment ought to ensure that division or corruption does not prevent such an invaluable and critical project from materializing.
In addition, it is vital to Iraq for the government to diversify its economy. Iraq, OPEC’s second-largest oil producer after Saudi Arabia, unfortunately heavily relies on oil exports for its revenues. Oil exports account for nearly 95 percent of Iraq’s federal budget revenue. Such dependence on oil puts the country at great risk when prices plummet, as occurred in 2020.
Economic diversification can be accomplished in Iraq by strengthening the private sector, investing in infrastructure and other industries, promoting tourism and, more importantly, investing in renewable energy.
The Gulf states can be great models for Iraq. Economic diversification has been the goal of all Gulf economies since they began pumping oil out of the ground. Despite the enormous riches “black gold” provides, successive Gulf Cooperation Council governments have rightly long been cognizant of the fact that oil wealth cannot last forever. Renewable energy also helps reduce fluctuations related to the energy process.
In a nutshell, Iraq’s economy is showing positive signs. Baghdad needs to prioritize rebuilding its infrastructure, creating jobs, attracting foreign investment, diversifying its economy away from oil, investing in renewable energy and building strong cooperation with other Arab nations, particularly the Gulf states.
• Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian-American political scientist.
Twitter: @Dr_Rafizadeh

What next for Turkiye’s ailing opposition?
Yasar Yakis/Arab News/August 13, 2023
The post-national elections era in Turkiye has become complicated because of the failure of the so-called Table of Six coalition. A new set of elections — this time at the municipal level — will be held on March 31 next year. Two dynamics are likely to play a role in these local elections. One is the set of problems stemming from the internal structure of the main opposition Republican People’s Party, which is known as the CHP. The other is the absence of genuine solidarity among the opposition parties.
The CHP is a political party established in 1923, a few months before the proclamation of the republic, but it is the continuation of a party established in 1889, during the Ottoman era.
Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, the founder of the Republic of Turkey, wanted to make the party a precursor to the regime he was trying to establish, but after he passed away rivalry grew among the leading members of the party.
Multiparty democracy was introduced in Turkiye in 1946, 23 years after the proclamation of the republic. Military coups interrupted democracy several times.
Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the present leader of the CHP, is eager to remain at the helm of the party despite widespread opposition. By making alliances with other splinter parties, he has diluted the social democratic ideology of the CHP. He will perhaps now need to return to the original factory settings of the party.
For the sake of embracing larger numbers of voters, Kilicdaroglu moved toward conservatism and away from social democracy, which was the main ideology of the party. But he had to bear in mind that the conservative segment of the Turkish electorate generally votes for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s AK Party, so there is no room there for the CHP.
The CHP is lacking strong leadership. Kilicdaroglu comes from bureaucracy. His belonging to the Alawite sect is also considered a minus by the majority Sunni population of Turkiye. He has lost all the elections he has participated in. The electoral support for his party has stagnated at about 25 percent. Many recipes proposed by the elders of the CHP did not change the situation.
Kilicdaroglu’s leadership was particularly badly bruised by his failure in May’s general elections. Ekrem Imamoglu, the present metropolitan mayor of Istanbul, has prepared himself first for the chairmanship of the party, then for the presidency of the republic.
Major metropolitan agglomerations are at present held by the opposition, but Erdogan tries hard to win them by using all tools available to the government.
In the last municipal elections, Imamoglu became the mayor of Istanbul mainly thanks to the Kurds who live there, but it is unclear whether he will be able to emerge victorious this time as a result of the fragmented votes of the CHP. He intends to use another victory in Istanbul next year as a stepping stone toward the presidential post in the 2029 elections.
The CHP has ceased being a political party that can move the people to adhere to social democratic ideals.
Apart from the CHP, there is only Meral Aksener’s IYI Party that has to be considered seriously among the opposition. During the run-up to the last general elections, she made an unnecessary move to leave the Table of Six because she thought that Kilicdaroglu was not the most suitable candidate for the presidency. She cited several reasons for her move, including the fact he is an Alawite, that Kilicdaroglu had won none of the previous elections he had participated in, and that he was not a leader who could motivate the masses to get behind him. Her choice for the leadership of the CHP was Imamoglu.
However, Aksener changed her mind within three days and came back to the Table of Six. Her move must have cost her a great deal of support. It is now unclear whether the Table of Six can or should be revived. Her declared aim was to change the presidential system of Turkiye and to become prime minister.
Late former Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit has been the only leader to blow some dynamism and fresh air into the party. In other words, the CHP has been slowly weakening. Its progress has ground to a halt under Kilicdaroglu. The party that was established by Ataturk is now in a helpless situation.
The CHP has ceased being a political party that can move the people to adhere to social democratic ideals. Instead, it has become a party that aims at the lowest expectations of the people. Because of the absence of an ideology, the CHP is unable to propose to its electorate a new set of targets and still hesitates regarding what it should do for the forthcoming local elections.
Erdogan’s AK Party considers democracy to be a tool to ratify its programs every four or five years. Former President Abdullah Gul said on one occasion that “democracy is not only the ballot boxes. It is more than that.” Fundamental rights and freedoms, respect for human rights, and freedom of conscience are also indispensable parts.
While Erdogan has announced a general mobilization for next year’s local elections, the opposition is still busy trying to devise a strategy.
It is unclear whether the Table of Six has already been dissolved. Some believe that it was a coalition formed for the May 2023 elections and, now that those elections are over, its constituent parts may not come together again for the next local elections — or they may even establish other coalitions.
What is evident is that the opposition CHP party established by Ataturk is ailing.
• Yasar Yakis is a former foreign minister of Turkiye and founding member of the ruling AK Party.
Twitter: @yakis_yasar